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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-12-16 | Astros v. Red Sox -133 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
964 Houston at BostonBoth starters have struggled this year but there is value on the Red Sox here. Houston just went 16 innings with the Indians last night and the bullpen as you would expect was used heavily. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Astros are 31-77 on the road after using five or more pitchers. They are also just 3-17 facing a lefty after squaring off with three right handed starters. Boston has an elite bullpen, which is a huge advantage in this contest. With the much better hitting team, playing at home, you can say the Price is Right!PLAY BOSTON |
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05-10-16 | Rays -125 v. Mariners | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
973 Tampa Bay at SeattleKing Felix got the win over the Rays yesterday, but we favor Tampa Bay to bounce back tonight. Smiley continues to be underrated in the betting markets and we prefer the hitting of the Rays here in this lefty on lefty starter comparison.Seattle is only 40-58 playing at home against a team with a worse record, according to our friends at SportsDataBase.com. As you would assume a great many of those games Seattle was installed as the home favorite, which makes those stats even more alarming.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-06-16 | Dodgers +121 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
979 Los Angeles at TorontoShould be a terrific pitching matchup here as Maeda takes on Stroman. But we see some value with the Dodgers as Maeda has yet to allow a run on the road this year while Marcus has been simply average in the dome. Too much value on the dog here to not take the generous plus money with a pitcher that remains under the radar in  the betting markets.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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05-04-16 | Cubs -125 v. Pirates | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
953 Cubs at PiratesThis game starts early so I’m limiting the analysis. Basically you won’t find the Cubs in this price range very often. Chicago is 40-16 when favored after allowing 6 or fewer hits. Which means the bullpen is set up well. The Pirates hit lefties well but the Cubs are playing great baseball right now.PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-03-16 | Nationals +111 v. Royals | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
929 Washington at Kansas CityTanner Roark is part of an outstanding Washington organization that has been so deep in starting pitching that he has remained under the radar. The Nationals are so deep the number one pitching prospect in baseball can’t get the call-up, and others on the MLB roster are forced to pitch out of the pen. Roark has seized the opportunity this year and has been amazing. Chris Young because of his height has been a somewhat successful journeyman that fits this ballpark perfectly. But he has really struggled to hold his place in the rotation this year, and the offense has struggled all season.Washington is the better team, with the far better pitcher, and is installed as an underdog. Case closed.PLAY WASHINGTON |
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04-30-16 | Indians v. Phillies +120 | 3-4 | Win | 120 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
980 Cleveland at PhiladelphiaWrong team favored here in our estimation as Eickhoff has already surpassed Bauer in our starter rankings. The Phillies are playing confident ball right now and according to Sports DataBase.com Philadelphia is 42-22 after a walk off win. Considering how bad this squad has been the past few years that is a very impressive stat. Better starter, momentum and home field give the Phillies the edge.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-29-16 | Astros v. A's +124 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 124 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
926 Houston at Oakland The rest advantage goes to the Astros here after having the day off while Oakland travels back from Detroit. But Houston hasn’t performed well in this situation. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Astros are 3-16 on the road vs a lefty after facing three straight righties. To make matters worse it’s a lefty the Astros have never faced.Sean Manaea a prized pitching prospect for the A’s is making his major league debut. We have been excited to see this big lefty with outstanding minor league numbers make the majors. He’s instantly a major pitching rotation upgrade for Oakland, and we have had great success in the past riding these young talented lefties the first time through the league. Our initial situation happens tonight in a home dog role. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-27-16 | A's v. Tigers -110 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
918 Oakland at Detroit The A’s have been very impressive on the road this year but we are siding with the reasonably priced Tigers at home today. As per our friends at SportsDataBase.com the A’s are just 12-33 as a dog when facing an opposing starter with an ERA above 4. They are also 20-40 as a dog when playing a team with a worse record.The starters play out as a virtual tie with the home field edge of Verlander. Detroit has the much superior offense while the A’s have the better relievers. Detroit’s home offense is one of the best in baseball and it’s rare we get a number one starter at this price at home.PLAY DETROIT |
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04-26-16 | Reds +141 v. Mets | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
953 Cincinnati at NY Mets Big underdog price here for the Reds and a pitcher we really like in Brandon Finnegan. He owns a sizable edge over the Mets Bartolo Colon who has made a career out of being a journeyman. We also get the Reds #2 starter as a dog against the #4 Colon. The Mets are not a home favorite we trust with this pitching matchup.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-25-16 | Cardinals +108 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-12 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
905 St Louis at Arizona Only the slightest of starting pitcher edges here for Greinke as Garcia has been dominant when healthy. While the Cardinals enjoyed a comeback win over the Padres yesterday, the Diamondbacks used eight pitchers in an extra inning affair with the Pirates. According to SportsDataBase.com the Cardinals are 56-30 after a comeback victory. With Garcia in excellent form we will side with the underdog Cards here.PLAY ST LOUIS |
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04-23-16 | Mariners +116 v. Angels | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
927 Seattle at LA AngelsHuge starting pitching mismatch here as Felix is still a highly rated starter and Santiago isn’t highly thought of. The fact that Hector is the number three starter in this rotation tells us all we need to know about the Angels starting rotation. Felix has gotten off to a dominating start by looking at traditional numbers. But advanced stats show he’s starting to age. The key here is those stories about his demise have been overblown. Every pitcher who has put in the type of innings he has has to make adjustments. The ability to blow away the opposition is no longer consistent. But Felix has been able to adapt and become more of a pitcher and less a thrower. Too much of an overreaction here as we get Hernandez as a sizable underdog.PLAY SEATTLE |
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04-22-16 | Phillies +117 v. Brewers | 5-2 | Win | 117 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
955 Philadelphia at MilwaukeeSolid pitching advantage for the Phillies here as Nola is ranked above average and Davies below. With Davies unlikely to have success the Milwaukee bullpen will be put into play early. The Brewers used three relievers yesterday throwing 83 overall pitches. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com Milwaukee is 11-25 after losing by 5 or more runs. That’s a major negative for a bullpen that already has questions.Philadelphia had the day off yesterday and the Phillies have been very good after walk off wins posting a 41-21 record. They walked off against the Mets on Wednesday.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-19-16 | Rays v. Red Sox -104 | 3-0 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
922 Tampa Bay at BostonCheap price for the Red Sox at home while facing a much less challenging offense. Coming off the powerful profile of the Blue Jays to the National League type of baseball played by the Rays, gives the Red Sox an advantage here. According to SportsDataBase.com and the SDQL the Red Sox are 52-20 when playing at home after three straight quality starts. Considering that Boston has an elite bullpen now we can only expect that winning trend to continue. While we really like Drew Smyly facing the Red Sox in Fenway is a daunting task. Let’s back Boston as it continues this homestead against the traveling Rays.PLAY BOSTON |
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04-17-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 22 m | Show |
919 Toronto at BostonWe’ve had a really good feel for the series winning with the Red Sox the last two days. Today rather than taking a side we are going to take a good luck at the total. These are two of the best hitting lineups in baseball, from a run scoring ability and in the power department. The two starting pitchers are rated low in our chart and both have had control problems which lead to more baserunners. This total s extremely low considering the ballpark and the reasons we have already stated.PLAY OVER |
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04-16-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
972 Toronto at BostonThe Red Sox were good to us yesterday and we come right back on them on Saturday. Starting pitching is a huge part of making baseball lines and this number has us stumped. The Red Sox are using a number 1 starter against the number 3 for the Blue Jays. Boston is playing at home with the far superior relief pitching. The Price/Estrada pitching duel is heavily favored for the host. We understand the lefty/righty situation for Toronto. There is simply too much value not to play on David Price in this range at home. PLAY BOSTON |
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04-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -113 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
918 Toronto at BostonNice starting pitcher edge for the Red Sox here as we have Dickey rated very poorly. He simply walks too many batters, and allowing extra baserunners in this building against this lineup is a disaster waiting to happen. In addition to a large edge at starter the Boston bullpen is one of the best in the majors this year. Nice cheap price on the home team tonight.PLAY BOSTON |
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04-14-16 | Giants v. Rockies +102 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 102 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
956 San Francisco at Colorado Rare chance to get a teams opening day starter in this price range against a number five starter from the opposition. Matt Cain has really struggled as of late and is lucky to still be in the league. Injuries and lack of production have really hurt this one time quality starter. In the rankings we use he is one of the five worst starting pitchers in baseball, and he has to pitch today in Coors Field. San Francisco isn’t as effective against lefties and De La Rosa is one of a few starters in baseball to figure out how to pitch in this park. Great value on the host. PLAY COLORADO |
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04-12-16 | Royals v. Astros -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
968 Kansas City at Houston Huge pitching advantage here for the Astros as Fiers is a proven commodity while Medlen is a question mark for the Royals. He was a quality starter before his well publicized arm problems but right now until we see a few regular season starts he’s a go against for us. Houston is terrific at home and dominated the game yesterday. The price is cheap in this one as we expect a repeat. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-11-16 | Brewers +162 v. Cardinals | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
903 Milwaukee at St Louis The dog is worth a shot here as the pitching matchup isn’t as one sided as many think. Jungman has better control, as Wacha walks more batters. Milwaukee has enough power to bring those added baserunners home. The Brewers are playing inspired ball right now while the Cards enter the season a bit overrated. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-08-16 | Astros v. Brewers +116 | 4-6 | Win | 116 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
978 Houston at Milwaukee Astros lose the DH by playing in a National League park which makes the offenses virtually even. The pitching edge goes to Chase Anderson who knows how to pitch in hitters ballparks after coming over from Arizona. Nice underdog price here against a popular favorite. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-07-16 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks +141 | 14-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
908 Chicago at Arizona The Cubs are already going to be overvalued to open the season. First because they are an extremely popular team, and because Chicago is one of the top teams in the league. But now off a sweep of the Angels the public is even more on the Cubs bandwagon. But we are really down on the Angels this year, so to have success at Anaheim isn't a surprise. Now the team travels to Arizona to take on a Diamondbacks team that has some talent themselves. Rubby De La Rosa is the slightly better pitcher here. Don't be fooled by the numbers from last year as Lackey came out of nowhere to pitch great. He's still a quality arm but Rubby is an underated starter. We have the Arizona starter slightly better, and that's not showing in this line. While the Cubs should be favored here, the line is way too high. Nice spot for the home dog here against a peaking foe. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-05-16 | Astros v. Yankees +119 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
922 Houston at NY Yankees Dallas Kuechel is making his first start of the season obviously, but he is doing so after winning the 2015 CY Young Award. We look to go against teams and players after winning postseason honors. He was dynamite at home last year but, his numbers were not as impressive when taking to the highway. Houston is thought by many to be the favorite in its division, but keep in mind that this is still a very young team. The Yankees are an afterthought in a lot of peoples minds, which is why they are a home underdog on opening day. But when healthy Tanaka is as good as any pitcher in the league. This is a nice spot to take plus money on an underrated squad.PLAY NY YANKEES |
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04-04-16 | Twins v. Orioles -125 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
964 Minnesota at Baltimore It says something about these teams when Santana and Tillman are your opening day starters. Neither pitching staff has a true ace but we believe Chris Tillman will be a money maker this year. We won’t be backing the Orioles often because of such poor team pitching, but this is a matchup which is underpriced in the markets. The combination of Santana and his wildness along with Baltimore's power makes this a solid play for the host. The Orioles are a high scoring power team, and when facing a pitcher with a base on balls tendency, we will back them.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-03-16 | Mets -114 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
907 NY Mets at Kansas City Too many reasons not to like the Mets here. Obvious World Series revenge is a major point along with all the championship festivities for the host Royals. On the diamond New York sends Harvey to the mound which is a major edge over Volquez. Add in the fact that the Royals bullpen which has been dynamite over the years, may show some cracks. Closer Davis has lost 3 mph velocity on all his pitches in the spring which could be a precursor to an injury. The same thing showed a year ago with Holland and he missed a great deal of the season with Tommy John surgery. We really respect this Kansas City bunch but we do not expect them to even win the division this year.PLAY NY METS |
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10-30-15 | Royals v. Mets -142 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
906 Kansas City at New York Don’t write off the Mets just yet. This is still a team that outlasted the excellent National League playoff field to make it to the World Series. A team with a starting rotation others will drool over for the foreseeable future. A team that should be at a home run advantage now after playing in homer unfriendly Kauffman Stadium. Now that the the Mets have gotten a close look at how the Royals work offensively, we can see the Mets making a few changes to take advantage. While Syndergaard is known as a flame thrower, it’s harder to strikeout opponents not looking to swing for the fences. But he has enough talent to make the adjustments and we expect the Mets to grab this much needed third game of this series.PLAY NEW YORK |
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10-18-15 | Chicago Cubs v. New York Mets +154 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 154 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
958 Chicago at New York Silly line here with the Mets getting +155 in some places as a home dog. Syndergaard has been dynamite as of late and throws 100 mph. It won’t be fun for the Cubs batters with temperatures in the mid to lower 40’s tonight. Arrieta is having a magical season but he’s already thrown over 250 innings which is much higher than last season and almost three times as many innings as the year before. While he has been unhittable at times, his last couple starts show that he is tiring. With so much future money on the Cubs the books have to entice Mets bettors to try to even the books. We are major buyers.PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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10-06-15 | Houston Astros v. New York Yankees +102 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
932 Houston at NY Yankees Losing the division title to the Rangers was a big blow to the Astros chances of advancing far into the playoffs. Not only do they have to play this one off contest against the Yankees, but they must do so on the road. Believe it or not the Astros 33-48 road record was the absolute worst in the entire American League. So the team that faltered down the stretch because of experience now is put into its worst role in a do or die contest. No thank you. While Dallas Keuchel has been close to automatic pitching at home, its been a different story on the road. A 1.46 ERA at home as opposed to a 3.77 ERA and a 5-8 record away from Houston. To top it off he has never pitched in the postseason and he will be coming back on only three days rest. The Yankees have a lot of veterans on this team with a nice mix of youngsters. New York is a well balanced team with a winning record at home as well as the road. Tanaka had a winning record pitching both at home and on the road. He was a mainstay in the Japanese League and has pitching in this type of environment before. While Tanaka has battled injuries he returns for this game on his regular pitching schedule. PLAY NY YANKEES |
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09-28-15 | Cincinnati Reds +178 v. Washington Nationals | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
969 Cincinnati at Washington |
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09-25-15 | Texas Rangers +130 v. Houston Astros | 6-2 | Win | 130 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
925 Texas at Houston Simple handicap here as the Astros are in a must win situation and we want nothing to do with a team with that type of pressure. Houston had a huge lead in the division and is falling apart down the stretch. Young teams that have never felt this kind of pressure tend to fade quickly and that’s what’s happening right now with the Stros.Texas is playing free and easy right now just like Houston did in the first half of the season. The Rangers are a confident bunch after taking it to the Astros earlier in Arlington. We will back the hot confident team here in the underdog role.PLAY TEXAS |
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09-18-15 | Oakland A's +188 v. Houston Astros | 4-3 | Win | 188 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
977 Oakland at Houston Very simple handicap in this one. The A’s have nothing to play for and are a loose team. Not the same with the young Astros who are choking away a huge lead in the division. After being humiliated by in-state rival Texas we can’t see laying this type of number to anyone. Just because a team needs to win doesn’t mean it will, and these players have never felt this type of pressure. Houston has been excellent at home this year but that was when the team was playing with confidence. It’s not often you find a team on a 2-8 run with a non-elite pitcher laying this type of number.PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-15-15 | Detroit Tigers +155 v. Minnesota Twins | 5-4 | Win | 155 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
923 Detroit at Minnesota Despite the Tigers struggles, this line is simply too high based on the Twins need to win and catching Hughes in his first start off the DL. After an excellent start to the season Minnesota has returned to where we had expected them to perform before the season. The banked wins early in the year are enough to cash a season win over ticket for Minnesota backers, but they are being priced way too high here. Hughes has a 4.49 ERA on the season despite pitching half his games in a favorable park. He’s had major problems against Cabrera who has to be licking his chops at seeing Hughes. Detroit is ranked 5th in the league against righties while the Twins sit 26th. Simon has been quite inconsistent all year but even with a poor outing we feel the Tigers will score enough here to make this a game. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota Twins +120 v. Chicago White Sox | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
971 Minnesota at Chicago White Sox Because of time constraints the analysis will be extremely short. We prefer the Twins here with Milone who we feel matches up very well against this Chicago offense. The Twins hit lefties very well which is just the opposite of the White Sox. Nice value on the road dog here.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-09-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers +135 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
929 LA Dodgers at LA Angels Many times cappers base their entire handicap on the starting pitchers, which is why most people prefer to play favorites. But there is more to handicapping baseball than matching up starters. That’s exactly why we feel this underdog has terrific value. Matt Latos is having a terrible year by his own standards. In fact, he hasn’t put it together at any time this year regardless of the uniform he has worn. But his career stats override some of his 2015 numbers as he’s battled injuries all season. Which is why the Dodgers are such an underdog in this contest. But let’s look past Latos and see how these two teams have performed. The Dodgers have won eight straight meetings with the Angels and have won 14 of 16 overall. The Dodgers rank 3rd in baseball hitting right-handed starters and have a sizable edge over the Angels offense the past month.The Angels have fallen virtually out of playoff contention after a big run last month. This team is now playing .500 ball on the season and have not hit well for an extended period of time. Richards has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 18 innings and it’s clear he has hit a wall after coming back from his major knee injury a year ago. This line is way too high for an Angels team that continues to find ways to lose.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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09-08-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -117 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
965 Tampa Bay at Detroit |
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09-02-15 | Washington Nationals v. St. Louis Cardinals -115 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
960 Washington at St Louis Sometimes the betting public gets beat over the head with preconceived ideas and refuses to make adjustments. We’ve all done it and in retrospect we feel terrible. But continuing to do the same thing over and over is insane. Which brings us to the subject of the Washington Nationals. The Nats were one of my losing futures plays as I took them over 93 1/2 and 94 wins. How could you not when the team was to be healthy this year and the addition of Matt Scherzer. We’ll we now see that the lack of depth was overlooked and those we thought would be stars have regressed. Only Brice Harper offensively has dominated. So now that we know the Nats just aren’t that good, why is this line competitive. Michael Wacha is on the hill for the Cards who have featured depth all season long. The Cards have dealt much better with injuries this year and yet this team is 40 games above .500. St Louis has been lights out at home and here we have them as a small favorite over a team in a must win situation. We all have seen this story before. Lay it with the host.PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-01-15 | Detroit Tigers +154 v. Kansas City Royals | 6-5 | Win | 154 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
923 Detroit at Kansas City Short and sweet. We are going to ride the hot starter here as Verlander has posted an amazing 1.38 ERA in his last 7 starts. Coming off losing a no-hitter in the ninth inning we know he has been nipping at the bit to get back on the hill. We are well aware of the Tigers poor play as of late but Verlander is a clubhouse leader and we expect his team to be up for this game. Cueto hasn’t been overly impressive coming over to the American League which is very common for a senior circuit starter. While he has the name we have the starter pitching much better, and in a nice paying dog roll at that.PLAY DETROIT |
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08-29-15 | Houston Astros v. Minnesota Twins +126 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
968 Houston at Minnesota Taking a chance on the home dog here still fighting hard for the postseason. We always can find value on a pitcher such as Mike Pelfrey who isn’t a strikeout artist and never gets backing. But he continues to keep his team in games and that’s really all you are looking for in an underdog selection. This is the first game for Mike Fiers since his no-hitter his last time out. But keep in mind that was against the Dodgers, a National League team he knew well. We like to fade pitchers coming over to the AL from the NL and this is a terrific opportunity to do so. Two of our favorite situations occur tonight and we fully expect to cash this dog.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-28-15 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Mets OVER 7 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
925 Boston at NY Mets Tough to hang a total of 7 the way these two teams are hitting the ball. Over the last month these squads have been at the top of the league offensively. The Mets hit lefties better than right handed starters and Henry Owens hasn’t been impressive in his early MLB action. Matt Harvey is the reason why this number is so low but he’s off an extended rest period. When breaking down Harvey this season he’s been simply terrific going every 5 days, but has been beat up with more time between starts. When the Mets went to a six man rotation earlier in the season Harvey was the most outspoken. It’s clear whether it’s a physical issue or a mental one that Harvey isn’t himself with added rest.PLAY OVER |
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08-26-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Detroit Tigers -131 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
920 LA Angels at Detroit We came up a run short with the Tigers yesterday but tonight we get out money back. Detroit ranks 2nd in baseball against left handed starters and the Tigers are in good form offensively. The Angels broke out last night but that has been a rare occurrence in the month of August. Verlander has been bad for so long that it’s hard to back him at this juncture but that’s exactly what we are doing here. Take a look at his game logs for August again the pretty good hitting teams of Texas, Boston, Houston and Kansas City. How about a .214 opponent batting average a WHIP of 1.00 with an ERA of 2.00. His SO to BB ratio is 27-6. His last two starts in July were equally as good.So we are paying a discounted price to back Verlander who is in terrific form against a lefty the Tigers should pound. We don’t play many favorites but this one deserves our attention.PLAY DETROIT |
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08-25-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Detroit Tigers +106 | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
968 LA Angels at Detroit Short and simple here. We simply don’t trust the Angels in the road favorite role against a quality opponent. Weaver is pitching on fumes at the end of his career and his stuff isn’t strong enough to fool anyone. He’s never been a high strikeout pitcher but he was able to get by throwing in a good pitchers park and division. While Detroit also slightly favors the man on the mound we have serious questions about his declining rates. The Angels have played 22 games in the month of August and only twice did they score more than 5 runs in a game. This offense is struggling and it’s playoff hopes are dwindling.As opposed to the Angels the Tigers have surpassed 5 run six times this months including 10 and 15 run outputs. Simon is coming off his best start of the season and we consider the pitching matchup a wash. Home team with better offense as an underdog is a take.PLAY DETROIT |
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08-22-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Diego Padres +120 | 0-8 | Win | 120 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
914 St Louis at San Diego We’ve been in action a lot this season either backing or going against Ian Kennedy. He started the year terribly but his advanced numbers suggested a major rebound. He’s done just that as of late with his last 14 starts showing a 2.82 ERA. But as is often the case the betting markets are slow to react after the disastrous start to the season. The same can be said about this Cardinals offense which has really regressed because of the major injuries this team has sustained. With the Padres hitting the ball better than St Louis over the last month, and the nice price on Kennedy, we will back the host.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-21-15 | Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
969 Texas at Detroit Cheap total on this one considering the troubles from each of these starters. Lewis has a BABIP of .284 and Verlander sits at .275, both well below league average. Neither starter has elite strikeout potential anymore and neither is due any regression when looking at HR to FB ratio. In all four key pitching categories neither starter ranks below the top 100 starters in any of them. Needless to say these are not pitchers who are going to have success on a regular basis. Both teams rank in the top 10 hitting against right handed starters. With Cabrera back and healthy for the Tigers this offense is much better than the past month shows. These clubs average 9.56 runs against on the season and we expect a similar total in this contest of 10. Plenty of reasons for a high scoring contest with two offenses feasting on weak starters.PLAY OVER |
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08-20-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Cincinnati Reds +110 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
904 Arizona at Cincinnati One of our favorite handicapping angles is playing on an unknown lefty his first time through the league. John Lamb was once a top 20 prospect in the Royals organization who made his major league debut last week with the Reds. His counterpart is Patrick Corbin who returns to the hill this season after losing a year to injury in 2014.Cincinnati hit lefties far better than right handed starters and while Corbin’s numbers are a bit better this year than in his career, we are not expecting any big jumps in talent at this stage of his resume. Lamb has been an afterthought the past few seasons but now his time has come. We have what we perceive to be an underrated home dog here that should find offensive success against Corbin.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-19-15 | Kansas City Royals -102 v. Cincinnati Reds | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
977 Kansas City at Cincinnati Rare opportunity to take one of the top three teams in baseball as an underdog in an interleague match. The AL has dominated the NL in these contests and this year has been no different. Here we find the Royals with our favorite priced pitcher Guthrie in the role of underdog against an unheralded young pitcher for the Reds. Cincinnati has some decent arms in the minors but Sampson wasn’t projected to be one of them. We will take the Royals here to sweep the short series.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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08-18-15 | Cleveland Indians +108 v. Boston Red Sox | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
913 Cleveland at Boston Rodriguez was the shot in the arm the Red Sox pitching staff needed when he was promoted earlier in the season. Like many young lefties he had an advantage the first few weeks in the league until the opposition received complete scouting reports. It’s an angle we have used for years as the young lefty was often underrated. But now after he’s been around the block the opposition has been teeing off on the southpaw. There is a learning curve in each level and as of right now Rodriguez hasn’t made the needed adjustments.The same used to be said about Trevor Bauer but he’s far more consistent than he used to be in his early career. Known as a hard player to coach he’s becoming more accepting of changes and he has turned himself into a useful starter. Boston hits righties much worse than southpaws while the Indians have no lefty-righty disadvantages. Nice price here with the Tribe as a dog.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-16-15 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -102 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
914 San Diego at Colorado Taking a shot with the home team here to light up Ian Kennedy who has been very susceptible to the long ball this season. Chris Rusin isn’t a household name so we do get a bit of value with the southpaw. And speaking of lefty starters the Padres rank 26th in MLB against southpaws. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-14-15 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants +140 | 5-8 | Win | 140 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
914 Washington at San Francisco Matt Scherzer holds a large advantage over Matt Cain in this contest, but does that warrant the Nationals to be such a sizable favorite? Cain has had some bad luck with a .333 BABIP and a 12.8 HR to FB ratio. But even with adjustments we still concede the starting pitching advantage to Washington. But in every other category the Giants have the edge. Home field advantage, hitting over the last month, San Francisco is the top team in baseball hitting against right-handers. San Francisco has the better bullpen and is better defensively. So while we concede the starting pitcher edge every other part of the game points to the home underdog Giants.PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-13-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals +108 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
968 LA Angels at Kansas City Short and sweet analysis on this one. We simply don’t trust Garrett Richards as a road favorite against one of the top two teams in the league. Richards is 4-6 with a 4.84 ERA outside of the Big A as his return from surgery hasn’t brought back the dominant starter many expected. We always seem to find value on Jeremy Guthrie as he rarely gets backing despite his ability to keep his team in the game. Nice home dog spot for the superior club.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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08-11-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
976 Boston at Miami Taking advantage of unfamiliarity here with an Interleague game in a pitchers ballpark. Wright is a knuckle ball pitcher who comes in on a nice run and faces a Miami team who is simply not very effective offensively. Seeing a pitch it rarely faces is a big advantage to the Boston starter. Miami is also 30th in the league against right handed starters, so we likely won’t see much offense from the host.Lucas Nicolino has been a top prospect for the Marlins for the past few years. Here he gets the chance to prove he belongs. We like to back unknown lefties the first time through the league as the opposition doesn’t have a book on them yet. With Boston way out of the playoff chance and playing in a pitching ballpark we can see the Red Sox hitters struggling to make solid contact here, even though the Miami lefty is now known for his strikeout rates. Boston is 21st in baseball against left handed starters. We look for a low scoring contest.PLAY UNDER |
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08-08-15 | Minnesota Twins +121 v. Cleveland Indians | 4-17 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
925 Minnesota at Cleveland This handicap is quite simple. We don’t trust the Indians in the role of favorite. The team has underperformed all season, especially at home. The starting pitching could be the best in baseball but the rest of the team is lacking. The defense is bad and the hitting has been poor. The best offensive player this season has been Kipnis and he is currently on the DL. The management has been making trades trying to dump salary which is good, but that only helps the team in the future. The players now know the brass has given up on this season, and with high expectations entering the year we can see the team going through the motions the rest of the year. According to some players that’s exactly the way they have played thus far.Minnesota is fading just like we all thought after a terrific first half of the season. But this franchise knew it wasn’t a serious contender and didn’t mortgage the future by trying to chase the dream this year at the trade deadline. Minnesota is still playing competitive ball and continues to outperform expectations.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-07-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +130 v. San Diego Padres | 4-3 | Win | 130 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
963 Philadelphia at San Diego Who’s the team with the best record since the All-Star Break? Who’s the most profitable team as well? Sometimes the betting markets are very slow to react and that’s the case with the Philadelphia Phillies. Is this team going to the postseason? Obviously not but this club continues to play hard. The same cannot be said of the Padres who made major changes coming into the year and had much higher expectations than Philadelphia.We like Aaron Nola who could finally be the franchise starter this team has so sorely missed. He’s a ground ball pitcher with the ability to get strikeouts. He’s an exciting young player this team can build around. James Shields on the other hand is showing signs of fatigue. He’s carried the weight of his teams for quite a while now and the innings have piled up. We will back the team still showing signs of life to continue to be a post All-Star money maker.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-05-15 | San Diego Padres +117 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
963 San Diego at Milwaukee The trade deadline saw the Pads surprisingly staying pat while the Brewers dealt two of its biggest bats in Parra and Gomez. That should severely weaken the Brewers offensively the rest of the season. These two starters are much closer in results than the respective ERAs suggest. Kennedy has a better SIERA and his xFIP is almost exactly the same as Jungmann. The main reason for the differential is fly balls turning into home runs. Kennedy sits at a whopping 20.2% which ranks 197th in baseball while Jungmann sits at a minuscule 3.8% which is 3rd in the majors. That disparity is one of the largest you will find in all of baseball over the entire course of the season. If that single number was normalized you would likely see the favorite shift in the betting markets.Without two key outfield pieces for the Brewers we will look for some regression here and back Ian Kennedy to have a strong outing tonight.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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08-03-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +130 v. Washington Nationals | 6-4 | Win | 130 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
953 Arizona at Washington After expecting a big performance out of the Nationals last night and losing 5-2 we have to seriously question what’s going on in our nation’s capital. Earlier in the series Washington’s best player Bryce Harper got himself thrown out of a tie game for arguing strikes. That’s something that just can’t be done if you are a team expected to play in the postseason. Throw in the fact that you were just swept by your closest divisional competitor, and we can see this team can’t be trusted in the favorite role. Now Washington travels home to face a young starter in Godley they know little about.Arizona on the other hand was expected to underperform this year but the D’Backs continue to play competitive ball. With Doug Fister regressing this year and his inability to strike out batters we have a live dog tonight.PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-02-15 | Washington Nationals +113 v. New York Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
905 Washington at NY Mets This is a crucial game for both teams but especially the Nats who dropped the first two games in this series by single runs in dramatic fashion. Washington is the better team with a .38 runs per game differential but the Nationals have been injury ridden all season. Now with Werth back and Span among others on the way, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel for Washington. It’s a testament that this team remains in first place through all this adversary.The pitching matchup seems to be a tossup but we will side with the veteran Zimmerman in such an important game. Syndergaard is an exciting strikeout artist that fans and bettors get excited about but because of that we can find value with the pail and lunchbox Zimmerman. Against right-handed starters the Nationals rank 15th with the Mets sitting at 23rd. Even when looking at the Nationals offensive funk as of late it compares evenly with New York. With this game be featured as the Sunday Night Baseball contest we will back the playoff tested Nationals over the Mets who haven’t played many games of this magnitude over the years. Look for Bryce Harper to go off as he has a habit doing on the National stage.PLAY WASHINGTON |
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08-01-15 | Colorado Rockies +174 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 6-2 | Win | 174 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
961 Colorado at St Louis Big dog with tons of value in our opinion. de la Rosa has been hurt by the long ball this season allowing a whopping 16.9% of fly balls reach the seats. He has also struggled with his control on the year walking 11.6% of batters faced. While he traditionally has pitched very well in Coors Field those two numbers are disastrous when facing opponents in that building. This year we trust his road work which continues to be discounted based on prior years. The 2015 de la Rosa isn’t your older brothers lefty. St Louis simply doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as right handed starters, ranking just 21st in the league vs southpaws. Colorado on the other hand is 8th in baseball against righties. Over the last month the Rockies have been far superior offensively and this line mistakingly shows a major mismatch. We expect a tight game which is just what you want from a dog of this size.PLAY COLORADO |
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07-30-15 | Los Angeles Angels +141 v. Houston Astros | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
971 LA Angels at Houston |
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07-30-15 | New York Yankees -137 v. Texas Rangers | 6-7 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
969 NY Yankees at Texas |
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07-29-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates -124 v. Minnesota Twins | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
921 Pittsburgh at Minnesota Should be a sizable pitching advantage here with Liriano over Santana. Francisco’s 2.91 ERA is legit when looking at his advanced numbers. His SIERA, FIP and xFIP perfectly line up to show us exactly what we should expect from the lefty. On the other hand Santana and his 2.60 ERA are a complete fraud. With a SIERRA of 4.01, a FIP of 4.30 and an xFip of 4.08 we see some regression for the Twins starter. Just take a look at his extremely low BABIP of .205 and we see the reason for his false ERA. Minnesota has been playing above it’s head all season and tamely the Twins have started back towards the pack. We expect more regression here.PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-27-15 | Chicago White Sox +155 v. Boston Red Sox | 10-8 | Win | 155 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
909 Chicago White Sox at Boston It’s not often that we will be backing John Danks but this matchup has been way overly priced. When looking at the season to date numbers of both these starters the pitching matchup should be even. Other than Kelly having a higher HR to FB rate of 14.1 compared to Danks’ 9.7 these two are virtually equal. Over the last month the White Sox have hit slightly better than Boston. And the Red Sox hit far less vs lefty starters. It all boils down to a game which is much closer than the current line dictates.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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07-26-15 | Houston Astros -112 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
973 Houston at Kansas City Keuchel matches up well with the Royals. He’s not a dominant strikeout pitcher and Kansas City leads baseball in not striking out. He’s a pitcher that has the ability to pitch to contact, which would be a benefit against a team that doesn’t strike out. Kansas City doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as right-handed starters. The Astros have also hit better than KC the last month of the season.Ventura hasn’t been effective this season and the team actually sent him to the minors early in the week. Because of injuries the team brought him back without facing a minor league batter. If may have been a wakeup call for Ventura but we’re not banking on that. This is a player who let his frustrations get the best of him early in the season by hitting batters. He’s likely upset at the organization as opposed to setting himself straight.PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-25-15 | Detroit Tigers +114 v. Boston Red Sox | 5-1 | Win | 114 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
915 Detroit at Boston Despite the slight edge to Wright in ERA the advanced stats clearly show the pitching advantage is with the Tigers. SIERA, FIP and xFIP all favor Simon. But BABIP is the real indicator here. While Simon is at .322 Wright sits at an incredibly low .216. He’s been extremely lucky in his starts this year and against a good hitting Tigers club he will be exposed. Despite the loss of Cabrera the Tigers have still hit much better than the Red Sox over the last month. Better hitting, better pitching and a plus money price, too much to pass up.PLAY DETROIT |
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07-24-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -102 v. New York Mets | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
955 LA Dodgers at NY Mets Taking a chance on the better team here in a terrific price range. We’ve been a fan of Ian Thomas since his days at Atlanta. He has quality stuff but really hasn’t gotten much of a chance. The Dodgers have used him in long relief and other than a trip to Colorado he has been very good. He will get the start today and likely go the first 3 or 4 innings and the bullpen will take over. The bench pitchers are rested after the gem by Kershaw yesterday.The Mets are just not hitting and Niese is long past his prime. Let’s take the nice price with the Dodgers on Friday.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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07-22-15 | Toronto Blue Jays +143 v. Oakland A's | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
967 Toronto at Oakland |
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07-22-15 | Minnesota Twins +155 v. Los Angeles Angels | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
969 Minnesota at LA Angels |
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07-21-15 | Miami Marlins v. Arizona Diamondbacks -115 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
908 Miami at Arizona Both starters enter with high ERAs but their advanced metrics show they have pitched a little better than what the numbers have shown. The key to this handicap is just how bad the Marlins have been against right-handed pitching. Miami ranks 29th against righties and 4th against lefties. The team just hasn’t bounced back from the loss of Stanton, who is now cleared to swing a bat. His first step in returning for Miami. When we are able to get the better team, at home, against a struggling offense we will take advantage every time. And the pitching edge for the Marlins is next to nothing.PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-20-15 | Texas Rangers v. Colorado Rockies -130 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
970 Texas at Colorado Strong regression candidates here as Martinez enters with a 3.43 ERA but his advanced metrics show it should be about 1 1/2 runs higher. Rusin has a 4.53 ERA and his advanced stats show a .323 BABIP and a whopping 19.5 HR to FB ratio. Rusin in an extreme ground ball pitcher which plays to this long ball influenced park.Colorado ranks 13th in the league against righties while the Rangers struggle against southpaws with a ranking of 26th. PLAY COLORADO |
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07-19-15 | Seattle Mariners v. New York Yankees +101 | 1-2 | Win | 101 | 1 h 3 m | Show | |
916 Seattle at NY Yankees Rare chance to get the Yankees at home as an underdog. Looking at advanced metrics Hernandez is not quite as good as his 2.84 ERA as his .263 BABIP is a bit low. Sabathia on the other hand is far better than his current 5.47 ERA. His SIERA, FIP and xFIP stand at 3.67, 4.52 and 3.60. His BABIP is a whopping .332 with a 17.1 HR to FB ratio. To put it bluntly Sabathia is due for some positive regression. When looking at hitting over the last month it’s no contest as the Yankees have raked while the Mariners have struggled. While Cano looks to have pointed himself in the right direction, the rest of the team hasn’t impressed. The Yankees own a season long run differential of 0.84 runs per game.PLAY NY YANKEES |
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07-18-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Cincinnati Reds +155 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
980 Cleveland at Cincinnati The Reds were good to us yesterday in a wire to wire victory. We feel there is more value on the intrastate rivalry tonight. There is no doubt that Corey Kluber is the superior starter, but just ask his daily backers how that has turned out this year. The Tribe just doesn’t hit with Kluber on the mound and it has nothing to do with how the quiet one has pitched this year. While his numbers aren’t as good as last year they are very comparable. But these are the type of games going against star pitchers provide advantages.The Indians rank 3rd in baseball hitting against lefties, but only 17th against right-handed starters. When we are able to go against a team in this price range that we expect to struggle offensively, we will surely do so. Especially a team playing at home. Look for the Reds to scratch out another victory as Kluber once again gets no run support.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-17-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Cincinnati Reds +103 | 1-6 | Win | 103 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
930 Cleveland at Cincinnati While the American League has had the upper hand in these Interleague match-ups, we will side with the NL host in this one. A great deal of the handicap comes down to capping home runs. Bauer has a GB to FB ratio of 0.84 while Leake is an extreme ground ball pitcher at 2.27. In a home run hitting park that is a huge differential for the underdog. Over the last month the Reds bats have been more productive than those of the Tribe and we see major regression on Leake’s 16.9 HR to FB ratio.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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07-10-15 | Washington Nationals +122 v. Baltimore Orioles | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
977 Washington at Baltimore The American League has dominated the NL in these interleague match ups but this price is just too damn high. The Nationals are a legit squad that can make it to the World Series. While we picked the Orioles to win its division this team has too many flaws to advance far in the postseason. Baltimore doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as right-handed starters. Tillman is still struggling with control as a full 10% of batters faced are drawing walks. His advanced numbers are better than his 5.57 ERA but not enough to make us want to trust him.Gio Gonzalez is a major ground ball pitcher. His GB to FB ratio is 2.58 to 1, which is needed in this ballpark. Despite a 4.16 ERA his SIERA is 3.60, FIP of 3.16 and xFIP of 3.47 clearly show regression. Same with his extremely high .345 BABIP. Washington has the better starter and the higher quality team and yet has been made the dog here.PLAY WASHINGTON |
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07-09-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates +100 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
902 St Louis at Pittsburgh Big showdown in Pittsburgh as the Pirates and Cardinals have positioned themselves as playoff frontrunners. While Carlos Martinez has the more electrifying arsenal but his advanced stats are a half run higher than his ERA. He’s striking out 25.4% of batters but he still doesn’t have the control needed to take the next step.Jeff Locke is allowing a 3.14 BABIP which is a bit high but all other stats show he is what he is, a starter that’s going to allow 4.0 earned runs per nine innings. The key to this handicap is how much lower the Cards hit lefties as opposed to righties. While St Louis hits righties well they rank 25th in the league against left-handed starters. With injuries to key personal this isn’t the same St Louis team that we saw earlier in the season. Let’s take the Bucs at home at an underdog price.PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-08-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Kansas City Royals +120 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
972 Tampa Bay at Kansas City Chris Archer has been tremendous but he is off his highest pitch count of the season throwing 120 pitches last time out. Coming off that high output game and facing a very patient Royals roster we can see Archer being pulled early in this one. Guthrie has been known over the years as an innings eater. He is able to keep his teams in the game giving them a chance to compete. He’s done just that this year for the Royals as he has been a pitcher worth backing because of his negative name recognition. Hitting wise the Royals rank 11th in the league vs righties while the Rays sit at 22nd. While Tampa has the more acclaimed starter the value is on the better team at home in a rare dog role.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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07-06-15 | Baltimore Orioles -105 v. Minnesota Twins | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
965 Baltimore at Minnesota While Wei-Yin Chen’s 2.84 ERA isn’t sustainable based on his advanced metrics it’s still better than the numbers Phil Hughes has put up this year. Chen is superior not only in ERA but SIERA, FIP and xFIP. He has been fortunate in BABIP which is why he is allowing only a .232 batting average against. That said we get the superior starter here along with a big offensive advantage with the Orioles. Baltimore has a .47 runs per game differential in this matchup and the Twins who shot out of the gate strong are regressing to where the numbers said they would. Nice price here on the superior squad.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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07-04-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's +122 | 0-2 | Win | 122 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
974 Seattle at Oakland Felix Hernandez has been a hall of fame pitcher thus far, but there is still opportunities to make money going against the best. He’s not been quite as sharp this year with a 3.05 ERA and his advanced stats show that ERA is correct. He is allowing only a .249 BABIP while his HR to FB rate is high at 15.2%.Kendall Graveman hasn’t pitched as well as his 3.47 ERA according to the advanced stats. But he has been terrific since his recall from the minors. Keep in mind he was a Cactus League sensation coming into the regular season, and after a few bad early season starts he was sent down. We believe more in how he is pitching right now as compared to the limited April starts. Oakland ranks #5 in the league against right handed pitchers, while Seattle sits at #26 against righties. The A’s have a 1.17 run per game differential over the Mariners, so despite the close records Oakland is the better team.PLAY OAKLAND |
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07-03-15 | Houston Astros +112 v. Boston Red Sox | 12-8 | Win | 112 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
919 Houston at Boston It’s now official that the Astros will be without George Springer again for 6-8 weeks. But this team has been there before and unlike in the past there is enough depth in this organization to get by without the talented outfielder. We feel his loss is being overvalued in the betting marketplace tonight and even without him the Astros are the play. Dan Straily put up obscene strikeout numbers in the minors but he was brought along too quick in our opinion by the A’s. He has the talent to be a difference maker in the majors so don’t give up on him yet.Boston is starting Justin Masterson who has just been a shell of his earlier days in Cleveland. He started his career in the Boston system and the Red Sox have always regretted trading him to Cleveland. But as an avid Indians fan we saw the Masterson decline coming. With his long body he has to have a near perfect delivery to stay away from control issues. He just hasn’t been able to master that part of his game since coming down with injuries. We haven’t seen any improvement and thus we are looking for a big offensive day for the visitor.PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-01-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -132 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
909 LA Dodgers at Arizona Anderson has a 3.61 GB to FB rate which is something you look for when pitching in this ballpark. Despite a .318 BABIP his advanced stats back up his 3.13 ERA.Ray is a fly ball pitcher that has been fortunate with a 4.7% HR to FB ratio. He’s also only allowed a .252 BABIP which will regress. The Dodgers have a .99 runs per game differential over the D Backs. This is a good line for the road team who holds many advantages in this matchup.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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06-30-15 | Seattle Mariners v. San Diego Padres -116 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
980 Seattle at San Diego Interesting numbers on these two starters that we can take advantage of. Montgomery enters play with a 2.04 ERA but his SIERA sits at 4.25 while his xFIP is 4.17. He’s been helped by a .243 BABIP and a HR to FB rate of 2.6%. Kennedy has been quite the opposite with an ERA of 5.09 but a SIERA of 3.73 and an xFIP of 3.75. He’s allowing a whopping 21.7% HR to FB ratio. San Diego hits lefties better than righties and the Mariners struggle against righties. The Padres also own a .26 runs per game advantage over Seattle. Nice priced home squad here.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-29-15 | New York Yankees +118 v. Los Angeles Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
913 NY Yankees at LA Angels Looking to ride the value here with the underdog Yankees. Sabathia comes in with a whopping 5.65 ERA but his SIERA is 3.54, his FIP is 4.50 and his xFIP is 3.50. He is allowing a BABIP of .343 while surrendering a home run to flyable rate of 17.7. To put it mildly CC has been very unlucky this season and he’s not nearly as bad as his record suggests. CJ Wilson is having a typical season which doesn’t happen very often. He’s been one of the most inconsistent starters in his career. But his 3.92 ERA is about in line with his other stats although his BABIP right now is a bit low at .279.The Yankees hit lefties much better than the Angels and on the season have a .42 runs per game advantage overall over LA. Nice price here for a good hitting New York club.PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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06-27-15 | Seattle Mariners +133 v. Los Angeles Angels | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
927 Seattle at LA Angels JA Happ comes into the game with a high .327 BABIP, his advanced numbers show his 3.78 ERA is authentic, so he should be able to lower than number with a little bit of batted ball luck. Garrett Richards was outstanding before his major leg injury. He coming around and it will take time but as of right now it has been a slow process. He owns a 3.66 ERA but his advanced stats suggest closer to a 4.00 ERA starter. His BABIP sits at .265 to those numbers have a decent chance of rising. We said a week or so back that we were anticipating a Seattle winning run. We stand behind that projection after watching closely how this team has been playing. Nice price on the dog here.PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-25-15 | New York Yankees +149 v. Houston Astros | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
921 NY Yankees at Houston |
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06-24-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Miami Marlins +111 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
956 St Louis at Miami Jaime Garcia has always been a quality starter when healthy, the problem has been he rarely is. Coming in with a 1.76 ERA which is at least a full run lower than his advanced stats. Still he’s having a quality season but a .246 BABIP shows there is regression on the horizon.Matt Latos has had quite the opposite season with a 5.37 ERA and advanced stats that show it should be a full two runs lower. His BABIP is .359 which once again points towards a major regression.Garcia is a major ground ball pitcher this season which really doesn’t help his cause in this ballpark where flyballs rarely turn into homers. St Louis hits righties well but the Marlins really rake against lefties. Nice price here with the home dog.PLAY MIAMI |
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06-23-15 | Toronto Blue Jays +146 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
919 Toronto at Tampa Bay It’s clear that Chris Archer is the superior pitcher here which is why the line sits where it does. But the Blue Jays have some nice advantages here that make them an attractive underdog. Toronto is #2 in baseball against right-handed starters while the Rays sit in the middle of the pack. When looking at the pythagorean records Toronto is a full five games ahead of Tampa Bay. In fact, when looking at run differentials the Jays are up 1.10 runs per game while the Rays sit at 0.27 runs per contest.Tampa has the pitching edge but the hitting advantage is clearly with the underdog Toronto Blue Jays.PLAY TORONTO |
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06-21-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Oakland A's -108 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
926 LA Angels at Oakland Short analysis because of time constraints. The pitching matchup is a toss up as Kazmir’s advanced stats show him with a slightly worse ERA than traditional numbers. The real reason we like the A’s today is because how well they hit righties. Oakland is 2nd in baseball against right-handed starters and the Angels are just16th against lefties. Despite the records Oakland has almost a half run per game edge over Los Angeles. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-20-15 | San Francisco Giants +142 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 6-2 | Win | 142 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
961 San Francisco at LA Dodgers Time constraints on Saturday force us to keep this analysis brief. Simply put neither one of these starters are at the top of their game right now. Hudson because of age and Frias being a AAAA pitcher. Therefore the handicap comes down to the teams, and there is little reason to make the Dodgers a prohibitive favorite here. The Giants have been solid on the road and always give a supreme effort in the dog role. We expect late sharp money to come in on the Giants and we are grabbing the nice paying price now before it drops.PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-19-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians -153 | 4-1 | Loss | -153 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
920 Tampa Bay at Cleveland We don’t usually release favorites in this range but our stubbornness cost us a victory yesterday on the Blue Jays, that won’t stop us today. For those who follow us regularly we are always looking for hidden value when it comes to perceived talent as opposed to real life talent. Nate Karns has a 3.86 ERA but his advanced numbers show an ERA of .5 runs higher. His BABIP is only .242 and that is sure to regress higher.Carlos Carrasco on the other hand has been very unlucky. He has a 4.38 ERA but his advanced numbers show a SIERA of 2.89, a FIP of 2.67 and an xFIP of 2.85. His BABIP is a full 100 points higher than his counterpart at .342. That’s going to regress in a big way. Tampa Bay is 17th in baseball against righties while the Tribe ranks 6th in the league. The line is higher than what we usually release but there is still plenty of value to be found.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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06-17-15 | Houston Astros v. Colorado Rockies +120 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
922 Houston at Colorado Once again a ton of money has been bet across the board on American League clubs. It happened yesterday and has been a mainstay of this Interleague season. We’ve consistently seen games more 30 cents or more from the openers. Yet the lines maker already knows that the American League has shown an advantage in these games from years of data. It’s like an additional tariff is being paid by new uninformed money in the market. If the lines maker knows money is going to pour in on the junior circuit doesn’t it make sense for them to make the daily adjustments? That’s the key as the bookies are well aware of the percentages and willing to take in the added juice on American League backers.This game opened with Colorado being a -115 favorite and now you can get the home standing Rockies at up to +119 in some spots. That 34 cent move is way too much with a Houston team that is young any willing to swing for the fences. Teams make adjustments when playing in Coors Field as eyes light up in batting practice and continue into the games. That throws a team off and is why the Rockies traditionally have been so good at home. Oberholtzer has a excellent 2.25 ERA but his advanced stats show he should be in the lower 4 ERA range. He leads all of baseball in home run to fly ball ratio, as he has yet to allow a homer this season. As we say that is due for some major regression. Kyle Kendrick is what he is, a fringe starter. But this handicap isn’t based on Kendick, it’s based on an over adjustment in the betting markets. WE take advantage.PLAY COLORADO |
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06-15-15 | Seattle Mariners v. San Francisco Giants -111 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
930 Seattle at San Francisco Walker has been very inconsistent this year like many young power armed pitchers. He’s better than his 5.40 ERA but we haven’t seen enough of a buy sign to back him on a regular basis. Tim Hudson is exactly what you expect at this stage of his career. He’s an extreme ground ball pitcher that relies on control and experience to get batters out. IN this ballpark that’s likely all you need for success. He doesn’t give up many fly balls but when he does 16.7% leave the ballpark, which is sure to regress.San Francisco ranks 2nd in baseball against righties while Seattle sits at 23rd in the league. While the American League has performed well in interleague action, this NL home squad is undervalued on Monday.PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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06-14-15 | Cleveland Indians -128 v. Detroit Tigers | 1-8 | Loss | -128 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
965 Cleveland at Detroit |
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06-13-15 | Cincinnati Reds +138 v. Chicago Cubs | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
911 Cincinnati at Chicago Analysis will be shortened today because of time constraints. Leake is a different pitcher when he gets out of The Great American Ballpark and it’s home run tendency. His road ERA is 2.72 with a WHIP of .091 and an opponent batting average of .190. This is the third time he has faced the Cubs this season. Kyle Hendricks has been the hotter pitcher as of late, probably making himself overrated at this juncture. His advantaged stats don’t support him in this price range. Taking a shot at the underdog Reds tonight to continue our current run. Back in the morning at the regular time tomorrow. Sorry about the late post as travel complications were too much to overcome.PLAY CINCINNATI |
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06-12-15 | Toronto Blue Jays +100 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
969 Toronto at Boston Hutchison doesn’t impress with his 4.91 ERA but his advanced stats show a different story. From 3.63 to 3.71 between SIERA, FIP and xFIP. He also has a .317 BABIP which is also running high and due for regression. Toronto is 3rd in baseball hitting against righties while Boston ranks 17th. Toronto has the highest run differential in the American League despite just a barely .500 record.PLAY TORONTO |
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06-10-15 | Seattle Mariners +143 v. Cleveland Indians | 9-3 | Win | 143 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
965 Seattle at Cleveland Cleveland played well in Seattle on the recent west coast trip, but now we look for the Mariners to get the best of the Tribe. These teams are very similar with solid starting pitching and an inconsistent offense. Both these starters fared well against this opponent in Seattle so we look for a lower scoring game here. Walker has exceptional talent but has been extremely inconsistent. When he has struggled with his control he has been a disaster. But he’s found his groove the past two starts and we like his power pitching arsenal against the Indians. A nice win over Kluber has raised the Mariner confidence and we see a nice run on the horizon by Seattle.PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-09-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Colorado Rockies +111 | 3-4 | Win | 111 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
910 St Louis at ColoradoCardinals are coming off likely playoff opponent Los Angeles in a hard fought series. It showed last night as Colorado dominated. While many would expect a Cardinal rebound with Wacha on the mound we think the Rockies are a play on tonight.Wacha has an outstanding 2.18 ERA but his other numbers show what’s really happening. A 4.14 SIERA, a 3.56 FIP and an xFIP of 4.01. His BABIP stands at .236 which is very fortunate. de la Rosa has been nearly automatic at home since coming over to the Rockies. He has mastered the art of pitching in Coors Field. As opposed to Wacha his numbers are heading for a positive regression mark. Coming in with a 6.15 ERA but his additional numbers show 3.96, 3.77 and 3.65. His BABIP is a whopping .337 over 100 points higher than Wacha. Colorado hits righties well while the Cardinals are less effective against left-handed starters. In addition Matt Holliday one of the premier bats in this St Louis offense was pulled yesterday with an injury.PLAY COLORADO |
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06-08-15 | San Diego Padres +122 v. Atlanta Braves | 5-3 | Win | 122 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
955 San Diego at Atlanta Two pitchers off to opposite starts to the season. But will that trend continue or is there regression in the air? Ian Kennedy comes in with an unheard of ERA of 6.60. But a closer look shows a SIERA of 3.76 and an xFIP of 3.85. Truth of the matter is a lot of his troubles have been bad luck. His BABIP is .311 while his HR to FB rate is a whopping 25.5%. There is plenty of regression coming in his numbers which makes him a buy low candidate.On quite the other hand is Shelby Miller. He posts an outstanding 1.89 ERA but his SIERRA is 4.18 and his xFIP is 4.08. Kennedy actually has better numbers when considering SIERA and xFIP. Unlike Kennedy only 6.3% of Miller’s fly balls go over the fence, and his BABIP is just .215. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-07-15 | Milwaukee Brewers -103 v. Minnesota Twins | 0-2 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
929 Milwaukee at Minnesota |
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06-06-15 | New York Mets v. Arizona Diamondbacks -124 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
962 NY Mets at ArizonaNot a good situation for Bartolo Colon who is a fly ball pitcher in a good hitters park. Colon has been able to extend his career by pitching in Oakland and New York, two places that have been hard on home run hitters. That isn’t the case in this ballpark which has long been a good place to hit. The Diamondbacks have hit righties at a far better pace than the Mets, and we really like the underrated Anderson. Lay it with the host.PLAY ARIZONA |
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06-06-15 | San Diego Padres -105 v. Cincinnati Reds | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
957 San Diego at Cincinnati These two pitchers have much different story lines this season. While Cashner has a 3.46 ERA all his advanced numbers back that up. That’s not the case with Lorenzen who has an excellent ERA of 2.45 but a 5.50 SIERA, a 5.93 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP. Those who only look at the public stat of ERA would draw completely wrong conclusions. Let’s take a look at BABIP which historically is in the .298 to .300 range. Cashner is allowing a whopping .347 while Lorenzen has been very fortunate at .198, the luckiest pitcher in baseball. Both teams hit righties at almost an identical clip, so it call comes down to the starters. Big edge for the road squad.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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06-05-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees -110 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
918 LA Angels at NY Yankees While Weaver has a slight edge in ERA of 4.08 vs 4.40 for Eovaldi, the Yankee righty is better in SIERRA, FIP and xFIP. What really is amazing about Eovaldi is his xFIP is a solid 3.75 yet he’s allowing a .321 batting average and whopping .367 BABIP. Those numbers are way out of whack and are sure to normalize. The Yankees are much better hitting against righties than are the Angels, and New York has a better run differential of also .25 per game. The Yankees at the current number playing at home is one hell of a bargain.PLAY NY YANKEES |
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06-04-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers -105 | 7-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
958 St Louis at Los Angeles Huge battle of powerhouses out on the west coast tonight. We love Michael Wacha but he’s being a bit overpriced in this matchup. Sure his 2.27 ERA easily betters Frias and his 4.59 ERA, but a closer look at the numbers tells a different story. When looking at SIERRA, FIP and xFIP the numbers are nearly identical. 4.00 to 4.18 edge in SIERRA to Frias. 3.74 to 3.97 FIP edge to Wacha. 3.90 to 4.07 advantage in xFIP for Frias. Looking at BABIP we see Wacha being very fortunate allowing just a .228 batting average in balls in play, while Frias has been very unlucky at .333. The LA Dodgers also lead all baseball in hitting against right handed pitchers, another reason to find value on the host here. So while we love Michael Wacha on the season we have a clear overlay here. The Dodgers at home with a relative no name starter has a ton of betting value.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-03-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +121 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 6-5 | Win | 121 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
927 Tampa Bay at LA Angels The Rays were good to us last night and we see no reason to jump off the winning train here. Because of the excellent job Archer did yesterday the bullpen is in great shape tonight. While Nate Karns hasn’t had a great deal of fanfare his xFIP is half a run better than his mound counterpart Santiago. Karns is only allowing a .192 batting average so he has been hard to square up on. Santiago comes in with an impressive 2.18 ERA but when digging deeper the numbers show us a pitcher more in the 4 earned runs a game level. The Rays simply tee off on left-handed pitchers ranking second in all of baseball, the Angels on the other hand are 19th in the league vs righties. Nice price on the dog here in a game which should be lined much closer to pick ‘em.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-02-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -113 v. Los Angeles Angels | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
975 Tampa Bay at LA Angels |
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