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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-20-18 | Buffalo v. Toledo +1.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -113 | 43 h 39 m | Show |
10* Toledo (12:00 ET): Before the start of the season, I think that few (if anyone!) woud have expected Buffalo to go into the Glass Bowl and pick up a win, let alone be FAVORED over Toledo. But here we are in October and HC Lance Leipold (who made the jump from D-III power Wisc-Whitewater) has this Bulls team playing awfully well. They're 6-1 and unbeaten in MAC play, holding wins over Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Akron. Not to mention, they've also gone on the road and beaten both Temple and Rutgers. It's looking like there's a very good chance that this UB team ends up w/ more wins than either the '08 or '13 editions (8 each) that represent the only two times the program has ever been to a bowl game. Toledo, who has been the team to beat in the MAC West the last few seasons, feels like a disappointment right now. The Rockets enter this game 3-3 and are off a disappointing 28-26 loss LW at Eastern Michigan, a team Buffalo beat by a TD (at home, though). That loss saw Toledo battle back from a 28-3 halftime deficit, only to have the potential game-tying two-point conversion denied in the final minute. The Rockets' other two losses were to Miami FL and at Fresno State, games where they came in as double digit underdogs. So while the 2018 season may feel like a disappointment thus far, last week was the only time that the Rockets lost in a situation where they were expected to win. I think that returning to the Glass Bowl is huge as they've scored 63 and 52 pts the L2x here. I just can't get over the fact Buffalo is now favored here. It's largely been public money that caused this number to "jump the fence" and that has me jumping in on the other side. Buffalo has never won here at the Glass Bowl where Toledo has lost only twice in three years under HC Jason Candle and one of the losses to Miami FL. Plus, the Bulls have hardly faced the strongest slate of opponents in compiling their 6-1 SU record. They do have the upset over Temple, but that was back in Week 2 when the Owls weren't playing nearly as well as they are now. And they were humbled by the best team they've faced, Army, 42-13. This will be UB's eight straight week playing w/o a bye. Toledo has not been a home dog to a MAC opponent since 2013 vs. a Northern Illinois team that was nationally ranked and had won 22 of its previous 23 games. 10* Toledo |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 38 m | Show |
8* Arizona (8:20 ET): It's certainly not the most marquee Thursday night battle this week as two struggling teams, Denver and Arizona, meet out in the desert. The Broncos are 2-4, but have lost four straight, while the Cardinals are 1-5 SU and last in the league in most offensive categories. Despite their offensive deficiencies, I see some value on the home team here. Home teams usually have the edge in these Thursday night games (well, not the Giants last week) and I'm not sure Denver is a team that should be laying points on the road. The Broncos' two wins this year, both at home, were by a combined four points. Their two road games have seen them lose by a combined 31 points. Take the points here. Neither team has had a friendly schedule so far. Arizona lost at Minnesota last week, 27-17, and didn't look impressive at all in doing so. They have yet to gain even 300 total yards in a game this season, which is incredible in today's NFL. Last week's 269 was actually a season-high even though they'd won the previous week at San Francisco. I thought the Cardinals' defense did a decent job pressuring Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, but there were few, if any, other positives. I will say that w/ Josh Rosen as the QB, the team is going to be better offensively than they were w/ Sam Bradford. The Cards' last two home games saw them fight down to the wire, losing to Seattle and Chicago by only a combined five points. They went 0 for 12 on 3rd/4th down last week, which isn't likely to be repeated here. Denver fought valiently against the Rams on Sunday, but ultimately went down by a score of 23-20. They had a few games go down to the wire ATS w/ results varying, so last week was the first time the Broncos definitely covered for anybody. Under Vance Joseph, the team has gone 5-15-2 ATS, the worst such record in the league during that time. The biggest problem Joseph has faced is at QB as the franchise has gotten poor play out of the position ever since Peyton Manning retired. Truthfully, Manning wasn't very good his final season, so it's been three years of bad QB play here. Case Keenum isn't looking like the answer as he's tossed at least one INT in every game. The Denver offensive line is thin coming into this game w/ guard Ronald Leary out w/ an ACL. The defense has allowed an incredible 593 yards rushing the last two weeks and gave up over 500 total yds to the Jets in their last road game. 8* Arizona |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under 49ers/Packers (8:15 ET): Both of these teams certainly played well enough to win last week, but neither did. San Francisco outgained Arizona 447-220, but lost 28-18 thanks to a -5 turnover margin. It was a similar story for Green Bay, who was +257 in total yardage (521-264), but lost to Detroit 31-23 due to a combination of a -3 turnover margin and kicker Mason Crosby going an unconscionable 1 for 5 on field goal attempts. So both teams definitely left plenty of points "on the field." That sounds like a reason to possibly lean Over the next time out, but I don't see either team moving the ball as effectively Monday night. Both defenses surprisingly rank in the top 10 in efficiency. I'm on the Under. Green Bay is just 2-2-1 SU and the big story for them has been Aaron Rodgers' knee. Now Rodgers' knee didn't really seem to be bothering him last week as the Packers offense didn't punt a single time on their 11 possessions. But the former MVP did fumble twice for just the third time in his 14-year career. Protection has been an issue w/ Rodgers getting sacked 16 times and maybe that can be pinned on the knee injury. Yet another issue has been injuries at the receiver position. Both Geronimo Allen and Randall Cobb are listed as questionable and w/ the bye week looming, one has to wonder if it would be the "right move" to hold them out. The Packers have not scored 30 pts in a game this season and average just 23.0 PPG, 18th overall. San Francisco (1-4) doesn't want to hear about injuries right now as few teams have been hit harder than them in that department. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been lost for the season, leaving the uninspiring CJ Beathard at the helm. The Niners have done a surprising amount of scoring w/ Beathard starting, but look for that to subside. Eight offensive players missed practice time this week, a group that includes three starting linemen, three receivers a tight end and a running back. So it could be a real "skeleton crew" lining up at Lambeau Field Monday night. I don't look for much from the Niners this week and this simply isn't the same Packers' offense as we've been accustomed to seeing through the years. 10* Under 49ers/Packers |
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10-14-18 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +3 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:25 ET): Cowboys HC Jason Garrett was the opposite of aggressive in last week's OT loss to Houston and it cost his team the game. Now truthfully, the Cowboys should have felt fortunate to even force that game into OT as they were outgained 462-292 and there were two Texans drives that reached the goal line and ended up combining for only three points. But this Dallas team can play defense as is evident by the fact they are allowing just 19.2 points (5th) and 337.4 yards (8th) per game. They are also back in Jerry World where they're 2-0 this season, beating the Giants and Lions. The task is certainly tougher this week w/ the Jaguars coming to the Metroplex, but I believe America's Team is more than capable of pulling the outright upset. Take the points. Jacksonville has been very "up and down" thus far w/ a win over New England, but also an ugly 9-6 loss to Tennessee. Last week saw them get badly outclassed in an AFC showdown w/ the Chiefs, losing 30-14. They did gain over 500 total yds of offense, but they also turned the ball over five times. Blake Bortles and company are actually off B2B 500+ yd efforts, but I wouldn't look for that streak to continue here as they are w/o RB Leonard Fournette against a quality defense. Remember that the Chiefs, as good as they are, have one of the worst defenses in the league right now. I still don't put a ton of trust in Bortles to carry his team to victory on the road. The Jags are just 3-6 SU and ATS the L3 seasons against the NFC as well and that includes a win over the sorry Giants back in Week 1. My one area of concern here is that Dallas won't be able to pass the ball at all. We knew it would be a struggle for them to effectively throw the ball coming into the year (worst WR corps in league?) and it has been as they rank 29th. Jacksonville is #1 against the pass, so look for plenty of Ezekiel Elliott in this matchup. The Jaguars have improved significantly against the run this year, but stopping Elliott will be a tough chore. The Jacksonville offense is also going to struggle to move the ball I think. They've topped 20 pts in only two of their five games to begin with and they haven't exactly faced the toughest slate of defenses. In a game that figures to feature little scoring, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Dallas |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | Top | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 39 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The Falcons have been one of the biggest disappointments so far as they're 1-4 and off an embarrassing 41-17 loss to the Steelers. The defense has been nothing short of abysmal the L3 weeks, giving up 43, 37 and 41 points. I hate to admit it now, but I had Atlanta winning the NFC South before the start of the season. Now, they'll be lucky to even finish .500. Despite that, the team hasn't actually played as poorly as it seems. Consider this stat. Since 1940, teams scoring 36+ pts at home w/ zero turnovers are 402-4 SU. Atlanta has accounted for two of those four losses THIS SEASON! Last week's game against the Steelers didn't see them outgained significantly and it was actually a 10-pt game into the 4th quarter. I don't see the Falcons losing at home again this week, so I'll lay the points. Tampa Bay is off a bye this week, but has its own issues going on. I think that this team is still getting "residual credit" for its 2-0 start when they shockingly upset both the Saints and Eagles. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the way in those two wins, becoming the first QB in league HISTORY to throw for 400+ yards and 4 TD's in each of the first two games. But "Fitzmagic" quickly ran out of tricks and is no longer even the team's starter. The last two games saw him toss four interceptions and he was finally benched in an embarrassing 48-10 loss to Chicago two weeks ago (I was on the Bears!). There was actually some controversy heading into that game as Jameis Winston was eligible to play after being suspended the first three games. Fitzpatrick's poor play made the switch back to Winston an easy one for HC Dirk Koetter. Again, I still believe the Bucs are getting too much credit for that 2-0 start. They have given up 78 points in the last two games and I believe the Falcons are going to score a ton in this game. Tampa Bay is second worst in yards per game allowed and even w/ the bye half of the league has still allowed fewer total yards! Offense has certainly NOT been the problem for Atlanta as they are averaging nearly 400 YPG and now have RB Devonta Freeman back in the fold. Something else contributing to unfounded optimism for the Bucs is Winston making his first start of the season off the bye. Yes, it was the ideal spot to make the change, but the Bucs simply aren't going to be a demonstrably better team w/ Winston in there as opposed to Fitzpatrick. 10* Atlanta |
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10-14-18 | Panthers v. Redskins | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 6 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): The Redskins turned in an absolutely dreadful performance Monday night in New Orleans, losing 43-19. Being that the loss is still so fresh in people's minds, I expect them to be a fairly unpopular choice this week vs. Carolina. But I love the spot for them to bounce back. If they're not motivated after being humiliated on national television, then I don't know what to think. It helps being at home. The last time the 'Skins played at home, I took them and they upset Green Bay 31-17 in what is probably their most impressive performance to date. The defense was shredded by Drew Brees and company Monday night, but had given up an average of just 14.7 PPG the first three weeks. On offense, QB Alex Smith is much better than he looked on MNF. Carolina is 3-1, but I'm not convinced this is a good team. Then again, I didn't think last year's edition was nearly as good as its 11-5 SU record due to being a very fortunate 7-2 in one-score games (best win percentage in the league). The Panthers pulled another rabbit out of their collective hat last week, beating the Giants 33-31 on a Graham Gano 63-yard field goal as time expired. Carolina was outgained in the contest, 432-350, and is actually being slightly outgained for the year. Not only on a yards per game basis, but on a yards per play basis as well. The defense is giving up a frightening 6.7 yards per play to this point, which is bottom five in the league. Note that they were +4 in turnovers vs. Cincinnati the week before the bye. All three Panthers victories have come at home. Washington may be averaging 5.2 less PPG compared to Carolina, but the teams are roughly even when it comes down to yards gained. The Redskins have actually outgained the opposition this season (by about 38 YPG) and are close to the top 10 in yards per play allowed. My read is that this is one of those games where the better team isn't getting nearly enough credit and in this particular instance that team is Washington. It can sometimes be a dangerous line of thinking, but I simply don't see Carolina as a 4-1 team. I had them regressing pretty considerably here in 2018 and am not yet ready to come off that assertion. Great value here on the Redskins at home. 10* Washington |
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10-13-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International -2.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 18 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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10-13-18 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +7 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 49 m | Show |
8* Iowa State (7:00 ET): There are still 11 unbeaten teams left in College Football. Some - like NC State and Colorado - are clear "pretenders" while you also have three teams (UCF, USF and Cincinnati) hailing from the American. Five of the 11 have clearly separated themselves as National Title contenders, those being Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson and Notre Dame. Then you have West Virginia, who feels like an island unto itself. The Mountaineers really haven't beaten anyone of note, save for Texas Tech a couple weeks ago in what was their only "true" road game to this point. This week looks to be WVU's toughest test to date as they play an Iowa State team fresh off a 48-42 upset of Oklahoma State in Stillwater. I'm taking the points w/ the home dog yet again. This will actually be the third consecutive week I'm playing against West Virginia as I don't view them as a true national title contender. That's not the only reason I'm looking to fade them again, mind you. It's also the fact that they're unbeaten status pretty clearly has them overrated by the pollsters and the oddsmakers. They did get me two weeks ago in Lubbock, beating Texas Tech 42-34, but that was a pretty even game where the Mountaineers clearly benefited from not only a +3 turnover margin, but also the Red Raiders losing their QB due to injury. Last week, I got some revenge by taking a big number w/ Kansas. At no point in the game was WVU covering as they turned in over four times and won only 38-22 as a four touchdown choice. Iowa State is only 2-3 SU, but they've played a pretty difficult schedule. Already they've taken on Iowa, Oklahoma, TCU and Oklahoma State. So their Big 12 schedule has been very much the reverse of WVU's in that it's frontloaded. (WVU plays its toughest games in November). Led by freshman QB Brock Purdy (making his 1st start!), the Cyclones put up season-highs in both yards and points LW vs. Oklahoma State. Purdy is a dual-threat and accounted for 402 total yds w/ 318 passing and 84 rushing and RB David Montgomery could be back for this game. Even if he's not, ISU is 9-2 ATS the L11 times it has been a dog w/ five outright upsets. This is a triple revenge spot as well following a four-point loss LY in Morgantown. Iowa State is a great value here. 8* Iowa State |
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10-13-18 | Michigan State v. Penn State -13.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 30 m | Show |
8* Penn State (3:30 ET): I think most people look at this number and think about Mark Dantonio's 13-3 ATS record as an underdog of a TD or more in Big 10 play. But the fact is that Michigan State simply is not that good in 2018 while Penn State is rested off a bye and angry off a loss. Sparty lost last Saturday, in East Lansing, to Northwestern by a score of 29-19. That was a game they were favored to win by double digits. Truthfully, I haven't been impressed in any game w/ MSU this year, save for a 35-21 win at Indiana, but even then they turned the ball over four times. The season started w/ them barely escaping at home against Utah State. The following week, I played against them out in Tempe when they lost outright to Arizona State. They also only beat a bad Central Michigan team by 11. Not only does Michigan State look to be outclassed here, but Penn State is rested and playing w/ revenge. Nevermind the fact that they should also be highly motivated from letting one slip away against Ohio State two weeks ago here in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions at least still covered that game and are now a money-making 23-9 ATS overall the L3 seasons. One of the games they failed to cover was LY's visit to East Lansing where they lost 27-24 as nine-point favorites. Just like this year, they were coming off a narrow loss (1 point) to Ohio State. But the difference this year is the bye. Last year, they immediately had to play Sparty in an obvious letdown spot. This time, there has been time to "get over" the loss to the Buckeyes and get prepared to exact some revenge. Last year's game was decided on a last second FG in terrible weather. The game was actually delayed for 3.5 hours w/ Penn State up 14-7. Weather is not expected to be a factor Saturday in Happy Valley. The last time Michigan State visited here, they were soundly beaten, 45-12. Both teams may have started their respective season w/ a closer than expected call (MSU vs. Utah State, PSU vs. App State), but that's where the comparisons end. Penn State handily defeated its next three opponents (even w/ underwhelming 1st halves) and probably should have beaten Ohio State as well. Look for Nittany Lions QB Trace McSorley to have a big game here, similar to Northwestern's Clayton Thorson last week against this Michigan State defense, which is giving up over 300 YPG through the air. 8* Penn State |
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10-13-18 | Western Kentucky v. Charlotte +7.5 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 50 h 21 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (3:30 ET): We're going all home dogs in this package, starting w/ a matchup you're probably pretty unfamiliar with. But it looks like I'm not the only one who sees some significant value on a Charlotte here as the 49ers have actually been bet down a few points from the opening number. Still, I love the situation as they are off a bye. It was not a great first month of the season by any means as Charlotte's two wins saw them beat a FCS school (Fordham) and an Old Dominion team that had to deal w/ a schedule change due to Hurricane Florence (to be fair, Charlotte also had to deal w/ the change, but they were at home). But both wins did come here at home and I'm not sure Western Kentucky is a team that should be laying this many points on the road, even if they have covered three in a row and are off a bye themselves. Take the points. Looking on the bright side, Charlotte already has more wins than they did all of last year (went 1-11 SU). That's not a surprise to me as the figured to be improved bringing back 18 starters. I think the last two games definitely deserve to be described as disappointing being that they actually outgained UMass in a 49-31 loss and could then muster only seven points against UAB. But both those games took place on the road and UAB was coming off its own bye. This will actually be the 49ers' 1st Saturday home game since Opening Weekend and I expect them to come out highly motivated. I thought the defense actually played remarkably well against UAB, given the circumstance. The Blazers came in ranked #8 in the country, averaging 280 YPG rushing. But the 49ers held them to a season-low 116 yds on the ground. Western Kentucky might be 4-1 ATS, but they have just one SU win to show for it and that came against Ball State. The Hilltoppers have three losses by a field goal each, one of them to an FCS school, Maine. Granted, they've played well enough to win some of these games, whether it be Louisville (blew a double-digit lead) or Marshall (fumbled at the 10-yd line late). But they haven't been able to finish due to the offense converting on only 69% of its chances in the red zone and the kicking game missing half of its field goal attempts. My "gut" tells me this ends up being a close game where taking the points is the way to go. Charlotte QB Chris Reynolds and RB Benny Lemay can make enough plays that an outright upset isn't out of the realm of possibility. 8* Charlotte |
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10-13-18 | Temple v. Navy +7 | Top | 24-17 | Push | 0 | 50 h 20 m | Show |
8* Navy (3:30 ET): What is going on w/ Navy? The Midshipmen's season appears to be sinking fast w/ a 2-3 SU record that includes B2B outright losses to SMU and Air Force. If you recall, I faded the Middies at SMU, a game they lost in overtime. The team is actually now 0-3 ATS w/ three outright losses in the road favorite role this season after the horrible performance LW at Air Force, made all the more shocking by the fact they were off a bye. But this week finds them back in the more comfortable role of home underdog, which has treated them unbelievably well through the years. Navy's record as a home dog under HC Ken Niumatalolo is 6-1 SU and ATS w/ an outright win over Memphis earlier this season. I'll gladly take the points here against a Temple team that seems overvalued coming off a 49-6 win over East Carolina last week. Temple's season did not appear to be destined for anything special when they opened w/ B2B home losses to Villanova (FCS school) and Buffalo. But they turned things around w/ a shocking performance at Maryland the following week, winning 35-14 as 16-pt dogs, and are 3-0 ATS since w/ the only loss coming at Boston College. This week will be the 1st time that the Owls are favored on the road, however, and that change can be a big deal. I'm not so sure this team is as good as it looked last week against East Carolina, who simply isn't a very good team. That game got out of hand very quickly w/ Temple jumping out to a 28-0 lead early in the 2Q following a 59-yard punt return for a touchdownn. QB Anthony Russo had a career day, completing 21 of 25 passes w/ four touchdowns. But he had a 0-4 TD-INT ratio the two weeks prior. Last week's effort against Air Force may have been the worst I have ever seen from Navy under Niumatalolo. They were held to only 178 total yards, easily a season low. Despite the defense allowing only 17 first downs for the game, Air Force still gained almost 400 total yards (399) as two of their five TD drives took less than a minute. I expect a huge bounce back effort from the service academy Saturday as they are 2-0 in Annapolis this season. Last year, the Owls had the benefit of facing Navy off a bye and facing Army the week prior.They pulled off a 34-26 upset as seven-point home dogs. What a swing in the line for this year. Temple has NEVER beaten Navy three straight times. 8* Navy |
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10-13-18 | Duke +3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 8 m | Show |
10* Duke (12:20 ET): Whether you're playing Georgia Tech or one of the service academies, successfully defending the triple option really seems to hinge on adequate preparation. Louisville is a poorly coached team going south in a hurry, but the Cardinals were also certainly ill-prepared for the Georgia Tech offense last Thursday in a 66-31 whitewashing. That game found L'ville not only playing on a short week, but also off a heartbreaking loss to Florida State the previous Saturday. They wanted no part of the Yellow Jackets, who ran for an astounding 532 yards. However, this week, the situation could not be more different for Ga Tech's opponent. Duke is off a bye and has already faced the triple option this year - when they beat Army 34-14. I'm taking the points here. Duke actually faces the triple option fairly regularly. Not only is Ga Tech a regular ACC opponent (both play in the Coastal Division), but they have faced Army three straight years as well. This is the second time this year they go up against the triple option in the most ideal spot possible. Army opened this year's schedule, so they had plenty of time to prepare and it showed in a 34-14 win where they allowed only 168 yards on 47 carries (only 3.57 YPC). Keep in mind that when they beat Army LY, the Blue Devils allowed only 4.0 YPC, which was an Army season low. Now they're off the bye getting ready to face Georgia Tech, who they've beaten three of the past four seasons. Last year, they won 43-20 as a seven-point home dog, the week after facing Army. Duke is a better team this year as they started 4-0 before a loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago. That loss saw the return of QB Daniel Jones to the field and though the team lost, Jones should play a lot better here with two weeks to prepare. HC David Cutcliffe is an incredible 14-2 ATS w/ 12 outright upsets as an underdog of four points or less. He's also 7-1 ATS against option teams, including a perfect 4-0 ATS w/ three outright upsets the L4 seasons. Georgia Tech may come in off B2B 60+ pt efforts, but those came against two absolutely terrible teams in Bowling Green and Louisville. Defensively, Duke has the edge as they are holding opponents to 89 YPG less than what they average for the season. Georgia Tech is giving up 34 PPG and over 470 YPG to FBS teams this year. The better team is getting points here. 10* Duke |
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10-12-18 | South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (7:00 ET): South Florida enters the weekend as 1 of 11 teams still w/o a loss this season. But of the 11, they just may be the weakest. The fact that the Bulls actually find themselves ranked in the top 25 this week is instructive as to just how pointless those rankings are. For the sake of reference, I have USF rated just outside the top SIXTY teams in the country. That "0" in the loss column may go a long way w/ the pollsters, but not w/ me. While the Bulls did just hang 58 points and 574 total yards on UMass last Saturday (also benefited from five turnovers), they won their previous two games - over Eastern Carolina & Illinois - by only a combined 13 points. East Carolina and Georgia Tech both outgained USF by more than 150 total yards. Tulsa is just 1-4 SU w/ four straight losses. But they have a bit of an edge right off the bat w/ two extra days to prepare. While USF was on the road last Saturday at UMass, the Golden Hurricane last played on Thursday. So this isn't even a short week for them. And that 41-26 loss at Houston last week was a little misleading in the sense that Tulsa led 26-17 early in the fourth quarter despite starting a backup freshman quarterback. They held the ball for 11 more minutes than Houston and gained 426 yards despite said backup QB and also being without one of their top two running backs. RB Shamari Brooks has 375 rushing yards on the year and is expected back on the field Friday. The Golden Hurricane are averaging more than 200 rush yards per game. USF, specifically RB Jordan Cronkite, can also run the ball as was evident last week vs. UMass when Cronkite topped 300 yds by his lonesome. But I'm still not sold on Charlie Strong's team. The schedule has certainly been pretty weak to this point w/ four wins over teams that are below a .333 win percentage vs. FBS foes dating back to last year and FCS Elon. The Bulls also commit a lot of penalties, which could bite them in this road favorite role. They have lost three of their previous four Friday night road games. These teams played last year, with USF winning only 27-20 as 22-pt home favorites. This isn't a typical trip for the Bulls with their only prior visit coming in 2014. I'm taking the points this week. 10* Tulsa |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
10* Under Eagles/Giants (8:20 ET): The Super Bowl Champion Eagles appear wounded. They've dropped B2B games and already equaled LY's number of losses w/ three. They're lucky to be in a pretty poor division (NFC East), which includes this week's opponent, the Giants. Philadelphia has yet to play a single NFC East game, so they still very much can control their own destiny. So far, all five games they've played have been decided by six points or less. But the reality is that last week's 23-21 loss to the Vikings (NFC Champ Game rematch) was not as close as the final score indicated. They were down 20-3 early in the second half and more than 200 of their 364 total yards came after that point. They were victimized by an early fumble return for touchdown, so their defense didn't play that poorly. Going back to last year, the Eagles defense has performed significantly better at home than on the road. They are on the road this week, but the Giants hardly have an offense that can take any kind of advantage. The G-Men actually scored 30+ pts last week, but of course still found a way to lose (to Carolina), this time being a Graham Gano 63-yard FG as time expired. This is a team that did not score 30 or more points in a single game last season ... or the year before that (2016) for that matter. In their previous three losses, the Giants scored only 15, 13 and 18 points. QB Eli Manning is washed up and over the hill, which is why WR Odell Beckham Jr is complaining so much. I'm not sure why the Giants have so much invested in the RB/WR positions when the QB play is so bad. I think that it's a lock the Giants score fewer points this week. Last week snapped a streak of 37 straight games w/o scoring 30 or more. Both games vs. Philadelphia went Over last year as have each of the last five meetings. But this one should be a more low-scoring affair. Though Carson Wentz has good numbers in his first three starts, he's not making as many big plays. The Eagles' offense also just lost RB Jay Ajayi. The Giants' defense, while not great, should be able to keep them in this game. One area the G-men may have to worry about though is special teams as kicker Aldrick Rosas has not practiced this week. 10* Under Eagles/Giants |
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10-11-18 | Georgia Southern v. Texas State +17.5 | Top | 15-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
8* Texas State (7:30 ET): Georgia Southern is one of four teams that remains unbeaten against the spread. One of the other three also happens to hail from the Sun Belt, that being Appalachian State, who we made the mistake of fading Tuesday. Georgia Southern happens to play in the same division (SBC East) as App State and it figures to be a dogfight moving forward between the two teams at Troy. Last Saturday saw GSU make it a perfect 5-0 against the number w/ a commanding 48-13 win over South Alabama. The only team to defeat the Eagles this year was Clemson and that happens to be their only road game played so far. Thursday night finds them laying a big number at Texas State and while it looks like a mismatch, I think the underdog finds a way to compete here. Texas State HC Everett Withers has struggled to build a winner in San Marcos. His first two teams each went 2-10 SU. I thought this year's team would be better, but it's been tough sledding w/ the only win coming against an FCS school, Texas Southern. They were blown out at Rutgers to start the year, which they followed w/ the win over Texas Southern. They've since dropped three in a row, but none by more than 15 points. Against South Alabama, they led by 2 TDs on the road, but were outscored 18-0 in the fourth quarter. Each of the last two weeks, bad starts have doomed them. But they've been able to put some points on the board late. That will be critical here as there should at least be a chance to "backdoor" given the size of the pointspread. I'd honestly be shocked if Texas State won this game. Truthfully, the season is not looking good with most of their hardest conference games still to come. But this is a rare TV game at home and I at least expect a strong effort from the Bobcats. Georgia Southern may very well be overlooking this game w/ just five days to prepare. While the Eagles are certainly used to being favored, laying this many points on the road is still relatively new for a school that made the jump to FBS only four years ago. That first season at the FBS level saw them barely escape w/ a win here in San Marcos. They haven't faced Texas State in either of the past two seasons and this spread may very well end up as the most points they've ever had to lay on the road. Look for this game to be closer than expected. 8* Texas State |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +9.5 | Top | 35-9 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
10* Arkansas State (8:00 ET): To those who follow the Sun Belt, seeing Arkansas State as an underdog - in Jonesboro no less - is quite stunning. Especially of this magnitude. The Red Wolves have won this conference five times since 2010. They've only been a dog seven times, just three of those coming under current HC Blake Anderson. Their ATS record is a perfect 7-0 w/ SIX outright wins. They're getting almost double digits Tuesday and that's virtually unprecedented. The only time under Anderson that the Red Wolves have gotten this many points at home was when Missouri visited in 2015. This year's team is 3-2 SU w/ one of the two losses coming to Alabama. The other was two Saturdays ago to Georgia Southern, a spot they were favored on the road. I'll take the points here. Appalachian State is unbeaten against the spread (4-0) and nearly won at Penn State. They took the Nittany Lions to overtime in the season opener and since then it's been three straight wins over cupcakes. They also had a game vs. Southern Miss cancelled due to Florence. As impressive as sticking w/ Penn State in Happy Valley was, we've learned little about the Mountaineers since then. Charlotte, Gardner-Webb nor South Alabama were no match, so you can basically "throw out" the respective final scores of 45-9, 72-7 and 52-7. This is not a place App State is used to visiting (last time here was '14) nor is Arkansas State an opponent they are all that familiar with. They have not even played the last two years. Because they are 4-0 ATS w/ three blowout wins, this number is inflated. Three blowout wins have inflated their power rating. Take the fact that the Mountaineers rank 8th nationally in total defense w/ a grain of salt. I'm actually a little shocked that Arkansas State has not topped 30 pts since its opener vs. FCS SE Missouri State. They were the only SBC power to return its starting QB, that being senior Justice Hansen. He's underperformed to this point in the season, but that can change in a hurry. He threw for 376 yds in the loss to Ga Southern, a game that was not decided until the final seconds. Ark State outgained GSU in the 28-21 loss and had nearly twice as many first downs. 10* Arkansas State |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5 | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under Redskins/Saints (8:20 ET): With the world focused on Drew Brees setting a NFL record, the Over is going to be a popular bet Monday night. But the oddsmakers know this and have set a high O/U mark for the Redskins and Saints. Washington should be well-prepared for this game as they are coming off a bye. They're 2-1 and last time we saw them was Week 3 as as home dog vs. Green Bay. I took them and the points in that one and was rewarded w/ a nice 31-17 outright victory. This is a team whose games have generally been low-scoring as they are averaging only 21.3 PPG while allowing only 14.7. Take the Under. As per usual, the Saints are scoring a lot of points. They average 34.2 points per game and have scored 40 or more twice. Last week was the first time this season that they had to take their act outdoors and they still scored 33 in a win over the Giants. They've now won three straight since that Week 1 head-scratcher against the Bucs where they gave up 48 points. The defense has faced two bad offenses the last three weeks and allowed just 18 pts to both the Browns and Giants. Washington can score more than those two teams, but I wouldn't look for them to get a whole lot more. Brees is all but assured to set the NFL record for passing yards in this one as he only need 201 yards to pass Peyton Manning. Will Brees be "pressing" to throw the ball and get the record though? That could be a factor. What the Saints should do is lean on the run as Mark Ingram returns from suspension for this game, joining Alvin Kamara for what is an outstanding backfield tandem. The Saints will "get theirs" on offense here, but remember they were held to just 21 pts in their last home game by the Browns. I don't look for them to hit 30 tonight. As for Washington, with Alex Smith at QB, we know they are going to be a conservative offense and I look for them to try and play "keep away" from Brees and the Saints. 10* Under Redskins/Saints |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 37 h 17 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:20 ET): Both Texas teams are desperate for a win Sunday night, but only one can get it. Houston is used to being in desperation mode as they opened 0-3. All three losses came by seven points or less, so it's not like they were getting blown out. Figuring the "worm was due to turn," I took the Texans last week and they grinded out an OT win over the Colts, 37-34. All that work would be for naught, however, if they reverted back to losing here. As I said last week, this team is better than its record. They came into last week ranked 8th in yards per play on offense and those number obviously got better w/ a 37-point effort. Their defense, led by JJ Watt, should have no problem containing a rather one-dimensional Dallas offense and I'll lay the points. The Cowboys are 2-2, having won twice at home and lost twice on the road. The two road games have seen them score just 21 pts total while they're averaging 23 PPG at home. It also helped to play two bad teams, the Lions and Giants, at home. Last week, they blew a 10-pt fourth quarter lead against the Lions, only to rally for a GW FG on the final play. We know the Cowboys can run the ball effectively (145 YPG) but their passing attack just might be the worst in the league. From a personnel standpoint, I can't think of a worse receiving corps. Going back to last year, there's been just one time in the last six road games that the Cowboys have topped 212 yards passing. Traditionally, this has been a shaky spot for Houston as they are 0-6 ATS the L3 seasons off a division win. But I have a hard time forgetting they were up 28-10 last week on the Colts before letting Andrew Luck make things interesting. The defense is top 10 in the league against the run, allowing fewer than 100 YPG, so they match up well w/ the Dallas offense. The Cowboys had a much more favorable matchup last week against the Lions, whose defense is much better against the pass than they are the run. Note that the Cowboys' defense has previously had trouble w/ two dual-threat type QBs this year (Cam Newton and Russell Wilson). Houston's DeShaun Watson presents similar problems and I'm projecting him to have a big game here. Look for the Texans to "show up" big in this Sunday night home game. 10* Houston |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 126 h 49 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:25 ET): As much of a decline as the Seahawks are in, I have to say that them getting so many points at home still looks odd. Granted, it's the Rams coming to town and I don't think there's any disputing that they are the best team in football right now. LA did humiliate the Seahawks up here in Seattle last season, 42-7, but I do not see the same thing happening again this time. I realize that the 'Hawks may be at the nadir of the Pete Carroll era right now w/ the loss of Earl Thomas for the rest of the season. But this is still a prideful team that will show up to play at home. They definitely won't be lacking for motivation this week. The last time Seattle was a home dog of seven points or more was the infamous playoff win against the Saints where Marshawn Lynch made the Earth shake. The Rams are 4-0 straight up and their ATS record depends on what number you are using for last Thursday's game against Minnesota. Cover, no-cover, or push, the Rams offense was certainly outstanding in that game, totaling 38 pts and 556 total yards against a Mike Zimmer defense. The Rams have scored 33 or more points in every game so far with seven points being their closest margin of victory. I will concede that they are clearly the best team in football right now. But this spread is still too high. Laying a field goal I could understand, but not a full touchdown. I believe this number is an overreaction to the Thomas injury and the fact the Rams just played on national television. Seattle has won B2B games, by the way. Yes, the teams they beat were Dallas and Arizona. But the defense allowed just 30 pts total in those two wins. Three of the Seahawks' four games this year have been decided by a TD or less and they've only gotten to play once at home. (The 24-13 win over Dallas). Over the L3 weeks, the defense is allowing an average of just 279 YPG. Yes, they now must deal w/ losing the irreplaceable Thomas. But the loss of him alone will not cause this defense to fall off a cliff. On offense, they still have QB Russell Wilson to make plays. This is my favorite play of the week. Take the points. 10* Seattle |
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10-07-18 | Cardinals +4 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:25 ET): The Cardinals are the last winless team in the league, so we know they'll be desperate for a win this week in San Francisco. Each of the last two weeks have seen the Cards come oh so close - only to fail by a field goal or less both times. Two weeks ago at home, they led Chicago much of the way before ultimately coming up short in a 16-14 loss. It was a similar story LW vs. Seattle where they lost on a field goal as time expired, 20-17. The Seattle game marked the 1st career start for QB Josh Rosen and while the numbers seem to indicate a rather pedestrian performance (180 yds, 1 TD), he was plagued by drops from his receivers. I counted five. Had those been completions, Rosen would have been close to a 300-yd game and Arizona probably would have won. To me, there's no disputing that the Cardinals are a more dynamic offensive team w/ the rookie Rosen under center. Arizona is the winless team, but San Francisco might have more issues heading into Week 5, namely on the injury front. You probably are well aware that QB Jimmy Garoppolo has been lost for the season. Well, there are issues at all the skill positions as RB Matt Brieda is dealing with a shoulder injury and both starting WRs - Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin - are battling their own respective injuries. Pettis has been ruled out while Breida and Goodwin are listed as questionable. Speaking of questionable, the Niners could be w/o as many as THREE starters along the offensive line! Joe Staley, Weston Richburg and Mike McGlinchey. Those "only" the center and both starting tackles. Somehow, with CJ Beathard starting at QB last week, the team put up a game effort in a 29-27 loss to the Chargers. But I would not expect that to continue. The 49ers have lost six straight to the Cardinals, getting swept in the season series each of the last three years. Then there's this ... they are 0-11-2 ATS the L13 times they have been a home favorite. It's a streak that dates back to December of 2013. I understand Arizona deserves to be a dog in this spot, but I'd have a real hard time laying points w/ this 49ers team starting Beathard at QB w/ few weapons at his disposal and an injury-ravaged offensive line. With Rosen now in the fold, the Cardinals go into this game w/ the edge at QB and they're getting points. The Rams are the only offense to score more than 24 points on the Arizona defense. San Francisco had a defensive TD last week, so their 27 pts scored was a little misleading. I'm taking the points here. 8* Arizona |
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10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Now I know what you're thinking. "Not Buffalo!" The Bills, a playoff team year ago, have fallen both hard and fast. Considering the unanimous view that they are one of the two worst teams in football (Arizona), it's almost crazy to think that this was a playoff team a year ago. Last week was another clunker as they were shutout in Green Bay, 22-0. It was the second game this year that the Bills' offense was held to three points or less AND gained less than 155 total yards. But, hey, they do have that stunning 27-6 win at Minnesota in Week 3. They also have something in common w/ this week's opponent, Tennessee. Neither team has been favored in a single game this season. Tennessee is a surprising 3-1. I say "surprising" because they haven't been favored a single time. After opening the season w/ a road loss to Miami (two long rain delays), they've won three straight by a total of nine points. Every win has been by exactly a field goal including 26-23 last week as a home dog over the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. They've also beaten Jacksonville on the road, 9-6. Note that last week's win did come in overtime and the Titans were outgained. They actually gave up a FG to start OT before answering w/ a TD. Despite their 3-1 SU record, Tennessee is being outgained on a per play basis and by about 50 YPG. The offense was held under 300 total yds by both Houston & Jacksonville. I would not trust this team as a road favorite yet, especially this many points. Playing at home, I think that the Bills defense can keep them in this one throughout. They rank in the top half of the league in yards allowed and top 10 in yards per play. Remember that Titans QB Marcus Mariota has been battling a nerve issue in his elbow. Tennessee easily could have lost last week as they were down 14 in the second half. Had they lost that game, my guess is we'd be viewing this team a whole lot differently right now. The Titans are just 11-21 ATS their past 32 road games. Having not won a single game by more than a field goal this year, I'm not about to lay almost a touchdown w/ them on the road, even against Buffalo. The number is now inflated. Take the points. 8* Buffalo |
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10-06-18 | Colorado State v. San Jose State +3 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -109 | 126 h 36 m | Show |
8* San Jose State (10:30 ET): You have to feel for San Jose State, who remains winless after a 5 OT loss here at home to Hawaii last weekend. But the Spartans were still a winner for me in that thrilling game as they easily covered the number. In fact, they led outright most of the way, which is what made the final result so disheartening for them. At no point were they "out of the money" as double digit dogs. While that kind of result can have a negative effect on a team, in this instance I think it will be galvanizing. This is a team that feels they should have won last week and remains desperate for that elusive first victory. I think they have an excellent shot at getting it this week against a Colorado State team that is much worse than you think. I'll take the points w/ SJSU again. SJSU led Hawaii by as much as two touchdowns in the 1st half and was still up 31-24 late in the 4th quarter. They gave up a 12-play, 75-yard drive to send the game into OT, but by that point the cover was already assured. Still, I wanted the outright win. They answered Hawaii's touchdown in the 1st OT w/ one of their own and then the 2nd and 3rd OTs both saw each team miss a field goal. After missing their chance to win in the 3rd OT, the Spartans took the lead in the 4th OT by actually making a field goal. But Hawaii answered w/ one of their own, then made another in OT #5. Appropriately perhaps, the game ended on a missed FG by San Jose State. A brutal loss for sure, but after coming so close, the Spartans will be ready to go this week. They've already played both Washington State and Oregon, so this game is a significant drop in class for them. Colorado State has gone 7-6 SU each of the last three seasons and has been to a bowl each of the last five years. But this year's squad has had its issues right off the bat. HC Mike Bobo was dealing with health issues and the roster is the least experienced in the entire country. This is a bottom 10 team in the country, in my opinion, and they should not be favored on the road here. In retrospect, it was an insane that they opened the season as 17-point favorites at Hawaii, a game they lost 43-34. (I had Hawaii). After getting blown out by in-state rival Colorado (45-13), many thought the Rams had turned the corner when they upset Arkansas (at home), but we didn't know how bad the Hogs were at that time. The Rams' next SEC opponent (Florida) wasn't as kind as the final was 48-10 in Gainesville, but the following week was far more embarrassing w/ CSU losing outright at home to FCS Illinois State, 35-19. Yes, they've had a week off to recoup, but the situation isn't enough to overlook a clearly inflated line this week. The Rams offense has been held under 20 pts in three of five games so far. San Jose State has revenge for a 42-14 loss in Ft. Collins last year. 8* San Jose State |
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10-06-18 | Auburn v. Mississippi State +3.5 | Top | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 41 m | Show |
8* Mississippi State (7:30 ET): What was looking like a promising season in Starkville is now close to going off the rails w/ a disappointing 0-2 start in SEC play. Three weeks ago, I had no qualms about laying a massive number w/ the Bulldogs (nearly five touchdowns) against Louisiana and was rewarded w/ a 56-10 win. That result had them at 3-0 straight up and against the spread w/ an avg MOV of 41.3 PPG. I thought a case could be made this was team on track to be Top 10 in the country, but they've unfathomably been held to just 13 points in two weeks and less than 200 YPG. Now they have to take a visit from an Auburn team that is in fact top 10 in the country. But I happen to think MSU is a tremendous value as a home dog, a role they almost certainly would NOT have been in this spot were this game played just two weeks ago. Take the points. Auburn has already played two Top 10 opponents and split the pair. They opened the season w/ a 21-16 "neutral site" game vs. Washington (had significant crowd support edge in Atlanta), but were actually a little lucky to win that game thanks to two costly UW turnovers. Two weeks later, they lost at the gun to LSU, 22-21 as 10-pt home favorites. That one shocked many. Despite two subsequent double digit victories - over Arkansas and Southern Miss - I really haven't been impressed w/ Auburn in either game. Even though they beat Arkansas 34-3, they were actually outgained 290-225! Scoring 34 points on 225 total yards is not easy to do and that win was almost exclusively owed to the special teams. Last week vs. Southern Miss saw a long weather delay and was still a one-score game late into the 4Q. I came into the year thinking Auburn was due to regress. That might sound crazy considering they actually lost four games last year despite also holding wins over both Alabama and Georgia (two teams that played for Nat'l Title). Mississippi State is a team I had improving and that certainly looked smart after three games. I'm not sure what has gone wrong the last two weeks, but it's hard for me to see this team losing B2B weeks in Starkville. This is also double revenge spot as they've been humbled each of the last two years by Auburn. For Auburn, this is their first "true" road game. While 15-1 SU their L16 games at Jordan-Hare (7-0 LY), the Tigers have gone 6-7 SU away from home since the start of 2016. I still believe in Nick Fitzgerald and Mississippi State. 8* Mississippi State |
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10-06-18 | Arizona State +3 v. Colorado | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 6 m | Show |
8* Arizona State (4:00 ET): The Herm Edwards hire at Arizona State was critically panned initially, but then quickly required a reassessment when the Sun Devils upset Michigan State back in Week 2. I was on ASU in that spot and came away impressed w/ just how well this outfit was coached. Some of the enthusiasm has since waned as the team went on to drop B2B games at San Diego State and Washington. But those were two quality foes, both on the road. Things got back in track LW in Tempe w/ a dominant 52-24 win over perennial Pac 12 doormat Oregon State. One thing is for sure and that's Coach Herm is beating the oddsmakers' expectations w/ the team now 4-1 ATS. I love them as a dog this week at unbeaten Colorado, who is due to drop a game. Take the points. Colorado is one of 14 teams still w/o a blemish in the loss column. They are the only Pac 12 team still unbeaten, which I don't think anyone expected. Remember that two years ago Mike MacIntyre (a fine head coach) led this team to a 10-4 SU record and Pac 12 South title. They predictably dropped last year, but a 5-7 record was definitely worse than what the faithful in Boulder were looking for. But just as predictable as LY's decline is this year's improvement. They are 4-0 w/ one outright upset at Nebraska where they clearly benefited from an injury to the opposing QB. We also had no idea how bad the Cornhuskers were at the time. Still, the Buffs needed two TDs in the final minute to win 33-28 in Lincoln, a game they were outgained 565-395, but also lucky to be +3 in turnovers. Colorado has yet to beat a team currently ranked inside my top 90! Their two Power 5 wins - Nebraska and UCLA - are two of the weakest you can have. Their other wins are against Colorado State (bottom 10 FBS team this year) and New Hampshire, a FCS school. Last Friday against UCLA saw them blow up what was a close game going into the 2nd half w/ four straight TDs. That won't be happening here against a Sun Devils' defense giving up less than 20 PPG. ASU has won 8 of the 9 matchups as Pac 12 rivals, including 41-30 LY in Tempe as they outscored CU 24-3 in the 4th quarter. Yes, the Buffs are a better team in 2018, but so are the Sun Devils. Last week saw RB Eno Benjamin become the 1st player to top 300 yds rushing in a game this season at the FBS level, 185 of them coming by halftime. The last FBS team to give up 300 yds rushing to an individual was Colorado last year, against Arizona. 8* Arizona State |
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10-06-18 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -12.5 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -104 | 119 h 47 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (3:30 ET): Each of Miami's last two games have been pretty misleading finals. They've won both handily, but the one that was a blowout was probably closer than the score indicates while it was vice versa with the other. Two weeks ago against Florida International was a truly dominant performance. At one point, total yardage was 397-10 in the Canes' favor and they led 31-0 late into the 4Q. But then FIU decided to go on a late scoring frenzy w/ 17 unanswered points against Miami's backups. In the end, it was still a 488-187 edge in total yardage. Off that performance, I laid the big number w/ "The U" last Thursday against North Carolina. Forcing six turnovers was huge in a game where total yardage was basically even and Miami had only 14 first downs. The defense scored THREE touchdowns and it was an easy win and cover (47-10 final score). Florida State squeaked out win last Saturday at Louisville, but this team remains a mess. They are now 3-2 SU in Willie Taggert's first year here, but probably should be 1-4! They had to rally late to beat FCS Samford 36-26 and that win probably doesn't happen if not for forcing five turnovers. Last week, they escaped L'ville w/ a win only because Bobby Petrino failed to run the clock out properly. The Cardinals had a three-point lead and were on the FSU 21-yard line w/ less than two minutes to go. Incredibly, Petrino called a pass play and the Seminoles intercepted, leading to the GW TD. For me, it didn't matter as I still cashed Louisville plus the points. But it should have been an outright win. FSU's other two ACC games - vs. Va Tech and Syracuse - have seen them get outscored 54-10. They are now 0-10-1 ATS in conference play since the start of last season. Looking back through this heated rivalry, I'm not sure the last time Miami has has such a "golden" opportunity to "lay the wood" to FSU as they do here. Last year, they won in Tallahassee, ending a seven-game series losing streak. This game is in Coral Gables where they've won their last 12 regular season games. The majority of these FSU-Miami games have been close (14 of the last 16 decided by 7 pts or less). But this spread isn't nearly high enough considering how good Miami has looked since the loss to LSU. That loss looked bad at the time, but note they actually held the Tigers under 300 total yds! Florida State has looked really "iffy" under Taggert and the books have been slow to react as to just how mediocre this program is right now. This is their second straight week playing on the road, off a lucky, down to the wire win. This is Miami's third straight home game and they've had two extra days to prepare. 10* Miami FL |
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10-06-18 | LSU v. Florida +3 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show |
8* Florida (3:30 ET): Back on 9.8, when Florida lost at home to Kentucky, there was still a lot we didn't know. For starters, who had any idea that UK would rise up to the top 15 of the rankings? It also appears as if it was largely a mistake to write off the Gators. They've subsequently won three straight games, two by double digits and then an upset of Mississippi State last week. That upset caught many off-guard seeing as it was HC Dan Mullen's first venture back to Starkville since leaving that school high and dry. The Gators' fine defense held the Bulldogs to just 202 total yards in 13-6 win as seven-point road underdogs. The SEC gauntlet has undefeated LSU coming to Gainesville this week and I believe Mullen's Gators are poised to possibly hand them their 1st loss. LSU HC Ed Orgeron entered 2018 on the hot seat. I'll admit that I thought LSU was heading for a "down year" in the SEC West. Instead, it's been anything but. The 5-0 start began w/ an upset of Miami, 33-17, where I was on the wrong side. The Bayou Bengals have also gone to Auburn and pulled a 22-21 upset as 10-pt underdogs. Few teams in the country can claim to own two wins that impressive. But the offense was held to less than 300 yds by a Miami defense that isn't as strong as the one they'll go up against here. The Auburn game saw them down double digits in the 2nd half. Let's also not forget that it was a three-point game at home vs. LA Tech in the fourth quarter (total yds even despite 38-21 final). Last week was an impressive win over Ole Miss and I suspect that has inflated this number. Most of the recent LSU-Florida games have been close affairs. LSU has won 6 of 8, including 3 of the last 4 w/ all four decided by a TD or less. In a scheduling quirk, this will be the second straight year having to go to Gainesville. (In 2016, Hurricane Matthew caused the game to be moved to Baton Rouge). Florida lost LY by a single point, 17-16, as a one-point favorite. LSU came into that game unranked and off an embarrassing loss the week prior to Troy. It's a much different situation this year and the Gators are a much better (and more experienced) team. It's not often the home team is a dog in The Swamp and LSU is 0-2 ATS the L2 times it has been a road fave of a field goal or less. Take the points. 8* Florida |
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10-06-18 | Kansas +28.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 22-38 | Win | 100 | 115 h 7 m | Show |
10* Kansas (12:00 ET): West Virginia, now ranked in the top 10 nationally, is probably deserving of being called the second best team in the Big 12 (behind only Oklahoma). But though they're 4-0 SU/ATS, I'm still not sure that we know that much about the Mountaineers. Their first three victories of the season - over Tennessee, Youngstown State and Kansas State - all came against bad teams. They did go to Texas Tech last week and pick up a big 42-34 win, but the final was a bit misleading and I'm not just saying that because I had the other side. WVU did jump out to an early 28-10 lead in Lubbock, but were also +3 in turnovers against a Red Raiders team down to its THIRD QB of the season. Total yardage was basically even as the WVU offense was shutout in the 2H. Kansas is obviously recognized as the worst team in the Big XII. But the Jayhawks have already exceeded LY's win total! This season did not get off to a great start w/ a home loss to FCS Nicholls State. But HC David Beatty rallied the troops for rare B2B wins, beating Central Michigan and Rutgers by a combined 65 points. They've since gone 0-2 in conference play, losing to Baylor and Oklahoma State by 19.5 PPG. For most teams, that would be very disappointing. But for the Jayhawks, it actually represents progress! Last year's team was outgained by 193 YPG and outscored by 32 PPG. The improvement the 2018 team has shown thus far really shouldn't be that surprising. After all, this team entered this year as the most experienced in the entire country! I wouldn't go so far to say Kansas has given WVU "trouble" the last two years. But they have been able to at least hang around and make things interesting from an ATS perspective. Here in Morgantown, two years ago, they covered as 34-point dogs (final score: 48-21). Last year was a 56-34 game that fell right on the number. However, it was actually 42-34 before WVU scored two TD's in the final five minutes. There is no doubt in my mind that the Jayhawks are much improved in 2018. Meanwhile, maybe it's fair to call WVU the 2nd best team in the conference, but I believe they're currently overvalued from a national perspective. As an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points, KU is a solid 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons. They were only down 13 late in the 4Q vs. OK State last week. 10* Kansas |
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10-05-18 | Utah State +3 v. BYU | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 36 m | Show |
10* Utah State (9:00 ET): Utah State is quietly having itself a solid season. Their only loss came in the season opener, at Michigan State, and they probably should have won that game. They led Sparty going into the final two minutes before giving up a GW TD. Since then, it's been all double digit wins for the Aggies as they've rolled New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech and Air Force. I had them against Air Force two weeks ago and though they pushed for me (was an ATS win for some), it was still an impressive win in Logan. They were up 21 in the second half before allowing the Falcons in through the backdoor (there was a defensive TD involved). Now USU is off a bye as they take on BYU in the annual battle for the "Old Wagon Wheel." I love the underdog in this year's installment. No one is going to confuse Utah State's schedule w/ BYU's, but the Cougars' status as an independent may be starting to take a toll. Everyone remembers the memorable upset of Wisconsin three weeks ago, but they looked gassed LW in a 35-7 loss at Washington. The offense was shutout in that game until the closing minutes and held to only 194 total yards and seven first downs. Now, Utah State is nowhere near as good as Washington is defensively. But what the Aggies can do is put points on the board (they average 51.5 per game). I don't think BYU is going to be able to trade scores in this Friday night matchup. Also, this is the sixth straight game w/o a bye, not a huge deal (many teams in same spot this week) until you consider they've had to alternate home & road every week. Utah State beat BYU by 16 last season, a rare win in this rivalry. Yes, that game was at home and BYU wasn't very good. But USU also looks to be much improved for 2018, if not moreso than BYU. Coming off the bye is huge for the Aggies, especially considering BYU is on a short week after a tough loss in primetime. It's rare for Utah State to have a legit shot at winning this rivalry game in B2B years. I think they enter more focused as BYU has already played three Pac 12 teams and Wisconsin. Take the points. 10* Utah State |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
8* Under Colts/Patriots (8:20 ET): As per usual, the demise of the Patriots was greatly exaggerated. In a rare spot off B2B losses, they absolutely tattooed the unbeaten Dolphins last week, winning 38-7 as a 6.5-pt home favorite. All now seems well in Foxboro where the Pats are playing again this week, Thursday night hosting the 1-3 Colts. Indy made it look interesting LW vs. Houston, but the reality was they were down 28-10 in the second half of that game. Andrew Luck was able to force OT, but it was not to be as HC Frank Reich gambled and came up short on a 4th down call, which then set up the game winning field goal for the Texans. Can you believe the last time the Colts beat the Patriots was 2009? That's unlikely to change here, but the large pointspread had dissuaded me from making a play on a side. The Colts have ruled out seven players for this game. The most notable among them is WR T.Y. Hilton, leaving Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers as the team's starting receivers. Yikes. The offense did put up plenty of points last week and Luck threw for 437 yards (on 62 attempts!), but don't look for that to happen here. The previous two weeks saw the Colts gain just 281 and 209 total yards. Notable is that both of those were road games, just as this one is. The Under is a perfect 6-0 in the Colts' last six road games, not to mention a perfect 5-0 when they enter in off an ATS loss. Bottom line is that I expect very little from the Colts offense here. Theoretically, Tom Brady should be able to move the ball at will against this Indy defense. But he may not have Rob Gronkowski to throw the ball to. Gronk is listed as questionable here due to an ankle injury after leaving in the third quarter vs. Miami. He has been absent from practice this week, though the injury is not considered that serious. Julian Edelman is expected back from suspension and a possible Gronk-Edelman pairing would be huge for Brady. Still, this offense is only two weeks removed from a disastrous effort in Detroit (209 total yards) and it won't take many points to win this one. I look for the scoring to slow down late and for the Under to come in. The Under is 4-1 in the Patriots' last five Thursday games. 8* Under Colts/Patriots |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:15 ET): It's a new quarterback, yet the same success for Kansas City, who has raced out to a 3-0 start behind the sensational QB play of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the first QB in NFL history to throw at least 13 touchdown passes in the first three games of a season. Under HC Andy Reid, the games that the Chiefs have enjoyed the most success have been those against divisional foes. They are a ridiculous 17-2 SU vs. the rest of the AFC West the last four years, including a 38-28 win over the Chargers back in Week 1! That includes five straight wins (and covers) over Monday's opponent, the Denver Broncos. But with the high-flying start, I believe KC is a little overvalued in being asked to lay this many points on the road. Take the home dog on MNF! As exciting as Mahomes and the rest of the KC offense has been, the team's defense has actually been very bad. They are giving up 30.7 points per game. That hasn't caught up w/ them yet - because the offense has been so good - but eventually, it will. That scoring average by the Chiefs defense ranks 30th in the league right now and they are also 32nd (i.e. dead last) in terms of yards allowed. The Denver offense may not be as impressive on paper, but it's a group I have projected to improve in 2018. On the road last week in Baltimore, the Broncos didn't manage much (only 14 pts). But in the first two weeks, both here at home, they scored 27 and 20 points. Case Keenum may not evoke memories of the Peyton Manning era here in Mile High, but he's far more competent than what the team had under center last season. Denver was also hurt last week when RB Phillip Lindsay was ejected for throwing a punch. It's defending the pass where Kansas City has been more susceptible so far this season, but they also gave up 178 yds rushing LW to the 49ers. Really, you have to think the Chiefs' numbers at stopping the run would be far worse if not for the fact they've gotten off to a great start offensively in all three games. It is imperative for the Broncos not to fall behind early in this game. Playing at home, in primetime, I don't think they will. Their defense has yet to allow 300 yards passing or 100 yards rushing in any game and if they keep that streak alive, then they'll at least cover here. 10* Denver |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 57 h 34 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Contrary to popular belief, one win will not cure all that ails the Steelers as this is a team w/ a lot of deficiencies - on both sides of the ball. I took them Monday night as it was not only a desperate spot at 0-2, but they were also facing a Bucs team w/ an overhyped QB. It's a more familiar foe in primetime this week, rival Baltimore, and the one less day to prepare does the Black & Gold no favors here. The Ravens have outgained all three opponents so far and seem to be a lot better on offense this season. They are averaging 32.3 points and 379 yards per game. Also, the Ravens have owned this rivalry - at the betting window, at least - going 5-1-1 ATS the past seven meetings. Five of the last six have been one score games. This has me on the dog Sunday night. The Ravens are allowing a league-low 273 YPG through three weeks. Thus, they have outgained those same foes by over 100 YPG. They have a point differential of +46, which is the best in the AFC. Now that's all still skewed because they got to play the Bills in Week 1, but aside from digging an early hole too deep to climb out of in Week 2 vs. Cincinnati (Thurs night road game), Baltimore has looked very good this season. Certainly, their league-leading defense will be tested by a Pittsburgh offense that ranks third in yards per game. But it's a Steelers' offense that is still w/o RB LeVeon Bell. Two weeks ago, the Steelers scored 37 points, had 475 total yards, didn't turn the ball over once and still lost - at home. They are not going to be able to put up those kind of offensive numbers this week. The short week hasn't really bothered Mike Tomlin's team in the past as they're 3-0 SU the L3 seasons after playing on MNF. But they're also just 1-2 ATS. The Steelers were very lucky Monday night in Tampa as the Bucs turned the ball over four times. They picked off QB Ryan Fitzpatrick three times in the 1st half, returning one of them for a defensive score. The offense was actually shutout in the 2nd half and nearly blew a 20-pt halftime lead. Meanwhile, Baltimore looked good LW vs. Denver, executing well on both sides of the ball. The defense shut the Broncos out completely in the final three quarters and QB Joe Flacco completed 25 of 40 pass attempts. At the end of the day, I'm just not that high on this Steelers team this year. 8* Baltimore |
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09-30-18 | Texans +2 v. Colts | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 94 h 33 m | Show |
10* Houston (1:00 ET): The Texans are winless - both straight up and against the number - at 0-3 and desperate for a win this week at Indianapolis. Needless to say, this is about as "must-win" as it gets. Going back to last season, the team has now lost nine straight in the regular season and 12 of its last 13. HC Bill O'Brien no longer has the "excuse" of not having a healthy DeShaun Watson at QB. Another loss this week, to the division rival Colts, and O'Brien's "seat" will be most definitely be the hottest in the league. So needless to say, Houston won't be lacking for motivation in Week 4, nevermind the fact they have double revenge from LY against Indianapolis. I think the Texans are better than what they've shown so far and I'll take them in this spot. Take the points. Indianapolis is 1-2 SU and coming off a loss to the Eagles. Despite covering each of the last two games, they've been outgained both times. In a 21-9 win over Washington in Week 2, they had the three scoring drives, all of which were 75 yds or longer. But on all other drives in the game, they gained just 56 total yards. Talk about opportunistic. Last week's game in Philly was not as close as the final score of 20-16 indicates as the Colts were outgained 379-209 and were lucky that Eagles QB Carson Wentz turned it over twice inside his own 17-yard line. Even w/ the excellent field position, the Colts' offense couldn't do much, settling only for a pair of field goals. But those two kicks were the difference between covering and not covering. The Colts offense had only 14 first downs in the game and possessed the ball for less than 20 minutes. QB Andrew Luck is averaging a career-low 5.3 yards per pass attempt so far. Meanwhile, the Houston offense has performed better than you might think, averaging 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 8th in the league. All three losses have been by 7 pts or less. They outgained both the Titans (437-283) and Giants (427-329), yet didn't even cover either time. While the Colts did beat the Texans both times LY, note they were fortunate to avoid Watson both times. Watson has established a strong rapport w/ WRs Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins. They should put plenty of points on the board against a bad Colts defense. 10* Houston |
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09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons UNDER 52 | Top | 37-36 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 33 m | Show |
10* Under Bengals/Falcons (1:00 ET): As I expressed last week, the Bengals have really surprised me with their amount of scoring this year. This is an offense I had projected to suffer a decline in scoring from last year when they ranked dead last in the league in yards per game. Yet, they came out and scored 34 pts each of the first two weeks. They did decline some in Week 3, suffering their first loss of the season, 31-21 at Carolina. Ironically though, they gained more total yards in that game (396) than they did in either of their two wins. A -4 turnover margin is what killed them against the Panthers. Now they get set to face another NFC South team on the road, Atlanta, who has its own issues right now, namely injuries. I'm going to roll again w/ the Under on the Bengals. Admittedly, Atlanta's defense is facing some major issues right now, all because of injuries. Only three weeks are in the books and already three defensive starters have been lost to injury. Linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal went down in Week 1. Now the team's other starting safety, Ricardo Allen, will be joining them on the sidelines after tearing his Achilles in last week's loss to New Orleans. That game w/ the Saints was a real shootout, not decided until overtime, with the final score being 43-37. That has played a significant role in this week's total being so high. I realize there's a risk involved taking the Falcons Under w/ so many injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I took them Over two weeks ago hosting Carolina and that was a winner. But the number was also much lower. Want some perspective on just how high this total is for a Bengals game? Since 2010, the team has played only ONE game w/ a total north of 50 pts. That was Week 11 of the 2014 season at New Orleans and the game easily stayed Under as it was a 27-10 final (in favor of the Saints). The Bengals have a significant injury of their own that they are monitoring, that being the groin of WR AJ Green. If Green (who did not finish the Carolina game) is out, then that severely limits the Bengals' ability to exploit the Falcons' wounded secondary. Speaking of offensive injuries, Falcons' RB Devonta Freeman's status also remains unclear. I just look at this total as being too high, despite what we've seen from the respective offenses thus far. 10* Under Bengals/Falcons |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Bears aren't the most impressive 2-1 league, but given how the John Fox era went, they'll take this start under 1st year HC Matt Nagy. It may surprise some to find the Monsters of the Midway favored for a third straight week here. After suffering the heartbreaking loss to Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay in Week 1 (still covered), I took them again in Week 2 in a Monday night win over Seattle. Last week, I said they had no business being a road favorite, even against Arizona. They may have come back to win that game, 16-14, but never were "in the money" except for a brief moment at the end (when a pick-six was overturned). This week, they're back in the Windy City, laying a small number and I like the spot a lot. Lay the points! Tampa Bay is off a loss, on a short week and playing on the road. They also have a QB decision looming. Jameis Winston isn't suspended anymore, meaning the pressure is back on Ryan Fitzpatrick. Through two weeks of the season, this looked like an easy decision for Bucs HC Dirk Koetter. Fitzpatrick was playing at a "MVP level" (two 400+ yard games w/ 4 TD passes!) and the team was 2-0 SU. But, predictably, Fitzpatrick came back down to Earth Monday against the Steelers. Yes, it was a 4th straight 400+ yd game, but he threw three costly interceptions in the 1st half and the Bucs lost 30-27 at home. They were down 30-10 at half and 30-13 entering the 4th quarter. Now Koetter is "mum" on who will start this game and I think it's going to turn into a mess. I'd be more concerned about the Bucs' game of secrecy if not for the fact the Bears have an outstanding defense. Admittedly, they have faced weak offenses each of the L2 weeks. But they rank 5th in total defense and 8th in scoring, giving them a huge edge over the Bucs' weak stop unit, which ranks 31st and 29th respectively. Chicago's pass rush should be a major factor in this game. On offense, QB Mitchell Trubisky remains a "work in progress," but this will be the weakest defense he's faced all year. Though it hasn't been pretty, the Bears probably should be 3-0 and remember I am higher on this team than most. They're not getting enough respect here at home. 8* Chicago |
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09-29-18 | Oregon v. California +3 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
8* California (10:30 ET): What an absolutely horrendous spot this is for Oregon as they are laying points on the road (against a rested foe), one week removed from literally giving the game away against Stanford. As you've probably seen by now, the Ducks blew a 10-point lead in the closing minutes last week and lost in overtime. They were up by a touchdown, with the ball and just 50 seconds to go, when RB CJ Verdell fumbled in a situation the Ducks should have just been kneeling. Stanford then drove for a game-tying FG before winning in OT. Now here comes Cal, waiting in the wings, off its bye. The Bears certainly won't be lacking for motivation Saturday night as they are eager to overturn a 1-8 SU run in this Pac 12 rivalry. Cal has already beaten BYU on the road. Take the points. If you can believe it, Oregon's loss to Stanford gets even worse with further inspection. They led 24-7 in the third quarter and appeared on the verge of making it 31-7 when a TD was overturned (incorrectly). After the TD was overturned, they fumbled and it was returned for a Stanford TD in a dramatic 14-pt swing. That was clearly the turning point in the game. The Ducks would score only one TD the rest of the game and even though they still finished w/ a 524-398 edge in total yds, it did not matter because of a -3 turnover differential. It is going to be extraordinarily difficult for the Ducks to get off the mat after that kind of setback, especially now having to lay points on the road. Oregon's only wins this year came against Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State. This is their 1st road game. They didn't come close to matching the expectations against San Jose State where they were massive 42.5-pt favorites (won 35-22). Cal has already beaten North Carolina and BYU. Like I've stated twice before, they are rested coming into this game and that's a big time advantage. Bears HC Justin Wilcox used to be an assistant under both Chris Petersen and Steve Sarkisian, both of whom had outstanding ATS records w/ an extra week of prep. Last year, Cal had one bye and it led to a cover against rival Stanford. This year's Cal squad is far better w/ 18 starters back, 10 on offense, and I believe they're set for the biggest win yet under HC Wilcox. Take the points. 8* California |
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09-29-18 | BYU v. Washington OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -113 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
8* Over BYU/Washington (8:30 ET): Both of these teams are 4-0 Under on the season. As a result, we have a lower than expected total. Now, has the Washington offense performed up to expectations thus far? Certainly not. This is a team that has averaged 36.2 and 41.8 points per game the last two seasons and brought eight starters back, including senior QB Jake Browning. I think it's only a matter of time before the Huskies start to hit their stride though. This is actually a top 25 battle now w/ BYU having "snuck" into the rankings on the strength of their stunning upset in Madison. While neither defense has given up more than 23 points in any game this season, I think at least one will get there Saturday (most likely Washington) and I'm on the Over. BYU went 4-9 last season. That's pretty atypical in Provo, so a bounce back season was all but assured. I took the Cougars in the opener when they went to Arizona and won outright, as double digit dogs, 28-23. They followed that up w/ a narrow home loss to Cal. Then came the game that caught everyone off-guard, the 24-23 upset of Wisconsin in Madison. I seriously doubt that the Cougars are going to be able to pull a second upset of a Top 10 team on the road, in less than three weeks. As stingy as the defense has looked, they basically gave up 400 total yards to both Cal and Wisconsin. Despite its rather meager PPG average (27.2), Washington has still averaged 432 YPG this season at 6.4 yards per play. They will be able to move the ball on this BYU defense. Something to keep in mind w/ this total is that two of each team's four games would have gone Over it. Now Washington has allowed only 30 pts in three games since losing the opener to Auburn. But this is the toughest opponent they've played since the Tigers. It was a 14-10 game after one quarter LW vs. Arizona State. The Huskies also gave up 164 yards rushing, which is notable because of the offensive scheme BYU is going with this season. The Cougars have three different players averaging at least five yards per carry as they've gotten quite creative w/ their run schemes. They ran for almost 200 yards on Wisconsin despite just 28 carries. I say both offenses move the ball better than expected and as result we have more scoring than expected. The Over is 9-4-1 when UW is off an ATS loss and they did not cover LW vs ASU as they were 18-pt favorites. 8* Over BYU/Washington |
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09-29-18 | Hawaii v. San Jose State +11.5 | Top | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 76 h 35 m | Show |
10* San Jose State (7:00 ET): This is as good a spot as I've seen all month. Hawaii will be laying points on the mainland for just the fifth time in the last eight seasons. So far, they have gone 0-4 ATS w/ a pair of outright losses. Now this time they'll be against San Jose State, who is probably one of the weakest teams in FBS, but nearly two scores is way too much. Throw in the fact that San Jose State is off a bye and you have a great potential ambush spot. My numbers indicate that this number should be closer to a field goal than two touchdowns. That's a lot of value for a SJSU squad still hungry for its first win of the season. Note that Hawaii is just 1-8 ATS when favored the L3 seasons, including an 0-2 mark here in 2018. I'll be taking the points and an outright upset is not out of the realm of possibility! Now you have to tip your cap to Hawaii for the way it has started its season. They come into this game w/ a 4-1 record, including two monster upsets of their own. The first two games of the season saw them pull upsets against Colorado State and Navy, both coming as double digit underdogs. I took the Warriors in that Colorado State game and was stunned at just how easy they made it look. The win over Navy came in Honolulu and since then the team has been well traveled. The pointspread caught up w/ them in a 43-27 home win over Rice where they were 17-pt favorites. Then they had to fly all the way out to the opposite coast for a Noon ET kickoff against Army. They played better than expected there, but still lost 28-21. It was back to the island LW for a 42-21 win over FCS Duquesne where they actually trailed early, 14-0. This week isn't a long trip by Hawaii standards, but the fact remains the team is still only 6-32 SU in road games sincr 2012. San Jose State's season opened w/ a loss to FCS team, Cal Davis. Not trying to sugarcoat that one, but Cal Davis did play Stanford tough two weeks ago. Then came two predictable losses (both on the road) to Pac 12 schools, Washington State and Oregon. The Spartans were actually massive 42.5-pt dogs against Oregon and easily covered in a 35-22 loss. So it seems as if the lack of respect this squad is getting can really work to our benefit. If they can stay within two scores of Oregon on the road, then they certainly can do the same against road weary Hawaii. The bye week is key for SJSU, who were "only" 17-pt dogs when they traveled to Hawaii LY and lost 37-26. They actually have double revenge as they lost 34-17 here at home two years ago. Hawaii is getting way too much respect here and this line is too high. 10* San Jose State |
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09-29-18 | Florida State v. Louisville +7 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 6 m | Show |
8* Louisville (3:30 ET): It has not been a great start to 2018 for Bobby Petrino and Louisville. Getting humbled by Alabama (lost 50-7) set an ominous tone. The Cardinals did pick up a win in Week 2, but that came against a FCS school, Indiana State. They barely escaped Western Kentucky at home, 20-17, a game they had zero business winning. Last week on the road was another bad loss as they were blown out by Virginia, 27-3. Their ATS record now stands at 0-4 as they are set to welcome in what is undoubtedly a highly motivated Florida State squad. The Seminoles have had their own unexpected struggles to start the year and come in w/ double revenge after losing to the Cardinals each of the last two seasons. The 'Noles are off their most impressive game to date, a 37-19 win over Northern Illinois, but that's only helped to artificially inflate this line. I'm taking the points. Florida State, like Louisville, is just 2-2 w/ one of their wins coming against a FCS school. And just like L'ville against Western Kentucky, Florida State had no business beating Samford. They needed five turnovers in that one to help overcome a fourth quarter deficit. They didn't even take the lead until less than five minutes were left in the game and were still outgained 525-424. Both ACC games have gone very poorly for Willie Taggart's team as they've been blown out by Va Tech and Syracuse by a combined score of 54-10. Remember that Va Tech just lost to Old Dominion last week, so that opening week loss (which came at home!) to the Hokies now looks even worse for FSU. This is Taggart's first year in Talahassee mind you, so he has a honeymoon period. But he's still figuring out what he has and so far it hasn't been very good. The last two meetings have seen Louisville cover the spread by 63 points. The last time hosting FSU was a day to remember as Lamar Jackson announced his presence to the nation in a 63-20 annihilation. Last year saw the Cardinals go to Doak Walker and pull a 31-18 upset as six-point dogs. With the former Heisman winner Jackson departed, QB play has been an issue for Louisville, but no more so than turnovers have been for FSU. Takeaway that Samford game and the Noles would be -10 in TO's. Deondre Francois has not looked like the same QB he was before LY's injury and those thinking FSU is just going to be able to "show up" and exact revenge here are in for a rude awakening. 8* Louisville |
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09-29-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +4 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 36 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): Fresh off a bye, West Virginia wasted little time in taking care of Kansas State last Saturday, winning easily in Morgantown 35-6. But that wasn't the only impressive win by a Big XII team last week, nor was it the most impressive. That distinction belongs to Texas Tech going to Stillwater and beating Oklahoma State 41-17 as two-touchdown underdogs. While I'm a little concerned w/ the Red Raiders' record off a conference win the L2 seasons (0-5 SU/1-4 ATS), one thing I'm no longer concerned about in Lubbock in the QB situation. Remember that 47-27 loss to Ole Miss? That's now a distant memory as is McLane Carter, who lost the starting gig to injury. At the time, that injury was thought to derail the Red Raiders' season. But Alan Bowman has stepped in and played far better than Carter probably ever would have. In his 1st start, Bowman completed 22 of 25 passes for 282 yards in a 77-0 win. Granted, it was against FCS Lamar. But little did we know it would be a harbinger of things to come. The following week saw Bowman & the Red Raiders hang 63 points on Houston. Bowman threw for 605 yards and five touchdowns in that one! Last week, he almost threw for another 400 (397) in the win over OK State. Bowman is now #2 in all of FBS w/ 1,557 passing yards. Don't be surprised if he is the difference maker again this week. WVU has not faced a QB anywhere close to his caliber and thus the backend of the defense will be tested like never before. Texas Tech is #1 in all of FBS in total offense w/ 623.5 YPG. It's a big difference between them and Kansas State, who WVU played last week. Kansas State is second from the bottom in the Big 12 in points per game. This game carries special meaning to Texas Tech HC Kliff Kingsbury and the rest of his coaching staff. They've lost four years in a row to West Virginia, coached by Kingsbury's good friend Dana Holgorsen, all as underdogs. Last year, the Red Raiders led 35-17 midway through the 3Q in Morgantown. But they gave up 29 unanswered and didn't even cover the spread (were FG underdogs). The final five drives resulted in a missed field goal, three punts and an INT. Saturday is all about payback and w/ Bowman at the helm, the Red Raiders may finally have the QB to get the job done. I'm taking the points. 10* Texas Tech |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): The Vikings were on the wrong end an absolute shocker last week, losing as 17-pt home favorites to Buffalo. It wasn't just that they lost to the previously winless Bills though. It was how they lost. Shutout for nearly four quarters, they lost 27-6 to a team that was perceived as easily the worst in the league. Needless to say, when this NFL season is over, there won't be a more head-scratching result. The good news though is the Vikings can quickly atone. The bad news is they'll have to travel out to LA to face the team many consider the best in the league right now, the Rams. But w/ many of the same faces, the Vikings beat the Rams LY 24-7, completely shutting down Jared Goff and company. This time, they'll have to do it on the road, but they're also getting alot of points from the oddsmakers. I'm on the dog, looking to bounce back from an embarrassing defeat. The thing about last week was that the Vikings were dead even in total yards w/ the Bills at 292 each. The issue was being -3 in turnovers. Three of the Bills scoring drives were 25 yards or less and that was essentially the difference in the game. A convincing Week 1 victory over the 49ers now seems like a distant memory as the Vikings have since tied and lost. That tie (against the Packers) should have been a win as they missed TWO field goals in overtime and outgained Green Bay 480-351 in total yards and by 2.1 yds on a per play basis. This team (the Vikings) is better than its record shows. Meanwhile, the Rams are 3-0 and considered by many to be the best team in the league. They have a +66 point differential that is easily the league's best. But look at who they've played: three teams that are a combined 1-8 SU. They did trail Oakland at the half in Week 1. Arizona is really bad. The Chargers are dealing with a lot of injuries and not at full strength. Speaking of not at full strength, this short week really works against the Rams here as they are going to be w/o numerous players. Two of them are from the high-priced secondary w/ Aqib Talib now out (at least) 8 weeks due to ankle surgery and Marcus Peters (calf) listed as questionable. Even kicker Greg Zuerlein has been ruled out, so field goal kicking could be problematic. Two linebackers and their return man also may not play. Vikings HC Zimmer has been outstanding as a dog and could steal one here. 8* Minnesota |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -17.5 | Top | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (8:00 ET): North Carolina was a nice winner for me last Saturday, picking up their first win of the season by upsetting Pitt, 38-35. They were desperate and coming off an unexpected bye due to Hurricane Florence. That was enough to get my endorsement for one week, but it would take a lot more than what the oddsmakers are offering here to get me to take the Tar Heels on the road against Miami. "The U" had its own rough start to the season, getting embarrassed by LSU on national television. But they've since responded w/ three convincing wins, including one last week over Florida International that was a lot more lopsided than the final score of 31-17 indicates. Consider Miami was listed as a 20-pt favorite LY in Chapel Hill. There's actually some real value in laying the points here. Last week against FIU, the Hurricanes led 31-0 late in the 4th quarter. All of a sudden, FIU decided to explode in garbage time. They scored 17 points over the final seven minutes, thanks to recovering a fumble and an onside kick. The fumble came from blitzing Miami's third string QB. But the bottom line was that Miami's D held FIU to just seven first downs for the game. At one point, total yardage was 397-10 in favor of the Hurricanes. The discrepancy ended up being 488-187 when all was said and done. I mentioned Miami's third string QB fumbling late (which led to a FIU field goal), but it was actually the backup that made headlines. Freshman N'Kosi Perry came off the bench for the team's third possession of the game, immediately led two TD drives and ended up w/ 3 TD in just over two quarters of play. I expect Perry to be the starter moving forward even though Malik Rosier has won plenty of games for HC Mark Richt. North Carolina now has its own QB issue to deal with as sophomore Chazz Surratt is now eligible to return from suspension (as are several other players). But it's still likely to be junior Nathan Elliott under center given the offense scored 38 pts and gained 486 yards last week. But recall UNC's first two games of the season, both on the road and both losses, where they scored just 36 points total. Miami has a huge defensive edge in this contest having allowed more than 300 yds in just 1 of 4 games while UNC has allowed 41 and 35 pts its last two games to East Carolina and Pitt. Miami has also traditionally been very strong in these Thursday night home games. 10* Miami FL |
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Of the four NFL teams that remain winless, the Steelers are certainly the biggest surprise to be counted among them. Now there is a caveat in that they tied the Browns, but the fact is that the Steelers were favored in both games. They had to overcome a -5 turnover margin just to tie the Browns in Week 1, but the truth is they largely outplayed Cleveland in that contest, outgaining them by 145 total yards. Last week saw them roll up 37 points, 475 total yds and not turn the ball over once - at home - and they still lost to the Chiefs. While they haven't been able to "put it all together" quite yet, because of that I feel tonight is the ultimate "buy low" scenario on Pittsburgh. I'll play against the line move and take them here in a virtual "must-win" spot. Tampa Bay is 2-0 and it's safe to say no one expected that considering they opened w/ the Saints and the Eagles. This game makes it three straight opponents that won their division last year and the Bucs have had to do it w/o their starting QB Jameis Winston. Then again, maybe that's why they are 2-0. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been one of the biggest stories in the league thus far, becoming the first QB in league HISTORY to open a season w/ B2B 400+ yard, 4 TD passing days. Considering what the Steelers just gave up to Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, this would seem like an ideal matchup for Fitzpatrick and the Bucs. However, are we really sure Fitzpatrick and TB are going to be able to sustain this kind of production? Remember, I took them in Week 1 at New Orleans. But I have been stunned how good this offense has looked so far. It's rare to see the Steelers falling out of favor w/ the public. That probably has a lot to do w/ the fact that WR Antonio Brown has been so vocal with his criticism of the team. I suspect Brown is going to have a big game here as you have to remember that the TB defense gave up 40 points itself in Week 1 and has allowed 400+ yards in both games so far. To me, I don't think we've seen a true representation of either team here in 2018. The Steelers are better than they've played and the Bucs are due to "come back down to Earth." Over the last four years, there's been only one time the Steelers went winless for a stretch of at least three games. 8* Pittsburgh |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +7 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 101 h 4 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:05 ET): The Steve Wilks era in Arizona has gotten off to a pretty disastrous start as the team has been outscored 58-6 w/ the lone scoring coming in garbage time in Week 1. As bad as that sounds, I see some real value on the Cardinals this week. They are catching Chicago on a short week, off an emotional home victory over Seattle (1st of Matt Nagy era). The Bears probably should be 2-0 as they had Green Bay "dead to rights" in the opener before falling victim to Aaron Rodgers (still covered though). While I'm 2-0 ATS taking the Bears this season, this is a rare instance of them being a road favorite and I'm not about to start trusting them in that role just yet. Take the points. It's going to be real difficult to sugarcoat Arizona's performances through the first two games. They have both been bad. Last week in particular as they gained just 137 total yards and did not run a play on the Rams' side of the field until the final play of the GAME. It's been almost 12 years since a team failed to cross midfield in a NFL game, so it was a historically bad effort. I suppose the Cardinals could do what the Browns did Thursday night and throw their own rookie QB (Josh Rosen) out there. I wouldn't disagree w/ such a move and if it came late in the game (meaning Cards are behind), the backdoor could at least be open w/ a Rosen spark. But also remember that Cleveland only changed QB's due to injury. Bottom line is I expect a far better effort out of Arizona at home this week. I think that it's also important that we not overrate Chicago. I say this as someone who considers them a darkhorse playoff candidate in the NFC. But looking at them right now, I don't see them as being ready to blow teams out on the road, even one as lowly as Arizona. It's pretty clear that the Chicago offense, specifically QB Mitchell Trubisky, has issues. First year HC Matt Nagy is doing a great job of scripting the offense's plays early, but after the 1st quarter, production goes in the tank. Over the final three quarters of the first two games, the Bears are averaging just about 3.5 yards per play. So Arizona is going to be able to hang around here in what should be a pretty low-scoring game. Going back to the 2014 season, the Bears have been road favorites just once (Wk 10 of '16 at Tampa Bay) and they lost that game outright, 36-10. 8* Arizona |
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Bengals/Panthers (1:00 ET): Cincinnati has opened the season w/ a pair of wins, scoring a surprising 34 points in both games. I call that number "surprising" because not only is it a lot points - even by modern NFL standards - but this was an offense I thought was set to decline in 2018. That sounds surprising given that they averaged only 18.1 pts per contest, but they were also dead last in total yds. This week, they head to Carolina to face a Panthers' team whose offense I am also quite skeptical of this season. Last year, they averaged a decent 22.7 PPG (12th most), but were slightly below average in terms of total yards (19th). Personnel losses will take their toll here as well. The Panthers' defense wasn't very good last week, but not facing the Falcons in Atlanta again will help. Take the Under. Cincinnati being one of six teams to average 30 or more points per game through the first two weeks is impressive, but it also has a lot to do w/ who they've played. Indianapolis was their Week 1 opponent and has a horrendous defense, one that allowed the Bengals to gain 6.6 yards per play. Last Thursday vs. Baltimore, the Ravens' offense did a great job setting Cincy's offense up on two short fields (turnovers), which led to 10 points. The Bengals also got a non-offensive TD in the opener. It's not like their yards per game average is anything special; it's only 351. They will enter this game w/o their starting center (Billy Price) and running back (Joe Mixon), which is a problem when you consider this offensive line is already 2nd in sacks allowed and 17th in rushing yards. Carolina's defense had an "off-week" against Atlanta in the dome. The Falcons usually aren't very good in the red zone, yet converted all four opportunities into TD's. I had the Over in that game and cashed. This week is a much different story. I look for Ron Rivera's defense to be more reminiscent of what we saw in Wk 1 vs. the Cowboys when they produced six sacks and allowed only 8 points and 232 total yds. But on offense, Cam Newton is w/o his favorite target (Greg Olsen) for the rest of the season. Right now, a RB (Christian McCaffery) is the team's leading receiver. Newton is its leading rusher. That's not what you want to see, even as early as Week 3. Look for an ugly slugfest on Sunday. 10* Under Bengals/Panthers |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
8* Oakland (1:00 ET): Jon Gruden's return to the Raiders is not going as planned as two poor second half showings have the team at 0-2. Last week's loss to Denver seems somewhat improbable when you consider QB Derek Carr completed 90% of his pass attempts, becoming the first player in NFL HISTORY to do so in a game where he had at least 27 attempts! Carr wasn't just "dinking and dunking" either as he threw for 288 yards. But it marked the second straight game where the Silver & Black failed to hold a halftime lead. A blocked XP ended up "biting them in the rear" as they lost the game 20-19 w/ the Broncos kicking a last second field goal. While many Raiders fans are disappointed w/ the team being 0-2, you have to remember they were underdogs in both games. They're underdogs again this week, but given the desperate circumstances, I'm not sure they should be. Far more surprising than Oakland being 0-2 is Miami being 2-0. The Dolphins have played well in both games as well, though it should be noted they faced the Titans and the Jets. Put a bit of an asterisk next to that Week 1 win at Tennessee as play was suspended multiple times due to weather and Tennessee lost QB Marcus Mariota early. Last week, they were actually outgained 362-257 by the Jets, only to feast on three turnovers. Two of Miami's three touchdown drives started on the Jets' side of the field, one of them at the 15-yard line. I'm still not sold on QB Ryan Tannehill as anything special and this just has the feel of a "trap game" for the Fish. Last year, Oakland came to Miami and won 27-24 as three-point favorites. I'm not sure enough has changed in a year's time to justify such a price swing. Say what you will about the Raiders, but they've gone 11-5 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the line is three points or less, including 4-2 as a road underdog. Gruden is doing good things w/ this offense as it currently ranks 6th in the league at 6.2 yards per play. Was it stupid to trade Khalil Mack, right before the season? Absolutely. Especially considering the lack of pass rush. Fortunately, Tannehill has been knocked around a lot the first two games. I just don't like Miami as a favorite in this spot. Will they be better than last year? Probably. But it's hard to see this team starting 3-0. Or the Raiders starting 0-3, for that matter. 8* Oakland |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 39 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): Facing Indianapolis and winning the battle of turnovers and total yards, the Redskins still found a way to lose by DOUBLE DIGITS last week at home. It was a disappointing effort all-around as their offense had to settle for three field goals while the Colts scored three touchdowns. Interesting though is that outside of Indy's three TD drives (all of which went for exactly 75 yards), they gained just 56 yards the rest of the game. Talk about opportunistic football. Speaking of opportunistic, the Packers should thank their lucky stars that they were able to escape w/ a tie LW vs. Minnesota. Yes, there was the bogus roughing the passer penalty on Clay Matthews. But Green Bay was outgained 480-351 in total yardage, including a stunning 2.1 yards per play! The Vikings also missed two kicks in overtime, not to mention had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. So Washington is now back in a more customary role of underdog this week and I like them at home. It's tough to put a ton of stock into the Week 1 victory at Arizona now that we have a better understanding just how bad the Cardinals are. A huge difference between Weeks 1 and 2 was how the Redskins ran the ball. Against Arizona, they ran the ball 42 times for 182 yards. Against Indianapolis, they ran it only 22 times (got down early) for just 65 yards. We should see a performance that lies "somewhere in between" this week. I also expect better performance on both third downs and in the red zone, on both sides of the ball, this week. Those two areas really cost them against the Colts. Remember that Green Bay should probably be 0-2 right now. They trailed Chicago 20-0 at home before Aaron Rodgers turned in an amazing come from behind effort to steal one. Rodgers is clearly still hurting and this is going to be a lingering issue the rest of the season. He isn't practicing much because of the knee and there is some (legit) concern that it will worsen if he continues playing on it. Another legit concern w/ this offense is the non-existent running game. Through two games, the Pack have just 167 yds rushing, which is near the bottom of the league. This team is only 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of a field goal or less the last three seasons w/ three outright losses. If the Redskins can generate pressure on Rodgers Sunday, then this should be a relatively easy upset. 10* Washington |
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09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -102 | 101 h 52 m | Show |
8* Utah State (10:15 ET): I've been really impressed w/ Utah State this season. After taking Michigan State to the wire in the season opener, but coming up just short, they easily could have folded. Instead, it's been quite the opposite. The last two weeks have seen the Aggies win by scores of 60-13 and 73-12. Now the opponents were New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech, one of the worst FBS teams and a FCS team, respectively. But the Michigan State game (38-31 loss as 23.5-pt dogs) showed this team can compete w/ anybody. They certainly won't be lacking for motivation this week as they open Mountain West play against Air Force. The Flyboys have beaten USU three straight years, all of the games decided by seven points or less. This year, it's the Aggies turn. Lay it. Air Force pulled out a miraculous cover in its last game, a 33-27 loss at Florida Atlantic. I had them. A blocked punt in the final minute, which was returned for a touchdown, is what got the Falcons the cover as 9.5-pt dogs. They trailed the entire game, much of it by double digits. The defense allowed 525 yards, much of it through the air as FAU QB Chris Robison (a freshman) completed 33 of 40 pass attempts for a school record 471 yards. Keep in mind that was an Owls team that had just been humiliated the prior week at Oklahoma. I was disappointed w/ the AFA offense even though they still ran for 200+ yards. The team is off a bye, but Utah State has also had extra time to prepare as the game vs. Tennessee Tech took place last Thursday. Other than the two wins over the Aggies, Air Force is just 2-12 ATS in conference play the last two seasons. Last year, these teams met in the regular season finale out in Colorado Springs. Utah State blew a double-digit lead, giving up the game-winning TD w/ just over 90 seconds to go. Despite losing 38-35, the Aggies held a 521-440 edge in total yds. This year's team is even better as evidenced by the last two weeks when they put up 60+ pts in B2B games for the 1st time in school history. Last week saw them run for seven touchdowns. Logan should be rocking Saturday night and I expect the Aggies to assert themselves early and often in this one. 8* Utah State |
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09-22-18 | East Carolina +21 v. South Florida | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 46 h 22 m | Show |
10* East Carolina (8:00 ET): East Carolina has had two fascinating results so far. They lost to a FCS school, North Carolina A&T, 28-23. The following week saw them bounce back w/ a stunning 41-19 win over North Carolina where they were 15-pt home dogs. Last week, they had an unexpected bye due to Hurricane Florence as the scheduled game vs. Virginia Tech was cancelled. This has not been a good ATS team under Scottie Montgomery, particularly on the road, but this week finds them taking a generous number. This is certainly Montgomery's best team in his three years here. Do I think we'll be seeing another huge upset from them? No. But I do think the Pirats cover comfortably. Take the points. South Florida is 3-0, but has had to come from behind to win each of the last two games. A 49-38 home win over Georgia Tech might seem "comfortable," but USF was down with five minutes left in the game. Their defense also gave up 600+ yards. Last week saw the Bulls score the game's final 18 pts (all in the 4Q) in a 25-19 win. This time, it was they who gained 600+ total yards, but they didn't go ahead until the final two minutes. Outside of the 34-14 win over Elon in the season opener, it's hardly been a dominant 3-0 for USF. ECU has to run the ball the way they did vs. North Carolina when they ran for 220 yards. South Florida's run defense has been very leaky, giving up 274 YPG. Yes, that has a lot to do w/ playing Georgia Tech, but they also allowed 200+ last week. The Pirates have not fared well in this AAC rivalry, losing the last three meetings. They are actually 0-6 ATS vs. USF dating back to '04. But the last time here was an all-time bad beat w/ two late USF touchdowns after ECU actually pulled within two late (and had a chance at a two-point conversion). This is a big spread and at worst the backdoor will be open for the Pirates. 10* East Carolina |
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09-22-18 | TCU v. Texas +4 | Top | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 42 m | Show |
10* Texas (4:30 ET): Maybe things are going to be alright in Austin for Tom Herman. The season started w/ a bad 34-29 loss to Maryland (a revenge game for the Longhorns) and then a ho-hum 28-21 win over Tulsa. They did lead Tulsa 21-0 early, but the end result had plenty of whispers and doubt about the team moving forward. Then came a statement win over USC last Saturday night. The 37-14 win is definitely a little misleading when you consider the 'Horns trailed 14-3 after the first quarter. Things took a dramatic swing in the third when, up 23-14, Texas returned a blocked field goal for a TD. Nevertheless, it goes down in the record books as a top 25 win for a program that desperately needed it. This week, I'll take the points. TCU is off a hard-fought loss to Ohio State. The Horned Frogs looked every bit the equal of the Buckeyes for four quarters last week as total yardage was basically even (526-511 OSU), but the key was three TCU turnovers. Two of those were directly converted into touchdowns, one a fumble recovery in the end zone, the other a pick-six. Hence the 40-28 finale, but TCU still did manage to just sneak inside the number. The week prior saw them fall behind SMU early, only to rally back for a comfortable win of their own thanks to multiple non-offensive scores. So as you can see, turnovers work both ways. I think it's going to be incredibly tough here for TCU to "get back up" following a high-profile loss where they feel they should have been a lot closer or even won outright. Texas has gone just 1-5 SU vs. TCU as Big 12 rivals, including four consecutive losses. None of those four have been even close. We're talking losses by 38, 43, 22 and 17 points. That's an average margin of 30 PPG. As bad as the matchup has been for the Longhorns, the situation was just as bad last season. They were traveling for the third time in four weeks (and held to a season-low in total yards). This year, it's a third consecutive home game. Technically, TCU is playing for a third consecutive week away from home. (Last week's game was in Arlington). Herman has been a HC for four years (two here, two in Houston) and while he is 5-13-1 ATS as a home favorite, he's a perfect 3-0 ATS as a dog. The Lognhorns defense held USC to -5 rushing yards last week and will be ready to deliver Herman another big win. 10* Texas |
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09-22-18 | Virginia Tech -27.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 35-49 | Loss | -109 | 94 h 7 m | Show |
8* Va Tech (3:30 ET): The Hokies opened their season w/ a 24-3 win at Florida State (I was on them). That win might not seem as impressive now (FSU stinks), but it was a conference road win nonetheless. Week 2 was even easier for Justin Fuente's team as they blew out FCS William & Mary, 62-17. They were supposed to play last week East Carolina in Blacksburg last Saturday, but that was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence. Florence also reaked havoc on this week's opponent, Old Dominion, whose game vs. Charlotte was moved to Thursday. The Monarchs lost 28-25 to a team that won just one game LY. ODU has been one of the biggest ATS underachievers so far as they are 0-3 SU/ATS, missing the spread by a cummulative 56.5 points. It's a big number here, but like Mississippi State last week, I'm willing to lay it. The spread for every ODU game this year has five points or less and they've been favored twice. Yet, they are 0-3. Their biggest miss when it came to the pointspread was clearly the season opener at Liberty. Even though they were facing an opponent making its FBS debut, the Monarchs went down 52-10 and were outgained 591-301 in the process! They may never live that one down. This will be by far their toughest opponent to date and probably all year. Given losses to Liberty, FIU and Charlotte, that doesn't bode well. They faced the Hokies LY and lost 38-0 in Blacksburg. The spread here is actually larger, but that's justifiable considering Va Tech looks better while ODU looks worse. Virginia Tech coming in off a bye does ODU no favors here. Playing with a week or more of rest, the Hokies have gone 3-1 ATS the previous two seasons. This being such a short road trip, expect the Hokies to have plenty of fan support Saturday and this will "feel" like a home game. Even having to replace eight starters from last year, Bud Foster's defense appears as if it will just fine. They've allowed just 128 rushing yds in two games. Were it not for three big plays, they'd have allowed far fewer total yds as well. This week they'll be facing a young QB who's completing just 51.2 percent of his pass attempts. Virginia Tech's offense seems revitalized w/ new contributors at the skill positions. RB Deshawn McClease is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. QB Josh Jackson is in his second year as a starter and looks a lot more comfortable. This one won't be close. 8* Va Tech |
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09-22-18 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 41 h 7 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (12:20 ET): To say the Tar Heels are a desperate team entering their third game of the season would be putting it mildly. Larry Fedora's team is 0-2 SU and off a bye. You have to remember that it was not the best offseason in Chapel Hill. Fedora has some questionable commenatary on CTE. Then 13 players were suspended for selling Nike gear. The latter has certainly has had more impact than the former, but there's no denying that something is awry w/ this program right now. Was losing the opener at Cal acceptable? Sure, they were seven-point underdogs and that was the final margin (24-17). But a 41-19 loss at East Carolina (as 15-pt chalk!) was a clear step in the WRONG direction. Last week's game vs. UCF had to be cancelled due to Hurricane Florence, so I expect the Tar Heels to come out HIGHLY motivated as a home dog this week. Take the points. Pitt was a home dog itself last week and pulled the outright upset over Georgia Tech. It was a much needed bounce back for Pat Narduzzi's team after getting walloped by Penn State, 51-6, the week prior. This will be the Panthers' first road game of the year and they were just 1-4 SU away from Heinz Field last season. They were slightly outgained by Ga Tech last week, but did lead comfortably (as in 24-6) heading into the 4th quarter. But again, that was at home. It was a yeoman's effort defensively LW holding Ga Tech to five plays or less on six of the first seven drives. But they also got a big break early, thanks to some questionable decision making by Yellow Jackets' HC Paul Johnson, who elected to run a fake punt from his own 28-yard line. It was stuffed and Pitt responded w/ its second TD of the game, thanks to the short field. The game was basically "in the bag" at that point. Since joining the ACC, Pitt has never beaten North Carolina. They are 0-5 SU, though all five losses have been by a TD or less. I do think the bye is huge for North Carolina. Yes, they are still dealing with suspensions plus the issues as a result of Florence. But I suspect Fedora is going to have his players ready for Saturday in an emotional spot. Pitt really delivered w/ its own "back against the wall" last week, but it will be very challenging to duplicate that kind of performance on the road. Consider that the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS when favored the L3 seasons. 8* North Carolina |
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09-22-18 | Kent State +29 v. Ole Miss | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 41 h 47 m | Show |
8* Kent State (12:00 ET): Both of these teams gave up 60+ points to top 10 teams last week. One is now being asked to lay four touchdowns. Obviously, there's a massive talent gap that exists between Kent State and Ole Miss, but consider the former actually hung w/ Penn State for about a half before the inevitable took place. It was actually the second time this year the Golden Flashes have had to play a Big 10 team on the road. They covered the first, at Illinois. While 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS vs. SEC schools, Kent State is catching Ole Miss at the right time. The Rebels were flat out embarrassed last week, here at home, losing to Alabama 62-7. Make no mistake about it; the Rebels' pysche was severely wounded by that result and they won't be "up" for this game, which comes right in between Bama & LSU. Take the points. Kent State was tied w/ Penn State early on last Saturday, 7-7, midway through the first quarter. It was only 21-10 late in the second when the Nittany Lions tacked on another TD right before halftime. That drive started w/ a long kick return after a Kent State field goal. The second half was all Penn State. Still, this offense is much improved from LY when it averaged just 12.8 PPG, which was second fewest in the country. That's owed to 1st year HC Sean Lewis, who was the former OC at Syracuse at Dino Babers, and that means the offense is going to play "fast." Consider the Ole Miss' defense is giving up 43.3 points and 544 yards per game. Before you go thinking that's heavily skewed by Alabama, consider the Rebels gave up more yards to Southern Illinois (629!) the week prior, not to mention 41 points. Remember that Ole Miss still is facing a bowl ban from the disgraced Huge Freeze era. So motivation is going to be a big question all year w/ this team. I thought HC Matt Luke did an admirable job in guiding this team to a 6-6 record last year (his 1st on the job), but the 2018 version of the Rebels is going to struggle as they figure to be a dog in every SEC game. They still have LA Monroe on the schedule, so this probably won't be their last victory. But it'll be closer than the "experts" think. Consider Ole Miss was down 49-7 at the half (at home) last week. Those thinking it will be an easy bounce back are likely to be disappointed. 8* Kent State |
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09-22-18 | Navy v. SMU +7 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 41 h 47 m | Show |
8* SMU (12:00 ET): SMU has had to play two very good teams the last two weeks, TCU and Michigan (both ranked in the top 20). For at least a half, the Ponies played both tough. After a long weather delay, they jumped out to a 9-0 lead on TCU. They only trailed 14-12 at the half, but from there it was all Horned Frogs, who scored the game's final 28 points. Keep in mind though that TCU scored three non-offensive TD's in the contest, somewhat robbing SMU of the cover as 23.5-pt dogs. The Mustangs did cover last week, at Michigan, as they were getting 36.5 from the oddsmakers. It was only a 15-pt game early in the 4Q, but still SMU found a way to lose a third straight game by 20 or more. Back as a home dog this week, I like them to cover. Take the points. Navy's last venture as a road favorite did not go well at all as they lost outright to Hawaii, 59-41. They were 13.5-pt chalk in that contest. They've since bounced back w/ a pair of wins over Memphis and Lehigh, but neither was very impressive. The win over Memphis was a come from behind effort that saw the Middies rally from down 21-9 to pick up an outright win as a 6.5-pt home dog. They scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the game-winning one coming w/ just 2:37 left on the clock. Navy was outgained in the contest, but clearly benefited from a +3 TO margin and massive edge in time of possession. There was also a driving rain during the game that played to their strength (running the ball!) on offense. Last week's win came against FCS Lehigh, who turned it over five times. Looking at this week's forecast, it appears as if rain is all but assured. But don't think that means Navy will be able to take advantage again. Yes, SMU has lost to Navy eight straight times, including a 75-31 debacle the last time here in Dallas (two years ago). But last year was a lot closer (SMU lost 43-40 in Annapolis) as the Ponies rallied back from a 34-11 deficit, only to come up just short. One thing to keep an eye on here is the SMU defense, which ranks top 25 nationally in tackles for loss. That's key when facing the triple option. SMU comes in 0-3 SU, so they're a desperate home dog here and when desperate is often the best time to take a home dog. They've actually played three good teams (North Texas too) and a pretty easy case can be made that Navy is the weakest opponent they have faced so far. 8* SMU |
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -4 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
10* USC (10:30 ET): If you're into treating teams like stocks, this is a REAL "buy low" spot on Southern Cal. The Trojans have lost B2B games and are laying just a short number in a revenge game. Both losses have come in primetime, national TV games, so the public has certainly soured on them. The USC offense has managed just 17 total points the last two games while averaging 324.5 yards game behind freshman QB JT Daniels. But both of those losses took place on the road. Clay Helton's team has won 12 straight PAC 12 home games and is 25-7 SU their L32. I realize the Washington State defense is seemingly improved, but you have to factor in the opposition when looking at their numbers. USC's defense just held Texas to a 45.5 completion percentage and 3.3 yards per carry. I'll lay the points. So Wazzu is 3-0, both SU and ATS. But they've played Wyoming (who was on a short week), San Jose State (very bad) and Eastern Washington (FCS team). So take this "defensive improvement" w/ a grain of salt. Yes, last year's defense was the best of the Mike Leach era, but they lost an All-American in Hercules Mata'afa. That Wyoming team the Cougars beat has scored a total of just 49 points its last three games and needed a late TD to get by Wofford (FCS team) last week. San Jose State is 0-3 and one of the worst teams in FCS, including a loss to a FCS school (UC Davis). So this will be a considerable step up in class for a Washington State team that has just one win at the Coliseum this millenium. Last year's game saw Washington State beat a Top 5 team for the first time since 1992. It was a 30-27 upset (as four-point dogs) and also on a Friday night. Notable is that USC was down THREE starting offensive linemen for that game and also coming in unbeaten following WINS over Stanford and Texas. This script has totally been flipped this year. The Trojans did lose by 23 last week in Austin, but they were only down 9 when a blocked field goal was returned for a touchdown. Like I said, the defense played well. This is basically a "must win" for Helton, which of course does not guarantee victory, but I think he will and cover comfortably. 10* USC |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:20 ET): Some are reporting this as the 1st time the Browns have been favored in the Hue Jackson era. For the record, my notes show they actually closed as a one-point favorite against Indianapolis (on the road!) Week 3 of last season. (They obviously lost). Nevertheless, this is a rather monumental occurrence in Cleveland. It's also a must win. I probably don't need to tell you that it's 19 consecutive regular season losses and counting w/ Jackson's overall record as Browns' HC now 1-33 SU. But despite all the calls for rookie QB Baker Mayfield to start and the general incompetence that comes along w/ this team, they SHOULD be 2-0 this year. Thursday night, they get a home game against the Jets. There's a good chance Jackson is coaching for his job here. Week 1 saw the Browns infamously tie the Steelers, 21-21. They missed a field goal at the end of overtime and won the turnover battle by five. You may have heard this already, but since the Browns returned to the league (1999), teams that win the TO battle by 5+ are 132-4-1 SU. This being the Browns, they have accounted for two of the four losses and obviously the tie. As unbelievable as that result was, the Browns also SHOULD have won in New Orleans in Week 2. They outgained the Saints 327-275 and led 12-3 going into the fourth quarter. After giving up two touchdowns to fall behind 18-12 (Saints made a 2-pt conversion), the Browns answered w/ a TD of their own (w/ just 1:16 remaining) and appeared poised to snap the win streak. Problem is kicker Zane Gonzales missed his SECOND XP of the game! The Saints then marched down for the GW FG. Only Cleveland actually had a chance to tie, but Gonzalez missed again (Note: he's since been waived). Clearly, there's nothing wrong w/ this Browns defense, which has held the Steelers and Saints to just 21 points apiece. The offense does lack playmakers, particularly in the wake of the Josh Gordon trade. But I believe they have enough to outscore the Jets. New York was the "toast of the town" after Week 1 when they went to Detroit and won 48-17 as seven-point dogs. Of course, the final difference was the direct result of a 31-point third quarter where the Flyboys scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Sam Darnold, the Jets' own rookie QB, has three interceptions now in two games. His first pass attempt of the regular season was infamously returned for a TD by Detroit, then he threw two more in last week's 20-12 home loss to Miami. The offense was shutout in the 1st half and I have no idea why Darnold was asked to throw 41 times. If the Browns don't win this game, they should probably just fold the team. 10* Cleveland |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:15 ET): Though the results were the same for both of these teams in Week 1 (close loss), I view the respective franchises as trending in very different directions in 2018. The Bears lost a heartbreaker last Sunday, blowing a 20-0 lead against rival Green Bay. You may have heard that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is a big-time difference maker in this league. Rodgers got injured in the 1st half and that's when the Bears did almost all of their damage, including the newly acquired Khalil Mack returning a DeShone Kizer INT for a touchdown. But then Rodgers came back and the rest is history. Still, I came away impressed w/ the Bears' overall performance in what was a wire to wire cover. I took them plus the points in Week 1 and will lay the points w/ them in Week 2. Seattle lost its opener, also on the road, by a field goal at Denver. Don't let that close result fool you, however. The Seahawks are on the decline w/ most of the core players from the team's "glory years" having moved on. It's very much now Russell Wilson's team, but he's surrounded w/ a weak supporting cast and his offensive line is among the very worst in the league. Last week, Denver's Von Miller sacked Wilson three times himself and forced two fumbles. Now imagine what Mack and company will do here. I'm scratching my head as to how the Seahawks were able to keep things close last week, considering they were outgained 470-305 and had 12 fewer first downs (25-13). On Saturday, three Seahawks were ruled out for this game: WR Doug Baldwin, LB Bobby Wagner and LB K.J. Wright. Things have gotten so dire that the team has decided to sign Mychal Kendricks, a linebacker who was just released by the Browns in disgrace due to being charged w/ insider trading. As many as six Seattle starters could miss this game as three others (in addition to the three listed above) are questionable. This is no longer a good team, folks. I wasn't totally impressed w/ 1st year HC Matt Nagy's decision making in the second half last week. But the Bears' new coach is still an upgrade over "behind the times" John Fox, who went 1-5 SU and ATS as a favorite in his time in the Windy City. Most of my key indicators are pointing up for the Bears this season and I think they're a lock to improve on last year's 5-win total. They can't afford a second straight primetime loss. Look for Nagy to pick up his first win as a HC here. 10* Chicago |
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09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 42 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 54 m | Show |
8* Over Giants/Cowboys (8:20 ET): Two NFC East teams that thought they'd improved for 2018 each got a cold dose of reality in Week 1. The Giants lost at home, 20-15 to Jacksonville, while Dallas lost at Carolina, 16-8. With a couple of low-scoring affairs like that, it's no wonder that we find the O/U line so low Sunday night. Also, Dallas is now 9-1 Under its last 10 regular season games and 4-0 Under against the Giants the last two years. But, I believe the number is too low here. I look for a "surprise" Over here in Week 2 as both teams are desperate to avoid an 0-2 hole. If you combined the personnel of these two offenses, certainly it would be a desirable end result. The running game would be unreal w/ Ezekiel Elliot and rookie Saquon Barkely. Dallas has one of the top offensive lines in the league. The Giants have a great receiving corps. Dallas has the edge at QB w/ the youthful Dak Prescott over the aging Eli Manning. But both teams are "stuck" with what they've got. Dallas couldn't run for much (just 94 yards) against the Carolina defense, but should find easier sledding here against the Giants, who allowed 137 yds rushing LW to Jacksonville. It would help if their offensive line can get healthier and more productive. I don't think asking for three touchdowns is too much here. The Giants offense didn't look much better under Pat Shurmur than it did Ben McAdoo. But it too should start to improve. Eli Manning simply has too many weapons around him. You can argue that Barkley was drafted too high given his position, but he still gives the G-Men a running threat they didn't have last season. His presence was felt last week w/ a 68-yard TD run. The receiving corps was decimated by injury a year ago, but now has Odell Beckham Jr and Sterling Shepard back, among others. Beckham had 11 catches for 111 yards last week and remember that was against a Jaguars' pass defense that was the best in the league last season. The Cowboys secondary is nowhere close to as strong. This should be a very different type game for both teams after Week 1 slugfests. Look for more big plays and lots more scoring. 8* Over Giants/Cowboys |
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins -5.5 | Top | 21-9 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 45 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): In retrospect, the Redskins finishing just 7-9 SU last year shouldn't have been that surprising. Not only was the team hit hard by injuries, they were favored six times. Five of those six times came in the final six weeks. So they were favored just once in the first 10 games. They won't have to wait nearly as long to find themselves in the chalk role this season, however, thanks to the fact they are coming off a very impressive 24-6 win at Arizona in the season opener. Meanwhile, even though Andrew Luck is back, Indianapolis showed they still have a lot of work to do after losing their season opener at home to the Bengals. The Colts' defense gave up a frightening 6.6 yards per play in Week 1 and a Washington offense that averaged over 6.0 YPP itself in Week 1 should take full advantage this week. I'm laying the points. Obviously, because of the respective Week 1 performances this line has been adjusted. The lookahead line had the Redskins favored by three, but it wasn't high enough then and it's not high enough now. When favored last year, the 'Skins went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS. But they won all four times they were favored here in D.C., the lone non-cover coming when they were asked to lay double digits. The big difference between this year and last is the QB situation. Kirk Cousins has been replaced by Alex Smith and that will almost certainly lead to fewer turnovers. At RB, Adrian Peterson stunned me w/ a 96-yard Wk 1 performance, but don't discount Chris Thompson as he had 128 total yards from scrimmage. The defense allowed just 213 yards and while the Cardinals' offense isn't exactly good, neither is the Colts'. It seems to me that a lot of folks might be sleeping on this Washington team right now. Andrew Luck might be back, but the rest of the Colts roster looks to be in pretty poor shape. A case can be made that they have the worst secondary in the league and the linebacking group is weak on the interior. Luck also doesn't have a lot of help at the skill positions, especially running back. That's why he had to throw 53 times last week. It was an all-too familiar story for Colts' fans in Week 1 as they blew a double digit lead and were outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter. That was a recurring theme last year and I'll look for the Redskins to wear them down over the course of the game and earn a relatively easy win and cover. 8* Washington |
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09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 115 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Panthers/Falcons (1:00 ET): These two teams combined for just 28 total pts in Week 1. Carolina beat Dallas 16-8 while Atlanta lost 18-12 to Philadelphia. With more time to prepare (played Thursday) and at home, I expect the Falcons' offense to resume its high-flying ways that we're accustomed to seeing. This will force the Panthers into a shootout and thus I see this Week 2 matchup exceeding the O/U line by quite a bit. I was a little surprised to find that the Under was 2-0 in this NFC South rivalry last season. I was even more surprised to find that it's cashed 9 of the previous 10 meetings and that Atlanta is on a streak of eight straight Unders dating back to last year's regular season. They averaged just 22.5 PPG at home LY, which seems like a number they'll improve on this year. Take the Over. Another reason I believe this Falcons' offense is set to improve this year is that they still ranked eighth in total yards. Red zone inefficiency really bogged them down in 2017, which could be attributed to the change at OC from Kyle Shanahan to Steve Sarkisian. That inefficiency again reared its ugly head LW in Philly, but I believe it's something that will be overcome. There were three drives where the Falcons got inside the Eagles' 5-yard line and they only came away w/ three points. Having to settle for a 21-yard field goal was disappointing, but not as bad as Matt Ryan throwing an interception or the final drive ending w/ an incompletion in the end zone. There are too many weapons on this offense for them not to score more. I suspect we'll see some big plays this week. Now the Falcons' defense is a different story. It took a significant hit w/ the loss of safety Keanu Neal (torn ACL) and LB Deion Jones (foot). Neal is obviously done for the year and Jones is being held out of practice this week. Carolina does not have the most dynamic offense, especially now with TE Greg Olsen out, but Cam Newton is a better QB than Nick Foles. The Falcons' D got a bit of a break facing an Eagles offense that was out of sync and riddled w/ injuries. Of course, the same could be said for Carolina's defense, which faced a one-dimensional Dallas offense that might have the worst passing attack in the entire league. Ryan will test them far more than Dak Prescott did. I look for a relatively high-scoring NFC South affair here as the Panthers are 9-2 Over following a game where they allowed fewer than 250 total yds. 10* Over Panthers/Falcons |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -5 | Top | 42-37 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 35 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I get the feeling that most bettors are going to be on the underdog here. The Chiefs couldn't have asked for a better start to the Patrick Mahomes era as they went out to LA and whipped the Chargers, 38-28. Meanwhile, the error-prone Steelers (six turnovers) had to settle for a 21-21 tie w/ the lowly Browns. But this game is at Heinz Field where Pittsburgh has performed quite well through the years against everyone in the league not named "New England." Over the past four seasons, the Black & Gold have gone 12-5 SU at home vs. opponents w/ a .500 or better record. That's the second best mark in the league. They've had Kansas City's number in particular, winning all three matchups over the past two seasons. It'll be more of the same in Week 2. Lay the points. Tying the Browns might seem like an embarrassing way to start the season, but Pittsburgh should be happy to take it and move on. They turned the ball over SIX times and as you've probably seen by now, teams that lose the TO battle by five or more have gone 4-132-1 since 1999. Despite a torrential downpour and no LeVeon Bell, the Steelers still moved the ball last week to the tune of 472 total yards. They outgained Cleveland 472-327. I see the Steelers having no issues moving the ball again this week against a Chiefs' defense that is worse than the Browns and suspect at best. KC allowed the Chargers to gain over 500 total yards last week (541 to be exact) and I think there are going to be a lot of long Sunday afternoons for this stop unit. Week 2 should be one of them. The Steelers were the second highest scoring home team in the league last season, at 29.8 PPG, trailing only New Orleans. The last two seasons have seen the Chiefs lose to the Steelers three times. In all three games, their offense was held to 16 pts or fewer. Now, that was w/ Alex Smith at QB. Mahomes certainly appears to have a "higher upside" than Smith, particularly w/ the all the weapons surrounding him. But don't discount the likelihood that the Chiefs' lofty turnover margin of the previous three seasons (+45!) will take a significant hit w/ Mahomes at QB. They didn't turn the ball over at all last week, but the Chargers were busy displaying their usual brand of incompetence. One the Chiefs' TD drives started on the two-yard line and they got another score from special teams. Meanwhile, I can't look past the fact that their defense surrendered so many yards as well as 33 first downs. Love the Steelers in this spot. 10* Pittsburgh |
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09-15-18 | Fresno State -2 v. UCLA | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 55 h 54 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It has not been a great return to College Football for Chip Kelly at UCLA. Last week's blowout loss at Oklahoma was to be expected. But considering they barely covered a 30-point spread (scored late TD), that should tell you all you need to know about the current state of this once proud program. There was also the embarrassing showing in the season opener, a 26-17 home loss to Cincinnati where they were favored to win by double digits. That game saw a freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson pressed into duty when grad transfer Wilton Speight (from Michigan) was injured. Speight didn't play against Oklahoma and his status for this Saturday night vs. Fresno State is unclear. But what is clear is that Chip Kelly's team simply is not very good right now. Fresno State was one of the unheralded stories in all of College Football last season. They went from 1-11 SU to 10-4 SU in Jeff Tedford's first season at the helm. They are expected to regress some this year and did lose last week at Minnesota. But that game wasn't decided until the final minutes when a halfback pass resulted in an INT in the endzone. Fresno State even led, on the road, in the fourth quarter. It's a much weaker defense they're going up against this week, one that was horrible at stopping the run last year (worst in the country) and not showing much improvement in that department so far this year (186.5 YPG allowed). Fresno State's inability to run the ball last week (just 87 yds) really hurt them, but they did run for 239 yds in the opener vs. Idaho. Look for better success running the ball in this game, at least compared to last week. With Tedford and Kelly patrolling the respective sidelines, this will at least have the "feel" of a Pac 12 style game when these two used to match up at Cal and Oregon. But it's Tedford who has a team that more closely resembles the "good old days." Kelly has a lot to sort through here in Westwood and seems determined to play a lot of his own recruits, even if they aren't really ready. I anticipate some real "growing pains" w/ this Bruins squad and those thinking an 0-2 home team is a lock to win are being far too optimistic. Fresno State is 19-7 ATS the L3 seasons while UCLA is just 9-18 ATS. Eventually, the Bruins will get better, but it won't be during this game or maybe even this season. 8* Fresno State |
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09-15-18 | UMass +4.5 v. Florida International | Top | 24-63 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 48 m | Show |
10* Massachusetts (7:30 ET): This is the third consecutive week UMass is playing on the road and the last two have not gone well. They lost 55-21 at Boston College and then 34-13 at Georgia Southern. But both of those teams are far better than what they face this week, that being Florida International, who is coached by Butch Davis. FIU is off a win last week, as a favorite, against Old Dominion. It was a road game (FIU was favored by three) and a 28-20 final, but they had to rally back from 17 points down and there was a two-hour rain delay that impacted the game. It's hard to credit the weather w/ giving either team an edge, but FIU was clearly sharper afterwards as Old Dominion never scored in the second half. UMass is better than what they've shown the last two weeks and I have them going down to Miami and recording an outright win. Take the points. It was a 17-0 deficit for FIU midway through the 2nd quarter last week and it appeared as if they were well on their way to a second straight loss to open the season. The opener was a real disappointment as they were beaten 38-28 by Indiana here at home. Then came a traumatic week w/ two FIU players - starting RB Anthony Jones and offensive lineman Mershawn Miller - being the victims of a drive-by shooting. Both thankfully survived, but their football futures are in doubt. Kudos to their teammates for rallying around them and coming from 17 down to beat ODU last week. The key was three straight long TD drives, one right before halftime and the other two opening the third quarter. That took them from a 20-7 deficit to a 28-20 lead, which was the final score. The weather delay came before the two second half scores and ODU was not the same offensively afterwards. This will actually be the fourth consecutive season these schools have met. The home team has won all three times so far, including a wild 63-45 game here in Miami last season. That was FIU's highest-scoring effort EVER and landed them in the Gasparilla Bowl (where they got blown out by Temple). It was also a game that was a late addition to the schedule. Hurricane Irma caused both teams to cancel games earlier in the season and each needed to add a 12th onto the schedule. Interestingly, UMass was favored by 2. The Minutemen are a better team this year and more experienced, plus I like the revenge factor. Even though they started 0-6 last year, UMass had the first down edge in five of those games. They would go onto beat both Appalachian State and BYU while also playing two SEC teams (Tennessee, Miss State) tough. I like senior QB Andrew Ford and this should be a rare road win for the Minutemen. 10* Massachusetts |
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09-15-18 | UL-Lafayette v. Mississippi State -32.5 | Top | 10-56 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
8* Mississippi State (7:30 ET): Not quite knowing how good Mississippi State really was, I laid off them last week as they were road favorites going into Kansas State. The "Little Apple" is always a tough place for visiting teams, especially ones laying points, but the Bulldogs made quick work of Bill Snyder's Wildcats, demolishing them 31-10. MSU looked every bit the part of a Top 10 team in the country and those in Starkville that believe this could be the third best team in the SEC were made to look real smart. Given that the Bulldogs are off such an impressive road win and laying a big number this week, should I choose to abstain again? I don't think so. Louisiana Lafayette is no match for MSU and I suspect this one will get ugly in a hurry. Lay the points. QB Nick Fitzgerald did not even play in MSU's season opener, something that has still yet to be fully explained. But the team certainly didn't need him in a 63-6 whitewashing of FCS Stephen F. Austin. Fitzgerald had a major impact against Kansas State, however, throwing for 154 yards and running for 159 more. Coupled w/ RB Kylin Hill, who had 211 yds rushing last week, this looks to be a vicious offense that'll be tough to contain. Including Fitzgerald, they brough back nine starters from LY when they finished ranked #19 in the country. The defense is also very good, particularly up front, an area that also has plenty of experience. The spread doesn't concern me as I expect Fitzgerald to complete a far higher percentage of his throws this week against a much weaker defense. Louisiana has had two full weeks to prepare for this game, but they could get a month and it still wouldn't be enough to compete. The Ragin Cajuns beat Grambling in the opener, 49-17, but this is obviously a monumental step up in class for a team that has a 1st year head coach. The defense has only three starters back from last year, so it's going to be really tough to keep Mississippi State from scoring and Louisiana's own offense simply isn't going to be able to trade scores here. Something else that's tough is former Louisiana HC Mark Hudspeth is now the associate HC at MSU and that gives the Bulldogs a pretty clear insight into the players they'll be facing. But they don't need Hudspeth to let them know they're significantly better. That's already known and will be apparent Saturday night. 8* Mississippi State |
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09-15-18 | Oregon State v. Nevada -3 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 37 m | Show |
8* Nevada (7:00 ET): Nevada has to be extremely disappointed with last week's showing in Nashville. They were blown out by Vanderbilt as 9.5-pt dogs, losing 41-10. Things really got away from the Wolfpack late as they were outscored 24-0 in the second half. Four turnovers certainly didn't help matters, especially considering they led to 21 Vandy points. The performance was a stark contrast to the team's season-opening win over Portland State where they scored 72 points. Granted, Portland State is a FCS school, but I (and I think they) definitely expected a better performance in that second game. Luckily, they're back in Reno this week and facing an Oregon State team that is getting a shocking amount of respect given they haven't won a road game since 2014! Lay the short number. Oregon State is on the short list for worst Power 5 team in the country. Even 40 points from the oddsmakers couldn't help them cover in Week 1 at Ohio State as they gave up 77 points to the Buckeyes. Last week brought the first win of the Jonathan Smith era, but it was a FCS opponent (Southern Utah) at home. And the Beavers' defense still surrendered a ghastly 488 yards in the win. The last time Oregon State beat a FBS team was the 2016 finale against Oregon, who was a lame duck (pun intended!) for a coach about to get fired. OSU was a double digit dog in eight of its final nine games last year, the lone exception coming in Corvallis. I know Nevada was only a 3-win team itself a year ago, but this is an awful lot of respect for a Beavers team that - again - HAS NOT WON A ROAD GAME SINCE 2014! They are 0-18 SU since then and have never been closer than a touchdown! Two-thirds of the losses have been by at least three touchdowns. Like I said last week, Nevada should improve this season for second year HC Jay Norvell. Of their nine wins the L3 seasons, eight have come here at Mackay Stadium. The offense we see Saturday night will more closely resemble what we saw vs. Portland State than what we saw vs. Vanderbilt. The best news for the Wolfpack coming out last week is that they won't have to face another SEC defense the remainder of the year. This is an opportunity that they should relish as the program's last win over a Power 5 team came back in 2014 vs. Washington State. Senior QB Ty Gangi posted the third worst QBR in any start of his career last week and should rebound against what I've already said is a much weaker defense. A "hidden" edge for the Wolfpack in this game is that they lead all FBS teams w/ an average of 27 yards per punt return. 8* Nevada |
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09-15-18 | Troy +11 v. Nebraska | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 44 h 48 m | Show |
10* Troy (12:00 ET): This is both a tricky and tough spot for Nebraska. Tricky in the sense that it's an early start time in Lincoln against a pretty good football team. Tough in the sense that it sure will be difficult to get over losing last week in Scott Frost's home debut. The Cornhuskers fell as a three-point favorite, 33-28 to Colorado, giving up the game-winning touchdown w/ just over a minute to play. It was a game Nebraska outgained its opponent, 565-395, only to be undone by an ugly -3 turnover margin. It wasn't just HC Frost's debut that they lost, though. They also lost starting QB Adrian Martinez to a knee injury and he looks to be questionable at best for this game. Nebraska has covered just 1 of the last 5 times it has been a double digit fave of three touchdowns or less and is 3-10 ATS its L13 home games. I don't get why this spread has moved the way it has. Troy is 8-3 ATS its L11 road games, so take the points. It's been a bit of a "baptism by fire" for Frost at his alma mater. He's already lost more games here than he did all of last season w/ UCF. The Cornhuskers' season opener (vs. Akron) had to be cancelled due to weather. That made the Colorado game even tougher as the 'Huskers had to play a quality opponent in their very 1st game under a new head coach. They looked good early, but the Martinez injury is when things turned. Remember that two different QB's transferred out of the program once Martinez was named the starter late in the summer. This leaves the very inexperienced Andrew Bunch, a sophomore walk-on, at the helm. Note that if somehow Martinez were to play, this selection still stands. I wouldn't expect him to very effective a week removed from injuring his knee. Troy went 11-2 SU last year and tied Appalachian State for the regular season Sun Belt title. This season got off to an auspicious start w/ a 56-20 loss at home to Boise State. I suspect that has played a significant role in this line being higher than it should. But Boise State is a better team than Nebraska. The Trojans righted the ship last week w/ a 59-7 beatdown of Florida A&M as they forced four turnovers and had a 477-287 edge in total yards w/ twice as many first downs (26-13). Turnovers are what hurt Troy vs. Boise State (had four of their own) and QB Kaleb Barker was making his first start. Barker is completing 65% of his passes so far. Neal Brown (4th season as HC) will have his team ready for this one. 10* Troy |
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09-13-18 | Ravens -1 v. Bengals | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:20 ET): This is obviously a huge revenge game for the Ravens, whose playoff hopes were dashed last year by the Bengals in wild, Week 17 result that saw Cincy score a last second TD. It was a most improbable result w/ Andy Dalton tossing a 49-yard TD pass to Tyler Boyd on a 4th & 12, in Baltimore no less. Prior to the deciding play, the Ravens were projected as having a 93.4% chance of winning and thus making the playoffs. Basing a pick solely on revenge can sometimes be a mistake, but there's no denying tha Baltimore is again the better team entering 2018. They beat the Bengals here in Cincinnati last year, 20-0 (as three-point dogs), and should have swept the season series. The fact that both teams are off convincing Week 1 victories aids us in getting a good number here and I'll make a rare call to take a road favorite. Baltimore was a popular pick in Week 1 as they were hosting Buffalo. Things went even easier than anticipated as they rolled to a 47-3 win and cover. Their vaunted defense allowed just 153 total yds in the contest. Granted, they were facing perhaps the worst team in the league and certainly the worst starting QB in Nathan Peterman. But let's not lose sight of the fact they don't have to win that big every week. Certainly not here where all that's required is simply winning. I was shocked to find that they've dropped seven of the nine meetings vs. Cincinnati, so the revenge angle here extends beyond one game. The Ravens have gone 9-3 ATS vs. the AFC North the L2 seasons, so the struggles against Cincy are highly irregular. I'll definitely take John Harbaugh and his staff over Marvin Lewis. The Ravens have won and covered both of their Thursday games the L2 years. The Bengals were 34-23 winners over Indianapolis in Week 1. They rallied from a 23-10 second half deficit to score the game's final 24 points. Note that they had an 83-yard fumble return for a late touchdown. At the time, the Colts were (obviously) driving and it was only a 27-23 game. So things certainly could have ended a lot differently there. The defense that the Bengals will be up against this week will be far superior. Going from facing one of the league's worst defenses to one of its best will be a challenge I don't think they're up for. Coming into the year, I had the Ravens rated significantly higher than the Bengals and you can bet this is a game Harbaugh had circled on his calendar. 10* Baltimore |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 53 | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
THIS IS NO LONGER A PLAY DUE TO HURRICANE FLORENCE |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
8* Oakland (10:15 ET): The mood in Oakland is an ornery one as Khalil Mack was traded to Chicago just before the start of the regular season. So much for the enthusiasm surrounding Jon Gruden's return to the sidelines. Perhaps what the Mack trade signified was an acknowledgement that the Raiders are "a year away." Last year saw the Silver & Black drop down to six wins after going 12-4 SU in 2016. The reality is that team from two years ago was pretty fluky. The Super Bowl hype the Raiders entered last year was pretty ridiculous in retrospect and not something I bought into one iota. That all being said, I do expect Gruden's return to result in an increase in wins this year. The Raiders are underdogs at home in Week 1 and I think a great value against the NFL's new "shiny object." The Rams came out of nowhere last year. This franchise had done next to nothing under Jeff Fisher, but Sean McVay quickly put his imprint on the team and the impact was immediate. QB Jared Goff and the rest of the offense transformed into one of the league's top units almost overnight. But I look for the Rams to score fewer points per game in 2018. There's more tape available on McVay's offense and defenses will adjust. Speaking of defense, the Rams' stop unit projects to be one of the best in the league this season. They were actually middle of the road LY, but upgraded significantly in the secondary (Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib) and most importantly resigned DT Aaron Donald, arguably the best at his position in the league. In the wake of the Mack trade, the Raiders have fallen out of favor w/ the public and thus are now a far better value than they would have been. Mack looked incredible Sunday night for his new team, but one defensive player should not have that big of an impact on the pointspread. We're now at a point where the spread is too high. As mentioned above, I expect the Rams' offense to regress a bit this year. Meanwhile, the Raiders' offense almost HAS to improve after averaging just 18.8 PPG a year ago. Oakland was a home dog three times last year, going 1-1-1 ATS. But they lost only one of those games by more than a field goal and that was against the Patriots. While the Rams' defense projects to be good, I have questions about the pass rush. Oakland QB Derek Carr makes enough plays here to get the cash. Take the points. 8* Oakland |
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09-09-18 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 125 h 20 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:20 ET): The Bears were a team I'd already 'earmarked' for improvement and then they went out and traded for Khalil Mack, one of the top defensive players in the league. One of the smartest moves in the short tenure of 1st year HC Matt Nagy was to retain DC Vic Fangio. There weren't many positives from the John Fox era in Chicago, but Fangio's defenses were generally among them. On the offensive side of the ball, the hope is that Nagy can do for QB Mitchell Trubisky what Sean McVay did last year for Jared Goff. That might be an unrealistic expectation, but the Bears will be better in 2018 and I think it starts w/ a competitive showing against the rival Packers. Take the points. With Aaron Rodgers back in the fold, the expectation is for the Packers to win a lot more games this year. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and that was basically it for the rest of the team. They lost 8 of their final 11 games to finish below .500 for the 1st time since Rodgers' 1st year as a starter. Rodgers' return by itself makes the Pack a strong bet to return to the playoffs this year. But his supporting cast isn't what it used to be. Also keep in mind that this team has not won more than 10 games since 2014. Rodgers' favorite wideout, Jordy Nelson, is gone. Although Nelson was aging and may not be as missed as anticipated. Even w/o Rodgers, the Pack still swept the Bears last season. But as I'm about to discuss, this is a much improved Chicago team in 2018. The offense surrounding the second year QB Trubisky is a lot better this year. I really like the Bears' backfield tandem of Howard and Cohen. Receiver had been a problem for years, but was addressed in the offseason w/ Allan Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton all coming in. The defense was already good before Mack's arrival and will be even better than it was last year. I think it would be foolish to expect Mack to dominate in this game, but he is more than capable of making an impact. The Bears have just TWO road wins the last two seasons, but there's a real "positive vibe" surrounding this team entering 2018 and I think they're capable of pulling an upset here. 8* Chicago |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -125 | 121 h 6 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): The AFC West is wide open this year. It's a division that's largely been dominated by Kansas City since Andy Reid's arrival, the last two years in particular. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the division. But they have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact, the Chiefs still have just ONE playoff win since Joe Montana retired a quarter century ago. That was three years ago against a Houston team that was quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden. No longer content with going 12-4 and being "one and done" in the playoffs, the Chiefs have made a major move at QB this season, jettisoning Alex Smith in favor of last year's #1 draft choice Patrick Mahomes. With the AFC West more wide open this year, the Chargers seem to have stepped into the favorite role. This was a very good team last year. They actually had a better point differential than Kansas City. But the same old issues plagued the Lightning Bolts, namely an inability to win close games. They dug themselves a huge hole last year, starting the Anthony Lynn era 0-4 w/ three of the losses coming by three points or fewer. From that point on, they went 9-3 SU (w/ one of the losses in OT), but it was "too little, too late." There's no doubt in my mind that this was one of the six best teams in the AFC last year (certainly better than Buffalo), they just didn't get a chance to show it. While there were two significant injuries sustained during camp - TE Hunter Henry and DB Justin Verrett - I believe this team has the tools to win the AFC West this year. The change at QB for the Chiefs is an interesting one. Mahomes clearly has a bigger upside than Smith. But something to watch will be turnovers. The Chiefs had an outrageous +45 TO margin the L3 seasons, thanks in large part to Smith's ability to take care of the football. Mahomes will not be as cautious as Smith was and I believe that's going to affect the team in the TO department. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers will be entering his 15th season as the Chargers QB and I believe this could be his best offense to work with since the days of LaDanian Tomlinson. He has RB Melvin Gordon, WR Keenan Allen and TE Antonio Gates is back to replace the injured Henry. Last year, the Chargers offense was 4th in total yards, but only 13th in scoring. The Chiefs defense isn't what it used to be and I see LA outscoring them in this one. 10* LA Chargers |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 48 | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 121 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Chiefs/Chargers (4:05 ET): The AFC West is wide open this year. It's a division that's largely been dominated by Kansas City since Andy Reid's arrival, the last two years in particular. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the division. But they have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact, the Chiefs still have just ONE playoff win since Joe Montana retired a quarter century ago. That was three years ago against a Houston team that was quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden. No longer content with going 12-4 and being "one and done" in the playoffs, the Chiefs have made a major move at QB this season, jettisoning Alex Smith in favor of last year's #1 draft choice Patrick Mahomes. With the AFC West more wide open this year, the Chargers seem to have stepped into the favorite role. This was a very good team last year. They actually had a better point differential than Kansas City. But the same old issues plagued the Lightning Bolts, namely an inability to win close games. They dug themselves a huge hole last year, starting the Anthony Lynn era 0-4 w/ three of the losses coming by three points or fewer. From that point on, they went 9-3 SU (w/ one of the losses in OT), but it was "too little, too late." There's no doubt in my mind that this was one of the six best teams in the AFC last year (certainly better than Buffalo), they just didn't get a chance to show it. While there were two significant injuries sustained during camp - TE Hunter Henry and DB Justin Verrett - I believe this team has the tools to win the AFC West this year. Looking at last year's numbers, the Chargers were one of the top Under teams. The Under went 12-4 in their games as they allowed just 17.0 PPG, one of the lowest figures in the league (3rd). But they were actually 15th in yards allowed, so I expect some regression in the points allowed category this year. The same thing is true for the Chiefs, although it could be a bigger problem. While they ranked 15th in scoring defense, they were 28th in yards allowed. The difference here could end up being the fact that a Chargers offense that was 13th in scoring last year was also 4th in total yards. I'd "hold onto my hat" for this one as we should see plenty of scoring with the gunslingers Rivers and Mahomes leading the two offenses. Also Mahomes is likely to turn the ball over more times than his predecessor Smith, so don't rule out a defensive touchdown for Los Angeles here. 10* Over Chiefs/Chargers |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): For a team that went 0-16 SU last year and has just 1 win in its last 32 games, the Browns sure seem to be getting a lot of "love" from bettors heading into Week 1. How could this be? After all, they are playing the Steelers, a team that - to put it mildly - has had their number through the years. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Cleveland franchise has beaten the Steelers only six times in 40 tries. Just three of those wins have come since 2003. Then there's the fact the Browns have not won a season opener since 2004! That's also the ONLY time since '99 they won a season opener as they are 1-18 SU overall w/ 14 of those losses at home. They've lost 13 straight. Why will this year be any different? Well, for starters, the Browns officially hit 'rock bottom' last year, becoming just the second team to ever go winless in a 16-game regular season. Despite my concerns over the coaching staff (not a fan of Hue Jackson), they are a LOCK to improve in 2018. Consider that they were 0-6 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season and had a -28 turnover margin. Those numbers will be near impossible to repeat. There's been a major upgrade at QB as well. Baker Mayfield was the #1 overall pick in April, but for now it's Tyrod Taylor starting under center. Taylor will cut way down on the number of turnovers. He was more than serviceable LY for a Buffalo team that made the playoffs. The overall talent on hand last year was not indicative of a team that should have gone winless. There has been across the board improvement with the roster coming into '18. While I understand it may be difficult to put your faith in Cleveland here, this play is just as much about fading Pittsburgh. The Steelers were lucky to win 13 games LY as they had a league-high eight victories by one score. They were then outclassed in the playoffs, at home, by Jacksonville. They enter this season w/ a major question mark at RB w/ LeVeon Bell continuing to hold out. Unless something drastic changes in the next 48 hrs, Bell will not play Sunday. WR Antonio Brown is also banged up. There are question marks w/ this defense as Ryan Shazier's future remains unclear. Then there is the fact that the Steelers have been a questionable road favorite for years under Mike Tomlin. They are on a 5-13 ATS slide laying four or more points away from home w/ seven outright losses. Ben Roethlisberger's TD-INT ratio has suffered greatly in these games. 8* Cleveland |
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09-09-18 | Bucs +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 48-40 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): New Orleans is getting a lot of love coming into this season. Many have them on their short list of Super Bowl contenders. But I have questions about their ability to duplicate last year's success. First off, the defense made a major leap in 2017, going from 31st to 10th in points allowed. After such a jump takes place, we typically see some sort of regression the following season. I do believe we'll see the Saints give up more yards and points than they did last year. Furthermore, can the Saints possibly be as dominant as they were last year when - at one point - they delivered eight straight wins, seven of them coming by eight points or more? I think not. This is a huge spread for Week 1 and I'll take the points w/ the Buccaneeers. New Orleans started last year 0-2, getting blown out by both Minnesota and New England. The usual defensive issues were present and another 7-9 SU season seemed inevitable. But then came the aformentioned win streak. They were just the 13th team since the merger to win seven straight games by more than a touchdown. That's impressive, but the majority of their victims were bad teams. They finished the year 4-4 over the final eight games, including playoffs. We all remember how the playoffs ended w/ the memorable finish in Minnesota. In addition to the likely defensive regression I mentioned above, the Saints will also have to deal w/ the absence of RB Mark Ingram for the first four weeks (suspended). Ingram isn't the only key player suspended for this game. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston will miss the first three games due to violating the league's personal conduct policy. But Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't that big of a downgrade from Winston. The schedule won't be easy these first three games as the Bucs will play three division champs from LY (also the Steelers & Eagles), but nevertheless I have the team improving in 2018. They overachieved two years ago in getting to 9-7 SU, but were a disappointment LY at 5-11. Look for them to finish somewhere in between this year. There have been major upgrades along the defensive line and that's where they could cause problems for Drew Brees and company. With no Ingram, I have my doubts about LY's Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara being an every-down back. 8* Tampa Bay |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +6.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 59 h 15 m | Show |
8* Arizona State (10:45 ET): The Herm Edwards hire has been met w/ great skepticism, at least outside of Tempe. Herm has been away from coaching for awhile (10 years!) and his last involvement w/ the college game was 1989 as a defensive coordinator @ San Jose State! But the Sun Devils' debut under Edwards definitely saw them "play to win the game" as they blew out UTSA 49-7. However, Edwards didn't seem all that impressed. "I didn't like what I was watching a lot of times," he said afterwards. I like that kind of reaction from a new HC despite holding the opposition to 220 total yards (lots of tackles for loss) and the QB turning in one of his better career performances. On the flip side, Michigan State did not look good in its season opener, barely escaping Utah State at home. There's no doubt that the respective results last week have contributed to this line shrinking some. But it was probably too high to begin with. Tempe is not a fun place to play if you're the visitor, especially in these late night affairs. Just ask Washington, who came in here ranked #5 last year (and unbeaten) and lost 13-7. The Huskies weren't the only ranked team to fall at Sun Devil Stadium last year. Two weeks prior, the same thing happened to Oregon. The Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS as a home dog the L2 seasons, pulling FOUR outright upsets. QB Wilkins, now a senior, threw 4 TD passes last week (career-high) and for 237 yds w/o an interception. Given how Utah State was able to move the ball last week (344 total yds) on the Spartans, I expect the Sun Devils to be able to do the same. Michigan State trailed Utah State 31-30 w/ just under five minutes to go. They then drove the ball 75 yards for a TD to avoid the upset. But throughout the game, they never really could pull away from the Aggies. Sure, a pick six heavily contributed to Utah State getting back in that game. But I wasn't all that impressed w/ Sparty QB Brian Lewerke overall. Over the past three seasons, Michigan State is a horrific 1-8 ATS as a road favorite. The lone cover came in last year's reg season finale at Rutgers. There have been five outright upsets in that stretch, granted three of them coming in that "lost" 3-9 season of 2016. But still, this spot just screams "potential upset" and I'll ride Coach Herm in what could be a statement game for him. 8* Arizona State |
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09-08-18 | Clemson v. Texas A&M +13 | Top | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 77 h 43 m | Show |
10* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): Under the bright lights at College Station, I believe A&M is set to shine in their first real test under HC Jimbo Fisher. Fisher is of course quite familiar w/ the opponent, Clemson, having served all those years on the Florida State sideline. Fisher's FSU teams went 4-4 against Clemson, though things had turned near the end of his tenure in Tallahassee w/ the Noles losing each of the L3 years. Still, Fisher knows what he's up against Saturday night and while that's one of the best teams in all of college football, look for the Aggies to stay within this generous number. Even in the dying days of the Kevin Sumlin era in College Station, A&M still managed to go 2-0 ATS as DD home dogs last year. Before that, it had been some time since they'd been getting 10 or more here at Kyle Field. Take the points. Clemson is on everyone's shortlist for the College Football Playoff and why wouldn't they be seeing as they've gotten there each of the last three seasons. They enter 2018 w/ a bit of controversy on their hands though as they are playing two QB's - Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence. Said Dabo Swinney, "We definitely will play both quarterbacks," Swinney said. "There's no doubt about that. Nothing happened [against Furman] to warrant not playing both those guys." It wasn't a big deal against overmatched Furman, but playing two QB's can be an unneeded distraction. That's why Nick Saban quickly dealt away the idea down in Tuscaloosa. This just seems like a really large number to lay on the road, especially in an unfamiliar setting. A&M's first game went about as easy as Clemson's did. The Aggies won Fisher's debut 59-7 over Northwestern State w/ a 758-251 edge in total yards. Similarly, Clemson had no problem w/ Furman, beating them 48-7 w/ a 531-136 edge in total yards. But those were both tune-ups. Now we're about to find out what both sides are truly made of. We're pretty sure that Clemson is good, but I think A&M is also better than they're being given credit for. Fisher likes both his offensive and defensive lines and I believe playing well in the trenches keeps the Aggies in the game the whole way. This spread should be closer to a touchdown, in my estimation. 10* Texas A&M |
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09-08-18 | Iowa State v. Iowa -3.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
10* Iowa (5:00 ET): The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy has typically been closely contested as five of the past seven meetings have been decided by six points or less. That would lead one to believe that the underdog is typically the "right side" in this rivalry, but note that the dog has actually covered only once in the past five years. Last year, Iowa won 44-41 in overtime after a late TD drive tied things up at the end of regulation. It was their third straight win over their main in-state rival. However, ISU still ended up finishing the year at 8-5 SU, same as the Hawkeyes. The Cyclones were a big surprise in the Big 12 and this year finds expectations a lot higher than normal in Ames (Matt Campbell's third year here). But I'm a bit concerned on how last week's cancellation (weather) will affect this team, which I am banking on regressing in 2018 anyway. Iowa State pulled a lot of upsets last season. They were an underdog in all but two conference games, the exceptions being the obvious ones (against Kansas and Baylor). This year's squad isn't quite as experienced and probably won't have a +10 turnover margin like 2017. Turnovers have actually been a MAJOR issue for the Cyclones in recent years vs. Iowa. They have committed 22 of them in the last nine meetings, leading to 68 Iowa points. That's roughly a quarter of all scoring from the Hawkeyes in those nine games. Their last visit here to Iowa City (two years ago) did not go well as they lost 42-3 in Campbell's second game. Despite the feel of Campbell having this program trending in a positive direction, I'm banking on ISU being somewhat of a disappointment in 2018. Kinnick Stadium (I visited there over the summer) is not an easy place to play. Just ask Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeyes are 15-5 SU at home the L3 years after dismantling Northern Illinois last week 33-7. That was a game where a LOT of people liked the underdog. I've got the Hawkeyes finishing second in the Big 10 West this year (behind Wisconsin obviously) as this should be a better team than last year. As I briefly mentioned above, Iowa State did not play last week as their scheduled game vs. South Dakota State was cancelled due to the weather. Not getting a game under their belt could end up costing them here as Iowa looked good and ready to go in their opener. I get that Iowa State was a great underdog last season, but typically we see that kind of performance regress the following season. 10* Iowa |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
8* South Carolina (3:30 ET): This game is back to being played on the second weekend of the season after a couple year hiatus. These teams finished 1-2 in the SEC East last year (UGA obviously #1), but oddsmakers had it as a total mismatch w/ UGA favored by 23 in Athens. The Bulldogs did win comfortably, but "only" by two touchdowns as it was the Gamecocks who covered the spread. It was UGA's third straight double digit win in the rivalry, and it looks like the same is being expected Saturday. But this is a lot of points to lay on the SEC road and I think Will Muschamp's defense keeps his team in this one. Take the points as the home team is on a 5-1 run in this series. Georgia was a pointspread juggernaut LY, covering 11 of its 15 games, including the National Title Game LOSS to Alabama. They opened #3 this season (behind Bama and Clemson) and clobbered Austin Peay 45-0 w/ a 508-152 edge in total yards. That really doesn't tell us much about this team. This team was pretty fortunate last year in that most of their "hard" games were at home. Their one regular season road game against a ranked opponent was a one-point win over Notre Dame. Something to watch here is that the 'Dawgs have only five returning starters on defense. South Carolina's offense is a lot more talented this year w/ both WR Deebo Samuel and RB Rico Dowdle back from injuries. Neither played in last year's game. Like Georgia, South Carolina's first game tells us little about what is yet to come. They blew out Coastal Carolina 49-15 and now find themselves ranked in the Top 25. Dowdle had 100 yards on 15 carries and the Gamecocks dominated (as you'd expect) w/ a 557-238 edge in total yards. This is easily the biggest home game of the Muschamp era (third year here), so expect a highly motivated underdog Saturday afternoon. It's also the national TV game on CBS. As good as Georgia may be, I don't see them coming in and blowing South Carolina out. To me, Georgia by about a touchdown seems like a pretty likely scenario, which means taking the points is the way to go here. 8* South Carolina |
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09-08-18 | Arkansas State +36.5 v. Alabama | Top | 7-57 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
8* Arkansas State (3:30 ET): You have to tip your cap to Nick Saban for the job done in yet another neutral site season opener. Last week's 51-14 demolition of Louisville (in Orlando) improved Saban to a perfect 12-0 SU (and 11-1 ATS) in season openers since coming to Tuscaloosa and the L8 wins have all come at neutral sites against Power 5 programs. He's covered the spot in seven of those. But as impressive as Bama has been in those games, they've been equally as disappointing the following week - at least to bettors. They are 0-6 ATS (w/ one no-action) in Week 2 the past seven years as they are almost always laying a big number in a game that just screams out "flat spot." It's the same setup this year and this is a play on the situation moreso than the points. Take Arkansas State plus the points. Arkansas State won its opener 48-21 over Southeast Missouri State. QB Justice Hansen threw 6 TD passes, all to different receivers, and completed 26 of 36 pass attempts for 423 yards. But the Red Wolves really didn't break away until the 3Q when they found the end zone four times. Dahu Green was NOT one of the six receivers who caught a TD pass from Hansen, nor will he be catching one the rest of the season as his 2018 is now over due to a broken ankle. Green was NOT a part of the team last year though (sat out as a transfer) when ASU went 7-5 SU, which was actually a DOWN year for them. This is a program that has been to seven straight bowls despite a myriad of coaching changes. While they're clearly NOT on Alabama's level, the Red Wolves are more than capable of staying within this huge number. I don't see Alabama trying to run up the score here. They proved their point against Louisville and have the SEC opener next week at Ole Miss (always a tricky place for Saban). The QB situation seems to have worked itself out here w/ Taovailoa predictably beating out Hurts to be the starter. But no matter who's started for the Crimson Tide, they have consistently failed laying these big numbers at the betting window in Week 2. Last year, they were 43-point chalk against Fresno State and won "only" 41-10 (I had FSU!). That was w/o a SEC game on deck. The Tide's defense is young on the backend (secondary), which should allow Hansen and the Arkansas State offense to make enough plays to stay comfortably within this spread. 8* Arkansas State |
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09-08-18 | Air Force +9.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 58 m | Show |
8* Air Force (2:00 ET): FAU looked shockingly ill-prepared for its season opener at Oklahoma to the point it appeared the team had been simply reading its own press clippings and not practicing over the summer. They lost 63-14, getting outgained 650-324 in the process. The game was 42-0 at halftime and could have been a lot worse had the Sooners not taken their foot off the gas pedal in the 2H. FAU also didn't score until late in the third quarter and their second TD came w/ just over four minutes to go in the game. As ugly as that display was, things won't get any easier this week as they have to turn around and defend the triple option of Air Force. Given how putrid the Owls' defense looked last Saturday, I give the AFA an excellent shot at coming in and pulling the outright upset. Take the points. Service academies always seem to make for good underdogs and Air Force has generally been no exception. They are 7-2 ATS in the L3 years as a road dog. Last week, they were a favorite and crushed Stony Brook 38-0. The Falcons' defense was not impressed w/ what the Sea Wolves had to offer, holding them to just 75 yards and 4 first downs for the game. It marked the 12th consecutive season that the AFA opened the season w/ a win over a FCS opponent at home. This week is going to be tougher, but I don't expect the contingent from Colorado Springs will be intimidated. To the contrary, I expect them to be highly motivated. The last three seasons have seen this team go 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS against non-conference competition. Florida Atlantic was one of the breakout teams in college football last season, going 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS. It will now be interesting to see how they perform going from the "hunter" to the "hunted." I don't know what to make of last week's dreadful showing, other than to say it's looking like a surefire decline under HC Lane Kiffin in year two. The Owls were the most experienced team in the country LY, paving the way for massive improvement. They did bring back 10 starters on defense for this season, but some good that did them last week. They've got only five starters back on offense and looked totally one dimensional LW w/ RB Devin Singletary the only real threat. Air Force has covered 9 of the past 10 times it has been a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* Air Force |
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09-08-18 | Nevada +9 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -106 | 70 h 43 m | Show |
8* Nevada (12:00 ET): All summer long, Vanderbilt had to hear how Middle Tennessee was on "their level." Odds reflected that belief as the Commodores were only slight favorites, at home, going into last Saturday's Week 1 matchup. So much for that belief. The Commies easily dispatched of the Blue Raiders, winning 35-7 and covering the spread easily as 3.5-pt favorites. But now comes a potential "trap spot" as they're off a win over an in-state "rival" and have Notre Dame on deck. They may have gotten the job done last week, but Vandy has never really been a good choice as a favorite, going just 2-8 ATS the L10x it has been asked to lay between 7.5 and 10 pts at home. They're rarely even in this price range and Nevada is a dangerous dog. Take the points. Nevada hung 72 points on an overmatched Portland State squad last week, a nice start after going just 3-9 SU last season. I figure they're a lock to improve in the Mt West as this is Jay Norvell's second season and he's got seven returning starters on offense as opposed to the four he had last year. Things won't be as easy this week compared to last, but it won't have to be in the underdog role. Something else to consider here is that Nevada has had an extra day to prepare as their season opener took place last Friday. They rolled up 636 yards of total offense against Portland State and should be highly motivated going into "SEC country" for the 1st time since 2015 and just the fifth time ever. As lopsided as the game ended up being on the scoreboard, Vandy really didn't pull away until late against MTSU. A defensive TD in the second quarter is what swung the game as it was tied 7-7 at that point. After a 58-yard TD drive to open the game, Vandy's offense struggled to move the ball for the rest of the 1st half, gaining just 31 more yards. Their pass defense was also suspect, giving up 100 yds through the air in the 1st quarter alone. A +2 turnover margin obviously helped as well. Nevada QB Ty Gangi threw for 342 yards in the opener. While that obviously came against an inferior defense, he should put up solid numbers again in this one. Vandy is 1-4 ATS following its previous 5 SU wins and isn't as lucky as a last week when the number is so short. Look for the pointspread to be a factor in this one. 8* Nevada |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): As stated in the promo, I went big on the Eagles when these teams met last January in the Division Round. Oddsmakers overcompensated for the fact Philly was starting Nick Foles - and not Carson Wentz - at QB. Turns out I was right as not only did the Eagles win that game, they would of course go onto win the Super Bowl. With Wentz still out and Foles off a shaky preseason, we're not quite where we were at back in January, but it's close. The Eagles' have gradually been bet down over the course of the summer due to uncertainty over the QB position. Now, as we prepare to start a new season, we're at a point where they sure like a great value at home - at least to me. I say lay the short number. The Eagles return most of the key nucleus that won them the Super Bowl. Remember that Foles was the QB for the entire playoff run and played masterfully. I think it would be a mistake to think he can replicate that kind of performance this season, but he shouldn't have to. With so few dollars invested at QB (Wentz still on a rookie deal, Foles working on cheap deal), the team was able to go out and build an impressive roster around the most important position. This is why they won the Super Bowl. Their offensive line may be the best in the league and could feature as many as FOUR Pro Bowlers. They are relatively loaded (by modern NFL standards) at the skill positions (note: Alshon Jeffrey won't play here). The defense gave up only 18.2 PPG a year ago. Let's also not write off the power of home field advantage. This team is 15-3 SU/13-5 ATS the L2 yrs at Lincoln Financial Field and will be celebrating the Super Bowl win before kickoff. Atlanta figures to be in a competitive race w/ rival New Orleans for NFC South supremacy this year. Last year, under 1st year OC Steve Sarkisian, the offense could not sustain its other-worldly production from the year prior w/ Kyle Shanahan calling plays. That 2016 season saw the Falcons almost win their own Super Bowl, but the key word there is "almost." This was also not a good road team in 2017 as they went 3-7 ATS. There's always been the issue of an offensive decline when you take Matt Ryan and company outdoors. Once again, oddsmakers and (especially) the public are making the mistake of underestimating Philly. I have the Super Bowl Champs defending home turf. 8* Philadelphia |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): I have Florida State improving this season (went 7-6 SU LY), but this is a tough number to lay in the 1st game of the season. It's a new coaching staff in Talahassee w/ Willie Taggart replacing Jimbo FIsher, who elected to bolt to the greener pastures of Texas A&M. Taggart isn't walking into a bad situation by any means (he inherits TWO QB's w/ 12+ career starts); I'm just a little leery of his team being favored by this much in the first game, against a conference foe no less. Va Tech comes in off a 9-4 SU season and will have to replace a number of key players from one of the top defenses in the country a year ago. But they are ranked right behind FSU in the initial Top 25 poll, just one spot back at #20. I'm going to take the points here. Deondre Francois has been named the starting QB here for Florida State. If you recall, he was injuried in LY's season opener vs. Alabama, which is really what started the Seminoles' downfall. The team ended up losing six games, three as favorites, and barely made a bowl. Ending the year w/ a 42-16 win over Southern Miss in the Indepedence Bowl is hardly what the faithful had in mind back in August. The pressure is on Taggart to bring the program back to prominence, which should happen in due time. I'm just not sure we should be expecting any kind of "blowout" in the first game, however. The 'Noles are just 4-11 ATS in conference play the past two seasons. I was surprised to find that these schools last met all the way back in 2012. They're not in the same division, but still, you might have expected a matchup in an ACC Championship Game. But w/ Clemson having passed FSU by in the Atlantic, the Noles haven't even won their division since 2014. Va Tech lost to Clemson in the 2016 ACC Title Game, HC Justin Fuente's first season in Blacksburg. They failed to get back last year even though they ended up losing the same number of overall games (4). Josh Jackson returns at QB for the Hokies and they should be better offensively than last season. Defensively, they likely won't be as strong due to all the departures, but they traditionally field a strong stop unit, year in and year out. 8* Virginia Tech |
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