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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll go the contrarian route and call for a relatively high-scoring affair as the Patriots head to the Meadowlands to face the hapless Jets on Monday night. New England's offense has been laboring, largely due to QB Cam Newton's shakiness since returning to the field following his COVID diagnosis last month. The good news is, Newton is line for a big bounce-back performance here. The Jets defense has been virtually non-existent, having traded away most of its key pieces as the team continues to 'tank for Trevor', or at least that seems to be the case. We've seen the Pats ground game start to gain some traction and in this particular matchup they should feast against a putrid Jets front. So the question is whether New York can find enough offensive success to help this one 'over' the total. I believe it can. The Patriots defense has held up ok but is expected to be without its best player in CB Stephon Gilmore once again. Meanwhile, the Jets are getting healthier on offense with Sam Darnold's favorite target, WR Jamison Crowder, expected to return. Keep in mind, he had racked up over 100 receiving yards in three of four games before going down to injury earlier in the season. Things could potentially open up a bit for the New York offense here considering the Pats are giving up just shy of five yards per rush. While there's little reason to anticipate an offensive explosion from the Jets, we really don't need such a performance given this relatively low posted total. Even last week in a much tougher situation on the road against the Chiefs, New York did manage to orchestrate three first half scoring drives. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 48.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Colts blowout win in Detroit last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they return home to host the Ravens. Baltimore hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut that we saw a year ago, with teams doing a better job of containing QB Lamar Jackson's big-play ability. Here, Jackson draws a tough matchup against a Colts defense that has virtually eliminated opposing QB's ability to run the football. I'm not high enough on the Ravens pass-catching corps to call for a breakout performance against a quality Indy pass defense here either. With that being said, I wouldn't count on another huge offensive showing from the Colts offense. QB Philip Rivers has looked more like an elite quarterback than a game-manager in recent weeks, but should regress back into the latter role against a tough Ravens defense that obviously has a sour taste in its mouth following last week's loss to the Steelers. Few teams have gotten much done on the ground against Baltimore and I fully expect the Colts to join that group as well. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Broncos v. Falcons OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential - as do most games played at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta. The Broncos roared back from a big fourth quarter deficit to stun the Chargers on a last-second touchdown last Sunday and QB Drew Lock and co. find themselves in another favorable matchup against a porous Falcons defense here. No other team gives up more big plays (plays of 20+ yards) through the air than Atlanta. We've seen the Broncos offense involve into a more pass-heavy attack with the emergence of rookie WR's Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and TE Noah Fant. I don't expect Denver to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football a whole lot against a Falcons defense that has actually proven to be stout against the run, giving up under four yards per rush. On the flip side, the Falcons should go back to airing it out after a subpar performance in that regard in last week's victory in Carolina. While WR Calvin Ridley is sidelined, Julio Jones is more than capable of shouldering the load. It's also worth noting that the door is open for Todd Gurley to go off against a Broncos defense that has allowed well north of five yards per rush over the last couple of games, with key injuries on the defensive side of the football playing a role in that regression. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 50 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams totaled just 44 points in a Texans blowout win back on October 11th but I believe the potential is there for this one to be considerably higher-scoring. While the Jags will be without QB Gardner Minshew in this game, installing Jake Luton under center, I'm not sure it really matters. It's not as if Minshew was lighting the league on fire before he suffered a thumb injury. RB James Robinson has become the clear focal point of the Jags offense and he should enjoy plenty of success both on the ground (Houston is allowing a whopping 5.6 yards per rush this season) and in the short passing game. Meanwhile, the Texans offense is in line for a big breakout performance coming off their bye week, facing an undermanned Jags defense that has struggled all season long. QB DeShaun Watson has looked like a new man since the firing of head coach Bill O'Brien and should continue to thrive here against a Jags defense that doesn't apply any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The trade deadline passed earlier this week without Houston moving WR Will Fuller and that should be music to the ears of Watson. Even RB David Johnson, who has been a virtual non-factor for the Texans this season, could have a big day against a Jags defense that has been getting torched by opposing backs in recent weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total has been dropping since word broke that the 49ers would be without a number of key cogs on the offensive side of the football due to COVID-19 protocols. Of course, San Francisco was already going to be missing many other players due to injuries, including QB Jimmy Garroppolo, TE George Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel - the list goes on and on. I actually feel the total has shifted too low. The Packers offense should absolutely feast in this contest, even as that unit deals with key injuries of its own including one to RB Aaron Jones who I believe is unlikely to play again this week. QB Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed plenty of success this season and should pick apart an injury-ravaged 49ers defense that has shown no semblance of a pass rush here in 2020. On the flip side, the Packers defense is nothing special and has been repeatedly torched by opposing running games. The 49ers are depleted at the running back position, but should still be able to gain some traction against what is quite simply one of the league's worst run defenses. Look for RB Jerick McKinnon to step up in the absence of San Francisco's household names out of the backfield. Likewise, Niners QB Nick Mullens always seems to play with a chip on his shoulder and provided he can stay away from CB Jaire Alexander, he should be able to move the football and ultimately put points on the board for his squad. This may not be a true shootout, but I do expect it to find its way 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Colts v. Lions UNDER 50 | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure where all the points are going to come from in this game. Yes, the Colts should be able to move the football on the ground against a weak Lions run defense but can QB Philip Rivers move the ball consistently through the air? I envision a lot of long, clock-churning drives from the Colts here. Meanwhile, the Indy defense should feast on an average Lions offense. The Colts are giving up less than 3.5 yards per rush this season and are expected to get LB Darius Leonard back to boost their mid-level pass defense. This total has been set too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it as the Titans head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. After their comeback fell just short against the Steelers last Sunday (we won with Pittsburgh in that game), the Titans should explode against an awful Bengals defense here. Cincinnati isn't doing anything to slow opposing running games which opens the door for a big day from Titans RB Derrick Henry. Meanwhile, they're not applying nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to make Ryan Tannehill uncomfortable. Likewise, Tennessee can't seem to get to the quarterback, which should spell trouble as it lined up against a steadily-improving and confident rookie QB Joe Burrow. The Bengals by no means possess an elite offense, but they are running a ton of plays and should be able to expose a bad Titans defense here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 49 | 25-17 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'm shocked that we're able to play a total south of 50 points in this Thursday night divisional showdown. Perhaps I shouldn't be. After all, these two teams combined to score just 39 points in their meeting earlier this season, and that took place in the friendly dome confines of Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Here, I'm anticipating a shootout as neither defense brings any sort of confidence to the table and certainly doesn't match up well with the opposing offense. We've seen Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater really settle into his offense over the last several weeks and now he gets a smash spot against a Falcons defense that doesn't get after the quarterback and is only average in virtually every department. On the flip side, the Falcons offense should be able to 'let it fly' against an undermanned, struggling Panthers defense. Last Sunday in New Orleans, the Panthers got shredded by an inconsistent Drew Brees, allowing a 118.4 QB rating and sacking him just once. Falcons QB Matt Ryan should thrive in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for both offenses, even with the Cowboys having lost QB Dak Prescott for the season. The Cardinals are coming off a nice 'get right' matchup against the Jets and should be able to keep it rolling against a pitiful Cowboys defense here. Note that Dallas simply isn't getting after opposing quarterbacks which should help set up a clean pocket for capable Cardinals QB Kyler Murray on Monday night. Given that clean pocket there's little reason to expect anything other than a monster performance from Murray and his favorite target WR DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't stopping anyone from running the football which bodes well for the Cards backfield tandem of Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. While most are quick to write off the Cowboys offense, I believe they can keep playing fast and putting plenty of points on the board with veteran Andy Dalton under center. It's not as if the rest of the offensive cupboard is bare - the Cowboys are positively loaded all over the field, and particularly at wide receiver. Note that the Cards lost arguably their best defender in Chandler Jones to injury last week. Without Jones, I look for Dalton to navigate the very beatable Cards defense and help this one 'over' the posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Texans and Titans do battle on Sunday afternoon in Nashville. This is a big-time smash spot for Texans QB Deshaun Watson who looked relaxed and sharp without the specter of head coach Bill O'Brien hanging over him last week. Things should really open up for the Texans offense against a Titans defense that has allowed just under 5.6 yards per rush this season. Likewise, Houston's defense has also allowed well north of five yards per rush this season so it would come as no surprise if Titans RB Derrick Henry kept rolling here this week. Keep in mind, Houston will be without run-stopper Benardrick McKinney after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. Houston has offered no resistance against opposing passing games this season so this is also a green-light spot for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill who continues to be severely undervalued by most. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. |
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10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys have been an 'over' machine since their lower-scoring than expected season-opener against the Rams in Los Angeles and there's little reason to jump off the train here. The Giants offense has obviously struggled in the absence of RB Saquon Barkley but there's some reason for optimism as they face an absolutely putrid Cowboys offense on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should feast on a Giants defense that has yet to face an offense like that of Dallas this season. This Cowboys offense is on a record-setting pace and the G-Men will be hard-pressed to come up with answers. With that being said, the 'Boys are single-digit favorites (at the time of writing) for a reason and we could see a competitive game here. That lends itself to a high-scoring affair in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon as the suddenly red hot Panthers roll into town to face the Falcons. Carolina should continue to thrive offensively against a Falcons defense that proven stout against the run but simply can't stop the pass - which has essentially been par for the course in recent years. The Panthers boast an underrated stable of wide receivers led by Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore and should dominate an injury-riddled Falcons defense. Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense is also dealing with some injuries but is expected to have WR Calvin Ridley on the field on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers haven't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all so Falcons QB Matt Ryan should have a much easier time than we saw in Monday's ugly loss to the Packers. There's a big difference between facing the Pack at Lambeau Field and hosting the Panthers in the Dome. Even Todd Gurley and the Falcons backfield could have a day on Sunday against a Panthers defense that allows 4.6 yards per rush. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Bucs wild, high-scoring win over the Chargers last Sunday but did manage to cash the 'under' in the Bears blowout loss to the Colts. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as these two 3-1 teams do battle. Playing on a short week the Bucs are in tough with a number of key cogs banged up on offense. Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard have both shown some good chemistry with Tom Brady in the early going but now both are sidelined. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's backfield continues to deal with a number of injuries as well. Of course they'll be up against an above average Bears defense, on the road no less, on a short week. I have very little faith in the Nick Foles-led Bears offense right now and if you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I'm high on the Bucs defense. Note that Tampa Bay is giving up just 2.4 yards per rush this season and that really hamstrings a struggling Bears offense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's really no one all that imposing on the Chicago offense. This has the makings of a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers OVER 56.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Green Bay at 8:50 pm et on Monday. This is the being pegged as an explosive shootout by the oddsmakers and I tend to agree. The Falcons have to be in desperation mode at this point and they do draw a favorable matchup against a very beatable Packers defense. The strength of Atlanta is obviously in its offense and while Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are questionable to play I would bank on one, if not both of the Falcons offense stars suiting up. It may not even matter as Atlanta should find success moving the football on the ground as well with Green Bay having allowed north of five yards per rush this season. The Packers offense is red hot entering this matchup and should face little resistance from a non-existent Falcons defense. Note that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has absolutely eviscerated the Falcons lately, passing for over 1,000 yards, 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last four games against them. He loses WR Allen Lazard but should have superstar Davante Adams back on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While scoring is up across the league through the first three weeks of the season, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. The Colts should continue to pound away on the ground behind standout rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers has been relegated to 'game manager' status in the latter stages of his career and he should be firmly planted in that role against a solid Bears defense on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Chicago offense will turn to QB Nick Foles after he rallied the team to a come-from-behind win in Atlanta last Sunday. Don't count on another sharp performance from Foles here as he faces an above average but perhaps still underrated Colts defense. We won with the 'over' in the Bears victory over the Falcons last week, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bucs defense remains an underrated unit, perhaps overshadowed by the team's star-laden offense. Note that the Bucs run defense is allowing under three yards per rush this season. Here, I look for the Tampa Bay defense to dominate a struggling Chargers offense led by rookie QB Justin Herbert. Los Angeles' 2020 campaign pretty much got derailed before it started due to a number of key injuries on both sides of the football. Coming off a discouraging home loss to the Panthers last week there's little reason to anticipate a big bounce-back performance, particularly from the Chargers offense, here. Look for the Bucs to continue to pound away long, clock churning drives on their way to a third straight victory, helping cash 'under' tickets in the process. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Vikings v. Texans OVER 54.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings narrow 31-30 home loss to the Titans last week and I'll go right back to the well with the same play as Minnesota travels to face the reeling Texans on Sunday afternoon. This is another prime blow-up spot for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook as he faces a Houston defense that has been shredded for nearly six yards per rush this season. Even QB Kirk Cousins is set up for success given the Texans complete inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. On the flip side, the Texans finally catch a scheduling break here after a tough three-game slate to open the season (Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers). The Vikings defense is a shell of its former self due to injuries and offseason departures. Like the Houston defense, Minnesota hasn't been able to get to opposing quarterbacks and figures to struggle against big-time playmaker QB DeShaun Watson in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 43 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these two AFC bottom-feeders on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. Jacksonville got stymied by the Dolphins of all teams in last week's Thursday nighter. It's interesting that most had high hopes for the Jags Gardner Minshew-led offense heading into that game (myself included) but are now quick to write them off. I'm confident we'll see a big bounce-back performance from the Jags offense against a very beatable Bengals defense on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is set up well to open things up given Cincinnati has done little to slow opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 5.2 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense has plenty of upside with QB Joe Burrow moving the football consistently in an up-tempo attack. With Jacksonville showing some ability to shut down opposing running games, look for Burrow to take to the air and expose a very beatable Jags secondary in this one. While A.J. Green has been a virtual no-show, the rest of the Bengals receivers have been quietly performing well and building a nice rapport with the rookie Burrow. Look for continued progression from the Cincinnati offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Washington Football Team v. Browns UNDER 45 | 20-34 | Loss | -107 | 70 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Browns are going to have to show me a little more consistency before I start believing in their offense. They exploded against the Bengals last week but that shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Cincinnati boasts one of the league's weakest defenses and the game was played on a short week. Here, Cleveland will face a Washington defense that can get after the quarterback. The Washington offense got stuck in the mud last Sunday in Arizona, only managing a couple of late touchdown scores (and failed two-point conversions that cost us our 'over' ticket). The jury is still out on QB Dwayne Haskins. We did see Washington's offense put up some points in Week 1 but that was only thanks to their defense setting them up with short field after short field in the second half. I don't believe we'll see the Washington pass rush obliterate a solid Cleveland offensive line the way it did Philadelphia in that contest. Look for Baker Mayfield to take a backseat to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in this one as the Browns control the game flow and ultimately churn away the clock in a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Titans v. Vikings OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. When you think Titans and Vikings the first thing that comes to mind might not be 'shootout' but I believe that's precisely what we're in for on Sunday afternoon. It's desperation time for the Vikings after suffering back-to-back beatdowns at the hands of the Packers and Colts. The good news is this matchup could play right into their struggling offense's hands - or more specifically the legs of RB Dalvin Cook. The Titans have had a tough time stopping the run in the early going this season, allowing a whopping 5.15 yards per rush to enemy backs. Here, we can expect them to have their hands full stopping Cook, while also missing some key cogs in their secondary, improving the chances of WR Adam Thielen going off. On the flip side, the injury-plagued Vikings defense isn't likely to slow an underrated Titans offense. Without DE Danielle Hunter the Vikes haven't shown any semblance of a pass rush and a clean pocket should serve Ryan Tannehill well in this one. Meanwhile, RB Derrick Henry should find plenty of room to run against a Vikes front that will be without LB Anthony Barr. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 48 | 31-13 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a relatively high total for a reason in this one. I'm anticipating an entertaining Thursday night affair between the lowly Dolphins and Jaguars. Miami catches its most favorable matchup of the season to date after facing the Patriots and Bills in its first two contests. The Jaguars were assumed to be 'tanking' this season having ushered out virtually all of their defensive talent. I still consider Jacksonville to have one of the league's worst defenses, even if it has held up fairly well through two games. Keep in mind, the Jags have drawn the Colts and Titans - two very average offensive teams - in their first two games. They get a below average offense in the Dolphins on Thursday, but I actually feel Miami has some upside here - at least offensively. I don't expect Miami to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football against a Jags defense that has proven to be capable of stopping the run. Instead look for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to sling the football all over the field against a very beatable Jacksonville secondary. Of course, Jags QB Gardner Minshew isn't one to back down from a challenge. Look for him to rise to the occasion in this primetime affair as well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The two previous primetime games this week have both sailed 'over' the total. This is probably the game that most believed would have the most shootout potential of the three primetime affairs. I'm actually anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most. The Saints should be able to take away the Raiders offensive strength in this one and that's RB Josh Jacobs. New Orleans was able to stymie Tampa's ground attack a week ago while the Raiders torched a bottom-tier Panthers run defense. Here the Saints should be able to flip the script on Las Vegas. While the Raiders defense is average at best and would generally have its hands full with the likes of the Saints, here I actually feel they can find some success. New Orleans certainly didn't appear to be in midseason form offensively last Sunday and now has to deal with the absence of all-world WR Michael Thomas. While RB Alvin Kamara should get his in this one, I don't see this as a true smash spot for the Saints offense. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 48 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. While I do expect both offenses to have some success moving the football in this game, I also expect plenty of stalled drives, or drives resulting in field goals rather than touchdowns. The real key here is the Chargers offense and whether they can stay on the field long enough to keep Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes off of it. I believe they can. We saw last week that this Chargers offense will be a little different than the one we saw with Phillip Rivers at the helm. I do believe QB Tyrod Taylor can get out and run a little bit on this Chiefs defense, and I also like the Chargers stable of running backs led by Austin Ekeler and rookie Joshua Kelley. The problem for L.A. might be finishing drives with the Chiefs owning a considerable advantage in terms of their pass rush, and the potential of bull-rushing the Chargers o-line which will be missing its anchor, center Mike Pouncey. Look for the L.A. defense, even without a couple of key cogs, to do just enough to contain Mahomes and company to help keep this one 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals OVER 46.5 | 15-30 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a sneaky shootout in the late window of games on Sunday afternoon. We had a close eye on Washington last Sunday, cashing both the side and total in its upset win over Philadelphia. Here, I look for Washington find some continued success offensively with WR Terry McLaurin in line for a 2020 breakout game matched up against Patrick Peterson. While RB Antonio Gibson didn't get off to the start that most had hoped for, he should play a role against a beatable Cardinals run defense here. The Washington pass rush absolutely feasted on the Eagles decimated offensive line last Sunday. Here, I look for QB Kyler Murray to take advantage of Washington's aggressiveness in the pass rush to get out of the pocket and find his targets downfield if need be. WR DeAndre Hopkins showed tremendous chemistry with Murray in the opener and the duo should build on that performance here. Meanwhile, I consider the Cards to have one of the most underrated RB combos in the league in Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. Look for them to find plenty of open field in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Broncos v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll take a shot with the 'under', even with the low posted total in this one on Sunday afternoon. Both teams are playing on a short week following a unique training camp that included no preseason games. The Broncos are a lower-tier offensive team to begin with and are dealing with a number of key injuries, including those to key players WR Courtland Sutton and RB Philip Lindsay. I look for them to employ a rather conservative offense against an aggressive Steelers defense here. While the Broncos defense isn't what it once was, missing a number of key players from recent squads, it can still play well, as we saw this past Monday night against the Titans. In that contest, the Broncos held up well against one of the league's toughest running backs in Derrick Henry, allowing just 3.7 yards per rush. The Steelers offense has a lot of upside with a healthy Big Ben under center, but it may not have to keep its foot on the gas for four quarters in a projected one-sided affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | Top | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no question we're dealing with a high posted total in this one but it's high for a reason. I'm expecting a shootout. The Falcons draw a favorable matchup here, at least as far as their offense goes. The Cowboys only gave up 20 points in last week's loss to the Rams but the damage could have been much worse. Dallas is now even more undermanned after losing elite LB Leighton Vander Esch. Their secondary is a weak point, one that the Falcons should be able to take full advantage of. Even against a tough Seahawks pass defense last week, Falcons WR Julio Jones came up with 150+ yards receiving. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was under duress for much of the game against the Rams last week. We should see a different story unfold here, however, as the Falcons pass rush. While Atlanta has been tough against the run in recent years, it has had little success stopping the pass or containing opposing quarterbacks that can scramble. That plays right into the hands of Prescott and the up-tempo Cowboys offense, which should feast in its home-opener. After a relatively quiet opening week, look for the ultra-talented Dallas receiving corps to put up big numbers here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51 | 17-20 | Loss | -116 | 83 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. While I do lean to the Cowboys minus the points as well, I feel the 'over' is the better way to go in this Sunday night NFC showdown in Los Angeles. The Cowboys offense is well-positioned to get off to a tremendous start in this favorable matchup with the Rams. While Los Angeles has been considered an elite defensive team at times in recent years and boasts plenty of star power with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, it will need to replace a number of key cogs from last year's team and also has to adjust to a new system under new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. The Cowboys offense is obviously loaded with elite talent at all the skill positions. Defensively, the Cowboys pass rush could wreak havoc against an overmatched Rams offensive line. But even if QB Jared Goff is given a little bit of time in the pocket he should have no trouble exposing what I consider to be one of the league's weaker secondaries. Even without fans, at home in a brand new stadium I don't see the Rams getting embarrassed in this one, and neither team will shy away from a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Cardinals v. 49ers OVER 48 | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This total has been on the rise since opening, and rightfully so in my opinion. Arizona's offense is poised to take off here in year two of Kyler Murray's tenure as starting QB. The Cardinals made arguably the biggest offseason splash by acquiring WR DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans and I expect him to have a positive impact right out of the gates, even after dealing with injury issues this summer. Speaking of injuries, the 49ers defense was also forced to deal with some key ones during training camp. I'm not sure we'll see San Fran's defense firing on all cylinders here in Week 1. With issues on their offensive line, don't count on the 49ers ground game to obliterate the Cardinals defensive front on Sunday. With that being said, that might just force QB Jimmy Garoppolo to take a few more shots down the field. Keep in mind, he completed better than 75% of his passes for eight touchdowns in two meetings with the Cardinals a year ago and Arizona isn't likely to take a big step forward defensively this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills UNDER 39.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -104 | 77 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the lowest-scoring games on the Week 1 board, as evidenced by the total sitting in the high-30's at the time of writing. Many have high hopes for the Bills offense with QB Josh Allen expected to take a step forward along with the addition of WR Stefon Diggs. The jury is still out on whether the Bills offense can be explosive through. I do expect them to orchestrate plenty of long drives against a relatively soft Jets defense here in Week 1. With that being said, I also believe New York can chew up some clock of its own with conservative play-calling against a Buffalo defense that can be dominant, but also yields to the short game in an effort to prevent big plays downfield. That's essentially why the Bills set up well as an 'under' team right out of the gates this season. With few gamebreakers on offense, Jets QB Sam Darnold will be forced into a game manager role on Sunday and that bodes well for the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Raiders v. Panthers OVER 47.5 | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Raiders and Panthers do battle in Carolina on Sunday afternoon. Las Vegas' offense should absolutely feast on a Panthers defense that is missing a ton of talent from a year ago. Keep in mind, the Carolina defense had a tough enough time with all of that talent on hand last season. Now it has the potential to be the weakest defense in the entire league. The Raiders may not have an elite offense - the presence of QB Derek Carr virtually ensures that - but this is simply too good of a matchup not to succeed. Meanwhile, the Panthers will turn the page on the Cam Newton era with Teddy Bridgewater taking over under center. You can be sure he'll be motivated to perform now that he's finally grabbed a starting job. He has enough talent around him, including all world RB Christian McCaffrey, to get off to a strong start against a very beatable Raiders defense. Gone from Las Vegas are Prince Amukamara and Damarious Randall and while they did struggle at times, their experience will be missed in a new-look secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team OVER 42 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting this to be one of the uglier games on the Week 1 slate, but I'm not so easily convinced. I actually believe we'll see some offensive fireworks as these two familiar NFC East foes square off in Washington. Philadelphia is going to have to play fast on offense in an effort to circumvent its own offensive line issues against Washington's tremendous pass rush. The good news for the Eagles is that Washington's defensive back-end is average at best and I believe the opportunity will be there for Philadelphia's underrated pass-catching corps to come up with some big plays downfield. On the flip side, I'm higher on the Washington offense than most. QB Dwayne Haskins is poised to take a step forward after showing plenty of improvement down the stretch last year. While its WR corps isn't deep, it has a bonafide gamebreaker in Terry McLaurin. And don't sleep on RB Antonio Gibson making something out of nothing in the backfield. The Eagles may be known for their tough defense but they take a hit this year with a number of key cogs no longer in uniform, including Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham. Take the over (10*). |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -104 | 56 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two sudden AFC rivals in the last year, with the previous two resulting in wild, high-scoring affairs with the Texans winning the regular season matchup 31-24 and the Chiefs prevailing when it really mattered in the AFC Divisional Round, 51-31. There's little reason to expect anything other than another shootout as this unique 2020 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night. Yes, the Texans lost all-world WR DeAndre Hopkins, but the cupboard is by no means bare as they brought in the likes of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb to solidify the receiving corps. We can certainly expect Will Fuller to take a big step forward in Hopkins' absence, and this is a matchup he can feast on a Chiefs secondary that will be missing CB Bashaud Breeland - keeping in mind, this unit struggled at the best of times last season. Kansas City will also be without NT Mike Pennel, which should help open things up for the Texans ground attack which has been re-tooled with the addition of RB David Johnson. We know what we're going to get with the Chiefs electric offense. All of the key pieces are back and the addition of rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire could potentially make this unit even stronger. The Texans weren't able to get to opposing quarterbacks with any consistency last season and did little to help their own cause in the offseason. Look for QB Pat Mahomes to come out all guns blazing here as he feasts on a Texans secondary that is missing a key cog in CB Gareon Conley. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 54 | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:25 pm et on Sunday February 2nd. Last year’s expected Super Bowl shootout between the Patriots and Rams fizzled but I expect a different story to unfold this year as the upstart 49ers take on the Chiefs in Miami. The hype surrounding the 49ers defense continues to build as this game approaches. Yes, the Niners have an elite defense across the board but I believe their aggressive nature (not necessarily in terms of their blitz packages, or lack thereof) may end up costing them in this particular matchup. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has re-emerged as a true running threat now that he has healed from multiple in-season injuries he suffered. That’s to say nothing of his ability to get the ball to his electric pass-catching corps. As good as the Niners are on defense, they’re unquestionably going to have their hands full on Sunday evening. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense really came into its own down the stretch and came up big when the chips were down in two playoff games – out of necessity mind you, after digging themselves early deficits in both of those contests. I’m just not sure the Niners are getting nearly enough credit for the creativity and explosiveness of their offense, which does match up well with the Chiefs defense here. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t filled up the stat sheet in these playoffs, but he hasn’t had to. Playing with big leads for much of those two wins over the Vikings and Packers, Garoppolo was limited to ‘game manager’ duty. Here, we should see him pressed into action and I’m confident he can orchestrate some big plays downfield with his highly-underrated group of pass-catchers. Last year’s dud notwithstanding, the Super Bowl has delivered many exciting, high-scoring affairs in recent years and I’m anticipating another instant classic on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 53 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. Even after the Chiefs were involved in an 82-point game against Houston last week, I don't believe the oddsmakers have set the total high enough in this weekend's showdown with upstart Tennessee. RB Derrick Henry will get his for the Titans against a Chiefs defense you can certainly run on, particularly if run-stuffing DT Chris Jones can't go, as expected to be the case. But I don't believe nearly enough people are giving QB Ryan Tannehill any shot at keeping up with Pat Mahomes should this turn into a shootout. I'm actually confidence that Tannehill, who has been one of the league's most efficient passers down the stretch this season, can consistently move the football through the air, and come up with a handful of explosive plays should the Chiefs elect to sell out to slow down Henry. On the flip side, Tennessee doesn't generate nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to give it any hope that it can contain Mahomes in this one. As we saw in last week's game, albeit against an inferior defense, this Chiefs offense is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. If the Titans come into this game thinking they can turn it into a slugfest, I think they will be sorely mistaken. I'm anticipating a shootout, just as we saw in the first matchup between these two teams this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up perfectly as we're dealing with a relatively low total based on all four games last week staying 'under' the total and the fact that the 49ers reputation as a 'defense first' team preceeds them. That's not to mention the notion that the Vikings offense can only go as far as QB Kirk Cousins takes them and the belief that he's in line for a bad game after holding his own in New Orleans last week. I believe the potential is there for a shootout in Santa Clara as the Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers offense doesn't get nearly enough respect. This is one of the most creative offenses in the NFL today and with extra time to prepare I fully expect Kyle Shanahan's squad to pull out all the stops against a very beatable Vikings defense on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Vikings are riding high after playing a near-perfect road game in New Orleans last Sunday. I'm not a Kirk Cousins doubter. I'm confident we'll see him turn in another strong performance here with all of his weapons likely at his disposal with WR Adam Thielen expected to be good to go. The common narrative is that the 49ers defense is healthy now and poised to dominate the Vikings, but I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a shootout waiting to happen as far as I'm concerned and I fully expected to see the total set well into the 50's so we're getting value playing 'over' the current number. The Vikings will likely be in comeback mode for much of the afternoon on Sunday but that should serve their offense well, with QB Kirk Cousins comfortable slinging it around in a dome setting and WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen set to take advantage of a beatable Saints pass defense. While New Orleans has held up well against the run this season, it will undoubtedly have its hands full with a now-healthy Dalvin Cook, who should be a workhorse for the Vikes on Sunday. I don't think Minnesota has much hope of slowing the Saints surging offense, which didn't take its foot off the gas one bit in Week 17. That performance should serve New Orleans well as it rolls into this eruption spot against the Vikings. RB Alvin Kamara re-emerged as a threat both on the ground and in the passing game down the stretch and he should see plenty of usage in this matchup as well. The Vikes don't have anyone that can cover WR Michael Thomas, who is well-positioned to turn in the best performance of any receiver on Wild Card Weekend. Take the over (10*). |
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tennessee and New England at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. This projects to be a low-scoring affair between the Titans and Patriots in Foxborough on Saturday night. We've actually won some money playing the 'over' in games involving the Titans this season but Mike Vrabel's squad is in a tough spot here. We know that Bill Bellichick will do everything he can to take away the Titans best offensive weapon, that being RB Derrick Henry. Of course, Tennessee also has emerging superstar WR A.J. Brown, but he should be handled by Pats CB Stephon Gilmore. Of course, New England's offense has seemingly gotten worse as the season has gone on. QB Tom Brady's elbow obviously isn't right, nor is WR Julian Edelman operating at 100%. I do think we'll see the Pats ground game and short passing game find some success in this matchup, but that should only lead to long, clock-churning scoring drives, helping our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans UNDER 44 | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' in the first of four NFL Wild Card matchups. I don't think anything is going to come easy for Texans QB DeShaun Watson in this game. The Bills defense has been vulnerable against the run at times, but I don't believe the Texans boast a strong enough ground game to really open up the offense here. The blueprint has already been laid out for slowing Watson - even the Bucs were able to keep him in check in a key late season matchup. On the flip side, the Bills offense doesn't have a particularly high ceiling. Even in games where Josh Allen has erupted, the Bills haven't always put up a boatload of points. I actually feel that both of these teams have a fairly low ceiling as far as point production goes in this contest, which obviously sets us up well with the 'under' as this total has crept up as the week has progressed. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-19 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The last time we saw the Vikings on the primetime stage they were involved in a shootout with the Seahawks in Seattle. They also lit up the Chargers for a whopping 39 points in last week's blowout victory. Those two results serve to give us a slightly inflated total here in my opinion. Minnesota is highly unlikely to match last week's production in this late season division game. On the flip side, while the Vikings defense has been inconsistent, I do think they can hold a mediocre Packers offense at bay on Monday night. Since the start of November, Green Bay has scored more than 24 points in a game only once, and that performance came at the hands of an awful Giants defense. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair on Monday night in Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 50.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We are dealing with a high total in this matchup - one of the highest on the Week 16 board in fact - but I believe it's warranted. The Seahawks may be an elite team but they by no means possess an elite defense. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray should be afforded plenty of time to move the football, both through the air and on the ground. Off last week's confidence-building performance against the Browns this is another positive spot for the Arizona offense as a whole. Meanwhile, the Seahawks enjoyed a bounce-back performance of their own last week in Carolina and should see continued success against a very beatable Cards defense Unless the Seahawks completely overlook the Cards, which I don't see happening, they should be able to score at will throughout this game on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Saints v. Titans OVER 50 | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. The common line of thinking here is that the Saints offense is in for a rough afternoon in Tennessee, playing on a short week off Monday's blowout win over the Colts. I actually believe we're going to see a shootout here. The Titans are missing both of their starting cornerbacks, which spells trouble as they try to contain all-world WR Michael Thomas, who is coming off another stellar performance. The Saints defense is dealing with some key injurys as well, most notably Rankins and Davenport up front. Of course, the Titans offense has come around since QB Ryan Tannehill took over the reins. He's in for a fine bounce-back performance against a Saints defense that wasn't really tested in their Monday night win over the hapless Colts. UPDATE: Titans RB Derrick Henry is not expected to play due to a hamstring injury. Still confident in the over as I believe the Saints banged up defense can be run on and Tannehill can find success in potential catch-up mode. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs OVER 50 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Saturday. I probably don't need to tell you that this is a shootout waiting to happen on Saturday afternoon in Tampa. The Texans were expected to get involved in a shootout in Tennessee last Sunday but that matchup fizzled somewhat, with Houston ultimately securing a much-needed 24-21 win. Here, I don't think there's any chance of the offenses wilting as both groups are in tremendous position to light it up all afternoon long. Of course, Tampa Bay is missing its top two wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but that only serves to give us a lower total to work with here. QB Jameis Winston will continue to bomb away on his march toward the pass yardage title for 2019. Meanwhile, the Bucs ground game has the potential to also go off against a Texans run defense that is really struggling, giving up north of 4.6 yards per rush. Tampa Bay should be able to effectively limit the Texans ground game but I have full confidence in DeShaun Watson to do enough through the air (and with his legs) to help get this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans OVER 51 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Who would have thought we'd see a game between these two AFC South rivals feature a total north of 50? This is a series that generally features totals in the low-40s. Keep in mind, this will be the first of two matchups between the Texans and Titans in the next three weeks. Both defenses are shells of their former selves, largely due to a number of key injuries. Texans QB DeShaun Watson should have a field day against the Titans suddenly leaky, injury-plagued secondary, even if WR Will Fuller can't go. Meanwhile, QB Ryan Tannehill has earned a new lease on his football life in Tennessee and is set up nicely to tear apart a struggling Texans defense. Of course, RB Derrick Henry, who was plagued by a hamstring injury last week but still put up gawdy numbers, should be able to run wild against a Houston defense that has been particularly bad in recent weeks. It all sets up for a back and forth shootout in Nashville on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Everyone seems to be assuming the Jets aren't going to be able to score much at all in this game but I'm not sure that will be the case at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday night. The Ravens are allowing just shy of five yards per rush this season which opens the door for Jets RB Le'Veon Bell, who should have the backfield all to himself with Bilal Powell expected to miss. Meanwhile, the Ravens should score at will in this mismatch. The Jets defense is undermanned and quite simply banged up, likely missing both Jamal Adams and Quinnen Williams for this one. That opens the door for another monster performance from QB Lamar Jackson. Also look for a re-introduction to WR Hollywood Brown on Thursday night as the Ravens run up the score on the Jets. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an unappealing Monday night matchup between two downtrodden NFC East squads. With that being said, I do think we'll see some offensive fireworks in this one. The Giants will trot out QB Eli Manning for what could be his last ride. While Manning does present a great deal of upside, I do think he can do some damage working with a strong group of receivers, not to mention a returning TE Evan Engram. Keep in mind, the Eagles secondary is bottom of the barrel as far as I'm concerned. On the flip side, this is a smash spot for Eagles QB Carson Wentz coming off a much-needed breakout against the lowly Dolphins last Sunday. Wentz's wide receiver corps is getting healthier and he has a two-headed monster to work with at TE in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Throw in dynamic rookie RB Miles Sanders and I'm confident we'll see the Philadelphia offense move the football and score at will against a weak Giants defense that doesn't generate any sort of pass rush. Take the over (10*). |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. After watching a thrilling, high-scoring affair on Monday Night Football, look for completely the opposite on Thursday as the Cowboys and Bears do battle at Soldier Field. The Bears defense has sagged lately but I'm not convinced Dallas' disjointed offense can take full advantage. RB Ezekiel Elliott will get his but Dak Prescott may struggle in hostile territory on Thursday night. Meanwhile, Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky played fairly well on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit but figures to regress once again versus an aggressive Cowboys defense here. The Bears have become completely one-dimensional on offense and that doesn't serve them well against a better than advertised Dallas secondary coming off a poor showing against the Bills last week. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is being pegged as a potential shootout based on the total we're working with but I don't expect this non-conference affair to play out that way on the field. The Ravens will be hard-pressed to match their last two performances, in which they scored 49 and 41 points against far inferior defenses in the Bengals and Texans. The Rams defense does match up well with the Ravens dynamic offense as they allow just 3.5 yards per rush this season and don't give up a lot of big passing plays downfield. Baltimore and QB Lamar Jackson in particular is certainly in line for a 'come back to Earth' game as it travels across the country for this primetime affair. On the flip side, there's little reason to have a lot of confidence in the Rams offense at this point. This is a unit that has underachieved due to injuries and otherwise all season long and that's unlikely to change against an underrated Ravens defense. Baltimore will give up yardage on the ground but I'm not convinced Los Angeles will be able to take full advantage. The Ravens have been generating a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have a shutdown tandem in the secondary capable of containing the likes of Kupp, Woods and Cooks. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Tennessee at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This is by no means a shootout on paper but I do think the Jaguars and Titans can find their way 'over' the relatively low posted total in what could be a sneaky-entertaining affair on Sunday afternoon. Last week, we saw Jags QB Nick Foles throw the ball 47 times in a blowout loss in Indianapolis and I expect him to be let loose once again here as the Titans are likely to stymie the Jags ground attack. That's not to say that Jags RB Leonard Fournette won't be a factor as he should certainly play a role in the Jacksonville passing game. Titans RB Derrick Henry is coming off a big performance last week and should absolutely run wild against a Jags defense that has somewhat surprisingly been torched by opposing ground games for over 5.4 yards per rush this season. QB Ryan Tannehill has played well but still doesn't instill a great deal of confidence. With that being said, since dealing away CB Jalen Ramsey, the Jags are beatable through the air and the Titans coaching staff appears to have full confidence in Tannehill. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. We're being given a favorable total here thanks to the Eagles low-scoring result in poor weather conditions at home against a suddenly punchless Patriots offense last week. Here, I'm anticipating a shootout as the Seahawks roll into the Linc to face the Eagles. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson should enjoy a ton of success against a very beatable Eagles secondary in this one. I continue to profess that Seattle's wide receiver duo (and now trio) of Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Josh Gordon is one of the most underappreciated units in the entire NFL. Also look for Seahawks RB Chris Carson to get involved heavily in the passing game in this one as the Eagles have had no success defending opponent's short passing attacks this season. On the flip side, likely forced into comeback mode for much of this game, I do expect a big game from Eagles QB Carson Wentz. The Philadelphia wide receiving corps is undermanned right now but it can involve the running backs and certain the tight ends, who draw a favorable matchup here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 49.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it in on Sunday afternoon. The Saints got caught looking right past the Falcons last week as they could muster only nine points in a blowout loss, at home no less. This is an ideal bounce-back spot, however, as Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense should absolutely ether a weak Bucs defense. WR Michael Thomas has quietly been putting together a record-setting campaign and he should go off in this particular matchup. Meanwhile, the Saints defense is dealing with a number of key absences right now, the least of which being CB Marshon Lattimore, who would have likely shadowed Bucs standout WR Mike Evans. The New Orleans defense simply hasn't lived up to expectations this season and could be in for another rough ride against an increasingly aggressive Bucs offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 43 | 14-27 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll keep it simple with my analysis of this play on Monday night. Both offenses have struggled at times this season, due to injuries and otherwise but I do feel the two units have some upside heading into this one. The Dolphins were finally able to get things going a little bit last week, scoring 21 points against a good defense in Buffalo. WR Davante Parker has now scored a touchdown in three straight games which is saying something for an offense that couldn't do anything earlier in the campaign. RB Kenyon Drake didn't travel with the team as he is likely to be traded before the deadline but his absence doesn't concern me all that much. Look for the Fins to do what they can to move the football through the air in this particular matchup. The Steelers are in a smash spot offensively against an awful, undermanned Miami defense. Pittsburgh will get QB Mason Rudolph back under center following its bye week and I'm confident he'll can march the offense up and down the field against a very beatable opponent. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-19 | Panthers v. 49ers UNDER 41.5 | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in London two weeks ago as they routed the Bucs in a key divisional win. Here, Carolina hits the road to face the upstart 49ers and could be in for a rough ride against one of the best defensive teams in the league. San Francisco is allowing just over four yards per rush this season and should be able to effectively limit Panthers do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers pass defense just doesn't give up big plays and that sets them up well against the Panthers downfield passing game led by elite athletes Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore. I don't expect the Carolina defense to roll over. The Panthers 'd' catches a favorable matchup against a 49ers offense that has been good, but certainly not great this season. QB Jimmy Garoppolo should be under pressure for much of the afternoon with offensive linemen Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey still sidelined. While the Panthers have given up their share of yardage to opposing ground games, the 49ers backfield isn't all that imposing. Expect a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. The Patriots offense is certainly banged-up right now with virtually their entire wide receiving corps nursing various ailments. I expect RBs Sony Michel and James White to be the focal point of the offense on Monday night at the Meadowlands, which plays into our hands as the ground game and short passing attack helps keep the clock moving. We can count on Bill Bellichick and more specifically CB Stephon Gilmore to take away the Jets best weapon through the air, that being WR Robby Anderson. New England will likely allow the Jets to pound away with RB Le'Veon Bell, but to limited success. QB Sam Darnold returned with a big game against the Cowboys last week, but look for him to come back to earth against a familiar divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears UNDER 37 | 36-25 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between New Orleans and Chicago at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is the lowest total on this week’s board, but it’s warranted in my opinion. The Saints keep rolling along without QB Drew Brees but their success certainly hasn’t come on the strength of their offense. In a favorable matchup against the Jaguars last Sunday they managed only 13 points with QB Teddy Bridgewater resuming his role as game manager, throwing for 240 yards and a single touchdown while RB Latavius Murray led the backfield in rush yards with only 44. Alvin Kamara remains banged-up and there’s some doubt whether he’ll even be able to play on Sunday. Either way, I have little confidence in the Saints putting many points on the board against an elite and rested Bears defense that should be in a foul mood following a loss to the Raiders in Oakland. On the flip side, the Bears will welcome back QB Mitchell Trubisky but I’m not counting on big returns against a quality Saints defense. Chicago’s offense has little upside right now and with Saints CB Marshon Lattimore likely to erase WR Allen Robinson and RB David Montgomery still trying to carve out a true lead back role, we can anticipate another (far) less-than-explosive performance at Soldier Field. This one has slugfest written all over it. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 43.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. With the Vikings coming off a high-scoring affair against the Eagles last week this is an ideal spot to jump back on the ‘under’ as they hit the road to face the Lions, who are playing on a short week following Monday night’s highly-disappointing loss in Green Bay. We’ve seen Minnesota really open up its offense in the last couple of weeks with WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs taking turns going off. Here, I think we can count on a return to form from the Vikings offense as they’ll likely lean heavily on RB Dalvin Cook and even backup Alexander Mattison, who played a key role in last week’s victory. The Lions run defense has struggled at times, including on Monday night when it allowed Packers RB Jamaal Williams to run wild. I do look for Detroit to bounce back in that regard here at home, however, and feel that the Lions pass defense does match up well against the Vikes dynamic tandem of Thielen and Diggs. Detroit got off to a nice start offensively at Lambeau Field on Monday but couldn’t sustain it – a common theme with this offense over the years. Here, the Lions face the unenviable task of playing on a short week against one of the league’s best defenses. Note that Minnesota excels at pressuring opposing quarterbacks and has held opposing running backs well south of four yards per rush this season. Detroit simply has too few reliable options in its passing game to worry me all that much against a good, but not great Vikes pass defense. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 50.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We have another shootout waiting to happen in a game involving the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. After cashing with the ‘over’ in last week’s win over the Falcons, there’s no reason to jump ship here. Arizona has the perfect make-up as an ‘over’ team in today’s NFL. The Cardinals offense can move the football in a myriad of different ways and plays up-tempo regardless the situation. Their defense is one of the weakest in the league. I’ll get back to that in a moment. Here we can expect Arizona to absolutely throttled a weak Giants defense that allows just under five yards per rush and have done nothing to slow any opposing pass game with a pulse this season. The Giants offense continues to boast plenty of upside with rookie QB Daniel Jones under center. This week Jones will get some much needed help with the return of do-it-all RB Saquon Barkley. Running backs have absolutely terrorized the Cards defense this season, both on the ground and through the air. Arizona will get CB Patrick Peterson back from suspension this week but how effective he’ll be remains to be seen. I don’t think it’s simply a matter of his return curing all that ails this defense. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This projects as potentially one of the highest-scoring shootouts of the entire season as both offenses come in ready to fully expose the weaknesses of the opposing defenses. The Rams secondary is an absolute mess right now and don’t let their early week acquisition of CB Jalen Ramsey steer you otherwise. Ramsey hasn’t suited up since September and now comes in following a limited week of practice with his new team. His reward will be lining up against Falcons all-world WR Julio Jones who is finally in line for a big breakout performance on Sunday. While the Falcons have been awful in the win-loss column, their offense continues to churn along with QB Matt Ryan posting monster numbers. Nothing changes against the Rams truly disappointing defense this week. On the flip side, we’ve also seen the Rams offense sputter due in large part to the inefficiency of QB Jared Goff, not to mention their offensive line’s inability to pass-protect. That should change here as the Falcons defense has done nothing to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Given a clean pocket I’m confident Goff can tear apart this struggling Falcons defense. After last week’s debacle it’s unlikely the Rams will lean heavily on their ground attack here, instead electing to attack the Atlanta defense through the air. Count on big performances from Kupp, Woods, Cooks et al as this one develops into a back-and-forth shootout. I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on this field last October we saw the total settle out around 54 points. That game failed to eclipse that number but here I look for a different story to unfold, at a more favorable number for ‘over’ bettors. The Chiefs defense is a mess. They’re allowing well north of five yards per rush this season, which sets up especially well for the Broncos two-headed backfield attack featuring Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. The Broncos won’t shy away from pounding the football in an effort to chew up the clock and effectively shorten this game, but I’m confident they’ll break off enough big runs to finish drives with touchdowns on the board. Given the Chiefs highly disappointing and virtually non-existent pass rush, oft-criticized Denver QB Joe Flacco should be able to find some success through the air in this one as well. Kansas City obviously possesses an elite offense, even if it isn’t going to match the numbers it put up during an incredible 2018 campaign. This is an admittedly tough matchup against a quality Broncos defense but off back-to-back losses, you can be sure the Chiefs offense will come out swinging and WR Tyreek Hill certainly looked no worse for wear in his first game back from injury last Sunday. Bettors are very hesitant to play the ‘over’ in this one due to the Broncos knack for getting involved in low-scoring games but that only serves to give us value with the total being set lower than it should be in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers UNDER 41.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Pittsburgh is in dire straits on offense right now with both Ben Roethlisberger and Mason Rudolph sidelined. Don't discount the loss of change-of-pace RB Jaylen Samuels either. Simply put, the Steelers offense has been a plodding unit at the best of times this season and now heads to the west coast with that is sure to be a conservative, run-based offensive gameplan. Los Angeles hasn't been great against the run but can focus its defensive focus on slowing RB James Conner and a one-dimensional offense here. The Chargers are somewhat committed to working RB Melvin Gordon back into the fold but there's no question, he didn't look great in last week's season debut. With key injuries on their offensive line the Chargers are limited in what they can do offensively right now. This isn't an ideal matchup against an underrated Steelers defense that can generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks and while RB Austin Ekeler and WR Keenan Allen can inflict some damage, I still believe this total will prove to be too high. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-19 | Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 51.5 | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential as the Falcons travel to Glendale to take on the Cardinals. Atlanta was involved in a shootout last week in Houston, ultimately falling well short in a blowout loss. The Falcons offense continues to roll along with Matt Ryan airing it out more than any other quarterback in the NFL. Nothing changes this week as Ryan faces a less-than-imposing Cardinals pass defense that continues to play without corners Peterson and Alford. Not only that but Arizona isn't generating any pressure on opposing quarterbacks which means Ryan should have plenty of time to find his terrific wide receiving corps for big gains. On the flip side, this is a potential blow-up spot for Cards rookie QB Kyler Murray. Like the Cards, the Falcons aren't putting any pressure on opposing quarterbacks and Murray should have little trouble beating them both through the air and on the ground. There are questions whether RB David Johnson will be able to play through a bad back but even if he can't go, backup RB Chase Edmonds showed last week he's more than up for the challenge. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-19 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams were involved in tightly-contested affairs last Sunday and while both games went 'over' the total, neither contest was a shootout. Here, I believe the potential is there for a shootout as the Bengals try to stay competitive, and should have a good shot at doing so against an injury-plagued, and struggling Ravens defense. On the flip side, this is a tremendous opportunity for the Baltimore offense to run wild against an awful Bengals defense. Teams have absolutely steamrolled Cincinnati on the ground this season and few teams are set up better to do exactly that than the Ravens. QB Lamar Jackson is coming off a good but not great performance in an overtime win over the rival Steelers last Sunday. Look for him to find the going a lot easier in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. With word coming out that the Giants will be missing Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard (among others) we've seen a considerable drop in this total (not to mention an ugly weather forecast). I feel it's gone too low. Simply put, I don't expect the Giants to possess the football long enough to churn out long, clock-eating drives in this game. Maybe we'll see the Patriots take their foot off the gas at some point, but even if they do, they'll likely have already contributed enough points to help this one 'over' the number. We're not asking much out of the Giants offense here and I don't believe they'll get completely shut out. Take the over (9*). |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I absolutely love the way this play sets up on Monday night in Santa Clara. The Browns are coming off an offensive explosion on the road against the division rival Ravens last week but don't count on a repeat performance here. Cleveland came up with the perfect gameplan for that matchup, focusing on quick passes and run plays to beat up on an undermanned and struggling Ravens defense. Now the Browns stay on the road and travel across the country for a matchup with the upstart (and undefeated) 49ers, who have gotten some tremendous defensive play in the early going this season. While the Browns defense is in for some regression here, I do think their defense can hold up well against everyone not named George Kittle on Monday night. Kittle will get his, but look for the Browns 'D' to do a nice job of containing the Niners offense as a whole. Cleveland is getting a little healthier on the defensive side of the football and it matches up well with the middle-of-the-road San Francisco offense. This total has everything to do with the Browns high-scoring result last week and the early season thinking that the Niners would be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Neither angle is really in touch with reality at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers OVER 40 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Panthers win in Houston last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The door is open for another big game from Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette with the Panthers now missing DT Kawann Short. Note that even with Short in action, Carolina hasn't fared well against opposing run games, allowing just shy of 4.8 yards per rush. The Panthers are in a strong bounce-back spot offensively after getting held down by the Texans last Sunday. With Jaguars stud CB Jalen Ramsey ruled out once again, look for Panthers QB Kyle Allen to take full advantage. Even the bumbling Broncos offense was able to get rolling against this defense last week in Denver, and this certainly isn't an ideal spot for the Jags playing on the road for a second straight week. Nothing really needs to be said about the Panthers ground game as RB Christian McCaffrey can move the chains regardless the situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans OVER 50 | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential, even after both of these offenses struggled mightily in last week's contests. With the Texans allowing north of 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, things should open up for Falcons QB Matt Ryan through the air in this one. Houston has one of the weakest secondaries in the entire NFL but held up fine last week thanks to Panthers QB Kyle Allen not testing it with deep passes. We should see a much different story unfold here with Ryan and WR Julio Jones in line for a big game. Atlanta's defense ranks second-to-last in the league in sacks this season and could be in for a long afternoon if it can't generate any pressure on Texans QB Deshaun Watson. WR DeAndre Hopkins has faced a murderer's row of cornerbacks in recent weeks but catches a break here against the Falcons struggling secondary. I've been calling for breakout games from WR Will Fuller for weeks now but it has yet to happen. This could certainly be the spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | 29-30 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Rams are coming off a ridiculously high-scoring game in a stunning home loss to the Bucs last Sunday afternoon but I'm not about to write off this defense. Facing a familiar division opponent should be just what the doctor ordered in this 'get right' matchup for the defense. This is by no means an easy challenge as the Seahawks offense has been rolling along but I do think the Rams will be up for it. On the flip side, the Seattle defense is coming off a stellar performance in Arizona last Sunday and will no question feed off the energy of the home crowd here, especially considering the last time they played on this field things did not go well against the Saints. We saw two high-scoring games between these two teams last season but that hasn't been the norm in this series. I'm not sure either squad is interested in a shootout traveling on a short week with a lot on the line in-division. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 50 | 55-40 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This total checks in much higher than I expected, largely due to the shootout with the Giants the Bucs were involved in last Sunday afternoon. Here, I look for Tampa Bay to have a tough time getting anything going offensively against an elite Rams defense. Head coach Bruce Arians would be wise to dial back QB Jameis Winston here in an effort to at least sustain some drives and avoid costly turnovers. While Los Angeles has the potential to explode offensively in this one, it doesn’t have a track record of embarrassing the opposition. Tampa Bay has actually done a nice job of holding enemy running backs in check this season and the Rams aren’t likely to completely abandon their ground game in this one, opening the door for some long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 47 | 16-10 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Panthers blowout win in Arizona last week while just missing with the same play in the Texans impressive road win over the Chargers. The latter game appeared headed well north of the total before things ground to a halt in the fourth quarter. I’m not anticipating a similar story to unfold here. This is another fine matchup for Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen, who delivered a truly impressive performance, albeit against a very beatable Cardinals defense last week. The Panthers speed at the wide receiver position is likely to give the Texans fits here while RB Christian McCaffrey should have little trouble both on the ground and through the air against a defense that has been very vulnerable against opposing running backs this season. It’s always a bit of a leap of faith when supporting the Texans offense, due to a couple of reasons, the least of which being the play-calling of Bill O’Brien and the other the issues on the offensive line. Houston did seem to sort out its o-line issues in last week’s game and the pure talent of QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins always helps limit the worry around this offense in general. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants OVER 48.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Redskins ugly, turnover-fueled blowout loss to the Bears on Monday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Washington will certainly be taking a step down in class against the Giants defense, which has been repeatedly abused by opposing offenses this season. There’s no help coming for the G-Men in that department, in fact things could get even worse due to injuries at the linebacker position. Meanwhile, the New York offense got a major boost from rookie QB Daniel Jones last Sunday in Tampa and he’s primed for another big performance here. We saw New York TE Evan Engram absolutely explode against the Bucs last week and we can count on more of the same against the Redskins weak pass defense here. Even with the absence of all-world RB Saquon Barkley, look for the Giants offensive resurgence to continue for another week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Packers offense has seemingly gotten better with each passing week in this, the first year of the Matt LaFleur era. That's not saying a lot as they've topped out at 27 points, but I see this as an absolute smash spot against a struggling and undermanned Eagles defense on Thursday night. The Philadelphia secondary is injury-ravaged and it certainly showed in last week's 27-24 loss to the previously offensively-challenged Lions, at home no less. It's hard to envision the Eagles figuring things out defensively playing on the road on a short week. On a positive note, Philadelphia is expected to have WR Alshon Jeffery back in the fold after he missed last week's game. I still have confidence in the Eagles offense, even with the rash of injuries that unit has dealt with. Note that while the Packers defense has been outstanding, they have still managed to allow exactly 16 points in back-to-back home games against the Vikings and Broncos, with opposing quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco turning in dismal performances. I do think we'll see the Eagles beat that point production in this one, which should put us in good position to cash our 'over' ticket. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 41 | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 82 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Bears offense has looked downright awful through two games this season but you have to consider the fact that they've had a tough draw, facing two tough defensive opponents in the Packers (who have been better than expected in that department) and the Broncos (in Denver). Here, I look for the Chicago offense, and QB Mitch Trubisky in particular, to get loose against a Redskins defense that has been awful for the most part through two games. Washington has played reasonably well defensively for stretches but even with that, has still given up a whopping 63 points. The Redskins have allowed 4.7 yards per rush so far this season and that should really help open things up for RB David Montgomery, who is coming off a nice performance last week in Denver. Chicago will be a popular road favorite play here but I'm not convinced it will be able to run away and hide on what will certainly be a highly-motivated and desperate Redskins squad off to an 0-2 start. Redskins QB Case Keenum has actually played pretty well when his team has been trailing in the early going this season, closing each of the last two games with late fourth quarter touchdown passes. He and WR Terry McLaurin have built a nice chemistry and can have continued success, even in a tough matchup here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers OVER 48 | 27-20 | Loss | -119 | 55 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Houston and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is another game that has major shootout potential on Sunday afternoon. The Texans are coming off one of the uglier games we’ve seen through the first two weeks of the season last week, barely eking out a win over the Jaguars at home. Here, I look for a much more explosive performance against a Chargers defense that has struggled in the early going this season, particularly against the run. It’s that lack of run defense (allowing over five yards per rush) that should open the door for Watson to have a monster day. Los Angeles simply doesn’t have anyone in the secondary that can contend with WR DeAndre Hopkins or even Will Fuller. On the flip side, the Chargers offense had a tough time in Detroit last week but catches a soft draw here as the Texans have allowed opposing rushers to gain 5.5 yards per rush. RB Austin Ekeler has made Chargers fans forget all about contract holdout Melvin Gordon and should continue to play a major factor in this week’s game against Houston. QB Philip Rivers hasn’t appeared to miss a step and should have little trouble tearing apart a weak Texans secondary with the help of WR Keenan Allen, who is healthy and appears to be in midseason form. I’m confident the losing squad gets well into the 20’s which suits our purposes just fine. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Panthers v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Panthers likely to be without QB Cam Newton and both of these teams coming off relatively low-scoring ‘under’ results last week, we’re being given a very reasonable total to work with here. I’m actually anticipating a bit of a shootout to develop here and will gladly play the ‘over’ at the number being offered. Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen doesn’t really represent much of a downgrade from Newton considering how hobbled Cam looked in the early going this season. The Panthers still possess an excellent wide receiver corps not to mention one of the best running backs in the league in Christian McCaffrey. This is an excellent breakout spot for the Panthers offense against a Cardinals defense that has looked awful without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford roaming the secondary. Carolina was expected to take a big step forward defensively considering the personnel moves it made in the offseason but so far, not so good as it has allowed opposing rushers to gain over 4.5 yards per rush and has by no means been a shut down unit against the pass. The Cardinals had a tough draw against the Ravens defense in Baltimore last Sunday but should bounce back here at home. Kyler Murray has turned in back-to-back 300+ yard passing games to open his career and he and WR Larry Fitzgerald should have a field day against the Panthers defense on Sunday afternoon. Don’t forget about Cards RB David Johnson either, who should have little trouble tuning up the Panthers struggling run defense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 39.5 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tennessee and Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total is about as low as it gets in today's NFL but it's warranted in my opinion. We're talking about two teams that have no interest in speeding things up due in large part to their 'game manager' quarterbacks. Titans QB Marcus Mariota missed practice earlier this week and might not be at full speed on Thursday night, further hampering an already-below average Tennessee offense. Yes, RB Derrick Henry absolutely ran wild against the Jags in a Thursday night matchup last December but don't count on history repeating itself here. The Jags have already had their season derailed, first with the injury to QB Nick Foles and then with star corner Jalen Ramsey asking to be traded. For now Ramsey is still on the team and he should play a big part in slowing the Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee's defense catches a matchup it can handle here with Jags backup QB Gardner Minshew a 'dink-and-dunk' type of player. Look for the Titans to stack the box against Jags RB Leonard Fournette and force Minshew to beat them through the air in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons OVER 52.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a fun Sunday night shootout between two NFC squads coming off much different results last week. Philadelphia needed a big second half rally to outlast Washington, at home no less. While the Eagles offense got rolling as the game progressed, we saw some major cracks in their defensive armor, particularly in the secondary - as expected. The Eagles vaunted pass rush was a no-show and if they can't right the ship here they'll be in for a long night against a still-loaded Falcons offense that is in line for a strong bounce-back performance at home. Atlanta couldn't get anything going last week in Minnesota and the Vikings controlled proceedings thanks to a highly-effective ground game. Here, I do look for the Falcons to see a lot more opportunities on offense - and to make the most of those with WR Julio Jones in line for a monster performance against a very beatable Eagles secondary. Last week's primetime games were generally low-scoring but I look for a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens OVER 46 | 17-23 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are quick to dismiss the Ravens’ 59-point outburst in Miami last week, citing the fact that the Dolphins are the worst team to grace the NFL in quite some time. While there may be some truth to that, this matchup actually sets up almost as well for the Ravens offense as they return home in excellent position to crush the Cardinals below-average defense. Arizona allowed Lions QB Matt Stafford to throw for just shy of 400 yards last week, albeit aided by overtime. As long as Patrick Peterson and Steven Alford remain sidelined, the Arizona defense is going to have a nightmarish time trying to slow down opposing passing games. Lost in the Ravens air show last week was the fact that RB Mark Ingram gained 107 yards and scored two touchdowns on just 14 carries. Cards rookie QB Kyler Murray got off to a rough start to his NFL career last week but did settle in as the game progressed and ultimately developed a nice rapport with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Murray catches a break here, facing the Ravens without their secondary at full strength after losing Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith. Of course the Cardinals offensive line remains a concern but in a game that projects to be lopsided in favor of Baltimore, I suspect Murray will have ample opportunity to air it out, noting that the Cards play at an extremely quick tempo. I’m not all that comfortable laying double-digits at this early stage of the season so instead we’ll bank on the Ravens doing their thing offensively while the Cards contribute enough to help this one ‘over’ the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 44 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the lowest-scoring games on the board in Week 2 after both teams saw relatively high-scoring results in Week 1. Both the Colts and Titans are going to employ "run-first" offenses this year, and that was evident last week. While I do believe Colts RB Marlon Mack and Titans RB Derrick Henry can both find some room to run (and catch) in this particular matchup, I don't think that's a bad thing for us as it helps keep the clock moving. I do question whether we'll see quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota end a lot of drives with 7's on the board rather than 3's. Note that the Colts lost WR Devin Funchess to broken collarbone last week after he had gotten off to a nice start with Brissett. Meanwhile, the Titans pass-catching group is as weak as it gets once you move from TE Delanie Walker, who has served as Mariota's security blanket, so to speak. I believe we're getting a favorable total here thanks to an overreaction to Week 1 results. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 49 | 43-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting an absolute annihilation in this game, and rightfully so. With that being said, I prefer to focus on the total, where I think there is considerable value with the 'under'. Keep in mind, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores is a disciple of Bill Bellichick and I'm not convinced Bill will be all that interested in running up the score in this particular matchup. The Dolphins got caught flat-footed defensively against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. I look for them to come in a little better-prepared to face the division rival Patriots here. Offensively, don't count on the Dolphins gaining any sort of traction against a still-underrated Patriots defense. Miami couldn't get much going last week and will find the going even tougher in this one. Look for the Dolphins to make a concerted effort to control the clock and do everything they can to keep Tom Brady off the field. It won't translate to a win, but I do look for it to result in a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The Seahawks got more than they bargained for at home against the Bengals last Sunday but did manage to pull out a 21-20 victory. The fact that they allowed only 20 points in that contest was a flattering result based on how their defense actually played on the field. The Steelers defense took a beating at Foxborough last Sunday night, suffering an ugly 33-3 loss. This is a more favorable draw at home facing a Seahawks team traveling from the west coast but I still expect Pittsburgh to give up its share of points in this one. Look for strong performances from QB Russell Wilson and WR Tyler Lockett in as Lockett matches up tremendously well and will be eager to rebound following last Sunday’s no-show (the Bengals defense keyed on him early and never let up). The Steelers were taken completely out of their gameplan last Sunday night as they fell behind early and never recovered. I don’t believe there’s any reason to panic, however, as Pittsburgh boasts a loaded offense that should thrive in this matchup. RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster are two of the game’s best players at their respective positions and JuJu in particular should have no trouble breaking loose against a weak Seattle secondary, which in turn should set things up nicely for Conner in a game where he should see heavy usage. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Most of the trends may be pointing to a relatively low-scoring result between these winless NFC South rivals on Thursday night, but I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks and believe the total will prove too low. The Bucs couldn't have looked much worse in last week's season-opening 31-17 loss to the 49ers. That game was pegged as a shootout but it never materialized due in large part to four Tampa Bay turnovers. QB Jameis Winston obviously needs to be better if the Bucs are to have any shot at upsetting the Panthers on Thursday night and I'm confident he will be. Note that after being held to less than 20 points in five straight meetings, Tampa Bay scored 28 and 24 points in two matchups with Carolina last year. Virtually all of the Bucs key pieces on offense are healthy entering this game after WR Mike Evans was slowed by illness last week. TE O.J. Howard and WR Chris Godwin in particular are due for strong bounce-back performances here as Tampa Bay likely finds itself in catch-up mode for most of this game. I fully expect to see the Carolina offense move the football and score at will on the Tampa Bay defense in this one. The Bucs pass rush was completely non-existent against the 49ers last week and while San Francisco wasn't really in great position to take full advantage, Carolina will be. Cam Newton should have little trouble bouncing back from an uneven performance last week with a clean pocket to work with on Thursday night. RB Christian McCaffrey draws an extremely favorable matchup as well, noting that he ran for 185 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries against Tampa in two meetings last year. We saw an absolute snooze-fest last Thursday night but I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 10:15 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams present more questions than answers on offense with the Broncos turning to veteran QB Joe Flacco and the Raiders moving on from the short-lived Antonio Brown-era on Monday night. One thing we know for sure is that both Flacco and Raiders QB Derek Carr struggle to push the football down the field with any efficiency. Expect Carr in particular to be under pressure all night long against the Broncos vaunted pass rush. Meanwhile, the Broncos will simply ask Flacco to be a 'game manager' and let their rushing attack do most of the heavy lifting. Denver isn't a good enough team to suffer a letdown defensively, even against an undermanned offensive opponent. Meanwhile, Oakland has had plenty of success against Denver here at home over the years and will still carry some confidence. In a competitive early season division game, I'll stick with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints OVER 52 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I really expected to see this total skyrocket in advance of Monday's showdown between the Texans and Saints but that hasn't been the case. I'm willing to take the matchup at face value, however, and certainly anticipate a high-scoring affair on Monday night. It's worth noting that the Saints defensive will be missing two key linemen in Mario Edwards and Sheldon Rankins due to injuries. I do have plenty of respect for the Saints secondary but they're beatable and I'm confident the Texans have the personnel to find some mismatches. On the flip side, I don't think the Texans defense has a hope of stopping or even slowing down the Saints offense. QB Drew Brees may be on the down side of his career but he always seems to get off to a strong start in September and this is the perfect matchup for him to really find success distributing the football against a simply overmatched Texans defense. Jadeveon Clowney and Tyrann Mathieu were just two key offseason losses for the Texans. Look for the Saints to move the football at will in this game while the Texans thrive in comeback mode, forcing a shootout on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers UNDER 45 | 24-30 | Loss | -112 | 76 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Indianapolis and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a matchup of two offenses that had the potential to be great before being derailed by the retirement of Colts QB Andrew Luck and holdout of Chargers RB Melvin Gordon. What could have been an opening week shootout now looks a lot more like a defensive struggle and I don’t believe the oddsmakers have properly accounted for that with this total. I’ve heard plenty of praise for Colts QB Jacoby Brissett but let’s face it, he’s not a true NFL starter. I do like the fact that the Colts return all five starters to their offensive line which should at least help them hold onto the football for extended stretches on Sunday afternoon, but that clock-churning really only helps our play on the ‘under’ as I don’t see them punching it into the end zone consistently. The Colts defense remains an underrated unit. Their ‘bend but don’t break’ style should once again serve them well (and ‘under’ bettors as well). This is a defense that returns 10 of 11 starters from a year ago, not to mention the key addition of pass-rushing specialist Justin Houston. While I do like the Chargers aerial attack, this isn’t a great matchup against the Colts solid secondary. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | 43-13 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tennessee and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I love the way this one sets up as one of the lowest-scoring games on the board this week. The Titans offense has the potential to be bad, real bad. One of the only things it really has going for it is RB Derrick Henry and let’s face it, he has been injury-plagued and inconsistent over the course of his career. Tennessee’s wide receiving corps is one of the worst in the league and QB Marcus Mariota will be staring down at one of the best defenses in football on Sunday in the Dawg Pound. With all of that said, Tennessee might be able to hang tough in this game thanks to its own stellar defense. The Browns have received so much hype for their talent at the skill positions on offense, but what about their terrible offensive line, which reared its ugly head in the preseason? If they can’t keep Baker Mayfield upright it could be a long afternoon in Cleveland. This has all the makings of a slugfest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars OVER 51.5 | 40-26 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This matchup resulted in a 30-14 win for the Chiefs last season but there’s reason to believe this year’s encounter will be much higher-scoring. The Chiefs are going to have a tough time repeating the level of offensive production they reached last year but there’s little reason to expect them to take much of a step back either. This is a terrific opening week matchup against a Jaguars defense that lost a number of key pieces from last year’s team. QB Patrick Mahomes should once again have a field day. On the flip side, the Jags offense can only get better following the departure of QB Blake Bortles. Nick Foles has done nothing but exceed expectations over the course of his career and he gets a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that was generally awful last season and doesn’t figure to get much better here in 2019. Expect Foles and WR Dede Westbrook to do a number on the Chiefs secondary while RB Leonard Fournette – by all accounts fully healthy entering the season – paces the offensive charge against a Chiefs defense that couldn’t stop anyone on the ground last season. This total is one of the highest on the board for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While I can understand the logic behind so-called 'sharp' money coming in on the 'under' in advance of Thursday's season opener in Chicago, I'm confident going the other way and calling for a relatively high-scoring affair between these NFC North rivals. The Packers offense should only improve with QB Aaron Rodgers back healthy and Mike McCarthy and his awful play-calling having been ushered out the door. The Matt LaFleur era is about the get underway and despite the fact that Rodgers didn't see a single preseason snap, I'm confident this offense can get off to a positive start, even against a vaunted Bears defense. Chicago's pass rush and run defense are obviously stellar, but I am confident that Rodgers can be granted enough time in the pocket to improvise if necessary and should have little trouble finding his stellar but perhaps unheralded group of receivers against what should be an overmatched Bears secondary. We know what we're going to get from WR Davante Adams as he's a bonafide star in this league. However, I also look for a big game from Geronimo Allison here as he looks to build off what he and Rodgers built during his rookie campaign. Chicago's offense gets severely overshadowed by its tremendous defense but I actually expect big things from this unit in year two under Matt Nagy. RB David Montgomery is the real deal and will be running behind a terrific offensive line that returns all five starters from a year ago. While Montgomery should be in for a big game (note the Packers inexplicably let their best run stopper DT Mike Daniels go in the offseason), I also think we'll see Mitchell Trubisky take another big step this season after throwing 24 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions last year. The WR duo of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller doesn't get a lot of hype but they're capable of going off against a beatable Packers secondary. I actually do have a lot of respect for the Packers defense, and in particular their re-tooled pass rush but I'm not sure we'll see them firing on all cylinders right out of the gate and they face a stiff challenge trying to penetrate the aforementioned Bears o-line while also giving the proper amount of attention to the rookie Montgomery. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in the Eagles win over the Bears last Sunday and also missed with the ‘over’ the last time Philadelphia played here in New Orleans back on November 18th. With that being said, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as this one sets up as a shootout at the Superdome. The Eagles should come in believing they can score in this game after going up against one of the best defenses in football last week in Chicago. This is actually a more favorable matchup for the Philadelphia offense as it hits the fast track in New Orleans. I liked some of the changes we saw the Eagles make offensively against the Bears, bringing WR Golden Tate back into the picture, and I do feel Tate can have an even bigger game against a vulnerable Saints pass defense in the slot. It’s also worth noting that WR Alshon Jeffery matches up particularly well with whoever he lines up against on this Saints defense. On the flip side, we’ve got the Saints at home – we know they’re going to put points on the board. I give the Eagles undermanned defense a lot of credit as they have done an excellent job instilling a ‘next man up’ philosophy following a number of key injuries in their secondary. However, there’s a big difference between facing the Bears and young QB Mitch Trubisky and going up against one of the best quarterbacks of all-time in Drew Brees and a loaded Saints offense. I don’t believe the books have set this number high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and New England at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total in this game but I’m anticipating a bit of a slugfest. The Chargers offense is somewhat limited with RB Melvin Gordon dealing with a myriad of injuries. Give him credit for sticking it out and turning in a solid performance against the Ravens last week but it’s really difficult to gauge just how much he has left in the tank for this one. I have felt all season that the Patriots possess an underrated defense that is capable of rising to the occasion when it needs to. This is certainly one of those spots where the Pats are going to need a peak performance from their defense as I’m really not sure how much success Tom Brady and company will have on offense against a talented and creative Chargers defense. Los Angeles defensive coordinator Gus Bradley pushed all the right buttons in last week’s dominant performance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens run-first offense. The Chargers will face a much different challenge here but I do expect them to show up and play well again. Note that the Patriots scored 27 points or less in six of their final nine regular season games and they eclipsed that number against the likes of the Packers, Dolphins and Jets so it’s tough to envision them getting back to that level here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-06-19 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 41.5 | 16-15 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Philadelphia and Chicago at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. I would imagine the books will see plenty of support for the ‘under’ leading up to this matchup but I feel the total will prove too low. The common line of thinking is that a late afternoon January game at Soldier Field will be a defensive slugfest but the matchups indicate otherwise. The Eagles are injury-ravaged in their secondary and really up against it facing a versatile Bears offense that can beat you in a lot of different ways. Chicago is guided by one of the best offensive minds in football in head coach Matt Nagy and I’m confident he’ll have an excellent gameplan laid out for beating this undermanned Philadelphia defense. What the Eagles do have going for them is a gutsy QB in Nick Foles who despite playing hurt, should find a way to put some points on the board in this game with a number of weapons at his disposal. The Bears certainly possess an elite defense but they’re facing an Eagles offense that still has most of the key pieces from last year’s Super Bowl run and I don’t think we’ll see Philadelphia go away quietly. We don’t need a shootout to cash this ticket and that certainly plays into our favor. Take the over (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up as a high-scoring playoff showdown between two familiar division opponents. I don’t believe the Texans pass defense can do much to slow a red hot Colts aerial attack led by QB Andrew Luck. Buoyed by a relatively weak schedule, the Houston pass ‘D’ is a ‘paper tiger’ as far as I’m concerned. Look for the Colts to move the football at will through the air in the friendly confines of Reliant Stadium on Saturday afternoon. I do fully expect this to be a competitive affair, and if we project the Colts to move the football and put plenty of points on the board, the Texans are going to have to as well. Houston obviously does have offensive weapons, namely dual-threat QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Colts defense has been good, but ultimately got here thanks to facing a rather limited Titans offense led by backup QB Blaine Gabbert last Sunday night. They will be taking a step up in class in this one. We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams during the regular season, and I expect nothing different here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. You can be sure there will be a lot of bettors looking for action eager to play the 'over' in this, the lone game on the board on Christmas Eve. I can't help but feel the total has been shaded a little high. Note that the Raiders have been involved in a string of relatively high-scoring affairs with the 'over' going 3-1-1 in their last five contests. I'm not sure that's sustainable, however, noting that the Oakland offense is rather punchless. While the Raiders defense has been bad as well, I don't believe the Broncos are well-suited to take advantage. With RB Philip Lindsay struggling over the last couple of games, the Denver offense hasn't been able to gain any headway. An injury to WR Emmanuel Sanders - QB Case Keenum's favorite target - hasn't helped. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series and none of those games have really come all that close to going 'over'. That includes earlier this season, when the Broncos beat the Raiders 20-19 with a field goal in the closing seconds. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. There's really nothing to fear when it comes to the Rams offense right now. Injuries have taken their toll with WR Cooper Kupp sidelined and RB Todd Gurley banged-up to say the least. We've seen a severely limited Sean McVay offense in the last couple of games and things don't figure to get much easier as they hit the road to face a Cardinals squad eager to play the spoiler role on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Arizona offense continues to struggle. Now they go up against a highly-motivated Rams defense that has gotten better with the return of CB Aqib Talib. Note that the Rams shut out the Cardinals earlier this season and have allowed just 16 points in taking each of the last three meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Texans v. Eagles OVER 46 | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are really an 'over' bettors' dream at this stage of the season. Their defense is completely decimated in the secondary and they've had no luck at all slowing down mobile opposing quarterbacks. Their offense is pass-first and appears rejuvenated with Nick Foles back under center, not to mention the fact that they've got their issues sorted when it comes to recently-acquired WR Golden Tate, who is not a fit in this offense. Tate has seen limited action in the last two weeks, to the benefit of the Eagles passing game. The Texans scored 29 points in a win over the Jets last Saturday and have now scored more than 20 points in five straight games. QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day against the Eagles struggling secondary on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an excellent spot to back the 'over' as the Giants aim to bounce back from a truly ugly showing at a rain-soaked Meadowlands last Sunday. Look for RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram to pace the charge for the Giants offense, which has certainly been handicapped by an ineffective Eli Manning this season. The Colts offense didn't have to do a whole lot at home against the Cowboys last week as they cruised to a 23-0 victory. QB Andrew Luck will likely have to dial it up a little more in this one, and should have plenty of success against a very limited Giants defense that has been getting ripped on a regular basis this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Ravens v. Chargers UNDER 42 | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at StubHub Center on Saturday night. The Ravens offense has had some success since going with Lamar Jackson under center but this is a tough matchup, traveling across the country to face a banged-up but still strong Chargers defense. The strength of the Los Angeles defense lies in its secondary right now. The Chargers should be able to cheat a little bit in this one and force Jackson to beat them through the air, something he hasn't done particularly well since taking over the starting job. Los Angeles staged an incredible fourth quarter comeback in Kansas City last week but QB Philip Rivers should find the going tough against a tough Ravens defense on Saturday. WR Keenan Allen may be able to play but it's unlikely he'll be 100% healthy. The same goes for RB Melvin Gordon. Take the under (10*). |
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12-15-18 | Texans v. Jets UNDER 44 | 29-22 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in New Jersey on Saturday afternoon. The Texans have generally been good for around 20 points or less on the road this season, outside of a shootout victory over the Colts in Indianapolis, but that came back in late September. The Jets are coming off an unexpectedly high-scoring affair in Buffalo last Sunday, winning by a 27-23 score. That was their highest scoring output since putting up 42 points against the aforementioned Colts back in mid-October. New York has been outgained by over 120 total yards in four consecutive games. The last meeting between these two teams came back in 2015 and it resulted in only 41 total points. I don't expect to see much different of a story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I believe we're dealing with a very reasonable total in this matchup, largely due to how inept the Vikings offense looked in last week's ugly 10-point effort in New England. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here as the Seahawks have certainly been beatable on defense this season, regardless whether they've been at home or on the road. Key here may be the fact that Seattle is giving up nearly six yards per rush in recent weeks, and goes up against a highly-motivated RB in Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are beat up defensively and will go up against a Seahawks offense that seems to be gaining confidence with each passing week. Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett is poised for a big performance against a struggling Vikings defense in the slot. Meanwhile, RB Chris Carson has given Seattle some real consistency in the backfield. Minnesota has been tough against the run but I think the Seahawks will be creative enough with Carson and Rashaad Penny running the football to make some headway. Take the over (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night. This should be a matchup for the Redskins offense to take advantage of with the Eagles defense completely injury-ravaged in the secondary. However, Washington's offensive line is also severely short-handed due to injuries and I'm not convinced that QB Colt McCoy will have enough room or time to find his targets downfield and expose the Eagles weakness in the secondary. On the flip side, we should see Philadelphia show a renewed commitment to their ground game with RB Josh Adams coming off a tremendous second half performance against the Giants last week. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with the 'over' cashing in four of the last five meetings. That only serves to give us a relatively high total to work with in this key December divisional matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Denver and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a lower scoring game than most expected last week at home against Pittsburgh but it’s not as if the Steelers didn’t move the football all afternoon long. The common line of thinking here is that the Denver defense will be able to manhandle the Jeff Driskel-led Bengals offense but I’m not so easily convinced. Driskel has actually had quite a bit of experience running the Cincinnati offense in the preseason and attempted 29 passes in relief of Andy Dalton last Sunday against Cleveland. I like the fact that Driskel got his feet wet with a touchdown pass to WR Tyler Boyd last week and expect him to build off of that 17-29, 155 pass yards performance against a beatable Broncos secondary. Driskel is expected to have WR A.J. Green at his disposal for this one as well. The Denver offense has been hit-or-miss for the most part this season but lately we have at least seen some consistency as the Broncos have scored 20, 45, 23, 17, 23 and 24 points over their last six games with the outlier coming in a pre-bye week game against the Texans. Here, the Broncos will go up against an awful Bengals defense that simply isn’t stopping anyone right now. Look for RB Philip Lindsay and WR Emmanuel Sanders to go off in this game. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here, largely due to the unappealing matchup between two 5-6 teams. I believe we will see more offensive fireworks than most anticipate. Take the over (10*). |
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