Who is the public?
Have you stopped by Cappers Picks today to use our Sports Betting Tips from the experts at Cappers Picks? Specifically tools for how to bet against the public. Public bettors make up the vast majority of the action. They are you and I; they are the fans, the writers and everyone else who is not privy to what goes on inside.
Those involved behind the scenes at the sportsbooks are not considered part of the public; nor are players, coaches, referees, team employees or even league officials.
Professional bettors are a unique situation. In some ways, many of them are part of the public action. In other ways, they are considered “sharps” and outside of the public sphere.
How Do Sportsbooks Set Lines And Make Money?
Oddsmakers set a number that they believe will entice equal action. If they are successful, there will be the same amount of money wagered on both sides of the spread or the total.
In this scenario, the sportsbook will collect over 4.5% of all that’s wagered, assuming the two sides are priced at -110. If $110 million is wagered on each side, the winners will be paid out $100 million from the losers and the remaining $10 million stays in the house (10/220=0.4545).
When the action skews to one side, markets react and the number moves, in theory, representing a more accurate assessment of the matchup.
Studies have shown that a large enough collection of individuals who offer their own opinion makes a remarkably accurate assessment of a situation. Most line movement tightens a line.
But when an individual’s error penetrates public thinking, it can shape individual opinion. Groupthink leads people to blindly follow the crowd, without thinking for themselves, which creates opportunity for the bettor willing to go the other way.
Fade The Public
Fading the public is easy. Free online resources provide information on betting action. Someone who automatically fades the public simply takes the side with less action. But that system hasn’t proven to be profitable over the long haul.
Fading the public profitably requires thoughtful analysis of line movement or a lack of line movement. As mentioned above, most line movement tightens a line and offers less opportunity than there was before.
However, certain individual members of the media can shape public opinion and if that individual is using flawed logic, the subsequent action will throw a number out of whack.
Overreaction to news is also an opportunity to bet against the public. Late news of an injury that grabs headlines can often get overstated in the betting markets and swing a line too far.
Sports Betting 101
But what if a line doesn’t move, despite skewed action? Sometimes when a sportsbook knows something the public doesn’t, it will set a line to attract more action on one side when the other side actually has some advantage unknown in the public eye.
In this case, a sportsbook can tip its hand. It has set a strange line because it knows something and will refuse to react to the public action, which it knows is unfounded. In such a case, going against the public puts you on the side of the insiders, which is where you want to be.
What do you think of our article How to: Bet Against the Public? Comments are welcome below.
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