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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-02-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Suns are having a difficult time adjusting to life without Chris Paul, having dropped consecutive games at home against the Pelicans and Jazz. I am confident we'll see them 'get right' on Wednesday as they host a reeling Blazers squad, but I'm more comfortable playing the 'under' than I am laying the points. Note that Phoenix has allowed just 105.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (39-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 218.1 total points and a 14-25 o/u record. When coming off an 'over' result this season, we've seen the Suns give up just 104 points per contest, leading to an average total of 218.5 points (28-game sample size). The Blazers check in allowing 112.6 points per game on the season, but that number drops to 109.4 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, leading to an o/u record of 5-14 in that spot. This is a game the Suns will want to 'manage' as it tips off a stretch of five games in eight nights (in four different cities). Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, and with a number of key injuries including one to Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers have managed to score only 95 and 92 points in two games since the All-Star break. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and Arkansas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. While we're dealing with a lower posted total for this game than we did for that previous matchup, I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. LSU has done a nice job defensively over the last month or so but unfortunately its offense hasn't always lived up to its end of the bargain. The Tigers have held five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals while limiting five straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. It was actually their most recent opponent that got off those 56 attempts, that being Missouri in a game where it scored just 55 points on 20 made field goals. The Tigers are allowing just 24 made FG's per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Arkansas rolls into this matchup off four straight wins. While it did manage to come away victorious in both games, I'm not convinced it wants the pace up around where it was in its last two contests against Florida and Kentucky. Prior to allowing 26 and 30 made field goals in their last two games, the Razorbacks had held four of their previous five opponents to 24 made FG's or less, giving up 21 or less in three of those contests. The Hogs filled up the boxscore in their last two games but are also just two games removed from knocking down only 18 field goals in a very low-scoring game against Tennessee (106 total points). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with LSU coming off consecutive ATS wins this season and 11-3 with Arkansas having won six or seven of its last eight games ATS over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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03-02-22 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | 95-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While this game is being priced as a potential track meet in the betting marketplace, I believe the total will prove too high. The Kings have been shooting the lights out lately but I'm not convinced it continues here. The pace hasn't necessarily been there but the Kings have seen three of their last four games go 'over' the total, despite the fact that they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all four of those games while also limiting their opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last three contests. The new-look Pelicans should pose a considerable challenge here. New Orleans has come out of the break holding the Suns and Lakers to 36-of-82 and 35-of-84 shooting, respectively, in posting consecutive wins. We'll see if their offensive surge will continue at home, where they average 109 points per game on 40 made field goals including only 11 made three-pointers per game here in the Big Easy this season. The Kings have limited the Pelicans to 109 and 99 points in two previous meetings this season. While the addition of C.J. McCollum has certainly provided a boost, I can see this as a big of a letdown spot for the home side, helping keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on Sunday in New York in a game that totalled 234 points. We're dealing with a higher posted total as a result for this one, but I don't believe the adjustment is warranted. Keep in mind, Sunday's game saw a whopping 79 free throw attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see a similar story unfold here, noting that the first two meetings between these two teams this season totalled only 211 and 199 points with no more than 32 free throw attempts in either contest. The 76ers average just 107.1 points per game when playing at home off a victory this season, as is the case here (19-game sample size). When playing at home following an 'over' result, that number drops to 104.3 points with an average total of just 207.3 points (12-game sample size). Finally, I'll point to the fact that the 'under' is 31-18 in the last 49 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 232.5 | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw this same matchup two nights ago with the Magic cruising to a 119-103 victory over the Pacers, easily staying 'under' the total. That was a tough back-to-back spot for the Pacers. Here, I expect them to put up more of a fight and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. Indiana has now scored more than 100 points in eight straight games. The problem is it has also allowed 100+ points in all eight of those games, with those eight opponents all scoring 107 or more points. Interestingly, the Pacers have allowed a whopping 123.9 points per game in games where the total has been posted at 230 points or higher over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Magic have topped out at 119 points this season, reaching that number on three different occasions. They enter tonight's game having posted exactly 119 points in consecutive games - in other words, they're playing their best offensive basketball of the season. Like the Pacers, they've had trouble keeping the ball out of their own basket, however, allowing 103 points or more in six straight games. They've actually been worse defensively at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 112.0 points per game here in Orlando. We've certainly seen the Magic make a concerted effort to push the pace a little more than usual lately, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 40+ field goals in all four contests. The Pacers will certainly afford them plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, noting that they've yielded 91, 101 (overtime), 91 and 96 FG attempts in their last four games. The 'over' checks in 13-3 over their last 16 contests. Take the over (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and USC at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 135 points. Both teams are coming off 'under' results. Those two factors only serve to keep Tuesday's posted total in check. Both teams are giving up a ton of opportunities right now. Arizona has allowed 12 of its last 13 opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Its only opponent over that stretch that didn't top the 60 FG mark was Washington and that was a game that still reached 160 points. USC has allowed 60+ FG attempts in six straight games. The Trojans aren't likely to force the Wildcats into a slugfest here and even if they could, that type of contest likely wouldn't favor them anyway given that the first meeting between these two teams this season was relatively low-scoring and still went Arizona's way by nine points. USC does come in having knocked down 59 shots in its last two games. The Trojans have won six games in a row and haven't seen consecutive games stay 'under' the total since February 3rd and 5th. Take the over (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Bearcats were embarrassed by Houston 80-58 on their home floor back on February 6th. In fact, this series has been all Cougars lately as they've taken each of the last three meetings by 20+ points. I do expect Cincinnati to put up more of a fight on Tuesday but if it is going to accomplish that, it will need to tighten things up defensively. The good news is, the Bearcats have done a better job of keeping opposing offenses under wraps on the road than they have at home this season. Note that they allow just 23 made field goals including only five made threes per game on the road this season. Houston has of course been lights out defensively all season but particularly of late. The Cougars have limited opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last 11 games. With the Bearcats having only managed to score 52, 54 and 58 points against them in their last three meetings there's a low probability that the Cougars suddenly get blitzed here. Note that Houston allows a ridiculously-low 18 made field goals including only six made threes per game here at home this season. Take the under (6*). |
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03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey Tech and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these offenses are slumping right now and given the first meeting between the two squads this season totalled only 127 points, I'm not expecting anything resembling a track meet on Tuesday. New Jersey Tech has topped out at 24 made field goals in its last six games with that performance coming last time out, in a game in which it hoisted up 63 field goal attempts and still scored just 63 points. Stony Brook has made just 22, 18 and 24 field goals in its last three contests. We have seen the Sea Wolves tighten things up defensively over that stretch, however, yielding a grand total of just 63 made field goals over those three games. New Jersey Tech's last two opponents have shot the lights out, leading directly to a pair of 'over' results. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either of those contests and I don't believe it will be in Tuesday's game either. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
SEC Regular Season Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Georgia enters Tuesday's clash with Tennessee having seen the 'over' cash in five straight games and I look for that streak to continue here. The Vols should have little trouble 'filling it up' against the Bulldogs, noting that Georgia has allowed 30+ made field goals in five straight games. In fact, each of the Dawgs last three opponents have shot better than 51% from the field. The Vols will be looking to 'get right' offensively after struggling a bit with their shooting over their last five contests. I have no doubt that the Georgia defense will be the cure for what ails them. We have seen Tennessee make a concerted effort to push the pace over the last couple of games, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in consecutive wins over Missouri and Auburn. That quicker pace should open the door for the Bulldogs to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Note that despite Georgia's recent struggles, it has shot reasonably well despite a slew of slower-paced contests. Also note that the Vols do send opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game on the road this season while Georgia has shown the ability to get there with some consistency at home, averaging 21 attempts per contest on this floor. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 237.5 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a wild 133-129 loss in Miami on Saturday. It was obviously from the jump that Miami took a win for granted in that game with the Spurs missing a number of key contributors including Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. Here, I don't think the Spurs will be so fortunate. Go up and down the San Antonio lineup and you'll see that virtually the entire roster shot the lights out in that game on Saturday. It will face a different challenge here though, with the Grizzlies coming out of the break playing solid defense, limiting Minnesota and Chicago to a combined 82-for-186 (44%) shooting. Note that the Grizz have held the Spurs to 105 and 110 points in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, Memphis has scored fewer than 120 points in three straight games after eclipsing that mark in six consecutive games previously. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-5 with the Spurs playing on the road following an ATS win this season, leading to an average total of 218.7 points. Better still, the 'under' is 22-9 with San Antonio coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 216.4 points. The Spurs are coming off three straight 'over' results, matching their longest such streak of the season. Take the under (6*). |
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02-28-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat have now seen their last two games go 'over' the total and you would have to go back six games to find the last time they've held an opponent to under 100 points. Keep in mind, they've had only two stretches longer than five games without holding an opponent under the century mark on only two previous occasions this season. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for high-scoring affairs, but in Miami's most recent game, it shot better than 56% from the field while its opponent, San Antonio shot 55.6%. I don't expect that type of track meet to unfold here as the Heat will be looking to 'manage' proceedings before a back-to-back road set beginning on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. The Bulls are coming off one of their weaker offensive performances in weeks as they scored 110 points on 41.9% shooting in a loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday. This certainly isn't an ideal bounce-back spot noting they average right around 3.0 points less than their season average in terms of points per game on the road this season. Note that they've scored just 104 and 92 points in two previous meetings with Miami this season. Take the under (9*). |
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02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson at 7 pm et on Monday. The fact that this is a matchup between two bottom-dwellers in the NEC has most expecting a rather sloppy, low-scoring affair. I'm not so easily convinced. Rather than simply 'play out the string', we saw Fairleigh Dickinson throw caution to the wind down the stretch and it all started with a wild 91-82 loss against the same opponent it will face on Monday, Central Connecticut State, back on February 5th. Including that contest, FDU scored 82, 65, 82, 44, 93, 88 and 77 points. The Knights have essentially been stuffing boxscores since late January. They should have little trouble terrorizing a Central Connecticut defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. The question here is whether CCU can do its part to help this one 'over' the total. Given that it shot 50% on 64 field goal attempts when these two teams last met earlier this month and the fact that FDU has yielded 60+ FG attempts in six of its last eight games, allowing 30+ made field goals in half of those contests, I believe it can. We're dealing with a short pointspread for a reason in this game in my opinion, and I'm confident that the Blue Devils can 'fill it up' against a vulnerable FDU defense and ultimately keep within arm's reach, helping generate a flurry of late scoring as well, even if we may not even need that support. Take the over (10*). |
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02-27-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227 | 124-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers blowout loss to the Warriors on Thursday night but we were somewhat fortunate to do so as Portland had a difficult time just getting shots off, let alone scoring, as it attempted just 78 field goals and shot below 40%. Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, not to mention the fact the Blazers are dealing with a number of key injuries, including one to Jusuf Nurkic, it's likely going to be a grind for them down the stretch. The Nuggets will be an unforgiving opponent on Sunday night. With that being said, Denver is playing its third game in four nights, in three different cities, and likely won't have much interest in a track meet here. The Nuggets didn't look to have the freshest legs last night as they knocked down just 38-of-82 (46.3%) of their field goal attempts against an awful Kings defense. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'over' lately, neither have been involved in what you would consider ultra fast-paced games lately. Nuggets opponents have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last five games while the Blazers have limited the opposition to 90 or less FG attempts in six straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Take the under (6*). |
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02-27-22 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Hornets have absolutely abused the Pistons defense in two previous meetings this season, scoring 140+ points in both games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Since giving up 141 points in a blowout loss at home against the Hornets on February 11th, the Pistons have held their last four opponents to 103, 111, 103 and 113 points. Their offense remains unreliable, noting that they've been held under 100 points three times over their last nine games and check in averaging just 101.2 points per game on the road this season. Worse still, they average just 100.6 points per contest when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Hornets went into the All-Star break losers of three games in a row but did respond with a 125-93 victory over the Raptors in their first game back on Friday. That marked the first time since January 21st they held an opponent to under 100 points and gives them something to build on heading into Sunday's game. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Hornets playing at home off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 215.2 points. The 'over' is 2-0-1 in the Pistons last three games overall but the pace really hasn't been there, noting that two of Detroit's last three opponents got off just 77 field goal attempts while Detroit attempted just 86 and 87 field goals in its last two contests. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season. Note that the 'under' is 21-12 with Detroit playing with double-revenge this season, resulting in an average total of just 212.1 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montana State and Montana at 5 pm et on Saturday. Montana enters this game on the heels of seven consecutive 'over' results. With that in mind, we're not seeing a major adjustment to the total compared to the first meeting between these two in-state rivals this season, despite that contest reaching just 125 total points (that game saw a closing total of 137.5). Montana has been a different team at home compared to on the road, absolutely locking down the opposition, allowing just 20 made field goals per game including only five from beyond the arc. While the Grizzlies have scored 70+ points in three consecutive games entering Sunday's contest, that's been the exception rather than the rule as they eclipsed that mark in only seven of their previous 14 conference games this season. Montana State currently leads the Big Sky Conference with a 13-3 record and has certainly been 'filling it up' lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. It shot better than 50% from the field but still scored 'only' 66 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. In that game, the Bobcats only managed to get off 45 field goal attempts (they also got to the free throw line 19 times, two shy of their season average). Off consecutive losses and sinking in the Big Sky standings, I do expect Montana to put up a serious fight in this game, as the line would indicate and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 130.5 | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Bakersfield and Hawaii at midnight et on Saturday. We saw CSUB's seven-game 'over' streak come to an end last time out as it was involved in a slugfest that totalled only 121 points against Cal-Poly. I expect more of the same as it heads to Hawaii on Saturday. Both of these teams have done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities. CSUB checks in allowing just 22 made field goals per game on the road this season. While opponents have gotten to the free throw line with consistency against them, Hawaii doesn't figure to be a team to take full advantage, noting that it averages only 17 trips to the charity stripe per game and got there only 12 times in the first meeting between these two this season (that game totalled only 122 points). Hawaii has really stepped it up defensively of late, limiting three of its last four opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals. It does send opponents to the free throw line 20 times per game here at home but again, CSUB doesn't figure to take advantage, noting that it gets to the line just 15 times per contest and shoots sub-70% from the stripe on the road this season. Take the under (6*). |
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02-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 236 | 126-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Nets and Bucks on Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Nets are coming off yet another loss, this time in blowout fashion at home against the Celtics on Thursday. Boston barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that contest so I shudder at the thought of what the Bucks, who haven't played since the All-Star break, will be able to do on Saturday night. Incredible, seven of the Nets last nine opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. The good news is, they're back on the road, where they of course have the much-needed services of Kyrie Irving to at least attempt to keep pace. Note that Brooklyn is averaging 113.2 points per game on the road this season, nearly three points north of its season scoring average. While the Bucks should be able to score at will in this game, I question whether they'll be able to stop Brooklyn. Note that Milwaukee's opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, scoring 131, 122, 119 and 123 points over its last four games. In fact, the Bucks have given up 108+ points in seven straight games. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met back in January, the Nets were at home and didn't have Kyrie Irving. They still scored 109 points despite shooting a woeful 6-of-27 from beyond the arc. They average double that - 12 made threes per game - on the road this season. For their part, the Bucks have allowed 14 made three-pointers per contest here at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 226 | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in San Antonio's wild 157-153 double-overtime win in Washington last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Spurs continue their road trip in Miami on Saturday. The Heat played last night as well, securing a 115-100 win over the Knicks in New York. This is a game where Miami will be looking to 'manage' proceedings in my opinion as they have another game at home against Chicago on Monday before a back-to-back on the road in Milwaukee and Brooklyn on Wednesday and Thursday. In other words, I don't think the Heat have any interest in a track meet here. Note that Miami has done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding three of their last six opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Spurs coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of 212.2 points. The Heat took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 112-95 score on February 3rd and that's notable as the 'under' is 16-6 with the Spurs on the road seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 216.1 points. Take the under (8*). |
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02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 155 points and as a result we're looking at a higher posted total for this rematch (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 145.5). I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. There was really nothing special about that first matchup as far as the performance of the two offenses goes. In fact, South Dakota actually knocked down only four three-pointers in the game - three less than its season average. The two teams also made just 20 free throws combined, less than their combined per game season average of 26. South Dakota enters this game off three consecutive 'under' results. I simply don't see this game being played at the same relatively slow pace that we saw in any of those three games. Note that Oral Roberts comes in having knocked down a whopping 69 field goals over its last two games. But it is also affording the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, allowing 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 4-2 clip over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Loyola-Chicago and Northern Iowa at 6 pm et on Saturday. The opposition has been absolutely filling it up against Northern Iowa lately, knocking down 35. 26, 29 and 32 field goals in the Panthers last four games, leading to a 3-1 o/u record over that stretch. There's little reason to think Loyola-Chicago can't add to the Panthers defensive woes here, as it comes in off an 82-point explosion against Evansville and has scored 70+ points in four of its last five contests. The question here is whether Northern Iowa can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably-priced total. I believe the Panthers can as they come into this one after scoring 72, 95 and 88 points over the course of a three-game winning streak. They scored only 58 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season (that game still got into the 140's) but shot just 40% from the field and got to the free throw line only six times in that game. In fact, we saw just six made free throws in that contest (the two teams combine to average 26 made free throws per game this season). With this total sitting in the 130's, I believe we have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' recently I believe the extended All-Star break can serve as a 'catalyst for change' heading into Friday's showdown in Salt Lake City. While it's true the 'under' is 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games overall, it has also scored 103+ points in 10 of its last 11 games, only failing to reach the century mark in a tough back half of a two-game set against the Clippers (we noted that was a poor spot for Dallas and successfully backed Los Angeles in a 99-97 victory). The 'under' is 6-1 in Utah's last seven games. It has scored over 100 points in nine straight games, boosted by the recent returns of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Jazz have also given up 100+ points in nine of their last 11 games, only holding an undermanned Warriors squad and the lowly Magic under that scoring mark over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with Utah playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 217.4 points. Mavs road games have totalled an average of 221.7 points over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Arlington and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. While the first meeting between these two teams was played at a break-neck pace and ultimately got into the 170's, I don't expect anything of the sort in Friday's rematch. South Alabama is playing a completely different style of basketball now than it was back in that late-December meeting. The Jaguars have been slowing things down to a crawl and should be even more motivated to do so as they look to snap a two-game skid on Friday. They certainly don't want to get out and run with UTA, noting that it has had considerable success doing so lately, scoring 80+ points in recent wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock. When opponents have elected to slow Arlington down, they've found success, noting that UTA has scored just 49 and 53 points in consecutive losses entering Friday's contest. South Alabama has allowed more than 21 made field goals just once in its last six games and gives up less than 58 points per game at home this season. The Jaguars figure to be able to dictate the tempo as considerable home favorites in this one. Take the under (7*). |
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02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Arkansas State at 8 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 115 points and while we're dealing with a small adjustment to the posted total in this one (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 134.5) I don't believe it will prove to be enough. Arkansas State enters this game off a five-point loss at home against Coastal Carolina as it performed poorly defensively, allowing the Chanticleers to eclipse the 70-point mark and shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves allow just 62.7 points per game on an average of only 23 made field goals including just five from beyond the arc here at home this season. Appalachian State is fresh off consecutive wins and scored 78 points in a double-digit victory over Arkansas-Little Rock last time out. The Mountaineers knocked down 32 field goals in that contest - the first time they hit more than 27 field goals in a game since posting 33 back in mid-January against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers average only 65.1 ppg on the road this season where they're good for an average of 24 made field goals including seven from three-point range, not to mention only 14 trips per contest to the free throw line. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 223 | 157-153 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Despite a pre-trade deadline fire sale of sorts, the Spurs went into the All-Star break having scored 109+ points in four straight games. The problem is, they also allowed 104 points or more in 14 consecutive games prior to the break. Meanwhile, the Wizards come out of the break after scoring 100+ points in six straight games. Like the Spurs, they haven't done a great job of defending their own basket, giving up 113+ points in four of their last six contests, only avoiding that fate against the likes of the Pistons and Nets (without all of their stars). Note that the Spurs check in averaging 112.0 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. Washington on the other hand has averaged 118.8 points per contest when coming off a double-digit win over the same time frame (20-game sample size). I expect to see both teams race up and down the floor with considerable success on Friday. Take the over (8*). |
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02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Northern Illnois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Buffalo has been on a blistering scoring pace lately, scoring 80+ points in six consecutive games. I do think Northern Illinois has a shot at knocking the Bulls off balance a little bit here, noting that the Huskies have limited opponents to just 53 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. None of NIU's last four opponents have gotten off more than 54 field goal attempts but the problem is it has allowed its last two foes to shoot 52% and 59% from the field. The good news is, the last time the Huskies allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% they followed it up with a 64-58 win over Ball State in which they held the Cardinals to 35% shooting. Buffalo allowed 84 points against Miami-Ohio last time out, barely escaping with a two-point win. Note that the Bulls have given up just 64, 74, and 69 points in their last three conference games after giving up 80+ points in their previous game. NIU certainly isn't an imposing offensive threat here at home where it averages 25 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc, while getting to the free throw line 19 times and knocking down an average of 13 of those freebies. Take the under (8*). |
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02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit OVER 144 | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Detroit at 7 pm et on Thursday. Cleveland State is on an incredible 'over' run right now, with seven of its last eight games finding their way 'over' the total with one 'push' mixed in. The Vikings have scored 85, 84, 75, 83, 98, 78 and 79 points over that stretch and I don't see the Detroit Titans doing much to slow them down here. I do think the Titans can stick around, however, and I'm certainly not alone with this pointspread sitting near a pk'em. The Titans play reasonably fast at home, and get off an average of 30 three-point attempts per game, knocking down 12 of them. If they play their cards right, they should also be afforded plenty of opportunities at the free throw line, with Cleveland State sending opponents to the charity stripe an average of 22 times per game on the road this season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 142 points but that contest was played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating tonight, not to mention the fact that Detroit knocked down only 4-of-21 three-point attempts, a performance I'm certain it can and will improve on here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Cleveland State coming off a double-digit victory over a conference opponent this season, leading to an average total of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-22 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 141.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and UCF at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Cincinnati has seen the 'over' cash in six straight games entering Wednesday's matchup with the Golden Knights in Orlando. The Bearcats have scored 70+ points in five straight games but clearly what they're doing right now isn't working as they've lost five of their last eight contests, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. I do think that UCF will be able to slow the Bearcats down, noting that the Knights allow an average of only 23 made field goals and 14 free throw attempts per game here at home this season. The 'under' has cashed in UCF's last two games and it checks in having given up fewer than 70 points in five of its last seven contests. Only one of the two games where the Knights did allow 70 or more points over that stretch found its way 'over' the total. Interestingly, Cincinnati has been at its absolute best defensively on the road this season, giving up only 23 made field goals including just three made threes per game away from home. With that being said, it has had an issue with sending opponents to the charity stripe, yielding 23 free throw attempts per game on the road. Can the Knights exploit that? I'm not so sure. UCF averages only 17 free throw attempts per contest overall and just 14 per game at home. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season and it's worth noting that we're working with a higher posted total than we saw in either of last season's two meetings. Those two games went 'over' the total but only one eclipsed the number we're working with here. That being said, seven of the last eight meetings between these two quads here in Orlando have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-22 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 66-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Texas at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in Texas' most recent game - a 61-55 loss at home against Texas Tech on Saturday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Longhorns look to bounce back against another in-state rival in TCU. As I noted in Saturday's analysis, Texas has done an incredible job playing defense at home this season, allowing only 19 made field goals including only five made threes per game, also sending opponents to the free throw line just 15 times per contest. TCU doesn't figure to be a team that will easily break down the Longhorns defense. When these two teams met back on January 25th at TCU, the Horned Frogs scored only 50 points, knocking down just 18 field goals including only two shots from beyond the arc. Were it not for 21 trips to the free throw line, that could have been a truly embarrassing offensive performance (it was already bad enough considering TCU lost by a score of 73-50). Texas actually got off an uncharacteristically-high 65 field goal attempts in that contest, helping boost their scoring output. Consider the Longhorns average just 55 FG attempts per game, 54 per contest here at home. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 8-2 with Texas coming off an ATS loss this season, resulting in an average total of only 116.2 points. Take the under (8*). |
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02-21-22 | Eastern Illinois v. SIU-Edwardsville UNDER 128 | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville at 8 pm et on Monday. Eastern Illinois has been one of the best 'under' bets in the country this season, with 19 of its 26 lined games staying 'under' the total. Few teams play at a slower pace, as the Panthers rank 296th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). To compound matters, they rank a dreadful 357th in adjusted offensive efficiency. SIU-Edwardsville plays at a faster pace but doesn't fare much better offensively, ranking 327th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Both teams have had a penchant for turning the basketball over. In fact, Edwardsville turned it over 19 times in the first meeting between these two teams this season yet Eastern Illinois still only managed to score 53 points despite all of those extra possessions. On the road, we've seen the Panthers average just 19 made field goals including an average of only six from beyond the arc. That's not to mention only eight made free throws per road game. In a game where SIU-Edwardsville figures to control proceedings and perhaps take the air out of the basketball with a sizable lead in the second half, I'm comfortable playing the 'under', even at a lower number than we saw in the first meeting this season (that game totalled only 119 points). Take the under (7*). |
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02-21-22 | Liberty v. Central Arkansas OVER 150.5 | Top | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Liberty and Central Arkansas at 8 pm et on Monday. Central Arkansas checks into this game off three consecutive 'under' results but remains one of the fastest-paced teams in the entire country, ranking 13th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. A look at its home conference games shows totals of 181, 177, 167, 188, 154, 148 and 159 points. Liberty is coming off a tougher-than-expected 88-82 win over Stetson on Saturday. The Flames don't play at nearly the same break-neck pace as Central Arkansas but as we saw on Saturday, they're certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. That's thanks in large part to the fact that they knock down 11 three-pointers per game with not much of a drop-off in production at all on the road this season. Central Arkansas will certainly afford Liberty plenty of opportunities in this contest, noting that it yields 24 three-point attempts and 20 trips to the free throw line at home this season. It's worth noting that it has held three straight opponents to fewer than 80 points as it marks the first time that has happened all season. Don't count on the Bears accomplishing that feat for a fourth consecutive game on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-20-22 | Team Durant v. Team LeBron OVER 320.5 | 160-163 | Win | 100 | 58 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Team Lebron and Team Durant at 8 pm et on Sunday. I would recommend jumping on this play early as the total is only going to rise leading up to tipoff on Sunday. Last year's All-Star Game actually totalled only 320 points. In fact, since the format changed to Team Lebron vs. Team 'insert name here', we've only seen one of four games go 'over' the total we're working with this year. I believe we're going to see a throwback to the games of 2016 and 2017, when we saw point totals up around 370 points. The talent on these two rosters is incredible (I don't need to tell you that). I also think we have two squads more than willing to push the pace at every opportunity. Team Lebron is favored for a reason. The mix of scorers and distributors should make for some very appealing offensive basketball. With that being said, you can be sure guys like Ja Morant, Trae Young and Devin Booker will ball out on the other side and should be able to keep within arm's reach all night long. I have this one soaring 'over' the total - always nice to make a little money if we're going to sit down and watch a glorified exhibition game in the middle of February. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-22 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 126.5 | 61-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two in-state rivals totalled 141 points back on February 1st. I don't think the Longhorns want any part of a similar type of contest here, noting that they allowed 77 points in that lopsided loss. Keep in mind, this is a Texas team that gives up just a shade over 50 points per game at home this season, on a ridiculously-low 49 field goal attempts. Texas Tech can play some defense too, as we saw in its impressive home win over Baylor earlier this week. The Red Raiders have held the opposition to 38% shooting on the road this season. This is without a doubt a low total, but it's actually higher than the closing number we saw in the first meeting between these two this season. With injury doubts for the Red Raiders (Kevin McCullar could miss again), I believe they'll be comfortable getting involved in a slugfest here. Expect an NCAA Tournament-like atmosphere for this one. Take the under (9*). |
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02-17-22 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 224.5 | 123-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks enter this game on the heels of six consecutive 'over' results while the Sixers are fresh off a high-scoring game of their own - an unthinkable 135-87 blowout loss at home against Boston. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-11 with the Sixers having lost four or five of their last six games ATS over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 210.0 points. Better still, the 'under' is 17-4 when Philadelphia checks in off five or six ATS losses in its last seven contests over the same stretch, leading to an average total of only 207.7 points scored in that situation. As for the Bucks, they've seen the 'under' cash at a 15-5 clip when coming off two losses in their last three games this season, producing an average total of 213.3 points. In the rest of their games, the Bucks have posted a 23-16 o/u mark. Take the under (9*). |
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02-16-22 | Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 137 | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off 80+ point performances in winning efforts on Saturday. I don't expect either side to sniff out that number on Wednesday, however. Those respective 'over' results snapped two-game 'under' streaks for both teams. They also served to give us a bit of a higher total to work than we might have otherwise seen here considering the first meeting between the Bears and Red Raiders this season saw a closing total of just 135.5 in a game that totalled only 127 points. Texas Tech pulled off a stunning 65-62 upset victory in that one, thanks in large part to shooting just shy of 51% from the field. It will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance here as Baylor has locked in defensively ever since that 83-59 loss in Kansas a week-and-a-half ago. Since then, the Bears have held Kansas State and Texas to 60 and 63 points, respectively, on a combined 41-of-115 (35.6%) shooting. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Texas Tech allowed more than 70 points. It has done a tremendous job on defense here at home this season, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-52 shooting on average while giving up just a shade over 58 points per game. In last year's meeting on this floor, Texas Tech held Baylor to just 68 points on 41.8% shooting but ultimately fell by a 68-60 score. Take the under (10*). |
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02-16-22 | Pistons v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Celtics are arguably the hottest team in the league right now and enter this game off a 135-87 drubbing of the Sixers in Philadelphia last night. With this being their last game prior to the All-Star break, I expect them to 'manage' proceedings wisely. Yes, last night's 135-point outburst was impressive but let's face it, the Sixers simply didn't show up, essentially laying down after falling behind early. Offensively explosions like that haven't been commonplace for the C's. They did have another similar performance in Brooklyn last week but followed it up by scoring just 108 and 105 points during a brief two-game homestand. Boston has actually been a slightly lower-scoring team at home compared to only the road this season, averaging 108.1 points per game. The 'under' is 18-12 at TD Garden this season with an average total of just 210.8 points. As for the Pistons, they managed to score only 94 points against a struggling Wizards squad last time out. They're just three games removed from scoring 86 points in a lopsided loss in Dallas and put up only 93 points at home against these same Celtics back on February 4th (that game totalled only 195 points). They've shot sub-38% in three of their last six games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-21 with the Pistons seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with the Celtics coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of only 203.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-15-22 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 223.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The last time we saw these two teams meet they combined to score just 195 points, staying well below the closing total of 222. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around, largely due to the Suns recent high-scoring results. In fact, the 'over' is 4-0 in the Suns last four games and has cashed in six of their last seven contests overall. I'm not convinced that's a sustainable trend when you consider the 'under' is still 28-27-1 in all Suns games this season with an average total of 219.1 points scored. The Clippers are coming off a relatively high-scoring game of their own last night against Golden State (we missed cashing our 'under' ticket by a single point). The 'over' has now come through in six of their last seven games as well. After shooting better than 52% in consecutive games, I look for the Clippers offense to come back to Earth in this back-to-back spot, as they continue to play without newly-acquired Norm Powell, and could miss Luke Kennard again as well. Last night we saw Tre Mann go off for the Clips, pacing their 119-point outburst. Keep in mind, that was their highest point total since back on January 19th. They average just 105.6 points per game on the road this season, where the 'under' has gone 15-13-1. The Suns have done a terrific job of smothering opposing offenses lately, holding seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. The Clippers don't play at all that quick of a tempo to begin with and I certainly don't anticipate them shooting the lights out against a Suns squad that limits opponents to 105.3 points per game on 43.7% shooting at home this season. Take the under (9*). |
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02-15-22 | Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 243.5 | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This game features one of the highest posted totals in the NBA this season. I believe it will prove too high. The Hornets enter this game off consecutive 'over' results. Their last game against the Grizzlies on Saturday only crept 'over' the total thanks to Memphis carrying a 31-point lead into halftime and then essentially laying down defensively in the second half, allowing Charlotte to score a whopping 75 points. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair between these two relatively evenly-matched teams tonight. Despite those to recent 'over' results, the 'under' remains 18-8 in the Hornets last 26 games. The T'Wolves are coming off a ridiculously high-scoring four-game road trip, with the 'over' cashing in all four of those games. Here, we have a 'catalyst for change' as Minnesota returns home, where it has played to considerably lower-scoring results with the 'under' cashing at a 15-11 clip. In fact, the T'Wolves average 4.1 points per game below their season scoring average while allowing 6.5 ppg less here at home. Their home games have averaged a total of just 214.4 points. It's also worth noting that the 'under' has gone 9-1 in the Hornets last 10 games played on two days' rest going back to last season, with that spot producing an average total of just 108.5 points. Take the under (9*). |
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02-15-22 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 163 | 112-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Bowling Green at 7 pm et on Tuesday. While there are times the oddsmakers can't set the total low enough (case in point our play on the Virginia-Virginia Tech 'under' last night - a sub-120 total), there are also situations where the number simply can't be set high enough. The latter is the case here in my opinion. We won a big play on a Buffalo 'over' last week - a game that reached 166 points despite its extremely lopsided nature against Eastern Michigan (Buffalo won 102-64). Here, I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair for the Bulls, but ultimately a game that will be equally, if not even higher scoring. Buffalo has taken its aggressiveness on offense to a whole new level lately, hoisting up 70+ field goal attempts in three of its last five games. The only two contests were it didn't get off 70+ shots came in lopsided affairs at Ohio (a 21-point loss) and at home against Central Michigan (a 20-point win). Bowling Green can run and gun with the best of them. In fact, only four other teams in the country rank higher in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). We successfully faded the Falcons in their most recent game as they fell by a 92-78 score at Miami-Ohio on Saturday. They've had no interest in trying to limit opponents scoring opportunities here at home, allowing 74.6 points per game on an average of 64 field goal attempts per contest. Offensively, the Falcons have been hard to handle here on their home floor, hoisting up a whopping 68 field goal attempts per game, resulting in north of 87 points per contest. These two teams met back in January in Buffalo - a game that totalled 187 points. We didn't see anything particularly out of the ordinary in that game, perhaps other than Buffalo getting to the free throw line 35 times (and making 33 of those). Even if we do temper expectations on that front, we still have plenty of wiggle room with this total sitting in the low-160's (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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02-14-22 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I'm not convinced either of these teams want to get involved in a track meet on Monday night. The Warriors will be playing for the fourth time in the last six nights after dropping two of their last three games. The 'over' has cashed in their last two contests as they uncharacteristically struggled to contain the Knicks and Lakers offenses, allowing 116 and 115 points. Here, they'll catch the Clippers just one day removed from a hard-fought 99-97 win in Dallas to snap a three-game skid. L.A. isn't going to be at full strength for this game with newly-acquired Norman Powell sidelined due to a toe injury and Luke Kennard questionable to play as well. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-8 with the Warriors coming off an ATS loss this season with those games totalling an average of just 209.3 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-4 clip after losing three of their last four games ATS this season, resulting in an average total of just 205.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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02-14-22 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas UNDER 143.5 | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas at 9 pm et on Monday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 137 points in a game where both teams played faster than usual. We're dealing with a slightly lower total for this one than we saw in that previous encounter but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. It's unlikely Kansas is going to shoot better than it has over its last four games, incredibly knocking down better than 51% of its field goal attempts in each of those four contests. Oklahoma State is fresh off a strong offensive showing of its own, scoring 81 points on 48% shooting but that came at the expense of West Virginia at home. Lost in that strong offensive performance was the fact that the Cowboys held the Mountaineers to just 31.7% shooting. That marks the second time in the last three games that Oklahoma State has held the opposition to sub-40% from the field. Note that the 'under' is on a long-term 24-15 run in this particular series. Take the under (8*). |
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02-14-22 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech UNDER 119.5 | 53-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Monday. At first glance, this looks like a pretty low total. In fact, it doesn't just look like a low total, it is. With that being said, it's warranted in my opinion. These two in-state rivals have met four times since the start of 2020 with those four games totalling 104, 109, 116 and 106 points with the latter result coming earlier this season. Both teams are rolling right now. The Cavaliers have won four in a row including a stunning upset win at Duke while the Hokies are winners of five straight games. The question will be which defense blinks first in this one as both are more than capable of stymieing the opposing offense. There have certainly been situations lately where the oddsmakers have gone a little too far in setting low totals in games involving these teams as Virginia has seen the 'over' cash in four of its last five games while Virginia Tech has posted a 6-2 o/u mark over its last eight. I don't expect that to be the case here as neither team gives an inch in this rivalry showdown. Take the under (7*). |
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02-13-22 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Mountain West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Sunday. Boise State is one of the stingiest home teams in the country, allowing just 53 field goal attempts per game (17 from beyond the arc) while sending opponents to the free throw line only 14 times per game. Yet here the Broncos are, coming off four consecutive 'over' results, with their last two games being played right here in Boise. I believe that has helped push this total a little too high. Colorado State isn't going to overwhelm anyone with its pace. In fact, the Rams play at an almost identical tempo to that of the Broncos. While they do average 73 points per game away from home, I don't see them coming close to that number against a Boise State defense that allows less than 60 points per game here at home. The Rams are fresh off a game that totalled just 115 points in a lopsided victory over Fresno State. They actually check in having shot 51% or better from the field in consecutive games but again, I don't see them approaching that level of success here. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with Colorado State involved in a game with a total set between 130 and 139.5 points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-22 | Stony Brook v. Maine UNDER 139.5 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
CBB America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Stony Brook and Maine at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 152 points but that's been far from the norm in this series with the last 10 matchups averaging a total of just 130 points. Stony Brook enters this game off a wild 87-85 win over UMass-Lowell - also not the norm for the Seawolves this season, noting that their previous three contests had all stayed 'under' the total. Stony Brook has had a bit of a difficult time controlling opponents' tempo on the road but shouldn't have such trouble here against a Maine squad that doesn't tend to get out and run here at home, averaging 56 field goal attempts per game (20 from three-point range) and gets to the free throw line an average of just 14 times per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-22 | Magic v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 105-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Orlando's loss in Utah last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Phoenix is coming off three straight 'over' results including a 131-107 win over the Bucks in an NBA Finals rematch on Thursday. I expect to see the Suns use this matchup to catch their break, to to speak, following a stretch of five games in eight nights (in five different cities). After this contest, Phoenix will get a couple of days off before a back-to-back set against the Clippers and Rockets. Orlando has now been held under 100 points in two of its last three games and doesn't figure to show much improvement against a terrific defensive opponent here, especially considering it will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights (in four different cities). While Orlando has allowed 110.7 points per game on the road this season, it has actually given up just 105.2 points per contest when playing away from home after losing three of its last four games ATS, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 212.8 total points (10-game sample size). Take the under (9*). |
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02-12-22 | Dartmouth v. Princeton OVER 139.5 | 40-85 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Princeton at 4 pm et on Saturday. Dartmouth has a tendency to yield to whatever tempo its opponent chooses to set, as we saw in the previous meeting between these two teams this season - a game that Princeton won by an 84-80 score. In this case, I'm confident we'll see the Tigers continue to push the pace, just as they have in their last four games, hoisting up 67, 64, 65 and 68 field goal attempts. Dartmouth got off 62 field goal attempts but couldn't make the most of them in a 62-60 loss at Brown last time out. Note that the Big Green have scored fairly consistently on the Ivy League road this season, racking up 71, 68, 76, 69 and 60 points in five conference road tilts. Princeton hasn't been held to fewer than 72 points since way back on November 24th at Monmouth. The Tigers have been ultra-efficient at the offensive end of the floor here at home this season, shooting better than 50% from the field and knocking down 11-of-28 three-point attempts per contest. With Dartmouth playing its fourth straight game away from home, it will need to push the pace itself in order to keep up. The good news is, the Big Green have actually shot better from beyond the arc on the road this season, knocking down an average of 10 triples per game. Take the over (9*). |
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02-11-22 | Magic v. Jazz UNDER 222.5 | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. With a four-game winning streak intact and fresh off a 26-point rout of the Warriors two nights ago, I see this as a game we see the Jazz 'manage' on Friday night at home against the lowly Magic. Orlando checks in off a blowout win in Portland. Keep in mind, that victory came after the Blazers dealt C.J. McCollum among others earlier in the day. While the Magic scored 113 points in that victory, they're just a game removed from an 83-point effort against the Celtics. I expect them to have a tough time scoring against a Jazz squad that is locked in defensively, having held their last three opponents to 41%, 38% and 36% shooting. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 207 points in an upset victory by the Magic in Orlando. That game saw a closing total of 211 points. I simply feel too much of an adjustment has been made here. Take the under (9*). |
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02-09-22 | High Point v. Presbyterian UNDER 128 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Big South Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between High Point and Presbyterian at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams are coming off very different results last time out as High Point outlasted UNC-Asheville by a 91-83 score in overtime while Presbyterian fell by a 74-69 score at Hampton. That most recent game was at home for High Point. It has struggled mightily on the road, winning just once in 10 tries. Presbyterian has proven to be a very frustrating team to play against, particularly on this floor, where it has held opponents to just 50 field goal attempts per game. For its part, High Point has had a tough time getting into any sort of rhythm on the road, getting off just 51 field goal attempts per contest. The Panthers also get to the free throw line five times less than their season average away from home. With all of that being said, High Point has also done a nice job of controlling the tempo on the road, giving up just 51 field goal attempts per game. In other words, I'm not expecting a free-flowing affair here. Presbyterian is actually coming off consecutive 'over' results - the first time we've seen that since December 6th and 12th. High Point's most recent game also found its way 'over' the total. We haven't seen consecutive games involving the Panthers go 'over' the total since December 29th and 31st with those two games coming against Michigan State and Kentucky (High Point allowed 81 and 92 points in those two games). Presbyterian has allowed just 57.7 points per game when playing at home off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons (six-game sample size), as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-6 with High Point having lost two of its last three games over the last two seasons (22-game sample size). Take the under (10*). |
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02-08-22 | Pistons v. Mavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I don't think a lot of bettors are rushing to back the 'over' in this low-key Tuesday non-conference affair. With that being said, I love the way the situation sets up. The Mavs have let their defense do the talking in their last two games, holding the 76ers and Hawks under 100 points in fairly comfortable victories. Here, I think Dallas will need its offense to do some of the heavy-lifting, noting that the Pistons have actually scored over 100 points in nine of their last 10 games, employing an up-tempo style, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games. Keep in mind, Detroit scored 117 and 105 points in a pair of matchups with Dallas last year with both of those contests flying 'over' the total. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-11 with Detroit coming off a game in which it scored 105 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 219.1 points. Better still, the 'over' is 12-4 with the Pistons off consecutive games scoring 105 points or less, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. As for the Mavs, the 'over' is a long-term 70-45 when they come off consecutive home victories, which is also the case tonight. The Mavs haven't been forced to play on consecutive nights since January 29th and 30th and inexplicably won't do so against until the third week of March. In other words, there's no need for them to 'manage' this game in the same way the Warriors did last night (as I noted in my analysis of that play on the GS-OKC 'under'). While Dallas is missing some key contributors, including Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr., it has still managed to score more than 100 points in six straight games. It's worth mentioning that the Mavs are also without one of their best defensive players in Maxi Kleber. The Pistons aren't slowing anyone down these days, allowing over 100 points in 12 consecutive contests and will be hard-pressed to improve on last year's two performances against Dallas in which they gave up 127 and 115 points. Finally, I'll note that the 'over' is 4-1 with the Pistons playing on the road off consecutive 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo OVER 148.5 | Top | 64-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
CBB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Buffalo enters this game off consecutive 'under' results. I expect that streak to be short-lived, however. No team has struggled more to control tempo (perhaps I should word that another way given the Bulls actually prefer to play at a fast pace), as Buffalo has allowed opponents to get off an incredible 68 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. Not surprisingly, Bulls home games have averaged north of 149 points per contest. Eastern Michigan doesn't operate at a blazing fast pace but it has picked it up after a couple of dismal campaigns, averaging just over 71 points per game this season. The Eagles are going to have to keep pace with the Bulls if they want to snap their current three-game skid on Tuesday. Note that Eastern Michigan has been held to 71 points or less in three straight games but this is a team that has scored 90+ points on three previous occasions this season and an arguably worse Eagles squad did manage to score 77 points (in a game that totalled 169) points in last year's meeting here in Buffalo. As I mentioned, the Bulls are coming off consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Keep in mind, the first of those two games came against one of the MAC's better teams in Ohio and the other against one of the conference's worst squads in Central Michigan. I look for a big bust-out performance from the Buffalo offense, noting that it averages just shy of 80 points per game at home this season, where it averages 28 three-point attempts per game (two more than its season average) and gets to the free throw line an average of 22 times per contest (four above its season average). EMU has allowed 80+ points in four of its last five games and has given up 90 or more points on three previous occasions this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 with Eastern Michigan coming off consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 150.9 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-07-22 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 212 | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. This is a game that Golden State can and likely will 'manage' as it begins a stretch of three games in four nights (in three different cities) between now and Thursday. The Warriors have been lighting it up offensively but actually check in having allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Considering they've only allowed four opponents to shoot better than 50% all season, that's notable. What better opponent to button things up defensively against than Oklahoma City? The Thunder have been held under 100 points in five of their last nine games overall and average just a shade over the century mark in terms of points per game at home this season. Oklahoma City is at home playing its third game in four nights tonight and doing so without a number of key contributors with the most notable being Shae Gilgeous-Alexander. Lu Dort remains questionable to play due to a nasal fracture but it does sound more likely that he'll be able to go. Nevertheless, the Warriors have held the Thunder to just 98 and 82 points in two previous meetings this season. In fact, they've held the Thunder under 100 points in four straight meetings in this series. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-14 with Golden State in the role of favorite this season and 32-15 in its last 47 games when playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-17 when the Thunder seek revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-07-22 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra OVER 145 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Colonial Athletic Association Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between N.C. Wilmington and Hofstra at 5 pm et on Monday. This will be the second meeting between these two teams in as many weeks after Wilmington prevailed by a 78-72 score at home on January 29th. The Seahawks are the surprising leaders in the CAA right now with head coach Takayo Siddle squeezing every last drop out of the talent he has at hand. As expected, Wilmington is playing fast and comes into this game off a 92-point explosion against William and Mary last time out. Of course, going up-tempo plays right into the hands of Hofstra, which checks in ranked 112th in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). Aaron Estrada has absolutely gone off for the Pride, most recently pouring in 35 points in Saturday's overtime win over James Madison. The Pride have scored 70+ points in six of their last seven games and come into this one on the heels of three straight 'over' results. Note that in that first meeting with Wilmington, the Pride knocked down only three of 18 three-point attempts. Considering they shoot 10-of-28 from beyond the arc here at home, I would expect a vast improvement over that performance here. Note that the Seahawks have held just one conference opponent to fewer than 70 points on the road this season, that being a highly-disappointing Northeastern squad in a game that still found its way 'over' the total. The 'over' has cashed in five of Wilmington's last seven games overall. Note that the second meeting between these two teams has been higher scoring than the first in each of the last three years in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-22 | Bucks v. Blazers OVER 227.5 | 137-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers loss at home against the Thunder last night. The pace was absolutely there, however, noting that Portland got off a whopping 101 field goal attempts in that contest (while allowing 87). The Blazers know they're going to have to step it up offensively tonight if they want to have any chance of keeping up with the Bucks. Portland has now been held under 100 points in three consecutive games but still averages 111 points per game at home this season (four points per game above its season average). Keep in mind, in two meetings between these teams last season, the Bucks hung 134 and 127 points on the board. After a stretch that saw it held to under 100 points in four of eight games, the Bucks have now reached the century mark in three straight. Note that the 'over' has gone 38-23 and the Bucks have averaged 115.9 points per game when playing on the road off an 'under' result over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 18-6 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 231.6 points, even including last night's low-scoring result. Take the over (8*). |
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02-05-22 | Thunder v. Kings OVER 216.5 | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the Thunder's 96-93 win in Portland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. The pace was there but neither the Thunder or Blazers shot well in last night's game. In fact, both teams shot sub-40% from the field. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. The Thunder are going to need to perform better offensively if they want to secure a third straight win as the Kings have scored 112 and 114 points over their last two games, most recently shooting north of 52% in a tough road game at Golden State on Thursday (we won with the 'over' in that game). On the flip side, the Kings have allowed at least 103 points in 18 consecutive games. Even with the Thunder's flaws offensively (noting they're without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander), they should benefit from facing a Sacramento squad that allows just under 112 points per game at home this season. Considering Kings home games have averaged 221.6 total points this season and four meetings between these two teams here since the start of 2020 have totalled 220, 224, 228 and 228 points, I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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02-05-22 | UNLV v. Utah State UNDER 139 | 75-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Utah State at 6 pm et on Saturday. Utah State got off an uncharacteristically-high 67 field goal attempts in its most recent game - a 78-62 rout of lowly San Jose State on Thursday. Off that 'over' result, we'll go the other way and back the 'under' on Saturday, noting that the 'under' has cashed on both occasions that situation has come up in conference play involving the Aggies this season. Utah State enters this game having scored 70+ points in four straight games. While UNLV isn't known for its defense, it has actually held opponents to a slightly slower pace on the road compared to at home this season, giving up fewer field goal and free throw attempts per game. The Rebels don't play at a particularly fast pace themselves, checking in 181st in the nation in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). They've gotten off 60+ field goal attempts in four of nine Mountain West games this season but scored more than 55 points in just two of those contests, with those coming against two of the conference's weakest teams in New Mexico and San Jose State. Utah State has not surprisingly done a terrific job of defending here at home this season, holding opponents to just 18 three-point attempts per game (five below their season average allowed) and 15 free throw attempts per contest. Note that the 'under' is 15-6 with Utah State coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 132.5 points. Take the under (9*). |
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02-05-22 | Sacred Heart v. St Francis NY OVER 142.5 | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacred Heart and St. Francis (NY) at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a rematch of a game between these two teams on January 27th. St. Francis took that meeting by a 71-66 score in a game that stayed 'under' the closing total. As a result we're dealing with a slightly lower total here, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. That game was played at a relatively slow pace with both teams hoisting up sub-60 field goal attempts and a combined 26 trips to the free throw line. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Sacred Heart hasn't had a hope of slowing down opponents on the road, particularly of late. It has yielded 62, 69, 63 and 65 field goal attempts in four road games since New Year's Eve and while St. Francis (NY) doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, it does play considerably faster at home and I expect it to be afforded plenty of good looks in this one. Note that opponents are shooting a ridiculous 49.3% against Sacred Heart in its road games this season, where it allows just shy of 80 points per game. I do think that Sacred Heart can stay competitive in this one, however. It shot a miserable 5-of-16 from beyond the arc in that first meeting this season but that could be considered an anomaly as the Pioneers average nine made threes per game on the season, with that average holding steady on the road. Noting that St. Francis sends opponents to the free throw line 19 times per game on average, I would also anticipate Sacred Heart improving on its 10 free throw attempts in the first matchup. When these two teams last played on this floor last February they combined to score 170 points in a wild 88-82 Sacred Heart victory. That was the back half of a two-game set with the front-end resulting in 164 total points. Noting that both teams bring plenty of returning experience to the table, I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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02-04-22 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 214 | Top | 96-93 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Monday night in Oklahoma City with the Thunder rolling to a 98-81 victory - one of the lowest-scoring games for both teams this season. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday night in Portland, however. Oklahoma City continues to play on without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander among others, but it does bring some confidence to the table off consecutive wins over the Blazers and Mavs. While the Thunder did hold Portland to just 81 points earlier this week, they've proven to be a considerably weaker defensive team on the road, where they allow 2.3 points per game above their season average and have had no luck controlling tempo, allowing opponents to get off an average of 93 field goal attempts per game away from home. In Monday's matchup, Portland knocked down just 7-of-38 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line only eight times. Perhaps that sleepy performance shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was playing the second of back-to-backs after a wild 130-116 loss in Chicago the night previous. A return home should help the Blazers cause, noting they average 3.5 points per game above their season average and make good on an average of 15 threes while getting to the free throw line 23 times per contest. Those are far more encouraging numbers than what we saw in OKC on Monday. The Thunder are undermanned right now but I'm confident guys like Lu Dort, Tre Mann and Josh Giddey can continue to pick up the slack. While the Blazers have held consecutive opponents under 100 points, that could be chalked up as an anomaly as they had given up over 100 points in 10 of their previous 11 games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 18-5 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average of 233.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Portland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 231.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-04-22 | Nets v. Jazz OVER 228.5 | 102-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Nets are coming off an ugly loss in Sacramento two nights ago as their woes continued on their current trip, which has seen them go 0-3 so far, part of a six-game skid overall. In that loss, James Harden shot 2-of-11 from the field and didn't get to the free throw line a single time. For his part, Kyrie Irving scored only 14 points. It was a generally lackadaisical offensive effort from Brooklyn, which hoisted up only 25 three-point attempts (it averages 32 attempts per game on the road this season) and got to the charity stripe just 14 times (it averages 21 attempts per game on the road this season). The Nets know they'll need to go on the attack and ramp up their offensive production if they want to have any hope of tasting victory on Friday. That's because their defense has incredibly allowed 100 points or more in 27 straight games. While the offense, or lack thereof, has been taking a lot of the heat lately, Brooklyn hasn't played a lick of defense on this trip (you could make the argument it held up ok at Golden State - notably without James Harden in the lineup), allowing 110, 121 and 112 points. Utah has had its share of struggles lately as well but snapped a five-game losing streak with a 108-104 win over Denver two nights ago and now it is expected to get Donovan Mitchell back after he missed time due to a concussion. After being held under 100 points in four of eight games, the Jazz have now put up 109, 106 and 108 points over their last three contests and I look for them to improve on those numbers here. Last time out against Denver, Utah scored 108 points despite shooting an ugly 7-of-29 from beyond the arc (it averages 15 made threes per game at home this season). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-5 with the Nets coming off an outright loss as a road favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 235.8 points. The 'over' is 12-2 with the Jazz playing at home off a win this season, leading to an average total of 232.8 points scored in that situation. Take the over (8*). |
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02-04-22 | Princeton v. Cornell OVER 157.5 | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
CBB Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Princeton and Cornell at 7 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season stayed comfortably 'under' the total as Princeton prevailed by a 72-70 score at home. There were some notable takeaways from that game. Cornell got all the looks it wanted but simply couldn't knock down enough shots, noting that it shot 43% from the field on 62 attempts. It's worth mentioning that the Big Red were playing their second game in as many days on that occasion. Here, we'll see a rested Big Red bunch having not played since last Sunday (in typical Ivy League scheduling). As further illustration to how many points Cornell left on the table in that first meeting, it made just 9-of-26 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line an uncharacteristically-low nine times (but did make nine of those freebies). The Big Red check in an impressive seventh in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will certainly look to dictate the pace against a very beatable Princeton defense here. On the flip side, the Tigers should be more than happy to be along for the ride in a potential track meet, noting that they've scored 70+ points in 13 consecutive games. This isn't the same fundamentally-sound Princeton defense we've been accustomed to seeing, however, as it has allowed 80, 76, 81, 73 and 80 points in five road games this season. The fact that the Tigers baited a slow Dartmouth squad (334th in adjusted tempo) into a game that totalled 164 points in their most recent road game is telling. Princeton is more than capable of shooting the lights out and I suspect it will be even more set on pushing the pace after Cornell was seemingly the more aggressive offensive side in the last meeting. It's worth noting that the Tigers were without sharp-shooter Jaelin Llewellyn in the first meeting, which certainly hampered their offense. He knocked down six threes in Princeton's most recent game - an 80-74 loss to Yale last Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | Kings v. Warriors OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors are absolutely rolling offensively right now. Even last time out, in a game in which they sat Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, they still managed to post a 30+ point fourth quarter in a stunning 124-120 win over a full strength Spurs squad (we unfortunately lost with San Antonio +2.5 after playing it before the news of Curry and Wiggins' absence came out). Here, there's little reason to expect anything other than an offensive onslaught against a Kings squad playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in four nights, in three different cities. Note that the Kings have allowed over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. They did manage to upset the Nets at home last night, however, and should carry some confidence into this one as a result. For their part, the Warriors have scored 130, 124, 110, 122 and 124 points over their lats five games, clearly benefiting from Klay Thompson shaking off the rust, and the re-emergence of Andrew Wiggins as a go-to scorer. On the flip side, Golden State has now given up over 100 points in four straight games. This will be a rematch of a mid-December meeting between these two teams that went the way of the Warriors 113-98. Note that the 'over' is 36-23 with the Kings seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 234.1 points. The 'over' is also 33-18 with the Kings coming off six or seven losses in their last eight games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 231.0 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | UCLA v. Arizona OVER 146.5 | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Arizona at 8 pm et on Thursday. We saw a closing total north of 150 points in the first matchup between these two teams last week. That game ultimately fizzled with just 134 points as UCLA rolled to a double-digit victory. The Wildcats followed up that loss with another unimpressive offensive showing, albeit in a double-digit win of their own over Arizona State, scoring just 67 points on 32% shooting. Keep in mind, Arizona still ranks second in the nation in adjusted tempo and 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Wildcats offense in this one. UCLA hasn't posted monster offensive numbers away from home, but that's had a lot to do with the opposition they've faced. The Bruins simply haven't had to ramp it up offensively in order to secure road victories. Again, I expect a different story to unfold here. While the Bruins defense has been terrific, it also checks in 17th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Here, we'll note that Arizona has averaged 82.1 points per game when coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those games totalling an average of 148.2 points (16-game sample size). The fact that Arizona shot just 30% on a whopping 75 field goal attempts in the last meeting indicates plenty of points were left on the table in that one. Also note that the game featured a grand total of just 16 free throw attempts. Noting that last year's meeting in Tucson totalled 157 points, I'm quite comfortable playing the 'over' in this rematch. Take the over (10*). |
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02-03-22 | Western Illinois v. Oral Roberts OVER 161.5 | Top | 90-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
CBB Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Western Illinois and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Thursday. I don't expect either of these teams to pump the breaks one bit in this rematch of a wild 87-86 Oral Roberts victory in January. We're talking about two teams that rank well inside the nation's top-50 in terms of adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) with neither boasting a great deal of defensive prowess. Western Illinois scored 'only' 75 points in a disappointing home loss against UMKC last time out. The Leathernecks left plenty of points on the table in that game as they turned the ball over 15 times and shot just 44% from the field. That marked the second time in their last four games that they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 56% from the field. Oral Roberts is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 100 and 89 points in wins over Nebraska-Omaha and Denver. While Western Illinois will pose a more difficult challenge, the Golden Eagles should be up for it. They average an incredible 87.7 points per game at home this season. That's on the strength of 13-of-31 shooting from beyond the arc. You could argue that Western Illinois was fortunate to only lose by a single point in the first meeting between these two teams this season as ORU knocked down just nine three-pointers in the game. Speaking of that contest, Western Illinois shot a woeful 40% from the field but isn't likely to shy away from pushing the pace again here, noting that it did get plenty of good looks on 64 field goal attempts, not to mention 30 free throws in that narrow loss. While this total has been adjusted by a couple of points, I don't believe it will be enough. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-22 | Binghamton v. Stony Brook OVER 141 | 77-61 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Binghamton and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We saw 145 total points in the first meeting between these two teams this season, a game that was closer than expected with Stony Brook going on the road and winning by a 74-71 score. Stony Brook left a ton of points on the table in that game as it shot a miserable 34% from the field, knocking down only five three-pointers. Binghamton essentially bailed the Seawolves out, sending them to the free throw line a whopping 34 times. I'm confident we'll see Stony Brook stay aggressively offensively and this time around, absolutely go off against a Binghamton squad that generally doesn't play a lick of defense, ranking 268th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom). Note that Stony Brook ranks 114th in the country in adjusted tempo and should relish the opportunity to get loose after facing a tough three-game stretch that included matchups against Albany, Vermont and New Hampshire. The Seawolves are averaging just shy of 75 points per game, getting off 63 field goal attempts per contest here at home this season. On the flip side, I do think Binghamton can be along for the ride offensively here. It's certainly worth noting that the oddsmakers are anticipating another reasonably competitive affair with the spread holding steady in single-digits. Stony Brook, while one of the America East's elite teams, ranks 291st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Binghamton averages over 72 points per game the last six times it plays on the road off a conference loss, as is the case here. It should be able to get off plenty of scoring opportunities here against a Stony Brook squad that despite forcing an average of 14 turnovers per game here at home, still gives up 60 field goal attempts per contest on average. Take the over (8*). |
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02-01-22 | Providence v. St. John's OVER 146 | 86-82 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Providence and St. John's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I expected this total to get bet up considerably in the morning hours on Tuesday but that simply hasn't been the case. Noting that the first meeting totalled 156 points earlier this season - with a load of points left on the table - I'm comfortable playing the 'over' in Tuesday's rematch. The Friars are coming off consecutive 'under' results while the Red Storm have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total. That serves to give us some value with the 'over' on Tuesday. Note that St. John's still ranks top-four in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Red Storm will certainly look to run the Friars out of the gym in this one with Providence playing on just one day of rest after successfully avenging an earlier loss against Marquette. In that first matchup between these two teams this season St. John's shot just north of 41% from the field, including 5-of-22 from beyond the arc. It also missed nine of 17 free throw attempts. The Friars hung 83 points on the board despite shooting just 3-of-16 from three-point range. Note that the Red Storm are allowing an average of nine made threes per game here at home this season, not to mention the fact they send opponents to the free throw line an average of 20 times per contest (Providence gets to the charity stripe 21 times per game and shoots better than 73% from there). Take the over (9*). |
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01-31-22 | New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 47-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and San Diego State at 10 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most in this Mountain West matchup on Monday night as San Diego State looks to bounce back from a disappointing lopsided loss at Utah State. That game was played last Wednesday night so the Aztecs have had five days to chew on it and I expect them to come out with plenty of fire as a result on Monday. Whether that fire leads to offensive success is up for debate but I'm confident the Aztecs will put their best foot forward defensively. Note that off its four previous losses this season, San Diego State allowed just 63, 47, 56 and 55 points in its next game with the 'under' going a profitable 3-1. The only game that didn't stay 'under' the total still reached just 135 points. Given how well New Mexico has been playing (7-1-1 ATS over its last nine games) I don't expect it to let San Diego State run up the score here. The Lobos are by no means an elite defensive team, but they're a confident bunch right now and I do feel they can handle San Diego State's very manageable pace. Note that the Aztecs average just a shade over 67 points per game at home this season and 70.8 points per game when coming off a loss. The Aztecs did score 80 points on 52% shooting in a win over UNLV in their most recent home game, but they're also just two games removed from an ugly 37-point on 28% shooting performance against Boise State on this same floor. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 with San Diego State priced as a home favorite of between -12.5 and -15 points over the last three seasons with those games totalling an average of just 125.5 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-31-22 | Eastern Washington v. Weber State OVER 156 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Washington and Weber State at 9 pm et on Monday. If Eastern Washington wants to snap out of its two-game mini slide, it's going to have to keep up with one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Weber State on Monday. The Wildcats enter this game as hot as any team in the country shooting the basketball, knocking down 55%, 52%, 50% and 58% of their FG attempts while scoring 95, 92, 85 and 79 points over their last four games. While they 'only' got to 79 in their most recent contest that was only due to the lopsided nature of their win over Sacramento State. I do expect Eastern Washington to pose more of a challenge here. The Eagles opened their current road trip with an 89-point explosion at Idaho State but then got bogged down in a pair of games against Montana State and Montana. After shooting sub-39% in consecutive contests I look for the Eagles to get back on track here. They can run with the best of them, ranking 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo. Take the over (9*). |
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01-30-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 210 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. This first meeting between these two teams totalled just 176 points back in mid-November and I believe Sunday's posted total will prove too high as well. This is the start of a grueling week for the Cavs as they'll play five games between now and next Sunday. I can certainly see them 'managing' this one knowing they'll be back on the floor at home against the Pelicans tomorrow night. Detroit checks in having scored over 100 points in five straight games, although it just barely got over that number in three of those games. That marks a season-long streak of the sort for Detroit, one that should be in jeopardy against the Cavs on Sunday. Note that Cleveland has held its last three opponents to just 99, 93 and 87 points and comes into this game well-rested having not played since Wednesday, when it rolled to a 115-99 win over the Bucks at home. While the Pistons are by no means a top-flight defensive team, they have managed to hold opponents to 4.1 points per game below their season average here at home. Like the Cavs, they're rested, playing just their second game in the last five days. Take the under (10*). |
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01-29-22 | Wizards v. Grizzlies UNDER 228.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I look for the Grizzlies to 'manage' this game after securing a double-digit win over the Jazz on this same floor last night and before heading out on a three-game road trip beginning on Monday night in Philadelphia. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of four games in a row including that stunning setback at home against the Clippers after leading by 30+ on Tuesday. The Wiz couldn't buy a basket when they needed it most in the fourth quarter in that one and are just one game removed from an ugly 87-point effort against the Celtics. Keep in mind, Washington averages 2.7 points below its season scoring average on the road, where its games have totalled an average of just 214.6 points. Here, we'll note that the Grizzlies have posted a 1-13 o/u record when seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 213.0 points. That's worth noting given the most recent meeting between these two teams went the way of the Wizards by a 115-87 score in Washington back in early November with that contest easily staying 'under' the 220.5-point total. We're dealing with an even higher number here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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01-29-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Stetson OVER 139.5 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Atlantic Sun Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Kentucky and Stetson at 4 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of upside playing this one 'over' the total with the number sitting in the high-130's. We'll certainly see a contrast in styles here as Eastern Kentucky ranks top-25 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Stetson sits well north of 300th in that category. With that being said, Stetson is just two games removed from a 91-point performance in a narrow two-point home loss against Florida-Gulf Coast. There's reason to believe we'll see Stetson push the pace a little more than usual here after it was held to just 47 points on 28% shooting last time out against Bellarmine. Despite its break-neck place, Eastern Kentucky hasn't posted an 'over' result since the first week of December. Keep in mind, it has regularly seen totals posted in the 150's and 160's. We're dealing with a much lower total here. Stetson has high hopes this season after appearing in the CBI Tournament last April and returning a wealth of talent. Rob Perry being sidelined hasn't helped its cause but in theory there is plenty of depth - particularly at the guard position - to make up for his absence. Regardless, I believe the Hatters will be afforded plenty of good looks against a 'defense-optional' Eastern Kentucky squad here as both teams do their part in helping this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-22 | Wolves v. Warriors OVER 228.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'm high on both of these teams entering this nationally-televised matchup on Thursday night. While we're dealing with a fairly high total at first glance, I believe it will prove too low. The T'Wolves have now given up over 100 points in each of their last 18 road games. They're giving up just shy of 115 points per game away from home this season. Golden State is coming off its second highest-scoring performance of the season, putting up 130 points in a rout of the Mavs two nights ago. Klay Thompson appears to be getting more comfortable with each passing game (he had actually sat the previous two games before Tuesday's blowout win). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 64-29 the last 93 times the Warriors played at home seeking revenge for a 20+ point loss, as is the case here after they suffered a 119-99 setback in Minnesota less than two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Warriors elected to rest a number of their starters in that game at the tail-end of a four-game road trip. The T'Wolves are playing as well offensively as any team in the league right now, having scored 108 points or more in nine straight games. They're just one game removed from a 136-point outburst against Brooklyn. There's little reason for them to shy away from the challenge at hand here as the T'Wolves have scored 108, 111, 126, 110 and 119 points in five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2021. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 in Minnesota's last 33 games when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 235.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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01-27-22 | California v. UCLA UNDER 130 | Top | 57-81 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and UCLA at 9 pm et on Thursday. Cal is coming off a dreadful performance against Arizona in which it was ripped for 96 points. That could be considered an outlier, however, as the Bears had only allowed more than 65 points once in five previous Pac-12 contests this season. UCLA came up with a stunning 16-point upset win over Arizona two nights ago which obviously sets it up in a bit of a letdown spot here. The Bruins are locked in defensively right now, allowing 65, 58, 65 and 59 points over their last four contests. Since the start of 2020, they've held Cal to 40, 56, 57 and 52 points with the latter coming in a 60-52 victory earlier this month. With both teams adept at taking care of the basketball, I look for much of this one to be played in the half-court, much like we saw in the first meeting between these two squads this season. Take the under (10*). |
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01-27-22 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska OVER 145 | Top | 73-65 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Wisconsin and Nebraska at 5 pm et on Thursday. I don't believe for a second that Nebraska's defense can contain Wisconsin's offense in this game. The Badgers, more often known for their patient, methodical offense have shifted into another gear this season. They check in averaging well north of 70 points per game and come into this game in a foul mood after dropping an 86-74 decision against Michigan State last time out. This is an ideal bounce-back spot as the Cornhuskers don't play a lick of defense, allowing 87, 79, 93, 81, 92 and 78 points over their last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 5-1 clip along the way. Desperate for a victory off six consecutive losses, I'm confident we'll see Nebraska throw everything it has at the Badgers defense in this one. We've certainly seen cracks in that Badger defense as they've given up a very un-Wisconsin-like 43.9% shooting on the season. The Huskers should find their opportunities, noting that they rank 21st in the nation in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Last year's two meetings between these two teams were low-scoring. Different story here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-26-22 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 223.5 | Top | 105-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We just saw these two teams combine to score 224 points in Phoenix two nights ago. The Jazz were undermanned but battled hard in a tight six-point loss. While they're getting healthier, they're still missing a big part of their offense in the form of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. The Suns check in having allowed over 100 points in five straight games, matching their longest such streak of the season. Note that the only other time that happened, they allowed just 94 points in a blowout win in Memphis in their next game - a contest that easily stayed 'under' the total, reaching just 213 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 31-17 when the Suns play on the road with a total of between 220 and 229.5 points over the last three seasons. In fact, the 'under' is 14-8 in all Suns road games this season. The Jazz are just one game removed from allowing only 94 points in a game against the Warriors that totalled just 186 points in San Francisco. Utah doesn't have the weapons to prevail in a track meet against the Suns right now and it knows it. Note that the last meeting between these two teams in Utah totalled only 201 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall OVER 145.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
CBB Big East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Marquette and Seton Hall at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on January 15th. That game totalled 145 points, staying comfortably below the closing total of 152.5 points. Now that both teams come in riding three-game 'under' streaks, I believe this total has swung too far in the other direction. Note that in that previous meeting Seton Hall scored 72 points despite turning the basketball over a whopping 20 times. The Pirates average only 12 turnovers per game (despite ranking 53rd in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom). I expect a far more efficient offensive performance from Seton Hall here, especially after shooting sub-40% from the field in consecutive games. As for Marquette, it ranks 42nd in the country in adjusted tempo and is playing its best basketball of the season, reeling off six straight wins both SU and ATS. The Golden Eagles scored 75 points in a win over Xavier last time out but that's really only scratching the surface offensively as they started their current win streak by scoring 88, 92 and 87 points in consecutive games. After holding their last two opponents under 39% shooting, I look for some regression from the Golden Eagles defense here, noting that they've allowed 89 points at Wisconsin and 80 points at Xavier earlier this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-22 | Pacers v. Pelicans OVER 215.5 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Monday. There are a number of key contributors missing due to injury on both sides but I still think this one finds its way 'over' the reasonable total on Monday. Let's keep in mind, the Pacers have scored 133, 111, 121 and 103 points in splitting the first four games on their current road trip. The problem for Indiana is it has thrown defense out the window for an extended period of time, allowing over 100 points in 19 consecutive games. As for the Pelicans, they've put up over 100 points in 15 of their last 16 games. The only occasion where they didn't reach the century mark was on the road in a three-in-four situation in Boston last Monday (in a sleepy matinee affair). While the 'under' has gone 11-9-1 in Pelicans home games this season, those contests have totalled an average of 217.8 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 41-26 with the Pacers coming off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 225.6 points and 23-10 with the Pelicans playing at home off a win over the last three seasons, with that situation resulting in an average of 235.6 total points. Take the over (9*). |
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01-24-22 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 124.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up as a prime bounce-back spot for both defenses. Louisville just gave up 82 points on a ridiculous 63% shooting in a loss to Notre Dame on Saturday, marking its fourth loss in its last five games. There's no reason to expect a repeat performance here as the Cardinals look to contain a Virginia team that hasn't sniffed 70 points over its last five games, topping out at 66 points and scoring sub-60 in three of those contests. For its part, Virginia allowed N.C. State to score 77 points on 60% shooting in a loss on Saturday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Cavaliers last two games. That situation has come up three times previously this season, and on each occasion the 'under' has cashed in the next game. We know the Hoos' can play defense. Here at home they're allowing just 57.5 points per game on 40.6% shooting. The Cardinals don't figure to be able to expose any sort of weaknesses, noting that they average right around three points below their season scoring average on the road, where they shoot just a shade over 40% from the field. The last time these two teams met on this floor they combined to score just 111 points. Expect more of the same on Monday. Take the under (10*). |
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01-23-22 | 76ers v. Spurs OVER 220 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and San Antonio at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the 76ers and Spurs on Sunday evening as both teams look to bounce back from disappointing losses last time out. Philadelphia blew a big lead in a 102-101 home loss to the Clippers on Friday. The Sixers should know better than to take their foot off the gas but that's essentially what happened in that contest. While they're generally a solid defensive team, they've allowed over 100 points in three straight games and figure to struggle to contain a Spurs offense that has put up over the century mark in six straight games and averages just shy of 114 points per contest at home this season. To say that San Antonio has had its hands full with the Sixers offense in recent meetings would be an understatement. It has allowed 122, 115, 132, 134, 113 and 119 points in the last six matchups in this series going back to the start of 2019. Interestingly, the Spurs have been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing opponents to score 112.8 points per game on 46.5% shooting. The 'over' has gone 10-2 with San Antonio in the role of home underdog this season with that spot producing an average total of 226.4 points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-19-22 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | Top | 116-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. This total has been dropping in our favor, not surprisingly, as bettors realize the Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday night. I'm expecting nothing short of a track meet in Salt Lake City. The Rockets are playing better basketball than they had been, recording two wins in their last three games, scoring 128, 114 and 118 points over their last three games. They're as healthy as they've been all season and should come out with an attacking mindset against a suddenly-struggling Jazz squad. Utah has lost five of its last six games and has posted its two lowest-scoring games of the season over its last three contests. Even without Mitchell, this is a fine 'get right' spot for the Jazz, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. The Rockets are one of the league's worst defensive teams and check in having allowed 130, 141, 111, 124, 126 and 112 points over their last six games. To say the 'over' has been a solid bet in Rockets games would be a massive understatement as they've posted a 21-7 o/u record over their last 28 games. While Utah carries a reputation of being a solid defensive team, it has actually given up over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. The 'over' is 20-9-1 in the Jazz's last 30 contests. Finally, I'll point out that the last meeting between these two teams here in Utah took place last May and totalled a whopping 240 points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 223.5 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. After being held down offensively (relatively speaking) in consecutive games against top-level defensive teams in the Bucks and 76ers, I look for the Hornets to bust out in this one (noting that they're coming off consecutive sub-110-point scoring performances for the first time since mid-December). Charlotte has scored 120 and 106 points in the first two meetings in this series this season. Note that on the latter occasion, the Hornets shot a miserable 12-of-41 from three-point range. Perhaps they could be excused for that performance as they were playing their third game in five nights on the road. The Magic aren't exactly shooting the lights out right now but they are expected to get an offensive boost with the likely return of Jalen Suggs on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 48-30 when the Magic seek revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons and Charlotte just happens to be one of the most forgiving defensive teams in the league, giving up an average of 115.5 points per game. The last time these two teams squared off here in Charlotte, they combined to score 234 points last May. There's little reason to expect the Hornets to 'manage' this game and perhaps hold a little something back as they will have the entire weekend off before heading to New York for a date with the Knicks on Monday. Charlotte averages 118.3 points per game when playing before two or more days off this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-22 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 210 | 99-111 | Push | 0 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Perhaps we're seeing a bit of an overreaction in the betting markets here after the 76ers were held to just 98 points in a losing effort at home against the Hornets two nights ago, combined with the fact that the 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this series. Keep in mind, each of those three matchups were played in Boston. The last time these two teams met in Philadelphia they combined to score 232 points last January. Interestingly, the 'over' is 29-17 the last 46 times the Celtics have been in the role of underdog with that situation producing an average total of 226.7 points. Despite that poor offensive showing against the Hornets, the 76ers have still managed to score 110 points or more in seven of their last eight contests. Celtics road games have been considerably higher scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of 216.3 points. Take the over (9*). |
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01-13-22 | Thunder v. Nets UNDER 219.5 | 130-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. This total has been rising since opening, not a big surprise with the Nets having scored 138 points in a win in Chicago last night while Oklahoma City comes off a season-high 118-point effort in Washington two nights ago. Keep in mind, we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results from the Thunder since December 26th and 28th while the Nets haven't posted back-to-back 'over' results since December 25th and 27th. Here, I'll also note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Thunder seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent this season, which is the case here after the Nets took the first meeting this season 120-96 in Oklahoma City back in November. That situation has produced a ridiculously-low average total (by today's NBA standards) of just 195.0 points. The 'under' is also 34-20 with the Nets playing at home off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 218.4 points in that spot. Take the under (8*). |
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01-12-22 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 231.5 | Top | 116-125 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and the second in a little over a week. Last week's game went the Lakers way by a 122-114 score in Los Angeles. Naturally, that high-scoring 'over' result is leading to a slightly higher posted total for this one, but I believe it's the wrong move. While the Lakers have not surprisingly been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, they've also been a stronger defensive team - at least from a points per game allowed perspective. The 'under' checks in a profitable 9-7 in their 16 road contests to date, including a matchup between these same two teams here in Sacramento back in November that totalled just 209 points. The Kings have seen the 'under' cash at a 15-9 clip at home this season and enter this game playing a rather uneven brand of offensive basketball, having scored 102, 111, 88 and 108 points over their last four games with the 'under' cashing in three of those contests. The Lakers have of course seen the 'over' cash in three consecutive high-scoring affairs but I do think we have a 'catalyst for change' at play here as they hit the road, and do so off a disappointing loss against the Grizzlies on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 24-12 in the Lakers last 36 road games when coming off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 215.3 points. The 'under' is a perfect 9-0 in the Kings last nine games when coming off a game in which they covered the spread but failed to win outright, which is the situation here off Monday's narrow home loss to the Cavs. Take the under (10*). |
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01-11-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 216.5 | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. One of my favorite situations is in play on Tuesday night in Washington, noting that the last 29 times the Wizards have played at home off an 'under' result, we've seen an average total of 234.1 points scored. In fact, we haven't seen the Wiz post consecutive 'under' results since November 20th and 22nd. The Thunder have been held to 97 points or less in five of their last six games but I see this as a solid 'get right' opportunity for them offensively, especially after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to just eight points on a woeful 2-of-14 shooting against Denver last time out. The best players tend to bounce back and I expect that from SGA here. Note that despite their recent stretch, the Thunder do average 107.0 points and an average total of 218.1 total points when coming off a game in which they were held to 100 points or less, as is the case here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 200 points. That helps to keep this total in check, noting that last year's two meetings saw closing totals of 233.5 and 232.5 in games that reached 226 and 238 total points. Take the over (9*). |
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01-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 226 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers defense has been dreadful over the course of their current 6-2 'over' run but they have an opportunity to perhaps catch their breath here as the Grizzlies stay in L.A. after brushing aside the Clippers yeterday afternoon and play their fifth game in the last seven nights, having gone a perfect 4-0 in their previous four, part of an eight-game winning streak. Not only are the Grizzlies likely road weary (their last four games have been played in four different cities), they're also dealing with some key injuries and absences. They recently welcomed Dillon Brooks back to the lineup but he was forced to leave yesterday's game with an ankle injury. Ja Morant sat out yesterday's game with a thigh injury but could return tonight. Regardless, it's worth noting that the Grizzlies have held 20 of their last 22 opponents to 108 points or less. The two teams that scored more than that were the Suns and Warriors and even in those games the Grizzlies only allowed 113 points. After the first meeting between these two teams totalled 239 points back in October, their two matchups in December reached identical totals of 203 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games following six or more consecutive victories while the 'under' is 26-9 in the Lakers last 35 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Ohio State at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect points to come at a premium in this Big Ten matchup with Northwestern coming off consecutive home losses in-conference and Ohio State fresh off a 16-point dismantling at the hands of Indiana on the road. Note that the Buckeyes have turned in two of their best defensive efforts of the season when coming off their two previous losses this season, holding Duke to 38.5% shooting following a loss to Florida and Seton Hall to 38.1% shooting after a loss against Xavier. Note that Ohio State checks in 49th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Northwestern has given up 70+ points in consecutive games for the first time this season but still ranks top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I don't expect Ohio State to run away and hide in this one, noting that the Buckeyes sit 249th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While Northwestern generally likes to push the pace a little bit, I'm not sure it will be afforded the opportunity to do so against the Buckeyes. The Wildcats have been able to force the tempo in large part thanks to facing the nation's 265th toughest schedule. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wildcats have played on the road following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 126.3 points. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 89-60 with the Buckeyes playing at home coming off an ATS loss, which is also the situation here, producing an average total of 133.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-07-22 | Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 216 | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Portland at 10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Cavs most recent game against the Grizzlies on Wednesday (most actually won as the total shifted downward after posting) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Cleveland heads on the road to face Portland on Friday. The Blazers couldn't have performed much better offensively two nights ago against Miami but still fell by a 115-109 score (we won with the Heat in that game). In that contest, the Blazers knocked down 15 three-pointers and made a whopping 36 trips to the free throw line - yet still scored 'only' 109 points. I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Blazers top two scoring options, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum of course remain sidelined. Defensively, the Blazers have been a wreck. The good news here is, they catch the Cavs a little out of sorts offensively, having scored 104, 93, 118, 108 and 106 points over their last five games. Going all the way back to mid-November, their last 10 road games have totalled 208, 210, 196, 217, 216, 229, 209, 212, 212 and 203 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 211 total points back in November and that was with the two teams at full strength. Take the under (9*). |
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01-06-22 | Pistons v. Grizzlies UNDER 220 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We just missed with the 'over' in the Grizzlies most recent game in Cleveland two nights ago (most actually cashed in that game as the total shifted throughout the day). Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the spot sets up perfectly to do so on Thursday night. I came close to playing the 'under' in the Pistons game in Charlotte last night but wisely laid off as that game sailed 'over' the number. The Pistons had actually been playing well defensively going into that contest but ran into a buzzsaw against a Hornets squad coming off a tough loss in Washington. Here, I think we can anticipate the Grizzlies 'managing' this game with a two-game trip to Los Angeles on deck (and playing their third game in four nights with a number of key contributors likely still sidelined due to illness/injury). The Pistons have scored 117, 115 and 111 points over their last three games although that first result was aided by overtime. They still average just over 101 points per game on the road this season, however, and put up only 95 points in their lone visit to Memphis last season. Note that the 'under' is 11-1 in the Pistons last 12 games after giving up 130+ points, as is the case here while the 'under' checks in a perfect 8-0 in the Grizzlies last eight home games following four or more consecutive victories. Take the under (9*). |
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01-04-22 | Grizzlies v. Cavs OVER 218 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. With the Grizzlies riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 127, 114, 104, 118 and 118 points over that stretch it's going to take quite an effort to knock them off course. The Cavs check in having allowed 108, 110, 121 and 104 points over their last four contests so Memphis should have plenty of runway to keep rolling on Tuesday. With that being said, Cleveland has also scored 118 and 108 points in its last two games and as a short home favorite, isn't likely to back down from the challenge here. Note that the 'over' is 10-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road off a double-digit road win over the last two seasons, as is the case here following last night's rout of the Nets. That situation has produced an average total of a whopping 242.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 28-15 with the Cavs playing at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 220.0 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 253 points in Memphis back in October. Take the over (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Magic v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Boston at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Keeping in mind the Magic are just two games removed from their lowest scoring performance of the entire season while the Celtics posted their lowest point total of the season just two games back, not to mention the fact that these two teams combined to score only 171 points in their first meeting this season, I believe this total will prove too high. The Celtics caught the Suns flat-footed in a matinee affair in Boston on Friday, putting up 120 points in a double-digit win. They're still averaging just 107.5 points per game at home this season. The Magic, meanwhile, check in averaging just a shade over 103 points per contest on the road. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-5 with the Celtics playing in the role of favorite this season with that situation producing an average total of just 105.6 points. Take the under (9*). |
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01-02-22 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 139.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Northwestern at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams have been filling up boxscores in the early going this season with Michigan State checking in with an 11-2 record and Northwestern sitting at 8-2. With both teams averaging just shy of 80 points per game I can understand why we're looking at a total in the high-130s on Sunday. I believe it will prove too high, however. This will be the toughest test either team has faced in the last month. I don't think we're going to see Michigan allow Northwestern to get out and push the pace as much as it would like in this home matchup. I do, however, believe that the Wildcats will be able to run their offense, noting that they're turning the ball over only nine times per game while Michigan State has forced just 11 turnovers per contest. While both teams have shot well, neither has put up over-the-top numbers in terms of three-pointers of free throws made per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-6 the last 23 times the Spartans have played on the road after scoring 75+ points in four straight games, as is the case here. Northwestern has had a tendency to struggle in these January Big Ten home games, averaging just 62 points per game while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven home tilts in the first month of the year. Take the under (10*). |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 217.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Three of the Bulls four highest scoring totals of the season have come in their last five games and they're fresh off a thrilling 108-106 win in Indiana yesterday. The fact that both the Bulls and Wizards are coming off 'under' results helps keep Saturday's total in a very reasonable range. Consider that these two teams are just one meeting removed from a game that totalled 263 points. Washington is just three games removed from its second-highest scoring total of the season. While it did allow just 93 points in its most recent game that came against an undermanned Cavs squad due to Covid protocols. Prior to that, the Wiz had given up 117, 117 and 119 points over their last three games. Here, we'll note that the last 28 times the Wiz have played at home off an 'under' result, they have seen an average total of 234.0 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I'm not anticipating a track meet between the undermanned Clippers and the Raptors on Friday night. Note that Toronto will have most of its players back for this game after dealing with Covid protocols and that means plenty of shuffling with its rotation for head coach Nick Nurse. The Raps have had some terrific offensive outbursts lately but still average just north of 104 points per game at home this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers have allowed two of their three lowest point totals of the season over their last four games and they'll need to continue to play that style with Paul George and a host of other key contributors sidelined. The Clips average right around 103 points per game on the road this season with those contests averaging 207.1 total points. Los Angeles has shot 40.7% or worse in consecutive games while Toronto checks in having shot 43.7% or worse over its last two contests. Take the under (8*). |
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12-28-21 | Northwestern State v. Baylor UNDER 146 | Top | 68-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern State and Baylor at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Tuesday night. Northwestern State has faced an extremely tough schedule so far this season - the seventh-toughest in the country according to KenPom. It faces another very tough matchup on the road against defending national champion Baylor on Tuesday. I expect it to once again struggle offensively, noting that it checks in averaging just six made three-pointers and 13 free throw attempts per game this season. Baylor meanwhile allows an average of only five made threes per game at home while sending opponents to the free throw line just 13 times per game on average. The question becomes whether Baylor goes off offensively in this one. It scored 94 points in its most recent game against Alcorn State. Prior to that it had scored fewer than 80 points in five of its last six games. Note that the Bears average nine made threes per game and should approach that average here. However, they also average only 10 made free throws per contest. Despite facing a difficult schedule, Northwestern State has managed to force an average of 12 turnovers per game while Baylor has turned it over 10 or more times in six consecutive games heading into this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup on December 17th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. The Jazz are coming off a close call against the undermanned Mavs on Saturday. Three of their six highest point totals allowed this season have come over their last five games. Now they'll have to contend with a Spurs squad that has registered its three highest point totals of the season over its last five contests. Also note, however, that three of San Antonio's four highest point totals given up this season have also come in its last eight games. The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell for Monday's game (back) but he's been in and out of the lineup numerous times over the last couple of seasons so they're accustomed to playing without him. Outside of that, the Jazz and Spurs have remained two of the most unscathed teams when it comes to Covid protocols. Take the over (10*). |
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12-26-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 212 | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Nuggets are just two games removed from their highest-scoring performance of the season but are coming off consecutive subpar showings, putting up only 94 and 107 points in back-to-back losses prior to the Christmas break. Here, I look for them to bounce back against the Paul George-less Clippers. Two of the Clippers six highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last four contests. Paul George is now sidelined indefinitely but the Clips should have Luke Kennard back in the lineup on Sunday. Here, they'll face a Nuggets squad that has consistently been allowing plenty of points, giving up 107 points or more in nine consecutive games. They've given up 115 points or more in three of their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
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12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 228.5 | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 33 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Phoenix at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: There are currently large discrepancies across several books with this total. I would anticipate playing it in the 218-220 range once the numbers settle out. Both of these teams scored exactly 113 points in Thursday's victories. The first two meetings in this series this season totalled just 200 and 214 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 when the Suns face Pacific Division opponents this season with those games totalling an average of only 209.8 points. The 'under' is also 35-16 in the Warriors last 51 road games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are rolling along right now but they're also in a stretch that will see them play a ton of basketball between now and January 8th. Here, they'll be playing their third game in five nights with a big game against the Warriors looming on Christmas Day. From there they'll play three more times before the end of the year before four games in the first eight days of January. Workload management becomes a factor and I think this is a contest where they can post a victory without going full throttle for four quarters - one of the few opportunities they may have to do so in the next couple of weeks. Oklahoma City is in a back-to-back spot off a big win over the Nuggets last night. Note that the Thunder have allowed two of their five lowest point totals of the season over their last two games. The 'under' is 9-5 in their 14 road games this season, largely due to their own awful scoring average of 96.9 points per game. Off three consecutive victories I'm just not sure we're going to see a peak offensive performance from the Thunder as they look ahead to the holiday break (their next game comes on Boxing Day). Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 214 | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Bucks rout of Houston last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as they play the second of back-to-backs in Dallas on Thursday. Both teams are missing a number of key contributors - Dallas in particular. However, we're dealing with a considerably lower total than we would normally see in this matchup as a result (that goes without saying, I know). Note that the Bucks have allowed two of their five highest point totals of the season in their last five games alone. They welcomed back Khris Middleton from injury last night and ultimately put up a whopping 126 points. The Mavs have managed to score over 100 points in five straight games despite missing so many pieces. They scored 114 points in a double-digit win over Minnesota two nights ago with a similar lineup to the one we're likely to see on Thursday. Note, however that Dallas has also given up 107, 111 and 102 points over its last three games and doesn't figure to improve on those numbers as it takes a step up in class against the Bucks (Milwaukee has proven it is a top-flight team even without Giannis). Take the over (8*). |
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12-22-21 | Rockets v. Bucks OVER 224 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll take a flyer on the 'over' in this one even with Christian Wood's status still up in the air due to a nagging knee injury. I believe there's a better chance that he plays than doesn't in this, the first of back-to-back games for the Rockets (I would expect the Rockets to play Wood against an undermanned Bucks team rather than on the second of back-to-backs in Indiana tomorrow). Note that the Rockets have allowed three of their five highest point totals of the season over their last five contests. The good news is, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 103, 116 and 118 points in their last three games. As for the Bucks, they're expected to welcome back Khris Middleton on Wednesday night. You don't get worse offensively by adding a guy like Middleton to the lineup and while the Bucks were awful at that end of the floor last time out (90 points scored against Cleveland) they had put up 114 and 112 points in their previous two games. Note that the Bucks have given up three of their seven highest point totals of the season in their last four games alone. These two teams just met in Houston back on December 10th and combined to score 237 total points. Covid has obviously ravaged the Bucks roster since but I still think we see this one find its way 'over' the total (which has been adjusted downward since that last meeting). Take the over (8*). |
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12-20-21 | Spurs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The 'over' has cashed in three straight games involving the Spurs and we were on board for one of those contests on Saturday night in Utah. I look for that trend to reverse on Monday, however, as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a loss in Sacramento on Sunday. The Spurs are still averaging just north of 105 points per game on the road this season. They'll be up against a Clippers squad that will be in a foul mood after losing consecutive games in Utah and Oklahoma City. The Clips have been a different team at home, however, where they've gone 12-7, allowing just 103.7 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 10-3-1 clip. Note that the most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 198 points right here in Los Angeles back on November 16th. Take the under (8*). |
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12-19-21 | Blazers v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Portland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Thanks to their last meeting totalling just 216 points in Portland just last week we're dealing with a lower posted total in this quick rematch in Memphis. The last two meetings in this series have now stayed 'under' the total. That's worth noting as we haven't seen three consecutive matchups between these two teams go 'under' since way back in 2015. The Blazers finally snapped their losing streak with a 125-116 win over Charlotte last time out (we won with the 'over' in that game). They've scored at least 103 points in four straight games after being held to 94 points or less in three of their previous four contests. The Grizzlies have now given up 103 points or more in three of their last four games after holding five of their previous six opponents to 95 points or less. They're rolling offensively right now, posting two of their six highest point totals of the season in their last three contests. Take the over (9*). |
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