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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke OVER 151 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. This will be the third meeting between these rivals this season with the previous two both sailing 'over' the total we're working with on Saturday. Given the way both teams have played leading up to and in this tournament, barring one of both sides going ice cold shooting the ball, I see no other way to go but the 'over' again here in their much-anticipated Final Four showdown. We missed with the 'over' in the Tar Heels most recent game - a 69-49 rout of an overmatched St. Peter's squad last Sunday. The Peacocks actually got off 60 field goal attempts in that game but knocked down only 18 of them in the blowout loss. North Carolina has now yielded its opponents 73, 81 (OT game against Baylor), 62 and 60 FG attempts in four games in this tournament. Prior to its Elite Eight matchup, UNC had allowed 25+ made field goals in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the Tar Heels have made good on 25+ field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While not all of their recent opponents have shot well, the Blue Devils have essentially been a 'swinging door' defensively, allowing 62+ field goal attempts in eight consecutive games. Seven of their last eight opponents have knocked down 26+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-1-1 over that stretch. Of course, from an offensive standpoint, few are doing it better than the Blue Devils right now as they've made good on 30, 32, 28 and 29 field goals in their first four games in this tournament. Duke has scored 78+ points in nine of its last 10 games overall. Its lone 'under' result over that stretch came in a game where its opening round opponents in this tourney, Cal-State Fullerton, shot a woeful 24-of-64 from the field. With UNC allowing 65 field goal attempts per game away from home this season, not to mention eight made threes per contest, I believe the door is open for Duke to set the pace on Saturday. Meanwhile, we haven't seen UNC's best offensively over the last couple of games but we know its capable of keeping up here, noting that it scored a whopping 95 points in a stunning victory in Coach K's final game at Cameron Indoor back on March 5th. Take the over (10*). |
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03-30-22 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 228 | Top | 117-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. C.J. McCollum will make his return to Portland as a member of the Pelicans after being dealt from the Blazers prior to the trade deadline. While the Blazers are going nowhere this season, I do think they get up for this game and we see an up-tempo affair on Wednesday night. We know what we're going to get from New Orleans right now. The Pelicans have scored 102+ points in 20 consecutive games and have made good on 40+ field goals in 15 straight contests. The Blazers don't figure to do much to stand in their way here, noting they've allowed 40+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Albeit aided by overtime, they allowed 48-of-90 shooting and 134 points against an undermanned Thunder squad last time out. Despite a depleted roster, Portland has managed to push the pace a little more than it had been recently over its last couple of games, attempting 93 and 99 field goal attempts in regulation time in those two contests. The Blazers have generally been alternating good and bad offensive efforts lately, but again, I expect them to get up for this one, especially as they look to salvage something from this five-game homestand (they're 0-4 so far). While New Orleans has been limiting its opponents' tempo for the most part, it is also allowing the opposition to shoot for a lofty percentage. Note that four of the Pelicans last five opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier OVER 142 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 127 h 30 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Bonaventure and Xavier at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Xavier's most recent game - a 75-73 NIT quarter-final victory over Vanderbilt. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Musketeers take on St. Bonaventure in NIT semi-final action on Tuesday. Xavier continues to allow the opposition to get off plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 60, 65, 64, 60, 64 and 59 field goal attempts over its last six games. St. Bonaventure figures to take advantage of those opportunities, noting that it has knocked down 30, 24, 29, 27 and 20 field goals over its last five games with the outlier being a defensive slugfest against one of the slowest-paced and defensively-elite teams in the country in Virginia last time out. The Bonnies have generally done a nice job of limiting their opponents opportunities, allowing fewer than 60 FG attempts in 12 straight games heading into this one. However, they'll have their hands full with Xavier. The Musketeers check in having made good on 35, 33, 24, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five contests, most recently thriving in the second half of their win over Vandy. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Xavier was held to fewer than 72 points. In a game where I expect the pace to tick up a bit, I'm confident both offenses can continue to thrive and this total will quite simply prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State OVER 135.5 | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Third Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Southern Utah and Fresno State at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State has looked like a different team in this tournament, making good on 28 and 27 field goals while scoring 80+ points in both games. Perhaps getting out of the defensive-minded Mountain West Conference was just what the doctor ordered. Here, the Bulldogs draw another vulnerable defensive opponent in Southern Utah. The Jaguars have consistently allowed between 23-28 made field goals per contest over the last month. On the flip side, Southern Utah has been scoring with the best of them, knocking down 27, 28, 25, 28, 32 and 29 field goals over its last six contests. Fresno State played lights out defensive basketball earlier in the season but that hasn't really been the case lately. The Bulldogs have yielded 26, 20, 26 and 23 made field goals over their last four games, despite a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate the Jaguars forcing the issue a little more than Fresno's recent opponents, noting that they've averaged 27-for-61 shooting away from home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-22 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 240 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. I don't expect to see much defense in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday night. The Hornets roll into this game having made good on 52, 49, 43, 44, 40, 42 and 41 field goals over their last seven games. You get the idea. They're scoring fairly consistently right now and won't back down from the challenge at hand in Brooklyn on Sunday, noting that they've already won on this floor this season. More recently these two teams met in Charlotte and they combined to score 253 points on March 8th. The Nets entered last night's game in Miami having knocked down 45+ field goals in all but one of their previous nine games. Counter to that, they've also yielded 92+ FG attempts to opponents in five of their last eight contests. Expect a track meet here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arkansas in its stunning upset win over number-one seed Gonzaga two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Razorbacks actually made some poor choices shooting the basketball early in the shot clock down the stretch in that win over Gonzaga and ultimately made good on just 29-of-72 field goal attempts but their relentless defense frustrated the Zags all night and I expect more of the same here (but with better shot selection offensively). Duke has been red hot shooting the ball but what happens if those shots suddenly stop falling? Interestingly, it has only gotten off 58, 56 and 54 field goal attempts in its first three tournament games (it averages 60 FG attempts per contest away from home this season). I'm concerned with the Blue Devils inability to control their opponents' tempo, having yielded 64+ FG attempts in each of their last seven games. Even a lukewarm Texas Tech offense was able to make good on 31 field goals on Thursday, even though it wasn't enough to topple the Blue Devils. Going back to March 5th against North Carolina, Duke has now allowed 33, 27, 31, 32, 24, 27 and 31 made field goals over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, only one of the Hogs last seven opponents has managed to knock down more than 26 field goals. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NCAA Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Thursday's Arkansas-Gonzaga game wasn't a typical one for the Razorbacks. They average 60 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and had gotten off 57 or fewer in four straight games prior to that contest. Yet they ended up hoisting up 72 field goal attempts, making good only only 29 of them, in that stunning upset victory. On the flip side, they also allowed the Zags to get off 64 FG attempts - well north of the 57 FG attempts they yield on average away from home this season. It's not the way Hogs head coach Eric Musselman wants this game to play out on Saturday against the red hot Blue Devils, I'm sure of that. Duke has shot better than 51% in each of its first three games in this tournament. Interestingly, it has actually attempted 58 or fewer field goals in all three contests. I'm not expecting anything to come easy for the Blue Devils on offense here. Note that Arkansas has held six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. With that being said, there is seemingly a 'ceiling' for the Arkansas offense. Even with 70+ FG attempts against Gonzaga it still managed to make good on just 29 field goals. Prior to that it had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. The Hogs have of course made their living at the free throw line this season but it is worth mentioning that the Blue Devils send opponents to the charity stripe just 12 times per game. With the Blue Devils coming off consecutive 'over' results (we cashed with the 'over' in both games), I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-22 | Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 227.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and it's not as if they're getting any looser. Neither team has scored more than 114 points in any of the previous three matchups with those contests totalling 216, 216 and 218 total points. I would anticipate tonight's contest being played at a very similar pace to what we saw earlier this week when the Mavs prevailed by a 110-108 score in Dallas. That game saw the two teams combined to knock down 27 three-pointers (they average a combined 28 made threes per game this season) and 39 free throws (they average 34 made free throws combined this season). The Mavs continue to put the defensive clamps on the opposition, yielding fewer than 89 FG attempts in seven of their last nine games. The only two opponents that got off more than 89 attempts were Brooklyn and the same Minnesota squad they'll face tonight, with those two scoring just 111 and 108 points, respectively. Meanwhile, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time the Mavs hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in a game. The T'Wolves are actually a respectable defensive team here at home this season, holding the opposition to 38-of-87 shooting on average with the 'under' cashing at a 19-17-1 clip. They got lit up by a red hot Suns squad that couldn't miss last time out. Coming off consecutive losses I look for Minnesota to tighten things up here. Note that the last three times they've played at home following consecutive losses they've allowed just 103, 99 and 106 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 133 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NCAA Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and Purdue at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen this total drop since opening as it seems bettors have little faith in St. Peter's to keep it rolling against Purdue. The Peacocks have certainly impressed through two tournament games, scoring 85 points in a win over Kentucky (aided by overtime - they scored 71 points in regulation time) and then 70 points in a double-digit victory over Murray State. Even though the game against Kentucky went to overtime, the Peacocks still made good on 27-of-54 field goal attempts in regulation time. Here, they're likely to be afforded a whole lot more scoring opportunities, noting that Purdue has yielded 61, 60, 59, 69, 61, 63 and 68 field goal attempts over its last seven games. The Boilermakers allow an average of 61 FG attempts per game away from home this season. Not only that, but the opposition has knocked down an average of nine three-pointers per game against the Boilers away from their home gym. My point is, there's going to be a path for the Peacocks to score a reasonable number of points and keep this game competitive - which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Of course, little needs to be said about the Purdue offense. The Boilers currently rank first in the nation in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. While St. Peter's has been terrific defensively, coming from the MAAC it's no surprise that its slate of opponents ranks 185th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is a considerable step up in class, noting that the Peacocks allowed Kentucky to make good on 26-of-61 field goal attempts in the opening round of this tournament (again, aided by overtime). Earlier in the season, St. Peter's faced a couple of opponents in the same vein as Purdue, with those contests totalling 161 points against St. John's and 156 points against Providence - another team that's still dancing in this tournament. I mentioned that Purdue has yielded plenty of FG attempts on a game-by-game basis but it has also allowed 26+ made field goals in seven of its last nine games. Both teams have shown the ability to get to the free throw line with St. Peter's averaging 20 field goal attempts per game while also sending opponents to the line 22 times per contest. Purdue averages 22 trips to the charity stripe per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 109-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are a team we want to back right now, checking in 4-1 ATS over their last five games and well-positioned to bounce back following a loss in Charlotte three nights ago. New Orleans has been incredibly consistent offensively, making good on 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games entering Thursday's contest. That's not to mention the fact that it has held seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those seven opponents to less than 80. That spells trouble for a Bulls squad that has seen its season go off the rails, losing nine of its last 12 games. Chicago has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in four of its last six games. Meanwhile, it has given up 42, 47, 40 and 50 made field goals over its last four contests. Look for a revenge-minded Pelicans squad (the Bulls took the only previous meeting this season by 16 points in Chicago back in October) to prevail on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Gonzaga at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Arkansas enters this showdown with Gonzaga having dropped the cash in three straight games so this is a slam dunk for the number-one ranked Bulldogs, right? I'm not so sure. The Razorbacks have thrived in the role of underdog, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in that role. The Hogs are here despite knocking down just 14 field goals against New Mexico State. Only once previously this season did they make good on fewer than 20 field goals in a game (they still won that contest against Tennessee). In their next game following that poor shooting performance, they knocked down 29-of-63 field goal attempts in an 82-74 win at Florida. Here, the Hogs should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that Gonzaga yields a ton of FG attempts, generally between 60-70 per game (an average of 65 away from home this season). Of course, the Razorbacks haven't been a great shooting team this season but they 'find a way' getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. There's certainly room for some regression from the Zags offense here after shooting 51% and 52% in their first two games in this tournament. Arkansas certainly poses a challenge defensively, ranking 14th in the country according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Razorbacks check in having allowed 53 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last five games. I like the 'no one believes in us' angle that underdogs of this nature tend to carry at this point of the tournament, and that's certainly been played up by Hogs head coach Eric Musselman in the days leading up to this game. I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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03-23-22 | 76ers -7 v. Lakers | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a surprising double-digit win on Monday night in Cleveland. Perhaps that victory shouldn't have come as much of a surprise, however, given Lebron James is obviously always going to get up for homecoming games, not to mention the fact that the Cavs have been playing an uneven brand of basketball for weeks now. We should see a different story unfold on Wednesday as the Lakers return home to host the 76ers. Philadelphia posted a seven-point win over Miami as an eight-point underdog on Monday (without Joel Embiid and James Harden). The Sixers have been smothering opposing offenses, holding four of their last five opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Their last four opponents have managed to knock down only 39, 37, 35 and 38 field goals. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers non-existent defense, which has yielded 40, 49, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last four contests. Yes, L.A. has gone off offensively over its last few games but it will be taking a step up in class here against a 76ers defense that allows an average of 39-for-85 shooting on the road this season, including just 11-of-33 from three-point range. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU minus the points over Washington State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I don't believe BYU is getting enough respect given how well it has played over the last month. The Cougars check in 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests with their only two losses over that stretch coming against NCAA Tournament-bound teams in St. Mary's and San Francisco. While Washington State has been playing well also, having won six of its last seven overall, it has also caught some good fortune along the way, particularly here in the NIT as its last two opponents have combined to shoot a woeful 40-of-118 from the field. Some of that can obviously be chalked up to good defense, but I'm of the belief that sometimes the shots just don't fall (note that prior to its last two contests, Washington State had allowed 25+ made field goals in five of its last seven games). Note that the Cougars of Washington State have actually afforded their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 64, 61, 60 and 58 field goal attempts over their last four games. Give BYU that many chances and it will take advantage, noting that the Cougars are scorching hot right now, having made good on 32+ field goals in four of their last six games and and incredible 72-for-134 from the field over their last two contests alone. Meanwhile, the BYU defense has done a good job of limiting its opponents opportunities, allowing 58 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games. Keep in mind, Washington State has struggled to knock down its shots all season, particularly away from home where it averages only 24-of-61 shooting. By contrast, BYU has averaged four more field goals per game on one fewer attempt here at home (28-of-60). Take BYU (10*). |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier OVER 143 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Vanderbilt and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. While the pace has certainly been there, Xavier has seen its first two NIT matchups stay 'under' the total. I look for that to change on Tuesday as they host Vanderbilt in quarter-final action. The Musketeers game against Florida on Sunday certainly looked on track to fly 'over' the total early but Florida settled into a scoring drought and never really recovered, ultimately making good on just 21-of-64 field goal attempts in a 72-56 Xavier win. Now we're being offered the lowest total we've seen in Xavier's three NIT games and I believe it will prove too low. The Musketeers have yielded 60+ FG attempts in five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall. The 'over' has cashed at a 7-4 clip over that stretch. We know Vandy is comfortable pushing the pace, noting that it has hoisted up 62+ FG attempts in four of its last five contests. In the only game where it didn't it still managed to score in the 80's against Alabama. On the flip side, the Commodores have yielded 67, 61, 60 and 56 FG attempts themselves over their last four games. Opponents have generally been 'filling it up' against them, knocking down 24, 30, 27 and 26 field goals over those four contests with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 along the way. For its part, Xavier checks in having made good on 35, 33, 24 and 26 field goals over its last four games, scoring 72+ points in all four games. We don't need a track meet to cash this ticket but I do think we'll see a relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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03-21-22 | Lakers v. Cavs UNDER 227 | Top | 131-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Cavs enter Monday's game on the heels of four consecutive 'over' results. I expect that streak to come to an end here, as they host the road-weary Lakers. We of course missed with the 'under' in the Cavs overtime win over the Nuggets on Friday. We obviously deserved a better fate in that contest as the score stayed 'under' the total in regulation time before eclipsing the number in OT. Cleveland has now held its last three opponents to just 79, 83 and 85 field goal attempts in regulation time. All three opponents happened to shoot considerably better than their season average but I'm not anticipating a similar story to unfold here as the Lakers play their third game in four nights away from home. L.A. actually managed to shoot the lights out on Friday in Toronto and Saturday in Washington. Prior to that, the Lakers had made good on fewer than 40 field goals in three straight games, scoring 111 points or less in all three of those contests. Cleveland isn't likely to push the pace too much in this one, noting that it has gotten off fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in six consecutive games. The Cavs shot exceptionally well on Saturday night against Detroit (better than 50%) but again, we can expect some regression here as they play their third game in four nights and perhaps look to 'manage' proceedings a little bit here as they take the floor for the seventh time in the last 11 nights. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season was played at a similar pace to what I'm projecting tonight, and that contest totalled just 214 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-22 | Northern Colorado v. North Carolina-Asheville +1.5 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
CBI Game of the Year. My selection is on UNC-Asheville plus the points over Northern Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams staged upset victories in their respective opening round CBI matchups. I look for UNC-Asheville to be the team playing on following Monday's clash at Daytona Beach. Asheville has been nothing if not consistent offensively, making good on 25+ field goals in eight of its last nine games. While it has proven vulnerable defensively it hasn't shown a tendency to let opponents get out and run recently, limiting five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to Northern Colorado, which has given up 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and 70+ in two of its last three contests. Northern Colorado relies heavily on the three-ball to support its offense and that's notable as UNC-Asheville checks in allowing just five made threes per game away from home this season. We've certainly seen some inconsistency from the Bears lately as they're just one game removed from making good on only 19 field goals in an 88-67 loss to Montana State. They've been held to 57 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last six games overall. There's little reason to think Asheville won't be able to 'fill it up' here, with the Bears yielding 25+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games and 28+ in half of those contests. You could certainly argue that Northern Colorado is fortunate to still be playing, surviving against Florida Atlantic last time out despite the Owls getting off 14 more FG attempts in a game that went right down to the wire. Asheville is'nt likely to beat itself here, noting that it has been quite disciplined away from home this season, sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per contest while getting there 20 times per game itself. Take UNC-Asheville (10*). |
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03-20-22 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Auburn at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. At 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games, the Miami Hurricanes have been one of the best bets in the country over the last month-plus. I certainly don't expect them to back down against the Auburn Tigers - one of the favorites to win the National Championship - on Sunday. Miami has been doing a terrific job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities and that continued against USC in the opening round. The Canes have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. While a number of their recent opponents have made the most of their opportunities, I'm not convinced we'll see Auburn do that here. Note that the Tigers have made good on 28 or fewer field goals in seven straight games, despite getting off 61 or more attempts in all but two of those contests. On the flip side, Auburn's relatively fast-pace does afford opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, as it checks in having yielded 61, 67, 64, 57 and 61 field goal attempts over its last five contests. Miami figures to take advantage, noting that the Canes have knocked down 28+ field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. I actually see this one playing out similarly to the Canes recent ACC Tournament matchup with Duke - a game in which they scored 76 points and lost by only four points. Take Miami (10*). |
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03-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 235 | Top | 122-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Houston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Sunday afternoon in Houston. The Grizzlies offense got bogged down in a 120-105 loss in Atlanta on Friday, getting off just 85 field goal attempts in the loss. Keep in mind, they had hoisted up 92+ field goal attempts in seven straight games prior to that, including 101 or more in each of their last four contests. Here, the Rockets are unlikely to contain the Grizzlies offense, noting that Houston has yielded 91+ FG attempts in six of its last seven games, allowing seven straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals with six of those opponents making good on at least 44 field goals. On the flip side, we've seen the Rockets make good on exactly 39 field goals in two of their last three games but that's had more to do with slow pace than anything else. Here, they should be afforded the opportunity to get out and run against a Grizzlies defense that has permitted 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. The Rockets attempted just 82 field goals in their most recent meeting with Memphis back on March 6th, but still managed to score 123 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-22 | Richmond v. Providence OVER 134 | Top | 51-79 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Richmond and Providence at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams saw their opening round games stay 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a reasonably low total here. Richmond has actually seen consecutive 'unders', even if the pace in yesterday's upset win over Iowa would have usually dictated an 'over' result. The Spiders were certainly fortunate to catch Iowa on an off day shooting-wise, perhaps suffering from a letdown following its Big Ten Tournament championship run. The Hawkeyes got off 66 field goal attempts against Richmond but could only knock down 24 of them. It was a similar story in the A-10 Tournament final as Davidson shot 19-of-51 against the Spiders. Here, I'm anticipating a better shooting performance from Providence. The Friars had a poor day shooting the basketball yesterday as well, not all that surprising as teams adjust to playing in new venues in the tournament's opening weekend. Providence did hoist up 61 FG attempts but made good on just 24 of them. Note that prior to that, the Friars had seen each of their last four games in which they attempted 60+ field goals go 'over' the total. Going back to February 15th, Providence has attempted 62, 60, 68, 59, 56, 54, 65 and 61 field goals so it has certainly been making an effort to push the tempo. Like the Spiders, the Friars benefited from yesterday's opponent - normally explosive South Dakota State - shooting a woeful 22-of-57 from the field. Providence has yielded plenty of scoring opportunities in recent games, allowing 79, 59, 57, 61, 57 and 57 FG attempts over its last six contests. It's certainly worth noting that yesterday's game against the Jackrabbits also featured just 21 free throw attempts. The Spiders and Friars combine to average 39 free throw attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-22 | Western Illinois v. UTEP OVER 144 | Top | 54-80 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and UTEP at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter this tournament off 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Saturday afternoon. Western Illinois is one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, particularly away from home where it averages a whopping 66 field goal attempts per game. That's a stark contrast to what UTEP is accustomed to facing. I also feel the Miners could be in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here given WIU averages 10 more three-point attempts per game than UTEP has faced this season. While I do consider the Miners to be a quality defensive team, they weren't at their best down the stretch, allowing 23+ made field goals in each of their last seven games, despite playing at a reasonably slow pace (only one of their opponents over that stretch got off 60+ FG attempts and that game against Old Dominion went 'over' the total by double-digits). Of course, WIU is one of the weaker defensive teams in the nation. It checks in having allowed seven of its last 10 opponents to make good on 30+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-4 over that stretch. UTEP actually rounded into form offensively down the stretch, knocking down 25, 29, 22, 28 and 24 field goals over its last five contests. Again, that's more impressive when you consider the slow pace the Miners generally play at (they attempted more than 57 field goals just once over that five-game stretch). I'm not convinced the opening round of 'The Basketball Classic' is the time and place for a defensive slugfest. I'm anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-22 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers enter Friday's game in Utah off consecutive losses but extended losing streaks have certainly not been common for them this season, with their longest lasting just three games. I expect them to bounce back here against an undermanned Jazz squad that will be without both Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic (that duo combined to shoot 17-of-25 in the most recent meeting between these two teams in December). While Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games, I like what I've seen from it defensively as it has limited its last three opponents to just 80, 86 and 83 field goal attempts. Of the Clippers last eight opponents, only two have managed to get off 90+ FG attempts. After allowing five straight opponents to make good on 41 or more field goals, the Clips have now held two of their last three opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. The Jazz haven't been able to get out and run as much as they would likely lately, and when they have, they've struggled shooting the ball. They've attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six of their last eight contests. In the other two games they shot a miserable 37-of-92 and 37-of-93 in outright losses as favorites against the Bucks and Spurs. Meanwhile, Utah has allowed its last three opponents to knock down 47, 40 and 43 field goals, giving up 125, 117 and 110 points in the process. Of Utah's last eight opponents, four of them have gotten off 91+ FG attempts. Keep in mind, the Clippers are just one game removed from hoisting up 98 FG attempts in a loss to the Cavs. I think we'll see the revenge-minded Clips afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. Note that while Utah took the most recent meeting between these two teams, that was only thanks to shooting the lights out (47-of-89 - with Mitchell and Bogdanovic key contributors as I mentioned earlier). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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03-18-22 | Chattanooga +8 v. Illinois | Top | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Chattanooga plus the points over Illinonis at 6:50 pm et on Friday. I'm confident Chattanooga will be afforded more than enough opportunities to ultimately make life difficult on Illinois and ultimately take this one down to the wire. The Mocs are one of the more underrated teams entering this tournament in my opinion. They caught fire down the stretch and come in playing extremely consistent basketball at both ends of the floor. The Mocs knocked down 25+ field goals in each of their last eight games. You would have to go all the way back to January 12th to find the last time they failed to reach at least 21 made field goals in a game - in fact that was the only time that happened all season. While I'm well aware that Chattanooga plays in a lower-tier conference than Illinois but let's face it, upsets happen in March. The Mocs are capable of hanging with the Illini here, noting that they've done a terrific job of limiting their opponents opportunities, especially when the chips were down, allowing just 54, 57, 48 and 52 field goal attempts over their last four games. No surprise they yielded 66 points or fewer in all four of those contests. They only allowed 60+ FG attempts in four of their last 17 games. The argument could be made that Illinois peaked in late February, when they delivered consecutive wins over Ohio State and Michigan. From there the Illini went 0-3 ATS over their last three games. In one of those contests they outlasted Penn State 60-55 in a game where they knocked down just 18 field goals. While Chattanooga has done a tremendous job of controlling its opponents' tempo, Illinois checks in having yielded 60+ FG attempts in seven of their last 16 games. Again, I realize the gap between the two conferences but I still feel the discrepancy is worth noting. The Illini allowed 27+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as seems to be indicated by the pointspread. Take Chattanooga (10*). |
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03-17-22 | Vermont +5.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 80 h 18 m | Show |
My selection is on Vermont plus the points over Arkansas at 9:20 pm et on Thursday. There's obviously a lot of mental gymnastics that need to take place to figure out where teams from completely different conferences (and in turn level of opposition) stand as we head into the opening round matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Here, I do like Vermont's chances against what I consider to be an overrated Arkansas squad. The Catamounts absolutely laid waste to the opposition in the America East Conference down the stretch. Over their last eight games they've allowed more than 20 field goals in a game only three times (23 was the high-water mark over that stretch), limiting four of those opponents to 19 or less. I'm not sure their offense gets enough credit. They head into the NCAA Tournament having knocked down 28, 37, 26 and 37 field goals over their last four games, topping out at 63 attempts over that stretch. In other words, they're comfortable playing at a fast pace while also severely limiting their opponents scoring opportunities. Arkansas might just have peaked from mid-February into early-March, culminating with two near-perfect performances in victories over Kentucky and LSU. In three games since, we've seen the Razorbacks make good on just 23, 24 and 23 field goals. Meanwhile, they've been uneven defensively, allowing 30, 26, 23, 18 and 31 made field goals over their last five contests. They haven't really shown all that much interest in controlling their opponents' tempo, yielding 61+ FG attempts in three of their last five games. While Arkansas will undoubtedly be a popular sleeper pick, I expect it to get all it can handle against an experienced and talented Vermont squad on Thursday. Take Vermont (9*). |
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03-17-22 | Marquette v. North Carolina OVER 151.5 | Top | 63-95 | Win | 100 | 76 h 35 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Marquette and North Carolina at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams lost out in their respective conference tournaments in games that stayed 'under' the total. In the case of North Carolina, it heads into the NCAA Tournament off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold as they meet up in the first round of the tournament on Thursday afternoon. Marquette has certainly endured an uneven season to this point but one thing we know is that the Golden Eagles can 'fill it up', having made good on 30, 35, 23, 32, 29 and 23 field goals over their last six games despite not all of those games being played at all that fast of a pace. Here, we are likely to see an up-tempo affair and I'm confident the Eagles can thrive in that type of environment. Of concern, however, is the fact that Marquette has been lit up for 28+ made field goals in four of its last five contests, with no ability whatsoever to dictate their opponents' tempo over that stretch, allowing Depaul and St. John's in particular to get off 67 and 70 field goal attempts, respectively. Put the Tar Heels into that sort of contest and they'll undoubtedly hang a crooked number on the scoreboard here. North Carolina went down swinging in the ACC Tournament, attempting 60 field goals but simply not hitting nearly enough in its loss to Virginia Tech. Note that the Tar Heels have knocked down 29, 29, 33, 25 and 22 field goals over their last five contests. Over that stretch they attempted fewer than 60 field goals only once, getting up to 65+ in that department on three occasions. Outside of a very limited (offensively) Virginia squad, UNC's opponents have had little trouble scoring, knocking down 27, 25, 31, 34, 18 and 25 field goals over its last six games. Four of the Tar Heels last five opponents scored 72+ points with the lone outlier being Virginia, as I mentioned. These two teams actually have a bit of recent history having met last February in a game that totalled 153 points. That game as played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating here and it's also worth noting that the two teams combined to make just 14 three-pointers (they average 17 per game combined this season) and the Tar Heels shot a miserable 25-of-60 from the field. We've seen an adjustment to the total (that game saw a closing total of 145.5) but I'm not convinced it will be enough. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-22 | Notre Dame v. Rutgers OVER 131 | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 60 h 0 m | Show |
NCAA First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Rutgers at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. It might be easy to forget due to its early exit in the ACC Tournament but Notre Dame enters the NCAA Tournament riding a 7-0-1 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Rutgers was brought to an early demise in the Big Ten Tournament with an 'over' result against Iowa, snapping a four-game 'under' streak in the process. Notre Dame certainly 'filled it up' down the stretch, making good on 27+ field goals in six of its final eight games. Despite the pace not being there over the Irish's last two games, they still managed to knock down 27 field goals in each contest, putting up 78 and 80 points against Pitt and Virginia Tech. On the flip side, we've seen the Irish allow 36, 29, 26, 21, 28, 23 and 31 made field goals over their last seven games. The two outliers were 21 and 23 against two weak opponents in Georgia Tech and Pitt. Rutgers should pose a significantly tougher challenge here. The Scarlet Knights haven't posted eye-popping offensive numbers by any means, largely due to a relatively slow pace in most games. They still managed to make good on 27+ field goals in four of their last seven games and I do think this is a game where we see that pace pick up a bit (Notre Dame has yielded opponents 60+ field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games). Despite the slow tempo, Rutgers has allowed 26, 27, 23, 23, 18 and 26 made field goals over its last six games with the outlier coming in what amounted to a defensive slog against Penn State - an opponent that certainly attracts that type of contest. Neither team guards the perimeter all that well with Notre Dame allowing 8-of-20 shooting from three-point range away from home and Rutgers yielding 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from Piscataway. Take the over (10*). |
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03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
NIT First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Iona plus the points over Florida at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Iona is more accustomed to playing in the NCAA Tournament rather than the NIT in recent years but here it is, drawing Florida in the opening round of the NIT on Wednesday. I like the Gaels chances of not only staying inside the pointspread but potentially staging the upset here. Iona checks in having knocked down 31, 27, 23, 29, 29 and 25 field goals over its last six games, falling just a point short against Rider an upset loss as an 11.5-point favorite in the MAAC Tournament. The Gaels may have overlooked Rider in that contest as they simply didn't show up defensively, allowing the Broncs to shoot 29-of-57 from the field. Prior to that they had held six of their last eight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals, going 6-2 SU over that stretch. We saw Florida get drawn into some up-tempo affairs down the stretch, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games. That's obviously the pace Iona prefers and given where this total sits, that's the type of affair we can anticipate here. Concerning is the fact that the Gators allowed their last five opponents to knock down 29, 27, 30, 28 and 24 field goals, despite the fact that only one of those opponents got off more than 58 FG attempts. Take Iona (10*). |
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03-16-22 | Nuggets v. Wizards UNDER 229 | Top | 127-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards have seen the 'over' cash in seven straight games but I don't believe that's a sustainable trend. The pace they've been playing at certainly doesn't dictate such a streak. Note that Washington has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in each of its last eight games. Defensively, the Wizards have certainly been struggling, but are also coming off four straight road games. They're in a more favorable spot here, back home hosting a Nuggets squad playing its ninth game in the last 15 nights and fifth-in-eight, in four different cities no less. Like the Wizards, the Nuggets haven't exactly been forcing the issue offensively, getting off 84 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. You would have to go back to March 2nd to find the last time they attempted 90 field goals in a game and they scored just 107 points in Oklahoma City on that night. Aside from a loss against a Raptors squad that has been playing at a furious pace lately, the Nuggets have done a good job of controlling the tempo of their opposition, allowing 88 of fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. They've yielded opponents just 87 FG attempts per game on the road this season. Note that the Wizards actually got off 90 FG attempts in the first meeting between these two teams this season but could only muster 107 points in a game that totalled just 220 points. We saw a closing total of 216 in that one, so we're being given a considerably higher total to work with here. I'm not convinced it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Cleveland State v. Xavier OVER 146.5 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
NIT First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Xavier at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between Cleveland State and Xavier in NIT action on Tuesday. Cleveland State made an unceremonious early exit in the Horizon League Tournament thanks to a poor shooting effort against Wright State. The Vikings still managed to knock down 25 field goals and score 67 points in that setback. Note that they've made good on 30+ field goals in four of their last eight games with the low-water mark being 21 over that stretch in what turned out to be a lwo-scoring, defensive affair against Oakland. Here, I'm confident we'll see Xavier push the pace, noting that it has gotten off 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games, eclipsing the 70 FG mark three times over that stretch. The Musketeers haven't just been pushing the pace, they've been knocking down their shots as well, making good on 33+ field goals in three of their last five games. While Cleveland State has held six straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals, that's had more to do with pace than anything else. The Vikings have been nothing special defensively away from home, where they've yielded 26-of-56 shooting and eight made threes per game. Not only that but they've sent opponents to the free throw line 22 times per game away from home this season. Xavier is certainly vulnerable at the defensive end of the floor, allowing 34, 25, 33, 29, 28, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last seven contests. Even in the game where they only allowed 25 made FG's they still gave up 72 points in a loss to UConn. Take the over (10*). |
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03-15-22 | Nets -9.5 v. Magic | Top | 150-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off a SU win but ATS loss against the Knicks on Sunday while the Magic have quietly reeled off four consecutive ATS wins entering Tuesday's matchup in Orlando. I like the way this one sets up for the Nets, however. Note that Brooklyn has been ultra-efficient offensively of late, knocking down 45, 46, 51 and 44 field goals over its last four games despite getting off 90+ field goal attempts only once over that stretch. Orlando has been hanging in there largely due to its opposition struggling in terms of FG%, noting that it has actually yielded 90+ field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. If the pace gets up to that level tonight, there's a good chance we see the Nets 'go off' offensively given the way they've been shooting. On the flip side, Brooklyn limited New York to just 83 FG attempts in Sunday's narrow victory and has held three of its last five opponents to 83 FG attempts or fewer. The Nets last two opponents have made good on just 30 and 39 field goals. Note that the Magic, despite getting off a reasonable 88 FG attempts per game here at home, have only managed to knock down an average of 38 field goals per contest. There is valid concern here that the Nets elect to 'manage' this game given they have a big home date with the Mavericks on deck tomorrow. However, this will be just their second game in the last five nights, and tomorrow's contest will begin a very manageable three-game in six-night homestand, so those concerns can be tempered somewhat. Considering the Magic took the last meeting between these two teams by a 100-93 score in Brooklyn back in mid-December, we'll back a revenge-minded Nets squad laying what I consider to be a reasonable number on Tuesday night. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-14-22 | Blazers +14 v. Hawks | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks wild, high-scoring win over the Pacers last night. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade Atlanta on Monday as it stays home to host the lowly Blazers. Portland snapped its six-game losing streak with a 127-118 win over the Wizards on Saturday. There's reason to be somewhat positive about the Blazers, even with all of their injuries and after their pre-trade deadline fire sale. I say that because they've held 10 of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and better still, four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Two of their last three opponents have knocked down fewer than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Hawks have hit 40+ field goals in four straight games. That's with getting off 90+ FG attempts in two of those three contests, however. More concerning is the fact that Atlanta has yielded 52, 46, 43, 47, 40 and 46 made field goals over its last six games. It's not as if the pace has necessarily dictated those high field goal totals either as four of those six opponents attempted fewer than 90 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to January 28th to find the last time an opponent didn't score 100+ points against the Hawks. Also of note is the fact that the Hawks could very well elect to 'manage' this game as they're in the midst of a stretch that will see them play 11 games in 19 nights and as I mentioned on the second of back-to-backs after a fairly taxing contest last night. Take Portland (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Louisiana Tech v. UABÂ OVER 135 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana Tech and UAB at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game involving Louisiana Tech yesterday as the Bulldogs defeated North Texas 42-36 in one of the uglier college basketball games you'll ever see. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as the Bulldogs challenge the UAB Blazers in the C-USA Championship Game. Note that the two regular season matchups between these two teams totalled 159 and 161 points. They just faced one another last week and we saw a closing total of 147, so we're dealing with a major adjustment to that number here. I'm not sure it's warranted. Louisiana Tech's three previous opponents in this tournament simply haven't been able to knock down their shots, with only Marshall managing to hit more than 21 field goals (the Thundering Herd made 25 in a 77-67 loss). It's not as if the Bulldogs have been a dominant defensive team all season though, noting that they yield 25-of-59 shooting including 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from home this season. The Blazers offer a much different challenge compared to what the Bulldogs have faced so far in this tournament. UAB checks in having knocked down 32, 32, 27 and 31 field goals over its last four games, scoring 80+ points in each of those contests. I am confident that Louisiana Tech can be along for the ride here, however, noting that the Blazers have proven vulnerable defensively, yielding 25, 22, 29, 23 and 32 made field goals over their last five contests (I realize the latter result involved three overtime periods against Middle Tennessee State yesterday). UAB generally likes to push the pace, averaging 62 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and I do believe that will open the door for the Bulldogs offense here, noting that they hit 53 field goals across the two regular season meetings, even reaching 76 points in the first matchup despite getting off only 52 attempts. Take the over (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Wolves v. Heat UNDER 227 | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The pace has fallen off considerably in games involving the T'Wolves lately so not surprisingly, we've seen the 'under' go 2-0-1 over their last three games. In its last five contests, Minnesota has yielded opponents 86, 85, 83, 87 and 86 field goal attempts. None of those opponents made more than 40 of their attempts with three reaching 37 or less. It's unlikely we'll see the Heat show much interest in pushing the pace here, noting that they'll be playing their seventh game in the last 11 nights, and like the T'Wolves, will be on the second of back-to-backs. We did see Miami's game last night go 'over' the total but the pace wasn't necessarily there as the Heat held the Cavs to just 35-of-79 shooting, but shot lights out themselves. The 'under' has cashed in three of Miami's last five games overall. Note that we saw a closing total of just 212.5 in the first meeting between these two teams back in November. That game totalled just 214 points. I believe tonight's adjustment to the total will prove too much. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 223.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The most recent meeting between these two teams reached 221 total points back in January and as a result we're dealing with a total right around that number for Saturday's third meeting of the season. Keep in mind, in that most recent matchup the two teams shot the lights out (CLE shot 52% and CHI shot 55%). I don't expect anything of that sort on Saturday. The Cavs have seen the 'over' cash in four of their last six games, even if the pace hasn't necessarily been there. Cleveland had a tough enough time just getting shots off in Miami last night, attempting just 79 field goals, but that game ultimately found its way 'over' the low total. Note that the Cavs have attempted 85 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games and face a Bulls squad that has been doing a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, holding four of their last five opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. In fact, the Bulls have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league lately, with the 'under' going 8-2 over their last 10 contests. Note that Chicago has attempted 88 or fewer field goals in four of its last five games. Cleveland has limited Chicago to 84 and 86 FG attempts in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, the Cavs got off just 80 and 77 FG attempts in those two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-22 | San Diego State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Boise State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Aztecs are hoping it will be 'third time's a charm' against Boise State after dropping both regular season meetings by a combined six points. I like their chances of exacting revenge at the best possible time in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Saturday. San Diego State is absolutely locked-in defensively right now, having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games heading into this one. While saying that the Aztecs have made good on 20+ field goals in 12 straight games doesn't sound like much, it is a major positive when you consider the low pace they play at (they attempted fewer than 50 field goals in half of those contests). Boise State isn't playing at the same level defensively as San Diego State, having yielded 26, 26, 28, 26 and 23 made field goals over its last five games. After shooting 50% or better from the field in four straight games, the Broncos cooled off to knock down just 23-of-49 shots in their semi-final victory over Wyoming. Note that in the two regular season matchups between the Aztecs and Broncos it was San Diego State that held a 38-31 edge in terms of field goals made. Boise State, however, got to the free throw line 21 more times across the two games, which ultimately proved to be the difference on both occasions. It's difficult to project that happening again here, noting that Boise State averages just two more FT attempts per game than San Diego State this season. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Pennsylvania v. Yale OVER 144.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Ivy League Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn and Yale at 2 pm et on Saturday. Penn enters this Ivy League semi-final matchup riding a five-game 'over' streak and I look for that to continue against Yale on Saturday. The Quakers were one of the worst defensive teams in the country down the stretch, allowing 28, 30, 30, 28 and 37 made field goals over their last five games. They can't help but continue to push the pace though, as they continue to 'pour it in', knocking down 28, 29, 33, 26 and 31 field goals over their last five games and enter this contest having scored 70+ points in nine straight games - a run that started with a 76-point performance against Yale. The Bulldogs took their share of lumps down the stretch, unable to consistently slow down the opposition, allowing three of their last five opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Their offensive numbers certainly don't pop off the page, but they did manage to make good on 24 or more field goals in five of their last six games, an encouraging sign given that they don't play at all that quick of a pace. Note that we have a potential floor to work with as far as these two offenses go, noting that Yale shot 23-of-59 from the field including just 3-of-19 from beyond the arc in the first meeting between these two teams this season, yet that game still got to 144 total points. The next meeting was higher-scoring as Yale won by an 81-72 score. Take the over (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Wizards +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Wizards opened their current road trip with a six-point loss against the Clippers two nights ago. They're still a solid 5-4 ATS over their last nine games with their four ATS losses over that stretch coming by a combined seven points. We've seen Washington make a concerted effort, at least seemingly, to slow down opposing offenses recently, limiting nine of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Wizards last two opponents have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Lakers doing tonight. Offensively, the Wiz have been 'filling it up', knocking down 41, 46, 45 and 41 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all four of those contests. In fact, they've knocked down 40+ field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Here, the Wiz should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a non-existent Lakers defense. Los Angeles has shown no ability (or interest) to slow down opposing offenses, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games (it allows an average of 91 FG attempts per game at home this season). Each of the Lakers last seven opponents have made good on at least 41 field goal attempts, with five of them knocking down 46+. While the Lakers have been doing a solid job of keeping pace, hitting 40+ field goals in four straight games, I'm not convinced the pace will be there for them to reach that number tonight. Note that the Wizards allow an average of 40-of-88 shooting on the road this season. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on VCU minus the points over Richmond at 8:30 pm et on Friday. VCU will be trying to accomplish the difficult task of defeating the same team three times in one season as it takes on Richmond in A-10 quarter-final action on Friday. I like the Rams chances. Richmond comes off a narrow 64-59 win over Rhode Island yesterday. The Spiders have picked a bad time to go into a bit of a shooting slump. They've knocked down 23, 20, 25 and 18 field goals over their last four contests, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS over that stretch. They had a tough enough time just getting shots off last night, attempting just 47 field goals in their victory over RI. Here, things won't get any easier against a VCU squad that has absolutely locked down the opposition defensively this season and particularly down the stretch. The Rams enter this contest having yielded 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their final three regular season games they gave up only 21, 18 and 21 made field goals. Meanwhile, the VCU offense has been humming along, making good on 24+ field goals in nine straight games including 26+ in seven of those contests. That's not all that impressive on the face of it but when you consider that most of those games were played at a relatively slow pace (with FG attempts in the 50-55 range for the most part) you get a better sense of how efficient the Rams offense has been. Here, I'm expecting a slightly faster pace, noting that the Rams got off 55 and 61 FG attempts in two regular season meetings with the Spiders, knocking down 28 of of those attempts in both games. Richmond shot just 42-of-117 from the field in those two regular season matchups. Richmond only managed to stay close in their home meeting and that was thanks to a wide 21-7 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, something that's unlikely to happen here. Take VCU (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's -6.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Quinnipiac at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for St. Peter's as it takes on Quinnipiac in MAAC Tournament semi-final action on Friday. The Peacocks are as locked-in defensively as any team in the conference and perhaps the entire country right now (relatively speaking, of course). Going back to a February 4th matchup against the same Quinnipiac squad they'll face tonight, they've allowed 22 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Over their last four contests they've yielded just 13, 17, 15 and 19 made field goals. All the while they've been absolutely frustrating opposing offenses by slowing the pace. While Quinnipiac has knocked down 26+ field goals in three of its last four games, that's had a lot to do with playing at a reasonably fast pace, something we're not likely to see in this particular matchup. Note that the Bobcats shot a miserable 42-of-121 in two regular season matchups between these two teams - both went St. Peter's way by at least nine points. On the flip side, Quinnipiac has done little to slow opposing offenses lately, allowing 28, 27, 28, 29, 23 and 26 made field goals over its last six games. St. Peter's - despite playing at a snail's pace - has made good on 20+ field goals in eight straight games and 25+ in six of those eight contests. While the Peacocks are by no means a perimeter-based team offensively, they did knock down 17 three-pointers in two regular season meetings with the Bobcats. That's not all that surprising considering Quinnipiac yields nine made threes per game this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence OVER 130.5 | Top | 85-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Providence at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Creighton enters this game on the heels of four straight 'under' results - a streak that started with a 72-51 road loss against Providence. That low-scoring recent matchup is serving to give us a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Note that Creighton made good on only 18 field goals in that contest, including just four from beyond the arc. While Providence can obviously be tough to break down defensively, the Blue Jays do check in averaging 26 made field goals including seven from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. There's reason to believe they can show at least some improvement offensively in this one. Defensively, it's another matter entirely. The Blue Jays have had no success slowing opposing offenses. Going back to February 20th, they've yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Providence shot 28-of-59 against them four games back. Here, the Friars check in off a poor offensive showing against a frustrating Butler squad last night, making good on only 20 field goals but still managing to score 65 points in a four-point victory. Prior to that, the Friars had hit at least 25 field goals in six straight games, scoring 70+ points in all six of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Washington v. USC OVER 141.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and USC at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. Washington enters this game having seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six and 11 of its last 13 games overall. USC, meanwhile, has posted a 3-1 o/u record over its last four games. Washington didn't do much to stop the Utah offense in last night Pac-12 Tournament opener, but prevailed thanks to its own offense pouring in 82 points on 30 made field goals. The Huskies have now allowed 26 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games, including back on February 17th when they allowed the same USC squad they'll face tonight knock down 30-of-62 attempts from the field in a 79-69 loss. There was really nothing special that got that contest 'over' the total. In fact, it was an off night for the Washington offense as they could only make good on 22-of-60 field goal attempts. The Huskies were mired in a scoring slump at that time - a stretch that saw them knock down just 21, 22 and 18 field goals in consecutive games. Here, Washington enters having hit 25 or more field goals in six straight games and 32 and 30 in its last two contests. USC has been hot as well, knocking down 33, 26, 27 and 25 field goals over its last four games. The pace didn't necessarily dictate all that high-scoring of performances over its last few games but here I suspect we'll have to combatants willing to go up and down the floor. Neither has shown any consistent ability or interest in slowing down their opponents tempo. While we are dealing with a higher posted total than we saw for the first meeting this season, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | South Florida +9.5 v. UCF | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
AAC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over UCF at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed badly with South Florida in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 75-47 decision at Temple to close out the regular season last Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Bulls here, however, as I do feel they're well-positioned to give Central Florida all it can handle on Thursday. Lost in that blowout defeat against Temple was the fact that the Bulls did once again hold up alright defensively (given the circumstances - with their offense unable to hit a shot), allowing just 22 made field goals on 56 attempts. USF has now yielded only 20, 22, 16, 19, 24 and 22 made field goals over its last six games. When a team plays like that, it makes it tough on the opponent to cover a lofty pointspread, as we're dealing with here. Keep in mind, prior to Sunday's game, the Bulls had shown some signs of life offensively, knocking down 20+ field goals in nine straight games and hitting 25, 23 and 25 in their last there - all ATS victories. I do think the Bulls can frustrate an average UCF offense here. The Knights are used to getting up into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. The last two times they were held to fewer than 60 attempts they eked out a three-point win at home against East Carolina (as a nine-point favorite) and lost by one point at Tulsa (as a one-point favorite). The Knights have regularly been allowing opponents to get loose offensively, allowing 23 or more made field goals in six of their last eight games (no fewer than 22 over that period) after a stretch in late January-early February that saw them hold consecutive opponents to 22, 21 and 18. USF took the first meeting in this series this season in blowout fashion at home before a revenge-minded Knights squad returned the favor on their home floor. In the Bulls 19-point road loss to UCF on February 3rd, they knocked down only 18 field goals including only 2-of-13 attempts from three-point range. Meanwhile, UCF poured in 14 threes. The fact that the margin was 'only' 19 points was actually encouraging heading into this one as far as I'm concerned, as the Bulls really can't play any worse than they did on that occasion. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Nuggets v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's game on the heels of consecutive 'over' results. Not surprisingly we're dealing with a very high total for this matchup. I believe it will prove too high. The pace hasn't necessarily been there during Denver's current 3-1 'over' run. The lone game in which it allowed more than 88 field goals over that stretch came in an overtime victory over New Orleans on Sunday (we missed with the 'under' in that game). Note that offensively, the Nuggets have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three consecutive games. Playing their third game in four nights on Wednesday (before returning home to host Golden State for the second time in three nights tomorrow), I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet here. Sacramento has been struggling offensively, at least when it comes to efficiency, as it has made good on 35, 39, 46 and 39 field goals over its last four games. The 46 field goal performance came in a 114-113 loss in Dallas (it's worth noting that final score would have stayed well below the total we're working with tonight). Defensively, the Kings continue to struggle as well, but again I'm just not sure the pace will be there to help this one 'over' the total, noting that seven of Sacramento's last 10 opponents have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts. That includes two previous matchups with the Nuggets in which Denver attempted 86 and 82 field goals. In all three meetings this season, Denver has totalled 86 FG attempts or less. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -10 | Top | 53-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Georgetown at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. It's been an absolutely disastrous season for Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas. They do, however, enter the Big East Tournament having gone 4-2 ATS over their last six games. That's little consolation, of course, and only serves to give us the opportunity to back Seton Hall at a discount here, noting that the Pirates closed as 13.5-point favorites against the Hoyas just last week. The Pirates only won that game by five points as they turned in a poor 4-of-20 shooting effort from beyond the arc. I certainly anticipate improvement in that regard here, noting that the Pirates average seven made threes per game away from home this season while Georgetown gives up an average of nine. While the Hoyas did enjoy some late season pointspread success, the fact is they check in having given up 30, 30, 28, 30, 24, 23, 30, 28 and 35 made field goals over their last nine games. In other words, they were consistently awful at the defensive end of the floor. That's to go along with an offense that last knocked down more than 27 field goals in a game way back on December 18th - before the start of Big East play. On the flip side, Seton Hall had to learn to run their offense without PG Bryce Aiken down the stretch and did so nicely, securing five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) leading up to this tournament. The Pirates made good on 25, 29, 28 and 27 field goals in their last four regular season games and while that's steady performance, I look for them to show some improvement in this mouth-watering matchup. It's defensively where Seton Hall has really shone. Opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone hitting them, with the Pirates yielding just 59, 54, 50, 57 and 54 field goal attempts during their five-game winning streak. The high-water mark was 59 and in that contest Seton Hall allowed DePaul to make only 19 of those attempts. Take Seton Hall (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Magic v. Pelicans -8.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans seemingly 'punted' last night's game in Memphis, sitting Brandon Ingram in what turned out to be a blowout loss (we won with the 'over'). Here, I expect a much better performance from New Orleans as it returns home to host Orlando, which is also in a back-to-back spot off a three-point home loss against the Suns last night. Note that the Magic's offense has gone back in the tank, knocking down just 36, 37 and 35 field goals over its last three games despite getting off 95, 86 and 92 field goal attempts in those three contests. Meanwhile, Orlando has shown no ability to control its opponents tempo, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Even without Ingram last night in Memphis, New Orleans stayed reasonably hot offensively, knocking down 41-of-88 FG attempts. Over their last five games, the Pelicans have made good on 47, 52, 50, 48 and 41 field goals. With the Magic projected to allow them to get off 90+ attempts tonight, there's plenty of runway for the improved Pelicans offense to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. On the flip side, New Orleans had been doing a nice job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities up until last night, yielding fewer than 90 FG attempts in six straight games. The Magic have had a tough enough time reaching 100 points when being afforded 90+ attempts. If they can't get close to that many opportunities on Wednesday, they should be in for a long night, noting also that while New Orleans allows 109.5 points per game overall this season, that average drops to 104.0 ppg when coming off two or more consecutive losses, as is the case here. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Hartford v. Maryland-Baltimore County -3.5 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
America East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland-Baltimore County minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Beating a team three times in one season is no simply task but I expect Maryland-Baltimore County to accomplish that feat and book its spot in the America East Championship Game with a convincing victory over Hartford on Wednesday. Both regular season meetings were relatively close but the Retrievers ultimately prevailed by four and seven-point margins. Hartford actually got off 61 and 65 field goal attempts in those two contests while UMBC attempted just 52 and 50 field goals yet the Hawks still fell short on both occasions. Given Hartford's current form, having knocked down just 21, 27 and 16 field goals in its last three games, I'm not convinced it will be able to stay within arm's reach this time around. Note that UMBC will give up plenty of opportunities, yielding 60+ FG attempts in six straight games entering this matchup. But the Hawks aren't really adept at pushing the pace, shooting just 25-of-55 on the road this season, and have attempted fewer than 50 field goals in three of their last six games. I don't think this is going to be a comfortable environment for Hartford on Wednesday. UMBC checks in having made good on 33, 23, 25, 29, 28 and 29 field goals over its last six contests, scoring 90+ points in four of those games. In other words, the Retrievers have been very consistent in what they do on offense. While they do allow opponents to get out and run, they've only given up an average of 27 made field goals per game (on an average of 61 attempts per contest) here at home this season. As an added bonus, the Retrievers check in as one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, knocking down just shy of 80% of their attempts. I don't need to tell you how much that matters at this time of year especially. Take Maryland-Baltimore County (10*). |
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03-08-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 148.5 | Top | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
WAC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Rio Grande Valley and Cal Baptist at 9 pm et on Tuesday. |
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03-08-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 231.5 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Pelicans overtime loss in Denver two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Tuesday and back the 'over' as they wrap up their brief two-game road trip in Memphis. New Orleans is undoubtedly 'feeling it' right now, as evidenced by it hoisting up 92+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games, entering this contest on the heels of four straight games scoring 123+ points. The Pelicans will need every bit of that offensive production if they want to contend with the Grizzlies here. Memphis checks in off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Rockets two nights ago. The Grizz continued to force the issue offensively in that one, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts, marking the fifth time in the last seven games they attempted at least 92 field goals. I do think they're catching the Pelicans at the right time here. New Orleans was always bound for some regression defensively after an incredible run coming out of the break and we saw just that on Sunday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 47-of-87 (54%) from the field in a 138-point effort (boosted by overtime, mind you). The Grizzlies come into this game having hit at least 42 field goals in five straight games and have scored 107+ points in an incredible 17 straight games. This is the highest total we've seen in this series this season but it's warranted in my opinion. Note that in their most recent matchup on February 15th, we saw 230 total points despite New Orleans shooting a miserable 4-of-26 from three-point range. The Pelicans will no doubt improve on that performance here, helping this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Nets -4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Nets on the heels of four straight losses including Sunday's 126-120 loss in a nationally-televised matinee affair in Boston. Kevin Durant is still saying the right things (he of course recently returned from injury) and I don't think the Nets are hitting the panic button by any means, even as they continue to fall in the Eastern Conference standings. With a tough matchup with the 76ers on deck in Philadelphia, getting a win here is of critical importance. Note that the Nets have knocked down 42 and 45 field goals in their last two road games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of those contests. Also on a positive note, the Nets have held their last two opponents to just 77 and 83 FG attempts. The Heat and Celtics simply shot the lights out in those two contests. I'm not anticipating the same type of offensive performance from Charlotte here. The Hornets are off consecutive wins but they've been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that they've allowed seven of their last nine opponents to get off 90+ FG attempts and if that happens tonight, as it likely will, the Nets offense should be able to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. While laying almost a handful of points on the road is certainly a concern, the Nets have managed to go a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven victories with five of those seven wins coming away from home (not surprisingly as Kyrie Irving is only available to the team for road games not played in New York). Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Boston College -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 66-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this ACC Tournament opener sets up for Boston College. The Eagles do limp into the tourney off three consecutive SU and ATS losses but none of those defeats were for lack of trying. The Eagles actually missed the cover by just a bucket last time out at Georgia Tech, putting forth a valiant effort in an 82-78 loss as a three-point underdog. I like the consistency Boston College has shown offensively down the stretch, knocking down 26 or more field goals in four of its last five games, despite getting off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in all five of those contests. While the Eagles defense did lag in their final two games allowing 31 and 30 made field goals, they did continue to do a good job of controlling tempo, yielding no more than 56 field goal attempts in any of their last five games (in that game where they gave up 56, Florida State knocked down only 19 of them). Pitt has dropped each of its last four games both SU and ATS. It reached a high-water mark of only 25 made field goals over that stretch. Away from its home floor this season, the Panthers averaged a woeful 20 made field goals per game, having a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting just 50 field goals per contest in 'away' games. While Boston College at least showed some signs of life defensively in the final few weeks of the season, Pitt got torched for 26, 32, 32 and 27 made field goals over its final four games. The 27 allowed against Notre Dame in its regular season finale came on just 48 attempts. In fact, the Panthers last three opponents all shot better than 55% from the field. While Pitt did manage to split the regular season series against Boston College that was only thanks to getting to the free throw line 28 times in its home matchup (a game the Panthers won by just two points, failing to cover as three-point favorites). BC took the return match in Chestnut Hill by 13 points as a 3.5-point favorite on January 30th. Take Boston College (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Purdue-Fort Wayne at 9:30 pm et on Monday. |
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03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Spurs enter Monday's game riding a four-game losing streak. They certainly haven't quit on the season though. That's evident by the fact that they've poured in 100+ points in nine straight games. The Spurs continue to apply a ton of pressure on opposing defenses, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in 10 consecutive contests. While they've continued to give up plenty of points as well, we have seen some signs of a potential turnaround, noting that they've held their last four opponents to 83, 89, 84 and 91 FG attempts. The Lakers are in a fairly obvious letdown spot here after a big upset win over the Warriors at home on Saturday. Consistency has certainly not been a part of the Lakers vocabulary this season and I expect that to hold true here. Note that Los Angeles has yielded 92+ FG attempts in three of its last four games, giving up 123, 109, 132 and 116 points over that stretch. Offensively, we've seen the Lakers manage to get off fewer than 90 FG attempts in four straight games, fortunate to knock down 40+ in each of their last two contests. There's not a lot of margin for error when it comes to the Lakers, especially with Anthony Davis remaining sidelined. Here, we'll note that the Lakers are just 13-28 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons and 9-18 ATS off a victory of any kind this season. The Spurs, meanwhile, are 38-24 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 235 | Top | 81-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We just saw a track meet between these two teams two nights ago on this floor as the T'Wolves rolled to a 135-121 victory. Minnesota is on an incredible offensive run right now, having scored 127+ points in four straight games. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries - too many to mention. With that in mind, I'm not convinced either will be interested in another track meet on Monday. Note that the Blazers have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, they've gotten off 85 or less FG attempts themselves in four of their last five contests, held to 34 or fewer made field goals in three of those games. As I mentioned, the T'Wolves are on a scoring tear and have seen the 'over' cash in five straight games. The pace of play doesn't necessarily bear it out, however, noting that Minnesota has held four of its last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. It has actually done a nice job defensively at home all season, giving up an average of just 38 made field goals per game on just north of 43% shooting. I expect this lofty total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the 76ers most recent game on Saturday in Miami with that result snapping their streak of six straight 'overs'. I believe the total will prove too high once again on Monday as the Sixers return home to host the reeling Bulls. Chicago desperately needs to stop the bleeding, having lost four straight games. The turnaround needs to start at the defensive end of the floor as they check in having allowed 112+ points in each of those four losses. Note that Chicago has allowed just 107.5 points per game after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons with those games totalling an average of 219.1 points. Note that despite allowing a boatload of points, the Bulls have done a better job of keeping their opponents scoring opportunities in check over the last three games, allowing 81, 84 and 88 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had allowed 90+ FG attempts in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, the Bulls have shot the lights out over their last three games; 49%, 59% and 50%, respectively. I don't expect that to continue against a Sixers defense that has allowed fewer than 40 made field goals and less than 90 FG attempts in four of their last five games. Prior to Saturday's loss, Philadelphia had scored 123+ points in five straight games. Its pace certainly didn't support those gawdy point totals, noting that it got off 82 or fewer FG attempts in four of those five contests. Regression caught up with the Sixers on Saturday (I realize James Harden sat that game out, a key contributing factor as well) as they scored just 82 points on 34% shooting. While the 'over' has cashed in two of three previous meetings between these two teams this season, none of those games went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
American Athletic Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida enters Sunday's game against Temple on the heels of three consecutive ATS wins. While the Bulls have endured a tough season on the whole, they have undoubtedly been playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. Note that they've done a tremendous job defensively, limiting their last five opponents to 20, 22, 16, 19 and 24 made field goals. Meanwhile, Temple has sagged in that department lately, allowing at least 23 made field goals in five of its last six contests. The Owls offense had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down in their most recent game, falling by an 84-46 score at Houston. South Florida isn't Houston, but the fact is the Owls have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in four of their last five games. Keep in mind, the first time these two teams met this season South Florida prevailed by a 52-49 score, limiting Temple to just 18-of-49 from the field. There's actually plenty of room for improvement from the USF offense here after it knocked down only 20-of-55 FG attempts in that victory. The Bulls enter this game on a streak of nine straight games hitting at least 20 field goals. That's no big accomplishment for most teams, but it's certainly more than can be said for Temple which has been held to 18 or less field goals twice in its last seven contests. Here, we'll note that Temple checks in 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss in which it scored 60 points or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 10.0 points in that situation. Take South Florida (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We missed by the narrowest of margins with the 'under' in Stanford's last game against one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Arizona. Credit the Cardinal for at least slowing the Wildcats down enough to stay inside the pointspread in that game but it wasn't enough to keep it 'under' the total. Nevertheless, we'll go back to the well with the same play here as the Cardinal stay on the road to face a much slower-paced opponent in Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed just 22 made field goals on average here at home this season, limiting opponents to just under 64 points per game. Going back to February 12th, they've yielded just 18, 19, 21, 21, 21, 23 and 18 made field goals in their last seven contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at a 5-2 clip over that stretch. While Arizona has also been shooting the ball well, fueling its current three-game winning streak and 6-1 run, I do think Stanford will pose a challenge here. The Cardinal have limited each of their last six opponents to 27 made field goals or fewer. Perhaps more importantly, they've been able to limit scoring opportunities in general, holding the opposition to 55 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five games. Unfortunately for them, it hasn't translated to victories as their offense has been uneven at best, knocking down 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Wildcats up-tempo style was really the only thing that afforded Stanford the ability to approach 30 made field goals and 70 points last time out. I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that Stanford was held to 19-of-50 shooting, albeit in a winning effort, in its first meeting with Arizona State this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Dartmouth v. Harvard OVER 129.5 | Top | 76-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Harvard at 2 pm et on Saturday. When these teams matched up for the first time this season they combined to score only 119 points and as a result we're working with a lower posted total for this rematch. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair between the Big Green and Crimson. After a major offensive lull from January into early February, Dartmouth has started 'filling it up' again lately, knocking down 23, 28, 26 and 28 field goals in its last four contests, scoring 70+ points in three of those games. I'm confident the Big Green can continue their surge against a Harvard squad that has allowed 25+ made field goals in four of its last five games. On the flip side, we've seen the Crimson perform well offensively lately as well, even if the wins haven't come. They're coming off back-to-back losses but have knocked down 29, 28 and 29 field goals in their last three games, scoring 77, 67 and 73 points along the way. Note that Dartmouth hit only six three-pointers in its first meeting with Harvard this season but averages nine made threes per contest on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns most recent game - a 120-90 win over the Blazers two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Friday, however, as Phoenix hosts the reeling Knicks. New York has essentially stopped playing defense entirely, checking in having allowed 111 points or more in 11 consecutive games. The Knicks are coming off consecutive matchups with the 76ers with Philadelphia putting up 125 and 123 points without hardly breaking a sweat. Philadelphia actually let up in those two contests, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals, yet still managed to get well north of 120 points in both games. While the Suns are without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker, they're still capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard against bad defensive teams, as they showed in scoring 120 points against Portland on Wednesday. Note that Cam Payne made his return to the lineup in that game and while he contributed only five points, he was a difference-maker in 20 minutes of action, dishing out eight assists in the victory. I look for the Suns to continue to force the issue here without Booker and Paul, with consecutive home losses against the Pelicans and Jazz still fresh in their minds. While the Knicks aren't stopping anyone right now, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 100 or more points in 13 consecutive games. The duo of Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett continue to pad their stats on a nightly basis. They put up 108 points against a good Sixers defense despite getting only three points on 1-of-8 shooting from Evan Fournier two nights ago. Fournier is a streaky shooter but generally bounces back from bad performances. Just two games ago he shot 9-of-16 from the field in a 24-point effort. The Suns are a quality defensive team and allow just 105.6 points per game on the season, however they've given up 110.9 points per game when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with the 'over' cashing at a 23-12 clip in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 165 | Top | 56-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Toledo at 6:30 pm et on Friday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it. While we're dealing with a very high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Bowling Green hasn't had any success in slowing the pace although I'm not sure it really has any interest in doing so. The Falcons have allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against BGSU, knocking down 28, 34, 44, 28, 27, 28 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Enter Toledo. The Rockets have lit it up, making good on 105 field goals in their last three games alone, scoring 92, 88 and 92 points in those three contests. The Rockets play at an even faster pace than the Falcons, yielding 63+ field goal attempts to opponents in six of their last seven games. That should open the door for the Falcons capable offense to go off as well in an effort to keep up. BGSU has been fairly consistent offensively, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Friday's contest. The Falcons didn't shoot particularly well in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but still made good on 30 FG attempts including 10 from beyond the arc for 78 points in a game that totalled 169 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 116.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and San Diego State at 11 pm et on Thursday. There are times where the oddsmakers simply can't set a total low enough (or high enough) and I feel this is such a spot. Fresno State checks in off a relatively high-scoring 71-68 win over New Mexico last time out. Meanwhile, San Diego State has seen its last two games go 'over' the total. That only helps to keep this number in a playable range for us on Thursday. Both teams are capable of playing stout defense and slowing the game to a crawl. In fact, they prefer it that way. Fresno State has held opponents to an average of 22-of-50 shooting on the road this season while San Diego State has been even better here at home, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-53 field goals and only five made threes per game. While both teams are capable of 'filling it up' against the weaker teams in the Mountain West, that's rarely been the case in matchups with the conference's power teams. Note that the first meeting between the Bulldogs and Aztecs this season totalled just 105 points. We saw just 37 combined field goals made in that contest. The only thing that ended up boosting the total north of the century mark was the fact that the two teams knocked down 15 threes. Keep in mind, Fresno State and San Diego State combine to average just 12 made threes per game this season so a repeat performance isn't necessarily a sure thing in that regard. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Fresno coming off an ATS loss this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Aztecs following up consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 219 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams since the start of February and while I often suggest that familiarity lends itself to lower-scoring basketball, I don't believe that will be the case in this particular spot. The Lakers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total, helping keep this number in check on Thursday. Keep in mind, we're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in the most recent meeting between these two L.A. rivals just a week ago. The Clippers check in off three consecutive 'under' results. With that being said, they've actually been allowing opponents to get out and run, with each of their last five opponents getting off at least 90 field goal attempts. The fact that three of their last four games have come against the lowly Rockets has certainly contributed to their recent run of low-scoring games in my opinion. The last time these two teams met the Lakers got off 93 field goal attempts but knocked down less than 42% of them. I do look for them to improve on that shooting percentage here. What I'm not sure they can fix in short order is their defense, or lack thereof. The Lakers have yielded 40+ made field goals in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 43, 48, 40, 51, 41, 34 and 42 field goals in their last seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-5 with the Clips playing at home off a road win over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 226.2 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 with the Clippers coming off three consecutive games in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 235.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Pistons enter Thursday's game in Toronto riding a 4-0-1 'over' run. Going back a little further, the 'over' is 6-1-1 in their last eight contests. I'm not convinced the pace has been there to warrant such a run, however, and I expect the tide to turn on Thursday night. Note that none of Detroit's last six opponents have gotten off more than 89 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pistons have managed to shoot considerably better than their season average over their last three contests. I'm confident we'll see the Raptors defense step up and keep the Detroit offense in check here, noting that Toronto has limited eight of its last nine opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raps themselves have been playing at a fairly fast pace but I suspect they'll look to 'manage' proceedings a bit here, noting that this is the front half of a back-to-back, not to mention the middle of a stretch that will see them play seven games in 10 nights. Toronto has done a terrific job of limiting the oppositions scoring opportunities here at home this season, holding them to an average of 38-of-83 shooting, while giving up less than 106 points per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with Detroit coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average of only 212.6 total points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 29-9 with Toronto coming off two or more consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Suns are having a difficult time adjusting to life without Chris Paul, having dropped consecutive games at home against the Pelicans and Jazz. I am confident we'll see them 'get right' on Wednesday as they host a reeling Blazers squad, but I'm more comfortable playing the 'under' than I am laying the points. Note that Phoenix has allowed just 105.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (39-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 218.1 total points and a 14-25 o/u record. When coming off an 'over' result this season, we've seen the Suns give up just 104 points per contest, leading to an average total of 218.5 points (28-game sample size). The Blazers check in allowing 112.6 points per game on the season, but that number drops to 109.4 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, leading to an o/u record of 5-14 in that spot. This is a game the Suns will want to 'manage' as it tips off a stretch of five games in eight nights (in four different cities). Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, and with a number of key injuries including one to Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers have managed to score only 95 and 92 points in two games since the All-Star break. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +7 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockets took the Clippers down to the wire two nights ago, ultimately losing that game by a single point. While Houston has now lost nine consecutive games, it continues to do a nice job of controlling the tempo of the opposition, limiting four of its last five opponents to sub-90 field goal attempts. The problem is, the opposition has been making the most of those attempts, with 12 of its last 13 opponents shooting better than 50% from the field. The good news is, the Rockets limited the Clippers to 44% shooting on Sunday, giving them something to build off of here. Note that the Clips are at the opposite end of the spectrum, having allowed four straight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. I certainly expect to see Houston improve on its 38% shooting effort on Sunday. Los Angeles enters this game off of three consecutive wins but is just 5-14 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case here, and has actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 points in that spot. All told, the Clips are 14-18 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by 2.3 points per game. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey Tech and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these offenses are slumping right now and given the first meeting between the two squads this season totalled only 127 points, I'm not expecting anything resembling a track meet on Tuesday. New Jersey Tech has topped out at 24 made field goals in its last six games with that performance coming last time out, in a game in which it hoisted up 63 field goal attempts and still scored just 63 points. Stony Brook has made just 22, 18 and 24 field goals in its last three contests. We have seen the Sea Wolves tighten things up defensively over that stretch, however, yielding a grand total of just 63 made field goals over those three games. New Jersey Tech's last two opponents have shot the lights out, leading directly to a pair of 'over' results. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either of those contests and I don't believe it will be in Tuesday's game either. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
SEC Regular Season Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Georgia enters Tuesday's clash with Tennessee having seen the 'over' cash in five straight games and I look for that streak to continue here. The Vols should have little trouble 'filling it up' against the Bulldogs, noting that Georgia has allowed 30+ made field goals in five straight games. In fact, each of the Dawgs last three opponents have shot better than 51% from the field. The Vols will be looking to 'get right' offensively after struggling a bit with their shooting over their last five contests. I have no doubt that the Georgia defense will be the cure for what ails them. We have seen Tennessee make a concerted effort to push the pace over the last couple of games, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in consecutive wins over Missouri and Auburn. That quicker pace should open the door for the Bulldogs to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Note that despite Georgia's recent struggles, it has shot reasonably well despite a slew of slower-paced contests. Also note that the Vols do send opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game on the road this season while Georgia has shown the ability to get there with some consistency at home, averaging 21 attempts per contest on this floor. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over New Mexico at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State finally snapped a four-game losing streak with a 65-40 blowout victory over Air Force last time out. I look for the Bulldogs to build on that positive result with another lopsided victory on Monday against New Mexico. The Lobos snapped a three-game losing streak of their own with a narrow victory over Air Force last Thursday. That came at home. The Lobos are just 2-10 on the road this season and have had little success in slowing opposing offenses, allowing 28 made field goals per game on better than 48% shooting. That's not to mention the fact that they're sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 23 times per contest on the road this season. On the flip side, Fresno State allows just 19-of-50 shooting here at home this season, including only six made three-pointers per game and 13 free throw attempts per contest. The Bulldogs have held each of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts so I don't envision New Mexico enjoying a ton of quality scoring opportunities in tonight's game. Fresno State took the first meeting between these two teams by five points back in late January. The Lobos had nine more field goal attempts than the Bulldogs in that game but I expect that script to flip in this one. Take Fresno State (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson at 7 pm et on Monday. The fact that this is a matchup between two bottom-dwellers in the NEC has most expecting a rather sloppy, low-scoring affair. I'm not so easily convinced. Rather than simply 'play out the string', we saw Fairleigh Dickinson throw caution to the wind down the stretch and it all started with a wild 91-82 loss against the same opponent it will face on Monday, Central Connecticut State, back on February 5th. Including that contest, FDU scored 82, 65, 82, 44, 93, 88 and 77 points. The Knights have essentially been stuffing boxscores since late January. They should have little trouble terrorizing a Central Connecticut defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. The question here is whether CCU can do its part to help this one 'over' the total. Given that it shot 50% on 64 field goal attempts when these two teams last met earlier this month and the fact that FDU has yielded 60+ FG attempts in six of its last eight games, allowing 30+ made field goals in half of those contests, I believe it can. We're dealing with a short pointspread for a reason in this game in my opinion, and I'm confident that the Blue Devils can 'fill it up' against a vulnerable FDU defense and ultimately keep within arm's reach, helping generate a flurry of late scoring as well, even if we may not even need that support. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Massachusetts v. Fordham -2 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Month. My selection is on Fordham minus the points over UMass at 7 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for Fordham as it looks to bounce back from an ugly performance at Davidson on Saturday. The Rams knocked down only 12-of-49 field goals in that contest, unable to build off consecutive home victories in their previous two games. I do expect a much stronger effort here as they host a reeling UMass squad on Monday. The Minutemen have dropped back-to-back games by 21 and 15-point margins. Opponents have absolutely been 'filling it up' against the UMass defense, pouring in 28+ made field goals in five of its last six games. On the flip side, Fordham has given up fewer than 20 made field goals in three of its last five games. Even in Saturday's blowout loss at Davidson, the Rams still gave up just 22 made field goals. They've held four of their last five opponents to sub-38% shooting from the field. That's nothing new. Fordham allows an average of just 23 made field goals, including only six from beyond the arc, and sends opponents to the free throw line only 16 times per contest here at home this season. That's all key as any success the Minutemen has had this season has generally been on the strength of its three-point (10 made per game) and free-throw shooting (20 trips to the line per contest). Take Fordham (10*). |
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02-27-22 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Hornets have absolutely abused the Pistons defense in two previous meetings this season, scoring 140+ points in both games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Since giving up 141 points in a blowout loss at home against the Hornets on February 11th, the Pistons have held their last four opponents to 103, 111, 103 and 113 points. Their offense remains unreliable, noting that they've been held under 100 points three times over their last nine games and check in averaging just 101.2 points per game on the road this season. Worse still, they average just 100.6 points per contest when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Hornets went into the All-Star break losers of three games in a row but did respond with a 125-93 victory over the Raptors in their first game back on Friday. That marked the first time since January 21st they held an opponent to under 100 points and gives them something to build on heading into Sunday's game. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Hornets playing at home off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 215.2 points. The 'over' is 2-0-1 in the Pistons last three games overall but the pace really hasn't been there, noting that two of Detroit's last three opponents got off just 77 field goal attempts while Detroit attempted just 86 and 87 field goals in its last two contests. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season. Note that the 'under' is 21-12 with Detroit playing with double-revenge this season, resulting in an average total of just 212.1 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montana State and Montana at 5 pm et on Saturday. Montana enters this game on the heels of seven consecutive 'over' results. With that in mind, we're not seeing a major adjustment to the total compared to the first meeting between these two in-state rivals this season, despite that contest reaching just 125 total points (that game saw a closing total of 137.5). Montana has been a different team at home compared to on the road, absolutely locking down the opposition, allowing just 20 made field goals per game including only five from beyond the arc. While the Grizzlies have scored 70+ points in three consecutive games entering Sunday's contest, that's been the exception rather than the rule as they eclipsed that mark in only seven of their previous 14 conference games this season. Montana State currently leads the Big Sky Conference with a 13-3 record and has certainly been 'filling it up' lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. It shot better than 50% from the field but still scored 'only' 66 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. In that game, the Bobcats only managed to get off 45 field goal attempts (they also got to the free throw line 19 times, two shy of their season average). Off consecutive losses and sinking in the Big Sky standings, I do expect Montana to put up a serious fight in this game, as the line would indicate and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-22 | South Dakota State v. UMKC +7.5 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over South Dakota State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the home underdog in this matchup between two red hot Summit League teams. South Dakota State has of course been the class of the conference all season, going undefeated to this point at 17-0. That includes a 32-point rout of Kansas City back on December 20th. Kansas City enters this game on a serious roll, however, having won eight consecutive games ATS. The Roos have done a tremendous job of locking down the opposition here at home, allowing just 21 made field goals per game on only 51 attempts. That includes just 5-of-19 shooting from beyond the arc. South Dakota State obviously has the offense to test those numbers but also finds itself in a tough spot, playing on just one day of rest following a wild 106-102 road win at Oral Roberts on Thursday. While the Jackrabbits are certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, I like the fact that the Roos come in on a heater as well, having shot better than 51% from the field in five of their last eight games and averaging just shy of 80 points per game on 48% shooting at home this season. Kansas City's recent success hasn't come out of nowhere as it is actually 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games against Summit League opposition. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Loyola-Chicago and Northern Iowa at 6 pm et on Saturday. The opposition has been absolutely filling it up against Northern Iowa lately, knocking down 35. 26, 29 and 32 field goals in the Panthers last four games, leading to a 3-1 o/u record over that stretch. There's little reason to think Loyola-Chicago can't add to the Panthers defensive woes here, as it comes in off an 82-point explosion against Evansville and has scored 70+ points in four of its last five contests. The question here is whether Northern Iowa can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably-priced total. I believe the Panthers can as they come into this one after scoring 72, 95 and 88 points over the course of a three-game winning streak. They scored only 58 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season (that game still got into the 140's) but shot just 40% from the field and got to the free throw line only six times in that game. In fact, we saw just six made free throws in that contest (the two teams combine to average 26 made free throws per game this season). With this total sitting in the 130's, I believe we have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Take the over (10*). |
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02-26-22 | San Francisco -13 v. San Diego | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over San Diego at 5 pm et on Saturday. After hanging tough through the early stages of conference play, San Diego has 'let go of the rope' so to speak, dropping five of its last six games SU (0-5-1 ATS). Opponents have absolutely abused the Toreros defense of late, knocking down 30+ field goals in four of those last six games. Things certainly won't get any easier against a San Francisco squad that will be looking to get back on track after a tough loss against mighty Gonzaga two nights ago. While the Dons have been a little uneven of late, that's had more to do with a couple of tough matchups with the aforementioned Zags and St. Mary's than anything else. They've still managed to win by 16+ points in three of their last five contests. I fully expect to see San Francisco clamp down on the San Diego offense here, noting that it allows just 23 made field goals including only five per game from three-point range on the road this season. While the Toreros could elect to play a little faster than usual, that will only afford to the Dons more scoring opportunities, noting that they've put up 100+ points twice in their last five games. When these two teams last met in January, San Francisco led by 14 points at halftime before easing off the gas in the second half. I don't expect that same sort of story to unfold here as they look to 'get right' off Thursday's lopsided defeat. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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02-26-22 | Northern Illinois +17 v. Buffalo | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
MAC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Buffalo at 2 pm et on Saturday. I love that we're catching a boatload of points in this quick rematch between these two MAC squads on Saturday afternoon in Buffalo. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday as Northern Illinois at least held its own in a game that was reasonably competitive throughout (Buffalo eventually won by 11 points). The Huskies enter Saturday's game riding a five-game ATS winning streak but are still getting little respect from the oddsmakers. Buffalo, meanwhile, with its high-octane offense has become an overvalued commodity, dropping the cash in three consecutive games. While NIU is a poor 6-12 SU away from home this season, it has managed to post a solid 11-7 ATS mark. The Huskies have actually won outright as big underdogs in-conference at Kent State, Ball State and Akron with the latter two victories coming in the last two weeks. While the Huskies average only 22 made field goals per game including just six from beyond the arc on the road this season, they'll likely be afforded many more scoring opportunities than they're accustomed to here with Buffalo allowing opponents to get off 65 field goal attempts including 23 per game from three-point range here at home this season. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' recently I believe the extended All-Star break can serve as a 'catalyst for change' heading into Friday's showdown in Salt Lake City. While it's true the 'under' is 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games overall, it has also scored 103+ points in 10 of its last 11 games, only failing to reach the century mark in a tough back half of a two-game set against the Clippers (we noted that was a poor spot for Dallas and successfully backed Los Angeles in a 99-97 victory). The 'under' is 6-1 in Utah's last seven games. It has scored over 100 points in nine straight games, boosted by the recent returns of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Jazz have also given up 100+ points in nine of their last 11 games, only holding an undermanned Warriors squad and the lowly Magic under that scoring mark over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with Utah playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 217.4 points. Mavs road games have totalled an average of 221.7 points over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans entered the break on the heels of consecutive losses against the Grizzlies and Mavericks. Things won't get any easier as they head to Phoenix to face the Suns on Friday. With that being said, I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with New Orleans in this spot. Note that Phoenix is fresh off a blowout win in Oklahoma City last night. As I expected, we saw the Suns really force the issue offensively in that one, looking to erase any doubt of how they will perform in the absence of Chris Paul. Here, I think things might get a little tougher playing the second of back-to-backs against a Pelicans squad that can hold its own offensively, boosted by the pre-trade deadline acquisition of C.J. McCollum. Note that Phoenix checks in 3-12 ATS when playing at home after winning four or five of its last six games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by just 5.5 points on average in that spot (compared to 9.3 points overall at home this season). Additionally, when coming off an ATS cover as a double-digit favorite over the last two seasons, the Suns have only managed to outscore their next opponent by an average margin of 1.2 points. The Pelicans check in having been outscored by just 0.4 points on average when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here (20-game sample size). Also note that the Pelicans have outscored opponents by 0.3 points on average when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, also the case here (41-game sample size). Take New Orleans (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Arkansas State at 8 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 115 points and while we're dealing with a small adjustment to the posted total in this one (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 134.5) I don't believe it will prove to be enough. Arkansas State enters this game off a five-point loss at home against Coastal Carolina as it performed poorly defensively, allowing the Chanticleers to eclipse the 70-point mark and shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves allow just 62.7 points per game on an average of only 23 made field goals including just five from beyond the arc here at home this season. Appalachian State is fresh off consecutive wins and scored 78 points in a double-digit victory over Arkansas-Little Rock last time out. The Mountaineers knocked down 32 field goals in that contest - the first time they hit more than 27 field goals in a game since posting 33 back in mid-January against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers average only 65.1 ppg on the road this season where they're good for an average of 24 made field goals including seven from three-point range, not to mention only 14 trips per contest to the free throw line. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit OVER 144 | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Detroit at 7 pm et on Thursday. Cleveland State is on an incredible 'over' run right now, with seven of its last eight games finding their way 'over' the total with one 'push' mixed in. The Vikings have scored 85, 84, 75, 83, 98, 78 and 79 points over that stretch and I don't see the Detroit Titans doing much to slow them down here. I do think the Titans can stick around, however, and I'm certainly not alone with this pointspread sitting near a pk'em. The Titans play reasonably fast at home, and get off an average of 30 three-point attempts per game, knocking down 12 of them. If they play their cards right, they should also be afforded plenty of opportunities at the free throw line, with Cleveland State sending opponents to the charity stripe an average of 22 times per game on the road this season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 142 points but that contest was played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating tonight, not to mention the fact that Detroit knocked down only 4-of-21 three-point attempts, a performance I'm certain it can and will improve on here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Cleveland State coming off a double-digit victory over a conference opponent this season, leading to an average total of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-22 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 141.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and UCF at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Cincinnati has seen the 'over' cash in six straight games entering Wednesday's matchup with the Golden Knights in Orlando. The Bearcats have scored 70+ points in five straight games but clearly what they're doing right now isn't working as they've lost five of their last eight contests, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. I do think that UCF will be able to slow the Bearcats down, noting that the Knights allow an average of only 23 made field goals and 14 free throw attempts per game here at home this season. The 'under' has cashed in UCF's last two games and it checks in having given up fewer than 70 points in five of its last seven contests. Only one of the two games where the Knights did allow 70 or more points over that stretch found its way 'over' the total. Interestingly, Cincinnati has been at its absolute best defensively on the road this season, giving up only 23 made field goals including just three made threes per game away from home. With that being said, it has had an issue with sending opponents to the charity stripe, yielding 23 free throw attempts per game on the road. Can the Knights exploit that? I'm not so sure. UCF averages only 17 free throw attempts per contest overall and just 14 per game at home. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season and it's worth noting that we're working with a higher posted total than we saw in either of last season's two meetings. Those two games went 'over' the total but only one eclipsed the number we're working with here. That being said, seven of the last eight meetings between these two quads here in Orlando have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-22 | Kansas State +12.5 v. Kansas | Top | 83-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over Kansas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Wildcats as they head to Allen Fieldhouse to challenge the rival Jayhawks on Tuesday night. Kansas State enters this game off three consecutive ATS wins but dropped a three-point decision at Oklahoma on Saturday, just staying inside the pointspread in the SU defeat. The Wildcats have shot sub-40% from the field in their last two games - one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. Note that they've gone 4-1 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive games shooting below 40% from the field this season. They allowed Oklahoma to shoot 51.9% from the field in Saturday's narrow loss. That's happened only twice previously this season and in their next game they've allowed opponents to shoot just 40-for-109 (36.7%) from the field. I realize they're facing a difficult challenge here against an elite Kansas squad. However, it is worth noting that the Jayhawks come into this game having scored 70+ points in six consecutive games. Prior to that stretch, Kansas had scored 70+ points in just four of its first seven Big 12 contests this season. Obviously, it would be an uphill battle for the Jayhawks to cover a pointspread as large as the one we're looking at tonight without scoring 70+ points. It's also notable that the Jayhawks have held three straight opponents to fewer than 70 points. They did so just once previously in Big 12 play this season and in their next game posted a close 78-75 win over tonight's opponent, Kansas State. The difference in that game was a 30-18 (21-11 made) free throw disparity in favor of the Jayhawks. I do have confidence that Kansas State can narrow that gap in tonight's game, while also keeping the game's pace in check, much like it did in the first meeting this season, helping ultimately keep the final score inside the number. Here, we'll note that the Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS after giving up 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 3.7 points on average in that spot. Take Kansas State (7*). |
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02-21-22 | Liberty v. Central Arkansas OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Liberty and Central Arkansas at 8 pm et on Monday. Central Arkansas checks into this game off three consecutive 'under' results but remains one of the fastest-paced teams in the entire country, ranking 13th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. A look at its home conference games shows totals of 181, 177, 167, 188, 154, 148 and 159 points. Liberty is coming off a tougher-than-expected 88-82 win over Stetson on Saturday. The Flames don't play at nearly the same break-neck pace as Central Arkansas but as we saw on Saturday, they're certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. That's thanks in large part to the fact that they knock down 11 three-pointers per game with not much of a drop-off in production at all on the road this season. Central Arkansas will certainly afford Liberty plenty of opportunities in this contest, noting that it yields 24 three-point attempts and 20 trips to the free throw line at home this season. It's worth noting that it has held three straight opponents to fewer than 80 points as it marks the first time that has happened all season. Don't count on the Bears accomplishing that feat for a fourth consecutive game on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-22 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -3 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green minus the points over Ball State at 5 pm et on Saturday. We faded Bowling Green last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided win by Miami-Ohio. That was on the road, where the Falcons have struggled all season. They do at least own a winning record at 8-5 here at home. They'll be looking to avenge a tough 81-80 loss on the road against Ball State back on New Year's Day. The two teams were virtual mirror images of one another on that day, with the exception being Ball State was able to knock down a few more of its shots. Here, we'll note that the Cardinals have struggled on the road this season, going 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS. While Ball State was able to keep pace with Bowling Green at home, we should see a different story unfold here. Note that the Falcons average a blistering 87.2 points per game on their home floor. Ball State, meanwhile, has allowed opponents to shoot just shy of 47% from the field on the road, giving up north of 82 points per contest. With Ball State checking in a woeful 3-13 ATS when listed as a road underdog or 'pk going back to last season, we'll confidently back the hometown Falcons here. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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02-16-22 | Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 137 | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 80+ point performances in winning efforts on Saturday. I don't expect either side to sniff out that number on Wednesday, however. Those respective 'over' results snapped two-game 'under' streaks for both teams. They also served to give us a bit of a higher total to work than we might have otherwise seen here considering the first meeting between the Bears and Red Raiders this season saw a closing total of just 135.5 in a game that totalled only 127 points. Texas Tech pulled off a stunning 65-62 upset victory in that one, thanks in large part to shooting just shy of 51% from the field. It will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance here as Baylor has locked in defensively ever since that 83-59 loss in Kansas a week-and-a-half ago. Since then, the Bears have held Kansas State and Texas to 60 and 63 points, respectively, on a combined 41-of-115 (35.6%) shooting. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Texas Tech allowed more than 70 points. It has done a tremendous job on defense here at home this season, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-52 shooting on average while giving up just a shade over 58 points per game. In last year's meeting on this floor, Texas Tech held Baylor to just 68 points on 41.8% shooting but ultimately fell by a 68-60 score. Take the under (10*). |
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02-16-22 | Pistons v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Celtics are arguably the hottest team in the league right now and enter this game off a 135-87 drubbing of the Sixers in Philadelphia last night. With this being their last game prior to the All-Star break, I expect them to 'manage' proceedings wisely. Yes, last night's 135-point outburst was impressive but let's face it, the Sixers simply didn't show up, essentially laying down after falling behind early. Offensively explosions like that haven't been commonplace for the C's. They did have another similar performance in Brooklyn last week but followed it up by scoring just 108 and 105 points during a brief two-game homestand. Boston has actually been a slightly lower-scoring team at home compared to only the road this season, averaging 108.1 points per game. The 'under' is 18-12 at TD Garden this season with an average total of just 210.8 points. As for the Pistons, they managed to score only 94 points against a struggling Wizards squad last time out. They're just three games removed from scoring 86 points in a lopsided loss in Dallas and put up only 93 points at home against these same Celtics back on February 4th (that game totalled only 195 points). They've shot sub-38% in three of their last six games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-21 with the Pistons seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with the Celtics coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of only 203.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics are absolutely rolling right now, winners of eight games in a row, going 5-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Keep in mind, they were favored by at least six points in all eight of those contests. They'll face their toughest challenge in weeks on Tuesday night, as they go up against a rested 76ers squad that hasn't taken the floor since posting an impressive double-digit win over the Cavs on Saturday night. It seems as though the Philadelphia bandwagon was cleared thanks to last week's home loss to the Suns. That's not to mention the fact that James Harden remains sidelined after coming over in last week's blockbuster trade with the Nets. Note that Boston is just 13-15 SU on the road this season, including a 111-99 loss here in Philadelphia back in mid-January - a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The 76ers are a modest 16-12 at home this season but have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points per game. Here, we'll note that Boston is a woeful 5-16 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in that spot. Philadelphia on the other hand has gone a terrific 40-26 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-14-22 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I'm not convinced either of these teams want to get involved in a track meet on Monday night. The Warriors will be playing for the fourth time in the last six nights after dropping two of their last three games. The 'over' has cashed in their last two contests as they uncharacteristically struggled to contain the Knicks and Lakers offenses, allowing 116 and 115 points. Here, they'll catch the Clippers just one day removed from a hard-fought 99-97 win in Dallas to snap a three-game skid. L.A. isn't going to be at full strength for this game with newly-acquired Norman Powell sidelined due to a toe injury and Luke Kennard questionable to play as well. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-8 with the Warriors coming off an ATS loss this season with those games totalling an average of just 209.3 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-4 clip after losing three of their last four games ATS this season, resulting in an average total of just 205.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-22 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Mountain West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Sunday. Boise State is one of the stingiest home teams in the country, allowing just 53 field goal attempts per game (17 from beyond the arc) while sending opponents to the free throw line only 14 times per game. Yet here the Broncos are, coming off four consecutive 'over' results, with their last two games being played right here in Boise. I believe that has helped push this total a little too high. Colorado State isn't going to overwhelm anyone with its pace. In fact, the Rams play at an almost identical tempo to that of the Broncos. While they do average 73 points per game away from home, I don't see them coming close to that number against a Boise State defense that allows less than 60 points per game here at home. The Rams are fresh off a game that totalled just 115 points in a lopsided victory over Fresno State. They actually check in having shot 51% or better from the field in consecutive games but again, I don't see them approaching that level of success here. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with Colorado State involved in a game with a total set between 130 and 139.5 points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-22 | Stony Brook v. Maine UNDER 139.5 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
CBB America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Stony Brook and Maine at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 152 points but that's been far from the norm in this series with the last 10 matchups averaging a total of just 130 points. Stony Brook enters this game off a wild 87-85 win over UMass-Lowell - also not the norm for the Seawolves this season, noting that their previous three contests had all stayed 'under' the total. Stony Brook has had a bit of a difficult time controlling opponents' tempo on the road but shouldn't have such trouble here against a Maine squad that doesn't tend to get out and run here at home, averaging 56 field goal attempts per game (20 from three-point range) and gets to the free throw line an average of just 14 times per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We settled for a push with the Clippers in the front half of this two-game set in Dallas. We were somewhat fortunate as the Clips trailed that game virtually the entire way and Luka Doncic went off for 51 points. Here, I'm confident in Los Angeles' ability to make the necessary adjustments and close the gap in a quick rematch on Saturday. Despite Doncic's incredible performance, there actually wasn't all that much separating the two teams on Thursday. Dallas knocked down four more threes (on 16 more attempts) and also made good on five more free throws. Note that the Clippers are a terrific 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points on average in that situation. In 35 previous occasions where Dallas played at home off an ATS win over the last two seasons, it has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. After allowing 105 points or less in their previous contest this season, the Mavs have outscored opponents by just 1.2 points on average (30-game sample size). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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02-12-22 | Sacred Heart -1.5 v. Fairleigh Dickinson | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
CBB NEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacred Heart minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 1 pm et on Saturday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a worse Division I college basketball team than Fairleigh Dickinson this season. KenPom ranks them ahead of only eight other teams in the country and I think even that is a fairly forgiving ranking. The Knights lone victory since the start of January came against another awful NEC squad in Central Connecticut State. Sacred Heart certainly doesn't bring much 'wow factor' either but it has at least been playing competitive basketball in-conference. Just one week ago it pulled out a hard-fought overtime win on the road against St. Francis-Brooklyn and just two nights prior to that took LUI-Brooklyn down to the wire in a 79-75 road loss. These two teams just met back on January 15th with Sacred Heart prevailing by a score of 77-71. FDU lost that game by six points despite getting off a whopping 70 field goal attempts compared to Sacred Heart's 56. The Knights also won the turnover battle by a 14-11 margin in that game. I don't expect them to repeat either of those feats on Saturday as I look for Sacred Heart to dictate the tempo and ultimately pick up a win to gain some ground in the NEC (it enters Saturday's action just a half-game out of fifth place while FDU sits in last place). Take Sacred Heart (10*). |
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02-10-22 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 107-131 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are playing as well as any team in the league right now, winners of four straight games both SU and ATS, scoring 130+ points in each of their last three contests. Ordinarily, I might look to fade a team on such a run but not in this spot as Milwaukee wraps up its four-game road trip with a game it will have no difficulty getting up for against the team in defeated in last year's NBA Finals - the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are playing well. They've lost just one game going all the way back to January 11th. With that being said, they're just an even 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games. The Bucks might be without Grayson Allen for this game after he suffered a hip injury but the Suns continue to play on without underrated contributor Cam Payne as well. While the Bucks might be a little road weary at the end of this trip, the Suns will be playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities. Phoenix is obviously one of the best teams in the league - at times THE best team in the league this season. However, the Bucks found a way to make the Suns look very ordinary in reeling off four straight wins (after falling behind 2-0) in last year's Finals. Phoenix has outscored its opponents by an average margin of 7.6 points this season. However, it has only outscored opponents by 4.4 points on average when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Bucks have been an excellent 'positive momentum' play having averaged 120.2 points per game, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points when coming off consecutive double-digit victories over the last three seasons (48-game sample size). Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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02-10-22 | Hofstra v. Drexel -1 | Top | 83-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
CAA Game of the Year. My selection is on Drexel minus the points over Hofstra at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have been polar opposites in the luck department this season and as a result Hofstra checks in with the better overall record and a one-game edge in the Colonial Athletic Association. In fact, Hofstra ranks 106th in the country in luck rating - a metric developed by KenPom - while Drexel checks in 291st. With that being said, both teams come in off consecutive wins. I believe Drexel is better positioned to keep it going on Thursday, however, as it looks to avenge an earlier three-point loss at Hofstra back on January 17th. Note that the Dragons are 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.7 points on average. Better still, they're 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 4.6 points in that spot. Note that Hofstra gets to the free throw line five fewer times per game on the road than Drexel does at home, while also averaging one less made three-pointer per contest on two more attempts. Off consecutive emotional wins at home (one came in overtime against James Madison and the other by two points against UNC-Wilmington), I look for Hofstra to come up short on the road on Thursday. Take Drexel (10*). |
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02-09-22 | Warriors v. Jazz -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz have reeled off three straight wins on their current homestand but can't afford to let their guard down after they had lost 11 of their previous 13 contests. The Warriors, on the other hand, can afford to 'manage' things on a game-to-game basis and will once again sit Klay Thompson for this front half of a back-to-back set at the Jazz and back home against the Knicks. Remember, one week ago tonight the Warriors rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, essentially 'punting' the game against the Spurs but San Antonio was extremely forgiving, coughing up a 15-point fourth quarter lead in a four-point loss. I don't expect the Jazz to be nearly as forgiving on Wednesday. Utah has been one of the most streaky teams in the league from an ATS perspective in recent years and checks into this one having gone 18-7 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that spot. The Jazz have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since dropping a tough 94-92 decision in San Francisco back on January 23rd. Utah could have certainly used Donovan Mitchell in that game. In two games since returning from a concussion, Mitchell has contributed 59 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists in just 56 minutes of action. The Warriors have actually taken both previous meetings in this series this season and four in a row going back to last season. That sort of run of success in this series hasn't been common, however. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time Golden State won five straight matchups against the Jazz, and that included a four-game series sweep in the playoffs. Look for Utah to get back at the Warriors on Wednesday. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-09-22 | High Point v. Presbyterian UNDER 128 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between High Point and Presbyterian at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams are coming off very different results last time out as High Point outlasted UNC-Asheville by a 91-83 score in overtime while Presbyterian fell by a 74-69 score at Hampton. That most recent game was at home for High Point. It has struggled mightily on the road, winning just once in 10 tries. Presbyterian has proven to be a very frustrating team to play against, particularly on this floor, where it has held opponents to just 50 field goal attempts per game. For its part, High Point has had a tough time getting into any sort of rhythm on the road, getting off just 51 field goal attempts per contest. The Panthers also get to the free throw line five times less than their season average away from home. With all of that being said, High Point has also done a nice job of controlling the tempo on the road, giving up just 51 field goal attempts per game. In other words, I'm not expecting a free-flowing affair here. Presbyterian is actually coming off consecutive 'over' results - the first time we've seen that since December 6th and 12th. High Point's most recent game also found its way 'over' the total. We haven't seen consecutive games involving the Panthers go 'over' the total since December 29th and 31st with those two games coming against Michigan State and Kentucky (High Point allowed 81 and 92 points in those two games). Presbyterian has allowed just 57.7 points per game when playing at home off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons (six-game sample size), as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-6 with High Point having lost two of its last three games over the last two seasons (22-game sample size). Take the under (10*). |
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02-08-22 | Pistons v. Mavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I don't think a lot of bettors are rushing to back the 'over' in this low-key Tuesday non-conference affair. With that being said, I love the way the situation sets up. The Mavs have let their defense do the talking in their last two games, holding the 76ers and Hawks under 100 points in fairly comfortable victories. Here, I think Dallas will need its offense to do some of the heavy-lifting, noting that the Pistons have actually scored over 100 points in nine of their last 10 games, employing an up-tempo style, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games. Keep in mind, Detroit scored 117 and 105 points in a pair of matchups with Dallas last year with both of those contests flying 'over' the total. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-11 with Detroit coming off a game in which it scored 105 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 219.1 points. Better still, the 'over' is 12-4 with the Pistons off consecutive games scoring 105 points or less, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. As for the Mavs, the 'over' is a long-term 70-45 when they come off consecutive home victories, which is also the case tonight. The Mavs haven't been forced to play on consecutive nights since January 29th and 30th and inexplicably won't do so against until the third week of March. In other words, there's no need for them to 'manage' this game in the same way the Warriors did last night (as I noted in my analysis of that play on the GS-OKC 'under'). While Dallas is missing some key contributors, including Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr., it has still managed to score more than 100 points in six straight games. It's worth mentioning that the Mavs are also without one of their best defensive players in Maxi Kleber. The Pistons aren't slowing anyone down these days, allowing over 100 points in 12 consecutive contests and will be hard-pressed to improve on last year's two performances against Dallas in which they gave up 127 and 115 points. Finally, I'll note that the 'over' is 4-1 with the Pistons playing on the road off consecutive 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo OVER 148.5 | Top | 64-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
CBB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Buffalo enters this game off consecutive 'under' results. I expect that streak to be short-lived, however. No team has struggled more to control tempo (perhaps I should word that another way given the Bulls actually prefer to play at a fast pace), as Buffalo has allowed opponents to get off an incredible 68 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. Not surprisingly, Bulls home games have averaged north of 149 points per contest. Eastern Michigan doesn't operate at a blazing fast pace but it has picked it up after a couple of dismal campaigns, averaging just over 71 points per game this season. The Eagles are going to have to keep pace with the Bulls if they want to snap their current three-game skid on Tuesday. Note that Eastern Michigan has been held to 71 points or less in three straight games but this is a team that has scored 90+ points on three previous occasions this season and an arguably worse Eagles squad did manage to score 77 points (in a game that totalled 169) points in last year's meeting here in Buffalo. As I mentioned, the Bulls are coming off consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Keep in mind, the first of those two games came against one of the MAC's better teams in Ohio and the other against one of the conference's worst squads in Central Michigan. I look for a big bust-out performance from the Buffalo offense, noting that it averages just shy of 80 points per game at home this season, where it averages 28 three-point attempts per game (two more than its season average) and gets to the free throw line an average of 22 times per contest (four above its season average). EMU has allowed 80+ points in four of its last five games and has given up 90 or more points on three previous occasions this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 with Eastern Michigan coming off consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 150.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-07-22 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 212 | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. This is a game that Golden State can and likely will 'manage' as it begins a stretch of three games in four nights (in three different cities) between now and Thursday. The Warriors have been lighting it up offensively but actually check in having allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Considering they've only allowed four opponents to shoot better than 50% all season, that's notable. What better opponent to button things up defensively against than Oklahoma City? The Thunder have been held under 100 points in five of their last nine games overall and average just a shade over the century mark in terms of points per game at home this season. Oklahoma City is at home playing its third game in four nights tonight and doing so without a number of key contributors with the most notable being Shae Gilgeous-Alexander. Lu Dort remains questionable to play due to a nasal fracture but it does sound more likely that he'll be able to go. Nevertheless, the Warriors have held the Thunder to just 98 and 82 points in two previous meetings this season. In fact, they've held the Thunder under 100 points in four straight meetings in this series. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-14 with Golden State in the role of favorite this season and 32-15 in its last 47 games when playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-17 when the Thunder seek revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra OVER 145 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. Wilmington and Hofstra at 5 pm et on Monday. This will be the second meeting between these two teams in as many weeks after Wilmington prevailed by a 78-72 score at home on January 29th. The Seahawks are the surprising leaders in the CAA right now with head coach Takayo Siddle squeezing every last drop out of the talent he has at hand. As expected, Wilmington is playing fast and comes into this game off a 92-point explosion against William and Mary last time out. Of course, going up-tempo plays right into the hands of Hofstra, which checks in ranked 112th in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). Aaron Estrada has absolutely gone off for the Pride, most recently pouring in 35 points in Saturday's overtime win over James Madison. The Pride have scored 70+ points in six of their last seven games and come into this one on the heels of three straight 'over' results. Note that in that first meeting with Wilmington, the Pride knocked down only three of 18 three-point attempts. Considering they shoot 10-of-28 from beyond the arc here at home, I would expect a vast improvement over that performance here. Note that the Seahawks have held just one conference opponent to fewer than 70 points on the road this season, that being a highly-disappointing Northeastern squad in a game that still found its way 'over' the total. The 'over' has cashed in five of Wilmington's last seven games overall. Note that the second meeting between these two teams has been higher scoring than the first in each of the last three years in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-22 | Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 85-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. |
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02-06-22 | Providence v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgetown plus the points over Providence at 12 noon et on Sunday. Providence has now won six consecutive games, including an upset victory at St. John's last time out. Since defeating Georgetown by eight points (but failing to cover) on January 20th, the Friars have been involved in four straight highly-contested games against Butler, Xavier, Marquette and St. John's. It's going to be very difficult for Ed Cooley's team to avoid a letdown here. Meanwhile, the Hoyas haven't won a game since December 15th against Howard. They do check in 3-2-1 ATS over their last six games though and catch the Friars laying points on the road for the first time this season. Take Georgetown (10*). |
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