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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-28-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of capable southpaws square off against each other in this National League series on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, runs definitely will be at a premium. The Cubs go with Jose Quintana, while the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw. The pitchers: Quintana is so far 6-6 with a 4.26 ERA. Quintana comes in off an outing to forget against the Reds on Friday, giving up four runs off nine hits with two walks over five frames while striking out three. I think it’s important to note though that Quintana has been solid on the road with a 3.22 ERA, compared to a shaky 6.00 ERA at home. Kershaw is so far 1-4 with a 2.94 ERA. Kershaw most recently gave up two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out four over three innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. Kershaw was under a pitch count in his first start back from the DL, but he’ll be given a bigger leash this afternoon. Note that he owns a 2.10 ERA in all “day” games to this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 against southpaws this year, while LA has seen the total go “under” in 20 of 27 against left-handed starters this season. Expect a tight battle into the latter innings and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the afternoon. |
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06-28-18 | Belgium v. England OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 195 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Last time out Belgium demolished Tunisia 5-2 to move to 2-0 in group action, while England smashed Panama 6-1, also pushing its record to a perfect 2-0. These countries have already moved onto the Knock-Out round, but each will be eager to cap off the group stage with another victory. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the Tournament so far and everything points to more offensive fireworks on Tuesday afternoon. The teams: The Belgians scored 43 goals over ten games during qualifying. Romelu Lukaku has been impressive early on in this tournament, but Belgium will also be leaning on Kevin De Bruyne, as he posted 11 goals during qualifying, while also scoring 16 goals for Man U this season. Harry Kane leads the 2018 World Cup in goals scored after posting three in his team’s demolition of Panama. Kane will be forced to keep up his frantic pace facing the high-flying Belgians this afternoon. The pick: Belgium has been susceptible on the back end, so England’s game plan should be to push the pace and attack. The English haven’t been tested defensively yet, but the Three Lions face their most difficult task yet. When you add it all up, the “over” is the correct call in my opinion. |
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06-28-18 | Diamondbacks -147 v. Marlins | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Zack Greinke’s ERA and WHIP are aligning with his career numbers for the Diamondbacks as we approach the half way point. Marlins rookie Trevor Richards has looked brilliant at times and very pedestrian in others so far this season. While Richards’ potential seems tremendous at this point, I still think that the veteran Greinke is the correct call in this matchup. The pitchers: Greinke is so far 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA. Greinke comes in off a victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday, giving up two hits with seven strikeouts over six scoreless. Greinke threw 53 of his 88 pitches for strikes on his way to his eighth quality start of the year. Richards is so far 2-4 with a 4.91 ERA. Richards comes in off a strong outing against Colorado on Saturday, giving up one run off three hits over six innings. Starts like that though have been few and far between (just his third quality outing out of nine trips to the hill) though and while he’s been better at home than on the road, I still think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this matchup. The pick: Because take it for what you will, but Arizona is already 3-1 (+1.7 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is 5-12 (-5.2 units) as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I expect Greinke to continue his progression with another strong outing. Lay the price. |
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06-27-18 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played to a low-scoring battle in San Francisco’s 3-2 victory last night and in my opinion, everything once again points to a “duel” in the Bay on Wednesday. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner. The pitchers: Freeland is so far 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Freeland most recently went six innings and gave up two runs while striking out four in a win over the Mets on Thursday. Over 90.1 frames of work he’s posted a 77:31 K/BB. Bumgarner is so far 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA. Most recently he gave up three hits while walking two and striking out eight over eight scoreless in his first win of the year over the Padres on Thursday. Bumgarner threw 69 of his 100 pitches for strikes and after two mediocre outings after returning from the DL, the veteran clearly looks poised for another strong performance. The pick: Dual-ing southpaws on Wednesday night. Recent form by Freeland suggests that he can continue his success, while Bumgarner is no doubt rounding into form as well. I’m expecting these horses to battle into the latter frames and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the night. |
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06-27-18 | Diamondbacks -152 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona grabbed the opener of this series 5-3 last night and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The Diamondbacks go with Robbie Ray, while the Marlins go with Wei-Yin Chen. The pitchers: Ray is so far 2-0 with a 4.88 ERA. Ray completed two of three scheduled re-gab starts, but he has been given the green light to return to the rotation early. Ray was 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA last season, including 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA on the road. Ray will likely be on a bit of a count today, but I still think he’ll be more efficient than his erratic counterpart. Chen is so far 2-4 with a 6.70 ERA. Most recently he was shelled for seven earned runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the Rockies on Friday. To go along with his terrible ERA, Chen also sports a horrid 1.69 WHP over 49.2 frames of work. He’s been better at home than on the road, but he’s still an atrocious 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is already 17-9 (+9.4 units) against southpaws this year, while Miami is just 10-12 against left-handed pitching to this point. I’m banking on Ray to make the most of his time on the hill and for Chen to continue his steady decline down the proverbial crapper. Lay the price. |
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06-27-18 | Yankees v. Phillies +119 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 119 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday’s 6-0 setback, I think the home side offers great value to bounce back in the underdog role on Wednesday. The Yankees go with Luis Cessa, while the Phillies go with Zach Eflin. The pitchers: Cessa is so far 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Cessa enters the rotation as a temporary sixth starter due to some upcoming scheduling issues. Cessa has shown plenty of promise, but he’s so far made all four of his appearances out of the bullpen. Note that he’ll be capped at around 70 to 80 pitches tonight. Eflin is so far 5-2 with a 3.44 ERA. Eflin grabbed the victory Friday over the Nationals after allowing two runs and one walk with five strikeouts over five frames of work. Over his last four starts Eflin has gone 4-0 and posted a 2.28 ERA with 22 strikeouts and four walks spanning 23.2 innings of work. To go along with his overall respectable ERA, Eflin also has a sharp 9.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 49.2 frames. He’s been consistent at home a well with a 2-1, 3.63 ERA record. The pick: The Yankees have an impressive line-up, but Eflin has a major advantage in this interleague matchup. Great value, play on the revenge-minded Phillies. |
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06-27-18 | Brazil -167 v. Serbia | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Add Brazil to the list of World Cup heavyweights which has so far to this point underwhelmed (also Germany, France and Argentina.) After drawing in their opening game, the Brazilians managed a 2-0 win over Costa Rica, with both goals coming in stoppage-time. Serbia has the odds stacked against it here, needing an outright win to advance after falling 2-1 to Switzerland last time out. A win assures Brazil top spot in the group and a possible date against Germany in the second round. The teams: The Selecao need just one point to qualify for the second round, but clearly Brazil won’t be leaving anything to chance. Neymar potted his first goal of the World Cup in the latest victory, his 56th for his country. Brazil has not been defeated since a friendly back in August and the 1-1 draw with Switzerland ended a run of clean sheets. Serbia beat Costa Rica, but it came out flat in the second half against the Swiss and I think that collapse is going to weigh heavily collectively here as well. The Serbs had their golden opportunity to collect a full six points before facing off against Brazil, but they blew it. Captain Aleksandar Kolarov scored the winning goals against Costa Rica. The pick: Brazil beat Serbia 1-0 in a friendly back in 2014, but I’m expecting a much more decisive outcome here. Neymar is on the scoreboard and Philippe Coutinho has three goals in his last three games. I look for the Selecao to put together their finest effort so far as they get ready for the Round of 16 and a potential blockbuster matchup with the Germans. Lay the price. |
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06-27-18 | Sweden v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are hungry for a victory. Mexico has so far claimed all six points with a 1-0 upset of Germany, followed by a 2-1 victory over South Korea. Sweden though comes in off a disappointing 2-1 loss to Germany, a game in which it held a 1-0 half-time lead. Neither of these teams is known for its overpowering offense and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another lower-scoring affair in the end in this one as well. The teams: Mexico needs just one point to secure top spot in this group, so a draw would be completely satisfactory. The Mexicans have now lost just two of their last ten games across all competitions. Sweden’s rock solid defense was cracked in stoppage-time last time out by a 95th minute miracle goal. Sweden is now tied with Germany on three points. Germany plays South Korea next, so Sweden will be looking for the outright victory today. The pick: But that’s easier said than done against Mexico, which completely shut down the high-flying Germans and which has conceded just one goal so far through two fixtures. Mexico has plenty of talent, but note that it’s only scored three goals so far itself. Five of Mexico’s last six games across all competitions have fallen “under” the number and Sweden has kept a clean sheet in three of its last four. This one has “under” written all over it. |
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06-26-18 | Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards scored the 4-0 win in the opener of this inter-league series and I think that runs will once again be at a premium on Tuesday night. The Tribe go with their ace Corey Kluber, while St. Louis goes with Carlos Martinez. The pitchers: Kluber is so far 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the White Sox on Wednesday, giving up one hit with one walk while striking out seven over seven scoreless. Kluber would throw 65 of his 96 pitches for strikes, while also inducing 15 swinging strikes. Kluber has now posted quality efforts in 15 of his 16 trips to the hill this year. Martinez is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. Martinez hasn’t been at his best since returning from the DL, most recently he allowed seven runs off eight hits while striking out three over four innings in a setback to Milwaukee on Thursday. Martinez though has the track record and pedigree to return to form and he has to be feeling confident here, as he comes in with a sharp 2.29 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 12 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while St. Louis has seen the total go “under” in seven of eight inter-league contests (note as well that the Indians have seen the total go “under” in five of seven inter-league games.) This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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06-26-18 | Storm +6 v. Lynx | Top | 79-91 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota is the defending champ, but it comes into this one sitting at 7-6. The Lynx traded forward Natasha Howard to the Storm in the preseason and it’s clearly taken a toll on their chemistry to open the 2018 campaign. The Storm are 10-4 and they come in on a four-game win streak. Suffice it to say, I think Seattle can smell the blood in the water. The teams: Howard is expected to get her ring before the start of this game and then I’m expecting her to bring the thunder against her former team. Howard played in all 34 games the past two season with Minnesota, a key part in getting the Lynx to a pair of trips to the WNBA Finals. Howard is so far averaging 14.1 points, 6.8 boards and 1.9 blocks in 26.8 minutes for Seattle. Other stand out players include Sue Bird, Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd. The Lynx come in off an 88-73 win over lowly Las Vegas on Sunday, led by 23 points from Maya Moore. Sylvia Fowles added 20 points and ten boards. The pick: Note though that Seattle has been at its best on the road for bettors this season with a strong 4-1 ATS record. Conversely, Minnesota has been downright horrible in front of the home town crowd this year with a 1-4 ATS record. I’m banking on Howard and the Storm carrying over their momentum here. |
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06-26-18 | Mariners -140 v. Orioles | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle came out on top 5-3 yesterday and I believe it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors go with James Paxton, while the home side goes with Kevin Gausman. The pitchers: Paxton is so far 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA. Paxton enters off an outing to forget against the Yankees, giving up four earned runs over five innings. The hard-throwing southpaw would have nine strikeouts though. Another bright spot was that his fast ball touched 97 MPH at times. While he hasn’t been at his absolute best of late, I don’t think there’s any reason to push the panic button at this point. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA on the road this season. Gausman is so far 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA. Gausman most recently allowed two runs and four walks with four hits while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Thursday. Gausman hasn’t won since May 11th. Note that he’s 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA at home. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is 33-16 (+15.3 units) this year in all “night” games, while Baltimore is just 14-32 (-16.3 units) in in all “night” games. I’m banking on Paxton going farther than Gausman in this one. Lay the price, play on the Mariners. |
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06-26-18 | France -163 v. Denmark | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -163 | 1621 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important game for both teams. Denmark has four points, two behind France, but three ahead of Australia. The Danes will be eager to try and score the upset here. The French have earned six points over their first two games, but there’s room for concern, as they were unable to dominate their much weaker compeition. The teams: Denmark opened its World Cup campaign with a 1-0 win over Peru thanks to Yussuf Poulsen’s marker. The Danes then followed that up with a 1-1 draw to Australia. France had difficulties breaking down both Australia and Peru and not many back home are feeling too confident at the moment. Clearly a much more directed attack against Denmark would go a long way in calming some of the nerves. Note that Olivier Giroud has scored each of France’s last three goals against the Danes, most recently a brace in a 2-1 victory in October 2015. The pick: History isn’t on Denmark’s side, which has lost four of its last five World Cup games vs. fellow European nations. So far the French attack has been lacklustre, but that said, they’ve still managed to get the job done. I think this one sets up well for France to finally break out with a big performance. Lay the price. |
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06-25-18 | Padres v. Rangers -141 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The punchless Padres fell 3-2 in San Francisco last night and I think they’re going to struggle in the opener of this inter-league series as well. Texas took two of three from the Twins over the weekend, but it enters off a 2-0 road loss in the final yesterday afternoon. For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the Rangers. San Diego sends Joey Lucchesi to the hill, while Texas goes with Cole Hamels. The pitchers: Lucchesi is so far 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA. Lucchesi returned from the DL on Wednesday to face the A’s and he’d be rocked for four runs off three hits over 1.2 frames of work. It’s hard to say where the rookie is at right now, but there’s no question that he enters another tough matchup on the road tonight. Hamels is so far 4-6 with a 3.41 ERA. Hamels enters off a gem against the Royals on Tuesday, allowing one earned run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings. Hamels comes in sporting 92 strikeouts over 92.1 frames of work this year and note that he’s 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Neither team has done very well in interleague action this season, however note that the Padres are just 8-14 (-2.6 units) this year as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Texas is 3-1 (+1.4 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I think Hamels is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Play on Texas. |
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06-25-18 | Mariners -128 v. Orioles | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle’s Felix Hernandez has struggled at times this year and looked brilliant in others. The Orioles Andrew Cashner though has for the most part been a disappointment. Seattle has overcome the loss of slugger Robison Cano to become one of the league’s power teams and I think it opens this series with a decisive victory tonight. The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 6-6 with a 5.14 ERA. Hernandez comes in off a strong showing against the Yankees in New York last Wednesday, giving up two runs off six hits while striking out six over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision in the end. Hernandez comes in off back-to-back strong outings, posting a 12:2 K/BB over 12 total innings of work. Cashner is so far 2-8 with a 4.72 ERA. Cashner comes in off a decent showing as well, going four shutout innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday. Cashner was coming off the DL and with a break in the action due to rain, his start was ultimately cut short. Cashner though has been anything but reliable this season as he comes in sporting the poor 0-5, 5.22 ERA record at home. The pick: Seattle is 22-16 (+6.7 units) on the road this year, while Baltimore is just 11-23 (-14.6 units) in all home games. I think “The King” can continue his momentum, while Cashner does indeed seem poised for a classic letdown. Play on Seattle. |
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06-25-18 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies took two of three in Washington over the weekend, but they lost the final 8-6 last night. The Yankees were also involved in a high-scoring, extra-inning slug-fest with Tampa, as they ultimately came out on the short-end of a 7-6 setback. Suffice it to say, I think runs are going to be much harder to come by in the opener of this interleague series. The visitors go with Jonathan Loaisiga, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez. The pitchers: Loasigia is so far 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA. Loasiga’s debut saw him shut down the Rays, but he’d come back down to Earth in his second start by allowing three runs off six hits with four strikeouts over 3.2 innings in a no-decision against the Mariners last week. Loasigia has shown great potential and I think he’ll match his counterpart inning for inning. Velasquez is so far 5-7 with a 4.82 ERA. Velasquez most recently gave up four runs off four hits over 6.1 innings while also striking out eight in a no-decision to St. Louis on Tuesday. Note that Velasquez owns a decent 1.28 WHIP to go along with a 97/29 K:BB over 80.1 innings. The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York has already seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of nine inter-league contests this season. While these teams come in off a couple of high-scoring series, the opener of this one points to the “under” as the correct call. |
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06-25-18 | Angels -161 v. Royals | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -161 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Angels will be eager to get back on track here after the Blue Jays took two of three from them over the weekend. Here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as the toothless Royals fell 11-3 in Houston yesterday afternoon. The visitors go with Tyler Skaggs on the mound this afternoon, while the home side goes with Brad Keller. The pitchers: Skaggs is so far 6-4 with a 2.81 ERA. Skaggs’ last start was skipped over because of hamstring tightness, but he’s good to go tonight. Skaggs has been a pleasant surprise for the Angels this season and note that he’s been “lights out” on the road to this point as well with a 5-1, 2.27 ERA record. Keller is so far 1-2 with a 2.63 ERA. Keller has made the most of his time in the rotation in place of the injured Eric Skoglund, but there’s no question that the rookie faces a stiff test tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is already 35-24 (+8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Kansas City is only 11-14 against southpaws. I think Skaggs overpowers this weak hitting Royals line-up, and I expect Keller to take a step back against the Angels power line-up. Lay the price, play on LA. |
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06-25-18 | Portugal -142 v. Iran | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -142 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Iran’s never made it out of the Group Stage in World Cup action, but if it can somehow pull off an upset against the 2016 Euro Champs, then it will accomplish just that. However Iran was lucky to have won its opening round match against Morocco, which posted a late own goal. Morocco dominated that contest and deserved to win. And then Iran lost 1-0 to Spain. Portugal tied Spain 3-3 in its opener with a hat-trick from Christiano Ronaldo and then followed it up with a 1-0 win over a very tough Morocco. The teams: Iran looked completely impotent against Spain, spending almost the entire 90 minutes in its own end. Iran was once again stingy overall, but its lack of offensive push pretty much renders it useless. Ronaldo followed up his hat-trick against Spain with the only goal in the win over Morocco as well. Can someone else on the Euro Champs step up and contribute here? But England’s Harry Cain has taken over the goal lead after netting a trio in the Lions 6-1 win over Panama, putting pressure on Ronaldo to answer. The pick: Iran is going to have to abandon its “sit back and wait for the other side to make a mistake” approach, as it needs an outright win here for any hope to advance. That’s going to open things up for Portugal to do some serious damage. With a chance to wrap up the group, I look for Portugal to easily pull away for the victory in regulation-plus injury time. |
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06-24-18 | Phillies +109 v. Nationals | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series because of superior pitching. The Phillies will now look to sweep in the nation’s capital as they once again benefit from a mismatch on the mound this evening. The visitors go with Nick Pivetta, while the home side goes with Jefry Rodriguez. The pitchers: Pivetta is so far 4-6 with a 4.08 ERA. Pivetta comes in off another strong outing, giving up two runs off four hits with one walk, while also striking out 13 over 7.1 innings in what turned out to be no-decision against the Cards on Monday. Pivetta hasn’t been perfect this year, but he does seem to be getting progressively better/more confident with each start. To go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP and elite 94:22 K/BB over 79.1 frames of work this season. Rodriguez is so far 0-0 with a 4.66 ERA. Rodriguez is in the rotation out of necessity. Most recently he was walloped for five earned runs over five innings against Baltimore on Tuesday. It was just his second appearance in the big leagues. The pick: Philadelphia has looked great at the plate in this series and there’s no reason not to think that the Phillies can’t carry that offensive momentum over here in this very favorable matchup. I think Pivetta offers great value in this spot, play on Philadelphia. |
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06-24-18 | Colombia v. Poland OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Colombia has won just two of its last ten matches across all competitions. The Colombians though had to play 87 minutes plus stoppage against Japan with just ten men after an early red card in their opening game, a deficit which ultimately proved too much for them to overcome. Poland comes in off a shocking defeat to Senegal and there’s no question that it’ll be looking for a much better, mistake free result this time around. With both teams eager to reverse their fortunes, I’m expecting a higher-scoring shootout. The teams: Colombia is not in good form right now. James Rodriguez will be expected to do a lot more for the Colombian’s in this one. Carlos Sanchez sustained a deliberate handball red card in the third minute of the game and the Japanese took advantage. Radamel Falco has 29 goals in 74 international matches and he’ll also be expected to step up here. Poland will be expecting a lot more from Robert Lewandowski as well. Lewandowski had three goals in his countries warm-up matches, putting him at 55 overall for Poland. The Poles gave up two sloppy goals to Senegal, so there’s no question that they’ll be looking to clean things up here. The pick: These teams both lost their opening games, but each fell by a 2-1 score. There was no lack of scoring in those openers and I’m not expecting anything different here either. Poland has now scored ten goals over its last four matches and I expect it to have plenty of chances this afternoon as well. This one has wide open “shootout” written all over it. Play the “over.” |
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06-24-18 | Diamondbacks +105 v. Pirates | Top | 3-0 | Win | 105 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona continues to impress on the road, as it’s taken the first two games of this series. I think the surging Diamondbacks are going to build off yesterday’s 7-2 victory and find a way to deliver the goods on Sunday. Arizona goes with Clay Buchholz on the mound, while the Pirates go with Trevor Williams. The pitchers: Buchholz is so far 1-1 with a 2.94 ERA. Buchholz most recently allowed one earned run off four hits with two walks and three strikeouts over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. He’d go on to generate a season-best nine ground balls. Buchholz now owns a sharp 1.1 HR/9, while issuing just 1.9 BB/9. Williams is so far 6-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Williams went seven shutout frames against Milwaukee on Monday, allowing one hit and two walks. He also had seven strikeouts. But outings like that have been few and far between for Williams this season, who came into that contest having allowed 17 earned runs over his previous 18 frames of work. The pick: Note as well that when Williams faced the Diamondbacks on June 12th, he’d get shelled for eight runs over only three innings of work. “Momentum” can at times be an almost tangible factor and it’s one in which the books can sometimes have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here in my opinion, as I look for Arizona to continue its surge and get the job done in the end. Play on the Diamondbacks. |
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06-24-18 | Orioles v. Braves -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orioles took yesterday’s interleague contest 7-5, but I think the home side will bounce back on Sunday in what sets up to be a nice mismatch on the mound working in its favor. Baltimore goes with David Hess, while the Braves go with Brandon McCarthy. The pitchers: Hess is so far 2-3 with a 4.82 ERA. Hess most recently was rocked for five runs off five hits with three walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Hess had a decent stretch in May, but he’s since allowed a combined ten runs over his last two outings. Note that he’s 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in all “day” games to this point. McCarthy is so far 5-3 with a 4.89 ERA. McCarthy’s last appearance was back on June 15th, so he comes in plenty rested. McCarthy’s ERA (4.89) and WHIP (1.49), along with his 7.3 K/9 over 14 starts are serviceable. Note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games with a 2-0, 2.82 ERA record as well. The pick: And take it for what you will, but Baltimore is already a terrible 8-20 (-12.1 units) in all “day” games this season, while Atlanta is 17-7 (+13.6 units) in all “day” games. I think Hess has a meltdown this afternoon and I look for the hungry and revenge-minded home side to take advantage. Lay the price, play on the Braves. |
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06-23-18 | Mariners v. Red Sox -160 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston came out on top of a wild 14-10 slugfest in the opener of this three game set last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over on Saturday. The Mariners go with Mike Leake, while the Red Sox go with Eduardo Rodriguez. The pitchers: Leake is so far 7-4 with a 4.47 ERA. Leake comes in off a loss against Boston on Sunday, allowing five earned runs off eight hits over five innings. Leake came into that outing on a roll, but he’d come back down to Earth in a big way against Boston’s big bats. To to along with his uninspiring ERA, note that Leake also owns a pedestrian 55 strikeouts over 92.2 frames of work. Rodriguez is so far 9-1 with a 3.59 ERA. Rodriguez threw opposite Leake last Sunday and would earn the victory after allowing two earned runs with nine strikeouts over six innings. It was his sixth straight winning decision. To go along with his respectable ERA, Rodriguez also owns a sharp 1.24 WHIP and has a 90:24 K/BB over 77.2 frames of work. The pick: Leake has been “hit or miss” this season, but after his latest blow-up, it’s hard to trust where the right-hander is at right now. Rodriguez though has been at this best in this spot all season and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry over his progression here as well. I think Boston is well worth the price of admission in this spot. |
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06-23-18 | Calgary v. Toronto UNDER 51.5 | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is the second highest total on the board in Week 2. In the 2017 Grey Cup, Calgary was a seven-point favorite, but it would get upset for a second straight year in the “big game” 27-24. A Matt Black interception of Bo Levi Mitchell in the end zone with eight seconds remaining was a dramatic finish to a great upset. The teams: Calgary looked sharp on both ends of the field in its 28-14 win over visiting Hamilton in Week 1. The Stamps though would only pull away in the fourth quarter with a 19-3 run. Mitchell struggled, going just 17 of 36 for 297 yards, a touchdown and an interception. RB Don Jackson was a bright spot with 87 yards on 12 carries. Toronto was a three-point fav in Saskatchewan in Week 1, but the defending champs fell flat in the 27-19 setback. The Argos looked bad offensively, posting just five points through the first three quarters. QB Ricky Ray had just 233 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. RB James Wilder Jr. was also a major disappointment with 17 total rushing yards. The Argos’ bright spot was their play on the defensive side in the Week 1 loss. The pick: These teams have a long history of playing to lower-scoring defensive battles as well, as five of their last six in the series have gone “under” the posted number. Everything points to another tight/lower-scoring war in this one as well. Play the “under.” |
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06-23-18 | Phillies -115 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia smashed Washington 12-2 last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola, while the Nationals go with Erick Fedde. The pitchers: Nola is so far 8-2 with a 2.55 ERA. Nola comes in off easily his worst outing of the year, allowing four runs and four walks off seven hits over 4.1 innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Starts like that have been few and far between for Nola though over the last two years, so there’s no reason to over-react to one sub-par performance. Note that he still sports a 94:26 K/BB over 95.1 innings. Fedde is so far 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA. Fedde most recently allowed three runs off seven hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a setback to the Yankees on Monday. Fedde has looked unimpressive in his limited time and he comes in with a poor 7.20 ERA on the road so far. The pick: The Philadelphia bats came alive in last night’s victory and there’s no reason not to think that it won’t be able to duplicate that feat in this one as well facing the shaky Fedde. It’s a golden opportunity for Nola to bounce back and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to do just that. Play on the Phillies. |
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06-23-18 | Sweden v. Germany -208 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 46 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Germany came out and laid an egg in its 1-0 loss to Mexico to open the 2018 World Cup. The Germans were favored to win the tournament only slightly behind power house Brazil. Germany will now put the foot on the gas for the rest of the tournament and it will look to take out its frustrations on Sweden. The Swede’s will be hopeful for an upset of their own, and while they do present a formidable defensive challenge, I still don’t think it’ll be enough against this now angry/frantic German side. The teams: It’s do or die for the defending World Champs. Sweden sits atop Group F right now after taking care of business against South Korea, while Germany sits tied for last after falling flat against the Mexicans. Germany was without the services of Jonas Hector in the opening game because of illness, but the dynamic left-back is expected back in this one. Much more will be expected of Timo Werner though, who haas eight goals in 15 international appearances for the team. Victor Lindelof missed the game against South Korea due to illness, but he’s likely to return here. One other player for the Swedes to keep your eye on for is Marcus Berg, how had eight goals in qualifying. Note that Sweden would need a VAR-awarded penalty to beat the South Koreans though. The pick: Note as well that Germany did have 17 shots on goal in its loss to Mexico, including nine of which were on target. It also held 67 percent of the possession. The Germans ran into some bad luck and a hot goaltender in Guillermo Ochoa. Germany though has won seven straight against Sweden and with its back against the wall here, I look for it to find a way to bounce back with a resounding victory after its opening game shocker. Lay the price. |
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06-23-18 | South Korea v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -182 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Mexico looked impressive defensively in its colossal 1-0 win over Germany, while South Korea looked pretty feeble in its 1-0 loss to Sweden. The Mexicans can take the lead for good in this group with another win though and while that may in fact occur, I do definitely feel that this matchup/game has the feel of a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring, wide-open “shootout.” The teams: The Mexicans scored early against the Germans in their opening game upset, and then turned their attention to a more defensive style, a tactic which worked brilliantly. Mexico is expected to put out the exact same line-up here, so it’s hard to imagine the offensively challenged Koreans putting up much of a fight in this one. South Korea was held without a single shot on goal by Sweden. The Korean’s were looking for the Swede’s to make the first mistake, but they simply didn’t make any. South Korean star Heung-min Son looked very average. The Korean’s though did look stout defensively, as Sweden would score its lone goal via a VAR awarded penalty. The pick: The Koreans won’t be going down without a fight and I think they’ll make Mexico work throughout this one. When you add it all up, there’s no question in my mind that this one has “defensive battle” written all over it. Play the “under.” |
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06-23-18 | Tunisia v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Belgium will look to pad its score here as it comes in on a huge run, unbeaten since a 2-0 defeat to Spain back in September 2016. Since then it’s gone 20 straight without suffering a defeat. Belgium managed to make it past Panama in its opener, while Tunisia suffered a late 2-1 loss to England. The teams: Belgium currently sits atop Group G after its 3-0 win over Panama. Romelu Lukaku scored twice in the convincing victory and he now has eight over his last six games. Kevin de Bruyne would assist on both of Lukaku’s goals. Wahbi Kharzi will be expected to do a lot more for Tunisia today. Kharzi, a striker at Rennes, has the quality to make an impact in this one though. Ferjani Sassi would net the lone goal in the crushing loss to England. The pick: It’s all or nothing for Tunisia obviously, as it comes in without a victory over its last four matches. Lukaku though plays very similar to England’s Harry Kane, who had two goals in the win over Tunisia. This one has the feel of a wide open “track meet,” rather than a slower-paced “chess match.” Play the over. |
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06-22-18 | Royals v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: A few years ago, Danny Duffy and Dallas Keuchel were the two hottest hurlers on the planet. Oh how the times have changed. That said, each has the track record and pedigree to turn things around in 2018 and I think we’re in store for a bit of a “duel” on Friday night. The pitchers: Duffy is so far 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA. Duffy will be eager to reverse his fortunes here after getting shelled for seven runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings while striking out five against the Astros on Saturday. Across 15 starts Duffy owns a 1.55 WHIP and a 69:40 K/BB. Also note that he’s 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA in all “night” games. Keuchel is so far 4-8 with a 4.15 ERA. Keuchel comes in off a strong outing against the Royals on Saturday, giving up two unearned runs off six hits with one walk over six innings while striking out five and winning his first game since mid May. To go along with his sub-par 4.15 ERA, Keuchel also sports a 71:23 K/BB. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but KC has seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 33 on the road this year, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in eight of ten as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. I look for these two determined starters to battle deep. Play the “under.” |
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06-22-18 | Rangers v. Twins -121 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota will be eager to bounce back here after its listless 9-2 loss at home to Boston last night. Texas will hand the ball to Mike Minor, while the Twins go with Fernando Romero (3-2, 4.17 ERA.) The pitchers: Minor is so far 4-4 with a 5.35 ERA. Minor most recently allowed two runs off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Saturday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Minor this season, as he has only four quality outings so far in 2018. Also note that he’s a terrible 1-2 with an 8.14 ERA on the road. Romero is so far 3-2 with a 4.17 ERA. Romero most recently allowed three runs off six hits with a walk over four innings in a no-decision against the Indians on Saturday. Note though that the rookie has been at his best at home this year, going 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA to this point. The pick: I think Minor’s inconsistencies on the road continue here, while recent form displayed by Romero suggests that he’s in line for another productive evening in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Twins. |
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06-22-18 | Sparks -3.5 v. Wings | Top | 72-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Sparks are on the road at College Park Center to take on the Dallas Wings in this one. LA is 9-2 so far, good enough for second place in the Western Conference. Dallas is so far 5-5, sitting in fifth in the Western Conference. The teams: LA averages 79.9 PPG and it allows 73.7. Note that the Sparks come in with zero injuries. LA is led by Chelsea Gray with 15.5 PPG, while Nneka Ogwumike averages 16.5 points per night. Dallas averages 82.9 points and it allows 81.0. Note that the Wings have two major injuries as Karima Christmas-Kelly is out for the season with a knee injury, while Theresa Plaisance is out with an ACL tear. Elizabeth Cambage is averaging 19.7 points for Dallas this year. The pick: Dallas has trouble protecting the ball against aggressive defensive teams, turning it over an average of 15.6 times per 100 possessions. And that doesn’t bode well facing the Sparks stingy unit. I think this line should be larger. Play on LA. |
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06-22-18 | Dodgers -145 v. Mets | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers had the night off last night, while the Mets are off a 6-4 loss in Colorado. I think the well rested visiting side could be a bigger favorite as I look for Alex Wood to out duel New York starter Zach Wheeler on the mound this evening. The pitchers: Wood is so far 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA. Wood comes in off a decent outing against San Francisco on Saturday, giving up one earned run off four hits and two walks while striking out two over 5.2 innings. Wood would throw 58 of is 85 pitches for strikes and I think the southpaw will carry that momentum over here. Note that he owns a 3.72 ERA in all “night” games. Wheeler is so far 2-5 with a 4.82 ERA. Wheeler most recently allowed two earned runs off three hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Previous to that though Wheeler had been shelled for six earned runs. The pick: Note as well that the home field advantage has been anything but for Wheeler this season, as he comes in with a poor 0-4, 5.14 ERA record in New York. He’s also just 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA in all “night” games. LA is 17-15 on the road, while the Mets are a terrible 13-21 (-12.5 units) at home. I think Wood offers great value in this matchup. Play on LA. |
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06-22-18 | Winnipeg -3 v. Montreal | Top | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off Week 1 losses. Winnipeg lost a 33-30 heartbreaker at home to the Edmonton Eskimos, while Montreal had a predictable letdown in BC. The Bombers lost their starting QB in the final preseason tune-up, but their backup played well and I think he’ll carry that progression over here. The teams: Winnipeg was forced to start Chris Streveler in Week 1 due to the injury to Matt Nichols. Streveler though posted a respectable first performance with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler combined for 120 receiving yards and two touchdowns. RB Andrew Harris had 77 yards on 14 carries, part of 137 total yards on the ground for Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers looked poor on the defensive side, but clearly the team catches a break facing the impotent Al’s offense. Montreal QB Drew Willy had 281 yards, one TD and one INT against the Lions last week. Note though that Willy has one or less touchdown passes in each of his last eight games. Montreal’s ground game stalled as well with just 78 total yards. RB Tyrell Sutton was a bright spot with 65 rushing yards on 15 carries. The Al’s looked decent defensively, allowing 300 yards and 22 points, led by Chris Ackie with six tackles. The prediction: Take it for what you will though, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Montreal is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 at home. Not only that but the Blue Bombers are 6-1 in their last seven played in Montreal. The Al’s offense is still a major question mark and I have a hard time seeing the unit keeping up with Streveler and company. Lay the points. |
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06-22-18 | Nigeria v. Iceland OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Nigeria is coming off a disappointing 2-0 loss to Croatia. However, after the Croat’s dominated Argentina 3-0 yesterday, perhaps that opening setback doesn’t look so bad. The Super Eagles will be eager to get untracked here as they look to open up their offensive attack and gain some momentum. Iceland will be looking to take advantage and to grab a full three points here after it went to a historic 1-1 draw with Argentina. And with Argentina now eliminated, Iceland can clinch at least second spot with an outright victory. The teams: Nigeria has now lost four of its last five matches. Expect to see some changes on the field from Nigeria today, as Leicester City striker Kelechi Iheanacho will himself be expected to make an immediate offensive impact. It’s interesting to note that Nigeria actually created more chances that Croatia in its opening game loss, but it managed to only find the target twice. Iceland will be attacking today. Keep your eyes on Gylfi Sigurdsson, who has scored more goals than anyone currently on the squad. Alfred Finnbogaso scored the lone goal against Argentina. The pick: As great as Iceland’s draw was with Argentina, it simply won’t mean as much if it can’t back it up with a three-point win here. Iceland has in fact not won in five matches, as it’s draw with Argentina was it’s second straight. With both teams desperate for a victory and each looking to push the pace from start to finish, the correct call is the “over” in my opinion. |
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06-21-18 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which can struggle to put runs on the board at times square off against a couple of capable starters. In my opinion, this one sets up as a classic “duel.” The Padres go with Tyson Ross, while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner. The pitchers: Ross is so far 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA. Ross comes in off a difficult loss to the Braves on Thursday, giving up three runs off three hits while striking out four over six frames. Ross’s velocity was up on his fast-ball to over 91 MPH and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 3-2, 3.11 ERA night record. Bumgarner is so far 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed three runs off five hits with four walks while striking out three over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Bumgarner continues to try and work himself back into game shape, but he certainly has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around quickly. The pick: The Padres have struggled on the road this year with a 16-19 record. They’ve also struggled to plate runs away from friendly confines, having seen the total go 11-23 on the road. Bumgarner faces the perfect opponent to get back on track, while I also expect Ross to continue his steady progression. Add it all up and this one has “under” written all over it. |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 50 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Roughriders will hope to open the season with a 2-0 record after beating the Toronto Argonauts handily in Week 1. Ottawa will have different plans obviously as it kicks off its 2018 campaign The teams: Saskatchewan has won four straight on the road dating to last year. QB Zach Collaros had 203 yards and a TD last week, to go along with zero INT’s. Duron Carter and Caleb Holley combined for 83 receiving yards. Jerome Messam though leads a strong running attack which posted 111 yards last week. The Redblacks were 8-9-1 last year, but they’ll be looking to improve those numbers with QB Trevor Harris, who helped his team finish third in the league in total points scored last season. The pick: It’s a quick turnaround for the Roughriders, who have to travel across the country for this one. Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 19 non-conference games. This one has the feel of a wide open “shootout,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the “over.” |
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06-21-18 | Cubs -149 v. Reds | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -149 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs closed out a home set with the Dodgers with a 4-0 win yesterday and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here facing erratic Reds’ starter Matt Harvey. Chicago hands the ball to Kyle Hendricks in this one. The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 5-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Hendricks most recently allowed three earned runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out three over six innings in a victory over St. Louis on Saturday. Hendricks enters with a respectable 4-3, 3.79 ERA in all night games this year. Harvey is so far 1-5 with a 5.92 ERA. Harvey most recently gave up three runs off four hits and two walks over five innings while striking out two in a loss to the Pirates on Friday. Harvey was decent, but he’d ultimately come up short again. Harvey now sports the ballooned ERA and note that he owns a 5.63 ERA in all home games. The pick: Chicago is 41-29 overall this year, which includes going 21-15 on the road. Cincinnati is 27-45 this season, including just 12-23 at home. The Cubs are also 115-69 against the division the last three seasons, while the Reds are just 78-105 against divisional foes in the same span. No upset in this one, lay the price. |
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06-21-18 | Croatia v. Argentina +110 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Lionel Messi missed a penalty shot in Argentina’s opening game against Iceland and the South American power house would have to settle for a draw. Croatia though rolled to a 2-0 win over Nigeria, which now clearly puts the pressure on Argentina to find a way to win this one outright, as a draw or a loss here would put it in jeopardy of advancing. The Croat’s looked strong against their African opponent, but I think they’ll come up short here. The teams: Argentina was a runner up in Brazil four years ago and it’s going to be looking to get back on track after its opening lacklustre effort. Messi may have missed the free kick, but overall he had a strong outing with 12 shots on net. Sergio Aguero managed the lone goal. Luka Modic scored for Croatia in its opening win against Nigeria. The Croats have now won three of their last five, but note that they’ve lost their last two against South American opposition, with 2-0 losses to both Brazil and Peru in friendlies. The pick: Messi will be a man on a mission here after taking the full blame for his team’s “draw.” However, you’ll also want to keep your eyes Aguero, who has four goals in his last four games. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. |
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06-21-18 | Peru v. France -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: France comes into its second Group C matchup sitting at the top after it’s 2-1 win over Australia, while Peru can be put out of its misery after it fell 1-0 to Denmark. The teams: The French are expected to field the identical squad after its Game 1 win. Antoine Griezmann scored from the penalty spot against the Aussies and he now has 21 international goals in 55 games. Note that France has now gone unbeaten in its last five matches, winning four of those. Peru is led by Paolo Guerrero, who has scored a national-record 34 goals over 89 appearances. Christian Cueva blasted a penalty well over the bar in his team’s closest chance last time out though, and the disastrous effort would go on to set the tone for the rest of the game. The pick: Peru is tough on the back line, but France has scored 19 goals in its last nine matches. Also note that the French have not lost to a South American team since 1978. Peru was in great form heading into the tournament, but I think it’s Game 1 setback will weigh heavily on its mind again here. Ultimately I look for France’s high-powered attack to prove to be too much for the Peruvian’s to handle. Lay the price. |
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