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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-16-19 | Iowa v. Penn State -1.5 | 89-82 | Loss | -110 | 0 h 12 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (802) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (801). THE SITUATION: Penn State (7-10) has lost four straight games after their 71-56 loss at home to Michigan State as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Iowa (14-3) has won eight of their last nine games with their 72-62 win over Ohio State on Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. |
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01-15-19 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina -13 | 69-75 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (644) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (643). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (12-4) looks to bounce-back from an 83-62 loss to Louisville on Saturday despite being an 11-point favorite. Notre Dame (11-5) enters this game coming off a 69-66 victory over Boston College as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. |
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01-14-19 | Texas +7.5 v. Kansas | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (873) plus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (874). THE SITUATION: Texas (10-6) looks to bounce-back from a 68-62 upset loss to Texas Tech as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Kansas (14-2) has won straight games as well as four of their last five games after their 73-68 win at Baylor on Saturday. |
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01-14-19 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 146 | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (869) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (870). THE SITUATION: Florida State (13-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 80-78 loss to Duke as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Pittsburgh (11-5) has also lost two of their last three contests with their 86-80 loss at NC State on Saturday as an 11-point underdog. |
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01-12-19 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco +9.5 | 96-83 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (758) minus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (757). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-2) has won seven of their last eight games with their 72-69 win at Pepperdine last Saturday as an 8-point favorite. Gonzaga (15-2) has won six in a row with their 67-36 blowout win over Pacific on Thursday as a 25.5-point favorite. |
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01-11-19 | Purdue v. Wisconsin -3 | 84-80 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (806) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (805). Wisconsin (11-4) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 71-52 win at Penn State as a 1.5-point favorite. Purdue (9-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 77-59 loss at Michigan State as a 7-point underdog. |
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01-11-19 | Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Kentucky Norse (804) minus the points versus the Wright State Raiders (803). Northern Kentucky (13-4) has won five of their last six games with their 95-73 win at Detroit last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Wright State (8-9) looks to build off their 89-73 win at Oakland last Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. |
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01-10-19 | UCLA v. Oregon -3 | 87-84 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (646) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (645). THE SITUATION: Oregon (9-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 77-72 upset loss at home to Oregon State on Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. UCLA (9-6) has won their last two games after their 98-83 win over California last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. |
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01-10-19 | East Carolina v. Memphis -15 | 72-78 | Loss | -110 | 0 h 17 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (648) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (647). THE SITUATION: Memphis (9-6) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 90-77 loss at Houston as an 8.5-point underdog. East Carolina (8-6) has won two of their last three games after their 72-71 upset win at home over Cincinnati as a big 17.5-point underdog. |
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01-10-19 | South Alabama v. Arkansas State -2 | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (638) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (637). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (7-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 85-75 loss at UL-Monroe as a 7.5-point underdog. South Alabama (9-6) has won five of their last six games with their 84-77 win over Coast Carolina as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. |
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01-09-19 | Marquette v. Creighton -3 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Creighton Bluejays (800) minus the points versus the Marquette Golden Panthers (799). Creighton (10-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 84-69 loss at Butler as a 4.5-point underdog. Marquette (12-3) has won nine of their last ten games after their 70-52 win over Xavier on Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. |
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01-08-19 | Missouri State v. Indiana State OVER 147.5 | 72-57 | Loss | -109 | 0 h 2 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Missouri State Bears (623) and the Indiana State Sycamores (624). THE SITUATION: Missouri State (6-9) has lost two straight games after their upset 82-66 loss to Valparaiso on Saturday as a 5-point favorite. Indiana State (9-5) snapped their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 65-60 win over Bradley as a 3.5-point favorite. |
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01-08-19 | Iowa State v. Baylor +2.5 | Top | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (606) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (605). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (12-2) has won five straight games after their 77-60 win over Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Baylor (8-5) looks to bounce-back from their 85-81 loss at TCU as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. |
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01-06-19 | Indiana v. Michigan UNDER 131 | 63-74 | Loss | -112 | 0 h 22 m | Show | |
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Hoosiers (809) and the Michigan Wolverines (810). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-2) has won seven straight games after their 73-65 win over Illinois on Thursday as an 11-point favorite. Michigan (14-0) remained undefeated this season with their 68-55 win over Penn State as an 11-point favorite on Thursday. |
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01-05-19 | Georgia v. Tennessee UNDER 148.5 | 50-96 | Win | 100 | 0 h 15 m | Show | |
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (667) and the Tennessee Volunteers (668). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 91-72 win over UMass as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (11-1) has won seven straight contests with their 96-53 win over Tennessee Tech as a big 33-point favorite last Saturday. |
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01-04-19 | Ball State v. Toledo OVER 151.5 | Top | 79-64 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (805) and the Toledo Rockets (806). Ball State (9-4) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 116-57 win over Delaware State last Saturday as a 29.5-point favorite. Toledo (12-1) looks to build off their 77-45 win over Penn on Saturday as a 4-point favorite. |
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12-31-18 | Northern Colorado v. Portland State OVER 155 | Top | 73-60 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Northern Colorado Bears (763) and the Portland State Vikings (764). THE SITUATION: Northern Colorado (7-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Saturday with their 70-65 victory at Sacramento State as a 2-point favorite. Portland State (5-6) has lost three straight games with their 76-71 loss to Cal-State Bakersfield as a 1-point favorite back on December 20th. |
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12-29-18 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -3 | Top | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (650) minus the points versus the St. John’s Red Storm (649). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (9-3) has five straight games after their 78-74 upset win at Maryland last Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog. St. John’s (12-0) remained undefeated this season last week with their 104-82 win over Sacred Heart as a 20-point favorite. |
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12-28-18 | Texas-Arlington v. Texas UNDER 136 | Top | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UT-Arlington Mavericks (817) and the Texas Longhorns (818). THE SITUATION: UT-Arlington (4-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak last Friday with their 75-70 win at Cal-Poly SLO in a pick ‘em contest. Texas (7-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Friday in a 71-65 upset loss to Providence as a 7-point favorite. |
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12-20-18 | Texas Tech +10 v. Duke | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (603) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (604). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (10-0) remained one of the nine undefeated teams in College Basketball with their 82-48 win over Abilene Christian on December 15th. Duke (10-1) has won five straight games with their 101-50 victory over Princeton on Tuesday as a 28.5-point favorite. These two teams play on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden. |
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12-17-18 | Rider v. Washington State -2 | 80-94 | Win | 101 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (778) minus the points versus the Rider Broncs (777). THE SITUATION: Washington State (5-3) looks to bounce-back from a 95-90 loss at home to Montana State back on December 9th as an 11.5-point favorite. Rider (4-3) looks to build off their 69-50 win over Robert Morris back on December 5th where they were 12.5-point favorites. |
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12-11-18 | Colorado v. New Mexico +5 | Top | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (606) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (605). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (4-3) looks to bounce-back from an 85-60 loss on Friday to Saint Mary’s as an 8.5-point underdog in the Hall of Fame Classic that was played at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Colorado (7-1) has won five straight games with their 84-72 win over Illinois-Chicago last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. |
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12-08-18 | Toledo v. Marshall -2.5 | 75-74 | Loss | -105 | 0 h 25 m | Show | |
At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (750) minus the point(s) versus the Toledo Rockets (749). THE SITUATION: Marshall (5-3) looks to bounce-back from a 93-82 loss at Duquesne as a 1-point favorite back on Wednesday. Toledo (8-1) has won six games in a row after their 101-57 blowout victory over Detroit as 15-point favorites. |
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12-07-18 | TCU v. USC UNDER 150 | 96-61 | Loss | -105 | 0 h 13 m | Show | |
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (527) and the USC Trojans (528). THE SITUATION: TCU (6-1) has won three games in a row with their 67-59 win at SMU on Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite. USC (5-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 73-61 loss to Nevada as a 6-point underdog. |
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12-07-18 | New Mexico +9 v. St. Mary's | Top | 60-85 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Mexico Lobos (525) plus the points versus the Saint Mary’s Gaels (526). THE SITUATION: New Mexico (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 100-65 loss at in-state rival New Mexico State as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Saint Mary’s (5-4) has won two straight games with their 93-61 win over Bethune Cookman as a 19.5-point favorite on Tuesday. |
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12-06-18 | Iowa State v. Iowa +2.5 | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (714) plus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (713). THE SITUATION: Iowa (6-2) looks to bounce-back from an ugly 90-68 loss at Michigan State as an 11-point underdog on Monday. Iowa State (7-1) has won four straight games after they defeated North Dakota State on Monday with their 81-59 victory as a 21.5-point favorite. |
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12-06-18 | Maryland v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (708) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (707). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) has lost two straight as well as three of their last four games after their 76-57 loss at Michigan last Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog. Maryland (7-1) enters this game coming off a 66-59 win over Penn State last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. |
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12-05-18 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 144 | Top | 77-67 | Push | 0 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (529) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (530). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-1) enters this game coming off their 79-59 win over Minnesota as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Illinois (2-6) has lost their last two games with their 75-60 loss at Nebraska as a 13-point underdog at Nebraska. |
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11-28-18 | North Carolina v. Michigan -3 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (762) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (761). THE SITUATION: Michigan (6-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-55 win over UT-Chattanooga last Friday as a 32.5-point favorite. North Carolina (6-1) comes off a 94-78 win over UCLA last Friday in the consolation match of the Las Vegas Invitational. |
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11-28-18 | William & Mary v. Marshall -8 | 64-84 | Win | 100 | 0 h 14 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (732) minus the points versus the William & Mary Pride (731). Marshall (4-1) looks to rebound from a 104-67 loss at Maryland last Friday as a 9-point underdog. William & Mary (2-4) snapped their four-game losing streak last Saturday with their 87-85 upset win over Saint Joseph’s as a 4.5-point underdog. |
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11-22-18 | Auburn v. Arizona UNDER 152.5 | Top | 73-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
At 11:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (577) and the Arizona Wildcats (578). THE SITUATION: Auburn (4-1) lost in the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational last night by a 78-72 score to Duke as 11-point underdogs. Arizona (4-1) then lost in the Semifinals of this tournament to Gonzaga by a 91-74 score as an 11-point underdog as well. |
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11-20-18 | Arizona v. Gonzaga -10 | Top | 74-91 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show |
At 10:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (748) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (747). THE SITUATION: Arizona (4-0) reached the Semifinals of the Maui Invitational with their 71-66 win over Iowa State last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Gonzaga (4-0) matched that achievement by defeating Illinois by an 84-78 score last night as a 15.5-point favorite. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (601) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (602). I have joked that they may cancel the game on Monday since it seems as if Villanova has already been coronated as National Champion after easily winning what many dubbed the de-facto championship game against Kansas. If the Wildcats come close to going 13 of 26 from behind the arc against the Wolverines in the first-half like they did against the Jayhawks, then they will be crowned champion. Then again, if Maryland-Baltimore County goes 13 of 26 from downtown, they would likely defeat even this Villanova team. Successful handicapping over the long-term is about maintaining perspective — so here are some things to keep in mind. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan (33-7) ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. Remember, while the Wildcats scored at a 1.34 Points-Per-Possession rate on Saturday, it remains Michigan who had the most explosive offensive effort in this tournament when they scored at a 1.38 PPP rate against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16. And if the Wolverines approach making 50% of their 3-point shots, they will most likely be cutting down the nets. The potential Villanova emotional letdown is compounded by playing an outstanding defensive team with the Wolverines now ranking 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency — and defense is more consistent than 3-point shooting from game-to-game. Michigan is an eye-popping 14-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They swept a Michigan State team that many had also coronated as the inevitable National Champion — and that Purdue team they played three times with a healthy Isaac Haas that I thought might have been the best team in the country. John Beilein’s complicated offense is very difficult to prepare for with a short turnaround in tournament action. And while the Wolverines have not been an underdog since the Big Ten Tournament when the oddsmakers expected the Spartans and Boilermakers to defeat them, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Furthermore, I have seen at least one advanced analytics projection site that project this to be a 2-point game based off the metrics since January between these two teams based on their numbers against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. We are certainly getting the value with the underdog tonight. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 145.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan Wolverines (601) and the Villanova (602). Villanova (35-4) made 13 of their 26 shots from behind the arc in the first-half on Saturday en route to their 95-79 win over Kansas. The memories of the Wildcats’ explosive first-half while making 55.4% of their shots and scoring 95 points against the Jayhawks will compel many bettors take expect another high scoring game and take the Over. The Wildcats 3-point shooting quickly regressed back to their mean in the second-half as they made only 5 of their 14 (35.7%) shots from 3-point land. And while Kansas and Michigan hold their opponents to just a 33.3% and 33.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line, this Wolverines team does a much better job in contesting these shots. Michigan ranks 5th in the nation with their opponents taking only 29.8% of their shots from the field from downtown which is far lower than Kansas’ 39.1% 3-point attempt to field goal attempt ratio. The Jayhawks simply did not execute on defense in the opening moments of that game — and that combined with Villanova’s Omari Spellman exposing Kansas big man Udoka Azubuike out on the perimeter. It will be much harder to do that against Michigan who have already played three wars against a Purdue team that has a similar offensive profile as this Wildcats team. Mo Wagner is much more mobile than Azubuike which will help his defensive assignment against Spellman. So while Villanova will cover the point spread if they shoot 50% from 3-point land, there is simply plenty of reasons to conclude that was an outlier performance. I expect both teams to be nervy in this game given the pressure of the moment. Both of these teams also sacrifice offensive rebounding for getting back on defense — so the tempo of this game can quickly become a slower, half-court affair. The Wolverines only rebound 25.6% of their missed shots which is 270th in the nation. And while Villanova ranks 149th in the nation with a healthier 29.4% offensive rebound rate, that number dropped significantly to a 25.2% mark in Big East play. The Wildcats have covered all five of their games in the NCAA Tournament as the favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova has also played 7 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the number set in the 145 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less between games. And while the Wolverines hold their opponents to just 62.9 PPG, Villanova has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that do not allow more than 64 PPG. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas +5 v. Villanova | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (813) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (814). Villanova (34-4) has covered the point spread in all four games as the favorite so far in the NCAA Tournament after their 71-59 win over Texas Tech on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. But Red Raiders’ head coach Chris Beard may have discovered a flaw in the Wildcats’ offense as they host just 33.3% from the field while making only 4 of their 24 (16.7%) of their shots from behind the arc. Villanova head coach Jay Wright admitted as much this week — and Kansas’ Bill Self will certainly steal elements from that Texas Tech defensive plan. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. Villanova may very well win this game but I am expecting a very close game between these two heavyweights. The Wildcats have some weaknesses which will make it difficult for them to cover a 5-point or so point spread against elite competition. They are too dependent on shooting 3s which account for 47.1% of their field goal attempts — and they will be facing a Jayhawks’ team that holds their opponents to making just 32.7% of their 3-point attempts. Villanova does not do much in generating possessions if their 3s are not falling. They only pulled down 25.2% of their missed shots in Big East play while only forcing turnovers in 17.5% of their Big East opponent’s possessions. The Wildcats do not get to the free throw line either as they own an anemic 29.8% free throw attempt to field goal attempt ratio with that ranking 281st in the nation. On defense, this Villanova team ranks 14th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency at 94.6 — but that number was a much higher 105.7 in conference action. The Wildcats defense has struggled against playmaking guards — and Kansas has two of those. With their tallest rotational player being the 6’8 Omari Spellman and only going 6 or 7 deep in their rotation, this team has vulnerabilities. Furthermore, this basketball program has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the Semifinals in tournament action. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova UNDER 155 | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (813) and the Villanova Wildcats (814). This is an interesting clash between two teams that love to attempt 3-point shots. Kansas (31-7) is attempting more 3-pointers than ever under Bill Self with 41.4% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc which is 80th in the nation. Jay Wright has been having his team take advantage of the 3-point shot for years now — this year’s Wildcats are attempting 47.1% of their shots from 3-point land which is 14th most in the nation. This importance on the 3-point shot extends to the defensive end of the court where both teams emphasize defending against these shots. The Jayhawks hold their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark from inside the arc while Villanova limits their opponents to just a 32.2% field goal percentage from 3-point land. I see these similar styles clashing to produce a lower scoring game between these two heavyweights that will be feeling the pressure of the Final Four. Kansas made only 43.5% of their shots on Sunday in their 85-81 win in overtime over Duke as a 3.5-point underdog. The Jayhawks have then played 18 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 85 points. Kansas made 13 shots from 3-point land against the Blue Devils after making 10 shots from behind the arc in their previous game against Clemson — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in each of their last two games. Additionally, while the Wildcats outscore their opponents by +16.4 PPG, the Jayhawks have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG. |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan UNDER 130 | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811) and the Michigan Wolverines (812). This is a matchup between two teams that are in many ways mirror images of each other — and this clash of similar styles will likely result in a lower scoring game. The Ramblers and Wolverines play at a slower and methodical pace when on offense which is why the Total opened in the 128 range (having gone a bit then this week). Loyola-Chicago averages 65.2 possessions per game while Michigan averages 64.5 possessions per game with both marks being far below the 68.2 possessions per game national average. Both these teams have very good defenses — the Ramblers rank 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive while the Wolverines rank 4th in the nation in that metic. Both of these teams are also aggressive in finding scoring opportunities in transition from their opponent’s missed shots. However, both of these teams also sacrifice offensive rebounding so they can get back on defense — Loyola-Chicago is 332nd in the nation in offensive rebounding while Michigan is not much better at 274th in the nation. But with both teams racing back on defense to thwart the other team’s fast break opportunities, this shapes up to become a half court affair where both teams get only one shot per possession. Michigan (32-7) has scored over a 1.00 Points-Per-Possession rate only once in this tournament — and that was against a Texas A&M team that did not match up well given their two big men on the court. The Wolverines’ offense has struggled against more versatile defense that are comfortable switching off their multiple pick-and-rolls. The Ramblers’ are happy to quickly switch on defense with their smaller lineup of interchangeable parts. In their 58-54 win over Florida State in the Elite Eight, Michigan shot just 38.8% from the field while making only 4 of their 22 (18.2%) of their 3-point shots. But because they held the Seminoles to just 31.4% shooting, they were able to eke out that game. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Wolverines’ last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (812) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (811). Loyola-Chicago (32-5) pulled off their fourth straight upset victory in the NCAA Tournament with their 78-62 win over Kansas State last Saturday. The Ramblers were lights out from the field by making 57.4% of their shots which was tied for their best shooting performance in their last nine games. They also held the Wildcats to just a 34.8% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort in their last four contests. While this Cinderella with Sister Jean has been a great story for the sports media, the bubble will likely burst in a big way for this team on Saturday under the pressure and focus all week of the Final Four. This is a team that is not used to this type of scrutiny and attention. They also have not played a team all season as skilled as these Wolverines. Even in getting to the Final Four, Loyola-Chicago has had a fortuitous draw. In their four wins over Miami (FL), Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State, the highest-ranked team according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics were the Volunteers at 13th in the nation. Their best non-conference opponent was Florida that currently ranks 20th in the nation by Pomeroy. For comparison’s sake, Michigan has played six games against teams that Pomeroy ranks in his Top-Nine: Michigan State (twice), Purdue (three times) and North Carolina. As it is, the Ramblers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after an upset win by double-digits. And while they made 55.8% of their shots in their previous game against Nevada, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after making at least 55% of their shots in two straight contests. Furthermore, Loyola-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with five or six days of rest. |
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03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago +9.5 v. Northern Colorado | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) plus the points versus the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Illinois-Chicago (20-15) reached the Championship of the College Insider Tournament with their 67-51 upset win at Liberty as a 4.5-point underdog. The Flames have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Illinois-Chicago has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range. Additionally, the Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents. |
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03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Colorado OVER 157.5 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois-Chicago Flames (781) and the Northern Colorado Bears (782). Northern Colorado (25-12) reached the Championship Game of the College Insider Tournament on Wednesday with their 99-80 win over Sam Houston State as a 10.5-point favorite. The Bears made 59% of their shots in that game — they are torching the nets to close out the season by making 52.7% of their shots over their last five games. They are scoring 89.9 PPG on their home court this season while making 49.9% of their shots. Northern Colorado has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games on their home court Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, not only have the Bears played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring 80 points in their last game but they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last contest. Northern Colorado made 17 of their 30 (56.7%) shots from behind the arc on Wednesday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after making at least 13 shots from behind the arc in their last contest. Furthermore, the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big Sky Conference. |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah UNDER 135.5 | 82-66 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (711) and the Utah Utes (712). Utah (23-11) held Western Kentucky to just a 34.8% shooting percentage on Tuesday en route to their 69-64 upset win over the Hilltoppers as a 2-point underdog. That was the Utes’ second straight upset victory after they pulled that deed in the Quarterfinals of the NIT at Saint Mary’s. Utah has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after two straight upset wins. Additionally, the Utes have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Utah has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have seen the Under go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Utes’ style of play is to sacrifice offensive rebounding to get back on defense. They have pulled down only 7 and 3 offensive rebounds in their last two games — and they have then played 18 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not pulling down more than 9 offensive rebounds in two straight games. And while the Nittany Lions make 45.9% of their shots, Utah has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 45% from the field. The Utes have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah +4.5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (712) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (711). Penn State (25-13) was on fire from behind the 3-point line on Tuesday as they nailed 11 of their 20 shots from downtown en route to their 75-60 blowout win over Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite. But such a strong effort might have set up the Nittany Lions for a letdown in this Championship Game — especially with them laying a handful of points. Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a victory by at least 15 points. The Nittany Lions went into halftime with a 42-23 lead as those first 20 minutes of the game being the most important moments of that contest. However, Penn State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after leading by at least 15 points at halftime of their last game. Additionally, the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 55 games after making at least 50% of their shots from behind the arc in their last game — and this includes five of these last eight situations. Furthermore, Penn State has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests. But the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three straight contests. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games including five of these last six situations. |
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03-28-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas -3 | 55-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (518) minus the points versus the San Francisco Dons (517). North Texas (18-18) returns home for Game Two — and potentially Game Three — of the College Basketball Invitational Tournament after dropping Game One of this best-of-three event on Monday with their 72-62 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point favorite. The Mean Green made only 39.1% of their shots in that game which was their worst offensive effort in their last seven contests. They made only 4 of their 21 (19.1%) shots from behind the arc. North Texas has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they are 12-6 this season with an average winning margin of +9.9 PPG. They should shoot better tonight as they are making 48.2% of their shots on their home court while nailing 36.6% of their 3-pointers. The Mean Green did their job on the defensive end of the court as the Dons only made 38.2% of their shots. That was actually the highest field goal percentage for one of their opponents in their last four games. They have held their last five opponents to just a 38.4% shooting percentage. Moving forward, North Texas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams outside Conference USA. |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Liberty -5 | Top | 67-51 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (724) minus the points versus the Illinois-Chicago Flames (723). Illinois-Chicago (19-15) reached the Semifinals of the College Insider Tournament with their 83-81 upset win at Austin Peay last Wednesday as a 4-point underdog. The Flames nailed 10 of their 23 (43.5%) shots from 3-point land to help them pull the upset. That came on the heels of their 84-61 win over St. Francis-PA where they made 10 of 24 (41.7%) shots from 3-point land. Illinois-Chicago has then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after making at least 10 shots from behind the arc in two straight games. They are only shooting 34.9% from 3-point land when on the road — so the Regression Gods may be making an appearance for this team tonight. Furthering that thought, while the Flames have scored at least 83 points in their last games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their 10 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last two contests. Additionally, while Illinois-Chicago has scored at least 75 points in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 75 points in four straight games. Now this team stays on the road where they are being outscored by -3.8 PPG. They were fortunate to see Austin Peay miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc — but Liberty was 2nd in the Big South by making 38.8% of their 3-pointers this season. Illinois-Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Another concern for this team — made more worrisome when they are playing in hostile environment — is their looseness with the basketball as they ranked 312th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.8% of their possessions. This is another area that Liberty can take advantage of as they forced turnovers in 19.1% of their opponent’s possessions in conference play. This also helps illuminate why Illinois-Chicago is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-27-18 | Mississippi State v. Penn State -2.5 | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (780) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779). Mississippi State (25-11) enters this game flying high after they destroyed Louisville in their building last Tuesday by a 79-56 score despite being a 6-point underdog. The Bulldogs may be due for a letdown in this game — they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while the Bulldogs have scored 78 points in their previous game at Baylor in this tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. Mississippi State is a big team but they are vulnerable on the defensive glass. The Bulldogs rank 266th in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.7% of their missed shots. This is an area that the Nittany Lions will likely take advantage of as they rebound 31.4% of their missed shots which ranks 74th in the nation. Additionally, this is Mississippi State’s third straight game on the road where they are just 6-9 with a losing point differential. They make only 44.2% of their shots on the road. And while this Bulldogs team has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. |
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03-27-18 | Mississippi State v. Penn State UNDER 136 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (779) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (780). Mississippi State (25-11) reached the Semifinals of the NIT with their 79-56 upset win at Louisville as a 6-point underdog last Tuesday. The Bulldogs held the Cardinals to just a 35% field goal percentage in that game. This Mississippi State plays very good defense — they rank 31st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their last five opponents are shooting just 40.1% from the field. The Bulldogs have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Mississippi State has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning three straight games — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 56 games on the road Under the Total after winning three straight games. Additionally, while the Bulldogs have played their last two games on the road as an underdog, they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after playing two straight games on the road as a dog. Furthermore, Mississippi State has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah UNDER 140 | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (777) and the Utah Utes (778). Utah (22-11) ha won three straight games after their 67-58 upset win at Saint Mary’s last Wednesday as a 6-point favorite. The Utes have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Utah attempted only 6 free throws in that contest with the Gaels — and they have then played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where they did not attempt more than 7 free throws. They also pulled down only 3 offensive rebounds in that game — and they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not rebounding more than 5 offensive boards. This Utah team shoots tons of 3s (46.2% of their field goal attempts — 21st in the nation) while playing at a snail’s pace. The Utes average 65.5 possessions per game which is 299th in the nation. Moving forward, Utah has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in eight days. They have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 6 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Under is 4-1-1. |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah +2 | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (778) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (777). Utah (22-11) reached the Semifinals of the NIT with their 67-58 upset win at Saint Mary’s despite being a 6-point underdog in that game. The Utes have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss on the road. Utah has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after winning at least two straight games. The Utes are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And in their last 9 games after seeing less than 125 combined points scored in their last game, Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 contests. Now the Total is set in the 140 point range for tonight’s contest — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Additionally, while the Utes committed on 8 turnovers in that game against the Gaels, they have then covered the point spread in a decisive 37 of their last 54 games after not committing more than 8 turnovers in their last contest. Furthermore, Utah is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco Dons (742) minus the points versus the North Texas Mean Green (741). North Texas (18-17) reached the Finals of this Best-of-Three College Basketball Invitational tournament with their blowout 90-68 win over Jacksonville State. We had the Mean Green in that game — and it was very nice to see them make a season-high 61.5% of their shots in that contest. But this is a team that shoots only 42.6% of their shots away from home — and they will be playing a Dons’ team that place tough on the defensive end of the court by holding their visitors to just a 41.9% field goal percentage. As it is, North Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 48 games after a game where they made at least 50% of their shots — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in six of their last seven games after nailing at least half their shots in their last contest. This is an improving young team under first-year head coach Grant McCasland. They had previously blown out Mercer on their home court by a 97-67 score in their previous game in this tournament. But the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after registering two straight blowout wins by at least 20 points. The offense has exploded for them to score at least 90 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games after scoring at least 75 points in three straight contests. Quick first-half efforts have helped this team as they have raced out to score 57 and 47 points in the first 20 minutes of their last two contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 first-half points in two straight games. Playing in a hostile environments has been an issue for this team — and they turn the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions in Conference USA play which was 12th in that conference. Furthermore, the Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing their their last two games on their home court. |
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03-25-18 | Duke v. Kansas UNDER 155 | 81-85 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Duke Blue Devils (721) and the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Duke (29-7) has won five of their last six games with their 69-65 win over Syracuse on Friday as an 11-point favorite. The Blue Devils have then played 9 of their 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Surprisingly, the Orange shot 49.1% from the field in that game which was the first time that any opponent made more than 46.2% of their shots against them in their last 21 games going all the way back to January 6th (when I don’t think they had moved to the 2-3 zone that dramatically improved their level of play on the defensive end of the court since it allowed Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter to stay in the point). Duke did hold the Orange to just 27 points in the first half on Friday after limiting Rhode Island to just 28 first-half points in the Round of 32 — and they have then played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in the first-half of their last two contests. They will be challenged by this Jayhawks team that makes 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc en route to their 81.4 PPG scoring average. But the Blue Devils have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that shoot at least 37% from behind the arc. Additionally, Duke has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 48 games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 150 to 159.5 point range, the Blue Devils have played 32 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-25-18 | Duke -2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (721) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Kansas (30-7) reached the Elite Eight with their 80-76 win over Clemson on Friday. But now this Jayhawks team gets exposed against a superior opponent with more talent and a more reliable system of play in the Blue Devils. These Jayhawks are not one of Bill Self’s better teams. They lost five games in Big 12 conference play but continued their regular season title streak in large part due to the injury of Texas Tech’s Keenan Evans which triggered the Red Raiders’ four-game losing streak. Kansas’ problems start on defense where they ranked just 46th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency which is the first time they were outside the Top-24 going back to at least 2002 (kenpom’s data does not go farther back). They were 6th in the Big 12 with Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 108.9 which projects that opponents would score at a 1.09 Points-Per-Possession rate. They only outscored conference opponents by +0.04 PPP. Even worse, because this team plays with four guards, they face a matchup nightmare when encountering a team with multiple big men. Hello, Duke with Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter. It is simply a matchup nightmare that 6’8 Svi Mykhailiuk and his 205-lb frame will be required to play defense against either the 6’11 Bagley at 234 lbs or Carter at 6’10 and 259 lbs. The Jayhawks were 7th in the Big 12 by allowing their opponents to make 51.2% of their shots inside the arc. Kansas is likely to get destroyed on the boards as well as they allow their opponents to make 31.5% of their missed shots which is 295th in the nation. The Blue Devils rebound 39.2% of their missed shots which is the top mark in the country. Furthermore, the Jayhawks do not specialize in getting more scoring opportunities in offensive rebounding nor forcing turnovers — and they are awful at getting to the free throw line with a free throw rate which is 329th in the nation. When they do get to the charity stripe, they made only 69% of these shots in Big 12 play (12th in the conference) — and they have a severe liability there with Udoku Azubuike who shoots a mere 41.1% from the line. The Blue Devils do a fine job of defending inside the arc — they hold opponents to just a 45.3% shooting mark with their 2-point shots (17th in the nation) and that mark lowered to a 44.1% mark against ACC foes. To win this game, the Jayhawks will have to make a bunch of 3s — and they do take 41.0% of the field goal attempts from behind the arc. But Duke defends the perimeter quite well using that 2-3 zone which pushes those 3-point attempts farther back — they ranked 20th in the nation with an opponent’s 3-point field goal percentage of 31.9%. I just don’t think the Jayhawks have enough diversity in their scoring options outside 3-point shooting. As it is, this team is due for a letdown. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 6 points or less — and after their 4-point win over Seton Hall in the Round of 32, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two straight by 6 points or less. Furthermore, Kansas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games if they have won at least twelve of their previous fifteen games (12-3 in their last 15) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least four straight games. |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova | 59-71 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) plus the points versus the Villanova Wildcats (720). Villanova (33-4) pulled away in a fast-paced and physical game with West Virginia on Friday in their 90-78 victory as a 5.5-point favorite. It might be a little more difficult for the Wildcats to recover from that contest that saw 76 possessions for both teams which included a lot of extra work to beat the full-court pressure of “Press Virginia.” As it is, Villanova has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Wildcats have covered all three of their games in this NCAA Tournament as the favorite laying points. But Villanova has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. The one type of team that has given this Wildcats group trouble this season are strong defensive units with elite point guard. This describes to a T — they are 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and they are led by senior point guard Keenan Evans who can single-handedly put his team on his back. The Red Raiders probably would have won the Big 12 if not for Evans toe injury that kept him out of seven games during which Texas Tech lost five of them. |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 144.5 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (719) and the Villanova Wildcats (720). Texas Tech (27-9) has won five of their last six games with their 78-65 upset win over Purdue on Friday. The Red Raiders made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was actually the best offensive performance in their last five contests. They also held the Boilermakers to just a 44.8% shooting percentage which sounds pretty good (especially against an offensive powerhouse like Purdue) — yet that was their highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. Texas Tech is a defense-first team that likes to play at a slower pace. They average 66.7 possessions per game which is the 247th fewest in the nation. Chris Beard’s team is 3rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While they are facing a Michigan team that scores 87.0 PPG, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams that score at least 84.0 PPG. The Red Raiders have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total in Tournament action — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in the last 42 games on the road with no more than one day of rest, they have played 28 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (515) and the Michigan Wolverines (516). Florida State (23-11) flexed their muscles on defense on Thursday in their 75-60 upset win over Gonzaga as a 6-point underdog. The Seminoles held the Bulldogs to just a 33.9% field goal percentage in that game while stymieing them to score at a low 0.86 Points-Per-Possession rate. Florida State has significantly improved their play on defense in this NCAA Tournament. They opened their tournament by limiting Missouri to scoring at just a 0.78 PPP rate — and then they frustrated an offensive powerhouse in Xavier to scoring at just a 1.01 PPP rate. We had the Under in the Seminoles’ game on Thursday after discovering that their head coach Leonard Hamilton had overseen his team start playing at a slower rate. For the season, Florida State averages 71.4 possessions per game which is the 41st most in the nation. But this team slowed down to more closely resemble the style of play his teams were playing a few years ago. Prior to Thursday, the Seminoles three tournament games in the ACC Tournament and the Big Dance saw them have 69 possessions in each game. Against a Gonzaga team that likes to play fast — they saw 71 and 75 possessions in their first two NCAA Tourney games — Florida State saw just 70 possessions. Frankly, the oddsmakers (or, more precisely, the betting public) have not caught up to this slowing down of pace that the Seminoles will be happy to play against elite competition that can match their depth and athleticism. Florida State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Seminoles have also played 5 of the last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Florida State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 12 games in the NCAA Tournament, the Seminoles have played 9 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (516) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (515). Florida State (23-11) pulled off their second straight upset victory on Thursday when they stunned Gonzaga by a 75-60 score as a 6-point underdog. We had the Bulldogs in that game — and we were very disappointed to discover the news that Gonzaga’s star sophomore Killian Tillie was unable to play in that game due to an injury he suffered in practice. That was a fortunate set of circumstances for the Bulldogs — but their bubble looks ready to burst tonight against a very balanced Wolverines team that can match them with their depth. As it is, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games as an underdog. Florida State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. I think the Seminoles’ head coach Leonard Hamilton is very underrated — I was very impressed with his tactics and demeanor in the second-half of their upset win over Xavier last Sunday. The strength of this team is their depth — they played ten players on Thursday who logged in at least ten minutes. But Michigan matches that depth. Lets ignore their blowout win over Texas A&M on Thursday given their big lead. In their buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday, the Wolverines had eight players log in at least 10 minutes with a ninth player in Jaaron Simmons being a fifth-year senior who was the best player for Ohio last year who still grabs a few minutes a game as the third point guard in their rotation. The Seminoles simply do not do enough things well to compete against an elite unit like these Wolverines. Their defense was mediocre at best in the ACC where they ranked 13th in Adjusted Efficiency. They allowed ACC foes to make a whopping 40.4% of their 3-point shots which was 14th in the conference. On offense, they made only 33.0% of their 3-pointers which was 13th in the ACC. Florida State generates much of their points from drawing fouls as they led the ACC in free throw rate. But John Beilein teams generally do not commit many personal fouls. This year’s Michigan team is fouling more than in previous seasons — but they are still only averaging 16 personal fouls per game. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games after 15 games into the season against teams that did not commit more than 17 personal fouls per game. Furthermore, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range, the Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests. |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Kansas State OVER 126 | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
At 6:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) and the Kansas State Wildcats (514). Kansas State (25-11) has won five of their last six games with their 61-58 upset win over Kentucky as a 5-point underdog on Thursday. The Wildcats eked out that game despite making only 35.2% of their shots which was their worst offensive effort in their last eleven games. Kansas State is winning with their defense — they have played all three of their games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. But with this Total dropping into the mid-120s, it is time be take the contrarian play with the Over. The Wildcats have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Kansas State generates much of their offense from stealing the basketball. They are 3rd in the nation by averaging 12.0 Steals-Per-Game — and this is an area the Ramblers are vulnerable in as they allowing their opponents generate a steal in 10.1% of their possessions (313th in the nation). These steals produce transition scoring opportunities. The Wildcats have 11 and 13 steals in their last two games — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after earning at least 10 steals in two straight games. Additionally, Kansas State has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court with the Total set below 130. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em, the Wildcats have played 5 of these games Over the Total. |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1 v. Kansas State | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
At 6:07 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (513) plus (or minus if the point spread moves before tip off) the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (514). The similarities between these two teams just begins with the notion that neither of these 11th seeded and 9th seeded teams in the South Region were expected to reach the Elite Eight. Both of these teams are extremely well coached groups that emphasize defense first while playing at a slow pace. Neither team emphasizes rebounding although the Ramblers do a much better job in protecting their offensive glass. The Wildcats create more scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers — but the Ramblers counter that by being very good with their 3-point shooting. Loyola-Chicago (31-5) has the edge in this matchup. Three of their losses were without junior point guard Clayton Cluster available — so they are actually 31-2 when he is healthy and on the court. With five upperclassmen in their rotation, the Rambers are an experienced group. And this Loyola-Chicago team just has more reliable ways to generate offense. The Ramblers are 15th in the nation with a 39.9% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they also make 56.6% of their shots inside the arc (12th in the nation) with an intricate set of patient but effective maneuvers that helped them put on a shooting clinic in the second-half of their 68-68 victory over Nevada on Thursday. Loyola-Chicago has pulled off three straight upset victories in this tournament — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset victory. Additionally, the Ramblers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside the Missouri Valley Conference — and they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral court. And in their last 8 games as an underdog, Loyola-Chicago has covered the point spread 7 times. |
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03-24-18 | Central Michigan v. Liberty -2.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (518) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (517). Liberty (21-14) has won four of their last five games after their 65-52 win over North Carolina A&T way back on March 12th as a 12-point favorite. The Flames will benefit from the extra time off as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 boarded games when playing with at least seven days of rest. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 boarded games after a point spread win. The Flames went into halftime with a low-scoring 23-21 lead in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight boarded games after failing to score at least 25 points in the first half of their last game. Liberty gets to host this game on their home court where they are 11-6 this season with an average winning margin of +12.8 PPG. They hold their visitors to scoring just 58.7 PPG on a low 38.8% field goal percentage at home. The Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on their home court — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Liberty does an outstanding job of protecting their defensive glass — they are second in the nation by rebounding 80.1% of opponent’s missing shots. This will frustrate the Chippewas who led the Mid-American Conference in offensive rebounding. Additionally, Liberty has held their last five opponents to just a 35.3% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Flames have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 boarded games as the favorite. |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:57 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (873) plus the point(s) versus the Purdue Boilermakers (874). Purdue (30-6) has won seven of their last eight games with their 76-73 win over Butler as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The Boilermakers won that game despite being without their anchor in the middle in Isaac Haas who suffered a broken elbow in their previous game against Cal-State Fullerton. His presence was missed in the middle as the Bulldogs made 60% of their shots inside the arc. Purdue does have a capable backup at center in another seven-footer in Matt Haarms — but the problem is that he cannot log a ton of minutes. He played 29 minutes against Butler which meant that the Boilermakers which left them very vulnerable inside the arc for those remaining 11 minutes. Depth is now a significant issue for this team that was riding high using four perimeter players surrounding their two seven-footers that head coach Matt Painter rotated between. As it is, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. I have two other concerns for this team. First, they are now even more dependent on their 3-point shooting after losing a player in Haas who was leading the nation in post-up points. Purdue takes over 40% of their shots from behind the arc — and while they have made 43% of these shots so far in the Big Dance, they are now facing a Red Raiders team that holds their opponents to just a 32.7% shooting mark behind the arc (41st in the nation). Second, the Boilermakers do not protect their defensive glass as opponents pull down 27.9% of their missed shots (137th in the nation). Texas Tech crashes the glass as they pull down 33.2% of their misses (45th in the nation). Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘e, the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests. |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke -11 | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
At 9:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). Duke (28-7) has won four of their last five games with their 87-62 blowout win over Rhode Island on Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. The Blue Devils have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points. Duke now has the challenge in facing the Syracuse 2-3 zone — but they have a host of advantages that most of the Orange’s opponents have not enjoyed. First, the Blue Devils have already played Syracuse this season — with the results being a 60-44 victory for the Dukies. Second, Duke has the benefit of five days to adjust from that experience and prepare for this rematch. Third, the Blue Devils deploy a similar zone defense themselves which should help them appreciate the intricacies of what the Orange are trying to accomplish. In fact, it is the improved Duke defense that makes me most bullish on the Blue Devils. Syracuse made only 31.8% of their shots in that first meeting while making only 28.6% of their shots from behind the arc in that first encounter. Duke should also own the offensive glass against this Orange team that sacrifices defensive rebounding to extend their zone out to the perimeter. The Blue Devils lead the nation by rebounding 39.2% of their missed shots — and Syracuse allows their opponents to pull down 30.0% of their missed shots (242nd in the nation). Duke is also making 63% of their shots inside the arc in this tournament with their dynamic young frontcourt. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Duke has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke UNDER 133.5 | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
At 9:37 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (875) and the Duke Blue Devils (876). Syracuse (23-13) continued to refine their 2-3 zone defense on Sunday in their 55-53 upset win over Michigan State as a 10-point underdog. The Orange held the Spartans to just a 25.8% shooting percentage in that game. In their three NCAA Tournament games, Syracuse is allowing less than 54 PPG. The Orange will clearly want to continue to slow the tempo of this game down and hope the pressure of the moment will get to the Blue Devils as it did with the big favorites in Michigan State. The Syracuse zone has held these three opponents to making only 11 of their 54 (20.3%) shots from behind the arc. The Orange have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to no better than a 33% field goal percentage. It is this stingy defense that has kept this Syracuse team competitive as they are making only 37.8% of their shots in the Big Dance themselves. The Orange have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Syracuse has also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Additionally, the Orange have played 6 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -4.5 | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
At 7:37 PM on Friday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (872) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (871). West Virginia (26-10) has won four of their last five games after their 94-71 win over Marshall on Sunday. The Mountaineers held the Thundering Herd to just a 39.3% shooting percentage which was the lowest opponent field goal percentage they have seen in their last eight games. But Marshall still nailed 12 of their 26 (46.2%) shots from behind the arc as opponents continued to exploit West Virginia’s suspect perimeter defense. The Mountaineers rank 300th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.5% of their shots from 3-point range — and that is a scary proposition when facing this Villanova team that ranks 11th in the nation by making 40.2% of their shots from downtown. The Wildcats stack up as a more polished version of the Kansas team that defeated West Virginia three times this season. “Press Virginia” wants to force turnovers to create more scoring opportunities — they rank 2nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.4% of their opponent’s possessions. But led by a rock-solid point guard in Jalen Brunson, Villanova turns the ball over in just 14.7% of their possessions which is 11th best in the nation (more on this below). If — and when — the Wildcats beat the Mountaineers’ press, then two things are likely to happen: open 3-point shots or getting fouled. West Virginia is a lousy 337th in the nation in defensive free throw rate — and this may be a gift for this Wildcats team that does not get to the line as much as they would like but still ranks 14th in the nation by making 77.4% of these shots. This is simply a bad matchup for Bob Huggins’ team since Villanova can handle their press. And it is very interesting to note that his Mountaineers’ have exited the Big Dance in Round of the 64 or the Sweet 16 in three straight seasons — and both those rounds share the similarity of affording their opponents more time to prepare for the West Virginia press. As it is, West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a point spread win. And while the Mountaineers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. Additionally, while West Virginia has won seven of their last nine games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas -4.5 | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Kansas Jayhawks (878) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (877). Clemson (25-9) looks to build off the momentum of their easy 84-53 upset win over Auburn as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. The Tigers held those Tigers to just a 25.8% field goal percentage in what was their best defensive performance of the season. But Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset victory by at least 15 points. The Tigers raced out to a 24-point halftime lead after taking a 12-point lead at the half in their first NCAA Tournament game against New Mexico State. Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after leading their previous two games by double-digits going into halftime. The Tigers’ blowout win over Auburn was aided by that team being without their best interior defender in the lanky Anfernee McLemore. Clemson is without their own top player in Donte’ Grantham who suffered a season ending injury last month. While the team is getting by without the 6’8 senior who was their best player, they entered the Big Dance scoring only 68 PPG since his injury after scoring 77 PPG with him in the mix. The Tigers have covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games which includes them failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games in those situations. Clemson has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when it is just their second game in seven days. And in their last 12 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas UNDER 143 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:07 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Clemson (25-9) reached the Sweet 16 with their 84-53 upset win over Auburn on Sunday. The Tigers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just a 25.8% shooting percentage in what was their best defensive effort of the season. Clemson should be able to maintain this level of defensive intensity — they rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and have held their first two NCAA Tournament opponents to 32% shooting. The Tigers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games while playing 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. It is on offense where the Tigers are likely to receive a visit from the Regression Gods after they made 51.6% of their shots in their first two games in the Big Dance including nailing 16 of their 40 (40%) shots from behind the arc. Clemson is not a strong offensive team — they ranked 11th in the ACC in Adjusted Efficiency. The Tigers shooting inside the arc has been the biggest surprise as they made 46 of their 80 (57.5%) 2-point shots after making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc in ACC play which ranked 10th in the conference. The season-ending injury to their best player in 6’9 Donte Grantham has really hurt the offensive effectiveness of this team. With Grantham on the court, Clemson was making 56.6% of their shots inside the arc — but without him, they see that number drop to just a 45.4% slip for their 2-pointers. They were scoring 77 PPG before Grantham’s injury but that number dropped to a 68 PPG clip for this team before they began the Big Dance. The Tigers benefited from playing New Mexico State and an Auburn team that suffered their own challenging season-ending injury in Anfernee McLemore who their best post defender. Moving forward, the Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in non-conference play. |
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03-22-18 | Florida State v. Gonzaga UNDER 153.5 | 75-60 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
At 10:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida State Seminoles (819) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820). At first and second glance, the Total for this game looked like a pass for me. On the one hand, both of these teams like to play at a blistering pace with the goal of increasing possessions which should benefit the perceived talent advantage both these teams believe they generally enjoy. However, both of these teams retain some personality traits that suggest they tend to play lower scoring games in situations like this. Upon a final review this afternoon, I uncovered sufficient evidence on the Florida State (22-11) side of the equation that triggers my investment on the Under. I don’t think Seminoles’ head coach Leonard Hamilton will necessarily think that his team has the talent edge versus the team that reached the NCAA Championship Game last year. Certainly Hamilton has to like the depth of his roster after he used eleven players last Sunday in their 75-70 upset win over Xavier as a 5.5-point favorite. And, unquestionably, Hamilton wanted to increase the pace of the game when his team was trailing by 12 points with 10:42 left in that game. But will Hamilton want to slow this game down if his team takes a lead in this game? That was his modus operandi for many years coaching this team. It is interesting to note that his team have seen the possessions per game drop to 69 in each of their three games in postseason play (including their one game in the ACC Tournament) despite their 71.5 possessions per game average. With expected better defensive play between these two teams and even 2-3 fewer possessions, that is the likely formula for an Under. Hamilton’s teams in the Big Dance have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. Florida State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. |
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03-22-18 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -6 | Top | 75-60 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (820) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (819). Gonzaga (32-4) has won sixteen games in a row after they outlasted Ohio State on Sunday with their 90-84 win as a 4-point favorite. The Bulldogs won that game despite their experienced veterans not playing particularly well in that game. Sophomore Rui Hachimura and freshman Zach Norvell combined to score 53 points in that game despite not being in the rotation for Mark Few for this team last year that made their run to the National Championship Game. Look for the Gonzaga veterans to play better tonight. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning at least ten straight games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. This is an outstanding team on both ends of the court as they rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have enjoyed good starts in each of their last three games as they entered halftime with leads of 11, 9 and 9 points in each of their last three games. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after owning halftime leads of at least 5 points in each of their last three games. Gonzaga has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — including covering the point spread in three straight games when favored on a neutral court by 6 points or less. |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State +5.5 v. Kentucky | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
At 9:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (813) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (814). Kentucky (26-10) has won five straight games — as well as nine of their last ten games — with their 95-75 blowout win over Buffalo on Saturday. After facing Davidson in the first-round of the Big Dance, these Wildcats see a significant jump in quality of competition from a Kansas State team which is one of four teams representing the Big 12 that are still alive in this tournament. The pressure of expectations on this very young team will likely help to keep this a close contest. Kentucky has seven freshman and two sophomores in their rotation. That’s it. They covered the point spread as favorites against Davidson and Buffalo — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. Kentucky has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. These Wildcats have shot at least 50% of their shots in four straight games but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after shooting at least 47% from the field in three straight games while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. Remember, this Kentucky team is still missing one of their best freshman in Jarred Valentine who remains questionable with an ankle injury. They remain suspect in transition defense — and they turn the ball over in 18.5% of their possessions. They face a Kansas State team that led the Big 12 in forcing turnovers while ranking 24th in the nation in forcing turnovers in 21.5% of their opponent’s possession. Those Wildcats have forced turnovers in 23% of their opponent’s possessions in this tournament. |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan UNDER 137 | 72-99 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (817) and the Michigan Wolverines (818). Texas A&M (22-12) has won five of their last six games with their 86-65 upset win over North Carolina on Sunday as a 7-point favorite. The Aggies were outstanding on defense in that game as they held the Tar Heels to just a 33.3% shooting percentage while limiting their scoring rate to just a 0.84 Points-Per-Possession mark which was North Carolina’s third least efficient offensive performance of the season. Texas A&M has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Aggies have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. Texas A&M has been dominant on the boards so far in this tournament having out-rebounded their first two opponents by +14 and +18 boards. They have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after out-rebounding their last two opponents by at least 10 Rebounds-Per-Game. Now the West Regional moves to the Staples Center in Los Angeles — and the Aggies have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as an underdog or pick ‘em. |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (818) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (817). Michigan (30-7) has won eleven straight games with their 64-63 buzzer-beating win over Houston last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite. The Wolverines on the game despite making only 35.6% of their shots in that game which was their worst offensive performance of the season. Michigan also made only 8 of their 30 shots from behind the arc (26.7%) which was far below the 37.3% mark they enjoyed from 3-point range in Big Ten play. Given the Wolverines credit for doing what was necessary to win their two games played in Wichita despite not playing at their best. Don’t be surprised if this team plays much better tonight — they face an opponent in these Aggies that match up very well against them. As it is, Michigan has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Wolverines have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. This is a good pairing for this Michigan team because Texas A&M does a great job in taking away second chances for their opponents on offense with their outstanding frontline. But the Wolverines sacrifice offensive rebounding with getting back on defense. However, Michigan does commit themselves to protecting their defensive glass: they are 3rd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 8.0 PPG in Second-Chance Opportunities — and that mark has dropped to just 7.0 PPG on Second-Chance-Opportunities in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral court. |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1.5 v. Nevada | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (815) plus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (816). Nevada (29-7) found themselves trailing by 22 points with just 10:57 left in the second half on Sunday against a Cincinnati team with a very stingy defense. Yet the Wolf Pack starting making their shots and rallied to stun the Bearcats (and me) by a 75-73 score. That upset victory came on the heels of Nevada also rallying from a 14-point deficit against Texas to win their opening round game in the Big Dance. This Wolf Pack team is loaded with offensive talent although they have not been quite as dynamic since losing their point guard Lindsey Drew to a season-end Achilles’ injury last month. Nevada finds themselves in the Sweet 16 despite enjoying a lead in just 4 minutes and 16 seconds in their first two games in this tournament. Living on the edge is simply not sustainable. To compound matters for this Wolf Pack team, their depth is very thin as they are down to only six players in their rotation with even two of those players hampered with nagging injuries. Foul trouble or another injury setback would be calamitous for this team. As it is, they are just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 3 points or less. And while they committed only 2 turnovers in their win over Cincinnati, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not committing more than 8 turnovers in their last game. Nevada has the lowest turnover rate in the nation but most of that data involves Drew running their offense. They are now facing a Ramblers team that forces turnovers in 20% of their opponent’s possessions. Additionally, while Nevada has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. And while the Wolf Pack have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada UNDER 143.5 | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (815) and the Nevada Wolf Pack (816). Loyola-Chicago (30-5) has won twelve games in a row with their 63-62 upset win over Tennessee on Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Ramblers made 50% of their shots in what was their best offensive performance in their last six games. But this game shapes up to be a defensive battle. Loyola has held their last seven opponents to 62 or fewer points. The Ramblers have seen all those seven games finish Under the Total — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. Additionally, Loyola has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Ramblers have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, Loyola has played all 6 of these games Under the Total. 10* CBB play with the Under. Best of luck for us -- Frank. TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank. |
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03-21-18 | Utah v. St. Mary's UNDER 140.5 | 67-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (767) and the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768). Utah (21-11) reached the NIT Quarterfinals on Monday with their 95-71 blowout won over LSU as a 5-point favorite. But the Utes have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Utah has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now the Utes go on the road where they are scoring only 68.5 PPG on 44.0% shooting. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Under is 3-1-1 for Utah. |
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03-21-18 | Utah v. St. Mary's -6.5 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Saint Mary’s Gaels (768) minus the points versus the Utah Utes (767). Saint Mary’s (30-5) has won six of their last seven games after defeating Washington on Monday as an 11-point favorite to advance to the Quarterfinals of the NIT. The Gaels are tough to beat when they get their offense going as they have in this tournament. They made 56.4% of their shots in their win over the Huskies on the heels of making 59.3% of their shots in their 89-45 blowout win over Southeastern Louisiana in the opening round of the NIT last Tuesday. Saint Mary’s have then covered the point spread in a decisive 49 of their last 67 home games after scoring at least 85 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 85 points their last two games. The Gaels have the luxury of staying at home for this contest which will be their last game on their home court this season before the Semifinals are played in Madison Square Garden. This is the third straight game that Saint Mary’s was the home favorite in this tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after playing their last two games at home as the favorite. The Gaels are 18-1 on their home court this season with an average winning margin of +17.8 PPG. Saint Mary’s makes 51.1% of their shots at home while limiting their opponents to just 60.9 PPG on low 41.7% shooting. Additionally, the Gaels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 opportunities to play a team from the Pac-12. |
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03-21-18 | Western Kentucky v. Oklahoma State -6 | 92-84 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (766) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (765). Oklahoma State (21-14) has won five of their last six games with their 71-65 win over Stanford on Monday as an 8-point favorite in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. The Cowboys did not cover the point spread in that game against the Cardinal but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while Stanford pulled down 55 rebounds in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 51 rebounds in their last game. Furthermore, that win over the Cardinal finished below the 154 point total — and Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a game that finished Under the Total. The Cowboys get to host this game in Stillwater where they are 15-5 this season with an average winning margin of +9.5 PPG. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. |
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03-21-18 | Jacksonville State v. North Texas +1 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (778) plus (or minus) the points versus the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (777). North Texas (17-17) is playing its best basketball of the season in March as they followed up a 13-point win at South Dakota in the opening round of the College Basketball Invitational with their 96-67 blowout win over Mercer as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Sophomore Roosevelt Smart has continued his breakout season by averaging 32.5 PPG in this tournament but he is being joined by junior guard Jordan Duffey who is finding his own rhythm with this team after scoring 31 points while nailing 6 shots from behind the arc in that win over the Tigers. First-year head coach Grant McCasland deserves a tremendous amount of credit for continuing to lead his team to improvement this season. He inherited a Mean Green team that was 8-22 overall while winning only two of their eighteen conference games. But this North Texas team was 8-10 in Conference USA this season including the suffering of three tough losses in a 6-point loss at Middle Tennessee along with an overtime loss at home to Western Kentucky and a 2-point loss to Marshall. McCarsland pulled off a similar feat last season when he led Arkansas State to a 20-12 mark after they were just 11-20 in the previous season. This Mean Green team is very motivated to continue to build momentum for next season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. UNT has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game as an underdog. The Mean Green opened as a small favorite in this game — but the line movement has them a small dog now in many spots. Regardless, North Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home in expected home games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Additionally, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outside Conference USA. |
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03-20-18 | Mississippi State v. Louisville -5.5 | 79-56 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 56 m | Show | |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (668) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667). Louisville (22-13) reached the Quarterfinals of the NIT with their 84-68 win over Middle Tennessee on Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Cardinals are then 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games after a win on their home court. David Padgett’s team gets to host this game which will be their last game on their home court all season with the Semifinals being played in Madison Square Garden. The Cardinals are 16-5 on their home court this season with an average winning margin +12.0 PPG. They hold their visitors to just a 40.2% field goal percentage on their home court. Louisville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 16 home games against teams outside the ACC, the Cardinals have covered the point spread 12 times. |
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03-20-18 | Mississippi State v. Louisville OVER 144 | Top | 79-56 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 44 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (667) and the Louisville Cardinals (668). Mississippi State (24-11) has won two straight games — as well as three of their last four games — with their 78-77 upset win at Baylor on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Mississippi State has also played a decisive 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. |
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03-20-18 | Penn State v. Marquette -2.5 | 85-80 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (660) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (665). Marquette (21-13) has won two straight games — as well as five of their last six games — after their 101-92 win over Creighton in the second round of the NIT as a 5-point favorite. The Golden Eagles have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 85 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 175 combined points in their last game. And while that was Marquette’s first point spread cover in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They get to host this Quarterfinals matchup where they are 13-6 with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. |
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03-19-18 | Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 143.5 | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
At 11:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (621) and the St. Mary’s Gaels (622). St. Mary’s (29-5) reached the second round of the NIT last Tuesday with their 89-45 win over Southeastern Louisiana as a 14.5-point favorite. The Gaels torched the Lions by making 59.3% of their shots which was the best offensive effort in their last eight games. This game shapes up to be more of a defensive struggle. St. Mary’s has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 30 points. Additionally, the Gaels have paled 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread. Furthermore, this team has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. St. Mary’s gets to host this second round game where they are holding their opponents to just 59.8 PPG on 40.9% shooting. The Gaels have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total on their home court. And in their last 5 games against non-conference opponents, St. Mary’s has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-19-18 | LSU v. Utah -5 | Top | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (620) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (619). Utah (20-11) has won 2 of their last three games after their 69-59 win over Cal-Davis in the first round of the NIT last Wednesday as a 12-point favorite. The Utes are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after an ATS loss. Utah gets to host this Second Round game where they are 14-3 with an average winning margin of +12.5 PPG this season. This Utah team plays very good defense — they are holding their visitors to just a 47.1% shooting percentage. They host a Tigers team that was last in the SEC in offensive rebounding with a 25.1% rate that was last in the conference. That is a good thing since the Utes were 10th in the Pac-12 in defensive rebounding. LSU was 12th in the SEC on free throw rate while only making 33.4% of their missed shots (8th in the SEC). What the Tigers do best on offense is make shots inside the arc as they were 3rd in the SEC by making 52.3% of their 2-point shots. But Utah ranked 2nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 47.1% shooting percentage inside the arc. The Utes are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games — and they are 41-14-2 ATS in their last 57 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. |
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03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (722) minus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (721). Marshall (25-10) upset Western Kentucky last week to win the Conference USA Tournament — and they pulled that feat off again on Friday when they upset Wichita State despite being a 13.5-point underdog with their 81-75 victory. Dan D’Antoni and his up-tempo system that seeks to maximize offensive efficiency — like what his brother Mike does as the head coach of the Houston Rockets — has received much adulation over the last two days. But the Thundering Herd look primed for a big letdown now. Somehow, this amazing “system” has never helped his brother reach even the NBA Finals with any of the various teams he has coached. And somehow, the Thundering Herd had lost ten times this year before finding magic in these last two games. But Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning at least four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after winning at least five straight contests. Additionally, that victory over the Hilltoppers was another close call by just one point — and the Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last two contests by 6 points or less. Frankly, this is now a bad matchup for Marshall as they are playing another team that excels in the efficiency formula for success. The Thundering Herd shoot 45.4% of their shots from behind the arc despite making only 35.7% of those shots. They thrive inside the arc where they make 56.0% of their 2-point shots which is 19th best in the nation. But the Mountaineers hold their opponents to just a 45.7% of their shots inside the arc (29th in the nation). Furthermore, Marshall sacrifices rebounding for the fast pace they want on both ends of the court. The Mountaineers are vulnerable to teams that pound the offensive glass (not Marshall) — but they pull down 36.7% of their missed shots which is 4th best in the nation. The Thundering Herd are 308th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.0% of their misses — and they have been out-rebounded by 15 and 10 boards in their last two games. Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after being out-rebounded by double-digits in two straight games. |
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03-18-18 | Florida State v. Xavier -5.5 | 75-70 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
At 8:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Xavier Musketeers (720) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (719). Xavier shot 54.7% from the field on Friday in an offensive display that resulted in their easy 102-83 win over Texas Southern. Look for the Musketeers to build off their momentum in this game as they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and that tightens to them covering the point spread in a crisp 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they scored at least 100 points. Chris Mack’s team is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams outside the Big East. And in their last 32 games in the NCAA Tournament, Xavier is an impressive 24-6-2 ATS. |
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03-18-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -9.5 | 43-50 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
At 7:45 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (712) minus the points versus the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (711). Maryland-Baltimore County (25-10) made history in being the first team to knock off the number one ranked team in the country in Virginia by a 74-54 score. How did they do it? It starts with the Cavaliers being sluggish on offense in their first game since their most dynamic offensive player in De’Andre Hunter suffering his season-ending injury. Virginia only scored 21 points in the first-half of that game — but their defense held serve with the Retrievers also only scoring 21 points. But we knew this day would happen eventually when a 16 seed would defeat a 1 seed — especially with the increased use of 3-point heavy offenses. The ole credo of “live by the 3, die by the 3” is the ultimate evener of playing fields. UMBC starting making 3-pointers while the pressure felt by the Cavaliers contributed to their not being able to hit the side of a barn. The result was the Retrievers’ 74-54 blowout victory. UMBC finished the game making 12 of their 24 shots from behind the arc while Virginia made only 4 of their 22 shots from downtown. It is nearly impossible for any team to overcome those results. What is incredible is that the Retrievers scored 53 points in the second-half — and the Cavaliers held fourteen opponents this season to that number or less for the entire game. What UMBC accomplished is the epitome of outlier performance. It will be very hard for them to come close to replicating that feat. Those players probably did not get a wink of sleep Friday night. They may come out strong tonight — but a physical and emotional crash is highly likely to eventually happen. |
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03-18-18 | Nevada v. Cincinnati -8 | 75-73 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 32 m | Show | |
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (718) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (717). Nevada (28-7) has not been the same basketball team since losing Lindsey Drew to a season-ending Achilles’ injury. The Wolf Pack lost twice to San Diego State after that injury including in a brutal blowout loss in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Semifinals last week. But Nevada showed a tremendous amount of grit by surviving overtime on Friday by outlasting Texas by an 87-83 score. Unfortunately for this Wolf Pack team, they will likely have not much left in the gas tank to face this very difficult Bearcats team this afternoon. Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing their second game in three days. The Wolf Pack have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 6 points or less. And Nevada is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, this Wolf Pack team has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog. |
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03-18-18 | Texas A&M v. North Carolina UNDER 152 | 86-65 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
At 5:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (709) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (710). North Carolina (26-10) has won four of their last five games with their 84-66 win over Lipscomb on Friday. The Tar Heels have then played 24 of their last 36 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And while that game on Friday finished Over the 166.5 point total, North Carolina has then played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing a game with no more than one day of rest. The Tar Heels are playing better basketball on the defensive end of the court as their last five opponents have shot just 37.2% from the field. Additionally, North Carolina out-rebounded the Bison by +18 boards in that win — and they have then played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after out-rebounding their last opponent by at least 15 rebounds. Moving forward, the Tar Heels have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, North Carolina has played 4 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-18-18 | Texas A&M v. North Carolina -6 | 86-65 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
At 5:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (710) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (709). Texas A&M (21-12) has won four of their last five games with their 73-69 win over Providence on Friday. The Aggies shot 50% from the field in that game which was their best offensive effort in their last four contests. But this Texas A&M team has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread win. This Aggies team has a talented front court — but the injury to starting point guard Duane Wilson and his backup getting kicked off the team which has left the team thin in talent and depth at the guard position. The result is a team that turns the ball over too much while not making enough 3-point shots. The Aggies turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions (234th in the nation) and they make only 32.9% of their 3-point shots (280th in the nation). Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games. |
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03-18-18 | Syracuse v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 55-53 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
At 2:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (716) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (715). Syracuse (22-13) pulled off their second straight upset victory in this NCAA Tournament with their 57-52 win over TCU on Friday as a 4.5-point underdog. The bubble is about to burst for the Orange this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after winning two straight games as an underdog — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three of the last four of those situations. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. And in their last 12 games after winning two straight games, the Orange have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games |
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03-18-18 | Butler v. Purdue -3.5 | 73-76 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 53 m | Show | |
At 12:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (714) minus the points versus the Butler Bulldogs (713). Purdue (29-6) had a bittersweet experience on Friday: they advanced to the Round of 32 with their easy 74-48 win over Cal-State Fullerton but they lost their 7’2 big man Isaac Haas for likely the rest of the season after he broke his elbow in that game. Haas did practice yesterday and wants to give it a go but head coach Matt Painter made it pretty clear that he will not be able to play. While the loss of Haas is a very unfortunate blow, pundits who think that spells the death knell of this team do not understand how the Boilermakers operate. For starters, Painter has a very capable backup in the 7’3 Matt Haarms who averaged 15 Minutes Per Game serving in the exact same role as Haas. And while the senior was more polished playing the role of the one man down low surrounded by four sharpshooters on the perimeter, Haas averaged only 23 Minutes Per Game. What really hurts this Boilermakers team is the blow to the depth of this team. Painter will have to resort to more small-ball lineups — but that will not be an issue when facing this Bulldogs team whose tallest two starters are just 6’8 and 6’7. Some bettors may look to Virginia and their historic upset they suffered on Friday after the season-ending injury to De’Andre Hunter. Frankly, it is more common for bettors to over-compensate for injuries in the short-term as teams tend to rally around each other after the loss of an important player. Bettors also tend to under appreciate the value of the replacement players. I expect this outstanding Purdue still led by three very experienced seniors to play quite well today. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They are led by a dynamic sophomore in Carsen Edwards who is their best player. This is a team that is 2nd in the nation by making 42.0% of their shots behind the arc — and they will be facing a Butler squad that ranks a low 279th in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.0% of their 3-pointers. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten. Purdue has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. And in their last 8 games in the NCAA Tournament, this team has covered the point spread in 6 of these games. |
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03-17-18 | Houston +4.5 v. Michigan | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (529) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (530). Houston (27-7) has won six of their last seven games after they outlasted San Diego State on Thursday by a 67-65 score as a 4-point favorite. The Cougars have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. This Houston team are very aggressive style of defense that has helped them produce an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency that is 16th in the nation. The Cougars force a healthy amount of turnovers that results in their opponents coughing up the basketball in 19.3% of their possessions (114th in the nation). One of the biggest vulnerabilities for this Houston team is that this aggressiveness and pressure is that it results in too many personal fouls — Houston is 324th in the nation with a defensive Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt ratio of 41.8%. That might make the Wolverines the ideal opponent for the Cougars. Michigan ranks only 65.6% of their free throwers which ranks 332nd in the nation. More on the Wolverines and their free throw woes in a moment. Needless to say, the John Beilein offense slows down if their complicated set of screens are compromised by mediocre free throw shooters showing up at the charity stripe. Turnovers on offense can be an issue for this Houston team that was 4th in the American Athletic Conference with a 17.2% turnover rate. But the Cougars committed only 7 turnovers against the Aztecs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than 8 turnovers in their last game. Houston was led in that game by their superstar point guard Robbie Gray who took over that game with San Diego State with his 39 points. Gray’s presence on the court helps the Cougars cover the point spread in 5 of their last games as the underdog. They are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 7 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of these games. |
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03-17-18 | Ohio State +5 v. Gonzaga | 84-90 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (535) plus the points versus the Gonzaga Bulldogs (536). Ohio State (25-8) survived an upset scare on Thursday by outlasting a dangerous South Dakota State team by an 81-73 score |
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03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee -5 | 63-62 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Volunteers (532) minus the points versus the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531). Loyola-Chicago (29-5) pulled off a nice upset on Thursday with their 64-62 win over Miami as a 1.5-point underdog. The Ramblers pulled off that win by making four more shots from behind the arc (8) than the Hurricanes which made for them allowing the Hurricanes to make 51% of their shots as compared to their own 47.3% shooting percentage. That is not a good sign now against a loaded Tennessee team against which they simply do not match up well against. The teams that give the Volunteers trouble are the ones that pound the offensive glass. The Volunteers rank 288th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 31.3% of their misses. But Loyola-Chicago commits to playing defense in transition rather than going for second-chance shots as they rank 6th from dead last in the nation with a 22.2% offensive rebounding rate. These limited second chance opportunities combine with the fact that these Ramblers can be loose with the basketball — they rank 194th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.7% of their possessions. This low Shot Volume dynamic becomes very troublesome against an elite defensive unit like what they will be facing with the Volunteers. Loyola-Chicago has been fortunate to not turn the ball over more than 10 times in their last four contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not turning the ball over more than 11 times in at least three straight games. This is just their second game since March 4th when they won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing their second game in eight days. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court with the Total in the 130 to 134.5 point range, the Ramblers have failed to cover the point spread 4 times. |
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03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 131 | Top | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (531) and the Tennessee Volunteers (532). Tennessee (28-8) played perhaps their best defensive game of the season on Thursday in their 73-47 win over Wright State. The Volunteers held the Raiders to just a 31.7% shooting percentage which was their best defensive performance of the season. Expect another outstanding defensive effort from Rick Barnes’ team as they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 50 or less points in their last game. Tennessee has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Vols team boasts the nation’s 5th best statistical defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. They should slow down this Ramblers’ juggernaut. Tennessee can be exploited on the offensive glass — they allow their opponents to rebound 31.3% of their missed shots which is 288th in the nation. But this Loyola-Chicago team sacrifices offensive rebounding to get back on defense — they only rebound 22.2% of their missed shots which is 332nd lowest in the nation. Of course, the Ramblers’ commitment to getting back on defense will frustrate the Volunteers who love to get their offense going on the fast break. Tennessee struggles in their half-court offense — they make only 47.2% of their shots inside the arc (282nd in the nation). Tennessee has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range, the Volunteers have played 9 of these games Under the Total. |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (538) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (537). Buffalo (27-8) pulled off their most impressive win of the season on Thursday when they shellshocked a listless Arizona team by an 89-68 score despite being a 9-point underdog. The Bulls made 54.8% of their shots in that game including nailing half of their 30 shots from behind the arc. When teams make their 3-pointers — and they shoot a lot of them like Maryland-Baltimore County last night — then those teams are hard to beat. But the fact is that this Buffalo team had not come close to accomplishing anything like that before this game. Their most impressive victory to date before dispatching of the Wildcats were a pair of wins against Toledo. And don’t blame this on major conference opponents avoiding them on the schedule. The Bulls played five teams in this year’s Big Dance with the following results: a 6-point loss to Cincinnati, a 7-point loss to Syracuse, a 9-point loss to St. Bonaventure, a 14-point loss to South Dakota State, a 16-point loss to Texas A&M. It makes me comfortable taking Kentucky laying the 6 points that was the lowest losing margin of these NCAA Tourney teams. Remember, this Bulls team is small — they do not have a rotation player taller than 6’8. This Buffalo team is also a group that suffered losses to Miami (OH), Northern Illinois and Kent State that rank 192nd or worse via the kenpom metrics. I like this Buffalo team (I avoided some angles that pointed to taking Arizona on Thursday) — but I think their blowout win says more about the mental and emotional state of that Wildcats program that it does about a sleeping giant in this mid-major. |
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03-17-18 | Rhode Island v. Duke -9.5 | 62-87 | Win | 102 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
At 2:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (524) minus the points versus the Rhode Island Rams (523). Rhode Island (26-7) reached the Round of 32 with their 83-78 win in overtime over Oklahoma as a 1.5-point favorite on Thursday. But the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and having to bounce-back on short rest after a grueling overtime game will be difficult for this team. Rhode Island made only 39% of their shots against a mediocre Sooners defense after making just 38.5% of their shots in their previous game which was their upset loss to Davidson in the Atlantic-10 Tournament Championship Game. This Rams’ team struggles in their half-court offensive sets. Their effective field goal percentage of 51.3% ranks 158th in the nation. That is not a good sign when facing this Blue Devils zone defense that resurrected their poor play on defense midseason. Rhode Island thrives by generating offense in transition with their dynamic group of athletic players. However, they rarely encounter an opponent that can match them in pure athleticism and talent — and that certainly will be the case this afternoon when facing all these future NBA players in the Duke rotation. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They also allowed Oklahoma to pull down 54 rebounds in that victory despite the Sooners ranking just 192nd in the nation in offensive rebounding and 237th in the nation in defensive rebounding. Rhode Island has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing their last opponent to rebound at least 57 boards in their last game. The Rams allow their opponents to pull down 27.8% of their misses which is a middling 136th in the nation — and that is a scary proposition when facing this Blue Devils team that leads the nation by rebounding 39.2% of their missed shots. |
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03-17-18 | Alabama v. Villanova -11 | 58-81 | Win | 100 | 0 h 10 m | Show | |
At 12:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Villanova Wildcats (526) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (525). I appreciate that Alabama (20-15) has the composition of the team that could give the Wildcats fits. The Crimson Tide play tough physical defense while leading the SEC in 3-point defense. They also boast a dynamic point guard in Collin Sexton — and Villanova has struggled against that brand of player. But I see an Alabama team that is ripe for a huge letdown after their triumphant 86-83 win over Virginia Tech on Thursday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Crimson Tide made a whopping 60% of their shots in that game in what was their best shooting performance going all the way back to their third game of the season against lowly Alabama A&M back on November 17th. That was simply an outlier performance — especially when considering that they made 8 of their 18 shots from behind the arc (44.4%). This is a team that finished 12th in the SEC in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They ranked 285th in the nation with a 32.8% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they make only 44.1% of their shots when away from home. I think the Regression Gods are coming. And when the shots stop falling, Avery Johnson’s team turns the ball over too much — they rank 288th in the nation by turning the ball over in 20.3% of their possessions. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 80 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after making at least 60% of their shots in their last game. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. But perhaps the bigger concern about this Crimson Tide team is their recent play on defense. The Hokies made 55.6% of their shots against them on Thursday in that losing effort — and that includes them nailing 9 of their 18 shots from behind the arc (50%). That came on the heels of them Alabama allowing Kentucky to make 64.3% of their shots in their worst defensive effort of the season last Saturday in the SEC Semifinals in what turned out to be an 86-63 loss. Those Wildcats made 12 of their 18 shots from downtown (75%) which means the Tide have seen their last two opponents made 21 of their 36 shots from 3-point land (58.3%). Now here comes another Wildcats team in Villanova that makes 40.1% of their 3-pointers. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. And in their last 4 games against teams from the Big East, the Tide have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. |
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03-16-18 | Syracuse v. TCU -4.5 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (876) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (875). TCU (21-11) enters the Big Dance on a two-game losing streak after they were upset by Kansas State as a 3-point favorite last Thursday in the Big 12 Tournament. Head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to bounce-back as the Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games on the road after an upset loss. Furthermore, TCU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Horned Frogs are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread setback. Much will be made about TCU’s ability to handle the Syracuse 2-3 matchup zone — but Dixon has plenty of experience matching wits with Jim Boeheim given his long tenure at Pitt. Dixon’s teams won fifteen of their twenty-one games against Syracuse over his tenure. Dixon’s teams always are well-schooled in making extra passes that serve to expose the holes that zone defenses inevitably leave. This Horned Frogs team is 7th in the nation in assisted field goal rate. It is telling that TCU won both their games this season against a Baylor team that also deploys a similar zone defense scheme. The Syracuse zone also leaves a very soft spot down low for offenses to crash the glass. I noted in Wednesday’s Report on the Orange to defeat Arizona State that this year’s Syracuse team was actually doing a better job in protecting their defensive glass. Yet this Orange team is still allowing their opponents to pull down 29.1% of their missed shots which is 203rd in the nation. These Horned Frogs can exploit that weakness as they rank 20th in the nation by rebounding 34.5% of their missed shots. TCU should overwhelm the Syracuse defense — they rank 8th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games played on a neutral court. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court with the Total set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. |
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03-16-18 | College of Charleston v. Auburn -9 | 58-62 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 32 m | Show | |
At 7:25 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (894) minus the points versus the College of Charleston Cougars (893). Charleston (26-7) is a trendy Cinderella pick in some circles having won fourteen of their last fifteen games after winning the automatic bid from the Colonial Athletic Association with their 83-76 win over Northeastern back on March 6th. Funny, the conventional wisdom about the Cougars entering the CAA Tournament was that they were underachieving relative to the high expectations the team had by returning all five of their starters. During the CAA Tournament, they had a significant advantage with the event being hosted just down the street from them in Charleston. More importantly, this is a terrible matchup for them. Charleston wants to slow the tempo of the game down — but they get into trouble against teams that push the pace to take advantage of their athleticism. Unfortunately for the Cougars, that is a very apt description of this Auburn team. Furthermore, the Kryptonite for the Tigers have been big teams that can take advantage of their lack of size — but Charleston is also a small team. Auburn is simply more athletic and should neutralize the things the Cougars usually like to take advantage of against other opponents. As it is, Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games as the favorite — and they are an ugly 19-50-1 ATS in their last 70 games after a point spread win. The Cougars have a trio of good scorers — but they see a big drop-off after that with a weak bench. It is telling that Charleston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against SEC opponents. |
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03-16-18 | Marshall v. Wichita State OVER 164.5 | 81-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
At 1:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Marshall Thundering Herd (889) and the Wichita State Shockers (890). Marshall (24-10) has won four straight games — as well as ten of their last twelve games after winning the Conference USA Tournament with their 67-66 upset win over Western Kentucky as a 6-point underdog last Saturday. The Thundering Herd has then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Head coach Dan D’Antoni deploys the same run-and-gun up-tempo 3-point shooting offense that his brother is overseeing with the Houston Rockets. 45.6% of the Thundering Herd’s shots are from behind the arc with 36% of their points coming from those shots. This fast pace has also resulted in Marshall allowing 79 PPG — and most of those opponents do not compare to the offensive talent that they will be facing with this Shockers team. Some bettors may be tempted by the Under given this is being played at 10:30 AM local time in San Diego — but both these teams are quite content in taking high-percentage shots inside the arc. The Thundering Herd make 56.1% of their 2-point shots which is 15th best in the nation. The fast pace should help push this game Over the big number — Marshall has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total when the Total is in the 160 to 169.5 point range. Furthermore, the Thundering Herd have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total against non-conference opponents. |
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03-16-18 | Providence +2.5 v. Texas A&M | 69-73 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
At 12:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Providence Friars (867) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (868). Texas A&M (20-12) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the SEC Tournament with their 71-70 upset loss to Alabama as a 3-point favorite. It might be difficult for this Aggies team to bounce-back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss to an SEC rival. This team has a strong frontcourt but they lack depth at guard given a season-ending injury to starting point guard Duane Wilson along with backup point guard J.J. Caldwell being kicked off the team. The point guard position was a concern for this team entering the season with Wilson as a transfer from Marquette happily addressed for this team. Now this Texas A&M team has only thee guards in their rotation. This lack of talent of guard is one of the biggest reasons why they shot only 30.6% of their shots from behind the arc in SEC play. Furthermore, the Aggies turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions which is 231st in the nation — and they will be facing a Friars team that does a solid job of forcing turnovers at an 18.9% clip (137th in the nation). These holes in guard play hurt this team’s ability to pull out close games. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, this team struggles at the free throw line which makes them a precarious favorite. They rank 315th in the nation by making only 66.7% of their free throws. That is not a good characteristic for a program that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in NCAA Tournament play. |
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03-15-18 | Montana +11 v. Michigan | Top | 47-61 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:50 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Montana Grizzlies (733) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (734). Michigan (28-7) has won nine games in a row — culminating with upset wins over Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive days to win the Big Ten Tournament back on March 4th. John Beilein is one of the best coaches in College Basketball — but this Wolverines team is not nearly as reliable when being asked to cover double-digit point spreads against feisty rivals. For starters, an emotional letdown should be expected for this team after playing underdog in those final two games to win the Big Ten Tournament. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after registering two straight upset losses. The long layoff is an issue for this team that led the Big Ten by averaging 24.8 shots from behind the arc per game while generating 43% of their offense from 3-point land. Playing on an unfamiliar neutral court for the first time in eleven days may mess with the accuracy of their long jump shots. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when playing with at least seven days between games. Now this team has the burden of the pressure of expectations against a potential Cinderella opponent. Remember, this team almost was upset by Iowa in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament where the Hawkeyes were able to rally back to force overtime. The Achilles’ heel for the Wolverines is their free throw shooting — they rank 329th in the nation by making only 65.7% of their shots from the charity stripe. Compounding this problem is that two of their key ball handlers in point guard Xavier Simpson and wing Charles Matthews make only 51.9% and 56.1% of their free throws. They made only 18 of their 32 (56.2%) of their free throws in that Iowa game — and this provides a blue print for Montana to keep their game close with the Wolverines. The other problem for Michigan against the Hawkeyes was that their two starting big men in Moritz Wagner and Muhammad-Ali Abdur Rahman both fouled out in that game — and the interior depth for this team gets thin pretty quickly. The Wolverines avoided foul troubles against the Spartans and Boilermakers as they committed ten less personal fouls and five less personal fouls respectively in those games. But Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after committing at least five less personal fouls than their opponents in two straight games. Montana predicates their game on drawing fouls and winning the free throw battle — so this is a real area of vulnerability for the Wolverines. Furthermore, Michigan committed only 5 turnovers in their 75-66 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than 5 turnovers. Beilein-coached teams always do a great job in protecting the basketball — but they cannot expect to replicate their microscopic 7.8% turnover rate which was about half of their still outstanding rate for the season. |
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