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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-05-22 | Thunder v. Kings OVER 216.5 | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the Thunder's 96-93 win in Portland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. The pace was there but neither the Thunder or Blazers shot well in last night's game. In fact, both teams shot sub-40% from the field. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. The Thunder are going to need to perform better offensively if they want to secure a third straight win as the Kings have scored 112 and 114 points over their last two games, most recently shooting north of 52% in a tough road game at Golden State on Thursday (we won with the 'over' in that game). On the flip side, the Kings have allowed at least 103 points in 18 consecutive games. Even with the Thunder's flaws offensively (noting they're without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander), they should benefit from facing a Sacramento squad that allows just under 112 points per game at home this season. Considering Kings home games have averaged 221.6 total points this season and four meetings between these two teams here since the start of 2020 have totalled 220, 224, 228 and 228 points, I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-22 | Sacred Heart v. St Francis NY OVER 142.5 | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacred Heart and St. Francis (NY) at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a rematch of a game between these two teams on January 27th. St. Francis took that meeting by a 71-66 score in a game that stayed 'under' the closing total. As a result we're dealing with a slightly lower total here, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. That game was played at a relatively slow pace with both teams hoisting up sub-60 field goal attempts and a combined 26 trips to the free throw line. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Sacred Heart hasn't had a hope of slowing down opponents on the road, particularly of late. It has yielded 62, 69, 63 and 65 field goal attempts in four road games since New Year's Eve and while St. Francis (NY) doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, it does play considerably faster at home and I expect it to be afforded plenty of good looks in this one. Note that opponents are shooting a ridiculous 49.3% against Sacred Heart in its road games this season, where it allows just shy of 80 points per game. I do think that Sacred Heart can stay competitive in this one, however. It shot a miserable 5-of-16 from beyond the arc in that first meeting this season but that could be considered an anomaly as the Pioneers average nine made threes per game on the season, with that average holding steady on the road. Noting that St. Francis sends opponents to the free throw line 19 times per game on average, I would also anticipate Sacred Heart improving on its 10 free throw attempts in the first matchup. When these two teams last played on this floor last February they combined to score 170 points in a wild 88-82 Sacred Heart victory. That was the back half of a two-game set with the front-end resulting in 164 total points. Noting that both teams bring plenty of returning experience to the table, I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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02-04-22 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 214 | Top | 96-93 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Monday night in Oklahoma City with the Thunder rolling to a 98-81 victory - one of the lowest-scoring games for both teams this season. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday night in Portland, however. Oklahoma City continues to play on without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander among others, but it does bring some confidence to the table off consecutive wins over the Blazers and Mavs. While the Thunder did hold Portland to just 81 points earlier this week, they've proven to be a considerably weaker defensive team on the road, where they allow 2.3 points per game above their season average and have had no luck controlling tempo, allowing opponents to get off an average of 93 field goal attempts per game away from home. In Monday's matchup, Portland knocked down just 7-of-38 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line only eight times. Perhaps that sleepy performance shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was playing the second of back-to-backs after a wild 130-116 loss in Chicago the night previous. A return home should help the Blazers cause, noting they average 3.5 points per game above their season average and make good on an average of 15 threes while getting to the free throw line 23 times per contest. Those are far more encouraging numbers than what we saw in OKC on Monday. The Thunder are undermanned right now but I'm confident guys like Lu Dort, Tre Mann and Josh Giddey can continue to pick up the slack. While the Blazers have held consecutive opponents under 100 points, that could be chalked up as an anomaly as they had given up over 100 points in 10 of their previous 11 games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 18-5 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average of 233.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Portland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 231.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-04-22 | Princeton v. Cornell OVER 157.5 | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
CBB Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Princeton and Cornell at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season stayed comfortably 'under' the total as Princeton prevailed by a 72-70 score at home. There were some notable takeaways from that game. Cornell got all the looks it wanted but simply couldn't knock down enough shots, noting that it shot 43% from the field on 62 attempts. It's worth mentioning that the Big Red were playing their second game in as many days on that occasion. Here, we'll see a rested Big Red bunch having not played since last Sunday (in typical Ivy League scheduling). As further illustration to how many points Cornell left on the table in that first meeting, it made just 9-of-26 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line an uncharacteristically-low nine times (but did make nine of those freebies). The Big Red check in an impressive seventh in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will certainly look to dictate the pace against a very beatable Princeton defense here. On the flip side, the Tigers should be more than happy to be along for the ride in a potential track meet, noting that they've scored 70+ points in 13 consecutive games. This isn't the same fundamentally-sound Princeton defense we've been accustomed to seeing, however, as it has allowed 80, 76, 81, 73 and 80 points in five road games this season. The fact that the Tigers baited a slow Dartmouth squad (334th in adjusted tempo) into a game that totalled 164 points in their most recent road game is telling. Princeton is more than capable of shooting the lights out and I suspect it will be even more set on pushing the pace after Cornell was seemingly the more aggressive offensive side in the last meeting. It's worth noting that the Tigers were without sharp-shooter Jaelin Llewellyn in the first meeting, which certainly hampered their offense. He knocked down six threes in Princeton's most recent game - an 80-74 loss to Yale last Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | Kings v. Warriors OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors are absolutely rolling offensively right now. Even last time out, in a game in which they sat Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, they still managed to post a 30+ point fourth quarter in a stunning 124-120 win over a full strength Spurs squad (we unfortunately lost with San Antonio +2.5 after playing it before the news of Curry and Wiggins' absence came out). Here, there's little reason to expect anything other than an offensive onslaught against a Kings squad playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in four nights, in three different cities. Note that the Kings have allowed over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. They did manage to upset the Nets at home last night, however, and should carry some confidence into this one as a result. For their part, the Warriors have scored 130, 124, 110, 122 and 124 points over their lats five games, clearly benefiting from Klay Thompson shaking off the rust, and the re-emergence of Andrew Wiggins as a go-to scorer. On the flip side, Golden State has now given up over 100 points in four straight games. This will be a rematch of a mid-December meeting between these two teams that went the way of the Warriors 113-98. Note that the 'over' is 36-23 with the Kings seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 234.1 points. The 'over' is also 33-18 with the Kings coming off six or seven losses in their last eight games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 231.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | UCLA v. Arizona OVER 146.5 | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Arizona at 8 pm et on Thursday. We saw a closing total north of 150 points in the first matchup between these two teams last week. That game ultimately fizzled with just 134 points as UCLA rolled to a double-digit victory. The Wildcats followed up that loss with another unimpressive offensive showing, albeit in a double-digit win of their own over Arizona State, scoring just 67 points on 32% shooting. Keep in mind, Arizona still ranks second in the nation in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Wildcats offense in this one. UCLA hasn't posted monster offensive numbers away from home, but that's had a lot to do with the opposition they've faced. The Bruins simply haven't had to ramp it up offensively in order to secure road victories. Again, I expect a different story to unfold here. While the Bruins defense has been terrific, it also checks in 17th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Here, we'll note that Arizona has averaged 82.1 points per game when coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games totalling an average of 148.2 points (16-game sample size). The fact that Arizona shot just 30% on a whopping 75 field goal attempts in the last meeting indicates plenty of points were left on the table in that one. Also note that the game featured a grand total of just 16 free throw attempts. Noting that last year's meeting in Tucson totalled 157 points, I'm quite comfortable playing the 'over' in this rematch. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | Western Illinois v. Oral Roberts OVER 161.5 | Top | 90-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
CBB Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect either of these teams to pump the breaks one bit in this rematch of a wild 87-86 Oral Roberts victory in January. We're talking about two teams that rank well inside the nation's top-50 in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) with neither boasting a great deal of defensive prowess. Western Illinois scored 'only' 75 points in a disappointing home loss against UMKC last time out. The Leathernecks left plenty of points on the table in that game as they turned the ball over 15 times and shot just 44% from the field. That marked the second time in their last four games that they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 56% from the field. Oral Roberts is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 100 and 89 points in wins over Nebraska-Omaha and Denver. While Western Illinois will pose a more difficult challenge, the Golden Eagles should be up for it. They average an incredible 87.7 points per game at home this season. That's on the strength of 13-of-31 shooting from beyond the arc. You could argue that Western Illinois was fortunate to only lose by a single point in the first meeting between these two teams this season as ORU knocked down just nine three-pointers in the game. Speaking of that contest, Western Illinois shot a woeful 40% from the field but isn't likely to shy away from pushing the pace again here, noting that it did get plenty of good looks on 64 field goal attempts, not to mention 30 free throws in that narrow loss. While this total has been adjusted by a couple of points, I don't believe it will be enough. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers -10 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up nicely for the 76ers as they look to avenge a 117-98 loss in Washington on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (we won with the Wizards in that game). Washington is in the second of back-to-backs after fading late in a 14-point loss in Washington last night. The Wizards scored just 98 points in that game despite getting a season-high 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting from Montresz Harrell off the bench. Already without Bradley Beal, the Wiz also lost Thomas Bryant in that game. Bryant isn't generally a major factor but he does eat 15-20 minutes per game and did contribute 15 points in Washington's win over Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago. The 76ers managed to outlast the Grizzlies here on Monday, despite giving Joel Embiid the night off. Embiid should be back for this one. Note that while Philadelphia has scored over 100 points in seven straight games, Washington has been held under the century mark in three of its last four and things aren't likely to improve until Bradley Beal can return. Prior to that sleepy matinee affair in Washington on MLK Day, the Sixers had put up 117, 129, 114, 132, 120, 125, 127 and 141 points in their previous eight meetings with the Wizards. Note that the Wiz have given up an average of 120.8 points when playing the second of back-to-back road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-02-22 | Hartford v. New Hampshire -4.5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
CBB America East Game of the Year. My selection is on New Hampshire minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These teams may be heading in opposite directions from an ATS perspective, with Hartford having gone 5-1 ATS over its last six games and New Hampshire managing just one ATS victory in its last seven, but I look for the Wildcats to right the ship and deliver a convincing victory on Wednesday. This is a rematch from a game played in Hartford back on January 19th. The Hawks prevailed by double-digits in that game, turning in a near-perfect offensive performance, shooting better than 52% from the field while turning the ball over just six times. Since then, Hartford has only managed to split its last four games but does come into this one off a 12-point victory at lowly Maine - its second consecutive win. New Hampshire has been alternating wins and losses over its last nine games and checks in off a seven-point home loss but that came against one of America East's elite teams in Stony Brook. Consecutive games against Hartford and Maryland-Baltimore County will give the Wildcats a chance to gain some traction in the conference before a return date against Stony Brook next week. They've certainly had this home game against the Hawks circled since that earlier loss in Hartford. UNH didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, shooting a miserable 37% from the field. The shots simply weren't falling but I expect a different story to unfold here in New Hampshire on Wednesday. Credit the Wildcats for managing to shoot just shy of 47% in that most recent loss to Stony Brook. It undoubtedly catches Hartford in a letdown spot here after the Hawks shot a blistering 60% from the field against a weak Maine squad last time out. Take New Hampshire (10*). |
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02-01-22 | Warriors v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs essentially 'punted' Sunday's game in Phoenix, sitting Jakob Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, yet still managed to give the Suns a serious run in an eventual five-point loss. Here, the shoe is on the other foot, with the Warriors in a back-to-back spot off a double-digit win in Houston. Klay Thompson won't play on Tuesday. The Warriors have played at least every other day since January 9th so it's obviously been a bit of a grueling schedule. As much as they would like to get some revenge for an earlier home loss against the Spurs, I'm not convinced we'll see them go 'flat out' in this one. While the Spurs are just 10-16 at home this season, they've actually outscored their opponents by 0.7 points on average. Having faced the Grizzlies, Bulls and Suns over their last three games, the Spurs are certainly battle-tested heading into this one. I look for them to give the Warriors all they can handle on Tuesday. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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02-01-22 | Boston College v. Virginia -8.5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Boston College at 6 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are coming off a tough road loss at Notre Dame on Saturday. They've now alternated wins and losses over their last eight games and I expect them to successfully bounce back once again here as they host Boston College on Tuesday. The Eagles delivered a double-digit win over Pitt on Sunday. I simply don't feel Boston College's ceiling in terms of offensive production is high enough to pose much of a challenge against the Cavaliers defense here. The Eagles generally play at Virginia's preferred pace. Boston College has actually relied quite heavily on getting to the free throw line for offensive production this season, averaging 18 attempts per game. Virginia has been stingy in that department, however, particularly here at home where they play tough defense but do so with plenty of discipline, sending opponents to the free throw line just nine times per contest. Virginia certainly isn't known for its offense but it does come into this game having shot better than 45% in three of its last four games, scoring 63 points or more in all four games. I'm expecting the Cavaliers to get well into the 60's again in this one and that will prove to be enough for the win and cover. Take Virginia (10*). |
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01-31-22 | New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 47-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and San Diego State at 10 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most in this Mountain West matchup on Monday night as San Diego State looks to bounce back from a disappointing lopsided loss at Utah State. That game was played last Wednesday night so the Aztecs have had five days to chew on it and I expect them to come out with plenty of fire as a result on Monday. Whether that fire leads to offensive success is up for debate but I'm confident the Aztecs will put their best foot forward defensively. Note that off its four previous losses this season, San Diego State allowed just 63, 47, 56 and 55 points in its next game with the 'under' going a profitable 3-1. The only game that didn't stay 'under' the total still reached just 135 points. Given how well New Mexico has been playing (7-1-1 ATS over its last nine games) I don't expect it to let San Diego State run up the score here. The Lobos are by no means an elite defensive team, but they're a confident bunch right now and I do feel they can handle San Diego State's very manageable pace. Note that the Aztecs average just a shade over 67 points per game at home this season and 70.8 points per game when coming off a loss. The Aztecs did score 80 points on 52% shooting in a win over UNLV in their most recent home game, but they're also just two games removed from an ugly 37-point on 28% shooting performance against Boise State on this same floor. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 with San Diego State priced as a home favorite of between -12.5 and -15 points over the last three seasons with those games totalling an average of just 125.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-31-22 | Kings +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 96-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Kings have endured a miserable road trip so far, losing all four games, but managing to go 2-2 ATS. They enter Monday's game on a season-long six-game losing streak but I fully expect them to hang tough against the struggling Knicks in this one. Keep in mind, Sacramento has taken quality opponents in the Bucks and most recently the 76ers down to the wire on this trip. Here, they catch a Knicks squad that has lost six of its last seven games, going 1-2 SU and ATS as a favorite over that stretch. On nine previous occasions, the Kings have played on the road off a straight-up loss but ATS cover as an underdog over the lat two seasons, and in that situation they've lost by just 2.3 points on average. That's certainly an improvement over their overall performance away from home this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 8.2 points while going 6-17 SU. On the flip side, the Knicks have only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.8 points when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (60-game sample size). Take Sacramento (10*). |
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01-30-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 210 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. This first meeting between these two teams totalled just 176 points back in mid-November and I believe Sunday's posted total will prove too high as well. This is the start of a grueling week for the Cavs as they'll play five games between now and next Sunday. I can certainly see them 'managing' this one knowing they'll be back on the floor at home against the Pelicans tomorrow night. Detroit checks in having scored over 100 points in five straight games, although it just barely got over that number in three of those games. That marks a season-long streak of the sort for Detroit, one that should be in jeopardy against the Cavs on Sunday. Note that Cleveland has held its last three opponents to just 99, 93 and 87 points and comes into this game well-rested having not played since Wednesday, when it rolled to a 115-99 win over the Bucks at home. While the Pistons are by no means a top-flight defensive team, they have managed to hold opponents to 4.1 points per game below their season average here at home. Like the Cavs, they're rested, playing just their second game in the last five days. Take the under (10*). |
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01-30-22 | New Orleans +1.5 v. McNeese State | Top | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over McNeese State at 6 pm et on Sunday. This is a big revenge spot for New Orleans after it suffered a strange 92-82 loss to McNeese State back on January 6th - a game in which UNO knocked down just one three-pointer and one that saw a whopping 88 combined free throw attempts from the two teams. Since then, New Orleans has reeled off seven straight wins while McNeese State 3-4 SU and 2-4 ATS in lined contests. It's also worth noting that New Orleans turned the basketball over 18 times compared to McNeese State's 13 in that earlier meeting. On the season, UNO averages two fewer turnovers per contest. New Orleans has consistently drummed this McNeese State defense, putting up 82, 99 and 82 points in the last three meetings, winning two of those games. Simply put, too much weight is being placed on that earlier matchup between these two. Look for New Orleans' talent and experience to win out in this one. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-29-22 | Wizards v. Grizzlies UNDER 228.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I look for the Grizzlies to 'manage' this game after securing a double-digit win over the Jazz on this same floor last night and before heading out on a three-game road trip beginning on Monday night in Philadelphia. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of four games in a row including that stunning setback at home against the Clippers after leading by 30+ on Tuesday. The Wiz couldn't buy a basket when they needed it most in the fourth quarter in that one and are just one game removed from an ugly 87-point effort against the Celtics. Keep in mind, Washington averages 2.7 points below its season scoring average on the road, where its games have totalled an average of just 214.6 points. Here, we'll note that the Grizzlies have posted a 1-13 o/u record when seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 213.0 points. That's worth noting given the most recent meeting between these two teams went the way of the Wizards by a 115-87 score in Washington back in early November with that contest easily staying 'under' the 220.5-point total. We're dealing with an even higher number here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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01-29-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Stetson OVER 139.5 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Atlantic Sun Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Kentucky and Stetson at 4 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of upside playing this one 'over' the total with the number sitting in the high-130's. We'll certainly see a contrast in styles here as Eastern Kentucky ranks top-25 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Stetson sits well north of 300th in that category. With that being said, Stetson is just two games removed from a 91-point performance in a narrow two-point home loss against Florida-Gulf Coast. There's reason to believe we'll see Stetson push the pace a little more than usual here after it was held to just 47 points on 28% shooting last time out against Bellarmine. Despite its break-neck place, Eastern Kentucky hasn't posted an 'over' result since the first week of December. Keep in mind, it has regularly seen totals posted in the 150's and 160's. We're dealing with a much lower total here. Stetson has high hopes this season after appearing in the CBI Tournament last April and returning a wealth of talent. Rob Perry being sidelined hasn't helped its cause but in theory there is plenty of depth - particularly at the guard position - to make up for his absence. Regardless, I believe the Hatters will be afforded plenty of good looks against a 'defense-optional' Eastern Kentucky squad here as both teams do their part in helping this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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01-28-22 | Jazz +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz continue to struggle, losers of nine of their last 11 games entering Friday's showdown in Memphis. They check in off consecutive hard-fought losses against the Suns. While they're on a three-game losing streak, those three losses have come by only a combined 16 points. Utah is always tough on Memphis. In fact, you would have to go all the way back to 2017 to find the last time the Grizzlies were favored in a matchup in this series. Memphis was red hot in late December into early January. However, it checks in just 3-3 SU and ATS over its last six contests. Over that stretch, the Grizzlies were held to 91 points or less on two occasions. On the flip side of that, Memphis has allowed north of 100 points in 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 games. Here, we'll note that the Jazz are a long-term 136-99 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games, which is the case here. I don't expect them to let the Grizzlies off the hook easy as they look to open this road trip on a positive note. Take Utah (10*). |
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01-27-22 | Wolves v. Warriors OVER 228.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'm high on both of these teams entering this nationally-televised matchup on Thursday night. While we're dealing with a fairly high total at first glance, I believe it will prove too low. The T'Wolves have now given up over 100 points in each of their last 18 road games. They're giving up just shy of 115 points per game away from home this season. Golden State is coming off its second highest-scoring performance of the season, putting up 130 points in a rout of the Mavs two nights ago. Klay Thompson appears to be getting more comfortable with each passing game (he had actually sat the previous two games before Tuesday's blowout win). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 64-29 the last 93 times the Warriors played at home seeking revenge for a 20+ point loss, as is the case here after they suffered a 119-99 setback in Minnesota less than two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Warriors elected to rest a number of their starters in that game at the tail-end of a four-game road trip. The T'Wolves are playing as well offensively as any team in the league right now, having scored 108 points or more in nine straight games. They're just one game removed from a 136-point outburst against Brooklyn. There's little reason for them to shy away from the challenge at hand here as the T'Wolves have scored 108, 111, 126, 110 and 119 points in five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2021. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 in Minnesota's last 33 games when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 235.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-22 | California v. UCLA UNDER 130 | Top | 57-81 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and UCLA at 9 pm et on Thursday. Cal is coming off a dreadful performance against Arizona in which it was ripped for 96 points. That could be considered an outlier, however, as the Bears had only allowed more than 65 points once in five previous Pac-12 contests this season. UCLA came up with a stunning 16-point upset win over Arizona two nights ago which obviously sets it up in a bit of a letdown spot here. The Bruins are locked in defensively right now, allowing 65, 58, 65 and 59 points over their last four contests. Since the start of 2020, they've held Cal to 40, 56, 57 and 52 points with the latter coming in a 60-52 victory earlier this month. With both teams adept at taking care of the basketball, I look for much of this one to be played in the half-court, much like we saw in the first meeting between these two squads this season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-27-22 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska OVER 145 | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin and Nebraska at 5 pm et on Thursday. I don't believe for a second that Nebraska's defense can contain Wisconsin's offense in this game. The Badgers, more often known for their patient, methodical offense have shifted into another gear this season. They check in averaging well north of 70 points per game and come into this game in a foul mood after dropping an 86-74 decision against Michigan State last time out. This is an ideal bounce-back spot as the Cornhuskers don't play a lick of defense, allowing 87, 79, 93, 81, 92 and 78 points over their last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 5-1 clip along the way. Desperate for a victory off six consecutive losses, I'm confident we'll see Nebraska throw everything it has at the Badgers defense in this one. We've certainly seen cracks in that Badger defense as they've given up a very un-Wisconsin-like 43.9% shooting on the season. The Huskers should find their opportunities, noting that they rank 21st in the nation in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Last year's two meetings between these two teams were low-scoring. Different story here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-26-22 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 223.5 | Top | 105-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We just saw these two teams combine to score 224 points in Phoenix two nights ago. The Jazz were undermanned but battled hard in a tight six-point loss. While they're getting healthier, they're still missing a big part of their offense in the form of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. The Suns check in having allowed over 100 points in five straight games, matching their longest such streak of the season. Note that the only other time that happened, they allowed just 94 points in a blowout win in Memphis in their next game - a contest that easily stayed 'under' the total, reaching just 213 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 31-17 when the Suns play on the road with a total of between 220 and 229.5 points over the last three seasons. In fact, the 'under' is 14-8 in all Suns road games this season. The Jazz are just one game removed from allowing only 94 points in a game against the Warriors that totalled just 186 points in San Francisco. Utah doesn't have the weapons to prevail in a track meet against the Suns right now and it knows it. Note that the last meeting between these two teams in Utah totalled only 201 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall OVER 145.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
CBB Big East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Marquette and Seton Hall at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on January 15th. That game totalled 145 points, staying comfortably below the closing total of 152.5 points. Now that both teams come in riding three-game 'under' streaks, I believe this total has swung too far in the other direction. Note that in that previous meeting Seton Hall scored 72 points despite turning the basketball over a whopping 20 times. The Pirates average only 12 turnovers per game (despite ranking 53rd in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom). I expect a far more efficient offensive performance from Seton Hall here, especially after shooting sub-40% from the field in consecutive games. As for Marquette, it ranks 42nd in the country in adjusted tempo and is playing its best basketball of the season, reeling off six straight wins both SU and ATS. The Golden Eagles scored 75 points in a win over Xavier last time out but that's really only scratching the surface offensively as they started their current win streak by scoring 88, 92 and 87 points in consecutive games. After holding their last two opponents under 39% shooting, I look for some regression from the Golden Eagles defense here, noting that they've allowed 89 points at Wisconsin and 80 points at Xavier earlier this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-25-22 | Lakers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Fading the Nets fell just short of my card on Sunday, a regretful decision as they ended up losing by double-digits as a short underdog in Minnesota. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Brooklyn as it looks to bounce back from that loss at home against the Lakers. Simply put, I'm not buying what Los Angeles is selling right now. Yes, the Lakers are expected to have Anthony Davis back on the floor for this game but how much he can contribute in his first game back remains to be seen. Los Angeles is fresh off a beatdown in Miami on Sunday (it ultimately rallied late to make the final score far less unflattering). The Lakers are just 2-5 SU and ATS over their last seven games and find themselves four games under .500 on the road. The Nets are a woeful 5-17 ATS here in Brooklyn this season but the problem certainly hasn't been failing to cover spreads in an underdog role. In fact, the Nets have been listed as a home underdog just once previously this season and ultimately won that game 114-105 over the 76ers back on December 16th. It does appear that Brooklyn may have put its pointspread woes behind it in the short-term picture, entering this game having gone 4-3 ATS over its last seven contests. Of course, the Nets won't have Kyrie Irving for this game, as is the case when they play at home, but that's certainly been factored into this line. I look for James Harden to relish the opportunity to step up, especially off a poor performance on Sunday in Minnesota, and dispatch the struggling Lakers. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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01-25-22 | Clippers +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. So many people wrote off the Clippers after Paul George was lost to injury, with Kawhi Leonard of course already sidelined for the season. This is a well-coached team that is by no means devoid of talent, however, and we've certainly seen that as they've gone 5-3 ATS over their last eight games, including an upset win in Philadelphia on this road trip. The Wizards have been a train-wreck from an ATS perspective, going 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. While this should be an ideal bounce-back spot in theory as they come in off of three straight home losses and try to salvage the finale of their current homestand, it's also a prime bounce-back spot for the Clippers coming off an eight-point loss in a sleepy matinee affair against the Knicks on Sunday in Manhattan. Here, we'll note that the Clips are 29-16 ATS when playing on the road off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points in that situation. As for the Wizards, they're a woeful 7-15 ATS as a favorite this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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01-24-22 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 124.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up as a prime bounce-back spot for both defenses. Louisville just gave up 82 points on a ridiculous 63% shooting in a loss to Notre Dame on Saturday, marking its fourth loss in its last five games. There's no reason to expect a repeat performance here as the Cardinals look to contain a Virginia team that hasn't sniffed 70 points over its last five games, topping out at 66 points and scoring sub-60 in three of those contests. For its part, Virginia allowed N.C. State to score 77 points on 60% shooting in a loss on Saturday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Cavaliers last two games. That situation has come up three times previously this season, and on each occasion the 'under' has cashed in the next game. We know the Hoos' can play defense. Here at home they're allowing just 57.5 points per game on 40.6% shooting. The Cardinals don't figure to be able to expose any sort of weaknesses, noting that they average right around three points below their season scoring average on the road, where they shoot just a shade over 40% from the field. The last time these two teams met on this floor they combined to score just 111 points. Expect more of the same on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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01-23-22 | 76ers v. Spurs OVER 220 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and San Antonio at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the 76ers and Spurs on Sunday evening as both teams look to bounce back from disappointing losses last time out. Philadelphia blew a big lead in a 102-101 home loss to the Clippers on Friday. The Sixers should know better than to take their foot off the gas but that's essentially what happened in that contest. While they're generally a solid defensive team, they've allowed over 100 points in three straight games and figure to struggle to contain a Spurs offense that has put up over the century mark in six straight games and averages just shy of 114 points per contest at home this season. To say that San Antonio has had its hands full with the Sixers offense in recent meetings would be an understatement. It has allowed 122, 115, 132, 134, 113 and 119 points in the last six matchups in this series going back to the start of 2019. Interestingly, the Spurs have been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing opponents to score 112.8 points per game on 46.5% shooting. The 'over' has gone 10-2 with San Antonio in the role of home underdog this season with that spot producing an average total of 226.4 points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-22-22 | Houston Baptist v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi -12.5 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas A&M Corpus Christi minus the points over Houston Baptist at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with Texas A&M Corpus Christi last Saturday as the Islanders rolled to a 16-point win over Incarnate Word. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this afternoon as they stay at home for a fourth straight game to host lowly Houston Baptist. The Islanders are coming off a narrow four-point win over McNeese State on Thursday. That tight result wasn't all that surprising as it was a quick rematch after the Islanders won the first meeting by 13 points back on January 8th. Here, Corpus Christi will be getting its first look at Houston Baptist this season. The Huskies own a 5-10 overall record this season but that's a little flattering as four of their five victories came against non-Division I opponents. The other came by just three points against aforementioned 4-15 Incarnate Word on Thursday night. While the Huskies have been playing a little better lately, I don't believe it will be enough to stay within arm's reach of the Islanders on Saturday. Take Texas A&M Corpus Christi (10*). |
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01-21-22 | Nets v. Spurs +3 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We won with the Nets as a short underdog in Washington two nights ago and were fortunate to do so as they did everything they could to cough up the lead in the fourth quarter. Here, I'll go the other way and fade the Nets as they continue their road trip in San Antonio. The Spurs will be looking to avenge a 121-119 overtime loss in Brooklyn back on January 9th. They were in a tough spot on that day, playing near the end of a long eastern road trip but battled hard and ultimately forced overtime before falling by a bucket. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is 22-11 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Nets are a woeful 3-13 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscored by 4.7 points on average in that situation. While the Spurs are just 2-3 on their current homestand there's been no real shame in losses to the Rockets (who have been playing their best ball lately), Cavs and Suns. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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01-20-22 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Irvine -6 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Big West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cal-Irvine minus the points over Cal-State Fullerton at 10 pm et on Thursday. This price has shifted right into our lap on Thursday as the Anteaters look to snap out of a 1-4 slide at home against red hot Cal-State Fullerton. Irvine started the season with a very manageable schedule but things have gotten a lot tougher lately. They're coming off an outright loss by double-digits at Hawaii one week ago tonight so they've had ample time to sit and stew over that setback and get ready for this very winnable matchup against Fullerton. The Titans have won five straight games but that's had as much to do with a weak schedule rather than anything else. While Irvine was projected by most to finish top-two in the Big West at the outset of the season, Fullerton was pegged as a middle-of-the-pack team. There's certainly still time for that to play out and I look for the Anteaters to take a step in the right direction with a convincing win on Thursday. Take Cal-Irvine (10*). |
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01-19-22 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | Top | 116-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. This total has been dropping in our favor, not surprisingly, as bettors realize the Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday night. I'm expecting nothing short of a track meet in Salt Lake City. The Rockets are playing better basketball than they had been, recording two wins in their last three games, scoring 128, 114 and 118 points over their last three games. They're as healthy as they've been all season and should come out with an attacking mindset against a suddenly-struggling Jazz squad. Utah has lost five of its last six games and has posted its two lowest-scoring games of the season over its last three contests. Even without Mitchell, this is a fine 'get right' spot for the Jazz, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. The Rockets are one of the league's worst defensive teams and check in having allowed 130, 141, 111, 124, 126 and 112 points over their last six games. To say the 'over' has been a solid bet in Rockets games would be a massive understatement as they've posted a 21-7 o/u record over their last 28 games. While Utah carries a reputation of being a solid defensive team, it has actually given up over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. The 'over' is 20-9-1 in the Jazz's last 30 contests. Finally, I'll point out that the last meeting between these two teams here in Utah took place last May and totalled a whopping 240 points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-18-22 | South Carolina +12.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Arkansas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This line has been bet up a couple of points since opening to the point that I like the way this one sets up for the Gamecocks, or perhaps moreso as a fade of Arkansas. The Hogs held Missouri to a ridiculous 43 points two games back and followed that up with an upset win at LSU on Saturday. That leaves them in a clear letdown spot here as they host South Carolina which is coming off back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Florida. While the Gamecocks have been wildly inconsistent this season, prolonged ATS losing streaks haven't been part of it. They enter this game on a season-long two-game ATS skid - one that I expect them to break tonight. By contrast, Arkansas is coming off consecutive ATS wins for the first time this season. Here, we'll note that Arkansas has gone 18-35 ATS in its last 53 games when coming off an outright upset win over a conference opponent, outscored by 2.3 points on average in that spot. South Carolina won outright as a 6.5-point underdog the last time these two teams met on this floor two years ago. While I'm not calling for an outright Gamecocks win here, I do expect them to keep it close. Take South Carolina (10*). |
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01-17-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +3.5 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 2:10 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Wizards in this game as they look to bounce back from Saturday's disappointing home loss to the undermanned Blazers, and snap a two-game skid in this series with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off an outright underdog win in Miami on Saturday. I don't need to tell you that wasn't really a true 'upset'. The 76ers are one of the Eastern Conference's best teams and they're coming off consecutive wins over the Celtics and aforementioned Heat. I believe a letdown may be in order here, however. While the Sixers are 16-8 on the road this season they've actually only outscored opponents by 1.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Wizards are in one of their most favorable spots here, having gone 33-19 ATS in their last 52 home games when coming off a loss. Bradley Beal may be back for the Wiz this afternoon but even if he's not I like the way this spot sets up. Consider it a bonus if he's able to go. Take Washington (10*). |
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01-15-22 | Incarnate Word v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi -13.5 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Southland Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas A&M Corpus Christi minus the points over Incarnate Word at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. The Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders have quietly been one of the best bets in the nation this season, going 10-3 ATS. They're in a smash spot on Saturday as they host 4-13 Incarnate Word. The Cardinals are actually coming off a win last Saturday but that came at the expense of 4-9 Houston Baptist. Incarnate Word's three previous wins this season came against the likes of Dallas Christian, 5-12 Grambling State and Our Lady of the Lake. The Cardinals have recently lost games by 31 points at home against Nicholls State, 45 points at Texas, 30 points at Rice and 33 points at Abilene-Christian. The Islanders have plenty of runway in front of them right now, with their next three games coming at home against Incarnate Word, McNeese State and Houston Baptist as they look to climb from third spot in the Southland Conference. Take Texas A&M Corpus Christi (10*). |
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01-14-22 | Fresno State v. UNLV +2 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 11 pm et on Friday. This line has been moving in Fresno State's favor which is not all that surprising ahead of this Mountain West clash on Friday night in Sin City. Fresno State is off to a stellar 13-4 start this season but a closer inspection indicates we should perhaps pump the brakes a little. Note that the Bulldogs rank 228th in the nation in terms of strength of schedule (according to KenPom). Not only that but they sit 354th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While that's not a reason for concern in and of itself, the fact that they shoot just a shade over 40% from the field on the road and average only six made threes per game is. Keep in mind, they continue to play without transfer Jemarl Baker, who was supposed to be a big part of their offense this season and contributed 30 points in only 41 minutes in his final two games before injuring his knee back in December. UNLV is coming off an 85-point explosion in a 29-point rout of New Mexico last time out. The Runnin' Rebels have scored 80+ points in each of their last three games and check in 5-1 SU And 4-2 ATS over their last six contests. The Rebels shouldn't have to approach that lofty point total here noting that the winner in this matchup has reached 68 points or less in each of the last three meetings, with the Rebels winning two of those games (both here at home). Note that UNLV ranks a respectable 125th in the country in terms of strength of schedule. With a tough three-game stretch on the road on deck, earning a victory here is critical for the Rebels. While they're just one game removed from a seven-point loss against San Diego State, I think it's actually impressive that they 'only' lost by seven despite shooting sub-30% from the field. Give them credit for holding each of their last three opponents to 36% or worse shooting. If UNLV can find a way to push the pace a little bit and make the Bulldogs uncomfortable, I'm confident it can find success on Friday night. Take UNLV (10*). |
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01-14-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 223.5 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. After being held down offensively (relatively speaking) in consecutive games against top-level defensive teams in the Bucks and 76ers, I look for the Hornets to bust out in this one (noting that they're coming off consecutive sub-110-point scoring performances for the first time since mid-December). Charlotte has scored 120 and 106 points in the first two meetings in this series this season. Note that on the latter occasion, the Hornets shot a miserable 12-of-41 from three-point range. Perhaps they could be excused for that performance as they were playing their third game in five nights on the road. The Magic aren't exactly shooting the lights out right now but they are expected to get an offensive boost with the likely return of Jalen Suggs on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 48-30 when the Magic seek revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons and Charlotte just happens to be one of the most forgiving defensive teams in the league, giving up an average of 115.5 points per game. The last time these two teams squared off here in Charlotte, they combined to score 234 points last May. There's little reason to expect the Hornets to 'manage' this game and perhaps hold a little something back as they will have the entire weekend off before heading to New York for a date with the Knicks on Monday. Charlotte averages 118.3 points per game when playing before two or more days off this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-13-22 | Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up for the Timberwolves. They're coming off a loss as a favorite in New Orleans two nights ago, snapping their four-game winning streak. Note that Minnesota is 23-12 ATS in its last 35 games coming off a road loss, as is the case here, outscored by just 3.8 points on average in that spot. It may come as a surprise but despite their 9-11 SU record on the road, the Wolves have gone 13-7 ATS. That's despite all of their key contributors in and out of the lineup due to illness or injury. The Grizzlies are in high favor right now, having won seven straight games, culminating with a 116-108 win over the mighty Warriors two nights ago. Not surprisingly, bettors are lining up to back them on Thursday and we've seen this line rise by a full point since opening (at the time of writing). I like the Grizzlies, but I like backing them a whole lot more in the role of underdog or short favorite. That's simply not the case here, noting as well that they lost the most recent meeting in this series by 43 points back in late November and their last two wins over the T'Wolves have come by relatively short margins of seven and four points. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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01-13-22 | Detroit +1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Horizon League Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over IUPU-Fort Wayne at 7 pm et on Thursday. We've seen a considerable line move toward Fort Wayne and why not? After all it is coming off consecutive road wins over Youngstown State and Robert Morris and has actually won five games in a row ATS. Let's not get too carried away though as Fort Wayne checks in ranked a miserable 325th in strength of schedule according to KenPom. While Detroit hasn't exactly faced a who's who of the country's best teams, it does rank considerably higher than Fort Wayne in that department at 180th. Detroit has played just one game since the holiday break, securing a 25-point win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee last Friday. The Titans are 5-1 SU and ATS over their last six contests and perhaps present a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the Fort Wayne defense here, noting that Detroit averages a whopping 28 three-point attempts per game this season. I don't anticipate much different that we saw in this matchup last year, when Detroit knocked down 28 three-pointers on its way to 82-72 and 83-56 victories over Fort Wayne. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-12-22 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 231.5 | Top | 116-125 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and the second in a little over a week. Last week's game went the Lakers way by a 122-114 score in Los Angeles. Naturally, that high-scoring 'over' result is leading to a slightly higher posted total for this one, but I believe it's the wrong move. While the Lakers have not surprisingly been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, they've also been a stronger defensive team - at least from a points per game allowed perspective. The 'under' checks in a profitable 9-7 in their 16 road contests to date, including a matchup between these same two teams here in Sacramento back in November that totalled just 209 points. The Kings have seen the 'under' cash at a 15-9 clip at home this season and enter this game playing a rather uneven brand of offensive basketball, having scored 102, 111, 88 and 108 points over their last four games with the 'under' cashing in three of those contests. The Lakers have of course seen the 'over' cash in three consecutive high-scoring affairs but I do think we have a 'catalyst for change' at play here as they hit the road, and do so off a disappointing loss against the Grizzlies on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 24-12 in the Lakers last 36 road games when coming off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 215.3 points. The 'under' is a perfect 9-0 in the Kings last nine games when coming off a game in which they covered the spread but failed to win outright, which is the situation here off Monday's narrow home loss to the Cavs. Take the under (10*). |
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01-12-22 | Maryland +6 v. Northwestern | Top | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland plus the points over Northwestern at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not buying into the considerable line move here as I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these two teams, both coming off three consecutive losses and both off hard-fought losses against seemingly superior in-conference opponents. Note that the Terps have faced the 43rd toughest schedule in the nation to date according to KenPom while Northwestern, picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten standings at the outset of the season, checks in ranked 178th in strength of schedule. Maryland has had an issue with turning the ball over this season but has cleaned that up a bit lately, with 12 or fewer turnovers in four straight games (after a stretch of 14 or more in four consecutive contests). Of course, this is an in-season revenge game for Maryland after it dropped a 67-61 decision at home against Northwestern back on December 5th. The underdog has delivered the cash in three straight meetings in this series while Maryland has come away victorious in five of its last six trips to Northwestern. Here, we'll also note that the Terps are an impressive 14-2 ATS the last 16 times they've come off three or more consecutive losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 12.9 points on average in that spot. Take Maryland (10*). |
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01-11-22 | Suns v. Raptors +4.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns simply haven't been the same spread-covering juggernaut they were last season, checking in at 30-9 SU but just 21-18 ATS so far this season. They enter Tuesday's matchup in Toronto having gone just 4-5 ATS over their last nine games and an even 9-9 ATS over their last 18 contests. The Raptors on the other hand have reeled off six consecutive wins and own a terrific 12-3 ATS mark over their last 15 games. There was a sense of 'here we go again' in Toronto early in the campaign following last year's championship hangover, but credit the Raps for coming together and turning things around, despite plenty of key absences along the way. They're relatively healthy now and will have revenge on their minds here after getting swept in the two-game season series with the Suns last year. Keep in mind, they were competitive in both games, losing by four points here at home and eight on the road. Phoenix managed to go 2-0 ATS in those contests thanks to laying 3.5 points or less in both. While most will expect a big bounce-back performance from the Suns off Sunday's blowout loss at home against the Heat, I'm no so easily convinced. They've shot 41.1% or worse from the field in three of their last five games and have also inexplicably allowed two of their three highest point totals of the season over that stretch. After this game the Raptors will have a couple of days off before a five-game road trip. While I'm not going to make a habit of fading the Suns (we've actually cashed numerous tickets in support of them this season), I do think this is a favorable spot to do so. Take Toronto (10*). |
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01-11-22 | George Washington +17 v. VCU | Top | 57-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Atlantic-10 Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on George Washington plus the points over VCU at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We've cashed a couple of tickets with VCU this season, including one in its thrilling buzzer-beating road win over Dayton last week. The Commodores are undoubtedly playing terrific basketball right now but I see this as a flat spot in an early-week home game against lowly George Washington. The Colonials were picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic-10 standings this season and to no one's surprise, that's where they're wallowing as we head into mid-January. With that being said, they have managed to go 2-1 over their last three games and it shouldn't be difficult to get up and bounce back from a 25-point beatdown at home against Dayton last time out. While VCU is coming off a 19-point rout of La Salle, it isn't really built to run away and hide from teams, noting that it averages just 53 field goal attempts and five made three-pointers per game this season. The Commodores turned in a near-perfect game last time out against the Explorers, shooting better than 51% from the field, turning the ball over only eight times while forcing 19. That wrapped up a perfect 2-0 road trip. You can understand why returning home to host a team like George Washington in a 'name-your-score' type of game may not be all that inspiring. Keep in mind, George Washington managed to stay comfortably inside the pointspread in last year's lone meeting, dropping a seven-point decision at home as an 11.5-point underdog. Noting that VCU does turn the ball over two more times per game than GWU and also sends opponents to the free throw line an average of 18 times per contest, not to mention the fact that the Commodores have a clear look-ahead with a trip to St. Bonaventure on deck later this week, I like the Colonials to stay inside the lofty number on Tuesday. Take George Washington (10*). |
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01-10-22 | Jazz v. Pistons +12 | Top | 116-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 'foul mood' narrative is weighing heavily with a lot of bettors in this one as the Jazz enter this game off back-to-back losses in Toronto and Indiana. We've seen the line shift a point-and-a-half in favor of Utah over the course of the morning and I believe it's gotten out of hand. As bad as the Pistons have been this season, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 5.7 points here at home. They come into this game having won three of their last five games overall and have gone an even 6-6 ATS over their last 12 contests. As for the Jazz, they're missing a number of key contributors and not only enter off consecutive SU losses, but have gone a miserable 3-10 ATS over their last 13 games. In three meetings since the start of 2020, the Jazz's largest margin of victory in this series has been 12 points, and that came at home in a game where they were favored by 13. The last time Utah played here in Detroit it was favored by just 8.5 points and won by 10 last January. Take Detroit (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 226 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers defense has been dreadful over the course of their current 6-2 'over' run but they have an opportunity to perhaps catch their breath here as the Grizzlies stay in L.A. after brushing aside the Clippers yeterday afternoon and play their fifth game in the last seven nights, having gone a perfect 4-0 in their previous four, part of an eight-game winning streak. Not only are the Grizzlies likely road weary (their last four games have been played in four different cities), they're also dealing with some key injuries and absences. They recently welcomed Dillon Brooks back to the lineup but he was forced to leave yesterday's game with an ankle injury. Ja Morant sat out yesterday's game with a thigh injury but could return tonight. Regardless, it's worth noting that the Grizzlies have held 20 of their last 22 opponents to 108 points or less. The two teams that scored more than that were the Suns and Warriors and even in those games the Grizzlies only allowed 113 points. After the first meeting between these two teams totalled 239 points back in October, their two matchups in December reached identical totals of 203 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games following six or more consecutive victories while the 'under' is 26-9 in the Lakers last 35 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Ohio State at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect points to come at a premium in this Big Ten matchup with Northwestern coming off consecutive home losses in-conference and Ohio State fresh off a 16-point dismantling at the hands of Indiana on the road. Note that the Buckeyes have turned in two of their best defensive efforts of the season when coming off their two previous losses this season, holding Duke to 38.5% shooting following a loss to Florida and Seton Hall to 38.1% shooting after a loss against Xavier. Note that Ohio State checks in 49th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Northwestern has given up 70+ points in consecutive games for the first time this season but still ranks top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I don't expect Ohio State to run away and hide in this one, noting that the Buckeyes sit 249th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While Northwestern generally likes to push the pace a little bit, I'm not sure it will be afforded the opportunity to do so against the Buckeyes. The Wildcats have been able to force the tempo in large part thanks to facing the nation's 265th toughest schedule. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wildcats have played on the road following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 126.3 points. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 89-60 with the Buckeyes playing at home coming off an ATS loss, which is also the situation here, producing an average total of 133.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-22 | Appalachian State +2.5 v. Troy State | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over Troy at 5 pm et on Saturday. We won with Appalachian State in an arguably tougher matchup two nights ago as the Mountaineers went on the road and upset South Alabama by a 72-64 score - their second straight in-conference victory. They won that game despite not getting a single point from Justin Forrest in his first game back off the Covid list. I would certainly anticipate a sharper performance from Forrest in particular in Saturday's game. As we noted on Thursday, the Mountaineers have faced a very difficult schedule this season - ranking 78th in the nation in strength of schedule according to KenPom. Contrast that with Troy, which checks in 298th in that department yet has only managed three more victories than Appalachian State. I like the discipline we've seen from the Mountaineers this season as they only send opponents to the free throw line an average of 11 times per game. They also average five fewer turnovers per game than Troy, despite a similar number of possessions per contest. The Trojans have forced an additional five turnovers per game compared to the Mountaineers but again, strength of schedule factors in. Troy swept the season series between these two teams last year. Prior to that, Appalachian State had taken four of the last five meetings and we only have to go back three meetings at Troy (to December of 2019) to find the last time the Mountaineers won a game outright on this floor. Take Appalachian State (10*). |
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01-07-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 118-134 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Something has to give in this one as the Hawks try for their first winning streak since reeling off seven consecutive victories back in November while the Lakers try to post a fourth straight win for the first time this season. On a positive note for the Hawks, they have now won two of their last three games for the first time since that aforementioned winning streak, despite dealing with a multitude of Covid and injury-related absences. Trae Young is currently questionable to play on Friday due to back soreness. While I do expect him to play, I still like backing the Hawks in an underdog role here even if he doesn't (albeit with a lesser wager depending on the number). On the two previous occasions where the Lakers posted three straight wins this season they went on to lose their next game outright as a 10.5-point home favorite against Oklahoma City and as a 1.5-point road favorite against Minnesota. The Lakers are just 11-24 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 1.4 points on average. Worse still, they're a woeful 2-12 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same period, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. While the Hawks are a losing team on the road this season at 9-11 SU, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 1.8 points in those games. The Lakers on the other hand are 13-10 SU at home but have actually been outscored by 0.3 points on average - a big reason why they're a miserable 8-15 ATS here in Los Angeles this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-07-22 | Brown +3.5 v. Harvard | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Ivy League Game of the Year. My selection is on Brown plus the points over Harvard at 7 pm et on Friday. Brown enters this game on the heels of four straight losses including a heartbreaking 77-73 near-miss on the road against Penn last Sunday. The Bears have faced the 111th toughest schedule in the country so far this season according to KenPom while Harvard has faced the 303rd. So it's not surprising that the Crimson check in sporting the better overall record (although not by much at 7-4 compared to 8-8). Here, Harvard will be taking the floor in game action for the first time since December 21st. The 'rest vs. rust' conversation comes up yet again and here I think Brown has the distinct advantage having played three times (and against tough competition including road games at Syracuse and Maryland) since Harvard last played. While a lot of bettors will likely use the 'triple-revenge' angle in support of Harvard here, I'm not sure that plays a major factor. Both teams experienced plenty of roster turnover. Speaking of that, I'm high on Brown freshman Nana Owuse-Anane, who has contributed 6.8 points per game and 3.7 rebounds per game in 18.5 minutes on average so far this season. Loyola-Chicago transfer Paxson Wojcik is also a notable newcomer. It's worth pointing out that he failed to knock down a single three-pointer over the last two games (he had made 12 over his previous five games) yet the Bears were right there in contention for the ATS cover in each of those contests. I'm anticipating a solid bounce-back effort from him tonight. The Crimson rely heavily on the three-ball in their offense, averaging 10 made threes per game this season. Brown on the other hand has done an excellent job of limiting its opponents effectiveness from long range, allowing just six made threes per game on the road (on 18 attempts). While Brown has been shooting much better lately following a shaky start to the season (that had a lot to do with the aforementioned difficult, front-loaded schedule), Harvard has shot worse than 38% in three of its last four contests. Finally, I'll note that Harvard has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six lined games off consecutive home wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Brown (10*). |
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01-06-22 | Southern Miss +4 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Miss plus the points over UTSA at 8 pm et on Thursday. Southern Miss has plenty of returning experience on this year's team but isn't expected to make much noise in C-USA. Things have generally played out accordingly so far as the Golden Eagles check in 4-8 on the season, coming off six consecutive losses. With that being said, I see this as a winnable game. Note that while Southern Miss has only faced the 216th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, UTSA ranks 335th in that department. A closer inspection of the Roadrunners seven wins finds that they've defeated the likes of Trinity College (non-Div. 1), 5-11 Denver, 1-10 IUPUI (by three points at home), 2-13 Lamar, St. Mary's-Texas (non-Div. 1), Sam Houston State (their lone credible win) and Dallas Christian (non-Div. 1). It's not as if UTSA has been overly impressive in its wins - in fact, it checks in just 4-6 ATS in lined games this season. I do think that Southern Miss can frustrate UTSA with it's methodical pace, much like it did against East Carolina in a narrow one-point loss last time out. Interestingly, while the Golden Eagles average five fewer three-point attempts per game than the Roadrunners, they only make one fewer on average. Despite attempting 10 fewer field goals per contest, Southern Miss actually averages one more assist per game than UTSA. The Roadrunners have taken three straight meetings in this series although both of last year's matchups were close, with each game decided by exactly six points. Note that prior to those three consecutive wins, UTSA hadn't previously managed to win back-to-back meetings in the first 10 matchups all-time in this series. Take Southern Miss (10*). |
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01-06-22 | Celtics v. Knicks +1.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Knicks in the first meeting between these two teams way back in October before passing on their next matchup in December - a game New York lost by seven points in Boston. Here, I won't hesitate to get behind the Knicks again as they look to build some positive momentum off a win over the Pacers two nights ago. New York will be without both Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose for this one. I don't mind that as it allows Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett to step up, just as they did all last season. The Celtics have been a disappointment for the most part again this season and we just cashed a ticket fading them in their outright loss to the Spurs at home last night. Most will likely be looking to back Boston in this bounce-back spot but I don't see it. Note that the Celtics are just 7-12 SU on the road this season and check in a miserable 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games against Atlantic Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points. New York on the other hand is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take New York (10*). |
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01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Often times we see teams rise to the occasion without their best players and I believe that will be the case with the Heat on Wednesday as they look to snap a two-game losing streak with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines. Of course, tonight's opponent has its own injury issues with both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum remaining out. The Blazers did step up on Monday, securing a wild 136-131 come-from-behind win over the Hawks with Anfernee Simons going off for 43 points. Don't count on a repeat performance here, noting that Portland has won just four of its last 18 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Blazers right now as they've given up 130+ points in three of their last four games, allowing five straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the field. Even without Butler, the Heat still have Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro capable of stepping up and taking advantage of the Blazers dismal defense. Here, we'll note that Miami is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.7 points in that situation. Take Miami (10*). |
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01-05-22 | DePaul +5 v. St. John's | Top | 84-89 | Push | 0 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on Depaul plus the points over St. John's at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Depaul will be looking to snap its first losing streak of the season as it takes on St. John's on Wednesday night. The Blue Demons won't have a hard time getting up for this one after suffering a 17-point beatdown at the hands of Providence last time out. Prior to that, their other two losses this season came by identical four-point margins against quality opponents in Loyola-Chicago and Butler. St. John's is coming off a loss of its own, dropping a two-point decision against a disappointing Pittsburgh squad. It's worth noting that the Blue Demons send opponents to the free throw line five fewer times per game while also getting there one additional time compared to the Red Storm this season. They also turn the ball over two fewer times despite playing at a slightly slower pace. St. John's has been the slightly better three-point shooting team but has also been the weaker team defending the three. While Depaul's strength of schedule ranks a poor 268th in the country according to KenPom, St. John's has faced the nation's 347th toughest schedule. In other words, there's little separating these two squads yet the Red Storm are being asked to lay a handful of points. Note that home court has meant very little in this particular series lately with the road team taking three consecutive meetings and six of the last nine overall. Take Depaul (10*). |
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01-04-22 | Virginia +4 v. Clemson | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. When these teams last met just two weeks ago in Virginia, Clemson exacted revenge for last year's 35-point beatdown at the hands of the Cavaliers, securing a decisive 17-point victory. Now the shoe is on the other foot as Virginia looks for revenge, noting that the Cavaliers own a terrific 22-11 ATS mark under head coach Tony Bennett when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.9 points in that situation. Also note that the Cavaliers are 32-19 under Bennett as a road underdog. Clemson, meanwhile, checks in a miserable 3-11 ATS, outscored by 6.5 points on average, when coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Virginia (10*). |
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01-04-22 | Grizzlies v. Cavs OVER 218 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. With the Grizzlies riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 127, 114, 104, 118 and 118 points over that stretch it's going to take quite an effort to knock them off course. The Cavs check in having allowed 108, 110, 121 and 104 points over their last four contests so Memphis should have plenty of runway to keep rolling on Tuesday. With that being said, Cleveland has also scored 118 and 108 points in its last two games and as a short home favorite, isn't likely to back down from the challenge here. Note that the 'over' is 10-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road off a double-digit road win over the last two seasons, as is the case here following last night's rout of the Nets. That situation has produced an average total of a whopping 242.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 28-15 with the Cavs playing at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 220.0 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 253 points in Memphis back in October. Take the over (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 139.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Northwestern at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams have been filling up boxscores in the early going this season with Michigan State checking in with an 11-2 record and Northwestern sitting at 8-2. With both teams averaging just shy of 80 points per game I can understand why we're looking at a total in the high-130s on Sunday. I believe it will prove too high, however. This will be the toughest test either team has faced in the last month. I don't think we're going to see Michigan allow Northwestern to get out and push the pace as much as it would like in this home matchup. I do, however, believe that the Wildcats will be able to run their offense, noting that they're turning the ball over only nine times per game while Michigan State has forced just 11 turnovers per contest. While both teams have shot well, neither has put up over-the-top numbers in terms of three-pointers of free throws made per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-6 the last 23 times the Spartans have played on the road after scoring 75+ points in four straight games, as is the case here. Northwestern has had a tendency to struggle in these January Big Ten home games, averaging just 62 points per game while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven home tilts in the first month of the year. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 217.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Three of the Bulls four highest scoring totals of the season have come in their last five games and they're fresh off a thrilling 108-106 win in Indiana yesterday. The fact that both the Bulls and Wizards are coming off 'under' results helps keep Saturday's total in a very reasonable range. Consider that these two teams are just one meeting removed from a game that totalled 263 points. Washington is just three games removed from its second-highest scoring total of the season. While it did allow just 93 points in its most recent game that came against an undermanned Cavs squad due to Covid protocols. Prior to that, the Wiz had given up 117, 117 and 119 points over their last three games. Here, we'll note that the last 28 times the Wiz have played at home off an 'under' result, they have seen an average total of 234.0 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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12-30-21 | St. Joe's v. Richmond -11.5 | Top | 83-56 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
A-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Richmond minus the points over St. Joseph's at 7 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a smash spot for the red hot Richmond Spiders. St. Joseph's comes in off three straight ATS wins. Note the last time it reeled off three consecutive ATS victories it followed that up with a 29-point thumping at the hands of Villanova. Richmond has won six games in a row, going 4-2 ATS over that stretch. The Spiders should offer a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the St. Joe's defense here, noting that they average 10 more three-point attempts per game (26) than the Hawks have faced (16) so far this season. The Spiders are also getting to the free throw line an average of two more times per game while turning the ball over two fewer times and forcing three more turnovers, all while facing a much tougher schedule (top-95 in the country according to KenPom compared to St. Joe's top-250). This is a revenge spot for Richmond after it dropped a stunning 76-73 decision at home last March (as a 15-point favorite). The Spiders clearly overlooked the Hawks on that occasion after beating them by 20+ points on the road earlier in the season. Take Richmond (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Northwestern State v. Baylor UNDER 146 | Top | 68-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern State and Baylor at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Tuesday night. Northwestern State has faced an extremely tough schedule so far this season - the seventh-toughest in the country according to KenPom. It faces another very tough matchup on the road against defending national champion Baylor on Tuesday. I expect it to once again struggle offensively, noting that it checks in averaging just six made three-pointers and 13 free throw attempts per game this season. Baylor meanwhile allows an average of only five made threes per game at home while sending opponents to the free throw line just 13 times per game on average. The question becomes whether Baylor goes off offensively in this one. It scored 94 points in its most recent game against Alcorn State. Prior to that it had scored fewer than 80 points in five of its last six games. Note that the Bears average nine made threes per game and should approach that average here. However, they also average only 10 made free throws per contest. Despite facing a difficult schedule, Northwestern State has managed to force an average of 12 turnovers per game while Baylor has turned it over 10 or more times in six consecutive games heading into this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup on December 17th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. The Jazz are coming off a close call against the undermanned Mavs on Saturday. Three of their six highest point totals allowed this season have come over their last five games. Now they'll have to contend with a Spurs squad that has registered its three highest point totals of the season over its last five contests. Also note, however, that three of San Antonio's four highest point totals given up this season have also come in its last eight games. The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell for Monday's game (back) but he's been in and out of the lineup numerous times over the last couple of seasons so they're accustomed to playing without him. Outside of that, the Jazz and Spurs have remained two of the most unscathed teams when it comes to Covid protocols. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are rolling along right now but they're also in a stretch that will see them play a ton of basketball between now and January 8th. Here, they'll be playing their third game in five nights with a big game against the Warriors looming on Christmas Day. From there they'll play three more times before the end of the year before four games in the first eight days of January. Workload management becomes a factor and I think this is a contest where they can post a victory without going full throttle for four quarters - one of the few opportunities they may have to do so in the next couple of weeks. Oklahoma City is in a back-to-back spot off a big win over the Nuggets last night. Note that the Thunder have allowed two of their five lowest point totals of the season over their last two games. The 'under' is 9-5 in their 14 road games this season, largely due to their own awful scoring average of 96.9 points per game. Off three consecutive victories I'm just not sure we're going to see a peak offensive performance from the Thunder as they look ahead to the holiday break (their next game comes on Boxing Day). Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-21 | Hofstra +6 v. Monmouth | Top | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is Hofstra plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Monmouth Hawks are off to an incredible 12-0 ATS start this season but I think their run of perfection (ATS-wise at least) comes to an end on Wednesday. Hofstra is a quality squad that you just don't hear much about. The Pride have faced the 25th toughest schedule in the country (according to KenPom) but have managed to post a respectable 7-5 SU and 7-3 ATS (in lined games) overall record. They're limiting opponents to just 13 free throw attempts per game and a disciplined brand of defense will be key against a Monmouth squad that lives at the line, getting there 19 times per game this season. The Pride also turn the ball over three fewer times than the Hawks while forcing two additional turnovers per contest. Monmouth's offense has benefited from some sharp shooting from beyond the arc, particularly at home where it knocks down over 40% of its three-point attempts. Hofstra is capable of matching it in that regard, however, averaging 10 made threes per game. The Pride should offer the Hawks a bit of a change of pace here as they average 29 three-point attempts per game - five north of the 24 Monmouth has seen on average. These two teams met last December as well with Hofstra scoring 96 points in an eight-point road win (as a -1.5 favorite). Look for Speedy Claxton's squad to give red hot Monmouth a serious run on Wednesday night. Take Hofstra (10*). |
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12-21-21 | Suns -7 v. Lakers | Top | 108-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can't help but think this game means very little to the Lakers in the grand scheme of things. They know they can't match up with the Suns right now, not with Anthony Davis among those sidelined and Lebron James less than 100% healthy. The Suns welcomed Devin Booker back on Sunday and he filled the statsheet in only 26 minutes of action. While Booker was sidelined we saw the Suns continue to stack up wins with a number of other players picking up the scoring slack in his absence. I believe Phoenix is better for it. The Suns have been a terrific positive momentum play in recent years, going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following consecutive double-digit wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a miserable 20-36 ATS in their last 56 home games and limp into this game off a 1-2 road trip in which the only win came against a Luka-less Mavs squad. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has also covered the spread in 11 straight meetings in this series. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-19-21 | Dartmouth +12 v. California | Top | 55-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Darmouth plus the points over California at 4 pm et on Sunday. Dartmouth gave Stanford everything it could handle on Friday night before fading in overtime in an 11-point loss. The eventual lopsided nature of that game ends up providing us with some value here as the Big Green should bring plenty of confidence as a decided underdog at Cal on Sunday. Note that Dartmouth ranks 77th in the nation in terms of strength of schedule. Cal checks in 119th. Coming off consecutive blowout wins to open their four-game homestand it would be easy for the Bears to overlook the Big Green here. That would be a mistake as Dartmouth can hang thanks to its terrific outside shooting (10 made threes per game on 37.2% shooting from beyond the arc). The knock on the Big Green is their inability to get to the free throw line with much consistency (they average only 11 attempts per game). However, they do knock down nearly 75% of their free throw attempts and it's not as if Cal has been much better in that regard, averaging 15 trips to the charity stripe per contest. Cal also averages only five made threes per contest. Additionally, Dartmouth forces three more turnovers per game while the two teams are on par in terms of turnovers lost, averaging 12 each. While I'm not about to call for the outright upset, I do think Dartmouth can take this one down to the wire. Take Dartmouth (10*). |
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12-17-21 | Hornets v. Blazers OVER 227 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is the highest total on Friday's NBA board (at the time of writing) and it is that way for a reason in my opinion. The Hornets are getting involved in track meet after track meet right now. Five of their nine highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last seven games. That's come at the expense of their defense, however, as they've also allowed six of their nine highest point totals of the season in their last nine games. Here, they'll be facing a desperate Blazers squad that has lost seven games in a row, despite welcoming Damian Lillard back to the lineup late last week. Since his return, they've scored 111, 107 and 103 points but lost all three games. After shooting a miserable 37.8% from the field in Wednesday's 10-point loss against Memphis, I expect a positive response here. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 the last 18 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 233.0 points. The 'over' is also 20-8 the last 28 times they've sought revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, with that spot producing an average total of 233.8 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Wizards v. Suns -8.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of six of their last seven games, going 0-6-1 ATS over that stretch. Thursday's date with the Suns, on a back-to-back no less, doesn't figure to be the 'get right' spot they're looking for. Phoenix is still without Devin Booker although his return is getting closer. The Suns keep rolling along regardless, winners of three of their last four games despite missing DeAndre Ayton for part of that stretch as well. Ayton returned on Tuesday and played a big part in a 111-107 overtime win in Portland. I don't expect the Suns to face nearly as much resistance against the Wiz on Thursday. Washington got 29 points from Deni Avdija and Montresz Harrell off the bench and Bradley Beal scored 30 points for the first time in five games (and only the fourth time this season) yet still lost by 14 points in Sacramento last night. Here, we'll note that Washington has allowed a whopping 120.9 points per game the last 51 times it has played consecutive road games, as is the case here as it continues a long six-game trip. The Suns, meanwhile, are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 home games following a win, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Pacers v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo among others on Wednesday night. No one is going to feel sorry for the defending champs though. This game opens a six-game in 11-day stretch for Milwaukee. Off a double-digit loss in Boston two nights ago, I look for the Bucks to bounce back on their home floor. The Pacers check in having won three of their last four games. All three of those wins came in the role of favorite. They lost by two points against the Warriors two nights ago so most will expect them to have little trouble taking the undermanned Bucks down to the wire in this one as well. I'm not so sure. Milwaukee has owned the Central Division lately, going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 matchups against divisional foes. It has also taken six straight meetings against Indiana, winning all six of those games by at least nine points. Note that the Pacers check in a miserable 3-10 on the road this season. The fact that Giannis will miss this game isn't lost on the oddsmakers. The Bucks are still being favored for a reason in my opinion. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns 111-105 loss to the Paul George-less Clippers last night. Phoenix has lost only five games all season but two of those have come in its last four games. Going back to the start of 2020, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings in this series. Phoenix won here in Portland by a 127-121 score last March but that was on the strength of a lights-out 59% shooting performance. The Suns of course won't have the services of Devin Booker once again for this one. DeAndre Ayton missed last night's game as well and is questionable to return here. Regardless whether he plays, I believe the Suns will be in tough trying to hold down a Blazers team that will be looking to snap a five-game losing streak. Damian Lillard returned to the lineup on Sunday but it wasn't enough as Portland fell by five points against Minnesota. Lillard posted a 24/11/6 line in 36 minutes on Sunday so he certainly seemed no worse for wear in his first game back. A lot of bettors got behind the Blazers in that contest and certainly came away discouraged. I believe it's the wrong move jumping ship here, however. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-13-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Suns have kept rolling without Devin Booker, they've been getting it done a little differently - or perhaps not as their defense has been outstanding going back to last season, it's just that it has sometimes taken a back seat to their terrific offense. Here, we'll note that the Suns have posted two of their five lowest-scoring outputs of the season over their last five games. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last six contests overall. Only once over their last five games have they given up more than 104 points - that coming in a rematch against the Warriors after defeating them three nights earlier. The Clippers have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games. Two of their nine lowest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last four contests. With Paul George likely to sit once again due to an elbow injury, I'm not sure they'll be interested in getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with the Suns. These two teams are certainly very familiar with one another, noting that this will be the 10th meeting in the series going back to the start of last season with five of the previous nine staying 'under' the total including three of four matchups here in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rhode Island and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. We won with Wisconsin-Milwaukee in its most recent game as it stayed inside the double-digit pointspread on the road against Pac-12 squad Colorado. Here, I'll call for another relatively low-scoring affair (that loss to Colorado totalled just 119 points) as the Panthers host Rhode Island on Monday. The Rams have seen the 'under' cash in three consecutive games. Interestingly, the Rams are attempting only 15 three-pointers per game and I don't anticipate shifting course here on Monday. What they have done is do an excellent job of getting to the free throw line, doing so 20 times per game. Here, though, they'll face a Wisconsin-Milwaukee squad that has done a good job of limiting opponents' attempts from the charity stripe, giving up just 15 per game. That's not to mention the fact that the Panthers are allowing opponents to shoot just 39.2% from the field. They haven't guarded the perimeter particularly well, but again they'll be facing a Rams squad that tends to operate lower in the half court. I don't anticipate either team looking to push the pace too much in this one, instead look for both sides to look to run their offense, ultimately eating clock and helping the final score stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Pelicans v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Spurs in Thursday's win over the Nuggets and then successfully faded them in last night's blowout loss in the quick rematch. Here, I'll get behind the Spurs again as they stay home to face the Pelicans on Sunday night. New Orleans is coming off a win over Detroit on Friday, snapping a brief two-game losing streak. Now the Pelicans hit the road where they're just 4-11 this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.6 points. Note that they're a long-term loser at 59-85 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Spurs meanwhile are 53-29 ATS when playing at home off a loss by 15+ points, which is the situation they're in tonight off last night's loss to the Nuggets. While they're just 5-8 SU at home this season, they've actually managed to outscore the opposition on average so the margin between a winning and losing record is fairly slim. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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12-11-21 | Nuggets +1 v. Spurs | Top | 127-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets opened as favorites in the front half of this two-game set in San Antonio on Thursday but the line quickly shifted in favor of the Spurs. We won with San Antonio in that contest but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Nuggets as they look for quick revenge on Saturday. Denver was never really all that competitive in Thursday's game, even if it did manage to keep things relatively close in the third quarter. Keep in mind, the Nuggets were playing the second of back-to-back nights after prevailing in overtime in New Orleans the night before. Here, the Spurs won't have the same rest advantage and that should be a difference-maker. The Nuggets did get a triple-double from Nikola Jokic in Thursday's loss. He's being asked to shoulder a lot of the offensive load with a number of key cogs missing due to injury. Road-weary or not, the Nuggets can ill-afford another slip-up here as they wrap up a seven-game road trip. Denver entered Friday's action a full six games back of the Jazz in the Northwest Division. The Spurs have won just once in their last three games on the heels of a four-game winning streak. They entered Friday as one of only four Western Conference teams that have yet to reach 10 wins on the season. Take Denver (10*). |
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12-09-21 | Nuggets v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Denver at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Nuggets here after they rallied for an overtime win in New Orleans last night. Note that Denver hasn't posted consecutive wins since posting five straight victories back in early November. The Spurs, meanwhile, saw their four-game winning streak come to an end in Phoenix on Monday before dropping a double-digit decision at home against the Knicks the next night. I look for them to regain their footing here, noting that they've gone 30-15 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here after they lost by six points in Denver back in October. The Nuggets on the other hand are a woeful 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off a road win. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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12-08-21 | Drake -20 v. Nebraska-Omaha | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Drake minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's game on extended ATS losing streaks but I certainly feel that Drake is in better position to end its skid in this spot. The Bulldogs couldn't have played much better in their last two games but the opposition ended up shooting well and keeping them from ATS victories (they did win both of those games straight-up). In those two contests, Drake committed just 16 turnovers and shot 45.7% from the field. By contrast, Omaha has turned the ball over a whopping 31 times over its last two contests. It did manage to shoot better than 47% from the field last time out but that was against a 'defense-optional' Eastern Washington squad. Omaha remains one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging just 59.1 points per game on 36.5% shooting this season. Drake has a chance to be the class of an ultra-competitive Missouri Valley Conference this season with five returning starters. Don't be fooled by the Bulldogs modest 5-3 record as their three losses came against potential NCAA Tournament teams in Belmont, Alabama and North Texas. Take Drake (10*). |
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12-08-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs enter this game off a third straight relatively low-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 102-99 score at home against Brooklyn. Noting that the 'over' is 74-50 with the Mavs playing on the road off three or more consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest that finds its way 'over' the total on Wednesday in Memphis. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' cash in their last two games. With that being said, two of their own four highest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last five contests. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-1 with the Grizzlies in a home favorite role this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.9 points. These two teams just met last week with the Grizzlies winning by a 97-90 score in Dallas. The Grizz didn't have to score a whole lot to secure the win on that night as Dallas was without Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic. Both returned to the lineup last night. The last time these two teams met in Memphis they combined to score a whopping 237 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's been an eventful road trip for the Celtics already as they've been involved in a pair of very high-scoring games against the Jazz and Blazers, managing to earn a 1-1 split thanks to a 145-point explosion last time out in Portland. Here, I like the Lakers to get back on track following a tough loss to the Clippers and gain an ounce of revenge in the process after suffering a lopsided loss in Boston earlier this season. Note that Los Angeles has managed to follow each of its last three losses with wins and this is certainly a key spot before playing five of its next six games on the road. The Lakers are actually in a double-revenge spot here after dropping the last meeting last season as well by a 121-113 score here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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12-06-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 216 | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Nuggets enter this game riding a seven-game 'over' streak and I look for that trend to continue on Monday. Two of Denver's three highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 120 points in Miami and 113 in New York. Now it heads to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that has allowed two of its three highest point totals of the season over its last three games. On the flip side of that, two of the Bulls three highest scoring performances of the campaign have also come in their last three games. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season with the first producing 222 points back on November 19th in Denver. The last time they met here in Chicago they combined to score 230 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-04-21 | Iowa State v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Iowa State at 9 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Creighton as it hosts undefeated Iowa State on Saturday night. We actually won with the Cyclones in their outright upset win over Xavier in last week's NIT Tip-off Tournament in Brooklyn. They're off to an impressive 7-0 start that also includes a victory over a team that entered the season with National Title aspirations in Memphis. Still, I expect the Blue Jays to prove to be too much for the Cyclones on this night. Creighton has just one loss on the season and while it checks in with a poor 3-5 ATS record it was asked to lay more points than it is here tonight in four of those five previous ATS defeats. The Blue Jays do come in with some positive momentum after laying waste to a quality North Dakota State team last time out, winning by 25 points as eight-point favorites. While Creighton is known for its offense, it has put on a defensive clinic here at home this season, holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 35.3% shooting. Here, we'll note that Creighton is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games after giving up 60 or less points, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 20.5 points. Take Creighton (10*). |
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12-03-21 | Fairfield v. Canisius OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Canisius at 7 pm et on Friday. We've made just one play involving either of these teams this season and it was on the 'under' in Fairfield's 83-78 win over Stony Brook last week. In case you were wondering, we weren't close on that play as the final score eclipsed the total by 17 points. I won't make the same mistake again here. Fairfield's offense wasn't good last season but with virtually the entire squad returning there was plenty of potential entering the 2021-22 campaign. So far so good, as the Stags have scored 70+ points in five of six games and check in shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from three-point range. They don't figure to face much resistance against Canisius as the Golden Griffins have allowed the opposition to shoot just shy of 47% from the field and may face a bit of a system shock here as the Stags average seven more three-point attempts than what they've faced so far this season. The fact that Canisius managed to score 75 points despite shooting sub 38% from the field against Cornell last time out is telling. The Griffins are playing at a fast pace, hoisting up a whopping 65 field goal attempts per game including 32 from three-point range. There's reason to believe they can go off offensively in this one against a Fairfield squad that has allowed anyone with a pulse to shoot 50% or better this season. This has the makings of a big game for super sixth-man Malek Green of Canisius. He's still working his way back to 100% health after foot surgery last season. He's averaging 16.6 points per game in just over 24 minutes per game this season and with the Griffins having not played since Sunday should see plenty of action in this one. Key cog Armon Harried shot a miserable 1-for-10 from the field against Cornell but should bounce back here. He's just one game removed from a 22-point effort against Coppin State. Virtually all trends point to an 'under' result here but I'm confident enough that both teams have made enough progression offensively that we could be in for a track meet on Friday night. With both projected to finish in the bottom half of the MAAC standings they can certainly use all the wins they can get - make no mistake, this is an important conference opener for both teams. I expect both to come in with an aggressive mentality, knowing they'll likely need to put up 70+ points to prevail. While the last meeting between these teams totaled only 119 points, it featured just seven made three-pointers. The two teams are combining to average 20 made threes per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks have been extremely uneven this season. They check into Thursday's showdown against the division-rival Bulls sporting an 11-10 overall record. They have managed to split a pair of meetings with the Bulls, both in Chicago, with the lone loss coming by a single point. I simply feel that the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this one. Chicago couldn't miss in Tuesday's blowout home win over the Hornets. The Bulls shot just shy of 60% from the field in that game. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. The Knicks allowed the Nets to shoot better than 48% two nights ago - only the third time this season they've yielded north of 48% shooting. The last two times they did so, they held their next opponent to just 38.5% and 35.5% shooting, going 2-0 SU and ATS in those two contests. Here, we'll note that the Knicks are an incredible 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games with a pointspread between +3 and -3, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.2 points. They're also 37-19 ATS in their last 56 games when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent. While New York is likely to be without R.J. Barrett in this one that's perhaps not as big of a concern as it's being made out to be as Barrett has struggled, topping out at 17 points in his last 12 games after scoring 20 points or more in his previous five contests. Take New York (10*). |
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12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder -3 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's never easy to back a team after it just got hammered by the same opponent two nights earlier, but that's what we're going to do with the Thunder on Wednesday. Houston rolled to a 102-89 win over Oklahoma City on Monday - marking its third straight victory. Keep in mind, all three of those wins came at home. The Rockets check in 0-11 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 12.5 points this season. The Thunder enter this contest riding a six-game losing streak but Monday's blowout loss was actually their first ATS loss in their last seven games. After shooting a woeful 35.6% from the field on Monday, I look for a strong bounce-back performance here as the schedule only gets tougher with a three-game road trip up next. Note that the Rockets are just 12-23 ATS the last 35 times they've come off an ATS victory, outscored by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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12-01-21 | South Carolina v. Coastal Carolina +6.5 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. While the Coastal Carolina football program has been making most of the noise going back to last season, the basketball team can play as well. The Chanticleers check in just 2-2 on the season but I expect them to give South Carolina a run on Wednesday night. The Gamecocks have reeled off four straight wins, going 3-1 ATS in the process. It's worth noting though that they're turning the ball over 17 times a game compared to Coastal Carolina's average of only 10. Riding a winning streak and with a big showdown against Georgetown on deck, it would be easy for the relatively inexperienced to overlook the Chanticleers here. Note that South Carolina has been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in its last 15 games when coming off a win and has also been outscored by 3.0 points on average in its last 21 lined road contests. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). |
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11-27-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I think a lot of bettors are spooked when it comes to the Jazz and can you really blame them after Utah dropped a stunning 98-97 decision against these same Pelicans on Friday as a 13.5-point favorite. I'm not overly concerned about the Jazz's uneven play recently and fully expect them to bounce back with a strong performance on Saturday night. Last night's game really amounted to a 'perfect storm' of sorts for the Jazz. Rudy Gobert scored only nine points. Donovan Mitchell shot 6-of-21 from the field. Jordan Clarkson - usually a steady contributor off the bench - shot 3-of-12 and managed only seven points. There was really nothing particularly special about New Orleans' performance. It scored right around its season average on the road. While the Pelicans have now won consecutive games, keep in mind, this is a team that has lost games by 16 points in Chicago, 13 points in Sacramento, 41 points in Golden State, 16 points in Dallas, 15 points in Miami, 17 points in Indiana...you get the picture. Meanwhile, half of Utah's six home victories this season have come by at least 16 points. The Jazz check in a solid 65-42 ATS when playing at home off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Utah (10*). |
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11-26-21 | Oklahoma State v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma State and Oral Roberts at 4 pm et on Friday. You might be hard-pressed to find a worse defensive team than Oral Roberts at this given moment in time. In two games against Division-I opponents, it ranks 343rd in the country in opponents floor percentage. Outside of that it has faced a laundry list of no-name schools to put it mildly. Now it has to contend with a red hot Oklahoma State squad that has hung 80+ points on it in each of the last two meetings over the last two years and checks in off a 96-point effort against Charleston. Oral Roberts knows it is going to have to light up the scoreboard in order to keep pace in this one, and I think it can. Note that the Cowboys opponents have averaged just 20 three-point attempts per game so far this season. Oral Roberts averages 34. In its last two matchups against Oklahoma State, ORU hoisted up 32 and 33 three-point attempts, scoring 75 and 78 points in those two contests. The 75-point effort came despite shooting a woeful 33.8% overall and 21.9% from beyond the arc in the 2019 matchup. The Cowboys ride into this game on a three-game 'over' streak and I think it continues for at least one more game. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Auburn v. Loyola-Chicago +2.5 | Top | 62-53 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Auburn at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. The Ramblers fell just short on a bucket in the final seconds against favored Michigan State yesterday afternoon (but did manage the narrow cover). They'll certainly want to come away from this tournament with something and I like their chances of picking up a win against Auburn, which is fresh off an emotionally and physically draining overtime loss at the hands of UConn yesterday afternoon. Credit Loyola-Chicago to sticking to its guns and turning yesterday's game against Michigan State into somewhat of a slugfest. The Ramblers fell behind 9-0 right out of the gate in that one but quickly rallied and ultimately took the Spartans right down to the wire. That's what we want to see from a mid-major in an early statement game against a top level opponent. The case can certainly be made that Michigan State is by no means a national title contender (not at this point anyway) but it was a test nonetheless - one that Loyola-Chicago passed as far as I'm concerned. Now comes and excellent chance for the Ramblers to bounce right back and pick up a victory that would certainly look good on their resume come March. Auburn certainly entered this tournament with its eyes on a championship and is obviously disappointed to be playing in the third-place game on Thursday. I feel the Tigers are a little overrated at this point, carrying a number-19 ranking into this tournament despite having not really faced anyone of true substance. I don't think they're going to like the type of game that the Ramblers will undoubtedly present them with here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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11-23-21 | Nuggets +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind bettors lining up to back the Blazers in this 'revenge' spot at home after suffering a 29-point loss in Denver earlier this month. In fact, Portland is in a 'triple-revenge' spot having dropped three straight meetings in this series going back to last June's playoff series. With that being said, with our without Nikola Jokic, I look for the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. We fell just short fading the Blazers in their last game - also as a home favorite against the undermanned 76ers. Philadelphia kept that game close throughout but ultimately missed the cover thanks to a couple of made free throws in the closing seconds. Close wins have been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. They enter this contest riding a season-high three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost a season-high four in a row, including a lopsided defeat in Phoenix on Sunday. Consecutive stinkers haven't been commonplace when it comes to Denver, however. Note that the Nuggets are 14-4 ATS the last 18 times they've come off four ATS losses in their last five games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.1 points on average in that situation. I mentioned the 'revenge' angle earlier. Well, the Blazers have actually been outscored by 1.5 points on average the last 76 times they've been in a 'revenge' spot against an opponent. Also note that Portland has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 points after winning four or five of its last six games ATS over the last 2+ seasons (38-game sample size). Take Denver (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Valparaiso +7 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
CBB Tournament Game of the Month. My selection is on Valparaiso plus the points over Jacksonville State at 8 pm et on Monday (game was delayed due to leak in the roof). Valpo is still looking for its first victory as the Beacons (formerly the Crusaders). I think it has a shot at getting it on Monday, however. Off a narrow missed cover as a road underdog against Stanford, here we'll note that Valpo has gone an incredible 43-15 ATS in its last 58 games when coming off a double-digit road loss. The Beacons are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after allowing 60 points or less going back over the last 2+ seasons. Considering the Beacons don't have a lot of returning talent I see it as a positive that they've shot better than 41% from the field in each of their first three games this season. Jacksonville State is off to a 1-2 start with two of its three games decided by four points or less. Note that it is shooting just 67% from the free throw line and has benefited from facing three opponents that have been ice cold from the field (yes, JSU's defense has contributed to that but still). Note that JSU has been outscored by an average margin of 1.3 points after losing two of its last three games dealing with a 123-game sample size. Take Valparaiso (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Monday. When these two teams last squared off in Charlotte last week, the Hornets cruised to a low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) 97-87 victory. Not surprisingly, we're dealing with a lower total this time around, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. Note that the 'over' is 23-12 with the Wizards seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.1 points. Also note that the Wiz average north of 119 points per game when playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 234.8 points in that spot. The Hornets shot just 42.2% from the field in their last game - a 115-105 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. They're averaging 112.5 points in four previous games following a sub-43% shooting performance this season. The last time we saw these two teams match up in Washington there were 225 total points and we were dealing with a total set in the 230's. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 209.5 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We already won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season. With the scene shifting to Brooklyn for the rematch on Friday night, I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play. Unders have dominated the NBA landscape so far this season so it's no surprise that we're dealing with another relatively low total for this one. I believe it will prove too low, noting that the Nets have been trending to the 'over' after reeling off seven straight 'under' results to open the campaign. The 'over' has now cashed in six of the Nets last nine contests. This sets up as a smash spot for the Nets offense, noting that they've scored 122, 129, 113 and 123 points in four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. The Magic are certainly ripe for a letdown after posting their second victory over the Knicks at MSG this season two nights ago. They held New York under 100 points in that game. Keep in mind, Orlando is by no means an elite defensive team. Quite the opposite in fact. Prior to Wednesday's performance it had allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. On the flip side, the Magic were held to only 90 points in the first matchup between these two teams this season (as I mentioned, that game still went 'over' the total and we're dealing with an even lower total on Friday). Interestingly, the Magic have alternated good and bad offensive efforts against Brooklyn. Since the start of last season Orlando has scored 115, 92, 121 and 90 points in four matchups with the Nets. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Spurs first game of their current three-game road trip this past Sunday against the Lakers and were certainly fortunate to do so, cashing that ticket by a single point. San Antonio followed up that game with another low-scoring result against the Clippers. Now we're seeing the lowest posted total of the trip, despite the fact that I believe this sets up as a the highest-scoring affair. While San Antonio is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring only 92 points in a blowout loss against the Clippers, I do think it is well-positioned to bounce back here. First of all, it is catching Minnesota in a back-to-back spot off a 107-97 win over Sacramento last night. The T'Wolves could certainly fall victim to being 'fat and happy' in this spot after holding the Suns and T'Wolves to 37.6% and 36.6% shooting to open their current homestand. I don't believe the T'Wolves are nearly as good of a defensive team as they've shown. They've caught some opponents in favorable situations and I think it's been more of the case of those opponents having off shooting nights than anything else. I don't expect the Spurs to suffer from such shooting woes tonight, noting that they shoot just shy of 45% as a team on the road this season and have shot worse than 43% just once in their last eight games and on only two previous occasions this entire season. On the flip side, San Antonio is by no means an elite defensive team. In fact, the Spurs have allowed five opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field this season. While Minnesota scored 'only' 107 points in last night's victory, it did shoot 50% from the field and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance in a game that projects to be played at a quicker pace. Take the over (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem hesitant to buy into the Hornets, despite their current three-game winning streak, having most recently taken down the red hot Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Perhaps that shouldn't come as a surprise as Charlotte is just a week removed from a five-game losing streak. Here, I look for the Hornets to 'handle their business' in a home game against the improved and streaking Wizards. Washington checks into this game off five straight wins. Keep in mind, the Wizards were favored in four of those games and the other was a pk'em. Here, we'll note that the Wiz are long-term losers when playing on the road off three ATS wins in their last four games, as is the case here, having gone 82-115 ATS. They're also a miserable 174-219 ATS when coming off consecutive straight-up victories. These two teams met three times last season with Washington winning only once (but not covering) and that victory came at home. To find the last time the Wiz won a game here in Charlotte you would have to go all the way back to 2017. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The NBA season got off to a low-scoring start for sure. Both of these teams were a part of that for sure as the Warriors opened with seven of their first eight games going 'under' the total while the Nets started the campaign with seven consecutive 'under' results. Since then, we've seen a different story unfold, however. The 'over' has cashed in three of the Warriors last five games and four of the Nets last five contests, including each of the last three. With that being said, Golden State is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Charlotte as it fell by a 106-102 score. That leaves us with a very reasonable total in Tuesday's matchup in Brooklyn, especially when you consider last season's two meetings saw closing totals of 238 and 246 points with both of those games surpassing the total we're working with tonight. I mentioned the Nets roll into this game on a three-game 'over' streak. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 18-8 the last 26 times they've come off two or more straight 'over' results, producing an average total of 236.1 points in that situation. While there are plenty of 'under' trends at play when it comes to the Warriors, the majority of those situations have still produced higher average totals than we're working with on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Southern Utah +11 v. St. Mary's | Top | 51-70 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Southern Utah plus the points over St. Mary's at 10 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's is poised to take a step forward after a rare down year in 2020-21 but it certainly can't afford to sleep on a Southern Utah squad that went 20-4 last season and brings pretty much everyone that matters back into the fold. The Thunderbirds are coming off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite at Dixie State, however, and with that in mind, I feel they're undervalued in this matchup against what has long been considered a 'name brand' program in St. Mary's. This game will feature a sharp contrast in styles as Southern Utah boasts an explosive offense and will look to push the pace. St. Mary's is more adept at slowing things down. The Gaels look to eliminate passing lanes and force turnovers at the defensive end of the floor. I'm not convinced they'll have an easy time doing so against a seasoned Thunderbirds squad that excels on dribble handoffs and driving to the basket. Note that St. Mary's has only outscored opponents by 6.9 points on average when coming off consecutive wins over the last 2+ seasons (26-game sample size). That's close to where I feel this line should be sitting but with the Gaels 2-0 off back-to-back comfortable wins and Southern Utah fresh off the aforementioned upset loss to little-known Dixie State, we're being given a fairly generous cushion. Take Southern Utah (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 212 | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over between Sacramento and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Kings have somewhat surprisingly trended toward the 'under' this season and are coming off another low-scoring result in a narrow two-point loss in Oklahoma City on Friday. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from a while 136-117 loss in San Antonio. Here, we'll note that Sacramento road games have totaled an average of 220.9 points over the last 2+ seasons. The Kings lone trip to Detroit last season produced 217 points. The Pistons two best offensive showings of the season have come in their last three games as they put up 112 and 127 points in wins over Houston and Toronto, respectively. Note that they've allowed an average of 115.4 points when coming off a victory going back to last season, with those contests producing an average total of 217.7 points. I like the fact that Detroit shook out of its shooting slump by knocking down an incredible 54.4% of its shots against the Raptors on Saturday and now gets to face a Kings squad that has been vulnerable defensively on its current road trip and has also been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 and 95 field goal attempts in its last two contests. I simply feel the erratic nature of the two offenses in the early going this season is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UC-Riverside and Arizona State at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Expectations are fairly high for both of these teams although Arizona State certainly boasts the loftier goals. The Sun Devils are hoping that a number of key transfers can help them rebound from a disastrous Covid-tinged 2020-21 season. Meanwhile, Riverside is hoping to build on the progress it made during a big 'step up' campaign last season. The Highlanders will once again hang their hats on their defensive play, which should be every bit as sound as it was a year ago. They drew a tough season-opening matchup on Tuesday but still managed to hold their own, allowing only 66 points while limiting San Diego State to 49 field goal attempts. The problem was their own three-point shots weren't falling (6-of-22 from three-point range) in an eventual 13-point loss as a 12.5-point underdog. Arizona State will look to play fast, just as it always has under Bobby Hurley. I do think the Highlanders are capable of frustrating the Sun Devils a bit in that regard though. Like Riverside, Arizona State struggled from beyond the arc in its season-opener, knocking down only 7-of-26 three-point attempts. The Sun Devils ultimately scored 76 points against Portland on Tuesday, but only managed to do so thanks to hoisting up 66 shots - a number I'm not convinced they can approach here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Nets v. Magic OVER 209.5 | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Buffalo +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Michigan at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Expectations are sky-high once again in Ann Arbor this season and the Wolverines are certainly a legitimate national title contender. With that being said, I do think an experienced, ultra-talented Buffalo squad is capable of giving them a run here in their season-opener on Wednesday. The Bulls could turn out to be 'best in class' in the MAC this season although Ohio may have something to say about that. This is an excellent measuring stick game right out of the gate and I expect the Bulls to relish the opportunity. Four starters return to Buffalo and Jim Whitesell's group should once again push the pace at every opportunity, perhaps catching the Wolverines a little off guard here in the first game of the season. Keep in mind, for as dominant as Michigan was last season, it opened the campaign by winning home games against Bowling Green and Oakland by just 14 and 10-point margins, respectively. In time, the Wolverines should once again evolve into an elite rim and perimeter defending team but Buffalo is a tough opening draw before it has a chance to settle in, especially with plenty of new faces in the lineup. While Buffalo is known for its up-tempo, explosive offense, it can play some defense as well. In fact, the Bulls were the best defensive squad in the MAC last year. Last season's MAC Defensive Player of the Year, Josh Mballa is back in the fold to anchor the Bulls defensive sets. While a 1-0 start should be well within reach for the Wolverines, this should be a test. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Heat v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 9:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the Heat on Monday night. Miami will be playing its fourth game in the last seven nights, in three different cities. The Heat needed every bit of their blistering 60.3% shooting performance to take down the Jazz at home on Saturday, ultimately winning that game by three points. It's worth noting that Miami was favored by a virtually identical pointspread to tonight in its last road game against Dallas. In that situation, the Heat were playing on two days' rest and keep in mind, that's the same Mavs squad that the Nuggets beat by 31 points earlier this season. Here, I like the fact that the Heat are in line for some offensive regression following that ridiculous shooting performance on Saturday while the Nuggets are coming off a sleepy effort against the lowly Rockets in which they shot just 40.4% in a matinee affair on Saturday. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to miss this game for Denver but he's been somewhat disappointing this season anyway, topping out at 15 points and that came in the season-opener. Note that the Nuggets are 31-14 ATS the last 45 times they've come off three consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.2 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). |
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11-03-21 | Raptors v. Wizards -3 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We successfully faded the Wizards in their last game as they fell by seven points in Atlanta. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Wiz as they return home to host a Raptors squad they had their way with earlier this season. Toronto is coming off a huge win in New York on Monday, fueled by a career night from O.G. Anunoby. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Note that while the Raps have now won four games in a row, here they find themselves in a spot that has seen them go a miserable 1-9 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Washington is an excellent positive momentum play as it has posted an incredible 15-1 ATS record after winning three of its last four games over the last season-plus, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average in that spot. Of course, these two teams met in the season-opener with the Wizards rolling to a 98-83 victory. Washington has now taken consecutive meetings against the Raptors after an extended run of futility in the series. While the Raps have a rather thin margin of error in my opinion, the Wiz have shown the ability to win in a variety of ways. This past Saturday they prevailed in overtime against the Celtics despite shooting a woeful 36.5% in the game. Last week they beat the Hawks here at home even with Atlanta shooting a scorching 54.5% from the field. As for the Raps, they've only managed to outscore the opposition by a combined 21 points during their current four-game winning streak. They've shot better than 48% from the field just once this season and needed to knock down every shot in that game as they won by just a single point, at home no less, against the lowly Magic. Here, we'll play against Toronto supported by a situation that has gone 74-39 ATS in which we fade underdog sides coming off consecutive outright underdog wins playing for the sixth time (or more) in the last 10 days. That situation has gone 10-3 ATS over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after these two teams were involved in exactly the opposite type of contest two nights ago (the Lakers won that game 95-85). Credit the Lakers for stepping up defensively after a rough stretch earlier in the season. We used their early high-scoring results to our advantage last Friday night as we cashed the 'under' in their victory over the Cavaliers. I'm still not sold on the Lakers being an elite defensive team, however, while on the flip side we know they have the offensive talent to go off on any given night and this is certainly a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Speaking of elite defensive teams, Houston won't be mistaken for one any time soon. They know they're going to need to score a lot more than they did on Sunday in order to take something away from this two-game set in Los Angeles. That's because they're certainly not likely to hold the Lakers to sub-41% shooting again on Tuesday. Keep in mind, just two games back Houston allowed 122 points on better than 48% shooting against the Jazz, at home no less. Here, we find the 'over' having gone 12-3 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen an average total of 223 points after consecutive home wins going back to last season (10-game sample size). Finally, I'll note that while Sunday's matchup was a bit of a slog, three meetings between these two teams last season totaled 222, 217 and 246 points (that was the lone matchup here in Los Angeles). Take the over (10*). |
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