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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-17-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Houston Rockets UNDER 191 | Top | 80-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Detroit at Houston
Pistons have been road underdogs six times this season with 5 of 6 staying under the posted total. In addition 5 of their 6 road games overall have stayed under this posted number of 191 1/2 as of this writing. Those scores were 170, 181, 169, 160 and 179. Detroit just doesn't have the offensive firepower to trade points, especially in the underdog role. Overall 12 of 17 games as underdogs have gone under. Houston has stayed under the posted total in all five of their home games, by margins of 7 1/2, 13 1/2, 8 1/2, 8 and 2 points in regulation. Off a 220 point shootout yesterday at Washington we look for the Houston defense to keep this number down on Tuesday. In six games in which the Rockets played unrested 5 of the 6 contests stayed under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-16-12 | Sacramento Kings v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 192 | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
Sacramento at Minnesota
The Kings have been road underdogs seven times this season with 6 of those 7 games staying under the posted total. The reason has been a major lack of scoring for the Kings who have reached 90 points in those games just twice. They are off a 60 point effort last time out against the Chicago Bulls. Now in the final game of a five game road-trip we can't see Sacramento all of a sudden breaking out offensively. Minnesota has been favored in four games this season with each game staying under the posted total by margins of 14, 31, 14 and 20 1/2 points. Overall 6 of the last 7 games for the T-Wolves have failed to reach the closing total. In Minnesota games in which both teams are rested, all five games have stayed under the total. PLAY UNDER |
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01-16-12 | Houston Rockets v. Washington Wizards UNDER 190.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
Houston at Washington
Traditionally Martin Luther King day games tend to be lower scoring. It could be especially true this season as clubs have rarely played an afternoon contest because of the condensed schedule. Houston has been favored three times this season with those contests going under the posted total by margins of 13 1/2, 41 1/2 and 8 points. Overall Houston games have stayed under the posted total in regulation seven straight times, twice going over in overtime which helps our cause here. Washington has been in the home dog role five times this season with 4 of the 5 occurrences staying under the total. The Wizards haven't scored more than 96 points in any game this season. The last time they played in an early contest they and Minnesota went under the total by 31 points. PLAY UNDER |
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01-14-12 | Toronto Raptors v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 177 | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
Toronto at Chicago
The Raptors haven't hit the century mark since opening night against the Cavaliers. They have stressed defense this year which has made them more competitive, but it's been a slow process turning those defensive stands into offensive points. Overall 4 of their 6 games as road underdogs have stayed under the posted total. When rested 4 of 6 games overall have stayed under the total with one game going over by just 1/2 point. Chicago has been a defensive machine at home holding the opposition to 64, 74, 68 and 64 points, going under the posted total by a combined margin of 108 points. We look for the Chicago defense to continue their dominance. PLAY UNDER |
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01-12-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 184 | 81-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Charlotte at Atlanta
These two just met up in Charlotte on the 6th and Atlanta came away with a 102-96 overtime win. That game stayed under the posted total at the end of regulation. The last four Charlotte games have gone under the total by a combined 80 points as it's become clear that in order for this team to have success they must do so from a defensive perspective. Atlanta played last night and when facing an unrested opponent Bobcats games have gone under in regulation all four occurrences. Atlanta has played a brutal schedule to open the season, already taking the court for the 12th time since December 27th. In games in which the Hawks have come in unrested they have gone under the posted total in 4 of 5 games in regulation. We will look for another low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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01-04-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. New York Knicks OVER 196.5 | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Charlotte at New York
While we missed the opening number we feel there is still plenty of value in this one. Charlotte is a bad team that plays poor defense. They have permitted 95 points or more to every team they have played. The last two games the Bobcats allowed 115 and 129 points. Playing their 3rd game in 4 days can't help their tired legs. New York has played five games but three of those opponents came out of camp with a definite defensive mindset. Whether coaching changes or bringing in defensive specialists, Golden State, the Lakers and Toronto all brought a defensive mindset to the season. Which is a main reason why three of the Knicks five games have stayed under the posted total. In the two games in which the opposition has decided to run with New York those games produced 210 and 206 points. We look for an up and down game tonight in the garden after New York produced just 85 points last time out against the Raptors. PLAY OVER |
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01-01-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants OVER 47 | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
Dallas at NY Giants
The last five meetings in this series totaled 71, 53, 76, 55 and 64 points. The Cowboys offense put up 34 and 31 points the prior two weeks before the early Romo injury last week against the Eagles. In divisional games this year the Cowboys are allowing 26.2 points per game. The Giants have scored 24 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The lone game they were held to less than that was against the Redskins in a game they moved the ball at will and just didn't find the endzone. In a win or go home game we expect both teams to keep their foot on the gas with no lead being safe, especially considering what happened the last time these two tangled. PLAY OVER |
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01-01-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 45.5 | 24-45 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Bucs have been held to less than 20 points in 8 of the last 9 games. The last 5 meetings in Atlanta have totaled 48, 37, 23, 38 and 17 points. The earlier meeting this season was a 16-13 Falcons victory. Atlanta is coming in off a 45-16 pasting at the hands of the Saints Monday night. The last time this team gave up 40+ was the season ending contest in 2007. Overall 5 of the last 6 Atlanta home games have stayed below the posted total. Look for both teams to feature the running games as they get out of dodge without any injuries, especially a Falcons squad with the playoffs on deck. PLAY UNDER |
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01-01-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Houston Texans UNDER 39.5 | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Tennessee at Houston
Tennessee needs to win this game and get help if they entertain any ideas about making the playoffs. Therefore look for the Titans to be very careful with the football as field position becomes a key. The last three contests between these two here in Houston resulted in point totals of 20, 37 and 25. In the Titans last nine games only one contest exceeded this total and that was 41 against Cincinnati. Amazingly in 5 of their last 6 games the final point total equalled 40 points exactly, the other game produced 39 points. Houston has totaled 35, 41, 39, 27 and 33 points their last five contests. They failed to reach 21 points in every one of those games. PLAY UNDER |
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12-22-11 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 40 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Houston at Indianapolis
Since the bye and the emergence of TJ Yates Houston games have totaled 41, 39, 27 and 33 points. In the last three contests the Texans have produced 0, 3 and 10 points by halftime. They have moved the ball pretty well but they continue to have problems finding the endzone. Defensively Houston had held seven straight opponents to under 20 points, until last week when they permitted 28 to the Panthers. With the losses last week of Baltimore and Pittsburgh Houston remains in contention for a first round playoff bye. Off a poor defensive performance we look for a nice bounce-back from this stellar defense. Indianapolis finally broke through with their first win of the season last week against Tennessee. That didn't look to be the case after scoring just 3 points in the first half. In fact, the Colts have been held to single first half points in 10 of 14 games this year. The last five games they have put up first half yardage totals of 106, 47, 89, 81 and 101 yards. So just because they put up 27 points last week against Tennessee don't think this team has solved their offensive problems. Overall 5 of the last 7 Colts games have resulted in point totals of 40 or less. Against this weak passing game of the Texans we look for a strong effort out of this Colt stop unit. PLAY UNDER |
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12-11-11 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals UNDER 38.5 | 19-21 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 52 m | Show | |
San Francisco at Arizona
Three of the last four meetings in this series have resulted in final point totals of 33 points or less including a 23-7 49ers victory just three weeks ago. San Francisco is having problems reaching the end zone as they haven't scored a first half touchdown in the last four games. Defensively the Niners haven't permitted a first half touchdown in six straight games. Arizona has held the last five opponents to 23 points or less as this defense is improving by leaps and bounds. They themselves haven't surpassed that number during the same five week span as the offense hasn't clicked regardless of the quarterback. PLAY UNDER |
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12-04-11 | Oakland Raiders v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 43 | 14-34 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
Oakland at Miami
Oakland hasn't surpassed 27 points in any of their last eight games as the early season outputs of 35 and 34 against Buffalo and the Jets are looking like an outlier. The Raider defense is improving weekly holding 5 of 7 opponents to 21 or less. No Miami game has surpassed this total since opening week against the Patriots. The Dolphin defense has held the last four opponents to a combined 40 points. PLAY UNDER |
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11-27-11 | Carolina Panthers v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 45 | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 73 h 0 m | Show |
Carolina at Indianapolis
The Colts have permitted 23 points or more to all but one opponent this season. While the offense has produced 3, 7, 10 and 7 points the past four games, the bye week is sure to help this struggling unit. Carolina has given up 20 points or more to all but one opponent this season, and that was the offensively inept Jaguars. Even Arizona and Washington have had offensive success against the Panthers. PLAY OVER |
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11-25-11 | Arkansas v. LSU OVER 52 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
129/130 Arkansas at LSU
This is a huge game in not only the SEC but on a national level. Since Bobby Petrino has been at Arkansas he has had great offensive success against some pretty good LSU defenses, putting up 31, 30 and 31 points. The Razorbacks are in terrific offensive form scoring 44, 49 and 44 points the last three weeks. Doing so against the stiff defensive talent of Mississippi State, Tennessee and South Carolina. In fact, Arkansas has put up 26 points or more in 18 of their last 19 games. The last five meetings in this series have produced point totals of 54, 63, 61, 98 and 57, all higher than the Vegas line in this match-up. LSU has put up 35 points or more in all but two games all season, against Alabama and Mississippi State. While Arkansas can put points up on just about anybody this Razorback defense has some problems. Both teams should be able to trade points here as Arkansas has the passing game and team speed to stretch the field against the Tigers. We look for a high scoring contest in a game where neither team will be looking to milk the clock. PLAY OVER |
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11-20-11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49 | 26-35 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 40 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay at Green Bay
The Buccaneers' offense has really struggled as of late scoring 18 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Against good defenses they are averaging just 11.5 points per contest. We saw a preview of this type of game earlier when the Pack faced the Rams. Green Bay took an early lead and took the air out of the ball in coasting to a victory. With a Thanksgiving Day game on deck, in a very short prep week, we look for the Packers to run a lot of clock here. In turn easily staying under the number. PLAY UNDER |
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11-13-11 | Washington Redskins v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 38 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 39 m | Show | |
Washington at Miami
This may be too obvious but we're looking for a low scoring contest here in Florida. The total has been adjusted but in our minds not nearly enough. The Redskins have gone under this posted total 5 of the last 6 games with point totals of 30, 23, 33, 27 and 34. All against teams with a better or equal offense to the Dolphins. This Washington team hasn't scored more than 14 first half points in any game, and the last four weeks they have managed 12 combined points by halftime. Defensively only one opponent all season has put up more than 23 against this Skins stop unit. Miami has scored 17 points or less in 6 of their 8 games this season. Overall 6 of the 8 games played have produced less than this current total. Defensively the Dolphins have held all but one opponent to 26 points or less. The last three weeks they have allowed 3, 20 and 18 points, the later in overtime. Both of these clubs have struggled tasting victory this season. In a winnable game for both clubs we expect a close to the vest, field position type game. PLAY UNDER |
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11-13-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 50 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
New Orleans at Atlanta
Saints in division have gone under 13 of 15 games with one of those contests going over in overtime. This game will go a long way in determining the divisional champ so we expect a conservative game plan. Saints on the road have scored more than 24 points just twice in last 7 games. Falcons defense hasn't permitted more than 28 points in six games, the last 3 opponents reach 7, 16 and 17 points. That includes the likes of the Lions and Panthers. PLAY UNDER |
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11-06-11 | Cleveland Browns v. Houston Texans UNDER 41 | 12-30 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 56 m | Show | |
Cleveland at Houston Under
The Browns have only surpassed 17 points once all season and that was against the winless Colts. They are now down to their third string running back and they just brought back a rusher who they cut before the season. Cleveland wins with defense and field position which will be a key here. The Browns have held 4 of 7 opponents to 20 points or less. Houston has faced three quality defenses this season scoring 17 against Pittsburgh, 14 against Baltimore and 24 against Jacksonville. Offensive injuries are another concern for the host. The betting public still thinks of the Texans as an offensive team but it's the defense which is playing better ball. Overall 5 of 8 opponents have been held to 14 points or less. Look for defense and ball control to be the key as this game stays under the key number of 41. PLAY UNDER |
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10-30-11 | Detroit Lions v. Denver Broncos UNDER 42.5 | 45-10 | Loss | -103 | 96 h 48 m | Show | |
221/222 Detroit at Denver
The Lions started the season on fire offensively but have came back down to earth the last month. Over the last three games Detroit has scored 16, 19 and 24 points with the final total points scored in those games being 39, 44 and 37. Keep in mind that in all three of those contests both the Lions and their opponents had their opening day starting quarterbacks. That won't be the case here. Because of the injury to Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill has been taking the reps with the first string offense. Even if Stafford does play he will be hampered and likely not have taken many if any snaps in practice. Starting running back Jahvid Best is also injured so the Detroit offense which has scored a combined 26 first half points the last five games will be severely hampered. Defensively the Lions have held all but one opponent to under 26 points, so we look for a conservative game plan from the Detroit coaching staff. Denver has made the quarterback change to Tebow and the Broncos were rewarded with a victory last week against the Dolphins. Denver played a field position game and we will likely see another conservative game plan here. Tebow is a running quarterback who throws short passes, that means lots of time off the clock without any big play possibilities. Defensively Denver has held 4 of 5 opponents to 23 points or less with only the potent Green Bay offense lighting this team up. It's very possible by game time that we will see two quarterbacks behind center that were listed as second and third string coming out of camp. If Hill is announced the starter this line tumbles, regardless we look for a low scoring defensive struggle out of both teams. PLAY UNDER |
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10-30-11 | Washington Redskins v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 46 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 34 m | Show | |
219/220 Washington at Buffalo
The Redskins are decimated at the skill positions. They are without their starting QB that opened the season, without their best receiver and starting running back, Washington is also without former All-Star TE Cooley. This was a team who hasn't surpassed 28 points all season even with all the injured players on the field. Despite what we saw last week in Carolina this is a strong defensive team. They have held all but one opponent to 21 points or less, including holding half their opponents under the 20 point mark. Without a healthy offense Washington will be conservative and let their defense win the game. Buffalo has put a lot of points on the board against flawed defenses but they have been held in check when facing solid stop units. They scored 20 against Cincinnati and 24 two weeks ago against a talented but thin Giants defense. Defensively Buffalo has faced some very good quarterbacks this season but that won't be the case here. The Bills will not have to trade points like they did against the likes of the Raiders, Eagles and Patriots. Therefore we look for Buffalo to be conservative offensively knowing Washington doesn't have the weapons to make this a shootout. PLAY UNDER |
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10-23-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 43 | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh at Arizona
The Steelers have faced a bevy of tough defenses in Baltimore, Seattle, Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville. Offensive numbers are skewed based on the strength of opposing defenses faced. Arizona defense has permitted 21 or better to all but one opponent, that being the weak scoring unit of Seattle. The Cards have moved the ball against weaker defensive opposition and the Steelers are very banged up on that side of the ball. We're getting a cheap number based on Pittsburgh's public perception. PLAY OVER |
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10-23-11 | Houston Texans v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 44.5 | 41-7 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 54 m | Show | |
Houston at Tennessee
Texan's defense still not getting enough credit and the offense has been limited based on injuries and poor production. Houston has been held to 14, 20 and 17 points the last three weeks and the Titan's defense is strong enough for that to continue. Tennessee offense has been held to 14 vs Jacksonville, 17 against Denver and 17 vs Pittsburgh. Houston has the stop unit to live up to the task. This is a big game for the divisional lead, we expect a conservative game plan from both teams. PLAY UNDER |
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10-09-11 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots OVER 48.5 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
New York at New England
All-Pro Center Mangold returns for the Jets here to not only protect Sanchez but also to reinvigorate the running game. With Mangold in the lineup this Jets team goes from pedestrian at best to a clear offensive force. Other than quarterback, a center of this magnitude is the most important player on the field offensively and his return has not been much of a factor in the pointspread either side or total. Overall 15 of the last 19 regular season games for the Jets have surpassed the posted total. Now they are going against a Patriot defense that has yielded point totals of 24, 21, 34 and 19 to start the season. New England has now scored 30 or more points in an amazing 12 straight games. The last four games against the Jets, New England has averaged 27.8 ppg. The Jets have now permitted 4 of their last 5 opponents to reach 24 points or more including 34 points each of the last two weeks. This is the third straight road game for the Jets, which hasn't happened in at least the last five seasons. That's a terrible spot to put a defense in that's struggling, especially against a quarterback like Brady. If Belichick wants to run up the score here he will, and we all know he does after losing to the Jets in the playoffs last season. PLAY OVER |
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10-09-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Buffalo Bills OVER 49.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 47 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Buffalo
In watching the Eagles this year it's clear that they have the weapons to be a dominant offensive force. Even with a leaky pass blocking scheme Michael Vick has proven himself with his arm as well as his legs. The running game is sound and nobody has better big play weapons in the passing game. The problem for Philadelphia has been a lack of killer instinct. They are averaging 30 points and a whopping 240 yards in the first half this season yet they don't keep the pedal to the metal in the second half. After blowing a huge lead last week against the 49ers we can't see that being a theme this time around. After facing the Giants, Falcons and 49er defenses the last few weeks we can see a big offensive output here from the Eagles. The last three weeks Philadelphia allowed point totals of 35, 29 and 24 points to less than top tier offensive squads. This Buffalo offense has proven they can put up points against non-elite defenses. The first three weeks the Bills scored 41, 38 and 34 points against the Chiefs, Raiders and Patriots. This Eagle stop unit is in the same class as those three squads and we see this as an offensive showcase from both teams. PLAY OVER |
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10-03-11 | Indianapolis Colts v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 40.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay
The Colts offense has struggled thus far but with a full week of reps we expect Curtis Painter to be able to move the ball against this questionable Tampa defense. The Bucs finished in the middle of the pack last year but have really struggled out of the gate, especially considering they have faced Minnesota and Atlanta who have shown offensive inconsistencies. Indy has faced the likes of Cleveland, Houston and Pittsburgh, all teams with solid stop units. This will likely be the worst defense they have faced thus far. Tampa Bay has proven that they can score on anyone as witnessed against three good defenses in Minnesota, Detroit and Atlanta. They should have little problem finding success against an Indy team that has permitted 34, 27 and 23 thus far. When the games have been in the balance in the first half the Colts are allowing 19.3 points and 216.7 yards in half a game. With this being a rare national television audience for Tampa we expect the Bucs to pull out the offensive playbook and try to impress the nation. Look for a high scoring contest. PLAY OVER |
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10-01-11 | Arizona v. USC UNDER 57 | 41-48 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
161/162 Arizona at USC
Big step down defensively for the Wildcats after facing Oklahoma State, Oregon and Stanford. USC has been held to 23 points or less in 3 of 4 games with 38 hosting Syracuse being the only offensive success. The Orangemen had to travel the entire length of the country for that payday. Series history shows point totals of 45, 38, 27, 33 and 23 points the last five meetings. USC lost the football four times last week so we expect Lane Kiffin to feature the run this week in order to lessen turnovers, but to also keep talented Arizona QB Foles on the sideline. Arizona was held to 14 at Oklahoma State and 10 hosting Stanford. They haven't scored more than 21 points in any of the last eight meetings with the Trojans. We look for history to repeat itself here as this game stays comfortably under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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09-18-11 | San Diego Chargers v. New England Patriots OVER 53 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
San Diego at New England
Traditionally it's a money making proposition to go under any game totaled at 50 or higher. In our opinion that's no longer the case. The NFL has turned into a passing league and when two excellent signal callers do battle points will be aplenty. There was one such match-up last week and Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers combined for 76 points. This week we expect to see shootouts in this game as well as Philadelphia at Atlanta. These teams know that the opposing squad has a supremely talented quarterback that can put points on the board in a hurry. Therefore they can never take the petal off the metal. No lead is safe in the new NFL and we expect the old under 50 axiom to be a thing of the past. San Diego ranked 1st in the league in total defense last year yet they went over the posted total in 5 of their 8 road games. The last 12 times they were installed as road dogs the games averaged 50.7 points with a median of 51 points scored. Keep in mind that the vast majority of those teams wanted to run the football and keep Philip Rivers on the sidelines. That obviously won't be the case this week. Bill Belichick knows his defense is the weakness of his squad. After falling to 25th in the league last year in total defense the team was shredded in the opener by Chad Henne. Henne's high in passing yards last year was only 363. The Patriots surpassed the posted total in 7 of 8 regular season home games last season. They are 11-5 over the total as a single digit home favorite. That means this team continues to try to score in competitive match-ups. New England home games last year averaged 53.6 ppg and keep in mind they played the likes of Cincinnati, Buffalo, Baltimore, Minnesota and Miami. In games against teams with top tier quarterbacks we saw point totals of 59 against Indianapolis and 58 against Green Bay. Welcome to your new NFL where no lead is safe and you can't touch the quarterback. Who needs the NBA when the NFL offenses have all the advantages to put up huge numbers. PLAY OVER |
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09-11-11 | Buffalo Bills v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 40 | 41-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
459/460 Buffalo at Kansas City Under
This under play is mostly predicated on the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs have two major injuries which will highly impact their offense in this game. Starting TE Tony Moeaki is likely out for the season after tearing the ACL in his left knee this week. Just as, if not more important is a rib injury to starting QB Matt Cassel. While he will start he obviously will be very limited. Last year he was the third most successful runner for the Chiefs and with bad ribs he won't be a running force. More importantly he won't be able to throw the ball downfield like he normally would. That leaves the Chiefs with a running game and short passing game, with the best outlet valve out of the lineup. In addition, Jamaal Charles left the Chief's final preseason game in the second quarter because of an injury. He will play but one bad hit and he could be lost. With lots of running from both teams and very few downfield passes we expect this to be a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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06-22-11 | Seattle Mariners v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Seattle at Washington
The Mariners are just 6-12 this season vs lefty starters and they should be in for a long day against John Lannan. He has a sparkling 1.84 ERA at home this year and overall he has allowed four earned runs combined in his last six starts. Seattle erupted for five runs last night but that's been a rarity as of late as the offense continues to struggle. Erik Bedard has a strong 2.52 ERA on the road this season and he has now gone a full ten starts without allowing more than three earned runs. Overall 4 of the last 6 meetings in this series have stayed under the posted total, and after an 11 run output yesterday we expect the pitchers to have the advantage tonight. PLAY UNDER |
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06-12-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 187.5 | Top | 105-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Dallas at Miami
Regardless of the outcome this has been one hell of a series. These teams match up so closely that no lead is safe. With Miami having their backs to the wall and Dallas proclaiming that they are treating this game as if it's a Game 7, we have to expect a very low scoring defensive battle. Overall 4 of the first 5 games in this series have stayed under the posted total, and traditionally defense continues to get stronger as a series evolves. The free throw shooting has been outstanding with both teams reaching at least 70% shooting in every game. That means that unless the refs all of a sudden start calling more fouls any extra points will not be coming from the foul line. Up until last game neither team ever sniffed 50% shooting from the field and both teams talked about their poor defensive performances after the previous game. We expect points to be hard to come by as this game stays well below the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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05-18-11 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 181.5 | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 36 h 0 m | Show |
3* Miami at Chicago
The talking heads have been saying that the Heat need to play at a faster pace in game two to have success, but that's the same thing they have said about Miami all year. The truth of the matter is that Miami is best at the defensive end of the court and we expect the Heat to bounce back after a poor defensive performance. It's not easy to get transition baskets when you constantly are out rebounded, therefore it would be foolish for Miami to pick up the pace. Chicago knows that they are the best defensive team in the league and we can't see them changing their style. Look for a low scoring game with very physical play. PLAY UNDER |
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05-04-11 | Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 186.5 | 93-81 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Dallas at Los Angeles
These two teams have matched up very well this year with each squad winning two games including a victory on the opponent's home court. The line gives us a slight advantage to the visitor but the situation favors the Lakers. Therefore we have no play on the side. Where we do see an advantage is in the total. All four games surpassed the current line of 186 1/2 and we expect this game to also finish above the posted total. Other than one game this year Dallas has shot well against the Lakers and we can't see Los Angeles coming up with any new wrinkles. The Lakers will get the calls by having the biggest named player on his home court with Los Angeles trailing in the series. The Lakers easily outshot the Mavs from the line in the first four games and we expect Bryant to be real aggressive driving to the lane. Only 31 free throws were attempted in game one and we expect that number to increase here. Both teams were coming off superior defensive opponents in the previous round and the line hasn't been adjusted for the more offensively proficient opponents here. Look for this game to reach the 190's. PLAY OVER |
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05-01-11 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 182 | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Boston at Miami
This is a much anticipated series with big name players taking center stage. While most of the household names are known for their offensive production we expect this series to be won on the defensive side of the court. Boston has prided themselves on their defense and now lane clogger Shaq O'Neill is expected to see some action. That can only slow down the Boston offense and clog the middle defensively. Miami has held seven straight opponents to less than the century mark as they have stepped up defensive intensity in the playoffs. Three of the four regular season meetings have gone under the posted total, and with fresh legs from Boston after sweeping the Knicks we see this opening game being played at a slow pace. PLAY UNDER |
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04-19-11 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 183.5 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
Atlanta at Orlando
The Magic pride themselves on their defense and Dwight Howard is always a leading vote getter for the defensive MVP Award. Atlanta lit up the Magic for 103 points on 51.4% shooting from the field in game one. In the four previous meetings this season the Hawks scored 85, 91, 80 and 85 points. In the previous seven games from the 2009-2010 season Atlanta produced 84, 75, 98, 71, 86, 86 and 81 points. So you can see that the Hawks far exceeded their average offensive output in the opening game victory. Compared to the previous meetings from this season Orlando also shot far better than projected. The Magic were successful on 45.3% of their field goals compared to 41.6%, 35.2%, 37.8% and 43.0% in the other four meetings this season. The total in the opening game was 181 and as we write this the line has gone up 2 1/2 points from that number for game two. We can't see the entire pace of the series changing after just one high scoring game. We expect both teams to perform much better defensively here. PLAY UNDER |
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02-16-11 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 203 | 99-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
LA Lakers at Cleveland
The Lakers are in a major offensive funk right now scoring 93 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. But the great news for Los Angeles is that they are playing a terrible defensive team tonight, with absolutely no inside presence to compete against the huge front court of LA. Therefore the Lakers can pound the ball inside all night for easy baskets with only JJ Hickson putting up any type of defensive resistance. On the other bench the Cleveland coaching staff knows full well that they need to run and gun in order to put up any type of offensive production against this tall Laker squad. And now that Mo Williams has returned to the lineup they have that ability. Coach Scott well remembers the last time his squad took on his former team, the Lakers limited Cleveland to just 57 points in an embarrassing 55 point defeat. The Lakers need to correct their offensive problems and we don't expect a superior defensive effort against the worst team in the league, especially considering how they dominated Cleveland in their last game. This is the last game in a disappointing seven game East Coast road trip. Look for this game to turn into a playground type atmosphere as both teams look to pick up the pace. PLAY OVER |
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02-13-11 | Washington Wizards v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 207 | Top | 115-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Washington at Cleveland
The Wizards haven't won a road game all season while the Cavaliers just broke a record tying losing streak. What do these two teams have in common? They are young and play little defense. The Wizards allow over 103 points a game while Cleveland permits more than 105 per contest. In 8 of the last 9 road games for Washington they have permitted at least 100 points. This is a team that doesn't help defensively and that's especially true away from home. The Cavaliers have very little presence inside with a young JJ Hickson being the only real defensive threat and he suffers from foul trouble on many occassions. Guards are able to penetrate to the lane on the Cavs with little physical reaction. Baron Davis did as he pleased on Friday and it left the rest of the Clipper team wide open for uncontested jumpers. Cleveland has permitted 11 straight opponents to reach 99 points or more with 7 of those 11 reaching 110 points or better. Mo Williams returned to action on Friday and he is the only Cleveland player that has the ability to drive to the basket and pull up for a long range three. His ability to stretch the defense will allow the other Cleveland players to have open shots. But his return comes at a price as he's not a good defender and the young point guards of the league can have a big game at his expense. Look for a fast paced game with plenty of open shots as this game sails over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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02-12-11 | San Diego St v. UNLV UNDER 129 | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
635/636 San Diego St at UNLV
The Aztecs have won 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series as they are one of the few teams on the schedule of UNLV that matches them in athleticism. UNLV isn't a good shooting team anyway which makes this match-up a bad one for the Rebels. UNLV needs to get in the open court to get clean looks at the basket and the Aztecs are so long and lean that simply doesn't happen. The last two meetings saw the Rebels fail to reach 50 points as they shot 36.1% and 32.7% from the floor. San Diego State has shown some chinks in the armor as of late but that has come against teams with a solid perimeter game like BYU. UNLV simply doesn't have that ability to shoot well from the outside. Therefore San Diego State can use their huge edge in rebounding to take advantage of a smaller Rebel squad. The last four meetings have seen a 9 rebound or more advantage for the Aztecs which is huge in a projected low scoring game. We look for San Diego State to once again stuff a questionable UNLV offense in another low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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02-06-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Green Bay Packers OVER 44.5 | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 100 h 1 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh & Green Bay at Dallas
The line on this game opened around 46 and has been bet down to 44 or 44 1/2 across the board. With 45 being a key betting number for totals the edge is currently on playing this game over the posted total. Much of the talk about this game has centered around the superior defensive units, and that talk is well deserved. But both teams have excellent signal callers who rarely make mistakes. These are still two quality offenses with plenty of weapons. And keep in mind that this game is being played indoors in a temperature controlled environment, far different from what both of these teams face in their home games. This game also features a slightly different thought process, as in all the previous games both teams had to worry about future games. We saw it in the league championships as both teams had solid leads in the second halves only to take the air out of the football, which led to games finishing much closer than the should. Coaches have a tendency to play conservative when having a lead as they don't want to be second guessed by the media. It's much easier to run the ball and take time off the clock than it is to continue your aggressive attack first mode. But this is the final game of the season and there is no holding back. If a team is finding success in one facet of the game they will continue to exploit that edge knowing there is no tomorrow. Because both teams pulled back last game we expect both coaches to keep the pedal to the metal this entire game. Nobody wants to be known as the team who let the opponent back into the contest in the Super Bowl. This game is being played in the new Cowboy Stadium and for what it's worth all games played here this year went over the posted total. Obviously both of these defenses are far superior to that of the home town Cowboys, but the line also reflects that fact. While many will look at this game as a matchup of two superior defenses, we prefer to put our trust in two of the best quarterbacks in the league. PLAY OVER Team Props Packers 1st downs over 18 1/2 Steelers 1st Downs over 18 Over 8 touchdowns and field goals Over 2 1/2 sacks for Green Bay More points scored in the second half and overtime than the first half No converted 4th downs Packers punt 1st Packers receive opening kickoff |
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