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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-20 | Atletico Madrid v. Bayern Munich UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' 2.75 goals between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich at 3 pm et on Wednesday. There's plenty of offensive firepower on display in this match between two giants on Wednesday but I'm not convinced this early group stage match will turn into a high-scoring affair. Similarly to yesterday's match between Sevilla and Chelsea, I suspect we'll see a bit of a feeling out process in this one, noting that these two squads are unquestionably the best in Group A (Salzburg and Lokomotiv Moscow round out the grouping). As much as Bayern in particular would like to make a statement here in the opener, Atletico Madrid is solid in the back and more than capable of holding form. The simple fact that Munich has scored a whopping 20 goals in five Bundesliga matches to date this season leads to this total being set a little higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under 2.75 goals (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for both offenses, even with the Cowboys having lost QB Dak Prescott for the season. The Cardinals are coming off a nice 'get right' matchup against the Jets and should be able to keep it rolling against a pitiful Cowboys defense here. Note that Dallas simply isn't getting after opposing quarterbacks which should help set up a clean pocket for capable Cardinals QB Kyler Murray on Monday night. Given that clean pocket there's little reason to expect anything other than a monster performance from Murray and his favorite target WR DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't stopping anyone from running the football which bodes well for the Cards backfield tandem of Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. While most are quick to write off the Cowboys offense, I believe they can keep playing fast and putting plenty of points on the board with veteran Andy Dalton under center. It's not as if the rest of the offensive cupboard is bare - the Cowboys are positively loaded all over the field, and particularly at wide receiver. Note that the Cards lost arguably their best defender in Chandler Jones to injury last week. Without Jones, I look for Dalton to navigate the very beatable Cards defense and help this one 'over' the posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Texans and Titans do battle on Sunday afternoon in Nashville. This is a big-time smash spot for Texans QB Deshaun Watson who looked relaxed and sharp without the specter of head coach Bill O'Brien hanging over him last week. Things should really open up for the Texans offense against a Titans defense that has allowed just under 5.6 yards per rush this season. Likewise, Houston's defense has also allowed well north of five yards per rush this season so it would come as no surprise if Titans RB Derrick Henry kept rolling here this week. Keep in mind, Houston will be without run-stopper Benardrick McKinney after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. Houston has offered no resistance against opposing passing games this season so this is also a green-light spot for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill who continues to be severely undervalued by most. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Houston at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point but I expect some offense on Wednesday night as the Rays send Tyler Glasnow to the hill against Zack Greinke. Glasnow has enjoyed a terrific 2020 season but lately we've seen him labor a bit, working at least six innings in just three of his last seven starts. The Astros will obviously be in desperation mode down 3-0 in the series and while that by no means guarantees success at the plate, I do expect them to put up a fight here. Speaking of laboring, Astros veteran starter Zack Greinke has struggled through two postseason starts against the Twins and A's and now faces an even better offense in the Rays. You would have to go back to September 8th to find the last time he worked six innings in a game. With the 'under' having cashed in three straight games to open this series I believe we're getting some value going the other way with the 'over' on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NLCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen scoring diminish since the start of the LCS with all three games in the American and National League staying 'under' the total. I expect more of the same on Tuesday afternoon as the Braves and Dodgers play Game 2. Ian Anderson has been outstanding for the Braves. In two postseason starts he has allowed just five hits and no earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only three in 11 2/3 innings of work. I certainly expect Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to rise the occasion against the young Anderson here. Kershaw has allowed three earned runs on nine hits while posting a 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two postseason starts this year. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon as the suddenly red hot Panthers roll into town to face the Falcons. Carolina should continue to thrive offensively against a Falcons defense that proven stout against the run but simply can't stop the pass - which has essentially been par for the course in recent years. The Panthers boast an underrated stable of wide receivers led by Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore and should dominate an injury-riddled Falcons defense. Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense is also dealing with some injuries but is expected to have WR Calvin Ridley on the field on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers haven't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all so Falcons QB Matt Ryan should have a much easier time than we saw in Monday's ugly loss to the Packers. There's a big difference between facing the Pack at Lambeau Field and hosting the Panthers in the Dome. Even Todd Gurley and the Falcons backfield could have a day on Sunday against a Panthers defense that allows 4.6 yards per rush. Take the over (10*). |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Bucs wild, high-scoring win over the Chargers last Sunday but did manage to cash the 'under' in the Bears blowout loss to the Colts. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as these two 3-1 teams do battle. Playing on a short week the Bucs are in tough with a number of key cogs banged up on offense. Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard have both shown some good chemistry with Tom Brady in the early going but now both are sidelined. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's backfield continues to deal with a number of injuries as well. Of course they'll be up against an above average Bears defense, on the road no less, on a short week. I have very little faith in the Nick Foles-led Bears offense right now and if you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I'm high on the Bucs defense. Note that Tampa Bay is giving up just 2.4 yards per rush this season and that really hamstrings a struggling Bears offense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's really no one all that imposing on the Chicago offense. This has the makings of a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. There's a lot of talk of 'juiced balls' thanks to a high-scoring start to the MLB Division Series'. I'm not buying it and expect a return to 'normal' as the Yankees and Rays play their third game in as many days on Wednesday. This series has obviously featured a ton of runs on the strength of plenty of long balls. I look for things to settle down in this one as two veteran starters take the hill in Masahiro Tanaka and Charlie Morton. Morton didn't get a start in the brief Wild Card round so he'll be eager to take the ball here. Keep in mind, this will be his ninth career playoff start having posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Tanaka will be making his tenth career playoff start having recorded an even better 2.70 ERA and 0.88 WHIP (despite an ugly start against Cleveland last week). Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 43 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these two AFC bottom-feeders on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. Jacksonville got stymied by the Dolphins of all teams in last week's Thursday nighter. It's interesting that most had high hopes for the Jags Gardner Minshew-led offense heading into that game (myself included) but are now quick to write them off. I'm confident we'll see a big bounce-back performance from the Jags offense against a very beatable Bengals defense on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is set up well to open things up given Cincinnati has done little to slow opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 5.2 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense has plenty of upside with QB Joe Burrow moving the football consistently in an up-tempo attack. With Jacksonville showing some ability to shut down opposing running games, look for Burrow to take to the air and expose a very beatable Jags secondary in this one. While A.J. Green has been a virtual no-show, the rest of the Bengals receivers have been quietly performing well and building a nice rapport with the rookie Burrow. Look for continued progression from the Cincinnati offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Friday. This total is going the wrong way in my opinion following an 'under' result in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that relatively low-scoring series-opening result, seven straight games involving these two teams (in the Conference Finals) had gone 'over' the total we're dealing with here in Game 2. The Heat will likely be undermanned in this one with Bam Adebayo dealing with a neck strain. His absence shouldn't be underestimated as he was named to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team just last month. I do think we'll see the Heat punch back after their no-show in Game 1, although the lopsided spread would seem to indicate otherwise. In fact, neither team performed quite up to standards offensively in the series-opener - yet the final score still nearly eclipsed the total. Even the Lakers have room for impnrovement offensively. I expect a different story to unfold here on Friday night and we're being offered a very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-20 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Diego at 7:08 pm et on Friday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games to open this series with a grand total of 31 runs scored and the amazing thing is, were it not for some absent clutch hitting from the Padres in Game 1, that total could be much higher. Here, I expect more of the same as we should see the two overworked bullpens log plenty of innings in this third and deciding game. The Padres seem to still be uncertain of who will start this game but Mike Clevinger's name has been tossed around as he looks to return from an elbow injury. Jack Flaherty will start for the Cardinals. He simply hasn't lived up to expectations following a stellar 2019 campaign. While Petco Park has always been known as a pitcher's park, the Padres have certainly turned that idea on its head here in 2020. Look for the scoring barrage to continue on Friday evening. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:08 pm et on Wednesday. The opener of this series totaled 15 runs last night with the Yankees bats ambushing one of the best starters in baseball in Shane Bieber. Here, I look for a much lower-scoring affair as two veteran starters take the mound in a critical Game 2. Masahiro Tanaka was an All-Star for the first time since his rookie season in 2014 last year and actually improved on his numbers here in 2020. Tanaka posted more strikeouts per nine innings, fewer walks and fewer hits (all stats per nine innings). I look for him to keep an average Indians offense at bay on Wednesday night. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. He recorded his highest strikeouts per nine innings of his career during the regular season while also cutting his home runs allowed (per nine innings) virtually in half compared to last year. That's not to mention the fact he allowed his fewest hits per nine innings since the 2014 season. The Indians bullpen was solid down the stretch, recording a 3.59 ERA over the final two weeks of the regular season and while the Yankees 'pen wasn't nearly as good, I'm confident it can hold up against the Cleveland bats. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Titans v. Vikings OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. When you think Titans and Vikings the first thing that comes to mind might not be 'shootout' but I believe that's precisely what we're in for on Sunday afternoon. It's desperation time for the Vikings after suffering back-to-back beatdowns at the hands of the Packers and Colts. The good news is this matchup could play right into their struggling offense's hands - or more specifically the legs of RB Dalvin Cook. The Titans have had a tough time stopping the run in the early going this season, allowing a whopping 5.15 yards per rush to enemy backs. Here, we can expect them to have their hands full stopping Cook, while also missing some key cogs in their secondary, improving the chances of WR Adam Thielen going off. On the flip side, the injury-plagued Vikings defense isn't likely to slow an underrated Titans offense. Without DE Danielle Hunter the Vikes haven't shown any semblance of a pass rush and a clean pocket should serve Ryan Tannehill well in this one. Meanwhile, RB Derrick Henry should find plenty of room to run against a Vikes front that will be without LB Anthony Barr. Take the over (10*). |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA UNDER 60 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Middle Tennessee State and UTSA at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at the Alamodome on Friday night as I don't expect a shootout between the Blue Raiders and Roadrunners. Middle Tennessee is off to an 0-2 start, scoring a grand total of 14 points in the process. While this is certainly the Blue Raiders most favorable matchup to date, I'm still not convinced we'll see their offense get rolling. Note that in last week's 47-14 rout at the hands of Troy they scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the game was completely out of hand with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. UTSA won a wild 51-48 overtime game against Texas State in its season-opener but reverted to low-scoring form in last week's 24-10 victory over Stephen F. Austin. In that win, the Roadrunners didn't score a touchdown until two minutes into the second quarter. Impressively, their defense gave up just a single touchdown, that coming in the dying seconds of the second quarter. The last meeting between these two teams reached 70 total points but that was back in 2016. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | Top | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no question we're dealing with a high posted total in this one but it's high for a reason. I'm expecting a shootout. The Falcons draw a favorable matchup here, at least as far as their offense goes. The Cowboys only gave up 20 points in last week's loss to the Rams but the damage could have been much worse. Dallas is now even more undermanned after losing elite LB Leighton Vander Esch. Their secondary is a weak point, one that the Falcons should be able to take full advantage of. Even against a tough Seahawks pass defense last week, Falcons WR Julio Jones came up with 150+ yards receiving. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was under duress for much of the game against the Rams last week. We should see a different story unfold here, however, as the Falcons pass rush. While Atlanta has been tough against the run in recent years, it has had little success stopping the pass or containing opposing quarterbacks that can scramble. That plays right into the hands of Prescott and the up-tempo Cowboys offense, which should feast in its home-opener. After a relatively quiet opening week, look for the ultra-talented Dallas receiving corps to put up big numbers here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off tight, low-scoring series' and as a result we're dealing with a relatively low posted total on Saturday. I believe we'll see this series get off to a high-scoring start, and it may not be long before 5.5's are back on the board. While I have a lot of respect for both goaltenders in this series, there's also no question that they've played a tremendous amount of hockey over the last seven weeks or so. At some point you have to feel that they're going to suffer a bit of a lapse, even if it's brief. Meanwhile, both squads are loaded with offensive talent. We've also seen both teams show a knack for coming up with clutch goals and performances from their star players. I'm confident the losing side gets at least two goals in this contest, setting us up well with a play on the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-20 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in the Windy City on Monday night. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Minnesota. He was extremely consistent over the last three seasons but has struggled a bit here in 2020. Berrios' strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. He's handing out 4.2 free passes per nine innings compared to just 2.3 last season. Here, he'll face a White Sox lineup that's poised to take advantage of any and all mistakes as they rank 4th in the majors in runs per game and second in team batting average. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He has dropped both his ERA and WHIP compared to his rookie season a year ago but that's not saying much as he struggled mightily in 14 outings in 2019. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down while his walks are still up around four per nine innings and he's still getting tagged for just shy of two home runs per nine frames. The Twins rank T17th in runs per game but sit in the top half of baseball in team batting average, on-base percentage and on-base plus slugging. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team OVER 42 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting this to be one of the uglier games on the Week 1 slate, but I'm not so easily convinced. I actually believe we'll see some offensive fireworks as these two familiar NFC East foes square off in Washington. Philadelphia is going to have to play fast on offense in an effort to circumvent its own offensive line issues against Washington's tremendous pass rush. The good news for the Eagles is that Washington's defensive back-end is average at best and I believe the opportunity will be there for Philadelphia's underrated pass-catching corps to come up with some big plays downfield. On the flip side, I'm higher on the Washington offense than most. QB Dwayne Haskins is poised to take a step forward after showing plenty of improvement down the stretch last year. While its WR corps isn't deep, it has a bonafide gamebreaker in Terry McLaurin. And don't sleep on RB Antonio Gibson making something out of nothing in the backfield. The Eagles may be known for their tough defense but they take a hit this year with a number of key cogs no longer in uniform, including Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina UNDER 65.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and North Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most have this ACC opener pegged as a wild shootout between two offensive-minded teams in Syracuse and North Carolina. I feel the total has simply been set too high. The Orange certainly have a lot of work to do if they want to improve on last year's 5-7 squad that won just two games in ACC play. Their offensive line wasn't good and doesn't figure to be a whole lot better this year. The jury is still out on QB Tommy DeVito, who has shown flashes of brilliance but a real lack of consistency, albeit under duress most of the time. I do expect Syracuse to do a better job of keeping DeVito upright by leaning a little more on the ground game and the quick, short passing attack. The Tar Heels have a better defense than advertised as far as I'm concerned but they do have pass-funnel tendencies, particularly underneath, which could help keep the clock moving in this one. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Orange offense end many drives with 7's on the board as the Heels have an opportunistic defense that has the ability to tighten up in their own end of the field. The North Carolina offense is loaded. The strength of the offense is obviously their passing game with future NFL prospect QB Sam Howell and a talented group of wide receivers. The good news for Syracuse is that the strength of its defense is in the secondary where it boasts an experienced, underrated group. Like the Heels defense, the Orange secondary has also shown a knack for forcing turnovers. I believe we'll see the Orange do just enough to keep the Heels big play ability at bay for stretches. With a sky-high total, I'll call for enough stalled drives to keep this one 'under' the number. Take the under (10*). |
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09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL OVER 54 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between UAB and Miami at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Miami offense was absolutely dreadful a year ago, but perhaps that should have been expected (we noted the Canes offense would likely struggle right out of the gates in a season-opening play on the 'under' against Florida). We should see a different story unfold in 2020, however. QB D'Eriq King gives the Canes a bonafide veteran leader and star on offense. While the cupboard has been cleaned out in terms of the wide receiving corps, it's by no means bare. The Canes are loaded with speed all over the field on offense and King should have no trouble building a solid rapport with terrific TE Brevin Jordan. UAB's defense was terrific stat-wise last season, but that's playing most of its games against C-USA opponents. On the flip side, the Miami defense loses a number of key cogs after a strong 2019 campaign. I'm higher on the UAB offense than most. While the Blazers 45-point outburst last week came against an FCS squad in Central Arkansas, I saw plenty of positives, namely the performance of RB Spencer Brown, who ran for 127 yards and a score on 24 carries. He's in line for a big bounce-back season after playing hurt much of last year. In WR Austin Watkins Jr., the Blazers have a home run threat veteran QB Tyler Johnston can bank on as well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series was a complete landslide as the Lightning's top line absolutely went off and helped them roll to an 8-2 victory. Here, I expect a much different type of game to play out. It's important to realize that it was just one game. The Islanders are a well-coached team that has really come together during this playoff run and are certainly capable of bouncing back. With that being said, it's tough to stand in the way of the Lightning right now, given they're in top form having won five games in a row. I also have a lot of respect for Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who is quite simply one of the best goalies in the world right now. With all of that being said, I look for the Isles to make the necessary adjustments and do a much better job of containing Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point in particular on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay knows this isn't going to be a cakewalk and won't let down its guard defensively after the Game 1 blowout win. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't had much of a prayer of slowing down the Celtics multi-dimensional offensive attack during this series and as a result they're facing the prospect of elimination on Wednesday night. I don't expect the Raps to suddenly come up with an answer for the four-headed monster of Brown, Tatum, Walker and Smart on Wednesday. With that being said, I also don't expect to see Siakam and Lowry combine to make a paltry eight shots again either. The Raptors are the defending champions and as such, I don't think we'll see them go away quietly. This is the lowest posted total we've seen in this series so far, and I believe it will prove far too low on Wednesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Wednesday night. The Tigers are hot right now. They rank ninth in the majors in runs per game and 11th in team batting average. The Brewers find themselves at the back-end of most offensive rankings but I do think they can have some success at the dish here tonight. Spencer Turnbull has posted a solid ERA this season for the Tigers but a deeper look indicates he could be in for some rough waters moving forward. Turnbull is striking out fewer batters per nine innings than a year ago while issuing north of five walks - way up from his walk rate a year ago. Brewers starter Adrian Houser is nothing special having recorded a 4.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. The Tigers can get to him, and the Brewers bullpen here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total in this matchup since Game 1, despite the fact that the series-opener did manage to reach 219 total points (not much lower than the closing total of 224). I believe we'll consider to see the totals drop as this series progresses as we should be in for another relatively low-scoring affair (by today's NBA standards) on Wednesday. Keep in mind, both teams shot the ball pretty well, particularly from three-point range, two nights ago. As expected, Miami was able to slow down the Bucks pace, something I think we'll continue to see as the series goes on. The Bucks got punched in the mouth in Game 1 but I'm confident we'll see them punch back on Wednesday. But am I confident enough that I'm willing to lay a handful of points with them against a gritty Heat squad? Not a chance. Instead we'll focus on the total and call for a tightly-contested affair in Game 2. Take the under (10*). |
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09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers entered last night's action tied for first in the majors in runs per game but rather than back them at a steep price on Tuesday night, we'll instead play the 'over' as I'm confident the D'Backs will be able to pitch in with some offense as well. Alex Young will take the ball for the D'Backs. We've actually been fairly high on Young this season but he's shown signs of regression in recent starts. He has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing four home runs in just 13 1/3 innings over that stretch. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his hits allowed and his walks have started to creep up as well. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all up compared to last year. He has worked beyond the fourth inning just once in his last four starts. Take the over (10*). |
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08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair on Wednesday night as the A's and Rangers continue their series in Texas. Mike Fiers will take the ball for the A's. It's easy to forget that he was a 15-game winner a year ago. With that being said, W-L records rarely tell the whole story when it comes to MLB starting pitchers. There's a reason he wasn't in the running for the A.L. Cy Young. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down to a career-low 4.1. His walks are on par with a year ago (2.6 per nine innings - not a favorable number). He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings compared to a year ago. The Rangers may soon have to face the fact that Kolby Allard isn't cut out to be a big league starter. He owns a career 6.41 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up so far this season, so are his walks, home runs and hits allowed. The A's are capable of teeing off on Allard on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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08-24-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 216.5 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Miami at 6:30 pm et on Monday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point (by today's NBA standards at least). I look for some carry-over from Game 4 on Monday, however, noting that Saturday's game reached a series-high 239 total points. This is it for the Pacers. They'll be in desperation mode on Monday and they at the very least have proven they can score against Miami, having put up at least 100 points in all four previous games in this series. As for Miami, it managed to score 124 points despite shooting just 45% from the field in Game 4. The Heat were certainly aggressive, however, getting to the free throw line a whopping 52 times in that contest. Expect they to make a concerted effort to close out the Pacers here, leading to a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-20 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Kansas City on Friday night as we have an underrated pitching matchup between Jake Odorizzi and Danny Duffy. It may come as a surprise that Odorizzi was a 15-game winner a year ago, earning a spot in the A.L. All-Star team. He's had a bit of tough luck so far this season, giving up far more home runs than usual but his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down compared to his career year in 2019. He handled the Royals in a seven-inning double-header game last week and should find some success again here. Duffy has been a middle of the road pitcher over the course of his career but has shown signs of breaking out so far this season. His strikeouts have climbed to a career-high 10.4 per nine innings while his walks are a respectable 2.6 per nine innings. He has also given up a career-best 5.9 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). |
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08-20-20 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' on Thursday as the Reds and Cardinals match up in what has the potential to be a pitcher's duel. Sonny Gray will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season, building off what was a terrific 2019 campaign. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star and finished seventh in N.L. Cy Young voting last season. So far this year, Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up significantly while his walks are down. He's also allowing a career-low hits per nine innings. While we're certainly dealing with a small sample size, Cards veteran starter Adam Wainwright is off to a solid start as well. His strikeouts are down to 6.5 per nine innings but he's done an excellent job of limiting good contact, having yet to give up a home run and a career-low 4.1 hits per nine innings. Note that the Reds entered last night's action sitting tied for 19th in runs per game and 25th in team batting average. Take the under (10*). |
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08-17-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair between the Giants and Angels on Monday night in Anaheim. Tyler Anderson will take the ball for San Francisco. He has yet to make it more than five innings in any of his three starts this season. Note that Anderson's strikeouts per nine innings are way down from his previous work with the Rockies while his walks per nine innings are up significantly to nearly six. He'll have his hands full with the Angels lineup on Monday. Griffin Canning counters for Los Angeles. He didn't have a banner rookie campaign a year ago and has struggled again in early season action here in 2020. Like Anderson, Canning's strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up. He's also allowing two home runs per nine innings. Off a tough weekend series against the red hot A's, look for the Giants to do some damage at the plate tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Expect plenty of runners on base and ultimately runs on the board as the Braves and Marlins open their series in Miami on Friday night. Kyle Wright will take the ball for the Braves. He previously had a cup of coffee at the big league level over the last two seasons, making 11 combined appearances in 2018 and 2019. He struggled in those outings and has picked up right where he left off this year, recording a 6.75 ERA and 2.08 WHIP through 12 innings of work. After issuing a whopping 5.9 walks per nine innings in seven appearances last year he's inexplicably been even worse in limited work so far this season, handing out 7.5 walks per nine innings. Pablo Lopez will counter for Miami. His numbers this season are just fine, but he's worked just 10 innings and has a poor track record at the big league level. He posted an ERA north of five in 21 starts last season. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up through two appearances this year, so are his walks. In this matchup of two teams than rank top-10 in baseball in runs per game, I'll back the 'over' on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While both of these offenses are off to terrific starts this season, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' with the oddsmakers hanging out a generous total in Thursday's series finale. Chris Paddack will take the ball for the Padres. Few starters have been more consistent than Paddack in the early going this season as he has already worked 22 2/3 innings, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly compared to his rookie campaign last year, but so are his walks. In fact, he's handed out only three free passes so far this season. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has seen the 'over' cash in two of his first three starts but keep in mind, he's been opposed by the likes of Drew Smyly, Luke Weaver and Jeff Samardzija. Here, he's in line for a pitcher's duel with Paddack. Urias had his start pushed back a night as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts tries to manage workload during a 17-game in 17-night stretch. After posting a stellar 2.49 ERA in 37 appearances, mostly as a reliever, last year he's off to another fine start here in 2020, having recorded a 2.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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08-10-20 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a terrific start this season, currently running away with the A.L. West division lead. They've been doing it with solid pitching, sitting in a tie for third in baseball in runs allowed per game. They rank just 23rd in the majors in both batting average and slugging percentage and I'm not convinced they'll rack up a ton of runs in the opener of this series in Anaheim. Julio Teheran will take the ball for the Angels. He struggled in his debut with his new club but is certainly capable of bouncing back here, noting that he has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons as a member of the Braves. Like Teheran, A's starter Sean Manaea is also off to a tough start this season, albeit with a larger sample size. It is worth noting, however, that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. Keep in mind, he posted an incredible 1.21 ERA in just five starts last season. Two years ago he made 27 starts for the A's and recorded a solid 3.59 ERA. The Angels check in 24th in baseball in batting average and 17th in slugging percentage. Take the under (10*). |
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08-06-20 | Capitals v. Flyers UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 4:08 pm et on Thursday. I simply feel that this total will prove too high as the Caps and Flyers continue round robin action in Toronto. Washington is coming off a hard-fought loss against the Lightning in their opener. I look for them to tighten things up here after digging an early 2-0 hole that they had a tough time recovering from in that one. Brian Elliott is expected to start in goal for the Flyers over Carter Hart in a bit of a surprise move. I do expect the Flyers to react accordingly and play this one a little closer to the vest. Hart has moved into elite status in the NHL while Elliott is certainly on the downside of his career but you have to think he'll be motivated off Hart's 34-save performance last time out. What this boils down to is I don't think we'll see the same level of offensive output from the Flyers after potting four goals against Boston. Take the under (10*). |
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07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the 'under' in this matchup on Tuesday night, after we saw a whopping 19 runs cross home plate in last night's series opener. Kyle Wright has struggled in 11 career big league appearances for the Braves over the last two seasons but I expect to see him settle down after locking down the fifth spot in the Atlanta rotation with Cole Hamels still on the shelf. Wright rounded into form during Summer Camp and draws a reasonable matchup here catching the Rays off a big performance last night. Yonny Chirinos will counter for the Rays. He was late joining the Rays after testing positive for Covid-19 but by all accounts he's back to full health now. Chirinos is starting his third big league season after pitching well in both 2018 and 2019. Last season he allowed just 112 hits and posted a 114:28 strikeout to walk ratio in 133 1/3 innings of work. The Braves have been quite inconsistent at the plate in the early going this season with young slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. in particular struggling out of the gate. Take the under (10*). |
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07-24-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night at Progressive Field. While I'm not particularly high on Royals starter Danny Duffy, there's no question he's a 'serviceable' left-handed big league starter, and capable of keeping the Indians bats at bay here in the 2020 opener. The Indians really didn't do a lot to improve their order during the offseason and as will likely be a theme here early on, I expect the pitchers to be slightly ahead of the hitters in this odd July start to the campaign. Note that Duffy lasted at least six innings in both starts against Cleveland last season. Shane Bieber is the Indians undisputed ace, and would be an ace on most big league staffs to be honest. While he's still relatively early in his career, Bieber remains one of the more underrated starters in the bigs as far as I'm concerned. Bieber incredibly enters this campaign having worked at least into the sixth inning in 20 consecutive starts - a streak I look for him to continue here against the Royals. Kansas City does have some upside at the dish but once again, I'll take the pitchers over the hitters here in late July. Take the under (10*). |
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07-11-20 | New York v. Atlanta United OVER 3 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
MLS Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United at 8 pm et on Saturday. The MLS is Back Tournament has gotten off to a bit of a sloppy start but I'm anticipating an exciting, high-scoring affair between two of the league's best teams in New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United on Saturday night in Orlando. Atlanta was off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season prior to the Covid stoppage, scoring four goals in two matches. Meanwhile, New York had gone 1-0-1, also scoring four goals in the process. The last time these two squads met was last July, when they combined to score a whopping six goals in a wild 3-3 draw. We won't need that level of offensive production to cash our ticket on Saturday. Note that I'm personally playing this one over 3 goals to get the favorable plus-money return. Playing over 2 3/4 is also an option if you're looking for a little less risk but for grading purposes, we'll call it 3. Take the over 3 goals (10*). |
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07-02-20 | Napoli v. Atalanta OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ 3 goals between Napoli and Atalanta at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. Atalanta has seen at least five total goals scored in six consecutive matches and I look for that streak to continue against Napoli on Thursday. Grab the over 3 while you can but I would also play this one at 3.5. Note that Napoli is fresh off a 3-1 victory and hasn’t suffered a loss since the second week of February. The most recent meeting between Atalanta and Napoli finished in a 2-2 draw last October and current form indicates we'll see a similar result here. Both squads are capable of scoring in bunches and I certainly look for that here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Magic have exploded for 132 and 126 points in posting consecutive wins in Minnesota and Houston but I believe they'll be in for a stiffer challenge in Memphis on Tuesday. Going back to February 26th, Orlando has actually scored 130+ points on two other occasions as well, but those performances came against the T'Wolves (again) and the Hawks - one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Memphis has been playing pretty solid defensive basketball lately, save for a poor performance in Dallas last Friday. Outside of that, the Grizz have allowed 104 points or less in five of their last six games. Note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 54-15 going all the way back to 1996 when the total has been set at 220 or higher and both teams are coming off blowout wins (by 15+ and 20+ points). This trend has cashed at a 14-5 clip this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-20 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. With both of these teams playing the second of back-to-back nights (and both coming off losses), I don't think either will be looking to get involved in a track meet here. Keep in mind, the 76ers are down a couple of bodies in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Philadelphia allowed the Cavs to shoot 52.6% from the field in last night's upset loss in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Knicks shot better than 50% but still managed only 101 points against a bad Hornets team in Charlotte. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Sixers focus on the defensive end of the floor, and they've been outstanding in that regard here at home, giving up just over 102 points per game while holding the opposition to 43.8% shooting. The Knicks have held six of their last seven opponents below 50% shooting, which is a step in the right direction given their struggles this season. Away from home they're limiting the opposition to 46.4% shooting this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-20 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas UNDER 134.5 | Top | 58-83 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas at 9 pm et on Monday. Kansas enters this game having shot better than 50% from the field in back-to-back games, including a huge win at Baylor in a revenge spot on Saturday. Note that Oklahoma State hasn't allowed an opponent to shoot 50% from the field since back on February 1st against Oklahoma. That stretch includes a game in which the Cowboys held the Jayhawks to 38.9% shooting, albeit in a 15-point loss (that game totaled only 115 points). Note that the 'under' has gone 79-49 when Kansas comes off back-to-back games shooting at least 50% from the field going all the way back to 1997. The 'under' is also 16-5 when Oklahoma State comes off a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-20 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 238.5 | Top | 115-101 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' as the surging Pelicans head to San Francisco to take on the reeling Warriors on Sunday evening. Most will be expecting a track meet here, especially with the Pelicans coming off a 128-115 win and the Warriors off a 135-105 loss in their respective first games following the All-Star break. Note that the 'under' has gone 21-9 when the Warriors face an opponent with a losing record this season, with those games averaging just 113 total points. The 'under' has also gone 13-4 when the Warriors have lost at least four straight losses this season, with those games averaging right around 118 total points - again far south of the total we're working with. New Orleans has seen the 'under' go 131-99 when on the road revenging a same season loss. The Pelicans have allowed just one of their last 11 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards UNDER 230 | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind this lofty total but I feel it will prove too high on Tuesday night at Capital One Arena. The Bulls have not been the same team offensively on the road this season, where they rank 23rd in the league in offensive rating. On the flip side, they check in a very respectable ninth in defensive rating away from home. While Washington is known for its up-tempo offense, the fact is it sits middle of the pack in offensive rating at home (15th in the NBA). Not surprisingly, the Wiz are near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories but can the Bulls really take advantage? It's not as if Chicago has been performing well offensively in recent games as it ranks 24th in the Association in offensive rating over its last five contests. Take the under (10*). |
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02-06-20 | Spurs v. Blazers OVER 231.5 | Top | 117-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this key Western Conference showdown on Thursday night. The Spurs were a virtual no-show against the Lakers last time out (we won with Los Angeles in that game) but couldn't really be blamed as they were in a tough back-to-back spot after taking the Clippers down to the wire the previous night. Of course, the Blazers also got blown out in their last game, dropping a lopsided decision in Denver (we won with the Nuggets). Here, I expect both teams to show up and show out, offensively at least. Note that the Spurs rank ninth in the league in offensive rating on the road this season. The downside is they rank 26th in defensive rating away from home, with only the Hornets, Cavs, Hawks and Wizards - four of the league's worst teams - ranking worse. It's a similar story for the Blazers at home. They're fourth in offensive rating here in the Pacific Northwest but 27th in defensive rating with only the Pistons, Wizards and Cavs sitting below them - again, three of the league's weakest defensive teams. The last time these two teams met back in November they smashed this same posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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01-24-20 | Kings v. Bulls UNDER 219 | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Kings carry a reputation as being an up-tempo offensive team but that simply hasn't been the case, certainly of late. Sacramento ranks 19th in the league in pace rating over its last five games and 20th in offensive rating. Chicago has been even worse, sitting 23rd in offensive rating over that same stretch. It is worth noting that the Kings rank dead last in the league in defensive rating over their last five contests but that's certainly been baked into this total, and I'm just not sure Chicago is capable of taking advantage tonight. For their part, the Bulls sit in the top nine in defensive rating over that same time frame. Take the under (10*). |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 53 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Kansas City at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. Even after the Chiefs were involved in an 82-point game against Houston last week, I don't believe the oddsmakers have set the total high enough in this weekend's showdown with upstart Tennessee. RB Derrick Henry will get his for the Titans against a Chiefs defense you can certainly run on, particularly if run-stuffing DT Chris Jones can't go, as expected to be the case. But I don't believe nearly enough people are giving QB Ryan Tannehill any shot at keeping up with Pat Mahomes should this turn into a shootout. I'm actually confidence that Tannehill, who has been one of the league's most efficient passers down the stretch this season, can consistently move the football through the air, and come up with a handful of explosive plays should the Chiefs elect to sell out to slow down Henry. On the flip side, Tennessee doesn't generate nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to give it any hope that it can contain Mahomes in this one. As we saw in last week's game, albeit against an inferior defense, this Chiefs offense is capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. If the Titans come into this game thinking they can turn it into a slugfest, I think they will be sorely mistaken. I'm anticipating a shootout, just as we saw in the first matchup between these two teams this season. Take the over (10*). |
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01-11-20 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44 | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up perfectly as we're dealing with a relatively low total based on all four games last week staying 'under' the total and the fact that the 49ers reputation as a 'defense first' team preceeds them. That's not to mention the notion that the Vikings offense can only go as far as QB Kirk Cousins takes them and the belief that he's in line for a bad game after holding his own in New Orleans last week. I believe the potential is there for a shootout in Santa Clara as the Divisional Round kicks off on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers offense doesn't get nearly enough respect. This is one of the most creative offenses in the NFL today and with extra time to prepare I fully expect Kyle Shanahan's squad to pull out all the stops against a very beatable Vikings defense on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Vikings are riding high after playing a near-perfect road game in New Orleans last Sunday. I'm not a Kirk Cousins doubter. I'm confident we'll see him turn in another strong performance here with all of his weapons likely at his disposal with WR Adam Thielen expected to be good to go. The common narrative is that the 49ers defense is healthy now and poised to dominate the Vikings, but I'm not convinced it will play out that way on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 26-20 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a shootout waiting to happen as far as I'm concerned and I fully expected to see the total set well into the 50's so we're getting value playing 'over' the current number. The Vikings will likely be in comeback mode for much of the afternoon on Sunday but that should serve their offense well, with QB Kirk Cousins comfortable slinging it around in a dome setting and WRs Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen set to take advantage of a beatable Saints pass defense. While New Orleans has held up well against the run this season, it will undoubtedly have its hands full with a now-healthy Dalvin Cook, who should be a workhorse for the Vikes on Sunday. I don't think Minnesota has much hope of slowing the Saints surging offense, which didn't take its foot off the gas one bit in Week 17. That performance should serve New Orleans well as it rolls into this eruption spot against the Vikings. RB Alvin Kamara re-emerged as a threat both on the ground and in the passing game down the stretch and he should see plenty of usage in this matchup as well. The Vikes don't have anyone that can cover WR Michael Thomas, who is well-positioned to turn in the best performance of any receiver on Wild Card Weekend. Take the over (10*). |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn OVER 53 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Auburn at 1 pm et on Wednesday. This game has shootout potential as the upstart Golden Gophers challenge SEC stalwarts Auburn in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day. Minnesota actually put up some solid defensive numbers during the regular season but was certainly buoyed by a schedule that boasted few offensive juggernauts. There is plenty of reason to be confident in the Golden Gophers offense, however. QB Tanner Morgan threw for at least one touchdown pass in all 12 games this season. While RB Rodney Smith cooled off down the stretch, there's no question the Gophers backfield is capable of busting out here. Auburn took on all comers during the regular season, culminating with a 48-45 win over Alabama on November 30th. QB Bo Nix had his ups and downs and didn't throw multiple touchdown passes in any of his last five games. I do think he can take advantage of a middle of the road Minnesota defense here, however. I've been high on Tigers RB JaTarvious Whitlow all season. He wasn't given a heavy workload but showed flashes of brilliance, most recently running for 114 yards on 16 carries against Alabama. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets OVER 220 | Top | 104-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This has the makings of a track meet as the Nuggets visit the Rockets on New Year's Eve. Denver ranks tops in the league in offensive rating over its last five games while Houston not surprisingly has impressed in that regard as well, sitting in seventh. Meanwhile, the Rockets are just 20th in defensive rating while the Nuggets have fallen off in that department as well, sitting 19th over the same time frame. We'll see a contrast in styles here with the Rockets always looking to push the pace, and currently ranking ninth in the league in pace rating over their last five contests while the Nuggets sit 25th. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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12-24-19 | BYU v. Hawaii UNDER 64.5 | Top | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Hawaii at 8 pm et on Monday. When these two teams met a year ago they got into the 70's but I believe we're going to see a lower-scoring affair this time around and we're dealing with a lofty total approaching the mid-60's. BYU QB Zach Wilson appeared in eight games this season and threw more than two touchdowns on only one occasion - that coming against a horrible UMass defense. Meanwhile, Hawaii QB Cole MacDonald is a legend in his own right but had a bit of a tough time once the schedule toughened up this season, failing to throw for 300+ yards since way back on October 20th while throwing more than a single touchdown pass only once over his last six games. BYU is the better defensive team in this matchup but I do think Hawaii can hold its own in that regard here as well, noting that in the Rainbow Warriors most recent game - the MWC Championship - they didn't allow a touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half against Boise State. BYU held all 12 opponents to 27 points or less this season. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-19 | Hornets v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 | Top | 93-119 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Boston at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this total sets up on Sunday evening. The Hornets are coming off another high-scoring affair last night against the Jazz, due in large part to a track meet of a first half before things settled down later in the game. Note that the Hornets surprisingly check in ranked fifth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. The Celtics are top-10 in the league in that department over that same stretch, sitting in ninth. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks a miserable 29th in offensive rating over its last five games - despite that big scoring night on Saturday. Serving our purposes well, the Celtics are 25th in pace rating while the Hornets are dead last in the league in the same category over their last five contests. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-19 | UAB v. Appalachian State UNDER 48 | Top | 17-31 | Push | 0 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UAB and Appalachian State at 9 pm et on Saturday. My first look is usually to the 'over' in the New Orleans Bowl as we've seen plenty of shootouts on the fast track of the Superdome over the years. However, in this case, I believe we'll see a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers are calling for. UAB topped out at 38 points this season, and generally struggled offensively with some lackluster talent at the skill positions on offense. Keep in mind, the Blazers benefited from facing the likes of Akron, Rice and UTEP during the regular season - arguably three of the weakest teams in the nation. Here, they'll be facing a stiff challenge in Appalachian State. The Mountaineers could be forgiven for not being all that interested in this Bowl game. After all their head coach has bolted, and they just played in this same Bowl game a year ago, winning in a walk. Just not sure we're going to see a great deal of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs OVER 50 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Saturday. I probably don't need to tell you that this is a shootout waiting to happen on Saturday afternoon in Tampa. The Texans were expected to get involved in a shootout in Tennessee last Sunday but that matchup fizzled somewhat, with Houston ultimately securing a much-needed 24-21 win. Here, I don't think there's any chance of the offenses wilting as both groups are in tremendous position to light it up all afternoon long. Of course, Tampa Bay is missing its top two wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but that only serves to give us a lower total to work with here. QB Jameis Winston will continue to bomb away on his march toward the pass yardage title for 2019. Meanwhile, the Bucs ground game has the potential to also go off against a Texans run defense that is really struggling, giving up north of 4.6 yards per rush. Tampa Bay should be able to effectively limit the Texans ground game but I have full confidence in DeShaun Watson to do enough through the air (and with his legs) to help get this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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12-19-19 | Jazz v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We're getting a relatively low total to work with here (at least by Hawks standards) largely due to Atlanta's recent struggles offensively. However, the pace is still absolutely there as the Hawks check in fourth in the league in pace rating over their last five games, and here they catch a favorable matchup against a Jazz squad that isn't playing at the same level of defensive intensity as it was earlier this season. Note that Utah currently sits in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. On the flip side, the Jazz's offense has come on lately, ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch and they should certainly be able to keep it rolling against one of the worst defensive teams in the league in Atlanta. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans OVER 51 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Who would have thought we'd see a game between these two AFC South rivals feature a total north of 50? This is a series that generally features totals in the low-40s. Keep in mind, this will be the first of two matchups between the Texans and Titans in the next three weeks. Both defenses are shells of their former selves, largely due to a number of key injuries. Texans QB DeShaun Watson should have a field day against the Titans suddenly leaky, injury-plagued secondary, even if WR Will Fuller can't go. Meanwhile, QB Ryan Tannehill has earned a new lease on his football life in Tennessee and is set up nicely to tear apart a struggling Texans defense. Of course, RB Derrick Henry, who was plagued by a hamstring injury last week but still put up gawdy numbers, should be able to run wild against a Houston defense that has been particularly bad in recent weeks. It all sets up for a back and forth shootout in Nashville on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an unappealing Monday night matchup between two downtrodden NFC East squads. With that being said, I do think we'll see some offensive fireworks in this one. The Giants will trot out QB Eli Manning for what could be his last ride. While Manning does present a great deal of upside, I do think he can do some damage working with a strong group of receivers, not to mention a returning TE Evan Engram. Keep in mind, the Eagles secondary is bottom of the barrel as far as I'm concerned. On the flip side, this is a smash spot for Eagles QB Carson Wentz coming off a much-needed breakout against the lowly Dolphins last Sunday. Wentz's wide receiver corps is getting healthier and he has a two-headed monster to work with at TE in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Throw in dynamic rookie RB Miles Sanders and I'm confident we'll see the Philadelphia offense move the football and score at will against a weak Giants defense that doesn't generate any sort of pass rush. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is being pegged as a potential shootout based on the total we're working with but I don't expect this non-conference affair to play out that way on the field. The Ravens will be hard-pressed to match their last two performances, in which they scored 49 and 41 points against far inferior defenses in the Bengals and Texans. The Rams defense does match up well with the Ravens dynamic offense as they allow just 3.5 yards per rush this season and don't give up a lot of big passing plays downfield. Baltimore and QB Lamar Jackson in particular is certainly in line for a 'come back to Earth' game as it travels across the country for this primetime affair. On the flip side, there's little reason to have a lot of confidence in the Rams offense at this point. This is a unit that has underachieved due to injuries and otherwise all season long and that's unlikely to change against an underrated Ravens defense. Baltimore will give up yardage on the ground but I'm not convinced Los Angeles will be able to take full advantage. The Ravens have been generating a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have a shutdown tandem in the secondary capable of containing the likes of Kupp, Woods and Cooks. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. We're being given a favorable total here thanks to the Eagles low-scoring result in poor weather conditions at home against a suddenly punchless Patriots offense last week. Here, I'm anticipating a shootout as the Seahawks roll into the Linc to face the Eagles. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson should enjoy a ton of success against a very beatable Eagles secondary in this one. I continue to profess that Seattle's wide receiver duo (and now trio) of Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Josh Gordon is one of the most underappreciated units in the entire NFL. Also look for Seahawks RB Chris Carson to get involved heavily in the passing game in this one as the Eagles have had no success defending opponent's short passing attacks this season. On the flip side, likely forced into comeback mode for much of this game, I do expect a big game from Eagles QB Carson Wentz. The Philadelphia wide receiving corps is undermanned right now but it can involve the running backs and certain the tight ends, who draw a favorable matchup here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 54.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Northern Illinois' 31-28 win over Toledo last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night as the Huskies return home to host Eastern Michigan. I did like what I saw from the Huskies defense for the first three quarters in that game anyway. Northern Illinois allowed a touchdown with just under six minutes remaining in the first quarter against Toledo but then didn't give up any more points until a minute into the fourth quarter. The Huskies know they can't become complacent defensively in this one after giving up 21 fourth quarter points before kicking a game-winning field goal in the closing seconds last week. Eastern Michigan will certainly be up for this one, knowing that a win would make it Bowl eligible with a game to spare. Note that Northern Illinois has scored 24 points or less in six of 10 games this season. The Huskies put up 26 points the last time they faced the Eagles last season, but that was a stronger NIU squad that won eight games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Edmonton v. Hamilton UNDER 50.5 | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Hamilton at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both regular season meetings between these two teams went 'over' the posted total we're dealing with on Sunday and the Eskimos are coming off a wild, high-scoring 37-29 win over Montreal last week to earn a spot in this Grey Cup semi-final matchup. I'll gladly take the contrarian route, however, and call for a lower-scoring game than expected as the Eskimos and Tiger-Cats do battle on Sunday afternoon in Hamilton. Eskimos QB Trevor Harris has appeared in just two games since the first week of September but certainly looked to be in excellent form in last week's win over the Alouettes. He was afforded a clean pocket for much of the afternoon and took full advantage, completing 36-of-39 passes for 421 yards and a touchdown. The fact that he was only able to throw one touchdown was telling, however, as the Eskimos have struggled to finish drives with 7's on the board for much of the season. Here, look for Harris to be under duress all afternoon long as the Esks take a big step up in class against the Ti-Cats defense. Hamilton QB Dane Evans has done a tremendous job leading the offense since taking over the starting job for an injured Jeremiah Masoli, but I do wonder how he'll handle the big stage on Sunday. Note that the Eskimos defense will be getting their third look at Evans since September 20th. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 49.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it in on Sunday afternoon. The Saints got caught looking right past the Falcons last week as they could muster only nine points in a blowout loss, at home no less. This is an ideal bounce-back spot, however, as Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense should absolutely ether a weak Bucs defense. WR Michael Thomas has quietly been putting together a record-setting campaign and he should go off in this particular matchup. Meanwhile, the Saints defense is dealing with a number of key absences right now, the least of which being CB Marshon Lattimore, who would have likely shadowed Bucs standout WR Mike Evans. The New Orleans defense simply hasn't lived up to expectations this season and could be in for another rough ride against an increasingly aggressive Bucs offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall UNDER 55 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana Tech and Marshall at 7 pm et on Friday. Louisiana Tech has been absolutely mowing down the competition in C-USA play, but has also faced an extremely light schedule recently. Since the start of October, the Bulldogs have gone bye week, UMass, Southern Miss, UTEP and North Texas. Those four opponents represent four of the weakest defensive teams in the country. While the Bulldogs have absolutely scored at will over the last month, this is the same team that was held to 20 points against Grambling State and put up only 23 points at Rice. Marshall isn't likely to blow the doors off of Louisiana Tech here, and that should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for. The Thundering Herd were in an absolute smash spot offensively last time out against Rice, but could only muster 20 points. QB Isaiah Green has proven to be a game manager more than anything else, throwing for fewer than 270 yards in all but one game this season, while managing more than single touchdown pass on just three occasions. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-19 | UTSA v. Old Dominion UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UTSA and Old Dominion at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. The UTSA defense hasn't been performing well lately but has also faced the likes of UAB and Texas A&M in two of its last three games. Here, it takes a big step down in class against a punchless Old Dominion offense. The Monarchs battled hard but ultimately fell a touchdown short in a 24-17 setback at Florida International last week. ODU has now been held to 17 points or less in five consecutive games. The Monarchs haven't always been stout defensively this season but catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up and talent-shy Roadrunners offense. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 55 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Connecticut at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Navy's high-scoring win over Tulane last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Midshipmen hit the road to face lowly UConn on a short week. Last week's high-scoring result was certainly game script dependent as Tulane simply couldn't stop the Navy offense early on, digging a 24-0 hole just five minutes into the second quarter. From there things really opened up. I expect a different story to unfold here. Connecticut stunningly put up 56 points in a win at UMass last week but will face a much tougher challenge here. Note that prior to last week's performance, the Huskies had scored 22 points or less in five straight games and had topped out at 24 points, that coming in a season-opening win over FCS squad Wagner. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Tulane v. Navy UNDER 58 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tulane and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams combined to score 57 points in last year’s matchup – a narrow one-point Green Wave victory. I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair this time around. Tulane is fresh off a beatdown at the hands of Memphis last week. The Green Wave are certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that contest. Memphis went into that one highly-motivated after suffering its first loss of the season the week previous at Temple. Navy has been rolling along, scoring a whopping 114 points over the course of its current three-game winning streak. Keep in mind, those wins came against Air Force, Tulsa and South Florida. Just two weeks ago Tulane gave up only seven points in a blowout win over Connecticut, allowing the Huskies to gain just 134 yards through the air and less than 100 on the ground. This is obviously a much tougher matchup but my point is, the Green Wave are capable of stiffening up defensively. Remember, earlier this season they gave up just 24 points on the road against Auburn, holding the Tigers off the scoreboard for the entire first quarter and giving up just a single touchdown in the second half. Navy’s lone defeat this season came at the hands of aforementioned Memphis. After allowing a touchdown with just under 10 minutes left in the first quarter, the Middies didn’t give up another offensive touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. The Patriots offense is certainly banged-up right now with virtually their entire wide receiving corps nursing various ailments. I expect RBs Sony Michel and James White to be the focal point of the offense on Monday night at the Meadowlands, which plays into our hands as the ground game and short passing attack helps keep the clock moving. We can count on Bill Bellichick and more specifically CB Stephon Gilmore to take away the Jets best weapon through the air, that being WR Robby Anderson. New England will likely allow the Jets to pound away with RB Le'Veon Bell, but to limited success. QB Sam Darnold returned with a big game against the Cowboys last week, but look for him to come back to earth against a familiar divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This projects as potentially one of the highest-scoring shootouts of the entire season as both offenses come in ready to fully expose the weaknesses of the opposing defenses. The Rams secondary is an absolute mess right now and don’t let their early week acquisition of CB Jalen Ramsey steer you otherwise. Ramsey hasn’t suited up since September and now comes in following a limited week of practice with his new team. His reward will be lining up against Falcons all-world WR Julio Jones who is finally in line for a big breakout performance on Sunday. While the Falcons have been awful in the win-loss column, their offense continues to churn along with QB Matt Ryan posting monster numbers. Nothing changes against the Rams truly disappointing defense this week. On the flip side, we’ve also seen the Rams offense sputter due in large part to the inefficiency of QB Jared Goff, not to mention their offensive line’s inability to pass-protect. That should change here as the Falcons defense has done nothing to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Given a clean pocket I’m confident Goff can tear apart this struggling Falcons defense. After last week’s debacle it’s unlikely the Rams will lean heavily on their ground attack here, instead electing to attack the Atlanta defense through the air. Count on big performances from Kupp, Woods, Cooks et al as this one develops into a back-and-forth shootout. I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-19 | TCU v. Kansas State UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Kansas State at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Things really got away from TCU in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 49-24 decision on the road against Iowa State. I look for the Horned Frogs to do a much better job of controlling proceedings against Kansas State on Saturday and that lends itself to a much lower-scoring affair. Keep in mind, that game against Iowa State essentially turned on a Cyclones defensive fumble return for a touchdown three minutes into the second quarter. Offensively, TCU has shown flashes of brilliance but those flashes have been few and far between. QB Max Duggan has been inconsistent at best, passing for over 200 yards only once, that coming in comeback mode against Iowa State. There's no question, the Horned Frogs will face a tough challenge in the form of Kansas State's defense on Saturday. After dropping back-to-back conference tilts against Oklahoma State and Baylor, in blowout fashion no less, this is obviously a huge game for the Wildcats. Like TCU, Kansas State's offense has been less than impressive. At home against Baylor, Kansas State didn't find the end zone until there were less than seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The good news is, in that same contest, the 'Cats held Baylor out of the end zone until the final seven minutes of the first half. This was a defensive struggle last year with TCU prevailing 14-13. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-19 | Toledo v. Ball State OVER 57 | Top | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Ball State at 2 pm et on Saturday. This matchup was no contest a year ago as Toledo rolled to a 45-13 win. As the line would indicate, this should be a far more competitive affair, and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring game. Ball State has reeled off back-to-back wins after starting its campaign with a 1-3 record. The Cardinals have already been involved in some shootouts. They can beat you through the air and on the ground with little talked about RB Caleb Huntley absolutely going off over the last two games, rushing for 309 yards on 64 carries. The touchdowns haven't come just yet (he has just five through six games this season) but it's only a matter of time. QB Drew Plitt has been bombing away, attempting at least 32 passes in five of six games to date. He has already tossed 13 touchdowns. The Cardinals will need all of that offense and then some against a Toledo squad that will be in a sour mood after scoring just seven points in a loss at Bowling Green last week. Keep in mind, the Rockets entered that game sporting a 4-1 record, having scored 145 points over the course of a four-game winning streak. Rockets RB Bryant Koback has already ran for at least 177 yards on two different occasions this season and should have a field day against the Ball State defense on Saturday. Toledo admittedly has questions at QB after Mitchell Guadagni suffered an injury last week but it's not as if he's been setting the MAC on fire. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Syracuse at 7 pm et on Friday. Most are expecting a shootout in this Friday night ACC tilt but I'm looking for a different story to unfold at the Carrier Dome. Pittsburgh is coming off a wild, high-scoring 33-30 win at Duke last time out. Keep in mind, the Panthers built a huge 26-3 lead in that contest and actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. They sagged late and let the Blue Devils stage a furious rally, even giving up the lead in the fourth quarter before securing the win with a late touchdown. That should only amp up their concentration on the defensive side of the football in this one, and I see this as a manageable matchup against an inconsistent Syracuse offense. Note that earlier this season, Pitt didn't give up a touchdown against a powerful UCF offense until the final five minutes of the first half. Syracuse is coming off a tough 16-10 loss at N.C. State last week. The Orange are off to a frustrating 3-3 start. QB Tommy DeVito has looked terrific at times but has been far too inconsistent. 11 of his 12 touchdown passes have come in three games and he has also thrown five interceptions. Syracuse's ground attack has been equally inconsistent. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on this field last October we saw the total settle out around 54 points. That game failed to eclipse that number but here I look for a different story to unfold, at a more favorable number for ‘over’ bettors. The Chiefs defense is a mess. They’re allowing well north of five yards per rush this season, which sets up especially well for the Broncos two-headed backfield attack featuring Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. The Broncos won’t shy away from pounding the football in an effort to chew up the clock and effectively shorten this game, but I’m confident they’ll break off enough big runs to finish drives with touchdowns on the board. Given the Chiefs highly disappointing and virtually non-existent pass rush, oft-criticized Denver QB Joe Flacco should be able to find some success through the air in this one as well. Kansas City obviously possesses an elite offense, even if it isn’t going to match the numbers it put up during an incredible 2018 campaign. This is an admittedly tough matchup against a quality Broncos defense but off back-to-back losses, you can be sure the Chiefs offense will come out swinging and WR Tyreek Hill certainly looked no worse for wear in his first game back from injury last Sunday. Bettors are very hesitant to play the ‘over’ in this one due to the Broncos knack for getting involved in low-scoring games but that only serves to give us value with the total being set lower than it should be in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-13-19 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams were involved in tightly-contested affairs last Sunday and while both games went 'over' the total, neither contest was a shootout. Here, I believe the potential is there for a shootout as the Bengals try to stay competitive, and should have a good shot at doing so against an injury-plagued, and struggling Ravens defense. On the flip side, this is a tremendous opportunity for the Baltimore offense to run wild against an awful Bengals defense. Teams have absolutely steamrolled Cincinnati on the ground this season and few teams are set up better to do exactly that than the Ravens. QB Lamar Jackson is coming off a good but not great performance in an overtime win over the rival Steelers last Sunday. Look for him to find the going a lot easier in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Connecticut v. Tulane UNDER 58.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Connecticut and Tulane at 3:45 pm et on Saturday. Connecticut was in a terrific spot to earn its second win of the season last week as it hosted an injury-plagued South Florida squad at home. Not only did the Huskies fail to win that game, they got blown out by a 48-22 score. Their lone victory this season came against FCS squad Wagner at home back in Week 1. Things won’t get any easier as they travel to face upstart Tulane here, noting that UConn has topped out at 24 points – that performance coming against aforementioned Wagner. Tulane was involved in a surprising shootout against Army at West Point last Saturday, prevailing by a 42-33 score. That was actually the Green Wave’s second consecutive shootout win after defeating Houston 38-31 two weeks previous. I don’t think Tulane will be interested in getting involved in another high-scoring affair here. Remember, earlier this season we saw the Green Wave give up just 44 points over a three-game stretch that included a road date with Auburn (they gave up 24 points in that loss). This is a ‘win and move on’ type of situation for the Green Wave and that sets up well for us with an ‘under’ ticket in hand. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I absolutely love the way this play sets up on Monday night in Santa Clara. The Browns are coming off an offensive explosion on the road against the division rival Ravens last week but don't count on a repeat performance here. Cleveland came up with the perfect gameplan for that matchup, focusing on quick passes and run plays to beat up on an undermanned and struggling Ravens defense. Now the Browns stay on the road and travel across the country for a matchup with the upstart (and undefeated) 49ers, who have gotten some tremendous defensive play in the early going this season. While the Browns defense is in for some regression here, I do think their defense can hold up well against everyone not named George Kittle on Monday night. Kittle will get his, but look for the Browns 'D' to do a nice job of containing the Niners offense as a whole. Cleveland is getting a little healthier on the defensive side of the football and it matches up well with the middle-of-the-road San Francisco offense. This total has everything to do with the Browns high-scoring result last week and the early season thinking that the Niners would be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Neither angle is really in touch with reality at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -112 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're looking at a low total here largely due to the fact that these two teams have just two wins between them and both have been wildly inconsistent, and downright awful at times, on the offensive side of the football. I do have confidence in the quarterback play on both sides, however, and think this total should be set in the 50's - noting that last year's meeting produced north of 60 points in a Georgia Southern blowout. I do anticipate a more competitive affair here. South Alabama has the pieces in place on offense for a breakout with QB Cephus Johnson making strides and showing his ability to move the football on the ground and RB Tra Minter one of the most overlooked and underrated running backs in the country who is also capable of contributing big plays in the return game. Georgia Southern should have little trouble moving the football with QB Shai Werts leading the charge. The Jaguars possess one of the weaker defenses in the nation and didn't have a hope of slowing the Eagles offense last season. I don't see much changing here for the Jags on the defensive side of the football. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants OVER 48.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Redskins ugly, turnover-fueled blowout loss to the Bears on Monday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Washington will certainly be taking a step down in class against the Giants defense, which has been repeatedly abused by opposing offenses this season. There’s no help coming for the G-Men in that department, in fact things could get even worse due to injuries at the linebacker position. Meanwhile, the New York offense got a major boost from rookie QB Daniel Jones last Sunday in Tampa and he’s primed for another big performance here. We saw New York TE Evan Engram absolutely explode against the Bucs last week and we can count on more of the same against the Redskins weak pass defense here. Even with the absence of all-world RB Saquon Barkley, look for the Giants offensive resurgence to continue for another week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 67 | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Nebraska at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘over’ in Ohio State’s last road game, a 51-10 win at Indiana two weeks ago. While I do expect to see another strong showing from the Buckeyes defense, I also look for Nebraska to feed off the energy of a raucous home crowd and at least hold their own defensively for a stretch in this one, which will be enough to keep the final score ‘under’ the inflated total. It’s hard to imagine any Ohio State total not being inflated at this point as the Buckeyes have scored an incredible 214 points through four games, looking virtually unstoppable in the process. I simply see this as the game where things settle down a little bit. I’m not sure Ohio State is interested in getting involved in another shootout with the Cornhuskers after narrowly escaping with a 36-31 victory in this matchup last November. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Panthers v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Panthers likely to be without QB Cam Newton and both of these teams coming off relatively low-scoring ‘under’ results last week, we’re being given a very reasonable total to work with here. I’m actually anticipating a bit of a shootout to develop here and will gladly play the ‘over’ at the number being offered. Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen doesn’t really represent much of a downgrade from Newton considering how hobbled Cam looked in the early going this season. The Panthers still possess an excellent wide receiver corps not to mention one of the best running backs in the league in Christian McCaffrey. This is an excellent breakout spot for the Panthers offense against a Cardinals defense that has looked awful without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford roaming the secondary. Carolina was expected to take a big step forward defensively considering the personnel moves it made in the offseason but so far, not so good as it has allowed opposing rushers to gain over 4.5 yards per rush and has by no means been a shut down unit against the pass. The Cardinals had a tough draw against the Ravens defense in Baltimore last Sunday but should bounce back here at home. Kyler Murray has turned in back-to-back 300+ yard passing games to open his career and he and WR Larry Fitzgerald should have a field day against the Panthers defense on Sunday afternoon. Don’t forget about Cards RB David Johnson either, who should have little trouble tuning up the Panthers struggling run defense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia UNDER 58.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Georgia at 8 pm et on Saturday. The last time these two teams met back in 2017 they combined to score just 39 points in a one-point Georgia victory. While many are expecting a much higher-scoring affair this time around, I don’t see it. Yes, Notre Dame is fresh off a 66-point explosion against New Mexico but the Lobos are one of the country’s weakest teams. Prior to that the Irish had their hands full on the road against Louisville, eventually pulling away for a 35-17 win. Georgia has taken full advantage of a fairly weak early-season schedule, scoring a combined 148 points in wins over Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. Defensively, the Bulldogs haven’t really been tested but there’s no question this is an elite group. The same goes for the Irish, who save for a couple of lapses have been rock solid through two games. They did give up 17 points against a mediocre Louisville offense in Week 1, but it’s worth noting that after giving up two touchdowns in the game’s first 11 minutes, they held the Cardinals out of the end zone the rest of the way. Over their last 7+ quarters of action the Irish have allowed just two touchdowns. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Auburn v. Texas A&M OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show |
CFB SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Auburn and Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This matchup didn’t develop into a shootout last year as Auburn prevailed by a 28-24 score. I do think the potential is there for this year’s meeting to play out a little differently, however. Auburn didn’t exactly come roaring out of the gates this season, needing a big fourth quarter rally to outlast Oregon by a 27-21 score back in Week 1. The Tigers followed that up with an unimpressive 24-6 win over Tulane but then got loose for a 55-16 rout of Kent State last Saturday. I believe that explosive performance last week, in which they scored two offensive touchdowns in three of four quarters, was just what the doctor ordered heading into this showdown. Texas A&M turned in a similar performance last week, blowing the doors off FCS squad Lamar 62-3. I liked the way the Aggies kept their foot on the gas in that contest, even scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns when the game was already completely out of hand. They may need all the offense they can get against Auburn this week. Texas A&M has actually held up quite well defensively through three games, although the loss to Clemson certainly could have been much worse had the Tigers not eased up after building a big second half lead (not to mention the fact that Clemson is still finding its offensive rhythm. Given the early season schedules, we really don’t know exactly how good either of these defenses are. I have more faith in the offenses ability to produce at this stage of the season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State OVER 55 | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 1 m | Show |
CFB MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Air Force and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We saw a shootout between these two teams last year as Boise State prevailed by a 48-38 score in a wild contest. I expect more of the same as the Falcons and Broncos do battle on Friday night in Boise. We won with Air Force in its outright underdog victory on the road against Colorado last Saturday. That win didn’t come easy as the Falcons coughed up a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter before winning in overtime. This is an experienced Air Force offense that is operating at a high-level running the option. Remember, in its season-opener it put together five touchdown drives in the first half alone, albeit against FCS squad Colgate. Here, the Falcons know they’ll need to put 7’s on the board on most drives in order to keep up with the Broncos. Boise State is off to a perfect 3-0 start this season but after scoring 36 points in its season-opening win at Florida State, it has sputtered a bit, scoring 59 points in its last two wins over Marshall and Portland State, both at home. The last time we saw the Broncos on national TV they managed only 14 points in the victory over Marshall. I look for them to find a lot more success moving the ball against a middle-of-the-road Air Force defense. I liked the way Boise State worked sophomore dual-threat QB Chase Cord into the action last week against Portland State. He essentially took over the game late, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. His presence gives the Broncos offense another element that Air Force will need to prepare for after really struggling defensively in this matchup a year ago. Credit Boise State for giving up just 17 points in its last two games but I don’t believe those results necessarily mean its defense is elite. As a single-digit favorite at home, I don’t think we’re going to see the Broncos run away and hide in this one, and that lends itself to a high-scoring affair on the blue turf. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane UNDER 56.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and Tulane at 8 pm et on Thursday. We’ve split a couple of totals plays on games involving Houston this season, playing the ‘over’ on both occasions. Here, I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Cougars travel to face upstart Tulane. Despite scoring 92 points through three games this season, the Houston offense really hasn’t been all that imposing. In their opener at Oklahoma, the Cougars didn’t find the end zone until less than five minutes were left in the first half. They turned in a terrific stretch of offensive football early against FCS squad Prairie View A&M the next week but didn’t reach the end zone after the game’s first 20 minutes. Last Friday night against Washington State the Cougars put together two touchdown drives in the second quarter but didn’t find the end zone again until there were two minutes left in the fourth quarter. You get the picture. Tulane is coming off a 58-point explosion last week, but that came against FCS squad Missouri State. Note that the Green Wave have yet to have a quarterback throw for more than 200 yards or anyone rush for 100 yards in their first three contests. Tulane has taken care of business against the opponents it should but scored just six points in its lone loss, a 24-6 setback at Tulane two weeks ago. The Green Wave defense has been as good as advertised, giving up just 40 points through three games, including only 24 at the Hands of Auburn. In that game against the Tigers, they held QB Bo Nix to just 19-of-37 passing for 207 yards and limited lead rusher JaTarvious Whitlow to less than 100 yards on the ground. Houston took this matchup in blowout fashion last year, 48-17. I’m anticipating a much tighter affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The Seahawks got more than they bargained for at home against the Bengals last Sunday but did manage to pull out a 21-20 victory. The fact that they allowed only 20 points in that contest was a flattering result based on how their defense actually played on the field. The Steelers defense took a beating at Foxborough last Sunday night, suffering an ugly 33-3 loss. This is a more favorable draw at home facing a Seahawks team traveling from the west coast but I still expect Pittsburgh to give up its share of points in this one. Look for strong performances from QB Russell Wilson and WR Tyler Lockett in as Lockett matches up tremendously well and will be eager to rebound following last Sunday’s no-show (the Bengals defense keyed on him early and never let up). The Steelers were taken completely out of their gameplan last Sunday night as they fell behind early and never recovered. I don’t believe there’s any reason to panic, however, as Pittsburgh boasts a loaded offense that should thrive in this matchup. RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster are two of the game’s best players at their respective positions and JuJu in particular should have no trouble breaking loose against a weak Seattle secondary, which in turn should set things up nicely for Conner in a game where he should see heavy usage. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State v. Mississippi State OVER 52 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas State and Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State has feasted on a couple of inferior opponents to open the season, rolling to a 49-14 win over Nicholls State and a 52-0 shutout of Bowling Green. I like the way the Wildcats have gotten off to extremely fast starts, putting together five scoring drives in the first quarter of their first two games, including four offensive touchdowns. That’s certainly a promising start following a dismal offensive campaign a year ago. Ball State transfer RB James Gilbert has been a bright spot, racking up 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. QB Skylar Thompson, albeit against inferior opposition, has seemingly found some rhythm, completing 26-of-35 passes for 363 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Now the Wildcats face a tougher test in SEC opponent Mississippi State, but I do think Kansas State can still keep it rolling offensively. Note that in the Bulldogs toughest test to date, they allowed 28 points against Louisiana-Lafayette. Last week they gave up only 15 points against Southern Miss, and none until less than five minutes were left in the third quarter but it is worth noting that the Eagles drove into Mississippi State territory in two of their first three drives, missing a field goal on one and giving up a fumble on another. Once the Bulldogs build a sizable lead Southern Miss completed abandoned its gameplan and couldn’t get anything more going on offense. Here, I’m obviously anticipating a more competitive affair and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring game between two offenses that have been very efficient in the early going. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 49 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Wake Forest at 6 pm et on Friday. Wake Forest is coming off back-to-back high-scoring games (and ‘over’ results) to open the season but I look for this particular contest to be lower-scoring than most are expecting. The Demon Deacons have played two below-average defensive teams in their first two games, Utah State and Rice. Their offense has certainly clicked, putting up a whopping 79 points already but here they’ll face a tougher test in the form of 2-0 North Carolina. The Tar Heels have allowed just 45 points through two games against South Carolina and Miami, so it’s not as if they’ve played FCS pushovers. Against the Gamecocks, UNC gave up a touchdown with just over three minutes left in the first quarter but then held them out of the end zone until there was just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Last week, the Tar Heels didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the final 25 seconds of the first half against Miami. On the flip side, the Demon Deacons defense has been up and down but did settle in last week (admittedly after Rice lost its starting quarterback to injury), holding the Owls scoreless in the second and third quarters before allowing a garbage time touchdown once the game was out of hand in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With North Carolina playing on a short week off back-to-back tightly-contested victories, I don’t think it will have any interest in getting involved in a shootout here. Tar Heels QB Sam Howell has attempted exactly 24 passes in each of the first two games. North Carolina has proven capable of controlling the clock by moving the football on the ground and I’m anticipating a similar gameplan here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Most of the trends may be pointing to a relatively low-scoring result between these winless NFC South rivals on Thursday night, but I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks and believe the total will prove too low. The Bucs couldn't have looked much worse in last week's season-opening 31-17 loss to the 49ers. That game was pegged as a shootout but it never materialized due in large part to four Tampa Bay turnovers. QB Jameis Winston obviously needs to be better if the Bucs are to have any shot at upsetting the Panthers on Thursday night and I'm confident he will be. Note that after being held to less than 20 points in five straight meetings, Tampa Bay scored 28 and 24 points in two matchups with Carolina last year. Virtually all of the Bucs key pieces on offense are healthy entering this game after WR Mike Evans was slowed by illness last week. TE O.J. Howard and WR Chris Godwin in particular are due for strong bounce-back performances here as Tampa Bay likely finds itself in catch-up mode for most of this game. I fully expect to see the Carolina offense move the football and score at will on the Tampa Bay defense in this one. The Bucs pass rush was completely non-existent against the 49ers last week and while San Francisco wasn't really in great position to take full advantage, Carolina will be. Cam Newton should have little trouble bouncing back from an uneven performance last week with a clean pocket to work with on Thursday night. RB Christian McCaffrey draws an extremely favorable matchup as well, noting that he ran for 185 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries against Tampa in two meetings last year. We saw an absolute snooze-fest last Thursday night but I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with Boise State but missed with the 'under' in the Broncos come-from-behind win over Florida State in what turned out to be a true road game due to Hurricane Dorian last week. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on the total here as Boise welcomes C-USA opponent Marshall on Friday night. All indications are that the Broncos have no interest in getting involved in another wild, high-scoring shootout here. Head coach Brian Harsin has been emphasizing tackling, ball security and field position in advance of this game (which will be played on a short week after that grueling affair in Tallahassee). It's worth noting that despite allowing 31 points against the Seminoles, Boise State did show the ability to play sound defense for an extended stretch, holding a better offense than they'll face on Friday scoreless over the game's final 34 minutes. Offensively, the Broncos didn't find the end zone in that game until there were just over four minutes left in the first half. Marshall put up 56 points in a blowout win last week, but that came at home against FCS squad VMI. I'll also point out that the Thundering Herd didn't score a touchdown in that game until just over three minutes remaining in the first quarter. The game essentially turned on a punt return touchdown less than two minutes later. From there, the floodgates opened. I certainly don't expect the Broncos defense to wilt the same way the Keydets' did last week. Credit the Marshall defense to limiting VMI to only 201 passing yards last week, not easing off even after building the insurmountable lead early. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While I can understand the logic behind so-called 'sharp' money coming in on the 'under' in advance of Thursday's season opener in Chicago, I'm confident going the other way and calling for a relatively high-scoring affair between these NFC North rivals. The Packers offense should only improve with QB Aaron Rodgers back healthy and Mike McCarthy and his awful play-calling having been ushered out the door. The Matt LaFleur era is about the get underway and despite the fact that Rodgers didn't see a single preseason snap, I'm confident this offense can get off to a positive start, even against a vaunted Bears defense. Chicago's pass rush and run defense are obviously stellar, but I am confident that Rodgers can be granted enough time in the pocket to improvise if necessary and should have little trouble finding his stellar but perhaps unheralded group of receivers against what should be an overmatched Bears secondary. We know what we're going to get from WR Davante Adams as he's a bonafide star in this league. However, I also look for a big game from Geronimo Allison here as he looks to build off what he and Rodgers built during his rookie campaign. Chicago's offense gets severely overshadowed by its tremendous defense but I actually expect big things from this unit in year two under Matt Nagy. RB David Montgomery is the real deal and will be running behind a terrific offensive line that returns all five starters from a year ago. While Montgomery should be in for a big game (note the Packers inexplicably let their best run stopper DT Mike Daniels go in the offseason), I also think we'll see Mitchell Trubisky take another big step this season after throwing 24 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions last year. The WR duo of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller doesn't get a lot of hype but they're capable of going off against a beatable Packers secondary. I actually do have a lot of respect for the Packers defense, and in particular their re-tooled pass rush but I'm not sure we'll see them firing on all cylinders right out of the gate and they face a stiff challenge trying to penetrate the aforementioned Bears o-line while also giving the proper amount of attention to the rookie Montgomery. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-19 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With ideal hitting conditions weather-wise and a matchup of two veteran starters winding down their careers and not pitching particularly well, I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field. Felix Hernandez will take the ball for Seattle. He has made two starts since returning from injury, giving up eight hits and five earned runs, including three home runs, in only 10 2/3 innings of work. He sports an ERA north of six and a 1.42 WHIP in limited action this season. Jon Lester counters for Chicago. He owns a 4.36 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and comes into this one in wildly inconsistent form having allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last six starts. Mixed in that stretch was a home start against Oakland in which he gave up 10 hits and 11 runs, nine of them earned, over just four innings right here at home. Count on plenty of offensive fireworks on Tuesday night in the Windy City. Take the over (10*). |
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08-27-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series produced a 1-1-1 o/u mark just last week in Minnesota but we did cash the lone 'over' result - a game that produced a whopping 18 runs. Michael Pineda was on the hill for the Twins in that game and he'll take the ball for them again tonight. Note that his 11 road starts have averaged just shy of 11 total runs per game this season. The White Sox will be getting their fourth look at Pineda this season and had their best game against him last week, plating four earned runs in seven innings in that aforementioned 14-4 loss. Lucas Giolito tossed a rare complete game shutout against the Twins last week. There's really not a lot negative I can write about the White Sox ace. I will point out, however, that the Twins will be seeing him for the fourth time since June 30th and have had some previous success against him. The last time they faced him here in Chicago they racked up seven earned runs in five innings in a 10-3 victory. Minnesota also scored seven earned runs off of Giolito in his final start against them last season. Note that the Twins average well north of six runs per game on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Steelers v. Titans OVER 40 | Top | 18-6 | Loss | -105 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday Night Football Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Tennessee at 8 pm et on Sunday. We came up just short with our ‘over’ play in the Titans loss to the Patriots last Saturday (we won with New England in that game) but I feel the same play is warranted as they stay home to host the Steelers this week. The Titans offense looked terrific early in that game against New England, scoring a pair of first half touchdowns. That was encouraging when you consider the Patriots have put a strong emphasis on taking care of business on the road this August after going 3-5 away from home last regular season. I’m confident the Titans offense can be efficient and effective once again here. The Steelers haven’t exactly unleashed their offense in the preseason with QB Ben Roethlisberger and others having yet to see a single snap. I do expect them to open things up a little more here, however, as they try to gain some rhythm before all of the regular starters likely sit in their preseason finale next week. It’s worth noting that QB Mason Rudolph has done a nice job as he battles for the backup job, completing 15-of-23 passes for just shy of 170 yards and two touchdowns through two games. Even Devlin Hodges has gotten in on the action, throwing touchdown passes in each of the Steelers first two games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Montreal v. Toronto UNDER 55 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 12 noon et on Sunday. I really like the way this total sets up as the Alouettes and Argos do battle in a neutral site game in Moncton, New Brunswick Canada on Sunday. The Als are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Calgary last week, ultimately pulling out a 40-34 win in overtime. Keep in mind, Montreal didn't score a touchdown until the third quarter in that game and ultimately scored just two offensive touchdowns in regulation time. In its three previous games it had scored a grand total of just 57 points so this is by no means an offensive juggernaut. Likewise, the Argos failed to score a touchdown until the third quarter in last week's 41-26 loss to the Eskimos. We have seen some positive signs from the Toronto offense in recent weeks but I believe it will be in tough against a somewhat underrated Als defense that has held the opposition to just 26.5 points per game on 313 passing yards and 95 rushing yards per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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08-20-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night as the Cardinals won by a 3-0 score. I'm anticipating more in the way of offensive fireworks on Tuesday, however. Gio Gonzalez will take the ball for the Brewers. He's obviously on the down side of his career and his numbers reflect that this season. Gonzalez has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing seven earned runs in 13 innings over that stretch. He's been tagged for four home runs while issuing seven walks over his last two trips to the hill. Michael Wacha will counter for St. Louis. He has recorded an inflated 5.44 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season and hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning since way back on June 28th. In Wacha's last two outings he has given up eight earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos OVER 41.5 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -109 | 154 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Monday Night Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between San Francisco and Denver at 8 pm et on Monday. Both the 49ers and Vikings are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs in their respective preseason openers last week. I expect a different story to unfold as they square off in Denver on Monday night, however. The Broncos didn’t give up much in the first half of their loss to the Seahawks, but they were facing Geno Smith. Here, they’ll face a better group of quarterbacks, noting the 49ers essentially split the game between Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard last week (we won with the Niners in that 17-9 victory over Dallas). WR Jalen Hurd was an early preseason breakout candidate, scoring a pair of touchdowns in the win over Dallas. Denver’s offense has yet to really get going through two preseason games, but we did see some more positive signs last week in Seattle as rookie QB Drew Lock settled in to throw for 180 yards and a touchdown on 28 pass attempts. Joe Flacco made a cameo appearance and completed 3-of-4 passes for 19 yards. The 49ers defense really wasn’t tested in last week’s game against Dallas, which is known for its conservative offensive play in the preseason under Jason Garrett. Look for Denver to expose the San Francisco defense a little bit here. Take the over (10*). |
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08-16-19 | Edmonton v. Toronto OVER 50.5 | Top | 41-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on July 25th but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in the rematch. Since posting that 26-0 win over the Argos, the Eskimos have struggled to put points on the board, scoring just 34 points in splitting games against the Stampeders and Redblacks. With that being said, they do continue to march the football up and down the field with QB Trevor Harris completing 62-of-82 passes for over 700 yards over the last two games alone. I'm confident the Eskimos can get their groove back offensively against a weak Argos defense here. On the flip side, we saw Toronto gain a ton of confidence in a come-from-behind 28-27 win over the Blue Bombers two weeks ago. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson broke loose in that game, throwing for 343 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 44 yards. There's no question the Eskimos are a formidable defensive opponent, but are they as good as they've been in the last three games, where they have given up just 36 points? I'm not so sure. Take the over (10*). |
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08-16-19 | Dolphins v. Bucs OVER 43.5 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -121 | 82 h 2 m | Show |
NFLX Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and Tampa Bay at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I’m anticipating a preseason shootout as the Dolphins and Buccaneers renew their exhibition rivalry on Friday night. The Dolphins offense found the end zone four times in last week’s win over the Falcons. I really like the Miami quarterback rotation as far as preseason standards go with Josh Rosen, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jake Rudock. Rosen threw for just shy of 200 yards on just 13 completions last week but didn’t find the end zone so he’ll certainly be motivated to get a little more in-sync with his receiving corps here. I like the fact that Rudock did throw a touchdown in the fourth quarter in last week’s contest. The Miami defense wasn’t all that impressive, allowing Atlanta to score offensive touchdowns in three of four quarters and execute three consecutive scoring drives in a four-minute stretch late in the first half. The Bucs are expected to take a big leap forward offensively under the guidance of head coach Bruce Arians this season. They certainly looked good in last week’s narrow 30-28 loss in Pittsburgh. It took just one drive for Jameis Winston and Chris Godwin to hook up for a touchdown score. QB Ryan Griffin is doing everything he can to pass Blaine Gabbert in the depth chart, throwing for 330 yards and a score in last week’s loss. Expect to see a little more out of Winston and the Bucs offensive starters in this one, which certainly bodes well for our ‘over’ play. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-19 | A's v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 103 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Homer Bailey will take the ball for Oakland. He got roughed up last time out, allowing seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. While Bailey does own a winning record this season, he hasn't pitched well, posting a 5.54 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Likewise, Giants starter Tyler Beede has also struggled, recording a 5.61 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He has given up at least four earned runs in four straight starts, allowing 32 hits in just 19 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 1:05 pm et on Monday. I'll keep my analysis brief in the interest of time as this total was just released this morning. The O's are riding high following a wild, come-from-behind 8-7 win over the Astros yesterday and I look for them to have continued success offensively against James Paxton and the Yankees on a hot and humid afternoon in the Bronx. Meanwhile, the Yankees bats were relatively silent against the Jays over the weekend but should have little trouble bouncing back against Gabriel Ynoa and his 5.57 ERA here. Note that the Yanks just faced Ynoa back on August 5th and he didn't make it through the fifth inning. Take the over (10*). |
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