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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-13-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Oakland A's OVER 8 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
971 Chicago White Sox at Oakland |
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05-07-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
974 Philadelphia at Toronto |
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05-03-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | 9-8 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
972 Seattle at Houston |
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04-29-14 | Washington Nationals v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
978 Washington at Houston |
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04-28-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
914 Cleveland at LA Angels  |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
978 LA Angels at NY Yankees |
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04-24-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
913 Chicago at Detroit
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04-23-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198 | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
729 Dallas at San Antonio Word out of Dallas last night was the Mavericks were working on speeding up the tempo in their series against the Spurs. It wouldn’t hurt to step up the pace considering Dallas has dropped ten straight to San Antonio. But the problem for the Mavericks is that the Spurs are just as good in the open court.Â
San Antonio was the best three point shooting team in the league during the regular season, but the Spurs shot just 3 of 17 in the opening game, thus slowing the scoring pace. With Dallas wanting to run and the scoring options of the Spurs we can see this game flying over the posted total.
PLAY OVER |
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04-23-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
974 Chicago at Detroit Â
It should be a fun day to be a hitter in Detroit on Wednesday night when the White Sox and Tigers continue their AL Central series. Andre Rienzo will take the mound for the Pale Hosers against Drew Smyly for the Tigers. Rienzo has made four appearances this season, three of them are starts in Triple-A. In those three starts, he lasted just 13 total innings, allowing seven runs and 22 baserunners. He also uncorked three wild pitches. Rienzo became the first Brazilian-born pitcher to make it to the Major Leagues last season and he made 10 underwhelming starts. In those 10 starts, opposing batters hit 11 home runs and drew 28 walks in just 56 innings.
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Rienzo doesn't miss bats at the Major League level and his heavy sinker won't be conducive to the White Sox average infield defense. There's just not enough depth in Rienzo's arsenal to give him a lot of hope against a strong Tigers offense, especially if Miguel Cabrera is going to start coming out of his slump.
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Drew Smyly is a promising young pitcher, but this is a tough assignment for him. Smyly was forced into bullpen duty last season and began this season in the pen before making his first start of the season against Anaheim on the 18th. He lasted just three innings and allowed four runs. On the year, Smyly has faced 23 right-handed batters. Ten have reached via hit or walk. Righties slugged .404 off of Smyly last season and had a line drive rate of over 26 percent. The righty-heavy White Sox lineup should be able to tee off on Smyly and also get into the Tigers bullpen early on. The Tigers are weak at middle relief right now with the Luke Putkonen injury and Smyly elevated to the rotation.
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PLAY: CWS/DET OVER |
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04-22-14 | New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
923 NY Yankees at Boston
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Great pitching will be on display Tuesday night at Fenway Park when Masahiro Tanaka makes his debut against the Red Sox and Jon Lester makes his 28th career start against the Pinstripes.Â
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Masahiro Tanaka has definitely come as advertised for the Yankees. Through three starts, he has 28 strikeouts against just two walks. His elite control was one of the major selling points and he has carried that over to the big leagues. He's also missing barrels and inducing a lot of ground balls with his splitter. Four of the five earned runs off of Tanaka have come on home runs, so teams aren't exactly stringing hits together to create innings. The usually powerful Red Sox have hit just 17 home runs so far and with Tanaka's elite command and control, it's unlikely that number will go up very much.
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Most importantly for the Yankees, Tanaka works deep into games to keep their mediocre bullpen out of the game. That will be a factor in this one because the Red Sox work counts, but they have yet to see Tanaka and that plays to his advantage because of his ability to spot pitches.
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Jon Lester has been excellent so far this season in four starts with a 2.17 ERA and a 2.35 FIP. He's striking out over 25 percent of opposing batters with a low walk rate of 3.5 percent. By PITCHf/x data, one of the biggest changes for Lester so far has been increased use of the cutter, which is an easy pitch for him to command and has good run away from lefties and jams righties. Missing barrels is critical in Fenway Park and Lester has been good at that so far.
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The Fenway Park factor and the reputation of these two teams has led to a total that is higher than it should be. In almost any other park in baseball, this total would be a 6.5, possibly a 7 with the under juiced. But we get value here, even though these two offenses aren't performing at nearly the level that they used to. We'll gladly take the extra value because of historical bias and look for a game with few baserunners and a lot of great starting pitching.
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PLAY: NYY/BOS UNDER |
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04-09-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners OVER 8 | 2-0 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
973 LA Angels of Anaheim at Seattle
The short two-game AL West showdown between the Angels and Mariners will wrap up on Wednesday night when Garrett Richards and Roenis Elias face off. This looks like a tough matchup for both pitchers. The left-handed heavy Mariners will get their shots against Garrett Richards, whose career splits against lefties aren't pretty with a .288/.362/.442 slash and a .352 wOBA. In a small sample size against the Mariners, a group consisting mostly of lefties has put up impressive numbers against Richards over 68 plate appearances with a .355/.412/.516 slash. Richards ran into a tough fifth inning against Houston in which he threw 35 pitches and exited the game. Towards the end of that start, Richards's velocity started to decline, leading to some erratic control. As a guy that has bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, it may take him some time to build up his arm and achieve maximum efficiency in his delivery. Against a lineup full of hitters that form a bad matchup for Richards, the Angels could dip into the bullpen pretty early in this one. On the other side, Roenis Elias is making his second career Major League start against a very tough lineup. Elias threw 75% of his fastballs for strikes, but out of a sinker, curve, and slider, Elias spotted just 13 of the 36 for strikes. Against righties, which Elias will face a steady diet of on Wednesday, he walked three and only threw strikes on five out of 23 non-four seam fastballs. A veteran lineup like the group the Angels have will eliminate everything but the fastball and hit it hard. Elias was pulled after 80 pitches, so the Mariners are both protecting the young lefty and also trying to minimize risk. The Mariners do have questions in middle relief, much like the Angels, so this could be a game where both starters are fortunate to last into the sixth, turning it over to the weakest part of both teams. Neither pitcher has a favorable matchup in this game and the bullpens could see quite a bit of action for the second straight night, since neither starter made it into the sixth on Tuesday night. PLAY: LAA/SEA OVER |
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04-08-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7.5 | 3-7 | Win | 101 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
901 Arizona @ San Francisco
Day baseball at AT&T Park on a Tuesday as the San Francisco Giants meet the Arizona Diamondbacks for the fourth time on the young season in the Giants Home Opener. The Giants will send Tim Hudson to the mound, while the Diamondbacks will counter with Trevor Cahill. Hudson was good in his first start against the Diamondbacks, but there's reason to expect that they will fare better the second time against him. Hudson, who has posted at least a 55 percent ground ball rate in every Major League season, was getting the ball up in his last start, as 12 of the 20 balls in play against him were either fly balls or line drives. Luckily for Hudson, he only allowed three hits. Unless he makes an adjustment to keep the ball down in this start that type of luck is unlikely to be repeated. Trevor Cahill threw a quality start in his last outing but concerns still reign supreme. He struggled with control for the second straight time out, a trend that began last season when he struck out fewer batters and walked more. Like Hudson, Cahill was unable to keep the ball down at the level that he's accustomed to. He threw first-pitch strikes to fewer than half of the batters he faced. The Giants and Diamondbacks are both scoring runs early on in the season and have shaky bullpens. Power has been on display for both teams as the teams have combined for 18 home runs. With a day game featuring sunny skies, temps in the 70s, and a slight wind blowing out, the ball should have a bit more carry than usual in San Francisco. Sinker ball guys like Cahill and Hudson have a tendency to leave the ball up when their arms are too strong and that could lead to some offense on Tuesday afternoon. PLAY: ARI/SF OVER |
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04-04-14 | Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
923 TEXAS @ TAMPA BAY
It should be a good day to be a hitter when Texas and Tampa Bay open up a weekend series at the Trop. Joe Saunders will take the mound as part of the beleaguered Rangers starting rotation and he'll be opposed by Jake Odorizzi. Saunders is proof that no matter what your ERA looks like, if you're durable enough to throw 180 innings with your left arm, you can find work. That left arm produced a 5.26 ERA last season with the Mariners in 32 starts. To put into perspective how bad Saunders was, look at his road splits. Opposing batters hung a .330/.387/.538 slash line on him with a .400 wOBA. To put that into even more perspective, here's the list of players that posted a .400 wOBA last season: Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Chris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Jayson Werth, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto, and David Ortiz. Righties slugged .559 against Saunders. The hits just kept coming off of Saunders in the second half of last season as opposing batters hit .351/.413/.569 and had a .424 wOBA. Only Miguel Cabrera had a wOBA above .424 last season. Mike Trout's was .423, so hitters off of Joe Saunders in the second half were essentially all Mike Trout. While Saunders may not be that awful, there's absolutely no reason to believe that he's going to be a lot better than that. Also, in his second-to-last Spring Training appearance, Saunders allowed nine runs and attributed the struggles to a "dead arm". Not only are the numbers alarming, but Saunders may not even be healthy. Jake Odorizzi is a pitch-to-contact fly ball guy who would do well to post an ERA around 3.75 this season. There will be spots to back a guy like Odorizzi, but a lineup with a good amount of power like the Rangers doesn't seem like the place to do so. While Saunders is bad enough to keep us from going against Odorizzi at an attractive plus-money price, we expect the Rangers to also score some runs. In a small sample size of 95 batters, lefties have slugged .494 against Odorizzi. It's a small sample, but it does speak to how unrefined Odorizzi's breaking pitches are. The Rangers are full of veteran hitters that will force the youngster into the strike zone with fastballs and that should bode well for them. Over the course of the season, the Rangers should have a lot of success with righties and we're banking on them to do that on Friday night. PLAY: TEX/TB OVER |
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03-24-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 180.5 | Top | 77-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
612 Indiana at Chicago
These teams met just three days ago with Indiana winning at home 91-79. The coaching staffs talked about that game having a playoff type atmosphere and this game likely to play the same with adjustments being made. That means another low scoring affair with both teams trying to intimidate the opposition in what could be a possible playoff preview. Indiana has held 6 of 7 opponents to 94 points or less while the offense has been held to double digits in 9 of the last 11 overall. The Bulls have held 13 of 14 opponents under the century mark. Look for defense to rule the day here as these two prepare for playoff type basketball. PLAY UNDER |
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03-21-14 | Mercer v. Duke OVER 140 | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
823 Mercer & Duke
Mercer has the ability to score against anyone with 4 of top 5 scorers shooting over 39% from behind the arc. Regardless of the score the Bears will continue to shoot. They permitted just 67.5 ppg this year but against tournament caliber squads they allowed 82 ppg and none of those teams had the offense of Duke. Duke does defend the three very well but this contest isn |
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03-20-14 | Arizona State v. Texas UNDER 143 | 85-87 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
730 Arizona State/Texas Under
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03-02-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Orlando Magic OVER 213.5 | 81-92 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
805 Philadelphia at Orlando
The Sixers are just playing out the season after a very promising start. Very few of these players will be in the organization next year so it |
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02-24-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 208 | 130-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
701 Milwaukee at Philadelphia
Out of all the games on the Monday handicapping card how the hell did we end up with two terrible NBA teams tanking for ping pong balls? The answer is quite simple. Both teams know they have nothing to play for at this stage of the season other than personal statistics. No pressure of having to win and no coaches stressing defense. In the two prior meetings between these teams we saw point totals of 222 not once but twice. It |
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01-28-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets OVER 210.5 | 90-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
507 San Antonio at Houston
The Spurs have been sliding a bit as of late losing 3 of 5 after falling short in Miami on Sunday. With three key defensive players out of the lineup the Spurs aging veterans are being exposed. Harden has gone off for 30 points per game against the Spurs since coming over to Houston. In the two previous games this year the Rockets shot 25 of 54 from long range as the Spurs have had severe matchup problems with Houston. And keep in mind that both Green and Leonard are their two best defensive players on the perimeter, and both remain out. Without Splitter underneath the path to the basket for Harden becomes even wider. Coach Popovich is a tremendous in-game coach but we can |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 38.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 0 m | Show | |
303 San Francisco at Seattle
The first two times these clubs met the scoring was very low at 32 and 36 points. But those games were played in the regular season when teams with a lead tend to sit on that lead by running the football and taking time off the clock. We don |
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 46 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
101 Kansas City at Indianapolis
These two teams played just a few weeks ago and the Colts won 23-7 in Kansas City. But Kansas City didn |
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12-29-13 | Detroit Lions v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 51 | 13-14 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
319 Detroit at Minnesota
Both teams will be missing their best offensive weapon here as the Lions will be without Megatron and the Vikings will be missing Adrian Peterson. So why then are we playing this game over? This is a game being played inside in December with two quality scoring units. It |
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12-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 206 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
809 LA Clippers at Golden State
After JJ Redick went down the Clippers struggled a bit, especially missing his outside shooting. But in the last five games since moving Jamal Crawford into the starting lineup the Clips have exploded. Winners of five straight games and producing point totals of 113, 115, 108, 112 and 120. In the only other matchup between these two squads this year 241 points were scored. The Clippers are a very aggressive team that gets to the rim and also goes to the foul line often, scoring when the clock is stopped really helps us here. Golden State is now 2-9 straight up on the season against the Top 10 teams in the league. This is a team that had great success in the playoffs last year and is still resting on their laurels. In the last two weeks the Warriors have lost to the likes of San Antonio, Phoenix and Houston, three likely playoff opponents. The Warriors turn the ball over in 15.5% of possessions which leads to easy points by the opposition. This is one team that you just can |
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State OVER 65.5 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show | |
201 New Mexico Bowl Colorado St. v. Washington St.
The Rams have a 1.2 yards per play advantage but they have played a much easier slate of opponents. Colorado State permits 63.3% completions and they are facing off against a Cougars team that passes 77% of the time. The Rams victories this year have come against Cal Poly, UTEP, Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico and Air Force. None of those teams are going bowling this year. Washington State beat both USC and Arizona on the road, who are both playing in the post season. They also lost at Auburn by just 7 points. In fact, Washington State has played much better ball outside of Pullman. The Cougars haven |
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears OVER 47.5 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
159 Dallas at Chicago
A lot of money came in on the unders yesterday based on the cold weather forecasts along with snow flurries. While the weather obviously played a major part in Philadelphia with the snow accumulation, overall it wasn |
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12-08-13 | Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 54.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 7 m | Show | |
144 Detroit at Philadelphia
The Eagles offensive strength this season has been the running game, but that |
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 49 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
427 Denver at Kansas City
If you watched the first match-up it was clear that the Broncos were putting in an extra blocker to keep the pressure off Manning who was playing with an injured ankle. They relied on the running game to go along with the short passing attack. But now that Manning has had more time to rest and RB Marino is slightly banged up we expect the offense to open up a bit this week. The Chiefs haven |
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 46.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
305 Oakland at Dallas
This line has risen a bit from the opener but we expect it to rise even further once the game day bettors get involved. Oakland struggled for the most part offensively early in the season but because of injuries the Raiders had to make a quarterback change. Since that time McGloin and company have been pretty consistent moving the football. Point totals of 28, 20, 20 and 21 the last four games and that was against better defensive teams than what they will face on Thursday. When looking at yards per play for the entire season 3 of the 4 categories offensively and defensively between these two clubs far exceed the league average. If you break down the Oakland offense the last three weeks they too exceed league average. So even though the sample size is lower in this instance the QB change has increased offensive performance, therefore we feel those short term numbers are more predictive. Oakland has had trouble keeping the quarterback upright most of the season, allowing an 11% sack rate. But the last three games have seen a huge drop off to 3% sacks, as the blocking has really improved with a pocket passer. Dallas can move the ball on anyone and the defense is playing without key components. Even when healthy the Cowboy stop unit had many questions. On a short week of preparation we give the edge to the offenses who don |
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo OVER 72 | 35-17 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
105 Northern Illinois at Toledo
The MAC West all comes down to this. If Northern Illinois wins they play in the MAC Championship, if Toledo wins here and next week against Akron they are in. Both teams own outstanding rushing games which average 6.3 yards per carry. David Fluellen for Toledo, a solid runner will be a game time decision. He has been in and out of the lineup lately, but the Rockets are strong in the run game with or without him. The weather calls for a possibility of rain, but that shouldn |
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11-16-13 | Oregon State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
363 Oregon State at Arizona State
When handicapping games you must be able to look past what is obvious and find value in what many would overlook. Take for instance this Oregon State offense. The Beavers opened the season by scoring 46, 33, 51, 34, 44, 52 and 49 points. The last two games they were held to just 12 and 14 points. So obviously this offense is regressing. That couldn |
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11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 42.5 | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
219 Carolina at San Francisco
Dating back to last year the Carolina Panthers have scored 21 points or more on the road in 10 of their last 11 games away from Bank of America Stadium. Ever since the coaching staff took the reigns off Cam Newton this offense has exploded. The last four games the Panthers have produced 34, 31, 30 and 35 points. This offense is fully capable of moving the ball on San Francisco and doing so with relative ease. With San Francisco and New England on deck it |
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11-08-13 | Air Force v. New Mexico OVER 59 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
118 Air Force at New Mexico
This is an interesting handicap when it comes to the total. Both teams run forms of the option, which is what each squad sees in practice all season long. Therefore the defenses have an advantage. Both teams have struggled defending the pass, but neither team throws the ball very often. Therefore the defenses have the advantage. Both points involve sound reasoning. So why are we projecting a high scoring game? Because both of these defenses are terrible and both offenses can run the football. The FBS average is 4.3 yards per carry. Air Force runs for 4.9 ypc and allows 4.8. New Mexico on the other hand produces a whopping 6.3 ypc and allows the same 6.3 ypc. You don |
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11-08-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 205 | 79-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
508 Cleveland at Philadelphia Under
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10-28-13 | Boston Red Sox v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
BOSTON @ ST. LOUIS
With the series tied 2-2, both teams turn to their aces to try and a lead before the series heads back to Boston. Jon Lester gets the ball for the Red Sox. In four postseason starts, he has posted a 1.67 ERA and opposing batters are hitting just .204 off of Lester. What's nice for Lester is that he was able to throw some relatively stress-free innings in Game 1 as the Red Sox jumped out to a big lead. He'll also be pitching on regular rest and that's always nice at this stage of the season. The Cardinals ranked 27th against left handed pitching in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 26th in wOBA this season. Allen Craig, possibly the team's best hitter against southpaws, probably won't play since he appears unable to play the field. That should help Lester. Adam Wainwright looks to bounce back from a terrible Game 1 start. His defense didn't help him much, but Wainwright fought with his command on the big stage. Pitching in front of the home crowd should be a big boost to Wainwright. This postseason, even with his lackluster start in Game 1, Wainwright has a 2.25 ERA over four starts and has a 12/1 K/BB ratio. Wainwright was shaky on too much rest for Game 1 and he'll be back on his regular turn here. Home plate umpire Bill Miller is 174-117 in unders for his career behind the plate. That's nearly 60% unders. With two pitchers that throw a lot of strikes, it would seem that Miller is a pitcher-friendly umpire and that will make it a very difficult night for the hitters. PLAY: BOS/STL UNDER |
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions OVER 50.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
Dallas at Detroit
Tough scheduling spot for the Cowboys off televised affair with Denver, followed by important divisional games with Washington and Philadelphia. Dallas is now set up in good position to win this division as the offense has been outstanding. But we do have serious concerns about this defense who will be missing two key components on Sunday. This is a team allowing 5.7 yards per play while producing 5.8 ypp themselves, this against a pretty solid slate of opposition. They should have little problem moving the football against a Detroit defense that has yielded a whopping 6.3 yards per play. The league average in that regard is 5.4. The Lions permit 5.1 yards per carry so even a banged up Cowboy running game should have success. Offensively Detroit is dangerous, especially playing at home. Detroit has a bye week on deck and this game means much more to them than the Cowboys. That said Dallas is the better team but the spot screams Detroit. Rather than get too involved with the side here we will look for a shoot em out offensive affair, as we feel neither team will have much success stopping the opposition. PLAY OVER |
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10-24-13 | Marshall v. Middle Tenn State UNDER 57 | 49-51 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 43 m | Show | |
108 Marshall at Middle Tennessee State
The Thundering Herd came into the season with high offensive expectations. With NFL QB prospect Rakeem Cato at the helm and coming off a season where Marshall averaged 40.9 points per game, the sky was the limit for this offense. After averaging just 21.8 ppg in 2011 this scoring unit was due for regression and that's exactly what has happened to Doc Holliday's club. After starting the season strong against the likes of Miami Ohio and Gardner-Webb this team hasn't been nearly as dynamic offensively. On the season Marshall is averaging just 5.3 yards per play which is less that the FBS average of 5.6. That despite playing a very weak schedule. With Middle Tennessee currently sitting at the league average in yards per play against we can't see this Thundering Herd offense breaking out on Thursday. Marshall is averaging an FBS average of .39 points per play and that has again been vs weak opposition. Defensively Marshall has been extremely good over the course of the season. Allowing 4.5 ypp and .30 points per play. They should have little problem containing a Blue Raider offense that has been terrible all season. Rick Stockstill has done an excellent job since coming to Murfreesboro in 2006. He took his team to the GoDaddy Bowl in 2010 and is coming off a solid 8-4 season. But this years club pales in comparison, especially on the offensive side of the football. This club is averaging just 18.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. The passing game is at 8.8 yards per completion which is well below the FBS average of 12.1. This team can't extend the field offensively and they don't have the ability to come from behind. Defensively the Blue Raiders are grading out as an FBS average stop unit, but they have played a tougher schedule than today's opponent. Coming off back to back games against East Carolina and North Texas this stop unit won't be overwhelmed against this Marshall offense. With the two best units on the field likely being the defenses and with Middle Tennessee State having a hell of a time moving the football, points will surely be at a premium in this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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10-17-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 7.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
BOSTON @ DETROIT
Jon Lester and Anibal Sanchez meet in a rematch of Game 1 in Game 5 of the ALCS. Lester was terrific in the first game, allowing one run on six hits with just one walk and four strikeouts. Lester kept the Tigers off balance and his only blemish was a bloop single. Including his two postseason starts, Lester is 8-3 with a 2.48 ERA since the All-Star Break with an 85/26 K/BB ratio. The Tigers are getting some respect for their seven-run outburst, but Jake Peavy struggled as we correctly forecasted and the Tigers still failed to score in six of the eight innings. With Lester, we expect him to continue to change speeds effectively and have success against a lineup that still has a banged-up Miguel Cabrera and other guys who aren't "out" of their struggles just because of a lineup shuffle. Anibal Sanchez had some nasty stuff in Game 1, as the Red Sox puts just six balls in play against him. He struck out 12, but did walk six, over six no-hit innings. Sanchez held opposing offenses to a .268 wOBA at home, the 12th-best mark among starters in baseball. The 12 guys ahead of Sanchez mostly pitch in extreme pitcher's parks. It's important because the Red Sox led all of baseball in wOBA at .347 and all of baseball in road wOBA at .339. We'll side with the pitching in that category because the Red Sox have struggled and struck out a ton in this series and there's no reason to believe that Sanchez will have a bad outing. He should be in the top three in AL Cy Young voting behind Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish and has been terrific since the All-Star Break with a 2.20 ERA and a 2.50 FIP. Pitching will rule the day in Boston after these offenses got to break out a little bit yesterday. It'll be back to what we've seen from the starting pitchers in this series and Comerica Park's spacious outfield should come into play on a cool, damp night in the Motor City. PLAY: BOS/DET UNDER |
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10-16-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers OVER 7.5 | 3-7 | Win | 104 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
BOSTON at DETROIT
With starting pitching dominating the series thus far, the hitters have to be happy to see a pitching matchup that finally has the chance to allow some runs. Jake Peavy and Doug Fister will face off in Game 4 of the ALCS on Wednesday night. Peavy navigated his way through 5.2 innings against Tampa in the Divisional Series, but was hardly impressive. Against the Tigers, however, Peavy has been downright awful over the last three seasons as a member of the Chicago White Sox. In 55.1 innings, Peavy has posted a 6.18 ERA against the Tigers since the start of 2011. In those nine starts, Peavy has allowed 12 home runs. Doug Fister has thrown just seven innings since September 25 and that could be a problem for a control pitcher without a ton of margin for error. Fister is a ground ball guy, so he'll need to have his mechanics in order to keep throwing on that downward plane. In 114 plate appearances against Fister, current Red Sox hitters are batting .304/.377/.451/.828. This season, Fister was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA against teams below .500, but 5-7 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP against teams over .500. These two offenses are way too talented to be held down for long. Now that they're facing pitchers with less chance to be dominant, we expect both teams to break out in a big way. PLAY BOSTON/DETROIT OVER |
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10-11-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
LA DODGERS @ ST. LOUIS
Two pitchers with great traditional numbers and signs of regression in the advanced metrics square off in St. Louis for Game 1 of the NLCS. Zack Greinke will get the ball for the Dodgers. Greinke posted a 2.63 ERA, but a 3.23 FIP and a 3.45 xFIP. A drop in strikeouts led to a 3.67 SIERA. Greinke had the third-best ERA of all pitchers in the second half, but also stranded 87% of his baserunners. That's unsustainable for a starting pitcher, especially one with an above average, but not elite, strikeout rate. Only Yu Darvish had a highest LOB% in the second half, but he also strikes out four more batters per nine innings than Greinke. Greinke's .276 BABIP with 29 points better than his career average and falls outside the average range of .290-.310. His above average strikeout rate is not enough to fill this gap, which means that a little bit of luck played a factor. Where regression is evident, but not staring you in the face with Greinke, it's brightly-colored, loud, and jumping up and down for Joe Kelly. Kelly has very pedestrian stuff. Only Jeremy Guthrie had a lower swing-and-miss percentage in the second half, as opposing batters swung and missed just 5.4% of the time against Kelly. The reason that the second half is relevant is because 12 of Kelly's 15 starts came in that span. His arsenal of pitches is not deep. Kelly posted a 2.69 ERA, a 4.01 FIP, a 4.19 xFIP, and a 4.31 SIERA in his time as a starter and reliever. Kelly had the league's second-worst SIERA in the second half, again, spending most of that span as a starter. He had the fourth-highest zone-contact percentage in the second half and one of the lowest chase rates. Balls in play can always hurt you, but they're especially magnified in the playoffs where every pitch takes on greater significance. There could certainly be some offense in this game. We've been waiting for Kelly's fortuitous season to balance out for some time now and no better time than in the pressure-packed environment of the playoffs. Greinke has a 5.56 ERA in the postseason over four starts, so the pressure may get to him as well. We definitely think some runs will be scored in today's Game 1. PLAY: LAD/STL OVER |
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10-06-13 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers OVER 53 | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
Detroit at Green Bay
The Lions are averaging 30.5 points per game and it should be much higher. In watching this team we continue to see missed opportunities on the offensive end turning likely touchdowns into field goal attempts. Even though last weeks game against the Bears surpassed the posted total, it should have done so much quicker. This is a team averaging and allowing over 400 yards per contest. Considering they faced the struggling offenses of Minnesota, Arizona and Washington is especially telling. We saw how easily Jay Cutler moved the ball on them last week early on when the contest was still in question, that's likely to be the case here against the explosive Packers. The league average in points per play is .35. Green Bay and Detroit both average .40 both offensively and defensively. Green Bay is running the ball very well this year which was its problem in the past. The Pack should have great success on the ground against this very giving Detroit stop unit. Green Bay is off a heartbreaking loss and with a bye week they had another full week to stew. The Packers had that game against Cincinnati in the bag and then rested on their laurels, that's not going to be the case here. If Green Bay has the lead they will continue to pour it on, and considering Detroit hasn't won here in eons, that's likely to be the case. PLAY OVER |
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10-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 6.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH
The city of Pittsburgh is sure to be a crazy place on Tuesday night when the Reds and Pirates play the win or go home NL Wild Card game. The pitching matchup should live up to the importance of the game as Johnny Cueto and Francisco Liriano will do battle at PNC Park. Cueto enters the game with a 13-4 record and a 2.37 ERA against the Pirates in his career. Cueto is 8-2 with a 1.90 ERA in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Current Pirates are batting just .220/.299/.359/.658 off of Cueto in his career. Liriano has been very good against the Reds with no wins to show for it. In four starts, Liriano has held the Reds to a .193 batting average and has posted a 1.11 WHIP, but he's 0-3 on the season. Liriano has loved pitching at PNC Park this season, as he's 8-1 with a 1.47 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a .174 batting average against. Games at PNC Park this season have averaged just 7.1 runs per game and not many of those have had this good of a pitching matchup. Given the ramifications of this game, Cueto's experience, the Pirates playing very tense at home, and two very, very strong bullpens, we don't expect many runs in this game and expect PNC Park to continue to play big as it has all season long. PLAY: CIN/PIT UNDER |
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09-22-13 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets UNDER 39 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 6 m | Show |
Buffalo v NY Jets
Former Jets Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine is now at Buffalo and he is very familiar with this New York offensive personnel. Bills Head Coach Marrone completely shut down Geno Smith in two games as the coach at Syracuse. He did so by blitzing often and making him uncomfortable in the pocket. The Bills are only 2-13 SU on the road and despite the late game heroics against Carolina we don't trust a rookie QB to win away from home. The Jets have extra prep time after facing New England on Thursday and they have fared well as of late against the Bills. NY is allowing only 59.5 yards on the ground which puts the pressure on a rookie signal caller to make plays. Neither team has shown much of a passing game so we expect this contest to be played very close to the vest. PLAY UNDER |
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09-22-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Cincinnati Bengals OVER 48.5 | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show | |
Green Bay v Cincinnati
Key Packers running back Lacy was injured last week which points to more of an emphasis in the passing game for the Packers. They have plenty of weapons to exploit a Cincinnati defense that rarely plays this talented a unit in the AFC Central. Green Bay is outperforming league average offenses by over 10 points and 125 yards per game. They sit at a whopping 7.5 yards per play, doing so against San Francisco and Washington, two playoff teams from a year ago. The Bengals have faced better defenses than what they will see on Sunday, as Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland are a step above the Packers defensively right now. Although this Green Bay stop unit is better than a year ago and could be pretty formidable by the end of the season. Cincinnati is in a divisional sandwich game with Pittsburgh Monday night and Cleveland on deck. Don't know how much quality preparation they can do against this Packer offense on a short week. PLAY OVER |
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09-20-13 | Houston Astros v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
CLEVELAND v HOUSTON
Zach McAllister and Brett Oberholtzer will square off on Friday night in Cleveland as the Indians and Astros continue their four-game series. McAllister has 50 strikeouts in 59 innings since returning from the disabled list and that's a good sign for him going up against an Astros lineup that strikes out a ton. The Astros have never seen McAllister before and that should also help him out. He's pitching in line with his advanced metrics for the most part with a 3.96 ERA and a 4.00 FIP. McAllister's problem tends to be the long ball, but the Astros rank 26th in home runs on the road, which isn't surprising given that the ball carries well in their home park to put them in the middle of the pack. McAllister is around the plate a lot and the Astros have a very aggressive team. They'll expand the zone and McAllister should rack up some strikeouts and a lot of weak contact against this Astros lineup. Brett Oberholtzer made his Major League debut against the Indians, but only threw two innings. The Indians have great numbers against southpaws this year, but they struggle with lefties they haven't seen much of. The Indians have blasted guys like Chris Sale and knocked around David Price and Derek Holland, but they were stymied by guys like Andrew Albers and Vidal Nuno. Oberholtzer throws a lot of strikes, so the Indians probably won't have the benefit of the walk, a big part of their offense. The Indians also had a lot of bad swings against the unfamiliar arms in the Astros bullpen on Thursday night and they'll keep getting a steady diet of guys they haven't seen much of. PLAY: CLE/HOU UNDER |
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09-18-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 7.5 | 0-7 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
CHICAGO CUBS @ MILWAUKEE
Two pitchers that are definitely due for regression meet on Wednesday when Chris Rusin and the Cubs take on Tyler Thornburg and the Brewers. Rusin has a 2.85 ERA but a 4.27 FIP and a 4.38 xFIP. Even uglier, Rusin sports a 4.73 SIERA. Rusin has a K/BB ratio of 1.52, which is well below average. His .270 BABIP is very misleading and his 82.2% strand rate is simply not sustainable from a guy that has questionable control and very few swings and misses. The Brewers had nine baserunners in 3.2 innings off of Rusin in his last start against them, but Rusin and the bullpen managed to get lucky enough to hold the Brewers to two runs. Rusin has regression on the horizon and the Brewers and a hitter-friendly ballpark look like the right spot. Tyler Thornburg is a mystery. After posting an ERA north of 6.00 nearly all season long in Triple-A, he has come up to the Majors and posted a 2.18 ERA. Thornburg has a 22/13 K/BB ratio over five starts, but has somehow managed to only give up seven runs. As a flyball pitcher at Miller Park, Thornburg is playing with fire. In eight appearances at home, Thornburg has posted a 4.09 ERA, compared to an 0.85 ERA on the road. This is a game where bettors are just looking at the traditional metrics and assuming that the game will go under. It creates additional value for us that the total actually dropped to 7.5 at some books. If regression hits the way it should for both of these guys, this game should comfortably go over the total, and we're confident that it will go the way we expect it to. PLAY: CHC/MIL OVER |
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09-13-13 | San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
SAN DIEGO @ ATLANTA
After waking up a little bit offensively of late, the Padres head to Atlanta to open up a weekend set against the Braves. The Padres will send Ian Kennedy to the mound, while the Braves counter with David Hale, a 25-year-old right hander who will be making his Major League debut. Kennedy has been blasted by good teams this season, posting a 5.82 ERA in 12 starts against teams over .500. Kennedy has a 1.60 WHIP in those 12 starts. As a member of the Diamondbacks, Kennedy was 1-5 with a 5.26 ERA in road starts. With the Padres, Kennedy has made two road starts and has posted a 5.84 ERA in those two outings. The Braves have made it a point to wrap up the division as soon as possible and they're still playing for homefield advantage, which is critical, because the Braves are 51-20 at home and just 37-38 on the road. Current Braves have a .300/.393/.514/.907 slash line against Kennedy. David Hale has very pedestrian minor league stats and a strikeout rate that would be below league average at the Major League level. His minor league WHIP is 1.35 and he has a 3.5 BB/9 in the minors. Hale is a Marietta, GA native, so he'll be pitching in front of plenty of friends and family. Expect the nerves to be very high for him and as a guy who relies on changing speeds and pitching to contact, that could be a major concern. Most scouts project Hale to move to a bullpen role, which tells you about the depth of his stuff. There's nothing particularly special about Hale other than the fact that the Padres haven't seen him, but he won't overpower them. One bonus to Hale starting is that the Braves will be quite familiar with his backstory as a local kid with a dream to pitch for the Braves, so they'll definitely try to get him some run support and make his debut a very special night. PLAY: SD/ATL OVER |
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09-12-13 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 44 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show | |
NY Jets v New England
One of our favorite early week trends takes place when the Jets and Patriots tangle on Thursday. When the home team is favored on Thursdays the game has gone under 51 of 81 occurrences. It's even better when the home team is a big favorite. It makes a great deal of sense to us as the teams have less time to put in a game plan on the short week, even more of a hinderance to the road team who must travel. In fact, Tom Brady said that they wouldn't be spending a great deal of time game planning offensively because of the short turnaround. These two teams know each other very well and with the projected inefficiencies of the Jets offense along with a battered and bruised New England scoring unit, we can see this game staying under the posted total. New England's offense isn't the same this year with a questionable receiving corps, and now three key skill position players will likely miss this game. We expect this line to continue to drop so lock in the current number as soon as possible. PLAY UNDER |
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09-09-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 8 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
CHICAGO CUBS @ CINCINNATI
Travis Wood will take the hill for the Cubs against his former team, who will send Bronson Arroyo to the mound as the two NL Central foes open up a series in the Queen City. Wood is 0-4 in six starts against the Reds, but both his ERA and record are misleading. Wood has held the Reds to a .232 ERA and has posted a 1.08 WHIP in those six starts. Four of those starts have come this season and Wood is 0-3, but with a respectable 3.67 ERA and a .204 batting average against. The Reds rank in the middle of the pack this season against lefties, but Wood has had some success pitching to them this season. Bronson Arroyo has had a lot of success against the Cubs over the last four seasons. Since the start of the 2010 season, Arroyo has a 2.71 ERA against the Cubs and is 6-3 in that span. Current Cubs are batting .189 with a .497 OPS against the crafty veteran and we expect more of the same in this start. Arroyo is 9-3 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season and he should have no issues pitching with the pressure of a playoff race on his shoulders. Reds pitchers are allowing just 3.7 runs per game at home, while the Cubs are scoring just 3.5 runs per game away from home this season. PLAY: CHC/CIN UNDER |
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09-07-13 | Florida v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 48 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
306 Florida v Miami Fl Under
The last 10 times the Gators faced a quality opponent 7 times the game ended with less points than the current total of this contest. The Florida offense returns 6 starters from a team that only scored 26.5 ppg a year ago. QB Driskel plays pretty well in this system but he's not known as a player who can beat you with his talent. The defense for the Gators is the reason for this play. Florida allowed 14.5 ppg a year ago and despite just 4 returning starters we look for another big season from this stop unit. Florida held down a very good offense vs Toledo last week which is hard to do regardless of who the Rockets play. Toledo had gone 36 straight games without being held to single digits and they managed just 6 against the Gators last week. Miami brings back a whopping 18 starters this year and many feel this will be the breakout year for Al Golden. While we do believe the defense will be much improved we still have serious concerns about this offense, especially when taking on quality stop units. We are not a believer in QB Stephen Morris who only managed to complete 58.2% of his passes last year. When stepping up against good defenses last season the Hurricanes were held to 13 against Kansas State, 3 vs Notre Dame and 14 against North Carolina, while they managed 20 vs Florida State. Despite the high number of returning starters on offense we don't see that trend changing. PLAY UNDER |
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08-31-13 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
SAN DIEGO @ LA DODGERS
Andrew Cashner and Chris Capuano will square off on Saturday night at Chavez Ravine as the Padres and the Dodgers continue their weekend set. Cashner has had a good season, but we look for him to start slowing down as his innings workload builds. Cashner has now thrown 144.1 innings on the season, blowing away his previous season-high of 111.1 in 2010. Of interest to us is that Cashner has struggled to throw pitches in the strike zone over his last two starts, a possible sign of fatigue. He was fortunate that the Cubs and the Pirates chased a lot, but the Dodgers are much more familiar with Cashner and will have a better idea of his pitches. Dodger Stadium is still a pretty good pitcher's park, but Cashner does have a 4.93 ERA on the road this season in 73 innings. That's worth considering here. Chris Capuano has not been good for the Dodgers of late. Over his last four starts covering 19.1 innings, Capuano has allowed 16 runs on 32 hits. Two of Capuano's worst starts in terms of throwing pitches in the zone have been in that span. For as much as the Padres offense has struggled, they rank 8th in OPS against left handed pitchers. By wRC+, which is runs created adjusted for park factor, the Padres are actually the sixth-best offense against left handed pitching. Capuano has been struggling and the Dodgers do have some questions in middle relief if they're forced into the bullpen early. PLAY: SD/LAD OVER |
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08-28-13 | Houston Astros v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
HOUSTON @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Two very talented starters will square off in the Windy City when Jarred Cosart takes on Chris Sale. Cosart has thrown quality starts in six of his seven starts this season, with two runs allowed on seven hits over five innings against Boston serving as Cosart's lone non-quality start. The White Sox entered play on Tuesday averaging just 3.78 runs per game. Cosart should be able to have success with the White Sox in his first career start against them and will be pitching on a couple extra days of rest, which should benefit the youngster. Chris Sale has put up video game numbers against the Astros in his two career starts against them, throwing 16 innings and allowing two unearned runs with a 21/1 K/BB ratio. The Astros strike out in nearly 26 percent of their at bats, so Sale should rack up the K's in this start. Sale has a 4.89 K/BB ratio this season, so he makes the opposition earn every baserunner and the Astros are not one of the game's better offenses. PLAY: HOU/CWS UNDER |
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08-25-13 | Atlanta Braves v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS
Mike Minor and Lance Lynn face off in a great pitching matchup on Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium. Facing the Cardinals, Minor draws the team with the sixth-lowest batting average against left handed pitching and the seventh-lowest OPS. The Cardinals have the fourth-lowest walk rate against lefties, which is significant because opposing batters are hitting just .231 off Minor this season. Minor has been tremendous this season, with a spike in strikeouts, a drop in walks, and a sizable drop in home runs allowed. As a result, Minor has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.14 FIP. He's been terrific this season and there's no reason to expect anything different on Sunday. Lance Lynn enters this start in line for a little bit of luck. He has a 3.97 ERA but a 3.19 FIP. His batting average allowed is .237, but his BABIP against is .303. Balls just haven't been hit at his fielders often enough. Lynn has done a much better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark this season and that should help him against a Braves team that ranks third in home runs against right handed pitching this season. This is a great pitching matchup that we expect to live up to its expectations. PLAY: ATL/STL UNDER |
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08-20-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's UNDER 8.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND
Lefty Joe Saunders will take the mound for the Mariners against one of the A's promising young arms, Sonny Gray. Saunders has had a lot of career success in Oakland, posting a 2.94 ERA over 10 starts covering 64.1 innings of work. Over the last two seasons, Saunders has allowed just 10 earned runs in 29.1 innings of work against the A's. Saunders has allowed six runs in 17.1 innings so far against Oakland this season. The A's are struggling a bit offensively, scoring just slightly over four runs per game since the All-Star Break and they were struggling again on Monday night. Saunders is a pitch-to-contact guy and the A's entering Monday batting just .244 as a team. If they don't walk, they have trouble scoring. Sonny Gray has come as advertised for the A's in his first two starts. He has a 14/4 K/BB ratio and has allowed just two earned runs. Gray has a plus fastball and a plus curveball, which the Mariners hitters have not seen much of, facing only Triple-A Tacoma one time in the minors. Gray gets ahead of hitters and has the ability to throw it past them inside the zone, which is a big asset to a young pitcher. He should continue to have success in a pitcher's park like Oakland and should baffle the Mariners during his first start against them. PLAY: SEA/OAK UNDER Another victory last night as we have been on quite a roll the past 16+ weeks of action. During that time we have made our clients over 46 units of profit with just 1-2 plays per day. YOU SIMPLY CAN'T GET MORE CONSISTENT OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. Tuesday we return with another DIAMOND GEM WINNER, one of the staples of our success. Don't Miss It! |
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08-12-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 106 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
CLEVELAND @ MINNESOTA
Danny Salazar and Andrew Albers, two pitchers who have nothing more in common than having Tommy John surgery in the past, will face off as the Indians and Twins open a three-game series at Target Field. Salazar has been very impressive in 13.2 innings at the Major League level this season with 17 K against just two walks. Salazar sits in the upper 90s with a wipeout changeup that really baffles hitters. The first two times through the lineup, opposing hitters are 4-for-34 against Salazar, which is a testament to how dominant he can be as he goes through the league for the first time. He dominated Triple-A with a 2.73 ERA and a 5.57 K/BB ratio, despite pitching in one of the best hitter's parks in minor league baseball in Columbus. This kid is the real deal. Also helping Salazar is that the Twins have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball and Salazar can rack them up in bunches. While Andrew Albers doesn't touch triple digits by any means, the crafty southpaw was impressive in his first start and is a very difficult matchup for the Indians. Albers sits in the mid-to-high 80s with his fastball and has the standard four-pitch mix, but he throws a lot of strikes and that's important against an Indians lineup that uses the walk to generate offense. Albers struck out 116 and walked just 32 in 132.1 innings with Triple-A Rochester this season and issued just one walk over 8.1 innings against the Royals. Nearly 66 percent of balls in play against Albers were ground balls in his first start, so there's a little bit of sinking action to his fastball. The Indians have struggled this season with pitchers they are seeing for the first time and have had a lot of trouble with soft tossers. With both lineups facing pitchers that they have never faced before, it's hard to see a lot of runs over the first several innings and both bullpens have had success against each other this season. PLAY: CLE/MIN UNDER |
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08-04-13 | New York Yankees v. San Diego Padres UNDER 7.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
SAN DIEGO v NY YANKEES
Ian Kennedy makes his Padres debut against one of his former teams when the Padres and Yankees wrap up a weekend set at Petco. The Yankees will counter with Phil Hughes. Many baseball people believe that Kennedy will have a lot more success in the more pitcher-friendly environment at Petco Park. While that's largely theoretical, Kennedy does have a 3-1 record and a 2.27 ERA in six career starts at Petco. Kennedy is a flyball pitcher and guys like that do struggle at Chase Field, so a change of scenery could definitely benefit Kennedy. Some people have also mentioned that Kennedy and Diamondbacks Manager Kirk Gibson didn't see eye-to-eye, so that distraction is now behind Kennedy. Entering play on Saturday, the Yankees had the fourth-worst OPS against right handed pitchers this season. After the game, they travel back to Chicago to start a three-game set there on Monday night as the final leg of a three-city, eight-game road trip. While Phil Hughes's overall numbers haven't been pretty, he has been a quality pitcher on the road, posting a 3.02 ERA in nine starts. Fourten of his 20 HR allowed have come in his 58 innings at Yankee Stadium this season. At some point, Hughes has to start having more success because his first-strike percentage ranks among the league's best at over 70% and pitchers should have an advantage over hitters by getting ahead in the count. With Hughes, who the Padres have never seen, that should be an advantage on Sunday. He is holding opposing batters to a sub-.300 OBP on the road. PLAY: SD/NYY UNDER |
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07-26-13 | Texas: M Perez v. Cleveland: C Kluber UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
TEXAS @ CLEVELAND
Martin Perez makes his first career start against the Indians, who will counter with Corey Kluber, as the two teams open up a weekend series in Cleveland. Perez is a promising arm for the Rangers, a 22-year-old lefty getting an extended look as a starter this season. One of the angles we like to play is the unfamiliar lefty, but instead of taking the Rangers, we're looking at the total in this game. Perez has only walked 6% of the batters he has faced this season and the key to the Indians' approach is patience. Perez is around the strike zone a lot and has induced a lot of ground balls so far. It will take the Indians a couple of times through the lineup to get acclimated to Perez. Not to mention, except for scoring 17 runs in two games on this latest road trip to Minnesota and Seattle, the Indians managed just eight runs in the other four games, and they avoided Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma. The Indians offense is very inconsistent right now and facing an unfamiliar pitcher won't help. Corey Kluber has been excellent at home this season, posting a 2.53 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, a .242 batting average against and a K/BB ratio of nearly 4/1. Kluber has the ninth-best xFIP in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 100 IP. The Rangers come to Cleveland having lost nine of 12, batting .165 with runners in scoring position over that span. Kluber is truly blossoming into one of the American League's most underrated starting pitchers and we expect him to have another good outing on Friday. Neither offense is performing with much consistency of late and this is a pretty good pitching matchup. PLAY: TEX/CLE UNDER |
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07-23-13 | Miami Marlins v. Colorado Rockies UNDER 9 | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
MIAMI @ COLORADO
Jose Fernandez ended the first half on a very high note, posting a 1.72 ERA over his last eight starts. He'll get the ball for the first time in the second half against Jhoulys Chacin and the Rockies. Fernandez has been the brightest spot of the season for the atrocious Marlins, who are averaging just 3.19 runs per game and had 47 runs in 16 games this month entering Monday's opener with Colorado. But Fernandez is still 5-5 on the season, despite getting just 3.07 runs of support on average this season. That tells you just how well he has pitched. Despite a road ERA above 4, Fernandez has actually gotten unlucky on the road. His road WHIP is just 1.21 and opponents are batting just .215. His FIP on the road is more than 0.6 runs lower than his ERA, so we would expect his road ERA to normalize very soon, since his advanced metrics are better indicators of how he's pitching. Jhoulys Chacin is quietly putting together a very good season for the Rockies. He entered the break at 9-4 with a 3.50 ERA. He, like Fernandez, entered the break on a high note, posting a 1.94 ERA over his final seven starts. The Marlins have not faced Chacin since 2011. Chacin has made a concerted effort to pitch down in the zone and induce more ground balls. It's clearly helped him and should continue to help against a very bad Marlins lineup. PLAY: MIA/COL UNDER |
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07-13-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Oakland A's OVER 8 | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
BOSTON @ OAKLAND
Jon Lester was supposed to have a bounceback year, but his last 10 starts have seemingly crushed any chance of that happening. In 10 starts, spanning from May 20 to July 8, Lester has given up 43 runs in 59.67 innings for a 6.49 ERA. He has struck out 49 and walked 27 in that time. The lone great outing in that span for Lester came against the Padres, a team that was not familiar with him. A look at Lester's game-by-game log shows a pitcher that has had a lot of trouble throwing strikes consistently and that's never a good thing against a patient A's lineup that has posted the league's third-lowest chase rate and highest walk percentage. When Lester has been in the zone, he has allowed 14 home runs and opposing hitters are slugging .418 against him. AJ Griffin throws a lot of strikes and the Boston Red Sox have done a lot of hitting of late. The Red Sox are scoring nearly six runs per game so far in July and well over five runs per game this season. Not only are the Red Sox having success offensively at hitter-friendly Fenway Park, but they've actually averaged more runs per game on the road. Griffin has a 3.93 ERA at home, despite being a fly ball pitcher who should have more success at O.co Coliseum. He gives up runs in bunches, with eight starts allowing four or more. That's the kind of start we're expecting from Griffin on Saturday. PLAY: BOS/OAK OVER |
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07-09-13 | New York Mets v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5 | 10-6 | Loss | -111 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
NY METS @ SAN FRANCISCO
The Mets offense is awful against left handed pitching and the Giants offense has been awful against everybody of late. Entering Monday night, the Mets ranked 26th in batting average, 26th in OPS, and 26th in wOBA against left handed pitching. That won't help them when they face Barry Zito at AT&T Park on Tuesday night. Zito has been an embarrassment on the road, but in the pitcher-friendly conditions of his home park, Zito has been dynamite. He is 4-1 in 10 starts with a 1.98 ERA. Current Mets are 17-for-73 against Zito. The Giants had managed 33 runs over their last 16 games entering play on Monday. Dillon Gee has given up two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Gee's problem has been the home run, especially on the road, where 11 of his 14 gopher balls have come, but AT&T Park is not a good home run hitter's park, so Gee should be able to avoid that problem for the most part. Gee has a very good 3.23 K/BB ratio and has actually gotten a bit unlucky on balls in play with a .334 BABIP. Given the performances of everybody involved, it would appear that scoring runs will be a struggle on Tuesday night. PLAY: NYM/SF UNDER |
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07-07-13 | San Diego Padres v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 7-11 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
SAN DIEGO @ WASHINGTON
Rookie southpaw Robbie Erlin will take the ball for the Padres against Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals. Erlin doesn't hurt himself with the walk, a problem for a lot of young pitchers, and isn't afraid to pitch to contact. Both things should help him against a Nationals lineup that is dead last in batting average, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against left handers this season. We also have the unfamiliar lefty angle that tends to give pitchers like Erlin a lot of success against lineups that have never faced a given left hander. Stephen Strasburg continues to be a quality pitcher and has allowed just four runs over his last 26 innings of work since returning from a short DL stint. At home this season, Strasburg is just 3-3 because of bad run support. He has a 1.17 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a .197 batting average against at Nationals Park. Nationals Park ranks in the middle of the pack for park factor in runs scored, but really suppresses home runs, something that should benefit Strasburg's opponent, Robbie Erlin. Eleven of Strasburg's 16 starts have been quality starts, with one shortened due to injury. Expect another good effort from him against a mediocre Padres offense and expect the Nats to continue struggling against lefties. PLAY: SD/WSH UNDER |
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07-06-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
LA DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO
Stephen Fife and Madison Bumgarner should be excited about their starts on Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. In six June starts, Fife posted a 2.20 ERA. He's pitched well in two starts in his career against the Giants, including a quality start on June 25. The Giants have lost 14 of their last 18 and have averaged 3.1 runs per game since the start of June entering play on Friday. This is an offense that is struggling terribly and isn't showing many signs of snapping out of it. Luckily for the Giants, their ace, Madison Bumgarner, will oppose Fife. While the Giants struggled in June, Bumgarner bounced back from a rough May to post a 3.00 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and a .182 batting average against. In his career against the Dodgers, Bumgarner is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA against the Dodgers. Bumgarner has averaged just three runs of support per start this season, so this is a guy who is used to pitching in tight, low scoring games like what we expect on Saturday. PLAY: LAD/SF UNDER |
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06-28-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
CHICAGO CUBS @ SEATTLE
Travis Wood and Hisashi Iwakuma will be facing their opponent on Friday night for the first time and that should make things very difficult for the hitters. Wood also has the advantage of being an unfamiliar lefty. This is a park perfectly tailored to his pitching style, a guy that allows a good amount of contact and has an above average fly ball rate. The Mariners are managing just 3.38 runs per game in the month of June, so this is a team that is struggling offensively. This is a very good matchup for Wood and we expect another strong start from him. Hisashi Iwakuma can be downright baffling for hitters that haven't seen him before. Not one player on the Cubs active roster has faced Iwakuma. Iwakuma is putting up video game numbers at home this season. In eight starts, he's 3-1 with a 1.46 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and a .164 batting average against. The Cubs were managing 3.7 runs per game this month before getting seven on Thursday in a getaway day game. They'll face a much stiffer test in Iwakuma than they saw on Thursday. Both pitchers should work deep into the game at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field and there will be a lot of uncertainty the first couple of times through the lineup against guys that the hitters have never seen. PLAY: CHC/SEA UNDER |
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06-28-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Oakland A's UNDER 7.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
ST. LOUIS @ OAKLAND
The Oakland Athletics will get their first look at Shelby Miller and they'll send Bartolo Colon to the mound against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Athletics are a team that relies on the walk to generate offense because they don't have many high average hitters. Miller has allowed just 20 walks in 92 innings of work this season. Miller throws a lot of strikes and has excellent stuff, which should benefit him against a lineup that has never seen him before. Bartolo Colon also throws a lot of strikes and has had a lot of success at home this season. In seven starts, Colon is 4-0 with a 2.68 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Colon hasn't faced the Cardinals in a while, so there will be a lot of Cardinals hitters unfamiliar with him. Colon has thrown eight consecutive quality starts and 12 total on the season. This is a guy who gets outs, throws strikes, and keeps his team in the game. PLAY: STL/OAK UNDER |
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06-26-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE
Scott Kazmir and Jason Hammel meet in the third game of a four-game set between the Indians and the Orioles. It may not be a fun outing for either guy. Kazmir could have a very rocky outing. The southpaw has given up 13 home runs in 62 innings and seven in 30.1 road innings this season. Camden Yards is a great hitter's park and has seen the second-most home runs in the American League this season. Mistakes get hit a long way in that ballpark and Kazmir has been leaving both fastballs and sliders up in the zone in some of his starts. When you consider Kazmir's K rate and swinging strike rate and then look at how he has given up 73 hits in 62 innings, it's clear that when Kazmir is bad, he's bad and that his mistakes get hit hard. The Orioles have a talented, patient lineup and Kazmir's HR/FB% and LD% are really concerning entering this start. Jason Hammel is going the wrong way in a lot of stats. His K rate has dropped by nearly six percent and his HR rate has more than doubled, along with an increase in line drive rate and a drop in velocity. With fewer swings and misses and more contact, Hammel has posted a 5.30 ERA and his FIP isn't much better at 5.10. In six home starts, Hammel has a 7.09 ERA and has allowed 54 baserunners in 39 innings. In three of Hammel's last four starts, he has thrown less than 40% of his pitches in the strike zone. That could signal a nagging injury or some sort of mechanical problem and those are always bad signs for a pitcher. Both lineups have favorable matchups here against guys who serve up home runs in a ballpark where a lot of home runs get hit. This could be a shootout, with both lineups knowing that they need to score a lot of runs to have a chance to win. PLAY: CLE/BAL OVER |
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06-19-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
COLORADO @ TORONTO
We're finally starting to see the Blue Jays offense doing what it was expected to do, scoring over five runs per game in June. Juan Nicasio has seen a spike in his ground ball rate but his BABIP against is nearly 40 points below his career average. What better place for a BABIP to regulate for a ground ball pitcher than in a dome. Nicasio's strikeout rate has dropped and more balls in play is never a good thing. The Blue Jays have scored 76 runs in 15 games and are now averaging 4.9 runs per game at Rogers Centre. Nicasio has a 4.86 ERA on the road this season, which is exactly the same as his home ERA. That's usually not the case for guys who pitch in Coors, so that tells you something about how Nicasio has pitched this season. Mark Buehrle has averaged 1.32 baserunners per inning this season and the Rockies are the kind of offense that can make him pay for it. Their overall numbers are a little inflated with Coors Field, but they are still averaging 4.25 runs per game on the road and will have an extra hitter in the lineup thanks to American League rules. The Rockies have the eighth-highest OPS in baseball against lefties at .742. Buehrle has allowed 1.39 HR/9 at home this season and just a .261 BABIP. His strand rate is over 79%. Home runs don't count towards BABIP, but there's should be a little bit of regression in that number in the near future. We'll look for it to happen against a talented Rockies lineup. PLAY: COL/TOR OVER |
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06-18-13 | New York Mets G2 v. Atlanta Braves G2 UNDER 7.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
ATLANTA v. NY METS
The Atlanta Braves will get the league's first crack at Mets top prospect Zack Wheeler. It may be Paul Maholm that steals the show. Maholm is 4-1 with a 1.64 ERA in five home starts this year and is 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA overall. The Mets have the league's fourth-worst offense against left handed pitching with a .283 wOBA and a .641 OPS. Pending Monday night's result, the Mets have lost nine out of 12 in June and have scored just 3.3 runs per game since the start of May. Maholm is 6-3 with a 3.58 ERA in his career against the Mets and has thrown 21.1 consecutive scoreless innings against the Mets. The Braves are 23-8 at home this season and are outscoring teams by an average of almost two runs per game. Zack Wheeler comes to the Major Leagues with a lot of fanfare. Wheeler has tremendous stuff and has struck out 9.7 batters per nine innings. Only the Astros strike out more than the Braves. Wheeler throws in the mid-to-upper 90s and features a wipeout curve ball with 15+ mph of separation from his fastball. He also throws an above average slider and a changeup that is a work in progress, and probably a "show" pitch to lefties to keep them off balance. It's going to take the Braves some time to adjust to Wheeler and by that time, he should have shaken off the first start jitters and be throwing free and easy. We love this kid's potential and we'll look for spots to back him, but the Mets don't look like they're going to give him a lot of run support today, so we'll play the under instead. PLAY: ATL/NYM UNDER |
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06-17-13 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
CHICAGO CUBS @ ST. LOUIS
Travis Wood and Shelby Miller square off in the series opener at Busch Stadium when the Cubs and Cardinals renew their storied rivalry. Wood is holding opposing batters to a .191 average this season, something that should benefit him when he takes on a Cardinals lineup that is hitting just .233 against left handed pitching. Wood continues to do a great job of keeping hitters off balance and changing speeds. He pitched well against the Cardinals in May, striking out a season-high eight batters over 6.2 innings of work. He has thrown quality starts in 12 of his 13 outings this season. Even if he gets nicked for a few runs, he doesn't really get shelled and is able to keep his team in the game. The Cubs will get their first look at Shelby Miller as a starter. He is in the driver's seat for National League Rookie of the Year right now with some really impressive numbers. Miller is striking out nearly 29% of the batters he has faced and has a 2.21 ERA with a 2.52 WHIP. Along with 91 strikeouts in 81.1 innings, Miller has only allowed 79 baserunners. He's in command of the game and throws a lot of strikes. The Cubs have averaged just 3.1 runs per game over the last 10 meetings between these teams and the last eight matchups have come at Wrigley Field. Busch Stadium is a pretty decent pitcher's park and Miller should be able to throw another quality outing. PLAY: CHC/STL UNDER |
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06-14-13 | Boston: R Dempster v. Baltimore: C Tillman OVER 9 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -127 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
BOSTON @ BALTIMORE
Ryan Dempster takes his horrible home run rate to a place where the ball loves to carry when he and the Red Sox continue their weekend four-game series with the Orioles. Dempster has allowed 14 home runs over 75.2 innings of work this season, which is a bad thing when your WHIP is 1.33. He has allowed two home runs in just three road starts, but he still managed to get battered in his lone road start at Target Field, a park that suppresses home runs because of a high wall in right field. Because of a velocity drop and pitching behind in the count, Dempster has been getting the ball up in the zone and that's never a good thing at Camden Yards. The Orioles are averaging nearly 4.7 runs per game at home. Chris Tillman is in line for regression. His ERA is a pretty solid 3.89, but his FIP is 5.15. Like Dempster, Tillman is serving up gopher balls at an alarming rate, with 16 HR allowed in 76.1 innings of work. At Camden Yards this season, Tillman has a 5.31 ERA and has allowed 12 HR in 39 innings. Tillman is stranding 85.1% of his baserunners, a trend that would be unlikely to continue against a good offense like the Red Sox. Fly ball pitchers like Tillman don't fare well in hitter's parks. Orioles pitchers are allowing nearly five runs per game at home this season. Two teams that like to hit home runs against two pitchers that like to give them up looks like a pretty good recipe for a high scoring game. PLAY: BOS/BAL OVER |
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06-05-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7.5 | 8-6 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
CHICAGO CUBS @ LA ANGELS
With a 4:05 p.m. start time, the shadows should come into play in the early evening hours in Anaheim during Wednesday's game between the Cubs and the Angels. Last season, day games at Angel Stadium went under in 12 out of 20 games with the average number of runs per game at 7.35. To top it off, it will be a getaway day game for both teams as the Cubs head home to host Pittsburgh and the Angels make the cross-country flight out to Boston for a weekend set. The pitching matchup also lends itself well to the under. Matt Garza takes the hill for the Cubs and he should continue to get better with each start. Garza is striking out one batter per inning and fixed some of his command issues in his last start against Arizona, throwing over 48% of his pitches for strikes. Starters average around 45% for the season, so Garza was definitely on the right track there. Righties are just 3-for-31 against Garza since his return from the DL and the Angels' most productive bats hit right handed. Jason Vargas has been terrific at home this season, going 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA. The Cubs are one of the least-disciplined teams in baseball against southpaws and if there's any knock on Vargas, it has been his command. Overall, the Cubs don't walk much, so Vargas should be able to have success against their lineup. The Cubs have the league's worst OPS on the road at .619, so this is a team that really benefits from Wrigley Field and struggles away from it. It's a pretty good pitching matchup, but the shadows and a getaway day should have a lot of impact on Wednesday's game. PLAY: CHC/LAA UNDER |
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06-03-13 | OAK ATHLETICS v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 9 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
OAKLAND @ MILWAUKEE
Tommy Milone and Marco Estrada will square off in Monday's interleague contest between the Athletics and Brewers. Milone has been terrible on the road for the second straight season, posting a 5.55 ERA over six starts this season and a 4.83 ERA in 16 road starts last season. As a fly ball pitcher, Milone has really struggled away from Oakland's pitcher-friendly conditions with the marine air and the expansive foul territory. Milone has allowed 11 home runs this season, including two in each of his last two starts, which bodes well for the Brewers who are slugging .440 at home. The Brewers entered Sunday's action with the fifth-best OPS against left handed pitching this season. Marco Estrada draws a tough assignment in the A's, who have scored 271 runs in 58 games this season. The A's work pitchers deep into the count, which could be a big problem for Estrada, who is averaging nearly 17 pitches per inning this season. The Brewers bullpen has been very inconsistent this season and they could be going to it early if Estrada's pitch count goes up in the early innings. The Athletics have hit 34 of their 53 home runs in their 30 away games, another red flag for Estrada who has already allowed 12 long balls in 65.1 innings of work. The Athletics are one of the best over bets in the league at 34-24 to the over, while the Brewers are another solid over play at 32-23. Miller Park is the fourth-best park for run scoring and the best park for hitting home runs according to ESPN's Park Factor stats. PLAY: OAK/MIL OVER |
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06-02-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 9 | 11-3 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
TAMPA BAY @ CLEVELAND
Jeremy Hellickson and Zach McAllister will finish off a long three-game series in Cleveland on Sunday. After playing until 3 a.m. local time on Saturday morning and having a quick turnaround to play on a sultry Saturday afternoon, the Rays are looking forward to Monday's off day with a short trip to Detroit and the Indians will head to New York City to take on the Yankees. Hellickson is the kind of pitcher that has given the Indians fits this season. He sits between 88-91 with his fastball, throws a lot of offspeed stuff, and has a terrific changeup. While most looked at Hellickson as a regression candidate for the last two seasons, he's not as bad as he has been this season. In fact, with an increased K%, decreased BB%, and the lowest line drive rate of his career, his SIERA is LOWER than his last two quality seasons. He doesn't issue many walks and throws a lot of strikes, which are two things that hurt the Indians lineup. Zach McAllister has turned into one of the most underrated starters in the American League. All 10 of McAllister's starts this season have been 5+ IP and 3 or fewer earned runs allowed. Like Hellickson, McAllister throws a lot of strikes and has become more of a pitch-to-contact pitcher this season. The Rays are not a high average team and they rely on being disciplined and waiting for mistakes. McAllister hasn't made many of them, averaging just one home run against per nine innings. Both bullpens will have all hands on deck and one of these two teams has been shut out in four of the five games in the season series to date. PLAY: TB/CLE UNDER |
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05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5 | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Miami at Indiana
The closing totals in the first three games of this series were 181 1/2, 182 1/2 and 182. The first game produced 205 points in overtime, game two was 190 and game three 210. Now that the first three have surpassed the total, the posted total as of this writing is 184 1/2. We all know why the zigzag theory has worked so well in the NBA playoffs, going against what you have seen last has been the way to go. With the first three games being high scoring we expect defense to rule the game tonight. Keep in mind that these are two of the strongest defensive teams in the league. Both teams have produced equal or better shooting numbers in this series than in the regular season. Both teams are scoring more in this series than the regular season. How can that possibly be when these are two elite defenses. After Indiana permitted a whopping 114 points last time out the only way they stay competitive here is on the defensive end of the court. The Pacers just don't have the offensive firepower to get into a scoring contest with the Heat. In the games Indiana has played well against Miami this season it has been in lower scoring contests. With the Pacers in a must win situation we look for a huge defensive contest from the host. PLAY UNDER |
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05-27-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 9 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI
Coming off the heels of a frustrating loss to the Red Sox, in which closer Chris Perez left with an injury, the Indians head to Cincinnati to play the first of four straight against the Reds. Ubaldo Jimenez will take on Mike Leake in a pitching matchup that could see a lot of runs. Jimenez reverted back to the pitcher we all know him as in his last start against the Tigers and the Reds are no picnic either. Jimenez has allowed 32 home runs over the last two seasons and pitching during the day at Great American Small Park in Cincinnati will not do him any favors. Jimenez has thrown a lot of pitches over the middle of the plate this season and a power-heavy Reds lineup will take advantage. Jimenez has struggled to work deep into games and the Indians will be without Chris Perez and are very reluctant to use setup man Vinnie Pestano, who is dealing with an elbow injury. That leaves the Indians minus their two best relievers and the bullpen is not very deep beyond them. Mike Leake sports a career ERA of 4.53 at Great American Ball Park. A lower than normal home run rate and a LOB% well above league average is helping Leake this season. Leake has not faced very many good lineups this season and the Indians have one of the best and most productive lineups in baseball. If the Indians have one flaw, it's that they swing and miss a lot, but very few people are swinging and missing against Leake. Opposing hitters have made contact with over 90% of the pitches in the strike zone that they have swung at and he has an unsustainably low line drive rate based on how much contact hitters are making. This game has all the makings of a slugfest, especially during the day in Cincinnati, where the ball carries well. PLAY: CLE/CIN OVER |
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05-20-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 | 8-10 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
SEATTLE @ CLEVELAND
Hisashi Iwakuma and Scott Kazmir each draw favorable matchups on a Monday getaway day in Cleveland. Iwakuma faces a talented Indians lineup, but one that has struggled against pitchers that they never seen before and guys who sit around 89-90 with a sinker/slider repertoire. The Indians managed just one run off of David Phelps last week against the Yankees and two runs off of Jonathan Pettibone the following day in Philly. Both of these guys have similar arsenals to Iwakuma, but they aren't as good. Mike Pelfrey throws harder than Phelps, Pettibone, and Iwakuma, but his mix of two-seamers and sliders kept the Indians off balance on May 5. With a two-game series against the Tigers looming, and a series win already secured, the Indians may take some quick swings against Iwakuma, who throws a lot of strikes and has been terrific so far this season. Scott Kazmir draws a lefty-heavy Mariners lineup that had the sixth-highest swing and miss rate before Justin Masterson struck out 11 Mariners on Sunday afternoon. It's a small sample size, but lefties are 6-for-25 with 8 K and 1 BB against Kazmir this season. His slider is a very effective pitch against lefties and he has shown good velocity on fastballs up in the zone, two things the Mariners hitters struggle with. The current Mariners really haven't seen the rebuilt Scott Kazmir, so we can expect that it will take them a few times through the lineup to get acquainted with his stuff. The Mariners have a cross-country flight back to Anaheim following the game and the way this series has gone, they're likely to do what they can to get out of town as quickly as possible. Both teams have good bullpens and getaway day game unders are historically a very good bet. PLAY: SEA/CLE UNDER |
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05-18-13 | New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 178.5 | 99-106 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
New York at Indiana
The Pacers are at their best defending the three and forcing opponents inside against the defense and Hibbard. It's worked perfectly in this series and we see no reason for anything to change. New York has really struggled to shoot from the outside especially at Indiana. The later a series goes the lower scoring are the games. New York won last time out but the game was still a low scoring affair. With the Pacers playing at home and dictating the tempo we will look for another low scoring contest. PLAY UNDER |
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05-14-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Chicago Cubs OVER 10 | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
COLORADO @ CHICAGO CUBS
Jeff Francis and Carlos Villanueva are going to have some difficult conditions to deal with tonight at Wrigley Field. Gametime temps are going to be in the low 80s and winds will be blowing out to right center at 20-25 mph. Francis has not pitched a quality start since April 5, his first start of the season. Since then, Francis has allowed 27 runs, 22 earned, in 24 innings of work for an 8.25 ERA, including five home runs and 47 baserunners. Wrigley Field hasn't been kind to Francis in his four career starts there with an 8.44 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .348 batting average against. That's obviously a small sample size, but the right conditions at Wrigley can make a lot of pitchers have that kind of line, and that's what we'll see on Tuesday night. Carlos Villanueva has started to show signs of regression and those signs may reach a crescendo with the winds blowing out at Wrigley on Tuesday. So far this season, Villanueva has been fortunate with the conditions at home. After posting a 1.53 ERA over his first four starts, he has come back to earth and posted a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts. The Rockies are a very good lineup that has posted the fifth-highest wRC+ in the league on the road. Villanueva's batting average against is 37 points lower than his career average and his BABIP is 47 points lower than his career average. The league change partially explains some of the improvement with the pitcher hitting, but he's also gotten lucky this season, especially since he's inducing more ground balls. It's time for those to find some holes and any mistakes he makes have the chance to leave the ballpark. Wrigley Field is already the best park for runs and doubles according to ESPN's Park Factor stats. Add in a warm day and winds blowing out to right field and it could be very fun night to be a hitter at Wrigley on Tuesday. PLAY: COL/CHC OVER |
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05-13-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 184.5 | 97-103 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City at Memphis
It's looking mighty bleak for the Thunder who won the rebounding battle 51-44 and outscored the Grizzlies in the paint 44-30 along with holding a 23-7 scoring edge in transition in game three. Despite all that they only managed 81 points against this tough Memphis defense. Oklahoma City was able to push the pace a bit at home even without Westbrook but that's not the case in Memphis. The Grizzlies want to muck up the game and beat the Thunder with physical defensive play, something they have been able to accomplish on a regular basis at home this year. The Grizzlies have won 18 of 19 in this building. Oklahoma City needs this game desperately and the only way to have success here is on the defensive end. We expect this game to be much like the last contest with every basket being challenged. PLAY UNDER |
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05-09-13 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA
Cole Hamels and Patrick Corbin should feel very comfortable taking the hill on Thursday night. The Diamondbacks have the 22nd ranked offense by OPS against lefties and the Phillies check in at 23rd in that category. By the sabermetric stat wRC+, which is weighted runs created adjusted for park factor, the Diamondbacks are ranked 27th against lefties, while the Phillies are 22nd. Both Hamels and Corbin are pitching well of late, with Hamels stringing together five straight quality starts allowing just eight runs over 35 innings. Corbin has allowed just eight runs this season in 40 innings. Hamels is 4-1 with a 3.47 in seven starts against the D-Backs, while Corbin has never faced the Phillies. Lefties tend to have an advantage facing a team for the first time. This total gets extra value from the game being played in a hitter's park like Chase Field. But, both pitchers are averaging above seven strikeouts per nine innings and the two opposing offenses are terrible against lefties. Look for a very tight game with a lot of strikes and two pitchers who work deep into the game with a lot of success. PLAY: PHI/ARI UNDER |
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05-03-13 | Washington Nationals v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
WASHINGTON @ PITTSBURGH
Ross Detwiler and AJ Burnett will face off in the opening game of a three-game set at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Detwiler gets a good draw here as the Pirates are one of the worst teams in the league against left handed pitchers. The Pirates are batting just .215 against southpaws, which ranked 27th entering Thursday night. Their OPS of .603 ranks 28th. In 255 plate appearances against a lefty, Pirates hitters have reached base just 69 times. Detwiler's ERA is quite good at 2.03, but there could be room for improvement. His BABip against is .330, which is well above what constitutes league average and is much higher than the .286 BABip he has for his career. Detwiler doesn't allow home runs and doesn't allow walks, which will make it hard for a low average team like the Pirates to score. On the other side, AJ Burnett loves pitching at PNC Park. In 23 career starts spanning 148 innings, Burnett has a 2.98 ERA. He has been fantastic this season with 48 strikeouts against just 14 walks and a 2.83 ERA. The Nationals have scored three runs or less in 18 of their 29 games. They also pitch well, holding the opposition to three runs or less in 16 of their 29 games. The Nationals have scored 10 runs in their last five games. PNC Park is also a factor here. According to ESPN Park Factor stats, PNC Park is the third most difficult park to homer in so far this season and eighth most difficult for scoring runs. Another good element for the under is that both teams have very talented bullpens. Expect a close, low scoring game on Friday night in Pittsburgh. PLAY: WAS/PIT UNDER |
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05-01-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
Scott Diamond and Anibal Sanchez face off on getaway day in Detroit as the two Central Division foes wrap up their three-game series. Diamond was very effective last season against the Tigers, posting a 1-0 record and a 2.11 ERA in 21.1 innings of work. Overall, in 33.2 innings pitched, Diamond has a 2.67 ERA against the Tigers. At Comerica Park, Diamond is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts. Diamond does not issue many walks and makes batters hit their way aboard, which is good on a getaway day where guys tend to hack away early in the count at pitches in the zone. Without a day off, the Tigers, who already have the series wrapped up, may take the opportunity to give some guys a rest. Anibal Sanchez continues to pitch well since coming over from the Marlins last season. He is coming off a phenomenal start against the Braves where he struck out 17 over eight innings. He now has 41 strikeouts against just nine walks in 33.2 innings pitched. Like Diamond, Sanchez is around the plate a lot and that's conducive to getaway day unders. The Twins have scored just 31 runs in 10 away games this season. Jeff Kellogg will be calling the balls and strikes. That's also favorable to the under, as he called 23 unders in 34 games last season. With a getaway day and two pitchers that are going to get outs rather quickly, the under looks like a solid play here. PLAY: MIN/DET UNDER |
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04-28-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 180.5 | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
New York at Boston
Each of the first three games of this series have been low scoring with the Knicks easily winning by 7, 16 and 14 points. It's clear that the Celtics simply cannot score enough points in the half court game to compete. Doc Rivers is one of the best coaches in the league and nobody knows this better than he does. Therefore we expect the Celtics to change pace here in order to put more points on the board. The totals in this series have consistently been downgraded by a full three points in each and every game. Starting off at 189 in the opener, to 186 1/2 in game two, and 183 1/2 in game three. This line is currently sitting in the 180 1/2 range. Sports betting is not that easy to just continue to play the games under and cash. The zig zag theory is well known with sides but it comes into play here as well. Teams down 3-0 know their season is virtually over. You just don't win four straight games very often against a team you just lost to three straight times. Let's look for the pace to quicken here as the intensity lessens for the Celtics, and the Knicks are more than happy to run. PLAY OVER |
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04-27-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Washington Nationals OVER 8 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
CINCINNATI @ WASHINGTON
Mike Leake and Dan Haren, two pitchers with a knack for giving up home runs, will face off on Saturday afternoon in D.C. Leake faced the Nationals on April 6 and allowed four runs and 10 baserunners over six innings. Haren faced the Reds on April 5 and allowed six runs on nine hits, four of them were home runs, over four innings of work. Haren has allowed at least three runs and has not gone more than five innings in all four of his starts. Leake is 3-2 over seven starts against the Nats with a 5.26 ERA. All four of Leake's starts have gone over the total this season and three of Haren's four starts have gone over. Seven of the last 10 games between these two teams have gone over the total. With two pitchers that are around the plate a lot, two lineups full of talented, aggressive hitters, and a warm day that should help the ball carry, there should be some runs in this one. PLAY: CIN/WSH OVER |
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04-24-13 | Milwaukee: M Estrada v. San Diego: E Volquez OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
MILWAUKEE @ SAN DIEGO
The Brewers and Padres will face off in suddenly hitter-friendly Petco Park with Marco Estrada and Edinson Volquez on the mound. Not only does the pitching matchup project runs, but Paul Emmel will be calling the balls and strikes. Last season, Emmel called 27 overs out of 33 games behind the plate. Estrada has been an all or nothing pitcher so far this season. He has 25 strikeouts against just four walks over 24 innings, but has also allowed 28 hits and six home runs. Normally a pitcher with his fly ball tendencies would play well at Petco, but as of April 22, Petco was fourth easiest park to homer in this season. The main reason for this play is because of Edinson Volquez. Over the last three years, in the start immediately following a a start of seven or more innings pitched and two or fewer earned runs, Volquez has posted a 7.10 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP. Overs are 14-3 in those 17 starts. Volquez is still dealing with the command issues that have plagued him over his career, with just 12 strikeouts and 10 walks over 18.1 innings this season. He has allowed a mind-blowing 39 baserunners in those 18.1 innings. He has induced just 17 swings and misses this season, so hitters are teeing off or laying off. With both offenses putting up big numbers on Tuesday night after going over the total on Monday night as well, this pitching matchup, the home plate umpire, and some very favorable Volquez trends make the over a great play for Wednesday night. PLAY: MIL/SD OVER |
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04-24-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
PITTSBURGH @ PHILADELPHIA
Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Halladay meet in the third game of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday night. The Phillies have been downright terrible against left handed pitching this season with a .520 OPS, which ranks 29th in all of baseball. They are batting just .182 as a team against southpaws. Overall, the Phillies offense is struggling, managing just 3.47 runs per game. The first two games in this series have already easily flown under the total, with seven combined runs. Rodriguez has issued just one walk in 16 innings of work and has allowed just one earned run on five hits over that span. Roy Halladay has made adjustments, as most good pitchers do. His pitching coach told reporters after the game that Halladay threw 50 sinkers in his last start, the most he's thrown in any start since 2009. He's going to combat his velocity loss by making a concerted effort to pitch down in the zone with sinkers and mix his cutter and his breaking balls more. Halladay has been excellent in his career against the Pirates with a 0.98 ERA over 46 innings. Like the Phillies, the Pirates are struggling offensively with just 3.6 runs per game. They're also allowing just 3.45 runs per game. With the Phillies struggling badly against left handed pitching and the Pirates not having an explosive offense, the under shows value in this game with a favorable pitching matchup. PLAY: PIT/PHI UNDER |
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04-23-13 | ATL GM2 v. COL GM2 OVER 10 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
ATLANTA @ COLORADO
We're expecting runs when Julio Teheran and Jon Garland match up on Tuesday night in Coors Field. It's been a rough go so far this season for Teheran, with a 7.31 ERA and a 7.28 FIP, which shows that he has pitched as bad as his ERA indicates. Teheran has allowed 30 baserunners in 16 innings and five of his 21 hits allowed have left the yard. Teheran is not working deep into games, with outings of five innings, six innings, and five innings, but he has gotten six runs of support in each of his three starts so he has no decisions on the year. The Rockies have scored 59 runs in nine games at home and have a .508 slugging percentage at Coors Field. They're a very talented offense that gets a boost from being at home in their hitter-friendly conditions. Overs were 49-28 at Coors Field last season and 49-31 in 2011. Reclamation project Jon Garland takes the mound for the Rockies. Garland is a pitch to contact kind of guy, which should play into the Braves' favor, as they have the second highest strikeout percentage of all teams in 2013. With Garland averaging just 0.5 strikeouts per inning over his career, the Braves should be able to take their cuts. Garland's numbers so far are a little misleading, as two of his starts came at Citi Field and Petco Park. In his lone start at home, he faced the Padres, who are definitely struggling early in the season. It'll be interesting to see how Garland holds up in his fourth start. Garland had not pitched since 2011 before his first start this season. His velocity dropped from his second start to his third start, as did the horizontal movement on his fastball. Garland is a guy who lives on the sinker and flat sinkers get hit a long way. According to PITCHf/x data, Garland did not get a single swing and miss on a pitch in the strike zone in his last start. The Braves have to be salivating to face Garland. PLAY: ATL/COL OVER |
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04-10-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 8-5 | Win | 101 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
BALTIMORE @ BOSTON
Ryan Dempster makes his first start at Fenway Park against Jake Arrieta and the Baltimore Orioles. Dempster was rocked to the tune of a 5.09 ERA in his first 12 starts in the American League last year and gave up three runs in five innings to the Yankees in his first 2013 start. Dempster's growing pains in the American League should continue this season. Sporting an above average left on base percentage rate for his career, in large part because of the weaker National League and pitchers hitting, Dempster should be a pitcher to fade or bet overs with this season. His BB/9 last season was significantly lower than his career average as a starter. His BABip was also below league average and 25 points below his career average. All of these are bad signs entering a start against a team with the ability to hit home runs like the Orioles. Fenway Park doesn't appear to be a friendly park for Jake Arrieta. Arrieta, who has allowed 1.22 HR/9 over his career, struggles with command and gave up a lot of line drives last season. In a small sample size of just two appearances, Arrieta has an 8.53 ERA at Fenway. He really struggled against a poor Twins lineup in his first start, only lasting five innings after allowing five runs on seven hits. The Red Sox have a much better offense and it's unlikely that Arrieta will be real sharp this early in the season as a guy who fights with command. These are two very capable offenses who can put up crooked numbers in a hurry and this pitching matchup with a good hitter's park has the potential for some runs. PLAY: BAL/BOS OVER |
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04-08-13 | New York (A): H Kuroda v. Cleveland: U Jimenez UNDER 8 | 11-6 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
NY YANKEES @ CLEVELAND
Hiroki Kuroda and Ubaldo Jimenez face off in Cleveland's Home Opener on Monday. Kuroda is the kind of pitcher that the Indians could have trouble with. Up until Sunday's 17-hit outburst against the Rays, the Indians were hitting .218 as a team and the team's 2-3-4 hitters are a combined 10-for-72 so far this season. With a lot of guys that swing and miss, it's difficult for the Indians to string a lot of hits together to score runs and the ball does not carry well in Cleveland in April. Kuroda is around the plate a lot and has a career BB/9 of 2.10. Jimenez did a terrific job in his first start of mixing up his pitches and changing the eye level of the hitter. With so many injuries in the lineup, the Yankees are using a lot of backups and fringe starters in their everyday nine and those guys tend to be backups and depth options because of their inability to hit the breaking ball. For as awful as Jimenez was last season, he still posted a 3.70 ERA at Progressive Field. The Indians also have a fresh bullpen, so their best options will be available to relieve Jimenez. PLAY: NYY/CLE UNDER |
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04-07-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Phoenix Suns OVER 197.5 | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
515 New Orleans at Phoenix
The Hornets have been out of playoff contention for some time now in a season in which they never could get any consistency. Injuries to top players have hurt this team who is better than their given record when at full strength. But now that the end of the season is near we look for individual accomplishments to supersede team goals, which means higher scoring contests. New Orleans has played as a group for the majority of the season which is a testament to the coaching, but you can see the trends the last couple weeks when the Hornets faced a team out of playoff contention. Overall 6 of the last 8 games against non-playoff teams have surpassed the posted total, including a game that stayed under the number by just a single point. Phoenix has already thrown in the towel having lost 12 of 13 games. The mid-season coaching change hasn't mattered and the players have started looking at individual numbers. Overall 6 of the last 7 games have surpassed the posted total by a combined margin of 99 points. We look for more of the same tonight. PLAY OVER |
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04-06-13 | Miami Marlins v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | 3-7 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
MIAMI @ NY METS
Ricky Nolasco and Jon Niese face off in the middle game of a three-game set at Citi Field. Citi Field is one of the best pitcher's parks in the National League and these are two really bad offenses. Both Nolasco and Niese were good in their first starts of the season. Nolasco allowed two runs on just three hits in a 2-0 loss. Niese allowed two runs on four hits in a 4-2 win. Both guys like to use the ground ball to their advantage, ranking above average in each of the last two seasons. In their first series of the season, the Marlins scored one run, but pitched well, allowing just 11. The Mets scored 20 runs, but that's unlikely to continue. They allowed just eight to the Padres. Nolasco and Niese are both #1 pitchers on their respective staffs and know that they have to be at the top of their game for their teams to have a shot at winning. With Citi Field's pitcher-friendly conditions, two lineups that aren't very threatening, and a couple of decent bullpens, runs should be at a premium. PLAY: MIA/NYM UNDER |
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04-02-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 207 | 81-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
766 Dallas at Los Angeles
With Dallas clinging to any hopes of the postseason this is a must win game against a team in their path to the playoffs. That said the value isn't there from the side perspective, but there does remain value towards the under. In a playoff type scenario we look for this game to be tightly contested from a defensive standpoint. In the previous meetings this year we have seen point totals of 202, 204 and 190 yet this number is higher than any of those, despite the meaning of this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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04-02-13 | Texas Rangers v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
TEXAS @ HOUSTON
Yu Darvish and Lucas Harrell square off in the second game of their interstate rivalry. Darvish is a pitcher that we have isolated this season as a guy who is in line for a great year. After trying to be something he wasn't for most of July and August, the Rangers' coaching staff told Darvish to do what worked best for him. He responded by posting a 2.21 ERA in September and issued just seven walks in 36.2 innings of work. He has tremendous swing-and-miss stuff and batters only hit .218 off of him. With a lot of young hitters in the Houston lineup, patience may not be a virtue for them yet and Darvish is very difficult to hit if he's throwing strikes. With the six-run loss in the Opener, the Rangers will definitely try to get their better bullpen arms in the game to get them some work after Darvish's night is done. Lucas Harrell takes the mound for the Astros. Last season, the Astros were 14-18 in Harrell's 32 starts, which shows how good Harrell was for the offensively-inept Astros. Harrell is an extreme ground ball pitcher who should benefit from the defensive upgrades at both corners. Harrell's ERA and FIP were nearly similar, which means he did not over or underachieve last season. His walk rate should go down this season with another year of experience for both he and catcher Jason Castro. Most of Harrell's other stats, BABip and LOB% included, were right around league average, so Harrell was pretty consistent last season and the signs point to more consistency this year. Like the Rangers, the Astros will want to get their top bullpen arms some action since Erik Bedard threw all 3.1 innings of relief on Sunday. The Astros lineup struck out the most of any team in the Major Leagues by percentage last season, which would make Darvish a very difficult matchup for them. With Harrell's ground ball tendencies and low home run, the opposition has to string several hits together to score runs and hitters are still trying to work on their timing early in the season. Runs could certainly be at a premium in this game. PLAY: TEX/HOU UNDER |
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03-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 208.5 | 93-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
504 Oklahoma City at San Antonio
Major showdown here between two powerhouses in the Western Conference. When games become more important they also become more tightly played with neither team willing to make a mistake. Oklahoma City comes in here unrested after beating the Celtics yesterday 91-79. When playing unrested against a rested opponent this season 6 of 9 games have stayed under the posted total. In the first two meetings with the Spurs this year the games stayed under the total by 34 and 8 1/2 points. San Antonio without Parker are more likely to take the air out of the ball and slow down the pace. When rested and playing an unrested foe 5 of 7 contests have stayed under for the Spurs. After allowing 136 points to Portland last time out you know this area will be a major form of discussion in game preparation. PLAY UNDER |
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02-23-13 | Georgetown v. Syracuse UNDER 124 | 57-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
550 Georgetown at Syracuse
Huge game in Big East action for these two teams who rely on defense as a staple of their game. We like to play these type of contests under the total as every possession is so meaningful for both teams and very often squads play very tight in this situation. It also helps us that the last time each of these two squads took the floor they put up peak offensive performances, Georgetown scoring 90 against DePaul and the Orange producing 84 vs Providence. When looking at how these teams do against good basketball teams in the second half of the season we see Georgetown going under 20 of 31 games the last three seasons and Syracuse doing so in 23 of 40 games during the same time span. We look for more of the same here. PLAY UNDER |
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02-22-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 185.5 | 105-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
808 Chicago at Charlotte
Two hungry teams do battle tonight as both squads are looking for a needed victory. The battered Bulls have dropped 5 of 7 games and are off a 19 point blowout at the hands of Miami. Chicago has now failed to reach the century mark in eight straight contests and the first two meetings in this season series resulted in 178 and 172 points being scored. With Oklahoma City on deck this is a very important game for the Bulls and this team wins with defense. Charlotte once again failed to show up after a victory as the Bobcats are now 3-10 ATS on the season after a win. They are also just 7-16 ATS when facing an opponent off a loss. While that would point us to Chicago in most cases we can't lay the inflated number because of the Chicago lack of offense. Therefore we will look for defense to rule the roost here as the Bulls clamp down on this questionable Bobcat scoring unit. PLAY UNDER |
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02-20-13 | Colorado St v. UNLV UNDER 141.5 | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
788 Colorado State at UNLV
The Rams will run when playing teams with lesser talent but they slow the pace when taking on the upper half of the Mountain West Conference. Just take a look at recent play against New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State. Total points scored of 127, 127 and 126. Colorado State is a team that rebounds the ball terrifically and makes you shoot the ball from distance in order to beat them. They are huge inside so the opposition doesn't get many easy baskets. All three of their main competitors in this conference lack shooting touch which is why the Rams are a major match-up problem. The Rebels just played its most intense game of the season against San Diego State and still didn't cover the spread in a 2 point home victory. Coach Fisher decided to run with the Rebels which falls right into the hands of the opposition. Colorado State won't make that same mistake. UNLV has really struggled as of late getting fast break points and it doesn't rebound well enough to get out on the break. We expect the Rams to dominate the glass and force the Rebels to shoot its way to victory. PLAY UNDER |
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02-16-13 | San Diego St v. UNLV UNDER 136 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
646 San Diego State at UNLV
The first meeting this season saw 90 points being scored in the first half as our over play easily cashed in an 82-75 UNLV road victory. In watching that game it was clear that the Aztecs did not have the athletes to run with the Rebels. At halftime coach Fisher slowed down the pace and San Diego State got back into the game. Because of that we will switch course and look for San Diego State to slow the pace from the start as this game stays under the posted total. UNLV hasn't had a good offensive game since that matchup as the entire conference knows they can't let the Rebels run. Since that time UNLV's fast break points have been nonexistent as the opposition forces the Rebels to shoot from the outside. UNLV simply does not have the personnel to hit from deep and their best perimeter shooter was injured last time out at Air Force. San Diego State is known for getting up and down the court but Steve Fisher is too good a coach to fall into that situation again against these Rebels. Look for the Aztecs to play similarly to how they came out in the second half of the previous game. PLAY UNDER |
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02-09-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 188 | 76-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
504 Charlotte at Philadelphia
Charlotte is on a 2-11 over/under run when installed as road underdogs. After giving everything it had last night hosting the Lakers we can't see the Bobcats suddenly finding an offensive rhythm. Charlotte has failed to reach 98 points in six straight games and Philadelphia is playing lights out defense. The last four 76ers games have gone under by margins of 23, 49, 30 and 13 1/2 points. The opposition in those match ups scored 88, 61, 80 and 84 points. The Bobcats just don't have the weapons to make this a track meet. PLAY UNDER Top Opinions: Denver/Cleveland Over Utah/Sacramento Under |
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02-01-13 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics OVER 189 | Top | 84-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
805 Orlando at Boston
The Magic suffered a major injury when its only good defensive post player Glen Big Baby Davis went down with a season ending injury against New York. When he was out for 11 games earlier the Magic's defensive rating was worse by 1.7 points per 100 possessions. In turn the team fared better offensively in his absence. Without Rondo Boston's totals will be lower because he was the main option on offense. But the Celtics have players on this team who have been major contributors offensively in the past. We expect the offense to have an easy time here without much of an interior defense from Orlando. The last time these two played we saw 204 points scored in regulation in a 116-110 overtime win for the CEltics. We look for another high scoring affair here. PLAY OVER |
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01-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots OVER 51 | 28-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
303 Baltimore at New England
Only 3 times in 26 games have the Ravens lost on the road by double digits. This is a team that matches up pretty well offensively against this New England stop unit. The last four regular season meetings have been decided by 1, 3, 6 and 3 points. Last years playoff game was a 1 point differential. Baltimore didn't face too many quality offenses but when it did the games were high scoring. New England totaled 61 in the first meeting, Houston totaled 56, Washington finished at 59, Denver was 51, the NY Giants totaled 47 and last weeks game against Denver was another shootout. Baltimore played the fourth longest game in NFL history last week which favors the Patriots. New England like Denver will use a hurry up offense to keep Baltimore from making changes defensively. The Ravens have suffered through defensive injuries right now and the Patriots are smart enough to limit changes as they look to wear out this aging stop unit. PLAY OVER Opinion New England Team Points Over |
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01-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 49.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 44 m | Show | |
302 San Francisco at Atlanta
The 49ers must travel cross country off a dominating win, especially offensively as the team had a breakout performance. But in eight road games this season the 49ers never surpassed 383 total yards of offense. This is a team that performed far better offensively at home than on the road. Atlanta is 33-7 SU the last five seasons at home (Includes lay down game against Tampa in the season finale). Only 3 of those 40 games the Falcons lost by more than 4 points. The coaching staff has already said it is going to a zone defense to keep Kapernick from going crazy running the football. The 49er defense is the best unit on the field and defense travels better than offense. Therefore we expect San Francisco to keep this Atlanta team in check. Based on last week this total is very much inflated. San Francisco didn't play a game with this high a total all season. Atlanta did play games with high totals but opponents in those games all had severe defensive questions: Washington, Oakland, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. PLAY UNDER Opinion Atlanta +3 1st Half |
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