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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-16 | Panthers v. Raiders UNDER 50 | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'under' in the Panthers win over the Saints last week while missing with the 'under' in the Raiders victory over the Texans on Monday Night Football. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Yes, the Panthers will be without their best defensive player in Luke Kuechly, but I look for the rest of this unit to pick up the slack in his absence. Note that the Panthers have essentially turned in just two poor defensive performances this season, those coming against familiar opponents in the Falcons and Saints on the road. The Raiders offense is explosive, there's no question about that. However, this isn't an unstoppable offense. I don't believe the Raiders defense gets enough credit, noting that they have allowed 20 points or less in three of their last four games. The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 in the Raiders last four contests, but that streak will be seriously tested here with a high number. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-16 | Cardinals v. Falcons -4 | Top | 19-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Arizona at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Falcons on Sunday. We actually cashed a ticket fading Atlanta in its most recent game - a nine-point road loss against the Eagles two weeks ago. The bye week should have served the Falcons well as they return home to host a reeling Cardinals squad. Arizona has been one of the league's biggest disappointments so far this season. The Cards are coming off another loss last week in Minnesota and will be hard-pressed to bounce back here. While I do like Cards RB David Johnson, he simply isn't capable of shouldering the entire load on offense. Carson Palmer's best days certainly seem to be behind him and his receiving corps has let him down as well (with the exception of the ageless Larry Fitzgerald). Arizona remains banged up on defense and will face an explosive Falcons offense that will welcome back RB Tevin Coleman. I'll lay the reasonable number here. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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11-24-16 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 59 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘over’ in Dallas on Thursday. This one sets up nicely after the Cowboys delivered a relatively low-scoring win over the Ravens last Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Redskins exploded for 42 points in a win over the reeling Packers on Sunday night. I expect to see a strong performance from both offenses in Big D on Thursday. With QB Kirk Cousins once again rounding into form, WR DeSean Jackson back healthy, and some semblance of a running game making an appearance, the Redskins are evolving into one of the more explosive offenses in football. I see this as a manageable matchup against a Cowboys defense that has performed better than advertised at times, but has also proven vulnerable without a number of key cogs. Of course, the Dallas offense has been the talk of the league with rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott going off on a weekly basis. There’s little reason to expect any sort of slowdown from that duo on Thursday. Add in a healthy Dez Bryant and this is an awfully tough offense to slow down, let alone stop these days. We’re dealing with a high total in this one, higher than the number these two teams reached in their first meeting this season. It’s warranted though, as far as I’m concerned. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 43 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Minnesota and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Detroit on Thursday afternoon. The first meeting between these two teams was a low-scoring affair, totaling just 32 points in regulation time back on November 6th. I’m not anticipating a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Detroit on Thursday. Yes, the Vikings are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Cardinals on Sunday. However, it’s worth noting that Vikes QB Sam Bradford threw for only 169 yards on 20 completions in that game, while their leading rusher was Jerick McKinnon with just 44 yards on 16 carries. This is by no means an explosive offense right now, and runs into an underrated Lions defense on Thursday. Detroit is coming off a rather pedestrian 26-19 win over the Jaguars. In past years, the Lions have been known for their offense. Even when the team has been bad, the offense has generally remained strong. This year, we’ve seen the Lions defense take a big step forward though, and I’m confident that defense will hold up well again on Thursday. We’ve certainly seen plenty of high-scoring affairs on Thanksgiving Day at Ford Field over the years but this time around, I believe the total will prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions -2.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 40 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Minnesota at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. For years, the Lions were NFC doormats and regularly dropped their Thanksgiving Day game, usually by wide margins. However, that’s changed in recent years and I like the way this year’s matchup sets up for Detroit as well. The Vikings got off to a hot start this season before going ice cold during a four-game losing streak. That skid included a stunning 22-16 home loss to the Lions. We did see the Vikes bounce back with a 30-24 win over what has turned out to be an overrated Cardinals squad on Sunday, but I believe it will be in tough hitting the road here. Despite putting up 30 points against Arizona, the Vikings offense struggled for the most part, with Sam Bradford throwing for only 169 yards and Jerick McKinnon leading the team with only 44 rushing yards. A lot is asked of the Vikes defense on a weekly basis, and I believe that catches up to them again in this spot. The Lions continue to fly beneath the radar despite reeling off four wins in their last five games. They’ve been getting it done with defense lately, allowing just 53 points over their last three contests combined. I’m confident we’ll see that defense come up big again in this matchup. Minnesota swept the season series between these two NFC North rivals last year after the Lions took both matchups in 2014. I’ll stick with the pattern and back the Lions here. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders UNDER 45 | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Oakland at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in Mexico City on Monday night. We won with the 'over' in Houston's most recent game - a 24-21 win in Jacksonville last Sunday. We were fortunate to cash that ticket, however, as the scoring slowed considerably following an exciting first quarter. I'm certainly not all that high on the Texans. They were in a favorable spot to put some points on the board last week against the lowly Jaguars, but it will be a different story against the red hot Raiders on Monday. While Oakland is known for its offense, we've seen the Raiders defense step to the forefront when it's mattered most as well. Last time out they limited an improving Broncos defense to just 20 points in a double-digit victory. They draw a manageable matchup against a rather one-dimensional Texans offense on Monday. The playing conditions could be difficult on Monday night in Mexico, not only due to the altitude but also the poor air quality. These Monday night games haven't exactly been barn burners this season, and I'm anticipating a similarly slow-paced affair on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders -5.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland minus the points over Houston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Raiders on Monday night. Despite some terrible showings in primetime, the Texans check into Monday's game sporting a 6-3 record. I don't believe they're as good as their record indicates. The Houston offense remains stuck in the mud with QB Brock Osweiler. Case in point, the fact that WR DeAndre Hopkins has been held to 56 yards receiving or less in six of the last seven games. Oakland's offense has been explosive to say the least, and while it will face a tough challenge in a better than expected Texans defense without J.J. Watt, I believe we'll see the Raiders make enough clutch plays to ultimately put this game away. Defensively, I believe we'll see the Raiders shine in this one - just as they did two weeks ago in their lone previous primetime tilt against the Broncos. The Raiders success so far this season is no fluke. This is a complete football team capable of reaching the postseason, and certainly capable of taking care of business against a team the caliber of the Texans. Take Oakland (8*). |
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11-20-16 | Packers v. Redskins -2.5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 16 m | Show | |
Sunday Night ATS Rout. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Green Bay at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The Redskins have quietly enjoyed a lot of success lately, going 5-1-1 over their last seven games. I look for them to keep it rolling against the downtrodden Packers on Sunday night. Green Bay has lost three in a row and four of its last five overall. The Packers defense just can't stop anyone right now, and even a healthy Clay Matthews isn't likely to make much of a difference here. Note that the Redskins have put up at least 26 points in three of their last four games. Kirk Cousins has proven to be one of the best passers in the league this season, with an unheralded supporting cast helping him out. Of course, these two teams met in the playoffs nearly a year ago with the Packers rolling to a convincing road win. That result certainly won't be lost on the Redskins. They're a better team than they were back in January - on both sides of the football. Meanwhile, the Packers have taken a significant step back as far as I'm concerned. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-20-16 | Patriots v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 15 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a shootout at Levi's Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Yes, the Patriots will be without Rob Gronkowski but I don't expect that to hold the offense back. Last Sunday night we saw New England struggle against the Seahawks, but they'll face a more favorable matchup here. The 49ers are by no means what they once were defensively, and I'm confident the Pats will expose their weaknesses. San Francisco saw its four-game 'over' streak grind to a halt against the Cardinals last Sunday. Note that the 49ers have put up 43 points over their last two games. I still believe the Niners can have a strong finish to the campaign offensively with Colin Kaepernick locked in under center and Carlos Hyde back healthy. Who could forget the last meeting between these two teams - a Sunday night showdown in Foxboro back in 2012 - a game the 49ers won by a 41-34 score. While I'm not about to predict a game that gets into the 70's, I do believe this lofty total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-16 | Steelers v. Browns OVER 44.5 | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. The Steelers don't have a defense to speak of. They've gotten repeatedly shredded during their current four-game losing streak. I'm not convinced they turn it around here, certainly not now that arguably their best defensive player, Cam Heyward, has been sidelined. Offensively, Pittsburgh can score with the best of them. We saw that last week as the Steelers went blow for blow with the Dallas Cowboys. I don't expect them to face a great deal of resistance in Cleveland. The Browns offense is better than it has shown, particularly the effort it put forth in last week's ugly loss at Baltimore. I'm a supporter of QB Cody Kessler, and believe he has enough pieces around him to put up points in a matchup such as this. The 'under' has cashed in six of the last seven meetings in this series, but we're looking at a reasonably low total on Sunday afternoon. Note that the last time they met here in Cleveland we saw a closing total of 47.5. Take the over (10*). |
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11-20-16 | Steelers v. Browns +8 | Top | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Browns on Sunday. The Steelers are in disarray right now. They've lost four straight games, culminating with last week's blown opportunity against the Cowboys. I'm not convinced they bounce back here, even if this does appear to be a very winnable matchup. The Browns have yet to win a game this season. But it's coming. At least that's my belief. Cleveland has actually stayed fairly healthy this season but having the youngest roster in the league has held it back. It won't be difficult for the Browns to get up for this divisional matchup, however, and I'm confident we'll see them stay inside the inflated pointspread. The Steelers defense has struggled at the best of times this season. Now they're without Cam Heyward in addition to a number of other key injuries. I'm not sure they can avoid the upset here, let alone cover the number. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Carolina at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Carolina on Thursday night. The Saints are known for their offense and they've certainly performed well on that side of the football in recent weeks, but I'm not convinced they'll enjoy the same success they did in the first meeting between these two teams this season. New Orleans' o-line took a hit with the absence of Terron Armstead last week and he isn't expected to play on Thursday. That's a key injury you won't hear a lot about. Defensively, the Saints turned in one of their better performances of the season last week, even if it was in a losing effort against the Broncos. I look for them to build off of that strong showing here. Of course, the Panthers offense has struggled to regain the form that carried the team all the way to the Super Bowl last February. Cam Newton has been under pressure virtually every snap, and the run game has been non-existent. Meanwhile, the receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. TE Greg Olsen has been one of the few bright spots on offense. The Panthers defense held up well most of the way against the Chiefs last Sunday, but it wasn't enough as they were unable to hold off a fourth quarter comeback. This defense has been playing well, however, allowing 20 points or less in three straight games. If the Panthers are going to turn things around, the defense will need to lead the way. The last two meetings between these two teams resulted in identical 41-38 scores, with each team winning once. However, the most recent meeting here in Carolina resulted in only 49 points in September of last year. Of course, the Saints were without Drew Brees in that one. I'm not sure it makes a difference as far as the total is concerned here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants UNDER 47.5 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' in New Jersey on Monday night. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results in their most recent games. In fact, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in the Bengals last three games. I don't see that streak continuing here, however. The Bengals have topped out at 31 points this season, and that performance came against the lowly Browns. I don't expect to see them approach that number here. The Giants have topped out at 28 points, doing so last week against the Eagles. It's worth noting that the G-Men scored two quick touchdowns in the first six minutes of that game before putting up only 14 points the rest of the way. Both defenses are better than they have shown and both offenses have been inconsistent at best. I'm surprised so many bettors are quick to back the 'over' in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks v. Patriots -7.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Seattle at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Patriots in this Super Bowl rematch from two years ago. The Seahawks cruised to a win over the Bills this past Monday night, but I think that game hid a lot of their flaws. Or should I say that win hid a lot of their flaws. Seattle will welcome Kam Chancellor back on Sunday night, which will provide a boost to the defense, but I'm not sure it will prove to be enough. This is a struggling unit right now and things won't get any easier against a rested Patriots offense. While New England is known for its offense, its defense has more than held its own this season. In fact, it has been dominant for stretches. This group has remained relatively healthy and should feast on a Seahawks offense that really has no semblance of a running game right now. Pete Carroll can talk all he wants about how Russell Wilson is getting back to full strength, but we've yet to see it on the field as he hasn't shown that same scrambling ability in recent weeks. He's getting there, but he's not all the way back as far as I'm concerned. The Seahawks aren't the same imposing force they were when they faced the Pats in the Super Bowl nearly two years ago. I simply believe the Pats will prove to be too much on Sunday night. Take New England (10*). |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -2.5 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the short number with the Steelers against the red hot Cowboys on Sunday. Pittsburgh looked pretty awful in last week's loss to the division rival Ravens. Of course, that came on the road, and it came in Ben Roethlisberger's first game back from injury. It took a while for Big Ben to settle in against Baltimore, but I'm anticipating a much sharper performance here. There will be no shortage of motivation for the Steelers as the Cowboys are the talk of the league, having reeled off seven straight wins since opening the season with a home loss to the Giants. Dallas couldn't have played much better than it did in last week's rout of the Browns in Cleveland. But obviously things get a lot tougher here. Note that if Dallas doesn't lose here, it likely won't be seriously challenged again until facing the Vikings on the road in a Thursday nighter on December 1st. As poorly as Pittsburgh has played over its last few games it still remains in the thick of the hunt for an AFC North division title. With a win here it would pull even with the Ravens atop the division. These two teams haven't met since 2012, but the last two meetings have gone the way of the home side. That's a trend I see continuing here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-13-16 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 42 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon. The last time these two teams met they combined to score just 36 points in a blowout victory in favor of the Texans. However, that came in the final week of the 2015 regular season. I expect a game here more similar to the 31-20 result in October 2015. The Texans are coming off a 20-13 home win over the Lions and enter this one off of their bye week. Remember, just two games back the Texans essentially hit rock bottom - at least on offense - in a 27-9 loss to the Broncos (we won with Denver on that night). I still believe these Texans have plenty of upside on offense and I'm confident they'll enjoy plenty of success against a very beatable Jags defense. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's offense has done nothing of late, but does draw a favorable matchup here. The Texans defense has been undermanned for much of the season with J.J. Watt sidelined and I'm not convinced that unit will bring its 'A' game on Sunday. The 'over' is 3-2 in each of these teams' last five games overall and I'll back that modest trend here on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-13-16 | Falcons v. Eagles +1 | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
Sunday Afternoon ATS Rout. My selection is on Philadelphia over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Eagles at home on Sunday afternoon. We cashed a big ticket with the Falcons last week, as they rolled to a blowout win over the Bucs in Tampa. Things get a little tougher for Atlanta here, as it aims for its third straight victory. Note that the Falcons already vulnerable defense lost CB Desmond Trufant to injury last week and he won't play in this one. That opens the door for Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to take full advantage as far as I'm concerned. Atlanta has thrived on its offense so far this season but how long can it keep it up? The Falcons weren't challenged by a weak Bucs defense last week. Here, they'll run into an Eagles squad that has given up just 23 points in three home games this season. The Eagles are a perfect 3-0 at home this season and know they have to bring their 'A' game in order to put a stop to their two-game skid. In the ultra-competitive NFC East they simply can't afford a long losing streak. I like their chances of bouncing back here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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11-10-16 | Browns v. Ravens UNDER 45 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Baltimore at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Baltimore on Thursday night. The Browns suffered yet another loss - a resounding one - last Sunday against Dallas. Cleveland has now dropped the cash in three consecutive games, allowing more than 30 points on each occasion. Here, Cleveland catches a bit of a break in my opinion. Baltimore is coming off a big home win over the Steelers last week. But prior to that, the Ravens had dropped four games in a row. A quick start last week led them to victory but the fact is, their offense has struggled. Baltimore will undoubtedly look to get its ground game going against the Browns after picking up only 61 rushing yards over the last two games combined. That lends itself to the 'under' as far as I'm concerned. I don't believe the Browns are as bad defensively as they've looked over the last few games. Their offense has struggled to move the football with any consistency, leaving their defense on the field far too long. I look for them to do a better job of managing that on Thursday night. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled 45 points. We're dealing with a higher total than we saw on that day - I believe it will prove to be too high. Take the under (10*). |
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11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks -7 | 25-31 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Buffalo at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Seahawks on Monday night. Here's an interesting angle, similar to the one we used in our favor with the Falcons on Thursday night; the SU winner has gone 23-0-1 ATS in all games involving the Bills going back to the start of last season. I'm confident the Seahawks will be able to get by Buffalo in this spot, and I won't hesitate to lay the points. Buffalo's defense has been virtually non-existent in the last couple of weeks, allowing a whopping 69 points. I'm not sure the Bills have the personnel in place to bounce back in that department this week. The Seahawks have been struggling, particularly on offense, but all indications are that QB Russell Wilson is as healthy as he's been in weeks. Defensively, they're missing a couple of key cogs but I don't believe those absences will cost them against an uneven Bills offense. If Seattle wants to be considered one of the teams to beat in the NFC, and a Super Bowl contender, this is a game it has to have. The Seahawks haven't been a good bet this season, but neither have the Bills for that matter. I'm willing to give the home side the benefit of the doubt in this one. Take Seattle (10*). |
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11-06-16 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My selection is on Denver over Oakland at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Broncos in Oakland on Sunday night. Denver is dealing with a number of key injuries right now and Aqib Talib's absence shouldn't be underestimated. But I do feel the banged up nature of the Broncos defense has been more than factored into this line. This is a big showdown in the AFC West with the two teams coming in with identical 6-2 records. I've been high on the Raiders since the start of the season, but also cashed one of my biggest tickets of the campaign fading them against the Chiefs at home. I simply feel that we'll see the Broncos defense keep the Raiders explosive offense in check. Oakland is coming off back-to-back big performances offensively, but that was against the Jags and Bucs. They'll face a much different animal in this one. On the flip side, the Broncos offense is an underestimated unit right now as far as I'm concerned. Losing RB C.J. Anderson certainly hurt, but rookie QB Trevor Siemian has proven more than capable of carrying the load. Take Denver (10*). |
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11-06-16 | Jets v. Dolphins -4 | 23-27 | Push | 0 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. Many believe that the bye week came at the wrong time for the Dolphins as they came off consecutive wins. However, I have no faith in the Jets coming off back-to-back wins, and believe we'll see the Fins take care of business in this one. The Fins will be home for the fourth consecutive game here, and that shouldn't be discredited. Meanwhile, New York is off a hard-fought win in Cleveland last week - a game that easily could have gone either way. The Jets took both meetings in this series last season and have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. That hasn't been lost on the oddsmakers. Miami has the personnel in place to take advantage of this matchup. Look for the Fins offense to once again break loose in this one. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns OVER 48.5 | 35-10 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in Dallas' win over the Eagles last Sunday night. There's little reason to jump off that train here in this matchup. The Cowboys should have their way with the Browns defense. They'll likely need to keep it up for four quarters however, as I look for the Browns to find some success offensively in this one, and they'll certainly be highly-motivated. Cleveland will welcome QB Cody Kessler back to the fold. They'll also bring back WR Corey Coleman. If nothing else, that should provide an emotional boost. I don't believe the Browns will shy away from a shootout with the Cowboys here. We're dealing with a relatively high total, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +8.5 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Browns plus the points over the Cowboys on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Browns last week at home against the Jets but I won't hesitate to back them again in this matchup. It won't be difficult for Cleveland to get up for this game, that's for sure. I like the fact that the Browns are settled at quarterback with Cody Kessler. I also like the fact that rookie WR Corey Coleman is back in the fold. The Cowboys are coming off a huge divisional win over the Eagles last Sunday night. It's letdown time in this spot. As much as I respect this Dallas squad, I don't believe they should be laying this many points in this spot. Cleveland remains winless on the season but I do believe this is a team that will earn a win this season. This could be the week. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Falcons on Thursday night as they try to make it two wins in a row and avoid a series sweep at the hands of the Bucs this season. It's interesting to note that the SU winner is a perfect 7-0 ATS in all Falcons games this season, and an incredible 22-1 ATS going back to the start of last season. I believe the Falcons are the superior team here, and I'm confident supporting that trend for another week. A lot has changed for these two teams since the Bucs upset the Falcons in Atlanta back in Week 1. It's been an up and down campaign for Tampa Bay but with a win here it would pull itself back to the .500 mark and within one game of Atlanta in the NFC South standings. I'm just not sure the Bucs have the personnel on hand to accomplish that, however. Tampa Bay is down to its fourth-string at running back. Jacquizz Rodgers had done a nice job filling in for Doug Martin and Charles Sims over the last two games, but he won't be able to play on Thursday due to a foot injury. The lack of a consistent ground game will hamper Jameis Winston and the Bucs aerial attack, especially against a strong Falcons pass rush. Atlanta is dealing with its share of injuries as well, also at the RB position where it will be without its touchdown leader Tevin Coleman. In spite of that, I look for the Falcons to move the ball up and down the field, leaning heavily on RB Devonta Freeman and of course WR Julio Jones, who caught just three passes last week. The Falcons have battled on the road this season, going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. I believe they're on the cusp of being an elite team in the NFC and I look for them to take another step in the right direction on Thursday. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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10-31-16 | Vikings -4 v. Bears | 10-20 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Chicago at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with the Vikings on Monday night. Minnesota is coming off a tough 21-10 road loss to the Eagles last week - its first setback of the season. The Vikes gift-wrapped that game for the Eagles with a number of key turnovers. I'm anticipating a much cleaner performance from them on Monday, however. Chicago has lost three straight games, including a 26-10 blowout loss in Green Bay last week. Things obviously won't get any easier here. The Bears defense employed a bend but don't break strategy against the Packers and held up well on the goal line but this is certainly a unit that can be exposed. Most probably don't believe the Vikes are built to put many points on the board in such a setting, but I'm confident they'll do just that in Chicago on Monday. The Vikes went 2-0 SU and ATS in two meetings with the Bears last season, including a 23-20 win here in Chicago. I believe this Minnesota squad is better than last year's edition and I'm confident it can stretch out the margin in this spot. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 40.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in Chicago on Monday. When you think of the Vikings, the first thing that probably comes to mind is defense. And rightfully so. However, I look for the Vikes offense to bust out against the Bears in Chicago on Monday. Minnesota turned in its worst offensive showing of the season by far last week in Philadelphia. Sloppy play ruled that contest but I'm anticipating a much sharper effort from the well-coached Vikes in this division matchup. The Bears will start Jay Cutler on Monday night, and he'll obviously have no shortage of motivation. I do feel that Cutler's presence makes the Bears offense better, even if most of the Chicago faithful believe otherwise. The Vikings defense has been outstanding this season but did show some chinks in its armor last week and is dealing with some key injuries. Keep in mind, the two meetings in this series last year produced 43 and 55 points. The 'under' is still 4-1 in the last five matchups between these two NFC North foes but that's certainly been factored into this number. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys -4.5 | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The road team has owned this series, taking each of the last six meetings. I look for that trend to change on Sunday, however. The Eagles are coming off a big win over the Vikings last Sunday but that game was essentially gift-wrapped for them. Don't count on the Cowboys to be nearly as forgiving on Sunday. Dallas is coming off its bye week and certainly isn't without its share of controversy with QB Tony Romo returning to practice this week. I don't expect Romo's presence at practice to have an adverse effect on rookie Dak Prescott, however. In fact, I believe we'll see Prescott come out focused and eager to retain his starting job. Philadelphia hasn't performed well on the road this season, with its lone victory coming against a weak Bears squad. Eagles QB Carson Wentz has been mired in a bit of a slump lately and they don't have a ground game to speak of. I simply feel we'll see the Cowboys make the big plays down the stretch - on both sides of the football - and ultimately secure a win here. Take Dallas (10*). |
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10-30-16 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Dallas at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Dallas on Sunday night. The Eagles put up 21 points in last week's big win over the Vikings at home, even if it had little to do with the offense. Rookie QB Carson Wentz struggled once again but did just enough to guide his team to victory. I expect a better showing from Wentz here as he'll obviously be up for this matchup with the rival Cowboys - the first time he's faced them in his NFL career. Early in this game at least, I'm confident he'll make some big plays for the Eagles offense. On the flip side, I'm looking for another big performance from the Cowboys offense. Tony Romo returned to practice this week and could be close to returning but that should only fuel the fire of rookie QB Dak Prescott. All indications are that Prescott isn't feeling the pressure of playing in front of a proven QB like Romo. And it doesn't hurt that the Cowboys will likely have WR Dez Bryant back on the field, not to mention arguably the best running back in football right now, rookie Ezekiel Elliott. The 'under' has cashed in the Cowboys last three games but I don't see that trend continuing here. In fact, it works in our favor as it helps to keep this total down, as does the fact that the Eagles are coming off a low-scoring affair against defensive-minded Minnesota. The last time the Eagles and Cowboys hooked up they combined to score 60 points in an overtime affair last November. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-16 | Jets v. Browns +3 | Top | 31-28 | Push | 0 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over New York at 1 pm et Sunday. The Jets are in complete disarray right now. So are the Browns, but at least expectations weren't all that high to begin with. I simply feel that Cleveland is in better position to get going from a standing start than New York is in this matchup. The Browns are 0-7 on the campaign but how many of those seven games could we have possibly expected them to win? I would say one - that being a home game against the Ravens in Week 2. Cleveland actually hung tough in that one, leading the game entering the fourth quarter, but ultimately fell five points short. Cleveland faced a highly-motivated Bengals squad on the road last week and got caught flat-footed, also losing its starting QB. Here, the Browns are expected to get a veteran presence back under center in Josh McCown. It's a start. The Jets are riddled with injuries right now and Ryan Fitzpatrick is set to take over the reins again at quarterback whether head coach Todd Bowles likes it or not. I believe the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 48 | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in the Big Easy on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks are coming off a disappointing 6-6 tie in Arizona last Sunday night, but I look for them to bust out offensively as the scene shifts to the SuperDome in New Orleans on Sunday. Everyone is quick to refer to the Seahawks as a 'struggling' offensive team, even though they had produced at least 26 points in three straight games prior to last week's contest. That's not to mention the fact that most see the Seahawks as an elite defensive squad. But this is a defense that is dealign with some key injuries with Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett sidelined. New Orleans had some big plays, but was ultimately held down by the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday. With that being said, outside of a no-show against the Giants in New York, the Saints offense has been rolling all season. They'll certainly be up for this matchup with perennial NFC contenders the Seahawks. When these two teams last met in the playoffs in 2014 they combined to score just 38 points. We're dealing with a much higher posted total this time around, but it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 101 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Titans on Thursday night. This may not be the most intriguing matchup on paper but the fact is, it's a big one in the AFC South. The Jags are reeling right now. Or at least that's the way it seems if you listen to their fans or the media. The fact is, they had won consecutive games prior to dropping an ugly 33-16 decision at home against the Raiders last Sunday. But those wins weren't pretty. The first came in England against a wildly inconsistent Colts squad and the second came on the road in come-from-behind fashion versus an awful Bears team. The Titans have been an awful bet in recent years, and check into this one on a 1-4 ATS slide. They dropped a tough one at home against the Colts last Sunday but I believe the short week works in their favor here as they quickly look to make amends in another division game. The thing that has encouraged me about the Titans this season is that despite some inconsistency from QB Marcus Mariota, they have been putting points on the board. Note that they've scored at least 26 points in three straight games, seemingly getting better with each passing week after a slow start to the season. The Titans rarely win at home, let alone win by margin. But I believe this line could actually be higher, keeping in mind they'll be playing their third straight contest at home and were favored by 7.5 and 4 points against the Browns and Colts respectively the last two weeks. The Jaguars have a ton of pressure on their shoulders right now even if expectations are generally low in Jacksonville. Both head coach Gus Bradley and QB Blake Bortles are on the hot seat right now and another loss here likely results in some changes. I'm not sure we'll see them respond well to that pressure. At this point I just don't believe in the personnel they have on hand. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series. The Titans only managed to win by three at home against the Jags last year, but that was without any semblance of a ground game and what I believe was a weaker defense than they have now. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos -7.5 | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Houston at 8:30 pm et on on Monday. You would have to go all the way back to Week 17 in 2014 to find the last time the SU winner suffered an ATS loss in a game involving the Texans. So perhaps the question here is whether you believe the Texans can win this game outright, or do the Broncos bounce back from consecutive losses? I believe we'll see the latter. Houston rallied for a big division win at home against the Colts last Sunday - a game that easily could have gotten away from it. So the Texans should be confident entering this matchup but a tough challenge lies ahead to be sure. Keep in mind, the Texans have been terrible in two previous road games this season, getting blown out at New England and Minnesota. The Broncos got caught flat-footed on the road against an underrated Chargers squad last week. It was QB Trevor Siemian's first game back from injury and he looked out of sync with the offense at times. With that said, the Broncos were still in the game right to the final whistle. I expect to see a strong bounce-back performance from the Broncos offense on Monday night. The Texans haven't been the same team defensively since losing J.J. Watt - that shouldn't come as any surprise. To put it simply, they're not stopping anyone right now. I believe the Broncos have a better offense than most give them credit for. Look for that offense to come up with a few timely scores while the defense does its part as usual. Take Denver (10*). |
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10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 6-6 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Seattle at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Cardinals last Monday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them as they host the Seahawks on Sunday night. Arizona got a solid return from QB Carson Palmer last time out, even if he was battling some conditioning issues after missing time due to a concussion. I expect a sharper performance from Palmer here, even against a tough defense in the Seahawks. Seattle was fortunate to keep its winning streak intact last week, pulling out a narrow 26-24 win over the Falcons. Keep in mind, during the Seahawks three-game winning streak, two wins have come against the likes of the 49ers and Jets - two of the league's worst teams. The Seahawks offense has got rolling lately but its largely been a product of the defenses it has faced. Here, it will face a much tougher challenge. The Cardinals got off to a rotten start this season but they've certainly rounded into form lately. On the heels of back-to-back wins they'll be looking to make a statement here. They can ill afford to fall back below the .500 mark at this stage of the season. The road team has won five of the last six meetings in this series and that's certainly been factored into this line. I simply feel that the Cards are well-equipped to handle a banged-up Seahawks team here. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers UNDER 46.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Afternoon Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in San Francisco on Sunday afternoon. The Bucs are coming off their bye week, which came on the heels of a big 17-14 road win over the Panthers on Monday Night Football. Yes, the Panthers were without Cam Newton in that game, but credit the Bucs for allowing just two touchdowns in a tough road matchup. Tampa Bay draws another favorable matchup here as the 49ers continue to struggle. San Francisco will turn to Colin Kaepernick under center once again. He showed plenty of rust in a shaky performance last week in Buffalo but should be sharper against the Bucs. I'm still not sure that equates to a strong offensive showing from the Niners, however. I still don't believe we've seen the Bucs best defense, but they have shown improvement as the season has progressed and the bye week shouldn't hurt their cause. Offensively, Tampa Bay is shorthanded, down its top two running backs on the depth chart and now also without Vincent Jackson. Even though Jackson is no longer the focal point of the offense, he has still served as a security blanket for QB Jameis Winston at times. The 49ers defense has been absolutely ripped by the run this season but after a complete no-show in Buffalo last week, I do look for them to show some pride here. These two teams have met three times since 2010 and all three totals closed at 41. Take the under (10*). |
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10-23-16 | Saints v. Chiefs -5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
NFL Sunday Afternoon ATS Rout. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New Orleans at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Chiefs again this week. We cashed one of our biggest plays of the season to date last week as the Chiefs rolled past the Raiders in Oakland. I look for them to keep rolling as they return home to host the Saints on Sunday. New Orleans is coming off back-to-back high-scoring victories. If the Saints are going to win this season, it's likely going to happen in those wild, high-scoring affairs. Their defense simply isn't good enough to win many slugfests. Here, I'm not sure we're in for one of those slugfests. With that being said, I still believe the Chiefs turn in another strong performance. Much has been made of the success of Andy Reid coached teams following the bye week. We saw that trend hold true last week but also worth noting is that in the last two years, the Chiefs have also delivered blowout victories in the week following that post-bye week success. Arrowhead Stadium is still a tough place for opponents and the road hasn't exactly been kind to the Saints in recent years. New Orleans did pull out a win in its most recent road game in San Diego (and we won with the Saints on that day), but that came in wild comeback fashion in a game the Chargers essentially gave away. The Chiefs have a big opportunity in front of them here, something that might have seem lost two games back when they were crushed by the Steelers in a primetime game in Pittsburgh. The Saints have been fun to watch over the last couple of weeks, but I believe they run into a tough defense here. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 44 | Top | 25-28 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Miami on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs last week. The Bills have seen the 'over' cash in their last two games, scoring 30 and 45 points in wins over the Rams and 49ers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins offense got rolling against the Steelers last week, putting up 30 points. But make no mistake, this is still a plodding Miami offense as far as I'm concerned. RB Jay Ajayi had a breakout performance last week and essentially carried the offense. The Fins are still content to dink and dunk their way down the field with Ryan Tannehill under center. I'm not convinced the Bills are quite as good offensively as they've shown in the last couple of weeks. They'll face a Fins squad that will certainly have its guard up after allowing a whopping 74 points in two meetings - both losses - last year. Buffalo has played three road games this season, and two of those totaled 20 points or less. Note that prior to last season, the 'under' had cashed in five of the previous six meetings in this series. Expect a return to form here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 46 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in Green Bay on Thursday night. We've heard a lot of talk this week about just how good Bears QB Brian Hoyer has been in place of an injured Jay Cutler. Yes, Hoyer has done well to throw for 300+ yards in four consecutive games since taking over but the fact is, Chicago doesn't have many points to show for it, and certainly doesn't have many wins - only one on the campaign so far. Here, most expect Hoyer to light up an undermanned Packers defense that is dealing with a number of key injuries, but I'm not so easily convinced. Green Bay still has an excellent front seven, not to mention a strong tandem of Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at safety. Look for the Packers young fill-in corners to step up in this matchup as well, knowing a victory is of the utmost importance following last week's ugly loss to Dallas. Offensively, something just doesn't seem right with the Packers. Jordy Nelson is back but doesn't look like the same dominant force he was two years ago. Randall Cobb is banged-up and still hasn't regained his 2014 form either. Meanwhile, the backfield has been ravaged by injuries, forcing the Pack to bring in former Chief Knile Davis this week. The 'under' is now 14-6 in the Packers last 20 games overall, including a 3-2 mark so far this season. The Bears have yet to post consecutive 'under' results this season, but off Sunday's low-scoring 17-16 setback at home against the Jaguars, I look for that to happen here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-16 | Jets v. Cardinals -7.5 | 3-28 | Win | 102 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We've kept a close eye on the Cardinals over the last couple of weeks, first losing with them at home against the Rams before backing them again in a blowout victory over the 49ers in San Francisco one week ago Thursday. I believe they're worthy of the lofty pointspread here and I'll back them against the reeling Jets on Monday night. Arizona did a lot of things well in last week's win. One thing it didn't do well, however, was throw the football. Drew Stanton was shaky, ultimately completing only 11-of-28 passes for 124 yards. They'll get a big upgrade at that position on Monday as Carson Palmer returns after suffering a concussion two weeks ago. The Jets are dealing with a number of key injuries right now and as much as I like the team as a whole, not to mention head coach Bowles, I simply can't back them here. Keep in mind, we did win with the Jets back in Week 2 when they turned in their best performance of the season in Buffalo. The Cards were embarrassed by their effort in their most recent home game - a 17-13 loss to the Rams two weeks ago. Look for them to make amends here, as they turn in one of their best performances of the season and roll past the Jets. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
10* NFL Sunday Night Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'over' between Indianapolis and Houston at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We're looking at a high total in this matchup given how inconsistent these two teams have been this season but I'm still willing to play the 'over'. The Colts are coming off a much needed win last week against the Bears and despite how poorly they've played, they're just a game back of the AFC South leading Texans. As much as they would probably prefer not to get involved in another shootout, I'm not sure it's something they can avoid given their personnel at hand. Note that the 'over' has cashed in four of the Colts first five games this season. Houston was a no show last Sunday in Minnesota but should respond favorably in this matchup. Despite scoring just a combined 40 points in their last two games, the 'over' is still 2-0 in the Texans last two contests. I don't expect either offense to face much resistance in this matchup. Last year's two meetings between these two teams were relatively low-scoring but that only helps our cause with a reasonable total here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-16-16 | Falcons v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10* NFC Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Atlanta at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta is off to a somewhat surprising 4-1 start to the season but I believe we'll see it run into a roadblock in this matchup. The Falcons have reeled off four straight wins since opening the season with a tough home loss to the division rival Bucs. Last week they took down the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, on the road no less, but it's going to be tough for them to turn the trick again as they stay on the road to face the Seahawks. Seattle was dominant in back-to-back wins prior to its bye week. I don't think that bye week will send it off course, however. This is a team that was dealing with some nicks and bruises and should be in better shape coming off the bye. We've seen the Falcons play their best football already this season. I'm not sure we've seen Seattle's best, however. The Falcons will certainly draw their full attention this week and I'm confident Seattle will cover the reasonable pointspread thanks to a strong offensive showing. Take Seattle (10*). |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* NFL AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the Chiefs as they head into this critical early season division showdown off of their bye week. I've been high on the Raiders this season and we've kept a close eye on them to be sure, most recently cashing a ticket fading them with the Falcons back in Week 2. I won't hesitate to fade them again on Sunday as they come in off three consecutive wins. The Chiefs were flat out embarrassed in their last game, suffering a blowout loss in primetime against Pittsburgh on the road. Prior to that they had turned in their most complete performance of the young campaign as they rolled to a 24-3 home win over the Jets. Note that Kansas City has taken three straight meetings in this series. The last time Oakland defeated Kansas City it checked in as a 7.5-point home underdog back in 2014. We're not seeing anything comparable to that line here, and rightfully so as the Raiders have closed the gap between these two AFC West rivals. With that being said, the Chiefs are expected to get RB Jamaal Charles back on the field and I believe he gives the offense a much-needed boost. The defense needs no further motivation following that ugly loss in Pittsburgh. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-16-16 | Bengals v. Patriots -7 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
10* NFL Sunday Afternoon ATS Rout. My selection is on New England minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Patriots on Sunday. The Bengals are in free-fall mode right now. The sky isn't exactly falling as they're just a win away from climbing back to the .500 mark, but they were thoroughly dominated in Dallas last Sunday and I certainly don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot on the road against a fired up Patriots squad. New England cruised past Cleveland last week as Tom Brady returned to the field following his suspension. Obviously, the Pats are scary good on offense with the TE duo of Martellus Bennett and Rob Gronkowski essentially uncoverable. Add in breakout WR Chris Hogan and veteran Julian Edelman, not to mention a healthy stable of backs and this is a seriously tough offense to slow down, let alone stop. Defensively, I have faith in the Pats. They didn't turn in their best effort last Sunday against the Browns, but they were good enough to be sure. Bill Bellichick has made a career of taking away opponents' best weapons and that should be the case again this week as New England keys on A.J. Green. This has the makings of one of the week's most entertaining games, but I feel the Patriots will ultimately pull away as the game progresses. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number here. Take New England (10*). |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 45.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
10* NFL Thursday Night Total Dominator. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and San Diego at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a much higher posted total than we saw the last time these two teams met back in Week 17 last season, but it's not warranted in my opinion. The Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season, a game in which they didn't play particularly well defensively, giving up a touchdown on Atlanta's opening drive and never really getting back in the game. Here, I expect to see a positive response against a Chargers squad that has to feel frustrated at this point. San Diego has actually hung in there pretty well despite all of the injuries it has dealt with. The offense has led the way as the Chargers have put 30+ points on the board in three of their last four games. Keep in mind, they haven't exactly faced the best of the best in terms of defenses over that stretch, lining up against the Jags, Colts, Saints and Raiders. I think the Chargers defense deserves a little more respect than it is getting, noting that the unit was buoyed by the presence of highly-touted draft pick Joey Bosa last Sunday. Bosa recorded two sacks in the loss to the Raiders, and the Chargers did hold QB Derek Carr to just 25 completions on 40 pass attempts. They'll face a more run-heavy attack against the Broncos on Thursday night and I believe that serves them well. I don't believe the Broncos are going to be the offensive juggernaut they looked like through the first month of the season. Off back-to-back 'under' results, I'm looking for more of the same on Thursday. Take the under (10*). |
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10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers -5.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
My selection is on Carolina minus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the Panthers minus the points, even without Cam Newton on the field on Monday night. Both of these teams check in with 1-3 overall records but it's the Panthers that are better positioned to bounce back as far as I'm concerned. Derek Anderson will take over under center for an ailing Cam Newton and I'm confident that he can turn in a solid performance against a banged-up Bucs defense. It's not as if the cupboard is bare for the Panthers offensively with Newton on the sidelines. They still have a capable backfield and a loaded WR and TE corps. The Bucs got put in their place by a Broncos squad that perhaps isn't quite as dominant as they had appeared previously last week. Tampa's lone win this season came back in Week 1 when it delivered a near perfect offensive performance on the road against the Falcons. As much as I like the duo of QB Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans, I don't have a lot of faith in the Bucs offense as a whole. Look for the Panthers aggressive defense to clamp down on Monday night. Carolina has run into a really tough schedule in the early going this season but catches a bit of a break here. Note that the Panthers are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS over the last six meetings in this series. Take Carolina (10*). |
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10-09-16 | Bengals v. Cowboys UNDER 45 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Dallas on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'under' in the Bengals most recent game, an easy 22-7 rout of the Dolphins last Thursday night. I don't see any reason not to go right back to the well with the same play here. The Bengals got off to a slow start this season but their defense has never been a big issue. That defense should hold up well against an undermanned Cowboys offense that is relying heavily on a pair of rookies in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has come along way going back over the last couple of seasons. Last week we saw a signature performance from this unit in San Francisco and I'm confident they'll come to play against the Bengals as well. These two teams last met four years ago, when the Cowboys prevailed by a 20-19 score in Cincinnati. The setting changes this time around but I believe we see a similar result from a totals perspective. Take the under (10*). |
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10-09-16 | Texans v. Vikings -6.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Vikings aren't going to run the table this season and most are calling this a big early season showdown against the 3-1 Texans. But I'm not a believer in Houston and I don't expect the Vikings to suffer any sort of letdown here off a convincing Monday night win over the Giants. Houston managed to pull out a 27-20 win over Tennessee at home last Sunday, but that had more to do with Titans miscues than anything else. Remember, just two weeks ago the Texans were routed 27-0 in New England. The Vikings have it all working right now and while they may be undermanned offensively with WR Stefon Diggs not expected to play, this is still a team that can put points on the board on both sides of the football. Minnesota QB Sam Bradford has developed nice chemistry with his underrated receiving corps, not to mention TE Kyle Rudolph. Even with Adrian Peterson out of action, the ground game continues to churn along. I simply feel that one of these teams are for real while the other is a pretender so to speak. The Vikings have taken on a 'next man up' philosophy this season and I'm confident they'll remain undefeated on their home turf on Sunday. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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10-09-16 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 43 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Miami on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark with the Titans last week in Houston as they simply couldn't get enough stops and gave up a big punt return touchdown en route to a seven-point loss. I certainly didn't come away impressed by the Tennessee defense in that game, even if it did manage to limit the Texans offensive unit to only 20 points. Now it goes up against a Miami squad that will likely start slinging the football all over the field with the running game simply not working. The Dolphins should be able to have some success through the air with the trio of Stills, Landry and Parker. Last week they were completely shut down by a quality Bengals defense but an easier test awaits this Sunday. Offensively, I believe the Titans are far better than they have shown so far this season. Marcus Mariota was shaky last week but I'm confident he'll bounce back in this spot. I'm also confident that the Titans ground game can find some running room against an aggressive Dolphins front line. We won with the 'under' in the Fins loss in Cincinnati last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over San Francisco at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. Even without Carson Palmer on the field, I believe the Cardinals will have enough to get past the 49ers on Thursday night. It's not surprising that a lot of bettors are down on the Cards without Palmer. But how much worse can things really get? Some had the Cards pegged a Super Bowl team or at the very least a playoff team this year. Yet, they're off to a miserable 1-3 start - that was with Palmer at the helm. Drew Stanton represents a downgrade at the position but he won't be asked to do too much for the Cards on Thursday night. This one should be all about the Arizona defense, which got punched in the mouth by the Rams last Sunday at home. The Cards took that loss personal and I'm confident they'll respond favorably here. The 49ers played about as well as could be expected but still fell at home against Dallas last week. They haven't looked like the same team since opening the campaign with a 28-0 blindside of Los Angeles. San Francisco hasn't caught any opponent with its guard down since that season-opening blowout win and that won't change here as the Cards will certainly be out to creep back toward the .500 mark. Take Arizona (8*). |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 43 | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday. While I have a lot of respect for both of these defenses - even taking into consideration all of the injuries the Giants are dealing with on that side of the football - I simply believe this total will prove too low on Monday night. The Giants offense hasn't faced this level of challenge on the road in nearly two years. Back in 2014 they traveled to face the Seattle Seahawks and jumped out to an early lead, ultimately scoring 17 points in a 21-point loss. The offense did manage to hold its own on that day, however, and I believe we'll see a similar story unfold in Minnesota on Monday. While the Giants are thin at running back, it's not as if that position has been a focal point of the offense in recent years anyway. Despite what we saw last week, when they struggled to stretch out their lead and ultimately fell to the Redskins at home, the Giants have a terrific three-headed WR monster in OBJ, Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepherd. They will take their shots against this tough Vikings defense. Minnesota has yet to really get rolling offensively, but I see plenty of positives. Sam Bradford is settling into the offense nicely and has already developed chemistry with WR Stefon Diggs. Adrian Peterson may be sidelined, but Jerick McKinnon is no slouch out of the backfield, running for over five yards per carry against a tough Panthers defense last week. Keep an eye on rookie WR Adam Thielen as well, as he has also been a favorite target of Bradford. The potential is always there for points on the board from the Vikings special teams and defense, and while that can't be properly accounted for when handicapping the total, it is worth mentioning. I believe this total belongs in the mid-40 range, and while that wouldn't appear to give us much value to work with here, the combination of hype surrounding the Vikes defense and injuries in both backfields serve to help our cause - keeping this total in check. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Chargers | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over San Diego at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with New Orleans on Monday night as it couldn't get nearly enough stops in an emotional loss against the Falcons. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, as the Saints hit the road to face an injury-riddled Chargers squad. San Diego is coming off a tough loss in Indianapolis last Sunday (we won with the Colts in that game). The Chargers have held their own through three weeks but have only one victory to show for it. This certainly looks like a winnable game on paper as they welcome a winless Saints squad to town, but I don't expect a 'W' to come easy. The Saints are banged up, particularly on the defensive side of the football. But as I mentioned, the Chargers have been ravaged by injuries. They're in even rougher shape as far as I'm concerned. The Saints offense did keep it rolling against the Falcons on Monday, even with WR Willie Snead sidelined. There's a chance he'll be able to return on Sunday, but even if he can't I still like New Orleans' chances of lighting up the scoreboard. I'll back the more desperate team in this one. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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10-02-16 | Saints v. Chargers OVER 53.5 | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and San Diego at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Saints loss to Atlanta on Monday night and I'll make the same play on Sunday as New Orleans heads west to take on the Chargers. Both of these teams have performed exceptionally well offensively this season and I don't see anything changing in this particular matchup. Note that both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries, and most of those lie on the defensive side of the football. The Saints had no answers for the Falcons on Monday night and while they will take a step down in class here, I'm still not sure the Chargers will be the cure for what ails them. San Diego is missing a couple of key pieces on offense in RB Danny Woodhead and WR Keenan Allen. However, the cupboard is by no means bare. The Chargers are led by a gunslinger in QB Philip Rivers and I'm confident we'll see him continue to throw downfield early and often. This is the highest total on the board this week, but it's warranted in my opinion. Look for the losing team to get into the high-20s and that should be all we need to cash our ticket. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-16 | Rams v. Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Cardinals as they aim to rebound following an ugly defeat in Buffalo last Sunday. The Rams are off to a somewhat surprising 2-1 start but I believe they're two-game winning streak ends here as they stay on the road for a second straight week, and travel back across the country following last Sunday's thrilling win in Tampa. L.A. has been getting it done with some smoke and mirrors as far as I'm concerned. QB Case Keenum completed only 14-of-26 passes in last week's 37-point outburst. RB Todd Gurley was held in check for the most part. It was WR Tavon Austin who was the star of that victory but now he's banged up with a shoulder injury. The Cardinals have been a real jekyll-and-hyde team so far this season. However, they did deliver a a 40-7 win over Tampa Bay the last time they played here at home. With this being their first division game of the campaign they'll certainly be eager to get back on track. Carson Palmer simply had an off day for the Cardinals last week. I fully expect to see him bounce back strong, helped by another big effort from RB David Johnson, on Sunday afternoon. The Cards defense will take care of the rest against a Rams offense that isn't nearly as good as it showed last week. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-02-16 | Titans +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Titans on Sunday. Two weeks ago we cashed a big ticket with the Titans as they upset the Lions in Detroit. Last week they were taken down a notch or two in a 17-10 home loss to the Raiders. Things won't get any easier here as they travel to face a Houston squad that will be eager to bounce back following a poor showing in New England last week. I believe the Titans will be up for the challenge. Considering the Texans have taken the last four meetings in this series the Titans will certainly have motivation on their side in this one. To put it simply, I don't like laying points with an unproven quarterback like Brock Osweiler. He got the big pay day in the offseason after proving very little taking over from an injured Peyton Manning for the Broncos last season. Now the Texans are up against it with J.J. Watt sidelined and Lamar Miller looking rather ineffective out of the backfield. I'll give Tennessee an excellent shot at the outright win here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 12 m | Show |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Miami and Cincinnati at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the ‘under’ in Cincinnati on Thursday night. The Dolphins were involved in a wild 30-24 overtime affair against the Browns last week but let’s not get too carried away by that high-scoring result. Scoring 24 points in regulation time against a team the caliber of the Browns is no real accomplishment. This is still very much a ‘dink and dunk’ offense with Ryan Tannehill at the helm as far as I’m concerned. They’ll move the football at times on Thursday night but I’m not convinced they’ll put a lot of ‘7’s on the board. Defensively, the Fins gave up plenty of yardage but when it was all said and done, allowed just one offensive touchdown against the Browns last Sunday. This is still a quality defense, particularly up front, and they’ll need to bring their ‘A’ game to contend with a highly-motivated 1-2 Bengals squad on Thursday night. I don’t like the effort the Bengals have put forth on offense so far this season. It’s pretty much been A.J. Green or bust and while that can work at times, it’s not a feasible long-term strategy. They need to get RB Giovani Bernard in particular more involved, but I’m not sure the Dolphins will give them a great deal of open space on Thursday night. Cincinnati remains a stout defensive squad, even if it has shown some cracks so far this season. It's worth noting the Bengals have faced a tough schedule including matchups with Pittsburgh and Denver. Look for this game to play out just the way the Bengals like it – I’m confident we’ll see enough of a slugfest to keep this one ‘under’ the total on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 53.5 | 45-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and New Orleans at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in the Big Easy on Monday night as two NFC South rivals do battle. To put it simply, I have very little faith in the Falcons defense right now. They've done absolutely nothing to instill any confidence this season, allowing a combined 59 points against the Bucs and Raiders. Things won't get any easier here as they stay on the road to face what will be a desperate Saints squad. New Orleans hung in there in a losing effort against the Giants in New York last Sunday, with its defense putting forth an admirable effort. I don't expect to see a repeat performance against a familiar foe on Monday, however. Offensively, the Saints remain loaded and remember just two weeks ago Drew Brees lit up the Raiders, guiding his team to a 34-point performance. Expect an effort more closely related to that one than the stinker the team put up against the Giants last week. The 'under' is actually 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in this series but that only serves to help our cause playing the 'over' in this particular matchup. I believe both teams are well-suited to get involved in a shootout on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Atlanta at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the short number with the Saints on Monday night as they try to pick up their first victory of the season after back-to-back disappointing losses. I'm not as down on the Saints as some. Keep in mind, we cashed a 10* ticket with the Falcons in an underdog role in Oakland last week. I don't see this as nearly as favorable of a matchup, however. After seemingly scoring at will at home against the Raiders two weeks ago the Saints took a big step back last Sunday, struggling to put points on the board in an ugly loss to the Giants. I fully expect to see Drew Brees get back in rhythm on Monday night and lead his offense to a productive night. The Falcons have plenty of holes on both sides of the football. They do have a lot of upside as well but I'm not sure they have enough to outgun a desperate Saints squad on the road, in primetime no less, on Monday night. Keep in mind, the Saints swept this series a year ago. That included a 10-point victory here at the Superdome. I'm anticipating a similar result on Monday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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09-25-16 | Bears v. Cowboys OVER 43.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Dallas at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Dallas on Sunday night as I believe the Bears offense will take a step forward with Jay Cutler sidelined while the Cowboys got their swagger back in last week's win in Washington. There's no reason to think we see any sort of drop-off in offensive production from the Bears. There's really nowhere to go but up with Brian Hoyer taking over under center. I do feel that the Bears have some good pieces in place on offense. Jeremy Langford is being pushed for his starting job in the backfield while the receiving corps is solid with Alshon Jeffery leading the way (he's expected to play despite a minor injury). Meanwhile, the Cowboys showed a lot of positives in last week's win in Washington with Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant getting on the same page and Ezekiel Elliott showing flashes of brilliance in his second NFL start. We're dealing with a relatively low total here, largely due to the uncertainty surrounding both offenses. I don't believe the low number is warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-16 | Chargers v. Colts -1.5 | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over San Diego at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Simply too many key injuries for the Chargers to overcome in this one. The Colts will be desperate, we know that. Indianapolis is coming off back-to-back losses to open the campaign although let's face it, last week it was up against it facing an elite squad in the Denver Broncos, on the road no less. The Colts got caught flat-footed in their home opener against Detroit but I don't expect that to be the case here. Indy will realize the importance of this contest and I fully expect to see it put forth its absolute best effort. San Diego already lost Keenan Allen for the season and now is forced to go forward without Danny Woodhead as well. I'm just not sure the Chargers defense is good enough to shoulder so much of the load when you consider the offensive will likely be hampered moving forward. The Chargers have taken the last three meetings in this series but these two teams haven't hooked up since 2013. Take Indianapolis (9*). |
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09-25-16 | Steelers v. Eagles +4 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Pittsburgh at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. In a battle of 2-0 teams I'll back the Eagles at home on Sunday afternoon. I know that the Eagles have faced a light schedule so far, going up against the Browns and Bears. However, that victory in Chicago this past Monday was no gimme, noting that the oddsmakers listed the Bears as field goal favorites prior to that one. Here they'll face a tough test against an explosive Steelers offense, and defense that has been steadily improving. But I like the composure that Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz has shown and I'm confident he can do enough to guide his squad to victory in this big matchup. Don't discredit the Eagles defense either. This unit has held its own so far this season and will be amped up for a matchup against the high-octane Steelers who have been getting plenty of hype. I don't believe there's much separating these two teams at all, certainly not enough to warrant the lofty pointspread. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 41.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'over' in Tampa on Sunday afternoon. We missed the mark badly with the 'over' in the Rams most recent game - a big home win over the Seahawks last Sunday. L.A. couldn't get anything going offensively in that game, but it was also up against a premier defensive unit. Different story here on Sunday as the Rams head to Tampa to take on the Bucs. Tampa Bay has been involved in back-to-back relatively high-scoring affairs, however the Bucs did little to help their own cause last week in a 40-7 loss against the Cardinals. I do expect to see the Bucs bounce back offensively here as they return home for the first time this season. Don't be fooled by last week's game against a hungry Cards squad. This Bucs offense has improved with QB Jameis Winston coming into his own in the pro ranks. The Rams are a good defensive team, but not a great one. Remember, in their opener they got ran all over in a 28-0 rout at the hands of the 49ers. They were fired up last week in their first game back in L.A. but here it may be a little tougher to get up for the opposition. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots +1.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Houston at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Patriots as a rare home underdog on Thursday night. No need to get too carried away analyzing this matchup. I have a lot of confidence backing the Patriots as they stay home for a second straight game, and face an opponent that will draw plenty of motivation, especially with the Pats being down to their third-string quarterback. Look for New England to do an excellent job defensively, minimizing the effectiveness of elite WR DeAndre Hopkins. Lamar Miller has been good but not great out of the backfield in his first year with the Texans. Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler should struggle at times in his first road start of the season. Jacoby Brissett will start for the Pats under center and while that's a downgrade at the position to be sure, the Pats still have plenty of solid pieces around him, even if Gronk can't suit up. In what could be a grinder, I'll put my money on the Pats. Take New England (10*). |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots UNDER 41 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New England at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll play the 'under' in Foxborough on Thursday night. The Texans defense has held up well through two games - of course, those two games have come at home against two weak offensive squads in the Bears and Chiefs. Those performances should serve to give them a nice confidence boost, however, and it's not as if they're facing a Patriots offense that is at full strength. On the flip side of the equation, Bill Bellichick is known for his ability to have his team take away their opponent's best weapon and I expect that to hold true on Thursday as they do everything they can to minimize DeAndre Hopkins' contribution. The Texans still have other weapons but I don't have a lot of faith in QB Brock Osweiler lighting up this Patriots defense. New England gave up its share of points against Miami last week, but most of those points were scored when the game was already out of hand. The Patriots offense has been performing well but will undoubtedly take a step back with Jacoby Brissett under center. These two teams met last year in Houston and that game totaled just 33 points. I'm expecting more of the same this time around. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | 29-14 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Eagles are certainly the popular choice in this one, and why not? After all they sailed to a 29-10 win over the Browns last week with rookie QB Carson Wentz turning in a stellar debut performance. I'm not sure we see a repeat as Wentz makes his first career road start in Chicago, however. It's not easy to back the Bears these days, but I do like the way this spot sets up. This is a team in desperate need of a jolt and here they get a manageable matchup against an Eagles squad that isn't quite as complete as it appeared in that Week 1 victory. It's worth noting that Philadelphia will be without TE Zach Ertz on Monday, a key safety valve for QB Wentz. Ertz caught six passes for 60+ yards in last week's victory. The Bears are going to need a big game from a number of key players on offense, and for the defense to hold up better than it did a week ago. I'm betting they check both of those boxes on Monday. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is quick to proclaim Green Bay as being 'back' after its Week 1 win, but I'm not so sure. First of all, the Packers never really went anywhere, but let's not get too excited by that victory against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Yes, the Jags have some upside, but the Pack will face a much tougher challenge here against a Vikings squad that has its sights set on an NFC Championship - even with QB Teddy Bridgewater sidelined. The Vikes still have the pieces in place to get the job done and keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North all season long. They'll feed Adrian Peterson all night long on Sunday and let the defense take care of the rest. This will be a close one, I'm comfortable grabbing the points with Minnesota, even if we're not catching many. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse while the Raiders couldn't have looked any better in last week's respective season openers. Here I'll go against the public and back the Falcons plus the points as I feel they'll be highly-motivated, and capable of pulling off the "upset" win in the Black Hole. I'm a big fan of the Raiders this year, and I do believe there will be money to be made backing them, but we're going to have to pick our spots. This isn't one of them. The Raiders haven't had much of a home field advantage in recent years, but let's face it, their team has stunk. This is a different squad this year, but it certainly won't be able to catch the Falcons looking past it - not after last week's stunning victory in New Orleans. Atlanta has the type of offense that can give the Raiders trouble and I'm anticipating a big day from the Ryan-Jones combo. This has the makings of one of the week's more entertaining games. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 37.5 | 3-9 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs last week, with neither living up to expectations offensively in those contests. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this Sunday, however, as Seattle heads to Los Angeles to face the Rams in their home opener. Russell Wilson suffered a sprained ankle in last week's narrow win over the Dolphins, so there is some concern about his health heading into this one. All indications are that he will play though, and I'm confident he'll play well against a beatable Rams defense. Meanwhile it's probably only a matter of time before Jared Goff takes over the reins under center for the Rams, but at least for this week, I look for Case Keenum to hold his spot and perform well in a bounce-back spot against the Seahawks defense. We're dealing with a very low total here, I'm not sure it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Titans +6.5 v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Titans in this one, even after that demoralizing blown opportunity against the Vikings in their home opener last week. Of course, there's a big difference between the defense the Titans faced last week and the one they'll line up against this week at Ford Field. Detroit was involved in a wild contest in Indianapolis last week and ultimately prevailed by four points, but gave up a whopping 35 points in the process. Here they'll take a step down in class against a Titans offense that still has plenty of kinks to work out, but I'm confident we'll see Tennessee hang tough. I liked them last week and missed the mark, but I won't hesitate to go back to the well at better line value here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Buffalo at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Jets as they travel to Buffalo for an early season division showdown on Thursday night. New York battled but ultimately fell just short in a 23-22 loss to the Bengals last Sunday. The Jets offense looked disjointed in that game, although the Bengals defense had a lot to do with that. Here, New York will take a step down in class against the Bills defense. Speaking of shaky offensive performances, the Bills turned in a real stinker in Buffalo, scoring just a single touchdown in a losing effort. I honestly believe that there are some major changes necessary, and likely coming in Buffalo as the season progresses. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman just doesn't seem to be able to get the most out of the talent he has on hand, and I'm not sure anything will change in the Bills home opener on Thursday night. I'll get behind what I believe is the better all-around team in this one. Take New York (10*). |
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09-12-16 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 0-28 | Loss | -113 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Francisco at 10:20 pm et on Monday. Not to oversimplify things here, but I really think we're getting the lesser of two evils in the Rams on Monday night. There's a good chance the 49ers turn out to be one of the league's weakest teams this season so I'll gladly fade them here in Week 1 before the lines get out of hand. The Rams aren't going to set the NFC on fire in their first season back in Los Angeles. While I'm not a big fan of Case Keenum as a starting quarterback at this level I do believe he's serviceable in this particular matchup. On the flip side, the 49ers will lean heavily on their ground game in Chip Kelly's up-temp offense, especially when you consider Blaine Gabbert is getting the start under center. This one likely won't be pretty but I'm comfortable laying a short number with a Rams squad that will have plenty of motivation and certainly won't look past the 49ers on the road. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Patriots v. Cardinals OVER 44 | 23-21 | Push | 0 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Arizona at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a big downshift in the total with not only Tom Brady out but also Rob Gronkowski. While I'm not sure the Patriots can truly overcome both of those huge absences, I do believe they'll still find a way to put some points on the board against a great Cardinals defense. On the flip side, I'm high on the Arizona offense and believe we'll see them continue to show progression just as they did as the preseason went on. Arizona will undoubtedly get up for this matchup against the high profile Patriots and I expect to see a sharp offensive performance. The Cards may be known for their defense but they've taken some big steps offensively with Carson Palmer under center. Following the line move, we're seeing excellent value to play 'over' this relatively low total on Sunday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the Dolphins in an underdog role, not only this week, but this season in general. I believe we'll see the Miami offense really grind down the opposition, dinking and dunking down the field with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. This is a team desperate to find an offensive identity this season, and I'm confident they'll do just that. It certainly won't be difficult for the Fins to get up for this opening week matchup as they head west to face the always tough Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Seattle has its sights set on another NFC championship this year and while the pieces are in place for the Seahawks to contend for that title, there are a lot of question marks as well. Note that Seattle closed out last season on a 1-3 ATS slide. They may have to gut out a victory on Sunday afternoon. I'll grab all the points I can get with Miami. Take Miami (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Bucs +2.5 v. Falcons | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bucs finished last season with a whimper, dropping their final four games both SU and ATS. It's worth noting that their most recent win came against these same Falcons back on December 6th of last year. I'm fairly high on the Bucs entering the new campaign, however. I like the fact that they start the season with a road division game as they'll have little trouble getting up for this one. Meanwhile, Atlanta just seems disjointed to me. Matt Ryan continues to hold down the starting quarterback job but for how much longer? There just hasn't been enough winning in recent years and I'm not sure things change here in 2016. It's great to have Julio Jones on the field but he won't be enough on Sunday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is down on the Chargers again this year, but what else is new? I actually feel that the AFC West is going to be fairly wide open this season, however, and I don't consider the Chargers to be a down-trodden bunch entering the new campaign. Philip Rivers should do enough to keep his squad in this one from start to finish on Sunday. The Chiefs stumbled against the Patriots in the second round of the playoffs last January - there was certainly no shame in bowing out in the Divisional Round. This is a complete team, there's no question about that. But I simply feel the Chiefs are being asked to lay too many points in a division game, at home where the pressure is steep, right out of the gates in 2016. Kansas City has taken the last four meetings in this series, but prior to that the Chargers had dominated. Look for a tight one at Arrowhead on Sunday. Take San Diego (10*). |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | 20-21 | Win | 105 | 48 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Carolina at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I can’t help but feel the wrong team is being favored in this Super Bowl rematch between the Panthers and Broncos in Denver. In a less than eventful Super Bowl last February, Denver managed to outmuscle Carolina, thanks in large part to its suffocating defense. The Panthers caught fire last year and went on quite a run to reach that game, but in the end, I believe it was their lack of depth on the offensive side of the football that cost them. Cam Newton was frustrated by the Broncos defense, plain and simple, and I’m not sure that much will change seven months later. Denver is ushering in a new era offensively following Peyton Manning’s retirement, but let’s face it, the veteran Manning wasn’t exactly setting opposing defenses on fire the last couple of years. Trevor Siemian takes over the reins under center, this week at least, and I expect him to play better than most expect. Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are poised for bounce back campaigns while RB C.J. Anderson has been given the starting role, but will be pushed by rookie DeVontae Booker. In what should be an entertaining opener, I’ll back the Broncos to sting the Panthers once again. Take Denver (10*). |
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