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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma v. BYU +24.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on BYU. BYU is obviously a huge dog here and I'm not predicting that it'll somehow be able to pull off the outright upset, but I do think the 5-5 Cougars will put up a much bigger fight than what this spread is suggesting. Oklahoma is 8-2 this year after beating WVU 59-20 last weekend, but it's just 2-2 SU on the road. BYU is 5-5, but 4-1 SU at home. Oklahoma can see the finish line and it won't be taking anything for granted here, but I just don't see Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners keeping the foot on the gas in the second half. So far Oklahoma is averaging 41.8 PPG, while allowing 19.8. BYU is averaging 21.9 PPG, while allowing 28.7. This is obviously a very contrarian play. The numbers are lop-sided for these teams, as is the public money on one of these two sides. While most everyone goes one way, I'm going the other and grabbing the points. The play is BYU. Good luck, NP |
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11-17-23 | Panthers v. Ducks +1.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on the Ducks puckline. I am going to lay the price here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. You may want to "sprinkle" a little on the Ducks on the moneyline as well though. Either way, this is a great "situational/spot" bet, as Florida is off a 2-1 loss at LA just last night. With two whole nights off after this, followed by a lengthy home-stand, I say the visitors get caught flat-footed here and "looking ahead." So now the Ducks can take advantage as they look to respond after an 8-2 loss at Colorado. The Panthers are 8-8 to the puckline, while the Ducks are 11-5. Lay the price, the play is ANAHEIM on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Ravens. This important divisional matchup favors the home side in my opinion. The Bengals are now 5-4 after a last-second 30-27 loss to the Texans on Sunday, while the Ravens are 7-3 after a tough 33-31 loss to Cleveland. Each team had big early leads, and each collapsed late. Did they get caught "looking ahead" to this Thursday night divisional matchup?! Very likely! When they met earlier this year in Cincinnati, the Ravens won 27-24, but I'm expecting a much more lop-sided outcome here on Thursday night. Lay the points, the play is BALTIMORE. Good luck, NP |
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11-15-23 | Central Michigan +11 v. Ohio | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on CMU. At 5-5, CMU isn't getting much of a chance here by the oddsmakers to win this game straight up, but I say the conditions are right for a tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. CMU is 5-5. It has two more games to try and punch a possible bowl berth. However, the odds are against the Chips as they'll be huge underdogs in each game, including this one and their final one of the regular season vs. Toledo. Ohio is 7-3. It's off a 20-10 win over Buffalo. It has a game at the lowly Zips after this. The bottom line here is that the more motivated side is going to fight tooth and nail and I believe that'll be more than enough to get the job done with the large amount of points. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is CENTRAL MICHIGAN. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-14-23 | Southern Utah v. Utah State -15.5 | Top | 84-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE BEATDOWN on Utah State. Southern Utah is 1-1 SU and 1-0 ATS, while Utah State is 1-1 SU, and 0-1 ATS. Southern Utah averaged 82.8 PPG last year, while allowing 74.7. The Aggies averaged 78.2 PPG, while conceding just 69.9. The difference though is the level of competition. After a somewhat lacklustre start, I'm looking for Utah State to take advantage of this matchup as I expect its defense to be the difference-maker in the end. Lay the points, the play is UTAH STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-14-23 | Mavs v. Pelicans +3.5 | Top | 110-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Pelicans. Dallas has won four of its last five, including two in a row after a 136-124 win here two nights ago. New Orleans comes in on the other end of the spectrum, eager to snap a five SU/ATS losing streak. Note though that NO is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Pels have also done well in a revenge role, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Dallas has a game in Washington tomorrow night, so I say it gets caught peaking ahead to that one as well. While the outright is possible, grab as many points as you can. The play is NEW ORLEANS. Good luck, NP |
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11-14-23 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -5 | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Northern Illinois. Both teams are 4-6 with two games to go to try and punch eligibility. WMU is off a 38-28 home win over SMU, but I think it'll struggle here now on the road after two straight victories. Last week QB Hayden Wolff went 25 of 36 for 333 yards, three TD's and an INT. NIU comes in as the more desperate team here though after two straight losses, most recently it was a 20-17 home setback to Ball State. Senior QB Ricky Lombardi was 15 of 26 for 141 yards, while also rushing for 14 yards and a TD as well. WMU though is conceding 28.8 PPG over its last five games, while over that same span NIU has allowed just 19.4. Lay the points, the play is NORTHERN ILLINOIS. Good luck, NP |
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11-13-23 | Michigan v. St. John's -2.5 | Top | 89-73 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on St. John's. This is part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games. The Wolverines are 2-0 after pulling away for a 92-62 win over Youngstown State on Friday. They're also 2-0 ATS. The Red Storm are 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS after a 90-74 win over Stony Brook. The moral of the story here? Clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched. St. John's has had a week off to prepare for this one, where Michigan played on Friday. Look for the more rested side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. Lay the short points, the play is ST. JOHN'S. Good luck, NP |
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11-12-23 | UC-Davis +4.5 v. Montana | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG BOB on UC Davis. UC Davis is 2-0 SU, and 0-2 ATS. Montana is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever of these equally-matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. Last year Montana averaged 69.3 PPG, while the Aggies averaged 74.8. Elija Pepper and Ty Johnson are a difficult matchup issue for the home side here. Look for UC DAVIS to, at the very least, keep this one comfortably close down the stretch and grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST HALF TOP SIDE on the 49ers. If you can't get San Francisco on the FIRST HALF option, I also absolutely love it for the ENTIRE GAME here as well. After three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, but now coming out of its bye week, I think the 49ers finally put it together and keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. Jacksonville has won five straight, but it's still just 1-2 at home this season. Yes, the Jags are also coming out of a bye, but I think that it came at the worst time. Chemistry will be affected. Conversely, the bye came at the best possible time for the 49ers, who have since also brought in defensive-specialist DE Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline. Jacksonville's weakness is on pass defense, and it's now or never for Brock Purdy. I say SAN FRANCISCO jumps out to the early lead in this one (but again, if you can't find a FIRST HALF line, I also like the 49ERS for the ENTIRE game.) Good luck, NPÂ |
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11-12-23 | Texans +6.5 v. Bengals | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHOCKER on the Texans. As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. Houston catches the Bengals "looking ahead" here to their Thursday night divisional matchup vs. the red hot Ravens. The Texans are 4-4 and off the big 39-37 win over a tough Tampa defense. I like Stroud to keep his team competitive late again here. Grab the points, the play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Siena +12 v. Richmond | Top | 48-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILER on Siena. Both teams are 1-0. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do absolutely believe that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Siena held on for a tighter-than-expected 73-71 win over Holy Cross in its opener, while Richmond rolled over VMI 93-71. The Saints had three players score in double-digits, while Richmond had two. The lack of scoring depth for the Spiders is something they'll have to figure out before the end of the season if they want to be true contendors. Either way, this is a few too many points in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is SIENA. Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Georgia Southern v. Marshall +1.5 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Marshall. 6-3 Georgia Southern had a predictable letdown last Saturday, one week after becoming eligible, falling 45-24 at Texas State as a 2.5-point underdog. Now it faces 4-5 Marshall, which has lost five straight SU, and six straight ATS. The Thundering Herd are running out of chances to become eligible, but now here finally is an opponent and a venue in which it has the upper hand. Marshall's pass defense is above average and I say that the more "desperate" team rallies here in this "do or die" situation. Grab the points, the play is MARSHALL. (more analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Virginia Tech +1 v. Boston College | Top | 48-22 | Win | 100 | 118 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GOW on Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech is running out of time to become eligible. Losing though breeds motivation, while at times, winning can lead to complacency. The Hokies had won two straight convincingly before last week's 34-3 meltdown at Louisville. But with only three games remaining, it's clearly now or never for the visiting side. BC won its fifth straight and moved to 6-3 in last week 17-10 upset win at Syracuse. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here? Note as well that the Eagles are in fact just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU victories in a row. Does that stat matter for this year's team? It certainly doesn't hurt my argument! Either way, as primarily a "situational" handicapper, this one falls right into my "wheel-house." While clearly the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with VIRGINIA TECH. Good luck, NP |
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11-11-23 | Arkansas State +2 v. Bowling Green | Top | 75-81 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG SUPER SHOCKER on Arkansas State. Arkansas State comes in as the hungrier team here after falling to Wisconsin in its opener. Bowling Green is 1-0, but its victory came over lowly Chicago State. In the 105-76 loss to the Badgers, Freddy Hicks was superb in a losing cause with 21 point and seven boards and I think he'll be a matchup issue for the Green Falcons today. The 70-41 win over Chicago State clearly has to be taken with a grain of salt, with Marcus Hill leading the way with 18 points and five boards. The Red Wolves still shot 40.7 percent in their loss to Wisconsin, and this Green Falcons' defense isn't anything close to the Badgers' unit. Either way, while I do think the outright win is possible obviously, my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can with ARKANSAS STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Kings. I like the Kings to find a way to get the job done here and win this game at home. OKC has won two in a row and covered in three straight. This is the Thunder's first road game in two weeks though and I think it'll struggle here vs. this motivated and good home team. The Kings do definitey play better at home. They're 3-4 overall, but 2-1 at home. The Thunder are 2-0 on the road, but both victories came at the start of the year. With a much more high-profile game at Phoenix up next, I say OKC gets caught "looking ahead" here as well. Look for the hungrier home side to punch a "W" into the win column here and play SACRAMENTO. Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | North Texas +17 v. SMU | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on North Texas. At this time of year, taking a "situational" approach to handicapping College Football is always a greart way to make your selections, and that's the case for me here with this one. Clearly, SMU is the better team. It's 7-2, including 4-0 at home. UNT is just 3-6, and only 1-3 on the road. The Mean Green though have been competitive away from friendly confines, going a money-making 3-1 ATS for bettors in a vistors role so far. SMU is 3-1 ATS at home, but UNT is 3-6 with just three games remaining. The odds are against the Mean Green to become eligible obviously, but they won't be rolling over here, it's "do or die" etc. SMU gets caught "peeking ahead" to it game at Memphis next week in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is indeed on NORTH TEXAS. Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Monmouth +16 v. West Virginia | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Monmouth. I like Monmouth to comfortably sneak in through the back door. WVU is 1-0 after a relatively easy 67-59 win over Missouri State, while Monmouth is 0-1 after a 72-61 setback at George Mason. Quinn Slazinski had 18 points for the Mountaineers in the victory, while Xander Rice had 21 points for Monmouth in a losing cause. Last year WVU averaged 76 PPG, while allowing 70.9, while the Hawks averaged 61.7 and allowing 74.7. Monmouth though is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a SU/ATS road loss as an underdog in its previous contest. This is a few too many points in my estimation. Grab the points, the play is indeed on MONMOUTH. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-10-23 | Youngstown State +14 v. Michigan | Top | 62-92 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* SHOCKER on Youngstown State. Am I suggesting that Youngstown State will win this game outright?! I am not! But I do think it'll be a lot closer down the stretch than what this lop-sided spread is suggesting. Last year the Penguins averaged 81.9 PPG, while allowing 72.5. They're 0-1 after a tight 72-62 loss at UL Lafayette as 4.5-point underdogs. Michigan rolled over UNCA 99-74 as a ten-point favorite. Last year the Wolverines averaged 73.4, while allowing 69.6. These teams have no recent history together and the bottom line is I believe the visiting side will come in under the radar here and give the Wolverines everything they can handle. Grab the points, the play is YOUNGSTOWN STATE. Good luck, NP |
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11-09-23 | Florida A&M +26 v. Nebraska | Top | 54-81 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE SHOCKER on Florida A&M. At the start of the season, in any sport, I employ a few different strategies, as my systems don't really kick into full gear until at least a week or so of results have been posted. Am I suggesting an outright win here? Of course not! But I do think that Nebraska will take the foot off the gas in the second half and allow Florida A&M more than enough room to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. I'm a situational handicapper, and this is a great situational play in my opinion. FAMU is 0-1after a huimbling 105-54 setback at Creighton. It's being undervalued here now though. Nebraska is 1-0 SU/ATS after its 84-52 win over Lindenwood. But with a neutral site tourney game vs. Oregon State up next, I think the home side gets caught "looking ahead." Grab the points, the play is FLORIDA A&M. (more analysis available.)Â Good luck, NP |
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11-08-23 | Southern +18.5 v. UNLV | Top | 85-71 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Southern. Southern travels to UNLV to take on the Rebels and in no way shape or form am I suggesting that the Jaguars will win this game straight-up, but I do think that the overall situation/conditions point to this one being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Southern lost 108-75 at TCU as a 27.5-point underdog, unable to cover with the large spread. The Jaguars get another large spread here on Wednesday as well, but with that first game under their belt, I think we'll see another solid overall performance from the visiting side. Southern made this trip here last year and lost this game 66-56 as a 14-point dog and all signs point to a similar final discrepancy in the outcome of this one here on Wednesday as well. Grab the points, the play is indeed on SOUTHERN. Good luck, NP |
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11-08-23 | Eastern Michigan +19 v. Toledo | Top | 23-49 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Eastern Michigan. I'm primarily a situational capper. This one sets up great situationally. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do definitely think that the 8-1 Rockets will take the foot off the gas in the second half of this one. EMU is 4-5. It's also 0-4 SU away from friendly confines, but bettors take notice, as the Eagles are 3-1 ATS. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home, but it's already been overvalued this season, as it's just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town faithful. EMU needs to win two more games to become eligible and it has three games left in which to try and pull that off. The odds are against the visiting side today to try and pull off the outright upset, but it certainly won't be rolling over. As stated off the top, I think this is a great situational play. Grab the points, the play is EASTERN MICHIGAN. Good luck, NP |
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11-07-23 | Auburn +2 v. Baylor | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on Auburn. These teams haven't played since January 30th, 2021 and Baylor won 84-72. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched, as this game is in fact being played on a neutral court. Baylor averaged 77 PPG last year, while conceding 70.3. The Bears struggled on the glass, ranked 283rd in the country with 29.9 per game. Baylor was sharp from behind the line, 18th in the nation with 9.3 per game. But Auburn ranked 17th best in country in defending the three-ball, allowing just 5.6 per contest, and SIXTH-BEST in three-point percentage allowed at 28.8 percent. Overall the Tigers averaged 72.8 PPG, while conceding 67.7. I say defense wins the day in this early season tournament action. Grab the points, the play is AUBURN. Good luck, NP |
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11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +7 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on Buffalo. Here's a great situational play. Ohio is 6-3 and has an opportunity to move up in the race for the conference standings, but Buffalo only has three more chances to become eligible. It's do or die from here on out. Will that necessarily translate into a straight up win here though? Difficult to say, but there's no question that the Bulls will be risking life and limb to try and pull off the upset. One week after becoming eligible, the Bobcats fell 30-16 at home to Miami Ohio. It's the Bulls though who have been the better bet for bettors this year, 5-4 ATS currently, compared to the Bobcats 4-5 ATS mark. While the majority of the public goes "one way" with this one, we're going to "go the other." The play is BUFFALO. Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Sam Houston State v. Pacific | 64-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Sam Houston State. With over 75% of the early public money on Pacific, we're definitely going the other way on this one and taking Sam Houston State. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Portland State +7 v. Air Force | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Portland State. With over 75% of the early public money on Air Force, we're definitely going the other way and taking Portland State. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-06-23 | Abilene Christian +10.5 v. Oklahoma State | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Albiene Christian. With nearly 80% of the early public money on Oklahoma State, we're going the other way here and taking Albiene Christian. (more analysis available.) Good luck, NP |
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11-05-23 | Warriors v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Cavaliers. The Warriors stumbled out of the gate last season, but not this year, as they come to town at 5-1 and playing great overall. The Cavaliers have had to deal with some minor injury issues to start the year, and they enter at 2-4. Mission accomplished for the Warriors, but I say they finally get caught looking ahead here to their game at Detroit tomorrow night. That's followed by a game at Denver. Golden State is 2-0 SU in its last two, but 0-2 ATS. It's barely holding onto the edge that it had, and I think it finally collapses here vs. the hungry home side. Cleveland hits the road for four straight after this game, putting added importance onto this Sunday night contest. Lay the points, the play is the CAVALIERS. Good luck, NP |
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11-04-23 | Hawks +3 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Hawks. I think this is a great "situational" play. Atlanta is 3-2 and New Orleans is 4-1. Each team has been playing great of late, but note that the Pels hit the road after this for a three-game trip, starting at Denver. I say the home side finally gets caught "looking ahead" here, and I believe the visitors catch New Orleans at a great time. This is a "trap" for New Orleans, and ATL will be looking to get its trip started off with a slight upset. In a contest that I see coming "down to the wire," I'm grabbing the points. The play is ATLANTA. Good luck, NP |
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11-04-23 | Florida State v. Pittsburgh +21.5 | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GOM on Pittsburgh. I used Pittsburgh as my ACC GOY vs. Louisville last month and cashed and now I think Pitt offers great value in this spot here in November as well. Am I calling for the outright victory? Of course not. But at 8-0 and off a 41-16 win at Wake Forest, and with a home game vs. Miami up next, I definitely believe there's plenty of room for the visiting side to take the foot off the gas in the second half in this one, allowing the 2-6 home side more than enough room to comforably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. With four games remaining, the Panthers' odds of becoming "eligible" are virtually zero, but off the humbling 58-7 setback at Notre Dame last week, I expect a uch better effort here at home, where Pitt is 2-2 this season. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is PITTSBURGH. Good luck, NP |
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11-02-23 | South Alabama +6.5 v. Troy | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN-BELT GOM on South Alabama. Here's a great situational play on many levels for USA to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the healthy amount of points that it's been afforded. USA is 4-4, and Troy is now "eligible" at 6-2 after last week's 31-13 win at Texas State. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?! 4-4 South Alabama though is running out of chances, and this is a game that it has a legitimate shot at winning outright. It also plays with a small amount of "revenge here after falling 10-6 to the Trojans as a 3-point favorite last year. In what I anticipate will be a game decided in the final moments, I'm grabbing the points. The play is USA. Good luck, NP |
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11-01-23 | Clippers v. Lakers -5 | Top | 125-130 | Push | 0 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. The Clippers are 3-1 and the Lakers are 2-2. Will the addition of James Harden make the Clippers a better team? Of course, but it doesn't mean that there will be unbelievable chemistry right off the bat. Clearly, it may never work out either. Either way, I think this is a great spot for the Lakers to grab the first game of the year between the two clubs here in LA. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS so far, but I expect that streak to end. The Clippers are 3-1 ATS. But the Clippers are coming off a 118-102 win here over Orlando just last night, and fatigue will for sure be an issue here. Both clubs have a few nights off after this before Eastern road swings, but I say that the Clippers come in a bit fatigued, and I expect the Lakers to smell the blood in the water and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, the play is the LAKERS. Good luck, NP |
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10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs +3 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE GOM on the Cavaliers. Both teams come in at 1-2. The Cavaliers played without Donovan Mitchell in their most recent 125-113 setback here at home to the Pacers are 3.5-point dogs, but I believe they'll finally bounce back here, whether their super-start suits up or not. This is the opener of a home and home set, so that puts added importance onto this one for the Cavs. The Knicks looked terrible in their most recent 96-87 loss at New Orleans. New York so far is living and dying with the three-ball, but I believe the Cavs will bounce back defensively here at home after their abnormally bad performance last time out. With a game at home tomorrow vs. this very same team, I believe the visitors do indeed also get caught "looking ahead" here. Cleveland has big bodies that limit second chance points. Overall they're a great defensive team, especially on the perimeter. With New York having difficulties scoring down low early in the season, that leaves the door open for a possible outright win here. But I say whether Mitchell plays or not, this highly-motivated home side will, at the very least, keep this one tight enough to cover with the handful of points it's been afforded in this matchup. Grab the points, the play is indeed on the CAVALIERS. Good luck, NP |
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10-30-23 | Raiders +7.5 v. Lions | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* PRIME-TIME SIDE WIN on the Raiders. Las Vegas is 3-4 and Detroit is 5-2. The Raiders won two straight at home over Green Bay and New England, before then falling flat in last week's 30-12 loss at Chicago against a desperate Bears team. But now it's the Raiders turn to play with desperation against a Lions side that's coming off a 38-6 beatdown loss at Baltimore. Las Vegas returns home for two very winnable games after this, so the Raiders will be gunning for the outright upset here. The Ravens own the best defense in the league, and Las Vegas is no Baltimore, but that game definitely exposed a lot of weaknesses here for Detroit. I'm not calling for an outright upset here or anything, but note that the Raiders' pass defense is Top 5, allowing just 187.4 YPG. Grab the points, the play is LAS VEGAS. Good luck, NP |
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10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers +1.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC NORTH GOY on the Packers. The Vikes are on a two-game win streak after holding on for a 22-17 victory at home as an underdog vs. San Francisco last weekend. QB Kirk Cousins rewound the clock and went for 378 passing yards, two TD's and an INT. The Packers enter desperate now to snap a three-game SU/ATS slide, but note that Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. First Green Bay stumbled at home to a then red-hot Lions team 34-20, and then the Packers lost their next two on the road at Las Vegas and Denver. Now back at home and in a crucial divisional contest here, I think Jordan Love will bounce back in friendly confines. Minnesota's defense is nothing to write home about, especially on the road. The Vikes did look decent last week, but I'm not ready to trust them at all at this point, and in my opinion, everything points to a letdown here on the road vs. their hungry division rival. Grab the points, the play is GREEN BAY. Good luck, NP |
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10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* UPSET BLOWOUT on the Panthers. I like the 0-6 Panthers to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire, meaning that "the points" are the correct call in this matchup. The outright is possible, but let's grab the field goal and the hook on this hungry home side. Houston is 3-3 overall, but just 1-2 on the road. Off a 20-13 win over New Orleans two weeks ago, will "rest" lead to "rust" for Houston's chemistry here this weekend?! The possibility definitely exists for sure! Carolina is coming out of its bye as well, but I'd say it could not have come at a better time. Do I think that the Panthers will now run the board and miraculously make the Playoffs? Of course not. But while I think the bye came at a bad time for the Texans, it could not have come at a better time for the reeling Panthers, who will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off this outright upset. CJ Stroud and Bryce Young are set for an epic "duel" in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is CAROLINA. Good luck, NP |
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10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +12.5 | Top | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG GOY on Georgia Tech. North Carolina is 6-1, but last week it fell 31-27 at home to UVA as a 24-point favorite. It was a major letdown for the Tar Heels immediatley after becoming bowl eligible and starting the season 6-0. And now I think that UNC is primed for another letdown here vs. Georgia Tech, as I believe it'll be caught looking ahead to its game vs. Duke up next. Te Yellow Jackets are 3-4 and will be looking to pull off the outright upset just like they did in last year's outright 21-17 victory over the Tar Heels as 22-point underdogs. GT doesn't have too many winnable games left on the schedule. Not that the oddsmakers are giving it much of a chance like this. As primarily a situational handicapper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is GEORGIA TECH. Good luck, NP |
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10-28-23 | Troy v. Texas State +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUNBELT GOW on Texas State. This is a great "situational" play. Both teams enter at 5-2, making this a very important game, as the victor will then become bowl eligible with the win. Troy is 2-1 on the road, most recently coming off a 19-0 win at Army two weeks ago, while Texas State also played two weeks ago in a 21-20 win over Louisiana Monroe. Texas State lost this game 17-14 last year, but easily covered the spread with the 16.5-points it was afforded in that one. I'm absolutely expecting a similar hard-fought game here as well. Troy QB Gunnar Watson struggled in his team's last win, going 10 of 21 for 227 yards and a TD. Bobcats' QB TJ Finley was 24 of 46 for 222 yards and two TD's in his team's latest victory. I think Troy's defensive numbers are skewed and the Trojans' defense is poised to finally be tested here. While I feel the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with TEXAS STATE. Good luck, NP |
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10-27-23 | Blues +1.5 v. Canucks | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Blues on the PUCKLINE. Vancouver is 4-2, but after a successful 3-2 road trip, including back-to-back victories as an underdog, I'm finally expecting Vancouver to have a bit of a letdown here. St. Louis is undervalued here for sure. It's off the 3-0 win at Calgary and has the potential to do the same here as well. The Canucks also welcome the Rangers to town tomorrow, making this a "look ahead" spot. At this price, I think we're getting awesome value on ST. LOUIS on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-26-23 | Syracuse +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GOW on Syracuse. Outright win? Very possible! Is this a contrarian play?! It sure is! But I love the way this one sets up for the Orange on Thursday and while the upset victory isn't out of the question, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Syracuse is 4-3, but it's now lost three straight SU/ATS in a row after a 41-3 loss at FSU as a 19-point dog last time out. Note though that the Orange are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. The Orange won this game 41-36 as 3.5-point dogs back in 2021. Virginia tech is 3-4. It's coming off a 30-13 win at home over Wake Forest. Both teams come out of their bye weeks. Despite the lop-sided loss last time out, the Orange still only allow 22.1 PPG. The Hokies are conceding 24.7. Kyron Drones is a true dual-threat QB for Virginia Tech, but now he faces one of the better defenses in the conference. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is SYRACUSE. Good luck, NP |
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10-25-23 | Jacksonville State v. Florida International +8 | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on FIU. While I'm not calling for the outright victory, I do think we're going to see a highly-competitive affair here and because of that, I'll be recommending to grab as many points as you can in this one. If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I'm a "situational" handicapper at heart, and this one sets up well for the 4-4 Florida International Panthers in my opinion. Jacksonville State just became bowl eligible last time out vs. WKU in a 20-17 outright win as a 7.5-point dog, and I'm predicting a now predictable mental letdown here. FIU is off a hard-fought 33-27 OT win at Sam Houston State as a 5-point dog and has a ton of momentum and confidence here. These teams haven't played since 2020, but Jacksonville State pulled off the upset as a ten-point dog. That was a long time ago, but I think that FIU now has a legitimtate chance at doing the same here to the visiting side. That said, in the end my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is FIU. Good luck, NP |
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10-24-23 | Lakers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. The Lakers made it to the Western Conference Final last year, as they really "came together" over the second half. They then lost to the Nuggets, who would go on to win their first ever NBA Championship in franchise history. The Nuggets are expected to be without forward Michael Porter Jr. in this one, as he also sat out the entire pre-season. Denver is going to be distracted here raising the banner, and I think the Lakers have revenge on their minds here right out of the gate and will be bring their "A" game on Opening Night. While I do think the outright win is a possibility, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with LA. Good luck, NP |
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10-24-23 | Devils v. Canadiens +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on the Canadiens on the PUCKLINE. I really just think that the oddsmakers are overlooking how improved Montreal is to start the season here, and while I do totally respect the Devils and what they did last season, I do also definitely feel that they're getting way too much respect in this one. Either way, the puckline option on this hungry and hot home side at this price is simply too good to turn down. New Jersey is 0-4 on the PL, while Montreal is 3-2. The Devils host Washington tomorrow night, so it sets up as a look-ahead spot as well for the visiting side. You may also want to "sprinkle" a little on the ML, but the official call is to grab the puck-and-a-half with MONTREAL on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-24-23 | New Mexico State v. Louisiana Tech -1.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA GOW on Louisana Tech. New Mexico State 5-3 overall, but just 2-2 on the road. Louisiana Tech is 3-5, and just 2-2 at home. With four games remaining, time is running out for the Bulldogs to become "bowl eligible" this season, and here's a home game that they're actually favored to win. This has become the most important game of the season for Louisiana Tech, in fact I'd argue it's "do or die." Conversely, after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, the Aggies are now primed for a letdown here finally in my estimation (and note that New Mexico State is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.)Â With four games remaining, the Aggies are going to get caught looking ahead here and a tiny bit complacent, and like I just outlined, the Bulldogs will be risking life and limb here to ensure a victory. I say the more motivated home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. Lay the points, the play is LOUISIANA TECH. Good luck, NP |
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10-21-23 | Central Florida +19.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 116 h 34 m | Show |
This is 10* BIG 12 GOY on UCF. Outright victory?! I'm absolutely NOT predicting that of course. But if you've followed me for any length of time, then you know I am primarily a "situational" and contrarian handicapper, and this one definitely falls right into my "wheel-house."Â The majority of the early public money is definitely on 6-0 SU/ATS Oklahoma here. But I think the Sooners will in fact get caught looking past UCF here to its much more difficult upcoming schedule at KU and OKST respectively after this. I don't know if this a letdown spot, but overall it looks suspiciously like a "trap" to me for the home side. No such luxury obviously for 3-3 UCF, which enters off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, most recently a 51-22 loss at the Jayhawks. But that was two weeks ago and now UCF comes in fresh and prepared for this contest as well (and note that the Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.)Â Bye weeks can work one of two ways. Either they come at a great time for a team that needs a break, or they come at a horrible time and disrupt chemistry. Rest leads to rust here for OKL as well after it comes out of its bye week also (after a thrilling 34-30 outright win over Texas as a 4-point dog.)Â UCF has scored 31 points in four of six games this year and I expect a very competitive battle until the final moments. No outright, but closer than what this spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is UCF. Good luck, NP |
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10-19-23 | James Madison v. Marshall +3.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN BELT GAME OF YEAR on Marshall. The 4-2 Herd won't be rolling over here for the 6-0 Dukes. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Dukes come in a tiny bit complacent here in my estimation after the great start and 28-point home win over Georgia Southern last time out. The Herd though will absolutely NOT be taking anything for granted here after B2B losses, including a 17-point setback to Georgia State in their latest action. This home game comes at an opportune time for Marshall. If it were on the road in this scenario, I would not be back in the Herd, but I can't understate how important I feel the home-field faithful will play in this contest. Clearly the outright is possible, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with MARSHALL. Good luck, NP |
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10-18-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SUPER BLOWOUT on the ASTROS on the RUNLINE. I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance here. The Rangers have been unbelievable to this point, but I predict the letdown here finally. Max Scherzer (13-7, 3.77 ERA) will make his first start since September 12th, and I say that "rest" leads to "rust" here. It's the playoffs and it's an entirely different animal despite his years of experience in this spot and I think it'll take him some time to acclimate to this level. Cristian Javier (1-0, 0.00 ERA) counters for the visitors, and he's yet to even allow a run over three career playoff starts. Overall he's 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 15 postseason appearances. I say that the Rangers run of good fortune finally comes to an end here. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is HOUSTON on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-18-23 | Charlotte FC v. Inter Miami | Top | 2-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOW on Charlotte FC on the spread option. This is a home and home set to end the year for the Clubs. Inter Miami has been eliminated and Messi isn't even playing in this one, away playing for his National team. Charlotte holds its playoff hopes in its own hands though and I'm expecting it to make the most of this opportunity. Inter Miami enters off a 1-0 loss to FC Cincinnati, while Charlotte FC enters off a crucial and momentum-building 2-0 win over the Chicago Fire. The Herons though got eliminated from playoff contention with their latest loss, and I just can't see the motivation here to play "spoiler" immediately after that collective mental letdown. Charlotte FC can make the playoffs if it wins out, and it would be the first time in club history if it does. With so much on the line, I think the correct call in this matchup is CHARLOTTE FC on the SPREAD option. Good luck, NP |
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10-17-23 | Middle Tennessee State +15 v. Liberty | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* CONFERENCE-USA GOW on MTSU. The Blue Raiders are just 2-5, but they won't be going down without a fight this week. MTSU had a difficult early schedule and I think i'll give Liberty everything it can handle on Tuesday night. Liberty is the cream of the crop of the conference, 6-0, including 4-0 in league play. MTSU on the other hand is 0-3 on the road. The contrarian in me absolutely loves MTSU here, with the majority of the public money quick to back the Flames and these amazing numbers. And they are great, but I think this spread is just now too large, as every "Joe public" bettor is quick to bet the favorite in this one, not taking into account MTSU's early tough schedule whatsoever, only looking at the wins and losses. The Blue Raiders also come off their second win and cover of the seaosn in a 31-23 victory over Louisiana Tech. QB Nicholas Vattiato had 248 yards on 23 of 29 passing, two TD's and no INT's. Liberty has been fantastic, but with a game at WKU next weekend, the team right below them in the standings, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but also a lookahead spot. Add those two factors together and you get "trap game" around these parts! Either way, I say that Vattiato keeps his team within striking distance down the stretch. No outright, but closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is MTSU. Good luck, NP |
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10-15-23 | Seahawks +3 v. Bengals | 13-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Seahawks. The Seahawks continue to find ways to win, including on the road and I feel that they have much more than just a "punchers chance" here against this inconsistent Bengals team. Seattle is 3-1 overall, including 2-0 on the road, while Cincinnati is 2-3, including 1-1 at home. The Hawks though come out of their bye and I say it was at a really opportune time. If Seattle pulls off the minor upset here it heads home at 4-1 for two straight winnable games (Cards and Browns.) Clearly the Bengals can't afford to look past anyone after their inconsistent start. I had Cincinnati last weekend in its 34-20 win at Arizona, but with a week off next week, followed by a game at the 49ers, the Bengals have lots of off-field scheduling issues which could have a mental effect on the home side on Sunday. Joe Burrow had a big game against the Cardinals poor secondary, but doing the same thing against Seattle will be more difficult. The Bengals have been terrible in stopping the run, which works in favor of the visitors as well. Seattle has struggled against the pass, but Burrow hasn't been himself this year. With a week off to prepare, I like Geno Smith and the HAWKS to deliver the goods. Good luck, NP |
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10-14-23 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +8 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 123 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Pittsburgh. No outright here, but I think that Pittsburgh will be risking life and limb to try and do just that, and while I expect that effort to ultimatley come up short here vs. the 6-0 Louisville Cardinals, I do think it'll be more than enough to comfortably cover with what I feel is a very healthy spread. Louisville is 6-0 cruising right now, especially with a bye game next week, followed by a home game vs. Duke at the end of the month. Off the 33-20 home win over Notre Dame as a six-point underdog, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot in my opinion, but also a "look ahead." No such luxury obviously for the 1-4 Panthers. With six games remaining, Pittsburgh has to try to find a way to pull off some upsets if it has any hopes of making a bowl game. I base my picks on many different things, but this particular one is a fantastic "situational" one. No outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is the PANTHERS! Good luck, NP |
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10-14-23 | Flyers +1.5 v. Senators | 2-5 | Loss | -155 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Flyers puckline. The Flyers are off the 4-2 road win at Columbus, and I think they offer great value as a live dog here in Canada's capital as well on Saturday afternoon. The Sens are off the 5-3 loss at Carolina, but with the Lightning coming to town tomorrow, this sets up as a "look ahead" for the home side as well. The Sens looked terrible defensively in the loss to the Hurricanes, and now they face another up-tempo and explosive offense and while I do think an outright is possible, the official call is to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insuarance. The play is PHILADELPHIA on the PUCKLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-10-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rangers | 1-7 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Orioles RUNLINE. The Rangers have been surging, but at some point they're going to have a letdown. I'm predicting tonight is that night. With their season on the line, I like the Orioles to dig deep here and to find a way to deliver the goods. However, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, ultimately I'm going to recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. It's the Rangers first home game so far in the playoffs, having gone 4-0 on the road. Baltimore though was also fantastic on the road this season, finishing 52-29 away from friendly confines. Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.35 ERA) has been great for the Rangers so far, but he's just in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today in my estimation. The visitors counter with Dean Kremer (13-5. 4.12) who will mke his first start since September 28th when he held the Red Sox scoreless on two hits over six innings. For all the reasons listed above, the play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-08-23 | Bengals -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOM on the Bengals. For all intents and purposes, this is a "must win" game for each side. An 1-4 hole would be difficult for even the Bengals to climb out of. Cincinnati and Joe Burrow clearly have some issues, but I think they will do enough here to earn the victory on the road vs. Arizona, which wasn't supposed to do much of anything this season anyways. The Bengals are off a 27-3 loss vs. Tennessee, a game in which they ere pegged as the 2.5-point favorite. Burrow continues to play through a calf injury. Clealry, to this point, he hasn't been "himself" yet this year. So far the Bengals are averaging 12.3 PPG, while allowing 23.5. The Cardinals have caught many by surprise early, as they're 3-1 ATS. Last week though they lost 35-16 to the 49ers. Joshua Dobbs has 815 passing yards and a 4:0 TD:INT, but the strength for the Cards' offense is the run game, behind James Conner. The Cards' defense though is pure trash, and this is the moment that I believe Burrow will finally put it all together. For the record, Arizona averages 22 points and allows 25. Arizona's pass defense ranks 24th, so it's now or never for the Bengals. Lay the points, the play is CINCINNATI. Good luck, NP |
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10-07-23 | Oregon State v. California +9.5 | Top | 52-40 | Loss | -109 | 124 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 GOM on Cal. Oregon State is 4-1 and Cal is 3-2, but this is one that favors the home side in my opinion. The Beavers are led by QB DJ Uiagalelei, who has 1,032 passing yards and an 8:4 TD:INT. The ground game has been the strength though, averaging 206.8 YPG. The defense concedes 15.6 PPG so far. Cal is looking for its third home win of the year. QB Sam Jackson V has 556 passing yards and a 5:2 TD:INT. The ground game though is also the strength of the Golden Bears offense, averaging 212.2 yards per game. It certainly doesn't get any "easier" for the Golden Bears moving forward, with a game at Utah after this, followed by a home game vs. USC, and then a game Oregon. The Bears need three more wins to become eligible, and this is one of the few games left on the schedule where they have an opportunity to pull off a legitimate outright victory. But I'm not suggesting that will happen. What I am trying to lay out here is the fact that Cal will definitely be giving a full four-quarter effort here, and I say that the ample evidence listed above firmly points to Oregon taking the foot off the gas in the second half and leaving the backdoor open just enough for the hungry home side to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is CAL. Good luck, NP |
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10-07-23 | Kentucky v. Georgia -14.5 | Top | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 122 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC GOY on Georgia. Both of these SEC teams are 5-0 SU, but Kentucky is 4-1 ATS, while Georgia is just 1-4 ATS. Clearly the Wildcats' competition to this point has to be called into question. Georgia hasn't had the stiffest competition either, but while the Bulldogs didn't cover last weekend, they definitely won an important one at Auburn by a score of 27-20 (-14 point fav.) Now here back at home, here's a contest that I see the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Last week Kentucky got a career-day out of RB Ray Davis, who carried 26 times for a whopping 280 yards and three TD's. Suffice it to say, I'm not expecting lightning to "strike twice" here this weekend. Last week Georgia held on, as QB Carson Beck went 23 of 33 for 313 yards with a TD. The difference here though for the visiting side is that for the first time all year it's going to be facing a really good defense. Georgia needs a break out game, and this is going to be it. Lay the points, the play is indeed on GEORGIA. Good luck, NP |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +12 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 104 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Oklahoma State. The 3-1 K-State Wildcats are at Oklahoma State to take on the 2-2 Cowboys, and in my opinion, this is one that favors the home side. K-State is 3-0 SU/ATS at home, but 0-1 SU/ATS on the road, falling 30-27 at Missouri as a 3-point favorite. I think the Wildcats will stumble here in this difficult road venue as well. Oklahoma State has been inconsistent over its first four games, but here's a golden opporunity to get back on track. Outright win? I'm not going to call that or anything here, but I do definitely expect the Cowboys to put up a much bigger fight than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. K-State is led by QB Will Howard, who has 1,072 yards passing and an 8:4 TD:INT. Overall the Wildcats allow 18.5 PPG. The Cowboys have won seven of their last nine at home. QB Alan Bowman has 513 yards passing, and a 2:3 TD:INT. THe ground game averages 121.8 YPG. The defense concedes 23.8 PPG. Despite that though, there's no way that K-State should be double-digit chalk favorite in this conference contest. I say the Wildcats do secure the outright victory, but it certainly won't be a cake walk. Grab the points, the play is Oklahoma State. Good luck, NP |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6 v. Commanders | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SIDE BLOWOUT on the BEARS on the MONEYLINE. I say that this is the week that the Bears finally post one in the win column. It's now or never, do or die. Chicago's playoff hopes are slim to none anyways, but there's no question that an 0-5 start would be the final nail in the coffin on the season and time to play for the 2024/25 campaign. Justin Fields had his best game of the season last year with a 4:1 TD:INT ratio. The Bears' defense fell apart down the stretch to an equally as desperate Broncos side, but they now catch a struggling offense at just the right time in my estimation. Sam Howell was decent last week for Washington as well, but the Commanders defense also completely collapsed on the road in the setback to the Eagles. Howell thogh has a 4:5 TD:INT and I'm giving Fields the big nod in this particular QB matchup this weekend. Fields took a big step forward last week, and with his coaches job on the line essentially, and his own as a possible starting QB in the future, I'm expecting Chicago to find a way to deliver the straight up win on the road this weekend. The Commanders are the more dejected team after their close but no cigar loss to the Eagles last week. The play is indeed CHICAGO on the MONEYLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3.5 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -108 | 58 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GOY on MTSU. Jacksonville State is 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS, while MTSU is 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS. Despite their records, the home side is the favorite here, but not favored by nearly enough in my estimation. The Blue Raiders are running out of time to make a serious run at a bowl bid, so it's essentially do or die this weekend here at home. Put up or shut up etc. Jacksonville State is coming off a thrilling 35-28 OT win at now 0-4 Sam Houston State is a 7-point favorite, and I predict a predictable letdown in this position. Logan Smothers has been decent iwth 474 yards passing, five TD's and zero INT's. MTSU has won four of its last six home games. QB Nicholas Vattiato has 1,168 yards passing and a 7:4 TD:INT. MTSU has played the more difficult schedule to this point. The oddsmakers are trying to tell us something here (opponents have been Alabama, Missouri, Colorado State and Western Kentucky.) The more desperate and battle-tested home side is going to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, while the visiting side looks finally ready for a big letdown. Lay the points, the play is MTSU. Good luck, NP |
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10-03-23 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | 1-4 | Loss | -147 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Marlins on the RUNLINE. Philadelphia earned the Top Wildcard in the NL, but I believe it'll have its hands full here in the opener of this three-game series. Philadelphia turns to Zach Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA), while the visitors counter with Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63.) Both starters looked strong down the stretch and each has had success against the other team. I say Miami throws its best shot here in Game 1 and in a contest that I see being decided late, or in extras, I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-03-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Diamondbacks on the RUNLINE. In a contest that I believe is very evenly matched, that will be decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72 ERA) will be looking to match his counterpart Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39.) Pfaadt can take confidence in the fact that Arizona is 6-4 the last ten in this series. Also note that in his final start of the regular season, Pfaadt gave up zero runs over six innings in a 3-0 win over the White Sox. Burnes gave up no runs over four innings in a 3-0 win over the Cards in his last outing. The extra time off here is beneficial for this Arizona offense that struggled over the final two weeks, and comes at exactly the wrong time for the Brewers who had considerable momentum going. For all the reasons listed above, the play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-03-23 | Rangers +1.5 v. Rays | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rangers RUNLINE. Texas has had time to reflect on falling short of the No. 1 seed, but it did recover over the final three weeks to reach this point, and I think it can make the most of this postseason opportunity. At least here in Game 1. Note that Texas is the only team to score more runs than the Rays and the Rangers are also tied for the AL homer lead. Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he enters on serious fire, 2-0 with a minuscule 0.67 ERA over his past four starts. Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53) counters for Tampa and he was just 3-3 with a 4.86 ERA in six September outings. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is TEXAS on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +2 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -112 | 83 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* MNF play on the Giants. Seattle is 2-1 SU/ATS, while New York is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. It's a big early game for both teams, but I'll argue a lot more for Daniel Jones and the Giants. I expect New York to play with an extreme sense of urgency, like its season is on the line on Monday night, and I expect that effort to be more than enough to secure the win and cover in the end. I grew up in the Pacific Northwest and the Seahawks are "my team." I really love what Geno Smith has done with his time there, but I just think the Hawks will now stumble here after back-to-back wins/covers. Seattle also has its by week next week, followed by a game at Cincinnati. So the Hawks have hit a part of their schedule in which it does come into play from a situational standpoint. New York has not played since Thursday in Week 3 so it also has a MAJOR "rest" advantage here. I say that comes into play here as well in Week 4. Saquon Barkley will likely miss this game again for New York, but I like Jones to finally settle down here at home and find a way to deliver a victory on Monday night. The play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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10-01-23 | Commanders +8 v. Eagles | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 116 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC EAST GOY on Washington. I played on Philadelphia on Monday last week. I also had the UNDER in the same game. The Eagles are 3-0 SU, but I think they take the foot off the gas here as they prepare for two straight road games after this. Washington comes in under the radar at 2-1. It took care of business against the Cards at home in Week 1 by a score of 20-16, and then it went on the road and upset the Broncos 35-33 as a 3.5-point underdog. Then last week it fell flat at home to the Bills 37-3. Note though that Washignton is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 3 or less points in as well. I think Philly coasts in the second half and I like the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is the COMMANDERS. (Additional analysis available) Good luck, NP |
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09-30-23 | Missouri v. Vanderbilt +14 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC GAME OF MONTH on Vanderbilt. No. 23 Missouri is 4-0 and heavily favored here on the road facing 2-3 Vanderbilt, but with a home game vs. LSU next weekend, no only do I believe that this is a "letdown" spot for the Tigers, but also a "look-ahead." And when you add those two factors together, that = "trap game." Vanderbilt is 2-3 SU, but 0-5 ATS. That includes 0-3 ATS at home. But that fact has only helped in now driving this spread a little bit too large in my opinion. This is a great situational play in my opinion. Clearly, I'm not calling for an outright victory, but I'm definitely expecting a much more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is VANDERBILT. Good luck, NP |
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09-30-23 | Michigan -17 v. Nebraska | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 122 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on Michigan. Michigan is 4-0 SU, but it's 0-3-1 ATS. Nebraska is 2-2 SU/ATS. I say that the Wolverines finally put it all together this week on the road though and not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. Nebraska is 2-2. Last week after the first few minutes the Wolverines fell behind 7-0 to Rutgers, and many wondered if there was a a possible upset about to happen. Then Michigan posted 31 unanswered points to win the game, but not cover the large spread. JJ McCarthy finished with 214 yards and a TD. The Huskers moved back to .500 with a 28-14 win over Louisiana Tech last Saturday. Heinrich Haarberg had 107 yards and a TD. The first TD Michigan allowed to the Scarlet Knights caught them off guard, otherwise it would have been a shutout. The Wolverines made essentially no mistakes last weekend and I just can't see the Huskers keeping pace down the stretch. The play is MICHIGAN. Good luck, NP |
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09-30-23 | Baylor +12.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 36-35 | Win | 100 | 120 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GOM on Baylor. Baylor is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS. UCF is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. Bears' QB Sawyer Robertson has 647 yards passing, one TD and four INT's. The Baylor run game averages 139.8 yards per game. The defense has been Baylor's strength so far, allowing 26.8 points and 376 yards per game. UCF is a big favorite here. It's won six of its last seven at home. Timmy McClain had 638 yards passing, five TD's and an INT. The Golden Knights ground game averages 260 yards per game, so clealry we can expect a lot of running in this one. Overall UCF is also strong defensively in the early going, allowing 20 points and 347 yards per game. I say the desperate visiting side keeps the foot on the gas until the final horn, and conversely, I say that UCF allows the backdoor open just enough to allow the Bears to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is BAYLOR. Good luck, NP |
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09-30-23 | Penn State v. Northwestern +26.5 | Top | 41-13 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GOW on Northwestern. Here's a great "situational" play. Am I predicting that the Wildcats will win this game outright? I'm clearly not. But do I think that at 4-0, PSU is a "little" overrated here by the oddsmakers and general betting public (more the public than the oddsmakers, who I believe are "leading" the "joes" here?) I absolutely do! I don't follow any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with your approach to each game and situation is the best way to make your selections. That said, I'm primarily a contrarian at heart, and also a strong "situational" capper. And to me, this one just sets up so well for the home dog. PSU is riding high at 4-0 SU/ATS, including a 31-0 home win over Iowa last time out, but with a week off before a game at home vs. lowly UMass, not only does this set up as letdown spot in my opinion, but also a "look ahead" position as well. Add those two factors together and you get "trap game." Northwestern is off the quality 37-34 OT win over Minnesota as an 11-point dog and I say it keeps that positive progression rolling here in a more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is NORTHWESTERN. Good luck, NP |
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09-25-23 | Rams v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Bengals. This is a great situational play. I'm primarily a situationally based handicapper, that uses trends and other parameters to make my picks. Here's a great common sense play. The Bengals signed Joe Burrow to the biggest contract in NFL history over the off-season, and so far Cincinnati is 0-2 SU/ATS. Teams that start the season 0-3 have virtually no hope of even reaching the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this is a "do or die" game for Cincinnati The Rams are 1-1 and have done better than most would have thought. They're 2-0 ATS. I think they're getting a little TOO much respect here on the road though. I say Burrow and company find a way to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. The play is CINCINNATI. Good luck, NP |
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09-25-23 | Eagles -4.5 v. Bucs | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 33 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Eagles. The Bucs are 2-0 SU/ATS and they've gotten better than expected play from Baker Mayfield. I'm expecting Tampa (and Mayfield), to come back down to Earth here though facing this tough Eagles' secondary. This is a classic "letdown/look-ahead" spot as well for the Bucs, with a huge divisional matchup at the Saints next weekend. The Eagles are 2-0 SU and 1-1-1 ATS. WIth a home game against Washington, and a favorable schedule upcoming, I think that Jalen Hurts and company pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. Lay the points, the play is PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP |
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09-24-23 | Bears +13 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST ON the Bears. Both teams have struggled with consistency so far. The Bears are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS, while the Chiefs are 1-1 SU/ATS. Teams that start 0-3 have almost zero chance of making the playoffs, so Justin Fields and company will be risking life and limb to try and pull off the upset here. Just like the Lions did here on Opening night. What's up with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes? Injuries? New faces and lack of chemistry? Something else, or all of the above? Who knows, but it's safe to say that the defending champs definitely look "out of sorts" here early on. KC has upcoming road games at the Jets and Vikes, setting this up as a potential look-ahead, or "trap" game for the home side. I say the Bears play their best game of the season, and whether or not that's actually good enough to pull off an upset will be seen, but either way, I expect this one to be a lot closer than what this larger spread is suggesting once it's all said and done. Grab the points, the play is CHICAGO. Good luck, NP |
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09-24-23 | Titans v. Browns -3 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Browns. After a come-from-behind 27-24 win over the Chargers in Week 2, I think the Titans stumble badly here on the road against this hungry home side. The Browns are coming off a frustrating 26-22 loss to Pittsburgh, with QB DeShaun Watson making a couple of mistakes down the stretch. Ryan Tannehill has trouble with consistency from week to week, and can't be trusted on the road. Cleveland is without Nick Chubb moving forward, but this play is all about Watson for me. The Browns crushed Cincinnati at home in Week 1, and I envision a similar beatdown here on Sunday afternoon. Lay the points, the play is CLEVELAND! Good luck, NP |
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09-24-23 | Saints +2 v. Packers | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 71 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Saints. The Saints are in a two-way tie for top spot in the NFC South, and with two games under his belt now under center, I like Dereck Carr to get the better of his counterpart on Sunday. The Pacers are 1-1 after falling apart down the stretch in a 25-24 setback at Atlanta. Now back at home, I don't think that "familiar surroundings" will help Jordan Love and company. New Orleans is in fact 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. The Saints are also 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the NFC North. Love has six TD's through two games, but just a 55.8% completion rate. The Saints are one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. New Orleans has effectively shut down the first two QB's its faced in Ryan Tannehill and Bryce Young, and I believe the unit will be a difference-maker in the outcome of this one as well. While clearly the outright win is a possibility, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with NEW ORLEANS. Good luck, NP |
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09-24-23 | Texans +9 v. Jaguars | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC SOUTH GOW on Houston. Outright victory? I'm not calling for that. But I do think the Jags will take the foot off the gas in the second half and allow the hungry 0-2 Texans enough room to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Houston looked better in its 31-20 home loss to the Colts last week, and they catch the Jags at the correct time here in Week 3 in my estimation, as I believe Jacksonville will get caught looking ahead to its "back to back" weeks in London starting next week vs. the Falcons. It's the first time a team will play B2B weeks across the Pond, and I am going to take full advantage of this very real situational factor working in favor of the visiting side. As stated off the top, no outright win or anything, but way closer than what this spread is suggesting. Grab the points, the play is the TEXANS! Good luck, NP |
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09-24-23 | Broncos +6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-70 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE SHOCKER on the Broncos. I'm a contrarian at heart, and I'm a big "situational" capper. This particular play fits the bill perfectly! The Broncos are 0-2 SU/ATS, while the Dolphins are 2-0 SU/ATS. Both of Miami's wins have come on the road. Both were tough victories. Now back at home, I say a classic "letdown" is in order here for the Dolphins. And then when you add in the fact that they have a game at Buffalo the following Sunday, not only is this a natural "letdown" spot for Miami, but it's also a "look-ahead" positoin as well. Letdown + look-ahead = "trap game!" No such luxury for the Broncos, as teams that start 0-3 have almost zero chance of even making the playoffs. Russell Wilson and company will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off the upset. I'll stop short in calling for that upset though, but I do think it'll come "down to the wire." Grab the points, the play is DENVER. Good luck, NP |
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09-23-23 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh +7.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GOM on Pittsburgh. UNC comes to Pittsburgh sitting at 3-0, while the Panthers are just 1-2. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. The Tar Heels are led by Drake Maye, wh has 891 yards and four TD's. He also has four INT's as well though. They're off a 31-13 win over Minnesota. It's interesting to note as well that UNC has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games vs. conference opponents. Pitt is hungry, off back-to-back losses after falling 17-6 to WVU. Phil Jurkovec is going to keep his team competitive here in Week 4, so far he has a 4:3 TD:INT. One other interesting thing to note here is that the home team has won each of the last four games between these sides. That said, I'm for sure not calling for the outright upset or anything, but I'm definitely expecting a very tight battle until the end. Grab the points, the play is PITTSBURGH. Good luck, NP |
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09-23-23 | Nevada +17.5 v. Texas State | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 75 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF GOW on Nevada. Texas State on paper is clearly the better team, and I'm not in any way trying to say that Nevada will win this game outright, but all signs point to a much tighter battle in my opinion than what this larger spread is suggesting. Texas State is 2-1, and Nevada is 0-3. The Wolfpack won't be rolling over here though as they desperately try to get off the schneid and pull off the upset. They almost pulled off the upset last time out, coming up short in a 31-24 setback to Kansas. The offense revolves around the run, led by Sean Dollars, who has 120 rushing yards and two TD's so far. Dating to last year, Nevada has lost 13 straight. Texas State comes in over-confident after a 77-34 dismantling of FCS Jackson State. I'll argue though that the 34 points given up is what really stands out in that score. TJ Finley has 760 yards and six TD's, but those numbers are skewed due to the level of competition thus far. The Wolfpack have faced some tough competiont so far this year and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one being much more competitive than what the oddsmakers have led us to think. So grab the points, the play is NEVADA. Good luck, NP |
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09-23-23 | Rice v. South Florida +2.5 | 29-42 | Win | 100 | 73 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on USF. USF is 1-2 SU/ATS, while Rice is 2-1 SU/ATS. I can't understate how important I think that the "home field" advantage will be in this particular matchup. This is the Owls first true road game, and a predictable letdown is imminent in my opinion. JT Daniels has been decent with 805 yards passing, and an 8:2 TD:INT so far for Rice. Note though that if history is any precedence, then Rice can't be liking its chances too much here, despite being listed as the favorite, as note that the Owls have lost each of their last ten road games in September. Bulls' QB Byrum Brown has 450 yards passing and a 4:3 TD:INT. The offense of course revolves around a strong run game though that comes in averaging 225.7 yards per game, with Brown leading the way on the ground so far with 275 rushing yards and four rushing TDs. The Bulls took Alabama down to the wire. Enough said. Well I do absolutely believe the outright win is possible, in the end the official play is to grab as many points as you can. The play is USF. Good luck, NP |
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09-23-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan -24 | Top | 7-31 | Push | 0 | 71 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GOW on Michigan. Both teams are 3-0 straight-up, but Rutgers is 3-0 ATS, while Michigan is 0-3 ATS. I say that lop-sided stat changes today though as I expect the Wolverines to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one as they look to give the Scarlet Knights a big dose of reality. Rutgers is off to a 3-0 start for a third straight year after getting the better of VT by a score of 35-16 last weekend. RB Kyle Manangai had a career-high three TDs, but I believe he'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball today in this hostile road venue. The Wolverines are off a 31-6 win over Bowling Green. That was the third and final game of Jim Harbough's suspension, so expect the home side to come out extra motivated here to lay a beating on its overmatched opponent. JJ McCarthy had two TD's last weekend, but also three picks. That's an area of concern, but in the end I just think the pace in which the home side plays with, combined with the smothering defensive play will just be too much for Rutgers to handle down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is MICHIGAN. Good luck, NP |
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09-21-23 | Giants +10.5 v. 49ers | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-DIVISIONAL NFC GOM on the Giants. The Giants are 1-1 SU, including 1-0 on the road after escaping with a 31-28 victory at Arizona in Week 2. New York made huge half time adjustments, scoring all 31 of its points in the second half. I say for sure it's able to keep that momentum rolling here now. NY is 0-2 ATS, and while I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset here, I do think that NY and Danny Dimes will be competitive enough down the stretch to cover with the large spread that they're being afforded. San Francisco returns home for the first time this season. Last week it won at division rival LA by a score of 30-23, the Rams kicking a FG with only 4 seconds left to ruin the 0.5-point cover for most people (that's IF you had San Fran, I actually had the Rams, so admittedly "lucked out" on that one.) The bottom line here is that this is just a few too many points to be giving up in my opinion, as New York definitely showed me something in the second half there last week on BOTH sides of the field. Grab the points, the play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams +8 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 119 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC WEST GOW on the Rams. They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean more to the home side. And that's the case here. Both teams looked good in their openers, but I just feel that San Francisco is getting too much respect here vs. an underrated Rams side. LA looked good on both ends of the field in its 30-13 win at Seattle. The 49ers also looked dominant in their 30-7 win at Pittsburgh. Now another big favorite on the road for a second week, I think San Francisco will be less explosive here. Combined with the fact that I think the Rams are for sure being undervalued by the oddsmakers, the correct call for me in this matchup is indeed on LA. Good luck, NP |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -103 | 117 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC NORTH GOW on the Bengals. Baltimore started slowly last weekend, and then it pulled away for a comfortable 25-9 win and cover as a 9.5-point favorite in Week 1. Now on their first true road game of the season vs. a division opponet that was humbled 24-3 in Week 1 on the road in Cleveland, my advice here is to NOT read too much into the results of either of these sides. Overreaction to Week 1 results is something the bookmakers always try to take advantage of. The Ravens had plenty of issues against a really weak team in Houston. The Bengals clearly have issues of their own as well, but I say Joe Burrow and company make the necessary adjustments and find a way to post a bounce-back effort here at hom in Week 2 of this important divisional contest. Lay the points, the play is CINCINNATI. Good luck, NP |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -107 | 116 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Jaguars. Here's a great situational play for Jacksonville, which plays with revenge here after falling 27-20 to the Chiefs back in the AFC divisional round. KC is without Travis Kelce, and it has nother new faces in the offense, and chemistry is clearly an issue after the Week 1 loss at home to the Lions. The Jags though looked good in the win and cover on the road against a tougher-than-expected Colts team. With the added issue with the weather from the Hurricanes, I thikn that Trevor Lawrence and the home side can take advantage. That said, let's grab the points here with JACKSONVILLE. Good luck, NP |
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09-17-23 | Bears +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC NON-DIVISION GOY on the Bears. Let's not overreact to the Week 1 results from either side. The Bears looked terrible, and the Bucs looked "ok." Chicago fell apart down the stretch in its 38-20 home loss to the Packers, but the Bears will have less of a downfield threat to worry about in Baker Mayfield. The Bucs did manage the 20-17 road win at Minnesota as 4.5-point underdogs, but Tampa still has more questions than answers in severl facets as well. I just don't think that Justin Fields and company truly are as bad as what we saw over the first three quarters of Week 1. While I do think the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is CHICAGO. Good luck, NP |
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09-16-23 | Colorado State +23.5 v. Colorado | 35-43 | Win | 100 | 147 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on Colorado State. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but with the majority of the World now believing that Prime Time is the best coach in the country, I feel that Colorado State will have an opportunity to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Give the Buffs credit, they've looked great so far in back-to-back victories and covers. But with a game at high-powered Oregon up next, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but then also a "look ahead."Â Colorado will take the foot off the gas in the second half, and CSU, which hasn't played since a 50-24 loss to Washington State two weeks ago, will have a great opportunity in the latter stages to keep this one competitive. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is COLORADO STATE. Good luck, NP |
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09-16-23 | Minnesota +6.5 v. North Carolina | 13-31 | Loss | -100 | 141 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MONEY BLOWOUT on Minnesota. This one sets up great for Minnesota from a situational stand point. Minnesota is 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS. It's been big favorites in each of its two wins at home, and now on the road I think it's finally the Gophers who have been underrated by the bookmakers here. UNC is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS after holding on for a 40-34 OT win over Appalachian State. And with a bye week, before three straight home games vs. conference opponents, including the high-powered Orange when they return, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it's also a "look ahead." This game is going to be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever taem has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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09-16-23 | Penn State v. Illinois +15.5 | Top | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GOY on Illinois. Here's a great "situational" play. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I definitely feel this is a few too many points for Penn State to be giving up on the road here. The Nittany Lions are off B2B blowout wins, both SU and ATS, most recently annihilating Delaware 63-7 as 44-point favorites. But with a game at home to Iowa next week, not only do I feel this is a letdown spot, but also a "look-ahead." And in my World, that = trap game. Illinois is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It fell 34-23 at KU last week, after holding on for a 30-28 home win over a much-better than advertised Toledo side. This is Penn State's first true road game of the year and I feel the Lions will struggle to contain this hungry Illini team at home down the stretch. No outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is ILLINOIS. Good luck, NP |
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09-16-23 | Kansas State v. Missouri +6 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 138 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ROUT on Missouri. This one sets up great from a situational stand-point for Missouri in my opinion. The Tigers are 2-0 SU, but they're -2 ATS. It's been two mediocre outings in a row for Missouri State, but now I'm expecting a much better effort here this week against a K-State side a little over-rated in my opinion. K-State is 2-0 SU and ATS, but with a date at home vs. UCF next week, not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it's also a look-ahead. While I do feel an outright is possible, the official is to grab as many points as you can. The play is MISSOURI. Good luck, NP |
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09-15-23 | Utah State v. Air Force -9 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 122 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF MONTH on Air Force. I love the way this one sets up for Air Force. Utah State is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS after destroying Idaho State 78-28 last time out. But I just can't see the Aggies keeping pace on the raod here against this high-powered option offense of Air Force. Utah State lost 24-14 at Iowa, and I'm expecting an even bigger blowout here. The Falcons are 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS. Last time out Air Force held on for a 13-3 win over Sam Houston State on a neutral field. Air Force was upset 34-27 at Utah State last year as an 11-point favorite, so the revenge-factor also comes into play here. The Aggies won't be able to keep pace down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is AIR FORCE. Good luck, NP |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +7 v. Eagles | Top | 28-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 39 m | Show |
10* Vikes (GOW) Minnesota got tripped up in Week 1 at home to the Bucs by a score of 20-17, but with their backs against the wall, I like the Vikes to keep this one closer than what this spread is suggesting. I just think Kirk Cousins is going to have his opportunities here to take advantage of an overrated Eagles' secondary, which struggled to contain Mac Jones on the road last week. Cousings was 34 of 44 for 344 yards and two TD's last week. Jones had 306 yards passing last week. The Vikings defense is going to keep Jalen Hurts "honest" this week and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to, at the very least, a solid cover. Grab the points, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +3 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Jets. We keep hearing every year, that THIS is the season for the "Bills." But something always happens, and the Bills stumble in the playoffs. The Jets didn't assemble this team and bring over Aaron Rodgers to lose, and I believe New York's tough defensive play, combined with strong running game will prove to be too much for Buffalo to keep up with. Josh Allen is great, but so too is Aaron Rodgers. This is a huge game for both QB's, but I'd say it means a lot more to Rodgers. While I do think the outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with NEW YORK. Good luck, NP |
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09-10-23 | Packers +1 v. Bears | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* NFC NORTH GOM on the Packers. It's a big divisional matchup between two teams that have big aspirations heading into this season. The big matchup here features the men under center with Justin Fields for the Bears, and Jordan Love for the Packers. Fields put together a much better season last year, and he's expected to take another step forward this year. He lacks a passing game though, and big time play makers around him. Chicago has just as many question marks heading into the season as Green Bay, except most of its issues are on the defensive end. Love is actually older than Fields, and I think he'll be able to easily exploit this weak Bears' secondary. While clearly the outright win is possible, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with GREEN BAY here in Week 1. Good luck, NP |
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09-10-23 | Raiders v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -120 | 75 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC WEST GOM on the Broncos. Two teams with big aspirations collide with each other in Denver this weekend, but in my opinion this one favors the home side. Jimmy Garoppolo is under center for the Raiders, and much like Russell Wilson experienced in his first year with Denver, I think he'll struggle with his new team for a bit. Probably not nearly as bad as Wilson's disastrous effort, but I think he'll be much better this season working under Sean Payton. The Broncos strength was on defense last year, and I think that unit will be up to slowing down Josh Jacobs out of the gate. Lay the points, the play is DENVER. Good luck, NP |
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09-10-23 | Bengals v. Browns +3 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC NORTH GOM on the Browns. They say divisional contests are always the most important, and they almost always mean more to the home side. And that's the case here as I expect DeShaun Watson, who enters his first full season for the Browns, along with the plethora of new weapons he has around him, including Amari Cooper, to pull off the win here at home on Opening Day. The Browns have a great run game and defense and I think that they'll keep Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase playing from behind throughout in this one. Both teams have some issues coming into the season, but I say that "home field" turns out to be the difference-maker in this one. The play is CLEVELAND. Good luck, NP |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC SOUTH GOM on the Colts. I think this divisional matchup will come right down to the wire, and not be "easy" for either side. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Colts haven't won a season-opener since 2013, but they did rally last year to "tie" Houston. These two teams split last eason, with each team winning at home. I say that home field comes into play here in Week 1 as well this season. The Jags are in unchartered territory here now, the division favorite behind the improved play of Trevor Lawrence. I was a big fan of Lawrence and the Jags last year, but now I'm feeling as if they could be a bit over-hyped coming into this season. Yes, it's a weak division, but Lawrence is still very young and I say the book is still out on him. For now anyways. The Colts will be breaking in No. 4 overall draft pick Athony Richardson and I think he'll do enough to keep his team involved late. Grab the points, the play is INDIANAPOLIS. Good luck, NP |
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09-09-23 | Oregon v. Texas Tech +6.5 | Top | 38-30 | Loss | -105 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Texas Tech. The Ducks are 1-0 and the Red Raiders are 0-1. Oregon dismantled Portland State by a score of 81-7, but let's not overreact to that lop-sided result. They posted 729 yards of offense, but now the level of competition goes up considerably. The Red Raiders suffered a 35-33 OT loss to Wyoming as 13.5-point favorites. Once again, I'll caution to not "overreact" to that result. Overreacting to results after Week 1, either good or bad, is the quickest way to the poor house, and it's something the books know to look for as they try to bait unseasoned bettors into "overreacting" to a crazy Week 1 result. It was a perfect storm of blunders for the Red Raiders last weekend, who actually outgained the Cowboys 431-320 in the humbling upset. While the outright is possible in my opinion, I'm grabbing the points. The play is TEXAS TECH. Good luck, NP |
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09-09-23 | Ohio +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG GOM on Ohio. Ohio is 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ATS. I think the Bobcats though have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright, but my official call here will be to grab as many points as you can. So far Bobcat QB CJ Harris has thrown for 248 yards, two TD's and one INT. The ground game has been fantastic in averaging 150.5 YPG. Defensively the Bobcats have looked stout so far as well, allowing 15 points and 257.5 yards per game on offense. FAU crushed Monmouth in its opener, but I think it'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball today. Casey Thompson so far has 280 yards passing, five TDs and 1 INT. And overall the Owls are allowing 20 points and 361 yards per game. In a contest that I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points. The play is OHIO. Good luck, NP |
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09-09-23 | UTEP v. Northwestern +2 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 73 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ROUT on Northwestern. Northwestern underwhelmed last week, but I expect it to pull away for the comfortable win and cover here at home in Week 2. UTEP bounced back from a Week 0 loss to beat Incarnate Word by a score of 28-14 last week, but an immediate return to mediocrity seems imminent in my opinion. The Miners have still lost 13 of their last 14 road games in September. The Wildcats were stifled 24-7 at Rutgers, but I expect this offense to bounce back. Ben Bryant had 169 yards and two INT's, facing a better than advertised defense. Defensively though the Wildcats looked stout I though and I think the unit wil be a difference-maker in this one. After 12 straight losses dating to last year, I expect NORTHWESTERN to finally step up here and deliver at home. Lay the points, the play is NORTHWESTERN. Good luck, NP |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Colorado | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on Nebraska. Colorado pulled off a 45-42 upset win over TCU last week, and the entire World has lost its mind. Deion and Shedeur Sanders looked great in that game, but let's not overreact here. Sanders finished with 510 passing yards and four TDs and 565 offensive yards. Nebraska wet the bed in its 13-10 loss to Minnesota last week. It had a 7-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Once again, let's not overreact too much to early results here, either negative or positive, after Week 1. On paper Nebraska is the "better" team. And I expect a big bounce-back for the visiting side here in Week 2, and a letdown from Colorado. Grab the points, the play is NEBRASKA. Good luck, NP |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Duke. There are always super high expectations for the Clemson Tigers. If they aren't in the Championship game, then essentially the season is viewed as a failure, despite how well the team actually did. But expectations are also high in Duke this year after the Blue Devils finished 9-4 and a Bowl win under first-year head coach Mike Elko. Riley Leonard won't be intimidated here by Clemson, as he's already battle-tested after last season's stellar performance, throwing for 2,967 yards to go along with 20 TDs and six INTs. Cade Klubnik won't have a "cakewalk" time here on the road. Yes, the Tigers are loaded everywhere and I'm not predicting an outright win here or anything for Duke, but the Blue Devils' strength on defense was in their secondary. They also have two great safeties in Brandon Johnson and Jaylen Stinson. In a contest that I see being competitive late, I'm grabbing the points. The play is DUKE. Good luck, NP |
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