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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. |
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02-06-22 | AFC v. NFC OVER 62.5 | 41-35 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the AFC and NFC at 3 pm et on Saturday. I rarely get involved in the Pro Bowl as there doesn't tend to be any sort of edge to be found. This year I'm willing to make an exception, however. The NFL regularly adjusts the rules for the Pro Bowl and this year is no different. Those rule adjustments are generally made to favor the offenses and improve player safety, while also speeding the game up to provide a more entertaining 'All-Star Game' experience for the fans. Among the changes include forcing the defenses to use a 4-3 alignment for the entire game, limiting the number of defensive backs on the field. That certainly serves to open things up for the aerial attacks and creates a number of mismatches for the tight ends in particular as they often end up matched up against linebackers with little coverage ability. There is of course no blitzing allowed, serving to provide mostly clean pockets for the quarterbacks all afternoon long. We'll also see a two-minute warning in each quarter along with a change of possession at the end of each quarter, forcing the teams to employ an aggressive offensive gameplan at the end of each quarter, much like we're accustomed to seeing at the end of the first half. In another interesting quirk, the goalposts are just 14-feed wide rather than the standard 18-feet, six inches. While that leads to more difficult field goals for the kickers, it also lends itself to more aggressive play-calling, perhaps leading to more sevens on the board rather than threes. Some of these changes were made perhaps to improve the appeal of the game after a string of three consecutive dull, low-scoring games from 2017 through 2019. Last year's Pro Bowl was cancelled due to Covid-19 but the last time we saw some of these rules in place in the 2020 edition, a total of 71 points were scored in an relatively entertaining affair. Expect more of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 46 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. The 49ers limitations with a banged-up Jimmy Garoppolo running the offense are real. If not for that late comeback against these same Rams in Week 18 we would be talking about a team that scored 23 points or less in five straight games heading into this one. I'm not convinced we'll suddenly see them bust out in this, the third matchup between these familiar NFC West foes this season. The Rams offense had little trouble (other than turnovers) carving up the Bucs defense last Sunday. I think we see a different story unfold here, however. While Matt Stafford has been terrific through the first two playoff games, he hasn't really faced a whole lot of resistance. Here, I'm confident he will against a Niners defense that isn't going to turn blitz-happy the way the Bucs defense did last week, which opened the door for Stafford to find open receivers all game long. Note that the Rams have scored 30+ points in consecutive games for only the second time this season. The last time that happened, they followed it up with a low-scoring 20-10 home win over Seattle the next week. For San Francisco, with an ailing Garoppolo going up against a fierce Rams pass rush, not to mention Trent Williams battling a possible high-ankle sprain, this one will need to be 'managed' just as we saw in the last six quarters of action (since Jimmy G. suffered the shoulder injury in the second quarter against Dallas). The fact that we're working with a fairly low posted total (by today's NFL standards) is the only thing that has me limiting my bet somewhat here. Take the under (8*). |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Playoffs First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday,. The Chiefs have now seen the first half 'over' cash in five straight games. I believe that streak comes to an end on Sunday. The stakes are obviously sky-high in this one as Kansas City looks to advance to a third consecutive Super Bowl while the Bengals look to get there well ahead of schedule in the Joe Burrow era. There's been a pretty solid pattern developing with Bengals first half totals away from home. Cincinnati has scored just 9.6 points on average in the first half on the road this season - north of three points fewer than their overall first half scoring average. While the Chiefs don't figure to generate the same level of pressure on Burrow that the Titans did last week, Kansas City still boasts a capable defense that has excelled in the first half at home this season, giving up just 9.1 points on average. The Bengals defense wasn't pushed all that hard by the Titans last Saturday but it will be here. With that being said, this is a capable defense that I believe can hold up well, at least in the early stages of this game. I certainly don't expect to see the Bengals serve as a 'swinging gate' the way they did in their regular season meeting with the Chiefs, when they gave up a whopping 28 first half points. Keep in mind, after making halftime adjustments, they held the Chiefs vaunted offense to just three points in the entire second half, so we do know they're capable. I'm not convinced that either team wants to get involved in the type of shootout we saw in Cincinnati. Both offenses are certainly capable but effectively shortening this game might be the best course of action for both squads given the talent on the opposing sideline. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in the first half over the last three seasons with the Chiefs having gained an average of over 450 total yards per contest over their last three games, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average first half total of just 24.1 points. Take the first half under (10*). |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -105 | 130 h 17 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been involved in a pair of high-scoring shootouts going back to last year's playoffs so it's not surprising that we're dealing with a total in the mid-50's in advance of Sunday's Divisional Round showdown in Kansas City. I believe that total will prove too high. Both defenses are for the most part healthy entering this clash (with the exception of Tre'Davious White for the Bills who has been sidelined for quite some time). While the offenses generally get all of the press, the two defenses are elite. The Bills check in allowing just 17.5 points per game on the road this season. The Chiefs give up 17.9 points per game at home. While the Chiefs have supreme confidence in their ability to go back-and-forth with any offense in the league, there is some reason for caution here after Buffalo rolled up well over 400 yards and hung 38 points on them here at Arrowhead Stadium back in October. I think it would be foolish to expect a similar performance from the Buffalo offense here, however. The Chiefs defense was a mess going into that matchup, having allowed 29, 36, 30 and 30 points over their first four games of the season. Since then, Kansas City has allowed 21 points or less in nine of 13 games and that 21-point performance came by way of a defensive score from the Steelers last Sunday. The Bills defense has had a giant chip on its shoulder ever since getting run over by the Patriots ground game in that memorable Monday night affair back in early December. They've given up just 77 points over their last five games. I have a lot of respect for both offenses and they'll undoubtedly find some success in this game. But we're talking about an extremely high total here - too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans OVER 47 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -108 | 123 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted with a relatively low-scoring game in the Bengals playoff debut last Saturday. Cincinnati has had a tendency to ease off the gas offensively in games where it hasn't needed to trade scores and we certainly saw that against the Raiders. With that being said, there was nothing I saw from the Bengals offense in that game that gave me pause looking ahead to playing the 'over' in this matchup. Cincinnati was able to move the football up and down the field with little resistance against the Raiders and I like the way it matches up against the Titans as well. Tennessee faced an extremely soft stretch of defensive opponents over the second half of the season. Look at their lineup of opponents going back to Week 10; New Orleans, Houston, New England, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, San Francisco (in a game where Jimmy Garoppolo injured his thumb), Miami and Houston again. Not surprisingly, the Titans defense posted some solid numbers over that stretch while their offense was able to tread water and do just enough to earn the number-one seed. Now the Titans defense will certainly be tested, but I also think their offense will be more than up to the challenge, noting that they're expected to get RB Derrick Henry back on the field while the Bengals lost a number of key defensive cogs to injury in last week's win, with Larry Ogunjobi already ruled out and Trey Hendrickson and Mike Daniels' status still up in the air. These two teams actually matched up last season and combined to score 51 points in a Bengals win in Cincinnati. That game saw a closing total of 49 points. Remember, earlier this season the Titans regularly saw totals posted in the 50's - in six of their first nine games, in fact. This total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. As much as we'd all like to see an entertaining, back-and-forth shootout to close out Wild Card weekend, I don't think we're going to get it when the Cards and Rams match up for the third time this season on Monday night. The Arizona offense is a shadow of its former self right now. It seems like an eternity ago that the Cards boatraced the Rams in a 37-20 stunner here at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. Let's face it, the Cards offense has been hamstrung since losing WE DeAndre Hopkins. The fact that TE Zach Ertz has essentially become the focal point of the passing game is telling. QB Kyler Murray has been running for his life most games (he was sacked five times against Seattle last week). Now he faces a Rams defense that has seemingly figured him out, holding him to just eight all-purpose touchdowns in six career matchups not to mention a very pedestrian 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The last time these two teams met Murray had the benefit of facing a Rams defense that was without Jalen Ramsey due to Covid protocols. With all of that being said, there is a path for the Cards to stay competitive in this game and that involves effectively shortening it by running the football (both James Conner and Chase Edmonds are apparently good to go health-wise) and playing smart, fundamentally-sound defense. Let's face it, the Cards defense wasn't good in last week's loss to the Seahawks. We know they're capable of better though and there is help on the way with J.J. Watt, Jordan Phillips and Marco Wilson expected back from injury. No Watt isn't the game-changer he once was, but his presence is a factor on this defense. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Cards have come off a game in which they allowed 30+ points, with that situation producing an average total of just 41.6 points. The 'under' is also an identical 12-4 in Arizona's last 16 road games and Los Angeles' last 16 home games with those games producing totals well below the number we're working with here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 44.5 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season way back in mid-September. We're likely to see a much different story unfold here as the Packers have little to play for and will likely only field their starters, on offense in particular, for a cameo appearance on Sunday afternoon in Detroit. As for the Lions, their offense has become depleted over the course of the season, missing TE T.J. Hockenson in particular. Despite 35+ pass attempts in four of its last five games, Detroit has topped out at 272 passing yards over that stretch with that performance coming in its first victory of the season against the defense-optional Vikings. I would anticipate a RB De'Andre Swift-centric offensive gameplan from the Lions here and the Packers likely wouldn't oppose to that as they look to get this game over with as quickly as possible and move on to playoff preparations. Note that both regular season meetings between these two NFC North rivals haven't gone 'over' the total since back in 2017. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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01-02-22 | Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 10-50 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the 'over' in games involving the Jaguars in each of the last two weeks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here as we once again deal with a total set in the low-40's. Jacksonville has at least shown some life since ousting much-maligned head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last two games we've seen the Jags attempt a whopping 77 passes, completing 48 of those for well over 400 yards. That's progress as far as I'm concerned. Of course, we should temper expectations here as those last two performances came against the lowly Texans and Jets. That being said, I would expect to see the Jags stay aggressive as a massive underdog here. What do they have to lose? The Patriots on the other hand should absolutely go off in this bounce-back spot off last week's home loss against the Bills. The Jags have shown no semblance of run defense whatsoever, last week allowing the Jets to rush for a whopping 273 yards. That was before they lost a number of run-stuffers to the Covid list late in the week. Here, we'll note that Patriots home games have totalled an average of just shy of 50 points this season. Meanwhile, the Jags for all their problems still put up over 14 points per contest on the road, with those games averaging just shy of 42 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFL MNF 1H Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We'll play the first half total only in this one as there's obviously plenty of uncertainty when it comes to the Saints gameplan on both sides of the football with so many key contributors sidelined. I like the way it sets up as a low-scoring start. While this looks like a slam dunk for the Fins on paper given all of the Saints absences, they'll have to be careful not to overlook New Orleans, which still has many of its defensive anchors on the field. I'm anticipating a more conservative offensive gameplan here after QB Tua Tagovailoa turned the football over twice in last week's win over the Jets, including one interception that was returned for a touchdown. We've seen renewed balance from the Miami offense lately as it has ran the football at least 39 times in two of its last three games and finally appears to have a fully healthy backfield for this one. The Saints are going to be extra-cautious when they have the football with fourth-string QB Ian Book running the offense. We can obviously expect to see a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara in this one. Regardless, I'm not expecting much from the New Orleans offense. Note that the Saints are averaging a woeful 6.0 points in the first half at home this season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, average 9.5 points in the first half on the road. The 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 in the first half of their next game with the Saints coming off a win this season, resulting in an average total of just 14.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 55-33 in the first half with the Fins coming off a win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-26-21 | Bears v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games earlier this week but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. The Bears will likely turn to Nick Foles at quarterback as Justin Fields deals with an ankle injury. Given what we've seen from Fields it's hard to envision much of a downgrade. If anything Foles may be able to do a better job of pushing the football down the field. It's not as if the Bears are bereft of playmakers on offense. RB David Montgomery is in line to go off against a weak Seattle run defense here. The Seahawks got some good news as WR Tyler Lockett sounds like he'll be able to play. Chicago's defense continues to play on without a number of key contributors and doesn't figure to offer much resistance here. Robert Quinn and the Bears pass rush is certainly a concern but I think the Seahawks can stay balanced and find some success regardless, noting that they scored 30 points in their lone home game over their last four contests. Take the over (9*). |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Jaguars home loss to the Texans last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jags offense did show some signs of life or at least some semblance of an identity in last week's loss - the first game of the post-Urban Meyer era. RB James Robinson should be the focal point of the Jags offense moving forward and he figures to go off against the Jets league-worst run defense. New York is favored for a reason here, however, and I would anticipate the Jets offense enjoying some success against a Jags defense that will be missing arguably its best player in DE Josh Allen. Despite gaining only 228 total yards of offense in last week's loss in Miami, the Jets still managed to manufacture 24 points. They'll be taking a considerable step down in class against the Jags here and I expect them to turn Zach Wilson loose (which as we know could lead to points for either team). Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. After watching the Titans dismal offensive performance against the Steelers last Sunday this is a bit of a 'plug-your-nose and bet it' type of play on Thursday night but I love the way it sets up. The 49ers offense is set up to go off both on the ground and through the air as Jimmy G. in particular remains an undervalued commodity, even after a string of top flight performances. The question becomes whether the Titans offense can keep up, but I believe they can. Derrick Henry remains sidelined, as does Julio Jones. However, Tennessee got some good news with the return of WR A.J. Brown. He's in line to go off against a very beatable 49ers pass defense here. I'm still a believer in Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, even after last Sunday's ugly performance against the Steelers. The 49ers defense is thought of as a top-level unit but it has been getting regularly torched by opposing wide receivers. Last week's mistake-laden effort in Pittsburgh couldn't have sat well with the Titans. I expect them to come out aggressively as a result here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 46.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here, Seattle is going to relish playing the spoiler role down the stretch. The Seahawks could have folded the tent but instead they’re playing well off consecutive wins and I don’t expect them to roll over against the division rival Rams, in a revenge spot no less. On the flip side, the Rams are making up for lost time in a sense as well and should tee off on a very beatable Seahawks defense here - just as they did in the season’s first meeting. The loser gets to 21-24 points in this one and that should cash our ticket with ease. Take the over (8*). |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With all of the Bears projected absences on defense due to Covid protocols and other various injuries and ailments there's absolutely no excuse for the Vikings not to approach 30 points in this game. The Vikes are still missing WR Adam Thielen but the emergence of K.J. Osborn certainly lessens the blow. This one should be all about RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson anyway. Cook is in a smash spot against a very beatable Bears run defense that as I mentioned is missing a number of key cogs. Jefferson is always a strong candidate to find the end zone and he's likely to avoid Bears standout CB Jaylon Johnson here as he was moved to the Covid list on Sunday. The question becomes whether the Bears can do enough to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. Few teams have struggled as badly against opposing wide receivers as the Vikings this season and Bears rookie QB Justin Fields seems to be building a better rapport with his receiving corps with each passing week. WR Darnell Mooney brings the big play potential but it's actually Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant that I would keep an eye on in this one. Allen Robinson is likely going to be sidelined after hitting the Covid list but he's never been on the same page as Fields this season anyway, coming off another low-key performance last Sunday in Green Bay. The Vikings have been anything but stout against the run this season opening the door for a possible big game from Bears RB David Montgomery as well. Take the over (10*). |
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12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns OVER 41 | 16-14 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Cleveland at 5 pm et on Monday. Even with all of the uncertainly around Covid-related absences leading up to this game, I believe the potential is there for a relatively high-scoring affair. That's definitely a contrarian take when you consider the Raiders have been held to 16 or less points in five of their last six games. With that being said I like the way this one sets up for a couple of skill players in particular, those being WR Hunter Renfrow and RB Josh Jacobs. Renfrow should feast on an undermanned Browns secondary that has allowed opponents to complete 69% of their passes over their last eight games. Things don't figure to get better in that regard with a number of key cogs in the Cleveland pass defense sidelined for this one. Meanwhile, the Cleveland run defense has been average at best this season and we have seen Jacobs find the end zone in two of the last three games. On the flip side, the Browns QB situation remains clouded with Nick Mullens the most likely candidate to play in this one. I'm not sure it matters all that much as this one should be all about RB Nick Chubb who figures to go off against a weak Raiders run defense that allows 125 rush yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush this season. Vegas' pass defense checks in having allowed a whopping 7.9 yards per pass attempt over its last three games and has been particularly soft against opposing tight ends this season. While the Browns are unlikely to have TE Austin Hooper for this game, that is a position where they do boast considerable depth. Take the over (8*). |
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12-19-21 | Bengals v. Broncos UNDER 45 | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos saw their six-game 'under' streak come to an end in last Sunday's 38-10 rout of the Lions. That outcome had everything to do with Detroit's inability to control the game (or the football). I expect a different story to unfold here. I generally like playing Bengals 'overs' in games where they're projected to be playing from behind. I'm not convinced that's the case here. QB Joe Burrow leads what at times looks like one of the most explosive offenses in the league. At others, he's relegated to game-manager and I can see that being the case here against a Broncos defense that has held up well against the pass and the run. On the flip side, the Bengals defense has held six straight opponents to fewer than 300 yards passing and the Broncos don't figure to test that streak here, noting that they've thrown for 250 yards or less in seven consecutive games. Cincinnati has also held four straight opponents to 100 yards rushing or less. Note that on two previous occasions where they scored 28 points or more in a game this season, the Broncos proceeded to score 13 and 9 points the next week. Take the under (9*). |
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12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 42.5 | 13-19 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Steelers loss in Minnesota last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Let's face it, the Steelers defense is horrible. Yes, they'll get T.J. Watt and Joe Haden back this week but as far as I'm concerned this unit is broken. While the Titans are still injury-depleted on offense, I'm confident enough in their aggressive play-calling and in QB Ryan Tannehill that they can continue to expose the Steelers shoddy defense here. On the flip side, the Titans defense hasn't been particularly good as a whole this season either. With that being said that unit is coming off a shutout performance last week. That came against the lowly Jaguars, however, in what turned out to be head coach Urban Meyer's swan-song. The Steelers offense has quietly been putting points on the board and should find some success in this desperation spot at home. We're being given a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (9*). |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's hard not to envision the Jaguars offense getting a much-needed boost following the firing of head coach Urban Meyer. This is a smash spot for the Jags offense against a Texans defense that has never been able to find its footing this season and has been absolutely drummed by opposing ground attacks. Jags RB James Robinson was inexplicably in Meyer's doghouse but should be unleashed under interim head coach Darrell Bevell's guidance. If Robinson can get going in this one that should really open things up for Lawrence, who faces the Texans very beatable defense for the second time this season. Let's give credit where credit is due; Texans QB Davis Mills has shown signs of improvement recently and given the way the Jags secondary has struggled to defend opposing wide receivers, there's reason to believe Mills can enjoy another fine day on the statsheet on Sunday. As long as the Texans have a healthy Brandin Cooks they have the ability to move the chains and put points on the board. Let's not forget that the last time these two teams met, way back in Week 1, the Texans scored a season-high 37 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting a defensive slugfest between these two old AFC rivals on Saturday night but I think we're in for an entertaining, relatively high-scoring affair. As the total continues to drop we'll step in now with a play on the 'over'. All most remember when it comes to the Patriots is that run-dominated 14-10 in windy Buffalo two Mondays ago. However, the Pats enter this game having posted their six highest point totals of the entire season over the last eight games alone. Take away that wind-induced low-scoring performance in Buffalo and you'll see just how consistent New England has been offensively on the road, scoring 25, 25, 27, 24 and 25 points in their five other road contests. As for the Colts, three of their four highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last three games as they've put up 41, 31 and 31 points. They know they're going to need to put some points on the board in order to prevail in this game as their defense simply hasn't held up well against the run (allowing 4.5 yards per rush) and they figure to face an onslaught from the Pats ground attack here. Don't discount Mac Jones in this one though either. He has completed 22 or more passes in nine of 13 games this season. Finally, I'll point out that the Pats haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with four straight 'unders'. Meanwhile, the Colts have yet to post back-to-back 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. All three primetime games went 'over' the total last week but I expect a different story to unfold as the division-rival Chiefs and Chargers kick off Week 15 with a good matchup on Thursday night. The Chargers defense has actually had the Chiefs number since the start of last season, allowing only 24, 23 and 21 points in three matchups, winning two of those. While Los Angeles did light up the Kansas City defense for 30 points in the last matchup between these two teams back in September, there's no question the Chiefs 'D' is playing much better now. While Kansas City will be without key pass rusher Chris Jones for this one, the Chargers will be without arguably their best o-lineman in rookie Rashawn Slater. That's not to mention the fact that WR Keenan Allen is coming out of Covid protocols after missing last week's game while RB Austin Ekeler is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. To put it simply, I don't expect Chargers QB Justin Herbert to enjoy the same level of success he did against Kansas City back in September. The Chargers defensive strength has been against the pass this season as they come in having held their last seven opponents to 138-of-235 (59%) passing - awful numbers for opposing QB's by today's NFL standards. Yes, you can beat the Chargers on the ground but the Chiefs by no means possess a dominant ground attack. With so much on the line in this one, I'm confident we'll see points come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers OVER 43 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm not anticipating any sort of old-school defensive struggle between these two NFC North rivals on Sunday night in Green Bay. When these two teams met in Chicago earlier this season they combined to score only 38 points. The Bears defense has fallen apart since then, though. They've given up 29 points or more in four of six games since that 24-14 loss to Green Bay. The story is more about who's not on the field than who is when it comes to Chicago's injury-ravaged defense. While the Bears did allow 'only' 33 points against Arizona last Sunday, the damage could have been much worse were it not for the Cards simply easing QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins back into game action after missing extended time due to injury. The Bears have quietly been slinging the football all over the field in recent weeks and should employ a similar gameplan as they'll likely be playing from behind for much of the night on Sunday. Note that they've attempted 34, 39 and 41 passes in their last three contests. You would have to go back to Halloween to find the last time they ran the football 30+ times in a game. The last time these two teams met at Lambeau Field they combined to score 66 points last season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans OVER 40.5 | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. While I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams on Sunday afternoon, I do believe this relatively low posted total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks offense has made some progress with QB Russell Wilson seemingly getting more comfortable as he continues to recover from his finger injury. Last Sunday Wilson took a step in the right direction, throwing for just shy of 300 yards in a win over the 49ers. You can see that the big plays are there, Wilson simply needs to do a better job of putting the football in the right location. He should have little trouble doing so against a Texans defense that has no semblance of a pass rush and has been thrown all over by any opposing offense with a pulse this season. Rookie QB Davis Mills gets his second stint as the Texans starter under center in place of an ineffective Tyrod Taylor. The Texans would be wise to attack the Seahawks defense through the air in this one as Seattle is now without safety Jamal Adams while corner Quandre Diggs is banged up and questionable to play on Sunday as well. You can certainly envision a scenario where the Seahawks defense suffers a letdown here following a two-game stretch that saw it play on Monday Night Football and then at home against the division-rival 49ers. In two previous indoor games this season the Seahawks allowed a combined 46 points and 789 total yards at Indy and Minnesota. The Texans may appear to pose little offensive threat on paper but the Seahawks haven't exactly been a trustworthy squad this season. Take the over (8*). |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been strongly trending to the 'under' lately but that only serves to set us up with value on the 'over' on Sunday as they match up for the first time this season. Dallas didn't have to score a whole lot against an extremely limited Saints offense last week but still managed to put 27 points on the board. With a couple of extra days of rest between games (that game against New Orleans was on Thursday) the Cowboys banged-up weapons on offense, namely Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott have had extra time to get back closer to full strength. I expect them to be all systems go for this favorable matchup on Sunday. Washington hasn't been able to stop or even slow opposing passing games. They've given up 20+ pass completions in six of their last seven games. Here, they'll be without yet another pass rusher in Montez Sweat as he is on the Covid list and being un-vaccinated is unable to play on Sunday. Dak Prescott has the potential to absolutely go off in this one. Washington is coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs. Similar to Dallas' relatively low-scoring performance against the Saints last week, the Football Team hasn't had to score much to secure its last two victories against Seattle and Las Vegas. We should see a different story here, however. Washington WR Terry McLaurin should absolutely wreck Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs, who has been outstanding at intercepting the football but horrible at covering opposing wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Dallas run defense has shown some major cracks in recent weeks, allowing just shy of 5.0 yards per rush over its last three games. Everything should be on the table for QB Taylor Heinecke and the Washington offense in this one. Note that the Football Team scored 25 and 41 points in two meetings against Dallas last season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Minnesota at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I don't agree with the move at all as this total has dropped a few points since opening. The Vikings defense is one of the worst in the league in its current form and even with the Steelers boasting a QB that's well past his prime in Ben Roethlisberger and play-calling that leaves a lot to be desired at times, I'm willing to bet on skill players like WR Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson and RB Najee Harris in this matchup. Minnesota has allowed a whopping 94 points over its last three games. Pittsburgh's defense carries a 'brand name' reputation but certainly hasn't performed up to par for much of the campaign, due to injuries and otherwise. The big news here is that the Vikes offense will be without RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen - a big reason for the downward shift in the total. That being said, I like the depth the Vikes possess on offense. RB Alexander Mattison is a Dalvin Cook clone while WR K.J. Osborn is capable of picking up some of the slack in Thielen's absence. The Steelers will undoubtedly have their hands full with Vikes WR Justin Jefferson, who should have another monster performance here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Seattle's 17-15 loss in Washington on Monday night - we weren't even close with that one. Seattle has now seen the 'under' cash in five straight games and that's a trend I see continuing here. The Seahawks point totals going back to October 7th are 17, 20, 10, 31, 0, 13 and 15. The one outlier was a 31-point outburst against Jacksonville in a game that still stayed 'under' the total. I have, however, been impressed by the way the Seahawks have defended lately and they're well-positioned to slow an undermanned 49ers offense that will be without its best weapon, WR Deebo Samuel here. The Niners offense is in a classic contrarian fade spot after scoring 30+ points in three straight games. Note that the Seahawks have turned into a bit of a pass funnel defense lately and I think that will work out fine in this matchup. San Francisco wants to run the football - noting that it has 39 or more rush attempts in each of its last three games. Seattle has limited opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush - opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush on the season. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have given up just 3.3 ypr. While the Niners offense has been explosive points-wise, they've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. The Seahawks are always going to remain committed to the run as long as Pete Carroll is the head coach (which may not be for much longer). That doesn't mean they'll find success on the ground, however, noting that they've rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49 | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chargers continued their frustrating trend of alternating good and bad performances offensively in an ugly 28-13 loss in Denver last Sunday. As has been the case all season long, I expect them to bounce back offensively in this favorable matchup in Cincinnati on Sunday. After scoring 20 or less points this season, Los Angeles has put up 30, 24 and 41 points in its next game. Here, it faces a Bengals squad in line for a bit of a letdown after holding their last two opponents to a grand total of just 23 points. Keep in mind, in their two previous games they had been torched for 75 points. On the flip side, the Bengals are well-positioned to build off of last week's 41-point explosion against the Steelers as the Chargers check in having allowed 42, 34, 27, 24, 27, 37 and 28 points over their last six contests. Yes, Los Angeles is capable of stopping the pass, but the Bengals are just fine with pounding the football in Joe Mixon, who has quietly led one of the best ground attacks in football, averaging 4.5 yards per rush over their last three games. Unlike the last couple of games where the Bengals have been able to take their foot off the gas and throw the football only 29 and 25 times, I do expect the game script to require Joe Burrow to sling it around a little more here, also favoring the 'over'. Take the over (9*). |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. NOTE: Will downgrade this to a 7* play with Alvin Kamara officially ruled out. I can really see this game going a couple of different ways - either the Cowboys take their frustrations out on the reeling Saints and ultimately run up the score, or New Orleans rides the emotion of playing a second straight primetime home game after last week's debacle against Buffalo, with it's do-it-all RB Alvin Kamara back on the field to an upset victory. Either way, I believe we're set up well for a high-scoring affair. We've seen this total come down a bit since opening. That's largely due to the uncertainty around who will start at quarterback for the Saints and who will be healthy enough to take the field for the Cowboys offense. We're likely going to see Taysom Hill take over under center for the Saints. There's only one reason for that move, and that's to give the offense a spark after four consecutive losses. It's easy to forget that even with a struggling Trevor Siemian at quarterback for the majority of the action, the Saints had put up over 20 points in three consecutive games prior to last Thursday's blowout defeat. As I mentioned, the Saints are also likely to get RB Alvin Kamara back on the field for this one. I don't need to tell you that he's the heart-and-soul of this offense with Drew Brees having retired and Michael Thomas sidelined due to injury. Speaking of players getting back on the field, the Cowboys should have both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back for this one. Even without that dynamic duo, Dallas still scored 33 points in last week's overtime loss to the Raiders. As long as the Cowboys have a healthy Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore aggressively calling plays on offense, there's reason to believe they can light up the scoreboard. The Saints defense, while stout at times, has sagged lately, largely due to shouldering so much of the load over the course of the season. Over their last four games, the Saints have allowed opponents to connect on better than 72% of their passes. The last two meetings in this series have been extremely low-scoring, totaling just 23 and 22 points. That's only serving to give us additional value with the 'over' in this one. Take the over (7*). |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Seahawks season is long lost and after scoring a combined 13 points in Russell Wilson's first two games back from injury it's no surprise that bettors are spooked from backing them, or the 'over' in this matchup on Monday night. Seattle's last four games haven't come close to sniffing an 'over' result but I expect a different story to unfold here. There's little reason for the Seahawks to hold anything back from an offensive gameplanning standpoint in this one. Yes, Pete Carroll is always going to employ a run-first gameplan but due to a limited backfield as a result of a cluster of injuries, we've seen the Seahawks shift away from that somewhat since Russ' return. Game script has had something to do with that as well as the Seahawks have been trailing for the majority of the time in their last two games. Nevertheless, we've seen Seattle run the ball just 16 and 19 times in its last two games while throwing it a combined 66 times. Here, the Seahawks should benefit from facing a depleted Washington defense that is without its top two pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Opponents have rightfully attacked Washington through the air with considerable success, completing 90-of-122 (74%) pass attempts over the last four games. On the flip side, the Seahawks defense has been mercilessly assaulted by opposing passing games, allowing an average of 40 pass attempts per game this season. Last week, the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals offense completed 35-of-44 passes for 318 yards through the air. Washington QB Taylor Heinecke is an underrated passer and isn't afraid to take chances, which should work to his benefit as his receivers led by Terry McLaurin own an advantage against the Seahawks depleted secondary (they lost CB Tre Brown to injury in last week's game). It sounds like TE Logan Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel could be back on Monday as well to further bolster a very capable Washington offense. Heinecke should have plenty of time to operate against a Seahawks defense that sits last in the league in sack rate this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 35 points here in Washington. That, along with the fact that both teams have strongly trended to the 'under' in recent weeks and months helps keep this total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings huge win over the Packers last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Minnesota's offense has taken flight ever since that embarrassing performance at home against the Cowboys on Halloween Night. Over their last three games, the Vikes have scored a whopping 92 points. While the 49ers have allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined I don't see this as an all-that-imposing matchup for the Minnesota offense. Vikes WR Justin Jefferson is absolutely abusing opposing secondaries and the 49ers pass defense doesn't match up particularly well. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense has quietly come around, scoring 30 or more points in three of their last four contests. A healthy TE George Kittle has certainly made a big difference. Here, the Niners catch an undermanned Vikings defense that showed plenty of holes in last week's narrow victory over the Packers. Whether the Niners choose to attack the Vikes on the ground or through the air they should be able to find considerable success. Take the over (9*). |
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11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a high-scoring game against the Saints last week - in fact, they've seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests. It generally takes two to push a game 'over' the total, however, and I'm not sure we'll see a shootout in this one. The Giants defense hasn't really been the problem this season. I expect to see them keep things simple as they try to contain the big plays and minimize the effectiveness of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts on Sunday. On the flip side, New York hands the offensive keys over to Freddie Kitchens after firing Jason Garrett on Tuesday. I don't envision a sudden turnaround for the G-Men offensively under Kitchens. If anything we'll likely see a renewed focus on the ground game with RB Saquon Barkley presumably back to full health. The Eagles are no pushovers against the run, however, allowing 119 rush yards or less in seven straight games entering Sunday's contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is on a stellar 43-19 run when the Eagles come off a game that totaled 60 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 points. The 'under' is also 12-3 in the Giants last 15 games with a total of between 42.5 and 49 points, producing an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | 36-33 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. With a banged-up offense that could be without its top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, I'm expecting the Cowboys to methodically move the football with long, clock-churning drives on offense while leaning on their defense to take care of the rest in what I feel projects as a relatively low-scoring game in Big D on Thursday afternoon. The Raiders are just looking to sustain a drive or two at this point. They've been held to just 16, 14 and 13 points over their last three games and this doesn't figure to be an ideal 'get right' spot against a Cowboys team coming off an ugly loss in Kansas City on Sunday. The wheels have quite simply come off for the Raiders offense as teams have counter-punched their renewed commitment to play action under coordinator Greg Olson. In the last two games combined, Las Vegas has only managed to muster 32 rush attempts and 62 pass attempts and both of those games were played at home where you would assume it would be able to control the tempo of the game a little better. The Cowboys defense quietly continues to dominate. Over their last six games they've allowed a miserly 111-of-188 (59%) passing. Over their last five contests they haven't allowed a single opponent to throw for more than 244 yards. Only the Broncos were really able to make much headway on the ground, and as you know that game was a bit of an anomaly as the Cowboys inexplicably fell by a 30-16 score. Take the under (9*). |
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11-21-21 | Texans v. Titans OVER 44.5 | 22-13 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's easy to forget that this matchup produced two of the highest-scoring games of the entire 2020 season, totaling 78 and 79 points. The Texans obviously aren't the same offensive team as they were a year ago. With that being said, I do think they can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably low total. Tyrod Taylor will get another shot at the starting quarterback job despite performing horribly in a road game against the Dolphins prior to the bye. This is actually a favorable matchup for the Texans offense as the Titans defense is by no means dominant. Note that Houston does continue to bomb away, attempting 43, 32, 39 and 44 passes in its last four games. Having dealt away veteran RB Mark Ingram, the Texans have little interest in pounding the rock, running the football 18 times or less in three consecutive games. On the flip side, the Titans offense should absolutely unload on an awful Texans defense in this one. There's an interesting narrative at play here with Titans lead back D'Onta Foreman facing the team that drafted him before casting him away following a devastating injury in 2018. No Derrick Henry, no problem. At least this week as Houston has been flamed for 150 rush yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush on the road this season. Of course, the Texans haven't been any better against the pass, giving up 7.7 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average just 6.8 yppa this season. Take the over (9*). |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bills and the 'over' in the Jets blowout loss last week here at home. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the New York hosts Miami. The Jets will turn to veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback. I don't need to tell you how much that should limit the offense. Flacco is more or less in there to be a 'game manager' as this appears to be a decent chance for the Jets to earn a rare victory, at least on paper. While we've seen New York really open up the playbook with Mike White under center, I don't think that will be the case with Flacco at the helm. On the flip side, while we can project moderate success for the Dolphins offense against a reeling Jets defense, I don't expect an offensive explosion. Miami has a very pedestrian ground attack, which is the area where the Jets defense has struggled most. The Miami passing attack remains undermanned, leaning heavily on rookie WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki in the absence of Devante Parker and Will Fuller. Note that you would have to go all the way back to October of 2017 to find the last time a matchup in this series topped 44 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has inexplicably cashed in each of the Packers last seven games and five of the Vikings last seven contests overall. That is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, when these two division rivals met here at U.S. Bank Stadium last season they combined to score a whopping 77 points. The return matchup in Green Bay totaled 50 points. The Packers last two games have reached only 20 and 17 points but those were in unique circumstances. Two games back Green Bay was without Aaron Rodgers in Kansas City. Last week, it didn't need to keep its foot on the gas offensively as the Seahawks offense was severely limited with Russell Wilson clearly not 100% healthy in his first game back from injury. Here, I think both teams will gameplan aggressively on offense knowing they're going to need to put up plenty of points to prevail. The Packers have held up well despite missing some key cogs on defense. Now they'll be without do-it-all RB Aaron Jones as well but I'm confidence in A.J. Dillon's ability to fill the void in the backfield. Vikes QB Kirk Cousins has been wildly inconsistent but I think he can find some success in this matchup. Note that in last year's two matchups, the Vikes offense held the ball for just over 18 and 27 minutes but still managed to score 34 and 28 points in those two games respectively. I'm banking on a shootout on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots UNDER 45.5 | 7-45 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams will enter this game confident that they can lean on running the football and playing tough defense to earn a much-needed victory on Sunday afternoon. Don't be misled by the Browns wild, high-scoring 41-16 rout of Cincinnati last week. The Bengals simply didn't take care of the football in that game and Cleveland took full advantage. It's not as if the Browns offense had to do much of the heavy lifting in that contest. They gained just 361 total yards and completed only 14 passes in the victory. New England somewhat inexplicably had a four-game 'over' streak going prior to last week's low-scoring affair against the Panthers. Note that they've racked up well north of 30 rushing attempts in three straight games while completing 18 or fewer passes in three of their last four games overall. Running the football on offense - and effectively shortening the game - while playing stout defense is a formula that has worked for Bill Bellichick this season and I can't see him straying from that in this very manageable matchup with the Browns. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Browns have come off a win by 21 points or more, resulting in an average total of only 32.8 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-3 in the Patriots last 14 games where the total has been set between 42.5 and 49 points, as is the case here, producing an average total of 42.7 points in that situation. Take the under (8*). |
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 3-43 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. We ended up just missing with the 'over' in the Cowboys stunning blowout loss to the Broncos here last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this Sunday as Dallas hosts Atlanta. The Falcons are in a clear letdown spot after a wild upset win over the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. While I don't expect Atlanta to notch a second straight underdog victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the total. The Cowboys have been vulnerable against tight ends this season and the Falcons obviously have a good one in rookie Kyle Pitts. We've seen Falcons veteran QB Matt Ryan settle in a little bit in recent weeks, save for an ugly defensive slugfest against the Panthers, and here I think we can have confidence that we'll see him bomb away, noting that he's thrown for 325 yards or more in three of the last four contests. On the flip side, the Cowboys offense is set to eat against a very beatable Falcons defense on Sunday. We did see Dak Prescott and the offense round into form late in last week's loss, even if that had more to do with game script playing from well behind than anything else. We know that this offense is far better than it showed in that game against Denver - I think the argument can be made that the Cowboys overlooked a Broncos squad that was ravaged with injuries and had just dealt away its best defensive player in Von Miller. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Dallas' last two games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 the last 15 times the Cowboys have come off an upset home loss by two touchdowns or more. Over the last 2+ seasons we've seen Dallas post a 9-1 o/u record when coming off an upset loss of any kind, with that situation producing an average total of 59.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NFL First Half Total of the Week. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We've taken advantage of some lofty first half totals on a number of occasions on Monday Night Football this season, including last week as we cashed the 'under' in the first half of the Giants-Chiefs matchup. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I see this as a fine spot for both offenses to get off to strong starts at Heinz Field. Chicago showed some signs of life offensively against San Francisco last week - even if it was in a losing effort. QB Justin Fields looked as comfortable throwing the football as he has all season. On Chicago's first drive of the game Fields was 4-for-4 for 46 yards passing - a drive that ultimately ended with a made field goal. In fact, all three of Chicago's first half drives resulted in points on the board - 13 in all. Pittsburgh's pass rush offers a difficult challenge for Fields and he'll undoubtedly take some sacks and hits but I do think his mobility helps and the Bears receivers should have an advantage against a Steelers secondary that has struggled against the pass. Also note that the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 4.2 yards per rush, opening things up for underrated Bears rookie RB Khalil Herbert. Steelers dinosaur QB Ben Roethlisberger catches a break here as Khalil Mack remains sidelined for the Bears, taking away their best pass-rushing piece. They're also likely to be without another one of their top defenders in S Eddie Jackson. The Bears defense hasn't been stout against the run at the best of times and Steelers rookie RB Najee Harris is evolving into a bigger factor each week. He should go off in this matchup. Like the Steelers, the Bears secondary has generally been soft against opposing wide receivers. My concern with playing the full game 'over' in this one is the potential game script should the Steelers hold a lead in the second half. There's a good chance they elect to salt the game away with their ground attack in that scenario. In general, I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Chicago coaching staff drawing up the right plays in high-pressure situations late. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-07-21 | Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think a lot of bettors are quick to dismiss the Broncos offense and skeptical of their ability to contribute enough points to help this one 'over' the lofty total. I have no such concerns. Denver will head into this game inside the friendly confines of Jerry World knowing that it will need to put up plenty of points to potentially keep pace with the high-octane Cowboys, especially with QB Dak Prescott likely to be back on the field. With WR Jerry Jeudy back in the mix, the Broncos do have some weapons to work with on offense and while the Cowboys secondary boasts plenty of flash and ball-hawking ability, it has also given up plenty of yardage (and points). I don't think we'll see the Broncos bang their heads against the wall all afternoon trying to run the football. Instead look for QB Teddy Bridgewater to take some shots downfield and potentially find some success against a beatable Cowboys pass defense. Meanwhile, the Dallas offense should feast against a severely depleted Broncos defense that was already without Bradley Chubb but now loses defensive anchor Von Miller (traded to the Rams) and key pass defender Bryce Callahan (knee injury). Trying to defend the likes of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb is going to be an absolute nightmare for the Broncos defense here and that's before we even mention Dallas' incredible ground attack that ranks among the best in the league. With a cluster of injuries in their linebacking corps, there's little reason to have confidence in the Broncos run defense against the two-headed monster of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard on Sunday. Take the over (9*). |
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Ravens most recent game two weeks ago at home against the Bengals. That turned out to be a 'rocking chair' variety winner as the Bengals exploded on an overrated Ravens defense. Here, I look for the Ravens offense to bounce back in a big way as they come off their bye week and face an undermanned Vikings defense that is without Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson among others. While I'm not sure the majority of casual bettors have taken notice, the Ravens offense is no longer the run-first unit we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. With no true bell-cow in the backfield, they've began to shift to a more pass-friendly offense and that should continue to pay dividends for 'over' backers moving forward. This is a favorable spot for Ravens WR Hollywood Brown to go off. Mark Andrews has been the focal point of the Baltimore passing game recently but he's at risk of getting locked up by the Vikes solid linebacking corps in this one. Look for the Ravens receiving corps to shine here. On the flip side, the Vikes offense didn't look good against the Cowboys last Sunday night. Perhaps Minnesota got caught looking past a Dak-less Cowboys squad. I simply chalk it up to inconsistency, something we've come to expect from Vikes QB Kirk Cousins. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot for Cousins and the loaded Minnesota offense. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should feast against a Ravens defense that has given up the fourth-most pass completions of 20 yards or more this season. Vikes RB Dalvin Cook is in a smash spot as well as the Ravens defensive front has been repeatedly shredded this season, giving up nine touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Colts overtime loss to the Titans on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they stay home to host the upstart Jets on a short week on Thursday night. Mike White-mania has taken hold in New York after the QB led the Jets to a stunning 34-31 win over the Bengals on Sunday. Let's not get too carried away though. The Jets caught the Bengals in an obvious letdown spot off a monster blowout win over the rival Ravens the previous week. Cincinnati's defense might have got caught reading a little too much of their own press leading into that one and certainly appeared to overlook White's ability to move the Jets offense and put points on the board. Don't expect the Colts to fall into the same trap here. Indianapolis has to feel that the AFC South is still up for grabs, especially with the new that Titans RB Derrick Henry will miss 6-10 weeks with a foot injury. With that being said, Frank Reich probably doesn't want his QB Carson Wentz throwing the football 50+ times again like he did on Sunday against the Titans. We saw that the Jets defense can be opportunistic against the Bengals. Credit New York for limiting Cincinnati to just north of 300 total yards in that game. The majority of the Bengals offense in that game came thanks to turnovers from the Jets offense. Knowing that, I'm confident predicting a more conservative gameplan from Robert Saleh's Jets offense here. The Colts come in having scored 30+ points in three straight games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'under' is a long-term winner at 60-40 with the Colts playing at home off a loss, resulting in an average total of just 42.6 points. The 'under' is also 48-30 with the Jets playing on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 37.6 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NFL MNF First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an obvious 'get right' spot for the Chiefs against a lowly Giants squad that looks ripe for the picking coming off a 25-3 win over the Panthers last week. Most are expecting the Chiefs offense to lay waste to a depleted Giants defense here but I believe another slow start from Patrick Mahomes and company could be in order. Keep in mind, the Chiefs are averaging only 8.7 points in the first half here at home this season. On the flip side, they're giving up a whopping 20.0 points on average in the first half at home - a number I certainly expect them to improve on against a Giants squad that will simply be looking to hold onto the football and effectively shorten this game given their lack of offensive weaponry due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the G-Men are averaging just shy of 7.0 points in the first half this season, topping out at 10 points through their first seven games. They reached that 10-point mark in the first half twice previously, in Dallas and Washington - more favorable matchups than the one they'll face here in my opinion. While the potential is certainly there for the Chiefs to come out and boatrace the Giants and take care of this first half total all on their own, given their inconsistency on offense I don't see it happening. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 26-4 in the first half over the last 10 seasons when a team comes off an upset road loss by two touchdowns or more in the first half of the season, as is the case with the Chiefs here, resulting in an average total of just 17.8 points. That situation has gone a perfect 13-0 over the last five seasons. Take the first half under (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Entering the season I had the Jaguars and Seahawks pegged as having two of the league's worst defenses. While both teams have trended to the 'under' through the first seven weeks of the season, that's had more to do with the inept nature of their offenses (and an injury to Russell Wilson for Seattle) than anything else. With that being said, I do see this as a potential breakout spot for both offenses. The Jags are coming off their bye week, giving them an extra week to perhaps add a couple of extra wrinkles to an offense that did show some signs of life prior to the bye. They certainly haven't been afraid to sling the ball all over the field, with rookie QB Trevor Lawrence attempting more than 30 passes in five of six games to date. The Seahawks offense has labored with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm but the big play potential is certainly still there with WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the field (we saw that as Metcalf had a long touchdown catch on Monday night against New Orleans). Note that when we last saw the Jags they were giving up a whopping 354 passing yards against Tua Tagovailoa and a struggling Miami offense in London. While the Jags have posted a 2-4 o/u record this season, they've actually gone 'over' the number we're dealing with on Sunday in four of six games to date. Off Monday's staggeringly low-scoring game in Seattle, I believe Sunday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these two teams fizzled as a banged-up Carson Wentz wasn't able to get anything going offensively for the Colts in a 25-16 loss in Tennessee, snapping a three-game 'over' streak in this series. Here, I expect things to go back to 'normal' in this series with a shootout in Indianapolis. The Colts offense is red hot right now and has been for a number of weeks. With that in mind, I expect offensive-minded head coach Frank Reich to orchestrate an aggressive offensive gameplan here, knowing that his team is going to need to put up plenty of points to outlast a surging Titans squad. Tennessee has come to life offensively over the last few weeks, scoring 98 points in three games - all victories. I still have my concerns when it comes to the Titans defense, however. They held the mighty Chiefs to only three points in a very strange game last Sunday but that had more to do with game script than anything else as the Titans got off to a blazing start and never looked back. Neither team has been particularly stout against the run this season with the Titans checking in having allowed north of 100 rush yards in six straight games (despite winning five of those) and the Colts having given up over 100 rushing yards in four straight and six of seven contests this season. Indy won its last two games by double-digit margins yet still gave up well over 300 yards rushing in those two contests. I point that out as both teams boast all-world running backs and it really opens everything up for the two offenses. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Titans have come off three wins in their last four games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 56.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 49.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total has now fallen into playable range for us thanks to the Packers missing two of their top offensive weapons in WRs Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. I'm not overly concerned by their absence. The Packers gameplan doesn't really change. They knew they were going to have to play aggressively on offense in this one, knowing that they're unlikely to limit the Cardinals offense (remember, Green Bay is still without two of its best defensive players in CB Jaire Alexander and pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith). Note that the Packers are coming off four straight 'under' results, which also helps keep this total is a reasonable range. Every once in a while you will see the high-octane Cardinals get involved in a low-scoring affair. It just so happens that we've seen it in two of their last three games. Those games were against San Francisco (with rookie QB Trey Lance starting at the time) and Houston (with struggling rookie Davis Mills at quarterback). Even without Adams, the Packers offense is still more than capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard as last time I checked Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones were still healthy. Thanks to recent blowout wins, the Cardinals haven't had to really keep their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters. Make no mistake though, their offense is more than capable of marching up and down the field and scoring in bunches in this one. They've put up 30+ points in six of seven games and that's with five of those games resulting in a margin of victory in the double-digits. In what should be a more competitive affair on Thursday, I think the potential is there for a shootout. Take the over (8*). |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Lamar Jackson has made a habit of laying waste to the Bengals defense and as he checks into this game playing some of the best football of his career, we can anticipate more of the same on Sunday. The question when it comes to the total in this game is whether Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense can be along for the ride and help this one 'over' the very reasonable number. I believe he and they can and will. The Chargers quite simply didn't show up for last week's much-hyped showdown with the Ravens. We won with Baltimore in that game as the Ravens jumped ahead early and salted the game away from there. Here, I believe we'll see the Bengals find a way to stick around in this game, just as they have in virtually every game this season. The Ravens defense hasn't been particularly dominant against the run or the pass - due to injuries or otherwise. Last week's solid boxscore numbers for the defense had everything to do with the Chargers throwing their offensive gameplan out the window after the deficit got out of hand. While this game isn't likely to be a true shootout, it doesn't have to be for us to cash this ticket given the range the total currently sits in. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Ravens have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 53.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It's going to take a monumental defensive effort to slow the Bucs offense right now (yes, I realize they're just one game removed from a heavy rain-induced slugfest in New England) as they feature a number of elite players performing at a career-best levels. Tom Brady is averaging north of 350 passing yards per game and has already racked up 15 touchdown passes. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown are playing out of their minds right now while we're bound to see Chris Godwin explode any week now, noting that he drew a whopping 11 targets against the Dolphins last Sunday. The Eagles haven't been tough against the pass in recent years and that certainly hasn't changed here in 2021, particularly against elite opposing quarterbacks (ugly performances against Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes come to mind). The only difference with the Eagles defense this year is that they're struggling to stop the run as well, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. I like the fact that the Bucs have finally settled on Lenny Fournette in a lead-back role. The Bucs aren't without their issues defensively, largely due to injuries in their secondary. Antoine Winfield Jr. is the latest key cog to go down with an injury. While it's possible he plays, that's no certainty as he deals with a concussion on a short week. With the Eagles low-scoring 21-18 win over the defensive-minded Panthers fresh in everyone's minds, we're able to take advantage of a reasonable total here. Keep in mind, Philadelphia has also been involved in games totaling 62 points against Dallas (we won with the 'over' in that one) and 72 points against Kansas City. Game script has resulted in a few other low-scoring affairs, but in this spot, I fully expect to see the Eagles playing from behind for much of the night - just as they were in those high-scoring affairs against the Cowboys and Chiefs. While I'm not all that high on Jalen Hurts as the long-term solution for the Eagles at quarterback, there's no denying he's a baller, certainly capable of taking advantage of a banged-up, underperforming Bucs defense. Even the punchless Dolphins offense, led by Jacoby Brissett, was able to put up 17 points just past the midway point of the third quarter last week, on the road no less. Miami's offense fizzled from there while the Bucs kept pouring it on, as they're known to do, scoring three unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns. As much as I like playing primetime 'unders', I don't believe this matchup fits the bill. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Baltimore at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Desperately trying to secure their first victory of the season, the Colts have thrown the football 38, 36, 37 and 32 times in their first four games but that pass-heavy approach has proven rather fruitless as they've topped out at just 245 yards through the air. Now that they have a win under their belts, I suspect we'll see them revert to a more ground-oriented approach in a tough road game in Baltimore. Despite their lacking talent, there is reason to believe the Colts can extend some drives and effectively shorten this game noting that only four teams have given up more receiving yards to opposing running backs than the Ravens. With a banged-up offensively line, we can expect Colts head coach Frank Reich to scheme up a run-heavy gameplan on offense that should also include plenty of dinking-and-dunking from QB Carson Wentz. On the flip side, this spot wraps up a soft three-game stretch in the Ravens schedule and they've feasted so far, allowing a grand total of 24 points in wins over the Lions and Broncos. They faced the Colts in a less-friendly environment last season, on the road in a game that featured a closing total of 47.5 points and gave up just 10 points in a two-touchdown victory that easily cruised 'under' the total. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has somewhat surprisingly thrown the football a whopping 68 times in the last two games, completing only 38 of those pass attempts. I expect Jackson to have limited success delivering big plays through the air against the Colts conservative zone defense. Note that the 'under' has gone 65-28 including 25-12 in the last 10 seasons with an elite team (.750 win percentage or better) returning home off an outright underdog road win with a total between 42 and 49.5 points with that situation producing an average total of only 41.7 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout as the Cardinals return home off a huge win over the Rams to host another division foe, the 49ers, on Sunday afternoon in Glendale. This total has actually dropped since opening, a curious move considering the absence of Jimmy G. actually leads me to upgrade the Niners offense with rookie Trey Lance at the helm. Lance has had enough reps with the ones both in the preseason and in limited work during the regular season to leave me confident with him running the offense against a very beatable Cardinals defense on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, only six teams have given up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks than Arizona this season. In general, the Cards haven't been able to stop opposing running games, giving up well north of five yards per rush. Of course, we know that the Cards can sling it with QB Kyler Murray turning in an MVP caliber season so far. There's little reason to expect Arizona to slow down offensively in this one with the 49ers once again proving to be an overrated defensive squad due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 the last 10 times the 49ers have played on the road after getting upset as a home favorite against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 52.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders OVER 45 | 20-9 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Few were paying much attention but we finally saw some signs of life from the Bears offense in last Sunday's much-needed bounce-back win over the Lions. I expect to see further progression from rookie QB Justin Fields and the Chicago offense in this one. While the Raiders pass rush has been terrific, I still have my questions about the secondary and I'm confident that Fields can buy enough time in and out of the pocket to find his targets down field for some big plays through the air in this one. Meanwhile, the Bears pass defense got exposed in its lone previous indoor game on the fast track at So-Fi Stadium back in Week 1, allowing Matt Stafford to go off for 20-of-26 passing for 312 yards. While the Raiders aren't the Rams, I do think we'll see Derek Carr make a concerted effort to push the ball down the field more than we saw in Monday's snoozer against the Chargers. There's little reason for the Raiders to bang their heads against the wall trying to run the football against a stout Bears run defense here and it's worth noting that Las Vegas has aired it out a combined 99 times in its two previous home games, albeit boosted by overtime in both of those games. Take the over (8*). |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This total has dropped considerably from the look-ahead number of 50.5, too much so in my opinion. Yes, Browns QB Baker Mayfield looked very uncomfortable in last week's ugly 14-7 win in Minnesota as he continues to battle through an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. With that being said, Cleveland's offense is generally run-heavy and here they draw a Chargers defense that has allowed north of five yards per rush this season. The Browns are known for their vaunted defense but I expect that unit to get exposed here. Keep in mind, Cleveland's last three games have come against the Texans, Bears and Vikings - all three teams have issues on offense, and struggled to contain the Browns tremendous pass rush. I don't expect the Chargers to have that problem here as they boast a much-improved offensive line that has done an excellent job of keeping QB Justin Herbert clean this season. Herbert and his receiving corps has a considerable advantage against a very beatable Browns pass defense that hasn't been truly tested since getting owned by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs back in Week 1 (remember, even the Texans with Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills padded their offensive stats against this defense in Week 2). Given the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results last week and the Chargers have actually yet to record an 'over' this season, I believe we're dealing with a total that's lower than it should be in this AFC showdown. Take the over (7*). |
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10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | 25-22 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Packers double-digit yawner of a win over the Steelers last Sunday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Green Bay heads to Cincinnati to face the upstart Bengals. Green Bay essentially could have named its score against Pittsburgh last week but elected to call off the dogs on offense in the second half after building a big lead and realizing Pittsburgh's utter inability to mount an offensive attack. I fully expect the Packers offense to get rolling again in this matchup, even against a better-than-expected Cincinnati defense. The Bengals defense has certainly benefited from the slate of quarterbacks it has faced - a list that includes Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton/Justin Fields, Ben Roethlisberger and still-struggling first overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence. This will clearly be the Bengals toughest test to date against Aaron Rodgers and the red hot Packers offense. On the flip side, we've seen Cincinnati begin to open up the passing playbook a little more for sophomore starter Joe Burrow as he's more than proven that he's healthy after last season's devastating injury. Burrow catches a break here with the Packers missing arguably their top defender, CB Jaire Alexander. With RB Joe Mixon dealing with a nagging ankle injury, Burrow will likely be asked to shoulder more of the load in this one and I'm confident he can find some success going over the top with his excellent receiving corps. Take the over (9*). |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I get it. Both of these teams scored 30+ points last week and now clash in a division game on Monday Night Football, leading many to back the 'under' as the so-called 'sharp' play. I believe this one is being totaled as a potential shootout for good reason, however, and will stick with what's been working and play the 'over' on MNF. The Raiders are playing with house money at this point. Most expected they would be 1-2 or possibly 2-1 at best entering Week 4 but here they are sitting atop the AFC West with a flawless 3-0 record. I don't expect them to suddenly get tentative here. While their defense has held up better than most anticipated, I'm not all that high on that unit. Their offense on the other hand has impressed me and I believe they can find continued success, even in this tough road matchup on Monday. Note that opponents have gashed the Chargers defense in two particular areas this season, running the football and on tight end targets. Los Angeles checks in allowing well north of five yards per rush and I believe that sets up the Raiders underrated ground attack well in this one. It's been a bit of a 'plug-and-play' situation in the backfield for Las Vegas this season, with Peyton Barber being the most recent 'next man up'. Regardless who gets the lion's share of the carries on Monday night, I think the Raiders can gash the Chargers run defense. Meanwhile, Las Vegas obviously has one of the best in the business at tight end in Darren Waller. He's keeping opposing defensive coordinators up at night trying to come up with schemes to defend him. I mentioned I'm not all that high on the Raiders defense. I believe this is a spot where they could very well get flamed by an ascending Chargers offense. Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert is absolutely locked in right now, showing incredible chemistry with WR Mike Williams. Only six other teams have given up more catches to wide receivers than the Raiders and I expect to see the Chargers wideouts make the most of their opportunities in this one. Of course, the Las Vegas run defense hasn't been all that imposing in the early going, opening the door for a big night from Chargers do-it-all RB Austin Ekeler as well. It's a pick-your-poison type of matchup for the Raiders defense that appeared to wear down over the course of the game against an otherwise punchless Dolphins offense last Sunday. This game represents a big step up in class for the Raiders 'D' after going against Pittsburgh and Miami in consecutive weeks. A Monday night 'under' result is certainly coming but I don't think this is the spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers UNDER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Sure, I'd like to (and expected to) be working with a higher posted total in this one, but I still believe there's considerable value in backing the 'under' with the Packers coming off consecutive 'over' results. The Steelers offense is arguably the most predictable in the entire league right now and there's really nowhere for them to turn for answers at this point. Big Ben's time as a useful starting quarterback in the NFL is over, and I don't believe that's a knee-jerk reaction at all. Injuries and general wear-and-tear have taken their toll over the years and his decision-making has certainly left a lot to be desired in recent years. Here, with WR Chase Claypool ruled out and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dealing with nagging injuries, we can expect RB Najee Harris to be the focal point of the offense as the Steelers try to effectively shorten this contest and play keep-away from Aaron Rodgers and the explosive Packers offense. On a positive note for Pittsburgh, it is expected to have T.J. Watt back from injury. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in consecutive wins over the Lions and 49ers. As good as the Packers offense is, an extended run of 30+ point performances certainly isn't sustainable. Note that the 'under' is 28-12 with the Steelers playing on the road off a home loss with those games totaling an average of 38.8 points. Better still, the 'under' is 21-8 when Pittsburgh plays on the road off an outright loss as a home favorite with that spot producing an average of 38.4 total points. Also note that the Steelers have given up just 15.4 points per game the last 23 times they've come off a double-digit loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation resulting in an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 101 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I fully expected this total to rise over the course of the week but that hasn't been the case. In fact, we've seen the opposite play out. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that both teams are coming off low-scoring results in Week 2. Regardless the reason, we'll take advantage and back the 'over' on Monday night. This is a 'revenge game' of sorts for Eagles dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts. He led Philadelphia on touchdowns on each of the first two drives in his lone start against Dallas last December, and continued to march the offense up and down the field for the remainder of the game but ultimately couldn't find the end zone again in an eventual 37-17 loss. Hurts threw for 342 yards in that game and also led the team in rushing but fumbled twice and tossed an interception that proved to be the team's downfall. That loss dashed the Eagles slim playoff hopes and you can be sure Hurts hasn't forgot about it. I do like the fact that he's catching the Cowboys early in the season here (Eagles head coach at the time Doug Pederson noted that Hurts was banged-up heading into that late-December meeting with the Cowboys), not to mention he'll be facing a depleted Dallas defense that is missing three of its top four edge rushers - a critical defensive position given Hurts mobility. Dallas isn't just dealing with defensive injuries, it has also taken a hit at the wide receiver position with Michael Gallup sidelined and Amari Cooper dealing with cracked ribs. All indications are that Cooper will play and I'm willing to bet on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's ability to come up with a gameplan to take advantage of an Eagles defense that has been vulnerable against the pass in recent years and will also be missing key cogs both up front and at the back-end (notably DE Brandon Graham and S Rodney McLeod) in this one. The emergence of RB Tony Pollard adds another wrinkle to an already dynamic Cowboys offense that might even have a little more juice than usual with QB Dak Prescott returning to the field where he suffered a devastating season-ending injury in Week 5 last year. Note that the 'over' has gone 10-2 with the Cowboys playing at home against NFC opponents over the last three seasons with those games averaging a total of 60.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-21 | Bears v. Browns UNDER 45 | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I expect to see some old-school football as the Bears and Browns do battle in the Dawg Pound on Sunday afternoon. The Bears will be starting rookie Justin Fields at quarterback and while most see him as a major upgrade over veteran Andy Dalton, I'm not so sure it plays out that way on the scoreboard. Fields is still learning the Bears offense, which isn't all that dynamic to begin with. While I am confident in his ability to march the football up and down the field, I'm not convinced he can finish a lot of drives with 7's rather than 3's against a tough Browns defense on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Browns offense was already run-first before losing WR Jarvis Landry to injury. Odell Beckham Jr. is expected to return to the field on Sunday but I'm convinced he'll be little more than a decoy. Look for the Browns to go run-heavy, even against a Bears front that has been stout against the run through two games. Cleveland has posted a 2-0 o/u record so far this season but I don't expect that 'over' run to reach three in a row on Sunday. Take the under (9*). |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-43 | Win | 100 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that this game has the highest shootout potential of any of the Bills first three games this season (they previously faced two plodding offenses in the Steelers and Dolphins) this is the lowest total we've seen. I believe it will prove too low on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park. The Washington Football Team entered the season with plenty of optimism and dare I say hype, largely due to their potentially fierce defense. Well, that defense has been anything but fierce through two weeks, carved up to the tune of 53 pass completions for well over 550 yards. Now they head to Buffalo to take on a Josh Allen-led Bills offense that has yet to play its best game of the season but will continue to employ an aggressive attack under mastermind coodinator Brian Daboll. Interestingly, Buffalo's ground attack has been just fine, gaining 260 yards on 55 rush attempts. Once the passing attack gets back up to speed, look out. I'm willing to bet on that happening in this matchup. On the flip side, while Buffalo's defensive numbers through two games are solid, it's had everything to do with the opposition it has faced, Pittsburgh with an aging and noodle-armed QB in Ben Roethlisberger and Miami which was forced to turn to journeyman backup QB Jacoby Brissett after Tua Tagovailoa exited early with an injury. Washington QB Taylor Heinicke has already proven to have a gunslinger mentality and enters this game having thrown for 901 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions while also running for 91 yards and a score in four previous appearances since the start of last season. Likely playing in comeback mode for most of the afternoon on Sunday, I expect Heinicke to once again pad his stats and further build on his connection with standout WR Terry McLaurin. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 43 | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Something has to give in this one as the Panthers enter this game sporting an 0-2 o/u mark while the Texans have seen each of their first two contests go 'over' the total. I think a lot of bettors are quick to back the 'under' in this spot, simply due to the fact that the first six primetime games this season have all gone 'over' the total. That's akin to betting on 'black' because 'red' came up six straight times in roulette. I simply feel this total will prove too low. The Panthers defense has feasted through two games this season. Keep in mind, it has benefited from two very favorable matchups - both at home - first going up against an absolutely dreadful Jets offensive line and then facing a Saints team that was in a prime letdown spot off a 'smoke and mirrors' blowout win over the Packers. On paper, this looks like another favorable matchup with the Texans starting rookie third-round draft pick Davis Mills at quarterback. To be honest, I'm not sure he represents all that big of a drop-off from journeyman Tyrod Taylor. An accurate although sometimes overly optimistic passer in college (he's been turnover-prone), Mills was able to get his feet wet in arguably a tougher situation on the road in the second half against the Browns last Sunday, and managed to lead the Texans on one touchdown drive before nearly adding another in the closing minutes. All the Texans have done this season is exceed expectations, putting up 58 points through two games after many (myself included) had them billed as one of the weakest teams we've seen in years. It seems like the entire offense is playing with a chip on its shoulder, with a number of veteran players with a lot to prove including David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Brandin Cooks. Here, they're back home, catching the Panthers off an outright underdog home win - not exactly a favorable spot for visiting NFL teams if history tells us anything. With that being said, I do expect Carolina's offense to absolutely go off in this matchup. Sam Darnold has come out hot this season and with a wealth of burners at the wide receiver position, should be able to roast Houston's secondary. The Texans defense was already lacking talent, but now has to deal with a number of key injuries as well. Kamu Grugier-Hill, who led the team in tackles last week, is listed as questionable due to a knee injury and probably closer to doubtful with this being a short week. Meanwhile, Houston has one of the league's worst secondaries and will have to go without CB Terrance Mitchell and potentially safety Justin Reid as well due to injuries. While the Texans have wisely been playing deep in coverage in an effort to contain big plays through the air, they'll likely have to bump up in this one as they have to respect the ability of Panthers all-world RB Christian McCaffrey. It's a 'pick your poison' type of situation, especially given Houston's inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, and I don't expect it to hold up well. What this play really comes down to is whether or not we believe that the Texans can keep the pressure on the favored Panthers for four quarters and I believe they can. We saw them orchestrate a fourth quarter touchdown drive while falling just short of another last week when they could have easily folded the tent trailing by double-digits against the Browns. While they're playing on a short week with a rookie quarterback there's really no reason to hold anything back given this will be their only primetime appearance this season. I've said it before and I'll say it again here, it takes a lot to cash an NFL 'under' these days. We'll ride the wave of 'over' results once again on Thursday night, noting that the Panthers have played to an average total of 52.1 points when playing on the road off an 'under' result over the last three seasons while the Texans have posted a 6-0 o/u mark in their last six September games, good for an average total of 52.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Packers return home in a smash spot off last week's dismantling at the hands of the Saints. Green Bay's performance last week was as bad as it gets, particularly on the offensive side of the football. This is the perfect bounce back spot, however, as the Packers play their home-opener in primetime against a Lions defense that has the potential to be very bad this year. Detroit got throttled 41-33 by the 49ers in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated last Sunday (we got back-doored with the Niners in that game). What did we learn from that game? The Lions defense is by no means ready for primetime and now has to make do without arguably its best player in CB Jeff Okudah. Question his motivation and general interest in football at this point all you want, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should absolutely roast the Lions defense on Monday night. All of Green Bay's key skill position players on offense are poised for monster performances off last week's complete no-show. As WR DaVante Adams put it, last week's result was easy to toss in the trash. Forget it and move on. The real question is whether the Lions can do enough offensively to lift the final score 'over' the total. I believe they can. I think there's a false narrative out there that the Lions are going to be a 'ground and pound' offense with Dan Campbell at the helm. We saw in last week's game that Campbell won't hesitate to abandon the run should things go sideways and perhaps in watching Jared Goff carve up a capable 49ers defense in the fourth quarter he learned something about his offense. While the Lions have two capable running backs in DeAndre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams, I don't think they'll bang their heads against the wall running the football all night on Monday. Detroit knows it doesn't have the defense to turn this game into a slugfest. Instead, I look for the Lions to once again open things up on offense, leaning heavily on the likes of Swift (in the passing game) and TE T.J. Hockenson, who proved very useful against the Packers in two meetings last year, catching 10 passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Last season we saw totals of 77. 63, 50, 66, 55 and 51 points when the Packers faced NFC North opponents. Also note that Green Bay averages over 35 points per game when coming off a game in which it allowed 30+ points over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 55.3 points. Off a loss of any kind of the last three seasons, the Packers next game has averaged a total of 52.4 points scored. It takes a lot for an NFL game to stay 'under' the total these days - in fact, we've yet to see a primetime game go 'under' this season ('over' is a perfect 5-0). While an 'under' result is certainly coming, I don't think it happens here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -103 | 31 h 40 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Washington at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This is a very low total by today's NFL standards but I'm not sure it's been set low enough given the state of both of these offenses, not to mention the familiarity between the two teams and the fact they'll be playing on a short week. We saw three extremely high-scoring primetime games in Week 1 but that was to be expected given the matchups. Here, we should see a much different brand of football on display to kick off Week 2. The Giants offense is just a week into the season and it already looks downright scary - not in a good way. There was nothing creative or explosive about the G-Men offense against Denver and while that was to be expected given the strength of the Broncos lies on the defensive side of the football, this isn't much easier of a matchup for New York, if at all. With major o-line issues there's simply very little time for plays to develop before QB Daniel Jones' pocket collapses, leading to lots of short dump-off passes. RB Saquon Barkley clearly isn't all the way back from last year's devastating injury, although I do expect him to play a larger role in this week's offensive gameplan after getting only 11 touches in last Sunday's loss. Given Washington's vaunted pass rush, we can expect G-Men offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to develop a fairly conservative gameplan for Jones and the offense here, simply looking to take care of the football and sustain some drives to effectively shorten the game. Washington's offensive prospects don't look a whole lot better than New York's with QB Taylor Heinicke taking over for an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke won't take nearly as many chances as Fitz and this is a sneaky-tough matchup against a quality Giants secondary anyway. Washington RB Antonio Gibson is one of its biggest home run threats, along with WR Terry McLaurin, but there's still questions as to whether Gibson can take care of the football after he coughed up a pair of fumbles last week. Regardless, the Football Team should focus on churning out long, ground-oriented, clock-eating drives when on offense in this one as the Giants biggest vulnerability lies in its run defense. Take the under (10*). |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Las Vegas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The first Monday nighter of the 2021 season matches up two teams that will feel some urgency to get off to a positive start after watching their division mates turn in (mostly) impressive performances on Sunday. For the Ravens, they're in a loaded AFC North that saw both the Steelers and Bengals prevail yesterday while the Browns hung tough but ultimately fell by the narrowest of margins on the road against the two-time defending AFC champion Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Raiders will have to contend with an improved AFC West this year - all three of their divisional counterparts secured victories on the first Sunday of the season. With all of that being said, I don't expect to see either of these teams ease their way into proceedings on Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have been ravaged by key injuries heading into the season, particularly at the running back position. I do feel this is very much a 'plug-and-play' offense, however, that obviously revolves round the play of dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. We can expect RB Ty'son Williams to step in and fill the void left by J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. With the starting job his for the taking, expect him to make a splash against a very manageable opponent on Monday. Of course, Jackson is the real key here and I expect him to have a field day against a Raiders defense that is weak at the linebacker position and also depth-shy in the secondary. With all of the changes Las Vegas made leading up to and during training camp at the linebacker and cornerback positions it's obvious that the organization has reasons for concern at those spots. Ravens TE Mark Andrew figures to be in for a big night matched up against a linebacking corps that should struggle in coverage. Las Vegas did upgrade its defensive line with the addition of Yannick Ngakoue from the Ravens in free agency. However, he's on his fourth team since 2019 and I think there's a reason for that. The Ravens weren't willing to pay up to re-sign him after he was relatively ineffective for them last season. The Raiders offense was actually pretty fun to watch last season, noting that they scored 30+ points on seven different occasions. Known for his lack of aggressiveness throwing the ball down field, we saw QB Derek Carr show some improvement in that regard last season. The Raiders used a first round pick to draft speedster Henry Ruggs in 2020, determined to stretch the field more to keep up with the likes of the high-octane Chiefs offense, and that they did, even picking up a 40-32 win at Arrowhead Stadium last October. TE Darren Waller is the real focal point of the offense, however, and I would certainly anticipate a strong performance from him in a likely high-volume spot here in the opener. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Raiders listed as a 3.5-9-point underdog over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 64.7 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-2 in the Raiders last 11 games played on turf with those contests averaging 57.6 total points. John Harbaugh's Ravens teams have had plenty of success lighting up the Raiders defense over the years, noting that in four meetings between 2015 and 2018, Baltimore put up 33, 27, 30 and 34 points. Expect more of the same on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans OVER 53.5 | 38-13 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it. I'm actually not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough for a game that has 'defense optional' written all over it. The Cardinals offense figures to improve in QB Kyler Murray's sophomore season with an improved offensive line and a more dynamic receiving corps with the underrated addition of rookie Rondale Moore to take over the role of slot receiver. The Titans are bereft of talent in the secondary making this a nightmarish opening week matchup as the defense works its way back into game shape. It's not as if Tennessee has a fierce pass rush to lean on either. Murray should be afforded plenty of time to march the Cardinals up and down the field provided he can take care of the football. On the flip side, the Titans are favored for a reason. While their defense is certainly a weakness, their offense could turn out to be among the best in the entire NFL again this season. The addition of future Hall-of-Famer Julio Jones only adds to an already loaded group that can beat you in so many different ways. Believe it or not, QB Ryan Tannehill is still underrated in most circles in my opinion. He's not a 'flash in the pan' at this point and should be in 'attack mode' for much of the afternoon on Sunday, noting that like the Titans, the Cardinals secondary ranks among the worst in the league from a talent perspective. The Cards do have a capable pass rush but won't be able to pin back their ears against a well-balanced Tennessee offense on Sunday. Take the over (8*). |
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09-12-21 | Jets v. Panthers OVER 44.5 | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one has the potential to be one of the more sneaky-entertaining, high-scoring games of the week as the Jets travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers. Carolina's offense was woeful last season, largely due to an early-season injury to do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey but also as a result of game manager Teddy Bridgewater playing quarterback. While Sam Darnold comes to Carolina with little reason for optimism based on his performance as a New York Jet, I believe Darnold could actually thrive in this Panthers offense. Unlike in New York, Darnold now has a wealth of talent to work with, starting with McCaffrey in the backfield, but also former Jet WR Robby Anderson, big play threat D.J. Moore and promising rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. The Jets secondary should be no match at all for the Panthers receiving corps. Meanwhile, the New York pass rush took a massive hit with the likes of Carl Lawson, Vinny Curry and Jarrad Davis all sidelined due to injuries. The real question here is whether first round pick QB Zach Wilson can do enough in the Jets offense to help this one 'over' the total. I believe he can. While some will chalk up his preseason success to playing against second and third-string defenders, I think we'll see some carry-over effect. Wilson has built up a strong enough rapport with his receivers, most notably former Titan Corey Davis, and should be able to take advantage of a Panthers secondary that should prove to be its defensive weakness, particularly in the early stages of the season. I wouldn't count on the Jets banging their heads against the wall trying to run the football in this one. If anything, look for some designed runs from Wilson as he provides the offensive spark the Jets have so desperately needed for so many years. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51.5 | 29-31 | Win | 102 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While the Bucs continue to be bet up, the total has held fairly steady, even being bet down at some books. I fully expect Tampa Bay to find plenty of offensive success going up against a down-trodden Cowboys defense that might be a little stronger up front with the addition of first round draft pick Micah Parsons, but still looks vulnerable at the back-end. Dallas brings in former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn to run the defense - a curious move considering just how bad Quinn's defenses were during his time in Atlanta. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should be salivating at the thought of going up against Dallas' overmatched secondary, especially with QB Tom Brady back healthy after playing through an MCL tear in the postseason. On the flip side of the equation, I'm willing to bet on the Cowboys talent on offense, and also the play-calling of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who is in his third season at the helm. Dallas isn't likely to enjoy much success running the football against the Bucs space-eating defensive front but I don't think Moore will bang his head against the wall long trying to force-feed Ezekiel Elliott. There should be opportunities for Cowboys RB Tony Pollard to perhaps get involved in the short passing game in this one against a Tampa Bay defense that was more than willing to give up passes to running backs last season. I also believe that WRs Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are 'bet-on talents' against a capable Bucs secondary. While QB Dak Prescott will be seeing his first game action since Week 5 of last season (he sat out the entire preseason) all indications are that he was 'all systems go' in the latter stages of camp, with no signs of any loss of velocity after dealing with a shoulder/lat injury earlier in the summer. Missing Zack Martin on the offensive line hurts but Dak's mobility helps. What better way to get back to football than with plenty of offensive fireworks on Thursday night? Take the over (8*). |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs OVER 57 | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. While last night's anticipated shootout in Buffalo fizzled, I don't expect this game to suffer the same fate on Sunday afternoon. The Browns offense has shown the ability to hit big plays and score points in bunches, clearly evolving over the course of the season and absolutely playing their best football entering this game. I don't expect Baker Mayfield and company to back down from a shootout here. The matchup actually sets up well with Cleveland's strength running the football and Kansas City struggling to contain opposing running backs all season, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense has mismatches all over the field with WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce in line for monster afternoons on Sunday. Cleveland's secondary has been ravaged by Covid protocols in recent weeks but should be back to virtually full strength here. I just question whether they snap back into action and contain two of the league's best playmakers in Hill and Kelce. QB Pat Mahomes will undoubtedly get his against a beatable Browns front. This total is sky high for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 50 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -102 | 55 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Buffalo at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. I believe this has the potential to be the most entertaining - and highest-scoring - game of the Divisional Round. Baltimore got 'over the hump' so to speak with a come-from-behind win in Tennessee last Sunday. This Ravens offense has seemingly been getting better with each passing week - no longer the run-first (and run-only) offense that we saw a year ago. QB Lamar Jackson did it with his arm and his legs in last week's contest and should pick up right where he left off against what I consider to be an overrated Bills defense. Buffalo didn't get after Colts statue-esque QB Philip Rivers last Saturday and will be hard-pressed to do so against Jackson here. Of course, the Bills offense can score with the best of them and while this is a tough matchup against a stout Ravens defense, I believe QB Josh Allen and his terrific receiving corps will be up to the challenge. Last week it was the Stefon Diggs show but here against the Ravens I look for John Brown and Cole Beasley to step up as well. I don't expect to see Buffalo do too much running in this game, which certainly works in our favor, lending itself to shorter, but still productive, drives. I don't expect either side to back down in what I project as a back-and-forth shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 9-21 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. While the Saints defense should certainly be respected here, I believe the potential is there for a shootout at the Superdome on Sunday afternoon. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky certainly exceeded expectations once he reclaimed the starting QB job in Chicago, albeit against a relatively easy schedule down the stretch. Here, Trubisky will likely be leading the Bears offense in catch-up mode for much of the day and he has just enough weapons to inflict some damage against the Saints stout defense. New Orleans has the potential to go off with RB Alvin Kamara back on the field against an overrated and undermanned Bears defense. While QB Drew Brees has been relegated to more of a 'game manager' role on many occasions at this stage of his career, I expect him to have a big day on Sunday afternoon. The Chicago defense is very beatable and Brees is likely to have WR Michael Thomas back on the field for this one. Take the over (10*). |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Washington Football Team hasn't posted an 'over' result since its Thanksgiving Day game against the Cowboys and I don't see that streak ending, even against the high-scoring Bucs on Saturday night. Washington can certainly use the 'no one believes in us' mantra as a near-double-digit underdog entering this contest. There's reason for it to be somewhat confident as it boasts a fierce defensive front that should put Bucs legendary QB Tom Brady under duress all night long - or at least that's the hope. Brady's struggles when under pressure have been well-documented, particularly in recent years. Of course it generally takes two teams to topple a total and in this particular matchup, Washington is relatively hamstrung on offense. QB Alex Smith is dealing with a calf strain and while he's likely to start, it remains to be seen whether he can finish this game. Standout RB Antonio Gibson has been dealing with a turf toe injury while WR Terry McLaurin had to shake off a high ankle sprain to suit up last week. Despite playing the 'under' in this game, we actually want the Washington offense to find some success moving the football and eating some clock in this game, and I'm confident they can do that against a Bucs defense that will yields plenty of completions in the short passing game - an area of strength for this WFT offense. Having scored 23 points or less in 12 of 16 games this season, there's little reason to anticipate a sudden breakout on the scoreboard from Washington here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 42.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with this same play the last time these two teams met in Week 16 - a game that totaled just 29 points. While I'm not going to count on another sub-30-point result here, I do expect this third meeting of the season to say 'under' the low posted total. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson threw just one touchdown compared to two interceptions in two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals. There's little reason to expect a sudden breakout here, with Wilson being asked to do far less down the stretch during the regular season, as the Seahawks defense rose to prominence. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has a big question mark under center - will it be Wolford or Goff under center? Regardless which quarterback gets the start, they're likely to struggle against a Seattle defense that absolutely rounded into form at the most critical point of the season. I do believe Los Angeles can have some success moving the football and orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in this game (the return of left tackle Andrew Whitworth is key) but I'm not confident in its ability to end many of those drives with 7's on the board. Much like the Rams, the Seahawks defense has the ability to take away big plays downfield, and the presence of Wolford (or Goff for that matter) also keeps a cap on that big-play potential. These two teams know each other inside and out and their recent matchups have been un-exciting for those that love wild, high-scoring shootouts. Expect another hard-fought, low-scoring affair on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills OVER 51 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Bills host a playoff game for the first time since 1996 on Saturday afternoon against the Colts. Indianapolis boasted an elite defense during the early stages of the season but the wheels came off a little bit down the stretch and now it draws a nightmarish playoff-opening matchup in Buffalo. The Bills got some good news on Thursday with underrated WR Cole Beasley returning to practice and superstar WR Stefon Diggs indicating that he's good to go for Sunday's game despite a nagging oblique injury. I fully expect Bills QB Josh Allen to let it fly against a Colts defense that has had a penchant for giving up big plays through the air. The question is whether the Colts can do enough on offense to help this one up and over the relatively high total. I believe the answer is yes. Indy RB Jonathan Taylor was positively dominant down the stretch, albeit benefiting from some positive game scripts. You can run on the Bills and I'm confident that Taylor can do enough to open things up for veteran QB Philip Rivers. Big plays will be tough to come by against this Bills secondary, but look for the Colts to grind out enough Taylor-fueled touchdown drives to help this one along. Take the over (10*). |
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01-03-21 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 54 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game sets up as a shootout between the NFC North division rival Vikings and Lions in friendly conditions at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins won't have RB Dalvin Cook in the backfield to relieve the pressure on Sunday afternoon but he should find plenty of success nonetheless with the Lions having no semblance of a stout defense whatsoever. Detroit doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks, doesn't subdue ground attacks and certainly does not contain opposing wide receivers. While Cook's absence isn't ideal, the Vikes still have a terrific stable of running backs to lean on. Meanwhile, Cousins should absolutely feast on a deplorable Lions secondary with both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson in line for big days. Detroit may actually get QB Matt Stafford back on the field on Sunday afternoon and regardless of all the injuries he's dealing with, I still expect him to go all out against a very beatable Vikings defense. Detroit's offense was a complete no-show last Saturday against Tampa Bay as it was completely thrown out of rhythm by Stafford's early exit. Here, I do expect to see Detroit find the end zone on multiple occasions and aim to end another disappointing campaign on a relative high note. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | 38-9 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Bills rout of the Broncos last Saturday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as they head to New England to face the rival Patriots on Monday night. Buffalo's defense has stiffened up considerably down the stretch and should have little trouble containing a Pats offense that has struggled all season, but particularly of late. The Bills don't give up many big plays downfield and actually check in as a top-10 run defense over their last three contests which should severely limit New England's ability to move the football into scoring range. On paper, the Bills should have their way with the Pats defense but New England remains a well-coached, prideful football team and I can't see it simply rolling over in this late season division game, especially after dropping a tough 24-21 decision in Buffalo earlier this season. I certainly expect the Pats to do a better job containing the Bills offense than Denver did last week, or San Francisco did the last time Buffalo appeared on Monday Night Football three weeks ago. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers OVER 54 | Top | 14-40 | Push | 0 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. We've seen this total drop and that likely has something to do with the forecast calling for possible snow and cold conditions at Lambeau Field on Sunday night. We're not likely going to see the type of weather that has a real impact on scoring, however, and I certainly feel that this game has shootout potential in the second-last Sunday Nighter of the regular season. We rode the Titans offense to victory in last week's blowout win over the Lions but the matchup is obviously much tougher here as they travel to face the Packers. With that being said, I like Tennessee's chances of finding continued offensive success with QB Ryan Tannehill having settled into a groove with standout WR duo A.J. Brown and Corey Davis and RB Derrick Henry absolutely running wild down the stretch. Henry draws a favorable matchup here against a Packers defense that can't stop the run. On the flip side, the Packers offense is relatively healthy and figures to feast on a bottom of the barrel Titans defense that has only avoided embarrassment thanks to facing the lowly Jaguars and Lions over the last two weeks. Tennessee doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks at all, which spells likely doom against MVP front-runner Aaron Rodgers. Note that only three teams have allowed more yardage to wide receivers than the Titans this season, setting this up as a monster spot for WR Davante Adams and company. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 50 | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I really liked the way the 'over' set up in the Eagles narrow loss to the Cardinals week but didn't end up playing it due to the inconsistent nature of the two offenses. It was obviously the wrong decision but that high-scoring outcome does seem to be leading plenty of bettors to the window to play the 'over' in this one. Most are very high on Eagles rookie QB Jalen Hurts' after he ran wild against the Saints and then threw for 300+ yards against the Cardinals last week. I'm not convinced we're going to see another big performance from Hurts in the boxscore on Sunday, however - even if this is a mouth-watering matchup against the lowly Cowboys. Keep in mind, while Hurts did throw for 338 yards and three touchdowns in Arizona, he also took six sacks, fumbled the ball three times and completed just 24-of-44 passes. In other words, Hurts is no sure thing to explode against an admittedly beatable Cowboys defense on Sunday. With each passing week opponents have a little more tape on Hurts and it's not as if he has an elite supporting cast. Dallas' offense remains in shambles, although you wouldn't know it by last week's wild 41-33 win over the 49ers. That high-scoring result serves us well here as it keeps this total higher than it probably should be noting these two teams combined for 32 points the last time they faced each other. While the Eagles are dealing with a cluster of injuries in their secondary, I'm not sure that QB Andy Dalton and the Dallas offense is capable of taking advantage. Philadelphia still has a vaunted pass rush, ranking second in the NFL in sack percentage this season. The Cowboys offense ranks 23rd in sacks allowed per game. Take the under (10*). |
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12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 54 | Top | 47-7 | Push | 0 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
NFL Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Saturday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Bucs offense coming off an encouraging come-from-behind win in Atlanta last Sunday. Detroit is a mess defensively with a number of key cogs missing, including their top two cornerbacks. The Bucs should be able to take their pick here as to whether they want to throw all over the Lions beatable pass defense or run wild against their non-existent run defense. While I've been high on the Bucs defense for much of the season, I do think Detroit can do some damage in this game with enough skill position players performing well (most notably WR Marvin Jones, TE T.J. Hockenson and RB D'Andre Swift) to instill confidence in this possible letdown game for Tampa Bay. QB Matt Stafford is still banged-up nursing multiple injuries but there's little reason to expect him to do anything but bomb away in this 'nothing to lose' matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 51.5 | 33-52 | Loss | -118 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 4:30 pm et on Friday. This game may project as a shootout on paper as both the Vikings and Saints are known for their prolific offenses, however, I'm expecting it to play out lower-scoring than most expect. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings last game, a wild home loss to the Bears last Sunday. Of course, we were dealing with a total in the mid-40's in that game, and it actually set up more favorably for the Vikings offense. Here, Minnesota's run-first mentality may actually plague it with RB Dalvin Cook dealing with numerous injuries and playing on a short week. Meanwhile, QB Kirk Cousins has been a true 'Jekyll-and-Hyde' and figures to struggle against the Saints vaunted pass rush. New Orleans struggled to get to Chiefs mobile QB Pat Mahomes last Sunday but should tee off on a statue-esque Cousins here. While the Vikings have struggled defensively for the most part this season, we have seen signs of life from them against the pass in recent weeks. The Saints are in a bit of a state of flux right now with Drew Brees back under center and dealing with the absence of WR Michael Thomas. RB Alvin Kamara will get his, but that may only lead to long, clock-churning offensive drives rather than consistent 7's on the board. Take the under (10*). |
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12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. I can understand the relatively low posted total here as we saw just 32 points scored the last time these two teams met back on November 16th in Chicago. However, the domed environment in Minnesota along with the steady improvement of the Bears offense with Mitchell Trubisky under center (I can't believe I'm saying that) should lead to a much higher-scoring affair here. Only four teams have allowed more touchdown passes than the Vikings this season and that's had a lot to do with the fact that they've had virtually no success getting after opposing quarterbacks. Trubisky and WR Allen Robinson in particular should have a field day on Sunday afternoon. Interestingly enough, a key to this play could be the ability of the Bears defense to minimize Vikings RB Dalvin Cook's effectiveness. That should force QB Kirk Cousins to take to the air more often than usual, which would be a good thing for us with an 'over' ticket in hand as the Bears are vulnerable against the pass and Cousins has a true dynamic duo at WR in Adam Thielen and standout rookie Justin Jefferson. This has the potential to turn into a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos OVER 49 | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Denver at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting a relatively high-scoring affair as the Bills head to Denver to face the Broncos on Saturday. The Buffalo offense is certainly catching the Denver defense as the right time with the Broncos missing numerous key cogs on that side of the football. Vic Fangio is a terrific defensive coach but he can only do so much with the limited personnel he has on hand. Missing the majority of its starting secondary, the Broncos are likely to get lit up by a red hot Josh Allen. Note that no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks than the Broncos this season and we know Allen can be just as much of a threat with his legs as he is with his arm. Denver showed plenty of life offensively in last week's road win over the Panthers - scoring 32 points in the process. With the Broncos offensive line getting back to full strength, QB Drew Lock could be in for another solid day statistically on Saturday. Lock has obviously become accustomed to playing from behind, which is likely to be the case again here. Look for the Broncos to do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-13-20 | Cowboys v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure where the points will come from in this bottom of the barrel matchup between the Cowboys and Bengals. Dallas' offense is obviously a shell of its former self. While it does draw a favorable matchup against a very beatable Bengals defense here, I'm not convinced that QB Andy Dalton is capable of taking advantage with an injury-ravaged offensive line trying to keep him clean. It is worth noting that while the Bengals defense has struggled as a whole, that unit has actually held its own against opposing wide receivers - obviously a strength of the Cowboys offense. Cincinnati has gotten absolutely nothing done since Brandon Allen took over the starting quarterback job. Regardless who is under center for this game, I don't expect a breakout performance. The Bengals will be without a key cog on the offensive line in this one in LT Jonah Williams, opening the door for a solid performance from the Cowboys defense. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-20 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 47 | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This total has settled considerably higher than I expected given the state of both teams. We won with the Giants and the 'under' in their upset win in Seattle last week. While there's a chance we see a big letdown here and their defense struggles, I believe we're looking at a large enough sample size now where their 'D' has excelled. Keep in mind, the Arizona offense has been struggling and this doesn't look like an ideal turnaround spot traveling across the country for an early start game in New Jersey. I do think the Cards can have some success in their short passing game, but that should only serve to create some long, clock-churning drives that may or may not end with 7's on the board. The Giants know who they are at this point. A run-first offense that relies on controlling the football and allowing its defense to take care of most of the heavy lifting. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-20 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 52 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has real shootout potential with the Titans looking to bounce back against what most believe is a tanking Jags squad. There's little reason to expect anything other than an onslaught from the Titans offense here coming off an uncharacteristic mistake-prone performance against a good Browns defense last Sunday. We did see the Tennessee offense come to life in the second half of that contest (once it was completely out of hand). I do think we'll see some carry-over here, with RB Derrick Henry likely to run wild and WR A.J. Brown in line for a massive bounce-back against a hapless Jags secondary. Offensively, Jacksonville has somewhat shockingly held its own since journeyman QB Mike Glennon took over under center. Few pass defenses have been as bad as the Titans' in recent weeks and Glennon is poised to take advantage with a relatively healthy receiving corps. Add in dynamic RB James Robinson and I expect the Jags to put up some points in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I look for both of these offenses to slow-play this game from start to finish. When the Patriots have been at their best this season, we've seen their offense churn out long, clock-eating drives with QB Cam Newton enjoying plenty of success on the ground. I'm just not convinced they can finish many drives with 7's on the board against an elite Rams defense. Meanwhile, there's little reason to have much faith in Rams QB Jared Goff right now, even off a much-needed victory in Arizona last week. Goff was terrific in that game, throwing for 351 yards but he needed 47 pass attempts to get there. I don't expect to see him come close to approaching that number on Thursday. Los Angeles will respect New England's defense and employ a ball and clock control offense here - at least that's my expectation. Look for this total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens UNDER 45.5 | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Baltimore at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's becoming less and less difficult to play NFL 'unders' as this unique Covid-tinged 2020 season goes on. Here, I'll go 'under' the total as the injury-riddled Cowboys - shells of their former selves - travel to Baltimore to face a disjointed Ravens squad due to injuries and otherwise. Dallas has very little going for it right now. Its offensive line is missing a number of key cogs and unlikely to do a good job of protecting veteran QB Andy Dalton or opening up holes for struggling RB Ezekiel Elliott on Tuesday night. On the flip side, the Ravens offense just hasn't worked with any consistency this year - a far cry from the unit that terrorized the league with a unique run-first attack last season. QB Lamar Jackson is expected to be back under center but he'll be operating with a less than healthy supporting cast. The tight end is generally a focal point in the Ravens passing game but their down to ineffective third-string journeyman Luke Willson now. The good news is, Baltimore is expected to have its full compliment of running backs on the field. Expect a concentration on moving the football by land as they eat clock and ultimately shorten this 'win and move on' type of affair. Take the under (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 50.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -109 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
SNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Chiefs should ultimately have their way with the weary, injury-plagued Broncos on Sunday night - just as they did in their earlier matchup this season. Denver limps into this contest off a beatdown at the hands of the Saints last Sunday. Of course, the Broncos didn't have a hope of competing in that game with little-used wide receiver Kendall Hinton starting at quarterback. Here, they'll get QB Drew Lock back on the field and while he will likely struggle to take care of the football against an aggressive Chiefs defense, I do have some faith in him to orchestrate some scoring drives once this contest gets out of hand. It's not as if Kansas City possesses a shut down defensive unit - they're been vulnerable against the pass this season, struggling in particular against the tight end position and Denver has a sneaky-good one in Noah Fant. Likewise, Kansas City has had a tough time defending the run, allowing just north of 4.5 yards per rush. I don't need to say a lot about the Chiefs explosive offense. What you see is what you get as QB Patrick Mahomes is playing some of the best football of his career. The Chiefs should have little trouble exposing an injury-ravaged Broncos defense that gives up over 4.8 yards per rush and has been tagged for four touchdowns to WR Tyreek Hill alone over the last three matchups between these AFC West foes. As an added bonus, we can likely anticipate some short fields for the Chiefs offense thanks to their opportunistic defense taking advantage of a mistake-prone Drew Lock. Take the over (10*). |
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12-06-20 | Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It's not easy betting NFL 'unders' these days but we won with the 'under' in the Seahawks most recent game - Monday's 23-17 win in Philadelphia and Seattle has actually seen its last three games stay 'under' the total. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair as the Seahawks host the Giants. New York will be without QB Daniel Jones in this game, which means we should see an increased focus on running the football and churning out long drives in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field (and protect mistake-prone veteran QB Colt McCoy). I'm high on the Giants defense and believe they're capable of rising to the occasion again here, especially given Seattle's recent shift to a more conservative gameplan after Russell Wilson's early November struggles. The Seahawks have been doing just enough on offense to win games in recent weeks, and letting their defense take care of the rest - a defense that has certainly been playing some of its best football of the season. Take the under (10*). |
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12-02-20 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Pittsburgh at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. This is obviously one of the more unique scheduling situations we've seen in NFL history and I'm anticipating a bit of a disjointed affair from both sides. The Ravens are obviously decimated with injuries and Covid-related absences. Robert Griffin III will get the start at quarterback and I expect him to serve as little more than a game manager in this one. With the Steelers struggling to slow down opposing ground games in recent weeks, I do believe Baltimore can have some success running the football, but that might only lead to long, clock-churning drives rather than 7's on the board. On the flip side, the Steelers always seem to have a tendency to play down to the level of their opposition and this is a division rivalry game after all. I'm not convinced we'll see the Pittsburgh offense operating at peak efficiency. Even with RB James Conner sidelined, I think we'll see the Steelers make a concerted effort to pound the football and ultimately shorten this game. It really is a 'win and move on' type of situation for Mike Tomlin's squad as far as I'm concerned. Take the under (10*). |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 49 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While I'm not expecting a defensive slugfest in this game (those type of affairs are virtually non-existent in today's NFL) I do believe the total will prove to be too high. Seattle's offense has taken a step back in the last couple of games and while this does look like a favorable matchup at first glance, a deeper looks shows the Eagles have proven capable of limiting the big play potential of opposing wide receivers while also playing tough run defense, giving up just 3.4 yards per rush. I believe we'll see Seahawks QB Russell Wilson orchestrate plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this game. Note that Seattle was the best 'over' bet in the league earlier in the season but has now seen its last two games stay 'under' the total. Philadelphia's offense continues to be hampered by injuries on the offensive line and a largely ineffective QB in Carson Wentz. The Eagles will trot out their eighth different offensive line combination in 11 games on Monday night. Head coach Doug Pederson has also alluded to the fact that rookie backup QB Jalen Hurts could see more playing time and I'm not sure that's a positive for an offense that is trying to find some continuity. Note that the Seahawks pass rush has stepped up in recent weeks, recording 16 sacks in their last four games. Wentz has certainly been prone to drive-stalling plays (no quarterback has taken more sacks this season) and I believe we could see more of that tonight, with Philadelphia moving the football but not finishing drives with 7's on the board. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-20 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Rams last game - a 27-24 win over Tampa Bay on Monday night. That was somewhat of an uncharacteristic breakout performance from the Los Angeles offense, but with the Bucs defense suddenly slumping, perhaps it shouldn't have come as a surprise. Here, the Rams go up against a familiar divisional foe in the 49ers and while San Francisco continues to play without a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, that unit has still managed to hold its own, allowing just over 3.5 yards per rush and limiting the big play potential of opposing offenses. Meanwhile, the Niners offense is a shell of its former self with a number of key players sidelined due to Covid or otherwise. We may see the Niners make some headway on the ground in this one but that actually plays into our favor as we could see them grind out some clock-churning drives, but perhaps not be able to finish many of those drives with 7's on the board. You'd be hard-pressed to find a defense that minimizes the impact of opposing wide receivers more than the Rams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-20 | Cardinals v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. I think we're dealing with a reasonable total here only due to the Patriots inability to push last week's game in Houston 'over' the total - a game where we lost a big play on the 'over'. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as many of the same ideas apply. The Patriots have done nothing to slow opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks, with virtually no pass rush and growing holes in their secondary. That should open the door for Cards dual-threat QB Kyler Murray who is coming off a much needed bye week to heal up his injured shoulder. The Pats went a little too conservative in last week's eventual loss to the Texans but I believe we'll see them open things up a little more back at home against the Cards. Arizona is dealing with a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football, most notably missing former Pats standout DL Chandler Jones. Even if the Pats elect to lean on their ground attack, they should have little trouble dicing up a Cards defense that got torched on the ground by the Seahawks the last time we saw them in action. We don't need a true shootout to cash this ticket but we might just get one anyway. Take the over (10*). |
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11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals OVER 44 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
NFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the Giants offense (now that's something we don't say very often) as they return from their bye week to face a Bengals defense that has been blown up time and time again this season. Only three teams have recorded fewer sacks and five fewer quarterback hits than Cincinnati this season which should really open things up for promising but mistake-prone Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. While the G-Men by no means boast an elite ground attack they should have little trouble running wild against a Bengals defense that allows well over five yards per rush this season. Of course, few are expecting much from the Cincinnati offense now that super rookie Joe Burrow is sidelined for the year. With that being said, I believe the Bengals have a bit of upside here as they catch New York in a possible letdown or even lookahead spot now that Burrow is out. Word is that Brandon Allen will get the call-up from the practice squad to start this game. I prefer Allen over backup Ryan Finley, noting that Allen did see some game action with the Broncos last year and has some history with Bengals head coach Zac Taylor from their days together with the Rams. It's not as if Allen is devoid of any weapons as WR Tyler Boyd remains a home run threat at any given time. One thing I don't think we'll see is Cincinnati go on long, clock-churning drives in this game, which plays into our hands with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Turkey Day Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. We frustratingly missed the mark with the 'over' in the Texans most recent game - a narrow victory over the Patriots last Sunday that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well as Houston draws an even more favorable matchup on the road against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. We noted in our analysis last week that Texans QB DeShaun Watson would likely benefit from facing little pressure against the Pats and the same holds true here as Detroit ranks last in the NFL in quarterback hit rate. Watson has certainly looked a lot more comfortable in the Texans offense since head coach Bill O'Brien was sent packing and he should enjoy another big day statistically on Thursday. Likewise, the Texans mediocre running game should flourish against a Lions defense that gives up 4.7 yards per rush. On the flip side, the Detroit offense continues to deal with key injuries, most notably to WR Kenny Golladay - the focal point of its offense. With that being said, QB Matt Stafford has seen it all and draws a favorable matchup against a weak Texans defense that is certainly worse than it showed against an inefficient Patriots offense last Sunday. Like Detroit, Houston doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks which should be music to the ears of Stafford, who is used to taking a beating in the Lions pocket. Meanwhile, the Lions ground attack sets up very well against a Texans run defense that has been virtually non-existent, allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per rush on the season. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between two NFC squads that believe they're Super Bowl contenders in the Rams and Bucs. Los Angeles has regained its defensive swagger here in 2020. No team has allowed fewer yards per pass attempt and the Rams have also been tough on opposing ground attacks, giving up just a shade over four yards per rush. While the Bucs exploded offensively last week (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), that was against a below average Panthers defense. Here, Tom Brady's number one job will be taking care of the football and keeping the Bucs offense on schedule with long, methodical drives down the field. On the flip side, the Rams offense draws a tough matchup against a Bucs defense that is still among the league's best, even after that poor showing in front of a national audience against the Saints two weeks ago. Rams QB Jared Goff hasn't fared well when under pressure throughout his career, and he should be under duress for much of this contest with Tampa Bay entering the week second in the NFL in sacks. I mentioned the Rams run defense earlier - the Bucs have been even better in that regard, giving up a measly three yards per rush. I just don't believe anything will come easy for these two offenses on Monday night and we're working with a reasonably high total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts UNDER 51.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Indianapolis at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll continue to look for spots to play Colts 'unders' and this looks like another favorable situation on Sunday afternoon against the Packers. Green Bay faces an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the second-fewest touchdown passes in the league this season. While QB Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed a career year by many accounts, this is undoubtedly a difficult matchup and I look for Green Bay to lean heavily on its ground attack against a Colts defense that gives up over 4.3 yards per rush. On the flip side, I'm not all that high on the Colts offense, even with QB Philip Rivers enjoying a renaissance of sorts in Indianapolis. The Packers have a very opportunistic secondary led by Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, perhaps forcing Rivers into more of a game manager role in this one. You can certainly run on the Packers defense, but we've only seen the Colts ground attack truly shine in fits and starts this season with rookie Jonathan Taylor somewhat of a disappointment. This is an intriguing non-conference showdown but don't count on an offensive showcase. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars OVER 46 | 27-3 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has the potential to get 'over' the total regardless the way it plays out on the field. The Steelers draw an extremely favorable matchup, particularly on the offensive side of the football where Ben Roethlisberger should feast against a Jags defense that simply doesn't generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. While the Pittsburgh ground game has been average at best this season it draws a Jags defense that lacks the ability to consistently slow opposing running backs. Look for a big game from RB James Conner and co., especially once the Steelers are able to build an inevitable lead in this contest. As good as the Steelers have been on defense this season, there are some soft spots for the Jags to take advantage of. Most notably, they've allowed north of 5.2 yards per rush over the last three weeks, which opens the door for Jags RB James Robinson who has enjoyed a breakout season. We've seen Jags rookie QB Jake Luton 'go for it' on a number of big play attempts over the last two weeks, building a solid rapport with WR D.J. Chark. I'm confident we see the Jags do just enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total (by today's standards). Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as a shootout in Houston as the suddenly rejuvenated Patriots challenge the Texans. Houston's defense has been virtually non-existent this season, against both the pass and the run. The Texans aren't generating any semblance of a pass rush and that spells trouble as Pats dual-threat QB Cam Newton looks healthy again and seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Incredibly, Houston is allowing north of 5.5 yards per rush which should really open things up for New England offense, which is admittedly a little undermanned. Meanwhile, the Houston offense has looked like a different unit since moving on from head coach Bill O'Brien. And speaking of defenses that don't get after opposing quarterbacks, the Patriots fall into that category as well. Even statuesque QB Joe Flacco was able to absolutely torch the Pats two weeks ago. There's little reason to expect anything different here. Also like the Texans, the Pats have struggled to contain opposing ground attacks, giving up 4.6 yards per rush on the season. All in all, both offenses are set up well inside ideal conditions at NRG Stadium and I'm fully expecting offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 56.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This one is being pegged as a shootout and I expect precisely that type of contest to unfold as the Cardinals and Seahawks renew acquaintances on Thursday night. Arizona is of course coming off a thrilling last-second come-from-behind, hail mary-fueled win over the Bills last Sunday. There's little reason to expect any sort of slowdown from the Cardinals offense against an undermanned, struggling Seahawks defense that simply hasn't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all this season. With that being said, we can also expect a big, bounce-back performance from the Seahawks offense as they once again match up well against a beaten up Cards defense on Thursday. Arizona is missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, particularly up front. QB Russell Wilson has been under heavy duress for much of the last two games but gets a terrific 'get-right' matchup here. It sounds like Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett will be good to go despite nursing an injury on a short week, obviously helping Wilson's cause against a Cards defense that has yet to prove it can cover the slot. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these AFC West rivals in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in the Broncos loss in Atlanta last Sunday and there's little reason to go any other way this week as they take on the surging Raiders. Broncos QB Drew Lock didn't exactly flourish in last week's favorable matchup with the Falcons but he did eventually get the offensive moving and put points on the board and I look for him to build off of that performance here. The Raiders aren't applying any pressure on opposing quarterbacks - a contrast to the pressure Lock has been under in recent weeks. Given a clean pocket I'm confident Lock can continue to build on his solid rapport with his young receiving corps, most notable Jerry Jeudy, who is looking like a star in the making. Also note that Las Vegas has been terrible against the run, allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per rush which should open things up even more for this Denver offense. I have no concerns at all about the Raiders offense thriving against the Broncos injury-plagued defense. Denver hasn't been particularly tough against the run or the pass and the Raiders are quietly ascending to elite-level status on offense. Look for TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs in particular to feast in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. As I noted in my analysis of Thursday night's losing play on the Colts-Titans 'under', it's not easy playing an NFL 'under' these days. With that being said, we'll go back to the well here as the Eagles and Giants set up as a low-scoring NFC East affair. I'm much higher on the Giants defense than most. They catch a fairly reasonable matchup here, even with the Eagles getting healthier off their bye week, welcoming back a number of key cogs on the offensive line. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense is set up exceptionally well to cause plenty of headaches for Giants QB Daniel Jones. Both defenses has been stout against the run but I don't believe that will prevent either offensive coordinator from drawing up plenty of run plays, ultimately banging their heads against the wall in that regard. That should lead to plenty of clock-churning drives, supporting our play on the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 48.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It has become very difficult to play the 'under' in today's NFL with scoring up across the league and the majority of games finding their way 'over' the total. With that being said, we won with the 'under' in the Colts most recent game - last Sunday's loss to the Ravens, and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Thursday night in Tennessee. The Colts may have come up short against Baltimore, but they once again performed well defensively, keeping elite playmaker Lamar Jackson at bay for much of that contest. Their zone defense has done a tremendous job of limiting big plays from opposing offenses, and I expect that to be the case again here. Keep in mind, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has cooled following a red hot start to the season, topping out at two touchdown passes in three straight games. While Tennessee does boast arguably the league's best running back in Derrick Henry, he'll be going up against an elite Colts run defense that gives up just north of three yards per rush this season. On the flip side, the Indianapolis offense is average at best, with QB Philip Rivers more of a game manager than a gunslinger at this stage of his career, even though he has fit the latter bill more often than not in recent weeks. Here in a tough divisional road game, I'm not anticipating Rivers slinging the football all over the field. Look for the Colts to instead elect to run the football early and often against a Titans defense that hasn't proven it can slow opposing ground attacks. Look for plenty of long, clock churning drives in this one, helping keep the final score 'under' the relatively high posted total. Take the under (10*). |
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