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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Colorado | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on Nebraska. Colorado pulled off a 45-42 upset win over TCU last week, and the entire World has lost its mind. Deion and Shedeur Sanders looked great in that game, but let's not overreact here. Sanders finished with 510 passing yards and four TDs and 565 offensive yards. Nebraska wet the bed in its 13-10 loss to Minnesota last week. It had a 7-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Once again, let's not overreact too much to early results here, either negative or positive, after Week 1. On paper Nebraska is the "better" team. And I expect a big bounce-back for the visiting side here in Week 2, and a letdown from Colorado. Grab the points, the play is NEBRASKA. Good luck, NP |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Duke. There are always super high expectations for the Clemson Tigers. If they aren't in the Championship game, then essentially the season is viewed as a failure, despite how well the team actually did. But expectations are also high in Duke this year after the Blue Devils finished 9-4 and a Bowl win under first-year head coach Mike Elko. Riley Leonard won't be intimidated here by Clemson, as he's already battle-tested after last season's stellar performance, throwing for 2,967 yards to go along with 20 TDs and six INTs. Cade Klubnik won't have a "cakewalk" time here on the road. Yes, the Tigers are loaded everywhere and I'm not predicting an outright win here or anything for Duke, but the Blue Devils' strength on defense was in their secondary. They also have two great safeties in Brandon Johnson and Jaylen Stinson. In a contest that I see being competitive late, I'm grabbing the points. The play is DUKE. Good luck, NP |
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09-03-23 | Northwestern +6.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* WINNER on Northwestern. With so much action going on, I'm really busy and just don't have the time to write out my full analysis for every pick. So I'll be keeping it succinct a lot throughout the season. The bottom line with this pick is that the Wildcats will for sure be an improved team this season. The addition of QB Ben Bryant was significant. Last year with Cinncy he had a 21:7 TD:INT. Rutgers' QB Gavin Wimasatt struggled last year. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points. The play is NORTHWESTERN. Good luck, NP |
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09-02-23 | Toledo +9.5 v. Illinois | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 126 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Toledo. Toledo finished 9-5 last year, and it'll be gunning for the outright upset here. Toledo has the big men to grind with Illinois in the trenches, and a solid ground game to keep the sticks moving. But overall, this is a super tough defense that finished No. 1 in the MAC last year. The secondary in particular is deep and experienced. Illinois will have to deal with QB Dequan Finn as well, and its weakness on defense is defending the pass. I expect Toldedo to hang around late, and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Good luck, NP |
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09-02-23 | Northern Illinois +9.5 v. Boston College | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 118 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Northern Illinois. Northern Illiois and Boston College each are coming off 3-9 campaigns. The Eagles averaged 17.8 PPG, while allowing 30.3. The Huskies were more competitive, averaging 27.3 PPG, while allowing 32.8. BC was favored by at least 9.5-points on one occassion last year, and the Eagles were unable to cover. NIU on the other hand went l-0 as an underdog 9.5 or more points. I just don't trust BC to cover this large spread. Grab the points, the play is NORTHERN ILLINOIS. Good luck, NP |
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09-02-23 | Fresno State +3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 39-35 | Win | 100 | 118 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Fresno State. Purdue has a new head coach in Ryan Walters, who was the defensive coordinator for Illinois for the past two years. A new face under center for the Boilermakers, as Aidan O'Connell is out, and Hudson Card is in, coming over from Texas after playing four games. I say there's going to be some chemistry issues out of the gate. For Fresno State though is loaded with talent from transfers coming in. After starting the year 1-4, the Bulldogs rattled off nine straight wins. While I think the outright win is possible, give me the points. The play is FRESNO STATE. Good luck, NP |
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08-31-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +1.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Dodgers. This is an interesting series between the league's best teams. For me though, in a contest that I could easily go either way, and which I envision being decided late or even in extras, the runline option at this price for the red hot Dodgers here at home is just too good to turn down. And I'd feel that way with essentially anyone that LA put on the mound. I'm not delusional in thinking that Lance Lynn's eye-popping numbers since he came over to the Dodgers are unsustainable over the long-term, but the bottom line here is that I feel the value is still way too good to turn down by getting the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Great value play here on LA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -6 | Top | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GAME OF MONTH on Utah. Cam Rising is hurt for the Utes to open up the season after suffering an injury in the Rose Bowl last year, but the offensive line is no joke for Utah. The Gators have a weak offensive attack, and will be concentrating on the run today. Special teams and defense will put Utah in fantastic field position as well all game. In fact, many believe this will be Kyle Whittingham's strongest defense of all time. The home side won't need Rising to rise past the Gators here. Lay the points, the play is UTAH. Good luck, NP |
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08-29-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the D-Backs runline. These teams were both really hot coming into this series, and LA managed the 7-4 victory as a -145 favorite. Arizona won't be rolling over here obviously, I think the revenge factor comes into play here. And clearly these starters are very evenly matched. This starting pitching matchup is an "Any Given Sunday" type of scenario, in that it would be easy to write a convincing argument for either of these guys to win this game. And so in a case like that, I invariably feel that the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. And in this case, getting Merrill Kelly and the D-Backs with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance on the runline option at this price is just too attractive to turn down in the end. The play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP |
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08-27-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING DOMINATION on the Phillies runline. I'm not smelling any upsets here. The Cards look completely dejected, and the Phillies are continuing to get stronger with each passing game. It's in fact very reminiscent of last year at this time for the Phillies, where they caught fire and rode the wave to the World Series. They've outscored the Cards 19-3 over the first two games, and all signs point to another blowout here in my opinion. The Cards hand the ball to the volatile Drew Rom (0-1, 14.73 ERA), who is set to make his second career start after allowing eight runs over three innings in an 11-1 loss to the lowly Pirates on Monday. The home side counters with veteran Aaron Nola (11-8, 4.49), who comes in off a strong performance, allowing two runs over seven innings in a 10-4 victory over the Giants last Monday. Nola has once again been much better at home than on the road this year, posting a 3.49 ERA in 11 home starts. Look for Philadelphia to continue the HIT PARADE and lay the price with confidence. Good luck, NP |
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08-19-23 | Cowboys v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Seahawks. I like Seattle to keep the foot on the gas here at home vs. "America's team" and to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. The Cowboys are just going to go through the motions once again in my estimation after coming up short at home vs. Jacksonville in last week's 28-23 setback. Dak Prescott isn't scheduled to see any time, and if he does, it'll be for only a series. Regardless, this Dallas offense looks impotent without Prescott directing the show, and now dealing with the absence of Ezekiel Elliot. Seattle fell behind Minnesota early last week, but then put the foot on the gas and won 24-13. QB Drew Lock had 191 passing yards, two TD's and an INT. Dallas on the other hand turned the ball over three times last week. With Seattle expected to work more of its starters into the rotation in Week 2, I'm expecting a complete blowout here. Lay the points, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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08-19-23 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL GOY on the Mariners runline. The Mariners have won four straight, including the opener of this one by a score of 2-0. I think the visiting side continues to build momentum here and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is a possibility, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.80 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, and he's 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA over eight career starts vs. the Astros. He'll be opposed by Framber Valdez (9-8, 3.31), who has struggled of late, posting an elevated 5.52 ERA with four dingers allowed over his last two starts. He's had plenty of success vs. the Mariners in the past, going 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA, but this is a case of that being "then," and this being "now." Seattle is 6-2 vs. the Astros this year, including 4-1 at Minute Maid Park. Usually, I like to stand in front of winning streaks or losing streaks, but in this case, the momentum that the Mariners have created right now is very real. I'm laying the price here for SEATTLE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-19-23 | Newcastle United +1 v. Manchester City | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 94 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* EPL GOM on Newcastle United on the spread option (+1). Newcastle United is off the commanding 5-1 win over Aston Villa and with upcoming games vs. Liverpool and Brighton and Hove Albion, I think it'll, at the very least, be able to cover with the spread option. Newcastle United features an awesome player in Callum Wilson, and I think he'll keep his team in form vs. Erling Haaland and company. This won't be a cake-walk whatsoever for Man City, who got the better of Burnely 3-0 in its opener. Everything points to a competitive affair. The play is NEWCASTLE UNITED on the SPREAD OPTION. Good luck, NP |
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08-16-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orioles on the RUNLINE. While I do think an outright victory is possible, I think the Orioles with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price is the way to go. Baltimore took the opener by a score of 4-1, and then the Padres responded with a 10-3 victory yesterday. We have two evenly matched starters going H2H here, as Baltimore turns to Dean Kremer (11-4, 4.50 ERA), while the home side counters with Blake Snell (9-8, 2.63.) In a contest that I think will be decided late (or even in extra innings), I'm going to lay the price for BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP |
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08-15-23 | Astros v. Marlins +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH on the MARLINS RUNLINE. I had a play on the Marlins on the runline in their 5-1 outright win here over the Astros, and while I do feel that they have a legitimate shot at winning tonight's contest as well, in the end my official call will be to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance for what I feel to be a very good price. Clearly, Christian Javier (8-2, 4.36 ERA) has the advantage here on paper over counterpart Johnny Cueto (0-3, 5.33), but I believe that the momentum that the Fish are currently riding is very real. Note as well that Cueto is 5-6 with a highly-repsectable 3.14 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Astros. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-14-23 | Astros v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOW on the MARLINS RUNLINE. Both teams are in the hunt for a wildcard spot. The Marlins just took two of three from the Yankees over the weekend and I think they offer great value to keep that momentum rolling here. The Astros have won 12 of 19 games, but I think this starting pitching matchup is very evenly matched, as Houston turns to Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA), who in his only other start vs. the Marlins last year gave up four runs over six innings in a loss. He's coming off a fortunate no-decision as well vs. the Orioles last Tuesday, allowing six runs off eight hits over seven innings. Braxton Garrett (6-3, 4.08) gets the call for Miami here and the Marlins are 17-5 in his stats this season, most recently winning their third straight behind him in a 3-2 win over the Reds last week, he gave up two runs over six frames. The outright is possible, but the price is right here to take MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-14-23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Manchester United -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Manchester United -1.5. These two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Wolverhampton finished 13th last year, while Man U was third. Wolverhampton did beat Rennes 3-1 in its final tune-up, but now the level of competition gets considerably higher. The Red Devils finished third in the table, and overall they've impressed under the direction of Erik ten Hag. Man U played to an unimpressive 1-1 draw with Athletic Bilbao last time out, clearly getting caught looking ahead to this one. If recent history is any precedence though, then Man U has to be loving it chances today, as it's lost only one of its last 12 matches against Wolverhampton in EPL action. Also note that Wolverhampton has dropped its last two EPL Openers. I say a third straight is in store here, as I expect MANCHESTER UNITED to not only win this game, but will do so in blowout fashion. Good luck, NP |
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08-13-23 | 49ers -3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the 49ers. The bottom line here is that San Fran has a QB battle going on, and it will throughout the preseason. Brock Purdy is expected to be the No. 1 guy, but there will be a fight for the No. 2 spot between Trey Lance and Sam Darnold. The 49ers also play to win the preseason, as Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 in his last ten preseason games. On the flip-side, Raiders' coach Josh McDaniels is just 6-6 in his preseason career. Las Vegas is thin, especially at the QB position where its backup is 37-year old Brian Hoyer. I'm banking on San Fran not only winning this game, but doing so by a sizeable margin. The play is the 49ERS. Good luck, NP |
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08-12-23 | Dream +1.5 v. Sparks | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dream. I think this is a great "situational" play. Atlanta is 15-14 and now third in the East ater dropping three of its last four. Most recently the Dream fell 68-67 at Seattle as five-point favorites. But with a super tough game at Las Vegas tomorrow night, Atlanta simply can't afford to "look past" the 11-18 Sparks. LA has snapped a three-game slide by winning two in a row as an underdog, but after six straight ATS covers, I believe the home side is now a tiny bit overvalued by the bookmakers now. The Sparks have a seven-game break after this, and I believe the home side gets caught "looking ahead."Â This one simply means more to ATLANTA. Good luck, NP |
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08-11-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Mariners | 2-9 | Loss | -168 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOOD-BATH on the Orioles. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two hot teams here. The Orioles lost the first two vs. the Astros, then bounced back and won the finale yesterday. I was on the correct side of each of those games. Each team is in a fight for a spot in the playoffs, and each comes in equally as motivated here. The starting pitching matchup in this one is even, as Baltimore goes with Kyle Gibson (11-6, 4.50 ERA), while the home side counters with Luis Castillo (7-7, 3.21.) Yes, the Mariners are 33-26 at home, but the Orioles are 35-21 on the road. They've been consistently under-rated this year, and that's the case here in this opening game. I'm laying the price and taking BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-10-23 | Vikings +4.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC GOW on the Vikings. Every team in the NFL always enters the season with BIG hopes, and that's definitely the case here for both Minnesota and Seattle. Seattle is looking to build off a decent season considering that it had to move on from Russel Wilson and the Hawks'll be out to prove that wasn't a fluke with an even better season in 2023. And Minnesota is looking to replace Pro Bowl Running Back Dalvin Cook and attempt to return to the top of the NFC North. The Vikes still have Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson and they're still part of a very winnable division. Without Aaron Rodgers to deal with, Minnesota will be trying to duplicate last year's 13-4 record. But that'll be easier said than done for Minnesota, which lost Cook and a bunch of other talent. So that really means that the Vikes are going to take this three-game preseason seriously I think, as they look to fill up some really important positions on both sides of the field. Jefferson was named the NFL's Offensive Player Of The Year last season, but neither Cousins or Jefferson is expected to see much, or ANY time at all in this one. As I said, Minnesota is definitely looking to fill some key positions, and that means that there's going to be plenty of competition. The defense was terrible last year for Minnesota. It gave up 31 points in a home playoff loss to the Giants last season, so the Vikes brought in former Miami Head Coach Brian Flores to try and help. On the other side of the field, Geno Smith was fantastic obviously for the Seahawks last year. He won Comeback Player Of the Year by finishing with 4,282 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns and he led the Hawks to a 9-8 record and a playoff berth before then losing to the 49ers in the Wildcard round. But just like the Vikes, the Seahawks aren't expected to play Smith much at all, or IF at all and that's the same for Running Back Kenneth Walker III and the rest of the starting offense. Seattle's weak point last season was on the defensive end, and often in the preseason teams work on their weaknesses from the previous season and that will be the case I think for Pete Carrol and his staff this year. If this was a regular season game, I'd be leaning heavily to the Seahawks, but as I said you can throw out all the regular season expectations right now. I think the Vikes have more to work on, but that's a good thing in this case! Outright is possible, but the official is to grab as many points as you can. Grab the points, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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08-10-23 | Lynx v. Fever +3.5 | Top | 73-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on the Fever. I like the way this one sets up for the home side from a situational stand-point. Indiana is just 7-22. It's not a good team, but this is a good spot. Off three straight SU losses, and six straight ATS losses, the value has now swung to the Fever, who are 8-2 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU losses in a row. Indiana plays with revenge as well after a 90-83 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point dog back in July. That's also significant to note, as the Fever are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Minnesota broke a two-game slide with an 88-79 win at Chicago to move to 14-15, but with four straight games vs. Western Conference opponents after this (Seattle twice, followed by Dallas twice), I say the visitors also get caught "looking ahead." As stated off the top, a great situational play in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is INDIANA.  Good luck, NP |
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08-10-23 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on the ORIOLES RUNLINE. After taking the first two games of this series, and with a home series starting tomorrow vs. the Angels, I believe Houston will get caught looking ahead. Baltimore is hungry for revenge and to stop the bleeding. So far in this series Houston has had the upper-hand in the starting pitching department, but that's now not the case here on Thursday afternoon, with the Astros going with Hunter Brown (8-7, 4.07 ERA) and the Orioles countering with Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.61.) Give me Kremer at home here in this revenge bounce-back spot. That said, ultiately I'm laying the price for the exra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-09-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUNLINE. I like standing in front of trains and predicting when a team will break a losing streak, or have an extended winning streak finally come to an end. And that's going to be the case here today in two different scenarios in my opinion. The D-Backs have lost seven straight, and their starting pitcher today Merrill Kelly is 0-10 lifetime vs. the Dodgers. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the home side on the runline option. All good things come to an end, and all losing streaks also end eventually as well. I like Arizona to snap its seven-game slide today, and Kelly (9-5, 3.21 ERA) certainly won't be lacking for motivation either. The Dodgers have won three straight, but with a four-game series at home vs. the Rockies starting tomorrow, there's reason to believe that this visiting side could get caught "looking ahead." No such luxury for the super desperate D-Backs though, who will be risking life and limb today to try and snap the slide vs. Bryce Miller (6-2, 4.26), who I believe will be overmatched by his hungry counterpart this evening. Lay this reasonable mid-sized price and grab the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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08-04-23 | Liberty -10 v. Lynx | Top | 76-66 | Push | 0 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Liberty. This is a great "situational" play on New York. The Liberty are No. 1 in the East, but they've failed to cover the spread in three straight, despite going 2-1 SU. Note though that New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. The Liberty also play with revenge after falling 88-83 at home to Minnesota just last week as 13.5-point favs, which is also significant to note, as New York is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Minnesota's three-game win streak was snapped in a 79-69 loss at Connecticut last time out and I say it's going to stumble here as well. Lay the points, the play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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08-04-23 | Braves v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Cubs on the runline. Two hot teams collide in Chicago today, and in what will be a highly anticipated series, I'm going to grab the home side on the runline option. For argument's sake, I'm going to classify these starters as a "wash," as Max Fried (2-1, 2.08 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side turns to Kyle Hendricks (4-5, 3.49.)Â Fried returns finally to the Braves rotation, and while had a succesful rehab, there's no question that he's being thrown to the wolves here facing this red hot Cubs line-up. The outright is possible, the value here for sure is Chicago on the runline option. Good luck, NP |
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08-03-23 | Jets +1.5 v. Browns | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 243 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* PRESEASON GAME OF THE YEAR on the Jets. Motivation is a big factor to consider when betting preseason NFL. Different coaching staffs have different ideas on how to approach the preseason. For some it's a waste of time, other take it super seriously. Note though that the Jets are unbeaten (5-0-1) under Robert Saleh's direction. Starting QB's typically only see one or two series, before making way for the primary backup for the next stretch. DeShaun Watson went just 1 for 5 in his first preseason outing for the Browns last year, and that was it. Joshua Dobbs came in immediately after that and played the bulk, and we can expect a similar pattern here. Aaron Rodgers could see a few snaps though, to get accustomed to his new team. But Rodgers' backup, Zach Wilson, who would have been the starter if not for the Rodgers signing, will be extra motivated here for sure in the preseason to leave an impression that he's more than just a backup QB in this league. Cleveland's offense is based around the run, and the Jets' defense is one of the best in stopping the rush. The edge goes to New York in every metric in this contest and while I clearly feel the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab the points. The play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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07-31-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orioles on the runline. They say that divisional matchups are always the most important, and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. That's true in most cases, but here's an opportunity for the Orioles to continue to distance themselves from the Jays in the wildcard race. Motivationally speaking, it's equal. These starters are evenly matched as well. Baltimore turns to Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.68 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Bassitt (10-5, 3.91.) In this evenly matched contest, the value swings to the ORIOLES on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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07-30-23 | Wings v. Aces -10 | Top | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Las Vegas. With nearly 70% of the public money on the Wings here, I'm going the opposite way and expecting the Aces to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. These teams have played twice this year, and Dallas 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS after winning 80-78 at home as a 9.5-point dog back on July 7th. Note though that the Aces are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Dallas has a couple days off after this before a much "easier" game at Seattle, and I think it also gets caught "looking ahead." All things considered, I feel this line should in fact be a lot larger. Grab the points, the play is the ACES. Good luck, NP |
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07-23-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Orioles. This has been a back and forth series so far, with each divisional foe taking one game apiece. Baltimore came into this series red hot, while the Rays have been pretty pedestrian over the last month or so. Regardless, in what I anticipate will be another tightly contested affair, one which will almost assuredly be decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a great starting pitching matchup working in favor of Baltimore today, as the visitors go with Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.54 ERA). The home side counters with the erratic Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.29.) The play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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07-21-23 | Braves v. Brewers +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -146 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER SPECIAL on the Brewers. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay this price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Braves had lost four in a row before yesterday's 7-5 win. Now they face a red hot Milwaukee side that's gone 8-2 in its last ten, including just taking two of three from Philadelphia. I give the slight nod to Freddy Peralta (6-7, 4.41 ERA) here as well throwing at home over his counterpart Mike Soroka (1-1, 5.40.)Â Overall this is a really great line value for the home side on the runline option. The play is MILWAUKEE on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP |
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07-20-23 | Aces v. Storm +18.5 | Top | 79-63 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Storm. Here is a great situational play, as Seattle plays with double revenge in this one after two earlier SU/ATS losses (and note that the Storm are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row.) Las Vegas is 19-2 and not only No. 1 in the West, but easily No. 1 in the league. A big All Star Weekend hangover is about to occur though in my opinion, with the Storm coming in as the more organized and focused side. Outright win?! I'm definitely not calling for that. But the overall situation, combined with the trends and numbers I listed above, all collide here and point to this contest being a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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07-20-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ULTIMATE BEST BEST on the Orioles runline. Baltimore went into the break on a huge run, but then it dropped the first two games in the second half at home to the Dodgers. But then the Orioles bounced back with an 8-5 win in yesterday's series finale and I believe that they'll keep that momentum rolling here. The Rays continue to slide and the Orioles can smell the blood in the water after Tampa Bay lost all three games in Texas in their first series after the Mid-Summer Classic. I'll call these starters a "wash," as Kyle Gibson is 9-6 with a 4.77 ERA for the Orioles, while Tyler Glasnow is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA for the Rays. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm backing BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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07-15-23 | Calgary +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 125 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF GOY on the Stampeders. Calgary is 1-3 and Saskatchewan is 3-1. The Stamps will be risking life and limb to avoid a 1-4 hole, and the play iwth the added incentive of revenge here as well after falling 29-26 in OT to Saskatchewan in Week 3 (and note that Calgary is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.) Calgary is off the 24-11 road loss at Winnipeg, while Saskatchewan barely held on for the 12-11 win over Edmonton last week at home as a 7.5-point favorite. The Stamps are significantly better in every metric on both sides of the ball over the Elks, and they have the motivational, external and trend based factors also all working in their favor here. The outright is possible, but grab as many points as you can. The play is CALGARY. Good luck, NP |
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07-14-23 | Toronto v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* CFL ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Montreal Alouettes. Honestly, I'm not a big "player" guy. Players don't usually factor into my equation when I'm handicapping games. If a player is out, then his absence is reflected in the line. We're in 2023 fellas, the bookmakers are sharper than they've ever been at any other time in history. I'm not that great at individual player assessment, and I've struggled at Fantasy Sports, which is obviously very difficult and completely player driven. I've always been much better at looking at a team as a whole and then giving an assessment. I'm a situational handicapper. I've always felt that being flexible with your approach when it comes to handicapping is the best, and so I look at many different factors throughout the regular season like "revenge" etc, more closely than trying to handicap the players themselves. I'm looking at line movement. I'm looking at where the public money is, as I'm also definitely a contrarian at heart, when most of the people are going on way, I'm invariably going the other. And so this pick on Montreal definitely falls right into my wheelhouse as far as being a great situational play in my opinion. The Toronto Argonauts are the defending Grey Cup Champs. They're 3-0 to open the season, both straight up and against the spread, but I think last week's bye came at the worst time possible for the Argos. Chemistry and timing is a very real thing in sports obviously, and I think that "firing on all cylinders" offense which just beat BC 45-24 at home two weeks ago, will come into this one a bit flat to begin with. The Alouettes are now 2-2 straight up and against the spread. Montreal started the season 2-0, but it's since dropped two straight, including last week's game at BC by a score of 35-19. So Montreal is the more motivated team here for sure. It also plays with a sense of revenge. This is the first meeting of the year between the clubs this season, but Toronto took three of four in the series last season. That includes a 34-27 win in the East Division Final, so revenge is big time on the minds of the Alouettes here today. One last thing to point out as well, is that Montreal has in fact had a lot of success here at home against the Argos, winning six of the last seven in the series played here. Everything points to at least the comfortable cover. Grab the points, the play is MONTREAL. Good luck, NP |
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07-12-23 | Liberty v. Fever +9.5 | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE SPECIAL on the Fever. The Fever play with revenge here after falling 90-73 at New York back on May 21st. Indiana has now lost seven straight after a slim 77-76 setback to Dallas last time out. The Liberty get caught looking past their lowly opponent today to time off and to a big representation at the All Star Weekend festivities. Note that Indiana is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. New York takes the foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and while I'm stopping short in calling for an outright upset, I say this one is super competitive until the final moments. So grab as many points as you can, the play is INDIANA. Good luck, NP |
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07-12-23 | Sun v. Sky +4 | Top | 84-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Chicago Sky. I'm primarily a situational handicapper, and this one sets up beautifully for Chicago in a few different ways from my point of view. The Sky play with revenge here after a 96-72 road loss at Connecticut as 6.5-point dogs back on June 25th. That's significant to note though, as Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Chicago had won three straight SU/ATS before back-to-back SU/ATS home losses to ATL most recently. I say the hungry Sky will, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with CHICAGO. Good luck, NP |
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07-11-23 | Storm +6.5 v. Mystics | Top | 86-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Storm. I played on the Storm in their 80-76 loss at New York last time out. Seattle was a 15.5 point dog in that one. New York almost got "caught looking ahead" in that one, and with the All-Star break on deck next for Washington, I think the Mystics will get caught looking past their lowly opponent here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but once again the conditions are right for Seattle to be extremely competitive, especially considering that the Storm have another tough game tomorrow night at Atlanta to close out their first half. Washington has been playing poorly, just 1-3 in its last four and the Storm play with the added incentive of revenge after the Mystics took both games in Seattle back on June 9th and 11th (and note that Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last seven in trying ot avenge two or more straight losses vs. an opponent.) A great situational play. Grab the points, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP |
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07-09-23 | Montreal +7.5 v. BC | Top | 19-35 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Montreal. BC looked like the team to beat in the CFL until last week's 45-24 loss at Toronto. Now the Lions face another tough team here in Montreal, which also comes in off a terrible outing, falling 17-3 at home to Winnipeg. So is Montreal is good as its 2-0 start, or is it as bad as it's defeat at home to the Bombers last week? Is BC as good as its 3-0 start, or is it as bad as last week's confusing effort?! In my opinion, the answer is neither. They're neither as good as their respective quick starts would imply, and they're not nearly as terrible as last week's losses. These team's defensive numbers though are very similar. This game is going to be won in the trenches, and by field position, and in a contest like that, it's going to be whichever team has its hands on the ball last that comes out on top. Because of that, I'm grabbing the points. The play is the ALOUETTES. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-09-23 | Wings v. Fever +2 | Top | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOY on the Fever. Dallas comes in off a huge 80-78 win at home over Las Vegas (the Aces now fall to 16-2) as a 9.5-point underdog, and after that epic victory, I'm expecting an immediate return to mediocrity here. Dallas is now 9-9 and second in the Western Conference, but with a match at Minnesota up next (who is also 9-9 and actually tied with the Wings for second place), there's no question that this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors. Letdown + look-ahead = TRAP GAME. Indiana is just 5-13 and it's lost six straight. But that fact has only helped in skewing this line today, flipping the value to this now undervalued home dog. When these teams last played in Minnesota last year, the Lynx won by a score of 95-91 in OT as 13-point favorites. I expect a similar final outcome here as well. Grab the points, the play is INDIANA. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-08-23 | Storm +16.5 v. Liberty | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Storm. New York is first in the East. It's 12-4. It's off back-to-back wins, including an 81-66 win at Seattle on July 2nd, followed by a 99-95 victory at home here to Phoenix. The Storm have responded well in this spot for bettors though, going 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. I think the Liberty finally get caught a little flat-footed here and I look for the STORM to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-07-23 | Calgary +8.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Calgary. Calgary fell flat in Week 1 in a 25-15 setback at home to BC, and then bounced back with a 25-15 win as a 6.5-point fav at Ottawa in Week 2. And then in Week 3 it lost 29-26 in OT at home to Saskatchewan as a 2-point favorite. With a week off to prepare, I look for the Stamps to be organized enough to, at the very least, keep it competitive enough to easily cover with the spread here. Winnipeg has only had one major hiccup, and that was in its 30-6 home loss here to BC back in Week 3, but it still enters Week 5 sitting at 3-1 after a bounce-back 17-3 win at Montreal last week. The bottom line here is that Jake Maier leads a Stampeders' offense that has the capability of keeping pace with the Bombers. Maier had three TD passes in the loss to the Riders. I like Calgary to keep this one close down the stretch. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-06-23 | Edmonton Elks +8 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Elks. Despite being 0-4 SU/ATS, I like Edmonton to, at the very least, to do just enough to earn a hard-fought cover with the large spread that it's been afforded this week. The Elks are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Saskatchewan has looked OK, but this is also a revenge spot for the Elks, who fell 17-13 in Week 1 on the road vs. the Riders. Note as well that Edmonton is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Off the 29-26 OT win as an underdog over Calgary, coming off their bye week, and with a rematch vs. the Stamps next week, I'm predicting that Saskatchewan comes out flat here. Outright win?! Anything's possible, but in a contest that I do indeed believe will be a lot tighter than what this spread is suggesting, I'm grabbing the points. The play is EDMONTON. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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07-04-23 | Braves v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* WINNER on the Guardians on the runline. The saying, "all good things must come to an end," could not be more apt in this particular situation. Atlanta has been fantastic of late, winning nine in a row, but this is a clear starting pitching mismatch, and grabbing Shane Bieber on the runline option at this price is just too good to turn down in my opinion. Bieber is 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA and he posted a 2.90 ERA in five June starts. Kolby Allard (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes just his second start of the season. He threw four innings of shutout ball vs. the Twins last Wednesday. Despite that though, a huge nod goes to Bieber at home here. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP |
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06-30-23 | Mystics v. Dream +2.5 | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Dream. A great revenge spot here for Atlanta, which fell 109-86 at Washington as a five-point dog in its last outing. ATL has now lost three straight SU/ATS and that's important to note, as the Dream are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. They're also 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Washington is 9-5 and it's gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five. The Mystics though are interestingly just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after five or more straight ATS victories in a row. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is ATLANTA. Good luck, NP |
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06-29-23 | Fever v. Mercury +4.5 | Top | 63-85 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BEST OF BEST on Phoenix. Indiana is coming off consecutive losses at Las Vegas, but it's covered in three straight after previous winning 80-68 at Seattle. I think the Fever have a letdown here in Phoenix with their fourth straight away from friendly confines. The Mercury have lost six, both SU and ATS. Note though that Phoenix is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after five or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. Indiana finally returns home after this to play Chicago in a few days, and I think it gets caught looking ahead. The outright is clearly possible, but the official call is to grab the points and the MERCURY. Good luck, NP |
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06-28-23 | Sparks v. Sky | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE SPECIAL on the Sky. After six striaght SU losses, and three straight ATS losses in a row, I expect the Sky to dig deep here and finally deliver at home in the opener of this two-game series here in Chicago. Note that the Sky are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. LA is off two straight SU/ATS victories, but it struggles on the road. Look for Chicago to dig deep here as it finally gets off the schneid and back into the winner's circle. Good luck, NP |
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06-23-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Astros RUNLINE. Two rookies going head-to-head here and two teams that are hungry for a victory. JP France is 2-2 with a 3.42 ERA and more "battle-tested" than his counterpart. Emmet Sheehan is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA after allowing one hit over six innings vs. the Giants last week in his MLB debut. The bullpen then blew it for the rookie. Regardless, regression does seem imminent here for Sheehan in this difficult second start and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is HOUSTON on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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06-20-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Orioles RUNLINE. Two really hot teams, and two really decent starting pitchers. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game tonight. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Yes, Tampa is 31-7 at home, but Baltimore is 22-14 on the road. Tyler Glasnow is 2-0 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP for the home side, while Kyle Bradish is 2-3 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP for the visitors. Evenly matched all around here, making BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option the savvy move in this one. Good luck, NP |
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06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks +7 v. BC | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Elks. BC looked "ok" in its 25-15 road win at Calgary last weekend. With back-to-back road games at Winnipeg and Toronto after this, I expect the home side to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent today. Edmonton has now lost five straight SU dating to last year, and that's in fact significant to note, as the visiting organization is in fact a near-perfect 5-1 ATS in its last six after five or more SU losses in a row. Taylor Cornelius does have an explosive weapon in Eugene Lewis, who had 148 yards last week. Cornelius finished with 202 yards, one TD and two picks. Vernon Adams Jr. had 300 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Stamps last week. But I think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread is suggesting. I think this one'll be a defensive affair, one that's decided in the trenches and with field position. I'm grabbing the points, the play is EDMONTON. Good luck, NP |
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06-16-23 | Lynx v. Sparks -5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
10* Sparks (BOOKIEKILLER) They say "revenge" is a dish best served cold. That is a bit confusing, but in this case, "revenge" is the main reason why I like LA in this spot. The last time the 2-7 Lynx played, they beat the Sparks 91-86 at home on June 11th. They were one-point dogs in that one. LA would then go to hammer Dallas on the road 79-61 as a 5.5-point dog on June 14th. I think the Sparks keep the foot on the gas here at home, and note that they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Lay the points, the play is LA. Good luck, NP |
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06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa +5.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Redblacks. If you watched Nick Arbuckle last week, then you saw him and Ottawa fall 19-12 to Montreal as a two-point underdog. Arbuckle was terrible, finishing with 175 yards, no TD's and three interceptions. There's only one way to go for Arbuckle and this Ottawa offense in Week 2. The good thing though is that they face a reeling Calgary defense which looked inept against what is projected to be a very mediocre BC offense, falling 25-15. Arbuckle faces his former team here and I think he'll settle down. His defense actually looked pretty good in defeat last week and I think Ottawa's unit is in line for another big day facing the Stampeders Jake Maier, who had a pedestrian day vs. the Leos, finishing with 166 yards, 1 touchdown and one interception. I smell an upset, but am still grabbing this healthy amout of points. The play is OTTAWA. Good luck, NP |
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06-13-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 15-3 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL GOY on the DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE. What do you base your picks on? How do you make your selections? Do you follow one single handicapping methodology, or are you flexible with your approach? I base my picks on many different things. Often I base picks on "value." On my "perceived value" of a situation. This is one of those cases. I simply feel that the "value" is much too good to turn down here by grabbing the red hot home side on the "runline option" at this price. The D-Backs should in fact be favored here in my opinion. The fact that they're an underdog at home, and then getting an extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price is the cherry on top. Zach Wheeler is 4-4 with a 3.91 ERA for the Phillies, while Zach Davies is 1-1 with a 4.68 ERA for the D-Backs. They're a "wash" here. But for all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Heat. Miami responded well in Game 2 after a defeat in Game 1, and that's exactly what we're expecting here as well after the Heat lost both SU and ATS in Game 3. Note that Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. It's also 4-1 ATS in its last five coming off a SU/ATS home loss as a dog. With a chance to even up this series, we're looking for MIAMI to do just that (but grab as many points as you can!)Â Good luck, TIR |
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06-09-23 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | 31-42 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on Hamilton. Outright win? Anything is possible in Week 1 in the CFL. Last year the Ti-Cats finished their 2022 season with a 28-17 loss as 1.5-point dogs at Montreal in the East semi. The Ti-Cats enter the season with a new face under center though, veteran QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who has two Grey Cup MVP's. The Bombers lost as five-point favs 24-23 to the Argos in the Grey Cup. After finishing the season 15-3 last year, we expect a drop-off across the baord for the Bombers. In a contest that we see being decided late, we're grabbing the points. The play is the TI-CATS. Good luck, TIR |
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06-09-23 | Twins +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Twins (RUNLINE) These two teams are suddenly going in opposite directions. But we feel that the desperate Twins are worth the price of admission here to secure the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Minnesota has now lost five straight. That's significant to note here though as the Twins are 3-1 in their last four after five or more straight losses in a row. Toronto has won three straight, but we expect it to have its hands full here today. The slight nod in the starting pitching matchup goes to the visiting side as well, as Sonny Gray is 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for the Twins, while Yusei Kikuchi is an almost as good 6-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP for the Jays. We think this one'll be close, so lay the price and take MINNESOTA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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06-05-23 | Cubs +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Cubs. While we do feel an outright win is possible, in the end we're going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Cubs won't be taking the foot off the gas now with a chance to win their first raod series in nearly two months. The Padres continue to struggle in many facets, but especially at home. Kyle Hendricks gets the nod for the visitors and he's 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA after making his second start after returning from surgery, allowing one run over five innings in a home victory over Tampa: "I felt much more like myself," Hendricks said. "It tells me that I can just do what I do. Get back to being myself again." Hendricks has to be feeling confident here, as he's domianted the Friars throughout his career, going 8-2 with a tiny 2.61 ERA in 13 starts vs. them. Blake Snell is an unremarkable 1-6 with a 4.50 ERA for the Padres. He's 1-1 with a 1.06 ERA in three career starts vs. the Cubs. But in a contest which we see being decided late, or perhaps even in extras, the savvy call is indeed to grab the visiting side on the RUNLINE option (CUBS.) Good luck, TIR |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Heat. Do or die here essentially it feels like for Miami. We had a play on the Heat in Game 1, and no matter how good or bad a team is playing, it'll always be difficult to win a contest when you only get to go to the free throw line twice. Despite that though, Miami came just a three-point basket away from covering in Game 1. Suffice it to say, we're expecting a lot more calls to go the Heat's way here in Game 2. Note as well that Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. Denver may win this Game 2, but it's going to be a battle until the final horn. So grab as many points as you can! Good luck, TIR |
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06-02-23 | Braves v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the D-Backs runline. Two really good teams here, but Arizona has been red hot and we're expecting that momentum to get carried over in the opener of this interesting three-game series. Arizona has won five straight after taking all four from Colorado over the weekend. Atlanta avoided a sweep on Wednesday with a 4-2 win over lowly Oakland. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters a "wash:" Charlie Morton is 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA for the Braves, while Merrill Kelly is 6-3 with a 2.83 ERA for the Diamondbacks. Note though that Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine as a home dog in the +101 to +115 range. We're bypassing the moneyline though and instead laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Lay the price, the play ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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06-01-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Heat. The Heat have surprised every team they've played in Game 1 of each series in the Playoffs, and we have every reason to believe that that trend will continue here in the Finals. No one in the World can slow down Nikola Jokic right now, but the rest of the Nuggets are going to have to step up if Denver is truly going to win this series. The Heat are great defenders, and they're efficient outside shooters. We expect Miami to throw its "best shot" at the Nuggets here in Game 1. Will "rest" lead to "rust" for the Nuggets?! The answer is: maybe! Either way, we expect this one to be a lot closer than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is MIAMI. Good luck, TIR |
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05-31-23 | Roma v. Sevilla | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on As Roma. When Roma succeeds here, Mourinho will become the most decorated manager in European Competition. He'd also be the only manager to win the Europa League with three different clubs. Yes, Sevilla's form is currently better at the moment, as Roma has lost some of its momentum in Serie A and is giving everything it has to win in Europe. Mourinho's men though are on an entirely different level on the defensive end and they are able to strike effectively from a set-piece. In our opinion, this will be more than enough to secure the victory. The play is ROMA. Good luck, TIR |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Celtics. We had a play on the OVER in Game 6. That came up short obviously. With nearly 80% of the early money/bets on Miami in Game 7, we're going to go full-on contrarian mode here in Game 7 and go the other way. We've collectively felt that "momentum" in sports is a very real, almost tangible factor, and it's a factor that becomes even more important during the playoffs. It's also one in which we've come to learn that the oddsmakers have a hard time in properly quantifying into a line, and that's definitely the case here in Game 7 in our opinion. Jason Tatum and the Celtics are on the verge of history and the NBA itself would love nothing more than a Boston/Denver Final. Lay the points, the play is indeed on BOSTON. Good luck, TIR |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Celtics. A chance! A small sliver of hope! That's what Boston needed, and that's what the Celtics produced for themselves in Game 4's blowout 116-99 victory. "Momentum" in sports, especially in the playoffs, is a very real, almost "tangible" factor that we've felt that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying. Clearly, Jimmy Butler and the Heat have been the surprise team in the East this year in the Playoffs, but we expect Jayson Tatum and the home side to duplicate their Game 4 performance here at home, and even better it here in Game 5. And finally, with the majority of the public money/bets on the Heat, we're "going the other way" in true contrarian fashion. Lay the points, the play is BOSTON. Good luck, TIR |
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05-23-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Orioles. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the small price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Both teams are hot, with Baltimore coming to town off a 3-0 sweep in Toronto, while New York just all three at Cincinnati over the weekend. Kyle Bradish is 2-1 with a 3.90 ERA for the Orioles, while Gerrit Cole is 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA for the Yanks. We feel these guys are a wash. With nearly 85% of the public money on the Yanks here, we feel we're getting supreme value going the other way. Lay the price, the play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Lakers. LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite at home against an opponent. LA won't be going to the Finals, but it's not going to get swept either. Lay the points, the play is LA. Good luck, TIR |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Lakers. No need to overthink this one. This now becomes the Lakers most important game of the entire season. An 0-3 hole would be too difficult to navigate out of. Home floor advantage will prove crucial here in this one though in our opinions. The Nuggets are a sub-par 21-25 SU/ATS on the road this year. The Lakers are a solid 30-18 SU and 27-19-1 ATS in LA. This is how six out of ten of The Insiders Room crew sees this one unfolding. The play is the LAKERS. Good luck, TIR |
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05-17-23 | Heat v. Celtics -7.5 | 123-116 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Celtics. The bottom line here is that we think the longer lay off for the Heat will ruin their chemistry. With the majority of the public money on the Heat, we love this contrarian play on the Celtics. This is very similar to Game 7 between the 76ers and the Celtics, in which Philly was an 8-point dog and nearly 70% of the public money was on the dog. Of course, Boston went on to win easily by a score of 112-88. We expect a similar style blowout here in Game 1 of the ECF. Lay the points, the play is BOSTON. Good luck, TIR |
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05-15-23 | Seattle Kraken +1.5 v. Stars | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Kraken PUCKLINE. This has been a back-and-forth series. It's been very evenly matched. And now here we are in Game 7 and once again we're expecting a highly-competitive affair, one that will very likely be decided late, or even in extra time. Seattle has been at its best on the road this year. The public isn't quite sure what to make of the Kraken, but in our opinion, everything points to Game 7 being a complete "nail-biter" until the end. The play is SEATTLE on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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05-13-23 | Stars v. Seattle Kraken +1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Kraken puckline. We're laying the price here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. We see this contest being decided late, or even in extra time. Note that Seattle is 7-2 in its last nine after two or more straight losses in a row. We're highly contrarian, and with the majority of the early wagers here on Dallas SU to win this contest, we absolutely feel the value swings here to this hungry underdog home side that's fighting for its life tonight. Lay the price, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, TIR |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Nuggets. If Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are going to finally take the next step and get over the hump, they're going to have to find a way to win on the road in the Playoffs. Denver's achilles heel all year has been its play on the road, but we're finally expecting the Nuggets to deliver here. Phoenix is just too thin after their starters, and does not have the depth anymore at this point of the series to compete in our opinion. So far the home floor advantage has proved critical in this series, but we expect that trend to end here. Jokic has won the MVP in B2B years, but here is a moment for him to once again take center stage and show the World why he is in fact the best player on the planet. While we feel the outright win is possible, the official play will be to grab the points. The play is DENVER. Good luck, TIR |
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05-11-23 | Seattle Kraken +1.5 v. Stars | 2-5 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Kraken puckline. This has been a back-and-forth series, and we're expecting another competitive battle here in this all-important Game 5. Seattle took Game 1 here by a score of 5-4 in OT, and we're expecting a similar competitive battle that could also see extra time here in Game 5. Note as well that Seattle is still 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Neither team has the advantage here, and that swings the value to this undervalued underdog. The play here though is to grab SEATTLE on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Knicks. It's do or die, time to put up or shut up. The Heat and Jimmy Butler are feeling confident and talking trash. Butler recently called himself the best player on Earth, who isn't bothered by either double OR triple teams. Miami is cocky now after going 9-2 ATS in the Playoffs (including the Play-In Tournament), including win seven straight ATS. Those facts though have only helped in driving this spread a little lower than it normally would be though in our opinion. New York has lost four straight ATS, and two straight SU (but note that the Knicks have responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge two or more SU/ATS losses in a row vs. an opponent.) We're expecting the home side to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire, so grab the points. The play is NEW YORK. Good luck, TIR |
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05-10-23 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | 8-1 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Brewers RUNLINE. Off a 6-2 loss yesterday, we like the Brewers and their ace Wade Miley to, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the very end. Milwaukee won the opener of this series by a score of 9-3. The Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw, who is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA, while the home side does indeed go with Miley, who is 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA. Note that Milwaukee is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. The outright is possible, but great overall value here with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is MILWAUKEE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
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