Kentucky Derby Handicapping
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2024 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Tips…and some angle plays? Need some advice on who to take? The 2024 (G1) Kentucky Derby is set for May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. Here’s a closer look four long shots to consider.
Kentucky Derby Preview
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $5 million
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 4
- Post Time: 6:57 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2024 Kentucky Derby free handicapping tips, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2024 Kentucky Derby Handicapping
In the 149 times the Kentucky Derby has been run, 35 long shots – which we’ll define as horses that went off in double-digit odds – have won the race, including the last three years in a row. In fact, the post-time favourite has not won the race for the past five years, reversing a trend that saw six consecutive favourites win between 2013 and 2018.
Favourites are favourites for a reason. They’ve already won big races, sometimes in impressive fashion, and often they’ve already beat several of the horses they’ll face in the Derby. They often have the pedigree that indicates they should be able to get the 1 1/4 mile distance, and they may be training very well up to the race.
Taken altogether, they’re expected to repeat their past performance and win, or come very close to it. They can’t be completely ignored.
At the same time, given the large field and difficulty in getting a great trip, the Kentucky Derby is perhaps the one US race where it’s always worth it to take a flyer on a long shot, either as a straight Win bet, or to be used in the exactas, trifectas and superfectas.
Here’s a look at four long shots that could add big value to those exotic tickets.
Odds listed here are provided by the Churchill Downs track oddsmaker.
2024 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Value Picks: Just Steel Race Odds: 20-1
The most experienced horse in the race with 11 lifetime starts, Just Steel has only won twice but he has been second four times and has only really run one bad race out of his last five.
Last out he was second, beaten two lengths in the (G1) Arkansas Derby. What’s notable about that is the horse that won, Muth, is not eligible for the Kentucky Derby as trainer Bob Baffert sits out the second of his two-year ban from racing horses at Churchill. But if Muth was in the race, he would be one of the favourites, and Just Steel was able to hang with him almost all the way to the finish line.
2024 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Value Picks: Just A Touch Race Odds: 10-1
A half-brother to Just Steel, with both sired by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, Just A Touch by contrast is one of the more lightly raced entries in the field, with three previous starts under his saddle. Coincidently, Justify was making his fourth lifetime start when he won the Derby in 2018.
What Just A Touch has going for him is a lot of early speed, and he drew a good post. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him on or very near the lead as they go down the backstretch, and then it’ll be a matter of whether he can hold on to the wire when the closers start to hit their best stride in the stretch.
2024 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Value Picks: Stronghold Race Odds: 20-1
There may be some question as to the level of competition California invader Stronghold has been facing recently, but there’s no question as to the results, as he’s never been worse than second in any of his six starts.
He’s won two in a row, including last out in the (G1) Santa Anita Derby, and it’s worth noting that he broke his maiden at Churchill going one mile back in October. In that race he finished ahead of two that he’ll be facing again on Saturday.
2024 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Value Picks: Resilience Race Odds: 20-1
It took Resilience four tries to get his maiden win, but it only took him two more tries to capture his first Grade 1 victory after taking the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in early April.
He drew a tough outside post here and he’s going to have to work a bit to get a good position off the first turn, but he’s a versatile colt who has some early speed and has also shown ability to keep grinding in the late stages of a race. He doesn’t have the back class of some others he’ll be facing, but seems to be steadily improving with lots of upside.
Full Field: 2024 Kentucky Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Dornoch 20-1
- #2 – Sierra Leone 3-1
- #3 – Mystick Dan 20-1
- #4 – Catching Freedom 8-1
- #5 – Catalytic 30-1
- #6 – Just Steel 20-1
- #7 – Honor Marie 20-1
- #8 – Just A Touch 10-1
- #9 – Encino Scratched
- #10 – TO Password 30-1
- #11 – Forever Young 10-1
- #12 – Track Phantom 20-1
- #13 – West Saratoga 50-1
- #14 – Endlessly 30-1
- #15 – Domestic Product 30-1
- #16 – Grand Mo The First 50-1
- #17 – Fierceness 5-2
- #18 – Stronghold 20-1
- #19 – Resilience 20-1
- #20 – Society Man 50-1
- #21 – Epic Ride 30-1
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