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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-19-22 | Alabama +9.5 v. Kentucky | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
9* ALABAMA (ASSASSIN) Alabama won't be rolling over here. The Crimson Tide have won 3 straight, most recently beating Mississippi State by a score of 80-75 on Wednesday. Jahvon Quinerly had 21 points. Kentucky enters on the other end of the spectrum, as the Wildcats just had their 6 game win streak snapped last time out in a 76-63 upset loss to Tennessee. Oscar Tshiebwe was a lone standout with 13 points and 15 boards. These teams average 80 PPG each, but Kentucky has done better on the defensive end. Situationally though, this one sets up great for 'Bama, which is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 59 or less points in (lost 66-55 to UK on February 5th.) The conditions are right for an outright upset, but let's grab the points; the play is Alabama! AAA Sports |
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02-19-22 | TCU +12.5 v. Baylor | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
9* TCU (BLOOD-BATH) TCU won't be rolling over here. It's 16-7, including 4-2 on the road. Baylor is 21-5 and 12-2 at home, but it's struggled somewhat of late, entering off an 83-73 road loss at Texas Tech as a 1.5-point underdog. TCU though plays with revenge here after a 76-64 home loss to the Bears as 10-point underdogs on January 8th. And that's important to note in this case, as TCU is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS home loss against a conference opponent. The Bears have shown cracks in the armor of late. No outright, but much, much closer than expected; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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02-18-22 | Missouri +10.5 v. Mississippi State | 49-68 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
8* MISSOURI (DESTRUCTION) This is the first game of a home and home set and I like the underdog visiting side to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Bulldogs are 14-10 overall, and 5-6 in league play, while the Tigers are 10-15 overall, and 4-8 in conference action. This is a revenge game of sorts for the Tigers, as they've lost 4 straight in this series. Missouri has been competitive, despite its win/loss record. It has a victory over Alabama and it lost by 1 point to Auburn. Off a 76-57 loss to No. 23 Arkansas, note that the Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a SU/ATS conference loss in which they were held to 59 or less points in. The Tigers average 66 PPG, while allowing 70.6. The Bulldogs come in with the better record, but zero momentum, having log four straight, most recently an 80-75 setback to Alabama. The Bulldogs average 73 PPG, while allowing 67. Mississippi State has struggled with consistency of late and I like the under the radar Tigers to hang around late; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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02-17-22 | Oregon -4.5 v. Arizona State | 57-81 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
9* OREGON (DESTRUCTION) I like the way this one sets up for the Ducks. They're 17-8 overall this season, which includes going a near-perfect 5-1 on the road. Arizona State on the other hand is just 8-15 this season, which includes a sub-par 5-6 record at home. The Ducks held on for a 62-59 win at home over Washington State last time out, but they were unable to cover the 5-point spread. Oregon has now lost 4 straight against the spread, which is noteworthy in this instance, as the Ducks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after 3 or more ATS losses in a row. They also play with the added incentive of "revenge" here after somehow losing to the Sun Devils 69-67 in OT at home as 9-point favs in early December. ASU only averages 63.9 PPG. Off a rare win last time out, a 58-55 victory over WSU as a 10.5-point underdog, everything points to a predictable letdown here for sure in my opinion. Look for the hungry Ducks to keep the foot on proverbial gas pedal from start to finish; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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02-17-22 | Michigan +5.5 v. Iowa | 84-79 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
9* MICHIGAN (BLOWOUT) Michigan is just 3-6 on the road, but I think it'll take Iowa down to the wire today. The Hawkeyes are 13-2 at home. The Wolverines are off a 68-57 home loss to Ohio State as 3-point favs. That's noteworthy in this case, as Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite and in which it was held to 60 points or less in. Iowa is off 3 straight victories. Most recently it was a 98-75 win over Nebraska. With a game at Ohio State this weekend, I think the home side will clasically get caught "looking ahead." Iowa is also just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 off a SU/ATS win in which it scored 95 or more points in. In a contest that I see being decided late, the official call here will be to grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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02-16-22 | Gonzaga v. Pepperdine +29.5 | Top | 86-66 | Win | 100 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
10* PEPPERDINE (WC GOM) Am I suggesting that the Waves will post one of the biggest regular seson upsets in College basketball history tonight, or do I believe that Gonzaga will win this game, but that this spread is much too large? Clearly, it's the latter of those 2 scenarios. I love how this one sets up for Pepperdine to keep it much closer than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Gonzaga is No. 1 in the nation, but it's just 13-8-2 ATS overall. With a game at home against 17-9 Santa Clara, I think the visitors take the foot off the gas in the second half. Pepperdine lost 117-83 at Gonzaga as a 30-point underdog on January 8th (but note that it's 7-1 ATS in its last 8 in trying to revenge a conference road loss of 25 or more points!) In every conceivable way the Bulldogs are the better team here, but this spread is simply too large when we take into account the overall situation; grab the points, the play is Pepperdine! AAA Sports |
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02-16-22 | Seton Hall v. Connecticut -5.5 | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 29 m | Show | |
9* UConn (9* BLOOD-BATH). The 15-8 Seton Hall Pirates are only 4-4 on the road, while the 17-7 Connecticut Huskies are 10-2 at home. After a 74-68 loss to Xavier, the Huskies bounced back with a 63-60 win over Saint John's in their most recent outing. They play with revenge here after falling 90-87 to Seton Hall in OT on January 8th (they're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in trying to revenge a SU conference road loss against an opponent.) Seton Hall had its 3 game win streak snapped in a 73-67 loss at Villanova in its most recent action. With a home game against lowly DePaul this weekend, I say the visiting side gets caught looking ahead. The stage is set for a blowout; lay the points with confidence! AAA Sports |
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02-15-22 | Iona -4.5 v. St. Peter's | Top | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
10* IONA (GOW) Iona is 20-5. It's coming off a 70-62 win over Monmouth at home, unable to cover the 8.5-point spread. It won't be taking Saint Peter's lightly today on the road, as while it did beat the Peacocks 85-77 at home on January 30th, it failed to cover the 10-point spread. Saint Peter's is 11-9, but it's off a poor 58-49 loss at home to Rider as a 7.5-point fav (note that the Peacocks are a disturbingly poor 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 50 or less points in.) The stage is set for a blowout of epic proportions; the official call will be to lay the points! AAA Sports |
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02-13-22 | Green Bay +6 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | Top | 44-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10* WISCONSIN GREEN BAY (ASSASSIN) Wisconsin Green Bay is just 4-20 overall, which includes going 0-12 on the road. The Phoenix are off a 71-62 loss to NKU. They only average 61.7 PPG. Milwaukee is just 8-18. It's off a monumental 60-57 win at home here over Wright State as a 9-point underdog and I believe that a predictable letdown is imminent here. The Panthers only average 65.2 PPG. The Phoenix play with revenge here as well after falling 63-49 to the Panthers at home on January 5th. I expect the visiting side to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover as the game comes down the stretch; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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02-12-22 | Florida State +8.5 v. North Carolina | 74-94 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
9* FLORIDA STATE (CRUSHER) Florida State got caught looking ahead to this game after falling 56-51 to lowly Pittsburgh on Wednesday. I say the Seminoles bounce back here though and while they likely won't win this one outright, we can expect a good-old fashioned back-and-forth battle for sure in my opinion. UNC doesn't have any excuses either for its 79-77 win over Clemson, as it barely held on for the victory. FSU averages 71.2 PPG, while allowing 69.2, while UNC averages 78.1, while conceding 72.8. FSU is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 after a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to 55 or fewer points in. I expect this to be another tight battle for the Tar Heels; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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02-12-22 | Texas +5.5 v. Baylor | 63-80 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
8* TEXAS (DESTRUCTION) In this battle, I expect it to come down to the final moments. Texas averages 68.7 PPG, while Baylor averages 77.8. Baylor got crushed by Kansas by 24 points, before then bouncing back with a 75-60 win over K-State on Saturday. Texas is off a big upset win over Kansas, holding on for the 79-76 victory. The Longhorns' defense leads the nation, conceding just 55.8 PPG. The Bears concede 62.2. Look for the Longhorns' tough defensive play to keep the competitive late; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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02-11-22 | Wright State v. Wisc-Milwaukee +7 | Top | 57-60 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
10* MILWAUKEE (MAULING) After 4 straight victories, I expect the Raiders to have a bit of a mental lapse here. Milwaukee has struggled this year, but after losing 6 in a row, I expect the Panthers to play with desperation here and to, at the very least, keep this one tight until the final moments. Wright State has "righted" the ship after a shaky start, but with a game against Northern Kentucky next, I expect it to look past its lowly, but dangerous opponent tonight. Milwaukee plays with revenge here as well after an 80-75 home loss to Wright State back on December 30th. The Panthers covered with the ten-point spread in that contest and all signs point to that comfortably happening again tonight; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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02-10-22 | Ohio -12.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 81-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
10* OHIO (MAC BOB) I think the 19-4 Ohio Bobcats will lay the hammer down here on the 6-14 CMU Chippewas. Ohio will be especially motivated here and will keep the foot on the gas from start to finish after a poor 77-62 loss to Toldeo in its last outing. Conversely, CMU is poised for a predictable letdown off an upset overtime 89-85 win over Ball State. Situationally speaking, they don't set up much better than this. Ohio averages 74.4 PPG, while conceding 66.5, while CMU averages 65.8 PPG, while allowing 79.3. The Chips are also a terrible 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win. Look for Ohio to dig deep here and to pour on the offense from start to finish; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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02-09-22 | Alabama -5.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 97-83 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
10* ALABAMA (SEC BOB) Alabama is coming off B2B double-digit losses, falling to Auburn and Kentucky. Suffice it to say, I LOVE the Tide to bounce back here on the road. They're now 14-9 overall (just 4-6 in SEC action.) Ole Miss is off a 62-57 loss to Florida. The Rebels are 12-11 overall and 3-7 in conference action. The bottom line is, I have a hard time seeing the home side keeping pace with the Tide, who average over 80 PPG. They've struggled defensively in conceding just over 75 PPG, but they catch a break here facing this more methodically-paced Rebels offense. Ole Miss has done a decent job defensively as well, but its lack of offensive punch is the difference today; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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02-09-22 | Wake Forest v. NC State +2.5 | 69-51 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
8* NC STATE. Wake Forest is 19-5 overall, but just a pedestrian 4-3 on the road this year. NC State is only 10-14 this season, including just 7-7 at home. The Wolfpack enter off 4 straight losses, most recently falling 69-57 to Notre Dame as 1-point favorites at home. Wake is off B2B wins, most recently pulling away for a 68-60 win at Florida State as a 2-point underdog. Wake Forest is led by the dynamic Alondes Williams, who averages 19.8 PPG. Somehow they managed a win last time out despite committing 26 turnovers. The Wolfpack have a dominant player as well in Dereon Seabron, who averages 18 PPG. After their last upset win on the road, I believe the Deacons finally stumble here against the determined home side; that said, grab the points! AAA Sports |
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02-08-22 | Michigan -1.5 v. Penn State | 58-57 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
8* MICHIGAN (DESTRUCTION) This is just Penn State's 2nd home game in the last 27 days. Michigan enters off a loss, but I expect it to build off its 82-76 setback to No. 4 ranked Purdue on Saturday. Keep your eyes on Hunter Dickinson, who had a career-best 28 points in the losing cause. Michigan's better at home than on the road, but I say this is a great spot for a bounce back. The Nittany Lions are 7-3 at home. They're off a 51-49 loss at Wisconsin, which is significant to note as they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU road loss in which they were held to 50 or less points in. Look for Dickinson to be too much for Penn State to handle today; lay the short points! AAA Sports |
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02-08-22 | Lipscomb +15 v. Liberty | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show | |
9* LIPSCOMB (ASSASSIN) Am I calling for an outright victory here? I am not. But I do think that Lipscomb has everything in place to sneak in under the radar here and score a comfortable ATS cover with all the points it's been given in this one. The Bisons are off a 77-68 loss at home to Florida Gulf Coast. They do average a decent 74.9 PPG though. The Flames average only 73.3, but boast one of the strongest defenses in the nation. That said, with a game at 14-8 Jacksonville up next, I say the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Finally, note that Lipscomb is in fact 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a conference road do in the +14.5 to +17.5 points range; no outright, but closer than expected! AAA Sports |
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02-08-22 | Fordham v. St Bonaventure -11.5 | Top | 51-76 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
10* ST. BONAVENTURE (MAULING) Fordham is just 10-11. It's coming off a 72-69 loss to Saint Joseph's. The Rams margin of error most nights is slim, as they average 68.8 PPG, while allowing 68.1. St. Bonaventure is 12-7, including going 7-2 in its last 9 at home. The Bonnies average 70.4 PPG, while allowing 68.6. Three players average in double figurs for the Rams, while five players do the same for the Bonnies. St. Bonaventure is winning games by an average of 9 points at home, while the Rams have seen their point production drop to 63.7 on the road; lay the points, expect a rout! AAA Sports |
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02-07-22 | Northern Arizona v. Northern Colorado -9.5 | Top | 60-82 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
10* NORTHERN COLORADO (GOW) Northern Arizona is 8-14, including just 2-6 on the road. Northern Colorado is 11-11, including 5-3 at home. Northern Colorado just won 74-71 at Northern Arizona on Saturday, unable to cover the 5.5-point spread. UNCO has now lost 4 straight ATS, but note that it's 7-3 ATS in its last 10 after playing to 3 or more straight ATS losses in a row. The Bears average 77.5 PPG, while the Lumberjacks average only 69.2. Revenge, they say, is a dish best served cold. That said, the Lumberjacks simply don't have the firepower to keep up with the home side. Northern Colorado will be cautious to not take the foot off the gas pedal this time after the "close call" last time out; lay the points, expect an ATS rout! AAA Sports |
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02-06-22 | Akron v. Miami-OH +1 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
10* MIAMI OHIO (MAC GOM) I base my picks on many different factors. I've always felt that beling flexible with your approach when it comes to handicapping games is the best way to secure profits over the short, mid and long-term. Often plain old "common sense" or the "eye test" is the best way to approach a game. Other times, getting into every tiny stat and detail is important. Other times, stats, trends or lop-sided numbers is the correct angle to take. This one boils down to common sense. Miami Ohio plays with immediate revenge here after falling 66-55 at Akron two nights ago. The Zips only average 71.7 PPG, while the Redhawks average 75.5. Miami Ohio is also 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS conference road loss against an opponent; lay the short points, expect a decisive victory! AAA Sports |
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02-06-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Missouri State | 71-62 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
8* Loyola Chicago (DESTRUCTION) The Ramblers hit the road at 17-4 overall and 8-2 in league play. Missouri State has an 8-3 record in conference action. The Bears started the season at 4-4, but they've since won 13 of their last 16 games. This is going to be a great game, but I expect the visiting side to find a way to deliver. Loyola Chicago is off a 78-64 win over over Illinois State on Wednesday. It averages 110.7 points per 100 possessions. They also allow a league-low 94.9 points per 100 possessions (also lead the conference in turnover rate at 19.7 percent.) Missouri State is off a 69-54 win over Southern Illinois. It averages 113.1 points per 100 possessions, while posting a middle of the pack 101.0 defensive rating, which ranks 4th in the MVC. I say the Ramblers suffocating defensive play is the difference here! AAA Sports |
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02-05-22 | Louisville +6.5 v. Syracuse | 69-92 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
8* LOUISVILLE. The 11-11 Louisville Cardinals are on the road to take on the 11-11 Syracuse Orange. This one has the "feel" of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top. Louisville is off a tight 90-83 OT loss to UNC, while Syracuse is off an 89-82 win over NC State. The Cardinals both average and concede 69 PPG this year, while Syracuse averages 77.8 and allows 75.5. Louisville rallies here with coach Chris Mack now gone and while I do think the outright is possible, let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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02-05-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +2 | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
8* Georgia Tech The Clemson Tigers are 12-9, while the Georgia Yellowjackets are 9-12. GT lost to VT by a score of 81-66 in its most recent outing, while Clemson beat Florida by a score of 75-69. The Tigers are just 2-2 in their last 4 though. They average 73 PPG, while allowing 67.1. GT averages 69.8 PPG, while allowing 69.7. The last time these teams played, Clemson won by a score of 74-72 as a 4-point fav. Expect a similar hard-fought battle here, one that's decided in the final moments; so because of that, grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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02-04-22 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -2.5 | 57-58 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
8* CSU (ASSASSIN) The Colorado State Rams are 16-3 this season, including 6-3 in Mountain West action. The SDSU Aztecs on the other hand are 12-5 and 4-2. The Rams play with revenge here after falling 79-49 to SDSU back on January 8th. SDSU hasn't been perfect. It comes in complacent here in my estimation after a blowout 72-47 victory over New Mexico on Monday (note that it's just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 after a SU/ATS win in which it held its opponent to 50 or less points in.) SDSU averages 64.6 PPG, while allowing 56.8. Since that 30 point loss to the Aztecs though, the Rams won 5 straight, including against Utah State, a team SDSU just lost to previously. But they won't be lacking for motivation now after 2 more straight losses, most recently falling 84-78 to Wyoming in OT. The Rams though are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in trying to revenge a 20 points or greater road loss to an opponent. Revenge is a dish best served cold is what they say, and it's supposed to be FREEZING in Colorado tonight; the play is CSU! AAA Sports |
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02-04-22 | Harvard +4.5 v. Brown | Top | 65-50 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
10* HARVARD (GOM) Harvard is 10-7 and 2-3 in Ivy League play after a tight 78-74 loss to Penn on Friday. Noah Kirkwood leads the Crimson with 18.1 points and 3.3 assists per game. Harvard has three players averaging in double digits in scoring and overall it averages 75.4 PPG. Brown is just 10-12 overall and 2-5 in league play. It's coming off a 74-72 loss to Cornell on Sunday. The Bears average 71.9 PPG. This is a revenge game for Harvard, and I say that's the difference-maker here today. Brown won the first meeting 84-73 as a 3.5-point road fav. Expect this one to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last; the play is Harvard! AAA Sports |
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02-03-22 | Nicholls State v. Incarnate Word +10 | Top | 63-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* INCARNATE WORD (BOB) Nicholls State is 13-9, while Incarnate Word is 4-18. The Colonels enter in off a 2nd straight win, getting past Houston Baptist by a score of 73-61. Nicholls averages 79.5 PPG, while allowing 71.2. Will the Colonels get caught looking past their lowly opponent today? That's what I'm reckoning! Incarnate Word has lost 5 straight. It's off a 78-68 loss to SE Louisiana. The Cardinals average 66.7 points per game, while allowing 76.7. Not a recipie for success obviously, but they've been better at home than on the road. Incarnate Word is also 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games as an underdog in the +9.5 to +11.5 points range. Look for the visiting side to stumble here as it gets caught looking past its opponent; no outright, but closer than expected! AAA Sports |
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02-03-22 | Eastern Michigan +16.5 v. Ohio | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
8* EMU (PUNISHER) Am I suggesting that the 8-12 EMU Eagles are going to go into Ohio and knock off the 17-3 Bobcats straight up? I'm of course not calling for that at all. I do though think the stage is set for a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. EMU enters off an 86-66 blowout loss to Toledo, while Ohio comes in off an 87-63 victory over Ball State. The Eagles average only 71.6 PPG, while allowing 74.8. Ohio doesn't blow teams out of the water with an offense that averages 74.6 points per game, but the Bobcats make up for it on the other end by conceding just 66. I say the mighty home side comes out a bit complacent here and takes the foot off the gas in the 2nd half. Eastern Michigan is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 as a conference road dog in the +15.5 to +17.5 points range as well. No outright, but closer than expected! AAA Sports |
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02-02-22 | Florida State +3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 69-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* FSU (CRUSHER) Florida State is 13-7 and Clemson is 11-9 this year. The Seminoles are off back-to-back losses, most recently it was an 85-72 loss at home to Virginia Tech as a 1.5-point favorite. Clemson crushed Pittsburgh 75-48, but then it came up short in its most recent game, a 71-69 setback to Duke. This is the first meeting between the schools this year, with the next one coming in Tallahassee on the 15th. But Florida State has actually been quite good on the road this year, it has an 83-81 win at NC State on January 1st, a 76-71 win at Syracuse in the middle of the month and a 61-60 win at Miami on January 22nd. In fact the Seminoles are only one of four teams in the ACC with a winning conference road record. Florida State is also 3-0 against Miami and Duke, the current No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the ACC Standings. And if the Seminoles win today it would mark the school's record 17th consecutive season that they've won at least seven conference games under Leonard Hamilton, Now for Clemson, I just think its primed for a letdown here after that "CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR" loss to Duke. It had a chance down 67-65, but it had a three-ball rim out. After that crushing loss, I say the Tigers stumble here again against this deep Florida State team! AAA Sports |
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01-31-22 | West Virginia +14.5 v. Baylor | Top | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* WVU (GOW) WVU is coming off a 77-68 loss to Arkansas. WVU won't be lacking for motivation today after 5 straight losses. Baylor is off an 87-78 loss to Alabama and while it sits in 2nd in the Big 12 with a 6-2 record, I say it gets caught looking past its opponent today to its huge matchup at Kansas on February 5th. And really, they don't set up from a situational standpoint much better than this. WVU is under the radar, undervalued after so many losses. Baylor has been consistently over-priced this season with its spreads, and that caught up to it last time out. I say it does again here with such a big road game on deck next. Outright win?! Of course not! But expect this one to be competitive until the final moments; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-30-22 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +5.5 | Top | 60-59 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
10* ECU (ATS BLOOD-BATH) The 14-6 Cincinnati Bearcats are going to get caught looking past the 11-8 ECU Pirates today in my opinion. David Dejulius averages 13.4 points and 2.4 assists for the Bearcats this season. They're coming off a road loss at Temple and I say they're now ripe for the picking. ECU plays with revenge here after falling 79-71 at Cincinnati at the start of January (that's important to note as ECU is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 in trying to revenge a conference road loss to an opponent.) Outright win?! Anything is possible! That said, let's grab the points for sure! AAA Sports |
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01-29-22 | BYU v. Pacific +14 | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
8* PACIFIC. The 17-5 BYU Cougars are on the road to take on the 5-13 Pacific Tigers. BYU's 3 game win streak came to an end last time out in a loss to Santa Clara. Pacific plays with revenge here though after falling 73-51 on the road as a 17-point underdog. BYU averages 74 PPG, while allowing 68.8, while Pacific averages 65.1 PPG, while allowing 68.7. I say Pacific catches BYU at the right time here (also note that the Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS road loss to an opponent!) AAA Sports |
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01-29-22 | South Florida +6 v. Tulsa | 45-76 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
8* SOUTH FLORIDA. South Florida has a 6-12 record after falling 74-54 to SMU in its most recent outing. Tulsa is just 6-12 itself after dropping a 97-63 decision to Tulane. USF scores 89.4 points per 100 possessions while allowing 97.3, while Tulsa scores 101.8 points per 100 possessions while allowing 105.6. This is a very evenly matched game, and home-court advantage isn't a factor here in my opinion. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-29-22 | Pepperdine +20 v. St. Mary's | Top | 57-81 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
10* PEPPERDINE. Outright victory? I'm of course not calling for that. But I do think the lowly Waves can sneak in under the radar today. Pepperdine has lost 7 straight, most recently falling 64-56 to San Diego. The Gaels are going to get caught complacent here after their 72-70 upset win over San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog. Pepperdine averages 67.2 PPG, while allowing 76.2, while Saint Mary's averages 72 PPG, while allowing 59.1. With a game at Portland up next, I say the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half; no outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-28-22 | Manhattan +6.5 v. St. Peter's | Top | 51-77 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
10* MANHATTAN (MAULING) The Jaspers defeated Sienna 76-58 on Friday, with Jose Perez scoring 32-points. But Manhattan then lost 78-62 to Monmouth on Sunday. The Jaspers average 73.5 points per game, while Saint Peter's averages only 65.9. Saint Peter's is 8-7 overall this year, while Manhattan is 10-6. This is the first matchup of the year, but the Jaspers lost the last matchup 68-54 as 6.5-point dogs. I say they keep it a lot closer than that this time around; the outright is possible, but let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-27-22 | Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Detroit | Top | 67-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* BLUES (EXPRESS) Calgary is off B2B blowout wins, but I think it'll have difficulties here in St. Louis. Most recently the Flames clobbered Columbus 6-0 on the road. St Louis though plays with revenge here after a 7-1 setback at Calgary just last week. The Blues are 6-2 in their last 8 in trying to revenge a road loss of 5 or more goals to an opponent as well. Calgary is back home for a game against the Canucks next, so I think it gets caught looking ahead to that more winnable game. The Blus are 16-4-1 at home this year. Look for that streak to get added to tonight; lay the reasonable price! AAA Sports |
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01-26-22 | Northwestern +8 v. Michigan | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
10* NORTHWESTERN (BIG 10 GOY) Northwestern is 9-8 this season. while Michigan is 9-7. The Wildcats though are going to be eager to avoid a 3rd straight conference loss today, while I do think that Michigan could be caught a little complacent. Northwestern has indeed lost 2 in a row, but against 2 really good teams, losing 82-76 to 15-3 Wisconsin, before then dropping an 80-60 contest against 16-3 Purdue in its most recent. Boo Buie led the way in the loss with 17 points and three assists. Michigan is just 5-5 in its last 10, but it broke a 3-game slide with B2b victories, first beating Maryland 83-64, and then most recently pulling away for an 80-62 win at Indiana. The Wolverines shot a season-best 64.7 percent from the floor and Hunter Dickinson had 25 points and nine rebounds. But with a game at rival Michigan State this weekend in what will be one of the most highly anticipated Big Ten games of the season, I think that the Wolverines do finally get caught looking ahead here and take the foot off the proverbial gas pedal. I say this one MEANS more to the Wildcats; grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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01-25-22 | Michigan State v. Illinois -5 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10* ILLINOIS (BOB) Michigan State is off a huge win over a red hot Wisconsin team as a 5-point dog and I think it's now primed for a predictable letdown here. Illinois on the other hand has lost 2 in a row. Despite being 4-0 on the road, I like the Illini to bounce back here at home where they are 8-2 so far this season. The Spartans average 75.3 PPG, while the Illini average 79.3. Illinois though is essentially in a must win scenario here as it tries to avoid a 3rd straight conference loss. The setback to Maryland is a concern, but note that's 8-2 ATS in its last 10 conference home games as a favorite in the -3.5 to -6.5-points range. I expect the "hungrier" home side to play with desperation, while everything points to a small letdown finally here for the surging Spartans; lay the points! AAA Sports |
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01-24-22 | CS Sacramento +2.5 v. Northern Arizona | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* SACRAMENTO STATE (GOW) The Sacramento State Hornets are 5-9 this year. The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are 6-11. Two evenly matched teams here. This one's going to come down to the wire! The Hornets have lost 3 straight. Most recently it was a frustrating 73-72 OT loss to Idaho. Sacramento State averages 65.4 PPG, while allowing 70. It looked a lot better on both ends of the court last time out and I expect it to build. The Lumberjacks are off a listless 58-48 loss to Montana. They average 69.3 PPG, while allowing 72.7. Sacramento State though is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 following a SU loss and 4-1-1 ATS in is last 6 vs. teams with a win % below .400. Conversely, Northern Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall. You know what, I think that the outright upset is a very real possibility; however the official call will be to grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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01-23-22 | Michigan +4 v. Indiana | Top | 80-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10* MICHIGAN (BIG 10* GOM) The 8-7 Wolverines are hungry for another win here after defeating Maryland 83-64. The Hoosiers are 14-4, and off a tight 68-65 win over Purdue on Thursday. Both teams are among the best in the nation defensively. Each is pretty comparable on the offensive end. Clearly, Indiana has the home-floor advantage here, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a favorite in the -3.5 to -7.5 points range. Hunter Dickinson and the Wolverines on the other hand are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU/ATS home win in which they score 80 or more points; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-22-22 | UC San Diego +9.5 v. CS-Fullerton | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
8* UC SAN DIEGO (BLOWOUT) CSU Fullerton has won six in a row, so I expect it to come in complacent here against 8-9 UC San Diego. The Tritons have lost four in a row, but note that they're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after three or more SU losses in a row. Fullerton averages 72.5 points and allows 67.3, while San Diego averages 69.7 points and allows 68. Look for the Tritons to sneak in through the back door with the large amount of points they've been afforded here! AAA Sports |
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01-22-22 | West Virginia +9 v. Texas Tech | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
10* WEST VIRGINIA (BLOOD-BATH) Am I calling for an outright win? I am not. However, this one is going to be a complete "nail-biter" in my opinion. Yes, WVU has lost B2B games, but it was against some really stiff competition, falling 85-59 to Kansas and 77-68 to Baylor. Texas Tech enters complacent here after going 4-1 in its last 5 (with wins over Kansas, Baylor and Iowa in that span.) WVU averages 68.9 PPG, and it allows 63.6. Texas Tech averages 73.7 PPG, and it concedes 58.7. But as I say, I think that TT is going to get caught looking past the Mountaineers today to its much more high-profile contest at Kansas on Monday night! WVU won this game 82-71 as a 6.5-point dog last year. As I stated above, no outright win this time, but expect another close one; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-19-22 | Georgia +22 v. Auburn | 60-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
8* GEORGIA (ROUT) Am I suggesting to play the Georgia Bulldogs on the money line here? Of course not. But I definitely think this is far too many points for Auburn to be giving up here. The Bulldogs will be super hungry after starting league play 0-6. Most recently it was a 73-66 loss to Vanderbilt. Auburn is 16-1 and it's coming off an 80-71 win over Ole Miss. Clearly, Auburn is the better team here, but with Kentucky coming to town this weekend, I say the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half. It's a perfect set of off court circumstances working in favor of Georgia today. Also note that the Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after 2 or more SU/ATS losses in a row; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-19-22 | Colgate v. Bucknell +10.5 | Top | 75-56 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* BUCKNELL (MAULING) Bucknell is eager to stop an extended losing streak, and Colgate stands in its way. Colgate is the defending Patriot League champion, but it's had plenty of issues this season as well. The Bison have indeed dropped seven straight after a 63-55 setback at American most recently. On November 20th Colgate would post an amazing 100-85 win over Syracuse, but it would then go on to lose eight of its next nine games. It's since bounced back with wins over Army and Navy. Bucknell though has won its last 5 home games against Colgate, including a 71-70 nail-biter in the last matchup at Sojka Pavilion in 2020. Bucknell is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the +9.5 to +11.5 points range as well. No outright here, but MUCH closer than expected; grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-18-22 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
10* NORTHWESTERN (BIG TEN GOM). After 6 straight wins, I say that Wisconsin takes a step back here mentally finally against this hungry and tough Northwestern home side. The Badgers enter off a 78-68 win over Ohio State, while Northwestern is off a 64-62 win over Michigan State as 9.5-point underdogs. Wisconsin is led by Brad Davison. It averages 72. points per game, while allowing 65.1. The Wildcats will be hungry here though, as they lost 4 in a row previous to their most recent win. Northwestern averages 76.8 PPG, while allowing 68.3. The Badgers aren't a high-scoring team. I say the "wheels on the bus" finally fall off here. Look for NORTHWESTERN to build off its latest performance and to find a way to deliver here at home as well! AAA Sports |
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01-15-22 | Florida International +7.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 39-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* FIU (BLOWOUT) Both teams are 10-6 SU. FIU is just 5-8-1 ATS, while MTSU is 10-2-2 ATS. I think these lop-sided trends start correcting themselves here though. FIU is off eight straight ATS losses, which is definitely significant to note as the Golden Panthers are still 14-7 ATS in their last 21 after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. Most recently it was an 84-56 setback to Auburn. That's also noteworthy, as FIU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a SU/ATS loss of 25 or more points. FIU plays with revenge here as well after a 67-56 loss to the Blue Raiders as 4-point favorites last year. MTSU has broken a two-game slide with B2B SU/ATS wins/covers, but note that it's just 1-6 ATS in its last seven off a SU/ATS victory in which it held its opponent to 59 or fewer points in. Probably no outright, but definitely right down to the wire; so grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-14-22 | Michigan +10 v. Illinois | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* MICHIGAN (BLOWOUT) The Wolverines will be highly motivated here after their 75-67 loss to Rutgers. Overall they average 72.8 PPG, while allowing 66.8. The Illini average 80.8 PPG, while allowing 65.0. Hunter Dickinson averages 16.1 points per game for the Wolverines. Kofi Cockburn averages 22.0 for the Illini. With 13-2 Purdue coming to town on Monday, I expect Illinois to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Listen, I'm not calling for an outright win or anything like that at all, but expect Michigan to bounce back, fight hard and to keep this one close; grab all those points! AAA Sports |
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01-13-22 | Northern Kentucky +3.5 v. Youngstown State | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10* NKU (MAULING) I look for the hungry 5-8 NKU Norse to give the 9-7 Youngstown Penguins a run for their money today! Both teams have been terrible of late, losing four of their last five. Each plays at a similar pace and their offensive and defensive numbers are also very comparable. However one thing to take note of here, is that NKU is actually 15th in the country in offensive rebounding, while the Penguins are 84th. These second-chance opportunities are going to be the difference-maker in this one. If history is any precedence, then NKU has to LOVING its chances here, as note that it has in fact won 8 of the last 10 matchups in this series. Outright victory?! With a spread like this, clearly that's a possibility. But all that said, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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01-11-22 | Toledo v. Miami-OH +1 | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
8* PLAY on Miami Ohio This the Redhawks first conference home game and they play with "double revenge" after dropping both contests against the Rockets last season. Toledo is 11-4, most recently beating NIU by a score of 94-63. But Miami Ohio is out to take out its frustrations as well after an OT loss against Bowling where it led by 9 at half-time. If history is any precedence though, then the RedHawks have to be loving their chances today as they're 42-20 all time at Oxford in this series. Look for Miami Ohio to keep the foot on the gas in the second half and to find a way to deliver on Tuesday! AAA Sports |
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01-10-22 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro +3 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* UNC Greensboro (GAME OF WEEK) This is a makeup game for one that was postponed on January 1st. This is UNCG's third game in five days and I believe the schedule actually benefits the home side. UNCG is off a 72-56 road win at VMI on Saturday, led by 18 points and 6 boards from Kobe Langley. Wofford is off a 68-57 road win at ETSU, led by 22 points from BJ Mack. UNCG is 5-1 at home this year though and it's held its last three opponents to under 60 points. This is an evenly matched contest, and in scenario's like that, I LOVE grabbing as many points as I can. And that's the play here, grab the points on UNCG! AAA Sports |
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01-09-22 | Northeastern +7.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
10* CAA GOY on Northeastern Northeastern is the hungrier "dog" in this fight. It comes in off 3 straight losses. Towson has had two cancelations of late, as well as conference loss to Drexel on Monday. Northeastern comes in rested after a week off. Most recently the Huskies fell 71-70 to William and Mary on New Year's Eve. Five players average double digits in scoring for Northeastern. Towson fell 65-61 in Drexel in its most recent outing, but it's still 9-5 overall. Towson has four double-digit scorers. Both teams are dealing with serious COVID issues, but Northeastern will be the healthier of the two now. Look for the much more determined visiting side to fight tooth and nail until the end. Grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-08-22 | The Citadel +14.5 v. Chattanooga | Top | 67-85 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
THE CITADEL (10* SOUTHERN GAME OF YEAR). These teams split their season series last year, with each side winning on its home floor. Chattanooga will continue that trend today, as I am NOT calling for an outright upset here. That said, this is WAY too many points to be giving up in my opinion. Chattanooga is 12-3, most recently holding on for a 75-67 win over Wofford on Wednesday. Malachi Smith leads three players in double figures at 20.4 points per game. The Citadel average 82.6 points per game though, while the Mocs average 77.9. The difference is on the defensive end, but I expect the Bulldogs' up-tempo play to keep them in this one late. As I stated off the top, no outright victory for the visiting side here, but we can absolutely expect it to make it interesting! AAA Sports |
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01-07-22 | Xavier v. Butler +5.5 | 87-72 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
8* SLAM-DUNK on Butler. Xavier is 1-1 in league play, most recently coming in off a road loss at Villanova. Butler is also 1-1 in Big East action after falling to Seton Hall at home. Xavier comes to town off a 17-day layoff. In the loss to Villanova, Xavier actually held an 8-point half-time lead. Dwon Odom had 13 points. The Musketeers are 11-2, but I say that rest leads to rust tonight. The Bulldogs have had two games postponed due to COVID this year. In their last game they looked a bit rusty themselves, falling 71-56 to No. 24 Seton Hall. Butler has a big OT win over Oklahoma this year and I say that "home court" is something that can't be overlooked as a major advantage for the Bulldogs here. Expect the home side to control the pace and to grind out a solid ATS cover here! AAA Sports |
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01-07-22 | Columbia +17.5 v. Princeton | Top | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
10* COLUMBIA (IVY LEAGUE GAME OF YEAR). Columbia will be motivated to get into the winners circle today. It's just 3-9 following its 79-69 loss to Sacred Heart ont he 13th of Decemer. It's following two games were postponed, and in my opinion, "rest" is NOT going to lead to "rust" today. In fact, I beleieve the extra time off will benefit the Lions here in the second half of the season. Liam Murphy had 20 points in the loss to Sacred Heart. Columbia averages 67.8 PPG, while Princeton averages 82.1. The Tigers are coming off a 100-59 rout of Kean to move to 10-3. This is the opener of Princeton's Ivy League schedule though and I think it'll have a much tighter fight than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Tigers win this game, but Columbia gets the comfortable cover! AAA Sports |
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01-06-22 | Sam Houston State +3.5 v. Tarleton St | Top | 64-75 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Sam Houston State (WESTERN ATHLETIC GAME OF YEAR). The Sam Houston State Bearkats are 7-8, while the Tarleton State Texans are 6-9. While both teams started out slowly, each has looked better of late. The Bearkats have won three in a row, while the Texans have won five of their last seven. Sam Houston State averages 73.5 PPG, while allowing 67.1. Tarleton State averages only 63.2 PPG, while allowing 63.4. The Bearkats on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, while the Texans are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -5.5-points range. Sam Houston State is heating up and in a contest that I see being decided in the waning moments, I'll gladly grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-05-22 | Gardner-Webb v. Charleston Southern +9.5 | 88-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
8* Charleston Southern (DESTRUCTION. I think the 6-7 Gardner-Webb Bulldogs will have their hands full today with the 3-9 Charleston Southern Buccaneers. The Bulldogs average 73 PPG, while allowing 65.9. D’Maurian Williams is averaging 14.2 points and two assists. The Bucs average 72.9 PPG, while allowing 80.3. Tahlik Chavez is averaging 10.2 points and two assists, while Kalib Clinton is averaging 9.8 points and 4.9 rebounds. Yes, Gardner-Webb is the better team in this fight, but not by this many points on the road. I look for the hungry home dog to fight tooth and nail here in this "winnable" game. Grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-04-22 | Providence v. Marquette +2.5 | Top | 56-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* Marquette (BIG EAST GAME OF YEAR) Providence is 13-1 overall. Its only loss was against Virginia at a neutral site. Marquette is 8-6 and it comes in starving for a win today after four straight losses. Five of the Golden Eagles' last six games though have come against Top 50 teams. The Friars have so far exceeded expectations and now they hit the most difficult part of their schedule. Overall the Friars average 69.8 points per game while allowing 61.1. The Golden Eagles are ranked 67th in defensive efficiency rating and they are ranked 39th overall as far as pace is concerned. I say regression is imminent for Providence. Marquette comes in focused here and as the hungrier team. Finally, note that the Golden Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a divisional home dog in the +1.5 to +3.5-points range. The outright is possible, but grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-02-22 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +10 | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska. The Buckeyes are 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS. Ohio State comes to Nebraska off a 73-55 win over Wisconsin as a 5-point favorite. The issue here for Ohio State is that its last three games have been canceled due to COVID-related issues. I say that "rest" leads to "rust." Nebraska on the other hand is 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS. Nebraska can't afford to look past anyone. It broke a five-game slide last time out in a relatively simple 88-74 victory over Kennesaw State. Ohio State is 48th in offensive efficiency and it allows just 67.3 PPG. Nebraska on the other hand is ranked 267th offensively and 267th defensively. On paper, the Huskers are overmatched, but this is a great "situational" play here. And it's strong from a trend standpoint as well, as Ohio State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine when playing with two or more weeks of rest between contests. No outright, but VERY tight in the end! AAA Sports |
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12-30-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. UCF | Top | 71-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN With four losses on the season, Michigan has tumbled out of the rankings. But we don’t think it’ll be long until the Wolverines find themselves back in the Top 25. The last time they played, it was a 37-point win over Southern Utah. Not every game is going to be that easy, but tonight’s contest at UCF should be another comfortable victory where Michigan covers the spread. Juwan Howard’s team destroyed UCF last year in Ann Arbor, winning 80-58 as 13-point favorites. They don’t even need to win by half that margin tonight. UCF seems to be getting a bit too much credit for a four-game win streak that hasn’t included any tough matchups. A game at Temple two weeks ago was the only real challenge of sorts. The Golden Knights were blown out by their toughest opponent so far, Auburn, who beat them 85-68 back on Dec 1. Michigan is the toughest team UCF will have faced (besides Auburn) thus far. This is the smallest spread for any Michigan game in 2021. They’ve been favored in every game. It’s been an underachieving start to the season for the Wolverines, but tonight they assert themselves in a major way. They are 10-3 ATS L13 as road favorites while UCF has failed to cover the last four times it has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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12-29-21 | Tennessee v. Alabama -2.5 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Tennessee is coming off a very impressive win over Arizona last week, so they’ve got to be feeling pretty good about themselves heading into the SEC opener at Alabama. But the Crimson Tide are ranked in the Top 20 as well. It’s been a bit of a shaky December in Tuscaloosa with the Tide losing two of its last three games, including one-point setback to Davidson in their last game. But this is an Alabama team that has beaten both Gonzaga and Houston this year. You probably aren’t going to find a team that has a better two wins on its resume. The Crimson Tide’s recent issues on the defensive end - they’ve given up 79 or more points in four of the last five games - should only serve as motivation for tonight’s game. Teams are still only shooting 43.1% against the Tide for the year and 39.3% here in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have been great at defending the three-point line as well. At home, they allow just 26.3% of attempts to be made from behind the arc. Tennessee has played just one true road game so far and that was at Colorado. The Volunteers have not shot the ball well outside of Knoxville as they were held to 53 and 52 points in neutral court losses to Villanova and Texas Tech. This is a good spot to jump on Bama. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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12-28-21 | Yale +13 v. St. Mary's | Top | 60-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on YALE It’s been two weeks since Yale took the court. The favorites to win the Ivy League this year have suffered through a disappointing start to 2021-22, going just 6-7 in their first 13 games. They lost at home to Monmouth two weeks ago and you can bet the Bulldogs have been seething ever since. Tonight, they find themselves on the opposite side of the country, playing St. Mary’s, who is 11-3 SU and gearing up for conference play. The Gaels will host 12-1 San Francisco on New Year’s Day and there’s a good chance that the players & coaches might be more focused on that game than they are this one. So laying double digits in this spot seems like a dicey proposition. We know that St. Mary’s is 8-0 at home and only gives up 55.9 points/game. But this is too many points vs. a good Yale team that will be motivated, trying to avoid a third straight loss. Play on YALE AAA |
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12-27-21 | Brown v. Syracuse -9.5 | Top | 62-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Syracuse will be looking to end a two-game losing streak when it welcomes Brown to the Carrier Dome on Monday. Those two losses for the Orange both came to old Big East rivals. First, it was Villanova and then it was Georgetown. It’s also been 16 days since Jim Boeheim’s team took the court. It’s been a 17-day layoff for Brown, who is coming off a five-point loss to Vermont. Before that, the Bears had won and covered four in a row, though none of the teams they beat were as good as Syracuse. The key here is who will get off to a better start? Rust could certainly be a factor for both teams. We believe the home side is better equipped to handle the situation. Something we should mention from the loss to Georgetown is that the Orange led by 10 at halftime. Boeheim has five players on the roster, one of which is his son, averaging at least 12 points/game. Brown has only one player that averages that many. The Orange have been scoring a lot at home thus far and are just too potent offensively for their Ivy League opposition. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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12-22-21 | Illinois -13.5 v. Missouri | Top | 88-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 10* on ILLINOIS This game takes place in St. Louis and is known as the “Braggin Rights Game.” Last year, in the midst of the pandemic, a decision was made to “flip a coin” for home court advantage. Missouri won the coin toss and then the game, 81-78 as a 3.5 point underdog. You can bet Illinois remembers that and will be out for revenge Wednesday night. This Fighting Illini team isn’t as strong as the one that earned a #1 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament. But they are a lot better than Missouri, who comes in at 6-5 with losses to the likes of Kansas City and Liberty. The Tigers also got blown out by 37 against Kansas earlier in the month. Illinois’ only loss this month came against an Arizona team that is among the very best in America. We’re a bit perplexed that the Illini aren’t in the Top 25. The revenge angle definitely matters here and we look for the Illini to make a big statement. It promises to be a dark day for Missouri athletics as we’re also fading the football team in the Armed Forces Bowl. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on 'NOVA Xavier takes an 11-1 record into Philly tonight. The Musketeers have won seven straight games and already pulled three upsets this year. They did not cover the spread in their last game, however. As 11-point favorites, Xavier could only beat Marquette 80-71. It’s much tougher opposition on Tuesday. We say that knowing full well that Villanova has lost two straight games, one to #1 Baylor and the other to Creighton. Both those losses were on the road though. Poor shooting was the culprit in each loss. Nova made only 22.2% of its field goal attempts when they faced Baylor. They were “up” to 33.3% vs. Creighton. From three-point range, they went a combined 10 of 50 in the two games. At home, that’s not going to happen. The Wildcats have averaged 90.7 points in their three previous home games. Xavier has lost seven in a row here and failed to cover the spread in all seven losses. With four losses already on this season’s resume, Nova can’t afford another. Look for a strong effort at both ends tonight. Lay it! Play on VILLANOVA AAA |
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12-20-21 | Western Carolina v. Georgia -10 | Top | 79-85 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UGA Georgia has had their problems recently, but should roll tonight, at home vs. Western Carolina. The Bulldogs are looking to put an 80-67 loss to George Mason behind them. The loss, which took place Saturday, was here in Athens and the ‘Dawgs were 2.5 point favorites. Falling into a 14-0 hole to start the game was the “death knell” as UGA was playing for the first time in 11 days and first time since losing a second starter to a season-ending injury. We understand the current “state of the program” may not sound great in Athens, but this Western Carolina team that’s paying a visit on Monday is pretty bad. The Catamounts have not played in over a week. Their last game was a one-point loss to UNC-Asheville. Georgia still did a good job on the offensive glass vs. George Mason, but somehow came away with only seven second chance points. Their size advantage in this matchup should result in a lot more inside scoring, whether it’s on first or second chance opportunities. Western Carolina relies heavily on the three, but Georgia’s size will make them struggle in that area tonight. The Bulldogs beat Memphis here earlier this month. There’s no reason to think they can’t blow out this Western Carolina team. Play on GEORGIA AAA |
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12-16-21 | Jackson State v. Drake -15 | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DRAKE Drake looks to cover the spread for the first time since 11/14! The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, although they’ve won four of them straight up. The level of competition has been stronger than what they’ll face here, a Jackson State team that’s 2-8 and has been to less than 40 points in two different games. The schedule has been murderous so far for Jackson State as they have played nothing but true road games. This is the 11th in a row to start the year as well as the third in the last five days. The Tigers have to be running out gas at this point. They’ve done a decent job of covering the spread (7-3 ATS), but at some point a team has nothing left to give. That’s what we expect the case will be tonight for the road team. Jackson State only averages 56.3 points/game. Drake is averaging 81.3 points/game at home and at some point the Bulldogs HAVE to cover the spread. Why not tonight? Play on DRAKE AAA |
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12-14-21 | Northwestern State v. LSU -34.5 | Top | 49-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU LSU is still undefeated and should win in a romp tonight. Now you probably already knew that by looking at this pointspread. It is quite high. But Northwestern State truly has zero shot at being competitive in Baton Rouge. The Demons are 2-8, both wins coming in non-lined games. They beat Dallas Christian Saturday. But not all the news was good. A flu bug has made its way through the Northwestern State locker room, affecting both players and coaches. Even at full strength, Northwestern State could not compete here. With players out, tonight’s game should get ugly in a hurry. There have been three games this season that the Demons have lost by 30 or more points. One was to Houston, the only top 15 team they’ve faced. LSU isn’t in the top 15, but probably should be as they’re off to their best start in over 20 years at 9-0. The Tigers’ six home wins have been by more than 30 points/game and they’ve covered the spread every time. They should mirror Houston’s 41 point win over Northwestern State and continue their climb up the rankings. Play on LSU AAA |
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12-13-21 | Cal Poly v. Portland -4.5 | Top | 77-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Portland is looking to bounce back from an upset loss at the hands of VMI ten days ago. The Pilots were five point favorites but lost to the Keydets 90-82. Before that, they had won seven of eight with the only loss coming by three to Montana State. They’d also covered five straight going into the VMI matchup. We like the home team here because they are well rested while visiting Cal Poly is playing a second road game in three days. Cal Poly was able to shoot 54.5% from three in its 61-58 upset over Portland State on Sunday. The Mustangs went into that game as 3.5 point underdogs. It was their second close game in a row after losing by one at San Diego on December 5th. This will be CP’s fourth consecutive road game to start the month. The win at Portland State on Saturday was the first win on the trip. Don’t see them winning two in a row as the three-point shooting from the last game can’t be matched (CP shooting only 30% from three for the year) and Portland’s offense (85.2 points/game) is just too much. CP has scored more than 61 only twice against Division I opponents this season. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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12-11-21 | Penn State v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Fresh off handing Minnesota its first loss, Michigan State returns to East Lansing to play host Penn State on Saturday. The Spartans come in at 8-2. They were seven-point favorites on Wednesday, despite the fact their opponents were undefeated. Consider this a “lesson learned” as we made the mistake of fading Sparty at Minnesota. Tom Izzo's team came out red hot and took a 37-24 lead into halftime. Penn State is not nearly as strong as the Golden Gophers, so with this game being a home game, expect MSU to roll. Penn State’s only other true road game this year resulted in a 25-point loss at UMass. Since then, they are just 4-3. The Nittany Lions lost the Big 10 opener 76-64 to Ohio State before bouncing back with an easy win over Wagner earlier this week. This is a rivalry that Michigan State has dominated with wins in 39 of the 48 all-time meetings. The Spartans already have four wins over Top 40 teams and are 4th in the country in defensive efficiency. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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12-10-21 | DePaul v. Louisville -7.5 | Top | 62-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on L'ville DePaul is off to a pretty impressive 7-1 start. The Blue Demons’ one loss came against Loyola Chicago and that was by only four points. Following that first loss, they rebounded with an impressive 20-point win over Duquesne earlier this week. The Blue Demons’ ATS record matches their SU record as the one time they failed to cover was in an 84-80 win over Western Illinois where they were 9.5 point favorites. Tonight they are underdogs for just the third time this season. While it may seem tempting to take DePaul plus the points in this situation, they are outclassed playing at Louisville. The Cardinals have dominated the head to head series with the Blue Demons, winning 21 of the last 23 meetings. They’re 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS against them as the home team. L’ville has two losses but has also played a much more challenging schedule than DePaul has. In their last game, the Cardinals went to NC State and won the ACC opener. They also hold wins over Mississippi State and Maryland in tournament play. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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12-09-21 | Iowa -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA We’ve got an unranked team laying points on the road to a Top 25 opponent that’s also undefeated. That’s quite the statement by the linesmakers. And we agree that Iowa is the better side in this Thursday night matchup. Give Iowa State credit for being 8-0, especially since they’ve been underdogs in three of the previous four games. They pulled upsets over Xavier, Memphis and Creighton. But none of those teams are as strong as the Hawkeyes, who are seeking to end a two-game losing streak tonight. Iowa was 7-0 before facing Purdue, who is now the top ranked team in the country. That was a two-point game in the final three minutes. Then it was a four-point loss to Illinois on Monday. Both those Big 10 opponents are much stronger than Iowa State. Not to be disrespectful to the Cyclones, but the only reason they are ranked is because they are undefeated. They’ve yet to face a team as good as Iowa. This is going to be their first loss of the season and we will lay the points. Play on IOWA AAA |
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12-09-21 | Purdue -12 v. Rutgers | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PURDUE For the first time in program history, Purdue will take the court as the #1 ranked team in the country. That obviously puts the proverbial “bulls-eye” on the Boilermakers’ back, but expect THEM to be the more motivated group on Thursday night as they travel to Piscataway to face Rutgers. Not only does Purdue want to prove that it deserves it’s #1 ranking, but they’ve surprisingly lost the last three times they’ve taken on the Scarlet Knights. Coach Matt Painter has made sure to remind his team of the three-game losing streak. Rutgers is just simply no match for a motivated Purdue team that is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency, averaging 90.5 points/game. The Scarlet Knights just lost to Illinois by 35, a game where they were dominated on the boards. Being only 4-4 has to be a major disappointment to coach Steve Pikiell as Rutgers was the favorite in every game but the one at Illinois. Star guard Baker is still dealing with a hamstring injury and a flu bug has hit the team as well. Purdue should roll here. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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12-08-21 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +7 | Top | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINN There are still 12 undefeated teams left in College Basketball. That number is likely to decrease very soon. Five of those 12 unbeatens are in action tonight, two (Arizona & Wyoming) against one another. San Francisco (9-0) is favored, but you’ve also got Weber State (8-0) and Minnesota (7-0) taking the court as underdogs. While this game vs. Michigan State may seem like a logical end point for Minnesota’s unbeaten start, what we are seeing here is a great opportunity to grab the points. At home, the Golden Gophers shouldn’t be getting this many points from a Michigan State team that has two losses. Now those losses were to Kansas and Baylor, so you can’t really fault Sparty for not being unbeaten like Minnesota still is. But the Gophers did just win two tough road games against Pitt and Mississippi State. They were 11.5 point dogs at Miss State and led by as much as 14 points. Being back home - where they are giving up just 49.7 points/game - is huge for this team. Michigan State lost by 25 points here last season. Take the points with Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-07-21 | Texas Tech v. Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE It’s the Big 12 vs. the SEC on Tuesday as #13 Tennessee takes Texas Tech as part of the “Jimmy V Classic” in New York City. We’re surprised that this line is so low, considering that the Vols are ranked. Also, Texas Tech is coming off its first loss of the season, 72-68 at Providence, in what was the Red Raiders first true road game. That was six days ago. Tennessee played over the weekend as they went to Colorado and won 69-54 as six-point favorites. The Vols only loss so far was to #6 Villanova. All six of their wins have been by double digits. We figure this one will be as well. Tennessee is third in the country in defensive efficiency right now and just held Colorado to 34.5% shooting on Saturday. Texas Tech does force a lot of turnovers, but also turns it over a lot themselves. Whereas the Vols have two quality wins already (North Carolina, Colorado), the Red Raiders have nothing of the sort. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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12-05-21 | Arizona -11 v. Oregon State | Top | 90-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona is a strong team and should easily be able to defeat Pac 12 rival Oregon State by double digits. At 6-0, the Wildcats are one of 12 unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. They are one of the highest ranked as well with #4 Baylor and #10 Arkansas the only undefeated teams above them in the top 25. The Wildcats haven’t just been winning either. They’ve been blowing out every opponent. Their six wins have been by an average of 33.8 points/game. There was one close game, a four-win over Wichita State, but all others have been by at least 18 points. The last time ‘Zona was on the court, they blew out Sacramento State 105-59 as a 29-point favorite. In addition to being the conference opener, this will be the Wildcats' first true road game. They could not have asked for a better opponent as Oregon State has dropped seven in a row since opening the season with a 73-64 victory over Portland State. The Beavers have certainly had their share of close defeats - three by three points or less - but they also just lost by 12 at Cal on Thursday. Arizona has been off for a full week and played just one game in the last two weeks. They are rested and simply better. Last year’s trip here to Corvallis resulted in a 34-point win. The home team has no chance here. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-01-21 | Michigan v. North Carolina +2 | Top | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on N CAROLINA At one time, Michigan was ranked as high as #4 in the country. But Juwan Howard’s team has already lost twice (to Seton Hall and Arizona) and hardly looked impressive as 21-point favorites last week in a 64-54 win over Tarleton State. Tonight finds the Wolverines playing their first “true” road game of the year and it’s in Chapel Hill, part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. So far the Big 10 has largely dominated this event, taking six of the eight head to head matchups, including Ohio State beating #1 Duke last night. North Carolina is 0-6 ATS coming into this game, tying them with William & Mary for the most ATS losses without a win this season. But getting this game at home is pretty huge for the Tar Heels. Michigan is down to #24 in the rankings and turns the ball over too much, even when facing bad teams. They turned it over 20 times vs. Prairie View A&M and 21 times vs. Tarleton State. If UNC, who comes in averaging 83.2 points/game, can be disruptive enough at the defensive end, then they will pull the “upset.” The Tar Heels are off their best defensive effort of the season as they held UNC Asheville to 53 points on 26.5% shooting a week ago. Take the points. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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11-29-21 | Tarleton St v. Gonzaga -30.5 | Top | 55-64 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GONZAGA Gonzaga just suffered what was only their second loss since the start of LAST season. Duke beat them 84-81 in Las Vegas Friday night. Of course, the only other Gonzaga loss in the last two years came in April’s National Championship Game against Baylor. They obviously did not get a chance to immediately bounce back from that one. But they can bounce back here. Considering who the opponent is, this could get ugly in a hurry. Tarleton State isn’t any good to begin with and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time as far as we’re concerned. The last four times Gonzaga has been off a loss, they have covered the spread in the next game. Tarleton State has yet to even beat a Division I opponent this season (0-5). The Texans will have no answers here for a team that beat UCLA by 20 last week. Gonzaga already has three wins by 34 or more points this year. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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11-26-21 | Baylor -5.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 75-58 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BAYLOR This is the Final in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament with #6 Baylor taking on Michigan State. Baylor was able to overcome a bit of a sloppy first half (13 turnovers) yesterday and beat VCU 69-61, just barely covering the 5.5 point spread. The Bears are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss came as 33 point favorites in the opening game. The opponent here is Michigan State, who upset UConn 64-60 (as 2.5 point dogs) on Thursday, thanks to scoring the game’s final nine points. The Spartans are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. The only team they lost to was Kansas (first game) and they also failed to cover Wednesday vs. Loyola Chicago. This is the third game in three days for both Baylor and Michigan State. Sparty’s two games have been decided by a total of six points. After two close calls like that, we’re just not sure they’ll have enough left in the tank to survive a vastly superior opponent. Baylor has won 31 straight non-conference games. Yesterday was probably the Bears’ weakest performance to date and they still won fairly comfortably. MSU is still only 2-8-1 ATS its last 11 neutral site games. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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11-24-21 | California Baptist v. Texas -22 | Top | 44-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Texas is 3-1 and ranked #8 in the country. That one loss came to Gonzaga, so no one is going to fault them for that. Tonight the Longhorns host an undefeated Cal Baptist team that is playing on the road for the first time in 2021. The Lancers’ previous five games - against San Francisco St, Miss Valley, Jackson St, San Jose St and Northern Colorado have simply not adequately prepared them for what’s in store here. Texas is giving up just 47.3 points/game when not facing Gonzaga this year. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, but have an efficient offense that is 16th in points per possession. On Saturday against San Jose State, the ‘Horns led by 18 just nine minutes into the game and by 30 at halftime. They ended up winning by 34 and held SJSU to 31.9 percent shooting from the floor. Even more impressive is that Texas forced 27 turnovers and had a season-high 16 steals. At the same time, they connected at just over 51% at the offensive end and had 36 points in the paint. The home team is simply going to overwhelm the opposition in this one. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-22-21 | Butler v. Houston -9 | Top | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON This is a first round matchup in the Maui Invitational (which is being played in Las Vegas). We’ve got Butler facing Houston, two programs that have been to Final Fours. Of course, it’s been a decade since Butler advanced that far. Houston was in the Final Four last year and bowed out to eventual National Champion Baylor in the Semifinal. The Cougars are ranked #15 in the poll right now and is 3-0. They just wasted Virginia 67-47 in their last game, which was six days ago. Butler lost the following day (Wednesday), 73-52 to Michigan State, and is now 3-1 on the year. Our view is that Butler just isn’t in Houston’s class. Houston leads all AAC teams with 10.3 three pointers made per game. Defensively, the Cougars are just as impressive. They held Virginia to 34.9% shooting and forced 17 turnovers. The game was never close as UH jumped out to an early 14-2 lead and was up 13 at halftime. They led by double digits the entire second half. As for Butler, the loss to Michigan State was their largest margin of defeat at home in 29 years. They shot 28.6% and had only eight assists. The size of the Spartans was clearly an issue and it should be the same thing here with Houston. This is a bad matchup at a bad time for Butler. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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11-18-21 | Ohio State -2 v. Xavier | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO ST In-state rivals play Wednesday in Cincinnati as Xavier hosts #17 Ohio State. As short home underdogs, the Musketeers are probably thinking upset here, but we like the Buckeyes to handle their business in their first “real” test of the 2021-22 season. So far OSU has gone through Akron, Niagara and Bowling Green. Their margins of victory have continued to grow, culminating in a 31-point triumph over BG on Monday. Ten players scored for the Buckeyes in that win, five finishing in double digits. The bench scored 39 points and the team shot over 50%. It was their best game to date. Xavier is 2-0 with wins over Niagara and Kent State. The Musketeers could only beat Niagara by three while OSU beat them by 10. While that’s just one common opponent, you’ve also got the fact that OSU is 9-1 ATS in its previous 10 road games. Xavier hasn’t shot the ball well so far and figures to get outworked on the glass. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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11-17-21 | Boston College v. Rhode Island -5 | Top | 49-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This a 10* on RHODE ISLAND Rhode Island has been an 8.5-point favorite for both of their games thus far. They covered the spread each time, beating Boston U 71-62 and then Bryant 83-64. While that first game ended up being relatively close, at least as far as the pointspread was concerned, the Rams led the whole way and were never really threatened. It was a more complete performance in the second game with them blowing out Bryant in the second half. Over the last 15 minutes of the game, URI went on a 37-18 run. Boston College comes in at 3-0 and also covered the number in its first two games. But then they failed as 10-point favorites against Fairfield, winning only 72-64. This is the Eagles first time playing on the road. They are 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points the last two years. Rhode Island has won 20 of its previous 26 home games. Somebody is going to lose for the first time and we believe it will be BC as Rhode Island’s defense is #1 in the nation right now, holding teams to 30.6% shooting! Play on RHODE ISLAND AAA |
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11-16-21 | Creighton +3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CREIGHTON In-state rivals get set for their annual meeting as Creighton makes the drive from Omaha to Lincoln to take on Nebraska. Obviously, we know which school has more of a “national presence.” But when it comes to basketball, Creighton has taken over the Cornhusker State. While they trailed at halftime in both games, the Bluejays do enter this game at 2-0 on the young season. Nebraska is 1-1 and lucky not to be 0-2. After losing at home to Western Illinois last week, the ‘Huskers were down 10 early to Sam Houston State on Friday. That was also a home game. Creighton and Nebraska are a combined 0-4 ATS so far but the Bluejays have not been underdogs previous to this. The defense effort in their last game (just 44 points allowed) was the best by any Creighton team in eight seasons, at least against a D-I opponent. These teams played in Omaha last year and Creighton won by 24. Not enough has changed in a year to justify Nebraska being favored here. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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11-13-21 | Dartmouth v. Georgetown -16 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on G'town This is Georgetown’s first game. In case you’d forgotten, the Hoyas made an incredible run to the NCAA Tournament last March by winning the Big East Tournament as an 8-seed. They won four games in four days. However, it ended up being a short stay in the Big Dance as G’town was bounced in the opening round by Colorado, 96-73. A lot of the top talent from that team is now gone, but we still expect the Hoyas to handle their business here against Dartmouth. The Big Green have already played a game this season and it was a 72-57 loss to Boston College. They were never really in it as the halftime score was 42-19. Dartmouth shot just 37.5% overall from the field and 20.7% from behind the arc. As was the case with Iowa yesterday, we don’t think the dropoff with Georgetown will be quite as severe as the oddsmakers seem to. This should be a very easy opening game for the more talented side. Dartmouth hasn’t finished with a winning record in over 20 years. Georgetown is 7-0 ATS L7 home games against teams with a losing road record. Play on GEORGETOWN AAA |
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11-12-21 | UMKC v. Iowa -20 | Top | 57-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA UMKC (Kansas City) will really be up against it on Friday as they travel to Iowa City to face the heavily favored Hawkeyes. This is already the second game against a Big 10 team for UMKC. They lost to Minnesota by a score of 71-56 on Tuesday. In that game, the Roos did not cover the spread as they were only 6.5 point underdogs. Oddsmakers like their chances here even less and so do we. Iowa is not the same team they were last year (no Luke Garza) but should certainly “handle its business” in this game. The Hawkeyes scored 106 points in the season opener vs. Longwood, so there’s not going to be that big of a dropoff at the offensive end. Iowa did cover the number vs. Longwood, so they are now 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games. This should be another big win for them as they look to start the season strong. Play on IOWA AAA |
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11-10-21 | Robert Morris v. UCF -18 | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF This is the first ever meeting between Robert Morris and UCF. The home team is a big favorite and justifiably so. RMU had a tough maiden year in the Horizon League last season. They won only four games total and finished with their worst overall record in 11 years. Improving this season will be tough, at least early on, as the team’s best player from last year (AJ Bramah) transferred to Nevada. Bramah averaged 21 points and 10 rebounds for the Colonials. There are four new starters overall as the second leading scorer from last year is also gone. RMU ranked 324th in points allowed in 2020-21 so it’s not just the offensive end where they will struggle in this game. Central Florida returns most of its roster and should be healthier than they were a year ago when injuries were a problem. RMU has covered only one of the last six times it’s been a road underdog of 18.5 to 24 points. Lay it! Play on UCF AAA |
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11-09-21 | Siena v. St Bonaventure -19.5 | Top | 47-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. BONAVENTURE St. Bonaventure opens its season at home against Sienna. The Bonnies won the Atlantic 10 last season with an 11-4 record in conference play and were 16-5 overall. They won the Conference Tournament to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. There they would lose in the first round to LSU 76-61. This team has all the ingredients not just to get back to the NCAA Tournament, but to be even better in 2022. The Bonnies have five seniors on the roster including two All-Conference selections in Lofton and Osunniyi. They are 22-7-2 against the spread in their previous 31 home games. While it's a somewhat sizable number tonight, we think they cover. Siena did share the regular season MAAC championship last year, but doesn’t look as strong coming into the new season. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE AAA |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR We’ve ridden Baylor each of the last three rounds. They were our top Sweet 16 side (beat Villanova 62-51 as 7.5-point favorites), our top Elite 8 side (beat Arkansas 81-72 as 7.5-point favorites), then were our *10* NCAA GAME OF THE YEAR when they walloped Houston 78-59 (as 5-point favorites) in Saturday’s Final Four. Now the Bears are underdogs for the first time all season as they play undefeated Gonzaga for the National Championship. We saw Saturday that the Zags are not infallible. While UCLA may not have been your “normal 11-seed,” Gonzaga needed OT and an all-time buzzer beater to get by. This despite shooting 58.7% for the game. Baylor has basically led start to finish in four of their five tournament games (‘Nova was the exception to that). They’ve lost only two games this season and both came shortly after a three-week pause due to COVID-19. They are over that now. The five tournament wins have been by an average of 15.2 points/game. While the Bears haven’t been underdogs in any game in 2020-21, they are 16-6 ATS L22 times in that role. Can they win this game? Absolutely. So we’ll take the points as Baylor is #1 in the country in three-point shooting and should also have their way inside the paint. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Houston did not defeat a single team seeded higher than 10th in its region. They faced 15-seed Cleveland State first, whom they destroyed, but have had close calls with Rutgers and Oregon State, who were seeded 10th and 12th respectively. In between they did easily beat 11-seed Syracuse. Still, that’s an amazingly easy run of opponents. Now they face Baylor, who has been considered the second best team in America most of this College Basketball season. Baylor has won all four NCAA Tournament games by at least nine points. They had a big lead on Arkansas in the Elite Eight. Really, the only close call was vs. Villanova. The Bears are a far more dynamic offensive team than anybody Houston has previously faced, not just in the Tournament but the whole season. The Cougars have faced just one top 30 team all year (Texas Tech) and that was back in November. The fact Baylor leads the country in three-point shooting percentage is key. With Houston, it’s a concern that they have not shot better than 39% in any of the last three games. Unlike when they faced those past opponents, it will take a good number of points for Houston to cover here. We don’t think they’re up to it. It seems destined that we’re headed for a Gonzaga vs. Baylor final and we will lay the points here with a team that has lost only two games all season, despite facing significantly better competition than Houston. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Two of the teams Arkansas has beaten to get here were seeded 14 or lower. That’s quite atypical for a team in the Elite 8. In fact, it’s happened only one other time in the Tournament’s history (Florida in 2013). Furthermore, the Razorbacks have won by the narrowest of margins the last two games, beating Texas Tech 68-66 and Oral Roberts 72-70. They trailed almost the whole way against Oral Roberts (a 15-seed) before Davonte Davis made the game-winner in the final three seconds. We anticipate the Hogs having lots of trouble here against a Baylor team that leads the country in three-point shooting. Arkansas was lucky that Oral Roberts uncharacteristically struggled from deep. Baylor has had the harder path to get here, yet has looked more impressive in wins over Wisconsin and Villanova. We used them as our top Sweet 16 selection and they rewarded us there. The Bears are the top three-point shooting team in the country, but were just 3 for 19 from behind the arc against ‘Nova. They should improve here as Arkansas is only 138th in 3-point defense. The last two teams Baylor faced liked to play at very slow tempos, very different from Arkansas, but the Bears still are averaging 72.3 points per game in the Tournament. Baylor is the better team here and should send Arkansas packing quite easily. The Razorbacks won’t have the rebounding edge they enjoyed vs. Oral Roberts. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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03-28-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU Nine Big Ten teams made the NCAA Tournament. Eight bowed out in the first two rounds. The only one to make the Sweet 16 is top seed Michigan, who will play 4-seed Florida State. The Seminoles have looked pretty good so far in their two games, shooting 52% overall while holding the opposition right around 33%.. They never trailed against UNC Greensboro and were only briefly behind Colorado (early in the first half). All season long, the ‘Noles have defended well, allowing a 39.3 overall FG% which includes 32.3% from three. Michigan is a top 20 offense in FG% and top 10 in efficiency, but they’ll be missing second leading scorer Isaiah Livers and that is a significant loss. It’s not as if FSU isn’t impressive at the offensive end in its own right. They score 78 points per game, which is more than the Wolverines average for the year. Michigan trailed much of the way against LSU, a team with size and length similar to Florida State. FSU is better than LSU. Michigan doesn’t force many turnovers and that’s how you beat the Seminoles. The loss of Livers will loom large. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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03-27-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Houston | Top | 46-62 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE The last six games have seen Syracuse go 5-1 and the only loss was by three. They are 6-0 ATS in those six games. Now they have a Sweet 16 appointment with Houston, a team on a nine-game win streak. But the Cougars almost didn’t get here as they barely got by Rutgers in the second round. Syracuse also won its Round of 32 game by only three points, but they were in better control throughout. Led by Buddy Boeheim (Jim’s son) averaging 28 points his last four games, the Orange offense has been lights out. Boeheim is shooting 60% those last four games and 55% from three-point range. In the NCAA Tournament, Syracuse has shot 55.3% and 51.9%. But their zone defense has been just as important to the success as unfamiliar opponents aren’t used to facing it. Expect Houston to struggle to make shots against the zone. They shot 37% against Rutgers and that’s why they were down nine with five minutes to go. In their last four wins, Syracuse has allowed the following field goal percentages: 33.9, 36.2, 35.8, 37.1. Tough to lose when your opponents aren’t shooting well. Syracuse at least covers and we give them a shot at winning as well. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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03-27-21 | Villanova v. Baylor -7.5 | Top | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Baylor seems to be over his hangover from a 3-week (COVID-19) layoff, no? The Bears have beaten Hartford and Wisconsin pretty handily to get here and that win over Wisconsin was especially impressive. They basically led the whole way and were up by 18 at one point. They’ve shot the three well in both games, turned it over just four times vs. the Badgers and have played great defense throughout (59 points/game allowed). Villanova has only had to beat a 12 and a 13-seed to get here. They’ve been much better than people thought they’d be, but don’t forget Colin Gillespie is out. Our guess is this is where they miss their star point guard. The fact that the Wildcats play a similar style on offense compared to Wisconsin means Baylor won’t have to change the gameplan much. It’s all about forcing the opponent into taking jump shots and turning the ball over. Given ‘Nova doesn’t have Gillespie, turnovers are likely to be an issue in this one. By the way, Baylor is the best three-point shooting team in the country. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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03-22-21 | USC v. Kansas +1.5 | Top | 85-51 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS Kansas is the higher seed, but an underdog to USC. We like the Jayhawks to cover (and thus almost certainly win) this second round battle. They scored 93 points against Eastern Washington, so it’s going to be much different here for USC than it was playing Drake, who shot only 19 percent in the second half Saturday. Going back to the beginning of February, Kansas has really been one of the best teams in the whole country. They’re 9-1 in the L10 games with the one loss coming by three points at Texas. We are really a bit shocked that they are the underdogs here. USC was lucky in the first round as they were playing a team coming off an exhausting win in the “First Four” just 48 hours earlier. Prior to defeating Drake, USC had just two wins over NCAA Tournament teams in its last 11 games and one of those was a giant comeback (vs UCLA) that they won by a single point. Kansas had four wins over NCAA Tournament teams during that same stretch, one of which was against top seeded Baylor. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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03-22-21 | Ohio +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 58-72 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Creighton was not particularly impressive in a 63-62 win over Cal Santa Barbara on Saturday. We faded them and got the cash as the Gauchos were 7.5 point underdogs. Really, the Bluejays never really threatened to cover the spread and we thought UCSB kind of threw the game away late. Now it’s a chance to take the points against Creighton again, this time with Ohio, an upset winner in the first round over defending National Champion Virginia. The Bobcats were able to win that game despite shooting only 7 of 23 from behind the arc. Save for an ugly home loss to Buffalo on Feb 27, Ohio has been excellent the last two months. They are 10-1 the last 11 games, both straight up and against the spread. They’ve got two quality players in Ben Vander Plas and Jason Preston. The Bobcats’ ATS record in neutral site games is 5-0 in 2021 and considering that Creighton’s last three games have produced two wins by a total of three points and a loss by 25, taking the points here is a no brainer. We give Ohio an excellent shot at winning this game straight up. Play on OHIO AAA |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts +8.5 v. Florida | Top | 81-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ORAL ROBERTS Florida grinded out an OT victory against Virginia Tech in the first round. We had them on the money line, so that was a positive result for us. Oral Roberts still being alive is something very few could have predicted as they stunned 2-seed Ohio State, also in overtime. While the Eagles improbable run very well could come to an end on Sunday, we like them plus the points. Florida has major injury issues. Tyree Appleby left the Va Tech game with a facial laceration. Omar Payne got himself suspended (by the team) for dishing out a flagrant elbow in the SEC Tournament. Both are questionable for this game. Note this is all in addition to the team already playing without Keyontae Johnson, who collapsed on the court early in the season. Oral Roberts has the nation’s leading scorer in Max Abmas, who averages 24.2 points/game. He went for 29 against Ohio State. Florida isn’t as strong as Ohio State, even when at their healthiest, which they’re not right now. Oral Roberts has covered five straight games and this is too many points. Play on ORAL ROBERTS AAA |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Texas -8.5 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS We don’t see Texas, a 3-seed, having any difficulty getting by Abilene Christian in the first round of the NCAA Tourney and are quite shocked that this is a single digit spread. The Longhorns are 5-0 the last five games - both straight up and against the spread. They won the Big 12 Tournament, getting by the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, both of whom were winners yesterday. Abilene Christian hasn’t beaten anyone, well outside of the Southland Conference. They did play both Texas Tech and Arkansas relatively tough back in December, but the spotlight shines brighter this time of year. Every game during Texas’ current win streak was either on the road or at a neutral site. That’s impressive. Yes, we’re well aware of the fact the Longhorns have gone 0-9 ATS their previous nine Tournament appearances, seven of those coming as a favorite. But knowledge of that streak should have the players plenty motivated heading into the nightcap on Saturday. Look for the ‘Horns to win by double digits. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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03-20-21 | Missouri v. Oklahoma -2 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 118 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA Oklahoma has not been good at the pay window for a while now. Boomer Sooner hasn’t covered a game since a 91-90 upset win in Morgantown (West Virginia) all the way back on February 13th. The ATS losing streak is now at seven, but we think the Sooners got a good first round draw here with Missouri, who also sputtered down the stretch. Mizzou went from being ranked to somewhat of an also-ran in the SEC by losing six of its last nine games straight up. Two of the three wins were by two and three points, so their record could be even worse. It is crazy to think that both of these teams were ranked in the top 10 at the same time a little over a month ago. OU is going to be without its second leading scorer Saturday. But we can’t discount a team that beat four Top 10 opponents this year, three of them consecutively, despite being short-handed at times. One of those Top 10 teams that they defeated was SEC Champion Alabama. Four of the Sooners’ last five losses came by five points or less, so if they had some better luck there they would have ended up with a much higher seed. We just don’t like Missouri (nothing personal!) and want to fade them. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS their L5 Tournament games. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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03-20-21 | UC-Santa Barbara +7.5 v. Creighton | Top | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 114 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UCSB It’s been a bad month for Creighton. Their head coach had to take a leave for making an insensitive remark to his players and when he came back to coach, the Bluejays promptly got run out of the gym by Georgetown in the Big East Tournament Final. That 25-point loss very well could have a carryover effect here as Creighton faces Cal Santa Barbara, a dangerous 12-seed that has won 18 out of its last 19 games. In the month of March, the Gauchos won four of their five games by 14 or more points. It’s going to be very tough for Creighton to gain any real separation in this matchup as they aren’t very good defensively. The Bluejays’ NCAA Tournament history is not good. They are 4-12 ATS in all Tourney games and lost their last three straight up. UCSB has won 20 or more games the last four seasons. So they are used to winning. We already saw one 12-seed win in this year’s Tournament. Grab the points in this one. Play on CAL SANTA BARBARA AAA |
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03-20-21 | Eastern Washington +11 v. Kansas | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 111 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EWU There is no denying the fact Kansas closed the season strong. The Jayhawks will arrive at the NCAA Tournament having won eight of their last nine games. The one loss was by three at Texas. But they were forced to withdraw from the Big 12 Tournament because of a positive COVID-19 test and that kind of disruption can certainly have an adverse effect on the team here. Eastern Washington is the first round opponent and this isn’t your typical 14-seed. The Eagles have lost just once since mid-January, a span of 14 games. That one loss was by only five points. During this 13-1 stretch, they have averaged over 80 points/game. Leading scorer Tanner Groves shoots the ball very well. Kansas was only 7-7 away from Allen Fieldhouse this year and it’s no guarantee they win this game, let alone by any kind of serious margin. Three of their last four wins were by single digit margins. In its last five games, Eastern Washington gave up an average of 59 points on 38.5% shooting. They’ll keep it close. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON AAA |
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03-19-21 | Utah State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 53-65 | Win | 100 | 88 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS TECH Texas Tech doesn’t have a very good ATS record, but they’ve suffered many tight losses to Big 12 teams. This is a short number against a team from the Mountain West, a conference that typically does not do well in the NCAA Tournament. The Red Raiders last two Tournament appearances have yielded runs to the Elite Eight and National Championship Game. The big problem for Utah State in this game is going to be turnovers. In three of their five losses, the Aggies turned it over an average of 17 times per game. Texas Tech is great at forcing TO’s, forcing the 29th most per game in the country at the eighth highest rate. Utah State topped 62 points once in its last four games. That’s not going to be enough to cover the spread Friday. The Aggies are just 1-5 ATS their last six NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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