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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-20 | Lakers v. Spurs +6 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: So here's an interesting matchup between two teams which have gotten out to decent early starts. The Spurs are 2-1, and they've gone 3-0 against the spread. The Lakers had the game vs. Portland on Monday, but now the defending champs hit the road to play two games at San Antonio, including another one on New Year's Day. The NBA will do that a lot this year of course, having teams play back-to-back in the same arena, as to cut down the travel time and potential exposure to COVID 19. We've only played a few games into the season, so it's a little difficult to get firm reads on every team at this point. Obviously we know the Lakers are good and they're going to be contending for another Championship at the end, more than likely anyways. The pick: The Spurs though weren't given much of a chance by the bookmakers befor the season started, but as I've pointed out, they've gotten out to the decent start to the season, going 2-1 straight up and perfect against the spread. The Lakers are going to have a big red target on their back now every night, even more than they did before they actually won the Championship, so they're going to get each team's best effort almost every given night. And I do think the Spurs come to play here. Note as well that San Antonio is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine after two or more whole nights of rest in between games. I think the home side will at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the handful of points it's been afforded. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the San Antonio Spurs. |
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12-30-20 | Murray State +4 v. Belmont | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Murray State is 4-3 and 1-1 in the OVC, while Belmont is 8-1 and 2-0. These two teams dominate this conference. These teams have both won the conference championship over the last two years. The Racers have lost all three true road games they've played, and with six of their first seven OVC contests away from friendly confines, today's road game definitely takes on added importance for Murray State. The pick: Belmont comes in off a 72-63 win over Evansville, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU victories in a row. These teams are evenly matched for sure, but I like the "hungrier" dog in this fight. A great situational play on Murray State. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Murray State. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -8.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Badgers snapped a three-game slide with a 20-17 win over Minnesota in their finale and I think they're going to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Demon Deacons enter having lost back-to-back games, including a humbling 45-21 loss to Louisville as one point favorites last time out. Wake has a good offense, which averaged 37 PPG, but it was atrocious defensively, allowing 31.6. Sam Hartman was a bright spot for the Wake, finishing with 1,906 passing yards, ten TD's and just one INT. The pick: Wisconsin only averaged 22.3 PPG, but it made up for it on the other end by playing "lights out" defense, conceding just 15.7 PPG this year. Graham Mertz finished with eight TD's and five interceptions this season, but note that the Badgers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after allowing 18 points or less in a SU victory in their last outing. I think Wisconsin effectively slows down Wake and I look for Mertz to take advantage of this extremely bad Wake secondary. Lay the points! This is a 10* play on Wisconsin. |
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12-29-20 | Knicks +3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: New York is 1-2. The Knicks come to town confident after their 130-110 blowout destruction of the Bucks on the 27th. Cleveland is inexplicably 3-0 to start the year. Most recently the Cavaliers destroyed Philadelphia 118-94. Cleveland has plenty of young and hungry talent, but I think its early record is more a case of team's not taking the Cavs too seriously right now and looking past their opponent. And that's not going to happen with the Knicks. New York doesn't face too many teams in the season that's on the "same level" as it, so this is a golden opportunity to try and string a couple wins in a row. The pick: The Cavs have a night off after this, before then embarking on a six-game road trip starting on New Year's Eve in Indianapolis. You can throw the ATS stats out the window in this one. As primarily a situational handicapper, I do indeed feel this one sets up extremely well for the hungry underdog visiting side. Clearly the outright win is a possibility, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Knicks. |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma State was 7-3 in Big 12 play. The Cowboys alternated wins and losses over the final month. Miami was 8-2 overall. The Hurricanes were on a five-game win streak before a 62-26 loss to UNC in their last game. The Cowboys have a strong run game, but Miami's rush defense is decent. Overall Oklahoma State averages 29.5 PPG, while allowing 21.9. QB Spencer Sanders though heads into this game without the services of top RB Chuba Hubbard. The pick: Miami averaged 34 PPG. QB D'Eriq King had 2,573 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Hurricanes allowed 26.0 PPG and I'd argue that their schedule was much more difficult than they Cowboys. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. While I respect the OK State rushing game, I think Miami's big line will contain that aspect and turn the Cowboys one-dimensional. I like King to post a big game here as well. I'm on the Hurricanes. This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Miami. |
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12-28-20 | Rockets v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Rockets will fall to 0-2 here after losing 128-126 to the Blazers in OT to open the season. The Nuggets come in ready to now turn the page after starting 0-2, losing in OT to the Kings, before then falling to the Clippers at home in their last one. With a series of difficult road contests upcoming, I look for the Nuggets to come out extremely focussed here. The Rockets are still dealing with several issues on and off the court (COVID mostly), and I expect them to struggle in this difficult road venue and versus this now very hungry home side. The pick: Note that Denver has performed very well in this spot for bettors as well, going 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points, while Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on one days rest. Houston doesn't have a big man to handle the Nuggets' size and that's going to be a big difference-maker today as well. Lay the points. This is a 10* ATS 'BLOOD-BATH' on the Denver Nuggets. |
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12-28-20 | Bills -6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 179 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Patriots are eliminated. Cam Newton is going to be the only motivated player on the field for New England today. The Patriots have nothing to play for over the last two games, and they can't even really play spoiler here, as Buffalo has already clinched. Instead, I give the Bills the huge edge in being the more "motivated" team in this matchup. Buffalo won the first matchup and after being the "red headed step-child" of the division for so long, and after suffering so many beatdowns at the hands of the Pats over the years, I look for this visiting organization to lay down a can of whoop ass that none of us have witnessed in quite a while. Buffalo is simply the better team in every respect and I don't see it having any sort of letdown in enemy territory today. The pick: It's interesting to note as well that New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games played in the month of December, while Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. With a chance to humiliate the Patriots on their home field, I look for the Bills to do just that! This is a 10* AFC EAST BEST OF THE BEST on the Buffalo Bills. |
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12-28-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +3.5 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of a back-to-back between the teams. Last night Drake won its ninth straight (both SU and ATS) vs. the Sycamores by a score of 81-63. The Bulldogs are the better team on paper here, averaging 86.4 PPG and allowing 60. Indiana State only trailed by one at half-time, but a slow start to the second-half doomed the Sycamores after that. I actually had a play on Indiana State yesterday afternoon, and while that big play failed to deliver, I'm back on the Sycamores here in this bounce-back position. The pick: Previous to the loss to the Bulldogs, Indiana State had won two in a row. It averages 69.4 PPG and it allows 69.2. All good things do come to an end though and with a few days off before a January 3rd home and home set vs. the lowly Southern Illinois Salukis, I think the stage is now set for Drake to finally have a mental lapse here. The Sycamores are definitely the more motivated side here and I think they can keep this one competitive not only for just the first half this time, but for the entire game. Grab the points, expect a "nail-biter!" This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State. |
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12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 50 | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 151 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The first game between these teams went well "under" the number in the Eagles' 23-9 home victory. Ben DiNiucci was under center for Dallas in that one, but Andy Dalton will be directing the Cowboys tonight. Philly has gotten a spark from rookie QB Jalen Hurts, and while many may think this'll be a classic "shootout," I expect this instead to be a very tight, lower-scoring battle. Philly's defense is definitely superior, but Dallas has come a long way in that department over the last three weeks. I expect each offense to be committed to the run throughout as well. If this was Week 10, I'd expect more of a shootout, but in this crucial end of season contest, this one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than "offensive fireworks." The pick: From a trend-based standpoint it sets up well for a lower-scoring contest, as note that Philly has seen the total go "under" in four of its last six on the road. Also note that six of these team's last eight in the series have fallen below the posted number as well. For all the reasons listed above, look for this one to fall "under" the posted number once it's all said and done. This is a 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Eagles/Cowboys. |
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12-27-20 | Mavs +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 124-73 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: One of the biggest mistakes that novice gamblers can make is "overreacting" to Week 1 results, or after the first few games of the regular season. Are the Mavericks as bad as their 0-2 record would indicate in the early going? Obviously not. Does the Clippers 2-0 record mean that they're now the team to beat in the West? Probably, but again, let's not overreact after a couple of games. LA had two "revenge" games on its plate right out of the gate this year, beating the Lakers on Opening Night, and then beating the Nuggets in Denver on Thursday, avenging the playoff series loss. However, with those two very emotional contests out of the way and now back to play their first official "home" game, I think the Clippers come out flat here. The pick: And that's going to be bad news vs. Luca Doncic and the winless Mavericks in my opinion. Both teams are loaded with talent, but I think this one sets up fantastically from a situational stand point for Dallas and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs do indeed point to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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12-27-20 | Giants +10.5 v. Ravens | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 32 m | Show | |
The set-up: Baltimore has a "cream puff" final regular season game at Cincinnati and I think it gets caught looking ahead to that contest and takes the foot off the gas in the second half of this game. The Giants on the other hand come in absolutely desperate, needing a win or they'll be eliminated from contention. Last week they lost by 14 points to the Browns. QB Daniel Jones is expected to return. The pick: Baltimore crushed Jacksonville 40-14 last weekend. The Ravens are 9-4 and are back on track, but consistency has plagued LaMar Jackson and company all season long. If the Ravens have a lead in the second half, there's no need for them to run up this score, instead they'll be trying to avoid mistakes and injuries and kill the clock. New York will be aiming for the end zone on every drive and because of that, I expect this game to be much closer than what this spread would suggest. This is a 9* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the New York Giants. |
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12-27-20 | Falcons v. Chiefs UNDER 53.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 147 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: Will Kansas City win this game? Of course. Can Atlanta make it interesting? I don't think it'll even bother here. The big question though is, will the Chiefs run up this score in the second half if they come out of the break with a lead? With a home game against already eliminated LA Chargers to end the season, there's no reason at all for the Chiefs to run up this score. KC's entire game plan will be to go up early, and then to control the clock, avoid injuries and get ready to finish off this strange season. Julio Jones is done for the year for ATL, and I just can't see at all where any sort of motivation will be coming from this "dome" team today. Situationally, this one sets up great as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that the "under" has hit in four of ATL's last five on the road as well. KC's defense is underrated and I think it'll grab the main headline in tomorrow's KC summaries. This number is a tad high. This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Falcons/Chiefs. |
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12-27-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +4 | Top | 81-63 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Drake is 9-0 and 7-0 ATS. They say all good things have to come to an end, and I think that time is now for Drake. Overall it averages 86.4 PPG, while allowing 60.0. On paper, obviously Drake is the better team. Indiana State is 3-2, averaging 69.2 PPG and conceding 69.4. As I said, on paper, clearly Drake is the better team. The pick: Indiana State though won't be rolling over here. Note that it's 3-0 SU at home. Drake's early competition needs to be called into question here as well, as it enters off an 88-55 win over lowly North Dakota. Note that this is a back-to-back set as well, with each team playing here again tomorrow. I'll point out though that the Sycamores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +5.5 points range. In a contest which I see coming right down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points in what I feel to be a prime situational spot wagering position for the home side. This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State. |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 131 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm primarily a situational handicapper and I think this one sets up well for the home side to pull off the minor upset at home this weekend. The Raiders are in "do or die" mode, as a loss here will eliminate them from contention. Miami also needs victories to keep its playoff hopes alive, but I think that's asking a lot of this young team on the road today, especially with a rookie QB. Derek Carr and the Raiders have a capable offense and I expect to see Gruden have his team prepared today. The pick: I'll point out as well that Las Vegas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I like the desperate home side to dig deep and deliver on Saturday night. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders. |
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12-26-20 | Pacers v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 125-106 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana went 3-0 in the preseason and it won its season opener, albeit over the Knicks. Now it hits the road and I think it'll finally have a letdown here. Chicago won its final three preseason games, but unlike its opponent today, it got destroyed in its opening game and because of that, I like the Bulls to play with much more heart today. The pick: This is a classic "look-ahead" spot for the Pacers as well, as they have a back-to-back set at home against the Celtics starting tomorrow night. And to say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement, as Chicago lost all four games in this series last year. I think the outright is possible, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. This is a 10* SUPER-SHOCKER on the Chicago Bulls. |
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12-26-20 | Green Bay +17.5 v. Wright State | Top | 53-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phoenix are winless on the year and they come in hungry after a 74-62 loss to Milwaukee in their last game. The Raiders on the other hand look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after beating Detroit 85-72 last time out. Losing isn't fun, and after starting the season 0-6, I don't think we have to question the visiting sides motivation levels this evening. Overall Wisconsin has averaged 66.2 PPG and conceded 83. The pick: THe Raiders have won four straight, as they average 79.6 PPG and allow 67.2. Clearly Wright State is the better team, but I think that it gets caught complacent and I believe it'll take the foot off the gas in the second half as it looks ahead to its game against this very same team tomorrow night. Finally note that the Phoenix are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference road games as an underdog in the +15.5 to +17.5 points range. A few too many points to be giving up to this hungry visiting side that's desperate to break into the win column. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin Green Bay. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State UNDER 56.5 | Top | 21-39 | Loss | -112 | 148 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: WKU has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS and the total has gone "under" in four of its last five overall. Note that ten of WKU's 11 games this year have had a total of 56 or fewer points scored. On the flip-side though, WKU has played pretty good defensively down the stretch, as it's conceded only 14.3 PPG over its last four. The pick: Georgia State has given up an average of only 18.3 PPG over its last three games, so these are two teams which come in firing on all cylinders on the defensive side of the ball. With so much time off in between games, I believe these offenses suffer and I look for these defensive units to become the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad high. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER WKU/Georgia State. |
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12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions UNDER 54 | Top | 47-7 | Push | 0 | 124 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bucs are still in contention for a playoff spot, but they haven't clinched yet. Tampa is dealing with injury issues right now, but with a Bears loss this weekend, the Bucs will clinch. The only motivation that Detroit has today is try and play spoiler for Tampa here, as it was eliminated officially from contention last weekend. And frankly, the thought of disturbing the Bucs playoff chances isn't going to be any sort of motivating factor whatsoever for this Lions team, who I think will quickly throw in the white towel after the first quarter. The pick: The Bucs are one of the better defensive clubs, allowing just 22.9 PPG, No. 1 against the run by allowing just 77.8 PPG. The Lions are a throw-first team anyways, but it makes their already one-dimensional offense, even more so. I think Tampa goes up early, but then runs this clock out as it tries to avoid any more injuries. This number is a tad high. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bucs/Lions. |
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12-25-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +1 | Top | 121-108 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This isn't the same Clippers team which blew a 3-1 series lead in the bubble last season to the Nuggets, as a few new faces are on the team, while others have moved on. Denver has also gone through some transition, but for the most part returns its main core of players, while also picking up a few nice pieces in the offseason. Should we overreact to the first game of the season? The Clippers beat the Lakers on Opening Night, while the Nuggets lost in OT at home to the Kings. Anything can happen on Opening Night, I think that Denver likely got caught looking past its lowly opponent to this more high-profile contest. The Clippers return home to play three-straight after this as well vs. the Mavericks, Wolves and Blazers, so this now sets up as a small look-ahead spot for LA. The pick: Denver has two whole nights off after this before a home game vs. Houston. Of course LA would love to revenge that series loss, but the second game of the regular season isn't the best place to prove a point. The Clippers were more excited and focused to beat the Lakers in my opinion, and couldn't care less about that series loss to Denver. This one means a lot more to the Nuggets than it does the Clippers, as they'll be desperate to avoid the 0-2 start at home. I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright. This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Denver Nuggets. |
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12-25-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +6 | Top | 95-102 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawkeyes are 7-1, including a 70-55 win over Purdue last time out. The GOlden Gophers are 7-1 overall (0-1 in conference play though) and most recently coming off a 90-82 win over Saint Louis. The Hawkeyes are led by Luka Garza, who averages 28.4 points and 9.1 boards per game. Both teams allow roughly the same amount of points (Iowa concedes 70.6, while Minnesota allows 73.5), so let's call that deparment a "wash."Â The pick: Marcus Carr leads the charge for the Golden Gophers, he had 32 points in the win over the Billikens. Garza's an amazing player, but note that Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as an underdog in the +5.5 to +8.5 points range. I like Carr and company to battle tough here as they look to pull off the upset at home on X-Mas Day, while avoiding the 0-2 conference hole to open the season. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Minnesota. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Vikes need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive after a 33-27 loss to the Bears last Sunday. Clearly the last thing that the Vikings want to do is try to turn this into a track meet with the Saints, instead they'll be leaning heavily on RB Dalvin Cook from start to finish. The Vikes have lost two in a row and they're basically eliminated already, as they'll have to win their last two games and get plenty of outside help. One game at a time though. Kirk Cousins was decent this year with 29 TD's and 13 INT's, but it was Cook who led the league in rushing. The pick: Minnesota is poor defensively and the the Saints are one of the best on the offensive side of the ball, but I look for the Saints to also lean heavily on their run game today as they try to break a three-game slide. Brees returned from COVID in last week's 32-29 loss to the Chiefs and while New Orleans was the first team to clinch a playoff spot, it still has a chance to lock up the NFC South. I think Alvin Kamara will play a big part in the home side's offense today. The big difference this year though for New Orleans has been its defensive play, as outside of the Chiefs loss, the Saints had been fantastic over the previous five games (21.2 PPG conceded on average.) Look for both teams to run the ball first and then expect this total to indeed stay under once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL GRINCH-BUSTER on the UNDER Vikes/Saints. |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 61.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: This game is being played in Frisco Texas due to COVID restrictions. Both teams are defensively challenged and I expect a shootout from start to finish. The Warriors finished 4-4, while Houston was 3-4. The Cougars have plenty of offensive talent which I expect to run up this score. Hawaii won't have the luxury to sit back and wait for Houston to make a mistake. The Warriors average 26 points per game, but their passing attack is ranked a respectable 49th with 243.4 yards per game. Hawaii is going to have to put the foot on the gas throughout as well, as note that it's defense was terrible, allowing 29.3 PPG. The pick: Houston's defense is porous as well. The Cougars have allowed 19 touchdowns to opponents this year in just 29 red zone trips. Note as well that defensive star Payton Turner (who finished with 17 tackles and five sacks this year), has opted out of playing in this game. Clayton Tune likes to throw the ball, he averages 261.7 passing yards per game. The lowest point total that Houston gave up this season was 21. Suffice it to say, I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later! This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Hawaii/Houston. |
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12-23-20 | Jazz +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams were bounced in the first round of the playoffs last year. Utah has a great core around Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. THe Jazz gave up an average of 108.9 PPG last year, which was one of the best. The Jazz have gotten stronger in the offseason and note that they were No. 1 in the league in 3-point shooting percentage, hitting 38.5 percent from range. The pick: Portland is healthy and ready to go as well. The Blazers are an offense first team, as they're defense was among the worst in the league last year (allowed 116.2 PPG). Utah's defense is fresh and I think it'll slow down Portland's shooters and at the same time, I look for the visiting side to dictate the flow as well. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Utah Jazz. |
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12-23-20 | Providence v. Butler +1 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Butler. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 51.5 | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 77 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisiana Tech receives the bowl bid despite the 4-4 record. LA Tech has struggled thoughout the season on the offensive side of the ball, averaging just 325.1 YPG on the ground. LA Tech was poor defensively as well, conceding 34.3 PPG. The pick: Georgia Southern doesn't score a lot either, averaging just 26.3 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing just 22.3. Note as well that the Georgia Southern offense will be without both No. 1 and No. 2 QB's, as Shai Werts and backup Justin Tomlin are out for this one. LA Tech struggles at the best of times to move the ball and now they face one of the best defenses they've seen all year. Expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring New Orleans Bowl once it's all said and done. This is a 10* play on the UNDER Georgia Southern/Louisiana Tech. |
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12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets UNDER 230.5 | Top | 99-125 | Win | 102 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The season ended just a couple of months ago, and now the 2020/21 campaign gets underway. Strange times for sure. Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and the Nets get ready to welcome Stephen Curry and the Warriors to Brooklyn. The Nets lost in five games to the Raptors in the Bubble, while the Warriors went just 15-50 last year. Golden State still has Curry on the team and it's loaded with talent, but this is not the same Warriors team which shot the lights out every single night and ran up the score. There's going to be a transition period here for Golden State once again this season, especially when Curry is on the bench. The Nets have plenty of talent as well, but chemistry in the early going will be an issue as well in my opinion. Especially for Brooklyn's bench players and under in a new system in Steve Nash. The pick: I'll point out as well that Golden State has seen the total dip under the number in eight of its last 11 non-conference road games when the total in the contest is set at 230 points or higher. This number is a little high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Warriors/Nets. |
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12-22-20 | Nebraska +18.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 53-67 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm looking at this game, looking at each teams' records, looking at what they did in their most recent matchup against each other, looking at what they did in their last games and leading up to this moment. I'm looking at each team's schedule to see who they play next. Wisconsin is great obviously, it's 6-1 overall and 6-0 at home. Nebraska is 4-3 overall and just 2-4 against the spread on the road, but I think there are some great situational and motivational factors working in favor of the Huskers here, and while I'm not going to call for an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. First off, Nebraska does play with revenge here after it lost 81-64 to Wisconsin in their last matchup back on February 15th, just before the Pandemic hit. This sets up as a look-ahead spot for Wisconsin as well, with a big nationally televised Christmas Day matchup at Michigan State. Nebraska lost to Creighton 98-74, but then it bounced back with a confidence-building 110-64 win over Doane in its most recent action. The pick: I'm primarily a situational or motivational handicapper, the actual players on the court or on the field usually don't even factor into my decision making process when handicapping, and for me, this particular contest definitely sets up well for Nebraska. I think Wisconsin comes in complacent, I think it gets caught looking ahead to its game vs. the Spartans, and I like Nebraska here in this revenge spot and getting the points. No outright, but closer than expected. This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR on Nebraska. |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulane likes to run the ball. Nevada likes to throw the ball. Tulane was poor defensively and Nevada was in the middle of the pack. The Green Wave are led by their two RB's in Stephon Huderson and Cameron Carroll. QB Mike Pratt had a sharp 18:5 TD:INT this year. Overall Tulane averages 35.4 PPG. The pick: Nevada and Carson Strong average 29.9 PPG. The Wolfpack won their first five games and then faltered down the stretch, losing their last two. This is a big opportunity to end the season on a high note and against a secondary which was terrible against the pass. Note that Strong leads a passing attack which ranks tenth in the country. I believe each offense will move the chains efficiently and I expec this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Tulane/Nevada. |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 178 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh's suddenly lost two in a row and the hapless 2-10-1 Bengals would love nothing more than to kick this division rival while it's down. Especially on National television. The Steelers most recently fell 26-15 to Buffalo, while the Bengals lost 30-7 to the Cowboys. When these teams played on November 15th, the Steelers scored the 36-10 win and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 26.9 PPG, and the Bengals are allowing 26.0 on average. The pick: Neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but the circumstances each side finds itself in definitely lends itself to more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." Also note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back SU losses, while Cincinnati has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after scoring seven or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This number is indeed a tad low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Steelers/Bengals. |
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12-21-20 | Sacred Heart v. Wagner -5 | Top | 46-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sacred Heart Pioneers are 1-2 and the Wagner Seahawks are 0-3. Sacred Heart bounced-back from a loss to LIU, to then beat LIU 87-72 in the rematch on Thursday. Wagner though has faced much stiffer competition in the early going, losing 78-45 to Seton Hall, and then falling twice to Bryant, 74-62 and 81-75. Wagner was led by 29 points and eight boards from Elijah Ford in the most recent setback and it's gotten progressively better with each outing this year, despite the win/loss record. The pick: Note as well that Wagner is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after three or more SU losses in a row. Look for the Pioneers to once again struggle on the road here and look for the hungrier home side to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points and expect a blowout. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Wagner. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State UNDER 63.5 | Top | 28-56 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: App State has closed out each of the last five years with a Bowl win and it's heavily favored to do so again on Monday afternoon. The Mountaineers finished 8-3 this season after a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern last week. UNT is 4-5, most recently entering off a 45-43 shootout victory over UTEP on Friday. While each team just finished playing to a higher-scoring victory, I think this Bowl contest at a weird time of the day and with little time to prepare, definitely sets up as a lower-scoring battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. App State averages 31.8 PPG and it allows just 19.3. UNT averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 41.3. The pick: The Mountaineers are in no fear of losing this game outright and I don't expect them to run up the score either. App State is going to run the ball and control the clock as it looks to close out this difficult campaign with one more victory. I think UNT will struggle to move the ball in the second half of this game and that'll help in contributing to push this total "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* play on the UNDER App State/UNT. |
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12-20-20 | Providence +3.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 80-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Providence has won two straight. The Friars come in fresh as their last two games have been postponed due to COVID issues. In their last game they beat TCU 79-70 as one-point underdogs. Seton Hall comes in off a 70-63 win over Marquette. Providence is well-balanced, led by David Duke it averages 74.5 PPG and it concedes 70.3. The pick: The Pirates have won four in a row. Seton Hall is led by Sandro Mamukelasvhili, as the Pirates average 76.5 PPG and allow 70.3. These teams are very evenly matched, but I like the well-rested Friars to pull off the minor upset here (that said, grab as many points as you can!) This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Providence. |
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12-20-20 | Jets +17 v. Rams | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 150 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: Are the Rams the better team? Of course. Is this a trap game for the home side? I definitely think that's the case as well. The Jets are 0-13. The odds that they'll go 0-16 are greater than if they'll go 1-16. Do you think New York could possibly be happy at this point? Yes, the Jets are planning for next year, but no team wants to go winless. The Rams on the other hand have a game at Seattle next weekend, followed by a home matchup vs. the Cardinals to end the regular season. In my opinion, this is definitely a "trap" for the home side and I think the Rams will fall right into it. The pick: Additionally note that the Rams are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after holding their previous opponent to three or less points in a SU/ATS victory. There's no need for LA to run up the score in the second half of this contest whatsoever. Instead, if it does have a lead, it'll look to kill clock, limit turnover and injuries and get ready to face the Seahawks. No outright, but closer than expected. This is a 9* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets. |
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12-20-20 | Weber State v. Portland State +5.5 | 72-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: Weber State is 3-1, coming off a 94-66 win over Portland State on Friday. With a road game at BYU on Thursday though, I expect Weber State to get caught complacent and looking ahead to that contest. Portland State is the hungrier revenge-minded team here. Previous to Friday's loss Portland State lost to Washington State.  The pick: The Vikings are still 4-1 ATS in their last five at home despite the loss on Friday, so I'm confident that this hungrier home side can bounce back. Weber State gets caught looking ahead and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Portland State. |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -105 | 148 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is the No. 7 seed. Buffalo has now clinched the AFC East, but the Fish still have plenty to play for here. Most recently Miami fell 33-27 to Kansas City. New England looks to regroup after falling 24-3 to the Rams last Thursday, it's now 6-7 overall. The Patriots have been hit or miss all year and last week they were definitely a "miss." New England will now need to run the table, while also getting outside help if it has any shot at making the playoffs. While the last five NE games have gone "under" the number, I expect today's contest to finally sneak above, as both teams are hungry for a victory here and I expect that determination to translate into production on the field. The pick: Both Tua and Newton have something to prove as well. Each QB is playing for a position on a team for next season, so it's a "game within a game" here. Also note that the Patriots have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last 11 road games after playing to three or more straight "unders." This number is a tad low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Pats/Fish. |
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12-20-20 | 49ers v. Cowboys +3 | 33-41 | Win | 100 | 147 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: These teams are moving in opposite directions. San Francisco has dropped two straight and with a loss today, it'll be officially eliminated from contention. It's been an uphill battle for the 49ers this year, who come to town without their starting QB and several other key players on both sides of the ball. With the rest of the division healthy and playing well, I think the 49ers throw in the white flag here early. The pick: Dallas snapped a two-game slide with a 30-7 win over the Bengalas last weekend. The Cowboys are in such a weak division, that if they win today and the other three teams lose, then they're going to be back in the drivers seat (and that's a very real possibility, as Philly is in Arizona, the Giants are at home to a smoking hot Browns team, and Washington is at home to the Seahawks without Alex Smith under center. The Cowboys have plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball and backup Andy Dalton finally seems to be getting up to speed. The Dallas defense looked better last weekend too and now it faces another offense with its back up QB under center. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion, but may as well grab the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Cowboys. |
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12-19-20 | Alabama v. Florida +17.5 | Top | 52-46 | Win | 100 | 152 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Alabama is really good. Great offense, great defense and it's well coached as well. Florida also has a really good offense and a decent defense. Florida lost to LSU last time out and even with a win today, it wouldn't make the College Football Playoff. But the Gators would love nothing more than to hand the Tide their first loss of the season. Despite the loss to LSU last weekend, QB Kyle Trask still had 474 yards passing and two TD's. The Bama defense has been sharp of late, but the unit has yet to see an offense quite as dynamic as this. The pick: Mac Jones is in line for the Heisman now, but for a few weeks Trask was in the conversation as well. With one last chance to impress, I like Trask to help his team keep this one interesting late. Note as well that Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing 35 points or more in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. As I mentioned off the top, I don't predict an outright upset, but everything does point to this one being much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. This is a 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Florida. |
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12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +5.5 | Top | 48-19 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo comes in off three straight wins, but after beating Pittsburgh 26-15 at home last weekend, and with a game at New England on the 28th up next, before its season finale against Miami, I do believe this sets up as a bit of a trap for the visiting side. The pick: The Broncos won't be in the post-season, but they're playing strnog down the stretch. Last weekend they posted a 32-27 road win at Carolina, proving that they're trying to finish off on a positive note. Denver has the ability to affect the playoffs and I think that's a big motivational factor. It also plays with revenge after losing this game 20-2 last season. Buffalo has not played well defensively, allowing 27.6 PPG and I think it'll struggle to contain this hungry home side. The outright is possible, but in the end grab the points. This is a 10* SUPER-SPECIAL on the Denver Broncos. |
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12-19-20 | Marist +1.5 v. Manhattan | 61-39 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: At 3-1, I think that Marist is underrated in this matchup. Overall the Red Foxes are averaging 65 PPG and they're allowing 64.5. The Manhattan Jaspers are 2-2, averaging 75.5 PPG, but conceding a whopping 79.5. The pick: The Red Foxes have the much better defense and that's going to matter here, as the Jaspers depth has to be called into question here. Look for the Red Foxes to do just enough offensively here to secure a solid cover. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Marist. |
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12-19-20 | Drexel v. Fairleigh Dickinson +4 | Top | 85-68 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the 1-5 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights to pull off the minor upset in this one. Drexel comes in off a very satisfying 81-77 win over St. Joe's in its last outing and I think a predictable letdown is imminent here. Overall the Dragons average 68 PPG and they allow 63. The pick: The Knights come in with momentum, beting Central Connecticut State 79-71 for their first win of the year last time out. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 72 PPG and it's allowing 82.8. I'll point out though that Drexel is an extremely poor 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Fairleigh Dickinson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against a team with a losing road record. The Knights have faced some stiff competition this yar (Rutgers, Providence) and they play better at home than on the road. And I think they're the much hungrier dog in this fight. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Fairleigh Dickinson. |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State OVER 57.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 143 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams opened up the season with skay starts, but each closed strong. Iowa State scored a win over Oklahoma early and it'll look to duplicate that performance here in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma's defense has come a long way since, but so too has its offense behind Spencer Rattler, who took a few games to really get going. Oklahoma closed out the regular season with six straight wins, all of the blowout variety. The Sooners have plenty of motivation to run up the score today. The pick: Iowa State enters off a 42-6 beatdown of WVU last time out and I like it to build off that impressive performance. Brock Purdy has regressed slightly this season from last, but with these two competent quarterbacks playing for a chance for the title, this one has "shootout" written all over it in my opinion. And that's my read on this one, I look for these two QB's to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 9* TOTAL on the OVER Oklahoma/Iowa State. |
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12-18-20 | Air Force +12.5 v. Nevada | 57-74 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
The set-up: I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think the conditions are right for Air Force to keep this one a lot closer than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Air Force is only averaging 55.8 PPG, but the Falcons only concede 62.3. Chris Joyce is averaging 15.8 points and 2.8 rebounds. Nevada is 5-2 and Air Force is 2-2. The Wolf Pack average 71.9 PPG and they allow 68.6. Grant Sherfield is averaging 17.6 points and 4.1 rebounds. The pick: These teams will play again on Sunday. Air Force is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the +11.5 to +14.5 points range as well. I think the Falcons' tough defensive play keeps things close in the first game of this weekend series. Grab the points. This is an 8* UNDERDOG DESTRUCTION on Air Force. |
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12-18-20 | Drake v. South Dakota +6.5 | Top | 75-57 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-0 Drake Bulldogs come in complacent and caught flat vs. this hungry 1-5 South Dakota team in my opinion. The Bulldogs early numbers are skewed due to the level of competition they've faced (averaging 84 and conceding 60.2.) The Coyotes are averaging 68.7 PPG and allowing 76. The pick: Drake smashed Air Force 81-53 at home in its last outing, but with two straight "cream puffs" at home before the X-Mas Break (Chicago State and North Dakota), I think the Bulldogs get caught looking ahead here. South Dakota lost to Drake 69-53 in late November, so the "revenge factor" comes into play here as well. I like the hungry underdog home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on South Dakota. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers v. Raiders -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -106 | 84 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: This game reminds me a lot of the Cowboys at the Bengals last weekend. Both teams had been ravaged by injury and on and off field issues. Also plenty of COVID related problems as well. I had a play on the Cowboys, as I reckoned they were the much "hungrier" team. I also felt that despite their win/loss record, the Cowboys absolutely had the better talent on the field of play as well in that matchup. And that's almost exactly the case here as well, except I'd argue that the Raiders look a lot better than the Cowboys through all three phases this year and their 7-6 record proves that. The Raiders season is on the line here. This is a "must win" game for Las Vegas, easily it's most important contest of the enitre season. Playing on the short week at home also benefits the Raiders situationally tonight. The pick: LA has nothing to play for here and I expect it to throw in the white towel early (note that it's just 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.) The public money is all over Las Vegas and this time, I think they're right. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders. |
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12-17-20 | St. Joe's +2 v. Drexel | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Joes lost to Auburn in OT to open the season, and then it lost by 22 to Kansas immediatley after. The Hawks have had to deal with some COVID issues over the last couple of weeks, so they come in rested/focused and prepared. Drexel is 3-2 so far, but it's competition is suspect for sure. Last year the Dragons were 14-19. The Hawks have plenty of veteran talent, led by Taylor Funk and Ryan Daly. The pick: Saint Joseph's is being undervalued in this spot. Yes, we have more to draw upon from Drexel, but as mentioned above, its competition to this point has been far from difficult. The trend in the early going for CBB teams dealing with COVID issues is that they've struggled a bit, but I'm bucking that trend here. The Hawks have a deep and talented group and this is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. While the outright win is obviously in play here, I'll still recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* SLAM-DUNK on St. Joseph's. |
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12-17-20 | North Dakota +7 v. Southern Illinois | 64-85 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
The set-up: North Dakota at 1-5 comes in under the radar here in my estimatoin vs. the 3-0 Southern Illinois Salukis. The Fighting Hawks are averaging 66 PPG and allowing 71.5. Southern Illinois has averaged 86.3 PPG and it's allowed 68.7. The pick: Yes, North Dakota is struggling in areas, but Southern Illinois' early numbers are skewed due to the level of the competition it's faced. North Dakota is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten road games as an underdog in the +7 to +10.5 points range. I think the Salukis come in complacent, get caught looking past their lowly opponent, and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one being decided in the closing moment. Therefore, I'm grabbing the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on North Dakota. |
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12-16-20 | Montana +7.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Montana. |
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12-16-20 | Oral Roberts +17 v. Oklahoma | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles are ranked #38th in offense and 276th in defense and the Oklahoma Sooners are ranked #30th in offense and 257th in defense. Oklahoma is coming off a 31-point win over Florida A&M on Saturday, but with the Big 12 schedule starting this weekend, with a game at home vs. Texas Tech, I think the stage is set for a minor letdown from the home side here. The pick: Oral Roberts comes in with momentum as well after beating sub-divison Bacone 96-65 in its latest action. Oral Roberts has been extremely competitive this year already, taking both Wichita State and Oklahoma State down to the wire in five-point losses. This is a few too many points for the Sooners to cover here, so make sure to grab as many as you can! This is a 9* $UPER-$HOCKER on Oral Roberts. |
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12-16-20 | Nebraska-Omaha +22 v. Colorado | 49-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: The 2-5 Mavericks are going to sneak in under the radar here in my opinion and easily get the job done by sneaking in through the back door down the stretch. In the early going the Mavericks are averaging 61.7 PPG and allowing 77.1. Only two players average in double figures for the Mavericks. I'm not going to try and convince you that Nebraska Omaha is a good team that's just run into some bad luck, as that's not the case. In every respect the Buffs are the better team. They're 3-1 and they average 72 points, while allowing 55. The pick: But with its Pac 12 schedule set to begin against Washington this weekend, I do think that Colorado takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Additionally note that Colorado has struggled mightily in this exact position for bettors by going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home and just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 overall. A great situational play here, as I look for the hungry Mavericks to comfortably cover with a solid push in the second half vs. this Colorado team which will cruise to victory and take the foot off the gas as it's winding down. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Nebraska Omaha. |
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12-15-20 | Loyola-Chicago +8.5 v. Wisconsin | 63-77 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Ramblers come in under the radar and post a solid cover here in my opinion. Loyola Chicago is 3-0 after a solid 77-66 win over UIC last time out. The Ramblers are averaging 80.3 points and allowing just 55. Loyola Chicago gets the job done with a combination of experience, depth and strong defensive play. The pick: Wisconsin comes in off a 73-62 win over URI. But with over a week off before a home game against Nebraska, followed by an X-Mas Day road matchup at Michigan State, this one sets up as a classic "trap" for the Badgers. Wisconsin averages 77.8 PPG, while allowing 59.2, but note that the Badgers just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after holding a team to 65 points or less in a victory in their last outing. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Loyola Chicago. |
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12-15-20 | Charlotte +12 v. Davidson | Top | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright victory? I'm not calling for that. But I do expect this one to be a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Charlotte is 1-3 and Davidson is 3-2. The 49ers loss to Appalachian State last time out. Davidson comes in off victories over UNLV and Georgia Southern. The Wildcats have been competitive this year, but consistency from game-to-game has been a concern in the early going. Davidson is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after an ATS victory. The pick: Charlotte's win/loss record is not indicative of how it's played. It's gotten progressively better and more competitive with each outing, losing 66-57 to East Carolina, 76-65 to Georgia State, before then beating SC State 78-40, before then falling 61-58 to the Mountaineers last time out. Note that the 49ers are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 following a straight-up loss. No outright, but look for the hungrier 49ers to cmofortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Charlotte. |
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12-15-20 | Coastal Carolina +5.5 v. Wofford | 77-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: Coastal Carolina is 4-0 and I think it comes to play today. Most recently the Chanticleers smashed subdivision Greensboro 103-45. CC has played some terrible competition, but in the early going it's numbers are definitely impressive, averaging 102.8 PPG and conceding just 60. The pick: Wofford comes in reeling after back-to-back losses. Most recently the Terriers lost a heart-breaking 58-56 contest against USF. Wofford averages 81.8 PPG and it allows 55.3. When looking at these line-ups, the numbers are very evenly matched. This one comes down to motivation and momentum and while I do think the outright win is possible, let's grab the points as this one is destined to come right down to the wire. This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on Coastal Carolina. |
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12-14-20 | Nevada v. San Diego +3.5 | 79-72 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
The set-up: San Diego is 0-1, as it's had four of its games either canceled or postponed due to COVID. San Diego was supposed to open with Cal State Fullerton, but instead when it did finally get to play it had to face UCLA. Now the Toreros finally get to play at home and I think they'll rally and find a way to take care of the 4-2 Wolfpack, who enter off an 87-77 loss to Grand Canyon State. The Wolfpack are playing their seventh game, while San Diego is playing just its second. I think fatigue is a factor for Nevada tonight. The pick: The Torero's are a younger team, but with a spread like this, clearly the oddsmaker think these teams are very evenly matched. But the outside situational factors listed above working in favor of the home side makes it the correct call here in my opinion. Grab the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on San Diego. |
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12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important divisional matchup. Baltimore crushed the Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1 and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Cleveland is coming off its fourth straight win, a 41-35 victory over Tennessee. Baltimore won 34-17 over the Cowboys. Baltimore averages 26.3 PPG and it allows just 19.3. The Browns averages 25.5 PPG, and they allow 26.8. Both teams can score, as they combine for 52 points, a figure which would push this total "over" the posted number. Both teams are decent defensively, as they combined to allow just 44 PPG. With the season winding down and so much on the line though, this one has the feel of a playoff game to me, where every inch is going to be contested. Where the game is decided in the trenches and by field position. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a run and gun "shootout." The pick: The numbers/trends support this theory as well, as note that the total has gone "under" in six of the Ravens last eight on the road. It's also gone "under" in six of these teams last eight vs. each other. A great time to pull the trigger on this situational totals play. This number is a tad high in my opinion. This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ravens/Browns. |
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12-13-20 | Mercer v. Georgia Southern +5 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Mercer is 5-0 and Georgia Southern is 3-1. After three straight wins, the Eagles lost to a tough Davidson team last time out. The Bears have looked sharp in the early going, but I think these teams are very evenly matched. The pick: Mercer has also played four smaller schools during its 5-0 start, so its numbers are skewed. I think the Bears take a step back in this difficult road venue and I look for the Eagles to bounce back after falling to Davidson and improve to 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU/ATS loss. Grab the points. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Georgia Southern. |
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12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles +7 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 151 h 14 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Saints have become the first team to qualify for the Playoffs this year afrer their 21-16 win over Atlanta last weekend and I think a predictable letdown is finally in order here. Drew Brees has been sidelined with injury the last two weeks, but Taysom Hill has filled in pretty well in his place. New Orleans is averaging 28.9 PPG and it's allowing just 20.1, but all signs point to this team finally taking the foot off the gas in my opinion, especially with a big game at home against the Chiefs next weekend, one which would likely see Brees return to action. The pick: Philadelphia is in must win mode though at 3-8-1, as another loss would see it drop out of playoff contention. The Giants lead the weak NFC East, but Philadelphia still has a mathematical shot at winning the division, it just needs to win some games. And one game at a time. Jalen Hurts is under center now for the Eagles and he can't be any worse than Carson Wentz. I think the change will electrify this still talented Eagles offense. Philly's offense needs a jumpstart, as the defense has allowed 25.6 PPG. Look for the more motivated home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Eagles. |
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12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 148 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans would love to keep the win streak going, but one has to wonder if this is a trap game or not?! New Orleans is the first team to qualify for the playoffs after last weekends win and it's won its last two games without Drew Brees under center. This also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as the Saints welcome the defending champion Chiefs next weekend. New Orleans has been superb on both sides of the ball, but Philadelphia is coming to play a full quarters today as it is in a "must win" situation. Even at 3-8-1 the Eagles are still in contention for the Division title, but they can't afford any more losses. In fact, things are so dire that they've decided to insert rookie Jalen Hurts into the line-up in hopes of jump-starting this offense. Hurts has weapons around him and I like the rookie to do just that. The pick: Additionally note that the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight SU victories in a row, while the Eagles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 after two or more SU losses. From a situational standpoint, this one definitely screams "over!" This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Saints/Eagles. |
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12-13-20 | Cleveland State +25 v. Ohio State | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: Am I predicting an outright upset? Of course not! In my opinion, this is a great "situational spot wager." The Cleveland State Vikings are 0-2 and they're completely outclassed here, but I think they'll catch Ohio State flat-footed and disinterested here and I expect them to have a golden opportunity to keep this one close enough in the second half with the large spread it's been afforded. The Buckeyes squeaked by Notre Dame 90-85 last time out, and with a game at Purdue up next, following by a neutral court affair vs. North Carolina, can anyone say "look ahead" spot as well?! The pick: Cleveland State threw in the white flag early in its 55 point loss to Ohio, but with that awkward and humbling blowout out of the way I think the Vikings are in fact being undervalued here. This is a great situational spot bet. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Cleveland State. |
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12-13-20 | Cardinals -2.5 v. Giants | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 148 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: Clearly this is a big game for both teams. The Cards are 6-6 and they'd be out of the playoff picture if the playoffs began today, while at 5-7 the Giants would be in. New York has won four straight somehow, but I think a lapse is finally in order here vs. this now desperate Cardinals team which MUST WIN today to keep their playoff hopes alive. I use motivation alot as a way to handicap games and in my opinion, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side, while Arizona enters in a "must win" situation. The pick: Note further that the Giants are still just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 at home, while the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after a three games are longer SU losing streak. Arizona still has one of the best offenses in the league and I have a hard time seeing New York keeping pace. I'm laying the points. This is a 9* PLAY-BOOK on the Cardinals. |
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12-12-20 | Appalachian State -8.5 v. Georgia Southern | 34-26 | Loss | -106 | 129 h 12 m | Show | |
The set-up: No upsets here, as I like the App State Mountaineers to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Neither team will be in the Championship game, but it's still an important contest to determine the second-place finisher in the division. App State lost 24-21 to Louisiana last time out. In that contest senior QB Zac Thomas had the absolute worst game of his career, going 10 of 21 for 92 yards and two interceptions. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that lightning bolt of futility to strike twice. Georgia Southern enters off a 20-3 win over FAU, using their backup QB in Justin Tomlin, who was 3 of 12 for 70 yards, while also rushing for an additional 78. Keep your eyes on Camerun Peoples for App State, as he has 738 rushing yards and seven TD's so far this season. The pick: Georgia Southern is stout against the run, but with its attention on Peoples, I'm predicting a massive bounce-back game here for the highly motivated Thomas. The QB issues are Georgia Southern aren't trivial. Getting by FAU is one thing, but trying to keep up with this pissed off Mountaineers side is quite another. I'm laying the points in this great situational spot. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on App State. |
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12-12-20 | La Salle +3 v. Drexel | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: La Salle is the "hungrier" dog in this fight at 1-3. So far in the early going the Explorers are averaging 63.8 points and allowing 67.3. Drexel has won three in a row and enters at 4-1, averaging 69.8 PPG and conceding 60.8. On paper, clearly Drexel is the better team. The pick: But I'll caution on reading too much into any of these numbers at this point. In a normal season, it's difficult to properly assess a team until after a full month is played. These teams are just starting their seasons and clearly the oddsmakers also believe they're very evenly matched with a spread like this. La Salle though is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 80 or more points in a victory in its last outing. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on La Salle. |
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12-12-20 | Utah -105 v. Colorado | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah would love to hand Colorado its first and only loss of the season, as this is the final regular season game for both teams. Colorado beat Arizona 24-13 on Saturday, as Jarek Broussard rushed for a career-high 301 yards. The Utes won their first game of the season last time out, beating Oregon State 30-24. RB Tyler Jordan had 167 rushing yards and a TD in the victory. The Buffs strength on offense is their run game, but the Utes strength on defense is stopping the run, allowing just 104.7 YPG on the ground. The pick: Utah's defense has also allowed just 11 first downs in 38 third-down attempts this year. Utah made big strides last week holding on for its first victory and I think it has the defense to slow the Buffs' offense down, making it much more one dimensional. And that's it in a nutshell. The outright win is obviously possible, but let's grab the points. This is a 10* PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah. |
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12-11-20 | Marist +4.5 v. Canisius | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Marist is 2-0, coming off two close victories and I expect another battle until the final horn tonight as well vs. the Golden Griffins. Last year the Red Foxes were just 7-23 and they lost to Canisius twice. This is Canisius's first game of the year and while it did beat Marist twice last season, it still only finished 12-20 overall. Marist returns key players from last year's team and a major improvement is expected. Keep your eyes on Michael Cubbage, who averaged 13.5 PPG last year. The pick: The Golden Griffins return key players as well, but I think that chemistry is going to be an issue. Marist has two games under its belt and I think that's crucial here. Marist is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more SU victories in a row. The outright is possible obviously, but grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Marist. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -107 | 86 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is going to be a very competitive, higher-scoring affair. The Patriots still have a shot at the playoffs after the NFL extended the playoff pool to seven teams for each conference. New England is coming off a 45-0 win over the Chargers, so it's been able to stay in the state, which is a huge situational advantage for the visiting side here. Cam Newton only had 69 yards passing last weekend, but the run game had 180 yards and the special teams play was incredible. The pick: The Rams and Patriots both have Top 10 defensive numbers, but each come in off high-scoring victories. LA smoked the Cardinals 38-28 last time out and it now has the lead in the NFC West over Seattle due in part to the tie-breaker. I expect these two motivated sides open up the playbook and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Pats/Rams. |
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12-10-20 | UMKC v. Minnesota -18.5 | Top | 61-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Gophers are 5-0 straight-up, but they're only 1-3-1 ATS, failing to cover in three straight. I think that trend ends here in blowout fashion. UMKC is 2-2 so far, dropping its last two, most recently 62-58 to K-State. Minnesota enters off an 85-80 win over Boston College, getting 22 points from Marcus Carr. These teams aren't even close to being on the same level and there's no risk of the Gophers losing this game outright. Minnesota will win this game easily and I think also cover the spread at the same time as it looks to take advantage of this matchup, before tough upcoming games at Illinois and versus Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The pick: Minnesota is also 4-1 ATS in its last five after three straight ATS losses, while UMKC is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 60 points or less in a SU loss in its previous outing. The Gophers have one last chance to pad their stats before the meat of their schedule and I look for them to do just that. Lay the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Minnesota. |
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12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Southern Miss OVER 43 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 98 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: FAU had a week off and returned to action last weekend and promptly fell 20-3 to Georgia Southern. FAU is now 5-2 overall and 4-1 in Conference USA standings. Southern Mississipi comes in fresh and focussed after its last two games were cancelled because of COVID concerns. The Eagles are just 2-7 and they last fell 23-20 to UTSA, but Southern Miss won't be rolling over in this nationally televised contest. Neither teams scores a lot and each is decent defensively (especially FAU, which concedes only 12.4 PPG), and those facts have definitely helped in driving this O/U line down. However, I think it's too low considering the overall situation. The pick: Also note that Southern Miss has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while FAU has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 22 after scoring three or less points in a loss in its previous outing. I look for this one to fly "over" as the game comes down the stretch. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER FAU/Southern Miss. |
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12-09-20 | California +5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 62-74 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Cal is 2-3 and I think it's going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire with the 2-2 Pepperdine Waves. Cal has lost to Oregon State, Arizona State and UCLA so far, while the Waves have lost to UCLA and SDSU. Both teams have struggled with stiffer competition and done well against the lower-tiered teams. The pick: The Waves were dominated in the second half in their loss to the Aztecs 45-26. Cal for the most part has been very competitive this year. The Golden Bears have responded well in this spot for bettors over the years though, as they're 12-4 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 58 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in their last outing. There's only a handful of games left for these teams in the regular season and I just don't see a very big talent gap whatsoever between these clubs. I think it'll come down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last and in a situation like that, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal. |
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12-09-20 | Marshall v. College of Charleston +5.5 | 84-72 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: Outright victory? Anything under 10 points and it's always a very real possibility in basketball. The Herd are 2-0 and COC is 1-2. Marshall enters off an 80-64 win over Wright State. So far the Herd are averaging 75 points and allowing 60. The pick: COC is coming off an 81-57 loss to Furman. Zep Jasper was a lone bright spot with 12 points. COC is averaging 72.3 PPG and it's allowing 73, but note that it's 7-1 ATS in its last eight after scoring 60 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. I think this one comes down to the wire, so grab as many points as you can. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on College Of Charleston. |
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12-09-20 | Rhode Island v. Wisconsin -9.5 | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
The set-up: Rhode Island is 3-2 and Wisconsin is 3-1. After three straight victories, I think the Rams take a step back here. Rhode Island averages 79.2 PPG, while allowing 73. Fatts Russell is averaging 17.6 points and 3.6 assists to lead the team. The pick: The Badgers average 79 points, while conceding only 58.5. Leading the way is Nate Reuvers, who is averaging 14 points and 4.5 rebounds, along with Micah Potter, who is averaging 12.8 points and 6.5 rebounds. Both teams are strong. But a loss to Marquette aside, the Badgers have National Championship caliber and I expect them to pull away down the stretch, as I look for their elite level defense to be just too much for the Rams to handle. Lay the points. This is an 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH on Wisconsin. |
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12-08-20 | Cal-Irvine +11 v. USC | Top | 56-91 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: USC is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. With Stanford coming to town this weekend, I think the Trojans take the foot off the gas in the second half and I like the 1-2 SU UC Irvine Anteaters to take advantage. USC comes in off its first loss of the year, a 61-58 setback to UConn, while UC Irvine enters off its first win of the year, a 104-54 win over La Sierra. The pick: USC is winning by an average margin of 11.2 PPG this year, but it's also just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 60 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. Look for the hungry Anteaters to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* $UPER-$HOCKER on UC Irvine. |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas is on the ropes. It's 3-8 and it's coming off a poor 41-17 home loss to Washington on Thanksgiving day. The Cowboys need to win this game. They basically need to win every game if they have any shot at making the playoffs. One thing's for sure though, if the Cowboys lose today, they're season is essentially over. I expect Dallas to give its best shot today. The only way this team is going to win is to put the pressure on Baltimore and hope that it makes a few mistakes. The pick: LaMar Jackson is back under center for the home side and he'll look to take advantage of this Cowboys defense which is ranked dead last in the league. Baltimore needs some wins as well and it has every reason to run up the score even if it has a lead as it tries to regain chemistry which it's recently lost. I expect both teams to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Dallas/Baltimore. |
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12-08-20 | Montana +10.5 v. Georgia | 50-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
The set-up: Outright victory? I'm not calling for one. That said, I do think this one will come right down to the wire and as such, I'm grabbing the ample points. Montana is 0-2. It won't be lacking for motivation today and that's what I like when I look at potential teams to wager on. Overall the Grizzlies are averaging 66.3 PPG and allowing 71.7. The pick: Georgia is off to a 3-0 start, but its competition has been suspect. The Bulldogs have over a week off after this game, and then conference play begins with Cincinnati coming to town. The Bulldogs are not a great team and I think they get caught looking ahead. Note as well that the Grizzlies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU losses. As mentioned off the top, no outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Montana. |
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12-07-20 | Bills v. 49ers OVER 48 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 148 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important non-conference game for both teams. The Bills are 8-3 and the 49ers are 5-6. Buffalo beat the Chargers 27-17 last time out, while the 49ers beat the Rams 23-20 on the road. Buffalo is going to try and push the tempo of this one, as it comes to the West Coast averaging 27.2 PPG, while allowing 25.6. Josh Allen has emerged this season as one of the top QB's, as he has 3,028 passing yards, 22 TD's and eight interceptions. The pick: The 49ers are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt after a slow start, due mostly to injury and COVID. San Fran snapped its three-game losing streak last time out as its finally adjusting on the offensive side with Nick Mullens under center. So far Mullens has 1,642 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. San Fran averages 23.7 PPG and it allows 23.1, but note that it's seen the total fly "over" the number in four of its last six vs. Buffalo. The Bills have seen the total fly over in four of their last five on the road and all signs point to these strong trends continuing here. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Buffalo/San Fran. |
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12-07-20 | Lipscomb -5 v. SE Missouri State | 77-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: Lipscomb is 1-3, while Southeast Missouri State is 1-1. The Bison beat Lamar in their opener, but it's faced three stiff opponents since and gone 0-3 (Tulane, Cininnati and Arkansas.) The Redhawks lost to Southern Illinois in their last outing. The Bison have performed well in this spot for bettors going, going 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. The pick: The Redhawks on the other hand are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with losing SU records. The Bison do indeed have a losing SU record, but that's due to the level of early competition. I look for Lipscomb's depth to prove to be too much for the Redhawks to handle. Lay the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Lipscomb. |
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12-07-20 | Florida Atlantic v. North Florida +3.5 | Top | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: FAU is 2-2 and North Florida is 0-5. The Owls are coming off back-to-back victories, but I think they finally stumble here vs. this desperate Ospreys side. In the early going FAU is averaging 81.8 PPG and allowing 58.3. This is in large part due to the level of its early competition though obviously. The pick: The Ospreys average 61.8 PPG and they allow 82.8. UNF has faced some decent competition out of the gate, but after four-straight on the road and one neutral site game, a little home-cooking is just what the doctor ordered for the Ospreys. With a week off before another game at Stetson, I think FAU gets caught looking ahead and flat-footed here. I'm grabbing the points, but would not be shocked by the outright victory. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on North Florida. |
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12-06-20 | Kentucky v. Georgia Tech +6.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Kentucky is 1-2 and Georgia Tech is 0-2. Last year Kentucky won this game 67-53, setting this up as a revenge spot for the home side. The Wildcats have lost their last two games and after their disappointing setback to Kansas in their last outing, I believe they come out flat here. Richmond also upset Kentucky 76-64 as a 6.5 point dog this year. The picks: Georgia Tech is desperate as it looks to avoid the 0-3 hole. The Yellow Jackets can smell the blood in the water, as this Kentucky team is just not the same as in year's past after losing its top six scorers from a year ago. Additionally note that Kentucky is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Public perception has driven this road line larger than it should be. Outright is possible, but I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can in the end. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Georgia Tech. |
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12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals OVER 48.5 | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 120 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I think this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two clubs? For me its decent defensive play and strong run games. Both teams have above-average quarterbacks directing the show as well though. Jared Goff and Kyler Murray are poised for a big game here on Sunday afternoon in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Arizona has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last six at home, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 20 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This one has "shootout" written all over it. This is a 9* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Rams/Cards. |
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12-06-20 | UCF +11.5 v. Michigan | 58-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: The picks: This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on UCF. |
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12-06-20 | Browns +5 v. Titans | Top | 41-35 | Win | 100 | 148 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are awfully similar on the offensive side of the ball, but Cleveland has the slight advantage defensively. Cleveland comes to town off a 27-25 win at Jacksonville, while Tennessee looks poised for a letdown after its 45-26 road win at Indianpolis. Cleveland's defense gets a huge boost for this game as well, with the expected return of star Myles Garrett. The pick: Tennessee played with revenge last weekend and after that emotional victory, I think a minor setback is immiment at home. Neither team has looked perfect this year, as each has suffered with consistency at times. Cleveland's issues this year came mostly though when leading receiver OBJ was injured and it took a couple of weeks for the offense to adjust. That adjustment period is now over though and this Cleveland team is one which will fight until the final moments. In a contest which I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns. |
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12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets +8 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 117 h 56 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think this is the week. This is the week that the Jets finally get off the schneid, not only covering this game, but winning outright. It's a perfect situational play in my opinion. The Jets are not giving up and want desperately to get off the schneid. Although they lost badly to Miami last weekend, previous to that they lost two very close games, against two decent teams. Vegas really needs a win as well, but the Raiders are dealing with injuries and issues of their own and are still reeling from a humbling 43-6 loss at Atlanta last weekend. The pick: Yes, the Jets are a bad team. New York has had to deal with plenty of COVID and injury issues this year, but it comes in likely healthier now that it's been all season. I look for the Jets to lay everything on the line today as they finally get into the winners circle! This is a 9* DESTRUCTION on the JETS on the MONEY-LINE. |
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12-05-20 | Samford +19 v. Belmont | Top | 96-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Samford Bulldogs are 1-1 and the Belmont Bruins are 3-0. Am I predicting an outright upset here? I'm not. But I do think this one'll be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Samford is averaging 87 PPG and it's allowing 75.5. Of course, the sample size is small, but the season is a short one. The picks: The Bruins are averaing 81.7 PPG and they're allowing 68.7. These teams numbers are similar in the early going. Belmont is absolutely the better team here, but I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent and takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Samford's offense has impressed early and I think it'll hang tight late. Grab the points! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Samford. |
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12-05-20 | Florida v. Tennessee OVER 61.5 | 31-19 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: Florida is still in the playoff hunt at 7-1 after beating Kentucky 34-10 this past weekend. Tennessee's game against Vanderbilt was postponed, so the Vols come in fresh after their last game, a 30-17 setback at Auburn all the way back on October 21st. I like the Gators and Kyle Trask to keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish, as Florida is one win or one Georgia loss away from clinching the SEC East. Florida averages 43.4 PPG and it allows 25.9. The pick: Tennessee averages just 20.1 PPG, while allowing 30.1. In their last loss to Auburn, the Vols actually outgained the Tigers 464-385, but costly turnovers were the difference. Jarrett Guarantano comes in rested here for the home side though and I think the extra time off will translate into production on the field for the hungry home side. I think Trask will put on a show this afternoon and I like Tennessee to keep it competitive until late. This number is low. This is a 9* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Florida/Tennessee. |
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12-05-20 | UL-Monroe v. Arkansas State UNDER 69 | 15-48 | Win | 100 | 97 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: ULM is 0-8, while Arkansas State is 3-5. It's been a difficult year for both teams in many ways and I expect each to come out flat and disinterested here. Arknasas State won this game 48-41 last year, but that was then and this is now. Last year ULM averaged 31.6 PPG, but now the offense is sputtering along, averaging only 16.4 PPG. That's good news to Arkansas State's poor defense. The defense has been a mess for the Warhawks as well, but the Red Wolves' offense hasn't been anything to write home about this year. The pick: It's interesting to note that Arkansas State actually has the 13th ranked pass defense in the nation. Yes, these teams struggle defensively, but that's mainly against good teams. These are two bad teams and I expect that sloppy/awkward play to result in a solid, lower-scoring "under" once the final whistle sounds. This is an 8* play on the UNDER ULM/Arkansas State. |
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12-05-20 | North Florida +3.5 v. High Point | 74-85 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams are winless. North Florida is 0-4 and High Point is 0-2. North Florida though has faced "murderers row" early thogh, with contests vs. Eastern Kentucky, NC State, Miami and Florida State. High Point has lost to Davidson and Elon. The pick: These teams are similar, but I've seen much more from the Ospreys and than the Panthers his season. Note as well that High Point is a poor 12-26 ATS in its last 38 home games, while North Florida is 21-6 ATS in it slast 27 road games. The Panthers are thin after their starters and that plays into this one as well. An outright is possible, but in the end grab as many points as you can. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on North Florida. |
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12-05-20 | Texas -7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 69-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Tom Herman is coaching for his job here for Texas. The Longhorns' offense revolves around Sam Ehlinger, who will look to move to a perfect 4-0 against K-State ofr his career. The Texas defense has taken a hit, but fortunately that unit faces the poor offense of the Wildcats, which have averaged just 362.2 yards per game of offense, with backup Will Howard now directing the show after Skylar Thompson went down with injury. The pick: To make matters worst for K-State, its defense has been even worse than its offense, allowing 426.6 yards per game and almost 270 of those yards through the air. And that's the difference-maker here for me entirely, as I expect Ehlinger to have himself a day here. Texas still has a chance to finish 7-3 (with a game at home against the lowly Jayhawks to finish it off.) I expect Ehlinger to take over this game on Saturday afternoon - lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas. |
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12-04-20 | North Dakota +21.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota is 3-0, most recently coming off a 67-64 win over Loyola Marymount. The Gophers average 84.7 PPG, and they concede just 68.7. North Dakota is 0-2, averaging 70.2, but allowing 77.5. Clearly Minnesota is the better team, but I think it takes the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets ready for Boston College to come to town on Monday. The pick: The Fighting Hawks are bad, but they know how to score. This is a great situational play in my opinion and just too many points, as I think the Gophers shiny 3-0 start has the general betting public helping in pushing this line a little too high. Clearly I'm not calling for an outright, but definitely closer than expected! This is a 10* $UPER-$HOCKER on North Dakota. |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are in search of a victory. Both teams have lost to Coastal Carolina. App State bounced back from that loss to smash Troy 47-10 last weekend. QB Zac Thomas and the Mountaineers raced out to a four touchdown lead in the first half and then never looked back. Louisiana Lafayette has won five in a row after crushing UL Monroe 70-20 last weekend. Quarterback Levi Lewis had five touchdowns in the rout. App State's defense matches up well against the Cajuns option attack though, as it's allowing only 139 rushing yards per game. The pick: Both teams run the ball extremely well and in this very important contest, I expect each to run from start to finish. While both teams have played to some very high-scoring affairs of late, I expect this one to finally fall under (note that six of these team's last eight against each other have indeed fallen "under" the number.) This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UL Lafayette/App State. |
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12-04-20 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +3 | 91-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
The set-up: In a game which I see being decided by whichever of these evenly matched teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. The Rockets are 2-2 after four games, while EMU is 0-1 after falling 83-67 at Michigan State to open up its campaign. The Rockets most recently beat Cleveland State 70-61 at home, but I think they'll struggle to find that same consistency on the road. EMU has four starters returning from a team that went 16-16 and I expect their determination after the setback to the Spartans to be a difference-maker here. The picks: EMU is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a ten points or greater SU road loss. Home court can't be overlooked as a very real advantage in this matchup. The outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points! This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Eastern Michigan. |
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12-03-20 | Arizona State -7.5 v. California | 70-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: Arizona State smashed Houston Baptist 100-77 last time out. Cal is riding a two-game winning streak, but I think it's completely outclassed here. Cal beat Nicholls 60-49 last time out. Arizona State averages 89.3 PPG, while Cal allows 60.3. The pick: This is the first true test for both teams this season. The season is still young. ASU has more depth and experience though and note that Cal is 0-5 the last five in this series. Arizona State on the other hand is 9-3 in its last 12 vs. unranked opponents. Cal doesn't have the scoring to keep pace, so lay the points! This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on Arizona State. |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 50.5 | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: Air Force is 2-2 and Utah State is 1-1. Both teams are hungry for a victory and I believe that the competition level on the field of play will translate into offensive production. Air Force won this game 31-7 last year, but I expect a much higher-scoring contest here. Air Force has had three different games cancelled already in November. Overall the Falcons score 26 points per game and allow 18.3, but those numbers are skewed due to the small sample size. The Aggies dropped their first four games, but they finally broke through with a 41-27 win over New Mexico last time out. Utah State's offense broke out in a big way in that game and I expect the Aggies to build. And they'll have to, because their defense is terrible, conceding 35.2 PPG. The pick: Air Force will score at will here on the ground and the Aggies air attack is finally working. This one has "shootout" written all over it. This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Air Force/Utah State. |
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12-03-20 | Tennessee Tech +11.5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Tennessee Tech enters off a 79-48 loss to Xavier. Kenny White Jr. was decent in defeat with 13 points. The Golden Eagles early numbers are poor, but this is a great "situational" play in my opinion, as Northern Kentucky comes in off a tight 74-73 win over Ball State in its opener and with a game at 2-0 Chattanooga up next, this sets up as a classic letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. The picks: Tennessee Tech is still 4-1 ATS in its last five overall, while UNT is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 12.5 points range. Is UNT the better team here? Probably, but there's still plenty of unknowns. I'm not predicting an outright upset, but the stage is definitely set for a much more competitive battle than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Tennessee Tech. |
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12-02-20 | Murray State v. Middle Tennessee +6 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: Murray State had its first three games cancelled, but won its last one by a lop-sided score of 173-95 over the Greenville Panthers (sub-division team obviously). MTSU is 0-2, most recently coming off a 57-43 loss to East Tennessee State. This is a big yard-stick game for both teams. They're evenly matched and I expect this one to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. The picks: MTSU's offense has been lacklustre, but it catches a break today facing this unproven Murray State offense. The Blue Raiders' defense though has been sharp and the massive step up in play, combined with the road venue will prove to be Murray State's undoing today in my estimation. I think the home side pushes the pace from start to finish and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on MTSU. |
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12-02-20 | Morehead State +24.5 v. Ohio State | 44-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
The set-up: Morehead State enters this game off a confidence building 69-61 win over Arkansas State last time out and while I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything here, I do think that the Buckeyes will get caught looking past their lowly opponent today to a few days, before three straight road games at Notre Dame, Purdue and North Carolina respectively. From a situational stand point, the back door has definitely been left wide open for the Eagles to fly through. Ohio State is 2-0, coming off a 74-64 win over UMass-Lowell last time out. The pick: This same Morehead State team just gave Richmond a run for its money a couple of weeks ago, a team which just upset Kentucky a few days ago. Ohio State is the better team that's playing at home, but this is way too many points considering the circumstances. I'm grabbing the points. This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on Morehead State. |
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12-02-20 | Ravens +10 v. Steelers | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Unfortunately, I played this game before all of the issues that the Ravens have gone through over the last week and I have the opening line of 3.5. I'm locked into this play and while I obviously don't love it as much as I did before all of this happened, I still do think that the Ravens have a legitimate shot at upsetting the Steelers outright. Baltimore plays with revenge after a 28-24 loss at home on November 1st. The Ravens actually outgained the Steelers 457 to 221 in that one and had 25 first downs compared to just 19. However, Pittsburgh won the turnover battle 4 to 1 and that was the difference in the end. The Ravens and Steelers are very evenly matched with their numbers through all three phases. The pick: The Ravens have both of their star RB's available now as well to play. Whoever is under center for Baltimore today, I think that the Ravens will "step up" here and "man up" and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Ravens. |
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12-01-20 | South Dakota +13 v. Nebraska | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cornhuskers enter off a disheartening 69-66 last second loss to Nevada in their last game and I think they'll still collectively be hung up on that setback. SDSU won't be lacking for motivation as it's 0-2 to start. Most recently the Coyotes lost 69-53 to Drake. The pick: The Cornhuskers are the bigger, more talented team that's at home and on paper, they're clearly the better team here. But I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the underdog visiting side, which I think comes in under the radar here. With a game vs. lowly FAMU up next, I think the Huskers come out flat here and play down to the level of their competition. Conversely, everything points to SDSU fighting tooth and nail until the final horn. Grab the points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on South Dakota. |
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12-01-20 | Cleveland State +9.5 v. Toledo | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cleveland State won only 11 games last year, but with most of its players returning, the Vikings are going to take a step forward this season. This is a revenge game as well, as Toledo won this game on the road 80-65. The ROckets have lost two of their first three, including a three-point loss to Xavier. The pick: I think Toledo is the better overall team in this matchup, but the situation favors Cleveland State. I think Toledo is still mentally hung up on the Xavier loss, while Cleveland State is not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers in my estimation considering the players that are returning. No outright, but much closer than this spread would suggest. This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Cleveland State. |
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12-01-20 | Oklahoma State +4 v. Marquette | 70-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: Oklahoma State is 2-0 and I think an outright win is possible in this matchup as well. Most recently it enters off a 20-point win over Texas Southern. Marquette is 2-0 as well, most recently beating Eastern Illinois 75-50 on Friday. Overall the Cowboys average 80.0 PPG and they allow 66.5, while Marquette averages 87 and allows 53.5. Of course, these early numbers for both teams are skewed due to the level of the competion. The pick: With a spread like this, the oddsmakers clearly believe these teams are evenly matched. And they are. However Oklahoma State's outside shooting is the difference maker for me (42% from range). In a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. This is an 8* SUPER SHOCKER on Oklahoma State. |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 51 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -108 | 179 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle has lost three of its last five and it needs to keep winning here to maintain its lead. The Hawks have some hope though, as Arizona is coming off a loss in New England. These teams last played a playoff game last January and Seattle won 17-6. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much more wide-open affair here though, as each team truly is desperate for a victory today. Philadelphia is coming off a second-straight loss, falling 22-17 to Cleveland at home. Overall the Hawks average 31.8 PPG. Seattle's defense has been poor though and the secondary has some key injuries today, including S Marquise Blair and Lano Hill and cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Neiko Thorpe are out. The pick: Philly is only averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 25.4. I'll point out though that the Eagles have seen the total fly "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after scoring 19 points or less in a loss in their last outing. More than anything, this sets up great as a "shootout" from a situational standpoint. Both teams have weapons on offense, and I expect them to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Hawks/Eagles. |
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11-29-20 | Saints v. Broncos OVER 44.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Everything on paper here screams "under," but I'm going the other way and expecting the undermanned Saints to "man up" and push the pace from start to finish. New Orleans defense looked good against the Falcons last weekend, but I think the unit will struggle in this difficult road venue. Denver comes in off a 20-13 win over the Dolphins, so this is a team which has not even come close to throwing in the towel yet. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for a higher-scoring affair. The pick: Note as well that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after holding its previous opponent to 13 points or less in a victory, while New Orleans has seen the total fly over in five of its last six on the road. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Saints/Broncos OVER. |
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11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars OVER 46.5 | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 147 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Browns are 7-3 and ready to finally break out with a big offensive game. Cleveland has had to deal with plenty of inclement weather conditions the last few weeks, but now this high-powered offense can be unleashed in sunny conditions and vs. this poor Jacksonville secondary. The Browns earned a close 22-17 victory over Philly at home last time out, but I expect a much higher-scoring affair this time around. The pick: Mike Glennon gets the nod for the visitors, who will be eager to atone for a poor effort against the Steelers last weekend. Fortunately for Glennon he faces one of the worst defenses in the league. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I expect that trend to finally end here. The play is the over. This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Browns/Jaguars. |
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