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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-22 | Providence v. Marquette +2.5 | Top | 56-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* Marquette (BIG EAST GAME OF YEAR) Providence is 13-1 overall. Its only loss was against Virginia at a neutral site. Marquette is 8-6 and it comes in starving for a win today after four straight losses. Five of the Golden Eagles' last six games though have come against Top 50 teams. The Friars have so far exceeded expectations and now they hit the most difficult part of their schedule. Overall the Friars average 69.8 points per game while allowing 61.1. The Golden Eagles are ranked 67th in defensive efficiency rating and they are ranked 39th overall as far as pace is concerned. I say regression is imminent for Providence. Marquette comes in focused here and as the hungrier team. Finally, note that the Golden Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a divisional home dog in the +1.5 to +3.5-points range. The outright is possible, but grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-04-22 | Spurs +6 v. Raptors | Top | 104-129 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
10* Spurs (PLATINUM CLUB) I think the Spurs catch the Raptors at a good time here. San Antonio is off a 117-116 loss at Detroit. The Spurs though remain one of the league's highest scoring teams, averaging 111.5 PPG. With a tough upcoming schedule, including a game at Boston tomorrow night, I believe Greg Popovich has his troops prepared to play today. The Raptors are off a relatively simple 120-105 home win over New York and they've won two in a row, but Nick Nurse will likely rest many throughout this game with a contest at Milwaukee tomorrow night. The Raptors only average 106.9 PPG as well. Outright?! Anything is possible, but I do definitely expect this to be very competitive and that's the reason why I'm grabbing the points! AAA Sports |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers +3.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* Steelers (BLOOD-BATH) I don't particularly "like" either of these starting quarterbacks (or teams for that matter!) in this matchup. That said, despite his age and the "ups and downs" he's experienced this year, I trust veteran Ben Roethlisberger at home over Browns' starter Baker Mayfield. The Browns have lost two straight, most recently a tough 24-22 loss to Green Bay. The Steelers are off a 36-10 loss to Kansas City. If recent history is any precedence, then the Steelers have to be loving their chances as they're 6-3-1 the last ten in this series. Each teams averages and concedes roughly the same amount of points. This is Roethlisberger's final game at Heinz Field though, as he's all but announced that he'll be retiring at the end of the year. Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, but look for "home field" to be the difference today. The play is Pittsburgh! AAA Sports |
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01-03-22 | Grizzlies v. Nets -7 | Top | 118-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH on Nets. The bottom line here gentlemen is that these are two very good teams. Memphis has been playing well of late, but I think it's overmatched here facing this Nets team that's coming off a poor loss to the Clippers in their last outing, allowing a whopping 40 points in the fourth quarter, an effort which promted Steve Nash to asses: "We deserved to lose that game." Both James Harden and Kevin Durant had huge nights, but Brooklyn stumbled down the stretch. Memphis is off B2B home wins, but it's still just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a SU/ATS home victory in which it held its opponent to 105 or less points in. I think Harden and Durant lay the hammer down here after that pathetic effort last time out. Lay the points, this one gets UGLY! AAA Sports |
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01-02-22 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +10 | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska. The Buckeyes are 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS. Ohio State comes to Nebraska off a 73-55 win over Wisconsin as a 5-point favorite. The issue here for Ohio State is that its last three games have been canceled due to COVID-related issues. I say that "rest" leads to "rust." Nebraska on the other hand is 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS. Nebraska can't afford to look past anyone. It broke a five-game slide last time out in a relatively simple 88-74 victory over Kennesaw State. Ohio State is 48th in offensive efficiency and it allows just 67.3 PPG. Nebraska on the other hand is ranked 267th offensively and 267th defensively. On paper, the Huskers are overmatched, but this is a great "situational" play here. And it's strong from a trend standpoint as well, as Ohio State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine when playing with two or more weeks of rest between contests. No outright, but VERY tight in the end! AAA Sports |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
10* AFC GAME OF YEAR Miami Dolphins. Miami has won seven straight, most recently beatting New Orleans 20-3. The Dolphins current win streak has vaulted them into the final playoff spot in the AFC. Overall Miami averages 20.3 PPG, while allowing 21. On paper, that doesn't sound like a recipie for success, but those numbers are skewed after its terrible start to the season. In last weekend's win, QB Tua Tagovailoa completed 19 of 26 passes for 198 yards, one touchdown. Tennessee is off a 20-17 win over San Francisco. The Titans average 23.8 PPG, while allowing 21.7. QB Ryan Tannehill had 209 yards passing and one TD in last weekend's victory. The Fish don't run the ball particularly well, but Tagovailoa is going to be able to exploit this Titans' secondary. This one is going to come down to the wire. I'm going to grab the points! AAA Sports |
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01-01-22 | Warriors v. Jazz -4 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Jazz. The Warriors are 27-7, but they're off a listless 89-86 defeat to Denver. With a night off before a home game againt the Heat, Golden State will have to very careful to not get caught looking ahead today. This is the first matchup of the year between the clubs, but the Jazz enter having won six in a row. Utah is the highest scoring team in the league, averaging 116 PPG, and its guard rotation matches up well against Stephen Curry and company. The Warriors are ranked seventh in scoring, but note that they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to 90 points or less in. Look for Utah to come out and push the pace from start to finish. The play is the JAZZ. AAA Sports |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 600 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY So this is the big one, our top play of the College season. On New Year’s Day (Jan 1) it’s #13 Iowa facing #22 Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. It’s Big 10 vs. SEC here. Iowa is reeling off a 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship Game. Really, the Hawkeyes were never as good as their lofty ranking this season. They were blown out - badly - three times. Their three losses - to Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan - were by a combined score of 93-17. They had four wins by seven points or less. Six of the last seven games saw them lose the total yardage battle. The poor performance in the Big 10 Championship Game, and late season slide, cannot be ignored. It’s certainly why Kentucky now finds itself favored after opening as the dog. The Wildcats also experienced three losses this year, all in a row. It wasn’t the most daunting SEC schedule that they played. But they beat LSU by 21. If you can believe this, Iowa was outgained for the year - per game and per play! Quarterback is a question mark for the Hawkeyes and Kentucky pretty clearly is the better offensive team in this matchup. They average 33.2 PPG, a full TD more than the Iowa offense. UK is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when it scores more than 19 points this year. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference games. This while Iowa is 2-5 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas -1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS Since this matchup was first announced, Arkansas has become the favorite to win the Outback Bowl. Not only is this the Razorbacks’ first New Year’s Day Bowl since 2008, it is the program’s first bowl of any kind since the 2016 Belk Bowl. So they will be motivated to win under second year head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas played well down the stretch, winning four of its last five games. The only loss was to Alabama, by just seven points. Trending in the opposite direction is Penn State, which has lost five of seven following a 5-0 start. The Nittany Lions have now had two straight disappointing seasons for James Franklin. Both teams are down a key receiver. But the big story is the Penn State defense having five starters opt out of the game, safety Jaquan Brisker being the most notable. They also have an interim defensive coordinator for this game. Looking at the QB position, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson is a dual threat that will cause problems for an inexperienced defense. Penn State’s Sean Clifford will feel the loss of his top receiver more as the Nittany Lions’ offense has struggled to run the ball all season. Before beating Auburn earlier this year, PSU had failed to cover five straight games vs. SEC opponents. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State +6.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA STATE For the most part, these “larger” favorites simply haven’t been getting the job done during the bowl season. Teams favored by at least points are 5-8 ATS in the bowls thus far with five straight up losses. Wisconsin is a team that finds itself favored by a large amount, in the Las Vegas Bowl vs. Arizona State. A late night start against a West Coast team in Vegas probably isn’t the ideal spot for the Badgers, who really underachieved this year with four losses. It had seemed they’d gotten over a hump late in the year, but then came a 23-13 loss to Minnesota in the final regular season game. The defense slipped by giving up 51 points in the last two games and may struggle again here facing an ASU offense that scored more than 30 in three of its last four games. The Sun Devils, also once considered a Top 25 team, are led by QB Jayden Daniels on offense. He had a disappointing year, but this is his chance to shine. Considering what Wisconsin likes to do offensively, the Sun Devils' defense only allowing 3.6 yards per rush attempt is huge. There have been reports that Wisconsin is dealing with a COVID outbreak and could come in undermanned. Play on ARIZONA STATE AAA |
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12-30-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. UCF | Top | 71-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN With four losses on the season, Michigan has tumbled out of the rankings. But we don’t think it’ll be long until the Wolverines find themselves back in the Top 25. The last time they played, it was a 37-point win over Southern Utah. Not every game is going to be that easy, but tonight’s contest at UCF should be another comfortable victory where Michigan covers the spread. Juwan Howard’s team destroyed UCF last year in Ann Arbor, winning 80-58 as 13-point favorites. They don’t even need to win by half that margin tonight. UCF seems to be getting a bit too much credit for a four-game win streak that hasn’t included any tough matchups. A game at Temple two weeks ago was the only real challenge of sorts. The Golden Knights were blown out by their toughest opponent so far, Auburn, who beat them 85-68 back on Dec 1. Michigan is the toughest team UCF will have faced (besides Auburn) thus far. This is the smallest spread for any Michigan game in 2021. They’ve been favored in every game. It’s been an underachieving start to the season for the Wolverines, but tonight they assert themselves in a major way. They are 10-3 ATS L13 as road favorites while UCF has failed to cover the last four times it has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina +10 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA Judging by how the odds have moved, bettors seem to think North Carolina is a “sure thing” for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl against South Carolina. But we’re not so certain that the Tar Heels, who started the season ranked in the Top 10 and ended up going 6-6, are going to be all that motivated Thursday afternoon. South Carolina will be motivated. The Gamecocks are also 6-6, but this is their first bowl game since 2018. First year coach Shane Beamer got his team to overachieve and late season wins over Florida and Auburn tell us the underdog won’t be the least bit intimidated coming into this one. Throw in the fact it’s a regional rivalry of sorts (teams last played in 2019) and the Gamecocks almost certainly will not be going quietly into the night. We don’t think they’ll be all that intimidated going against pro prospect Sam Howell, the North Carolina QB that has already declared for the NFL Draft. South Carolina ranks seventh nationally, giving up only 179 yards passing/game. They were 10th in the FBS with 15 interceptions. The North Carolina offensive line isn’t all that sound in pass protection either; it allowed Howell to be sacked 45 times in the regular season. South Carolina’s offense admittedly isn’t all that great, but UNC’s defense gave up 30 or more points eight times. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA AAA |
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12-29-21 | Thunder v. Suns -14.5 | Top | 97-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHX Even at full strength, Oklahoma City would stand little chance of winning this game. But the Thunder aren’t even close to being full strength entering Wednesday. Six players were in protocol for last night’s 117-111 loss in Sacramento. That includes star rookie Josh Giddey, the team leader in both rebounds and assists. Coach Mark Daigneault was also absent last night. All these absences, coupled with the fact they played last night, means OKC is very likely to be blown out tonight in Phoenix. The Suns are hoping to avert what would be their first three-game losing streak of the season. After losing Christmas Day to Golden State, they fell at the buzzer to Memphis on Monday. The Suns’ last win came against the Thunder, 113-101, back on 12/23. We think the final margin will be a lot larger tonight as the favorite is hungry and more motivated this time. They’d just beaten the Lakers the previous time they faced the Thunder. Phoenix is pretty clearly one of the three best teams in the NBA this season. We’d consider Oklahoma City among the three worst. This promises to get ugly in a hurry. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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12-29-21 | Tennessee v. Alabama -2.5 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Tennessee is coming off a very impressive win over Arizona last week, so they’ve got to be feeling pretty good about themselves heading into the SEC opener at Alabama. But the Crimson Tide are ranked in the Top 20 as well. It’s been a bit of a shaky December in Tuscaloosa with the Tide losing two of its last three games, including one-point setback to Davidson in their last game. But this is an Alabama team that has beaten both Gonzaga and Houston this year. You probably aren’t going to find a team that has a better two wins on its resume. The Crimson Tide’s recent issues on the defensive end - they’ve given up 79 or more points in four of the last five games - should only serve as motivation for tonight’s game. Teams are still only shooting 43.1% against the Tide for the year and 39.3% here in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have been great at defending the three-point line as well. At home, they allow just 26.3% of attempts to be made from behind the arc. Tennessee has played just one true road game so far and that was at Colorado. The Volunteers have not shot the ball well outside of Knoxville as they were held to 53 and 52 points in neutral court losses to Villanova and Texas Tech. This is a good spot to jump on Bama. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson -2 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEMSON Without RB Breece Hall, we see Iowa State’s offense having major issues moving the ball against a Clemson defense that was #2 in the country, giving up just 15.0 points/game. Hall isn’t just the Cyclones leading rusher and one of the best backs in the country, he scored 23 touchdowns, most in the country. Him skipping the bowl game is a lot more important than Clemson losing its two coordinators. Dabo Swinney will have his team ready for the Cheez-It Bowl as so far none of his players have announced they’ll be skipping the game. The Tigers’ offense was rightfully ripped in the early part of the season - when the team lost three of its first seven games. But over the final five, Clemson averaged an impressive 36.4 points and scored at least 30 in every game. Even though the Tigers had a disappointing year, by their standard, they should be ranked higher than 19th. There probably aren’t 10 better teams in the country. If there are, Iowa State isn’t one of them. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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12-28-21 | Thunder v. Kings -5.5 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO Laying points with Sacramento might sound a bit dicey, but we are expecting an inspired effort tonight from the Kings after interim head coach Alvin Gentry called Sunday “the most disappointed I’ve been in 34 years in the NBA.” The Kings were outscored 78-52 in the second half by Memphis as they lost a third straight game by 15 or more points. But tonight they are welcoming in Oklahoma City. Despite four wins in its last five games and being 6-0 ATS in their last six, the Thunder remain one of the worst teams in the NBA. They are last in the NBA in scoring and get outscored by 11.8 points/game on the road. So expect the rare, comfortable win for Sacramento on Tuesday. The Kings are also looking to avenge a two-point road loss from last month. That game in OKC saw them blow a 14-point halftime lead. Play on SACRAMENTO AAA |
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12-28-21 | Yale +13 v. St. Mary's | Top | 60-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on YALE It’s been two weeks since Yale took the court. The favorites to win the Ivy League this year have suffered through a disappointing start to 2021-22, going just 6-7 in their first 13 games. They lost at home to Monmouth two weeks ago and you can bet the Bulldogs have been seething ever since. Tonight, they find themselves on the opposite side of the country, playing St. Mary’s, who is 11-3 SU and gearing up for conference play. The Gaels will host 12-1 San Francisco on New Year’s Day and there’s a good chance that the players & coaches might be more focused on that game than they are this one. So laying double digits in this spot seems like a dicey proposition. We know that St. Mary’s is 8-0 at home and only gives up 55.9 points/game. But this is too many points vs. a good Yale team that will be motivated, trying to avoid a third straight loss. Play on YALE AAA |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AIR FORCE Air Force had itself a very good year. The Flyboys went 9-3 and the three losses were by a total of 17 points. Two of the losses were at the hands of Utah State and San Diego State, the teams that played for the Mountain West Conference Championship. The other was an overtime game against Army. Look for the Falcons, who led the nation in rushing offense, to run wild in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas Tuesday afternoon. The Air Force goes for 342 yards/game on the ground. To put that number in perspective, it’s 60.9 more than the next closest team. Louisville isn’t exactly great at stopping the run. Look no further than their last game, when they conceded a ghastly 362 yards rushing to Kentucky, which ended up being a 52-21 loss. The Cardinals allow 4.5 yards/rush attempt, which ranks 92nd in the country. They had a very up and down year, finishing 6-6, and most of the success/failure was tied to QB Malik Cunningham, the only player in College Football to both throw and run for 15 touchdowns. What sticks out to us about Louisville is that they only beat one bowl team, Boston College, whose bowl was cancelled. The six losses were all to bowl teams and the defense gave up an average of 37.3 points in those games. This game comes down to which defense can get more stops and we think that will be Air Force. Play on AIR FORCE AAA |
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12-28-21 | Houston +3.5 v. Auburn | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 503 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU Being in the Birmingham Bowl gives Auburn a bit of a “home field edge” (two hours from campus). But how excited is the fanbase going to be about this game? It ended up being a disappointing 6-6 regular season for the Tigers as they lost their last four games. Sure, they turned in a game effort in the Iron Bowl vs. Alabama. But there was also a loss to South Carolina before that. The Tigers gave up 43 points at home to Mississippi State. They scored only three points at Texas A&M. Houston lost just two games this year, their first and last. The first was to Texas Tech and that was almost four months ago, so there’s no use analyzing that. The second was the AAC Championship Game to undefeated Cincinnati. In between, the Cougars won 11 straight games and looked great doing so. A big storyline to watch is the Auburn offense, which lost QB Bo Nix. Head coach Bryan Harsin fired his offensive coordinator and will call the plays in the bowl game. We just don’t think that will have much of an effect. Houston puts up 37.3 points/game. Auburn can’t possibly match that number…and they are favored. Houston should be really motivated to win this game. They played poorly in last year’s bowl game and Coach Holgorsen could use a postseason win. The Cougars’ defense is #1 in the country on third down. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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12-27-21 | Mavs v. Blazers | Top | 132-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland has just three wins in its last 14 games. But at least they’re at home where they started the year out on a 10-1 tear. With Thursday’s game vs. Brooklyn postponed, the Blazers have had five days off to prepare for Dallas tonight. The Mavericks turned in a game effort Christmas night vs. Utah, only losing by four as 13.5 point underdogs. But they continue to be very undermanned with Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr and three others in protocol. Portland is also without five players, but at least they’ve got Damian Lillard, who has averaged 38 points on 54.8% shooting (48.4% on threes) over his past three games. Like Portland, Dallas has been slipping of late, dropping four of its last five games. So we’ve got two struggling teams that will be short-handed Monday night. We side with the home team due to Lillard and the fact they are better rested. The Mavs’ only road win in the last 17 days came at Oklahoma City. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins -3 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI New Orleans was kind to us last Sunday night, so we almost feel a bit bad playing against them here. But the situation has gotten bleak for the 7-7 Saints, who placed quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill on the COVID-19 list Thursday. That means fourth string rookie Ian Book will be making his first NFL start Monday night. Keep in mind that the Saints’ offense only scored nine points last week. The defense, which shut out Tom Brady, is also now dealing with multiple COVID-related absences. Now Miami, another 7-7 team, was kind to us last week as well, in that they didn’t cover the spread. But the Dolphins still picked up their sixth straight win, beating the Jets 24-17. It shouldn’t be much trouble for a red-hot team to beat a COVID-depleted opponent, and the Dolphins are 5-1 ATS during their six-game win streak. Shockingly, the Saints defense gives up 402 yards/game at home, most in the NFL. Once a power-house in primetime, the Saints are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight night games, including 1-3 this year. Miami is the call here. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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12-27-21 | Brown v. Syracuse -9.5 | Top | 62-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Syracuse will be looking to end a two-game losing streak when it welcomes Brown to the Carrier Dome on Monday. Those two losses for the Orange both came to old Big East rivals. First, it was Villanova and then it was Georgetown. It’s also been 16 days since Jim Boeheim’s team took the court. It’s been a 17-day layoff for Brown, who is coming off a five-point loss to Vermont. Before that, the Bears had won and covered four in a row, though none of the teams they beat were as good as Syracuse. The key here is who will get off to a better start? Rust could certainly be a factor for both teams. We believe the home side is better equipped to handle the situation. Something we should mention from the loss to Georgetown is that the Orange led by 10 at halftime. Boeheim has five players on the roster, one of which is his son, averaging at least 12 points/game. Brown has only one player that averages that many. The Orange have been scoring a lot at home thus far and are just too potent offensively for their Ivy League opposition. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | Top | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEVADA No bowl game has seen more line movement than this one. Based on the news of QB Carson Strong opting out (so that he can prepare for the NFL Draft), Nevada has gone from a 6.5 point favorite to a 7 point underdog. The Wolf Pack are going to be without some other players as well. Furthermore, Jay Norvell left to go be the coach at Mountain West Conference rival Colorado State. So it’s been a tough month in Reno. But this rather unprecedented line move seems like something we want to take advantage of. As we pointed out in our last bowl play, which saw Georgia State drub Ball State 51-14, the MAC is just horrible in bowl games. The conference is 1-5 this bowl season. Western Michigan didn’t even play for the MAC Championship, so the idea of them laying points sounds grim. The Broncos really don’t know what they’re preparing for, with so many unknowns ready to suit up on the other side.WMU is 0-3 in its last three bowl games and 1-8 all-time in them. Nevada is 4-0 ATS its last four bowl games and 10-1 ATS its last 11 games as an underdog. They should show up to the Quick Lane Bowl very motivated to prove the doubters wrong. We will take the points. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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12-26-21 | Nuggets -4 v. Clippers | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Add Paul George’s name to the list of Clippers who won’t be in action Sunday. Los Angeles was already without Marcus Morris Sr, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luke Kennard and Jason Preston and of course Kawhi Leonard, who hasn’t played at all this season. Looking at that list of players, only Kennard has a shot to play tonight. The Clippers did somehow pick up a win on Wednesday, but tonight’s effort should more closely resemble the team that had lost three in a row before that. Meanwhile, Denver should be really motivated after losing to Charlotte on Thursday, a game in which it had a 17-point lead going into the fourth quarter. That was the Nuggets second straight loss and third in the last four games. Nikola Jokic is still playing well though, averaging 26.2 points and 13.1 rebounds his L10 games. He went for 29-21 on Thursday. The Nuggets are a lot closer to “full strength” than the Clippers are right now and that makes them very attractive here in a game they’ll desperately want to win. Play on DENVER AAA |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON These teams are playing for the second time in three weeks. Dallas won in Week 14, 27-20, just barely covering as 6.5 point favorites thanks to Washington missing an extra point. A second win over the Football Team would clinch the NFC East for the Cowboys, who are already in the playoffs by virtue of a 21-6 win last week over the Giants. Entering this week, Dallas is tied with Green Bay for the best ATS record in the league. Washington, now 6-8, is fighting for its playoff life after a 27-17 loss in Philadelphia on Tuesday. The short week does the Football Team no favors, but they are at home and set to get QB Heinicke back from the COVID list. We also think this number is too big. Dallas scored just two offensive touchdowns last week. Washington is 4-1-1 its past six games as an underdog. The Cowboys have not won back to back games by double digits at any point this season. Washington has not lost a game by more than 10 points since Oct 24 at Green Bay. The Cowboys have been very lucky to force four turnovers in each of the last games. Grab the points here. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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12-26-21 | Steelers v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KC Pittsburgh has no business having a winning record as all seven wins this year have been one-score games and they’re -44 in point differential. This is a team that's being outgained by 50 yards/game. In four of their last five games, the Steelers have been down by double digits. They were able to overcome a 13-3 deficit last week to beat Tennessee, but are 0-6 ATS off their previous six ATS wins. Their only other SU win since early November (other than last week) was by one point over Baltimore, who went for two and the win instead of forcing overtime. The Steelers lost by 31 to Cincinnati, trailed the Chargers by 17 in the second half and the Vikings 29-0. Kansas City is not having any such issues at the moment. They have seven in a row and covered the spread five straight times. Before last week’s overtime win over the Chargers, the KC defense had allowed 17 points or less six weeks in a row. The Steelers’ offense isn’t good at all. For the Chiefs’ offense, Tyreke Hill has been activated from the COVID list. Take the far better team. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-25-21 | Warriors +6 v. Suns | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE This is our best matchup on Christmas Day. The two best teams in the West face off as the 26-5 Suns host the 26-6 Warriors. The last time they met, we took the Warriors laying 6.5 at home. They covered for us in a 118-96 win and in the process ended Phoenix’s 18-game win streak. That is one of only two losses the Suns have suffered in the last 27 games. Despite them potentially not being at full strength for Saturday, we again will side with Golden State, this time as our 10* Game of the Month. As long as Steph Curry and Draymond Green are both healthy, and they are, the Warriors should not be getting this many points from anybody. They have a better statistical profile than the Suns and the players that are potentially going to be absent (Poole, Lee, Wiggins) collectively aren’t worth more than 1-2 points to the spread. Grab the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY No matter if it’s Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum or Bernie Kosar, the Browns don’t stand a chance at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day. The Packers are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in 2021 home games. The six wins have come by an average of 13.7 points. Last week’s win in Baltimore got too close for comfort at the end, but Green Bay was up big in that one and we don’t see them making the same mistake of letting Cleveland hang around here. The Browns are getting their COVID players back this week, but that comes at a bit of a price. With so many players out last week, the game was moved to Monday. That now puts them on a very short week. In the last six games, the Browns are averaging 13.6 points, which would rank 30th in the league ahead of just the Giants and Jaguars. Also, the team’s best defensive player, Myles Garrett, may not play in this game. Green Bay has put up 31 or more points each of the last four weeks. This is no contest. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State -5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE Georgia State finished its season at 7-5, but they’re a lot better than that record as they won six of the final seven games. The only loss came in a near upset over Sun Belt Champ Louisiana. The Panthers beat Coastal Carolina, who went undefeated last year, 42-40. The defense allowed just one offensive touchdown in five different games and had 84 tackles for loss, a school record. Ball State, which won the MAC in 2020, took a step back to 6-6 this season and didn’t become bowl eligible until winning its final game (over Buffalo). The Cardinals offense averages just 24 points/game and scored more than 30 just three times. In half the games, they scored 20 or less. They were bottom 10 nationally in time of possession. We don’t see where the offense comes from for Ball State in this year’s Camellia Bowl. The Cardinals were first time bowl winners a year ago, but the MAC almost always stinks in bowl games (already 1-4 this year) and we don’t like this group’s chances. Not against a Georgia State team whose only ATS loss in the last seven games was as 15.5-point favorites in a 28-20 win. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns -14.5 | Top | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX Oklahoma City has won three in a row. That’s not a sentence we anticipated writing. The Thunder defeated the Nuggets on Wednesday night, 108-94, a game where we were on the wrong side. We’ll again be on the opposite side of the Thunder here tonight, only this time, look for us to be right. Phoenix is clearly the “real deal” having won 24 of its last 26 games including a four-game win streak heading into tonight. The Suns have covered the spread in all four wins as well, winning by an average of more than 18 points per game. Each of the last three wins have been by 18 or more. The Thunder are still one of the league’s bottom teams and have been outscored by more than 20 points/game when playing with zero rest. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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12-23-21 | 49ers -3 v. Titans | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF We really like San Francisco in this Thursday night matchup. They are playing much better than Tennessee at the moment and the Titans’ alarming number of absences only continues to grow. It was announced Wednesday that the entire starting left side of the Titans’ offensive line - tackle Taylor Lewan and guard Rodger Saffold - will miss this game. That seems particularly ill-timed as the 49ers have Nick Bosa, who has recorded 15 sacks this year and one in each of the last six games. Of course, the Titans were already without Derrick Henry and we’ve seen the effect on their offense as they’ve gone four straight games without scoring more than 20 points. Their only win in those four games was over the hapless Jaguars. The 49ers are 5-1 in their last six games and now control their own destiny in the NFC playoff picture. Go back to the start of the season and you may remember that many were predicting the Niners to be one of this year’s most improved teams. They just rocked Atlanta 31-13 at home last week. On the road, SF has been a covering machine for Kyle Shanahan, going 15-8 ATS including 4-1 when favored by three or less. The Niners have won 17 of their last 23 road games. They are the better team, so we will lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +2.5 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH TEXAS North Texas saved its season and maybe coach Seth Littrell’s job by winning its last five games. They are even hotter ATS, having covered six in a row. The win that got them bowl eligible was the most impressive as they defeated previously unbeaten UTSA, 45-23. You can honestly make the case that there aren’t many teams in the country hotter than the Mean Green entering bowl season. Miami may have been the best team in the MAC this year, but didn’t even get a shot at playing for the Conference Championship as they dropped their final regular season game, 49-48 to Kent State. The RedHawks are only 6-6, but they are 6-3 in their last nine games with the three defeats coming by a grand total of five points. Still though, we don’t think they should be the favorite in this one. The Miami offense likes to pass, but that plays into the strength of the North Texas defense, which allows only 230 yards/game through the air. The clear strength of the North Texas offense is the running game, which averages 246 yards/game, third most in the nation behind Army and Air Force (two teams that don’t pass). The Miami defense wasn’t very good against the run this year, so look for that to be the difference in the first ever Frisco Football Classic. Take the points with North Texas. Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |
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12-22-21 | Illinois -13.5 v. Missouri | Top | 88-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 10* on ILLINOIS This game takes place in St. Louis and is known as the “Braggin Rights Game.” Last year, in the midst of the pandemic, a decision was made to “flip a coin” for home court advantage. Missouri won the coin toss and then the game, 81-78 as a 3.5 point underdog. You can bet Illinois remembers that and will be out for revenge Wednesday night. This Fighting Illini team isn’t as strong as the one that earned a #1 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament. But they are a lot better than Missouri, who comes in at 6-5 with losses to the likes of Kansas City and Liberty. The Tigers also got blown out by 37 against Kansas earlier in the month. Illinois’ only loss this month came against an Arizona team that is among the very best in America. We’re a bit perplexed that the Illini aren’t in the Top 25. The revenge angle definitely matters here and we look for the Illini to make a big statement. It promises to be a dark day for Missouri athletics as we’re also fading the football team in the Armed Forces Bowl. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-22-21 | Nuggets -5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Oklahoma City just picked up a win, which is not something that happens all that often. We had them plus the points on Monday as they beat Memphis 102-99 in a huge revenge spot. Remember that the Grizzlies had previously handed OKC the largest loss in NBA history (73 points) back on December 2nd. Even more rare is the fact the Thunder have now won two straight games. They also beat the Clippers 104-103 on Saturday. Since winning four in a row in early November, the Thunder have not strung together more than two straight wins at any point. So tonight is a good time to fade them. Denver, who is also coming off an upset win, has had the last four days off. The Nuggets were supposed to play in Brooklyn Sunday, but the Nets’ COVID outbreak had other ideas. In their last game, Denver put up 133 points against Atlanta. Over their last six contests, the Nuggets are scoring almost 120 points/game. If they can maintain that average, then it’s “smooth sailing” tonight. Oklahoma City can’t score even close to 120. They are last in the league at 99.2 points/game. Honestly, the Nuggets won’t even need 120 to cover here. They swept the season series last year and OKC never scored more than 101 in any of those three games. Play on DENVER AAA |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARMY It’s only apropos that Army would be involved in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Black Knights are a perfect 3-0 all-time in this particular bowl, last winning it in 2018 when they smashed Houston 70-14. This time they are looking to recover from a disappointing 17-13 loss to Navy in the regular season finale. Prior to losing to their rivals, the Cadets had won four in a row. The opponent on Wednesday is Missouri out of the SEC. The Tigers were, at one point, 0-8 ATS this season before they covered the spread as 40-point underdogs in a 43-6 loss to Georgia. Their leading rusher (Badie) has elected to skip this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Badie didn’t just lead his team in rushing, he led the entire SEC in rushing! On top of that, the Tigers are trying a new starter at quarterback. Mizzou just isn’t a very good team and on top of everything, a defense that struggles to stop the run (229 YPG allowed) figures to have a LONG day at the office here against Army’s triple option. Play on ARMY AAA |
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12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on 'NOVA Xavier takes an 11-1 record into Philly tonight. The Musketeers have won seven straight games and already pulled three upsets this year. They did not cover the spread in their last game, however. As 11-point favorites, Xavier could only beat Marquette 80-71. It’s much tougher opposition on Tuesday. We say that knowing full well that Villanova has lost two straight games, one to #1 Baylor and the other to Creighton. Both those losses were on the road though. Poor shooting was the culprit in each loss. Nova made only 22.2% of its field goal attempts when they faced Baylor. They were “up” to 33.3% vs. Creighton. From three-point range, they went a combined 10 of 50 in the two games. At home, that’s not going to happen. The Wildcats have averaged 90.7 points in their three previous home games. Xavier has lost seven in a row here and failed to cover the spread in all seven losses. With four losses already on this season’s resume, Nova can’t afford another. Look for a strong effort at both ends tonight. Lay it! Play on VILLANOVA AAA |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHI With Minnesota desperately needing a win tonight, this line has skyrocketed. The Vikings are one of five NFC teams currently with six or seven wins and the Saints shocking upset of the Buccaneers last night puts even more pressure on the road team to win here. While it is true that the Vikings are the only team in the NFL yet to suffer a defeat by more than eight points, they also have just one win by more than eight points and that was back in Week 3 against Seattle. Not sure how you can trust this team laying more than a field goal on the road after watching them blow nearly all of a 29-0 lead last week at home to Pittsburgh. Minnesota is never as good away from home where they are giving up 29.2 points/game as opposed to the 21.2 per game they allow at home. They have just two road wins all year. Plus they are just 5-16 at Soldier Field this century and 1-5 overall in the last six meetings with the Bears. QB Cousins has a terrible 1-9 record on Monday Night Football. The Bears were winning at halftime last week at Green Bay, so don’t be fooled by that final score. Three of the four previous games were decided by three points or less. We’re grabbing the points. How can you trust Minnesota to win big on the road? Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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12-20-21 | Thunder +8.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC Memphis has gone a very impressive 10-2 so far without Ja Morant. But one of those two losses was last night, 105-100 to Portland as 4.5 point home favorites). Now the Grizzlies are set to play again, without rest, Monday vs. Oklahoma City. Since the Morant injury, there’s been just one time the Grizzlies were asked to play back to back nights. On that occasion, they lost the first game but came back to win the second, 108-95 over the Lakers. But when analyzing this win streak, one can see the oddsmakers haven’t really taken the Grizzlies all that seriously. Now they (the oddsmakers) have them laying a big number tonight vs. Oklahoma City. Of course, everyone remembers the last time these teams played. Memphis won in record-setting fashion, 152-79. It was the largest single game margin of victory in NBA history. Tonight is the Thunder’s shot at revenge. OKC just beat the Clippers on Saturday. They are 3-3 straight up since that humiliating defeat earlier this month. We won’t say they’ll win tonight, but take the points as Memphis is in a bad spot and unlikely to continue playing as well as they have without Morant. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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12-20-21 | Western Carolina v. Georgia -10 | Top | 79-85 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UGA Georgia has had their problems recently, but should roll tonight, at home vs. Western Carolina. The Bulldogs are looking to put an 80-67 loss to George Mason behind them. The loss, which took place Saturday, was here in Athens and the ‘Dawgs were 2.5 point favorites. Falling into a 14-0 hole to start the game was the “death knell” as UGA was playing for the first time in 11 days and first time since losing a second starter to a season-ending injury. We understand the current “state of the program” may not sound great in Athens, but this Western Carolina team that’s paying a visit on Monday is pretty bad. The Catamounts have not played in over a week. Their last game was a one-point loss to UNC-Asheville. Georgia still did a good job on the offensive glass vs. George Mason, but somehow came away with only seven second chance points. Their size advantage in this matchup should result in a lot more inside scoring, whether it’s on first or second chance opportunities. Western Carolina relies heavily on the three, but Georgia’s size will make them struggle in that area tonight. The Bulldogs beat Memphis here earlier this month. There’s no reason to think they can’t blow out this Western Carolina team. Play on GEORGIA AAA |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS So much has changed since the Saints defeated the Buccaneers 36-27 as four point home dogs back in Week 8. New Orleans lost Jameis Winston to injury in that win and hasn’t really gotten great quarterback play since. After beating Tampa, the Saints lost their next five games, a streak which finally ended last week by beating the Jets 30-9. The Bucs are 5-0 SU/ATS as double digit favorites this season and have a 6-0 record at home. So it’s not a surprise that they are such big favorites for Sunday Night Football. But we still like this Saints’ defense and think they can keep it close. Trevor Siemian took a lot of the snaps for NO in the first game vs. the Bucs. Now it’s going to be Taysom Hill, who adds a different dimension to the offense. Tampa’s defense showed that it was not very good last week, letting Buffalo come back from a 21-point halftime deficit to force overtime. Alvin Kamara returned to the Saints lineup last week after missing four games. The Saints have won the last six regular season meetings with the Bucs. Do they win here? Probably not. But they will stay within the number. So take the points. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Last week, the SuperBook had the look-ahead line for this game at Bengals -3. But due to last week’s results, we’re now a long ways away from that look-ahead line. Denver definitely didn’t have any problem winning 38-10 last week, but that was against a 1-win Detroit team that was playing shorthanded. As for Cincinnati, they came all the way back from a 20-6 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime. But after kicking a FG to go up 23-20, the defense gave up a TD to lose 26-23. With both the Bengals and Broncos coming in at 7-6, this is a massive game for both teams’ playoff hopes. The bloom has come off the “Cincinnati rose” a bit in recent weeks as the Bengals have lost two straight at home. But they still have a +61 point differential and are 4-1 on the road. We think the Bengals are better than the Broncos. No team has scored more touchdowns outside the red zone than Cincy. Joe Burrow’s finger injury doesn’t look to be a problem as he threw for over 300 yards last week. We really can’t see the Bengals losing three straight after such a good start to the year. Home favorites of less than a field goal have performed quite poorly this NFL season. They are 6-14 straight up and ATS. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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12-19-21 | Jets +9.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NY JETS Miami returns from its bye on a five-game win streak (also 5-0 ATS) and at 6-7 for the year. They are just one game behind the Bills for second place in the AFC East and very much still alive in the playoff hunt. Down at the bottom of the division is the Jets, who are 3-10 and coming off a rather ugly 30-9 home loss to New Orleans. While we can understand the lack of enticement for the Jets in this spot, this is a lot of points for Miami to lay. The Dolphins still only average 19.5 points/game. They were 6.5 point favorites in their last game and did cover, but that’s the only game this season where the ‘Fins were a favorite of more than 3.5 points. During the win streak, Miami’s average of 2.9 yards per carry ranked dead last in the league and they may not have any of their top three running backs on Sunday. Are the Jets bad? In a word, yes. But only three teams in NFL history have gotten back to .500 after falling six or more games below and it’s happened only once since 1984. If this line reaches double digits, it will be only the second time since 2010 that Miami is favored by 10 or more. What we are saying here is that the line is just too high. The Jets will keep this one close. Play on NY JETS AAA |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH Tennessee is 9-4, which believe it or not has them tied with the Patriots and Chiefs for the best record in the AFC. We understand that the Titans beat the Chiefs as well as the likes of the Colts, Bills and Rams. But does this really “feel” like the top team in the AFC? We don’t think so. Do not forget they lost to the Texans. With only a +34 point point differential on the year, Tennessee should probably feel lucky to be 9-4. Remember their point differential was only +14 before sending Urban Meyer to an early retirement last week. The Titans have four wins by three points or less. Now Pittsburgh’s also been a bit lucky in close games. But with their record at only 6-6-1, they are in much more dire need of a win Sunday. At home, we think they get the win they need. Lots of injuries on the Titans' side. There’s no Derrick Henry and no AJ Brown. That’s part of the reason the offense could only manage 3.8 yards per play against the Jaguars last week. Key for the Steelers is getting off to a good start. They’ve scored zero first half touchdowns the last three games and found themselves in a 28-0 hole vs. Minnesota last week. But that was a Thursday game, just four days removed from a physical win over the Ravens. Now they’ve had more time to prepare and are at home. As a small favorite, they’ll come up big. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette -5.5 | Top | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 272 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ULL The New Orleans Bowl pits Louisiana (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) against Marshall (7-5, 6-6). Louisiana is the champion of the Sun Belt, having beaten Appalachian State 24-16 in the SBC Championship Game. The Ragin Cajuns’ only loss was in the season opener vs. Texas. So they have won 12 straight games coming into the New Orleans Bowl. Marshall wasn’t nearly successful, losing five times. Four of those Thundering Herd losses were by seven points or less. But we’re still shocked that Louisiana isn’t a bigger favorite Saturday night. This is a de facto home game for them in New Orleans. Marshall lost two of its final three regular season games including the last one by 32 points. A big key here is that the Thundering Herd run defense is very bad. It gives up 245 yards/game on the road. The Louisiana offense, led by QB Levi Lewis, is capable of putting up big points in every game. Marshall QB Wells threw 12 interceptions this year. A final note: Louisiana twice beat App State, who did defeat Marshall. Play LOUISIANA AAA |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND The Colts are actually favored here. While they are a good team and probably better than their 7-6 record, Indy isn’t as good as New England, who is the hottest team in the league. The Patriots opened this season at 2-4. Since then, they have both won and covered seven in a row. Both teams are off byes here. But we like the Patriots defense, which has allowed no more than 13 points in six of those last seven wins. That defense is why the Pats were able to get away with throwing just three passes two Mondays ago in Buffalo. It also helped that they ran for 222 yards. Now it’s not as if the Colts aren’t hot themselves. They’ve won four of five and seven of 10 (two losses in overtime). However, three of their last four wins were over the Jets, Jags and Texans aka the three worst teams in the NFL, New England is on an 8-0 run against Indianapolis. While many of the players have changed, Bill Belichick has been the Patriots’ coach for all of those wins. NE has also won all six of its road games this year. The Colts are only 3-4 here at home. The Patriots should be the favorites in this game. Because they are not, we are definitely “getting down.” Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BYU BYU (10-2) will look to cap a successful season on Saturday as they face UAB (8-4) in this year’s Independence Bowl. The Cougars’ only two losses came against Boise State and BYU, back to back, in the middle of the season. They were 5-0 SU vs. Pac 12 teams, including a win over Pac 12 Champion Utah. Having played such a tough schedule and coming in averaging 48.5 points over the last four games, BYU is our call not just to win this game but also to cover the spread. UAB was 0-2 against ranked teams in the regular season and while those two opponents (Georgia, UTSA) lost just twice all year (combined), it’s still worth mentioning because BYU is ranked 13th. The Blazers have not beaten a ranked team since 2011! Also, UAB lost to a bad Rice team and was dominated by Liberty. Other than Georgia, BYU is as good a team as UAB will have faced this year. BYU has faced several teams that are better than UAB and more often than not came out on the winning end. The much stronger resume and the fact that the top unit in this game is the BYU offense have us on the favorite. UAB has just one bowl win EVER while BYU has won three of its last four. UAB is also the most penalized team in the country. Play on BYU. AAA |
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12-17-21 | Heat -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Playing shorthanded, the Heat were still able to go to Philadelphia and win the other night. So winning at Orlando here doesn’t seem like a big ask. The Magic are quite bad this year, which was to be expected. But perhaps things have gone even more poorly than anticipated? The team’s record is 5-24 and they have the worst point differential in the league right now. Since Nov 17, the Magic have won just one game. They’ve lost six in a row, which is one shy of the losing streak they were on at the end of November. So it’s 13 losses in the last 14 games. The Heat have taken it to the Magic recently by winning each of the last three matchups, including a 17-point victory back in October. Orlando’s rotation is depleted now, just like Miami’s, the key is we believe the Heat are more apt to deal with the absences. Miami has won three of its last four games, beating Milwaukee, Chicago and Philly, all top tier Eastern Conference teams. Surely they can beat the lowly Magic by more than the oddsmakers are asking for here. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City has won its last six games and it’s been the defense leading the charge. The Chiefs have allowed just 10.8 points/game during the six-game win streak with no opponent scoring more than 17 on them. The last three weeks have seen KC give up exactly nine points in every game. It’s also on a 4-0 ATS run at the betting window. Tonight’s game shapes up as the biggest of the year. The Chiefs have revenge for a 30-24 loss back in Week 3. If they win tonight, then it’s a two-game lead in the AFC West. But if they lose, they’re tied with the Chargers and would lose the tiebreak. We believe in KC, not just because of the defense, but also Patrick Mahomes. Despite having what is considered a “down year,” Mahomes is still fifth in the league with 3,642 passing yards. The Chiefs put up 48 points last week on the Raiders. They were -4 in turnovers in the first meeting with the Chargers and got outscored 16-7 in the fourth quarter. That turnover margin negated a 437-352 edge in total yards and 33-21 edge in first downs. The Chiefs have won seven straight road games over the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the sport. On the COVID front, LA could be without 2-3 starting offensive linemen. Look for Kansas City to get its revenge tonight and keep rolling. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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12-16-21 | Jackson State v. Drake -15 | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DRAKE Drake looks to cover the spread for the first time since 11/14! The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, although they’ve won four of them straight up. The level of competition has been stronger than what they’ll face here, a Jackson State team that’s 2-8 and has been to less than 40 points in two different games. The schedule has been murderous so far for Jackson State as they have played nothing but true road games. This is the 11th in a row to start the year as well as the third in the last five days. The Tigers have to be running out gas at this point. They’ve done a decent job of covering the spread (7-3 ATS), but at some point a team has nothing left to give. That’s what we expect the case will be tonight for the road team. Jackson State only averages 56.3 points/game. Drake is averaging 81.3 points/game at home and at some point the Bulldogs HAVE to cover the spread. Why not tonight? Play on DRAKE AAA |
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12-15-21 | Wolves v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 124-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver has a 12-game win streak over Minnesota that dates back to the 2018-19 season. They swept the last three season series and won 93-91 (as a 1.5-point dog) in the Twin Cities back in October. Now the Nuggets are dealing with a lot of illness and injuries at the moment. But that didn’t prevent them from building a 33-point lead over Washington in the last game. Before that, they went to San Antonio and won by 15. Be aware that the game vs. the Wizards only got close after Nikola Jokic got ejected. Denver has been outstanding at the defensive end in home games this season, giving up only 99.4 points/game. The Timberwolves come in shooting just 40.4 percent their last five games and 42.4% for the year. Prior to a 116-111 win in Portland the other night, the T’wolves had dropped five in a row, three by double digits. Their recent defensive efforts have been terrible with eight of the last nine games seeing them give up 110 or more points. Lay the points in this one. Play on DENVER AAA |
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12-14-21 | Warriors -4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GSW Steph Curry will look to become the NBA’s all-time leader in three-pointers made when his Warriors visit New York on Tuesday. Curry is only two threes shy of Ray Allen’s record entering this game. Considering he made five last night, it would seem like a lock that history will be made tonight in Madison Square Garden. You have to figure Curry’s teammates will want to make the record-setting day a victorious one as well. Laying only a few points here to the struggling Knicks seems to be a “no-brainer.” This line is relatively short because Golden State was in action Monday. They beat Indiana 102-100, but it was the third game in a row where they did not cover the spread. Seeing as the Warriors lead the league in point differential, a win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight doesn’t sound so far-fetched. The Knicks aren’t as good as the Pacers. NY has dropped three straight games and six of its last seven. At home, they lost by 15 to the Bucks on Sunday. It was their third double digit loss in the past five games. Don’t overthink this one. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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12-14-21 | Northwestern State v. LSU -34.5 | Top | 49-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU LSU is still undefeated and should win in a romp tonight. Now you probably already knew that by looking at this pointspread. It is quite high. But Northwestern State truly has zero shot at being competitive in Baton Rouge. The Demons are 2-8, both wins coming in non-lined games. They beat Dallas Christian Saturday. But not all the news was good. A flu bug has made its way through the Northwestern State locker room, affecting both players and coaches. Even at full strength, Northwestern State could not compete here. With players out, tonight’s game should get ugly in a hurry. There have been three games this season that the Demons have lost by 30 or more points. One was to Houston, the only top 15 team they’ve faced. LSU isn’t in the top 15, but probably should be as they’re off to their best start in over 20 years at 9-0. The Tigers’ six home wins have been by more than 30 points/game and they’ve covered the spread every time. They should mirror Houston’s 41 point win over Northwestern State and continue their climb up the rankings. Play on LSU AAA |
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12-13-21 | Suns -2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 95-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX Thanks to Golden State’s loss Saturday night, Phoenix (21-4) now has the best record in the NBA. The Suns are on the road tonight, facing the Clippers. This is obviously a big game for both teams. But with the Suns having won 20 of their last 21 games, how can you not like them laying such a short number? Defensively, they are one of the best teams in the NBA, allowing only 104.4 points/game and 43.4% shooting. Only Golden State allows fewer points per possession. The Suns are also a top five offensive team in the league. This is where they are vastly superior to the Clippers, who are only 24th in offensive efficiency. Phoenix doesn’t have Devin Booker right now, but the Clippers are playing without both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. This is going to be the Clippers’ 9th game in the last 16 days. Phoenix has had a much “lighter schedule” of late. The only team to beat the Suns since October is Golden State. Without George and Leonard, the Clippers can’t do what the Warriors did. LA is only 6-12 ATS at home this year. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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12-13-21 | Cal Poly v. Portland -4.5 | Top | 77-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Portland is looking to bounce back from an upset loss at the hands of VMI ten days ago. The Pilots were five point favorites but lost to the Keydets 90-82. Before that, they had won seven of eight with the only loss coming by three to Montana State. They’d also covered five straight going into the VMI matchup. We like the home team here because they are well rested while visiting Cal Poly is playing a second road game in three days. Cal Poly was able to shoot 54.5% from three in its 61-58 upset over Portland State on Sunday. The Mustangs went into that game as 3.5 point underdogs. It was their second close game in a row after losing by one at San Diego on December 5th. This will be CP’s fourth consecutive road game to start the month. The win at Portland State on Saturday was the first win on the trip. Don’t see them winning two in a row as the three-point shooting from the last game can’t be matched (CP shooting only 30% from three for the year) and Portland’s offense (85.2 points/game) is just too much. CP has scored more than 61 only twice against Division I opponents this season. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS After enduring an 0-3 November (SU and ATS), the Rams had what amounted to a “get well game” last week as they throttled the Jaguars 37-7. That leaves them two games back of the Cardinals in the NFC West and tonight is pretty much a “must win” if the Rams have any hope of winning the division. That’s because they lost the first meeting with Arizona, 37-20, back in Week 4 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Here’s why we think tonight will be different for the Rams. For starters, the Cardinals are just 3-2 since a 7-0 start. Also, while Arizona is 7-0 SU on the road, they are just 3-2 at home. Going back further, the Cards are 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 games as a home favorite. Going into Sunday, any home favorite of three points or less was just 6-13 straight up and against the spread this year in the NFL. Sean McVay was 8-0 ATS vs. the Cardinals prior to the Week 4 loss. Don’t be fooled by the fact Arizona won 33-22 last week. They were outgained 329-257 and had 12 fewer first downs than the Bears. The key to the Cardinals winning at Soldier Field was being +4 in the turnover department. Thanks to roster additions like Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr, the Rams are a stronger team now than they were back in Week 4. This game is more important to them, so we are taking the points. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers -12.5 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Back in Week 6, Green Bay (-5.5) defeated Chicago 24-14 at Soldier Field. It was during that game Packers QB Aaron Rodgers quipped about “owning” the Bears. Rodgers has a point. Only Brett Favre has more wins over Chicago during the Super Bowl era. Favre went 23-13 vs. the Bears in his career. Rodgers might have fewer wins than his predecessor, but has been more profitable to bet on with a 19-6 ATS (21-5 SU) head to head record against the “Monsters of the Midway.” The Bears have won just one game since that Week 6 loss. That was on Thanksgiving against the Lions where they needed a last second field goal to win 16-14. Justin Fields is expected to start Sunday night for Chicago. But honestly who cares? The Bears offense is no better with Fields than it is with Andy Dalton. Lame duck coach Matt Nagy is calling the plays either way. Green Bay is playing at home and coming off the bye. The Pack are 5-0 SU and ATS in Lambeau, scoring 27.8 points/game while allowing just 14.4. In the last two games, GB has scored 31 and 36 points. The Bears have yet to score more than 27 in any game all season and have scored 20 or less a total of eight times. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO In blustery conditions, the Bills went down 14-10 at the hands of the Patriots Monday night. It’s a loss that leaves them at 7-5 and two games off the pace in the division. Given how this season started, it’s kind of shocking to see Buffalo with five losses right now. Even more strange is that New England was able to win despite attempting only three passes! You can expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to attempt a lot more than that. But fortunately, the Bills’ pass defense ranks first in the league in yards allowed per game (165.3) and fewest touchdowns allowed (8). The Bills’ offense won’t have to contend with horrible weather conditions here in Tampa Bay, so look for Josh Allen and the passing attack to be revitalized. Even after Monday, Buffalo still averages 28.0 points/game, placing them in the top five in the league. Tampa is undefeated at home, but they’ve previously hosted the Giants, Bears, Dolphins, Falcons and Cowboys. Only the Cowboys have a winning record out of that group and the Bucs beat them by just two points. Buffalo has been an underdog only one other time this season. It was against Kansas City, a game they won 38-20. The perception right now is that the Bucs are a lot better than the Bills. But we don’t agree with that and will take the points. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-11-21 | Warriors -2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GSW The Warriors are short road favorites tonight in Philadelphia and we’ve got to lay the points. Golden State is clearly the best team in basketball right now. There’s not a single metric that suggests otherwise. They’ve lost only four games, three by five or less and the other to a Suns team that was on an 18-game win streak. They immediately avenged that loss to the Suns with a 22-point win. The Warriors last two wins have also been by double digits. They beat Orlando by 31 and Portland by 10. Those were at home, but the Warriors are also 7-2 on the road. Golden State is outscoring teams by basically 13 points/game. So that’s why we’ve got zero hesitation about laying this number. Philadelphia hasn’t covered any of its previous three games. Twice they could barely beat an undermanned Charlotte team and then they got crushed by Utah here at home. The Jazz are probably the second best team in the league right now. What Thursday told us is that Philly is not ready for this level of competition. The Sixers aren’t just 3-8 ATS at home, they are only 5-6 straight up. Steph Curry could set the NBA record for most career three-pointers made tonight. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY The annual Army-Navy game goes down in East Rutherford, NJ on Saturday. This rivalry was once owned by Navy, who had 12 straight wins over Army at one point. But the Black Knights have turned the tables, winning four of the last five meetings. It was a 15-0 Army shutout last year. This year, there’s really little doubt as to who the better team has been. Army enters at 8-3. They’ve won their last four games. Two of three losses were to P5 teams Wake Forest and Wisconsin. Navy has played some challenging games as well. The difference is they are 3-8. The Midshipmen did cover four of their last five games, but it’s hard to like them as a single-digit underdog. They’ve been a double digit dog seven times and favored only once. Army is better on both sides of the ball, averaging 15 points/game more on offense and allowing about 7 points/game less on defense. The teams may play similar styles of football. But Army is just better. Play on Army AAA |
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12-11-21 | Penn State v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Fresh off handing Minnesota its first loss, Michigan State returns to East Lansing to play host Penn State on Saturday. The Spartans come in at 8-2. They were seven-point favorites on Wednesday, despite the fact their opponents were undefeated. Consider this a “lesson learned” as we made the mistake of fading Sparty at Minnesota. Tom Izzo's team came out red hot and took a 37-24 lead into halftime. Penn State is not nearly as strong as the Golden Gophers, so with this game being a home game, expect MSU to roll. Penn State’s only other true road game this year resulted in a 25-point loss at UMass. Since then, they are just 4-3. The Nittany Lions lost the Big 10 opener 76-64 to Ohio State before bouncing back with an easy win over Wagner earlier this week. This is a rivalry that Michigan State has dominated with wins in 39 of the 48 all-time meetings. The Spartans already have four wins over Top 40 teams and are 4th in the country in defensive efficiency. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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12-10-21 | Pistons +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 93-109 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DET The Pistons have lost 10 in a row. But at least they were able to force overtime in their last game, which they lost at the buzzer. The 119-116 loss to the Wizards marked the fourth time that the Pistons lost by five or less during the current losing skid. Tonight they are catching a decent number from a New Orleans team that certainly can’t be labeled as “good.” The Pelicans also lost in overtime Wednesday, 120-114 to Denver, leaving them with the same number of losses that Detroit has (20). We think that this is a good spot to take the points as Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last six games and they were favored one of the two times they failed to cover the spread. This is just the third time this season that New Orleans will be favored to win a game. They’ve gone 0-2 ATS the previous two times, losing both games outright. The Pelicans are also 0-7 ATS this season when facing a team that has a losing record. We’ve got to play against the home team on sheer principle in this one. New Orleans should never be this large of a favorite. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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12-10-21 | DePaul v. Louisville -7.5 | Top | 62-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on L'ville DePaul is off to a pretty impressive 7-1 start. The Blue Demons’ one loss came against Loyola Chicago and that was by only four points. Following that first loss, they rebounded with an impressive 20-point win over Duquesne earlier this week. The Blue Demons’ ATS record matches their SU record as the one time they failed to cover was in an 84-80 win over Western Illinois where they were 9.5 point favorites. Tonight they are underdogs for just the third time this season. While it may seem tempting to take DePaul plus the points in this situation, they are outclassed playing at Louisville. The Cardinals have dominated the head to head series with the Blue Demons, winning 21 of the last 23 meetings. They’re 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS against them as the home team. L’ville has two losses but has also played a much more challenging schedule than DePaul has. In their last game, the Cardinals went to NC State and won the ACC opener. They also hold wins over Mississippi State and Maryland in tournament play. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA |
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12-09-21 | Iowa -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA We’ve got an unranked team laying points on the road to a Top 25 opponent that’s also undefeated. That’s quite the statement by the linesmakers. And we agree that Iowa is the better side in this Thursday night matchup. Give Iowa State credit for being 8-0, especially since they’ve been underdogs in three of the previous four games. They pulled upsets over Xavier, Memphis and Creighton. But none of those teams are as strong as the Hawkeyes, who are seeking to end a two-game losing streak tonight. Iowa was 7-0 before facing Purdue, who is now the top ranked team in the country. That was a two-point game in the final three minutes. Then it was a four-point loss to Illinois on Monday. Both those Big 10 opponents are much stronger than Iowa State. Not to be disrespectful to the Cyclones, but the only reason they are ranked is because they are undefeated. They’ve yet to face a team as good as Iowa. This is going to be their first loss of the season and we will lay the points. Play on IOWA AAA |
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12-09-21 | Steelers +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PIT These are two teams desperately needing a win as each tries to remain relevant in their respective conference’s playoff race. There’s no doubt that the Steelers are in better shape right now at 6-5-1 and coming off a surprise 20-19 win over the Ravens. While Pittsburgh now has to hit the road on a short week, they are facing a 5-7 Vikings team that just lost to the Lions and has two key playmakers on offense banged up. WR Thielen will not play for Minnesota tonight. RB Dalvin Cook reportedly will, but we don’t think he’ll be all that effective after suffering a dislocated left shoulder 11 days ago. You’ve got to think this will end up being a close game. The Steelers and Vikings have combined to play 24 games this season. Of those, 19 have been one-score games. That’s one of the reasons we’re taking the points tonight. The other is that the Steelers have a much better defense. They’ve allowed 20 points or less in half of their games. Minnesota has kept only three opponents under 20 points and over the last seven games they’ve allowed 28 or more five times. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-09-21 | Purdue -12 v. Rutgers | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PURDUE For the first time in program history, Purdue will take the court as the #1 ranked team in the country. That obviously puts the proverbial “bulls-eye” on the Boilermakers’ back, but expect THEM to be the more motivated group on Thursday night as they travel to Piscataway to face Rutgers. Not only does Purdue want to prove that it deserves it’s #1 ranking, but they’ve surprisingly lost the last three times they’ve taken on the Scarlet Knights. Coach Matt Painter has made sure to remind his team of the three-game losing streak. Rutgers is just simply no match for a motivated Purdue team that is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency, averaging 90.5 points/game. The Scarlet Knights just lost to Illinois by 35, a game where they were dominated on the boards. Being only 4-4 has to be a major disappointment to coach Steve Pikiell as Rutgers was the favorite in every game but the one at Illinois. Star guard Baker is still dealing with a hamstring injury and a flu bug has hit the team as well. Purdue should roll here. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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12-08-21 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +7 | Top | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINN There are still 12 undefeated teams left in College Basketball. That number is likely to decrease very soon. Five of those 12 unbeatens are in action tonight, two (Arizona & Wyoming) against one another. San Francisco (9-0) is favored, but you’ve also got Weber State (8-0) and Minnesota (7-0) taking the court as underdogs. While this game vs. Michigan State may seem like a logical end point for Minnesota’s unbeaten start, what we are seeing here is a great opportunity to grab the points. At home, the Golden Gophers shouldn’t be getting this many points from a Michigan State team that has two losses. Now those losses were to Kansas and Baylor, so you can’t really fault Sparty for not being unbeaten like Minnesota still is. But the Gophers did just win two tough road games against Pitt and Mississippi State. They were 11.5 point dogs at Miss State and led by as much as 14 points. Being back home - where they are giving up just 49.7 points/game - is huge for this team. Michigan State lost by 25 points here last season. Take the points with Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-08-21 | Wizards -6.5 v. Pistons | Top | 119-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASH Washington desperately needs a win here. The Wizards have lost their last three games and played pretty poorly against Indiana Monday night. While they only ended up losing by six points, the Wizards let the Pacers shoot 52.4 percent and were behind by 10 after the first quarter. At no point in the game did Washington hold a lead of more than three points. Now when you’re this desperate for a win, looking across the court and seeing the Detroit Pistons is definitely a good thing. The Pistons have the worst record in the league (4-19) and are on a nine-game losing streak. Four of their five starters are either rookies or in their second year in the league. Perhaps a new low was established on Monday when the Pistons blew an 18-point lead and lost to Oklahoma City. That Thunder team was coming off a record-setting 73-point loss. Detroit was actually favored to beat OKC. It was only the second time this season that they were favored to win a game. They’re not favored here, but the line is short enough that we will lay it. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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12-07-21 | Lightning -1.5 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TB -1.5 In every division across the NHL, we’re starting to see the top teams put a little “separation” between them and the rest of the pack. It’s definitely no surprise to see Tampa Bay firmly in the top three in the Atlantic. If anything, that’s to be expected as the Lightning are looking to make it three straight Stanley Cups this year. Tonight is a rematch from the last Cup Finals as the Lightning head to Montreal. Yes, that previous sentence seems strange to write as these two clubs are back in the same division this season. Last year, because of the pandemic, they were split up and that’s how they got around to meeting for the richest prize in the sport. It only took five games for TB to dismiss the Habs last summer. They’ve won 12 of the previous 15 meetings and we don’t see why they wouldn’t capture the two points tonight. The Lightning roll into Tuesday on a three-game winning streak, most recently defeating the Flyers 7-1. Montreal has lost three in a row and 9 of its last 11 games. Play the puck line in this one as the road team will prevail by at least two goals. Play on TB -1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA |
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12-07-21 | Texas Tech v. Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE It’s the Big 12 vs. the SEC on Tuesday as #13 Tennessee takes Texas Tech as part of the “Jimmy V Classic” in New York City. We’re surprised that this line is so low, considering that the Vols are ranked. Also, Texas Tech is coming off its first loss of the season, 72-68 at Providence, in what was the Red Raiders first true road game. That was six days ago. Tennessee played over the weekend as they went to Colorado and won 69-54 as six-point favorites. The Vols only loss so far was to #6 Villanova. All six of their wins have been by double digits. We figure this one will be as well. Tennessee is third in the country in defensive efficiency right now and just held Colorado to 34.5% shooting on Saturday. Texas Tech does force a lot of turnovers, but also turns it over a lot themselves. Whereas the Vols have two quality wins already (North Carolina, Colorado), the Red Raiders have nothing of the sort. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUF Two of the best teams in the NFL face off Monday night as the 7-4 Bills host the 8-4 Patriots. The Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. They’ve won and covered six straight games with five of those victories coming by at least 18 points. But tonight is easily the Patriots’ toughest matchup of the season, let alone since they got hot. Having not played since Thanksgiving, Buffalo has had extra time to prepare for this AFC East showdown. Conversely, New England is yet to have a bye (they are off next week). So that would really seem to favor the home team. We know that the Patriots are 5-0 on the road, but those wins have been against the Jets, Texans, Chargers, Panthers and Falcons. Only one of those five (Chargers) has a winning record. Three of the other four are among the worst teams in the league. With a visit to Tampa Bay scheduled for next week and a future visit to New England also on the docket, tonight is “must win” for the Bills at home. It should be a fired-up crowd and after being embarrassed (41-15 by the Colts) in their last home game, Buffalo is going to look to make a “statement” Monday night. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-06-21 | Cavs v. Bucks -7 | Top | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 10* on MIL Cleveland has been one of the real surprising teams in the NBA so far, but we don’t like their chances at Milwaukee tonight. The Cavs took a one-point loss, at home, against Utah on Sunday. That saw them battle back from a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter, only to come up one bucket short. Now they must hit the road to face another of the league’s top teams, without rest. The Bucks have won 9 of 10 and on Saturday downed Miami by a score of 124-102. That was despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has missed the last two games. But the defense from the NBA Champions continues to be sensational as only one of their last ten opponents has been able to shoot better than 43.5%. Milwaukee has beaten Cleveland seven straight times and tonight we look for them to end the Cavs’ 7-game ATS win streak. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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12-05-21 | Wizards v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR The Wizards and Raptors have already played twice.The road team won both times. Washington won here in Toronto on Opening Night 98-83. It wasn’t nearly as low scoring when the Raptors won in D.C 109-100 on Dec 3. This time we like the home team to prevail. While the Raptors have struggled on their home floor, going just 3-8, they did beat Milwaukee here on Thursday. That was a better result than what Washington did on Friday, losing to Cleveland 116-101. The Raptors have defended well recently, holding the last two opponents under 40% shooting. The Wizards haven’t been all that impressive away from home, going 4-7 ATS and scoring 101.8 points/game. Defensively, they were ravaged by the pick and roll against Cleveland. So Toronto has its blueprint for success. Playing their fourth straight game at home, the Raptors should have no excuses tonight. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams -12.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS We know the Rams have lost three in a row. But we can’t see them struggling to beat a 2-9 Jacksonville outfit that has not cleared 17 points in any of its last five games. Despite being only 1.5 point home dogs, the Jaguars lost last week 21-14 to the Falcons. That was their third straight loss since a stunning 9-6 win over the Bills in Week 9. The Rams' last three losses have all been to winning teams (Titans, 49ers, Packers), which doesn’t make it any better, especially because they closed as favorites in all three games. Going back even further, LA is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. But this has all the makings of a “get well” game for the NFC West contingent. The Jags are second to last in offense at 15.7 points/game. The Rams average 27.2 points/game and that’s when facing better competition than they’ll see on Sunday. Against sub-.500 teams, LA is 5-0 this year with the average win coming by 16.2 points. This is their firs game at home since acquiring Von Miller and Odell Beckham. It should be an inspired effort. Jacksonville has lost 15 straight non-conference games and knows its season is basically “over” at this point. We don’t expect the underdog to put up much resistance in this one. Play on LA RAMS AAA |
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12-05-21 | Arizona -11 v. Oregon State | Top | 90-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona is a strong team and should easily be able to defeat Pac 12 rival Oregon State by double digits. At 6-0, the Wildcats are one of 12 unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. They are one of the highest ranked as well with #4 Baylor and #10 Arkansas the only undefeated teams above them in the top 25. The Wildcats haven’t just been winning either. They’ve been blowing out every opponent. Their six wins have been by an average of 33.8 points/game. There was one close game, a four-win over Wichita State, but all others have been by at least 18 points. The last time ‘Zona was on the court, they blew out Sacramento State 105-59 as a 29-point favorite. In addition to being the conference opener, this will be the Wildcats' first true road game. They could not have asked for a better opponent as Oregon State has dropped seven in a row since opening the season with a 73-64 victory over Portland State. The Beavers have certainly had their share of close defeats - three by three points or less - but they also just lost by 12 at Cal on Thursday. Arizona has been off for a full week and played just one game in the last two weeks. They are rested and simply better. Last year’s trip here to Corvallis resulted in a 34-point win. The home team has no chance here. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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12-05-21 | Vikings -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MINNESOTA Minnesota needs to string a couple wins together or they run the risk of falling out of playoff contention. Fortunately, the Vikings are facing the winless Lions this week. Coming up short in San Francisco last week leaves the Vikes at 5-6 SU overall. All six losses have been one-possession games, four by four points or less and two in overtime. As for Detroit, they just let their best chance at a win slip away on Thanksgiving, losing 16-14 to the Bears. The Lions have also dropped four games by four points or less. One was at Minnesota, 19-17 in Week 5, which came down to a last second FG. We don’t think the rematch will be quite as close as the Vikings should be “out for blood” this Sunday. Look for WR Jefferson to have a big game as not only was he named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November, but he had seven catches for 124 yards in the first meeting. This terrible Lions offense hasn’t scored more than 19 points since Week 1. Neither team will have its starting RB. But Detroit has lost eight straight times to Minnesota, a streak that goes all the way back to 2017. Dan Campbell is not the man for the job nor is Jared Goff. Lay the number is this one. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA Michigan is 10-2 ATS, best in the country, but coming off the biggest win the program has had in many years, we do not see them defeating Iowa by double digits. This is a tricky spot for the Wolverines. They are off the 42-27 win over Ohio State and now expected to make the College Football Playoff. Iowa, 10-2 and once ranked as high as #2 in the country, is basically playing with house money at this point. The Hawkeyes were blown out by both Purdue and Wisconsin in the middle of the season. But coming into 2021 their previous eight losses had all been by seven points or fewer. They’ve got a very good defense in Iowa City, one that should travel well to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Title tilt. Iowa is only giving up 17.3 points per contest, placing them in the top ten nationally. They are also top ten in number of yards per play allowed. Looking at the total, the expectation is that this is going to be a low-scoring game. So why not take the double digit underdog that can afford to play “loose?” Michigan is not going to be able to run the ball as effectively here as they did last week. Favorites are just 2-8 ATS in the history of the Big 10 Championship Game and 0-5 ATS excluding Ohio State. Play on IOWA AAA |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -125 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO ST Utah State has been a big surprise this year, reaching the Mountain West Conference Championship Game after going 1-5 in 2020. So they’re a nice story. But we’re going to point to an ugly 44-17 loss to Wyoming two weeks ago as to why this story is unlikely to have a “happy ending.” Utah State’s 15th ranked passing offense really struggled against Wyoming, who came in with the fourth best pass defense in the country. Aggies QB Bonner completed only 19 of 40 passes for 181 yards. We bring this up because San Diego State, the team Utah State faces on Saturday, has the #9 ranked pass defense in the country. The Aztecs are also top nine in the country in both scoring defense and yards per play. They’ve allowed more than 21 points just two times all year. Last week against Boise State, SDSU found themselves down 16-3 early in the second quarter. They shut the Broncos out the rest of the way and took the game 27-16. The Aztecs’ offense should find plenty of success running the ball here vs. a Utah State defense that gives up 164 rush yards per game. Against Wyoming, the Aggies allowed 362 yards rushing! Utah State’s three losses this year were by an average of 22 points. San Diego State not only has perhaps the best defense in the Group of Five, but also the best punter. They are much better in two of the three phases of the game and should roll to an easy ATS win on Saturday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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12-04-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 21-16 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK STATE #5 Oklahoma State has a legit chance to make the College Football Playoff with a win here. That motivation alone should be enough to carry them to victory in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. All the Cowboys seemingly need to have happen (besides winning this game) is have Michigan, Alabama or Cincinnati lose this weekend. Doesn’t seem too far-fetched, especially considering ‘Bama is an underdog. Baylor is ranked #7 but their path to the CFP seems a lot more murky considering the fact that no team outside the top six in the rankings on Championship Saturday has ever reached the CFP. While the Bears have won outright three of the four times they’ve been an underdog, the one time they didn’t was against Oklahoma State. Baylor was +3 in turnovers in that game and not only lost 24-14, but failed to cover the four-point spot. Outside of two big plays, the Bears’ offense really struggled in that game. They punted on their first eight possessions! QB Gerry Bohanon is listed as questionable to play on Saturday because of a hamstring injury. Our view is that with or without Bohanon, the Bears offense will once again struggle to move the ball against a tough OSU defense. If they couldn’t beat the Cowboys while being +3 in turnovers, it’s unlikely that they will beat them here when that differential is unlikely to repeat itself. OSU is 9-2-1 ATS this year, second in the country behind only Michigan. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA |
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12-03-21 | Suns v. Warriors -7 | Top | 96-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE We’ve got quite the showdown Friday night in the NBA as the 19-3 Suns, winners of 18 straight games, take on the 18-3 Warriors. Now these teams just met, Tuesday in Phoenix, and the Suns came out ahead by the score of 104-96. Golden State shot a season-low 41.9% in that game and matched a season-high with 23 turnovers. But we think they are deserved favorites for the rematch. First off, this time the game is in San Francisco. The Warriors are 11-1 at home and averaging 116.7 points/game. Secondly, the Suns are at a clear disadvantage having played another game last night. Golden State has not played since Tuesday. While it was a relatively easy 114-103 win for the Suns on Thursday, over the Pistons, things will not be that easy here in the second night of a back to back. Phoenix shot 54% against Detroit, including a blistering 76% in the second quarter, got 48 bench points and had seven players finish in double figures. Don’t expect any of that to happen again tonight. Leading scorer Devin Booker got injured Tuesday, missed last night’s game and isn’t expected to play here. Meanwhile, Steph Curry should break out after being held to 4 of 21 shooting in the last game. Look for the Warriors to end Phoenix’s record win streak and lay the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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12-03-21 | Oregon v. Utah -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTAH It was all Utes in the regular season matchup, a 38-7 win by the home team in Salt Lake City. That cost Oregon any chance of playing in the College Football Playoff, so there’s no denying the revenge factor here for the Ducks. But revenge can only carry a team so far. Has that much really changed in the two weeks since these Pac 12 rivals last played? We think not. Utah’s offense converted 8 of 10 on third down in the first half against the Oregon defense and also averaged 6.1 yards per play. But the Utes’ defense was even more dominant in pitching a first half shutout and allowing virtually zero big plays. Will Utah be as dominant on a neutral field? Probably not. But this is a team playing very solid football right now. Don’t be fooled by the final score of last week’s win over Colorado. The Utes had almost 300 more yards and a 23-9 first down edge in the 28-13 game, their fifth straight win. Three of the last four opponents have gotten held to 13 points or less. Last week marked the first time in eight games where the Utes offense failed to score 34 points. They are just bad matchup for Oregon. Play on UTAH AAA |
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12-02-21 | Spurs v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 114-83 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND We’re a little shocked at how low this spread is. The shock is for two reasons. One, San Antonio comes in on its first win streak of the season. Before this, they’d never even won two straight games all year. So we see another win being highly unlikely, especially because they are playing in Portland tonight. That brings us to the second reason for being shocked about the line. The Blazers have been a great home team thus far, winning 10 of 11 games here and covering the spread nine times. We took them the other night when they were hosting Detroit and that ended up being an easy 110-92 win as 9.5 point favorites. It was a game that the Blazers basically controlled from start to finish. They led by as many as 26. Now Damian Lillard is still out (for at least 10 days), but considering how the Blazers looked on Tuesday without him, we don’t think that’s going to be a problem here. The Spurs aren’t a very good team and winning for a third straight time as underdogs seems unlikely. On the road, they are just 2-7 and they average less than 100 points. Portland is 5-1 ATS its last six games vs. San Antonio. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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12-01-21 | Michigan v. North Carolina +2 | Top | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on N CAROLINA At one time, Michigan was ranked as high as #4 in the country. But Juwan Howard’s team has already lost twice (to Seton Hall and Arizona) and hardly looked impressive as 21-point favorites last week in a 64-54 win over Tarleton State. Tonight finds the Wolverines playing their first “true” road game of the year and it’s in Chapel Hill, part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. So far the Big 10 has largely dominated this event, taking six of the eight head to head matchups, including Ohio State beating #1 Duke last night. North Carolina is 0-6 ATS coming into this game, tying them with William & Mary for the most ATS losses without a win this season. But getting this game at home is pretty huge for the Tar Heels. Michigan is down to #24 in the rankings and turns the ball over too much, even when facing bad teams. They turned it over 20 times vs. Prairie View A&M and 21 times vs. Tarleton State. If UNC, who comes in averaging 83.2 points/game, can be disruptive enough at the defensive end, then they will pull the “upset.” The Tar Heels are off their best defensive effort of the season as they held UNC Asheville to 53 points on 26.5% shooting a week ago. Take the points. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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11-30-21 | Pistons v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland’s road woes continued last night as they were blown out in Utah, losing 129-107 as 7.5-point underdogs. That completed an 0-3 road trip for the Blazers, who are now 1-10 (SU and ATS) for the year away from home. But they have been a completely different team at home where they are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. Starting tonight, they will play eight of their next nine games in Portland, including the next four. Even better is that the first home game (tonight) is against a 4-16 Detroit team that stinks no matter where it plays. The Pistons have lost their last six games. While many of them have been close, this is going to be their fourth road game in seven days, all of them taking place out West. At home, Portland is scoring 12 more points per game than what they allow. Detroit, who is one of three teams not even averaging 100 points/game, gives up 110 points/game on the road. Look for the home team to win this one by double digits. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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11-29-21 | Tarleton St v. Gonzaga -30.5 | Top | 55-64 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GONZAGA Gonzaga just suffered what was only their second loss since the start of LAST season. Duke beat them 84-81 in Las Vegas Friday night. Of course, the only other Gonzaga loss in the last two years came in April’s National Championship Game against Baylor. They obviously did not get a chance to immediately bounce back from that one. But they can bounce back here. Considering who the opponent is, this could get ugly in a hurry. Tarleton State isn’t any good to begin with and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time as far as we’re concerned. The last four times Gonzaga has been off a loss, they have covered the spread in the next game. Tarleton State has yet to even beat a Division I opponent this season (0-5). The Texans will have no answers here for a team that beat UCLA by 20 last week. Gonzaga already has three wins by 34 or more points this year. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE It’s not the most attractive matchup on Monday night, but we like the Seahawks to cover against the Washington Football Team. While Seattle is a very disappointing 3-7, this is a game they can certainly win. Last week, the ‘Hawks were favored to beat 9-2 Arizona. We know that game was at home and the Cardinals didn’t have Kyler Murray. But it’s certainly a bit jarring to see them go from being favored to beat the team with the best record in the league to underdogs against a 4-6 Football Team. Now Washington has won two straight. One of those was against Tampa Bay. Then they went on the road to upset Carolina last week. But the Football Team is still a subpar outfit. Seattle might have some injuries, but they have Russell Wilson. They also have the highest win percentage in the history of Monday Night Football, including 11 wins in the past 14 appearances. We see this as a classic buy low spot on the Seahawks, who are the better team. We’re getting a good number as the lookahead line had them favored by 3.5 points. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB Tampa Bay continued its strong play at home with a 30-10 win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Super Bowl Champs are now 5-0 SU at home this year. But on the road, they are only 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. An 0-3 ATS record this season against teams that have winning records is even less inspiring. But we will still lay the points with the Bucs in this one. Indianapolis, coming off a 41-15 win over Buffalo, seems a little overvalued. The Colts were +4 in turnover margin against the Bills, which was the difference. They’ve played three straight games of turnover-free football. A fourth straight seems a bit much as would be asking them to cover for a fifth straight time as a dog. We think the big key in this game is the Bucs having the league’s top ranked run defense. So they should be able to slow down Colts RB Jonathan Taylor a bit. You’ve got to figure that first ATS road win is coming. Only having to lay a field goal seems like a solid value. The Colts gained fewer yards per play last week than the Bills, which will be surprising to some given the final score. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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11-28-21 | Falcons v. Jaguars +2.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JAX Jacksonville should be favored in this game. We know they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But so are the Falcons, who have put up only three points total in the last two games. After being humiliated 43-3 in Dallas, Atlanta was shutout at home by New England, 25-0, last Thursday. The offensive struggles are easy to understand. WR Calvin Ridley remains out and RB Cordarrelle Patterson has been bothered by an ankle injury. Here’s something that is truly unbelievable - the Falcons haven’t had a single run play go for more than 18 yards all season. Now Jacksonville has gone four straight games without topping 17 points. But they did beat the Bills and cover against the Colts. Last week’s 30-10 loss to the 49ers was a step back and their 14th straight loss to NFC opponents. But if they’re ever going to stop that streak, it would be here. In a battle of two of the league’s worst teams, we will side with the home team getting points. Atlanta is 9-17 ATS its last 26 games as a favorite, 3-6 ATS since the start of last season. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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11-28-21 | Panthers -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAR Under Matt Rhule, Carolina has simply been a better team on the road. They are 10-3 ATS in his two-year tenure, which includes 3-2 SU/ATS this year. The last time the Panthers went on the road, they beat Arizona 34-10. Unfortunately though, they lost 27-21 to Washington at home last week. But Cam Newton looked good with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was a tie game in the fourth quarter. Miami has won and covered three in a row, but two of the wins were against the Texans and Jets. They are 0-3 ATS this year when the spread is three points or less. Carolina’s defense ranks second in the league in total yards allowed and is first against the pass. They do a good job at pressuring the QB (1st in pressure rate L4 weeks) and pass protection has been a problem for this Dolphins’ offensive line all year as they’ve given up the sixth most sacks. On a three-game win streak with the Jets and Giants coming up next, Miami might be feeling good about themselves. But we don’t see them winning a fourth straight game. They’re one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. Play on CAROLINA AAA |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA By the time this game kicks off, we’ll have a pretty clear idea of what the Big 12 Championship Game could look like. We know Oklahoma State will be involved in that game next week. They’ll play either Baylor or Oklahoma, depending on how things unfold Sunday. Any combination other than an Oklahoma loss AND Baylor win would mean these two Bedlam rivals face each other again next week. Oklahoma State comes in as the favorite Saturday. But OU has won the last six Bedlam games, plus 16 out of the last 18. The big story from a betting perspective is that Oklahoma State has covered the spread in nine consecutive games after opening 0-2 ATS. The Cowboys had a number of close wins early in the season, but have been dominant the last month or so. But it would be foolish to write off the Sooners in this game considering that they need to win in order to play for a seventh straight Big 12 Championship. They average 38.9 points/game and almost always find a way to put a healthy number on the board, save for the one loss at Baylor. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS L10 as an underdog. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU Emotions should be running high Saturday night in Death Valley. Not only is this the final home game for 19 LSU seniors, but it will be the final home game for head coach Ed Orgeron, who is leaving the program just two years after leading it to a National Championship. A win here and the Tigers would become bowl eligible, guaranteeing Orgeron one last game. Several of his players have been vocal about winning the game for their coach. "I'm so excited about this game," Orgeron said. "We're going to be pumped up and we're going to be ready to go." Avoiding what would be the first losing season in Baton Rouge in over 20 years is yet another motivating factor. We believe the team does want to go to a bowl for “Coach O.” Texas A&M has nothing to play for on Saturday night. Bowl position perhaps, but win or lose here the change in bowl game isn’t going to be all that significant. The Aggies are the only team to defeat Alabama this year, but they’ve also lost to three other SEC West teams: Ole Miss, Miss State and Arkansas. Two of the three losses came on the road. No A&M team has won at LSU since 1994 and the Aggies are just 2-7 straight up vs. the Tigers since joining the SEC. Given the circumstances, we think this line is too high. Play on LSU AAA |
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11-27-21 | Maryland -1.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 40-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARYLAND You’ve got two 5-6 teams facing off in a regular season finale. That means the winner gets to be bowl eligible while the loser is done for the year. Maryland has not covered a single Big 10 game this season. So the fact they have a chance to be bowl eligible seems pretty fortunate. Their two conference wins were by three over Indiana and by three over Illinois. The past six losses have all been by 17 or more points. But we’re taking them against a Rutgers team whose only two Big 10 victories happen to be at the expense of Indiana and Illinois. The Scarlet Knights, who haven’t won a conference game at home since 2017, were shutout 28-0 last week by Penn State. That was the third time in five games that they didn’t score more than seven points. Other than a 38-3 win at Indiana, Rutgers has not scored more than 20 points in any Big 10 game this year. They just don’t have enough offense to be taken seriously. Six of the last eight games have seen the Scarlet Knights score 13 or less. Maryland QB Tagovailoa had three straight 350+ yard games before running into Michigan last Saturday. All the Terps offense needs here is 21 points and that seems pretty attainable. Play on MARYLAND AAA |
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11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB -13.5 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UAB UAB is off a heartbreaking last-second loss to undefeated UTSA. That guarantees the Blazers won’t be returning to the C-USA Title Game. But look for them to take their frustrations out on UTEP Friday afternoon in the home finale in Birmingham. UAB is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS this season. In conference play, they are winning by an average of two touchdowns per game. That’s a lot better than UTEP, who is 7-4 SU and ATS, but only winning by an average of three points per game in conference play. The Miners weren’t expected to have a winning record in 2021. But they’ve won all five games where they were favored and pulled a couple upsets. However, UTEP has been blown out twice as a double digit underdog, once by UTSA and once by Boise State. UAB is 27-11-2 ATS its last 40 conference games and still covered in last week’s heartbreaking defeat. The Blazers have beaten UTEP five straight times, the last four wins all coming by at least 15 points. Play on UAB AAA |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS It’s been an incredibly disappointing season in Austin as Texas comes into the season finale with a 4-7 SU record. They have lost six straight games, also going 0-6 against the spread during that time. All signs point to the blown lead against Oklahoma, a game the Longhorns led 28-7 after the first quarter, as the tipping point for when things went south. But this has clearly been a case of a team being unlucky rather than bad. Five of the Longhorns’ six straight defeats have been one-score games. Yes, they lost to Kansas. But we are expecting them to “show up” here on Senior Day and beat a Kansas State team that’s got nothing to play for. The Wildcats lost 20-10 at home to Baylor last weekend. They’ve also lost four straight against Texas with last year’s game being decided by 38 points in Manhattan. Texas is a lot better than its record. We expect them to show that Friday afternoon. Lay the short number. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-26-21 | Baylor -5.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 75-58 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BAYLOR This is the Final in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament with #6 Baylor taking on Michigan State. Baylor was able to overcome a bit of a sloppy first half (13 turnovers) yesterday and beat VCU 69-61, just barely covering the 5.5 point spread. The Bears are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss came as 33 point favorites in the opening game. The opponent here is Michigan State, who upset UConn 64-60 (as 2.5 point dogs) on Thursday, thanks to scoring the game’s final nine points. The Spartans are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. The only team they lost to was Kansas (first game) and they also failed to cover Wednesday vs. Loyola Chicago. This is the third game in three days for both Baylor and Michigan State. Sparty’s two games have been decided by a total of six points. After two close calls like that, we’re just not sure they’ll have enough left in the tank to survive a vastly superior opponent. Baylor has won 31 straight non-conference games. Yesterday was probably the Bears’ weakest performance to date and they still won fairly comfortably. MSU is still only 2-8-1 ATS its last 11 neutral site games. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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11-25-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BUFFALO At one time, Buffalo looked to be the best team in the NFL. Three losses in the last five games have really tempered enthusiasm though. Yet we still believe in the team from upstate NY. The Bills have the league’s second best point differential at +119. Their top ranked defense was shredded on Sunday by Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, who scored five touchdowns. But that was a very misleading 41-15 final score. What if we told you that the Bills gained more yards per play than the Colts in that game? They did. The problem was they were -4 in the turnover battle. We think they bounce back Thanksgiving Night against the reeling Saints. New Orleans has lost three in a row. They were thoroughly dominated by the Eagles on Sunday in a 40-29 loss. Trevor Siemian, filling in for an injured Jameis Winston, is not getting it done at quarterback. The injuries are starting to pile up in the Big Easy as TE Trautman is out 4-6 weeks and OT Young will have season-ending foot surgery. The Saints are pretty clearly the inferior side in this matchup. Buffalo, who is 3-0 ATS off a straight up loss this year, is the only team in the league to be top three in both scoring offense and defense. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +1.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OLE MISS The Egg Bowl - the rivalry game between Ole Miss and Miss State - is a Thanksgiving Night tradition. This year, both schools come in ranked: Ole Miss is #12 and Miss State is #25. The visiting Rebels are 9-2, their only losses coming at Alabama and at Auburn. They have QB Matt Corral, one of the nation’s top signal callers. He has thrown for 3100 yards in 11 games and accounted for 29 touchdowns with just three interceptions. While it was closer than expected last week against Vanderbilt, the Rebels still won by 14 and the game was never in doubt. They face a hot Miss State team this week, one that has won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS. MSU has its own hot QB, Will Rogers, who has thrown for over 4100 yards this season with 34 TD passes. While the Bulldogs essentially had a “tune up” last week vs. Tennessee State, let’s look at what’s happened in their last two SEC games. They lost at Arkansas and were also down 28-3 at Auburn before storming back to score 40 unanswered points. Ole Miss won last year’s Egg Bowl, but only by seven as a 9.5-point favorite. The year before they were robbed on a horrific taunting penalty. Our view is that the Rebels will be looking to hammer their rival here and put an end to an 0-3 ATS skid in Egg Bowls. Ole Miss has been the better team all year and this game being in Starkville isn’t enough to sway us off the visitors. Play on OLE MISS AAA |
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11-24-21 | Hawks -3.5 v. Spurs | Top | 124-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA It’s been quite the difference when it comes to home vs. away for the Atlanta Hawks. The team has captured five straight, all at home, where it is now 8-1 on the young season. But on the road, they are 1-8 SU and an even worse 0-9 ATS. It’s back on the road tonight for a date with San Antonio. Given the extraordinary split we’ve seen thus far from the Hawks, you may be thinking now is the time to buck them. But facing one of the league’s worst teams should allow for their first ATS road win of 2021. The Spurs have lost five in a row while getting outscored by 13 points/game. Atlanta’s average margin of victory during the five game win streak is 14.2. So we’re looking at two teams at polar opposites of the spectrum here. The Spurs have only won four games so far, two of them coming against Orlando. A late rally Monday vs. Phoenix made the game appear closer than it actually was. Most of the way, it very much looked like San Antonio would be headed for its fourth double digit defeat in the last 10 days. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS their last five times playing with exactly one day of rest. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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11-24-21 | California Baptist v. Texas -22 | Top | 44-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Texas is 3-1 and ranked #8 in the country. That one loss came to Gonzaga, so no one is going to fault them for that. Tonight the Longhorns host an undefeated Cal Baptist team that is playing on the road for the first time in 2021. The Lancers’ previous five games - against San Francisco St, Miss Valley, Jackson St, San Jose St and Northern Colorado have simply not adequately prepared them for what’s in store here. Texas is giving up just 47.3 points/game when not facing Gonzaga this year. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, but have an efficient offense that is 16th in points per possession. On Saturday against San Jose State, the ‘Horns led by 18 just nine minutes into the game and by 30 at halftime. They ended up winning by 34 and held SJSU to 31.9 percent shooting from the floor. Even more impressive is that Texas forced 27 turnovers and had a season-high 16 steals. At the same time, they connected at just over 51% at the offensive end and had 36 points in the paint. The home team is simply going to overwhelm the opposition in this one. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-23-21 | Lakers v. Knicks -4 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYK So there’s no LeBron James tonight for the 9-9 Lakers, who visit Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks. James is suspended for getting into a fight with the Pistons’ Isaiah Stewart on Sunday. The Lakers went on to win in Detroit, but were actually behind by 15 entering the fourth quarter against one of the worst teams in the NBA. That doesn’t bode well for tonight. The Lakers have lost six of their last 10 games, most of those without James, who had been out with an abdominal strain. The Knicks, who are 4-7 their past 11 games, thought they had a win Sunday when they were leading the Bulls going into the fourth. But they gave up 37 points in the final quarter to lose 109-103 as 5.5 point road underdogs. Expect New York to play better at home tonight - for a full four quarters - and take advantage of the Lakers not having LeBron. On the road, the Lakers have been very bad defensively, giving up 117.3 points/game. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois +3.5 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NIU The MAC West has been turned upside down this year as Northern Illinois has gone from an 0-6 record in 2020 to division champs in 2021! The Huskies are 8-3 SU this season and while a majority of those wins have been close games, they already have their spot booked in next week’s MAC Championship Game. Close wins don’t matter when you’re always an underdog and Tuesday’s game vs. last place Western Michigan marks the 9th time in 12 games that the Huskies are getting points this season. They were favored last week (by two) when they beat Buffalo in overtime. It is insane to us that Western Michigan would be favored on the road here as - again - they are the last place team in the MAC West. Yes, coming into the year, the Broncos were the favorites to win this division. But they have sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. The only win came against Akron by a score of 45-40. Northern Illinois continues to be disrespected by the linesmakers, even though the offense has averaged 547 yards over the last three games. We will grab the points in this one as NIU is the better team, playing at home. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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