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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 215 | 103-122 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday night. Both teams got off to blazing starts in the opener, and the result was a high-scoring opening quarter. But from there things did settle down and we saw some stretches of sloppy basketball - the type of basketball that has been fairly common in both teams' current playoff runs. I'm not sure we're going to see another peak Lebron effort in Game 2. But on the flip side, I also haven't loved what I've seen from the Warriors, who have looked far more disjointed than in previous playoff campaigns. Keep in mind, these two teams were involved in a game that reached only 191 total points in the regular season so the potential is there for a relatively low-scoring, physical affair. I expect to see that physicality ramp up in the second game of the series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. In last year's Finals opener we saw the lowest scoring game of the series, reaching just 204 total points. In fact, that was the only 'under' result in the series as the next four games flew 'over' the number. I expect a different story to unfold here in the 2018 Finals. The Warriors won't be afforded the luxury of having the Cavs missing over and over again from three-point range the way the Rockets did last round. While the Cavs are likely going to be missing Kevin Love once again, they won't be missing arguably their most important player the way the Rockets were at the end of the Western Finals either. With all of that said, I don't think we'll see the Cavs offer much resistance defensively. The Celtics seemed to bail the Cavs out last round, particularly in Game 7 of that series as they displayed some poor shot selection and couldn't really get into any sort of offensive groove. Here, I'm confident the Warriors will be on the attack for 48 minutes and find plenty of success against a vulnerable Cavs defense. The last time these two teams met in January we saw a closing total of 233.5. We're obviously working with a much different number here and that has everything to do with the Warriors 1-9 o/u record over their last 10 games. That has little bearing in the opener of this series though. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-18 | Cavs +12.5 v. Warriors | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The vast majority of folks seem to think that this series is a foregone conclusion and that the Warriors are going to win in a walk. That was certainly the case last year as the Cavs managed to take only one game from the Warriors. I expect a different story to unfold this year, however, and actually see Cleveland giving Golden State a run. This may be one of the weakest teams Lebron James has ever carried this far in the playoffs, but I feel that only motivates King James more. He took his game to another level in the final two games against the Celtics and I look for some carry-over in the opener of The Finals on Thursday night. The Warriors have posted consecutive ATS wins only twice in these playoffs, reeling off three straight ATS victories just once (that was the first three games of the playoffs against San Antonio). Prior to that, the last time the Warriors won three in a row ATS was way back in February (8th to 12th). Neither of these teams have been good bets this season - when in doubt, grab the points with the underdog. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Rockets | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Warriors in Game 6 of this series on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them in Game 7 on Monday night. As I've mentioned this round, the SU winner has done a tremendous job of also covering the spread here in the Conference Finals, including a perfect 6-0 ATS mark in this series (perfect 13-0 ATS overall this round). That's a trend I see continuing here. The Rockets seemed to peak in Game 5 of this series, at least from an emotional standpoint. They didn't have it on Saturday night in Oakland, at least from the second quarter on, and now I'm just not sure they truly believe they can beat the three-time defending Western Conference champions in a winner-take-all affair. Golden State couldn't have played any worse than it did the last time it played on this floor in Game 5. We saw the Warriors finally wake up after a dreadful first quarter in Game 6 and I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 208.5 | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Houston at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We saw a very low-scoring game between the Cavs and Celtics last night (we won with the 'under') and while I don't expect that type of slugfest here in Game 7 of the Western Finals, I am confident this contest will stay 'under' the posted total. We've seen the totals drop drastically over the course of this series, but it's been warranted in my opinion. Even in Game 6, when the two teams took turns going on monster runs, the game still stayed comfortably 'under' the number. I certainly expect some pushback from the Rockets here after they were run out of the gym on Saturday night. But I'm not convinced Houston's offense can figure things out, clearly mired in a major shooting slump, particularly from beyond the arc, in this series. Whether Chris Paul is able to play or not, I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams who are obviously extremely familiar with one another at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 200 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in Game 7 between the Cavs and Celtics on Sunday night. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has gone 3-0 in three games in Boston in this series while the 'over' has cashed in two of three games in Cleveland. The Cavs actually took a step back in Game 6, putting up 109 points after scoring 116 and 111 points in Games 3 and 4 in Cleveland. Lebron James turned in one of the biggest performances of his career in Game 6 but he'll have a tough time replicating that feat in Boston, where the Celtics have done a good job defending him in this series. While the Celtics have enjoyed plenty of success in this series, particularly at home, this is still a young team hosting a squad of seasoned veterans with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line - I do think we'll see them display some nerves, at least early in this contest. This is the lowest total we've seen in this series so far, but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. It seems as though the Celtics have won over the betting public as folks are lining up to back the C's at home in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday night. While we've won with the Celtics at home twice in this series I won't hesitate to switch sides here in Game 7 as I feel the value has swung in the Cavs favor after Lebron James' incredible performance in Game 6 on Friday. Even if the Cavs are without Kevin Love for this one, I still expect them to put forth a much better showing than we've seen in their first three games here in Boston. There's no question the Celtics are an emerging team in the East, they've more than proved that during this playoff run. I'm just not sure their time has come just yet. It's not often we see the home team run the table in the NBA Conference Finals, and I don't see it happening here either. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors couldn't have played much worse in Game 5 of this series on Thursday night, as the Rockets rode a wave of emotion to a narrow three-point win. The fact that Golden State was in that game right until the end was telling in my opinion. I expect to see a much sharper performance from the Warriors on Saturday. While we're being asked to lay a steep price for sure, I do believe it's warranted, especially considering the Rockets will be without Chris Paul after he re-aggravated a hamstring injury in Game 5. Despite being up 3-2 in this series you have to think Houston is feeling a sense of doubt as it heads to Oakland - not a good feeling when you're looking to close out the defending champs. It's worth noting that the after the Cavs win and cover last night, the SU winner has now gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in this round. I certainly don't expect the Warriors to go down without a fight and feel confident they'll force a Game 7 in Houston. Look for that SU/ATS combo trend to continue here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Boston at 8:35 pm et on Friday. There's been a pretty strong trend when it comes to Lebron James-led teams in the playoffs over the years, that being the SU winner more often than not covers the spread as well, no matter the pointspread range. We saw that trend break early in these playoffs but lately it has come back strong, with the SU winner going 8-1 ATS in the Cavs last nine games overall. I don't expect the Cavs to lose this series on their home floor on Friday night. We won with the Celtics on Wednesday in a game that was never really close. But the Celtics have yet to sniff out a victory here in Cleveland and don't expect anything to change on Friday night. Look for Lebron James to turn in his best performance of the series as the Cavs force a seventh and deciding game. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | 94-98 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State over Houston at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. I don't think there's any panic at all in the Warriors as they head back to Houston with this series all knotted at two games apiece. Golden State was completely outplayed in two of four quarters in Game 4, ultimately falling by three points. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant combined to shoot 19-of-50 in the loss. Needless to say, I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from that duo, especially if Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala can't go on Thursday night. The Rockets can't play much better than they did on Tuesday, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. I fully expect Warriors head coach Steve Kerr to make the necessary gameplan adjustments while the Warriors stars execute. Golden State knows it can win on this floor, having come away victorious in the series opener here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. This has been the classic homer series so far and I don't see that trend reversing on Wednesday night in Boston. Everyone is quick to write off the Celtics after back-to-back losses in Cleveland, just as they were quick to write off the Cavs following the first two games in Boston. There are those suddenly questioning Celtics head coach Brad Stevens' decisions and his ability to make the necessary adjustments against Lebron James and company. I'm not buying into any of it. The Celtics have been a completely different team on their home floor in these playoffs, and really all season long. Boston is an impressive 36-14 SU at home this season while the Cavs are just a .500 team on the road. I like the fact that the Celtics didn't fold the tent after a miserable first quarter on Monday in Cleveland, outscoring the Cavs in each of the next three quarters in an eventual nine-point loss. I don't believe they'll be intimidated or crumble under the pressure in Game 5. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +8.5 v. Warriors | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Rockets in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night in Oakland. Houston put forth a miserable effort in Game 3, unable to build on what was certainly a strong performance in a blowout win in Game 2. Now it's up to the Rockets to come up with some answers and I do expect them to show up. Whether that leads to an outright win remains to be seen, but I do think the Rockets are going to stay inside the lofty pointspread here, noting that the Warriors remain a losing bet on the season at 41-53-1 ATS. Stay aware of the status of Andre Iguodala for the Warriors as he may be forced to miss Tuesday's game due to injury, which would obviously be a key absence. I'll make this play on the Rockets assuming he's good to go, however. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 207 | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' on Monday as we're starting to see a real 'under' trend build for both teams. Obviously the first three games of this series have now gone 'under' and so have five of the Celtics last six games overall and four of the Cavs last five. Five of six meetings between these two games have stayed 'under' the total this season. All three games in this series have been decided by double-digit margins. Game 2 was the most competitive but even that contest couldn't get 'over' the total thanks to fourth quarter scoring lapses from both teams. This is clearly a pivotal game in this series as we'll see what kind of fight the Celtics show after getting their first taste of adversity. I'm expecting gritty performances from both teams. Take the under (10*). |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. I certainly don't see the Rockets backing down as this series shifts to Oakland for Game 3 on Sunday night. With that being said, I also look for the Warriors to force the issue here, and perform much better than they did in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday night. Note that the lone regular season meeting here at Oracle Arena resulted in a 122-121 Rockets victory on the opening night of the regular season. We're dealing with the highest total in this playoff series so far, but I believe the number can and will go even higher as the series progresses. There will be spots to play the 'under' but this isn't one of them in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Cavs | 86-116 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. While the Cavs are certainly capable of getting back in this series and holding serve on their home court, I don't expect to see the Celtics back down, even with a 2-0 lead in their back pocket. The Cavs, even when at their best, have had a tendency to let teams hang around, or even creep back in late in the game - particularly at home - and I expect a similar story to unfold on Saturday night in Cleveland. Both teams had an extremely tough time making shots in the fourth quarter in Game 2 on Tuesday. Boston gave Cleveland every opportunity to get back in the game but the Cavs essentially stood around watching Lebron try to do it all (when they weren't doing that they were hoisting up ill-advised threes). Still, Cleveland couldn't take advantage. The Cavs are being given a lot of respect by the oddsmakers here, and perhaps rightfully so given their pedigree. I'm just not sure they'll have an easy time winning by margin. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 205 | 86-116 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in Game 2 of this series on Tuesday night as neither team could find any offensive consistency in the fourth quarter, ultimately ruining what looked like an easy, rocking chair winner after three quarters. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the series shifts to Cleveland, however. I fully expect to see the Celtics to continue to attack, albeit with some wiser shot selection than we saw in the fourth quarter in Game 2. The Cavs could have easily gotten back into that game were it not for some dreadful fourth quarter shooting and shot selection of their own on that night. Look for them to do a much better job of getting to the basket and forcing the issue rather than hoisting up desperation three-pointers the way they did late in Game 2. The Cavs will also need to stop standing around and watching Lebron James. I don't see that being as much of an issue here at home in Game 3. Regardless whether this is a tight game or a lopsided affair, I believe we'll see plenty of scoring all the way through. Take the over (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | 105-127 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Houston at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' in Houston on Wednesday night as the Rockets try to even things up with the Warriors in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. The Rockets can play a lot better defensively than they did in Game 1 on Monday night. Houston simply had no answers for the Warriors offense, particularly in the second half as Kevin Durant paced the charge with 37 points. Meanwhile, the Warriors did just about as good as you could expect as far as containing the Rockets goes, giving up 41 points to James Harden but holding the team to just under 46% shooting and 13 made threes. I'm really not sure how many adjustments Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni can make heading into this one. The Warriors are a better defensive team than most give them credit for, noting that they've held the opposition to 44.5% shooting this season. While Golden State is more than capable of prevailing in a track meet with Houston, I'm not sure it is all that eager to get involved in such a contest with a 1-0 series lead in its back pocket. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm going to add the Rockets to my ticket on Wednesday night. It's amazing how perspectives change after just one game in a series. Leading up to this one, most expected a long, hard-fought series between arguably the two best teams in the NBA. After the Warriors prevailed in Game 1, a lot of folks are calling for a sweep. I don't expect it to be that easy for Golden State. Houston didn't bring its 'A' game on Monday night. There's no question about that. Of course, neither did the Warriors. With that being said, I do expect the Rockets to lay it all on the line in Game 2 on Wednesday, with a long layoff coming before the series resumes in Oakland on Sunday night. I don't believe the Rockets confidence was shaken by that double-digit loss in Game 1. They need to use home court to their advantage to make this a series. Look for them to do just that on Wednesday. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Cleveland and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavs were essentially run out of the building in Game 1 of this series in Boston on Sunday afternoon (we won with the Celtics), scoring only 35 first half points en route to a 108-83 beatdown at the hands of the Celtics. While I’m not sure the Cavs make the complete turnaround and win Game 2, I am confident we’ll see them put forth a much stronger offensive showing. Lebron James certainly said all of the right things after that Game 1 blowout and I believed much of what he said in that he’s not one bit concerned by one loss. Look for a big game out of Lebron on Tuesday night as he takes advantage of what I consider an average Celtics defense. On the flip side, Boston continues to impress, getting offensive contributions from everywhere on the floor. Despite getting only 17 points combined from Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart, the C’s still managed to easily eclipse the 100-point mark on Sunday. There’s little reason to expect much of a letdown here. Brad Stevens continues to prove himself as one of the league’s best coaches and I’m confident he’ll make a few adjustments to keep the offense flowing on Tuesday night. We’re dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in the series opener, but I believe it’s the wrong move. Expect a competitive, relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | 119-106 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Monday. Home court means something in the NBA Playoffs, especially in the latter stages - that's an understatement. The Rockets have certainly been dominant here at home this season, going 39-8 SU. We saw them take their game to another level against the Jazz last round. Save for a complete letdown in Game 2, they were the vastly superior team, toying with the Jazz at times. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge and while I'm not about to predict the Rockets to win the series, I do believe they'll play with a real sense of urgency on Monday night, perhaps a little moreso than the Warriors who have been here before. The Rockets took two of three meetings in this series during the regular season, most recently prevailing by a 116-108 score here at home back in January. In that game, the guy I believe will be the x-factor in Monday's contest, Eric Gordon of the Rockets connected on just 2-of-14 shots, and went 0-for-9 from beyond the arc in a six-point performance. I look for much better things out of the super sixth man on Monday night. We've heard so much about the 'Hamptons Five' leading up to this series. For at least one game, I look for the duo of Harden and Paul to one-up that unit. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Cleveland at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cavs haven't been a great road team by any means this season, going 24-22 SU. They did sweep both games in Toronto last round, but I expect them to face a lot more resistance against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston has been playing with house money for much of the season, really since losing Gordon Hayward and then Kyrie Irving. This is very much a team that has played with a 'nothing to lose' mentality in the playoffs, and it has certainly served them well. Note that Boston is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home in the postseason. The C's will certainly be up for this matchup. They held their own against the Cavaliers during the regular season, going 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS. With that being said, a 121-99 home loss to the Cavs suffered back in February won't be far from their minds. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | 112-114 | Win | 102 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Philadelphia at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the 76ers delivering a convincing win in Game 4 of this series in Philadelphia, most bettors are lining up to back the Celtics here as the series shifts back to Boston. While I'm not a big fan of being on the same side as the betting majority, it doesn't mean they're always wrong. In this case, I do believe they have it right. The Celtics have been terrific at home this season, going 33-14 SU. We saw just how much they feed off the home crowd back in Game 2 of this series after they fell behind big early in the game only to rally and win. Boston certainly doesn't want to give Philadelphia any more life than it already has. I'm confident we'll see Celtics head coach Brad Stevens make the necessary adjustments. We certainly didn't see Boston put forth its best effort in its first shot at eliminating the Sixers but the Celts make up for it here. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226.5 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Pelicans quite simply couldn't knock down their shots in Game 4 of this series and the Warriors rolled to an easy victory as a result (we won with Golden State and the 'under'). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in this elimination game on Tuesday night. There's reason for the Pelicans to be confident heading into this one as they've scored at least 115 points in five of eight meetings between these two teams this season. The Warriors came out with the right level of intensity in Game 4 on Sunday, but that was coming off a 19-point drubbing just two nights earlier. Here, I'm not sure they manhandle the Pelicans right out of the gate in quite the same way. On the flip side, there's little reason to think that New Orleans can slow an offensive juggernaut like the Warriors on the road. Golden State has scored 120, 123 and 121 points in its last three home games against the Pelicans. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 214 | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Monday. The Raptors gave the Cavs their best shot on Saturday, or at least they didn't quit, battling back in the fourth quarter before falling on another Lebron James buzzer-beater. For much of Saturday's game the Raptors couldn't get anything going offensively. DeMar DeRozan was a non-factor and while he should play better on Monday night, I'm still not sure it's enough for the Raptors to hang around and inflict a great deal of damage offensively. The Cavs were on top of their game offensively in Game 3 and pretty much have been since the opening tip of this series. But again, I'm not sure they need to turn in an explosive offensively performance in this one. It's a win and move on situation and I look for the Cavs to put forth a clean effort. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. 76ers | 92-103 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Monday. Maybe the Celtics come out flat and get their doors blown off on Monday night but I see this one playing out differently. Boston has a chance to put away the 76ers and get some much-needed rest before an anticipated showdown with the Cavs and I look for it to take full advantage. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens has coached circles around 76ers boss Brett Brown. The 76ers seem to be having a tough time figuring things out with Joel Embiid back in the lineup and have looked nothing like the poised squad that disposed of the Heat in round one of the playoffs. Now with their backs against the wall I have no doubt that the 76ers will show up, but I simply believe they're laying too many points in this matchup. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Rockets -5 v. Jazz | 100-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Rockets in Game 3 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Houston in Game 4 on Sunday night in Salt Lake City. I can't help but think that the Jazz's victory in Game 2 in Houston had more to do with the Rockets not bringing the proper level of compete than it did anything Utah was able to do gameplan-wise. The Rockets came out with a lot more intensity in Game 3 and blew the doors off the Jazz with only a late run making things look a little more respectable than it actually was. The common line of thinking is that the Jazz will make the necessary adjustments and get back in this series on Sunday, but I'm not so sure. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Warriors -6 v. Pelicans | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over New Orleans at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Pelicans shot the lights out on their way to a Game 3 victory on Friday night. I look for the Warriors to answer back with a better defensive performance on Sunday, while also shooting better themselves after knocking down less than 40% of their shots last time out. We're being asked to lay a considerable price here, but we're backing the superior squad in a strong motivational spot. Expect a quality road game from the defending champs on their way to a win and cover. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-06-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 231 | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and New Orleans at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in four of the Pelicans last five games overall but only two of those contests went 'over' the number we're working with this afternoon. I expect to see the Warriors do a much better job defending the perimeter after allowing the Pelicans to knock down 14-of-31 shots from beyond the arc on Friday. On the flip side, it's essentially another must-win situation for New Orleans and I'm confident we will see them keep the Warriors offense in check for stretches in this one, even if they're not able to stay within arm's length for 48 minutes. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 216 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Toronto and Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We didn’t see a great deal of defense from either team in the first two games of this series, although Game 1 was poised to go ‘under’ the total before chances of that were ruined by overtime (we had the ‘under’ in that game). This is it for the Raptors. They desperately need a win on Saturday night as they’re not going to dig themselves out of an 0-3 hole against Lebron and co. With that being said, I do expect to see more pushback from the Raps defensively here. A lot of the shots the Cavs knocked down as they pulled away from the Raps on Thursday came with a high degree of difficulty. Don’t count on them making all of those shots again on Saturday. Cleveland will undoubtedly get a boost from playing back at home, but that should help them defensively as well. Nothing will come easy for the Raps as they try to claw their way back into the series and that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +4.5 v. Cavs | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Cleveland at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors came unglued over the course of Game 2 of this series on Thursday, after falling in an opener that truly could have gone either way two nights earlier. While I don’t believe the Raps can actually win this series, I do think we’ll see them make things at least a little bit interesting with their most complete effort of the series on Saturday night. Yes, Lebron clearly has Toronto’s number but there’s no question that’s been factored into this line. The betting public will be quick to jump all over the Cavs as they return home with a 2-0 stranglehold on this series but I believe we’re getting solid value with the Raps in an underdog role, carrying a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality on Saturday night. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 206.5 | 101-98 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Boston and Philadelphia at 5 pm et on Saturday. The first two games of this series have gone ‘over’ the total and that’s been the norm in all four second round playoff series’ so far. I expect to see a bit of a shift on Saturday, however, as this series moves to Philadelphia for Game 3. The 76ers are down 2-0 in the series but they’re not about to throw in the towel. A wise man once said a series doesn’t truly begin until the home team loses (or something to that effect). Here, I look for a determined effort from the 76ers as they do a much better job of defending the perimeter and preventing all of those easy Celtics looks that we saw in the first two games of the series. On the flip side, I think what you see is what you get from the 76ers offense. Ben Simmons is likely to play better, but I do still believe they’re in tough against a scrappy Celtics defense. Boston will continue to pester Philadelphia’s go-to guys and keep the score within reason in this matchup. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 10:30 pm et on Friday. The Rockets got off to a miserable start in Game 2 on Wednesday night, showing very little life and very much looking like a team that thought it would be able to sleepwalk its way to a series sweep. The Jazz pushed back and despite relaxing a bit and letting the Rockets back in the game in the third quarter, ultimately pulled away for a decisive victory to even the series at one game apiece. Now the series shifts to Salt Lake City and I expect the Rockets to come out with a lot more fire, and certainly put forth a more inspired effort. I can’t help but think this line would have been a little higher had Houston rolled to another victory in Game 2. Instead we’re looking at a short number to back what will undoubtedly be a highly-motivated Rockets squad that has shifted its attention back to the Jazz following the Game 2 wake-up call. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-03-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +4 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics continue to get no respect from the betting marketplace as they once again find themselves in the underdog role on Thursday night. I can't help but feel that's just the way they like it. The home team has gone a perfect 8-0 SU in all Celtics game in these playoffs and I see that trend continuing here. The 76ers have enjoyed a tremendous season, not just SU but ATS as well. With that being said I didn't have them advancing past the Celtics at the onset of this series. Their time will come - just not sure this is the year. Boston is brimming with confidence right now and while most expect Philadelphia to bounce back, I believe the 76ers will have a tough time winning, let alone covering the spread. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-02-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -11 | 116-108 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I believe it's highly unlikely that the Jazz are going to hold the Rockets to 110 points again on Wednesday night. I'm also not convinced that Utah can improve much offensively. Expect another lopsided result in favor of the Rockets in Game 2. Of course, Houston has had Utah's number this season, going a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. The Rockets were able to shift into cruise control in the opener of this series on Sunday. While they can expect to get more of a challenge from the Jazz, I believe it's only a matter of time before Houston once again pulls away. The Jazz have exceeded most expectations reaching the second round of the playoffs. But that's as far as they go. Take Houston (10*). |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 215 | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Toronto at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Despite Indiana pushing the pace for much of the series, we still saw the 'under' cash in five of the Cavs seven games in the opening round. The 'over' came through in the final two games of that series, only after the oddsmakers made considerable adjustments to the total. Here in Game 1 of this much anticipated showdown between the Cavs and Raptors I don't expect Lebron James to find the going nearly as easy as it was in Game 7 against the Pacers. Despite dealing with muscle cramps, Lebron still managed to have his way with Indiana but will face a significant challenge against the Raptors on Tuesday. On the flip side, the Raptors are likely to face more resistance than they saw against the Wizards. Save for Games 3 and 4 in Washington, when Toronto simply didn't bring its 'A' game, the Raptors were able to cruise past the Wizards, scoring at will at times. We've seen some high-scoring affairs between the Raps and Cavs this season but I expect to see a different type of contest play out in the series opener. Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Just feels like the wrong team is favored in this matchup, largely due to the circumstances by which the two teams got this point. The 76ers rolled past the Heat, facing little resistance along the way. Meanwhile, the Celtics were pushed to the limit by the Bucks, needing a big second half effort in Game 7 at home on Saturday night to advance. This has the makings of another long series and I certainly expect to see the 76ers hang tough in games played here in Beantown. With that being said, I don't believe the Celtics are getting any respect at all with this pointspread in the opener. Boston has faced a ton of adversity this season and so it should be comfortable entering this series as the underdog. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5.5 | 101-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Indiana at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Despite the fact that the Pacers have looked like the better team for much of this series, I have no problem with laying the points with the Cavs on Sunday afternoon. It comes as a surprise to most that we're seeing a seventh and deciding game in this series. Most thought the Cavs would roll past the Pacers but that has been far from the case. Keep in mind, Cleveland checked in as seven and eight-point favorites in the first two games in this series. Now we've seen the line drop to a more reasonable number, but in a must-win situation, I expect the Cavs will come to play. We won with the Pacers on Friday night, as that spot certainly favored the home team with their backs against the wall. Maybe the Cavs don't deserve to win this series, but I'm confident that Lebron James will have his squad ready. We're being asked to lay a reasonable number with what I still feel is the superior team. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 6 of this series on Thursday night as they ultimately pulled away for a convincing win, sending the series back to Boston for a seventh and deciding game on Saturday. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Celtics in this one, however, as it's now Brad Stevens turn to make the necessary adjustments and Boston's opportunity to defend its home floor, as it has throughout this series, and advance to the second round. Home court advantage is of course what the Celtics fought for all season, and it has certainly paid off in this series, with the home side winning all six contests. I think the fact that things have tightened up considerably does favor the Celtics here. We saw the Bucks struggle to score in Game 5 in Boston, managing only 87 points and I expect to see a similar story unfold here. Even in Game 6, it took a huge effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo with 31 points and 14 rebounds to secure a Bucks victory. In that must-win situation for Milwaukee, Boston showed plenty of fight, pulling with a bucket with just over seven minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Bucks ultimately had the greater will to win and prevailed, but here I believe we'll see that role belong to the Celtics. Expect Boston to bring its best effort of the series on Saturday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Friday. There's no reason for the Pacers to wave the white flag after dropping a tough one on Lebron James' last second heroics in Game 5. Indiana has been an excellent home team all season long, and even when the Pacers didn't bring their 'A' game back in Game 4 at home, they still only lost by four points. Look for the Pacers to make a last stand so to speak and force a seventh and deciding game in Cleveland where really anything can happen. Indiana has been right there with the heavily favored Cavs throughout this series and nothing changes on Friday night. Take Indiana (10*). |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics took back control of this series and pushed the Bucks to the brink of elimination with a 92-87 victory in Game 5 of this series but I look for Milwaukee to answer back on its home floor on Thursday night. Celtics coach Brad Stevens made all the right moves last game, including inserting rookie Semi Ojeleye into the starting lineup to help defensively against Giannis Antetokounmpo. Of course, the return of Marcus Smart also gave the Celtics a big lift in a game they needed to win. With that being said, the margin of victory was still just five points. The home team has won all five games in this series so far, and while a few of those could have gone either way, each team has also recorded a blowout win on its home floor. While I'm not certain we'll see a blowout here, I do believe we'll see the Bucks make the necessary adjustments and force a seventh and deciding game in Boston. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Utah at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz will be looking to close out the Thunder in what would be a surprising result to most. I'm not convinced the Thunder can get all the way back in this series, but I do expect them to take a stand on their home floor on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, the Jazz are just 21-22 on the road this season while Oklahoma City has a decided home court edge having gone 28-15 here at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Russell Westbrook talked a good game following Game 3 of this series but wasn't able to follow it up with his performance on the floor in Game 4. Look for him to make amends as he helps guide the Thunder to a win and cover on Wednesday. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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04-24-18 | Heat v. 76ers -10 | 91-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat put up a good fight at home in Game 4 of this series but now that they're down 3-1, I don't see them making a big final stand in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. The Heat have actually shown a tendency to fold the tent in this series, losing a pair of games by 27 and 20 points. The 76ers have certainly been a force at home this season, going 31-11 SU while outscoring the opposition by right around nine points per contest. Meanwhile, the Heat are six games under .500 on the road and simply don't score enough to keep up with what will surely be a highly-motivated 76ers squad on Tuesday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Wolves | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Rockets were set back on their heels in Game 3 of this series on Saturday night as the T'Wolves ran them out of the building in a 121-105 victory. I believe the shoe will be on the other foot on Monday, however, as Houston aims to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. Note that the Rockets had won eight straight meetings in this series prior to Saturday's contest. The T'Wolves have gone 2-1 ATS in this playoff series so far to snap a four-game ATS winning streak by the Rockets. Houston didn't bring the proper levels of focus and intensity to Saturday's game, but it will here. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Indiana at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cavs may be down in this series but I'm not about to count out a Lebron James-led team, certainly not in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. The Cavs by no means played their best game on Friday night, but they were still right there, losing by only a basket. While the pressure should rest squarely on the Cavs shoulders heading into this one, I actually believe it might be the Pacers that come out a little tight now that they've regained the series lead. It's not a must-win situation for Cleveland but it certainly can't afford to give the Pacers any more confidence at this stage of the series. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 215 | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 2:35 pm et on Saturday. We've seen three consecutive high-scoring affairs to open this series but I'm looking for the defenses to settle in a little bit on Saturday afternoon in Miami. The 76ers welcomed Joel Embiid back to the lineup in Game 3 and didn't miss a beat, putting up 128 points in a victory. I do believe we may see a misstep from the 76ers in this matchup on Saturday, however, as the Heat will certainly bring more intensity than we saw on Thursday. Note that the two regular season meetings here in Miami totaled only 203 and 207 points. Take the under (10*). |
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