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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-16-13 | UNLV v. San Diego St OVER 134 | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
801 UNLV at San Diego State
These two teams have really had some battles over the years with many games being decided in the closing minutes. But the makeup of the two teams is a bit different this year with offensive edges that can be exploited. UNLV for the first time in years has talented big men. They have the ability to take advantage of a smaller and less potent rebounding team in San Diego State. Also the Rebels have really struggled against the zone but that's not the style of play coach Fisher and his Aztecs prefer. San Diego State likes the playground style of basketball which fits right in with the way the Rebels want to play. Get out and run instead of half court sets. San Diego State has a major advantage in its backcourt as the Aztecs are extremely talented in that regard and its small forward could be the best player on the court. It will be tough for the Rebels questionable guards to keep up with San Diego State. While past games have tended to be low scoring these teams are far different from the past. Look for a fast paced game with both teams getting to the free throw line. This line is based on history and we take advantage. PLAY OVER |
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01-01-13 | Wisconsin v. Stanford UNDER 47 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
256 Wisconsin vs Stanford at Pasadena
The Badgers really struggled offensively when stepping up in class. Scoring just 7 vs Oregon State, 16 vs Utah State, 10 in regulation against Michigan State, 14 in regulation against Ohio State and 21 in regulation vs Penn State. This Stanford defense is as good or superior to any of those stop units. Defensively the Badgers are extremely sound holding the likes of Oregon State to 10, Utah State to 14 and Ohio State to 14 in regulation. Stanford has held all but one opponent to 23 points or less this season. They won't be outmatched against this Wisconsin offense. The problem for the Cardinal has been an inconsistent scoring unit that feasted on weak opposition. The PAC 12 isn't known for quality stop units and yet Stanford struggled many times to move the football this season. We expect this to be a field position game with points being very hard to come by. PLAY UNDER |
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01-01-13 | Northwestern v. Mississippi State OVER 53 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
249 Northwestern vs Mississippi State in Jacksonville
Both teams played in defensive first conferences yet the offenses for each of these squads is talented. Northwestern put up 21 points or better against every opponent they faced including quality defenses like Vanderbilt, Penn State and Michigan State. Mississippi State allowed 24 points to Troy, 31 to Tennessee and 37 or better to the three best teams they faced in Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. The Bulldogs were stymied offensively against those three elite teams but when stepping down in class they excelled, putting up 27 or more on every other opponent. The last four times out when not facing the Big Three they managed 24 against Mississippi, 45 against Arkansas, 45 vs Middle Tennessee State and 41 against Tennessee. The weather won't be a factor and since both teams went bowling the past two years the players shouldn't come out sluggish. This total is based on games against elite defenses and these two squads don't possess that type of defensive talent. PLAY OVER |
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12-23-12 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 41.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
108 Buffalo at Miami
Buffalo should be fired up defensively after allowing a whopping 50 points last week in Toronto. The defense had permitted just 15, 18, 20 and 14 points the previous four games. During that time they also allowed just 285, 236, 312 and 184 total yards. Buffalo offensively has been held to 19 points or less in 5 of 7 games and the last time these two met just 33 points were scored. In fact, 4 of the last 5 games in this series have stayed under the posted total. Miami has now gone seven straight games of scoring 24 points or less, four times being held to 16 or fewer. Defensively Miami has held six straight opponents to 321 total yards or less. Overall 6 of the last 7 home games for Miami have seen total points scored of 40 or less. PLAY UNDER |
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12-22-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets UNDER 197.5 | 96-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
508 Memphis at Houston
The Memphis Grizzlies are playing slow paced tough defensive basketball games. In 12 of the last 13 contests they have stayed under the posted total with the lone over coming by just 2 1/2 points. After playing last night the last thing Memphis wants to do is run with the fastest paced team in the league. When facing the top three paced teams in the NBA this year Memphis has stayed under the posted total all three times by margins of 16, 22 1/2 and 15 1/2 points. In four unrested games the Grizzlies stayed under the posted number each time. PLAY UNDER |
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12-20-12 | BYU v. San Diego State UNDER 48 | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
206 BYU & San Diego State
Cougar games have been easy to handicap by looking at the quality of opposition faced. When playing teams with formidable defenses this BYU offense struggles. But in turn the Cougar defense steps up. Case in point are the contests against Boise State a 7-6 loss, Utah State a 6-3 win, Notre Dame a 17-14 loss and San Jose State a 20-14 defeat. We feel this contest against San Diego State will be much the same. A major defensive struggle for both teams. San Diego State didn't face many quality stop units in the Mountain West Conference, with only Boise State being considered stout defensively. That contest ended with a 21-19 Aztecs victory. In the opener against Washington only 33 points were scored. The one outlier in the group was a 38-34 home loss to San Jose State in a contest where neither team was able to slow down the passing attacks. The Aztecs held 5 of 7 teams to under 20 points down the stretch and they have enough to make the Cougars really work for points here. Rocky Long and Bronco Mendenhall are both defensive minded coaches who faced off against each other many times over the years. PLAY UNDER |
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12-16-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 39 | 36-22 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
310 Minnesota at St Louis
Last week the Vikings managed just 21 points against the Bears with two of those three touchdowns provided by the defense. The prior two weeks Minnesota put up 14 at Green Bay and 10 at Chicago. In four of the last seven games the Vikings have failed to reach 290 total yards. Peterson is having an incredible year but the Rams hold the opposition to just 4.0 yards per rush. Only seven teams fare better defending the run. Ponder has put up yards per pass attempt numbers of 4.5, 4.8 and 3.3 the last three games. Only twice all season has he surpassed the league average and that was a full nine games ago. When Ponder fails to reach 6.0 yppa the under has occurred in 6 of 7 games. St Louis has scored 24 points or less in all but two games all season. In the last 11 games St Louis has been held to 20 or less nine times. Defensively this team is getting better week in and week out. The last three games the Rams have held opponents to 12, 13 and 17 points including one contest that went to overtime. The Rams have produced less than 300 yards of offense in 3 of 4 games, while the defense has gone four straight contests allowing 375 yards or less. When St Louis holds opposing signal callers to 6.0 yppa or less the games have gone under in 6 of 7 contests. PLAY UNDER |
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12-14-12 | Boston Celtics v. Houston Rockets UNDER 206 | Top | 89-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH
812 Boston at Houston Boston is 3-8 to the Under in regulation when the total is set at 190 or higher. This is the first time all season a total has been set at over 200. When playing against teams with high pace ratings Boston has gone Under against Dallas by 5, Under against San Antonio by 19 and Under against Milwaukee by 9 1/2, 6 and 17. Houston plays the fastest pace in the NBA and coach Rivers knows he can't compete against Houston playing the Rockets fast paced game. Off a double overtime win over Dallas on Wednesday and with another game tomorrow at San Antonio we look for the Celtics to severely slow the pace. PLAY UNDER |
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12-13-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45.5 | 34-13 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
302 Cincinnati at Philadelphia
These individual Thursday games give an advantage to the defenses. We used the under last Thursday in the Denver/Oakland game and we return with that same reasoning tonight. Because of the quick turnaround time teams can't add anything new to the playbook, which helps the defensive game plans. Cincinnati has played terrific defense as of late allowing 20, 13, 10, 6 and 13 points the last five games. The Bengals held each opponent to 318 total yards or less. Offensively they had breakout games against Kansas City and Oakland, but other than those two poor teams they have consistently failed to reach 360 yards against anyone. Nick Foles has now gone three straight games without throwing an interception. That means he isn't throwing into traffic and is going with what the defenses give him. It also means there is less of a chance for a pick six which is always a concern when you are looking for a low scoring game. This Eagles defense hasn't performed well at all this year, but considering that Philadelphia has a -19 turnover margin on the season you can't put all the blame on the stop unit. So far this season 9 of 12 individual Thursday games have stayed under the posted total. One that went over did so after just 16 points were scored with 13 minutes remaining in the game. The trend makes sense and it fits this game well. We will look for another low scoring affair here as Philadelphia shows some heart after that big emotional victory from Sunday. PLAY UNDER |
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12-09-12 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47.5 | 23-21 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 4 m | Show | |
119 Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Nick Foles hasn't thrown an interception in either of the last two games as he is getting more and more comfortable under center for the Eagles. Despite losing big name players at the skill positions the Eagles offense has performed just as well as of late producing 22 points or better in 3 of the last 4 contests. It's the Eagle defense that has been pounded allowing 28 points or more in six straight games. Philadelphia has really been hurt in the passing game allowing 10.9, 10.3 and 12.8 yards per passing attempts the past three weeks. Tampa Bay has scored 21 points or better now in nine straight games. This has become one of the more potent offenses in the NFL. The problem for the Bucs has been a defense that has permitted 21 points or more in five straight contests, including the questionable offenses of Oakland and San Diego. With neither team concerned with the playoffs and both squads wearing down defensively we can see a late season shootout here. The last five home games for the Buccaneers averaged 52.4 points per game, we can see another 50 point effort here. PLAY OVER |
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12-07-12 | Washington Wizards v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 192.5 | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
806 Washington at Atlanta
These two clubs just played on the 21st and Atlanta won 101-100 in overtime. The total on that game was set at 185 1/2 and the game was tied at 90 at the end of regulation. Since that game the two teams have combined to go over the total 7 of 13 games. Washington road games average 188.3 ppg while Atlanta home games average 193.6, both below the league average of just about 195 ppg. So why is this line opening much higher than the earlier matchup? We feel a main reason is the recent opponents for the Hawks. Denver, Cleveland, Charlotte twice and the LA Clippers all play at a higher pace than these Wizards. Washington ranks 23rd in the league in pace while each of the other opponents are all in the Top 17. Atlanta has played twice this season in the first game of a back to back situation, in those two games the final score was a combined 29 1/2 points below the posted total. With the Hawks in Memphis tomorrow we can see Atlanta slowing the pace here, and you can bet after being forced to overtime last game against the Wizards defense will be emphasized. PLAY UNDER |
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12-06-12 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
102 Denver at Oakland
Teams that play each other twice in a season know each other through and through. They know what plays they will call and they know what they will run out of every formation. When these teams play on a short week less if any new plays can be put into the game plan. That's exactly why just once all season has an individual Thursday Night Football game gone Over the Total when two divisional rivals go head to head. In that lone contest San Diego and Kansas City totaled 16 combined points heading into the fourth quarter, with a fumble recovery in the end zone, a 59 yard pick six and a garbage touchdown put the game Over the posted total by 3 points. That's the lone divisional game to surpass the total on these stand alone Thursday contests. Not only are these games going Under, but they are doing so by wide margins. Arizona at St Louis -20 points to go under by 17 1/2 Chicago at Green Bay -33 points to go Under by 17 1/2 Cleveland at Baltimore -39 points to go Under by 4 1/2 Indianapolis at Jacksonville -37 points to go Under by 6 1/2 Miami at Buffalo - 33 points to go Under by 13 points New Orleans at Atlanta - 36 points to go Under by 18 1/2 points Seattle at San Francisco -19 points to go Under by 18 1/2 points PLAY UNDER |
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12-02-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. NY Jets OVER 36 | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
Arizona at NY Jets
The Arizona defense has wilted under the pressure of this questionable Cardinal offense. Allowing 31, 23, 31, 24 and 21 points the past five games. The offense did show some signs of life last week putting up a season high 375 yards against the Rams. The Jets have dropped 4 of the last 5 games and they are relegated to sitting on the sidelines this postseason. While not technically eliminated this team knows their postseason run has ended. Defensively the Jets have permitted 49, 28, 30 and 29 points in 4 of their last 5 games, with only St Louis not reaching 28 points against this club. With both teams just playing out the string and with both defenses struggling we can easily go over the total in a game that's likely to see a defensive score along the way. PLAY OVER |
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12-01-12 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat OVER 193 | 89-102 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Brooklyn at Miami
The last time these two met the Heat pounded the Nets 103-73 when Brooklyn was just getting their footing early in the season. It was by far the worst offensive output for the Nets on the year. Now Brooklyn has scored 90 or better in 8 of 9 games, only once playing unrested. Miami home games are averaging 214.7 points per game. The Heat really like to run at home when facing an unrested opponent. Brooklyn played last night in Orlando. At home against unrested foes Miami games have surpassed the posted total by 36, 20, 20 1/2 and 3 points. The Heat doesn't play again until Tuesday against Washington, so they don't need to worry about fatigue in this contest. PLAY OVER |
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12-01-12 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 51 | 32-28 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 21 m | Show | |
334 Alabama vs Georgia
Conference championship games are played closer to the vest than regular season games because the outcome is so important. Neither team wants to risk a turnover by making a key mistake. It also helps in this case because we really like these two stop units. Alabama hasn't permitted more than 17 points to all but one opponent this season. That lone team to score more was Texas A&M at 29 points in a game the Crimson Tide lost the turnover battle by three. Alabama is coming in off back to back shutouts and they have blanked 4 of 12 teams it faced this season. Alabama only faced one quality defense all season, LSU, and that game totaled 38 points. The last five games for the Bulldogs it held the opposition to 10, 14, 0, 10 and 9 points. This stop unit has gotten better as the season has gone along, very similar to how Georgia played down the stretch a year ago. In two games against quality defenses Georgia games totaled 42 vs South Carolina and 26 against Florida. We look for another grind it out type of game here. PLAY UNDER |
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11-28-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic UNDER 197.5 | 110-89 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
704 San Antonio at Orlando
The Spurs have won the first four games of this extended road trip including blowing out Washington on Monday unrested. The team had 13 players on the court for at least seven minutes which just proves how deep and talented this squad is. But San Antonio has a huge statement game tomorrow in Miami as they end the trip with its most difficult game. Orlando has played a slower pace at home against quality opposition. The coaching staff has been very easy to read this season as they let the team run at home when facing the likes of Phoenix, Detroit and Cleveland. But when stepping up in class here and when playing on the road Orlando relies on defense and a slower pace. Orlando has had the last two days off in order to put in a game plan, and you know for a fact that strategy wasn't to get out and run with the Spurs. Against superior opposition Denver, Brooklyn and New York, the Magic played conservatively, we expect the same tonight. PLAY UNDER |
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11-23-12 | New York Knicks v. Houston Rockets OVER 196.5 | 103-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
New York at Houston
When the Rockets have played a team ranked in the top 10 in the league in offensive efficiency the games have been very high scoring, and the Knicks lead the league in that category. The Miami game surpassed the total by 28 1/2 points, the Lakers game by 21 1/2 points, and Portland by 24. The only game against a high efficiency team that did not go over was against Memphis. We expect the pace to be especially high for the Rockets since the ball will be in the hands of Jeremy Lin who has special motivation after the Knicks let him go in the offseason, as they refused to match the Rockets contract offer. New York has scored in bunches against any team willing to run with them, and with all the new additions to this Rockets team they are having a hard time coming together defensively. Let's look for an offensive explosion from both teams as this one sails over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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11-23-12 | Syracuse v. Temple OVER 56.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 18 m | Show |
119 Syracuse at Temple
The Orangemen are already bowl eligible so this game doesn't have any real significance. Over the last month they beat South Florida and Missouri in last second comebacks and knocked Louisville from the unbeaten ranks. This game will be played without any pressure. The last five games they have put up 31, 45, 24, 37 and 40 points as the offense is really clicking. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Syracuse. Temple has permitted 9.8, 11.6, 10.2 and 11.5 yppa the last four games, which is not a good sign against this aggressive Syracuse passing game. Over the last five contests the Owls have given up 32, 34, 45, 47 and 35 points. With this being the last game of the season for Temple we expect a wide open no holds barred offensive game. Similar to last week when the Owls let it all hang out against Army, we expect plenty of points to be scored. PLAY OVER |
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11-20-12 | New York Knicks v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 189 | 102-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
704 New York at New Orleans
The Knicks have been winning this year by slowing pace and playing defense, two things not seen very often in the Big Apple. The Knicks are 28th out of the 30 NBA teams in pace and they have held 5 of 8 opponents to less than 90 points. Last time out they held a similar struggling offensive team to the Hornets, the Pacers, to only 76 points. New Orleans has surpassed the posted total by 38 1/2, 18 1/2, 12 and 25 points the last four games. The only victory in that span was against the Charlotte Bobcats. New Orleans doesn't have an offense that can get away with playing up and down basketball, as they still have questionable scoring talent. While the Knicks prefer a slower paced game the last four Hornets opponents prefer getting out and running. That's why those clubs rank 1st, 10th, 4th and 7th in the league in pace. New Orleans won't have to run the court here which plays to their advantage. While we would love to grab a full 7 in this contest with the host, the number isn't available at this writing. Instead we will use the same logic to tackle the total which is actually set higher than 3 of those last 4 games against running clubs. PLAY UNDER |
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11-19-12 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 34.5 | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Chicago at San Francisco
Now that the line has dropped with the news of Smith being out for the 49ers, we go from being on the sidelines to being in action tonight. Smith isn't worth the 3 point adjustment in the line but we also don't want to lay more than a field goal. The way we will attack this game is with the total which has dropped into the 34 1/2 range. Chicago is being penalized offensively with Cutler out of the lineup. But that isn't much of an offensive drop off. The last four games with Cutler the Bears produced 249, 358, 210 and 296 total yards. You won't get any worse tonight with Campbell. Without Smith the 49ers offense becomes more dynamic as the backup can beat you through the air or with his scrambling ability. Which comes in handy against a very aggressive Chicago defense. The last four weeks San Francisco put up 341, 317, 313 and 314 total yards. Similar to the Bears situation we ask how much of an offensive drop will there be? The weather is expected to be in the mid 50's with 20% chance of rain and 7 mph winds. That won't have any affect on the game. With the total lowered because of the quarterbacks we will ride the over as we expect at least one mistake turning into a touchdown. PLAY OVER |
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11-18-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots OVER 54 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 30 h 14 m | Show | |
Indianapolis at New England
The last three weeks Indy has passed for 8.5, 8.7 and 7.5 yards per pass attempt as the offense is really starting to click with Luck behind center. The defense has been very impressive as of late but they haven't faced any quality offenses. New England has permitted 400 yards or better in 5 of 9 games, those not reaching 400 yards were Tennessee, Arizona, Seattle and St Louis, all questionable offenses. New England has put up 29 points or more in all but two games this season, against defensive squads Arizona and Seattle. The weather is expected to be very good and the offenses are by far the most talented units on the field. PLAY OVER |
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11-11-12 | Houston Texans v. Chicago Bears UNDER 41 | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show | |
238 Houston at Chicago
The Texans haven't played on the road in five weeks. In their only other game against the NFC they were blown out at home against Green Bay. Defensively the Texans have held all but two opponents to 325 yards or less. We have serious concerns about Matt Schaub and his ability to avoid this Chicago pressure. Against Green Bay earlier this year he made bad decisions under duress. Chicago has had a +4 turnover margin in 4 of 8 games this year as this is becoming one of the most dominating defenses in recent memory. Nobody has scored more than 23 points against the Bears. Chicago has produced over 360 offensive yards just twice all season. Weather is expected to be a factor here Sunday night and we know neither team wants to turn the ball over, especially Houston. With the Texans playing it close to the vest and Chicago not having big play ability offensively, this becomes a field position game. PLAY UNDER |
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11-06-12 | Ball State v. Toledo OVER 68.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
101 Ball State at Toledo
Ball State has played on the road five times this season. Those final point totals were 79, 80, 88, 71 and 52 points. They combined to surpass the posted total by 52 points with the lone under coming last time out at Army. The last three meetings in this series resulted in final points of 73, 55 and 67. The Cardinals passing attack has improved as the season has gone along but they continue to get burned when in pass coverage. Toledo's home schedule has been stacked with teams with better defenses than offenses including Bowling Green and Cincinnati. This is a better offensive team than they have shown and now stepping down in class they can really prosper against this Ball State stop unit. Toledo hasn't faced a good offensive team since the opener at Arizona and the Wildcats are much better offensively now than they were at that point of the season. Last year the Rockets ran all over the Cardinals averaging 4.8 yards per carry, we expect more of the same here. We made this line Toledo -7 so there is no advantage on the side, but with the defensive minded opposition Toledo has faced this season we could see a coming out party offensively for the Rockets. PLAY OVER |
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11-04-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 43.5 | 17-31 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
Arizona at Green Bay
Cards haven't produced more than 16 points in four straight games, averaging just 9 ppg and one of those contests actually went into overtime. Defensively they are still stout holding all but two opponents to 317 yards or less on the season. Green Bay has a lot of injuries and they have a bye on deck. This is one of those games where they just look to get the win and get out of the game healthy. The offense has surpassed 356 yards just twice all season and the defense has improved each of the last four weeks. PLAY UNDER |
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11-03-12 | Sacramento Kings v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 191 | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
504 Sacramento at Indiana
Kings coaching staff has put out the word, play defense or sit the bench. The pace has slowed and the team does look like a better stop unit early on. Indiana survived at Toronto because of an offensive implosion by the Raptors. The Pacers scored 90 points in that game. They followed that up with an 89 point outburst at Charlotte, the worst team in the league last year by far. With both offenses underperforming and Indiana off an embarrassing loss we look for defense to be the key tonight. PLAY UNDER |
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11-01-12 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 43 | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 11 m | Show | |
302 Kansas City at San Diego
Overall 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series finished under this posted total, the lone game to surpass this number happened earlier this year in a 37-20 San Diego win. But both teams combined for a whopping 7 turnovers in that contest and the total yardage of 646 doesn't equate to 57 points scored. The closing total in that game was 43 so there hasn't been any total adjustments since that time. Kansas City as of this writing doesn't know who will be behind center, but does it really matter? Neither Quinn or Cassel has excelled in the past and there is no reason to expect anything different here. Kansas City is in line for the top draft pick this year and a new quarterback will join the club in the off-season. Therefore expect the Chiefs to keep the ball on the ground and run clock. After all they have scored just 16, 10 and 6 points the past three games. Defensively KC has permitted just one opponent all season to surpass 379 total yards as this defense is likely the most underrated in the league. San Diego is thought of as a quality offensive football team but that's just not the case any longer. In seven games this season only twice have the Chargers surpassed 310 total yards, against Tennessee and New Orleans, likely the two worst defenses in the league. Defensively San Diego has held all but one opponent (New Orleans on the road), to less than 390 yards. San Diego has lost the turnover battle the last three games while Kansas City hasn't won a turnover battle all season. Therefore we expect a very conservative game plan from both teams which means plenty of rushes and time off the clock. PLAY UNDER |
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10-27-12 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 57.5 | 9-23 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show | |
205 Michigan at Nebraska
Despite the fact that Michigan has held five straight opponents to 13 points or less, we expect this to be a high scoring affair similar to the 45-17 contest from a year ago. The Wolverines have looked good defensively but they have faced the likes of Massachusetts, Notre Dame, Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State, all teams that struggle to put points on the board. Offensively Michigan has only struggled against Alabama, Notre Dame and Michigan State, three elite defenses. Nebraska's stop unit is far from elite, in fact this is a terrible match-up defensively for the Black Shirts. Because of the way Bo Pelini teaches defense the defensive backfield is left out on an island, which makes the Huskers susceptible to a running quarterback like Michigan's Robinson. So look for a big offensive game from the Wolverine backfield which will open up passing lanes for the receivers. While Nebraska really struggled against a similar styled quarterback in Miller of Ohio State, the offense can trade points with anybody. Nebraska has scored 29 points or better in every game this season including averaging 32.3 ppg in Big Ten action. PLAY OVER |
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10-27-12 | Hawaii v. Colorado State UNDER 52 | 27-42 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 42 m | Show | |
141 Hawaii at Colorado State
Both teams are coming off an extra week to prepare after being scorched defensively heading into the break. Hawaii permitted 35 to New Mexico, 52 to San Diego State, 47 to BYU and 69 to Nevada. Colorado State allowed 38 to San Diego State, 28 to Fresno State, 42 to Air Force, 31 to Utah State and 40 to San Jose State. So you know exactly what area both coaching staffs have been working on the last two weeks. Each team has just a single win on the season with the Rams beating in-state rival Colorado in the season opener while the Warriors' lone win came against FCS entrant Lamar. We expect both squads to play very close to the vest because turnovers have been a major reason for their lack of success this season. Colorado State has lost the turnover battle in all but two games all year, and Hawaii amazingly has lost the turnover battle by at least two in every single game against FBS competition. The Warriors high offensive output on the year against FBS schools was 24 against Nevada, being held to 14 or less in 3 of 5 games against FBS opposition. Colorado State on the other hand reached a peak of 22 points in the opener against Colorado. Neither team has what you could call a potent passing game and with all the turnover problems between these two expect a steady diet of the running games. PLAY UNDER |
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10-21-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Buffalo Bills OVER 46.5 | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 38 m | Show | |
415 Tennessee at Buffalo
The Titans on the road have allowed 38, 38 and 30 points. Tennessee has permitted 390 yards or more to every team but one, in that lone game they gave up 38 points to Houston. Only once has a Tennessee total not gone over this current number and that was against the defensive minded Minnesota Vikings. Last year the league average yards per pass was 7.1, so far this season every single Tennessee opponent has surpassed that number. Only twice all season has a Bills game stayed under this posted total, against Cleveland and Arizona. Keep in mind in just about every Buffalo game the opposing defenses were superior to the offenses. Kansas City, Arizona, San Francisco and the NY Jets. Those are low totaled teams and Buffalo has still averaged 54.3 total points per game in their six contests. Buffalo started the season scoring 28, 35, 24 and 28 points until running into the NFC West defenses of San Francisco and Arizona. Now playing the weakest stop unit they have faced all season we expect Buffalo to go off offensively. Defensively this is a team that has permitted 48, 52 and 45 points all clearly season highs for the opposition. This stop unit is very overrated. PLAY OVER |
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10-14-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. Baltimore Ravens OVER 44.5 | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 92 h 11 m | Show | |
Dallas at Baltimore
The Cowboys offense has been a major disappointment thus far scoring 18, 16 and 7 points the past three games. Coming out of a bye what do you think the Cowboys were working on? Dallas has been a quality offense in the Tony Romo years and he has a slew of talented players around him. While we don't like the ownership or the coach the team has offensive talent. The last three years coming out of the bye week Dallas averaged 26.7 points per game. Baltimore is a team that wants to push the pace offensively and they are coming off a game in which they failed to score a touchdown against the Chiefs. The last time the Ravens failed to reach double digits they put up 30 last year against Arizona as the two teams combined for 57 points. After scoring 23, 31, 23 and 44 points to open up the year we look for a fast paced offensive success game from the host. PLAY OVER |
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10-06-12 | UNLV v. Louisiana Tech OVER 69 | 31-58 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show | |
385/386 UNLV at Louisiana Tech
The Rebels are a much improved offensive team after scoring 17.3 and 18.4 points per game the last two seasons. The signal caller actually has the ability to throw downfield which is something this team lacked the last few years. Nick Sherry is a very talented but young quarterback that keeps defenses honest by not keying on the running game. This team scored 38 against Air Force and 27 vs Washington State, two teams with similar defenses to Louisiana Tech. Defensively the Rebels have permitted at least 30 points to every FBS squad they faced this year, although the Minnesota game did go into triple overtime. Each of the last three opponents totaled 35 and we see this explosive Bulldog offense easily surpassing that total. Louisiana Tech is averaging 52 points per game. They scored 52 against a Big 10 defense and 44 last week against a decent Virginia stop unit. The total points scored in their four games were 105, 93, 76 and 82. UNLV has the worst passing defense they have faced, so it will be easy picking for this Bulldogs squad offensively. Defense is an entirely different matter for this team. Only the offensively inept Illinois team failed to reach 37 points against the Bulldogs, and they managed 24. Louisiana Tech reminds us of those old Denver Nuggets teams of the NBA. They wanted to score so many points they let the other team score at will just so they could get the ball back. Last week Virginia averaged a whopping 11.4 yards per pass attempt against this team and the Cavaliers have a very weak passing game. UNLV gave up 35 points to Washington State only because Mike Leach doesn't have a clue. If he had continued to attack the Rebels through the air his team would have easily surpassed 50, Sonny Dykes isn't so forgiving. PLAY OVER |
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09-13-12 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers OVER 51 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
Chicago at Green Bay
Scoring was up in the preseason and it continued through the opening week with an average of 48 1/2 points being scored. There has been some speculation that holding isn't being called enough by the replacement officials which gives a huge edge to offenses and offensive lines. With passing games taking advantage we will once again look for another preponderance of Overs in week 2 action. Last week Chicago put up 428 yards of offense, a number surpassed just once all last season for the Bears. Jay Cutler is healthy and he has a better receiving corps this season. Defensively the Rams fared well against Chicago last week producing 356 total yards despite a negative 4 turnover margin. Green Bay had just 324 total yards of offense against the Niners a week ago. Only once all season last year did they perform worse. In the game following those offensive struggles Green Bay put up 35 points against this Chicago defense in a 35-21 victory. The Packers are known for their offense and when they suffer a loss they rebound very well offensively. Here are the point totals in Green Bay games off a loss the last few years when not having a bye the following week: 56, 54, 43, 52, 50, 58, 62, 53, 66, 24 and 58 points. Overall 9 of those 11 games went Over the closing total. With the Green Bay defense still struggling and the Packer running game remaining a problem we look for Aaron Rodgers to air it out on a regular basis. PLAY OVER |
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09-08-12 | Akron v. Florida International OVER 53.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 77 h 6 m | Show |
379 Akron at Florida International
The Zips have a new coaching staff led by Terry Bowden who came to fame at Auburn and being the son of Bobby Bowden. The rotund coach wants to speed up the game and keep the ball in the air. They did just that against Central Florida producing 81 plays while the Zips averaged just 66 snaps a year ago. New signal caller Dalton Williams looks to be a major upgrade at the quarterback position from a year ago as Clayton Moore was a fill-in at best behind center. The numbers won't show it because of many dropped passes but Williams really impressed in his first game at Akron. Defensively the Zips are very small along the line and Central Florida just handed the ball off with great success. Akron allowed 4.9 yards per carry a season ago and the Knights pounded the Zips for 4.5 ypc last week. We look for more of the same from a Florida International team that ran the ball for 4.0 and 4.7 ypc the last two seasons. Mario Cristobal has done a great job at Florida International since taking over an 0-12 team in 2007. Last year the Panthers went 8-5 and participated in a bowl game. His team took a major jump defensively a year ago going from 27.3 ppg allowed to 19.5. Despite returning 10 starters to that side of the field they are bound for some regression. Akron has been a sieve defensively on the road as of late allowing 68, 51, 35, 31, 59, 42, 37, 30 and 38 points the last nine away from home. In fact, the Zips have permitted 27 points or more in 15 straight road games. Last year FIU won 27-17 in Akron but the Zips have a far more dynamic offense this year, and the plays will be coming fast and furious. More plays equal more scoring opportunities and we want to get ahead of the crowd early as we expect Akron's totals to skyrocket. PLAY OVER |
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08-03-12 | Texas Rangers v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Texas @ Kansas City
Matt Harrison takes the mound for Texas and he's due for a little bit of regression. He's pitched exceptionally well for making eight of his 19 starts in Texas. He's been even better on the road, with a 3.01 ERA in 11 starts. Harrison enters the start with a 3.19 ERA, but a FIP of 3.76, a xFIP of 4.13, and a SIERA of 4.27. SIERA is a sabermetric stat that measures "Skill-Indicative" ERA. Harrison's 4.27 would be considered "below average", as 3.90 to 4.20 is considered "average". Basically, what SIERA says is that because Harrison's strikeout numbers are down and he's allowing more contact, he should be allowing more hits. More hits means more baserunners and more baserunners means more runs. Harrison's BABip and left on base percentage are both below his career averages, while his strikeout percentage has gone down. This points to Harrison getting relatively lucky. In regards to the Texas lineup, they're having their way with Anaheim and that should continue given the pitching matchup. Jeremy Guthrie has been awful all season long. The amazing thing about Guthrie is that pitchers with high ERAs usually have lower FIPs because they're just getting unlucky or plagued by bad defense. Guthrie's 6.68 ERA is followed up by a 6.37 FIP, so he's pitching as bad as his ERA would indicate. He's striking out fewer hitters, he's walking more hitters, he's giving up a home run every four innings. It's been a year to forget for Guthrie. The Royals offense got on track against the Indians and they're playing pretty good ball right now. The Royals also excel at stealing bases and Mike Napoli is only throwing out 20% of runners this season. Teams haven't run much on Harrison this year, but the Royals are in "What do we have to lose?" mode and could take off at will. PLAY: TEX/KC OVER |
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08-02-12 | Toronto: H Alvarez v. Oakland: B Colon UNDER 7.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Oakland
Two pitchers who force hitters to put the ball in play will take the mound to kick off the Toronto/Oakland series. Bartolo Colon is averaging just 1.46 walks per nine innings and Henderson Alvarez is issuing just 2.14 walks per nine innings. The Athletics are third in the AL in walks, but last in the league in batting average, so a pitcher like Alvarez who forces them to put the ball in play is not a good matchup. The major chink in Alvarez's armor this season has been his very high HR/FB% of 17.4%, allowing 20 HR in just 126 innings. Nighttime in Oakland should neutralize that statistic for this start. Oakland is batting just .222 at home this season. The Blue Jays have three key parts missing from their lineup in Jose Bautista, Adam Lind, and JP Arencibia. They've hit at times, but have struggled to hit in the west coast pitchers' parks, batting .178 in Oakland and Seattle this year, batting .173 as a team in Oakland last year, and batting just .206 in Oakland in 2010. PLAY: TOR/OAK UNDER |
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08-02-12 | San Diego Padres v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 8.5 | 4-9 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
San Diego @ Cincinnati
The San Diego Padres have a hard enough time scoring runs without having to face Johnny Cueto. The Padres are averaging just 3.75 runs per game this season and that number doesn't bode well for them facing Cueto, who has a 1.94 ERA at home this season. Factor in a getaway 12:30 start time for a west coast team flying back home after the game and the fact that the Padres aren't playing for anything but pride, and there's definitely a chance that they mail it in against Cueto. By the same token, the Reds know that they don't need to hang a big number against Ross Ohlendorf to give Cueto a good chance at win #14. Ohlendorf really hasn't pitched well this season, but his last three starts have been something to build on with a 2.89 ERA over 18.2 innings of work. With travel always a consideration for the Padres during day games, they're hitting just .235 as a team during the day. With Cueto on the mound, it could be quick and painless for the Padres before they head back home. The Reds also have a big series against the division rival Pittsburgh Pirates on the horizon, so they'll be looking forward to that. There's also the chance that the Reds sit some guys in light of the Brandon Phillips calf injury that will sideline him for a while and the fact that Joey Votto is still on the DL recovering from a torn meniscus. PLAY: SD/CIN UNDER |
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08-01-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 8 | 4-0 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Arizona @ LA Dodgers
Patrick Corbin will take Josh Collmenter's spot in the D-Backs rotation. Corbin pitched admirably in a brief stint with Arizona earlier this year and has good numbers in the minors this season, but he'll have some extra pressure placed on him now, pitching in the finale of a critical series. Facing the Dodgers revamped and revitalized lineup, Corbin will have his work cut out for him. Shane Victorino and Hanley Ramirez has to be a shot in the arm for a Dodgers team that has only scored about four runs per game this season. Stephen Fife has two rather impressive outings under his belt, but there are some trends that lead to him getting rocked in the near future. So far, even with teams not having much of a scouting report on him, he's averaging only 2.7% swinging strikes, so, batters are making a lot of contact. More than that, he posted a 4.31 ERA in Triple-A in 19 starts this season and a 4.43 ERA in the minors in 2011. The PCL has some good offense, but those numbers are still cause for concern when translating to the Majors. Fife has already walked six and thrown two wild pitches in 12.1 innings. He's gotten extremely lucky with balls put in play and that luck will run out very soon if he keeps being erratic and getting guys into good hitters' counts. Phil Cuzzi will be behind the plate and he's averaging 8.85 runs per game and 6.7 runs per game from starters. PLAY: ARI/LAD OVER |
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07-31-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Cleveland @ Kansas City
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then it is a duck, right? This total looks far too low given how awful Derek Lowe has pitched, the Indians record of success against Luke Hochevar, and the fact that lefties are hitting .294 off Hochevar this season. Lowe has posted a 7.91 ERA in his last nine starts and just looks like he's out of gas. In 20 starts, he's walked more than he has struck out and is allowing 1.64 baserunners per inning. In four of his last nine starts, he's given up seven runs or more. In 10 road starts, Lowe has a 5.81 ERA and opponents have batted .323 off of him. Hochevar does not like facing the Indians. In 13 starts against the Indians, he has a 5.87 ERA. Several Indians have had success against Hochevar including Shin-Soo Choo (15-for-25, with 3 HR), Jack Hannahan (7-for-16, 5 XBH), Michael Brantley (7-for-17), Asdrubal Cabrera (9-for-24). Over the last two seasons, at Kauffman Stadium, the Indians have scored 93 runs in 12 games. Their offense seems to come alive in KC. PLAY: CLE/KC OVER |
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07-30-12 | Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Houston @ Milwaukee
There's no doubt that the Houston Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball. They're giving up 5.8 runs per game since the All-Star break and that number could look even worse after Bud Norris takes the mound for Houston. Norris has posted a 7.46 ERA away from home this season. Norris hasn't fared very well against the Brewers with a 4.50 ERA in nine starts. The Astros do struggle offensively, but they face Marco Estrada of the Brewers who is 0-4 with a 4.91 in 11 starts and has given up 11 HR in just 58.2 innings. In three starts since the break, Estrada has been even worse, posting a 5.94 ERA in 16.2 innings of work. Estrada is averaging just 5.1 innings per start this season, which could help to expose a Milwaukee bullpen that has a 4.63 ERA this season. PLAY: HOU/MIL OVER |
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07-30-12 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Detroit @ Boston
Max Scherzer and Clay Buchholz may be starting to figure it out after both of them had horrible starts to the season. Scherzer has posted a 2.77 ERA in his last eight starts while Buchholz has posted a 2.47 ERA in that span. Both guys are trending upward and that's bad news for two offenses that have struggled over the last week. The Tigers faced off with the Indians and the Blue Jays are scored just 18 runs in those six games. The Red Sox faced the Tigers and Yankees and managed just 20, but eight of them came in one game. Scherzer is 4-0 over his last five starts while Buchholz has won four of his last five decisions. With two pitchers throwing with a lot of confidence and two offenses that are having some difficulties, this total is inflated a little bit because of the perception of both offenses and because of Fenway Park and it's hitter-friendly dimensions. Scherzer's ERA at 4.49 is more than half a run above his FIP of 3.85 and a full run above his xFIP of 3.44. He's gotten unlucky this season. Buchholz has been good against the Tigers in seven starts with a 3.83 ERA. PLAY: DET/BOS UNDER |
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07-27-12 | Chicago (A): C Sale v. Texas: Y Darvish UNDER 9 | 9-5 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Chicago White Sox @ Texas
Chris Sale takes on Yu Darvish in the first game of a critical weekend set for both ballclubs. Sale has been a stud this season, going 11-3 with a 2.37 ERA with 108 strikeouts against just 29 walks. Darvish has had a few ups and downs this season, but they've mostly come in his second or third start against a team. When facing a team for the first time, Darvish has a 2.55 ERA in 10 starts. Darvish prides himself on throwing a lot of different pitches and it takes hitters time to get accustomed to what he's throwing, hence the success the first time out against a team. Darvish is averaging 10.24 strikeouts per nine innings while Sale is at 8.26. Anytime a ball isn't put in play in Texas, that's a big deal. The Rangers have scored just 62 runs in 18 games so far in July and the White Sox are going just over four runs per game on the road. With two pitchers that neither offense is overly familiar with and a couple of guys who have good swing-and-miss stuff, runs could be at a premium. PLAY: CHW/TEX UNDER |
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07-25-12 | Detroit: M Scherzer v. Cleveland: D Lowe OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Detroit @ Cleveland
Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Tigers and Progressive Field has been a house of horrors for him in his career. In four starts, he's 0-3 with a 7.48 ERA. Scherzer was beaten up at Comerica Park earlier in the season by the Indians who tagged him for eight runs, five earned, in just 4.1 innings of work. Scherzer has also struggled in 11 road starts to the tune of a 4.99 ERA. As for Derek Lowe, he's posted an 8.31 ERA in his last 10 starts and a 12.21 ERA in his last three home starts. After leading the league in ERA after his May 15 start, Lowe's ERA has risen a full three runs over those 11 starts. He doesn't strike anybody out and one of the Tigers' few offensive weaknesses is the K. Lowe got bombed by the Tigers in his only start against them this season, giving up seven runs in five innings on June 7. With the Indians track record against Scherzer and how awful Derek Lowe has been for over two months, there should be some offense in this game. PLAY: DET/CLE OVER |
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07-25-12 | Tampa Bay: D Price v. Baltimore: M Gonzalez UNDER 8 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Baltimore
David Price has given up three runs or less in 16 of his 19 starts this season. That trend should continue when he faces the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday night. Price has a career 2.58 ERA against the O's and has a 1.91 ERA in his last six starts overall. The Rays and Orioles are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the AL, each averaging just 4.1 runs per game. Miguel Gonzalez has pitched well since moving into the Baltimore rotation and the Rays have not seen his stuff yet. Gonzalez's problem has been the home run, as he's allowed four in 19.1 innings as a starter, but the Rays have hit just 90 home runs so far this season. The Rays are averaging less than four runs per game in the month of July and that should work to Gonzalez's benefit. The Orioles also have one of the league's strongest bullpens, with their five main bullpen arms all having ERAs below 3.14. PLAY: TB/BAL UNDER |
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07-24-12 | Detroit: D Fister v. Cleveland: U Jimenez UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Detroit @ Cleveland
Already outlined in the Detroit play is how good Doug Fister has been against the Indians, especially as a member of the Tigers. By the same token, as inconsistent as Jimenez has been, he has pitched well against the Tigers this season. Jimenez is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA against the Tigers in 2012 and would be best be described as "effectively wild". Jimenez has also been much better at home this season, posting a 3.66 ERA in three starts. Really, the reason for this play is that the total is 9. It's hard to imagine the Indians scratching out more than three runs against Fister given their career numbers and Jimenez has been able to minimize damage against the Tigers this season. These two teams have played six times this season and four of them would have stayed under the total of nine, and three of them would have done so easily. In this matchup, the pitchers are very familiar with the hitters. PLAY: DET/CLE UNDER |
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07-22-12 | New York (A): C Sabathia v. Oakland: B Colon OVER 7.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
New York Yankees @ Oakland
CC Sabathia, an Oakland-area native, has struggled when pitching in Oakland in his career. With friends and family usually present, Sabathia has a 4.84 ERA in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum in 23 career starts. Sabathia has also struggled on the road this season in nine starts with a 4.30 ERA. Bartolo Colon's last start against the Yankees was a forgettable effort, pitching six innings and giving up six runs. Colon has also struggled in Oakland's pitcher-friendly conditions with a 4.55 ERA at home this season. The Yankees offense has been held to just three runs in the first two games of the series and they're too talented to be held down for long. Colon throws a lot of pitches in the strike zone and the Yankees will have extra incentive to produce offensively because they're staring at a three-game sweep at the hands of the mediocre Athletics. PLAY: NYY/OAK OVER |
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07-21-12 | Texas: Y Darvish v. LA Anaheim: E Santana OVER 8 | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
Texas @ Anaheim
Yu Darvish is making his third start against Anaheim this season. In his third start against Seattle, Darvish gave up seven runs on eight hits and walked four in 6.1 innings. In his third start against Oakland, Darvish pitched better, allowing three runs on five hits over seven innings. Darvish has struggled when facing a team for the third time, like he will face Anaheim for the third time on Saturday. Darvish has walked 37 on the road in 55 innings compared to just 20 walks in 54 home innings. Ervin Santana hasn't pitched well this season with a 5.60 ERA. His 5.41 FIP shows that he is, in fact, pitching as bad as it seems. His walk rate is at a career high 3.62 per nine innings and his strikeout rate is a career low at 6.17 per nine innings. Santana hasn't given up less than four runs in a start against an A.L. team since May 15, a span of six starts. He also has a career 5.50 ERA against Texas. PLAY OVER |
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07-06-12 | Seattle: K Millwood v. Oakland: T Milone UNDER 7 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Seattle at Oakland
Kevin Millwood has pitched pretty well this year but the Mariners simply cannot score runs when he is on the mound. They have produced just 18 runs in his last six starts. Millwood has a solid 3.71 career ERA against the A's. Tommy Milone has been amazing when pitching at home this year. He and the A's have permitted 1, 2, 1, 4, 0 and 0 runs in his six home starts. Oakland has been held to 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 10 games and that includes playing in Texas where offense reigns supreme. In the last six games played between these two there have been just 25 total runs scored, just 4.2 runs per game. Milone has a 2.77 career ERA vs the Mariners. PLAY UNDER |
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07-06-12 | Chicago Cubs v. New York Mets UNDER 7.5 | 8-7 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Chicago at New York
Travis Wood has pitched well in his short career vs the Mets with a 2.31 ERA. In his last three starts overall he and the Cubs have permitted just 3 total runs. In three of his four road starts this season the Cubs have held the opposition to 2 runs or less. Johan Santana has a career 1.89 ERA against the Cubs. Pitching at home this season he and the Mets are allowing 0, 0, 0, 3, 1, and 4 runs. As you can see the last three times he took this mound the opposition didn't score a single run. PLAY UNDER |
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07-05-12 | Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 10 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Texas at Chicago
Other than his last outing in which both teams pulled out the whipping sticks, Quintana has been impressive since his call up. His prior starts resulted in 0, 2, 1, 4, 3, and 3 runs for the opposition. Overall 4 of his 5 qualifying starts went under the posted total using our True Runs Formula. Matt Harrison has been about as consistent as anyone this year. In his last eight starts he and the Rangers have permitted just 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 3, 2 and 1 run. This total of double digits is simply too high for these two pitching staffs. PLAY UNDER |
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07-01-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Miami
Our True Runs Formula stats show that the Phillies are 44-13 to the Over in qualifying games this season with Blanton showing an 8-4 Over personal mark. Miami checks in at 37-19 Over on the season with Nolasco showing a 10-2 Over personal mark. Nolasco's last three outings resulted in 15, 20 and 12 total runs being scored. He pitched better last time out but the bullpen exploded. Blanton and the Phillies have won his last four starts but it had more to do with the bats than his pitching. PLAY OVER |
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06-25-12 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Nice spot to go Over with a couple of overrated starters. Gallardo has a 7-5 Over/Under mark on the season using our True Runs Formula, Latos sits at 8-4 Over on that chart. In Gallardo's last five starts he has permitted 3 runs or more each time. He owns a career 5.13 ERA against the Reds. Latos has gone seven straight starts of allowing 3 runs or more. He is the owner of a career ERA of 4.63 against the Brewers. In his last five starts a total of 71 runs have been scored by both teams. This 8 1/2 we are seeing is a very cheap number. PLAY OVER |
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06-22-12 | Cleveland Indians v. Houston Astros OVER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Cleveland at Houston
Jimenez put up two quality outings in a row holding the opposition to 1 and 2 runs in the process. Then last time out the Pirates of all teams put up 9 on the righty and his teammates. Jimenez doesn't have confidence in his fastball and he has thrown too many of his lesser pitches. He isn't nearly the same pitcher the Indians traded for at this time a year ago. On the season 6 of his 9 qualifying starts have surpassed the posted total with our True Runs Formula. Harrell has had 4 of his 5 qualifying starts go Over the Total with our True Runs Formula. In his last four starts the Astros have permitted 8, 9, 8 and 13 runs. In those games the total runs scored by both squads were 11, 20, 17 and 18. This is a very cheap number to reach for both teams. PLAY OVER |
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06-19-12 | Baltimore Orioles v. New York Mets OVER 8 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Baltimore at New York
After being shutout last night in New York we look for the O's to have some success against Johan Santana. The veteran lefty took a great deal of positive press after back to back shutouts including a no-hitter against the Cardinals, but the games surrounding those outings have been awful. Prior to those contests he and the Mets permitted 5,6 and 6 runs, while since they have allowed 9 and 6 runs. He's been either very good or very bad and lately the negative has outweighed the positive. Tommy Hunter and the Orioles have permitted 6, 4, 6 and 8 runs his last four outings. On the season his True Runs Formula has produced a 5-2 Over/Under record in qualifying games. Santana is sitting at 6-2 Over/Under in his qualifying starts this season. PLAY OVER |
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06-17-12 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Milwaukee at Minnesota
Zach Grienke has pitched much better at home than away since joining the Brewers. This year he has a 7-2 Over/Under mark in qualifying games with our True Runs Formula. He has been terrific his last three starts which gives us added value in looking for the Twins to have success today. The larger sample size take precedence over a three game sample which we all learned in the quality writing from "The Book." Minnesota sends the always hittable Nick Blackburn to the hill. Blackburn has a 4-2 Over/Under mark in qualifying Total Runs games. His last starts have resulted in 7, 6, 7, 6 and 5 runs for the opposition. PLAY OVER |
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06-16-12 | Chicago White Sox v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 5-4 | Win | 102 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Chicago at Los Angeles
Phillip Humber hasn't been the same since the perfect game. He and the Sox have permitted 11, 9, 2, 8, 2, 9, 8, 6 and 10 runs in his last nine starts. The Dodgers are a perfect team to pick apart his average stuff. Chad Billingsley is having a solid season record wise, but most of the reason is because the Dodgers are pounding the ball when he is on the mound. The White Sox have the ability to take him long which gives us plenty of quick hit chances to surpass this posted total. PLAY OVER |
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06-16-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 7.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Toronto
Very much like the White Sox/Dodgers game last night the linesmaker has made this number too low based on the starting pitching. Philadelphia has been a much better hitting team this year than the public realizes as according to our True Runs Formula they have posted a 38-8 Over/Under record. In Cliff Lee's qualifying starts the Phillies are a perfect 4-0 to the Over. Ricky Romero has a 7-1 True Runs Over/Under record this season. The last five times he has taken the mound resulted in 74 total runs scored. A line in the 7 1/2 range is rare for a Toronto home game as the only other two instances happened when the Jays faced the light hitting Tampa Bay Rays. PLAY OVER |
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06-15-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 7 | 5-0 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Arizona at Los Angeles
Both teams are picking it up offensively and we really don't understand this game being lined at just 7 runs. Cahill starts have gone over the total in 5 of 8 qualifying games according to our True Runs Formula. The Angels are also very familiar with his pitches after his time with the A's. Haren has a quality reputation but he's not having a very good year at all by his standards. Yet this total is more based on his past history than anything he has done this year. Overall 6 of 9 starts have gone over the total in qualifying games based on our Total Runs Formula. His last three starts have resulted in total runs scored of 16, 10 and 11. The Angels offense struggled when taking on the Dodgers but the Diamondbacks don't have the pitching horses. PLAY OVER |
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06-14-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Minnesota Twins OVER 9 | 6-1 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Cheap total here considering the struggles lately of these two pitching staffs. Going into Wednesday action Philadelphia had allowed 11, 5, 6, 6, 8 and 6 runs the past six contests. Using our True Runs Formula the Phillies are 37-8 Over/Under on the season with Joe Blanton posting a 7-3 mark in qualifying games. The Twins are 23-15 Over/Under on the season with our True Runs Formula and Diamond is 3-1 Over/Under in his four qualifying starts. Heading into yesterday's action the Twins had permitted 7, 8, 3, 7 and 6 runs and the Phillies lit them up for 6 in the first inning last night. Minnesota has scored 42 combined runs in Diamond's seven starts this year. We expect the high scoring contests to continue. PLAY OVER |
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06-13-12 | Los Angeles Angels v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 104 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
LA Angels at LA Dodgers
CJ Wilson is on quite a roll as of late holding the opposition to 2, 2, 2 and 0 runs in his last four starts. On the season Wilson has put up a True Runs Totals Record of 2-8 in qualifying games. Eovaldi for the Dodgers has been equally impressive in his three starts holding opponents to 1, 3 and 2 runs himself. All three of his starts easily staying under the total according to our True Runs Formula. Typical Dodger home games are lined in the 6 to 7 range and with two hot hurlers this line at 6 1/2 looks like a bargain. We expected to see a line of 6 here so we will gladly stay under this posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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06-13-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
This sure is a high total for a Pirates game. Only three times all season has a Pittsburgh game featured a total of 9 and 2 of those 3 games stayed below the total. Kevin Correia has had one game all season in which the two teams combined for over nine runs. According to our True Runs Formula 8 of 10 games pitched by Matusz have stayed under the posted total in qualifying games. Only once all season has a Matusz start gone over nine runs and that was way back in his second start of the year. These two teams are not offensive forces, they are teams with solid pitching and timely hitting. Not the type of teams who dent the scoreboard on a regular basis. Off a rare 14 run output yesterday we look for a regression here as this game stays well under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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06-12-12 | Houston Astros v. San Francisco Giants OVER 6.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Houston at San Francisco
Tough to post a total of 6 1/2 with this Houston pitching staff. As of late they have permitted 9, 10, 3, 14, 4, 8, 3, 12, 4, 11, 13, 7, 9, 5 and 6 runs. The starters have struggled and the bullpen is exhausted. The offense is capable, scoring 20 combined runs the past three games. Norris and the Astros have permitted 25 runs in his last four starts. The Giants have battled injuries offensively all season and now they are starting to get healthy. After facing the tough Texas pitching staff they are taking a major step down in pitching talent for this series. Both teams have shown plenty of value with totals as our True Runs Formula clearly likes to play these two clubs Over when the time is right. This is a clear play with our season to date numbers. PLAY OVER |
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06-12-12 | San Diego Padres v. Seattle Mariners OVER 6.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
San Diego at Seattle
The Padres are putting together some solid offensive performances as of late, especially on the road. They have scored 5, 5, 5, 6, 3 and 7 runs away from home in the last six contests. They are facing a Felix Hernandez who is not 100% after being pushed back from his last start. On the season Hernandez has posted a 5-3 Over/Under mark in qualifying True Run games. Clayton Richard is known to have a severe home/road dichotomy. In six road starts this season he and the Padres have permitted 41 total runs. According to our True Runs Formula his games have gone Over the posted total at a 6-2 qualifying clip. We look for these teams to easily surpass the posted total of 6 1/2. PLAY OVER |
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06-10-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Baltimore
No team in baseball has made more money with our True Runs Formula than playing Philadelphia Phillies games Over. Now 36-8 on the season including the first two games of this series. That was against closing totals of 9, today we are seeing a consensus of 8 across the board. Neither pitcher has a history of pitching well against the opposition. In fact, Cliff Lee is a perfect 4-0 to the Over in his qualifying starts this year with our True Runs Formula. This is a cheap number considering each hurler's history and we take full advantage. PLAY OVER |
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06-09-12 | Cleveland Indians v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 | 0-2 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Cleveland at St Louis
Justin Masterson has been a disappointment this year for the Tribe. His True Runs Record is 2-8 and 5 of his 8 qualifying games have gone Over the posted total. In four road games this season the Tribe has allowed 30 runs in his starts. Kyle Lohse started the year strong but he's regressed as the year has unfolded. In 6 qualifying games 5 of his starts have surpassed the posted total according to our True Runs Formula. On the season the Cards are 29-10 over according to our True Runs System. We look for another high scoring contest. PLAY OVER |
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06-06-12 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Toronto at Chicago
Yesterdays game was lined at 8 with Romero and Humber on the mound, yet the line has gone up a half run with Morrow and Quintana on the hill. Not sure we're seeing much difference in the quality of starters here. According to our True Runs Formula Morrow is 5-3 on the season staying under the posted total in 5 of 7 qualifying games. In 6 of his last 8 starts the Jays and Morrow have held the opposition to 2 runs or less. Quintana has done everything asked of him since being called up. In both his starts against Cleveland and Tampa Bay the opposition finished the game with 3 runs. As opposed to the 14 run output from last night we expect this to be a low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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06-05-12 | San Francisco: T Lincecum v. San Diego: A Bass OVER 6 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
San Francisco at San Diego
In years past we would often see a Tim Lincecum total set in the 6 and 6 1/2 range for good reason, but this isn't your typical Tim Lincecum. His True Runs Record this season is 2-6 and his games have gone over the Total to the tune of 8-1 with our True Runs Formula. Here is a listing of how many runs the opposition has scored when Lincecum starts a game: 4, 7, 6, 5, 6, 6, 1, 1, 5, 17 and 5. Only twice all season have he and the Giants pitched a quality game. Sure the Padres are not a good hitting club, especially at home but on the season they have a True Runs Over/Under mark of 21-13. Bass himself has a 5-3 True Runs Over/Under mark on the season. In his last two starts the opposition has scored 8 and 6 runs against the Padres and that was against the Cubs and Mets. The only way we lose this total is if both teams combine for five or less runs, it wouldn't surprise us at all to see this number surpassed in the first six innings. PLAY OVER |
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06-05-12 | Los Angeles: Billingsly v. Philadelphia: C Lee OVER 7 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Los Angeles at Philadelphia Over
Granted the Dodgers don't have a great deal of offense right now without Matt Kemp, but Cliff Lee is having his worst season in years. Yet he continues to be priced like the old Cliff Lee. Sure he's still a quality starter but he's not putting up the type of numbers we have seen from him in the past. Despite being short handed offensively the Dodgers have a 21-14 True Runs Over/Under mark on the season with a current 9-4 run. Philadelphia is thought of as a weak offensive team yet their True Runs Over/Under for the season is 32-8 with a current 20-2 run. In Cliff Lee starts in which the True Runs qualified he's 4-0 to the Over. PLAY OVER |
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06-03-12 | Miami Marlins v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
Miami at Philadelphia
Carlos Zambrano is having a bounce back year under Ozzie Guillen and pitching in Miami has been a big boost to his performance. Still he has posted a 5-3 Over/Under ratio this year using True Run Stats as the Marlins have surpassed the posted total in 10 of 12 qualifying games. Joe Blanton is always a pitcher who can blow up at any minute as he needs pinpoint control to be successful. He has posted a 6-3 Over/Under margin on the season with our True Runs Formula with the Phillies going Over in 9 of their last 10 qualifying games. PLAY OVER |
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05-28-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. New York Mets OVER 7 | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at New York
Because of the initial thoughts of these two offenses, and the perceived strengths of the starters we are getting a total that's simply too low. When breaking down these teams in the True Runs category Philadelphia has a 27-8 Over/Under mark while the Mets sit at 25-11 towards the over. Cole Hamels supports a perfect 4-0 record towards the over while Niese has gone over 3 of 5 qualifying games. The Mets just hosted the poor hitting Padres and we saw totals of 7, 7 1/2 and 8 twice. Only one of those games fell below the number of 7 with an average of 8.5 runs being scored. Philadelphia just faced the excellent pitching of the Cardinals and those games produced totals of 19, 8, 4 and 11 runs. None of those games were lined at this number of 7. PLAY OVER |
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05-26-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics OVER 170 | 75-85 | Loss | -101 | 34 h 35 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Boston
Because of the low scoring game six this total has been adjusted by an amazing 5 points from the previous game. These two teams are averaging 178 points in this series yet this total is sitting at 170 as this analysis is written. Neither team has shot well from behind the arc and yet these teams have still put points on the board. This total is the lowest posted total in the entire series, yet we all know neither team will be willing to concede anything in the final minutes. That means more fouling and more free throws, which also leads to more scoring. We simply can't see how we don't see a bounce back in offense here, especially considering the quotes from the Boston coaching staff. PLAY OVER |
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05-22-12 | Washington Nationals v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 6 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Washington at Philadelphia
In True Run numbers this season Washington has posted an 18-13 Over/Under mark. With a game totaled at 6 1/2 or less Washington games have gone over 9 of 15 occurrences. The Phillies have a True Runs mark of 23-7 Over/Under on the season. The reason is simple, the team is without their big bats and for the most part the starters have been healthy. Therefore an over adjustment has been made in the totals. In Roy Halladay starts 5 of 6 have surpassed the total in True Runs. On the season in games lined at 6 1/2 or less the Phillies have surpassed the posted total 11 of 13 times. PLAY OVER |
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05-20-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 | 4-16 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
Minnesota at Milwaukee
The Twins offense has been in hibernation for most of the season so we are able to find value at a reduced price. The team is hitting well as of late producing 11, 4, 11 and 5 runs the past four games. The True Runs scored in those four contests resulted in 7, 5, 8 and 4 which means this current runs scored streak isn't a flute. Zack Greinke has struggled in his career against Minnesota posting a 4.96 career ERA in 103.1 innings of work. We expect Minnesota to continue their solid hitting against him. Jason Marquis hasn't had the best of success against Milwaukee either with a 4.95 career ERA in 109 innings. The Twins have yet to allow less than four total runs when he takes the mound this season. With the total sitting at less than nine we look for a high scoring affair. PLAY OVER |
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05-11-12 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Colorado at Los Angeles
Low total in a Jamie Moyer game is always a solid reason to play the Over. Moyer has a lifetime 5.50 ERA in his 72 inning career against the Dodgers. And keep in mind much of that was in his prime. Moyer is a crafty pitcher but his best days are behind him. Capuano has also seen better days and say what you want about this Rockie pitching staff this team can hit. Neither team has solidified the bullpen and this is a very low total considering the offenses and the starters. PLAY OVER |
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05-04-12 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 204 | 84-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Los Angeles at Denver
It worked for us last time out and we expect the pace to be quicker today as Denver tries to force the Lakers out of their preferred half court game. The Denver players talked about it before the last game and they had success running late as they made a game of it. Now in elevation and back at home we expect Denver to push the pace. Los Angeles is able to dictate the flow at home but that hasn't been the case away from home. Look for both teams to have offensive success and Denver to find easier baskets in their own arena. PLAY OVER |
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05-02-12 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 185 | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
LA Clippers at Memphis
The closing total in the first game of the series was 183 1/2 and the lines makers opened this game at 186 1/2 until early smart action drove it down to the current 185 number. We feel there is still plenty of value in this number as the Grizzlies shot lights out from behind the arc last game, and that's not likely to happen again. Memphis will really be fired up defensively after allowing the Clippers to shoot 50% from the field and post the biggest comeback in LA Clipper history. Memphis has held the opposition to double digits in 19 of 21 games so they know how to defend. In a game they must have after blowing what many would have considered an insurmountable lead, we expect defense to be the calling card for both teams on Wednesday. PLAY UNDER |
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05-01-12 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 200 | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Denver at LA Lakers
We believe the betting markets have made too much to an adjustment for game two. In the opening contest the game was totaled at 203 and now we are seeing 200's here after a 191 output in the opener. But keep in mind that Denver shot only 35.6% from the field and the Lakers blocked a whopping 15 shots. Los Angeles also only shot 15 free throws in that game, a rarity for a home contest with Kobe Bryant healthy. The Denver players openly said they needed to beat Bynum down the court in order to get easier scores. That means more fast break points for Denver and more possessions in the game. We expect more of an open offensive contest as this one flies over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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04-29-12 | Boston Celtics v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 179.5 | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Boston at Atlanta
These two teams have been very competitive this season with final point margins being 5, 3 and 2 points in overtime. The current line on this game points to the expected closeness of this series. So from a side angle we don't see much of an edge. Where we do see an edge is in the total. Despite the linesmaker posting a total of less than 180 we still feel the under has a lot of value. In the three meetings the total points scored were 155, 174 in overtime and 189. But keep in mind in that final matchup of 189 not a single player in Boston's Big Four played a single minute. Therefore in our opinion that game can be thrown completely out of the equation. The posted totals in the first two games were right in line with todays mark with 182 and 179 1/2 being the goals. With a very similar number set here in a playoff game we feel the line is still too high. PLAY UNDER |
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04-28-12 | New York Knicks v. Miami Heat UNDER 186.5 | 67-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
New York at Miami
With this abbreviated NBA schedule it was tougher than ever to gauge how teams would perform on any given day. You had to handicap the schedule just as much as the team. A good way to lesson the variability is checking to see how teams performed when both were rested. With so many back to back to back and four games in five day occurrences you are sure to not get 100% effort every game. When two teams enter a contest rested you for the most part can be assured of a better effort. In looking at this matchup we found that in games when both teams were rested the Knicks went 14-20 to the Under while the Heat were 12-29 to the Under. New York was a much better defensive team after the coaching move and the Heat are simply a much better defensive team that struggles many times offensively. When installed as a home favorite Miami is on a 4-15 Under run since Mid-January. In two home games against the Knicks the final scores were 190 and 188 points, both before the coaching change which emphasized defense. We look for a low scoring contest here. PLAY UNDER |
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04-24-12 | New York (A): H Kuroda v. Texas: Y Darvish OVER 10 | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
New York at Texas
Kuroda is a fly ball pitcher playing in a high scoring ballpark against what is likely the best hitting lineup in baseball. Darvish is a pitcher who nibbles the corners and pitches into high counts which isn't good against a very selective Yankees lineup. That combination results in many men on base and high scoring ballgames. While the current number of 10 may look a bit high, these two teams can put up runs in a hurry. PLAY OVER |
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04-17-12 | Texas Rangers v. Boston Red Sox OVER 8.5 | 18-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Texas at Boston
We were extremely surprised to see this total come out as low as it has at 8 1/2. We were expecting to see a 10 here. Texas played three road games at the very pitcher friendly Target Field with all three games lined at 8 1/2. That was against a very feeble Minnesota offense. Boston played four games at home against a weak hitting Tampa Bay squad. Those games had posted totals of 8 1/2, 9 twice and 10. John Lester is the ace of the Boston team but he has really struggled against Texas as of late. Cruz and Napoli are 11 for 21 against him which contributes to his .894 OPS allowed to the Rangers. Colby Lewis has a 5.01 ERA in his career vs the Red Sox and Ortiz and Gonzalez have completely worn him out. Those two are a combined 11 for 22 with 5 home runs against him. He has a lifetime .829 OPS against the Sox. With this line being at least a full run shorter than we expected we will fire away at the over in a high scoring affair. PLAY OVER |
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04-07-12 | Toronto: B Morrow v. Cleveland: U Jimenez OVER 8 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
Toronto at Cleveland
Morrow has really struggled in his career against these Cleveland lefties and the Tribe has left-handed batter or switch hitters at virtually every position. Morrow has a career 5.28 ERA vs the Tribe as they haven't been intimidated by his impressive fastball. Jimenez has been terrible since joining the Tribe and as a Cleveland fan we were hoping he would have taken his suspension for this game. His appeal puts money in our pockets as we can take advantage of his loss of command and decrease in velocity. This number is based on the name of these pitchers and not current form or history, and we take full advantage. PLAY OVER |
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04-05-12 | Philadelphia: R Halladay v. Pittsburgh: E Bedard UNDER 7 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
The Phillies start the season short-handed with two big offensive boppers out of the lineup. Here they take on a healthy Eric Bedard who has been terrific in the past when avoiding injuries. With minor league lifers and career bench players taking over key roles for the Phillies we expect a slow offensive start. Roy Halladay is Roy Halladay and that means a long night for the Pirate bats. Nobody prepares harder in the off-season so we expect the big man to come out of the gate firing. We like this young Pirate offense but this is a tough match-up to start the season. PLAY UNDER |
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04-04-12 | St Louis: K Lohse v. Miami: J Johnson OVER 7 | 4-1 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
St Louis at Florida
Last year Kyle Lohse's starts went over the posted total of seven 16 times while going under only 8 times. He is not the Cardinals ace but somehow he has been given the opening day start. Josh Johnson is coming off a severe injury and we expect his innings to be limited. Therefore early trips to the bullpen could be in store for both teams. Tonight marks the official opening of the new stadium in Miami. The initial reports would be that it would play out as a pitchers park. But in watching early preseason action there the ball seems to travel very well, especially when the roof is open. We expect both teams to have success tonight as Miami's offense is healthy and the Cardinals are only missing OF Allen Craig. PLAY OVER |
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03-31-12 | Louisville v. Kentucky UNDER 137 | Top | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 55 h 15 m | Show |
Louisville & Kentucky
The Wildcats have been running the opposition out of the building in this tournament and it makes a great deal of sense. If you have the more talented team your advantage grows with every extra possession. But Louisville and the coaching staff are way too smart to fall into that trap. They know the way to beat Kentucky is to limit opportunities and Louisville's ugly offensive play only helps the cause. This game is being played in The Superdome which provides unique sight lines, therefore producing lower scoring games. With the recent Kentucky contests sailing over the posted total the linemakers have been forced to post a higher line as they expect over action. With the general public not knowing the true value of the total they will in turn bet the over which gives us extra value on playing this one under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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03-27-12 | Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 196.5 | 101-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Atlanta at Milwaukee
Talk about tired legs. The Hawks are playing their 4th game in 5 days off a 4 overtime contest on Sunday against the Jazz. That's like virtually playing 4 1/2 games in 5 days with the final scores being decided by 9, 3 and 6 in 4 overtimes. That's a great deal of high intensity minutes played by the Hawks. To make matters worse all four games will be played with travel involved. Milwaukee will also look to slow the pace as this is their 5th game in 6 days before a long deserved two day break before traveling to Cleveland. This game could also feature a playoff type intensity as both teams look to bolster their playoff seeding, something to look at as this shortened season winds down. PLAY UNDER |
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03-24-12 | Florida v. Louisville OVER 131.5 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Florida & Louisville
Short and sweet analysis on this one. We had the under in the last Louisville game as the contest was a brick fest and the game easily went under the number. The public saw the Spartans completely collapse offensively against this solid Louisville defense. That was a Michigan State team that many felt was heading back to the Final Four. Now the line is very reasonable to take a look at the over in this game because of the over-adjustment and the go against the public line of thinking. Florida has a much better shooting team from long range than anyone the Cardinals have played thus far in the tournament. The Gators are also a team that wants to get out and run, which should provide easier baskets. We take advantage of recent results and look for this game to fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-22-12 | Louisville v. Michigan State UNDER 125.5 | 57-44 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Louisville & Michigan State
Really wanted to play the Spartans here but never saw the line we were looking for. Thought about the money line but again with the side going up 1/2 point we were never able to get a qualifying money line play. So instead we will attack this game where we do believe we have value and that is with the total. Louisville is one of the worst shooting teams in college basketball but they play tremendous defense. The Cardinals rank 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency while the Spartans rank 3rd. But it's the Louisville offense that we take advantage of here as they don't have the depth to make this a faster paced game. In our opinion it's a terrible offensive match-up for the Cardinals and Michigan State will have their own problems scoring against this Louisville press. The line has been bet up a point so the way we will play this one in under the total. PLAY UNDER |
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03-04-12 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 192.5 | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Miami at LA Lakers
Both teams come into this game rested which should help the defenses. On the season 12 of 20 Miami games with both teams rested went under, while 8 of 17 Lakers games did the same. The Lakers have Detroit, Washington and Minnesota on deck while Miami has New Jersey up next. Therefore this is by far the most important contest on the schedule for these two. The earlier meeting this season resulted in a 98-87 Heat victory with the game going under by 7 points. Both teams were rested before that contest. With the hard foul by Wade on Bryant ramping up the intensity, we look for a playoff type defensive struggle. PLAY UNDER |
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02-29-12 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. New York Knicks UNDER 193 | 103-120 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Cleveland at New York
In the past when Anderson Varejao was injured the Cleveland defense suffered badly, but not this season as the Cavs have continued to play solid defense in his absence. That's great news going forward when the young dynamo returns to action. But it also helps us tonight as we expect Cleveland to hold its own against this New York offense still trying to make the pieces fit after Linsanity has taken the city by storm. On the season 6 of 9 games playing unrested have gone under for the Cavaliers as they continue to be a solid surprise with its young roster. New York is known for its offensive past but this year its all about a slower pace and low scoring affairs. Amazingly this season New York has stayed under the posted total in 17 of 20 games when installed as favorites. Even more impressive is 15 of the last 16 in that role have failed to reach the posted total. As a home favorite 10 of the last 11 games have stayed under the number and in the only other meeting this year with Cleveland the two teams totaled 172 points, 24 below the posted total. Yesterday 67% of the games stayed under the posted total with rested clubs, we expect more of the same here. PLAY UNDER |
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02-28-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 183 | 97-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Detroit
The Sixers have struggled as of late because its defense hasn't been nearly as successful as early in the season. After having five days off we expect defense to be the focus once again for the 76ers. It's picked up a bit of late as four straight games have stayed under the posted total. As a favorite 19 of 26 games have stayed below the posted total this season for Philadelphia. In the two prior meetings with Detroit the games went under by margins of 17 and 8 points, scoring just 169 points twice in the process. Detroit has trended higher scoring as of late but they have played a lot of young teams looking to push the pace. That's not likely the situation tonight as Philadelphia knows in order to win they must keep the pace to a crawl. Overall 12 of 20 Detroit games have stayed under the total when neither team has had a rest advantage which will be the case tonight. We look for another low scoring affair. PLAY UNDER |
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02-21-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 190 | 97-137 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
San Antonio at Portland
The Spurs are playing its eighth road game in a nine game road trip tonight in Portland. It's the yearly rodeo trip and it's been very successful once again for Spurs backers. San Antonio has won every game thus far posting a 5-1-1 spread mark. San Antonio played last night at Utah and won 106-102. Now they play unrested against the unrested Blazers. This season when playing unrested against an unrested foe 4 of 6 games have stayed under the total for the Spurs. The Blazers are playing it's sixth game in the last eight days. They also played last night in Los Angeles losing to the Lakers 103-92. When unrested playing an unrested opponent 5 of 6 games have stayed under the posted total for the Blazers. With both teams slowing the pace in this situation and with both on tired legs we can't see either team looking to run tonight. The prior meeting this season resulted in 182 points, a full 13 points below the closing total. We look for another strong defensive effort. PLAY UNDER |
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02-11-12 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 185 | 99-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Philadelphia at Cleveland
The Sixers are coming off a brutal schedule having faced in order Orlando, Chicago, Miami, Atlanta, the LA Lakers, San Antonio and the LA Clippers. They are playing their third game in four days having gone head to head with the Clippers last night in a 78-77 defeat. We can't see the Sixers having much energy tonight and they already prefer the slower pace. Off a straight up loss Philadelphia has stayed under the posted number the next game 6 of 8 contests. Cleveland is playing their fourth game in five days having gone to overtime last night against the Bucks. The Cavaliers are already playing short handed with Parker, Thompson and Irving in and out of the daily lineup. The likely rookie of the year will be out again tonight as he recovers from a concussion. That leaves a tired team with many players not used to the minutes they have been receiving as of late. Which also should lead to a slower paced game. PLAY UNDER |
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02-07-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Boston Celtics UNDER 177 | Top | 84-94 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Charlotte at Boston
The Bobcats are by far the worst team in the league right now as they are decimated by injuries and they lack competitive talent. Charlotte has dropped 17 of 18 games and the coaching staff knows the only way to be competitive is to slow down the game. By milking the clock the Bobcats can remain somewhat competitive, especially on the road where 9 of the last 10 games have stayed under the posted total. Boston has won 8 of 9 games with the only loss coming by a single point. There is little doubt from the Celtic brass that they will win this game, and with a huge game on deck against the hated LA Lakers we can see Boston just trying to get out of this game healthy. Overall 9 of 11 Boston home games have stayed under the posted total with the two overs coming by just 4 1/2 and 2 1/2 points. In home games where both teams are rested 8 of 9 occurrences have gone under. We look for a slow paced low scoring game tonight. PLAY UNDER |
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02-06-12 | Phoenix Suns v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Phoenix at Atlanta
The Suns are an aging team that doesn't push the pace as in previous seasons. That's especially true when playing on the road. In the road underdog role 9 of 12 games have stayed under the posted total. That mark improves to 8 of 10 when Phoenix is rested. This total is currently sitting in the 188 range which is a bit high considering the Sun's pace against an Eastern Conference squad. Overall 7 of the last 10 Phoenix games have stayed under this posted total while the Hawks have gone under this number to the tune of 7-2-1 the last ten games. Atlanta is off back to back home losses allowing 98 and 96 points in the process. We can see the Hawks bringing a strong defense tonight. Overall 7 of 10 Atlanta home games have stayed under this posted number. This line suggests the Suns will push the pace but we've seen no reason for that to occur. PLAY UNDER |
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02-01-12 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 184 | 68-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Charlotte at Portland
With the latest injuries to the Bobcats it's clear that this is currently the worst team in the league. So what should a team with the worst personnel do? Slow down the game and limit possessions. That's exactly what Charlotte has done as of late in the road underdog role. The last four games in that role have gone under the posted total by margins of 1, 21, 25 and 8 1/2 points. As a double digit dog this season Charlotte has stayed under the number in 6 of 9 games including 5 of 6 with one game going over by 1/2 point. When unrested the Bobcats have stayed below the total in 5 of their last 7 games. Portland has to travel to Sacramento tomorrow so we expect limited minutes from the starters. The Blazers have gone under this posted total in 8 of their last 11 contests. As a home favorite they have stayed under the posted total by margins of 13, 5 1/2 and 4 1/2 the last three occurrences. As a double digit favorite Blazers games went under both times by a combined margin of 20 points. PLAY UNDER |
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01-28-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 177.5 | 74-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Detroit at Philadelphia
The Pistons are playing their third game in the last four days after going to overtime last night against the Hawks. In nine games as a road underdog this year the Pistons have gone under the posted total eight times. They have no interest in pushing the pace here as evidenced by the previous meeting between these two as Philadelphia won 96-73 staying well below the number. The Sixers are in the same 3 in 4 and second of back to back situation as Detroit. When Philadelphia has played unrested and been the favorite 3 of the 4 contests have stayed under the total. When they can control the tempo the Sixers prefer to slow the pace. Philadelphia has been a home favorite 11 times this season with 10 of those games staying under the posted total. In the last 11 days the Sixers have played seven games including two that went to overtime. We expect the tired legs to affect the shooting percentages here and we can't see either team pushing the pace. PLAY UNDER |
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01-24-12 | New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 192.5 | Top | 111-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
New York at Charlotte
The Knicks are a bad defensive team but the offense is playing without any type of rhythm this season. New York is known as an offensive team yet they have gone under the total in regulation play 9 of the last 10 games. The lone over was by just 2 points. When playing on the road Knick games are a perfect 6-0 to the under by a combined 44 points. Overall 6 of the last 9 New York games have stayed under this current total in regulation. This is the third time in this young season that these two clubs have tangled. They know what the other is trying to do, and the players are well informed as to what the go-to moves are of the player they are guarding. Last time out in New York the game played to just 178 points and the Knicks tend to push the pace more in front of their home fans. With Charlotte on a 1-10 straight up run they know the way to beat these Knicks is in a half-court game. Overall 8 of the last 11 Bobcats games have played under this posted total. We look for another low scoring affair here. PLAY UNDER |
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01-23-12 | Detroit Pistons v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 187 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Detroit at Oklahoma City
The Pistons know they can't compete on the road against this type of competition. Therefore they need to slow the pace in order to shorten the game. Overall 7 of 8 road games have stayed under the number for Detroit and against elite teams away from home Detroit played Chicago 18 points under the total. Only three Pistons games this year have surpassed this posted line. Oklahoma City is in the midst of playing an extremely easy schedule. New Orleans, New York, Boston, Washington, New Jersey, Detroit, New Orleans and Golden State. They are off 6 of 7 games in which they won by 9 points or more, they have no reason to push the pace here. The Thunder have gone under this posted total in 3 of their last 5 games. PLAY UNDER |
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01-21-12 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets UNDER 192 | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
San Antonio at Houston
The Spurs are an aging team with a key offensive ingredient out of the lineup. They are playing their 4th game in 5 days off a straight up home loss to Sacramento yesterday. San Antonio has dictated playing time based on the schedule thus far this season as coach Popovich wants to rest the legs of his tired players in anticipation of the playoffs. When the Spurs have played unrested this season they have gone under the posted total in 4 of 5 games. We expect San Antonio to try to slow down the pace here and we feel the Rockets will oblige. The Rockets are 1-7 O/U this season when playing an unrested team, seven straight times going under in this scenario. They are playing their 3rd game in 4 days so they will be very willing to slow the pace just like the visitor. The last time Houston played was Thursday and they had to go to overtime against New Orleans. As a home favorite Houston has gone under the posted total all four games and they are now 0-7 O/U at home this season. PLAY UNDER |
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01-18-12 | Memphis Grizzlies v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 178.5 | Top | 93-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis at New Orleans
These two just met on Saturday when the Grizzlies pounded the Hornets 108-99, easily surpassing the posted total of 175. But Memphis pushes the pace at home as witnessed by their 6-1 trend to the overs in home games. On the road Memphis has stayed under the posted total in all five contests, by margins of 11, 6, 20 1/2, 19 1/2 and 16 points. New Orleans isn't a dynamic offensive team, they need to win with defense. Which is why 5 of 7 home games have stayed under the posted total including four straight. The 108 points they allowed on Saturday to the Grizzlies was by far the most points they have permitted all season. We look for New Orleans to set the pace here as this game stays well below the posted total. When the Hornets and their opponent are both rested the under has come in 4 of 5 contests. PLAY UNDER |
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