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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-02-24 | Utah State v. Air Force UNDER 136.5 | Top | 88-60 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER Utah State/Air Force. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but now that conference action is here, I'm expecting a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Utah State is 12-1 and fourth in the Mountain West. The Aggies have seen the total fly OVER the number in six of their last seven. Air Force won't be taking anything for granted here though. It's 7-5 and it's lost three straight. The Falcons have also seen the total go OVER the number in three straight. Both of these facts are important to take note of, as Air Force has in fact seen the total UNDER the number in three of its last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row and seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-31-23 | Oakland +4 v. Youngstown State | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GOM on Oakland. While I feel the outright win is possible, in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Golden Grizzlies are 6-8 overall and 3-5 on the road, while the Youngstown State Penguins are 10-3 overall, including 7-0 at home. This is a classic over-reaction though by the general betting public, with the majority of the money on the home side here. Oakland has played some tough teams and while it's 0-3 SU/ATS in its last three, note that the Grizzlies have performend well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Look for the hungrier visiting side to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the points. Grab the points, the play is indeed on OAKLAND. Good luck, NP |
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12-30-23 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 230.5 | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Raptors/Pistons. These two teams are in dire need of a win. Toronto is 12-19 and the Pistons are just 2-29 (including 1-14 at home.) The Raptors have lost four of their last five, and the Pistons are on a historic losing streak at the moment. Clearly, both of these teams are equally "hungry" for a win here, but we can expect that sense of competition to translate into a really defensive affair in my opinion. It's a great situational play. Also note that Detroit has now seen the total go OVER in three straight after its most recent 128-122 OT loss to Boston, and that's important to take note of as the Pistons have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. With each team doubling-down on the defensive end like we expect, all signs point to this total staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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12-30-23 | CS Sacramento +11.5 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SKY GOM on Sacramento State. Sacramento State is 3-9, including 0-1 in Big Sky action, while Eastern Washington is 5-7, and 1-0 in league play. These teams are very even defensively, with Sacramento State conceding 72.7 PPG so far, and Eastern Washington allowing 72.9. The Eagles' stellar home numbers have the general betting public rushing to the window, but in my estimation this spread is now just a little TOO big for the home side to cover. So grab the points, the play is SACRAMENTO STATE. Good luck, NP |
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12-29-23 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -7 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Clippers. Normally I stay away from "public" plays, but despite the majority of the money on the Clippers tonight, I do really love the way this one sets up for the home side, so much so in fact that I've stamped this one with top-rated BOOKIEKILLER status. This is just a great situational play. LA does play with revenge here after a 105-101 loss here as an eight-point favorite in early November. Things have changed since then though. LA is 12-4 at home, while Memphis is just 8-9 on the road. Note as well the the Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. LA broke a two-game slide with a win over Charlotte last time out, but it's lost three straight ATS, which is important to take note of as well as the Clippers are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. Memphis comes in off a humbling 142-105 loss at Denver just last night, snapping a four-game win streak. With a couple nights off before a home date on New Year's Eve vs. the Kings, this definitely sets up as a "trap" for the visitors as well in my opinion. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The play is indeed on LA. Good luck, NP |
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12-29-23 | Rider v. Penn State UNDER 147.5 | 63-90 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on the UNDER Rider/Penn State. This is a great "situational" play. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but now I believe they'll finally play to more of a defensive affair here in their final non-conference contest of the season. Rider is only 3-9, including just 1-6 on the road, while Penn State is 6-6, including 6-1 at home. Will the Nittany Lions get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today to their game at Michigan State on January 4th?! I mean, the possibility is there for sure. I believe the Nittany Lions will take the foot off the gas in the second half. Previous to their 72-55 win over Le Moyne last time out, the Lions had seen the total go OVER in seven straight, so I'm expecting another great defensive performance here vs. this sub-par Broncs offense. Rider has played to back-to-back OT games and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Broncs have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. I say the conditions are right for a lower-scoring UNDER here finally. Good luck, NP |
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12-28-23 | Long Beach State v. CS-Fullerton +2.5 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG WEST GOM on Cal State Fullerton. While I clearly feel the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Big West Conference action here and I just can't understate how important I feel that the home-court advantage really will prove to be for the Titans. Cal State Fullerton comes in playing its best basketball of the season in winning five of its last six. With a tough upcoming road trip at Hawaii and UC Irvine, this contest takes on added importance for the Titans. LBSU is off five straight SU wins and three straight ATS victories, but that's significant to note here as Long Beach State is in fact just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after three or more ATS victories in a row. Grab the points, the play is CAL STATE FULLERTON. Good luck, NP |
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12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 225 | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Suns/Rockets. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair here finally on Wednesday. Phoenix has lost three straight SU and five straight ATS. That however is important to note as the Suns have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row and and in eight of their last 12 after five or more ATS losses in a row. Houston comes in fatigued here after last night's 123-117 loss to the Pacers and I believe that'll impact its defensive play. Note that the Rockets have seen the total go OVER the number in six of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-26-23 | Pacers v. Rockets OVER 236.5 | Top | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the OVER Pacers/Rockets. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I'm anticipating a less intense defensive affair here between these non-conference opponents on Tuesday night. Indiana is 14-15, while Houston is 15-12. The Pacers will be desperate to break out of their current slide after losing six of their last seven. The Rockets have won back-to-back games over the Mavericks and Pelicans. Each game went UNDER the number. But with Phoenix coming to town tomorrow, the home side will have to be cautious to get not get caught "looking ahead" here. Either way, the bottom line here is we're anticipating a very wide-open offensive affair, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-25-23 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 234.5 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Celtics/Lakers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I believe that the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this one being a lot more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Boston is 22-6, but a mediocre 8-6 on the road. It's coming off back-to-back road victories over the Kings (144-119) and the Clippers (145-108), but after posting 289 points combined over the last two games, I just think this nationally televised total is just a few points higher than it normally would/should be. The Lakers finally snapped a four-game slide with a 129-120 win at OKC the other night (I had LA in that one!) LA has now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, but that's important for us to take note of as the Lakers have in fact seen the total UNDER the number in six of their last eight after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. A great situational play here on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-24-23 | TCU v. Hawaii UNDER 148.5 | Top | 65-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* WALLET EXPANDER on the UNDER TCU/Hawaii. These teams have been involved in some higher-scoring games of late, but here on X-Mas Eve I'm expecting more of a defensive battle. TCU is 9-2 and Hawaii is 8-3. The Horned Frogs are 1-0 in true road games, and the Warriors are 6-2 at home. In what we anticipate to be a very competitive battle, we expect that to then translate into a very defensive battle. The Horned Frogs have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five, but they're off the 88-75 loss to Nevada as three-point favorites, and that's important for us to take note of here as TCU has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Hawaii is in a similar spot. Its last game also went OVER the number in a 73-68 loss to Georgia Tech, but note that the Warriors have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to this total staying well UNDER the number. Good luck, NP |
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12-23-23 | Lakers +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. The Lakers have sucked since winning the Play In Tournament, but after four straight losses, I think LA will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the spread. The Lakers play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after a 133-110 loss to OKC on November 30th, and note that the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. LA has a game vs. the Celtics on X-Mas Day, but it won't be looking past this bounce-back revenge opportunity. The Thunder have won and covered in three straight against the best teams in the West, but with three nights off after this before another home game, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here. Grab the points, the play is LA. Good luck, NP |
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12-23-23 | Vanderbilt +16.5 v. Memphis | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Vanderbilt. I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do think that the home side will take the No. 23 ranked home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets caught looking ahead to the X-Mas Break. Memphis has now won four straight. Vanderbilt on the other hand has dropped three straight, both SU and ATS. That however is significant for us to take note of as the Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Vanderbilt won't be happy with its 63-62 loss to Western Carolina. The Tigers are clearly the better team here, but I say everything points to a second half "lapse."Â No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is VANDY. Good luck, NP |
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12-22-23 | Suns +3.5 v. Kings | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Suns. Phoenix has struggled this year because of injury issues. It's main line-up has barely played together. I base my picks on many things, and this particular one is a great situational play that's backed by a strong ATS trend and that's the reason why I'm taking the points here. Phoenix 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent, and the Suns just fell 114-106to the Kings on December 8th. With the Wolves coming to town tomorrow, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" as well. Grab the points, the play is PHOENIX. Good luck, NP |
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12-22-23 | Marist v. Notre Dame OVER 125.5 | Top | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the OVER Marist/Notre Dame. Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring affairs of late, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks. Marist is 7-2 and it's seen the total go UNDER in five straight (while also winning five straight), after its 76-52 victory over UMES. Note though that the Foxes have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.)Â Notre Dame is just 4-7. It'll be desperate here to snap a three-game slide, falling 65-45 to The Citadel as 8.5-point favs last time out, but note that the Irish have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The overall situation combined with the numbers/trends all point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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12-21-23 | Kent State +7 v. Oregon | Top | 70-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER SHOCKER on Kent State. Both teams enter 7-3. One enters "under the radar" though, and it's not Oregon. The Golden Flashes average 84.3 PPG, while allowing 72.5. Oregon averages 78.5 PPG, while allowing 71. I just can't see Oregon pulling away in this one. I'll stop short in calling for the outright victory, but everything points to a much tighter contest than what this spread is suggesting in my opinion. So grab the points, the play is indeed on KENT STATE. Good luck, NP |
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12-21-23 | Magic v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISIONAL TOY on the UNDER Magic/Bucks. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a much tighter and ultimatley lower-scoring defensive battle here finally on Thursday. Milwaukee has won five straight, which is important to note, as the Bucks have in fact seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after five or more straight SU wins in a row. Milwaukee has now also played to five straight OVERS, which is also significant to take note of, as the Bucks have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. Orlando is off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, and that's also something important to take note of, as the Magic have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last six after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I base my picks on many different things. This particular one is situationally based and backed by several strong O/U trends. The play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-20-23 | Alabama v. Arizona UNDER 174 | Top | 74-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Bama/Zona. Alabama is 6-4, while Arizona is 8-1. This is the Jerry Colangelo Hall of Fame Series at the Footprint Center. The Tide have lost three of their last four and the last thing they'll want to do is to turn this into a "track meet" with the Wildcats, whose only loss came against No. 1 ranked Purdue last Saturday. These teams are both averaging in the 90's, hence the really high total. But look for these teams to be a little less efficient here in this neutral site affair. In my opinion, this total is now just a bit TOO high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets UNDER 234 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Hawks/Rockets. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to more of a defensive affair here finally in this non-conference contest in my opinion. Both teams have played to B2B OVERS, but the Hawks get caught "looking ahead" to their game vs. conference rival Miami next, taking the foot off the gas in the second half. Houston lost 135-130 in OT at Cleveland last time out, so I'm expecting it to double down defensively here. Just a great overall situational play in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-19-23 | CS-Northridge v. UCLA -17 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on UCLA. Cal State Northridge is 7-3, while UCLA is 5-4. The Matadors are 3-2 on the road, while UCLA is 4-0 at home. CSUN held on for an 80-75 win over Utah Tech last time out, but I think it'll struggle to keep pace here with the home side. UCLA has had its up and downs to start the season, but the bottom line is that it's faced some really stiff competition, like Gonzaga, Villanova and Ohio State. With upcoming games vs. Maryland and then the conference schedule getting underway, this is a final "tune-up" for UCLA and I expect it to make the most of it. Lay the points with confidence, the play is indeed on UCLA. Good luck, NP |
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12-19-23 | Spurs v. Bucks UNDER 249.5 | Top | 119-132 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Spurs/Bucks. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. I'm expecting this non-conference contest to be less intense offensively. San Antonio is off the 146-110 home loss to New Orleans and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight now. That's significant to note though as the Spurs have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Milwaukee has won four straight. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight, which is also important for us to recognize, as the Bucks have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. With Orlando coming to town next, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead and takes the foot off the gas down the stretch. This nubmer is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-18-23 | Knicks v. Lakers UNDER 230 | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOW on the UNDER Knicks/Lakers. Both teams have been involved in several high-scoring games of late, but the numbers and the trends point to more of a defensive affair here finally. New York is now 14-11 after falling 144-122 here to the Clippers last time out. The Knicks have seen the total go OVER in eight straight, but that fact has only helped in driving today's total a few points higher than it normally would/should be in my opinion. The Lakers beat the Pacers in the tournament game, but have since dropped two of three, including a 129-115 loss at San Antonio last time out. LA has seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Lakers have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Expect these two hungry teams to double down defensively and then look for this total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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12-18-23 | Tenn-Martin +6.5 v. Evansville | Top | 91-98 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Tennessee Martin. This one sets up really well for the Skyhawks from a situational stand point and in a game that I see "coming down to the wire," I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Tennessee Martin is 6-5 and comes in "under the radar" a bit here in my estimation facing the 8-2 Evansville Purple Aces. The Skyhawks are off a competitive 81-67 loss to NC State, easily covering the 19 points and I think they're not getting enough respect here either. Evansville has faced some stiff competition this year as well, but the Skyhawks balance on both ends of the court makes them a possibility for an outright upset here. In this evenly matched contest, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with TENNESSEE MARTIN. Good luck, NP |
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12-16-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 118-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on the Thunder. This one sets up really well for the Thunder in my opinion. OKC is 15-8, including 7-4 on the road. Its two game win streak came to an end last time out in Sacramento, falling 128-123. The Thunder play with revenge after a 128-95 loss at home to the Nuggets back in October, but that's significant to note here as OKC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Denver is off three straight SU/ATS wins in a row, but I say it comes in a bit complacent here and gets caught looking ahead to the Mavericks coming to town next. Grab the points, the play is OKC. Good luck, NP |
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12-16-23 | North Carolina -1.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 83-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on UNC. This is a big game, but one that favors UNC in my opinion. Both teams are 7-2 as they enter this CBS Sports Classic contest. UNC's two losses have come against Villanova (83-81) and UConn (87-67.) In between those losses are three quality wins. One of the Wildcats' losses cam against lowly UNC Wilmington (80-73.) UNC has more talent on the floor here today though (Armando Bacot), and I believe it's already more "battle-tested." Lay the short points, the play is NORTH CAROLINA. Good luck, NP |
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12-15-23 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 244.5 | Top | 125-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Hawks/Raptors. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Raptors 135-128 win over Atlanta here two nights ago. Note that the Hawks have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. While the last game flew well OVER the number, the rematch here on Friday finally points to more of a defensive affair in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-14-23 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 231 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Wolves/Mavs. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Minnesota is 17-5, including 7-4 on the road, while Dallas is 15-8, including 7-4 at home. This is the first meeting of the year between the clubs. The Wolves had their five-game win streak ended last time out in a 121-107 setback at new Orleans. Four of their last five have gone OVER the number. Dallas has won four straight. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight, which is important for us to take note of as the Mavericks have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. I think these two teams are doing better right now than most thought they would be at this point of the season. Granted, we're still just getting going, but certainly the Wolves dominating like they are is a little unexpected. Either way, I'm anticipating a spirited battle here between these two Western Conference leaders, but more of a defensive one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-13-23 | Knicks v. Jazz UNDER 227.5 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Knicks/Jazz. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. New York is 13-9 overall, including 6-6 on the road, while Utah is 7-16 overall, including 6-5 at home. New York snapped a two-game slide with a 136-130 win over Toronto at home last time out. The Knicks have now seen the total go OVER in five straight, which is important for us to take note of as the Knicks have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. With much tougher games at Phoenix, the Clippers, Lakers and Nets all upcoming here on the road, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead as well. Utah has lost three straight SU/ATS after a 134-120 setback at OKC last time out, but note that the Jazz have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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12-13-23 | Creighton v. UNLV +13.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER SHOCKER on UNLV. As primarily a "situational" capper, these are the types of games I keep my eyes open for. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do think that the stage is now set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. This is part of the Jack Jones Classic. I think 8-1 Creighton takes the foot off the gas here and allows 3-4 UNLV to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Creighton is great on both sides of the ball, but everything points to a letdown in my opinion as it looks to close out non-conference play. The Rebels have fallen WAY short of expectations this year, as they already have three losses as favorites. Winning can lead to complacency and losing leads to desperation. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is indeed on UNLV. Good luck, NP |
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12-12-23 | Nuggets v. Bulls UNDER 217.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Nuggets/Bulls. Both teams have been involved in a couple of higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a defensive battle here on Tuesday finally. Chicago is just 9-15 this season, but 7-6 at home. After four straight wins, the Bulls fell 133-129 in OT at Milwaukee just last night and I definitely believe that fatigue will be a factor for the home side tonight. The Bulls play with revenge here as well after falling 123-101 at Denver in November, and note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Denver is 15-9, but just 6-8 on the road. It snapped a three-game slide with a 129-122 victory at Atlanta last time out, but with what I expect to be a much slower overall pace here in Chicago, everything points to this total staying well UNDER the number once the final horn sounds. Good luck, NP |
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12-11-23 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 130-136 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATLANTIC DIVISION TOY on the UNDER Raptors/Knicks. These divisional opponents have been involved in some higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. Toronto is just 9-13, and its coming off three straight losses a s a favorite, including a 119-106 setback at home to these very Knicks on December 1st. And while that game in Toronto did go OVER the number, note that the Raptors have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last ten in trying to avenge a divisional home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. New York is off three straight losses of its own. This one has grind-it-out defensive-battle written all over it. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-11-23 | Delaware v. Robert Morris +5 | Top | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG BOB on Robert Morris. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. The Blue Hens are 6-3 SU, including 3-1 on the road. They're 4-0 ATS. I say this string of ATS success away from friendly confines comes to an end here finally vs. 2-7 Robert Morris. I say Delaware is primed for a letdown here after its 87-80 upset win over Xavier. The Colonials are 4-4 ATS. They're competing hard despite their win/loss record, most recently falling 87-80 to Canisius. I think this is a good matchup for the home side. The Blue Hens are getting a little TOO much repsect here now after their most recent upset and while I do think the outright win is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with ROBERT MORRIS. Good luck, NP |
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12-10-23 | Grambling State +22.5 v. Washington State | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Grambling State. I'm a situational handicapper for the most part. I always look for what I feel to be undervalued, or overvalued teams based upon where the early money goes, and then I look at trends and other factor based criteria to make my decision. In this case, I think that 7-1 Washington State will get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today, to back-to-back neutral site games before the bulk of the conference schedule begins. Grambling State is just 2-6 SU, and 0-6 ATS. It's coming off five straight SU/ATS losses in a row, but that's significant to note here as the Tigers are in fact 8-2 ATS in their last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. Grambling State has been a big underdog in most of its games and it's faced some stiff competion, including back-to-back road games at Troy and Dayton. This is a few too many points to be giving up now, the play is indeed on GRAMBLING STATE. Good luck, NP |
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12-09-23 | St. Mary's +5.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Saint Mary's. While I feel the outright win is a distinct possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can here with the visiting side. The Gaels are 4-5 SU while the Rams are 9-0. CSU is ranked 13th and has already beaten Washington, Colorado, Creighton and BC. Saint Mary's snapped a two-game slide with a 70-57 win over Cleveland State last time out. The Gaels lost this game 62-60 last year as 12-point favorites. That humbling setback won't be forgotten at this point. The Rams have hit a favorable part of their schedule, but it's now Colorado State which I feel is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers. This one has "trap" written all over it. As stated off the top, I love the way this one sets up situationally for the hungry visiting side and while I do feel that the outright upset is a very real possibility, let's grab the points and expect a battle until the end. The play is SAINT MARY'S. Good luck, NP |
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12-08-23 | Illinois-Chicago v. Jacksonville State OVER 131 | Top | 55-49 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF. TOY on the OVER UIC/Jacksonville State. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games heading into this one, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks this evening. UIC is 5-3, including 1-1 on the road, while Jacksonville State is 4-5, including 2-2 at home. Jacksonville State is off the 61-59 home loss to ETSU, which is significant to take note of, as the Gamecocks have responded well in this spot for OVER bettors, having seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in which they were held to 60 or fewer points in. The Gamecocks have in fact seen the total go UNDER in all but their very first contest this year. Expect these two hungry sides to push the pace and ultimatley look for this total to blow well OVER the number as it comes down the stretch. Good luck, NP |
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12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 255.5 | Top | 128-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* CENTRAL DIVISION TOM on the UNDER Pacers/Bucks. We have some crazy high totals this year in the NBA, and in my opinion, this particular one is indeed a little TOO high. Milwaukee is 15-6 and it's seen the total go OVER in four straight. Most recently it hammered new York 146-122. It lost 126-124 to the Pacers back in November at a neutral location, and note that the Bucks have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional loss vs. an opponent. Indiana is off B2B wins, including a 122-112 victory over Boston last time out. I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well. So while the first game did fly well OVER the number, the rematch here finally sets up as more of a defensive battle in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-06-23 | Hornets v. Bulls UNDER 223 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Hornets/Bulls. Both teams have been playing to several high-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. Charlotte is just 6-12, while Chicago is only 7-14. These teams need a victory here and I'm expecting each to double down on the defensive end. Chicago has now won two straight, and while it has seen the total go OVER in five straight, note that the Bulls have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. Look for the competitive nature of this game to help in driving this one UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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12-06-23 | Massachusetts v. Towson +3 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* MASTERPIECE on Towson. Here's a great early season "situational" play. Massachusetts is 4-1 this year, but now finally hits the road for its first true road game here. Towson is 3-5 so far, but 2-0 at home. I think the home floor advantage really will matter here. The Tigers have played the tougher competition to this point as well. While I do think an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with TOWSON. Good luck, NP |
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12-04-23 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 240.5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Celtics/Pacers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. Boston is 15-4 and Indiana is 10-8. Boston is coming off three straight victories and it's seen the total go OVER in two straight. Indiana plays with revenge after falling 155-104 at Boston back on November 1st, and that's significant to note here as the Pacers have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Pacers are coming off B2B high-scoring affairs as well on the road in Miami, but now back here at home, I'm finally expecting more of a defensive effort. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-03-23 | Eastern Kentucky +4.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 69-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BATTLE on Eastern Kentucky. Here at the Diddle Arena, I'm expecting a battle until the end. EKU is 3-2 and WKU is 5-3. EKU is off the 77-76 win over Troy. It averages 91.2 PPG, while allowing 75.8. WKU is averaging 81.1 PPG, while allowing 74.4.  This really is a case of this being a bad matchup for the Hilltoppers. Look for EKU's faster-pace and high-scoring ways to keep it competitive in this contest late. Grab the points, the play is EKU. Good luck, NP |
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12-02-23 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* PACIFIC DIV. TOM on the UNDER Warriors/Clippers. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating more of a defensive battle here in what is in fact the second game of a back-to-back matchup. Golden State is 9-9 and LA is 8-10 after the Warriors at home vs. the Clippers two nights ago by a score of 120-114. Note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. With the shift in venue, expect a much more defensive affair. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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12-02-23 | CS-Northridge v. Northern Colorado -3.5 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on Northern Colorado. I like the way this one sets up for the home side. CSU Northridge is 5-3, while Northern Colorado is 3-4. The Bears are 2-1 at home. They're off a tight 74-72 loss as 4.5-point dogs at San Diego last time out. They've faced some stiff competition, including Colorado State and New Mexico State. The same can't be said for the Matadors, who somehow pulled off the 80-69 upset road win at Pacific last time out (but note that they're just 3-6 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS road win as a dog vs. an opponent.) These teams played last year and Northern Colorado won 70-63 on the road. Now at home here in 2023, I think we'll see an even bigger blowout this time around. Lay the points, the play is NORTHERN COLORADO. Good luck, NP |
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12-01-23 | Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 228.5 | Top | 108-94 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Grizz/Mavs. Memphis is 4-13, as it awaits the return of beleaguered star Ja Morant. It broke a four-game slide with a 105-91 win over Utah last time out and it'll look to keep the momentum rolling here, while also trying to avenge a 125-110 home loss to Dallas back on October 30th. That game flew well OVER the posted number, and I'm expecting a similar faster-paced affair here as well (note as well that the Grizz have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.)Â Dallas is 11-6 and it's been trading wins and losses over its last four games. Off a 121-115 win over Houston, it'll now look to snap that pattern here and keep the foot on the gas offensively for a second straight game. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, the sharp move as far as the total is concerned in my opinion is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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12-01-23 | Liberty v. College of Charleston +5.5 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on Charleston. The 6-1 Liberty Flames are getting a little TOO much respect from the oddsmakers now in my opinion. The Cougars though come in off a momentum-building 84-78 win over Kent State. So far Charleston averages 71.8 PPG, while allowing 74.8. Liberty is off its first loss of the season, falling 83-58 at FAU as a 7.5-point underdog. And with nearly 85% of the early public money backing the home side, we're going to definitely go contrarian with this wager. I think the hungry COUGARS keep it super tight until the final moments, so grab the points. Good luck, NP |
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11-30-23 | Creighton v. Oklahoma State +8 | Top | 79-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* CBB UNDERDOG TOP SIDE on Oklahoma State. Creighton is 4-1. While they've played two neutral site tournament games, the Blue Jays have yet to play a true road game this year. This is the first. Oklahoma State is 3-3 this year, including 3-1 at home. The Cowboys are coming off B2B blowout wins, posting 188 points in the process. Look for Oklahoma State's offense to be a difference-maker here at home. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is OKLAHOMA STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-30-23 | Hornets +8.5 v. Nets | Top | 129-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on Charlotte. I think Charlotte catches the Nets at the right time here. Brooklyn comes in off three straight victories, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine off three SU wins in a row. And with red hot Orlando coming to town next, the chances of the home side "looking ahead" are high as well. Charlotte does indeed play with revenge after the 133-121 setback as a two-point home dog on October 30th. Note though that the Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Off three straight ATS losses in a row, I think the hungry visiting side will, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the large spread that it's been afforded. Grab the points, the play is CHARLOTTE. Good luck, NP |
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11-29-23 | CS-Northridge v. Pacific -2.5 | Top | 80-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Pacific. CSU Northridge is 4-2, but after two straight road victories, I'm expecting it to take a step back here finally. Pacific is 4-1 overall, but 0-4 ATS in its last four. Expect that lop-sided number to change here though in this favorable home matchup. The Matadors are off the 84-48 blowout win over Mississippi Valley State and so far average 80.2 PPG, while allowing 70. Pacific avoided a near-disaster by holding on for a 68-65 OT win over Mississippi Valley State. The Tigers are averaging 67.4 PPG, while allowing 73.7. Look for the Matadors to finally take a step back here and for PACIFIC to play a full four-quarters. Lay the points. Good luck, NP |
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11-27-23 | Pelicans v. Jazz OVER 229.5 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE TOW on the OVER Pelicans/Jazz. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER in four straight after its three-game win streak was snapped here two nights ago in a 105-100 loss as a 3.5-point favorite. Note though that the Pels have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Utah snapped a four-game slide with the victory and it's now seen the total go UNDER in three straight games. Note though that the Jazz have seen the total go OVER in three of its last four after playing to three or more staright UNDERS in a row. With New Orleans on the war-path here looking to avenge the latest setback, I'm expecting a faster pace overall in the rematch. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-27-23 | Northern Illinois v. Northwestern -11.5 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE CBB GOW on Northwestern. NIU is 5-1 and Northwestern is 4-1. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS after dispatching DePaul 89-79 as a 3.5-point dog last time out. NIU has quickly become a fan favorite, but now I think it's getting too much respect here. Northwestern has faced some stiff competition. Last time out it was a 3.5-point dog and it lost 66-57 to Mississippi State in a tourney game. With Purdue coming to town next, the Wildcats can't afford to look past this opportunity. Look for NIU's perfect ATS run to finally come to an end here, as Northwestern's superior play on both ends of the court will prove to be too much for the visiting side to keep up to. Lay the points, the play is Northwestern. (additional analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-27-23 | Troy State v. Eastern Kentucky -5 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT on Eastern Kentucky. Troy is 3-3 adn EKU is 2-2. The Trojans are off the 80-67 win over Grambling State. Overall Troy averages 86.5 PPG. EKU is going to be the "hungrier" team here though after back-to-back losses. Most recently it was a 76-64 loss to Prairie View A&M last time out. Despite the losses though, note that the Colonels are still averaging 94.8 PPG this year. These are two .500 teams, but EKU has a major advantage at home. Look for the Colonels pace to be too much for the Trojans to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is EKU. Good luck, NP |
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11-26-23 | Bulls +4 v. Nets | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM on the Bulls. As primarily a situational handicapper, this is one of the types of "situations" that I'm always keeping my eyes out for. I love the way this one sets up for struggling and revenge-minded Chicago. With 80% of the public money on Brooklyn, of course, as a contrarian as well, I instantly gravitate towards Chicago in that situation. But Brooklyn is also off a highly satisfying 112-97 win here just last night over Miami and I think it'll now come out flat-footed here in the second game of the B2B. No such luxury for Chicago, which has lost three in a row SU/ATS after a 121-108 loss at Toronto last time out. Note though that the Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. They fell 109-107 at home to Brooklyn back at the start of the month as 4.5-point favorites, but note that Chicago is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. A great "situational" play makes the BULLS my 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM. Good luck, NP |
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11-25-23 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 248.5 | Top | 136-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Hawks/Wizards. Both teams have been involved in several high-scoring games this year, including against each other the last time they squared off, but everything finally points to more of a defensive affair in my opinion. Washington is just 2-13 after last night's 131-128 road loss at Milwaukee. Fatigue here in the second game of the back-to-back plays a factor for me here for Washigton. Atlanta has had a couple nights off after a 147-145 OT win over Brooklyn, but note that the Hawks have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-25-23 | Evansville v. SE Missouri State +6.5 | Top | 93-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Southeast Missouri State. Evansville is 5-0 SU/ATS, but off an 85-77 OT win over Chattanooga last night, I think the Purple Aces will have a difficult time covering this spread vs. Southeast Missouri State, which plays with revenge after a 76-57 loss at home to Evansville two weeks ago. The Redhawks snapped their three-game slide to open the season with a 70-68 win over Central Arkansas last time out, and they're 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Round 2 is going to be a lot closer, so grab the points with Southeast Missouri State. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-24-23 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Nuggets. Houston is 7-6, while Denver is 10-5. The Rockets snapped a three-game slide with a 111-91 win at Memphis last time out. But after ten straight ATS covers in a row, I think the home side is getting too much respect here vs. the defending champs, who do indeed play with revenge here after falling 107-104 as five-point favorites in mid-November (but note that Denver is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Denver is just 1-3 on this road trip. It won't be taking anything for granted tonight. I foresee a blowout of epic proportions. Lay the points, the play is DENVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-24-23 | Brown v. Delaware UNDER 141.5 | Top | 59-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Brown/Delaware. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I think this Tournament game finally sets up as more of a defensive battle. Brown is 1-4, while Delaware is 4-0. The Bears have seen the total fly OVER the number in three straight, but note that Brown has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Delaware is off the 78-67 win over Delaware State, and whiel that total did eclipse the smaller number, note that the Blue Hens previous three contests all went UNDER the number. All signs point to a much more defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-23-23 | Boise State +2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Boise State. This is the final game of the opening day of play at the ESPN Events Invitational. Virginia Tech is 3-1 after a 98-76 win over Wofford at home. Boise State is 2-1 SU after falling 85-68 to Clemson in its most recent action. So far in the early going the Hokies are averaging 83.8 PPG, while allowing 63.5. The Broncos are averaging 73.3 PPG, while allowing 66. Virginia Tech's wins have come over nobodies. In the one game they lost to South Carolina (at a neutral court), they were favored by 6.5. Boise State has already faced two tough teams in San Francisco and Clemson and I say it's the Broncos who should in fact be favored here. Grab the points, the play is indeed on BOISE STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-22-23 | Clippers v. Spurs +9 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BOOKIEKILLER on the Spurs. The Clippers are 5-7 and 1-6 on the road, while the Spurs are 3-11, including 1-7 at home. Two bad teams collide here, but I think San Antonio will put up a good fight and cover easily with the large spread that it's been afforded. San Antonio though does in fact play with double revenge here after losing 124-99 here to the Clippers two nights ago, as well as a 123-83 setback in LA back on October 29th. The Clippers return home after this for three straight, and I think they get caught looking ahead. Look for the revenge-minded home side to post, at the very least, the comfortable ATS cover. The play is SAN ANTONIO. Good luck, NP |
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11-22-23 | Ole Miss -3 v. Temple | 77-76 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Ole Miss. Ole Miss is 4-0 and Temple is 3-1. The Rebels survived a scare last time out by holding off Sam Houston 70-67, but now I expect them to be "on point" here after that near disaster. The Owls are 1-1 at home, losing 78-73 to Columbia last time out. As soon as Temple played someone half decent, it completely crumbled. It was a 12.5-point favorite over Columbia, but it got crushed. Ole Miss hasn't faced anyone difficult yet either, but it'll have its opportunities here from range finally, and I expect it to dominate in the paint as well. Lay the points, the play is OLE MISS. Good luck, NP |
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11-21-23 | Syracuse +12.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 57-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOURNEY PLAY on Syracuse. The Orange are 3-1 and the Bulldogs are 2-1. Syracuse though is 0-4 ATS, while Gonzaga is 1-1. This is the consolation part of the bracket for the Maui Invitational. Syracuse suffered its first SU loss of the season last time out by falling 73-56 to Tennessee, but note that the Orange are 3-1 ATS in their last four after a SU/ATS loss as an underdog. Gonzaga also lost its first game of the year in a 73-63 setback to Purdue. Syracuse has the personel to stretch this Zags defense and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I do see the backdoor being left open for the hungry underdogs to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is SYRACUSE. Good luck, NP |
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11-20-23 | Heat v. Bulls OVER 208.5 | Top | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOW on the OVER Heat/Bulls. Here's a great situational spot bet. Miami is 8-5 and the Bulls are 5-9 after Chicago's 102-97 victory in the opener of this two game series here in the Windy City. Note though that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs an opponent. Chicago looks to keep the foot on the gas now after snapping a three-game slide and the fact that it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight has only helped in driving this total a little lower than it normall would/should be as well. As stated off the top, a great "situational" play on the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-20-23 | Bucks v. Wizards +9.5 | 142-129 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE DESTRUCTION on the Wizards. This is a great situational play. Milwaukee is clearly the better team at 9-4. The Wizards just 2-10, including only 1-4 at home. But the Bucks are just a mediocre 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road. The Bucks are coming off four straight SU wins and three straight ATS victories, but with a much more high-profile game at East-leading Boston on Wednesday, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look-ahead," which when you add those two factors together you invariable get a "trap game." Look for the hungry home side to hang around late and to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover. Grab the points, the play is WASHINGTON. Good luck, NP |
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11-20-23 | NC-Wilmington v. Murray State +6 | 83-81 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT SUPER WINNER on Murray State. Murray State is 2-1 and UNC Wilmington is 3-0. These early season Tournament games are always interesting. With nearly 80% of the money on the Seahawks though, I definitely feel that we're getting great value here on the Raers, who enter off the 86-81 loss to WKU. While I do feel an outright win is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with MURRAY STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-19-23 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 240.5 | Top | 140-137 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Jazz/Suns. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair here finally. Phoenix is 6-6 after its 131-128 win here two nights ago. Note though that Utah has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Look for the second straight game here to be a lot more defensive-minded overall. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-19-23 | College of Charleston -7.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on Charleston. This is the seventh-place game in the Myrtle Beach Invitational. Both teams are 0-2 so far in this tournament, but Charleston is the more battle-tested and I'm expecting its offense to be too much for the Chanticleers to handle down the stretch. The Cougars most recently fell 67-60 to Wyoming, led by 19 points and eight boards from Ben Burnham in a losing cause. Coastal Carolina is hosting this tournament, but I say they're way overmatched here. The Chanticleers only had 11 total victories last year, and all signs point to another very difficult season ahead. Lay the points, the play is CHARLESTON. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-18-23 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota +3.5 | 93-81 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* UNDERDOG BLOWOUT on South Dakota. With 70% of the money on Purdue Fort Wayne, I'm naturally going to go the other way here and take South Dakota. It's not just that though, as overall this one does set up well for the hungry underdog home side. The Mastodons are 4-0, while the Coyotes are 3-1. Check out who these teams have played tough, and it's South Dakota that's endured the tougher schedule. In a contest that I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is SOUTH DAKOTA. Good luck, NP |
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11-18-23 | Seattle University v. VCU OVER 136.5 | Top | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Seattle/VCU. At the start of the season, I'm basing my picks on "situations." And for the most part I base all of my Over/Under releases (in every sport), on "situations" as well. And so this one is a great "situational" play in my opinion. Both teams are 2-1 SU. Seattle is 0-3 ATS, while VCU is 2-1 ATS. But both sides have seen the total go UNDER in all three games to this point. But that's in fact significant to note here, as Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row, while VCU has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, I think this O/U is now a bit TOO low. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-16-23 | North Dakota State v. Montana OVER 137 | Top | 78-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the OVER North Dakota State/Montana. The North Dakota State Bison are on the road to take on the Montana Grizzlies and everything points to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. North Dakota State is 2-2 after a 68-53 loss to UC Davis last time out. Overall the Bison are so far averaging 71.5 PPG, while allowing 74.8. Montana is 2-1 after a 78-65 win over UC Davis last time out. Montana is averaging 82 PPG, while allowing 66.3 in the early going. I see the Grizzlies really pushing the pace of this one, and because of that, everything does indeed point to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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11-15-23 | Georgetown v. Rutgers OVER 134.5 | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Georgetown/Rutgers. Georgetown is 1-1, and Rutgers is 2-1. So far the Scarlet Knights have seen the total go UNDER the number in their first three games, but I'm finally expecting more of a wide-open offensive affair in this one. Rutgers lost its first game of the year to Princeton, but comes in off B2B victories. The Scarlet Knights have been playing great defense, but the Hoyas outside shooting will keep them honest in this one. Expect these team's offensive shooting numbers to improve in this one and expect this total to eclipse this low number as the game comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-15-23 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 227.5 | Top | 128-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Bucks/Raptors. These teams are very familiar with each other. Each had yesterday off and is raring to go. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a faster-paced affair, and one that goes well over the posted number once it's all said and done. These teams played here on November 1st, and the Raptors won 130-111, the total sailing well OVER the number. We have a higher total for this game, but I'm still expecting a similar final combined scored as what we saw in that earlier contest. And finally note, the Bucks have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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11-14-23 | Southern Utah v. Utah State -15.5 | Top | 84-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE BEATDOWN on Utah State. Southern Utah is 1-1 SU and 1-0 ATS, while Utah State is 1-1 SU, and 0-1 ATS. Southern Utah averaged 82.8 PPG last year, while allowing 74.7. The Aggies averaged 78.2 PPG, while conceding just 69.9. The difference though is the level of competition. After a somewhat lacklustre start, I'm looking for Utah State to take advantage of this matchup as I expect its defense to be the difference-maker in the end. Lay the points, the play is UTAH STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-14-23 | Mavs v. Pelicans +3.5 | Top | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Pelicans. Dallas has won four of its last five, including two in a row after a 136-124 win here two nights ago. New Orleans comes in on the other end of the spectrum, eager to snap a five SU/ATS losing streak. Note though that NO is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Pels have also done well in a revenge role, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Dallas has a game in Washington tomorrow night, so I say it gets caught peaking ahead to that one as well. While the outright is possible, grab as many points as you can. The play is NEW ORLEANS. Good luck, NP |
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11-13-23 | Cavs v. Kings UNDER 222 | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Cavs/Kings. These two teams are in dire need of a victory and because of that I'm expecting a very defensive affair. Cleveland is 4-5 and Sacramento is 4-4. The Cavaliers are off a 118-110 road win at Golden State, but note that Cleveland has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog in its previous outing. The Kings have now won back-to-back games after a 105-98 victory over OKC last time out. Sacramento won 106-95 over Cleveland the last time these teams played, and all signs point to a similar final combined score here as well in my opinion. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-13-23 | Michigan v. St. John's -2.5 | Top | 89-73 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on St. John's. This is part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games. The Wolverines are 2-0 after pulling away for a 92-62 win over Youngstown State on Friday. They're also 2-0 ATS. The Red Storm are 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS after a 90-74 win over Stony Brook. The moral of the story here? Clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched. St. John's has had a week off to prepare for this one, where Michigan played on Friday. Look for the more rested side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. Lay the short points, the play is ST. JOHN'S. Good luck, NP |
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11-12-23 | UC-Davis +4.5 v. Montana | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG BOB on UC Davis. UC Davis is 2-0 SU, and 0-2 ATS. Montana is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever of these equally-matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. Last year Montana averaged 69.3 PPG, while the Aggies averaged 74.8. Elija Pepper and Ty Johnson are a difficult matchup issue for the home side here. Look for UC DAVIS to, at the very least, keep this one comfortably close down the stretch and grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP |
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11-12-23 | Pistons v. Bulls UNDER 217.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Pistons/Bulls. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a much more defensive battle here. Detroit is just 2-8, while Chicago is only 3-6. These are two division rivals in need of a victory and I'm expecting that to translate into a very defensive affair. Chicago hasn't played since a 116-115 OT setback at home to Phoenix four days ago, so its rested and ready to roll on this road trip. Detroit won 118-102 at home vs. the Bulls, so Chicago also plays with revenge here, and note that it's seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Expect an all out war until the end and for this total to ultimately stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Siena +12 v. Richmond | Top | 48-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILER on Siena. Both teams are 1-0. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do absolutely believe that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Siena held on for a tighter-than-expected 73-71 win over Holy Cross in its opener, while Richmond rolled over VMI 93-71. The Saints had three players score in double-digits, while Richmond had two. The lack of scoring depth for the Spiders is something they'll have to figure out before the end of the season if they want to be true contendors. Either way, this is a few too many points in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is SIENA. Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Arkansas State +2 v. Bowling Green | Top | 75-81 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG SUPER SHOCKER on Arkansas State. Arkansas State comes in as the hungrier team here after falling to Wisconsin in its opener. Bowling Green is 1-0, but its victory came over lowly Chicago State. In the 105-76 loss to the Badgers, Freddy Hicks was superb in a losing cause with 21 point and seven boards and I think he'll be a matchup issue for the Green Falcons today. The 70-41 win over Chicago State clearly has to be taken with a grain of salt, with Marcus Hill leading the way with 18 points and five boards. The Red Wolves still shot 40.7 percent in their loss to Wisconsin, and this Green Falcons' defense isn't anything close to the Badgers' unit. Either way, while I do think the outright win is possible obviously, my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can with ARKANSAS STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Kings. I like the Kings to find a way to get the job done here and win this game at home. OKC has won two in a row and covered in three straight. This is the Thunder's first road game in two weeks though and I think it'll struggle here vs. this motivated and good home team. The Kings do definitey play better at home. They're 3-4 overall, but 2-1 at home. The Thunder are 2-0 on the road, but both victories came at the start of the year. With a much more high-profile game at Phoenix up next, I say OKC gets caught "looking ahead" here as well. Look for the hungrier home side to punch a "W" into the win column here and play SACRAMENTO. Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Monmouth +16 v. West Virginia | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Monmouth. I like Monmouth to comfortably sneak in through the back door. WVU is 1-0 after a relatively easy 67-59 win over Missouri State, while Monmouth is 0-1 after a 72-61 setback at George Mason. Quinn Slazinski had 18 points for the Mountaineers in the victory, while Xander Rice had 21 points for Monmouth in a losing cause. Last year WVU averaged 76 PPG, while allowing 70.9, while the Hawks averaged 61.7 and allowing 74.7. Monmouth though is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a SU/ATS road loss as an underdog in its previous contest. This is a few too many points in my estimation. Grab the points, the play is indeed on MONMOUTH. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Youngstown State +14 v. Michigan | Top | 62-92 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHOCKER on Youngstown State. Am I suggesting that Youngstown State will win this game outright?! I am not! But I do think it'll be a lot closer down the stretch than what this lop-sided spread is suggesting. Last year the Penguins averaged 81.9 PPG, while allowing 72.5. They're 0-1 after a tight 72-62 loss at UL Lafayette as 4.5-point underdogs. Michigan rolled over UNCA 99-74 as a ten-point favorite. Last year the Wolverines averaged 73.4, while allowing 69.6. These teams have no recent history together and the bottom line is I believe the visiting side will come in under the radar here and give the Wolverines everything they can handle. Grab the points, the play is YOUNGSTOWN STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-09-23 | Florida A&M +26 v. Nebraska | Top | 54-81 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE SHOCKER on Florida A&M. At the start of the season, in any sport, I employ a few different strategies, as my systems don't really kick into full gear until at least a week or so of results have been posted. Am I suggesting an outright win here? Of course not! But I do think that Nebraska will take the foot off the gas in the second half and allow Florida A&M more than enough room to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. I'm a situational handicapper, and this is a great situational play in my opinion. FAMU is 0-1after a huimbling 105-54 setback at Creighton. It's being undervalued here now though. Nebraska is 1-0 SU/ATS after its 84-52 win over Lindenwood. But with a neutral site tourney game vs. Oregon State up next, I think the home side gets caught "looking ahead." Grab the points, the play is FLORIDA A&M. (more analysis available.)Â Good luck, NP |
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11-09-23 | Bucks v. Pacers UNDER 241.5 | Top | 124-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* CENTRAL DIV. TOY on the UNDER Bucks/Pacers. Here's a fantastic situational play in my opinion. Neither team has been involved in many defensive affairs this season, but I expect tonight's total to stay well below this posted sky-high number. The Pacers have now seen the total go OVER in five straight after last night's 134-118 home win over Utah. Note though that Indiana has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. Milwaukee has seen the total go OVER in five of seven this year, including in yetreday's 120-118 win over the Pistons. It was a much tougher battle than expected and with each side now playing the second game of the back-to-back, I'm expecting these normally super-efficient offenses to be less so this evening. This number is indeed high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-08-23 | Southern +18.5 v. UNLV | Top | 85-71 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Southern. Southern travels to UNLV to take on the Rebels and in no way shape or form am I suggesting that the Jaguars will win this game straight-up, but I do think that the overall situation/conditions point to this one being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Southern lost 108-75 at TCU as a 27.5-point underdog, unable to cover with the large spread. The Jaguars get another large spread here on Wednesday as well, but with that first game under their belt, I think we'll see another solid overall performance from the visiting side. Southern made this trip here last year and lost this game 66-56 as a 14-point dog and all signs point to a similar final discrepancy in the outcome of this one here on Wednesday as well. Grab the points, the play is indeed on SOUTHERN. Good luck, NP |
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11-08-23 | Pistons v. Bucks UNDER 229.5 | Top | 118-120 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Pistons/Bucks. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair here finally on Tuesday. Detroit is just 2-6 after a 120-109 loss at home to Golden State just last night. Fatigue will play a factor here for sure in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Milwaukee has seen the total fly OVER the number in three of its last four, including in last night's come-from-behidn 129-125 road win at Brooklyn. With each team coming in with "heavy legs," expect this total to stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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11-07-23 | Auburn +2 v. Baylor | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on Auburn. These teams haven't played since January 30th, 2021 and Baylor won 84-72. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched, as this game is in fact being played on a neutral court. Baylor averaged 77 PPG last year, while conceding 70.3. The Bears struggled on the glass, ranked 283rd in the country with 29.9 per game. Baylor was sharp from behind the line, 18th in the nation with 9.3 per game. But Auburn ranked 17th best in country in defending the three-ball, allowing just 5.6 per contest, and SIXTH-BEST in three-point percentage allowed at 28.8 percent. Overall the Tigers averaged 72.8 PPG, while conceding 67.7. I say defense wins the day in this early season tournament action. Grab the points, the play is AUBURN. Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Sam Houston State v. Pacific | 64-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Sam Houston State. With over 75% of the early public money on Pacific, we're definitely going the other way on this one and taking Sam Houston State. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Portland State +7 v. Air Force | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Portland State. With over 75% of the early public money on Air Force, we're definitely going the other way and taking Portland State. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Abilene Christian +10.5 v. Oklahoma State | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Albiene Christian. With nearly 80% of the early public money on Oklahoma State, we're going the other way here and taking Albiene Christian. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Spurs v. Pacers UNDER 239 | Top | 111-152 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Spurs/Pacers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games, but I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair here finally on Monday. San Antonio has seen the total go OVER in three straight after a 123-116 OT loss to the Raptors at home, but note that the Spurs have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. The Pacers have also seen the total go OVER in three straight after a tough 125-124 loss to Charlotte last time out, but that's also significant to note as Indiana has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Look for these young clubs to come in a bit flat-footed to open this contest and ultimately expect this total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP |
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11-05-23 | Warriors v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Cavaliers. The Warriors stumbled out of the gate last season, but not this year, as they come to town at 5-1 and playing great overall. The Cavaliers have had to deal with some minor injury issues to start the year, and they enter at 2-4. Mission accomplished for the Warriors, but I say they finally get caught looking ahead here to their game at Detroit tomorrow night. That's followed by a game at Denver. Golden State is 2-0 SU in its last two, but 0-2 ATS. It's barely holding onto the edge that it had, and I think it finally collapses here vs. the hungry home side. Cleveland hits the road for four straight after this game, putting added importance onto this Sunday night contest. Lay the points, the play is the CAVALIERS. Good luck, NP |
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11-04-23 | Hawks +3 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Hawks. I think this is a great "situational" play. Atlanta is 3-2 and New Orleans is 4-1. Each team has been playing great of late, but note that the Pels hit the road after this for a three-game trip, starting at Denver. I say the home side finally gets caught "looking ahead" here, and I believe the visitors catch New Orleans at a great time. This is a "trap" for New Orleans, and ATL will be looking to get its trip started off with a slight upset. In a contest that I see coming "down to the wire," I'm grabbing the points. The play is ATLANTA. Good luck, NP |
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11-03-23 | Grizzlies -145 v. Blazers | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Grizzlies moneyline. Two teams struggling, one more than the other. Memphis is looking to snap an ugly 0-5 start to the year, and back-to-back games in the Pacific Northwest against the 2-3 Blazers is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion. The Grizz are off a 133-109 loss at Utah last night, while the Blazers are off a second staright win, beating Detroit 110-101 on the road Wednesday. Now returning home, this is a classic "letdown/look-ahead" spot for Portland. And conversely, it's all hands on deck for the winless Grizz. Clearly without Ja Morant in the line-up, the Grizz are lost. But here's a game that they can come together and finally win. Both teams are dealing with plenty of injury issues as well right now, but situationally this one sets up really well for MEMPHIS in my opinion. Good luck, NP |
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11-02-23 | Spurs v. Suns UNDER 227 | Top | 132-121 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION TOY on the UNDER Spurs/Suns. As I mentioned in the promo for this pick, we have now reached the point of the season where we can use past data to help us try and predict the future. As primarily a situational handicapper, this particular play falls right into my wheelhouse. These teams just played here on Halloween and the Spurs pulled off the outright 115-114 upset at 7-point dogs. The total went OVER the number of 226. Note though that Phoenix has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. The Spurs have seen the total go OVER in three of their four games, but with a few nights off before a game vs. Toronto on Friday, I say this young side comes out flat here off their big upset victory. When you add it all up, this O/U line is indeed a bit TOO high this time around. The play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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11-01-23 | Clippers v. Lakers -5 | Top | 125-130 | Push | 0 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. The Clippers are 3-1 and the Lakers are 2-2. Will the addition of James Harden make the Clippers a better team? Of course, but it doesn't mean that there will be unbelievable chemistry right off the bat. Clearly, it may never work out either. Either way, I think this is a great spot for the Lakers to grab the first game of the year between the two clubs here in LA. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS so far, but I expect that streak to end. The Clippers are 3-1 ATS. But the Clippers are coming off a 118-102 win here over Orlando just last night, and fatigue will for sure be an issue here. Both clubs have a few nights off after this before Eastern road swings, but I say that the Clippers come in a bit fatigued, and I expect the Lakers to smell the blood in the water and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, the play is the LAKERS. Good luck, NP |
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10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs +3 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM on the Cavaliers. Both teams come in at 1-2. The Cavaliers played without Donovan Mitchell in their most recent 125-113 setback here at home to the Pacers are 3.5-point dogs, but I believe they'll finally bounce back here, whether their super-start suits up or not. This is the opener of a home and home set, so that puts added importance onto this one for the Cavs. The Knicks looked terrible in their most recent 96-87 loss at New Orleans. New York so far is living and dying with the three-ball, but I believe the Cavs will bounce back defensively here at home after their abnormally bad performance last time out. With a game at home tomorrow vs. this very same team, I believe the visitors do indeed also get caught "looking ahead" here. Cleveland has big bodies that limit second chance points. Overall they're a great defensive team, especially on the perimeter. With New York having difficulties scoring down low early in the season, that leaves the door open for a possible outright win here. But I say whether Mitchell plays or not, this highly-motivated home side will, at the very least, keep this one tight enough to cover with the handful of points it's been afforded in this matchup. Grab the points, the play is indeed on the CAVALIERS. Good luck, NP |
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10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 231 | Top | 130-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF TOM on the OVER Warriors/Pelicans. Both teams have played to only UNDERS so far to open the season, but I'm finally anticipating more of a wide-open offensive affair here. Golden State is 2-1, and New Orleans is 2-0. The Warriors have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Look for defense to take a back seat as each team pushes the pace and this total flies OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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10-29-23 | Lakers v. Kings OVER 234 | Top | 127-132 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the OVER Lakers/Kings. Two teams that are familiar with each other play for the first time this season and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks. The Lakers are 1-1, and they've so far seen each of their first two games go UNDER the number. They're coming off the quality 100-95 victory over Phoenix, after falling 119-107 at Denver on Opening Night. The Kings are 1-1 after beating Utah 130-114, and then falling flat in a 122-114 revenge scenario at home vs. Golden State last time out. So far the early numbers would point more to a lower-scoring game, but why then the higher total here set by the oddsmakers?! Clearly, let's not read too much into any early results. Look for this higher-paced affair to eclipse the posted numbers sooner, rather than later. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP |
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10-28-23 | Bulls v. Pistons OVER 218 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Bulls/Pistons. Both teams have been involved in lower-scoring games to open the season, but I'm anticipating not much defense played here, and a much more wide-open pace overall than what this O/U line is suggesting. Chicago fell in its opener by a score of 124-104 at home to OKC, then held a players only meeting the next day. The Bulls won in OT against the Raptors last night by a score of 104-103. The total amazingly failed to sail OVER the posted number despite playing the extra frame. Now on the road for the first time this year, I think Chicago's defense takes a hit here on the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Detroit is 1-1 as well after a 111-99 win at Charlotte last night. The Pistons finally return home to play and while their first two games went UNDER the number, I think playing in front of the home town crowd will have the opposite effect as far as the total is concerned here on Saturday. Note that the Pistons have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS road win as a dog in which they held their opponent to 99 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP |
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10-27-23 | Raptors v. Bulls -130 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* MONEYLINE BOOKIEKILLER on the Bulls. The Raptors barely got past the Wolves in their 97-94 home win to open the season. Dennis Schroder actually led the team with 22 points. But overall Toronto shot just 40 percent from both the floor and from range. That won't get it done here vs. this motivated Chicago side which fell flat in a 124-104 blowout home loss to Oklahoma City. Immediately after the Bulls had a players only meeting. Chicago has its full line-up healthy and ready to go, and I'm expecting a completely different vibe from the "get go" here for the Bulls. This is Toronto's first game on the road, and it looked pretty shaky in Game 1. The Raptors then return home to face their heated rival, the 76ers tomorrow night, so it's also a "look ahead" spot. Either way you cut it, look for CHICAGO to figure out a way to win this game STRAIGHT UP. Good luck, NP |
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10-26-23 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 225 | Top | 117-118 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF MONTH on the UNDER 76ers/Bucks. This is the first game of a NBA on TNT Double-Header and I'm expecting a bit of awkward offensive play, combined with above average defensive play will ultimately result in a lower-scoring affair. Philadelphia has reached the second round of the playoffs in five of the last six seasons, while the Bucks landed guard Damian Lillard. I just see chemistry being an issue for each offense with new faces in starters roles. A great situational play on the UNDER. Good luck, NP |
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