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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-06-19 | Bears v. Raiders OVER 40 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week (5) is on Chi/Oak Over at 1:00 ET. Khalil Mack will have a few incentives when he takes the field for The Chicago Bears hosted their bitter rival (the Green Bay Packers) to open NFL 2019 on a Thursday night (Sep 5) and lost 10-3. Chicago then won its Week 2 game in Denver, 16-14 by making a 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. Heading into the team's MNF Week 3 game at Washington, QB Mitchell Trubisky, the team's "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft," had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions. The Bears beat the sad-sack Redskins 31-15 in that MNF game and then their defense dominated in a 16-6 home win in Week 4 over the Vikings. Now it's off to London for 3-1 Chicago for a meeting with the 2-2 Oakland Raiders.Oakland is hoping to build off a 31-24 triumph at Indianapolis last Sunday. The Raiders ran 188 yards on the ground in the win, with rookie Josh Jacobs gaining 79 on 17 carries, as they avoided a third straight loss while playing the second of five consecutive contests away from Oakland. The Raiders will be playing in London for the second straight season and internationally for the FIFTH time in six years. Trubisky suffered a left shoulder injury during Chicago's first possession last week and is expected to miss this game. It's hard to say he'll be missed all that much. Chase Daniel will be under center after completing 22-of-30 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown vs the Vikings in relief. Daniel is a 10-year vet and will make his third start in two seasons with Chicago. He went a combined 53 of 76 (69.7%) for 515 yards with three TDs and two INTs in two starts last season (a win at Detroit and loss at the NY Giants). The Bears bring one of the NFL's best defenses to London, allowing 11.2 PPG (2nd) on 290.8 YPG (5th). Oakland's Derek Carr is completing 72.1% of his passes and has been greatly helped by Jacobs, a rookie RB from Alabama. Jacobs has 307 rushing yards this season (5.0 YPC), eclipsing the team record for most by a player in his first four career games. TE Darren Waller grabbed a share of an NFL record last week a swell, increasing his reception total to 33, tying Antonio Gates (2007) for most by a tight end in his team's first four contests of a season. Oakland's defense is another story, as the Raiders rank 25th in allowing 25.5 PPG on 390.2 YPG (alos 25th). Oakland's 31-24 win at Indy last week makes them just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS on the road since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. The 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Again, this is a neutral site game but it's also a 10:00 a.m. Pacific time start, games in which the Raiders have struggled. I expect the Bears to have little trouble scoring here plus I also think the Raiders' offense is jelling. With this tantalizingly low over/under number, the play is O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The LA Rams opened 8-0 last season on their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the NE Pats. The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but the team hardly looked as good as it did for most of the 2018 season. The Rams welcomed the Bucs to LA in Week 4 and got blasted, 55-40! Jared Goff set a career high with 517 yards passing but his two TD passes were offset by THREE interceptions and his NFL record-tying 45 completions were a telling sign of LA's one-dimensional offense. Seattle is also off to a 3-1 start in 2019 but its three victories have come against opponents with a combined 1-10-1 record, including a pair of wins by a combined three points! Rams head coach Sean McVay said after Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown split 10 carries for a combined 30 yards rushing against the Bucs that, "We never really got back into our normal down-and-distance operation, where we could be underneath the center and have some run-pass balance. I think that puts a lot of stress on the quarterback, on the offensive line." WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and has 32 catches and an NFC-best 388 yards in four games. Woods has 26 catches and Cooks has 19. The LA defense surely needs a bounce-back effort, after allowing 55 points and yards to the Bucs. Is this the same D which allowed 24.0 PPG on 358.6 YPG in 2018? Russell Wilson did not put up eye-popping stats against Arizona with 240 yards and a score in the 27-10 win, but he registered his fourth consecutive game with at least a 102.6 QB rating. Wilson is completing 72.9% on the season for 1,141 yards with eight TDs and zero INTs (118.7 QB rating). “I think he’s off to his best start ever,” head coach Pete Carroll said. "I don’t care how big the numbers are, I’m not talking about how many yards or whatever, just his play has been really, really sharp." However, Wilson has not had the luxury of the NFL's top rushing offense like he did in 2018. Seattle averaged a league-high 160.0 YPG (4.8 YPC) in 2018 but is averaging a way more modest 115.0 YPG (4.0 YPC) so far in 2019. Seattle was fortunate to eke out a one-point home win over Cincinnati in Week 1 (Bengals are currently 0-4) and then in Week 3, lost 33-27 at home to the Brees-less Saints. Seattle entered that game vs the Saints 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame (so much for that). The once-feared "Legion of Boom" defense is no more and Seattle's home field isn’t as powerful as it once was either, with the Seahawks going just 16-17-2 ATS since 2015 at Century Link Field. The Rams are are in full "bounce-back mode" after allowing 55 points in a two-TD loss at home to the Bucs and it is impossible to ignore that the Rams are 15-3 SU on the road since McVay has taken over. Rams get the 'W' and the cover. Good luck...Larry |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET. As NFL Week 4 comes to close, SEVEN teams remain winless. Two of those winless teams, long-time AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, meet tonight at Heinz Field. Both have opened 0-3, with the Bengals hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008 and the Steelers looking to avoid losing their first four games for just the SECOND time time since 1968! Neither team has been able to run the ball, with Cincy averaging 41.7 YPG on the ground (32nd) and the Steelers averaging 64.0 YPG (29th). Dalton has played fairly well for Cincy but the team's D is allowing 27.7 PPG (27th) on 406.3 YPG (28th). With Big Ben out, Pittsburgh is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) on 269.3 YPG (30th). More troubling is the fact that the once-vaunted Pittsburgh D is allowing 28.3 PPG (28th) on 442.0 YPG (31st). So where does it leaves us for this game? Dalton entered Week 4 ranked second in the league with 979 passing yards but it's hard to win when one's rushing game is averaging less than 50 YPG and is averaging only 2.4 YPC. Mason Rudolph made his first career NFL in Week 3 at San Francisco and overcame some early nerves to throw for 174 yards and a pair of second-half TDs. The Steelers actually had the ball and the lead late in the fourth quarter before James Conner's fumble set up San Francisco for the winning TD with just 1:15 left in the game, denying Rudolph his first win as an NFL starter. . Someone will be 0-4 after this game (barring a tie) and I can't see NOT playing the Steelers in this one. After all, Pittsburgh has won EIGHT straight (including a wild card win at Cincy in 2015) and 11 of its last 12 against Cincinnati. The average margin of victory in Pittsburgh's three home wins over Cincinnati in that stretch is 8.7 PPG. Considering the line, Pittsburgh deserves a top-rating of 10*s. Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* SNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Dallas Cowboys fought all off-season with RB Elliott but he signed late and Dallas entered the season with lofty aspirations. The Cowboys have opened 3-0 SU and ATS, having eclipsed 30 points in each of their three victories. QB Dak Prescott has been outstanding, completing 74.5% for 920 yards with nine TDs and two INTs. His QB rating of 128.0 is second to only Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. Elliott has 289 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) for a run game that is averaging 179.0 YPG (3rd-best in the NFL). The Cowboys will visit 2-1 New Orleans fro Sunday Night Football, with the Saints coming off an impressive 33-27 victory at Seattle behind backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was 19 of 27 for 177 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs in first 'real' start since 2015 (I'm not counting his Week 17 start in 2018, playing with "the scrubs"). Prescott's been terrific and WR Amari Cooper,has 16 catches and four TD catches. As for Elliott, he's posted back-to-back 100-yard games. However, the schedule-makers have been VERY kind to Dallas these first three weeks. Dallas hosted the defensively-challenged NY Giants (31.3 PPG on 460.3 YPG) in Week 1, won at sad-sack Washington (allowing 31.3 PPG, as well) in Week 2 and then beat pathetic Miami last week (0-3 & 0-3 ATS, scoring an NFL-low 5.3 PPG and allowing an NFL-high 44.3 PPG). With Brees sidelined following thumb surgery, New Orleans put the ball in the hands of its best offensive player and Alvin Kamara responded by rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown and catching nine passes for 92 yards a score. Teddy Bridgewater should be even better with another week of reps and expect more from top-flight WR Michael Thomas (25 receptions), who scored his first TD of the season last week. However, the Saints D has to get better. New Orleans has allowed 27 points for the third straight week and checks in allowing 27.3 PPG (26th) on 436.0 YPG (29th). It's hard to quote historical numbers for New Orleans, without Brees at QB. However, I sure love the small home underdog in this one. The Cowboys haven't been REMOTELY tested as of yet (see above for a reminder) and winning a SNF road game at this venue is a 'bridge too far.' Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos -3 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb? Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times. Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests. It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday. Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos OVER 38.5 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 117 h 13 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Den Over at 4:25 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb? Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times. Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests. It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday. Yes, I like Denver but what I like even more is the Over. I really like what I see with Minshew and as noted, Denver's D seems to still be a "work in progress." Conditions will be near-perfect in Denver and this is one of just TWO totals under 40. Getting back to Denver's great home record in September, let me add that in those 13 straight Sep home wins (before the team's Week 2 loss in 2019), the Broncos had averaged 29.2 PPG. I'm "all in" on the Over! Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-19 | Panthers v. Texans -4.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. Cam Newton is sidelined indefinitely by a Lisfranc injury in his foot, so the Carolina Panthers will give QB Kyle Allen his second straight start. The second-year player got the job done last week, going 19-of-26 for 261 yards with four touchdowns and zero interception in a 38-20 win at Arizona, Carolina’s first victory of the season. The Texans are 2-1 and just one defensive stop (and a 58-yard FG) away from being undefeated. However, in all fairness, they’re also just a couple plays away from being winless, as all three of Houston's games have been decided by seven points or less. I'm not sure the Panthers are counting on or waiting for, Cam Newton to snap out of his malaise. The bigger question right now is, can Newton even play anymore given his various injuries? Newton had zero TD throws and just five rushing attempts in two games before missing this past Sunday. As for this game, we'll see if Allen is no more than a backup QB or is he not ready for primetime. We KNOW McCaffrey is ready. He had a breakout season in 2018 (his second), rushing for 1,098 yards (5.0 YPC) with seven TDs, while catching 107 passes for 867 yards with six more TDs. After three games in 2019, he's got 318 yards rushing (5.4 YPC) and three TDs plus 15 catches for 132 yards. Houston’s offense has been inconsistent, scoring 28 points, then 13 and then 27. However, QB Deshaun Watson has been steady, completing 65.6 percent for 778 yards with six TDs and only one interception. Watson has a solid receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins (19 catches), but after the RB duo Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson (replacing the injured Lamar Smith) performed well in Weeks 1 & 2, Houston ran for just 39 yards against San Diego. The defense was torched by Drew Brees in a 30-28 Week 1 loss but has played much better the last two weeks, allowing just 32 points. Outstanding pass rushers J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus may give Allen "all he wants, and more!" Is Allen really a better 'fit' for the Panthers? That's hard to say but let's note that the Panthers come into this game just 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games. The two wins came last week at Arizona (3-13 in 2018 and 0-2-1 to open 2019) and the Saints in Week 17 of 2018, when Brees and the starters sat. Is anyone confident that Allen is up to the challenge of out-dueling Watson and a team that is 13-6 with a healthy Watson starting at QB since the beginning of last year! Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-19 | Raiders v. Colts -6 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET. The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota. Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit). Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests. The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. The Green Bay Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy late last season and gave 39-year-old Matt LaFleur his first head coaching job. So far, so good. The Packers are one of SEVEN teams to open 2019 at 3-0 (note: 136 of the 180 teams or 75.5 percent to start 3-0 have made the playoffs since 1980). The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 start in four years when they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season, check in at just 1-2, with the two loses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Here's a stat the Eagles won't like. Only one team in the Super Bowl era, the 2001 New England Patriots, started the season 1-3 and rebounded to win it all. The Eagles rallied from a 17-0 deficit in Week 1 against Washington to take a 32-20 lead. However, Washington scored with six seconds left to make it a 32-27 and a non-cover for Philly. The Eagles followed that Week 1 win with back-to-back games at Atlanta (24-20) and at home to Detroit (27-24).Head coach Doug Pederson canceled practice one day last week due to the number of injuries on the team but the receiving corps will get a boost with the return of Alshon Jeffery after he sat out Sunday's contest due to a calf strain. DeSean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal strain but Nelson Agholor has been a pretty good "fill in," with 18 catches and three TDs on the season. TE Zach Ertz has a team-high 17 receptions but has yet to find the end zone. Carson Wentz clearly needs more help from his running game, which is averaging 99.7 YPG (17th) on 3.6 YPC. The Philly pass D is a mess, surrendering 293.7 YPG (29th), with the pass rush recorded only two sacks in three games. However, who could have imagined a Rodgers-led offense ranking 28th in total yards (286.7 YPPG), including 197.2 YPG passing (27th)? That's the case though, as the Packers check in scoring only 19.3 PPG (23rd). "We've never wanted to just manage the football game around here, so the standards are very high for us," Aaron Rodgers said. "We gotta play a lot better on offense. We've played some good defenses, no doubt about it, but the standard and the expectations are very high here and we haven't met them on offense. ... At some point, we can't expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been. But at some point the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays." Defense has been the key to Green Bay's 3-0 start, holding opponents to 11.7 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL). Wentz is completing 61.0% for 803 yards with six TDs and two INTs, which isn't bad. As noted already, he's NOT getting much help from his running game plus Wentz had EIGHT of his passes dropped against the Lions, including a deep ball to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside that could've been the go-ahead score in the final minute. A week earlier, Nelson Agholor dropped what could've been a go-ahead 60-yard TD with under two minutes left in a 24-20 loss at Atlanta. Philly could be 3-0, instead of 1-2. The Packers are not just 3-0 but also 3-0 ATS but I'm not convinced the Packers are a better team than the Eagles. Matt LaFleur may be 3-0 but Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach and a 1-3 Philly start would put his team in "crisis-mode" before Oct 1. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS and Green Bay 3-0 ATS but that changes here. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the Was Redskins at 8:15 ET. The Chicago Bears' defense (17.7 PPG allowed was an NFL-best) helped them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing just 12.0 PPG but the team's offense has been absolutely pathetic, averaging 9.5 PPG to rank 31st of 32 teams! Chicago lost 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 3 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2. The Washington Redskins have opened 0-2, losing 32-27 at Philly and 31-21 at home to Dallas. Washington's defense has allowed 31.5 PPG (2nd-most in the league) on 455.0 YPG (3rd-highest total). It will be a QB 'battle' of Trubisky vs Keenum, not exactly a replay of Luckman vs Baugh in the 1940 NFL championship game (note: Bears famously won that won 73-0!). Trubisky (58.3% for 348 yards without a TD pass and one INT for a 65.0 QB rating so far in 2019) was the "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions this season. Chicago's lone TD came on a 1-yard-run by David Montgomery last week and the team is averaging only 99.5 YPG on the ground (18th). That is hardly good enough when Trubisky ranks near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards a completion. The defense is still impressive but....Washington QB Case Keenum has limited offensive 'weapons' but he's played well against two quality teams, Philly and Dallas. Keenum is completing 69.1% for 601 yards with five TDs, zero INTs and a QB rating of 111.2. Of course, the defense is a concern but Chicago's "O" may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's "stop-unit." Is it fair to call Washington's D a stop unit? Chicago is VERY lucky to be 1-1, as PK Eddie Pineiro bailed them out by making a 53-yard FB at the gun last week in Denver. Mitchell Trubisky has so far "taken a step back" in his third season and laying points on the road (no less on Monday night), seems like 'a bridge too far!' Jay Gruden's team has gone 6-2 ATS since the start of last year when his team was playing with a healthy starting QB. Keenum's healthy AND he's played very well. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Rams -3 v. Browns | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI, which has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death." The Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans but then were able to bully the New York Jets last Monday, 23-3. The Jets began the game already missing starting QB Sam Darnold and then his replacement, Trevor Simiean, went down with a season-ending injury. Mayfield threw for 325 yards with OBJ reeling in six passes for 161 yards, including an 89-yard TD. The Browns return home to host the defending NFC champs on Sunday night. The Rams are 2-0, winning 30-27 at Carolina, before beating the Saints 27-9 last Sunday at home, in what was billed as New Orleans "payback game" from last year's NFC championship game. Jared Goff is off to a modest start (62.7% & 469 yards with two TDs and one INT) and it could be a concern that he's had just one TD (or none) in NINE of his last 10 games (including last year's postseason). However, the good news is that WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and leading the team with 12 receptions for 166 yards. Fellow WRs Woods has 10 catches and Cooks has just five but he's averaging 22.6 per reception. RB Todd Gurley also seems to have put his late-season knee issues of 2018 behind him. Gurley has 160 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) plus backup Malcolm Brown has 90 yards (5.3 YPC & 2 TDs), as the Rams attempt to lessen the load on Gurley. Gurley has insisted his knee is fine and he's ready for any workload. We'll see. Mayfield had a nice game against the sad-sack and depleted Jets but threw three INTs and posted a 64.0 QB rating against the defensively solid Titans. The criticism has been that Mayfield has been guilty of holding onto the ball too long and not taking advantage of receivers being open while trying to complete long passes. Chubb is clearly a solid RB (137 yards / 3.9 YPC but not yet a star (if ever?). Of course, OBJ is a talent but with him, one never knows. The question here will be, is Mayfield up to the task of playing well against the highly-coordinated LA defense, led by defensive guru, Wade Phillips? It's said that the Rams' offense has yet to "get it together" but let me note that LA has scored 30 and 27 points the first two weeks. The Rams opened last year 8-0 (and 10-1) plus since McVay has taken over, the Rams are 14-3 SU on the road. Not much of a number to 'cover' here, so the Rams it is! Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Saints v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on NO/Sea Over at 4:25 ET. The New Orleans Saints survived Week 1 when they won 30-28 on a 58-yard FG as time expired at home against the Houston Texans. The Saints then traveled to LA in Week 2, for their big "revenge" game with the Rams. The Saints lost at home to the Rams in last year's NFC championship game, a contest made infamous when a blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime. The Saints lost 27-9 to the Rams last Sunday and adding insult to injury, future Hall-of-Fame QB Drew Brees was KO'd with a thumb injury. He's since undergone surgery and will be out for an extended period of time. The Saints are in Seattle on Sunday against the Seahawks, who have opened 2-0 for the first time since the 2013 season Teddy Bridgewater has made 29 NFL starts but Saints head coach Sean Payton has declined to reveal who will start the game, Bridgewater or second-year pro Taysom Hill. He insists both QBs will see action. "We'll have the right plan relative to what those guys are doing," Payton told reporters. "Look, these guys have been here now two seasons. It's just kind of taking a step back and looking at the things we want to do with those guys in the game and putting that plan in place this week in practice." Bridgewater completed 17-of-30 passes for 165 yards after replacing Brees in last week's loss to Rams and is looking to re-establish himself after a horrific knee injury just prior to the 2016 season cost him his starting job with Minnesota. " Seattle's Russell Wilson is off to an excellent start, completing 78.2% with five TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 134.5. However, the offensive line has allowed him to be sacked eight times in two games and the running game, which led the NFL with 160.0 YPG in 2018, is averaging just 111.5 YPG (14th) on 3e.9 YPC. Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past. Cincy's Andy Dalton ripped them for 418 passing yards (35 of 51 with two TDs and zero INTs), as the Seahawks were lucky to win, 21-20. Even with Big Ben missing half the game last Sunday at Pittsburgh, the Steelers scored 26 points. All that said, Seattle is 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame.New Orleans' defense had no answer for Houston's DeShaun Watson in Week 1 (268 yards passing with three TDs and 40 yards rushing and a fourth TD), so expect Russell Wilson (a veteran version of Watson) to have a big day. However, I believe Bridgewater is one of the better backup QBs in the league and as noted above, Seattle's defense is a mere shell of its former self. Bridgewater has had a full week of practice and Sean Payton also has offensive packages for Taysom Hill. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The Los Angeles Chargers needed OT to against the Colts in Week 1 to escape with a 30-24 win. LA is back at home on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a mistake-filled 13-10 loss at Detroit in Week 2. LA's miscues were personified by a third-quarter drive during which it had two TDs nullified and saw running back Austin Ekeler lose a fumble at the one-yard line. The Houston Texans visit The StubHub Center in Carson, Ca 1-1 as well, having lost at New Orleans 30-28 in Week 1 on a 58-yard FG as time expired but then surviving a failed two-point conversion try by the Jaguars in Houston at home in Week 2, eking out a 13-12 victory. Houston QB Deshaun Watson was terrific in Week 1 at New Orleans, passing for 268 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT and 114.3 QB rating) plus rushing for 40 yards and a fourth TD. However, as the Texans have seen too often, he passed for just 159 yards against Jacksonville (0 TDs, 0 INTs and a 70.9 rating), while rushing for just FIVE yards. The Texans were thought to be in big trouble when RB Lamar Smith was lost in the preseason but Hyde (173 yards / 5.8 YPC) and Johnson (88 yards / 5.9 YPC) have surprised, with Houston averaging 153.0 YPG on the ground (5th), on 5.8 YPC. One would think the team's solid running game would be a HUGE plus for Watson but the Texans have yet to shore up their NFL-worst pass protection. Watson has been sacked 10 times in the season's first two weeks. Philip Rivers (the 4th pick of the 2004 draft) will make his 209th consecutive start on Sunday, tying him with Eli Manning for the second-longest QB starting streak in NFL history. It's ironic that it comes in a week in which Manning, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft, was benched by the Giants for rookie Daniel Jones. Another alum from that 2004 draft, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (the No. 11 overall selection), will miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury suffered last week against Seattle. Meanwhile, Rivers just keeps chugging along. He's topped 4,000 passing in 10 of his last 11 seasons, throwing between 26 and 34 TD passes per year in that stretch plus has posted QB ratings of over 100 in FIVE of the 11. He's got a 377-to-180 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, after throwing 60 TDs with just 22 INTs the last two seasons. The Chargers were also expected to have running game issues with Melvin Gordon's holdout but Austin Ekeler has 287 yards from scrimmage (124 rushing, 163 receiving) and Justin Jackson is averaging an amazing 8.9 YPC while adding 116 yards rushing. The small MLS venue in Carson (30,000 capacity) has never provided the Chargers with much of a home edge since the move from San Diego (6-10-1 ATS) but LA's top pass-rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be huge difference-makers in this one, as Watson has been sacked at least FOUR times in EIGHT straight games. The Chargers had 424 yards at Detroit last Sunday but scored just 10 points, as two TDs were nullified by penalties (9 penalties in all for 70 yards). Throw in two TOs (one at the Lions' one-yard line) plus two missed FGs and you can see why. DO NOT expect a repeat performance. Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Giants +6.5 v. Bucs | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET. The 0-2 NY Giants head to Tampa to take on the 1-1 Bucs this Sunday but Eli Manning will NOT be the Giants staring QB come kickoff. Manning, a two-time Super Bowl MVP, has been New York's starting QB since the 10th game of 2004, Manning's rookie season.He has started all but ONE game for the Giants since the start of the 2005 season but is 8-25 over the past three years.Sure, there's plenty of blame to go around but it's understandable that the Giants are making a change at the NFL's most important position. Daniel Jones was drafted in the first round with the sixth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. He'll square off against Jameis Winston, who was drafted as the first overall pick by the Buccaneers in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Giants are averaging 420.0 YPG (6th) but have not turned those yards into points, averaging only 15.5 PPG (27th). The first order of business for the 6-5 rookie from Duke will be to do just that.Jones completed 29-of-34 passes for 416 yards and two touchdowns during some impressive preseason play. He has one of the NFL's most versatile RBs in the NFL to help out, as Saquon Barkley ranks second in the NFL with 227 rushing yards and owns an eye-popping 7.8 yards per attempt. TE Evan Engram was Eli's top target (17 catches / 1 TD) but it's great news that WR Sterling Shepard (190 catches his first three seasons with 14 TDs) has cleared the concussion protocol over the course of this week and avoided an injury designation on Friday. Bruce Arians is a highly-respected head coach and it will be interesting to see if he can "fix" Jameis Winston. Winston was awful in a Week 1 home loss to the 49ers (194 passing yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs and a QB rating of 45.4). Two of his INTs were returned for TDs! That said, in Week 2 at Carolina (a 20-13 Bucs win), he played a mistake-free game with 208 yards, one TD and zero INTs, for a QB rating of 103.4). However, Winston's consistency is his inconsistency. He can be a turnover 'machine.' He's not getting much help from Tampa's running game so far in 2019, which is averaging 111.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC. Here's the bottom line. Winston's inconsistency has made the Bucs a very poor home favorite during Winston's tenure, checking in at 6-12 ATS since 2015. The Giants have won FOUR of the last five meetings in the regular season against Tampa Bay, including a 38-35 triumph at home last year in which Barkley ran for 142 yards and scored three times. Yes, the Giants went 8-24 SU in 2017 and 2018 but note that after losing and failing to cover at Dallas in Week 1 of 2018, the Giants finished the season with SEVEN straight covers as a road dog, before opening 2019 at Dallas in Week 1 of 2019 with a 35-17 loss (as a 7-point dog). Digging a little deeper, let me point out that since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog, with THREE of those ATS losses coming at Dallas. Eliminate the hated-Cowboys and the Giants are 11-2 ATS as road dogs against the rest of the league. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts -1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn denies he's on the "hot seat" in Atlanta but I'm pretty sure he's mighty glad that Matt Ryan drove the Falcons 75yards in just over a minute to what turned out to be the game-winning TD with 2:10 left in last Sunday night's game vs the Eagles. The Falcons avoided an 0-2 start but now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts and if history is any guide, winning will not come easy.The Falcons have won just TWICE (in 16 meetings) in a series that began back in Atlanta's expansion year of 1966. That may not be all that relevant but I'll add some current trends later, that are. The Colts have opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returns to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Aug 24, when fans booed as Andrew Luck left the field before announcing his retirement (real classy move!). Atlanta's once-feared offense is averaging a modest 18.0 PPG (23rd) and QB Ryan, who had just SEVEN interceptions all of 2018 (608 attempts), already has FIVE after two games (89 attempts),including TWO in the red zone. Atlanta's rushing game is adding just 65.0 YPG (28th), as Devonta Freeman has run for only 41 yards (2.2 YPC) in two games, with no run longer than nine. Atlanta's rush D was gashed on the road by the Vikings in Week 1 (172 yards), in game Atlanta trailed 28-0 into the fourth quarter (final was 28-12). The Falcons are allowing 24.0 PPG (23rd) after two games. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts, who could easily be 2-0 to start 2019. OK, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew luck, throwing for just 336 yards after two games. However, he's completing 69.1% and has five TD passes and just one INT. The big news in Indy is the strength of the team's OL and its running game. Marlon Mack ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 225 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and the Colts are tied with the Vikings as the NFL's second-best rushing team (185.0 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Indy's D is so-so but Atlanta lacks a running game and Ryan has always been a much better QB at home, than on the road. Indy, like the Vikings, should be able to control the tempo of the game by running and as noted, Brissett has been a playmaker. I could point to the fact that the Falcons are on a 1-8 ATS run as a road underdog but since the Colts are barely favored, I'll rely more on the fact the the Falcons are a 'money-burning' 4-13 ATS (that's a 76% "go-against") on the road since the start of the 2017 season. I was "all over" the Vikings against the Falcons in Week 1 and then had Atlanta in its SNF win in Week 2. I make it THREE in a row with Atlanta games this season by taking the Colts in Week 3. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* AFC South Game of the Month is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Tennessee Titans to TIAA Bank Field for an AFC South showdown on Thursday night with the NFL Network carrying the game. It's hard to believe that it was only January of 2018 when the Jags led the Pats by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. We all know the Pats scored a pair of TDs in that 4th quarter to win 24-20 and in effect, the Jags have imploded since. Jacksonville did open the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but the Jags would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons. They shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1 but missed a great opportunity to open 2-0 by losing 19-17 at home to the Colts when their offense generated only 242 yards. Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RB Derrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. Tennessee's pass D ranks second in the NFL (182.5 YPG) and the team's 16.0 PPG allowed ranks 6th. Minshew and the struggling Jacksonville offense will have its work cut out. Mariota has passed for a modest 402 yards but he has four TDPs and zero INTs in 52 attempts (112.8 QB rating). Rookie WR Brown is averaging 20.8 YPC on his six catches plus now-healthy TE Walker has nine catches and two TDs. RB Henry has 165 yards (4.9 YPC) and two TDs. The Titans have won each of the last four meetings with the Jags, holding them to just 10.3 PPG. With a visit to Atlanta coming up in Week 4, the Titans NEED this one. Expect them to get it. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles fell behind the Redskins 17-0 in Week 1 at home in the early 2nd quarter and trailed 20-7 at the half. However, Philly scored the game's next 25 points, before Washington was able to add a "concession TD" with six seconds left for the 'cover!' Philly visits Atlanta for Week 2's Sunday Night Football contest, as the Falcons look to avert an 0-2 start for the first time since 2007. Atlanta was steamrolled at Minnesota last Sunday, falling behind 28-0. Matt Ryan was intercepted twice and sacked four times to put the Falcons in a sizable hole. He did throw two, 4th-quarter TD passes in the 28-12 loss. Philly QB Carson Wentz looked to be in mid-season form, throwing for 313 yards and three TDs. DeSean Jackson caught two of those TDs, among his eight catches for 154 yards. Philly may have the deepest set of RBs in the league, with off-season acquisition Jordan Howard (over 3,300 rushing yards the L3 years with the Bears) joining veteran Darren Sproles and Penn St rookie Miles Sander. However, the Eagles finished 30th against the pass last season and showed no signs of improvement in Week 1, as Washington's Case Keenum threw for 380 yards against a suspect secondary that didn't get much help from the pass rush. Atlanta had problems with both its offensive and defensive lines at Minnesota. The Falcons OL allowed 42 sacks and 108 QB hits in 2018 (gave up four sacks vs Minnesota) plus the DL gave up 172 rushing yards and three TDs vs the Vikes. Ryan has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 16 consecutive contests and with WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley he has talented targets. Then there is TE Austin Hooper, who reeled in a team-leading nine catches in Week 1. The Falcons have lost to the Eagles each of the last three seasons, averaging just 12.3 points in those games. However, all three of the games were in Philadelphia and the last two times the Falcons were near the goal line with multiple chances to win. The Eagles have given up an average of eight more points and 66 more yards per game on the road that at home during the past three years, while Matt Ryan had an 118.0 QB rating at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, compared to 99.7 on the road last season. Dan Quinn has brushed off any suggestion that he's starting to feel some heat but he has now lost 11 of his last 18 games going back to the playoffs at the end of the 2017 season. I doubt Quinn and Atlanta will ever 'live down' squandering a 28-3 lead to New England in the Super Bowl but Atlanta NEEDS this one and it's only a Week 2 game. I'm taking the home team. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. It may be nearly nine months ago since the Saints were done in by one of the more controversial no-calls in NFL playoff history but it seems like "just yesterday" to New Orleans and its fans. The blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees and it is still being discussed. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in last year's NFC Championship Game. It sent the Rams, not the Saints, to the Super Bowl. The non-call also prompted the NFL to change its replay review rules in the off-season, although many Saints fans still haven't stopped complaining about it. The two teams square off in Week 2, with both coming off close Week 1 wins. Drew Brees passed for 370 yards and two TDs but needed to lead a last-gasp drive that led to the Saints' game-winning, 58-yard FG with 0:00 time left (30-28). The Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead at Carolina last Sunday but needed to hang on for a 30-27 victory. RB Alvin Kamara will be the Saints featured back in 2019 (with Ingram gone) and he ran for 97 yards and had 72 receiving yards in Week 1, giving every indication he's up to the task. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas was Brees' top target with 10 catches for 123 yards. Jared Goff wasn’t all that sharp in LA's 30-27 win at Carolina (23-39 186 yards with one TD and one iNT), after just signing a huge contract. However, some good news was Woods hauling in eight passes and Kupp catching seven balls. As for RB Todd Gurley, concerns about his apparently balky knee looked fairly unfounded in the Rams' opener, as he rushed for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) and looked dangerous. Teammate Brooks ran for 53 yards and scored two TDs. I get the feeling "most" will be on the Saints in this one and the week-long line move seems to bear that out. However, the Rams averaged 37.3 PPG at home last season and one should NOT ignore the Saints' "close call" in Week 1, as it has become a pattern. Going back to the start of the 2014 season, the Saints enter this contest 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS (that's 91% "go-against") in the first two games of the season these past five-plus years. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott got the Buffalo head coaching job in 2017 and ended a 17-year postseason drought for the franchise by going 10-6 in his first season to earn a wild card berth. However, the Bills regressed in 2018, going 6-10. Buffalo surprised most by going 4-0 in the 2019 preseason and then the Bills beat the Jets 17-16 at MetLife Stadium in Week 1. Buffalo allowed the first 16 points in its season opener before rallying in the second half to earn the one-point victory.Josh Allen orchestrated a pair of TD drives in the fourth quarter, scoring on a 3-yard scramble to get the Bills within 16-10, before connecting with John Brown for a 38-yard TD with three minutes remaining. Allen's late heroics helped atone for his earlier play, as he became the first NFL quarterback to commit four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles) in a victory since 2013. The Bills return to MetLife Stadium looking for their first 2-0 start since 2014 to take on the Giants, who are trying to avoid a sixth 0-2 start since 2013. The Giants, like the Bills, delivered a 4-0 preseason. However, they were not up to the challenge of slowing down Dallas QB Dak Prescott in Week 1, as he threw for 405 yards and four TDs (zero INTs). Dallas jumped out early against the Giants and led 35-10 into the fourth quarter, with the Giants scoring with just over two minutes left in the game for the 35-17 final. Which Josh Allen will we see on Sunday? The one who played so poorly for most of the game, or that one which led the 4th-quarter comeback. As for the Giants, Eli threw for 306 yards (1 TD / 0 INTS) plus Barkley added 120 yards rushing (10.9 YPC), but the Giants trailed by 25 points as the 2-minute warning approached. Buffalo as a road favorite? The Bills have been favored on the road just EIGHT times over their last 50 games, going 2-6 ATS in those rare occurrences .Daniel Jones is 'looking over Eli's shoulder' (and the fans are likely behind tat move) but I'm betting the vet can earn a win here against an improving but "not there just yet" Buffalo team. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -4 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers did not play well in Week 1 but at the least the Seahawks picked up a win.Seattle escaped with a 21-20 home win over teh Bengals, despite getting nearly doubled up in yardage (429-233) and allowing the Bengals to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Russell Wilson was 14-of-20 for 196 yards and two scores in the opener (no INTs) but Seattle was able to run for just 72 yards (2.9 YPG), after leading the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 160.0 YPG. The offense gained only 232 yards with 12 FDs. Seattle's defense allowed 429 yards (22 FDs), as Andy Dalton completed 68.7 percent for 418 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Seattle's "rough outing" was a 'walk in the park' compared to what Pittsburgh experienced last Sunday night in Foxborough. The Pats opened a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 33-3 win. New England outgained Pittsburgh 465-308, as Brady passed for 341 yards and three TDs. Big Ben threw 47 times, completing 27 for 276 yards and never got the Steelers into the end zone. The Pittsburgh running game gained just 32 yards on 2.5 YPG. Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger engaged in a high-octane shootout the last time they shared the field, with Wilson passing for 345 yards and five TDs in a 39-30 home win. Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards but just one score. However, that was back in 2015. Here's what matters in this Week 2 meeting in 2019. The Steelers are 8-1 SU after losses by at least 20 points during Roethlisberger's 15-plus years in the league, while the Seahawks have made a habit of starting slow the last four-plus seasons. Seattle is now 3-6 SU the first two weeks of the season since the start of 2015, while going 0-8-1 ATS. That's a 100% "go-against!" Pittsburgh puts last Sunday night's debacle behind it with a CONVINCING win! Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-19 | Jaguars v. Texans OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Hou Over at 1:00 ET. The Houston Texans led the Saints 14-3 at the half on Monday night but found themselves down 27-21 with 50 seconds left in the game, after a New Orleans FG. However, they then went 75 yards in two plays to take the lead with 37 seconds left, only to lose on a 58-yard FG with 0:00 remaining on the clock. Houston doesn't want to hear anything about "moral" victories. The Jags opened their 2019 season, after an 0-4 preseason, at home against the high-powered KC Chiefs and their dynamic QB, Pat Mahomes. The Jacksonville D never came close to containing KC, as the Chiefs scored 40 points on 491 yards in the 14-point win. Mahomes passed for 378 yards with three TDs, all to WR Sammy Watkins (9 for 198). Nick Foles, who signed a four-year, $88 million contract in March, broke his left clavicle in the first quarter and had surgery Monday (he is out until at least Week 11).However, rookie QB Gardner Minshew replaced Foles and impressed in his NFL debut. The Jags visit their AFC rivals Sunday in Houston and in speaking about Minshew, head coach Doug Marrone told reporters, “He’s one of the few guys I’ve been around who can go from the classroom and really take it right onto the field. The other day was an unbelievable indication of that. I don’t know how many people – especially rookies – can go out not having done anything during the week and play like that.” Minshew completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs (both in the 4th quarter) and an interception in the 40-26 loss. The Watson (268 yards and three TDs) to Watkins connection was in mid-season form plus with Lamar Smith out for the season, the newly constructed backfield tandem also got the job done last week. Carlos Hyde rushed for 83 yards just nine days after being acquired from Kansas City and Duke Johnson recorded 90 yards from scrimmage in his debut for the Texans. However, the defense surrendered 510 total yards to the Saints and had a hard time getting pressure in the backfield, recording just one sack and no tackles for loss. Both defense got 'lit up' last week and what changes, here? The Texans won the AFC South last season at 11-5 and with Luck retired, are favored to win it again in 2019. An 0-2 start would be a 'killer.' That said, Houston's defense is a real question mark. Minshew is bouyed by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette ( but YPC) and the receiving corps showed off its newfound depth against the Chiefs. SIX players caught four or more passes for the Jags last Sunday, with Conley catching six (97 yards and one TD) and Chalk (four catches for 146 yards, that 36.5 per and a score). This one should be 'OVER' by the time the game reaches the fourth quarter! Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 10:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 & 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12 The Raiders went 3-1 in the preseason but the month of August was dominated by disgruntled wide receiver Antonio Brown. It appeared that the Raiders were going to suspend Brown before he delivered an emotional apology to teammates Friday, when the club changed course and said he would play Monday. However, Brown posted "release me" Saturday on Instagram and Oakland complied after an tumultuous training camp and a heated exchange with 1st-year GM Mike Mayock. The Raiders released Brown two days prior to tonight's season opener. To add "insult to injury," Brown immediately signed with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. That's the back story. Here in 2019, the Broncos and Raiders are expected to battle for 3rd 7 4th-place in the division (Chiefs are the clear favorite with the Chargers a legitimate threat and strong wild card contender). Joe Flacco is Denver's latest starting QB and I have NO faith he's got much of anything left. He burst on the scene to lead the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his 1st five years and in 2012, led Baltimore to the championship. Flacco had a "Montana-like" postseason in 2012, passing for 1,140 yards in four wins with 11 TD & 0 INTs (117.2 QB rating). His timing was just right, as on March 4, 2013, he became the highest-paid QB in NFL history when he signed a six-year contract worth $120.6 million (that has long-since be surpassed). However, after posting a 54-26 record as a starter through his first five seasons Flacco was just 42-41 as a starter the L6 seasons. A hip injury during a Wk 9 loss in 2018 saw Flacco replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson, who led the Ravens to a 6-1 finish. In February 2019, the Ravens agreed to trade Flacco to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 4th-round pick in the 2014 draft. BTW... Jackson threw for 324 yards & 5TD passes in Baltimore's 59-10 Week 1 win. Without Brown, Tyrell Williams will likely emerge as the marquee WR for Oakland, as he makes his club debut after catching 153 passes and scoring 16 TDs over the last three seasons with the Chargers. Oakland selected running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th overall pick and hope the former Alabama star can improve a ground game that was 25th in the league in each of the last two seasons, while taking pressure off QB Derek Carr.The Raiders made protecting Carr a bigger priority this season after he was sacked a career-worst 51 times last year. Let's not be too quick to forget. Carr barely missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 (3,900-plus) and featured a 60-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite getting sacked 51 times in 2018, he threw for 4,049 yards with 19 TDs and just 10 INTs in 553 attempts! You may read the following and get nervous. Denver owns the league's highest Week 1 winning percentage at .672 (39-19-1) and has won seven straight season openers, which is the NFL's longest active streak. Then again, how about this for some current trends?The Broncos are just 5-13 ATS during their past 18 away matchups and have failing to cover in EIGHT of their last 10 division games. Better yet, let's note that he home team has won the last SIX meetings in the series and Oakland comes in as a home dog! I love Carr over Flacco in this matchup. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The New England Patriots have won six world championships over the past 18 seasons behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (Belichick may deserve some credit here, as well) and will begin their bid for a FOURTH consecutive Super Bowl appearance (only team to have done that is the Bills) against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons, tying the San Francisco f49ers for the most in NFL history. The Steelers are a fitting Week 1 opponent for the Pats, as Pittsburgh is the only other franchise to win six Super Bowls and happens to be the last team to beat the Pats, winning 17-10 in Week 15 of last year at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger begins his 16th NFL season, after throwing for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. However, WR Antonio Brown, who surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 yards in each of the last SIX seasons is now playing for Oakland (I think?) and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the NFL's most-versatile RB, is now playing for the Jets, after sitting out all of last year. The good news is that wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he is capable of a No. 1 role by catching 111 passes and scoring seven times in 2018, while James Conner stepped in for Bell and rushed for 973 yards and 12 scores while gathering in 55 receptions and a TD in 2018. Brady will surely miss Gronk but the 42-year-old showed few signs of slowing down in 2018, throwing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns despite playing with a patchwork crew of WRs (that's not exactly new). Julian Edelman captured Most Valuable Player honors in Super Bowl LIII with 10 receptions for 141 yards plus RB Sony Michel rushed for 930 yards and six scores as a rookie, while backfield mate James White led the team with 87 catches. There have been naysayers recently with some of New England's defensive play but the unit held the Rams (32.9 PPG in the regular season) to just THREE points in the Super Bowl win. The Steelers 17-10 win as 2 1/2-point home underdogs in Week 15 was the the team's first victory against New England since 2011. Brady has never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium (5-0), as Big Ben’s only career win at Gillette Stadium came when Tom Brady was sidelined in 2008. Brady owns a 13-3 record in Week 1, completing nearly 70-percent of his passes while throwing for 34 TDs against just 10 interceptions. The Steelers were 6-0 as an underdog in 2018 but how does one ignore that the Pats enters this contest with a 39-16-2 ATS mark (71.0%) their last 57 home games. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-19 | Bengals v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Cin/Sea Over at 4:05 ET. Zac Taylor, the newest member of the NFL's under-40 coaching fraternity,has replaced Marvin Lewis (16 seasons) as head coach at Cincinnati. The 36-year-old takes his Bengals to Seattle for a Week 1 contest with the Seahawks on Sunday. The Seahawks feature the new highest-paid player in the NFL in QB Russell Wilson, the highest-paid inside linebacker in the league in All-Pro Bobby Wagner plus just added a prime asset to their defense with the recent acquisition of pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney. Lewis led the Benglas to seven postseasons, including FIVE straight from 2011-15, but NEVER won a single playoff game. After three straight losing seasons from 2016-18, Lewis was finally let go. Pete Carroll begins his 10th season as Seattle's head coach and he's taken the Seahawks to SEVEN postseason in nine years, including back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014. Seattle won it all in 2013 and then in 2014, Carroll made one of the most infamous of all Super Bowl play-calls, as the Seahawks fell to the Pats. That said, while the Bengals are hardly considered playoff material in 2019, the Seahawks are expected to be a contender in the NFC. QB Andy Dalton has seven 3,000-yard seasons in his career but is facing criticism at age 31 on whether he is the long-term solution under the new coaching regime. However, Taylor has publicly praised him and the fact remains that Cincy has skill position talent even without injured wide-out A.J. Green.It should be noted that Bengals opened lat season 5-3, before an injury-decimated team finished by losing SEVEN of its last eight games. Russell Wilson is primed for a big year, as in 2018, he joined Peyton Manning as the only QBs in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs in each of their first SEVEN seasons. What's more, the Seahawks had the top rushing offense in the NFL in 2018, averaging 160.0 YPG. Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs) and Marshawn has been long forgotten. On the other side of the ball, Clowney's addition late in training camp displayed the urgency Seattle felt at improving a defense that has slipped in recent seasons and allowed 353.3 YPG last season, ranking 16th of 32 teams (quite a drop-off from "The Legion of Boom" days). Seattle is 14-0 in home games in September over the last nine seasons and averaged 28.5 PPG at home in 2018. However, as noted above, the team's D is not what it used to be. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of seven or more points during the last two seasons and I believe the Bengals just may give Seattle some trouble here.I fully expect Wilson (and his new and improved running game) to match or exceed its home scoring average from last year but I also expect Dalton and Co. to move the ball as well. O-V-E-R is the way to go! Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-19 | Titans +6 v. Browns | 43-13 | Win | 100 | 65 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Cleveland Browns had a promising finish last year, winning FIVE of their last seven to end the season at 7-8-1. That's pretty rarefied air considering te team was 0-16, 1-15 and 3-13 the previous two seasons. That promising finish coupled with a strong off-season have expectations are running high in Cleveland. QB Baker Mayfield is trying to follow up an excellent rookie campaign (63.8% / 3,725 yards / 27-14 ratio). Star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. joined the team in the off-season and join fellow WR Jarvis Landry (81 catches). RB Nick Chubb (996 yards / 5.2 YPC / 8 TDs) expects to top 1,000 yards in 2019.The Titans are a solid team in the AFC South, the most competitive and strongest division in the AFC. The Titans have won nine games in each of the last three years and the hope is that this is the year QB Marcus Mariota stays healthy (he's yet to play all 16 games). Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RBDerrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games. The Browns haven’t been ranked inside the top-20 in offensive points scored since 2007 but that should change in 2019. However, the Browns gave up the third-most yards per game last year (393.0 YPG), while ranking 28th in run defense (135.2 YPG). I think expectations are running WAY too high on the Browns. Is Mayfield really that good? He struggled against the better defensive teams he played against last season and the Titans will bring their "D" to Cleveland. Here's something I will NOT ignore. Cleveland is 5-14-2 ATS in its last 21 games in Week 1 and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 home games. As for the Titans, they have covered 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog of at least three points, while Browns have failed to cover EIGHT of their last 11 games as a favorite of at least three points. Finally, the Browns last won a Week 1 game back in 2004, losing 13 in a row before playing a 21-21 tie in 2018. At this pointspread, the Browns would have been 0-14 ATS in those games. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings -4 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 37 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Sep Game of the Month is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and the Vikings square off in a Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.on Sunday afternoon.The Falcons ended a 12-game preseason losing streak on Aug 30 witha 31-12 win at Jacksonville (Jags finished 0-4). The Vikings lost their final preseason game but had won and covered their first three. That's nothing new, as Mike Zimmer is 19-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in preseason plays since taking over as Minnesota's head coach. Atlanta's Dan Quinn enters his fifth season as Atlanta's head coach but one wonders if he and his team will ever be able to overcome the devastating loss in the Super Bowl to the Pats following the 2016 season (blew a 28-3 lead!). Zimmer begins his sixth year at Minnesota (47-32-1 record). The Vikes' best season under Zimmer was in 2017 (13-3), when they lost the NFC championship game at Philly. Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been able to replicate what it did in the 2016 season when Matt Ryan (4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio) was the NFL's MVP and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl (Falcons were the NFL's highest-scoring team at 33.8 PPG).The Falcons averaged just 22.1 PPG in 2017 and while they improved slightly last season (26.8), they finished 7-9. The Falcons’ defense was 27th in yards per play allowed amid serious injuries to some of the team’s most important players in 2018. In fact, the defense has ranked no better than 20th in three out of four years under head coach Dan Quinn. In Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have an excellent group of playmakers. The offensive line is expected to be much better than it was in 2018, when it had trouble giving Kirk Cousins much time in the pocket. Cousins' difficulties against good teams have been well-documented but I'm not sure the Falcons will be a "good team" in 2019. The Vikings went 8-1-1 SU last season against teams that finished the year with fewer than 10 wins and own an 18-2-1 record against such teams over the last two seasons. Atlanta has covered the spread just ONCE in its last six games against Minnesota and checks in 4-12 ATS since 2017 on the regular season road (75% "go-against"). Minnesota is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and Zimmer is 4-1 in season-openers plus checks in 9-3 ATS his last 12 September games. Good luck...Larry |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2.5 v. Rams | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 76 h 30 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (6:30 EST). With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers all agree that these teams are very evenly matched. Honestly it wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either to this one. New England of course is the most storied franchise in the recent history of the NFL. This is Pats’ QB Tom Brady’s ninth Super Bowl. Brady is looking for a record breaking sixth championship win and I believe his veteran poise in this big game will “win the day.” As I stated off the top, clearly it wouldn’t be difficult to write a great argument on why the Rams should win this game. The combination of Jared Goff and Todd Gurley is a formidable one. Goff and the Rams dispatched the Saints 26-23 in OT in New Orleans two weeks ago, avenging an earlier loss in which they were torched for 45 points. Plenty of controversy surrounded the Rams victory of course and while that’s now in the past, I think LA will have its hands full again with the veteran Brady. Brady and company looked sharp in their 37-31 win in Kansas City. Pats’ RB Sony Michel had 113 yards on 29 carries, while WR Julian Edelman led the way with seven catches for 96 yards. The Pats’ looked extremely sharp defensively last week I thought though, although the score may not have completely reflected that, as note the unit held Chiefs’ dynamic QB Patrick Mahomes to just 16 of 31 passes, while also sacking him four times (Mahomes finished the regular season with 50 passing TDs). I like Brady. I like New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Bill Bellichick over their younger and less experienced counterparts. He’s not my favorite player, but wagering on the Super Bowl has nothing to do with who you personally “like.” Brady is a man on a mission and I look for him to put on a vintage performance here. Play on New England. Good luck…Larry |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 56 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -103 | 76 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on the over (6:30 EST). Two teams which revolve around their offensive units collide in the Super Bowl this year. Each team’s defense was decent this season, but clearly each side will be expecting the offense to carry the load and win the day in the end. So with that in mind, I’m definitely expecting a more wide-open affair in Atlanta this Sunday. Tom Brady may never get another shot at winning a record breaking sixth Super Bowl, so it’s essentially now or never for the living legend. The Rams played very little defense this year, but instead relied on their dynamic offense as well, centred around QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley. Brady has less weapons surrounding him perhaps than ever before, but it still didn’t stop him from beating the Chiefs 37-31 on the road last Sunday (and for a second time this season.) Pats’ RB Sony Michel was a bright spot as well in the victory with 113 yards on 29 carries. In fact five different Patriots caught at least four passes, with Julian Edelman leading the way with seven receptions for 80 yards. The Rams could obviously care less about Brady’s legacy. They didn’t care too much about veteran Drew Brees’ legacy last weekend after their controversial 26-23 OT win over the Saints. LA had been torched for 45 points by the Saints in the first meeting between the teams (a Rams loss), and while the defense looked better last week, I still think they’ll have their hands full with Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels. Are ATS stats relevant at this point of the season and in this situation? Perhaps not, but I still think it’s interesting to note that NE has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last eight playoff games, while St. Louis has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six when playing with two or more weeks of rest. As stated off the top, I’m expecting a wide open affair. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 56 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Championship Game Sunday O/U Play is on NE/KC Under at 6:40 ET. A storm front is moving through Kansas City and it’s been reported that this could be the coldest game in Chiefs history. Since the news of the storm, this total has been steadily dropping. Regardless, for a number of different reasons I think the correct call will be on the “under” when it comes to the total, as I look for each to try and establish the run from start to finish while on offense. The Chiefs’ much maligned defense looked fantastic in last week’s 31-13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs front-seven limited the Colt to just 87 yards rushing and the Colts to only 263 total yards. The red-hot Andrew Luck had only 203 yards passing and Indy's lone offensive TD came with 5 1/2-minutes left in the game. KC's low-ranked pass defense (31st of 32 teams) has also displayed noticeable growth in the last two games, thanks to the fast-maturing duo of DB duo of Chavarius Ward (acquired in a preseason trade with the Cowboys) and rookie Jordan Lucas (picked up from Miami Dolphins). QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw a TD pass for only the second time this season (he had 50 during the regular season) but Kansas City held the ball for nearly 40 minutes in the win over the Colts, as RB Damien Williams rushed for 129 yards and a score on 25 carries (who needs Hunt?). New England is in its 8th straight AFC Title game following its dominating 41-28 home victory over the L.A. Chargers in the Divisional Round. Patriots scored TDs on their first 4 possessions with Tom Brady in top form. The Pats beat the Chiefs 43-40 at home in a Week 6 SNF contest but I believe the last thing that Brady and Bill Belichick will want to do in this one is turn it into a “shootout.” The overall conditions of this one point to more of a “chess match.” The New England attack wasn’t so special away from home this year, with the Pats going just 3-5 SU, averaging only 3.9 YPC on the ground, while scoring just four rushing TDs. Three of the team's five road losses came by double digits This "Under" play is about more than just the weather. I’ll point out as well that New England has seen the total go under the number in 17 of its last 24 on the road, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 19 of its last 27 as a home favorite. Good luck…Larry |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -125 | 104 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* signature 35-Club Play is on the NO Saints at 3:05 ET. The Rams opened the 2018 season 8-0, finishing at 13-3 but after a 3-0 ATS start to the season, would go just 2-8-1 ATS before season-ending wins and covers over the hapless Cardinals and 49ers. The Saints opened the season with back-to-back home games (as 10-point favorites) against the Bucs and Browns. New Orleans lost outright to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and almost started 0-2, before eking out a 21-18 victory over Cleveland. However, that Week 2 win was the start of a 10-game winning streak in which the Saints covered NINE in a row. A 13-10 loss at Dallas ended the streak in Week 13. The Saints then won three in a row, before sitting out their regulars in a Week 17 loss, to finish 13-3 (like the Rams). However, The Saints' 45-35 win over the Rams in Week 9 not only ended LA's eight-game winning streak to open the season but it earned the Saints the all-important tiebreaker, which in the end became the determining factor for allowing the Saints to host the Rams in this NFC championship game. The Rams advanced to this game by rushing for 273 yards against Cowboys in a 30-22 win. Todd Gurley II, apparently beyond nagging injuries that limited his contributions (and kept him sidelined) in December, had 115 rushing yards and C.J. Anderson, a 1000-yard rusher in Denver last year, had 123. The team's ball-control offense gave cover to QB Goff, who threw for just 186 yards and zero TDs. I don't see the Rams being able to like that against the Saints (New Orleans ranks second in YPG allowed rushing at 80.2 per and held the Rams to 92 yards rushing in Week 9), so Goff will need to out-play Brees (not likely). Goff may have thrown 32 TD passes this season but he has only five TDPs in the last five games (including the postseason), with FOUR of them coming against the out-manned 49ers in the regular-season finale. The Saints were rusty (regulars didn't play in Week 17) last week vs Philly and fell behind 14-0. However, Brees led te team back and the New Orleans D completely shut down Nick Foles and the Philly offense after teh first quarter. Philly gained 151 yards on their two first-quarter TD drives but were held to 99 yards the rest of the game! Remember when the Saints couldn't play defense? No more! Brees started slowly but wound up with 3-0101 yards and two TDs (one INT). New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4) and WR Thomas had 12 catches for 171 yards with one TD (note: he also had 12 catches in that Week 9 win over LA, setting a franchise-record 211 yards). As for teh running game, New Orleans ran for 137 yards (4.4 YPC). The home-field edge MATTERS this time of year, as in each of the last five seasons, the team with home field advantage in both the NFC and AFC championship games advanced to the Super Bowl. The Saints have won their last seven home playoff games, with SIX coming under the watch of Brees and Payton. Enough said. Good luck...Larry |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -108 | 124 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 1:05 ET. I had a play on the Chargers last week, part of my perfect 4-0 Wildcard Weekend. In my analysis, I explained how I felt that the home field advantage in the Wildcard Round was much less important than in the Divisional Round. Philip Rivers and the Bolts would then go on to unequivocally prove that that was in fact true. No one could benefit more from a week off from action than Patriots’ QB Tom Brady, who once again led his team to a division title. Brady and the Pats continue to defy the odds and their story is well known. Some would argue that the greatest QB to never win a SB is Dan Marino, but I submit that Rivers is at least in the discussion. LA has the running game to keep opposing offenses honest this year with Gordon (885 yards / 5.1 YPC) and Ekeler (554 yards 5.2 YPC). It’s allowed Rivers to operate and once again put up huge numbers (4,308 yards / 32-12 ratio). This is also a “double revenge” scenario for Rivers, as Brady has gotten the better of him twice in the playoffs, 2007 in the divisional round and the conference title game in New England the following year (note: Chargers covered both games!). Brady and the Patriots place in history is forever cemented, but there was something about this year’s Patriots which just didn’t “feel” the same as in season’s past (New England also benefitted from a very weak division). Brady had a 29-11 ratio but teh previous four seasons it was 32.23-6.5. Deep threat Josh Gordon was a bust and "Gronk" is no longer a major 'weapon.' The Chargers 9-0 in games played outside of Los Angeles in 2018, a run that includes wins in Kansas City,Seattle and Pittsburgh. The LA defense has surrendered just 16.0 points per game the last three weeks (with eight takeaways in that span) and an AFC-low 16.9 PPG since the start of October. Meanwhile, the Pats look vulnerable following a 4-3 stretch (3-4 ATS) to wrap up the regular season Rivers is 0-7 lifetime vs Brady but this is his BEST-EVER (last-ever?) chance to exorcise his demons. The storyline finally shifts in favor of the Chargers and Rivers in this one. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 108 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Divisional Rd Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET. LA was one of the hottest teams all year, but injury and fatigue seemed to wear on the Rams down the stretch. Dallas was in danger of missing the playoffs at one point, but QB Dak Prescott (3,885 yards / 22-8 ratio) benefited from the resurgent play of star RB Ezekiel Elliot, who finished with 1,434 yards rushing. The Cowboys enter the Divisional Round as arguably the hottest team in the entire league, at 8-1 SU (lone loss to equally hot Indy!).. I’ve never been completely convinced of LA and its QB, Jared Goff. The offense is great, there’s no denying (32.9 PPG and 421.1 YPG both rank 2nd). However, if there is any issue at all with RB Todd Gurley’s mobility because of an end of season injury, then that’s a major “monkey wrench” in the entire chemistry in my opinion. The Rams struggled defensively (24.0 PPG ranks 20th) and even with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald on the DL, Los Angeles ranked last in the league in yards per rush allowed at a whopping 5.1 yards per carry. Elliott gained nearly the same per carry on first downs alone, so it figures that Dallas will want to play some smash-mouth football, which will be huge for Prescott, as the Cowboys love play-action. Jerry Jones’ shrewd mid-season addition of big-play WR Amari Cooper now gives Prescott a viable vertical option to stretch the field as well (Coopoer has 53 catches in nine games with 6 TD catches). Dallas is not just any defense. The Cowboys allow a modest 20.2 PPG (6th) on 329.7 YPG (7th). Dallas also allows only 94.6 YPG rushing (5th), on just 3.8 YPG. The Rams will have trouble running, putting even more pressure on Goff (he did not play well in his first postseason game last year, against the Falcons). LA’s offense is very similar to that of New Orleans and Dallas beat the Saints 13-10 in Week 13, thanks in part to its strong run game. The Cowboys have the potential to take this one outright but a TD (or more) "in the bank" is a nice bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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01-06-19 | Eagles +5.5 v. Bears | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 152 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (4:40 EST). It’s been “do or die” for the Eagles for a few weeks now and last weekend they not only had to beat Washington (24-0), but they also needed the Bears to beat the Vikings to earn this spot. Philadelphia now has its “foot in the door” and I think it’ll make the most of its opportunity. Chicago beat Minnesota 24-10 on the road last Sunday. Overall the Eagles average 22.9 PPG and concede 21.8. QB Nick Foles has 1,413 passing yards with seven TDs and four picks so far. Chicago averages 26.3 PPG and it allows 17.7. QB Mitch Trubisky has 3,223 yards passing with a mediocre 24/12 TD/INT. Trubisky though is in unchartered territory at this point. Chicago hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2010 and I think this lack of experience will in fact come back to haunt it here. Philadelphia has the veteran leadership in Foles to steak this one outright, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Play on the Eagles. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 149 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (1:05 EST). The Chargers will need three road wins now to reach the Super Bowl. Likely not going to happen. Home field is obviously an advantage in the playoffs, but less so in the first round. The teams which earn a bye have a clear advantage as they have extra time off to heal up and game-plan for the upcoming contest. But the Wildcard games, there are no breaks, and it’s just business as usual right after the regular season ends. So, I do indeed feel that this scenario is working in favor of the Chargers in this one. Especially with a rookie QB under center for Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has been fantastic for Baltimore since taking over for an injured Joe Flacco, but in a playoff “one and one” situation like this, I’m giving Chargers’ veteran pivot Philip Rivers the clear nod in this matchup. The Ravens have to be thrilled just to back in the playoffs after a three year absence. Baltimore barely held on for a 26-24 win over Cleveland in Week 17 to punch its ticket. Note that this is an IMMEDIATE “revenge” game as well, as Baltimore knocked off LA on the road 22-10 in Week 16, a setback which ruined the Chargers chances of top spot in the AFC West. The Chargers bounced back with a win over the Broncos the following week and while RB Melvin Gordon is questionable, I still think the value lies with Rivers. He finished with 4,308 passing yards and 32 TDs. In the loss to the Ravens, the Chargers effectively shut-down Jackson, holding him to a season low 39 rushing yards. I think LA has more than enough firepower to take this game outright, but in the end I’m grabbing the points. Play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 42 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 132 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Playoff Total Of The Year is on the over Hawks/Cowboys (8:15 EST). Two hungry and talented teams collide on Saturday night and I think that points will be plentiful. Seattle closed its regular season with a 27-24 win over Arizona at home on Sunday, while the Cowboys rallied for a 36-35 win on the road over New York. Seattle beat the Cowboys in a lower-scoring 24-13 victory at home back on September 23rd, but I think it’ll be the offenses which dominate the headlines in tomorrow’s summaries this time around. Seattle enters the postseason on top form, having won six of its last seven. Overall the Hawks saw the Over/Under go 9-7 this year. Seattle averages 26.8 PPG and it allows 21.7. QB Russell Wilson has 3,448 passing yards and a sharp 35/7 TD/INT. RB Chris Carson has 1,151 rushing yards and nine scores. The Hawks are the No. 1 rushing offense, which gives Wilson a lot to work with obviously. Dallas averages 21.2 PPG and it allows 20.3. After a slow start, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot and the rest of the offense have looked a lot better over the last onto. Prescott had 3,885 passing yards and a 22/8 TD/INT, while Elliot has 1,434 rushing yards and six TDs. I’ll point out as well that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 following a home victory, while Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five home games when the total is set between 40.5 and 45 points. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-19 | Colts +2.5 v. Texans | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 129 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Indianapolis Colts (4:35 EST). Clearly these teams are very evenly matched. Indianapolis has the small advantage at the most important position, but the Texans have home field and the better defensive unit. Las Vegas would agree that these teams are evenly matched, as evidenced by this spread. However, I think that Andrew Luck is on a mission for Indianapolis and I think he’ll be the difference maker in this one. Luck is up against DeShaun Watson, who had a bounce back year after tearing his ACL in 2017. Note that both teams won on the others home field by three points and each QB had a huge game in their victories. Luck and the Colts clinched their spot in the final Week, beating Tennessee 33-17. Luck had three TD passing, while Marlon Mack had 119 rushing yards and a TD. Houston acquired Demaryius Thomas just before the trade deadline and the veteran WR was key in helping the Texans turn around an 0-3 start to the year. Thomas though tore his Achilles tendon in Week 16. I could list some strong ATS stats here, but I’m not going to bother. As good as Watson has been this year, I have to give the slight nod at QB to Luck and in my opinion, that’s enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors today. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-18 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 50 | 32-48 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 10 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U is on the under 49ers/Rams (4:25 EST). The 4-11 San Francisco 49ers are the 12-3 Rams on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points will be at a premium in this one. San Fran has nothing to play for here other than spoiler. The Rams have looked a bit shaky lately, but they don’t need to run this score up to win this contest. Instead all LA has to do is to control the tempo and set the tone. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting to see happen. San Fran has lost four of its last six and all seven on the road this year. Third string QB Nick Mullens has 1,995 passing yards and a 10/7 TD/INT. The 49ers ground game has been decent, averaging 118.3 YPG, led by Matt Breida with 814 yards and three TDs. Overall the 49ers allow 25.8 PPG. The Rams have won seven of ten and with a victory today they’ll lock up the second seed in the NFC. LA has won five of six at home. Jared Goff has 4,489 passing yards and a 28/12 TD/INT. The Rams have been decent defensively though, allowing just 23..5 PPG. I’ll point out as well that San Fran has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven following a two-game home stand, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-18 | Eagles -6.5 v. Redskins | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 104 h 26 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (4:25 EST). The Eagles have fought themselves back into a playoff position if they win today and the Vikes lose. The Redskins will try their best to play spoiler, but after going just 1-5 in their last six, an inevitable letdown seems imminent here as well in my opinion. Philadelphia backup QB Nick Foles is once again dominating, last week he had four TD passes with one INT in a big win over the Texans. Foles also led the charge in an upset of the Rams in Week 15. The Redskins’ season officially ended last week in Tennessee, falling 25-16. The main issues come at QB, as Washington lost both starter Alex Smith and backup Colt McCoy to injury. I’ll point out that the Eagles are interestingly 10-4 ATS in their last 14 after gaining more than 350 yards in their previous game, while Washington is a terrible 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records. No need to overthink this one. With everything on the line, look for Foles and company to once again step up and get the job done. Also note that the favorite is 4-0 ATS in its last four in this series. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-18 | Browns +6 v. Ravens | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 105 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (4:25 EST). Baker Mayfield and the 7-7-1 Cleveland Browns are on a mission to close the season strong whether they make the playoffs or not. Cleveland already beat the Ravens in OT earlier this year. Baltimore has everything to play for here, but Mayfield and company are out to play spoiler. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab this healthy amount of points. The Browns come in as arguably the hottest team in the league with victories in five of their last six. Mayfield has completed nearly 65 percent of his passes for 3,394 yards and a now decent 24/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been respectable, averaging 122.9 YPG, with Nick Chubb leading the way with 972 rushing yards and eight major rushing scores. Overall the Browns allow 24.4 PG and they’re led by Myles Garrett on that side of the ball with 12.5 sacks. The Ravens have won five of six and if they win today they’ll clinch a playoff spot. Rookie QB Lamar Jackson has completed 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,022 yards and a 6/3 TD/INT. Overall Baltimore gets the job done on the defensive side of the ball where it concedes only 17.5 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Browns are a sharp 8-4 ATS as the underdog this year, while Baltimore is just 4-6 ATS as the favorite and only 3-4 ATS at home. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points. Play on the Browns. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-18 | Chargers -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-9 | Win | 100 | 104 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the LA Chargers (4:25 EST). No upsets here. I expect Philip Rivers and the 11-4 Chargers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish here as they look to finish up strong. LA had its four-game win streak snapped in a 22-10 loss to the Ravens last week. Rivers has been exceptional this season, going for 4,132 yards and 31/10 TD/INT. RB Melvin Gordon III had 843 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Overall the Bolts are averaging a whopping 27 PPG. The Broncos have nothing to play for here and they come in dejected after three straight losses. Most recently they fell 24-17 to lowly Oakland. QB Case Keenum has 3,598 passing yards, but a weak 17/14 TD/INT. Offense has been the main issue all year for Denver, which comes in averaging only 21.3 PPG. I’ll point out as well that LA is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 8-2 in its last ten vs. the division, while Denver is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 at home and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine divisional contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-18 | Jaguars v. Texans -7 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST). The 5-10 Jacksonville Jaguars are ripe for the picking. Jacksonville has lost five of its last six on the road and backup QB Cody Kessler has 709 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Kessler was inserted to try and spark an inept offense under Blake Bortles direction. The ground game has been average, with an average of 111.9 YPG. The Jags have been decent defensively this year allowing just 19.7 PPG. This one simply means more to the Texans. A lot more. Houston needs a win here to keep its top-two seed hopes alive. A date at home is just what the doctor ordered as well as the Texans have won five of their last six at home. QB DeShaun Watson has 3,931 yards passing and a 26/9 TD/INT. Note that he has two more TD passes in 13 of his last 20 games. The Texans have been stout defensively as well this year, allowing just 20.9 PPG. I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six on the road and 0-2 ATS in their last two off an upset win by ten ore more as an underdog, while Houston is 3-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 30 points or more in its previous game. Despite having won back-to-back games, I think the Jags come out flat here. Over their last four home games the Texans have outscored teams by an average of 12.25 points. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Game Of The Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:20 EST). Seattle desperately needs a win here to stay in the playoff hunt. At 8-4, the Hawks need to win this game to keep pace for the Wild card. But a date at home is just what the doctor ordered for the Hawks to accomplish that as they’ve won three straight in the Pacific Northwest. This is a big game for the Chiefs as well as they’re still trying to lock up the top seed in the AFC. These teams are in fact very similar, led by a dynamic, play-making QB and strong running games on offense. The Hawks however are much better defensively and I think this is going to play a major factor in the outcome of this one. The Chiefs are led by QB Patrick Mahomes, who has 4,543 yards and a huge 45/11 TD/INT. The ground game averages 114.4 YPG. Defensively though Kansas City is allowing 27.1 PPG. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 3,025 passing yards and a 31/6 TD/INT. The ground game averages a whopping 154.9 YPG and the defense concedes just 20.9 PPG. Note as well that the Chiefs are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Seattle is already 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 4-1 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records. The Hawks come in off a horrible OT loss to the 49ers and they’ll be eager to take out their frustrations in this “do or die” situation. The Chiefs are running out of gas and I believe their shoddy defensive play will finally expose them here in this difficult non-conference road venue. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-18 | Steelers +6 v. Saints | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 25 m | Show | |
My 9* Battle Of Titans is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 EST). In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these talented non-conference opponents has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. After three straight losses the Steelers got back on track with a key 17-10 win over the Patriots at home last weekend and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger had 235 yards, two TDs and two picks in that one, while Jaylen Samuels exploded for 142 yards on the ground. The Saints lost to the Cowboys, but they’ve since bounced back with back-to-back victories, however they’ve been anything but easy (28-14 over the Bucs and 12-9 over the Panthers last weekend). New Orleans’ QB Drew Brees looked particularly weak last weekend, going for 203 yards and an INT. RB Alvin Kamara had just 67 yards. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is already 3-0 ATS in non-conference games this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog, while New Orleans is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-18 | Bills v. Patriots -12.5 | 12-24 | Loss | -109 | 117 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST). I base my picks on many different things. This one comes down to my “gut”, to the “eye test,” to just plain “common sense,” or whatever you want to call it, but after New England lost in Pittsburgh last weekend, I’m expecting the angry Patriots to take their frustrations out on the lowly Bills on Sunday afternoon. The Bills have looked a bit better of late but they’ve still lost four of their last five on the road. Rookie QB Josh Allen is completing just 52.2 percent of his passes for 1,633 yards and a 6/9 TD/INT. Buffalo has been decent defensively in conceding just 23.8 PPG, but as mentioned off the top, I think the visitors are going to have their hands full today with a motivated Tom Brady and company. Thankfully for Brady and company, a date at home is just what the doctor ordered as they’ve already won all six games there this season so far. Brady is completing nearly 66 percent of his passes for 3,979 yards and a 24/9 TD/INT. Overall the Pats are conceding only 22.1 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Buffalo is just 12-16 ATS in its last 28 as an underdog, while New England is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite this year and 7-2 ATS in its last nine off an upset loss as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-18 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on the under Bengals/Browns (1:00 EST). The 6-8 Cincinnati Bengals head to Cleveland to take on the 6-7-1 Browns on Sunday and in my opinion, this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Bengals won their last game, but they’ve lost four of their last five on the road. Starting QB Andy Dalton is out and backup Jeff Driskel is in. So far he has 775 yards passing a 4/2 TD/INT. The ground game has been a weak point on offense as well, averaging 103.9 YPG. But the weakest weak point for the Bengals has been on the defensive side, allowing 29.5 PPG. The unit catches a break though facing Cleveland’s inconsistent offense. The Browns have won four of their last five and still have a slim playoff chance. QB Baker Mayfield has 3,065 yards passing and a weak 21/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been decent in averaging 121.1 YPG. The defense has been hit or miss, allowing 24.9 PPG. Myles Garrett has been a standout with 12.5 sacks. I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of its last 22 at home. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” where field position and ball control is paramount in the victory. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-22-18 | Ravens +5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Seeding Decider is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST). Baltimore is 8-6 and desperate for a victory. Baltimore has won four of its last five games. The Ravens got the better of Tampa Bay last week and got 131 yards and a TD from rookie QB Lamar Jackson (he also rushed for 95 yards). The Chargers are 11-3, but after four straight victories, a letdown at some point does seem imminent. Most recently Philip Rivers had 313 yards and two TDs in a win over the Chiefs. LA though has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory. Baltimore on the other hand is a solid 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road. The Chargers last three victories could have gone either way and I think LA’s “luck” runs out this week. That said, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* MNF GAME OF YEAR is on the New Orleans Saints (8:15 EST). Carolina started the season 4-1, but it enters this one at 6-7. Unbelievably perhaps the Panthers still have a shot at the second Wild Card spot, with four other teams in the NFC sitting with an identical record. But after five straight losses, including a deflating 26-20 setback at Cleveland last weekend, I think Carolina is ripe for the picking. The Saints are already assured a playoff spot, but they still have a lot to play for here as well as they look to lock down top spot in the NFC and the coveted first round bye and home field advantage. Last week New Orleans beat the Bucs 28-14, holding a fifth consecutive opponent to 17 or fewer points. Last week Panthers’ QB Cam Newton failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this year. Newton has been hit or miss this year, as while he does have nine TD passes during the five-game slide, he’s also been intercepted at least once in all five losses and he has eight picks overall. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is already 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-1 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. the division (including 1-2 ATS this season) and only 1-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. With a chance to cement their lead and to end their rivals playoff chances, I look for the high-powered Saints to deliver the knock out blow. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Eagles v. Rams -9 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the LA Rams (8:20 EST). Philadelphia won’t have Carson Wentz under center and they come in off a deflating 29-23 OT loss to Dallas last weekend, all but assuring the final nail in the coffin as far as trying to repeat as Super Bowl champs. LA will be eager to get back on track here after a lacklustre 15-6 road loss at Soldier Field last weekend. Philadelphia averages only 21.6 PPG and with Wentz out, I think that his backup will struggle to find chemistry right away. Nick Foles was superb during Philly’s big SB run, but there’s no question he’s being thrown to the wolves this weekend. LA averages 32.7 PPG and it allows only 24.1. With a victory today the Rams will clinch first place in the NFC West and they’ll be well on their way to clinching a first round bye as well. Additionally note that Philly is a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a road loss in which they were held to six points or less. This one has blow-out written all over it. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Bucs v. Ravens -8 | 12-20 | Push | 0 | 126 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* CRUSHER is on the Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST). The 5-8 Buccaneers had their two game win streak snapped last week and they’ve now lost five of their last seven. They tried their best to play spoiler to division rival New Orleans, but with that attempt coming up short, I have a hard time seeing the struggling visiting side mustering up the same energy levels in this difficult non-conference road venue. Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston has 2,154 passing yards and along with a weak 14/12 TD/INT. The ground game has been terrible, averaging only 98.7 YPG. The main issue for Tampa though has been on the defensive side of the ball as it allows an atrocious 29.5 PPG. Playing defense has been no issue for Baltimore most weeks though, as it allows just 18.5 PPG, No. 1 in the NFL. This is a crucial game for Baltimore as it looks to keep pace for the Wildcard. QB Lamar Jackson had 687 passing yards and a 4/3 TD/INT, while also rushing for over 400 yards already. I’ll point out as well that Tampa is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival, while Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a road loss. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Cardinals v. Falcons OVER 44 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 141 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Total Of The Year is on the over Cards/Falcons (1:00 EST). Two proud teams collide with nothing but pride to play for. Neither side can be happy with the way its season has unfolded to this point, but with the pressure off and with both trying to gain something positive to build off to end the season, I’m expecting more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” Arizona has lost six of eight. QB Josh Rosen has 1,910 passing yards and a 10/12 TD/INT. The ground game has been the weak point to this point, averaging only 85 YPG. The defense though has also been a shell of its former self and the Falcons’ high-flying and under-achieving offense will definitely have its opportunities in facing a Cards’ unit which is allowing 25.2 PPG. The Falcons have lost five straight and they’ll be given the green light today to open up the playbook. QB Matt Ryan has been a bright spot, going for 4,076 yards along with a 28/6 TD/INT. Ryan now has two or more TD passes in five of his last eight games. I’ll point out as well that Arizona has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 21 on the road and in nine of its last 14 as a road underdog, while Atlanta has seen the total go over in 15 of its last 21 as a home favorite and in three of its last four following a loss by 14 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST). The 5-7-1 Green Bay Packers invade Soldier Field looking to pull off an outright upset. While I do indeed feel it’s possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Green Bay kept its slim wild card hopes alive with a convincing 34-20 win over Atlanta last weekend and there’s no reason not to think that Aaron Rodgers and company can’t keep that momentum rolling here in this “do or die” scenario. Rodgers has 3,700 yards passing and a ridiculous 23/1 TD/INT. Davante Adams has 1,196 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Overall the Packers are averaging 24.2 PPG. The Bears enter off a very satisfying 15-6 win over the Rams in their last outing and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown here. The pressure is now on the Bears to deliver the goods, as a victory will lock up the division. QB Mitch Trubisky has 2,579 passing yards and a ho-hum 21/12 TD/INT. Overall Chicago averages 19 PPG. Additionally note that the Packers are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 after playing a home game, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset win as a home dog. The Bears play with revenge, but the Packers are playing for their lives. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Texans -6 v. Jets | Top | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Texans (4:30 EST). The 9-4 Texans looks to get back on track after a 24-21 loss to the Colts at home last weekend. A date against the hapless Jets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion. Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 267 yards and a TD last week, as well as 35 rushing yards. Indianapolis had lost at home to Houston earlier in the year and it was also coming off a horrible 6-0 loss to the Jags and the Texans just weren’t able to keep pace down the stretch to extend their win streak. But a 4-9 Jets team that comes in off an upset win over the Bills looks ripe for a letdown. Jets’ rookie QB Sam Darnold had 170 yards, a TD and a pick. I’ll point out though that the Texans are 3-1 ATS at this year vs. teams with losing records and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a home game, while New York is just 4-6 ATS as an underdog this saxon and only 2-4 ATS at home. I’m expecting Watson and company to respond big in this favorable matchup. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR is on the LA Chargers (8:20 EST). It goes without saying that this is an important game. The Chiefs are fantastic on offense, but downright terrible defensively. The Chargers are the more complete all around team and they have the more experienced QB. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can. LA enters off a 26-21 home win over the Bengals last week, avoiding a potential “trap.” The Chiefs could be running out of gas after their 27-24 OT home win over Baltimore this past weekend. The Chargers have won three straight and nine of ten. Philip Rivers has 3,638 passing yards with a 29/6 TD/INT. LA is 5-1 ATS on the road so far this season. The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS at home this year. QB Patrick Mahomes has a 43/11 TD/INT. The team has plenty of talent, bur recent off field issues involving star player Kareem Hunt could also be taking its toll. I’ll point out as well that the Chargers are already 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while the Chiefs are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after scoring 25 or or more points in five straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST). With so much on the line, I think that home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Vikes enter off a 24-10 road loss in New England last Sunday and now they travel across country to play in another extremely difficult venue. Seattle on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 43-16 destruction of the 49ers and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Minnesota averages only 22.9 PPG and it concedes 22.5. Kirk Cousins has a 23/9 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 30 times this year. Last week the Vikes committed two fumbles and only created one of their own. Seattle averages 26.6 PPG and it concedes 21.6. QB Russell Wilson has a 29/5 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 37 times. I’ll point out though that Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after posting 150 yards rushing in its previous game, while Minnesota is a terrible 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday night contests and just 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with winning records. The Hawks’ look better on offense, as their ground game is firing on all cylinders. I have a hard time seeing the visitors keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Battle 4 1st Play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (4:25 EST). The 6-6 Eagles face the 7-5 Cowboys with their season on the line once again and I believe the improving defending champs will once again find a way to get the job done. After losing three of four, Philadelphia has won back-to-back crucial games over the Giants and Redskins. Last weekend Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz had 306 yards passing, two TDs and an INT, while WR Golden Tate had 85 receiving yards and a TD catch. The Eagles play with revenge here as well, as Dallas comes in having won four straight, starting with the Eagles and then followed by the Falcons, Redskins and Saints. Last week Cowboy QB Dak Prescott had 248 yards and a TD, while Ezekiel Elliot had 76 yards. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five in revenging a close loss by 7 points or less vs. an opponent, while Dallas is only 0-2 ATS in its last two after two straight home victories. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Ravens v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 116 h 6 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U play is the under Ravens/Chiefs (1:00 EST). Baltimore comes in off a 26-16 road win over Atlanta last weekend, while the Chiefs posted a 40-33 win over the Raiders. If Kansas City is going to move ahead in the playoffs, it’s going to have to learn how to play defense at some point. The Ravens won’t be looking to turn this one into a shootout. Instead the visitors will be hoping to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense off the field as play whenever possible. And that means clock control while on offense themselves. Baltimore rookie RB Lamar Jackson has started three straight games and led his team to victory in each. He only has 540 passing yards with a weak 2/3 TD/INT, but he’s also posted a thrilling 404 rushing yards. Overall the Ravens are averaging 24.8 PPG and allowing an NFL best 17.8. The Chiefs are averaging 37 PPG and conceding 27.2. Mahomes has a stellar 41/10 TD/INT thus far. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore has seen the total go under the under in four of six on the road already this year, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 23 as a home favorite. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Giants v. Redskins +3.5 | 40-16 | Loss | -105 | 116 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Redskins (1:00 EST). The 4-8 New York Giants are looking to deliver the knock out blow to the Redskins, but I think the desperate home side keeps this one competitive. The over-achieving Giants look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after winning three of their last four. Note though that despite that New York has still dropped four of its last six on the road. QB Eli Manning has a weak 15/8 TD/INT. So far Manning has one or less TD pass in eight of his 11 games. New York has been weak on the defensive side of the ball as well by conceding 26.3 PPG. A win today the Skins are back above .500 and right back in the NFC playoff race. QB Mark Sanchez will get the call here, but I’m not basing my play on the veteran whatsoever. Washington has many other weapons, including Jordan Reed and Josh Doctson. Overall Washington has been decent defensively, allowing 21.4 PPG. I’ll point out as well that New York is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite and only 1-5 ATS in its last six off an upset win as an underdog, while Washington is already a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as a home underdog and 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a loss by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Colts +5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 116 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Indianapolis (1:00 EST). This is a big game for both teams. The Colts come in off a 6-0 road loss to Jacksonville though and they’ll be hungry to bounce back here and to avenge a 37-34 OT home loss to the Texans ealier in the year. The Texans have been one of the hottest teams in the league, but regression at some point is imminent and after last week’s 29-13 home victory over Cleveland, I believe we’ll see that in this important divisional matchup. Luck was dominant in the loss to the Texans, posting 464 passing yards and four TDs. The Colts are averaging 27.1 PPG and conceding only 23.2. Houston has been fantastic overall, but its weakness on defense is clearly against the pass. Houston’s won nine straight. It’s difficult to win every single week in the NFL and I think the Texans are primed for a letdown here finally. The Texans come in averaging 25.2 PPG and conceding 19.6. I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Houston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight ATS victories. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Panthers -1 v. Browns | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). The 6-6 Carolina Panthers have no hopes of catching the New Orleans Saints for the division lead, but they’ll be looking to keep their slim wild card hopes alive with a win today. It’s do or die for Carolina after four-straight losses. QB Cam Newton has a 24/11 TD’INT and he has two or more TD passes in each of his last 11 games. The defense, once a strength, has taken a step back this year, allowing 25.5 PPG. However, that unit catches a break facing the Browns inconsistent offense which averages only 21.3 PPG. Cleveland may have won three of its last five at home, but overall it’s dropped five of its last seven. QB Baker Mayfield has an 18/10 TD/INT. The Browns have been weak defensively as well in conceding 26 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games following a three games or more losing streak, while Cleveland is just 8-19 ATS in its last 27 at home. I look at Mayfield and I look at Newton and then I place my wager on Carolina. Play on the Panthers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 37 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* play on the over Jaguars/Titans (8:20 EST). The Jags come in off a 6-0 win at home over the Colts, while the Titans saved their season with a late 26-22 home win over the Jets. Tennessee took the first game this year 9-6, but I’m finally expecting more of a wide open shootout on the short week between these two desperate teams. The Jags defense stepped up with their best performance of the season last week, but consistency on the road and from game to game has been Jacksonville’s biggest problem this year. The Titans had to rally from a 16-0 first half deficit last week and I fully expect Tennessee to keep that momentum rolling here. And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout, as note that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in its last three in revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a favorite, while Tennessee has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Skins/Eagles (8:15 EST). To say this is a big game would be an understatement. It’s a “must win” game for both teams. A victory assures nothing, other than “being in the playoff picture” for another week, while a loss “seals the deal” on a disappointing season. With so much on the line, I’m absolutely expecting more of a “chess match,” where field position and ball control becomes paramount in the end. Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency. The Redskins are down to the backup QB in Colt McCoy after losing Alex Smith to injury for the year. McCoy was unspectacular in the Thanksgiving day loss to the Texans, going for 268 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Clearly Washington won’t be asking McCoy to do too much more than just manage the game today, as the visitors establish the run game and hope that their defense and special teams come up big. The Eagles needed a late rally to salvage their season last week, pulling away for a 25-22 win over the Giants. Carson Wentz was an efficient 20 of 28 for 236 yards and a TD. RB Josh Adams was big with 84 yards on 22 carries. But like the Redskins, the Eagles are going to be relying on their defense to come up big today and to dictate the pace of this one. Note that Washington has seen the total go under the number in its last four road games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of six home games already this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -130 | 124 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST). This is a big game for both teams, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. LA has won four straight and QB Phillip Rivers so far has 26 TDs and six INTs. Overall the ground game is averaging 128.8 YPC, with Melvin Gordon leading the way (Gordon is out for this one though). The defense has been sharp as well, allowing only 19.9 PPG. Pittsburgh is out to atone for a loss last week, but overall the Steelers come in having won three straight at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger has a 24/12 TD/INT. Antonio Brown has 1,929 receiving yards and 15 TD catches. I’ll printout as well that LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Pittsburgh is already 3-1 ATS in this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I’m banking on Pittsburgh bouncing back and for the Chargers to finally run out of gas in this difficult road venue. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Vikings +6 v. Patriots | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 10 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Vikings 8* (4:25 EST). The 6-4-1 Minnesota Vikings are on the road to take on the 8-3 New England Patriots and while the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. The Vikes are averaging 24.1 PPG. QB Kirk Cousins has a sharp 22/7 TD/INT. The Pats are averaging 27.9 PPG. QB Tom Brady has a 19/7 TD/INT. These teams are evenly matched. The difference comes in the trends though, as note that Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference game and 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5 | 16-43 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 10 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under 49ers/Hawks 9* (4:25 EST). San Francisco comes in off a 27-9 loss at Tampa Bay and I think it’ll have difficulty producing much offense this week either. Seattle enters off a much-needed 30-27 road win over Carolina and it’ll be looking to avoid a dangerous letdown here. Overall San Francisco is averaging 20.7 PPG, while conceding 26.6. QB Nick Mullens threw for 221 yards and a TD in last week’s loss, but he also had two INTs. Seattle is averaging 147.1 rushing yards per game, which is No. 1 in the league. Look for the home side to double down on the run game this week. Overall the Hawks average 25.1 PPG and allow 22.1. I’ll point out as well that Seattle has seen the total go under in six of its last eight vs. teams with losing records, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine after scoring ten points or less in its previous outing. This number is high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Jets v. Titans -7.5 | 22-26 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 50 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tennessee Titans 8* (4:05 EST). New York enters off a 27-13 home loss to new England, while Tennessee comes in off a 34-17 setback to the Texans on the road. Overall New York is averaging only 20.1 PPG, while conceding 25.5. QB Sam Darnold has missed the last two games with injury and he’s doubtful here. Backup Josh McCown has 276 yards and a TD last week vs. the Pats, but also a costly INT. Tennessee had won two in a row before last week’s 34-17 loss to the Titans. Overall the Titans are averaging 17.7 PPG and allowing 20.3. The Titans though are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six after two or more SU losses, while New York is just 2-6 ATS as an underdog this year and only 1-4 ATS on the road. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 47.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 97 h 46 m | Show | |
My 9* total is on the under Colts/Jags (1:00 EST). Indianapolis has won six straight. Last week the Colts beat Miami 27-24. Indy’ QB Andrew Luck has 3,112 yards and a 32/11 TD/INT. RB Marlon Mack has 556 rushing yards and four TDs. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 29.5 PPG, but I think it’ll have a more difficult time moving the ball today in this unfriendly road venue. The Jags are desperate for a win after seven straight losses. Last week Jacksonville fell 24-21 to Buffalo. QB Blake Bortles has 2,572 passing yards and a weak 13/10 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the rushing attack with 385 yards thus far. The defense has been decent for Jacksonville, but the offense is averaging only 17.9 PPG. I’ll point out that Indianapolis has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four following two or more SU wins, while Jacksonville has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Note that Bortles is being benched in favor of Cody Kessler. With the home side clearly committed to establishing the run in an attempt to keep Luck off the field of play, look for this one to fall under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Browns v. Texans -6 | Top | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 116 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Game Of The Month is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST). The 4-6-1 Cleveland Browns are at Houston to take on the 8-3 Texans on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, this one has home side “blowout” written all over it. The Browns comes in content after winning two straight. Cleveland’s been a lot better at home than on the road as well, having lost four of its last five road games. QB Baker Mayfield has 17 TDs and seven INTs. Nick Chubb leads the ground game with 663 yards and six TDs. Overall the defense concedes 25.7 PPG. The Texans come in as the hottest team in football with eight straight wins. Houston has won four straight at home. Home field advantage can not be overlooked at all as a very real deciding factor as well. Deshaun Watson has 2,807 passing yards with 20 TDs and nine INTs. I’ll point out that the Browns are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 0-4 ATS the last four in this series, while the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a five games or more SU unbeaten streak. This sets up as a classic trap for the over achieving Browns. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Showdown is on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST). Clearly this is a big game. The Titans beat the Texans 20-17 at home in Week 2. Houston comes into this one as one of the hottest teams in the league now though, having won seven straight. The Titans had a nice two game win streak going, including a dominant victory over the Patriots, but they’d come crashing back down to Earth last weekend against a surging Colts team. The Texans hold a two-game lead in the division over the Titans and Colts, so as mentioned off the top, clearly this is a “big” game for both teams. Overall, they’re very evenly matched. Great QB’s with above average receiving. Also great ground games. The defense and special teams are also all above average. The oddsmakers also agree with us that these teams are evenly matched with this smaller spread. So where’s the advantage? This is essentially a “do or die” game for Tennessee, much like it was when it faced New England three weeks ago. The Titans performed at their very best when everything was on the line, and I’m expecting a similar thing here as well. Houston comes in tired after playing at such a high level and I think the outright upset isn’t out of the question here. Note that Tennessee is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 vs. the division and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against divisional foes. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Packers +3.5 v. Vikings | 17-24 | Loss | -119 | 133 h 16 m | Show | |
My 9* SNF MAGIC is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST). Minnesota enters off a devastating divisional loss to Chicago. The Vikes have now lost two of their last three. Green Bay fans can empathize, as their team sits at 4-5, having now lost three of its last four. It’s do or die for the Packers this weekend, as another loss will officially knock the team out of playoff contention. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the ions. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has a sharp 19/1 TD/INT on the year and he had 332 passing yards and two TDs in last week’s 27-24 loss at Seattle. Davante Adams was another standout with 166 receiving yards on ten catches. The Vikes’ offense has been a disaster with QB Kirk Cousins, who has a weak 5/4 TD/INT over his last three games. Two of those INTs were returned for TDs as well. Stefon Diggs was a bright spot in the setback last week with 125 yards and a TD. I’ll point out that Green Bay is still 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. clubs with winning records, while Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Steelers -3 v. Broncos | 17-24 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 EST). The Broncos ended the Chargers' six-game winning streak with a 23-22 win last Sunday in LA , as a TD underdog. However, at 4-6, Denver has more than a little work to do to avoid consecutive losing season for the first time in 46 years! This game marks Denver's lone home contest in a four-week span (in LA against the Chargers last week, with trips to Cincy and San Fran following the Steelers coming to town on Sunday). As for those Steelers, they visit “Mile High” having won six straight contests (who needs Bell?), following a comeback win against the free-falling Jaguars last Sunday. Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 SU on the road this season, after going 7-1 last year (that's an 11-1-1 SU run away from home!). Can't let the small impost stand in the way of taking "Big Ben" over Case Keenum! Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Giants +7 v. Eagles | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 98 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Showdown is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST). I think the defending champs have now thrown in the towel on their season and I look for the surging Giants to take advantage. New York’s offense is firing on all cylinders, coming into this one off a 38-35 win over Tampa last week. The Eagles on the other hand come in off an embarrassing 48-7 loss to the Saints. Note that this is an “in season revenge game” as well for New York, as Philly posted the 34-13 road win last month. New York’s offense has been great of late, but the weakness has been on the defensive side of the ball. But the Giants’ defense catches a break here facing an Eagles unit which is struggling with consistency. While New York has now won two straight, the Eagles enter having lost two straight (and three of their last four.) Philly is just 2-3 at home and it’s averaging only 20.5 PPG, while conceding 23.1. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home, while New York is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Browns v. Bengals UNDER 47.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -109 | 126 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Browns/Bengals (1:00 EST). The 3-6-1 Cleveland Browns would love nothing more than to punch another one into the win column and to put a nail in the coffin for the Bengals season at the same time. Cincinnati is 5-5. The Browns remain competitive each week, thanks mostly to an above average defensive unit. Last week QB Baker Mayfield had 216 yards and three TDs, but the big star was RB Nick Chubb, who has 176 rushing yards and a TD. After starting off 4-1, it’s do or die for the .500 Bengals. Cincinnati catches a break though facing the Browns offense which is averaging only 21 PPG. Last week QB Andy Dalton had 211 yards and two TDs in the loss to the Ravens. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up more as a “chess match” than a wide open “shoot out.” The Bengals will look to control this one while on offense to keep Mayfield off. The Browns will once again be relying on their defense to pull this one out for them. Additionally note that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 21 of its last 36 as an underdog, while the Bengals have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last 11 following two or more losses. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -125 | 126 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). Both teams need wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 2,192 passing yards with 23 TDs and five INTs. Wilson has been very sharp of late, with three TD passes in four of his last six games. The ground game has been strong as well in averaging 154.3 YPG, led by Chris Carson with 580 rushing yards and three TDs. Overall the defense has been pretty good as well by allowing 21.6 PPG. Carolina has won all five of its home games this year. The Panthers’ Cam Newton has 2,443 yards, two TDs and six INTs. Newton has two or more TD passes in each of his last nine games. The ground game has also been strong by averaging 130.2 YPG. On the year the Panthers are allowing 25.2 PPG. These teams are evenly matched on paper and each is desperate for wins. Note though that Seattle is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 on the road and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog of three points or less, while Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last ten at home and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series as well. Carolina has been a “different” team at home all year. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Detroit Lions (12:30 EST). The Bears on the road on a short week to take on the Lions. Chicago enter off a satisfying 25-20 home win over Minnesota, while the Lions prevailed 20-19 over the Panthers on Sunday. Note that this is an “in season revenge game” for Detroit after falling 34-22 in the first meeting in Chicago back on November 11th. The Bears have been great, but I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot. After four straight victories and then hitting the road for a nationally televised contest on a “short” week, would anyone at all fault Chicago if it did have a “letdown” here? The Lions come in with momentum and nothing to lose. Last week Detroit controlled the clock 31:40 to 28:20. Note that the Lions are 3-2 ATS at home this year. Additionally note that Detroit is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 after a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. While the outright upset isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | Top | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST). I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this prime time and big time non conference Monday Night game. KC is averaging 35.3 PPG and it enters off a tougher than expected 26-14 win over Arizona last weekend. Is it a sign of things to come for this explosive offense? It was its lowest output of the year thus far (just saying.) LA is averaging 33.5 PPG and the Rams enter off a hard-fought 36-31 win over Seattle last Sunday. The Rams though are in a neck and neck race with the Saints (the only team they’ve lost to) and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here. Look for the Rams to take a page out of the Cardinals’ defensive playbook this week, as KC was held to a season-low 330 yards last Sunday. The Chiefs’ have been horrible defensively all year, especially against the run. I’m expecting Rams’ star RB Todd Gurley to have a big game here. Last week he topped 100 yards for the fifth time this year against a tough Seattle front. KC came up short against the Patriots in a Sunday night game last month, but the Rams feature a much more explosive offense. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears -1 | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 150 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST). The Vikes smashed the Lions 24-9 in Week 9 before their bye week and suffice it to say, I believe they come to this difficult venue with some “rust.” Chicago on the other hand destroyed Detroit 34-22 and I believe it’ll carry that momentum over here as well. Additionally note that this is a “double revenge” game for the Bears after Minnesota took both contests last season. Overall the Vikings average 24.6 PPG, while conceding 22.7. QB Kirk Cousins has 2,685 passing yards and a sharp 17/5 TD/INT. The Bears are averaging 29.9 PPG and they’re conceding only 19.4. QB Mitchell Trubisky has 2,304 passing yards and a 19/7 TD/INT. I’ll point out though that Minnesota is still just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. the division, while Chicago already 2-0 ATS against the division this season and now 3-1 ATS after two or more SU wins. Lay the points and expect a blowout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -114 | 127 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s do or die for the defending champs. The Eagles are 4-5 and in desperate need of a victory. Philly has lost two of its last three on the road, but QB Carson Wentz definitely hasn’t been the issue, as he so far has completed 71 percent of his passes for 2,148 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs. Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor remain elite as well with 1,244 receiving yards and six TDs combined. Defensively the Eagles are conceding a respectable 20.3 PPG. New Orleans is 8-1 overall, having won eight in a row. All good things come to an end right? Well, I won’t actually call for an outright upset here Saints’ veteran QB Drew Brees has 2,601 passing yards with a 21/1 TD/INT. The Saints lead most offensive categories and they have too, as the defense has been nothing special, allowing 25.8 PPG. I’ll point out that Philly is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 following a divisional contest and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss to a division rival, while New Orleans is already 0-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points. Wentz and the offense will be given the green light and they catch a break today facing the Saints’ terrible secondary. I like Philadelphia to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Panthers v. Lions UNDER 52 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 143 h 6 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Total is the under Panthers/Lions (1:00 EST). Carolina is out to atone for its 52-21 loss in Pittsburgh last week. Detroit is also out for a little redemption after its 34-22 loss in Chicago last Sunday. Overall the Panthers are averaging 26.8 PPG and they’re conceding 25.8. Carolina is still second in the NFC South, but after giving up 457 yards last weekend, the worst of the season to date, clearly Carolina will be out for a better performance today against the incredibly one-dimensional Lions. Detroit’s defense wasn’t actually all that bad in last week’s loss, giving up 348 total yards. Overall though they’re allowing 27.1 PPG, which is ranked 28th in the NFl. The offense has been an issue as well this year for Detroit, as Matt Stafford has a poor 16/8 TD/INT and overall the unit is averaging only 22.4 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Carolina has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Detroit has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after two or more SU losses. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 123 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). I think the Titans predictably stumble here after their epic win over New England last week. The Colts and the ever-improving Andrew Luck continue to get little respect, as they come into this one on top form with three straight victories. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota has sure looked a lot better of late as well, leading his team to back-to-back victories. Last week Mariota had 228 yards and two TDs against the Pats. Prior to this two-game sure though he had six TDs and eight INTs. Luck has been the beneficiary of a revamped offensive line and he’s now playing arguably the best ball of his entire career. Luck or Mariota in College, who would you take? Last week Indy had 366 yards and 29 points on Jacksonville. I’ll point out as well that Tennessee is still just 9-13 ATS in its last 22 on the road and a horrible 2-8 ATS in its last ten after two or more SU wins, while Indy is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of three points or less. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Colts. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -120 | 143 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* 35 Club Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Both teams are 4-5 and each is desperate for a victory. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up though. It’s difficult to win on the road and the Cowboys come in off a big road victory just last week over the Eagles in Philadelphia, but asking Dallas to duplicate that big effort on consecutive weeks is going to be just too much for the visitors today. Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott had 270 yards and a TD in the win over the Eagles last week, while RB Ezekiel Elliot had 151 yards and a TD. The Falcons most recently lost to the Browns after they had won big on the road the week before. As stated off the top, having to win on the road is difficult at the best of times, but having to do it two weeks in a row is extremely difficult and Atlanta fell victim to a hungry Cleveland team. The Cowboys now face the identical situation here. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 330 yards and two scores last week, while WR Julio Jones had 107 receiving yards and seven catches. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a non-conference road loss of more than ten points. The stage is set for a predictable letdown for Dallas after its big prime time win over the defending champs. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 58 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Showdown is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST). This is essentially a do or die game for each team. Both are on the fringe of the playoff picture and a loss today would pretty much spell the end. So with that in mind, I’m absolutely expecting a battle until the final whistle. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Green Bay enters off a confidence building 31-12 home win over Miami, while Seattle comes in off a deflating 36-31 road loss to the Rams. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has 2,741 passing yards with a 17/1 TD/INT. Overall the Packers out gained the Fish 377-294. I believe that Green Bay carries over both its offensive and defensive momentum into this one vs. an motivationally drained Seahawks side. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has 1,967 yards with 21 TDs and five INTs. So far Wilson has been sacked 29 times this year. Chris Carson leads the ground game with only 497 yards and two scores. It’s a short week, so I don’t think home field advantage is a factor. Additionally note that Green Bay is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games, while Seattle is just 10-14 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite (only 1-2 ATS in its three Thursday night games as well.) Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the New York Giants (8:15 EST) These are two horrible teams, but I think that a week off to prepare for this one will do Eli Manning and Odell Beckham and the rest of the Giants “good” on Monday night. San Francisco comes in off a 34-3 win over the hapless Raiders, but with its bye week upcoming, I absolutely feel that this sets up as a classic “let down/look-ahead” spot for the home side. Beckham recently joked that he expects his team to finish the season on an 8-0 run and make the playoffs and while that clearly isn’t going to happen, I think Manning has at least one more decent effort in him (especially after the bye week.) The 49ers are on their third QB of the year in Nick Mullens and while he looked decent against a poor Raiders’ unit, I think he’ll have his hands full with this much deeper Giants’ defense. Note as well that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and on a three games or more SU losing streak. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 151 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* Sunday Night Magic is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST). Golden Tate makes his debut with the Eagles on Sunday night and I think he and Carson Wentz will be too much for the struggling Cowboys to handle. After a slow start, the defending champs now sit one game behind the Redskins for the NFC East lead. Washington is now suffering through injuries, so the door is now open for the Eagles to put the foot on the gas and re-gain command. Dallas comes in reeling, it’s dropped two straight, most recently a listless 28-14 setback on Monday to Tennessee. WR Amari Cooper had five catches for 58 yards and a TD. Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw for 243 yards and two TDs, but he was also sacked five times and he’d go on to throw an INT in the end zone as well. The Dallas defense looked horrible as well, allowing Tennessee to convert 11 of 14 on third down. Also note that the Cowboys committed two turnovers for a second straight game. Wentz dominated the Cowboys last year in two games, going for 413 yards, four TDs and zero INTs. The Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 following an ATS win and after dropping their last two games at home, I expect Philadelphia to lay the hammer down here early and often. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Falcons -4 v. Browns | 16-28 | Loss | -105 | 144 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Cleveland isn’t going to the playoffs. The Browns have already won a couple of games this year, which is clearly a vast improvement over last season’s winless squad. But the Falcons come in on top form and I believe that momentum is going to be carried over. After a 1-4 start, Atlanta has now won three straight. The Falcons are averaging 28.5 PPG and they’re allowing 28.3. The offense is averaging 338 YPG through the air. QB Matt Ryan has 2,685 passing yards and a sharp 19/3 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland has “improved” over last year’s inept squad, but the numbers still aren’t great. Overall Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense is averaging 21.1 PPG, while the defense is conceding 27.4. I’ll point out as well that ATL is a sharp 9-4 ATS in its last 13 following two or more SU victories, while Cleveland is just 6-23 ATS in its last 29 after two or more consecutive SU losses. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Redskins v. Bucs UNDER 51.5 | 16-3 | Win | 100 | 144 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U top play is the under Redskins/Bucs (1:00 EST). Washington will be eager to get back on track here after a 38-14 setback at home to Atlanta, while the Bucs are also out for some redemption after a 42-28 blowout road loss in Carolina last weekend. Washington is averaging just 20 PPG this year, as it’s been the defense doing the “heavy lifting” most weekends, allowing a respectable 21.5 PPG. QB Alex Smith has 1,867 passing yards and a 9/3 TD/INT, while RB Adrian Peterson has 604 rushing yards on the season. TB is averaging 28.6 PPG and it’s allowing 34.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. But the Bucs catch a break this week in my opinion facing a Redskins offense that’s still trying to find itself. While these are normally two higher-scoring teams, I’ll point out that the Redskins have seen the total go under the number in six of their last eight as an underdog, while the Bucs have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 14 following two or more consecutive SU losses. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST). The 7-1 New Orleans Saints are in Cincinnati to take on the 5-3 Bengals on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, I think that Drew Brees and company finally run out of gas here. New Orleans most recently took care of the Rams in a high-scoring affair at home last weekend. Brees had 346 yards and four TDs, while Alvin Kamara had 83 yards and two TDs. The Saints have to be feeling pretty content after that last win and I think this non-conference road game will lead to a mental letdown after last week’s big victory. Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 280 yards and two TD’s in his team’s most recent win over the Bucs. From a trend based stand point, note that New Orleans has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors by going just 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. Despite AJ Green having to sit this one out for Cincinnati, I think the Bengals will keep this competitive. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 127 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). Two desperate teams collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. Both teams are 3-5. Jacksonville comes in on a four-game slide, most recently getting man-handled in England by Philadelphia 24-18. QB Blake Bortles has 2,021 passing yards, but a weak 10/8 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the run game with 334 yards. Overall the Jags are averaging only 16.9 PPG, while allowing just 313.2 YPG on the defensive side, good enough for second in the league. The Colts come in with momentum, they most recently destroyed Oakland 42-28. QB Andrew Luck has 2,187 passing yards with 28 TDs and eight INTs. RB Marlon Back has 381 yards and three TDs. Overall the Colts are posting 28.9 PPG. I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following a loss, while the Colts are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 against teams with losing records. The Colts’ suspect defense catches a big break this week facing the horrible Jags’ offense. Look for Luck to push the pace and for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 80 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* Showdown on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST). Carolina looks poised for a letdown here after its third straight win, a satisfying 42-28 conference victory over Tampa Bay at home on Sunday. Pittsburgh will look to take advantage of his favorable non conference matchup at home and improve upon its four-game win streak, most recently a hard-fought 23-16 road victory over Baltimore on Sunday. Carolina QB Cam Newton has 1,893 passing yards with 15 TDs and four INTs. He’s also been sacked 12 times. Newton has a plethora of weapons surrounding him and his defense is above average. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,560 passing yards with 16 TDs, seven INTs and 11 sacks. Like his counterpart today, Big Ben has many weapons to utilize and his defense continues to improve each week. So where’s the advantage?! Note that Carolina is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Pittsburgh is already 2-0 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU victories. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 79 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* Monday Night Magic on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST). Dallas made a move last week to acquire WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders and while the move may prove to pay dividends, both in the short and long-term, I expect the desperate Titans to pull out all the stops today and at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Both teams come out of their bye weeks, so each has had the extra time off to prepare, making that angle a “wash.” Both teams have struggled to put points on the board this season, getting inconsistent play from their star QB’s. I’m going to call this area a “wash” as well. Special teams and defensive play is almost entirely on par as well in my opinion. Dallas is already 2.5 games behind the Redskins, but the Titans are equally as desperate and hungry for a victory here as well. Note that Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Packers v. Patriots -6.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 133 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (8:20 EST). With a chance to smash the Packers out of contention further, I think Tom Brady will get the better of Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night. Green Bay comes in off a disheartening setback to the Rams, covering the spread, but ultimately coming up short on the SU outright upset. The Pats meanwhile beat the Chiefs at home before then crushing the Bills on the road last Monday. Rodgers was held to just 286 passing yards and one TD last week. The Packers looked pretty good defensively, but having to perform at such a high level on back to back weeks on the road against such elite level offenses is going to be just too much for Green Bay’s unit to handle in my opinion. The Pats’ defense looked awesome last week, holding the Bills out of the end zone. Brady continues to dominate and he’s going to have his way with this “gassed” Packers secondary in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that New England is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 following an ATS win and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against teams with losing records, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. Rodgers and the Packers are in the wrong place at the wrong time in trying to hope for a bounce back. Brady is playing like a man on a mission right now and I think he can smell the blood in the water. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints UNDER 60 | Top | 35-45 | Loss | -109 | 148 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on the under Rams/Saints (4:25 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? Clearly high-flying, explosive offenses would be right up at the top. LA is 8-0 and New Orleans is 6-1. Both teams have been the “cream of the crop” this season, but I’m expecting more of a “chess match” on Sunday afternoon. It’s hard to win on the road consistently in the NFL, but so far the Rams are a perfect 4-0 away from friendly confines. QB Jared Goff has 2,425 passing yards and a 17/5 TD/INT. The ground game has been extremely strong as well, averaging 153.1 yards per game, with Todd Gurley leading the charge with 800 yards and 11 TDs thus far. Look for the dynamic back to play a pivotal role in the Rams offense today (as he does each week.) Aaron Donald has been a standout defensively with ten sacks. The Saints’ have won six straight QB Drew Brees has 1,990 yards and a sharp 14/1 TD/INT. The ground game has been decent in averaging 108 yards per game, with Alvin Kamara leading the way with 408 yards and seven TDs. Note that LA has in fact seen the total go “under” the number in three of four on the road already this season, while New Orleans has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU/ATS victories and in five of its last six against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Lions v. Vikings UNDER 51 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 144 h 30 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Lions/Vikes 8* (1:00 EST). Both teams are desperate for a victory. Both teams enter off losses. In my opinion, this one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a run-and-gun “shootout.” Detroit lost 28-14 at to Seattle, while Minnesota fell 30-20 at home to the Saints. Detroit is averaging 24.4 PPG and it’s allowing 26.6. Clearly that’s not going to get the job done going forward. QB Matt Stafford had 310 passing yards and two TDs in last week’s loss, but he also had a costly INT and a fumble. Note that the Lions traded WR Golden Tate to the Eagles this week. The Vikes are averaging 24.6 PPG and they’re allowing 24.4. QB Kirk Cousins has a 16/4 TD/INT. Despite allowing 30 points to the Saints last week, the Vikes’ strength still remains on the defensive side of the ball. I’ll point out that Detroit has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 13 against the division and in 7 of its last ten as a fav in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns +9 | 37-21 | Loss | -115 | 144 h 30 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns 8* (1:00 EST). Kansas City has been nearly unstoppable this season, but I think the Chiefs will get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent today. KC comes in off a 30-23 home win over Detroit, while Cleveland lost 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week. The Chiefs are averaging a whopping 36.2 PPG, but they’re allowing 25.6. Patrick Mahomes has a 26/6 TD/INT thus far. The Browns are averaging 21.1 PPG and they’re conceding 26.2. QB Baker Mayfield has 1,471 passing yards and a positive 8/6 TD/INT. No. 1 receiver Jarvis Landry has 18 catches over his last two games. Note though that KC is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Cleveland is already 3-1 ATS at home this year. The Browns have been competitive in front of the home town crowd this season and I expect that trend to carry over here. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -133 | 144 h 29 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets 10* (1:00 EST). These are two terrible teams with plenty of issues. As wild as he’s been at times, I still think that the Jets’ Sam Darnold is a better pivot the Dolphins’ back up QB Brock Osweiler. Darnold lost 24-10 to the Bears last Sunday, going for 154 yards and a TD with no picks. New York’s strength though is on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding Chicago to just 259.8 yards through the air. Osweiler and the home side come in off a terrible 42-23 loss at Houston last Thursday. Osweiler had 241 yards passing and an INT. The offense ranks 27th overall. I’ll point out that New York is a sharp 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after two or more consecutive losses and 6-4 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Miami is 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against clubs with losing records. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -121 | 81 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Oakland Raiders (8:20 EST). The Raiders are in tough as they come in off a third straight loss in a 42-28 setback to Indianapolis, while the 49ers fell 18-15 on the road in Arizona this past weekend. Raiders’ QB Derek Carr is the difference maker for me though in this one. Carr is the best player on the field and he so far has 2,027 passing yards and a 10/8 TD:INT. RB Marshawn Lynch is out for the season, which is likely good thing. Now it’s just “next man up.” Doug Martin so far has 40 carries and 171 yards. The 49ers are 1-7 and have nothing to play. The Raiders are essentially playing for pride as well today, but as stated off the top, I think Carr has a major advantage over 49ers’ QB CJ Beathard, who has 1,252 yards with eight TD’s and seven INT’s. Last week the 49ers put up just 267 yards of offense, while allowing 20 first downs. Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland is still 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when the line in the contest is between +3 and -3, while San Francisco is a horrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a favorite, including 0-3 ATS this year. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings | 30-20 | Loss | -117 | 150 h 27 m | Show | |
My 9* Sunday Night Football Magic is on the Minnesota Vikings (8:20 EST). New Orleans enters off a tough 24-23 road win over Baltimore and I think it’ll predictably stumble in this difficult road venue and against one of the league’s other great defensive units. Minnesota is back on track after a shaky start to the campaign, most recently destroying the Jets 37-17 on the road last weekend. These teams met in the playoffs last year and the Vikes won 29-24. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar result here as well. New Orleans has averaged 42.0 PPG in the early going, but the unit struggled for most of last week in Baltimore. And it’s not going to get any easier in Minnesota. The Saints have one of the best run defenses in the league, but they’re ranked 28th against the pass, which doesn’t bode well facing Kirk Cousins and a Vikes offense which has suddenly “found” itself. Minnesota is ranked 13th in total offense and last week it gave up just 263 total yards to Sam Darnold and the Jets. Note as well that the Vikes are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with winning road records. I think Drew Brees and the Saints finally have a letdown. Play on the Vikings. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Ravens v. Panthers +2 | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 124 h 59 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). After a big come from behind win over the Eagles on the road last weekend, I think the Panthers carry that momentum over here in this non-conference matchup at home against the Ravens, who enter off a loss to the Saints. Baltimore’s defense has been superb this year, allowing only 14.4 PPG, but I think it comes in “gassed” and deflated this week after the late collapse last week against New Orleans. QB Joe Flacco continues to be consistently inconsistent and I don’t see that trend changing this week either in what is a very difficult road venue. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 269 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s come from behind victory for the ages. Newton was unbelievable, but so too was the Panthers’ defense when it needed to be down the stretch. Note that Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while Baltimore is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. For all the reasons listed above play on the Panthers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Jets v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 143 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Jets/Bears (1:00 EST). The 3-4 Jets are at Soldier Field to take on the 3-3 Bears on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Last week the Jets lost to the Vikes and rookie QB Sam Darnold had 206 yards, one TD and three INTs, while Isaiah Crowell managed only 29 yards. Last weekend the Bears fell to the Pats in a shootout, as QB Mitch Trubisky had 333 yards, two TDs and two INTs. These two normally offensively challenged teams have played to many high-scoring affairs already this year, including last weekend, which makes it important to note that the Jets have in fact seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open “shoot-out.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks v. Lions -2.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -115 | 143 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST). A couple of hungry 3-3 teams collide on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. I think Seattle stumbles here in this difficult road venue after winning three of its last four. QB Russell Wilson has 1,308 passing yards and a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 127.8 YPG, with Chris Carson leading the way with 352 yards and a TD. Overall the Hawks are allowing 19.5 PPG. Detroit comes in having won two in a row and five of their last seven at home. QB Matt Stafford has 1,602 passing yards and a 12/5 TD/INT. Note that Stafford has two or more TD passes in seven of his last nine games. The ground game has been strong for the Lions as well with an average of 122.3 YPG. Overall Detroit is giving up 26.3 PP, but note that the Seahawks are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 following an ATS victory. Detroit will look to take advantage, note that it’s already 4-1 ATS in its last fie at home (note as well that the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series.) I think the extra rest off leads to rust for the visitors and I look for the Lions to carry over their recent momentum. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | 24-18 | Loss | -115 | 140 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (9:30 AM EST). A “trip across the pond” is just what the doctor ordered for the Jags to get back on track in my opinion, while I believe this trip will have a detrimental effect on the struggling defending champions. Philadelphia comes in off a deflating 21-17 home loss to Carolina and I believe it’s ripe for the picking here. Jacksonville enters off a second straight loss in a 20-7 setback to Houston in its latest action. Philadelphia has dropped three of its last four and it’s averaging 22 PPG and conceding 19.7. QB Carson Wentz has been fantastic in his time on the field with a 10/1 TD/INT over five games. Jacksonville got off to a great start in Week 1 over the Patriots, but overall it’s averaging only 16.6 PPG. The defense has been a strength of the Jags, conceding only 20.9 PPG. The Jags have the No. 1 pass defense in the league, which doesn’t bode well for Wentz. Additionally note that Philadelphia is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS as an underdog in the same points range. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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