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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-07-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8 | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
914 Kansas City at Cleveland Runs should be very hard to come by on Monday as we really like this pitching matchup. Keller has been outstanding for the Royals this year and yet he remains under the radar. His average game score on the season is 60.2, and he had a 66 last time out vs the Indians. Plesac has even been more impressive when he isn’t our at the Chicago bars. His game scores this season have been 87, 62, 68, and 66. An average of 70.75, league average is 50. Neither team hits righties very well with the Royals coming in at 84, and the Tribe at 91. League average is 100. Throw in the fact that the Royals may be without Soler again and we really find it hard for either of these two teams to score. PLAY UNDER |
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09-07-20 | Rays +110 v. Nationals | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
911 Tampa Bay at Washington The Nationals return home off a long road trip in which it won just 2 of 10 games. Washington is only 6-13 on the season at home. The Nationals wRC+ against righties is 94, 6% below league average. Tampa Bay has a 110 wRC+ vs righties and are 14-7 on the season on the road. Morton and Scherzer come out virtually equal on the mound, and we prefer the Rays bullpen in this matchup. Better team with a plus price than has proven themselves on the road. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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09-06-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -119 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
976 Texas at Seattle Jordan Lyles has been a train wreck this season. His five starts have resulted in game scores of 10, 23, 39, 47 and 36. Two of those starts came against Seattle. The Mariners have a 102 wRC+ vs righties, and have won 7 of its last 10 games overall. Justin Dunn has been a league average pitcher this season, despite allowing five homers in his 27 innings of work. Texas against righties have a wRC+ of 62, 38% worse than league average. The Rangers have lost 8 of 10 games as of late, scoring four runs or less 8 of those 10 games. With a 7-15 record vs right-handed pitchers, and a 4-15 record on the road, we will lay it with the host. PLAY SEATTLE |
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09-06-20 | Nationals +124 v. Braves | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
957 Washington at Atlanta The numbers say the Nationals are only 5-21 on the season vs righties. But that’s not the entire picture, as they have a wRC+ of 96, just 4% below the MLB average. Josh Tomlin has done a nice job in the Braves bullpen. But because of injuries and lack of performance he’s now in the starting rotation. In his three starts this season his game scores have been 38, 36 and 43. The past three seasons he has pitched 172.1 innings and has allowed 43 homers! He gave up the long ball on a regular basis when in Cleveland also. Patrick Corbin in his last five starts vs Atlanta has an average game score of 56. League average is 50. He allows less than one homer per game the past three seasons. The Braves have a wRC+ of 78 against lefties. Nice price here with the reigning champions. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-05-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -131 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
926 Texas at Seattle The Rangers are dead last in the league vs lefties with a wRC+ of 65. That’s 35% worst than an average team. The Rangers have also dropped 7 of its last 9 games overall, while scoring 4 runs or less in 8 of 10 games. Justus Sheffield has an average game score of 55 in his last four outings. Kyle Gibson on the other hand has put up game scores of 41, 37, 35, 52 and 30 his last five starts. Seattle has a 101 wRC+ on the season vs righties. Money has been flowing towards the Mariners all day, and we agree. PLAY SEATTLE |
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09-04-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -126 | 6-5 | Loss | -126 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
980 Arizona at San Francisco The Diamondbacks are 1-9 on the season vs lefties with a wRC+ of 64, tied for worst in baseball. Tyler Anderson is facing Arizona for the third time in the last two weeks. In his last outing against this squad he struggled badly with an 18 game score. We expect the young southpaw to make the needed adjustments against this Arizona team who has dropped 9 of its last 10 games overall. Taylor Clark looked good against the Giants last time out with a 67 game score. But his previous three games against San Francisco resulted in game scores of 29, 22 and 54. With the Giants having a 106 wRC+ vs righties, also with the Diamondbacks being 5-15 away from home. We have plenty of value on the host. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-03-20 | White Sox -134 v. Royals | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
913 Chicago WS at Kansas City Looking to jump on this Sox lineup once again when facing a lefty. Now 11-0 on the season with a league leading wRC+ of 157. A full 23% higher than the next best team. Dylan Cease has road game scores of 58, 51 and 57 his last three away starts. This is his third start against the Royals this year with game scores of 57 and 56. Normally you would look for some type of letdown after facing Minnesota, but the Sox dropped those last two meetings. So therefore we can probably ignore the letdown here. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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09-02-20 | Tigers +154 v. Brewers | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
967 Detroit at Milwaukee We cashed big on the Tigers yesterday, and yet for the second straight game the Brewers are taking money. Spencer Turnbull should be a major money maker this year after 6.06 and 4.61 ERA’s the past two seasons. What we love about the Tigers righty is that he doesn’t give up the long ball. The last three seasons he has permitted just 15 home runs in 195 innings. The Tigers are 12-13 vs righties with a wRC+ of 94, while the Brewers are 10-14 with a wRC+ of 70. Detroit is 8-6 on the road, while Milwaukee is 7-10 at home. Adrian Houser got out of the gate fast this season, but has faltered as of late. Game scores of 42, 47, 45 and 30. Not ideal when the league average is 50. PLAY DETROIT |
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09-02-20 | Cardinals +141 v. Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
953 St Louis at Cincinnati Not only did the Cardinals pound the Reds last night 16-2, but they have dominated this series 29-15 the past three years. Tyler Mahle has an average game score of 43 the last five meetings with St Louis. The Cards are 13-11 vs righties with a wRC+ of 109. The Reds are 10-17 vs righties with a wRC+ of 93. Cincinnati is also just 7-11 at home. The Reds bullpen used five pitchers last night, each throwing 19 pitches or more. That included key late inning relievers like Bradley, Thornburg, Jones and Iglesias. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-02-20 | Giants +128 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
951 San Francisco at Colorado Kyle Freeland has a 46 average game score against the Giants the last five meetings. His last three games overall at home produced game scores of 27, 56 and 46. The only quality start was against Arizona who is second worst in baseball vs left-handers. The Giants have a 119 wRC+ against lefties. Colorado is 9-16 vs righties with a wRC+ of 75, fourth worst in the majors. Here are the pitch counts from the Colorado bullpen yesterday, 50, 32, 27 and 23. Want no part of these free falling Rockies who are just 8-12 at home. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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09-01-20 | Tigers +180 v. Brewers | 12-1 | Win | 180 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
915 Detroit at Milwaukee Both starting pitchers have really struggled to open the season. Fulmer coming off injury, and Lindblom returning from South Korea. Detroit will likely go to the bullpen first as Fulmer’s high pitch count has been 63. But that’s probably a good thing considering the struggles of these starters. Detroit has a better record against righties, 11-13 to 10-13. The wRC+ numbers show Detroit at 89, and Milwaukee at 70. So we get the better hitting team vs righties catching a huge plus payoff. Add in the fact that the Tigers are 7-6 on the road and Brewers 7-9 at home. This line makes no sense whatsoever. It’s all based on name recognition and not 2020 reality. We simply cannot pass up this overlay. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-31-20 | Padres +105 v. Rockies | 6-0 | Win | 105 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
969 San Diego at Colorado Neither starter has gotten off to the starts they had planned. Both come in off back to back poor performances. The Padres are 16-9 vs righties on the season with a wRC+ of 125, second best in baseball. Colorado against righties are 9-14 with a 79 wRC+. San Diego is playing the much better ball as of late, and management is doing everything it can to upgrade this roster. Nice price with the better team. PLAY SAN DIEGOÂ |
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08-31-20 | Mariners +136 v. Angels | 2-1 | Win | 136 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
953 Seattle at LA Angels Nice advantages all around for the Mariners here. Seattle comes in with a 100 wRC+ against righties, while the Angels are just an 82 wRC+ against lefties. Marco Gonzales has faced LA twice this year with game scores of 68 and 66. Jaime Barria is making his first start of the season, after posting a 6.42 ERA in 2019. He’s very prone to the long ball, allowing 41 homers in just 221.1 innings of work the past three seasons. Over the last month Seattle is just 12-18, while the Angels are only 10-20. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-29-20 | Mariners +160 v. Angels | 3-16 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
979 Seattle at LA Angels Came up a bit short with our big plus money play on the Mariners last night. But we are finding value once against with this Seattle club. Over the past three seasons Seattle has a 23-22 record in this series. Dylan Bundy got off to a great start for the Angels but has faded as of late with 37 and 48 game scores. He is very prone to the long ball allowing 74 homers in just 380.2 innings of work. Hard to lay this number with a guy allowing two home runs per nine innings. Justus Sheffield was highly touted and his last three starts show why. Game scores of 71, 57 and 60 show he is finally living up to expectations. On the season the Angels have a 73 wRC+ vs lefties, 27% worse than league average. The Mariners are 102 vs right-handers. Great price with the visitor tonight. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-29-20 | Pirates +175 v. Brewers | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
969 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee Can’t understand why this line is so high. Over the last three years the Brewers have a 25-20 record in this series. On the season Milwaukee is just 5-8 at home. Against right-handed starters Milwaukee is third worst in baseball with a wRC+ of 66, 34% worse than an average MLB squad. Pittsburgh on the other hand has a 108 wRC+ vs lefties. We can see the host being a slight favorite here, but this line is completely overblown. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-29-20 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 10 | 1-4 | Loss | -122 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
955 Atlanta at Philadelphia Over The last five games in this series have seen combined scores of 11, 9, 11, 13 and 21. Against right-handed starters the Braves have a wRC+ of 117, while the Phillies are 108. The two starters just faced off against each other six days ago, and the game scores were 36 and 47. Tomlin has a history of allowing home runs in bunches. The last three seasons he has permitted 42 homers in just 168 innings. Eflin has allowed 46 homers in just 310.2 innings. We look for both offenses to have success today. PLAY OVER |
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08-28-20 | Mariners +180 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
927 Seattle at Los Angeles Angels While Andrew Heaney has pitched well against the Mariners this year , with game scores of 54 and 58. It will be the third time in a month the Mariners have seen the lefty. Heaney has only allowed two home runs this year and yet his ERA is still 5.52. The last three seasons he has given up 49 long balls in only 304.2 innings. Margevicius has been solid since coming over to Seattle with game scores of 56, 59 and 46. The Mariners are playing good ball right now having won 6 of 8 as of late. Looking at wRC+ vs lefties this season Seattle is at 70 and the Angels 71. No way should this line be anywhere near this high. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-28-20 | Royals v. White Sox -138 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
916 Kansas City at Chicago White Sox Danny Duffy has been very good this year, and has a nice 54 average game score against the White Sox his last five starts in this series. But the Royals are only 6-12 on the road and 10-16 vs right-handed starters. The Sox are a perfect 8-0 on the season vs lefties, with an unheard of wRC+ of 170. That’s 33% higher than the second ranked team in the league vs left-handed starters. The Sox are hot having won 9 of its last 10 games. Cheap number at home vs a lefty pitcher. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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08-27-20 | Pirates +144 v. Cardinals | 4-3 | Win | 144 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
973 Pittsburgh at St Louis While the Pirates are 0-4 on the season vs lefty starters, they actually have hit southpaws well. With a wRC+ of 125 on the year, ranking eighth in the majors. Chad Kuhl has a sparkling 2.84 ERA despite allowing four home runs in 19 innings of work. His game scores in 2020 are 63, 52 and 57. The two teams Kim has faced struggle vs lefties. Cincinnati has a 93 wRC+ and the Cubs are just an 85 wRC+. This will actually be the best offense he has faced this year believe it or not. Solid value on the dog this afternoon. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-25-20 | Angels v. Astros -136 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
974 LA Angels at Houston The Astros have dominated this series winning 67% of the last 42 meetings, including 3 of 4 this year. Jose Suarez has an average game score of 34 his last seven starts. Well short of the league average of 50. in 82.1 innings of MLB work he has allowed 24 home runs! Cristian Javier has been impressive in his rookie season, with a 55 average game score. The Angels are 4-12 on the road and 5-16 vs right-handed starters. Houston is 7-5 vs lefties with a wRC+ of 131, 31% better than league average. The Astros are 11-4 at home. PLAY HOUSTON |
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08-24-20 | Cubs -123 v. Tigers | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
905 Chicago Cubs at Detroit In our opinion too much credit is being given to the Tigers starter. Casey Mize has a very bright future, but young hurlers tend to struggle out of the gate. In his debut he only went 4.1 innings while allowing 3 earned runs. The talent is there but it’s very rare for rookie pitchers to enter the league fully formed. Alec Mills struggled last time out against the Cardinals. But his game scores before that start were 61, 72 and 52. The Cubs are 12-8 vs righties on the season, while the Tigers are 7-12 in that same category. Chicago is 5-2 on the road while Detroit is 4-9 at home. This Tiger pitching staff has allowed 67 runs its last 10 games. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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08-22-20 | Angels v. A's -135 | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
904 LA Angels at Oakland Had the A’s last night and they led wire to wire. No reason to switch sides today as the Angels are the most overrated team in the league. This will be the third time each of these starters has faced the opposition this year. Neither pitched extremely well with Bassitt posting game scores of 56 and 47, and Canning 49 and 36. So Bassitt has had the better recent success against this opponent. The Angels are 4-15 vs right-handed starters and 3-10 on the road. Oakland is 12-8 vs righties and 12-3 playing here. The Angels are 8-19 on the season while the A’s are 19-8. This is a very cheap number. PLAY OAKLAND |
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08-21-20 | Angels v. A's +107 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 107 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
976 LA Angels at Oakland Going against the early line movement in this one as we get the clearly better team in the home dog roll. Sure Andrew Heaney has had very good success against this A’s squad, with an average game score of 62 his last five meetings. He’s fared much better against todays opponent that Mike Tiers who has a 42 average game score against the Angels. That’s a clear starting pitcher edge for Los Angeles. But looking much deeper we see that Heaney has a 4.74 ERA this season despite only allowing a single home run in 24.2 innings. Fiers on the other hand has a 5.96 ERA but has allowed 7 hame runs in just 25.2 innings. The previous two seasons the Angels lefty allowed 47 homers in 275.1 innings of work. These are two pitchers about to hit major regression. The road favorite Angels are just 4-14 vs right-handed starters and 3-9 this year on the road. Oakland is a perfect 6-0 vs lefties and 11-3 overall in this ballpark. The last season plus Oakland has a 17-9 record in this series. Too much value in this one to not want a piece of the home dog. PLAY OAKLAND |
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08-20-20 | Angels v. Giants -112 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
924 LA Angels at San Francisco Kevin Gausman has always had the talent, but he’s had a hard time putting it all together. But this year he has started with game scores of 47, 50, 69 and 55. More impressive is that those games were hosting the Padres, at Colorado, at the LA Dodgers and hosting Oakland. Some pretty good hitting teams in tough parks. The Angels are only 4-13 on the season vs right-handed starters, and 3-8 overall on the road. The Giants are 5-5 vs lefties compared to 5-11 vs righties. The Angels are sending out Jose Suarez who has an average game score his last seven starts of 36. This is his first start of 2020. Nice price to go against an overrated Angels squad. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-18-20 | Rays v. Yankees +113 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
912 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees As much as the public seems to like Blake Snell, his last five starts against the Yanks have averaged a 52 game score. Just slightly better than the league average game score which is 50. Tanaka on the other hand has simply owned the Rays with an average game score of 70 his last five starts against them. When looking at current form for the last seven starts overall, Snell is at 54 while Tanaka is at 51. From an offensive standpoint the Rays have a slight edge in wRC+ at 999 to 950. Rare chance to get the Yankees at home at an underdog price. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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08-17-20 | Nationals v. Braves -145 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
956 Washington at Atlanta Been very impressed with Toussaint thus far with a 23 to 5 SO to BB ratio on only 17.1 innings of work. That includes his worst start last time out at the NY Yankees. He was highly thought of as a prospect, and it’s starting to look like that is translating at the Major League level. Anibal Sanchez just hasn’t been the same this year. He had a huge return to form a couple years ago but right now he is struggling mightily. His three starts in 2020 have game scores of 45, 29 and 26. Washington is only 2-9 on the season vs right-handed starters. This is a very fair line on the Braves tonight. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-15-20 | Nationals v. Orioles +165 | 3-7 | Win | 165 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
964 Washington at Baltimore Surprisingly the Orioles have won 4 of the 6 meetings the past two seasons. This is what we call a one way rivalry, as the O’s lost part of its fanbase when the Nationals arrived. The Nationals are just 2-8 on the season facing right-handed starters. Baltimore is 2-1 vs lefties and their lineup shows a much better wRC+ vs lefties. The Orioles have six players that have a double digit increase in wRC+ against lefties. Plenty of value on the home dog on Saturday. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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08-14-20 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +142 | 1-5 | Win | 142 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
927 San Diego at Arizona The Diamondbacks have won 25 of the last 45 meetings, and they are catching the Padres off a huge four game series with the Dodgers. Kelly has an average game score of 56 his last five starts against the Padres. Lamet on the other hand is at 47 in his four career Arizona starts. When looking at the last seven overall starts by both hurlers, we see both with an average game score of 61. Both teams are 8-7 on the season vs righties. When comparing projected lineups we see San Diego with a 913 wRC+ and the Diamondbacks with a similar 921 wRC+. No way the host should be this size underdog here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-14-20 | Pirates +182 v. Reds | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
911 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati The Pirates were good to us yesterday, let’s look for a repeat performance. Pittsburgh is now 27-12 in this series. The last five starts between these two shows Kuhl with a 56 average game score, while Gray is at 49. Still don’t trust the Reds in this price range with a 3-10 record against right-handed starters. Similar to yesterday the Reds have a slight offensive edge, but not nearly enough to justify this price. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-13-20 | Pirates +163 v. Reds | Top | 9-6 | Win | 163 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
959 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Believe it or not but the Pirates have owned Cincinnati the past few years. Now 26-12 vs the Reds. And Trevor Williams has posted an average game score of 63 his last five starts vs Cincinnati. The Reds are also 3-9 on the season vs right-handed starters. We rate the Reds starter one tier better. Offensively these lineups are an 898 wRC+ for the Pirates and 932 for the Reds. Not nearly enough edges to support a line of this size. Plenty of value on the Pirates on Thursday. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-12-20 | Rays -149 v. Red Sox | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
925 Tampa Bay at Boston The Rays are 15-8 the past two seasons against the Sox. Snell has an average game score of 64 vs Boston. His last seven starts average a 55 game score overall. He’s been on a pitch count to start the season, but we love this Tampa Bay bullpen. The Rays are 8-3 against righty starters while Boston is just 3-5 vs southpaws. Good number to fade an overrated Rex Sox squad. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-11-20 | Diamondbacks -107 v. Rockies | 7-8 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
971 Arizona at Colorado Love the starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks who we rate two tiers higher than the inconsistent Freeland. Offensively this projected lineup shows a 955 wRC+ for the visitor, with an 836 wRC+ for the host. We don’t want to fade the Rockies on a regular basis vs southpaws, but this is a weak lineup against righties. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-11-20 | White Sox v. Tigers +105 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
962 Chicago White Sox at Detroit Like the two tier starting pitcher edge for the Tigers, as Alexander has been terrific out of the pen this year. Offensively the Tigers come in at a wRC+ of 923, while the Sox are at only 856. Detroit matches up very well vs lefties, while that is a major weakness for Chicago. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-11-20 | Braves +124 v. Yankees | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
955 Atlanta at New York Yankees We are looking at a two tier starting pitching edge for the Yankees, although Toussaint looks to be back where he was as a prized recruit. Offensively the Braves have the slightly stronger lineup, 1081 wRC+ as opposed to 1037 for New York. The Yankees rake against lefties, but are overpriced vs right-handed starters. Nice value here on the road dog. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-10-20 | Mariners +171 v. Rangers | 10-2 | Win | 171 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
915 Seattle at Texas Neither of these teams were expected to do much this season. In fact, you could have had either team at 100 to 1 to win it all. The Rangers currently have a 1 1/2 game lead on the Mariners, which tells you neither team is playing much different than expected. Our numbers show Texas with a slight 853 to 836 wRC+ offensively. Although the Texas starter does rate about two tiers higher than the young Mariners starter. That said, no way this line should be this high with a very small if any home field advantage. Worth a shot in a game we have much closer to a tossup. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-09-20 | Rockies -149 v. Mariners | 3-5 | Loss | -149 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
971 Colorado at Seattle The Rockies have won 7 of the 8 meetings with Seattle. They are also a perfect 5-0 vs left-handed starters, while Seattle is 3-9 vs righties. Colorado has a projected offensive wRC+ of 954 compared to the 852 for the Mariners. Big edge on the mound for the Rockies as well. Worked for us yesterday, no reason to buck the trend. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-08-20 | Rockies +107 v. Mariners | 5-0 | Win | 107 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
927 Colorado at Seattle The Rockies have won 6 of the 7 meetings with Seattle. They are also a perfect 4-0 vs left-handed starters, while Seattle is 3-8 vs righties. The Seattle starter has faced the Rockies three times with game scores of 34, 35 and -4. We would rather back the major league debut of the Rockies starter. Colorado has a projected wRC+ of 954 compared to the 852 for the Mariners. PLAY COLORADO |
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08-07-20 | Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
958 Detroit at Pittsburgh Under You won’t find too many batting orders as bad as these two tonight. Detroit has a wRC+ of 772 vs righties, while the Pirates are at a wRC+ of 780 against lefties. Both starting lineups combine to feature just one hitter above the league average of 100. That player is sitting in the number eight hole for Pittsburgh, Stallings the catcher. Both starters have underperformed thus far giving us a nice opportunity against this medium range total. PLAY UNDER |
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08-06-20 | Blue Jays +109 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
915 Toronto at Atlanta Showing the Blue Jays to have a tier advantage in starting pitching. As well as a 966 to 920 wRC+ in this contest. Home field advantage has been very low to non-existent so far in this shortened season. Catching plus money with the Jays is a solid bet. PLAY TORONTO |
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08-06-20 | Yankees v. Phillies +142 | 4-5 | Win | 142 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
926 New York Yankees at Philadelphia Cashed with the Phillies yesterday and see more of an edge today. We rate both starters in the same tier, although the Yankees have a very slight edge. From a hitting standpoint New York shows a powerful 1087 wRC+ but the Phillies are right behind with a 1000. Not a huge fan of this Philadelphia team coming into the season. But we can’t pass up the overlay in this contest. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-06-20 | Giants +151 v. Rockies | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
903 San Francisco at Colorado This line is just too high not to get a part of the Giants here. Both starters are graded in the same tier. From an offensive perspective the Giants are about league average with a 899 wRC+. The Rockies lineup is just slightly better at 954 wRC+. Colorado is being rated much too high in this betting marketplace. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-05-20 | Marlins +118 v. Orioles | 1-0 | Win | 118 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
985 Miami at Baltimore Wrong team favored here even with the slight pitching advantage for the O’s. This Baltimore offensive lineup is horrendous. Only one player in the lineup rates better than league average against righties, and that’s Dwight Smith at 103. As a whole Baltimore posts a 725 wRC+ while Miami comes in at 887 wRC+. Miami now has close to a league average offense after the Covid 19 situation. Look for the Marlins to come away with the road win. PLAY MIAMI |
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08-05-20 | Phillies +107 v. Yankees | 11-7 | Win | 107 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
981 Philadelphia at New York Yankees Money has poured in on the Phillies for good reason, this Yankees lineup isn’t great. In fact, the Phillies have a 990 wRC+ while the mighty Yankees are at 942 wRC+. We also rate the Phillies starter three tiers higher than the Yankees lefty starter. Not often we fade New York at home in this price range, but they shouldn’t be favored today. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-03-20 | Dodgers -130 v. Padres | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
969 LA Dodgers at San Diego Terrific pitching duel in the beautiful city on San Diego. We rate the Dodgers having a slight edge on the mound of one tier. From an offensive standpoint it’s all LA as we much prefer the Padres against lefties. Our wRC+ numbers have LA with a 1113 to 902 advantage. This series has been all Dodgers as LA has won 27 of the last 38 games played the past 2+ seasons. Not often that you get the best team in the National League with it’s best starter in this price range. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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08-03-20 | Giants +112 v. Rockies | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
965 San Francisco at Colorado A pair of righties on the mound today and our numbers show the Giants with a two tier advantage in that area. While both lineups are rather weak, the Giants have a 871 to 860 wRC+ advantage. When looking at history between these clubs, San Francisco and Colorado have split the past 38 meetings. This boils down to a slight edge for the visitor catching a plus money price. Sign us up. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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08-02-20 | Pirates +170 v. Cubs | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 20 m | Show | |
915 Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs Not impressed with either offense today against lefty starters. The Cubs are at 896 wRC+ while the Pirates come in at 789. Both under league average. Neither starter is impressive either as we rank the Cubs pitcher just one tier higher than the Pirates. So all our stats show the Cubs should be a favorite in the 140-150 range. Yet we are seeing the favorite posted in the 180 range. Plenty of room to sneak in a plus money win on the Pirates. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-01-20 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +139 | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
972 LA Dodgers at Arizona The Diamondbacks rake against lefties with a 1034 wRC+. Just slightly less than the Dodgers vs righties at 1081 wRC+. So the hitting is close to equal. We rate both starters in the same tier, so that also rates pretty even. When looking at team history these squads are 20 and 20 the past forty meetings. With Arizona getting last at bats the value is clearly on the host. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-01-20 | Padres -103 v. Rockies | 1-6 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
973 San Diego at Colorado Projected lineups favor the Padres 1054 wRC+ to 954 wRC+. Both teams hit lefties better than the league average of 900 wRC+. We rate the Padres starter one tier above the Rockies starting pitcher. San Diego should be favored. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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07-30-20 | Mariners +183 v. Angels | 8-5 | Win | 183 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
969 Seattle at LA Angeles Despite the Angels having the better squad the past three seasons, the Mariners lead this series 21 to 19. LA is a really good hitting team vs righties, but that isn’t the case vs southpaws. LA has a 937 wRC+ vs lefties which is just slightly better than league average. Only four Angels players perform better against left-handed pitchers. And Goodwin rarely plays against them and Simmons is injured. This line is simply too high considering the lineups and the starters on the mound. Worth a nice shot here at a big plus price. PLAY SEATTLE |
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07-29-20 | Royals v. Tigers -125 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
924 Kansas City at Detroit Very weak offensive lineup of 787 wRC+ for the Royals vs a lefty. Detroit sits at 899, basically league average vs the southpaw. Major pitching advantage here for the Tigers, who have a much bigger edge than the current line. Won’t back the Tigers many times this year as a favorite, but this game deserves it. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-29-20 | Diamondbacks +109 v. Rangers | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
903 Arizona at Texas Taking the plus money with the visitor here as this Texas lineup has a combined wRC+ of just 804 vs lefties. The Rangers have really struggled offensively in the early going, and we can’t see them lighting up this Arizona pitching staff. In what very well could be a low scoring game let’s back the NL squad. PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-28-20 | Cubs +102 v. Reds | Top | 8-5 | Win | 102 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
957 Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Much was expected from the Reds this season, but this club has struggled out of the gate. After Bauer, Castillo and Gray the Reds starting rotation really steps down in class. Cincinnati matches up really well vs lefties but steps down when facing right handed pitching. The Cubs don’t have a clear number one starter, but this team goes five deep in the rotation. Chicago also has nine players that rate better than league average in wRC+ against righties. Good matchup for the visitor. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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07-27-20 | Diamondbacks +114 v. Padres | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
903 Arizona at San Diego Really like this Diamondbacks team vs lefties. Today’s lineup is showing a 1020 wRC+, as opposed to the 926 wRC+ for the Padres. We also have a two tier advantage in starting pitching. As well as the Padres All-Star closer being unavailable today. PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-27-20 | Angels +108 v. A's | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
901 Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Prefer the Angels lineup here which posts a 1065 wRC+ as opposed to the A’s 993 wRC+. We also have a three level edge with our starting pitching. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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07-26-20 | Pirates v. Cardinals -136 | 5-1 | Loss | -136 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
968 Pittsburgh at St Louis The Pirate offense has been cold to start the season and grades out as a 859 wRC+ in this contest. After the top four batters not a single Pirate hitter rates league average. St Louis rates 967 wRC+ with this lineup, but the starting pitcher advantage for the Cards is huge. Hudson has been terrific for the host, while Keller has really struggled since his promotion. Instead of betting on his promise we can only go with what we have seen at this level, which is a fade of the Pirates young righty. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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07-26-20 | Marlins +150 v. Phillies | 11-6 | Win | 150 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
951 Miami at Philadelphia We question the Marlins starting Sierra vs a righty, but other than that we like the Marlins chances once again today. The wRC+ is 853 compared to the Phillies 991. But we actually prefer Urena to Velasquez on the mound. A bit of money has come on the visitor and we agree. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-25-20 | Marlins +170 v. Phillies | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
911 Miami at Philadelphia This was a good result for us yesterday, and the value is there for a repeat. The Philly offense has the big names against this no name Marlins squad. But when breaking down the wRC+ hitters on the field today the Philadelphia edge is only 45. While Zack Wheeler is a quality starter, we like Chad Smith just as well. Smith started last year on fire before tiring as the season went on. We like him to bounce back strongly this season. Too much value once again on the visitor. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-24-20 | Marlins +173 v. Phillies | 5-2 | Win | 173 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
957 Miami at Philadelphia These two have been very competitive the past two years with the Phillies owning a 20-18 record in this series. We really like the offensive moves of the Marlins in the offseason. Against righties Miami now has a wRC+ lineup of 930, better than the league average of 900. In fact, despite all the big name talent for the Phillies, this lineup of 994 today isn't nearly as dominant as the past two seasons vs the Marlins. While Nola rates 26% better than Alcantara in ERA+, the line overcompensates. Plenty of value on an improved Marlins team in the season opener. PLAY MIAMI |
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07-24-20 | Tigers v. Reds -162 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
954 Detroit at Cincinnati The Reds have a huge offensive edge in this contest. The league average team will have a wRC+ of 900, as the average player will post a 100 wRC+. The starting lineup for the Tigers here against a righty is 801, while the Reds vs a lefty with this lineup will be 1128. That's a whopping 36% better with every batter in the lineup. Cincinnati putting in Matt Davidson is a huge edge over the overnight lines as he smashes lefties to the tune of a 123 wRC+ the past three seasons. That makes only one Reds batter less than league average against lefties. From a starting pitcher standpoint we also rate the Reds to have a 25% ERA+ advantage. Despite Cincinnati being a sizable favorite, this line is simply too cheap to not back the Reds. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-23-19 | Nationals +166 v. Astros | 12-3 | Win | 166 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
903 Washington at Houston Strasburg & Verlander Stephen Strasburg has a 1.88 ERA and 66 average game score in his last seven starts. Justin Verlander has a 3.27 ERA and a 60 average game score in his last seven starts. The last three starts by the Houston righty have resulted in five home runs. That has been the concern all season for Cole and Verlander. The opposition swings for the fences because they have been so dominant. He has allowed 36 dingers in 223 innings this season. We saw the way Washington approached Gerrit Cole yesterday, we expect more of the same today. The starters and the lineups are much closer than this line suggests. It’s inflated based on the Astros need after losing home field edge yesterday. We will take the high plus money price on the Nationals, as this line should be much shorter. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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10-15-19 | Astros v. Yankees +140 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
912 Houston at NY Yankees Cole & Severino This handicap all comes down to value because you simply cannot make a case against Gerrit Cole. He’s been as dominant as any pitcher we have followed, with his lone weakness being the long ball. He has given up 29 homers in 212.1 innings this season. Players are just coming to bat and swinging from their heels against him. That said, this line from a value standpoint is all Yankees. The last two seasons New York in 9-7 vs the Astros. Only Tampa Bay has had similar success and they took Houston to the limit in the previous series. Luis Severino has put up game scores of 60, 70, 49 and 56 since coming back from his season long injury. The Yankees are better against right handed starters 74-42 vs 71-47. While Houston is very good on the road at 47-36, New York is 59-24 at home. No doubt Cole has a large edge on the mound, but Severino is capable of matching him. The Yankees in this price range at home is a bargain we haven’t seen all year. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -157 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
908 NY Yankees at Houston Paxton & Verlander Paxton faced the Astros twice this season with game scores of 57 and 28, the latter in this ballpark. Verlander also faced the Yankees twice with game scores of 64 and 50. The key to this handicap is how well the Astros have hit lefties this season. Overall 39-11 vs southpaws and 63-22 overall at home. It’s rare we get Verlander and his 2.34 home ERA in this price range. While James Paxton has an ERA a full run higher on the road. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-12-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +130 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
906 Washington at St Louis Scherzer & Wainwright The last two seasons St Louis is a combined 10-5 vs the Nats. Mad Max has faced the Cards twice this year with game scores of 51 and 55. Adam Wainwright in his two starts against Washington this season produced game scores of 61 and 56. Over the last seven starts Scherzer has a game score average of 56, while Wainwright’s is 57. Both teams are very equal vs righties as the Bats are 72-53 and the Cards are 74-58. Washington is 46-39 on the road, while St Louis is 51-33 at home. Adam Wainwright has pitched much better at home than on the road this year. He posts a 2.56 ERA at Busch Stadium and 6.22 ERA away from home. All his advanced numbers also show he favors this mound. Surprised by this very public line as we made this game much shorter. Great value on the home dog. PLAY ST LOUIS CARDINALS |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
914 St Louis at Atlanta Flaherty & Foltynewicz All hands on deck for both teams in this win or go home game in the National League. You couldn’t ask for two hotter starters as Flaherty has a 1.24 ERA and 75 average game score his last seven starts. Folty has a 1.51 ERA and 64 game score average over the same time frame. With an off day yesterday both bullpens should be in solid shape, with the starters other than Keuchel and Hudson all available. Look for a lot of mix and match here if either starter gets in trouble. But we don’t expect that as runs will come at a premium. PLAY UNDER |
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10-08-19 | Astros v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 135 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
910 Houston at Tampa Bay Verlander and Castillo RUN LINE PLAY The Rays are going to make it a bullpen day and we like the thinking. Houston has pounded lefties this season, while having a comparable record vs righties as the Rays. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough will likely only get two innings, which is much better than the four to five innings he would normally work filling in for an opener in the regular season. That leaves Poche and McKay as the only other lefties in the bullpen. Houston is 70-45 vs righties while the Rays are 65-43. Houston is 47-35 on the road while Tampa is 49-33 at home. The Stros are 22-8 over the past month while the Rays are 20-10. All the numbers are comparable except that Houston sends Justin Verlander and a likely Cy Young to the mound. Verlander has 32 starts this year, all on four days or more rest. He just threw 100 pitches on October 4th. So now on three days rest the Astros are bringing him back early for the first time all season. This line is being based on him pitching his usual length, but it would not surprise us at all if he is on some type of a pitch count. With that knowledge this line is extremely high. The Astros deserve to be favored, but there is plenty of value on the home dog here. Instead of calling for the outright Rays victory, we will take the generous 1 1/2 runs in a game with a 7 1/2 run total. PLAY TAMPA BAY +1 1/2 RUN LINE |
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10-03-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
918 Washington at Los Angeles Neither pitcher is prone to the long ball which is always a concern with a total in this range. Buehler has an excellent 11.20 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio at home. His WHIP is a microscopic 0.887 as he simply does not allow baserunners in Dodger Stadium. LA doesn’t hit lefties nearly as well as right-handed starters. 30-22 vs southpaws vs 76-34 against right-handed starters. Corbin has an unbelievable 0.59 ERA in his last five starts against this squad. In 30.1 innings of work only 13 hits allowed. We lean with the Dodgers here but the better play is to look for a low scoring contest. PLAY UNDER |
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10-02-19 | Rays +121 v. A's | Top | 5-1 | Win | 121 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
913 Tampa Bay at Oakland The Rays sit at 13-8 the past three seasons against the A’s. Charlie Morton faced Oakland twice this year with game scores of 78 and 65. League average once again is 50. What we really like about Morton is his ability to reduce home runs. He permitted just 15 in 194.2 innings this season. Sean Manaea has looked solid since coming back from a long IL stint. Tampa has a 32-25 mark against lefties this season, similar percentage to righties. But the A’s rake against lefties with a 35-14 record, but are less successful against right-handed starters at 62-51. While Oakland is a very good 52-29 at home, the Rays are among the league best on the road with a 48-33 mark. This game looks to be a dead even contest, yet we are getting a plus price on the road underdog. Can’t pass up the veteran Morton in this price range. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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09-23-19 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +132 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
956 St Louis at Arizona Wainwright & Young While money has come in on the Cardinals early, the value is now on the home Diamondbacks. St Louis clinched a playoff spot with the victory over the rival Cubs yesterday. They now have a three game lead over Milwaukee with six games to go in the season. All is right in Cardinal land, so we take advantage of an overconfident bunch here. Wainwright is pitching his best ball of the season, but four of his last six starts came against possible playoff foes Washington and Milwaukee. Not sure that same intensity will be there against Arizona. Alex Young has stayed under the national radar but he has posted a solid 3.27 ERA in his 74.1 innings of work this year. The Diamondbacks are 7-4 in his starts this season. While the Cards are 73-52 against right-handed starters this season, they are only 16-15 vs lefties. We al know how hot St Louis has been, but Arizona has held their own at 17-13 the past month. Nice price with the home dog here who continues to play good baseball while others have thrown in the towel. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-17-19 | Padres v. Brewers -123 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
954 San Diego at Milwaukee Paddock & Woodruff Brandon Woodruff returns from the injured list and is expected to be on a limited pitch count here. Which is all well and good as lefty Gio Gonzalez will follow him to the mound. Chris Paddock has been excellent in his last three starts, which is what is keeping this line very attractive for the host. But Paddock over his last seven starts is slightly below average with a 49 average game score. The Brewers are chasing the wild card game and have won 10 of 11 in its pursuit. The Padres on the other hand are just playing out the string of yet another disappointing season. With a lefty coming in early it’s tough for the Padres to set a lineup here for the full game. That means some of the starters will be in for a short stay for San Diego. Great price on a hot team at home. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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09-16-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
904 Washington at St Louis Strasburg & Hudson Big money move overnight toward the Nationals, but now the value is clearly on the host. St Louis has won 8 of 11 meetings the past two seasons. When comparing both starters the numbers are almost identical, and impressive. So really tough to make a decision based on that factor. Both clubs far equally well vs right handed starters, so that’s a wash. The Nationals are 40-35 on the road, while the Cardinals are 47-28 at home. Slight edge to St Louis. Over the last month the teams have virtually the same record, with St Louis being a game better. Recent 10 and 20 game breakdowns are saying the same thing. So here we have a game that should be lined in the pick ‘em range, and yet the host is a sizable underdog based on early line movement. We will take the sizable value here as Dakota Hudson looks for his seventh straight game score of 58 or better. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-13-19 | Padres -109 v. Rockies | 8-10 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
959 San Diego at Colorado Lucchesi & Hoffman Joey Lucchessi has been very consistent against the Rockies. His last five starts against them has produced an average game score of 56, including 71 and 61 his last two. The Rockies have struggled vs lefties all season with a 20-34 record. Jeff Hoffman has a 43 game score average his last seven starts. He has really been beaten by the long ball as of late allowing seven home runs in his last 12.2 innings of work. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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09-12-19 | Braves -120 v. Phillies | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
951 Atlanta at Philadelphia Teheran & Smyly Julio Tehran has been on a terrific run. In his last six starts five have been graded out at 59 or higher. His last two on the road were 67 and 69. He’s only permitted 17 home runs in 163.1 innings of work. Drew Smyly on the other had has really struggled with the long ball this year. He has allowed 29 in only 101.2 innings of work. In fact, the past three seasons the lefty has permitted 72 home run in 343.2 innings of work. In this ballpark that is the kiss of death. Atlanta is an impressive 22-11 vs southpaws this season, and 44-28 overall on the road. This number is very cheap. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-11-19 | Cardinals -144 v. Rockies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
957 St Louis at Colorado Hudson & Senzatela Antonio Senzatela has been a punching bag as of late. In his last seven starts he owns an average game score of 24. His ERA during that time is 14.03. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 12 to 15. Dakota Hudson has been his polar opposite. The young righty has a 60 average game score and a 2.03 ERA in his last seven starts. He faced Colorado once this season and posted a 67 game score at home. He has never pitched in Coors Field, which is the only negative for the Cards. The Rockies are 41-50 vs righties and only 35-35 at home. St Louis is 66-49 vs right handed starters, and 35-37 on the road. Over the last month Colorado has won 9 games while the Cards have won 22. St Louis has every edge we look for in a game, as we see the Rockies playing out the string. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-11-19 | Braves -124 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
951 Atlanta at Philadelphia Keuchel & Eflin Zach Eflin has faced the Braves twice this season. In 5.2 innings he has permitted 12 earned runs with a combined game score of 15. He has permitted four home runs in those 5.2 innings of work. On the season Eflin has allowed 23 long balls in 140 innings. Not a good combination pitching in this ballpark. Dallas Keuchel isn’t prone to home runs as a ground ball pitcher. Over the last two seasons he’s permitted 30 home runs in 295.1 innings of work. The Braves are 68-45 vs righties, while the Phillies are just 16-22 vs left handed starters. With Atlanta having a better road record than the Phillies do at home, we don’t mind the road favorite price. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-09-19 | Yankees -110 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
961 New York at Boston Paxton & Rodriguez The Yankees have dominated the Sox this season 13-5. Paxton has produced a solid 56 average game score against Boston his last five starts. Rodriguez has a 43 average game score against the Yankees his last five starts. Paxton is on quite a roll as of late with an average game score of 62 his last seven starts overall. Eduardo Rodriguez himself is doing quite well with a 54 average game score his last seven overall. But here’s the real advantage for the visitor. The Yankees are an outstanding 29-16 on the season vs lefties, while the Sox have struggled vs southpaws with a 20-26 mark. New York is 41-28 on the road, while Boston has struggled in Fenway with a 36-38 record. Let the 2019 dominance of the Yankees continue on Monday. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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09-08-19 | Nationals v. Braves +112 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
906 Washington at Atlanta Scherzer & Soroka Both pitchers have fared well against the opposition. Mad Max though hasn’t faced the Braves yet this season. Mike Soroka on the other hand has a 54 average game score in three starts against the Nats. While Scherzer has been good at not allowing homers, about one per nine innings the past three seasons. Soroka has only given up 11 long balls in 178.1 innings of big league work. That is simply outstanding. In a game with a total of 8.5 runs, that statistic could be the key to victory. Washington is 58-46 vs righties, while the Braves are 67-44 against the same. The Bats are a solid 37-34 on the road, but Atlanta has a strong 47-27 home mark. Catching the Braves at home in a plus money situation looks very favorable. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-07-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +110 | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
956 Chicago at Milwaukee Darvish & Gonzalez Both pitchers have fared well against the opposition, posting average game scores of 63 for Darvish and 62 for Gonzalez. But we prefer Gio and the Brewers here, as he is much less home run prone. On the season Gonzalez has permitted 8 home runs in 67.1 innings of work. The prior two years combined for 38 home runs in 372 innings. Darvish on the other hand has allowed 31 dingers in 152.1 innings this year. Along with 34 home runs in 226.2 combined innings in 2017 and 2018. In a game in which pitching should dominate, we want no part of the homer happy Darvish. Chicago also struggles vs lefties at 13-17 on the season, and are just 29-40 on the road this year. Look for the Brewers to shine here at a nice home price. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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09-06-19 | Rangers +123 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 123 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
915 Texas at Baltimore Burke & Bundy Brock Burke has been excellent in his first three starts of his Major League career. He has an average game score of 61 and he has not permitted a homer in 18 innings of work. We love backing unknown lefties the first time through the league. Dylan Bundy on the other hand is a home run machine. He has permitted 93 long balls in 479.1 innings of work the past three seasons. He has permitted 26 in 138 innings this season. Texas is 44-46 vs righties, while the O’s are 19-34 vs southpaws. The Rangers have a better road record than the Orioles do at home 29-44 to 22-47. Nice payout price here for what looks to be a solid road underdog against an undeserving favorite. PLAY TEXAS |
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09-05-19 | Twins +141 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-1 | Win | 141 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
971 Minnesota at Boston Perez & Eovaldi Martin Perez hasn’t faced the Red Sox since 2017, which favors the pitcher. Boston hasn’t hit lefties all year with a 20-24 record. Eovaldi continues to struggle off his injury stint, and has posted a 6.23 ERA on the season. Minnesota is an outstanding 69-37 vs righties, and 47-24 on the road. Over the last month the Twins have posted a 19-11 record, while the Sox continue to flounder around .500 with a 16-14 mark. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-03-19 | Twins +131 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-5 | Win | 131 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
969 Minnesota at Boston Dobnak & Porcello Randy Dobnak will get the start for the Twins tonight. He’s pitched out of the bullpen thus far. He only allowed less than half a homer a game this year in the minors, which is a concern in this ballpark. Rick Porcello has a 63 average game score his last five starts vs the Twins, but he allows too many long balls to gain trust against this team. Porcello has permitted 91 home runs the past three seasons, including 26 in 149.1 innings of work in 2019. Against this home run hitting lineup of the Twins, those numbers just won’t cut it. Minnesota is 68-37 vs righties, while the Sox are 54-39. Minnesota is 46-23 on the road while Boston is just 34-34 at home. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-02-19 | Padres +128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
907 San Diego at Arizona Quantrill & Leake Going against the line move here as we once again fade Mike Leake. The Arizona righty finally had an above average game for the Rays last time out. He went into San Francisco and produced a 63 game score. But his previous five game scores were 32, 43, 15, 38 and 35. With a league average number of 50, you can see how he has struggled. Cal Quantrill had produced game scores of 59, 57, 72, 46, 58 and 68, before struggling badly at home against the Dodgers last time out. We can forgive any pitcher who isn’t at their best against that Dodgers lineup. The Padres have the better record vs righties, 53-53 to 47-50. San Diego is also a very respectable 33-35 away, while the Diamondbacks are just 33-33 at home. We are getting great value here on a game we feel should be much closer to a coin flip contest. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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09-02-19 | Mets -105 v. Nationals | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
901 New York at Washington Syndergaard & Ross Thor has dominated the Nationals this season with game scores of 58, 71, 66 and 49. In his last six starts overall his strikeout to walk ratio was 35 to 7. But most important he is coming off his worst start of the season. A three inning, nine earned run game against the Cubs. Joe Ross is pitching better, but he only averages about five innings of work. Which puts this terrible bullpen in the game sooner. After facing the likes of the Marlins and Orioles, the Nationals will step up in class for this series. We don’t think Ross and this bullpen can get it done. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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09-01-19 | Mariners v. Rangers -123 | 11-3 | Loss | -123 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
976 Seattle at Texas Kikuchi & Martin It’s a bullpen day for the Rangers who send out Brett Martin as the opener. Despite not having a true starter, we prefer the Texas bullpen over Yusei Kikuchi. He had an outstanding game against Toronto two weeks ago. But beyond that the lefty has been a major disappointment. He enters this game with a 6.32 ERA in his last seven starts, along with a 43 average game score. But what really is the kicker is his home run rate. On the season his has permitted 33 homers in only 139.1 innings of work. Pitching in the heat and humidity of Texas isn’t the way to avoid the long ball. Seattle is just 15-29 vs lefties, while the Rangers are 24-25 against southpaws. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-28-19 | Indians -170 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
963 Cleveland at Detroit Civale & Zimmerman The Indians are 39-13 the past three seasons against the Tigers, including 13-1 this season. The Tribe is 51-38 vs righties while the Tigers are 29-72 vs the same. Cleveland has a 36-28 record on the road while Detroit is just 17-44 at home. The Indians are 17-13 the past month while Detroit is 9-21. Aaron Civale has an outstanding 1.82 ERA and an average game score of 62. He’s pitched 29.2 innings without giving up a home run. His mound counterpart is Jordan Zimmerman who comes in with a 6.48 ERA and a 44 average game score his last seven starts. The past three seasons Zim has allowed 69 home runs in 373.1 innings of work. What really puts the Tribe over the top is how it has performed against Zimmerman. In five starts the past three years Zimmerman has an average game score of 34, an ERA of 10.69 and has lasted just 16 innings. He has allowed 6 home runs and produced just 4 strikeouts. This is a terrific pitching advantage for the Indians. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-27-19 | Rangers +136 v. Angels | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
921 Texas at Los Angeles Angels Minor & Heaney Andrew Heaney has been red hot his last three starts with game scores of 84, 63 and 54. But overall he has posted an average of 56 his last seven outings. His last start was against these Rangers just a week ago and he went eight innings allowing just a single run. His strikeout to walk ratio was 14 to 0. It was an outstanding start, but with the loss fresh in the Rangers minds, we can see some major regression here. We still expect Heaney to be good, but this line is way too high. Mike Minor has an average game score of 56 his last five against the Angels. That includes a bad 28 just six days ago. His regression is expected to be a positive one. Minor’s last four road starts produced game scores of 84, 69, 42 and 56. The Angels are just 17-28 on the season vs lefties, and only 33-31 at home this season. Over the last month Los Angeles has posted a 9-21 record, and 3-7 in its last ten contests. No way should the Angels be a favorite in this price range. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-27-19 | Twins -107 v. White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
915 Minnesota at Chicago White Sox Pineda & Giolito The past three seasons the Twins have won 32 of 49 in this series, including 8 of 13 this season. Giolito has an average game score of 52 in his last five starts against Minnesota. But his last start just six days ago was a memorable one. He pitched a complete game shutout allowing only three hits. His strikeout to walk ratio was 12 to 0 and he had a 93 game score. But that outing is fresh in the minds of the Twins who previously put up seven runs in 10 innings against him earlier in the year. Pitchers who have extreme game scores and then face the same team tend to face major regression. Michael Pineda has an average game score of 57 against the White Sox in his last five starts against them. More impressively he has posted 53, 61 and 67 numbers against them this season. The Twins are 63-37 vs righties while the Sox are just 35-51. Minnesota is a very good road team with a 40-22 mark, while Chicago has struggled at home 33-32 on the year. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -130 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
954 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia Musgrove & Vargas The Phillies are 8-2 vs their cross state rivals the past two seasons. Jason Vargas has a 54 average game score in his last seven starts. Joe Musgrove is at 46 his last seven, but he did have an excellent 72 game score in his only start vs the Phillies this year. The Pirates are a weak 12-22 on the year vs left-handed starters. The Phillies are 52-43 vs righties. The visitor is 26-38 on the road this year, while Philadelphia is 38-28 at home. The Pirates broke out of a hitting slump in a big way the last two games hosting the Reds. But this team had scored just 13 combined runs the previous eight games. Now on the road vs a lefty we expect the Pittsburgh bats to go silent once again. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-24-19 | Braves +101 v. Mets | 9-5 | Win | 101 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
959 Atlanta at New York Mets Fried & Wheeler The Braves have dominated this series the past two seasons winning 22 of 33 meetings. Wheeler has been hit hard his last two starts against the Braves, with game scores of 23 and 36. The Mets are also just 13-17 on the season vs lefties. Atlanta is 39-25 on the road and 58-42 vs right handed starters. Max Fried has an average game score of 52 his last five against the Mets. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-23-19 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
918 Detroit at Minnesota VerHagen & Berrios The Twins are 18-10 vs the Tigers the past two seasons. Drew VerHagan has gotten three starts for Detroit with game scores of 54, 31 and 24. Those starts came against the White Sox, Angels and Mariners. Now he steps up in class to face the Twins. Jose Berrios has an average game score of 55 his last five against the Tigers. Detroit is 21-44 on the road and 28-70 vs righties. Let’s take advantage of the pitching mismatch. PLAY MINNESOTA RUN LINE -1.5 |
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08-21-19 | Nationals -143 v. Pirates | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
905 Washington at Pittsburgh Corbin & Musgrove Late comeback win last night for the Bucs, but it had to use its best relievers in the process. Patrick Corbin goes six innings consistently for the Nets, but Joe Musgrove has been very inconsistent for the host. Since April 27th Musgrove has struggled to put up back to back good starts. When pitching above a 50 game score he has come back with outputs of 21, 54, 24, 51, 21, 59, 61, 54, 40, 32, and 13. His last outing was an outstanding 71 against the Cubs, so we will very likely see regression here. Washington is a solid 53-41 vs righties this season, while the Pirates are just 11-21 vs left handed starters. The Nationals are also a quality 32-30 on the road, while the Bucs have a poor 25-35 home record. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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08-19-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -170 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
908 Colorado at Arizona Gonzalez & Gallen Sizable pitching mismatch in Arizona tonight. Chi Chi Gonzalez will be making his first ever start against this Arizona team, who have scored 6 or more runs in 6 of its last 7 games. Gonzalez in his last seven starts has failed to surpass the league average game score of 50. In fact, his average game score is just 40. Zac Gallen just pitched in Colorado for the first time and survived, which isn’t bad for a rookie starter. Now catching them a week later we expect the young righty to prosper. The Rockies are just 24-38 on the road this season. Can’t see them having much success tonight. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-19-19 | Mariners +170 v. Rays | 9-3 | Win | 170 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
911 Seattle at Tampa Bay Gonzales & McKay Seattle has won 11 of the last 16 meetings in this series. Gonzales has faced the Rays three times in the past two years with game scores of 58, 63 and 64. Over his last seven games overall he has an average game score of 53. Brandon McKay on the other hand is at a 49 average his past seven starts. Seattle has won 4 of 6 to start this road trip. The Mariners are showing plenty of value tonight. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-18-19 | Indians -113 v. Yankees | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
967 Cleveland at New York Clevinger & Sabathia CC and his home run trouble return for the IL to face his former team. Sabathia has permitted 24 home runs in only 90 innings of work this year, just shy of 2 1/2 homers per nine innings. He simply doesn’t have the stuff of his younger years, and facing this homer happy Indians offense isn’t the cure. Clevinger is coming off a 30 game score in his last outing against Boston. Before that he has pitched six straight starts of 59 or better game scores. Nice value on the Tribe here who are 10-10 vs the Yankees the past three seasons. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-16-19 | Mets v. Royals +160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 160 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
980 New York at Kansas City Syndergaard & Montgomery Mike Montgomery disliked his role as a long reliever for the Cubs, and was very excited to get the chance to start with the Royals. It’s worked out very well thus far with 81 and 47 game scores since the trade. Normally not a big strikeout pitcher he has a 19 to 1 SO to BB ratio since the trade. The Royals really wanted him and it looks like we may be on to something as KC seems to have tweaked his delivery. The Mets are only 13-16 on the season vs left-handed starters. They are also off huge back to back series’ vs the Nationals and Braves. We see a letdown here. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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08-16-19 | Brewers v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
952 Milwaukee at Washington Houser & Corbin None of the last ten games in this series has seen the losing team score more than four runs. Adrian Houser has an excellent 24 to 4 SO to BB ratio his last four outings. Patrick Corbin has averaged a 59 game score in his last seven starts. On the season he has only had one home start that graded out lower than the league average game score of 50. PLAY UNDER |
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08-15-19 | Mets v. Braves -120 | 10-8 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
908 New York at Atlanta Stroman & Teheran The Braves were good to us last night, and this matchup brings us back tonight. Julio Teheran has been very comfortable in the new Braves ballpark. His game scores at home this year are 48, 64, 62, 66, 22, 59, 62, 63, 58, 60 and 55. The only outlier of 22 was against the Mets the last time he faced them at home. With the win yesterday Atlanta is now 21-10 the last two seasons against New York. Marcus Stroman pitched really well in hopes of being traded with game scores of 68 and 70 before being dealt. But since the move to the big city his numbers have been 38 and 44. New York is only 27-38 on the road and just put its best hitter on the injured list. Since McNeil went down the Mets have lost all three games it played. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-14-19 | Mets v. Braves -142 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
960 New York at Atlanta Matz & Keuchen Major home/road splits from these two. Matz on the road this season has produced game scores of 32, 57, 45, 13, 33, 39, 59, 47, 41, 13, 63 and 51. Dallas Keuchel on the other hand has been solid at home with game score numbers of 60, 68, 63 and 60. The Mets are 13-15 on the season vs lefties, while the Braves are 17-10 against southpaws. Atlanta has won 20 of 30 meetings in this series the past two seasons. New York is 27-37 on the road this year while the Braves are 33-25 at home. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-13-19 | Red Sox v. Indians -101 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
916 Boston at Cleveland Sale & Clevenger The last two seasons Cleveland has a 7-4 edge over the defending champs. Chris Sale even at his best has long struggled against this Cleveland franchise. His last four starts against the Tribe have resulted in game scores of 49, 19, 27 and 25. His last five starts have produced an ERA of 9.97 with a 28 to 10 SO to BB ratio. Keep in mind despite his down season his SO to BB ratio on the year is 206 to 35. Needless to say he just hasn’t been himself against the Indians. Mike Clevenger is averaging a 66 game score in his last seven starts. In his home starts this year his game scores have been 67, 67, 59, 74 and 84. The Indians are 22-8 over the last 30 days while the Sox are 12-17. Cleveland is 25-12 on the season vs southpaws. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
955 Baltimore at New York Ynoa & Paxton The last seven meetings in this series has resulted in game totals of 16, 13, 15, 11, 12, 15 and 17 runs. Gabriel Ynoa has a game score average of 41 in his last seven starts. The Yankees who had combined to score 82 runs in its last nine games, was shutout yesterday at Toronto. With this being the first game of a doubleheader, the starters will be kept in the game longer in order to rest the tired bullpens. Keep in mind the Orioles have allowed 90 combined runs its last ten games. PLAY OVER GAME ONE |
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08-10-19 | Diamondbacks +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
963 Arizona at Los Angeles Young & Maeda Hard to believe with just how dominant the LA has been. But win last nights victory by Arizona, the Diamondbacks are now 27-24 the past three seasons against the Dodgers. Kenta Maeda started the year strong but he has struggled as of late His last three game scores have been 31, 29 and 48. His last five starts against Arizona have produced an average game score of 47. Considering league average is 50, you can tell he’s underperformed on a regular basis. Alex Young is a lefty that has never faced LA, which is something that we look for in our handicapping. In his last seven starts his average game score is 59. As good as the Dodgers are against righties 54-27, the team is less successful when facing southpaws 23-14. With a 17 game division lead the Dodgers have the ability to rotate starters, which gives us more value for the 59-57 Diamondbacks who are still fighting for a wild card spot. PLAY ARIZONA |
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