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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Michigan (#266) Michigan closed out the regular season with back-2-back losses against Wisconsin and Ohio State. They were blown out at Penn State and managed only ten points in a home loss to Michigan State. In short, the four best teams that Michigan faced all beat them. Make no mistake about it — South Carolina is not one of the best teams that Michigan has faced this season. And the Wolverines are primed to look very different on the offensive side of the football, where they’ve struggled all year — when the Outback Bowl kicks off on New Year’s Day. Let me start with the Gamecocks offense. Their returning QB Jake Bentley suffered declines in every category in his second year as the starter — yards per pass down, turnovers up, passer rating down. The issue wasn’t just Bentley — South Carolina’s leading receiver didn’t even average 12 yards per catch and their leading rusher gained only 517 yards on the ground. Plain and simple — the Gamecocks offense lacks playmakers. That’s why they were completely shut down against Georgia and Clemson, held to 10 points and less than 275 yards in each of those two contests. Michigan’s defense can be mentioned in the same breath as Clemson’s or Georgia’s stop unit. The Wolverines finished the regular season ranked #3 in college football in Total Defense, Pass Efficiency Defense and Third Down Defense, an impressive trifecta. Expect Gamecocks points to be few and far between in this one. The Wolverines biggest issue all year has been their offense, most notably their quarterback play. Wilson Speight was nothing more than a game manager before he got hurt. John O’Korn had serious accuracy problems, throwing three times as many interceptions as touchdowns. The only QB that showed any promise was the frosh, Brandon Peters, but he suffered a concussion and didn’t play in the second half at Wisconsin or in the finale against Ohio State. Peters is healthy now, and he’s got ‘bet-on’ quotes everywhere around him from that Michigan locker room. O’Korn: "From the first time that he went in, he’s just grown up so much. He’s really taking control of the offense, taking control of the locker room, and it’s been really cool to see." Michigan co-captain, left tackle Mason Cole:"He has a lot of confidence, the kid's got a little swagger to him. He runs around like he owns the place. And that's what you want." Jim Harbaugh is a good bully, not shy about running up scores when he has the chance. Given the Wolverines late season struggles, I’m expecting Harbaugh to keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish on New Year’s Day. South Carolina’s last win against a foe with a winning record came back in September and the SEC East is primed for some more ugly bowl results. Big Ticket: Take Michigan. |
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12-31-17 | Washington State +14 v. USC | 71-89 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Washington State (#859) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) USC isn’t short on talent. Right now, however, they are very short on team chemistry and defensive effort. From a local source: “They rely on one guy to go off,” said an assistant coach who scouted USC this year. “And the other guys just watch.” The Trojans have allowed opponents to shoot 49.5% from the floor against them in their last five games, 39% from three point range. They’re not forcing turnovers either; bad news against a Washington State squad that relies heavily on three point shooting. The Cougars have been excellent underdogs all year, cashing at an 80% clip when catching seven points or more, an emerging trend worth riding on New Year’s Eve. Take Washington St. |
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12-31-17 | Georgia +9 v. Kentucky | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#849) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including a SU win at Marquette and a neutral site victory over St Mary’s already this season. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Bulldogs at Marquette: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M.” Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide have the size to bang with Kentucky in the paint. And make no mistake about it – even after a blowout against Louisville, Kentucky’s offensive execution is still rather limited, bad news against Georgia’s feisty defense. On New Year’s Eve, I expect to be cashing another winning be on the underrated Bulldogs! Take Georgia. |
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12-31-17 | UL-Lafayette -4.5 v. Arkansas State | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana Lafayette (#843) (Abbreviated write-ups on a busy NFL Sunday/New Year’s Eve) There’s a class difference between these two squads that is not reflected in this short pointspread. Louisiana is a ‘class’ team in the Sun Belt. They enjoyed a trip to Cuba in August , a strong chemistry builder that has carried over to the regular season. Bob Marlin’s deep, veteran squad has proven their mettle in hostile road environments from Day 1 this season, including SU wins and covers on the highway against Little Rock, Louisiana Tech, and Nicholls State, along with neutral site wins and covers against Richmond and Iowa. I want my money ON the Rajun Cajuns as they step down in class away from hom. Arkansas State has attracted some betting market support in Mike Balado’s first year on the job with a handful of recent wins and covers against a handful of distracted foes during the holiday season. They are not, however, playing a lick of defense, a clear problem against a focused, superior foe on Sunday. Expect the Cajuns to dominate the low post, get easy looks and hit their free throws in a game that should NOT come down to the wire. Take Louisiana. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Jacksonville (#311) Let me start with this basic premise, a premise that has been thoroughly validated by the first 16 weeks of the NFL season: At full strength, the Jaguars are a better team than the Titans. And while Tennessee beat Jacksonville by three touchdowns back in Week 2, the Jags team they faced then is a very different team at this stage of the campaign. That makes this quote from Doug Marrone stand out: “Make no mistake about it so there’s not a lot of talk about it during the week: We’re going to play to win and we’re going to do everything possible to win this game, period. I’m not even thinking about what happens beyond that. That’s the way we’re going to go about our business this week.” The Jags were no-shows in San Fran last Sunday, a rarity for a team that has stepped up rather well this season. It’s surely worth noting that they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS off their four previous losses this season, winning each and every one of those games by 20 points or more and covering every spread by a double digit margin. Two of those four wins came as underdogs, a third came as a short favorite. Now that, folks, is a track record worthy of support! Tennessee is anything BUT a confident team at this stage of the campaign. They’ve lost three straight ‘must win’ games, including a home game against the Rams last week, falling apart with the outcome very much in doubt when it mattered most — the fourth quarter. Incredibly, the Titans last win and cover against a competitive foe (not counting the bottom feeders) came back in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Mike Mularkey certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor in a ‘must win’ game as chalk against a focused foe that is the superior squad. Big Ticket: Take the Jaguars. |
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12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#307). This is what matters here. The Panthers will go into this game live for the NFC South title and a #2 seed. If they lose, they could fall as low as #5 and be on the road next week, instead of enjoying a bye. Even if the Saints get off to a big lead at Tampa, expect Ron Rivera to keep his starters in the game, because a win would mean a home game next week while a loss could send them on the road. Carolina gets back a pair of key defenders from suspension here, LB Thomas Davis and DE Charles Johnson. For a team that is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, the return of those two defenders adds a bit of swagger to this stop unit, especially considering that both guys are Georgia graduates, heading home. This defense has forced 17 turnovers during that eight game span, and they’re coming off a seven sack effort against Tampa Bay last week. But more than any other factor, this is a bet AGAINST the Falcons in a ‘must win’ game. Atlanta has a grand total of three wins by more than a field goal since September. They beat the 5-10 Jets by five points. They beat Dallas when the Cowboys were completely falling apart in the first game of Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension. And they beat the 4-11 Bucs in a ‘Ryan Fitzpatrick’ game for Tampa. That’s not exactly a track record of beating good teams by margin! Steve Sarkisian is no Kyle Shanahan when it comes to designing an offense or calling plays. Atlanta’s scoring output is a shell of what it was under Shanahan — they’ve scored just 9, 20, 24 and 13 points in their last four games, down nearly two TD’s per game compared to last year. Must win or not, the Falcons are laying more than a field goal to a team that’s better than them, a clear ‘bet-against’ situation for this false favorite. Take the Panthers. |
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12-31-17 | Texans v. Colts -3.5 | 13-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Indianapolis (#316). The premise here is simple. You can stick a fork in the Houston Texans because they are done. They’ve lost each of their last five games by a touchdown or more, the last four defeats all coming by double digit margins. Each of the last two losses has been completely non-competitive: 45-7 to Jacksonville and 34-6 to Pittsburgh. I recognize that Indy isn’t Jacksonville or Pittsburgh. I also recognize when a team has thrown in the towel….. Houston has simply had too many injuries. Deshaun Watson was a spark, but he suffered a season ender. So did JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus and D’Onta Foreman and CJ Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. WR Will Fuller has a cracked rib and hasn’t had more than 50 receiving yards in a game since October. DeAndre Hopkins — the team’s only legit threat — hasn’t practiced all week and is likely to miss the first game of his five year NFL career on Sunday. A meaningless season finale on the highway is most assuredly not a ‘step-up’ spot for this sorry squad at the tail end of a dismal campaign. We saw last week what a popular coach can do for team morale in what is likely to be his last home game when the ‘dead’ Bengals came up strong and knocked the Lions out of playoff contention. Reading between the lines of the quotes coming out of Indy this week, I’m expecting a ‘step-up’ effort for Chuck Pagano in Week 17. Unlike the Texans, the Colts have shown plenty of fight down the stretch in competitive losses like the one they suffered last week at Baltimore. Pagano: "Last rodeo. It's our last ride together. ... What better way than to go out with a win?” I expect Indy to get that victory in relatively easy fashion, a game that has legitimate blowout potential despite the Colts season long struggles. Take the Colts. |
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12-30-17 | Heat -1.5 v. Magic | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#503) The Heat didn’t lose at home to the Nets last night. They were thoroughly humiliated at home, trailing by as many as 38 points to a team that entered the game with a 12-22 record. Head coach Eric Spoelstra was not amused following the defeat: "I'm speechless about it. I don't know. We will keep on fighting and digging until we figure it out. I can guarantee you that. ... We have a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde quality to us that's extremely perplexing. Sometimes we compete at an extremely high level. You can see it, you can feel it. And then we have these games that are unexplainable." Spoelstra continued: "I wish we could get out there right now. I think the guys in the locker room feel that way. Our approach tomorrow has to feel different. It has to be different, starting with a film session and team meeting to prepare." If Miami was Dr Jekyll last night, we can expect Mr. Hyde this evening against a team that the Heat just beat by 18 points on the day after Christmas. Miami has been excellent at bouncing back off a shoddy showing, 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four tries off a loss, including outright upsets as underdogs at Charlotte and Boston. Orlando got key starters Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier back from injury in their last game, snapping a nine game skid with an upset win over the Detroit Pistons. Since winning five out of six over the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have been unable to string victories together at all: 0-4 SU and ATS following a win, with all four losses coming by double digit margins. ‘Fat & happy’ vs. ‘focused & hungry’ here! Take the Heat. |
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12-30-17 | Louisiana Tech +2 v. Marshall | 65-78 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Louisiana Tech (#595) For further reading, check out this link from a local source: https://www.wvgazettemail.com/sports/marshall_university/stakes-raised-as-louisiana-tech-visits-marshall/article_1c3dcfaf-8f9f-5eb3-b5b1-fc6389a2e227.html Expect Louisiana Tech to be as focused as it gets in Huntington this afternoon. The Bulldogs are in revenge mode against the Thundering Herd after Marshall ended their NCAA Tournament dreams last March with an upset win in the C-USA semifinals. La Tech was the #2 seed and had been 6-0 all time against Marshall, but the Bulldogs fell victim to a red hot night from three point range, as Marshall nailed 19 shots from beyond the arc in that ballgame. Don’t expect another 19 makes from three point land in the rematch – the veteran Bulldogs have held foes to just six makes per game from beyond the arc this year, stifling D on the perimeter. Meanwhile, Marshall is a good notch or two overvalued right now, feasting on the weak. And the Thundering Herd are really banged up – click the above link for details of how their limited depth is likely to be tested here. Wrong team favored! Take La Tech! |
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12-30-17 | New Mexico v. Nevada -13.5 | 74-77 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Nevada (#588) For further reading, check out these links from local sources: http://www.santafenewmexican.com/sports/now-it-gets-tough-lobos-set-sights-on-nevada/article_a7c6e399-ac3e-5fa4-bb90-b1f2521d28db.html https://www.abqjournal.com/1112776/mens-basketball-lobos-hope-for-strength-in-reserve.html http://www.rgj.com/story/sports/college/nevada/2017/12/29/kendall-stephens-midst-one-nevadas-best-shooting-stretches-ever/991608001/ You wanna talk about an underrated home court? How about the Lawlor Center in Reno, where the Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS this year, 30-10 ATS in their last 40! New Mexico is playing uptempo, looking to push the pace and force turnovers. That strategy is going to lead to some big blowouts against inferior squads, like what the Lobos have done in their last three games, all at home against weaklings. But when the Lobos are stepping up in class, playing this style on the road against quality foes, they’re primed for a beatdown. We’ve seen it happen more than once already this year in ugly losses to Arizona, Colorado, Maryland – even UTEP and New Mexico State. And the Lobos are clearly going to have a problem in the paint against the Wolfpack. First year head coach Paul Weir: “One thing I know off the bat that we’re going to have to find a way to do better is rebound the basketball. They’re just physical. They’re athletic. They’re going to be a problem on the glass.” Nevada is really good, a bet-on team all the way right now, the class of the Mountain West Conference this year, and a consistently undervalued commodity in the betting marketplace. Expect their conference home opener to be a one-sided affair, a beatdown just waiting for the opening tip. Take Nevada. |
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12-29-17 | Utah v. Oregon -10 | 66-56 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Oregon (#850) For additional reading check out these two local sources: http://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2017/12/28/utes-will-be-short-handed-as-they-open-pac-12-mens-basketball-play-in-the-northwest/ http://registerguard.com/rg/sports/basketball/36288224-61/oregon-ducks-basketball-not-improving-as-quickly-as-dana-altman-hoped-heading-into-pac-12-play.html.csp# To say that Dana Altman has owned Larry Krystkowiak is something of an understatement. Oregon swept two meetings against Utah last year, both SU and ATS. They won and covered all three games against the Utes in 2016 and won and covered both meetings in 2015; a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS vs. Utah over the past three seasons. And there’s little reason to expect a different result tonight! Utah is really banged up right now. Leading scorer, senior David Collette is hurt. Leading three point shooter, senior Gabe Bealer, is hurt as well. Neither guy will be at 100% if they suit up at all. Frosh forward Donnie Tillman has been their best scorer off the bench. He’s out for sure, along with Chris Seeley. Utah has lost both previous road games (BYU and Butler) by double digit margins. Coach Krystkowiak: “Sometimes I think if you have a group of guys that you’ve been fortunate enough to coach for two or three years, there can be a little bit more gray area and you rely on your players to make plays and not have turnovers and kind of understand each other. I still think there’s enough newness with the roster that we have right now [that] within that gray area we were finding some mistakes.” Oregon is young, the type of team we can expect to improve gradually as the season progresses. But they’re good enough to support right now; playing elite level defense, hitting their free throws and capable of winning their PAC-12 home opener by a double digit margin tonight. Quack Quack! Take the Ducks. |
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12-29-17 | Nets v. Heat -6.5 | 111-87 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#812) When Joel Embiid sits in Philly, the markets react accordingly – he’s an impact player on both ends of the court. But for whatever reason, the betting markets aren’t as excited by Hassan Whiteside’s ‘in or out’ status for Miami, despite the fact that Whiteside is every bit the impact player that Embiid is! Whiteside missed 12 games before returning to face Orlando earlier in the week. Lo and behold, the Heat won by 18, their biggest margin of victory at home all year. Yet the markets have yawned on his presence. Underrated point guard Goran Dragic is a similar story, now back in the lineup after missing three games last week. Rested and ready – only one game since the 23rd – I’m expecting Whiteside and Dragic to be impact players tonight for a Miami team showing signs of success in the favorite’s role. The Nets aren’t playing with a full roster either – their top two point guards are out long term, Jahlil Okafor won’t suit up until January and sharpshooter Caris LeVert is banged up, very questionable to play this evening. What’s left is a hodgepodge of mismatched role players who aren’t particularly involved on the defensive end of the court. That’s why the Nets are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight ballgames despite hot shooting from the perimeter. They’ve averaged 15 makes per game while shooting 40% from beyond the arc in their last five contests, yet they’ve still only won once and covered twice during that span. Playing their third game in four nights, look for the Nets to be hard pressed to match Miami’s energy level or execution here. Expect a comfortable win for the home favorite. Take the Heat. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Washington State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 198 h 40 m | Show | |
Take Michigan State (#277) This is not a good fundamental matchup for the Washington State Cougars. And considering how high the Cougars hopes were heading into their Apple Cup showdown against Washington, a bad fundamental matchup is now also a potential motivational issue for the favorite in this ballgame…although I’m not convinced that the Cougars will still be favored by the time kickoff rolls around. The loss to Washington hangs as a backdrop here. The Cougars were on pace for a truly special season, pinning all their hopes on knocking off the Huskies in their season finale. But that game was as ugly as it gets, right from the opening kickoff as Wassou was non-competitive in defeat, because this offense didn’t/doesn’t work against a top notch stop unit. QB Luke Falk’s senior season can only be described as ‘disappointing’, with the lowest yards per pass attempt, lowest passer rating and most interceptions of his four years as the starter! And Falk was at his worst in late season games away from home against Washington, Cal and Arizona, all ugly blowout losses for Mike Leach’s squad. With Leach flirting with the Tennessee job before signing an extension, it’s not even clear that his focus is on the task at hand either. And we cannot forget how poorly this offense has looked following time off for recent bowls – the Cougs were held to 32 points against Minnesota and Miami combined in 2015 and 2016. Mark Dantonio, in sharp contrast, has consistently seen his teams overachieve during bowl season. Sparty missed a bowl last year – this is one motivated team for the Holiday Bowl – but they had gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their four previous bowls before running into Alabama in 2015. The Spartans were outclassed in that game, just like they were outclassed in their ugly blowout at Ohio State. Make no mistake about it. Washington State is not Ohio State or Alabama, not even close. When Dantonio’s teams aren’t outclassed, they’re ‘bet-on’ all the way. The Spartans finished the season ranked #13 in pass efficiency defense, and they played more true freshmen (13) than seniors (12) this season – these extra bowl practices really matter for Sparty. And considering the fact that this defense held FIVE different Big 10 opponents to 10 points or less, I’m expecting them to control the flow here as well. Take Michigan State. |
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 198 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#245) I keep hearing mainstream media reports talking about what a genius Gary Patterson is at TCU. There’s only one problem with that theory – facts! Patterson has had three winning seasons in the Big 12 in six years since joining the league. His track record with extra time to prepare for bowl games isn’t very good, including an 0-5 ATS Run in bowls prior to his lone recent bowl blowout, a 42-3 wipeout over an Ole Miss squad that didn’t show up. What about Patterson in big games, with titles on the line? Well, we saw TCU get bombed twice by Oklahoma this year, coming up waaaaaay short in their two biggest tests of the season. We saw TCU get beaten at Iowa State as well – a ‘Kenny Hill’ game. The Horned Frogs senior QB put together a solid statistical season, completing 67% of his passes with a 23-8 TD-INT ratio. But Hill did NOT step up in class well and all of his bad games came on the highway, to the tune of a 178 passer rating at home compared to 124 away from home. Plain and simple – I do NOT trust Kenny Hill against a Stanford defense of this caliber! David Shaw gets about one tenth of the love that Gary Patterson gets, despite the fact that he’s a better coach. How do we know? This stat stands out to me: Stanford is 12-3 ATS as an underdog in the Shaw era, consistently stepping up with strong performances against the toughest competition that they face. That includes SU wins as an underdog this year against Washington and Notre Dame, as well as a cover in the PAC-12 title game in a three point loss to USC. TCU has a 3-3-5 defense built to stop the bevy of spread offenses in the Big 12. Stanford has a power rushing attack with a big time playmaker at RB in Bryce Love; a speedster who can turn one missed tackle into a quick strike, momentum changing touchdown. And frankly, I’ve been impressed with the Cardinal QB KJ Costello, who through six TD’s without an INT against Notre Dame and USC in the final two games of the regular season. Wrong team favored here! Take Stanford. |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas +3 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 174 h 36 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas (#240) We’ve got a flat out ‘bet-on’ Texas squad taking on a flat out ‘bet-against’ team from Missouri. Best of all, the Tigers are the favorite and they’re taking $$, offering us the opportunity to back the superior team with the superior coach and the vastly superior talent level at an underdog price. That, folks, is the very definition of what I’m looking for when I step up with a Big Ticket sized wager. Missouri opened this season 1-5, the lone win coming against FCS competition. Four of the losses came by 18 points or more, the defense allowed well over 40 points per game during that span and Barry Odom’s short tenure with the Tigers was on very shaky ground. Missouri closed the season by going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS, averaging more than 51 points per game. Odom’s job is now safe, everyone’s happy in Columbia, and the Tigers are going bowling for the first time since 2014. The mainstream narrative is that Missouri ‘figured it out’ and that Drew Lock is a legit talent at QB moving forward. That narrative makes perfect sense….until it completely falls apart when we take a closer look. Missouri’s 6-0 winning streak went like this: They beat Idaho (Idaho stinks, finishing 4-8 in the Sun Belt Conference). They beat UConn (UConn stinks, finishing 3-9 in the AAC). They beat 4-7 Florida. Jim McElwain had just been fired. They beat 4-8 Tennessee. Butch Jones was about to get fired. They beat 5-7 Vandy. Derek Mason almost got fired, but they didn’t want to buy him out yet. They beat 4-8 Arkansas. Brett Bielema got fired right after the game. That’s a grand total of zero wins against any decent team all year. Everything Missouri accomplished came against a bottom feeder foe that couldn’t compete or was falling apart – EVERYTHING. This team isn’t just overrated – they’re wildly overrated in the betting markets at this stage of the campaign. That’s not the case for Texas! My clients and I have cashed multiple winning bets this year AND last year And in 2015 and in 2014 riding this same trend, a trend that the mainstream media hasn’t seem to pick up on. That trend? Tom Herman as an underdog! The results do not lie. Dating back to his tenure as the Ohio State offensive coordinator, continuing through his tenure as the Houston Cougars head coach right into his tenure as the Longhorns head coach, Herman has done one thing remarkably well – he steps up in class. Herman’s teams are now 15-1 ATS as an underdog in their last 16 tries dating back to 2014. Even the ‘1’ deserves an asterisk – it was a one score game in the fourth quarter and the Longhorns were playing without their starting quarterback! That stretch includes wins over the likes of Florida State, Oregon and Alabama – championship contending teams. Herman’s got both QB’s healthy and ready to go here, Sam Ehlinger the ‘playmaker’ of the duo and Shane Buechele, the better downfield passer. The extra bowl practices should help this offense considerably. But the key here is the Longhorns defense. It’s not like Texas hasn’t seen multiple spread offenses this year – the kind Missouri runs. The Longhorns have already faced Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph, among others (3-0 ATS against arguably the best three QB’s in college football this year. They’re battle tested against offenses like this one, primed to win this game in SU fashion! Big Ticket: Take Texas. |
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12-27-17 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +4 | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Wyoming (#734) For additional reading, click here: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-sdsu-basketball-wyoming-laramie-20171226-story.html The quotes from the Aztecs tell the story here (click the above link for all of them), with three frosh and five other Aztecs that have never set foot on the court in Laramie. Head coach Brian Dutcher knows what’s coming, after his team pulled the upset over Gonzaga at home last weekend: “I tried to set them up going into Gonzaga that our next two games are going to be brutally tough. I tried to lump Gonzaga and Wyoming together. I didn’t want them solely focusing on Gonzaga in our practices for 12 days. I’ve tried to tell them how hard it’s going to be at Wyoming.” So what did Dutcher do? He went with his heart, not with his head, letting the Aztecs players go home for Christmas. They’re dealing with winter storm warnings on the flight to Laramie, and they’ll be facing an undervalued, veteran foe with three seniors and a junior starting. The Cowboys won the CBI title last March on the heels of a 23 win season, no pushovers. Off a no-show game over the holidays vs Northern Colorado, expect the Cowboys to bounce back strong tonight! Take Wyoming. |
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12-26-17 | Utah -6.5 v. West Virginia | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 142 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#229) It’s not hard to make a case for betting on Kyle Whittingham’s team in a bowl game. The Utes have thrived in the postseason throughout Whittingham’s tenure: 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS, including wins over Colorado State, BYU and Indiana over the last three postseasons. The Utes will have dynamic starting QB Tyler Huntley rested and ready for this one after he missed the season finale due to injury. Huntley averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and was the team’s second leading rusher behind Zack Moss; a legitimate dual threat QB primed to give the Mountaineer defense all kinds of problems. And the Utes dominance on special teams – true dominance, with the Lou Groza Award winning kicker and the #6 net punter in the country – ensures that West Virginia won’t be getting many short fields to work with. That’s bad news for Dana Holgorsen’s squad, because they’ll be playing without their star senior QB Will Grier, leaving backup Chris Chugunov as their starter for the bowl game. Grier averaged 9.0 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 162.7. Chugunov averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 120 – there’s a MAJOR drop-off from the starter to the backup. And THAT’s bad news for West Virginia because this defense isn’t primed to get many stops. The Mountaineers returned only three starters on that side of the football and it showed all year; ranked #92 in scoring defense, #104 in rush defense and #101 in pass efficiency defense. West Virginia got lit up 59-31 against Oklahoma in their season finale, one week after losing to Texas by two touchdowns as home favorites. No surprise here if that negative momentum carries forward to this bowl game……Take Utah. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -9 | 10-19 | Push | 0 | 83 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#132) We’ve got a clear ‘bet-on’ team vs. an equally clear ‘bet-against’ squad on Monday Night Football this week. Philly was sloppy last week against the Giants, to put it mildly, allowing a bottom tier Giants offense to gain more than 500 yards and four TD’s against them. Head coach Doug Pederson was not amused. “Can’t play like this and win in the postseason. Got to come prepared. And when I say prepared, I think from a mental standpoint, that emotion, that sense of urgency, that dominating swagger that you want to see your team come out aggressing with.” Veteran safety Malcolm Jenkins was not amused either: “I think each one of us needs to take a look a hard look at ourselves and be critical and evaluate where we can be better, whether that’s knowing the opponent better or knowing the scheme better. We’re going to need everybody to execute. It’s a race to get better right now.” How about veteran LB Nigel Bradham: “We don’t need nobody to tell us we’ve got to do better. We see it just like everybody else. One thing about us is we’ve all got chips on our shoulders. We want to get better. We’re going to challenge ourselves. We’ll get that corrected.” Given those quotes, and given the fact that a win here will clinch the #1 seed for the Eagles, I’m anticipating an elite team bringing their ‘A’ game on Christmas Night. The Raiders cannot be expected to match that level of play after their season essentially ended with Derek Carr’s goal line fumble last Sunday Night. Oakland won’t have left tackle Donald Penn, ending his streak of 170 consecutive starts for the Raiders. The defensive line will be playing without Mario Edwards Jr and Treyvon Hester. Starting receivers Michael Crabtree (concussion) and Amari Cooper (ankle) are questionable at best, neither likely to be at 100% if they suit up. We’ve seen the Raiders let go of the rope repeatedly on the highway this season, losing by 17 at Washington, by 20 at Buffalo, by 25 vs. New England in Mexico City and by 11 (they trailed 26-0 in that game) at KC. No surprise here if the energy to fight from behind is rather limited for this disappointing squad. There’s some chance that the Packers beat the Vikings on Saturday Night as nine point underdogs, clinching the #1 seed for the Eagles before kickoff. This quote from Doug Pederson leaves me confident that Philly will come to play anyway, saving the ‘resting starters’ thing for Week 17:”You’ve got to maintain that confidence and that dominating swagger and you’ve got to keep that alive.” Take the Eagles. |
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12-25-17 | Cavs +5 v. Warriors | 92-99 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#703). (Abbreviated write-up for Christmas Day) Taking the Cavs plus the points has been a remarkably consistent moneymaker so far this NBA season. The Cavs have been underdogs on five previous occasions this season. They are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in those games, the lone loss coming by only four points at Houston. Cleveland has been a terrible favorite and miserable ATS at home, but this is their role! The Warriors won’t be suiting up Steph Curry again this afternoon. They are 3-7 ATS without Curry in the lineup this season, including a SU home loss to Sacramento and a 15 point loss to the Nuggets in their last home game. They’ve also struggled ATS when stepping up in class. The Warriors haven’t been underdogs all year, but as shorter favorites (-7.5 or less), they’re a 33% ATS proposition — moneylosers! Playing their third game in four days against a rested Cavs squad, look for the Warriors to struggle to build any kind of margin today…if they win the game at all. Take the Cavs. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 55 h 41 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#124) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is still priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 5-24 SU in their last 29 games, especially when they’re matched up with a ‘Flavor of the Week’ like the Jaguars. But the Niners have won three straight since Garappolo took over behind center, rallying from behind in the fourth quarter TWICE last week to beat a winning team trying to clinch a playoff spot. And the Jags are as ‘fat and happy’ as it gets at this time of the year after clinching their first playoff appearance since 2007. Blake Bortles is not the better QB in this game the way he was last week against the Texans…. Take the 49ers. |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#110) I believe the Rams are better than the Titans, and deserve to be road favorites. But this line has gone through the roof and from all indications, Tennessee is coming to play on Sunday. All the value here – and there is legitimate value at the current pointspread – lies with the home underdog. I’m not going to write a bunch of negative things about LA here – this is a solid football team that has been winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway all season. That’s certainly factored into this pointspread! But now we’re talking about a very young West Coast team flying East for an early start game right before Christmas, coming off arguably their biggest win of the decade at Seattle last week. The final score against the Seahawks is a big reason why this pointspread is where it is – last week’s lookahead line was LA -3. And frankly, that result was as much about the Seattle no-show as anything LA did right. All 40 of LA’s offensive points came from drives that started in Seahawks territory. Jared Goff only generated 104 net passing yards on 22 dropbacks. Those are not ‘lay a TD on the road against a feisty foe’ type of stats, every bit as dicey as the spot for Sean McVay’s squad. Even after suffering tough losses to the 6-8 Cardinals and the 4-10 49ers over the last two weeks, the Titans can clinch a playoff spot with a win here, currently the #5 seed in the AFC. There’s certainly a level of hunger here. Pro Bowl DT Jurrell Casey: “To lose to two sorry teams like that back-to-back, I’m at a loss for words.” Marcus Mariota: “We left Nashville in first place in our division. It's not a very good feeling." Tennessee did find a spark last week with their no-huddle offense, rallying back from a 16-3 deficit at San Fran, then driving to kick what could have been the game winning FG with just over a minute left. This team hasn’t lost at home since opening day, notching five straight wins on this field. Too many points! Take the Titans. |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Chiefs | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#119) Here’s all you need to know about Miami’s mentality as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Head coach Adam Gase: “We’re still in this season. This thing’s not quite over yet…. We’ve got two games to make some strides here. Win this one and go from there and see what happens.” The Dolphins have won two of their last three, including an impressive victory over the defending Super Bowl champs. But last week in Buffalo they fell behind early on a short week in a flat spot, and couldn’t rally to catch up. That being said, they did turn a 24-6 deficit into a 24-16 final score, showing resolve in a spot where they easily could have let go of the rope. They also showed that despite some ugly overall stats (the Dolphins are NOT good in the yards-per-play department), this team is more than capable of making plays on both sides of the ball. I have little hesitation betting against Andy Reid as a double digit favorite. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, Reid’s Chiefs have been favored by -6.5 or more eleven times. They have twice as many SU losses in that role (four) as they do pointspread covers (two). Coming off the big divisional win against the Chargers last week, with a trip to Denver on deck, this divisional sandwich is most assuredly NOT a ‘bet-on’ spo t for this double digit favorite. Take the Dolphins. |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Central Michigan (#219) At no point this season was Wyoming a good football team. NFL prospect QB Josh Allen is expected to start (prompting a three point line move for something that was already factored into the number), but Allen, quite frankly, has been a major disappointment all year. The Cowboys have shown precious little enthusiasm for travelling to a Mountain West venue where they played already this year (a game they lost by double digits). And Central Michigan’s full season stats are lying, a team that, without a doubt, is far better now than they were in September or October. I liked the Chippewas BEFORE the big line move. After a three point swing, this game is clearly worthy of Big Ticket status. Let’s start with Josh Allen. First of all, he’s not 100% healthy, even though he’s going to start. Allen, last week: “The shoulder is getting better day by day. I’ve been getting back in the swing of things with some seven-on-seven and some plays in team sessions the last couple of days of practice.” Head coach Craig Bohl: “The arrow is pointing up as far as his progression. Is he 100 percent? I don’t know if that’s quite accurate.” Even when healthy this season, Allen hasn’t come close to living up to the hype. In 2016, he threw for 8.6 yards per pass attempt and a passer rating of 144.9. This year, it was 6.6 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 124.0; a MASSIVE drop-off. What happened? His supporting cast was non-existent! Wyoming’s offensive line couldn’t protect Allen or open holes for any semblance of a running game – no RB reached 500 yards for the Cowboys. Austin Conway was the only pass catcher to nab more than 27 catches all season, and he averaged only 9.0 yards per catch. Without any legit playmakers and with a weak OL protecting him, Allen lost his confidence this year. I’m not convinced he’s going to find it here, especially after missing so much practice time (and the final two regular season games) with his bum shoulder. And another trip to Boise has generated precious little enthusiasm, in sharp contrast to last year’s trip to the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego. Central Michigan got off to a 3-4 start, with Michigan transfer Shane Morris struggling early after earning the starting QB job for HC John Bonamego. But the senior QB found his mojo down the stretch, guiding the Chippewas to a 5-0 SU/ATS run down the stretch. That didn’t come against MAC weaklings either – Central pulled outright upsets over Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan as underdogs, winning each of those games by a TD or more. With a senior QB and a bevy of senior skill position talent around him – top WR’s Mark Chapman and Corey Willis as well as tight end Tyler Conklin are all in their final game with the program – Central Michigan has the big play ability on offense that Wyoming simply can’t match. Wrong team favored here…. Big Ticket: Take Central Michigan. |
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12-21-17 | Kansas v. Stanford +15.5 | 75-54 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Stanford (#550) For more details on this matchup, read this preview from KC.com http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/campus-corner/article190994849.html Stanford is ‘head and shoulders’ better now compared to where they were at the start of the season, or frankly, at any point last year in Jared Haase’s first season on the job. Let’s be real – Stanford was a major disappointment last year, finishing 14-17 overall, 6-12 in the PAC-12 with a veteran squad. This year started out every bit as bad – a home loss to Eastern Washington; ugly blowouts away from home to Florida and North Carolina; bad losses to Portland State and Long Beach State as favorites. The Cardinal opened 2-8 ATS. But Stanford is coming off back-2-back wins, real momentum boosters for a squad that has been thoroughly devalued in the betting markets. Their defense has been dynamite of late, holding foes to 37% from the floor in their last five games. Stanford has depth and interior size, capable of banging in the paint with the Jayhawks; while Bill Self’s squad isn’t one of his deeper teams. On a one game West Coast trip right before Christmas, look for the Jayhawks to get tested in a relatively competitive game. Take Stanford. |
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12-21-17 | Celtics -3 v. Knicks | 93-102 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Boston (#505) There’s no need to overthink this one. Boston off a loss is as ‘bet-on’ as it gets in the NBA this season. Their only set of back-2-back losses came in the first two games of the season. Since that second loss, back on October 18th, the Celtics are 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS off a defeat, winning each and every one of those games by six points or more. Coming off a dismal second half in a home loss to Miami on Wednesday, it’s a step up spot for a team that’s been really, really good at stepping up. The Knicks are expected to get Kristaps Porzingas back in the lineup tonight, ensuring that this line isn’t going to skyrocket between now and the opening tip. They’ve played fine without Porzingas of late, notching four straight wins prior to an ugly loss at Charlotte on Wednesday. But the Knicks have been living on hot three point shooting, better than 40% over their last five games. Boston’s defense on the perimeter is as good as any in the NBA, as clearly evidenced by their first meeting with the Knicks this season. That game was a 110-89 blowout that saw New York make just one three pointer for the entire contest….. Take the Celtics. |
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12-20-17 | Pacers -4 v. Hawks | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#705) The Hawks are not a team with any significant home court edge these days, just 4-10 SU on this floor. They’ll occasionally have a strong game or a strong closeout, like they did against the injury riddled Heat on Monday Night. But in recent weeks, we’ve seen the Nets win o this floor by 20, the Raptors by 34 and the Clippers by 13. And coming off a win, the Hawks have been a clear ‘bet-against’, 0-6 SU in this role with only two of those defeats coming by single digit margins. Opposing teams are getting healthy offensively against Atlanta’s shoddy defense. They’ve allowed just shy of 50% shooting over their last eight games, with five opponents hanging at least 110 on Mike Budenholzer’s squad. Last time out, the Heat were without their starting point guard and two other starters, including their top creator from the wing, James Johnson. They still hung 104 on Atlanta and were in position to steal the game at the end. The Pacers have been an undervalued commodity from Day 1 this year, 19-12 ATS despite suffering three SU losses in their last four ballgames, including a one point heartbreaker on the second night of back-2-backs against the Celtics on Monday. Victor Oladipo is the type of emerging star that Mike Budenholzer can only dream of right now. The Myles Turner/Domantas Sabonis low post duo have been outstanding. Lance Stephenson’s energy off the bench has been a legitimate difference maker. Bojan Bogdanovic is raining three’s. Darren Collison has a 4.0 assist-to-turnover ratio at the point. In short, despite low expectations, there’s nothing fraudulent about the Pacers early season success. They’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven tries off a loss and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. I expect them to bounce back strong off Monday’s loss with a comfortable road win tonight. Take the Pacers. |
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12-20-17 | Raptors -2.5 v. Hornets | 129-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#701) Everything broke right for the Hornets on Monday Night as they snapped their losing streak with a win over the Knicks. New York was shorthanded and was flat from the opening tip. Charlotte got huge games from role players Frank Kaminsky, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams. Charlotte’s weak bench had a big night and New York’s weak guard play couldn’t stop Charlotte from penetrating the lane for easy buckets. That was Monday. Toronto presents a much tougher challenge for the Hornets, especially given Charlotte’s lack of home court edge these days. Let’s not forget that prior to the win over the Knicks, Charlotte had lost five straight on this floor, 0-5 ATS in defeat. We should note that the Hornets have been miserable off a win – their last two game winning streak (SU or ATS) came before Thanksgiving! Nor should we forget what happened when the Hornets matched up with Toronto last month; a game where the Raptors had 71 points at halftime, cruising to victory because the Hornets couldn’t stop Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan from penetrating and creating good looks in the paint. Toronto is clicking on all cylinders now, racking up nine wins in their last ten ballgames. Dwayne Casey has tweaked his offense, looking to push the pace and create more balanced scoring, not just their All Star guards. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan: "(The new offense is) coming along well. We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing”. I concur! Take the Raptors. |
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12-18-17 | Texas-Arlington +12.5 v. Creighton | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Texas- Arlington (#729) The Mavericks won 27 games last year but didn’t get a Big Dance bid, relegated to the NIT. With a team that’s every bit as talented this year, games like tonight at Creighton really matter for UTA, a HUGE game for the road underdog. Arlington returned loads of talent from that 27 win squad, starting with their senior point guard Erick Neal and senior big man Kevin Hervey. 7 foot graduate transfer Johnny Hamilton is a nasty low post defender and the team’s third leading scorer. Head coach Scott Cross has a rotation that goes nine players deep; only Neal and Hervey average more than 30 minutes per game - this a team we can support comfortably in this pointspread range. Arlington does one thing well, where most talented mid-majors come up short – this team is downright nasty at the defensive end of the court, holding foes to 41% shooting for the season, just 39% in their last five games. That matters, in particular, against the hot shooting Bluejays, who have averaged 90 points per game this season on 51% shooting. That shooting touch has helped them notch multiple blowouts over lesser foes – three of their last four victories have come by 40+ point margins. But when Creighton has stepped up in class against solid competition – like they’ll face tonight, even though UTA is not a ‘name’ program – the results have been very different. Against Nebraska, Gonzaga, Baylor, UCLA and Northwestern – the Bluejays had two losses and three relatively tight wins. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take UT-Arlington. |
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12-18-17 | Heat -3 v. Hawks | 104-110 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#705) The Hawks are not a team with any significant home court edge these days, just 3-10 SU on this floor. In recent weeks, we’ve seen the Nets win by 20, the Raptors by 34 and the Clippers by 13 here in Atlanta. My clients and I cashed a winning bet on the Pistons here in Atlanta last week, and Detroit snapped their seven game losing streak with an easy, double digit blowout victory. Opposing teams are getting healthy offensively against Atlanta’s shoddy defense. They’ve allowed just shy of 50% shooting over their last seven games, with five opponents hanging at least 110 on Mike Budenholzer’s squad. Coming off a feisty effort in Memphis on Friday, I’m expecting the Hawks to be hard pressed to match that energy level or offensive execution tonight, even with rookie John Collins back in the lineup off an extended injury absence. The Heat have been a relatively simple handicap in 2017. They’ve been an ATS disaster area at home, covering just two pointspreads in 13 games at American Airlines Arena. But when Miami hits the highway, they’ve been consistent moneymakers, with SU wins (by margin) at LA, Utah, Phoenix, Washington, Minnesota, Chicago, Brooklyn, Memphis and Charlotte. This pointspread is low because Miami is dealing with the injury bug, expected to be without center Hassan Whiteside and playmaker James Johnson. Both are impact injuries, true. But they’ve won four of their last five – including three road games – without Whiteside manning the low post. And Johnson’s absence is at least partially mitigated by the expected return of Justice Winslow this evening. Look for a comfortable win for the road favorite. Take the Heat. |
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12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#323) The injuries haven’t stopped for the Seahawks defense. Already playing without future Hall of Famers Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor in the secondary and the pass rushing force that is Cliff Avril; Seattle lost two more key starters in their loss at Jacksonville last week when former pro bowlers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright went down. This is a clear problem for the Seahawks. They gave up 424 total yards and 30 points last week, while the Jaguars gained 6.4 yards per play. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s a full yard per play better than Jacksonville has averaged for the season. Seattle was gashed in the running game to the tune of 5.0 yards per carry from the Jags RB’s, while Blake Bortles averaged 9.9 yards per throw, his second best mark of the season. Without healthy bodies in the secondary or among their LB corps, we can expect the Seahawks defensive struggles to continue. That’s bad news against a Rams offense that is really clicking, off back-2-back 30+ point efforts. And don’t underestimate how much the first meeting between these two squads was an anomaly. The Rams outgained the Seahawks by more than 100 yards. They shut down Russell Wilson, holding Seattle’s QB to just 4.4 yards per pass attempt while picking him off twice. But the Rams committed five turnovers and failed to produce a touchdown in four red zone tries. I’m not expecting a repeat in the rematch. LA’s special teams units are ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse, deflating their pointspreads. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately reflect their importance. Here’s the bottom line. LA is the better of these two teams right now - -heck, they were the better of the two teams in the first meeting -- , and I’m confident they’re ready to notch a statement win on the road in Seattle against a Seahawks team living on reputation more than reality. No rush to bet this -- we could see +3's between now and kickoff. Take the Rams. |
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12-17-17 | North Carolina v. Tennessee +2 | 78-73 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#812) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). For additional reading, click this link https://247sports.com/college/tennessee/Article/Roy-Williams-North-Carolina-Tar-Heels-have-no-idea-of-Tennessee-Vols-basketballs-toughness-112285695 Or this one: http://www.thedailytimes.com/sports/vols-set-for-rematch-with-defending-champion-tar-heels/article_cf403cfd-f3f5-5b62-bcf3-fc5a087fee73.html The Tar Heels escaped with a two point win over Tennessee at home in Chapel Hill last year. The rematch in Knoxville has all the makings of a Vols upset. Roy Williams knows what’s coming from Rick Barnes squad today; North Carolina’s first game following a twelve day layoff, and their first true road game since knocking off struggling Stanford nearly a month ago: “You’re gonna win some games, just like (Western Carolina), when we were just more gifted. I think you have to understand that, and you have to try to prepare for the really good teams. We’re gonna face a challenge on Sunday. It will hit ‘em right in the mouth, right from the start of the game. I’m really anxious, really interested and anxious to see how we’re gonna play, because they’re gonna hit us right between the eyes, and are we gonna lay down in the floor in a fetal position and start yelling for mama, or are we gonna play basketball? I told ‘em that I think some of ‘em are gonna probably lay down in the middle of the floor in a fetal position and start yelling for mama.” The Vols are as tough as nails, and they’ve proven their mettle with wins against Purdue and NC State and a down to the wire battle with Villanova. They’re plenty good enough to pull the upset today….. Take Tennessee. |
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12-16-17 | Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 194 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Marshall (#207) The mainstream media is going to call this a matchup of two 7-5 teams. Not Me! This is a matchup of an 8-4 team (Marshall ATS, consistently undervalued) vs. a 4-8 team (Colorado State ATS, consistently overvalued). That doesn’t change here, with the Thundering Herd catching 5.5 (as I write this) from the Rams. Marshall has been at their best all season when stepping UP in class, a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog. Doc Holliday has built a solid, winning program here, and the Thundering Herd went 10-4, 13-1 and 10-3 in 2013, ‘14 and ‘15, including a 3-0 SU and ATS mark in their bowl games. But last year was a 3-9 debacle, where everything that could go wrong did go wrong. As a result, here in 2017, Marshall sure sounds motivated to get back to a bowl game and travel to Albuquerque, as evidenced by these quotes: Tight End Ryan Yuracheck: "From a player's standpoint, it's awesome. To be able to go to a place you've never been before and play an opponent that you never thought you'd play from a conference you didn't think you'd play, that's what gets you excited to go play football. We're so fortunate to play this game and to go out to a place like that, it's special." Defensive end Blake Keller: "That's what's exciting about it. People have been places - St. Pete, Boca - but nobody has been to New Mexico. The furthest west that most of us have been was San Antonio, so now we get to go even further.” That level of enthusiasm stands in sharp contrast to what I’m seeing from Colorado State. The Rams fifth year seniors will be making their fifth trip to Albuquerque; not the landing spot they were hoping for. CSU has flat out stunk up the joint in both previous bowls under Mike Bobo, losing outright as -5 favorites vs. Nevada and as -16 favorites vs. Idaho. And Bobo’s quote is ‘bet-against’ all the way – when the coach of the favorite is complaining about time frames and distractions, it’s not usually a positive sign. Bobo: “It will be tough, because we do have finals starting not this week but next week; you’ve got recruiting going on, so it’s going to be a grind the next two weeks recruiting and bowl practices and finals. We’ve got to finish. We want to finish strong academically and finish this season strong on the football side and then we want to finish strong in recruiting for the first signing period. It’s going to be a hectic two weeks.” The Thundering Herd are live dogs in this one! Take Marshall. |
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12-16-17 | Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Iowa State | 65-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Take Northern Iowa (#605) (For additional reading, click here: http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/college/mens-basketball/unis-defense-hopes-to-cool-red-hot-isu-in-classic-20171215 ) The results don’t show it – yet – but Iowa State is waaaay down from where they’ve been in recent seasons` Steve Prohm’s squad has had a top 20 RPI and at least 23 wins in each of the last four seasons. But the core of that group graduated: 73% of the scoring, 56% of the rebounds and 78% of the assists from last year’s squad gone. The Cyclones are 7-0 since their 0-2 start, including a solid home win over Iowa and neutral site wins against Boise State and Tulsa. This team wants to push the pace at every opportunity. But they’ve been dealing with a barrage of injuries in their backcourt, severely affecting their practice regimen. Coach Prohm said that he hasn’t been able to run 5-on-5 drills in practice for the last week and a half because he hasn’t had enough bodies. Northern Iowa isn’t going to run with anybody. The Panthers are truly battle tested after facing SMU, NC State, Villanova and UNLV. It’s surely worth noting that Ben Jacobson’s Panthers forced all four of those quality foes to play at their preferred slowdown pace. It’s also worth noting that Northern Iowa was good enough to win three of those games in SU fashion as underdogs while finishing +12 on the boards – this team has the interior size to bang with the big boys. And the Panthers, unlike Iowa State, are finally fully healthy. Head coach Ben Jacobson: “It’s been great to have (a full roster) on game night knowing that Hunter (Rhodes) and Wyatt (Lohaus) are healthy. Even (Austin) Phyfe, after missing that week or so of games and practices. It’s been great on game day, but, more valuable — maybe six of one, half dozen of the other — on the practice floor. With Hunter being a senior, with Wyatt being a junior, we missed those guys on the practice floor. So our practices have gotten better and they’ll continue to get better as those guys get even healthier.” Wrong team favored here! Take Northern Iowa. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia -2.5 v. Massachusetts | 62-72 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#541) For additional reading, click these links: http://onlineathens.com/sports/dogbytes/2017-12-16/georgia-treks-umass-after-break-finals And http://www.recorder.com/UMass-Georgia-prev-14370920 UMass is a bet-against team today. They’re coming off their best game of the season, knocking off Providence, their second straight win following a four game skid. Head coach Matt McCall: “That’s the biggest concern. We confronted that when we got back in the gym …. For the past 48 hours everyone is telling us how great we are.” The Minutemen have been dealing with finals all week, as well. UMass is a one trick pony offensively – Luwane Pipkins is their only double digit scorer, hoisting more than twice as many shots as anyone else on the team. This is a 5-5 squad picked to finish near the bottom of the A-10, not a squad primed to pull back-2-back upsets. My clients and I have bet on Georgia -- and cashed tickets betting on Georgia -- away from home repeatedly over the last two seasons, including their SU win at Marquette earlier in the month. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “Georgia was a feisty road team last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M.” UMass doesn’t have the interior size to bang with Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide in the paint. Expect Georgia’s defense and rebounding to be difference makers here, cashing another winning bet on the underrated Bulldogs! Take Georgia. |
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12-16-17 | Georgia State v. Western Kentucky -6 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 192 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Western Kentucky (#204) I’m going to keep this one short & sweet. Georgia State is about as weak a bowl team as you will ever find, especially in a game where the pointspread is less than a touchdown. Heading into the season, they were projected to be near the bottom of the weakest FBS conference (the Sun Belt). But their schedule was friendly – they avoided better Sun Belt teams like Arkansas St, Louisiana and New Mexico St. When the smoke cleared from the Panthers season, they had wins over these teams: Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Georgia Southern and Texas St. The ‘quality’ win in that group came against the 4-8 War Hawks. In three ‘step-up’ games against bowl bound foes, Georgia St lost by a combined 101 points. That includes a 34-10 home loss to Troy and a 31-10 home loss to Appalachian State, not exactly elite competition. Georgia State’s previous bowl experience? A double digit loss right here on this field two years ago against a bad San Jose State team. And it’s surely worth noting that their best player, WR Penny Hart, got hurt in their season finale against Idaho, with his status up in the air for the early bowl game. I do NOT expect Shawn Elliott’s first year on the job to end with a bowl victory…or even a tight loss. Western Kentucky has shown well in recent bowl games: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS over the past three seasons, the lone pointspread loss coming in a very memorable Bahamas Bowl against Central Michigan where they led 49-14 going into the fourth quarter. Senior QB Mike White has only thrown 14 interceptions in his last two seasons as a starter, a guy likely to be in an NFL camp next Fall. Taking a big step DOWN in class from the back half of their schedule, look for the Hilltoppers to control the flow, winning here by a TD or more. Take Western Kentucky. |
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12-16-17 | Virginia Tech v. Kentucky -5.5 | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Kentucky (#530) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). For additional reading, click this link http://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sidelines-with-john-clay/article190040579.html Virginia Tech is getting waaaaaay too much respect from the betting markets for their hot start. I understand that Buzz Williams has a veteran squad with four returning starters from a 22 win NCAA Tourney team last year. I also know that they haven’t stepped up in class yet this season, favored in every previous lined game. And the Hokies 55% shooting for the season – best in college basketball – isn’t likely to hold up against this caliber of athlete on the highway. Kentucky has held foes to 38% shooting for the campaign. They’re undefeated at home, with six of their seven victories coming by margins of eight points or more – enough to cover this pointspread. They’re battle tested, showing well for themselves in a battle against Kansas. Plain and simple – there’s a class difference here that is not respected in this short pointspread. Expect Kentucky to pull away and win by margin. Take Kentucky. |
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12-15-17 | Clippers +10 v. Wizards | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take the LA Clippers (#805) I’ve got a clear ‘buy’ sign on the Clippers right now. They’ve won three in a row, including a one point victory over the same Wizards team they’ll face tonight. Head coach Doc Rivers, following LA’s win at Orlando on Wednesday: “We're just playing hard. We don't have the luxury of talent, where we can where we can out-talent the other teams. We're just going to go out and play harder than the other team." Even without the sometimes injured Austin Rivers, the usually injured Blake Griffin or the always injured Danilo Gallinari, the Clips are not a hopeless basket case. Milos Teodisic has given the team a real spark at the point since his return to the floor. DeAndre Jordan remains a dominant low post defender and rebounder. Lou Williams is giving LA a spark off the bench that Jamal Crawford (who had that role for years) would be proud of. And make no mistake about it – the markets have adjusted LA down, way down, since the beginning of the season – this is a team that actually offers legit value at this stage of the campaign. The Wizards got John Wall back following his 11 game injury absence in their last game, but Washington failed to cover as -7.5 point favorites. This isn’t new or different for Scott Brooks team. My numbers show the Wizards with a truly dismal 5-11 ATS mark when laying points this year; just 2-9 ATS when laying -9.5 or less. That, folks, is a track record worth betting against when facing a feisty foe that has been covering pointspread in bunches of late. Take the Clippers. |
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12-15-17 | Pistons +4.5 v. Pacers | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#801) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner backing the Pistons on the road in Atlanta last night. And, from all indications, the Pistons sure look like a ‘bet-on’ squad again tonight on the second night of back-2-backs against the Pacers. Let me start with an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up supporting Detroit. “The national press seems to think the sky is falling in Detroit, losers of seven consecutive games since their 14-6 start. Yes, the Pistons have struggled of late. But make no mistake about it – those struggles can easily be explained without going into full-on panic mode. Each of the Pistons last seven opponents would be in the playoffs if the season ended today – there’s no shame in losing to the Celtics, Warriors, Spurs, Wizards, Bucks or 76ers. “Four of the first five losses all came by five points or less, just games where things didn’t break right at the end. The Pistons finally hit rock bottom in an ugly blowout home loss to the Nuggets before they started this road swing. Van Gundy: “That was an embarrassment.” Expect a different offensive approach tonight. Van Gundy: “We will shift our priorities in terms of play calling. Run some things more, run some things less, not run some things. I don’t think our offensive approach has been good enough to help these guys, so you’ll see a difference there.” The Pistons did exactly what I expected them to do last night, pounding the Hawks into submission. And there’s every reason to think that Detroit is going to carry that momentum forward into Indiana this evening. Stan Van Gundy isn’t fooling around – he sent his starters back into the game last night with a 21 point lead in the fourth quarter. His quote: “It's been two weeks of hell. I said, `We're going to make sure we get this one’.” It’s surely worth noting that 11 Pistons saw double digits in minutes last night, with nobody playing more than 31 minutes, leaving them relatively fresh on the second night of back-2-backs. And it’s also worth noting Detroit’s 9-1 ATS mark as underdogs of +4 or higher this season, an under-the-radar angle that’s been cashing tickets for the last two months! Facing a Pacers team that will be hard pressed to match their energy from the huge game against OKC on Wednesday, I expect the Pistons to win this game in SU fashion…..or at least come pretty darn close! Take the Pistons. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#301) The quotes here tell most of the story. Indy is coming off a truly brutal game, losing in OT in a blizzard at Buffalo. Teams off an overtime game on Sunday playing on a short week for a Thursday Night game have been nothing short of awful: 8-22 SU, 6-24 ATS. And the Colts are most assuredly feeling the after effects of the snow bowl. Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano: “How do you feel after running in seven, eight, nine inches of snow, down after down?. It was a challenge getting on the field and off the field for us (coaches), let alone those players. It was like running on the beach in quick sand. Their legs were dead.” Colts QB Jacoby Brissett on Monday, his 25th birthday: “I feel a lot older than 25 today.” It’s surely worth noting that Brissett’s sack percentage is the highest in the NFL by a wide margin, bad news against the Broncos fierce pass rush. It’s also worth noting that the Colts have the single worst yards-per-play differential in the NFL, outgained by a whopping 1.3 yards on every snap, offense vs. defense. Indy hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since November 5th at Houston. 13 year veteran Frank Gore is coming off a 36 carry performance in the snow – a likely non-factor tonight. And Denver’s defense was thoroughly re-energized for the stretch run following last week’s dominant showing, shutting out the Jets. Broncos LB Shane Ray said it best: “This is the kind of game we expected to play against everyone, not just New York. Everybody that we play, we should beat them like this. Period.” I concur. Take the Broncos. |
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12-14-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Hawks | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#501) The national press seems to think the sky is falling in Detroit, losers of seven consecutive games since their 14-6 start. Yes, the Pistons have struggled of late. But make no mistake about it – those struggles can easily be explained without going into full-on panic mode. Each of the Pistons last seven opponents would be in the playoffs if the season ended today – there’s no shame in losing to the Celtics, Warriors, Spurs, Wizards, Bucks or 76ers. Four of the first five losses all came by five points or less, just games where things didn’t break right at the end. And most of their current struggles have everything to do with a shooting slump from their starters. The combination of Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond, Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris made only 11 shots against Boston on Sunday, then hit 7-31 from the field with 15 turnovers against Denver on Tuesday. The Pistons hit rock bottom in that ugly blowout home loss to the Nuggets. Van Gundy: “That was an embarrassment.” Expect a different offensive approach tonight. Van Gundy: “We will shift our priorities in terms of play calling. Run some things more, run some things less, not run some things. I don’t think our offensive approach has been good enough to help these guys, so you’ll see a difference there.” The Hawks are not a team with any significant home court edge these days, just 3-9 SU on this floor. In recent weeks, we’ve seen the Nets win by 20, the Raptors by 34 and the Clippers by 13 here in Atlanta. Opposing teams are getting healthy offensively against Atlanta’s shoddy defense. They’ve allowed 50% shooting over their last five games, with all five opponents hanging at least 110 on Mike Budenholzer’s squad. Coming off a feisty effort in Cleveland on Tuesday, I’m expecting the Hawks to be hard pressed to match that energy level or offensive execution tonight, even with rookie John Collins expected back in the lineup off an extended injury absence. This is a ‘get well’ spot for the road favorite! Take the Pistons. |
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12-13-17 | Portland State +15 v. Oregon | Top | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Portland State (#735) Portland State came into the season as a complete afterthought in the college basketball world. The highly influential Blue Ribbon guide ranked the Vikings as the #8 team in the Big Sky Conference; coming off a 15-16 season and starting a new rebuild with first year head coach Barret Peery, and the markets haven’t given them an inkling of respect from Day 1 That hasn’t changed, as clearly evidenced by tonight’s pointspread as Portland State travels to face Oregon in Eugene, a ‘one-way-rivalry’ game for the smaller conference, in-state Vikings. And from all indications, the preseason predictions about the Vikings were completely off-base; a team with a highly talented trio of guards that is giving opponents fits right now! Seniors Bryce Canda and Deonte North as well as junior Michael Mayhew ensure that Portland State gets good guard play every night; exactly what I’m looking for in this pointspread range. The results have been rather dramatic, despite the betting market insistence that Portland State is an afterthought. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS in their eight previous lined games, an under-the-radar angle that still holds ample value moving forward. They’ve won straight up as an underdog five times, including back-2-back SU road wins as dogs last week. But the most impressive showings have come when Portland State has stepped up in class. This team led Duke at halftime before wearing down late. Coach K, after the game: “We beat a heck of a team tonight. "I thought Portland State played amazingly hard and well. They knocked us back.” Butler is an elite team again this year. Portland State lost to the Bulldogs by a single bucket, a wire-2-wire cover. They forced a whopping 28 turnovers in an outright upset over Stanford. Portland State is a bet-on team and the markets have shown no inclination to make the appropriate – and dramatic – adjustment to price them correctly moving forward. Oregon is really young and waaaaaay down after Dana Altman lost four of his five starters from last year’s 33 win Final Four squad. Altman is giving three freshmen major minutes. They lost at home as favorites vs. Boise, lost on neutral floors against Oklahoma and as a favorite vs. Connecticut. DePaul took the Ducks to overtime. Last time out Texas Southern hung wire-2-wire at Knight Arena, losing by only six as 20 point dogs. No surprise here if tonight’s game is every bit as tight! Altman knows what’s coming: “It is going to be a very difficult game. I knew that after seeing them in PK80 and how hard they played." Big Ticket: Take Portland State. |
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12-13-17 | Thunder v. Pacers +1 | 100-95 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Indiana (#706) The results do not lie. Indiana is a better basketball team than OKC right now, and it’s not even close. The betting markets have refused to accept that from Day 1 this season. And that, folks, is why the Pacers are 17-10 ATS this season while the Thunder are 8-18 against the spread, burning their backers $$, time after time. OKC has the star power with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony joining reigning NBA MVP Russell Westbrook. That star power has certainly affected the OKC power rating, despite their continued struggles. What the Thunder’s stars don’t have is any idea how to complement each other’s games on either end of the court. OKC has dropped in nearly every statistical category from last year. They were the NBA’s best rebounding team last year. Without Enes Kanter, they rank #11 this season. Their offensive numbers are even worse, currently ranked #23 in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and #25 in assists per game. No surprise, then, that despite the star power, OKC has ALREADY lost 14 times as a FAVORITE this season. They’ve been at their worst on the highway, 0-9 ATS in their last nine tries. This is a ‘bet-against’ team until proven otherwise, plain and simple. That’s most assuredly not the case for the Pacers, an undervalued commodity from Day 1 this year, entering tonight’s game on a four game winning streak, including an impressive upset over the Cavs, ending Cleveland’s 13 game winning streak. Victor Oladipo has put up better numbers than Paul George in his first season with Indiana. The Myles Turner/Domantas Sabonis duo at center have been outstanding. Lance Stephenson’s energy off the bench has been a legitimate difference maker. Bojan Bogdanovic is raining three’s. Darren Collison has a 4.2 assist-to-turnover ratio at the point. In short, despite low expectations, there’s nothing fraudulent about the Pacers early season success. OKC has no ‘switch’ that they are about to flip on. Right now, Indiana is CLEARLY the better of these two teams and I expect them to show it for the ESPN cameras tonight! Take the Pacers. |
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12-12-17 | Hawks +11.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Atlanta (#501) The results do not lie. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been lined as double digit favorites of -10 or higher on eight different occasions this year. The Cavs are 0-8 ATS in those ballgames. In 14 previous home games this year, the Cavs have covered the spread exactly twice. Yet the early money has shown for Cleveland, with Tristan Thompson expected to rejoin the lineup (although Kevin Love is very questionable). Thompson will certainly help the Cavs long term, but I’m not expecting him to be an ATS difference maker in his first game back on the floor following an extended absence. Heck, this team has only won four games out of 27 so far this season by 12 points or more, what they’ll need to cover the spread tonight. The Cavs are a clear ‘bet-against’ vs. lesser competition at home in this pointspread range. The Hawks have given the Cavs all kinds of trouble in the first two meetings this season. Atlanta won SU at Cleveland in the first meeting and covered the spread wire-2-wire in a seven point home loss in the rematch – the Cavs have already gotten their ‘revenge’. Atlanta has been excellent off a loss: 5-0 ATS in their last five tries. And they’ve been excellent catching points on the highway – only one of their last eleven road losses has come by more than eleven points. Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer benched his star point guard Dennis Schroeder down the stretch of the fourth quarter in the Hawks four point loss to the Knicks over the weekend. We’ve seen this happen a handful of times before, and Schroeder tends to bounce back STRONG in situations like this one. No surprise here if the Hawks are the ‘energy’ team this evening in a game where I expect them to battle down to the wire. Big Ticket: Take the Hawks. |
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12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati -11 | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#522) First and foremost count me as a Bearcats believer. Mick Cronin might well have his best team in his 11 years on the job, and that includes last year’s 30 win squad. This is a stable program – you’re not seeing kids transferring in and out of Cinci every year like you do at so many schools. Cronin preaches defense – last week, they spent every practice focused on that end of the floor. Cronin’s quote speaks volumes: "Our identity has got to be about playing extremely hard and being committed to getting defensive stops, and then your offense comes from your defense. Getting out-rebounded is a product of a terrible defense.” Bearcats senior forward Gary Clark: “We've got to get stops…we've been really trying to preach defense, really just getting back to getting a stop." Cinci is returning home off a defensive meltdown on the road at Xavier, followed by a late game fail on a neutral floor against Florida; a game where they committed a season high 21 turnovers and went scoreless in the last minute and a half with the score tied at 60. There’s no shame in either of those losses, two elite foes. Mississippi State might be 8-0 right now, but they’re certainly not elite as Ben Howland struggles to build a program, like so many other big name SEC basketball head coaches. The Bulldogs aren’t ready for this challenge. Mississippi State ranks #349 out of #351 D1 teams in strength of schedule so far. They legitimately haven’t played ANYBODY of consequence to get to 8-0, and they haven’t been able to put away bad teams – Green Bay, Stephen F Austin, Jacksonville State and Dayton all hung tough with the Bulldogs in Starkville. Now hitting the highway for the first time all season against a focused, hungry, defensive minded ballclub, Mississippi State is primed to get blown out. Take Cinci. |
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12-11-17 | Raptors -5 v. Clippers | 91-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Toronto (#711) The Raptors are a relatively consistent team to handicap in early season NBA action. When the Raptors face a team that can stop their All Star guard duo from creating in the paint, they struggle. When they face a team that cannot stop dribble penetration from the guard positions, Toronto has had a fairly easy time winning games and covering pointspreads. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan: "(The new uptempo offense is) coming along well. We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing”. Since Blake Griffin got hurt, the Clippers have let go of the rope on the defensive end of the court. In five games without him, LA has allowed 114 points per game on 50.5% shooting allowed, giving up more than 29 assisted baskets per game. They’ve struggled to defend the paint or the three point line. And with defensive minded point guard Patrick Beverly out long term as well, we can expect those defensive woes to continue even if Milo Teodosic (questionable) gets back on the floor for the first time since October. On Saturday, the Clippers got 35 points off the bench from Lou Williams on an afternoon where Austin Rivers was hitting 3’s and both Danilo Gallinari and Montrezl Harrell had big offensive games, stealing a one point win against the Wizards. But it’s surely worth noting that the Clips haven’t won back-2-back home games since October; a team that is 5-15 in their last 20 games. LA has been a terrible underdog, just 2-7 ATS when catching four points or more. And the Raptors are 100% perfect SU and ATS on the second night of back-2-backs, including a 34 point win at Atlanta in their last try in this role. And the Raptors are relatively fresh off an easy blowout in Sacramento last night. Expect another comfortable win for the road favorite. Take the Raptors. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baltimore (#131) Ryan Shazier matters. The Steelers star linebacker is still in the hospital dealing with a spine injury following Pittsburgh’s brutally physical, ultra-intense, come-from-behind win on Monday Night Football. There’s been a notable loss in the locker room this week. Defensive coordinator Keith Butler: “(We’re) not worried about his football career, (we’re) worried about HIM.” Shazier’s absence is only one piece of the puzzle for the Steelers defense this week. Shazier’s backup, Tyler Matakevich, has been unable to practice all week, last seen wearing a shoulder harness. Cornerback Joe Haden is out again. Since his injury, the Steelers have allowed more pass plays of 30+ yards than any team in the NFL. Safety Mike Mitchell has missed two of the last three games as well, very questionable for Sunday. On a short week, off a physical game, these defensive injuries are meaningful! When the Steelers are forced to make waiver wire moves like picking up Sean Spence (a guy who couldn’t last with the lowly Colts, cut back in October) and put him in practice with the first stringers, it’s a problem. Let’s not forget that ancient James Harrison has only made three tackles all season, inactive for more than a month. These Steelers injuries are coming at just the wrong time – not to mention that they’ve got a pretty serious lookahead going for next week, with the #1 seed in the AFC on the line as they battle the Patriots. The Ravens season long offensive numbers are downright ugly. Joe Flacco is dead last in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt (counting sacks). RB Alex Collins has struggled in three straight road games, gaining only 2.8 yards per attempt on his 43 carries. But here in December, those numbers are flat out lying! Flacco might have had his best game of the season -certainly his best game since Week 5 at Oakland -- last week, finding Jeremy Maclin, finding Mike Wallace, finding Ben Watson, finding Danny Woodhead -- 10 different Ravens caught a pass. Meanwhile, Collins is up to 4.9 yards per carry and he’s punched in four TD’s over the past three weeks. The Ravens offense is pointed in the right direction; the Steelers defense in the wrong direction. Baltimore won’t have star cornerback Jimmy Smith following his season ending injury last week. But John Harbaugh isn’t short on cornerback depth, by any stretch of the imagination, with first rounder Marlon Humphrey poised to step in on the other side from Brandon Carr. John Harbaugh, talking about his rookie CB: “He is a self-starter. You don’t have to prod him really, to calm him down, because he is new to it.” Brandon Carr: “All the intangibles are there. He is smart, physical and can run. He is willing to take his lumps and he is going to be OK.” It’ll be at least somewhat easier for the Ravens secondary this week because Steelers second leading receiver JuJu Smith Shuster is out – Pittsburgh’s WR depth is rather limited these days. And it’s surely worth noting that Pittsburgh’s 26-9 win over Baltimore as -3.5 point favorites back in Week 4 was the first time either team had covered a pointspread of higher than -3 in this series since 2007, when Brian Billick was in his last season as the Ravens head coach. Laying points in this series has been an exercise in failure. Expect a tight, competitive contest that comes down to the final possession – exactly what we expect when the Steelers and Ravens collide. Big Ticket: Take the Ravens. |
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12-10-17 | NC-Wilmington v. LSU -12 | 84-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Take LSU (#524) Abbreviated write-up on a busy NFL Sunday. For additional reading click here http://www.nola.com/lsu/index.ssf/2017/12/lsu_hoping_work_on_defense_ove.html and here http://www.starnewsonline.com/sports/20171209/richmonds-return-gives-uncw-boost LSU hasn’t played since November. Coach Will Wade has been running a defensive mini-camp during their downtime. Guard Tremont Waters: “I'm tired of practicing. I'm ready to get back on the court and show everybody that we've been being yelled at about defense all week and that we're going to come out and improve. We can't score on offense in practice. Everything is being scored on defense. You have to get a stop or a deflection or something like that. That's pretty much what he's incorporated into practice the last week……I feel like the team is coming together.” That’s a ‘bet-on’ quote in a ‘bet-on’ spot. Today’s opponent, NC Wilmington, is anything BUT ‘bet-on’ right now. The Seahawks won 25 and 29 games the last two years, then lost the four starters and the coach who carried them to all that success. First year, first time head coach CB McGrath hasn’t covered a pointspread yet – the Seahawks are 0-fer the season in lined games, and their only two SU wins came against legit bottom feeders. Throw in some depth issues (second article) and we can expect a blowout. Take LSU. |
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12-10-17 | Eagles v. Rams -1.5 | 43-35 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 55 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#128) Three factors are in play for me in this ballgame. First, I’m not buying the Eagles as top notch contenders right now. Make no mistake about it – Philly has been feasting on the weak. We’re talking about a squad that has played a grand total of TWO games all season against opponents that currently have a winning record. One of those contests was a Thursday Night (extra randomness on Thursday Night games, for sure) game against Carolina, a game where the Panthers were riddled with key injuries and Cam Newton threw three picks. The other was last week against Seattle. So all the impressive numbers that Philly has put up, all those blowout wins against weaklings – none of that matters in a game like this one. Philly has to step up in class, something they haven’t proven they can do. Second, I’m buying Sean McVay in big games a lot more than Doug Pederson. Pederson’s gameplan against the Seahawks last week was right out of clown college -- not trusting his QB to make plays against a quality defense. McVay, on the other hand, has shown plenty of trust in Jared Goff, and Goff has paid that trust back with wins over quality defensive foes like the Jaguars and Saints. With all the chaos in LA this week (Philly’s been there all week too, affected by the fires), coaching is going to matter a lot on Sunday, and I trust McVay over Pederson in a game where the SU winner equates to the ATS winner. Lastly, the Rams have one SIGNIFICANT edge that doesn’t show up in their statistical profile – in fact, it makes that profile worse! That edge is on special teams, where LA is ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately effect their importance. LA is the better of these two teams right now, and I’m confident they’re ready to take care of business against an overrated foe at home on Sunday. Take the Rams. |
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12-10-17 | 49ers +3 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 31 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#119) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, and there were player quotes all over the place that made these same basic points after Garappolo’s first start for Kyle Shanahan. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is going to be priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 2-24 SU in their last 26 games – a true bottom feeder. But the Niners had huge edges against Chicago last Sunday, edges not reflected in the final score because San Fran settled for field goals. But the Niners had a 23-8 first down edge and a 388-147 total yardage edge. Even their defense got re-energized because the offense wasn’t going three-and-out on every drive, on the field for a season low 36 snaps (leaving them very fresh here)! Defensive lineman DeForest Buckner: “I honestly felt like I could play another full game after that game.” Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh: “It is contagious. When the offense is moving the ball you could hear our guys on the sideline. It was the urgency at which they felt they needed to get the ball back for the offense because they were doing so well. It's a team game." Facing a Texans team that has lost five of their last six; looking the part of a passionless squad just playing out the string, look for San Fran to notch their first winning streak since Jim Harbaugh left town! Take the 49ers |
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12-09-17 | Cincinnati -1.5 v. Florida | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#807) Florida has had a rough couple of weeks and it’s not likely to get any easier today! Since their 5-0 start, Florida has lost three in a row. The first was understandable – they took Duke to the wire. But that was followed by ugly SU losses as big chalk against Florida State (-9) and Loyola-Chicago (-16.5). The biggest culprit in those last two defeats was ice cold three point shooting, just 8-44 from beyond the arc. But that’s not the only issue for the Gators right now, a team that just allowed 52% shooting from Loyola in Gainesville while struggling mightily on the glass in every recent ‘step-up’ game. This article from local sources explains what the Bearcats have been doing all week since their 13 point loss at Xavier last weekend: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/university-of-cincinnati/2017/12/08/cincinnati-bearcats-must-fix-defense-against-no-5-florida-gators/934343001/ Bearcats senior forward Gary Clark: “We've got to get stops. We were scoring late (against XU) but we couldn't get a stop to keep them from going on their runs. This week we've been really trying to preach defense, really just getting back to getting a stop." UC junior wing Jacob Evans III: "We know they're a good team that shoots the ball extremely well. We know we have to step it up on defense, try not to let them run the things they want to run, and finish a defensive stop with a rebound." Head coach Mick Cronin: "Our identity has got to be about playing extremely hard and being committed to getting defensive stops, and then your offense comes from your defense. Getting out-rebounded is a product of a terrible defense…..When you play a really good team you might not be able to take away everything, but you've got to take away something. You can't give up nine lay-ups and seven threes in a half, which is what we accomplished in our last game. It wasn't mutually exclusive to one player and it wasn't exclusive to halfcourt. We also gave them up in transition." I’m a Bearcats believer, and I love the concept of getting Cinci in a near pick em price range after a full week off following a dismal defensive showing. This pointspread is certainly reasonable….. Take Cinci. |
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12-09-17 | UAB +9.5 v. Auburn | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Take UAB (#755) This is a ‘one way rivalry’ game, with the Blazers ALWAYS getting up to face their in-state major conference foe. Auburn? Bruce Pearl’s squad isn’t necessarily quite as focused on their C-USA foe. Evidence? The last two meetings have been decided by a grand total of five points; 74-70 last year and 75-74 the year prior. Auburn is an overvalued commodity right now. Here’s why; a ‘cut and paste’ from a local source: Auburn has played some well known mid-major schools during the early part of this season. Norfolk State, Temple, Hofstra, Winthrop, Dayton and George Mason have all made the NCAA Tournament in recent years. Indiana State opened its season with a rout of Indiana at Assembly Hall. But Norfolk State and Winthrop both played without their leading scorers. Dayton played without its top three scorers from last year, as well as with a first-year head coach. The best team Auburn has faced this season in terms of where it ranks in Ken Pomeroy’s basketball ratings, Temple, won that game by 14 points at the Charleston Classic. Auburn also has a key injury to their star sophomore guard Mustapha Heron – the team’s leading scorer -- is hurt, unlikely to have an impact today if he suits up at all. And the Blazers are no joke, coming off an impressive road win at Troy on the heels of a dominating showing against Memphis. Robert Ehsan’s squad has the depth to hang for the full 40 minutes, with at least some shot at the outright upset. Take UAB. |
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12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2.5 v. Ball State | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Valparaiso (#741) (abbreviated write-up for this early start game). Read this article for full details: http://www.thestarpress.com/story/sports/college/ball-state/2017/12/08/can-ball-state-avoid-notre-dame-hangover-toughest-remaining-game-up-next/935113001/ Ball State is coming off a monumental upset over Notre Dame, the program’s first win over a ranked for since 2001. Their collective heads have been in the clouds all week; attracting the type of attention that Cardinals basketball doesn’t usually generate. Head coach James Whitford talked about all the calls and texts that he and his team were getting. Then he said this: “I told the team that we played the most difficult game of our schedule obviously Tuesday and then Saturday is probably the most difficult game we have remaining for the whole year. Valparaiso is a very, very good team. They didn't play well against Purdue, and I told my team that that loss no more defines them than our loss to Oklahoma or our loss to Oregon defines us.” Whitford is right about one thing – Valpo is no joke! He’s right about another thing too – the ugly loss at Purdue earlier in the week doesn’t define them, a team that was undefeated heading into that game against the Boilermakers and primed for a strong bounceback today. Take Valpo. |
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12-07-17 | Rockets v. Jazz +6.5 | 112-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Utah (#708) When Utah faced Houston just over a month ago, it wasn’t pretty for the Jazz. The Rockets scored 39 points in the first quarter and followed that up with a 48 point third quarter. They finished the game hitting 59% from two point range and 59% from three point range, making a whopping 23 three pointers. Houston is certainly capable of performances like that; as dangerous an offensive team as there is in the NBA. But I’m not expecting Utah to get rolled quite the same way in the rematch. The Rockets haven’t faced a strong defensive team in weeks – they’ve played the Lakers, Pacers, Nets, Knicks and Nuggets in their last five games, nary a solid defensive ballclub in the bunch. The Rockets have had a very easy time of it, winning all five of those games by 14 points or more while hanging 117+ in every contest. Whatever ‘value’ there was with Houston upon Chris Paul’s return to the lineup has surely dissipated. Utah is a Top 5 defensive team, despite the fact that their elite low post defender, Rudy Gobert, missed eleven games due to injury. In Gobert’s first game back, right here in Salt Lake City, the Jazz defense was off-the-charts good, holding the Wizards to 69 points on 29% shooting. Utah couldn’t match that same intensity on the second night of back-2-backs at OKC, but they still covered the pointspread nearly wire-2-wire in defeat. That ATS win isn’t new or different for the Jazz – they’ve been an undervalued commodity for most of the season. In fact, if you take away their 1-4 SU and ATS stretch right after Gobert got hurt, we’re talking about a team that has cashed at a 70% clip in their other games, just behind the #1 pointspread team in the NBA so far, the Boston Celtics. For the season, they are 11-4 ATS on this floor, including five straight wins and covers. The Rockets hung 137 on the Jazz in the first meeting (at Houston), but only one other team all year has hung more than 109 on the Jazz. Expect a tight, competitive contest and a very different Houston scoring output compared to that first meeting. Take the Jazz. |
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12-07-17 | Drexel +10.5 v. La Salle | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Drexel (#713) When the Dragons played the Explorers in non-conference play last year, the Dragons were an ugly mess of a basketball team. LaSalle jumped out to a 34-16 lead and never looked back, winning by 11. The Explorers hit 50% of their two point shots and 61% of their three point tries; the Dragons couldn’t match their firepower on their way to a dismal 9-23 season. That was then, this is now. Since opening the season 2-0 SU and ATS, LaSalle has a grand total of one pointspread cover in their last seven ballgames. They’ve been favored four times during that span, losing twice in outright fashion while winning the other two games by four and eight points – both times as double digit favorites. John Giannini’s team hasn’t shot the ball well (41% for the season), defended well or rebounded well. BJ Johnson and Pookie Powell are a two man show for the Explorers; a team with precious little quality depth. While LaSalle hasn’t won a game by enough of a margin to cover this pointspread since opening night, Drexel has shown legit signs that they’re getting better in Zach Spiker’s second year on the job. This team has much more depth than last year and they’ve bought into Spiker’s defensive mentality. The result? A handful of upsets as they’ve won four of their last seven overall (one of the losses coming by two in OT), including SU wins over Houston (at +13.5) and Rider (+5, won by 12). Expect a battle between these two Philadelphia schools tonight, not a blowout! Take Drexel. |
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12-06-17 | Pistons +4 v. Bucks | 100-104 | Push | 0 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#515) The betting markets have been excited about the Milwaukee Bucks from Day 1 this season – when the Greek Freak went into Boston and beat the Celtics. The markets got even more excited about the Bucks when they acquired a legit point guard in Eric Bledsoe from Phoenix. But the market enthusiasm for Milwaukee has superseded their actual results, as clearly evidenced by their consistent struggles in this ‘home favorite’ role. The Bucks have covered a grand total of three pointspreads in ten tries at the Bradley Center this season, and they’re just 2-5 ATS as short favorites of less than five points. In their last try in as home chalk, Milwaukee hit 49% from the floor and 35-43 from the free throw line, yet they couldn’t pull away from lowly Sacramento. The problems have been fairly consistent – Milwaukee doesn’t defend well and they don’t rebound well, two clear issues when laying points against a hungry, focused Pistons team tonight. The Pistons have been moneymakers on the highway all season, 9-4 ATS in 13 previous road tilts. As underdogs of +3 or higher, the Pistons have been nothing short of outstanding: 8-1 ATS, including a cover right here in Milwaukee last month. But Detroit is coming off three straight losses to open this road trip. They’ve got Golden State and Boston coming to the Motor City on deck. Expect a real sense of urgency from the road dog tonight in a game I expect them to win. Take the Pistons. |
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12-06-17 | Wisconsin v. Temple -4 | 55-59 | Push | 0 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Temple (#526) I’m always interested in what a team is saying coming off a handful of bad performances. Is this team in the midst of a ‘crash and burn’ or are they primed to step up next time out? After all, Temple has suffered two bad losses in their last three games, losing SU as 11 point chalk on the road at George Washington and as 3.5 point favorites on the road at LaSalle. Sophomore wing Quinton Rose, the Owls leading scorer: “We were prepared [for La Salle and George Washington] and kind of sensed that we were better than them and didn’t have to play as hard as we should, but we learned our lesson from that.” Second leading scorer Shizz Alston had a similar take: “We looked at those guys and didn’t respect them as much as, say, Cincinnati or UConn, so we have to respect every team the same way.” In other words, Temple’s early season results aren’t indicative of who they actually are, offering us value to support the Owls in games like this one. And make no mistake about it – this is a HUGE game for Temple, their first home game of the season against an opponent that has been a fixture on the postseason stage in every recent season. Senior big man Obi Enechionyia “It’s been tough not being able to play on our home court for so long. I am excited to play in front of the fans.” Wisconsin isn’t just a young team this year – they’re really, really young, a complete rebuild for head coach Greg Gard. In their one point road win at Penn State on Monday (note the short turnaround time), four of the eight players who saw court time were true freshmen, and two others were sophomores. Wisconsin is not the most confident team these days – they had dropped four out of five prior to the win over the Nittany Lions – and they did their best to blow a 17 point second half lead in that contest, just one game after getting run off the court at home against Ohio State. Chalk worth laying! Take Temple. |
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12-05-17 | Texas A&M v. Arizona +2 | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#728) My clients and I bet on Arizona last Saturday Night as short road favorites at UNLV. Arizona won the game, but did not cover the pointspread, a disappointing result. That being said, the fact that they won a tight, contested road game by making big plays on both ends of the court during crunch time of regulation and overtime is the spark this team needed! Let me start with an excerpt from Saturday’s write-up: “Thanksgiving Weekend tournaments are not the final arbiter to determine which teams are actually elite. ‘Zona had a miserable run last weekend in the Battle for Atlantis losing outright as favorites to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They lost ATS by 18.5, 13 and 26 points in those three games. Whatever betting bandwagon the Wildcats had – remember, they went into last weekend as the #2 team in the country – has now dissipated into dust. And that’s why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Wildcats.” Make no mistake about it – Arizona had a rough tourney, but they are a legit Top 5 caliber team with a defense first mindset, loaded with interior size, speedy playmakers and NBA caliber perimeter shooters. They hit 38% from three point range and 73% from the free throw line, rock solid shooting numbers. Arizona has senior Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Junior Allonzo Trier handling the basketball, a truly elite duo. And Sean Miller has a pair of seven footers starting in his frontcourt – the Wildcats are outrebounding their foes by more than seven boards per game Texas A&M has a handful of impressive looking victories on their resume, including a 23 point blowout over West Virginia and a 16 point win at USC. Not to take anything away from those wins, but USC was awful (28% shooting) and West Virginia simply struggled on a neutral floor on opening night. Not to take anything away from the Aggies hot start, but this pointspread is out of whack with the relative talent levels for these two squads for a game being played in Phoenix. The Wildcats won a tight one on Saturday and I expect them to win another tight one here. Take Arizona. |
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12-05-17 | Virginia v. West Virginia -4 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia (#718) This will be Virginia’s toughest test of the season – they’ve been -6 or higher in every previous game. I’m not expecting them to pass it! In 2015, West Virginia faced Virginia’s ‘pack line’ defense for the first time and they were hopelessly lost, losing 70-54. Last year, Bob Huggins spent extra time working on how to solve Tony Bennett’s squad and it paid off with a 66-57 road victory. The core of that squad is back, most notably all-everything senior point guard Jevon Carter; one of four double digit scorers for the Mountaineers. Bob Huggins knows that his team needs to push the pace against the single slowest team in the country: “Three yards and a cloud of dust is what they want. It’s like Woody (Hayes, former Ohio State football coach) is coaching over there….We were able to speed them up some last year…..What pack line does is it makes you make jump shots. There’s five guys inside the 3. It’s what Jamie (Dixon, former Pitt and now TCU coach) has done for years…. If you make jump shots, you generally are successful.” West Virginia can hit jump shots. Plus, they force more than 21 turnovers per game and they’re one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. That’s how the Mountaineers have taken 556 shots compared to 431 shots from their opponents; a HUGE edge in a game like this with fewer possessions expected. Virginia isn’t loaded with interior size and their ball handling is questionable without a true point guard on the roster. The Mountaineers handled this squad last year in Charlottesville, and I expect them to handle them in Morgantown in the rematch. Take West Virginia. |
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12-05-17 | Winthrop +12.5 v. Georgia | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Winthrop (#765) This is a truly brutal spot for the Georgia Bulldogs as big home chalk against feisty Winthrop. Georgia is coming off a HUGE series of wins, first beating St Mary’s in the Wooden Legacy Classic and following that up with an impressive outright upset at Marquette on Saturday. ‘Final exams season’ begins immediately following tonight’s game. This is no ‘step-up spot for the home team, and we’ve seen what happens when Georgia isn’t motivated in a lethargic nine point win over South Carolina Upstate and an equally lethargic win over Texas A&M – Corpus Christi. Winthrop won 26 games last year and expects to contend for the Big South title again this year; a talented, veteran mid-major squad with an excellent track record in ‘step-up’ spots. But they got run out of the gym in their previous ‘step-up’ game at Auburn, allowing 119 points on 62% shooting. I’ll take the ‘Under 62% shooting’ for Georgia tonight in a game played at Winthrop’s pace – fast – as opposed to the pace the Bulldogs have been playing in their last few games. And this double digit pointspread makes the expected ‘foul and three pointer’ sequence at the end of the game much less stressful…. Take Winthrop. |
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12-04-17 | Nets v. Hawks -1 | 110-90 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#510) The betting markets almost always knee-jerk in these home & home sets, with $$ pouring in on the team that lost the first meeting in the short turnaround rematch. That’s certainly the case with the early $$ pouring in on the Nets, driving this line down to pick em at several influential sportsbooks as I do this write-up. I understand the concept from the betting markets here – two bad teams equates to virtually no edge for the home team in the rematch, especially with Atlanta sitting at 2-8 SU at home this year. But there was nothing fraudulent about the Hawks double digit win over the Nets on Saturday; a wire-2-wire victory. The Nets hit 17 three pointers in that game, with six different players hitting at least two shots from downtown. They were only -1 on the glass and missed only four free throws. And they still lost at home by margin. So here’s the rematch. The Nets aren’t poised to take advantage of Atlanta’s front court injuries – they’ve been outrebounded by nearly two boards per game, ranked #21 in the NBA. Hawks backup center Miles Plumlee is just fine when he’s only asked to play defense and rebound, and Ersan Ilysova is a tough rebounder in the low post. And the Nets still have the same defensive problems they had over the weekend – their inability to stay in front of Atlanta point guard Dennis Schroeder and their inability to get stops with their second unit on the floor. It’s surely worth noting that the Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six tries against foes with a losing record. After facing the likes of San Antonio, Cleveland, Toronto and Boston in the last two weeks, another ‘step down in class’ game for the home team is a likely victory. Take the Hawks. |
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12-04-17 | Michigan +2 v. Ohio State | 62-71 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#523) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner supporting Michigan on Saturday, as the Wolverines jumped out to an 18-4 lead over Indiana and never looked back, cruising to a double digit victory. And there’s ample reason to believe that Michigan will be the better team on the floor again tonight as they travel to Columbus to take on Ohio State. The Buckeyes haven’t come down yet from one of the more remarkable performances of the college basketball season thusfar, winning by 25 at Wisconsin on Saturday as ten point underdogs. That win was mostly about hot shooting – the Buckeyes shot 78% in the first half and led by 23 at the break, finishing the game with 66% shooting and a +14 rebounding edge. Note the quote from Badgers big man Ethan Happ, following the game: “The easiest thing to say is we didn't come with enough energy. We just need to be more prepared to play." I’m not expecting to see similar quotes from the Wolverines as they face their rival. This will be Ohio State’s sixth game in 12 days, all against quality competition. Chris Holtmann’s squad is likely to be anything BUT fresh here. We’ve already seen Ohio State come up on the wrong end of big in-game turnarounds – Ohio State was outscored 49-28 after halftime against Clemson last week, right here at Value City Arena. And they led Butler 56-41 with less than four minutes to play before a complete meltdown cost them the game in overtime. Coming off a near perfect game, with just a 48 hour turnaround off what has been a VERY intense stretch, I’m not expecting Ohio State to come out clicking on all cylinders here. Even if they do, this team is prone to in-game collapses, even on this floor. And the Wolverines are no joke; a veteran squad coming off a 26 win campaign with the interior size to bang and the perimeter shooting to win. Take Michigan. |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4.5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#370) My clients and I cashed a winner betting AGAINST New Orleans last week, yet I have no hesitation betting ON the Saints this week. What gives? Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up: “We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week.” That was then, this is now. The Saints, now, have been humbled, off a frustrating loss. It’s surely worth noting that blindly betting Drew Brees off a loss since 2003 has been a major moneywinning proposition: 52-32 ATS (discounting pushes). And the injury riddled Saints defense is getting much healthier. Safety Kenny Vaccaro and LB AJ Klein both returned to the lineup last week. CB Ken Crawley is expected back in the lineup this week and he could be re-joined by rookie standout CB Marshon Lattimore, who missed last weeks’ game. The Saints won the first meeting between these two teams 34-13 because the Panthers offense didn’t work. Guess what – despite the 35 points they hung on the Jets last week, the Panthers offense still doesn’t work! Carolina scored on special teams and on defense last week; something I wouldn’t count on happening two weeks in a row. Without the traded Kelvin Benjamin or the injured Curtis Samuel and Greg Olson, Cam Newton completed only 11 of his 28 pass attempts while taking three sacks. They finished the game averaging less than 5.0 yards per play. Jonathan Stewart gained only 26 yards on his 15 carries. Devin Funchess was the only WR to catch a pass. This is not an offense that is clicking on all cylinders right now, bad news against an angry, focused Saints team primed to win this one by margin. Carolina’s defense isn’t necessarily as good as advertised either! The Panthers have faced San Fran, Buffalo, Chicago, Tampa (with Ryan Fitzpatrick), Miami and the Jets; all bottom quartile offenses that make the Panthers defensive numbers look at least a notch or two better than they probably are. Take the Saints. |
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12-03-17 | Browns +14 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#371) The public bets against Cleveland every week and wins. The wiseguys bet ON Cleveland every week and lose. This has been going on for the better part of the last two seasons. The Browns are 2-9 ATS this year – dead last in the NFL; even worse than the Broncos, Bucs, Giants or Cardinals. They finished dead last in the NFL last year, covering only three pointspreads in 16 games. Clearly, there is going to be ‘value’ on the Browns after a dismal ATS stretch like this one, but only if they’re not quite as bad as the betting markets would indicate. I genuinely think that’s the case here, especially with star WR Josh Gordon returning to the lineup this week after an extended NFL mandated suspension. Hue Jackson is expected to stick Gordon right into the starting lineup on the other side from Corey Coleman, giving the Browns a pair of big play weapons on the outside. Cleveland has run the ball effectively all year, to the tune of 4.4 yards per carry. The Chargers, despite having Melvin Gordon on the roster, are more than a half yard per carry worse. LA doesn’t stop the run particularly well either, dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Browns run defense is more than a yard and a half better PER CARRY than the Chargers. I’ve NEVER seen that before from a two touchdown underdog in my 19 previous football seasons here in Las Vegas. I understand that Cleveland has had all sorts of ‘never before’s’ and ‘how is this possible’ non-covers over the past two seasons – their betting bandwagon grows smaller and smaller every week. It’s been all about turnovers for the Browns, both this year and last. They’re -17 in turnovers already this season, dead last in the NFL, and they’ve got a young, inexperienced QB in Deshone Kizer who makes more than his fair share of mistakes. If the Browns are -3 in turnovers again this week, they’re not likely to cover. But the Browns didn’t commit a turnover last week. They’re facing the only team they’ve actually beaten in SU fashion over the last two years; knocking off LA last December. And the Chargers are NOT built for covering big pointspreads. This is the first time all year that LA is higher than -7. In fact, it’s the first time since 2014 that they’ve laid more than a TD; not a role that suits them. At -14 over the past three seasons, the Chargers would be 4-39 ATS. At +14 this year, the Browns would have only 3 ATS losses in their first eleven games, instead of the 2-9 ATS mark they current have. This is anything BUT a ‘step-up’ game for the Chargers, coming off their Thanksgiving blowout at Dallas. Now that so many bettors have given up on Cleveland completely, this is the week to step in and expect them to cash for us, with room to spare. Take the Browns. |
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12-03-17 | Seton Hall +3.5 v. Louisville | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Seton Hall (#721) There are four key factors in play for me to support Seton Hall as they travel to Louisville; a game I expect the Pirates to win in outright fashion (sorry, abbreviated write-up on a busy NFL Sunday morning). First, the Pirates have the low post size to bang with the Louisville bigs. More than 40% of the Pirates shots are layups, dunks and other easy looks near the basket, with Angel Delgad, Ismael Sanago and feisty wing Desi Rodriguez all pounding the offensive glass. Second, the Pirates ball pressure – forcing turnovers on nearly a quarter of their opponents possessions -- is a problem for a Louisville team that has struggled with their ball handling at key junctures in early season play. Third, Louisville isn’t hitting perimeter shots, unable to put teams away. For the season, no one on David Padgett’s squad has hit more than seven three pointers. That’s bad news against a Seton Hall squad that has been draining their open perimeter looks, coming off a 50% shooting effort against what had been the nation’s best defensive team. Lastly, I want Seton Hall in their ‘step-up’ games on the highway. Throughout the Kevin Willard era, this team has been extraordinarily tough in hostile environments. Last year, the core of this team went 8-2 ATS as dogs away from home, and I’m expecting more of the same on Sunday. Take Seton Hall |
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12-02-17 | Arizona -4.5 v. UNLV | 91-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#605) Thanksgiving Weekend tournaments are not the final arbiter to determine which teams are actually elite. ‘Zona had a miserable run last weekend in the Battle for Atlantis losing outright as favorites to NC State, SMU and Purdue. They lost ATS by 18.5, 13 and 26 points in those three games. Whatever betting bandwagon the Wildcats had – remember, they went into last weekend as the #2 team in the country – has now dissipated into dust. That’s why it’s time to ‘buy low’ on the Wildcats as they travel to Las Vegas to take on the Runnin’ Rebels tonight. First, make no mistake about it – Arizona had a rough tourney, but they are a legit Top 5 caliber team with a defense first mindset, loaded with interior size, speedy playmakers and NBA caliber perimeter shooters. Secondly, UNLV is still an overrated commodity, even after taking their first loss of the season at Northern Iowa on Wednesday. The Rebels have been feasting on the weak. Their signature win in their 6-1 start came against a Utah team expected to finish near the bottom of the PAC-12 standings. All five of their other victories came in games where UNLV was favored by -13 or higher. Arizona is, by FAR, the best team UNLV has faced this season. It’s not the same case looking the other way….. The Rebels are +13 PER GAME on the boards for the season. That interior dominance isn’t going to happen against Sean Miller’s squad, who starts a pair of seven footers. Opponents have hit only 23% of their three point attempts vs. UNLV; a stat that’s primed for correction tonight against an Arizona team that’s hitting better than 38% from beyond the arc this season. UNLV’s defense had hel foes to an 0.71 turnover to assist ratio. Arizona has senior Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Junior Allonzo Trier handling the basketball, a truly elite duo. The Rebels might hang around for a while with the friendly crowd cheering, but we can expect Arizona to pull away at some point. And the Wildcats solid free throw shooting – 73% for the season – gives me confidence that they can hit the clutch foul shots down the stretch if the game is still tight. Take Arizona. |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL v. CLEMSON -9 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Clemson (#326) If experience matters at this time of the year – and I think it does – no team in the country has an edge over the Clemson Tigers. Clemson has played in big games all year – Auburn, at Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at NC State, at South Carolina etc etc. They won all of those games. This is their third consecutive trip to the ACC Championship Game; they won each of the first two. Clemson has also played in four college football playoff games over the previous two seasons – the biggest games on the biggest stage that college football has to offer. Miami? Well, they did beat West Virginia in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year, their first bowl win this decade. And they did dominate in their two biggest games of the season, beating Virginia Tech, then blowing out Notre Dame. Of course, it’s worth noting that both Virginia Tech and Notre Dame stumbled badly down the stretch. And it’s worth noting that both of those games came at home. This game, of course, will be played in Charlotte. And when we look at what happened to the Hurricanes away from home this year, it’s not hard to make a case for betting against them! Miami’s starting QB Malik Rosier got benched for a series last week at Pitt; Miami’s first loss of the season. For the season, Rosier completed only 55% of his throws. Leading rusher Mark Walton got hurt, and his replacement, Travis Homer is not a ‘grind it out between the tackles’ type runner. No receiver has more than 45 catches or 583 receiving yards. This is NOT an elite offense or a particularly confident QB, bad news against what is most assuredly an elite defense. Brent Venables stop unit is, once again, ranked in the top six in the country in yardage allowed, points allowed and sacks. There are two other key factors in play for me here. First comes freshness. Miami hasn’t had a week off since mid-September, now playing their 11th consecutive game without a bye. Clemson had a mid-October bye and they faced lowly Citadel two weeks ago, by far the fresher of these two squads at this late stage of the season. Second, Miami has struggles away from home; Clemson does not. The ‘Canes gained just 232 yards at Pitt last week; the rare double digit favorite to lost outright despite a turnover advantage. They were lucky to beat a 5-6 squad Florida State, had to rally from behind to knock off a 3-9 North Carolina team and lost by double digits to a 5-7 Pitt squad. Let’s be real. Miami’s success this season has been about the Turnover Chain more than any other factor. In their final six games, the ‘Canes created 21 turnovers; with 29 takeaways on the season. The offense turned it over only 12 times all year. Teams that live off turnover margin aren’t primed for success against a Clemson offense that, like Miami, only gave it away 12 times in 12 games. It was 58-0 the last time these two teams met, and I don’t think the gap has closed significantly……Tigers roll. Take Clemson. |
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12-02-17 | Georgia +6 v. Marquette | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#525) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner taking Georgia plus the points in the Wooden Legacy Tourney last weekend. And Mark Fox’s Bulldogs are primed to make us some more money today in their first game since that OT win over previously undefeated St Mary’s. The Bulldogs are rested and ready as they travel to Marquette; a declining program that isn’t even in the top half of the Big East any more. Georgia was a feisty road underdog last year, and the core of that team remains in place with four starters back. The Bulldogs notched SU road wins at Georgia Tech, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in 2016-17. They took Florida and Kentucky to OT before falling short, covered the spread on a neutral floor against Kansas, lost by only two at South Carolina and by only one at Texas A&M. My numbers show the Bulldogs on an 11-3-1 ATS run when catching points, and even that’s somewhat misleading. Two of the three ATS losses should have asterisks attached, due to some unusual late game shenanigans. Unusual late game shenanigans are possible here – Marquette is an elite free throw shooting team -- but I certainly wouldn’t call them likely. And Marquette has to be in the lead late to get those FT attempts. That’s likely to be a problem, because Steve Wojociechowski’s squad isn’t playing much defense. Based on KenPom’s advanced metric numbers, Georgia ranks #44 in the country in defensive efficiency. Marquette is at #151. That’s a pretty big defensive edge for the underdog, especially when we consider that the Golden Eagles don’t have the interior size to bang with Yante Maten, Nicolas Claxton and Derrick Ogbeide in the paint. Expect Georgia’s defense and rebounding to be difference makers here, cashing another winning bet in the underdog role. Take Georgia. |
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12-02-17 | Indiana v. Michigan -7.5 | 55-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Michigan (#522). Sorry, no detailed write-up for this early start game. Michigan is in a Grade 'A' spot back home off a dismal showing at North Carolina, and Indiana is 'fade' material in this pointspread range when stepping up in class on the highway. Take the Wolverines! |
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12-02-17 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic -11 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Florida Atlantic (#316) I’m going to keep this write-up short and sweet. Florida Atlantic won the first meeting between these two teams by a 69-31 margin. It wasn’t as close as the 38 point final margin of victory would indicate – the game was 41-7 at halftime, and, quite frankly, was all but finished with a 24-0 Owls lead by the end of the first quarter. FAU scored on their first 11 drives, gaining 804 yards on just 72 snaps: 447 rushing and 357 passing. So what’s different for the rematch? Not much! Florida Atlantic has size, speed and talent edges all over the field. North Texas didn’t show any more ability to compete when stepping up in class on the highway in ugly losses at Iowa and SMU; a defense that has not fared well against speed and tempo. The Mean Green defense has generated only seven interceptions all season, and they’ve been feasting on the weak to get here. Each of their last three games came against an opponent that ranked #121 or worse (out of 129 teams) in passing efficiency this season. FAU ranks #34 on that list. North Texas can’t realistically hope to stop an FAU offense with big play weapons all over the place. Five different rushers and five different pass catchers had TD’s of 40+ yards this year for the Owls. But can the Mean Green trade points here? They are balanced on offense and QB Mason Fine threw for nearly 3400 yards with a 27-11 TD –INT ratio for the season. But, quite literally, everything North Texas has been able to accomplish offensively this season has been the result of a remarkably weak slate of foes, a schedule that is ranked #117th according to Sagarin’s methodology. I do NOT expect the back door to be open here any more than it was open in that first meeting because FAU isn’t likely to stop scoring…..Take Florida Atlantic |
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12-01-17 | Illinois +5.5 v. Northwestern | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Illinois (#723) Northwestern isn’t playing well enough to lay this type of a price to an opponent that has OWNED them in recent seasons. And don’t underestimate how much the Wildcats temporary digs, miles from campus, affects the strength (or lack thereof) of their home court advantage. Put those two factors together and the Illini are a clear choice for this bettor in the Big 10 opener on Friday Night. The betting markets have been too high on Chris Collins team from Day 1 this season. The influential Blue Ribbon guide had the Wildcats ranked in their preseason Top 25; just about every preseason guide had the Wildcats building off their NCAA Tourney appearance last March. But the early results have proven otherwise. Northwestern has already lost SU twice as a favorite as part of their 1-4 ATS run to open the season, the lone cover coming by just a half a point. Their offensive numbers are weak, their defensive numbers are weak, and they’ve been outrebounded on a consistent basis. To make matters worse for the Wildcats, Welsh-Ryan Arena is getting renovated this year, forcing the Wildcats to play at the AllState Arena in Rosemont, a full half hour drive away from campus (with no traffic). They have yet to cover a pointspread at the new venue. Northwestern went to the Big Dance last year while Illinois went to the NIT despite the fact that the Illini won both meetings, SU and ATS. This isn’t new or different – the Illini have covered every meeting between these two in-state rivals dating back to 2015. You’d have to go back to 2013 before you find a NW win in this series by enough of a margin to cover tonight’s pointspread. Brad Underwood plus the points is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Illini. |
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11-30-17 | Bulls v. Nuggets -11 | 110-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#506) My handicap on Chicago is very simple right now. Motivated teams are going to beat the Bulls by margin. Chicago is going to win a handful of games on hot shooting nights. They’ll win another handful of games when their opponents look past them. But on most nights, the Bulls are going to lose by however much their opponent wants to beat them by; the single worst team in the NBA this season, a true bottom feeder. In their last six road games, the Bulls have lost by 30+ on three separate occasions while going 0-6 ATS. This is not a team capable of ‘digging down deep’ when facing adversity on the highway right now, which is particularly bad news for tonight’s game against the Nuggets. Denver is a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency but that certainly wasn’t the case on Tuesday, when the Nuggets turned a 49-48 halftime lead into a 106-77 defeat; by far their worst half of basketball all season. Even worse, it came in front of a rare ESPN national audience for a team that doesn’t get a ton of TV time. Head coach Mike Malone: “We were completely outplayed. Just an awful, embarrassing night for the Denver Nuggets." Denver is 7-1 SU in their last eight home games; a completely different team when playing at the Pepsi Center. The only loss during that span came against Golden State – no shame there – and four of the wins came by a dozen points or more – this team is more than capable of closing out a blowout victory with reasonable fourth quarter intensity. Chalk worth laying……Take the Nuggets. |
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11-29-17 | Grizzlies +8 v. Spurs | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Memphis (#715) No need for a long write-up for this game, because the concept is simple. Memphis just fired wildly unpopular head coach David Fizdale, a coach with a track record of consistently pissing off just about every veteran on the team. The last straw came over the weekend against the Nets, when franchise centerpiece Marc Gasol was benched for the entire fourth quarter of a ten point home loss, their eighth consecutive defeat. Now JB Bickerstaff takes over, and the Spurs know exactly what’s coming. San Antonio wing Danny Green: “We know every time a team comes with a new coach (after a) firing, they always go on a winning streak.” We can expect the Grizzlies to play like their hair is on fire tonight; a clear step-up spot for a team that has been thoroughly devalued in the betting markets during this eight game skid (both SU and ATS). The Spurs are transitioning Tony Parker and Rudy Gay back into the rotation after both missed time. They have shown precious little urgency in early season play, as clearly evidenced by their margins of victory at home. The Spurs 9-2 record on this floor includes only four wins by more than eight points – the Suns, Clippers, Bulls and Hawks, arguably the four worst teams in the league over the past month. Be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline in a game where Memphis is primed to show up bigtime! Take the Grizzlies. |
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11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa +1 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 101 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa (#746) The Runnin’ Rebels have enjoyed a tremendous start to their season, going 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. The only pointspread they didn’t cover came as 23 point favorites against Southern Utah, a game they won by 19. Most impressively, the Rebels destroyed Utah on a ‘neutral’ court here in Vegas as three point underdogs, winning by 27 while holding Utah to 2-20 shooting from three point range. No surprise, then, that the betting markets are sky high on the Rebels right now – heck, this team got votes for the AP Top 25 this week! And that’s why we’ve got tremendous value to support Northern Iowa tonight. The Panthers style is the Rebels kryptonite. UNLV wants to – needs to – push the pace. They’ve scored at least 85 points in every game, and, with the exception of Utah, they’ve all come against lesser competition, with UNLV laying at least -13.5 in their other five previous games. Northern Iowa isn’t going to run with anybody. The Panthers, unlike the Rebels, are truly battle tested after facing SMU, NC State and Villanova last week at the Battle for Atlantis. It’s surely worth noting that Ben Jacobson’s Panthers forced all three of those quality, major conference foes to play at their preferred slowdown pace. It’s also worth noting that Northern Iowa was good enough to win two of those games in SU fashion as underdogs while finishing +12 on the boards – this team has the interior size to bang with the big boys. And that’s so key! UNLV is loaded with bigs. Brandon McCoy and Shakur Juiston are both averaging 13 rebounds per game and the Rebels have a +15 rebounding margin per game. Don’t expect a margin like that against Northern Iowa, who is +8 (per game) on the boards themselves; a team that rebounds well from every position on the court. UNI got blown out at North Carolina in their season opener, allowing 86 points on 50% shooting. Since that time, they’ve held every foe – including Villanova – to 64 or less, playing one grinder after the next. No team has shot better than 43% against them in any of their last six games, a VERY sticky defensive ballclub. Northern Iowa has been home since last Saturday, confident and focused off the loss to the Wildcats. UNLV is in lookahead mode – they’ve got a bigtime showdown against Arizona at home on Friday Night. Facing a Rebels team not built for this style, leaving the friendly confines of Las Vegas for the first time all year, we can bet the Panthers with confidence. Big Ticket: Take Northern Iowa. |
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11-28-17 | Baylor v. Xavier -4.5 | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Xavier (#512) Gotta like this spot here for the short home favorite! Xavier was embarrassed at Baylor last year when a three point halftime lead turned into a 15 point defeat. That came despite a +12 edge on the boards for the Musketeers in large part because Bears guard Manu Lecomte went nuts, nailing six three pointers, and because Xavier didn’t handle the basketball well, committing 17 turnovers. That was then, this is now. We’ve got a particularly motivated Xavier squad tonight, coming off their first loss of the season on Friday, blitzkrieged by Arizona State in a 102-86 defeat, by far their worst defensive showing of the season. Baylor was expected to be and is striving to a Top 20 team defensively, yet after the Arizona State debacle, they rank #55 in that category entering play today. Musketeers head coach Chris Mack is ‘bet-on’ all the way following an ugly loss, and Baylor can’t be trusted in their first true road game of the season. Mack made it clear that he expects Xavier’s defensive breakdowns from their last game to be fixed. Read between the lines of this quote and you can understand why my $$ is on the short home favorite tonight: Mack: “We have to be better defensively and there's no getting around that. We recognize how strong of a program Baylor is and what they did to us last year and the problems they present at both ends of the floor….. We wouldn't have scheduled the game if we didn't think that we could compete and compete to win. Baylor's had our number." The Musketeers are undervalued here and they’re primed to make a statement tonight! Take Xavier |
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11-27-17 | Lakers +4.5 v. Clippers | 115-120 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Take the LA Lakers (#715) This situation sets up very well for the LA Lakers as ‘road’ underdogs at the Staples Center tonight. LA will get Larry Nance back in the lineup tonight, an impact player on the defensive end of the court. They had a ‘physical and chippy’ practice yesterday, coming off a bad loss at Sacramento last Wednesday, with a rare opportunity to get extra practice time in during their extended break over the weekend. And they’re facing ‘big brother’ in a season where the Clippers might not be the big brother any more, looking to make a statement against a team that has dominated them, including a 16 point win in the first meeting of the season. Much has changed for the Clippers since that first meeting. LA opened the season 4-0 SU and ATS. They are 3-11 SU and ATS since. The three wins have come against Dallas, Atlanta and Sacramento, arguably the three worst teams in the NBA this side of Chicago this season. Two of those wins just came over the weekend, as the Clips closed out their grueling five game East Coast swing with back-2-back wins over bottom feeders. They didn’t even cover as -4 point road favorites at Sacramento on Saturday, lucky to escape with a two point victory. The Clippers are still dealing with significant injuries, with their top two projected point guards – expected to replace Chris Paul, mind you – both languishing on the sidelines in street clothes. Patrick Beverley is now out for the season; Milos Teodosic won’t suit up again until January. That duo gave Lonzo Ball and the Lakers backcourt all kinds of trouble when they met in October, but I’m expecting a very different story in the rematch. The Clippers have lost at home to the Pistons, Warriors, Grizzlies, Heat and 76ers in their last six tries here at the Staples Center, not exactly enjoying a dominant home court these days. They are, quite simply, not trustworthy as chalk tonight against an opponent with something to prove…..and the talent level to prove it! Take the Lakers. |
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11-27-17 | Cavs v. 76ers -2 | 113-91 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#704) When it comes to regular season games in November, when one team is primed to ‘bring it’ and the other team is not, there’s not a ton of additional handicapping required. And this is one game where the 76ers are primed to bring their ‘A’ game, looking to make a statement on their home floor. Sixers head coach Brett Brown, talking about the importance of tonight’s game for his emerging young team: “Cleveland is going to come in, and it's going to be amazing for the building. This building is wild. How about our fans? Are you kidding me? I can't even talk to my coaching staff sometimes and they're a foot from me. It's fantastic. What a great thing for our city…We're playing good basketball. We look forward to seeing them.” It’s surely worth noting that Philly sat point guard Ben Simmons on Saturday so he would be ready to go tonight. While this game means EVERYTHING to Philly, it’s just another regular season road game for the Cavs. Cleveland’s sense of urgency following their rough start has passed – they’ve won seven straight games. It’s worth noting that none of those seven victories came against a team as good as the one they’ll face tonight. AND it’s worth noting that despite seven straight wins off a rough start, the markets aren’t sleeping on the Cavs – they went just 3-4 ATS while notching those victories, a team still being priced a notch or two too high compared to their level of early season play. Take the 76ers. |
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11-26-17 | St. Mary's v. Georgia +7 | 81-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#564) St Mary’s has been an overvalued commodity from Day 1 this season. I understand the Gaels have Top 25 talent, and their ranking is no accident. But the markets understand that too, hence St Mary’s ATS struggles to open the campaign. The Gaels have shot 52% from the floor, 44% from three point range and 81% from the free throw line this season—they’re not going to shoot any better than that. Yet despite those elite numbers, St Mary’s has only covered one pointspread in four tries, and they’re coming off an outright loss as 18 point chalk in the semi-finals. This is a ‘disappointment’ game for a Gaels squad hoping for big, signature wins in this tourney, because they won’t get many of those one WCC Conference play begins. Georgia dealt with a bout of food poisoning on Friday, then proceeded to blow a double digit lead in a loss to San Diego State; a very misleading final score given the flow of that game and the circumstances surrounding it. Preseason SEC Player of the Year Yante Maten hit just 4-15 shots and lost his cool in a foul fest. The Aztecs closed out the game on a 12-4 run, turning a late Georgia lead into a seven point loss. Facing an overvalued commodity that has struggled defensively all year, look for Maten and the Bulldogs to bounce back strong and hang tough in the underdog role today; a game they’re quite capable of winning in outright fashion. Take Georgia. |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 97 h 47 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#268) This is truly the mother of all spot plays in the NFL this year. We’ve got the LA Rams, humbled and hungry; returning home with something to prove off an ugly loss at Minnesota, outscored 24-0 after their opening touchdown drive. We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. Yet the pointspread here is less than a field goal – the Saints have developed a fairly significant betting bandwagon over the course of their extended run. LA isn’t going to hang their heads in shame off last week’s loss, as these quotes clearly tell us. QB Jared Goff: “We’ve responded to every bit of adversity we’ve faced so far, and I expect no different.” Head coach Sean McVay: “We didn't do enough things to win the football game, and it starts with me. We talk about it every single week, how you've got to be ready to go because it is a very humbling league. We definitely got humbled today by a very good team." DT Aaron Donald: “Their offensive line couldn’t block us one-on-one. Case (Keenum) just did a good job of moving around in the pocket.” McVay is 10% correct about the Rams ability to bounce back from adversity. Following a Week 2 loss to the Redskins, LA bounced back with consecutive victories; scoring 76 points in the process. Following a ‘crushing’ turnover filled home loss to the Seahawks in Week 5, the Rams won their next two games before the bye by a 60-17 combined score, including an impressive double digit road win at Jacksonville. I trust LA to bounce back strong because they’ve already shown us they can. That Aaron Donald quote about the Rams pass rush and Case Keenum’s mobility matters here as well. Drew Brees doesn’t have that same mobility, and he’s been feasting on the weak, beating the likes of the Dolphins, the Lions (in a Detroit turnover debacle), the Packers (with Brett Hundley), the Bears, the Bucs, the Bills and a Redskins team with injuries all over their defense in their last seven victories. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week. Take the Rams. |
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11-25-17 | Colorado +10.5 v. Utah | 13-34 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 17 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take Colorado (#187) This pointspread is simply out of whack with both current realities and recent history. Let’s start with this. Utah and Colorado play close games. Each of the six meetings – all regular season finales, like this one -- between these two schools since they joined the PAC-12 have been decided by a touchdown or less. Then we’ve got the freshness factor. Both of these teams need one win to clinch bowl eligibility – the winner goes bowling while the loser stays home for the holidays, as simple as that. Colorado had last week off, a MUCH needed bye after playing eleven consecutive games to open the season. Utah had no such break – their last bye came in September. And the Utes are coming off a truly dispiriting defeat, allowing ten points in the final MINUTE to blow the game at Washington. And THAT came on the heels of a turnover debacle at home to Washington State; a game they trailed throughout. Utah is 1-6 in their last seven PAC-12 games. Their defense isn’t forcing turnovers. They’ve struggled against the run and the pass in recent weeks. They’ve lost SU on this field to Wazzou, Stanford and Arizona State, the latter as ten point favorites. This is not a team to be laying double digits with right now. Nor is this a series that has been friendly to favorites. The quotes out of Boulder have been nothing but positive all week, a re-energized team with a clear goal for Saturday Night. Coach Mike MacIntyre (who has a pretty good track record in games like this one, dating back to his tenure at San Jose St): “This university has a great history. For years, you didn't even think about them not going to a bowl game. That tradition is here, which it should be. Last year, the guys got it started and this year they want to keep it going. I know some of the guys that were here last year have been calling and saying, 'Don't let it end.' That would be extremely important for us to keep it going. ... I think it affects the overall view of the program. Momentum-wise on recruiting and things like that, I think it makes a bigger deal." The Buffs have a great running back in Philip Lindsey, who entered the weekend leading the nation in rushing attempts. "I'm a soldier, period. I take what I have to do. I'm going to continue to do that. That's it. I just want to win for the program, for my teammates and my family. That's what it's all about. I've learned that when you play hard, good things come your way." Lindsey is exactly what I want in a game like this one; a back who can grind out first downs and shorten the game for this double digit underdog. And I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend at least a little taste of the moneyline at +330 or higher. Big Ticket: Take Colorado. |
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11-25-17 | Bucks -1.5 v. Jazz | 108-121 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee (#717) Utah has won six straight meetings with Milwaukee, a streak that dates back to the start of the 2014-15 campaign. That streak ends tonight. At 8-11, the Jazz have played mediocre basketball to the casual observer. It’s far worse than ‘mediocre’ to this observer. Make no mistake about it – this Jazz team is WAY down from what we saw last year. Utah got nothing from losing their best offensive player from last year in free agency, Gordon Hayward. They lost their best defensive player to injury, low post stud Rudy Gobert, out till mid-December. Starting point guard Ricky Rubio is banged up, in and out of the lineup in recent weeks. Thabo Sefolosha is limited with a bum knee. Veteran sharpshooter Joe Johnson is sitting with a wrist injury. Right now, Quin Snyder’s rotation isn’t pretty – lots of young guys getting court time they probably don’t deserve, with a very ‘hit or miss’ bench when the starters are sitting. The Jazz beat Denver on the first night of the season. Since that victory, they’ve notched a grand total of one win against an opponent with a winning record, and even that game went to OT vs. the ‘not elite’ Blazers. The Jazz are coming off a very satisfying 30 point blowout win over the hapless Bulls. The last time Utah won back-2-back games was back in October. Utah’s one strong homecourt? They’ve lost SU and ATS in Salt Lake City to Toronto, Philly, Miami and Minnesota already this month. This is not a team to trust stepping up in class off a win against quality competition. The Bucks are expected to get emerging superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo back in the lineup today after he sat at Phoenix on Wednesday. Point guard Eric Bledsoe is developing rhythm with his new teammates by the day, coming off a Bucks high 30 point effort. Malcolm Brogdon, who’s playing time was the most affected by the Bledsoe trade, is coming off his best game since the deal, finally finding a rhythm off the bench. There’s no comparison between these two teams right now, making the Bucks are clear choice for this bettor in a game where the SU win should equate to the ATS victory. Take the Bucks. |
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11-25-17 | Texas-Arlington -8 v. Niagara | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Take Texas Arlington (#757) I want my money ON Texas Arlington in a tournament setting. The Mavericks won 27 games last year but didn’t get a Big Dance bid, relegated to the NIT. They return loads of talent, starting with their senior point guard Erick Neal and senior big man Kevin Hervey. 7 foot graduate transfer Johnny Hamilton is a nasty low post defender and the team’s second leading scorer. Scott Cross has a rotation that goes nine players deep; only Neal averages 30 minutes per game - this a team we can support comfortably in a short turnaround, neutral court setting. It’s surely worth noting that UTA is a solid free throw shooting team, always key in this pointspread range. Niagara was a 10-23 team last year. Even with their starting cast returning, this squad can’t match the Mavs in terms of talent, size or depth, and their uptempo ways are bad news against a Mavs squad primed to take advantage of their transition opportunities. There’s a class difference between these two schools not reflected in this pointspread, and the Mavericks are a ‘bet-on’ team all the way in these tournament games, building a resume for March inclusion. Take UT-Arlington. |
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11-25-17 | UNLV +3 v. Nevada | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
Take UNLV (#181) Reno is 2-9 this year. They’ve lost the battle for the Fremont Cannon in each of their last two tries at home, despite the fact that they had the better team both times. In fact, this series has shown no homefield edge whatsoever – the road squad is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS over the last five years. Yet the betting markets seem concerned that the Rebels won’t be up to the challenge as they try to reach bowl eligibility for the first time in the Tony Sanchez era. I’m not buying that argument. First and foremost, this young Rebels team has been winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway all year: 5-0 ATS, including SU wins as underdogs at Idaho, Fresno and New Mexico. Last week’s win against the Lobos was particularly confidence inspiring, as frosh QB Armani Rogers led the team down the field in the final minute for the game winning touchdown. Secondly, Reno has no defense. They’ve already lost a pair of games where the offense has put up more than 40 points, including one on this field against a 4-7 Air Force team in the midst of their worst season this decade. Three different opponents have rushed for 200+ yards AND thrown for 200+ yards against this stop unit in their last six ballgames. They’ve allowed 30 or more points nine times in eleven games. I expect the Rebels surprisingly potent offense to march up and down the field. Third, bowl eligibility matters – A LOT – for this UNLV squad, bowl free since 2013 (and the conference they play in, as UNLV is the only remaining team from the Mountain West that still can get there). Head coach Tony Sanchez: “Every game at UNLV is significant. You are talking about a team that has been bleeding for a long time. Every chance we have to move the program forward, to show progress, to get ourselves in the conversation to get a bowl game, it’s a big, big deal.” UNLV senior defensive lineman Mike Hughes, talking about the humiliation UNLV suffered in a 45-10 season ending home loss to Reno last year: “There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Last year was embarrassing. Seeing (the cannon) rolled away at the end of the game, that’s a picture that has been in my mind the whole year. I’m definitely looking forward to bringing it back.” Live dog here! Take UNLV. |
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11-25-17 | Georgia -11 v. Georgia Tech | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
Take Georgia (#167) Think Georgia is looking ahead to the SEC Championship Game next week? Think again! Kirby Smart was embarrassed by the Bulldogs defensive effort against the Yellow Jackets option last year in a 28-27 home loss and vowed not to let it happen again. Georgia Tech rushed for 5.4 yards per carry in that ballgame while gaining a whopping 164 yards on their six pass completions, rallying from a 13 point fourth quarter deficit to win. Kirby Smart got this job because of his ‘defensive guru’ reputation. Georgia’s defense has certainly been an elite unit all season long – only the uptempo, balanced offenses of Missouri and Auburn have produced 20 points against the Bulldogs this season. And Smart has been working on stopping the Yellow Jackets option since the summer, spending time every single week on Monday’s working to stop the Ramblin’ Wreck triple option attack. Smart’s quote, about his preparation defending the triple option this year: “I felt like you have to familiarize yourself. Really the players, if nothing more than your scout team, can only be so efficient doing something they don’t do all the time, but they can be as efficient as possible. So those Mondays have been really critical for them, those Mondays have been critical for our young players who haven’t been exposed to it. We have worked really hard on that. And then we spent some time in the off week.” Georgia Tech has multiple issues here. First, they don’t have many weapons, with QB Taquon Marshall carrying the ball more than any other Yellow Jacket QB this decade, by a fairly wide margin. Marshall has shown signs of wearing down from the heavy workload of late – the Yellow Jackets bye week came back on the first Saturday of October. Marshall is a master at breaking tackles, a big part of his success. But given the Bulldogs elite quartet of linebackers – a group that could all play on Sunday’s in the next year or two – I don’t expect Marshall to break many tackles here, which means the Georgia Tech offense is likely to struggle. That’s particularly bad news for Paul Johnson’s squad because there’s ample reason to think the Yellow Jackets defense is poised for a rough day as well. That defense let go of the rope in an ugly second half run-out at Duke last week. Now they’ll be facing a powerful rushing squad – Nick Chubb and Sony Michel average nearly seven yards per carry between them – combined with a potent passing game (Jake Fromm is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt). No surprise here if this game gets ugly for the home underdog…..Take Georgia. |
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11-24-17 | California +7 v. UCLA | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 55 h 1 m | Show | |
Take California (#143) The betting markets have done exactly what we expect them to do when a coach gets fired before the end of the season; a classic knee jerk reaction. That’s why the Bruins are still laying a full touchdown here in a game they’ll be hard pressed to win, let alone win by any sort of a margin. UCLA offensive coordinator Jeff Fisch will serve as the interim coach this week. Reading between the lines from the players quotes after the firing, this doesn’t feel like a ‘win one for the Gipper’ type of effort for the home favorite, even with the potential for a bowl berth on the line with a victory here. Frankly, given UCLA’s struggles this season and their ongoing coaching search, a lower tier bowl bid isn’t much of a motivator for this squad. And given the season long struggles of the UCLA defense (particularly against the run, ranked #128), this is not an easy team to lay points with regardless of the circumstances. The only pointspread of -7 or higher that UCLA has covered all year came in Week 2 against Hawaii. Cal beat UCLA 36-10 as an underdog last year in Sonny Dykes final game with the team, and there’s no reason to think that the Bears can’t do it again in 2017! Cal came out of their bye last week with another shutdown defensive effort and their strong secondary matches up fairly well with Josh Rosen and the UCLA passing game. The Bears, like UCLA, are playing for a bowl bid, but there’s no questioning Cal’s motivation in Justin Wilcox’s first year – this team needs the extra practices and would be thrilled with a minor bowl invite, unlike their counterparts on the other sideline. Cal QB Ross Bowers has only thrown four INT’s in his last seven ballgames after throwing eight INT’s in his first four starts, making better decisions with the football. And Bears RB Patrick Laird is up to a full 6.0 yards per carry now; off a 7.7 ypc effort against Stanford last week; primed to run the football down the Bruins collective throats on Friday Night. Be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline for this one, with +230 or higher widely available as I write this. Take Cal. |
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11-24-17 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -6 | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#516) My clients and I cashed a winner betting against the Memphis Grizzlies in their home loss to Portland earlier in the week. Let me start with an extended excerpt from that write-up, giving a clear explanation of why the Grizz are a ‘bet-against’ team right now moving forward. Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect current realities: Things have gone from bad to worse for David Fizdale’s squad in recent weeks, a ‘must fade’ team in this pointspread range against any decent foe. The Grizz went 5-1 to the open the season. They are 2-9 since. One of their two best players, point guard Mike Conley, is out indefinitely with an Achilles issue. Injuries have forced Fizdale to bring Mario Chalmers and Chandler Parsons into the starting lineup, which has left the Grizzlies second unit with a real lack of scoring punch. The quotes coming out of Memphis aren’t exactly loaded with confidence and positivity these days. Here are some excerpts from what Marc Gasol said to reporters over the weekend; ‘bet-against’ stuff! (Read the full interview here) http://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/nba/grizzlies/2017/11/19/grizzlies-center-marc-gasol-sounds-off-embarrassing-and-sad-team/878743001/) Asked why they are struggling: “I think selfishness, but I don’t want to think it’s in a bad way. I don’t think guys are being selfish intentionally. But they’re thinking too much, or they’re allowed to think too much on themselves than on the team. We’ve got to get stops as a team. We’ve got to get good shots as a team. If we don’t do that, it’s a ripple effect that’s just hard to stop. You allow some things to happen, and it’s just hard. Defense doesn’t work if it’s four out of five guys, or three, or most of the time it’s two… To me, it’s embarrassing and sad." Asked how difficult is it to remain positive? “I went to the back and I stood there for 20 minutes trying to think of what to say to you guys. The only thing I can say is I apologize because that’s not what our fans are used to seeing and we’ve got to figure it out…..you’ve got to at least have the mindset of trying to learn and being team first and executing single plays. We have three plays, maybe four. So there’s not that many to remember.” Asked what is the biggest obstacle to building the chemistry? “I can’t put my finger on one thing. It’s not one thing. It’s multiple things that are all tied to each other. What I’ll tell you is that everybody has to look in the mirror.” Denver returns home off a rough road trip, losing Paul Millsap to a long term injury while suffering ugly blowout losses at Houston and in LA against the Lakers. Millsap’s injury hurts, but it’s not a dealbreaker for this squad – head coach Mike Malone isn’t short on frontcourt depth. And there’s extra emphasis on tonight’s game for the home favorite, if you believe this quote from Coach Malone: "It (was) an emotional trip. You lose one of your best players for an extended period of time, and you're going home after a real tough loss. But we're going home together. We're going home united. And we're going home with a belief that we're heading in the right direction." The Nuggets have won each of their last four games at the Pepsi Center by eight points or more, including ‘quality’ wins over the Thunder and Pelicans. Expect that emerging trend to continue tonight in a step-up spot for the home team. Take the Nuggets. |
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11-24-17 | BYU v. Alabama -7.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Alabama (#624) Sorry, ran out of time on one of the busiest betting days of the year, so I’ve posted a link to a key ‘anti-BYU’ piece of the equation from the Salt Lake City Tribune below. http://www.sltrib.com/sports/byu-cougars/2017/11/23/byu-less-than-thrilled-with-setup-for-game-in-brooklyn/ BYU isn’t ready to face quality competition, a team that has changed their style of play completely between recent years (uptempo) and 2017-18 (much slower pace). Dave Rose’s squad isn’t playing much defense either, allowing 50% from the floor in their last two ballgames. ‘Bama is going to make us money this year – Avery Johnson has pushed the right buttons for in terms of recruiting and on floor play, with the Crimson Tide excelling with super-frosh Collin Sexton at the point. Look for the Crimson Tide to run away with this one; a game that shouldn’t be close enough for a foul fest in the final minute. Take Alabama. |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the LA Chargers (#109) Whatever the Dallas Cowboys were a month ago, they aren’t that same team any more. Sure, the suspension of Zeke Elliott matters. But the injuries to pro bowl left tackle Tyron Smith and star linebacker Sean Lee are far more impactful when it comes to the Cowboys current form. In the two games since Smith and Lee got hurt, the Cowboys lost 27-7 and 37-9. Dak Prescott’s passer rating in those two games was a 55.4 – Deshone Kizer territory – and the Cowboys offense managed to put only a single TD on the scoreboard in eight quarters of football. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense was gashed for 215 rushing yards at 6.5 ypc last week on the heels of 132 yards on the ground from the Falcons the week before. Even worse, the Cowboys allowed seven touchdowns in nine red zone tries over that two week span. Tyron Smith isn’t likely to suit up here and even if he does, I’m not expecting ‘pro bowl’ form. Sean Lee isn’t coming back from injury just yet, meaning that we can expect the Cowboys defensive struggles to continue. All of Dallas’s season long stats are lying right now – this team has lost their collective mojo and I don’t trust Jason Garrett to fix it on a short week. Right now, the Chargers are arguably the best team in the AFC West; playing far better than their 4-6 record would indicate. In fact, since their 0-4 start, LA is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, the only SU losses coming in competitive games at New England and Jacksonville – no shame there. San Diego’s pass rush has been devastating; a top notch defensive ballclub. Philip Rivers continues to make plays downfield on a weekly basis while explosive RB Melvin Gordon has averaged better than five yards per carry over the last three weeks. The betting markets have adjusted the Cowboys down and the Chargers up off last week’s showings. Frankly, they haven’t adjusted enough in a game where the SU win for LA equates to a pointspread cover. Take the Chargers. |
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11-22-17 | Raptors v. Knicks +4 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Take the New York Knicks (#510) For many years, the homecourt at Madison Square Garden hasn’t provided much of an edge for the New York Knicks. That long term trend has been costing anti-Knicks bettors plenty so far this season. Since losing to Detroit by 4 in their first home game of the season, the Knicks are 8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS on this floor. That includes outright upsets over the Nuggets, Cavs, Pacers, Hornets and Clippers as well as a three point, spread-covering defeat to the Cavs. Betting ON the Knicks in New York is a moneymaking strategy for a young team that plays MUCH better at home (five road games, four 20+ point losses). One of those losses came to Toronto this past weekend, a non-competitive 23 point defeat. Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek, talking about the short turnaround rematch. "They took it to us pretty good. It's an opportunity to come back and do the right things. We're working our game, trying to be consistent with our effort every night, trying to make proper rotations, and if we can duplicate (Monday's win over the Los Angeles Clippers) in terms of that focus, we'll have a chance." The Raptors are living on hot shooting, just shy of 52% from the floor over their last five ballgames. That won’t be easy to duplicate here against a Knicks team holding foes to 42% shooting over their last five contests, even better than that at home. And Toronto is a ‘fat and happy’ squad off four straight wins, including a very satisfying victory over Eastern Conference rival Washington in their last game. Look for the Knicks to get their revenge here….or at least come pretty darn close. Take the Knicks. |
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11-20-17 | Blazers -2 v. Grizzlies | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Portland (#511) Things have gone from bad to worse for David Fizdale’s squad in recent weeks, a ‘must fade’ team in this pointspread range against any decent foe. The Grizz went 5-1 to the open the season. They are 2-7 since, including a one point win at Portland less than two weeks ago. One of their two best players, point guard Mike Conley, is out indefinitely with an Achilles issue. Injuries have forced Fizdale to bring Mario Chalmers and Chandler Parsons into the starting lineup, which has left the Grizzlies second unit with a real lack of scoring punch. The quotes coming out of Memphis aren’t exactly loaded with confidence and positivity these days. Here’s some excerpts from what Marc Gasol said to reporters over the weekend; ‘bet-against’ stuff! (Read the full interview here) http://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/nba/grizzlies/2017/11/19/grizzlies-center-marc-gasol-sounds-off-embarrassing-and-sad-team/878743001/) Asked why they are struggling: “I think selfishness, but I don’t want to think it’s in a bad way. I don’t think guys are being selfish intentionally. But they’re thinking too much, or they’re allowed to think too much on themselves than on the team. We’ve got to get stops as a team. We’ve got to get good shots as a team. If we don’t do that, it’s a ripple effect that’s just hard to stop. You allow some things to happen, and it’s just hard. Defense doesn’t work if it’s four out of five guys, or three, or most of the time it’s two… To me, it’s embarrassing and sad." Asked how difficult is it to remain positive? “I went to the back and I stood there for 20 minutes trying to think of what to say to you guys. The only thing I can say is I apologize because that’s not what our fans are used to seeing and we’ve got to figure it out…..you’ve got to at least have the mindset of trying to learn and being team first and executing single plays. We have three plays, maybe four. So there’s not that many to remember.” Asked what is the biggest obstacle to building the chemistry? “I can’t put my finger on one thing. It’s not one thing. It’s multiple things that are all tied to each other. What I’ll tell you is that everybody has to look in the mirror. That’s how things get solved. If you don’t do your part, I don’t care how many fingers we point at each other, that doesn’t help. You’ve got to do your part first. Be honest with yourself.” Portland’s one point loss at home to the Grizz came on a night where Mike Conley’s defense shut down Damian Lillard, to the tune of 12 points on 4-16 shooting. I’m expecting a much better showing from the Blazers point guard without his Grizzlies counterpart on the floor. Take the Blazers. |
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11-20-17 | Pacers v. Magic -3.5 | 105-97 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#508) There’s a real sense of urgency in Orlando tonight. The Magic have seen their hot start go south of late. After a win in Phoenix last weekend, Frank Vogel’s squad proceeded to close out their road trip with three consecutive losses. They returned home on Saturday and got absolutely blitzed, trailing by as many as 46 in an ugly loss to Utah. They’ve got another four game road trip looming on deck, starting in Minnesota on Wednesday. Clearly, this is a ‘step-up’ spot for the short home favorite. Head coach Frank Vogel: “We'll see how we respond to this game. I'm less concerned with what happened in this game and more concerned with how we respond from it." Point guard Elfrid Payton: “Monday is a must-win for this group. Obviously, it's still early. We still have time to get better. But internally I feel like we've got to show some fight." Center Nikola Vucevic: “It's critical that we get these……at home, we have to find a way." Make no mistake about it – this is a bigtime flat spot on Indiana’s schedule. On Friday Night, the Pacers played with maximum intensity, rallying from a 22 point second half deficit to beat the Pistons. That momentum carried forward to their game at Miami yesterday; a game where they shot 60% from the field while getting whistled for only 14 hours in four quarters of basketball. Now, playing on the second of back-2-backs and their third game in four nights, coming off a max intensity game and a ridiculously hot shooting game, look for the Pacers to fall back to earth against their ‘max motivation’ foe. Take the Magic. |
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11-19-17 | Bucs v. Dolphins | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#455) I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. When we get a chance to bet against the Dolphins in a pick em priced game, we should have no hesitation making that bet. Miami has shown plenty of ‘quit’ in recent weeks, a team with the worst yards per play differential in the NFL – they gain 4.5 but allow 5.7, even worse numbers than the dismal Giants, Browns or 49ers. Those numbers aren’t fraudulent. The Dolphins have stolen more than their fair share of wins they didn’t deserve this season (missed field goal by the Chargers, Matt Cassel at QB vs. the Titans, very lucky comeback win vs. the Falcons, Matt Moore getting hot late vs. the Jets). This is a squad that could easily be sitting at 1-8 or 0-9 and being priced in the same range New York, Cleveland and San Fran are priced in the markets at this stage of the campaign. The Bucs defense showed pride last week in a dominating showing against the Jets, giving a disappointing squad a real spark of life heading into their matchup with the ‘lots of quit’ Dolphins. From a talent standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two teams – Tampa has the playmakers on both sides of the ball. And frankly, we should expect Jay Cutler mistakes, and when those mistakes happen, I’m not expecting the home team to respond well…. Take the Bucs. |
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11-19-17 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#461) From all indications, we can stick a fork in the Houston Texans right about now, because they are done. Think about what this squad has been through since the start of training camp. A hurricane severely disrupted their preseason. Their head coach cost them potential upsets at New England and Seattle with inane late game decision making. Their owner infuriated his players with his remarks at a well-publicized meeting in an atmosphere of racial tension. Their two best defensive players got knocked out for the year in a national TV home beatdown by KC. Their pro bowl offensive tackle held out, came back for a couple of weeks and then was traded at the deadline. And then, the final straw, was when their sparkplug, QB Deshaun Watson, in the midst of setting all time rookie records, went down in practice. Talk about going through the ringer! Tom Savage is god-awful. The Texans immediate, immense improvement once Watson took over as the starting QB was no accident. In the three games that Savage has started this year, the Texans scored a grand total of three offensive touchdowns, exactly one per game. They are 0-3 in those games, losing twice as a favorite (-6 and -5.5). All three of those losses came by double digits against the pointspread. Savage has completed only 47% of his passes, not throwing at an NFL level. There’s a reason that the Texans have brought in a half dozen QB’s since drafting Savage – they know he shouldn’t be out there. Deep threat Will Fuller won’t play this week, an underrated key to Houston’s gameplan. The Texans aren’t primed to score many points here, and this defense isn’t stopping anyone; picked apart consistently since Watt and Mercilus went down. Arizona continues to fight the good fight, and Blaine Gabbert is an undervalued commodity in this equation. The Cardinals, too, have suffered the injury bug in a big way this season. Yes, they’ve suffered a couple of ugly, embarrassing losses at Philly and against the Rams in London – two elite teams, mind you. But we’ve seen plenty of fight in Bruce Arians squad – two wins and a hard fought loss against the Seahawks last week. They’ve had extra prep time here off the Thursday game, and with 40 career starts under his belt and the ability to scramble out of the pocket, Blaine Gabbert is a QB I want my money on this week. Arians, talking about Gabbert at the end of the preseason: “I've been very pleased. Short-term, I'd be very comfortable if he had to play for us. Long-term, if he continues at this rate, he could be a starter.” Arians this past week, when asked why Gabbert has such a bad reputation as an NFL QB : “He was on really shitty teams.” Which he was; playing behind arguably the worst offensive lines in the NFL in both San Francisco and Jacksonville. Arizona’s offensive line isn’t great, but it’s better than anything Gabbert has played behind in his career! This game ain’t no pick ‘em – Arizona is the superior, harder playing squad, primed to win on Sunday. Big Ticket: Take the Cardinals. |
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11-18-17 | Arizona University +2.5 v. Oregon | 28-48 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#365) I want my money ON Khalil Tate and the Arizona Wildcats any time they face a defense that is vulnerable. The best QB in the country that nobody is talking about did it again in their last road game, rallying Arizona from a 28-6 deficit to tie the game 35-35 at USC before a late Trojans score doomed their chances. And Tate did it again last week, torching Oregon State for 49 points, bouncing back nicely from the USC defeat. RichRod knows that his QB has probably saved his job, improving from 3-9 last year to 7-3 this season. His quote: “(that can happen) when you’re getting the kind of quarterback play we’ve gotten out of Khalil.” Despite barely playing the first four games, Tate ranks seventh in the nation in rushing (1,293 yards)and leads the PAC-12 in passing efficiency (155.5) – better than Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen; both likely first round draft choices next spring. Oregon head coach Willie Taggert knows what he’s up against too. Asked about his defensive gameplan, here is Taggert’s quote: “Pray. No one has stopped him yet this year. He’s a heck of a talent. Big-time football player and is really good with the ball in his hand.” The Ducks have lost four out of five since starting QB Justin Herbert got hurt, with all four losses coming by 17 points or more – non-competitive blowouts. Herbert could be back this week (officially a ‘game time decision’) and the markets are likely to move significantly based on his availability. But I’m not convinced he’s going to be anywhere near 100% if he does get the start. If he doesn’t the backup Burmeister has been nothing short of awful (14 points or less in all four recent losses and a 2-6 TD-INT ratio). And regardless of which QB gets the start, even off a bye week, Oregon’s defense has been gashed repeatedly with some particularly ugly numbers against the run. Wrong team favored here. Take Arizona. |
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11-18-17 | Jazz v. Magic -6.5 | 125-85 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Orlando (#504) My clients and I have cashed a pair of winners betting against the Utah Jazz already this week. We cashed with a double digit home loss for Utah against Minnesota, then a late game meltdown loss against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. And quite frankly, Utah’s losing ways are primed to continue in Orlando this evening. Make no mistake about it – this Jazz team is WAY down from what we saw last year. Utah got nothing from losing their best offensive player from last year in free agency, Gordon Hayward. They just lost their best defensive player, low post stud Rudy Gobert, out till mid-December. Starting point guard Ricky Rubio is banged up, very questionable to play this evening. Thabo Sefolosha has a bum knee, unable to suit up last night. Veteran sharpshooter Joe Johnson is sitting with a wrist injury. Right now, Quin Snyder’s rotation isn’t pretty – lots of young guys getting court time they probably don’t deserve. It’s not like the Jazz were playing good ball when Gobert got hurt – they’d lost four straight before a win over Brooklyn, and they’ve dropped their last three SU and ATS. The Jazz have shown no ability to win (or even hang tough) on the highway this season: 0-6 SU and just 1-5 ATS, including an 8 point loss to the sub .500 Clippers, a 9 point loss to the bottom feeder Suns and an 11 point loss in the rematch at Brooklyn last night. It gets worse for the road dog. The short-handed Jazz have been through the ringer, schedule wise this month already. They are on their second set of back-to-back games in the last nine days; playing their sixth game in those nine days; anything but confident and fresh right now. Orlando hasn’t played since Wednesday and they’ve only had one set of back-2-backs all month. I expect them to be fresher here. And there’s a real sense of urgency in Orlando tonight after their hot start went south on a just concluded 1-3 road trip, with another road trip looming next week. Center Nikola Vucevic: “It's critical that we get these next two games at home. Right now, we're 8-7 and we need to stay above .500 before we go on this next trip. It's very important that we get these next two….. We have to find a way." I’m not seeing quotes like that from Utah right about now……Take the Magic. |
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11-18-17 | Texas A&M +3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M (#413) Don’t be fooled for a minute by the recent run of success from the Ole Miss Rebels. Yes, Ole Miss has notched back-2-back wins with their backup QB behind center, knocking off Kentucky and Louisiana- Lafayette. But the Rebels defense was torched in both games. The Rajin’ Cajuns just hung 427 yards on them in Oxford, despite playing without four starters who were suspended on gameday. Every SEC foe they’ve faced has scored at least 34 points against the Rebels defense. And every SEC foe has gained at least 400 yards against them; even offensively challenged squads like LSU and Vandy. That’s particularly bad news for the Rebels considering that Texas A&M finally has their starting quarterback healthy and back on the field again. Remember back on the first weekend of the season when Texas A&M got out to a 31-3 lead before blowing the game against UCLA? QB Nick Starkel got hurt and left that contest with the Aggies leading by three touchdowns. Frankly, the offense wasn’t the same without him. Starkel was named the full time starter again last week in any easy, confidence building tuneup victory over New Mexico; a game that was 48-0 at halftime. Three Aggies receivers had more than 100 receiving yards in that ballgame, yet the markets have basically made no power rating adjustment to the return of Starkel to the lineup, sending frosh Kelly Mund back to the bench where he belongs. Ole Miss defensive coordinator Wesley McGriff knows what’s coming: “[Starkel] can pinpoint the ball. He's got a big arm. He can make every throw, and they're going to challenge us vertically." That’s particularly bad news considering that Ole Miss can’t stop the run either, allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry for the season. Ole Miss hasn’t had a bye week since mid-September, not exactly a fresh stop unit these days. And they’ve got their biggest rival up next on a short week, prepping for the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State – the only game that really matters for interim head coach Matt Luke’s future with the program. The Rebels lost their NFL caliber starting QB when Shea Patterson got hurt. Backup Jordan Ta’amu has played great in his absence so far, in three games against weak defenses. Texas A&M leads the SEC in sacks – they’ve got a nasty pass rush, primed to make life miserable for inexperienced backup QB’s. And if the Rebels fall behind here (as I expect they will), things could get ugly. Coach Luke: “You don’t want to get in a drop-back game where you’re throwing it and they know you’re throwing it….. They’re an aggressive, attacking defense and force you to make mistakes. It’s important we play really well and limit the negative plays.” Good luck with that, coach. Big Ticket: Take Texas A&M. |
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11-18-17 | Texas +3.5 v. West Virginia | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Texas (#341) I’ve used this same basic write-up to support the Texas Longhorns in three previous tries as an underdog in Big 12 play, and I have no hesitation about using it again this week as Texas travels to Morgantown to take on the Mountaineers. Numbers have been edited slightly to reflect current realities: “There is no better coach in college football as an underdog than Tom Herman. Herman was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State under Urban Meyer when the Buckeyes won a national title, knocking off Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon with their third string quarterback. At Houston, Herman’s teams pulled off outright upsets against the likes of Louisville (twice), Oklahoma and Florida State. At HOUSTON! “Now with the Longhorns, we’ve already seen Tom Herman’s squad excel as an underdog. As +17 dogs at USC, Texas took the Trojans to overtime before losing by only three. They covered wire-2-wire as dogs in the Red River Shootout against Oklahoma. Their defense shut down mighty Oklahoma State the following week, another wire-2-wire ATS cover as an underdog. When you add up all the numbers, the results are legitimately impressive. In his last 15 tries as an underdog, Tom Herman’s teams are 11-4. That’s Straight Up! They’re 14-1 ATS, the only SU losses coming against teams with Top 10 talent: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU and USC. That, folks, is a track record worth betting on every single time!” Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger is expected back in the lineup this week, expected to split snaps with Shane Buechele. Herman on Ehlinger: “He’s a tough dude. He doesn’t get rattled. He’s competitive as all get out.” West Virginia ranks #93 in the country at stopping the run, so having the mobile Ehlinger available is a big deal for the Longhorns! Defensively, we’ve already seen Texas have success against the likes of Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold. Mountaineers head coach Dana Holgorsen knows what he’s up against: “Their defense is probably the best we’ve faced all year. Just a whole bunch of talent.” West Virginia’s defense? Not so much talent……. Take Texas. |
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11-17-17 | Hornets -6 v. Bulls | 120-123 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Charlotte (#713) My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against the Bulls in their last home game, an 18 point loss to the Pacers. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up “Here’s the key quote from Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg, trying to make lemonade out of lemons after the Bulls second half comeback attempt fell short at Toronto on Tuesday: “The big thing with this team is when you have a learning opportunity, you grow. And I think our guys have responded well to that." For a young, rebuilding team like the Bulls, it’s all about ‘learning opportunities’ and ‘growing’. “Read between the lines of that quote and you’ll see the reality of the 2017-18 Bulls. Chicago might win a handful of games on hot shooting nights. They might win another handful of games when their opponents look past them. But the Bulls – even with Bobby Portis back in the lineup following his suspension – still rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring only 92.9 points per 100 possessions, a full dozen points lower than the NBA average”. My handicap on Chicago is very simple right now. Motivated teams going to beat the Bulls by margin. We’ve already seen three of the Bulls first five home games end with double digit defeats. And Charlotte is supremely motivated, coming off a dismal defensive showing in Nicolas Batum’s first game back from injury; their fifth consecutive defeat. This is a MAJOR step down in class for Steve Clifford’s squad, and there’s a real sense of urgency following their disappointing start. Clifford, talking about shortening his bench for their upcoming stretch of games: “In the next six (games), we'll play five of those against teams that were picked top 5 in either the East or the West. This isn't the time for guys to grow up; either they're ready to play or they're not." I expect them to be ready to beat the weak by margin in Chicago tonight. And it’s probably worth noting that the Hornets are a perfect 3-0 YTD when laying -4 or higher, showing early success in this pointspread role. Take the Hornets. |
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11-15-17 | Jazz v. Knicks -3.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take the New York Knicks (#704) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner betting against the Utah Jazz on Monday; a game they trailed by double digits wire-2-wire at home against the T-wolves. And I have no hesitation continuing to fade Utah tonight as they open up an East Coast swing. Make no mistake about it. Utah got nothing from losing their best offensive player from last year in free agency, Gordon Hayward. They just lost their best defensive player, low post stud Rudy Gobert, out till mid-December. Like many teams do, the Jazz stepped up in their first game without their emerging young star, knocking off Brooklyn. What we saw from the Jazz last time out was much more indicative of what we can expect to see moving forward; a young team that lacks an identity right now; struggling on both ends of the court. It’s not like the Jazz were playing good ball when Gobert got hurt – they’d lost four straight before the win over Brooklyn. And it’s not like the Jazz have shown any ability to win on the highway this season: 0-4 SU including an 8 point loss to the sub .500 Clippers, a 9 point loss to the bottom feeder Suns and a 27 point loss at Houston in their last try as a road underdog. And, after closing out a stretch of eight home games in a nine game span with another defeat, it’s not like Quin Snyder’s squad is hitting the highway with a boatload of confidence right now. Despite the Jazz strong defensive reputation and even with Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz had allowed 48% shooting and 108 points per game against them in their previous five contests. That’s bad news against the suddenly competitive Knicks, a much better team (on and off the floor) since Carmelo Anthony got traded in the offseason. The Knicks big, bruising frontcourt – Kristaps Porzingas is playing like a superstar; Enes Kanter is grabbing 11 rebounds per game and Kyle O’Quinn has been impressive coming off the bench – is primed to take advantage of Utah without Gobert. The Knicks are 3-0 ATS in three tries as chalk this year, an emerging trend worth riding tonight. Take the Knicks. |
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11-15-17 | Wizards v. Heat -1 | 102-93 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#702) The Miami Heat swept all four games against the Washington Wizards last year, and it wasn’t an accident. Miami has quality depth; Washington doesn’t. Again and again, throughout the four meetings, when the Wizards starters left the floor, Miami made a run. That hasn’t changed in the offseason, two teams that look very similar today to how they looked six months ago. Washington’s bench continues to underachieve. They get a little bit of perimeter shooting from Mike Scott and Jodie Meeks. Kelly Oubre Jr has shown real signs of improvement in his third season. But make no mistake about it – when the Wizards face a team that has quality depth, they’re at a legitimate disadvantage. The Wizards have been feasting on a schedule loaded with weaklings. They’ve already faced the Lakers and Kings twice as well as Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix and Cleveland, when the Cavs were at their worst. Note the lousy defenses that they’ve been facing. Their just concluded homestand came against teams that are a combined 13-43 SU this season. I’m not expecting tonight’s step-up in class game to work out well for the road team in a game they must win to cover the spread. Meanwhile, Miami returns home off a confidence inspiring road trip. Sure, they went just 3-3, but all three losses all came in competitive fashion against teams that are a combined 29-12. Hassan Whiteside is now fully healthy off some early season injury woes. Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters make up the most underrated starting backcourt in the league; capable of hanging with Beal and Wall. And Eric Spoelstra’s deep bench is primed to be the superior unit again tonight in a game the Heat are primed to win. Take the Heat. |
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11-13-17 | 76ers +2 v. Clippers | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#715) The Clippers current slide is nothing to sugarcoat. They’ve lost five straight games SU and ATS, including a pair of home losses as favorites against the Heat and Grizzlies. In fact, since a couple of early blowouts, the Clips are just 1-4 SU here at the Staples Center in their last five tries, the lone win coming against hapless Dallas. What’s wrong with LA? Lots of things that Doc Rivers isn’t likely to be able to fix anytime soon. The Clippers have injury woes, missing their top two point guards Patrick Beverly and Milos Teodosic. And the always injury prone Danilo Gallinari is sidelined again as well. They’re a sub .500 team now despite strong offensive stats, ranked #4 in the NBA in efficiency – stats that are primed to decline as they continue to play without their best point guards. Rookies Sindarius Thornwell and Juwan Evans are getting backcourt minutes they probably don’t deserve. Defensively, the Clippers have been a sieve, allowing more than 113 points per game on 50% shooting during their current skid. I want my money on Philly off back-2-back losses. The Sixers were flat and lethargic in a one point loss at Sacramento last Thursday, and followed it up with arguably their worst second half of the year after trailing by only one against Golden State at halftime. Think Philly is ready for a better effort tonight? These quotes might give you a glimpse…. Head coach Brett Brown: “The bar is set a little bit higher. The expectations are a little bit higher.I want to own it. With Joel healthy, I think we should. That’s what I’m trying to do. You can’t poke yourself in the eye. Those games haunt you. And, for all those reasons, I have the reaction that I had last night (off the bad loss) that, as you accurately say, has been different in previous years…. There are parts of (the Warriors game) that I think you will find positives in, but we feel like we're past that.” Robert Covington: “We will be better prepared. We have an idea how they are going to play. And we are (going to make) it be a different outcome." Joel Embiid: “We just have to do a better job. With the expectations out there, I don’t like using the excuse that we’re young, and I’m never going to use that. We’ve just got to do a better job of winning the games we are supposed to.” Ben Simmons: “I don’t think anyone expected us to come out like this, and have a strong start like this, but that’s what we expect. We come in every day trying to get better and win. That’s our goal. We should win games like that.” Take the 76ers. |
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