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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-25-17 | Mariners -128 v. Tigers | 9-19 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
971 Seattle at Detroit Much prefer King Felix here as he has pitched much better this season than many projected. While his velocity is down he has turned into a pitcher rather than a thrower. Zimmerman has been a bust since coming to Detroit and that Tiger bullpen is in shambles. Throw in the fact that Seattle is much better defensively and the Tigers are without future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera. Seattle hits 7% better than league average against righties, while the Tigers are 4% below average against right handed starters. PLAY SEATTLE |
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04-22-17 | Giants +101 v. Rockies | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
911 San Francisco at Colorado Like the pitching matchup here for the Giants as Moore rates 7% better than Senzatel. The Rockies are also a poor hitting team vs lefties at 10% below league average. The Giants hit righties 5% better than average and we prefer the San Francisco defense. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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04-21-17 | Mariners +113 v. A's | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
977 Seattle at Oakland Nice underdog price for the Mariners here who hit 11% better than league average against lefties, while the A’s hit righties 7% below league standards. Overall Seattle offensively has a 13% edge over Oakland and we have these starters rated virtually even. A nice plus price in a game that should be lined closer to pick ‘em. PLAY SEATTLE |
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04-21-17 | Tigers -136 v. Twins | 3-6 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
973 Detroit at Minnesota Verlander was pounded last time out by the Indians, a team that has had his number of the years. In fact, there were rumors that he was tipping his pitches, which the Tigers denied. Detroit simply pound left handed pitching at a whopping 22% better than league average. And we don’t think much of Hector Santiago anyway. Huge offensive edge here for the Tigers with an ace on the mound. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-19-17 | Giants -135 v. Royals | 0-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
979 San Francisco at Kansas City Rare opportunity to gran Mad Bum at a decent price. Kansas City struggles against lefties producing 8% less than average. Now it’s facing one of the elite southpaws in baseball. The Royals also are 5% worse hitting at home than league average. San Francisco has gotten off to a slow start which keeps this line in a positive range. Vargas doesn’t overpower the opposition so the Giants should hit him well. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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04-18-17 | Orioles v. Reds +153 | 3-9 | Win | 153 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
926 Baltimore at Cincinnati While the Orioles have the starting pitcher edge in this one, the teams are equal across the board in every other handicapping method. Keep in mind the Orioles are without its closer which limits the bullpen edge. Baltimore has gotten off to a great start because of an extremely high and non-sustainable home run to flyable ratio. The O’s will also be without a DH here which really hurts this big slugging team. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-18-17 | White Sox +182 v. Yankees | 4-1 | Win | 182 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
913 Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees While Severino was highly touted he hasn’t lived up to the hype in the early going. Here we are getting the #4 starter for the Yanks against the #2 starter for the Sox, and yet New York is a prohibitive favorite. We make this line much lower than the current markets, and are willing to back a White Sox team who are much closer in talent to the Yankees than the betting markets show. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-16-17 | Angels v. Royals +104 | 0-1 | Win | 104 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
920 LA Angels at Kansas City Limited analysis today because of travel restrictions. While many are believers in Tyler Skaggs we aren’t one of them. He does have potential but he’s currently overrated. Ian Kennedy is the perfect fit for this ballpark. As a fly ball pitcher he isn’t worried about being beat with the long ball at home. Kansas City, like Cleveland has been in a terrible slump with runners in scoring position. The Tribe broke out of that in a big way yesterday, we see the same for the Royals. Let’s get ahead of the curve and back KC at a bargain price. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-12-17 | Braves +104 v. Marlins | 5-4 | Win | 104 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
909 Atlanta at Miami Backing the much better starter here at an underdog price. Jaime Garcia is usually an afterthought when ranking MLB starters. Not because of his ability, but because of his health. When fully healthy we have Garcia rated 8% higher than league average. His counterpart Tom Koehler is 16% worse than league average. While the Braves hit better at home than on the road, Miami is an average hitting team in this building. The Braves has a sizable defensive edge as well which puts us squarely on the dog here. PLAY ATLANTA |
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04-10-17 | Astros +122 v. Mariners | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
917 Houston at Seattle The Astros have won 12 of the last 17 in this series, including 5 of the last 7 in Seattle. While James Paxton is a quality starter we really like what Charlie Morton has done when healthy. He was getting rave reviews last year and in spring training the positives continued. Now if he could just stay healthy. The Astros have the superior bullpen and the team really excels against left-handed pitchers. Producing 15% better than league average against southpaws. We have the Astros as the slight favorite here and the markets make them the underdog. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-09-17 | Giants v. Padres +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
962 San Francisco at San Diego The Giants are really struggling out of the game with just a single win on the season. San Diego entered the year with the lowest win projections in the league but are off to a nice 3-3 start. Clayton Richard has long been a journeyman in his major league career, but something has changed for the big lefty. He has changed his release point and has had great success with it. He was terrific in his first start and we see more of the same here. With a low total here we will take the 1 1/2 runs with the Padres. Did you know that taking San Diego +1 1/2 against San Francisco would have resulted in a 12-1 record the last 13 meetings. Good enough for us as we expect that trend to continue. PLAY SAN DIEGO + 1 1/2 on the RUN LINE |
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04-08-17 | Nationals +112 v. Phillies | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
903 Washington at Philadelphia While the starting pitching advantage is all Phillies we believe the Nationals hold plenty of value here. Washington has the better bullpen and the far better offensive team. In fact Washington is 7% better than league average against righties, while the Phillies are 9% worse against right handed starters. Guthrie pitched in the World Baseball Classic, so he’s already been involved in competitive baseball this season. While Nola has a bright future he is being overrated in the betting marketplace. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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04-07-17 | Dodgers -138 v. Rockies | 1-2 | Loss | -138 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
955 Los Angeles at Colorado Major advantages across the board here for the visitor. Huge advantage at starting pitcher as Freeland was unimpressive in the minors and we have him rated as one of the worst starters in baseball this season. The Dodgers own the much better defense as well as a major edge in the bullpen. LA hits lefties 11% better than league average, while the Rockies are 4% below average against left handed starters. The line has risen in this game but there remains solid value. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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04-05-17 | Pirates v. Red Sox OVER 8 | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
979 Pittsburgh at Boston Young Jamison Tailion takes the hill for the Pirates in his first career start at Fenway Park. It takes experience to know how to pitch in this building and he just doesn’t have it. Chris Sale on the other hand has the pressure of making his very first start in a Red Sox uniform. The Pirates rake against lefties hitting 24% better than an average team vs left handed pitching. Both teams also are above average in drawing walks, which of course leads to more runners on base. Boston hits righties at 12% better than league average. Pittsburgh hits well on the road an obviously the Red Sox hit better at home. We expect 9 runs to be scored here which gives us plenty of room for the over. PLAY OVER |
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04-04-17 | Yankees v. Rays -104 | 5-0 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
910 New York at Tampa Bay Going against the popular Yankees tonight with veteran CC Sabathia on the hill. While the big man had what you could consider a comeback year a season ago it’s still below standards for a number two starter. We much prefer the up and coming Odorizzi who rates higher than CC in our ratings. While the Yankees have the better bullpen as a whole, the main reason is the eighth and ninth inning specialists. Nw York will have a hard time getting to those two with a putrid long and middle relief corps. Tampa improved its offense this year and despite not having much of a home field advantage we like the Rays here. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-03-17 | Pirates +145 v. Red Sox | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
973 Pittsburgh Boston We expect a big bounce back year for the Pirates and are one of our season win wagers towards the over. The Pirates hit righties well and Porcello enters this season at an all time high in expectations. He won the Cy Young Award last year but a lot of the reason for his outstanding win/loss record was the runs the Sox scored in his starts. While the Sox are always dangerous at home, this line should be much smaller. The Pirates have something to prove this year and it starts in this opening series at Boston. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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04-02-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals +125 | 3-4 | Win | 125 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
904 Chicago at St Louis Huge rivalry game to start the season between two legendary clubs. Chicago is taking the field off winning the World Series, while the Cardinals look to bounce back from a disappointing year. While the Cubs are still the team to beat in baseball this year we expect quite a bit of regression. The defense was legendary last year as we can’t expect anything in that order this season. Chicago was also extremely healthy in the starting rotation. St Louis shored up its outfield defense as Dexter Fowler leaves the Cubs to put on a Cards uniform. While St Louis doesn’t have the starting rotation the Cubs do, we really like Martinez who goes today. Lester was unbelievable at home last year, while only very good on the road. The emotion will all be on the host here as the Cards look to bring down the Cubbies. Keep in mind last year Chicago owned just a 10-9 record in this series, as the Cards played them better than anyone in baseball. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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10-28-16 | Indians +185 v. Cubs | Top | 1-0 | Win | 185 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
901 Cleveland at Chicago While we love Kyle Hendricks and the job he has done all season, the betting value is all on the Indians. Josh Tomlin is unflappable and pitching in this environment will not affect him. He’s very similar to Corey Kluber in that he has excellent control and rarely walks a batter. With the Cubs being a very patient team they will have their hands full with Tomlin and the rested Cleveland bullpen. Too much value not to take the Tribe. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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09-28-16 | Mets -114 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
907 New York at Miami Surprised by the low line in this one as Lugo has been excellent for the Mets since his promotion. With New York holding on to a wild card spot and Miami playing out the string we see value in the visitor. Especially when you consider the emotional state of the Marlins. After the terrible tragedy of Jose Fernandez the team rallied around his memory in the first game back to action. Now after its all settled in the team played lackluster yesterday. We expect more of the same on Wednesday. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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09-05-16 | Rangers -120 v. Mariners | 6-14 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
975 Texas at Seattle The Rangers have owned the Mariners this year and you could see by the looks of the Seattle players in the last series that they are defeated. Camels is in the prime of his career while King Felix has started to slide. He no longer is a power pitcher and he must get by with his years of guile. We have a confident bunch here on a mission with the better starter on the mound. No need to complicate the situation past that. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-31-16 | Diamondbacks +160 v. Giants | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
903 Arizona at San Francisco Shelby Miller returns to the club after having a terrible season before being sent down. He’s a much better pitcher than he has shown this year and we expect a rebound. It’s even better from a betting standpoint as most of the general public has written him off. But this handicap is more of a play against Matt Moore who threw a career high 133 pitches trying to throw a no-hitter last time out. He really labored hard the last couple innings of that start and it’s sure to affect him here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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08-30-16 | Padres v. Braves -153 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
956 San Diego at Atlanta Huge starting pitching edge here for the Braves as Julio Teheran runs circles around Edwin Jackson. Jackson did pitch well in his first few returning starts but has been pummeled since. The Braves have the far superior defense, one of the biggest advantages you will ever find. San Diego is extremely poor offensively when taking to the road. A huge dichotomy with the way San Diego hits at home. Atlanta also hits righties much better than the Padres. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-29-16 | Marlins v. Mets +143 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 143 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
904 Miami at NY Mets Jose Fernandez pitches lights out at home as he is nearly unbeatable, but the same cannot be said when he travels. For some reason he’s just not the same pitcher. Good but not nearly as great. The Marlins also don’t hit nearly as well away from home. Rafael Montego was the prized pitching prospect just a couple years ago. He had a taste of the majors but never showed his potential. Now getting a spot start as an afterthought we see extreme value on this young righty. The Mets own the better bullpen, stronger defense and hit well at home. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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08-28-16 | Reds +104 v. Diamondbacks | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
961 Cincinnati at Arizona On a nice little run here after cashing 8 of 9, let’s keep things going with the underrated Cincinnati Reds. While we never like to bet on a hurler named Homer we will make an exception on Sunday. Since coming off the DL Bailey has been better than expected, and his teammates are knocking the cover off the ball. Cincinnati owns the better relief pitching which has been a main reason this Reds squad has gone under the radar. Archie Bradley was highly thought of in the minors but he’s yet to put it all together at the major league level. Money is coming in on the visitor and we firmly agree with this line move. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-27-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers -117 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
904 Chicago at Los Angeles Very cheap price here on the Dodgers at home with a rejuvenated Julio Urias. The youngster struggled out of the gate when first brought up to the Big Show, but has settled down nicely since. He’s been more consistent as of late and he’s really coming into his own. After blowing a late lead yesterday we are very confident of a rebound tonight from the Dodgers. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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08-26-16 | Pirates -122 v. Brewers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
957 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee It’s well publicized that the Pirates have struggled over the years in Milwaukee. But we are willing to buck history with the better team here. The Pirates have a slight edge among starters but have huge advantages offensively. Pittsburgh also hits righties very well on the road, while the Brewers have struggled here against right handed starters. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-25-16 | Braves +160 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 160 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
905 Atlanta at Arizona Matt Wisler returns to the starters role here on Thursday to take on the always inconsistent Diamondbacks. While Arizona does have a bit of an edge between starters, the rest of the intangibles are virtually even. Atlanta is playing much better ball than earlier in the season and the line on this game is much higher than we anticipated. Dogs in this range have been good to us as of late and witnessed by the Orioles yesterday. Let’s take the shot with the dog here who has plenty of bite. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-24-16 | Orioles +154 v. Nationals | 10-8 | Win | 154 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
973 Baltimore at Washington Nice value here on the Orioles who hit righties very well. This is a rival series that means more to the Orioles who lost fans when Washington was given a new franchise. We will gladly take an American League team in this price range in an interleague contest. The teams are matched up pretty evenly and yet the price is a real bargain for the visitor. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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08-23-16 | Phillies +155 v. White Sox | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
929 Philadelphia at Chicago Jake Thompson is another in a long line of talented starters making his way up to the majors this year with the Phillies. While his counterparts have gotten plenty of accolades at this level it wouldn’t surprise to see Thompson being the ace for years to come. Carlos Rodon was considered a stud before joining the big league club, but it hasn’t been easy going for the lefty. While he has shown glimpses Rodon hasn’t put it all together as of yet. We will back the visitor here as we rate these to clubs similar and the tariff is quite high on the host. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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08-22-16 | Indians -160 v. A's | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
961 Cleveland at Oakland Carlos Carrasco really showed us something last time out as it was clear he didn’t really have his stuff. But yet he continued to fight throughout the game and give his team a chance for victory. That’s exactly what Carrasco and Kluber bring to this Indians team. The Indians own a huge defensive edge in this game, one of the largest of the season. While many will point to a large starting edge for the Tribe, it’s the bullpen which we feel is just as big of an advantage. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-21-16 | Nationals v. Braves +171 | 6-7 | Win | 171 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
Computer problems on Sunday so no analysis given, sorry. 906 Washington at Atlanta PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-19-16 | Blue Jays v. Indians -121 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
922 Toronto at Cleveland The Indians rake against lefties and here they take on Francisco Liriano having a terrible year and switching leagues. The Indians have been very dangerous at home all season and are a confident bunch in this building. Off a solid come from behind win last night over the White Sox we look for the Tribe to ride that wave again tonight. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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08-18-16 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
959 Arizona at San Diego Archie Bradley was highly thought of in the minors but in a small sample size in the show he has really struggled. Paul Clemens is a journeyman who wouldn’t even be on the staff if the Padres didn’t clear house at the trade deadline. Neither bullpen rates very highly and we expect both to be used tonight. The Padres return from a long road trip ending in Tampa Bay, and the bullpen has gotten used quite a lot. While San Diego hasn’t hit a lick on the road they have played well offensively at home, averaging 6.5 runs per game this month. PLAY OVER |
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08-15-16 | Marlins v. Reds +118 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
902 Miami at Cincinnati The loss of Stanton for the remainder of the season is a huge blow to this Marlins club that had a real chance of a strong run towards the playoffs. While the team is used to him and his injury past the rest of the roster lacks that powerful threat. David Phelps gets the spot start here we we can’t expect more than five innings here, that puts the pressure on a bullpen that has logged a great amount of innings as of late. Finnegan is a much better pitcher now than early in the season. He should fare well against a Miami team that struggles to hit on the road. Cincy has been a real money maker as of late, no reason why that can’t continue. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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08-13-16 | Rays +158 v. Yankees | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
913 Tampa Bay at NY Yankees After all the excitement with yesterdays final game for Alex Rodriguez, we don’t expect the home crowd to be quite as electric here. While Tanaka is an excellent starter his strikeout numbers are nowhere near where they were before his injury. The bullpen is also way down after letting the 8th and 9th inning lockdown relievers go. Tampa has the better defense and Matt Andriese is a solid starter. Tampa has hit righties well and we expect this game to go to the more complete Rays. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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08-12-16 | Mariners +116 v. A's | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
08-10-16 | Padres v. Pirates -157 | 4-0 | Loss | -157 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
956 San Diego at Pittsburgh Huge edges here for the homesteading Pirates. Pittsburgh hits righties much better than do the Padres. The Pirates are a terrific hitting team at home while the Padres struggle scoring on the road. Pittsburgh owns the better defense and the much better bullpen. So it all comes down to the starters. While Ryan Vogelsong isn’t a starter we will back often in the favorite role, we do so here with a play against Edwin Jackson. Jackson is a retread who has never came close to living up to his potential. He has bounced around the league for a decade and continues to be released. Because of a couple of decent starters with the Padres we get tremendous advantage going against him today. We don’t normally lay these type of numbers but we simply cannot pass on the value. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-09-16 | Tigers +101 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
(923) Detroit at (924) Seattle Play: Detroit Tigers Significant starting pitcher edge for the Tigers here, as LeBlanc is clearly the weakest link in the Mariners rotation. Detroit is the better hitting team, especially on the road. The Tigers have a massive edge as they absolutely kill left handed starters. Seattle has the better bullpen but that’s not enough to even this contest up. PLAY DETROIT TIGERS |
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08-08-16 | Braves +145 v. Brewers | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
953 Atlanta at Milwaukee Whalen struggled out of the gate in his first start but settled down as the game went on. He’s a talented starter that the Braves feel will be in intricate part of its future. Milwaukee can’t be trusted as a favorite of this magnitude and the Braves are hitting the ball really well with the addition of Kemp from the Padres. Milwaukee struggles against righties which gives us an additional edge with the dog. PLAY ATLANTA |
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08-07-16 | Angels v. Mariners -121 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
924 LA Angels at Seattle Cheap price here for the homesteading Mariners. There is a slight edge on the mound with the starters and LA hits lefties well, but it’s not enough of an edge to look that way. Seattle hits much better at home and this bullpen totally dominates the Angels. Seattle based on recent roster moves is setting up this bullpen to be elite. Mariners are the better team and we get them here at a very cheap price. PLAY SEATTLE |
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08-05-16 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -131 | 9-0 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
930 Boston at Los Angeles Cheap number for the Dodgers playing at home. LA hits far better in this park than Boston does on the road, and without the DH that means no Big Papi for the visitor. Despite the season Steven Wright is having we prefer Kasmir on the hill. The bullpen edge for the Dodgers is huge and LA plays the better defense. Boston coming off an extra inning game and traveling sure doesn’t help their cause. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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08-04-16 | Rangers +124 v. Orioles | 5-3 | Win | 124 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas at Baltimore AJ Griffin is an underpriced commodity based on his injury history, missing 2014 and 2015. Did you know his career record is 25-12? He doesn’t blow you away with amazing strikeout numbers, he’s just a solid MLB pitcher, and that’s not sexy Wade Miley is making his first start since being traded to the Orioles. He is 1-6 in his last 7 games started and pitching in this building isn’t as easy as pitching in the AL West. His ERA has gotten higher each of the last three seasons while his K/9 ratio has dropped. Texas as a team is hitting .306 against him this year and .302 last year. PLAY TEXAS |
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08-03-16 | White Sox v. Tigers -120 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
920 Chicago at Detroit Strength on strength here as the Tigers pound left handed starters and Cris Sale is an elite starting pitcher. Sale hasn’t been nearly as dominant as he was out of the gate, yet he’s still being priced too high in our opinion. Michael Fulmer has been everything as advertised and more for Detroit. He has become the most consistent and best starter on the staff. The Tigers edges offensively put this game on our card as we expect the dominant pitcher to be wearing a Tiger’s uniform on Wednesday. PLAY DETROIT |
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08-02-16 | Nationals -148 v. Diamondbacks | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
961 Washington at Arizona It was batting practice for the Nationals yesterday, and we like that situation. The Arizona bullpen is poor and there was a lot of pitches thrown by that bullpen last night. That puts a great deal of pressure on Robbie Ray. Washington is 66-26 as a favorite after having 12 or more hits, and they love hitting lefties. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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07-30-16 | Phillies v. Braves -126 | 9-5 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
904 Philadelphia at Atlanta Decent pitching edge here for the Braves as we prefer Teheran over Hellickson. Philadelphia is a poor hitting team on the road and it struggles against righties. Hellickson is on the trade block right now so it’s possible the Philadelphia management will extend his time on the mound even if he’s not pitching well. PLAY ATLANTA |
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07-29-16 | Astros -130 v. Tigers | 6-14 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
971 Houston at Detroit The Astros have improved all season as the young studs are finally playing up to expectations. The addition of Bergman brings added excitement in the Astros clubhouse and this team is playing very confidently at this time of the season. McHugh is a big starting advantage over Boyd and the Astros have the much better bullpen. Houston hits well against lefties and should knock the young southpaw around. PLAY HOUSTON |
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07-27-16 | Tigers +103 v. Red Sox | 4-3 | Win | 103 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
959 Detroit at Boston Huge pitching edge here for the Tigers as Michael Fulmer has not only been outstanding, but consistent as well. The same cannot be said of his mound counterpart Eduardo Rodriquez. When ER was brought up last season he was terrific, but as the season unfolded and again this year he has struggled. Lefties have a solid edge the first time around the league but when teams get film on him he needs to make adjustments, Eduardo has yet to make those adjustments. The Tigers knock lefties around really well and the Boston bullpen has been a disappointment because of overuse. PLAY DETROIT |
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07-26-16 | Rockies +175 v. Orioles | 6-3 | Win | 175 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
919 Colorado at Baltimore When taking a sizable underdog you go into the game knowing you are at a disadvantage. But the disadvantage in this game simply does not add up to this humongous line. The pitching matchup when counting in the relievers is at best a wash. That puts all the emphasis on the Orioles offense against the Rockies hitters. While Baltimore is better there is no way the advantage is as high as the betting markets. We are getting a major advantage in the line and that’s how a pro grinds out advantages. PLAY COLORADO |
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07-25-16 | A's +121 v. Rangers | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
961 Oakland at Texas Sizable starting pitching edge for the A’s here as Perez in this price range is a go against starter. While Texas owns the relief pitching edge its certainly not enough to make up for the starting pitching disadvantage. Oakland hits lefties well while Texas is basically average teeing off against right handed starters. Nice value here on the underdog. PLAY OAKLAND |
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07-22-16 | Diamondbacks +110 v. Reds | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
905 Arizona at Cincinnati Another chance to go against the Reds in the role of a favorite. Arizona has the edge from a starter perspective and the D’Backs are virtually even in all other handicapping numbers.SportsDataBase.com shows us that Cincinnati is 81-141 with a negative ROI of 17.4% when playing a team with a better record. That ROI jumps to 32.6% if the Reds are playing at home.PLAY ARIZONA |
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07-20-16 | Orioles v. Yankees -158 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
922 Baltimore at NY Yankees The Yanks were good to us last night and we really like the situation they are in again on Wednesday. Huge pitching advantage for the Yankees not only in the starter but also in the bullpen. New York also has the much better defensive play, with the O’s having the slightly better lefty/righty bats in this contest. Pineda’s numbers are not a reflection of the way he has pitched this year. Bad luck has been a major problem as his high BABIP is simply non-sustainable. According to SportsDataBase.com the Orioles are8-31 with a negative 55.7% ROI as a road dog off a road game when playing a team with a worse record. Now 4-14 in that role this season. Baltimore is also 28-64 for a negative 31.9% ROI off a road game in which it lost by 5 or more runs. We simply do not trust Gallardo here and the front end of this Baltimore bullpen. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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07-19-16 | Orioles v. Yankees -108 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
964 Baltimore at NY Yankees Solid starting pitcher edge for the host as Eovaldi is a much better pitcher than his traditional numbers show. The bullpen is a huge edge, especially if this game becomes a high scoring affair. New York has the far better defensive numbers, but Baltimore is the better hitting team. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Orioles are 8-30 as a road dog after a road game when playing a team with a worse record. That’s a whopping 54.5% ROI going against the Birds. PLAY NEW YORK YANKEES |
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07-18-16 | Rays +134 v. Rockies | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
921 Tampa Bay at Colorado Contrarian play at its finest here as nobody wants any part of Drew Smyly pitching in altitude. But a closer look at his advanced stats show he has pitched much better than his numbers. A poor BABIP and an extremely high HR to FB rate have been the culprits. The Rays have performed much better against lefties this year posting an 11-11 record, as opposed to a horrendous mark against righties. Anderson has been good for the Rockies but Smyly is the better pitcher. With defensive and relief pitching edges we back the Rays here. Especially when you consider Tampa Bay has hit much better on the road. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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07-17-16 | Orioles -109 v. Rays | 2-5 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
967 Baltimore at Tampa Bay Uber prospect Dylan Bundy makes the start today for the O’s. Bundy was highly thought of in baseball circles before Tommy John surgery. He’s been pitching out of the Oriole bullpen as he’s looking to get back to where he was in his minor league career. Bundy has been pitching well in relief, and while he will be on a pitch count here we like him enough to back him on Sunday. The Orioles tee off on righties and Baltimore continues to surprise in the standings. Tampa Bay has been a disappointment and now there is talk of the team being sellers at the trade deadline.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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07-16-16 | Brewers -101 v. Reds | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
905 Milwaukee at CincinnatiWe came up a run short yesterday with our play on the Brewers, but we are back on Milwaukee today. The visitor owns the much better starter and the Reds really struggle against right handed starters. The bullpens and the defense gives us a slight edge and we still have these historical edges. The Reds are 80-140 playing a team with a better record, and 20-45 in that situation at home. Let’s back the Brewers to even up the series.PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-15-16 | Brewers +138 v. Reds | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
955 Milwaukee at CincinnatiCan’t understand the early money coming in on the Reds here. Cincinnati has proven themselves not to be favored over virtually anyone. The Reds are a poor hitting team against righties and the starting pitcher matchup is equally week from both sides.According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com Cincinnati is 79-140 when playing a team with a better record. That’s an 18.2% ROI. They are also 19-45 at home when playing a team with a better record, a whopping 35.9% ROI. Simply put the Reds should in no way be a favorite of this magnitude here, even against Matt Garza.PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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07-10-16 | Yankees v. Indians -131 | 11-7 | Loss | -131 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
918 New York at Cleveland The 11 inning victory yesterday for the Yankees is costly when looking at the available relief pitchers for today. Betances threw 21 pitches, Miller 35 and Chapman 32. Those were season highs for your 8th and 9th inning relievers. With a weak long and middle relief corps for New York, Tanaka will have to go very deep here for this not to hurt the visitor. Carrasco rates slightly better from the starter standpoint and other than Allen and Hunter the rest of the Tribe bullpen is available. Better bats and a big home field advantage help the Tribe this afternoon. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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07-09-16 | Braves +168 v. White Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
979 Atlanta at Chicago The Braves shocked the Sox yesterday as they pounded Chris Sale. We expect that positive momentum to continue on Saturday. Chicago used four pitchers out of the pen and threw 72 pitches in doing so. While the starter edge favors the Sox, the team as a whole has been in a severe down spin. The Braves are 9-6 this year off a game in which its bullpen has allowed multiple runs. Bad teams off a win are 73-75 this year with an ROI of 10.4%. We will take advantage of an inflated line here and back the dog. PLAY ATLANTA |
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07-08-16 | Mariners -106 v. Royals | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
927 Seattle at Kansas City Short and sweet. We have a sizable starting pitching edge to go along with the better offense. The defensive and relief pitching angles are virtually even, and the Mariners hit much better against righties than do the Royals. We will back the team who blew a ninth inning lead last night. PLAY SEATTLE |
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07-05-16 | Angels v. Rays -145 | 13-5 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
970 Los Angeles at Tampa Bay Sizable pitching edge for the host as we simply can’t trust Tim Lincecum on the hill. While the Angels own the better bullpen all other advantages are with the host. A significant edge is defensively and with an offense that performs much better in this building. Tampa has also fared better against righties while the Angel offense is less than average on the road. According to SportsDataBase.com the Angels are 19-46 -35.0% ROI as a dog off a road game in which the bullpen allowed multiple runs. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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07-04-16 | A's v. Twins -118 | 3-1 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
922 Oakland at Minnesota Based on the year Nolasco is having this is a huge pitching edge for the Twins. Minnesota owns the much better defense and the other overall stats are a wash. According to SportsDataBase.com the A’s are 19-45 with a -34.2% ROI as a dog when facing an opposing starter with an ERA of over 4.0. The Twins on the other hand are 25-11 as a favorite off a home comeback win. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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07-03-16 | Pirates +140 v. A's | 6-3 | Win | 140 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
977 Pittsburgh at Oakland The Pirates were good to us last night as they outlasted the A’s. We’re going right back with the Bucs here as we feel this starting pitcher matchup is much closer than what it looks like on the surface. Pittsburgh rakes against righties and the A’s have a lineup which has struggled at times with left handers. Too much of a gap between these two in this line as we feel the Pirates have plenty of value tonight. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-02-16 | Pirates +140 v. A's | 4-2 | Win | 140 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
927 Pittsburgh at Oakland Major go against spot here for the A’s who have Rich Hill returning from the DL. The Pirates pound lefties and the price is inflated by throwing an unknown starter. This game is one of those system plays that take advantage of a named pitcher who will be very careful on the mound today. The better hitting Pirates at a nice underdog price is the play today. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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07-01-16 | Orioles -102 v. Mariners | 2-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
973 Baltimore at Seattle |
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06-30-16 | Cubs -124 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
905 Chicago at New YorkNice time to go against the fading Mets after the Nationals took it to them in a key divisional battle. According to SportsDataBase.com Chicago has been outstanding after winning and never trailing posting a 79-47 record with an 11.5% ROI. This team is also 35-14 with a 17.6% ROI as a favorite after the bullpen went at least an inning without allowing a run. The Chicago bullpen has the edge here and it’s set up perfectly for this series. The starting pitching edge is slight for the host but all other intangibles point toward the Cubs.PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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06-28-16 | Dodgers -131 v. Brewers | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
905 Los Angeles at MilwaukeeThe Dodgers bullpen went 4 innings of shutout ball yesterday which portends well for the visitor tonight. Urias has been outstanding as of late after getting hit hard early on in his first few tastes of the majors. LA is 37-13 as a favorite after allowing 6 hits or less according to SportsDataBase.com. The Dodgers own every edge in this contest with the exception of possibly late inning relief as Jansen had to throw 23 pitches yesterday. Nice price for a team with solid edges all around.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-27-16 | Cardinals v. Royals -115 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
968 St Louis at Kansas City The Cardinals are very good against lefties but Danny Duffy is finally living up to his high praise when coming up in the system. The ratings we use have him clearly the better pitcher here as Wainwright has been slow to come back to his previous form after TJ surgery.According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Royals are 22-11 off a home game i which they permitted 6 or fewer hits. Also, 32-13 off a home game in which they scored 5 or more runs. With Alex Gordon back in the lineup this KC offense is much more dangerous. With the bullpen in good shape after a nice start yesterday we will back the Royals here in this inter league rivalry contest.PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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06-26-16 | Mets -140 v. Braves | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
907 NY Mets at Atlanta Amazingly the Braves are just 13-33 after playing in extra innings. That points to a weakened bullpen. It also means the starter the following day has to go deep in the game. With Norris on the hill that’s a major advantage for the Mets. According to SportsDataBase.com New York is 46-17 as a favorite after a game as a road favorite in which it won and never trailed. That points to the strength on this Mets bullpen. New York has advantages across the board in this contest and the line is priced very fairly. Let’s look for Bartolo Colon to provide the betting value we often see with him on the mound.PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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06-25-16 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +113 | 10-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
968 Toronto at Chicago Wrong team favored here in our opinion as Gonzalez is a major upgrade on Dickey when in comes to putting runners on base. The major edge is in bases on balls as Dickey and his knuckleball produce a great deal of walks. With virtually every other category being even the Sox should have been installed as the slight favorite here. In what we consider a pick em game we will gladly take the plus money with the host.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-24-16 | Indians -107 v. Tigers | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
919 Cleveland at Detroit There was a long time when the Tribe couldn’t get over the hill against the Tigers. But that dominance is no longer in play as Cleveland is no longer intimidated by the Motor City.Cleveland owns the clear pitching edge here and the Tigers are coming off an extra inning game in which it used four pitchers for five innings. The defense is also an edge for the visitor and the price is right. It’s not often you get Danny Salazar in this price range.PLAY CLEVELAND |
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06-22-16 | Nationals v. Dodgers -130 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
908 Washington at Los Angeles Significant pitching and defensive edges for the Dodgers here as Urias has gotten better each time out. The LA bullpen also is in a positive situation after going more than an inning without allowing an earned run. Washington hasn’t been able to take advantage of pitchers with an ERA of 4 or more, posting a 110-162 record with a negative ROI of 17.2% as per SportsDataBase.com.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-21-16 | Phillies +127 v. Twins | 10-14 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
977 Philadelphia at MinnesotaSimply can’t trust Duffey and the Twins here in the favorite role. We are well aware of the Phillies lack of offense but Nola is a superior pitcher, and he’s in the underdog role. Philly has the relief and the defensive edges to stymie this questionable Twins offense.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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06-21-16 | Rays +162 v. Indians | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
963 Tampa Bay at ClevelandKluber is often overpriced despite no fault of his own. The Indians just don’t hit when he takes the mound. It’s been a long term problem that has cost him many wins over the years.Cleveland must face highly regarded Blake Snell tonight, a pitcher with a bright upside. The Rays own the lefty/righty hitting advantage and the defense and relief advantages are minimal. Good price on Tampa Bay Tuesday night.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-17-16 | Rockies v. Marlins -104 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
956 Colorado at MiamiThe Rockies have long been a team that you want to play against on the road. The altitude adjustment is such that this team has a strong home advantage but has been a consistent money burner on the road.Here we find a team that doesn’t hit lefties all that well and is subpar offensively away fro home. Nice price on a quality starter at home for the Marlins.PLAY MIAMI |
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06-15-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -170 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
968 Detroit at ChicagoWe don’t often dabble in lines this high but we feel this number is a bargain based on the over adjustment to current form with Sale. He’s still an elite pitcher going against a journeyman in Pelfrey. The Tigers starter is only going 5.3 innings a start which opens up the Chicago batters to one of the worst bullpens in baseball once again. The host owns major advantages all around except for the lefty/righty hitting category, which in no way measures up to the pitching and defensive edges for the host.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-12-16 | Royals v. White Sox -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
922 Kansas City at Chicago Return visit to the mound for Ventura after being thrown out last game for hitting Manny Machado. He’s struggled this year and the coaches were on him for continuing to headhunt. Because of his past we expect Ventura to stay away from the inside of the plate here, which will only help the White Sox hitters. We rate Rodon as the clearly better starter and the White Sox the much better hitting team.Kansas City obviously owns the bullpen, but the Royals are just 3-12 this year on the road when playing a team with a worse record. A complete turnaround from the last two years when Kansas City was excellent in that role.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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06-11-16 | Dodgers +114 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
959 Los Angeles at San Francisco Slight starter edge for the visitor to go with a huge bullpen edge for the Dodgers. Los Angeles also owns the lefty/righty matchup as San Francisco has had troubles vs left handed starters. Overall we are getting the better complete team in this contest at a plus price.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-10-16 | Tigers +128 v. Yankees | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
915 Detroit at New YorkWhile the Yankees have the pitching edge in this one the advantage is not as wide as you may think. The reason is how well the Tigers hit left-handed pitching. Out of all the lefty/righty matches on the board today Detroit has the biggest discrepancy on the card. That’s rare for a team in this price range, so the payoff is more than fair here. The Tigers will get to CC and if Pelfrey can put up an average game the back end of the Yankees rotation won’t be able to leave the bullpen.PLAY DETROIT |
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06-07-16 | Rays +165 v. Diamondbacks | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
977 Tampa Bay at ArizonaThe American League has traditionally dominated these interleague contests, so it’s very rare to get an AL squad in this price range. The starting pitcher is clearly an edge for the Diamondbacks, but every other category goes to the visitor. The lefty/righty advantage for the Rays is the tipping point. Great value on the underdog here.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-06-16 | Astros v. Rangers +109 | 5-6 | Win | 109 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
916 Houston at TexasThe Rangers have been dynamite the last couple years in this role according to our friends at SportsDataBase.com. Texas is 27-14 with an ROI of 36.5% at home off a home game in which their bullpen went at least one inning and did not allow a run. That’s 5-1 this year. Also the Rangers are 56-25 with an ROI of 28.0% at home after playing as a home dog when facing a team with a worse record. That’s a perfect 6-0 this year.There is no starting pitching edge while Houston is the slightly better offense. The Astros have the better bullpen but not enough to have them favored here on the road. PLAY TEXAS |
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06-04-16 | Mariners -107 v. Rangers | 4-10 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
927 Seattle at TexasSolid pitching edge for the Mariners as Nate Karns has really stepped up his game as of late. The Mariners also have a sizable advantage in the bullpen and defensively. They also hit better against lefties than the Rangers do against righties. The price is right with the better all-around team on Saturday.PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-03-16 | Rays v. Twins +110 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
978 Tampa Bay at MinnesotaJake Odorizzi has been a highly thought of pitcher in this organization for a while. While he is very talented his numbers at this level have been less than impressive. Yet he continues to be credited more on his potential than actual results.Ricky Nolasco has been a journeyman for most of his career, but this season he has been at the top of his game. When handicapping starters you have to take into consideration the current levels these two are pitching at, and Nolasco is having the better year. Our friends at SportsDataBase.com point out that the Twins are 25-17 when the bullpen pitches at least a full inning without allowing a run, which has been a solid handicapping angle for the league as a whole. Nice value tonight on the host.PLAY MINNESOTA |
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06-01-16 | Mariners v. Padres +164 | 6-14 | Win | 164 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
980 Seattle at San Diego As we’ve mentioned in the past King Felix has put up his normal outstanding numbers when looking at traditional stats. But when you dig deeper in his advanced numbers we find an overrated starter. His velocity is way down and his swinging strike rate has also plummeted. He’s being led by a BABIP that is way below his career numbers. So luck has been a major factor in his success. According to our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Mariners are only 72-73 as a favorite when playing a team with a worse record, an ROI loss of 16.4%. They are also 60-83 after winning by 5 or more runs for an ROI loss of 16.2%. We will back the Padres as this line is simply way too high.PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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05-31-16 | Rays -118 v. Royals | 5-10 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
919 Tampa Bay at Kansas CitySolid pitching edge here for Drew Smyly who is at a nice price after recent struggles. But he continues to miss bats and we see no reason to bet against him in this price range. Especially against a Kansas City team who is weak offensively when facing lefties. Tampa is a better offensive team on the road and Dillon Gee ranks slightly less than an average major league pitcher.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-30-16 | Dodgers +125 v. Cubs | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
955 Los Angeles at ChicagoGoing with the Dodgers here as a nice underdog as the pitching matchup favors the visitor here. Alex Wood struggled out of the gate but he has been outstanding as of late. Hammer has been very inconsistent, so we prefer the Dodger lefty.All other numbers are very close so we will take the Dodgers in this Memorial Day battle.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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05-27-16 | White Sox +132 v. Royals | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
921 Chicago at Kansas CityThis play is simply a go against the Royals as Kansas City has struggled offensively all year and is now without key offensive performers. The Royals are digging through the minors in search of help as both left field and third base are being handled by rookies. Danny Duffy has bounced between the bullpen and rotation throughout his time in the majors. While the Royals do have the starter edge here it’s not nearly pronounced enough to put them in this price range. Nice spot to get the first place White Sox as a solid underdog.PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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05-27-16 | Dodgers +104 v. Mets | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
905 Los Angeles at New YorkdeGrom hasn’t been the same pitcher as last year and the absolute demise of Harvey has kept that fact in the background. He’s still being overpriced based on the season he had a year ago. While the line has certainly dropped since the terrible opener we feel there is still value on the Dodgers here.Julio Urias has likely been the most talked about teenager in baseball circles since Brice Harper. He’s making his major league debut at the age of 19. The Dodgers could have waited on him and brought him up later for contract reasons, but there is simply nothing for him to prove in the minors. The Mets struggle against lefties and seeing an extremely talented one for the first time is a big advantage for the visitor. We may be seeing a future Hall of Famer here if the scouts are correct.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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05-26-16 | Rockies +160 v. Red Sox | 8-2 | Win | 160 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
965 Colorado at Boston Sizable starting pitcher edge for the Rockies as we simply cannot back Clay Buchholz in this price range. Two key Red Sox infield starters left the last game and likely will sit tonight. With Boston less than 100% offensively the edges for the Red Sox are minimal.PLAY COLORADO |
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05-25-16 | Reds v. Dodgers -164 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
912 Cincinnati at Los Angeles Dodgers have the edges across the board here from starting pitcher, relief pitching and offense. Major historical edges can be found at SportsDataBase.com. The Reds are 64-116 when playing a team with a better record. Cinco is 19-52 as a dog after the bullpen allowed multiple runs. The Dodgers on the other hand are 31-11 as a favorite after allowing 6 hits or less. With the LA bullpen in solid shape and the Reds relief being a fire sale we will back the Dodgers at home at a decent price.PLAY LA DODGERS |
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05-24-16 | Angels +102 v. Rangers | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
965 LA Angels at Texas We will back the Angels here as they own a decent edge with Chacin on the mound against Perez. Most of our numbers have this game pretty equal other than the starting pitcher, but the lefty/righty advantage also goes to the visitor. Because of injuries and suspensions the Rangers have had to make major changes around the entire field. Nice value here on the road team.PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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05-23-16 | Mets +137 v. Nationals | 7-1 | Win | 137 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
901 New York Mets at WashingtonNice price for the underdog Mets here in a key divisional showdown. SportsDataBase.com shows New York is 67-44 with an ROI of 10.9% coming off a game in which the bullpen didn’t allow a run in at least an inning of work. New York had two shutout innings yesterday against the Brewers as the bullpen is set up nicely for Colon.PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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05-21-16 | Dodgers -157 v. Padres | 2-3 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
913 LA Dodgers at San Diego Substantial starting pitching edge for Alex Wood. The Dodgers have the better bullpen and far better defense. The lefty/righty lineups also favor the visitor.As per our friends at SportsDataBase.com the Padres are only 7-25 as a dog after a home game in which they used 5 or more pitchers. 112 pitches were thrown by the San Diego bullpen last night.PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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05-20-16 | Braves v. Phillies -163 | 7-1 | Loss | -163 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
954 Atlanta at Philadelphia Edges all around for the Phillies here as Nola has a huge edge over Wisler on the mound. Philadelphia also owns big advantages in the bullpen and defensively. The offenses are roughly equal so no edge there. But according to SportsDataBase.com the Braves are just 39-65 off a road game in which the bullpen allowed multiple runs. Atlanta used five pitchers yesterday against the Pirates throwing 88 combined pitches. The Phillies on the other hand had the day off.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-18-16 | Rays +112 v. Blue Jays | 6-3 | Win | 112 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
971 Tampa Bay at TorontoSticking with the Rays here who own a huge starting pitcher and defensive edge in this contest. Road divisional dogs off a win have returned an ROI of 9.6% this year and 10.3% in over 2200 contests. This is a long winning system and we currently catch Odorizzi in an underdog role.PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-17-16 | Yankees +114 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
927 NY Yankees at Arizona The Diamondbacks pounded the Yankees yesterday 12-2 but a key point was that none of the New York elite pitchers played in the game. The listing of pitchers for the Yankees were Green, Goody, Mullee and Coke. All the top bullpen players are fresh and available tonight. Which is a big edge when playing in a good hitting environment like Arizona. As per SportsDataBase.com the Diamondbacks are 31-52 after scoring 6 or more runs. The starter matchup is virtually equal as Greinke has taken a step back as we all expected going from pitchers parks to a hitters park in Arizona. The bullpen obviously is a huge edge for New York and the lefty/righty edges for the hitters also belongs to the Yankees. PLAY NY YANKEES |
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05-16-16 | Rays +116 v. Blue Jays | 13-2 | Win | 116 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
957 Tampa Bay at Toronto Drew Smyly against JA Happ is a sizable advantage with the starters. Happy was great in Pittsburgh but going back to Toronto is a whole different situation, and Happ has looked more like the old American League journeyman than the Pirates successful starter. Toronto is the better hitting team but we don’t like the distraction on the bench clearing brawl from yesterday. Tampa has a big defensive edge here that puts the Rays over the top. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-15-16 | Pirates v. Cubs -145 | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
908 Pittsburgh at Chicago You are not going to get the Cubs at home with Lester on the hill in this type of price range very often. Chicago has been dominating in all aspects this year and the advanced stats say this squad is even better than its record. According to SportsDataBase.com the Cubs are 67-38 after allowing 6 or fewer hits, a perfect 10-0 this season! That means when the relievers are not overused and the starters do their job its hard to score on this team in future contests. The Pirates are a good team but this squad is overmatched here, even with Cole on the hill. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-14-16 | Reds v. Phillies -165 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
956 Cincinnati at Philadelphia |
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05-14-16 | Twins v. Indians -185 | 6-3 | Loss | -185 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
970 Minnesota at Cleveland We won't sell higher priced favorites to daily customers, but we do feel this play has value and we have already bet it ourselves. According to SportsDataBase.com the Indians are a perfect 12-0 off a home game in which it allowed 6 runs or more. 26-7 overall after permitting 6 runs or better. The Tribe has been very consistent in being able to bounce back from a poor pitching performance. The starting rotation is very competitive and talented so look for Kluber to once again pitch a quality start. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-13-16 | Reds v. Phillies -116 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
906 Cincinnati at PhiladelphiaRare chance to go against the Reds on the road at a decent price. According to SportsDataBase.com Cincinnati is 63-105 when playing a team with a better record. Also consider that the Reds are 19-45 as a dog after its bullpen allowed multiple runs. Philadelphia is a confident team with help on the way in the high minors. After being a laughing stock the past few years this team is starting to mature. Hellickson doesn’t dazzle so he is often underpriced. That’s the situation tonight as we back the upstart Phillies.PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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