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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 8 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show | |
My 9* TOP TOTAL is on the over Mets/Nationals (8:05 EST). Each of these volatile starters comes in off a gem in their respective openers, but I believe they’ll both “come back down to Earth” on the national stage and as such, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Harvey (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who went five scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision against the Phillies on Tuesday. Harvey was 5-7 with a 6.70 ERA last year and he was particularly ineffective in this spot by going just 2-6 with a 7.14 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Tanner Roark (1-0, 1.29), who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings while striking out six in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Roark took a step back in 2016 with an overall 13-11, 4.67 ERA and note that he was poor in this position as well by going just 6-6 with a ballooned 5.04 ERA in all “night” games. I am unconvinced that either of these erratic starters has firmly turned any corners at this point and I expect immediate regression from both. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-18 | Mavs v. 76ers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the under Mavs/76ers (1:05 EST). Dallas comes in off a second straight loss, most recently falling 113-106 in OT at Detroit on Friday. Philadelphia has won 13 straight after holding on for a 132-130 OT home win over the Cavaliers on Friday. Both teams come in tired and I’m expecting this total to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The Mavericks average 102.4 PPG and they concede 105.1. Harrison Barnes leads the nightly charge with 18.8 points and 6.1 boards per game, while rookie Dennis Smith Jr. adds 15.1 points and 5.1 assists per night. Johnathan Motley led the way in the most recent loss though with 26 points and 13 boards. The 76ers average 109.4 PPG and they concede 105.4. Big man Joel Embiid will be sitting this one out, meaning that Ben Simmons will be asked to carry the load, he is averaging 16 points, 8.2 boards, 8.2 assists and 1.72 steals per game. I’ll point out that Dallas has seen the total go under the number in four of six already this year after playing to three or more consecutive OVERs, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of 13 after allowing 115 points or more this season. Fatigue is a very real factor at this time of year. The Mavs look poised for another letdown here after their latest collapse, while the 76ers could also be caught “flat footed” after their most recent victory over their most heated rival. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-18 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 212 | Top | 95-117 | Push | 0 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the UNDER between the LA Clippers and the Utah Jazz. The Clippers are in Utah on Thursday night and in my opinion, everything points to more of a defensive battle than a high-scoring shootout. LA has won five of its last eight and it needs to continue to win if it has any hopes of making the playoffs. So far the Clippers average 109.3 PPG and they concede 108.4. Lou Williams averages 22.7 points and 5.3 assists per game, while DeAndre Jordan adds 12.4 points and 15.4 boards a game. Utah is equally as hungry here though as it looks to improve its playoff positioning. It also comes in on top form having won 12 of its last 15. The Jazz average only 103.8 PPG, but they make up for it on the defensive end by conceding just 100.2. Donovan Mitchell has been a standout all year by averaging 20.4 points and 3.6 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that LA has already seen the total go under the number in nine of 13 this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Utah has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine already this season after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This one should have a playoff like atmosphere. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-18 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 206.5 | Top | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the under Celtics/Raptors (8:00 EST). Both teams were in action last night and as such, I absolutely believe they’ll each come in with “heavy legs” here. Boston enters off a 106-102 loss at Milwaukee, while Toronto fell 112-106 in Cleveland. These teams played on Saturday night and Boston scored the 110-99 victory at home and suffice it to say, I think we’re going to witness a much more defensive battle this evening between these two Eastern Conference powerhouses. The Celtics average 104.2 PPG and they concede 100.1. Kyrie Irving is out of the line-up until the playoffs now after a minor surgery, so it’s Al Horford shouldering the nightly load with 12.8 points, 7.4 boards and 4.8 assists per night. The Raptors average 112.3 points and they concede 104.5. DeMar DeRozan leads the way with 23.4 points and 5.2 assists per night, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.5 points, 5.6 boards and 6.9 assists per game. I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 against the division already this year, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven against divisional opponents. Fatigue is a major factor at this time of year. The last thing the undermanned Celtics can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with the high-flying Raptors. Everything points to a defensive affair, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Cards/Brewers (7:40 EST). I had a play on the Brewers yesterday and I obviously feel pretty fortunate after they came from behind late to win 5-4. Game 1 of this series was also high-scoring, with the Cards winning 8-4. Wednesday’s matchup points to more of a “duel” in my opinion though. The visitors hand the ball to Carlost Martinez (0-1, 8.31 ERA) who gave up four earned runs off four hits and six walks over 4.1 innings while striking out five in a losing cause to the Mets on Thursday. Martinez was better at home than on the road last year, but note that he was 9-6 with a 3.63 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (0-0, 10.80 ERA), who gave up four runs off seven hits and two walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Friars on Friday. Chacin started slowly last year as well, but closed by going 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA for San Diego and I think he’ll have his emotions under control much better this evening, than he did in his debut. Two veteran hurlers going head-to-head here and each came out and laid an egg in their respective Openers. I think we’ll see these two settle down in their second outings though and I’m expecting them to battle deep into the latter frames tonight. As such, I look for this one stay below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-18 | Indians v. Angels OVER 8 | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Indians/Angels (10:05 EST). These teams combined for just six runs in yesterday’s 6-0 victory for the Indians, but I think we’ll see more of a “slugfest” on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Josh Tomlin, who was 10-9 with a 4.98 ERA in 2017. In his final tune up he’d give up three earned runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings against the Giants. Tomlin finished spring with an unimpressive 6.23 ERA and note that he was particularly pedestrian in this spot last year by posting a 4.57 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Garrett Richards (0-0, 7.20), who gave up four earned runs off seven hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to the A’s on Thursday. Recent form is often the best indicator we have when trying to properly judge a staring pitcher and in this case, both of these hurlers come in struggling. In fact, I expect each to get the hook early and as such, I look for this one to comfortably eclipse the posted total sooner rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan OVER 128 | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -125 | 128 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is the over Loyola Chicago/Michigan (6:05 EST). No. 11 Loyola-Chicago is looking for another upset here taking on No. 3 Michigan in the Final Four on Saturday from San Antonio. So far the Ramblers have advanced with wins over Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State. The Wolverines have made it to this point with victories over Montana, Houston, Texas A&M and Florida State. Loyola Chicago averages 72 PPG and it concedes 62.4. The Ramblers shot 57% in their 78-62 destruction of K-State, led by 23 points from Ben Richardson. Loyola Chicago would also hold the Wildcats to just 34 percent shooting. Michigan averages 74.1 PPG and it concedes 63.1. The Wolverines shot just 38.8 percent in their win over FSU, but they’d go on to hold the Seminoles to an even worse 32 percent. Charles Matthews was an offensive bright spot with 17 points and eight boards. These teams are known for their defensive prowess, but I think the value has swung the other way here. The Ramblers have shot at least 50 percent from the floor in their last three games, all coming against very strong defensive teams. Loyola Chicago will be looking to get the Wolverines out of their comfort zone, which means a faster paced affair. Faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. (Additional O/U ATS supporting trends to be added shortly) With the extra time off to prepare and rest, I look for these two hungry teams to push the tempo and for this one to sneak over as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-18 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 218 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Suns/Rockets (8:05 EST). The Suns are playing for a top lottery ball this coming summer, but after ten straight losses, including a 111-99 setback at home to the Clippers on Wednesday, I expect the team to come out fired up tonight as it looks to break the string of futility. Houston has won ten straight, most recently smashing the lowly Bulls 118-86 at home on Tuesday. When these teams met on January 28th, it was a rather lower-scoring affair in the Rockets’ 113-102 home win, but I think we’re going to see a more wide-open pace this evening. Phoenix averages 103.8 PPG and it concedes 113.7. Devin Booker averages a team high 24.9 points and 4.7 assists per game, while Elfrid Payton adds 12.7 points and 6.2 assists. Tyler Ulis led the way in a losing cause last time out though with 23. Houston averages 113.6 PPG and it concedes 104.2. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 30.7 points, 5.4 boards and 8.7 assists per game and he didn’t even play in the latest victory, given the night off for rest. Houston easily smashed the Bulls, led by 31 points from Eric Gordon. I’ll point out that Houston has seen the total go over the number in (not surprisingly), 20 of 35 this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring 115 points or more. The Rockets’ totals have been sky-high all season and for the year Houston has seen the O/U go 33-41 overall. But I’m expecting Phoenix to push the pace tonight and with the expected return of Harden as well, I believe this one flies over the posted number comfortably as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah OVER 135 | Top | 82-66 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Penn State/Utah (7:00 EST). Penn State advanced with a 75-70 win over Mississippi State, while Utah would rally to take down Western Kentucky 69-64. The Nittany Lions average 74.6 PPG and they allow 66.7. Penn State has averaged 75.2 PPG and conceded 69.1 in all neutral court affairs this year. The Nittany Lions’ defense looked sharp in holding the Bulldogs to just 39.6 percent shooting. Leading the offensive attack was Tony Carr with 21 points, while Shep Garner added 18. Utah has looked great in this tournament as well, going on the road to take out a tough St. Mary’s team, before then gutting out the victory over WKU. Utah averages 73.7 PPG and it concedes 68.1. The Utes have averaged 69 PPG and allowed 72 in all neutral site match ups this season. Utah hit 47.9 percent from the floor in its latest win led by 19 points from Justin Bibbins. I’ll point out that Penn State has seen the total go over the number in eight of 13 on the road this year and in 15 of 26 against schools with winning records, while Utah has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine after holding its previous opponent to 64 points or less. These are two teams which predicate themselves on their tough defensive play, but I’m anticipating a faster paced Final. This can still be a tight, lower-scoring game and go over this very low total, and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-18 | Heat v. Pacers OVER 208.5 | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is the over Heat/Pacers (5:05 EST). Miami’s three-game win streak was snapped with a 105-99 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday, while Indiana enters off a 109-104 home win over the Clippers on Friday. So far Miami has taken two of three in this season series, including a 114-106 victory in the most recent matchup here on January 10th. The Heat average 103.3 PPG and they concede 103. Goran Dragic averages 17.7 points, four boards and 4.8 assists per game, while James Johnson adds 10.7 points, 4.8 boards and 3.9 assists per game. Johnson led the way in the losing cause last time out with 23 points. After losing three of four, the Pacers finally got untracked in their last game against LA and I believe the team carries that momentum over here. Indiana averages 105.7 PPG and it concedes 104.2. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 23.2 points, 5.3 boards and 2.24 steals per game, while Myles Turner adds 13.6 points, 6.8 boards and 1.94 blocks a night. It was Bojan Bogdanovic which led the way in the victory over the Clippers though with 28 points. I’ll point out as well that Miami has seen the total go over the number in nine of its last 15 against teams with winning records and in 14 of 21 overall since the All Star Game, while Indiana has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring 108 points or more in its previous contest. These are two Eastern Conference teams hungry for a win and everything points to a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 144.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Texas Tech/Villanova (2:20 EST). Texas Tech comes in off a 78-65 win over Purdue, while Villanova advanced off a high-scoring 90-78 victory over WVU. These schools have never met before, but in my opinion this one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “run-and-gun shootout.” Texas Tech averages 75 PPG and it concedes just 64.6. The Red Raiders would force the Boilermakers into 17 turnovers, while committing just ten of their own. Texas Tech has turned up the heat on the defensive end of the floor so far in The Big Dance, allowing just 63.7 thus far. Keenan Evans led the way in the latest victory with 16 points, while Zach Smith added 14. Villanova averages 87 PPG and it concedes 70.5. The Wildcats own the No. 1 offense in the nation, but I think they’ll have difficulties today against the Aggies aggressive attack. Note that Villanova did commit 16 turnovers in the latest win, but overall the defense looked good by holding the high-flying Mountaineers to just 38.6 percent shooting. (updated supporting O/U trends to be added shortly) Fatigue is a very real factor at this point of the tournament and after each team played to such a high-scoring victory last time out, I think we’re going to see a more methodical pace this afternoon as these two hopeful sides battle to the end. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-20-18 | Clippers v. Wolves UNDER 227 | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Clippers/Wolves (8:00 EST). These two Western Conference teams are banged up and injured and each is playing for a spot in the postseason. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect this total to stay well below the posted number. The Clippers will be desperate here after three straight losses, most recently a 122-109 setback at home to Portland on Sunday. The Wolves can empathize as they’ve lost two straight, most recently a 129-120 setback at home to the Rockets. LA plays with revenge here as Minnesota has taken five straight in the series, including all three so far this year (including a high-scoring 126-118 road win in the latest matchup back on January 22nd.) The Clippers average 109.3 PPG and they concede 108.3. DeAndre Jordan puts up 12 points and 15.4 boards per game, while Lou Williams adds 23 points and 5.3 assists per night. Williams was a bright spot in LA’s latest loss with 30 points off the bench. The Wolves average 109.8 PPG and they concede 107.6. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.7 points and 12.2 boards per game, but it was Jeff Teague that led the way in a losing cause against Houston with 23 points and 11 assists. These teams are similar in that neither plays a lick of defense and each is always looking to push the pace. That’s why it’s important to note that LA has in fact seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 21 after three or more consecutive losses, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 27 when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220. I’m expecting an all out war from start to finish and for this total to sneak below the posted number once the final horn blares. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-18 | Bulls v. Knicks UNDER 219 | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Errors is on the under Bulls/Knicks (7:35 EST). Neither team has anything to play for and I don’t believe they’ll be particularly motivated either. In a contest like that, I believe the under offers great value. Chicago has alternated wins and losses over its last eight games, most recently falling 114-109 at home to Cleveland, while New York broke a nine-game slide with a 124-101 win at home over Charlotte on Saturday. Chicago has taken all three meetings between the clubs this year, including a high-scoring 122-119 double OT victory here in the last matchup on January 10th. Chicago comes in averaging 103.7 PPG and it concedes 109.5. Lauri Markkanen averages 14.9 points and 7.6 boards per game, while Robin Lopez adds 12 points and 4.5 boards a night. It was Denzel Valentine who shone in a losing cause to the Cavs though with 34 points, seven boards and six assists (Markkanen sat that game out though and he’s questionable for tonight as well. Same for Zach LaVine.) New York averages 104.3 PPG and it concedes 107.7. Tim Hardaway Jr. had 25 points in the win over Charlotte. With big man Kristaps Porzingis sidelined with injury for the rest of the year, the Knicks are simply playing out the rest of their season at this point. I’ll point out that Chicago has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 28 already this year against clubs with losing records, while New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of five already this season after playing three connective home games. Both teams are dealing with significant injuries right now and each has more questions than answers. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-18 | Thunder v. Raptors UNDER 216.5 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* O/U ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the under OKC/TO (1:05 EST). OKC won its fifth in a row with a 121-113 effort at home over the Clippers on Friday and suffice it to say, I think the Thunder are in store for a bit of a letdown here. Toronto has won 11 straight and 18 of 19 after a much tougher than expected 122-115 OT victory at home over the lowly Mavericks in its most recent action. And now another Western Conference opponent comes to town, but this time a much more dangerous one. OKC averages 107.1 PPG and it concedes just 103.8. Russell Westbrook leads the nightly charge with 25.2 points, 9.7 boards, 10.2 assists and 1.78 steals per game, while Paul George adds 21.8 points, 5.6 boards and 2.04 steals per game. It was Corey Brewer though who came off the bench to lead everyone in the Thunders’ most recent victory with 22 points. Toronto averages 112.3 PPG and it concedes 103.5. DeMar DeRozan leads the team with 23.7 points and 5.1 assiss per night and he had 29 points and six assists in the win over Dallas. I’ll point out though that OKC has seen the total go under the number in four of its last six after scoring 120 points or more in its previous contest, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after winning in OT in its previous game in which its opponent scored 115 points or more. I’m expecting a slower-paced defensive affair. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-14-18 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is on the under Penguins/Rangers (8:00 EST). Pittsburgh comes in off a 3-1 home victory over Dallas, while New York cruised to a 6-3 home win over Carolina in its most recent action. Pittsburgh is just 13-21 on the road though, averaging 2.89 GPG in those contests, while conceding 3.29. Casey DeSmith stopped 17 of 18 shots in the win over the Stars to improve to 4-4 with a 2.44 GAA this year. New York is 19-17 at home this season, averaging 2.97 GPG in those contests, while conceding 2.92. Henrik Lundqvist is scheduled to get the start between the pipes and he’s 25-29 with a 2.92 GAA, including 16-12 with a 2.81 GAA at home. I’ll point out that Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven following a non-conference game, while New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of ten after playing to three or more consecutive overs. I like Pittsburgh to duplicate its strong defensive performance from last time out and while the Rangers have been putting the puck in the net a prodigious rate of late, the trends above suggest a return to the norm is in the cards tonight. I think this one has “goaltenders battle” written all over it, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-13-18 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 232 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show | |
My 9* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is the under Nuggets/Lakers (10:35 EST). The 37-30 Denver Nuggets are in LA to take on the 30-36 Lakers on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. LA is 7-2 in its last nine, most recently getting the better of Cleveland in a high-scoring affair on Sunday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?” Denver comes to town hot off back-to-back wins, including over these very Lakers and against the Kings last time out. The Nuggets got 20 points, 11 boards and ten assists out of big man Nikola Jokic in the victory over the Kings. The Lakers will be out to atone for their 125-116 setback at Denver last Friday. Note that Julius Randle exploded for 36 points in the victory over the Cavaliers. I’ll point out though that Denver has seen the total go under the number in six of ten this year after playing three consecutive home games, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in 30 of its last 53 off an upset win as an underdog. Let’s face it, these two teams clearly don’t put a lot of stock on the defensive side of things, but I think each comes out with a more determined effort on that side of the floor after their high-scoring game together just last week. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-13-18 | Long Island v. Radford OVER 136.5 | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT is the over Long Island/Radford (6:40 EST). The LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds get ready to battle the Radford Highlanders on Tuesday in the “First Four” and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Radford was 12-6 in Big South play and would go on to win the Conference Tournament, while Brooklyn amassed a 10-8 record in conference play and managed to come out as the victor in the Northeast Conference Tournament. The winner of this one will go on to play Villanova on Thursday. Radford averages 67.4 PPG and it concedes 64.4. The Highlanders have won seven straight, but they had to hold on for dear life to beat Liberty 55-52 in a lower-scoring Conference Tournament finale. Carlik Jones was a standout in the victory with 13 points and six assists. LIU Brooklyn shocked No. 1 seed Wagner 71-61 in the Northeast Tournament final and I believe the team will carry that momentum over here. The Blackbirds average 77.5 PPG and they concede 76.6. Joel Hernandez had 32 points in the title victory. Neither team has been playing to many higher-scoring affairs of late, but I think the circumstances of the situation will see these two combine for just enough points to push this one over what I feel to be a fairly low number. This total is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-11-18 | Cavs v. Lakers UNDER 230 | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL Oddsmakers Error is on the under Cavs/Lakers (8:00 EST). The 38-27 Cavaliers are in LA to play the 29-36 Lakers on Sunday night and everything points to a defensive battle in my opinion. Maybe it won’t be the best overall defensive game we’ve ever seen, but I still think this number is much too high. Cleveland comes in off a 116-112 loss to the Clippers on Friday and it would also lose the services of Rodney Hood and Cedi Osman to injury in the setback. LA is 6-2 in its last eight, but its win streak was de-railed last time out in Denver, falling 125-116. The Lakers have a rematch with the Nuggets on Tuesday, so there’s no question in my mind that this young team could be caught looking ahead to that more important contest. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has in fact seen the total go under the number in six of its last nine against good offensive clubs which average 106 plus points per contest and 16 of 22 this season following a non-conference game, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly five of its last seven against poor defensive clubs which concede 106-plus points per night. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-18 | USC v. Arizona OVER 146 | 61-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the over USC/Arizona (10:00 EST). The 23-10 USC Trojans are battling the 26-7 Arizona Wildcats in the Pac-12 Men’s Tournament Final this evening and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has shootout written all over it. USC comes in off a 74-54 win over Oregon last night, looking great on both ends of the floor, finishing by hitting 50 percent from the field. Jonah Mathews was a standout with 27 points, three boards, three assists and three steals. The Trojans average 77.7 PPG. Arizona averages 81.2 PPG. Arizona advanced to the Final by defeating UCLA 78-67 last night, led by Deandre Ayton, who finished with 32 points, 14 boards, three assists, two blocks and two steals. I’ll point out that USC has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 when playing with one or less days rest, while Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last seven conference tournament contests. These teams played in mid February and Arizona got the better of USC 81-67. I expect these hungry teams to combine for at least this amount again on the national stage. Play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-18 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 212 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is the over Spurs/Thunder (8:35 EST). These were two teams with big expectations entering the season, but each finds itself needing to string together some victories just to ensure that it’ll have a playoff spot. Each is dealing with injuries and other issues, but I believe the conditions lend themselves to a higher-scoring affair between these extremely hungry opponents. The Spurs enter off a 110-107 road loss to Golden State in their most recent action, while OKC smashed Phoenix 115-87 at home on Thursday to break a two-game slide. San Antonio has lost seven of its last nine and it averages just 102.2 PPG, while conceding 99.6. Big man LaMarcus Aldridge averages 22.4 points and 8.4 boards per night (note that he had 30 points and 17 boards in the loss to the Warriors.) OKC averages 106.8 PPG and it concedes 103.8. Russell Westbrook averages 25.4 points, 9.6 boards, 10.1 assists and 1.86 steals per game and he had 25 points, eight boards and nine assists in his team’s most recent victory. The Spurs may be the stingiest team in the NBA overall this season, but head coach Greg Popovich has been changing up the pace of late, as note that San Antonio has seen the total go over the number in eight of 12 so far in the second half of the season. OKC is another top defensive club, which makes it important to note that it’s seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the OVER. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-18 | St. Joe's v. Rhode Island OVER 144 | 87-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is on the over St Joe’s/Rhode Island (1:00 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak above the posted number once it’s all said and done. St. Joe’s comes into this one on top form with four straight wins, which includes a 30-point blowout victory over these very Rams just two weeks ago. I had a play on the Hawks yesterday and they’d go on to crush George Mason 68-49, led by 14 points and nine boards from Nick Robinson. Rhode Island cruised to a 76-67 win over VCU in its latest action, hitting 50 percent from range in the victory (11 of 22.) Jeff Dowtin was a standout with 18 points, while Jared Terrell finished 16. I’l point out that St. Joe’s has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 19 already this year when the total in the contest is set between 140 and 149.5, while Rhode Island has seen the total sail above the posted number in both games that it’s played in already this year when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. This one has the feel of a “run and gun shootout.” Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-09-18 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 212 | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is on the over Knicks/Bucks (8:05 EST). New York is struggling down the stretch, but I think it’ll put up enough of a fight against the Bucks to make the home side sweat a little. The Knicks most recently dropped their fifth straight, a poor 111-87 setback on the road in Portland on Tuesday. The Bucks won’t be taking anything for granted here though, as they come in having lost two straight, most recently a 110-99 setback at home to Houston on Wednesday. Note that so far the Bucks have taken both meetings against New York this year. New York averages 103.8 PPG and it concedes 107.1. Enes Kanter averages 14.3 points and 10.8 boards per game, while Tim Hardaway Jr. adds 17 points a night. Hardaway had 19 points in a losing cause to the Blazers last time out. Milwaukee averages 104.6 PPG and it concedes 105.2. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 27.2 points, 10.2 boards, 4.8 assists, 1.46 blocks and 1.46 steals per game, while Khris Middleton adds 19.7 points and 5.2 boards per night. I’ll point out that New York has in fact seen the total go over the number in five of eight already this year after playing three consecutive road games, while Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the posted number in not surprisingly five of its last seven against poor defensive clubs which concede 106-plus points per night. Milwaukee is desperate for a victory and I look for it to get out and run tonight. Everything points to a faster-paced, higher-scoring over in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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03-08-18 | Long Beach State v. CS-Fullerton OVER 152.5 | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG WEST TOURNAMENT TOP TOTAL is on the OVER between LBSU and Cal State Fullerton (5:30 EST). LBSU comes in having won two straight, finishing league play with a 9-7 record and entering the tournament as the No. 5 seed. The 49ers have a good shot at winning this tournament if they can continue that momentum. LBSU got 17 points from Gabe Levin in the 49ers’ 77-59 win over Riverside last time out, while Deishaun Booker added 16 points and ten boards. Cal State Fullerton is 10-6 and comes in as the No. 4 seed. Cal State will be eager to return to form though after an unimpressive 68-60 home loss to Hawaii in its regular season finale. These teams played twice in the regular season and each was a rather higher-scoring affair, with the 49ers beating the Titans 81-73 in the first one and then CS Fullerton returning the favor in an 81-71 victory at home in the second. The Titans would post 54 points in the second half of the final matchup against LBSU, getting 25 points from Kyle Allman. I’ll point out as well that LBSU has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 against teams with winning records this year and in nine of its last 13 tournaments games overall, while CS Fullerton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after scoring 60 points or less its previous outing. Both teams are hungry and I expect the overall determination exhibited by each to translate into offensive production on the court. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-18 | Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 237.5 | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Pelicans/Clippers (10:35 EST). LA sits just a game back of Denver for the final playoff spot in the West, while New Orleans will be looking to improve its playoff positioning. Then Pelicans enter off a 126-109 win over Dallas on Sunday, getting 30 points from Jrue Holiday. Big man Anthony Davis had 23 points, 13 boards, three steals and three blocks. LA is 9-3 in its last 12 after holding on for a 123-120 win over Brooklyn, overcoming a 15-point third quarter deficit. Austin Rivers had a team-high 27 points, while Lou Williams added 21. The first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams is high-scoring offense and very little defense. And that’s why it’s important to note that the Pelicans have in fact seen the total go under the number in three of their last four following a win by ten points or more, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven home games when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220. This can still be a high-scoring affair and stay below this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I expect to happen. This number is indeed just a tad high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-18 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame OVER 133.5 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* ACC TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the over Pittsburgh/Notre Dame (2:30 EST). Both teams have had issues with injuries this year and the result wasn’t pretty. Pittsburgh finished 0-18 in the ACC, while Notre Dame was 8-10. Note that when these teams played on February 28th, it was the Irish that pulled away for the 73-56 home victory. Pittsburgh comes in averaging just 62 PPG, while conceding 72.5. After losing forward Ryan Luther in a loss to West Virginia in early December, the Panthers were never able to recover. Notre Dame won’t be going to the NCAA Tournament, but the Irish won’t be rolling over today either. Keep your eyes on Bonzie Colson, who had 12 points and nine boards in the win over the Eagles earlier in the year. Despite its offensive struggles this season, I’ll point out that Boston College has in fact seen the total go over the number in three of its last four conference tournament games, while Notre Dame has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of 14 as a favorite this season and in five of eight off a loss against a conference rival. Two teams which disappointed in the regular season have one last chance to redeem. This one has the feel of a wide open, faster-paced affair. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-04-18 | Tulane v. UCF UNDER 130.5 | Top | 51-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is the under Tulane/UCF (4:30 EST). Tulane is 14-15 overall and 5-12 in league play. UCF is 17-12 overall and 8-9 in conference action and it comes in having lost three straight. UCF looks poised for a bit of a mental letdown here in my opinion after its “close but no cigar” 75-71 loss to No. 11 Wichita State in its most recent action. The Green wave average 73.8 PPG and they concede 74.3. The Knights average just 62.9 PPG and they concede only 61.7. Tulane looked horrible offensively in its latest loss though, falling 78-49 to Cincinnati on Thursday, managing to connect on just 31 percent shooting from the floor. I’ll point out as well that the Green Wave have already seen the total go under the number in three of four this year when the total in the contest is set between 130 and 139 1/2 and in four of five against good defensive clubs which concede 64 points or less, while UCF has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight when playing the role of favorite. I believe these two disinterested teams go through the motions today and I expect this one to ultimately stay below the number once the final horn sounds. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-18 | Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 219 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the under Lakers/Spurs (9:05 EST). I think the Lakers have a bit of a mental letdown here after winning four straight, most recently smashing the Heat 131-113 on the road on Thursday. The Spurs clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here after falling 121-116 at home to New Orleans in their most recent action. Note that the Lakers posted the lower-scoring 93-81 home win in the first meeting between the clubs this season and in my opinion, all signs point to a similar final combined outcome here as well. LA averages 108.3 PPG and it concedes 110. Isaiah Thomas had 29 points off the bench in his teams most recent victory. San Antonio averages only 102.2 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive side by conceding a league best 99.2 PPG. Rudy Gay came off the bench to score 19 points in the loss to the Pelicans. Despite its recent success, I’ll point out that LA has still seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after scoring 130 points or more in its previous contest, while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of 13 already this season when playing with two days of rest. In my opinion, everything points to the under as the correct call in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 220 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the under between the Pelicans and Spurs (8:35 EST). The 34-26 New Orleans Pelicans are in San Antonio to take on the 36-25 Spurs on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. New Orleans has won six straight behind some amazing play from big man Anthony Davis, but I think he and the surging Pelicans will get slowed down tonight against the Spurs tough defense and their big LaMarcus Aldridge. The Pelicans currently sit 1.5 games behind San Antonio for fourth place in the West. Davis most recently posted 53 points, 18 boards and five blocks in a 125-116 win over the Suns on Monday. San Antonio snapped a four-game slide with a 110-94 win over Cleveland on Sunday and suffice it to say, I expect the team to carry that momentum over here. The Spurs got some very encouraging news as well recently, as Kawhi Leonard is expected to return to the line-up within the next week or so. I’ll point out that New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in 25 of its last 42 against the division, while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten already this year after playing three consecutive road games and in ten of 12 when playing with two days of rest. The Pelicans beat the Spurs 107-90 at home on November 22nd and in my opinion, everything points to a similar final combined score here as well. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-16-18 | Blues v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Blues/Stars (8:30 EST). St. Louis will be eager to return to the winners circle after a 4-3 OT loss to Nashville, while Dallas is also out to atone this evening after a listless 6-0 home setback to the lowly Canucks in its latest action. With both teams looking to “shore things up” on the defensive end tonight after some embarrassing play in their previous outings, I do indeed expect more of a defensive goaltenders battle in this one. St. Louis enters averaging 2.83 GPG, while conceding 2.56. Netminder Jake Allen is 19-18 with a 2.74 GAA on the year, including 9-10 with a 2.81 GAA on the road. Not fantastic numbers, but certainly not horrible either. Note though that Allen has consistently been at his best whenever he’s faced the Stars, going 8-3 with a 2.20 GAA lifetime against them. Dallas comes into this one averaging 3.00 GPG, while conceding just 2.61. The Stars gave up just eight goals during a five-game win streak, but they clearly fell apart in the loss to Vancouver. Goaltender Ben Bishop is expected between the pipes tonight and he’s now 23-18 with a 2.50 GAA, including 17-9 with a 2.18 GAA at home. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 29 this year against clubs with winning records, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of five already this year when playing with three or more days of rest. As mentioned off the top, the conditions and the numbers point to a lower-scoring under. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 209 | 109-117 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is on the under Spurs/Nuggets (10:35 EST). San Antonio enters off a crushing 101-99 loss in Utah just last night and the team just announced yesterday that big man LaMarcus Aldridge would be out until after the All Star Game to give his injured leg some extra time off. Denver was crushed in Houston, but then bounced back with a 123-113 road victory over the lowly Suns on Saturday in its latest action. San Antonio averages 101.5 PPG and it concedes just 98.1. Pau Gasol remains the top point getter right now with 10.6 points and 8.3 boards per game. Denver averages 107.2 PPG and it concedes 106.5. Nikola Jokic averages 16.6 points, 10.4 boards and 5.6 assists per game. I’ll point out that San Antonio has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 23 this year against poor defensive clubs with allow 106 plus points per contest, while Denver has seen the total go under the number in seven of eight already this season when playing with two days of rest. Injured players and the All Star break on the horizon. The last thing the depleted Spurs can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Nuggets. With the visitors putting a concerted effort into trying to slow this one down whenever possible, all signs do indeed point to the under as the correct call here. Good luck…Larry |
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02-12-18 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 232.5 | Top | 83-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* TOP TOTAL is the under Suns/Warriors (10:35 EST). The 18-39 Phoenix Suns are in Golden State to take on the 43-13 Warriors on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Phoenix comes in off a 123-113 home loss to Denver, while Golden State pulled away for a 122-105 home win over the Spurs on Saturday. The Suns are scoring an average of 104.4 PPG and conceding 112.6. Elfrid Peyton played decently for his new team in the most recent setback, finishing with 19 points and nine assists. The Warriors average a league-leading 115.9 PPG and they concede 107.9. Klay Thompson was a standout in his team’s most recent victory with 25 points. Phoenix can’t play defense and Golden State is the highest scoring team in the league. I’ll point out though that the Suns have in fact interestingly seen the total go under the number in 15 of 22 this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest, while the Warriors have seen the total dip below the posted number in their last four in the same position. Golden State head coach Steve Kerr recently admitted that his team is “limping towards the finish line” as the season nears the half-way point and the All Star Game. Kerr is likely to rest some of his starters tonight. I think the conditions are now finally right for a bit of a lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-12-18 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Lightning/Leafs (7:05 EST). Tampa enters this one off a 4-3 home win over LA, while Toronto comes in off a 6-3 home victory over Ottawa. Two capable goaltenders go head-to-head in this one (Andrei Vasilevskly and Frederik Anderson) and suffice it to say, I believe they’ll be the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries. The Lightning average 3.56 GPG and they concede 2.60. Vasilevskly stopped 44 of 47 shots against the Kings and he is now 33-12 with a 2.29 GAA overall, including 15-8 with a 2.08 GAA on the road. The Leafs average 3.21 GPG and they concede 2.77. Anderson stopped 22 of 25 shots against the Senators to improve to 27-19 with a 2.65 GAA overall, including going 14-9 with a 2.63 GAA at home. Despite being a couple of the highest scoring teams in the league (Tampa is in fact the highest scoring club), I’ll point out that the Lightning have seen the total go under the number in three of their last four against division opponents, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of seven after playing three consecutive home games this season. I’m expecting an all out contested battle from start to finish between these Eastern Conference heavy weights, as everything points to this one sneaking below the number once it’s all said and done. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-18 | Nuggets v. Rockets UNDER 222 | 104-130 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Situational Stunner is on the under Nuggets/Rockets (8:05 EST). The 29-25 Denver Nuggets are in Houston to take on the 40-13 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this total will sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Houston has won six in a row and ten of its last 11, most recently getting the better of the Heat on Wednesday. Denver has won three in a row, most recently over OKC, Golden State and Charlotte. The Nuggets are clearly playing their best basketball of the season, but I’m going to caution in reading too much into their performance. All three victories came at home. Denver has been a classic “Jekyll and Hyde” team this year, as it’s dropped six straight on the road dating back to December 27th. Houston has looked fantastic of late too, but after going a perfect 4-0 on its road trip, there’s no doubt that this first game back in front of the home town crowd also sets up as a “letdown” spot. James Harden had 41 points in his teams 109-101 win at Miami on Wednesday. From an overall situational stand point, I think this one sets up more as a defensive affair. But I’ll also point out that Denver has in fact seen the total go under the number in five of eight already this year after playing three consecutive home games and in 16 of 25 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight against clubs with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, I think this number is a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-08-18 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 219 | Top | 103-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the over Mavs/Warriors (10:35 EST). The 17-37 Dallas Mavericks are in Golden State to take on the 41-13 Warriors on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Golden State will be particularly motivated here (regardless of who is actually on the court once tip off occurs) as it comes in having lost two straight and three of its last four. Most recently the defending champs fell to Denver and OKC. The Mavs can empathize, as they’re just 1-6 in their last seven following a setback against the Clippers on Monday. Dallas had its chances against the Clippers, but it was outscored 13-0 down the stretch in the eventual 104-101 setback. Veteran Dirk Nowitzki was a bright spot with 12 points in 25 minutes. Kevin Durant is expected in the lineup for the Warriors tonight and he’s been consistent of late, averaging 32.3 points on 68.1 percent shooting over his last three games. These teams come into this one struggling, but I’ll point out that Dallas has seen the total go over the number in 10 of 17 already this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 12 this season off an upset loss as a favorite. I believe the stage is set for a faster paced affair. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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02-06-18 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 230 | 125-105 | Push | 0 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is the over Thunder/Warriors (10:35 EST). The 30-24 Oklahoma City Thunder are in Golden State to take on the 41-12 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. The Thunder need to muster up some energy tonight as they get ready to play their seventh game in 11 days. OKC won’t be lacking for motivation though obviously in facing the defending champs, but also because it comes in having lost four straight, most recently a listless 108-104 setback to the Lakers. Russell Westbrook had 36 points and nine assists, while Paul George added 26. OKC has for the most part this season been one of the best defensive clubs in the league, but the Thunder come in allowing a whopping 112.8 points during their losing skid. Oklahoma City comes in off a 115-108 loss at Denver on Saturday. Kevin Durant had 31 points and Stephen Curry added 24. GS was outscored 38-25 in the fourth quarter as it ran out of gas down the stretch after playing the second game of a back-to-back. Note that OKC has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 16 after playing to three or more consecutive SU losses, while GS has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 11 already this season off an upset loss as a favorite. The Warriors play with revenge here after falling 118-101 to the Thunder back in mid November. Oklahoma City won’t be rolling over tonight though, as it desperately tries to break its string of shoddy play. When you add it all up, I do indeed feel that this number is a little low. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -102 | 323 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Eagles/Patriots (6:30 EST). The 15-3 Philadelphia Eagles get ready to battle the 15-3 New England Patriots in the Super Bowl and in my opinion, all signs point to a defensive battle. Philadelphia comes in off a 38-7 thrashing of the Vikings, while New England got the better of Jacksonville 24-20 on Championship Sunday. As good as the Eagles looked offensively last weekend, it was their defense which once again carried the load. So far Philadelphia has given up a total of two passing TD’s and zero rushing TD’s over its two playoff games. The Eagles’ aggressive unit would force Vikes’ QB Case Keenum to throw 20 incompletions. In fact, Philadelphia has allowed just 156 total rushing yards over its last two games. As good as Eagles’ backup QB Nick Foles looked last weekend, clearly the Super Bowl is an entirely different “animal.” Regression seems imminent in my opinion, no repeat performance on Super Sunday for Foles. New England can put points on the board, especially in the playoffs. Note that QB Tom Brady has a 5/0 TD/INT over his two playoff games thus far. But the Pats also looked fantastic defensively last weekend, giving up just six points to the Jags in the second half. I expect that momentum to get carried over. New England would also go on to post three sacks, while holding RB Leonard Fournette to an average of just 3.2 YPC. I think the extra time off between games has a detrimental effect on these offenses and I expect these “under the radar” defensive units to step up and become the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-04-18 | Grizzlies v. Raptors UNDER 207.5 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is on the under Grizzlies/Raptors (12:05 EST). The Grizzlies come to town hungry after losing their second straight, most recently a 104-102 setback at Detroit on Thursday. Toronto enters off a blowout win over the Blazers, 130-105 on Friday. Memphis comes in averaging only 99.8 PPG, while conceding 102.5. Big man Marc Gasol leads the nightly charge with 18 points, 8.6 boards and 3.9 assists per game, while Tyreke Evans contributes a team high 19.5 points, five boards and five assists per game (note though that Evans is out for this one.) Toronto averages 111.6 PPG and it concedes 104.2 DeMar DeRozan leads the nightly charge with 24.6 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.6 points, 5.9 boards and 6.6 assists per game. Memphis has lost four of its last five and it clearly doesn’t have the luxury to “look past” the Raptors today. Toronto though could easily be caught looking ahead to its game at home against the East leading Celtics on Tuesday. I believe the situation points to a lower-scoring defensive battle between these non-conference opponents. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-30-18 | Magic v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 107-114 | Push | 0 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Magic/Rockets (8:00 EST). The 14-34 Orlando Magic are in Houston to take on the 35-13 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Orlando comes in off a hard-fought 114-112 setback in Indiana in its latest action, allowing the Pacers to hit 54 percent from the floor, including 27 percent from range. Aaron Gordon led the way for the Magic in the setback with 22 points, 11 boards and four assists, while Evan Fournier added 21 points. In all five players would reach double figures for Orlando as the team collectively shot 54 percent from the floor, including 32 percent from range. Houston has won five of its last six, most recently downing the Suns 113-102 in its latest outing. The Rockets would go on to shoot 44 percent from the floor, including 30 percent from three point land. James Harden led Houston with 27 points, ten boards, eight assists and two steals, while Chris Paul added 17 points and five assists, as six players in total would finish in double figures. I’ll point out that Orlando has already seen the total go over the number in six of nine this year when the total is greater than or equal to 220, while Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 13 of its last 16 as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. These are two teams which love to get out and push the pace and that’s exactly what I expect to see happen. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-22-18 | Heat v. Rockets UNDER 216 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Heat/Rockets (8:05 EST). Miami closes a five-game road trip tonight. There’s no way the Heat can turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with the high-flying Rockets though. The Heat enter off a 106-105 road win over Charlotte on Saturday, while Houston comes in off a second straight win, this time pulling away for a 116-108 home victory over Golden State on Saturday. Miami averages 101.2 PPG and it concedes 101.9. Hassan Whiteside averages 14.5 points, 11.8 boards per game. Already without Dion Waiters, Miami guard Goran Dragic is also a question mark for this one (and if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% capacity.) Houston averages 114.7 PPG and it concedes 106.9. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 31.5 points, 4.8 boards and nine assists per game. I’ll point out though that the Rockets have seen the total go under the number in four of six already this year after playing to three or more consecutive “unders,” while Miami has seen the total dip below the posted number in 11 of 15 this season against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest. I think the home side has a bit of a mental letdown here after besting the defending champs last time out. And as mentioned off the top, Miami is wounded and tired and will be looking to slow the pace of this one down whenever possible. When you add it all up, this number is indeed just a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 38 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 153 h 19 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the over Vikes/Eagles (6:40 EST). The 14-3 Minnesota Vikings are in Philadelphia to take on the 14-3 Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive “shootout” written all over it. These are a couple of the league’s best defensive clubs, but I think this one will comfortably sneak over this lower-number once it’s all said and done. Minnesota comes in off a 29-24 home win over New Orleans on a last second TD, while Philadelphia got the better of Atlanta 15-10 last Saturday. The Vikes managed the big win last week, but their vaunted defense looked pretty horrible in allowing 24 second half points. In the end Minnesota allowed 358 yards. Minnesota QB Case Keenum had 318 yards, one TD and one INT last week, while Stefon Diggs would go on to catch the 61 yard TD reception as time ran off the clock. The Vikings come into the Conference Championship game averaging 23.9 PPG, while conceding 15.8. Nick Foles is under center for the home side after starter Carson Wentz was lost to injury late in the regular season. Foles was an efficient 23 of 30 for 246 yards, no TD’s and no INT’s last week. Note though that Foles has 596 passing yards and a 3/1 TD/INT in two career games against Minnesota. The Eagles average 28.6 PPG, while conceding 18.4. Jay Ajayi had 54 yards on 15 carries last Saturday. Philadelphia looked sharp defensively, but I think it’ll have its hands full with Minnesota’s balanced attack. I’ll point out that Minnesota has already seen the total go over the number in six of nine this year after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Philadelphia has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of five as an underdog this season. A couple of great defenses here, no doubt about it. But I expect each to push the pace from start to finish in this “winner takes all” Conference battle. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 150 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Oddsmakers Error is on the under Jags/Pats (3:05 EST). The 11-6 Jacksonville Jaguars are in New England to take on the 14-3 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Jacksonville comes into this one completely “gassed” in my opinion after its epic 45-42 road win in Pittsburgh on Sunday. New England will look to take advantage after it annihilated Tennessee 35-14 last Saturday. The Jaguars average 26.1 PPG and they concede just 16.8. Jacksonville is No. 1 against the pass, but clearly the unit faces its stiffest test of the year in frigid New England and up against the NFL’s greatest passer of all time (arguably anyways.) Leonard Fournette had a big day last week, posting 109 rushing yards, while Blake Bortles had 214 passing yards and one TD. The Pats average 26.8 PPG and they concede just 18.5. Tom Brady had 337 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. Brady owns a 66/31 TD/INT in 36 career playoff games. I’ll point out that Jacksonville has seen the total go under the number in five of nine on the road this year and in two of three as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New England has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of eight against teams with winning records this season and in six of ten after two or more consecutive SU victories. New England looked great on the defensive side of the ball last week, holding Marcus Mariota to just 14 points, with 7 of those points coming in the final seconds of the game. And the last thing the Jags can do is turn this one into another “track meet” and expect to hang with Brady and company. When taking into account all of the above info, I do definitely think this number is a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-19-18 | Golden Knights v. Panthers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the under Knights/Panthers (7:35 EST). I use many different strategies when doing my handicapping. I have found that using “common sense” is often the best approach. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. Las Vegas comes in off a highly satisfying 4-1 win in Tampa Bay just last night and I think it’s primed for a bit of a mental lapse here. The Knights continue to defy the odds, but with a much more “winnable” game at Carolina on Sunday to end its road trip, it’s not too hard to imagine the over-achieving visiting side in some small way, also “looking ahead” to that one. Florida will look to take advantage. The Panthers have lost four of five, most recently a 4-2 setback at home to Calgary. Clearly Florida won’t be taking anything for granted as it looks to atone for its recent shoddy play. I’ll point out that Las Vegas has seen the total go under the number in five of six so far in 2018, while Florida has seen the total dip below the posted number in 11 of 17 following a non-conference game. This one has low-scoring “goaltenders battle” written all over it. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-18-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 211.5 | Top | 89-80 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under 76ers/Celtics (7:05 EST). Philadelphia comes in on top form as it most recently beat Toronto 117-111 at home on Monday, its fifth win in its last six games. Boston will look to return to form after it fell 116-113 in OT at home to New Orleans to snap its seven game win skein. These teams have played three times this year and Boston has so far taken all of them, including a 114-103 victory in the most recent in London last week. Philadelphia averages 108.6 PPG and it concedes 108.2. Ben Simmons averages 16.8 points, eight boards, 7.3 assists and 1.92 steals per game. Big man Joel Embiid averages 23.8 points, 10.8 boards and 1.94 blocks per outing. Boston averages 103.2 PPG and it concedes just 98.1. Kyrie Irving leads the nightly charge with 24.1 points, five assists and 1.21 steals per game, while Al Horford adds 13.4 points, 7.9 boards and 5.3 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in four of seven already this year following a divisional contest, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine already this year against division opponents and in five of eight off an upset loss as a favorite. I expect these divisional foes to battle tough and for this one to finally fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-15-18 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Warriors/Cavs (8:05 EST). The 35-9 Golden State Warriors are in Cleveland to take on the 25-16 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this has defensive battle written all over it. Golden State comes in off a thrilling 127-125 win at Toronto, while Cleveland enters having lost seven of ten, including three straight after coughing up a 22-point lead in a 97-95 road setback at Indiana on Friday. If recent history is any precedence, then we should absolutely expect a very defensive battle this evening, because when these teams met on X-Mas Day, it was the Warriors that held on for the lower-scoring 99-92 victory at home. Golden State averages 115.8 PPG and it concedes 109.2. Stephen Curry leads the team with 27.8 points and 6.5 assists per game, while Kevin Durant adds 26.2 points and 7.0 boards per contest. Cleveland averages 110.2 PPG and it concedes 108.5. LeBron James leads the nightly charge with 27.1 points, 8.8 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Isaiah Thomas wasn’t brought into defend anybody for Cleveland, as he’s known for his offensive prowess. However, it will still take some time for Thomas to return to his MVP like form. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor for teams. The Cavs got knocked out of the Finals in five games by the Warriors last year and they’ve already suffered the X-Mas day setback as well to Golden State. The Warriors have been playing at a very high level, but their near second half collapse against the Raptors in their latest action (after having such a big lead at half time) is evidence of fatigue. I’ll point out as well that Golden State has seen the total go under the number in ten of 18 non-conference games already this year, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of 18 this season against clubs with winning records. All signs point to another battle from start to finish between these heated foes. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-15-18 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Sharks/Kings (4:05 EST). San Jose comes into this one off a tough 6-5 OT home win over Arizona, while LA enters off a 4-2 home setback to Anaheim. A couple of competent goaltenders in Jonathan Quick and Martin Jones go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, all signs point to classic “battle.” The Sharks come into this one averaging 2.78 GPG, while conceding just 2.66 (ranked sixth.) Jones is 13-14 with a 2.65 GAA this year, but he’s almost always been at his best whenever facing the Kings, going s sharp 8-5 with a 2.14 GAA lifetime against them. LA averages 2.93 GPG and it concedes only 2.40 (ranked first overall.) Quick is 19-16 with a 2.33 GAA (owns a lifetime 2.52 GAA against San Jose.) I’ll point out as well that San Jose has seen the total go under the number in four of its last six after posting an OT victory in its previous outing in which it scored five goals or more in, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its three after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 132 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the over Titans/Patriots (8:15 EST). The Titans come in with a ton of momentum after downing the Chiefs 22-21 in Kansas City last week, while the Patriots enter off a first round bye after winning the AFC East with a 13-3 record. Tennessee averages 20.9 PPG and it concedes 22.2. Derrick Henry was unstoppable on the ground last week, posting 156 rushing yards, while Delanie Walker made six catches for 74 yards. QB Marcus Mariota finished with 205 yards, two TD’s and and one INT. The Titans are stout against the run, but struggle against the pass, which obviously doesn’t bode well facing this rested and focused Patriots side. The Pats average 28.6 PPG and concede 18.5. Tom Brady posted a stellar 32/8 TD/INT. TE Rob Gronkowski had 1,084 receiving yards this year, while RB Dion Lewis posted 222 yards combined over his final two games of the regular season. I’ll point out that Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in three of five as an underdog already this season and in four of five after two or more consecutive SU victories, while New England has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of four as a favorite of ten points or more this season and in four of five home games when the total in the contest was set between 45.5 and 49 points. With the Pats pushing the pace and the Titans forced to match pace, I’m banking on this one eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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01-09-18 | Hurricanes v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Hurricanes/Lightning (7:35 EST). Florida enters off a 7-1 road loss to Boston, while Tampa enters off a 5-2 road victory over Detroit. After winning seven of eight, the Panthers have now lost three of four. Florida enters averaging 2.73 GPG, while conceding 3.00. Cam Ward is 11-5 with a 2.63 GAA, including 6-3 with a 2.81 GAA on the road. Tampa broke a two-game slide with the convincing victory over the Red Wings and it now averages 3.61 GPG, while conceding just 2.41. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly is an amazing 26-8 with a 2.04 GAA, including 15-2 with a 2.19 GAA at home. I’ll point out as well that Carolina has seen the total go under the number in six of ten already this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Tampa has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last six against clubs with losing records. I think tomorrow’s summaries will be dominated with the talk of these two competent net minders. While each team comes in off a high-scoring affair, everything points to a lower-scoring under in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-18 | Cavs v. Wolves OVER 217.5 | Top | 99-127 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* SHOOTOUT OF THE MONTH is on the OVER between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). Cleveland comes in off a 131-127 road win over Orlando on Saturday, while Minnesota snapped a two-game slide with a 116-98 victory at home over New Orleans on Saturday. Clearly the Wolves will be looking to build off that win and get a little redemption here, as Cleveland has won six straight in the series, including both games last year. The Cavs come in averaging 110.5 PPG, while allowing 107.7. LeBron James leads the way with 27.6 points, 8.2 boards and 9.1 assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 19.8 points plus 9.8 boards per contest. Note that Cleveland is second in the NBA in made threes with 12.5 per night. The Wolves average 108 PPG and concede 105.2. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.2 points plus 11.9 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins adds 17.6 points plus four rebounds. I’ll point out that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in six of seven already this season after allowing 115 points or more, while Minnesota has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of ten when playing the role of underdog. I expect these non-conference opponents to push the pace from start to finish and for this one to fly over as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -107 | 148 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Bills/Jags (1:00 EST). The 9-7 Buffalo Bills get ready to battle the 10-6 Jacksonville Jaguars in this AFC Wildcard playoff and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fly over the posted number once it’s all said and done. Buffalo beat the Dolphins 22-16 in their regular season finale and got some outside help from the Bengals to earn their first postseason berth in 17 years. The Jags lost 15-10 in their Week 17 matchup against Tennessee, but still won the AFC South with a 10-6 record. The Bills won three of four down the stretch. QB Tyrod Taylor had a respectable 14/4 TD/INT ratio. RB LeSean McCoy is questionable with an ankle injury, a situation which could very well see the team open up the playbook, putting added pressure on WR Charles Clay, who had six grabs for 64 yards last week. The Bills average 18.9 PPG and concede 22.4. The Jags average 26.1 PPG and concede just 16.8. QB Blake Bortles finished with a 21/13 TD/INT. RB Leonard Fournette finished with 1,040 rushing yards and nine TD’s. I’ll point out though that Buffalo has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 17 against teams with winning records, while Jacksonville has seen the total soar above the posted number in five of seven off a loss against a division rival. I think we’re going to see a much more wide open affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Cavs v. Magic OVER 222 | 131-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Cavaliers/Magics (7:05 EST). Cleveland comes to town angry after its listless 102-88 setback at Boston on Wednesday. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as Orlando was most recently crushed 116-98 at home to the Rockets. Note that the Cavs actually play with revenge here tonight as well after they fell 114-93 at home to the Magic at the beginning of the season. Cleveland averages 109.9 PPG and it concedes 107.2. LeBron James leads the way with 27.5 points, 8.1 boards and 9.1 assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 19.6 points plus ten boards per contest. The Magic average 104.5 PPG and concede 110.2. Nikola Vucevic averages 17.4 points, plus 9.3 boards per game. Vucevic is out, but I still believe that the hungry home side will keep this one competitive. Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in 11 of 16 already this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and in six of nine when playing with two days rest, while Orlando has seen the total go over the number in eight of 14 already this season after three or more consecutive SU losses and in five of seven when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220 points. I expect a wide open affair and for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-03-18 | Raptors v. Bulls UNDER 216 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Raptors/Bulls (8:05 EST). The 25-10 Toronto Raptors are in Chicago to take on the 13-24 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Raptors come in off back to back wins over the Hawks and Bucks, while the Bulls enter having dropped two straight to the Wizards and Blazers. Toronto looks poised for a letdown here though after its epic 131-127 OT win over Milwaukee last time out, as DeMar DeRozan would explode for 52 points. There’s no doubt that the effort took a lot out of DeRozan, who I think will be caught “looking ahead” to Friday night and the rematch in Milwaukee. Chicago will look to take advantage and to try to avoid a three-game losing streak. But the Bulls also come in off an exhausting affair, falling 124-120 in OT to the Blazers on Monday. I’ll point out that the Raptors have seen the total go under the number in four of six already this year after allowing 115 points or more, while the Bulls have seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL OVER 45 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 86 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the over Wisconsin/Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The 12-1 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on December 30th and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gators. Miami comes into this one having lost two straight, most recently to Clemson in the ACC title game. Wisconsin also comes in off a loss, it’s only of the season with a setback to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers have the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed per game, allowing 253, while ranked third in conceding just 13.2 PPG. That defense though looked pretty medicore in the 27-21 Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Buckeyes. The loss dropped the team from the College Football Playoff: “It’s an honor and a privilege to be here,” Badgers’ head coach Paul Chryst said earlier in the week. “I’m really thankful for our team and what they’ve done to give us the opportunity to play in this game.… It’s an iconic bowl game.” The Hurricanes were upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 on Thanksgiving and fell flat in the ACC Championship game against Clemson 38-3. In the two games previous to that though Miami posted 41 points in wins over Notre Dame and Virginia. Unlike their counterpart today, the Hurricanes have had more time to process the upset/shock from losing. I think that despite the longer lay off, the Badgers come in still hung up on their monumental setback in the Big Ten Championship game: “Now that we’ve lost two in a row we don’t want to feel that way again,’’ Richt noted. “One of the most fun things in college football is the celebration with the team after a great victory. And one of the hardest things is being able to look everybody in the eye when it’s over and realize we couldn’t get it done. But the one thing about our team is we’ve done it all together. We’ve got great staff unity. We’ve got great player unity. And there’s a great trust factor with everybody. They did an awesome job of putting things into perspective. And now it’s time to turn the page and get after a really good team.’’ So here are two teams that had big aspirations half way through the season, but which fell flat down the stretch. It’s extremely rare that I’d have such a big play on both the side and total of the same game, but that’s the way it’s worked out this year (my biggest Bowl side play of the season also comes in this contest.) I’ll point out that Wisconsin has seen the total go over the number in two of three non-conference games this year and in three of four this season when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while Miami Florida has seen the total fly above the posted number in two of its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. I expect these two hungry teams to combine for just enough offense to push this total over the number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* COTTON BOWL TOTAL Situational Stunner is on the over USC/Ohio State (8:30 EST). USC closed its regular season with a 31-28 win over Stanford in the Big 12 Championship, while Ohio State knocked off Wisconsin 27-21 in the Big Ten title contest. The Trojans average 34.5 PPG and concede 26.3. USC held a 501-343 advantage over Stanford in the championship victory. QB Sam Darnold has 3,787 passing yards and a 27/12 TD/INT. RB Ronald Jones leads the way on the ground with 1,486 yards and 18 TD’s. The Buckeyes average 42.5 PPG and concede just 19.9. Ohio State held a 449-298 advantage in total offense against Wisconsin. QB JT Barrett has 2,939 yards and a 35/9 TD/INT ratio. He also has 732 rushing yards, plus ten more scores. I’ll point out that USC has seen the total go over the number in five of seven this year against teams with winning records, while Ohio State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of six this season in the same position. I believe these competent starting QB’s will be the main story line’s in tomorrow’s summaries. Play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Raiders/Eagles (8:30 EST). The 6-8 Oakland Raiders are in Philadelphia to take on the 12-2 Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Oakland enters off a season-ending 20-17 loss to Dallas on Sunday and has nothing left to play for at this point (the Raiders aren’t fully eliminated, but for all intents and purposes they are, the odds are massively working against them, needing luck and plenty of outside help to get in.) The Eagles on the other hand won their first game without QB Carson Wentz under center in last week’s 34-29 shootout with the Giants. But with home field now sewn up for the remainder, I think the Eagles take the foot off the gas this week as they look to “manage” this one and dictate the flow from the “get go.” Raiders’ QB Derek Carr had 171 yards and two TD’s last week, while RB Marshawn Lynch had 76 yards on 18 carries. The Raiders average just 326.8 YPG (ranked 19th), while conceding 349.3 (ranked 21st.) Eagles’ QB Nick Foles had 237 yards and four TD’s in his first start of the year last week. The Eagles struggled defensively against a determined Eli Manning, but I think the secondary will catch a break this weekend against what I believe will be a completely disinterested Giants side. Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland has already seen the total go under the number in four of six on the road already this season, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of eight this year already after two or more consecutive SU victories. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-17 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Colts/Ravens (4:30 EST). The 3-11 Indianapolis Colts get ready to battle the 8-6 Baltimore Ravens on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Colts fell to Denver 25-13 last weekend. Indianapolis got more bad news that injured QB Andrew Luck, who has missed every game so far with injury, may also now need biceps surgery soon. Baltimore bounced back from a tough loss against the Steelers to beat the Browns 27-10 on the road last Sunday. The Ravens are still in the hunt for the wild card berth and won’t want to leave anything to chance today. Indy QB Jacoby Brissett had 158 yards passing and 18 yards rushing with a TD in last week’s loss. So far Brissett sports a weak 11/7 TD/INT. RB Frank Gore had 31 yards on ten carries. The Colts average just 16.1 PPG, ranked 31st in the league, while conceding 26.3 (also ranked 31st.) Baltimore averages just 303.6 YPG, but makes up for it on the defensive side by conceding just 324.7 (ranked tenth.) Last week QB Joe Flacco had 288 yards a TD. Baltimore was on fop form defensively last week, holding Cleveland to just 236 total yards while also forcing four turnovers. I’ll point out as well that Indianapolis has already seen the total go under the number in eight of 13 as an underdog this year and in seven of ten against conference opponents, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last eight off a win against a division rival. With nothing left to play for, I think the Colts simply go through the motions today. The Ravens are on just six days rest and won’t want to turn this onto a “track meet.” This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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