Kentucky Derby Handicapping Picks
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2024 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping Odds…plus some predictions? Need some advice on who to take? The 2024 (G1) Kentucky Derby is set for May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. Here’s a preview of our top contenders.
Kentucky Derby Stakes Preview
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $5 million
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 4
- Post Time: 6:57 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2024 Kentucky Derby free pick, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2024 Kentucky Derby Handicapping
The first points race of the 2024 Kentucky Derby qualifying series was the (G3) Iroquois Stakes way back in September of last year, and now 46 races later the 20 three-year-old horses left standing will go to the gate for the Run for the Roses on Saturday.
Incidentally, the winner of the Iroquois was West Saratoga, and he’s one that has survived the long grind to make the Derby gate, the first time a horse has done so since the points system for qualifying was introduced in 2013.
The 2024 Derby presents a interesting handicapping angle, in that the top two horses in the morning line odds – and also the top two in the final points standings – in Fierceness and Sierra Leone have completely different running styles. While Fierceness is a front runner that presses the pace, Sierra Leone is a certified closer that comes from way back in the pack.
The last three consecutive Derbies have produced upset winners that went off at double-digit odds, with the favourite not winning since 2018, the last of six favourites in a row to win. As usual, if you like anyone besides the top two, you’re going to get good odds.
They’ll be going 1 1/4 miles on the Churchill dirt track.
Odds listed here are provided by the Churchill Downs track oddsmaker.
2024 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Fierceness Race Odds: 5-2
Record: 5 starts, 3 wins, 1 third. Last out: Won the (G1) Florida Derby by 13 lengths. Style: Pace-presser.
How he can win: When he’s on, he’s on, and no other horse in the race can match his best speed figures. The Florida Derby win was a tour de force, and a repeat of that could have him winning easy. He’s also the only horse in the race with two Grade 1 victories to his name.
How he can lose: He’s been displaying a good-race, bad-race pattern, and may regress off of the Florida win. He had things his own way in all three of his wins, and has to show he can handle some adversity.
2024 Kentucky Derby Free Pick & Handicapping: Sierra Leone Race Odds: 3-1
Record: 4 starts, 3 wins, 1 second. Last out: Won the (G1) Blue Grass Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths. Style: Deep closer.
How he can win: He’s a monster when he gets rolling, and likes to make a big, sweeping move off the final turn and runs them down in the stretch. He’s just a nose away from being a perfect 4-for-4, and has already beaten several of these.
How he can lose: He might be dead last after the first turn, and have to pass them all. Other late runners should be closer to the pace and could get the jump on him.
Catching Freedom Race Odds: 8-1
Record: 5 starts, 3 wins, 1 third. Last out: Won the (G2) Louisiana Derby by 1 length. Style: Mid-pack closer.
How he can win: He has very good acceleration once he gets clear in the lane, and enough early speed not to fall too far out of it. Has a win at 1 3/16 miles, so distance isn’t a problem.
How he can lose: He may have to deal with a lot of traffic throughout the entire race. He may just not be good enough to hold off Sierra Leone, who will be charging hard behind him.
Just A Touch Race Odds: 8-1
Record: 3 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds. Last out: Second in the (G1) Blue Grass Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths. Style: Pace-presser.
How he can win: He should be on or near the lead early, and his running style is well-suited to winning the Derby. Will battle all the way to the finish line.
How he can lose: May have to contend with a very fast pace up front that could take something out of him. Ran very well in the Blue Grass but still couldn’t hold off Sierra Leone.
Forever Young Race Odds: 10-1
Record: 5 starts, 5 wins. Last out: Won the (G2) UAE Derby by 2 lengths. Style: Mid-pack stalker.
How he can win: Japanese bred’s record speaks for itself, and he’s another with a 1 3/16 miles win, so distance isn’t a concern. Has very good late acceleration.
How he can lose: It could be by design, but his workouts at Churchill Downs have been very slow, and it’s unclear as to the level of competition he’s been facing compared to the US-based horses. UAE Derby runners are 0-for-19 in the Kentucky Derby.
Resilience Race Odds: 20-1
Record: 6 starts, 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third. Last out: Won the (G1) Wood Memorial by 2 1/4 lengths. Style: Stalker
How he can win: He’s a versatile colt that has some early speed but has also shown the ability to stay on late in the race, and seems to be able to handle any kind of trip. Has shown lots of improvement from his two-year-old to three-year-old season and could step forward again.
How he can lose: Will have to work to get good position early from an outside post. The Wood wasn’t the strongest field of the prep races, and the competition here is going to be much tougher.
Here’s My 2024 Kentucky Derby Free Pick.
Handicapping the 2024 Derby seems to come down to one question. Do you like the closers – Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and a couple others – or do you prefer the front-runners, Fierceness, Just A Touch et al.?
For myself, I lean toward the front runners, and I do have history on my side. In the points-system era of the Derby, only three horses have come from far back to win it. One of those, Orb, did it in 2013, the first year of the points system, and he was the post-time favourite.
Eight of the 10 horses that crossed the finish line first since Orb have been on or very near the lead throughout the race. Early speed and position counts for a lot in the Derby.
On paper, Fierceness is the best horse, but he’s hard to trust at low odds given his established race pattern. There’s no doubt Sierra Leone will be coming hard through the stretch, but I wonder if he’ll just have too much to do in the 20-horse field.
I want to like Resilience at huge odds, but I don’t think he’s proven himself yet at this level. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Catching Freedom win, but I’ve already stated my case against closers, and if you want a closer, Sierra Leone is probably a much better horse.
Someday a Japan-bred, UAE Derby winner might win the Kentucky Derby, but I won’t bet on it being this Saturday, and if Forever Young beats me, then so be it.
So that leads to Just A Touch. Putting aside his lack of experience, he’s run three very good races in a row. He drew an excellent post, and has the early speed to fall into a perfect stalking trip while staying out of any traffic trouble. I could easily see him emerge with the lead as they swing off the final turn, and then it will be whether he’s good enough to hold on to the wire.
One caveat in all this is the weather. Showers are expected at Churchill both Friday and Saturday, and if the track comes up wet, Just A Touch has a win and a second-place finish over sloppy tracks.
Others with wins over off tracks include Dornoch, Sierra Leone, Mystick Dan, Forever Young (twice), Fierceness and Society Man.
Also note that with the scratch of #9, Encino, all horses outside that post will move in one spot, but they will remain with the same saddle-cloth number.
Derby Picks
1st – #8 – Just A Touch
2nd – #2 – Sierra Leone
3rd – #17 – Fierceness
4th – #19 – Resilience
Full Field: 2024 Kentucky Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Dornoch 20-1
- #2 – Sierra Leone 3-1
- #3 – Mystick Dan 20-1
- #4 – Catching Freedom 8-1
- #5 – Catalytic 30-1
- #6 – Just Steel 20-1
- #7 – Honor Marie 20-1
- #8 – Just A Touch 10-1
- #9 – Encino Scratched
- #10 – TO Password 30-1
- #11 – Forever Young 10-1
- #12 – Track Phantom 20-1
- #13 – West Saratoga 50-1
- #14 – Endlessly 30-1
- #15 – Domestic Product 30-1
- #16 – Grand Mo the First 50-1
- #17 – Fierceness 5-2
- #18 – Stronghold 20-1
- #19 – Resilience 20-1
- #20 – Society Man 50-1
- #21 – Epic Ride 30-1
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