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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-16-18 | Cincinnati v. UCF +7.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (524) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (523). Central Florida (12-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 62-53 win at UConn as a 1-point underdog. The Knights made just 36.5% of their shots which was their worst offensive effort in their last eleven games. They scored only 21 first-half points against the Huskies — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after failing to score more than 25 points in the first-half of their last game. This Central Florida team has rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread setback. Head coach Johnny Dawkins’ team plays outstanding defense — they rank 4th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (according to kenpom.com) and they have not allowed more than 65 points all season. They are led by their 7’6 junior Tacko Fall who leads the nation with a 76.8% shooting percentage while scoring 11.6 PPG along with 7.2 RPG and 2.0 Blocks-Per-Game. The team may also see the return of B.J. Taylor who was the team’s leading scorer at 17.4 PPG last year. Taylor has been nursing a broken foot and has yet to play this season — he will be a game-time decision for Dawkins. Returning home will help for this Knights team that is 8-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +9.0 PPG. Offense has been an issue for this team — but they are scoring 71.2 PPG at home with a solid 47.9% shooting percentage. The UCF defense at home is outstanding as they hold their opponents to just 60.2 PPG along with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 37.9%. The Knights have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on their home court — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. And in their last 8 home games after winning three of their last four games, UCF has covered the point spread all 8 times. |
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01-15-18 | Kansas v. West Virginia -5 | 71-66 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (748) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (747). West Virginia (15-2) looks to bounce-back from their 72-71 loss at Texas Tech on Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog. Now the Mountaineers return home where they are a perfect 9-0 with an average winning margin of +26.5 PPG. This West Virginia team is playing outstanding defense — they are holding their visitors to just 60.1 PPG on low 38.1% shooting. This defense has helped the Mountaineers to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia has also covered the point spread in 8 straight games at home with the Total set in the 155 to 159.5 point range. Bob Huggins teams are so tough because they do a great job of creating additional scoring opportunities even if their shots are not falling. Led by senior defensive whiz Jevon Carter, this team is 2nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 27.1% of their opponent’s possessions. The Mountaineers also pull down 36.7% of their missed shots which is 9th best in the nation. This is an area of vulnerability for the Jayhawks as they allow their opponents to rebound 30.5% of their missed shots which is 238th in the nation. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 5 games against Big 12 opponents, the Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Furthermore, this team finally has their 6’8 forward Esa Ahmad back after he was suspended by the NCAA for the first-half of the season. He played 34 minutes in his first game back against Texas Tech and scored 18 points. |
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01-15-18 | Cleveland State v. Northern Kentucky -17.5 | 55-70 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (736) minus the points versus the Cleveland State Vikings (735). Northern Kentucky (11-6) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 84-81 loss to Wright State despite being a 10.5-point favorite. The Norse allowed the Raiders to make 55.8% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Norse have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. Northern Kentucky has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. That was the first loss of the season for the Norse on their home court where they are 7-1 with an average winning margin of a whopping +30.0 PPG. Northern Kentucky scores 88.4 PPG at home with a 51.2% shooting mark while limiting their visitors to just 58.4 PPG on low 38.5% shooting. The Norse are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games on their home court. Northern Kentucky has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Additionally, the Norse have covered the point spread in 8 straight home games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. I tend to avoid taking favorites that are laying close to 20 points — but baskets should be easy to come by for this Northern Kentucky team tonight. They rank 15th in the nation by making 57.2% of the shots inside the arc — and they are facing a Vikings team that ranks 314th by allowing their opponents to make 55% of their 2-point shots. The Norse have covered 4 straight home games when laying at least 12 points. |
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01-13-18 | Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State OVER 140.5 | 64-82 | Win | 100 | 1 h 60 m | Show | |
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (681) and the North Dakota State Bison (682). North Dakota State (9-8) has lost two of their last three games with their 67-61 upset loss to Denver as an 11-point favorite. The Bison have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. This North Dakota State team stays at home where they have played 10 of their last 13 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140-149.5 point range. The Bison have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. |
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01-12-18 | St. Peter's v. Canisius -4 | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Canisius Golden Griffins (844) minus the points versus the St. Peter’s Peacocks (843). Canisius (9-8) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 65-62 loss at Siena as a 5-point favorite. The Golden Griffins have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Canisius has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Golden Griffins return home where they are 5-1 while shooting 49.7% from the field. Canisius is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and this includes covering the point spread in four straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. |
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01-12-18 | Marquette v. Butler -5 | Top | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (822) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (821). Butler (12-6) has lost three straight games with their 85-74 loss at Creighton on Tuesday as a 6-point underdog. The Bulldogs allowed the Blue Jays to make 54.1% of their shots in what was their worst defensive effort of the season. This has been a very difficult stretch in Big East play for this Butler team that was riding high after they upset the number-one ranked Villanova team (at the time) by a 101-93. They have since lost to Xavier, Seton Hall and Creighton that all rank in the Top-35 in the kenpom.com rankings system. The Bulldogs are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. And while Butler has not covered the point spread in these last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Now this team returns home where they are 9-1 with an average winning margin of +19.7 PPG. The Bulldogs shoot 53.6% from the field at home which translates into 88.0 PPG — and they hold their opponents to just 42.4% shooting on their home court. Butler has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. |
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01-11-18 | California +9.5 v. Washington | 56-66 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
At 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (573) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (574). California (7-9) has lost two straight games with their 107-84 loss to UCLA last Saturday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Bruins made 58.2% of their shots in that victory in what was the worst defensive effort for the Golden Bears all season. Expect a much better defensive effort from Cal in this one. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Cal has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Golden Bears had previously allowed 80 points in their loss to USC — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after allowing at least 80 points in two straight games. And in their last 42 road games after losing two straight games, Cal has covered the point spread in 29 of these contests. The Golden Bears do hold their opponents to just a 44.1% shooting percentage when on the road. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home — and they have covered the point spread in four straight road games against teams with a winning percentage on their home court. |
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01-11-18 | Stanford v. Washington State +2 | 79-70 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (546) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (545). Stanford (8-8) pulled off two straight upset victories last week as they stunned UCLA by a 107-99 getting three points before upsetting USC by a 77-76 score as a 5-point underdog Sunday night on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer. But both of those games were at home — and now the Cardinal goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. Stanford has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinal are winless in their four road games this season with an average losing margin of -11.5 PPG. This is their first road game in six contests going all the way back to December 3rd — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games after playing at least three straight games at home. Additionally, Stanford is just 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games on the road. And in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Cardinal has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of these contests. |
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01-11-18 | Weber State v. Northern Colorado -5 | 78-74 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Northern Colorado Bears (606) minus the points versus the Weber State Wildcats (605). Northern Colorado (11-6) has lost two straight games after their 89-80 loss at Montana as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Bears allowed the Grizzlies to make 50.9% of their shots which was their worst defensive mark in their last four contests. Northern Colorado has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Now after playing on the road for those last two setbacks, Northern Colorado returns home where they are 6-1 with an average winning margin of +17.2 PPG. The Bears are scoring 85.6 PPG on their home court while making 49.2% of their shots. Northern Colorado has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, the Bears are 8-2-1 ATS. |
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01-11-18 | Denver v. North Dakota State OVER 138 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Pioneers (587) and the North Dakota State Bison (588). North Dakota State (9-7) has won four of their last five games with their 84-79 upset win at South Dakota as an 8-point underdog. The Bison nailed 52.8% of their shots in that win — and that momentum may very well carry over into tonight’s game. North Dakota State has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And with that game with the Coyotes ending far above the 142.5 point total in that game, the Bison have now played a decisive 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total against fellow Summit League members. North Dakota State stays at home for this contest where they are shooting a slick 52.6% from the field. The Bison have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played eight of their last nine home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Defense is an issue for this team as they are allowing Summit foes to make 47% of their shots. Additionally, North Dakota State has played 6 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. |
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01-11-18 | South Dakota -1 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 68-58 | Win | 100 | 1 h 55 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Dakota Coyotes (585) minus the point(s) versus the IUPU-Fort Wayne Mastodons (586). South Dakota (14-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 84-79 loss to North Dakota State as an 8-point favorite. The Coyotes allowed the Bison to shoot 52.8% from the field in that game which was their worst defensive effort in their last nine games. Look for a strong game tonight from this South Dakota team that has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after an upset loss at home as a home favorite. The Coyotes have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 6-4 while outscoring their opponents by +7.1 PPG. South Dakota is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Coyotes have also covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set in the 155 to 159.5 point range. Furthermore, South Dakota is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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01-10-18 | Colorado v. USC -11 | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (782) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (781). USC (11-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their heartbreaking 77-76 upset loss at Stanford as a 5-point favorite. The Trojans appeared to have one the game with a last season shot — but the Cardinal responded by hitting a buzzer 3-pointer to steal that game. USC has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Now the Trojans return home where they are 6-3 with an average winning margin of +10.6 PPG. USC has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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01-10-18 | LSU v. Arkansas -8 | Top | 75-54 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (776) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (775). Arkansas (11-4) has lost two straight games after their 88-77 loss at Auburn last Saturday as a 4-point underdog. The Razorbacks have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Arkansas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Razorbacks return home where they are a perfect 8-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.6 PPG. The Arkansas offense cranks out 95.0 PPG on their home court while making 53.7% of their shots. They limit their opponents to just 41.7% shooting. The Razorbacks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. This team ranks 27th in the nation by making 39.7% from the field — and that number rises to a 41.2% mark when they are playing at home. |
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01-10-18 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -3 | 82-86 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (762) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (761). Kansas State (11-4) has lost two straight games after their 74-58 loss at Texas Tech on Saturday. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two straight games to fellow Big 12 opponents. And while Kansas State managed to score only 22 points in the first half of that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. The Wildcats also allowed the Red Raiders to make 58.5% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the season. Kansas State has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. The Wildcats are 7-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +19.9 PPG. They make a healthy 47.6% of their shots on their home court while liming their visitors to only 58.5 PPG on low 37.1% shooting. Furthermore, in their last 7 games against fellow Big 12 opponents, Kansas State has covered the point spread 5 times. |
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01-10-18 | Green Bay +7.5 v. Illinois-Chicago | 73-84 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (757) plus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (758). Green Bay (7-11) has lost three straight games with their 85-74 loss at Youngstown State last Saturday. The Phoenix have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing their last two contests. Green Bay has allowed at least 80 points in each of their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last two games. And while the Phoenix are just 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last game. Now this Green Bay team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Phoenix have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 140-149.5 point range — and this includes covering the point spread in ten of their last fourteen games on the road with the Total set in that point range. |
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01-10-18 | Youngstown State v. Oakland -14.5 | 82-95 | Loss | -107 | 0 h 24 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (744) minus the points versus the Youngstown State Penguins (743). Oakland (9-8) suffered their third straight upset loss as a favorite on Sunday with their 86-81 loss at home to Wright State despite being a 7.5-point favorite. The Grizzlies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. And while Oakland has scored 80 points in at least three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 80 points in at least two straight games. The Grizzlies have seen their last two opponents commit 22 and 23 personal fouls in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after seeing their last two opponents commit at least 22 personal fouls in two straight games. Oakland stays at home where they are 6-2 the season with an average winning margin of +10.2 PPG — and they are making 49% of their shots. They shot only 35.7% from the field agains the Raiders on Sunday which was their worst shooting effort in their last six contests. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after suffering two straight losses on their home court. The Jaguars may be just what the doctor ordered as Oakland is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with this team. |
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01-09-18 | Ball State +1.5 v. Ohio | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (521) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (522). Ball State (10-5) saw their nine-game winning streak snapped last Friday in their 83-63 loss to Buffalo as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals shot just 36.5% from the field which was their worst shooting effort of the season. Ball State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Cardinals have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Now Ball State goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games. And in their last 6 games against fellow Mid-American Conference opponents, the Cardinals are 4-1-1 ATS. 20* CBB Don't Need the Points Underdog Special on Ball State. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
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01-05-18 | Akron v. Toledo -8.5 | 65-67 | Loss | -102 | 0 h 16 m | Show | |
At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (822) minus the points versus the Akron Zips (821). Toledo (8-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 104-94 loss at Buffalo. The Rockets allowed the Bulls to make 53.8% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Toledo did make 54.1% of their shots in that game which was the third straight time they hit at least 52.6% of their shots — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after making at least 50% of their shots in at least two straight games. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Rockets return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games after playing at least three straight at home. Toledo is 5-2 at home w— and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games laying 6.5 to 12 points. And in their last 11 games against Mid-American Conference opponents, the Rockets have covered the point spread 8 times. |
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01-03-18 | Wyoming v. Nevada -11.5 | 83-92 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
At 10:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (788) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (787). Wyoming (10-4) has won four of their last fie games with their 82-69 upset win over San Diego State last Thursday as a 3-point underdog. But the Cowboys have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. Wyoming has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games after a win at home. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 3-3 with an average losing margin of -3.3 PPG. The Cowboys are making just 38.7% of their shots on the road. 3-point defense is also a big concern for this team as they rank 253rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 36.8% of their 3-point shots. They will be facing one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation in this Wolf Pack team that is making 41.9% of their 3-pointers which is 7th best in the nation. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Nevada. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread 4 times. |
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01-02-18 | Florida v. Texas A&M -2 | 83-66 | Loss | -106 | 0 h 7 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (552) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (551). Texas A&M (11-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday as a 1-point underdog. The Aggies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Texas A&M has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Now the Aggies return home where they are a perfect 7-0 with an average winning margin of +20.2 PPG. Texas A&M holds their guests to just a 36.1% shooting percentage. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. |
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01-02-18 | Butler v. Xavier -6.5 | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 0 h 15 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Xavier Musketeers (514) minus the Butler Bulldogs (513). Butler (12-3) has won four straight games after their triumphant 101-93 upset win over Villanova on Saturday as a 6-point underdog. The Bulldogs enjoyed their best shooting game of the season by making 60% of their shots. But a letdown for this team is likely now going on the road. Butler has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points. The Bulldogs now go on the road where they are just 3-3 while being beaten by -6.1 net PPG. Butler shoots just 39.9% from the field when playing on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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01-02-18 | Hofstra v. Northeastern OVER 149.5 | Top | 71-70 | Loss | -110 | 0 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Hofstra Pride (525) and the Northeastern Huskies (526). Hofstra (7-6) has lost three straight games after their 90-87 loss at William & Mary on Saturday as a 2-point underdog. The Pride have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now Hofstra stays on the road where they have played 5 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Pride allow their home hosts to make 50.6% of their shots. That is one of the reasons why they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6 or less points. |
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12-29-17 | Louisville v. Kentucky -5 | 61-90 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (820) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (819). Louisville (10-2) has won six straight games after their 74-56 win over Grand Canyon in a non-boarded game back on December 23rd. The Cardinals have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The best wins this team has enjoyed this season was against middling Indiana and Memphis teams. Their two losses were at Purdue and Seton Hall — so the jury is still out as to whether or not this team can close to the same under interim head coach David Padgett versus the sacked Rick Pitino. Louisville has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have been favored in their last six boarded games which were all against non-ranked opponents. The Cardinals have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games after being favored for at least three straight games. This team has played only two true road games — and they are shooting just 38.7% on the road overall so far this season. Furthermore, Louisville has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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12-25-17 | Akron v. Davidson UNDER 149.5 | Top | 78-91 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (711) and the Davidson Wildcats (712) in the Diamond’s Head Classic. This game first consolation match on the last day of this holiday tournament in Hawai’i will be played at 7:30 AM local time to accommodate the early afternoon tipoff on the east coast for the ESPNU national audience. Expect both teams to be a bit sluggish for this one. Akron (6-4) has lost two straight games after their 64-62 loss to Princeton on Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Zips have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Akron has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. Furthermore, the Zips have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference. And in their last 21 road games against non-conference foes, Akron has played 15 of these games Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court, the Zips have played 6 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-23-17 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -6.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (552) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (551). North Carolina (10-2) may have received the wake-up call they were needing as defending champions as they were upset at home on Wednesday by Wofford by a 79-75 score despite being a 25-point favorite. The Tar Heels settled for too many outside shots which they happened to be missing all night. North Carolina shot only 36.4% from the field which included just 14 of 30 from inside the arc (43.3%) and only 7 of their 25 shots from 3-point land (28%). The Tar Heels also only pulled down nine offensive rebounds for a 25% rate — and that suggests a lack of effort — which was far below their 36.6% offensive rebounding rate which is 17th best in the nation. North Carolina should work harder in this high-profile contest. This team has the potential to get back to the Final Four (and beyond) — and what they do better than last year’s team is make 3-pointers. So far this season, the Tar Heels are making 38.3% of their shots from downtown which is much better than their 35.5% mark from last year’s Championship team. Head coach Roy Williams used the loss to the Terriers to get his team’s attention — so expect them to work harder, crash the glass and focus on taking a better shots. As it is, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after suffering an upset loss as a favorite laying at least 12 points. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after a loss on their home court. Additionally, North Carolina is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Moving forward, the Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite laying 6.5 to 9 points. |
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12-22-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Oakland -7 | Top | 81-86 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oakland Grizzlies (836) minus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (835). Oakland (7-5) will be looking to avenge a 95-89 loss at Eastern Michigan back on December 6th. The Grizzlies have won two of their last three games since that loss with their lone setback being a gritty 13-point loss to a might Michigan State team on a neutral court. Oakland has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games when looking to avenge a loss to their opponents. The Grizzlies come off a 97-86 loss to Towson State back on December 20th as a 4.5-point favorite — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Oakland is also 42-15-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up win. And in their last 15 games after scoring at least 90 points, the Grizzlies are 10-4-1 ATS. Oakland gets this rematch at home where they are a perfect 5-0 with season while outscoring their opponents by +14.2 PPG. This up-tempo Grizzlies team scores 89.6 PPG on 51.2% shooting. Oakland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. |
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12-09-17 | Cincinnati v. Florida UNDER 148 | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Florida Gators. Cincinnati (7-1) looks to bounce-back from their 89-76 loss at Xavier as a 2.5-point underdog. The Bearcats have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Cincinnati has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, the Bearcats have seen the Under go 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Florida (5-3) has lost three straight games themselves with their 65-59 loss to Loyola-Illinois as a 17-point favorite. The Gators have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank. Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* CBB Hall of Fame Classic Game of the Year on USC last night to further a 19 of 26 (73%) CBB Game of the Year/Month mark! Frank then TIPPED OFF his Saturday by CA$HING on Michigan minus the points versus UCLA to further a RED HOT 36 of 52 (69%) College Basketball run going back to Frank’s OUTSTANDING MARCH MADNESS last season — and that now includes a SCORCHING 18 of 24 (75%) CBB Side run! Now Frank UNLEASHES his 25* CBB Never Forget Tribute Classic Tournament Game of the Year for the Cincinnati-Florida ATS winner on ESPN2! WATCH & WIN — and DON’T MISS OUT! |
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12-09-17 | Cincinnati v. Florida +2 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (808)plus the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (807). Florida (5-3) has lost three straight games after suffering an upset loss to Loyola-Illinois as a big 17-point favorite by 65-59 score back on Wednesday. The Gators were riding high with a win over Gonzaga that they followed up with a gritty but narrow loss to Duke on a neutral court two weeks ago. But then Florida got blown out by 17 points on their home court to Florida State before their loss to the Ramblers. The problems for the Gators are pretty simple to dissect: they have not been able to hit the side of the barn in their last two games while not passing the ball enough to find good shots. Florida made only 2 of their 19 shots from behind the arc against Loyola-Illinois. Over their last three games, they are shooting just 36.6% from the field while making only 8 of their 44 shots from behind the arc for an 18.2% shooting mark. They also have a terrible 14 assists in those three games while committing 25 turnovers which played a role in them not covering the point spread in three straight games. Additionally, Loyola-Illinois made 52% of their shots which is the second best effort any team has shot against the Gators this season. Yes, I am expecting a big bounce back from this team that returned four key pieces from the group that made a run to the Elite Eight last year while adding two solid transfers from Power Five Conference schools. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after getting upset in two straight games as the favorite. And while they managed only 7 assists against the Ramblers, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to register at least 9 assists in their last game. Florida is leading all SEC teams with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.6. In fact, the Gators only turn the ball in 13.4% of their possessions (4th in the nation) which should frustrate this Bearcats team that forces turnovers in 23.2% of their opponent’s possessions which is 32nd in the nation. Florida should find their stroke again — they make 48.6% of their shots when away from home and they are nailing a healthy 39.7% of their shots from behind the arc overall. This game is being played on a neutral court in Newark, New Jersey — and the Gators have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing on a neutral court as an underdog getting 3 points or less. Additionally, Florida has covered the point spread in a decisive 71 of their last 119 situations when the game is listed in the +/- 3-point range including twelve of the last nineteen. |
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12-09-17 | UCLA v. Michigan -6 | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 0 h 19 m | Show | |
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (734) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (733). UCLA (7-1) enters this game coming off a 106-73 win over Detroit as a 21.5-point favorite. But the Bruins have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, UCLA has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 5 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game, the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games. This is a tough situation for this retooled UCLA team as they are playing their first true road game — and it is on the East Coast for an early Noon tip off where it will be feel like 9 AM for their players. As it is, the Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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12-08-17 | Colorado State v. Oregon -15 | 65-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (520) minus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (519). Oregon (5-3) has lost three of their last four games after being upset on their home court last Friday by Boise State despite being a 7-point favorite. The Ducks only return one starter in guard Payton Pritchard from last year’s first five that made it to the Final Four last season. But in head coach Dana Altman we trust — especially when the game is in Eugene. Altman has a 5-star freshman recruit who can play multiple positions with the 6’7 Tony Brown and he also brought in two solid graduate transfer players in Elijah Brown from New Mexico and MiKyke McIntosh from Illinois State. Oregon is 4-1 on their home court where they are outscoring their opponents by +25.6 PPG due to a power offense that scores 89.9 PPG on 51.3% shooting. The Ducks also hold their visitors to just 35.2% shooting. Oregon has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games on their home court. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Oregon has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 31 games when favored by double-digits, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 21 of these games. |
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12-05-17 | Gonzaga v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (730) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (729). Gonzaga (7-1) was expected to take a step or two back this season after losing four key players from the team that lost in the National Championship Game to North Carolina last April. The Bulldogs lost their two big men in Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins along with their best player in point guard Nigel Williams-Goss and starter Jordan Matthews which is simply a ton of talent even for elite program like Duke or Kentucky. Two starters in Johnathan Williams and Josh Perkins along with two players in the regular rotation of minutes return from last year’s team — but expectations have risen pretty quickly for this team once again. Gonzaga has two nice wins against Texas and Creighton while their only loss was a brutal defeat in double-overtime to an excellent Florida team. But the early returns may have this team feeling pretty, pretty, pretty good about themselves relative to the experienced talent on their roster. My read is that this is an overrated team right now — which offers us nice value in this non-conference showdown. The Bulldogs enter this game coming off a 91-74 win over Creighton on December 1st as a 9-point favorite. Gonzaga has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games. The Bulldogs shot 54.4% from the field against the Blue Jays’ often wavering defense — and this was exactly the same mark they shot in their last game against Incarnate Word. But Gonzaga has then failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 84 of their last 142 games after shooting at least 50% in their last two games under head coach Mark Few. The concern for Few has to be 3-point defense as opponents are making 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc which is 285th worst in the nation. Creighton made 12 shots from downtown against the Bulldogs which makes this matchup with Villanova a bit scary. This Gonzaga team is doing a good job of crashing the offensive glass as they are rebounding 35.8% of their missed shots — but the Wildcats are 17th in the nation by limiting their opponents to rebounding only 22.3% of their missed shots. |
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12-04-17 | Wisconsin v. Penn State -5 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -115 | 0 h 25 m | Show |
Hollywood Sports’ 25* CBB BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH |
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11-29-17 | Duke -8.5 v. Indiana | Top | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (765) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (766). Duke (8-0) is absolutely loaded with talent this season — this as an impressive a Blue Devils team as I have seen in many years. They should overwhelm this Hoosiers team that is in a major rebuilding mode after Tom Crean was let go and three of his players left the program to take their chances in the professional ranks. Duke did not play particularly well Sunday night but did what they needed to do to rally from an early 15-point lead and then another 14-point deficit with under 10 minutes to go to take an 87-84 victory. The Blue Devils only shot 43.9% from the field — but they did make 10 of their 23 shots from the 3-point line (43.5%). Frankly, this team is like the big and powerful North Carolina teams of the last few seasons — except this team will shoot and make more 3-pointers. 6’11 freshman Marvin Bagley deserves the hype he is receiving — he averaged 26.5 PPG while pulling down 13.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in four games last week. He is joined by 6’10 freshman Wendell Carter to give this team incredible size down low. The Blue Devils lead the nation by pulling down 43.2% of their missed shots. Mike Krzyzewski has embraced shot volume as his team’s defining characteristic — and that has helped them lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency so far this season. Look for Duke to build off this momentum as they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Blue Devils have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Big Ten opponents. Additionally, Duke is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in the last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Blue Devils are 6-0-1 ATS. |
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11-22-17 | Eastern Kentucky v. Eastern Washington UNDER 145 | 62-83 | Push | 0 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
At 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (569) and the Eastern Washington Eagles (570). This game is the opening game of the loser’s bracket of the MGM Grand Main Event right here in Las Vegas — and take note of the 11 AM PT local time tip for these two teams. These early tips often see at least one of the teams still trying to overcome morning lethargy. Eastern Kentucky (2-2) enters this game coming off an 80-70 upset loss to Prairie View A&M on Monday as a 10-point underdog. The Colonels have then played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Eastern Kentucky has also played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Colonels saw Prairie View A&M make 48% of their shots which was their worst defensive performance of this young season — so expect a better effort on that end of the court this afternoon. Eastern Kentucky did make 30 of their 36 free throw attempts in that last game for a crisp 83.3% clip at the charity stripe. But the Colonels have then played 35 of their last 55 road games Under the Total after making at least 78% of their free throws in their last game. Additionally Eastern Kentucky has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total as the underdog. |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 154 | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
At 9:20 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (601) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (602). North Carolina (32-7) returns to the NCAA Championship Game after they survived a 77-76 win over Oregon on Saturday night. The Tar Heels won this game with defense as they held the Ducks to just 37.9% shooting while making only 36.8% of their own shots. Surprisingly, North Carolina made 8 of 21 shots from behind the arc for a 38.1% clip which was much better than the 30% mark from downtown they had put up in their three previous NCAA Tourney games. It was missing 30 of their 47 shots inside the arc for a subpar 36.2% clip that hampered the Tar Heels’ offense. Expect more clanks off the rim from both teams given the pressure of the moment. As it is, the Under is 10-3-1 in North Carolina’s last 14 games after a straight-up win. The Tar Heels have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in a week. Moving forward, they will be facing a Gonzaga team that is best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while allowing only 61.2 PPG. North Carolina has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Bulldogs also commit only 17 personal fouls per game — and the Tar Heels have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams that do not commit more than 17 personal fouls per game. |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga +1.5 | Top | 71-65 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (602) plus the point(s) versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (601). North Carolina (32-7) looked very shaky down the stretch against Oregon on Saturday but managed to hang on for a 77-76 victory. That ended up being a very close game despite the Ducks making only 37.9% of their shots. The Tar Heels also made 8 of their 21 shots from the 3-point line for a 38.1% clip which was above their 36.2% season-average. But North Carolina made only 17 of their 47 shots inside the arc for a low 36.2% mark. Over their last three games, the Tar Heels are shooting just 40% from the field. These are all very concerning trends for a team that has shown a proclivity all season to blow leads when away from Chapel Hill this season. Furthermore, point guard Joel Berry II still looked to be hobbled with his two twisted ankles Saturday night despite having six days to recuperate. Over his last six games going back to the ACC Tournament, Berry II has made only 20 of his 68 shots. North Carolina is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And in their last 4 games as a favorite laying less than 7 points, the Tar Heels are just 0-3-1 ATS. |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5 | 76-77 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
At 8:45 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (814) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (813). Oregon (33-5) held Kansas to just 35% shooting which helped them secure a 74-60 victory last Saturday. Kansas may have been due for a big letdown in their shooting after scoring 288 points in their three previous NCAA Tournament games. The Ducks reached the Final Four despite the season-ending injury to their big man and room protector Chris Boucher. But this Oregon team has been fortunate to draw four teams in Iona, Rhode Island, Michigan and Kansas who were all perimeter dominated teams. Frankly, there could not have been a worse opponent for this Ducks’ team to face then this North Carolina team with their dominating front court. The Tar Heels make 51.5% of their shots inside the arc — and the Ducks have allowed their four NCAA Tourney opponents to make 53% of their 2-point shots. Oregon has been fortunate that their Tournament foes have made just 31% of their shots inside the arc. Tyler Dorsey may also be getting a visit from the Regression Gods considering he is making 65% of his 3-point shots and 68% of his 2-point shots in this tournament. The Ducks are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Oregon has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 1501-159.5 point range. |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina UNDER 153.5 | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:45 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (813) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (814). Oregon (33-5) held Kansas to just 35% from the field en route to their 74-60 win last Saturday. The Ducks flexed their defensive muscles in that game by holding a potent Jayhawks offense that had averaged 96 PPG in their three previous Tournament games to scoring just those 60 points in 64 possessions. In the Ducks’ four tournament games, they have averaged 66 possessions so it is likely that head coach Dana Altman will look to slow this game down where both teams do not have more than 65 possessions apiece — and that makes the Under look rather appetizing with the Total set in the low 150s. Oregon has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. The Ducks have also played 12 of their last 14 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150-159.5 point range. And while the Tar Heels average 66 shots per game, Oregon has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that average at least 62 shots per game — and that includes 7 straight Unders when those games are the road. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga UNDER 137.5 | 73-77 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
At 6:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Carolina Gamecocks (811) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). South Carolina (26-10) held Florida to just 41.7% shooting en route to their 77-70 victory last Sunday as 3-point underdogs in that game. The Gamecocks have then played a decisive 45 of their last 64 games Under the Total after a point spread victory — and that includes the Under cashing tickets in thirteen of their last eighteen games after a point spread win. Frank Martin’s team will look to make this game into a grind. While the Bulldogs hold their opponents to just a 36.5% shooting mark, South Carolina has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or less. Furthermore, the Gamecocks have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC. South Carolina has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog. And in their last 34 games as an underdog getting less than 7 points, the Under is 25-8-1 for the Gamecocks. |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
At 6:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (811). South Carolina (26-10) has pulled off three straight upsets in this NCAA Tournament — but expect for their bubble to burst tonight as they look more like the team that lost six of their last nine games before this Tournament started. These Gamecocks have covered the point spread in all four of their NCAA Tournament games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of the last six games. Somehow this team is scoring at a crisp 1.16 Points-Per-Possession rate which is well above their 1.00 PPP rate in SEC play. Frankly, even if this Gamecocks team was not a prime candidate to get a visit from the Regression Gods, this is just a terrible matchup for them. The Bulldogs out-rebound their opponents by +7.0 RPG — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 24 games after fifteen games into the season against team who out-rebound their opponents by at least +4.0 RPG. Gonzaga also holds their opponents to just 60.9 PPG — but the Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not allow more than 64 PPG. And while the Bulldogs commit only 17 personal fouls per game, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of the last 17 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who do not commit more than 17 personal fouls per game. To make things worse, Gonzaga has worked on pressure defenses for a full two weeks given their Sweet Sixteen matchup with West Virginia and now a full week to digest that game tape while preparing for the Gamecocks’ pressure. |
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03-31-17 | St. Peter's v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi +4.5 | 62-61 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders (526) plus the points versus the St. Peter’s Peacocks (525). Texas A&M Corpus Christi (24-11) reached the Finals of the College Insider Tournament with their 79-61 win at Maryland-Baltimore County on Wednesday despite being a 2-point underdog in their gym. The Islanders have now covered the point spread in 4 straight boarded games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 straight boarded games against teams outside their Southland Conference. And while they opened as a small 1.5-point favorite, Texas A&M Corpus Christi now sees themselves as an underdog in the 4-point range. Yet this team has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 boarded games when getting less than 7 points. The Islanders are not used to losing on their home court where they won sixteen of their seventeen games this season an average winning margin of +11.4 PPG. |
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03-31-17 | Coastal Carolina +8.5 v. Wyoming | 59-83 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (523) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (524). Wyoming (22-15) bounced-back from their 91-81 loss in the opening game of this series on Monday by crushing the Chanticleers by an 81-57 score on Wednesday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Cowboys held Coastal Carolina to just a 31.3% shooting percentage which was their third best defensive effort all season. We are expecting a big emotional letdown in this rubber match for this Wyoming team who may not be able to prevent themselves from being overconfident in this contest after that 34-point victory. But this score will start at 0-0 — and it may take some time for the Cowboys to adjust to that new reality with this game still on their home court in Laramie. As it is, Wyoming is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after a win by at least 20 points. The Cowboys have also been overachieving in the first two games in these Finals by nailing 12 of 31 of their 3-pointers on Wednesday after making 13 of their 34 shots from downtown on Monday. That 38.5% mark from behind the arc for their 65 shots in the first two games in this series is likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods. Not only does Wyoming make 35.3% of their 3-pointers for the season which suggests a step back in that department tonight but the Chanticleers led the Sun Belt Conference by holding their opponents to just a 31.9% shooting mark from behind the 3-point line. |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech v. TCU -4 | 56-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (712) minus the points versus the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (711). TCU (23-15) reached the Finals of the NIT with their 68-53 win over Central Florida as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Horned Frogs have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. This TCU team is more battle-tested coming out of the Big 12 — and remember that they upset Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. We have had the Horned Frogs a number of times this month — and what I like most about this team under first-year head coach Jamie Dixon is that they share the basketball. They led the Big 12 in assisted field goal percentage rate — and by assisting on 63.0% of their field goals this season, they ranked 10th in the nation. Dixon is certainly very familiar with playing in Madison Square Garden after his Tour of Duty with Pittsburgh which involved so many Big East Tournaments in MSG. TCU has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court. The Horned Frogs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big 12. |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech v. TCU UNDER 134 | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (711) and the TCU Horned Frogs (712). Georgia Tech (21-15) held Cal-State Bakersfield to just 35.0% on Tuesday en route to their 76-61 victory as 3.5-point favorites to put them in the Finals of the NIT. The Under is then 5-2-1 in the Yellow Jackets’ last 8 games after a point spread victory. Josh Pastner’s team is playing outstanding defense in this tournament after finishing 2nd in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But this Georgia Tech team can struggle to find baskets after finishing last in the ACC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. This team shot just 43.3% from the field against the Roadrunners. Moving forward, the Yellow Jackets have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. Georgia Tech has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. And in their last 26 games as an underdog getting less than 7 points, the Under is 19-6-1. |
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03-29-17 | Furman v. St. Peter's -3 | Top | 51-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the St. Peter’s Peacocks (526) minus the points versus the Furman Paladins (525). St. Peter’s (21-13) reached the Semifinals of the College Insider Tournament with their 49-44 win at Texas State as a 1-point underdog. The Peacocks held the Bobcats to just 29.4% shooting — and their last five opponents have shot just 40.2% from the field. St. Peter’s has then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Tellingly, the Peacocks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. This team is a “Slow Killer” in that they play at a slow pace but generate extra possessions by forcing turnovers at a 20.9% range which is 41st best in the nation. The Paladins are vulnerable to turning the ball over as they rank 224th in the nation by turning the ball over in 19.1% of their possessions. Not after playing their last two games on the road in this tournament, the Peacocks return home for this contest. St. Peter’s has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored by less than 7 points. |
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03-29-17 | Coastal Carolina v. Wyoming -8 | 57-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (522) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (521). Coastal Carolina (20-17) won the opening game of this Best-of-Three series with their 91-81 upset win over the Cowboys on Monday as a 1-point underdog. But now after hosting all four games in their College Basketball Invitational experience, the Chanticleers go on the road to play in a true hostile environment for the first time since March 4th. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games after playing at least three previous games at home. The Chanticleers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road overall. They will likely struggle to deal with the higher altitude in Laramie. This team also knows in the back of their mind that they can lose this game but still win the tournament in the rubber match. Furthermore, in their last 6 road games as an underdog getting 7-12.5 points, Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. |
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03-28-17 | TCU -2 v. UCF | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
At 9:30 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (779) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (780). TCU (22-15) limped into the Big 12 Tournament on a seven-game losing streak — but they have won five of their last six games in tourney action since with their 86-68 win over Richmond last Tuesday. The Horned Frogs have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win. TCU upset Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament before falling short to Iowa State in those Semifinals. Now this team under first-year head coach Jamie Dixon goes to Madison Square Garden where he coached plenty of times in his previous stint in Pittsburgh with MSG also being the destination for the Big East Tournament. As it is, the Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a neutral court. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Georgia Tech UNDER 125 | 61-76 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cal-State Bakersfield Roadrunners (777) and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (778). Georgia Tech (20-15) reached the NIT Semifinals with their 74-66 win at Mississippi last Tuesday. The Yellow Jackets have then seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread win. The team is getting it done on defense as they held the Rebels to just a 39.7% shooting percentage after finishing 2nd in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Now first-year head coach Josh Pastner takes his team to Madison Square Garden for the Semifinals of the NIT — and the Yellow Jackets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Georgia Tech has also played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 4 games as a favorite laying less than 7 points, the Yellow Jackets have played all 4 games Under the Total. |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Georgia Tech -2.5 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (778) minus the points versus the Cal-State Bakersfield Roadrunners (777). Cal-State Bakersfield (25-9) has pulled off three straight upsets in this NIT to reach the Semifinals of this tournament in Madison Square Garden. Their last contest was an impressive 80-76 win at UT-Arlington last Wednesday where they were a 4-point underdog. But after playing on the road for the third straight game to pull off their third straight upset, we are expecting a significant emotional letdown as they travel across to the country to conclude this tournament in the Big Apple. This is quite an accomplishment for this Western Athletic Conference team. The Roadrunners have been on-fire with their 3-point shooting. After making 9 of their 21 shots from behind the arc in their win against Cal, they followed that up by making 11 of 19 shots from 3-point land against Colorado State and then made another 10 of 19 shots from behind the arc in their win against UT-Arlington. If the Roadrunners continue to make 50.8% of their shots from downtown, they will likely win this game. But expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance in Madison Square Garden tonight for this team that makes only 32.4% of their 3-point shots behind the arc. The Yellow Jackets allow their opponents to make just 33.3% of their 3-point shots. Their 3-point defense has been even better in the NIT. |
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03-27-17 | Wyoming v. Coastal Carolina +1.5 | Top | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (744) plus (or minus) the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (743). Coastal Carolina (19-17) hosts the first-game of this three-game series before Wyoming hosts the last two potential games of this series on their home court in Laramie. The Chanticleers reached the Finals of this Tournament with their 89-78 victory over Illinois-Chicago last Wednesday. Coastal Carolina did allow the Flames to shoot 50% from the field in that victory which was their worst defensive effort in their last sixteen games. Expect a much better performance on the defensive end of the court tonight as the Chanticleers hold their visitors to just 39.0% shooting. Coastal Carolina is 14-6 on their home court where they outscore their opponents by +7.8 PPG. The Chanticleers are an impressive 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games on their home court. Coastal Carolina is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 4 home games as an underdog, the Chanticleers are 3-0-1 ATS. |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
At 5:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (724) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (723). North Carolina (30-7) got their offense on track on Friday with their 92-80 victory over Butler. Justin Jackson and Joel Berry III broke out of their scoring slump in this Tournament by combining to make 17 of their 30 shots from the field. Overall, the Tar Heels made 54.4% of their shots in this game. North Carolina has then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. This showdown will be a rematch of a game these two played in Las Vegas back on December 17th which Kentucky won by a 103-100 score in a shootout. The Tar Heels only pulled down 29.4% of their missed shots in that game. This team led the nation by rebounding 42.1% of their missed shots this season — and that mark has increased to a 43% mark in the NCAA Tournament. Except UNC to control the boards in this rematch — and it is this skill that has helped Roy Williams team go 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games played on a neutral court. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 136.5 | 77-70 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
At 2:20 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Carolina Gamecocks (721) and the Florida Gators (722). South Carolina (25-10) held the Baylor Bears to just 30.4% shooting in their 70-50 win on Friday as a 3-point underdog. The Gamecocks have then played a decisive 45 of their last 63 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This will be the third meeting between these SEC rivals — and this rubber match shapes up to be a low-scoring grind. The Gators won the last meeting between these two teams by an 81-66 score in Gainesville back on February 21st. Florida scored at a blistering 1.16 Points-Per-Possession rate while making 9 of their 19 shots from behind the arc. Expect better perimeter defense from this Gamecocks team that is 9th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.2% mark from behind the arc. Regression also appears likely for this South Carolina team on offense. The Gamecocks are making 54% of their shots inside the arc after only shooting 44% of their 2-point shots in SEC play. Moving forward, South Carolina has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog on a neutral court. And in their last 33 games as an underdog of less than 7 points, the Under is 25-7-1. |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
At 2:20 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (721) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (722). South Carolina (25-10) pulled off their third straight upset in the NCAA Tournament with their 70-50 win over Baylor as a 3-point underdog. The Gamecocks are getting it done with defense as they held the Bears to just 30.4% shooting. This South Carolina team is also been much more efficient with their shooting inside the arc as they are making 54% of their 2-point shots which is 10% higher than their mark during conference play. With Sindarius Thornwell, the reigning SEC Player of the Year, the Gamecocks have a dynamic leader who can take over games. This is a physically and mentally tough team that takes on the personality of their coach Frank Martin. That makes this group very tough in situations like this. South Carolina is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of less than 7 points. And in their last 29 games played on a neutral court, the Gamecocks are 20-8-1 ATS. |
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03-25-17 | Oregon v. Kansas -6.5 | 74-60 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
At 8:45 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (512) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (511). Kansas (31-4) has been dominant in this NCAA Tournament — and their best performance may have been on Thursday night when they destroyed Purdue by a 98-66 score. The Jayhawks previously destroyed Michigan State by a 90-70 score after their opening 100-62 win over Cal-Davis. Kansas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. The Jayhawks have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 85 points in two straight contests. Moving forward, Kansas has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite, the Jayhawks have covered the point spread 7 times. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga -7.5 | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
At 6:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (514) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (513). Gonzaga (35-1) held West Virginia to just 26.7% on Thursday in their 61-58 victory. The Bulldogs are playing outstanding defense in this tournament as their three opponents are shooting just 33.3% from the field while scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession rate. Most impressively, the Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 37% shooting inside the arc. But while Gonzaga is making only 29% of their shots from behind the arc in this tournament, they look due for a big surge in their shooting from the 3-point line considering their 37.4% shooting mark for the season from downtown. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 140-149.5 point range. Gonzaga is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite laying 7-12.5 points. And in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Bulldogs are 15-4-2 ATS. |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga UNDER 145.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
At 6:05 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (513) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (514). Gonzaga (35-1) held West Virginia to just 26.7% on Thursday in their 61-58 victory. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Gonzaga is playing outstanding defense in this tournament as their three opponents are shooting just 33.3% from the field while scoring at just a 0.85 Points-Per-Possession rate. Most impressively, the Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 37% shooting inside the arc. Gonzaga needs their defense to continue to be outstanding when considering that they are shooting just 29% from behind the arc in this tournament. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams outside the West Coast Conference. And in their last 8 games played on a neutral court, Gonzaga has played 6 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin +1 v. Florida | 83-84 | Push | 0 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
At 9:55 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (871) plus the point(s) versus the Florida Gators (872). Florida (26-8) has won their opening two games of the NCAA Tournament after stifling the Cavaliers to just 29.6% shooting in their 65-39 win over Virginia as a 1.5-point favorite. Give credit to the Gators for allowing the fewest points ever in the NCAA Tournament to a major conference team. But that Cavaliers’ team had zero interior offense this season and had exposed frequently for an incredibly ineffective offense. This Florida team will be facing a much better offensive club in Wisconsin. As it is, the Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing at least 50 points in their last game. The 0.79 Points-Per-Possession that Florida is allowing in this tournament is the best of all teams. But this looks to be the game where missing their enforcer inside in the injured 6’10 John Egbuno exposes the remaining weaknesses of this team. This is also head coach Mike White’s first NCAA Tournament — and his lack of experience puts his team at a disadvantage versus the Badgers. This Florida team does not crash the boards either when compared to past Gator teams. They were just 6th in the SEC by rebounding 30.3% of their missed shots. |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky UNDER 167 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
At 9:35 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (875) and the Kentucky Wildcats (876). UCLA (31-4) held the Cincinnati Bearcats to just 44.8% shooting to advance to the Sweet 16 with their 79-67 victory as a 4-point favorite. The Bruins have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The defensive struggles of this team is a tired meme that continues to offer us great value with the Under for Steve Alford’s team. This UCLA defense has improved since Alford installed a tricky 3-2 zone that presents opponents a challenging unique look. Save for their two games against Arizona and what the Bearcats shot against UCLA was their worst defensive performance in ten previous contests. The Bruins have seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12. And in their last 7 games played on a neutral court, UCLA has played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
At 9:39 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (876) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (875). Kentucky (31-5) has won thirteen straight games with their 65-62 win over Wichita State last weekend. Interior defense has been a vulnerability of this team all season — so the fact that the Wildcats held the Shockers to just a 38.7% shooting mark including a low 42% mark inside the arc is very encouraging for John Calipari’s team. Calipari’s teams always improve to peak during March Madness — and he wants his teams to constantly get better on the defensive end of the court. This team also has the benefit of reviewing the game tape of their 97-92 loss to UCLA back on December 3rd in Rupp Arena. Calipari had his team playing at a much quicker pace back then — expect a game plan now that does not attempt to simply outscore the Bruins. This Kentucky team has three future NBA first round draft choices on the roster with Bam Adebayo, Malik Monk and De’Aron Fox. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 NCAA Tourney games as an underdog. Kentucky is also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog on a neutral court. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS. |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor -3 | 70-50 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
At 7:25 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (874) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (874). Baylor (27-7) is not getting as much respect as they deserve after enjoying the benefit of facing two double-digit seeds in the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament in New Mexico State and USC. But remember that this team is undefeated against teams outside the Big 12 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. In their 82-78 win over USC on Sunday, Baylor did allow the Trojans to make 54.5% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort in their last five games. But this Bears team had the 13th best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation so expect a much better defensive effort in this contest. Baylor is finding success on offense in this tournament as they lead all teams with 90 points in the paint. This physical play is also helping them get to the charity stripe. They made 13 of their 15 free throws against USC — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a game where they made at least 78% of their free throws. |
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03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina -7 | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (878) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (877). North Carolina (29-7) survived blowing a 17-point lead against Arkansas last Sunday in their 72-65 victory. The Tar Heels seemed to be cruising in that game before taking their foot off the pedal — and then later they found themselves trailing by 5 points with three minutes left to go. But give Roy Williams’ team credit for stepping up their game to avoid the upset against the Razorbacks. This North Carolina team has not played well in their four postseason games when including the ACC Tournament. The Tar Heels are making only 50% of their shots inside the arc while shooting just 32% of their 3-point shots in their high volume shooting offense. Justin Jackson is making only 39% of his 2-point shots in these four games while Joel Berry is 0-7 inside the arc in the NCAA Tournament while making just 20% of his 3-point shots. But elite teams that struggle to win their first two games often step up in the Sweet 16. Expect a much better shooting effort tonight after making only 38.1% of their shots against Arkansas which was their worst offensive effort in their last five games. The Tar Heels are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite laying 7-12.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when laying 7-12.5 points in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-23-17 | Xavier v. Arizona -7.5 | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:05 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Wildcats (818) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (817). Xavier (23-13) reached the Sweet 16 with a dominant 91-66 win over Florida State as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. That was the Musketeers’ best offensive performance in their last twenty-one games. This has been an improbable run for Chris Mack’s team who lost his point guard to a season-ending injury early in the Big East campaign which helped lead to a difficult six-game losing streak that almost cost this team an At-Large bid to the NCAA Tournament. So this is a very nice accomplishment. But here comes the “but.” This team looks very ripe for a significant letdown now after the euphoria of shocking the Seminoles and making the Sweet 16. The Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing a game as an underdog. This is a team that can struggle to score — they were just 7th in the Big East by making just 33.0% of their 3-point shots. Xavier does consistently thrive by crashing the glass on both ends of the court — but Mack’s teams struggle against elite teams that can match his team on the boards. The Wildcats out-rebound their opponents by +6.7 RPG — and the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against opponents who out-rebound their foes by at least +6.0 RPG. Additionally, Xavier has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 80%. |
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03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas -5 | 66-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
At 9:35 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (812) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (811). Kansas (30-4) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 90-70 win over Michigan State last Sunday. The Jayhawks are scoring 95 PPG so far in this tournament while averaging 1.44 Points-Per-Possession with both marks being the best in the NCAA Tournament. This Kansas team has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored. This team has the best backcourt in the nation with Frank Mason III and Devonte Graham. The X-Factor for this team is freshman Josh Jackson who seems to blossoming in this tournament after scoring 23 points against the Spartans. He is averaging 20 PPG in this tournament while making 14 of 22 shots inside the arc and hitting 3 of 6 shots from 3-point land. The Jayhawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite, this Kansas team has covered the point spread 6 times. |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia v. Gonzaga UNDER 149.5 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
At 7:35 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (815) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (816). West Virginia (28-8) has won five of their last six games after their 83-71 win over Notre Dame last Saturday. While that game finished above the 149.5 point total, the Under remains 5-2-1 in the Mountaineers’ last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 12 games against teams as an underdog, the Under is 8-3-1 for the Mountaineers. |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Gonzaga | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
At 7:35 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (815) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (816). West Virginia (28-8) has won five of their last six games after their 83-71 win over Notre Dame on Saturday. The Mountaineers made 50% of their shots in that game — and if this team is making their shots, they are extremely difficult to beat. What makes Bob Huggins’ team such a dangerous underdog is their ability to create additional scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. West Virginia leads the nation by forcing turnovers in 27.7% of their opponent’s possessions. The Mountaineers also rank 6th in the nation by pulling down 37.7% of their missed shots. It are these characteristics that has helped Huggins’ teams at West Virginia cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games in postseason tournaments — and that includes covering the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games in the Big Dance. But the Mountaineers have been quite good on offense in their first two games in this tournament as they are hitting 52% of their 3-point shots which is the best mark for all teams that played at least twice in this tournament. Additionally, while this West Virginia team has only covered the point spread in two of their last eight games, they have then covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. |
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03-23-17 | Michigan -1 v. Oregon | 68-69 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
At 7:05 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (813) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (814). Michigan (26-11) has been playing like a team of destiny with their six-game winning streak in the postseason that started after tempting fate with that airplane crash on the eve of the beginning of the Big Ten Tournament. But there is a lot more going on here than simply a team that is “living by the 3.” Unquestionably with a starting lineup that features five players that can all step to hit a shot from behind the arc, the John Beilein offense begins with a high proficiency to nail 3-pointers. But in their 73-69 victory over Louisville on Sunday, the Wolverines made only six 3-pointers yet still scores and an impressive 1.18 Points-Per-Possession rate against an elite Rick Pitino Cardinals’ defense. And their floor general and leader Derrick Walton was just 3 of 13 from the field in that game. Michigan has many different ways to score — and perhaps the most underrated element to this team is the emergence of two future NBA players in 6’11 sophomore Moe Wagner and 6’10 sophomore D.J. Wilson. Both players can nail 3-pointers — but the Wolverines have been catapulted by them combining to make 65% of their shots inside the arc. They helped the Wolverines score 40 paints in the paint against a tall Louisville team — and this is a scary prospect for Oregon now missing their best rim protector in Chris Boucher. The other aspect of this Beilein team that makes them so tough is a turnover differential that makes Jim Harbaugh proud. Michigan forces turnovers in 19.9% of their opponent’s possessions which ranks a respectable 86th in the nation. But the Wolverines also rank 4th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 14.3% of their possessions this season. In their six postseason games starting with the Big Ten Tournament, this Michigan team is outscoring their quality opponents by +0.13 PPP — despite making a strong but certainly not a spectacular 39% of their 3-point shots. When considering that this number drops to just a +0.04 PPG mark in effective possessions that remove possessions resulting in turnovers, the significant positive impact of this team crushing it in the turnover battle becomes quite evident. Nailing free throws is another staple for Beilein-coached teams. After making 18 of their 22 free throws against Oklahoma State, Michigan made 11 of their 14 free throws against Louisville. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after shooting at least 78% from the free throw line in two straight games. Led by senior guards with tournament experience in Walton and Zac Irvin, this Michigan team has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court. And in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as the favorite laying less than 7 points, the Wolverines have covered the point spread 4 times. |
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03-22-17 | Utah Valley v. Wyoming -3.5 | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (782) minus the points versus the Utah Valley Wolverines (781). Wyoming (20-14) won their second game in the CBI Tournament with their 72-61 win over the University of Missouri-Kansas City on Monday as a 10-point favorite. The Cowboys nailed 10 of their 12 free throws to help secure the win in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 78% from the free throw line in their last game. Wyoming hosted the first game of this tournament as well on their home court that ended in a 91-81 win over Eastern Washington. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after playing at least two straight games at home. And while the Wolverines are just 9-11 on the road this season, Wyoming has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. |
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03-22-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Texas-Arlington -6.5 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas-Arlington Mavericks (770) minus the points versus the California State-Bakersfield Roadrunners (769). Cal-State Bakersfield (24-9) pulled their second straight upset in the NIT with their 81-63 win at Colorado State on Monday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Roadrunners shot 48.3% from the field against the Rams which was their best offensive effort — by far — in their last six games with their next best shooting effort being just a 41.8% shooting mark. This is a team that has shot just 37.0% from the field over their last five games. To make matters worse for this team, they do not make up for things on the free throw line as they rank 346th in the nation by making only 63.1% of their free throws. CS-Bakersfield does put their opponent’s on the line though given their rough 47.2% opponent’s Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio which is 340th in the nation. The Roadrunners also turn the ball over too much as they rank 309th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.6% of their possessions. The Mavericks do pressure the basketball as they ranked 2nd in the Sun Belt by forcing turnovers in 20.2% of their opponent’s possessions. These are all dangerous signs forced to play their third straight game on the road in this tournament. |
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03-22-17 | Illinois v. UCF UNDER 130.5 | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (767) and the Central Florida Knights (768). Illinois (20-14) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the NIT with their 71-56 win over Boise State on Monday as an 8-point favorite. The Fighting Illini have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team has also played 8 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. Now the Illini go on the road where they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Fighting Illini are the favorites in this game. Illinois has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as the favorite when laying less than 7 points. |
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03-21-17 | Georgia Tech +5.5 v. Ole Miss | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (667) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (668). Georgia Tech (19-15) reached the Quarterfinals of NIT with their 71-57 win over Belmont on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. The Yellow Jackets have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. Now Georgia Tech goes on the road for the first time in this tournament. But the Yellow Jackets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog getting less than 7 points. Additionally, this Georgia Tech is a decisive 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-20-17 | George Washington v. Illinois-Chicago OVER 149 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 1 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the George Washington Colonials (629) and the Illinois-Chicago Flames (630). George Washington (20-14) won their opening game in the College Basketball Invitational with their 73-69 win over Toledo last Wednesday as a 6-point favorite. The Colonials have then played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. George Washington has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Now the Colonials go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 Over the Total. GW has also played 4 straight games on the road Over the Total as a favorite laying less than 7 points. |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA -3 | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
At 9:40 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (732) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (731). Cincinnati (30-5) has won five of their last six games with their 75-61 in over Kansas State on Friday as a 3-point favorite. The Bearcats shot 62.8% from the field in that game which was their best offensive performance in their last 24 games — so we are expecting significant regression. Mike Cronin’s team is a bit shooting the basketball this season — but they still make only 40.2% of their shots away from home. It is telling that this team has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games againt teams with a winning record. Cincy has also ailed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting less than 7 points. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the NCAA Tournament. And in their last 6 games in the Big Dance getting less than 7 points as an underdog, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA UNDER 154 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bearcats (731) and the UCLA Bruins (732). UCLA (30-4) enters this game coming off a hot shooting night where they nailed 62.7% from the field in their 97-80 victory over Kent State. The Bruins have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. UCLA has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Steve Alford’s team has the reputation for having a mediocre defense — but they have held their last five opponents to just a 42.5% shooting mark. The Bruins will be facing a Bearcats team that will be looking to slow the pace of this game way down — and they hold their opponents to just 60.8 PPG. UCLA has played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Bruins have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a favorite. And while both teams have scored 75 points in the last two games for UCLA, that helps place the Under in a historical angle that has been 79% effective since 1997. In games played on a neutral court, when teams who score at least 76 PPG (UCLA: 90.6 PPG) who have played two straight games where both teams scored at least 75 points and now faces a team that does not allow more than 63 PPG, these games then finished Under the Total in 42 of the last 53 situations where these conditions applied. |
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03-19-17 | USC v. Baylor -5.5 | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
At 7:45 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (725) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (725). USC (26-9) has won five of their last six games with their 66-65 upset win over SMU on Friday as a 7-point underdog. The Trojans shot 48% from the field in that game that was their best shooting effort in their last four games. But this USC team was pretty unspectacular in Pac-12 play as they finished 6th in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency. While they like to play at a fast pace, they will find a very will dance partner with this Bears team that thrives with up-tempo play. This Trojans team is vulnerable on the defensive glass as they ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in this department while ranking 250th in the nation overall by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.0% of their missed shots. This Baylor team are beasts on the board as they rank 3rd in the nation by pulling down 39.3% of their missed shots — and that mark rose to a 42.1% mark in Big 12 play. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog getting less than 7 points. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island +5.5 v. Oregon | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:10 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Rhode Island Rams (729) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (730). Interestingly, this game features the top two teams in the nation in blocked shots. That suggests that this will be a defensive-oriented game — and that typically offers value to the underdog. Rhode Island (25-9) has won nine straight games after their 84-72 win over Creighton on Friday. This team has covered the point spread in four straight games with Dan Hurley’s team finally healthy and playing at full strength. They have the defensive makeup to make this a very tough game for the Ducks. The Rams are 9th in the nation in defensive effective field goal percentage — and they are second in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 29.1% shooting mark behind the arc. This Rhode Island team has the talent to disrupt the Oregon offensive flow and get them out of their rhythm. Expect Hurley to have his team slow the pace of the game down to a slog. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, Rhode Island has covered the point spread all 4 times. |
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03-19-17 | Arkansas v. North Carolina -11 | 65-72 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
At 6:10 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (718) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (717). Arkansas (26-9) has won four of their last five games with their 77-71 upset victory over Seton Hall on Friday. Frankly, the Razorbacks were extremely fortunate beneficiaries of an intentional foul call that completely changed the tenor of the game. But this Arkansas has then failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games after an upset victory. The Razorbacks now face an awesome task of taking on the Tar Heels who lead the nation by pulling down 42.2% of their missed shots. North Carolina will likely own the offensive glass against this Arkansas team that was 330th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 34.0% of their missed shots. Compounding this situation is the fact that the Razorbacks ranked 11th in the SEC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Because Arkansas will play at the Tar Heels’ fast pace, this prospects of a blowout looks likely. The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Arkansas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against non-conference opponents. And in their last 5 appearances in the NCAA Tournament, the Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. |
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03-19-17 | Michigan State v. Kansas -7.5 | 70-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
At 5:15 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (728) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (727). Michigan State (20-14) comes off a very surprising effort on Friday in a 78-58 victory over Miami (FL). Tom Izzo inserted four freshmen into the starting lineup with results that were quite out of the ordinary for this team. The Spartans shot 56.6% from the field which was their best offensive effort in their last eighteen games. Michigan State also pulled down 41.7% of their missed shots to look like Sparty of old under Izzo. But this team only rebounded just 27.5% of their missed shots in Big Ten play which third to the bottom. Turnovers are also an issue for this team as they were second to last in the Big Ten by coughing the ball up in 20.3% of their possessions. Michigan State has not been a dangerous underdog as of late. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the dog. The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games getting 7-12.5 points. And in their last 13 games as an underdog on a neutral court, Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of these games. |
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03-19-17 | Wichita State +4 v. Kentucky | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
At 2:40 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Wichita State Shockers (723) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (724). Kentucky (30-5) has won twelve straight games after their 79-70 win over Northern Kentucky on Friday. This team has then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after winning twelve of their last fifteen games. This version of John Calipari’s young Wildcats have shown themselves to be inconsistent by digging themselves into some holes. They do more often than not find away out of trouble — but they also outclassed an SEC that was down this season after Florida suffered an injury to their big man John Egbunu. Half-court defense is a weakness of this team — they are 9th in the SEC with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.2%. Furthermore, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing outside the SEC. And in the last 4 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite laying less than 7 points, Kentucky is 0-3-1 ATS. |
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03-19-17 | Michigan v. Louisville -3.5 | 73-69 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
At 12:10 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (722) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (721). Michigan (25-11) is one of the hottest teams in the nation having won six straight games as well as eleven of their last thirteen after their 92-91 win over Oklahoma State on Friday. Scoring 92 points on just 65 possessions may represent the best offensive performance of the NCAA Tournament so far. The Wolverines nailed 16 of their 26 shots from behind the arc while making 18 of 22 free throws. But they were facing a very weak Cowboys’ defense in that game — and now they one of best defenses in the country. Rick Pitino’s team is 7th in the nation in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their opponents to just a 31.7% shooting mark from behind the arc. It is the length of this Cardinals team that will be such a challenge for the Wolverines as six of the eight players Pitino uses in his rotation are at least 6’7. Defense remains an Achilles’ heel for this Michigan team as they still only one by a point after that outstanding offensive effort against an Oklahoma State team the made 54.7% of their shots. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. The bubble may finally be bursting for this Michigan team who are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the Big Dance. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the Big Ten, the Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. |
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03-18-17 | Iowa State +1 v. Purdue | 76-80 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
At 9:40 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (527) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (528). Purdue (26-7) has won three of their last four games after their 80-70 win over Vermont on Thursday. The Boilermakers shot 51.7% from the field which was their best offensive effort in their last thirteen contests. But this team may be due for a letdown when considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 36 road games after winning at least 12 of their last 15 games. But this Purdue team has struggled against elite offensive reams. This team allows 67.2 PPG — but in their seven losses this season, their opponents scored 81.5 PPG. Michigan offers the Cyclones the blueprint to win this game with two victories against them in late February and then in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines successfully deployed small-ball while bombarding the Boilermakers with 3-point shooting. This forced the Purdue bigs out to the perimeter where they are not averse — and that then opened up space for Michigan guards to drive the lane. The Wolverines also forced turnovers in 20.9% of the Boilermakers’ possessions in the Big Ten Tournament — and Iowa State is much better in this department. The Cyclones forced turnovers in 21.3% of their opponent’s possessions in a rugged Big 12 that also faces pressure teams in West Virginia and Kansas State. Iowa State also averages 11.9 steals per game. Purdue allowed their Big Ten opponents a steal in 9.4% of their possessions while turning the ball over in 18.0% of their possessions overall. |
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03-18-17 | Xavier v. Florida State UNDER 151.5 | 91-66 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
At 6:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (523) and the Florida State Seminoles (524). Florida State (26-8) has won three of their last four games with their 86-80 win over the Florida Gulf Coast as an 11.5-point favorite on Thursday. While the Seminoles had a willing dance partner for their preferred fast pace in that contest, that will certainly not be the case against this Musketeers team that will be looking to make this game into a slog. As it is, the Under is 3-0-1 in Florida State’s last 4 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Under is 3-1-1 in the Seminoles’ last 5 games as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament laying less than 6 points. Furthermore, the Under is 4-1-1 in Florida State’s last 6 games played on a neutral court. |
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03-18-17 | Xavier v. Florida State -7 | Top | 91-66 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
At 6:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (524) minus the points versus the Xavier Musketeers (523). Xavier (22-13) has won four of their last five games after pulling the upset on Thursday by defeating Maryland by a 76-65 score. The Musketeers shot 50% from the field which was their best offensive effort in their last twelve games since facing a suspect defensive team in Creighton — so regression is likely on that end of the court. This team has been an enigma to the oddsmakers for months as they failed to cover the point spread in seven straight games amidst a six-game losing streak. The team was suffering from the season-ending injury to point guard Edmond Sumner followed up by Myles Davis leaving the team after returning for just three games after serving a first-semester suspension. But now this Xavier team has recovered to win four of five games while covering the point spread in five straight games. Look for the bubble to burst on what is now a flawed basketball team after the losses of those two players. This team relies on a freshman point guard in Quentin Goodin who was at best a part-time player earlier in the season before losing Sumner. Despite the upset win on Thursday, the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Xavier has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games outside the Atlantic-10, the Musketeers have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10.5 | 73-79 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
At 5:15 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (530) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (529). Northwestern (24-11) responded to their first ever appearance in the NCAA Tournament by pulling off a 68-66 upset win over Vanderbilt as a 2-point underdog on Thursday. The Wildcats held the Commodores to just 38.2% shooting in their best defensive effort in their last ten games. But this team looks primed for a big letdown now facing a number one seed in Gonzaga. Remember, it was just in their previous game that this Northwestern team was thoroughly outclassed by Wisconsin in a 28-point loss where they shot just 34.6% from the field. The Wildcats look to be a poor-man’s version of Saint Mary’s — and the Bulldogs buried the Gaels’ three times this season by double-digits. As it is, Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. The Wildcats do not create second chance points by crashing the boards (28.9% offensive rebound rate, 9th in the Big Ten) and they make only 47.5% of their shots inside the arc (7th in the Big Ten) while finishing second to last in the conference with their meager 30.9% shooting mark from downtown. How will this team score enough points to keep up with the Zags? |
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03-18-17 | Wisconsin +6 v. Villanova | 65-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
At 2:40 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (519) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (520). This is a tough matchup for the defending champions. What are the weaknesses of this Villanova team (32-3)? Not many — but we could start with the fact that they are not the biggest team in the nation. 6’9 Darryl Reynolds is on the court over the half the time coming off the bench but Jay Wright does not have another rotational player taller than 6’7. Two of the Badgers’ stars are big men in 6’10 Ethan Happ (232 lbs) and the 6’8 Nigel Hayes (240 lbs) with two other rotational players who are 6’8 and 235 lbs and 252 lbs respectively. Furthermore, the Wildcats’ bench is thin with Jay Wright only using a seven player rotation. Greg Gard is comfortable using nine different players on the court. Unquestionably, this Villanova team is an outstanding offensive unit. They are second in the nation with a shooting percentage inside the arc of 59.6% that rose to an epic 60.7% mark in Big East play. But this Badgers’ team has an outstanding interior defense that is 9th in the nation by holding opponents to just a 42.8% shooting clip — and that number declined even further in Big Ten play to just 42.1%. Villanova will also hoist up plenty of 3s — but while they made 37.0% this season, that number dropped to 34.7% in Big East play. |
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03-18-17 | Notre Dame +3 v. West Virginia | 71-83 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
At 12:10 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (517) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (518). West Virginia (27-8) faces perhaps the closest team to their Kryptonite as there is in the nation in this Fighting Irish team. Press Virginia leads the nation in forcing turnovers at a 27.9% rate this season — but this Notre Dame also leads the nation by only turning the ball over in 13.8% of their opponent’s possessions. The flip-side of the Mountaineers’ pressure is that they foul — a lot. West Virginia is 306th in the nation with an opponent’s Free Throw Attempt-to-Field Goal Attempt ratio of 42.1%. And while the Fighting Irish do not get to the line often (285th in the nation in FTA/FGA ratio) that is probably because opponents are petrified to give them freebies considering that they lead the nation with a 79.5% free throw percentage rate. The Mountaineers come off an 86-80 win over Bucknell on Thursday as a 13-point favorite. West Virginia is then 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Bob Huggins’ teams have not done well in situations like this. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. |
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03-17-17 | Kent State v. UCLA UNDER 163 | 80-97 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
At 9:57 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kent State Golden Flashes (845) and the UCLA Bruins (846). Kent State (22-13) has won four straight games to win the Mid-American Conference Championship with their 70-65 win over Akron on March 11th as a 3.5-point underdog. The Golden Flashes have then played 8 straight games Under the Total after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. Additionally, Kent State has played straight 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. As an underdog, the Golden Flashes have played 8 straight games Under the Total. Kent State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. And in their last 7 games on a neutral court as an underdog, the Golden Flashes have played 5 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-17-17 | Marquette v. South Carolina +1 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
At 9:50 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (820) plus (or minus) the points versus the Marquette Golden Eagles (819). South Carolina (22-10) stumbles into the NCAA Tournament with two straight losses after an ugly 63-54 loss to Alabama in the SEC Tournament. The Gamecocks shot only 36.7% in that game — and that was actually their best offensive effort in their last three games after making just 35.9% and 34% in their previous two contests. But scoring will be easier tonight when facing this Golden Eagles’ defense that was 9th in the Big East in Defensive Efficiency. South Carolina will enjoy a big geographical advantage with this game being played only 100 miles away in Greenville. And in a battle of Offense v. Defense, we will happily side with Frank Martin’s team. The toughness of this team should make the difference as they cut off driving and passing lanes. Marquette may have led the nation with a 43% shooting percentage from the 3-point line but the Gamecocks were 5th in the nation by holding opponents to just a 29.6% shooting percentage from behind the arc. South Carolina has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 expected higher scoring games with the Total set in the 140-149.5 point range. Additionally, the Gamecocks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on a neutral court — and they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games against non-SEC teams. |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 84-72 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
At 4:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Rhode Island Rams (843) and the Creighton Bluejays (844). Rhode Island (24-9) has won eight straight games to win the Atlantic-10 Tournament with their 70-63 win over VCU on Sunday. The formula for success for this team now when facing the offensive juggernaut which is this Bluejays’ team is to slow the pace of the game, force bad shots on defense and crash the boards on offense — just like how they slowed down the Rams in their last contest. While that game finished just above the 132.5 point total, Rhode Island has still played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total when played on a neutral court. These Rams have also played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140-149.5 point range. Rhode Island has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams outside the A-10. Head coach Dan Hurley will try to make this game a slog. Creighton scores 82.1 PPG while throwing 22 shots from behind the arc per game. The Rams have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 77 PPG — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 21 shots from the 3-point line per game. |
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03-17-17 | USC v. SMU -7 | 66-65 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 46 m | Show | |
At 3:10 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Southern Methodist Mustangs (836) minus the points versus the Southern California Trojans (835). USC (25-9) rallied from a 17-point deficit to stun Providence on Wednesday in a 75-71 victory. At first glance, this Trojans team looks dangerous now playing with “house money” as an underdog now. But this remains a team that was outclassed by most of the elite Pac-12 opponents — save for their crosstown rivals in UCLA. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Trojans only outscored their conference opponents by +0.01 Points-Per-Possession despite a 10-8 record — numbers pumped up by pouncing on the bottom of the league in Washington, Washington State and Oregon State. Their lack of depth for this game will not allow them to challenge the short rotation that this SMY deploys. Furthermore, while USC has not committed more than 8 turnovers in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 contests. |
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03-17-17 | Seton Hall v. Arkansas | 71-77 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 50 m | Show | |
At 1:30 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (823) plus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (824). Seton Hall (21-11) will be looking to redeem themselves from a flat effort in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament last year where they lost to Gonzaga by a 68-52 score. Most the players from that team will be on the court this afternoon. The Pirates look to bounce-back from a narrow 55-53 loss to Villanova last Friday in the Big East Tournament. Seton Hall has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. The Pirates have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State +3 v. Michigan | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
At 12:15 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (827) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (828). Michigan (24-11) is one of the hottest teams in the nation having won ten of their last twelve games as well as capturing the Big Ten Tournament Championship over the weekend despite being an 8-seed in that tournament. The Wolverines held Wisconsin to just 39.3% shooting in their 71-56 win on Sunday to claim that title in what was their best defensive effort in their last nine games. While this Michigan team is playing better on that end of the court, they will be challenged like never before this season against the most efficient offense in the country with these Cowboys. After winning four games in four days after surviving that plane crash last week, this is a team that looks overdue for a big emotional — and physical — letdown. That is not a good sign for a favorite now that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big Ten. |
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03-16-17 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
At 7:20 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Saint Mary’s Gaels (744) minus the points versus the VCU Rams (743). Saint Mary’s (28-4) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the Finals of the West Coast Conference Tournament with their 74-56 loss to Gonzaga as a 4.5-point underdog. The Gaels’ shot just 36.8% from the field — their worst offensive effort in their last eight games — while allowing wth Bulldogs to shoot 50% from the field in what was their worst defensive performance in their last seven games. Expect a much better effort tonight with this team benefiting from nine days off. As it is, Saint Mary’s has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. This is a mature team that returned the second most minutes from last season just behind Wisconsin. But this team has the memory of getting jobbed out of an At-Large bid for the Big Dance last year so they should be very chippy for this opportunity. The Gaels are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games against teams outside the WCC. And in their last 54 games as a favorite laying less than 7 points, Saint Mary’s is 35-17-2 ATS. The Gaels have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral court as a favorite. |
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03-16-17 | Vermont +9.5 v. Purdue | Top | 70-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:27 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Vermont Catamounts (731) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (732). Vermont (29-5) played the role of Schoolyard Bully by going undefeated in American East play while rattling off twenty-one straight games. Yet they shot only 33.3% from the field against Albany to win the American East Tournament so this team will be focused on improving their effort after surviving their worst shooting performance of the season. This team has the profile that reminds me of the recent Harvard teams that dominated the Ivy but changed gears in the Big Dance to great success. The Catamounts made 39.7% of their 3-pointers in conference play but these shots accounted for only 25.4% of their points as opposed to the 30.4% national average. Why? Because this Vermont team eats teams up alive inside the arc where they make 55.6% of their shots which is 12th in the nation. And despite the Boilermakers’ size, they struggle with interior defense as the were just 6th in the Big Ten with these opponents making 47.4% of these shots. Look for the Catamounts to launch more 3s in this game while continuing to slow the pace — they averaged only 67.1 possessions per game. Vermont can also increase their pressure on defense — they forced turnovers in 19.4% of their opponent’s possessions which was 2nd in their conference while Purdue was vulnerable here by seeing turnovers in 18.0% of their possessions which was 7th in the Big Ten. Additionally, this Catamounts team plays good defense that led the American East in both Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and opponent’s effective field goal percentage. This helped Vermont cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral court as an underdog. |
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03-16-17 | Xavier v. Maryland -1.5 | 76-65 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
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03-16-17 | Winthrop v. Butler -11 | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
At 1:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Butler Bulldogs (736) minus the points versus the Winthrop Eagles (735). Butler (23-8) limps into the NCAA Tournament with two straight losses after their opening round 62-57 upset loss in the Big East Tournament to Xavier as a 6.5-point favorite. That setback should ensure that the Bulldogs are rested and motivated for some redemption in this very winnable game for them. Butler is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. This is a very reliable team that is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games against non-conference opponents as well as 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And this team is 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 games in the NCAA Tournament which includes 4 straight point spread winners as the favorite in the Big Dance. |
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03-16-17 | North Carolina Wilmington v. Virginia -7.5 | 71-76 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
At 12:40 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (722) minus the points versus the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (721). Virginia (22-10) is considered vulnerable in this spot as the vaunted 5-seed facing a feisty underdog — but the truth is that is a fantastic matchup for them. The Cavaliers’ Pack-Line defense devastates opponents without elite players as it allows them to control the defensive boards while forcing opponents into bad shots. Virginia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the ACC. This Pack-Line defense makes even the best teams struggle — ask North Carolina and Louisville (twice). Granted, this Cavaliers team has struggled on offense as they can get too reliant on outside shooting. But remember that this Virginia team is 18th in the nation by converting 39.3% of their shots from 3-point land — so if they are hitting these shots, the Seahawks are likely in trouble. But with UNC-Wilmington not having a player taller than 6’7, Virginia will likely find more scoring opportunities inside the arc than they are used to — more on this in a moment. These Cavs will be very focused after suffering an upset 71-58 loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament as a 3.5-point favorite in a game where they allow the Irish to shoot 52.2% from the field — their worst defensive effort in their last ten games. Virginia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss. Despite all the upset talk for this 5-12 seed matchup, the Cavs are pretty healthy favorites in this game which tells you something about how the oddsmakers see this game. Virginia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games laying 7-12.5 points. |
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03-16-17 | Princeton +6.5 v. Notre Dame | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
At 12:15 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Princeton Tigers (717) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (718). Notre Dame (25-9) has reached the Elite Eight for the last two seasons under head coach Mike Brey — but that is a long way away still for this group that lost in the ACC Tournament to Duke by a 75-69 score. This success has not translated into winning tickets for bettors as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 NCAA Tournament games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 Big Dance games as the favorite. Playing an early afternoon game on the neutral court in Buffalo may not mix well with their heavy reliance on 3-point shooting — 36.3% of their points came from behind the arc in conference play which topped the ACC. This team does not crash the boards on offense either — so if their shots are not falling, this could get interesting very fast. |
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03-15-17 | USC v. Providence +2.5 | 75-71 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
At 9:10 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Providence Friars (622) plus the points versus the Southern California Trojans (621). Providence (20-12) had won six straight games entering the Big East Tournament but suffered a 70-56 loss in those Quarterfinals to Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog. The Friars should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. This team was 10-8 in the Big East this season despite losing their two stars from last year in Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. This Providence team has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Friars have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games played on a neutral court. And in their last 54 games as an underdog of less than 7 points, Providence has covered the point spread a decisive 37 times. The Friars have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on a neutral court as an underdog. |
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03-15-17 | Belmont +6.5 v. Georgia | Top | 78-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Belmont Bruins (625) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (626). Belmont (22-6) takes the floor for the first time since their disappointing 65-59 loss to Jacksonville State back on March 3rd as an 8-point favorite in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The Bruins shot only 36.7% from the field after missing 30 of their 38 shots from behind the arc. Live by the 3 — die by the 3. But Belmont is a team that mostly lived quite well shooting 3-pointers like there was no tomorrow. The Bruins were 2nd in the nation with 56.2% of their shots coming from the 3-point line — and they were 10th in the nation with 39.1% of their points coming from made 3-pointers. Belmont is more than just a 3-point shooting machine either as the 62.4% shooting mark inside the arc leads the nation. Considering that this team made 37.2% of their 3-pointers in conference play and they finished 10th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 56.1%, this team should shoot better from the field tonight. The Bruins are disappointed to not win the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament — but they also lack a signature win this year after losing to Vanderbilt, Florida, Rhode Island and Middle Tennessee. But Belmont has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Bruins have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. |
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03-15-17 | North Carolina Central v. UC-Davis UNDER 132.5 | Top | 63-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
At 6:40 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina-Central Eagles (621) and the UC-Davis Aggies (622). UNC-Central (25-8) won the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference on Saturday with their 67-59 win over Norfolk State as a 7-point favorite after holding the Spartans to just a 35.4% shooting percentage. The Eagles were 3rd in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UNC-Central needed this defensive effort as they only shot 39.3% from the field themselves. The Eagles have seen the Under go 13-3-1 in their last 17 boarded games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 boarded games after a point spread victory. UNC-Central was rewarded with their automatic bid by a trip to Dayton to play in the First-Four — and the Under is 13-3-1 in their last 17 boarded games played on a neutral court. This Eagles team has also played 5 of their last 6 boarded games Under the Total as a favorite laying less than 7 points — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 boarded games on a neutral court as the favorite. Additionally, UNC-Central has played 4 straight boarded games Under the Total against a non-conference opponent. |
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