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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-29-21 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 220 | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I really do feel this game has 'track meet potential' even though it isn't being priced as such. That's due in large part to the fact that the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0 in each of these teams last three games. I expect that trend to reverse on Friday, however. Credit the Kings for scoring more than 100 points in all four games this season as they've faced an absolutely brutal schedule, going up against Portland, Utah, Golden State and Phoenix. They haven't shot the ball particularly well but that's been a product of the level of opposition they've faced more than anything else. Here, they catch a Pelicans defense that is in line for some considerable defensive regression after holding three straight opponents to 41.7% or worse shooting. New Orleans has gotten off to an uneven start offensively but the signs of a breakout are there. Last time out against Atlanta the Pelicans scored 33 points in the first quarter, building a 14-point lead, but then got complacent and ultimately faded in the second half in a 102-99 loss (we did win with the Pelicans plus the points in that one but missed with the 'over'). Here, they face a Kings squad that has allowed at least 107 points in all four games this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 with the Pelicans having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 230.5 points. All three of last year's meetings between these two teams were high-scoring, totaling 251, 227 and 227 points. Of course, the Pelicans don't have the services of Zion Williamson right now, but they're no slouches offensively with the additions of Jonas Valanciunas and Devonte' Graham. Take the over (9*). |
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10-28-21 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 220.5 | 122-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won by the narrowest of margins with the 'over' in the Rockets last game as they fell by a 116-106 score in Dallas (some likely 'pushed' as the total ended up closing at 222). That one was set up well for a high-scoring result but a low-scoring fourth quarter ended up keeping the final score in a reasonable range, which has allowed us to step in and play the 'over' again on Thursday at an even more favorable number as the Rockets return home to host the Jazz. Houston isn't going to win many defensive slugfests this season. This young Houston squad is going to have to come up with something special offensively in order to outgun a superior Jazz squad on Thursday. While the Rockets have benefited from facing some teams that have yet to get rolling this season in the Thunder, Celtics and Mavs (they were rolled by the T'Wolves who have admittedly been playing well in their other contest), here they'll run into a Utah team that is coming off its best offensive performance of the season, putting up 122 points on just shy of 52% shooting against Denver two nights ago (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Jazz had little trouble running it up against the Rockets last season, scoring 114, 112 and 124 points in three meetings. The Rockets on the other hand were held under 100 points in two of those three matchups. I believe they're a better team this year, however. They've knocked down better than 47% of their field goal attempts in two previous home games this season and I think catching the Jazz 'fat and happy' off three consecutive lopsided wins to open the campaign is a good thing. Note that Utah did allow Denver to shoot 50.6% from the field on Tuesday. The 'over' is 32-17 with the Jazz coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.6 points. Meanwhile, the Rockets check in averaging 109.9 points when playing at home off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 226.9 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Cavs v. Clippers -8 | 92-79 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers stunned the Nuggets in Denver on Monday, notching their second straight win to even their record at 2-2 on the season. That's actually a better record than that of the Clippers, who check into this one sitting at 1-2. Los Angeles is, however, coming off its first victory and it was an impressive one as it rolled to a 30-point rout of the Blazers on Monday. I like the Clips to keep the good vibes going for at least one more game on Wednesday. The Cavs are off to a fine start but they're still playing with a very slim margin for error as far as I'm concerned. Keep in mind, in their first two games this season - both losses - they shot better than 50% from the field, yet still fell by double-digit margins. In their last two contests they benefited from off shooting nights from their opponents with the Hawks and Nuggets knocking down just 38.4% and 40.7% of their shots, respectively. The Clippers dropped their first two games but both of those were tough, on the road against Golden State and at home against Memphis. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by just two and six points. Note that the Cavs are a woeful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against Pacific Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 18.6 points in those contests. Despite Monday's victory, they're still just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games as a road underdog, outscored by 10.8 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Clips have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 14.7 points in their last eight home games against Central Division opponents. They won by 17 points as nine-point favorites the last time they faced the Cavs right here in L.A. last February. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 218.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed by a bucket with the 'over' in the Pacers most recent game - a double-digit home loss to the Bucks on Monday. A 41-point fourth quarter cost us in that one as the Pacers couldn't get anything going in their attempt to rally late. The 'under' has now cashed in Indiana's last two games, but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Pacers, and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Pacers have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 233.1 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 17-6 with Indiana coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.6 points. The Raptors might be in for a long season and certainly aren't going to set the league on fire with their offense, but I do think they'll be taking a step down in class against a Pacers team that doesn't play hard-nosed defense, certainly after going up against a strong defensive team like the Bulls last time out. Note that Indiana gave up 123 and 135 points in its two previous road games against Charlotte and Washington this season. The Raptors did manage to score 108 points on better than 48% shooting in a relatively slow-paced game against the Bulls last time out. Here, we can expect them to be baited into an up-tempo affair against a Pacers squad that has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in all four games. Finally, I'll note that the last time these two teams met last May we saw 238 points scored. The Raptors aren't the same team now but we're also dealing with a considerably lower total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks have certainly had the Pelicans number, taking five straight meetings in this series going back to the start of 2018, including both matchups (in blowout fashion) last season. I believe the Pelicans are well-positioned to put up a fight on Wednesday, however, as they return home after posting their first victory of the season in Minnesota on Monday. The Hawks are coming off a win and cover against the lowly Pistons on Monday but this is a team that has shown a fairly strong home-road dichotomy over the years. Note that while they check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season they dropped their lone road game, falling by a 101-95 score in Cleveland. In fact, they're just 32-48 ATS on the road over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.8 points. The Pelicans on the other hand are in one of their most favorable spots here, and that's playing at home off an outright underdog victory, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.7 points while averaging a whopping 123.9 points in that situation over the last 2+ seasons (13-game sample size). We've also seen them outscore the opposition by 4.2 points on average after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons (14-game sample size). New Orleans is obviously still without Zion Williamson but that's certainly been factored into the line (note that the Pelicans were +1.5 the last time they hosted the Hawks and only +3.5 the last time they played in Atlanta - both games were played last April). Take New Orleans (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218 | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Most are down on the Nuggets after their embarrassing home loss against the Cavaliers last night. I'm willing to take a flyer on the Denver offense here, however, noting that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Nuggets have come off a home loss, averaging 119.2 points on average in that spot with an average total of 227.1 points scored. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 49-33 o/u record when coming off an ATS win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 31-17 the last 48 times the Jazz have come off consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 227.5 points. This total has moved too low due to early season results. Take the over (8*). |
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10-26-21 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have posted nothing but 'under' results through three and two games respectively this season but we do have a 'catalyst for change' at work here as the Mavs play their first home game of the season. Dallas is in one of our favorite 'over'-friendly situations here, noting that the 'over' has gone 54-36 with the Mavs coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 227.2 points scored. Better still, the 'over' checks in 29-15 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, producing a total of 229.2 points on average. As for the Rockets, they were stymied by a desperate Celtics squad (that checked in 0-2 on the season) last time out, held to 97 points in a 10-point loss (we won with Boston in that game). Here, I expect them to fare better offensively, noting that the Mavs have allowed 115 points on average when returning home off a road win over the last 2+ seasons. After shooting a miserable 33.3% and 41.8% in their first two games, look for the Mavs to 'get right' offensively in this one while the Rockets go along for the ride in what will be a higher-scoring game than most are expecting. Take the over (10*). |
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10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229 | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We've seen this total drop since opening and I believe it's a knee-jerk reaction after the Pacers were involved in a low-scoring 102-91 victory over the Heat on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana's first two games this season totaled 245 and 269 points. In three meetings between the Bucks and Pacers last season we saw 240, 253 and 275 total points. When playing a Bucks 'over', we generally like to do so when they're coming off a win, noting that situation has produced a 37-23 o/u record going back to last season, good for an average total of 234.4 points scored. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 19-8 with the Pacers coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. Better still, the 'over' has gone 26-11 with the Pacers playing consecutive home games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.8 points. Take the over (8*). |
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10-24-21 | Celtics -5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start and coming off an ugly 115-83 home loss against the Raptors on Friday night. Meanwhile the Rockets have split their first two games and are fresh off a 124-91 home win over the Thunder on Friday. Here, we find the Celtics in a situation that has gone 36-13 ATS over the last five seasons, as they come off an upset loss as a favorite facing an opponent that's coming off a home win in which it scored 110+ points. Teams in that situation have outscored opponents by 13.1 points on average over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Celtics are 22-10 ATS after dropping two or more straight games ATS over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that spot. Last year, the Celtics were favored by 11 points in their lone stop in Houston and won by 27. Take Boston (8*). |
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10-22-21 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this spot sets up as a relatively low-scoring game between the Spurs and Nuggets on Friday night. San Antonio exploded for 123 points in its season-opener but that was at home against the lowly Magic - likely to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. San Antonio should find the going much tougher as it hits the road to face the Nuggets on Friday. Denver manhandled the defending Western Conference champion Suns in Phoenix two nights ago, cruising to a 110-98 win. Both the Spurs and Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field in their respective openers but repeating that performance will be tough two nights later. Lost in those impressive offensive performances was the fact that both teams played solid defense, holding the opposition to 40.7% and 41.4% shooting, respectively. The Spurs fall into one of my preferred 'under' systems that has cashed at a 25-6 clip over the last five seasons with just shy of 70% of those wins coming by seven points or more. That system involves playing the 'under' in a game where a losing team from the previous season comes off a home win in which it scored 110+ points, as is the case with San Antonio here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat had a productive preseason, going 5-1 and getting some new faces acclimated into the lineup while also wisely managing the minutes of all of its key contributors. I look for Miami to get the new season off to a positive start against the defending champion Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is of course already 1-0 on the season after an impressive win over the Nets on Tuesday. The win didn't come without a price, however, as Jrue Holliday did suffer a heel injury in the game. He is expected to play on Thursday but it's notable as the Bucks are already dealing with a number of banged-up players (Bobby Portis, Rodney Hood and Donte DiVincenzo are all sidelined). Here, we'll back the Heat noting that despite all of their ups and downs in recent years, they have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points here at home over the last couple of seasons. I expect them to bring plenty of energy to their home-opener on Thursday and I think they have the talent to back it up. Take Miami (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' with this total having dropped several points since opening. Given the way last season played out for both of these teams it's no real surprise to see the total move in that direction. There are bettors that are just learning that Klay Thompson, while set to return this season, won't be ready for the start of the campaign. Still, as the relatively short pointspread indicates, I believe the Warriors can keep this game competitive. The Lakers had their share of struggles defending their title last season, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a somewhat lacking supporting cast. Now we're talking about a different Lakers squad that I believe we'll be a lot more fun to watch with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony among those joining the fold. I'm not convinced either of these teams will be ready to come out playing hard-nosed defense. Note that the Lakers allowed at least 111 points in all six preseason contests - all losses. Meanwhile, the Warriors put up 111 points or more in all five preseason games, going undefeated along the way. Take the over (10*). |
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07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The wheels have inexplicably fallen off for the Suns as they've dropped three straight games to relinquish control of this series and now face the prospect of needing a road win to force a seventh and deciding game. While I'm not going to call for the outright victory, I do expect the Suns to give the Bucks all they can handle and at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Note that Phoenix checks in 11-2 ATS when playing on the road with triple revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10 points in that situation. Long ATS losing streaks have been few and far between this season, noting that the Suns have gone 24-11 ATS off an ATS loss, outscoring the opposition by 7.6 points on average in that spot. Milwaukee has gone a miserable 5-14 ATS after winning three of its last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. Off three or more consecutive wins, the Bucks have gone 6-17 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by a narrow average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. We've seen quite a pendulum swing in this series with 'Suns in four' a common refrain after Phoenix posted consecutive lopsided wins to open the series before the Bucks reeled off three straight victories. Now everyone is quick to bury the Suns, assuming they're incapable of winning a game in Milwaukee. I simply feel a letdown could be in order for the Bucks here after they shot a blistering 51.3% and 55.2% in the last two games - noting that they've shot better than 50% from the field in consecutive games only twice previously this season, never able to do so in three straight contests. The door is still open a crack for a Suns squad that has proven more than capable of winning on the road this season, having gone 30-16 SU and 25-19-2 ATS. We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Suns here. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 37 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We missed badly with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series on Saturday as neither team could miss in a high-scoring track meet. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however, as the Suns face the prospect of watching the Bucks hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy in Milwaukee. Note that the Bucks have now shot better than 50% in consecutive games - only the third time they've accomplished that feat this season. In both previous occurrences they failed to make it three straight games shooting north of 50%, with the 'under' cashing in both of those contests. Despite losing both games, the Suns have also shot better than 50% from the field in consecutive games. The Bucks certainly haven't been at their best defensively in this series but with a chance to win a championship at home on Tuesday night I would expect to see them rise to the occasion at that end of the floor, noting that they've allowed 2.1 points per game less than their season average and limited opponents to 44.9% shooting at home this season. Milwaukee is giving up just 105.5 points per game in the playoffs and 107 points per contest when attempting to close out a series. Phoenix had actually done a solid job defensively in this series, apart from allowing far too many free throws in the two games played here in Milwaukee, prior to getting lit up in Game 5 on Saturday. Perhaps building a 16-point first quarter lead was the worst thing that could have happened to the Suns as odd as it sounds, as complacency seemed to set in early in the second quarter and they were never able to regain their footing the rest of the way. The Suns still have a solid track record defensively in these playoffs, having allowed 104.5 points per game on 44% shooting. After allowing a series-high 21 fast break points on Saturday, look for them to make a concerted effort to slow the pace and turn this into more of a street fight on Tuesday night. Take the under (8*). |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Now that this series is tied up at two games apiece, this is obviously a critical Game 5 matchup between the Bucks and Suns in Phoenix on Saturday night. Despite the fact that we're dealing with non-conference foes, this will now be the seventh matchup between these two teams this season. As I've said many times previously, familiarity generally lends itself to tighter, lower-scoring basketball (relatively speaking) and I believe we're in for that type of affair on Saturday night in the desert. Milwaukee actually allowed Phoenix to shoot 51.3% from the field in Game 4. You would have to go all the way back to February 10th and 12th to find the last time the Bucks allowed north of 50% shooting in consecutive games this season so I expect them to bounce back at the defensive end of the floor here. Devin Booker of course went off for 42 points last time out but it's worth noting the two previous times he scored 40 points or more in these playoffs, he followed it up with 21 and 20-point efforts in his next game. The Bucks managed to score 120 and 109 points in their two home victories but that was thanks in large part to a considerable free throw disparity (they got to the free throw line 55 times in those two games), something they're not likely to experience again with the scene shifting back to Phoenix for Game 5. While the Suns offense has been prolific this season, it's been their defense that has really shone here at home, allowing just 106.6 points per game. In these playoffs they've allowed only 103.6 points per game with their games averaging a total of 212.6 points. Bucks playoff games have averaged 214.9 total points. Look for this one to stay 'under' the total on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bucks in Game 3 of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Suns as they look to grab a 3-1 stranglehold in this series on Wednesday night. Sunday's result could be chalked up as an anomaly as Phoenix had previously gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS when playing on two or more days' rest in these playoffs. It actually got off to a terrific start in that contest but ultimately couldn't match the Bucks desperation and fell behind by 20+ points entering the fourth quarter. The fact that Frank Kaminsky saw 13 minutes of playing time in that game tells you all you need to know about how that one played out. Here, we can expect the Suns to make the necessary defensive adjustments after Giannis Antetokounmpo went off for 41 points on 14-of-23 shooting (13-of-17 at the free throw line) in Game 3. It was just a solid all-around bounce-back game for the Bucks on Sunday with Jrue Holliday finally getting going again as well, knocking down 8-of-14 shots for 21 points. In the loss, Devin Booker shot a miserable 3-of-14 for 10 points for the Suns. We saw a similarly bad performance from him in Game 3 against the Clippers last round - a game Phoenix lost by 14 points. He responded by scoring 25 points in the next game, which the Suns won by an 84-80 score. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in these playoffs after Booker is held to less than 20 points, winning those next games by an average margin of 14 points. Note that Phoenix checks in an incredible 9-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12 points in that situation. The Suns have shot below 50% in three straight games to open this series. The last time they shot below that mark in three consecutive games they exploded with a 130-point outburst on 56.4% shooting on the road in Game 6 against the Clippers last round. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -177 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. There's obviously plenty of 'Suns in four' talk entering Game 3 of this series on Sunday night in Milwaukee. I'm not convinced it's going to be that straight-forward for Phoenix, however. Note that the Bucks check in 8-1 straight-up when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per game in that situation. They're also 11-3 SU when revenging a double-digit road loss over the last two seasons and an impressive 27-7 SU when playing at home after an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.2 points in that spot. Phoenix has gotten incredible offensive production from all over the court in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they do score and allow 1.5 points per game less and more, respectively, than their season average on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks have barely managed to play above .500 basketball on the road this season but check in 22 games over .500 here at home, where they allow nearly two points per game less than their season average. Despite how the first two games in this series have gone, the Bucks are still outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.3 points in these playoffs. They're obviously in desperate need of a victory to give themselves any sort of chance in this series and I look for them to come up with just that on Sunday night. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Suns in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Thursday. We saw some nerves early on in Game 1 but once the two teams settled down the offenses started flowing and we didn't see a great deal of tough defensive play. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2. Generally, I like to play Bucks 'overs' when they come off a win, and 'unders' when they follow a loss. The trends bear it out as Milwaukee has posted an 11-20 o/u record when coming off a loss this season. Better still, the 'under' has gone 12-3 when the Bucks come off three consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here. Keep in mind, the 'under' is still 10-7-1 in all Bucks playoff games with an average total of just 214.1 points scored. The 'under' owns a slight 9-8 edge in Suns playoff games with those contests totaling an average of only 211.5 points. While Phoenix won Game 1 there are still adjustments for it to make here after Milwaukee shot 44% from beyond the arc, knocking down 16 three-pointers in the series-opener. Meanwhile, we should see some regression from the Suns in a couple of key areas here after Chris Paul poured in 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting and DeAndre Ayton put up 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting on Tuesday night. Note that it was only the fourth time in these playoffs that CP3 scored more than 22 points while Ayton averages just 14.4 points per game on 62.6% shooting this season. The Bucks obviously need to make some adjustments here and I'm confident they will noting that they allow just 104.5 points per game on 44.3% shooting in these playoffs. Take the under (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns have actually dropped the cash in each of their last two home games which is notable as they've lost three consecutive home games ATS only once this entire season, that coming way back in January when they just weren't playing good basketball, mired in a 3-7 stretch. Here, I look for the well-rested Suns to come up with a big Finals-opening performance, regardless whether the Bucks have the services of Giannis Antetokounmpo or not. Milwaukee has of course been a different team on the road compared to at home this season. You wouldn't know it based on its most recent dominant performance, closing out the Hawks in Atlanta in blowout fashion on Saturday. Note that the Bucks are still just 19-26 ATS on the road this season where they allow just shy of 114 points per game. The Suns on the other hand, have gone 28-16 ATS on their home floor, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points. Note that the Bucks are just 5-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 8-23 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Phoenix owns an incredible 16-3 ATS record as a home favorite of six points or less this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 11.8 points in that spot. When coming off a double-digit win over a division opponent (as is the case here after their blowout victory over the Clippers last time out), the Suns have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.2 points on average. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 216.5 | 118-107 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring Game 5 on Thursday night, ending a streak of three straight 'under' results in the series. I'm not anticipating another track meet here, however, as the Hawks return home to face elimination on Saturday night. We can expect Atlanta to make the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing on Thursday, as it allowed Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field. Giannis isn't expected back for the Bucks and while Trae Young may or may not be able to return for the Hawks, I like this play regardless. Note that the 'under' has gone 29-16 with the Bucks playing on the road off an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed at a 17-7 clip with the Hawks playing the role of home favorite this season. Off Thursday's relatively lopsided game, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair here on Saturday and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring result, noting that Bucks playoff games have averaged just 212.8 total points while Hawks postseason games have resulted in an average total of 213.4 points. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 5 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Hawks as the series shifts back to Atlanta on Saturday night. The Bucks are of course expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo once again on Saturday night. While there's a better chance that Trae Young is able to play for the Hawks, that's certainly no guarantee. Regardless whether he plays or not, I expect to see the Hawks bounce back with one of their best efforts of the series off of Thursday's lopsided loss. Note that the Bucks are just 4-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Hawks have gone 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.5 points in that situation. After allowing Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field in Game 5 we can expect Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it has been a considerably better defensive team at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 2.5 points per game less than its season-average while holding the opposition to under 45% shooting. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2 | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Hawks in Game 4 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bucks, even with Giannis likely sidelined on Thursday night. Milwaukee allowed Atlanta to shoot 50.6% from the field in a game that was never really close on Tuesday. The Bucks do have a terrific track record of bouncing back from performances like that, however, noting that the only other time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field in these playoffs, they responded with a gritty 86-83 road win over the Nets last round. In fact, they're 7-2 SU the last nine times they've come off a game in which they allowed the opposition to shoot better than 50%. The Hawks are hoping to have Trae Young back in the lineup on Thursday but regardless whether he plays, I still expect Milwaukee to rise to the occasion. Young's absence seemed to have a galvanizing effect on the Hawks in Game 4 but now we could very well see a letdown. Note that the Bucks have gone 39-24 ATS off an outright upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.7 points. Giannis' absence certainly doesn't help their cause here, but we've seen Khris Middleton step up previously in this series and I expect him to relish taking a starring role on Thursday as well. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-30-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Suns in Game 4 of this series last Saturday before switching gears to cash the first half 'over' in Game 5 on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Phoenix as it looks to wrap up this series and advance to its first NBA Finals since 1993. Paul George went into 'superstar mode' for the Clippers in Game 5, shooting a blistering 15-for-20 from the field and pouring in 41 points as Los Angeles staved off elimination with an 'upset' win in Phoenix. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to fade teams after they have a player 'go off' in their previous contest. Lost in George's monster performance was the fact that Devin Booker also got on track with a 31-point effort - the first time he eclipsed the 30-point mark since scoring 41 in Game 1 against the Clips. Note that the Suns check in an incredible 11-2 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.4 points. They've gone 23-9 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points on average. Phoenix has shot 45.2% or worse in three consecutive games - its longest such streak this season. It did shoot 45.7% or worse in three straight games back in round one against the Lakers. In their next game, the Suns shot better than 50% from the field and won by a 113-100 score right here at Staples Center. A similar scoreline would be well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 218.5 | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Sunday night. In fact, we've won with the 'under' in each of the last two games. Here, I look for a different story to unfold in Game 4. We're being given a discounted total here due in large part to Hawks superstar Trae Young's status being up in the air after he bruised his foot in Sunday's loss. I would expect Young to play in this game but even if he doesn't, I still expect to see a relatively high-scoring affair. I've noted before that the Bucks have been a solid 'over' bet when coming off a win this season. Better still, off two or more consecutive victories, Milwaukee has posted a 23-12 o/u mark this season with those contests averaging 237.1 total points. Also note that the 'over' is 15-5 with the Hawks playing at home after a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games reaching an average total of 237.0 points. Keep in mind, the Bucks are allowing nearly two points per game higher than their season average points allowed when playing on the road this season. With the 'under' having gone a combined 19-9-1 in all Bucks and Hawks playoff games, it's not a surprise that the totals are starting to get shaded much lower than we're accustomed to seeing. We even saw a closing total as high as 234 points in a game between these two teams back in April. With this being a virtual must-win for the Hawks (few teams come back from a 3-1 series deficit in the NBA Playoffs, especially without home court advantage) I expect them to throw everything they've got at Milwaukee here, which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Bucks on Tuesday coming off Khris Middleton's 38-point explosion in Game 3 (we won with the 'under' in that game). The Hawks are of course dealing with an injury to Trae Young, who may or may not be able to play due to a bruised foot suffered on Sunday. Whether he can go or not, I still like Atlanta in this spot as we're being given a generous helping of points with the home side, noting that the Hawks have already defeated the Bucks by seven as a six-point home underdog without Young in the lineup back in late April. Milwaukee has shot better than 51% in consecutive games - the first time it has accomplished that feat since May 13th and 15th. On that occasion, they followed up those two games with a 118-112 loss in Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite, shooting just 42.2% from the field in that loss. Note that the Bucks check in a miserable 4-12 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. They're also 8-22 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games overall this season, as is the case here, only managing to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points in that spot. The Hawks are 15-5 ATS playing at home off a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons and 28-15 ATS when at home off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 points on average in the latter situation. Finally, in 10 games played at home after two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, the Hawks have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 214 | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Monday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'first half over' which is currently set at 106 points at the time of writing. While I would like to play the full game 'over' the total in this one off that ridiculously low-scoring Game 4 result on Saturday, I can't quite get there with the possibility that we see the Suns shift into cruise control should they build a sizeable second half lead in this one. In general, it seems that we've seen a trend this round with games starting out fairly high-scoring before petering out down the stretch. We can expect the Suns to come out with an attacking mindset here as they look to wrap up this series and give themselves even more rest heading into the NBA Finals. We certainly haven't seen their best over the last couple of games, particularly from Devin Booker after he broke his nose in Game 2. Back at home, I do expect to see a much better offensive showing from Phoenix, noting that it averages just shy of 59 points per game in the first half here this season. For the Clippers, this could be their last stand and off a miserable 32.5% shooting performance on Saturday we can expect them to bounce back and come out strong here, noting that they hadn't shot worse than 45% from the field since Game 1 against Utah last round and even in that contest they shot a respectable 42.4%. Game 4 marked the first time since back on April 1st that Los Angeles was held to fewer than 100 points in a game. Again, should the Suns build a considerable lead in the second half of this game we could very well see the Kawhi-less Clippers fold the tent and call it a season. With that in mind, we'll call for a relatively high-scoring start as this one gets 'over' the very reasonable first half total. Take the first half over (10*). |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224 | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. The first two games in this series have been relatively high-scoring although only one of those contests managed to find its way 'over' the total. We won with the 'under' in Game 2 on Friday night and I'll go back to the well with the same play here as the scene shifts to Atlanta on Sunday. The Bucks put up 125 points in Friday's blowout win. The last time we saw them put up that type of offensive performance, their next game easily stayed 'under' the total, reaching only 197 points in Game 3 of round one against Miami. Note that Bucks playoff games are averaging a total of just 212.1 points. Hawks playoff games are averaging just 212.9 total points. Atlanta, like most NBA teams, has been a better defensive team at home this season, where it gives up 108.5 points per game compared to its season average of 110.7 ppg allowed. I don't think they want to get involved in a track meet with Milwaukee here as that would play into the Bucks preferred pace of play. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 of this series but perhaps that was to be expected after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead thanks to a thrilling last-second win in Game 2 (we won with the Clippers in Game 3). Here, I look for Phoenix to bounce back in all areas of the game as it looks to grab a 3-1 stranglehold on the series before heading back home. Much has been made of Devin Booker's awful 5-of-21 shooting night and whether it had anything to do with him wearing a protective mask after breaking his nose in Game 2. Regardless whether the mask played a role, I expect him to respond with a big performance on Saturday night. The best generally bounce back and Booker is certainly in that elite category a this stage of his career. For the Suns, Game 3 was also their first game of the series with Chris Paul back in the lineup. I did figure it would take some time for him to get re-acclimated with the offense and that certainly appeared to be the case. Look for a more cohesive effort from the Suns offense here on Saturday. Note that Phoenix has gone 8-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 12.9 points on average in that situation. The Suns have been an excellent bounce-back team all season, going 16-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.2 points when coming off a loss of any kind. While the Suns did hold Paul George relatively in check in Game 3 (he shot 9-of-26 from the field for 27 points), they'll need to play with a lot more intensity here after George and Ivica Zubac combined to haul in 31 rebounds. Again, it was no real surprise that we saw Phoenix take a breath in Game 3 after they had not only won the first two games in this series, but nine straight overall. The only other time they lost a game by double-digits in these playoffs, they responded with a 100-92 victory right here at Staples Center in Game 4 against the Lakers in round one. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Credit the Hawks for posting a more convincing Game 1 victory than the final score indicated two nights ago. Now it's the Bucks turn to answer back and that they will on Friday night. The fact that Milwaukee came out flat in Game 1 wasn't all that surprising. After all, it was coming off a grueling seven-game battle against the Nets - who were favored to win the NBA title. Getting up for the upstart Hawks was going to be a challenge and it played out accordingly on Wednesday night. Here, I'm confident we'll see a much sharper performance from the Bucks at both ends of the floor. Note that they check in 67-49 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.9 points. They're 31-11 SU at home this season, where they outscore the opposition by eight points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Hawks are just 20-36 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons. They're also just 7-18 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons, outscored by a wide average margin of 15 points in that spot. Take Milwaukee (9*). |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Game 1 managed to creep over the total in the closing minute of the fourth quarter but I look for a different story to unfold on Friday night. Keep in mind, Hawks playoff games have totaled an average of just 212.6 points. Meanwhile, Bucks playoff games have totaled only 211.7 points on average. The Bucks have of course been a much better defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 111 points per game on 44.8% shooting. The Hawks on the other hand, average 1.5 points per game fewer and shoot 0.6% below their season average on the road. That's not a big difference by any means but still worth noting as they come off a peak performance away from home in Game 1. The 'under' is a perfect 10-0 the last 10 times the Hawks have played on the road coming off consecutive outright road underdog victories, as is the case here. Milwaukee has seen the 'under' go a solid 19-10 when coming off a loss this season with those games totaling an average of 220.3 points. Take the under (9*). |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is quick to count out the Kawhi-less Clippers after falling in an 0-2 hole in this series and with Chris Paul set to return for the Suns. I do feel we'll see what will potentially be the Clips best performance of the series on Thursday night, however, as they return home in desperate need of a victory to make this a series. Keep in mind, even with Kawhi Leonard in and out of the lineup all season, one thing has remained fairly consistent and that has been Los Angeles ability to win games at home having gone 30-13, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points here at Staples Center. The Clips have also been a long-term winning bet when coming off a loss, going 37-21 ATS in their last 58 opportunities, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.2 points. We've seen Los Angeles lose consecutive games on two previous occasions in these playoffs. Following those mini-skids, the Clippers answered back with perhaps their two best games of the playoffs to date, defeating the Mavs 118-108 on 57.9% shooting in Game 3 of the opening round and throttling the Jazz 132-106 on 56.2% shooting in Game 3 last round. The difference here is they won't have Kawhi Leonard to lean on. Nonetheless, I believe they have a win in them in this series, and it comes on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 224 | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. Thanks to Game 1 finishing north of 230 points we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the series-opener, a move that I'm not convinced is warranted. The Clippers allowed the Suns to shoot better than 55% from the field in Game 1. Perhaps that wasn't all that surprising considering how little time they had to prepare for the Suns surging offense (which had a different look than they're used to with Chris Paul sidelined). Here, we can bank on the Clippers responding favorably from a defensive standpoint noting that on five previous occasions where they've come off a game where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 55% from the field they've given up just 103.6 points per contest. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-18 the last 50 times the Clippers have played as a road underdog, as is the case here. The Suns are known for their offense led by Devin Booker (who recorded a triple-double in Game 1) and Chris Paul (who as I mentioned remains sidelined). However, they're actually a quality defensive team, allowing just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season. There's no question that Kawhi Leonard's absence makes the Clippers a weaker defensive team but it hurts them offensively as well. The Suns didn't do a great job of defending Paul George in Game 1 but just like Los Angeles, Phoenix should make the necessary defensive adjustments here. Noting that this will now be the fifth meeting between these two teams this season with only Game 1 finding its way 'over' the total we're dealing with for Game 2, familiarity has a tendency to lend itself to tighter, lower-scoring contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216 | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. This is the lowest total we've seen in this series so far. I believe it will prove too low. The Hawks have held the 76ers to 46.7% shooting or worse in three straight games but I think this is a game where they struggle to 'hold onto the rope' so to speak. Philadelphia is a better offensive team than it has shown over the last few games, averaging 117.9 points per game here at home this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-12 with the 76ers playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 222.3 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with the 76ers at home off an ATS victory, with that situation producing an average total of 231.8 points. Meanwhile, the Hawks have shot 47.6% or worse in five straight games since opening this series with a 51.2% shooting performance in a 128-124 victory. Atlanta really has nothing to lose in this one as few gave it any legitimate shot at winning this series from the outset. There's little reason for the Hawks to hold anything back and should they fall behind, we can expect them to shift into 'hack-a-Ben' mode in an effort to extend this game. Take the over (10*). |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 76ers (moneyline) in Game 6 of this series and I won't hesitate to come right back with them again as they host Game 7 against the Hawks on Sunday night. Atlanta had its chance to close out this series on its home floor and came up just short on Friday night. Now I suspect it is going to have a tough time getting back up and keeping this game competitive on Sunday night. The 76ers have been a terrific home team all season, going 33-9 SU and 25-16 ATS here in Philadelphia, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.1 points. While the Hawks check in 6-18 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12.5 points over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.7 points. On the flip side, the 76ers are 30-20 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.5 points. Better still, Philadelphia has gone 22-8 ATS when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.9 points. This series should probably already be over for all intents and purposes given the way the 76ers coughed up Game 5 on their home floor. Look for them to turn in one of their best performances of the series as they close out the Hawks in convincing fashion on Sunday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 215 | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. Whether this is a competitive affair or a blowout, I like the chances of it being high-scoring after the first six games in this series have been predominantly low-scoring (relatively speaking), with the 'under' cashing at a 5-1 clip (or 5-0-1 depending on your number in Game 5). The Nets essentially 'folded the tent' and moved on to Game 7 after falling behind in Game 6 in Milwaukee on Thursday. Here, we can expect them to bounce back from a poor 89-point effort back home where they've put up 115, 125 and 114 points in this series. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Bucks coming off a double-digit home win this season with those games totaling an average of 236.4 points. The 'over' has generally been a solid bet with Milwaukee following an 'under' result, going 46-33 over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 230.4 points. As for the Nets, they've actually allowed 113.3 points per game as a favorite this season, with the 'over' cashing at a 35-23 clip. That situation has produced an average total of 233.1 points. The Bucks just aren't the same defensive team on the road, where they allow 114.5 points per game this season. If they're going to finally steal a game here in Brooklyn when it matters most, they're going to need to put up a peak offensive performance, but given they average just shy of 118 points per game away from home, we know that they're capable. Take the over (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted in Game 6 of this series as the Bucks cruised to an easy, double-digit victory to force a seventh and deciding game back in Brooklyn on Saturday night. Here, we'll back the Nets at a short number as they look to hold serve for a fourth time at home and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in the process. The Bucks have offered the Nets their best punches in the last two games of this series, shooting better than 49% from the field in a six-point loss here in Brooklyn in Game 5 before registering a 16-point home win in Game 6. Now it's the Nets turn to answer back with a peak performance here at home, even without Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn has of course been a tremendous home team this season, going 34-8 while outscoring the opposition by just shy of eight points per game. The Nets have gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS here at home in these playoffs. Game 6 was always going to be an uphill battle for the Nets off an emotional, Kevin Durant-fueled Game 5 victory here at home. Not surprisingly, the Bucks came out with more energy and had little trouble forcing a seventh game. Now the situation sets up well for the Nets, noting that Milwaukee has gone 5-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning two of its last three games this season. We're dealing with a short pointspread here for a reason as the Nets certainly aren't the same team without their 'Big Three' intact. With that being said, I do think they're right where they want to be, at home with a chance to close out this series, and I look for them to take full advantage. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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06-18-21 | 76ers -150 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia moneyline over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Friday. We'll back the 76ers on the moneyline in this matchup as while I do expect them to prevail, their poor free throw shooting could leave the backdoor ever so slightly open in the late stages of this contest. Credit Atlanta for rallying to steal Game 5 in Philadelphia two nights ago. The 76ers were guilty of taking their foot off the gas and perhaps looking ahead to a potential series clincher here in Atlanta in Game 6. Instead, now it's the 76ers who will be facing elimination on Friday night. I look for them to avoid that fate, however. Philadelphia is a quality road team by NBA standards, having posted a 22-18 SU record away from home this season, outscoring the opposition by 2.9 points per game on average. Note that the Sixers check in a solid 35-18 SU having outscored opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a long-term loser at 18-39 SU the last 57 times it has played after recording consecutive outright underdog wins. There's really no intimidation factor at play here. The 76ers know they can beat the Hawks, regardless of the setting, having already posted a 16-point victory here on this floor back in Game 3. Philadelphia hasn't lost three games in a row since a four-game skid from April 19th-24th and it's worth noting that it was the underdog in three of those four contests, unlike this situation where it has been favored in every game in this series. Take Philadelphia moneyline (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Monday night but I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as the series shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 5. The Hawks aren't going to slow down the 76ers offense here in Philadelphia. That's a feat they've yet to accomplish in four previous tries this season, allowing 127, 127, 124 and 118 points. I fully expect to see them come out with an attacking mindset from the opening tip on Wednesday as they look to take advantage of a somewhat depleted 76ers defense with Joel Embiid playing on a bad knee. Monday's miserable 36.6% shooting performance from Atlanta had more to do with poor shot selection than it did the 76ers defense as far as I'm concerned. Look for the Hawks to do a better job of knocking down their shots on Wednesday night. For the 76ers this is obviously a critical contest as they look to avoid being pushed to the brink of elimination with the series going back to Atlanta for Game 6. Note that the Hawks have been a considerably weaker defensive team on the road compared to at home this season, allowing 112.9 points per game on north of 47% shooting. For their part, the 76ers check in averaging over 118 points per game here at home. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the 76ers playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season with those contests averaging a total of 229.7 points. The 'over' is also 15-5 with Philadelphia coming off a loss by six points or less, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 226.3 points over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 217 | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen an incredible swing in this total since the start of this series, largely due to the injuries to Nets superstars James Harden and Kyrie Irving, but also due to the general low-scoring nature of the series so far. Here, I look for a different story to unfold as far as the scoring output goes and feel the total is moving in the wrong direction. It's certainly worth noting that the Bucks defense is not the same on the road as it has been at home this season. They check in allowing 114.5 points per game on just shy of 46% shooting away from home this season with their games averaging 232.7 total points. While the Nets aren't the same explosive offensive team with only one of the 'big three', it's not as if they're completely devoid of talent. If anything Kevin Durant will take this as a challenge and we know he's capable of taking over a game all on his own. Now that they've evened this series at two games apiece and with the Nets suddenly missing two of their best three players, I expect the Bucks to carry an attacking mindset into this Game 5 matchup in Brooklyn. We haven't seen much of a drop-off in production from the Bucks offensively on the road this season, even if they did turn in an absolutely dreadful performance the last time they played here in Game 2. Coming off a series-high tying 107-point effort in Game 4 and knowing there is so much room for improvement (they've shot 44.6% or worse in all four games in this series), I believe a Bucks offensive breakout is imminent at this point. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Bucks coming off a double-digit home win this season with those games totaling an average of 237.2 points. The 'over' is also 13-4 with the Nets coming off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last two seasons, with those contests reaching an average total of 238 points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 226 | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The 76ers have absolutely shot the lights out in this series, shooting 52.9% or better from the field in all three games. They've now shot better than 51% in four consecutive games, one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. They posted that five-game streak back in the first two weeks of March but that stretch included games against the likes of the Pacers, Bulls, Wizards and Spurs. The Hawks have actually been a solid defensive team, particularly at home where they allow 108.8 points per game on 45.1% shooting on the season. Despite the 'over' result in Game 3, the 'under' remains a profitable 21-17-1 in their 39 home games this season. Note that the 'under' checks in 8-1 with the Hawks playing at home off two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, with those games averaging just 212.5 total points. The 76ers have now allowed 100 or more points in six straight games, their longest such streak since April 14th to 24th. In their next game following that previous six-game streak they gave up only 90 points in a win over Oklahoma City. That game totaled just 211 points, staying comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. This line is moving in the wrong direction in my opinion. While the Nuggets are highly unlikely to give the Suns a serious run int his series I do think that they can salvage at least one game. Note that Denver is 10-2 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points. In fact, coming off a home loss of any kind this season, the Nuggets have outscored opponents by 12.8 points on average the 12 times that situation has come up. They're also an impressive 17-5 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 14.4 points in that situation. I have a lot of respect for Phoenix. There's a reason I didn't fade them in Game 3 (instead playing the 'under'). However, the fourth win is always the toughest in a series and I expect them to get extended at least one more game against a Nuggets squad that should play with some pride on Sunday night. Take Denver (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We've missed with the 'over' in the last couple of games in this series but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon. The fact that the Nets are favored in this game is key. Note that the 'over' is 18-8 with Brooklyn checking in as a road favorite this season with those contests totaling an average of 239.8 points. Meanwhile the 'over' is 8-1 with the Bucks coming off a home win where they failed to cover the spread this season with those games reaching an average total of 248.6 points. Milwaukee has been a solid positive momentum play offensively this season, averaging a whopping 122.4 points per game when coming off a victory, as is the case here. While the Bucks were set on mucking things up and grinding out a Game 3 victory, here I look for the Nets to make the necessary adjustments and turn Sunday's game into a track meet. Take the over (10*). |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -190 | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles moneyline over Utah at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. While the other Western Conference series is all but over with the Nuggets dropping three straight games in decisive fashion against the Suns, I think we're still in for a long series between the Jazz and Clippers. Utah prevailed in Games 1 and 2 but both games were close, despite the Jazz turning in near-flawless performances offensively. Of course, the Jazz have been virtually unbeatable at home all season so the fact that this series is 2-0 in their favor is no real surprise. Now the Clippers have an opportunity to get back in the series with three consecutive games here at home. Rather than lay the points in this Game 3 matchup, I'm going to back the Clips on the moneyline, only because I feel the price, while steep, could be even higher. I do have a lot of respect for Utah and certainly feel a backdoor cover could be in play in this one. Keep in mind, save for save for one Utah blowout, four of five meetings in this series have been decided by six points or less. Note that Los Angeles has outscored the opposition by 10.2 points on average when coming off a loss over the last two seasons and checks in 27-13 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.9 points on average. Take Los Angeles moneyline (9*). |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We barely escaped with a win with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The fact that the 76ers have shot better than 52% from the field in each of the first two games in this series is impressive, but not sustainable. In fact, Philadelphia checks in having shot better than 51% from the field in three straight games entering Friday's contest. Note that they haven't shot north of 50% in more than three consecutive games since the start of March and that five-game streak was the only time they pulled it off this season. Philadelphia has been a considerably worse offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, where it averages 110.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting. The good news for the Sixers is that they've actually allowed fewer points on the road than at home, giving up only 107.8 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip this season. Likewise, Hawks home games have been lower scoring than their road games. They're an underrated defensive squad, particularly at home where they've allowed just 108.3 points per game on 44.7% shooting this season, with the 'under' going 21-16-1. Note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the 76ers playing on the road as a favorite of six points or less this season with those games totaling an average of just 215 points. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 2 between these two teams two nights ago as the lack of competitiveness from the Bucks once again led to a lower-scoring game than expected. It's become evident that Milwaukee isn't going to be able to slow down the Nets scoring machine, having now allowed 125, 114, 118, 115 and 125 points, with Brooklyn hardly breaking a sweat in the latter two performances, in five meetings this season. If the Bucks are going to get back in this series they're going to need to come up with a big offensive showing themselves on Thursday and I'm confident we'll see exactly that. Note that Milwaukee averages just shy of 121 points per game at home this season. It falls into an excellent situation here with the 'over' having gone 15-5 the last 20 times Milwaukee has been seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (the Bucks inexplicably closed as short favorites in Game 2 in Brooklyn). In that situation, the Bucks have averaged over 123 points per game with an average total of 239.8 points. Brooklyn has actually been a higher-scoring team on the road than at home this season, averaging 119.9 points per game with an average total of 237.1 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -154 | Top | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee moneyline over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the fact that the Bucks have had two full days to sit around and listen to everyone saying they're a 'regular season team' and that they have no shot at coming back against the Nets in this series. Keep in mind, Milwaukee closed as a favorite in Game 2 of this series in Brooklyn. The oddsmakers were certainly giving them more than just a chance at getting back in this series at that point. Now we're seeing an overreaction following the lopsided nature of Game 2. Consider that the Nets have gone just 2-7 SU after a win by 20 points or more this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in those nine contests. They're also just 3-7 SU when on the road after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games this season, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an incredible 15-3 SU when seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite (yes, they closed as a short favorite in Game 2) over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that Milwaukee checks in 35-9 SU when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the relatively lopsided result in the opener of this series I still think this has the makings of a long series between two teams that have the ability to win away from home. Case in point, the Nuggets took two of three games in Portland in the opening round and despite their Game 1 loss, check in 24-16 away from home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.6 points. Here, we find the Nuggets an incredible 12-2 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.9 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Suns are just 10-22 ATS when playing at home after scoring 120 points or more in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points in that situation. There's really no intimidation factor at play here as the Nuggets have taken five of the last six meetings in this series here in Phoenix. The Suns have looked better when playing on more than one day of rest during these playoffs, particularly with Chris Paul dealing with a nagging shoulder injury. They're just 2-2 ATS when playing on one day of rest but a perfect 3-0 ATS when coming off two or more off days. Both of their SU losses in these playoffs came on one day of rest. Take Denver (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this game found its way 'over' the total which was not a surprising result by any means. I will be surprised if we don't see both teams tighten up defensively in Game 2 on Wednesday night, however. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-9 with the Nuggets coming off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 219.3 points. Also note that the Nuggets have allowed just 107.6 points per game when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons while the Suns have given up just 102.2 points per game when favoted by six points or less at home this season. The Suns have generally been at their best offensively with two or more days' rest between games in these playoffs - largely due to Chris Paul's nagging shoulder injury needing time to heal up between games. Here, we're back to a game on just one day of rest which I do think could diminish the Suns offense somewhat. Phoenix is absolutely locked in defensively right now holding the opposition to 46.7% shooting or worse in seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets know they need to toughen up defensively here after allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better in three of their last four games. The 'over' has cashed in three straight meetings in this series. Time for a reversal of that trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This line is moving in the wrong direction as far as I'm concerned. The 76ers clearly took the Hawks lightly in the opener of this series on Sunday, falling behind big early as the Hawks simply couldn't miss in the first half. They did rally to make a game of it, however, showing a bit of Atlanta's inexperience in the process. Here, I look for the Sixers to bounce back with a convincing win. Note that Philadelphia has gone 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of six points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.9 points. Better still, the Sixers are 21-8 ATS at home after losing two of their last three games, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Atlanta is still a losing team on the road this season at 19-21 and checks in 20-34 ATS after winning consecutive games ATS over the last three seasons, outscored by 5.8 points on average in that spot. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 223 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the opener of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night. After taking two of three regular season meetings, the 76ers may have got caught taking the Hawks lightly in the series-opener. They got smacked in the mouth early in that game and didn't really recover until the fourth quarter when it was too little, too late. Here, I do expect to see the Sixers bounce back, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that the last three times they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field they responded by holding their next opponent to 90, 97 and 95 points, with none of those three contests eclipsing the total we're dealing with tonight. Meanwhile, thanks to a fourth quarter lapse, the Hawks allowed the Sixers to shoot better than 54% from the field in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that game they had held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Note that the 'under' is 23-7 the last 30 times the Hawks have been leading a playoff series. The 'under' is also 35-17 with the 76ers playing at home following a game that totaled 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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06-07-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 233.5 | 86-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Bucks are going to have to perform much better offensively than they did in Game 1 if they want to have any shot at upsetting the Nets in this series. I expect them to put forth a stronger showing here in Game 2 and a more competitive game should lend itself to the 'over'. Note that Game 1 was headed well north of the lofty total before the Nets took their foot off the gas with a big lead in the fourth quarter. The first three quarters totaled 62, 62 and 58 points - good for a full-game pace of 242.7 points. The fourth quarter totaled only 40 points. Now we're seeing a considerable overreaction in the Game 2 total, partly due to Game 1 being lower-scoring than expected, but also due to James Harden being sidelined for the Nets. Brooklyn is certainly used to playing without its 'Big Three' fully intact, however, and I expect it to still thrive offensively in this one. If anything, Harden's absence should only make Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving more aggressive in their shot selection. Keep in mind, two of three regular season matchups between these two teams totaled north of 240 points. Expect a return to form here. Take the over (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 215 | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. This has turned into a low-scoring series over the last three games and I anticipate more of the same in Sunday's Game 7 matchup in Los Angeles. This is going to be a tough spot for Mavs superstar Luka Doncic as he comes off two straight 40+ minute performances and plays for the third time in five days while still dealing with that neck strain. Both teams have proven capable of tightening things up in crunch time, going back-and-forth over the last three games in this series. With the road team having dominated, this is obviously the Mavs turn to step up, but I do think they'll be met with a strong defensive effort from the Clips here. On the flip side, the Los Angeles offense led by Kawhi Leonard and Paul George hasn't given us much reason to trust it here at Staples Center in this series. Luka gets all of the headlines but the Mavs can play some defense as well and will undoubtedly show up off of Friday's fourth quarter meltdown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Regardless whether Joel Embiid is able to suit up for the 76ers or not, I like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 1 in this Eastern Conference semi-final series on Sunday. The Hawks cruised past the Knicks in round one but should find the going much tougher against the 76ers in round two. Note that Philadelphia checks in 32-7 at home this season where it has held opponents to 45% shooting this season. The 76ers have been locked in defensively for quite some time, having allowed just two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field going all the way back to April 26th. I'm not convinced the pace alone in this series is going to get many games up into the 220's. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the Sixers last three games, we haven't seen the 'over' cash in four straight games involving Philadelphia since way back in late February-early March when it posted a four-game 'over' streak. The Hawks, meanwhile, are a better defensive squad than most give them credit for. Trae Young and his sharp-shooting abilities grabs the headlines, but this team can play some 'D', as evidenced by the fact that it has held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse entering this series. After allowing 126 and 127 points in consecutive losses to the Sixers here in Philadelphia in late April, you can be sure Nate McMillan's squad will be hyper-focused on keeping the Sixers offense in check here. I simply feel we're going to see a much different series than we saw between Philadelphia and Washington, which was high-scoring in nature. Note that the 'under' cashed in two of three regular season meetings between these two teams. The Hawks check in sporting a 26-44 o/u mark when revenging consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 35-16 with the 76ers playing at home after a game that saw 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | 107-115 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Travelling this weekend so my apologies for the somewhat brief analysis for this play. Let’s take a shot with the Bucks here as we go against the narrative that the Nets are invincible after taking care of the Celtics with ease in the opening round. This does promise to be a long, hard-fought series after the Bucks ‘slayed the dragon’ so to speak by taking down last year’s playoff nemesis, the Miami Heat, in an opening round sweep. The Nets have gone with a smaller lineup since dealing rim protector Jarrett Allen and I do think that leaves them vulnerable against a Bucks squad that crashes the boards relentlessly. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The road team has won all five games in this series so far but perhaps that shouldn't come as a big surprise as both teams have proven to be 'road warriors' this season with the Clippers going 23-15 and the Mavs posting a 24-15 record away from home. I look for that trend to continue on Friday as this will be the only first round series that goes the full seven games. Los Angeles actually falls into an excellent situation here having gone 14-2 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 18.5 points (!), after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS over the last two seasons (as is the case here). The Clips are 34-20 ATS after a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.5 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Mavs check in a miserable 6-17 ATS when returning home off a road win over the last two seasons, outscored by a considerable average margin of 6.5 points. The fourth win in a series is generally the toughest one to get (don't tell that to the Suns) and I expect the Mavs to find that out on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 207 | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Game 5 managed to stay 'under' the total mostly due to its noncompetitive nature. The first quarter was actually fairly high-scoring but things got completely out of hand from there with Phoenix cruising to a 30-point victory. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair as the scene shifts back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-1 with the Suns coming off a win by 20 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 237.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Phoenix coming off two or more straight wins this season with those games averaging 225.2 total points. While there are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers, the majority of those trends have resulted in average totals north of the relatively low number we're working with here tonight. Note that Lakers home games have totaled an average of 217.9 points this season. That includes a number of games where they were without both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. While Davis' status for Thursday's game remains in question, I would expect him to play. Even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is down on the Lakers right now. Perhaps rightfully so after an ugly 30-point loss in Game 5 of this series two nights ago. Concerning for the Suns though is the fact that Chris Paul was forced to leave Tuesday's game after aggravating his shoulder injury. Now he'll be forced to play on just one day of rest once again - just as we saw between Games 2 and 3 when the Lakers rolled to a 14-point victory here at home. It was only after two off days that CP3 was able to turn in a stellar performance in last Sunday's key Game 4 victory here in Los Angeles. While Anthony Davis' status remains in question for Los Angeles I would expect him to play in this elimination game, although even if he can't go, I still like the Lakers at a short number here. Even with Lebron and AD in and out of the lineup this season, Los Angeles has still managed to go 23-16 here at home, outscoring the opposition by 3.5 points on average. Better still, the Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 6.7 points as a favorite this season. Considering the Lakers closed as -6.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4 here at home, I believe we're dealing with an overreaction to the last two results in this series. AD's status certainly plays a factor as well but perhaps a little more than it should as the defending champs face elimination on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The road team has won all four games in this series so far and while I'm not sure if that trend will continue on Wednesday, I do think this line will prove too high. I like the fact that there have been two days off between games here as that will have served to give Mavs injured star Luke Doncic a little extra time to get treatment on his neck and heal up heading into this one. Of course, the Mavs have been a better team off a loss as well, particularly on the road where they've gone 26-15 ATS off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points. On 39 occasions where the Clippers have come off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, they've actually been outscored by 0.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.1 points per game after losing two or more games in a row ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation coming up 43 times. Take Dallas (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | 110-126 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Utah at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. Let's try this again, shall we? After cashing the Jazz minus the points in Game 2 we went with the 'under' in both Games 3 and 4, coming up empty as both contests sailed 'over' the total. Here, with the scene shifting back to Utah, I'm looking for a lower-scoring affair. Note that the 'under' has gone 35-19 with the Grizzlies losing three of their last four games ATS over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 216.9 points. We've also seen the 'under' go 31-13 after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.8 points. For the Jazz's part, they've seen the 'under' go 13-4 when playing at home off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 208.2 points with Utah allowing just 97.6 points in that spot. With this being an elimination game - the first in this series - we can expect things to finally tighten up a bit, keeping in mind, the series-opener over a week ago did stay 'under' the number we're working with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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06-02-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1 | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks have been quite simply outclassed in the last two games in this series but if there were ever a time for them to punch back, this would be it as they face elimination on Wednesday night at MSG. The situation sets up well for New York here. Note that Atlanta has gone just 11-22 when heading on the road following a home game over the last two seasons, outscored by 7.5 points on average in the process. Worse still, the Hawks are 18-34 ATS when coming off two or more wins in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks are an incredible 18-2 ATS when at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, as is the case at the time of writing. They're also 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points. After getting blown out in the last two games it's not going to be difficult at all for the Knicks to get up for this one. Take New York (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 207 | 85-115 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns have now posted consecutive 'under' results for the first time since March 26th and 28th but I expect that streak to end at two games with a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. The Lakers will likely be without Anthony Davis for this one, which certainly puts a damper on their offense. However, it also serves to open things up a bit for the Suns offense which is in line for a breakout performance after being held to 100 points or less in three of the first four games in this series and 109 points or less in all four contests. Keep in mind, the Suns average 115.7 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting here at home this season. It certainly looked like Chris Paul's shoulder was feeling much better in Game 4 on Sunday and while just one day between games is a bit of a concern, it's not as if he was overly taxed in Game 4, playing just 31 minutes. Note that the 'over' is 41-25 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 224.4 points. The 'over' is also 33-19 with the Suns coming off a win this season with that situation producing an average total of 224.1 points. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 226 | Top | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as the Nuggets simply couldn't get back up for Game 4 after staging an upset win in Game 3. Here, I look for a return to this series' high-scoring ways as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Blazers coming off an 'under' result this season with those games totaling an average of 235.8 points. We've also seen the 'over' go 17-6 with the Blazers playing on the road off a double-digit win over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 235.1 points. On the flip side, the 'over' has gone 20-9 with the Nuggets coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 229.5 points. With Denver coming off a loss of any kind this season, the 'over' has gone 18-8 with an average total of 228.1 points scored. I look for both teams to come out aggressively in this pivotal Game 5 as they lean on their strengths with the Blazers averaging 116.9 points per game on the road and the Nuggets putting up 117.2 points per game here at home and noting that the 'over' has gone 7-4 in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in the first three meetings in this series but I look for a reversal of that trend on Monday night. After consecutive subpar defensive efforts, the Grizzlies need to step up at that end of the floor here in Game 4. They're certainly capable of doing so, having allowed 110.5 points per game on 45.6% shooting here at home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip. Note that Memphis has allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss at home over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 13-4 along the way. The 'under' is also 13-2 with the Grizzlies playing at home in just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging a total of 216.7 points. Likewise, the Jazz have posted a 26-41 o/u record when playing their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.4 points on average. Donovan Mitchell's return has essentially turned the tide for the Jazz in this series. In what is basically a must-win game for the Grizzlies, look for them to do a better job of limiting his opportunities. Offensively, Memphis is in tough as it has now shot 45% or worse from the field in six of its last seven contests, perhaps showing a bit of a fatigue after going all-out down the stretch to earn a playoff spot. Note that the Grizzlies have scored over 110 points in four straight games entering Monday's contest, their longest such streak since April 14th to 19th. In their next game after that previous four-game streak they managed only 105 points and produced an 'under' result against the Clippers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Suns +7 v. Lakers | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Suns are in tough right now with Chris Paul battling a painful shoulder injury that has rendered him ineffective over the last two games - both losses. However, with an extra day off between games, I would expect CP3 to at the very least contribute more than he did in Game 3, while I also expect the rest of the Suns to step up off back-to-back losses. Note that Phoenix has been an excellent road team this season, going 24-13 while outscoring the opposition by 2.2 points per game. They're in a fine spot here, having gone 23-11 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.4 points on average in that situation. They've also been a tremendous bounce-back team this season, going 21-8 ATS off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 8.7 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in a miserable 4-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by a narrow margin of 2.7 points per game in that situation. We're certainly taking a bit of a chance here as Chris Paul's health remains in serious question. However, at the current number, I believe Phoenix is worth a shot in this critical Game 4 matchup. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point with the 'under' cashing in two of three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however, as the Suns look to punch back at the Lakers off consecutive losses. Note that while Phoenix is an excellent defensive team, it's road games have still averaged nearly 225 total points this season. Likewise, the Lakers rate as one of the league's best defensive squads, but games here at Staples Center have still reached an average total of nearly 219 points. Two regular season meetings between these two teams here totaled 218 and 233 points. The fact that there was two days off between Games 3 and 4 is key for the Suns as they need Chris Paul's shoulder to heal up as he's clearly been off in the last couple of games. He's obviously still not going to be at 100% but I do expect him to contribute more than he did in the last couple of games and it's certainly worth noting that despite his struggles, Game 3 still went 'over' the total and Game 4 fell short by just a handful of points. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 225 points. The 'over' is also 40-26 with the Suns playing consecutive road games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 227.1 points. There are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers but in virtually all of those situations, the average total has gone 'over' the relatively low number we're working with today. Take the over (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 208.5 | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Atlanta at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks haven't had any answers for Hawks superstar Trae Young in this series and that's not likely to change overnight. However, New York can help its own cause by knocking down some shots and that's precisely what I expect to see happen on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. The tandem of Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett was phenomenal during the regular season but they've faded into the wallpaper in this series, most recently combining to shoot 4-for-24 from the field in Game 3. I expect both players to be much better on Sunday afternoon. The Hawks are an underrated defensive team but they've still given up just shy of 109 points per game at home this season. They've held the Knicks to 38.3% and 36.2% shooting over the last two games but that's by no means a sustainable trend. Note that the last time they held the opposition to under 40% shooting in consecutive games, their next game went 'over' the total (that was Game 1 of this series, which reached 212 total points). The only other time they held consecutive opponents under 40% shooting this season, their next game totaled a whopping 238 points at home against the lowly Pistons back on January 20th. Take the over (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 224 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Saturday. |
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05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
NBA First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Saturday. You probably won't find the majority of bettors looking to back the Heat here as they come off consecutive embarrassing performances to dig themselves a virtually insurmountable 0-3 hole in this series. Believe it or not, I think the Heat are set up well to avoid elimination on Saturday afternoon, however. Note that Milwaukee is just 11-24 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season. Better still, the Bucks are 5-16 ATS after posting three or more consecutive victories this season, outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone 13-3 ATS after giving up 105 points or more in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive 7.9 points per game in that spot. The fourth win is generally the toughest in a playoff series and I expect that to hold true here. While the Heat were absolutely crushed in Game 3, at least Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler both managed to post series-high scoring totals. I expect that duo to show some pride and lead the Heat to a strong bounce-back effort here. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole heading to Dallas for Game 3 but I don't expect them to panic. No NBA series is really over (for all intents and purposes) until a team goes down 3-0. Here, the Clips are actually set up well as they've gone 22-10 ATS on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Better still, they're an incredible 13-2 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 19.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Mavs have generally been a better team at home off a loss in recent years, going 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've returned home following a road victory, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that spot. Dallas has now won three straight meetings in this series, noting that it hadn't even managed to take two straight matchups in the previous nine games between these two teams going back to the bubble in Orlando last summer. A quality road team having gone 21-15, outscoring the opposition by 4.3 points on average, I look for the Clippers to come up with an answer in Big D on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers -7 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lakers (and the 'over') in Game 2 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 3 as the scene shifts to Staples Center in Los Angeles. Chris Paul is obviously the engine that runs the Suns offense. Yes, Devin Booker is electric and capable of going off on any given night, but without a healthy CP3, the Suns aren't going anywhere. Paul is nursing a shoulder injury he suffered in the opener of this series and was limited to just 22 ineffective minutes in Game 2. Now with only a day off between games, I'm not sure how much he can give the Suns on Thursday night. There's probably a better chance we see him go full throttle in Game 4 as there will be a two-day layoff between games. Regardless, the Suns are not well-positioned to take control of this series here, noting they've gone just 5-5 over their last 10 road games after starting the season 19-7 away from home. Meanwhile, home court has suddenly meant something to the Lakers as they've reeled off five straight victories here at home, not coincidentally the streak has had a lot to do with them getting healthier down the stretch. We saw the Lakers clamp down on the Suns offense in Game 2. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort offensively but I do think it's coming. Why not on Thursday, in a pivotal Game 3 matchup on their home floor. Note that L.A. checks in 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six home matchups against Phoenix. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | 113-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Miami at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series (but missed with Miami) on Monday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the scene shifts to South Beach for Thursday's Game 3 matchup. With two days off in between games and plenty of familiarity between these two squads (this will be their sixth meeting this season and 12th going back to the bubble in Orlando last year, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair here. The Heat are going to have to step up their game defensively because their offense just isn't there right now. Something doesn't seem right with Jimmy Butler as he's contributed just 27 points on 8-of-32 shooting in the first two games of this series. While he'll undoubtedly bounce back with a strong performance here on Thursday, I'm not sure it will be enough to spark a true offensive outburst from the Heat. It seems as if Miami has become overly reliant on the three-ball, with minimal success. Note that the Heat have proven to be a strong defensive team at home this season, allowing 108.6 points per game on 45.7% shooting. They've given up just 107.4 points per game when coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 217.5 points. While the 'over' has gone 22-10 the last 32 times the Heat have come off a double-digit loss, those games have averaged a total of 221.9 points - still well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. After consecutive games totaling 215 points or more, the Heat have seen an average final score totaling just 216.9 points over the last three seasons, with a considerable sample size of 30 games. The Bucks are certainly a high-flying offensive team, but as we saw in the opener of this series, they're not unstoppable. This is a virtual must-win for the Heat and I expect them to at the very least offer some resistance. Take the under (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the Jazz in Sunday's outright loss in Game 1 against the Grizzlies but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they look to bounce back and even the series at a game apiece. I think Utah was caught a little flat-footed emotionally after Donovan Mitchell was a late scratch in Game 1. All indications leading up to the series-opener were that he would be good to go, but that changed on Sunday afternoon. Now Utah is prepared to move forward without Mitchell, although it does once again sound like he'll likely suit up for Game 2 on Wednesday. Just as they have all season, the Grizzlies exceeded expectations and rode the momentum from their play-in tournament victory to a 112-109 win here in Salt Lake City on Sunday. Note that the Jazz have gone 17-5 ATS when playing consecutive home games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.5 points. They're also a solid 63-41 ATS the last 104 times they've played at home off an outright loss as a home favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, this has been a bit of a tough spot for the Grizzlies defensively, playing on the road after winning four of their last five games as they've given up 120.3 points per game. I expect a big response from the Jazz here, noting that they've gone 31-6 here at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points on average. Take Utah (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Knicks after they played poorly but still took the Hawks right down to the wire in the opener of this series on Sunday. The fantastic duo of R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle combined to knock down just 12 shots and score only 29 points in Game 1, something I look for them to make amends for here in Game 2. Hawks superstar Trae Young got to the free throw line nine times (and knocked down all nine shots) in Game 1 and now continues to get called out for 'flopping'. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Knicks get the benefit of the doubt from the officials a little more here in Game 2. Note that the Hawks are just 5-15 ATS on the road after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks have thrived in similar situations to this all season, going 18-8 ATS as a favorite and and incredible 25-6 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here. Better still, they're 17-2 ATS when at home in the latter situation this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points. Finally, note that the Knicks have taken four of the last six meetings with Atlanta here at home. I don't believe there's any real intimidation factor at play in this one. Now that the Hawks have earned their split in New York, I look for the Knicks to answer back and send the series back to Atlanta knotted at one game apiece. Take New York (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers turned in a rather sleepy defensive performance in the opener of this series on Sunday - perhaps not all that surprising given it was an early start against a Wizards squad they've taken care of with relative ease this season. All told, they allowed the Wiz to shoot better than 55% from the field in the series-opener, something I look for the Sixers to make amends for on Wednesday night. On the flip side, Washington pretty much gave Philadelphia whatever it wanted offensively in that contest and ultimately paid the price in a losing effort. While the Wizards are thought of as a defensive doormat, they've actually proven capable of stepping up at times over the course of the season. Prior to Sunday's game, Washington had held four straight opponents to 46.4% or worse shooting. Even on Sunday, it did hold Philadelphia below 50% shooting. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-18 with the 76ers coming in well-rested playing four games or less in the last 10 days over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 221.4 points. The 'under' is also 34-15 the last 49 times the 76ers have come off a game that totaled 235 points or more, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 127-121 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks took the opener of this series on Saturday but I look for the Clippers to answer back with a convincing victory of their own on Tuesday. Remember, these two teams met in the bubble in Orlando last August as the Clippers prevailed 4-2. In that series, the Clips did a terrific job bouncing back from their two losses, securing victories by eight and 43-point margins (yes, they won the latter contest 154-111). That's pretty much par for the course when it comes to the Clippers as they've been a terrific bounce-back team, having gone 33-19 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.8 points in that situation. Better still, they're 13-4 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.8 points in that spot. Dallas is an excellent team and certainly has a shot at winning this series, as evidenced by its convincing Game 1 victory, however I expect the Mavs to have a tough time matching the Clips intensity here after accomplishing their goal of earning at least a split in Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 216 | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavs did an excellent job of holding down the Clippers in Game 1 of this series on Saturday as they secured a 113-103 victory, just staying a shade 'under' the total. I certainly expect the Clippers to respond with a much better shooting effort here on Tuesday after being held to 11-of-40 shooting from beyond the arc in Game 1. Note that the Clips have averaged 120.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 228.4 total points. We've also seen an average total of 229.3 points with the Clips at home revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last two seasons. Note that these two teams squared off in last year's playoffs in the bubble in Orlando. In that series, which L.A. won 4-2, the Clips came up big offensively off a loss, scoring 130 and 154 points with those two contests totaling 252 and 265 points. Expect another high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 208.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring game (by today's NBA standards) in the opener of this series on Sunday as the Suns cruised to a 99-90 victory. I certainly expect to see the Lakers punch back on Tuesday night but Phoenix isn't going to roll over and has proven to be an incredibly efficient offensive team here at home this season, averaging 116.1 points per game on better than 49% shooting. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Suns coming off two or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 225.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 13-4 with the Suns coming off four or more straight victories over the last two seasons with an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. As for the Lakers, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 49-26 clip the last 75 times they've played on the road off a loss against a division opponent. Look for an answer from Lebron and A.D. off an off day on Sunday but the Suns should do their part to help this one 'over' the total as well. Take the over (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Blazers took the opener of this series, which shouldn't have come as a big surprise as they played exceptionally well down the stretch this season and they've been terrific on the road, going 23-14. Here, I expect the Nuggets to bounce back, however, noting that they've gone 25-12 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of six points, and have taken seven of their last 10 home meetings with Portland. The Blazers have now won consecutive games in this series after the Nuggets had taken the previous two. Note that the Nuggets check in 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when trailing a playoff series, outscoring the opposition by 6.9 points per game. They've also a terrific 13-4 ATS when coming off two more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.8 points. All respect to Portland, it was the better team in Game 1, but now it has accomplished its goal of earning at least a split here in Denver. Look for the Blazers to fall short on Monday. Take Denver (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 98-132 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the Heat in the opener of this series on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Bucks slogan is 'Fear the Deer', there was really nothing to fear for Miami in Game 1 of this series on Saturday. The Heat were right there for four quarters plus overtime and only fell short thanks to an incredible shot by Khris Middleton in the final second of OT. The fact that they were right there should be encouraging as the Heat certainly didn't play their best game - not by a longshot. So many easy shots - within 4-6 feet of the basket - were missed. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo just couldn't buy a basket at times, missing a number of layups that could have easiliy been the difference in the game. I expect them to make amends here on Monday. Note that the Heat remain a winning team on the road this season and they'll certainly want to earn a split here in Milwaukee, knowing just how difficult it would be to come back from a 2-0 deficit, needing four wins in five games - a nearly insurmountable task against a team as good as the Bucks. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 222.5 | 98-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Saturday as the two teams simply didn't knock down their shots in a rather sloppy contest. I'm expecting a sharper offensive effort from both squads here. Watching that game, it was truly incredible how many easy baskets were missed from the 4-6 foot range. When the dust settled, the Bucks shot 43.7% from the field while the Heat checked in at a dreadful 36.4%. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-7 with the Bucks coming off a home win this season with those contests totaling an average of 241.8 points. That's in addition to the fact that the 'over' is 11-3 with the Bucks coming off a straight-up victory but ATS loss, as is the case here, with that situation producing a whopping 244.6 total points on average. Take the over (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. The Grizzlies did well to take down the eight-seed with consecutive wins in the play-in tournament, including Friday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Here, however, I look for them to get a bit of a reality check against the well-rested Jazz. Utah has been positively dominant here at home this season, posting a 31-5 record while outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game. While the Grizzlies were battling it out in a pair of close games against the Spurs and Grizzlies the Jazz were at home resting, and getting healthier with both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley expected to play in Sunday's playoff-opener. Mitchell obviously gives the Jazz a major boost. Even without him, they still put up gawdy offensive numbers, scoring more than 120 points in four of their final seven games down the stretch. While Memphis has been locked in defensively this will undoubtedly be a difficult challenge against a Jazz squad that averages over 117 points per game and shoots better than 47% from the field at home this season. I'm concerned that the Grizzlies offense might not be able to keep pace here considering they check in having shot 44.4% or worse from the field in each of their last four contests. Take Utah (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 226.5 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Milwaukee at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams just met last Saturday with Milwaukee cruising to a 122-108 victory. That game stayed 'under' the total but this time around we're dealing with a considerably lower number. I believe it will prove too low. The Bucks can pretty much put up 120 points per game here at home in their sleep. They check in ranked seventh in the league in floor percentage here at home and third in possessions per game. Milwaukee also ranks third in the NBA in total rebounding percentage here at home - a big advantage over a Heat squad that ranks 19th in rebound rate on the road - which should allow it to push the pace here. I do believe Miami can afford itself some extra scoring opportunities in transition here as well given it ranks seventh in the league in steals per defensive play on the road and Milwaukee sits in the bottom half of the league in turnovers per possession at home. The 'under' cashed in three of five games in last year's playoff series although I would take that with a grain of salt as those contests were played in unique circumstances in the bubble in Orlando. While the 'under' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings this year - all three games actually went 'over' the number we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 222 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen the defense ramp up during the NBA Play-In Tournament and I expect that to continue on Friday night as the Grizzlies face the Warriors for the fourth time this season - this time with a playoff spot hanging in the balance. All three previous matchups have gone 'under' the total. In fact, eight of 10 meetings between these two teams over the last three season have gone 'under'. You would be hard-pressed to find two teams more locked in defensively right now. The Grizzlies have held six of their last seven opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse. On the flip side, however, Memphis has shot 44.4% or worse from the field itself in each of its last three contests. The Warriors have been even better than the Grizzlies defensively, holding 10 of their last 11 opponents to 46.5% shooting or worse. Memphis has seen the 'under' cash in seven of its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is an incredible 13-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 208.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 the last eight times the Warriors have come off a road loss by three points or less, as is the case here, with those contests reaching an average total of just 213.1 points. With everything to play for on Friday night, I'm expecting a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards UNDER 238 | 115-142 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Washington at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Most are expecting a track meet between these two teams on Thursday night and while that could very well turn out to be the case, I still believe the lofty total will prove too high. Keep in mind, the Wizards actually check into this one off four consecutive 'under' results. Scott Brooks actually has his team playing a bit of defense right now as they've held their last two opponents to worse than 40% shooting from the field. Going back further, six of their last seven opponents have shot 48.1% or worse from the field. Meanwhile, the Pacers check in having shot better than 50% in three straight games - their longest such streak of the season. The last time they accomplished that feat was back in late December and their next game cruised 'under' the total, reaching just 218 points. Lost in the Pacers tremendous offensive production has been their defensive play as they check in having held five of their last seven opponents to 45.7% or worse shooting. This has certainly been a high-scoring series with the 'over' cashing in all three previous meetings this season. However, just as we've seen with the 'under' cashing in three of four 'play-in' games so far, things tend to get a little tighter as the stakes get higher. Take the under (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | 96-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. The 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in this series this season but as is often the case, I don't think it's as simple as riding that trend to victory again here on Wednesday. These two teams obviously have a lot to play for here as the loser will be done for the season while the winner will advance to face the winner of the late game between the Warriors and Lakers. San Antonio limps into this contest having lost 10 of its last 12 games overall but I think legendary head coach Gregg Popovich will draw a strong defensive effort out of his down-trodden bunch here. Keep in mind, the Spurs have given up an average of just 106.6 points per game when revenging a loss against an opponent by 20 points or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of 218.7 points, well south of tonight's posted total. The Spurs might be catching the Grizzlies at the right time as Memphis' offense lagged a bit down the stretch, held to 111 points or less in nine of its final 13 games. For whatever reason, the Grizzlies were a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road during the regular season, averaging just 110 points per game here in Memphis, with the 'under' cashing at a 22-14 clip. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-7 in Grizzlies games where the total has been set between 220 and 229.5 this season. The 'under' is also an incredible 12-1 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have been well-rested playing only their second game in the last five days, as is the case here, with those contests totaling an average of 217.1 points. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Wizards v. Celtics -2 | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel this is a short line to back the Celtics here at home as they try to make amends for what has been a very disappointing season and earn their way into the playoffs with a victory here on Tuesday night. Boston does check in sporting a 21-15 home record and will have its full compliment of players back in the lineup, with the exception of Jaylen Brown, after missing a number of key starters in its last couple of regular season games. The Wizards have expended a ton of energy just to get to this point and I can't help but feel there's a bit of an exhale here, knowing they have two chances to advance given this is the 7-8 matchup in the East. Note that the Wiz are just 15-21 on the road this season, just 5-13 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, outscored by an average margin of 5.9 points in that situation this season. They're also just 18-34 ATS on the road following an ATS loss over the last three seasons while Boston checks in 8-1 ATS after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.0 points per game in that spot. The C's have also won four straight meetings against the Wizards here in Boston. Take Boston (9*). |
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05-16-21 | Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers turned in an energetic performance yesterday in Indiana, welcoming back both Lebron James and Anthony Davis and pouring in 122 points in a seven-point victory over the Pacers. We missed with the 'under' in that contest but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Sunday. The Pelicans season essentially ended when they lost Zion Williamson to injury and they check into this one having lost three games in a row, also having shot 46.9% or worse from the field in seven consecutive games. In addition to Zion's absence, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball have missed time as well and are unlikely to play in Sunday's regular season finale. Off consecutive subpar defensive efforts against the Rockets and Pacers, I look for the Lakers to make a concerted effort to clamp down on the Pelicans offense here. Keep in mind, the 'under' is 22-12 with the Lakers on the road this season, where they've held opponents to 45.9% shooting. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-21 | Rockets v. Hawks UNDER 232.5 | 95-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Hawks in their most recent game - a blowout victory over the Magic on Thursday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as Atlanta looks to clamp down on the undermanned, but surging Rockets, and close out the regular season on a positive note. Atlanta is locked in defensively right now, having held its last two opponents to 44.6% and 38.3% shooting. The Hawks have been an underrated defensive team at home all season, in fact, holding the opposition to 45.4% shooting. Here, I don't see much reason for Atlanta to really push the pace, especially against a Rockets squad that has thrived offensively in that sort of environment lately, scoring 120+ points in three consecutive games. In fact, Houston, checks in riding a five-game ATS winning streak, culminating with an outright upset win over the Clippers at home on Friday. Kelly Olynyk has led the charge lately but I look for the Hawks interior defense to put the clamps on him here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-21 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 222.5 | 117-128 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Friday's matchup between these two teams. I actually feel we deserved a better fate in that one as the 76ers did exactly what we expected them to do, holding the Magic to under 40% shooting. Unfortunately, Philadelphia went off offensively in that one and ultimately sent the game just a bucket over the total. Here, we're likely to see a number of Philadelphia's stars sit out but I still expect the Sixers to go hard defensively and keep a weak Magic offense at bay. This is a Doc Rivers-coached team after all. Orlando has been woeful offensively on the road, averaging 102.2 points per game on a miserable 42.2% shooting this season. We have seen the Magic continue to play hard defensively, however, holding five straight opponents to under 49% shooting entering this contest. Despite their 18-16 o/u record away from home, they've actually held the opposition to a respectable 46.1% in the visitors role this season. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in six of the last nine meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-21 | Lakers v. Pacers UNDER 228.5 | 122-115 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Indiana at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. We haven't seen enough of an adjustment made to Pacers totals as they've now seen three of their last six games total 213 points or less. Indiana is injury-ravaged at the moment with lots of question marks around who will be able to play on Saturday afternoon. Regardless, I'm not anticipating a peak performance from the Pacers offense here against a good Lakers defense coming off a rather poor showing against the lowly Rockets last time out. Note that when these two teams last met back in early March, when the Lakers had a healthy Lebron James, we saw just 205 total points in a arrow Los Angeles victory. The Lakers might get some help today with Lebron James, Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder all potentially returning to the floor, but again, I'm not expecting a truly cohesive performance from a team that has been highly-inconsistent down the stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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05-14-21 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 217 | 97-122 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the 76ers 106-94 loss in Miami last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Philadelphia looks to take another step toward locking up the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. The 76ers sit one game ahead of the Nets for top spot in the East with just this two-game home set against the lowly Magic remaining. I look for Philadelphia to clamp down defensively in this game after it allowed Miami to get off to a red hot start and cruise, shooting better than 50% from the field last night. Meanwhile, the 76ers haven't shot better than 48.8% from the field since May 5th in Houston. Note that Philadelphia held Orlando to just 92 points in its first meeting this season back on December 31st. That game totaled just 208 points and the Magic obviously had a lot more scoring punch on their roster at the time. Here, we find the Magic having shot 41.8% or worse from the field in five straight games and riding a three-game 'under' streak following last night's drubbing in Atlanta (we won with the Hawks in that game). Take the under (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 233 | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. This game sets up as a track meet with the Blazers playing the second of back-to-back nights off an upset win in Utah last night and the Suns returning home off a disappointing 0-2 road trip against the Lakers and Warriors. Portland got bogged down a bit offensively against a quality Jazz defense last night but should get plenty of good looks against a struggling Suns defense that checks in fourth-worst in the league in opponents floor percentage over their last three games. The Suns are in a prime bounce-back spot at home, where they average just shy of 117 points per game and shoot 49.5% as a team this season. They've absolutely torched the Blazers in two previous meetings this season, scoring 132 and 127 points. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams here in Phoenix. The 'over' is 20-8 with Portland revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-13-21 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 218.5 | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have inexplicably seen the 'over' cash in each of their last 10 games but I believe that streak will be put in jeopardy as they host the defensive-minded 76ers on Thursday night. The first two meetings in this series this season were both high-scoring games but those came back in the second week of January. The 76ers are in excellent defensive form right now, having allowed just 104.6 points per game on 44% shooting over their last five contests. Note that they've posted a 13-22 o/u record away from home this season. The Heat enter this game having shot better than 50% in each of their last three games and a blazing 57.3% and 59.3% in sweeping consecutive games in Boston in their last two contests. That's certainly not a sustainable trend, noting that the Heat average 107.9 points per game on 46.7% shooting this season. In the long-term picture, the 'under' has gone 97-59 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Magic v. Hawks -13 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hawks managed to wrap up a two-game sweep of the Wizards at home last night although it took a big fourth quarter rally to do so. Atlanta certainly didn't bring its 'A' game, perhaps a product of already having taken care of Washington on two previous occasions this season. The Hawks enter this game having shot better than 50% from the field in five of their last six games and they should absolutely go off against a Magic squad that is simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando has been bullied lately, allowing three of its last four opponents to shoot 48.5% or better while giving up 51 or more rebounds in three straight contests entering tonight's game. Last time out the Magic actually held the Bucks to 42.6% shooting but still lost by 12 points (they did manage to cover the spread). The Magic simply can't match the Hawks depth, as we saw in the most recent meeting, when Atlanta cruised to a 16-point win on April 20th. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This is a brutal spot for the Wizards as they play a second straight game in Atlanta (following an off day yesterday) on the heels of a momentum-killing one-point loss here on Monday (note they outscored the Hawks by 16 points and scored 45 points in the fourth quarter, only to fall one point short). Washington has been battling hard to earn a spot in the NBA Play-in Tournament but how bad do they really want it apart from Russell Westbrook who continues to stuff the statsheet and chase individual records? The Hawks have won eight straight games here at home with the first seven of those victories coming by 12, 16, 15, 7, 11, 9 and 32-point margins prior to Monday's close call. Atlanta is in an excellent spot here having gone 8-1 ATS when playing at home off a home win this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.4 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in allowing a whopping 122 points per game when playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after dropping the previous two meetings this season. The Wizards have been involved in so many tightly-contested games lately - I simply expect them to run out of gas in this spot. Keep in mind, Bradley Beal remains sidelined with a hamstring injury while the Hawks are as healthy as they've been in quite some time after dealing with numerous key injuries over the course of the season. The Hawks are a good defensive team that hasn't played like it over the last couple of games but I look for them to turn in a solid performance in that department here, noting they have held opponents to 45.6% shooting on their home floor this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been defense-optional for the Nets much of the season under the guidance of first-year head coach Steve Nash, particularly on the road where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 47% from the field. Note that opponents are averaging 117 points per game with an average total of 239.2 points with the Nets playing as a road favorite this season. The 'over' has cashed at a 16-7 clip in that situation. On the flip side, the Bulls haven't seen the 'over' cash since April 26th against the Heat. They're healthy though, and I believe they have the personnel to give the Nets a run in what has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair on Tuesdaynight. Even Bulls sophomore Coby White has been contributing consistently at the offensive end of the floor lately, scoring 21 points or more in three of the last four games. With Zach LaVine back and seemingly getting stronger with each passing game (he scored 30 points in Sunday's win in Detroit), there's reason to believe the Bulls can put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Nets scored 125 points despite just 66 field goal attempts in Saturday's 125-119 win in Denver. That result snapped a four-game 'under' streak for Brooklyn, although it's worth noting that two of those four 'under' results would have gone 'over' the number we're dealing with here tonight. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 222 points back on April 4th but the Nets were without Kevin Durant for that contest and Kyrie Irving made good on just 12 field goal attempts for 24 points. Here, I'll note that the Nets are averaging 120.8 points per game with an average total of 239.5 points when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has still cashed in five of the last eight meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans continue to battle to earn their way into the play-in tournament but off a big come-from-behind win in Charlotte last night I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here. Without Zion in the lineup, the Pelicans have been forced to change their identity a little bit and come in off consecutive stellar defensive efforts in his absence. In fact, the 'under' is now 8-1 in the Pelicans last nine games overall. The fact that New Orleans scored 118 and 144 points in two previous wins over the Grizzlies this season should certainly peak Memphis' interest heading into this one. Like New Orleans, Memphis also ramped up its defensive play last time out, holding Toronto to under 39% shooting in a 10-point victory. That was the second time in their last six games the Grizzlies held an opponent to fewer than 100 points - a true accomplishment in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have found themselves in a situation looking for revenge for a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.4 points. While the Pelicans have more serious injury concerns with Zion and Brandon Ingram sidelined, the Grizzlies have issues of their own with underrated scorer Grayson Allen ruled out for Monday's game. It's certainly worth noting that Grizzlies super-soph Ja Morant has been slumping a bit lately as well, scoring 12 points or less in four of his last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Mavs v. Cavs OVER 216.5 | 124-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago in Dallas as the Mavs were in a clear letdown spot one night after outlasting Brooklyn in a nationally-televised matchup. Even with that situation, and the fact that Dallas shot worse than 50% and didn't play at a particularly fast pace against an awful Cavs defense, it still managed to score 110 points. Meanwhile, the Cavs still contributed enough offense to get the final score to 200 points despite turning in two sub-20-point quarters and shooting worse than 39% from the field. While I'm certainly not high on the Cavs offense with Darius Garland sidelined, I do think they can do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total on Sunday night. After holding three straight opponents to 46.4% shooting or worse, some regression should be in order for the Dallas defense in this spot. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Mavs coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 230.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 29-17 with the Cavs coming off at least three straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 223.0 points. The Cavs are in dire straights defensively right now, having allowed six of their last seven opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and and 12 of their last 13 opponents to shoot 48.3% or better. Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors have already crushed the Thunder twice this season including two nights ago as they rolled to a 21-point victory. I don't mind laying all the points with the Warriors here as they check in playing phenomenal defensive basketball having held four straight opponents to 43.3% or worse shooting. They won three of those four games, with all three victories coming by at least 15 points. The Thunder are simply playing out the string at this point and have managed to shoot better than 40.9% just once over their last five contests. While they'll be looking for quick revenge here, no more so than last time out as they were looking to avenge an even more lopsided 147-109 loss at home back on April 14th. The fact is, the Thunder are overmatched against most opponents right now and the Warriors aren't likely to sleepwalk through this one as they continue to fight for playoff positioning in a crowded Western Conference. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 40 of the Warriors last 41 games overall. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take Golden State (10*). |
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