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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +5 v. California | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 52 m | Show |
8* Arizona State (10:30 ET): Cal may be 4-0, but I have a hard time believing this is the 15th best team in the country (as they have been labeled by the AP). In my own personal power ratings, I have the Bears outside the Top 40! Yes, they do have two "true" road wins against Washington and Ole Miss, the former of which is a legit top 20 team. But Ole Miss is a team we faded back in Week 1 (at Memphis) and haven't really been impressed w/ ever since. Still, the Rebels offense put up 500+ yards on the heralded Cal defense (after putting up just 173 in the loss to Memphis!) and the Bears needed a goal line stand at the end of the game to preserve a 28-20 win. Cal's resume now includes three wins by eight points or less (including North Texas, who outgained them) and a 2 TD win over a FCS school (Cal Davis). Not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here as Arizona State has already gone to Michigan State this year and won outright. Take the points. The key to Cal's resurgence over the last two years has been their defense, which can claim one of the best secondaries in the entire country. But that defense was shredded last week by Ole Miss and the offense in Berkeley remains a huge liability. While they put up 433 total yds last week at Ole Miss, a lot of that came on big passing plays in situations that weren't all too favorable. Somehow QB Chase Garber was able to go 12 of 17 for 245 yds passing on plays where the offense was either 2nd & 7 (or longer), 3rd & 4 (or longer) or 4th down. Let's see him do that again. (Hint: we don't think he'll be able to). Last year, a more experienced Cal offense (10 starters back) could only manage 21.5 PPG. This year's Cal offense returned only four starters. They've yet to score more than 28 pts in any game. Arizona State's defense isn't too shabby either. The Sun Devils had allowed just seven points in each of the first three games en route to a 3-0 start. But they then wound up losing the Pac 12 opener to Colorado 34-31, a game which was pretty even throughout. As I said earlier, the Sun Devils already hold a win in East Lansing. So losing at home to Colorado didn't make much sense, other than it was a "letdown" spot. Herm Edwards has done a much better job in Tempe than most expected and will have his team ready to go here. Including the win over Michigan State, Edwards is now 4-1 ATS as a road dog (the only loss coming LY, ironically to Colorado). He's beaten Michigan State twice now. 8* Arizona State |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The underdog has gone a perfect 3-0 this season on Thursday night. We've been on the dog each of the last two weeks with Bucs upsetting the Panthers and the Jaguars upsetting the Titans. The Eagles certainly hope the underdog trend continues this week as they are 0-3 ATS and more importantly (for them) 1-2 SU. They face a Green Bay team that is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, but the Pack have hardly been dominant in getting there. The Packers have actually been outgained in all three games and their YPG differential of -41.6 is certainly not what you'd expect from an undefeated team. They were fortunate to be +3 in turnovers LW at home vs. Denver and the week before actually saw them get outgained 7.0 to 4.9 by Minnesota on a per play basis. In a desperate spot for the Eagles, we're going to take the points in this matchup. Coming into the year, we did hail the Packers as being one of the most likely teams in the league to improve on last season's win total. Seeing them win only six times w/ a healthy Aaron Rodgers last year was somewhat shocking. So a coaching change was made (Matt LaFleur replacing Mike McCarthy). LaFleur, a 1st time HC, was supposed to reinvigorate Rodgers. But the offense is just 28th in YPG (286.7 YPG) and are 30th on third downs, converting just 25% of them time. Instead it's been the Packers defense that's been reinvigorated. They have 12 sacks (3rd most) and a league-leading +6 turnover differential. Those numbers are likely to lead most teams to a 3-0 start. But LB Za'Darius Smith just popped up on the injury list Wednesday (knee). We're not convinced this Packers' defense can continue to carry an offense that's playing so poorly. It's also helped that Green Bay's three opponents have all shot themselves in the foot. Meanwhile, the Eagles were the ones shooting themselves in the foot last week vs. Detroit. They allowed a TD on special teams, turned it over twice (leading to six Lions' points) and failed to score after blocking a FG. QB Carson Wentz also didn't have a full compliment of weapons LW as both starting WR's were out as was his TE for most of the game. But both Alshon Jeffrey and Dallas Goebert are expected back Thursday. Philly is scoring more than Green Bay so far, which is another reason to like them plus the points here. As underdogs, the Eagles have covered 9 of the last 13 times, winning eight of those games outright! 10* Philadelphia |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 41 | Top | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
10* Over Bears/Redskins (8:20 ET): The Chicago offense hasn't looked so good in the first two games, scoring all of 19 points. Quite frankly, they are lucky that number isn't 16. Were it, that means the Bears would be coming into Monday night at 0-2. But new kicker Eddie Pineiro booted a 54 yard FG as time expired LW in Denver, giving his team a 16-14 win. Lucky for Chicago, this week they are facing a Redskins' defense that is the proverbial "gift that keeps on giving." Look for QB Mitchell Trubisky and company to have a "breakout" game here, helping this one go Over the total. Washington has actually started both of its games well. They were up 17-0 over the Eagles in the 2nd quarter back in Week 1. They also shut out the high-powered Cowboys' offense for a quarter and half last week. But in both games, the defense fell apart in the second half. The Redskins have given up 63 points total and 455 YPG. They are allowing 6.8 yards per play. In the second halves alone, the Skins have allowed 569 total yards. That's almost as many as the Bears' defense has allowed total this year. Again, I expect the Bears offense to wake up from it "early season slumber" here. You're likely to hear about some trends of when the road team is favored on MNF, the games tend to stay Under. Plus, the Bears' last seven games (dating back to last season) have all stayed Under. When you've got a top defense and a suspect offense (like the Bears do), that's not a surprise. But note Washington QB Case Keenum hasn't been that bad so far, throwing for 601 yards and five touchdowns w/ zero interceptions. The Redskins have averaged 24 PPG against two good teams (Eagles, Cowboys) so far. So don't be surprised if they score more than you think here. The Over is 13-4 in Chicago's L17 road games vs. teams that have a losing home record. 10* Over Bears/Redskins |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:20 ET): What a difference a week makes in the eyes of the public. The Browns have gone from trendy road favorite to unpopular home dog, which is quite the week to week turnaround in this league. Making the perception all the more head-scratching is how they handled the short-handed Jets Monday night, winning that game 23-3 in dominant fashion. Perhaps some still have a "bad taste" in their mouth from the Browns' first game, which was an ugly 43-13 loss here at home to Tennessee. But that game got away from them late, making the final score at least a little misleading. An underdog for the 1st time here in 2019, we'll grab Cleveland plus the points Sunday night in what shapes us as the franchise's biggest game in years - hosting the defending NFC Champion Rams. Cleveland has done well in the past in this spot. At least recently. They were 4-1 ATS as a home dog last season and are also 4-1 ATS getting four points or less (home or road) w/ Baker Mayfield as the starting QB. They have also won and covered all three primetime games w/ Mayfield as the starter. Again, all trends only go back to last season, but there's no denying that this is a "new Browns team," at least compared to most of the moribund offerings this franchise has provided over the L20 years. Yes, they caught a break Monday night w/ the Jets having to turn to a 3rd string QB. But it hardly appeared as if Trevor Siemian was going to do anything productive before getting hurt. The Browns' defense allowed just 262 yds last week and a lot of that game in "garbage time." They do have some injuries to deal w/ on that side of the ball this week, but can get through it. In particular, look for the Browns to potentially win this game "in the trenches" w/ a talented defensive line going against an inexperienced Rams' O-line. There could be as many as three Rams lineman w/ three or fewer starts on their career resume playing tonight. On offense, QB Baker Mayfield must get rid of the ball quicker. He seems aware of that issue and thus we look for it to get rectified here. The Rams have caught some breaks of their own the first two games, facing an injured Cam Newton and a Saints team that lost Drew Brees to injury. We're not nearly as high on the Rams as the market seems to be. They have not covered three of the previous five times they've been a road fave of -3.5 to -7 points. 10* Cleveland |
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09-22-19 | Broncos v. Packers OVER 42.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 44 h 53 m | Show |
8* Over Broncos/Packers (1:00 ET): We've seen eight quarters of this Packers' offense and truthfully the results haven't been all that great. They've scored all of four touchdowns, three of them coming in successive drives to open last week's game vs. Minnesota. Yet, here they are at 2-0 SU and leading the NFC North w/ a pair of division wins. Credit for the start can go to the defense, which has done its job in allowing just two touchdowns in two games (and only 19 pts total) while Aaron Rodgers is still learning 1st year HC Matt LaFleur's offense. But this week we're going to look for a bit higher scoring game w/ the Broncos. Take the Over. Denver is 0-2, but one thing they have in common w/ the Pack is both games have stayed Under the total. In fact, the Broncos' last 10 games have all stayed Under as have 15 of the last 18. There was some definite skepticism over Joe Flacco's arrival here in the Mile High City, at this stage of his career. But so far Flacco has completed 69% of his passes for 560 yards. That's not bad. It was a brutal loss to the Bears (who the Packers beat in Week 1) last week on a last second 53-yard field goal. Both Broncos' losses this year have technically been by one possession as they fell 24-16 in Oakland back in Week 1. Denver may not be a common opponent for Rodgers and the Pack, but they are quite familiar w/ the defensive scheme run by Broncos' 1st year HC Vic Fangio, who previously served as the Bears' defensive coordinator. This Broncos defense simply isn't as good as what Fangio was fielding in the Windy City as they've yet to register a turnover or single sack. As for that Packers defense, which has been labeled as much improved by everyone (including Rodgers himself), it still allowed 7.0 yards per play last week, whch was second most in the league. Many times w/ these 3-game reports, I have a prevailing theme and in every game here we're going Over w/ two teams that have gone Under in each of the first two games. 8* Over Broncos/Packers |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 43 h 21 m | Show |
8* Over Raiders/Vikings (1:00 ET): The Raiders never seem to have much success in these 1 PM ET kickoffs and truth be told, we don't anticipate them doing too well this week in Minneapolis, their first road game of 2019. They're off a 28-10 loss to Kansas City, which was a short week (played Monday night in Week 1), but it certainly didn't bother them early as they jumped out to a 10-0 first quarter lead. But from there, they wouldn't score again. The defense gave up four touchdowns in the second quarter, all TD passes by Patrick Mahomes, but no points in the second half. A second half w/ no scoring is quite rare, but we'll take it as we were on the Under! This week though, it's a different story. Take the Over. As mentioned in the Broncos/Packers writeup, the Minnesota offense averaged a whopping 7.0 yards per play last week. But unfortunately, they still lost, 21-16. Scoring only 16 points while gaining 7.0 YPP is just about as rare as no points being scored in the entire second half of a NFL game. In the Vikings' case, much of the blame for last week's loss can be placed on Kirk Cousins, who threw a terrible 4th quarter INT in the end zone (had no business making that pass). There were four Vikings' turnovers overall last week, not to mention a missed field goal. Clean up some of those mistakes, which shouldn't be hard to do against the Raiders, and you'll have a more productive offense this week. Again, the common theme in this three-pack is going Over with two teams that have gone Under in both games. We've got a low total in all three of the games. The Raiders' defense gave up 443 yards passing last week. That was against Mahomes, but Cousins is certainly capable of having a productive day himself. The Vikings' offense scored 28 points here at home in the opener. The way the defense gave up touchdowns on three straight drives to open LW's game in Green Bay was concerning though. The Raiders' offense almost always gets off to a good start and that should be enough to help this one go Over. 8* Over Raiders/Vikings |
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09-22-19 | Jets v. Patriots OVER 43 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 59 m | Show |
8* Over Jets/Patriots (1:00 ET): So the Antonio Brown era in New England didn't last long as the troubled receiver was cut after just two weeks and one game. Call me crazy, but the Patriots probably won't miss him. Through two games, they haven't allowed a touchdown and have outscored their first two opponents 76-3. A matchup here w/ the Jets, who are on a short week and down to a second-year, third-string QB, all but guarantees they'll be 3-0 after this week. But with a historically large pointspread, it's not like laying the number is an option here. Instead, we'll go Over the total. With Sam Darnold (mono) and Trevor Simien (torn ankle ligaments) both out, Luke Falk is now the man in charge of the Jets' offense now. This is an ominous sign seeing as Falk was on the practice squad last week. He'll be looking to replicate what fellow Washington State alum Gardner Minshew has done w/ Jacksonville. Facing this Patriots' defense, it's tough to like Falk's chances, but stranger things have happened. Unlike when he was "thrown to the wolves" against the Browns Monday night, Falk will at least have had reps w/ the first team offense in practice. Falk does rank 8th all-time in passing yards in NCAA history. The Patriots' 43-0 annihilation of Miami last week included two defensive touchdowns and one from Brown, who is now gone. But they'll still find other ways to score this week. Remember they gained 465 total yds in the opening week win over the Steelers. The historically bad Dolphins could hardly muster anything against the Patriots defense last week, but the Pats are 5-1 Over after allowing less than 250 total yards their previous game. The Under is 6-0 the L6 meetings in this AFC East rivalry, but this number has come down too far for that trend to continue. 8* Over Jets/Patriots |
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09-22-19 | Lions v. Eagles UNDER 46 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -119 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
10* Under Lions/Eagles (1:00 ET): Things have grown so dire on the injury front for the Eagles that HC Doug Pederson had no choice but to cancel practice Wednesday and do a walkthrough instead. We know that the offense will be w/o WR DeSean Jackson Sunday, a big loss. Fellow starting wideout Alshon Jeffrey and TE Dallas Goedert are both dealing w/ calf strains and may miss this game as well. That leaves the likes of Nelson Agholor (who has never lived up to expectations), JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins as the potential top options for Carson Wentz. That's hardly attractive. We still like the Eagles this year, but they're going to struggle to score points right now. The Eagles did put 20 points on the board last week in Atlanta, but gained fewer than 300 total yards for the game and just 4.0 yds per play. Here they run into a Detroit defense that's playing well for 2nd year HC Matt Patricia. Last week, the Lions held the Chargers to 10 points, though it helped that LA missed a couple of field goals. But they were also better than the box score showed in Week 1 vs. Arizona. That's a game where they gassed late and allowed 21 pts in the 4Q/OT and wound up w/ a tie. But they allowed just 4.7 YPP in that game. This will be the second week in a row they get to face a banged up offense. Remember that the Eagles got off to a slow start in Week 1 vs. Washington. Eventually, the offense got on track, but that's when they were healthier and facing an atrocious Redskins' defense (wound up winning 32-27). Since the start of last year, Philly has scored a league-low 41 pts in the first quarter. Eight of the Lions' last nine games have stayed Under the total, the exception being the Week 1 tie w/ Arizona. The last seven times they've played the Eagles, the game has gone Over. So something has to give here. With the Eagles' injury issues, we should expect a lower-scoring than usual effort from them. The Lions have managed just 40 points this season despite playing an extra 10 mins of football. 10* Under Lions/Eagles |
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09-22-19 | Jets +22 v. Patriots | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, for the Jets, this is certainly not how you'd draw up the 2019 season. They are 0-2, having blown a 16-pt lead at home vs. Buffalo in Week 1 and are now down to their THIRD string QB after a 23-3 loss to Cleveland Monday night. Now, on a short week, they face the Patriots. The game is in New England where they have not won since 2010's shocking playoff upset, "led" by Mark Sanchez. Luke Falk is now the team's QB as the Jets look for their first regular season win here at Gilette Stadium since 2008! But they don't call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for nothing. It's a historic spread Sunday w/ the Jets getting three touchdowns. Regardless of what teams are involved, this is an automatic take the points situation. NFL underdogs of 21+ points have covered at a 67% rate all-time, going 22-11-2 ATS. Bill Belichick coached Patriots teams have NEVER covered as a favorite of 20 or more points, going 0-4 ATS. They haven't been in this situation since 2011 against the Colts when they won by just a touchdown. While the New England defense has yet to allow a TD this year, resulting in the team outscoring its first two opponents 76-3, they won't be so fortunate to face a team like the Dolphins every week. Note Miami is also getting more than 20 pts this week (at Dallas), making this a VERY unusual week of NFL betting. The reason we'll be taking the Jets and not Miami this week is pretty simple. The Jets are a much better team. Falk probably isn't much of a downgrade from Trevor Siemian and now he'll at least have had practice reps w/ the first team offense. For what it's worth, Falk is 8th on the NCAAF all-time passing yardage list. Covering a spread like this is hard to do in the NFL and it should be noted that the Patriots got TWO defensive touchdowns last week vs. the Dolphins and another from WR Antonio Brown, who is no longer w/ the team. The Jets defense has allowed just 40 points in two games. 8* NY Jets |
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09-21-19 | Nevada v. UTEP +14.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 14 m | Show |
8* UTEP (8:00 ET): We won't try and sell you on UTEP being a good team because they are not. But the Miners are off a bye week and getting a good number of points, at home, against an overrated Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games, so the thought of them laying 2 TD's on the road seems far fetched to us. It is an opening night upset of Purdue, 34-31 as 11-pt home dogs, that has the contingent from Reno overvalued here. The reason they won that game was they were +5 in turnovers, which offset them being outgained by 115 yds in that contest. Since then, the Wolf Pack were "put in their place" with a 77-6 loss to Oregon, then could only beat FCS Weber State by a score of 19-13 last week. Take the points here. Nevada trailed Purdue 24-7 at the half and were down 31-14 halfway through the third quarter. The fact they came back and won that game was a minor miracle. They scored 10 pts in the final minute, including a 56-yard FG w/ no time remaining by a walk-on kicker. Had that comeback not taken place, we'd be looking at a 1-2 team whose only win would be by six points over a FCS opponent. If that were the case, this line probably looks a lot different. The Wolfpack have been a road favorite just twice under HC Jay Norvell (third year here in Reno), both times LY, and they are 0-2 ATS including an outright loss to a terrible San Jose State team. So there is real hope for UTEP here. Now here's the ugly part. UTEP has lost 24 of its last 26 games. The two wins were this year's season opener (vs. FCS Houston Baptist - by two points) and last year against Rice (who we currently rate as the worst team in the FBS). But the good news is we don't need the Miners to win, only cover. Being off a bye is good. Coming into the year, we did think this would be an improved team as they were better last year than their 1-11 SU record showed. This is a spread that belongs in the single digits as Nevada has lost 10 of its last 13 road games. 8* UTEP |
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09-21-19 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 48 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi St (4:00 ET): So this matchup is quite the reverse of Thursday night's Over play on Houston-Tulane. The Thursday night game saw the teams come in w/ a combined 6-0 Under mark while this Saturday afternoon battle in the SEC sees two teams that are 6-0. Something else Kentucky and Miss State have in common here is both are coming in off narrow losses at home last week. Kentucky lost to Florida 29-21 while Mississippi State was upset here in Starkville by a Kansas State team that it looks like we all underestimated. But what we're interested in here is the total as one of the starting QB's may be OUT here (Miss St) and last year's game was really low scoring. That's what we are anticipating again here. Take the Under. You had to figure MSU's defense would take a step back this year after giving up just 13.2 PPG a season ago. That was #2 in the country, behind only Alabama, but three #1 NFL Draft choices left that group. Still, it's been disconcerting to see the Bulldogs give up so many points early on, including 28 to Louisiana and 31 LW to Kansas State. Note, however, that they allowed less than 300 total yards in last week's loss. The difference in the game ended up being a 100-yard kick return for TD by Kansas State, which came just after Miss St had taken a seven-point lead. The Bulldogs defense than uncharacteristically wilted late, giving up a six-play, 53-yard drive to lose the game. Before that, they had been just fine. But Miss St potentially has bigger problems heading into this game as QB Tommy Stevens may not play. A shoulder injury has limited him each of the L2 games and last week he had to be taken out after throwing two picks and completing only 7 of 15 passes for 100 yards. Regardless of whether or not Stevens does play here, this Under is play is on as he clearly won't be at 100 percent. Last year, the Bulldogs' offense managed only 7 points as they were upset on the road by Kentucky. But we still trust that defense to play better than it has. Kentucky was probably the least dominant 10-win team in the country a year ago, so they figure to take a step back in 2019. They lost their top offensive player from LY (RB Benny Snell) and have only four starters back from a defense that gave up just 16.8 PPG. Still, they did hold Florida to just 10 points through three quarters last week (fell apart in 4Q) after allowing only 17 pts the previous game. 10* Under Kentucky/Mississippi State |
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09-21-19 | Wyoming v. Tulsa -3 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 48 h 20 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): Wyoming is 3-0 (straight up), but it would be a grave mistake to think those in Laramie should make holiday plans revolving around a New Year's Six Bowl game. Of all the teams still unbeaten across the country, the Cowboys are likely the weakest. That's largely confirmed by the fact they are getting points from 1-2 Tulsa this week. Now, the Golden Hurricane fought valiantly against Oklahoma State last week. They were up 21-20 at the half and would have covered (+14) had it not been for a late TD. We were on them in that spot, a tough loss for sure, but they get it back here against a different (and much weaker) group of Cowboys. Lay the points. Just to reiterate what's already been said about Wyoming's "phony" record, they are 3-0 but have been outgained in all three games. They've had close calls each of the last two weeks against Texas State and Idaho, neither of whom are any good. The Texas State game is one of just two times the Cowboys have won a non-conference roadie under HC Craig Bohl in 10 tries. They did so despite being -151 in total yards and -11 in first downs (lucky!). Interestingly enough, the Pokes were favored in that game (-7.5) and their only other non-conf road win under Bohl (LY vs. New Mexico State). Last week's home victory over FCS Idaho was even tighter (21-16) as Wyoming again overcame an early double-digit deficit and being outgained for the game. Tulsa has already played Michigan State and Oklahoma State, so they aren't likely to be intimidated by an opponent w/ an unbeaten record. Wyoming has actually won seven straight dating back to LY, but it's time for that to end this week. A big problem the Cowboys have is a passing attack which has averaged just 82 yards passing per game w/ a 39.1 completion percentage! Tulsa's rushing numbers are skewed due to how many sacks they gave up in the Michigan State game. The offense has moved the ball pretty well since that time and hasn't turned it over. The Golden Hurricane also have the better defense in this matchup (36th in efficiency). Add it up and you've got what should be an easy win for the home team. 10* Tulsa |
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09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Ohio | Top | 45-25 | Win | 102 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
8* Louisiana (2:00 ET): Sometimes if it's "too good to be true," it often is. Case in point, Ohio U returns to Athens this weekend, reeling, as they are off B2B road losses to Pitt and Marshall. They are laying just a short number at home and one might think this is a good landing spot for Frank Solich's Bobcats to bounce back. But we feel Louisiana is the better team in this matchup as the Ragin Cajuns come in feeling pretty good about themselves following B2B wins where they put up 593 and 748 (!) total yards of offense. Ohio's offense isn't performing up to expectations thus far and this very well could turn into a third consecutive loss for them. Take the points! Ohio was beaten far worse than 20-10 final score showed against Pitt. They barely gained 200 yards in the 20-10 loss and then followed that up w/ a poor defensive effort LW against Marshall where they gave up over 500 total yards. The offense was better there, but this still has to be considered a disappointing start considering QB Nathan Rourke is back. But there were just three other starters back from LY's record-setting offense in Athens. Granted, the Bobcats were underdogs in both losses, but we have our concerns w/ them being favored here as the defense has struggled to stop opponents through the air and on the ground. The Louisiana offense ranks 4th nationally in first downs. Ohio is also on a three-game losing streak to Sun Belt teams, including two bowl losses. Louisiana played for the SBC Championship last year and should exploit the Bobcats' suspect rush defense. The Ragin Cajuns have gone over 400+ yards rushing each of the last two weeks, admittedly against weaker competition, but Ohio also just allowed 300+ yds on the ground to Marshall last week. Louisiana returned its top three rushers from LY, so it's no surprise they have found so much success on the ground this year. This team hung tough against Mississippi State in the season opener, losing by only 10 points despite five turnovers and even ran for 164 yds against what was one of the top defenses in the country last year. 8* Louisiana |
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09-21-19 | UL-Monroe +19 v. Iowa State | Top | 20-72 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
8* UL Monroe (12:00 ET): Both teams are coming off one-point losses here. However, the situation is not entirely identical. UL Monroe has had a week off to recover from its 45-44 overtime loss at Florida State. Iowa State, who had its bye two weeks ago, now needs to find a way to quickly recover from losing to Iowa last Saturday. That's going to be tough to do, given the nature of the defeat and the fact it was the fifth straight time they lost to their in-state rival. Laying a big number in this spot makes the Cyclones an attractive fade too as UL Monroe has already proven it can hang w/ a P5 opponent. Take the points. Iowa State has to be demoralized about losing to Iowa. Not just because they had an extra week to prepare, but also the manner in which they lost. They outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 yards, but two turnovers proved costly, especially the second one which was a muffed punt in the final two minutes. That came after the offense had turned the ball over on downs in Iowa territory its previous drive. Scoring only 17 points on a Hawkeyes' defense that was very beat up in the secondary has to be very disappointing as well. Keep in mind the Cyclones needed OT to get by Northern Iowa, a FCS team, in their opening game. I feel that this is an overrated team, ripe for the picking right now. They've failed to cover five of the last six times they were favored here in Ames, all five ATS losses coming as DD favorites. UL Monroe has to like the spot that they are in as they had no problems covering a similar spread against Florida State. Yes, the Seminoles have their issues right now, but the Warhawks led them in the 4th quarter. They lost b/c of a missed extra point in OT. Kicking issue aside, this is one of the most experienced teams in the entire country and they've previously beaten six P5 opponents. Offensively, they are led by QB Evans and RB Johnson, the latter of which went for 126 yards on 26 carries vs. FSU. The UL Monroe rush defense is an area of concern, but fortunately for them ISU has struggled to run the ball effectively so far (just 91 yds vs. Iowa) as they badly miss David Montgomery, who is now in the NFL. 8* UL Monroe |
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09-21-19 | Western Michigan +5 v. Syracuse | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
8* Western Michigan (12:00 ET): Really tough spot for Syracuse here as they are off a deflating 41-6 loss to Clemson last week where they were thoroughly outclassed just as they were by Maryland the week prior in a 63-20 loss. The defense was torched for a combined 1,262 yards in the two losses, which is certainly NOT what you want to see out of a favorite in any situation. While favored at the Carrier Dome this week, the Orange will be up against yet another opponent that is superior on the offensive side of the ball and you should expect WMU QB Jon Wassink to have a big day here. Syracuse is nothing close to the team they fielded last year as losing QB Dungy (school's all-time passing leader) is something they are still trying to overcome. Take the points. Dungy's replacement is Tommy DeVito, who has not played well to this point. DeVito is bottom 20 nationally in QBR and has more interceptions (4) than TD passes (3). Of course, DeVito's play is largely irrelevant when the Orange defense has played so poorly. They allowed a frightening 8.6 yards per play LW vs. Clemson. Obviously, the Tigers are as good as it gets, but Western Michigan is going to be able to move the ball here as well. Last year, the Broncos hung 42 points (in a losing effort) on the 'Cuse defense in the season opener at Kalamazoo. I'm sure they haven't forgotten and the fact this is a revenge game makes the spot even sweeter for the underdog. The Broncos put 57 points and nearly 700 total yards on the board last week vs. Georgia State, so that's even more evidence that they should score plenty here. The week prior saw them stymied at Michigan State, but that's as good a defense as they'll see all year. Wassink is in his third year as the starter here and is 13-1 SU vs. non-P5 teams. That record obviously doesn't apply here vs. an ACC opponent, but it's still worth mentioning. Wassink is also Top 10 in the country in QBR right now. With Syracuse now 1-6 ATS following a SU loss, the underdog is the play here (plus the points) as WMU can absolutely take this game outright. 8* Western Michigan |
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09-20-19 | Utah v. USC +4.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
10* USC (9:00 ET): These Pac 12 South rivals already have a common opponent and that's BYU. Each team had to go to Provo and both were listed as a 5-point favorite. Utah won their game, 30-12, while USC lost outright 30-27. So the Utes should be the obvious call here, right? (Especially seeing as we had them in the win over BYU). "Not so fast, my friend!" An interesting tidbit from those games is that the two teams averaged a near identical number of yards per play (5.75 vs. 5.72). Southern Cal may have lost, but did so in overtime. They also led in the 4th quarter, but ultimately could not overcome a -3 turnover differential. (Note: Utah was +3 in TO's in its game vs. BYU). With the home team having covered seven of eight matchups since Utah became a Pac 12 member, we'll take the points w/ the Trojans. With Southern Cal having lost QB J.T. Daniels to a season-ending ACL injury (in the 1st game), one would naturally think Utah has the edge offensively coming into this one. I'm not so sure that's the case. Even with QB Huntley and RB Moss returning, the Utes aren't likely to put up a ton of points on a consistent basis as they play at a very slow pace. USC has found a replacement for Daniels in freshman Kedon Slovis, who completed 28 of 33 pass attempts for 377 yards in the 45-20 win over Stanford, which was the last time the Trojans played at the Coliseum. Slovis wasn't quite as effective last week in his first career road start, but still completed 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Don't think Utah will simply be able to "outscore" USC in this one. I mentioned earlier that the home team is on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry. That also includes six straight wins by an average of 9 PPG. Our numbers actually indicate USC should be slightly favored here, even though Utah has covered the last three matchups, including a one-point loss here in LA two years ago. But the Utes have not won straight up at the Coliseum since 1916! Trojans HC Clay Helton has not been good as underdog in the past and his seat will only get warmer were his team to lose again this week. He's got road games at Washington and Notre Dame on deck, so expect an "all hands on deck" approach to this Friday night home game. 10* USC |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for home field advantage in these Thursday night NFL games. The road team has pulled an upset each of the first two weeks w/ Green Bay beating Chicago and Tampa Bay beating Carolina. But if an upset were to happen for a third straight time to open the season, this time it would be by the home team. Jacksonville comes in as a short home dog as they are 0-2 on the season following losses to Kansas City and Houston, both of whom were division winners last year. Something else to consider is that the Jags have been swept each of the last two years by the Titans. They will come into this game highly motivated and are our choice. Take the points. One of the big mistakes we made last week was overrating Tennessee's Week 1 performance in Cleveland. Sure, the Titans won that game 43-13. But they were only up two points late in the 3Q before the Browns imploded. Tennessee was actually outgained in that contest (346-339), but was fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. They are now +5 in turnovers on the season, but lost LW to the Colts 19-17. Truth be told, we were NOT high on Tennessee this year, but chose to take them last week as it seemed all the stars had aligned w/ the other three AFC South teams all losing in Week 1 and two of them seemingly having serious issues at the QB position. That line of thinking was obviously a mistake. Losing Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in Week 1 seemed like a death blow to the Jaguars' 2019 season. But backup Gardner Minshew II seems like he'll be a capable replacement. So far, Minshew has completed almost 70% of his pass attempts and he very nearly pulled off a comeback in Houston last week. (The Jags lost that game 13-12 as HC Doug Marrone elected to go for two and the win instead of kicking the extra point and forcing OT.) Moving forward, Tennessee probably isn't going to be as fortunate w/ turnovers as they've been the first two games. Even though he has asked to be traded, Jags DB Jalen Ramsey is going to play tonight. Don't be surprised if he has a good game and it's the Jags forcing some TO's against often error-prone Titans QB Marcus Mariota. It's a must-win game for the 0-2 Jags Thursday night. We'll back 'em. 10* Jacksonville |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane OVER 57.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Over Houston/Tulane (8:00 ET): Suffice to say, most probably wouldn't have banked on Tulane being favored over Houston in this game, let alone by more than a field goal. But the Green Wave have looked strong in both their wins, the first of which we were on as they clobbered FIU 42-14 as just a three-point home favorite in the opener. The big difference right now between them and Houston is that they've faced just one Power 5 opponent (Auburn) while UH has faced two (Oklahoma, Washington State). That is basically the sole reason Tulane comes into this game at 2-1 while Houston is 1-2. We cashed the Cougars in Week 1 as they covered at Oklahoma. They also covered last week vs. Washington State. Both of these teams can claim to have blown out a FCS opponent. It's really a pretty even matchup as Tulane is certainly improved while Houston is better than its record. Something else the teams have in common is they've gone Under in every game. Well, that comes w/ a caveat. There was no O/U line posted for Tulane's game last week, a 58-6 win over Missouri State. One would think if there had been, the game would have gone Over with that final score. The Green Wave offense is averaging 436 YPG, led by QB Justin McMillan. Since he took over as the starter halfway through last season, this has been a much better football team. They've gone 7-2 SU with the only losses coming to Auburn (24-6) two weeks ago and to ... Houston (48-17) last year. The Green Wave have scored 28 and 38 points in the first halves of their two home games this year. They have five players w/ at least 96 rush yards so far this season. Houston had a poor finish to last season (cost Major Applewhite his job), but remember what we said in the analysis for the Oklahoma game. That poor finish was tied to the loss of QB D'Eriq King (injured) for the last two games. Ironically, the injury he suffered (knee) last year came against this Tulane team. Before getting hurt, King accounted for FIFTY touchdowns (36 passing, 14 rushing), which led all of FBS. The bad news for the Cougars is the defense, which has given up 686 yards to Oklahoma, 343 to Prairie View A&M and 489 to Washington State. Both of these offenses can move the ball and score. The O/U lines for the first three Houston games were all 74+ points. The O/U line for LY's meeting was 68.0. So getting a number like this one seems like a real value play. 10* Over Houston/Tulane |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets +7 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): The Jets would certainly appear "up against it" here as starting QB Sam Darnold is out (mono) and will miss a significant period of time. They also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well. But in a battle of desperate 0-1 team, taking the points still seems like the logical way to go here, especially the in the wake of the line move when it was announced Darnold would be out. As we saw last week in a 43-13 home loss to the Titans, Cleveland may very well be overhyped. There's a lot of pressure here on a team that hasn't been a road favorite of more than five points since Bill Belichick coached here in 1995. Take the points. Speaking of former Browns' coaches, Gregg Williams guided the team to a 5-3 (SU) finish LY, which played a major role in the team getting so much attention in the offseason. Williams is now the DC for the Jets and finds himself in the headlines this week, not just b/c he's facing his former team. New Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr called Williams out for instructing his players to "injure" him in a 2017 preseason game (when OBJ was w/ the Giants and Williams was DC in Cleveland). This is probably much ado about nothing, but Williams being the Jets' DC now does give his team somewhat of an edge as he certainly knows the Browns' tendencies on offense. Even short-handed, look for the Jets defense to play well Monday night. As for the offense, the Jets should lean heavily on Le'Veon Bell, who had a nice return LW w/ 92 total yards on 23 touches. Bell did have a MRI Wednesday (shoulder) but checked out. The Jets should have won Week 1 at home vs. Buffalo as they were gifted a +4 TO margin in the 1H, but blew a 16-0 lead. Speaking of turnovers, Cleveland imploded in the 4Q LW vs. Tennessee w/ Baker Mayfield tossing three picks. They went from down 15-13 late in the third to 43-13 by the end of the game. It probably wasn't as bad as the final scored showed, but I come back to the fact that the Browns being favored on the road (let alone by this much) still doesn't "feel right." They've failed to cover four of the previous five times they've been favored (were -5.5 LW), losing three of those games outright. 10* NY Jets |
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09-15-19 | Bears v. Broncos OVER 40 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 51 m | Show |
10* Over Bears/Broncos (4:25 ET): We're going Over on the lowest total on the board Sunday. Certainly, it would appear as if Chicago has a significant edge heading into this Week 2 matchup as they've had FOUR extra days to prepare. But, like Denver, they're also off a loss and it was an ugly offensive effort to boot. They scored only three points in an Opening Night loss to rival Green Bay, which was at home. The Broncos weren't much flashier offensively in a 24-16 loss to the Raiders Monday night. Despite each team's history of Unders, we're going Over here as trends are (sometimes) made to be broken. Chicago has gone Under in its last six games dating back to last year. The jury is still out on QB Mitchell Trubisky, who didn't play well at against the Packers in Week 1. He surprisingly threw 45 times, completing only 26 for 228 yards. There's still reason to believe in HC Matt Nagy though. He was brought in for his offensive mind and I suspect we'll be seeing the Bears run the ball a lot more in Week 2. That said, it's not a bad idea for Trubisky to air it out when necessary against a Denver defense that just allowed an 84.6 completion rate to Derek Carr. Remember that Nagy & the Bears offense will be quite familiar w/ the Denver defensive schemes as their former DC Vic Fangio is now the Broncos head coach. Since the start of last season, Denver has gone 14-3 Under in all of its games. The Under is 10-0 the L10 games. However, while it's a long-term trend, the Broncos are 21-8 Over the week after playing Monday night. A big part of the reason they lost to the Raiders in Week 1 was red zone inefficiency. They kicked three field goals, two of them just 26 yarders and the other a curious decision when down 15 in the 4Q. Chicago's defense was as good as any in the league last year, but we see them slipping a bit w/ Fangio now in Denver. Look for this game to sneak Over the total. 10* Over Bears/Broncos |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show |
8* Under Chiefs/Raiders (4:05 ET): Well, the Kansas City offense showed no signs of slowing down from a record-setting 2018 campaign. In Week 1, they hung 40 points on a Jaguars defense that remains well-regarded. That was the sixth time since the start of last year that they'd done so. (Interestingly enough, the Chiefs LOST two of those games). There were only four games LY where they failed to score at least 30 and the fewest pts scored in any game was 26, ironically against a bad Arizona team. This week, the Chiefs play in Oakland against a Raiders team that's feeling pretty good about itself after a win Monday night. However, this total is too high (highest on the board) and we're going Under. Though they won rather handily, it wasn't all good news in Week 1 for the Chiefs. Speedster Tyreek Hill was lost to an injury. Even though Sammy Watkins had 198 yards receiving and three touchdowns last week, that kind of production simply cannot be counted on every week, especially from a player like Watkins. Slowing down this KC offense is easier said than done, but we do believe ultimately it will prove too difficult for them to match LY's record-setting producton. Over the L21 years, the Chiefs have gone Under 15 times in Week 2. Oakland averaged just over 18 PPG each of the last two seasons, but went for 24 last week vs. Denver. A short week is hardly ideal when facing one of the league's better teams and numerous trends point to a lower-scoring effort this week from the Raiders. They are 6-1-1 Under following a SU win and 5-0-1 Under following a game in which they had 250+ yards passing. Derek Carr completed almost 85% of his pass attempts against the Broncos. Even w/ my reservations about the Chiefs defense, Carr is unlikely to replicate that number this week. It's a divisional game, so there's familiarity with the respective schemes of each side (no coaching changes here). Look for the Chiefs' offense to "take a week off" (by their high-scoring standard) and the Raiders not to be that effective moving the ball compared to MNF. 8* Under Chiefs/Raiders |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 116 h 14 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): When handicapping the NFL, one must be careful to not overreact to single game or week. Case in point, we were not particularly high on the Titans coming into the year. But it's hard to disregard just how well things "broke" for Tennessee in Week 1. Not only did they go out on the road and destroy a clearly overhyped Cleveland team, 43-13, but look at what's going on in the rest of their division (AFC South). The other three teams lost and two of them (Indy, Jacksonville) now have serious issues at QB. Honestly, right now, it's hard NOT to make Tennessee the favorite to win the AFC South. The Colts are still trying to get over the shock of Andrew Luck's sudden retirement last month. Certainly, they can expect little sympathy from any future opponent. But especially Tennessee, who Luck tormented for the better part of this decade. Luck was drafted in 2012. Since that time, the Colts are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS vs. the Titans. Even that record is misleading though. Both Tennessee SU victories came in 2017, the year Luck missed due to injury. With Luck out of the picture, the Titans know that now is the time to seize the reigns of the division. Here, they are getting the Colts in the second of B2B road games, which is a tricky spot to open the year. Since 2015, teams that open the season w/ B2B road games have gone a money-burning 1-14 ATS, losing by almost 8.5 points per game. Meanwhile, this is Tennessee's home opener. They've gone 12-4 SU in Nashville the past two seasons and come in with plenty of confidence after last week's strong effort on the road where they appeared strong on both sides of the ball. Indianapolis fought valiantly against the Chargers in Week 1, but ultimately came up short in OT. Jacoby Brissett has been thrust into the starting QB role and ironically he was the starter for both losses two years ago to the Titans. Also of concern in Indy is kicker Adam Vinateri, who missed three kicks Sunday, essentially costing his team the game. Love the spot here for the Titans as they aren't going to pass on an opportunity to kick the Colts while they're down. 10* Tennessee |
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09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Teams that start 1-0 typically have difficulty sustaining "momentum" (I'll always hate that word!) when they have to hit the road in Week 2, going a money-burning 5-18 ATS in that role since 2016. Taking it a step further, when the team is playing the second of B2B road games to open the year, they are 1-14 ATS (since '15), losing by an average of 8.4 PPG. Now this particular situation is a bit unique w/ Buffalo as they're actually playing in MetLife Stadium for a second consecutive week! They came back to beat the Jets last week, 17-16, erasing a 16-0 hole they'd dug themselves thanks to FOUR 1st half turnovers. But I can't see them pulling off the "New York sweep" here as I remain bearish on their 2019 fortune. The Giants weren't as lucky as the Bills in Week 1 as they ran into a revamped Cowboys offense and got blown out 35-17. The way they defended Dallas' new RPO-heavy look was reminiscent of something you'd probably see in a backyard football game! But the good news is that the Bills don't have the same level of talent as the Cowboys. Also interesting is that the Giants' offense actually gained 470 total yards last week (7.2 yards per play!), exactly 100 more than the Bills did in their victory. The disparate results boiled down to efficiency, particularly in the red zone where the G-Men failed to score at all in two of their four chances. It is important to remember that the Bills trailed the Jets 16-0 midway through the third quarter last week. At the time, QB Josh Allen had already turned the ball over four times (2 INTs/2 fumbles) and the offense had just 155 total yards. But incredibly, they would more than double that yardage total on the next three drives, scoring 17 points and pulling off a shocking comeback. Really, the Bills had no business winning that game. They also benefited from two missed Jets' kicks, an extra point and a field goal. Eli Manning is 7-0-1 ATS as a dog vs. the AFC East in his career, including a couple of memorable Super Bowl upsets you "may" remember. 8* NY Giants |
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09-15-19 | 49ers +1.5 v. Bengals | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (1:00 ET): Interestingly enough, the same trend we cited as a reason to fade Buffalo is applicable here to the 49ers. They too opened their season w/ an "ugly" road win, beating the Buccaneers 31-17 despite being outgained. So what's the difference here w/ the Niners? Well, in the interest of full disclosure, I'm a lot higher on them than the market seems to be right now! My own personal power ratings have them as a field goal favorite for this game, which is against what I feel is one of the worst teams in the league, Cincinnati. Buck the trend here as the 49ers "shock the world" and open their season w/ B2B road wins out East! The Bengals turned in a game effort LW in Seattle, outgaining the Seahawks 429-232, but still coming up a point short (lost 21-20). I think a lot of people are going to see how close that game was and get fooled into thinking Cincy might be some kind of a threat on a weekly basis. Don't fall into that trap. While the Bengals should be commended for staying close in a game few, if any, expected them to win (they closed +9), I don't see this team winning very many games in 2019. They have a 1st year HC (Zac Taylor) who inherited a roster that peaked several years ago. I'm not convinced the "improvements" we saw on both sides of the ball LW are any sign of things to come. Meanwhile, all of my key indicators are pointing up for San Francisco this season. Last year, the team was dead last in turnover margin at -25 as they took the ball away only SEVEN times the entire season (including just TWO INT's)! That's a number that has a way of reverting back to the mean (league average), year to year. Already there are encouraging signs in that department as the Niners picked off THREE passes last week alone (see how that works?) and returned two for touchdowns! On offense, QB Jimmy Garoppolo is back and while his numbers from LW left a lot to be desired, note the Niners offense had TWO touchdowns negated due to penalties. To offset the travel, the team decided to stay out East this week and practice in Ohio. Smart move. Yes, they have injuries at RB, but so do the Bengals w/ Joe Mixon out. I look for the Niners to pull out a close one here. 8* San Francisco |
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09-14-19 | Florida State +8 v. Virginia | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
8* Florida State (7:30 ET): It's "put up or shut up" time for Willie Taggart and Florida State. The Seminoles were supposed to be improved in 2019 after going 5-7 SU LY, their 1st losing season since 1976! But so far, there hasn't been much sign of that. It started w/ an outright loss to Boise State in Week 1, a spot where we faded the 'Noles as the circumstances surrounding that game (date/time change due to Hurricane Dorian) made it seem like a real "leap of faith" (at least in our eyes) that they should be laying so many points. Still, even though we were on Boise State, we were stunned to see them shut out FSU in the 2H and come back from a DD deficit. It almost went from bad to worse LW against LA Monroe, but the 'Noles were able to escape with a 45-44 OT win. Virginia now seems to be the trendy pick to win the ACC Coastal (FSU is in the Atlantic w/ Clemson), which seems wide open now w/ Miami off to an 0-2 start. The Cavaliers won 8 games LY, their most in a season since 2011. They've already won conference game, opening the year by beating Pitt on the road, 30-14 (were 2.5-pt chalk). It was an even easier time LW w/ FCS William & Mary as the Hoos prevailed 52-17. Yet it sure is odd to see Virginia favored over Florida State. It's been decades since that was the case. Remember LY they were favored at Va Tech (who they still haven't beaten in 15 years) and lost the game outright. Maybe there is a changing of the landscape in the ACC, but it's tough to ignore the fact Florida State is 14-3 SU its L17 meetings vs. Virginia w/ all but one of the wins coming by double digits. The average margin of victory has been 24.6 PPG. While the pressure is definitely on Taggart in Tallahassee, the Seminoles have led their two games 31-19 and 24-7 at the half. Now they're underdogs for the 1st time. There won't be any kind of second half letdown this time and we're taking the points. 8* Florida State |
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09-14-19 | Kent State v. Auburn -35 | Top | 16-55 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
8* Auburn (7:00 ET): Kent State is going to be very bad this year. You may already guessed or even know that, but it is essential to this play. The bottom of the MAC just isn't ready to be competitive on a national platform such as this. We saw an example of that last week with our play on Wisconsin, who annihilated Central Michigan 61-0. Well, Auburn is probably every bit as good as Wisconsin and even though both games saw them fail to score enough points to even cover this spread, look for this to be the Tigers' coming out party. Lay the big number. Ironically, Kent State's QB Woody Barrett is an Auburn transfer. Perhaps it will be nice for Barrett to see some of his former teammates, but once the game gets going he may very well regret his decision to change sides. The Golden Flashes have yet to do much offensively as they put up only 200 total yards in the season-opening 30-7 loss to Arizona State. But losing that game was to be expected as they were 24-pt road dogs. Ironically, in victory last week, they may have been even less impressive. They needed OT to get by FCS Kennesaw State 26-23. Kent was only a 4.5-pt favorite in the game, which says a lot about the state of the program, and needed a late FG just to force OT. They were outgained by 100 yards (-7 FD's) and Kennesaw State is hardly a top tier FCS school. The jump in class here is about as steep as it gets for the Golden Flashes. Auburn had the "miracle" win to start the year over Oregon and then a less than stellar showing last week vs. Tulane. They will be looking for that proverbial "pound of flesh" and Kent State happens to be an ideal candidate. The Flashes are 0-14 SU all-time vs. the SEC, losing by an average of 37 PPG. They have allowed an average of 211 rush yards the first two games, which means this is the spot where the Auburn offense finally gets going. They can name the score here as they get ready for the SEC gauntlet. 8* Auburn |
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09-14-19 | Iowa -1 v. Iowa State | Top | 18-17 | Push | 0 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
10* Iowa (4:00 ET): I know that Iowa State is at home, off a bye and hasn't beaten Iowa in five years. But they're going to have to wait at least another year in Ames to hold the "coveted" Cy-Hawk Trophy. We were on Iowa in this matchup last year and they came through w/ an "ugly" 13-3 win in Iowa City. They're better in 2019 while you can't say the same for Iowa State. Look for no further than the Cyclones nearly losing the opener two weeks ago to FCS Northern Iowa, needing triple overtime to get by 29-26 as 20.5-point favorites. Now they take on the premier program in the state. Lay the points. Iowa is 2-0 w/ wins over Miami OH (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0). I thought last week's Big 10 opener couldn't have gone much better. What promises to be a good defense held the Scarlet Knights to just 125 total yards and two of the last three years they've held ISU to just a field goal. Remember that for LY's game, Iowa State was also off a bye, an unexpected one, as their season opener vs. South Dakota State had been cancelled. The Hawkeyes have won nine straight non-conference games, going 6-3 ATS in the process. They are also 17-2 SU their L19 games as a favorite, going 12-6-1 ATS. That includes 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS on the road. Perhaps the best news for Iowa coming into this year's matchup though is how their number of yards per play on offense is up significantly - from 5.44 to 6.27. I've seen a lot of people talk about how Iowa will struggle to run the ball in this game. Well, how about the other side of that equation? Iowa State ran for only 25 yards on 19 carries in LY's game and that was w/ David Montgomery as RB. Montgomery is now off to the NFL and Iowa's defense has allowed just 143 yards rushing - total - in its two games. While ISU's win over Northern Iowa was their seventh in a row at home (tying a school record), it was ugly as they could score only one TD in regulation. Both teams came into the year ranked, but only one (Iowa obviously) deserved to be and they deserve to be far bigger favorite for this rivalry matchup. 10* Iowa |
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09-14-19 | Arizona State v. Michigan State -14 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 23 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (4:00 ET): The Big 10 would appear to be quite loaded this year. I've got six teams in my Top 20. We're already playing one of them (Penn State) elsewhere in the 3-pack and here we'll also be laying double digits w/ another conference power, that being Michigan State. Sure, this play "smells" awfully similar to last week's misfire w/ Washington over Cal. It's a revenge spot for the favorite, but with one significant caveat. In this instance, the underdog (Arizona State) is traveling cross-country. We took the Sun Devils in LY's meeting, but not here. Lay the points. When Herm Edwards was hired to the coach at Arizona State, the jury was definitely out. But, ironically, it was the win over Michigan State in the 2nd week of last year that silenced the doubters. As mentioned, we were on ASU in that game as it was a late night start in hot Tempe. Edwards hired a good coaching staff around him, but a big difference between this year and last is the personnel on the field. Last year, it was a multi-year starter at QB (Manny Wilkins) throwing to one of the top receivers in the country (N'Keal Henry). Both are gone and this time the Sun Devils have a true frosh (Jayden Daniels) making his first career road start. The early returns on this ASU offense haven't been great as they've put up just 49 points against Kent State and Sacramento State. Last week's lone TD came w/ just 4:42 remaining on a 72-yard pass play. By the way, the Sun Devils' offensive line has been shaky as well. Of course, it wasn't necessarily the offense that won the game for ASU last year. It was a 16-13 game where the defense held Sparty to just 2.3 YPC. But Michigan State didn't have much trouble moving the ball, by land or through the air, last week against Western Michigan. They rolled up 582 total yards in the 51-17 win, including 251 on the ground. Remember that Michigan State was really hurt by injuries last year and easily could have finished better than 7-6. They're a much more experienced group this year and get revenge against Arizona State here. 8* Michigan State |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +14.5 | Top | 40-21 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 19 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): We've already seen Oklahoma State cover one double digit spread on the road as they went to Corvallis to open the season and beat Oregon State 52-36 as 13.5-pt chalk. But w/ this defense, we're not sure they're built to do that very often. The Pokes will be improved in 2019 after a string of 10-win seasons (three in a row) was broken last year (went 7-6) due to a bunch of upsets. They have beaten Tulsa all three times under Gundy by an average of 33 PPG. But this Tulsa team is a bit better and that Cowboys defense remains suspect. This is also Tulsa's home opener. Take the points. Oklahoma State also has some bigger fish to fry, namely next week's Big 12 opener in Austin. That's a game that's been decided by a field goal three of the last four years (all OSU wins). But for Tulsa, this is an in-state rivalry they'll treat w/ the utmost importance. For Oklahoma State, it's hardly Bedlam. I mentioned earlier that Tulsa is 0-3 vs. Gundy-led OSU teams and none of the games have been particularly close. Well, this is the Cowboys first trip East since 2011. It's a big deal for the Golden Hurricane. This is an experienced team w/ an underrated defense that played a lot of good teams close last year, including Texas, whom they only lost to by 7 (as 22-pt dogs) in Austin. Tulsa has already played Michigan State, who they lost to 28-7 in Week 1. While the Golden Hurricane were held to a frighteningly low yardage total (just 80 due to sacks!), that was an odd game. Michigan State scored five times in the second quarter, but one was a defensive TD and another was a safety. The three offensive scores, all field goals, came on drives that totaled ZERO yards. So Tulsa's D really did a good job against a superior opponent. Last week, they blew out San Jose State 34-16 w/ 539 total yds as they discovered the run game. In two games, Oklahoma State's defense has yielded an average of 164 rush YPG. Look for this to be a surprisingly close game. 10* Tulsa |
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09-14-19 | Pittsburgh v. Penn State -17 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 0 m | Show |
8* Penn State (12:00 ET): It's only been two games, but it's hard not to like what James Franklin and Penn State are doing. The metrics sure do love them as the Nittany Lions have outscored their two opponents 124-20. Sure, one opponent was an FCS school (Idaho) and they started slow last week against Buffalo (trailed 10-7 at halftime!). But when you start slow and still win 45-13, covering a 31-point spot to boot, that probably means you're a pretty talented football team. And talented in precisely what PSU is. I'll gladly lay the points in this Noon ET kickoff in Happy Valley. Pitt is coming off a pretty dominant 20-10 win over Ohio last Saturday in what was a really early kick (11 AM local time). The Panthers did finish w/ more than a 2:1 edge in total yards (481-212), but it's obviously a big step up in class this week as they hit the road to face a Power 5 opponent. It's a step up in class they haven't been able to handle under HC Pat Narduzzi as they're 0-3 ATS the L3 years, losing by a combined 64 pts in the previous two. In its last four games vs. P5 opponents, Pitt has scored a grand total of just 40 points. They have more turnovers (6) than touchdowns (4) in those games and have failed to gain a first down on half of their drives! That futile run against P5 opponents, including the season-opening loss to Virginia where the Panthers could only muster 14 pts and were completely shutout in the second half. It's a better defense that they'll be facing here and Franklin isn't shy about "pouring it on" late either. Penn State is 22-3 SU its last 25 games and has covered the spread in 16 of those games. They are also 12-4 ATS the L16 games at Beaver Stadium. Last year, this game was 51-6 and that was in Pittsburgh. It certainly doesn't help that the Panthers are banged up along the defensive line going into this matchup. 8* Penn State |
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09-14-19 | Arkansas State +33.5 v. Georgia | Top | 0-55 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 33 m | Show |
8* Arkansas State (12:00 ET): Going against #3 Georgia might sound like a risky proposition, however, might the Bulldogs be a bit "sleepy" in this early kickoff Saturday in Athens? They've got a much bigger game on deck (Notre Dame) next Saturday and certainly the players are feeling pretty good about themselves right now following wins over Vandy (30-6) and Murray State (63-17) to start the season. We're obviously getting a lot of points in this matchup and that scenario hasn't exactly treated UGA well under Kirby Smart as he's just 7-11 ATS as a home favorite, including 2-5 ATS vs. Group of Five teams. Georgia has also failed to cover four of the last five times it's been asked to lay 31 or more. Take the points. Arkansas State is off a highly emotional win as their HC Blake Anderson surprised the team by showing up before the game. Anderson had been on leave due to his wife, Wendy, passing away from cancer last month. Right from the kickoff, the Red Wolves played inspired football in Las Vegas, crushing UNLV 43-17. It was their first win of the year after losing under interim HC David Duggan to SMU the previous week, 37-30. That loss no longer looks like a reason for the Red Wolves to hang their heads, however, especially with the difference in the game being a kick return for touchdown. SMU just clobbered North Texas, so they might be a better football team than most realize. Arkansas State is obviously going to be driven by emotion the rest of the season. HC Anderson is now back with the team. Even the Georgia program has decided to honor Wendy's passing by announcing a a "pink-out" for Saturday's game. I just can't see ASU being blown out here, at least not to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for. Last year, the Red Wolves hung nearly 400 total yards on Alabama's defense, a game which will have them better prepared for what they face here. We saw what the offense could do last week and in two games, they have scored 73 points. They'll score enough here to cover the generous number. 8* Arkansas State |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina +3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (6:00 ET): Who says "you can't go back home again?" Mack Brown is back in Chapel Hill and North Carolina is 2-0 SU/ATS after opening the season w/ B2B upsets over South Carolina and Miami. Now, for the first time since Brown's return, I'm ready to proclaim the Tar Heels as being the better team GOING INTO the matchup as this week they face Wake Forest. Yes, the game takes place in Winston-Salem but this Demon-Deacons team appears overrated. Starting a season w/ three consecutive upsets is rare, but not unprecedented. Take the points. In an odd quirk, this is actually NOT an ACC game even though both schools hail from that particular conference. Because of the size of the ACC (14 teams) and that they aren't in the same division, the schools decided to renew their rivalry on their own. Good for them. The home team has won four straight w/ UNC's 50-14 triumph in 2015 being the last meeting. But during his previous tenure (1988-97), Brown feasted on his in-state rivals, winning the last 16 such games. I don't think there's any denying that Brown has this program pointed back in the right direction. The Tar Heels were going to be improved this year no matter who the coach was (lost five games LY by 7 pts or less), but it's looking like Brown was the right man for the job. Both teams have had their fair share of close calls so far. North Carolina's two wins have come by a total of seven points and both saw them rally late in the 4Q. They did finish w/ a 483-270 edge in total yds against South Carolina despite being down 20-9 entering the fourth. Wake Forest barely escaped Utah State in Week 1, winning on a late Kendall Hinton TD. But the WR is now injured and out. Last week against Rice, the Demon Deacons didn't pull away until late and actually had fewer first downs than the Owls. The Tar Heels were a lot better than their 5-19 SU record the L2 seasons and Brown clearly has them trending in the right direction. My power ratings indicate they should be FAVORED here. 8* North Carolina |
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09-12-19 | Bucs +7.5 v. Panthers | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (8:20 ET): Both teams are coming off Week 1 losses here. The Buccaneers could have beaten San Francisco, but instead lost 31-17 in a game where two Jameis Winston interceptions were returned for touchdowns. It was a very sloppy game that saw three total touchdowns scored by the defense (one by TB) and FIVE nullified due to penalties. Meanwhile, don't be fooled by the closeness of Carolina's 30-27 loss to the Rams at home. They never led and were down double digits most of the way. Both teams desperately want to avoid an 0-2 hole and I think this is far too many points to lay on a short week for Carolina. Go w/ the dog. I had BOTH of these teams improving this year. One week in, they each have some work to do. I outlined the Panthers' path for improvement in my analysis last week. It had a lot to do w/ their record in close games over the L2 seasons. Two years ago, they were quite good in them. Last year, not so much. Well, last week's result definitely mirrored the second half of last season as they dropped to 0-6 their L6 games decided by seven points or less. But the reality is they were lucky to even finish that close as they punched in a garbage time TD in the final two minutes to make it 30-27. Going back to last season, a big issue w/ the offense has been Cam Newton's failure to "go deep." His longest completion in Wk 1 went for only 17 yds and he only attempted one pass of 20+ yds. Ultimately, I think Bruce Arians will have the Bucs improved. Whether or not he has the right pieces right now is up for debate. But the Bucs offense, which did gain a ton of yds last year, should have been better in Week 1. A lot of that falls on Winston and the interceptions. Look for him to clean up those mistakes here. The Bucs' defense did its job week, holding the 49ers to just 256 total yards. In the end, I view the market as being too one-sided on this matchup as the underdog is going to be every bit as desperate as the favorite. 10* Tampa Bay |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 42 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 11 m | Show |
10* Over Broncos/Raiders (10:20 ET): Well, we know what the story going into this game will be. One of the oddest sagas in recent NFL history ended Saturday w/ the Raiders releasing WR Antonio Brown before he even got to play a regular season game for them. Truth be told, Jon Gruden's return here to Oakland has been rocky at best. With Brown, the Raiders are a team we expected to improve (some) in 2019 and the same holds true for their Week 1 opponent, Denver. The Broncos have a new QB, or rather an old one in Joe Flacco, who comes over after leaving Baltimore. It's a really low total Monday night and you should look for the game to go Over the total. Looking at team-by-team OU records from LY, none really stand out except one. Denver stayed Under in 13 of 16 games. They only averaged 20.6 points per game, but only gave up 21.8. They actually played better than you realize in the sense that they were only outscored by 20 pts over the course of the season and were 6-6 through 12 games. Flacco is clearly not a long-term solution at QB, nor are we even sure he's a good option in the present, but the Broncos should easily score in this game against an Oakland defense that gave up the most points in the league last year. Denver has gone Over in eight of its last nine season openers. With Brown gone, how will the Raiders score points? Well, it starts w/ Derek Carr, who three years ago guided this offense to a respectable 25.3 PPG. The Silver and Black have been down to 18.8 and 18.1 PPG the last two seasons and those are simply unacceptable numbers. The Raiders do have a lot of new starters on offense even w/ Brown gone and a suspect line is going to have to do a better job at protecting Carr. But look for the Raiders to score more than you think Monday night. The same holds true for Denver. Again, this is a low number. Take the Over. 10* Over Broncos/Raiders |
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09-08-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 55 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (4:25 ET): This is a matchup where we are markedly higher on one team and markedly lower on the other. On paper, it's easy to understand why so many are writing off the Giants in 2019. They went 5-11 last season, lost WR Odell Beckham Jr in the offseason and made a questionable 1st round draft pick (QB Daniel Jones out of Duke). But this team wasn't as bad as you might think last season as they finished middle of the pack in DVOA and were only outscored by 43 points. The fact they lost eight games by 7 pts or less (most in the league) signals they may have actually been more unlucky than bad. Dallas was certainly more lucky than good last year. They went 10-6 SU and won the division despite only outscoring opponents by 15 pts over the course of the season. To put that point differential in its proper perspective, note that the other three division winners in the NFC were all +138 or better! Things really changed for the better after a mid-season trade for WR Amari Cooper. But it was not Cooper, nor the exploits of any one individual player that drove the Cowboys' success. Rather, it was a 9-2 record in games decided by 7 pts or less. That includes a perfect 7-0 after the Cooper trade, all those wins coming in the final nine weeks. Just once did the Cowboys win a game by more than eight points all year! The running back position is likely to be spotlighted in this matchup. With Beckham gone, the Giants are likely to lean heavily on second year RB Saquon Barkley, who had an outstanding rookie year. Dallas' bellcow Ezekiel Elliott just signed this week and there's no way he'll be in "game shape." Throw in the likely change these teams are going to experience this year in close games and you can smell an upset here. The G-Men also will be motivated by revenge as they've been swept the last two years by the Cowboys. The Giants have covered 11 of their last 16 road games. 10* NY Giants |
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09-08-19 | Bills v. Jets -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -100 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, we're higher on the Jets than most are for this season. We see a team that has plenty of room to improve, and should given that they finished LY 1-5 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less and w/ a -10 turnover differential. They have one of the worst Pythagorean win differentials (-1.3) as well, signaling that they were a lot better team than what you'd think w/ a 4-12 SU finish. QB Sam Darnold actually played a lot better in the 2nd half of his rookie season as his TD-INT ratio in the L4 games was 6-1. The offense adds RB Le'Veon Bell, who is fresh after sitting out all of last season and there's a new HC (Adam Gase) to preside over it all. Most are going to view these two AFC East rivals as being pretty even coming into 2019. But while we're high on the Jets, the same cannot be said for Buffalo. They did have two more wins than the Jets LY, but the two teams finished w/ nearly identical point differentials. We remain unsold on 2nd year QB Josh Allen as well. His 53% completion rate was worst in the league last year. Remember that it was at this time last year, many (us included) were projecting the Bills to be the worst team in football. They surprised in going 6-10 SU, but don't let that fool you into thinking they'll be improved for this year. Unlike the Jets, there were no substantive additions made on either side of the ball for the Bills, or on the coaching staff for that matter. The offense was actually quite bad last year and we don't think the defense is going to be as good this year. If we're right about the Jets, then it means beating the Bills at home. These teams split last year, but each time the road team won. The Bills' defense gave up 200+ rush yards in three games last season. So Bell could have a big debut here for the Jets. Buffalo has won just 5 of its last 17 road games and is 7-16 SU as an underdog. Lay the short number. 10* NY Jets |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): All the key metrics indicate that the Panthers will be an improved team in 2019. Ironically, it was at this time last year, we were proclaiming they were set to regress. The 2017 team that made the playoffs (went 11-5 SU overall) did so on the strength of a 7-2 record in one-score games and that was unsustainable. Now, for awhile there, our calls for regression looked foolish as the Panthers started last year 6-2. But, it turned out we were right as they lost their next seven games (five of them by 7 pts or less) and missed the playoffs altogether. Now, for many of the same reasons we said they'd regress last year, we believe they'll improve this year. Under HC Ron Rivera, the Panthers have a habit of having bounce back years w/ their record in "close games" almost being like a yo-yo year to year. Sean McVay has transformed the Rams into one of the league's real powerhouses the last two seasons. They made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but chose a most inopportune time to have their worst offensive game under McVay. The Patriots held them to 260 total yards and three points in an ugly game. What New England did that day will be studied and borrowed by all future Rams' opponents. One thing we know is certain and that's LA won't be repeating LY's 7-1 record in close games (sound familiar?), which happened to be a league best. It will also be challenging to match LY's +11 turnover differential as well. So, with one team set to improve and the other set to regress, our call on this one is pretty easy. Cam Newton wasn't healthy down the stretch for the Panthers last season and while he sustained a minor injury in the preseason, all indications are that he's ready to roll here in Week 1. Todd Gurley was basically M.I.A. in the Super Bowl for the Rams and we think he's a big question mark heading into this season. The loser of the previous year's Super Bowl has gone 3-16 ATS in Week 1 the L19 seasons as there's often a "hangover effect" from losing that big game. Newton is 14-5 ATS as an underdog since 2015, including a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times he's gotten points at home. Teams that missed the playoffs and had a losing ATS record the previous year (Carolina was 7-9 ATS) are 30-15-1 ATS the L10 years in Week 1 if matched up w/ a playoff team. 8* Carolina |
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09-07-19 | California v. Washington -13.5 | Top | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 45 m | Show |
10* Washington (10:30 ET): You wanna talk some line value. Last year when these teams met, Washington was an 11-point favorite in Berkeley. They obviously lost outright (12-10), setting up the big revenge play here. But only having to lay a similar number here in Seattle seems like a real bargain. The Huskies were ranked #15 in the country at the time of LY's loss and while Chris Petersen's team isn't being considered nearly as dangerous for 2019, that seems a bit foolish on the surface as they're actually ranked slightly higher currently and we agree w/ the pollsters' assessment. Lay the number here in this Pac 12 opener! It's not just the revenge angle that has us on UW here. We're simply not fans of this Cal team either as they figure to really struggle to put points on the board. They got away w/ not scoring a single offensive TD in last year's upset, but don't figure to be that fortunate again as the Huskies are certainly reminding themselves of what happened that day. While it's a new year, Cal has only four starters back on offense. They turned the ball over quite a bit in 2018 and that looks like it's still going to be a problem as they coughed it up four times in last week's 27-13 win over Cal Davis. The Bears' defense is very good, one of the nation's best on the backend in fact, but they are going to be tested a lot more here. One of the reasons you should not expect much of a slip w/ Washington this season is they brought in a transfer at QB in Jacob Eason, who comes over from Georgia. Eason's first start saw him throw for four touchdowns and 349 yards in a 47-14 rout of Eastern Washington. The Huskies also ran for 200 yards on offense as it really was a complete performance. This is a team that has won the Pac 12 two of the last three seasons and can absolutely get back to the Championship Game again this year. They are a perfect 14-0 SU at home the last three years, so not only will there be no upset this time around, look for the Huskies to win big Saturday night in a revenge spot on National TV. 10* Washington |
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09-07-19 | Minnesota v. Fresno State +3.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 104 h 44 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It can't be understated as to what an amazing turnaround Jeff Tedford has engineered here at Fresno State. Two years ago, he inherited a team that had just gone 1-11 SU and finished dead last in the Mountain West Conference. Under his direction, the Bulldogs have gone a stunning 22-6 SU and 20-6-2 at the betting window. They were 12-2 SU last year and won the Conference Title, winning at Boise State. That was a revenge spot for a regular season loss on the blue turf. Late Saturday, FSU gets a shot at revenge for the other of LY's two losses, that being Minnesota, who now must come out to the West Coast (LY's game in Minneapolis). Take the points. Last year was a very even game that saw Fresno State give up the go-ahead score (was tied 14-14) w/ just over three minutes remaining. The game ended w/ FSU throwing an INT in the end zone on the potential game-tying score. I love the fact that the Bulldogs are getting points at home for this rematch as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS as underdogs under Tedford following LW's cover at USC. While they lost the game 31-23, note FSU actually outgained the Trojans 462-447. Yes, Southern Cal lost its starting QB to a season ending injury, but the real key was a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD in the third quarter. Take that away and it was basically an even game at the Coliseum. Minnesota is not as good as USC, but you already knew that. PJ Fleck's team had trouble beating South Dakota State last week, winning by only seven (28-21) as 14-pt favorites. Yes, South Dakota State is one of the better FCS programs. But Minnesota needed a late score just to win the game on the field. The problem for the Gophers appears to be along the line - on both sides of the ball. They gave up a ton of rushing yards last week (174) and considering Fresno just ran for 200+ against USC, expect them to rack up plenty of yards over land in this one as well. 8* Fresno State |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -6.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -116 | 98 h 31 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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09-07-19 | Central Michigan v. Wisconsin -34 | Top | 0-61 | Win | 100 | 97 h 56 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): It's important NOT to overreact to just one game. However, if Wisconsin's season-opening win over USF (49-0 shutout!) was any indication, then the Badgers may be more improved that most realize. This was going to be an improved team anyway after shockingly falling to just eight wins LY, the low-water mark in Madison over the past decade. The Badgers are our choice to win the wide-open Big 10 West this year and are a potential Top 10 team down the line. Currently ranked #16 in the polls, they should have zero difficulty in blowing out a Central Michigan team that is probably still the worst the MAC has to offer. The huge number won't scare us off. Lay it! That 49-0 win over South Florida last week came on the road for Paul Chryst's team as they outgained the Bulls 433-157. If you recall, we railed against USF for much of last season, but at one point they were ranked. So they have every right to be excited in Madison right now. Remember that RB Jonathan Taylor is coming off a season in which he ran for 2194 yards! He ran for four touchdowns last week. The defense wasn't up to par last year, but clearly has improved. In Chryst's first three seasons here, the Badgers never allowed more than 16 PPG. That number spiked to 22.6 PPG last season, but will almost certainly decrease in 2019. Central Michigan was horrible last season, winning only 1 game and it was against FCS Maine (by a score of 17-5!). Jim McElwain, who previously failed at Florida, takes over this job and it's a pretty big rebuild up in Mount Pleasant. The Chippewas did open the season w/ a 38-21 win, but it was against FCS Albany and giving up that many points probably isn't a good sign. The defense was considered the stronger side of the ball last year, but still allowed over 200 rush yards per game and has just three starters back. So Taylor should run wild here. CMU did have only three losses by 24+ points LY and just one (51-13 at Toledo in the final game) by more than this spread. But it's been a long time since the Chips faced a team as good as Wisconsin. It promises to be a LONG Saturday for them. 8* Wisconsin |
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09-07-19 | Bowling Green +23.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 0-52 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 21 m | Show |
8* Bowling Green (12:00 ET): This is one where we don't see an outright upset, but we're not about to bypass taking this many points against a Kansas State squad still getting its proverbial "feet wet" in the post Bill Snyder era. The Wildcats slipped to 5-7 SU in Snyder's final season, missing a bowl for the 1st time in nine seasons, by blowing a 17-pt lead in the reg season finale at Iowa State (but they still covered for us!). Chris Klieman takes over, coming from North Dakota State where he won four FCS Nat'l Titles in five years. His first game went well w/ the Wildcats running for a school record 361 yards (on 58 carries) against FCS Nicholls State. Though Bowling Green has struggled the last several years, don't expect them to get run over like that. Take the points. Bowling Green also has a 1st year HC in Scott Loefer, who spent the better part of the last decade serving as the OC for some high profile programs (Auburn, Va Tech & BC). This is clearly a massive rebuild he's undertaking and it didn't help that QB Jarret Doege decided to transfer late. But the Falcons' first game was a success as they too clubbed a FCS opponent, beating Morgan State 46-3 w/ a 620-70 edge in total yards! Consider that a "confidence-builder" for a rare P5 game against a team from a conference other than the Big 10. Kansas State has two big road games on deck, at Mississippi State and Oklahoma State w/ a bye week in between. Don't be surprised if late in the game (assuming this one isn't coming down to the wire), the coaching staff doesn't become more concerned about those games than this one. As for BGSU, who just suffered through three bad seasons under former HC Mike Jinks, expect an all-out effort Saturday afternoon in Manhattan. The early start time may do no favors for the favorite either. Consider that this spread is currently larger than what KSU was asked to lay to an FCS opponent last week. There were only three times in the previous two seasons where the Wildcats were asked to lay between 21 and 31 points. They won all three games, but failed to cover twice. This is too big a number for them to be laying right now. 8* Bowling Green |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse v. Maryland -1 | Top | 20-63 | Win | 100 | 93 h 17 m | Show |
8* Maryland (12:00 ET): Over the course of the final nine weeks of last year's NCAAF regular season, we nailed an amazing 18 outright upsets. Wasting little time this year, we've already nailed Hawaii (+11.5) on Opening Night as well as Boise State over Florida State last Saturday. We anticipated this to be the latest addition to our "upset brigade," but unfortunately it can no longer qualify as the line has "jumped the fence" here w/ Maryland now favored. Never fear though. The Terps still are a solid play here as Syracuse (#21 AP/#22 Coaches) is a ranked team in name only. It's a new era in College Park, MD w/ Mike Locksley taking over. Locksley served as the OC under Nick Saban at Alabama the L2 seasons and was the Broyles Award Winner (top assistant) last year. The Maryland players went through alot LY w/ the death of a teammate and the dismissal of D.J. Durkin. But they still opened w/ an emotional 34-29 upset of Texas. Locksley's 1st game as HC projected to be a whole heck of a lot easier and it was w/ Terps beating Howard 79-0. It was a 56-0 game at halftime, giving the starters some rest coming into this week, which is their 1st real test. The Terps finished w/ a 623-68 edge in total yds last wk despite basically taking the 2nd half off. The defense, which has five seniors, allowed just 1 rushing yard and never allowed Howard to cross midfield. For the record, the line flipping might be a blessing in disguise considering the Terrapins are 6-3 ATS their L9 times favored. Dino Babers looks to be building a winner at Syracuse. Last year, his 3rd on the job, saw him guide the Orange to a 10-win season. But don't look for them to be as good as last year. A season-opening win over Liberty (24-0) showed that the offense is going to miss dynamic QB Eric Dungey, who graduated as the school's all-time passing leader. Yes, like Maryland, the 'Cuse pitched a shutout last week as well. But it came against an opponent whose HC was laying in a hospital bed (not making this up!). All three of the Orange's losses LY came outside the Carrier Dome. They are just two years removed from a winless season on the road. Maryland is the better team and look for them to win this battle of former ACC rivals. 8* Maryland |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Packers/Bears (8:25 ET): Going into last year, I predicted that Chicago would be one of the more improved teams in the league. Little did I know just HOW improved they'd end up being. The Bears rode of the league's top defenses to 12-4 SU and the NFC North title while 1st year HC Matt Nagy also retooled the offense. They ended up being one and done in the playoffs, losing at home to Philadelphia on the infamous Cody Parkey missed kick. For 2019, I do not think the Bears will match LY's win total, but do expect they'll still contend for the playoffs. When the Packers fell to 7-9 SU in 2017, they had the built-in excuse of an Aaron Rodgers injury. But w/ a full season of Rodgers, the Pack shockingly won one fewer game in 2018. Mike McCarthy was finally shown the door and in steps Matt LaFleur, who will be tasked with squeezing the most out of the team w/ Rodgers still in his prime. I do think Green Bay will be better this year. In fact, they're my call to win the division. That doesn't mean I'm picking them to win here in Chicago though. One thing is for certain - after blowing a huge lead to Green Bay in Week 1 last year, the Bears will come out motivated at home. Four of the last five meetings between these rivals have gone Over the number. The one that didn't was the most recent, a 24-17 victory by the Bears that snapped a five-game losing streak in the rivalry. The Bears scored 23 and 24 in the two games last year and I think the offense should continue to improve under Nagy. I do not think the defense will be able to match LY's numbers. Specfically, a +12 turnover margin. The Bears also lost DC Vic Fangio. Free from the shackles of McCarthy, expect Rodgers to excel. He threw only TWO INT's LY despite 450+ attempts. Unfortunately, I'm not sold on the Packers' defense. The Pack have gone Over in 7 of their last 8 regular season openers and 37 of their L55 road games. 10* Over Packers/Bears |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 54.5 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Notre Dame/Louisville (8:00 ET): This number has been bet way down, opening up an opportunity to bet the game Over. Louisville is coming off an absolutely disastrous 2018 campaign that led to Bobby Petrino being run out of town (again!) But as bad as last year was, I think Scott Sattefield is walking into a fairly ideal situation here as the Cardinals can only improve in 2019. Aiding in that improvement is the fact there are 16 returning starters, including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. But make no mistake about it, this defense has a LONG way to go after giving up a ghastly 44.1 PPG a year ago. While Louisville fell into the abyss, Notre Dame made it all the way to the College Football Playoff. They were of course embarrassed by Clemson, losing 30-3 as 12-pt underdogs. That line and subsequent result raised questions about whether or not the Irish were deserving of the spot in the playoffs, but if this school goes unbeaten in the regular season, they're always going to get in. I don't think this is anything close to a playoff team in 2019 and in fact expect some fairly serious regression in South Bend. They were a perfect 4-0 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less last year and that isn't likely to repeat itself. Notre Dame's defense was really good last year, giving up just 18.2 PPG. That was their lowest number under HC Brian Kelly since the team that reached the Nat'l Champ Game in 2012 (and also got embarrassed). But they lost three players to the NFL Draft on that side of the ball as well as three of their top five tacklers. Louisville isn't going to be as inept offensively as they were last year, but the defense will continue to struggle early on, despite all those returning starters. Both teams return LY's starter at QB, so it'll be the offenses that are ahead of the defenses in this one. Louisville closed last season on a 7-1 Over run. 10* Over Notre Dame/Louisville |
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09-01-19 | Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 104 h 26 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:30 ET): Oklahoma HC Lincoln Riley has earned the moniker of "quarterback whisperer" in his two seasons at Norman, although I'm not sure just how much actual whispering is required when you have the likes of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray (the last two #1 overall DC's of the NFL) at your disposal. Riley and the Sooners have seemingly been gifted another star QB in the form of Jalen Hurts, who transferred out of Alabama when it became Tua Tagovailoa was the man in Tuscaloosa. Hurts will be tasked w/ leading a team in search of its fourth playoff appearance in the last five years. The Sooners figure to be favored in every game this season, but are laying a hefty number to a Houston team in the opener. Take the points here. It was 2016, one year before Riley took over for Bob Stoops, that Oklahoma lost outright to Houston in the season opener. They were 12-pt favorites that day, on a neutral field, and lost 33-23 to a Houston team that had legit playoff aspirations of their own that season. Things didn't play out that way (team finished 9-4 SU that year) and Tom Herman wound up leaving for Texas. After two seasons of Major Applewhite at the helm, a change was made and Dana Holgorsen is now running the show. Holgorsen is very familiar w/ OU having coached at WVU the last eight seasons. He didn't have much success, but this team is arguably more talented than what he had the last few years in Morgantown. Speaking of QB's, Houston's D'Eriq King must be mentioned. He accounted for FIFTY touchdowns a year ago and that was with missing the final two games, neither of which went well for the Cougars. Injuries also hurt on the defensive side of the ball and that showed in those final two games (both blowout losses). But because of those injuries, the returning defense has more experience. Under Holgorsen, King should flourish. This is a very dangerous Houston team, one that should not be getting this many points, even in Norman. The Cougars were actually favored in every game King started last year. Oklahoma has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been chalk of 21.5 to 31 points. 10* Houston |
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08-31-19 | Duke +33.5 v. Alabama | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 35 m | Show |
10* Duke (3:30 ET): I'm certain you recall Alabama being absolutely humiliated by Clemson last January in the BCS Title Game as Nick Saban was handed perhaps his worst ever defeat, losing 44-16. So the narrative seems to be that the Crimson Tide are going to come out angry in 2019, looking to blow everyone away (much like they did last year before running into Clemson). The Tide are quite accustomed to these neutral site season openers, winning nine in a row by an average of 24 PPG. But I'd be hesitant about laying this many points. In fact, I'm grabbing the number as Duke is always pesky under HC David Cutcliffe. Now, at the end of the game, I fully anticipate the announcers yelling "Roll Tide." I just don't think they'll "roll" as much as the oddsmakers think they will. Duke comes into the year having to replace QB Daniel Jones, who the NFL's Giants made their top draft choice. While that pick may have been somewhat maligned by draftniks, Jones will be missed in Durham. Still, I trust Cutcliffe enough to expect him to get something out of the QB position. Quentin Harris has made only two career starts (both coming LY when Jones was hurt), but is a senior. One starting receiver (Jake Bobo) is out, but he didn't exactly have awe-inspiring numbers last year. The bottom line is that the only P5 teams w/ more bowl victories than Duke in the L4 years are: Alabama, Clemson and Wisconsin. The Blue Devils can make a game out of this, at least for awhile, which will keep this game within the number. Alabama obviously lost a ton of talent to the NFL. While they're in solid position to replace it, there will still be many first-time starters in the lineup. I don't expect the same fire we saw from the Tide last year, at least in non-conference play. Maybe that will disappoint Saban, but he can settle for another SEC Title & playoff sport. Duke is 10-2 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons and 8-2 ATS when getting 31 or more points going back to '93. 10* Duke |
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08-31-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -5 | Top | 10-15 | Push | 0 | 73 h 0 m | Show |
8* Memphis (12:00 ET): Consider all that happened to Memphis last season. There were four different games where they blew a DD lead and lost. Two were against a UCF team that would run the table in the regular season. The other two were upset losses at the hands of Navy (terrible weather) and Wake Forest (Birmingham Bowl). They were also upset as two-touchdown chalk at Tulane. That Tulane loss left them 0-2 in AAC play. Yet the Tigers would still go onto win their division and appear in the Conference Title Game. This year's team projects to be better and I'm taking them in the season opener vs. Ole Miss. Now you may be questioning laying points w/ an AAC team against an opponent from the big, bad SEC. But know that Memphis has gone 13-2 SU at the Liberty Bowl the L2 seasons w/ both losses coming by a single point! They are 0-4 SU against UCF the L2 yrs, but 18-5 SU vs. everyone else. It was four years ago that Ole Miss came to the Liberty Bowl as a 10-pt favorite and lost by double digits (38-24). That was a much more talented Rebels squad too; at the time they were ranked #13 in the country. The Ole Miss team that arrives this year hasn't had a winning season since 2015. They have just three returning starters on offense as well. Now the Rebels were dealing w/ a bowl ban the L2 years and have made significant changes at coordinator w/ Rich Rod running the offense and Mike MacIntyre running the defense for HC Matt Luke. There are 10 starters back on defense. But they are going to struggle to score in the early going (freshman QB) and that should prove costly against a Memphis team that's averaged no fewer than 38.8 PPG under HC Jay Norvell. This is an 11 AM start local time. Ole Miss has gone just 3-6 SU, 2-6 ATS on the road the L2 seasons and is 2-10 SU, 2-9 ATS as a dog. Memphis is not only 13-2 SU at home the L2 season, but also 10-5 ATS. Lay the short number. 8* Memphis |
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08-31-19 | Boise State +5 v. Florida State | Top | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 59 m | Show |
10* Boise State (12:00 ET): Well, Mother Nature has intervened here, moving the game from Jacksonville to Tallahassee due to the threat of Hurricane Dorian. That turns it from a de facto to actual home game for Florida State. In the interest of full disclosure, I had Boise State before the news came out. I'm sticking w/ them too as now we'll (likely) be able to get an even better number. Remember this is just as much a disruption for FSU as it is the Broncos (game takes place earlier in the day now too). You're not going to see Boise, a 31-win team the last three seasons, getting points very often. Take advantage. Florida State does figure to be one of the more improved teams in the country. Last year seemed almost like a "worst case scenario" under HC Willie Taggart as the 'Noles finished 5-7 SU and missed out on a bowl for the 1st time since 1982! It was their first losing season since Bobby Bowden's 1st year here, back in 1976! Taggart can only dream of the kind of career Bowden had here. While this team is definitely going to be better than last year's edition, I think this spread is a classic case of "putting the cart before the horse," or Bronco, whichever you'd like. The last two years have seen Florida State go just 8-16 against the spread. Boise State is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a dog. FSU had only one win over a ranked team last year and it was BC (#22) by 1 pt here at home. Boise State brings a tremendous defense to Florida. The Florida State defense remains a question mark. Due to the change in time and venue, plus weather uncertainty, don't be surprised if this turns into a low-scoring game as well. Fewer total points scored is just another reason to take the underdog in this one as Boise's freshman QB Hank Bachmeier can make some plays. 10* Boise State |
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08-30-19 | Rice v. Army -21.5 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -103 | 55 h 2 m | Show |
8* Army (6:00 ET): Army just keeps marching along under HC Jeff Monken, who has set a new school record for wins in a single season each of the last two years! The Cadets were 11-2 last year, one of those losses coming at Oklahoma (in overtime!) The other was the season opener at Duke, the only "bad" game they played all season. Something tells me that Monken will have his team far better prepared for the season opener this year, which comes against a Rice team that projects to be one of the worst, if not THE worst team in the entire country! The Black Knights can name the score here. Lay the points. Army has gone 21-5 SU the last two seasons and ended LY ranked #19 after clobbering Houston 70-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl. This is truly a team to be reckoned with now. They've won 23 straight at West Point as well. Rice won't be threatening them straight up here, rather it's all about the pointspread and final margin of victory. Yes, the Owls have had a full offseason to prepare for the triple option offense Army runs. But considering how bad the defense was last year, it'll take a lot more than just preparation. The last two games vs. Army have resulted in losses by a combined score of 80-26. Rice won just two games last year, the opener (vs. FCS Prairie View A&M) and the finale (upset of Old Dominion). In between, they lost 11 in a row and were outgained by 138 yards per game in C-USA. Unless something drastic changes, the Owls project to be underdogs in all 12 games this year. They were 0-7 SU on the road a season ago, losing all seven by at least two touchdowns. The defensive line is inexperienced coming into the year. Army's offense led the country in time of possession last year while Rice's simply lacks the firepower to keep up. Last year, the Owls averaged only 18.9 PPG (actually up from 16.3 in '17!) 8* Army |
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08-29-19 | Utah -6.5 v. BYU | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:15 ET): One of these years, BYU is going to win a "Holy War" (lost 8 in a row). It just isn't going to be in 2019. The Cougars seemed to get plenty of love from early bettors for this season opening matchup vs. rival Utah, but the Utes are a legit top 15 team in the country this year and one of the favorites out in the Pac 12. Thus, this number looks to be way too short. Yes, many of these games have been close, including last year when Utah came back from a 27-7 deficit to win 35-27 (-11) in Salt Lake. But this Utes team just may be the most talented BYU has faced in recent memory. Lay the short number. Consider that last year Utah made it to the Pac 12 Championship Game (lost to Washington 10-3) despite losing their starting QB and RB midway through the season. Both are back and ready to contribute in a major way. You know the Utes are going to be eager to take the field here after losing a bowl for just the second time under HC Whittingham. Something not talked about enough outside Pac 12 circles is that Utah perennially has one of the best special teams units in the country. They are also very strong along both the offensive and defensive lines entering the season. BYU went 7-6 last season, a nice bounce back from the somewhat shocking 4-win campaign in 2017. This is HC Kalane Sitaki's fourth year in Provo and obviously he's winless in "Holy Wars." While the Cougars should be a decent team in 2019, they simply are not at the level of the Utes, who (again) are a legit top 15 team. There are plenty of returning starters for Sitaki (17 total), but still there exists a gap between his team and the one in Salt Lake. Consider that in last year's comeback win, Utah didn't have either QB Huntley or RB Moss. Now they do. This number is just too low. 8* Utah |
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08-29-19 | Florida International v. Tulane -2.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 33 h 0 m | Show |
10* Tulane (8:00 ET): Tulane has seen its win total inherit in each of Willie Fritz's three seasons. Fritz inherited a 3-win team in 2016, brought them up to 4, then 5 in 2017 (just missed a bowl) and then finally 7 last year, including that elusive bowl win (1st since '02). The Green Wave started just 2-5 SU last year before going 5-1 down the stretch. While an easier second half schedule was somewhat responsible for the surge, credit must also be given to QB Justin McMillan, whose insertion into the starting lineup also coincided w/ the surge. Only five offensive starters return for Tulane, but one is McMillan, now a senior. Fritz should also have one of his better defenses this year w/ eight starters back on that side of the ball. Speaking of improving, credit must be given to the coaching job being done at FIU by Butch Davis. In his two years back in Miami (previously served at "The U"), he's led the Panthers to 8 and 9-win seasons. Last year's ended with a bowl win, same as Tulane, 35-32 over Toledo. Davis will have eight starters back on both sides of the ball this year, including senior QB James Morgan (NFL prospect) and expectations are thus pretty high for this team. But after going 4-1 SU on the road last year, I see the Panthers actually taking a step back in '19 (maybe just a slight one). Last year, FIU pulled off six outright upsets as underdogs. I don't see that happening again either. These teams met back in 2017 w/ FIU winning 23-10 as a DD home dog. That right there should tell you how far the program has come under Davis. But look for Fritz and Tulane to get revenge here. They're used to opening the season on a Thursday night as they've done so six of the last seven seasons. After last year's early season slumber, the Green Wave will be looking to start fast in 2019. FIU has dropped 12 of its last 14 season openers, including three straight. The big key here will be Tulane's rushing offense, which averaged 219 YPG last year and will going against an FIU defense that allowed 192 YPG on the ground. 10* Tulane |
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08-24-19 | Arizona v. Hawaii +11 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 124 h 12 m | Show |
8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): You may recall that we opened last season w/ a play on Hawaii and they richly rewarded us w/ a 43-34 outright upset of Colorado State as two-touchdown underdogs. It may not be that easy this time around, but the Warriors getting double digits out on the island is simply too good to pass up (last year's opener was on the road). One of the many rationales cited for playing Hawaii in LY's season opener was that the opponent (CSU) matched the Warriors' inexperience and was caught laying far too many points, given the situation. Well, this year Hawaii has twice as many returning starters (18) as they did a year ago. Take the points. Arizona was very close to making a bowl game last year, but blew a 19-point 4Q lead to rival Arizona State in the regular season finale. That left them at 5-7 SU in HC Kevin Sumlin's first year in Tucson. Sumlin should be cut some slack at QB Khalil Tate was injured most of the year and the team just wasn't the same w/o him and his dual threat ability. I would expect the Wildcats to be better this season, but laying double digits on the road to a team that won a bowl game last year, in the opener no less, seems to be a case of "putting the cart before the horse." No one saw Hawaii starting last year at 6-1, probably not even HC Nick Rolovich. But the "Run and Shoot" (offense) is back in Honolulu and the Warriors scored 40+ five times in the first six games despite having just three starters back from 2017. Now they have nine starters back on both sides of the ball. I don't see the Warriors matching LY's 8-win total or even likely winning this game outright, but they are certainly capable of putting a lot of points on the board, so them in the underdog role is attractive here. Hawaii is on an 8-2 ATS run vs. the Pac 12 while Arizona has failed to cover 16 of its previous 21 road games. Take the points. 8* Hawaii |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams +3 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 7 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (6:30 ET): I view these teams as pretty much even. One can only assume that the early line movement we saw on the Patriots was a byproduct of their vaunted reputation. The Rams, by comparison, are "new kids on the block" in this situation. For what it's worth, however, the Rams have produced a better point differential than the Patriots each of the last two seasons. Neither team had been an underdog all season before the respective Conference Championship Games when the Rams upset the Saints and the Pats did the same to the Chiefs. I only played one of those two games and it was against New England. That doesn't necessarily have a direct correlation to how I'm playing the Super Bowl, but it bears mentioning. I will be taking the points come Super Sunday w/ the Rams. Obviously, a great deal of attention has been paid to just how the Rams got here. They were an obvious beneficiary of a terrible blown call (should have been pass interference) vs. the Saints. But let's not use that singular play to discredit an entire body of work. They did end up outgaining the Saints 378-290 for the game and outscored 26-10 after the 1st quarter. The win over Dallas in the Divisional Round also was not as close as the final score indicates. The Rams led that game virtually the entire way (by as many as 16) and outgained the Cowboys 459-308. Not only does LA have a better point differential than New England, they have a better yardage differential - both on a per game and per play basis. Remember what I wrote about two weeks ago regarding the Patriots taking their act out on the road. Their offensive numbers go way down outside of Foxboro. Now obviously things didn't play out the way I had hoped vs. KC, but the Rams also have a better defense than the Chiefs. New England still has a losing record (4-5 SU) away from home. There is an irony here in that the Patriots' Super Bowl run under Belichick & Brady began w/ an upset of the Rams back in 2002. But remember that they have lost three Super Bowls, including last year (Philly special) and should have probably lost the last two. I think experience and reputation is somewhat overrated in this spot and will go w/ what I believe is the better team getting points. 10* LA Rams |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -135 | 74 h 57 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): At long last, the Chiefs are finally back in an AFC Championship Game. It's their first appearance in one since 1993. Though the winner of this annual game gets the Lamar Hunt Trophy, named for the franchise's founder and long-time owner, this will be the first time EVER that Arrowhead Stadium has actually hosted an AFC Championship! The Chiefs had gone just 1-10 SU in playoff games since that '93 AFC Champ Game appearance (lost to Buffalo) and were a heinous 4-16 SU, 3-17 ATS in the playoffs since winning Super Bowl IV. But that was before they exorcised a lot of demons last week w/ a completely dominant performance here at home vs. what was a red-hot Colts team. I said last week that "this year would be different (for KC)" and I still feel that way now. Compared to the Chiefs, the Patriots' playoff resume is obviously a lot more impressive. They've won 10 straight division (AFC East) titles and five Super Bowls. This will be their 8th straight AFC Championship Game appearance, which is incredible when you think about it, and they're going for an 11th all-time Super Bowl appearance (their 10 prev appearances is the NFL record). They've gone 4-3 SU the L7 years in the AFC Champ Game, winning it each of the last two years. No team has won the AFC three straight years since the Bills of the mid-90's. The only other team to do it was the Dolphins in the early 70's. So enough w/ the history lesson, let's get down to the game. These teams did meet in the regular season w/ New England prevailing in a wild 43-40 game. But that was in Foxboro where the Patriots went undefeated this year (only team in the league to go unbeaten at home). Last week in Foxboro, everything that could go right for the Pats did as they routed the Chargers 41-28 (wasn't even that close). But this game is in Arrowhead and that presents a problem for Brady, Belichick and co. Kansas City's somewhat maligned defense is A LOT better at home, giving up just 17.4 PPG here. New England's offense, which averages 33.8 PPG at home, averages just 21.6 PPG on the road. That's a sizable dropoff, especially when having to compete w/ Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, which averages 35.1 PPG. Kansas City, clearly, is the better offensive team in this matchup. New England has lost road games this year to Detroit, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Miami. I think homefield and revenge play a big factor here and Kansas City goes on to the Super Bowl. Lay the points! 10* Kansas City |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 56.5 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 56 m | Show |
10* Under Patriots/Chiefs (6:40 ET): Kansas City has some distinct advantages getting this game at home. First off, they don't have to play on Foxboro. New England won all nine of its home games this year and did so while averaging 33.8 PPG. On the road, the Pats' scoring average drops to 21.6 PPG. Three of their five non-division road games produced 10-point efforts (losses to Detroit, Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Kansas City's defense has been maligned much of this year, but they actually perform quite well at home where they give up only 17.4 PPG. With the dropoff in scoring New England sees on the road and the increase in defensive prowess from the Chiefs, the Under is an easy call for me this week. Plus, Kansas City actually averages fewer points per game at home than on the road! (Update: it also looks like they're getting Eric Berry this week!). Last week of course, the Over in the Patriots' game was my *10* Total of the Year. But that was in Foxboro. Everything that could go right for them in the first half did. They took advantage of a terrible Chargers' defensive gameplan and scored 35 points by halftime. The majority of points they gave up came in "garbage time" w/ the result of the game in little to no doubt. The Chargers gained more than two-thirds of their total yardage in the final quarter and a half when the Patriots were already ahead 38-7. Though often labeled as a "bend but don't break" type outfit (even by me!), we probably should give Belichick's defense more credit. There are multiple instances of games like last week's artificially inflating the number of yards they allow. This unit finished tied for 6th in the league in scoring during the regular season, giving up just 20.3 PPG. Kansas City's defense was able to wrest some of the headlines away from its record-setting offense w/ a truly dominant performance last week against the Colts. Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis offense had been on a real roll going into that game, but the Chiefs limited them to basically nothing in the first half. The Colts' lone TD came w/ just over five minutes remaining in the game (scored on a blocked punt in 1st half). They went three-and-out on three of the first four possessions and had just 12 total yds at the end of the first quarter. I should conclude by talking about the weather for this game as it is expected to be downright frigid. Sometimes that's "much ado about nothing," but this O/U line is high. Given the final score of the regular season meeting between the two (43-40 Pats), that's understandable, but I expect a much different results at Arrowhead where games average "only" 49.6 PPG. 10* Under Patriots/Chiefs |
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01-13-19 | Chargers +4 v. Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -103 | 117 h 32 m | Show |
8* LA Chargers (1:05 ET): At some point before kickoff, you are likely to hear that Philip Rivers has never beaten Tom Brady. The lifetime record is 0-7 SU and the Chargers have covered the spread in only one of the games, which happened to be the 2007 AFC Championship when the Patriots were undefeated and Rivers was playing on a torn ACL. (Rivers referenced that game in his post-game interview last week). For the record, Rivers has beaten the Patriots once (in 2008), but that was the year Matt Cassel had to fill in for an injured Brady. It also should be noted that the majority of the head-to-head matchups between Rivers and Brady have been close games. This might be Rivers best shot ever at beating Brady. I'm taking the points. At first glance, the timing and circumstance of this matchup do not seem most ideal from the Chargers' perspective. It's the second straight week where kickoff will be at 10 AM PST and the Patriots are off a bye. Nevertheless, there is a lot to like about this Chargers team. The defense is much better than in years' past. They held the Ravens to just three points and less than 100 total yds (including a negative in net passing!) through three quarters in the Wild Card game. Obviously, it will not be that easy here against Brady & the Patriots. But fortunately for the Chargers, their offense should also be a lot better this week. They average more yards per play this year than every team besides the Chiefs and Rams. Also, they won't have to face a Ravens' defense that is #1 in the league. The Patriots, like the Chargers, rank in the top 10 in the league in scoring defense. But there's a bit of a gap when it comes to the number of yards allowed. The Chargers are #9 in yards allowed while the Patriots rank 21st. New England was the only team in the league not to lose at home during the regular season, but the Chargers were arguably the league's toughest road team as they are now 8-1 SU and that one loss wasn't a true road trip as it came in LA against the Rams. I'm not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here. The Chargers are also 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season, also winning all five of those games outright. In terms of points allowed vs. scored and yards allowed vs. gained, these teams are relatively even on a per game basis. But the Chargers are significantly better on a per play basis. 8* LA Chargers |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots OVER 45 | Top | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 117 h 31 m | Show |
10* Over Chargers/Patriots (1:05 ET): Points were not plentiful on Wild Card Weekend and that includes the Chargers' 23-17 win over the Ravens. From the Chargers' perspective, that game probably shouldn't have ended up so close as they were gifted a couple early turnovers and had a couple of long returns from the special teams. Yet three different times they started on the Baltimore side of the field and could only manage field goals. Their defense largely dominated Lamar Jackson early, using a creative scheme, but let the Ravens back in late w/ a couple of long 4Q TD drives. I have every reason to believe we're going to get a much higher scoring game this weekend and the Over on Chargers-Patriots is my top Playoff Total of the Year! It's a much different QB and offense that Los Angeles will have to defend this week as they face Tom Brady and a Patriots team that averages 32.9 PPG at home. Last week, partly due to being short on linebackers, the Chargers went w/ 7 DB's on all but one snap. This clearly confused Lamar Jackson, who really never got going running the ball, and the Chargers' D-line dominated the game. Such an approach probably won't be used against Brady, nor would it be successful. For starters, New England has had an extra week to prepare. Secondly, this is not the run heavy offense that Baltimore employs. That's not to say the Chargers' defense won't find success in this game. It's just that it will have to come in a different way. Plus, like I said earlier, the Pats are averaging 32.9 PPG here in Foxboro. I played the Over in New England's final regular season game. It ended up coming up just short due to their opponents (Jets) red zone inefficiencies. Twice the Jets had the ball insider the Patriots' 10-yard line and turned it over on downs. That was the difference in the 38-3 final staying Under the 46.5-point total. The Chargers, despite last week's performance, are far less likely to bog down in the red zone. They average an impressive 6.4 yards per play, a number topped only by the offenses of the Chiefs and Rams. New England's defense may be 7th in scoring (20.3 PPG allowed), but that's a little misleading in the sense that they also rank 21st in yards per game (359.1), so it's a real "bend but don't break" unit. Both offenses are in the top six in the league in scoring here and this total is too low. 10* Over Chargers/Patriots |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 2 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (4:35 ET): Incredibly, underdogs have now cashed in 14 of the last 15 NFL playoff games. That included a 4-0 ATS sweep last weekend. Another trend Chiefs' fans won't want to hear is that their team is an absolutely woeful 4-16 SU, 3-17 ATS in the postseason since winning Super Bowl IV! That includes just ONE win since '93 (when Joe Montana was the QB!) and that sole victory came in 2016 against a 9-7 Texans team that was quarterbacked by the immortal duo of Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden! Since '93, there have been an incredible NINE "one and done's" by the Chiefs in the playoffs, four of those coming when they were at home and off the bye in this very Divisional Round. But never fear KC, I'm hear to tell you that things are going to be "all right" this year. Lay the points! Since '03, there's been only one time that the Chiefs lost at home in the Divisional Round. That was two years ago to the Steelers. This team is much better than any Chiefs team that has preceded it. Let's start w/ QB Patrick Mahomes and that record-setting offense, which led the league in both yardage and scoring. In Mahomes, HC Andy Reid finally has a QB capable of carrying his team to a SuperBowl. The problem for the Chiefs' in recent playoff appearances has been a lack of scoring. In the L11 playoff games, they've topped 21 pts just three times (including the 30-0 win over the Texans). That certainly should not be a problem here w/ an offense that comes in averaging 35.3 PPG. The Chiefs scored at least 26 pts in every regular season game. I think it's fair to say that no one expected Indianapolis to still be playing at this point of the season. Especially when they were 1-5 SU. But over the last three months, Frank Reich's team has been as good as anybody, going 10-1 SU the L11 games. They used a fast start (touchdowns on first two drives) to eliminate Houston last weekend, winning 21-7. But the Chiefs are a whole lot better than the Texans and anybody else the Colts have faced this year. The only playoff team that Indy beat this year besides Houston was Dallas and that game was at home. I just cannot see any way that KC loses this game as they have to be feeling "this is our year" after leading the AFC in point differential (+144) by a wide margin in the regular season. 10* Kansas City |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6.5 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 202 h 18 m | Show |
10* Clemson (8:00 ET): This is the 4th year in a row that Alabama and Clemson are meeting in the College Football Playoff and third time in those four years to determine the National Champion. The schools split the two prior Championship Games w/ Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 and then Clemson returning the favor 35-31 one year later. The Tigers covered the spread (as underdogs) both times before the Crimson Tide largely dominated LY's CFP semifinal matchup, winning 24-6 as 3.5-pt chalk. But the starting QB for each team will be different this time around with Tua starting for Alabama and Trevor Lawrence starting for Clemson. To me, Clemson has proven itself to be Alabama's equal over the past several seasons and should be priced as such. I'm taking the points. Clemson had an even easier time than I anticipated w/ Notre Dame in the semifinals, rolling to a 30-3 win. I felt they deserved to be DD favorites in the game, but it was clear that ND didn't even belong on the same field. They outgained the Fighting Irish 538-248 and consider it was a 23-3 game at halftime, so the final score easily could have been even more lopsided. Clemson ended the game by kneeling inside the red zone and earlier fumbled at the ND 12-yard line. Lawrence completed 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards and three touchdowns as the offense has clearly become more dynamic w/ him as the starter. He left his 1st start (vs. Syracuse) due to injury, but has since played every game. Clemson has won those games by 60, 34, 49, 61, 20, 29, 21, 31 & 27 pts! My goodness! That's an average margin of victory of 36.8 PPG w/ no final score closer than 20 points. And this team is an underdog? It's a role they are rarely in Perhaps most shocking of all from the Notre Dame game is that the defense didn't even skip a beat despite playing w/o All-American Dexter Lawrence. I know everyone is going to want to talk Tua and the Bama offense, which has earned the right to be called the best ever of the Saban era in Tuscaloosa. But Clemson will be the best defense they have seen all year and is the only defense better than their own. Over the last four seasons, Clemson has lost only four times, three of those coming by five points or less. I know that Alabama is responsible for two of those four losses, including the one that was by more than five points, but these teams are basically equals coming into this game. 10* Clemson |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 59 | Top | 16-44 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Clemson/Alabama (8:00 ET): This is the 4th time in 4 years that these schools are facing off in the College Football Playoff. It will be the third time they're playing to determine the National Championship. Alabama won the first go-around, 45-40 in 2016, a game which featured a 40-point fourth quarter. A year later, Deshaun Watson & Clemson returned the favor, winning 35-31 on a last second TD. Last year, they met in the semifinal round and Bama won handily, 24-6. There is no doubt that Clemson is a better team this year w/ Trevor Lawrence at QB. Alabama also has a different QB than last year as Tua Tagovailoa, who remember didn't come in until LY's Champ Game vs. Georgia. But despite the new QBs, don't expect scoring to be on the level of the 2016 or even 2017 games. Take the Under here. I was on the Over in both of those previous Bama-Clemson National Championship Games. The offenses now, particularly Alabama's (best ever under Saban?), are better. I was also on the Over in LY's Bama-Georgia Champ Game, which ended up being a lucky winner (OT), but I argued that the respective offenses were being undervalued coming into that game. This year, I think it's the defenses that are being undervalued. Clemson is #2 in the country in scoring defense (13.7 PPG allowed) and #3 in efficiency. Alabama is #4 in scoring (14.8 PPG allowed) and #1 in efficiency. So let's not make the mistake of forgetting about those two units, OK? Despite not having Dexter Lawrence, the Clemson defense gave up next to nothing to Notre Dame in the semifinal matchup. I had the Under in that game as the Tigers rolled to a 30-3 victory, giving up just 248 total yds of offense. Now, it will obviously not be that easy here. But aside from that perplexing performance vs. South Carolina, this Clemson defense has not allowed more than 16 points since September. Not to be outdone, Alabama just held the nation's top offense (Oklahoma) well under its season average in PPG. The 34 pts allowed in the semfinal actually marked a season high for the Crimson Tide, but given the opponent that's actually an admirable number. It was also just the third time all year they allowed more than 23 points. Eight times, they allowed 17 pts or less. I expect this game to be much lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Clemson/Alabama |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears -6 | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (4:40 ET): I played the Bears in the very 1st game of the NFL season, the Hall Of Fame Game in August. In my analysis for that matchup, I said "I view the Bears as a potential darkhorse in the NFC North this season" and that you shouldn't be surprised if they end up making the playoffs. Well, that was one heck of a premonition and it turns out the team was even better than I thought they would be, rolling to the NFC North crown w/ a 12-4 SU record. I'm still not sure I'm sold on second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky, but Matt Nagy was a homerun hire as the head coach and the defense is one of the best in the league. Something else to keep in mind is that I fashioned Chicago as a potential darkhorse BEFORE they acquired Khalil Mack, which happened right before the start of the reg season and obviously made the stop unit even more formidable. Coming off its Super Bowl run last year, I think most were anticipating somewhat of a modest "step back" for the Eagles in 2018. Virtually everything went right for them a season ago, save for the Carson Wentz injury, but even then Nick Foles came in and played the best football of his career. Fast forward to one year later and Foles is again the starter heading into the postseason as Wentz is hurt again. Though Foles did win the Super Bowl LY, I don't think this is the scenario anyone in Philly wanted coming into the year. Quite frankly, the Eagles are pretty lucky to have even made the playoffs as they looked pretty much "left for dead" following a second loss to Dallas in Week 14. But they rattled off three straight victories w/ Foles starting at QB and that was enough to make it in a weak NFC. I realize that Philly fans have convinced themselves that they're better w/ Foles at QB than w/ Wentz, but at the end of the day this Eagles team is simply not as good as LY nor are they as good as the Bears. Recall that last season, the Eagles entered the playoffs as the #1 seed in the NFC and thus had homefield advantage. Now, they're the 6-seed and on the road. At this time last year, people were writing them off w/ Foles as the starter. Now they seem to be getting too much credit. Chicago is the much better team defensively in this matchup and the gap on offense isn't particularly great. Even last season, this Eagles' defense struggled on the road. The Bears are 7-1 SU at home this year and covered 12 of their 16 regular season games overall. They also led the league in takeaways. 10* Chicago |
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01-05-19 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 0 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:15 ET): Reports of the Seahawks' demise this year turned out to be greatly exaggerated as here we are in January and another Russell Wilson-led team is in the playoffs. Make no mistake about it, this clearly is a Wilson-led outfit. Part of the reason, many (myself included) were so skeptical of Seattle coming into the season was that the famed "Legion of Boom" (secondary) had been disassembled and then to make matters even worse, the one holdover (Earl Thomas) got injured early in the year. The team started 0-2, but then went onto win 10 of its last 14 games, a streak which began in Week 3 w/ a win over ... the Cowboys. Two of their four losses were to the Rams (by a total of 7 pts) and another was to a 12-4 Chargers team. Dallas is another somewhat surprising playoff entrant. America's Team also got off to a slow start as they were just 3-5 at the midway point of the regular season. But in their case, it's easy to see what led to the turnaround, that being the acquisition of WR Amari Cooper from Oakland. Coming into the year, it was thought the Cowboys had the worst receiving corps in the league. But Cooper quickly changed that, giving QB Dak Prescott a viable weapon on the outside. Ezekiel Elliott also led the league in rushing yards. Credit should also be given to a Cowboys defense, which is legit one of the best in the league as it ranks seventh in yards and sixth in points allowed. Another key factor is that Dallas went a league-best 8-2 SU in close games (7 pts or less). Over the 2nd half of the season, they were 7-1 SU and every win was by 8 pts or fewer. While Elliott may have the individual lead in rushing yardage, no TEAM ran for more yards this year than Seattle. The Seahawks' offense ran for 160 YPG during the regular season, nearly 38 more than Dallas did. Both of these teams finished w/ 10-6 SU records, but Seattle had a +81 point differential while Dallas was only +15. The regular season meeting was in Seattle, but a change in homefield isn't enough to flip the result in my view. This will be the 4th meeting between the two teams since 2015. In the previous three, Dallas has failed to score more than 13 points and they've lost them all, one at home just last year. The Cowboys have never won a playoff game under HC Jason Garrett (0-2) and Seattle has covered five straight times as an underdog, winning three of those games outright. I also happen to trust Wilson more than Prescott in this situation. The better team is getting points. 8* Seattle |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
10* Houston (4:35 ET): The AFC South rivals have never met before in the postseason, but one thing they do have in common is that each rallied back from a poor start to the regular season. Houston won the division despite starting 0-3 while Indianapolis was pretty much left for dead at 1-5 SU. The Texans have won 11 of their last 13 games and the Colts have won 9 of 10, so we've got two red hot teams here. Being that they are division rivals, they met twice in the regular season. Each was victorious on the other's field w/ Houston's 37-34 OT win in Indy actually being its first win of the season and the Colts' 24-21 win in Week 14 being one of the two times the Texans have lost since then. The Colts have had the edge historically over the Texans, including a 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS mark the L13 meetings. But I just don't see how Houston isn't getting more credit for being the home team here. I'll take the points. Let's look back at the two regular season meetings, shall we? The first meeting in Indy actually saw the Texans race out to an 18-point lead early in the 2nd half before letting the Colts back in. The Colts tied the game w/ a TD + 2-pt conversion in the final minute of regulation, capping off an 85-yard drive. Andrew Luck actually wound up throwing the ball 62 times for a career-high 464 yards as he was forced to play "catch up." That was the most points given up by the Texans' defense all season. This is a group that allows only 19.7 PPG for the season, including 17.0 at home. The second meeting in Houston saw the Colts largely control from start to finish. They again put up over 430+ yards against JJ Watt and company, but I think the third time will be the charm for this Texans' defense. I just don't see the road team winning on the field for a third straight time in a division rivalry. In their 9-1 run to end the regular season, the Colts were pretty fortunate to play a lot of bad teams and remember they were shutout (at Jacksonville) in their only loss. The last two weeks saw them have to rally back from a double digit deficit to beat the 5-11 Giants at home, then they were the beneficiaries of getting to face Tennessee having to start Blaine Gabbert at QB in a "play-in game." Houston is the better team and at home, thus they should be priced accordingly. 10* Houston |
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01-01-19 | Texas v. Georgia UNDER 59 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Texas/Georgia (8:45 ET): Something will have to give here. Georgia has gone 6-1-1 ATS its last eight times as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. But Texas' HC Tom Herman has a ridiculous mark as an underdog in his career, going 12-3 ATS w/ 10 outright upsets. My own personal numbers indicate that UGA absolutely deserves to be favored in this price range. But there may be an issue of motivation w/ them coming up short against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Therefore, with two defensive minded teams, I'm on the Under in this year's Sugar Bowl. Georgia is a top five team in defensive efficiency and allows just 18.5 PPG (top 15 in the country). They allow just 311.2 YPG. After the gap between the winners and losers in Saturday's CFP semifinals became readily apparent, I think it should be obvious to all that the Dawgs are pretty clearly one of the four best teams in America (maybe 3rd?). While there last three games all went Over the total, two of those were against overmatched opponents where the offense was able to score at will. That won't be the case here vs. Texas. The other was the SEC Champ Game vs. an Alabama team that has the best offense of the Saban era. Playing indoors (Cowboys Stadium), Texas was able to hold the top scoring offense in the country (Oklahoma) to "just" 39 points. That's no small feat. You may recall I had the Under in the game, which cashed pretty easily. Texas' last three games all stayed Under. Despite routinely facing some of the top offenses in the country, the Longhorns managed to allow just 26.2 PPG during the regular season. Georgia, while potentially explosive offensively, is not as explosive as some of the Big 12 teams Texas is used to facing. The Under is 4-1 in Texas' last five bowl games and 31-11 their L42 games vs. teams w/ a winning record. 10* Under Texas/Georgia |
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01-01-19 | Washington +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
8* Washington (5:00 ET): Ohio State is a very popular side in this year's edition of the Rose Bowl, not only based on name recognition, but also due to the fact that this is Urban Meyer's final game on the sidelines. Conventional wisdom says the Buckeyes "will" send Meyer out a winner, but let's not forget that Georgia Tech (admittedly not as strong a team as OSU) failed to do the same for Paul Johnson earlier this week. Washington is a really strong defensive team and it's not like Ohio State didn't underachieve this year (despite losing only one game). I'll take the points here. The Huskies give up only 15.5 PPG. Like Ohio State, they came into 2018 w/ CFP aspirations, only to fall short. But they still won the Pac 12 Championship, winning at Washington State in the regular season finale and then holding Utah to only three points in the Conference Title Game. Oregon was the only team this year to score more than 24 pts on the Huskies. Granted, Ohio State will be the best offense they have faced this year. But the Huskies' three losses this year have been by a combined 10 points. They have not been blown out and I don't expect them to be here. For those pointing to the Michigan game as a sign Ohio State may put up a ton of points here, note that Washington plays a different style of defense. The Buckeyes had three wins by five points or less in the regular season and two of those were against Maryland and Nebraska, non-bowl teams. Defensively, this team had issues all season, giving up at least 26 points in all but five games. The Washington offense was far from consistent this year, but they have a senior QB in Jake Browning that will want to go out a winner just as much as Meyer. Browning and the seniors have not won a bowl game since the 2015 Heart of Dallas Bowl against Southern Miss. They are a great value as a contrarian dog here. 8* Washington  |
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01-01-19 | LSU v. Central Florida UNDER 58 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under LSU/Central Florida (1:00 ET): This is the Fiesta Bowl w/ 9-3 LSU of the SEC taking on a 12-0 Central Florida team that just completed its second unbeaten regular season in as many years. It's always fun to see how the so-called "Group of Five" teams (best team from CFB's five smallest conferences) do against the big boys in these New Year's Six Bowl Games. Quite frankly, they've more than held their own, going not only 4-1 ATS, but also pulling four outright upsets. That includes an upset by UCF (over Auburn) in LY's Peach Bowl. Unfortunately for this year's Golden Knights, they're going to have to make a go of it this time w/o QB McKenzie Milton, who suffered a season-ending injury in the regular season finale. Ultimately, I believe that injury will prevent UCF from winning here. It also should result in a much lower-scoring game than anticipated. Now, I know what UCF fans are probably saying. "Without Milton, we just scored 56 points in the AAC Championship Game." This is true. But that was against a porous Memphis defense that allows over 425 YPG (gave up 37 in the bowl to Wake Forest). Here, the Knights must contend w/ a LSU defense that is top 10 nationally in efficiency. The Tigers allow only 20.9 PPG and that number would be even lower were it not for the insane regular season finale that they played against Texas A&M and wound up going SEVEN overtimes and a 74-72 final. In nine wins this year, LSU never gave up more than 21 points. They allowed 17 or fewer in seven games. They will easily be the best defense that UCF has seen all season. Speaking of defense, UCF has a pretty good one as well. At the risk of sounding like a broken record (too late?), the Knights competition was nowhere close to what LSU faced in the rugged SEC, but they still only allowed 21.2 PPG and the American does have some really good offensive teams. With Milton out, defense may be how UCF hangs around in this one. Eight of UCF's 12 games have stayed Under this year w/ the AAC Champ Game snapping a string of Unders. This number has been bet up and I now find that the value is on the Under. 8* Under LSU/Central Florida  |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State +3 v. Oregon | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 168 h 22 m | Show |
10* Michigan State (3:00 ET): My favorite side of the Bowls is Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl as I think the wrong team is favored here. I'll concede that Sparty's offense isn't always pretty, but I trust their defense and coaching staff to get the job done here against an overrated Oregon team. They may have underperformed in the regular season, but took on a much tougher schedule than did the Ducks. In their past six bowl games, MSU is 5-1 SU and ATS, the only loss coming to Alabama in a CFP semifinal matchup. Mark Dantonio has been involved in seven bowl games where the spread has been less than a touchdown and his teams are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games, including 5-0 ATS as a dog w/ four outright upsets. They are the better team here. Oregon has to be relieved that QB Justin Herbert will be returning to school next season. It was thought he would be the 1st QB chosen in the NFL Draft had he chosen to declare. But as good as Herbert was, the Ducks kind of faltered down the stretch, going just 3-3 SU the L6 games w/ two of those wins coming at the expense of the Pac 12's two last place teams, UCLA and Oregon State. They were 0-3 SU outside of Eugene, losing by double digits to Wazzu and Arizona. They also allowed 32 points to a Utah team that was w/o its starting QB AND RB. The Ducks did beat a couple of good defenses this year in Cal and Washington, but Michigan State will be the best they've gone up against in 2018. Michigan State allows only 4.62 yards per play, which is 12th best in the country. They allow just 81 YPG (#1) on the ground and 2.7 yards per carry. This is a defense that held Ohio State's vaunted offense in relative check. Other than the Buckeyes, no Spartans opponent scored more than 13 points against them the L5 games. CB Justin Layne won't play here (will instead prepare for the NFL Draft), but w/ Dantonio's coaching, I think this unit will be fine. Three of MSU's four losses this year were to Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, all of whom I rate as top 10 teams. As alluded to earlier, the offense does have its issues, but a lot that had to do w/ missing RB L.J. Scott for much of the year. Scott (who is NFL bound) will play here and that makes Sparty's offense a lot more effective. Oregon has lost three straight bowl games and I see Michigan State keeping Herbert and their offense in check. 10* Michigan State |
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12-31-18 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Stanford | Top | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (2:00 ET): I think Pitt is a live dog here in the Sun Bowl. Though the regular season did not end well (B2B losses incl ACC Champ Game), Pat Narduzzi's team was improved this year after a disappointing 5-7 campaign in 2017. They won the ACC Coastal Division, going 6-2 in league play. Four of their losses were to top 10 teams - Penn State, UCF, Notre Dame and Clemson - three of those finished the regular season unbeaten! So even though the ACC was "down" this year (outside of Clemson), the Panthers won't be intimidated here by a middling Pac 12 squad as their non-conference schedule was quite the undertaking. I also imagine Pitt will be pretty motivated here as they've never won a bowl game under HC Narduzzi (last bowl win was 2013). Take the points. Relative to expectations, Stanford has been disappointing each of last two years. Were they to lose here, that would make it B2B 5-loss seasons. From 2010-16, they won 10+ games six times. Nothing was more emblematic of said disappointment this year than RB Bryce Love, who was hampered by both his own injuries and injuries to his offensive line. Love won't even play here in the Sun Bowl, citing the need to prepare for the NFL Draft. As disappointing as Love's numbers were this year (739 yds, 6 TDs), he'll certainly be missed Monday. In their seven Pac 12 games that weren't against UCLA and Oregon State, the Cardinal were held to 23 pts or less five times. Even had Love opted to play here, Pitt may very well have had the better rushing attack anyway. For the first time in school history, the Panthers boast TWO 1,000+ yard rushers, Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall. For the year, the offense averages 5.6 yards per rush attempt and 230 YPG. (For comparison, Stanford averaged just 3.7 YPC and 108 YPG w/ Love). Yes, Pitt is in off B2B blowout losses, one to Miami and the other to Clemson in the ACC Champ Game. But I still point to the fact half of their losses this year came to teams that were unbeaten in the regular season. The drought w/o a bowl victory should have them as the more motivated side while this is just a disappointing end to a disappointing season for a Stanford team playing w/o its best player. 8* Pittsburgh |
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12-30-18 | Colts -3 v. Titans | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
8* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): This game will determine who gets the final playoff spot in the AFC. It could also be for first place in the AFC South if Houston were to somehow lose to Jacksonville earlier in the day (not likely). So the bottom line is the stakes could not be much higher for the final game of the NFL's regular season as the 9-6 Titans host the 9-6 Colts. You might be a bit surprised to see Indy favored on the road in this spot, but don't be as they've been the vastly superior team for the last two months, plus QB Andrew Luck has absolutely owned Tennessee in his pro career (10-0 SU against them!). The Titans are also dealing w/ uncertainty at QB as Marcus Mariota was injured last week and may not be able to play in the team's most important game of the season. Lay the points. Last season was a disaster for the Colts as they dipped to 4-12 SU and Andrew Luck didn't take a single snap. With Luck returning this year, the team was optimistic for a turnaround. But the season got off to an ugly 1-5 SU start and I have to admit that (like a lot of people), I essentially wrote this team off. But the Colts have put together a shocking run, winning 8 of their last 9 games, including a 38-10 beatdown of these Titans back in Week 11. Luck completed 23 of 29 passes in that blowout win for 297 yards. The Colts scored the game's first 24 pts and never looked back. Again, Luck has NEVER lost to Tennessee in his career. Tennessee made the playoffs last year and regardless of the result here will have put together three straight winning seasons. They've been the definition of "average" during that time, going 27-20 SU and outscoring their opponents by a total of four points. Speaking of point differential, a substantial gap exists between these two teams as the Colts are +73 this year compared to just +23 for the Titans. But the bigger deal is clearly the Mariota injury. He's reported as having a "stinger" which puts his long-term prognosis in some doubt. If the reports are true and Mariota can't go, then the Titans are left w/ Blaine Gabbert, who has NEVER played for a team w/ a winning record before this season. Compounding matters is that Tennessee is also beat up on the defensive side of the ball w/ Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo and Logan Ryan all out. The Colts are simply the better team here. 8* Indianapolis |
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12-30-18 | Browns v. Ravens -6 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 48 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): The Browns have been quite the exciting team since they made the correct move to dump HC Hue Jackson in the middle of the season. Led by rookie QB Baker Mayfield, the team is 5-1 SU in its last 6 six games, quintupling the number of wins the franchise had the previous two seasons combined. There is now a real sense of optimism in Cleveland for the first time in forever, though we'll have to see how the coaching situation plays out. It's also worth mentioning that none of the five teams Cleveland has beaten currently have winning records. Two of the five came against a Cincinnati team that is playing as poorly as anyone in the league right now. Wins over Carolina and Denver were basically "coinflip" type games. Baltimore is looking to win the AFC North here. To do so, all they need to do is win. While the Browns have made a leap from "laughingstock" to "respectable," the Ravens have gone from "mediocre" to "team no one wants to face in the playoffs." Last Saturday, they went out and turned in a very impressive performance, beating the previously red-hot Chargers 22-10 in LA. The Ravens' top-ranked defense snapped Philip Rivers' streak of 27 consecutive games w/ a TD pass and held the Chargers under 200 total yds, something that had happened only three other times in the Rivers era. The Chargers offense, which averages 6.6 yards per play (3rd highest in the league), never had a play longer than 17 yds the entire game and had just 10 pts on 12 drives. The lone LA touchdown came on a 17-yard drive after a fumble. The Ravens also have legit revenge here for a 12-9 loss suffered in Cleveland back in Week 5. That was a pretty even game that went to overtime and almost ended in a 9-9 tie. Both teams were also pretty different back then w/ Jackson still coaching the Browns and Lamar Jackson not yet starting at QB for the Ravens. Since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco, Baltimore has gone 5-1 SU w/ the only loss coming in OT at Kansas City. The offense has averaged a preposterous 218.8 yards rushing per game w/ Jackson as the starter. But the defense is still the bread and butter of this team as it ranks #1 in the league in both points and yards allowed. Look for them to keep Mayfield in check. With their season on the line, I look for the Ravens to win big here. 10* Baltimore |
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12-30-18 | Cowboys v. Giants OVER 41.5 | Top | 36-35 | Win | 100 | 96 h 24 m | Show |
8* Over Cowboys/Giants (1:00 ET): There's not a lot on the line in these 1 PM ET kickoffs Sunday, so I'm pretty much confined to looking at totals. In the case of this NFC East rivalry, the Over has cashed five times in a row, a stark contrast to the streak of seven straight Overs before that. Dallas has clinched the NFC East and knows it will be the #4 seed (in all likelihood hosting Seattle in the Wild Card Round) so it will probably choose not to play its starters very long, if at all. The Giants are having another playoff year and without one of their top two offensive weapons (Odell Beckham Jr). But they still have Saquon Barkley and this could very well be the last ever home start Eli Manning makes in a Giants uniform. I think he (Eli) in particularly will look to go out w/ a bang. With the uncertainly over how much Dallas starters will play, this total is low. But HC Jason Garrett has given no indication that he plans on resting his key players, even QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott or WR Amari Cooper. There is an argument that the team would not want to lose any momentum heading into the playoffs after winning six of their last seven games. Two weeks ago, they were shutout in Indianapolis, but last week bounced back w/ a 27-20 win over Tampa Bay. Elliott, in particular, has said he wants to play. I realize that the Cowboys' defense has played exceptionally well this season, but they've also given up at least 20 points each of the L3 weeks. Manning is going to want to put on a show here, in case it is his last home game as the starting QB of the Giants. Last week, the G-Men put up 27 points on the same Colts defense that shutout Dallas. I had them as big underdogs and they led outright most of the way before giving up the GW TD in the final minute. The Giants have now scored at least 27 pts in regulation in five of the last seven games, three of those coming w/o OBJ. The defense also allowed over 400 total yards last week. With nothing tangible to gain for either side, don't be surprised to see a more "wide open" game here, certainly more so than what we saw in the Week 2 meeting, which was a 20-13 Cowboys victory. 8* Over Cowboys/Giants |
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12-30-18 | Jets v. Patriots OVER 45 | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -102 | 96 h 24 m | Show |
8* Over Jets/Patriots (1:00 ET): New England has something to play for here, namely a 1st round bye in the playoffs. They've already clinched the AFC East for a 10th straight year, but an older team like this one would probably relish the opportunity to have next week off. Fortunately for the Patriots, they're at home this week and hosting the Jets. Just how important would a bye be to the Patriots? Well, they're the league's only unbeaten team at home (7-0) and they average an impressive 32.1 PPG in Foxboro. That number is well up from how much they average on the road (21.6 PPG) where they're only 3-5 SU. The last five meetings w/ the Jets have all resulted in Unders, but I feel New England drags this one Over by themselves if they have to. The Jets are perceived as a "tough out" for the Patriots, but they've only beaten them once since 2013. That was in Week 16 of the 2015 season, Todd Bowles first year as the HC here. Barring something unforeseen happening, this will be Bowles last game coaching the Jets. The team has lost 11+ games in each of the last three seasons and clearly needs new direction w/ Sam Darnold as the QB. Speaking of Darnold, he actually owns the league's highest QBR the L3 weeks. The Jets have gone Over in four straight games, averaging over 27 PPG. Last week, they lost a 44-38 shootout in overtime against Green Bay. I don't see the Jets simply "rolling over" and giving this game to the Patriots. They should have a decent offensive gameplan. The Under is 7-1 in the Patriots' last eight games, the one exception being that wild loss in Miami where the Dolphins lateraled their way to victory. One of the Under was against these Jets in a 27-13 victory. But I expect New England to top 30 in this one being that they are at home. Last week saw them finish w/ just 24 points against Buffalo, but that was also with a run-heavy approach in the second half simply designed to kill clock. Plus, say what you will about the Bills, but they actually have a very competent defense. The same cannot be said for the Jets, who give up almost 27 PPG and allowed 540 total yds to Aaron Rodgers last week. 8* Over Jets/Patriots |
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12-30-18 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 31-0 | Win | 100 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-30-18 | Falcons v. Bucs | Top | 34-32 | Loss | -125 | 96 h 23 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): A pair of disappointing seasons will be capped off Sunday in Tampa Bay where the Bucs host the Falcons. The season started so well for TB as they were 2-0 w/ QB Fitzpatrick setting records. But "Fitzmagic" quickly ran out of tricks and Jameis Winston doesn't seem like the guy to right this sinking ship either. HC Dirk Koetter may be coaching his final game this week. For Atlanta, their defense was decimated by injuries and the offense decimated by inefficiencies, particularly in the red zone. They're probably a better overall team compared to TB, but I don't think that means they're capable of winning on the road where their record this year is just 2-5 SU and ATS. I'll look for the home team to come through in this one as jobs are on the line. It's pretty shocking that the Bucs are only 5-10. As I said earlier, they were 2-0, but things quickly fell apart. Still though, they are outgaining opponents both on a per play and per game basis. They are actually third in the league in yards per game despite ranking 13th in scoring. Now the defense has largely been a disaster as it ranks 30th in scoring. But the team certainly deserved a better fate LW in Dallas when it outgained the Cowboys 382-232 (w/ 27-16 FD advantage), only to come up short on the scoreboard, 27-20. Not only did they give up a defensive TD in the game, but they were also stopped on downs inside the Dallas 10-yd line despite having it 2nd & 1 at the 2-yd line. It's been that kind of season for the Bucs, but that doesn't mean they can't win here. Being at home should have the Bucs as the more fired up side for this Wk 17 matchup. Both Winston and Koetter's jobs are likely on the line. Adding to the motivation is the fact the Bucs have lost to the Falcons four straight times, including a tough 34-29 setback in Atlanta back in Week 6. That's one of six losses the team has by eight points or less. The offense rolled up 500+ yards on the Falcons' D in that first meeting, but was -2 in TO's (like last week). As for the TB defense, it is MUCH better at home, giving up just 18.6 PPG as opposed to the 35.1 PPG it allows on the road. Atlanta has won each of the last two weeks, but has nothing to play for and could rest some offensive stars. 10* Tampa Bay |
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12-29-18 | Oklahoma v. Alabama OVER 76.5 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 125 h 23 m | Show |
10* Over Oklahoma/Alabama (8:00 ET): The Orange Bowl will play host to the second CFP semifinal of Saturday evening as #1 Alabama takes on #4 Oklahoma. We are dealing with two of the top offenses in the country here. In fact, they rank #1 and #2 in the country in scoring w/ OU leading the way at 49.5 PPG and Bama not far behind at 47.9. The Sooners are #1 in most offensive categories while the Crimson Tide are top five. However, and rightly so, all the focus going into this game will center around the health of the two starting QBs. Oklahoma's Kyler Murray is reportedly battling an unspecified illness while Alabama's Tua Tagovailao is still recovering from the ankle injury he suffered in the SEC Championship Game. In the end, both should be fine and play well. I expect this to be a completely wild game, full of scoring. Take the Over. If Alabama can score 35 against Georgia's defense w/ Tua not even playing a full game, then just imagine what they can do against Oklahoma' shaky stop unit. The Sooners already give up 38.5 PPG outside of Norman and allowed more than that in their last three games. Now they face not only the best offense they'll see all year, but probably the best Alabama offense of the Nick Saban era. Think about that for a minute. The Tide scored at least 45 pts in all but four games and that's after going through a SEC gauntlet that features numerous defenses that are substantially better than OU. It is not unrealistic to believe Bama can score every time they have the ball in this game. If for some reason Tua is not firing on all cylinders, the Tide have a proven "backup" in Jalen Hurts. With Bama likely to score at will in this game, Oklahoma will be left to play "catch up." Fortunately, Murray and company will be more than happy to oblige, even against the usual ferocious Bama defense. Oklahoma's offensive numbers are just ridiculous. The only opponent that was able to even remotely slow them down was Army, who played a brand of "keep away" that I'm not sure any other team in the country is capable of playing. In the face of very high weekly totals, Oklahoma still went 10-3 Over. (Alabama is 9-4). With the two top offenses in the country clashing here, I have zero hesitation about betting the Over, even with the high O/U line. 10* Over Oklahoma/Alabama |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 57 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Notre Dame/Clemson (4:00 ET): The big story for this College Football Playoff semifinal is that Clemson has lost DT Dexter Lawrence to a failed drug test. Right now, Notre Dame seems to be the one semifinalist floating under the radar. Both teams in the other game (Alabama-Oklahoma) are dealing with health issues at QB. The Fighting Irish don't seem to have any issues coming into this game and should be in a far greater position to compete compared to that now-infamous showing vs. Alabama in 2012, the last time they tried to compete for a national title. Both of these teams are really strong defensively w/ Clemson having a legit claim to being the top stop unit in the country (w/ Lawrence). I don't think Lawrence's absence will end up hurting the Tigers that much - or stop this game from staying Under. Notre Dame only gives up 17.2 points per game. The secondary has allowed just seven touchdown passes and has 12 interceptions. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is very talented, but remember he's a freshman and this will obviously be the biggest game of his career. Not only are the Fighting Irish adept at defending the pass, they also allow only 3.7 yards per carry on the ground. The Irish did not allow more than 27 points in any game this year and allowed 17 or less eight times. This is a team that was an underdog only once in the regular season, the opener vs. Michigan, and that game stayed Under. So did their final two regular season games. Clemson has the best defense in the country. Losing a player the caliber of Lawrence could be crippling for most defenses, but this one happens to have three other NFL prospects along its defensive line. The Tigers allow only 13.7 PPG, fewest in the country, and were #1 in the efficiency ratings as well. Notre Dame has not faced a defense this good all year, obviously, or one that's even close. The Tigers did have that poor showing vs. South Carolina, but allowed 200 or fewer yds in two of the last four regular season games. They allow only 2.4 yards per rush and fewer than 100 YPG over land. I don't see Clemson going "off" offensively here, so between that and their top ranked defense, Under is an easy call. 8* Under Notre Dame/Clemson |
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12-28-18 | Auburn v. Purdue UNDER 55.5 | Top | 63-14 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Auburn/Purdue (1:30 ET): One team is likely thrilled to be here in the Music City Bowl while the other is certainly likely to view the assignment as a massive disappointment. It shouldn't take a Rhodes Scholar to find out which is which. Auburn was a preseason top 10 team that lost five regular season games while Purdue is not only back in a bowl for just the second time since 2012 (played in the Foster Farms Bowl LY), but was also able to keep its HC (Jeff Brohm) from bolting for Louisville. Auburn had its own coaching drama and while Gus Mahlzan is staying put, there are many in the fanbase that probably aren't too happy about that. But before simply betting Purdue based on a motivational handicap, let's be aware that the Boilermakers are definitely the less talented side here. They needed to beat Indiana for the Old Oaken Bucket in the regular season finale just to get bowl eligible. Led by the QB-WR combo of David Blough & Rondale Moore, Purdue definitely had some impressive performances this year, most notably the 49-20 win over Ohio State. But they also turned in some head-scratchers, like a home loss to Eastern Michigan and 41-10 defeat at Minnesota. The Under was 4-1 in their road games during the regular season as not only did they score a fewer number of points per game, they also allowed a fewer number. The Under was also 4-1 in Auburn's road games, but in their case it was all about an offense that could only average 18.4 PPG. There will be much discussion about this Tigers' offense, which will have a new coordinator next season and a new QB. (Jarrett Stidham is leaving for the NFL after this game). But for the Music City Bowl, Mahlzan will be the playcaller. Stidham had a disappointing year w/ his numbers down across the board compared to last year. The Auburn run game was not particularly effective either, topping 130 yds just twice besides games vs. Liberty & Alabama State. Five times they were held to 103 yds or less on the ground. Mahlzan is 4-0-1 Under in bowl games as the HC here. 10* Under Auburn/Purdue |
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12-27-18 | Vanderbilt v. Baylor UNDER 56 | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Baylor/Vanderbilt (9:00 ET): I think we've got a situation here where those who have looked at this matchup (Texas Bowl) see a couple of teams whose games stayed Under with a high degree of regularity in the regular season, and think the "worm is due to turn" so to speak. I can't fault that line of thinking as - often times - everything does eventually regress back to the mean. However, in the case of this Baylor-Vandy matchup, I don't see a particularly high scoring game playing out. Both teams are happy to be here, especially Baylor after everything that program has been through and they get to stay in-state as well. Take the Under here. Vanderbilt's QB Kyle Shurmur (son of Giants' HC Pat) will more than likely become the school's all-time passing leader in this game as he needs only 118 yards to pass Jay Cutler for the honor. But Shurmur was only sixth in the SEC in passing yards per game during the regular season. When playing outside of Nashville this year, the Commodores averaged only 22.0 PPG. That number is down considerably from what they averaged at home. In the three road games vs. ranked opponents, they managed just 37 pts total. Now those games were against Notre Dame, Georgia and Kentucky, all of whom have much better defenses than Baylor. But I still think it's instructive as to how the Vandy offense is capable of faltering. Baylor being back in a bowl so soon is pretty shocking. The Bears won just one game LY, but give credit to HC Matt Rhule for engineering a tremendous turnaround. We usually associate offense with Baylor and while this team averaged a solid 28.3 PPG, that was actually their lowest scoring average since '09, or pre-RGIII. In each of the Bears' last four losses, they were held to 17 points or less. They're without leading receiver Jalen Hurd for this bowl game and without kicker Drew Galitz. Vanderbilt has a much stronger defense than what Baylor is used to seeing in the Big 12. Both of these offenses rank in the bottom 10 nationally in red zone efficiency and I look for that to be a big factor in this game staying Under the total. 10* Under Baylor/Vanderbilt |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin OVER 45.5 | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
8* Over Miami/Wisconsin (5:15 ET): There is quite a bit to unpack here for this year's New Era Pinstripe Bowl. First off, what makes this particular Bowl Game different is that it's played at Yankee Stadium, meaning cold temperatures are a factor. That has played into the narrative that Wisconsin will have an advantage as their opponent hails from the much warmer climate. But be aware that these teams met last year in the Orange Bowl, where you'd think Miami would have had the significant edge (a virtual home game!) and the Badgers won there, 34-24 as six-point favorites. Lastly, Miami announced yday that it will be going back to Malik Rosier as the starting QB, as opposed to N'Kosi Perry, who had started the final three regular season games. Wisconsin seems like the popular side here, but this Badgers team wasn't quite up to par this year. They entered 2018 as a National Title Contender and had a schedule that appeared tailor-made for an unbeaten run. Instead, they lost five games and didn't even win their division. In three of the five losses, they allowed 30+ points. Overall, this year's defense was simply not what we are used to seeing out of Madison, a theme for this game. But on offense, I look for the Badgers to have plenty of success running the ball in this game. Behind one of the top offensive lines in the nation, they'll feed RB Jonathan Taylor, who led all RB's in rushing yardage this season, averaging 166 per game. Miami is w/o its best run stopper - Gerald Harris -for this game. There will probably be an overreaction in the marketplace to Rosier starting in place of Perry for Miami. For our purposes, the move is great. The Under was 3-0 in Perry's three starts. Overall, Miami has gone Under in its last six games. But the Over was 5-1 in their first six games, all w/ Rosier under center, so don't fall victim to any recency bias. Wisconsin will also be w/o one of its top defenders, LB Ryan Connelly, here. These teams blew past the total in LY's Orange Bowl and are more than capable of doing it again here w/ an even lower number. I think the cold weather is overrated in handicapping this game as it shouldn't stop either offense from scoring. 8* Over Miami/Wisconsin |
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12-26-18 | TCU +1 v. California | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show |
10* TCU (9:00 ET): This is the Cheez-It Bowl (formerly the Arizona Bowl), which is being held at Chase Field in Phoenix, home of MLB's Diamondbacks. It has the lowest total of any bowl game this year (or in recent memory) as TCU takes on Cal. TCU had a very disappointing regular season (as is evident by a 3-8-1 ATS record). But they proved they belong here by winning their final two games, over Baylor and Oklahoma State, both in pretty convincing fashion. So the Horned Frogs definitely want to "be here" Wednesday night against a Cal team that's going bowling for the 1st time since 2015 (just 2nd since '11). That'll have the Bears motivated as well, but I question their offense as well as the lasting effect losing to rival Stanford (final reg season game) may have had. TCU's offense wasn't exactly pretty either. Playing in a league (Big XII) not known for defense, the Horned Frogs still averaged only 24.7 PPG and that number is obviously lower when taking out the non-conference games. But, as per usual, Gary Patterson's team can play some defense. They give up just 24.4 PPG and that's an impressive number after running the Big XII slate. Look at who some of TCU's losses were to (Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, WVU) and you'll gain a better appreciation for this team. They were in every game besides the one vs. Oklahoma. They outgained opponents on a yard per play/game basis and should be improved next year as well. My number indicate they should be about a field goal favorite here. Cal's "Big Game" vs. Stanford had to be moved to the end of the regular season this year due to wildfires that were ravaging the area at the time. For Cal, it was two additional weeks to think about ending an eight-year losing streak in the rivalry. They ended up losing to the Cardinal, 23-13, and that final score is somewhat misleading in the sense that the Bears scored their only TD w/ 10 seconds to go. Cal, statistically, has a better defense than TCU. But I have tremendous concerns about an offense that averages less than 200 yards passing and was held to 15 pts or fewer in five of its final seven regular season games. The Bears went just 4-5 SU against a mediocre Pac 12 and were 4-2 SU overall in one-score games. I like TCU here. 10* TCU |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 43 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
10* Over Broncos/Raiders (8:15 ET): Nothing will be on the line Monday night (X-mas Eve) except pride in the AFC West as these two longstanding rivals meet for the second time in 2018. Neither the Broncos nor Raiders made the playoffs LY and both are already out of contention for this season. For Oakland, they've been out of contention for some time as Jon Gruden's first year back at the helm has not gone well, to say the least. The Silver and Black are 3-11 SU and have become a total rebuilding project, although one now has to wonder exactly WHERE that rebuilding might take place. Tonight could be the final NFL game EVER in Oakland as the team's immediate future is in serious turmoil w/ the city suing the team over its decision to bolt for Las Vegas. Spirits could be high in the stadium Monday night and will have little to do w/ the holidays. Denver at least improved some this season. They, in fact, were even in serious playoff contention up until two weeks ago. But B2B losses to the 49ers and Browns (were favored in both games) have them at 6-8 SU. This is a team that last month beat the Chargers and Steelers in successive games. So it's no surprise that they're favored again this week, especially considering they beat the Raiders all the way back in Week 2, 20-19. That game saw the Broncos rally back from a 12-point deficit. They did not cover though as 5.5-pt chalk. If you're looking for a storyline from the Denver side going into this game - HC Vance Joseph's future is (and should be) very much in doubt. The Broncos stumbling each of the L2 wks can probably be tied to the fact they lost a key player on both sides of the ball - WR Emmanuel Sanders and CB Chris Harris, Jr. The defense has remained fine, but the offense has scored a grand total of just 30 pts. The Broncos' last six games have all stayed Under as have their L4 meetings w/ the Raiders. Oakland has the 4th lowest scoring offense in the league. But despite all that you've just read, I believe this MNF total is too low and we're going to see more of a shootout between two teams that have little (but pride) to play for. There have been only three Denver games this year w/ a total of 43 pts or less and the Over is 3-0 (Under is 11-0 in all other games!). The Raiders' defense gives up almost 30 PPG and the Over is 2-0 when the total is 43 pts or lower in their games this season. 10* Over Broncos/Raiders |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:20 ET): While the Seahawks' secondary appears beaten up at the absolute worst time, they can still lean on the fact they have QB Russell Wilson and are a ridiculous 16-2 SU at home in primetime games under HC Pete Carroll. This is a huge game for both sides as Kansas City is trying to maintain the top spot in the AFC (could be one-half game back of the Chargers by kickoff) and Seattle is trying to lock down a Wild Card spot over in the NFC. I've taken Seattle a couple of times already in primetime games this year, citing short lines, and now I can grab them as a dog! Take the points. The two previous times I've taken Seattle in primetime games this year were a Thursday nighter vs. Green Bay (pushed as 3-pt favorites) and a Monday nighter vs. Minnesota (covered easily in a 21-7 win). In my analysis for both games, I cited the cheap price on them at home. Well, now they're a home dog, which you simply do not see very often. They were once earlier this year and I took them in that spot as well, getting almost a full TD against the Rams. They covered in a game they led much of the way (but eventually lost 33-31). They are now a perfect 5-0 ATS in the Russell Wilson "era" (2012-) as a home dog, winning four of those games outright. The health of Seattle's secondary will probably be a major focus going into Sunday night and it should be. But, for what it's worth, Carroll believes two of the questionable players are going to see the field. Remember this is a group that still has been able to find its way despite the loss of Earl Thomas early in the year. To me, the bigger question is Kansas City's defense, which is one of the worst in the entire league. In their last road game, the Chiefs gave up 33 points to a horrible Raiders team. They are 31st in the league in yards allowed per game. The poor defense has certainly contributed to the team's 0-4-1 ATS record its L5 games. Seattle's offense is ninth in the league in scoring. 10* Seattle |
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12-23-18 | Jaguars +4 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Fair warning - we're going w/ some "ugly" teams in this week's 3-pack. But this being late in the year, oddsmakers are starting to make you pay a "premium" for teams in "must win" situations. Case in point, Miami. Somehow, someway, the Dolphins have managed to stay in playoff contention despite a horrible YTD point differential (-79) that is actually 4th WORST in all of the league. This trend goes back even further. Over the last three seasons, Miami has a 23-23 SU record, but has been outscored by a stunning 208 points during that time. This is no legit playoff contender and I don't think they should be laying this many points to anyone, even a down-on-its luck Jacksonville team. Last week, I played against the Dolphins as an underdog. It was a big play of Minnesota, my 10* Game of the Month in fact. The game was never really close as the Vikings jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead and wound up winning 41-17. It was quite emblematic of the Dolphins' season. While their seven wins have all been by eight points or less, six of their seven losses have been by double digits. Three of their last four wins have been by four points or less, one coming in overtime and another coming on the miracle play against the Patriots. Now they have to go w/o RB Frank Gore, their top offensive player. Gore averaged 4.6 yards per carry and his production will be tough to replace. This has been a disastrous season for Jacksonville, one that will in all likelihood lead to the franchise moving on from coach Doug Marrone and QB Blake Bortles. No team will have a bigger drop in wins from last season. But as bad as things have gotten, the Jags typically lose close. Like last week, when they gave the game away against Washington and lost 16-13. It was their fourth loss by four points or less since November 11th. They still have a defense that allows just 20.6 PPG. While out of it, I still rate Jacksonville slightly better than Miami. Note the Dolphins have been favored only three times all year and never by more than 3.5 points. 8* Jacksonville |
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12-23-18 | Giants +10.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): These teams were on opposite ends of shutouts last week. The G-Men were blanked, at home, by Tennessee. Indianapolis turned in perhaps its finest performance of the season w/ a 23-0 blanking of the Cowboys. Remember what I said about this 3-game report containing some "ugly" picks? Well, this is another one. As hot as the Colts have been (won 7 of 8), I'm unconvinced that they should be laying this many points against anyone. While they've been favored six times during the win streak, never have they been asked to lay more than a touchdown and in that instance it was against Buffalo. Again, we have an instance where oddsmakers are asking you to pay a premium on a team in a "must win" spot for playoff contention. I'll take the points. The G-Men couldn't score w/o Odell Beckham last week, but I think they'll find an easier time here against the Colts' defense. I say that knowing full well the Colts have allowed 6 pts or fewer in two of the last three games. They may no longer have Beckham, but they do have Saquon Barkley (1800 total yds) to lean on. Also, remember that two weeks ago the Giants scored 40 points w/o OBJ and that was against what is still a pretty good Redskins' defense. This is a Giants team that also beat Chicago three weeks ago. Three of the Colts last five victories have been by a field goal. Also, the Giants are 6-1 ATS on the road this season w/ three outright upsets. My raw numbers have this line closer to six points. That's a lot of value. This is similar to the other two games in this report where the team facing a "must win" is being overvalued. The Colts have a huge showdown w/ the Titans next week that could very well determine the last seed in the AFC playoffs. They'll be a better value in that matchup. 8* NY Giants |
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12-23-18 | Vikings v. Lions +7 | Top | 27-9 | Loss | -140 | 43 h 42 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): We look to hit the trifecta here w/ yet another team getting serious value. Detroit cashed for me last week, even in a loss to lowly Buffalo. I said the Bills shouldn't be favored and while they won, the price was too high. Don't be surprised to see a similar result transpire this week. The Vikings, in desperate need of a win here, are laying about a field goal more than they should. At 7-6-1, they currently occupy the final playoff spot in the NFC. But it's a precarious lead. As motivating as that situation may be, I don't see them winning by more than a touchdown here. Take the points. Minnesota was my *10* Game of the Month last week. But they were at home and facing a Miami team I have little to no regard for (see Jacksonville writeup!). You may ask why I'd have more regard for a 5-9 Lions team. Well, they're at home this week and getting roughly the same number Miami did LW in Minnesota. This despite a YTD point differential that's significantly better. A decimated Lions offense has had its trouble scoring in recent weeks, but be aware that they've lost by more than a TD only one time in the last five games and that was to a Rams team that scored late. The Vikings put up 41 last week, but that was after scoring a total of just 17 pts the two weeks prior. When it comes to winning big games, QB Kirk Cousins does not exactly have the finest resume. Minnesota has been favored twice on the road this year (1-1 ATS), but never by more than a field goal. Consider that they were asked to lay only three against the Jets, who are certainly a worse team that Detroit. This is a division game and the final home game for the Lions, so they should "show up." They have revenge for a poor showing in Minnesota back in Week 9 and aren't often a dog in this price range in their own stadium. 8* Detroit |
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys OVER 48 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Bucs/Cowboys (1:00 ET): Before the season started, Tampa Bay is a team whose games I projected to be among the highest scoring in the league this year. I saw plenty of potential with the offense - no matter who the QB was - while the defense looked pretty suspect. For the first half of the season, high scoring is precisely how Bucs games played out. The first five games, and seven of the first eight, went Over the total. It didn't matter if it was Jameis Winston or Fitzmagic at QB. But something has changed over the last month. The offense has kind of gone into the toilet and the L4 games have all stayed Under the total. But the defense remains pretty bad, particularly on the road. This week, they're facing an offense that can absolutely exploit them. Take the Over here. Now, when I say the Bucs are facing an offense that can exploit them, you wouldn't guess the Cowboys based on their performance LW. For the first time since '03, they were shutout as in 23-0 by the Colts. It was a shocking result for a Dallas team that came into that game riding a 5-game SU and ATS win streak. The offense had been pretty much rolling behind QB Dak Prescott, particularly since WR Amari Cooper came on board. RB Ezekiel Elliott (leads NFL in rush yds) was doing his usual damage as well. But the Colts defense held them scoreless to less than 300 total yards. One thing to consider, however, is that the Indy D plays a lot of zone. The Prescott-Cooper combination had largely been excelling against man to man looks. Definitely look for the Dallas offense to bounce back this week. Tampa Bay allows a frightening 37.0 PPG on the road this season, which is why they're 1-6 SU in such games. They are also still 28th in YPG allowed. This Bucs' defense plays a lot of man to man as well, so we should see more favorable matchups for Cooper in the Cowboys passing game. While a TB offense that has scored just 26 total pts the L2 wks is going up against a tough Dallas defense, they do get back WR Desean Jackson this week. Note that the Over is 13-3 in the Bucs' last 16 road games and 5-1 in the Cowboys' past six home games. 10* Over Bucs/Cowboys |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy UNDER 50 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Buffalo/Troy (7:00 ET): The Dollar General Bowl is a bit of a tough assignment for Buffalo. Not only are they playing a virtual road game (Troy to Mobile is less than a 3 hr drive), but they're still trying to get over the pain of blowing a 19-point lead to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. That 30-29 loss definitely still stings, but the Bulls still have a chance here to record their 11th victory of the season, which would be a single-season record for the program. This is a matchup of two of the better Group of 5 teams and I don't think motivation will be an issue for either side. Thus, this won't be one of those bowl games without any defense. I'm on the Under. Troy is going for its third straight 10-win season, which would be a first in the history of the program. Rather quietly, the Trojans have won 20 of their last 24 games, including a 2-0 mark in bowl under HC Neal Brown. But the offense didn't exactly have the most explosive finish to the regular season, scoring a combined 22 points in the final two games. The Troy offense is operating w/ a backup QB, Sawyer Smith, who took over for the injured Kaleb Barker in the middle of the season. In those final two regular season games, the Trojans' offense gained just 220 and 232 total yards. One of those games was against Texas State, at home! What Troy can and will lean on here is an excellent defense. The Trojans give up just 21.2 PPG and that number drops considerably when you take out the 59 they allowed at Boise State in the season opener. Since that season opener, they have not allowed more than 27 in any game. They've allowed 21 or fewer in 10 of 12 games. We know Buffalo has an explosive offensive, but Northern Illinois shut them down in the 2nd half of the MAC Title Game and that may be the blueprint Troy needed for stopping the Bulls here. Buffalo is no slouch defensively either as they allow just 24.7 PPG. I look for this to be one of the lower scoring games of the entire bowl season. 10* Under Buffalo/Troy |
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12-22-18 | Redskins +12 v. Titans | Top | 16-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
10* Washington (4:30 ET): I admit that this is a bit of an "ugly" play, but I'm going to stick with my numbers here. The numbers say Tennessee is way overvalued here and that's likely due to the combination of the "must-win" nature of the game for them (to stay viable in the playoff hunt) and the fact the Redskins are starting third-string QB Josh Johnson. But Johnson did lead the 'Skins to a victory last week, 16-13 over the Jaguars, in his first NFL start in seven seasons. Also, just because Tennessee "must win" here, doesn't mean they will cover. Washington, believe it or not, is also still alive in the playoff hunt. Take the points. Tennessee is not built to cover a spread this large. They average only 19.1 PPG and while it was shutout win last week (17-0 over the Giants), we usually don't see them win by that kind of margin. The Titans have only been favored in 4 of 13 games this season. Three of those instances are the last three weeks! While they beat the Giants and Jags by a combined 47-9 margin the L2 wks, remember they were also "tooth and nail" w/ the Jets here at home three weeks ago. Five of their eight wins this season have been by four points or less. This figures to be a low-scoring game and that makes taking the points an attractive option. Obviously, the focus for the Redskins defense here will be stopping RB Derrick Henry, who ran over both the Giants and Jags. But consider that the number of rushing yards Henry has the L2 wks (408) accounts for nearly half his season total. Titans QB Marcus Mariota did not thrown a TD pass in either game. Johnson actually looked fairly competent for Washington LW, completing 16 of 25 passes in a come from behind effort to beat Jacksonville. The Redskins have a good defense that can keep them in this one. Meanwhile, Tennessee's defense just lost a key piece w/ CB Logan Ryan suffering a broken leg. The only time the Titans have been favored by more than a TD this year was the Jets game when they won by only four. Oddsmakers are making you pay a premium on them here. 10* Washington |
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12-21-18 | BYU v. Western Michigan +13 | Top | 49-18 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
8* Western Michigan (4:00 ET): The big story here is WMU lost its starting QB (Jon Wassnick) late in the regular season. They went 1-2 SU w/ backup Kaleb Eleby (true frosh) as the starter, but that one win came in the regular season finale, as 6.5-pt underdogs, against MAC Champ Northern Illinois. With all the added prep time that comes w/ a bowl game, I'm not worried at all about Eleby coming in as the starter as he's posted solid numbers (917 yds passing, 6 TDs and 64.5 completion percentage). The Broncos should be highly motivated here by being such big underdogs and I think the oddsmakers have overadjusted as BYU is a pretty mediocre team this year. Take the points. BYU experienced a much different finish to its regular season as it lost to rival Utah in the latest installment of the "Holy War." It was their eighth consecutive loss to the Utes and perhaps the most painful one yet. That's because the Cougars blew a 20-0 halftime lead in Salt Lake City. Despite that game taking place weeks ago, my guess is that BYU still isn't over what happened. So, emotionally, the two teams in this year's Idaho Potato Bowl come in w/ very different mindsets. Western Michigan is off a big upset that gave them plenty of confidence while BYU is off the most deflating loss possible. BYU also starts a true freshman at QB, so it's not like they enjoy tremendous experience at that position either. I simply can't envision them covering this double digit spread, which seems to be based on name recognition only. The Cougars did have that big win at Wisconsin early in the year, but otherwise did not perform well against bowl teams and finished the regular season just 6-6 SU. I just don't see them being worthy of laying double digits on a neutral field. While it's true they have plenty of experience playing on the blue turf (game is in Boise), none of that experience is good as they're 0-5 SU all-time here. Last year saw a 6-6 Western Michigan team get snubbed from playing in a bowl, so the players should be highly motivated Friday afternoon. 8* Western Michigan |
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12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida OVER 51.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Marshall/USF (8:00 ET): I spent a good portion of this season railing against how fradulent South Florida's record was and it turned out that I couldn't have been more correct. At one point, the Bulls were 7-0 SU and ranked in the top 25. I thought the ranking was ridiculous as they were shockingly low in my power rankings. Sure enough, they dropped their final five regular season games, all by double digits. A team that was ranked and unbeaten in late October finished outside of the top 90 (!) in my personal power rankings, making them one of my lowest rated teams to make a bowl. As much as I'd love to fade them again here (I was 5-0 ATS fading them in the regular season), the Gasparilla Bowl is a home game for them (played in Tampa) and I think there's a chance they might "show up" Friday, at least offensively. Marshall is 11-2 SU all-time in bowl games. That's the highest win percentage for any team in the country w/ at least five bowl appearances. They are 5-0 SU and ATS under current HC Doc Holliday. They went 8-4 SU in the regular season, led by a defense that was outstanding, especially against the run. The Thundering Herd didn't allow a single 100-yd rusher in those 12 games and allows just 2.9 yards per carry. However, that stop unit did begin to wane late in the regular season. They allowed 190 rush yds in a narrow escape over FIU and then were shredded for 41 points by Va Tech in a game that wasn't scheduled until two weeks prior (Va Tech needed a 12th game to become bowl eligible and both they and Marshall had games postponed early in the year by Hurricane Florence). The offenses that the Marshall defense shut down were generally pretty bad. South Florida averages 29.2 PPG, but was scoring far more before QB Blake Barnett got hurt late in the year, causing him to miss two of the final three regular season games. Hopefully, Barnett will be able to play here. Regardless, the Bulls have a new playcaller for the bowl ( TE coach Justin Burke) as former OC Sterlin Gilbert bolted for McNeese State. During USF's 7-0 start, the offense went over 600 yds three different times. But perhaps the biggest key to this Over play is how bad the Bulls' defense is. It surrendered 442.2 YPG and was particularly brutal against the run. Six of USF's last seven opponents ran for at least 220 yards w/ three of those going for at least 322 (including UConn!). 10* Over Marshall/USF |
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12-19-18 | Ohio -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
10* Ohio (8:00 ET): San Diego State really hit the skids late in the season, losing four of its last five games and the lone win was a come from behind effort against a bad New Mexico team. This is simply not the same Aztecs team that we're used to seeing under HC Rocky Long. I played against them a couple of times down the stretch, once when they failed to cover at New Mexico (were -12.5) and then again the following week when they lost outright (as 24-pt favorites) at home to UNLV. The Aztecs' biggest problem is they simply don't score. Even when they put 30 on the board in the regular season finale vs. Hawaii, they still lost. For the year, they're averaging just 19.6 PPG away from home! They finished the year 7-5 SU, but 3-9 ATS. To me, they are one of the easiest fades this entire bowl season. I'll be laying the points here. Ohio was probably the best team in the MAC this year, even though they did not get a chance to play for a Conference Championship. This was also the case last season and the Bobcats went out and crushed UAB 41-6 in the Bahamas Bowl. Now they are in position to win B2B bowls for just the second time in program history, which woud be a nice treat for HC Frank Solich, who is now the oldest active coach in the country after the retirement of Kansas State's Bill Snyder. Unlike SDSU, the Bobcats can score. They average 41.2 PPG (10th in FBS) and are led by QB O'Rourke, who accounted for over 3,000 total yds (passing + rushing) and 35 touchdowns in the regular season. Ohio finished strong down the stretch. They come in having won five of six, scoring 49 or more pts in all five victories. The one loss, 30-28 at rival Miami, is what cost them the MAC East. Three of their four losses this year were by four points or less. After losing to Miami, the Bobcats then destroyed division champ Buffalo 52-17. Their strength of schedule was very comparable to San Diego State this season, so there's no edge there. I put little stock in the fact the Aztecs are 13-0-1 all-time against the MAC as Long has struggled in bowl games. Ohio is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games where the spread is three points or less (either way) and I like them to roll in the Frisco Bowl. 10* Ohio |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
10* Carolina (8:20 ET): This is essentially a "do-or-die" spot for the Panthers. Not only in terms of their current playoff standing, but also w/ their poor history against the Saints. Carolina comes into Monday night having dropped five in a row. That's the longest losing skid in the league right now. If there is one silver lining, they've generally been losing close games. Their last four losses have all been by a TD or less (been favored in every game). But there's no sugarcoating the rivalry w/ the Saints, which has seen the Panthers fail to cover six of the last seven meetings. They say "it's hard to beat the same time THREE times in the same season," but don't tell that to Carolina as they lost three times to New Orleans last year. They did cover in the playoff loss after going 0-2 ATS in the regular season. I think everyone considers the Saints to be the best team in the league right now, or they at least ought to. They've got the best record (11-2 SU), the best point differential (+164) and are 10-3 vs. the number. But there have been some signs that their dominance has waned. Two weeks ago, they went to Dallas and played - easily - their worst game of the season, getting beat 13-10. Then last week saw them have to rally back from a 14-3 second half hole against Tampa Bay. Total yardage was basically even in that game and the key was a blocked punt that swung the game. It was the second straight week that the Saints' vaunted offense was held below 300 total yards. This is a tricky spot for New Orleans as they're playing on the road for a third straight week. The sense of urgency is no longer there for them w/ the Rams losing last night. That Rams loss gives the Saints a very good chance of earning homefield advantage in the NFC half of the playoff draw. Meanwhile, Carolina should come out very inspired here. They're a much better team at home (5-1 SU) and this is just the second time all year they'll be a home dog (1st was a 36-21 win over Baltimore). They also have triple revenge against the Saints. The underdog has cashed seven of the past eight times in this NFC South rivarly. The Panthers are also 3-0 ATS their L3x as a home dog. 10* Carolina |
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12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 7 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): We all know the story here. New England has been a real nemesis for the Steelers through the year. The Patriots have won and covered the L5 meetings, which includes an AFC Championship Game (2016). All-time against Tom Brady, the Black & Gold are a horrible 2-11 SU and ATS. All but two of those games have come w/ Ben Roethlisberger at QB. Of course, the poor history vs. the Pats is only secondary to what's going on presently in Pittsburgh. After a 7-2-1 start, the Steelers have lost three in a row, putting their playoff status in precarious position. Another Big Ben nemesis, Oakland, stunned the Steelers last week. Roethlisberger was injured and missed most of the 2nd half, but did come back to lead a TD drive late. But the defense couldn't hold and Pittsburgh has still never won in Oakland during Big Ben's career. That followed a pair of frustrating, one-score losses to the Chargers (blew 23-7 halftime lead) and Broncos (had 527-308 edge in total yds, but were -4 in turnovers). Though the postseason is no longer guaranteed, this is still a good team. They average 34.5 PPG at home and IMO, still deserve to be favored here. New England is off its own stunning loss. Their came in the most improbable fashion possible as they gave up a multi-lateral TD on the final play at Miami last week. I'm sure you've seen it by this point. Laying a short number and off a SU loss, one can only assume the Patriots will be an attractive wager this week. But the reality of the matter is this team is only 3-4 SU on the road this year w/ losses to Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee and Miami. No doubt, head to head history played a role in where the oddsmakers set this line, but the Patriots are no longer what they once were. Putting pressure on Brady is key to beating him and the Steelers' D leads the league in sacks w/ 45. 8* Pittsburgh |
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12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -6.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 87 h 43 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): Fresh off the heels off a Monday night loss to Seattle, the Vikings decided to fire OC John DeFilippo. Anyone who watched the telecast probably wasn't surprised. The offense looked impotent as the announcers buried DeFilippo to no end. But truthfully, Minnesota didn't play nearly as poorly as the 21-7 final suggests. They actually had a slight edge in total yards in a game they trailed only 3-0 heading into the fourth quarter. When it was a 6-0 game, the Vikings had two chances to score, but were stopped on downs at the goal line, then later had a FG blocked in controversial fashion (Seattle's Bobby Wagner should have been called for "leaping.") To make matters worse, the Seahawks got a late defensive TD to ice the game. After the coordinator change, I expect the Vikings to respond well and deliver one of their best games of the year, at home, this week. Miami is 7-6 SU and anyone that has a TV knows how their game last week ended. Down 33-27 to the Patriots, they pulled off an all-time miracle on the final play of the game. My congrats to them for a season highlight worth celebrating. But here's the reality: the Dolphins are not a very good football team and extremely lucky to have a winning record. They've been outscored by 55 pts this year, a differential that's slightly worse than the Jaguars & Falcons, both of whom are 4-9 SU. This kind of overachieving has gone on throughout Adam Gase's tenure here. Over the last three seasons, Miami has been outscored by 184 points despite a 23-22 SU record. Every Dolphins win this year has been by eight points or less. Five of their six losses have come by double digits. The overachieving ends Sunday. Both teams desperately need to win here to stay in playoff hunt in their respective conferences. But Minnesota is at home, where they're 4-2 SU/ATS, including a perfect 3-0 as chalk in the -3.5 to -7 range. QB Kirk Cousins really is better than he's given credit for; he's just operating behind a questionable offensive line. With this line hovering around a TD, the Vikings are a great value (were -9.5 on the lookahead line). Not only did it take a miracle to win last week, but the previous week saw Miami outgained 415-175, yet come away w/ a 21-17 victory @ Buffalo when Bills QB Allen missed a wide open WR on the game's final play. What this play boils down to is my lack of respect for the Dolphins and their phony record. They've lost five in a row on the road. 10* Minnesota  |
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12-16-18 | Lions +3 v. Bills | Top | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 42 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-16-18 | Titans v. Giants UNDER 44 | Top | 17-0 | Win | 100 | 87 h 42 m | Show |
10* Under Titans/Giants (1:00 ET): Titans' games have generally been low-scoring this year, but the Over is a perfect 3-0 the L3 weeks. Last Thursday, they beat Jacksonville 30-9. That's a low-scoring game, but the total closed at 36.5, which is very low by 2018 standards. In fact, each of the L3 wks have seen low totals for Titans games. Against the Jets, they came from behind to win 26-22 (total was 43.5) and that was a game where they allowed an early defensive TD. Despite the recent rash of Overs, the Titans neither score nor allow 20 PPG. The total is a bit higher this week & I'm on the Under. The Giants' offense has also come alive recently. They've scored 30 or more in three of the last four games after only topping that threshold once in their previous 42 games! Having RB Saquon Barkley definitely helps, but so too did facing the horrific Bucs defense as well as a Redskins team that has been absolutely besieged by injuries. Eli Manning is still washed up in my opinion (B2B wks w/ less than 200 pass yds) and it's very likely that Odell Beckham Jr doesn't play against this week. Facing a superior defense in the Titans, I look for the Giants to also have a downturn on offense this week. Tennessee lost its starting TE and a right tackle last week. This is an offense that averages a scant 16.4 PPG on the road. That's the fourth lowest such average in the league, ahead of only the Bills, Raiders and Cardinals. The only other time this year that the Titans scored 30+, they came back the following week and scored only 10 (on the road). They've topped 17 pts only once in the L5 road games. Meanwhile, the G-men actually average fewer PPG at home than they do on the road. The Under is 9-1 in their last 10 tries off a SU win by 14+ points. The Titans allow only 19.5 PPG. 10* Under Titans/Giants |
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12-15-18 | Browns v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -103 | 99 h 8 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Saturday night matchup was Denver laying six points. So last week's respective results certainly had a significant impact on the oddsmakers. Cleveland beat Carolina, 26-20, at home while Denver went out and lost to lowly San Francisco, 20-14 as three-point chalk. The oddsmakers are now saying these teams are basically even, giving Denver the token number for homefield advantage. But I still believe that a gap does exist between these two teams. Lest we forget that the Broncos had won and covered three straight before taking the "L" last week. They've been hit hard by some injuries, but should still be able to defeat a team that is just 1-26 SU its last 27 road games. Lay the short number here. Let us also not forget the last time Cleveland was off a win. They'd just beaten the Bengals (snapping a 25-game road losing streak) and headed to Houston where they were completely outclassed by the Texans in a 29-13 loss (shutout in the 1H). Last week saw the Browns bounce back, at home, over a slumping Carolina team. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield has brought alot of excitement to this downtrodden organization, but I can't help but think expectations are a little TOO high right now w/ actual talk of running the table and making the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see how Mayfield operates, on the road (and in primetime) against a defense that has allowed 22 pts or fewer in five straight games. The Browns' defense remains pretty poor as it ranks 31st in yards allowed. These teams have a history against one another that goes back to the late 1980's when they were the top two teams in the AFC. But that was long ago. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Browns are 0-7 SU vs. the Broncos. I think Denver's stock was a little too high going into last week's game vs. San Francisco, but now it's a "buy low" situation off the loss. This is a team that holds recent wins over both the Chargers and Steelers. Granted that was before losing CB Chris Harris and WR Emmanuel Sanders. Those injuries definitely played a role in losing to the 49ers, but I think the team was also overconfident heading into last week. That will no longer be the case here. The Broncos are still the better team here and getting a home game on a short week is always an advantage. 10* Denver |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State -4.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 236 h 21 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (3:30 ET): Even though Fresno State (#23) is ranked, I think that a lot of people are going to do a double take when they seem them favored here over a Pac 12 team w/ a "name" head coach, Herm Edwards' Arizona State Sun Devils. But the Bulldogs deserve to be favored here and I believe will handle their business. To me, they are the BEST non-P5 team in America. (Yes, I'm including UCF in that discussion). FSU went 11-2 SU in the regular season and plays tremendous defense. They allow just 13.7 points per game, which was tied w/ Clemson for the second fewest in the entire country. Though bowl games aren't typically noted for their defense, I believe this Bulldogs team has enough pride to pack its D for Vegas as it looks to win its 22nd game in the L2 seasons. Lay the short number. Herm Edwards proved all the critics wrong in his 1st season in Tempe. He led the Sun Devils to a 7-5 SU record and they were never blown out. All five losses were by 7 points or less, four of them coming exactly by a seven-point margin, plus they lost by only two at Oregon. But they also won four games by a field goal or less. Having played so many close games, you might think playing ASU as an underdog would be ideal. After all, they did go 5-2 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But playing this game w/o WR N'keal Harry (skipping it to prepare for the NFL Draft) is not only the harsh reality of College Football, but just plain problematic. Harry had 73 catches for 1,000+ yards and nine touchdowns this year. That's a ton of production that ASU simply won't be able to replace in this game and going against one of the top defenses in the country makes things even tougher. Fresno State has been one of the top ATS teams in the country the L2 seasons under Jeff Tedford, going 19-6-2 ATS overall. So having to lay such a short number w/ them is pretty nice. Yes, they're facing a Pac 12 school, but the Bulldogs just beat Boise State in the Mt West Champ Game (on the blue turf!) and won't be intimidated. This game is being played at MWC venue, the Sam Boyd Silver Bowl, home of UNLV. So that's another advantage for Fresno State. They won here just last month. Granted, it won't be as easy as 48-3 (destroyed UNLV), but it's still an edge. These teams had one common opponent during the regular season, San Diego State, and while Fresno State dominated the Aztecs (won 24-13), Arizona State lost to them 28-21. 10* Fresno State |
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12-15-18 | North Texas v. Utah State OVER 67 | Top | 13-52 | Loss | -115 | 235 h 52 m | Show |
8* Over North Texas/Utah State (2:00 ET): The build for the 2018 New Mexico Bowl centers as much around who is/isn't coaching as anything else. Seth Litrell has decided to remain at North Texas after flirting w/ the Kansas State job. Utah State isn't so lucky as they lost HC Matt Wells to Texas Tech. (Former Aggies HC Gary Andersen will replace him, returning to Logan after leaving for Wisconsin six years ago and then a failed stint at Oregon State. But it will be USU assistant Frank Maile coaching the bowl game). Let's not let the respective coaching situations overshadow the growth of these two programs. Even though this spread is one of the largest of the non-CFP games, these are two of the best non-P5 teams in America. I expect a high-scoring affair in Albuquerque come Saturday afternoon. North Texas started the season strong. They were 6-1 SU midway through October and had a win over an SEC school (Arkansas). But a 2-3 SU finish (also 0-5 ATS) resulted in the Mean Green not making the C-USA Champ Game for 2nd straight year. They averaged 36.4 PPG and 472.8 YPG on offense, both of which were top 20 nationally. However, the Under went 11-1 in their 12 regular season games, making them the top Under team in the entire country. That hasn't stopped oddsmakers from installing a pretty high total for this matchup w/ Utah State. That's because the Aggies bring in an offense the likes of which this Mean Green defense hasn't seen all season. Utah State averaged 47.2 PPG during the regular season. Only two teams scored more - Oklahoma and Alabama. So being in the top three is pretty impressive company. The Aggies lost only two games in the regular season, their first (in OT at Michigan State) and last (33-24 at Boise State). In between, they won 10 straight games. While Wells is gone, the offense he built is still in place and should continue scoring at will. Unlike UNT, the Over hit more often than not for USU, going 8-3-1. So it's one of the top Over teams vs. the top Under team. My read is that both offenses are going to have their way here and we'll see little in the way of defense. Utah State plays at a fast tempo and North Texas is unlike most opponents in that they will keep pace thanks to QB Mason Fine, who threw for 300 yds and 2 TDs in all but two games this year. The Mean Green have one of the top passing attacks in the entire country. 8* Over North Texas/Utah State |
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