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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* O/U SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the under Falcons/Seahawks (8:30 EST). The 5-4 Atlanta Falcons are in Seattle to take on the 6-3 Seahawks in an important NFC battle on Monday night and in my opinion, all signs point to a lower-scoring “chess match.” Both teams come in off victories, but each has suffered recent signficant injuries. The Hawks lost Kam Chancellor, while the Falcons lost RB Devonta Freeman in their 27-7 home win over the Cowboys last weekend. Atlanta’s defense looked sharp last week, albeit against a depleted Dallas offense. sacking Dak Prescott eight times. DE Adrian Clayborn had six sacks, while the Cowboys were limited to just 126 passig yards and 107 on the ground overall. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan’s pedestrian season continues, coming into this one with a 13/8 TD/INT ratio and a 93.9 QB rating. Seahawks’ QB Russell Wilson was 22 of 32 for 238 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s in his team’s Thursday night win over Arizona. Seattle’s defense has taken a hit because of injury, but note that the team has still seen the total go under the number in all six games it’s played this year against the conference and four of six already this season when playing the role of favorite. And note that Atlanta has seen the total dip below the posted number in in all four games that it’s played in this year against clubs with winning records. It’s going to be cold, blustery and likely raining hard in the Great Pacific Northwest on Monday night. All signs point to field position being paramount in the final outcome. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 49 | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 79 h 19 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Weekend Wipeout Winner under Eagles/Cowboys (8:30 EST). Philadelphia won its seventh straight in its 51-23 demolition of the Broncos on November 4th. The team then had its bye last week. Dallas had its three-game win streak snapped in a 27-7 loss on the road in Atlanta last Sunday. The Eagles are so far second in the league in scoring by averaging 31.4 PPG, while ranked tenth on the defensive side by conceding 19.9. QB Carson Wentz has 2,262 yards, 23 TD’s and five INT’s thus far. Philadelphia has a dynamic run game which is led by LeGarrette Blount, who has 504 yards and two TD’s thus far. Dallas comes in ranked eighth in the league in scoring with an average of 25.9 PPG, while ranked 17th on the defensive side by conceding 22.8. QB Dak Prescott has 1,994 yards, 16 TD’s and four INT’s thus far. This is clearly a big game for Dallas, which would fall even further behind the Eagles in the divisoin race with a loss. Look for the home side to try and control the pace of this one while on offense as much as possible, so as to limit the time Wentz and company are on the field of play. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 23 when playing the role of favorite, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is set between 45.5 and 49 points. The Cowboys’ offense has struggled without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup and things aren’t going to get any easier tonight. I look for these divisional foes to battle tough and for this total to ultimately fall below the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Bills v. Chargers -4 | 24-54 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers (4:05 EST). The Bills were destroyed 47-10 at home to New Orleans last weekend, a beatdown so bad that the team has benched QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of backup Nate Peterman moving forward. Peterman was 7 of ten for 79 yards and a TD last week. Buffalo comes in ranked 28th in the league in total offense with just 292 YPG and 19th in scoring with 20.4 PPG, while the defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 21.8, ranked 15th. The Chargers rank 23rd in scoring with 18.6 PPG, while ranked ninth on the defensive side by conceding just 19.1 PPG. LA comes into this one with four losses of three points or fewer (after having five losses of four points or fewer last season.) The Chargers’ run game has been a weak point, but the Bills have been gouged for 492 yards on the ground over the last two weeks combined. Last week LA QB Philip Rivers was 21 of 37 for 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. I’ll point out that the Bills are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 following a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in this series in front of the home town crowd. If Melvin Gordon is going to have a break out performance, then this is the team to have it against. Rivers is going to have plenty of opportunities as well against this Bills team which is once again searching for an identity in all three phases. Lay the points with confidence as the Bolts lay down the hammer at home. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Lions v. Bears +3 | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). The 5-4 Detroit Lions are in Chicago to take on the 3-6 Bears and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Detroit comes in off a 38-14 win over Cleveland, while Chicago dropped a tough 23-16 decision at home to Green Bay. These teams split a pair of games last year, each being decided by a single field goal. Detroit QB Matt Stafford has a 17/5 TD/INT ratio this year. Last weekend RB Ameer Abdullah had 52 yards on the ground, part of 104 total for the Lions. Stafford had 249 yards, three TD’s and an INT. The Lions looked poor defensively though, conceding 413 yards, including 201 on the ground. Chicago allowed 342 total yards to the Packers last week. QB Mitchell Trubisky was 21 of 35 for 297 yards, a TD and no INT’s. Trubisky looked more comfortable last week and I expect that progression to once again get carried over here. RB Jeremy Howard had 54 yards on 15 carries. The strength of the Bears’ defense is against the pass, which is also in Chicago’s favor facing the Lions’ pass-centric offense. I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Chicago is 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a loss against a division rival. I’m expecting a nail-biter. Grab the points, play on the Bears. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Vikings | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the LA Rams (1:00 EST). The Vikes have now won five in a row, coming out of their bye and getting the better of the Redskins last week. LA also comes in on top form, with wins over the Jags, Cards, Giants and Texans. Last week the Rams posted the 33-7 victory over Houston. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley lead a dynamic offense, while the LA defense has been better than orginally advertised. Minnesota has Case Keenum under center now and he so far has 11 TD’s and five INT’s. Keenum has thrown at least one INT in four straight games and he had two in last week’s 38-30 win over Washington. I’ll point out that LA is already 3-1 ATS on the road this year and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 “dome” games, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after scoring 35 points or more in its previous contest. Ultimately I think that LA’s depth on the offensive side of the ball will win the day over the Vikes league leading defensive unit. Grab the points, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Ravens v. Packers +2 | Top | 23-0 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider GOY is on the GB Packers at 1:00 ET. The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Green Bay to take on the 5-4 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Baltimore last played on November 5th in Tennessee and lost to the Titans 23-20. Green Bay comes in with momentum with Brett Hundley under center, coming off an upset 23-16 victory at Chicago last Sunday. In the Ravens latest loss, QB Joe Flacco had 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game posted just 73 yards on 22 carries. Overall Baltimore is ranked 30th in total offense by averaging 286.6 YPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 184.7 YPG through the air and 125.9 on the ground. Green Bay ranks 23rd in total offense with an average of 313.7 YPG, while ranked 24th in total defense by conceding 353.6. Hundley though has started to find his groove and will benefit today from playing in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine non-conference games (including 0-2 ATS this year) and just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 when playing the role of favorite, while Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine off a win against a division rival and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. The Ravens were in “free fall” before their bye and I don’t think the extra time off is going to help their issues. Hundley meanwhile has gotten progressively better with each start and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon. Play on Green Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Steelers (8:25 EST). The 6-3 Tennessee Titans are in Pittsburgh to take on the 7-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. It wasn’t pretty, but the Steelers battled tough and scored the 20-17 win in Indianpolis last weekend, while the Titans also rallied to post the 24-20 win at home over the Bengals. Both teams are on fire, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this case. Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked overly impressive. Each will be looking for a bounce back performance, but the trends support the home side in this spot, as note that Tennessee is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories (including 0-2 already this year) and just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS its last 17 at home (including 2-1 ATS this year) and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records (including 2-0 ATS this season.) Tennessee has been great in stopping the run, ranked seventh, but horrible against the pass, ranked 28th. And that doesn’t bode well facing big Ben Roethlisberger, who will be out to atone for last week’s near disaster. The Pittsburgh defense though has been superb, ranked second in the NFL in overall yards given up per game (284.4) The Steelers’ defense has been remarkable of late, allowing 20 or less points in four straight games. I think the Titans have a letdown on the short week in this tough atmosphere and I look for the veteran Roethlisberger to take full advantage. Lay the points, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-13-17 | Dolphins v. Panthers OVER 38 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Dolphins/Panthers (8:30 EST). The 4-4 Miami Dolphins are in Carolina to take on the 6-3 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one have offensive shootout written all over it. Both teams are hungry for wins. Miami is coming off consecutive losses, losing 40-0 in Baltimore, before starting QB Jay Cutler returned to go 32 of 42 for 311 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s in a setback to Oakland last weekend. The defense looked decent, giving up 295 passing yards and just 84 rushing yards. Caroilna QB Cam Netwon was just 13 of 24 for 137 yards and no TD’s. He did run for 86 though and scored his first rushing TD of the year. I’ll point out that Miami has seen the total go over the number in six of its last nine games played on a grass field, while Carolina has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 13 off a divisional contest and in 12 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU victories. With nothing to lose (except another game), I like Cutler and company to open up the playbook and air this one from start to finish. Carolina is on a roll and with numerous tough upcoming road games on the horizon, this is one contest the Panthers can’t afford to “look past.” I’m banking on this total sailing above this low number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Patriots v. Broncos +8.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -135 | 103 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Broncos (8:30 EST). The 6-2 New England Patriots are in Denver to take on the desperate 3-5 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Now, I’m not suggesting to “sprinkle” a little on the money line, but I do definitely think this one will be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Pats come to town off their bye week, last beating the Chargers 21-13 at home. The Broncos lost their fourth straight in a 51-23 setback on the road at red hot Philadelphia last weekend. So far the Pats are seventh in the league in scoring with 27 PPG, while ranked 16th on the defensive side in conceding 22.4. QB Tom Brady has 2,541 yards, 16 TD’s and two INT’s this season. Brady though has been sacked 21 times. Mike Gillislee leads the rushing attack with 355 yards and four major scores. This is it for Denver, as another loss will almost assuredly have the team planning for next season. So far the Broncos rank 22nd in the leauge in scoring with 18.8 PPG, while ranked 25th defensively in conceding 24.8. QB Trevor Siemian has 1,669 yards with nine TD’s and ten INT’s. CJ Anderson has 482 yards and two TD’s. I’ll point out though that Denver is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 at home (including 2-1 ATS this season) and still 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite of 7.5 to ten points. Denver’s defense remains its strength and I think it’s going to come up big at home here. The outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to a nail-biter. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Texans v. Rams -11 | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 99 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Rams (4:05 EST). The 3-5 Houston Texans are in LA to take on the 6-2 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA comes in off three straight wins, while the Texans are reeling after two straight losses. Houston staring QB DeShaun Watson was lost to injury and backup Tom Savage was just 19 of 44 for 219 yards and one TD in the 20-14 loss to the Colts. In all the Texans were outgained 371 to 288. LA seems on a mission now that it’s left St. Louis. LA is ranked third in total offense this year with 382.1 YPG. In fact, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley lead the league’s No. 1 scoring offense with 32.9 PPG. Last week Goff had four TD’s in the win over the Giants. Gurley meanwhile has a league-high ten major scores. I’ll point out as well that Houston is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with a winning home record, while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a three game unbeaten streak. In the two games since Savage took over as QB, the Texans have managed seven and 14 points total in those two contests. I like Goff to continue his hot play and for the Rams’ defensive unit to come up big against the “gassed” Texans offense. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Vikings v. Redskins +1.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 10 Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET. The Vikings are sitting pretty in the NFC North at 6-2, as only the Lions are above .500 (5-4) in the division. They are also off a bye week plus come into this contest on a four-game winning streak. However, let's take a closer look at those four wins. First came the Bears (now 3-5) in Mitch Trubisky’s first start, then the Packers in a game in which Aaron Rodgers got KO’d early. Up next were the slumping Ravens (in the midst of losing four of five games), and then win-less Browns in London (Cleveland is 0-8 and 1-23 since the start of 2016). Let's just say, not exactly a Murderer's Row! The Redskins are still right in the mix for one of two NFC wild card spots, after their timely 17-14 win last Sunday in Seattle. QB Kirk Cousins is completing 67.9% with 13 TDs and four INTs, for a QB rating of 102.0. That comes on the heels of him completing 68.3% with a 54-23 TD-to-INT ratio, with QB ratings of 101.6 and 97.2. The ONLY organization that thinks he's not a top-flight QB in the NFL is the Redskins. Maybe they would prefer Minnesota's Case Keenum. I prefer Cousins and the Redskins in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Packers v. Bears OVER 38 | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 95 h 29 m | Show | |
My 9* SUPER TOTAL is the over Packers/Bears (1:00 EST). The 4-4 Green Bay Packers are in Chicago to take on the 3-5 Bears and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak above this extremely low total once it’s all said and done. Green Bay comes in off its second straight loss after losing QB Aaron Rodgers for the season to injury, falling 30-17 at home to Detroit, while Chicago comes in off a 20-12 setback at home to the Saints in Week 8. When these teams played last year, it was the Packers that scored the 35-14 victory. Brett Hundley is learning on the fly. Last week he had 245 yards and no TD’s for the Pack. He did rush one in though. RB Aaron Jones also had a sub-par game and he’ll have his hands full against the Bears’ tough defense. The Packers had a tough time stopping the arial assault of Matt Stafford though, which is music to Mitch Trubisky’s ears. Chicago went into its bye week with a 20-12 loss to New Orleans. Trubisky was just 14 of 32 for 164 yards with no TD’s and an INT. The Bears looked sharp defensively, holding Drew Brees to zero TD passes. I’ll point out though that Green Bay has seen the total go over the number in four of its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Chicago has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite. These are two QB’s eager for a big performance and everything points to these coaches taking the “training wheels” of this weekend. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Steelers -10 v. Colts | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 28 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST). The 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-6 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Pittsburgh posted a 20-15 road win over Detroit in its latest action, while Indianapolis definitely looks primed for a letdown here after its shcoking 20-13 victory at Houston last Sunday. The Steelers have to be feeling pretty confident here, because when these teams met last year it was Pittsburgh that won easily 28-7, with QB Ben Roethlisberger throwing three TD’s, while RB Le’Veon Bell had 120 yards. Roethlisberger had 317 yards in the victory over the Detroit. Bell had 75 yards on 25 carries. The Steelers uncharacteristically gave up 482 yards to the Lions, but they came up clutch in the most important moments, holding Detroit to 0 for 5 in the red zone. Pittsburgh enters out of its bye having won three straight. Indianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett was 20 of 30 for 307 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week, while RB Frank Gore had 51 rushing yards on 17 carries. The Colts’ defense looked sharp, holding the Texans to 288 total yards. I’m not reading too much into the one decent performance though. Houston had just lost a 41-38 game against the Seahawks on the road and clearly it looked out of gas last week. Indianapolis snapped a three game slide, but remains in last place in the AFC South. Additionally I’ll point out that the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six after posing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game, while the Colts a horrible 1-9-1 ATS in theit last 11 following a SU victory. Indianapolis owns the league’s worst defense, allowing an average of 29 PPG. And that’s music to a well rested “Big Ben” and company. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 41.5 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Hawks/Cards (8:25 EST). The 5-3 Seattle Seahawks are in Arizona to take on the 4-4 Cardinals and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. The Seahawks beat the Texans 41-38 two weeks ago, but then came out flat in last weekend’s 17-14 loss at home to Washington. Clearly the 5-3 Hawks will be looking to atone for that shoddy offensive peformance. Arizona lost starting QB Carson Palmer to injury, but Drew Stanton came in and directed his team to a 20-10 road win in San Francisco last Sunday. The Seahawks secondary was exposed by the Texans without Earl Thomas in the line-up and while it looked better last weekend, I think it will have its hands full with Stanton, who finished with 201 yards, two TD’s and an INT in the victory over the 49ers. Arizona though looked horrible defensively, allowing 294 passing yards to CJ Beathard. And that doesn’t bode well for the Cards today facing Russell Wilson, who had 297 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s last weekend. Overall though Seattle ranks fourth in total offense with 378.6 YPG. Seattle’s defense is also expected to be tested by the Cards’ rejuvenated run game, with Adrian Peterson leading the way. The veteran back was dominant last week, finishing with 159 rushing yards. I’ll point out that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in interestingly six of its last eight in Weeks 10 through 13, while Arizona has seen the total soar above the posted number in two of its last three as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I think these two desperate division rivals open up the playbook and I look for this total to indeed eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-06-17 | Lions -2 v. Packers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST). The 3-4 Detroit Lions are in Green Bay to take on the 4-3 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is a double revenge scenario for the Lions as well after the Packers took both games from them last season. That was of course with star QB Aaron Rodgers under center. But Rodgers is injured and lost for the year, meaning that Green Bay backup Brent Hundley has been forced into the spot light. Two weeks ago Hundley made his first start at home against the Saints and he looked horrible, going just 12 of 25 for 87 yards, no TD’s and a pick. RB Aaron Jones had 131 yards on 17 carries with a TD, but note that the Lions are seventh in the league against the run, allowing only 91.6 rushing yards per game. In last week’s loss to the Steelers, Lions’ QB Matt Stafford did everything but find the endzone unfortunately, finishing 27 of 45 for 423 yards. Admittedly the Lions’ run game is horrible, but Stafford catches a break this week in facing the Packers’ 16th ranked pass defense which gives up 223.1 YPG. Note as well that Detroit is 3-1 ATS in its last four Monday night games, while Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. Stafford isn’t the highest paid QB in the history of the NFL for nothing. If he can’t get the better of Hundley today, then there is something seriously wrong in Detroit. I’m banking on Stafford answering the call though and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Lions. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Raiders v. Dolphins UNDER 44 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LEGEND is on the under Raiders/Dolphins (8:30 EST). The 3-5 Oakland Raiders are in Miami to take on the 4-3 Dolphins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has low-scoring, defensive battle written all over it. Oakland has lost five of its last six, while Miami’s three game win streak was snapped in a blowout loss to the Ravens in London last weekend. Wtih Marshawn Lynch re-instated, it’s safe to say that we’re going to see a heavy dose of the bruising back from the visitors today. Lynch missed last Sunday’s 34-14 loss to Buffalo. In all the Raiders gained just 54 yards on 14 carries against the Bills. Oakland QB Derek Carr is averaging just 228.9 passing yards per game and has 12 TD’s and six INT’s this season. The Dolphins are reeling as well. Miami gets the job done on the defensive side of the ball as it’s averaging just 13.1 PPG, including being just 30th in the NFL in passing and 31st in rushing. And now Miami’s offense will have to figure out what do without lead RB Jay Ajayi, who was just traded to the Eagles on Tuesday: “We’re the worst offense in football,” Dolphins’ head coach Adam Gase lamented after last week’s loss. “It’s hard to go lower than that…. I wouldn’t say I’m tempted to do anything. I’m going to play the guys that know what to do. The fan-base might not like it, but oh well…. I’m pissed. I’m tired of this. I’m tired of the offense being awful. Guys need to get their heads right. The coaching staff needs to do a better job because obviously our players not knowing is a direct reflection on them.” I’ll point out that the under is 6-2 in the Raiders’ last eight on the road, while the Fish have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of their last five following a SU loss. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Cardinals v. 49ers | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 129 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EST). The San Francisco 49ers traded a 2018 second-round draft pick for New England Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo on Monday night. However, Garoppolo is not expected to start Sunday against the Cardinals, as C.J. Beathard will remain starter for now. Brian Hoyer started the first six games for San Fran but was benched in favor of C.J. Beathard in the team's loss to Washington on Oct. 16. Beathard has started the past two games, going 39 of 74 for 402 yards with one TD and two interceptions. However, after losing five straight games by three points or less, the 49ers have lost 40-10 and 33-10 with Beathard starting. San Francisco is now a pathetic 1-22 SU last 23 (only win was 22-21 over Rams in Week 17 of 2016), falling to 0-8 to open the 2017 season, the first time that's happened in franchise history. Drew Stanton was the fifth QB drafted in 2007 (43rd overall pick) and the only one still on an NFL roster, See if you can find Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb and John Beck these days on any NFL rosters? He came to Arizona in 2014 and will be making his 10th regular season start (6-3 first nine). Stanton has the raw arm and athleticism to put points on the board. Arizona has excelled in this spot for bettors as well, going 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 in all games where the line was set between +3 and -3. Conversely, the 49ers have really struggled in this position for bettors, going just 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games where the line in the contest is between +3 and -3 and only 10-14 ATS their last 24 after two or more consecutive SU losses. I’m banking on Stanton doing just enough to secure his team the victory here. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Redskins +7.5 v. Seahawks | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 128 h 30 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Washington Redskins (4:05 EST). The 3-4 Washington Redskins are in Seattle to take on the 5-2 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Washington will be hungry here after its 33-19 home loss to Dallas, while I think Seattle looks primed for a letdown after its thrilling, last-second 41-38 win over Houston at home last week. The Redskins so far average 22.9 PPG, while conceding 25.7. Clearly that’s not a recipie for success. Last week QB Kirk Cousins was 26 of 39 for 263 yards, a TD and an INT. Cousins has been solid so far with 1,900 yards, 13 TD’s and four INT’s this season. In fact, Cousins 103.3 QBR is third overall. The Hawks are averaging 25.0 PPG and conceding 18.9, ranked seventh. QB Russell Wilson was 26 of 41 for 452 yards, four TD’s and an INT last weekend. The run game was non-existent though, producing just 33 yards in the win over Houston. That’s not going to get the job done most weekends. I think Cousins and the desperate visiting side will have their opportunities today, just like the Texans did last week. I’ll also point out that the Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and 7-3 ATS their last ten against teams with winning records, while Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a straight up victory. Ultimately I feel that Cousins will be able to keep his team competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Bengals +5.5 v. Jaguars | 7-23 | Loss | -111 | 125 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST). The 3-4 Cincinnati Bengals look to move back to .500 with a win in Jacksonville against the 4-3 Jaguars this afternoon. It wasn’t pretty, but the Bengals bounced back and edged Indianapolis 24-23 last week. Jacksonville has so far been better than advertised this season, but I think it’s going to show some signs of rust after its bye week, previous to that smashing the Colts 27-0 the last time it was on the field of play. Cincinnati gave up 331 yards, including 115 rushing last week. The Bengals’ defense has been a strength this year and I think it’s going to be a difference maker this afternoon as well. After a very slow start to the year, the Bengals have now won three of four. QB Andy Dalton started slowly as well and has since been getting into a groove, for the season he has an 11/8 TD/INT ratio. WR AJ Green has 572 receiving yards and four TD’s. Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has been inconsistent from game-to-game this year as well and so far has 1,398 passing yards and a 9/5 TD/INT. The Jaguars have also been getting above average defensive play, holding Indianapolis to just 232 yards last week. Note that Jacksonville is particularly tough against the run, but does have issues against the pass. Which of course doesn’t bode well in facing Dalton in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 on the road, while Jacksonville is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 at home. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Colts v. Texans UNDER 49 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 125 h 15 m | Show | |
My 9* SUPER TOTAL is the under Colts/Texans (1:00 EST). The 2-6 Indianapolis Colts are in Houston to take on the 3-4 Texans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Colts have lost three straight and have little to play for at this point. The Texans have alternated wins and losses all year, most recently coming in off a tough 41-38 setback to Houston With Indianapolis starting QB Andrew Luck out for the season, duties have fallen to backup Jacoby Brissett, who averages a paltry 184.4 yards per game and who has five TD’s and four INT’s. The Colts are clearly in rebuilding mode for next year already, where they plan to finally have a 100% healthy Luck under center. I think the Texans come in “flat-footed” here after last week’s crushing setback in Seattle. The team rallied after owner Bob McNair’s insensitive comments, but then still came up short with its effort. I believe that disappointment gets carried over into Houston’s performance here today. I’ll point out as well that the Colts have seen the total go under the number in interestingly, five of their last eight games played in the month of November, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four when playing the role of favorite. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” where field position will help in ultimately determining the final outcome, rather than a run-and-gun “shoot-out.” This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is the under Bills/Jets (8:20 EST). The 5-2 Buffalo Bills are in New York to take on the 3-5 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Buffalo comes in off a convincing 34-14 win over Oakland on Sunday, while the Jets come off a difficult 25-20 loss at home to Atlanta. New York has lost three straight and is in bascially “must win” mode, while Buffalo could be caught a little complacent after all of its recent success and in facing its lowly opponent. Note that if recent history is any precedence, then we should absolutely expect a lower-scoring game tonight, because when these team’s played on September 10th this year, it was Buffalo that edged New York by a score of 21-12 at home. Bills’ QB Tyrod Taylor has been solid this year with 1.343 yards, eight TD’s and two INT’s. LeSean McCoy has 763 yards and three TD’s on the year. Taylor had 165 yards and a TD against the Raiders throwing and also rushed in another TD, while McCoy finished with 151 yards on 27 carries with a score as well. Note that Buffalo has been solid defensively this year, especially against the run, allowing only 80.1 YPG. Jets’ QB Josh McCown was 26 of 33 for 257 yards, two TD’s and no picks last weekend. McCown has been a big reason why New York has been so competitive this year, going for 12 TD’s and seven INT’s thus far. The run game was held to just 43 yards on 22 carries last week, which doesn’t bode well for the unit in facing the Bills’ elite rush defense. The under is 5-1 in the last six in this series and for good reason. Suspect QB play forces each to focus on the run first. For New York that’s been an issue this year, but McCown will be predictable today in a one dimensional offense. This is a few too many points in my opinion, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 58 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST). Both teams have been scuffling. The Broncos have lost two straight, most recently getting shutout 21-0 by the Chargers this past weekend, while the Chiefs have also fallen on recent hard times by dropping two straight, most recently a crushing 31-30 setback to Oakland on October 19th. I think KC bounces back in a big way here though as it looks to take advantage of a Denver team which is dealing with several injuries to its offensive line and at the WR position. Denver WR Emmanual Sanders missed the game against LA because of a sprained ankle and he’s listed as questionable for this one as well (if he does happen to play, clearly he’s going to be less than 100% capacity.) Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian was 25 of 35 for 207 yards and a pick in the loss. Denver’s defense remains its strength, allowing only 258.5 YPG. That unit though clearly faces a stiff test against this prolific offense and in this hostile environment. Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith was 25 of 36 for 342 yards and three TD’s. So far Smith has 15 TD’s and zero INT’s on the year. RB Kareem Hunt added 87 yards and now has 1,002 yards and six TD’s on the season. KC ranks third in YPG overall with 392.4, but it ranks 29th on the defensive end in conceding 396.3 YPG. The Chiefs’ defense catches a big break this week though in facing the one-dimensional Broncos’ offense. KC opened the year 5-0, but it’s since dropped its last two. The game against the Raiders could have gone either way though, so they could easily be sitting at 6-1. Oakland was desperate last week and it managed to take care of business at home against a divisional opponent. But with those two losses behind them, I’m expecting Smith and the Chiefs to return to form on the national stage and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover on Monday night. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST). The Steelers come in on top form and catch a Lions team that’s going to be rusty coming out of its bye week. In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot larger. Detroit has lost two straight, most recently to Carolina and New Orleans, while Pittsburgh has won two very tough games in a row against KC and Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger threw five INT’s in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville earlier in the month and since then has gone 2-0 with three TD’s and one INT. Big Ben has gotten plenty of help as well, as RB Le’Veon Bell has 313 yards combined over his last two games. The Steelers rush defense has been dominant as well, holding the Chiefs to 28 yards and the Bengals to 71: “The sky’s the limit,” Steelers’ linebacker Bud Dupree assessed after last week’s win. “Not even the sky’s the limit. We’re not going to put a ceiling on our head. We’re going to keep going up.” Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in total offense with 298.0 YPG and the run game averages just 4.6 YPC. QB Matt Stafford has 12 TD’s and six picks on the year. The numbers/trends also support Pittsburgh this weekend, as note that the Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game, while the Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven against clubs with winning records. Detroit’s leading receiver Golden Tate has a shoulder injury and is listed as day to day. If he does happen to play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. Stafford doesn’t have too many options left (Marvin Jones Jr. has 20 catches for 280 yards and three TD’s), and he’s turned the ball over six times in the last three games. Pittsburgh continues to gain confidence though, especially by RB Bell, who looks poised for another big game tonight. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 50.5 | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is on the under between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Redskins (4:25 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this number is just a little high. Both teams come in disappointed to be sitting at 3-3 at this point of the season. Washington will be looking to get things taken care of on the defensive side of the ball this week after a poor 34-24 road loss in Philadelphia on Monday night, while Dallas comes in off a 40-10 road win over the hapless 49ers. Previous to that though Dallas had lost two straight at home. Note that Washington plays with the double revenge factor here as well after dropping both games in the series last year. The game plan will be simple again this week for the Cowboys. Just hand the ball to Ezekiel Elliot and get out of the way! Last week he rushed for 147 yards and two TD’s, while catching one pass for a 72 yard major score as well. In all Dallas rushed for 265 yards, while throwing for 236. Dallas ranks in the middle of the pack defensively in allowing 23.7 PPG. Washington QB Kirk Cousins was 30 of 40 for 308 yards, three TD’s and one pick last weekend. The Skins’ ground game came to a halt though, posting just 75 yards on 18 attempts. The Skins’ offense looks good, averaging 369.2 YPG, but the defense is ranked just 26th in conceding 24.5. I’ll point out though that Dallas has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 19 on the road and in 11 of its last 16 as an underdog, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four off a divisional contest. These are two teams desperate to prove themselves defensively and with each putting an added emphasis on that side of the ball this weekend, I do indeed feel this number is just a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills -2.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 123 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 8 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. The 3-4 Oakland Raiders are in Buffalo to take on the 4-2 Bills on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the home side. Oakland looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its thrilling 31-30 home win over Kansas City. Conversely, I think the “under the radar” Bills are poised for another big day after holding on for a 30-27 win over a dangerous Tampa Bay team at home last weekend. Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Bills as well after they fell 38-24 in Oakland last season. So far Oakland has averaged just 22.1 PPG, while ranked 18th overall in allowing 22.3 PPG. QB Derek Carr has looked brilliant at times this season and downright awful in others. He was sharp against the Chiefs, going for 417 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. On the year Carr has 1,341 passing yards, 11 TD’s and four picks. Amari Cooper had a big game against KC, hauling in 11 passes for 210 yards and two TD’s. Note though that previous to that Cooper had just 146 total yards over his first six games, so reading too much into one decent start is in my opinion, dangerous. Buffalo enters ranked 19th in scoring with 19.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 16.8, ranked fourth. LeSean McCoy had 91 yards and two TD’s last week. QB Tyrod Taylor has 1,178 yards, seven TD’s and just two INT’s on the season. Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 games played in the month of October and just 2-4 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records, while Buffalo has excelled in this position by going 10-8 ATS in its last 18 at home (including 2-0 this season) and 2-1 ATS in its last three played in the month of October. The Raiders looked good with their backs against the wall last week, but as I stated earlier, I’m not reading too much into one decent performance. The Bills have been sharp all year and have been at the best at home. In my professional opinion, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on Buffalo. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints -9 | 12-20 | Loss | -103 | 120 h 39 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST). I’ve played the Saints the last two weeks and I think New Orleans is going to keep the goods times rolling with another convincing victory at home this afternoon. New Orleans most recently posted a solid 26-17 road win over Green Bay last week, while the Bears held on for an improbable 17-3 home win over Carolina. Chicago’s defense saved the day last week, because QB Mitchell Trubisky had just 107 yards on four passes. Over three games Trubisky has shown promise with 348 yards, two TD’s and one pick. The Bears’ offense struggled overall though and failed to score a TD. Chicago forced three turnovers, but note that despite that it still owns the 31st ranked pass defense in the league. New Orleans conceded just 260 total yards to Brett Hundley and the Packers last week. Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but there’s no question that the Saints looks vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Saints’ offense is of course led by QB Drew Brees, who wasn’t at his best in the victory last week, posting 338 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Overall though Brees is putting together another solid campaign with 1,652 passing yards and an 11:4 TD to INT ratio. One other player for New Orleans to keep your eyes on today is WR Ted Ginn Jr., who had 141 receiving yards on seven catches last weekend. I’ll point out as well that Chicago has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road and only 3-11 ATS in its last 14 after allowing less than 15 points in its previous outing, while New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU victory and 7-1 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records. New Orleans comes into this one on top form. The Bears’ biggest strength is their defense and the biggest weakness of that unit is the pass defense. That’s bad news facing a confident Drew Brees at home. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Falcons v. Jets +4.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 38 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST). Atlanta is 3-3 SU and comes off a horrible effort in New England last weekend. The Falcons have now lost three straight and look like a team with more questions than answers right now. New York has looked much better than almost everyone expected, but it will be looking to get back on track after consecutive setbacks to New England and Miami. In last weekend’s loss to New England, Atlanta suffered another injury to LB Duke Riley, who will be out for at least four weeks. After three straight wins, Matt Ryan and company continue to struggle with consistency. And that doesn’t bode well in facing this “under the radar” Jets’ defense in my opinion. Even at 3-4, New York is still in contention in the wide open AFC East. QB Josh McCown has been better than expected, last week going 17 of 27 for 209 yards, three TD’s and one pick, while also rushing a TD in himself. I’ll point out as well that ATL is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 following a SU loss, while New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd. McCown is on fire this year and won’t be shy to open up the playbook again today against this porous Falcons’ secondary. Note that McCown has completed almost 70 percent of his passes and already has ten TD’s. Ryan on the other hand has been a complete disaster, throwing six picks and just seven INT’s. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the Jets to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Panthers v. Bucs -2 | 17-3 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 38 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST). The 4-3 Carolina Panthers look to get back on track after a humbling 17-3 loss to Chicago last week, while the Bucs will be looking to take out their frustrations on someone after a tough 30-27 road loss in Buffalo. If recent history is any precedence though, then Tampa Bay has to be liking its chances today as it took both meetings in the series last year. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton was 21 of 34 for 211 yards, no TD’s and two INT’s last week. Newton is starting to show signs of fatigure already this year, having thrown five INT’s over his last two games (owns a poor 9/10 TD/INT ratio.) RB Jon Stewart managed just 48 yards on 14 carries. Note that in three games already this season the Panthers have scored 13 or fewer points. The defense remains a strength of the team and it looked good against the inept Bears last week, but clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test against the dynamic Jameis Winston and company. Winston was 32 of 44 for 384 yards, three TD’s and one INT in last week’s loss. So far he has 1,643 passing yards and 10/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Mike Evans continued his strong campaign with seven catches for 88 yards. Tampa’s defense struggled last Sunday, but it catches a break this weekend in facing a suddenly struggling Newton. Also note that Carolina is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 against the division and just 1-3 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records, while Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. Winston and his offense comes in on top form and he rides the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd. Newton is struggling and I think that gets carried over here. Play on Tampa Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 55 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST). The 4-2 Miami Dolphins are coming off an epic 31-28 win at the Atlanta Falcons. In that win they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to injury and were led to victory by backup Matt Moore. The Ravens meanwhile are just 3-4 and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle after falling 24-16 at Minnesota this past weekend. As mentioned off the top, Moore came in to replace Cutler last week and he’d go for 188 yards, two TD’s and a pick. RB Jay Ajayi though had just 51 yards on 23 attempts. The Fish are ranked 32nd in total offense this year with just 261.8 yards per game accumulated on average. Miami has made up for it on the defensive end though, giving up 18.7 PPG thus far. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was 27 of 39 for 186 yards with one TD and no picks last weekend. The Ravens are now dealing with injuries to the WR position and the unit is putting up just 18.3 PPG this year. The defense is poor against the run, but great against the pass (allowing 189.3 YPG in the air thus far.) I’ll point out though that Miami is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a divisional game and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 as an underdog, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less. Moore looked “ok” last weekend, but this is a difficult place to play and the short week won’t help matters. There’s big time pressure on Moore to perform and I think he’s going to stumble here. The correct call is on Flacco and the hungry home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-23-17 | Redskins +4.5 v. Eagles | 24-34 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 8 m | Show | |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST). The 3-2 Washington Redskins are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-1 Eagles on Monday night and while I obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the hungry visiting side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. The Eagles most recently beat the Panthers 28-23, while the Redskins are coming off a 26-24 home win over the 49ers last Sunday. Note that this is a revenge game after Philadelphia scored the victory in the first meeting between the team’s this year, a 30-17 win back on September 10th. Last week Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins was 25 of 37 for 330 yards, two TD’s and a pick. Washington looked a little flat footed coming out of its bye week, but managed to pull off the win in the end. So far the Skins have been getting the job done on the ground by committee, averaging 122.8 YPG thus far. Defensively Washington looks solid as well, allowing just 316 total yards per game, including only 88 rushing. The Eagles have been getting great play from QB Carson Wentz, who now has 1,584 yards, 13 TD’s and just three INT’s. While Philadelhpia is stout against the run (just 65.7 YPG), Cousins and company definitely catch a break today in facing the Eagles’ 29th ranked pass defense, which allows 273.5 YPG. Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against the division and only 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points, while Washington is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 on the road and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I think Cousins has a big day against this pathetic Eagles’ secondary. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-17 | Falcons v. Patriots OVER 54 | 7-23 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the over Falcons/Patrios (8:30 EST). It’s a Super Bowl rematch and in my opinion, all signs point to a high-scoring shootout. The 3-2 Falcons will be desperate here. Not only to avenge last year’s epic loss in the Super Bowl, but also because of the fact that they’re coming off consecutive losses at the hands of Buffalo and Miami. Matt Ryan and Atlanta have looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others. After having a 17-0 halftime lead last weekend, the Dirty Birds were shutout in the second half to the Dolphins and eventually succumbed 20-17. It definitely felt like the second half of last year’s Super Bowl collapse and with that thought on their very front of their minds this weekend, I think we can expect to see the Falcons at their sharpest today. New England comes in off a harder than expected 24-17 win over the Jets last weekend. The Pats have so far been less than impressive offensively and they’ll also be looking for a breakout performance. Tom Brady absolutely decimated the Falcons’ suspect secondary in the Super Bowl and the legend does definitely look primed for another big performance this evening. So far Brady has 1,959 yards, 13 TD’s and two INT’s. I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in six of its last 11 against teams with winning records, while New England has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 20 in the same position. All signs point to a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-17 | Seahawks -5 v. Giants | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 143 h 51 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST). The 3-2 Seattle Seahawks will look to take advantage of a depleted New York Giants team that could come in contented and flat-footed here after finally geting the monkey off its back in last week’s Sunday nighter. The Hawks went into their bye week off consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams, while the Giants got off the schneid with a victory in Denver this past weekend. Seattle has looked signficantly better after a shaky start to the season, but with an extra week to prepare for this one, I believe that Russell Wilson and company are going to have a big night. Wilson is a time management master and he’s going to be able to keep his offense on the field of play as long as possible today, so as to keep the Giants’ Eli Manning off of it. The Giants needed their defense to step up big last week and it did. Manning was adequate, but I think he’s going to struggle against the Seahawks elite defensive unit. New York has become completely one dimensional because of some key recent injuries and this is not a favorable defensive matchup for it whatsoever. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is interestingly 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory. The Giants won last week despite only posting 266 yards of offense. That’s simply not going to get it done against this rested/focused Seahawks side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-17 | Panthers -3 v. Bears | 3-17 | Loss | -120 | 148 h 58 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car panthers at 1;00 ET. The Panthers hosted the Eagles in Week 6's Thursday game in a showdown of two, 4-1 teams. Carolina came up on the short end of that one, as Carson Wentz out-played Newton, throwing three TD passes without an INT. Newton attempted 52 passes and had three INTs against just one TD. The Bears come in off a 27-24 OT win last Sunday at Baltimore, as Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, earned his first win as an NFL starter. Trubisky did nothing special, completing 8 of 16 passes for 113 yards but didn't throw an interception and had one TD pass. However, he also lost one of his two fumbles. Carolina takes its 4-2 record (good enough to lead the NFC South) to Soldier Field on Sunday, with Chicago coming in at 2-4 (Packers and Vikings lead the NFC North at 4-2, while the Lions are 3-3). The Panthers are typically successful when Newton has rushing stats like in Week 6 (11 carries for 71 yards) but the problem was the rest of the team's running attack was non-existent (just nine yard on 14 attempts!). Newton was off back-to-back outstanding efforts in road wins at New England (33-30) and Detroit (27-24), where he had completed 77.4% for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT. His effort against Philly was quite a come-down, going 28 of 52 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5. While Newton got no help from his RBs, Trubisky saw Jimmy Howard run for 167 yards, a the Bears ran for 231 yards as a team. However, don't expect a repeat effort here, as the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL in rush D, allowing 83.3 YPG. Overall, Carolina ranks 4th in total D (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG. Trubisky still has a lot to learn and he'll lead an offense averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and the Chicago D ranks 25th in points allowed (24.7 per), which won't make his job any easier. Two recent stats favor Carolina, as the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss, while the Bears are 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. Let me also add that Carolina is 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017. Newton out-played Brady in New England and coming off a loss (with some extra time to prepare off a Thursday night game in Week 6), my bet says he 'takes down' the rookie Trubisky (and the Bears), "with room to spare!' Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-17 | Saints -6 v. Packers | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 139 h 27 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST). The surging 3-2 New Orleans Saints are in Green Bay to take on the devastated 4-2 Packers this Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I had a play on New Orleans as my “Las Vegas Insider” last weekend it went on to annihilate Detroit 52-38. Green Bay comes in off a crushing 23-10 loss at Minnesota last weekend, losing Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers to injury in the process. New Orleans so far averages 29.0 PPG, ranked fourth in the league. Defensively the Saints aren’t great, ranked 21st in conceding 23.2 PPG. However, compared to last season’s dumpster fire of a defense, New Orleans looks markedly improved this year on that side of the ball (sacked Matt Stafford five times.) QB Drew Brees was 21 of 31 for 186 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. So far he has 1,321 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s on the year. Green Bay is ranked tenth in scoring with 24.5 PPG, but with Rodgers out, that stat is meaningless now. The defense has been middle of the pack, ranked 18th in allowing 22.5 PPG. I’ll point out that New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight-up loss. Brett Hundley is not going to be able to keep pace with Brees today, who will smell the blood in the water and who will put the foot on the gas early to try and deliver the knock out blow. I don’t think the Green Bay defense will be up to the task of slowing down the Saints’ veteran pivot. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-17 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Rams | 0-33 | Loss | -107 | 139 h 26 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Cardinals (1:00 EST). The 3-3 Arizona Cardinals are in LA to take on the 4-2 division rival Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Last weekend Cards’ RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 134 yards and two TD’s on 26 carries in Arizona’s 38-33 win over Tampa Bay. QB Carson Palmer looked much better and he’ll now look to take advantage of this suspect Rams’ secondary. The Rams stumbled out of the gate against the Jaguars last weekend, but recovered in the second half for an impressive victory of their own. But strictly from a trend based stand-point, there’s no question that this one heavily favors the visitors today, as Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while the Rams are a brutal 0-5 ATS in their last five against the NFC West. This one has the feel of whichever team has the ball in its hands last will find a way to win this game. And in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the underdog. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the under Chiefs/Raiders (8:25 EST). The 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs are at division rival, 2-4 Oakland on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. KC comes in off a 19-13 home loss to Pittsburgh, while the Raiders will be desperate to get back into the winners circle this weekend after dropping four straight, most recently a 17-16 home loss to the Chargers. The Chiefs had 223 passing yards last Sunday, but allowed 439 in the setback to the Steelers. KC was particularly horrible against the run, allowing 179 yards to Le’Veon Bell. Kansas City though catches a break facing this stalled Raiders offense. We can expect the Raiders to focus heavily on the run while on offense obviously. Oakland though has averaged just 13.2 PPG during the slide. Last week QB Derek Carr was 21 of 30 for 171 yards with one TD and two INT’s. The Raiders’ defense has also struggled this season, but will also catch a break against a winded Chiefs team, reeling from its first loss of the year and having to deal with a short week. Additionally I’ll point out that KC has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 14 against clubs with losing records and in six of its last nine as a road favorite of three points or less, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of its last 14 against divisional foes. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” where field position becomes paramount, rather than a high-scoring “track meet.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-17 | Colts +9 v. Titans | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST). The 2-3 Colts are in Tennessee to take on the 2-3 Titans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Indianapolis comes in off a confidence building 26-23 OT win over San Francisco, while Tennessee looked horrible in its 16-10 road loss in Miami last weekend. If recent history is any precedence, then the Colts have to be liking their chances today, as they’ve won 11 straight in the series, including a a 24-17 home victory in the most recent matchup. Of course, most/all of those games in that win streak were started by either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Regardless, I absoultely believe that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. So far the Colts average 19.4 PPG and allow 32.8 The team looked better last week though, winning the yardage battle 447-402 and had a sizeable advantage in time of possession, going 37:17 to 31:05. Indaianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 997 yards, two TD’s and three INT’s. Brissett though is learning on the fly and has definitely looked stronger with each outing. Frank Gore leads the ground game with 239 yards and two major scores thus far. Tennessee averages 22 PPG and allows 28.4. Last week the Titans gave up six sacks, while also committing 11 penalties. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has 792 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s thus far, while also posting 116 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. He missed the Miami game, but is expected to start here. If he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. And if he doesn’t play, then Matt Cassel will get the call, so far he has 162 yards, a TD and two INT’s this season. RB DeMarco Murray has 273 yards and one TD. I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Mariota’s health? It’s definitely a big question mark for this one. I think Brissett can keep his team competitive, so grab up those points! Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals OVER 44.5 | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 142 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is on the over Bucs/Cards (4:05 EST). Two teams coming off low-scoring losses will look to turn things around on the offensive end. With each side putting an added emphasis on that side of the field, I do indeed believe this number is just a little low. The Bucs fell 19-14 at home to the Pats, while the Cards come in off a disappointing 34-7 setback at Philadelphia. Note that Tampa will be playing with the added motivation of revenge after Arizona smashed it 40-7 last season. Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston has 1,198 yards and a 7/3 TD/INT ratio. DeSean Jackson had five catches for 105 yards last week. The Tampa defense looked decent against New England, but I believe it’s going to have its hands full in this one. Arizona’s defense looked as bad as its offense did last week. Neither unit is as bad as what it showed though and I do expect to see marked improvement on both sides of the ball on Sunday (especially on the offensive.) Noet that Tampa has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 14 against teams with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six against NFC South opponents. The Cards offense is still ranked second in the NFL in passing with 289 yards per game and I think that’s going to finally translate into some points this weekend. All signs point to a shootout, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Browns +11 v. Texans | 17-33 | Loss | -135 | 139 h 57 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). The 0-5 Cleveland Browns never expected to make the playoffs this season, but they also weren’t expecting things to be quite this bad. While the Browns are now already “looking ahead” until next year, I still think they offer plenty of value in this spot. Cleveland is most recently coming off a hard-fought setback at home to the Jets, while Houston was smashed by the Cheifs in the Sunday nighter, losing star defensive player JJ Watt for the season again to injury in the process. The Browns once again turn to rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who has three TD’s and nine INT’s thus far. QB Kevin Hogan could see time though as well and so far he has 377 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s on the season. The good thing though is that Cleveland faces another rookie QB in DeShaun Watson this weekend, Clearly Watson is further along with his progression than Kizer at the moment, but it’s not like he’s going up against an Aaron Rodgers or anything this afternoon. It’s interesting to note as well that the Browns are 2-1 ATS in their last three against the AFC South, while Houston is already just 1-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year. After the humbling loss to Kansas City, not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the home side, but with its bye coming next week, it also sets up as a look ahead spot. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Browns. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | 24-17 | Loss | -109 | 139 h 57 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST). Both division rivals sit at 3-2 to open the season, but for a number of different reaosns I think this one favors the visiting side. After falling at home 33-30 to Carolina, the Pats bounced back with a solid 19-14 road win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was 30 of 40 for 303 yards, one TD and one INT last week. New England also posted 113 yards on the ground. New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is not taking the Jets’ defense lightly: “They’re a really hard-nosed, tough, physical team,” McDaniels assessed. “They know us very well. We know them. They’ve got a physical front. They’ve got a very talented front. They’ve got speed at linebacker. They’ve got length on the edge. They’ve got some really, really talented inside players with (defensive linemen Leonard) Williams, (Muhammad) Wilkerson, (and Steve) McLendon. Those guys are tough to block and do a really good job for them inside. And they’ve got some new guys in the secondary that this will be our first opportunity to play against them and get to know them this week with (safeties Marcus) May and (Jamal) Adams. (Cornerback Morris) Claiborne we’ve played against before, but not as a Jet. So this is a new group; a physical bunch.” The Jets offense took a hit when RB Bilal Powell strained a calf this weekend, making him day-to-day. Starting RB Matt Forte is already out with turf toe. If either manages to suit up for this one, clearly they’re not going to be at 100% capacity. I’ll also point out that the Patriots have in fact excelled in this spot for bettors over the years, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight against teams with winning records (they’re also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.) Additionally note that the Jets are interestingly just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their previous game. Brandin Cooks already has 18 catchs for 379 yards and two TD’s for New England this year and Brady has shown no signs of slowing down. After a couple of mediocre performances in a row, I look for this high-powered New England offense to finally get untracked. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4 | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 136 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. The Lions opened the 2017 season with a 35-23 home win over the Cardinals and followed with a 24-10 MNF win at the NY Giants in Week 2. However, neither of those wins look very impressive now and Detroit will head to New Orleans having lost two of its last three, needing a win to not fall back to .500 at 3-3. Meanwhile, the Saints opened the 2017 season with double-digit losses at Minnesota (29-19) and home to New England (36-20) but then shocked the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina in Week 3 before shutting out the Dolphins 2-0 in London during Week 4. New Orleans was one of four teams with a Week 5 bye and now welcomes the Lions to the Superdome, a team which has beaten them in each of the last three seasons, 24-23 in Detroit in 2014, then 35-27 and 28-13 the last two years here in New Orleans. The Lions hosted the Panthers last Sunday, entering that game surviving by being extremely opportunistic on both sides of the ball, Detroit was averaging 24.8 PPG but just 299.8 YPG in total offense plus was allowing just 17.5 PPG (4th-best), despite ranking 15th in total defense. The team's plus-9 turnover margin had played a huge role in the team reaching 3-1. However, the Lions could not force a single TO against the Panthers, as Cam Newton ripped Detroit's pass D for 355 yards and three TDs. The Lions gained only 192 yards of offense on their own, going 5 of 13 on third down tries (0-1 on 4th-down). QB Stafford is completing 64.6% with nine TDs and just one INT but the Lions rank just 23rd in passing (200.6 YPG). RB Ameer Abdullah had a career-high 94 yards in the Week 4 win at Minnesota but is averaging just 48.5 YPG on the ground in Detroit's other four games, as the team ranks 26th in rushing on the season at 87.6 YPG. If the Lions think that they can win by forcing Brees into mistakes, they had better think again. New Orleans' age-less QB hasn't thrown an interception in 152 attempts this season, while passing for eight TDs (108.3 QB rating) and leading the Saints to average 276.5 YPG through the air (ranks 4th). In fact, the Saints have yet to commit a single TO through four games, only the third NFL team since 1935 to open the season in such a manner! As for the New Orleans' D, talk about turnarounds! The Saints allowed a league-worst 777 passing yards and tied for the league lead with six TD passes allowed in opening 0-2. However, they then hen they flipped the switch, becoming the only NFL team that didn’t allow a TD pass in Weeks 3 or 4. That Week 3 game came against Cam Newton and the Panthers and while Newton shredded the Lions last Sunday in Detroit for 355 yards and three TDs, the Saints held him to 167 yards with no TD passes and three INTs on his home field (QB rating of 43.8)! In Weeks 1 & 2 the Saints allowed 11 passing plays of 24-plus yards and 23 passing plays of 15-plus yards but in Weeks 3 & 4, they allowed one passing play of 24-plus yards and six of 15-plus yards. The Lions are overrated and while I'm not completely sold on the Saints as of yet, they have the advantage of an extra week of rest coming into this one off that London game. Lay the points! Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Dolphins v. Falcons -11 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 57 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). The Falcons are rested, coming off their bye week and I look for them to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Atlanta will be especially motivated here as well after falling to the Bills in their last outing. Conversely, Miami comes in contented after its two-game slide ended with a win over the Titans. Despite that 16-10 victory though, the Fish have scored a grand total of 41 points through the first four games and QB Jay Cutler has for the most part struggled. Note that the Miami offense was shutout by the Saints earlier in the year. The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Falcons though: “It’s a perfect time for us to reset,” head coach Dan Quinn noted. “For whatever reason, the bye hit us at the right time based on some injuries. It was great to have those guys back.” (Julio Jones, OT Ryan Schraeder, LB Vic Beasley and safety Ricardo Allen.) I’ll point out as well that the Dolphins are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against clubs with winning records, while the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five following their bye-week. Cutler is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this hostile environment. With a week to re-focus and plan for this one, all signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (8:25 EST). The short week almost always favors the home side and I believe that’s going to be the case here. The Eagles are 4-1 SU/ATS, while the Panthers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Philadelphia cruised to a 34-7 win over the Cardinals last weekend, while Carolina won 27-24 in Detroit for a second straight road victory. The Eagles are flying high, but let’s not get too carried away as their level of competition has been very low, beating the Giants 27-24 and the Chargers 26-24. Clearly the Cardinals have major issues as well. In my opinion Philadelphia has yet to be tested this year, something which is about to change this weekend. Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was 21 of 30 for 304 yards and four TD’s last week, while RB LeGarrette Blount had 74 yards on 14 carries. Philadelphia is averaging 397.8 YPG and conceding 346. Carolina is averaging 327.2 YPG and conceding 274 (ranked third.) Panthers’ QB Cam Netwon had 355 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. RB Christian McCaffrey caught a TD pass in that one. Philadelphia though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of three points or less. As mentioned off the top, this is going to be the best defense that Wentz has seen all season and ultimately I think the opportunistic home side unit will prove to be be the difference maker in this contest. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bears (8:30 EST). The Vikings are 2-2 SU/ATS while the Bears are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Minnesota comes in off a listless 14-7 loss at home to Detroit. Starting QB Sam Bradford is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. If Bradford does suit up for this one, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. The Vikes also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL last week when he fumbled the ball, a costly turnover which led to a Lions’ TD. Once Cook went down, the offense stalled and suffice it to say, I think that’s going to be the case again on Monday night. Minnesota’s backup QB Case Keenum was 16 of 30 for 210 yards. Chicago enters off a 35-14 loss at Green Bay with QB Mike Glennon under center in that one. Glennon is out for this one though, as the Bears turn to rookie Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky showed a lot of promise in the preseason and he’ll have a big opportunity here facing this less than 100% Vikings squad. The Bears’ pass defense was a bright spot in last week’s loss, holding Aaron Rodgers to just 179 passing yards (although he did throw four TD’s.) Trubisky will be leaning heavily on RB Jordan Howard, who has 302 yards and four TD’s. Chicago’s defense is going to be a big difference maker in my opinion though, as it allows 220.8 YPG through the air and just 85.5 YPG on the ground. And that’s bad news for Minnesota’s offense in my opinion, as right now the unit is a disaster. Trubisky is a rookie, but Vikes’ coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t have a lot of game tape on the kid yet. I think the door is wide open for an outright upset. That said, I’ll grab the points in the end. Good luck….Larry |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks v. Rams UNDER 47 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 141 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the under Hawks/Rams (4:05 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think points will be at premium in this divisional contest. Both teams come in off high-scoring blowouts, with Seattle stomping Indianpolis, while LA rolled over Dallas 35-30. The Rams surprisingly come into this one with the top offense in the league, but I think it’s finally going to stumble here, facing one of the better defensive units it will see all season. Seattle’s offense has so far been hit or miss this year. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has seven TD’s and two INT’s and a 94 passer rating. So far Seattle has conceded 19.3 PPG, including holding every opponent to under 200 yards passing to this point. The Hawks lost RB Chris Carson, which means that Thomas Rawls is going to get another shot. A one dimensional offense has become even more so unfortunately for Seattle. Jared Goff and the Rams’ offense has looked sharp, but clearly he faces his stiffest test to date. Expect to see a heavy dose of RB Todd Gurley in this one, as he enters among the rushing leaders. Also note that Gurley leads LA in receiving yards as well. I’ll point out that Seattle has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four against the division, while LA has seen the total go under in eight of its last 13 in the same position. A big game for both teams. All signs point to more of a “chess match,” where field position becomes paramount, rather than a “track meet” in my professional opinion. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | Chargers v. Giants -3.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Four weeks into the 2017 season, four teams remain win-less. The list includes the Browns, Chargers, Giants and Niners. Two of those teams, the now-LA Chargers and the NY Giants, will go head-to-head at MetLife Stadium in Week 5 with one team (barring a tie), getting off the schnied. The Chargers' schnied is quite a bit 'bigger' than the Giants', as while New York made the postseason in 2016 (lost badly at Green Bay in the wild card round), the Chargers are coming off a season in which the team was 5-11 and lost its final five games. That means the Chargers enter this game on a nine-game losing streak, with an 0-8-1 ATS record, as well (Opening Week push at the Broncos in 2017 is LA's lone non-loss ATS in that stretch). The Chargers narrowly lost to the Eagles 26-24 last Sunday, the team's third straight home contest. QB Philip Rivers threw for 347 yards and two TDs (covering 22 and 38 yards) on 22 of 38 passing. The Chargers had a pair of 100-yard receivers, as Keenan Allen (24 catches on the season) caught five balls for 138 yards, while Tyrell Williams caught five passes for 115 yards. RB Melvin Gordon struggled once again (10 carries for just 22 yards) and has only 168 yards (3.1 YPC) after four games. LA is averaging only 67.5 YPG (3.6 YPC), which ranks 29th among the NFL's 32 teams. LA's offense wasn't the problem in Week 4, as the defense allowed 454 yards of total offense, while being dominated in the time of TOP battle, allowing Philly to hold onto the ball for just over 39 of the game's 60 minutes. The Giants also lost a close one in Week 4, 25-23 at Tampa Bay, when the Buccaneers kicked a game-winning 34-yard FG on the contest's final play. Eli Manning completed 30 of 49 pass for 288 yards and two TDs (no INTs) plus added a 14-yard TD run. Wayne Gallman led the team with 42 rushing yards on 11 carries but on the season, the Giants have run the ball worse than the Chargers, averaging only 59.3 YPG (3.2 YPC) to rank 31st. The Giants D allowed only 17.8 PPG in 2016, tops in the NFC and second-best in the entire NFL to New England. However, the Giants allowed the Bucs 434 yards of total offense, despite the Giants offense holding onto the ball for over 34 minutes. New York checks in allowing 23.8 PPG through four games, which is SIX points higher than last season's average. The Chargers actually may get get more crowd support at MetLife than they do in their own StubHub Center, as it's quickly become obvious that the LA fans have shown little or no interest in welcoming the team from San Diego. As for New York fans, the team's 0-4 start has made “Fire Ben McAdoo” a popular search topic on Google. Both teams have significant issues but "someone has to win!" My bet says it's the Giants, as Eli has a plethora of receiving options in WRs like OBJ, Shepard and Marshall plus rookie TE Engram. New York also just may be able to get a running game going against a Chargers rush D which is allowing 163.5 YPPG (31st) on 4.8 YPC. The Giants WON'T be making the postseason in 2017 but after an 0-4 start, ENOUGH is ENOUGH! Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -2.5 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 137 h 27 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST). The Bills are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS, while the Bengals are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Clearly not many would have predicted that this would be the case for these teams at this point of the season. Buffalo looks primed for a letdown here though after its big 23-17 road win against the Falcons. It’s hard to win on the road. It’s even harder to win back-tp-back road games, let alone cover both as well. The Bills have come a long way no doubt, but they now face a super hungry Bengals team which comes in off its first win of the year after downing the Browns 31-17 last weekend. Note that Cincinnati plays with revenge here as well after Buffalo won 16-12 on the road last season. Buffalo took advantage of an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu last week. QB Tyrod Taylor was an unimpressive 12 of 20 for 182 yards, a TD. The Bills have looked good, not great in my opinion. The Bengals have obviously looked pretty bad, but they sure looked a lot better in last week’s victory over Cleveland. QB Andy Dalton was 25 of 30 for 286 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s. After a slow start, Dalton now has six TD’s over his last two games. WR AJ Green had five catches for 63 yards and a TD. The Bengals’ have looked much better defensively as well after a slower start to the season, last week allowing only 215 total yards, including just 45 rushing. A great situational play in my opinion. Buffalo gets caught “looking ahead” to its bye-week, while the desperate home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | 49ers v. Colts | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 137 h 26 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). The 49ers are 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS, while the Colts are just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. San Fran looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its deflating 18-15 OT road loss to Arizona last week. After beating Cleveland at home, the Colts fell 46-18 in Seattle last weekend. So far the 49ers are ranked 26th in the league in scoring at 16.5 PPG, while ranked 24th in the league on the defensive side in conceding 23.5. QB Brian Hoyer was 24 of 49 for 234 yards and an INT last week. The defense looked decent, limiting the Cardinals to just 51 yards on the ground. Indianapolis is ranked 25th in scoring with 17.8 PPG, while ranked 32nd in the league on the defensive side in conceding 34.0 PPG. Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett was 16 of 29 for 157 yards, a TD and an INT last week. Indianapolis actually led the game 15-10 at the break, before then falling apart in the second half. A couple of really lousy teams going head-to-head in this one, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this particular matchup. I’ll also point out that San Francisco is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 against teams with losing records, while Indianapolis is 26-8 ATS in its last 24 in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Colts. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 137 h 26 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the surging visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Carolina beat the Pats on the road 33-30 last weekend, while Detroit comes in off a listless 14-7 win over the Vikings. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had three TD passes and also ran another one in on the ground. The defense looked a little suspect, but look at who the opponent was. The unit bent, but it did not break: “It can be a catalyst, a stepping-stone,” Panthers’ Coach Ron Rivera assessed afterwards. “It kind of felt a little bit like what happened a couple of years ago when we went to Seattle. They were the watermark for us, as far as the NFC was concerned. So we were able to have success there, and from that point we had success.” Detroit was trailing 7-3 at half time last week, before coming back in the second half for the victory. So far the Lions have looked good, not great in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Carolina is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 250 or more passing yards in its previous contest, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after allowing 15 points or less in its previous outing. I like Newton to build off his last performance and give the Lions’ defense everything it can handle. Play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 73 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:25 EST). While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the improving home side to give the defending champs everything they can handle today. The Pats are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Tampa is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. It’s a short-week, which almost always benefits the home side (for obvious reasons.) Last week the Bucs came from behind to beat the Giants 25-23, while New England comes to town off a humbling 33-30 setback at home to Carolina. New England’s defense is a mess right now and I don’t foresee things getting easier in this hostile environment. The Pats’ struggled against the mobile Cam Newton, allowing him to throw for 316 yards and a three TD’s, as well as rush for 44 and another major score. Remember, the Pats also gave up 44 points to the Chiefs on Opening Night (I had KC in that one.) And that doesn’t bode well facing the extremely mobile Jameis Winston who was 22 of 38 for 332 yards and three TD’s with no picks last week. RB Jacquizz Rodgers added 83 yards on the ground. The Bucs’ defense looked stout as well, allowing just 379 yards to the Giants. Winston isn’t getting nearly enough respect in my opinion, as he’s going to be able to pick apart this Pats’ suspect secondary. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Buccaneers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 101 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST). Washington is 2-1 SU/ATS, while Kansas City is 3-0 SU/ATS. I base my picks on many different things. For the most part with this selection, I simply feel it sets up great for Kansas City. The Redskins are coming off back-to-back wins, including a satisfying 27-10 victory over the Raiders at home last Sunday night. With its “bye” coming next week, it’s not too hard to imagine at all Washington getting caught “looking ahead” in some small way to its time off. Conversely the Chiefs are on the road again next week for a tough one against suddenly surging Houston, making tonight’s contest all that much more important. As I said, from an overall situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this. If we look at what each of these teams have done over the first three weeks, clearly they’re very evenly matched up and down the board and on both ends of the field. Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins and Chiefs’ pivot Alex Smith are a “wash.” The defenses have been probably even better than the offenses (and the offenses have been getting great production, both through the air on the ground.) Two even teams, but the overall “situation” greatly favors the home side. I’ll also point out that the Redskins are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or more in their previous contest, while KC is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a win against a division rival. I expect KC to take advantage of the above listed factors and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 153 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:30 EST). Both teams enter at 1-2 SU, however the Seahawks are 0-3 ATS, while the Colts are 2-1 ATS. Many experts believed the Seahwawks would be in the Super Bowl this year, but clearly the team has issues in all three phases right now. The offense has been anemic, especially in the red zone. The defense has been decent, but has been susceptible to giving up the big play. However, the Andrew Luck-less Colts come to town contented after their first win of the season, holding off the Browns 31-28 at home last weekend. The Seahawks will now be looking to take advantage of this complacency and take out their frustrations after falling 33-27 on the road at Tennessee. Indy forced three turnovers last Sunday, but it’s still just ranked 20th in scoring offense with 17.7 PPG, The defense is the worst in the entire league though, conceding 31 PPG thus far. QB Jacoby Brissett is 39 of 64 for 526 yards, one TD and one INT, while RB Frank Gore leads the ground attack with 145 yards and two TD’s. Seattle averages just 16 PPG so far, but it’s ranked eighth overall in scoring defense in conceding 19.7 PPG. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 729 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s, while adding another 100 yards rushing as well. Doug Baldwin is Wilson’s top target with 20 catches for 212 yards and a TD. I’ll point out that Indianapolis has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while though, going just 1-7 ATS in its last eight after scoring more than 30 points in its last game, while also going 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory. Conversely, Seattle has excelled in this position by going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against a club with a losing record. There’s no team in the league right now that’s under-performed more than the Seahawks to this point. Clearly they can’t be happy whatsoever. But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The Colts picked up their backup QB just before the season began. Beating the Browns at home is one thing, but competing with this highly motivated Seahawks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder in front of the home town crowd is quite another. I have a hard time seeing the Colts mustering much offense this week and I expect Wilson to finally have a break out signature performance. Lay the points with confidence, play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-17 | Giants +4 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 150 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET. It's Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season but Tampa Bay has played just two games (1-1), as its Week 1 contest against Miami was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. The Buccaneers welcome the win-less NY Giants (0-3) to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday for a game in which it's fair to say, both teams badly need to win. The Giants are looking to avoid an 0-4 start for the first time since 2013 and a loss here would all but 'bury' them in an NFC East division in which all three rivals sit 2-1 after three games. Expectations for the Bucs were high coming into 2017 but in the NFC South, the Falcons are already 3-0 and the Panthers 2-1, so a 1-2 start to a season in which the team will play the rest of the year without the benefit of bye, would likely not bode well. The Giants' offense finally got going in the fourth quarter last Sunday, as Eli threw three TD passes and New York rallied for 24 points. However, Philadelphia PK Jake Elliott's made a 61-yard FG on the game's final play, giving the Eagles the 27-24 win. The Giants hadn't scored 20 points in eight straight games before Manning led them to 21 points in a span of 5:21. He tossed TD passes of 10 yards and four yards to Odell Beckham Jr. to tie it at 14. Manning then connected over the middle to Shepard, who broke a couple tackles and sprinted all the way for a 21-14 lead. However, it was all for naught, as Elliott, who hadn't made a FG of more than 40 yards in an NFL game prior to Sunday, connected on the longest game-winner in NFL history for a rookie and a franchise record for Philly (it's tied for the third-longest game-winning kick in the final 10 seconds in NFL history!). The Giants own the NFL's worst rushing offense (48.7 YPG) and so far, its defense has not looked like the dominating unit from 2016. Tampa Bay also owns a poor running game, averaging just 71.5 YPG (26th). QB QB Jameis Winston has completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 532 yards with three TDs and three interceptions. However, as we saw against the Vikings last Sunday, he still has a tendency to force the ball into tight windows (Minny had three INTs!). The Tampa Bay defense has to be a worry, as last week it allowed a whopping 494 yards to a Minnesota team with Case Keenum at QB (entered the game 9-16 as an NFL starter). Keenum threw for 369 yards and three TDs (zero INTs), completing 25 of 33. Are you kidding me? The week before, the Bucs faced former QB Mike Glennon (was 5-14 as a NFL starter entering that contest), now with the Bears. Against those two "marginal" QBs (I'm being kind here), the Bucs have allowed 329.5 YPG passing after two games, ranking 31st of 32 teams. Also, the pass rush has produced just one sack. Eli's OL is a worry but the Bucs don't seem all that suited to pressure him. The Giants came excruciatingly close to their first victory last Sunday and the team will either bounce-back from that near-win, or let it derail its season with another losing effort. Considering that Tampa Bay is just 2-8 ATS it last 10 as a home favorite, my bet says the Giants rebound. Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-17 | Jaguars v. Jets +3.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 146 h 11 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST). Both teams come off victories. Jacksonville smashed Baltimore 44-7 in London last week. Now the Jags have to transition back to America for another road game and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable “letdown” in this spot. Conversely, New York is primed for another big effort here after knocking off the Dolphins 20-6 at home last Sunday. Jags’ QB Blake Bortles had 244 passing yards and four TD’s last weekend, while the Jacksonville defense held the Ravens scoreless until the final possession of the game. RB Leonard Fournette had 59 rushing yards and a TD as well. Jacksonville looked great in an opening week win over Houston as well, only to then lay an egg at home in Week 2 against the Titans. Consistency from week to week is still a problem in my opinion. The Jets held the Dolphins to just 225 total yards and I think the unit is going to have another big day against the road weary Jags’ offense. New York QB Josh McCown had 249 passing yards and a TD, while RB Bilal Powell added 37 rushing yards and a TD. The Jets would completely shut down the Dolphins run game, holding Jay Ajayi to 16 yards on 11 carries. I’ll point out as well that the Jags are in fact 0-2 ATS in their last two as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the same points range. Bortles had a big game last week, but I think he stumbles here against this vastly underrated Jets’ defensive unit. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-17 | Bengals v. Browns +3.5 | 31-7 | Loss | -125 | 146 h 11 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect the home side to keep this one competitive from start to finish. The Bengals are getting too much respect in this position, considering their 0-3 in my opinion. QB Andy Dalton has been poor with 606 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. Browns’ rookie QB DeShone Kizer can empathize, he has 646 yards, three TD’s and seven INT’s. The Bengals fell 27-24 in OT in Green Bay on Sunday, blowing a late 21-7 lead. Dalton had 212 passing yards and two TD’s. WR AJ Green was a bright spot with 111 receiving yards and a TD. Cincinnati though lost the yardage battle 344-301. The Browns also come in off a nali-biting loss, falling 31-28 to the Colts in OT on Sunday. Expectations and pressure is a lot lower on Kizer and company than Dalton and his crew, so the setback is clealry a positive for this young Browns team. Kizer did finish with 242 passing yards and two TD’s (also three INT’s.) Duke Johnson Jr. had 81 yards on six catches for the Browns, while Kenny Britt had 54 yards and a TD. The Browns offense can put points on the board and the team is just as skilled as the Bengals are in all three phases. As mentioned off the top, with the way that Dalton is playing right now, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset in this one (but as also mentioned above, make sure to grab the points!) Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Ravens | Top | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 146 h 11 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST). I use many different techniques when handicapping throughout the season. Sometimes for me its all about the players on the field, but other times its about stats or situations. And that for the most part is the case here. The Ravens are coming off a humiliating 44-7 loss in England and while they looked great over their first two games, I think they’re set up for another letdown here after transitioning back State side. The Steelers are also coming off a loss, falling 23-17 in OT to lowly Chicago. QB Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 29 for 235 yards and a TD, while also adding a six-yard rush and losing a fumble. Roethlisberger has been decent, but not great to open the season. But with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and pass-catching RB Le’Veon Bell, I think it’s just a matter of time before “Big Ben” returns to form. After two decent outings, Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco was a disaster last weekend, completing eight passes for 28 yards and two INT’s. Flacco is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and it was finally exposed in this one as he was forced to continually settle for check downs. Note that the Ravens only scored on the final possession of the game, long after backup Ryan Mallett had taken over. The Steelers did play well defensively last week and I think that’s going to spell big trouble once again for Flacco and company this afternoon. Additionally I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is interestingly 5-3 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October, while Baltimore is just 1-7 ATS in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers -7 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Green Bay Packers (8:25 EST). Lambeau is a tough spot to play in and suffice it to say, I think the Bears are going to predictably stumble here. Chicago looks primed for a letdown after its upset win at home over Pittsburgh last week. Green Bay also won in OT, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals 27-24 at home. Purely from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the Packers. Both teams off hard-fought OT victories, now have to transition to the short week for the nationally televised Thursday night game. The short week almost always favors the home side and certainly in this spot, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has an immense amount of experience in these scenarios. The Bears got 138 rushing yards from Jordan Howard in their upset victory over Pittsburgh. Chicago’s passing game has been a disaster though because of injury. QB Mike Glennon was 19 of 22 for 101 yards last week and was also sacked twice and threw a pick. That type of play simply isn’t going to get the job done this week against a now re-focused Packers team led by Rogers, who had 313 yards with three TD’s last Sunday. The running game looked weak, but the defense was decent in holding the Bengals to just 301 total yards. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while Green Bay is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 in front of the home town crowd. I think the Bears are content with their big victory, while the Packers are eager to atone for their near upset loss last Sunday. Lay the points with confidence, play on Green Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Arizona Cardinals (8:30 EST). Both teams come into this at 1-1 SU. The Cards have yet to play a home game, so there’s no question that that atmosphere is going to be electric in the building tonight. The Cowboys didn’t do so well in a similar environment, albeit at Mile High on Sunday Night last weekend, getting crushed 42-17 by the Broncos. After losing in Detroit in Week 1, Arizona finally got untracked and posted a victory in Indianapolis last weekend. The Cowboys’ offensive line was a strength last year, but it looked shaky last Sunday. In fact, the entire Dallas offensive unit looked out of sorts. The defense is also now a major issue, with several key injuries in the secondary. And that doesn’t bode well facing Carson Palmer at home. Palmer had 332 passing yards last week to go along with a TD and INT. Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw two INT’s last week and he faces another stiff test, as last weekend the Cardinals allowed 190 passing yards and just 76 rushing yards. I’ll point out that Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, while the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins +3.5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 122 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER SHOCKER is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the home side will at the very least, take this one down to the wire. This is a long trip for the Raiders to make cross country. Throw in the national spot light and there’s no doubt that this one favors the Redskins from a situational stand point. Oakland comes in off a 45-20 win over the Jets at home on Sunday, while Washington enters off a hard-fought 27-20 road victory over the Rams (which seems even more impressive now after what LA put up against San Francisco on Thursday night.) So far the Raiders are 14th in the league in passing with 240 yards per contest and lead the league overall in scoring with 33.5 PPG. The defense is ranked tenth in conceding 18 PPG. QB Derek Carr has 492 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s so far this year. RB Marshawn Lynch has 121 yards and a TD thus far. Washington had 229 rushing yards against LA, while throwing just 27 passes. The Redskins got two turnovers and committed zero. So far Washington is ranked 13th in scoring with 22 points per game and 26th on the defensive side in conceding 25. QB Kirk Cousins has 419 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. Cousins is surrounded by a bunch of offensive weapons on the ground and in the receiving game. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 when playing the role of underdog. I think the Raiders finally stumble here and I expect Cousins to have his best game of the year to this point. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -119 | 117 h 25 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST). The Seahawks enter off a hard-fought 12-6 win over San Francisco, which now doesn’t seem so bad after what the 49ers put up against the Rams on Thusday night, while the Titans got the better of Jacksonville 37-16 on the road. The Hawks struggled in their opening game in Green Bay and then had to hold on for dear life against the 49ers. So far Seattle’s defense has been stout and will remain a strength of the team moving forward (13 PPG conceded thus far.) QB Russell Wilson was 23 of 49 for 198 yards and a TD last weekend. So far Wilson has struggled this season. The silver lining for the Hawks’ offense last week was that it did have 131 rushing yards. Tennessee looked poor against Oakland and great against Jacksonville. So how should we judge the Titans at this point? It’s difficult and the sample size is too small. We’ll absolutely have a much better idea where the team truly stands after this weekend though. The Seahawks are a dangerous team, one which will be getting after Titants’ QB Macus Mariota throughout. Wilson will also be looking to atone for some early lacklustre play. Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a win against a division rival, while Tennessee is 0-2 ATS in its last two in the same position. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Seahawks. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Browns v. Colts +1 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 145 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ind Colts at 1:05 ET. The Browns and Colts meet Sunday at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with both teams looking to avoid 0-3 starts to the 2017 season. The Browns fought hard in a season-opening 21-18 home loss to the Steelers but were much worse last Sunday, losing 24-10 in Baltimore to the Ravens. The Colts 'flipped that script,' getting routed 46-9 out in LA against the Rams in Week 1, before losing 16-13 in OT last Sunday at home to the Arizona Cardinals. Browns rookie QB DeShone Kizer had a solid season debut, going 20 of 30 for 222 yards with one TD and one INT (85.7 QB rating), while also adding 17 rushing yards and a TD run. However, he suffered through a 'nightmare' of a game this past Sunday, interrupted with a migraine headache in the second quarter after four ineffective series; a three-and-out, a lost fumble, an interception and a punt. Kevin Hogan replaced him and went 5 of 11 for 118 yards with one TD and one INT. Kizer said the headaches are hereditary and that he hasn't had one crop up in a game since high school. He received medication, underwent concussion protocol, and finally received clearance to return in the third quarter with Baltimore up 21-10. He would finish 15 of 31 for 182 yards without a TD pass, three INTs and a lost fumble (27.3 QB rating). Once again, the Browns are showing no signs of a running game, averaging 75.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. A silver lining is a defense that's allowed 22.5 PPG on 313.5 YPG, after allowing 28.3 PPG on 392.4 YPG last season. Luck remains sidelined and the Colts decided that Scott Tolzein was not an option, so the quickly traded for New England's Jacoby Brissett. It was anybody’s guess as to how Brissett would play because last week was his first week that he ran the first-team offense in practice. He was still wearing a wristband with the play calls on it during the games. However, all in all, he showed plenty of promise. Yes, the interception he threw in OT set up the Cards' game-winning FG but as RB Frank Gore noted, "He's going to be just fine. He played the with type of confidence where you would have never guessed he’s only been here for a little bit.” Brissett was 22 of 40 for 267 yards, zero TDs and that one 'killer' interception. After allowing 46 points against the Rams, the Colts D held the Cards to just 16 points. The Indianapolis Colts need a victory here in order to avoid their first 0-3 start since the 2011 season and the Browns could play the perfect foil. Cleveland is off a 1-15 season and enters on a 14-game road losing streak, last winning a road game back in October of 2015! I realize that Brissett has thrown 92 passes in the regular season without a TD pass but he's got an excellent target in T.Y. Hilton plus TE Doyle has 10 catches (on just 11 targets) in his first two games. As for the Colts D, if it can hold the Cards to 16 points (in OT), the struggling Browns shouldn't be much of a problem. The fact that the Colts have won SEVEN of their last eight games against the Browns, makes taking Indy even easier, as does the fact that Cleveland is just 1-20 SU in its last 21 road games! Good luck...Larry |
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09-24-17 | Broncos -3 v. Bills | 16-26 | Loss | -102 | 114 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (1:00 EST). Denver comes in with a ton of momentum after destroying the Cowboys 42-17 last week. Buffalo though has for the most part been a disaster after two weeks, barely holding on for a victory over the lowly Jets in Week 1, before suffering a 9-3 loss to Carolina last weekend (lucky in my opinion to have even covered the spread in that one.) Broncos’ QB Trevor Simien decimated the Cowboys vaunted defense for 231 passing yards and four TD’s to just one INT. RB CJ Anderson had 118 rushing yards on 25 carries. WR Demaryius Thomas had six catches for 71 yards. Both the run game and the passing game are firing on all cylinders right now for Denver. But not to be outdone, the Broncos look even better on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding the Cowboys offense to a mere 268 total yards, including RB Ezekiel Elliot to just eight yards on nine carries. Von Miller was impressive with two sacks and two tackles for a loss. Bills’ QB Tyrod Taylor was just 17 of 25 for 126 passing yards, along with 55 rushing yards in last week’s pathetic effort. RB LeSean McCoy had a paltry nine yards on 12 carries. Buffalo’s silver lining so far this year has been on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a total of just 255 total yards last week and posting six sacks on Cam Newton. But now that unit faces a white hot Broncos unit, one which I think will dominate and expose a group which has yet to be truly tested this year. I’ll point out as well that Devner is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game, while Buffalo is just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 after allowing 15 points or less in its previous contest. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, play on the Broncos. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Falcons -2.5 v. Lions | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 114 h 20 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). It’s a short week for Detroit, which beat the Giants on Monday night. Atlanta also comes in at 2-0, beating Chicago and then Green Bay (both convincingly.) Atlanta has looked impressive in the early going, not succumbing to a “hang over” after last year’s devastating Super Bowl loss. Matt Ryan and the offense, both the receivers and RB’s, look like they haven’t lost a step whatsoever. And the Falcons have also looked sharp defensively, coming out on top in two tough games to open the season. Detroit has also looked good, getting by a struggling Giants team 24-10 on Monday. QB Matt Stafford was 15 of 21 for 122 yards and two TD’s. The Lions had the early lead and turned to the run game through most of it, accumulating 138 yards. The defense looked stout as well by sacking Eli Manning five times and holding New York to 270 yards of offense. But stopping Manning and the Giants’ impotent offensive line is one thing, while slowing down the gun-slinging Matty Ice and the Falcons’ high-flying offense is quite another. I’ll point out as well that ATL is 8-2 ATS in its last ten road games, while Detroit is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven against the NFC. The Falcons did a great job of containing Rodgers, so I have a hard time seeing Stafford doing much better. Atlanta could be a much bigger fav in this spot I think. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco 49ers (8:25 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The 49ers weren’t expecting to make the playoffs this year, but at 0-3 and with a three-game road trip on deck, Thursday night essentially becomes a “must win” game for San Francisco. It’s a short week as well, which always favors the home side no matter the situation. LA looked good in beating an Andrew Luck-less Colts team, but came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-20 setback at home to the Redskins. There’s no question that the Rams look better under new coach Sean McVay, but they haven’t gotten around the corner quite yet. LA QB Jared Goff was just 15 of 24 for 224 yards and one TD, while RB Todd Gurley had 88 yards and a score in last week’s setback. In San Francisco’s 9-6 loss in Seattle QB Brian Hoyer was 15 of 27 for just 99 yards. However, RB Carlos Hyde had 124 yards on 15 carries. The big news of course was San Francisco’s defense though, which looked very good for a second straight week; make sure to keep your eyes on LB NaVorro Bowman, who had ten tackles on Sunday. I’ll point out as well that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four as a road fav of three points or less, while the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home dog of three points or less. A great oveall “situational” play which is backed by strong and relevant trends. I like the more desperate team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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