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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Jazz | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#709) The Utah Jazz had lost four straight before knocking off lowly Brooklyn on Saturday Night. They did it without elite defensive center Rudy Gobert in the lineup – he’s out till mid-December. Make no mistake about it – this is an impact injury for a guy who is averaging a double double while providing a serious shot blocking threat from the low post. Utah’s quotes following the game have a real ‘fat and happy’ feel to them following the end of their losing skid, despite the fact that the win came over the Nets. Derrick Favors: “We definitely needed this one. We came together as a team. We just went out there and played with a lot of energy. Rudy (Gobert) was out, so it was a team effort, defensively, offensively. We came in and brought a lot of energy, and won the game." Despite the Jazz strong defensive reputation and even with Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz had allowed 48% shooting and 108 points per game against them in their previous five contests, bad news with the high scoring Timberwolves coming to town; a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency. And the T-wolves enter this game in a nasty mood, with something to prove following ugly losses to the Warriors and Suns in their last two contests. Head coach Tom Thibodeau, following the ugly loss to the Suns in which Minnesota allowed a pair of 35 point scorers: "We've got to execute and we didn't execute. We got the lead and we gave it away. We took some tough shots and we just couldn't stop them." Expect a better defensive effort here, and better three point shooting as well, after the T-wolves managed to hit just 9-46 from beyond the arc in their last two ballgames. Look for a focused effort from the road favorite, start to finish. Take the T-wolves. |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#264) This is the mother of all bad spots for the road favorite Saints, and the mother of all good spots for the home underdog Bills. The matchups work in Buffalo’s favor here, on both sides of the football. And yet public perception is down on Buffalo, while market support for New Orleans is sky high right now – my power rating number has the Bills as chalk here. When the matchups, situation and value all point in the same direction, we’re talking about a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Yes, the Saints have won six in a row since their 0-2 start. But this is not a team that is going 14-2, destined to never lose another game in the regular season. The quotes coming out of the New Orleans locker room have been pretty clear. The Saints know full well that they are not an elite ballclub. And they’re also a notch or two ‘fat and happy’ following a blowout home victory over their divisional rivals. Buffalo in November – even with fair conditions and gametime temperatures expected to be above 40 degrees – is not the Saints optimal venue; a team built for domes and turf. And the Saints are anything but battle tested during this winning streak where just about everything has broken right for them. This is NOT a ‘max intensity’ spot for the road team. The Saints six game winning streak has been mostly ‘right place, right time’. They faced Carolina before the Panthers fixed their broken offense. They got Jay Cutler in London. They got Detroit on a day where the Saints scored three non-offensive touchdowns. They got Brett Hundley in his NFL starting debut and Mitch Trubisky in his third career start. Last week, it was an ailing Jameis Winston before he gave way to tired retread Ryan Fitzpatrick. That, folks, is anything BUT a tough slate. Tyrod Taylor will be the best QB this team has seen in more than a month! The Saints defense has been great against the pass facing mostly bottom tier quarterbacks. But despite all of those weak QB’s and weak passing games that they’ve faced, New Orleans is still struggling to stop the run. That’s bad news against LeSean McCoy and the Bills power rushing game. McCoy wasn’t fresh last Thursday against the Jets, but the extra rest has him primed for a big bounceback this week. The Bills should get leading receiver TE Charles Clay back on the field here. And the Saints braintrust won’t have any film to watch trying to figure out how the Bills are going to use recently acquired Kelvin Benjamin at WR this week, giving Taylor another downfield weapon. The Bills pass defense has better overall numbers than New Orleans, with a 76.6 QB rating allowed. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) at home this year, gaining a legitimate edge when playing in Orchard Park. Coming off their debacle last Thursday Night, facing road trips to KC and LA, followed by the Patriots over the next three weeks, this IS a max intensity spot for the home underdog. Take the +3, but be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline in a game that the Bills are primed to win in outright fashion. Big Ticket: Take the Bills. |
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11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#265) Three basic points here. First, the Lions aren’t good enough to be laying double digits to anybody. Second, the Lions are in a truly miserable spot for any double digit favorite. And third, if there’s one week to be betting ON the Browns, this is the week! Let’s start from the top. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered two pointspreads – both on the road in divisional matchups against backup quarterbacks. They haven’t been favored by even a full field goal in any game this season. Detroit has won 13 games over the past two seasons. None of those 13 victories has come by more than two touchdowns. The Lions are most assuredly not a blowout team in the Jim Caldwell/Matthew Stafford era. Let’s not forget that Detroit’s -0.7 yards per play differential ranks #30 in the NFL, tied with winless San Fran. They’ve only reached 100 rushing yards once all season. Matthew Stafford has been sacked 26 times already. The Lions red zone offense ranks #27 in touchdown percentage, consistently settling for field goals. That matters A LOT in a pointspread range like this one. Detroit brought their ‘A’ game on Monday Night, winning for only the second time in their last 26 tries at Lambeau Field, a huge, emotionally satisfying victory. Up next? A road trip to face another division rival at Soldier Field in Chicago, followed by another divisional showdown against Minnesota. This is the very definition of a flat spot for a team with no track record of covering pointspreads in this role. That’s most assuredly not the case for the Cleveland Browns, a winless team coming off their bye week – a long term, positive expectation wagering situation. The Browns problems have been two-fold. First, their own red zone execution has been abysmal: dead last on defense, #28 on offense. Secondly, turnovers have killed this squad; an NFL high 21 giveaways compared to a bottom quartile nine takeaways. A bye week can only help in that regard, and the Browns are coming out of the bye as healthy as they’ve been all year. Look for Cleveland’s strong run defense to make the Lions offense one-dimensional . Look for the Lions to come out flat. Expect the back door to be wide open if Detroit does take a two score lead. And expect the hapless Cleveland Browns to cash our winning bet – let’s not forget that four of their eight losses have come by exactly three points……Take the Browns. |
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11-12-17 | Bengals v. Titans -4.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#262) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner betting against the Bengals last week in their 23-7 loss to Jacksonville. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up. Numbers have been lightly edited to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last five games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -9 for the season – their defense has only recovered one fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays.” The Bengals didn’t notch a single sack for the second time in their last three games against the Jags. They lost the ‘penalty yardage’ battle for the sixth straight week. They lost by double digits, SU and ATS, despite winning the turnover battle. And four the fourth time in eight games, Cinci was held to two TD’s or less; an offense that isn’t primed to suddenly get untracked here, even with AJ Green expected back on the field. Plain and simple – I have no hesitation betting against the Bungles these days, especially in games where they’ll need to win (or come pretty darn close) to cover the spread. Make no mistake about it – this Titans team has underachieved so far, in large part due to their red zone failures on offense, ranked near the bottom of the NFL in red zone TD percentage. The return of #1 draft choice WR Corey Davis from an injury absence can only help in that regard, especially since it should open things up for beefy backs Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry between the tackles. Titans WR Rishard Matthews, talking about how having Davis in the lineup will affect their offense: “A ton. That’s his job, is to come in here and be a playmaker. That’s what we all expect him to be. That’s what I expect him to come here and do right away. We got a little piece of it in the beginning of the year. He’s back and ready to go, so expecting big things.” Davis’s own quote: “This is the turnaround right here. I feel it.” There’s no betting bandwagon for Tennessee these days – their only pointspread cover since September came on a late garbage time TD with less than a minute to play against the Colts. This team is primed for a breakout game, Cinci is an ideal opponent to face right now, and the pointspread is downright cheap given the difference in both ability and mentality between these two squads right now. Take the Titans. |
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11-11-17 | 76ers +14 v. Warriors | 114-135 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#713) These teams have played five times since the calendar turned to 2015. The 76ers have covered the spread all five times. Three of those five meetings were decided by five points or less; the other two by 11 and 12, both still competitive in the fourth quarter. Last year, the Sixers came to Golden State and battled the Warriors to the wire, losing by 2 as 17 point dogs. And while the pointspread is a notch or two lower than last year’s meeting on this floor, I have no hesitation betting on Philly as a double digit underdog in a ‘step-up’ game for the road team. The 76ers have only one loss by more than ten points all year. They’ve won outright as underdogs on the road against the likes of Houston, Detroit and Utah; 5-1 ATS when catching points. The Sixers are in max intensity mode here, coming off a blown fourth quarter lead at Sacramento when they lost by a single point. Head coach Brett Brown, following that defeat: "We didn't execute anything down the stretch. We didn't deserve to win." I do not expect this to be a long term problem for the Sixers… Golden State is fat and happy, off five consecutive wins and covers. They’ll get Kevin Durant back in the lineup this evening, a classic NBA spot where big favorites tend to let down a little bit, especially given Omri Casspi’s impressive production while Durant was out. With an awkward early start time, facing a highly motivated defensive minded opponent with something to prove, look for this game to be a battle, not a blowout! Take the 76ers. |
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11-11-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Miami-FL | Top | 8-41 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#165) The pointspread for this game tells you all you need to know, with the Fighting Irish installed as road favorites despite Miami’s strong showing on this field against Virginia Tech last week. Miami is a fraudulent Top 10 team -- period. Their 8-0 record speaks volumes about who they’ve played, not how good they are. Most concerning, the Hurricanes have struggled to control the flow in the trenches, very bad news against the dominant Notre Dame offensive line. Miami is anything BUT fresh, rested and ready, playing down to the final possession in four of their last five games. The ‘Canes last bye week came in early September due to Hurricane Irma. This will be their eighth consecutive game since that unscheduled bye, and I expect it to show as fatigue builds up after halftime. Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier is anything BUT an elite collegiate signal caller. Over the past two games, Rosier is just 27-60 passing with four interceptions. Even playing with a lead against the Hokies last week, Rosier couldn’t avoid key mistakes. And it’s surely worth noting that in their previous two games, the Canes were outrushed 440-198 against Syracuse and North Carolina – not ACC elites on defense, to put it mildly. My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting Notre Dame in their 49-14 blowout over USC last month. Let me use an excerpt from that write-up here, with numbers lightly edited to reflect current realities: “Football games are won and lost in the trenches. The astute handicapper will always assess the matchups on the offensive and defensive lines before placing a wager. Those matchups for this game are so one-sided, and the pointspread is so short that the Irish are a clear choice to this bettor, worthy of Big Ticket status”. “The Fighting Irish are LOADED on the offensive line. Senior left tackle Mike McClinchey and junior left guard Quenton Nelson both have ‘first round of the NFL draft’ potential for next spring. All five starters on that line could play on Sundays”. “Notre Dame ranks #4 in the nation in rushing yards and #1 in the nation in yards per carry, averaging a full seven yards every time they hand the football off. Josh Adams is averaging a whopping 8.7 yards per rush; Dexter Williams is at 10.7 and Deon McIntosh is at 5.7 ypc.” All eight Notre Dame wins this year have come by double digit margins. Their only loss – by a single point to Georgia – looks even better now, with the Bulldogs ranked #1 by the playoff committee; having won all of THEIR other games by two touchdowns or more. And don’t be fooled by the ‘competitive’ final score in the Notre Dame game last week. The Fighting Irish led by 32 before Brian Kelly pulled his starters, leading to three late ‘meaningless’ touchdowns for Wake (meaningless for the game flow, meaning FULL for the pointspread result). Notre Dame’s defense has forced multiple turnovers six times this season, forcing at least one turnover in every single game. Meanwhile their low risk offense has only turned the ball over twice in their last six games combined! If Miami sells out to stop the run, Brandon Wimbush can beat them deep. If they keep their safeties back to prevent the deep balls, the Irish will run the ball down their collective throats. Look for the Irish to get one step closer to the playoff picture with a comfortable win here. Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
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11-11-17 | Virginia v. Louisville -11 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Louisville (#164) We learned a few things about Virginia in their last road contest, a poorly played defeat at Pitt. First, while this team was REALLY hungry to gain bowl eligibility, they were cognizant that it wasn’t going to be their only opportunity to do so. The Cavs got that monkey off their backs last week, pulling the big upset over Georgia Tech and notching their sixth win. Their last winning season and bowl bid came back in 2011 – not a player nor a coach with the program had achieved that goal before. It was an intense back and forth game, followed by an intense celebration. I’m expecting the Cavaliers to be relatively flat this week, kind of like they were at Pitt; a game that broke wrong early and didn’t produce much fight late. I do not trust QB Kurt Benkert to make plays on the road against a solid defense. Benkert’s numbers in ACC play aren’t very good: 53% completions and 5.3 yards per attempt average, compared to 66% and 7.2 ypp in non-conference play. Virginia is not a team loaded with playmaking weapons for Benkert to hit downfield – this is a dink and dunk offense. And the Cavs defense must make the transition from facing an option attack to facing Bobby Petrino and Lamar Jackson running the spead with extra time to prepare. I do not expect that to be an easy transition for Bronco Mendenhall’s stop unit to make. Louisville went into their bye week sitting in last place in the ACC Atlantic Division, something that did not sit well with them during their extra time off. They also still remember Virginia’s near upset last year as 33.5 point underdogs. I’m expecting a focused Louisville squad on Saturday, primed to close out their three game season ending stretch against Virginia, Syracuse and Kentucky with some fireworks. There’s no Cardinals betting bandwagon at. Louisville has yet to cover a single pointspread as a favorite in 2017, which leads to cheap pointspreads like this one by the time we get to mid-November. Yes, Louisville is a notch or two down from last year’s 9-4 squad, and yes, Virginia is a notch or two better. But Louisville was -33.5 on the road at Virginia last year. This year they’re -11 at home; a FOUR TD power rating adjustment from the 2016 meeting. That’s too much of an adjustment, and -11 (or anything close) is too cheap! The reigning Heisman winner is primed for a breakout showing….. Take Louisville. |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +17 v. Ohio State | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#143) I understand that the Spartans are a very popular ‘public’ choice in early start action on Saturday, while the wiseguys are clearly taking the Ohio State side. That’s fine – I’ll stand with the Joes against the Pros when it comes to this matchup! Mark Dantonio has coached circles around Urban Meyer in every recent meeting. Sparty was a 3 TD underdog last year against Ohio St. They lost 17-16. In 2015, Sparty was +16.5 on this field in Columbus and won outright 17-14. 2014? Michigan State hung 37 on the Buckeyes, the most Ohio State allowed all season. 2013? Michigan St knocked off Meyer and the Buckeyes in the Big 10 Championship Game, winning by double digits as the underdog. In 2012, it was a 17-16 slugfest. In the five previous Dantonio – Meyer meetings, Ohio State has only been LEADING by more than two touchdowns for a total of five minutes, back in the 2014 game, and they’ve never won by that margin. It’s been a tight series, even in years where Ohio State has won the national championship, and even when Sparty went 4-8 last year. Michigan State is getting better as the season progresses. Their young defense has grown up in a hurry, and QB Brian Lewerke has shown dramatic improvement from his early season play, coming off back-2-back 400 yard passing games. Ohio State, on the other hand, has just seen their defense get shredded in back-2-back weeks, giving up 243 rushing yards to Iowa last week as a 17-17 tie turned into a 55-24 loss. That came just one week after Penn State hung 38 on them right here at the Horseshoe. The Buckeyes still have all kinds of elite defensive talent, but it’s not the most confident stop unit in the world these days. And Meyer is navigating tricky waters this week when it comes to motivation for bouncing back. We saw some quit in Ohio State last week, and for an entire roster that has never been out of the college football playoff discussion this early before, there are legitimate questions about their motivation between now and the Michigan game. All the stats, the season long power ratings and the statistical profiles force this pointspread to be where it is; out of whack with current reality. Joes seem to recognize this more than pros when it comes to this matchup. Be sure to take at least a little taste of the moneyline in this one…..Take Michigan State. |
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11-11-17 | Duke -2.5 v. Army | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Duke (#141) I’ve got two basic rationales for a wager on Duke in early start action on Saturday. First, spot advantages don’t get much bigger than this one for the Blue Devils. Second, Duke is primed to shut down the Black Knights more than their defensive statistical profile might indicate; offering us line value even with the Blue Devils priced as short road chalk here. Let’s start with the spot. After a grueling stretch of nine straight weeks with a game, the Blue Devils finally got a bye last week to rest and recuperate. Duke won their first four, then lost their next five. Their chance for bowl eligibility -- salvaging their season following that 4-0 start – rests with this game, this week, and they know it. I expect Duke to bring maximum intensity here. The same cannot be said for Army. At 7-2, they’ve already clinched a rare bowl bid, and the Black Knights are coming off their biggest win of the season; a 21-0 shutout over Air Force. Army’s seniors had been winless against their rivals, and the Black Knights didn’t need to throw a single pass all afternoon, playing from ahead – it was a max intensity game played under advantageous circumstances. While this Army squad is every bit as good as last year’s team, let’s not forget two things about the state of the program. First, last year’s 8-5 season was their one and only winning campaign of the 21st century. And second, they’ve been favored by double digits in four of their seven wins – it’s not like the Black Knights have been knocking off ACC caliber foes to get to 7-2. In fact, their win over Air Force was their first as an underdog; favored by at least six points in every other game that they won. Duke beat Army 44-3 in 2015 and 13-6 last year. Note the common theme – Army’s offense didn’t work against the Blue Devils defense. I expect that to be the case this year as well. David Cutcliffe’s squad preps for the option every year, because they face Georgia Tech in conference every year. Cutcliffe usually schedules another option team like Army the previous two years or Navy back in 2013, when a nine win Middies squad suffered their worst loss of the season, 35-7, against Duke. Duke has pulled off a pair of outright upsets against Georgia Tech in the last three seasons as well; clearly a ‘bet-on’ team when they face option attacks (6-1 ATS L7 tries). Take Duke. |
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11-10-17 | Pacers -3 v. Bulls | 105-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#505) There’s an extreme sense of urgency for the Indiana Pacers tonight as they travel to Chicago in the midst of a four game losing streak. Veteran forward Thaddeus Young: "It's still early in the season. But you lose four in a row, you have some things to talk about. You try to nip that in the bud before it gets out of hand." Emerging young center Myles Turner: "You can't have a negative mindset this early in the season, but we definitely have to get the ball rolling. Chicago is a must win for us." There’s no shame in the Pacers recent skid – they were underdogs or pick ‘em priced in every game, all while trying to get their star big man Myles Turner acclimated and back in the rotation following a seven game absence. And, following two sets of back-2-backs resulting in a stretch of six games in nine nights, the Pacers had a much needed off day yesterday, primed to bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Here’s the key quote from Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg, trying to make lemonade out of lemons after the Bulls second half comeback attempt fell short at Toronto on Tuesday: “The big thing with this team is when you have a learning opportunity, you grow. And I think our guys have responded well to that." For a young, rebuilding team like the Bulls, it’s all about ‘learning opportunities’ and ‘growing’. Read between the lines of that quote and you’ll see the reality of the 2017-18 Bulls. Chicago might win a handful of games on hot shooting nights. They might win another handful of games when their opponents look past them. But the Pacers won’t be looking past Chicago tonight and the Bulls – even with Bobby Portis back in the lineup following his suspension – still rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring only 94.2 points per 100 possessions. Expect a comfortable win for the road chalk. Take the Pacers. |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -6 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Push | 0 | 34 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#111) As we saw so clearly again on Monday Night, teams playing with a backup QB behind center tend to struggle against the better defenses that they face. We can expect that once again on Thursday as Drew Stanton and the Cardinals face off against the still elite Seahawks defense on a short week. Drew Stanton got ample playing time behind center for the Cardinals when they lost at home 36-6 in their 2015 season finale against Seattle. Stanton was the starter when the Cards lost 19-3 to the Seahawks in 2014. And those are Drew Stanton’s two previous career outings against Seattle – both downright ugly defeats in which Arizona’s offense didn’t work one iota. So what changes on this short week? Not much for Arizona, from an offensive standpoint. Bruce Arians got a CAREER high 37 carries from Adrian Peterson on Sunday; bad news for an aging back on a short week. In a similar spot last Thursday – off a particularly heavy workload -- LeSean McCoy gained only 25 yards on 12 carries in an ugly loss for the Bills. Bruce Arians, talking about his primary offensive weapon right now: “We’ll see how he feels …. I wish we had a full week. Obviously, we won’t be able to feed him that many times on Thursday night.” Here’s what Stanton had to say about the Cardinals run-heavy gameplan at San Francisco last Sunday: “The game plan was fantastic. I loved it. I loved every single part of it. Each day we got the install, I was getting more and more excited what was going on.” Too bad for Stanton that the Cardinals won’t be able to utilize that same gameplan this week! And there’s truly no comparison between the Seahawks stout defense and the injury riddled Niners defense that AP shredded last week. This is a Seahawks spot, all the way! We’ve seen Seattle dominate on this field repeatedly – three double digit wins and a tie on their last four trips to Arizona. Seattle outgained Washington nearly 2:1 on Sunday, but they missed three field goals and two 2 point conversion tries and committed a franchise record 16 penalties – fixable problems. Coming off that loss, now trailing in the NFC West race, I expect a sense of urgency from the road favorite here. Against the hapless Cardinals, urgency matters in a game the road favorite should win by a TD or more. Take the Seahawks. |
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11-08-17 | Heat -5.5 v. Suns | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#507) Here’s the key quote, from Suns veteran big man Jared Dudley, after Phoenix lost their third straight game on Monday: "We are going to have a problem with consistency throughout the year….Since Jay took over, we might have had one or one-and-a-half practices. We've had a lot of games, and there is only so much you can go over, so much film you can do. I think he's a done great job so far. I just think that we need to ride this stretch before next week beginning a couple practices and going over certain things that we need to go through on the defensive end." The Suns have gotten a little bit better since Jay Triano took over for Earl Watson following their dismal start, at least from an effort standpoint. But from a defensive standpoint, the Suns remain a bottom five team. It’s the same story on offense, no surprise for a team that suspended, then traded their starting point guard, leaving D-League veteran (but undrafted NBA rookie) Mike James at the point. This is not a strong homecourt either, as clearly evidenced by the Suns home losses to the Nets and Lakers already. Miami is hungry after losing two of three to open up their West Coast swing. Team captain Hassan Whiteside was benched in the second half of their loss at Golden State on Monday; from all indications a positive situation moving forward. Head coach Erik Spoelstra: “This is one game. He understands how important he is to our team to play at a high level, high energy level, so we'll move on to Phoenix and look to have a much better game." The Heat have won by six points or more four times on their last five visits to Phoenix. They beat the Suns by 15 in their last game against them, primed to take care of business with a relatively comfortable road victory tonight. Take the Heat. |
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11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Utah (#714) Joel Embiid is the moral equivalent of Lebron James when it comes to how his team plays when he’s not on the floor. The Cavs have been nothing short of awful in games that LeBron sits in recent seasons, a ‘bet-against’ team all the way without their superstar on the floor. It’s the exact same story in Philly, without the dramatic pointspread adjustment when Embiid doesn’t play. The results do not lie. Over the last two seasons, the 76ers have played like a 50-win team with Embiid on the floor. When Embiid is on the bench, the Sixers have played like a 12 win team. He sat out one previous game here in the new campaign, at Toronto. The 76ers were nine point underdogs in that game. They were down by 17 after the first quarter in a 32 point, non-competitive defeat, their single worst loss of the season. Embiid is sitting tonight, which speaks volumes about how the coaching staff is viewing this West Coast road trip – they’ve got a winnable game against the Kings up next, followed by a ‘statement’ game against Golden State, then the two LA teams at the Staples Center. This team has won four straight, in anything BUT a ‘max intensity’ spot tonight. Utah throttled Philly in both meetings last year, winning by 17 at home and by 25 on the road. Embiid sat for one of those meetings and was limited to 19 minutes due to foul trouble in the other as the likes of Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors dominated the low post for the Jazz. Those matchup edges for Utah in the paint haven’t been altered in the offseason. And the Jazz are in a ‘circle the wagons’ spot off back-2-back losses, including a dismal 137-110 blowout loss at Houston over the weekend. We’ve seen the Jazz bounce back well before – their lone previous two game skid ended with back-2-back 15 point blowout wins. Quin Snyder’s squad is a perfect 4-0 ATS as home chalk this season, an emerging trend worth noting. And from all indications, the Jazz have this game circled after getting bombed by the Rockets. The Jazz hadn’t allowed an opponent to shoot better than 53.5% from the floor against them since last February, but they’ve allowed that in each of their last two games. Wing Joe Ingles: “It’s pretty hard to forget. That [expletive] was embarrassing, really.” Coach Snyder: “You just have to refocus and be solid. We weren’t disciplined. There’s always slippage throughout the season. We had some slippage last night and got our tails kicked by one of the best offensive teams in the league. You learn from it. We don’t ignore or forget about it.” The quote that stands out the most is this one, from center Ekpe Udoh following that loss to Houston: “It was a letdown. Next time we’ll be ready.” I concur! Big Ticket: Take the Jazz. |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 105 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket NFL Game of the YEAR: Take Green Bay (#474) Remember that Green Bay Packers team that we saw before the bye week losing badly at home to New Orleans? Well, you should probably forget that game – it’s a long way in the rear view mirror now, and the Packers team that we saw before the bye is not the one we’re likely to see coming out of the break. But the betting markets aren’t seeing it that way, installing the Lions as road favorites. That, folks, is a downright silly overreaction based pointspread, making the Packers as home dogs on Monday Night the single best bet I’ve seen in the NFL all season, truly worthy of GOY status. Here are my four basic premises. First, the Packers offense, other than Aaron Rodgers, is as healthy as they’ve been all year. Second, Brett Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but he’s more than capable of stepping up here. Third, the Lions aren’t very good and they never win in Green Bay. And fourth, from a situational standpoint, this is a CRUCIAL game for Green Bay in the division; a team that is still expected to get Aaron Rodgers back before the playoffs. Coming off their bye, we can expect the Packers ‘A’ game on Monday Night. The Packers are expected to have all five starting offensive linemen this week. They had one of the five healthy against New Orleans fierce pass rush before the bye. Tackle David Bakhtiari: “Being healthy is key. The bye week was definitely nice — especially with how banged up we were. Us offensive linemen, we were pretty much limping into this bye week. I think that’s big, too.” Head coach Mike McCarthy: “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together.” TE Martellus Bennett will be back on the field as well, key for a young QB like Hundley. Hundley was a projected first rounder coming out of UCLA until a disappointing senior season. Hundley showed well in the preseason, making plays with his feet as well as his arm. Hundley wasn’t good against the Vikings or the Saints in his first two outings, but Green Bay’s offensive line was a big part of that, as were the quality of the two defenses that he faced. Hundley stayed in Green Bay during the bye and got extra one-on-one work in with the coaching staff. Detroit isn’t anywhere near the Vikings or Saints when it comes to their pass rush or their ability to control the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the football. Let me make this very clear – Brett Hundley is a ‘bet-on’ QB this week, coming out of the bye! The Lions are 1-25 SU at Lambeau Field since 1992, a house of horrors for Detroit year after year after year. This is certainly not a venue that bodes well for the Lions as road chalk. Detroit comes in off yet another frustrating defeat; their third straight loss, gaining more than 480 yards of offense against the Steelers without getting the ball into the end zone even once. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered one pointspread, and they’ve yet to cover ANY pointspreads this year as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Packers are 9-2 SU after the bye under Mike McCarthy. Both SU losses came on the road against teams that were undefeated at the time. Each of their last seven wins out of the bye week have been relatively comfortable, by a TD or more – they’re coming back rested and focused, consistently. Green Bay hasn’t quit on their coach or their season; a team that is still very much alive in the playoff race despite Aaron Rodgers injuries and their current two game skid. Expect a strong showing on Monday Night in a game where the betting markets appear to be reading the wrong tea leaves. Extraordinary value here! Big Ticket GOY: Take the Packers. |
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11-05-17 | Celtics -3.5 v. Magic | 104-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#707) The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward five minutes into the season. Boston lost on opening night, then lost the following night at home to Milwaukee. The betting markets immediately devalued Boston; a team with a whole host of new faces just learning to play with one another. That was a mistake! Head coach Brad Stevens has worked his magic. The Celtics haven’t lost since that defeat to the Bucks on the second night of the season. That includes road wins, by margin, at Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Miami and OKC; all of whom are as good or better than the Magic team they’ll face today. It’s surely worth noting that Stevens’ gameplan carved up Frank Vogel’s defense in all three meetings last year, with the Celtics sweeping the series, scoring 117+ in every game. The Celtics enter Sunday with the #1defense in the NBA, allowing fewer than 96 points per 100 possessions. That’s bad news for a Magic team with point guard issues right now. Shelvin Mack started at the point in Orlando’s 22 point home loss to Chicago on Friday. DJ Augustin is hurt. Elfrid Payton could return today off a seven game absence, but I’m not convinced he’ll be able to outplay Kyrie Irving in stellar current form in his first game back off a lingering hamstring injury. Cheap price to lay! Take the Celtics. |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#470) The Chiefs defense is completely broken, but the betting markets haven’t realized it yet. Their season long offensive stats are lying, and the betting markets haven’t noticed that either. They’re on a short week off a very satisfying Monday Night win over a divisional rival at home. And they’re facing an undervalued foe. Put it all together and it’s not hard to make a strong case for fading the overrated Chiefs. Two weeks ago, we saw a terrible Raiders offense that hasn’t worked against anybody since Week 2 pick apart the KC pass defense to the tune of 417 yards and 31 points. Then last week, we saw a Broncos team with no passing game whatsoever and an injury riddled, struggling offensive line run the ball all night against the Chiefs; to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, 177 yards on the ground. This is not a good defense; unable to stop the run OR the pass right now. The season long stats clearly show the Chiefs with the most explosive offense in the NFL – like the Falcons had last year; #1 in yards per play. Those numbers are lying when it comes to projecting forward. RB Kareem Hunt was insane for the first five weeks, notching a 50+ yard rush in every single game! Now that opposing defenses are gameplanning for him, Hunt has gained 21, 87 and 46 yards in his last three contests, with only one run longer than 15 yards. But the impact of that bevy of Hunt early season big plays is still having a HUGE impact on the stat sheet. Both the pointspread and the sharp money follows that stat sheet pretty closely, giving savvy bettors value AGAINST KC, because their current offense is currently more like a middle of the pack unit: 5.6 yards per play over the past three weeks. I understand that Zeke Elliott is an impact running back. I also understand that the Cowboys offensive line is healthy now, and they’ve dominated the last two games. Dak Prescott is on fire, leading the team to 28+ points in each of their last five ballgames and making good decisions with the football week after week – only 2 INT’s during that span. And the trio of Alfred Morris, Rod Smith and Darren McFadden are more than capable of filling the void left by Elliott’s suspension. Should Elliott get reinstated by the courts – which is quite possible as I write this up on Thursday – you’ll be getting the best of the number if you bet it early – NOW! Take the Cowboys |
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11-05-17 | Bengals v. Jaguars -5.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Jacksonville (#458) Yes, the Bengals ‘saved’ their season thanks to a Carlos Dunlap pick six in the fourth quarter against the Colts last week. And, yes, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the smallest home field edge for any team in the NFL in the modern era. But those two bits of information are, quite literally, the only reasonable cases to be made for the road underdog. And, as you’ll see, there are ample reasons to think that the Jags are primed to beat Cinci by a TD or more on Sunday. There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last four games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -10 for the season – their defense hasn’t recovered a fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays. The Jags defense is as dominant as any stop unit in football; a playoff caliber unit. They’ve been blowing up the line of scrimmage all year, sacking QB’s and forcing turnovers in bunches. That’s how the Jags have held four of their first eight opponents to nine points or less; winning those contests by a combined score of 130-23 - all blowouts. I expect the Bengals turnover issues to continue this week. Blake Bortles is not a QB most bettors are comfortable laying points with; understandably so given his repeated struggles in this particular ATS role. But this one spot – coming out of their bye week, playing at home where they’ve yet to win all year, looking for back-2-back wins for the first time all year – is a max intensity spot for the home team. From local reports, the Jags certainly have the feel of a motivated, focused, bet-on team in practice this week; something I’m not sensing from the road underdog with the lame duck head coach. Lay it with Bortles, but expect Leonard Fournette to be the difference maker on offense! Take the Jaguars. |
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11-04-17 | BYU +14.5 v. Fresno State | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 82 h 40 m | Show | |
Take BYU (#401) Preseason power polls had BYU in the Top 40 nationally, while Fresno was routinely ranked outside the top 100 teams in college football. If this game had been played in September, BYU would have been the road favorite. Instead, they’re more than two touchdown underdogs. That, folks, is ‘value’ defined, especially since BYU’s problems have not been due to an injury barrage – the roster they had in August hasn’t been decimated. BYU is coming off their best game of the season; giving them a much needed jolt of energy. Fresno is coming off their worst game of the season, a real confidence sapper for a program with no recent history of winning. Fresno has been an ATS powerhouse, suffering their first ATS loss of the entire season last week, a team that’s built up a pretty big bandwagon here in Las Vegas. BYU has been on the other end of the spectrum, opening the season with an 0-8 ATS mark prior to last week, including a stretch of seven consecutive SU losses, six of which came by more than two touchdowns. Again, that’s the definition of ‘value’ – one team’s power rating has moved up almost every week this year, the other team’s rating has moved down almost every week. Not last week, though! And last week’s results are meaningful for both squads. BYU needed a win in the worst way, coming off a humiliating loss as road chalk at East Carolina. Defensive lineman Sione Takitaki: “Definitely getting this win feels really great and I know it does for the coaches and for us players to finally get a win and get going from there. We have Fresno next week so we’re not going to hang our hats on this one.” Head coach Kalani Sitake: “Having optimism isn’t good enough. Just saying things will get better isn’t good enough. You have to combine that with hard work and preparation. When you get those and you do it right, then you have confidence and that shows on the field. Although it wasn’t perfect (Saturday), there’s a lot of things we can still do. It’s a lot easier to make those corrections when you win.” Read between the lines there. It’s clear that the Cougars are in a much better place mentally than they were last week at this time. And while I do expect a better showing from Fresno this week than last, the Bulldogs have a problem in the trenches against BYU’s superior size and strength. The Cougars are truly battle tested, having faced the likes of LSU, Wisconsin, Utah, Mississippi State and Boise. Fresno’s signature win came against San Diego State, non-competitive in either ‘step-up’ non-conference game because they were unable to bang in the trenches with the big boys. Jeff Tedford’s team isn’t built for blowouts against superior physical teams. And it wasn’t a lack of focus last week that Tedford can harp on here. Fresno center Aaron Mitchell: “There wasn’t a lack of focus out there. There wasn’t a lack of focus at practice. We need to be more dialed-in and we need to play better, bottom line.” Even if they’re dialed in this week, extending the margin against the Cougars won’t be easy. Fresno would be thrilled to win this game by a touchdown. So would I! Take BYU. |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 5 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Virginia Tech (#341) Honestly, the pointspread for this game tells you all you need to know. Miami is a fraudulent Top 10 team. Their 7-0 record speaks volumes about who they’ve played, not how good they are. If you’re looking for a ‘signature’ win from the Hurricanes, keep looking. I guess their one point escape against Georgia Tech would qualify – the only winning team (4-3, barely) they’ve beaten since their opener against Toledo from the MAC but make no mistake about it – Mark Richt’s squad is anything BUT battle tested. Miami is also dealing with a handful of key mid-season injuries. Their running game hasn’t worked since Mark Walton got hurt, outrushed 440-198 over the past two weeks against Syracuse and North Carolina. QB Malik Rosier hurt his shoulder last week and is ‘a little sore’ this week, according to Mark Richt. Starting cornerback Dee Delaney is a question mark here as well. But the bigger issue is in the trenches, where Miami has struggled to dominate all season long. Virginia Tech owned both sides of the line of scrimmage in last year’s 37-16 smackdown over the ‘Canes in Blacksburg, winning the rushing battle 251-42. And there’s ample reason to think the Hokies are capable of enjoying that kind of dominance on the ground against that suspect Miami front seven on defense this year as well. My clients and I cashed a winning bet on Virginia Tech as home chalk against North Carolina two weeks ago; a 59-7 beatdown. Here’s a brief excerpt from that write-up: ‘Legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster sounds pretty confident that the backdoor won’t be open here: “We’re not anywhere close, in my opinion, to where we can be and the kids see that and are working that way. That’s still exciting, that we can continue to grow and develop as a unit and as a team.” Over the last three weeks, Virginia Tech has had a bye, and cruised to 59-7 and 24-3 victories. That defense that Bud Foster was touting as ‘not anywhere close’ to their potential just gave up a grand total of ten points in 120 minutes of football, with neither foe reaching 250 yards against them while they forced five turnovers in the process. This is most assuredly a ‘bet-on’ stop unit and QB Josh Jackson continues to impress running Justin Fuente’s offense, even in hostile road environments. The Hokies are relatively fresh, rested and ready for their challenge; battle tested after facing West Virginia away from home as well as truly elite Clemson. Miami is anything BUT fresh, rested and ready, playing down to the final possession in each of their last four games. The ‘Canes last bye week came in early September due to Hurricane Irma. This will be their seventh consecutive game since their last break, and I expect it to show. Dramatically! Big Ticket: Take Virginia Tech. |
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11-04-17 | Texas +7 v. TCU | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#381) I’ve used this same basic write-up to support the Texas Longhorns in both previous tries as an underdog in Big 12 play. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Now with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. They covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. Their defense shut down mighty Oklahoma State the following week, another wire-2-wire ATS cover as an underdog. When you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last 14 tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-3. That’s Straight Up! They’re 14-0 ATS, the only SU losses coming against teams with Top 10 talent: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” TCU QB Kenny Hill is remarkably inconsistent, coming off a truly miserable showing at Iowa State. Hill has put up some big numbers against lesser defenses, but his three worst showings of the season have come against the three best defenses that he’s faced in what’s been a very easy schedule when it comes to opposing defenses. Texas has already held Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor to their lowest scoring output in any game this season. Yes, that’s four of the five Big 12 opponents that they’ve faced. They’ve already seen Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold, battle tested against elite QB’s and strong passing games. I’m not expecting a big game from Kenny Hill here. Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is expected back in the lineup this week, although he could split snaps with Shane Buechele, who was excellent last week against Baylor. Herman on Ehlinger: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” After playing in a litany of ‘right team at the right time’ type ballgames to get off to their 7-1 start, the Horned Frogs are primed to fall back to earth on Saturday. Take Texas |
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11-04-17 | Syracuse +5 v. Florida State | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Syracuse (#331) At this stage of the campaign, there’s nothing to salvage for Florida State. A team that came into the campaign with national championship dreams is now 2-5, off back-2-back losses as favorites against Louisville and Boston College. And head coach Jimbo Fisher isn’t pushing any of the right buttons to get his team to respond. Here’s Fisher’s quote prior to last week’s game at Boston College, following the loss to Louisville: “We're coaching a season. We have to teach the players how to do it. They've done it before. We'll continue to do it the rest of the year. I have total confidence in our coaches and what they can do, and the situations we put them in. We've got to learn to coach three to five plays better, and get them to understand how to play better." Florida State then proceeded to lose 35-3 as favorites to BC. For the sixth time in seven games, their defense forced one turnover or less. For the seventh time in seven games, the offense failed to reach 30 points. Fisher has never been in this spot before, coaching a losing FSU team down the stretch of a dismal campaign. I’m not expecting it to go well. And the Seminoles basic and biggest offensive weaknesses – a frosh QB who doesn’t look good under pressure playing behind an offensive line that has only one senior in the two-deep – isn’t likely to get fixed anytime soon. Florida State has yet to cover the pointspread in a single game this season, but the wiseguys continue to factor their overall talent level into the equation – the markets haven’t appropriately crashed on this team because their personnel grades out so well on paper. Syracuse is at the other end of the spectrum in that regard. Based on pure talent differential, this pointspread is too short. But with FSU playing like a ‘dead’ team and Syracuse showing all kinds of mettle in hostile road environments, basing this pointspread on pure talent differential is not something I’m willing to do. The Orange are the antithesis of Florida State from a value standpoint – their last ATS loss came back in the first week of September, with five spread covers and a push in their last six contests. We’ve seen them go on the road and battle for a full sixty minutes against the likes of LSU and NC State. We saw them beat mighty Clemson in straight up fashion and hang tough at Miami despite committing four turnovers. Fresh, rested and ready off their bye week, the Orange are live to win this one in SU fashion. Take the points, but be sure to take at least a taste of Syracuse on the moneyline. Take Syracuse. |
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11-03-17 | Pacers v. 76ers -5.5 | 110-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#708) The Sixers are ‘bet-on’ all the way right now, while the Pacers are in a prime bet-against spot this evening, setting the stage for what should be a relatively one-sided affair. Since their 0-3 start, the Sixers are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS, the lone loss coming by a single point on a buzzer beater against the mighty Rockets. The Joel Embiid/Ben Simmons combo has been even better than expected – Philly’s got a ‘Big 2’ right now capable of competing with any duo in the league. And the Sixers are loaded with perimeter shooters to take advantage of the Pacers relatively soft D; a better team (at least for now) without having to get injured rookie Markelle Fultz acclimated to the NBA game. Philly just covered as home chalk against Atlanta in their last contest, showing clear signs of being trustworthy in this role. The Pacers have won three straight and covered the spread in five of their last six. But Indiana is in that classic trap spot this evening. They just beat the Cavs in Cleveland as ten point dogs, a HUGE win for this team. They’re best player, Myles Turner, could be back in the lineup tonight following a two week absence. Put those two factors together and this game has all the makings of trouble for Indiana – fat and happy off some big wins & fat and happy that their low post stud has returned. The Pacers currently rank #3 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, shooting 48% from the floor, 39% from three point range while averaging 111.5 points per game. This team is not built to maintain those ridiculously hot early season shooting stats; a regression waiting for the opening tip tonight! This is a mismatch being priced as a competitive contest. Take the 76ers. |
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10-31-17 | Thunder v. Bucks +2 | 110-91 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#506) Oklahoma City had two great strengths last year. First, Russell Westbrook had one of the most epic seasons in the history of the NBA, named MVP after averaging a triple double for the entirety of the campaign. And second – the hidden factor – was the strength of the Thunder frontcourt, as OKC finished with the single best rebounding differential in the league, giving them extra possession after extra possession. That was then, this is now. OKC still has the star power, with Westbrook joined by offseason acquisitions Carmelo Anthony and Paul George. But the moves that brought those two scorers into town have had residual effects, most notably on OKC’s ability to dominate the low post in the absence of a trio of departed big men: Enes Kanter, Domantas Sabonis and Taj Gibson. A Thunder team that ranked #1 in rebounding margin last year currently ranks #18, outboarded by nearly two rebounds per game. The Bucks were +12 on the boards in their double digit win at Atlanta on Sunday, despite the absence of role playing center Greg Monroe in the lineup. They’ve lost their two previous ‘statement’ games at home to the Cavs and Celtics; their only two losses of the season, and they appear to be taking tonight’s game particularly seriously, with a four game road trip starting tomorrow. Last year’s Rookie of the Year, Malcolm Brogden:"It shows us where we’re at. It’s a good test for us.” Quite frankly, the Bucks are ready to start passing these tests! Fear the Deer! Take the Bucks |
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10-30-17 | Magic +8 v. Pelicans | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#709) The betting markets are showing a notch or two too much love for the Pelicans tonight, while not showing much love for a Magic squad that is clicking on all cylinders in early season NBA play. The advanced metric stats show Orlando’s edge fairly dramatically. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have the #2 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA, averaging 111 points per 100 possessions, running Frank Vogel’s offense quite efficiently. Only the Warriors have been better; New Orleans trails in the stat rankings. It’s a similar story on defense, where the Magic rank #12, allowing 101.1 points per 100 possessions. The Pelicans have picked up right where they left off last year, ranked #19 on D while allowing more than 105 points per 100 possessions. The stats AND the standings both show Orlando as a team that isn’t getting the betting market respect that they deserve just yet. The markets have knee-jerked towards the Pelicans in early betting action on Monday, with Orlando playing on the second night of back-2-backs, while New Orleans is rested. But Orlando goes ten deep these days, not a team with a limited rotation. We saw them in a road back-2-back once already this season, losing at Brooklyn in the first game, but bouncing back with a 21 point win at Cleveland on the second night. Meanwhile, New Orleans has been a money burner as home chalk throughout the Alvin Gentry era; not a trustworthy team to lay an inflated price with tonight. Take the Magic. |
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10-29-17 | Nuggets v. Nets +4.5 | 124-111 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Brooklyn (#510) I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. Brooklyn has won every previous home game this season in SU fashion, a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on this floor. They’re coming off a complete no-show at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks on Friday Night, a prime bounceback spot. Nets forward DeMarre Carroll, talking about the team’s lack of focus on Friday: “We came out the gate and they were the more aggressive team. Credit to them. They basically just kicked our butts. They threw it up at the goal and just knocked us out of the way and went and got it." Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson talking about his team letting down after a big upset win over Cleveland: “We have to play better and we have to handle success a little better. That is the next step for this team. We have good leaders. We will bounce back." Denver has a grand total of one pointspread cover in five games so far, an overvalued commodity in early season play. The Nuggets youthful point guards Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay are not a ‘let’s lay points with them on the highway’ duo. The Nuggets, too, cannot be trusted coming off a win, and let’s not forget that Denver lost SU right here at the Barclays Center as 4.5 point road favorites last year as well. Take the Nets. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Redskins | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#269) To call the Redskins an injury riddled mess right now would not be an overstatement. How bad is the injury situation in Washington on a short week off their home loss to Philly on Monday Night Football? Bad enough that Jay Gruden CANCELLED PRACTICE on Wednesday, opting for a walk-through instead. There aren’t many NFL coaches willing to cancel a Wednesday practice for any reason, but with 17 contributors unable to suit up, it was the only decision that Gruden could make. The Redskins biggest injury issues are on the offensive line. The likes of Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, Spencer Long, Morgan Moses and Ty Nsekhe were unable to suit up for practice on Thursday either. Gruden’s quote doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor: ““It has its challenges, that’s for sure. You walk out of the tunnel with Long, Nsekhe, Scherff, Williams and Moses and those guys aren’t practicing, it’s a little bit different when you go in the huddle. Heading into the game against the Redskins, Washington’s options on the offensive line are very limited. Their only healthy tackles for Thursday’s practice session were TJ Clemmings, a guy they picked up off the waiver wire after preseason, and Andreas Knappe, who was signed to the practice squad just last week. They also have undrafted rookie Tyler Catalina and Tony Bergstrom, signed on Wednesday after getting released by the Ravens on the roster, a truly uninspiring quartet. The Redskins defense is just as injury riddled as their offense. Five defensive backs are hurt, including both starting cornerbacks. Standout rookie pass rusher Jonathan Allen just went on IR, as did defensive leader LB Mason Foster. The Redskins just allowed 34 points in the final three quarters against Philly on Monday Night and there’s no reason to think it’ll be any easier for that stop unit this week, because the elite Cowboys offensive line is getting healthier! The Cowboys offensive line had their best game of the season coming out of their bye at San Francisco last week, buoyed by pro bowler Tyron Smith, as healthy as he’s been all season. No surprise, then, that Zeke Elliott enjoyed a huge afternoon, while Dak Prescott didn’t take a sack. If the weather is rainy, as expected, the Cowboys dominance in the trenches should only grow. And, of course, the Cowboys are primed to exploit the Redskins weaknesses up front with DeMarcus Lawrence and David Irving combining for 12.5 sacks already. Let’s not forget the fact that the Cowboys are true road warriors: 8-2 SU in their last ten meaningful road games. Dallas is the better of these two teams right now, and I expect them to show it! Take the Cowboys |
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10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints -9 | 12-20 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 3 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#254) Since their 0-2 SU and ATS start to the campaign, the Saints have come on like a freight train, notching four consecutive wins and covers. Last week’s win at Green Bay was particularly impressive, because they got the two score victory despite an awful, turnover plagued start on the road on grass in rainy conditions – not ideal Saints weather. The key to their resurgence has been a defense making plays all over the field; the antithesis of what we’ve seen from the Saints defensively in any recent season. A Saints secondary that has flat out lacked talent in recent seasons has been buoyed by first round draft choice CB Marshon Lattimore, who is playing lockdown man coverage on a weekly basis. Safety Kenny Vaccaro, another former first rounder, has been nothing short of stellar since returning to health. The pass rush has been there too, led by Cameron Jordan and Alex Okafor. And the results clearly show the ‘night and day’ improvement. Over the past five weeks, the Saints have held opposing QB’s to a 53.6 QB rating, lowest in the NFL. They rank among the top four defenses in yards allowed, points allowed and forced turnover during that span. New Orleans still has full season stats that reflect their ugly first two games, but those games are a long, long way in the rear view mirror now. That’s bad news for a Bears offense that gained all of five first downs last week, managing just a single field goal for their 60 minutes of playing time. Mitch Trubisky has completed a grand total of 24 passes for 348 yards in his first three games as an NFL starter, but the Bears have been in every game because they haven’t been facing a litany of explosive offenses, to put it mildly. That changes this week in New Orleans, where the Saints have averaged scoring 36 points per game; not an offense that Chicago can expect to shut down. If the Bears are going to hang around in this contest, they’re going to have to put up points in bunches. And that’s just not something Chicago is capable of doing these days. Note the two games – both road contests, like this one – where the Bears fell behind early and were forced to rely on a passing game that lacks downfield receivers. They lost by 3 TD’s each time, at Tampa and at Green Bay; completely unable to rally back from a deficit. That doesn’t change this week in a blowout spot for the home team. Take the Saints. |
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10-29-17 | Panthers +2 v. Bucs | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#257) This is a HUGE game for both squads. Tampa is 2-4, losers of three straight and on the verge of a complete collapse. Carolina is sitting at 4-3, but they’re coming off ugly back-2-back losses; sitting on the brink themselves. But only one of these two teams is primed to step up with a winning effort this week – the road underdog. Tampa’s problems aren’t getting fixed anytime soon. There’s clear dissention in the locker room, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Plain and simple – this injury riddled unit isn’t buying what defensive coordinator Mike Smith is selling, as clearly evidenced by these quotes: Offseason free agent acquisition TJ Ward, unhappy with the defensive rotations following their loss to Buffalo last week: “I did not come here to rotate. I did not come here to be a part-time player. I came here to make this defense better." Pro bowl defensive linemen Gerald McCoy, talking about the scheme: “I just play what they call. I don't have a say so in what we run, I just kind of go with it. I'm a team guy, so I do what they ask me to do. Do I feel like I could've been more effective in a different way? Yes. But I'm a team guy. It's not about Gerald. Whatever coach calls is what I'm going to run.” Smith’s issues calling plays for the defense are likely to continue to be a problem this week. For the season, the Bucs have only four interceptions, while allowing a whopping 295 yards per game through the air. They rank dead last in the NFL in both sacks and sack percentage. And they’re dealing with cluster injuries at cornerback. One starter, Robert McClain, is in concussion protocol, unlikely to suit up. The other starter, Brett Grimes, missed last week with a shoulder injury and hasn’t practiced this week either. McClain has played 215 snaps over the last four games. The only two experienced backups on the roster have combined for five snaps during that same span. The season ending injury to DE Noah Spence isn’t likely to help their struggling pass rush. No pass rush and an injury riddled secondary is a very hard thing for any NFL team to overcome, let alone a team that is clearly beset with chemistry issues between the coaching staff and the players. In short, the Bucs are a clear ‘bet-against’ team moving forward, especially with QB Jameis Winston unable to practice all week with a bum shoulder. I do not expect this defense to get any better in the short term, a stop unit ranked among the bottom five in the NFL in key metrics like yards per play allowed and opposing QB rating allowed. Don’t be fooled by Cam Newton’s struggles interacting with the media. That does not make Cam Newton a ‘bet-against’ QB by any stretch of the imagination. He’s still at 64% completions for the season – best of his career – while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt – second only to his Super Bowl season over the last five years. The problem has been turnovers, more than any other factor; a team that allowed a pair of 75+ yard defensive scores last week, now sitting at -9 for the season – only the Browns are worse. Facing a Bucs defense that doesn’t force turnovers is exactly what Cam Newton and this offense need. And, no, this locker room isn’t turning on itself like the one in Tampa seems to be, despite their level of frustration. WR Kelvin Benjamin: “I think everybody is frustrated. The whole offense was frustrated because the defense was giving us 3-and-outs and we didn’t put points up.” Offensive coordinator Mike Shula, trying to explain why they’ve struggled over the last two weeks after putting up 60 points in SU road wins at Detroit and New England in weeks 4 & 5. “We’re not as far off as we think. It feels like we are, and we all feel terrible.” The Panthers should have both LB Luke Kuechly and safety Kurt Coleman back in the lineup this week, two huge adds for a stop unit that gave up a grand total of five first downs and one field goal last Sunday. They’ve got a comparable offense, the MUCH better defense, the better locker room situation and the better chance at turning things around and salvaging their season. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take Carolina. |
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10-28-17 | 76ers -1.5 v. Mavs | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#709) Abbreviated write-up on a very busy college football Saturday. The Sixers are ‘bet-on’ all the way right now, while Dallas is in a tough spot tonight, setting the stage for what should be a relatively easy victory for the road favorite. Since their 0-3 start, the Sixers won SU as road underdogs at Detroit and came within an Eric Gordon buzzer beater of knocking off mighty Houston. Joel Embiid is in tonight, and Ben Simmons is a triple double threat every time he takes the floor. The Sixers are loaded with perimeter shooters to take advantage of the Mavericks soft D , ranked #28 in defensive efficiency. The Sixers are catching Dallas in a tough situation, playing their third game in four nights after back-2-back grueling, physical contests against the Grizzlies. Dallas opened 2-13 SU last year and are showing every indication that they’ll be lottery bound again this season. And this is not a particularly strong homecourt, with the Mavs losing three times in their first four home games, twice as favorites against lowly Sacramento and Atlanta. Philly beat this team 116-74 in their most recent meeting, and we can expect another comfortable win for the Sixers tonight. Take the 76ers. |
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10-28-17 | Texas Tech +20 v. Oklahoma | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Texas Tech (#201) Oklahoma’s last pointspread cover came back in September, against Tulane. The only two games that the Sooners have won by more than two scores this year came against UTEP and Tulane, teams that couldn’t compete physically with Lincoln Riley’s squad in the trenches. Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in big 12 conference play, in large part because their defense can’t stop anybody. Three of the Sooners four Big 12 foes have hung 35+ against them; a defense picking up right where they left off last year – their worst defense of the decade. Texas Tech hung 59 points on Oklahoma last year, the third hotly contested, competitive game between these two schools in the last four seasons. Texas Tech had 42 first downs and 854 yards of offense in that contest. And there’s absolutely no reason to think that the Red Raiders won’t be capable of trading touchdowns with the Sooners once again this year. Oklahoma couldn’t get stops against Baylor. Iowa State was held to seven points at home against Texas, but they hung 38 on the road in Norman. Kansas State’s backup QB led them to five TD’s against the Sooners last week. Facing a Red Raiders offense that has put up 127 points in their three previous road games, we can expect the Sooners stop unit to struggle once again on Saturday. Texas Tech hasn’t lost a game by 20 points all year. They traded points with Oklahoma State, losing by only seven against the Cowboys potent offense. They traded points with West Virginia, hanging 35 on the Mountaineers. They traded points with Arizona State, winning 52-45, a victory that looks even better now considering the Sun Devils stellar defensive showings over the last two weeks. With a 9-3 ATS mark in Kliff Kingsbury’s last dozen tries as a road underdog, the Red Raiders sure look like ‘live’ dogs again this week! Take Texas Tech. |
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10-28-17 | TCU -6.5 v. Iowa State | 7-14 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 21 m | Show | |
Take TCU (#193) When Gary Patterson has a good team – like he does this year – the Horned Frogs tend to be a strong ‘bet-on’ team when they hit the highway. TCU has dominated all three road games so far this season, winning 28-7 at Arkansas, 44-31 at Oklahoma State and 26-6 at Kansas State, all easy wins and covers. There’s been a pretty big class difference between these two teams in recent seasons. Last year, the Horned Frogs were -24.5 in a 41-20 win over the Cyclones. The year before that, it was -21 and a 45-21 final score. In 2014, it was TCU -35, and a 55-3 win for the favorite. The betting markets are pricing in a substantial improvement for Iowa State here in 2017. I’m not convinced that it’s warranted. Iowa State has gone 3-9, 2-10, 3-9 and 3-9 SU since 2012. This year, they’re 5-2, including an outright upset as 31 point underdogs at Oklahoma. Of course, the toughest part of their schedule is still to come, and Iowa State lost by double digits while scoring only seven points in their last try as a home dog against Texas. And former walk-on Kyle Kempt is no elite starter at QB, taking a real step up in class against this defense! TCU ranks #1 in the nation in total defense, best in the Big 12. Senior QB Kenny Hill has shown his maturity repeatedly in hostile environments, with a 15-3 TD – INT ratio and a 70% completion rate. And the Horned Frogs are balanced, running for 170+ yards six times in seven games. There’s a legitimate class difference here that is not reflected in this pointspread; a game that the Horned Frogs are primed to win by a TD or more. Take TCU. |
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10-28-17 | Virginia +3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Virginia (#137) Virginia played their worst game of the season last Saturday, blown out 41-10 at home as TD favorites against Boston College. Pitt played their best game of the season last Saturday, taking advantage of a tired, depleted Duke team that hasn’t had a bye week yet, winning outright on the road as nine point underdogs. I’m expecting both teams to revert back to the mean this week. The quotes out of the Virginia locker room this week were fully focused on the task at hand, not a team that is primed to suffer a hangover following their first loss since early September. The back half of their schedule is brutal: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech, teams that are a combined 21-6. The Cavs are one win shy of bowl eligibility and they expect to get it here. Senior LB Micah Kiser: “We’ve been playing well, we had one bad game and that doesn’t define the season. There’s no question we can get back…... We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high. But we want to play with confidence. You win some, you lose some. We lost this one. We got smacked in the mouth. There’s no way around it. (But) there’s no talk about the past. There’s no problem.” Cavs junior RB Jordan Ellis: “This game will really humble you. I thought we were better because we were 5-1. This brings us back down a little bit. This gives us a chance to correct the mistakes we have and go into next week with a chip on our shoulders because we kind of got embarrassed at home.” It’s not like the Cavs can’t win on the highway. We saw them go to Boise and dominate the Broncos on the blue turf; a 42-23 smackdown as 14 point underdogs and won SU by six on the highway in their only other try, at North Carolina. Senior QB Kurt Benkart has a 15-4 TD – INT ratio. Pitt’s star senior cornerback and team captain, Avonte Maddox is hurt, and his likely replacement, Phillipie Motley isn’t 100% after dealing with his own injury issues, setting up Benkart for a big day. Let’s not forget how badly this defense got torched at home when they faced Oklahoma State’s strong passing game. It wasn’t much better against NC State, another double digit home loss. And it’s certainly not like Pitt is primed to trade points with opponents like they did last year. Senior starter Max Browne is out for the year, and backup Ben Dinucci has been underwhelming to say the least, just 8-18 at Duke last Saturday. Pat Narduzzi is notably short on offensive playmakers this year, and Pitt is not the better of these two teams. Big Ticket: Take Virginia |
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10-26-17 | Clippers v. Blazers -2.5 | 104-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#708) The Blazers are a ‘bet-on’ team right now, but the betting markets haven’t caught up with their hot start. Remember, the Blazers were as hot as any team in the NBA down the stretch last year, rallying to snatch the #8 seed in the West after acquiring Jusuf Nurkic from Denver at the trading deadline. They’ve picked up right where they left off as an undervalued commodity, with Nurkic and fellow defensive minded frontcourt mate Al Farouq Aminu controlling the paint. Make no mistake about it -- Portland dominating the rebounding battle on a nightly basis; the #1 team in the NBA in rebounding margin AND in percentage of available rebounds that they’ve been able to snare. The Clippers biggest strength is their ability to dominate the glass, winning the rebounding battle in each of their first three ballgames. That’s not likely to happen tonight, certainly not by any sort of a margin. And the injury bug has really sapped whatever limited depth the Clippers had coming into the campaign. Doc Rivers bench is paper thin right now, bad news against arguably the deepest Blazers team of my lifetime. Portland point guard Damian Lillard: "We have so many guys we can count on. Each game we've played, guys have come in and gotten the job done. They're helping us produce wins. When you're doing that over a period of time, you see you're a deeper team.” Look for the Clippers first game outside the Staples Center to be a SU and ATS defeat. Take the Blazers. |
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10-26-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -7 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Northern Illinois (#108) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet, because the concept here is very simple. Eastern Michigan has hung tough with everybody this year, with each of their last six games decided by a touchdown or less. But we cannot expect the Eagles ‘A’ game tonight. They’ve lost each of those last five close games, including a pair of them in overtime. Last week’s OT loss to arch rival Western Michigan was the worst of the bunch; the type of defeat that won’t make it easy for Eastern Michigan to get going tonight. Travelling, on short rest, coming off that OT loss, this is one spot where the Eagles are primed for a sluggish showing. That’s not the case for Northern Illinois! Unlike Eastern Michigan, the Huskies are physically fresh, coming off an easy 48-17 blowout at Bowling Green. The Huskies have a strong homefield for the MAC, winning each of their last two home games by 3 TD’s or more. With frosh QB Marcus Childers settling into the starters role -- 7 TD’s to 1 INT over the last three weeks – and ‘stretch the field’ receiver Chad Beebe back on the field (6 catches for 124 yards last week), we can expect the Huskies to win by margin against the exhausted, demoralized Eagles. Take Northern Illinois. |
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10-24-17 | Jazz +4.5 v. Clippers | 84-102 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Take the Utah Jazz (#711) The concept here is simple. The Clippers didn’t face anybody playing ‘A’ level defense in the preseason, because nobody plays ‘A’ level defense in the preseason. In their first two regular season games, the Clippers faced the Suns and Lakers, arguably the two worst defensive teams in the NBA. Tonight, LA is laying points to a team that, without a shadow of a doubt, plays elite level defense on a nightly basis. I expect that to be a real problem for LA…… To make matters worse for the Clippers, they’re playing without their expected starting point guard, European sensation Milos Teodosic. And they’ve struggled to match up with the Jazz repeatedly, as clearly evidenced by their first round playoff loss to them last spring; a series where Utah won three times on LA’s home floor including Games 5 and 7. Look for the Jazz interior duo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to have their hands full against Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors this evening, leaving the Clips without a legitimate matchup edge anywhere on the floor. That’s bad news for any favorite…..Take the Jazz |
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10-22-17 | Broncos +2 v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#473) My clients and I have already cashed one Big Ticket winner betting against the Chargers at the StubHub Center in LA. It was a sin of omission not to have more than one winning bet so far against a team with legitimately no home field advantage whatsoever. This week, they’re facing a superior opponent, fully motivated off an embarrassing loss last week; an opponent they’ve already been dominated by once this season. And LA is the favorite here, laying points! I’m not buying it! Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. The numbers show that very clearly through the first six weeks of the season, with a 3:3 TD-INT ratio in three games at home, compared to a 7:2 ratio in three games on the highway. No surprise, then, that the Chargers have yet to win a game or cover a pointspread in their new home. Yet the markets continue to factor in a home field edge for LA. Expect the Broncos to have as many fans (or more) at StubHub as the Chargers do; exactly what we saw in LA’s home losses to the Eagles, Chiefs and Dolphins. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. They’ve lost both previous tries as favorites this season SU and (of course) ATS. The Chargers were largely non-competitive for three quarters of the first meeting between these two squads. Trailing 24-7 in the fourth quarter, LA took advantage of a pair of Broncos turnovers in Denver territory as well as a missed Denver field goal to make the final score (24-21) look closer than the game actually was. Now the Chargers are returning home, fat and happy, off back-2-back tough road wins. Of course, the two wins came against the hapless Giants (0-5 at the time) and the hapless Raiders (major disappointment, injured QB and a four game losing streak). The markets, doing what they do, are convinced that LA is primed to make a run here, but I’m not buying that argument one iota. LA didn’t beat the Giants and Raiders as much as those two sorry teams beat themselves. And they’ll be facing a Broncos squad primed to make a statement off their dismal ‘no-show’ at home against the Giants last week. The Broncos defense was flat last week in a game where they had precious little film to prepare for what they were going to see against the Giants new look offense. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row, especially off a loss and facing a divisional foe. For the season, the Broncos have held foes to 3.0 yards per carry, the #1 ranked run defense in the NFL. The Chargers rank #31 in that category, opponents averaging a full 5.0 yards per carry differential. Denver has a big defensive edge against the pass too, ranked #6 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed compared to the Chargers #16 rank. Plain and simple: Denver is the better of these two teams, and I expect them to show it! Wrong team favored. Big Ticket: Take the Broncos. |
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10-22-17 | Cardinals v. Rams -3 | 0-33 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#468) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner with LA last week in their double digit win at Jacksonville. While the pointspread this week isn’t as user friendly – I can’t go back to the well with LA for another Big Ticket Report -- I have absolutely no hesitation supporting the Rams with a standard sized wager in London against the Cardinals. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game. That defense played their best two games of the season over the past two weeks; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. “The Rams turned the ball over five times against Seattle two weeks ago, their first ‘turnover plague’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad, and they fixed it last week, even facing the top notch Jags stop unit. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 185 pass attempts for the season, while only taking nine sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football.” The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Cardinals offense; more than a half yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco, at Dallas and at Jacksonville. And LA took this trip last year, a fact that matters considering the trip to London is a brand new thing for the Cardinals. It’s worth noting that Arizona had to fly from the West Coast while the Rams flew out straight from Jacksonville. Arizona has played decently at home this year. Away from home, they’ve been a complete disaster, losing 35-23 at Detroit, barely escaping with a three point OT win as TD favorites at Indy, and blasted 34-7 at Philly. This isn’t a new issue. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, ‘Zona is a woeful 2-6 ATS as an underdog away from home. Both covers came in late December against teams playing for nothing. And there’s no comparison between the Rams solid stop unit and the injury riddled Bucs unit that Carson Palmer and Adrian Peterson shredded last week. Chalk worth laying! Take the Rams. |
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10-22-17 | Ravens v. Vikings -5.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the Minnesota Vikings (#458) Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. After a win against the struggling Raiders, it was more of the same for the Baltimore offense last week; held to ten points and less than 300 total yards in their OT loss at home to the Bears last week. Don’t be fooled for a moment about the final score of that game. The Ravens got a kick return TD and a punt return TD – otherwise the Bears would have blown them out. And I’m not anticipating two more special teams TD’s this week! The Ravens offense is clearly broken. From a yards per play standpoint, they rank #30 out of 32 NFL teams. Joe Flacco’s QB rating is 66.1 right now. His previous CAREER low was 80.3 as a rookie in 2008. They aren’t likely to have TE Maxx Williams (ankle) or deep threat WR Breshad Perriman (concussion) available, both downgraded to doubtful. TE Ben Watson has a bum knee, WR Mike Wallace has a bad back and WR Jeremy Maclin hurt his shoulder. Facing a staunch Vikings defense – a stop unit that has held all four home opponents under 20 points – we cannot expect the Ravens to suddenly come alive with TD’s in bunches. Baltimore’s defense is quickly becoming every bit as injury riddled and problematic as their offense. Run stuffing DL Brandon Williams has a foot injury, and the Bears ran for 231 yards against them last week, the third time in four games that Baltimore has given up 165+ on the ground. Cornerbacks Jimmy Smith, Jaylen Hill and safety Ladarius Webb are all questionable or doubtful, none of them healthy. Linebacker Tim Williams won’t play. This is truly a nightmarish injury situation, leaving Baltimore as a clear ‘bet-against’ team; far weaker than their 3-3 record would indicate. Minnesota is not! They’ve enjoyed a STRONG homefield edge in their new digs, winning three of their first four home games by double digit margins. In fact, Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in their first twelve regular season games at US Bank Stadium; an emerging trend worth riding especially when facing a clear ‘bet-against’ foe. Take the Vikings. |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3.5 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 52 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame (#402) Football games are won and lost in the trenches. The astute handicapper will always assess the matchups on the offensive and defensive lines before placing a wager. Those matchups for this game are so one-sided, and the pointspread is so short that the Irish are a clear choice to this bettor, worthy of Big Ticket status. When these two teams met at the end of the season last year, Notre Dame was an injury riddled mess at the tail end of a dismal 4-8 campaign. USC rolled to an 18 point victory as 17.5 point favorites. That was then, this is now. In 2017, it’s USC dealing with a significant injury bugaboo right now – their defensive line is in absolute shambles. Brandon Pili, a true frosh from Alaska, is the only healthy, active regular at defensive tackle. Starter Josh Fatu is in concussion protocol. Five star recruit Kenny Bigelow quit the team. Frosh Marlon Tuipulotu just underwent season ending surgery. Junior Malik Dorton is still dealing with a knee injury he suffered last month. And let’s not forget that starting LB Porter Gustin is out with a broken toe and torn bicep, while starting defensive end Rasheem Green isn’t practicing with an ankle sprain. A cluster injury problem like that would be bad against any foe. Against Notre Dame in South Bend, it’s a freakin’ disaster! The Fighting Irish are LOADED on the offensive line. Senior left tackle Mike McClinchey and junior left guard Quenton Nelson both have ‘first round of the NFL draft’ potential for next spring. All five starters on that line could play on Sundays. Notre Dame ranks #5 in the nation in rushing yards and #2 in the nation in yards per carry. Josh Adams is averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per rush; Dexter Williams is at 10.7 and Deon McIntosh is at 5.8 ypc. Dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush is expected back in the lineup this week, although backup Ian Book played well in his staid in their last game at North Carolina. All five Notre Dame wins this year have come by 20 points or more. Their only loss – by a single point to Georgia – looks better now, with the Bulldogs a Top 5 squad that won all of THEIR other games by 20 points or more. They’ll be facing a Trojans squad in pointspread freefall, overvalued from Day 1 this year to the tune of a 1-6 ATS mark. Notre Dame’s defense has forced multiple turnovers in each of their last five games while their low risk offense has only turned the ball over seven times all season. USC’s offense has committed at least two turnovers in every game, unable to take care of the football. That’s a HUGE problem in a game where the Irish are primed to push USC around at the line of scrimmage and put themselves back in the college football playoff picture. VERY cheap price to lay given the circumstances! Big Ticket: Take Notre Dame. |
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10-21-17 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech -20.5 | 7-59 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Virginia Tech (#360) My clients and I cashed a winning bet against North Carolina last week. Let me start this write-up with an extended excerpt from what I wrote last week, all of which is still pertinent to for their trip to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech on Saturday. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “North Carolina is as strong a ‘bet-against’ team as you can find in college football this year. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels anyway after they sent their QB Mitch Trubisky to the NFL after his junior season, along with the likes of Elijah Hood and Ryan Switzer – impact offensive playmakers. A home loss to Cal in Week 1 showed that very clearly. And that was BEFORE the injury bug really started to strike. “Nine guys who have started a game for the Tar Heels this year are now out for the season, and that doesn’t include a whole host of shorter term injuries and another whole host of guys who got hurt in camp, before the season even started. With a pair of ineffective QB’s throwing to a receiving corps that has lost their top five guys to injury, playing behind a weak offensive line and without any semblance of a running game to help them, the Tar Heels offense is stuck in the mud; producing only 48 points in their last four ballgames combined. “North Carolina’s defense is every bit as injury riddled, if not more. And unlike the offense, that defense was short on talent to begin with! The Tar Heels lost their one true leader on defense; the guy who called the plays in the huddle in Andre Smith. He’s out for the year. Senior strong safety Donnie Miles, the team’s career leader in starts, is hurt as well, as is senior DL Tyler Powell, sophomore safety DJ Ford and several others. The only team that North Carolina has been able to stop all year was Old Dominion…” While the Tar Heels are collapsing, the Hokies are in a great spot. They’re fresh, rested and ready off a bye week, looking to open up the offense for young QB Josh Jackson (13 TD passes, 66% completions and 55 rushing attempts already). This defense dominated the Tar Heels last year in a 34-3 win at Chapel Hill, and that was when North Carolina’s offense was elite. Legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster sounds pretty confident that the backdoor won’t be open here: “We’re not anywhere close, in my opinion, to where we can be and the kids see that and are working that way. That’s still exciting, that we can continue to grow and develop as a unit and as a team.” Hokies head coach Justin Fuente has been an excellent bully; 5-1 ATS as home chalk against FBS foes here in Blacksburg. This one gets ugly for the road dog! Take Virginia Tech. |
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10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#392) My clients and I cashed a winning bet with the Texas Longhorns last week. Let me start this write-up with an excerpt from what I wrote last week. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Here in Austin, with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. Last week, they covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. And when you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last dozen tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-2. That’s Straight Up! They’re 13-0 ATS, the only SU losses coming away from home against teams with Top 5 talent: Oklahoma and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is ‘bet-on’ all the way right now. He threw for 278 yards and ran for 110 vs. the Sooners last week. Herman: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” The Texas defense hasn’t allowed anybody to score more than 27 against them in regulation since their opener against Maryland. They’ve already seen Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, battle tested against elite QB’s and strong passing games. This is, by far, the best defense Oklahoma State has seen since TCU, and we certainly remember how that Cowboys offense got shut down at home by the Horned Frogs….. Take Texas |
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10-20-17 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | 132-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Take the Phoenix Suns (#720) Pardon my language, but if you missed the Lakers play last night, you missed a real shit-show. Luke Walton didn’t have his team ready coming out of training camp, and it’s a very flawed team to begin with. Last year’s Lakers squad was the single worst defensive team of the DECADE on a points per 100 possessions basis, yet somehow they managed to get worse defensively in the offseason. Lonzo Ball has no chance of staying in front of the Suns; one of three defensively soft, very young ‘one and dones’ from college in the Lakers starting lineup. Let new starting center Brook Lopez tell you about how young LA really is right now: “It’s weird being one of the older guys on the team. That turnaround happened so quickly. A year or two ago I was playing with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce and all of a sudden the next few years I’m playing with 19-, 20-year-old kids. It just flopped so fast.” It wasn’t just bad defense that plagued the Lakers in their opener last night – their bad offense was on full display as well, most notably the 19 turnovers. With a rebuilt roster and a rookie point guard, playing on the second night of back-2-backs, on the road, I’m not expecting any sort of immediate turnaround from LA. The Suns were thoroughly humiliated on opening night, trailing by 25 at halftime on their way to a 48 point home loss to the Blazers. Head coach Earl Watson was “embarrassed”. His quote: “Portland came in here and basically kicked our butts as bad as they could.” Wing Devin Booker following the game: “It's going to be hard for me to sleep tonight.” The Lakers provide Phoenix with the ideal opponent to bounce back STRONG! Take Phoenix. |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | 42-38 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#304) Houston laid an egg at Tulsa last Saturday, losing 45-17 as two TD favorites. Memphis had a +4 turnover margin, and needed every one of those turnovers to win in their three point victory, failing to cover as 3.5 point chalk. But with Memphis sitting at 6-0 SU right now and the Cougars coming off an ass kicking, there’s no surprise that the markets have been moving in favor of the Tigers since the opener. That money is moving in the wrong direction if you take these quotes in mind, taken from the local papers in Houston and Memphis this week. Every quote – literally, every one I found – points towards the Cougars as short home chalk. Houston senior defensive end Nick Thurman: “As soon as we got back home (late Saturday night) we had to bury it and move on. Our whole focus is on Memphis. There's nothing we can do about that. There's now a sense of urgency around here.” Houston junior cornerback Isaiah Johnson: “There's been a lot of talk about how we used to do it in the past. But that's not important right now. It's about the 2017 Cougars. Not the 2015 team. Not the 2016 team. It's about this year. What do we want to leave as our legacy? We still have that chip on our shoulder that we lost a game we weren't suppose to lose. That loss only made us stronger. It also brought us together." Houston senior safety Terrell Williams: "Our season's far from over.” Memphis head coach Jay Norvell knows the dangers of this spot, one week after the Tigers woke up to find themselves in the Top 25 for the first time since 2015. He certainly doesn’t like the scheduling spot off the intense win over Navy: “I'd like to say that when the schedule came out I didn't notice, but I noticed. I noticed how these two games backed up to each other. It's a short week and we know we have to adapt some things to how we prepare, but we've got to go get it." Two weeks ago, Memphis got torched for more than 300 passing yards against UConn. Last week, they were gashed on the ground, but turnovers saved them against Navy. Houston’s not a team that has been plagued with turnovers repeatedly this season, and they’re in revenge for a four point loss at Memphis last year. Look for the Cougs to get that revenge tonight! Take Houston. |
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10-18-17 | Hornets v. Pistons -3 | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#708) The Pistons open their new home court tonight with a roster that looks very similar to last year’s. Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris, Jon Leuer, Stanley Johnson and Ish Smith all return with a comfort level in Stan Van Gundy’s systems. The Pistons new pieces, most notably the ultra-intense Avery Bradley and his backup Langston Galloway, appear to fit right in to what Van Gundy is preaching. And it’s certainly worth noting that despite last year’s disappointing campaign, Van Gundy had them ready out of training camp – the Pistons won each of their first five home games by double digit margins. Charlotte, too, was a disappointment last year. Unlike Detroit, head coach Steve Clifford is dealing with a lot of moving parts right now. The Hornets remade their frontcourt in the offseason with the addition of Dwight Howard, a disappointment everywhere he’s been in recent seasons. Their top two wings are both out, with Nicholas Batum injured and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist away from the team dealing with a personal matter. Clifford’s quote is ‘bet-against’ all the way: "We're playing without two starters for this first stretch. We don't have the depth, nor are we as strong to start the games as we will be a month from now. That's always a factor. But it also gives us a chance for these other guys to grow here early in the year." I don’t want ‘growing’ teams at +3 on opening night against a home favorite primed to make a statement at Little Caesars Arena tonight. Take the Pistons. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#276) To say this is a ‘circled’ game for the Tennessee Titans is something of an understatement. The Titans have lost 11 consecutive games to the Colts, with Indy and Houston dominating the division and Tennessee ranked nearer to Jacksonville in the AFC South, relegated to ‘bottom feeder’ status. All four losses to Indy over the past two seasons have been hotly contested games, decided by a TD or less. And the Titans are coming off poorly played back-2-back losses. First, they got Deshaun Watson’d in Houston, then they followed that up with a dismal offensive showing with Matt Cassel behind center at Miami last Sunday. In 50 dropbacks over six quarters on the highway over the past two weeks, Cassel netted only 132 passing yards (counting the eight sacks he took). Normal starting QB Marcus Mariota is expected back in the starting lineup tonight. So we’ve got a Titans team with an axe to grind against a divisional rival that has owned them in every reason season. And we’ve got a Titans team with a chip on their collective shoulders, looking to wipe away the stink of their subpar showings over the past two weeks. They’ve got the optimal setting to do that – at home, in front of a raucous Monday Night Football crowd. And there’s no question about which of these two squads has the superior team in 2017. Over the course of their last four games, the Titans have faced three elite defenses – the Jaguars, Seahawks and Texans, all ‘top quartile’ units. Now they’ll take a big step down in class against the suspect Colts stop unit, a defense that allowed 46 points in each of their first two road games; ugly losses to the Rams (by 37) and the Seahawks (by 28). It’s surely worth noting that Tennessee beat that same Seattle team rather comfortably here at Nissan Stadium. We all know that Andrew Luck is still hurt, but Jacoby Brissett has filled his big shoes admirably, guiding Indy to a 2-2 record in his four starts. But Brissett is likely to be running for his life tonight, thanks to cluster injuries on the Colts offensive line. With their top three guards all injured, the Colts are expected to start undrafted second year OL Jeremy Vujovich and undrafted rookie Kyle Kalis at the guard spots this evening. That’s bad news against this defensive front! It’s surely worth noting how well the Titans defense played last week despite Cassel’s ineptitude, holding the Dolphins to 12 first downs and 178 yards, giving up just 3.0 yards per play. No surprise here if Dick LeBeau’s stop unit is a very tough nut for the Indy offense to crack this evening, while the Colts defense does not compare favorably to any of the stop units that Tennessee has seen over the past month. Indy has allowed a full 6.0 yards per play this season; tied for 31st in the NFL. Find a -7 (be smart, lay a little extra juice to get the key number, there are plenty of -7’s at -115 or -120 out there as I type this), and expect the Titans exorcize their Colts demons. Take the Titans. |
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10-15-17 | Rams +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Rams (#265) Jacksonville is 3-2 right now and feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout win in Pittsburgh last week. Of course, that win was as easy as it gets for the Jags, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing his career high in interceptions – Blake Bortles attempted a grand total of one pass after halftime of that contest. The previous week, the Jags were outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets two weeks ago, even if you take the Jets two long 70+ yard TD runs out of the mix. This Jags team is capable of winning some games by relying on their playmaking defense coupled with Leonard Fournette’s ability to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. But if Bortles is asked to do anything other than ‘game manage’, he’s a complete disaster, getting worse, not better. It’s not like the Jaguars have enjoyed any sort of reasonable home field advantage in Jacksonville. They lost their only previous home game by three touchdowns to Tennessee. Last year, they lost six times in seven tries here in Jacksonville. My numbers show them with an 9-28 SU mark on this field dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign, a consistent track record of failure. And it’s surely worth noting that in games where the favorite was -2 or higher, the underdog has gone 4-0 ATS in Jaguars games this year; not a team to lay points with! There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game, bad news for a QB like Bortles who makes mistakes under duress. That defense played their best game of the season last week against Seattle; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. The Rams turned the ball over five times last week, their first ‘turnover plagued’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 164 pass attempts for the season, while only taking six sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football. The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Jaguars offense; a full yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco. We’ve seen them win SU on the road at Dallas. While LA is flying East, this is not an early start game. And the Jags homefield edge is as small as any in the NFL. The Rams full season defensive numbers are lying and their offense is the vastly superior unit. Big Ticket: Take the Rams. |
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10-15-17 | Bears +6.5 v. Ravens | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#261) The numbers don’t lie. In their last 14 tries as favorites of more than a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens are 3-11 ATS. All three of the covers came against the same team – the Cleveland Browns, the absolute worst team in football in recent seasons. Continuing a long term trend under John Harbaugh, the underdog in Ravens games has been profitable to bet blindly once again this year. Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. That’s the real Ravens; not a team with any business in this pointspread range right now. I know they blew out Oakland last week, in large part due to the Raiders own incompetence. Make no mistake about it -- that victory did not make me think that the Ravens have suddenly solved their myriad of problems; a team that has been outgained by 0.6 yards per play this season. The Bears aren’t a pretty team to watch and they’re certainly not a ‘sexy’ squad with a 1-4 record and a short week to prepare off a Monday Night loss. But the effort has been there for Chicago every week, especially on the defensive side of the football. They’re getting key LB Danny Treviathan back in the lineup after his league mandated suspension. And the Bears season long offensive stats are flat out lying now that Mike Glennon has mercifully been benched for a playmaking Mitch Trubisky. Too many points! Take the Bears. |
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10-14-17 | New Mexico +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take New Mexico (#215) The betting markets have no idea how to price Fresno State right now, offering savvy bettors a prime opportunity to cash in on Saturday Night! Fresno presents quite the conundrum for ‘power rating’ based bettors – the wiseguys. The Fresno program fell hard and fast once Derek Carr graduated and moved on to the Oakland Raiders. 11-2 in 2013 with Carr, the Bulldogs went 6-8 in 2014, 3-9 in 2015 and 1-11 last year. The talent level and depth were way down – waaaaaaay down – from where it had been just a few years earlier. Enter Jeff Tedford. The former Cal head coach has a ‘QB guru’ reputation, and the state of the program right now is significantly better than it was last year at this time. And, after ugly ‘step-up’ losses to Alabama and Washington, the Bulldogs responded with back-2-back double digit wins, beating Nevada and San Jose State by double digit margins. But before we get too carried away with the Bulldogs improvement, let’s not forget how far this program had fallen – all the way to the bottom of a ‘not that good’ Mountain West Conference. Nor should we forget who Fresno has beaten this season – the two worst teams in the Mountain West and FCS Incarnate Word. Clearly, the markets are struggling to price this squad correctly, as evidenced by the fact that Fresno is chalk on Saturday Night against a team they should be underdogs against! Fresno’s offense is ‘serviceable’, not explosive. QB Marcus McMaryion doesn’t have a big arm, and his top two receivers – KeeSean Johnson and Da’Mari Scott – average only about 11 yards per reception between them. The team has a grand total of one rushing attempt for longer than 19 yards all season. Fresno is certainly capable of beating the Mountain West bottom feeders this year, but New Mexico is a legitimate step-up for this squad, and the Lobos unique style is primed to give Fresno trouble. When Bob Davie arrived in Albuquerque, he installed a fairly unique option style offense. Now, six years into the system, the Lobos are running it extremely well. In their last game, facing an Air Force team that sees the option every day in practice, the Lobos rolled for 56 points while averaging better than 10 yards per SNAP. Why? Because Davie runs an option with speed on the perimeter—one missed assignment or one bad tackle and someone is off to the races. Lobos QB Lamar Jordan is a playmaker, averaging more than ten yards per pass attempt. SEVEN different backs have a carry of 25 yards or longer. WR’s Chris Davis and Jay Griffin along with TE Delane Hart-Johnson all have big play ability as well. This is a ‘quick strike TD’ team, the type of squad that can suck the life out of an opposing stadium in a hurry with a big play or two. And they’ve certainly shown the ability to win games away from home. New Mexico’s seniors have won in SU fashion on the highway at New Mexico State, UTSA, UNLV, Wyoming, Boise, Hawaii, Utah State and Tulsa. Fresno is not primed to slow down New Mexico’s option. These teams haven’t met since 2014. Tedford didn’t see options at Cal, or in more recent stints with the Tampa Bay Bucs and in the CFL. Defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer came over from the CFL, another guy who is not familiar with or adept at shutting down the option. Tedford cleaned house when he got here – there’s not a single coach on the staff who was here last year, leaving the Bulldogs defense unlikely to get many stops in this one. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take New Mexico. |
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10-14-17 | Oklahoma v. Texas +9 | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#182) There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! Here in Austin, with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel in their lone try as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. And when you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last dozen tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-1. That’s Straight Up! They’re 12-0 ATS, the lone SU loss coming in that aforementioned game earlier this year on the road at USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time! Oklahoma, on the other hand, is NOT worth betting on every single time they’re chalk. Head coach Lincoln Riley lucked into this job after Bob Stoops surprisingly resigned over the summer. And, quite frankly, Riley has struggled – he’s no Tom Herman when it comes to motivating players or ‘X’s and O’s’. This defense just got shredded by the likes of Baylor and Iowa State (with a third string QB), allowing 79 combined points while forcing only one turnover. This is not a good sign moving forward for a ‘D’ that frankly wasn’t very good last year. Oklahoma’s offense is explosive, but the Iowa State coaching staff just gave every other coaching staff in the Big 12 a blueprint on how to beat them. The Cyclones rushed only three while dropping eight back into coverage, frustrating Baker Mayfield repeatedly. Don’t be shocked if the Longhorns take a page from that playbook this week in a game that has all the makings of a tight, competitive contest. Take Texas. |
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10-14-17 | Virginia -3.5 v. North Carolina | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Virginia (#133) North Carolina is as strong a ‘bet-against’ team as you can find in college football this year. It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tar Heels anyway after they sent their QB Mitch Trubisky to the NFL after his junior season, along with the likes of Elijah Hood and Ryan Switzer – impact offensive playmakers. A home loss to Cal in Week 1 showed that very clearly. And that was BEFORE the injury bug really started to strike. 9 guys who have started a game for the Tar Heels this year are now out for the season, and that doesn’t include a whole host of shorter term injuries and another whole host of guys who got hurt in camp, before the season even started. With a redshirt frosh QB throwing to a receiving corps that has lost their top four guys to injury, playing behind an ineffective offensive line and without any semblance of a running game to help them, the Tar Heels offense is stuck in the mud; producing only 34 points in their last three ballgames. North Carolina’s defense is every bit as injury riddled, if not more. And unlike the offense, that defense was short on talent to begin with! The Tar Heels lost their one true leader on defense; the guy who called the plays in the huddle in Andre Smith. He’s out for the year. Senior strong safety Donnie Miles, the team’s career leader in starts, is hurt as well, as is senior DL Tyler Powell, sophomore safety DJ Ford and several others. The only team that North Carolina has been able to stop all year was Old Dominion… While the Tar Heels are collapsing, the Cavaliers are in a great spot in Bronco Mendenhall’s second season on the job. They’re coming off impressive back-2-back wins, beating Boise on the blue turf in Boise, then knocking off the same Duke team that beat North Carolina by double digits. Senior QB Kurt Benkert has been brilliant since a bad game against Indiana back in Week 2, throwing for 900 yards and 9 TD’s in his last three ballgames. And the vastly improved Cavs defense has held four of their five foes this year to 23 points or less, more than capable of getting a late stop should we need one to preserve the victory. Two teams headed in opposite directions here! Take Virginia. |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#104) There’s a lot to like about the Carolina Panthers right now. A team that went 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) and went to the Super Bowl two years ago is showing signs that they are capable of putting another strong run together here in 2017. It starts with a stop unit in excellent in early season form, holding foes to 4.8 yards per play, the #4 defense in the NFL right now. The Panthers offense came out of the gate looking very sluggish. Cam Newton missed the entire offseason, recovering from surgery, and he looked rusty and out of sync for the first three weeks of the campaign. Those early season stats are significantly impacting this pointspread, even though they are effectively meaningless now. Cam Newton found his stride against New England two weeks ago, finishing with the seventh highest single game QB rating of his career. He did it again last week in Detroit, finishing with his fourth best QB rating of his career. When a former MVP level QB goes 48-62 for 771 yards and 6 TD’s in two games; we can reasonably assume that he’s a ‘bet-on’ guy moving forward. Panthers LB Thomas Davis: “We had a lot of people who were counting him out at the beginning of the season – really because we kind of limited some of the things he was capable of doing. But now you see him going out and running the ball again. His arm strength is back. And he’s putting the ball on the money.” Yes, the Eagles have won three straight since their loss to KC, but those three wins have come against the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals; three teams that all have significant offensive issues. It’s surely worth noting that those squads are a combined 2-11 SU, 2-10-1 ATS in all games not against one another; both wins coming against fellow bottom feeders Indy and San Fran. And make no mistake about it – Philadelphia’s defense is not built to handle high octane passing attacks without their top cover corner Ronald Darby, who is out indefinitely. To make matters worse, their top interior defensive lineman, Fletcher Cox, is very questionable with a strained calf. The team went 1-9 SU without left tackle Lane Johnson in the lineup last year while going 6-0 with him healthy. Johnson will be out this week, dealing with a concussion. The Eagles defense has been ‘cramming’ for their test on Thursday, a short week with travel for a squad dealing with the injury bug. Safety Malcolm Jenkins: “Last year we played the Giants on Thursday night. That's a divisional opponent. You've got years of notes on them. But this is an opponent that is doing so much offensively that you're not necessarily familiar with what you've got to prepare for and cram for. It makes it tough. We definitely have our hands full over the next couple days.” Defensive end Chris Long: “With a tough team like Carolina and the multitude of looks they give you in the run game and the different ways they can beat you, it's a challenge." I don’t expect Philly to be up for that challenge….. Take the Panthers. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -100 | 105 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#474) The Houston Texans looked awful offensively in Week 1 with Tom Savage starting at quarterback. They looked every bit as bad in Week 2, travelling to Cincinnati with rookie QB Deshaun Watson promoted to make his first career start on the road on a short week (Thursday Night Game). The stats from those two games make up half the statistical database for the Texans this season, yet they are completely meaningless when we look forward, not backwards. In two games with normal prep time for their rookie QB, the Houston Texans have covered the spread by 10.5 points at New England and by 38.5 points against Tennessee last week. Both the Patriots and Titans are power rated as playoff teams, not weaklings. In my humble opinion, the betting markets are not valuing Houston correctly at this stage of the campaign; a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word! My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting the Texans last week, as easy as it gets. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up for that game, with numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities: “What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. “I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 7.8 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, made an immediate impact in his first game of the season on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins last week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now.” But the markets continue to show love for Kansas City, currently power rated as the #1 team in the NFL just about everywhere. I understand the Chiefs have looked really good thusfar. But I also understand that the Chiefs aren’t going 16-0 this year; they’re coming off a huge last minute win (and an extremely fortuitous pointspread cover) on Monday Night against the Redskins; and they’re travelling on a short week to face a defense that completely shut them down last year, holding KC to four field goals. Wrong team favored here; and Houston offers legit Big Ticket value on a weekly basis right now...at least until this national TV game. Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -1.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#472) If you didn’t watch the game last Thursday Night and simply looked at the final score, you might think that Green Bay’s early season issues have been fixed. But if you watched the game, you saw what I saw – the Bears completely melting down, handing the Packers cheap TD after cheap TD. When the carnage ended, Chicago had more first downs than Green Bay, more rushing yards AND more passing yards – with Mike Glennon at QB vs. Aaron Rodgers, yet the Packers had an easy 3 TD victory. Of course, the Bears -4 turnover margin was the key factor in the game…. And bettors just saw the Dallas Cowboys get whipped on their home field by the LA Rams. The Rams are getting plenty of respect here in Vegas, but that level of respect hasn’t seeped out into the broader betting community just yet. So, for many people, it looks like the Cowboys second bad loss in three weeks after they got hammered in Denver. All of this has resulted in a short pointspread here, with Cowboys backers asked to lay less than a field goal, at home, in a ‘playoff revenge’ situation. There’s ample reason to expect a Cowboys victory, by margin. Let me start with the anti-Packers piece of the equation. Green Bay has a cluster injury problem on their offensive line. They beat the Bears last week using four guards and a center, including Lucas Patrick, an undrafted rookie out of Duke. This is a problem against the fierce Cowboys pass rush, with DeMarcus Lawrence leading the NFL in sacks. Green Bay doesn’t have a single rush of longer than 13 yards in their first four games, and starting RB Ty Montgomery – the speedster – isn’t expected to suit up this week. The Packers have undergone a youth infusion in their secondary and, quite frankly, their linebacking corps isn’t very good. These are BIG problems going against a hungry, motivated Cowboys squad coming off a loss. Dez Bryant burned the Packers for 132 receiving yards and two TD’s in the playoff loss last January and he’s coming off his first really good game of the new campaign. Zeke Elliott primed for success here against a Packers stop unit not built to stop balanced attacks and power running games. Dak Prescott showed great leadership following the Cowboys first loss, rallying them from behind at Arizona the following week; a ‘bet-on’ QB in this spot. And Green Bay is an overvalued commodity right now, worth fading in this price range without hesitation. Take the Cowboys. |
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10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -8 | 30-9 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#458). NOTE: ERROR Correction! This play was originally entered wrong. The correct play is on the STEELERS! Here’s the premise. Pittsburgh came into the season power rated as one of the top Super Bowl contenders; right there with the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, Cowboys and Seahawks. That power rating was probably a bit lofty for the first few weeks – the Steelers offensive starters spent virtually no time on the field together in preseason, with multiple key veterans nursing injuries. That lack of on-field time together hurt Pittsburgh badly in Week 1; a sluggish showing at Cleveland. They faced the Vikings elite defense next, but still won by 17 on this field – their only previous home game in 2017. Then Pittsburgh went to play at Chicago against the Bears stodgy defense and struggled. Last week, against the Ravens quality defense, the offense finally showed signs of breaking out of their funk. Le’Veon Bell got untracked, rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Big Ben spread the ball around – five different receivers caught at least three passes. And Pittsburgh won comfortably, despite not putting up gaudy offensive numbers. As a bettor, my goal is to be proactive, not reactive. There’s nothing systemically wrong with the Steelers offense, despite their disappointing production. Let’s not forget how little time they spent together in training camp. Nor should we forget that Pittsburgh has faced good defenses three weeks in a row. And perhaps most importantly, this is a home field that really matters for the Steelers offense! Dating to the start of the 2014 campaign (no need to go back further, these numbers have been consistent for many years), Ben Roethlisberger has an 85.3 QB rating on the highway, but a 109.5 QB rating at home. He’s averaged more than a yard per pass better at home, and the TD-INT ratios are staggering: 62-20 here at Heinz Field vs. 24-23 on the highway. The Steelers have scored 24+ in 13 of their last 14 on this field. The markets have devalued them at least somewhat because of their sluggish start. After a series of mediocre offensive showings, this team is primed to go for the kill this week! Jacksonville was outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets last week, even if you take the Jets two long TD runs out of the mix. And make no mistake about it – Blake Bortles is getting worse, not better. With the game on the line against the Jets last week, Bortles misfired on pass after pass. He’s lost confidence in himself and his teammates have followed suit. When the Jags can run the football and rely on their defense, they’re certainly capable of playing competitively. But the Steelers defense has been downright nasty all year, a vastly underrated unit that has held foes to just 4.2 yards per play; best in the NFL. And asking Bortles to be decent in a ‘likely to be playing from behind on the road against a tricky, blitzing defense’ situation is not something I’m willing to do. Put it all together and this is a rock solid ‘buy low’ opportunity here for an elite team primed for a breakout game on their home field. Take the Steelers. |
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10-07-17 | Wisconsin -10.5 v. Nebraska | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Wisconsin (#403) The Badgers have dominated every foe they’ve faced this year. They beat Utah State 59-10, a win that looks even better now than it did at the time. Wisconsin knocked off Florida Atlantic 31-14, and followed that up with a 40-6 win on the road at BYU. Last week, the Badgers dominated Northwestern for three quarters but fell asleep with a 3 TD lead in the fourth quarter, allowing the Wildcats to make a late spread covering run. Lesson learned for Paul Chryst’s squad – I’m not expecting the Badgers to fall asleep with a big lead again this week. That being said, I DO expect the Badgers to build another big lead. Seven of their last eight regular season wins have come by 2 TD’s or more, and the Badgers are 6-1 ATS as road chalk in the Paul Chryst era. And make no mistake about it – the 2017 Badgers are loaded with veteran talent. Prior to the fourth quarter last week, this defense had held all four opponents to 14 points or less. Returning QB starter Alex Hornibrook has completed 67% of his throws while averaging just shy of ten yards per pass ATTEMPT! RB Jonathan Taylor is the latest Wisconsin back with NFL upside, averaging 7.2 yards per carry with seven TD’s. After facing the Big 10’s two weakest offenses (Rutgers and Illinois) in the last two weeks, the Cornhuskers defense is primed to fare quite so well as they step up in class. Let’s not forget how bad this defense looked against the likes of Oregon and Arkansas State – two decent offenses -- earlier in the season. No surprise here if Wisconsin puts 5 TD’s or more on the scoreboard Saturday Night. Nebraska’s offense is NOT primed to trade points with anyone this year, not with Tulane transfer Tanner Lee at quarterback. Lee has completed under 55% of his throws, averaging just 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Even worse, he leads all of college football with nine interceptions already. The Huskers aren’t recruiting top line skill position talent in the Mike Riley era, not an offense loaded with playmakers. So when the Badgers take a lead here, the Huskers will be hard pressed to play from behind, the far more likely of these two squads to make a handful of ugly, game changing mistakes. There’s a class difference between these two programs these days, a difference that’s not fully reflected in this pointspread. Take Wisconsin. |
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10-07-17 | SMU +7 v. Houston | 22-35 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
Take SMU (#399) When Chad Morris got the SMU job, I expected success, much like June Jones had success here (for a while) before Morris arrived. Dabo Swinney is getting all the love, but Morris was every bit the architect of that Clemson ascendency over the past half-decade as Swinney was; the guy who designed the offense, called the plays and recruited the likes of Tajh Boyd and Deshaun Watson. He’s a VERY bright offensive football coach. SMU was a disaster when he arrived – June Jones did not leave the cupboard full. The Mustangs went just 2-10 in his first year on the job. Last year, SMU showed signs; improving by three wins while covering the pointspread at a 67% clip for the season. This year, SMU has clearly taken the next step in their progression as evidenced by their perfect 5-0 ATS mark, including a surprisingly competitive game on the road at TCU. It’s surely worth noting how they hung 36 points on that Horned Frogs defense – big plays galore, as five different receivers caught a pass of 20+ yards. SMU is more than capable of doing the same thing here against a Cougars squad that hasn’t regained their mojo following the departures of all-everything QB Greg Ward and head coach Tom Herman. Mustangs QB Ben Hicks has a 14-3 TD-INT ratio. Their top three backs combine for well over 5.5 yards per carry. And with Trey Quinn, James Proche and Courtland Sutton catching passes downfield; we can expect a handful of big play TD’s from the Mustangs in this one. Let’s not forget how SMU hung 38 on this team in an outright upset victory last year -- one big play after the next. Houston’s offense has no such explosiveness. The Cougs have been held to 24 points or less against every opponent not named ‘Rice’ this season; unable to sustain long TD drives or generate many big play, quick strike TD’s. First year, first time head coach Major Applewhite hired the youngest offensive coordinator in college football, and that lack of experience is showing. The Cougs have done the QB shuffle, benching Kyle Allen for Kyle Postma. The running game has been sluggish; the passing game has lacked a downfield element, with their top two WR’s averaging just 12.1 and 9.4 yards per reception. It’s surely worth noting that Houston’s best defensive player -- disruptive tackle Ed Oliver -- is dealing with a knee injury, very questionable for Saturday. And it’s also worth noting that SMU covered the spread by 44 points when these teams met last year. I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they win this game in outright fashion again! Take SMU. |
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10-01-17 | 49ers +7 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#273) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: ‘Arizona has no business laying a TD to anybody right now’. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up recommending a bet against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football against Dallas, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “I can understand the wiseguy rationale supporting Arizona here, but I don’t agree with it one iota. Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 104.6 in 2015. Last year, it declined to 87.2. Through three games here in 2017, Palmer has a QB rating of 76.1, despite facing the Lions and Colts, who finished ranked #32 and #28 against the pass last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics, and a Cowboys team minus three starters in the secondary. “Palmer’s struggles are likely to continue; an aging QB at the tail end of his career. Star RB David Johnson is out, and the team averaged only 3.3 yards per carry without him against Indy and only 2.3 yards per rush against Dallas; getting very little from the running game. The Cards offensive line is banged up, with DJ Humprhies and Alex Boone out while Mike Iupati is questionable to suit up. Their receiving corps is a mess, with John Brown likely to miss, Jermaine Gresham and JJ Nelson very questionable and Jaron Brown not 100% either, dealing with a knee injury.” The 49ers won two games last year. Yet a better Arizona team than this one never sniffed a pointspread cover as home favorites against San Fran, winning 23-20. That’s fairly typical for Arizona, now sitting at 6-12 ATS at home since the start of the 2015 campaign; in large part due to a defense that is struggling to get stops. This team can’t be laying TD’s right now, plain and simple. The 49ers offense showed real signs of life last week against the Rams; the first time this season they’ve shown any comfort level with Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes. Their defense fared well twice in three games, the lone exception coming on a very short week. This time around, the Niners have the long week with extra prep time (having played Thursday Night), while the Cardinals are off a short week, having played on Monday Night. That prep edge matters in spread ranges like this one! Take the 49ers. |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons -7.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#268) This game has all the makings of a mismatch for one reason and one reason only. The Falcons offense is elite. The Bills offense is bottom tier. It’s hard for this bettor to picture the Bills defense shutting Atlanta down, and it’s just as hard for me to picture the Bills offense trading points with the Falcons for four full quarters. The results don’t lie. At home, the Falcons have scored 34, 44, 36, 38, 41, 28, 39, 33, 30 and 48 points in their last ten games at Mercedes Benz Stadium, playoffs included. They hung 30 on the road last week in Detroit, despite a three interception showing from Matt Ryan (two of the INT’s bounced off his receivers hands, including one in the red zone that took a scoring opportunity away). It’s surely worth noting that the Falcons SU win with a -3 turnover margin was only the 4th time a team has accomplished that since 2011, with -3 turnover teams now 4-124 SU during that span. Coming off a turnover filled effort like that, returning home to a field where their offensive comfort level is second to none, we can expect another 30+ point performance from Matt Ryan and company here – it’s what they do. So can the Bills hope to trade points with Atlanta? I seriously doubt it! Buffalo hung 26 points against Denver last week, but there was no explosiveness in this offense – they averaged only 4.3 yards per play. Through three games, they’re averaging only 4.6 yards per play, and they were held to a single field goal in their lone road game this season. Tyrod Taylor has shown precious little chemistry with his rebuilt receiving corps – he’s only completed 17 passes to his WR’s in three games! Shady McCoy isn’t even averaging three yards per carry. Bottom line: one team can be expected to score TD’s, the other one cannot. And with Buffalo a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ off their upset win against the Broncos while Atlanta was not amused by their turnover filled near upset at Detroit, the spot reeks of a blowout for the home favorite on Sunday. Take the Falcons. |
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10-01-17 | Titans v. Texans +1.5 | Top | 14-57 | Win | 100 | 92 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#260) What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 8.3 yards per carry on 15 rushing attempts through 2 ½ games. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, is back at practice and could suit up on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins this week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England last Sunday is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now. Tennessee has one defensive weakness, but it’s a doozy. The Titans are not defending downfield throws very well at all. We saw this defense get picked apart by David Carr and the Raiders in their opener. We saw them get picked apart again last week, as Russell Wilson – with a bottom tier offensive line protecting him and a receiving corps that hadn’t done diddly squat in the first two games – looked like a pro bowler, throwing for 373 yards and four TD’s without an interception while taking only one sack. It’s surely worth noting that this defense has created only three turnovers in three games. No surprise here if the Texans offense lights up the scoreboard again this week. Marcus Mariota has only faced Romeo Crennel’s defense once before and it wasn’t pretty. Crennel’s schemes gave Mariota fits, as he finished just 13-29 without a TD; one of his five worst games as a pro based on QBR ratings. The Titans offense is a notch or two overrated this week after piling it on against a gassed Seahawks defense in the heat last week, putting up stats that were ‘weather and situational’ related more than any other factor. And it’s surely worth noting the Titans propensity for settling for field goals, with only a 40% TD conversion rate in the red zone. That’s not what I’m looking for out of my road favorites. Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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09-30-17 | Ole Miss +28 v. Alabama | 3-66 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Mississippi (#197) I understand that Alabama looked like the greatest team in college football history last week in their dominating 59-0 victory at Vanderbilt. I understand that if things go wrong for Ole Miss here, the Tide could have this spread covered by halftime. But this pointspread is waaaaaaay out of whack with recent series history. It’s out of whack with the Rebels overall talent level. It’s out of whack with Mississippi’s results in recent seasons, a squad with only one loss by more than four touchdowns since 2014 – last year’s season finale when Mississippi State ran it up on the Rebels at the tail end of a disastrous season. This pointspread is the definition of ‘value’ and I have little hesitation recommending a wager on Ole Miss at this number. Last year’s game was 48-43. The year before, it was 43-37. The year before that, it was 23-17. Before that, 25-0. Before that, 33-14. On the field, we haven’t seen a four TD separation at any point. While Ole Miss isn’t in great shape with Matt Luke taking over the program following the Hugh Freeze scandal, the Rebels are in a solid situational spot coming off a bye week. They’re also transitioning roles, after being favored in each of their first three games. Their loss at Cal was in a tough spot, late at night, and the Bears have certainly shown well for themselves. Yet the markets viewed that loss as a ‘crash’ for Ole Miss, which, along with Alabama’s blowout last week, is why this line is as high as it is. Which is too high! Shea Patterson was the #2 QB recruit in the country coming out of high school, and the skill position talent surrounding him is eye popping. This team can spread the field and chuck the football around – exactly the type of offense that Alabama has struggled to defend in recent seasons. We saw the likes of Colorado State come into Tuscaloosa and hang 23 points on the Tide, gaining close to 400 yards of offense in the process. ‘Bama is already 0-2 ATS in this spread range at home; an emerging streak worth riding here. Take Ole Miss. |
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09-30-17 | Baylor v. Kansas State -16.5 | 20-33 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Kansas State (#140) Here’s what Bill Snyder has done off a bye week over the last five years. Last year, the Wildcats beat Florida Atlantic 63-7 as 24 point chalk, and beat Baylor 42-21 as 2.5 point underdogs. In 2015, Kansas State covered as a dog at Oklahoma State and at Baylor off a bye. In 2014, another 2-0 ATS mark, including an outright upset over Oklahoma. 2013? You guessed it, 2-0 ATS, including a 35-12 win over West Virginia as 13 point favorites. Plain and simple: that’s 10-0 ATS in ten tries off a regular season bye over the last five years. Yep, Bill Snyder is ‘bet-on’ all the way in this role, especially with the Wildcats going into the bye off a bad loss at Vandy. Snyder tends to be a good bully, and Baylor is a team that is apt for bullying! Baylor was a program that was flirting with Top 5 status in the Art Briles era; huge moneymakers for their supporters in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 as the program was ascending. Then the Briles era ended under a string of ugly allegations, a bunch of guys transferred out of town and the Bears started losing. They closed out 2016 on an 0-6 skid, and they’ve opened up 2017 by going 0-4 SU and ATS, including SU losses to Liberty and Texas San Antonio. First year head coach Matt Rhule is trying to implement a culture change, so when he talks about getting out physical-ed in the trenches by the likes of the UTSA Roadrunners, it stands out to this bettor! And when a program goes from Top 5 to bottom feeder in a very short span, the markets struggle to keep up with the decline. Last week, Baylor made a bunch of big plays and looked competitive against mighty Oklahoma. For the second straight week, the Bears caught two TD passes of 70+ yards, making a struggling offense look better than it really is. Bill Snyder is not going to get caught with his pants down defensively and give up a bunch of deep balls, and that’s Baylor’s primary way of scoring right now! QB Zack Smith was awful in his first road start, completing only 12 of 34 passes at Duke. And Baylor just lost their best receiver after Chris Pratt suffered a season ending knee injury; an impact injury – he had five TD catches and a 25.1 ypc average through their first four games. Expect it to get ugly for the still overvalued road dog here. Take Kansas State. |
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09-30-17 | Rice v. Pittsburgh -20 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 67 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#116) Know this: Rice stinks. Any decent Power 5 Conference school that comes in with something to prove against the Owls is likely to have their way with them. David Bailiff has fought the good fight, but in his 11th year on the job, coming off a 3-9 season with another one right here on the horizon, the Owls are fodder for a team like Pitt on Saturday – slower, smaller and more concerned about their home game against Army next week then they are about this trip to Pittsburgh. The only game this year in which the Owls have scored more than seven points came against UTEP; a squad that just might be the single worst team out of 130 FBS squads. Bailiff doesn’t sound like he’s reeking with confidence following Rice’s latest loss, at home against Florida International: “We had execution errors up front. We had execution errors with the running backs; and receivers who were supposed to run a route 10 but instead ran it 12 yards. Last week everybody took turns making a mistake. This play it might be the center, the next it was the tackle, the next play it was a route. It can’t be jazz; everybody has to be in symphony.” Pitt has suffered three straight losses, but there’s no shame in any of them. Penn State and Oklahoma State are both legit Top 10 squads and Georgia Tech is a win or two away from being in the Top 25 themselves. But the Panthers aren’t focused on how good their opponents were. They’re focused on bringing their ‘A’ game here, in a major ‘step down in class’ game. Here’s a great quote Junior Offensive Tackle Brian O’Neill: “I haven't seen the GPS numbers of the monitors (that measure players' activity levels), but we were going in practice. There's definitely a fire lit in all of us. It's unfortunate it took a couple games to figure that out, but I think we're heading in the right direction, had a fresh start, clean slate (Tuesday) and really got after it.” More O’Neill, after watching tape of Pitt from last year: “We had a little bit more of an attitude then, a nasty streak. We were a little hungrier. Just something that jumps out on tape. Obviously, X's and O's are a little different, but you want to play with a little edge. Not that we lost it, but we focused on it a little more. Who cares if we had success before? You have to take it right now.” Watch for the Panthers to take some shots downfield this week, whether it’s Max Browne or Ben DiNucci at QB, and watch for them to bully Rice at the line of scrimmage. Expect a blowout. Take Pitt |
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09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State +6.5 | 17-7 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Iowa State (#104) Texas isn’t ready to lay a number like this on the highway, and Iowa State is coming to play. The Longhorns are dealing with injury issues along their offensive front, with a trio of linemen and a pair of tight ends not expected to play here. Head coach Tom Herman, talking about the impact of the injured upperclassmen: “We’ve got to figure out ways to do things that they’re able to do and not ask them to do too much because they’re not Connor Williams and they’re not Andrew Beck, not right now.” As a result of the injury barrage, the Longhorns are expected to start six freshmen or sophomores – not a ‘let’s lay a TD with ‘em on the road at night in Ames’ type of squad. And oh, by the way, Herman hasn’t even settled on a QB yet, with Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger both in the mix. Iowa State was a ‘hard luck’ team in Matt Campbell’s first season on the job, losing four games by a TD or less. They showed us this year that they might be a hard luck team again, blowing a late lead to Iowa and losing by a FG in OT. A hard luck loss should be fine in this pointspread range –but the quotes coming out of Ames after three straight games where the offense scored 40+ indicate that the Cyclones seem to think they can win. QB Jacob Park: “We’ve got some good leaders on the line, and one of the best (offensive) line coaches in the country. I really proud of those guys — and I’m happy to have them in front of me.” Coach Campbell, talking about showcasing his program on ESPN: “The country gets to see what we all know. The country gets an inward look at what Iowa State is about.” Iowa State got healthier on the bye week. Star safety Kamari Cotton-Moya should be back from an elbow injury. Starting cornerback D’Andre Payne has returned to practice following a hamstring injury. And and defensive tackle Jamahl Johnson could suit up as well. Campbell on Johnson: “He’s a guy we’re really counting on and was playing at a really high rate for us.” And it’s surely worth noting that the Longhorns don’t have a road win by more than a single score on their resume since 2014. You might want to take a taste of the moneyline here….. Take Iowa State. |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#489) Wiseguys enjoyed a HUGE weekend in the NFL, while recreational bettors got burned repeatedly, with one ‘public’ side after the next going down in flames on Sunday. Expect that to change on Monday Night, with the sharp $$ pushing the line down to Dallas -2.5 at many books as I write this. The wiseguys are betting Arizona for two reasons tonight. First, they like the spot for the Cardinals. Arizona is returning home for the first time after playing on the road in Weeks 3 & 4 of the preseason, then again in the first two weeks of the regular season. Secondly, the sharps are clearly concerned with the injuries to the Cowboys secondary with both Nolan Carroll and Chidobe Awuzie ruled out this evening. I can understand the wiseguy rationale here, but I don’t agree with it one iota. Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 104.6 in 2015. Last year, it declined to 87.2. Through two games here in 2017, Palmer has a QB rating of 65.5, despite facing the Lions and Colts, who finished ranked #32 and #28 against the pass last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics. Palmer’s struggles are likely to continue this evening, an aging QB at the tail end of his career. Star RB David Johnson is out, and the team averaged only 3.3 yards per carry without him in Indy last week, getting very little from the running game. The Cards offensive line is banged up, with DJ Humprhies expected to miss and Mike Iupati questionable to suit up. Their receiving corps is a mess, with John Brown expected to miss, Jermaine Gresham and JJ Nelson very questionable and Jaron Brown not 100% either, dealing with a knee injury. For what it’s worth, it sure looks as if Larry Fitzgerald has finally lost a step. Even with the Cowboys dinged up secondary, Arizona’s offense is not primed to march up and down the field. The Cowboys were road darlings last year, opening up the season with a 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS mark on the highway, including SU wins in Pittsburgh and Green Bay. This team can handle the intensity of playing in Arizona on a Monday Night. They’re coming off the first true blowout loss of the Dak Prescott/Zeke Elliott era, and based on everything I’ve read, this is a hungry, angry team with something to prove to a national TV audience tonight. Prescott: “I think we just didn’t play our game and we didn’t execute the way that we should or we normally do….I know I’ll get better from it, I know this team will get better from it and it’ll be a learning experience.” Expect the Cowboys to show that they’ve learned their lesson with a road win tonight. Take the Cowboys. |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +9 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#485) The Packers offense didn’t really work in Week 1 against Seattle. They were shut out in the first half, and one of their two second half TD’s came on a six yard ‘drive’ following a fumble. The Packers offense didn’t really work in Week 2 against Atlanta either. In a ‘shootout’ type of game, the Packers were still sitting on 10 in the fourth quarter, and by then it was garbage time of a blowout loss. Aaron Rodgers has a QBR of just 54.7 through two games, worst of his career if extrapolated to the full season. RB Ty Montgomery, despite his blazing speed, is averaging 3.1 yards per carry with a long rush of eight yards on his 29 attempts. Top WR Jordy Nelson is banged up already, dealing with a quad injury. WR Randall Cobb is banged up too, with a bum shoulder. But perhaps most important injuries of all are on the offensive line, where Jahri Evans and Jason Spriggs are the latest to go down, on the heels of injuries to both starting tackles – Brian Bulaga and David Bahktiari. Yes, that’s three starters and the top backup tackle all dealing with injuries for Green Bay this week. On Monday morning, the headlines will talk about Aaron Rodgers, but the reality is that his OL and his receiving corps is a litany of walking wounded. This is NOT a team primed to win games by big margins right now. Say what you want about the Bengals offense (I’ll say plenty in a moment), but the Bengals defense continues to be an elite unit. Cinci has a red zone touchdown percentage of zero and their offense has turned the ball over an NFL high six times; yet the D has hung tough despite some very adverse circumstances. This is not a defense primed to allow TD’s in bunches against an opponent with significant offensive line issues. And Cinci’s offense has wildly underachieved early. A ‘near player mutiny’ sent former coordinator Ken Zampese to the ranks of the unemployed, replaced by veteran coach Bill Lazor. They’ve had extra time to get ready for Green Bay and install Lazor’s tweaks, off since last Friday. It’s not like the Bengals don’t have offensive talent, and even in the midst of their 2016 debacle, Cinci didn’t suffer any of their last five losses by more than a touchdown. Expect Cinci to hang tough for the full sixty minutes. Take the Bengals. |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 117 h 21 m | Show | |
Take the New York Giants (#479) Let me start with an excerpt from my Monday Night Football write-up supporting the Detroit Lions over the Giants. “These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either.” Yet I’m taking the points with the Giants in this one, after fading them on Monday Night, another game where their offense didn’t work. What gives? First, this pointspread was sitting at +3.5 prior to Monday Night. Now it’s +6. That’s a pretty big reaction, in my opinion, despite the fact that the Giants are poised to get better, not worse. Obviously, with their receiving corps all banged up during preseason, unable to get on the field together with Eli Manning, the passing game was rusty on Monday Night. OBJ was a non-factor in that game, Brandon Marshall dropped a potential TD pass late and Sterling Shepard didn’t create much separation. Savvy bettors know not to expect what they just saw to happen the exact same way again the following week. Unlike the vast majority of the struggling offenses on the list above, there’s legitimate hope for the Giants. I expect this offense to be improved in the short term. The Eagles are at their weakest defensively in the secondary, a stop unit that is clearly vulnerable to big plays. Three different Redskins receivers caught passes of 28 yards or longer in their opener. There was more of the same last week, allowing a pair of 35+ yard passes and a 50+ yard TD run. Eagles starting cornerback Ronald Darby will be out for at least a month and safeties Jaylen Watkins and Rodney McLeod are dealing with hamstring injuries. Yes, Philly has a solid pass rush, but this is not an elite defense right now, plain and simple. Both games between these two teams last year were decided by exactly five points, the same margin of victory for their season finale in 2015. I went back over the series history from the last decade, and Philly hasn’t been favored by this many points even once! The Giants entered the season with a higher win total and a higher power rating number here in Vegas. Bottom line: expect a competitive game, start to finish, and a better showing from the Giants offense. Take the Giants. |
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09-23-17 | Washington v. Colorado +11.5 | 37-10 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Colorado (#354) Mike McIntyre has been a pretty darn good pointspread proposition as the Colorado Buffaloes head coach. He’s 6-3 ATS as a home dog since 2014 and 11-5 ATS in all roles in Boulder; consistently offering value for Buffs backers at the betting window. In contrast, Chris Peterson’s team has been hyped like crazy in Vegas. Since their 4-1 ATS start to the season in 2016, Washington has been a consistent money LOSER, unable to cover inflated margins; just 3-7 ATS against FBS competition. Washington has been a big favorite against FBS competition twice this season – Rutgers and Fresno – failing to cover the spread in either contest. The Huskies haven’t stepped up in class yet this season, 4 TD+ favorites in every game thusfar. The last time we saw them step up in class, they got blown out in the BCS Semi-Finals last January. QB Jake Browning puts up HUGE numbers against weak competition. Against the only four quality defenses he faced last year – Bama, Stanford, Colorado and USC – Jake Browning completed less than half of his passes while averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. I’m not saying that Washington isn’t a good team. I am saying that Washington is an over-rated commodity in the betting markets; not a team that I trust to win by big margins against quality foes on the highway. The Buffs have proven quite adept at stepping up in class in the McIntyre era. Last year, they covered at Michigan, pulled outright upsets against Oregon and Stanford and hung within four at USC. They might be every bit as good this year. Colorado is loaded with skill position weapons, with the deepest and most talented receiving corps in the PAC-12. RB Philip Lindsay is averaging 5.3 yards per carry running behind a loaded, experienced offensive line. And sophomore QB Steven Montez has looked rock solid; a young QB with legit ‘bet-on’ potential. The Buffs are a live dog here against a Huskies team that hasn’t been tested yet, still living on their laurels from last year. Take Colorado. |
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09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa +13 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 33 h 39 m | Show | |
Take Iowa (#318) Iowa pulls an upset – or comes pretty darn close -- in a game like this one almost every year. They beat Michigan outright as three TD underdogs on this field last year. In 2015, they knocked off Wisconsin as dogs, and nearly pulled the upset in a wire-2-wire spread cover as dogs against Michigan State. In 2014, the Hawkeyes beat Pitt as a dog, and lost by only two to Wisconsin at +8. In 2013, the Hawkeyes hung around against Ohio State as 19 points dogs, upset Nebraska and covered wire-2-wire as dogs against LSU. In 2012, they won outright as dogs against Michigan State and nearly upset Nebraska as two TD dogs. I could go back further – Kirk Ferentz has been there for 19 years now – but you get my point. Iowa is consistently a tough out in games like this one. The markets have officially fallen in love with Penn State, and it’s easy to understand why. The Nittany Lions have been a pointspread covering machine: 3-0 SU and ATS this season (2-0-1 for some) on the heels of their 10-0 ATS mark to close out the 2016 campaign (9-0-1 for some). When a team covers the spread for 13 consecutive games, bettors notice. Markets notice. Bookies get tired of getting burned by the same team week after week. And that’s how you end up with a pointspread like this one, completely out of whack with historical norms – the Nittany Lions were underdogs the last time they played on this field. Penn State stepped up in class on the highway a handful of times in 2015 and 2016. They lost 38-10 at Ohio State in 2015, followed by a 23-21 loss at Northwestern and a 55-16 loss to Michigan State. Last year, the Nittany Lions faced Michigan in Ann Arbor and lost 49-10. They also lost in SU fashion on the highway at Pitt, 42-39. Their road wins in 2016? Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers; all bottom feeders. In short, Penn State has absolutely no track record of winning on the road against quality competition by double digit margins. Iowa is not loaded with skill position talent, but the Hawkeyes are certainly capable of banging in the trenches with the Nittany Lions – they’re not going to get pushed around on either side of the line of scrimmage. The markets have shown little respect for Iowa all season, and last week’s sluggish effort against North Texas didn’t exactly impress bettors. And last year’s loss at Penn State – a 41-14 shellacking – also has the markets devaluing Iowa. But this pointspread range has brought the Penn State love and Iowa antipathy a good notch or two too far. There’s simply too much value on this ‘live’ home dog to ignore, especially for a contest lined in the low 50’s! Take Iowa. |
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09-23-17 | Auburn -17.5 v. Missouri | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#373) This could be a one sentence write-up. ‘You can stick a fork in them, because Missouri is done’. It’s not even October yet, yet the Tigers have given up on their coach and their season. There’s no sugarcoating what has happened so far. Reports out of Columbia indicate a team in complete disarray. The Tigers spent all offseason practicing their offense at a breakneck pace. Now that the season has started, this ‘uptempo’ attack ranks #114 in the country; running only 61 plays per game. Why? Because their defense is so bad, the Tigers can’t even get their offense onto the field. And when Drew Lock and company get their chance to shine, the results have been ugly. Forget the opener against Missouri State; a game where Missou was a five TD favorite (they didn’t cover). In two games against ‘real’ teams – South Carolina and Purdue – Lock and the Tigers offense have been held to a grand total of 16 points. Lock completed less than half his passes in both of those contests, throwing for under 400 yards combined, despite the fact that Missouri was trailing start to finish in those games. Missouri had a legitimate chance to step up last week against a suspect Purdue squad that has been a Big 10 bottom feeder for the last decade. Instead, they were non-competitive – at home, as favorites – in a game that was over well before halftime. Missouri has already fired their defensive coordinator; arguably the worst Power 5 conference defense in the country. Their offense isn’t working, despite returning ten starters on that side of the ball. It’s pretty clear that head coach Barry Odom is in over his head; a first time head coach for the program he starred at in the 90’s. Missouri cannot be expected to play competitive football moving forward. Auburn struggled against Clemson’s elite defensive front two weeks ago; unable to move the football. Last week, against lowly Mercer, the Tigers committed five turnovers, including three inside Mercer’s 30 yard line, taking away potential scores; a clear ‘flat’ effort following their defeat against Clemson. I’m not expecting such lethargy this week for their SEC opener against a team they are primed to annihilate. Gus Malzahn isn’t known for taking his foot off the gas pedal, especially considering the Tigers offensive woes in early season play. Five of Auburn’s eight wins last year came by 24 points or more, and they’re coming into this game with a chip on their collective shoulders and something to prove. No surprise here if this spread, much like last week’s Missouri game against Purdue, is covered by halftime. Take Auburn. |
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09-23-17 | Duke v. North Carolina +2.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 49 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take North Carolina (#312) There seems to be a fair bit of anti-Tar Heels vitriol in this pointspread, because, quite frankly, Duke has no business as road favorites in this ballgame. Based on the early market moves, I’m not convinced the Blue Devils will be favored at all by kickoff – this is one that you want to bet sooner, rather than later. I understand that Larry Fedora’s squad looked very rough for the first few weeks of the campaign, and there’s no surprise why. The Tar Heels sent their QB to the first round of the NFL draft, lost their top four running backs to graduation and sent WR Ryan Switzer to the NFL in the fourth round. That’s a LOT of talent for a program like North Carolina to replace in one offseason. No surprise, then, that the Tar Heels couldn’t trade points with Cal and Louisville in their first two games of the season. But Larry Fedora is a bright offensive mind, and there’s no question that the Tar Heels found some offensive mojo last week, on the road at Old Dominion, hanging 53 on the Monarchs. Frosh Chazz Surratt, a Top 20 QB recruit coming out of high school, has taken over at quarterback, without an interception in his first 66 collegiate pass attempts. RB’s Jordan Brown and Michael Carter – also, both Top 40 recruits nationally – are both averaging nearly 5 ½ yards per carry. Seven different receivers have averaged at least two catches per game, a deep receiving corps. Their offensive line is loaded and even kicker Freeman Jones is one of the best at his positon in the country. Fedora has recruited well here – the cupboard is most assuredly not bare for the Tar Heels offense, despite their 1-2 record. Duke is not built to stop potent offenses. Lowly Baylor couldn’t move the ball against the likes of Texas –San Antonio at home two weeks ago. Last week, the Bears connected for a pair of 70+ yard touchdown catches against Duke’s defense. The only reason the Blue Devils won by 14 was due to a pick six, something we don’t see many of from the Duke defense and their relatively limited athleticism. The Tar Heels hung 66 on Duke when the Blue Devils last visited Chapel Hill, but the Blue Devils stole a one point win at home last year, rallying from two TD’s down and holding North Carolina off the scoreboard in the fourth quarter. Fedora following that loss: “Every time we would make a play, we would shoot ourselves in the foot on the next one or something would happen.” Make no mistake about it – this is absolutely a ‘circled’ game on the Tar Heels schedule this year, a major ‘step-up’ spot. Duke has more freshmen and sophomores starting on defense (five) than seniors (three). They’ve yet to face a potent offense clicking on all cylinders – Northwestern was all banged up on offense in their loss to Duke. The Blue Devils are leaving home for the first time all season, stepping up in class and laying points against an underrated foe. That’s a ‘bet-against’ trifecta for me! Big Ticket: Take North Carolina.! |
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09-21-17 | Rams -2 v. 49ers | 41-39 | Push | 0 | 53 h 46 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#301) Let me start with an excerpt from my Monday Night Football write-up supporting the Lions over the Giants. “These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either.” And that’s the crux of this bet. I circled this quote in preseason, from 12 year veteran left tackle Joe Staley, talking about the complexity of the 49ers new offense, and the team’s struggles to learn it: “I think one of the things that even I wasn’t expecting was how detailed you have to be in everything as far as the run game. Aiming points. Everyone’s got to be on the same page — running backs, linemen, receivers, everybody, for it to work.” The 49ers entered the season without a QB who threw a pass or a WR who caught a pass on the roster from last year. They’ve yet to reach the end zone. And the 49ers certainly aren’t a team with a significant home field edge these days, just 2-7 ATS at Levi Stadium since the start of the 2016 campaign. This offense isn’t working and San Fran is not a team likely to be marching up and down the field consistently anytime soon. The Rams just got run over by the Redskins, but there were many positive signs in that defeat. Todd Gurley, following the late loss: “Last year, it would have been a lot different. It would have been 27-3, instead of us, as an offense, being able to put points on the board and being able to keep our defense in it. It’s a start.” The Rams have stalwart defensive tackle Aaron Donald back on the field after his long holdout. And unlike the Niners, LA’s offense is working. Jared Goff had a 63.6 QB rating last year while averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt. This year it’s a 103.2 QB rating and 9.8 yards per pass attempt; a HUGE difference (and a big confidence boost) for a young quarterback. The Rams got swept by San Francisco last year, the 49ers only two wins of the season. Expect LA to get a little payback on Thursday Night in a pointspread range that ensures a victory by a field goal will cash our winning bet. Take the Rams. |
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09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 24-10 | Win | 105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#289) These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either. The defense that shut down the G-men got torched for six touchdowns yesterday. New York has a mediocre QB in Eli Manning, an offensive line that ranks among the weaker ones in the NFL and a very banged up receiving corps, whether OBJ plays or not. And oh, by the way, this offense has gotten statistically weaker every year since Bob McAdoo arrived as the offensive coordinator; even more so since he became the head coach. All the Lions do is play close games – nine of their sixteen games last year were decided LESS than a touchdown. Matthew Stafford led the NFL in fourth quarter comebacks last year and he engineered another one in Week 1 – the Lions have shown ample character responding from adversity. Jim Caldwell’s squad won SU as road underdogs at Indy, Minnesota and New Orleans last year, and they just might have the most electrifying player on the field in rookie WR Kenny Golladay, who has been turning heads since Day 1 of training camp. Find a +3.5 and grab it! Take the Lions |
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09-17-17 | Dolphins +4 v. Chargers | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#277) My initial thought on the ‘hurricane impeded’ teams in both the NFL and college was to fade them at every reasonable opportunity. And, at first glance, the Miami Dolphins certainly had the look of a team who would be negatively impacted by the weather event in South Florida, much like the Houston Texans were negatively influenced by Hurricane Harvey in their opener last week. But the knee jerk reaction – ‘fade this team’ – didn’t hold water once I started doing some digging on this game. In fact, the opposite was true – Miami is a ‘bet-on’ squad this week, plain and simple. The Dolphins coaching staff had their act together. The team charter left for LA last Friday, with players AND THEIR FAMILIES invited to leave town. They’ve been practicing at the Cowboys facility in Oxnard ever since, focused on only one thing – beating the LA Chargers. The Chargers are on a short week, and their entire focus was on beating Denver on Monday Night. In terms of ‘preparation for the opponent at hand’, Adam Gase and his staff have a significant edge. That’s not the only edge for Miami in this contest. The Chargers defense was on the field for 68 snaps against Denver, in altitude. Now they’ve got a short week to get ready for the type of speedy playmakers they didn’t see in Denver on Monday Night, and a QB protected by a much stronger offensive line than the one they saw against the Broncos. Make no mistake about it – Miami has weapons to stretch the field with Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Julius Thomas and DeVante Parker. They’ve got offensive balance, with Jay Ajayi running behind that rock solid offensive line. And while Jay Cutler gives some bettors recurring nightmares, the bottom line is that Cutler knows this system well from his time under Gase in Chicago, primed to succeed in his Dolphins debut. Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. And when you talk about a home field edge – well, the Chargers don’t have one in a venue that is just as new to them as it is to Miami. And let’s be real – the city of LA is not excited about hosting a team from San Diego. StubHub Center seats only 27,000, yet this game is not sold out – not even close. The Rams – a team with a legit LA fan base – are kicking off across town 20 minutes later. So, let me recap. The Dolphins are power rated in the same range as the Chargers – no talent edge for the home team. Miami has a strong situational edge, the focus edge, the rest and practice edge PLUS the Chargers have no real home field edge. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. I expect the outright upset, but a close loss will serve our purposes just fine in this pointspread range! Big Ticket: Take the Dolphins. |
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09-17-17 | Vikings +6 v. Steelers | 9-26 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#273) Minnesota’s win against the Saints on Monday Night wasn’t fraudulent in the slightest. There were three key factors in play, all of which should still be in play as they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. First, Sam Bradford finally had a full, healthy offseason in the same offensive system. Bradford was under duress throughout his tenure in St Louis, playing behind a dismal offensive line and a handful of new coordinators. He struggled to pick up the offense when he was traded to Philly, then struggled to learn Chip Kelly’s complex scheme. Last year, he was traded in training camp to Minnesota. So this is really the first time in his career that Sam Bradford spent the entire offseason with the same team working on the same offense he ran last year. Guess what – it showed! Bradford was the ultimate dink and dunker last year, but he was firing away downfield on Monday Night, hitting WR’s Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs 16 times for 250 yards! Second, Sam Bradford has at least a serviceable offensive line to throw behind. The Vikings OL last year was an injury riddled disaster area. They spent big $$ in free agency and significant draft capital to shore up the unit and their running game. That improvement was on full display in Week 1, and it was no mirage. Bradford’s quote: “When I’ve got time to sit back there and evaluate things, I’ve got all the confidence in the world that our receivers on the outside are going to win.” Third, the Vikings defense was elite last year before finally wearing down late, capable of winning games by themselves, despite a very mediocre offense. That defense sure looks elite once again, holding the Saints out of the end zone until garbage time, with five pro bowlers on that side of the football. Let’s not forget how much success Mike Zimmer’s defense has had against Ben Roethlisberger over the years. During Zimmer’s tenure as the Bengals defensive coordinator, Big Ben had a QB rating of only 81.6 in ten games against Cinci –mediocre, not elite. The Steelers, on paper, still have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. That was not on display in Cleveland last week, a game where the Steelers had a grand total of two scoring drives, while gaining less than 300 yards of total offense. Mike Tomlin didn’t get his regulars much playing time in August, and it showed. Stepping up in class against an elite defense here won’t help Pittsburgh win this one by margin….if they win the game at all. Take the Vikings. |
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09-17-17 | Browns +9 v. Ravens | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#263) So let me get this straight. Joe Flacco missed all of preseason; one of many injured veterans for the Ravens in August. Baltimore lost nearly a dozen guys to IR in training camp, losing key bodies on both sides of the football. Flacco was VERY rusty last week, completing only nine passes. The Ravens, as a team, had only one explosive play on offense for the entire game – one of Jeremy Maclin’s two catches. They ran for only 3.7 yards per carry. And John Harbaugh’s squad produced a grand total of one touchdown on a drive longer than two yards for the entire game. And now this team is taking $$, laying more than a TD to the Browns? I’m not buying it! Yes, Baltimore’s defense generated pressure against a very suspect Cinci offensive line. And yes, that defense forced four turnovers against a QB with a long track record of failing miserably under pressure. But they were underdogs last week; transitoning to favorites this Sunday. And that makes a BIG difference, when it comes to the Baltimore Ravens. The numbers don’t lie. In their last dozen tries as favorites of more than a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens are 2-10 ATS. Six of their eight wins last year came by a TD or less. NONE of their wins in 2015 came by more than a TD. Flacco is light years away from being 100%, still dealing with a herniated disk in his back. The Ravens do not have an elite offensive line and their skill position talent base is as weak as it gets among potential playoff contenders. Yet the betting markets are looking at Baltimore’s defense and thinking it can cover pointspreads by themselves, the way the Ravens were capable of covering spreads with their D for much of the Ray Lewis era. After all, they pitched a shutout last week, and now get to face a rookie QB making his road debut. I’m not buying that argument one iota. The Ravens rebuilt their ‘D’ this past offseason – this isn’t a tried and tested unit. They just faced a team with major offensive line concerns, now facing a squad with a top tier OL. And, oh, by the way, Baltimore has to win this game by more than a TD to cover the spread, something they’ve repeatedly struggled to do. Count me in as a Cleveland Browns believer. They were every bit as good as Pittsburgh last week, losing the game only because of a blocked punt TD; not something I would expect to see again in Week 2. DeShone Kizer came from a bigtime college program at Notre Dame, and showed great poise in Week 1, despite taking numerous hits. WR Corey Coleman showed playmaking ability, something the Browns didn’t have last year. The OL wasn’t great in the opener, but it’s a ‘Night and Day’ stronger unit than last year. The Browns defense was great against Pittsburgh, stepping down in class here. This is, quite simply, too many points for a Ravens team that doesn’t win many games by margin to lay. And Cleveland was so bad last year that there is clearly residual value to support them in early season action here in 2017. Expect a competitive contest. Take the Browns. |
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09-16-17 | Ole Miss v. California +4 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show | |
Take California (#208) In many recent seasons, the Ole Miss Rebels have been competing for SEC West titles. They beat Alabama in 2014 AND 2015, while blowing out the likes of Georgia, Tennessee, Boise and Texas A&M, finishing near the top of the SEC standings both times. That was then, this is now. Ole Miss fell to 5-7 last year, missing a bowl. They were blown out as ‘more than a TD’ favorites by the likes of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to close out the campaign, with a bowl bid on the line, not showing any resolve or chemistry as a squad. Then head coach Hugh Freeze got caught up in an embarrassing scandal, fired late in the offseason. He was replaced by co-offensive coordinator and Rebels alumnus Matt Luke (a big reason why Luke got the interim job over other potential candidates). What have we seen in the first two weeks of the Matt Luke era? Enough red flags to make Cal a clear choice for me on Saturday Night! Let’s start with the fact that they were outrushed at home by Tennessee Martin last week by a 219-54 margin. Yes, that’s a non- D-1 school outrushing Ole Miss by a 4:1 margin on their home field! It was a similar story against South Alabama in their opener – the Jaguars had more first downs than the Rebels, and outrushed Ole Miss 4.6 to 3.5 yards per carry. That’s a middling Sun Belt school pushing around the Ole Miss defensive front on their home field! It’s also a one dimensional offense – pass only – that is much easier for opposing coordinators to defend. Things get much tougher for the Rebels this week as they fly cross country to take on resurgent Cal in a game that won’t end until well after midnight for the Rebels player’s body clocks. Cal’s defense has had some early season struggles with big plays, but their offense has been nothing short of dynamic. Here’s the key quote: “It’s hard to find a common thread on the explosive plays. I don’t think it was, ‘Hey, they’re better than us.’ I think they are correctable issues. They’re not consistently getting beat by guys who are faster and more athletic.” Cal won eight games in 2015 and beat the likes of Texas, Utah, Oregon and UCLA last year; not the PAC-12 bottom feeder that some have them pegged as. QB Ross Bowers and WR’s Demetris Robinson – the #2 WR recruit in the country when he signed at Berkeley -- and Vic Wharton already have a nice chemistry together in their first year under Justin Wilcox. This game has ‘down to the last possession’ written all over it, making Ole Miss a clear ‘fade’ as road chalk on Saturday Night. Take Cal. |
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09-16-17 | Troy -7 v. New Mexico State | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Troy (#197) The Trojans beat New Mexico State 41-24 in 2014. They won here in Las Cruces 52-7 in 2015. They beat the Aggies 52-6 back at home last year. So what’s so different in 2017 that will allow the Aggies to hang within a TD of the Trojans? NOTHING! Sure, New Mexico State is 2-0 ATS while Troy is 0-2 ATS, but that’s why this pointspread is so short for a team that was a three TD favorite in a game they won by 46 points last year. The Trojans brought back just about everyone on offense. It starts with senior QB Brandon Silvers, who threw for 23 TD’s while completing 64% of his passes last year. Silvers has a trio of returning senior starters at wide receiver; a group with special chemistry – this team returns 98.7% of last year’s offensive production, tops in the country. It’s surely worth noting that Silvers has picked apart the slower Aggies defense in both previous starts against them, to the tune of 7 TD’s without an interception. New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE victory against their biggest rival, New Mexico, barely hanging on after blowing nearly all of a 30-5 fourth quarter lead. Following their three wins last year, the Aggies lost each of their next games by 20+ points, unable to maintain their intensity. And we’re certainly not talking about a program that gets many wins; 11-39 in five seasons under Doug Martin. The Aggies lack defensive speed, ranked among the bottom ten pass defenses in college football in each of the last two seasons. And their offense isn’t good enough to trade points with the likes of Troy, not even close. The Lobos spent all kinds of time in the offseason and through the first two weeks of the campaign working on slowing down the New Mexico option attack. It worked – they won, for the second straight season. But now they face the antithesis of that attack the following week, without extra prep time – Troy is going to spread the field and air It out, then pound the ball up the gut with their 240 pound bowling bowl of a running back. That’s particularly bad news for an Aggies defense that will be missing their best player in the secondary, senior safety Jaden Wright, an All-Conference second teamer last year. Don’t expect many stops from the Aggies defense this year either, in a game that has real ‘blowout’ potential. Take Troy. |
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09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams -3.5 | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#472) The Colts aren’t just weak without Andrew Luck behind center. My numbers show Indy as the #31 team in the NFL with Scott Tolzien as their starting quarterback, like he will be here in Week 1. Tolzien might have been the weakest backup in the NFL. Now he’s the weakest starter. He started one game for the Colts last year. They lost that game 28-7; Tolzien had more interceptions than touchdowns. Tolzien also had a couple of starts with Green Bay back in 2013. The Packers lost both games that he started and finished by double digit margins as well. But it’s not just the Scott Tolzien factor. Indy’s offensive line allowed 44 sacks last year; bottom five in the NFL. That offensive line has not been upgraded in the offseason. Neither has their depleted receiving corps. And defensively, this squad has gone through a complete offseason rebuild, with as many as seven new starters expected on the field in LA on Sunday. Long term, that’s probably a good thing for a D that tied for dead last in the NFL on a yards per play basis last year. Short term, we’re talking about a completely rebuilt stop unit that will inevitably lack chemistry. Their pass rush ranks among the weakest in the NFL and their rebuilt secondary is a major question mark with a pair of rookies penciled in as starters, now that pro bowl CB Vontae Davis has been ruled out for the opener. This is not a team primed to win many games right now, arguably my #1 ‘bet-against’ team in the NFL heading into the regular season. The Rams went 3-1 in September last year before the injury bug started to bite and the bottom fell out. No surprise here if LA starts strong again in the Sean McVay era as well. The Rams have strong defensive personnel and coordinator Wade Phillips is known for quick turnarounds at previous stops. Their offensive line was upgraded in the offseason as well, giving Jared Goff a fighting chance to develop into the elite QB that the Rams thought he would be when they took him #1 overall. Bottom line: this is a cheap price to lay to bet against the Colts! Take the Rams. |
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09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans +1 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -115 | 458 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tennessee (#464) I could literally write a book about why Tennessee is such a great bet in a pick ‘em price range in Week 1 at home against the Raiders. But I’m going to abbreviate and keep this one short. There are two basic components: #1: Tennessee is really good. The Titans went 8-4 down the stretch last year; including wins over playoff bound foes like Green Bay, Houston and Kansas City. Their home field was particularly strong, winning and covering each of their last four. This year’s Titans squad is primed to be even better than last year’s team. A defense that forced only 18 takeaways in 16 games last season brought in ‘instant impact’ playmaker Logan Ryan to shore up their secondary. And the Corey Davis/Taywan Taylor duo taken in the draft have upgraded Marcus Mariota’s weaponry. Throw in an elite offensive line and a strong tier of running backs, and the Titans are primed to build off last year’s success, starting right here in Week 1. The Titans lost at home to Minnesota in Week 1 last year and they followed that up with a Week 3 home loss to the Raiders thanks to a +2 turnover margin and a late defensive stand. Tennessee ended up missing the playoffs due to tiebreakers because of those two losses. There’s a legitimate sense of urgency for the Titans to come out of the gate with a win this time around, good news for us in this pick ‘em price range. And #2, there are ample reasons to expect the Raiders to come out sluggish in Week 1. Obviously, an early start game back East requires a ratchet to the system – all four of their preseason games were played at night out West. Oakland committed only 14 giveaways last year, a number primed to rise significantly. And the Raiders 6-0 SU mark in games decided by less than a TD is also primed for regression. Perhaps most importantly, the Raiders don’t match up well with Tennessee. Oakland’s biggest weakness heading into the season is their front seven on defense, very questionable against the run. This defense ranked next to last in the NFL, allowing six yards per play last year. Their pass rush couldn’t reach the QB, ranked dead last in sacks, and their run defense was bottom quartile in yards per rush allowed. Neither area was properly addressed in the offseason, and both their lack of pass rush and their struggles defending the run are likely to be problematic here. Oakland pulled off a bunch of last minute comebacks last year; very difficult to repeat when it comes to a Week 1 matchup against a talented and motivated foe. Big Ticket: Take the Tennessee Titans. |
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09-10-17 | Eagles v. Redskins | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#459) Last year, Washington was the better of these two teams. This year, the pendulum has clearly shifted – the Redskins are the likely last place squad in the NFC East, while the Eagles are an ascending team on the rise. That makes this near pick ‘em price range for the Week 1 matchup a clear choice for this bettor – the Eagles are worthy of support in a game I expect them to win. The Redskins have all kinds of issues on offense. Statistically, Kirk Cousins has been a Top 10 QB in each of the last two seasons, but he lost his top two receivers in the offseason; Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. I’m not convinced that Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson can fill those big shoes. This team averaged 6.4 yards per play on offense last year, #2 in the NFL. They were also #2 in yards per pass attempt and in the top quartile at yards per rush. Yet despite those impressive offensive numbers, the Skins still weren’t a playoff team. And the only way those offensive numbers are trending in 2017 is down! Defensively, this squad has major problems. They were bottom quartile of the NFL in yards per play allowed last year, struggling all season to generate a pass rush and to stop the run. The defensive line has been completely rebuilt, with three new starters in 2017. And it’s not like the Redskins enjoy any sort of tremendous home field edge; a team that has only enjoyed one winning season on this field since 2012. The Eagles made a handful of ‘win now’ moves in August, most notably acquiring starting cornerback Ronald Darby from Buffalo. After getting swept by the Redskins in each of the last two seasons, this game truly is circled on Philly’s schedule – they’re clearly the superior team heading into the campaign; worthy of a wager in a pointspread range where a SU win equates with an ATS victory. Take the Eagles. |
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09-09-17 | UTSA v. Baylor -17 | 17-10 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Baylor (#352) Any college football coach will tell you that the single biggest ‘improvement’ week of the entire season is between Week 1 and Week 2 of the season. These teams don’t play preseason games, and there’s often a ‘getting the rust out’ element in Week 1. Especially when a team plays poorly in their debut, there’s all kinds of film study, so guys can learn from their mistakes. When a team loses outright as 34 point favorites, like Baylor did on opening day, two things are inevitable consequences. First, the markets will devalue a team like Baylor, with a first year head coach trying to stabilize a formerly elite program that has now lost seven consecutive regular season games. And secondly, that team gets a real wakeup call. Squads like Baylor tend to bounce back STRONG the following week, especially against lesser competition like the UTSA Roadrunners. Matt Rhule certainly expects a strong bounceback this week. “You learn more from a loss.” QB Anu Solomon was just fine in his Bears debut, a guy with 27 collegiate starts at Arizona under his belt. His receivers had the dropsies last week; not likely to be a long term problem for this talented corps of wideouts. And, perhaps most importantly, Baylor will get some much needed help for their secondary as injured starters Davion Hall and Jameson Houston – their two best defenders against the pass – are both expected to return to the lineup after missing last week’s game. So we’ve got a motivated and talented favorite playing with a real chip on their shoulders this week; a clear bet-on situation. Baylor has been dismissed in the betting markets enough to offer tremendous value in this pointspread range. And their opponent, Texas- San Antonio, lacks the type of explosive, skill position talent to put the Bears back on their heels. The last time the Roadrunners were in a situation like this one, they lost 69-14 at Oklahoma State in 2015. And the fact that UTSA’s game against Houston last week was cancelled due to Hurricane Harvey is particularly problematic – the favorite here has already worked the rust out, but the underdog hasn’t. Expect a blowout. Take Baylor. |
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09-09-17 | Auburn +6 v. Clemson | 6-14 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Auburn (#377) When Cam Newton was the QB at Auburn for a single season, the Tigers went 14-0 and won the national championship. Newton, obviously, was an elite QB talent, who brought his NFL team (Carolina) to the Super Bowl. In 2013, Auburn reached the national title game again, losing (but covering the spread in a three point loss) to Florida State with Nick Marshall as their starting QB. Marshall was no NFL prospect, but the rest of the roster was good enough to carry this team all the way through their brutal SEC slate into a championship tilt under Gus Malzahn. Since Marshall graduated, Auburn’s QB play has been nothing short of abysmal. Sean White and Jeremy Johnson were just awful, forcing Malzahn to dial his offense waaaaaaay back. That’s a big part of the reason why Auburn went just 7-6 and 8-5 in the last two years. Despite truly bottom tier QB play, the Tigers didn’t crash and burn, like South Carolina last year. No, there was enough talent on this roster to beat the likes of LSU, Ole Miss, Louisville and Texas A&M, among others, during that span. Auburn still has front line talent all over the field, particularly on the defensive side of the football where, quite literally, every single starter has an NFL upside. It’s a similar story with their skill position talent on offense – lots of guys who are going to be playing on Sundays in a year or two. The Tigers offensive line returns 106 career starts, an elite unit. Even against a team like Clemson, Auburn has the talent to match up. In fact, Auburn matched up pretty darn well with Clemson last year when they met on opening day. Auburn held Clemson to a season low in both points and yards, despite facing an elite talent like Deshaun Watson. And this year, Auburn’s got a quarterback! I know that Jarrett Stidham wasn’t flawless in his debut last week vs. Georgia Southern. But make no mistake about it – Malzahn didn’t open up the playbook last week AND Stidham got the rust out after sitting all of last year. This is the best QB they’ve had since Cam Newton and I expect that to show on Saturday Night. Clemson is most assuredly still elite. But the defending national champs went 7-1 in games decided by a TD or less last year, despite the presence of Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, Wayne Gallman, Cordrea Tankersley, Carlos Watkins and Jordan Leggett, all of whom play for pay on Sundays now. Clemson will be hard pressed to win nearly every close game again this year, and it’s surely worth noting that despite national championship level talent, Clemson has not produced a profit as a home favorite in either of the last two seasons. Handicapping 101 says to beware of a team that looked too good against lesser competition on national TV the previous week. Clemson destroyed Kent – a true bottom feeder – and looked good doing it. I’m not convinced that new starting QB Kelly Bryant is going to have anywhere near the same level of success this week against a different class of defense. Take the points here, but be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline – Auburn is live to win this one in SU fashion. Take Auburn. |
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09-09-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Rutgers -5 | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Rutgers (#312) Rutgers was as weak as any Power 5 conference school in the country last year – including hopeless Kansas, Purdue, Virginia or Illinois. A team that had been to four bowls in the previous five seasons dropped to 2-10 in Chris Ash’s first year on the job. The record doesn’t even tell the full story. Rutgers lost games 58-0, 78-0, 49-0 and 39-0 in 2016, completely non-competitive for extended stretches of the season. A drop-off like that requires a MAJOR power ratings adjustment, and by the end of the season the Scarlet Knights were power rated in the betting markets like a Kansas or an Illinois; true bottom feeders. But this program isn’t hopeless, by any stretch of the imagination. Last year’s debacle was all about a new coach trying to install new schemes with a roster that was riddled with injuries from top to bottom. From an opening power rating standpoint, the markets adjusted Rutgers up a notch or two in the offseason, but not much more than that. And even after the Scarlet Knights were competitive in defeat as four touchdown home underdogs to Top 10 Washington, the markets still haven’t made any significant adjustment for a team that is at least two touchdowns better right now than they were last November. All the quotes coming out of New Brunswick this week have been positive, a team focused on snapping a losing streak that dates back to beating New Mexico last September….which was the last time the Scarlet Knights were favored. It’s surely worth noting that Rutgers has actually been pretty good as chalk, winning four out of five in that role over the past two seasons, despite their struggles in Big 10 play. Offensive coordinator Jerry Kill was extremely conservative last week against Washington’s playmaking defense. The Eastern Michigan defense they’ll face this week is of a slightly different caliber. And the quotes coming from the offense were very positive, especially concerning the offensive line. Senior running back Robert Martin: “The offensive line played real good. They pass blocked real good. They were just hungry. All camp our coaches were pushing them, saying we're a line of scrimmage team, it starts up front. They bought in this whole camp. They continue to get better and you saw that.” Offensive line coach AJ Blazek: “The better they get, the more confident our quarterbacks get and it makes it a lot easier to stand in there and throw it around." Rutgers hasn’t won a game since last September, and this is a legitimate step down in class for a program that is HUNGRY for victory. For Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, it’s a relatively meaningless non-conference tilt for a squad with absolutely no track record of beating Power 5 conference schools on any field. Let’s not forget what happened to the Eagles last year, following a surprisingly comfortable Week 1 home win (just like they enjoyed against Charlotte last week). Chris Creighton’s squad went to miserable Missouri (4-8 last year) and lost by 40……. Take Rutgers. |
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09-02-17 | Wyoming +11.5 v. Iowa | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#155) Iowa has been burning their backers money in roles like this one for years; a team with a track record of ATS failure in Week 1 under Kirk Ferentz. The results don’t lie. My numbers show Iowa on a 2-10 ATS run as Week 1 chalk. They failed to cover against Miami-O in this role last year and lost outright to Northern Illinois in their previous try against an FBS foe. And given the limitations of the Hawkeyes offense this year, I’m not convinced in the slightest that the Hawkeyes are capable of covering double digits against Wyoming in early start action on Saturday. The Hawkeyes are not a team that is poised to build big margins and hold them. My numbers show Iowa at 10-20 ATS as home favorites over the past five seasons. They’ve been moneymakers as underdogs and moneymakers as road chalk, but asking this team wo win by double digits at Kinnick Stadium has been an exercise in futility. Don’t expect that to change Week 1, especially given the Hawkeyes weak corps of skill position talent. Make no mistake about it: Iowa is weak in the ‘skill position talent’ category; a team that lacks explosive playmakers. Sophomore QB Nathan Stanley won the job in camp and Hawkeyes new, first time offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz (Kirk’s son) has installed a run heavy offense. Expect a heavy dose of ‘ground and pound’ for the Hawkeyes in this one; not a gameplan to build big margins and hold them. The Hawkeyes also have a legitimate problem on the defensive side of the football. They lost a pair of starters in the secondary to graduation, and lost their best returnee, Brandon Snyder, to a torn ACL in the spring. His replacement, Manny Rugamba, has been suspended for the opener. Leading pass rusher Jaleel Johnson is playing for the Minnesota Vikings this year, leaving the Hawkeyes lacking the defensive playmakers to slow down Josh Allen and the explosive Wyoming passing game. Allen is likely to be a first round draft choice next year, something I don’t write very often when it comes to Wyoming quarterbacks. Iowa CB Josh Jackson knows what he’s up against: “He does things a lot of quarterbacks can’t do. On tape, you see him make plays all over the field. He has an accurate arm and a strong arm. They aren’t afraid to throw deep. He’s impressive.’’ Allen, talking about his improved decision making from last year: “There were times last season when I threw into triple coverage or threw the ball across my body when there was no need to. I’m working to make better decisions and become better that way.” Wyoming has the superior playmaking talent here, which means the backdoor is wide open…. assuming the Cowboys don’t already have the lead when the fourth quarter begins. Live dog here! Take Wyoming. |
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09-01-17 | Boston College -3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 23-20 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Boston College (#149) Steve Addazio has taken BC to bowl games in three of his four season on the job with the Eagles in large part because Boston College has been remarkably adept at winning games like this one, where they step down in class. Last year is a prime example. The Eagles showed no ability to step up in class whatsoever in 2016. This was not a particularly dynamic offense, by any stretch of the imagination, averaging just 20 points per game for the season. But when you take a closer look, inside the numbers, you’ll find that BC got clobbered by the elites, losing by a combined margin of 202-24 against the likes of Clemson, Florida State, Louisville and Virginia Tech – the four best teams they faced. BC can’t handle elite talent in the trenches, nor do they have the defensive speed to hang tough with elite skill position players. But when BC was laying points against weaker foes in 2016, they did just fine. The Eagles laid 16.5 to UMass and won by 19. They laid 34 to Wagner and won by 32. They laid 18 to Buffalo and won by 32. And they laid 8 to UConn, winning that game by 30. Taking big points with BC in 2016 was a disaster, but laying points with the Eagles was a profitable endeavor. So what’s different for 2017? Northern Illinois is weaker, for one! The Huskies have been on a downward slide in the MAC pecking order, with their win total declining from 12 to 11 to 8 to 5 in Rod Carey’s first four years on the job. Now the Huskies are tasked with replacing their top playmaker on offense, Kenny Golladay, who has turned heads throughout the preseason for the Detroit Lions, as well as their starting QB. Without a single senior on the offensive line, the Huskies will be hard pressed to hang tough with the Eagles in the trenches. And a Huskies defense that allowed more than 200 yards per game on the ground last year isn’t primed to bully the Eagles in the trenches on defense either. Look for BC to wear this team down and take control of the game by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. Take Boston College. |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe v. Memphis -25.5 | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#138) Rule #1 for Week 1 of the college football season? KISS: Keep it simple, stupid! And this game falls right into that category, clear as day. Louisiana – Monroe was a true bottom feeder in Matt Viator’s first season on the job in 2016. They did win four games – three against fellow bottom feeding Sun Belt squads, one against a 1-AA squad – but were completely non-competitive when stepping out of conference. They lost 59-17 at Oklahoma, 58-7 at Auburn and even 59-17 against New Mexico. And there’s no reason to expect anything different as the War Hawks step up in class again here, for their season opener. Coach Viator knows what’s coming for his undersized and relatively slow defense on Thursday Night: “You know looking at it is preparing for the no-huddle [offense]. We do some of it in practice. But, you're trying to coach and teach and sometimes I never really know if we're quite ready for that, to be honest. And, that concerns me." Viator has another major stumbling block here – nobody won the QB derby in camp. “Caleb Evans will start the game at quarterback Thursday night against Memphis. Garrett Smith will come in quick..." That duo did not exactly set the world on fire last year and the fact that neither guy played well enough to win the job in camp is certainly an issue moving forward. With both guys splitting reps with the first team in practice, neither guy has been able to develop the necessary chemistry with his receiving corps to even think about trading points with a team like Memphis. Make no mistake about it – Memphis is loaded with the type of skill position talent that UL Monroe can’t cover. Twice in the last three years, the Tigers have opened the season with 63 point outputs. With QB Riley Ferguson returning for his senior year, 103 career starts returning on the offensive line and a bevy of skill position weapons to work with, the Tigers have a solid shot to have this spread covered by halftime. Expect a blowout! Take Memphis. |
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08-31-17 | Titans +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tennessee (#125) The coaches quotes tell us all we need to know for this ‘meaningless’ preseason finale. Titans head coach Mike Mularkey was not amused with Tennessee’s poor showing last week at home against the Bears. His quotes speak volumes about the intensity level we can expect from the road underdog tonight: “I think they’re frustrated. At least, I got that impression in the locker room afterward. We made too many mistakes, again, the Bears didn’t. We didn’t play well enough. They did. And in this league you can’t afford to do what we did against a good team that’s playing well.” Mularkey, talking about the Titans gameplan for tonight: “Everybody will play this game…..I don't know what the difference between the fourth game and the third game is. There's always that concern. You want to go in healthy to that opener, and right now we're pretty healthy. I have a veteran staff, I trust their opinions……Right now, this is what we did last year. We got some work done." It’s surely worth noting that last year the Titans won their Week 4 preseason game by double digits as underdogs on the road against a playoff team….. And the Titans are also taking the short turnaround between Sunday’s game and this road tilt very seriously as well. Linebacker Derrick Morgan: “It’s really a dress rehearsal for our Sunday game and our Thursday game, because it’s the same type of schedule, so it’s good for our guys to kind of get in that game week mentality with the season less than two weeks away, so we’re ready for that.” Contrast what Mularkey is talking about with this ‘laid back’ quote from Chiefs head coach Andy Reid: “We’ll go ahead and let Patrick start this week. Most likely, the twos will be taking that group along with him and then Tyler (Bray) will also play. I can’t tell you exactly how long I’m going to go with those guys and Joel (Stave) will get into the game also at the quarterback spot. And everybody else kind of follows that as we go.” Reid certainly doesn’t have a ‘bet-on’ track record for games like this one. The points here are a gift! Big Ticket: Take the Titans |
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08-31-17 | Rams v. Packers -3.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Green Bay (#102) Here’s the quote from Rams first year, first time head coach Sean McVay, when asked why Jared Goff isn’t going to play at Green Bay this week: “We’ve made the decision that we were going to get a chance to evaluate the guys that we’re not projecting as starters and get them an opportunity to compete against Green Bay. That will offer an opportunity as well for our starters to kind of start getting in the mindset of preparing for that Indianapolis game.” That’s most assuredly a ‘bet-against’ quote, if I’ve ever seen one. Whenever a coach talks about evaluating depth, and pointing towards a game the following week, it’s a major red flag. Backup Sean Mannion threw 29 passes in relief of Goff last week – the Rams coaching staff has already seen what he can do. LA has ‘no-show’ written all over them this week. The Packers won’t be playing starters either, but both QB’s on the field on Thursday have an excellent track record here in August. Best of all, the two QB’s are locked in a real battle for the third string job – this is meaningful football for both of them. Both Taysom Hill and Joe Callahan have shown tremendous playmaking ability – Hill showing his dual threat capability and Callahan his improvisational skills. Two bet-on QB’s who can create are worth laying points with against a team primed for a no-show on Thursday Night. Take the Packers. |
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08-26-17 | Cardinals +4 v. Falcons | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#263) The defending NFC Champs are laying more than a field goal to Arizona in the Week 3 ‘Regular Season Walkthrough’ matchup tonight. But there’s a world of difference in how these two teams are approaching tonight’s game. Bruce Arians gameplanned for this contest after the Cardinals didn’t do that for their first two preseason games. He’ll be calling plays for the first time this preseason after the Cardinals ran completely ‘vanilla’ schemes in their first two preseason contests. QB Carson Palmer has emphasized the importance of tonight’s game with his teammates, expected to play the entire first half. Arizona’s QB depth behind him is rock solid, with Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton, both of whom have regular season starting experience. The coach-speak and player quotes coming out of Atlanta are very different. The concept? ‘We’ve got a lot of player depth to evaluate’. Atlanta is not going to play their starters as a cohesive unit for multiple series. Head coach Dan Quinn: “Our approach will be more on an individual basis – who we really want to try to feature. Sometimes you see that postgame when you see, boy that guy had a lot of plays in the game, that may have been a player we were really trying to find out about. … There’s a number of guys that we’re really trying to dig in on and find out what they can do. That’s as important to me as what they can’t do, because you have to find out both and what can they do and how can we feature them.” We could get an extended look at Falcons non-prospect Alek Torgersen at QB after halftime. And Quinn has a track record of sitting starters early in Week 3, not stretching them out into the second half. Don’t be shocked here if the Cardinals starters are on the field against the Falcons backups before halftime. And even if the Falcons go into the break with the lead, Arizona’s second half QB rotation is ‘bet-on’ all the way. Live dog here! Take the Cardinals. |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Seahawks | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Kansas City (#257) Pete Carroll is legitimately a ‘bet-on’ coach in August, carrying a 31-14-1 ATS mark in preseason games. That includes a 2-0 mark already this year, beating the Chargers and Vikings by a combined margin of 68-30. So why the heck am I betting against Carroll on Friday Night? Lots of reasons! First, note that when any coach compiles a gaudy preseason track record, the betting markets are forced to adjust. Oddsmakers know full well that $$ would pour in on Seattle at -2.5 or -3, hence the 3.5 for this contest. Quite frankly, my number here is Seattle -1, a clear indicator of the types of adjustments books are forced to make because of the expected Seahawks $$. This line is a good notch or two too high. Secondly, Week 3 is different, the regular season walk-through. Andy Reid has taken this one week very seriously, dating back to his long tenure in Philly, where the Eagles covered Week 3 spreads year after year. The Chiefs won their Week 3 walkthrough 23-7 last year and they beat the Seahawks SU in Week 3 the previous season. Third, Andy Reid has announced that the KC starters will play for three full quarters on Friday Night and the second stringers will close out the game. That means none of the third or fourth string ‘scrubs’ that blew the Week 1 game against San Fran. Don’t be shocked to see KC starters facing off against Seattle backups at some point in this contest, or to see the Chiefs second stringers facing off against Seahawks who won’t make the roster. And fourth, KC is as healthy as they’ve been all August – this is a legit regular season walkthrough. The Chiefs first string offense has been clicking, notching three TD’s and a field goal in their first four drives of preseason. Seattle, on the other hand, just lost starting left tackle George Fant to a season ending injury; not a team that can afford any more hits to their offensive line. Live dog here! Take the Chiefs. |
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08-23-17 | Twins -1.5 v. White Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota on the RUN LINE (#971) My clients and I have cashed a small handful of Twins bets during their current hot streak, and there’s absolutely no reason to jump off the Minnesota profit train tonight, with a Run Line wager being the preferred method of attack this evening. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting Paul Molitor’s squad. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “The Twins are rolling again and swinging very hot bats. Paul Molitor’s squad has pounded out 47 runs while going 6-1 in their last seven contests; 13-4 in their last 17. Veteran leader Joe Mauer after a win over Arizona this past weekend: “To have a good night against a pitcher of Greinke's caliber is definitely a confidence builder… the guys are playing really well right now." “The White Sox are what they are, a tanking team in the midst of a complete rebuild struggling through the dog days of August. With just three wins in their last eleven games and a 10-27 mark since the All Star Break, we’re not talking about a squad that’s brining their ‘A’ game every night, especially after a grueling scheduling stretch, playing their tenth game in the last nine days.” The Twins have won each of Ervin Santana’s last four starts, with Santana allowing only nine earned runs in the process. His lone previous start here on the South Side this season was a gem, throwing six innings of two hit, shutout ball; part of the Twins 7-3 run in their last ten against Chicago. The Twins bullpen behind him is rested and ready to maintain a late lead off Kyle Gibson’s gem last night. And it’s surely worth noting that each of Minnesota’s last eleven victories has come by a multi-run margin, not a team that consistently burns Run Line bettors. James Shields is a disaster area, notching only two victories in 14 previous starts this season. The White Sox are just 3-8 in his last 11 trips to the hill and current Twins have an .858 OPS against him; not a hurler who is missing many bats at this stage of his career. Behind Shields, the ChiSox bullpen is a shell of what it was before the trading deadline, leaving the door open for some late inning shenanigans, should we need them. Take the Twins on the Run Line. |
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08-20-17 | Saints v. Chargers -3 | 13-7 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 4 m | Show | |
Take the Los Angeles Chargers (#430) To say that the Saints don’t care about winning in August is something of an understatement. Sean Payton’s last preseason win in New Orleans came in Week 3 of the 2014 season, 0-10 SU and ATS in August since that victory. Each of the last seven losses has come by six points or more – it’s not like New Orleans has been falling just short. The Saints didn’t do any gameplanning for San Diego, even for their joint practice sessions this week. Drew Brees: “We just kind of show up today for the first time and it’s like, OK, here’s their personnel and here’s the looks that we are getting. This is the stuff they have been working on in training camp that nobody has really seen yet.” And reports out of those practice sessions had New Orleans struggling in every aspect of the game. They had penalties, turnovers, pass protection issues and poor QB play throughout. Drew Brees was outplayed by Philip Rivers, which is no surprise – Rivers and the Chargers first string offense marched the ball down the field and into the end zone in their lone drive against the Seahawks first string defense last week. While the Saints don’t care, the Chargers do! Last week’s 31 point home loss was a downright embarrassment for a team with a first year, first time head coach, relocating to a new stadium in a new city without much of a fan base. Backup QB’s Kellen Clemons and Cardale Jones are both having solid camps, but that duo combined to go 6-19 with two interceptions against the Seahawks reserves last week. The Saints defensive backups are a long, long way from the Seahawks defensive backups. Let’s bet ON the team that actually wants to win! Take the Chargers. |
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08-19-17 | Panthers +3.5 v. Titans | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#409) The Titans have no business as favorites of more than a field goal in this ballgame, even without Cam Newton in the lineup for Carolina today. They’re not gameplanning in any real way against the Panthers. Head coach Mike Mularkey, when asked about gameplanning this week after doing none against the Jets: “A little bit more because it's a different front. You've got to have a plan for their defensive scheme. Not like we're going to game-plan like when we get going, no.” The Titans are not built to put up points in bunches once their starters leave the game. Their offensive line depth is clearly limited, as backup QB’s Alex Tanney and Tyler Ferguson combined to take seven sacks against the Jets last week. Matt Cassell is expected to get some playing time today, but I’m not expecting an A level effort from Cassell in his first game appearance since offseason thumb surgery on his throwing hand. Ron Rivera was not amused after the joint practice session with the Titans on Thursday. An offense that had been wowing observers in training camp flat out stunk. Rivera, upping the intensity for his squad: “Today there were some things that were terrible that we looked at and are most certainly going to work on and get corrected,” he said bluntly. “Because we can’t have this. We expect to win football games. We can’t do the things we did today.” And, as we saw very clearly last week in their win over the Texans, Carolina has a ‘bet-on’ QB rotation for August, even without Newton. Once starter Derek Anderson sits, the Joe Webb/Garrett Gilbert combo has proven very effective in August. The Panthers beat the Titans by double digits in their Week 2 preseason matchup last year and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they win this game in SU fashion by a comfortable margin either. Let’s not forget that Carolina hasn’t lost a preseason game by more than a field goal in a non-Week 3 game (regular season walkthroughs) since 2013! Take the Panthers. |
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08-17-17 | Bucs v. Jaguars | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#405) Three key factors are in play for this game. First and foremost, the Bucs want to get extended playing time from their starters in this ballgame. I’ve heard no similar sentiments expressed from the Jacksonville side. Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter: “We’ll play more, the ones will be closer to a full half. We went a little bit longer with the offense last game, the defense didn’t play much. We’ll take those guys (deeper into the game). I’d like Jameis (Winston), if we have the ball, to get into a two minute situation at the end of the second quarter.” Secondly, the Jags are not comfortable running their new offense just yet. Blake Bortles has struggled in training camp and was a non-factor last week, completing only three passes for 16 yards. Bortles: “It still is our first camp in the system with Coach Nate Hackett and I think guys have done a good job – definitely still a lot to improve on. We’ve shown day-in and day-out how good we can be and then we’ve shown day-in and day-out how stupid some of the stuff we do is.” Jacksonville scored TD’s on a 97-yard pass a 79-yard run and 42-yard pass against the Pats; the type of big play TD’s that don’t come every week. Third, the Bucs are likely to have a significant QB edge after halftime, when pointspread results are most likely to be determined. Third string QB Ryan Griffin is hurt. ‘Never has been & never will be’ undrafted rookie free agent QB Sefo Liufau got second half playing time last week. That means we can expect a heavy dose of Ryan Fitzpatrick against the Bucs backup defenders. Fitzpatrick struggled against the Pats last week, primed for a better effort here; the type of veteran QB we want our money ON in August. Meanwhile, I’m not sold on Jags rookie sixth round pick Brandon Allen lighting up the Tampa defense. Take the Bucs |
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08-12-17 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#276) To say that Dallas head coach Jason Garrett doesn’t care about winning games in the NFL Preseason is something of an understatement. The Cowboys won one preseason game in four tries last year. They went 0-4 SU and ATS in their four preseason games in 2015. They went 0-4 SU in 2014, covering one spread as a six point underdog. In 2013, the Cowboys won the Hall of Fame Game – just like they did last week, then proceeded to lose SU as favorites in Week 1, winning only once in their four ‘regular’ preseason games. Laying points with Dallas in August, regardless of the opposing team’s circumstances, has been a consistent money losing proposition. So what’s different in 2017? NOTHING! Dak Prescott is likely to get a series or two’s worth of action tonight, but he’ll be playing behind a banged up offensive line that is missing three starters from last year’s elite unit. Kellen Moore played the whole first half last week. That means we’re likely to see plenty of undrafted rookie free agent Cooper Rush out of Central Michigan and recently signed Luke McCown, who is less than two weeks into learning the playbook. I do NOT expect this Cowboys offense to march up and down the field. Rams starter Jared Goff has a lot to prove after a dismal rookie season. LA’s backup QB Sean Mannion is a proven preseason performer, ‘bet-on’ all the way in August. Third stringer Dan Orlovsky is a 12 year veteran with a full offseason to learn the playbook; a capable signal caller for the latter stages. The Rams have a first year, first time head coach in his home debut – a long term ‘positive expectation’ subset. And let’s not forget that the +3 captures all the true ‘key’ numbers from preseason where games are routinely decided by one or two points as teams look to avoid overtime Live dog here! Take the Rams. |
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08-11-17 | Steelers v. Giants -3.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the New York Giants (#268) The preseason hasn’t started yet, but Mike Tomlin is ready for it to be over already. Tomlin couldn’t care less about winning games in August, with his Steelers squad now 4-13 SU over the past four years in preseason action. They have failed to cover the spread in all 13 of those SU losses, including an 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS mark in Week 1 action. All three of Pittsburgh’s preseason losses last year came by double digit margins, as were three of their four preseason losses in 2015 and two out of three preseason losses in ’14 and ’13. We’re talking consistently non-competitive efforts here, not weird circumstances. . Pitts Their only win came in the Week 3 ‘regular season walkthrough’ game. And from all indications, the Steelers are primed for a no-show again on Saturday against the G-men. It’s starts at the QB position where #1 Ben Roethlisberger and #2 Landry Jones won’t play. 3rd stringer Josh Dobbs is expected to start, followed by ‘never has been, never will be’ fourth stringer Bart Houston. Don’t expect the Steelers offense to be marching up and down the field on Saturday Night. Pittsburgh has significant issues on the defensive side of the football as well. They’re extremely thin at cornerback – one area where no NFL team can afford key injuries. The Steelers have already suffered several losses, with the likes of Artie Burns, Cam Sutton and Senquez Golson all sitting. Cory Sensabaugh was working with the first stringers in practice this week – not a good sign – and the likes of rookie Brian Allen and undrafted free agent Mike Hilton are likely to get extended playing time here. The Giants offense didn’t work well last August, and those struggles carried forward into the regular season. Expect this year to be different, with coach Bob McAdoo emphasizing a physical running game for their preseason opener. “Coming out running the football is important to us and it starts with the first time we hit the field together in a team environment….. I think the offensive line is developing confidence in each other, they are coming off the ball. There have been some shots of the offense knocking a hole in the defense [in practice] and that’s encouraging.” Giants starting center Weston Richburg, talking about the gameplan and the continuity up front for the G-men, with all five starters back on the offensive line. “We want to set the tone so we can open up other things. We have lots of weapons that we want to be able to use, and if we get the running game going, that opens that up to be a little dangerous.” The Giants also have an open competition for the #2 QB job, a good thing for a game where Eli Manning won’t see the field. New York has a pair of veteran mobile backups in Geno Smith and Josh Johnson playing with purpose; a strong bet-on’ scenario for August. And while rookie Davis Webb is likely to get some second half playing time – not an optimal scenario for the favorite – I expect the Giants to be fully in control of this game by the time he sees the field. One of these two teams cares about how they play on Friday Night, the other one doesn’t! Big Ticket: Take the Giants |
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08-10-17 | Broncos v. Bears | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#261) What do we look for in August? Well, we want to be betting ON teams with a QB battle. We want to be betting ON first year, first time coaches who actually seem to care about winning preseason games. We want to be betting AGAINST veteran coaches who legitimately don’t care one iota about winning or losing in August. And we want to be betting AGAINST rookie QB’s who are making their first appearance against an NFL defense. All four of those situations are in play tonight as the Broncos travel to Chicago to take on the Bears. Here are the key quotes from first year, first time Broncos head coach Vance Joseph, talking about the QB competition between Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch: “It’s an open competition. The games matter. The games start Thursday. I want to start the games so I can get to the bottom of this. It’s going to be more than most starting quarterbacks would play the first couple of weeks.” Here’s Joseph talking about giving his offensive starters extended playing time for Week 1: “It’s going to be a mix of both. Obviously when the first (string QB) leaves, we’re going to keep some ‘ones’ in just to keep the offense intact so the (second string) guy can play his best.” John Fox doesn’t care about wins in August! The Bears opened preseason 0-3 last year. His starting QB Mike Glennon has been struggling in camp, unable to generate any chemistry with his receiving corps. I don’t trust #2 Mark Sanchez, even in a preseason game. And we can expect plenty of rookie Mitch Trubisky tonight, making his debut against a ‘real ‘ Broncos defense, stop unit that shut out Chicago in a 22-0 win over the Bears in Week 1 of the preseason last year. Throw in an overhauled Bears secondary, primed to get lit up, and a similar final score this year would be no surprise for this bettor! Take the Broncos. |
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08-10-17 | Indians -1.5 v. Rays | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland on the Run Line (#911) To call Tampa Bay ‘ice cold’ offensively right now would be something of an understatement. The Rays have scored four runs in their last five games COMBINED on their current homestand, shut out three times during that span. Manager Kevin Cash stated the obvious following their blowout loss to the Red Sox yesterday: “At the end of the day, if we aren't going to put runs up, it's going to be tough to win." Don’t expect the Rays lineup to come alive today against Danny Salazar and the rested Indians bullpen behind him (only two innings needed from the bullpen over the past three days). Salazar has owned this lineup, allowing current Rays to hit just .141 against him in their careers. In three starts since the All Star Break, Salazar has thrown three gems, allowing just eight hits and three runs in 20 innings of work. Expect another strong showing here! Salazar’s recent excellence stands in sharp contrast to Rays starter Blake Snell’s struggles. Snell has been such a disappointment this season – still winless after 14 starts – that he was demoted down to AA last week. But with injuries continuing to plague the Rays staff (Alex Cobb going on the DL), Snell got called back up without throwing a pitch in the minors; unable to work on (or work out) his significant command issues. That’s no confidence boost against a team that beat him 6-0 the only previous time that he faced the Tribe. Given the Rays offensive struggles and the Indians bullpen excellence (and rest), I’ve bet this one on the Run Line, offering a nice ‘plus price’ return. Expect a comfortable victory for the road favorite! Take the Indians on the Run Line. |
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07-30-17 | Mets v. Mariners -1.5 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#980) on the Run Line The Mariners haven’t pulled the plug on their season, still very much in the thick of the AL Wild Card race. They’ve been buyers, picking up David Phelps and Erasmo Ramirez to sure up their pitching staff. And they’ve got their underrated ace on the mound today, a bet-on hurler in every sense of the word. The top three pitchers in FIP this season are Chris Sale, Alex Wood and Corey Kluber, a trio of high priced, well publicized aces. #4 on that list is James Paxton. And in July, Paxton has been the best of the bunch: 5-0 with a 1.62 ERA, allowing only 19 hits and six runs while striking out 38 batters in 33.1 innings of work. In his last two starter, Paxton went seven full innings against the potent Astros and Red Sox lineups, allowing just a single run in the process. It’s surely worth noting that in the 11 times Seattle has won with Paxton on the hill this year, they’re 11-0 on the Run Line, winning every one of those games by multi-run margins. His quote after shutting down the Astros: "I just felt really good.I was throwing the curveball for strikes, moving the fastball around, mixing in some cutters, too, a few changeups. Everything was just feeling really good and Z (catcher Mike Zunino) did a great job of calling the game back there." Unlike Seattle, the Mets have been sellers at the trade deadline, trading away veteran leaders like Lucas Duda in recent days. And trade rumors are swirling around the locker room with Jay Bruce, Addison Reed, Curtis Granderson and Asdrubal Cabrera among many on the block. After a good start to this road trip, the Mets have now lost three of their last four, not a ‘bet-on’ team out West right now. And with starter Seth Lugo boasting an ERA more than a run and a half higher on the highway than he has at home, I’m quite comfortable laying the run and a half with the Mariners this afternoon. Take the Mariners on the Run Line. |
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07-28-17 | Indians -1.5 v. White Sox | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#975) on the Run Line The White Sox have been playing non-competitive baseball for weeks, a team worth betting against at every reasonable opportunity. Chicago isn’t hitting, producing 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 2, 6, 1 and 0 runs in their last nine games. The White Sox aren’t winning either; in the midst of an ugly, season defining 2-15 skid. They’re worth betting against again tonight. White Sox starter Mike Pelfrey lasted only five innings against the Cubs last night. James Shields lasted only four innings for the ChiSox on Wednesday. Carlos Rodon lasted only four innings on Tuesday. And make no mistake about it -- the White Sox bullpen has been struggling mightily since trading away David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle to the Yankees and Anthony Swarzak to Minnesota. Another key veteran bullpen arm, Dan Jennings, just got traded to Tampa Bay yesterday, leaving that overworked bullpen completely depleted heading into tonight’s game. And that’s bad news with Derek Holland on the mound tonight. Holland is yet another aging veteran just biding his time on a last place team, hanging on by a thread as a big league pitcher. Holland didn’t finish the sixth inning in any of his four previous July starts, with an 8.69 ERA this month. That comes on the heels of his 9.55 ERA in five June starts. Facing a red hot Indians team – seven straight wins, while averaging more than seven runs per game during that span – is not what Derek Holland or the bullpen behind him need right now. Indians starter Danny Salazar came off the DL by throwing seven innings of one hit shutout ball against the Blue Jays; a ‘bet-on’ hurler all the way right now. And unlike the White Sox bullpen, the Indians bullpen is an elite unit, capable of holding a multi-run lead so we can cash our Run Line tickets without a late inning sweat. Take the Indians on the Run Line. |
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