Kentucky Derby Handicapping
Horse racing gamblers are you looking for 2024 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Tips…and some angle plays? Need some advice on who to take? The 2024 (G1) Kentucky Derby is set for May 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY. Here’s a closer look at the top pacesetters and closers.
Kentucky Derby Preview
- Race: Kentucky Derby
- Purse: $5 million
- Track: Churchill Downs
- Date: May 4
- Post Time: 6:57 PM (ET)
- Live: Kentucky Derby Odds: Click Here
Before we can give you our expert 2024 Kentucky Derby free handicapping tips, we have to break down the entries! In fact, we’d love to hear from you after you’ve given this post a read to see if you see an angle that we don’t!
2024 Kentucky Derby Handicapping
The 2024 Kentucky Derby presents an interesting handicapping angle in that the slight second choice in the morning line odds – Sierra Leone at 3-1 – is a stone-cold closer. While one of the most exciting aspects of racing for fans is the sight of a late-running horse charging down the stretch and reeling in the leaders with every stride, the fact is that it’s not a style that wins many Derbies.
The obvious problem is that if you break in the last quarter of the field, you have at least 15 horses to pass to get to the front. Try to save ground on the rail and you risk getting boxed in and have to deal with a lot more kick back of dirt, or mud if the track is wet. Swing wide and you have to cover more ground than the horses you’re trying to run down.
The last favourite to win from far off the early pace was Orb, back in 2013. Since then, eight other winners have been front-runners or stalkers, and none of those was worse than third at any point on the race. That being said, the last two winners in Mage and Rich Strike did come from far back, in both cases taking advantage of a pace meltdown in front of them.
Which brings us to the pacesetters. It’s often said that closers are “pace dependent” meaning they need a fast early pace to close into against tiring front-runners. This was the case in the past two years, with very fast early pace. In the case of Rich Strike they ran the first quarter mile in 21:78 and went 45:35 to the half-mile.
That’s six-furlong sprint race speed, not 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby speed. It was no surprise that only one horse in the top five at the six-furlong mark finished the race in the top five, as all the other speed tired and faded, opening the door for the big upset.
So for the front-runners, the key is to go fast, but not so fast there’s nothing left in the tank as you turn for home.
Here’s a look at a pair of front-runners and a pair of closers, and what impact they might have on the race.
Odds listed here are provided by the Churchill Downs track oddsmaker.
2024 Kentucky Derby Pacesetters and Closers: Sierra Leone Race Odds: 3-1
In his last two races – both wins – Sierra Leone started ninth a field of 10 and ninth in a field of 11, and both times he was able to run them all down and get the win. Prior to those he eventually got the lead in the stretch, but then was beaten by a nose, when starting 10th in a field of 10.
The key for him is a powerful sweeping move through the final turn that then propels him into the home stretch with lots of momentum where his big stride eats up track. The question is just how wide he’ll have to go and how much ground he’ll lose to the front-runners when he makes that move.
2024 Kentucky Derby Pacesetters and Closers: Catching Freedom Race Odds: 8-1
While he typically doesn’t start as far back as Sierra Leone, last out Catching Freedom came from dead last in a field of 11 to win the (G2) Louisiana Derby. Prior to that he hadn’t been better than sixth at the first call of any of his races, two of which he went on to win.
In his case, he has a quick turn of foot once they get straightened into the stretch, and from there he grinds down the horses in front of him. His best chance will be if he’s sitting at least mid-pack as they come off the turn and is able to get outside from there. It’s noted that the LA Derby win came at 1 3/16 miles, here he gets another 16th to work with.
2024 Kentucky Derby Pacesetters and Closers: Dornoch Race Odds: 20-1
If past performance is any indication (and it is), Dornoch is clearly a horse that needs the lead. In his six lifetime races, three times he went to the lead out of the gate and never looked back, taking the field wire-to-wire. In his other three races, he didn’t get the lead out of the gate, and didn’t win the race.
Unfortunately for him, he drew a terrible post. In a typical 8, 9 or 10-horse field, being in the #1 post is an advantage for a speed horse. In the 20-horse field of the Derby, he’s going to have the entire field collapsing on him as others try to get position into the first turn.
If he wants the front, he might need to use so much energy right out of the gate, he’ll have little left when they turn for home and the real running starts.
2024 Kentucky Derby Pacesetters and Closers: Track Phantom Race Odds: 20-1
In the last six of his seven races, Track Phantom was in first place by the second call of the race, and held that position as they came into the stretch, controlling the pace all the way. Three of those races he won, and in two others he ran second.
His style exactly suits past Derby winners, but the problem might be the distance. He has yet to win racing farther than 1 1/16 of a mile, and in the LA Derby he led at the top of the stretch but faded to fourth. Now he has to try and carry that speed for 1 1/4 miles, something that just might be beyond him.
Full Field: 2024 Kentucky Derby Odds
By post position
- #1 – Dornoch 20-1
- #2 – Sierra Leone 3-1
- #3 – Mystick Dan 20-1
- #4 – Catching Freedom 8-1
- #5 – Catalytic 30-1
- #6 – Just Steel 20-1
- #7 – Honor Marie 20-1
- #8 – Just A Touch 10-1
- #9 – Encino 20-1
- #10 – TO Password 30-1
- #11 – Forever Young 10-1
- #12 – Track Phantom 20-1
- #13 – West Saratoga 50-1
- #14 – Endlessly 30-1
- #15 – Domestic Product 30-1
- #16 – Grand Mo The First 50-1
- #17 – Fierceness 5-2
- #18 – Stronghold 20-1
- #19 – Resilience 20-1
- #20 – Society Man 50-1
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