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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* SUPER TOTAL) This has been a back and forth series and in Game 7 I believe that we’ll witness a very defensive affair. Fatigue comes into play here in Game 7 of this second round contest. Also note that the thin air of Denver can’t help these “gassed” players either. Denver has been at its best at home, but I’m expecting a battle until the final horn. In my opinion, this one sets up as a very tight, closely guarded defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring run and gun “shootout.” And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Portland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 22 following a home win vs. a division rival, while Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten this year when playing with two days rest. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Nuggets. |
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05-10-19 | Warriors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (10* GAME OF WEEK) I had a play on the Rockets in their tight Game 5 loss, but for Game 6 I’m going the other way as I expect the defending champs, despite playing without the services of Kevin Durant, to battle tight and to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. If ever there was a time for Klay Thompson to step up and show the basketball World that he’s worth a max contract, now is the time. With Durant available for the next round, the Warriors don’t need to panic at this point. If Golden State gets a decent game out of Curry and a good one from Thompson, they have a legitimate shot at taking this game outright. So far home court advantage has meant everything in this series, but the veteran leadership which the Warriors bring to the table in this instance is the difference maker in my opinion. Note as well that Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 when trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is 0-2 ATS in its last two when facing elimination in a playoff series. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Rockets. |
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05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers under (10* TOTAL EXPRESS) Coaching in the Playoffs, especially in the second round and beyond is all about “making adjustments.” Denver’s been great in that so far after taking out the Spurs in seven games and now seemingly getting a “firm read” on the Blazers and managing to slow down their star Damian Lillard. Clearly it’s up to the Blazers to respond, but these have historically been spots in which Lillard has faded in, not being able to step up and carry the load. And who else on Portland will step up to carry the load if Lillard can’t? I think this one sets up as a defensive affair, with Denver doing everything it can to control the tempo from the outset. Additionally note that the Nuggets have seen the total go under in three of four already this year off a win by ten points or more over a division rival, while Portland has seen the total dip under in three of four this year in trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more vs. an opponent. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 106-102 Blazers. |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/76ers under (9* TOTAL EXPRESS) Philadelphia is playing for its life here. After taking Game 1, Philadelphia has struggled with consistency and it now finds itself in a 3-2 hole. Toronto would clearly love nothing more than to end it here and now after taking Game 5 125-89. Where is Philadelphia’s scoring going to suddenly come from? Big man Joel Embiid is struggling with injury and sickness and for the most part Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons have been completely ineffective. The last thing Toronto wants to do is to turn this into a track meet, instead I predict the visitors to come out and to blanket the 76ers once again from start to finish. Over the last ten years Toronto has had difficulty closing out series like this, but with Kawhi Leonard, perhaps that’s going to change this season. Regardless, from a situational stand point I think this one definitely sets up as a defensive affair, but also note that Toronto has seen the total go under in eight of ten so far in the playoffs anyways. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Raptors. |
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05-08-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Rockets (10*) So far home floor advantage has meant everything in this series. But other than Kevin Durant, the Warriors have looked very “off” over the last two games and I think that Houston has a legitimate shot at stealing Game 5 outright. The Clippers won two games at Oracle Arena remember in the opening series. The Rockets made the necessary defensive adjustments and both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are struggling with consistency right now. James Harden and company though have definitely improved dramatically on both ends of the court and I see no reason that that momentum won’t be carried over here. Consider as well that Houston is 4-0 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Golden State is only 9-18 ATS this year as a home favorite in the same points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-109 Warriors. |
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05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 98-124 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) This has been a back and forth series. The Nuggets lost in quadruple OT in Game 3, only to then bounce back and steal another high-scoring affair in Game 4 to even the series. After back-to-back “marathons,” I believe a much more defensive affair in Game 5. Especially with the shift in venue to the thin Denver air. This one sets up beautifully as a lower-scoring under from a situational angle, but also note that Portland has seen the total dip under in 13 of its last 21 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Denver has seen the total go under in four of five this year off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Denver. |
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05-07-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-125 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This has been a very competitive series and I expect nothing different in Game 5. Toronto earned the 101-96 win last time out behind 39 points from Kawhi Leonard. In Game 3 Philadelphia star Joel Embiid had 30 points, ten boards and five blocks in the 76ers 116-95 victory. Leonard has been incredible so far, but one has to wonder how much gas he has left in the tank? The rest of the Raptors have been poor and it’s the opening that Philadelphia needs to once again take control of this series. Philadelphia’s role players have also struggled at times, but I still think that Philadelphia features the deeper and more skilled scoring talent. Additionally note that Philadelphia already 4-1 ATS this year off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, while Toronto is only 20-22 ATS this season after a game where it covered the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Raptors. |
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05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10*) Houston is back in this series after its OT win in Game 3. Clearly the last thing Houston can do is take the foot off the gas in Game 3. I’m expecting a very similar style of contest in Game 4 (note I had the over in Game 3). With the home side pushing the pace from the opening tip until the final horn, the Warriors will be forced to match pace with that style of game play. It sets up great as a high-scoring shootout from a situational stand point. Look for these two offensive clubs to play to another “barn burner” in Game 4 and play the over. T.M. Prediction: 117-115 Rockets. |
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05-05-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 210 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers over (10*) This doesn’t have to be an extremely high-scoring game (like Portland’s four OT Game 3 victory), to go “over” this very low number. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting. While most likely are thinking that these two teams will come in “gassed” after the Game 3 “marathon,” I believe these offenses are finally just “warming up!” Both teams are in unchartered territory and with the Warriors looking more susceptible right now than at any other time over the last five years, the Western Conference is up for grabs at this point. These are two young/hungry teams and I think fatigue is an over-rated factor here. And the numbers support that theory, as note that Denver has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 17 in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of ten already this season off a no-cover where it still won SU as the favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Blazers. |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 83 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) Even the most casual NBA fan knows the story lines and the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, so breaking down individual player match ups is pretty much pointless in my opinion. Golden State dominated the first two games of this series at home, but with the shift to Houston, I’m expecting a much more wide open affair here. Clearly the Rockets are going to be looking to push the pace from start to finish as they try to turn the momentum around in this series. Golden State was surprisingly good defensively vs. Houston at home, but I believe it’ll struggle to duplicate that effort on the road. The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that Golden State has seen the total go over the number in 20 of 31 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total go over in six of eight when playing with double revenge this year. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Warriors. |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 58 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Celtics over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Celtics blew out the Bucks behind a great defensive performance in Game 1, before Milwaukee returned the favor in Game 2. While the Game 2 total did sneak over the number, This series so far hasn’t seen any big time offensive fireworks, but I believe that’s about to change here. Milwaukee will obviously be looking to push the pace again here after its 123-102 Game 2 victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 29 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. Milwaukee had 20 3-pointers in Game 2 and I’m expecting a duplicate game-plan in Game 3 from the visiting side. Kyrie Irving looked great in Game 1 for Boston and poor in Game 2. With the shift in venue, we can expect the C’s best player to return to form here as well. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 119-118 Milwaukee. |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (10* GAME OF MONTH) After getting blown out in Game 1 the under 76ers earned the split with a dominant performance in Game 2 and I believe they’ll carry that confidence and momentum over into another small upset in Game 3 in friendly confines. Toronto shot only 36.3 percent from the floor and 27 percent from range in Monday’s loss. Philadelphia is deep and it earned the Game 2 win despite big man Joel Embiid pretty much being ineffective. With the shift in venue, I think Embiid has his biggest performance yet. Note that Toronto is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less and just 7-8 ATS when playing with two days rest, while Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS this year off a road win vs. a division rival. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 76ers. |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 217 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Denver won 121-113. I’m expecting another higher-scoring affair in Game 2 as well as the Blazers will look to get out and push the pace from start to finish. Denver looked great though after its seven games opening round victory over the Spurs in Game 1 and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that it won’t carry that momentum over here. Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver in Game 1 with 37 points. Portland got 34 points from Damian Lillard and it’ll need a similar effort here if it hopes to earn a coveted split. Portland has seen the total go over in seven of ten off a loss vs. a division rival this year, while Denver has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 20 after playing two straight home games. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 120-117 Nuggets. |
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04-30-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 218 | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 37 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Warriors over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I had a play on the over in Game 1 and while that contest failed to eclipse the posted number, I think that the situation and the trends definitely now point to a higher-scoring shootout in Game 2. Houston was playing from behind all night in Game 1 and if it doesn’t want to return home in an 0-2 hole, clearly it’s going to have to make some major adjustments. Golden State surprised me defensively, but I think the Warriors will have their hands full this time with a Rockets team which I definitely expect to push the pace from start to finish. And the numbers/trends support our theory, as note that Houston has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total go over in 19 of its last 29 when leading in a playoff series. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 118-112 Warriors. |
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04-30-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) I had a play on Boston in Game 1 and I think it has a legitimate shot at pulling off the outright upset in Game 2 as well. If you didn’t get a chance to read my Game 1 analysis, do so now as the logic behind that play for the most part also directly applies to this one: I think Game 1 is going to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Celtics averaged 99.3 PPG in their series win over the Pacers, while allowing only 91.8. Kyrie Irving led the Celtics with 22.5 points, 4.5 boards and 7.8 assists per game. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG in its series win over the Pistons, while allowing 98. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for the Bucks with 26.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Note though that Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road, while Milwaukee is a poor 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 when playing on three or more days of rest. I think the Celtics’ depth and experience will keep this series and especially Game 1 competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-113 Boston. |
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04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10*) This is an interesting series, as two teams which are accustomed to either missing the playoffs entirely, or which inevitably go out early in the second round, now go head-to-head in Mile High in the second round. The Blazers haven’t played since Tuesday though and I think that rest is going to lead to rust after their five-game series win over the Thunder. Both teams have been exceptional defensively to this point and I expect those trends to carry over here. Portland comes in averaging 111 PPG and allowing 105.2 in the playoffs, while Denver is averaging 105.1 points and allowing 103.1. The under is 7-3-1 in the Blazers last ten road games and all signs point to that being added to right here. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 106-103 Nuggets. |
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04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Warriors over (10* TOTAL TRADE MARK) Golden State struggled with offensive consistency vs. the Clippers at times in the first round, but I think it’ll have the foot on the gas in Game 1 vs. the Rockets. And for Houston it’s an opportunity to finish some unfinished business. The Rockets had a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Warriors last year, but an injury to guard Chris Paul in Game 5 saw the Rockets then go on to lose three straight. The Rockets scored only 89 points per game over those last two games, so clearly they’ll be out to send a message as well. The stage is now set for an epic battle and I expect that to translate into a high-scoring blowout. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 127-120 Warriors. |
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04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 121 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* TRADE-MARK) I think Game 1 is going to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Celtics averaged 99.3 PPG in their series win over the Pacers, while allowing only 91.8. Kyrie Irving led the Celtics with 22.5 points, 4.5 boards and 7.8 assists per game. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG in its series win over the Pistons, while allowing 98. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for the Bucks with 26.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Note though that Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road, while Milwaukee is a poor 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 when playing on three or more days of rest. I think the Celtics’ depth and experience will keep this series and especially Game 1 competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Bucks. |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets under (10* BLACK-LABEL) I had a play on the “over” in Game 6, but I believe that Game 7 sets up as a defensive affair. These are in fact two of the better defensive clubs in the Western Conference and with so much on the line, I’m expecting each to double down on that end of the court. This has been a back and forth series, with each side looking great at times and very poor in others. The numbers/trends however support our theory though, as note that SA has seen the total dip under in eight of 12 this year after a blowout win by 15 points or more, while Denver has seen the total go under in 12 of 20 this season in trying got revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 100-95 Nuggets. |
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04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 234.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Clippers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I was expecting a more competitive, lower-scoring battle in Game 5. That didn’t hold true though, as LA jumped out to an early big lead and then didn’t let up, keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. The Clippers needed a similar effort in their upset win in Game 2 as well. Game 3 at home saw them come out an “lay an egg” though. Offensive consistency from game-to-game has plagued the Clippers at times in this series. I think the Warriors double down defensively here as they look to end it tonight. Note that Golden State has seen the total go under in 15 of 22 this year after allowing 120 points or more, while LA has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten off an upset win as a road dog. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 119-110 Warriors. |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 208 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Spurs over (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) It’s a BIG game between the Nuggets and the Spurs in Game 6 in San Antonio. Both teams have looked great in this series and each has looked poor as well. With their backs against the wall though, I think the Spurs offer great value to extend this series to a decisive Game 7. The Spurs have been better at home all year than on the road and that matters here. So does the veteran leadership that San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich brings to the table. Denver has exceeded expectations this season, but it definitely struggled with consistency down the stretch. If you’ve seen my “Free Play” on this game, then you know I like the Spurs. San Antonio can’t let Denver dictate the pace of this one obviously and expect to win. With the home side pushing the pace from start to finish, I believe this total will indeed fly over sooner, rather than later. Additionally note that Denver has seen the total go over the number in six of seven this year after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest, while San Antonio has seen the total soar over the number in ten of 13 this year after a road loss by ten or more points. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-114 Spurs. |
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04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -107 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clippers/Warriors under (10* TRADE-MARK) LA came from behind to knock off the Warriors in Game 2, but other than that it’s been all Golden State in this series. The Clippers can obviously ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the sharp-shooting Warriors, instead the visitors are going to have to try and muscle their way to another victory here. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring “shootout.” A great situational play, but also note that the Clippers have seen the total go under in 19 of 30 as a road underdog tho shear, while GS has seen the total go under in eight of its last 11 as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. |
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04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets OVER 212 | Top | 90-108 | Loss | -103 | 59 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) So far this has been a very evenly matched series as we come into Game 5 all tied at 2-2. The Spurs have averaged 106.8 points and they’ve allowed 108.8 overall this year, while Denver is averaging 108.8 PPG, while allowing 106.8. These are two tough defensive-minded clubs, but I think Game 5 will break the mould and we’ll see a higher-scoring shootout. The Spurs will be out to push the pace after allowing a double-digit lead go to waste last time out. A pivotal/crucial game obviously and one which I expect to be dominated by each team’s underachieving offenses. A great situational play on the over. T.M. Prediction: 117-112 Nuggets. |
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04-23-19 | Nets +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 100-122 | Loss | -100 | 58 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Brooklyn Nets (10* GAME OF WEEK) I had a play on the Nets in Game 4 and I lost that play, the only NBA play of the four that I released on the weekend that lost. After winning Game 1 the Nets have faltered as the 76ers have taken three straight. However, with its back against the wall, I like Brooklyn to step up here and get the job done. I also don’t think that the outright win is out of the question. Consistency from game to game has plagued the 76ers all year and while they’ve seemingly gotten it together over the last week, I’m not fully convinced quite yet until I do indeed see them finish the deal. The Nets have admittedly disappointed over the last couple of games, but we don’t have to question their drive in this one. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to deliver the goods. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-115 Nets. |
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04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 212.5 | Top | 91-107 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Jazz over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Houston has a 3-0 lead. Utah’s playoff run is likely over, as 3-0 hole is going to be just too big to overcoming. The Rockets won Game 1 by a score of 122-90, Game 2 by a score of 118-98 and Game 3 by a score of 104-101. The Rockets have been exceptional defensively so far, meaning that the Jazz’s only chance in this one is to try and break the mould and push the pace. Utah has so far been shutdown offensively, but the numbers support us today in that the Jazz have in fact seen the total go over the number in eight of ten this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. I’m finally expecting a competitive, higher-scoring contest in Game 4. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Houston. |
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04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (10* MONEY-MAKER) I think the Clippers keep this crucial Game 4 competitive. The outright win isn’t out of the question, but I’ll recommend grabbing the points. After rolling to a 132-105 win in Game 3, I think the Warriors come out flat here. The Clippers know they can’t go back to Golden State down 3-1 and expect to win this series, so with the home side laying everything on the line, I do indeed expect a “nail biter” until the end. The Clippers have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Golden State and they won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. Additionally note that Golden State is still a horrible 16-20 ATS as a road favorite this season, while LA is a solid 16-8 ATS in its last 24 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-117 Warriors. |
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04-21-19 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 203.5 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Celtics/Pacers over (10* TRADE-MARK) Not surprisingly, this has been a low-scoring defensive series. I think the narrative changes here though as I look for the home side to push the pace here from the outset as it looks to stave off elimination. The Celtics have a 3-0 lead after their 104-96 Game 3 win, but clearly they’ll have their hands full here vs. this desperate home side. Note that Boston has had to rally in the second half in all three games to earn the victory. I think Indiana once again pushes the pace, but this time for a full four quarters. A faster paced game will lead to more shots and more shots will lead to more points. Additionally note that Boston has seen the total go over in 11 of 15 this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Indiana has seen the total soar over in four of its last six as a home underdog. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Boston. |
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04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 216.5 | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 59 h 5 m | Show |
.M. Selection: Rockets/Jazz under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Jazz have their backs against the wall. The Rockets have a 2-0 lead and if Utah has any hopes whatsoever of getting back into this series, it’s going to have to lean on its strengths. What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Jazz? For me its hard nosed defense. Clearly the Jazz can’t turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hang with James Harden and company. Instead Utah is going to be playing a half to full court defense from start to finish. It’ll also be out to control the tempo while on offense. Additionally note that Houston’s already seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as a road underdog, while Utah has seen the total dip under in nine of its last 14 after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. The situation and numbers both point to the under as the correct call. T.M. Prediction: 107-103 Jazz. |
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04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +4.5 | Top | 98-93 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic (10* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR) Orlando dominated the second half of the regular season and it came out and accomplished exactly what it wanted to in Toronto to open this series, earning a “split” by handily taking Game 1. The Raptors bounced back in Game 2, but I smell another slight upset in Game 3 as I look for the home side to ride the wave of emotion. Of course the Magic would have loved to have taken both games from the Raptors, but that’s not realistic. A split was the goal and with that goal having already been accomplished after the first game, the Magic took the foot off the gas in Game 2. It’ll be full speed ahead though in Game 3. These teams are evenly matched, but I think the home floor advantage is significant here. Note as well that Toronto is a terrible 11-14 ATS this season as a road favorite, while Orlando is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a home dog. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Magic. |
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04-18-19 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 227 | Top | 131-115 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Nets under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) Game 1 went under. Game 2 went way over in the 76ers blowout victory. In Game 3 I’m anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring battle. Brooklyn will have to get back to basics here if it has any shot at pulling off another upset. The Nets looked stout in their 103-92 Game 1 victory, but they fell apart in the second half of Game 2, ultimately falling 145-123. I think both teams come in “gassed” here. Note as well that Philly has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 20 when playing with two days rest and in 14 of 22 this season after a victory by ten points or more, while Brooklyn has seen the total dip under in ten of 16 this year when playing with two days rest. All signs point to a more methodical pace. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-107 76ers. |
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04-17-19 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 203 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -107 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pacers/Celtics over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two defensive minded clubs collide on Wednesday night. Boston took Game 1 by a score of 84-74, but I’m anticipating a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Indiana can’t rely on its strength and sit back and hope to grind this series out. The Celtics are equally as capable at playing that style of game, yet they’re better on the offensive end. If Indiana has any shot at taking this series, it’s going to have to find a way to score. With the visitors putting an added emphasis on that end of the floor tonight, I’m expecting a much faster paced game in Game 2. A faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 110-106 Boston. |
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04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 57 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets (10* GAME OF WEEK) After three straight wins, I think the Spurs have a letdown here. San Antonio scored the major upset in Game 1 and with the “split” accomplished, I think that the Spurs predictably come up short here (just like the Nets did last night in their blowout loss to the 76ers!) It’s an identical situation. The 76ers had a great overall year, yet it would have basically all gone to waste if it didn’t buckle down and take care of business in Game 2. And now that’s exactly the same situation that the Nuggets find themselves in. San Antonio is still just 11-12 ATS as a road dog this year, while Denver is still 23-16 ATS as a home favorite (also 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two days rest.) Lay the points, expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 112-98 Nuggets. |
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04-15-19 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 35 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clippers/Warriors over (10*) The Warriors pretty much had their way with the Clippers in Game 1. But the playoffs are all about adjustments from game to game and I think the talented Clippers can keep Game 2 much closer than what this spread would suggest. They gave up 121 points in Game 1, but during the regular season they averaged 115.1 PPG themselves. LA has the firepower to match pace today and while the Warriors clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas either, everything points to a competitive battle in my opinion. Note that LA has seen the total go “over” in 13 of its last 21 revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total soar over in 11 of its last 18 after a cover as a double digit favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-115 Warriors. |
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04-14-19 | Pistons v. Bucks -12 | Top | 86-121 | Win | 100 | 58 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Bucks (10* BEST OF BEST) I’m expecting a decisive blowout here. Detroit won its final two regular season games to qualify for the eight spot. The Pistons reward? A date vs. Milwaukee, a team it went 0-4 against in the regular season. The Pistons average 107 PPG and they allow 107.3. The Bucks average 118.1 PPG and they allow 109.3. Milwaukee is 12-3 ATS vs. the division this year, while Detroit is just 6-9 ATS in the same position. Like the Warriors did last night, look for the No. 1 seed in the East to deliver a message here as well. T.M. Prediction: 118-100 Bucks. |
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04-13-19 | Spurs +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 37 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Antonio Spurs (10* TRADE-MARK) These are two hard-nosed defensive minded clubs, but I believe they’ll engage in an up-tempo “shootout” to open this series. I think these teams are evenly matched. The Spurs averaged 111.7 PPG and they allowed 110, while Denver averaged 110.7 PPG, while allowing 106.7. Note though that the Spurs are a perfect 5-0 ATS this year trying to revenge a road blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more, while Denver is interestingly only 33-34 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Denver. |
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04-10-19 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 225.5 | Top | 135-134 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pacers/Hawks under (10* O/U MONEY-MAKER) Meaningless game. The Pacers are locked into the fifth spot in the East and a win or a loss today will do nothing to change that. Indiana will be resting most of its starters and the Hawks don’t even have the added motivation of playing “spoiler” here. Indiana has taken all three earlier meetings and while it may fall short here because of the circumstances, in my opinion this one absolutely sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair. Additionally note that Indiana has seen the total go under the number in 29 of 37 as a favorite this season, while ATL has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 12 when playing with two days rest. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Indiana. |
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04-09-19 | Hornets v. Cavs +7 | Top | 124-97 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Cavaliers (10* TRADE-MARK) The Cavaliers are looking to snap a nine-game slide, while also looking to play spoiler here to the Hornets, who are in a dog fight until the end for one of the final spots in the East. Overall the Hornets average 110.5 PPG, while allowing 111.9. The Cavs average 104.6 PPG, while conceding 114. I’ll point out though that the Hornets are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Cleveland is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. Expect the home side to push this one to the brink. T.M. Prediction: 111-110 Hornets. |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) This is a big game for both teams. The Nuggets just clinched their division with a 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, but they still have a shot at taking the entire Western Conference. The Blazers have been almost unbeatable at home, but key injuries to center Jusuf Nurkic and to CJ McCollum could be catching up to Portland. The Nuggets aren’t a high-scoring team anyways, instead relying on a top notch defense and efficient offensive attack that runs through big man Nikola Jokic. Portland is running out of gas in my opinion as well. This one has the feel of more of a “chess match” than a “track meet.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY |
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04-07-19 | Clippers +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-131 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) The Clippers are in a dog fight for one of the final spot in the West. They’ll be eager to get back on track here and to try and score the upset win after a 135-103 home loss to Houston and a 122-117 setback to the Lakers. “(If) we lose a couple more, we’ll be in the eight seed,” head coach Doc Rivers admitted, preceding that comment with some sarcasm. “That would be really smart on our part. (The seeding) matters. It absolutely matters. I don’t think anybody wants to go play Golden State. If we have to, we’ll be ready. But my guess is the other seven teams aren’t volunteering. That’s all I’m going to say.” Golden State is on the verge of clinching the Western Conference, but after four straight wins, I think the home side comes in a bit complacent here. Outright upset? Nah! But grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments. T.M. Prediction: FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY |
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04-03-19 | Spurs +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 85-113 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Spurs are trying desperately to avoid eighth spot in the West, which would almost assuredly mean a matchup with the Warriors. San Antonio handled the Hawks 117-111 at home last night and I think they carry that momentum over into the first game of their final road trip of the year. Denver on the other hand was busy losing 116-102 to the Warriors last night and I think it comes in still collectively caught up on that setback. Note that the Spurs are 32-22 ATS this year vs. teams which average over 106 plus points per contest, while Denver is just 6-9 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 108-107 Spurs. |
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04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 222 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Warriors under (10* O/U BLACK-LABEL) What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s high-flying offense. However, I believe we’ll see a much more defensive affair this time around as the visitors try to control the tempo/pace from the outset. Denver only averages 110.9 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 106.7. Golden State is out for its fourth win in five games and it holds a 1.5 games lead in the West over Denver now. Clearly this is going to be a “battle,” and in my opinion it’ll be a low-scoring defensive one. The Warriors average 117.7 PPG and concede 111.5, but note that GS has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 20 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. T.M. Prediction: 117-109 Warriors. |
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04-01-19 | Hornets v. Jazz -11.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Utah Jazz (10* MONEY-MAKER) Utah has won four straight over some pretty mediocre competition, but it finds itself in another favorable situation here, facing a Hornets team that comes in off a blowout loss in Golden State just last night. The Hornets would need to sweep the board and get outside help to make the playoffs at this point, while Utah is looking to gain ground. From a situational stand point, this one sets up fantastically for the home side. I’m laying the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-100 Jazz. |
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03-31-19 | Hornets v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 | Top | 90-137 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hornets/Warriors under (10* O/U BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams have ben playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late as each pushes for towards the playoffs. The Hornets predictably play with revenge here. Charlotte is in tenth in the East, but only two games behind Miami for the eighth spot. The Hornets have won four of their last five. Overall the Hornets average only 110.9 PPG, while allowing 111.9. The Warriors come in off an exhausting OT loss in Minnesota, and I think they’ll be “gassed” here. I expect the home side to try and control and dictate the tempo of this one, rather than trying to push the pace and shoot the lights out. It’s a great situational play in my opinion as all signs point to a defensive affair. T.M. Prediction: 112-100 Warriors |
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03-30-19 | Blazers v. Pistons -3 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Blazers come in off a big win on the road over Atlanta just last night. Detroit plays with the immediate revenge factor here after falling 117-112 in Portland just last week. The Pistons are in sixth spot in the East, but only 1.5 games ahead of ninth place Orlando, who they picked up a win over in their last outing. Note that Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing the second game of a back-to-back, while Detroit is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Detroit is in a dog fight as it looks to maintain positioning and I expect it to make the most of this situation. T.M. Prediction: 114-103 Detroit. |
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03-29-19 | Wizards +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 124-128 | Win | 100 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Wizards (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Wizards have essentially been eliminated from the playoffs, s they’d need to sweep their remaining six games, while also getting a lot of outside help. The odds are against Washington tremendously, but after breaking a five-game slide with a win over Phoenix last time out, clearly it hasn’t quite thrown in the towel yet. The Jazz come in on the other end of the spectrum having won four straight. Will they “get caught looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight? I think the answer to that is: “very possibly!” Note that Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Utah is just 10-16 ATS this season after having won three of its last four games. I’m grabbing all these points. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Utah. |
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03-27-19 | Wizards v. Suns UNDER 231 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wizards/Suns under (10* TOTAL BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST) I base my picks on many different things. This one is based mainly on the overall situation and some strong/relevant O/U ATS stats. As note that Washington comes in “dog tired” after its game at the Lakers on Tuesday night. The Suns are coming off a 125-92 loss to the Jazz, their fourth straight setback. Phoenix is going through the motions as it plays out the tail end of another disastrous campaign. Washington beat Phoenix 149-146 in triple OT at home earlier in the year, but the overall situation points to much more of a lower-scoring defensive battle this time around (it’s interesting to note that the Suns have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last ten in trying to revenge an in-season loss vs. a non-conference opponent in which it allowed 140 or more points in.) This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: (FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY) |
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03-26-19 | Magic v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Heat (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Magic torched the 76ers at home just last night, but I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back to back vs. a Heat team fighting for one of the final playoff spots in the East. Also note that Miami plays with “revenge” here after losing two of three in the season series. Note that the Magic are just 5-8 in the second game of back-to-backs this year, averaging 110.8 PPG and allowing 112.2 in those situations. The Heat return home rested after demolishing the Wizards on the road Saturday. Now tied with Orlando for the final spot, clearly the home side will be looking to push the pace from start to finish. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. vs. a team with a losing road record, while Orlando is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. T.M. Prediction: 110-95 Heat. |
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03-25-19 | Nets +6 v. Blazers | Top | 144-148 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Brooklyn Nets (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Nets come in with some momentum here after back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Kings. Portland comes in having won three straight vs. Detroit, Dallas and Indiana. Two teams hungry for more wins to bolster their playoff positioning from difference conferences collide and I’m expecting a battle until the end. The Nets just held the Lakers offense to 38.5 percent shooting. The Nets are 61-44 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog (including a money-making 17-14 this season), while Portland is just 12-21 ATS in its last 33 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including only 4-6 this year.) Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Nets. |
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03-24-19 | Nuggets v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 88-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers (10* BLACK-LABEL) Denver smashed the Knicks 111-93 on the road on Friday, while the Pacers return home to friendly confines off a humbling 0-4 Western Conference road trip, including a 112-89 setback to Golden State on Thursday. Part of their losing road trip included a 102-100 loss in Denver on March 16th. With a chance to avenge that loss and to break the four-game slide, I look for the home side to risk life and limb here as it tries to get back into the playoff hunt. Denver comes in complacent at the end of its trip and note that it’s just 1-3 ATS in its last four after six or more SU wins. Additionally note that the Pacers are already 4-1 ATS this year as a home dog of six points or less. T.M. Prediction: 108-103 Pacers. |
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03-23-19 | Suns +10 v. Kings | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phoenix Suns (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Kings are desperately trying to post some wins to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Suns won’t be in the playoffs, but they’ll be trying to play spoiler here. The Kings come in off a win over the Mavericks, but after three straight losses, including a blowout setback at home to the Pistons, I think the Suns will give Sacramento everything it can handle tonight. Note that Phoenix is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 after two straight blowout losses of 15 points or more, while Sacramento is still only 6-8 ATS vs. the division. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-114 Kings. |
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03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Rockets over (10* TOTAL OF YEAR) I’m expecting a wide-open “shootout” between these heated Western Conference rivals. The Spurs are looking to get back on track after their nine-game win streak was snapped in a lacklustre effort at home to the Heat. The Rockets are also looking to atone for a poor setback on the road to Memphis. After extended streaks, each of these top Western Conference foes had a letdown last time out, setting up what I believe the perfect spot to pull the trigger on the “over” here. Note as well that the Spurs have seen the total go over the number in five of their last six when playing with double revenge vs. an opponent, while Houston has seen the total fly over in 21 of its last 31 at home. This number is a little low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-116 Houston. |
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03-21-19 | Pistons -6.5 v. Suns | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Detroit’s been playing a lot better since the All Star break. After back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Raptors, the Pistons will be out to atone for a lacklustre effort vs. the Cavs in their last game. After a three week surge about a month ago, the Suns have predictably come back down to Earth and they enter off a deflating loss at home to the lowly Bulls. Phoenix has struggled in this spot for bettors for quite some time, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while Detroit is 7-3 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. I’m laying the points and expecting the Pistons to get back on track in this favorable spot. T.M. Prediction: 120-108 Pistons. |
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03-20-19 | Jazz v. Knicks +12 | Top | 137-116 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Knicks (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Outright upset? Probably not. But I think the visitors come in complacent and get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The Jazz come in off a 116-95 road win over Washington on Monday, while the Knicks were killed 128-92 on the road in Toronto on Monday. Not surprisingly the home side plays with revenge here after falling 129-97 in the first matchup of the season in Utah back on December 29th. Utah’s won four straight, but with a game tomorrow night in Atlanta, it’s not to difficult to see the visitors also getting caught “looking past” their opponent as well. Additionally note that Utah is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while New York is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a home dog in the same points range. Yes the Knicks are just counting down the minutes to the off-season, but this one sets up great from a situational stand point. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 107-105 Utah. |
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03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Sacramento Kings (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Nets have lost three straight on their current road trip and I think they’ll stumble again here in this difficult road venue. Sacramento’s playoff hopes are fading, but it comes in with momentum after breaking a three-game slide by knocking off the Bulls on Sunday. I think the Nets are still mentally caught up on their last loss, giving up a ten point lead in the final minute and losing on a last second three-pointer by one point. The Kings clearly haven’t thrown in the towel yet and I think they keep the momentum rolling tonight. Not as well that Brooklyn is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a losing SU record, while the Kings are 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 121-110 Kings. |
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03-18-19 | Jazz v. Wizards +4 | Top | 116-95 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Wizards (10* MONEY-MAKER) Utah comes in off a satisfying 114-98 home win over the Nets on Saturday, while the Wizards got back on track in the Nation’s capital with a come from behind 135-128 home win over the Grizzlies. The Jazz got things turned around during a four-game home stand, going 3-1, including posting three straight victories. Utah averages 110.1 PPG and it allows 106.4. The Wizards average 114.6 PPG and they allow 116.9. But the Jazz find themselves in a classic “trap” game here. Winning at home is one thing, but Utah’s achilles heel has been its play on the road. The Wizards aren’t going down without a fight in the weak Eastern Conference and I believe they’ll take their complacent opponent down to the wire. Note as well that Utah is just 11-12 ATS this year off a home victory, while Washington is 7-2 ATS as a home underdog. I smell an upset. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Wizards. |
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03-17-19 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hawks/Magic under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I base my picks on many different things. I think Atlanta comes in dog tired here after its 129-100 loss in Boston last night. The Hawks turned the ball over 17 times and I have a hard time seeing the team “getting up” for the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Orlando got back on track with a win over the Cavs in its latest outing. Orlando’s defense was impressive, holding the Cavs to just 40 percent shooting, including only 7 of 31 from 3-point land. Note that Orlando has seen the total go under in 21 of its last 31 vs. teams with a winning percentage below .400, while ATL has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of its last 13 in the second game of a back to back. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-103 Magic |
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03-16-19 | Pacers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers (10*) The Pacers have won back-to-back games. So have the Nuggets. Both teams will be in the postseason and I don’t expect either to go down without a fight tonight. Indiana comes in off a big come from behind win over OKC at home and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Indiana is 12-7 ATS this year after playing two straight home games, while Denver is just 10-12 ATS in its last 22 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 108-107 Pacers. |
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03-14-19 | Lakers v. Raptors OVER 231 | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Lakers/Raptors over (10*) LA still has an extreme outside shot at making the playoffs. It won’t be going down without a fight here. After losing two of three, Toronto also won’t be taking anything for granted here. I expect a faster paced, wide open affair. A faster paced game = more shots and more shots = more points. Note as well that LA has seen the total go over the number in four of five in trying to revenge a home loss of ten points or more to an opponent, while Toronto has seen the total go over in five of its last six overall this month. T.M. Prediction: 130-115 Raptors. |
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03-13-19 | Jazz v. Suns +7 | Top | 114-97 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phoenix Suns (10:05 EST). The Jazz have been playing terribly of late and the Suns have been playing great. I think those trends continue here. Utah enters off consecutive losses to the Thunder and Grizzlies, while the Suns come in off an epic road win at Golden State. Devin Booker had 37 points, eight boards, 11 assists and two steals in the win over the Warriors. The Suns are healthy and confident. The Jazz are in complete disarray and note that they’re a terrible 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Utah. |
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03-12-19 | Bucks v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | Top | 130-113 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Pelicans under (10* O/U BLOWOUT) Milwaukee comes to town focused here after its 121-114 road loss to San Antonio on Sunday. New Orleans is also hoping for a bounce back here after falling 128-116 on the road in Atlanta on Sunday. The Bucks won this matchup at home 123-115 back on December 19th, but I’m expecting a much more defensive battle this time around. Milwaukee averages 117.4 PPG and it allows 108.4. The Pelicans have dropped three straight. They average 115.6 points and they allow 115.4. The Pelicans won’t be playing in the postseason and the whole Anthony Davis fiasco, along with further injuries to other key players, has sent NO’s in to a tail spin. The Bucks will look to take advantage, but there’s no need to get into a “shootout” here. Note that Milwaukee has seen the total go under the number in 18 of its last 28 after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games also. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 117-110 Milwaukee. |
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03-11-19 | Hornets +9 v. Rockets | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Charlotte Hornets (10* TRADE-MARK) Clearly the Rockets are the better team, but I think the home side will lets its guard down enough to allow the hungry Hornets to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Charlotte has no more room for error at this point after losing three of its last four. While the outright upset is likely out of the question, we don’t have to question the visitors resolve and focus this evening. But after winning eight straight, including a tiger than expected win over the Mavericks on Sunday, I think the Rockets do come out flat here vs. their lowly non-conference opponent. Note as well that Charlotte is 6-3 ATS already this season revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while the Rockets are just 11-14 ATS in non-conference contests. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Rockets. |
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03-10-19 | Suns +17 v. Warriors | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phoenix Suns (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Suns had won four of five before a 127-117 setback in Portland last night. Phoenix won’t be resting anyone tonight though, but Golden State most likely will. After losing badly to Boston, the Warriors bounced back with a big win over the Nuggets in their last outing. The one thing that Golden State though has shown this season (especially in the second half) is inconsistency from game to game and it’s also often played down to the level of its competition. I think the Suns got caught looking ahead to this more high profile contest last night. Outright win? Nope. But closer than expected. Note that Phoenix is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Golden State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after leading its previous game by 15 or points at the half. T.M. Prediction: 120-114 Warriors. |
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03-09-19 | Wizards v. Wolves UNDER 243 | Top | 130-135 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wizards/Wolves under (10* TRADE-MARK) This number is high. The Wizards come in off an exhausting one point loss in Charlotte just last night and I think the team will struggle to muster up any sort of energy in the second game of the back-to-back. The Wolves on most nights push the pace from start to finish, as defense is normally an afterthought, but Minnesota is going to be able to control this one facing its tired non-conference opponent. These teams met in DC last weekend, and the Wizards won 135-121, but all signs point to more of a lower-scoring defensive affair this time around. T.M. Prediction: 125-110 Wolves. |
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03-08-19 | Mavs +7 v. Magic | Top | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dallas Mavericks (10* GAME OF MONTH) Both teams are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Chances are pretty slim for either obviously. Dallas comes in off a 132-123 road loss in the nation’s capital, while Orlando lost 114-106 in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Dallas beat Orlando 101-76 at home in early December and I believe it has a legitimate shot at the outright upset here as well. The Mavericks certainly won’t be lacking for motivation after losing three straight and eight of their last nine. Dallas averages 108.2 PPG and it allows 109.8. But a date against the equally as inept Magic is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion. Orlando has now lost two straight. The Magic average 105.9 PPG and they allow 106.8. Dallas though is still a solid 17-9 ATS in non-conference games, while Orlando is just 2-8 ATS when playing with two days rest and only 12-14 ATS in non-conference games this season. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Orlando. |
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03-06-19 | Celtics v. Kings +1 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Sacramento Kings (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Kings have been a nice surprise in the Western Conference, but clearly the Celtics are the better team. Boston has been waffling of late, but after its big blowout win at Golden State just last night, I think the visitors will stumble here in the second game of the back to back. The Kings are desperate for a win, as they’ve gone 2-4 since the All Star break, moving them back into the ninth spot in the West. Note as well that the Kings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home and 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing road record. Expect the hungry home side to step up and take advantage here. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Kings. |
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03-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10*) It would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams. Both come in playing at a very high level. Toronto has won ten of its last 12 and Houston has won five in a row, including a convincing win in Boston last time out. Toronto though plays with revenge here after falling 121-119 in Houston earlier in the season and I think that’ll be the difference this evening. Houston stumbles finally in this difficult road arena and at the end of its lengthy Eastern trip. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 117-100 Toronto. |
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03-04-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs +1 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Antonio Spurs (10* TRADE-MARK) These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions. The Nuggets come to town having lost two straight, most recently a 120-112 upset at home to New Orleans. San Antonio crushed OKC 116-102 at home on Saturday and it’s now won two straight after a poor road trip. These teams have split a pair of games this year, but I think the momentum that the Spurs have created recently gets carried over. Note as well that Denver is a terrible 2-8 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while San Antonio is 12-2 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less. T.M. Prediction: 118-110 Spurs. |
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03-03-19 | Blazers v. Hornets +3 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Charlotte Hornets (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Blazers big post All Star run came to a crashing halt in a 119-117 road loss in Toronto on Friday and I think they’re ripe for the picking here as their marathon road trip comes to an end. The Hornets also play with the added incentive of revenge here after falling 127-96 on the road in the first meeting on January 11th. The Hornets broke a three-game slide with a quality road win in Brooklyn in their last game and they still hold the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. It’s a golden opportunity for the home side here and I expect it to make the most of it. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Hornets. |
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03-02-19 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -13 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets (10* MONEY-MAKER) No need to overthink this one. The Pelicans’ big man Anthony Davis is sitting out after New Orleans’ 130-116 win over Phoenix, so we can expect the home side to lay the hammer down from start to finish in the thin mountain air. Denver comes in off a loss to the Jazz, but previous to that it had won five straight. Denver is also 8-2 ATS in its last ten at home,. while New Orleans is just 2-7 ATS in its lats nine in the second game of a back-to-back after winning the first by ten or more points. This one has blowout written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 128-108 Denver. |
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03-01-19 | Hornets +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 123-112 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Charlotte Hornets (10* TRADE-MARK) Both teams come in off losses. The Hornets fell 118-113 at home to the Rockets, while the Nets were upended 125-116 at home to Washington. The Hornets play with revenge here though after falling 117-115 at home to the Nets on February 23rd. Both teams need victories and clearly they’re very evenly matched (as evidenced by their game last week and by tonight’s spread.) The Hornets though are 5-1 ATS in their last six revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. Sometimes, not always, the “revenge” angle “works.” That’s the case here. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 115-113 Hornets. |
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02-28-19 | Warriors -6 v. Magic | Top | 96-103 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (7:05 EST). Orlando comes in off a deflating 108-103 road loss to the Knicks. The Warriors come to town off a 126-125 loss in Miami just last night. Golden State let the Heat back into the game late and an improbable last second 3-point shot by Dwayne Wade sealed the defending champs fate. A loss like that can be devastating for some teams, even in the middle of the regular season, but for the defending champs, it’s just another day at the office. The Warriors’ veterans quickly turn the page in my opinion and bounce back with a big effort in this favorable spot. Note that the Warriors are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after playing two consecutive road games, while the Magic are just 6-7 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less. I’m laying the points and expecting a rout. T.M. Prediction: 120-106 Warriors. |
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02-27-19 | Clippers +9.5 v. Jazz | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: 10* play on the LA Clippers (10* MONEY-MAKER) Both teams come in off wins over the Mavericks. Neither side has been playing particularly well since the All Star break though. But LA has many ATS advantages working in its favor today and I think that’ll be the difference. Note that the Clippers are 5-1 ATS revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Utah is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a home win by ten points or more. I’m banking on the hungry visiting side taking this one down to the wire. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 114-113 Jazz. |
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02-26-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-121 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: OKC Thunder (10* GAME OF HTE WEEK) It’s a big divisional game, but the Thunder play with double revenge here after dropping both previous meetings. Both teams have been playing well over the last two months, but I think that OKC has made bigger strides in that time. The Nuggets have been one of the best teams in the league since the start, but its early wins over OKC are skewed. That was then and this is now. Note that the Thunder are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent. And note that the Nuggets are just 1-2 ATS this season after two straight wins by ten points or more. T.M. Prediction: 120-117 Thunder. |
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02-25-19 | 76ers v. Pelicans UNDER 238 | Top | 111-110 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Pelicans under (10* O/U TRADE-MARK) This can still be a relatively high-scoring game and stay below this sky high number and that’s exactly what I expect here. The 76ers look to get back on track after a loss at home to the Blazers. The 76ers have still won five of their last seven and they’ll be eager to get back to their winning ways despite having to once again play without the services of big man Joel Embiid. The Pelicans didn’t have AD in the line-up in their upset win at home over the Lakers last time out and while the NO’s big man will be suited up this evening, one has to wonder where his overall effort level will be at this evening? Davis’s presence is awkward and I think it disrupts the chemistry. Note as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in all four road games it’s played in this year when the total is greater than or equal to 230, while NO’s has seen the total go under three of four already this season after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Pelicans. |
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02-24-19 | Spurs v. Knicks +8.5 | Top | 118-130 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Knicks (10* MONEY-MAKER) San Antonio has looked great at time this year. It’s also looked downright atrocious. Injuries have once again been an issue for Greg Popovich this season, but after their 120-117 road loss in Toronto last time out, I think that the Spurs have a mental letdown here. The Knicks have been a “work in progress” all year and that’s the case again tonight after their most recent 115-104 home loss to the Wolves. But San Antonio has been at its worst on the road and I think the hungry home side has a very real shot at an outright upset. The Spurs are just 1-5 during their current road trip. San Antonio is also only 4-6 ATS this year as a road favorite. I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 111-110 San Antonio. |
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02-23-19 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-125 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mavs/Jazz under (10* O/U BANKROLL BUILDER) This particular selection is based entirely around the fact that both teams played just last night. Dallas fell 114-104 at home to Denver, while the Jazz come in off a disheartening 148-147 loss at OKC. The last thing Utah will want to do is to turn this one into a “track meet” with the Mavericks after last night’s marathon. From a situational stand point, all signs definitely point to these two teams playing to a much more defensive and slower paced affair this evening. Note as well though that Dallas has seen the total go under in seven of its last nine road games following a home loss of ten points or more, while Utah has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 11 home games in the second game of a back to back after allowing 145 points or more in the first contest. This number is definitely high in my opinion considering the circumstances and ATS history. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 107-100 Utah. |
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02-22-19 | Nuggets v. Mavs +4 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dallas Mavericks (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the time off does the Mavs good and I believe the break came at a bad time for the Nuggets. Denver scored the 120-118 home win over the Kings in its final game before the All Star festivities. Dallas lost 112-101 at home to the Heat last Wednesday. Dallas plays with the added incentive of revenge here as well after falling 126-118 in Denver back on December 18th in the first meeting between the clubs. I believe the extra time off throws a monkey wrench into the Nuggets chemistry. The Mavs though can’t take anything for granted here after losing three of their last four. Note as well that Denver is just 1-4 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Mavericks. |
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02-21-19 | Heat +6.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Heat (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think Miami comes in under the radar here and takes advantage of a Philadelphia team which will be without the services of big man Joel Embiid. Miami enters off a 112-101 road win over Dallas on Wednesday, while the 76ers knocked off the Knicks 126-111 in their final game before the break. This is a revenge game though for the visitors after Embiid and company took care of business in Miami 124-114 back on November 12th. Miami comes in motivated as its locked in a tie for the eighth spot in the East currently. The Heat come in rested as well and note that they’re a money-making 12-7 ATS as a road underdog already this season. The 76ers come in undermanned and note that they’re a money-burning 5-9 ATS already this year after a blowout win by 15 points or more. T.M. Prediction: 110-109 Philadelphia. |
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02-13-19 | Rockets v. Wolves +3 | Top | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Timberwolves (10* TRADE-MARK) Houston is 4-1 in its last five, but it comes in off a loss to Dallas and I think it’ll stumble here against the hungry home side, which broke a four-game slide with a win over the Clippers in its most recent action. The Rockets have been playing fantastically overall of late, but one has to wonder how long James Harden can play at such a high level? If the diminutive shooter takes the foot off the gas for even a moment, then the Rockets are in trouble. The Wolves won the first matchup between the clubs 103-91 on December 3rd and clearly they also have a legitimate shot at taking this one outright as well. Houston is only 6-11 ATS as a road favorite this year, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog. T.M. Prediction: 117-113 Wolves. |
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02-12-19 | Lakers -5 v. Hawks | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Lakers (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) The Lakers hit a buzzer beater to sink the C’s in Boston, but they came out flat in the second half of their last game vs. the 76ers and got blown away in the end. With this much more “winnable” contest up next, I fully expect “The King” to bring his A game tonight and to take full advantage. The Hawks enter off a 124-108 home loss to Orlando. The Lakers won’t be taking anything for granted here either as when these teams met in LA back on November 11th, they barely escaped with the 107-106 victory. So far LA averages 112.2 PPG, while allowing 113.4. The Hawks average 110.9 PPG and they allow 118.5. I’ll point out though that the Lakers are still 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss, while Atlanta is interestingly only 7-20 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 126-110 Lakers. |
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02-10-19 | Heat +14.5 v. Warriors | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Heat (10* BLOOD-BATH) Miami upset the Blazers in Portland, but they’d run out of gas in a loss in Sacramento in its last outing. The Heat though come in “hungry” as they cling to the eighth spot in the East. The Warriors are off a 117-107 win at Phoenix, but I think they’ll suffer a bit of a letdown here vs. their lowly non-conference opponent today. The Warriors have big upcoming games against Western conference opponents Utah, Portland, Sacramento and Houston up next, so I think the home side also gets caught “looking ahead.” I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do absolutely feel that the stage is set for a very competitive battle. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 115-107 Warriors. |
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02-09-19 | Clippers +12 v. Celtics | Top | 123-112 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (10* MONEY-MAKER) LA came out flat in a 116-92 road loss in Indiana, but I believe this talented visiting side will bounce back with a much better effort here vs. a Celtics team which enters off a deflating 125-124 home loss the Lakers. And it was the way in which the C’s lost to the Lakers, as ex-Boston star Rajon Rondo would hit the game winning jumper with time winding off the clock. I absolutely believe that Boston will be still hung up on that game mentally. LA on the other hand comes in razor focused after losing four of its last six. Note as well that LA already 9-4 ATS this year off a road loss, while Boston is a terrible 8-12 ATS in non-conference games. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 115-110 Boston. |
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02-08-19 | Heat v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Sacramento Kings (10* TRADE-MARK) The Heat come in off a big road win over the Blazers and I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here vs. the up-tempo and hungry Kings, who are looking to bounce back after a loss to Houston in their most recent action. The Heat average 105.2 PPG and they allow 105.6. The Kings average 113.5 PPG and they allow 115.1. From a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the Kings in my opinion. Also note that Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Lay the points, expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 118-100 Kings. |
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02-07-19 | Raptors v. Hawks +9 | Top | 119-101 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: ATL Hawks (10* TRADE-MARK) I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Raptors look poised for a letdown here after their big 119-107 win at Philadelphia on Tuesday. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well, as Toronto has taken six straight in the series, including both this year. However, the Hawks are playing some of their best ball of the season right now and I believe they carry that momentum over here (just beat Washington 137-129 on the road!) Note that Toronto is just 2-6 ATS this year following a divisional contest, while the Hawks are 6-4 ATS in the same position and 4-1 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-115 Raptors. |
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02-06-19 | Spurs +11 v. Warriors | Top | 102-141 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs (10* TRADE-MARK) I got down on this one early and the line has since gone up after the news that the Spurs will be resting both DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. I’m stuck with the pick obviously, but I do think that the undermanned Spurs can keep this one interesting, against a Warriors team who will also be looking to get its starters a lot of rest after securing a lead. San Antonio had won five straight before a 127-112 loss at Sacramento, but I think it comes in “under the radar” here. The Warriors get caught looking past their opponent, complacent after winning ten of their last 11. San Antonio is still 15-8 ATS as an underdog this year, while GS is only 10-14 ATS as a home favorite. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Warriors. |
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02-05-19 | Lakers -3 v. Pacers | Top | 94-136 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Lakers (10* MONEY-MAKER) Despite all of the turmoil that some of the players have had with head coach Luke Walton and putting aside all of the supposed trade rumours for Anthony Davis, I think that LeBron James and company will find a way to get the job done on the road here against a Pacers team which continues to soldier on without its best player, Victor Oladipo, who was lost to injury. LA comes in focused after a 115-101 road loss to the Warriors, while the Pacers come in complacent after their big road in New Orleans just last night. Note that the Lakers beat the Pacers 104-96 back on November 29th and I think an even bigger blowout is in store this evening. Additionally note that the Pacers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. teams with winning SU records, while LA is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 117-100 LA. |
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02-04-19 | Nuggets v. Pistons +4 | Top | 103-129 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons (10* GAME OF WEEK) Denver’s won six straight, but I think it’ll have its hands full vs. the desperate Pistons team which enters off a poor setback at home to the Clippers. Detroit fell 111-101, but had the lead in that game for most of it. The Pistons now sit three games back for the eighth spot in the East. With much more “high profile” games upcoming against the Nets and Philadelphia during this Eastern swing, I also believe that this sets up as a look ahead spot for the visitors. Note as well that Denver is still only 5-8 ATS this year as a road favorite, while Detroit is 3-1 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. T.M. Prediction: 109-100 Pistons. |
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02-03-19 | Thunder v. Celtics -3 | Top | 129-134 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think the correct call here is on the home side. After seven straight victories, I believe the Thunder finally have a letdown in this difficult road arena. OKC comes in off a 118-102 road win over Miami, while Boston rolled to a 113-99 win over the Knicks on the road in their most recent action. Boston posted a 101-95 road victory in the first matchup this year and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards here. The Thunder have difficulty against the better defensive clubs, and the C’s have been strong at the end of the floor, allowing just 105.5 PPG (ranked fifth). The numbers support us here as well, as note that OKC is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Boston is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. teams with a winning road record. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 117-110 C’s. |
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02-02-19 | 76ers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Sacramento Kings (10* MONEY-MAKER) The 76ers are just 13-13 on the road. Note that Philadelphia is resting both Wilson Chandler and JJ Reddick in this contest, two of the team’s best shooters. Off a huge road win over the defending champs, can anyone say “letdown spot” here?! The Kings have been better than expected this season and they’ve been at their best at home (15-10). In fact Sacramento has won five straight at home, winning by at least seven points each time. Note as well that the Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last six at home, while Philly is just 2-5 ATS this year as a road favorite of six points or less. Clearly I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’ll grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 125-110 Kings. |
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02-01-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Charlotte Hornets (10* GAME OF MONTH) The Grizzlies enter off a deflating 99-97 OT road loss in Minnesota on Friday and think they’ll have their hands full here against a Hornets team also coming off a terrible road loss, falling 126-94 in Boston on Wednesday. But if recent history is any precedence, then for sure Charlotte has to be feeling confident here, because the first time these teams met in Memphis on January 23rd, the Hornets left with a convincing 118-107 road victory. The Grizz are just 10-16 ATS on the road overall this year. Memphis averages only 100.5 PPG, while allowing 103.8. Charlotte is 14-10 ATS at home and it averages 111.5 PPG, while allowing 111.4. Note as well that the Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. the West, while Memphis is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. the East. I’m laying the points and expecting a rout. T.M. Prediction: 108-98 Hornets. |
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01-31-19 | Pacers v. Magic -2 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic (10* TRADE MARK) No need to over think this one. The Magic have lost four straight, but they were competitive in a loss to the Thunder last time out. Orlando plays with revenge here though and it catches a Pacers team which was demolished in Washington just last night and which has lost three in a row itself. Indiana is tired and it’s playing out the rest of its season without its superstar Victor Oladipo, who was lost to injury. This one sets up beautifully for the home side, note as well that it’s 7-4 ATS in its last 11 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. T.M. Prediction: 111-100 Magic. |
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01-30-19 | Nuggets -8 v. Pelicans | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Pelicans posted an improbable 121-116 road victory in Houston last night without Anthony Davis in the line-up and I believe they’ll suffer a letdown here vs. the deep and talented Nuggets. Davis announced he won’t resign with New Orleans, but the Pelicans still managed to gut out a victory on the road in a difficult road venue. Can anyone say letdown spot?! Denver is tough on both ends of the floor and just held Memphis to 92 points in its most recent victory. After their big offensive outburst last night, I do indeed expect the Pelicans to take a predictable step back this evening. Note as well that Denver is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Everything points to a lop-sided destruction, so lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 117-100 Nuggets. |
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01-29-19 | Wizards v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Cavaliers (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Wizards look ripe for a letdown here in my estimation after their 132-119 loss in San Antonio on Sunday. Cleveland on the other hand looks poised to build off its confidence building 104-101 road win in Chicago over the weekend. These clubs have split two meetings and the Cavs won at home, 116-101 back on December 8th. The Wizards are a poor 7-18 ATS on the road. The Cavs are only 9-15 ATS at home, but note that they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight after a division game and 2-0 ATS in its last two off a road victory, while Washington is a disastrous 4-13 ATS this year after a non-conference contest. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Cavs. |
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01-28-19 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Memphis Grizzlies (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Nuggets have emerged as one of the best teams in the league. When healthy the Nuggets are going to be able to compete with any team. They come into this one having won five of their last six. Denver averages 112 PPG and it allows 106.2. The Grizzlies broke an eight-game slide vs. the Pacers last time out and I think they’ll build off that effort with another decent performance here. Memphis has struggled offensively this year averaging only 100.8 PPG, but it’s been sharp defensively in allowing only 104. Note that Denver is still just 9-13 ATS on the road this season (and only 2-7 ATS vs. the Southwest division), while Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing four consecutive home games. I’m banking on a competitive affair, so grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 105-104 Grizzlies. |
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01-27-19 | Raptors -4 v. Mavs | Top | 123-120 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-MAKER) Toronto comes in off back-to-back losses. The Mavericks come in off back-to-back wins. When these teams played North of the border back on October 26th, it was the Raptors though who came out on top 116-107. I believe that the 36-15 Raptors enter this one as the “hungrier” team vs. the 22-26 Mavericks. This is simply a bad match-up for Dallas, as Toronto comes to town healthy for the first time in a long time. Toronto averages 113.9 PPG and it allows 108.5. Dallas averages 109.4 PPG and it allows 109.3. Clearly the margin for error is pretty slim most nights for the Mavs. Additionally note that Toronto is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive road losses, while Dallas is a poor 4-8 ATS this season trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 120-100 Toronto. |
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01-26-19 | Hawks +10.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Hawks (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I like the improving visiting side to sneak in under the radar and through the back door down the stretch. ATL enters off a confidence building 121-101 road win in Chicago on Wednesday, while Portland comes in off a 120-106 road win over the Suns. The Hawks average 109.9 PPG and they allow 117.5. The Blazers average 112.6 PPG and they allow 110.1. I think Atlanta will have its chances here to match pace offensively. Note as well that the Hawks are already 10-4 ATS in their last 14 as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-112 Portland. |
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01-25-19 | Kings v. Grizzlies | Top | 99-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Memphis Grizzlies (10* TRADE-MARK) The Kings come in off a 120-105 road loss in Toronto on Tuesday. The Grizzlies enter off a 118-107 home loss to Charlotte. The Grizzlies though play with revenge here as Sacramento has taken two of three in the series already between the clubs, including a 102-99 victory in the most recent at home on December 21st. The Kings though are now just 1-3 on their current road trip. Overall Sacramento is just 11-13 ATS on the road. The Kings average 113.4 PPG, and they allow 115.3. The Grizz are only 10-13 ATS at home and while Marc Gasol and Mike Conley could be on the move shortly, I still think this one favors the hungry home side. Note that Memphis is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Play on the Grizz. T.M. Prediction: (FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY) |
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01-24-19 | Wolves v. Lakers +1.5 | Top | 120-105 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Lakers (10* TRADE-MARK) This is the fourth time these teams will have met this year and the Wolves own the 2-1 advantage thus far. I think the home side evens that record tonight though. Note that the Lakers won the only game at the Staples Center so far 114-110. Minnesota has been hit or miss all year, but more miss than hit on the road, going 7-16 SU and 10-13 ATS. The Lakers are only 10-14-1 ATS at home, but they’re a solid 15-10 SU. I think the home side finds a way to get the job done here. T.M. Prediction: 116-113 Lakers. |
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01-23-19 | Cavs +16.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-123 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Cavaliers (10* MONEY-MAKER). Of course I’m not predicting an outright upset, but I do definitely expect the Celtics come out flat here and even rest some of their starters vs. the lowly Cavs. Cleveland won’t be lacking for motivation today as it’s lost four straight and 16 of its last 17. Not surprisingly this is a “revenge” game as well for Cleveland after it fell 128-95 in the first meeting between the clubs back on November 30th. The Cavs are 12-10-1 ATS in their last 23 on the road. The C’s have had a lot of success at home this season, but note that they’re just 33-34 ATS in their last 77 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. Note that the Cavs have already dominated in this spot for bettors this year as well, going 10-3 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four vs. the spread. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-106 C’s. |
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01-22-19 | Wolves -6 v. Suns | Top | 118-91 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Timberwolves (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) These teams played in Minnesota on Sunday night and the Wolves escaped with the 116-114 win. I believe that Minnesota will put the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one though. These clubs have now split two games this season. The Wolves average 111.6 PPG and they allow 112. The Suns come in reeling after four straight losses. Phoenix is just 11-13 ATS at home and it averages 106.3 PPG, while allowing 115. Additionally note that Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. teams with a losing home record, while Phoenix is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight when playing on one days rest. I’m laying the points. T.M. Prediction: 120-108 Wolves. |
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