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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Sunday Night Total of the Month is on the LAD/NYM Over at 7:08 ET. The opener of this series flew well over the posted number in the Dodgers 6-5 victory. Yesterday's 2-1 win for LA went well under it. I believe that tonight's finale definitely sets up as a slug-fest though. The defending champs turn to Max Scherzer (9-4, 2.67 ERA), who had his last start cut short due to rain. He went three scoreless against the Phillies. Since coming over from Washingtno he's given up two earned runs over 10.1 innings. Scherzer is the man for sure, but this play is based upon the fact that I don't trust the Mets Carlos Carrasco. I'm not going to lay this price on the road favorite, but I do expect some runs to be scored here. Carrasco (0-0, 6.75) most recently was shelled for four runs off four hits over one inning in a rain shortened outing against the Nationals on Tuesday. He's 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA at home. The Mets won't go down without a fight though. I think they'll plate some runs. Finally note, the Mets have in fact seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs in. This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-14-21 | Chiefs v. 49ers OVER 37 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -134 | 109 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Total of the Week is on KC/SF Over at 8:30 ET. I don't expect to see two awesome offenses on the field of play in Week 1 of the regular season or anything, but more than anything, I don't see a lick of defense being played here today. The Chiefs finished 14-2 last year and lost in the Super Bowl. Most teams that lose in the Super Bowl, then go on to struggle the next season. That's almost assuredly not going to happen to Kansas City this season. That said, not many starters (if any?), will be starting today for either team. San Francisco went 6-10 last year. In the previous season it went 13-3. This is a big season for fifth year head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch. I don't think either team will be taking the preseason lightly. Both have plenty of things to work on on the offensive side of the ball and that's what I expect each to concentrate on in Week 1 of the preseason. This number is a little low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-13-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
The 3rd pick of my STP is a 9* on SD/Arz Under at 9:40 ET. Arizona won here 12-3 last night, but I expect a much lower-scoring "duel" here on Friday. The visitors hand the ball to Blake Snell (6-4, 4.86 ERA), who enters off a gem against these very D-Back, holding them scoreless over seven innings. He also had 13 strikeouts. The former Cy Young winner has now won both his August starts, allowing a single run over 12 innings of work. The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (6-7, 4.42), who iss off a loss to these very Padres on Sunday, allowing two runs with five strikeouts over six innings. Since returning from injury in mid July, the veteran has gone 2-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 25 K's over 32 innings. And the icing on the cake for me today is that San Diego has seen the total dip under the posted number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it conceded ten or more runs in. This number is a little high in my estimation, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* Saturday "1st Pitch" is on Sea/NYY Over at 1:05 ET. August in New York usually means that baseballs are going to be leaving Yankee Stadium, but that's not been the case over the first two games of this series. The Yanks have won both, but each has been low-scoring. New York is playing its most consistent baseball of the season right now, having won eight of its last ten. Seattle had been playing decently for a stretch, but that's now in the rear-view mirror. The Mariners won't be in the playoffs, but clearly they'll be eager to snap a three-game slide and to avoid a third-straight loss in this series. I think M's rookie Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.75 ERA) has been superb this year, but he's definitely been susceptible on the road, as he owns a 2.69 ERA at home, compared to a 5.50 ERA on the road. Andrew Heaney (6-7, 5.42) counters for the Yanks. He most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a loss to the lowly Orioles on Monday. He'd go on to give a season-high four home runs in that contest, as Heaney has now been rocked for 20 across 20 starts. I definitely don't trust Heaney and I believe Flexen's road issues continue here as well. While the first two games have gone well under the posted number, I say the stage is set for some offensive fireworks between these AL opponents on Saturday afternoon. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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08-06-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Bos/Tor Over at 7:07 ET. Two AL East rivals square off on Friday night and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks. Nathan Eovaldi (9-6, 3.71 ERA) gets the nod for the Red Sox. He's been great overall this year for Boston, but he's starting to show some cracks in the armor, most recently allowing six runs over 5.1 innings in a setback to Tampa Bay. I think it's important to point out as well, while he's 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA at home, he's just 4-3 with a 4.68 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Alex Manoah (3-1, 2.47), who is off another strong outing, going seven scoreless in a win over the lowly Royals. It was his first start since July 9th. He has a sparkling 0.76 ERA over his last four outings. It's difficult to say anything negative whatsoever about Manoah, so I won't bother. I do think that regression is imminent and I also believe that he's just in the wrong place at the wrong time today. It's been a great overall season for the Red Sox, but they've now lost seven of their last ten. This is a big series for each club and I believe it'll be the offenses which garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. And that's my call, I think these starters get chased early and that'll ultimately help in driving this total over the number. Good luck...Larry |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Division Total of the Month (NL East) is on NYM/Phi Under at 7:05 ET. Two teams familiar with each other collide on Friday night and it features a couple of competent starting pitchers. I say Marcus Stroman of the Mets and Kyle Gibson of the Phillies battle deep into this one, which will ultimately help in driving this total under the posted number once it's all said and done. Stroman (7-10, 2.80 ERA) will be eager to return form here after giving up four runs over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. Over his last 44.2 innings of work, Stroman has conceded 22 runs. He has a respectable 1.14 WHIP and 101/28 K/W over 122.1 frames of work this season. Gibson (7-3, 2.86), is coming off a win over the Giants on Sunday, allowing two runs over seven innings and going on to strike out five. This was a big step in the right direction for Gibson after a scuffling stretch and I believe he can carry that momentum over here. This is a key weekend series for the Mets. The Phillies are on fire right now, seeking their sixth straight win. But I believe it'll be these starting pitchers which garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. I say this total is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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08-05-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
My 8* Getaway Day Total of the Week is on SFG/Arz Over at 3:40 ET. Obviously Alex Wood (9-3, 3.83 ERA), has been excellent for the Giants this year. He's a big reason that San Fran has the best record in baseball right now. But perhaps his early rosy numbers were just a little too sparkling, as he's already started to show some cracks in the armor, most recently allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Astros on Saturday, lucky to earn a no-decision. And I have no faith at all in Merrill Kelly (7-8, 4.38), who gave up four runs off eight hits over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. He's 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA in three starts vs. the Giants this year. Sluggers Kris Bryant is 5 for 8 with three doubles off him, while Buster Posey is 7 for 17 and a homer off Kelly. This one has over written all over it. The play is indeed the over. Good luck...Larry |
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07-28-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
The 3rd pick of my STP is on LAD/SFG Over at 9:45 ET. While yesterday's series opener went under the number in the Giants 2-1 victory, and despite a couple of decent starting pitchers going head-to-head this evening, I still expect some offensive fireworks in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler (10-1, 2.30 ERA), who gave up one run over seven innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against these very Giants last Thursday. It's hard to say anything negative about Buehler, as he's been great. But regression at some point is going to happen. Is that tonight? The Giants own the best record in all of baseball, and their line-up is hard to contain. Note as well the Buehler's 3.20 FIP points to his sparkling ERA is on the cusp of collapsing. Both teams are down some players right now, but I don't think it'll matter. Finally, note that LA has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less runs in. Look for this one to sneak over the number as the game goes down the stretch. Good luck...Larry |
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07-28-21 | A's v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Afternoon Over/Under (IL) is on Oak/SD Under at 4:10 ET. Last night's contest flew well over the number in the Padres 7-4 victory, but all signs point to a classic duel between two stud starting pitchers on Wednesday night. Neither of these teams has been terribly consistent at the plate over the last month and I think that Sean Manaea (7-6, 3.16 ERA) of the A's and Blake Snell (4-3, 4.92) of the Friars will garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. Manaea has been a work-horse all season for the A's, he most recently gave up one run and struck out 13 over seven innings in a victory over the Mariners on Thursday. He's now struck out at least six in six straight outings and he owns a great 2.94 ERA on the road thus far. Snell hasn't been at his best overall this year, but he's coming off a great outing, allowing one run and striking out eight over six innings in a victory over Miami. He has a respectable 104/51 K/W over 80.1 innings of work and there's no question that he's been at his best at home this season. In fact, Snell is likely the biggest Jekyll and Hyde and pitcher in the league this year, going just 1-3 with an 8.10 ERA on the road, but 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA at home. As mentioned above, this one will be dominated by Manaea and Snell and that's going to lead to this total staying under once it's all said and done. Good luck...Larry |
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07-23-21 | Angels v. Twins OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
The 3rd pick of my STP is an 8* on the LAA/Min Over at 8:10 ET. We don't have to look any further than these starting pitchers to base our play on the over tonight. I think they are both terrible and ultimatley I believe this will be the contributing factor for this total eclipsing the posted number. Alex Cobb (7-3, 3.96 ERA) is coming off a good start against the lowly Mariners, allowing one run over six innings. Cobb's been on a little hot streak, but note that while he's a great 5-1 with a 2.30 ERA at home, he's a disastrous 2-2 with a 6.47 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the volatile JA Happ (5-5, 6.15), who was shelled for seven runs off 11 hits over seven innings in a loss to the Tigers on Sunday. Happ has been more "miss" than "hit" this year and note that he's only 2-4 with a 7.50 ERA in all night contests this season. While yesterday's game stayed under in the Angels 3-2 win, everything points to this one soaring over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry |
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07-22-21 | Rays v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on TB/Cle Under at 7:10 ET. Neither team is really known for its offensive power, but both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, with Tampa having seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five, including in its 5-4 win at home over Baltimore yesterday. This is the opener of an important four-game series for the Indians, who broke a two game slide to the Astros with a 5-4 win in Houston yesteday in the finale. After seeing the total go under in three straight, the Tribe have now seen it soar over in back-to-back contests. But the opener of this one in my opinion sets up well as more of a lower-scoring "duel." The Rays hand the ball to Luis Patino (1-2, 4.87 ERA) will be given a chance to remain in the rotation with a decent outing today. Over six appearances and four starts he owns a very respectable 1.18 WHIP. The home side counters with Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.05), who looked sharp in his first start after the break, allowing one run with five strikeouts over five innings in a victory over the A's on Saturday. It was a big step in the right direction for Quantrill and I see no reason why he can't build off that performance. Note as well, while he's 1-2 with 4.44 ERA on the road, he's 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA at home. Cleveland has seen the total go under in seven of its last nine as well after playing to two or more straight overs as well. Look for these two hungry starting pitchers to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's re-caps of this contest. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Mariners/Angels. While yesterday's game flew over the number in the Mariners 6-5 upset win, I believe Saturday's contest definitely sets up as more of a pitchers duel. Seattle looks to post back-to-back victories by handing the ball to Yusei Kikuchi (6-4, 3.48 ERA), who missed the All Star game due to COVID protocol. Kikuchi is now fine and cleared to play though and he has to be feeling confident in this spot, as note that he's 4-1 with a 2.71 ERA on the road, compared to 2-3 with a 4.48 ERA at home. The Angels counter with Alex Cobb (6-3, 4.23), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to these very Mariners back on July 10th. Cobb has quietly turned the corner for a while now, as he's allowed only one earned run over his last 13 innings of work. Also note, while Cobb is 2-2 with a 6.47 ERA on the road, he's 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home. I think the stage is set for a good old fashioned "duel" on Saturday night. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-11-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* NL WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the UNDER D-Backs/Dodgers. The Dodgers blew out the Diamondbacks here by a score of 22-1 yesterday. Lop-sided contests like that happen a few times over the course of every season, but after that huge offensive explosion, I'm anticipating much more of a "duel" in Sunday's finale. Arizona goes with Merrill Kelly (5-7, 4.60 ERA) who has slowly improved with each start over the last month. He posted three straight victories, before than taking a no-decision against the Rockies on Tuesday, despite allowing two runs over six innings. Note that since June 21st, Kelly hasn't conceded more than three earned runs and he's recored a 2.13 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 18/2 K/W in that span. He'll be opposed by Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 2.11), who is also off a no-decision despite allowing no runs over 5.1 innings against the Marlins. Gonsolin has been making spot starts and working out of the bullpen as he nears full strength after a stint on the injured list. Over 21.1 frames of work he has the 2.11 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Finally, note that Arizona has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded ten or more runs in. I think the stage is set for a defensive battle between these clubs on Sunday afternoon. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-09-21 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Angels/Mariners. The Angels took two of three from Boston this week at home. All three contests went under the number. Seattle lost two of three to New York in its lastest home series. Two of the three games in that series went over the number, but off the Mariners lower-scoring 4-1 victory in Thursday's series finale, I expect a much higher-scoring affair on Friday. LA hands the ball to Alex Cobb (6-3, 4.60 ERA), who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the lowly Orioles on Saturday. Cobb though has been inconsistent of late if we dig a little deeper, as he's given up just one earned run or less in three of his past six starts, while allowing a total of 16 earned runs over the other three. He's also been money in the bank at home by going 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA, compared to a terrible 2-2 with a ballooned 7.84 ERA on the road. Seattle goes with Marco Gonzalez (1-5, 5.82), who was shelled for seven runs off seven hits over three innings in a loss to Texas on Saturday. Gonzalez has been consistently inconsistent all season. Note, he's 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA at home. On a warm Friday night in the Pacific Northwest, look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game gets into the latter frames. This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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07-06-21 | Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* 37-CLUB PLAY TOTAL is on the under Red Sox/Angels. Yesterday's game snuck under the total of 10 in Boston's 5-4 series opening victory. I think we'll have much more of a duel here on our hands on Tuesday though, as I once again expect this total to fall under the number once it's all said and done. The Red Sox hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi (9-4, 3.41 ERA) who allowed five hits and no walks while striking out six over seven innings in a win over the Royals on Thursday. Eovaldi has 90 strikeouts over 97.2 frames of work and he's been at his best on the road, going 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA so far. The Angels look to rebound from last night's loss by handing the ball to Shoei Ohtani (3-1, 3.60), who is coming off an uncharacteristically poor start by allowing seven runs to the Yankees, lucky to escape with a no-decision. Starts like that have been few and far between for Ohtani though, and I expect the Japanese hurler to return to form here in his final start before the Mid-Summer Classic. These are two potent line-ups, but this particular contest is going to be dominated by these two capable starters in my opinion. One last factor is the vastly improved Boston bullpen, anchored by closer Matt Barnes. I say we have a classic "duel" on our hands here on the West Coast on Tuesday night. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-05-21 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER White Sox/Twins. The White Sox have seen the total go over the numbe rin seven straight and in eight of their last ten, but everything points to more of a duel here in the opener of this series. Chicago turns to Dylan Cease (7-3, 3.75 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits while striking out seven over six innings vs. these very Twins last Wednesday. It was his second straight win and his fourth in his last five starts. The White Sox blasted out six home runs in that game and plated 13 overall. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that to happen again today. The home side counters with Bailey Ober (0-1, 5.84), who is out for redepemtion here, as he threw opposite Cease last week. It was his first career loss. The rookie has struggled in some areas (allowing seven home runs already), but been exceptional in others (26/6 K/W). One thing to note here is that the Twins have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 as a home dog in the +101 to +115 range. I think Ober will bounce back here in his second try against the White Sox and there's no reason not to believe that Cease can't carry his momentum over here. This number is high in my opinion, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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07-02-21 | Red Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
My 9* AL SUPER TOTAL is on the over Red Sox/Athletics. Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs in their last outings. Boston destroyed Kansas City 15-1, while the A's were busy losing 8-3 at home to the Rangers. Both of those contests went over the number, and I expect the opener of this series to follow suit. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (6-4, 5.83 ERA), who is coming off a good win over the Yanks Sunday, allowing two runs over six innings. Rodriguez though has struggled on the road this season, going just 3-3 with a ballooned 6.24 ERA. The Athletics go with Frankie Montas (7-7, 4.72), who comes in off a no-decision to the Giants on Saturday. Previous to that he allowed eight runs in a loss. As I said, Montas has struggled with consistency from game-to-game this year and note that he's just 4-5 with a 4.67 ERA at home. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. I think these two suspect starters get chased early. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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07-02-21 | Spain v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* EURO-CUP QUARTER-FINAL TOTAL OF YEAR is on the OVER Switzerland/Spain. Switzerland is off a wild, high-scoring shootout win over the French in the round of 16. Spain beat Croatia 5-3 to advance. Switzerland though has to be feeling confident after coming back from a 3-1 deficit to France to send it into extra time, and then eventually win on penalty kicks. A win for Switzerland today would see it go farther than in any other major tournament, having reached the quarterfinals of the World Cup in 1934, 1938 and 1954. Spain had a 3-1 lead going into the 77th minute with Croatia before almost throwing its lead away. Spain will be wary here to mess around, as it's actually not had the best Tournament to this point, drawing its first two fixtures. It then put five goals past Slovakia in its final group match, and just had five in their last one as well. There's no reason to believe that Spain won't continue to find the back of the net here either. You may want to consider the "BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE" prop as well. But here I'm expecting a faster-paced affair, one which flies over this number in regulation. And that's the play, the over in regulation between Spain and Switzerland. Good luck...Larry |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 221 | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -101 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Hawks/Bucks. Even without Trae Young playing (he could), I think Game 4 sets up as more of an offensive affair, than a defensive one. Young is obviously a big part of this Hawks offense, but this is a feisty Atlanta team which won't be going down without a fight. John Collins, Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic will be pressed to fill the void. And for Milwaukee, it can obviously smell the blood in the water now. The Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.2 points and 13 rebounds while Khris Middleton is averaging 23.1 points and 4.7 assists. Jrue Holiday is a third double-digit scoring threat for Milwaukee.  Young will do everything in his power to play tonight (obviously), but as I stated above, whether he does or not, this one has the feel of a wide-open "shootout," rather than a tight defensive "chess match." This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-29-21 | Germany v. England OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -55.5 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* EURO-CUP TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER England/Germany. England has struggled to find the back of the net so far in this tournament, but I expect the Three Lions to finally get things rolling here against a Germany team which has been susceptible on the backend. England has two 1-nil victories and a scoreless draw. It hasn't allowed a goal in 450 minutes of football, but now it faces its most daunting task here in Germany's attack. Joachim Low and Germany will be out to push the pace and get the Three Lions on their heels. If England has to play from behind, it's going to be out of its comfort zone and that's something that Low wants to see happen here. Neither team has any significant injuries to deal with either. But if England is going to get by this offensive juggernaut, it's going to need its captain Harry Kane to rediscover his golden form. Germany's attack is the most efficient that England has seen and I think it's defense will finally get cracked here. Look for this total to fly well over in regulation before the final whistle sounds. Good luck...Larry |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Habs/Bolts. Montreal's Carey Price is only allowing an average of 2.04 GPG in the playoffs, while the Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy is conceding just 1.9 in the postseason. The main reason these two clubs are here right now is because of their tough defensive play, and unbelievable goaltending. We know these teams can play defense. We know these goaltenders have the ability to "steal" a game on "any given Sunday."Â We don't have to question these team's defensive game-plans or mentality. But the winner of this series is going to be the one that can generate offense. Tampa would seemingly have the upper-hand in that department, as it finished the regular season among the best in almost all offensive statistical categories. The Habs? Not so much. But with a few extra days off to prepare for this one and to get their "legs" back underneath them after a gruelling journey to this point, I think it will indeed be these offenses which garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. So that's my read/call in Game 1. I expect a faster-paced, more wide-open affair, one which sees the total fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the UNDER Hawks/Bucks. To say I'm surprised by how well Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks are playing would be an understatement. This isn't just a "playoffs" thing either, as Atlanta caught fire over the final month and a half of the regular season as well. The biggest turnaround has been the Hawks' suffocating defensive play. The Knicks also entered the post-season as one of the hottest teams in the league, but the Hawks absolutely shutdown Julius Randle and went on to win in five games. Atlanta got down early in Game 1 and had to battle from behind, but when the Hawks needed a couple of big defensive plays late, they did just that in the outright upset victory. The Hawks are obviously more comfortable playing with a lead, as they're then able to smother teams defensively. Milwaukee can't be pleased with the way it collapsed defensively. The Bucks can score, but they'll be out to atone for their lacklustre performance on the defensive end in Game 1. From a situational stand point, this one in my opinion for sure sets up as more of a defensive affair (and note, the Bucks have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded 115 or more points in.) Game 1 went over, but everything points to Game 2 staying under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Suns/Clippers. Game 1 went over the number in the Suns victory. LA looked good for three quarters, but then faded down the stretch after coming from behind to knock off the Jazz. Game 2 went under the number in Phoenix's slim 104-103 last-second victory. I think this back-and-forth pattern on the total continues in Game 3. LA has to be the aggressor from start to finish here. It's already been down 0-2 in every other series up to this point, before then rallying for victory. Will that happen again here? It's hard to imagine the Clippers advancing past the Suns, especially with Chris Paul returning to the line-up tonight for the visiting side. But Paul won't be in "game shape" quite yet and this is Paul George's best chance to get his team back into this series. Momentum is an almost tangible factor in the playoffs and while the Clippers came up just short in Game 2, I still think they can turn things around with a win today. And there are rumors that Kawhi Leonard could return before this series ends as well. So with a win today and Leonard returning for Game 5, the stage could be set for another big series come-back for the Clippers. Whether Leonard played or not, I didn't think the Clippers were going to get swept in this series. LA will have to be the aggressor from the start. With the home side pushing the pace, look for the Suns to match that tempo. I am expecting a faster-paced, wide-open shootout in Game 3. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Canadiens/Knights. This has been a very defensive series so far. The first three games "pushed" on 5, while Game 4 went well under in the Knights' 2-1 win. We're all tied up heading back to Las Vegas now and with the shift in venue again, I'm finally expecting some pucks to find the back of the net tonight. Clearly, Marc-Andre Fleury and Carey Price have stolen the headlines in this series, but note that the Canadiens have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge an OT home loss to an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in. Vegas is No. 1 in the league defensively, conceding just 2.18 GPG. But it's also the No. 3 offensive team, averaging 3.39 GPG. The Knights' defense has been stymied to this point, but Montreal could be ripe for the picking here after its late collapse in Game 4. The Lightning/Islanders series was also a very defensive one up until Tampa's 8-0 blowout win last night. I say this series takes a similar turn here as well as far as the scoring is concerned. Look for a faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring Game 5. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-21 | Braves v. Mets OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the OVER Braves/Mets. These are two teams that have struggled with offensive consistency this year. They're facing two really good starting pitchers as well. They played a double-header yesterday and both of those contests fell "under" the posted number. Despite all of that though, I think this line is finally a bit too low and the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. Charlie Morton (6-3, 4.03 ERA) is coming off a strong start for the Braves, going 7.2 scoreless in a win over the Cardinals on Thursday. It was his first scoreless outing of the year. Morton has looked significantly better for his new team over the last month, but note that while he's 5-1 with a 3.80 ERA at home, he's just 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.42 ERA on the road. Marcus Stroman (6-5, 2.34) is coming off a hard-luck loss to the Cubs on Thursday, allowing just two runs over seven innings. It's difficult to say anything negative about Stroman, as he's been the Mets' most consistent starter this year, but I do believe he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. After getting held in check yesterday, I expect these still talented hitting line-ups to finally plate some runs today. In my opinion, this number is too low. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-21 | Scotland v. Croatia UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* EURO CUP TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Croatia/Scotland. Scotland drew were England nil-nil in its most recent match, while Croatia also ended with a 1-1 draw against the Czech Republic. Croatia is struggling offensively, and I don't expect that to change here vs. the defensive-minded Scots. Ivan Perisic scored the equalizer for Croatia against the Czech's, but finding the back of the net even once against Scotland could prove difficult. Croatia needs outside help and it needs to win to advance. The Tartan Army won't be rolling over though obviously. While a goalless draw isn't great for the fans, it has to be viewed as a victory by Scotland. However, Scotland has yet to find the back of the net in the Tournament, and that could once again be an issue here against this determined Croatia side. Croatia have been forced to cope without Rangers left-back Borna Barisic, and he's listed as questionable again this afternoon. Clearly that's not good for Croatia's attack. Scotland also got dealt a major blow with a positive COVID 19 test for Billy Gilmour. Yes, both teams are "desperate." But I don't think that fact is going to magically lead to a bunch of goals suddenly being scored here. In fact, I say it goes the other way, that these two defensive-minded clubs once again rely on their strength and wait for the other to make the first mistake. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -127 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 4 TOTAL is on the over Knights/Canadiens. This has been an evenly matched series. So far all three games have "pushed" on the O/U at 5, but in Game 4 I do finally predict more of a wide-open affair, as the favored Golden Knights look to control the tempo as to avoid a dreaded 1-3 hole. Vegas had a 2-1 lead heading into the final minutes of Game 3, before a late goal by Montreal, followed by the OT winner. Despite how the Canadiens ended up winning (whether you consider that a "lucky" victory or not), Montreal has played unbelieavably overall in the playoffs and I don't think it's getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers. Each team has experienced, World-class goaltenders and elite defenses, but note that the Knights have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last nine in trying to revenge an OT road loss to an opponent. I think Game 4 sets up great from a few different situational and trend based angles as being a faster-paced, higher-scoring contest. The play in Game 4 is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-21 | Poland v. Spain OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Euro Cup TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the OVER Spain/Poland. I expect plenty of balls to find the back of the net in this one. Spain can't be happy here after its goalless draw with Sweden on Monday. Poland will be out to atone for a 2-1 loss to Slovakia in its opening match. It wasn't from a lack of trying for Spain in its opening game, but it ran into a red hot keeper in Robin Olsen. With Slovakia up next, the Spaniards know they'll need to press the pace here and win convincingly. Poland's form is terrible, as it has just one win in its last eight matches. These teams haven't faced each other since 2010, and in that game Spain won 6-0. I don't expect such a lop-sided discrepancy here, but I do expect plenty of goals and a similar final combined score here between these two hungry sides. Considering the circumstances each side finds itself in, I believe this total is much too low. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the UNDER Knights/Canadiens. Both teams lead the playoffs in most offensive and defensive statistical categories. Both have World class goaltenders and in this important Game 3 contest, I believe they'll garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The past two games have gone under the number, with both defenses controlling the tempo and nothing is going to change here either. Marc-Andre Fleury and Carey Price are playing unbelievably right now and each has the ability to take over a game and a series. The Canadiens won't be out to push the pace here now that they have the advantage of being back at home. The last thing Montreal can clearly afford to do is to try and open things up and give these high-flying Knights any sort of momentum on the offensive end. Montreal has been incredibly disciplined throughout the playoffs, waiting for its opponent to make a mistake to then take advantage. Everything points to yet another highly-competitive, lower-scoring under in Game 3. Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Nets/Bucks. Depending on when you played Game 5's total, you either won, lost or pushed. It was close. Most would have pushed on the closing line. Regardless, this series has been a very low-scoring one. And that's surprising, because Milwaukee finished as the No. 1 offense in the league in regular season. Brooklyn finished near the bottom in almost every defensive category as well. I think Game 6 will be a wide-open affair. Milwaukee let a 17-point lead slip away in Game 5, so clearly it'll be out to atone for that mess-up, and that means playing hard for a full four quarters. Can Kevin Durant duplicate his historic performance from Game 5? KD has been unstoppable so far in this series and I can't see that trend changing here in this critical moment. Despite the injuries to Kyrie Irving and James Harden, the Nets role players are rallying and doing more than enough to support Durant. Harden has been cleared to play here, and he should be signficantly better after returning from injury and getting that first awkward game out of the way. Expect these two offensive-minded clubs to finally blast past this number with a competitive, higher-scoring Game 6. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-21 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | 14-3 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the UNDER Astros/Twins. Minnesota won 5-2 here yesterday, and I envision a similar final combined score in this one as well. The visiting side hands the ball to Framber Valdez (2-0, 1.47 ERA), who gave up one run off fiv ehits with no walks and eight strikouts over eight innings in a win over the Red Sox last Tuesday. Previous to that Valdez struck out ten. He's fresh and on fire and I don't see any reason not to believe that he can't keep the good times rolling here against this shaky Twins' offense. The home side counters with ace Michael Pineda (3-3, 3.46), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Yankees last Tuesday. Pineda had a forearm injury previous to that start, so that good news was that he's now back in 100% health for this start today. Also note that Pineda has done well in this spot for bettors, going 2-1 with a 2.83 ERA at home and 2-2 with a 2.76 ERA in all "day" games. I believe these competent starting pithers will garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-21 | Switzerland v. Wales OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* DEBUT TOTAL is on the OVER Wales/Switzerland. Both teams have hopes of reach at least the first knockout round, but Group A is a very tough one. It will be crucial for either of these hopeful sides to earn a win here, and as such, I'm expecting more of a wide-open game, rather than a slower-paced "chess match." Wales comes in with some momentum here, as it put together a five-game unbeaten streak in qualifying to finish runner-up to Croatia. Both teams are essentially going to be fighting for second place behind Italy. Switzerland lost to Poland in the round of 16 five years ago. It's won six games in a row and it held Span to a 1-1 draw ahead of that streak. Both teams are filled with talent and each is desperate for a victory to open. I say that results in goals, not a defensive affair. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-11-21 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 101 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
My 9* NL TOTAL VALUE is on the UNDER Padres/Mets. Yes, this total is low. But for good reason in my estimation. We don't have to look any further than these two World class starting pitchers to get the reasoning behind my play on this contest. Blake Snell (2-2, 4.83 ERA) gets the nod for the visiting side and he comes in off a really strong start against the Mets just last week, holding them scoreless over seven innings, allowing just one hit and striking out ten. Snell's been better at home than on the road this year, but disproportionately so. I thinnk that starts to correct and normalize here (note that he's 2-1 with a 3.89 ERA in all "night" games.) The home side counters with ace Jacob deGrom (5-2, 0.62 ERA), who has a tiny 0.57 WHIP and who dominated the Padres last weekend, posting 11 strikeouts and giving up zero runs over seven innings. New York struggles with offensive consistency, which is bad news facing the now red hot Snell. The Padres' offense is much more prolific, but this is a bad matchup, as evidenced by last week's result vs. deGrom. Look for these two capable starters to battle each other into the latter frames and for this total to ultimately fall under the posted number. Good luck...Larry |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 107 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the over Avs/Knights. Clearly, if Colorado is going to get back into this series and push it to a Game 7 back on home ice, it's going to have to generate offense and go on the attack from the opening face off, until the final horn. These are two of the best defense clubs in the league, but they're also both in the Top 10 on the offensive side. We've seen defensive affairs that have gone to extra periods in this series, and we've seen a couple of high-scoring blowouts as well. I think Game 6 is going to be competitive for sure, but I believe it'll be a higher-scoring contest with the Avs forced to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. The Knights are adept at playing any style of game. They're also very opportunistic. With the Colorado defense having to join the rush, it'll leave the visitors open on the backside more than normal. Colorado, I'll point out as well, has also seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine in trying to avenge back-to-back losses to an opponent. The stage is set for some offensive fireworks in Game 6. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Nuggets/Suns. Game 1 went under the number in the Suns 122-105 win, but I expect more of a defensive affair in Game 2. The Nuggets have been leaning on big man Nikola Jokic all season, and just yesterday he finally earned his first MVP award ever. Jokic and the Nuggets are going to be even extra motivated now to deliver an upset victory, before this series shifts back to Denver. The Suns played to four straight "unders" to open their series with the Lakers, but they've now seen the total go over in two straight. We know Phoenix can score, but the big difference this year for the Suns has been their progression on the defensive end. I think the Suns can duplicate their defensive performance from Game 1 here, although I think they'll have their hands full this time for a full four-quarters with an experienced and aggressive Denver defense. When I look at this game from a situational stand point, it definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair, than a run-and-gun shootout in my opinion. But note as well, Denver has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss of 15 or more points against an opponent. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Lightning/Hurricanes. It's do or die for Carolina. As good as the Hurricanes have looked all season and as much potential as they showed, they're clearly still no match for the defending champs. The Lightning have a big opportunity to end this series here and now, but clealry the Canes won't be going down without a fight. The first three games of this series were a tight defensive affair, but Game 4 turned into a shootout in the Lightning's 6-4 win. And one of the biggest reasons behind that was that the Hurricanes were forced to be the aggressor to try and get back into the series. They couldn't afford to play a defensive style of game and come out on top against the equally as defensive-minded Lightning, instead they had to push the pace from start to finish. And that's again the case here. And by pushing the pace with their defenseman in the offensive attack, it leaves Carolina open on the backend to this opportunistic Lightning offense. I say Game 5 will have a similar final combined score as what we saw in Game 4. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the OVER Clippers/Mavericks. This has been a highly entertaining series. Dallas has played better than most thought it would and it has a golden opportunity here to close out the Clippers. LA won't have the luxury here to sit back and play aggressive defense, instead it'll have to force the tempo here and outshoot this red hot Mavericks offense if it has any chance of extending this series to a seventh game. Situationally in my opinion, this one absolutely sets up as a "run-and-gun" shootout, rather than a grind it out "chess match."Â Each team is filled with offensive talent, and note that the Clippers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. With each team pushing the pace, look for this one to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The play is indeed the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-21 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 101 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
9* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the UNDER Nationals/Phillies. I'm expecting a bit of a "duel" here between the Nationals and Max Scherzer and the PHillies and Zack Wheeler. Washington lost 5-1 at home to the Braves yesterday, while Philadelphia has had two whole nights off after a 17-3 win at Cincinnati on June 1st. Scherzer (4-4, 2.34 ERA), gave up two runs while striking out ten over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Brewers on Sunday. To go along with his sparkling ERA, Scherzer also sports a tiny 0.82 WHIP over 69.1 innings of work. He's a big reason why I like this under today. His counterpart is Wheeler (2-0, 2.52 ERA), who gave up three runs while striking out 14 over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Rays on Saturday. Over 21.1 innings of work Wheeler owns a great 36/3 K/W. Wheeler is another big reason why I love this under. Look for these two red hot starting pitchers to battle in the latter frames, and as a result of that, expect this total to stay well under the posted number. Good luck...Larry |
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06-03-21 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
8* IL SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Rangers/Rockies. This game features the volatiel Mike Foltynewicz (1-5, 4.31 ERA) going for the Rangers, and Austin Gomber (3-5, 4.55) getting the nod for the home side. Gomber enters off a loss to the Pirates, allowing three runs over four innings. Somehow Gomber has posted an elite record at Coors Field, and struggled on the road, going 1-1 with a 1.91 ERA in Colorado, and 2-4 with a 5.44 ERA everywhere else. Coors Field though is the "Great Equalizer" when it comes to starting pitching and I expect regression here. Foltynewicz has for the most part struggled this season. He gave up two runs over seven innings and still lost to the Mariners in his last outing. The Rangers are a bad team. Texas has now lost eight in a row and it's seen the total go under in six straight. And that's worth nothing, as the Rangers have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight unders in a row. I have no faith in either of these starting pitchers and with each getting the hook early, we can finally expect this total to blast past the posted number. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks. After the Clippers fought from behind to take Game 3, this series has suddenly become a lot more interesting. The Mavericks rolled to two straight road victories in LA to open this series, but the Clippers dug deep and managed to earn the Game 3 victory. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George haven been fantastic for the Clippers, but it was LA's aggressive defensive play in the second half of Game 3 which was the difference-maker, and I do now expect the visitors to carry that momentum over here. Dallas is going to have to find a way to slow down Leonard and George, or their two-game advantage is going to slip away quickly. One thing to note is that the Mavericks have in fact seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenage a ten points or greater SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. While the last two games have flown over the number, Game 4 sets up as a defensive affair in my opinion. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
10* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Giants/Dodgers. This is the finale of a four-game series. The Dodgers took the first game by a score of 4-3, and that total went under the number, but San Francisco has taken the next two, winning 8-5 and 11-6. Both of those went well over the posted number. But with each team's "ace" on the hill tonight, I expect this total to fall under when it finishes. San Francisco hands the ball to Kevin Gausman (5-0, 1.53 ERA), who went five shutout innings in a victory over Arizona on Tuesday, striking out nine in the process. Over 64.2 innings of work, Gausman has conceded only 11 runs. LA looks to bounce back with Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.94) getting the start. Kershaw most recently allowed one run over eight innings in a win over Hosuton on Tuesday, walking no one and striking out six. To go along with his sharp ERA, he also sports a minuscule 0.90 WHIP and a 71/10 K/W over 64.1 innings of work. The Dodgers have also seen the total go under the number in seven of their last nine home games in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which they allowed ten or more runs in. I'm banking on these two World class starting pitchers to grab the majority of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
10* SLUG-FEST OF THE MONTH on the OVER Rangers/Mariners. While yesterday's game stayed under the posted total in Seattle's 3-2 win (I had a free play victory on the M's in that one), everything points to more of a "slug-fest" on Saturday. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Mike Foltynewicz (1-4, 4.53 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the season, going seven scoreless against Houston. Consistency from game-to-game has been Foltynewic's major issue the last couple of seasons though. Also note that he's a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 6.43 ERA in all "night" games this season. Justin Dunn (1-2, 3.40) gets the nod for the home side, and he most recently gave up one run over five innings in a no-decision against the Padres. Dunn has been effective, but he's struggled to go deep into games. Also note that he's 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in all "night" games. Texas has also seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for these starters to "get the hook" early, and then expect that to help in driving this total over the number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck...Larry |
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05-28-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the UNDER Marlins/Red Sox. I look for these two red hot "in form" starters to get the majority of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. This one has "duel" written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Cody Poteet (2-0, 1.06 ERA), who will look to help his team bounce back from yesterday's 3-2 defeat at home to the Phillies. Poteet just went seven scoreless against the Mets on Sunday, striking out four and allowing three hits. Over 17 innings of work he now has a sharp 13/2 K/W. Boston counters with Martin Perez (2-2, 3.55 ERA) who comes in off a strong win over Philadelphia in his last outing, allowing three runs and striking out seven over six innings. Perez has now allowed two or fewer runs in six straight starts and I expect him to continue to progress here vs. this "on again, off again" Marlins lineup. Note as well that the Fish have seen the total dip under the posted number in 11 of their last 17 interleague road games when the total is set between 9 or 9.5. As I mentioned right at the top, I expect these starters to dominate and battle into the latter frames. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-21 | Hurricanes v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 121 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Canes/Predators. Carolina is desperate to end this series, and Nashville is holding on for dear life. I expect this competitive game to produce some offensive fireworks this evening. Carolina has a 3-2 series lead now after snapping a two-game slide. So far home ice advantage has proved to be the difference-maker in this series and while that trend may or may not hold true again here, everything points to a wide-open one that's for sure in my opinion. The Hurricanes are averageing 3.5 GPG in the playoffs, and Nashville is going to have to match pace here if it wants to extend. Note as well that the Preds have averaged 4.5 goals per game at home here in their two playoff games. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to a high-scoring over in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-21 | Panthers v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Panthers/Lightning. Both teams are equally adept on both ends of the ice. Honestly, it wouldn't be terribly difficult to write a convincing argument for this total to go either way. So why is this total going to fly over the number? The Lightning will be out to atone for their lacklustre 4-1 loss last time out (it's interesting to note as well that the Bolts have seen the total go over in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in), and they'll absolutely want to avoid this series going to a decisive Game 7. The Panthers somehow managed to stifle this potent Lightning offense last time out, but they'll have to match pace with the home side here to once again avoid elimination. This isn't going to be a "chess match," it's going to be a "shoot-out" until the end. This one has over written all over it. Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the OVER Hawks/Knicks. Game 1 snuck UNDER the number, but I'm expecting a more wide-open affair in Game 2. Clearly, the Knicks will be laying everything on the line here to try and even up this series and before heading to Atlanta. The Hawks have to be thrilled that they've already earned a split, but they'll be out to prove it wasn't a fluke and to take a commanding grip on this series with another big effort here as well. New York is known for its defense, as it's ranked among the best in several categories The Knicks, however, are going to have to be the aggressors here from the opening tip until the final horn in Game 2. Julius Randle was held in check in Game 1, but I can't see that happening to the MIP of the year in back-to-back games (and it's interesting to note as well that the Knicks have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 105 points or fewer.) Atlanta got the win in Game 1 by the skin of its teeth, and that was with Randle having his worst performance of the season basically. Clearly, the Hawks can't be completely satisfied with their performance either. With the Knicks pushing the pace to try and even things up and to send a message to the Hawks before this series shifts to Atlanta, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 121 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the OVER Wild/Knights. The Knights are on the brink of moving on after moving to 2-1 in this series. The Wild have to get something going on the offensive end after getting shutout in Game 4. The Wild are struggling defensively now as well, as goaltender Cam Talbot has struggled mightily over the last three games. The Knights finished the regular season ranked third in goals per game, and fourth in shots per game. Yes, Vegas was also the No. 1 defense in the league, but a small letdown does seem imminent against a Wild team that it has its back against the wall, and which has seen the total fly over the posted number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout loss vs. an opponent. The stage is finally set for some offensive fireworks. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the OVER Bruins/Capitals. The last two games of this series have gone under the number, with Boston winning both. The Capitals return home with their backs against the wall, in need of a victory. Will that happen? Perhaps, but whether the Capitals can push this series another game or not, I absolutely expect more of a wide-open game, a pace which I see leading to plenty of pucks finding the back of the net. Washington has seen the total fly over the number in eight of its last 11 after three or more straight losses. The Capitals defense is crumbling around them, as they've conceded 11 goals over the last three games. Washington will be forced to have its defenseman join the attack today as well, which will leave it more vulnerable than ever on the back end to this opportunistic Bruins' offense. Situationally and also from a trend-based stand-point, this one has over written all over it. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Lakers/Suns. If the Lakers are going to win this series, they're going to grind down the Suns defensively and wear out Chris Paul and Devin Booker. They'll also try and establish their big men throughout. The Lakers come into the playoffs fully healthy. The Suns will also have to double down on the defensive end in this series if they want to be successful. Phoenix has always been known for its scoring, but the big turnaround this season has indeed been on the defensive end, as it's held its opposition to an effective field goal percentage of 53.4%, which ranks tenth overall. LA will look to grind out possessions in an attempt to control the pace and flow and to take the game out of Paul's hands. Defensive intensity tends to pick up in the playoffs (obviously), and these are two of the best in the league on that end of the floor. Game 1 has under written all over it. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-21 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
10* PITCHERS DUEL on the under Tigers/Royals. Considering the recent form of each of these starting pitchers, I think this posted total is definitely a little high. Yes, these teams are coming off back-to-back high-scoring affairs, with Detroit taking the first game in the three-game series by a score of 7-5, and then KC returning the favor with a 7-5 win, but everything points to more of a duel in the finale. The visiting side hands the ball to Casey Mize (3-3, 3.69 ERA), who conceded a single run off three hits to go along with seven strikeouts over eight innings in a victory over the Mariners on Monday. It wa shis second straight win, and as I stated off the top, "recent form" of these starting pitchers is a big reason behind this pick this afternoon. The home side counters with Kris Bubic (0-0, 0.96), who went six shutout innings against the Brewers in his last outing. Over 18.2 innings of work the 23-year old has a 14/9 K/W, and there's no reason not to think he can't carry that momentum over here in this favorable home matchup. Look for these starting pitchers to grab the majority of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 10 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* PITCHERS DUEL on the Red Sox/Jays under. We've seen some explosive scoring from these two teams this year, but everything points to more of a duel on Thursday in my opinion. Boston pulled away for a 7-3 win here yesterday and the total went over the number by a half-run. Toronto won the series opener 8-0. The road ahead doesn't get any easier for either side as well, as Toronto welcomes Tampa Bay to town tomorrow for a four-game weekend series, and that's followed by back-to-back road series at the Yankees and Indians. Boston hits the interleague portion of its schedule starting on Friday, with a road series in Philadelphia, followd by the Braves and Marlins at home. Regardless though, as I stated off the top, these two starting pitchers are poised for a classic duel in my opinion. The visitors go with Nick Pivetta (5-0, 3.16 ERA), who comes in off a no-decision to the Angels on Friday, allowing two runs and striking out seven over six innings. To go along with his solid ERA, Pivetta also sports a sharp 42/22 K/W over 42.2 innings of work. His counterpart is Steven Matz (5-2, 4.29) who comes in off five-scoreless vs. Philly on Friday, allowing four hits to go along with nine strikeouts. Matz now has a great 46/13 K/W over 42 innings. After a couple of shaky starts previous, Matz won't be taking anything for granted after his bounce-back outing. Look for these two capable starting pitchers to steal most of the headlines in Friday's game re-cap summary. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Warriors/Lakers. If the Warriors are going to win this game, they're going to have to try to somehow break down the Lakers tough perimeter defense and get some open shots from the outside. If the Lakers are going to win this game, they're going to play tough perimeter defense, and use their big men from start to finish while on offense. With the home side's offense being run through the paint, I do indeed expect a more methodical pace here. Golden State has plenty of great young talent in Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins, but they're both in unchartered territory here. The defending champs are back to full strength essentially and I expect them to send an early message to the Warriors, and the rest of the league. Clearly, Curry has to have a monster game for the Warriors to win, but I just can't see that happening against this stout Lakers defense. LA only averages 109.5 PPG, so it's definitely not like the Lakers are blowing out teams on a nightly basis either. LA won the last two games in this series handily and while that may or may not happen here, in my opinion everything points to the under as the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-21 | Astros v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER on the UNDER Astros/A's. While each side has played to a few "overs" of late, I think a classic pitchers duel is in order on Wednesday night. Houston has seen the total soar above the posted number in four straight, including in yesterday's 6-5 series opening loss here yesterday. Oakland has now seen the total go over in three straight. Two capable starting pitchers go head-to-head on Wednesday though and everything points to the under as the correct move. Zack Greinke (3-1, 4.18 ERA), is getting progressively better with each outing so far in 2021, most recently allowing three run and striking out five over seven innings in a victory over the Rangers on Friday. Through 51.2 innings of work the veteran now sports a sharp 40/11 K/W. His counterpart tonight is Frankie Montas (5-2, 4.93), who comes in off his best start of the year, allowing one run over six innings in a victory over the Twins. There's no reason not to think he can't carry that momentum over here. One last thing I'll point out is that the Astros have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 12 after seeing the total go over in four or more straight games in a row. Look for this one to stay well under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
10* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Rockies/Padres. San Diego won 7-0 yesterday, and the total went over the number by a 0.5 run. Linesmakers don't set Padres lines high very often, and tonight's game is no exception. While San Diego has seen the total go over in four straight, I think tonight's contest will fall below it. The Rockies put up big numbers at home, but Coors Field is a "hitters" park. Over their last two games on the road, they've put up a total of zero runs, losing 2-0 in St. Louis in their previous road contest back on May 9th. Not surprisingly, Colorado is a terrible 2-15 on the road this season. Austin Gomber (2-4, 5.49 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he faced these very Friars in his last start, giving up one run while striking out six over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. The Padres counter with Blake Snell (1-0, 4.19) who gave up two runs over four innings, striking out seven to the Rockies in last week's double-header, taking a no-decision as well. Snell has 49 strikeouts over 34.1 innings of work thus far. I'm expecting these capable starting pitchers to battle into the latter frames and I believe that'll ultimately help in driving this total under the posted number. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Wild/Knights. Two of the best defensive clubs in the league skated to a low-scoring 1-0 extra-periods decision in Game 1, but I believe Game 2 will be much more wide-open and ultimately higher-scoring. It takes a lot of energy to constantly back check and block pucks and after that defensive affair for the ages, I think we'll see a completely different flow to Game 2. Note that Vegas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last eight after getting shutout in its previous contest. Minnesota has seen the total soar over the number in six of its last eight after a shutout victory in which it scored two or less goals in. Look for the offenses to be a step ahead in this one. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-21 | Giants v. Reds UNDER 8 | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
8* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Giants/Reds. The Reds are 9-12 on the road this year, but they're coming off a high-scoring 7-6 win over Colorado just last night. Cincinnati scored four runs in the eighth and two in the ninth to secure the one run victory, and while it's now seen the total go over in four straight, I think a return to friendly confines will see a lower-scoring "duel" for the home side finally. The Giants have seen the total go under in five of their last six, including in their 4-1 win at Pittsburgh yesterday. Sonny Gray (0-2, 3.55 ERA) will be "hungry" for his first win of the season here. He most recently allowed one run over 4.2 innings, while also striking out five in a no-decision vs. the Pirates last Wednesday. Over 25.1 innings of work, Gray has a sharp 36/12 K/W (five starts.) Logan Webb (2-3, 4.74) will look to carry over the momentum from his best start of the season, allowing two runs (only one earned), off three hits and two walks over six innings to go along with ten strikeouts in a victory over the Rangers. Here are two teams that struggle with offensive consistency, facing two pitchers that are throwing at their highest-level of the season thus far. When you add up all those factors, the correct call as far as the total is concerned is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-21 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
8* SLUG-FEST on the OVER Giants/Pirates. Neither club is known for its offensive prowess. Pittsburgh won 3-2 yesterday, snapping the Giants three-game win streak. San Francisco has now seen the total dip under in four straight, but with revenge on its mind here, I'm expecting a much bigger offensive output from the visiting side. And the home side has a golden opportunity to build off its win yesterday, as it faces the volatile Johnny Cueto, who is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA, but who was just rocked for five earned runs off eight hits with one walk over three innings in a loss to the Padres. Cueto's early numbers are completely unrealistic, and further regression is imminent for the 35 year old in my opinion. Tyler Anderson gave up two runs over eight innings in a win over the Cubs in his last outing. He's just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.57 ERA in seven career starts vs. San Francisco. I look for each starter to get the "hook" early, and then expect that to help in driving this total well over once its all said and done. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-21 | Celtics v. Wolves OVER 229.5 | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER On the OVER Twolves. The Celtics have lost five of their last six. They finish up their season in Washington, but I don't think they'll go down without a fight here vs. the Wolves. Boston is dealing with several key injury issues, but despite that I think this total will soar well over. Boston will be out to atone for a poor 102-94 road loss in Cleveland. Minnesota though would love nothing more than to earn a few more victories before the season ends. The Wolves have been hampered by injury all season, but they're healthier now than they've been all year. They've won six of their last ten and I believe they'll be out to control the tempo here, which means pushing the pace from start to finish. Finally, note that the over is 5-0 the last five in this series. I don't expect defense to be a concern for either team today. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-21 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL SLUG-FEST on the OVER Cubs/Indians. Cleveland held on for a tight 3-2 win over the Cubs. After a slow start the Tribe come in red hot, as they've won eight of their last ten, including two in a row. Interestingly, they've been trading Overs and Unders over their last five games and off the lower-scoring victory yesterday, everything points to this pattern continuing today. The Cubs will be looking to get back on track here, as they've now lost back-to-back games after a five-game win streak. But the bottom line is on this total, I don't at all trust either of these starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Zach Davies (2-2, 6.30 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the year, going seven scoreless vs. the Pirates on Friday. He wasn't even able to get a decision for his effort. While he's been better of late, note that he's still a devastating 0-1 with a 12.86 ERA on the road this season. Sam Hentges (1-0, 5.00) last start was postponed. So far he's give up five runs off 11 hits over two outings. Suffice it to say, I expect Hentges to "get the hook" early today. As stated off the top, starting pitching is a major issue for both teams today. Expect that to translate into offensive production. The play is the over. Good luck, Larry |
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05-09-21 | Rockies v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* NL Total of the Month is on Col/STL Over at 2:15 ET. The Colorado Rockies and the St Louis Cardinals complete a three-game series Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium. The Cards go for a three-game sweep, after winning 5-0 and 9-8. The Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record. It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. St Louis was just 8-10 through April 21 but a 12-4 run has them atop the NL Central at 20-14. The Rockies were just 26-34 in 2020, after a 71-91 mark in 2019. The current season has NOT gone well, as the Rockies are currently 12-21 (worst record in the NL) and the team's 2-13 road mark is the worst in all of MLB. Taking the mound in the series finale will be Colorado's German Marquez (1-3, 6.21 ERA) and for St Louis it will be veteran Adam Wainwright (1-3, 4.72 ERA). Marquez is looking to bounce back from a disastrous outing this past Tuesday against San Francisco when he allowed EIGHT runs on six hits and two walks while retiring just two batters in a 12-4 loss to the Giants. Wainwright is coming off of his second-worst outing of the year, allowing five runs on seven hits, three walks and a hit batter in 5.2 innings (note: he was able to get a win in the Cards' 6-5 win!). Wainwright is 10-1 with a 1.56 ERA in 15 career outings against the Rockies, including 11 starts (team is 9-2). However, Wainwright is no longer that pitcher. The over/under number is modest (7 1/2) and note the following. Marquez has made three daytime starts in 2021, lasting just 10.1 innings while allowing 18 hits, 11 walks and 12 ERs. That gives him a 10.45 ERA, with opponents batting .409 against him. Now to Wainwright. He's also made three daytime starts and has lasted only 12.2 innings, 19 hits and 10Ers. His ERA is 7.11 and opponents have batted .333 against him. This one is Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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04-22-21 | Pirates v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Afternoon Delight is on Pit/Det Over at 1:10 ET. The Pirates opened the 2021 season having missed the playoffs the previous FIVE season, coming off back-to-back seasons of playing .396 baseball (88-134). Pittsburgh has nothing on Detroit, which has missed the last SIX postseasons, finishing below .400 in FOUR of them. The teams split a doubleheader on Wednesday (Tuesday's game was postponed) and will cap this three-game series this afternoon. Pittsburgh is 8-10 and Detroit 7-11, after its 5-2 (7 inn) win in the second-half of Wednesday's doubleheader snapped a FIVE-game slide. Both teams struggle offensively, as the Pirates are averaging just 3.89 RPG (23rd) and the Tigers averaging 3.44 RPG (28th). As for their pitching staffs, Pittsburgh's team ERA of 4.91 ranks 29th and Detroit's team ERA of 4.95 ranks last (30th). Pittsburgh will send Mitch Keller (1-2, 8.74 ERA) to the mound, while Detroit counters with Jose Urena (0-3, 5.52 ERA). Keller's first MLB season was 2019 and he's made just 19 career starts, going 3-8 (team is only 5-14). He has not made it past the fifth inning in any of his three starts of 2021 and owns an 'ugly' 2.12 WHIP to go along with his 8.74 ERA, as opponents are batting .333 against him. His career numbers (19 starts) reveal a 6.22 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and .300 BAA. Urena spent his first six seasons with Miami and this is his first with Detroit. Urena struggled badly in his first two starts of 2021 (7 ERs allowed in 7.2 IP) but had a strong outing last Friday at Oakland (2 ERs allowed over 7 innings). That said, his ERA is 5.52 and his WHIP 1.70 entering this game in 2021. Looking back at his career, if one were to exclude his 14-7 record in 2017, his career record is 18-42 and his ERA in 4.98. Two struggling pitching staffs sending two struggling starters to the mound (also note that Detroit also owns the highest bullpen ERA of 6.56 in MLB) equals an OVER! Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-21 | Brewers v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Total of the Week is on Mil/SD Over at 4:10 ET. The San Diego Padres were expected to give the LA Dodgers a run for their money' in 2021 but with a four-game series in LA looming Thursday through Sunday, the Padres are just 10-9, while the Dodgers are 14-4. The Padres were able to avoid a three-game sweep at home this past Sunday against the Dodgers with a 5-2 win but have now lost the first two contests of this three-game home series with the Brewers, scoring just ONE run in losses on Monday and Tuesday. The visiting 10-7 (.588) Milwaukee Brewers shoot for a three-game sweep Wednesday afternoon, just percentage points behind the 9-6 Cincinnati Reds (.600) in the NL Central. Milwaukee's team ERA is 2.75 (3rd) and its WHIP is 1.03 (2nd). San Diego's team ERA is 2.50 and its WHIP is 1.01, 1st in both categories in MLB. Adrian Houser (1-2, 3.14 ERA) will start for the Brewers, while Dinelson Lamet will make his 2021 debut for the Padres. Houser is a modest 8-15 in 60 career appearances (32 starts) with a 4.06 ERA and was a poor 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 3.14 ERA in three 2021 starts is solid but his 1.54 WHIP is troublesome. Lamet was 3-1 in 12 starts (Padres were 10-2) last season with a 2.09 ERA, an 0.86 WHIP and a .161 opponents' batting average (93-20 KW ratio). Clearly, Lamet's pitching helped the Padres end a 13-year postseason drought in 2020 but he left his final regular-season start clutching the elbow that underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018. He did not pitch in the 2020 playoffs and has been brought along slowly in spring training while rehabbing his elbow (no more surgery). This marks his first appearance since September 25th of last season. What to expect? This over/number is VERY low and I expect the Padres to avoid the home sweep by "getting to" the so-so Houser. I'm willing to play the over in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-19-21 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Goin' Over Total is on SF/Phi Over at 7:05 ET. The Giants finished just ONE game out of a spot in the expanded playoffs during Gabe Kapler's first season after he replaced the retiring Bruce Bochy. San Francisco didn't make any major moves this offseason but got Buster Posey back behind the plate after he opted out of the 2020 season. San Francisco re-signed Kevin Gausman (more in a bit) and added Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Aaron Sanchez to bolster the rotation. Kinda brings back memories of Glavive, Maddux and Smoltz. Meanwhile, the Phillies opened the 2021 season seeking their first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The teams begin a three-game series tonight in Philadelphia, with the Giants checking in at 9-6 and the Phillies at 8-7. The Giants are 9-6, despite an offense that ranks 29th in runs scored (3.27 per game) and in team BA (.205). The Phillies' offense isn't much better, averaging 3.80 RPG (22nd) with a .236 BA (13th). So why go over? The fact is, I think BOTH starters are very vulnerable (Gausman for SF and Anderson for Phi). The Giants re-signed Gausman and one wonders what they expect from him. He entered the season having made 203 big league appearances (164 starts) with a 50-66 record and 4.31 ERA. He's NEVER had a winning season in eight years. He surprised me with two solid starts(13.2 IP / 2 ERs) in 2021 but at home vs Cincy (4/13), allowed five ERs in six innings. He's made four career starts vs Philly, going 0-3 (team is 1-3) with a 6.45 ERA. The 33-year-old Anderson finished 53-40 with a 3.94 ERA in 166 appearances with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers from 2014-19. He did go 29-16 with a 3.63 ERA from 2017-19 with Milwaukee but was awful for Toronto in 2020, with a 7.22 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .315 BAA in 10 appearances (seven starts). His first two starts of 2021 have come against the Mets and he's pitched just nine innings, allowing four ERs. He is 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA in nine starts (teams are 5-4) vs the Giants. I don't expect a slugfest but I do expect at least one starter (hopefully both) to struggle. It's Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* AL Total of the Month is on Hou/Sea Over at 10:10 ET. The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 21-39 in 2020 but made the expanded postseason and went on a run. The Astros eliminated the Twins 2-0 in the wild card run, beat the A's 3-1 in the ALDS and then took the Rays to Game 7 in the ALCS, after losing the first three games of that series. Seattle went 89-73 in 2018 but followed by falling to 68-94 in 2019 and then went 27-33 in last season's 60-game schedule. However, Seattle entered 2021 with expectations that it could make a run at this year's postseason. The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners meet Friday at T-Mobile Park for the first of a three-game series. Houston opened the season 4-0 and 6-1 but 'limp' into Seattle on a FIVE-game losing streak that has them back at .500 (6-6). Seattle went 3-3 on a six-game homestand to begin the 2021 season but returns home off what was expected to be a nine-game road trip. Seattle lost the first game of the trip but while two games were postponed, the Mariners won FIVE of their last six games on the trip! Jose Urquidy will get the ball for Houston, while Yusei Kikuchi starts for Seattle. Urquidy has made 14 appearances (12 starts) for Houston the last two seasons, posting a 3.44 ERA. However, he's allowed six ERs over 10.1 innings (5.23 ERA) in his first two starts of 2021. Kikuchi has had two decent starts in 2021 but in his 43 career starts, owns an 8-15 record with a 5.30 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. In five career starts vs Houston, he's 0-2 (team is 1-4) with a 6.46 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. The Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 meetings in Seattle and 40-14 in their last 54 overall meetings with the Mariners. The Houston bats are due to explode and why not here vs Kikuchi? On the flip side, Seattle should have little trouble "getting to" Urquidy. It's Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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04-15-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
 My 10* NL Total of the is Month on Col/LAD Over at 10:10 ET. The Colorado Rockies take the field tonight at Dodger Stadium looking to snap a five-game losing streak. The Rockies have lost the first three contests of this four-game series against the Dodgers, scoring just TWO runs in the process. In fact, in the teams' FIVE-game slide, the Rockies have scored three or less runs in ALL five. Few need be reminded that the Dodgers owned MLB's best record in 2020 (43-17), on their way to winning the franchise's first World Series since 1988. Los Angeles looks to sweep Colorado here, improving on its MLB-best 10-2 record. Some may ask, "Why play the over considering Colorado's offensive woes?" Here's why. The Dodgers have scored 14 runs in their last three games and four or more runs NINE of their 12 games on the season. The Dodgers are averaging 5.67 RPG (3rd-best in all of MLB) plus lead all of MLB in team BA (.285) and OPS (.873). LA will face Colorado's Austin Gomber, who has a 2.89 ERA in two starts in 2021 but has lasted a total of just 9.1 innings. He's made three career starts vs LA, lasting only 11 innings while allowing 10 ERs for an 8.18 ERA and a just as ugly WHIP of 2.46. Expecting more than four or five innings from Gomber is a stretch, which means Colorado's bullpen will be called on and it owns the NL's highest ERA (5.32) and WHIP (1.67). Julio Urias gets the ball for the Dodgers and after posting back-to-back solid seasons in 2019 (2.49 ERA in a 37 appearances/10 starts) and 2020 (3.27 ERA in 11 appearances/10 starts), he's 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP to open the 2021 season. However, while the Dodgers are 6-2 in his EIGHT career starts vs Colorado, his ERA is an unimpressive 5.24. The Dodgers are capable of "going over" this number by themselves but the Colorado bats can't stay 'silent' forever. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 11 | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* "Thunder Down Under" Total is on the LAA/Tor Under at 7:07 ET. Shohei Ohtani had a three-run double and a solo HE Friday as the Angels defeated the Blue Jays 7-1 (Angels have won 12 of their past 15 games against the Blue Jays).The Angels have won the first two games of this four-game series and have matched a franchise best with their 6-2 start, having won six of their first eight games just TWICE before. It should be pointed out that the Angels entered the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Toronto made back-to-back appearances in the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 but three losing seasons followed, before the Blue Jays surprised all going 32-28 in 2020. However, Toronto was eliminated by Tampa Bay 2-0 in a best-of-three series. The Blue Jays are 3-5 to open the 2021 season. The Angels will start left-hander Jose Quintana (0-0, 10.80 ERA) on Saturday and he'll square off against Toronto left-hander Steven Matz (1-0, 1.42 ERA).Quintana was AWFUL in his Angels debut (3.1 IP / 4 ERs), after signing as a free agent after nine years in Chicago, 5 1/2 with the White Sox and 3 1/2 with the Cubs. Quintana was limited to just four games (one start) and 10 innings last season because of a freak injury when he cut his thumb while washing dishes. He ultimately had surgery on the thumb and missed two months. Quintana pitched for Joe Maddon in 2017-19 with the Cubs. "He's a guy who normally eats up innings," Maddon said. "He has a repeatable, compact delivery and a nice arm stroke. His success, to me, relies on good game planning. He just needs a little direction on how to attack people ... how to use the really good stuff he already has." In contrast, Matz was impressive in his Blue Jays debut April 5 at Arlington, Texas, when he struck out nine (just one walk) and allowed one ER in 6.1 innings. The Mets expected "big things" from Matz but he never delivered. He was 0-5 with a 9.68 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in 2020 (nine appearances / six starts). The Mets had seen enough and traded Matz to Toronto Blue on January 27, 2021. That said, he sure showed well in his first start. I have a feeling this guy has more than a little talent. As for Quintana, he's been an effective starter for parts of his MLB career. It sure doesn't hurt that Quintana is 7-2 with a 1.88 ERA and 61 strikeouts. He ranks second all-time in ERA among pitchers to make at least 10 career starts against Toronto. The Toronto team that Quintana faces on Saturday, has averaged just 3.3 PG through eight starts but also owns a team ERA of 3.38 in 2020. It's Goin' Under! Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* MLB "Thunder Down Under" Total is on LAD/Col Under at 8:10 ET. The Dodgers won the 2020 World Series, the franchise's first since 1988 and return in 2021 as the favorite to "win it all," again. LA opens the season with a four-game series at Coors Field and Colorado won the series opener 8-5 on Thursday, before LA rebounded with an 11-6 win on Friday night. LA had 15 hits but scored just five runs on Thursday, because they went just 3-16 with RISP. That changed on Friday, as LA's 16 hits netted 11 runs, as the Dodgers improved to 8-18 with RISP. The Rockies were consistent in both games, scoring eight runs 0n 11 hits Thursday and then six runs on eight hits Friday. The first two games of the series have averaged 15.0 RPG and is that what we should expect again on Saturday? My vote (bet) is N-O! Walker Buehler is 24-9 in his short career but has the stuff of an ace. He owns a .727 win percentage in 70 appearances (61 starts) with a 3.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a 420-93 KW ratio. Jon Gray has had an up-and-down career with the Rockies (45-37 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.34 WHIP), showing signs of being an ace and at other times searching for consistency. That said, he's has some success against the Dodgers, most notably at Coors Field where he is 4-1 with a 3.48 ERA in nine starts against them. In a hitter-friendly park, he has held Los Angeles to a .249 batting average and a .413 slugging percentage. This one stays under the double-digit over/under number. Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Division (AL East) Goin' Over Total is on Tor/NYY Over at 1:05 ET. The New York Yankees welcomed 10,850 fans back in the stands for Opening Day on Thursday but other than Gary Sanchez's two-run HR, there were NO offensive highlights, as the Yanks lost 3-2 (10 innings) to the Toronto Blue jays. Actually, that's an UNDERSTATEMENT, as New York struck out 13 times, went 0-9 with RISP and 3-for-19 with runners on. Toronto's Hyun-Jin Ryu allowed just two runs over 5.1 innings, before five Toronto relievers pitched 4.2 scoreless innings (allowed just two hits and had eight Ks). The teams didn't play Friday and Saturday's starting pitchers will be Ross Stripling and Corey Kluber. Stripling made five appearances (two starts) for Toronto last season after a trade from the Los Angeles Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in just 15.2 innings. He is 0-2 with 4.50 ERA in three career relief appearances against the Yankees. New York counters with Corey Kluber, who will make his debut for the Yankees after signing a one-year contract. Kluber won Cy Young awards in 2014 and 2017 with Cleveland but after a 20-7 (2.89 ERA) in 2018, Kluber's arm/shoulder issues have taken over. He made just seven starts (5.80 ERA / 1.65 WHIP) for Cleveland in 2019 and then pitched ONE inning for the Texas Rangers last season before injuring his shoulder. I fully expect the New York lineup to bounce back from Thursday's opener and will note that New York averaged 6.3 RPG in home games vs righthanders in 2020. The Blue Jays' home/away numbers are somewhat skewed by the fact that they couldn't play in Toronto but in 40 games vs righties, they averaged 5.2 RPG, including 5.6 RPG in 20 days games. What to expect from Kluber? Who really knows but the Blue Jays beefed up a young, talented team by adding several playoff-tested veterans in a busy offseason. George Springer (Houston) signed a team-record $150 million, six-year deal, and Marcus Semien (Oakland) joined on an $18 million, one-year deal. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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01-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rams OVER 40.5 | Top | 7-18 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Featured Sunday Total is on Arz/LAR Over at 4:25 ET. The short-handed LA Rams (9-6) are home in Week 17 against NFC West rival Arizona (8-7). While the Rams are one game better than the Cardinals, they need a victory or a Chicago Bears (8-7) loss to the Green Bay Packers to make the playoff field. Meanwhile, the Cards are in a true win-or-go-home scenario. Beat the Rams and they are in the postseason for the first time since 2015. Lose, and the off season begins Sunday night. The Cardinals were dealt a blow last week when they were completely taken out of their game in a 20-12 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. The defeat came after consecutive victories over the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. QB Kyler Murray sustained a right leg injury on his final pass attempt Sunday but he WON'T miss here. "Yeah, I'll be playing," Murray said. "There's no holding back. If we lose, I'll be home chillin'. It's my leg. I'm fine. It's an opportunity that only we could ask for. It's an opportunity to play in the playoffs, get in and we're right where we want to be with everything that has happened this year." Murray's had a superb 'sophomore' season, completing 67.1% for 3,884 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs. He also has 816 rushing yards (on 6.2 YPC) with 11 TDs. RB Drake has blossomed in 2020 (919 yards and 10 TDs), giving Arizona the third-best running game in the league at 145.9 YPG. The Cardinals' defense has been outstanding at putting pressure on opposing QBs over the past three weeks. The "D" has 17 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, eight forced fumbles and 24 QB hits over that span. However, the defense has struggled overall, since Week 7. The Cards allowed just 18.7 PPG through their first six games but over their last nine, have allowed 28.7 (easy to see that's 10 more PPG!). The Rams will be without QB Jared Goff, who sustained a thumb injury last Sunday at Seattle and underwent surgery. John Wolford, who has not taken a snap in a regular-season game, is scheduled to start for a team that has lost consecutive games. What's more, WR Cooper Kupp (92 catches / TDs) tested positive for COVID-19 and is out. Those are not the only issues the Rams are dealing with, as RB Darrell Henderson (high ankle sprain) is out while RB Malcolm Brown (shoulder) has been limited at practice. Rookie RB Cam Akers (ankle) will try to get back on the field after not playing against the Seahawks. The LA defense has been terrific all season, allowing 19.3 PGG (3rd) on 286.5 PPG (1st). The situation looks dire for LA but head coach Sean McVay said, "I believe in this team. I trust in their mental toughness and I think that the overarching message is let's put everything that we have into this. Let's not be afraid to put it all out there one more time. Get back up off the mat and keep swinging and have no regrets no matter how this thing ends up." Recent history is sure on LA's side, as the Rams are on a perfect 7-0 SU & ATS run against the Cardinals (average MOV 21 points!), including a 38-28 victory in the desert (Week 13). We don't see over/under numbers this low very often and I'm expecting an excellent game from Murray and for the make-shift LA offense to score against an Arizona D which has been giving up plenty of points since late-October. Go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic play is on Pit/Cin Over at 8:15 ET. NFL Week 15 concludes with the Steelers looking to break a two-game losing streak (after an 11-0 start) with a MNF contest in Cincinnati against the 2-10-1 Bengals. With the KC Chiefs moving to 13-1 with a win at New Orleans on Sunday and the Buffalo Bills moving to 11-3 with a Saturday win at Denver, the Steelers BADLY need a win here to move to 12-2. The Bengals should play "the perfect foil" but the Steelers can make a quick call to the Rams and ask how their game with the 0-13 Jets went on Sunday? Spoiler Alert, the Jets (+17) won 23-20 at the Rams, who fell out of first-place in the NFC West. The Bengals have scored just nine, seven and seven points in the three games since rookie QB Joe Burrow was lost for the season but also note that the Steelers have averaged only 18.0 PPG over their last three games, a 19-14 win over the COVID-ravaged Ravens plus back-to-back losses to Washington and Buffalo. The Steelers could have clinched the AFC North if the Browns had lost Sunday night at the Giants but Pittsburgh got NO help from the Giants, as the Browns won 20-6. As noted above, the Steelers' offense had 'ground to a halt' and questions have swirled around veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger and whether he is reaching the end of his career after the Steelers have come to rely on the passing game but almost exclusively without throwing downfield. Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner said it has been difficult to work on the offense with three games in a 12-day span that ended with Sunday night's 26-15 loss at Buffalo. However, the Steelers haven't played since a week ago Sunday and I'm expecting Big Ben to have a HUGE game. After all, Big Ben has completed 66.2% for 3,292 yards with 29 TDs and just nine INTs on the season. Really, people are worried? The last time he faced the Bengals, he passed for 333 yards with four TDs (no INTs) in a 36-10 win. The running game doesn't do much of anything (89.1 YPG ranks 31st) but four WRs contribute plus TE Ebron has 51 catches and four TDs. Back to the WRs, it's Smith-Schuster 79 catches (7 TDs), Johnson with 69 catches (5 TDs), rookie Claypool with 50 catches (8 TDs) and Washington with just 28 catches but 5 TDs. Cincy backup QB Brandon Allen (27 of 36 for 217 yards with one TD and no INTs last week) is nursing a knee injury and after starting the last three games for the Bengals, will give way to Ryan Finley (rookie from NC St), who will start against the Steelers, Finley has taken the first-team reps with the Bengals' offense in practice this week said head coach Zac Taylor on Saturday. Finley will have to face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks first in points allowed (18.2 PPG) on 303.1 YPG (3rd) and will NOT get any help from a running game averaging 92.3 YPG (30th). He does have a nice trio of WRs in Boyd (78 catches), Higgins (58) and the vet Green (41 catches). My "over" call is not based on Cincy matching scores with Pittsburgh but rather with the Steelers' offense delivering a 'breakout' performance and for the Bengals to 'chip in' a couple of TDs, maybe even 17-plus points. Pittsburgh has won 10 straight in this series and make it 11 straight with the contest Goin' Over "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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12-12-20 | San Diego State v. BYU OVER 47 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 46 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Total of the Month is on SD St/BYU Over at 10:00 ET. BYU was ranked no. 8 in the AP poll when the first CFP standings were released and the Cougars found themselves at No. 14. The second CFP rankings saw them move up just one spot, so when the chance came to replace Liberty in its game at Coastal Carolina last Saturday, BYU jumped at the chance with little prep time. The gamble didn't pan out, as the Cougars were held to season-lows of 17 points and yards in the 22-17 loss. The 9-1 Cougars (now No. 18 in the CFP standings) will complete its season by hosting the 4-3 San Diego St Aztecs, looking to secure its first 10-win season since 2011. SD State entered the current season having won 10-plus games in four of its last five years The Aztecs opened 3-1 but then lost 26-21 at Nevada on Nov 21. The team's game with Fresno St on Nov 27 was canceled early in the week and SDSU hastily arranged a game in Boulder against Colorado but lost 20-10. SD State rebounded with a 29-17 win over a 1-5 Colorado St team last Saturday. SDSU's defense was great last season, allowing 12.7 PPG on only 288.0 YPG and has posted similar numbers in 2020 (16.3 PPG ranks 8th and 269.6 YPG ranks 3rd). However, San Diego State is just 104th in total offense (343.9 YPG) in averaging 26.1 PPG and it faces a BYU defense that rates fourth in scoring defense (14.7 PPG) and seventh in total defense (300.0 YPG). Head coach Brady Hoke said QB Jordon Brookshire will make his second straight start, after he completed 14 of 24 passes for 130 yards (one TD / one INT) in last Saturday's 29-17 win over Colorado State. RB Greg Bell (team-high 569 rushing yards on 5.9 YPC with six TDs ) has been slowed by an ankle injury but is said to be getting closer to full health. The Aztecs shut down BYU in last season's 13-3 in San Diego but they are catching the Cougars at the WRONG time and WRONG place. QB Zach Wilson has had a terrific season (73.0% with 27 TDs and just three INTs) but is coming off his worst game of the season against the Chanticleers. He threw for only 240 yards with one TD and one INT, giving him a season-worst, single-game QB rating of 134.9 (it's 197.4 on the season). He has two excellent WRs in Milne (55 catches / 18.4 YPC / 7 TDs) and Romney (38 catches / 19.9 YPC) plus TE Rex has eight TD catches among his 27 catches. Even after the Coastal Carolina game, BYU is averaging a whopping 44.5 PPG on 525.0 YPG. BYU had topped 40 points in FIVE straight games and EIGHT of nine before scoring only 17 in the loss to the Chanticleers. I realize SDSU has a quality D but I fully expect the Cougars to 'take out' last Saturday's loss on the Aztecs. San Diego State is just 2-16 all-time at LaVell Edwards Stadium and expect 40 points (maybe more more) from BYU making this a prime spot to go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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12-05-20 | Wyoming v. New Mexico OVER 51.5 | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on Wyoming/New Mexico Over at 1):30 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 8:00 ET Saturday morning. |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 44 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Featured" Sunday Total of the week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET. The Miami Dolphins had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 20-13 loss in Denver last Sunday but look (expect?) to get back on track Sunday at MetLife Stadium when they face the 0-10 NY Jets, The Jets have lost 10 straight games in the same season for the first time in club history and they are two losses from matching their longest losing streak ever, a 12-game skid that bridged the 1995-96 seasons. The two AFC East rivals met in Miami back on Oct 24, with the Dolphins winning 24-0. Tua Tagovailoa was sacked SIX times last Sunday before being benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who started against the Jets the last time the teams met. Tagovailoa came in late during that game and has been Miami's starter since. However, Tagovailoa injured the thumb on his throwing hand in practice during the week. He was originally downgraded from questionable to doubtful for Sunday's game but on Saturday afternoon, the Jets said that veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick would start. He was completing 69.8% when he was benched with 10 TDs and eight INTs. Miami owns an awful running game, averaging 94.4 YPG (30th), with Myles Gaskins (despite playing in only seven games) leading the team with 387 yards on 3.9 YPC with two TDs. He also has 30 catches, second-most on the team. WR Parker leads with 44 catches and four TDs, while TE Gesicki has 28 receptions (14.8 YPC) with two TDs. Interestingly, while the offense is averaging just 308.6 YPG (29th), the Dolphins are averaging 26.5 PPG (14th). The defense allows 380.6 YPG (21st) but allows a surprisingly low 26.4 PPG (4th). The Jets also have a change at QB, as Sam Darnold is healthy enough to start, after missing two games with an injured right shoulder. The Jets run the ball no better than the Dolphins, averaging 98.6 YPG on the ground (25th). Leading the way is Frank Gore (447 yards), who is closing in being 100-years-old. However, the real good news is that this game will mark the first time this season Darnold would take the field with all three of his starting WRs, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims. The Jets enter the game last in scoring (14.9 PPG) and in total offense (268.6 YPG). Then there is a defense that allows 30.2 PPG (31st) on 400.0 YPG (28th). Fitzpatrick was NONE too happy about being benched and the Jets defense may give him every opportunity to deliver a "big game." It doesn't hurt that the Jets are one of the MANY teams he once played for. As for the Jets, Darnold should love the fact that his WR starters are back and let's NOT ignore that while the Jets have continued to lose, they have scored 27 and 28 points in their last two games. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-28-20 | Kansas State v. Baylor OVER 45 | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 60 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on Kansas St/Baylor Over at 7:00 ET. Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but then beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960. The win over the Sooners jump started a four-game winning streak but the Wildcats enter this game having lost THREE in a row, including last Saturday's 45-0 embarrassment at Iowa St. The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field Sep 26 with a 47-14 home win over Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in that win over Kansas. However, Baylor has lost FIVE straight games! Both teams 'limp' into this contest in Waco. K-State hasn't won since a 55-14 defeat of Kansas helped the Wildcats reach No. 16 in the AP poll but their third straight loss, that 45-0 whitewashing at Iowa State (worst loss in five seasons) has them just 4-4. "Hopefully they're a little ticked off," head coach Chris Klieman said Monday when asked about his players' attitudes. "In the same respect, our leaders are tremendous leaders. We had a good week of practice last week after a tough loss to Oklahoma State. I can promise you that we'll have a good week of practice this week after a tough loss to Iowa State. The Wildcats have had little consistency on offense, with true freshmen, QB Will Howard and RB Deuce Vaughn, showing promise at times but they've also been very unimpressive in other games. Howard was pulled last week after going 3 of 9 for 32 yards with one INT and is completing just 52.8% on the season with more INTs (six) than TD passes (five). Vaughn is the team's leading rusher (just 415 yards) for a team averaging only 124.6 YPG on the ground. Baylor's QB Brewer led the Bears into the Big 12 championship game last season (lost 30-23 in OT to Oklahoma) and to a Sugar Bowl berth (lost 26-14 to Georgia. However, the Bears were 11-3 on the season and Brewer entered 2020 having thrown for over 3,000 yards the previous two seasons, with 40 TD passes and 16 INTs. He's completing 62.0% this season but for just 1,278 yards with a modest 11 TDs and six INTs. Baylor doesn't have a RB with even 200 yards rushing, as the Bears are averaging 107.8 YPG on the ground. At first blush one could say "under" but the K-state defense is allowing 27.6 PPG and Baylor D is allowing 27.2 PPG. Baylor has been in every game, beginning with a double-overtime loss at West Virginia and most recently in a one-point loss at Texas Tech on Nov. 14. FOUR of its five losses have been on the road, so some home cookin' just might help. As for Kansas St, how can't the Wildcats bounce-back after that 'ugly' 45-0 loss at Iowa St? This over/under number is in the mid-40s, VERY low by 2020 standards. I expect the winner to be in the 30s and the loser may join them. Go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-20 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
My "Featured" 10* Sunday Total is on Cin/Was Over at 1:00 ET. The top two picks in the 2020 NFL Draft will face off for the first time Sunday when QB Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Washington Football Team and defensive end Chase Young in Landover, Md. Burrow has earned praise from across the league for his poise, accuracy and the speed with which he's adapted to the pro game, while Young has NOT had a big impact with 21 tackles and 3.5 sacks in eight games, all starts. Cincinnati checks in at 2-6-1 and has yet to win on the road (0-4-1) in 2020, while Washington is 2-7 but actually remains in contention in the NFC Least,' where the 3-5-1 Eagles are in first place and the 3-7 Giants are second place. The Cincy OL has hampered both Burrow (he's been sacked 32 times) and the team's running game (105.4 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but Burrow has completed 65.4% for 2,485 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs. Mixon is the team's best RB (428 yards on just 3.6 YPC) but he remains out (last played Oct 18) and Beranrd's value is as a receiver (28 catches with two TDs). WRs Boyd (60 catches / 3 TDs) and Higgins (40 catches / 4 TDs) have both been solid but A.J. Green continues to underperform (31 catches on the season), with just TWO receptions for 19 yards in the last two games. Burrow will look (NEED) to bounce back, after Cincy's 'ugly' 36-10 road loss at undefeated Pittsburgh last week. He passed for just 213 yards and the Bengals were 0-for-13 on third down.! In stark contrast, while Washington lost 30-27 at Detroit in Week 10, QB Alex Smiths continued one of the season's better 'feel good' stories. It's taken nearly two years for him to return to the starting lineup but took him only two games to inject himself into the conversation over whether he can be Washington's future quarterback. He's thrown for a combined 715 yards in Washington's last two losses, nearly leading comebacks from large deficits each time. Smith has returned to a place few thought he would reach again. In Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Detroit Lions, Smith's first start since breaking the fibula and tibia in his right leg on Nov 18, 2018, he completed a career-high 38 passes for 390 yards. Washington tied the game after trailing by 21 points in the second half only to lose on a last-second field goal. Washington's running game (91.9 YPG on 3.8 YPC) is even worse than Cincy's, although Gibson did have two rushing TDs against Detroit, giving him seven on the season (436 yards on 4.2 YPC). Fellow RB McKissic is used more as a receiver, as he has 41 catches. WR McLaurin (57 catches / 13.8 YPC / 3 TDs) is Washington's best receiver, although TE Thomas (28 / 3 TDs) has been effective at times. The Bengals are just 2-6-1 but they own a 6-3 ATS record. They have been non-competitive at Baltimore and Pittsburgh but 2-4-1 (6-1 ATS) in their other seven games. NONE of those four losses have come by more than FIVE points and there was that tie at Philly. Washington still has some motivation, as a win here and at Dallas on Thanksgiving, would move them to 4-7. The Eagles are at 6-3 Cleveland this week and they play Seattle (7-3), Green Bay (7-2) and New Orleans (7-3) their next three! Neither Burrow nor Smith can rely on any help from their respective running games, so expect both to have big games. Expect Burrow to bounce-back from his POOR effort at Pittsburgh and Smith faces a Cincy D which allows 30.4 PPG on the road. Go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 44 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* "Featured" Sunday Total is on Phi/NYG Over at 1:00 ET. It's Week 10 and the 2-7 Giants can actually say with a straight face, if we win on Sunday, we are "right in the hunt" for the division title. It's true, thanks to the NFC East being arguably the worst in NFL history here in 2020. The 3-4-1 Eagles are in first place, followed by 2-6 Washington and then the 2-7 Cowboys and Cowboys. These teams met back on Oct 22 in Philadelphia (Week 7), with New York controlling most of the first 3 1/2 quarters, leading 21-10 with less than five minutes left. However, Carson Wentz threw 3- and 18-yard TD passes to 'escape' with a 22-21 win. Philly QB Wentz entered this season having thrown EXACTLY seven INTs in each of the last THREE seasons, while passing for 81 TD passes. However, Wentz has really struggled in 2020, completing only 58.4% for 1,883 yards with as many INTs (12) as TDs (12), His 12 INTs are an NFL-high and he's also lost FOUR fumbles. His QB rating is just 73.2, after posting ratings of 101.9, 102.2 and 93.1 the last three years. Philly's many injuries haven't helped. TE Ertz and WR Jackson remain on IR but after a bye week,RB Miles Sanders and WR Alshon Jeffery are expected back. Miles led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving) and has run for 434 yards (6.1 YPC) with three TDs in five games this season. Philly's defense is no better than average, allowing 340.1 PPG (10th) but 25.6 PPG (17th). Speaking of QBs that make mistakes, let me submit the name of Daniel Jones. He's completing 62.4% for 1,878 yards with eight TDs and nine INTs. I will add that he's also New York's leading rusher, adding 320 yards on 8.0 YPC. He WAS turnover free in New York's win last Sunday (more later) but even with that mistake-free game, the second-year QB has committed a whopping 36 turnovers in 21 career starts. The only NFL quarterback with a worse ratio to start his career was Ryan Leaf (OUCH!). With Barkley done for the season, the New York running game is non-existent. Subtract Jones' totals and New York's RBs are averaging 70.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. TE Engram leads with 36 catches, followed by WR Slayton (33 catches / 14.9 YPC / 3 TDs). It's possible we'll see more of Golden Tate in this game. Tate signed a four-year, $37 million deal last year (he had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons from 2014-17) in an attempt to fill the void created by the trade of Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns. However, he's been in 'the dog house' in 2020, playing just over 50% of the offensive snaps the past few weeks prior to his benching. Tate has 22 catches on 29 targets for 226 yards with two TDs this season in a reduced role. He apologized earlier this week so maybe...The New York defense is similar to that of Philadelphia's, allowing 24.3 PPG on 360.0 YPG. Philly's Week 7 22-21 win over the Giants gave the Eagles SEVEN straight victories over their NFC East rivals but note that the Giants have covered in FIVE of those contests. The Giants lost that Thursday night game at Philly by allowing two TDs in the final 4:38. The Giants led 20-3 at Washington last Sunday but needed TWO fourth-quarter interceptions to hold on for a 23-20 win. That said, the Giants enter this contest having covered FIVE of their last six, while averaging 24.2 PPG in their last five. Neither defense is any better than average and I look for both teams to again score 20 points and for the winner to maybe get into the 30s. Go OVER! Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-20 | Oregon State v. Washington OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 25 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Total of the Week is on Oregon St/Washington Over at 11:00 ET. The Pac-12 and the Big Ten Conference voted to postpone fall sports back in August but the Big Ten was first to reverse that decision, leaving the Pac 12 as the only Power Five conference still postponing. However, the Pac 12 announced on Sep 24 that it would return to the field with each school playing a conference-only seven-game schedule (championship game is scheduled for December 18). The conference finally began play last Saturday but unfortunately, two games were canceled because of COVID issues (Arizona at Utah and Washington at Cal). Four games went on as scheduled, including a rematch of one of the wildest games in the 2019 Pac-12 season. Washington St overcame an 11-point deficit at home in the final 2:10 to win 54-53 over Oregon St. The rematch went to Washington St again, as the Cougars beat the Beavers 38-28. The Beavers will travel to Seattle this Saturday to face Washington, which saw its long-delayed season opener called off, as contact-tracing protocols the city of Berkeley mandates forced Cal to cancel the game with the Huskies. Jonathan Smith was a four-year starter for the Beavers at QB and he's now Oregon St's head coach, beginning his third season. His first ended with a 2-10 record but in 2019, a victory in the above-mentioned game with Washington St would have given OSU a 6-6 record, with the Beavers becoming bowl-eligible. Instead, the Beavers finished 5-7. Oregon State has a new QB this season, as Jake Luton, who passed for 2,714 yards and 28 touchdowns against just three interceptions in 2019, is now with the NFL's Jacksonville Jaguars. Luton's backup a season ago, Tristan Gebbia, got the start last Saturday, passing for 329 yards and just one TD. However, he threw 48 times and was NEVER intercepted. RB Jefferson battled injuries last season but still ran for 685 yards on 4.8 YPC with eight TDs, after he ran for 1,380 yards as a freshman. He had 120 yards on 5.7 YPC and scored three TDs. Four players caught five passes or more. Defense remains an issue, as the Beavers allowed 38 points on 456 yards (team allowed 32.5 PPG on 445.7 YPG last season). Washington likely can't wait to finally play a game, as its originally scheduled season opener was a home game vs Michigan back on Sep 5. Jimmy Lake joined the Washington Huskies staff in 2014 as a defensive backs coach under head coach Chris Petersen. This was his second stint at the school after serving one year under Keith Gilbertson in 2004. In 2016, he was promoted to co-defensive coordinator. Petersen announced he would step down as Washington's head coach at the end of the 2019 season and Lake would be his successor. It became official on December 2, 2019. QB Jacob Eason (3,132 yards with 23 TDs and 8 INTs) and RB Ahmed (1,020 / 5.4 YPC / 11 TDs) both left early. Eason was drafted in the 4th round but Ahmed went undrafted. The Huskies will feature their third different opening-week starter in as many seasons. However, Lake has not declared a starter among the four competitors for the job: Jacob Sirmon, Dylan Morris, Ethan Garbers and Sacramento State transfer Kevin Thomson. With Ahmed gone, expect Newton to assume "featured" RB status. He gained 498 yards rushing last season, scoring 11 TDs (10 rushing). Washington's defense is always top-notch (has allowed less than 20.0 PPG in each of the last FIVE seasons) and that's unlikely to change much this season. Washington's offense has plenty of questions but I expect them to have little trouble against this Oregon St defense. Meanwhile, the Beavers' offense looked just fine last Saturday and with a game under its belt, should give Washington's defense all it can handle. Go OVER! Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-20 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 41.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* "Featured" NFL Sunday Total (Week 9) is on NYG/Was Over at 1:00 ET. Washington and the NY Giants met in MetLife Stadium in Week 6, with the Giants eking out a 20-19 win. Kyle Allen threw a 22-yard TD pass to Cam Sims with 36 seconds left but head coach Ron Rivera's gamble for a two-point try was unsuccessful. Washington bounced back from that loss to dominate Dallas 25-3 in Week 7 and Week 8 served as the team's bye week. That Week 6 win for New York is the Giants' lone win of the 2020 season, as the Giants followed it with "close but no cigar" losses at Philly (22-21) and home to Tampa Bay (25-23). Washington's just 2-5 but in the NFC East, where 3-4-1 Philly 'masquerades' as a division-leader, a win keeps Washington in the hunt. As for the 1-7 Giants, it's really a stretch to think the team has any realistic division hopes. However, the Giants do own the NFC East's best ATS record (5-3), with Washington following at 4-3 and division-leader Philly checking in at 3-5. The Giants have NO running game with Barkley out for the season, as QB Daniel Jones leads the team with 316 yards (9.3 YPC!). The team averages only 98.5 YPG on the ground but if one were to subtract Jones' contributions, the team's RBs are averaging 59.0 YPG on a sad-sack 3.3 YPC. The Giants will need to score through the air but Jones is completing 61.8% for a modest 1,666 yards (barely over 200 per game) plus has more INTs (nine) than TDs (seven). New York's D is allowing 24.6 PPG on 354.8 YPG. Washington was impressive in its 25-3 win over the Dallas Cowboys, out-gaining Dallas 397-142. Rookie RB Antonio Gibson ran for a career-high 128 yards, while Kyle Allen was 15-for-25 with two TDs and 194 yards in his third start since replacing Dwayne Haskins. The QB change has been good. Allen has completed 68.7% in his last two games, with four TD passes and just one INT, posting QB ratings of 97.3 and 111.1 (against Dallas). Gibson now has 371 rushing yards on the season (4.4 YPC and two TDs) plus fellow RB McKissic has 25 catches. WR McLaurin has 43 grabs (13.4 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Thomas 21 catches with three TDs. The Giants have won FIVE of the last six in this series plus have posted an impressive 14-3 ATS mark as a road underdog. The Giants enter having scored 34, 20, 22 and 23 points in their last four games (an average of 24.9 PPG) and I like them to be in that point-range again here. As for Washington, Allen is the right choice at QB and RB Gibson is starting to make an impact. Washington is up against a New York D which has allowed 25.8 PPG in its last four, so I'm expecting them to score along with the Giants. Go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* SNF Magic play is my "Featured" Sunday total on Dal/Phi Over at 8:20 ET. The 2-5 Cowboys will be in Philadelphia on Sunday night to take on the 2-4-1 Eagles and believe it or not, the winners will enter Week 9 (mid-point of the NFL's 17-week schedule) with the division lead. That's what happens when one plays in the NFC East, as its four teams are a combined 7-20-1!). The Dallas Cowboys opened NFL 2020 with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owned just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. The current season has been an unmitigated disaster and now, following injuries to QB Dak Prescott and then Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci is expected to make his first start as QB of the Dallas Cowboys (more later). The Eagles fought through injuries in 2019 to capture the NFC East title with a 9-7 record, the second time they had won the NFC East in the last three seasons (qualified as a wild card in the other season). QB Carson Wentz entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of those last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday completing just 58.6% with 10 TDs and 10 INTs, which is tied for the most of any QB in the league with Kirk Cousins. His 74.3 QB rating is among the very worst of regular starters (more later). Ben DiNucci became the first player in Pennsylvania state history to throw for 4,000 yards in a season at Pine-Richland High School in suburban Pittsburgh. He led his team to a state title and was named Pennsylvania's Gatorade Player of the Year. He originally committed to Penn before switching to Pitt. After three seasons with the Panthers, DiNucci transferred to James Madison, an FCS program, and passed for 3,441 yards with 29 TDs and six interceptions in 2019. The Cowboys selected him with the 231st overall pick, the 11th QB taken. Now, here he is playing on SNF and if he can lead his team to a win, the Cowboys would regain first place in the sad-sack NFC East. It's not as if he doesn't have anything to work with. RB Elliott is not having a stellar season but he has run for 458 yards on 4.1 YPC with five TDs and has added 33 catches (hard to argue he's NOT a quality RB). Dallas has a trio of quality WRs in Cooper (53 catches / 2 TDs), Lamb (36 / 2 TDs) and Gallup, who may have just 19 catches but averages 19.5 YPC. TE Schultz isn't 'chopped liver,' catching 25 balls for two TDs. The problem is the Dallas D which is allowing a league-worst 34.7 PPG on 408.1 YPG. Philly receivers struggled to stay healthy last season and that's the case again in 2020. More bad news comes Philly's way with the news that RB Miles Sanders will miss this game with a knee injury, as he's the team's most versatile offensive player. That said, I'm not ready to give up on Wentz and he is going up against a REALLY bad Dallas defense. I agree that many key receivers are out but Fulgham has caught 21 passes (14.3 YPC and two TDs) the last three games, while fellow WR Ward has a team-high 29 catches on the season. TE Ertz is out but Rodgers stepped up with SIX catches in Philly's last game for 85 yards. What's more, TE Dallas Goedert (ankle) and rookie WR Jalen Reagor (thumb) have been activated from IR and could play. Against this Dallas D, Wentz is more than capable of putting up points. Remember, the Eagles scored 29 points at Pittsburgh, which has allowed the fewest yards in the league (286.3 YPG) and a modest 19.7 PPG. Getting back to DiNucci, he'll face a Philly defense allowing 28.0 PPG. Dallas is off a humiliating 25-3 loss at Washington last week and the Cowboys can't win here by relying on its defense. DiNucci wouldn't be the first "unknown" to surprise in his NFL debut and that's EXACTLY what I expect here. Getting back to Wentz, I expect him to deliver a season-best effort. Go OVER! Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets OVER 44.5 | Top | 18-10 | Loss | -118 | 73 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Month is on Buf/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET. The New York Jets are the only remaining winless NFL team as they welcome the Buffalo Bills to MetLife Stadium for a Week 7 contest on Sunday. The Jets are last in the NFL with 75 points scored (every other NFL team has scored at least 100), which is an average of 12.5 per game. The Jets are also one of EIGHT teams allowing 30-plus points per game (30.8), meaning they are losing by an average of 18.3 PPG. It should not come as a shock that the Jets are also 0-6 ATS. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, it seemed like the perfect opportunity for someone other than the Patriots to win the AFC East. Why not the Bills? Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th overall). He had not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and he has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He was terrific in Buffalo's 4-0 start, completing 70.9 percent of his passes, while averaging 331.5 YPG through the air with 12 TDs and just one INT. However, Buffalo has lost back-to-back games, 42-26 at Tennessee and then 26-17 at home to KC this past Monday night. Buffalo's D (allowing 28.0 PPG on the season) sure didn't help but Allen has really regressed in the two losses, completing just 58.8 percent, while averaging only 192.5 YPG passing with four TDs and three INTs. It's really hard to make much of a case for the Jets winning this game (or any upcoming game, either), so I won't try. Sam Darnold suffered an AC joint sprain of his passing shoulder on Oct 1 against the Denver Broncos and Joe Flacco has started the past two games, a span in which the Jets have scored 10 total points. Flacco has completed just 50.6 percent of his passes in his two starts, throwing for 381 yards with one TD and one INT. His QB rating was 82.3 in a 30-10 home loss to Arizona and then a pathetic 50.0 in last Sunday's 24-0 shutout loss in Miami. Sam Darnold (shoulder) returned to practice Wednesday as a limited participant and took the bulk of the first-team repetitions. Adam Gase has yet to name Darnold as Sunday's starter but that's the likely scenario. As for Gase, he's wearing out his welcome very quickly in East Rutherford. Gase led Miami to a 10-6 record and a wild card spot in his first season (2016) but was fired after 6-10 and 7-9 seasons. You tell me why the Jets quickly signed him as their head coach but after a 7-9 record last season, this year's 0-6 start has tongues 'wagging.' These teams met in Week 1 at Buffalo and the Bills won 27-17. The over/under in that game was 39.5 and the over was my "Featured" Sunday total of Week. The total is almost six points higher here but I'm still Goin' Over and here's why. The Bills really NEED a win here to 'stop the bleeding,' as they don't want to see their 4-0 start turn into a 4-3 record after seven games. The Dolphins are 3-3 but on a "bye week" and the Pats are 2-3 and at home to the 49ers. No reason at all for Allen not to regain his form against the Jets "D" and especially if Darnold is back, the Jets should be able to move the ball (and score!) against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 30.2 PPG over its last five games. The total is a FG higher than I had hoped for but adjustments have been made due to the league's overall high scoring so far. Buffalo averaged 30.8 PPG in its 4-0 start and I see them surpassing that average here, which should lead to this game flying over the total. Good luck...Larry |
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10-18-20 | Washington Football Team v. Giants OVER 42.5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -116 | 70 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* "Featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Was/NYG Over at 1:00 ET. The 0-5 New York Giants are one of just THREE remaining winless NFL teams as the 2020 season moves into Week 6. The other two are the New York Jets (the Giants co-tenants of MetLife Stadium) and the Atlanta Falcons, who fired coach Dan Quinn at the beginning of the week. While 0-5 is 0-5, it should be noted that while the Falcons and Jets are a combined 1-9 ATS, the Giants have gone 3-2. Three of the Giants' losses have come by single digits, including a 37-34 road setback last week in Dallas against the Cowboys. First-year head coach Joe Judge said he is encouraged by his team's progress. "That's all that really matters, to be honest with you, the progress that we're making right now," Judge said after his team's latest loss. "The record will come in time. Obviously, we're not happy about the losses, that's not what we do here. But I've seen a lot of progress on all fronts and all units. We have to keep making consistent progress to keep being a better team as the year goes." It's fair to say it's "put up or shut up" time for the Giants this Sunday, as 1-4 Washington visits East Rutherford, NJ. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but rallied to score the game's final 27 points in a 27-17 win over the defending NFC East champs. However, very little has gone right for the team since then, as Washington has lost FOUR in a row (0-3-1 ATS) since that Week 1 victory, allowing at each 30 points in each contest (average of 31.3 PPG). Washington has seen enough of QB Dwayne Haskins (61.0% for 939 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTS for a QB rating of 80.3), replacing him in favor of backup Kyle Allen in last Sunday's 30-10 loss to the Raiders. Allen completed 9 of 13 passes for 74 yards and rushed for a TD before he was injured on a scramble, which created an opportunity for Alex Smith to take the field for the first time since his gruesome leg injury in 2018. However, Washington is expected to turn back to Allen against the Giants after he reportedly was cleared by doctors to return. This would be his 15th career start, including 13 with the Carolina Panthers over the previous two seasons (he's 6-8 as an NFL starter). Allen can't expect much help from a running game that averages just 101.8 YPG on 3.5 YPC but RBs McKissic (17 catches) and Gibson (145 catches) have both done a nice job as receivers. Washington's lone WR of note is second-year player McLaurin, who has 29 catches, averaging 15.8 YPC. With Barkley out for the season, the Giants know all about the lack of a running game, as New York ranks dead-last in the NFL by averaging a pathetic 79.0 YPG on the ground (3.8 YPC). The Giants are sticking with second-year QB Daniel Jones, who showed flashes of potential in 2019. He ended the season having completed 61.9% for 3,027 yards with 24 TDs and just 12 INTs. He's completing 61.0% this year for 1,111 yards (that's on pace for 3,5000 yards on the season) but he has just two TD passes and five INTs. QB rating of 70.6 is down from his rookie season, when he posted an 87.7 rating. Second-year WR Slayton has 23 catches (15.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Engram has 18 catches. A huge disappointment so far is Golden Tate, who has a modest 18 catches plus is averaging only 8.1 YPC (Tate had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons (2014-17). The Giants are third-to-last in the league in averaging only 282.4 YPG, while Washington is dead last with 263.0 YPG. So why go over? Neither team can run the ball and I expect both QBs to have solid games, maybe even their best games this season to-date. As has been widely reported, scoring has never been higher (since the 1970 merger) and linemakers have adjusted the over/under numbers up. However, as of Friday at 12 noon ET, this game has the lowest posted total of any Week 6 game. The Giants should 'smell' the chance for a "W" and I won't be even a little surprised if they are the FIFTH straight team to score 30-plus points on Washington, meaning we won't need too much help from Washington for this game to go over. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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10-11-20 | Eagles v. Steelers OVER 44 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 49 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* "Featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Phi/Pit Over at 1:00 ET. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers got an unexpected "bye week" last Sunday, with the Titans fighting a COVID-19 outbreak. That game's been rescheduled for Oct 25 and the 3-0 Steelers get set to welcome cross-state rival the Philadelphia Eagles to Heinz Field, as one of the NFL's SIX remaining unbeaten teams. The Eagles FINALLY got into the win column last Sunday night at San Francisco but at 1-2-1 sit atop the NFL's worst division, the NFC East (Dallas and Washington are 1-3 and the NY Giants are 0-4). I took the Eagles last Sunday night, as I'm not ready just yet to "give up" on Carson Wentz. He entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL among starting QBs (66.9) and has already thrown SEVEN interceptions. Philly has key injuries to WRs Jeffrey (out) and Jackson (questionable) but still has a terrific TE in Ertz (19 catches, to lead the team). WR Ward has stepped up with 18 catches and more importantly, RB Miles Sanders has returned to rush for 236 yards (4.6 YPC) and catch nine passes in the last three games (he missed Week 1 with an injury). He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). The Philly defense may lead the league in sacks (17) but it's allowing 26.8 PPG. Pittsburgh has 15 sacks (in just three games) and its defense is No. 2 in yards allowed (290.0 per) and ranks fifth in points allowed (19.3 per). The 38-year-old Roethlisberger is playing with a surgically repaired right elbow and "looking good!" He's completing 67.0% for 777 yards with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 105.2). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor has topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (17 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (14 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group, which also features Claypool, who has just six catches but is averaging 25.2 YPC (one TD). You may find this hard to believe (I sure did) but if Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will be 4-0 for the first time in 41 years! I don't think Big Ben and Co. will have much trouble at all with Philly's so-so defense and again, I'm NOT giving up on Wentz. He's scrambling more this season, gaining 102 yards on 16 carries in the past two games and has run for a TD in each of the past three weeks. You may have heard that NFL games have averaged a combined 51.3 through the first four weeks of a season, the highest since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. This total is well below the average for Week 5 games and I'm Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team OVER 45 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 14 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Bal/Was Over at 1:00 ET. Here's part of what I wrote in taking KC over Baltimore when those two teams met last Monday night. "It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG)." I closed with this. "The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson is 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, TWO of those losses have come against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points." The result was a 34-20 KC win, Jackson completed just 53.6% of his passes for 97 yards and ran for 83 but with zero TDs. The Baltimore defense gave up 35 points and 29 FDs, while allowing 517 yards. Now other than playing home games in Maryland, there are few similarities between the Baltimore Ravens and the Washington Football Team. Washington finished 3-13 in 2019, the worst record in the NFC and is nothing more than a rebuilding team in 2020. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but scored the game's final 27 points. Washington had eight sacks and forced three TOs, while its scoring drives covered 45, 20, 26, 48 and 20 yards. Since that Week 1 win, Washington's allowed 30 and 34 points in losses to Arizona and Cleveland. The Ravens entered Monday night on an 11-1 ATS run in which they have averaged 34.8 PPG. I see no way that Baltimore won't top that average in this contest, against a weak Washington defense. That means Washington won't have to contribute too much for this contest to 'go over!' That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-20 | LSU v. Vanderbilt OVER 49.5 | Top | 41-7 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
 My CFB 10* Total of the Month is on LSU/Vandy Over at 7:30 ET. LSU took the field last Saturday at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, minus 17 starters from last year's national champions. LSU had NO answer for Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense, which he brought to Miss St and the SEC in 2020.The Bulldogs started K.J. Costello at QB, a graduate transfer from Stanford. He was a solid QB for the Cardinal but he looked like Patrick Mahomes, ripping the LSU pass D for 623 pass yards (an SEC record), throwing for five TDs. Miss St won 44-34, ending LSU's 16-game winning streak. LSU heads out on the road on the first Saturday of October to play the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vandy opened its season at Texas A&M and lost just 17-12 as a more than four-TD underdog. The Commodores allowed just 17 FDs and held the Aggies to 372 yards. However, the Vandy offense was inept last season (16.5 PPG on 299.3 YPG) would do very little (12 points on 255 yards). Ken Seals won the starting QB job and was 20 of 29 but threw for just 150 yards (one TD / 2 INTs), while Vandy's running game mustered just 105 yards (2.8 YPC). Getting back to LSU, no expects Myles Brennan to measure up to the departed Joe Burrow but he did throw for 345 yards and three TDs (but also two interceptions). The Tigers' running game (38 carries, 80 yards) was pedestrian, though that counts minus-45 yards on MSU's seven sacks. Gone are WRs Chase (84 catches / 20 TDs) and Jefferson (111 catches / 18 TDs) plus TE moss (47 catches / 4 TDs) but Marshall returns and he caught eight passes for 122 yards with two TDs. LSU has a massive talent edge in this matchup (duh!) plus will be hungry to rebound after last Saturday's loss. These teams played in Nashville last season as well, as LSU rolled to a 66-38 win. I think it is very possible that LSU covers this over/under all by itself but a few scores from Vandy (note: the 'Dores averaged 21.6 PPG at home in 2019) should make this an "easy over!" That's the play. Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos OVER 42.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Featured Sunday Total of the Week is on TB/Den Over at 4:25 ET. Obviously, one of the NFL's biggest storylines entering the 2020 season (not counting COVID-19) was Tom Brady leaving New England (after some moderate success) and landing in Tampa Bay with the Bucs. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp were that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He also brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). However, Brady's been pretty mediocre, throwing for just 456 yards after two games with as many INTs (three) as TD passes (three). Going back to last season, Brady enters this contest having thrown interceptions in each of his last four starts, three of them being Pick-6s! As for Gronk, it would be a HUGE understatement to say he is off to a slow start in Tampa. He has just two catches for 11 yards and was held without a catch last week for just the FIFTH time in his 117-game career. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013. The Broncos were outplayed by Tennessee in Week 1 but lost just 16-14 when Gostkowski missed three FGs and an extra-point. In Week 2 at Pittsburgh, Drew Lock went down with a shoulder) injury but Jeff Driskel (256 passing yards with two TDs and one INT) led an unlikely comeback despite taking six sacks and absorbing 17 hits. Denver trailed by 14 points at halftime and by 12 in the fourth quarter but was 15 yards away from a stunning upset before Edmunds came off the edge and sent Driskel to the turf one last time. Looking at this contest, I see a much higher scoring game than the total indicates. Brady OVERDUE for a "big game," as his Gronk. As for RB Leonard Fournette, who signed with the Bucs earlier this month, he ran for 103 yards in Week 2 (on 8.6 YPC) with two TDs. Fournette may also just remember running for 225 yards on 29 carries in the Jaguars' 26-24 win at Denver a year ago. Yes, Jeff Driskel gets his first start for Denver and is seeking just his SECOND career win, which would be only 248 fewer than Brady. Fans are absent (for the most part) in 2020 but the Broncos may have a big home-field edge with teams coming in even later and having no time to adjust to the elevation. Denver is on a 9-2-1 ATS a home dog, so don't be surprised if they are in this all the way. What's more, Driskel is going against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 28.1 PPG. last season plus its pass D allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. Tampa's D may be slightly better than last year's unit but not MUCH better. I expect BOTH Brady AND Driskel to play well. This one is Goin' OVER! Good luck...Larr |
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09-26-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss OVER 54.5 | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on Tulane/Southern Miss Over at 2:30 ET. Willie Fritz arrived in New Orleans to take over at Tulane for the 2016 season. The Green Wave would go 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons but they would then go 6-6 and 6-6 in 2018 and 2019's regular season, capping each one off with a bowl win. It marks the first time Tulane has posted back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. QB Justin McMillan could be erratic but he passed for 2,444 yards (17 TDs / 10 INTs) and was the team's leading rusher with 745 yards (4.4 YPC / 12 TDs). The bottom line is this, he led Tulane to 33.1 PPG on 449.3 YPG, as both totals rank third-best in school history for a single season. New QB Keon Howard is off to a poor start, completing just 43.6% for 299 yards without a TD and one INT in Tulane's 1-1 start. The Good news on offense has been redshirt freshman Tyler Spears running for 224 yards on 7.7 YPC. Tulane's first game saw them win 27-24 at South Alabama but then lose last Saturday at home to Navy. Tulane led that game 24-0 at the half, before Navy scored the game's final 27 points with the game-winning 33 -yard FG coming at 0:00! Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old. The Golden Eagles had seemingly bounced back with strong effort last week at home vs La Tech, as they led 27-10 towards the end of the third quarter. However, La Tech drove 74 yards in 17 plays to score the winning TD with 14 seconds to go, stealing a 31-30 win. QB Jack Abraham has been very good, completing 71.9 percent of his passes for 578 yards with three TDs and just one INT. However, the running game is non-existent, averaging 112.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. The Southern Miss defense has allowed 31.5 PPG on YPG 453.5 YPG. These two schools met in last season's Armed Forces Bowl, with Tulane winning 30-13. Sure, Southern Miss is playing with revenge but it' hard to trust this year's team at the moment. Then again, Tulane clearly needs to bounce-back from its disastrous second-half collapse against Navy. The Southern Miss defense is clearly vulnerable and Tulane QB Howard is a Southern Miss transfer, who HAS to be looking forward to playing against his former team. As noted above, Southern Miss QB Abraham has looked sharp and I'm expecting a high-scoring game. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-20 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 42 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 115 h 26 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Ten Over at 1:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 3:00 ET Wednesday afternoon Wednesday |
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09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills OVER 39.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "Featured" Total of the Week is on NYJ/Buf Over at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoff again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East. The Jets last made the postseason in 2010 and have posted just ONE winning season (10-6 in 2015) in that nine-year span. Adam Gase went 7-9 in his first season as the Jets' head coach but he seems to think the jets "are close." So does Le'Veon Bell. He says he's "night and day" ahead of last season in terms of his grasp of the offense. He believes the same is true for every player, especially QB Sam Darnold. It's getting to that "now or never" point of Darnold's career and many still believe he can be a quality starting QB in the NFL (we'll see). We KNOW what Bell can do at his best. He had 1,361 rushing yards and 85 catches in 2014, 1,268 rushing yards and 94 catches in 2015 (12 games) and 1,291 rushing yards and 107 catches in 2017 (all for Pittsburgh). He was limited to just six games in 2016 and then sat out all of 2018, before signing with the Jets, I believe New York's offense will be greatly improved in 2020 but the defense some key players on defense with safety Adams being traded to Seattle and LB Mosley choosing to opt out. Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen, like Darnold, was part of the same 2017 NHL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round. He's not a prolific passer but he's a real leader and has produced (unlike Darnold). Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made excellent strides and has become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. A real bonus this year for the offense is the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs. The ageless Frank Gore is gone at RB (actually, he's on the Jets) but FAU rookie Devin Singletary was the "featured back" down the stretch, finishing with 751 yards on 5.1 YPC. The buffalo offense averaged only PPG in 2019 but watch that average 'soar' here in 2020. Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in openers and the Jets have failed to cover 10 of their last 13 against AFC East opponents. Lay the points? Maybe an OK idea but this is the lowest over/under of Week 1, opening at 39.5 (second-lowest opened at 42. I expect Darnold to want to "show well" against Allen plus I'm 'buying' Bell's optimism about his team. As for the Bills, don't be surprised if this year's offense averages 5-7 points higher than the 19.6 PPG Buffalo averaged in 2019. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-20 | Charlotte v. Appalachian State OVER 59 | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -105 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Charlotte/App St Over at 12:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 8:00 ET Wednesday evening. |
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09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 218.5 | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year is on Mil/Mia Over at 3:30 ET. Here's what I wrote in support of the Bucks in Games 2 and 3 vs the Heat. Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season, 12 games better than Miami's 44-29 record. The Bucks have been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but after a Game 1 'hiccup' vs Orlando in this is the playoffs, the Bucks won FOUR straight by an average margin of 14.5 PPG. The Bucks lost Game 1, even though they led by 11 points after the first quarter, as the Heat controlled the rest of the game to win by 11. The Heat were the team to get off to a quick start in Game 2, leading 38-29 at the end of the first quarter. Miami's lead was 90-86 entering the fourth but Milwaukee had the lead back on the very first possession of the final quarter. Middleton was fouled on a three-point try, He made the first two free throws and the rebound of the third was controlled by the Bucks. Kyle Korver made a three-pointer off that rebound to cap a five-point possession for Milwaukee, which had the lead again at 91-90 for the first time since 14-13. However, the Heat then scored 13 of the next 15 points to not only reclaim the lead but push it to 103-93 with 7:50 left. Miami led by SIX with 27 seconds left but almost let it slip away. I'm sure everyone saw the frantic few seconds but in the end, Miami won 116-114 (and deservedly so). Then in Game 3, Milwaukee led by 12 points entering the fourth quarter and ultimately lost by 15!! The Bucks were outscored in the fourth quarter by 27 (40-13), which was the largest points differential in a fourth quarter of a playoff game in the shot clock era (since 1955), according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Miami ended the game on a 17-1 run. History says the Bucks are 'dead.' No NBA team ever has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series in 139 attempts in NBA playoff history! The Bucks have confounded me and MANY others as well. History says they are 'dead' but as the saying goes, "all things are true until they aren't!" Giannis Antetokounmpo finished Game 3 with 21 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists but he missed all SEVEN three-point attempts and made only 7 of 12 free throws (he made just 4 of 12 FTs in Game 1). Antetokounmpo was dealing with a twisted right ankle in Game 3, an ailment he sustained in the first quarter on a drive to the basket. It's unclear whether it will limit him in Game 4. He didn't say much about it after Game 3. Will Giannis even suit up with Milwaukee in an 0-3 'hole?' Giannis is hardly the problem for the Bucks in this series, as Milwaukee has averaged 14.3 turnovers per game and shot 35.1 percent from three-point range so far in the series, including just 20.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The fact that Miami is averaging 31.0 free-throw attempts per game, is a HUGE problem for the Bucks, as is containing Jimmy Butler. He had 40 points in Game 1 (career playoff-high), hit the game-winning free throws with no time on the clock in Game 2 and scored 30 points in Game 3, including 17 in the decisive fourth quarter! Butler's getting plenty of help from the team's other four starters this postseason (all are averaging between 10.4 and 22.3 PPG) plus rookie Herro has averaged 15.3 PPG off the bench in this year's playoffs. The Bucks no longer have ANY pressure on them (the team's 'obit' has already been written) and what I see (Giannis limited or not) is Milwaukee playing loose and for this game to 'fly' over the total. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 213 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* 1st Round Total of the Year is on Bos/Phi Over at 1:00 ET. The third-seeded Boston Celtics hope to complete a playoff-series sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 6 seed) in Game 4Â of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon. Boston scored Game 3's final 10 points on Friday, walking away with a 102-94 win. Here's how the game turned down the stretch. Embiid gave the 76ers their last lead of Game 3 at 94-92 on two free throws with 2:14 remaining but with the 76ers having a chance to add to their lead, he attempted a cross-court pass out of a double-team. The ball was intercepted by Marcus Smart and turned into a three-point play by Jaylen Brown for a 95-94 advantage for the Celtic. Philly had a chance to retake the lead on their next possession but Embiid's off-balance jumper was blocked by Jayson Tatum, who was then fouled in the open court, resulting in a clear-path infraction and two free throws. He made one and when Kemba Walker buried a 20-footer with 1:05 left on the Celtics' ensuing possession, Boston was up four and headed to a commanding series lead. And so it goes. Boston's Hayward was lost for the series in Game 1 but Boston has produced a trio of 20-point scorers in this series, Tatum (26.7 & 8.0), Brown (23.3 & 6.0) and Walker (21.7-4.3-3.7). Smart has replaced Hayward in the starting lineup the last two games and has averaged 12.0-6.0-2.5. Philly began the series with Simmons and Embiid has been the 'big dog,' averaging 30.0 & 13.0. Regular starters Richardson (17.7 & 4.0) and Harris (14.3 & 11.0) have played well enough, as has Milton (14.7), who has replaced Simmons. Philly was counting on Horford to step up his game come playoff time but that hasn't been the case. He's averaging 30.7 MPG (has started two of the three) but is averaging just 5.3 & 6.3 (averaged 11.9 & 6.8 in the regular season. Many feel as if the 76ers are 'toast' and that head coach Brett Brown "is as good as gone." However, the 76ers have had real chances to win in BOTH Games 1 and 2. Philly had a chance to win Game 1, leading 79-75 into the 4th quarter and trailed by just THREE with under a minute to go in the game. I've also detailed the team's late-game collapse in Game 3, above. Embiid was dominant in the first half during Game 3, racking up 22 points and 10 rebounds while going 6-for-11 from the floor. However, he would shoot just 1-for-9 from the floor in the second half, finishing with 30 points and 13 rebounds. Here's the rub. Embiid's been the MVP of the series in the first halves, averaging 19.0 points on 59.4-percent shooting while adding 8.7 rebounds. However, he's been held to 29.2-percent shooting in the second halves, scoring 11.0 and grabbing a modest 4.3 rebounds. Boston/Philly is the league's oldest rivalry (the franchises are meeting for the 21st time in the postseason) and the simple fact is that the Celtics last swept the 76ers in a playoff series was back in the 1957Eastern Finals, when the franchise played as played as the Syracuse Nationals. I 'm NOT predicting that the 76ers can come back and win but I don't see them going down without a fight in this one. For that to happen, the 76ers will HAVE to score more than the pathetic 98/7 PPG they've averaged through the first three games of the series. That's NOT a stretch, as Philly averaged 110.7 PPG during the regular season. In this "win-or-go-home" game, expect Philly to at least reach that season average which means, this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-20 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Goin' Over Total is on Tex/Sea Over at 9:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners beat the Texas Rangers 7-4 last night and the two AL West also-rans meet again tonight in the middle contest of a three-game series. Texas sits 10-15 (eight games back of the A's in the AL West), while Seattle's win gets them to 9-19, 10 1/2 games back of the A's but a half-game better than the last-place Angels. Neither team has much of an offense but BOTH pitching staffs have struggled in 2020. The Rangers are allowing 5.32 RPG (team ERA of 5.02) and the Mariners are allowing 5.71 RPG (5.61 team ERA). Getting right to tonight's pitching matchup, it's Jordan Lyles (1-2, 7.52) for Texas and Justus Sheffield (1-2, 4.12 ERA) for Seattle. Lyles has pitched for SIX teams since beginning his career in 2011. He was just 5-7 with a 5.36 ERA for Pittsburgh in 2019, when he was traded to Milwaukee. Why would the Brewers want him? After all, at the time of the trade, his career record was 36-59 (5.29 ERA). However, Lyles was brilliant down the stretch for the Brewers, going 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 starts (Milwaukee was 10-1). In the 'world' of baseball these days, he used the brief stretch to get a two-year, $16 million deal with the Rangers. Should we really be surprised that he's got a 7.52 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five appearances (four starts) for Texas, so far? As for Sheffield, he's "on a roll!" After going winless in his first NINE major-league starts, he finally got untracked with a victory against Colorado on Aug 9, pitching six scoreless innings without walking a batter and striking out seven. He followed that with a no-decision in Houston but allowed just two runs (one earned) on six hits in six innings, with one walk and four strikeouts. Move over Gerrit Cole! This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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08-08-20 | Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Det/Pit Under at 4:05 ET. The Detroit Tigers had their four-game series with St Louis postponed due to the Cardinals' coronavirus outbreak (Mon-Thu), so Friday's game at Pittsburgh was the team's first on the field action since the Tigers lost a doubleheader (both 7-inning games) last Sunday to the Reds. The Tigers took a 5-5 record into last night's contest in Pittsburgh, facing a Pirates team that owned MLB's worst record (3-10). What 'broke out' last night was an 11-inning slugfest in which the Tigers won 17-13 (both teams had 16 hits). The series continues late Saturday afternoon, as Ivan Nova (0-0, 4.22 ERA) takes on Derek Holland (0-0, 4.76 ERA). I will make this short and 'SWEET!' Neither Nova nor Holland are anything more than journeymen but Nova pitched for the Pirates from 2016-18 and has made 31 career starts at PNC Park, posting a 2.75 ERA. Holland has a 4.96 ERA in nine career starts vs the Pirates but his teams have gone 7-2. Expect both starters to fair well here, after last night's offensive 'explosion.' Let me remind all that Detroit entered last night's game averaging 3.80 RPG on the season, while Pittsburgh entered averaging 3.46 RPG. This game is Goin' Under! Good luck...Larry |
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07-26-20 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Total of the Week is on Col/Tex Over at 2:35 ET. The official opening of Globe Life Field was scheduled for March 31 against the LA Angels. However, COVID-19 had other plans. The Texas Rangers played their first regular-season game at their new ballpark in Arlington (cost of $1.2 billion) against the Colorado Rockies on Friday, winning 1-0. The teams played again on Saturday, with the Rockies winning 3-2. The rubber match of the three-game series is set for Sunday afternoon and after two low-scoring affairs, I'm Goin' Over the total. Taking the mound will be Colorado's Kyle Freeland (3-11, 6.73 ERA in 2019) and Texas' Corey Kluber (2-3, 5.80 in 2019 for Cleveland). Both starters are looking for bounce-back seasons. Freeland hopes to return to the form that won him 17 games in 2018, setting a franchise record with a 2.85 ERA. However, after struggling mightily last season (6.93 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .296 BAA), my thought on that is, "Good luck!" Kluber won Cy Young awards in 2014 and 2017 but after a 20-7 (2.89 ERA) season in 2018, he fractured his right arm after being hit by a line drive off the bat of Miami's Brian Anderson in early May of 2019 and his season was over for good after straining an oblique muscle in August. He made only SEVEN starts in 2019, posting a 5.80 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and saw opponents hit .297 against him. This marks his first start since May 1 of 2019 at Miami. Both these clubs are capable of scoring runs and after combining for just SIX runs in the first two games of this series, expect the teams' bats to 'wake up" on Sunday. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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03-07-20 | Washington v. Arizona OVER 139 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Washington/Arizona Over at 10:00 ET.
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03-07-20 | Jazz v. Pistons OVER 214 | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ut/Det Over at 7:05 ET.
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03-04-20 | Virginia v. Miami-FL OVER 117.5 | Top | 46-44 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* play is on UVA/Mia-Fl Over at 9:00 ET.
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia OVER 123.5 | Top | 50-52 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Duke/UVA Over at 6:00 ET.
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02-29-20 | Florida v. Tennessee OVER 130.5 | Top | 58-63 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on Florida/Tennessee Over at 2:00 ET.
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02-26-20 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 111 | Top | 56-53 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on UVA/Va Tech Over at 7:00 ET.
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