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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-19-22 | Magic v. Hawks -7 | 125-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This is a prime letdown spot for the Magic as they come in 'fat and happy' off a two-game sweep of the Celtics in Boston and now play their second game in as many nights, in Atlanta on Monday. The Hawks are desperately trying to find some consistency, winners of just two of their last seven games overall. The good news is, they're coming off one of their best performances of the season as they defeated Charlotte 125-106 on Friday. On the heels of two days off and having scored 116 or more points in four of their last five games, I look for them to pull away for a convincing win over the upstart Magic on Monday. Take Atlanta (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Nets v. Pistons +7.5 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Nets are rolling right now, already a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on their current road trip and winners of five consecutive games overall. I think this is a tough game to get up for, however, as they head to Detroit to take on the lowly Pistons on Sunday. Detroit will be revenge-minded in this one after dropping all four matchups against the Nets last season. Note that Brooklyn checks in a woeful 2-11 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. The Nets are also just 19-31 ATS after winning four or five of their last six games, as is the case here, over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by just 1.9 points on average in that spot. The Pistons, meanwhile, have gone 39-20 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons. Take Detroit (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Quinnipiac -3.5 v. St. Peter's | 56-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over St. Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these teams have faced difficult schedules with Quinnipiac checking in having gone against the 342nd toughest slate of games according to KenPom and St. Peter's having faced the 357th most difficult. With that being said, Quinnipiac has certainly handled its business a little better, going 9-2 compared to the Peacocks 5-5 mark. The visitors have made good on three more field goals per game compared to the home side, despite getting off one less attempt per contest. From beyond the arc, Quinnipiac has knocked down one more three per game on one less attempt as well. Defensively, these two sides are difficult to compare but Quinnipiac has yielded four more made field goals per game, albeit on 10 additional attempts from the field on average. Take Quinnipiac (8*). |
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12-18-22 | Belmont v. Chattanooga -5 | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chattanooga minus the points over Belmont at 2 pm et on Sunday. The difference in strength of schedule between these two teams this season is not insignificant with Chattanooga having faced the 154th toughest according to KenPom and Belmont checking in having gone against the 234th most difficult. With that in mind, Chattanooga has still managed to post better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on one more field goal per game despite averaging one less attempt compared to Belmont. Chattanooga has also allowed two fewer field goal makes to the opposition despite those foes getting off five more attempts per game compared to Belmont. It's been virtually a wash from beyond the arc, although Chattanooga would appear to have a slight edge defensively in that department as well, yielding just one additional made three per game on five more attempts by comparison. Take Chattanooga (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Grizzlies v. Thunder +9 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the down-trodden Thunder here as they look to snap their five-game losing streak (not to mention get back at the Grizzlies after dropping both previous meetings this season) on Saturday nigiht in Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies are of course red hot off seven consecutive wins both SU and ATS. It's worth noting however that they've only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.6 points when playing on the road off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons (13-game sample size). Teh Thunder are 27-15 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons and 17-6 ATS over the same stretch when coming off four or more losses in a row, outscored by only 3.1 points on average in that latter situation. Note that last season, the Thunder went 2-1 ATS against the Grizzlies despite getting drilled by a ridiculous 73 points in their first matchup of the season. Memphis has won only two of 14 road games by double-digit margins this season and it needed to get off nine more field goal attempts against Sacramento and eight more against Detroit to do so. It's unlikely it will benefit from that sort of shot disparity here as it checks in having allowed 90+ field goal attempts to each of its last four opponents while Oklahoma City has limited three of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Grambling State +18 v. Virginia Tech | 48-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Grambling plus the points over Virginia Tech at 4 pm et on Saturday. I don't think this will be the beatdown most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Blacksburg. Grambling State has actually faced the slightly tougher schedule compared to ACC opponent Virginia Tech this season (203rd toughest compared to 206th according to KenPom). In spite of that, Grambling's numbers hold up reasonably well here. Virginia Tech has been the better team offensively, but from a defensive standpoint, the Hokies have allowed five more field goal attempts per game with the opposition making good on all five of those in comparison to Grambling. Grambling has given up the same number of made three-pointers per contest as Virginia Tech, but on three additional attempts from beyond the arc per game. While Grambling has knocked down three fewer threes itself per game, that's on eight fewer attempts compared to the Hokies. Take Grambling (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Miami-OH v. Bellarmine -6.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bellarmine minus the points over Miami-Ohio at 4 pm et on Saturday. Bellarmine has quietly faced the fourth toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. While Miami-Ohio hasn't exactly faced a cupcake-laden sked, it ranks 178th in the country in that department. In spite of that, Bellarmine has arguably posted the better numbers at both ends of the floor. It has made good on just one less field goal per game compared to Miami-Ohio, despite getting off an average of six fewer attempts per contest. It has also knocked down an identical nine three-pointers per game despite hoisting up two fewer attempts from beyond the arc. Defensively, Miami-Ohio yields seven more made field goals per contest (on nine additional attempts). Bellarmine allows one less made three-pointer per game despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts from outside. You get the idea. Take Bellarmine (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Sam Houston State -3.5 v. Texas State | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sam Houston State minus the points over Texas State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Sam Houston State has quietly faced the 31st toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Texas State checks in having faced the 253rd most difficult schedule. In spite of that, SHSU has posted better numbers at both ends of the floor. SHSU has made good on six more field goals per game on just nine additional attempts per contest compared to Texas State. Defensively, the visitors have allowed five fewer made field goals per game on only two fewer attempts per contest. It's a similar story from beyond the arc with SHSU knocking down three more three-pointers per game on seven additional attempts and holding the opposition to just one more made three per contest on six additional attempts from outside. Take Sam Houston State (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Tenn-Martin +6 v. Bowling Green | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee-Martin plus the points over Bowling Green at 2 pm et on Saturday. There's little separating these two teams in terms of strength of schedule to this point with Tennessee-Martin checking in having faced the 257th toughest schedule according to KenPom and Bowling Green having gone against the 283rd most difficult slate of games. With the former coming in on an extended ATS slide I believe the pendulum has swung far enough to back it in this spot. Note that Tennessee-Martin knocks down four more field goals per game compared to Bowling Green this season, on only one additional attempt on average. It also makes good on two more three-pointers per contest one one more three-point attempt per game compared to BGSU. It's a similar story defensively, with both sides allowing 27 made field goals per game but Tennessee-Martin doing so on four more attempts per contest allowed. I expect this one to go down to the wire and will grab all the points I can get with the visitors. Take Tennessee-Martin (8*). |
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12-17-22 | Providence v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Providence at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the short number with Seton Hall here as it looks to best Providence in a matchup of two teams riding identical three-game winning streaks. Only one game separates these two teams this season with Providence checking in with the slightly better overall record. All records aren't created equal, however, at least not in college basketball. Providence has faced the 349th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Seton Hall checks in having gone against the 61st most difficult schedule. Providence does own the better offensive numbers this season but Seton Hall can hold its own, and then some, defensively having allowed four fewer made field goals per game (on four fewer attempts per contest on average) compared to the Friars. Opponents are knocking down two fewer three-pointers per contest against Seton Hall despite hoisting up an identical 19 three-point attempts per game compared to Providence. I mentioned that the Friars have been superior offensively but not necessarily from beyond the arc, where both teams check in having made good on 6-of-19 threes per game. Take Seton Hall (8*). |
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12-16-22 | Austin Peay v. Murray State -6.5 | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Murray State minus the points over Austin Peay at 8 pm et on Friday. It hasn't been a banner start to the season for Murray State and that was clear in its most recent game as it struggled to get past Chicago State as a double-digit favorite, ultimately winning that game by a single point. I do like the way the matchup favors the Racers on Friday, however, as they host Austin Peay. While the latter has faced the 205th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, Murray State has faced the 153rd most difficult. That's notable as the Racers have advantages at both ends of the floor in spite of it. Murray State has gotten off one less field goal attempt per game this season but has actually made good on one additional shot per contest compared to Austin Peay. At the defensive end of the floor it's really no contest as Murray State has allowed one more made field goal per game in comparison with Austin Peay, but on 10 more attempts per contest. In a similar vein, Murray State's opponents have knocked down one more three-point attempt per game compared to Austin Peay, but on seven additional attempts on average. We'll confidently lay the points with a Racers squad that took both meetings last season by double-digit margins. Take Murray State (8*). |
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12-15-22 | Cal-Irvine +2 v. Santa Clara | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Santa Clara at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Anteaters of Cal-Irvine have faced the 58th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom (Santa Clara checks in at 157th) yet have all but matched the Broncos numbers to date. In fact, UC-Irvine averages four more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to Santa Clara. It also knocks down an identical eight three-pointers per contest despite getting off six fewer attempts per game from beyond the arc. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor. Santa Clara gives up seven more field goal attempts per game compared to UC-Irvine, with opponents making good on five of those extra seven shots. On four more three-point attempts yielded per game, the Broncos allow a per game average of three additional makes from beyond the arc. Add in the fact that UC-Irvine has seen its opponents knock down a likely unsustainable 71% of their free throw attempts, and I like the Anteaters chances of staging a minor upset here. Take Cal-Irvine (8*). |
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12-15-22 | Pelicans -1 v. Jazz | 129-132 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. Utah took the front half of this two-game set in Salt Lake City two nights ago but I look for the Pelicans to answer back on Thursday. Utah has actually taken both meetings in this series so far this season. However, it's worth noting that neither team has managed to pull off a three-game winning streak in the series over the last 11 meetings going back to 2020. New Orleans checks in averaging the same number of made field goals per game as Utah this season, but on one fewer attempt per contest. It knocks down four fewer three-pointers per game but that's on nine fewer attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Pelicans give up two fewer made field goals per contest, on two fewer attempts. Utah is giving up three fewer made threes per game - but again, that's on seven fewer attempts from beyond the arc. I'll bite with the Pelicans here. Take New Orleans (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Bowling Green v. Norfolk State -4.5 | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Norfolk State minus the points over Bowling Green at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Norfolk State as it looks to pick up a second victory over Bowling Green in as many years following last year's 90-84 road triumph. According to KenPom, Norfolk State has faced the 19th toughest schedule in the nation this season. Bowling Green on the other hand checks in having gone against the 297th toughest. In spite of that, the Falcons have made good on two fewer field goals per game compared to Norfolk State, on six more attempts. It's a similar story at the defensive end of the floor where Bowling Green has allowed three more made field goals on only one additional attempt compared to Norfolk State. The Falcons have recorded two of their three highest-scoring games of the season over their last two contests and perhaps that is holding plenty of water with this line. I simply feel that Norfolk State is the superior team at both ends of the floor and will once again frustrate Bowling Green after keeping the Falcons on the perimeter for much of last year's contest between the two teams (BGSU hoisted up 40 three-point attempts, making only 12 in that game). Take Norfolk State (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Stetson +15 v. College of Charleston | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stetson plus the points over Charleston at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I realize that this is a 'revenge game' for Charleston after it went on the road and lost by eight points as a 5.5-point favorite against Stetson in last year's meeting between the two teams. I also realize that Charleston is off to a terrific 10-1 start to the season while Stetson checks in at 5-3. Still, I'll happily grab the generous helping of points with the underdog side here as I like the way it matches up. Note that Stetson has quietly faced the 72nd toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. By contrast, Charleston checks in having gone against the 107th most difficult schedule. With that said, Stetson has made good on one more field goal per game (one one less attempt) compared to Charleston while also allowing two fewer made field goals on just one less attempt. Stetson has also knocked down 10 three-pointers per game - an identical average to that of Charleston, however Stetson has done it on three fewer attempts per contest. I just don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as is seemingly being indicated by the lofty pointspread. Take Stetson (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Queens NC +3.5 v. East Tennessee State | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Queens plus the points over East Tennessee State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Noting that East Tennessee State hasn't really faced anyone of substance this season (345th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom) and still limps into this contest having lost five of its last seven games SU and all six from an ATS perspective in lined contests over that stretch, I'm not sure it has any business laying points here. Queens has done nothing but impress, going 8-2 SU overall and 6-1 ATS in lined games this season. It checks in having knocked down two more field goals per game compared to East Tennessee State, while getting off only one additional attempt per contest. It also allows only two more made field goals per game despite yielding nine more attempts than ETSU. It goes on from there - Queens makes good on nine three-pointers per game compared to six for ETSU, with the former only attempting four additional shots from beyond the arc. You get the idea. We'll grab the points here. Take Queens-Charlotte (8*). |
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12-14-22 | Coastal Carolina +4.5 v. South Dakota | 87-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Dakota at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take a flyer on Coastal Carolina here in this rematch of a meeting on November 26th - the Chanticleers won that game by seven points as a four-point home favorite. I've yet to see anything indicating that South Dakota is worthy of the 'favorite' tag here. Yes, South Dakota has faced the more difficult schedule this season but it has also gone a woeful 2-7 ATS in lined contests. Note that Coastal Carolina is getting off five more field goal attempts per game, and has made good on all five, averaging 29 made field goals per contest compared to South Dakota's 24. CCU has also held opponents to just 24 made field goals per game, that's three fewer than South Dakota has given up, despite CCU yielding three more FG attempts per contest. South Dakota does have a slight edge in terms of three-point shooting, but CCU has defended the perimeter reasonably well, allowing just eight makes on 25 attempts per game (South Dakota allows the same number of made threes on two fewer attempts). Take Coastal Carolina (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Celtics -3.5 v. Lakers | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Celtics here after they suffered their second straight loss (only their second losing streak of the season) on this same floor against the Clippers last night. Note that Boston scored only 93 points in that defeat, putting it in an excellent situation here given it has gone 11-2 ATS after scoring 95 points or less in its previous contest over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points on average in that spot. The Celtics are also 13-4 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12.6 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Lakers are off a win and cover in Detroit at the tail-end of a long road trip and are just 16-29 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 3.9 points on average along the way. Worse still, they're 31-47 ATS as an underdog over that stretch, outscored by an average margin of 7.4 points in those contests. Take Boston (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Memphis +7 v. Alabama | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Alabama at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is being indicated by the pointspread. Alabama has faced the 20th toughest schedule in the nation according to KenPom but Memphis isn't far behind at 40th. The Tigers have been ultra-efficient offensively, knocking down one more field goal per game compared to Alabama despite attempting four fewer shots per contest. While 'Bama has made good on four more three-pointers per game, that's only because it has gotten off 13 more attempts compared to Memphis. Defensively, I have the two teams as a virtual wash with the Crimson Tide in slightly poorer form having allowed their last four opponents to make good on 26, 38, 26 and 25 field goals. We can anticipate a high-scoring environment here with neither side looking to slow the pace of the opposition in recent games. Given that, I expect the Tigers offensive prowess to keep them in the game from start to finish as they look to upset the revenge-minded Crimson Tide (Memphis took last year's matchup 92-78). Take Memphis (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Suns -5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is undoubtedly a game the Suns have had circled since dropping an embarrassing 122-121 decision at home against the Rockets on December 2nd. That loss seemed to send Phoenix into a bit of a tailspin as it enters Tuesday's contest on a four-game losing streak. I expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way here, even without Devin Booker in the lineup. Note that Phoenix is 14-4 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.0 points on average in that spot. The Suns are an identical 14-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponents as a favorite of seven points or more over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 13.4 points on average in that situation. Perhaps better still, they're 9-1 ATS when following up a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.9 points on average along the way. As for the Rockets, they're 9-21 as a home underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that spot and 8-20 ATS after giving up 105 points or less in their last game over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-13-22 | Green Bay v. St. Thomas -12 | 61-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas minus the points over Green Bay at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I think we have a blowout on our hands in this one as St. Thomas catches Green Bay coming off an outright upset as a 6.5-point underdog against UMKC last time out. While Green Bay has struggled to eclipse 23 made field goals on most nights (that's its high-water mark in that department this season), St. Thomas has been ultra-efficient at the offensive end of the floor. St. Thomas averages seven more made field goals per game compared to Green Bay on just six more attempts. It has also been considerably sharper defensively, yielding two fewer made field goals despite the opposition getting off three additional attempts per contest compared to Green Bay. There's no real discrepancy here in terms of strength of schedule as KenPom rates Green Bay as having faced the 229th toughest schedule in the country with St. Thomas checking in at 223rd. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Stonehill +13 v. Boston College | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stonehill plus the points over Boston College at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We'll take a flyer on Stonehill on Tuesday as it looks to make life miserable for the already-cantankerous Boston College Eagles, a team that has lost four consecutive games. Despite the two teams facing a similar strength of schedule to this point this season (Boston College ranks 165th and Stonehill checks in 178th according to KenPom), we've seen them post similar numbers at both ends of the floor. Stonehill has actually knocked down one more field goal per game on two fewer attempts, while allowing three additional made fields goals per contest, but on five extra attempts. Stonehill is getting off four more three-point attempts per game compared to Boston College, and impressively knocking down all four of those extra shot attempts from beyond the arc. While B.C. will obviously be desperate to end its slide, Stonehill should come to play as well off a double-digit loss as a four-point underdog against Rider last time out. I'll grab all the points I can get with a team that has proven it can go on the road and win outright in an underdog role, having done so at Army and at Binghamton (I realize beating an ACC team on the road is a different story but here we're catching a generous helping of points). Take Stonehill (8*). |
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12-13-22 | Longwood -8 v. St Francis NY | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Longwood minus the points over St. Francis-NY at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll bite with Longwood as a road favorite here, noting that it has faced the tougher schedule (marginally according to KenPom) and rates out considerably stronger at both ends of the floor despite the near indentical records the two teams have posted this season. Longwood handled St. Francis-NY by nine points the last time these two teams met back in 2019. The only reason St. Francis was remotely competitive in that game was because it shot just shy of 51% from the field. Here, we'll note that Longwood is averaging six more made field goals per game on only two additional attempts compared to St. Francis this season. At the other end of the floor, Longwood is allowing one less made field goal despite yielding one additional shot attempt per contest. Longwood has also made the most of its opportunities from three-point range, getting off two more shots per game from beyond the arc compared to St. Francis, making good on both of those attempts. Look for Longwood to pull away for the convincing win this afternoon. Take Longwood (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Blazers | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I like the T'Wolves to get some quick revenge against the Blazers on Monday after dropping Saturday's matchup on this floor by a 124-118 score. There's no reason for Minnesota to hang its head as it shot exceptionally well from the field in that contest but quite simply lost the free throw shooting competition (Portland knocked down 25 of 28 FT attempts). The T'Wolves have still held three of their last five opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, which is more than we can say for the Blazers, who have been lit up for 40+ made field goals in 13 of their last 14 contests. Saturday's loss could be chalked up as an anomaly for the T'Wolves as they enter Monday's game an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games against Northwest Division foes, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.3 points along the way. Here, we'll note that Minnesota is 3-1 ATS the previous four times it has sought revenge for an in-season loss against an opponent this season while Portland is 0-3 ATS after shooting 47% or better from the field in four consecutive games, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Take Minnesota (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Creighton -3.5 v. Arizona State | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Arizona State at 9 pm et on Monday. Creighton already had plenty of reason to circle this game on its schedule after Arizona State stunned the Blue Jays 58-57 as a seven-point underdog in last year's matchup between the two teams. Here, we find the Blue Jays riding an unexpected four-game losing streak while the Sun Devils have exceeded expectations by winning nine of their first 10 games. It all leads to a convincing Creighton victory in my opinion. The Sun Devils aren't likely to contain the Blue Jays offense the way they did in last year's matchup, limiting Creighton to just 54 field goal attempts in that previous meeting. Creighton is shooting an average of 29-for-62 this season and should provide Arizona State with a 'shock to its system' after the Sun Devils were favored by five points or more in four of their last five games. Here, we'll note that the Blue Jays are an impressive 47-28 ATS in their last 75 games following consecutive losses, outscoring opponents by 5.7 points on average in that situation. Take Creighton (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Pacers | 87-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat now dropped the cash in four straight games entering Monday's clash with the similarly-slumping Pacers in Indiana. Notably, Miami has lost three of its last four games and it has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS when in that situation on the road over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.3 points. While Miami has held five of its last six opponents to 87 field goal attempts or fewer, Indiana has had no such luck, or interest, in controlling the pace of its opponents, yielding 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four and six of its last nine contests overall. Off an embarrassing home loss as a double-digit favorite against the Spurs on Saturday, we'll call for the revenge-minded Heat (they lost by two points here in Indiana back in early November) to bounce back in a big way here. Take Miami (8*). |
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12-12-22 | Yale -5.5 v. Fairfield | 77-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale minus the points over Fairfield at 7 pm et on Monday. On the heels of its first losing streak this season, Yale will undoubtedly be locked in on its MAAC opponent tonight. There's no shame in the Bulldogs last two losses as they came against Butler and Kentucky, both on the road, and they managed to split those contests from an ATS perspective. Here, they'll face Fairfield riding its first winning streak of the season (two games). Despite facing the tougher schedule (according to KenPom), Yale has made good on nine more field goals (on eight more attempts) per game compared to Fairfield while also limiting opponents to three fewer made field goals (on just one more attempt) per contest this season. The Bulldogs are yielding the same number of made three-pointers (six) per game on two additional attempts. Fairfield has managed to stay competitive largely due to its ability to get to the free throw line (21 attempts per game), however Yale has limited its opponents to just 15 trips to the charity stripe per contest. Off consecutive losses, I think we see a disciplined performance from the Bulldogs here as they stretch out the margin for a comfortable victory. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-09-22 | Knicks v. Hornets +4.5 | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed fading the Knicks two nights ago as they caught a break with Dejounte Murray going down with an injury early for the Hawks in an eventual blowout win. Here, I don't think New York will be so fortunate as it looks for its third consecutive victory. Charlotte rides a three-game losing streak but it isn't playing all that poorly. The Hornets have actually delivered the cash in consecutive games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests. Note also that they'll be seeking revenge for an earlier 134-131 loss in New York back in late October. New York is just 6-6 on the road this season where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points and I simply don't believe it has any business laying points here. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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12-08-22 | Nuggets -1 v. Blazers | 121-120 | Push | 0 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they look to snap a three-game skid and also avenge an earlier blowout loss to the Blazers this season. Denver has clamped down on its last two opponents, yielding just 81 and 72 field goal attempts but came away with nothing to show for it. The Nuggets most recent loss was particularly discouraging as they fell by a single point at home against Dallas in what should have been a terrific bounce-back spot. A lot of bettors got burned with Denver in that game and won't have much interest in backing it again here. Portland has knocked down 41 or 42 field goals in four straight games but has also gotten off 85 or more field goal attempts in each of those contests - a number I'm not convinced it will reach here. On the flip side, we've seen the Blazers relax a bit defensively of late, allowing four of its last six opponents to hoist up 89 or more FG attempts. In that type of environment, I believe the potential is there for the Nuggets to go off offensively in this one. Take Denver (8*). |
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12-08-22 | St. Thomas +7.5 v. Montana State | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Thomas plus the points over Montana State at 9 pm et on Thursday. While Montana State has faced the considerably tougher schedule this season, St. Thomas has had a couple of true step-up games (against Creighton and Utah) as well and I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as the pointspread indicates. St. Thomas averages three more made field goals per contest on the same number as attempts per game as Montana State this season. It has made good on four more three-pointers per game on just four additional attempts. At the other end of the floor, St. Thomas has allowed the same number of made field goals on two additional attempts per game compared to Montana State. Both teams have seen their opponents make good on better than 72% of their free throw attempts, certainly not a sustainable trend. I realize this is fairly rudimentary handicapping but I think it works in this spot and with Montana State coming off consecutive ATS wins, matching its longest such streak of the season, I like the fade of the home side here. Take St. Thomas (8*). |
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12-07-22 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I like the setup for this play on Wednesday as the Hawks come off a disappointing home loss as a six-point favorite against the Thunder last time out while the Knicks check in off an outright underdog win over the Cavs on their home floor on Sunday. That was an easy game for New York to get up for after it got throttled at home just over 24 hours earlier against the Mavericks. I suspect it will be a little tougher for the Knicks here, noting that they're still just 3-6 SU and ATS over their last nine contests. Here, we'll note also that the Knicks are 16-22 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win over the last three seasons while the Hawks are 20-17 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the same stretch. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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12-07-22 | Cornell v. Miami-FL -15.5 | 105-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Wednesday CBB Free play. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Cornell at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm always on the lookout for 'shock to the system' type of situations and that's precisely what we have here as Cornell puts its seven-game winning streak on the line against Miami. The Big Red check in 7-1 on the season but they've faced a cupcake schedule (333rd in the nation in strength of schedule according to KenPom). Cornell has been shooting the lights out with little need to slow things down and make life difficult for opposing offenses. That should come back to bite it here as Miami clamps down defensively while also making the most of its opportunities at the offensive end of the floor. Take Miami. |
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12-06-22 | Yale +6.5 v. Butler | 61-71 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Butler at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel these two teams are mirror images of one another with the potential for the case to be made for Yale to be the slightly superior team at both ends of the floor, yet here we are catching more than a handful of points with the visiting Bulldogs. Yale does come off a win but non-cover against Stony Brook last time out but there's not much to complain about as it had previously a perfect six-for-six covering in line games this season. Butler comes off consecutive games shooting better than 50% from the field but should be held in check by a Yale defense that has allowed an average of just 19 made field goals on 55 attempts this season. By contrast, Butler has yielded seven more made field goals on only four additional attempts per game this season. While I realize Butler has faced the tougher schedule, I'm not convinced the lofty pointspread is warranted here. Additionally, Butler has made good on just shy of 74% of its free throw attempts this season, not a sustainable percentage in my opinion, while also sending its opponents to the line only 11 times per contest, also unsustainable. Take Yale (8*). |
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12-03-22 | Wichita State +7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State took last year's matchup between these two teams by six points in what turned out to be a sloppy affair with both squads shooting worse than 36% from the field. In what projects to be another relatively low-scoring contest, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Shockers is the right decision. Both teams enter this game off a loss and in the case of Kansas State, it was its first defeat of the young season. I'm not convinced the Wildcats are quite as good as their record indicates. Note that Kansas State is allowing just one fewer made field goal per contest compared to Wichita State this season, despite yielding 12 fewer field goal attempts. In a similar vein, the Wildcats are giving up two fewer made threes per game, but that's on 10 fewer three-point attempts from the opposition. Noting that Wichita State's opponents have made good on just shy of 78% of their free throw attempts this season, there's reason to believe we see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. Likewise, Kansas State checks in knocking down better than 79% of its free throw attempts - again, some regression is almost certainly in order in that regard. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as is indicated by the current pointspread, and I don't love the scheduling spot for Kansas State here as it returns home for the first time in over two weeks. Wichita State's lone previous road test went its way as it won by three points as a four-point underdog at Richmond back in mid-November. Take Wichita State (10*). |
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12-03-22 | Magic +11 v. Raptors | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic have dropped the cash in consecutive games since we successfully backed them on Monday in Brooklyn. Here, I do look for them to give the reeling Raptors a run. Toronto is coming off consecutive road defeats in New Orleans and Brooklyn. The Raptors aren't playing with a great deal of pace right now and that makes it difficult to cover lofty pointspreads such as the one we're looking at on Saturday. While Orlando is struggling, it has managed to hold four of its last five opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite getting off only 81 field goal attempts themselves last night, the Magic did manage to knock down 40 of them against a tough opponent in the Cavaliers. Meanwhile, Toronto checks in having made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. Take Orlando (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | 109-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. While the Lakers have gone 3-2 ATS over their last five games, I don't believe you're going to win many games, let alone cover a lot of pointspreads when you're allowing the opposition to get off 100 or more field goal attempts on a regular basis. That's the case with Los Angeles as each of its last five opponents have hoisted up 100+ FG attempts. Four of those five opponents knocked down more than 40 field goals and while the Lakers do catch the Blazers in a back-to-back spot, I also feel that Portland will be in a less-than-giving mood after coughing up a double-digit fourth quarter lead in a home loss against the Clippers last night. Portland has held four of its last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts with the exception being a wild 132-129 overtime victory in New York last Friday. The Lakers recently enjoyed an offensive surge but have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four contests, despite the frenetic pace those games have been played at. The Blazers took the first meeting between these two teams back in October and while you might think the Lakers are poised to get their revenge here, the fact is they have defeated Portland by more than five points just once in five meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. Take Portland (8*). |
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11-30-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Wizards as they come off an impressive 142-127 win over the T'Wolves on Monday that snapped a three-game losing streak. All three of those losses came on their most recent road trip so it won't be difficult to sharpen their focus for this brief two-game trip. Note that Washington has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since getting throttled 128-86 at home against the Nets back in October. Prior to that, the Wizards had won consecutive meetings in this series, including a 117-103 victory here in Brooklyn last February. The Nets won but failed to cover against the Magic on Monday (we won with Orlando in that game). They've been shooting the lights out for weeks but I still think they're working with a slim margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games overall. Case in point, the Nets shot better than 54% from the field on Monday but still scored 'only' 109 points in an ATS loss. Washington comes in hot offensively as well, making good on 40+ field goals in seven straight games while hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The Wizards last two opponents have shot exceptionally well but they've held those two teams to 80 and 84 FG attempts, limiting each of their last three foes to less than 90 attempts after five of their previous six opponents had eclipsed that number. Finally, we'll note that Brooklyn checks in a miserable 2-13 ATS the last 15 times it has played at home after winning five or six of its last seven games, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 points in that situation. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers play on without Damian Lillard but the Clippers are in even worse shape, missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall (he'll rest with this being the first of a back-to-back set). Los Angeles did prevail by a 114-100 score over Indiana at home on Sunday, thanks to knocking down 42 field goals - the first time in three games it broke the 40-FG mark. Of course, the Clips needed 94 FG attempts to get there - well north of their season average (they had hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their previous nine contests). While the Blazers do look vulnerable defensively right now (40+ field goals allowed in eight straight games), I'm not convinced the Clips are well-positioned to take advantage. Portland suffered a 111-97 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday, managing just one victory on its four-game road trip. I do think there's reason for optimism as it returns home, noting that it plays at a faster, more fluid pace here, making good on 40-of-85 FG attempts per game. Keep in mind, the last two times Portland has gotten off 80+ FG attempts it has knocked down 44 and 42 of them and Los Angeles has allowed two of its last three foes to get off 94+ FG attempts, yielding 40+ makes in three of its last four contests. While the Clippers are 5-4 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers are an even 4-4 at home but have outscored opponents by 1.8 points on average here at the Moda Center. Take Portland (10*). |
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11-28-22 | Magic +10.5 v. Nets | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Monday. With Brooklyn 'fat and happy' off last night's 14-point win over Portland and Orlando looking to bounce back from four straight losses SU and three in a row ATS, I'll confidently grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Magic on Monday. Note that Orlando have Brooklyn all it could handle in two matchups on this floor last season, losing by a bucket and winning by seven. While Orlando is 1-8 on the road this season, only three of those losses came by more than 10 points. I still feel that the Nets have a fairly small margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. They've been shooting the lights out for the better part of the last two weeks but here they're asked to lay double-digits for the first time since October 29th against Indiana (a game they lost outright 125-116). We know the Magic can limit the opposition's scoring opportunities as they've held their last three opponents to 86, 82 and 77 FG attempts. Last night, the 76ers simply couldn't miss, knocking down a ridiculous 64.9% of their shots. Noting that the Magic are 18-8 ATS the last 26 times they've come off consecutive ATS losses, we'll grab all of those points on Monday. Take Orlando (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -6.5 | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. No question the Suns have had this one circled since dropping a wild 134-133 decision in Salt Lake City on November 18th. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that game, knocking down 51-of-91 field goal attempts in the narrow victory. Here, Phoenix catches Utah in a 3-in-4 situation, playing in a third different city over that stretch. The Jazz have had now answers defensively, allowing four of their last six opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to make good on 47, 44 and 52 field goals. That spells trouble as they face a red hot Suns squad that has knocked down 42+ field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has rounded back into form defensively, holding its last three opponents to 34, 36 and 39 made field goals (the latter came on 92 FG attempts from the Pistons last night). Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-26-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +3 | 143-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Spurs (again) last night. Once again, we saw them push the pace, getting off 100 field goal attempts, but failing to make those opportunities count in a nine-point loss to the same Lakers they'll face on Saturday. Another positive, San Antonio limited Los Angeles to 83 field goal attempts. It has now held six consecutive opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Teams continue to shoot exceptionally well on this admittedly poor Spurs defense, but I do think we see Pop's crew step up in that regard tonight. Note that the Lakers are a woeful 5-17 ATS after giving up 95 points or fewer in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by 2.5 points on average in that situation. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Pistons v. Suns -12 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Detroit at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Pistons off their big upset win over the Jazz in Utah two nights ago as that marked their third consecutive ATS win, marking their longest such streak of the season. Detroit has shot exceptionally well over its last several games, knocking down 43, 47, 45 and 44 field goals over its last four contests, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in three of those games. Here, it runs into a Suns squad that has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and its last two foes to just 34 and 36 made field goals. On the flip side, Phoenix is playing at a tremendous pace and making the most of it, hoisting up 94 or more FG attempts in six of its last seven contests and making good on 43+ field goals in five straight games. Noting that the Suns are 22-10 ATS the last 32 times they've come off consecutive double-digit victories, I don't anticipate a letdown off a 10-point victory over the Lakers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Nets v. Pacers +3 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Nets have absolutely shot the lights out lately, knocking down 40+ field goals in five straight games and 44 or more in each of their last three. Yet they've still been held to 'only' 112 points or less in three of those contests as their pace still isn't up to par, getting off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. Meanwhile, they're playing with fire at the other end of the floor, as each of their last six foes have hoisted up 91 or more FG attempts with their last three getting off 99+. The Pacers are fit to take advantage, noting that they've made good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall, despite attempting 90 or more field goals in only three of those contests. At the other end of the floor, Indiana has limited three of its last four opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts and four of its last six foes to fewer than 40 makes. Last time out, the T'Wolves quite simply couldn't miss, shooting a ridiculous 61% from the field, yet still won by 'only' 14 points. Take Indiana (8*). |
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11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Spurs two nights ago as they fell in a big hole early in the game against the Pelicans and never recovered in a 19-point loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with San Antonio here, however, as it stays home to host the Lakers in a quick revenge spot after getting blown out 123-92 in Los Angeles on Sunday. While Los Angeles does check in 2-1-1 ATS over its last four contests, it isn't necessarily trending in the right direction at either end of the floor. Note that the Lakers have gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games while allowing their last three opponents to hoist up 92, 105 and 102 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs have actually held their last five opponents to 79, 83, 81, 85 and 82 FG attempts but each and every one of those teams have shot the lights out. Of course, that has a lot to do with the inept nature of the Spurs defense. Note, however, that the Lakers might not be fit to take full advantage as they've shot 45.5% or worse in five of six road games this season. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is a long-term 126-95 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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11-25-22 | Wolves v. Hornets +5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Minnesota at 5:10 pm et on Friday. With this line creeping up to +5 I'll step in with a play on the underdog Hornets on Friday. Charlotte is going to get its scoring opportunities, after all it has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in seven of its last nine games, knocking down 42+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been playing at a slower pace than we've come to expect out of it, getting off 85 or fewer FG attempts in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the T'Wolves last two opponents have racked up 90 and 96 FG attempts but have shot incredibly poor. Noting that Minnesota has won just once in the last five meetings in this series and that victory came at home, by only six points, we'll grab all the points we can get with the Hornets here. Take Charlotte (8*). |
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11-23-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs are limping home off an 0-5 road trip but I'm confident they can bounce back and give the Pelicans all they can handle on Wednesday night. It's not difficult to see that San Antonio's problems mostly lie at the defensive end of the floor. All five of the Spurs opponents on their most recent road trip shot better than 51% from the field. All is not lost, however, and I do think we see them turn it around, relatively-speaking, sooner rather than later. Note that San Antonio has actually held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Spurs have managed to knock down 41 or more field goals in three of their last four games. Those two factors would have you thinking they would have at least been able to fare better than their 1-3 ATS mark over that stretch. I expect things to start to level out for them from an ATS perspective as they return home. Note that the Pelicans have been vulnerable defensively as well, allowing six of their last nine opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. They quite simply shot the lights out in a rout of the Warriors (who were resting their stars in a back-to-back spot) two nights ago. Nothing came easy for them against the Spurs last season as San Antonio went 3-2 SU and ATS in five meetings, getting off 91, 93, 89, 92 and 91 FG attempts along the way. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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11-23-22 | Nets v. Raptors -1.5 | 112-98 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the well-rested Raptors as they take the floor following a three-day break, hosting a Nets squad that just got dominated in Philadelphia last night. Brooklyn, once considered one of the league's better defensive teams, has been giving up far too many scoring opportunities with each of its last five opponents hoisting up 91 or more field goal attempts. The Nets have yielded a whopping 99 field goal attempts to each of their last two opponents. On the flip side, Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in six consecutive games. Its only saving grace has been the fact that it has shot the lights out in its last two contests - something I don't expect it to do against Toronto on Wednesday. The Raptors couldn't contain the Hawks fast-paced offense in Atlanta last time out but have still limited five of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, their own offense has been on an uptick despite a number of key contributors being out of the lineup, making good on 40, 44 and 48 field goals over their last three contests. Take Toronto (8*). |
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11-23-22 | Mavs +4.5 v. Celtics | 112-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a pair of extremely tightly-contested games last season and I would expect nothing different in their first matchup this season. Boston was red hot heading into Monday's matchup with the revenge-minded Bulls in Chicago. There were warning signs, however, as the Celtics had allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. We can make that nine out of their last 11 now as Chicago knocked down 46 field goals in a convincing 121-107 victory. Now Boston will have to deal with a Dallas squad that has limited each of its last five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and will be in a foul mood off a one-point home loss against Denver on Sunday. The Mavericks have had their issues offensively but I'm confident a breakout is imminent and this looks like an ideal spot given the Celtics recent vulnerability defensively. With Boston's pace slowing over the last few games, getting off 88, 85 and 87 FG attempts over that stretch, and Dallas' tendency to lock down opposing offenses, yielding 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests, this has all the makings of a game that goes right down to the wire. Take Dallas (8*). |
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11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns -6.5 | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The absence of Chris Paul has provided some solid opportunities to back the Suns at discounted prices and I believe that's the case again on Tuesday as they host the Lakers. Los Angeles is in a prime letdown spot here after shooting the lights out in consecutive games against the Spurs and Pistons (both at home). Last time out, they actually allowed the Spurs to get off a whopping 105 field goal attempts but San Antonio couldn't take advantage, shooting an awful 39% in the loss. The Lakers aren't likely to see anything close to that level of inefficiency from the Suns here. Phoenix is really forcing the issue offensively right now, hoisting up 94+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games and making good on 43 or more field goals in four straight contests. On the flip side, I like the fact that Phoenix got back on track defensively in Sunday's win over the Knicks, holding New York to only 85 FG attempts after its previous two opponents had gotten off 91+. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-22-22 | UMKC v. Indiana State -9.5 | 63-61 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana State minus the points over UMKC at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Missouri-Kansas City pulled off a stunner against Toledo yesterday, winning by double-digits as a 17.5-point underdog. Toledo actually got off 16 more field goal attempts than UMKC in that contest, but couldn't make the most of its opportunities, shooting worse than 40% from the field. Speaking of poor shooting, Indiana State had an uncharacteristically-bad shooting performance against East Carolina yesterday, yet still defeated East Carolina 79-75. The experienced Sycamores have done a tremendous job of frustrating the opposition this season, allowing 20, 25, 27 and 22 made field goals while forcing at least 15 turnovers in fall four contests. Not surprisingly, they check in a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with the lone pointspread defeat coming in yesterday's narrow victory over ECU. UMKC is allowing far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, yielding its first six opponents 60, 57, 64, 62, 58 and 66 field goal attempts - that despite two of those games coming against little-known schools in Lincoln (Missouri) and Calvary. Take Indiana State (8*). |
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11-21-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. We won with Utah the last time these two teams met a couple of weeks ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. Utah continues to afford itself plenty of scoring opportunities, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Over its last two contests it has made good on 51 and 42 field goals and should give the Clippers all they can handle here. Los Angeles obviously plays at a considerably slower pace, getting off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six contests. The Clips made good on 44 field goals in Saturday's rout of the lowly Spurs but that marked its highest total of the season. In stark contrast, Utah has eclipsed that number on five previous occasions. Take Utah (8*). |
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11-21-22 | Mercer v. Florida State -5.5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Mercer at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Florida State is off to an 0-4 start both SU and ATS, experiencing some of the growing pains you might come to expect from a team returning just one starter. With that being said, I like the way this one sets up for the Seminoles as they catch Murray State coming off a home win and cover against Winthrop on Saturday. Mercer has shot 50% or better from the field in all four games to date this season but I'm willing to bet it won't keep that up. While Florida State has yet to find its shooting stroke, it had played fairly tough defense, limiting its first four opponents to 42.2% shooting. Noting that FSU is 22-10 ATS the last 32 times it has played at home off three or more consecutive losses, we'll confidently back the 'Noles here. Take Florida State (8*). |
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11-20-22 | Spurs +7 v. Lakers | 92-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have now dropped four games in a row to open this road trip so they'll be looking to salvage the finale as they stay in Los Angeles for a back-to-back against the Lakers on Sunday night. I like their chances of at least keeping things competitive. Note that San Antonio, whether game-script related or not, continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities here on this trip. Over its last three contests, San Antonio has allowed just 79, 83 and 81 field goal attempts. It's been a much different story for the Lakers defensively as they've allowed seven of their last 11 opponents to hoist up 92 or more FG attempts. Four of Los Angeles' last five opponents have made good on more than 40 field goals, opening the door for a bounce-back performance from the Spurs offense tonight. Despite last night's poor showing against a tough Clippers defense, the Spurs have still knocked down 43+ field goals in five of their last seven contests. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-20-22 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nets | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Grizzlies are dealing with a number of key absences for this game I believe we're seeing an overreaction from the betting marketplace as a result. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 11 contests. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nets made good on more than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies continue to find their scoring opportunities, regardless who is in the lineup, getting off 91+ field goal attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They should continue to do so here, noting that Brooklyn has yielded 91+ FG attempts to three consecutive opponents heading in. Take Memphis (8*). |
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11-19-22 | Spurs +8 v. Clippers | 97-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs have lost three straight games to open this road trip but I look for them to give the Clippers all they can handle on Saturday night in Los Angeles. San Antonio has actually done a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities (relatively speaking of course) on the road this season. Only once have the Spurs allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts away from home and that came in a win in Indiana back on October 21st. Meanwhile, San Antonio has been making the most of its own scoring opportunities lately, making good on 43+ field goals in five of its last six contests. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down. They've attempted 81 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games overall, making good on 34 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. Only twice in their last 11 games have they knocked down more than 41 field goals which makes covering a lofty pointspread such as this one difficult on most nights. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-15-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Blazers | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs got drilled by the Warriors in San Francisco last night but I expect them to put up more of a fight against the Blazers in Portland on Tuesday. San Antonio actually got off a whopping 100 field goal attempts in that setback. It simply couldn't make the most of its opportunities. At the same time, it did limit the Warriors to 'only' 88 field goal attempts but the Warriors shot the lights out, as they're known to do on a regular basis. Here, I don't expect San Antonio to suffer the same fate at the hands of the Blazers, who have made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of their last five contests. Portland is having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four of its last five games. Note that this matchup favored the Spurs last season with San Antonio scoring 114, 133, 130 and 113 points while going a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in four meetings. Take San Antonio (8*). |
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11-14-22 | Suns +1.5 v. Heat | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat are coming off consecutive wins but those both came against the lowly Hornets. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge as they host a Suns squad that checks in off a stunning 17-point loss in Orlando on Friday. I'm confident we'll see Phoenix 'get right' against a sagging Heat defense that has allowed five of its last eight opponents to knock down 41+ field goals, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. Also note that Miami has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in six of its last eight contests. The Suns are an impressive 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games after losing outright as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (9*). |
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11-14-22 | Delaware State v. Villanova -36 | 50-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Delaware State at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Villanova has gone 0-2 ATS to open the season including an outright loss against Temple last time out. I expect the Wildcats to 'get right' on Monday, however, as they host Delaware State. The Hornets own an identical 1-1 record to that of Villanova but all records aren't created equal. The Hornets opened their season with a 95-57 blowout loss at Virginia Tech before evening their record with a 104-67 win over, wait for it, Immaculata. Delaware State not surprisingly shot the lights out in that most recent contest but concerning was the fact that it allowed its virtually unknown opponent to make good on 21-of-43 field goal attempts. Take Villanova (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Southern v. Arizona -27 | 78-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Southern at 9 pm et on Friday. With this game totalled in the 150's, I expect Arizona to make things very uncomfortable for Southern in a fast-paced environment in Tucson on Friday. The Wildcats erupted for 117 points in their season-opening win over Nicholls State, despite turning the basketball over 24 times in that contest. Incredibly, Arizona missed only 15 field goal attempts in the entire game. Southern is coming off a SU loss but ATS cover against UNLV, falling by a score of 66-56. Southern made good on just 19 field goals in that game and now faces a much tougher challenge against the Wildcats. Take Arizona (8*). |
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11-11-22 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Oklahoma -28 | 58-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Arkansas-Pine Bluff at 8 pm et on Friday. Arkansas-Pine Bluff went into Fort Worth and gave TCU the scare of all scares in its season-opener, losing by a single point as a 35.5-point (!) underdog. Meanwhile, Oklahoma lost outright as a 16.5-point favorite at home against a good Sam Houston State squad. I have no trouble getting behind the Sooners in this bounce-back spot, noting that Pine Bluff is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when priced as a road underdog of between 24.5 and 30 points, as is the case here. Pine Bluff is in for a major letdown after scoring 87 points (it needed 82 field goal attempts and 25 forced turnovers to get there) against Champion Baptist last time out. While the Sooners did lose their opener, they actually held Sam Houston State to 21-of-64 shooting from the field. Take Oklahoma (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Alabama State v. USC -24.5 | 58-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Alabama State at 11 pm et on Thursday. USC took it on the chin in its season-opener, falling in a stunner against Florida-Gulf Coast (it lost by 13 points as an 18.5-point favorite). That should get the Trojans attention as they prepare to bounce back against a much more manageable opponent in Alabama State on Thursday night. Alabama State lost by a whopping 41 points in its season-opener against UAB on Monday. While the Hornets did get off 76 field goal attempts in that game, few were of the high quality variety as they ultimately knocked down only 24 of them in a losing effort. Lost in USC's upset loss against FGCU was the fact that it held the Eagles to 24-of-64 shooting. Sloppy play was the story as the Trojans turned the basketball over 15 times. I expect to see a much cleaner performance from USC on Thursday as it gets out and runs after being limited to only 52 field goal attempts against a stingy FGCU defense on Monday. This is as good as it gets in terms of 'get right' spots in the first week of the season. Take USC (8*). |
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11-10-22 | Southern Illinois v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Southern Illinois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Off a 94-63 dismantling of Arkansas-Little Rock, Southern Illinois is getting some support at the current number against Oklahoma State on Thursday. I'm not convinced that support is warranted, however. The Salukis quite simply shot the lights out in their season-opener, knocking down 32-of-55 field goal attempts. My concern is they gave Little Rock 18 extra possessions thanks to turnovers, affording them a whopping 64 field goal attempts. Little Rock just couldn't take advantage. Oklahoma State returns four starters from last year's team and while it was also careless with the basketball in its opener, turning it over 17 times, it also forced 19 turnovers. That was the Cowboys M.O. last season and I believe it will be true again in 2022-23. In stark contrast to Southern Illinois, Oklahoma State made good on just 26-of-60 FG attempts in its opener against Texas-Arlington, never sniffing out an ATS cover as a -20.5-point favorite. On a positive note, it limited Arlington to only 59 FG attempts (making good on only 21 of them). I look for the Cowboys to find their shooting legs here and ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Oklahoma State (10*). |
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11-10-22 | Sacred Heart v. Rutgers -20.5 | 50-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Sacred Heart at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams last met a little under two years ago with Rutgers winning by 23 points despite making just one three-pointer and knocking down just 5-of-15 free throw attempts. Obviously both teams have undergone considerable personnel changes since then but I don't anticipate a much different result with Sacred Heart in a letdown spot off a win and cover over Hartford and Rutgers appearing to be in midseason form in a 75-35 dismantling of Columbia in its season-opener. The Scarlet Knights turned the Lions over a whopping 25 times in that lopsided victory. Sacred Heart likes to play up-tempo, most recently affording Hartford 61 field goal attempts in its season-opening victory. That plays right into the hands of the Scarlet Knights, who made good on 31-of-72 field goal attempts against Columbia. Rutgers can certainly make Sacred Heart uncomfortable here with a smothering defense that limited Columbia to only 47 FG attempts last time out. Take Rutgers (8*). |
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11-09-22 | Cavs -5 v. Kings | 120-127 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Cavaliers as they look to bounce back from a two-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles two nights ago. That was a back-to-back and three-in-four spot for Cleveland. Here, it should benefit from having had yesterday off in the California sunshine as it looks to get back on track against a road-weary Kings squad that wrapped a four-game in eight-night road trip that took it from East to West, wrapping up with Monday's stop in San Francisco. The Kings have been extremely vulnerable defensively this season - as expected - allowing 43, 44, 43 and 44 made field goals in regulation time over their last four contests and 41+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Sacramento has been held to 37, 41, 41 and 37 made field goals in regulation time over its last four contests and has gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six overall. That doesn't bode well as it prepares to face a smothering Cavs defense that has limited its last three opponents to 83, 87 and 79 FG attempts and seven of 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals this season. Cleveland has been thriving offensively, hitting 41+ field goals in seven of its last nine games including 42 or more in three of its last four contests. That's despite playing at a fairly slow pace (it has gotten off fewer than 90 FG attempts in six of its last seven games and 81, 84 and 83 over its last three contests). Here, the pace could tick up and in that situation I'm confident the Cavs can go off offensively. Take Cleveland (8*). |
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11-09-22 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs offense has cooled considerably following a hot start to the campaign while at the same time their defensive play has sagged, leading to a 1-3 ATS ledger over their last four games. While they did manage to eke out an ATS cover against Denver on Monday, I look for a different story to unfold as the Grizzlies roll into town on Wednesday. Memphis has done a nice job of pushing the pace offensively this season, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games and eight of its 11 contests overall. That spells trouble for a Spurs squad that has yielded 40+ made field goals in seven straight games, including a whopping 47+ in five of those contests. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Last time out the Spurs attempted just 82 field goals but shot the lights out, ultimately earning the cover in a six-point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Here, I'm not convinced the Grizzlies will be as forgiving, noting that they've held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of their last eight to 89 or less FG atttempts. Take Memphis (10*). |
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11-09-22 | Bucks v. Thunder +7.5 | Top | 136-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Thunder in this same matchup on Saturday as Oklahoma City simply couldn't knock down its shots and ultimately fell by double-digits in Milwaukee. Having now dropped four straight meetings with the Bucks, the Thunder will obviously be up for this return match in Oklahoma City on Wednesday and I look for them to challenge for the outright win. While the Thunder have now dropped three consecutive games both SU and ATS, I'm still a believer in what they're doing and feel they have the perfect formula to cash tickets as sizable underdogs, as is the case tonight. Note that OKC has afforded itself plenty of scoring opportunities on a game-by-game basis, getting off 93+ field goal attempts in eight of 10 games to date (aided by overtime on one occasion). It has also made good on 41+ field goals in eight contests. On the flip side, the Thunder check in having limited seven of their last nine opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down 40+ field goals. While most will look to back the Bucks in this bounce-back spot off an ugly loss to the Hawks in Atlanta two nights ago, I don't envision them winning by margin, noting that they've yielded 92+ field goal attempts to five of their last seven opponents. Meanwhile, they've yet to find their rhythm offensively, knocking down 38, 43, 41, 38 and 36 field goals over their last five games. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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11-08-22 | Mercer +1 v. East Carolina | 75-77 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mercer over East Carolina at 7 pm et on Tuesday. East Carolina does come out of the larger conference but as the line indicates, I don't think it is the better team in this matchup, at least not at this early stage of the season. The Pirates are in a bit of a transition year, with a new head coach and a number of new faces in the lineup. East Carolina loses its top three scorers from last season and while the cupboard is by no means bare, I do think it's going to take some time for this squad to come together. The Bears on the other hand, return three of five starters from last season and I expect them to use this game as a launching point as they build toward a showdown against Florida State in Tallahassee later this month. Note that Mercer has been comfortable playing in this pointspread range, going 10-6 ATS in its last 16 games where the line was set between +3 and -3. In the same pointspread range, ECU has gone just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 contests. That's not to mention the fact that the Pirates home court advantage has been virtually non-existent, at least from an ATS perspective, as they've gone just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 lined home games. Take Mercer (8*). |
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11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. The Clippers have cashed in a favorite role in each of their last two games but I don't think we should make a habit of backing this team laying points. Note that Los Angeles continues to have a tough enough time getting shots off, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all nine games this season and 84 or fewer on seven occasions. Meanwhile, the Jazz are getting most of the attention due to their scoring prowess, but they can play some defense as well, limiting four of their last five opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The only team that topped that number over that stretch was Memphis in a game Utah won by a score of 121-105. On the flip side, Utah checks in having made good on 42+ field goals in seven of 10 contests this season. The Clips are generally considered to be an elite defensive team but they've yet to really hit their stride in that regard this season, with the Rockets (twice) and Lakers being the only two teams they've held to fewer than 40 made field goals to date. Take Utah (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Blazers v. Suns -9 | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. I think the Suns may have forgotten they actually had to show up to secure the revenge victory over the upstart Blazers last night. While Phoenix shot poorly, Portland seemingly couldn't miss as it pulled out another narrow two-point victory (it won the season's earlier meeting by the same margin at home). Here, I look for the Suns to bounce back. Phoenix has still held seven of its eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts this season. Last night marked the first time in four games that it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Meanwhile, Portland has still yet to get off more than 90 FG attempts in a game this season and while it has managed to slow its last two opponents, it has still yielded 91+ FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last seven games. Prior to this season, the Suns had reeled off three straight wins in this series, including a pair of double-digit victories on this floor. Expect Phoenix to deliver some payback on Saturday. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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11-05-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Thunder on Thursday as they couldn't contain the Nuggets in the fourth quarter in an eventual 12-point loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them, however, as they hit the road to face the Bucks in Milwaukee. Note that Oklahoma City continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, yielding 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in seven straight games. The Nuggets quite simply shot the lights out against them on Thursday, something I don't expect the banged-up Bucks to do in a back-to-back spot on Saturday. Milwaukee has been defending well, but still allows far too many opportunities for its liking, with four of its last five opponents getting off 92+ field goal attempts. The Thunder figure to be more than capable of taking advantage of those opportunities as they've made good on 41+ field goals in seven straight games and exactly 45 in each of their last two contests. While the Bucks won in a rout the last time these two teams met, a weaker Thunder squad took them to task in last year's meeting here in Milwaukee, losing by only seven points as a double-digit underdog. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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11-04-22 | Blazers v. Suns -10 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I would argue that no team has played as well as the Suns out of the gate this season. Of course, playing five of seven games at home has helped. They'll stay home in a revenge-minded role against the Blazers here - the team that handed them their lone loss of the season to date. Keep in mind, Portland is no longer at full strength, missing Damian Lillard and possible Anfernee Simons as well as he's questionable to play due to a foot injury. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in all seven games this season. On the flip side, they've held six of seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of Phoenix's opponents has managed to get off more than 87 field goal attempts and that was Golden State in a game the Suns won by 29 points. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6 | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Thunder in the first matchup between these two teams in Denver back on October 22nd and I won't hesitate to come back with the same play in this rematch in Oklahoma City on Thursday. Obviously, Denver was in a tougher scheduling spot on that night, playing the second of back-to-backs off a big upset win over the defending champion Warriors on San Francisco the night previous. The Thunder were in the midst of a three-game losing streak to open the season, however. Here, OKC enters off four consecutive victories, both SU and ATS. The Thunder have been tremendously consistent offensively, stuffing boxscores to the tune of 41+ made field goals in each of their last six games and 44 or more in each of their last three. They've also done a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, relatively-speaking, holding six consecutive opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. They've also limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, and that includes an overtime period against the Mavericks two games back. The Nuggets on the other hand have allowed three straight and four of their last five opponents to hoist up 90+ field goal attempts. Of their seven opponents so far this season, six managed to knock down 40+ field goals. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Grizzlies -3.5 v. Blazers | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies got their lunch handed to them in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Jazz in Salt Lake City over the weekend. Here, I look for them to bounce back against the Blazers in Portland. Note that Memphis continues to 'play the right way', limiting its last four opponents to 87, 83, 87 and 89 field goal attempts. Unfortunately, those four opponents shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Blazers doing off a scintillating shooting performance of their own. Portland has been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of its six games this season and last Friday's rout of the Rockets marked the first time all season the Blazers got off 90+ field goal attempts. Defensively, the Blazers haven't been good. They've yielded 40+ made field goals to their opponents in each of their last five games. Four of their last five opponents got off 91+ FG attempts. Look for the Grizzlies to take full advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). |
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11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -5.5 | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Utah at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz are off to a stunning 6-2 start to the season and are fresh off sweeping the Grizzlies in a two-game set in Salt Lake City. I can't help but feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday in Dallas, however. The Mavericks got a bit of a scare at home against the Magic on Sunday, playing in a back-to-back spot off an overtime loss to the Thunder the night previous. Now they're at home, off consecutive days off for the first time in a couple of weeks and I look for them to turn in a much sharper performance on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five games. On the flip side, they've held all six opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts this season. The two previous times we've seen them play on 2+ days' rest this season they've shot a combined 50% from the field while holding those two opponents to just 79 and 76 FG attempts. The Jazz are just one game removed from allowing a ridiculous 50 made field goals against Memphis, and the Grizzlies were without Ja Morant in that contest. Five of their last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts and should the Mavs get into that range on Wednesday, I'm confident we'll see them hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. Take Dallas (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Magic v. Thunder -3 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the short number with the Thunder as they host the reeling Magic on Tuesday night. Orlando checks in 1-6 on the season but the fact that it has gone 2-0 or 1-0-1 ATS in its last two games affords us a reasonable price to fade the Magic here. Orlando has made good on 37 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games and I'm not convinced it will have enough scoring opportunities to keep pace with the Thunder here. Note that Oklahoma City has been as consistent as it gets offensively, knocking down 41+ field goals in five straight games entering this contest. On the flip side, the Thunder have held five straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses but I like them to bounce back as they catch the Nets in a back-to-back spot off a rare win over the Pacers last night. Brooklyn is still just 2-5 on the season and needed to shoot the lights out to secure a win (but not a cover) against Indiana. Note that the Nets have still only managed to get off 89 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games this season. Last night, they hoisted up just 80 shots against the defensively-challenged Pacers. Defensively, Brooklyn has allowed 40+ made field goals in six of seven games. The only occasion where the Nets held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals it still lost by double-digits against Milwaukee. Chicago, on the other hand, has held three of its last four opponents to 39 or fewer made field goals. Only one of its seven opponents has managed to get off more than 86 field goal attempts and that was a game it won by 18 points against Boston. The last time these two teams met, Brooklyn won in a rout last March. Keep in mind, the Nets were playing with triple in-season revenge in that spot. Different story here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers have picked themselves up after dropping the opening game of their current four-game road trip, posting consecutive wins (SU and ATS) over the Raptors and Bulls. Philadelphia is still having a tough enough time just getting shots off, however, noting that it has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven games this season. It has quite simply knocked down its shots at an incredibly high rate during its current road trip but I expect it to run into some trouble against the Wizards in Washington on Monday. The Wizards have quietly been locking down their opponents, yet to allow more than 41 made field goals in a game this season. They've limited three of their last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts. Yesterday, Washington fell by a score of 112-94 in Boston as it shot a miserable 38.8% from the field. Prior to that, the Wiz had knocked down 41+ field goals in all five games this season. Note that Washington took two of three meetings between these two teams last season and has won 30 of the last 50 matchups between these two franchises in the nation's capital. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-28-22 | Rockets +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers had their perfect 4-0 start to the season stopped in a blowout loss against the Heat two nights ago. Not only did they lose that game but they lost their best player in Damian Lillard to injury as well. Regardless whether Portland has Lillard or not, I like the Rockets catching a handful of points here. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time just getting shots off this season, attempting 88, 82, 84, 83 and 78 field goals through its first five games. On the flip side, the Blazers have yielded 41+ made field goals in four consecutive games with three of their five opponents getting off 91+ FG attempts this season. That's obviously the pace the Rockets prefer to play at, noting that they've hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. They haven't shot well over that stretch but should bounce back here. Note that Houston is a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here, while Portland checks in 18-36 ATS in its last 54 games following a loss. Take Houston (10*). |
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10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets got the better of the Jazz by a 114-108 score in Houston two nights ago but I look for Utah to answer right back on Wednesday back in Salt Lake City. Despite dropping that contest, the Jazz continued their streak of hot shooting to open the campaign, knocking down 44 field goals - their fourth straight game hitting 42+ field goals. Having hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 field goal attempts over their last three contests, I'm confident the Jazz can overwhelm a weak Rockets defense here. Even in Monday's win, Houston still allowed Utah to get off 93 FG attempts, as mentioned. The Rockets have now yielded their first four opponents' 45, 45, 48 and 43 made field goals. On the flip side, Houston has knocked down just 36 and 38 field goals over its last two games. Even with a number of new faces in the lineup, the Jazz are clearly comfortable operating in an extremely fast-paced environment. Despite Monday's victory, I think the Rockets are still figuring things out with their youthful roster. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points in that situation. Take Utah (10*). |
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10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns -2.5 | 105-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams enter Tuesday's showdown sporting 2-1 records, although they've looked very different in doing so. Hidden in the Warriors positive start has been their poor defensive play. They've allowed two of their three opponents to get off 93+ field goal attempts with all three of the teams they've faced having knocked down 40+ field goals. In the one game where they did limit the Nuggets to only 86 field goal attempts, they still allowed a whopping 128 points in a losing effort. The Suns, meanwhile, are in midseason form defensively. They've held their first three opponents to just 75, 82 and 82 FG attempts, allowing 36 or fewer made field goals in all three contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has knocked down 40, 43 and 43 field goals itself. Despite getting little offensive production from DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul, the Suns still scored 112 points in a 17-point win over the full-strength Clippers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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10-25-22 | Clippers v. Thunder +9.5 | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Thunder are missing two of their best players in Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but it's not as if the Clippers are setting the world on fire in the early going this season, and they have their own key absence to deal with in Paul George. Oklahoma City enters this contest still winless on the campaign at 0-3 although all three games have been relatively close (decided by 10 points or less). Over their last two games, the Thunder held the Nuggets and T'Wolves - two high-powered offensive teams - to just 85 and 88 field goal attempts, respectively. Unfortunately both of those opponents quite simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate the Clippers doing the same here. Note that Los Angeles has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games, making good on just 37, 41 and 36 of those shots. The Thunder have afforded themselves far more opportunities at the very least, hoisting up 99, 94 and 94 FG attempts. In this early stage of the season, the Clippers haven't exactly been locking down the opposition, yielding their first three opponents 94, 85 and 93 FG attempts. Noting that these two teams have split their last four meetings with three of those four contests being decided by five points or less, I'll grab the points with the home side on Tuesday. Take Oklahoma City (8*). |
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10-22-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Nuggets were busy upsetting the Warriors in San Francisco last night, the Thunder have been idle since opening the season with a narrow loss in Minnesota on Wednesday. Nothing that Oklahoma City is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win but SU loss on the road, we'll confidently back it here. While the Thunder lost their opener, I did like the fact that they managed to push the pace and get off 99 field goal attempts. On the flip side, they held what looks like an explosive T'Wolves offense to only 39 made field goals on 94 attempts. Going back to the preseason, the Thunder have yet to allow an opponent knock down more than 41 field goals in five games against NBA competition (they played two preseason games against non-NBA foes). As for the Nuggets, they're off to a 1-1 start to the campaign, yielding 42 made field goals in each contest despite limiting both of their opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. Nothing came easy for the Nuggets in this series last season as they only managed a 2-2 split with their two wins coming by a combined 10 points. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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10-21-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +1 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I have the Wizards pegged as a potential surprise team in the Eastern Conference this season and I like the way this spot sets up for them in their home-opener against the Bulls on Friday. Chicago pulled off a stunner in its season-opener two nights ago, leading most of the way in a 116-108 win over the Heat in Miami. We won with the 'over' in that contest, noting that the Bulls had a fantastic preseason from an offensive standpoint but also some warts to deal with at the defensive end of the floor. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to contain Miami's offense to the tune of just 80 field goal attempts. Yet the Heat still put up 108 points. Keep in mind, during its preseason slate, Chicago yielded its four opponents 93, 88, 96 and 92 FG attempts. We know the Wizards can push the pace, noting that they got off 92 FG attempts in their 114-107 win in Indiana two nights ago. I like Washington's depth a whole lot more than I do Chicago's. The Bulls needed DeMar Derozan's heroics to pull out the victory in Miami. Here, I'm not convinced his scoring exploits will be enough. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -4 | 90-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We cashed a ticket fading the 76ers on opening night in Boston but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back them as they return home to host the Bucks on Thursday. I'm just not sure that Milwaukee gets enough scoring opportunities to ultimately keep Philadelphia within arm's reach in this game. Note that the Bucks struggled to get their shots off during the preseason. They topped out at 41 made field goals in a 10-point loss to the Hawks but they needed 97 field goal attempts to get there. Outside of that they were limited to just 37, 33, 37 and 34 made field goals in their other four preseason tilts. The 76ers made good on 40-of-80 FG attempts in their opener against the Celtics. Boston simply shot the lights out in that contest as Philadelphia did limit it do just 82 FG attempts. Milwaukee has won three straight meetings here in Philadelphia. I look for that streak to end here. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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10-19-22 | Blazers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. It may surprise you to find out that the Kings actually finished with a better record than the Blazers last season and were considerably stronger against the Western Conference. While Sacramento only held a three-game advantage over Portland overall, it was nine games better against the West. While I don't put a lot of stock in preseason results, there are exceptions to that rule. The Kings went a perfect 4-0 during their exhibition schedule, making good on 42, 45, 36 and 46 field goals in those four contests. The outlier was a game in Phoenix where they shot 41% from the field but still pulled out a one-point victory. On the flip side, the Kings did a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, something we're certainly not used to seeing when it comes to this franchise. Only one of their four preseason opponents got off 80+ field goal attempts and that was the Lakers in a game where they scored only 86 points on 29-of-81 shooting. There are a lot of mouths to feed when it comes to the Blazers offense, especially with the addition of Jerami Grant from the Pistons. Portland went winless against NBA opposition during the preseason (it did post a victory over Maccabi Ra'anana) and it wasn't pretty as it knocked down just 31, 36, 29 and 32 field goals, with the low-water mark coming in a 126-94 loss to the Kings. It's not as if Portland sent its 'B' squad to the court in that game against Sacramento either. Its starting five consisted of Nurkic, Grant, Simons, Lillard and Hart - likely the same lineup we'll see tonight. All five played 22+ minutes in that game against Sacramento. Maybe the Blazers 'flip the switch' on Wednesday but I'm not betting on it. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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10-19-22 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Only one game separated these two teams near the Eastern Conference basement last season with Detroit holding that narrow advantage. Both franchises continue to look to the future. Here, in Tuesday's season-opener I believe the Pistons are being given a little too much respect. Detroit may have plenty of young talent on its roster but it couldn't get a stop in the preseason, allowing its four opponents to knock down 46, 38, 45 and 46 field goals. The outlier came in a contest the Pistons still lost by six points in New Orleans. On the flip side, the Pistons made good on just 33, 31, 35 and 40 field goals in those four games. The latter performance took a whopping 102 FG attempts to get there and Detroit still lost that contest by 15 points against Memphis. The Magic went 4-1 in the preseason and actually showed a pulse on defense, limiting the opposition to just 36, 34, 35, 37 and 35 made field goals. It yielded its opponents more than 82 FG attempts only once in those five games. We saw steady improvement from Orlando offensively over the course of the preseason, culminating with it knocking down 39+ field goals in each of its last three games. Now it gets a boost with the expected return of Jalen Suggs for Tuesday's opener. Take Orlando (8*). |
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10-18-22 | Lakers +6.5 v. Warriors | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I love everything about the Lakers entering the new season, in a very strange sort of way. Consider them a beautiful mess under first-year head coach Darvin Ham. Here, we're catching more than a handful of points with Los Angeles in a spot few expect much out of it on the road against the defending champion Warriors. Of course, Golden State is a well-oiled machine but like I said, I'm more intrigued by the Lakers at this early stage of the season. There's room for improvement at the center position with Damian Jones, formerly of the Kings and Thomas Bryant, who comes over from the Wizards two true wild cards. Lebron James and Anthony Davis are healthy, for now. Russell Westbrook might be injured. He might start. He might come off the bench. Again, another complete wild card. And then there's the whole Pat Beverley situation. As odd as it may sound I believe it all adds up to a far more interesting and potentially improved Lakers squad and this is a perfect opportunity to make a statement right out of the gate. Interestingly, the Lakers check in 27-19 ATS the last 46 times they've played on the road with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Warriors are a mediocre 33-35 ATS in their last 68 contests when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
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10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm higher on the Celtics than some entering the new season and I like their chances of picking up a statement win against a division rival in Tuesday's home opener. While Boston's big offseason acquisition Danilo Gallinari is now sidelined for the season, the cupboard is still well-stocked. Robert Williams is also injured but there's depth at the power forward position with veteran Al Horford and Grant Williams, who showed some positive signs during the preseason. I also like the bench duo of Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to make big strides this season. The 76ers went undefeated in four preseason games so the argument could be made that they're already in midseason form. I don't put a ton of stock in NBA preseason wins and losses though. I'm simply not as high on the 76ers depth as I am on the Celtics. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia has been outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points as a road underdog going back to the start of last season (20-game sample size). Take Boston (10*). |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday. Most had probably written the Warriors off at the end of the first half in Game 4 on Friday as they coughed up a second quarter lead and went into the break down by five points, looking down-trodden at best. From there, Steph Curry took over, lifting them to a much-needed victory to even this series at two games apiece. Now it's the Celtics turn to respond and I expect them to do just that on Monday. Note that Golden State knocked down 40 field goals for the first time in this series on Friday, but only got there thanks to getting off 91 field goal attempts. I don't expect that same pace to be there for the Warriors on Monday, however. In three meetings between these two teams in San Francisco this season, Boston has held Golden State to 86, 88 and 86 field goal attempts. It's certainly worth noting that the Celtics have allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in all seven games following a loss in these playoffs. They've also gone a perfect 7-0 in those contests. Note that Boston checks in 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season and 15-5 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite, with both situations coming into play following Friday's 107-97 loss. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Finals First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State first half plus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors didn't play particularly well in Game 3 of this series as the 'zig-zag' trend continued. Here, I look for a positive response from Golden State, at least early in Game 4 on Friday night. Note that the Warriors are 30-15 ATS in the first half after suffering a loss by 15+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a woeful 5-15 ATS in the first half when playing at home off a home victory this season, outscored by 0.1 points on average in that spot. I'm not willing to bet against the Celtics making the necessary halftime adjustments at home should they fall behind early in this one, instead we'll grab the points with Golden State in the first 24 minutes on Friday. Take Golden State first half (10*). |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 61 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Sunday. We missed with our big play on the Warriors but did cash the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. That was obviously a painful loss as Golden State entered the fourth quarter with a 12-point lead but couldn't make it stand up. Chalk it up to a case of the Celtics simply not missing from beyond the arc. Boston knocked down 21 three-pointers in that contest - similar to what we saw in Game 2 last round against the Heat. You may remember how Game 3 went as Miami controlled proceedings from the opening tip and cruised to an outright underdog road win. Here, the Warriors will look to bounce back on their home floor and I expect them to do just that. Note that Golden State is 25-12 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.3 points on average in that situation. Boston made good on 43 field goals in Game 1 and that's notable as it hasn't posted consecutive 40+ field goal games since Games 4 and 5 against Milwaukee back in the second round. Note that it lost the second of those games both SU and ATS. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I get the feeling this might be the best price we get to back the Warriors at home all series. We just won with Boston in Game 7 of its Eastern Conference Finals showdown against Miami. Of course, the Celtics struggled to put the Heat away late in the fourth quarter of that contest. We saw the C's and Warriors split two regular season matchups with each team winning on the other's home court. I expect a different story to unfold in the opener of this series, however. Note that Boston was held to 36 or fewer made field goals in six of seven games against Miami last round. It had a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting fewer than 80 field goals in five of the seven contests. The Warriors on the other hand have been locked-in offensively for months now. They enter this series having knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, they just held Dallas to 37 or fewer made field goals in four of five games in the Western Conference Finals. After an up-tempo series against the Grizzlies, they limited the Mavericks to 86 or fewer FG attempts in all five games last round. Regardless how this series plays out pace-wise, I expect Golden State to be comfortable. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 9-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after dropping a lopsided 110-88 affair here in mid-March, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami first half plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat were embarrassed in the second half of Game 5 two nights ago, on their home floor no less. Most have completely written them off as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 6 - a potential elimination game for Miami having dug itself a 3-2 series hole. I do expect the Heat to come out fighting in this one, however, and will grab them with the generous handful of points in the first half on Friday night. Note that Miami has gone 13-5 ATS in the first half after losing consecutive games ATS this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive 5.3-point margin in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are a woeful 3-12 ATS in the first half when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories this season, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The last time we saw these teams meet in Boston in Game 4 the Celtics built an insurmountable 57-33 lead at halftime. The Heat did respond by leading by five at the half in Game 5 but it still wasn't enough as they couldn't keep it going in the second half. We won't worry about the second half on Friday, instead backing the Heat in the game's first 24 minutes as I expect them to give the Celtics their best punch, early on at least. Take Miami first half (10*). |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Thursday. Simply put, the Mavericks haven't found enough scoring opportunities to truly stay competitive in this series, noting that they've been held to 86, 78, 75 and 82 field goal attempts through the first four games. Fortunately, they shot the lights out in Game 4, staving off elimination for one game at least. The problem is, they haven't been able to stop the Warriors offense. Golden State enters Game 5 on Thursday having made good on 41, 46, 46, 38 and 41 field goals over its last five games. Unlike the Mavs, who have been held to fewer than 80 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests, the Warriors have gotten off 80+ in 12 straight games. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.6 points on average in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat had their doors blown off two nights ago in Boston, falling behind by an almost insurmountable deficit early and never recovering. That's not to say the opportunities weren't there, however. They actually got off 90 field goal attempts in the loss (compared to just 78 for the Celtics). In fact, the Celtics have been held to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the first four games of this series and haven't reached 90 field goal attempts in a game since back on April 10th in Memphis. Boston has gone 1-5 ATS after attempting fewer than 80 field goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons. Here, we'll also note that Miami checks in 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 points or less in a game this season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS when coming off a home win by 20+ points this season. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. You're not going to win many games when your opponent knocks down 20+ three-pointers and the Heat found that out first hand on Thursday night. I do think we see Miami throw that result away and come back strong as the series shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Saturday, however. The Celtics aren't going to shoot the lights out again from long range here. Note that Miami has held opponents to an average of 37-of-84 shooting including 13 made threes per game on the road this season. The Heat, despite not holding serve in the first two games at home, have done a good job of limiting the Celtics opportunities, allowing 79 and 84 field goal attempts heading into Game 3. In fact, the C's have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 13 consecutive games - a big reason they've gone just 2-3 ATS as a favorite over that stretch. Miami has now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games to open this series. It hasn't been kept under that number in three straight contests since March 23rd-26th. With that being said, I expect a positive response from the Heat here, noting that they've gone 18-6 ATS in an underdog role this season and check in 16-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. The Mavericks not surprisingly struggled to get back up for Game 1 of this series after overcoming the top-seeded Suns in a come-from-behind victory last round. We won with the Warriors two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Mavs here. Dallas actually did an alright job of slowing the Warriors offense in Game 1, holding it to just 82 field goal attempts. The Warriors quite simply shot the lights out. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here, however, noting that Golden State similarly shot 64% in a 142-112 Game 3 rout of Memphis last round before knocking down just 40% of its shots while eking out a 101-98 victory in Game 4. We know the Mavs are capable of better defensively, noting that they've held 10 of their last 14 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, going 9-5 ATS while suffering consecutive ATS losses only once over that stretch. Here, we'll also point out that Dallas is 9-1 ATS when coming off a loss by 20+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.2 points in that situation. Golden State has now held consecutive opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - the first time it has accomplished that feat all playoffs. It has also posted back-to-back ATS victories for the first time since starting its opening round series against Denver with three in a row. Take Dallas (8*). |
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05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Mavericks for rallying back from a 3-2 series deficit to oust the Suns in seven games, delivering an incredible knockout punch on the road in Game 7 on Sunday. There's no question, Dallas has been at its best when facing adversity in these playoffs (Game 2 without Luka Doncic in round one against Utah and Game 3 after digging an 0-2 hole last round against Phoenix come to mind). Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Mavs best punch as both teams feel their way around Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State has the benefit of playing at home, where it has gone 37-10 this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game, and also checks in well-rested but not likely rusty following just four off days. I like the fact that the Warriors come in seeking revenge for consecutive losses against the Mavs, noting that they've gone 24-12 ATS when playing with 'double-revenge' over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average along the way. For their part, the Mavs check in just 4-6 ATS when coming off an outright underdog road victory this season, as is the case here, and 1-3 ATS when following up consecutive wins by 15+ points. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Boston at 8:45 pm et on Tuesday. I think there was a somewhat common line of thinking that whichever team prevailed in the Bucks vs. Celtics series would likely go on to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. I don't feel the Heat are deserving of that disrespect - after all, we're talking about the number-one seed in the East and a team that has for the most part cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Here, we're able to back Miami at a very short price despite the fact that it is home and rested while the Celtics are just one day removed from Game 7 of a grueling series against the defending champion Bucks. Note that while the Heat have shown they can prevail in any type of environment, winning high-scoring and low-scoring affairs, the Celtics are actually 0-2 SU and ATS when being held to 101 points or less in these playoffs. Miami has given up fewer than 100 points in seven of 11 games in these playoffs. While I'm not saying this one will turn into a slugfest, I do like the Heat's depth and flexibility regardless the type of contest that plays out on Tuesday. Note that Miami had at least five players score in double-figures in consecutive victories to close out the Sixers last round - a much different story than the Celtics last opponent, the Bucks, who obviously relied heavily on Giannis to do it all. Take Miami (9*). |
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen these two teams trade blowouts over the last two games and I won't be surprised if we see more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday as the Suns return home looking to close out the Mavs. Dallas has reached a high-water mark of 40 made field goals in this series, failing to reach that number in any of the last three contests. In fact, the Suns have held the Mavs to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the six games in this series. Meanwhile, Phoenix is coming off its ugliest shooting performance of the series in Game 6. We expected a response from the Mavs in that game and saw exactly that as they locked down the Suns potent offense. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, noting that the Suns are a terrific 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.9 points on average in that situation. They're also 24-11 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.0 points in that spot. Take Phoenix (8*). |
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