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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-13-20 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 229.5 | Top | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Only pride will be on the line here as Boston looks to avoid injury and Washington looks to avoid going winless in the bubble. Admittedly, the Wizards had only a small chance of making the playoffs when they got the invite to Orlando. Not having Bradley Beal made those chances even smaller. They’ve gone 0-7 SU here, covering just one game and it was as a 10.5 point underdog in a 9-pont loss. Five of the Wizards losses have been by at least 11 points. The Celtics are locked into the 3-seed and what is looking like a favorable first round matchup with the 76ers. Do not expect their key contributors to play long, if they play much at all. Last time these teams played, the Wizards actually won a low-scoring 99-94 game. The time before that was 140-133 Boston, but that was with the Wiz getting 44 from Beal. Washington has shot very poorly during their time in the bubble and whomever the Celtics decide to trot out for this meaningless finale likely won’t be sharpshooters either. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-11-20 | Celtics v. Grizzlies OVER 224.5 | Top | 122-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER With only a couple days left in the regular season, perhaps the biggest remaining storyline is who will get the 8-seed in the Western Conference. Memphis currently has the spot as they occupied it coming into the bubble. But things have not gone well here in Orlando where the Grizzlies record is just 1-5. A loss to Toronto on Sunday kept them from clinching a spot in the now guaranteed play-in series, which is set to begin Saturday. Memphis didn’t shoot the ball well against Toronto. The bench outscored the starters in the 1st half, the team was just 30% overall from the field in the 3rd quarter and finished the game at 33% (14-42) from three-point range. Off an OT win against the Magic, Boston is locked in as the 3-seed in the East. So they probably won’t have the same motivation as Memphis here. But with the Celtics having gone Over in five of their six games, what we can expect is a high-scoring game Tuesday. The Celtics have given up more than 115 points/game in the bubble and struggle to defend the interior. The Over is 18-3 the Grizzlies’ L21 games vs. teams with a winning record. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-09-20 | Grizzlies v. Raptors UNDER 222 | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Every Raptors game so far has gone Under the total. The reigning NBA Champs would just as soon like to forget the last one though as they lost 122-100 to the Boston Celtics. That game stayed Under by half a point. It was the Raptors first loss since the restart as they’d opened 3-0 straight up and against the spread with wins over the Lakers, Miami and Orlando. They held all three of those teams to 103 points or less. We should see Toronto getting back to playing that caliber of defense on Sunday as they face a Memphis team that’s off a huge upset win and thus likely to experience some offensive regression in this spot. The Grizzlies stunned the Thunder 121-92 on Friday for their first win here in Orlando. Previously, they’d gone 0-4 SU/ATS. Worth noting Memphis will likely wind up being favored in only one of its eight games as they look to preserve their hold on the 8th seed in the Western Conference. We don’t really like their chances nor do we think they’ll come close to the 55% shooting we saw against the Thunder. Remember that Jaren Jackson is out and Ja Morant has been struggling with his shot. On the bright side, Toronto has shot better than 44% in only one of its four games so far. Of the last 45 times these teams have hooked up, 31 games have stayed Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-06-20 | Canucks v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This qualification series stands at one game apiece with Minnesota having won the first game 3-0 and Vancouver battling back to take Game 2 by a score of 4-3. Obviously, the big difference between the two games is how the Canucks’ skaters performed in the second game. We had Vancouver in Game 2 and noted the Canucks not only had more regular season points than the Wild, but also a better goal differential. They aren’t really being priced as the higher seed in this series though, which is a bit interesting. Vancouver is also dealing with injuries as Tyler Toffoli left Game 2 and forward Michael Ferland had to leave the bubble for medical treatment. Still, the reunited “Lotto Line” was the difference maker on Tuesday and I still expect the Canucks to be able to score in this one. The Wild have obviously scored three goals in both games so far. The Over is 15-5-1 in Vancouver’s last 21 games overall. The Over is also 5-2 the last seven times the Wild have played on exactly one day of rest. Each team gave up plenty of goals on the road this year, so expect this to continue to be a high-scoring series. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-01-20 | Randy Brown v. Vicente Luque OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We look for this fight to go longer than expected and possibly all the way to the cards. Vicente Luque aka “The Silent Assassin” has won seven of his last eight fights. Four of the last five have hit the third round including each of the previous three. May’s win over Niko Price saw the doctor step in and call the fight with just over one minute remaining. Before that, Luque’s two previous fights both went to decision. A win here would be the biggest of Brown’s career. It would also be a third straight win overall. Interestingly, none of his nine UFC fights have ended in Round 1. All we’re looking for here is to get past the midpoint of Rd 2 and that’s something that seems likely. 10* on OVER AAA |
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08-01-20 | Rangers v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Giants are being rather coy with their starting pitching, often not naming the official starter until late in the day. Drew Smyly will end up getting the baseball on Saturday. He was okay in his first outing, only giving up a run in 3 ⅓ innings. Even more impressive is that the Giants won the game 3-1 as a +260 underdog against the Dodgers. What Smyly and the Giants are up against tonight isn’t nearly as formidable. Texas has scored 2 or fewer runs in all but one of its games. But don’t look for San Fran to score nine runs again as they did last night. They’ll face Jordan Lyles, who ended 2019 with an 8-0 TSR over his final eight starts. In addition, he threw two hitless innings of relief on Tuesday. 8* on UNDER AAA |
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07-31-20 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Rockies started the season by taking two of three in Texas. They held the Rangers to a grand total of five runs in the three games and there was some chatter about whether or not that had something to do with the new ballpark in Arlington. But then the Rockies went to Oakland and won both games while allowing only four runs total. How much this pitching staff has actually improved remains to be seen, but one thing is for certain. We’re likely about to see a dramatic turn as the team plays at home for the first time in 2020. Coors Field is a “whole different ball game” as the Rockies allowed 6.7 runs/game here in 2019. On the bright side, they also scored 6.2, which led all of baseball. Their opponent this weekend is San Diego, a team that has opened 5-2 and scored 44 runs (leads league in those seven games. We don’t expect the Padres to slow down a bit offensively in this series, Starters Jon Gray and Garrett Richards will not be able to contain the respective offenses here. 10* on OVER AAA |
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07-31-20 | Suns v. Wizards OVER 223.5 | Top | 125-112 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Wizards have just one goal over the next eight games. Finish within at least four games of either Brooklyn or Orlando and force a play-in scenario. Accomplishing that may be harder than it seems. They start 5.5 games back of the Magic and will be without their leading scorer Bradley Beal. Of the 22 teams invited to the bubble in Orlando, the Wizards are unequivocally the worst. They went 24-40 before the lockdown. Now Phoenix is in a similar boat to Washington as they are just 26-39 and face an even taller uphill climb to make the playoffs out West. Truthfully, neither of these teams come close to resembling a playoff-caliber club. What we expect Friday afternoon is a high-scoring affair between two teams that were defensively deficient all year. Though Washington is missing a lot of its offensive firepower, they are 2nd to last in defensive efficiency. Phoenix is gonna score plenty in this game, the question is can Washington? We believe so. In the last five games before lockdown, the Suns gave up an average of 121.4 points/game. These teams played one time during the year and it was a 140-132 final (won by Washington). This number has been bet way down, giving up some good value. 10* on OVER AAA |
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07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 223.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Jazz and Pelicans will be the first official game of the NBA’s restart, which takes place in the “bubble” of Orlando, FL. New Orleans seems to have been given a pretty manageable 8-game schedule, making it a possibility they could slip into the playoffs as an 8-seed in the West. Utah is in much better shape (they’re in 4th) and is just hoping for the best possible first round matchup. So much of tonight’s focus is on the Pelicans’ Zion Williamson tonight and whether or not he plays. As of this writing, he’s being called a “game-time decision.” While it would obviously hurt New Orleans if Williamson didn’t take the court, we think they will still find ways to score. Note that the Pelicans scored at least 120 points against the Jazz in all three meetings this year and none of those were with Williamson. Unfortunately, they also gave up an average of almost 130 points in those three contests, all of which went Over. New Orleans was allowing 117.0 points/game this year, which is the most of any team still playing. 10* on the OVER AAA |
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07-28-20 | Rockies v. A's OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Rockies didn’t do a ton of scoring in Texas during the 1st series of the young season. In fact, all three games stayed Under as they managed just eight runs total. But the bigger story was their pitching, which held the Rangers to only five runs. As a result, Colorado won two of the three games. That was a new stadium the Rockies were playing in and it remains to be seen if they can keep up that level of pitching prowess as they move to Oakland Tuesday. The A’s posted a 3-0 shutout here yesterday, making it a 3-1 start for them. The A’s bullpen was really good against the Angels, but may not be able to keep that up vs. a NL team playing with a DH. Daniel Mengden had a 4.94 ERA at home last year and only one of the five starts was a quality one. Colorado starter Senzatela may have bigger problems as his ERA was 7.29 away from home in 2019. We “smell” an Over here as neither pitching staff is likely to perform as well as they did over the weekend. 10* on OVER AAA |
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07-25-20 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER With no fans in attendance, the Astros don’t have to worry about being booed out of stadiums. Not that such a thing would have transpired yesterday. They were at home and beat the Seattle Mariners as expected, 8-2. The Astros went 18-1 against the Mariners this year so they’re expecting to sweep this first start of the season. Of course, they’ll be priced accordingly. So look at the total instead. Seattle has scored two or fewer runs 8 of the last 10 meetings with the ‘Stros. We can see that trend continuing here. Both runs yesterday came on solo home runs. On the other hand, Houston’s five-run inning that propelled them to victory last night likely won’t be replicated here. Lance McCullers will likely shut down the weak Mariners lineup while Seattle starter Taijuan Walker should pitch okay. Another issue for the Mariners last night was a sloppy defense. Assuming they clean up the fielding, the Astros won’t be getting as many chances at the plate.The Under is 13-5 the past 18 times when Seattle’s opponent scored 5 or more in its last game. 10* UNDER SEATTLE/HOUSTON AAA |
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07-24-20 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
PICK IS FOR TOMORROW'S GAME |
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07-02-20 | Liverpool v. Manchester City OVER 3 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Realistically, Man City was not going to catch Liverpool for the top spot in the Premier League. But last Thursday’s 2-1 loss to Chelsea (where we hit the Over 2.5) ensured this Thursday’s matchup would be rendered rather meaningless. Liverpool has now clinched its first outright title in 30 years. Man City is going to finish second. As we said in our analysis for the battle with Chelsea, Man City was bound to concede a goal or two after keeping FOUR consecutive clean sheets against lesser foes. Not surprising is that these are - by far - the two highest scoring teams in the EPL. Expecting a good number of goals here seems like a formality. In City’s last 15 competitions, they’ve scored in all but three. Liverpool has notched a goal in 11 of its last 15 matches including four times the last time out. Similar to what happened to Man City last week, Liverpool's streak of two straight clean sheets since the return from lockdown is due to end. These sides have a history of going Over including a 3-1 result the last time they met. 10* on the OVER. AAA |
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06-25-20 | Manchester City v. Chelsea OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 50 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Man City-Chelsea This top four battle Thursday night at Stamford Bridge features a pair of sides that have been flawless since the lockdown ended. Host Chelsea was victorious over Aston Villa 2-1 on Sunday as they are now without a loss in four straight Premier League matches. They are 4th in the table (51 pts), but just two points clear of 6th. So it is imperative they continue the recent trend of winning. Unfortunately Man City is paying a visit and the Reds are not only 2nd in the table (63 pts) but coming off a commanding 5-0 effort Monday against Burnley. Though they have zero chance of catching Liverpool for the top spot, Man City’s two showings since EPL play resumed showed they aren’t about to “phone it in” here. In addition to the clean sheet Monday, they also beat Arsenal 3-0 last Wednesday. Now 20-3-7 on the campaign, they’ve kept FOUR consecutive clean sheets going back to pre-lockdown. But don’t be surprised if they concede a goal Thursday. Chelsea has scored at least two goals in four straight EPL matches. At the same time, Man City is the highest scoring away team in the league. 10* OVER AAA |
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03-11-20 | Washington v. Arizona OVER 139 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Washington and Arizona were the Pac 12’s biggest underachievers for the 2019-20 season. Washington finished in last place with a 5-13 conference record and while Arizona ended up a more modest 5th in the standings, that was also well below expectations. This first round tournament matchup is a rematch from the last regular season game for each. Washington won 69-63 in Tucson, which was certainly an upset as the Huskies were 10-point underdogs. We expect this rematch to feature a lot more scoring - from both sides. Prior to upsetting Arizona, Washington’s last four games had all gone Over the total. They’d just scored 90 points in an upset of Arizona State two days prior to winning in Tucson. Arizona had scored 83 in its previous game. They also beat Washington 75-72 in Seattle back in January. What’s interesting about the two games vs. the Huskies is that Arizona made only 26 two-point baskets on 72 attempts. That’s 36%! You have to figure they’ll shoot better today. Play OVER Washington-Arizona AAA |
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03-09-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU OVER 145 | Top | 51-50 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER St. Mary’s and BYU split their two regular season meetings. Each won a close game at home. The rubber match takes place Monday night in Vegas. For two teams that have spent the season battling it out for “who’s #2?” in the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga obviously #1), a win here all but clinches a NCAA Tournament berth. Both teams ended the regular season at 24-7 overall. But BYU got the #2 spot by finishing 13-3 in conference play while St. Mary’s was 11-5. So St. Mary’s had to play an extra game to get to this tournament semifinal matchup. They beat Pepperdine 89-82 on Saturday. The Gaels last four games have all gone Over the total with them averaging more than 80 points/game. Both games vs. BYU also went Over with the final scores being 81-79 and 87-84. Look for another high scoring game tonight. All four times St. Mary’s has been an underdog this year, the Over has cashed. The Over is also 7-1 when they play on one or zero days rest. Play OVER St. Mary’s/BYU AAA |
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03-08-20 | Nebraska v. Minnesota UNDER 144.5 | Top | 75-107 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Minnesota has basically played its way OUT of NCAA Tournament contention. They’ve lost six of their last seven games including three straight close ones. Losses to Maryland, Wisconsin and Indiana have all been by five or less points. All three games also went Over. It’s good deal then for the Gophers that they are getting Nebraska in the regular season finale. The worst team in the Big 10, the Cornhuskers are 2-17 in conference games and have lost 15 in a row. The Under 7-1 in Minnesota games this season when the total is 140 to 149.5 and they are keeping teams below 65 points per game at home. Therefore, look for a total reversal of fortune for the Gophers today. Besides Nebraska, there’s only one other “bad” team in the Big 10 this year and that’s Northwestern who Minnesota recently kept to 57 points. All three home games where Minnesota was favored by 12.5 or more this year have stayed Under. Play UNDER Nebraska-Minnesota AAA |
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03-07-20 | Stanford v. Oregon UNDER 133.5 | Top | 67-80 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER A win tonight means Oregon finishes with no worse than a share of the Pac 12 title. At home they are favored to beat Stanford, but look for a low scoring game as the Cardinal are surprisingly one of the better defensive teams in all college basketball. They are 6th in efficiency. They give up 61.9 points per game but Oregon isn’t far behind allowing 64.2 at home. The Ducks lost 70-60 in Palo Alto back in January, a game where they were held to a field goal percentage of only 32.8. Oregon had a huge scoring outburst Thursday vs. Cal (scored 90) but also held the Bears to just 56. Play UNDER Stanford-Oregon AAA |
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03-07-20 | Kings v. Blazers UNDER 231.5 | Top | 123-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Portland took a critical loss last night, 127-117 at Phoenix. They’d won two in a row before that to inch closer to Memphis, who is in 8th place in the West. The kicker is that the Grizzlies had already gotten blown out Friday (in Dallas) by the time the Blazers took the court last night. But the Blazers were completely embarrassed. They never led and were behind by as much as 26. Phoenix made 19 three-pointers as Aron Baynes had a career night. Look for a better defensive effort from the Blazers tonight. Sacramento has shot well in its last two games but has lost 12 straight times here in Portland. All three Kings road games this year that have had a total of at least 230 points have gone Under. So too will this game. Play UNDER Sacramento-Portland AAA |
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03-06-20 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 246.5 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the Under Two terrible defensive teams here, but that’s obviously factored into the total. Atlanta gave up 127 points in its last game, which was all the way back on Monday. But they only scored 88 so the game (with Memphis) stayed Under. Same for Washington its last game. They only scored 104 in a 21-point loss at Portland on Wednesday. This is one of the highest totals of the entire NBA season. The Under is 7-3 in Washington’s last 10 home games vs. teams that have losing road records. The Under is also 6-1 the last seven times they’ve hosted Atlanta. Play UNDER Atlanta-Washington AAA |
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03-05-20 | Portland v. Santa Clara UNDER 142 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is a first round game in the WCC Tournament. Both Portland and Santa Clara face a tall mountain to climb as they’ll have to win five times in six days to capture the championship, including needing to beat Gonzaga. Now that we’ve ditched that fantasy, let’s look at the actual matchup. Portland finished last in the WCC with a 1-15 record. They haven’t won a game since January 4th. They are terrible. Santa Clara is the 7-seed in the Tournament and just beat Portland 73-68 on Saturday. That game just finished Under. Look for this one to do the same as Saturday’s game saw the two teams combine to make 18 three-pointers. That won’t happen at a neutral site. Play UNDER Portland-Santa Clara AAA |
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03-04-20 | Georgetown v. Creighton UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-91 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Creighton was on a real roll before running into St. John’s on Sunday. We took the Johnnies in that one as they put up 91 points in a big-time upset. Creighton won’t be giving up nearly that many points tonight though. They are back in Omaha where they - on average - give up far less points per game. While their scoring also goes up, they happen to be facing a Georgetown team that has failed to crack 70 in three of its past four games. The Hoyas have lost all four as they most certainly won’t be joining the majority of the Big East in the NCAA Tournament, save for them winning the conference tourney. With so many players injured, we don’t look for Georgetown to do much offensively in this game. Creighton won’t have to either, which lends itself to a play on the Under. The Under is already 6-2 in Georgetown’s last eight road games. Play UNDER on Georgetown-Creighton AAA |
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03-02-20 | Avalanche v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER This looks to be one of the bigger NHL mismatches in recent memory. That’s not lost on the oddsmakers, who have basically made the money line “unplayable” from our perspective. But this game going Over seems like a safe bet, maybe even more so than Colorado winning. The Avalanche are on a season-high six game win streak right now. All six games have also gone Under thanks to the Avs allowing just eight goals total. That seems like an average that will prove difficult to sustain. The Red Wings, bad as they are, should be able to get at least two goals here. In fact, Colorado has given up exactly two goals in three straight games. But it’s very likely the Avalanche score more than just two goals here as Detroit is giving up 4.6 their last five games. For the season, the Wings allow almost four goals per game. Colorado averages nearly 4.0 and is one of the highest scoring teams in the league. This will be a higher scoring game than expected. Play OVER Colorado-Detroit AAA |
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03-01-20 | Colorado v. Stanford OVER 131.5 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER When these teams met in Boulder three weeks ago, the game flew Over with Colorado winning 81-74. Not only did the Buffaloes go 30 of 40 from the free throw line, they were 11 of 21 on three-pointers. In fact, they and Stanford combined to go 23 of 42 from three-point range. That was easily one of Stanford’s worst defensive games this season. While them getting to host the rematch will certainly lead to better play on that end, we look for this matchup to go Over again. It may not be as high-scoring as last time, but it doesn’t need to be. In fact, it doesn’t need to be close. The last one went Over by 25 points. Stanford has scored at least 70 points in its last three games with all of those being wins. Colorado just gave up 76 to a bad Cal team and that was at home. Stanford can really shoot the ball well. The Over is 4-0 the last four times they’ve been a home favorite. Play OVER Colorado-Stanford AAA |
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03-01-20 | Flyers v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Didn’t these teams just play? Yes they did! The Flyers won at home Friday, beating the Rangers 5-2. It was Philly’s fifth straight win as they are now second in the Metropolitan Division, one point ahead of Pittsburgh, who has lost its last six games. During their five-game win streak, the Flyers have averaged 4.4 goals per game. But make note that four of those games were played on home ice where the team is rather exceptional. Not that they are bad on the road, but you can expect them to score less here than they did Friday. The Rangers had been pretty hot too, also scoring well above their season scoring average. Friday marked just the second time they were held under three goals over the last three weeks. But take note the Under is 17-11 in Rangers home games if the total is 6.0 or higher. The recent Over streaks for both teams will prove too difficult to sustain. Play UNDER Flyers-Rangers AAA |
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02-29-20 | Arizona v. UCLA OVER 135.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER That UCLA is tied for the Pac 12 lead right now is rather stunning. The Bruins have won six in a row to get to 11-5 in conference play and 18-11 overall. This is a team that was basically “left for dead” coming into February. Unless they end up winning the Pac 12 Tournament, we’re not even sure they wind up making the NCAA Tournament. Arizona is considered a lot safer for the Big Dance right now, although they’ve lost two straight to fall 1.5 games behind UCLA and Oregon in the conference. This is a rematch of a game played on Feb 8, won by UCLA 65-52. That win is what began UCLA’s current roll. They held Arizona to just 25.4% shooting (in Tucson) as the Wildcats made just 9 of 36 two-point attempts. It was a similarly awful shooting night for Arizona in their last game as they lost 57-48 to USC. But they are 2-0 SU/ATS this year when they are off a game in which they got held to 60 points or less. Look for Arizona to regain its “shooting touch” tonight, but also for UCLA to keep its hot shooting going. Play OVER Arizona-UCLA AAA |
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02-29-20 | Nets v. Heat OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Brooklyn and Miami tangle Saturday night in South Beach and for both teams it’s the second night of a back to back. Any chance the Nets had of moving up in the Eastern Conference was basically dashed last week when it was announced Kyrie Irving would be out for the remainder of the season. Over the past five days, they’ve certainly played like a team that knows it has a limited ceiling. They’ve lost three times, giving up 115, 110 and 141 points. Last night had to be rock bottom as they gave up those 141 points to Atlanta. That they allowed one of the league’s worst three-point shooting teams to go 19 of 39 is not a good sign. Miami isn’t exactly playing good defense either. They’ve allowed an average of more than 120 points/game over the last six contests, all of which have gone Over. They did at least snap a two-game losing skid last night by beating Dallas 126-118. The Over is now 19-9 in Heat home games where they have gone 24-4 straight up. The Over is also 27-12 for Miami when they face a team that is allowing at least 106 points/game. Brooklyn allows 110.6 points/game and that number gets even worse on the road. Play OVER Brooklyn-Miami AAA |
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02-28-20 | Rangers v. Flyers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Both the Rangers and Flyers have been scoring a lot lately during respective red hot runs. The Rangers have won five in a row, the latest coming last night in 5-2 fashion at Montreal. That makes it 23 goals scored in five games. Not to be outdone, the Flyers have scored 17 goals in their last four games. While all that scoring might seem to indicate a high-scoring affair is all but assured tonight, we don’t think that’s the case at all. The Flyers just don’t give up many goals at home. They are allowing just 2.06 per game here and that’s the lowest average in the league for home games. The Rangers are 6-3-1 Under this season when playing in the second night of a back to back. This will also be the Rangers third game in four nights, all of them away from home, and they’re 7-1-1 Under the past nine times in that situation. Play UNDER Rangers-Flyers AAA |
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02-24-20 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 134.5 | Top | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Kansas is coming off its biggest win of the season as they won 64-61 at #1 Baylor on Saturday, thus avenging their only conference loss of the season. With #2 Gonzaga having also lost Saturday, expect the Jayhawks (winners of 12 in a row) to be the new #1 when this game vs. Oklahoma State tips off Monday. We played the Under in the Baylor game, which was a winner, and it’s back to playing the total tonight. Only this time we’re looking at the Over due to the opponent being so lax defensively. In our writeup for the Kansas-Baylor game, we went into great detail about just how good both teams are defensively. Well, Oklahoma State is not great defensively. One thing the Cowboys did to impress us though is score 86 points in a win over rival Oklahoma on Saturday. Kansas has scored 87 and 91 points in its last two home games. So all signs point to a high-scoring affair tonight on ESPN. The Jayhawks average 78.7 points/game in Lawrence and the Over has hit the previous three times OSU has been a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Play OVER Oklahoma St-Kansas AAA |
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02-24-20 | Senators v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The only NHL game on Monday offers up a wonderful opportunity to bet the Over in our eyes. Columbus’ last four games have all gone Over anyway with them surrendering 17 goals. Not only have the Blue Jackets lost all four, they’ve actually lost eight straight games. But as bad a shape as the Blue Jackets are in, Ottawa is even worse. The Senators have the third fewest points in the league and have dropped 9 of their last 12 games. Over their last five games, they’ve surrendered 19 goals. The last time Columbus and Ottawa met they combined for seven goals in a 4-3 Senators victory up in Canada. There were 68 shots on goal and all but one goal was scored with the teams at even strength. The Over has hit the last eight times Ottawa has faced a team from the Metropolitan Division. Play OVER Ottawa-Columbus AAA |
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02-23-20 | Pistons v. Blazers UNDER 225 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER A Detroit team that’s averaging less than 100 points over its past five games facing a Portland team playing without its leading scorer should result in an easy Under this evening. Damian Lillard was absolutely on fire for the Blazers before a groin injury put him on the shelf. Without him, the Blazers lost to New Orleans Friday night, though lack of offense really wasn’t the problem. But lack of offense has been a problem for the Pistons who are without their best player (Blake Griffin) as well. Again, it wasn’t really the offense that was the primary issue as Detroit lost 126-106 to Milwaukee Thursday night. But we should see both teams struggle to score in this one. The Under is 14-3 for the Pistons the last 17 times they allowed 125 or more points the previous game. So look for improved defense on their part. The Trail Blazers are 7-3 Under following a double digit loss at home. Play UNDER Detroit-Portland AAA |
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02-23-20 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 140 | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Temple is off a wild 93-89 win over UConn. Double overtime was needed to get the victory, which was the second time the Owls prevailed in OT in their last four games. Today they’ll head to East Carolina to face a team not making much noise in the American this year. The Pirates 4-10 conference record has them a loss away from being tied for last place with Tulane, a team that they’ve beaten twice. However, ECU has at least been competitive of late. In the last week, they’ve lost by only three to Cincinnati and by four to Memphis. So Temple should consider itself forewarned. What we expect here is a high-scoring affair. While recent Temple scores have been boosted by overtime, they can still pile up the points today. When they hosted East Carolina on Feb 1, they scored 76 points. The Pirates shot very poorly in that game and should improve on their percentages now that they get to play at home. They’ve scored at least 67 in three of the last four contests. Play OVER Temple-East Carolina AAA |
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02-22-20 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 129.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is the game Kansas has been waiting for. Back on January 11th, they lost at home to Baylor by a score of 67-55. Since then they’ve 11 straight wins, seven of those coming by double digits. But top-ranked Baylor isn’t going to roll over here either. The Bears have won 23 straight games. They’ve covered 17 of 25 ball games including 10 of 13 in conference play. Key to this game will be defense. These are two of the top three teams in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Kansas gives up 57.5 points/game on the road. Baylor gives up 56.2 points/game at home. The first game stayed Under by 10 points yet this O/U is just three points lower. Oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough. The Jayhawks’ OU record in Big 12 games is 9-1. With this game being so important, both teams will be playing lockdown defense. Play on UNDER KANSAS/BAYLOR AAA |
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02-21-20 | Princeton v. Harvard UNDER 142.5 | Top | 60-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Harvard trails Yale and Princeton by one game, so getting to host the latter is a big deal tonight. The Crimson won both games last week - 85-63 over Cornell and 77-63 over Columbia. Both were played right here at Lavietes Pavilion. Princeton also got to play twice at home last week, but they split the pair, losing to Yale while beating Brown. The Tigers did defeat the Crimson earlier this season 70-69 on what was a hot shooting night for them from distance (went 13 of 23 on three-pointers). That was the last Harvard game to stay Under as the last four have all gone Over. But Princeton won’t shoot as well this time around. Harvard defends exceptionally well when they’re at home, giving up just 59.4 points/game. Princeton is 6-0 Under this year in games where they came in with 5 or 6 days rest. That includes the two Friday games since Ivy League play started. Don’t forget Harvard is without top scorer Bryce Aiken as well. A lower scoring game than the first matchup, which we think this will be, makes for an easy call on the Under. Play UNDER Princeton-Harvard AAA |
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02-18-20 | Devils v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Stanley Cup Champs (St. Louis) have lost five straight games, turning the Central Division race into a tight three-way battle between them, Dallas and Colorado. All five Blues losses were to teams fighting to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. Tonight they’ll host a team from the Eastern Conference that is in last place in their own division and they are 4-0 against the previous two seasons. But New Jersey did beat Columbus in a shootout Sunday, so this may not be the “walk in the park” St. Louis is hoping for. What we’ll do is call for an Over as three of the Devils last four games have seen at least seven total goals scored. NJ has scored three or more goals in eight of its last 10 games and four or more six times. The Over is 11-5 in the Blues last 16 games and 4-1 this season if they were held to 1 goal or less in their most recent game. They lost 2-1 at Nashville Sunday. Play OVER New Jersey-St. Louis AAA |
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02-15-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky UNDER 136.5 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The SEC as a whole appears to be a bit overrated, but Kentucky still remains the king of this conference in our eyes. The 12th ranked Wildcats enter Saturday at 19-5 overall and 9-2 in SEC play, the latter record landing them in a first place tie with both LSU and Auburn for the time being. UK has won seven of eight with the only loss coming to Auburn and they’ve got a game at LSU on deck. Here they face an Ole Miss team that has covered six in a row. The Rebels are 4-2 in that same stretch, the only SU losses coming to … Auburn and LSU. Both Kentucky and Ole Miss faced double digit deficits in the first half Tuesday before coming back to win handily. We look for this to be somewhat of a low-scoring affair, mainly because Mississippi only averages 61.7 points/game on the road. Kentucky gives up only 62.9 points/game at home. The key then becomes how well the Rebels can defend. Seeing as how they’ve held the last five opponents to below 40% shooting, we think the answer is “well.” Six of the Rebels seven road games this year have stayed Under. Play UNDER Ole Miss/Kentucky AAA |
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02-14-20 | Canadiens v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Montreal has gone Under its last four games. Pittsburgh has gone Under its last three games. So recent trends are definitely on our side tonight for this play. In those last four games, Montreal has found the back of the net only eight times. Pittsburgh has scored just six times in its last three games, though two of those were against a Tampa Bay team that is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. It’s uncharacteristic to see the Penguins to score so little, but there are two things you should keep in mind. One is that they are 13-9 Under at home this year when the total is 6.0 or higher. The second is that they only allow 2.5 goals per game at home. Twice these teams have met this season. Each game saw only five total goals scored. The road team won both times. Pittsburgh won 3-2 in Montreal. Montreal won 4-1 here in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh’s power play is not what it once was. Play UNDER Montreal-Pittsburgh AAA |
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02-14-20 | Akron v. Central Michigan OVER 155 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Akron just notched a pretty big win, beating MAC-leading Bowling Green 74-59. That the Zips were a 6.5-point favorite for that contest should tell you who oddsmakers think is the best team in this conference. Tonight’s game is against a wounded Central Michigan team that has lost two in a row. Tuesday, the Chippewas lost 73-70 at home to Eastern Michigan. They were outscored 45-35 in the second half. It was a much different showing that what they turned in their own home win over Bowling Green where CMU finished with 92 points. Make no mistake about it - the Chippewas are one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They average 81.3 points/game, which is sixth most in the entire country. The offensive numbers at home are eye-popping. It’s a 90.3 point/game average here. That’s enough to convince us that Over is the correct call here. Akron isn’t going to match the defensive efforts from its last two games. But they should hit their 76.0 point/game average. Play OVER Akron/Central Michigan AAA |
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02-09-20 | Butler v. Marquette UNDER 142 | Top | 57-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Playing on FS-1 was kind to #19 Butler on Wednesday as they beat #10 Villanova at the buzzer 79-76. They are hoping history repeats itself Sunday when they travel to face a well-rested Marquette team that’s 11-1 at home and been off for eight days. The last time Marquette played, they came from behind to defeat last place DePaul 76-72. They’ll obviously take the win, but it ended a 5-game ATS streak as they were 7.5-point favorites. When these teams met last month at Hinkle Fieldhouse, it was an 89-85 Butler win. Marquette hoisted 38 three-pointers and made 16 of them. But it still wasn’t enough. We look for the rematch to be a lot lower scoring. It must be noted that the first meeting did go to overtime. It was 71-71 at the end of regulation. Both teams are solid defensively as Marquette gives up only 63.8 points/game at home while Butler gives up just 60.6 points/game period. The Under is 4-1 in the five games so far where Butler has been an underdog. Play UNDER Butler-Marquette AAA |
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02-08-20 | UCLA v. Arizona UNDER 138 | Top | 65-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-08-20 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 222.5 | Top | 118-119 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Somehow, some way Toronto keeps winning. They ran their win streak to 13 in a row by defeating Indiana last night by a score of 115-106. They did so despite losing Kyle Lowry to an injury. Lowry isn’t likely to play tonight, which means the Raptors are going to be without three members of the starting five. Brooklyn isn’t going to have Kyrie Irving for this game either. What they hope to have is the same kind of defense that led them to convincing wins against Phoenix and Golden State earlier this week. Both games saw the Nets allow fewer than 100 points. They held Golden State to 88. Toronto is no slouch defensively in its own right. In fact, they are the #1 team in the league in defensive efficiency. That’s played a major role in how they keep winning despite all these injuries. On the second night of back to back, we just don’t see the Raptors scoring a ton of points. Same with the Nets, who are without Irving and 9-2 Under when off a double digit win. Play UNDER Brooklyn-Toronto AAA |
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02-07-20 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 234.5 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Second time in a week that the Hawks and Celtics are playing. If unaware of who won the first time, you’d probably guess the Celtics. You would be correct. They prevailed 123-115 and both teams shot 50% from the floor. This time around though, a stunning number of key players from both sides are likely to be sitting on the bench. Trae Young is probable despite being bothered by an ankle injury. As for the rest of the Hawks roster, it will look vastly different from the last time they played Boston due to a bevy of trades. Four of Boston’s five starters are on the injury report here. This total is just too high for two potential skeleton crews to go Over. The Under is 6-2 in the Celtics last eight games (win over Atlanta being one of the two Overs). This time expect a lower-scoring affair. Play UNDER Atlanta-Boston AAA |
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02-07-20 | Sabres v. Rangers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER For the second consecutive season, the Sabres are fading fast after a strong start. Since opening 2019-20 at 9-2-1 SU, they have lost two-thirds of their games including five out of the last six. They haven’t done much scoring since the All Star Break either. Were it not for a game-tying goal near the end of regulation last night, that would have been six straight games finishing with two goals or less. They ended up losing 4-3 in OT, at home, to the worst team in the league (Detroit). Tonight Buffalo takes on a Rangers team that’s also on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. NY’s last two games have both ended up 5-3 with them winning one and losing one. The win was Wednesday vs. Toronto. We like this game to go Under. Buffalo’s scoring woes aren’t confined to recent times as they average just 2.5 goals/game on the road. The Under is 8-3 the L11 times they have played with zero days rest. The Rangers have allowed more than three goals only two times in the last seven games. Even more encouraging is how few shots they’ve allowed the last five games (average of 25.4/game). Play on UNDER Buffalo/NY Rangers AAA |
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02-05-20 | Wake Forest v. Louisville OVER 142 | Top | 76-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Louisville is ranked #5 in the new polls, the highest ranking for any ACC team. That makes sense as the Cardinals are the first place team in the ACC with a 10-1 record. They’ve won eight straight games and five of those were on the road. Hosting Wake Forest tonight should lead to another win. But the Demon Deacons are getting a lot of points. So let’s instead focus on the fact all but one of WF’s 11 ACC games have gone Over the total. The “one” was the last game they played, a 56-44 win against Clemson, an awful shooting night for both sides. Look for Louisville to put up plenty of points here. Two of Wake’s last three road games have seen them give up 90. Wake should score at least 65 here, making the Over an easy call here. Play OVER Wake Forest-Louisville AAA |
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02-05-20 | Hawks v. Wolves OVER 236.5 | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Expect the scoreboard operator to be busy in this one as neither Atlanta nor Minnesota plays much defense. When the Hawks hit the road, they allow an average of 122 points/game. There’s only one team in the entire league giving up more points than Atlanta this year and while it’s not Minnesota (it’s Washington), the Timberwolves certainly give up their fair share of points (115.3 points/game). By the way, the T’wolves have lost their last 12 games! During that losing streak, there have been only two games where they didn’t give up at least 113. If they are to snap said streak, it will be by outscoring Atlanta. Fortunately for them, that may not be too difficult. The Over is 5-1 in the Hawks past six games as they’ve allowed at least 117 every time and 130+ three times. When these teams met in Atlanta back in November, it was a 125-113 win for the Timberwolves. The Hawks are 13-4 Over when seeking revenge for a home loss. Play OVER Atlanta-Minnesota AAA |
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02-03-20 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 213 | Top | 106-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The way things are looking now, this could be a first round playoff series. Miami has definitely been a little lucky this season as they have gone 8-0 in games that went to overtime. Really! Philadelphia, like Miami, is a dominant team at home but a little more suspect on the road. The Sixers and Heat have combined to go 43-5 straight up in home games but are also a combined 21-29 straight up on the road. It’s Philadelphia (9-17 SU) that really seems to struggle on the road, so this game being in Miami would seem to be a large edge for the Heat. Philly gives up 109.4 points/game on the road as opposed to 101.2 at home. Miami is up to 115.7 points/game at home. But we still feel more comfortable taking the Over than laying the points here. The Over is 28-19-1 in all Heat games including 15-9 at home. Philly’s last three games have all gone Over. Play OVER Philadelphia-Miami AAA |
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02-03-20 | North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 143 | Top | 59-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER North Carolina’s season-long struggles are well documented at this point. The Tar Heels, who just lost as 12-point favorites to Boston College on Saturday, are 10-11 overall and it would take a miracle run in the ACC Tournament for them to get into March Madness. But at least Cole Anthony is now back and he scored a team-high 26 in the 71-70 loss to BC. The struggles of UNC and some other ACC squads has resulted in a top-heavy conference in 2020 with three top 10 teams and no one else guaranteed to make the Big Dance. One of those top teams is Florida State, who did lose a game last week (61-56 at Virginia), but then quickly bounced back with a 74-63 win at Va Tech on Saturday. Both games last week were road games for the Seminoles. Back in Tallahassee we are likely to see more scoring from them tonight. They are averaging 82.8 points at home where they have won all 10 times. North Carolina averages a solid 71.5 points/game and now has Anthony back, but defense is their issue. Only two ACC opponents have been unable to hit 71 points on Roy Williams team. FSU has gone Over in four straight and the Over is 10-1 for them at home when the number is 140 to 149.5. Play OVER North Carolina-Florida State AAA |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 268 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Both Super Bowl participants have seen their defenses get the job done over multi-game stretches. San Francisco’s defense didn’t allow more than 20 points in any of its first seven games. Then came a rash of injuries, which in turn saw them allow more points per game over the second half of the season. But they got healthy again just in time for the playoffs - and just like we saw over those first seven games - they have been an elite group. They held the Vikings and Packers to just 30 points, pitching a shutout for a half in each game. They’d allowed just 10 points through six quarters before Green Bay put some “garbage time” points up. The 49ers rank second in yards allowed and are a top 10 scoring defense. But surprisingly, the Chiefs are also a top 10 scoring defense and allow just 18.0 points in road games. They held Tennessee and Houston to basically nothing after the first quarter of each playoff game. In the final six regular season games, the Chiefs held every opponent to 21 points or less. Play UNDER 49ers-Chiefs AAA |
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02-02-20 | Bulls v. Raptors OVER 217 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Toronto made it 10 straight wins on Friday. They won in Detroit 105-92 as a 3.5-point favorite. One more win and the Raptors tie the franchise’s longest win streak in history. They’ll have to go through Chicago Sunday. Odds are in the Raptors favor, but we don’t want to lay double digits with a side playing for a third time in four days. We are counting on plenty of points to be scored, however. The Bulls just allowed a season-high 133 in their last game, 54 of them coming from Kyrie Irving. It was the Bulls fourth straight time going Over as they scored 118 themselves. Toronto games - by in large - are much more high scoring at home. We’re looking at an average of 222.7 points/game as opposed to 214.0 on the road. The Over is also 6-0 the last six times the Raptors have been off an ATS win. Play OVER Chicago-Toronto AAA |
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02-02-20 | Penguins v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The NHL picked a good “spotlight” game for Super Sunday as the Capitals and Penguins meet for the 1st time this season. The Capitals have the most points in the league (75) and lead the Metropolitan Division. But the Penguins aren’t too far behind with 69 points. Both teams come in hot. Washington has won five out of its last six contests including 5-3 at Ottawa on Friday. Pittsburgh has won seven of its last nine. They also won Friday, 4-3 in overtime against Philadelphia. Alex Ovechkin, coming off two straight hat tricks, is chasing history Sunday as he nears 700 career goals and an 11th straight season with 40+. But Ovechkin may have to wait another day to achieve those marks. Because we’ve got this one staying Under. Pittsburgh is 12-4 the last 16 times they’ve faced a team off 5+ goal game. The Pens have also been held to two goals or less in three of the past five games. Washington cannot possibly maintain its 4.8 goal average from its past five games. Play UNDER Pittsburgh-Washington AAA |
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02-01-20 | Eastern Illinois v. Austin Peay UNDER 147.5 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Austin Peay has been nothing short of incredible since conference play began. The Governors have opened with nine consecutive wins over OVC teams and have covered the spread in all nine games. They are headed for an eventual showdown with Murray State, who also has a 9-0 conference record, but the two unbeatens won’t play until Feb 13. Not only is Austin Peay unbeaten in conference play, they also have a 10-0 record at home, which is where they’ll be Saturday vs. Eastern Illinois. The visiting Panthers are five games off the pace set by Austin Peay and Murray State in the OVC and just lost to Murray State two nights ago, 73-70. They did easily cover the 11-point spread though in a game effort. The loss snapped a four-game win streak. We’re going Under in today’s matchup as Austin Peay just held its last opponent (SIU Edwardsville) to 58 points and Eastern Illinois tends to not do much scoring on the road. EIU is 6-1 Under this season playing with one or zero days rest and their last two games both went Under. Play UNDER Eastern Illinois/Austin Peay AAA |
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01-30-20 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Cleveland State UNDER 144 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER IUPUI and Cleveland State are at the bottom of the Horizon League. IUPUI’s 89-85 win against Oakland on Saturday required overtime and was just their second conference win of the year. The only Horizon League game the Jaguars were favored to win, they lost, and that was against Cleveland State on December 30th. The Vikings won that game 82-80 on a buzzer beater, but look for the rematch to feature a lot less scoring. The Under is 5-0-1 in Cleveland State’s past six games and they just held Milwaukee to 53 points in a win Saturday. The Under is also 6-0 this season for them when the total is 140 to 149.5. This is also an offensively challenged team that averages only 63.4 PPG. In that December 30th meeting, both sides shot north of 50 percent, something we don’t see taking place this time around. Play UNDER IUPUI-Cleveland State AAA |
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01-28-20 | Senators v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Senators suffered a pretty painful loss last night, losing 4-3 in a shootout to New Jersey. None of Ottawa’s goals came at even strength as one was via the power play and two came shorthanded. Scoring twice when down a man is exceedingly rare for one game, so don’t look for that to happen again anytime soon. The Senators aren’t a very high scoring team to begin with as they only average 2.3 goals per game on the road. Buffalo will begin its second half tonight looking to bounce back from a 2-1 defeat to Nashville in their last game. The Sabres are 7-2 Under when off a game where they scored 1 or 0 goals. On the flip side, they have allowed just six goals in the last four games. So it should be a low-scoring affair tonight in upstate NY. Both previous meetings this season have stayed Under the total. Play UNDER Ottawa-Buffalo AAA |
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01-28-20 | Knicks v. Hornets OVER 209 | Top | 92-97 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Knicks have inexplicably caught fire at the betting window, covering five straight games with the most recent being a 110-97 SU win over Brooklyn. During the 5-game ATS win streak, they’ve allowed 100 points or less four different times. The Under is 6-1 their last seven games. Here they’ll travel to Charlotte to face a Hornets team that is 5-1 Under its last six games. Speaking of travel, the Hornets are back from Paris where they lost 116-103 to Milwaukee. Here in the States, they’ve been held below 100 four of the last five games. By the way, they’re also on an eight-game losing streak and 2-14 their last 16 games. Despite both teams recent rash of low-scoring affairs, we look for this one to go Over the total. Over the course of the season, neither team has played consistently good defense. The Over is 18-6-2 the previous 26 meetings and 4-1 the last five times the Knicks have been a road underdog. The Hornets are 14-4 Over the last 18 games vs. teams that have losing records. Play OVER NY-Charlotte AAA |
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01-25-20 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 140.5 | Top | 61-77 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER It’s been a pretty disappointing season for Utah State. Like everyone else in the Mountain West, they are left staring up at San Diego State, the only team in the country still undefeated. The MWC had belonged to Utah State the last couple seasons, but they’ve been upset four different times in 2019-20, leaving them with a 15-6 overall record. But at home the Aggies are still pretty lethal. They average 86.4 points/game in Logan where they’ve lost only one time and that was to San Diego State. Scoring on Colorado State shouldn’t prove too difficult tonight, but defending the Rams is a whole different matter. CSU has won five straight games and averaged 86.4 points/game in doing so. They just dropped 86 on Fresno State Wednesday night. The two times these schools met last year, the final scores were 87-72 and 100-96 (both Utah State wins). This is going to be another track meet. Play OVER Colorado State-Utah State AAA |
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01-25-20 | Lakers v. 76ers OVER 216.5 | Top | 91-108 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Lakers head to Philadelphia having gone 12-2 the last 14 games. A road trip that began last Saturday in Houston wraps up tonight against a team that has won 20 of its 22 home games. But the Sixers are coming off a loss here as they could only score 95 points at Toronto Wednesday night. They should score a lot more tonight as they average 111.4 points/game at home and the Over is 8-3 when they are off an ATS loss. The Over is also 7-2 their last nine home games. Of course, the Sixers also figure to be challenged defensively in this game. The Lakers are 7-1 Over their last eight games overall and 6-1 Over their last seven road games. The Over is also 6-0 the last six times LA has been off a win. Look for a high-scoring affair tonight on ABC. Play OVER Lakers-Sixers AAA |
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01-22-20 | Kings v. Pistons UNDER 222 | Top | 106-127 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The last five Sacramento games have all gone Over. The Kings have also lost all five games. Tonight they are in Detroit to play a Pistons team that hasn’t exactly been tearing it up lately either. The Pistons have just five wins in the last 18 games and most recently lost to struggling Washington 106-100. With two struggling teams facing each other here, we’re going to go with the Under. Yes, this flies in the face of the Kings recent results, but this is a high total for them. Their games only average 216.9 points total. Detroit is a little higher, but only at 219.6. The Pistons are missing a ton of key scorers from their lineup right now. Note that because of a trade made yesterday, the Kings could be short-handed for tonight’s game. Sunday’s loss to Miami would have stayed Under if not for overtime. Play UNDER Kings-Pistons AAA |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 74 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Green Bay’s offense did next to nothing when it faced the San Francisco defense in the regular season. They were held to eight points, a pathetic 81 yards passing and just 2.8 yards per play. They’re bound to do better this time, but will the 49ers score 37 points again? Not likely. Since taking it on the chin from the 49ers, the Pack are an undefeated 6-0 and allowing just 15.7 points/game. San Francisco is giving up only 18.8 points/game (5th), GB isn’t far behind as it gives up just 19.8 points/game (9th). The Under is 5-1 the last six times GB has been an underdog. As it turns out, the regular season matchup between these two teams did stay Under a near identical total. The Packers were only three-point underdogs for that game. Including last week’s 27-10 win over Minnesota, the Under is 4-0 the 49ers past four playoff games. The Packers, as we predicted they would, went Over last week. But that was against a bad Seattle defense. Play UNDER Green Bay-San Francisco AAA |
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01-18-20 | Seton Hall v. St. John's OVER 142 | Top | 82-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER In case you hadn’t noticed yet, Seton Hall is a really good team. The #18 ranked team in the country just went to Butler and won 78-70. We had the Over in that game, which won by more than 20 points. For the Pirates, it was the seventh consecutive win and cover. They are certainly poised to make a jump in next week’s rankings providing they can take care of business here against St. John’s. It won’t be easy. But again we like the Over. St. John’s has its own seven-game streak coming into this game, only with the Under. Obviously, we look for that to end Saturday. The Johnnie’s are coming off a loss at Providence where they did not shoot well. But at home they average 79.5 points/game, a big reason why they have a 10-2 record here in NYC. Seton Hall averages 75.2 points/game, so this one shouldn’t have much trouble going Over. During their win streak, the Pirates have failed to score at least 74 points just once. Play OVER Seton Hall-St Johns AAA |
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01-16-20 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 214.5 | Top | 134-131 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Golden State hopes to avoid a 10-game losing streak tonight as it hosts Denver. Two nights ago, here at home, the Warriors lost by 27 against Dallas. It was the second straight game where they gave up over 120 points, but the fifth straight game that still went Under. The Nuggets went Under for a fourth straight time last night when they beat Charlotte 100-86. Look for these Under streaks to end tonight though. Golden State obviously isn’t playing good defense right now. Nor have they really played much defense in this lost, injury-riddled season that they are having. They are giving up 113.2 points/game. The Over is 25-11 the last 36 times Denver has played here. Facing a second game in two nights, the Nuggets may not be as focused as they usually are defensively. The Over is also 6-1 their last seven road games. Their last three games were all at home and they give up substantially more points when not in the Mile Hile City. It’s not like Denver games have been staying Under the total by many points eithers. Two of the last three were within three points of the number set by the oddsmakers. This one makes it Over. Play OVER Denver-Golden State AAA |
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01-16-20 | Charlotte v. Marshall OVER 132 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Marshall was going Over quite a bit at the start of the year. Through the first 11 games, the Over was 8-3. But since then, scoring has curtailed some with the Under hitting in four of the last five. Speaking of Unders, that’s the way Charlotte’s previous six games have all gone. But we look for a different type game Thursday in Conference USA. There has been some unusually poor shooting in Charlotte games recently. Both they and their opponents have shot below 39%. That’s pretty incredible and something unlikely to continue. Marshall is still scoring 77.3 points/game at home, so look for them to score more than Charlotte’s recent opponents have. The Thundering Herd are coming off a road loss to UAB where they scored 50 points and were held to 33.3%. A return to Huntington will get them going again. The Over is 15-8 for Charlotte in the 49ers previous 23 games with a total of 130 to 139.5. Play OVER Charlotte-Marshall AAA |
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01-15-20 | Raptors v. Thunder OVER 212.5 | Top | 130-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Oklahoma City is a team that everyone needs to start taking very seriously. In the L10 games, they are 8-2 straight up and 9-1 against the spread. They have won 12 of their last 15 games as well. Since 2020 began, the only teams to beat the Thunder are the Sixers and Lakers. Neither of those games were played here in OKC. Tonight the defending champs will come to town. The Raptors haven’t won back to back games since Christmas as they are just 4-6 their L10 games. But the good news for them is that Christmas was also the last time they lost two in a row. So off a 1-point loss to San Antonio Sunday, Toronto may not be a team you’d want to fade, especially seeing as they are getting points. It’s not that often that the Raptors are underdogs. They average 110 points/game. But Oklahoma City averages 113 points/game at home. The Over is 8-1 the last nine times the Thunder have been favored and its 6-0-1 the last seven times Toronto has taken on a team that has a winning straight up record. Play OVER Toronto-OKC AAA |
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01-15-20 | Seton Hall v. Butler OVER 125 | Top | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Good matchup tonight in the Big East with #5 Butler playing #18 Seton Hall on FS-1. Both squads have been cashing plenty of tickets this year as Butler is 11-4 ATS while Seton Hall is 12-4 ATS. Both have won their last six games straight up with Seton Hall covering all six times and Butler being 4-2 ATS with the two non-covers coming by a combined 2.5 points. Look for this game to go Over the total. While both teams are certainly capable of playing good defense, they don’t have any problems putting the ball in the hoop either. Seton Hall averages 75.1 points/game. Butler averages 68.8 points/game. You can look for Seton Hall to be the fifth team to top 60 points on the Butler defense. Meanwhile, Butler is shooting almost 48% from the floor for the season. The Over is 6-2-1 the last nine times Seton Hall has been the underdog. Play OVER Seton Hall-Butler AAA |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers OVER 46.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Seattle got here by beating Philadelphia 17-9 in the Wild Card Round. As per usual, the Seahawks hardly looked impressive in achieving victory. They won by beating a 40-year old backup (Josh McCown) that was called into emergency duty when Carson Wentz was knocked out by a dirty hit from Jadeveon Clowney. Nevertheless, the Seahawks offense did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last week. Say what you will about Seattle's resume, but Green Bay has rode the same good fortune to get here, typically winning "ugly" and close. The Packers defense did play well down the stretch, but is unlikely to hold the Seahawks to 17 points this week. Over the final five regular season games, Green Bay faced four of the worst quarterbacks in the league (Jones, Haskins, Trubisky and Blough). So that's why you saw the defensive numbers improve. By the same token, Seattle goes from facing a 40-year old that had zero time to prepare to a rested Aaron Rodgers. By the numbers, this wasn't your normal Rogers-esque season. But the Packers offense did average 6.4 YPP at home and is going against a defense that allows 6.2 YPP on the road. Worth mentioning that the Over is 10-1 in Seattle's last 11 games as a playoff underdog. The Over is also 5-1 in Green Bay's last six playoff games. Play OVER Seattle-Green Bay AAA |
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01-11-20 | Cavs v. Nuggets UNDER 215 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The Cavs last game should not have gone Over. The reason it did was because of overtime. They pulled out a 115-112 win in Detroit. While it was the fifth straight game they went Over, it was the only one that they were victorious in. Tonight that Over streak should end in Denver. The Nuggets just ended an Over streak of their own (of six games) in Wednesday’s win 107-106 win at Dallas. But make no mistake, this has been an Under team for the balance of the season. Before that Over streak started, two-thirds of all Nuggets games had stayed Under. They play great defense at home, allowing just 103.5 points/game. That’s something the Cavs can’t overcome. The Cavs only average 103.3 points/game at home. Play UNDER Cleveland-Denver AAA |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens UNDER 47 | Top | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is a late add to our Saturday NFL Playoff card as we’ve been monitoring the total all week and like where the number is now. Going into Foxboro and winning a playoff game is definitely impressive. But the Titans didn’t do much offensively. Ryan Tannehill passed for only 71 yards, a number which isn’t going to win you many games. The running game was much more successful (201 yards), but gaining that kind of yardage against the Ravens is just not likely. Baltimore’s opponents gained an average of just 93 yards/game on the ground in the regular season, doing so at only 4.3 yards/carry. Remember the Titans had only 14 points last week before a late INT return for a TD. If Tennessee is to have any chance in this game, it will be because of a defense that allows 17.2 points/game on the road. They won’t hold the Ravens that low, but combined we don’t see both teams exceeding the number here. The Under is 6-1 in Tennessee’s last seven playoff games and a perfect 6-0 the Ravens last six playoff home games. Play UNDER Tennessee-Baltimore AAA |
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01-11-20 | Bulls v. Pistons UNDER 217 | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER So Detroit just split a home and home with the Cavs. Both results were a bit misleading in our opinion. They won 115-113 in Cleveland despite trailing by double digits for most of the game. Then the rematch in Detroit was a painful result for those (like us) that had the Under as the game wound up going to overtime. Cleveland won 115-112, a game that really had no business going Over. It was tied 102-102 at the end of regulation, well below the total of 220.5. Part of the problem for Detroit is that they are missing three of their top five scorers. Luke Kennard hasn’t played since December 21st while Blake Griffin is going to be out for a long-time. Markieff Morris is out as well. The scoring burden has fallen onto Andre Drummond and Derrick Rose and we just can’t see them continuing to carry the load. So look for lower scoring efforts from the Pistons moving forward. As for Chicago, they just got blitzed last night by Indiana, who shot 57%. It was the fourth straight Bulls game to go Over. But Detroit isn’t going to shoot as well as Indiana did last night nor Chicago’s other recent opponents. The Bulls have injuries as well, limiting what they can do offensively. Five of the last six games, they’ve scored less than 109 points. An interesting trend is that Chicago is 4-1 Under the last five times their starters combined for 160+ minutes the previous day. They combined for 165 last night. Play UNDER Chicago-Detroit AAA |
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01-10-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 231.5 | Top | 121-134 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 10* play on UNDER As recently as a year ago, a total this high would have been unfathomable for a matchup between San Antonio and Memphis. But the Grizzlies can score now (112.6 points/game) while the Spurs don’t play defense like they used to (114.8 points/game allowed). Still, this is a really high total and we can’t see the game going Over, even with what we’ve seen recently from both sides. San Antonio just beat Milwaukee and Boston in consecutive games by scoring 126 and 129 points. But neither they nor Memphis, who has shot 51% or better in three straight games, are likely to continue the recent stretches of white hot shooting. Grizzlies games with a total of 230 or higher are 4-2 Under. There have just been too many Overs produced by both teams recently. Eventually the shooting has to cool down. San Antonio shot 55.2% against Boston in the last game. These are very difficult percentages to maintain so let’s take advantage of a high total. Play UNDER Spurs-Grizzlies AAA |
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01-09-20 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is an immediate rematch of a game played Tuesday night, won by the Pistons, in Cleveland. It was a 115-113 final that saw Detroit rally from an 11-point fourth quarter deficit. We think this one will be lower scoring. The Pistons are coming off a six-game road trip and are likely to struggle offensively as many teams do in the first game back at home after a long trip. Remember they don't have either Blake Griffin nor Reggie Jackson in the lineup. Markieff Morris is also being bothered by a foot injury. The Pistons have topped 110 points in consecutive games only one time since December 18th. As for Cleveland, it's time for their four-game Over streak to end. They are averaging just 102.6 points/game on the road. Injuries (as well as the flu) have also taken a toll on this Cavs roster. Larry Nance Jr and Kevin Porter Jr are both definitely out. Two teams that just don't have many scoring options at their disposal won't be able to get this one Over. Play UNDER Cleveland-Detroit AAA |
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01-08-20 | Capitals v. Flyers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After a brief rough stretch at the end of 2019, Washington has gotten back to winning. They've started the new year 3-0 and scored 15 goals in the process. Tonight they take on a team that's no stranger to scoring itself. The only problem for Philadelphia is that it's been their opponents doing most of the scoring. In a four-game losing streak, the Flyers have given up 21 goals. At the same time, they've scored 13 themselves, which is actually not a bad number. Overall, the Capitals have gone Over in five straight while the Flyers are 4-0 Over those last four games. So that's nine straight Overs. But we're taking a different tact for this one as all this goal scoring is unlikely to continue. Those four losses for Philly were all on the road. At home they're giving up just 2.1 goals/game, which is one of the lowest marks in the league. The last two teams Washington beat (San Jose, Ottawa) are both not having good seasons, so this should be more of a struggle. This is the second game of a back to back for both teams, so we could be dealing with some tired skaters. The Under is 18-7-2 in Flyers games if they went to overtime the previous night. Play UNDER Washington-Philadelphia AAA |
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01-08-20 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 207.5 | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Toronto took a 101-99 loss to Portland last night, keeping them in 4th place in the Eastern Conference. That was at home, now they head out on the road to face Charlotte. It's been a struggle for the Raptors of late with them dropping five of the last eight games. In each of the last three, they've failed to score 100 points. But look for them to rediscover their "lost" shooting touch tonight against a Hornets team that's permitting 111 points/game. The last three Charlotte games have all gone Over as have six of the last seven Toronto-Charlotte matchups. Earlier this year, the Raptors hung 132 on the Hornets in a blowout up in Canada. They probably won't score that many tonight, but they'll definitely score enough to help send the game Over the total. The total for that first matchup was several points higher than it is here. The only other time this season Toronto has had to go home --> away with no rest in between, they gave up 120 points. Charlotte has gotten 29 points/game from guard Terry Rozier the last three games. Play OVER Toronto-Charlotte AAA |
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01-05-20 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Chicago is coming off a three-game road trip, which ended with a 7-5 loss in Vancouver. They'd won the first two games of the trip as well as six of their previous eight. Meanwhile, Detroit continues to be terrible as they lost 4-1 in Dallas on Friday night. We had the Under in that one, our top NHL total bet for the week. The Red Wings were coming off a rare win heading into that game - 2-0 against San Jose - but had lost six in a row before that. They've got the least points in the league right now (23) and it's not even close. Consider Chicago is also a last place team, but they have 42 points. The team with the next fewest points is New Jersey with 36. While the Red Wings have given up the most goals (161), they've also scored the fewest. While its somewhat concerning to see that the Blackhawks have given up 7 goals in their last two defeats, they're probably not losing here. They've held the opponent to three goals or less in each of the last six wins. The Under is 5-1 Detroit's past six road games and 3-0 the last three games overall. Play UNDER Detroit-Chicago AAA |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 49.5 | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The 13-3 Saints host the 10-6 Vikings on Wild Card Weekend. Because of Drew Brees, New Orleans will always be known for their offense. But it has been a much improved defense that has helped guide them to back to back 13-win seasons. The Saints gave up an average of just 21.3 points/game this season. They'll need that defense to show up on Sunday because the Vikings actually allowed a fewer number of points per contest, coming in at 18.9. There are some incredible trends supporting the Under in this one. For starters, Minnesota has gone Under in its last five Wild Card games. They've also gone Under 15 of the past 22 times they've been an underdog. But the most eye-opening trend of all is that the last seven NFL Wild Card games with a spread of seven points or more have all stayed Under! We certainly don't expect Vikings QB Kirk Cousins to play well in this spot. So don't go expecting many points from the underdog. At the same time, Minnesota's defense can keep them in the game. Look for the defenses to rule the day and this one to go Under. Play UNDER Minnesota-New Orleans AAA |
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01-04-20 | Spurs v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 118-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Milwaukee leads the league in scoring at 119.4 points/game, so we need not be concerned about them scoring tonight. Especially since San Antonio is no longer the same defensive "stalwart" we've been accustomed to seeing under Greg Popovich. This edition of the Spurs might be the worst Pop has had, at least defensively, as they are giving up 114.8 points/game. They've been at or below that average the last five games, but most of those were against not great offensive teams (they played Dallas without Doncic). Obviously, none of those teams score as much as the Bucks do. It was an "off-shooting night" for Milwaukee in its last game, a 106-104 win at Minnesota. Despite Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring 32 points, the team shot just 42.6% and missed 27 of its 36 three-point attempts. That's bad news for San Antonio because you have to think the Bucks will be a lot sharper at home. The Spurs are 9-2 Over this season in non-conference games. Play OVER San Antonio-Milwaukee AAA |
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01-03-20 | Ohio v. Nevada UNDER 60 | Top | 30-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Nevada got hit with multiple suspensions for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against Ohio, most of them on the defensive side of the ball. Four are defensive starters and three players will miss the entire game while LB Sewell must sit for the first half. These suspensions came about due to a fight with UNLV in the last regular season game. It's not just different players that coach Jay Norvell is being forced to turn to on that side of the ball. Essentially, it's an entirely new staff on the defensive side of the ball coaching this game. Virtually all were let go after losing to UNLV. But throughout this bowl season, we've seen replacements "step up" when needed. This total has gotten too high not to go Under. Some of that has to do with what Ohio did in its last two regular season games when they dropped a total of 118 points on Bowling Green and Akron. But those are two of the worst teams in the country. Nevada's offense only averages 21.3 points/game, which could be a bigger problem than the defense. They averaged just 18.0 points/game outside of Reno. The Under is 6-1 in the Wolf Pack's previous seven bowl appearances. Play UNDER Ohio-Nevada AAA |
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01-02-20 | Hornets v. Cavs OVER 212 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia OVER 41 | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER This total is too low. Even though we are still believers in Georgia's defense, it was shredded by LSU in the SEC Championship Game and that memory is difficult to shake. Baylor put up 35 points per game this year and was 10-0 against everyone but Oklahoma. QB Charlie Brewer, who exited the Big 12 Championship Game with a concussion, has been cleared to play to in the Sugar Bowl. We obviously need not worry about whether or not the Bears will be motivated. This is their first Sugar Bowl since 1957 and what a transformation it has been in just two seasons under coach Matt Rhule, who is sticking around in Waco despite all the NFL speculation. Georgia may have some key players sitting this one out, but last year's Sugar Bowl loss to Texas still lingers and that will have them motivated this year as well. The Over is 4-1 in Baylor's past five bowl games. Play OVER Baylor-Georgia AAA |
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01-01-20 | Predators v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Winter Classic moves down to Dallas for the very first time as the Stars host the Preds at the Cotton Bowl. The unique environment of being outdoors always makes this game difficult to handicap. But with the Stars already such an "Under team," that's the way we're going to play this one. Dallas has given up the fewest goals in the Western Conference and second fewest overall in the league. They had a bit of a rough stretch prior to Christmas, but have since gotten back on track with back to backs over Dallas and Arizona. They allows just four goals total in the two wins. The Under is 25-14-1 in all Stars games this season, including 16-5 when they are the home team. Nashville has been quite the opposite and was just torched for 11 goals in losing both games of a home and home against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Last time they met Dallas though, it was a 4-1 final (lost). The Predators will struggle to score again here and we don't see the Stars scoring too many goals either. Play UNDER Nashville-Dallas AAA |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn UNDER 54 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Minnesota was one of the biggest surprise teams in the country, starting 9-0 before losing two of its final three regular season games. But Auburn may be the best team they will have faced all season. The Gophers certainly haven't gone up against a better defense. Yes, Auburn gave up lots of yards and points in the Iron Bowl. But Minnesota doesn't have the same kind of offensive talent Alabama does. Before facing Bama, the Tigers hadn't allowed more than 24 points in a game all year. Minnesota did not finish with more than 19 points in either of its two losses. A lot of the Gophers success on offense this year came about because of its ability to convert on third down, which we feel they'll struggle to do in this game. So as long as Auburn's offense doesn't explode, we're looking at an easy Under in the Outback Bowl. That shouldn't happen as the Tigers don't average a ton of points outside of Jordan-Hare. Play UNDER in Minnesota-AUBURN AAA |
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12-31-19 | Blues v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER At this time last year, the Blues were languishing near the bottom of the standings. We know how things turned out - with them hoisting the first Stanley Cup in franchise history. This year, they've started much better as their 58 points leads the Central Division and they're on an eight-game win streak entering this game at Arizona. The Coyotes are not enjoying a great finish to the calendar year as they've lost three in row. But they're still tied for second place in what is shaping up to be a wide open Pacific Division. We like this game to stay Under. In the Western Conference, these teams are #2 and #3 in fewest goals allowed, behind only Dallas. The Blues have revenge for a 3-2 loss they suffered at home back in November. That situation (revenge for a loss at home) has produced a 3-0 Under mark for them this season. The Blues are allowing an average of 1.8 goals over the last five games. Arizona had a stunning third period vs. the Stars in their last game, giving up all four goals in the third period. They allowed only 25 shots in the game. Play UNDER St. Louis-Arizona AAA |
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12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens OVER 36.5 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER You probably don't need us to tell you that the Over is almost always a more popular bet than the Under. This goes for any sport, but especially football. Every week, in virtually every NFL game, there are more bettors taking the Over as opposed to the Under. But this Pittsburgh-Baltimore game is an extreme example of the opposite taking place. We're not sure if we've ever seen a game where the public was so excited to play the Under. Baltimore, who will be the #1 seed in the AFC and has nothing to play for, is resting its starters. Robert Griffin III will start at quarterback in place of Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh's last seven games have all gone Under, none of them seeing more than 40 points scored. Five have seen less than 30. But if you're not expecting effort in this game, well you're wrong. The Steelers have a chance to make the playoffs and John Harbaugh's approach to preseason games tells us he'll be coaching to win here as well. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Baltimore AAA |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State UNDER 63.5 | Top | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We've got the two longest winning streaks in all of the FBS on the line here as Clemson has won 28 straight games and Ohio State has won 19 in a row. But we also have two teams with top five scoring defenses. Clemson gives up just 10.6 points/game while again OSU isn't too far behind, allowing just 12.5. There is a pretty clear cut case to be made that neither defense has faced an offense as good as the one they'll be up against in this year's Fiesta Bowl. But this total still seems high to us. The Tigers haven't allowed more than 20 points in any game all season. Remember that they shut Ohio State out, 34-0, in the Playoff three years ago. That semifinal was played on this very field. The Buckeyes aren't going down that easy again and could very well win thanks to their defense which is considerably better than anything Clemson saw in the weak ACC. The Under is 4-0 in the Tigers' four previous semifinal appearances. The Under is also 4-1 in Ohio State's last five bowl games. Play UNDER Clemson-Ohio State AAA |
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12-27-19 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 224 | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Christmas Day seemed to be full of surprising results, none more so than Golden State's upset of Houston. The Warriors were double digit dogs in earning their third straight win and cover. Winning streaks of that nature were commonplace for this team that last several years, but that upset of the Rockets was just the eighth win for this edition of Golden State basketball. Injuries have wiped out what was once the premier team in the league. But they're obviously still fighting. Not sure if you can say the same for the Suns though and that's too bad. Phoenix spent the last several years occupying the space Golden State is currently inhabiting. A 7-4 start to this season seemed to show there was some promise on the horizon, but since then the Suns record is a lousy 4-15 and they've lost a season-high seven straight. Coming off the big win on Christmas, we don't want to touch the Warriors here. Nor do we want any part of the Suns. But with the teams allowing 115.5 and 113.0 points per game, we do like the Over. Phoenix is 8-5 Over as a favorite. Golden State allows more than 120 points per game against division opponents. Play OVER Phoenix-Golden State AAA |
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12-27-19 | Washington State v. Air Force UNDER 69 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The respective offenses in this game couldn't be more different. Washington State loves to pass. Air Force loves to run. Neither defense has seen an offense like the one they will see Friday night in the Cheez-It Bowl and this has created the expectation for a shootout. But we believe this total to be too high. Air Force has a pretty good defense and it's not like it doesn't face a lot of pass-happy offenses in the Mountain West. The Falcons give up 19.8 points/game and held Hawaii to 26 in Honolulu. No one scored more than 30 against them in the regular season. Now will Washington State's defense be sound enough for this game to stay Under? Most are going to say "no," but it will help if Air Force RB Timothy Jackson misses the game. Washington State could also be without one of its leading receivers. It would be crazy to think that this will be a low scoring game, but with a number this high, there is room for an Under. Washington State has not scored more than 28 points in any of its last four bowl games. Play UNDER Washington State-Air Force AAA |
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12-26-19 | Knicks v. Nets OVER 221.5 | Top | 94-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Neither of these teams were about to get featured on Christmas, but they get to face off the day after. The Knicks are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA as they are just 7-24 and getting outscored by more than nine points per game. They are tied with Orlando for the lowest scoring average at 103.5 points/game. Brooklyn is simply mediocre as they are seventh in the East with a 16-13 record. It's been pretty impressive how the Nets have managed to stay afloat despite a myriad of injuries. Kyrie Irving, Caris LeVert and Kevin Durant all remain out indefinitely. We like this game to go Over as there won't be much defense played. The Knicks have given up at least 120 points in four straight games. Seven of their last eight opponents have topped their season scoring averages. Brooklyn comes in averaging 111.7 points/game. They just scored 122 in their last game, which was all the way back on Saturday against the Hawks. Spencer Dinwiddie has been on fire for this team. Play OVER New York-Brooklyn AAA |
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12-25-19 | Clippers v. Lakers UNDER 222 | Top | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The NBA's marquee showdown on Christmas Day takes place in LA with the Clippers taking on the Lakers. Both teams are expected to be at full strength, which hasn't always been the case this year. But despite the Lakers recent slide and Kawhi Leonard's "load management" for the Clippers, these remain two of the best of the West. The Lakers had won 24 of their first 27 games before losing the last three. The Clippers have a near .800 win percentage when Leonard and George both play. We are expecting this game to be a little more "defensive-minded." The Under is 10-3 in Clippers games when they are facing a team with a winning record. The Lakers, playing without LeBron James, allowed a season high 128 points last game. The good news is that after the three games where they allowed 115 or more points this season, the next game has gone Under every time. Play UNDER Clippers-Lakers AAA |
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12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears OVER 44.5 | Top | 26-3 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We know that Kansas City is capable of putting up a lot of points. Chicago not as much, but the Bears offense has at least been better of late. They still put up over 400 yards in a 21-13 loss to Green Bay Sunday. Mitchell Trubisky threw for over 300 yards for the second time in three games. The offense is now averaging nearly six yards per play those last three weeks. It's not like the Chiefs defense is very good. Disregard last week's performance as it was in the snow against a rookie quarterback. The Chiefs still give up 357.8 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play for the season. Recently, they have faced some struggling offenses. Patrick Mahomes had no issues with the snow last week. He threw for 340 yards. There were a lot of long drives that ended with field goals in that Denver-KC game. The road still sees KC averaging over 30 points/game. This number is just too low not to try the Over. Four straight KC games have gone Under, which is rare. Play OVER Kansas City-Chicago AAA |
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12-21-19 | Clippers v. Spurs OVER 225 | Top | 134-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER A big difference for the Clippers when they're on the road is how many more points they allow. At home, they are giving up just 104.4 PPG, a very solid average. But on the road, the number of points per game allowed rises to 112.6. It's pretty common for a team, even a good one like the Clippers, to allow more points on the road. But the difference here is pretty noteworthy. It's one of the main reasons the team is 7-7 on the road and 14-2 at home. Tonight LA is in San Antonio to face the Spurs, who are looking to win for a sixth time in nine games. This isn't the "same old Spurs" defensively though. They give up 115 points/game, the highest average ever under Greg Popovich. This will be the third meeting of the year between the Clippers and Spurs. The first two were both pretty low-scoring, but we get the feeling that this one is going to see lots more offense. The Clippers just gave up 122 points in their last game (to Houston), which was at home. Play OVER LA Clippers-San Antonio AAA |
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12-20-19 | Knicks v. Heat UNDER 215 | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-19-19 | Stars v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Dallas is tied for third place in the Central Division, but you get the feeling they should be doing better than that. They rank second in the entire league in goals allowed (82) and have played three more games than the Islanders (who have given up only 80), so the Stars goals against average is actually the lowest in the league. The problem then obviously resides at the other end of the ice. Among Western Conference teams, only Anaheim has scored fewer goals. Sure enough, the last five Dallas games have all stayed Under the total. Tonight is a matchup with another underachieving team, Tampa Bay, who has gone from a record setting regular season last year to mediocrity this year. Right now, the Lightning wouldn't even be a playoff team, even though they have a goal differential that says they should be one. They still score lots of goals at home (3.9 per game) but they actually needed overtime to get by Ottawa. Look for this game to be played on "Dallas terms," meaning it'll be low-scoring. Play UNDER Dallas-Tampa Bay AAA |
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12-19-19 | Eastern Kentucky v. Marshall UNDER 158.5 | Top | 72-90 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Marshall hosts Eastern Kentucky Thursday night in a battle of teams on five-game streaks. Marshall has gone Over five straight times while Eastern Kentucky is 0-5 ATS its last five games. Let's concentrate on the former streak tonight. This is now the largest total for any Marshall game this season. Interestingly enough, only two of their 10 games played so far would have gone Over tonight's total. The Thundering Herd can probably count on their opponent not scoring much tonight. Eastern Kentucky has lost all six of its road games while averaging just over 60 points. This is the fourth straight road game for the Colonels. But at least this one isn't against Louisville, who dropped 99 points on them Saturday. Eastern Kentucky doesn't shoot the ball well at all as their FG% is below 40% for the season. It's at 31.9% on the road. Marshall is a poor three-point shooting team at 27.4%. Add it all up and you shouldn't see that much scoring tonight. Play UNDER Eastern Kentucky-Marshall AAA |
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12-17-19 | Hurricanes v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Winnipeg busted loose for seven goals on Sunday as they easily beat Philadelphia here at Bell MTS Place. Tonight they can expect a stiffer test from Carolina, who is off a shutout and won four of its last five. Like the Jets, the Hurricanes are definitely capable of a big offensive game. It was a 4-0 shutout of Calgary on Saturday and before that they had two games where they found the back of the net six times. But this will be their fourth straight road game, all of them in Western Canada. On the flip side, the Canes are allowing an average of just 1.6 goals during the 4-0-1 stretch. The one loss was 1-0 OT game at Vancouver. Winnipeg is a strong home team, so it won't be easy to score tonight. Only three teams have allowed less goals that Carolina this year. All are division leaders. Winnipeg isn't too far behind, ranking 7th in goals allowed. Play UNDER Carolina-Winnipeg AAA |
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12-17-19 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 222 | Top | 120-143 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Two of the NBA's worst teams meet Tuesday night in the Big Apple and that means plenty of points. Bad teams don't play good defense and both the Hawks and Knicks resemble that remark. Atlanta is allowing 117.8 points/game, second most in the Eastern Conference. On the road, they are allowing 124.1! In three of their last four road games, they've given up 136, 135 and 158 points! The Knicks join the Hawks in the bottom five teams in defensive efficiency as they let opponents shoot 38.5% from three-point land. New York had actually won two in a row before losing 111-105 to Denver Sunday. Atlanta's game vs. the Lakers on Sunday was far lower scoring than expected. But with two bad teams facing off, expect a wide open pace of play and little defense. The Over is 10-4 in Hawks road games. Play OVER Atlanta-New York AAA |
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12-16-19 | Colts v. Saints OVER 46.5 | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER A critical game for both teams, though that's for different reasons. The Saints are still in play for the NFC's top seed. They are tied with the 49ers, Seahawks and Packers, all of whom also have just three losses. The Colts have lost three in a row, blowing leads in every game, to fall to 6-7 and see their own playoff chances go on life support. The fact that Indy has only been beaten once by more than one score means we won't be laying points Monday night. But the Over is something we can get behind after the way both of these defenses played last week. The Colts gave up over 500 yards in a 38-35 loss to the Bucs, almost all of it coming through the air. That's good news for the Saints' Drew Brees, who threw for 349 in a losing effort last week. The reason New Orleans lost last week was because their defense was torched for 8.2 yards per play by the 49ers. That was right here at home too. Over the last seven weeks, the Saints have scored at least 31 points every game except when facing the Falcons (familiar opponent). The Colts have allowed 69 points the last two games. Play OVER Colts-Saints AAA |
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12-15-19 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 212.5 | Top | 100-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Golden State's fall from grace has been ugly. The three-time NBA champs are 5-22 this year and it would absolutely be fair to call them the worst team in the Western Conference. Just to further illustrate what we're dealing with here, the Warriors were underdogs in 23 of their first 24 games. That's more times being a dog than the previous two seasons combined! Sunday night marks the ninth time they will be a home dog this year. It's a division game with Sacramento, who certainly isn't complaining about what's going on in Oakland. But the Kings did just lose to the Knicks on Friday. We want no part of either side tonight, but like the Under as you've got two teams that are near the bottom of the league in scoring. It's the first meeting of the year. The Warriors are 11-3 Under against teams with losing records. The only time they've topped 105 points in the last 10 games was an overtime loss to the Knicks. Play UNDER Sacramento-Golden State AAA |
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12-14-19 | Thunder v. Nuggets OVER 205 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Denver has been the top Under team in the league so far with 18 of their 23 games staying below the number. There's a number of reasons for this, one of which is that they are near the bottom in number of possessions per game. They've also quietly become one of the league's top defensive teams, giving up just 101.6 points/game, which is tops in the league. But eventually the oddsmakers are going to catch up with them and tonight's total vs. OKC looks too low. The Thunder are 6-1 Under their last seven games, obviously contributing to the low total we have tonight. They've held three straight opponents below 100 points, but that's not something we see taking place here. When you look at the amount of scoring taking place around the league, this total sticks out like a sore thumb. Yesterday was the anniversary of the highest scoring game in league history (it involved Denver) and "in honor" of that, the Nuggets go Over. Play OVER OKC-DENVER AAA |
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12-14-19 | College of Charleston v. Richmond OVER 134 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Spiders of Richmond are 8-1 and have covered three straight, all as favorites. They've also gone Under in seven consecutive tries. That has led us to the lowest O/U for any Richmond game to date, a great time for us to spring into action. The opponent is College of Charleston, a team that has also seen its fair share of Unders so far, but two of their three Overs have come when the total is 135.5 points or lower. Richmond should not have much trouble scoring in this game. They are averaging 84.8 points/game at home and 79.6 points/game for the year. So we're counting on them holding up their end of the bargain. They've scored 75 in every game vs. a non-power conference foe. Both teams have held opponents to just over 40% shooting so far this year. Don't look for that to continue. Play OVER Charleston-Richmond AAA |
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12-13-19 | Hornets v. Bulls UNDER 214 | Top | 83-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is the second straight game where the Bulls are being asked to lay points. They covered Wednesday, easily beating Atlanta 136-102. The Bulls have been favored more times than you probably realize (13x) including five of the first six games of the season. But we're approaching them with some caution coming off such a uncharacteristically big win. Plus Charlotte has pulled two straight upsets, winning at Brooklyn and at home vs. Washington. What we see is this game staying Under. Chicago certainly won't be shooting as well as it did vs. Atlanta when it finished with a season-best 57.4 field goal percentage. It had been nearly a month since they even finished a game at 50%. Charlotte has gone 10 straight games without shooting 50%. The last time they did was actually against Chicago, but we don't see history repeating itself. The first two times these teams played this year, the games were high scoring. But this one just "reeks" of an "off-shooting night for both teams. Play UNDER Charlotte-Chicago AAA |
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12-13-19 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | Top | 127-114 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Bucks face the Grizzlies tonight and it should be an easy win. The pointspread does make things a little complicated as it falls pretty close to the average margin the Bucks are winning by on the road this year. Memphis is also in off two straight upset victories, though those came against Golden State and Phoenix. But the big news for this game concerns each team's best player. There's a chance neither Giannis Antetokounmpo nor Ja Morant may suit up. We know Morant has been ruled out due to his ongoing back issue. Antetokounmpo sat out Wednesday with a sore right quad. Either way, you can look for this game to stay Under. The Bucks are an elite defensive team that ranks #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. The last five games have seen them allow an average of just 99 points. Memphis is toward the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency and that's with Morant. The Grizzlies are 5-1 under this year after scoring 115 or more their last game. Play UNDER Milwaukee-Memphis AAA |
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12-11-19 | Pelicans v. Bucks UNDER 234.5 | Top | 112-127 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The potential for Milwaukee to score a lot of points tonight is definitely there. New Orleans gives up almost 120 points/game. Only Washington gives up more than that. But this will only be the third time that a Bucks home game has had a total of at least 230 points attached to it. The first two both stayed Under - by very comfortable margins. The most recent was last Friday's 119-91 win over the Clippers. That was followed with yet another Under, this one with a much lower number, against Orlando on Monday as the Bucks won 110-101. Often lost in all the success Milwaukee has had the last two regular seasons is that they have been the #1 team in defensive efficiency. They should have little difficulty shutting down this terrible Pelicans team tonight. New Orleans has lost nine in a row has been been held under 105 points in five of its last six. They've missed 59 of 70 three-point attempts the last two games. The Bucks have won 15 in a row, should have no problem getting to 16 here and will keep the Pelicans in check. Play UNDER New Orleans-Milwaukee AAA |
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