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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-11-17 | Kings +6 v. Knicks | 91-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Kings +6 |
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11-11-17 | Clippers +6.5 v. Pelicans | 103-111 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Clippers +6.5 |
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11-11-17 | Hawks +11.5 v. Wizards | 94-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Hawks +11.5 |
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11-11-17 | Arkansas State -10 v. South Alabama | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 5 m | Show |
The Red Wolves are lighting it up under star QB Justice Hansen and they have the #12 passing attack in college football. Hansen has a fine 25-7 TD to INT ratio and can run for a first down once in a while as well. That’s good because the ground attack has been pretty bad although they do get Warren Wand back for this game. South Alabama has been good against the run, but really bad vs the pass. They have been lit up by good QB's this season and are going to have major problems with Hansen. The Jags have allowed 61% completions and only picked off 3 passes all season (15 TD's). They are #11 in the Sun Belt in sacks per game and last in tackle for loss per game. Arkansas St has a great defense and are ranked #2 in the Sun Belt in yards per play allowed, #1 in sacks per game, #1 in tackle for loss per game and #1 in pass efficiency defense (51% completions; 7-8 TD to INT). This is a bad match-up for the Jags. DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones is one of the most prolific pass rushers in college football history if you go by the numbers. He is #1 all time since 2005 (37 sacks). Arkansas has just finished disposing of Georgia Southern (43-25), Coastal Carolina (51-17), Louisiana (47-3) and New Mexico St (37-21). They are motivated and fresh off a bye and get to face a similarly crappy team. Arkansas State -10 |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 9 m | Show |
The Spartans should be able to slow down the Buckeyes’ run game. Michigan St has not allowed 100 yards in a game since Oct 7 (Michigan – 102). QB Brian Lewerke is really coming into his own. It’s not often that you see a Big 10 QB throw for 400+ yards in back to back weeks and he has only thrown 5 INT in 315 attempts. The big challenge will be getting the run game going vs Ohio St. The Spartans are likely going to need another big day from their QB and underrated WR group. Based on what we have seen from Ohio St this season (#8 pass efficiency D in Big 10; #6 in sacks per game) it feels like Mich St is going to get some yards throwing the ball and score some points. Things seem to be lining up for a magical Spartans season. Ohio St is a bit wobbly and appear to be vulnerable. I think the Buckeyes are explosive enough to score some points, but their consistency in the air will be there issue vs a really good defense. Michigan State +17 |
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11-10-17 | Temple -2.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
QB Frank Nutile has been a big upgrade over Logan Marchi at QB. Nutile has completed 66% of his passes at 9 yards per attempt with a fine 5-2 TD to INT ratio in his two starts. The job is now in the hands of Nutile and he has a great set of WR's in the passing game. They have four legit playmakers out there and last season’s #1 Ventell Bryant is back in the mix this week after missing last week’s game. The running game has been behind an inconsistent offensive line, but RB Armstead is a legit #1 and all FB Nick Sharga should be able to clear some holes and help the Owls maintain some balance. The Bearcats are ranked #106 in the FBS in run defense and #116 in pass efficiency defense (only 3 INT all season), with only 9 sacks all year. Nutile was not touched last week vs Navy and he should be able to sit back and get the ball out to his playmakers. On the other side of the ball, QB Hayden Moore has a great arm, but is also inconsistent. He has only completed 56% of his passes at less than 6 yards per attempt with a 13-7 TD to INT ratio. The WR group is not especially scary and the Owls will just have to eliminate the big plays and let the pass rush go to work. Temple is #2 in the AAC in sacks per game and TFL per game. If Cincinnati get behind the chains I would exprect negative plays and INT's. Temple is moving in the right direction and have a spark with new starting QB. The defense will make more plays as the WR group should excel. Temple -2.5 |
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11-08-17 | Wolves +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 101-125 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Subscriber pick. Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 |
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11-08-17 | Knicks v. Magic -7.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
Subscriber pick. Orlando Magic -7.5 |
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11-07-17 | Nets v. Nuggets -12 | 104-112 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Denver -12 |
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11-07-17 | Bulls v. Raptors -10.5 | 114-119 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Raptors -10.5 |
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11-07-17 | Mavs +10.5 v. Wizards | 113-99 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Mavericks +10.5 |
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11-05-17 | Hornets +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 94-112 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Subscriber pick: Hornets +5.5 |
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
I get the feeling that the Redskins are having one of the most brutal stretches right now. They are decimated with injuries and get to face the Hawks, Vikes off bye and the Saints. Every good passing defense is a tough matchup for the Skins and right now they play with a banged up offensive line and travel across the country to play at Seattle. The Redskins don’t have DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, they don’t have a bye to prepare and they don’t have a magic dual threat QB. They got a mediocre Kirk Cousins behind a banged up offensive line. Trent Williams will be out, Spencer Long and Brandon Scherff didn’t practice. Swing tackle Ty Nsekhe didn’t practice. Jordan Reed is 99% out. Jamison Crowder didn’t practice. Zach Brown didn’t practice. The injury report looks even more concerning than last week for the Skins. We can’t talk about metrics here because of how banged up they are. Redskins offense cannot move the ball at Seattle. It would be completely surprising to me if they scored more than 14-17 offensive points. Seattle is going to win in the trenches easily. Cousins could be picked twice and sacked five times. The Hawks offense is weird. Their play calling is reactive to the opponent and score. If the score is tight and it’s early in the quarter, they are very predictable, trying to run with a non-existing run game. Chasing a score or before half time they go crazy with play action and vertical routes. Getting Duane Brown doesn’t fix their OL or running game but it helps Wilson processing in the pocket because he doesn’t have to account for both tackles getting beaten at the snap. The passing game should improve. The Skins defense isn’t great and they also have some injuries to deal with. The Hawks shouldn’t be forced to chase a score here. They will try to get their run game going or surprise us and put the game on ice as early as possible with a TNF game on deck. I expect them to use Jimmy Graham early and often as the Skins can’t defend TE's at all. All in all they should have enough on offense and defense to beat a mediocre and banged up Skins team by more than a TD at home. Play is on the Hawks. Seeing a 27-14 kind of game. Seattle Seahawks -7 |
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11-05-17 | Cardinals v. 49ers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
I have the home side favoured by my count, yet we are getting a full field goal of dog points. I cannot expect the Cardinals to score many points with Drew Stanton. Stanton has a TD pass in only 5 of 9 career starts and Arians always tried to limit his impact. With a good running game that approach would be clever, but the Cards struggle there too. Peterson had one good game and hasn't shown he can carry the load otherwise. There is no threat going from this offense. The Niners who will be very motivated after their recent trade for a franchise QB (not playing), will have their best chance to win a game this year, however I'll play it safe with the field goal points. 49ers +3 |
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11-05-17 | Bucs v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show |
I view the Saints as -8 favorites here and thanks to some huge sharp action, this line has come down to -6.5 over Thursday. I disagree with that line and don’t see legitimate reasons for such a huge exposure on the Bucs. The Saints have a strong and dominant offense, good pass defense. These are key factors to win a lot of games and to win a lot of games by more than one possession. The Saints offense vs the Bucs defense might be the best matchup on the board this week, equal to Houston vs Indy. By metrics, the pass-heavy Bucs still have one of the better passing offenses in the NFL, but Jameis Winston is not right and they face a really good passing defense. This game is about game script. The Bucs could be successful if they go run-heavy with Doug Martin and the Saints don’t get ahead. But I see this game being played out as the Saints scoring early and then go into their lovely run-mode in the second half to see what Jameis does with a banged up shoulder against their pass defense. If the Saints score early and often against a terrible defense, they cover -6.5 here and that’s what I lean. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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11-04-17 | Clemson -7 v. NC State | Top | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 92 h 19 m | Show |
NC State has an excellent front four, but they are going to be put to the test trying to defend the Clemson attack. The Tigers have a ton of speed and a lot of different ways to attack you on defense. QB Kelly Bryant only has 6 TD passes, but does not make many mistakes and has excellent mobility. He will most definitely slow down the Wolfpack DL. The Clemson rushing attack features three players with over 400 yards rushing (including QB Bryant) and are loaded with depth. The WR group is very talented and experienced, despite losing Mike Williams. If Clemson can keep the negative plays to a minimum (#2 ACC TFL per game allowed) as per usual they are going to most definitely have some success. NC State has yielded 20+ points in every game other than two (Furman, Pitt). Pass defense is their weakness and they need to prevent the big over the top plays and make the Tigers drive the field. They will also have to improve on 3rd down defense (#96 FBS – 46%). NC State are facing the #7 ranked defense in college football who also happen to be #1 in sacks per game in the conference. The run defense is pretty much a brick wall and NC State is up against it especially with their #1 RB Nyheim Hines hobbling with a bit of an ankle issue (left early last week). NC State can stay in this game if they can do a better job on 3rd downs (#64 FBS) and in the red zone (#110 FBS). They need TD's. Field goals will not win this game. The spread seems a bit light. Clemson did not go nuts last week, but the weather was pretty dreadful. If Bryant has his usual mobility this game should be a double digit victory. Clemson -7 |
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11-04-17 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -14 | Top | 37-48 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
The Irish are rolling this season and playing fantastic football blowing out every opponent by 20+ points other than the mighty Georgia Bulldogs (one-point loss). The Irish get another chance to inflict pain this Saturday against Wake Forest. The Irish are averaging an amazing 318 yards per game rushing (#6 FBS) and face a Wake Forest defense that was gashed for 191,427 and 190 yards in their last three games (LUA-VUH, Ga Tech, Clemson). The Deacons will be without leading tackler S Jessie Bates and that is not an ideal scenario when facing Notre Dame. RB Josh Adams is having an excellent campaign with over 1,100 yards rushing at 8.9 yards a pop and would have 3,400 yards if he played Stanford’s schedule. QB Wimbush is not Lamar Jackson, but is an excellent runner. The RB depth is gross. Keep your eye on WR Kevin Stepherson who has caught a TD pass in each of the past two games. Wake has allowed 26,28,38 and 32 in their past 4 games. Even a sluggish Notre Dame squad should get into the 30's without an issue. The Deacons just finished scoring 42 vs LUA-VUH but that defense is far from even decent. In their previous four games they scored 20,19,14 and 24 and now face one of the most underrated defenses in college football. They will be without their best offensive player WR Greg and the Irish have not allowed more than 20 points in a game in 2017. Note: Notre Dame’s OC was at Wake Forest last season. Things do not look good for Wake Forest. Notre Dame should run without mercy and its hard to see Wake get more than 14-17 points without help from the defense and/or special teams. Notre Dame -14 |
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11-01-17 | Magic +3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 101-99 | Win | 100 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
Orlando Magic +3 (subscriber pick). Note: Conley ruled out and Gasol is a game-time decision. |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 75 h 38 m | Show |
I know Steelers -2.5 looks super square here, but the line is more than fair. When seeing a square road fav line I always ask if I would take the team at that price at home, switching points for Home for Away. Steelers would be -8.5/-9 at home and that’s still a reasonable line. Big Ben seems to be back. He threw some nice passes into tight windows against Cincy and didn’t hesitate at any throw. His deep pass is still an issue but with Bell being back to his form that’s not a big deal. The Steelers are at the top of my Power Rating, offense is loaded and defense is playing really good. Steelers top all the efficiency metrics. This is a boys vs men kind of game to me. After media doubted the Steelers, this is another huge statement game for them saying “We are here” on prime time. From a matchup standpoint, I don't see how the Lions prevail here other than by turnovers or weird flags. The Lions offense is non-existent. They rank 30th in yards per play at 4.6. The only offenses worse are Miami and Baltimore. Lions can’t run the ball and can’t consistently move the ball from the pocket. Stafford is at his best when the play breaks down, but that’s not sustainable. This isn’t enough to beat the Steelers. The Lions need to rely on the pass (probably without Golden Tate) against a good passing defense with a strong pass rush that ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. Against other top-10 defenses in sack rate, Minnesota and Carolina, the Lions struggled to move the ball through the air. LT Greg Robinson is bad but he might not play so expect his replacement to be even worse against young freak TJ Watt. Don't be fooled by the Lions coming off a bye, they are the clear worse team in this matchup. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 |
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10-29-17 | Chargers +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 67 h 0 m | Show |
The Chargers overcame early season struggles and are finally playing up to their potential. Lynn finally involves Henry at 80%+ snaps and the offense got more effective. Hightower being out is a huge blow for an already bad Pats defense. They can’t cover TE's and that’s where Henry is the key for the Chargers this week as they should be successful through the air and put up points. Chargers D is playing conservative and disciplined, playing a lot of zone behind a strong pass rush by their D-line and they defend TE's very well. I expect the Pats to go run heavy here because they like to attack weaknesses and they want to keep their D sidelined. However, I think the Chargers are able to pull the upset in this one as the Pats have too many issues on their D and the Chargers D has been capable of keeping games close. The highest scoring amount they gave up was 26 to Philly. Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 |
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10-29-17 | Falcons -4.5 v. Jets | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 67 h 57 m | Show |
As bad as the Falcons offense looked the last two weeks, it’s hard to believe they put up another shit show this week. Sarkisian got officially counted on, he has to change something, otherwise he will be sacked next Monday. Atlanta comes off an embarrassing prime time loss in a game everyone expected them to play like real men to get Super Bowl revenge. They failed. This is a perfect spot to put all their frustrations on the lowly Jets who have been overperforming when it comes to their record. The Jets have played an easy schedule in terms of efficiency metrics and teams being in bad spots: survived the 0-7 Browns in a magic game, blew a lead to the Jags off London to barely win in OT, blew a 14pt lead to NE (would have been a quality win though) and blew a 14pt lead to the Fins. This team has benefited from an easy schedule and I expect them to regress in terms of scores. They have a shot at losing all their remaining games from now on. In terms of metrics they rank bottom-10 across the board despite their schedule. Their defense isn't much better, all above middle of the pack averages. This is a team waiting to get beaten by the better teams in the league. Remember what a solid Raiders offense did to them. If the Falcons jump a lead which has much better chances than Jets jumping a lead, the running game gets negated to some margin in the second half which leads to McCown spreading the ball and that smells some turnovers. If Sarkisian gets his head straight, Falcons should win a 31-17 kind of game at New York. Atlanta Falcons -4.5 |
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10-29-17 | Bears +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
I know that it looks intriguing to go with the hot Saints in their Superdome against a team that won by defensive scores recently. However, this isn’t a good matchup for the Saints. Whereas their pass defense has been playing on an extremely high level since week 2, their big and probably only weakness is defending the run and the pass to RBs. And that’s where the Bears present the perfect matchup. Chicago wants to run the ball (2nd-highest percentage in the league) with slow pace, no matter if they are playing with a lead or trailing. The Saints run D ranks 30th in yards per carry. The Saints also have allowed the 5th-most receptions to RB's. This is a great matchup for the Bears who are going to attack the ground and the short field with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen all game long. They are going to slow the game down and keep themselves in winnable situations all the way. They don’t play to get blown out. On defense, they rarely get beaten by big plays. They play the pass very well and force the opponent to beat them on the ground or by short passes. This all sums up to a low scoring game which plays to the Bears strengths on running the football. Chicago Bears +9.5 |
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10-29-17 | Vikings -9.5 v. Browns | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
The Vikings look to win their fourth straight game and put a strangle hold on the NFC North when they face the winless Browns on Sunday at London’s Twickenham Stadium. The Minnesota Vikings have found a way to win despite who plays QB, meanwhile the Cleveland Browns continue to flip flop at the helm and can't find any consistency behind center. The Vikings’ defense has been terrific, holding four straight opponents under 275 total yards to rank fourth in the league in total defense. Minnesota gave up a season-low 208 yards in a 24-16 win over Baltimore last week. Now they get a shot at rookie Deshone Kizer who gets another starting chance after getting pulled and then finding himself in hot water over the late night video which surfaced last week. The Vikings also get WR Diggs back this week which should actually help their run game, forcing the Browns secondary to play soft coverage. To make matters worse for the Browns, they lose both Myles Garrett to concussion protocol and All-Pro OL Joe Thomas who's been a rock for them for years now. Browns are 7-25-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall and Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf. Note not win/loss, against the spread. Hard to imagine, but true. Minnesota Vikings -9.5 |
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10-28-17 | UNLV v. Fresno State -20.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 37 m | Show |
Fresno have won their last two games over good teams (New Mexico, San Diego St) by a combined score of 55-3 and show no sign of slowing down. UNLV has shown a few signs of promise, but more signs of being a bad team. Fresno St has demonstrated an excellent balance between the run and pass, and to top it off, QB McMaryion has completed 65% of his passes with an excellent 7-1 TD to INT ratio. The running game features three players with 270+ yards rushing and the ball is distributed well when they decide to utilise the passing game. The Rebels also feature one of the worst defenses in the FBS and should be easy pickings for the Bulldogs. UNLV QB Armani Rogers is listed as doubtful due to concussion protocol. I cannot imagine the Rebels subjecting him with playing a road game at Fresno St. If Kurt Palandech gets the nod this week, things do not look pretty. Fresno St is #3 in the Mountain West in yards per play allowed and #17 in the FBS in total defense. They have not allowed a TD in 9 quarters. Fresno State -20.5 |
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10-28-17 | TCU -6 v. Iowa State | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -118 | 46 h 52 m | Show |
The Horned Frogs have been rolling right along this season with a very potent and balanced attack. QB Kenny Hill has a fine 15-3 TD to INT ratio and has completed 70% of his passes. They are ranked #36 in the FBS rushing and #35 passing. They have a great 1-2 punch at RB and ELEVEN different players have caught a TD pass in 2017. The Horned Frogs are also still #1 in 3rd down conversion offense and face an Iowa St defense ranked #105 in the FBS in 3rd down defense. TCU is #1 in the Big 12 in sacks allowed per game. They are also the #2 pass efficiency D in the conference. TCU is very difficult to run on (#3 FBS) so it seems like the Cyclones are going to have a lot of trouble moving the ball. TCU has won the last three meetings by scores of 41-20, 45-21 and 55-3. The weather forecast is cold and windy. That should help the defenses, and theoretically, limit the damage that Iowa St can do in the passing game. TCU is bottom line the better team here and should be able to cover a touchdown spread and more. TCU -6 |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 29 m | Show |
Ohio St has been steamrolling opponents (54,56,62,56 points in the last four games), but realistically those were glorified exhibition games when you consider they beat UNLV, Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska. JT Barrett has a 21-1 TD to INT ratio while averaging almost 9 yards per pass. He has also rushed for 359 yards and 5 TD's and does a great job picking up first downs with his legs. The running game is deep and explosive. J.K. Dobbins has 775 rushing yards and overall the running game is going to be difficult to defend this week. The passing game is improving and have now accumulated 24 receiving TD's as a team (10 different players). Despite Penn State's ability on defense, Ohio St is a tough team to pin down in the backfield. 3rd downs are going to be big on Saturday and Ohio St is converting 49% on 3rd downs (#10 FBS) and need to play keep-away. The key match-up is going to be the ability of Penn St to achieve success in the passing game. Ohio St is ranked just #7 in the Big 10 in pass defense efficiency and will be in for a stern test when you consider worrying about Barkley. I believe that Ohio St has a big situational edge (off a bye; Penn St off big win over Michigan) and is rounding into form on offense. Coach Meyer is great off a bye and the weather is not going to help the Penn St passing game. Ohio State -6 |
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10-27-17 | Florida State v. Boston College +4 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
The Seminoles have been struggling on offense this season and have only scored 11 offensive TD's. Freshman QB James Blackman has not been the problem. Yes, he makes mistakes, but he is a true freshman operating behind a suspect offensive line. The Seminoles are last in the ACC in sacks and tackle for loss allowed per game. The running game has been respectable despite the negative plays and mistakes, but they have not been able to supplement that with a dangerous passing attack. Boston College is #8 in the FBS and #2 in the ACC in pass efficiency defense (6 TD 12 INT) and I do not see Florida St doing a ton of damage in the passing game. They will hit some shots, but it those will likely be countered by negative plays and mistakes. They will be without RB J Patrick (surgery) who was one of their 1-2 punch. The Eagles are starting to click on offense racking up over 500 yards per game in both of their past two wins. The balance has been excellent (364/191 run pass mix vs LUA-VUH; 237/275 vs Virginia) and QB Anthony Brown is coming off his best game of the season. Freshman RB AJ Dillon ripped apart LUA-VUH for over 270 yards and 4 TD's and Jon Hilliman provides great depth. Not to mention the mobility of Brown. Six players have 100+ receiving yards and eight guys have at least one TD reception. Florida St has done a nice job defending the run this year other than vs Lamar Jackson. Boston College will almost certainly not approach 500 yards, but they are going to be a handful for the Noles and will test their discipline. Florida St only has 3 INT's this year and 11 sacks. They are just not being disruptive enough. Boston College is #1 in the ACC in sacks allowed per game. Forget about the rosters in August. Right now – these teams are really close in overall talent level given the injuries that the Seminoles are dealing with and Boston College is full of confidence and playing well. The Eagles are playing for a bowl bid and should come out motivated. Boston College +4 |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
This is a phenomenal buy low spot to take the Ravens. Baltimore is the home side with a strong defense on a short week against a team that is getting overpriced. The Fins have more wins than I thought they would have, but each one occured by one possession. They are a bottom three team on average by all significant metrics. They are a 2-4 team by metrics but they somehow sneaked to 4-2. Now they travel to Baltimore on a short week with a QB change. I am low on Matt Moore and there is a reason Adam Gase went with Cutler out of retirement instead of Moore. Moore consistently tries to throw games away. Last season he got away with fluky wins before exploding vs Steelers in the playoffs. The Ravens defense is really good. Their pass defense ranks 5th in DVOA and their run defense is expected to improve because their best run defender Brandon Williams was out for 4 games. At their home turf, they are going to make the job of Matt Moore and a harmless Dolphins offense who got some injuries very hard and should create turnovers. The Dolphins run offense is averaging 3.3 YPC, good for 30th in the league and 0.8 YPC below average. I don’t see how they do anything tonight. On the flip side, the Ravens offense has knowingly struggele. However, the Ravens have a better offensive matchup than the Dolphins vice versa. The Ravens offense also faced one of the toughest schedules this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw the Ravens scoring in the 24-27 range along with a defensive score. That should be enough to cover because the defense will take care of the rest. I like the Ravens to cover -3 here vs the Dolphins. Baltimore Ravens -3 |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs +5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
The Mavericks last game against the Golden State Warriors left an awful taste in their mouth having been blown out and with Dennis Smith Jr. being called out after by Draymond Green. Rick Carlisle is simply too good of a head coach to not motivate his group in this game against another quality opponent. If they don't simply outright win, we have 5 points to work with. I expect a solid effort across the board for the Mavericks tonight. Dallas Mavericks +5 |
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10-24-17 | Pelicans +5 v. Blazers | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
Subscriber pick. New Orleans Pelicans +5 |
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10-24-17 | Bulls v. Cavs -14.5 | Top | 112-119 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
A horrible spot for the Bulls. Cleveland got embarrassed at home against the Magic and can't wait to get back out on the floor to ball. For those who follow Lebron's Twitter, he's been saying exactly that. This is pure situational spot for the Cavs and also against a depleted Bulls roster. Should be 20-25 point win. Note: Wade coming off the bench is a good thing imo. You'll see him motivated to perform and contribute in this new roll. Cleveland Cavaliers -14.5 |
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10-23-17 | Hawks v. Heat -11 | 93-104 | Push | 0 | 1 h 56 m | Show | |
Atlanta's roster is filled with a ton of unknowns and they sit at 1-2 with two straight losses. It can't help they lost both Illyasova and Schroder, played a tough game last night in Brooklyn and now come into Miami on a back to back (4th straight road game) It's too much change and too much to ask and I could easily see them lie down in this one. Meanwhile there's some excitement in Miami and the fans can feel it. Miami is 1-1 after winning a good game against rival Pacers in Miami on Saturday. Whiteside is out tonight, but Olynyk and Mickey filled in nicely. But Dragic going against the backup PG for the Hawks is not a good. I expect them to cover this spread. Miami Heat -11 |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 124 h 57 m | Show |
Super Bowl revenge! This isn’t the same Pats team most are used to seeing, especially on defense. The regression is obvious for the Falcons offense (int's & tipped int's) this year but they are still very efficient. They ran very well vs the Pats in the SB and this time they get an even worse Pats defense. Falcons should run all day and the Pats don’t have the CB's to match up well with Julio, Sanu and Gabriel. They are also giving up the 2nd most receptions and most yards to RB's, which is certainly a bad matchup vs Atlanta due to their two header monster backfield in Freeman and Coleman. The Falcons can use their full arsenal of weapons and should move the ball all day long. If they get a key stop more on offense, this 3.5 line should hit. Atlanta Falcons +3.5 |
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10-22-17 | Cowboys v. 49ers +6 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
I think this line is too high for the Cowboys even though I think they will look better during the next few weeks. CJ Beathard definitely looks quite a bit better than Brian Hoyer. His peak plays were good last week. Cowboys defense gives up tons of points, that’s why their overall scoring differential is just +1 on the season so far. Niners finally return home after a tough road stretch and even though Dallas comes off their bye, I don’t see this line to be justified. Niners didn’t get blown out since Week 1 and always hung tough. Kyle Shanahan keeps pressing the gas pedal until the last minute and even though they don’t have a competitive roster yet, they always provide you with backdoor chances. Home game, nothing to lose, new QB, one of the better run defenses who get Foster back – I really like the six points here. San Francisco 49ers +6 |
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10-22-17 | Saints -4 v. Packers | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 159 h 29 m | Show |
On top of Rogers going down, the Packers O-Line is in serious question entering this matchup. Regardless if David Bakthiari and Brian Bulaga play, they've had no reps with new QB Brett Hundley this week so they won't be familiar with his pocket presence/movement and it should allow for a field day for the Saints DT's - defensive end Cameron Jordan has registered five sacks already on the year. I expect Hundley and the Packers to attempt to counter this by trying to get rid of the ball very quickly and the Saints D-Coordinator well aware of this and play press coverage everywhere. Besides quick throws expect to see a lot of runs and screens, I don't expect Hundley to open up the offense in his first career start. The one thing he can do is scramble, so the Saints should be actively ready to play contain. On the other side of the ball, things are really coming together for the Saints. They've rattled off three straight wins after an 0-2 start and quarterback Drew Brees sees things falling into place. "I think we've gotten better every week in certain ways," Brees told reporters. "Obviously, we have some momentum. We like the direction that we are going. We understand the things that have happened these last three weeks that've allowed us to win.". One of these things being the running game certainly. Look for Ingram and Kamara to continue their excellent play as of late and to get big chunks of yardage on Sunday against a defense which has struggled against the run allowing 119.8 yards per game (24th in NFL). New Orleans Saints -4 |
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10-22-17 | Panthers v. Bears +3 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 110 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
THe Panthers are in a slightly better situation because they come off a Thursday game and Bears come off a tough overtime game at Baltimore. Some key injuries to monitor as Luke Kuechly is still in the concussion protocol and I doubt he plays, and Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t practiced. It really surprises me that the Panthers are one of the biggest public plays this week as I believe the Bears are a tough underrated team to beat at their home turf. The Bears are 3-0 ATS at home. They played a tough schedule and got blown out twice when Mike Glennon and company destroyed themselves with company. With Trubisky and Kyle Long back healthy, they ground and pound and play it save. Bears have a good front seven, a strong running game and a solid young QB. Panthers struggle to run the ball whole season and even if Ryan Kalil is back, I am having a hard time seeing them running efficiently on that Bears front seven. A field goal at home should provide a lot of opportunity for the cover. Chicago Bears +3 |
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10-21-17 | Pacers +9.5 v. Heat | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Both big men (Whiteside & Turner) are out for each club, which leaves a very evenly matched unit of both sides of these Eastern Conference foes. If I was to look at the box score tomorrow on this game I wouldn't be surprised if Indy won straight-up, however a cover is certainly likely. No need for a lot of write-up in this one, rather I see a competitive game between two relatively similar teams and it should be within 10 points certainly. Pacers +9.5 |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
The Irish have piled up 300+ rushing yards in 4 games already this season and now get to face a banged up USC defensive line unit. QB B. Wimbush has been an electric runner (8 TD's) and is developing a nice passing game (6-2 TD to INT ratio). The strength of the team is the excellent offensive line that is almost certainly one of the best in the FBS. RB J. Adams is well on his way to a 1,000 yard season and the backfield is loaded with depth. The game plan will be to punish the Trojans’ front 7 with a relentless and deep rushing attack and hit some big plays in the passing game when the opportunity arises. Notre Dame has managed to outscore their opposition by 20+ in every game this season other than the one point loss to Georgia. Notre Dame -3 |
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10-20-17 | Colorado State -7 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
Colorado St continues on their DATE WITH DESTINY and a spot in the Mountain West Title game. There are a lot of hurdles to jump over before the end of the season but a 3-0 start in conference play is never a bad thing. Colorado St is #9 in the FBS in total offense with fantastic balance between the run and the pass. QB Nick Stevens is on a mission completing 64% of his passes with a 18-6 TD to INT ratio. The run game is loaded with 1-2 punch D. Dawkins and I. Matthews rushing for 1,100 yards and 9 TD's whilst the passing game is complemented with a loaded receiving corps. Michael Gallup is phenomenal as he has almost reached the 1,000-yard mark, after posting 1,200 yards and 14 receiving TD's in 2016. Colorado St has yielded just 2 sacks all season. New Mexico allowed 49 points in this matchup in 2016. Colorado St has won seven straight games in the series by an average of 17+ points per game. Colorado State -7 |
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10-20-17 | Magic +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 13 m | Show |
Orlando Magic +1.5 "Subscriber Pick" |
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10-20-17 | Pistons +6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 1 h 49 m | Show |
Detroit Pistons +6.5 "Subscriber pick" |
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10-19-17 | Clippers -5 v. Lakers | Top | 108-92 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
A season opening battle of LA, but a battle it won't be. The Clippers will show their dominance this evening against the up and coming Los Angeles Lakers. Don't be weary of Chris Paul no longer being there or lob city coming to and end, the Clippers picked up the best point guard in all of Europe. Milos Teodosic is a 31 year crafty veteran. A pro since the age of 17, you'll see Teodosic make Ball look like a true rookie this evening and for lob city to be in full effect. This guy has all the tools to pick up right where the Clippers left off and more. As well, the Clippers pick up Patrick Beverly who is an elite defender and really gets under the skin of opposing PG's. So whoever he matches up with is sure to have a long night. On the other side of the ball, the most impressive player you might see tonight is forward Kyle Kuzma, but when it's all said and done this will be a comfortable Clippers victory. Los Angeles Clippers -5 |
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10-19-17 | Memphis +3 v. Houston | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
Memphis has lost over half a dozen projected starters on defense, but are getting better as the season moves along. They are certainly not elite, but are +7 in turnover margin and #4 in the conference in tackles for loss per game. They are playing with a lot of confidence right now coming in to tonight's game. Houston is going to get their yards, but I don’t see them shredding Memphis to pieces. QB Riley Ferguson is really starting to tally the stats (19-5 TD to INT ratio) and it does not hurt having a loaded backfield and one the best WR's in college football (Anthony Miller) at your disposal. Miller had 14 TD receptions and over 1,400 yards receiving last season and has already booked 9 TD's in 2017. D Henderson and P Taylor are a great RB combo and Tulsa just lit up Houston for almost 300 yards on the ground despite having no threat of a passing game. Houston’s defense has been a disappointment so far as they are ranked #83 in the FBS after really fine performances in 2016 and 2015. Houston was shredded by Texas Tech and SMU through the air and appear to be in tough this week vs a team with a stud QB and a good rushing attack. Memphis has the more explosive skill position players and are the more hungry team. I also prefer their head coach, the ability to create turnovers and their special teams. Memphis +3 |
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10-19-17 | Bulls v. Raptors -12 | Top | 100-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
The Bulls are reeling and the Raptors are all business. I see this one being an easy 20 pt win. Not only are the Raptors better at every position on the floor, this season is all or nothing in terms of taking a run at the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile the Bulls are in complete rebuild mode after trading away all their veterans. To make matters worse they had a fight within their own team this past week, leaving Mirotic with a broken jaw and Portis suspended 8 games. These two play the same position, so the Bulls come into this season opener extremely behind the eight ball. Toronto Raptors -12 |
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10-18-17 | Hawks v. Mavs -5.5 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
I've looked over the Hawks roster closely and this team looks to be in for a long long season. They got rid of all their core players over the last 5 years and I see no way they have a shot at the playoffs. It appears to be a complete rebuild. The Mavericks are still very relevant and acquire through the draft in my opinion the real #1 pick in Dennis Smith Jr. This kid has all the tools for success and will surely be an all-star sooner than later. Don't forget about Dirk - he's looked fresh in preseason. Mavs coast in this one. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 |
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10-18-17 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
The Bucks got to watch their opening opponent live on national tv last night and should be ready to go against a Celtics squad who is surely still adjusting to Hayward going down with a horrific injury. Think about all the planning and practice Brad Stevens ran around the idea of Hayward on the floor. Now the Celtics are forced to adjust over night to a Bucks team which is looking to improve year over year and literally have the exact same team as last season and have been on the rise over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 |
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10-17-17 | Rockets v. Warriors -9 | Top | 122-121 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
The nucleus of this Warriors team doesn't have championship hangover in their vocabulary. They just want to compete at the highest level as long as possible and for them there really is no off-season. I expect a real showcase opener tonight for the Warriors who have the identical team as last year essentially and get to open the season at home (ring ceremony = motivation) against a team which believes to have found the missing piece in Chris Paul. The issue with the Rockets is they gave up their best guard defender in Beverly (Clippers) who was really the only one who gave Curry issues. Curry has always roasted Paul and that won't change. Paul doesn't have near the defensive intensity that Beverly had and that will be a huge adjustment for the Rockets to make in exchange for a better floor general. The other question is who controls the ball for Houston after D'Antoni made such a great adjustment last year allowing everything to flow through Harden. You can't turn Paul into a SG, so unless they are playing on different units that free flowing offense from last year is going to experience some real chemistry issues. Look for a high scoring game and the Warriors weapons to get open looks at will. Golden State Warriors -9 |
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10-17-17 | Celtics v. Cavs -3 | Top | 99-102 | Push | 0 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
There a lot of new toys for the Celtics to showcase tonight versus Cleveland, however a great team on paper rarely starts the year off well when they are new additions. The Miami Heat first come to mind when you think about acquiring two big pieces and starting off cold due to chemistry issues. Just like the Heat, the Celtics bring in Irving and Hayward and although I think they will be a good team, it may take some time for everything to come together. On the other side of the ball you have Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers who are really the same team which continues to be the best in the East, except that they lose Irving who just happens to be on the Celtics. Isiah Thomas is his replacement, but being injured they also brought in former league MVP Derrick Rose. If you've been watching any pre-season to date, you've probably seen that Rose is looking ultra quick and confident. The best part being he's not going to be asked to be the main guy which I think suits him best. They also get Dwayne Wade who Lebron and Wade is very comfortable playing with. Boston may be the younger team overall, but being a national tv game on opening night will favour the veterans and the more complete and seasoned team which I believe to be the Cavs. Cleveland Cavaliers -3 |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 Full analysis coming soon. |
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10-15-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
L.A. Chargers +3.5 Full analysis coming soon |
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10-15-17 | Rams +1 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
Subscriber pick. |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 121 h 20 m | Show |
New Orleans Saints -4.5 Full analysis coming soon |
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10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
I like the Browns again this week. I still don’t know how they lost last week – it was an historical game in terms of losing while completely out gaining the opponent. This line is wrong again in my point of view, as crazy as it sounds. From last year’s great defensive unit, the Texans are without Bouye, Demps, Cushing, Wilfork, Kevin Johnson, Simon, Mercilus and (Watt). They couldn’t stop the pass this season and now they are down another two key players to their front seven. The Browns’ best unit is their offensive line and when Clowney plays against Joe Thomas, I don’t know how this front seven is gonna create consistent pressure or stop the run consistently. I think Kevin Hogan would play with more confidence than Kizer this week but the Browns should absolutely move the ball in this one. Browns must have started giving Hue Jackson the count after last week and this week we should expect more conservative play-calling inside the red zone to get points on the board. I think this game is decided in the fourth quarter and the Texans shouldn’t lay double digits to anyone this week. Cleveland Browns +10 |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
Update: Brady was officially removed from the injury report on Friday. The Jets might be one of the worst 3-2 teams in recent history. They played maybe the easiest defensive stretch possible (MIA, JAX, CLE) and benefited from either great spots or a complete red zone collapse from CLE. Browns could have led 20-0 at halftime. The Jets are the first team since 1994 to rush for fewer than 35 yards and to pass for fewer than 180 yards in a game against the Browns. Note that Powell and Forte appear to be out, leaving Elijah McGuire to handle the load. I expect the Patriots to continue to work out their defensive woes in this one and score at a healthy amount of points. New England Patriots -9 |
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10-14-17 | Arkansas v. Alabama -31 | Top | 9-41 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
Alabama continued their dominance last week with a tougher than expected road win over the scrappy Texas A&M team. With Tennessee on deck it certainly appears that the Roll Tide will coast into November with an undefeated record. They boast the #1 run defense in the FBS and should be able to make things very ugly for the Razorbacks who got beat badly on the road last week at South Carolina and gave up three defensive TD's. QB Austin Allen is a loose cannon and he's listed as questionable. Back-up Cole Kelley may be the QB of the future, but getting your first game action versus Alabama will probably not go well. This certainly feels like a big time blowout. Arkansas can only boast wins over Florida A&M and New Mexico St. Alabama -31 |
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10-14-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Florida | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 123 h 10 m | Show |
Florida does not have much of a passing game with the absence of WR Antonio Callaway and the injury to WR Tyrie Cleveland. Texas A&M is #1 in the SEC in both sacks per game and tackles for loss per game while also featuring a solid run defense. The Gators are going to have trouble moving the ball and will need help with some short fields. After a bit of a slow start getting used to the speed of the game, QB Kellen Mond has done well. The mobility is also there, but Texas A&M prefers to do their damage on the ground with a deep stable of running backs led by T Williams and K Ford (12 rushing TD's combined). Florida yielded over 200 yards rushing to Michigan and LSU and the Vols put up 183. The Aggies have put up 179+ in each contest other than versus Alabama. WR Christian Kirk is very reliable and a great return man as well. This offense has some dangerous weapons and will eventually crack some big ones. The better team is Texas A&M. They have won the yardage battle (+257) vs their competition this season while the Gators have been outgained by 130 yards. They have both faced similarly tough schedules with the Gators’ being a bit more challenging overall. The Aggies are fresher, more confident and more talented given the lack of depth right now on the Florida roster. Texas A&M +3 |
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10-14-17 | Wyoming +3 v. Utah State | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 46 h 38 m | Show |
The Aggies’ offense has been struggling this season against everyone other than Idaho St and San Jose St. Kent Myers continues to have interception problems and the running game is going nowhere. To make things even more fun they are ranked LAST in the conference that includes San Jose St in sacks per game allowed and tackle for loss per game allowed. That is bad news facing a Wyoming defense that can get after the quarterback and is getting healthy coming off a much needed bye week. Utah St scraped together 288, 212 yards the past two weeks and Wyoming has only allowed 263, 195, 202 yards to the offenses they have faced. QB Josh Allen is a supreme physical talent if you believe NFL scouts and he did lead the team to a division title last season. RB T Woods is averaging 5 yards per run and will hopefully be able to get some yards against a run defense that is allowing 195 yards per game. I have a feeling that Wyoming will use the bye week to their advantage and be able to do enough to make plays against a mid-range defense. I see advantages across the board. QB. HC. Defense. Special teams. Wyoming still has all of their goals in front of them and are fresh and healthier at the right time. Wyoming +3 |
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10-14-17 | Northern Illinois -4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
QB Daniel Santacaterina apparently had trouble with the weather conditions and NIU decided to go with dual threat QB Marcus Childers most of the way vs Kent St. The weather looks good for this weekend’s contest and we expect to see both of these men in action. Santa is still the more dangerous passer, but Childers gives the defense a different look and more potential problems to think about. RB Jordan Huff has been really good this season and has over 400 yards rushing in five games this season. I expect him to fly over 1,000 yards once MAC play gets into gear. They have not been explosive in the passing game, but showed some flashes of brilliance on the road vs San Diego St. FAU ran for 262 yards and even Colgate ran for 167. Northern Illinois ran for over 300 yards in last season’s match-up. Northern Illinois brings a weapon in DE Sutton Smith to town and he has tallied 7 sacks and 13 tackle for loss. Northern Illinois boasts the #1 pass efficiency defense in the MAC and have only allowed 51% completions whilst picking off 9 passes. The run defense has also been excellent allowing only 2.5 yards per carry despite playing BC, Nebraska and San Diego St. NIU is #1 in the FBS in yards per play allowed and are going to make things difficult for the Bulls. The Bulls have struggled getting to the quarterback this season ranking 7th in the MAC in sacks per game and 9th in tackles for loss. Buffalo is coming off a seven-OT game in which they spilled their guts on the field. This is a tough spot and match-up facing an elite secondary. Northern Illinois -4.5 |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Short week off blowout win for the Eagles. They have been looking really good, but they also have wins over 0-5 NYG, 1-4 LAC, 2-2 WSH and 2-3 ARI. I am seeing a letdown. Their best offensive lineman Lane Johnson is in the concussion protocol and we can’t expect him to start. That’s a terrible blow to what seems to be the best OL in the league right now. The offensive efficiency vastly decreased with his absence in 2016. The only thing that kills Wentz this year is pressure and the Panthers should provide that. Backup Vaitai will have a hard time against Addison and Johnson. Panthers defense has one of the best LB corps in the league and they defend TE's very well – Zach Ertz is is by far the favorite target of Wentz and leads all receivers far ahead with 32 receptions. Wentz is 33/61 when targeting Jeffery and Smith. If you take away Ertz and provide pressure, I wouldn’t be afraid about that matchup for Carolina. On the flip side, the Eagles defense hasn’t been playing to what our expectations were. They rank 25th in NYPPA (6.8) and the Panthers passing offense ranks 9th at 6.9 NYPPA and is the best they face year to date. Cam Newton finally looked like his former self the last two games and that offense should be a threat to the Eagles. Carolina Panthers -3 |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +4 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Finally Mitch Trubisky gets the start. Better accuracy, better pocket presence, better legs than Glennon. And Vikes don’t really have tape on Trubisky. This is a great spot for the Bears at home on MNF. Rumors are that players also asked for a QB change – that’s huge. The team will bring everything on MNF. Bears have a good front seven and I don’t expect the Vikes to get anything done on the ground with a banged up Murray and McKinnon. Cook is just such a huge loss. Keenum had a great game against a decimated TB defense, but now comes back to reality without a run game. Bears will get this thing done in a great spot with a strong run game and a better QB who will get some first downs with his legs. Chicago Bears +4 |
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10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -2 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
I love the Cowboys here despite Green Bay coming off rest. GB are overvalued in this one after home wins vs 1 - 3 teams. Packers are a mediocre road side, just 15-15 straight up against the spread on the road since 2014 and they struggle against good offenses because their defense still isn’t where it should be in order to be dominant. Cowboys are off a backdoor loss and on revenge after losing to GB in the playoffs. Cowboys are also getting healthier on defense (Irving back from susp, more CB depth) while the Packers are still banged up. They don’t have a running back tomorrow, Davante Adams is banged up, both starting tackles were only limited and so on. I think the Cowboys come out extremely focused in this one and use their offense to control the clock and I expect Zeke to have a big game. Dallas Cowboys -2 |
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10-08-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Bengals | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -121 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
The Bengals had a very easy game last week and as you saw with the Ravens last week, coming off blowouts doesn't usually bode well (let down spot). The Bills have a positive turnover margin, whereas the Bengals give up the ball. The Bills match up well with the Bengals because they got a superior matchup in the trenches defensively. Bills are playing great on D overall. McDermott gets everything out of the 4-3. Its tough to see the Bengals moving the ball efficiently against the Bills. They played a banged up Packers D scoring only 17 offensively and beat a bad Browns defense missing their best players. The Bills are a different animal. Note that the Bills offense gets Cordy Glenn back and Tyrod Taylor and crew should be able to muster up enough points to find a cover in this one. Buffalo Bills +3.5 |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
The Jets look good, the Browns look bad – everyone is grabbing the Jets as a “no-brainer”. Before the season started I had this line at Browns -5.5 and I don't think a lot has changed. The Jets won against the Dolphins who are a bad team who were in a terrible travelling spot. Then they got the Jags without rest off their London trip and almost blew that game. It’s interesting how the perception on the Jets has since adjusted. This is a true road game off a long overtime win and the Browns stay at home. This is the Browns Super Bowl because they know if they can win one game this year it’s this one. Myles Garrett will line up this week, Danny Shelton their best lineman comes back and Jamie Collins also likely comes back. Collins often plays the strong side and in blitz packages. That’s three important players on D coming back that will make the Jets OL look bad. The Jets offense is plain bad and they almost gave the game away last Sunday. They are going to make mistakes and the Browns simply want this one more. Cleveland Browns +1 |
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10-08-17 | Cardinals v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
The Cardinals come off a long divisional overtime game to play an early eastern game against a legit team. The Eagles are a top-10 offense by metrics and haven't faced any bad defenses as of yet which should really help them against a stellar Cards D. Play calling was decent vs LA, many play actions and a good mix of run/pass. Smallwood is out today, so look for Blount and Clement to control the ball. Arizona has a decent D by metrics, but they played SF, IND and DET – their numbers are inflated. I am not sold as a top-10 unit yet. Cards OL is one of the worst in the league and will be overmatched by Philly front seven. Cards will struggle moving the ball and their only hope is to create turnovers. I like Philly in this one. Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 |
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10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7.5 | 30-9 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
The Jaguars play their third consecutive road game including a London trip, coming off overtime to play against one of the best home teams in the league. The Jaguars can’t stop the run to save their lives which will make Bell look like his 2016 version. Steelers D is riding Top 5 in metrics,because they played against bad passing offenses, but they get another bad passing offense this week. This game is screaming blowout to me. The only thing that’s concerning is Big Ben's inaccuracy or missing wide out receivers (Brown!). Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
The Matthew Stafford bailout streak ends today. Vikes had 3 fumbles off which Lions scored 11 of 14 points and Stafford had 4 dropped interceptions during the game. In terms of metrics, the Lions offense is easy bottom 10 material. Lions have a turnover ratio of +9 thus far which would be +36 over a season. They can’t sustain that. This has to be the week when the Lions luck goes outta the window. Panthers off huge win and back to back road games, but Lions off huge divisional win. Panthers likely getting Kalil and Samuel back which would be huge. It seems that Newtons injury isn’t an issue anymore, because they finally used Newtons legs again on QB draws and power runs etc. That threat combined with McCaffrey is the reason I was so high on that offense. Panthers should win this one if they don’t fumble the ball away three times, but I'll take the generous field goal cover. Carolina Panthers +3 |
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10-07-17 | Arkansas -2 v. South Carolina | Top | 22-48 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
Arkansas is sitting at 2-2 and really need a win before tough games with Alabama and Auburn. South Carolina has been in a tailspin after opening the season at 2-0. The Hogs bring a pretty solid run game to town with three 200+ yard rushers and will be pounding the South Carolina defense for four quarters. South Carolina transfer David Williams has five 5 TD's already this season and will be just one of the rotation that hopes to do some damage. QB Austin Allen should be able to hit some big plays in the passing game. The good news is that the Gamecocks’ defense has not been great this season and are ranked 8th in the SEC in yards per play defense, 13th in sacks and #113 in 3rd down defense. Arkansas has scored 40+ in 3/4 games and should be able to very productive on Saturday. The Gamecocks have had a rough time on offense recently and the OL is the main reason. They have no running game and cannot protect the passer. The running game has been horrible (#122 FBS) and we worry about the offense being too one-dimensional. They had eight three and outs vs Texas A&M last week and are a bit banged up on the OL. Losing WR Deebo Samuel was a huge blow to the offense and special teams. There is no doubt that Arkansas is going to hold a sizeable edge in rushing yards. The defenses are probably close to equal, but the Razorbacks’ offense should have more success and more balance. South Carolina has only managed to score 13,17 and 17 in their past three games and the OL is a mess. Arkansas -2 |
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10-07-17 | Miami-FL -3 v. Florida State | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 28 m | Show |
The 3-0 Hurricanes have been very balanced on offense so far (#22 rushing in FBS, #36 passing) and are sure to provide some challenges for the Florida St defense. QB Malik Rozier has been solid with an 8-2 TD to INT ratio to go along with great mobility. RB Mark Walton is averaging 9.2 yards per carry, but has been injury prone. The Canes are glad to have WR Ahmmon Richards back in the fold and he looked really good vs Duke last week. Nobody expected Florida St to lose starting QB Francois to injury and have to deal with a tough schedule riding on the back of a true freshman. James Blackmon looked pretty good to vs NC State and not as good vs Wake Forest. The big issue I see is the offensive line which is ranked last in the FBS in TFL allowed per game. Miami caused all kinds of trouble for Duke with their DL and front 7 so this is going to be a really tough match-up for the Seminoles. The Hurricanes are #2 in the ACC in sacks per game and TFL per game. Florida St has some talent at RB, but it is hard to get things going when the OL is struggling. They are going to take their deep shots on offense, but I find it hard to believe they can score enough points to win without several big plays and/or help from the defense. This feels like the best possible scenario for Miami given their hunger for a win in the series and the unfortunate injury to the starting QB at Florida St. Miami -3 |
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10-07-17 | Kent State v. Northern Illinois -23.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 27 m | Show |
Northern Illinois enter MAC play with a win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers and a near-win over San Diego St. The Huskies are not statistically relevant at this point, but they have played a pretty tough schedule. RB Jordan Huff is an underrated player and WR Blake is developing into a fine top option. Kent St is ranked #115 in the FBS in total defense. Kent St QB Bollas had a fine day passing vs Buffalo last week, but now faces the best secondary in MAC. True freshman Crum hit a 70 yard TD pass last week, but is not going to be much of a threat vs the N Illinois defense. Despite playing a tough schedule the Huskies are #15 in the FBS in total defense. Kent St is #115 in total offense and note that this is a much different offense with Bollas at QB. Expect no running game. Even rock solid RB J Rankin is going to have problems. It is hard to imagine Kent St exceeding their team total. This feels like a blowout. Kent St has played some tough teams so far, but have lost by 53,21 and 38 to FBS teams. The Huskies just might be the best team in the conference. Northern Illinois -23.5 |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 0 m | Show |
Last game out, the Bucs moved the ball pretty well against a good defense (Giants) without turnover help. Folk missed 7 points (2 field goals, 1 extra point) and the Bucs had a TD reversed and settle only for a field goal from the 1 yard line (also a missed 2pt conversion). So on a different day they score 36 plus points on the Giants defense. Tampa's personnel presents a major mismatch for NE because they can’t cover Evans/Jackson, Brate/Howard and their front seven is too slow and too non disruptive to stop Doug Martin. New England defense ranks 32nd in tight end yards and 31st in receptions. Pats gave up 26+ at home vs offenses with much less talent than Tampa Bay. Pats look like a no-brainer because they are off a loss, but the line is simply too high. There are many chances for a home cover even though their injury report on defense (Kwon Alexander especially) is concerning. Tampa Bay +6 |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
The Kansas City Chiefs are rolling right now and the last place Kirk Cousins would probably like to play on the road in primetime would be in Arrowhead Stadium. The Washington Redskins have a lot of potential against bad defenses (Rams, Raiders), but they are going to struggle against good defenses. Andy Reid has had one extra day to prepare (Redskins coming off MNF) and despite how good the Redskins looked against the Raiders win Week 3, expect a complete turn around tonight in terms of quality of play. Justin Houston and the Chiefs defense will bait Cousins into making mistakes and the Chiefs weapons (Smith, Hunt, Kelce, Hill) will make enough plays to put up points and cover (if the defense doesn't themselves). The last unbeaten team in the league looks to stay that way with another national tv game rout. Kansas City Chiefs -7 |
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10-01-17 | Jaguars v. Jets +3.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 88 h 23 m | Show | |
Don't get confused about the Jags just yet. Yes they surprised the Ravens last week, but everything came together – great situation, great defense, perfect passing plays at the right time (no pressure to pass the ball) against a team that wasn’t ready to play. It was exactly the type of game the Jaguars so desperately want to play – run first offense that wins games on the back of their defense. Perfect setup. But at the end, the Jaguars could have won by more points, because Bortles still left some plays on the table. This week they play in a bad situation. They just travelled to London, beat the Jaguars 44-7, are hyping their QB and the “best secondary in the league”, travel back to Florida and then travel to New York on the weekend to play against a team that matches up decently with them. The Jets’ only strength going into the season was their run defense which was top-3 last year. Stopping the run though is almost completely useless if you cannot defend the pass. When the Jets faced the Raiders, it didn’t make any difference that they were quite successful against Marshawn Lynch, because the Raiders passing offense completely over-matched the Jets pass defense. The Jets were even successful defending the run against the Bills, but Tyrod Taylor is still a decent QB who executed some plays to push his team to 21 points. The Jets played against two run-first offenses who have weaknesses in the passing game (BUF, MIA) and held them to 21 and 6 points. The Miami Offense is exactly the kind of offense the Jaguars have: run-first, power run, mediocre offensive line, bad QB. The Jets are going to make the Jaguars one-dimensional and then we are going to see the typical Blake Bortles when he cannot play with a lead and he starts slinging the ball right into defenders. Josh McCown isn’t going to be successful against the Jaguars passing defense. The only success the Jets offense is going to have is on the ground and it helps that Bilal Powell may start if Forte is injured, because Powell is the more efficient runner. The Jaguars maybe have the best passing defense at this point, but they got terrified on the ground. Even the Texans had a very high success rate, but they weren’t patient enough and started forcing passes in the first half. The Jets are going to pound the ball and use a lot of screens. This is simply a field position game to force Bortles into lots of throws and poor decisions. New York Jets +3.5 |
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10-01-17 | Lions v. Vikings -1.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -118 | 65 h 8 m | Show |
It's easy to think the Lions is the pick here today, but if you read between the lines you'll see that's not the case. Last week, the Lions achieved something not many teams have achieved before. They didn’t commit a turnover, had a +3 turnover advantage and scored 26 points. Since 1989, teams in that situation are 569-12 straight up. The Lions became the 12th team to lose a game like that. Furthermore, since 2011, teams with a turnover margin of +3 and a return touchdown margin of +1 are 124-4 SU. Lions became the 4th team to do that. That game showed how overrated the Lions are. They scored 9 offensive points against the Cardinals through 3 quarters before David Johnson got hurt and the Cards exploded. They survived New York with 122 passing yards on 21 passes against a team that missed its best cornerback. And... they couldn’t even score 20 offensive points at home against the Falcons. Matt Ryan threw 3 picks and the Falcons still dropped 30 points on the Lions. The Vikings have a little revenge here after going 0-2 against the Lions in dramatic fashion in 2016. The offense is completely revamped and even though Case Keenum had an easy game last week against a decimated defense, the overall quality of the offense is really improved; the interior as a whole is playing at a high level. Dalvin Cook is a complete beast and Diggs/Thielen are probably a top-5 duo in the league. They can attack every coverage, are great route runners and have good hands. I expect the Lions defense to get exposed again this week and Keenum only has to execute and feed Dalvin Cook a lot because the Lions are poor at defending the run and bad at getting tackles and angles on the second level. Cook should have a great game. Add a possible defensive score and this should be an easy cover. Minnesota Vikings -1.5 |
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10-01-17 | Titans -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-57 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
If this is the team that everyone thinks is going to make big strides this year, they need to win games like this and take a hold on the AFC South. The Titans can't afford any steps backwards after showing their cards last week versus the Seahawks. Expect a huge effort today from their entire team, losing won't be an option like it has been in the past. Texans defense has quite a bit in injury troubles and on tape they struggle to defend the run and the pass. Titans should just run over them with their two-headed monster in Henry & Murray and they also have a favourable QB matchup if the game gets tight. Note: the favorite when these teams go head-to-head is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Tennessee Titans -2.5 |
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10-01-17 | Saints -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
Coming off games against the 0-3 L.A. Chargers and the last place in the Power Rankings N.Y. Jets, the Dolphins defense rank dead-last in passer rating and dead-last in completion percentage. Now they play against an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. Drew Brees has been playing sensational during the first three weeks despite being 1-2. The offense gets Willie Snead back from suspension this week which should help stretch the field. This offense is loaded – Ted Ginn’s speed opens up a lot of seems for Thomas, Fleener and Snead. The only thing that is still holding back the Saints offense a bit is 32-year-old Adrian Peterson. Saints should move on from him and make Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram the focus point. However, I don’t see how the Dolphins prevent the Saints from scoring a ton in this game. I don’t see many punts from the Saints. The Saints flew directly to London from Carolina on Sunday. They have a full week at London to get adjusted to the time change and the new environment. The Dolphins stayed in Miami and flew out Thursday after the practice. In a week in that Miami needs to make dramatic changes, the Saints are in the much better situation when they can get adjusted to the time change. I think this is a big advantage for them. New Orleans Saints -3 |
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV -13.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
*GAME OF THE MONTH* The struggling 1-4 San Jose St Spartans visit Las Vegas on Saturday night to face the potential UNLV Rebels in Mountain West Action. UNLV opened the season with a very bad loss to Howard, but struck back with a crushing road win over the Idaho Vandals. They followed that up with a cover vs Ohio St last week. UNLV has a very underrated offense (31.6 points per game last season) and they should be able to shred though a Spartans stop unit that has allowed 42,56,54 and 61 points vs their four FBS opponents. QB Armani Rogers and the running of RB Lexington Thomas (425 yards, 8.5 yards per carry in three games) are very dynamic. WR Devonte Boyd is a devastating weapon in the passing game. Overall the Rebels are the #8 rushing team in the FBS despite having played Ohio St. San Jose St is simply bad on defense and spend way too much time on the field. They are #125 in rushing defense and #119 in the FBS in total defense. The Spartans offense has been horrendous and they will be without the only dynamic QB on the roster in Montel Aaron. Josh Love will likely get the start and their is no running game or passing game to speak of as we go to press. It seems unlikely that San Jose St will be able to cause many problems for UNLV. UNLV -13.5 |
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09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech +8 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
The Hokies are now 14-4 in 18 games under new HC Justin Fuente and have to feel that they are ready to compete with the bog boys. The Hokies have been rock solid on defense (#28 FBS) despite playing two good offenses (West Virginia, East Carolina). Virginia Tech is ranked #6 in the FBS in 3rd down defense and are the only team in the FBS that has not given up a rushing TD yet this season. QB Joshua Jackson has been great so far. 65% completion rate and a 11-1 TD to INT ratio. Of course this week is by far his biggest challenge facing a superb Clemson defense. The good news is that the Hokies have been very balanced on offense this season (#33 rushing in FBS, #30 passing) and will at least give the Tigers a lot of things to think about on defense. The Hokies will need to get the ball in the hands of star WR Cam Phillips as often as possible in this game as he is a true game changer. Virginia Tech will have to be patient and take advantage of their opportunities to score. Note: Clemson PK Greg Huegel is out for the season so this may cause Clemson to take one too many chances on 4th down situations in VT territory. Virginia Tech +8 |
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09-30-17 | North Texas v. Southern Miss -7.5 | Top | 43-28 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 59 m | Show |
Southern Miss lost to Kentucky in week one even though they held the yardage advantage and then won their next two games over Southern and ULM (covering on both). The Eagles have a very balanced offense that should be able to move the ball effectively throughout the game. QB Kwadra Griggs has been excellent so far with a 7-1 TD to INT ratio and RB Ito Smith has 333 yards rushing and 14 receptions. The WR corps is underrated, the Eagles have 4 players with 100+ yards receiving. The Eagles’ defense is solid and are ranked #6 in the FBS in total defense, #39 against the run, #3 in pass efficiency defense and #2 in 3rd down defense. The North Texas defense is ranked #79 in the FBS and #100 in 3rd down defense. Over the course of 60 minutes it feels like Southern Miss is going to get a lot more stops and pull away. Southern Miss -7.5 |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | 14-35 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
Packers tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakthiari are doubtful, Jason Spriggs and Kyle Murphy are on IR, as well Cobb is questionable. Tonight we are going to see undrafted free agents, practice squad players or inexperienced guards playing tackle vs. Leonard Floyd, Pernell McPhee and Willie Young. Bears defense held Davonta Freeman, Le'Veon Bell and Jaquizz Rodgers to 4.1 YPC or less, so I wouldn't be excited about the Packers' running game tonight. The Bears go into this game full of confidence after last week's win and I expect them to know Green Bay will be keying in on the run, therefore seeing Glennon taking a number of shots downfield. I feel over a touchdown is simply too much value to pass on. Chicago Bears +7.5 |
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09-27-17 | Reds +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 12 m | Show |
A must win game for the Milwaukee Brewers as they are 1.5 games back from the second Wild Card spot in the National League and they only have 4 games remaining. Besides having to leap frog Colorado who currently holds down the second WC spot, the St. Louis Cardinals are hot on their heels only 2.5 games back. All that being said I think this situation actually favours the Cincinnati Reds. There is too much pressure on the Brewers at the moment and not every player/organisation is capable of playing well with that on their mind; usually it inhibits best play as players are tight and over think things. At the same time there is no pressure on the Reds and they can play free and the act as the spoiler roll. Reds starter Homer Bailey has faced the Brewers twice within the past seven weeks, winning at Milwaukee with five innings of two-run ball on Aug. 11 and settling for a no-decision on Sept. 4 after allowing three runs in six frames. After allowing four earned runs in his first four major-league starts, Woodruff has had some shaky moments over his last three turns, surrendering 13 runs and 20 hits over 17 frames. The 24-year-old took the loss against the Chicago Cubs last time out after giving up four runs and five hits in five innings. His ERA at home is 4.85. Cincinnati Reds +1.5 on the Runline |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
The Cowboys didn't like how things played out last game against the Denver Broncos and Zeke even said he didn't give a full effort. Additionally the Broncos have a major home field advantage as you could see yesterday against the Bills. On the flip side the Cardinals come off an overtime win against the Colts and if you watched that game at all last week you know they should be 0-2. As often happens in the NFL, it's the team looking to rebound who often comes through in the end and not the team looking to build on success. This past weekend was a prime example of that as nearly every underdog covered the spread. While yes the Cowboys are the favourite, I don't think the line is big enough giving the circumstance of this game and the fact that they will be all hands on deck go for this tilt. Meanwhile the Cardinals now have a shared backfield and a spotty WR roster (John Brown out, J.J. Nelson comes in with limited practice all week). Look for Elliott to have a monster game behind their huge O-Line and for Carson Palmer to continue to look uncomfortable in the pocket. Dallas Cowboys -2.5 |
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09-24-17 | Raiders -3 v. Redskins | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -115 | 81 h 59 m | Show |
The Raiders are a west coast team that plays in the pacific time zone and the Redskins play in the eastern time zone. When the game starts, the body clock of the Redskins players is at 8.30 PM EST, the body clock of the Raiders is at 5.30 PM EST. As the game moves on, the bodies of the Redskins calm down towards sleeping time, whereas the Raiders are still fresh. That has a high impact on the game. Going back to 1994, pacific time teams playing eastern time teams on the road on SNF or MNF: 21-5 ATS, outscoring the home teams 14.7 – 9.9 in the second half. Going back to 1989, road teams score 10.0 points per average in the second half and get outscored by 0.7 points by the home side. In the body clock games, pacific teams score 4.7 points more and outscore the home teams by 5.5 points more than in standard road games. Not only do the Raiders have a biological advantage, they also have an offense that can outscore the Redskins easily. The Redskins defense doesn’t have the firepower to compete with the Raiders, period. I would be shocked if the Raiders stay below 24 in this one, I am rather looking at 28-35 points. It will depend on whether the Redskins are able to outscore the Raiders at home and I doubt it. Jordan Reed got injured, didn’t practice on Wednesday and word is that he doesn’t look healthy. That’s a huge downgrade for the Redskins offense because Reed is Cousins’ go-to guy. Reed saw 14 targets in two games and caught 6/6 passes against the Rams. Over the last two seasons, the Redskins are 3-5 SU and scored 20 or less points in half those games when Jordan Reed didn’t play. Terrelle Pryor has had dropping issues so far, Josh Doctson is still on a snap count. Raiders CB Sean Smith had an off-season in 2016 off his new contract but he played much better against the Titans and rookie Gareon Conley played well against the Jets. If the Raiders are able to lock down the WR's and Reed doesn’t play, it’s gonna be a long day for Cousins. I think the Raiders will have their tough stretch during the second half of the season against strong defenses, but for now we just gotta ride them against mediocre defenses. Oakland Raiders -3 |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
I still don’t know how the Chargers lost last week because they played great on offense and played good on defense. The Chiefs have produced offensive metrics over the first two weeks that aren’t sustainable. They will regress over the next couple of weeks and this time they have to travel to Los Angeles and the Chargers are in allin mode facing a 0-3 and a realistic end to their season. They will bring it this week. The Eagles had a lot of chances to win against KC, but Wentz’s accuracy and Pedersons play-calling held them back. The Chargers will have a lot of success offensively and will use the loss of Eric Berry. Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry should have a really good game. Eagles targeted Ertz 10 times last week and we could see 10-15 targets for Gates and Henry, but with better accuracy from a better QB. After two wins with sensational metrics, the Chiefs should come down to earth here. I don’t like that Jason Verrett is still not practicing, but the Chiefs don’t have the type of route runners that can expose not having Berry on board. Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 |
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09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3 | 16-26 | Win | 110 | 109 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a great situational spot to take the Bills. The Broncos are super high-flying emotionally after that astonishing blowout win at home against the Cowboys. As we found out last week, the Broncos not only have one of the best home field advantages in general, they also are 31-3 at home now during the first two weeks since 1989. They are 136-65 starting in week 3. Now travelling to Buffalo to play on the road with a game against the 2-0 Raiders on deck is a completely different and tough spot. With Trevor Siemian at QB – even though the passing game is improved – the Broncos haven’t been road warriors in 2016. They went 3-4 and one win at New Orleans was off a last-second FG block return touchdown. Every team has its off-games and I expect the Broncos to have an off-game at Buffalo. The perception is that the Broncos are now unbeatable and the Bills are a team that wants to tank. Before the season started most of the people had the Broncos as an 8-8/9-7 team and the Bills around 5-11/6-10. Now because of two games and two trades, the perception changed drastically. With the Bills we don’t really need to care about the passing matchup, because the Bills don’t have the receivers to win one on one matchups against the Broncos so they aren’t going to target them often. The Bills must get their run game going like last year and simply overwhelm and outwear that Denver defense and rely on Tyrod Taylor's feet. When they go run-heavy and mix in some designed runs for Taylor and create field position on defense like I expect them to, they have a very good shot to win this game. Buffalo Bills +3 |
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09-24-17 | Texans v. Patriots -13 | Top | 33-36 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 32 m | Show |
Deshaun Watson is not an NFL QB (yet). We saw it in the preseason, we saw it against Jacksonville and we saw it at Cincinnati. He has bad accuracy, a weak arm, throws with low velocity, completely panics and abandons his footwork when under pressure. The Patriots are going to have a good game plan against him because they already watched him in joint practices in August. Rookie QBs are 0-8 at New England in the Belichick era, throwing 5 INT to 16 INT. They are going to contain him in the pocket and have a spy because they can aggressively cover every receiver not named DeAndre Hopkins. They will do the same as they did against PIT in the playoffs. Double-team Hopkins and make Watson beat them on other receivers. Bill O’Brien once again showed that he is a terrible play caller and completely non-creative when it comes to offensive scheming. Hopkins had every snap on the same side of the field and almost always ran the same routes. Belichick is goint to bait Watson to throw to Hopkins and block all the running lanes he can possibly get. I would be completely surprised if the Texans scored a touchdown this week. On the other side, the Texans don’t have enough quality on defense at this point. They lost Kevin Johnson (4-6 weeks), Johnathan Joseph is hurt, Brian Cushing is suspended and they don’t have a quality SS that can match up with Gronkowski (I predict that he plays). This is still a good defense, but they don’t have the tools to match up with the versatility of the Patriots offense. New England -13 |
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09-24-17 | Falcons -3 v. Lions | Top | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 90 h 30 m | Show |
Despite being 2-0, the Lions have played two really bad offenses - both with terrible offensive lines. The Giants now stayed below 20 points in their last eight consecutive games. The Cardinals offense is a complete mess – no WRs, no RBs, bad pass protection. I still think the Lions defense isn’t any good and they will get torched by a good offense. They will face a good offense this week. The Falcons should have no trouble moving the ball at Detroit this week. Against the Cardinals, the Lions were held to 9 offensive points through three quarters. Against the Giants, they scored 17 offensive points and Stafford was held to a career low 122 total passing yards and 5 NYPPA. It was enough to win the game, because Stafford made great drive extending plays on his feet by running for first downs or by throwing on the move outside the pocket and that’s where the Giants defense failed – you gotta keep him in the pocket and let him react to pressure, because that’s when he starts making mistakes. In the second half, Stafford had 3 passing attempts. They know the Giants couldn’t score and they just ran the ball. The Falcons are probably going to score early and often so the Lions offense will be forced to something they don’t really want to: abandon their offensive style and play catch-up with a good offense. Falcons should be able to jump a good lead in this one and run out the clock in the second half by forcing Stafford to step up and make consistent throws out of the pocket and stop throwing simple screens. I think the matchup for the Falcons offense is much better than the one for the Lions. Atlanta Falcons -3 |
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09-24-17 | Browns v. Colts +2 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in a professional football game. Let that sink for a while. The last time the Browns were road favorites was in week 7 of 2014 at Jacksonville (-2.5). I like what the Browns are doing offensively, but with Myles Garrett on a snap count at the most and Jamie Collins sidelined with a concussion, this defense has really nothing to compete. The Browns couldn’t get any pressure on Ben or Flacco during the first two games and I highly doubt that they are going to get consistent pressure on Brissett. There is no one on the Browns defense you have to account for or to work out a special gameplan for. Colts should move the ball and get some scores in this one. And for those who watch the Cardinals/Colts matchup last week, I swear Gore was running like he was 25 years old in his prime. The key matchup in this game belongs to the Colts secondary. Malik Hooker gives this secondary something special as he already presented his great ball-hawking skills last Sunday with his first career interception. He can cover a lot of ground which makes the work of other defensive backs a lot easier. CB Rashaan Melvin played really solid thus far and the Colts probably get stud CB Vontae Davis back this week. Davis has been limited since last Friday and the chances are good that he lines up this week. That’s a tremendous boost for the Colts, especially matchup-wise. The Browns lost their best WR Corey Coleman due to a broken hand. Coleman is an accuracy-eraser who gives Kizer a larger margin for error. As explained before week one, Kizers biggest problem is his accuracy which has a high variance. Sammy Coates is still injured and unlikely to play. That leaves the Browns with Kenny Britt, Kasen Williams, Rashard Higgins and Ricardo Louis against an improving secondary. During the first two games Kizer showed off some great plays but also showed off some glaring mistakes when his receivers are covered. He tends to run into sacks and forces throws instead of throwing it away. Indianapolis Colts +2 |
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09-24-17 | Saints v. Panthers -5 | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
I normally like siding with 0-2 teams due to the desperation they play with in Week 3 knowing the season could be over early if they don't get the win, that being said I simply can't do it with New Orleans on the road in Carolina. As great as Drew Brees has been playing over the first two weeks, he can’t carry that team alone. I see a lot of forced throws under pressure this one and for the Panthers elite linebacking core to pick a couple off. It also doesn't help that both of the Saints starting defensive tackles are injured. It’s a tough road game at Carolina and Cam Newton is getting better. He still had some very weird throws but played better than against SF. If he makes the next step, the Panthers should put up a decent amount of points on the Saints college defense and I see their defense playing well against the Saints. Yes Greg Olsen is out, but they have a veteran replacement in Ed Dickinson. Panthers should roll this one home. Carolina Panthers -5 |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
A division game giving us 6 points to work with is too much to pass up on, despite how the Giants have looked thus far. Now 0-2 on the year, the Giants will go all in at Philadelphia. If they go 0-3, their season is over. News just came in that Janoris Jenkins will play which is a huge boost for this Giants D. He should be tasked with covering Alshon Jeffrey who's coming off a seven-catch, 92 yards performance against the Chiefs. Also just in... all three starting Eagles CB's which were questionable have been ruled out! Those players are: Rodney McLeod, Jaylen Watkins and Corey Graham. I think the Eagles played quite solid at Kansas City, but they have two problems: Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz. Pederson has very weird play-calling. They were very successful on the ground but Pederson somehow went pass-heavy. Wentz can’t throw a deep ball to save his life. He is now 3/13 on deep balls (20+ yards) which includes the lucky Ertz catch at KC and he is 15/31 when targeting Torrey Smith and Alshon Jeffery. The Eagles might win solely with their defense, because Odell won’t be 100% and that Eagles front seven is an easy matchup for the Giants’ offensive line. However, Wentz should struggle against that Giants defense and we have a 6 point cushion to work with. New York Giants +6 |
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 43 h 20 m | Show |
This is a great spot for the Jaguars. They come off an embarrassing divisional home loss and now will bring everything to the table to beat the Ravens. The Ravens come into this game with a suspect 2-0 record with wins over the Bengals and Browns - two teams who probably won't make the playoffs. And thus I think the Ravens are overvalued in this spot. The Jaguars once again saw that they can’t give the game into the hands of Blake Bortles and they are going to ground and pound again from the beginning. The Ravens are without their very best run defender Brandon Williams who didn’t make the trip, as well as their best lineman, Marshal Yanda, who made six consecutive pro bowls, for the season. The Ravens also have a huge game against the Steelers. The Jaguars defense is really awesome, don’t let the last game fool you. Until deep in the third quarter, they held the Titans and their great o-line to just field goals and a lot of three & outs until they got worn out and Derrick Henry just overrun them plus short field position. You can be sure that this Jaguars defense will completely shut down the overrated Ravens offense. I won’t bet on Blake Bortles often, but when I do, it’s against a bad offense where he doesn’t have to play catch-up. Jacksonville Jaguars +4 |
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09-23-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
Notre Dame is off to a 2-1 start after destroying Temple and Boston College. They battled hard with a really good Georgia team (I was on Georgia as clients remember) and lost by a single point. There is no doubt that the Irish passing game can improve, but they have decent targets including WR Equanimeous St Brown and Alize Mack; and don’t forget Josh Adams out of the backfield. Speaking of the backfield – the Irish ran for over 400 yards vs Temple and over 500 vs Boston College. The Irish boast an excellent offensive line and the Spartans are going to have trouble stopping Notre Dame from rushing for 250-300+ yards. They were held in check by Georgia, but this Spartan defense is a far cry from the Bulldogs’ stop unit. Michigan State sits at 2-0 and look to be much improved over last season’s 3-9 mess, however they have only played two games so far versus MAC teams. Yes they rank very highly in the FBS defensive stats, but I fear that they may be a bit overrated given the match-ups vs Bowling Green and Western Michigan. Notre Dame has more experience on the roster and I feel that they find a way to win this game by 6+ points. Notre Dame -3 |
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09-23-17 | Florida v. Kentucky +3 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 92 h 38 m | Show |
Florida QB Franks has completed 62% of his passes, but has just 2 touchdown passes to his credit and one of those was the hailmary bomb versus the Vols. The running game has not been spectacular to say the least and the WR corps is unproven and really miss star Antonio Callaway. Florida is second last in the SEC in yards per play on offense at 5.20. The Kentucky defense has been pretty good this season. Kentucky has played some decent offenses and only allowed 17,16 and 13 points. The only improvement we hope to see is the ability to get penetration on the line. Florida may be the tonic for that as they have given up way too many sacks and tackle for loss so far. So far QB Stephen Johnson has been pretty efficient completing 63% of his passes with a 2-1 touchdown to interception ratio. He is limited when throwing down the field in the passing game due to a lack of weapons right now at wide receiver. TE CJ Conrad is their most devastating option. The good news is that they have the best offensive player in the game in RB Benny Snell. Yes, he will be limited against a solid Florida defense, but at some point you know he will probably be the difference maker. Florida is last in the SEC in yards per play on defense with 5.95. They have too many injuries and suspensions to count and that severely impacts their depth and the ability to play defense for four quarters. Kentucky +3 |
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09-23-17 | Michigan v. Purdue +10 | 28-10 | Loss | -105 | 88 h 8 m | Show | |
The Boilermakers sit at 2-1 (including a 35-3 road beating on Missouri) and are full of confidence right now. QB David Blough is off to a good start and if ever there was a time to upset a big time program it would be Saturday against the Wolverines in the Big Ten opener. The Michigan offense has struggled so far this year. 10 trips into the red zone with just one TD. Their offensive line has struggled as well, and it won't help that they lost leading WR Tarik Black. Purdue recently dumped huge money into their program and things seem to have turned around quickly thanks to their new head coach (Jeff Brohm) and recruiting. This is a statement game which I believe they'll keep close enough to the number. Purdue +10 |
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09-23-17 | TCU +14 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 40 h 2 m | Show |
The TCU defense is off to a pretty good start (#15 FBS) and is a very experienced and well coached group. The possibility is certainly there to give the Cowboys some trouble, despite going up against an extremely good offense. TCU has been decent on offense this season (#19 FBS) themselves and have been nicely balanced between the run and the pass. QB Kenny Hill as an 8-to-2 TD to INT ratio so far, RB Darius Anderson has been great, and the distribution among the weapons in the passing game has been good. The Cowboys have had trouble getting off the field on 3rd down (43%) and TCU is ranked #1 on third downs with a 66% success rate. If the TCU can convert consistently on 3rd downs this game could be interesting heading into the 4th quarter, but certainly good enough for a two touchdown cover. Keep in mind that TCU has been a really good road dog the past 10 seasons ATS (13-5-1). TCU +14 |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
As much as I like the direction the Los Angeles Rams are going, I'm not sold on 2nd year QB Jared Goff to get the job done on the road in a primetime game and win by 4 points or more. The chemistry between a new receiving core isn't there yet, so in the event they get down early it will be up to Goff to spread the field and I think the 49ers D is capable enough to make stops or even score a few INT's. They held the Seahawks to 12 points at home last week including a single late 4th quarter touchdown. The Panthers also had difficulty scoring on them in Week 1 with all their weapons go. I also don't like the fact that star lineman Aaron Donald is still getting in game shape after holding out the entire offseason and preseason. Lastly the Niners really want to get this win at home to show their California native team who runs the show in-state, but even if they lose by a couple we still cover. Finally, as much as people hate on Brian Hoyer, he is a veteran QB and you'll see a nice connection between him and Pierre Garcon all game. San Franciso 49ers +3 |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -115 | 123 h 19 m | Show |
The Giants were almost shut out on prime time whereas the Lions dropped 35 points on the Cardinals as underdogs. The Lions earned that win, but they were playing a Cardinals team at home that played extremely bad. Clients will recall that was my 'Game of the Year' in fact, but I'm not one to dwell on the past and keep firing away at the same time, rather we learn from it and move on. What is important to take away is that the Lions didn't beat a great team in Week 1. The Cards offensive line didn’t look improved and their receivers once again were a complete no show. On top of that, Carson Palmer had a bad game with some terrible throws. On top of that, they lost their most valuable offensive player in the third quarter when David Johnson went down during a fumble. At that point, the Cards were actually leading the Lions 17-9 – with a Stafford pick-six. Palmer added a pick-six himself later. Kudos to the Lions, but it wasn’t that they controlled that game from start to finish. New York played without their best offensive player and the offensive line got completely manhandled by the Cowboys front seven. With Odell on the field, you have a guy who cannot only beat every CB, he also is a great deep threat. You put your best CB on him but you cannot have Odell in single man coverage on one side of the field. You always have to shade a safety over the top. That puts Brandon Marshall into a much better matchup on the CB2 and opens up space underneath for Shepard, Engram and Vereen. On Monday we will get a completely different matchup, because the Lions line backing corps isn’t as smart as Sean Lee and Jaylen Smith and they are going to have a significantly worse wide receiver matchup than against the Cards. Slay will likely be put on Odell with safety help and Brandon Marshall likely gets Nevin Lawson who is 5’9″. Marshall is 6’5″. This is unfair. Marshall is gonna burn him in man coverage and I expect a very good stat line from Brandon Marshall. Vice versa, Odell should absolutely get the better of Lawson. Overall the Giants are going to have a much much better matchup offensively this week. The Giants still have an elite defense despite what you saw Week 1. They held one of the best offenses to 19 offensive points (2016 avg: 26.7), 1 TD & 4 FGs on 9 drives. Now they get the Lions offense at home. With Matthew Stafford, the Lions are 2-23 SU on the road against teams that finish the season with a winning record. Since 2015, the Lions had 9 road games in open stadiums. They scored 28, 16, 10, 18, 24, 27, 14, 6, 6 points. That’s 16.4 PPG and they went 2-7 in those games. The Lions are going to have a hard time moving the ball on this Giants defense as they had last December when they scored 6 points at New York. They won’t win the battle in the trenches and Stafford's accuracy has never been good enough to hit receivers intermediate or deep in tight coverages. This offense will see a lot of 3 & outs and will have a very hard time in the red zone. I think the line is a complete overreaction at this point and that the Lions is the clear public play. New York Giants -3 (comfortable up to -4.5) |
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09-17-17 | 49ers v. Seahawks -13.5 | Top | 9-12 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 41 m | Show |
Cam Newton played bad last Sunday at San Francisco and it was still enough for the Panthers to beat the Niners 23-3. The Niners have some young talent on their defense and a promising head coach, but they are still a bad Football team. Brian Hoyer simply can't be trusted as a starter in this league, especially on the road facing one the toughest defenses in the league. The Niners defense was solid against the run in Week 1, but losing Rueben Foster was huge. The front seven took a step back after his absence and the pass defense is still nowhere to be found. The Seahawks lost 6-17 at Green Bay, but despite losing the game, the Seahawks defense showed promise. The Seahawks went into Lambeau Field and held the Packers offense with the best QB in the NFL to just 17 points; 7 of which were scored on a start from the SEA 6 yard line and another 7 on a blown defensive formation. All that considering that the Seahawks lost cornerback Jeremy Lane during the first quarter from getting kicked out of the game. Aaron Rodgers played 72 times at Lambeau Field. In just 8 games he was held to 20 or less points. That alone should tell you how great that performance was. This week, the Seahawks will get the lowly Niners at home and the crowd will be rocking. The Hawks came into Lambeau with high expectations. They wanted to make a statement and get revenge from that devastating 7-38 loss in 2016. They lost. Now they are going to take all their motivation and frustration to put a legit beatdown on their division rival. This is one of the worst offenses taking on the best defense in the NFL at Century Link stadium off a loss. The defensive line will be all over that Niners offensive line and Brian Hoyer. Cliff Avril hurt his shoulder against the Packers, so we might see more DE rotations and more snaps for Frank Clark. This might be one of the worst matchups for any offense this year. The Seahawks also have a history of dominating bad QB's at home. We cannot get a better spot to grab the Seahawks below two touchdowns. Note: the Seahawks are 10-1 SU / 8-2-1 ATS at home off a loss, outscoring their opponents by 15 ppg. Seahawks -13.5 (comfortable up to -14) |
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09-17-17 | Cowboys v. Broncos +3 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
On Monday Night Football last week you saw the incredible home field advantage the Broncos have. Amazingly the Broncos are 30-3 SU at home during the first two weeks since 1989. The average score has been 28.1 – 18.7, so they are outscoring opponents by 9.4 PPG at home during the first two weeks of the season. If there are bad spots on the Cowboys schedule, it’s definitely this one at Denver. I think Dak Prescott is going to be a very good QB for the next decade, but in his second season, he is going to have some regression games where he throws 1-2 picks and is forced to make mistakes. This game might be one. The biggest advantage the Cowboys have on paper is their run game against a Denver run defense that was particularly bad last season. Without TJ Ward, I didn’t expect them to improve on that but his replacement young Justin Simmons looks to be the real deal. He was all over the field on Monday, making open-field tackles, making tackles in the box and blitzing Philip Rivers on the play that led to his interception. Overall, the run defense played much better than I expected them to do. If the Broncos can sustain that level even against better running teams, they are going to have an awesome defense once again this year. They got three great corners who can play man against any team in the league. I don’t think we are going to see great third down success from the Cowboys in this one. Last season, the Boys started with five fairly easy road games in terms of opposing defenses, winning all 5. Then they had their issues against the Vikings and Giants, scoring 17 and 7. I think this is another really tough game for the Cowboys offense and I doubt we are going to see more than 20 points from them. I don’t think they are going to attack the Broncos through the air, they should try to ground and pound which keeps the clock ticking. This is another argument for a rather low scoring affair in which would favour the Broncos. I don’t think the Cowboys go to Mile High and just do business. It’s going to be a very tough game against a great defense and a loud crowd that might disrupt a few of Prescott's great audibles at the line of scrimmage. I think Trevor Siemian and that offense tanked some confidence against the Chargers and they are ready for this game. Denver Broncos +3 |
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09-17-17 | Browns +9 v. Ravens | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -125 | 119 h 19 m | Show |
The Browns lost at home to the Steelers in a game they absolutely could have won. The Steelers got 7 points from a blocked punt return TD. I don’t think that Kizer had a good game running into 3-4 sacks by himself and leaving two touchdowns on the table by missing open receivers. He was sacked 7 times and the Browns still had a shot to win that game. Simultaneously, the Ravens shut out a really bad Bengals team on the road. While the 20-0 result reads very well, we have to account for how they won that game - DEFENSE. The Ravens offense looks abysmal. Flacco didn't look like a veteran one bit and he couldn’t really move the ball on a bad defense. The Ravens scored 7 points off a Dalton pick starting at the Cincinnati 2 yard line. Flacco went 9 for 17, throwing for 121 yards. 48 of his 121 yards came from Maclin's untouched touchdown alone where he threw it short and Maclin could literally walk into the end zone. The Ravens lost Danny Woodhead for a few weeks, a good receiving back who just collected 11 yards per catch on 3/3 targets. The Baltimore Ravens offense will have a tough time scoring many points on any defense this year, also on the Browns. Their ceiling is always going to be in the 10-24 offensive points range. Flacco is mistake-prone and is always good for 1-2 interceptions. And that’s where I believe this spread is too high. The Ravens defense is stout, but I doubt that this unit alone will be enough to win this game by 9+ points against a decent offense. At 9 points we have a lot of options, especially late in the game, when we always have the chance of a backdoor cover with these Browns. Hue Jackson already showed that he is going to be aggressive this year by going for it twice on fourth down. The Browns converted both. This line has tremendous value as soon as the Ravens don’t pull away by more than two possessions. Scores throughout the game of 10-3, 14-10, 21-13 will always keep us in the game if the Ravens grab leads. If the Browns score first, we have a 12 or 16 point advantage against a bad offense. I expect this game to be close throughout 60 minutes, a classic wire-to-wire matchup. 9 points against a bad offense with a decent offense and an aggressive coach is great value. Note: Teams playing the week before a game in London are 10-22-2 ATS (31.2%) lifetime. Ravens travel to London next week. Cleveland Browns +9 (good down to +7.5) |
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09-16-17 | Rice v. Houston -22.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 23 m | Show |
The Owls have had a rough schedule thus far having played in Australia and at 780,000 feet above sea level vs UTEP. Now they get to come back home to Houston, but have to deal with the deadly Houston Cougars on their home field. Houston has only played one game due to Hurricane Harvey and it was a 17-14 win over Arizona on the road last week. Houston has a really good QB in Kyle Allen who can do it all and he completed 78% of his passes in his first game action since 2015. The RB group is deep as is the WR corps and their offense line looks good too. They can stay balanced and pound the Owls with the running game while hopefully taking more deep shots to blow the game open. The Owls were ripped to shreds by Stanford in their first game allowing 656 yards of total offense while showing the ability to stop absolutely nothing. Stanford is not known for being a great offensive team so I have no reason to believe that the Cougars can get into the 40's in this contest. Especially when you consider one of the best players in college football resides on the Houston DL (Ed Oliver). Houston just finished holding a really good running team in check (Arizona). Rice does not have the same athletes as Houston, nor do they have the same passing game. Redshirt freshman QB Sam Glaesmann has only completed 47% of his passes so far with 1 TD. They will have to rely on short fields and/or big plays. Houston should show some improvement in their second game of the season. They are really talented all over the field and have most of the best players in the game wearing the Houston colors. Anything is possible, but I feel the combination of a really good offense and a defense with a superstar on the DL should be able to win this game very comfortably. I think they can hold Rice to around 10 points and that should make for a cover. Houston -22.5 |
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