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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-16-21 | Rockets v. Hawks UNDER 232.5 | 95-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Hawks in their most recent game - a blowout victory over the Magic on Thursday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as Atlanta looks to clamp down on the undermanned, but surging Rockets, and close out the regular season on a positive note. Atlanta is locked in defensively right now, having held its last two opponents to 44.6% and 38.3% shooting. The Hawks have been an underrated defensive team at home all season, in fact, holding the opposition to 45.4% shooting. Here, I don't see much reason for Atlanta to really push the pace, especially against a Rockets squad that has thrived offensively in that sort of environment lately, scoring 120+ points in three consecutive games. In fact, Houston, checks in riding a five-game ATS winning streak, culminating with an outright upset win over the Clippers at home on Friday. Kelly Olynyk has led the charge lately but I look for the Hawks interior defense to put the clamps on him here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-16-21 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 222.5 | 117-128 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Friday's matchup between these two teams. I actually feel we deserved a better fate in that one as the 76ers did exactly what we expected them to do, holding the Magic to under 40% shooting. Unfortunately, Philadelphia went off offensively in that one and ultimately sent the game just a bucket over the total. Here, we're likely to see a number of Philadelphia's stars sit out but I still expect the Sixers to go hard defensively and keep a weak Magic offense at bay. This is a Doc Rivers-coached team after all. Orlando has been woeful offensively on the road, averaging 102.2 points per game on a miserable 42.2% shooting this season. We have seen the Magic continue to play hard defensively, however, holding five straight opponents to under 49% shooting entering this contest. Despite their 18-16 o/u record away from home, they've actually held the opposition to a respectable 46.1% in the visitors role this season. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in six of the last nine meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-21 | Lakers v. Pacers UNDER 228.5 | 122-115 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Indiana at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. We haven't seen enough of an adjustment made to Pacers totals as they've now seen three of their last six games total 213 points or less. Indiana is injury-ravaged at the moment with lots of question marks around who will be able to play on Saturday afternoon. Regardless, I'm not anticipating a peak performance from the Pacers offense here against a good Lakers defense coming off a rather poor showing against the lowly Rockets last time out. Note that when these two teams last met back in early March, when the Lakers had a healthy Lebron James, we saw just 205 total points in a arrow Los Angeles victory. The Lakers might get some help today with Lebron James, Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder all potentially returning to the floor, but again, I'm not expecting a truly cohesive performance from a team that has been highly-inconsistent down the stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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05-14-21 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 217 | 97-122 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the 76ers 106-94 loss in Miami last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Philadelphia looks to take another step toward locking up the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. The 76ers sit one game ahead of the Nets for top spot in the East with just this two-game home set against the lowly Magic remaining. I look for Philadelphia to clamp down defensively in this game after it allowed Miami to get off to a red hot start and cruise, shooting better than 50% from the field last night. Meanwhile, the 76ers haven't shot better than 48.8% from the field since May 5th in Houston. Note that Philadelphia held Orlando to just 92 points in its first meeting this season back on December 31st. That game totaled just 208 points and the Magic obviously had a lot more scoring punch on their roster at the time. Here, we find the Magic having shot 41.8% or worse from the field in five straight games and riding a three-game 'under' streak following last night's drubbing in Atlanta (we won with the Hawks in that game). Take the under (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 233 | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. This game sets up as a track meet with the Blazers playing the second of back-to-back nights off an upset win in Utah last night and the Suns returning home off a disappointing 0-2 road trip against the Lakers and Warriors. Portland got bogged down a bit offensively against a quality Jazz defense last night but should get plenty of good looks against a struggling Suns defense that checks in fourth-worst in the league in opponents floor percentage over their last three games. The Suns are in a prime bounce-back spot at home, where they average just shy of 117 points per game and shoot 49.5% as a team this season. They've absolutely torched the Blazers in two previous meetings this season, scoring 132 and 127 points. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams here in Phoenix. The 'over' is 20-8 with Portland revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-13-21 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 218.5 | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have inexplicably seen the 'over' cash in each of their last 10 games but I believe that streak will be put in jeopardy as they host the defensive-minded 76ers on Thursday night. The first two meetings in this series this season were both high-scoring games but those came back in the second week of January. The 76ers are in excellent defensive form right now, having allowed just 104.6 points per game on 44% shooting over their last five contests. Note that they've posted a 13-22 o/u record away from home this season. The Heat enter this game having shot better than 50% in each of their last three games and a blazing 57.3% and 59.3% in sweeping consecutive games in Boston in their last two contests. That's certainly not a sustainable trend, noting that the Heat average 107.9 points per game on 46.7% shooting this season. In the long-term picture, the 'under' has gone 97-59 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been defense-optional for the Nets much of the season under the guidance of first-year head coach Steve Nash, particularly on the road where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 47% from the field. Note that opponents are averaging 117 points per game with an average total of 239.2 points with the Nets playing as a road favorite this season. The 'over' has cashed at a 16-7 clip in that situation. On the flip side, the Bulls haven't seen the 'over' cash since April 26th against the Heat. They're healthy though, and I believe they have the personnel to give the Nets a run in what has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair on Tuesdaynight. Even Bulls sophomore Coby White has been contributing consistently at the offensive end of the floor lately, scoring 21 points or more in three of the last four games. With Zach LaVine back and seemingly getting stronger with each passing game (he scored 30 points in Sunday's win in Detroit), there's reason to believe the Bulls can put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Nets scored 125 points despite just 66 field goal attempts in Saturday's 125-119 win in Denver. That result snapped a four-game 'under' streak for Brooklyn, although it's worth noting that two of those four 'under' results would have gone 'over' the number we're dealing with here tonight. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 222 points back on April 4th but the Nets were without Kevin Durant for that contest and Kyrie Irving made good on just 12 field goal attempts for 24 points. Here, I'll note that the Nets are averaging 120.8 points per game with an average total of 239.5 points when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has still cashed in five of the last eight meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans continue to battle to earn their way into the play-in tournament but off a big come-from-behind win in Charlotte last night I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here. Without Zion in the lineup, the Pelicans have been forced to change their identity a little bit and come in off consecutive stellar defensive efforts in his absence. In fact, the 'under' is now 8-1 in the Pelicans last nine games overall. The fact that New Orleans scored 118 and 144 points in two previous wins over the Grizzlies this season should certainly peak Memphis' interest heading into this one. Like New Orleans, Memphis also ramped up its defensive play last time out, holding Toronto to under 39% shooting in a 10-point victory. That was the second time in their last six games the Grizzlies held an opponent to fewer than 100 points - a true accomplishment in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have found themselves in a situation looking for revenge for a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.4 points. While the Pelicans have more serious injury concerns with Zion and Brandon Ingram sidelined, the Grizzlies have issues of their own with underrated scorer Grayson Allen ruled out for Monday's game. It's certainly worth noting that Grizzlies super-soph Ja Morant has been slumping a bit lately as well, scoring 12 points or less in four of his last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-09-21 | Mavs v. Cavs OVER 216.5 | 124-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago in Dallas as the Mavs were in a clear letdown spot one night after outlasting Brooklyn in a nationally-televised matchup. Even with that situation, and the fact that Dallas shot worse than 50% and didn't play at a particularly fast pace against an awful Cavs defense, it still managed to score 110 points. Meanwhile, the Cavs still contributed enough offense to get the final score to 200 points despite turning in two sub-20-point quarters and shooting worse than 39% from the field. While I'm certainly not high on the Cavs offense with Darius Garland sidelined, I do think they can do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total on Sunday night. After holding three straight opponents to 46.4% shooting or worse, some regression should be in order for the Dallas defense in this spot. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Mavs coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 230.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 29-17 with the Cavs coming off at least three straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 223.0 points. The Cavs are in dire straights defensively right now, having allowed six of their last seven opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and and 12 of their last 13 opponents to shoot 48.3% or better. Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Cavs v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Cleveland catches Dallas in an advantageous spot on Friday night, rested and waiting while the Mavs were involved in a thrilling victory over the Nets in a marquee showdown just last night. Of course, the Cavs don't really have the personnel to take full advantage as they check in having lost eight straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. I do think we at least see the Cavs show some pride defensively here after allowing 122 or more points in four straight games and six consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. This isn't a spot where we're likely to see the Mavs go off offensively on the second of back-to-back nights. There's always the chance that they end up resting some starters (most notably Luka Doncic) although we'll operate under the assumption that they'll have the same lineup that we saw last night at the very least. Note that the Mavs have actually been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 110.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting entering last night's contest. After last night's game managed to say 'under' the total, the 'under' is now 20-14 with the Mavs playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-13 in all Cavs road games this season, where they average just 100.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Their offense isn't operating with much efficiency right now, largely due to the absence of standout sophomore Darius Garland, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. There seem to be a lot of instances where the Cavs are just standing around waiting for Collin Sexton to take over the game. He's a dynamic scorer to be sure, but he obviously needs help for the Cavs to be competitive. Note that Cleveland has shot 43.4% or worse from the field in four of its last six games, most recently shooting 40.2% in a 36-point rout at the hands of the Blazers, at home no less. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 211 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the first game of this two-game set in Utah on Monday as the Jazz cruised to a 110-99 victory. Now we're dealing with an even lower posted total and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 the last 33 times the Spurs have come off a road loss with those contests totaling an average of 231 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-1 with the Spurs coming off at least four straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 233.1 points. The Jazz check in averaging an impressive 120.6 points per game when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing a total of 226.5 points on average this season. Finally, note that San Antonio averages 117 points per game when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 226.6 points. Utah will be without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley again here, but I'm still anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair, noting that five of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with three of the last four eclipsing the number we're dealing with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 220 | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Jazz are coming off a low-scoring come-from-behind victory over the Raptors on Saturday as they continue to sputter without Donovan Mitchell and now Mike Conley as well. With that being said, I see this as a smash spot for Utah at home against a Spurs squad playing its second of back-to-back games after an overtime loss at home against the 76ers last night. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 after San Antonio posts three ATS wins in its last four games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 233.8 points. The 'over' is also 22-9 with the Spurs playing on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of 231.2 points. Meanwhile, Utah averages an impressive 121.9 points per contest when playing at home off a home win this season. Even when factoring in Mitchell and Conley's absences we can still project the Jazz to have a big night offensively against a Spurs squad that has allowed two of its last four opponents to shoot 50.6% or better from the field. It is worth noting that San Antonio has actually been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home, averaging 113.5 points per game on 46.7% shooting in the visitors role. The first meeting between these two teams this season produced 239 total points and the 'over' has cashed in five of the last eight meetings overall. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks UNDER 236.5 | 114-123 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Blazers are off to a perfect 4-0 start to their current road trip, scoring 133, 130, 128 and 129 points in the process. I like the Hawks chances of at least slowing them down here in Atlanta on Monday, noting that Atlanta has allowed 96, 103, 104 and 97 points over its last four home games and has allowed just three opponents to shoot 49% or better going all the way back to April 1st. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has cashed at a 13-5 clip with the Hawks listed as home favorite this season, with those games totaling an average of just 217.2 points. While the Blazers have been rolling offensively, it's important to give some credit to their defensive play as well. They've held four of their last five opponents to 46.5% or worse shooting from the field. I'm not entirely sure they'll be looking for a track meet here against a rested Hawks squad, noting that Portland will be playing its fifth game in the last seven nights, in five different cities. At the same time, Atlanta will want to take Portland out of its own element and perhaps turn things one into more of a physical affair. The 'under' is 17-13 in Hawks home games this season and I'll call for that trend to continue here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 225 | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 230.5 | 109-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards UNDER 226 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Suns v. Knicks UNDER 215 | 118-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This is a very low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Suns don't get enough credit for their defense. They check in allowing just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting this season but will need to refocus after a real flat performance in Brooklyn yesterday, allowing 128 points in a lopsided defeat. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-9 with the Suns coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, over the last two seasons. Perhaps yesterday's lull was to be expected as they simply couldn't ratchet up the intensity following a two-day layoff which came on the heels of three games in four nights on the road against the Bucks, 76ers and Celtics. I do expect a solid bounce-back performance here, noting that Phoenix has allowed just 106.6 points per game following an ATS loss this season. Despite its defensive exploits, New York has seen the 'over' cash in six of its last seven games overall. Keep in mind, it has held five of seven opponents to fewer than 110 points over that stretch, which is an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The Knicks check in allowing 105.6 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. The 'under' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Knicks have come off an outright win as an underdog, as is the case here as they were inexplicably +1 against the Raptors on Saturday. That situation has produced just 109.4 total points on average over the last two seasons. With the Suns eager to get on a plane to head home at the end of a tough five-game road trip and the Knicks rested and ready playing their fifth game of a six-game homestand following a day off on Sunday, I'm not anticipating any sort of track meet on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 217 | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We cashed our free play on the 'under' in the Hawks upset win over the Bucks last night (we also won our premium play on Atlanta) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Atlanta heads to Detroit to face the Pistons on Monday. While losing Trae Young to a knee injury certainly struck a serious blow to the Hawks offensive prospects, the cupboard is by no means bare, as we saw in last night's come-from-behind victory over the Bucks. With the likes of Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams, the Hawks are still a formidable offensive squad and they should be able to have their way with the Pistons, who are in for some regression after holding their last two opponents to 46.2% and 41.7% shooting. Note that Detroit has still allowed three of its last five opponents to shoot 48.8% or better from the field. It has had no answers for the Hawks in a pair of meetings this season, giving up 128 and 123 points. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While I do have a lot of respect for the Hawks defense, as I noted in my analysis of yesterday's plays on Atlanta and the 'under', this is obviously a letdown spot playing their second of back-to-backs in a very winnable matchup with the Pistons. I'm not sure we'll see the Hawks bring the same level of defensive intensity we saw against the Bucks last night. Note that Detroit shot just 40.6% from the field but still managed to score 109 points in an up-tempo affair in Indiana two nights ago. I'm expecting another fairly fast-paced contest here, noting that the Pistons have had little success slowing the pace of their opponents, yielding at least 92 field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. The 'over' has gone 16-6 with the Pistons coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in having allowed 119.2 points per game following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 231.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Portland at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams on Friday night as the Grizzlies outlasted the Blazers by a 130-128 score - easily eclipsing the total. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around and I believe it will prove too high in Sunday's rematch. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 the last 21 times the Grizzlies have come off a game that totaled 245 points or more, with that situation producing just 219.4 total points on average. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 28-10 clip after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with an average total of just 220 points in that spot. While the Grizzlies are certainly rolling along offensively, I'm not sure they want to tempt fate with another track meet here in Portland. A slower pace may serve them well here, noting that Portland is not an elite shooting team by any means, having shot 49.0% or worse from the field in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies shot a blistering 53.1% on Friday night, but will be playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, in five different cities, on Sunday afternoon. The Blazers have responded favorably following poor defensive efforts recently. After allowing an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, they've held their next opponent to 44.2%, 35.3%, 45.3% and 44.3% shooting going back to late March. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 after the Blazers score 120 points or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.5 points. While the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series, the 'under' is actually 2-1 in the last three matchups here in Portland. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | 94-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 3:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Saturday's rematch in Milwaukee. There are obviously injury concerns for the 76ers after Joel Embiid was forced to leave Thursday's game and Ben Simmons missed it entirely due to an illness he's been battling over the last week. That game started as a track meet but did slow down in the second half with just 104 points scored. We saw some shooting anomalies in that one as Shake Milton was 8-of-14 for 20 points for the 76ers while Bobby Portis came off the bench to shoot 9-of-11 for 23 points for the Bucks. Philadelphia allowed Milwaukee to shoot north of 55% from the field in that game but I expect it to punch back here on Saturday, noting that it has seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 the last three times it has allowed opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Note that the 76ers have held opponents to 45.8% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11 clip. The 'over' has cashed in the Bucks last three games, their longest such streak since mid-March. I look for a reversal of that trend here noting that the 76ers have allowed just 107.7 points per game after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 221.8 points. Also note that Philadelphia averages just 107.0 points per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 219.5 points. Look for today's total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | 76ers v. Bucks OVER 225 | Top | 117-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Clippers UNDER 227.5 | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies got off to a blazing start against the Nuggets two nights ago but when Denver decided to play a little defense, Memphis wilted in the fourth quarter, scoring just 21 points and allowing the Nuggets to force overtime in an eventual loss for the Grizz. Here's where Memphis' schedule gets really tough as it plays its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities and coming off a game played at altitude in Denver. I don't think we'll see all of those shots dropping for the Grizz the way they did two nights ago. Note that the 'under' has gone 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games after allowing 120 points or more in their last game with those contests totaling an average of 219.9 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers are back home after a one-point victory over the Dame-less Blazers last night in Portland. Even with Kawhi Leonard sidelined, they're still an elite defensive team and they're absolutely locked in at that end of the floor right now, having held five straight opponents to 45.8% or worse shooting. Of course, the Clips could be catching the Grizzlies at the right time with both Jonas Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks questionable to play on Wednesday night. Even if they do play, I still expect this one to stay 'under' the total, just as five of the last nine meetings in this series have, including the most recent one - a 119-99 Clippers victory in Memphis back on February 26th. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets had their six-game 'over' streak snapped in their 113-91 loss in Miami two nights ago, and I look for an 'under' streak to present itself as they return home to host the Jazz on Wednesday night. Utah entered its last game off an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Lakers on Saturday but that shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was essentially a throw-away game with a number of key cogs sitting out due to rest. The Jazz answered back with a stellar defensive performance in the back half of that two-game set against the Lakers, allowing just 97 points on 43.0% shooting in Monday's victory. Save for a few outliers, the Jazz have been incredibly locked in defensively and check in having held seven of their last 10 opponents to 45.1% or worse shooting - a real accomplishment in today's NBA. Meanwhile, the Rockets have quietly held three straight opponents under 49% shooting - an accomplishment in their own right given how this season has gone. Offensively, however, the Rockets are in tough right now, having shot 47.0% or worse from the field in five of their last seven games. They're not getting secondary scoring right now, which is no surprise with guys like Danuel House and Sterling Brown sidelined. John Wall and Christian Wood can only do so much. Note that the Jazz and Rockets both find themselves in the league's bottom-four in terms of floor percentage over their last three games. The Rockets rank last in the league in that category here at home this season. Utah surprisingly checks in 28th in the league in extra scoring chances per game while Houston isn't much better, sitting in 21st. It's also worth noting that Houston and Utah rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in block percentage. I do think the Rockets will be able to run their offense in this game, with Utah ranking 29th in the league in steals per game, but how many good looks they'll be afforded is another matter entirely. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 with the Rockets giving up 110 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 225.1 points. The Rockets average just 104.6 points per game when at home revenging a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 218.6 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams totaled just 213 points back on March 12th and each of the last four meetings in Houston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met on March 3rd, they combined to score 227 points in a three-point Hawks win in Orlando. The Magic are a completely different team now, however. Note that Orlando got a combined 77 points from the trio of Nik Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross on that night. Vucevic is of course now playing in Chicago while Carter-Williams and Ross will both miss tonight's game due to injuries. Orlando does figure to show a bit of pride and play defense in this one after allowing the Raptors and Rockets to shoot 50% or better from the field in its last two games. The Magic have actually been slightly better defensively on the road this season compared to at home, allowing 111.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks last game - a double-digit victory over the Pacers on Sunday. This game sets up much differently against a much slower-paced and undermanned Magic squad. The Hawks are fairly locked in defensively right now, holding five straight opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They've been an underrated defensive team all season, in fact, particularly here at home, where they've held opponents to 45.5% shooting. With a much tougher game looming against the Knicks in New York tomorrow night, this could certainly be a game where we see Atlanta manage minutes, especially with a a number of key cogs still missing due to injury, including Danilo Gallinari, one of its most underrated offensive threats. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 234.5 | Top | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks didn't give Trae Young any good looks in Thursday's 120-109 Hawks loss here at home and as a result he shot 3-of-17 from the field, ultimately keeping us from cashing our 'over' ticket by a bucket. Here, I look for Young to fare much better as we should be in for a track meet between the Pacers and Hawks. Indiana hoisted up 105 field goal attempts in an eight-point loss in Utah on Friday, shooting a miserable 39% from the field. I'm willing to chalk that poor shooting up to a tough scheduling spot with a rare early weekday game in altitude, no less. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Pacers bounce back, noting that they average 115.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting on the road this season. The 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Hawks have played at home off a double-digit home loss, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 238.3 points. The Hawks have also posted a 12-3 o/u record when revenging a double-digit home loss against an opponent (Indiana defeated Atlanta 121-113 here in February) with that spot averaging a total of 237.4 points. With that Hawks shooting 47.6% or worse in three straight games, they'll be eager to get back on track offensively and should be afforded that opportunity against a Pacers squad playing their third straight game on the road and fourth game in the last six days, in four different cities. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 228 | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Boston at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the Warriors win over the Cavs on Thursday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Boston on Saturday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 with the Warriors playing their third road game in five days this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 216.3 points. The 'under' has also gone 21-9 with the Warriors playing as a road underdog of six points or less, with those games reaching an average total of just 217.7 points. Note that while the Warriors are known for their offense, they can play some defensive as well. Golden State has held five straight opponents to 48.3% or worse shooting, with the 'under' going 3-2 over that stretch. For Boston's part, it has given up just 106.1 points per game after winning four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an identical average total of just 217.7 points. The Warriors offense is red hot right now with Steph Curry going off on a nightly basis but the Celtics will pose a stiff defensive test. Boston is locked in defensively right now, having held nine straight opponents to 49.4% or worse shooting, including limiting five opponents to 44.9% or worse over that stretch. The C's check in allowing 108.9 points per game on 45.8% shooting at TD Garden this season with the 'under' going 16-11 along the way. Finally, it's worth pointing out that each of the last two meetings between these teams in Boston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Knicks v. Mavs UNDER 211 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met in Manhattan earlier this month they combined to score just 185 points in a double-digit Mavericks victory. I'm not anticipating a whole lot more offense in this one but we've only seen a minor adjustment to the total with the previous matchup seeing a closing total of 212.5. The Knicks actually check in off consecutive 'over' results. Here, we find the 'under' has gone 10-1 when they come off consecutive games in which they scored 110 points or more over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 210.1 total points. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-6 with the Knicks coming off an outright underdog victory (New York won as a 2.5-point underdog in New Orleans last time out) over the last two seasons with that situation producing just 207.3 total points on average. Note that the Knicks are allowing just 102.3 points per game when playing with same-season revenge this season, as is the case here as noted above. For their part, the Mavs have posted a 10-15 o/u record at home this season where they've inexplicably scored fewer points per game compared to on the road. While Luka Doncic's last-second heroics were the story, the Mavs got back in Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies thanks to some tough defensive play, limiting Memphis to 47.2% shooting. Only two of Dallas' last 16 opponents have shot better than 50% from the field and the Knicks don't figure to approach that number as they average just 103.7 points per game on 44.6% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 18-11 clip. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers OVER 221 | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams produced 234 points back on March 27th in Los Angeles and I believe the total will prove too low again on Friday night. The 76ers had their five-game 'under' streak snapped in Wednesday's 123-117 win over the undermanned Nets. After a stretch of six consecutive games holding the opposition to 49.4% or worse shooting, the Sixers have now allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Note that they've allowed 110.7 points per game at home this season, with those contests totaling an average of 228.5 points. The Clippers are coming off an ugly 100-98 win in Detroit two nights ago - a clear sandwich spot between a stop in Indiana to open the three-game trip and this contest tonight. Prior to that game, the Clips had seen the 'over' cash in three straight contests. While the Clips may not have the services of Kawhi Leonard again tonight, that has certainly been factored into this total. Note that Los Angeles averages 118.5 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 226.3 points. After shooting an abysmal 39.8% against a bad Pistons squad two nights ago, we can anticipate a strong bounce-back performance from the Clips offense here, noting that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in the Warriors rout of the undermanned Thunder last night but I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play here, as I don't expect another peak offensive effort from Golden State in this, the second installment of a five-game road trip. Note that while it has been overshadowed by its recent offensive outbursts, the Warriors are playing some excellent defensive basketball right now, having held their last four opponents to 110 points or less and 48.3% or worse shooting (that qualifies as solid defensive basketball in today's NBA). The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Warriors playing the second of back-to-back nights this season with that situation producing just 211.1 total points on average. The 'under' is also 9-1 after the Warriors win three of their last four games ATS this season with that situation producing 215 total points on average. The Cavs have scored less than 110 points in back-to-back games and have plenty of what I would call 'possession killers' in their lineup right now. They've shot 48.7% or worse from the field in three straight games and are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league this season. With this being the Warriors third game in the last four nights (in three different cities), I'm not anticipating a track meet. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 230 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This play obviously goes hand-in-hand with my play on the Hawks plus the points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Milwaukee has settled into a true up-tempo style in the absence of Giannis and that should suit the Hawks just fine on Thursday night as they won't shy away from a track meet. Note that the 'over' has gone 13-4 the last 17 times the Bucks have played on the road following consecutive ATS victories over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 236.6 points. Meanwhile, the Hawks have seen the 'over' cash at a 43-26 clip in their last 69 games as a home underdog with those contests totaling an average of 233.7 points. While Atlanta has major injury concerns, most notably involving superstar Trae Young, I would expect him to be back in the lineup on Friday with two full days off on deck before the Hawks play again on Sunday against Indiana. Even if he doesn't play, the pace alone should afford Atlanta a good opportunity to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard, noting that it averages 116.2 points per game when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss over the last two seasons (Milwaukee took the first meeting between these two teams by a 129-115 score back on January 24th). Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last four matchups between these two teams in Atlanta. Take the over (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | 147-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've won with the 'under' in each of the Thunder's last two games having anticipated they would play with some pride defensively following a truly awful stretch of basketball at that end of the floor. While that didn't exactly hold true in Saturday's blowout loss against the 76ers, we did see Oklahoma City holds its own in a tough matchup in Utah last night, holding the Jazz to 41.9% shooting in a 10-point loss. The Thunder are having a tough time offensively right now, having been held under 45% shooting in six of their last seven games overall. Lugenz Dort found a cheat code and went off for 42 points in last night's game in Utah but isn't likely to repeat that performance here. Note that the Thunder average just 106.3 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season. The Warriors roll into OKC off back-to-back wins. Note that they average just 104.1 points per game after winning two or more games in a row ATS this season with that situation producing just 217.8 total points on average. The 'under' checks in a perfect 9-0 with the Warriors having posted three ATS wins in their last four games this season with that spot producing an average total of only 210.4 points. Of course, the Warriors have been a lower-scoring team in general on the road this season, posting a 9-18 o/u mark. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 217 | 86-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup pits two of the league's better defensive teams in my opinion and I believe we might be in for a bit of an old school, playoff-like game on Tuesday night. Keep in mind, the first time these two met this season was back on March 23rd, when the Suns cruised to a 110-100 win in Miami, staying 'under' the posted total. We're actually dealing with a higher total this time around, undoubtedly as a result of the Suns high-scoring ways of late. Phoenix has put up north of 120 points in five of its last seven games overall. Keep in mind, sprinkled in that stretch were two games where Phoenix was held to 102 and 103 points in regulation time against the Jazz and Clippers, respectively (we played the 'under' in both of those games and only failed to go 2-0 due to overtime against Utah). Phoenix has played a lot of basketball here in April with this being its seventh game in 13 nights. I'm not convinced we'll see another peak offensive performance like we saw last night against the lowly Rockets. Miami has allowed more than 110 points just once in its last eight games and checks in allowing just 105 points per game on 44.4% shooting on the road this season. While both meetings between these two teams in Phoenix have gone 'over' the total over the last three seasons, they haven't matched up here in quite some time. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Heat play on the road off consecutive wins this season with those contests totaling just 193.7 points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 223 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Thunder's most recent game - a 117-93 home loss to the 76ers on Saturday. That 'under' result snapped a somewhat improbable three-game 'over' streak for Oklahoma City. I say improbable as the Thunder have been absolutely decimated by injuries and simply don't have the personnel in place to compete in track meets right now. I feel that this game sets up similarly to Utah's relatively low-scoring blowout win over the Cavaliers here in Salt Lake City back on March 29th. We won with the 'under' on that night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Utah should be in a foul mood tonight after letting one slip away against the Wizards last night. After scoring 42 first quarter points the Jazz might have got caught already checking the game off in the win column as the Wizards rallied and ultimately snapped Utah's long home winning streak. Of course, the Jazz are more than capable of bouncing right back tonight, and I expect it to come on the strength of a strong defensive effort after allowing the Wiz to shoot better than 52% from the field last night. Note that Utah allows just 104 points per game on 43.4% shooting at home this season. The Thunder, meanwhile, have been ripped for 129 points or more in four of their last six games overall but as I noted on Saturday, we should see them at least play with some pride moving forward. They shot 50% from the field in Saturday's loss - the first time they reached that mark since way back on March 14th. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Note that the 'under' has gone 42-22 in Oklahoma City's last 64 games as a road underdog with those contests totaling an average of just 216.8 points. The Thunder have actually been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, allowing 110.9 points per game on 46.3% shooting. Note that the Jazz have allowed just 103.8 points per game this season when playing their third consecutive game at home. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Utah. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Bulls v. Grizzlies UNDER 230.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Grizzlies track meet loss against the Pacers last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Memphis was baited into a frenetic pace against Indiana last night and simply couldn't keep up in an eventual 132-125 loss. I expect a different type of game to unfold on Monday as both the Bulls and Grizzlies check in off losses, and in back-to-back spots. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 when the Grizzlies play at home after losing two of their last three games this season with those contests totaling just 213.1 points on average. We've also seen the 'under' go 26-10 the last 36 times Memphis has given up 120 points or more in a game, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 220.8 points. For the Bulls, this will be their 10th game in the last 17 nights, in 10 different cities! They still managed to shoot better than 51% from the field in last night's loss in Minnesota but I expect them to have a tough time matching that mark tonight. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 46.6% shooting at home this season and 46.9% or worse shooting in six of their last eight games overall. Off last night's poor defensive effort against the Pacers, I expect them to make a bit of a statement here. For the Bulls, they'll simply be looking to keep within arm's reach as they attempt to steal one at the end of a long road trip. Note that each of the last two meetings in this series in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Pacers v. Grizzlies UNDER 233 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. Indiana took the first meeting between these two teams in a wild 134-116 affair back on February 2nd. I'm expecting this rematch to be much lower-scoring than that, however, noting that the Grizzlies have allowed just 108 points per game when at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 217.5 points. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Grizzlies play at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season with those games totaling an average of just 210.3 points. The 'under' is also 15-3 when the Grizzlies come off a very high-scoring game totaling 245 points or more, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those contests producing an average of just 218.8 points. For their part, the Pacers have posted a 1-8 o/u record after attempting 90 shots or more in consecutive games this season and they've played to an average total of 225.4 points after consecutive games where 215 points or more were scored this season. It's interesting to note that the Grizzlies have actually been a lower-scoring team at home than on the road this season, recording a 9-17 o/u mark here in Memphis with those games totaling an average of 220.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | 76ers v. Thunder UNDER 218.5 | 117-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has somewhat inexplicably cashed in each of the Thunder's last three games despite the fact that they've scored just 108, 102 and 102 points with a number of key cogs out of the lineup due to injuries. They are expected to get some help with the expected return of Al Horford tonight although I think that supports them more at the defensive end of the floor than offensively. The 76ers are coming off an ugly 101-94 loss in New Orleans last night. They've now shot 46.6% or worse in five of their last six games overall with the 'under' going 5-1 over that stretch. They could be without Joel Embiid tonight, which obviously doesn't help matters. Note that the 'under' has gone 29-16 after the Thunder are involved in a game totaling 225 points or more over the last two seasons. The 'under' is also 18-8 after Oklahoma City is involved in three straight games totaling 215 points or more over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks UNDER 214.5 | 129-133 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and New York at 7:40 pm et on Friday. This is a fairly low posted total by today's NBA standards but I feel it's warranted. The Grizzlies are coming off consecutive 'over' results, scoring a whopping 124 and 131 points in the process. They'll face a tough test here though, noting that the Knicks have allowed just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. The 'under' has gone 14-10 in Knicks home games this season. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 when New York comes off a road loss by three points or less over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 194.4 points. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 18-8 clip after the Knicks have lost four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 207.6 points. This is the tail-end of a four-game road trip for the Grizzlies and it will be their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities no less. After shooting 54.8% and 53.9% in their last two games I would certainly anticipate some regression from the Memphis offense here. On the flip side, the Grizz have been locked in defensively, holding five of their last six opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 223 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Suns win over the Jazz last night, which was truly a bad beat as only 204 points were scored in regulation time. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Phoenix plays in a back-to-back spot against the Clippers in Los Angeles. After shooting better than 51% from the field in four straight games, the Suns shot just 44.6% last night and I would expect some continued regression against a good Clippers defense that allows just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting at home this season. The Clips, like last night's opponent the Jazz, are locked in defensively right now having limited three of their last four opponents to 41.3% or worse shooting. For its part, Phoenix has allowed just one of its last 13 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. The Suns have been every bit as good defensively on the road as at home, giving up 107.7 ppg on 45.9% shooting. Note that the 'under' is 29-15 when the Suns play on the road following an 'over' result over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The lone previous matchup between these two teams this season took place back on New Year's Eve, with the Suns posting a relatively low-scoring 106-95 win in Utah. We're dealing with a higher posted total this time around (the closing total on December 31st was 219) but I'm not sure it's warranted. Yes, Phoenix is on fire (no pun intended) offensively right now, having scored 140 and 133 points in its last two games. Those offensive outbursts weren't overly surprising, however, as they came at the expense of the injury-riddled Thunder and lowly Rockets. Concerning was the fact that they allowed Houston and its generally-inept offense to shoot better than 54% from the field last time out. Phoenix is obviously a better defensive team than that and should rise to the occasion in this showdown with the first-place Jazz, noting that the Suns allow just 107.7 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season and had held 11 straight opponents to below 50% shooting prior to that game against the Rockets. I mentioned the Suns offense - they've shot better than 51% from the field in four straight games heading into tonight's contest - their longest streak of that sort this season. They'll be hard-pressed to keep it going here against a Jazz defense that has been locked in lately, holding 10 consecutive opponents to 48.3% or worse shooting. Utah allows 111.2 ppg on 46.2% shooting on the road this season. Note that the Suns have allowed just 104.6 ppg following an ATS loss this season, with those games totaling an average of 219.8 points. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 119-143 o/u record following an ATS loss under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those contests totaling an average of 204.7 points (that trend does back a little further than I would like but is still worth noting). Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last three meetings between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 160 | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Gonzaga at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's thrilling overtime victory over UCLA on Saturday while missing by a bucket with the 'under' in Baylor rout of Houston. Here, I love the way the 'under' sets up with what I feel is an inflated total for the final. Credit UCLA for hanging around in a game where most felt it would be overmatched on Saturday. It wasn't that Gonzaga played that poorly defensively, the Bruins quite simply knocked down their shots, hitting 58% from the field, in fact. There's no reason to get down on the Zags defense heading into Monday's game, however, noting that while known for its prolific offense, this is a Bulldogs squad that entered the tournament ranked 13th nationally in opponents floor percentage and 31st in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Unlike UCLA, Baylor does possess the length and athleticism to contend with the Zags offense in my opinion. The Bears have an active defense that entered the tourney ranked seventh in the country in steals per possession and 71st in block percentage. That's not to mention a very respectable 44th in opponents floor percentage. If anything, we've seen Baylor get stronger defensively as this tournament as gone on. The Bears not surprisingly got sped up a bit against Arkansas in the Elite Eight but outside of that we've seen them prefer to play a halfcourt game. This one is being priced as a potential track meet and while both teams have the pro-level talent to bring that to fruition, I believe there's a better chance we see the defenses step up and keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-21 | Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 213 | Top | 132-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams will be missing key cogs on Monday night as a matchup that would have been pretty ugly to begin with gets even uglier. Mason Plumlee has been ruled out for the Pistons due to scheduled rest. Meanwhile, the Thunder are missing a handful of key contributors, most notably Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City is coming off consecutive drummings at the hands of the Suns and Blazers on Friday and Saturday, allowing a whopping 140 and 133 points in those two setbacks, respectively. I do expect the Thunder to at least show some pride and play a little defense on Monday and this is a favorable matchup to do so with the Pistons having been held to 101 points or less in three of their last five games. In fact, going back to March 13th, Detroit has been held under 100 points on five different occasions, which is pretty staggering by today's high-scoring NBA standards. The Pistons are coming off a blowout loss at home against the Knicks on Sunday in a game that was never competitive. It is worth noting that they've allowed just 104.1 points per game when coming off a double-digit home loss this season. Also note that the 'under' is 8-1 when the Thunder come off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season, with those contests reaching an average total of just 206.5 points. The last meeting between these two teams in Oklahoma City produced just 209 points last February. The argument can certainly be made that both offenses are far worse off now than they were then. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 215 | Top | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA on ABC TV Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Lakers last five games and eight of their last nine overall. We've also seen the 'under' cash in the Clippers last two contests with a number of bodies in and out of the lineup. I believe we're set up for a higher-scoring affair on Sunday, however. Coming off rare consecutive losses, I certainly expect to see the Clippers rebound here after a couple of days off to reset. Note that they average 120.7 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 229.3 points. The Lakers have seen the 'under' cash at a 32-16 clip after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, however, those contests have totaled an average of 221.8 points, north of the reasonably low total we're working with today. Los Angeles has some positive momentum here after scoring 115 points in a rout of Sacramento two nights ago. Bettors will likely be hesitant to back the 'over' here due to the notable absences on both teams, particularly the Lakers. That's just fine as it keeps the total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga OVER 145.5 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Gonzaga at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams delivered 'under' results in the Elite Eight, albeit in very different ways with UCLA involved in an extremely low-scoring victory over defensive-minded Michigan and Gonzaga putting up 85 points in a rout of USC. Here, I don't believe UCLA will be able to do anything to throw the Bulldogs off their game offensively, noting that the Bruins entered the tournament ranked a miserable 299th in the nation in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. They also checked in ranked 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage and 156th in opponents floor percentage. I don't need to tell you that's just not going to cut it against a Gonzaga squad that ranks tops in the nation in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage. The Bruins have been hot and cold offensively in this tournament but might have a sliver of hope here with the Zags holding USC to 38.7% shooting last time out. That may seem contradictory, but it's worth noting that the Bulldogs haven't held consecutive opponents under 40% shooting since January 16th and 23rd against St. Mary's-CA and Pacific. The Bruins should at least get some good looks at the basket in this one, noting that Gonzaga ranks well north of 200th in terms of block percentage, and ranks worse than UCLA's last opponent, Michigan, in terms of opponents floor percentage, opponents effective field goal percentage and opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. This will by no means be a walk in the park for the Bruins offensively, but I think they can do enough to help get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor UNDER 135 | Top | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Baylor at 5:15 pm et on Saturday. This has the makings of a low-scoring battle between the Cougars and Bears on Saturday evening. Houston entered the tournament ranked number one in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage and it hasn't disappointed, holding its four opponents to 56, 60, 46 and 61 points. While this will be Houston's toughest test in the tournament to date, I believe it will be up for the challenge. Baylor put up 81 points in its Elite Eight win over Arkansas but that was the first time it broke the 80-point mark since back on March 7th against Texas Tech. I suspect the Bears might have trouble running their offense against a Houston defense that entered the tournament ranked ninth in the nation in block percentage and 16th in steals per possession. I also think Houston's slow pace, ranking around 300th in the country in possessions per game could cause the Bears some problems here. Where I don't expect Baylor to have any trouble is slowing a Houston offense that has topped out at 67 points since opening the tournament with a rout of an overmatched Cleveland State squad. Keep in mind, the Cougars Elite Eight victory over Oregon State got to just 128 points but featured 12 points in the game's final minute as the Beavers did everything they could to extend proceedings. I'm not convinced this game will go right down to the wire, and that should help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Bulls v. Jazz UNDER 224.5 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We've won with the 'under' in each of Utah's last two games but also cashed a ticket with the 'over' in its win over the Grizzlies last Friday night. Of course, it's been an emotional week for the Jazz after their plane was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting the flock of birds shortly after taking off on its way to Memphis. As a result, Donovan Mitchell ended up staying back in Utah while the Jazz delivered a 111-107 win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday. The 'under' has now cashed in five of Utah's last seven games overall. The Bulls have seen the 'under' cash in eight of their last 11 games and they enter this contest on the heels of five consecutive losses, including three in a row to open this road trip. While Zach LaVine remains questionable to play on Friday I would operate under the assumption he won't be able to go in this one. After allowing their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better I expect Chicago to focus on playing better defense here, noting that it has allowed 110.8 points per game when playing on the road after a game where 225 points or more were scored, well below its season average for points allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Jazz are giving up just 102.9 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games this season and enter this game fairly locked-in defensively, having held six straight opponents to 46.7% or worse shooting from the field. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in three of four meetings in this series over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-01-21 | Magic v. Pelicans OVER 220 | Top | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. There's some question as to whether Zion Williamson will be able to play in this one after spraining his thumb on Monday night against Boston. While I do think there's a good chance he'll be on the floor with the Pelicans needing every win they can get in the playoff push, even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair. We of course won with the Magic in Tuesday's upset win over the Clippers. We saw Orlando come into its own a little bit offensively in that one, scoring 66 second half points while getting a boost from the return of sharp-shooter Terrence Ross. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are coming off an upset win of their own, securing a 115-109 victory in Boston on Monday. That marked their third straight 'under' result. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 12-0 when the Pelicans come off an outright underdog win over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 243.5 points. The 'over' has also gone 10-1 when the Pelicans play at home off an ATS victory this season with those games reaching an average total of 240.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 27-12 when the Magic play with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 230 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: This total has dropped since it was made official that Donovan Mitchell will miss the game for the Jazz. I still like the play at the adjusted total. We've had a good read on Jazz totals lately, cashing with the 'over' in their win over the Grizzlies last Friday before hitting the 'under' in Monday's rout of the Cavs. Here, we'll stick with the 'under' as they head out on the road to face the Grizzlies for the third time in less than a week. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm a believe in familiarity lending itself to relatively low-scoring games, regardless the sport. While the two meetings between these two teams in Utah on Friday and Saturday both found their way 'over' the total, we're dealing with a higher number here (at the time of writing) and it's worth mentioning that three of their last four meetings in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total with the most recent meeting here totaling just 197 points. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 107 points per game after playing their last two games away from home over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 215.1 points. It's interesting to note that the Grizzlies have actually been a higher-scoring team away from home compared to here in Memphis this season, where they average just 109.1 points per game. Not surprisingly, they've posted a 9-15 o/u record at home. The Jazz are absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held four of their last five opponents to 40.6% or worse shooting. The Grizzlies did sting them for 114 and 110 points in their two matchups last weekend but I would look for that situation to correct itself here, noting that the Jazz have allowed just 106.3 points per game when coming off a double-digit win this season. Look for the Jazz to conserve a little energy if they can in this one with a five-game in seven-night stretch beginning on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 136 | Top | 51-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Michigan at 9:55 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Michigan's Sweet 16 victory over Florida State on Sunday in a game that only came close to approaching the total thanks to its lopsided nature. Here, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair and will go back to the well with the 'under' once again. UCLA certainly didn't enter this tournament looking like an elite defensive team but we have seen the Bruins round into form at that end of the floor over the last couple of games, holding Abilene Christian and Alabama to a combined 37.3% shooting. Michigan has shot the lights out in this tournament so far but I would anticipate some regression in that department on Tuesday. It's worth noting that the Wolverines entered this tournament ranked a less than impressive 175th in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. I like the fact that both of these teams should be able to run their offenses on Tuesday night, with neither defense overly disruptive. UCLA entered the tourney ranked 299th in the nation in steals per possession while Michigan checked in an ugly 331st in that department. Both teams prefer to work deep into the shot clock on offense, with UCLA entering the tournament ranked 288th nationally in possessions per game and Michigan checking in 259th. The Bruins were involved in a more up-tempo game against Alabama on Sunday, although that one still only managed to get to 130 points in regulation time. Michigan has scored 82, 86 and 76 points through three games in this tournament. Keep in mind, the Wolverines had scored fewer than 70 points in four of their last five games heading in. Look for a return to 'normal' here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Baylor at 9:55 pm et on Monday. The potential is obviously there for this to turn into a track meet on Monday night but that's ultimately been factored into the total. I like what both teams bring to the table defensively and with a spot in the Final Four hanging in the balance, look for points to come at a premium in this one (relatively speaking, of course). Note that Baylor has allowed just north of 57 points per game when playing for just the second time in eight days over the last two seasons. Saturday's win over Villanova wasn't overly taxing on the Bears as far as I'm concerned and I expect them to be extremely active at the defensive end of the floor in this one, noting that they entered the tournament ranked an impressive seventh in the nation in steals per possession and top-75 in block percentage. For Arkansas' part, it has been a top-25 team in terms of opponents floor percentage this season and top-65 in opponents effective field goal percentage. After a loosely-played affair that featured 138 combined field goal attempts against Oral Roberts, look for this game to take on a more defensive tone. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Cavs v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 75-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This is obviously a game that the Jazz can all but circle as a win as they look for their 20th victory at home on Monday night. While I'm not interested in laying the boatload of points in a spot where Utah should be able to name its score, I will call for a lower-scoring game than betting marketplace is accounting for. Note that the Cavs are averaging just north of 98 points per game on the road this season and don't figure to bust out against one of the league's best defensive teams statistically speaking. Jarrett Allen was becoming a big part of what the Cavs do offensively, scoring in double-figures in five straight games before going down with a concussion against the Lakers on Friday. He won't play on Monday. While Utah is coming off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against Memphis (we won with the 'over' in Friday's game), the Jazz are actually locked in defensively right now, having held four straight opponents to 45.4% or lower shooting, limiting three of those opponents to 40.6% or worse. Again, the Cavs don't figure to be the team to throw the Jazz off course. Utah did shoot 50% from the field in Saturday's win over the Grizzlies, but that only served to snap a skid of 10 straight games shooting worse than 49%. It's certainly something worth noting should the pace slow a bit in this one once the Jazz are able to build a sizeable lead. The 'under' has gone 57-39 when the Jazz host non-conference opponents under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those games totaling just 202.1 points on average. Likewise, the 'under' is 87-64 when the Jazz play at home off a win under Snyder, with those contests reaching an average of 202.9 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and USC at 9:45 pm et on Sunday. When these teams met during the Pac-12 regular season they combined to score only 130 points and I anticipate more of the same here with a lot more to play for in the Sweet 16. While the Ducks put up a whopping 95 points in an extremely high-scoring affair against Iowa last time out, note that Oregon checks in 262nd in the nation in possessions per game and won't have much interest in a track meet here. Likewise, USC ranks north of 200th in the country in possessions per game and should be comfortable playing this one in the 50's or 60's. I like the disruptive nature of both defenses, with USC in particular being stingy around the basket, ranking an impressive 11th in the country in block percentage. The Trojans will let Oregon run its offense here, likely deep into the shot clock on most possessions, noting that USC ranks 316th in steals per possession. Conversely, while Oregon sits just inside the top-90 in block percentage, it ranks 45th in steals per possession. But again, what it does with those extra possessions should support our cause with the 'under' as the Ducks don't generally look to push the pace. Note that USC allows just 64.5 points per game playing away from home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons while Oregon gives up 64.2 ppg after an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5 | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Michigan at 5 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Florida State's blowout win over Colorado in the Round of 32 and I won't hesitate to go back the well with the same play here as the Seminoles challenge top-seeded Michigan on Sunday afternoon. This game will pit two elite defensive teams with Michigan ranking sixth in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Florida State is a top-20 team in opponents effective field goal percentage and a very respectable 48th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. Both teams also rank inside the top-60 in opponents floor percentage. We'll see a contrast in styles here as Michigan will look to use most of the shot clock as it checks in 245th in the country in possessions per game while Florida State will undoubtedly try to speed things up, ranking 132nd in that category. I do believe both teams will be able to run their offenses without a great deal of disruption. Note in particular that Michigan ranks a woeful 337th in the nation in steals per possession this season. That's beneficial to Florida State given it doesn't always take great care of the basketball, ranking 251st in the nation in turnovers per possession. While I have a lot of respect for both of these offenses, I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Phoenix is coming off a low-scoring victory over the Raptors in Tampa on Friday, prevailing by a 104-100 score. The 'under' is now 4-1 in the Suns last five games overall. Meanwhile, the Hornets posted an 'over' result in Friday's win over the Heat. Still, the 'under' has gone 4-1 in their last five contests. Here, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts as far as the recent 'under' trend goes for both teams. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 when the Suns have won four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 228.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 8-1 when the Hornets come off three ATS wins in their last four games this season, with those games totaling 228.4 points on average. The first meeting between these two teams took place back on February 24th in Phoenix and totaled a whopping 245 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5 | 64-77 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Memphis at 12 noon et on Sunday. Both of these teams overwhelmed their opponents in yesterday's NIT matchups with Memphis scoring 90 points and Mississippi State putting up 84 points in blowout victories. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. While the Bulldogs shot 56% from the field including 50% from beyond the arc yesterday, they can go cold just as quickly as they get hot, noting they've been held to fewer than 60 points on eight different occasions this season. Here, they'll be up against an elite Memphis defense that has only allowed one opponent to break 70 points since the beginning of March - that being Elite Eight-bound Houston. The Tigers also shot a blistering 56% from the field yesterday including 52% from beyond the arc but will have to deal with a Mississippi State defense that ranks 34th in the nation in block percentage. Also note that the Bulldogs do an excellent job cleaning up on the glass, ranking 12th in the country in total rebounding percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. There's still some uncertainty as to whether Luka Doncic will play on Saturday night after missing last night's home game against the Pacers due to tightness in his back. That was more of a maintenance-related absence than anything else as far as I'm concerned and I expect to see Luka back on the floor in this second of back-to-backs for the Mavs. New Orleans played last night as well, suffering a home loss against the Nuggets. With both teams coming off subpar offensive showings last night I expect to see both bounce back with big performances on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-2 when the Pelicans revenge a road loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling 237.1 points on average. They've also posted a 16-6 o/u record after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239.7 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled a whopping 273 points. When they met last March they combined to score 250 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been generally trending to the 'under' lately even though the Pistons are coming off consecutive 'over' results (the 'under' is 5-3 in their last eight games). I'm not anticipating a track meet as the Pistons and Wizards match up for the first time this season on Saturday. Note that Detroit averages a miserable 95.1 points per game when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last three seasons, with those games totaling just 206.2 points on average. They also average just 104.4 points per game - below their current season scoring average of 107.3 ppg - after scoring 110 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 217.6 points. Washington isn't in top form offensively, having scored 113 points or less in three straight games. I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Wizards to get up for this matchup with the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and Arkansas at 7:25 pm et on Saturday. This will be the second meeting between these two schools this season with Arkansas cruising to a 87-76 victory back on December 20th. Here on Saturday, I believe the Razorbacks scoring 100 or more points is well within the realm of possibility - a bold prediction, I know, but the situation sets up well for a track meet between these two up-tempo teams. Oral Roberts entered this tournament ranked a miserable 292nd in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 187th in opponents effective field goal percentage. The Golden Eagles have rode their offense to consecutive upset victories over Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16 but now face a whole other sort of challenge, as they're well aware of after running into the Hogs during the regular season. I don't expect ORU to shy away from its regular gameplan here, as it entered the tourney ranked 42nd in the nation in possessions per game. That of course plays right into the hands of an Arkansas team that likes to play at a break-neck pace, entering the tournament ranked 12th in possessions per game. There's little reason to believe the Golden Eagles can offer much defensive resistance here as they rank north of 200th in the country in steals per possession and do an awful job rebounding, checking in north of 300th in total rebounding percentage. The hope for ORU here is that Arkansas gets a little carried away running the floor and lacks a bit of focus at the defensive end of the floor. After getting bogged down in a narrow win over defensive-minded Texas Tech, the Hogs will certainly welcome the opportunity to get loose in this one but it may come at the expense of their own defense. Either way, much like the regular season matchup did, I'm confident this one finds its way 'over' the lofty but not unreasonable posted total, noting that Arkansas averages a whopping 93.8 points per game when the total is set between 150 and 159.5 this season, with those contests totaling an average of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 228 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. As the total suggests, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Grizzlies and Jazz in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Grizzlies have been a different team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season scoring average in a visitors' role. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has cashed at a 9-7-1 clip when they play on the road compared to a 9-15 o/u mark at home. They enter this game off three consecutive ATS victories which sets up well for the 'over', noting that it has gone 12-3 when Memphis plays after consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 234.7 points. Of course, Utah boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Even during a recent hiccup, the Jazz still continued to rack up the points and check into this one having scored 114 points or more in 13 straight games. That's even more impressive considering eight of those 13 games were played on the road. Here at home, Utah averages 117.8 points per game. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies have allowed 119.8 ppg as an underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons. The last two meetings between these two teams have produced 238 and 239 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143 | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Memphis at 9 pm et on Thursday. Boise State has given up 80+ points in back-to-back games which I don't think speaks to the identity or quality of this Broncos team. Meanwhile, Memphis has been playing like an elite defensive team for weeks and does match up well with the Boise offense here. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Memphis checks in playing away from home off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 128.9 points. The Tigers have allowed just 62 points per game in lined contests as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Boise State has allowed just 67 points per game after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons. Here, the Broncos will run into a Memphis squad that ranks top-three in the nation in opponents floor percentage this season. The Tigers also rank eighth in the country in steals per possession and 15th in block percentage. Boise State is what I would consider a 'tough out', however, noting that the Broncos do rank a respectable 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 60th in turnovers per possession on offense. I'm not expecting a third straight track meet for Boise here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have gone ice cold offensively over the course of a four-game losing streak which seemingly came out of nowhere. If Miami is going to snap its skid on Thursday night, I believe it will have to lean on its defense, which has the potential to be one of the best units in the league. Note that Miami checks in having allowed just 106.8 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 217.5 points. The Heat have been a positive momentum play from a defensive standpoint, having allowed just 104.3 points per game after consecutive 'under' results, with those contests totaling an average of just 213.6 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers have given up 109.9 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. That's not an impressive number on the face of it, but when you consider they give up an average of 115.5 points per game overall this season, it's worth noting. The 'under' has gone 19-7 in that situation over the last three seasons. It seems that outside of a 50-point outburst against New Orleans last week, Damian Lillard has been a little off his game since C.J. McCollum returned to the Blazers lineup. Expect some carry-over in the face of a tough defensive challenge against what should be a desperate Heat squad tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams put up 75 points in their NIT openers but I expect them to have a tough time approaching that number as they match up in this quarter-final game on Thursday night. Note that N.C. State ranks just 225th in the nation in possessions per game while Colorado State checks in 205th. I do think the Wolfpack will be able to run their offense in this one as the Rams rank 258th in steals per possession and 232nd in block percentage. However, Colorado does rank an impressive 64th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention 25th in opponents floor percentage. The Rams offense will be taking a step up in class against N.C. State here, noting that the Wolfpack rank 11th in the country in steals per possession and 34th in block percentage. I do think Colorado State will have a tough time getting comfortable at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, this is a Rams squad that shoots below 44% from the field away from home this season. Also alarming for Colorado State is the fact that it ranks 251st in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-24-21 | Suns v. Magic OVER 213 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Magic's double-digit loss to the Nuggets last night. Despite Orlando's awful night offensively the game still ended up approaching the posted total. Tonight, I look for the Suns and Magic to eclipse what is a relatively-low total by today's NBA standards. Note that the Suns were also involved in a relatively low-scoring affair last night, posting a 110-100 win in Miami. Phoenix falls into an interesting situation here, as it has posted a 17-7 o/u record after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228.4 points. Meanwhile, the Magic are a solid negative momentum play defensively, supporting our cause with the 'over', as they give up 115.3 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 222.8 points. I can certainly understand the logic behind the low posted total here as the first meeting between these two teams produced just 199 points in a Suns rout back on February 14th. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met in Orlando they combined to produce a whopping 242 total points in a Magic upset victory last season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Nuggets and Magic square off in Orlando. Denver still managed to shoot 50% from the field in Sunday's home loss to the Pelicans - its third straight game shooting 50% or better. Of course, that's nothing out of the ordinary as the Nuggets have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of their last 10 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Nuggets come off a home loss this season, with those games averaging 226.6 total points. We've also seen an average total of 223.6 points scored when the Nuggets come off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. Orlando got bogged down in a matinee affair in Boston on Sunday, scoring just 96 points in a blowout loss. Keep in mind, in their most recent home game, the Magic scored 121 points in an upset win over the Nets (we won with Orlando in that contest). The Magic have been getting healthier and generally playing better basketball lately and should be able to take advantage of a Denver squad that ranks bottom-five in the league in both opponents' floor percentage and opponents effective field goal percentage over its last three games. Take the over (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be forced to miss Monday's game due to a nagging injury but that has only resulted in a slight shift in the total. After the first meeting between these teams sailed 'over' the total earlier this season, I believe the number will prove too high on Monday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-15 when the Pacers come off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.6 points on average. The Pacers average just 107.8 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, as is the case here. That scoring average is well below their season average of 113.1 points per game. Likewise, with Indiana coming off of three straight games that reached 215 or more points this season, its next game has averaged just 220.7 total points, well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. The Bucks check in allowing just 103 points per game against division opponents over the last two seasons. After allowing 113 points in a win over a road-weary Spurs team that was playing the second of back-to-back nights on Saturday, and likely without Giannis in the lineup, I look for the Bucks to clamp down defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Florida State at 7:45 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in second round action on Monday night. The Buffaloes exploded for 96 points in a rout of Georgetown on Saturday but I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Monday's opponent, Florida State, entered the tournament ranked 12th in the nation in block percentage and 32nd in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. For its part, Colorado entered the tournament ranked a very respectable 41st in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 30th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Buffaloes 96-point outburst in the opening round was unlikely considering they rank north of 300th in the country in possessions per game. I expect a much different type of game to unfold against the Seminoles on Monday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado comes off a game where 155 or more points were scored over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 126.6 points on average. The 'under' is also 24-8 when Colorado plays after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 132.3 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5 | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Illinois at 12:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Illinois' opening round win over Drexel and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as the Illini take in Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers play at one of the slowest paces in the entire nation, yet they're coming off an 'over' result in their opening round matchup - a 71-60 win over Georgia Tech. Note that in 10 games where the Ramblers played on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, those contests totaled an average of just 126.7 points. Loyola-Chicago entered the tournament ranked tops in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 14th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Of course, Illinois is no slouch defensively as we saw on Friday as it held Drexel to 30.6% shooting. While Loyola-Chicago will likely improve on that shooting performance here, I'm not convinced it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total. In what has the potential to be a tightly-contested affair it's worth mentioning that Illinois ranks 234th in the country in free throw percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
CBB First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and BYU at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in UCLA's overtime victory over Michigan State in Thursday's First Four matchup and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Saturday as the Bruins take on the Cougars of BYU. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, Bruins head coach Mick Cronin noted during the Pac-12 Tournament that his team had 'hit a wall' both mentally and physically. I mentioned that I felt the week off following their exit from the Pac-12 Tournament might serve them well and that's precisely what appeared to be the case on Thursday as the Bruins played loose and scored 86 points (77 of those in regulation time), shooting better than 46% from the field and turning the ball over only eight times. I like the way this sets up as another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Note that UCLA checks in 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and an even better 27th in floor percentage. For its part, BYU also ranks highly at the offensive end of the floor, sitting 42nd in offensive efficiency and 59th in floor percentage. While the Cougars also check in as a solid defensive team, it's certainly worth noting that they didn't face many elite offenses outside of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. In two matchups against Gonzaga, BYU gave up 82 and 88 points. While UCLA is by no means on the same level as Gonzaga, the point is still worth making as a now-healthy Bruins squad is certainly capable of giving the Cougars some heartburn defensively. I like the fact that neither team causes a great deal of chaos at the defensive end of the floor. UCLA ranks a miserable 299th in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. For its part, BYU ranks 329th and 220th in those two categories, respectively. While the Bruins don't prefer a fast pace, ranking 288th in possessions per game, they do make up for it by ranking 61st in extra scoring chances per game. This may not turn out to be a track meet, but it doesn't have to be with the total sitting in the 130's. Take the over (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5 | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Drexel and Illinois at 1:15 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Illinois' Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Illini begin what they hope will be a deep NCAA Tournament run. While the Illini should handle Drexel without too much heartburn, there are a number of reasons why I believe the Dragons can at least keep things respectable and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the total. Drexel actually ranks 42nd in the nation in offensive efficiency this season and 50th in floor percentage. Against an Illinois defense that ranks 263rd in steals per possession and 224th in block percentage I do think the Dragons will be able to run their offense to a certain extent but I question how many productive possessions (possessions resulting in points) they'll have given Illinois ranks 34th in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage. Note that Drexel ranks 319th in the country in possessions per game so it isn't going to look to push the pace in this one. That's obviously a stark contrast to Illinois, which ranks 70th in possessions per game but I do think the Dragons can at least make a concerted effort to bog things down a little bit in this one - it's really their only hope of staying competitive. I'll also point out that Drexel ranks 235th in extra scoring chances per game while Illinois has also been quite average in that category, ranking 130th. Take the under (10*). |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5 | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Michigan State at 9:55 pm et on Thursday. In previous years this matchup may have set up as a defensive slugfest but given the current state of both programs, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Thursday night. Note that both UCLA and Michigan State have given up well north of 70 points per game away from home this season. Michigan State enters this game riding a six-game 'under' streak and admittedly played pretty solid defense down the stretch. I believe UCLA will give it some trouble on Thursday night, however. The time off since the Bruins made their unceremonious exit from the Pac-12 Tournament should have served them well as this was a team that head coach Mick Cronin admitted had 'hit the wall' near the end of a trying season due to injuries and otherwise. This 'First Four' berth gives the Bruins a new lease on life, so to speak. Note that UCLA ranks an impressive 28th in the nation in floor percentage this season and also checks in 62nd in the country in extra scoring chances per game. The problem for the Bruins is that they rank 199th in opponents effective field goal percentage, really not able to make life difficult on opposing offenses with any consistency over the course of the season. Michigan State got bogged down offensively at times but that's pretty much par for the course against some elite defensive teams in the Big Ten. Keep in mind, prior to the onset of conference play, the Spartans averaged 84.8 points per game in six non-conference tilts. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 239.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in an absolute thriller two nights ago with Damian Lillard bringing the Blazers all the way back in a 125-124 come-from-behind victory. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Thursday, as the seemingly lofty total would suggest. I actually feel the total could be even higher than it is. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 when the total is set at 230+ points in games involving the Pelicans this season. That situation has produced an average total of 247.9 points. Interestingly, the Blazers have posted an 11-0 o/u record when playing at home off a game they won but failed to cover the spread, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 244.4 points. This series couldn't be much more higher-scoring with the last four meetings producing 249, 250, 243 and 255 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Drake and Wichita State at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as more of a grind-it-out, defensive battle than the oddsmakers are accounting for on Thursday. I expect to see both teams run their offenses in this one, with not a lot of fast break and transition points with both sides adept at taking care of the basketball. Note that Drake ranks an impressive ninth in the country in fewest turnovers per possession while Wichita State checks in a very respectable 24th. Drake is also 299th in the country in possessions per game with Wichita State in the middle of the pack in that department, ranking 168th. I'm not expecting either team to stray from their preferred style and really look to speed things up here with a berth in the field of 64 on the line. Drake is expected to have ShanQuan Hemphill back in the lineup for the first time since February but it remains to be seen how much he will contribute in his first game back. Both teams rank top-100 in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage this season, with Wichita State sitting in the top-50. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 when Wichita State follows two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 129.5 points. With the Missouri Valley Conference being quite top-heavy this season, Drake was able to pad its offensive stats against some weak opposition. Meanwhile, Wichita State - a former MVC member - now resides in the American Athletic Conference, which is known for its high-scoring, up-tempo teams. It all adds up to a relatively high posted total for this one, and I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-21 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 213 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Cavs will be playing just their third game since the All-Star break with neither of the previous two going well at all - blown out by 34 and 18 points at the hands of the Pelicans and Hawks. With that in mind, I do expect to see them play some defense here tonight and they draw perhaps a more favorable matchup with the Heat unlikely to really push the pace. Note that Miami's offense is below-average - the Heat haven't shot better than 50% from the field in a game just once since February 20th. On the flip side, Miami has been an excellent defensive team on its home floor, giving up just north of 107 points per game on below 44% shooting. This isn't a likely breakout spot for the Cavs offense, noting that they average just 98.7 points per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Brooklyn at 8:05 pm et on Monday. New York turned in a peak offensive performance in Saturday's 119-97 rout of the Thunder in Oklahoma City with R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle going off for a combined 58 points on 20-of-36 shooting. Here, they'll obviously be facing a much tougher test against a Nets squad that while known for their offense, can play some defense as well. Brooklyn held Detroit to an almost unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 95 points on Saturday - the third time it has held an opponent to fewer than 100 points in its last nine games. Here, the Nets catch the Knicks in a favorable spot, with New York having averaged just 103.1 points per game after being involved in three straight games where at least 215 points were scored over the last three seasons. For whatever reason, the Knicks seem to get stronger defensively the longer they stay on the road. Off two consecutive road games this season, New York is allowing just 100.1 points per game. All Knicks road games have totaled an average of only 206.2 points, with the 'under' cashing at a 14-7 clip. The only previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled 225 points and that's likely why we're seeing a considerable bump in the total here (that first matchup saw a closing total of just 216.5 points). Take the under (10*). |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 88-91 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Illinois at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. Illinois has absolutely lit it up through two games at this tournament, scoring 90 and 82 points in wins over Rutgers and Iowa. It faces a much tougher defensive challenge on Sunday, however, in the form of a streaking Ohio State squad. The Buckeyes limited a terrific Michigan team to 67 points on 35% shooting yesterday, and the Wolverines only got to that number thanks to a desperate late scoring flurry. While Illinois obviously poses a stiff test, the Buckeyes did hold the Illini to 73 points despite allowing them to shoot 52% from the field in a losing effort just last weekend. I certainly don't anticipate Illinois shooting better than 50% today with a Big Ten Championship on the line. Illinois gave up 71 points in yesterday's win but that was the first time it allowed north of 70 points since February 23rd against Michigan State. Don't count on Ohio State shooting better than 50% from three-point range again today. Take the under (10*). |
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03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 128.5 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and San Diego State at 6 pm et on Saturday. This has all the makings of one of Saturday's most entertaining games but that certainly doesn't mean we should expect a track meet. Both teams are capable of playing lock down defense although San Diego State is coming off an uncharacteristically high-scoring affair in last night's 77-70 win over Nevada. I expect a return to 'normal' here on Saturday. Utah State had little trouble getting past a good Colorado State team last night, allowing just 50 points in a double-digit victory. The Aggies check in eighth in the country in defensive rating. For their part, the Aztecs rank 11th in defensive rating. When these two teams met back on January 16th they combined to score 123 points. This feels like it could be a 'first to 60 wins' type of game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-04-21 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 234.5 | Top | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Memphis is coming off consecutive offensive explosions away from home, scoring 133 and 125 points in victories over the Rockets and Wizards, respectively. Of course, it will be taking a major step up in class here against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Bucks. Note that Milwaukee will certainly be in a foul mood after suffering a 128-97 loss at home against the Nuggets on Tuesday. That flat spot probably should have been expected given it was coming off consecutive close wins in nationally-televised games against the Pelicans and Clippers. That blowout result sets us up well with the 'under' in this matchup, noting that the Bucks have allowed just 106.6 points per game following an outright loss as a favorite over the last three seasons. Those 50 games totaled an average of just 223.6 points. To take it a step further, Milwaukee has allowed just north of 100 ppg when coming off a double-digit upset loss as a favorite over that same period, with those contests reaching just 216.5 total points on average. With the Grizzlies coming off consecutive road games, their next contest has averaged just north of 215 total points over the last three seasons. Keep in mind, Memphis actually owns a losing record at home compared to a winning mark on the road this season, scoring around three points per game below its season average in the host role. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 215.5 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's quite surprising that the books haven't sent out a higher total for this one, knowing full well bettors will be itching for action and quick to pull the trigger on the 'over' in this high-profile late night matchup on Tuesday. With all of that being said, I can't help but feel this total has been set too low, and believe both offenses are in line for strong performances in this intriguing Western Conference showdown. Note that the Suns will be playing their third road game in the last five days, a situation that has produced an average total of 234 points over the last two seasons. There have been 11 occasions where the Suns have played on the road after winning four of their last five games over the last three seasons, and those contests have reached an average total of over 231 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen their games average just shy of 223 total points when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here. The 'under' has cashed in the Suns last two games and the Lakers last three and both teams rank well in most defensive categories. That's why we're seeing such a low total (by today's NBA standards) but I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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