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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-06-21 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll call for a high-scoring game at Guaranteed Rate Field on Sunday afternoon. The White Sox will be getting their second look at Tigers right-hander Jose Urena this season. He did last seven innings in a 5-2 victory against them back in late April but it's not as if he was dominant. Urena gave up seven hits, walked three and struck out only two over those seven frames. Note that he owns a 5.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in six daytime starts this season. Likewise, the Tigers 'pen has struggled in daytime appearances, recording a collective 4.90 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Worse still, the Detroit bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a 6.46 ERA and 1.66 WHIP on the road this season. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. The Tigers will be seeing him for the fourth time since last August. Cease has posted an ERA near eight to go along with a 1.76 WHIP over his last three outings. He also owns a less than impressive 1.60 WHIP in four daytime starts this season. The White Sox bullpen has posted a collective 4.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in day games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. Regardless whether Joel Embiid is able to suit up for the 76ers or not, I like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 1 in this Eastern Conference semi-final series on Sunday. The Hawks cruised past the Knicks in round one but should find the going much tougher against the 76ers in round two. Note that Philadelphia checks in 32-7 at home this season where it has held opponents to 45% shooting this season. The 76ers have been locked in defensively for quite some time, having allowed just two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field going all the way back to April 26th. I'm not convinced the pace alone in this series is going to get many games up into the 220's. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the Sixers last three games, we haven't seen the 'over' cash in four straight games involving Philadelphia since way back in late February-early March when it posted a four-game 'over' streak. The Hawks, meanwhile, are a better defensive squad than most give them credit for. Trae Young and his sharp-shooting abilities grabs the headlines, but this team can play some 'D', as evidenced by the fact that it has held eight straight opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse entering this series. After allowing 126 and 127 points in consecutive losses to the Sixers here in Philadelphia in late April, you can be sure Nate McMillan's squad will be hyper-focused on keeping the Sixers offense in check here. I simply feel we're going to see a much different series than we saw between Philadelphia and Washington, which was high-scoring in nature. Note that the 'under' cashed in two of three regular season meetings between these two teams. The Hawks check in sporting a 26-44 o/u mark when revenging consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 35-16 with the 76ers playing at home after a game that saw 235 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday. This one sets up nicely as a high-scoring affair after last night's low-scoring 4-2 Reds victory in the series-opener. Luis Castillo will somewhat inexplicably get another turn in the Reds rotation despite his massive struggles this season. Castillo has posted an 8.73 ERA and 1.81 WHIP on the road this season lasting less than five innings per start. The Cards have already seen him twice this season, lighting him up to the tune of 12 earned runs on 14 hits in just 8 1/3 innings. Behind Castillo is a dreadful Reds bullpen that entered last night's game sporting a collective 8.28 ERA and 1.88 WHIP on the road this season. Kwang-Hyun Kim will counter for St. Louis. He's labored through his last three starts, posting a 5.14 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He has actually pitched quite well at home, however, and those last three outings came on the road. But here's my concern; Kim averages just under 4 2/3 innings per start this season. The Cardinals bullpen has not been good, entering last night's game with a 6.21 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over their last seven contests. They own a 5.11 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at night this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Dream v. Lynx OVER 162.5 | Top | 84-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Friday. Minnesota has yet to break 80 points in a game this season but I look for that streak to end on Friday night as the Lynx host the Atlanta Dream. It's really only a matter of time before this supremely-talented Lynx squad gets rolling offensively. Offseason acquisition Kayla McBride has yet to really emerge as the scoring threat she was in Las Vegas but it's coming. Note that she has still managed to score in double-figures in four of five games this season. Meanwhile, they welcomed back Napheesa Collier two games back and she's contributed 25 points to go along with eight assists since returning. Here, I expect the Lynx to take advantage of a below-average Dream defense. Atlanta checks in off three straight 'over' results even though the most recent was aided by overtime last Saturday in New York (we won with the Dream in that game). Atlanta's offense has slowly come around this season and while losing sharp-shooting guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurts, they are expected to welcome back big offseason acquisition Cheyenne Parker from Covid protocols on Friday. I also expect highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald, who has struggled in the early stages of her WNBA career, to pick up some of the slack, likely receiving more playing time in Carter's absence. Note that three of the last five meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, including the most recent matchup which reached 167 points on August 28th of last year. Take the over (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 207 | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Game 5 managed to stay 'under' the total mostly due to its noncompetitive nature. The first quarter was actually fairly high-scoring but things got completely out of hand from there with Phoenix cruising to a 30-point victory. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair as the scene shifts back to Los Angeles for Game 6 on Thursday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-1 with the Suns coming off a win by 20 points or more this season with those contests totaling an average of 237.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Phoenix coming off two or more straight wins this season with those games averaging 225.2 total points. While there are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers, the majority of those trends have resulted in average totals north of the relatively low number we're working with here tonight. Note that Lakers home games have totaled an average of 217.9 points this season. That includes a number of games where they were without both Lebron James and Anthony Davis. While Davis' status for Thursday's game remains in question, I would expect him to play. Even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Round Two Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. If the Hurricanes are going to have any chance at getting back in this series they're going to need to break through against Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. With the scene shifting to Tampa for Game 3 on Thursday night, I expect them to do just that. Note that the last four times the Lightning have played after posting consecutive road victories, they've gone on to allow a whopping 6.0 goals per game with those contests totaling an average of 9.3 goals. We're talking about a small sample size, but the point is still worth making. Also note that the 'over' has gone 17-7 the last 24 times the Lightning have come off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, with those games totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina's road games have been considerably higher-scoring than its home games this season, averaging a total of 6.0 goals. Lightning home games have averaged an identical 6.0 goals as well. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' has gone 27-17 with the Canes playing on the road with a total of 5.5 under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. We've now seen four consecutive 'under' results in games between these two teams. I believe both have too much offensive firepower for that trend to continue much longer. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants OVER 6.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Giants pulled away late for a 6-1 victory. Of course that result would actually be enough to get Tuesday's game 'over' the very low posted total. I believe it will prove to be too low. Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Angels. We won with the 'over' in his most recent outing against the Rangers. He has posted an inflated 7.71 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over his last three starts and has seen the 'over' cash at an 8-1 clip in his nine starts to date this season. Given the fact that he averages just five innings per start we're likely to see plenty from the Angels bullpen in this one. They have posted a collective 4.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road this season (entering yesterday's action). They gave up another two earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in yesterday's loss. Left-hander Alex Wood will take the ball for the Giants. While he has been solid overall this season I will point out that the Angels are averaging 5.3 runs per game against southpaw starters this season with those games totaling an average of 11.2 runs. Wood's home numbers do jump off the page but just one reason for caution (and why my play on the Giants is of the 8* variety), three of his four home outings have come against the Marlins, Rockies and Rangers - three subpar offensive clubs, particularly on the road. We likely won't need much from the Angels offense to help this one 'over' the low total. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 226 | Top | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Denver at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams on Sunday afternoon as the Nuggets simply couldn't get back up for Game 4 after staging an upset win in Game 3. Here, I look for a return to this series' high-scoring ways as the scene shifts back to Denver for Game 5. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Blazers coming off an 'under' result this season with those games totaling an average of 235.8 points. We've also seen the 'over' go 17-6 with the Blazers playing on the road off a double-digit win over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 235.1 points. On the flip side, the 'over' has gone 20-9 with the Nuggets coming off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 229.5 points. With Denver coming off a loss of any kind this season, the 'over' has gone 18-8 with an average total of 228.1 points scored. I look for both teams to come out aggressively in this pivotal Game 5 as they lean on their strengths with the Blazers averaging 116.9 points per game on the road and the Nuggets putting up 117.2 points per game here at home and noting that the 'over' has gone 7-4 in the last 11 meetings in Denver. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-21 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday as the Twins prevailed 3-2 in extra innings. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Michael Pineda will get the call for the Twins. He was sharp against the Orioles in his most recent start last week and his overall numbers are solid this season. With that being said, he's certainly prone to giving up the long ball, having been tagged for nine home runs in eight starts this season, including seven in his last five starts. Now he pitches at hitter-friendly Camden Yards. His recent numbers against the O's are positive but he hasn't faced them here in Baltimore since 2016. In six career starts at Camden Yards he has been tagged for 20 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. Working behind Pineda is a Twins bullpen that owns a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP (entering yesterday's action) on the road this season. Bruce Zimmermann remains in the Orioles rotation only because they have no better options right now. To say that he's struggled would be an understatement. He owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.84 WHIP here at home and like Pineda, has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, allowing home runs in four straight and eight of nine career big league starts. Note that he'll be facing a Twins club that actually produces better on the road, where it averages north of five runs per game this season. With Zimmermann unlikely to work deep into this game that means we should see plenty from the O's down-trodden bullpen, which entered yesterday's game having posted an 8.31 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over its last seven games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 225.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in the first three meetings in this series but I look for a reversal of that trend on Monday night. After consecutive subpar defensive efforts, the Grizzlies need to step up at that end of the floor here in Game 4. They're certainly capable of doing so, having allowed 110.5 points per game on 45.6% shooting here at home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 23-15 clip. Note that Memphis has allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a double-digit loss at home over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going 13-4 along the way. The 'under' is also 13-2 with the Grizzlies playing at home in just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with those contests averaging a total of 216.7 points. Likewise, the Jazz have posted a 26-41 o/u record when playing their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.4 points on average. Donovan Mitchell's return has essentially turned the tide for the Jazz in this series. In what is basically a must-win game for the Grizzlies, look for them to do a better job of limiting his opportunities. Offensively, Memphis is in tough as it has now shot 45% or worse from the field in six of its last seven contests, perhaps showing a bit of a fatigue after going all-out down the stretch to earn a playoff spot. Note that the Grizzlies have scored over 110 points in four straight games entering Monday's contest, their longest such streak since April 14th to 19th. In their next game after that previous four-game streak they managed only 105 points and produced an 'under' result against the Clippers. Take the under (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We're only one game into this series but as good as a defensive team as they are, I think the chances of the Islanders slowing down the Bruins 'Perfection Line' of Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak are slim to none. While David Pastrnak managed a hat trick in Game 1, he easily could have had a couple more goals as well. When the dust settled, the Bruins shook off some early rust and cruised to a 5-2 series-opening victory. New York generally carries a defensive mindset under head coach Barry Trotz but here I think it knows it will have to turn up the offensive volume in order to stay in this series. It's worth noting that the Isles have managed to score at least four goals against the Bruins on three different occasions this season. While they faced a different challenge in round one, they scored four goals in both games where they were coming off a loss, as is the case here. Note that the Isles have allowed 3.4 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. The Bruins have been a terrific positive momentum play here at home, averaging 3.8 goals per game after winning two or more games in a row over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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05-30-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
NBA on ABC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point with the 'under' cashing in two of three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon, however, as the Suns look to punch back at the Lakers off consecutive losses. Note that while Phoenix is an excellent defensive team, it's road games have still averaged nearly 225 total points this season. Likewise, the Lakers rate as one of the league's best defensive squads, but games here at Staples Center have still reached an average total of nearly 219 points. Two regular season meetings between these two teams here totaled 218 and 233 points. The fact that there was two days off between Games 3 and 4 is key for the Suns as they need Chris Paul's shoulder to heal up as he's clearly been off in the last couple of games. He's obviously still not going to be at 100% but I do expect him to contribute more than he did in the last couple of games and it's certainly worth noting that despite his struggles, Game 3 still went 'over' the total and Game 4 fell short by just a handful of points. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Suns coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 225 points. The 'over' is also 40-26 with the Suns playing consecutive road games over the last two seasons, producing an average total of 227.1 points. There are a number of trends pointing to the 'under' when it comes to the Lakers but in virtually all of those situations, the average total has gone 'over' the relatively low number we're working with today. Take the over (10*). |
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05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 224 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Saturday. |
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05-28-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair in the opener of this series last night as the Mariners cruised to a 5-0 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however. Jordan Lyles will take the ball for Texas. The Mariners will be getting their fourth look at the veteran right-hander since last August and they've teed off on him so far, to the tune of 16 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings. While Lyles has pitched reasonably well over his last few starts he still checks in sporting an inflated 6.99 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in night starts this season, averaging less than five innings per start. That spells trouble considering the Rangers bullpen has been a mess, entering last night's action with a collective 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP on the road this season. They proceeded to allow three earned runs on five hits over four innings in last night's game. Justus Sheffield will counter for Seattle. Like the Mariners with Lyles, the Rangers will be seeing Sheffield for the fourth time since last August. They've already faced him once this season, scoring five earned runs on 10 hits over five innings in a 10-2 victory on May 9th. Sheffield has really struggled lately, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over his last three starts with the 'over' cashing in all three of those. Like Lyles, he has also struggled at night, recording a 6.00 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 27 innings. Prior to last night's contest, the Mariners bullpen had posted a collective 6.03 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over their last seven games. Expect plenty of offense on the board tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Wings v. Dream OVER 163.5 | Top | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Thursday. I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair between the Wings and Dream on Thursday night. Dallas has suffered back-to-back losses since opening the season with a blowout win over the Sparks in Los Angeles. The Wings offense continues to perform at a reasonably high level, however, scoring 94, 97 and 81 points through three games. Arike Ogunbowale is an underappreciated star in the making, having scored 52 points over the last two games. Marina Mabrey has also stepped up over the last two games, pouring in 48 points. Here, the Wings should be able to get rolling once again versus a middle of the pack Atlanta defense. While the Dream check in eighth in offensive rating that's largely due to a slow start to the season. They're coming off back-to-back victories, scoring 83 and 90 points in the process. The return of Tiffany Hayes has sparked the charge and she's coming off a 26-point effort in a win over Chicago. I'm still waiting for the backcourt tandem of Chennedy Carter and rookie Aari McDonald to go off. McDonald is coming off her best performance of the young season having scored nine points in 17 minutes against Chicago. Dallas ranks in the bottom half of the WNBA in terms of defensive rating and I expect the Dream to take advantage and push the pace here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday The Braves got the better of the Red Sox in the opener of this series last night, notching their fourth straight victory and handing Boston its second loss in a row following a four-game winning streak. That was a low-scoring contest with just four total runs scored. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Drew Smyly will get the start for Atlanta. He has pitched reasonably well on the road this season, posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, but his three quality road outings have come against the Nationals (twice) and Brewers - two subpar offensive clubs. In his other road start he was lit up by the Blue Jays, allowing five earned runs in just four innings in a 13-5 loss. Note that Boston checks in 10-5 against left-handed starters this season. Behind Smyly is a Braves bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a collective 4.92 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the road this season. Nick Pivetta will counter for Boston. He's been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox, going 5-0 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's been at his best here at Fenway Park where he owns a 3.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with the Sox winning four of his five starts. However, here he'll face a Braves team that should be quite familiar with him from his days with the N.L. East rival Phillies. Pivetta's last three starts against the Braves have resulted in 17, 11 and 10 total runs. Pivetta generally only works around five innings per start and while the Red Sox bullpen has been solid, it will face a tough challenge against a deep Braves lineup that is seeing the ball well right now. Take the over (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Lakers v. Suns OVER 208.5 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw an incredibly low-scoring game (by today's NBA standards) in the opener of this series on Sunday as the Suns cruised to a 99-90 victory. I certainly expect to see the Lakers punch back on Tuesday night but Phoenix isn't going to roll over and has proven to be an incredibly efficient offensive team here at home this season, averaging 116.1 points per game on better than 49% shooting. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Suns coming off two or more consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 225.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 13-4 with the Suns coming off four or more straight victories over the last two seasons with an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. As for the Lakers, they've seen the 'over' cash at a 49-26 clip the last 75 times they've played on the road off a loss against a division opponent. Look for an answer from Lebron and A.D. off an off day on Sunday but the Suns should do their part to help this one 'over' the total as well. Take the over (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This has turned out to be a very high-scoring series with three of the four games totaling seven goals or more. I expect things to tighten up considerably now that the series is all knotted at two games apiece, however. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 10-2 with the Hurricanes at home off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.3 goals. For the Preds part, the 'under' has gone 11-3 when they play on the road after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. Despite the high-scoring nature of this playoff series, the 'under' remains 8-6 in the last 14 meetings in this series while five of the last seven matchups here in Raleigh have also gone 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-23-21 | Everton v. Manchester City UNDER 3 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
English Premier League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Everton and Manchester City at 11 am et on Sunday. We won with Everton in its 1-0 victory over Wolverhampton on Wednesday but missed with Man City in its last match - a stunning 3-2 loss against Brighton and Hove after it was handed a red card and forced to play a man down for the game's final 80+ minutes. Here, Man City has little to play for other than to try to get back on track prior to the Champions League Final against Chelsea next Saturday. We're not likely to see Man City's best lineup but it certainly has the depth to put forth a strong effort in its EPL home finale, regardless who it sends to the pitch on Sunday. While Everton still has much to play for as it tries to qualify for the Europa League - even if it is a longshot at this point. The Toffees need to take care of business and likely get all three points here and also receive some help. Their best chance likely comes by keeping this match level for as long as possible and hope for a late breakthrough with Man City shifting its focus to next Saturday. The problem for Everton is it has managed just four goals in its last six matches combined. It has scored more than a single goal just once in its last 14 matches - that coming against a poor Tottenham defense in a 2-2 draw on April 16th. Off a uncharacteristically high-scoring affair against Brighton, look for Man City to settle things down here and regain its positive form heading into the Champions League Final. Take the under (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams last night in Dunedin and I expect more of the same on Saturday. As expected, games played here in Dunedin have been generally high-scoring this season with the 'over' cashing at an 11-7 clip and an average total of nearly 11 runs. Shane McClanahan will take the ball for the Rays on Saturday. As opponents get more tape on the left-hander we're starting to see him struggle. Over his last two starts he has allowed seven earned runs on 10 hits over just 9 1/3 innings of work after he had given up only two earned runs in eight innings in his first two big league outings. The Jays are rolling along offensively right now having scored seven runs or more in four of their last five games. Robbie Ray will counter for Toronto. He's made great strides in terms of his command this season, issuing only two walks over his last five starts after handing out nine free passes in his first two outings. However, it seems to have come at the expense of his ability to keep the ball in the park. Ray has been lit up for 10 home runs in his last five starts, spanning 30 1/3 innings. The Rays have exploded offensively of late, scoring seven runs or more in six consecutive games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 226.5 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Milwaukee at 2:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams just met last Saturday with Milwaukee cruising to a 122-108 victory. That game stayed 'under' the total but this time around we're dealing with a considerably lower number. I believe it will prove too low. The Bucks can pretty much put up 120 points per game here at home in their sleep. They check in ranked seventh in the league in floor percentage here at home and third in possessions per game. Milwaukee also ranks third in the NBA in total rebounding percentage here at home - a big advantage over a Heat squad that ranks 19th in rebound rate on the road - which should allow it to push the pace here. I do believe Miami can afford itself some extra scoring opportunities in transition here as well given it ranks seventh in the league in steals per defensive play on the road and Milwaukee sits in the bottom half of the league in turnovers per possession at home. The 'under' cashed in three of five games in last year's playoff series although I would take that with a grain of salt as those contests were played in unique circumstances in the bubble in Orlando. While the 'under' went 2-1 in three regular season meetings this year - all three games actually went 'over' the number we're dealing with at the time of writing. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-16 | Win | 103 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Mariners offense is coming off a miserable series against the Tigers which included being no-hit for the second time this season. Perhaps a change of scenery will serve them well. They'll be getting their third look at Padres starter Chris Paddack since last August. The last time they faced him here in San Diego they touched him up for six earned runs over just five innings in an 8-3 victory. Note that the 'over' is 11-2 in Paddack's last 13 starts with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5 runs with those games totaling an average of 10.6 runs. Chris Flexen will take the ball for Seattle. The 'over' has cashed at a perfect 8-0 clip in his eight career road starts as an underdog with those contests reaching an average total of 13.0 runs. Both bullpens are solid, but with neither starter showing the ability to work deep into ball games (Flexen averages around 5 2/3 innings per start while Paddack lasts just 4 1/3 innings on average), there's a good chance they get over-extended in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 222 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen the defense ramp up during the NBA Play-In Tournament and I expect that to continue on Friday night as the Grizzlies face the Warriors for the fourth time this season - this time with a playoff spot hanging in the balance. All three previous matchups have gone 'under' the total. In fact, eight of 10 meetings between these two teams over the last three season have gone 'under'. You would be hard-pressed to find two teams more locked in defensively right now. The Grizzlies have held six of their last seven opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse. On the flip side, however, Memphis has shot 44.4% or worse from the field itself in each of its last three contests. The Warriors have been even better than the Grizzlies defensively, holding 10 of their last 11 opponents to 46.5% shooting or worse. Memphis has seen the 'under' cash in seven of its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is an incredible 13-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road seeking revenge for a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 208.4 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 the last eight times the Warriors have come off a road loss by three points or less, as is the case here, with those contests reaching an average total of just 213.1 points. With everything to play for on Friday night, I'm expecting a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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05-20-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We've already seen 20 runs cross home plate in the first two games of this series and I expect more of the same on Thursday afternoon. Note that the Astros check in averaging 5.4 runs per game in day games this season and north of six runs per contest over the last week. Meanwhile, the A's average 5.0 runs per game in day contests and prior to getting shut down by Zack Greinke last night, they had plated six runs or more in three of their last four games. Here, the A's will get their third look at Astros starter Luis Garcia since last September. Garcia was solid in his first outing against the A's but in his next he didn't record a single out, issuing three walks before allowing a grand slam in the first inning. Note that Garcia owns a 4.61 ERA on the road this season where he averages fewer than five innings per start. That opens the door for an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.30 ERA on the road this season. Cole Irvin has posted solid overall numbers for the A's this season but again, there's some familiarity here as the Astros will face him for the third time this season. They've already touched him up for 12 hits and eight earned runs in 9 2/3 innings of work. Note that the A's bullpen entered last night's game having recorded a collective 7.30 ERA against division opponents this season and a 4.59 ERA here at home. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Central Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game to open this series on Monday night as the Hurricanes cruised to a 5-2 victory. The Predators know they don't have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of high-scoring environment, however. Keep in mind, they average just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while the Hurricanes allow only 2.1 goals per game on home ice. We should see a better defensive effort from the Preds here as they've given up just 2.6 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the 'Canes have posted an 8-19 o/u record the last 27 times they've been leading a playoff series, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go an incredible 13-1 when Carolina plays at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. Finally, note that the 'under' is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams here in Raleigh and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Sky v. Dream OVER 159 | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams turned in 'under' result in their season debuts with the Sky cruising to a 70-56 win over the Washington Mystics and the Dream falling by a 78-67 score against the Connecticut Sun. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in Atlanta, however. Note that the 'over' is still 16-3 in the Sky's last 19 road games with those contests averaging a total of 170.8 points. Better still, the 'over' has gone a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Chicago has played consecutive road contests with those games totaling an average of 171.4 points. Much will be made about who is missing for the Sky in this one as both Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson are expected to miss. Keep in mind, both of those usual key contributors struggled in their season-opener, scoring a combined 11 points on a miserable 3-of-17 shooting. Their absence should simply mean more shots for the likes of Candace Parker and Kahleah Copper, who poured in 19 points in Chicago's season-opening win, showing the potential to build off of last year's breakout campaign. Atlanta saw four of five starters scoring in double-figures in its season-opening loss to Connecticut. That was certainly a tough matchup, as is this one, but I do look for improvement from the Dream offensively after they turned the ball over 13 times against the Sun. Highly-touted 2021 draft pick Aari McDonald struggled in her WNBA regular season debut after looking good in limited preseason action, scoring just one point on 0-for-4 shooting against the Sun. Expect the backcourt duo of McDonald and Chennedy Carter to make some noise in this one. Going back to the preseason, it's worth noting that the Sky and Dream check in T3rd and 5th, respectively, in terms of pace rating. The most recent meeting between these two teams resulted in 186 total points last September. Take the over (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a one-sided game between these two teams to open this series last night, with just seven total runs scored - all coming from the Padres. While I look for San Diego to turn in another fine showing at the plate, I think Colorado can help us along in terms of getting 'over' the low total on Tuesday as well. These same two pitchers, Austin Gomber and Blake Snell, matched up last week in Colorado with the Rockies prevailing by a 3-2 score but I expect a different story to unfold here. Gomber has already logged a lot of innings in his first year with the Rockies and we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy play out. In four road outings, Gomber has posted an ugly 7.56 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, averaging just five innings per start. That opens the door for the Rockies dreadful bullpen to potentially be forced into extended duty on Tuesday, noting that unit entered last night's action sporting a collective 9.39 ERA over their last seven games. Gomber continues to struggle with his command having posted a walk rate north of 12% while also giving up a ton of fly balls, to the tune of a 30.9% fly ball rate - more than 7% higher than the MLB average. Blake Snell has had his own issues with command, also recording an inflated walk rate - a staggering 15.2%! Snell has been terrific here at home, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but averaging less than five innings per start. It's certainly worth noting that the Rockies have gone 6-4 against left-handed starting pitching (compared to 9-23 against righties). Colorado is hitting .282 against southpaw starters this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. There are a number of factors that lead me to believe we're in for a high-scoring affair in Anaheim on Monday night. The Indians will certainly be eager to bring an end to their three-game skid and get back on track at the plate. This looks like an ideal spot to do just that against a poor Angels pitching staff. Patrick Sandoval will get the start for Los Angeles on Monday - his first of the season after being used as a long reliever. Sandoval has yet to figure it out at the big league level, posting a career 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In 7 1/3 innings of relief duty this season he has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 92.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably north of the MLB average. He's struggled to keep the ball in the park throughout his career, posting an ugly 5.3% home run rate, which is 1.8% higher than the MLB average. Rookie Sam Hentges will counter for Cleveland. He was never able to perform particularly well at the minor league level and now his struggles have carried over to the big leagues as well. Opponents are hitting .316 off of Hentges in 13 2/3 innings this season and he's posted a 32.6% fly ball rate and 6.4% home run rate. He was bailed out time and time again by the Cubs in his last start but I don't think he'll be so fortunate here. Both teams possess struggling bullpens. The Indians got off to a great start in that department this season but have taken a negative turn lately. Meanwhile, the Angels 'pen has been awful from the drop here in 2021. Take the over (10*). |
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05-16-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
NHL West Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Vegas at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the most recent meeting between these two teams but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' in this spot. While the Golden Knights are heavily favored to win this series I don't expect the Wild to back down one bit as the series opens in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. Note that Minnesota has actually taken four of the last seven meetings here at T-Mobile Arena and checks in a perfect 7-0, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Wild revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 with the Knights playing just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with an average total of 7.4 goals in that spot. The Knights have of course been dominant at home this season, skating to a 21-7 record while averaging 3.5 goals per game with the 'over' cashing at a 16-12 clip. After a very brief scoring lull in early April, the Knights went on a tear down the stretch, scoring four goals or more in 11 of their final 16 regular season games. Likewise, the Wild also picked up the pace offensively down the stretch, producing four goals or more in 10 of their last 14 contests. Take the over (10*). |
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05-15-21 | Aces v. Storm OVER 166 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 3 pm et on Saturday. This has the makings of a highly-entertaining season-opener for these two teams after Seattle swept Las Vegas in last year's WNBA Final. Both teams are at a little less than full strength to open this season, as is the case for most WNBA squads here in 2021. But both are also loaded with talent and return enough key cogs to get the season off to a fluent offensive start here on Saturday. If anything, the absence of C Mercedes Russell for the Storm should help open things up on the interior for Las Vegas. Meanwhile, the Storm are obviously brimming with explosive offensive talent led by Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart. The Storm have scored 84 points or more in four straight meetings and I expect them to surpass that number again here. Meanwhile, the Aces will be eager to gain an ounce of revenge and might just have the best offense in the entire league. Expect a high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 233 | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. This game sets up as a track meet with the Blazers playing the second of back-to-back nights off an upset win in Utah last night and the Suns returning home off a disappointing 0-2 road trip against the Lakers and Warriors. Portland got bogged down a bit offensively against a quality Jazz defense last night but should get plenty of good looks against a struggling Suns defense that checks in fourth-worst in the league in opponents floor percentage over their last three games. The Suns are in a prime bounce-back spot at home, where they average just shy of 117 points per game and shoot 49.5% as a team this season. They've absolutely torched the Blazers in two previous meetings this season, scoring 132 and 127 points. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams here in Phoenix. The 'over' is 20-8 with Portland revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. |
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05-12-21 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has ruled this series, cashing in four of the last five meetings in Colorado and nine of the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. The Avs are absolutely locked in right now as they battle for top spot in the West Division - and the entire league. They've allowed two goals or less in three straight games, including consecutive 3-2 victories over the Kings in Los Angeles last week. Note that Colorado is allowing just 2.0 goals per game on home ice this season, where it has gone 19-6. The Kings check in having scored two goals or less in six of their last eight games. The 'under' has cashed in eight of their last 10 contests. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-17 the last 49 times the Kings have played on the road after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 25-12 with the Kings heading on the road following two or more straight home games over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of only 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have given up just 2.2 goals per game after winning three of their last four games this season, with the 'under' going 15-7 in that spot with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Colorado has also posted a 10-22 o/u record when playing at home off a one-goal win over the last two seasons. As much as the Kings would like to play spoiler here, they've managed to score just one goal in two previous games in Colorado this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Oilers v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Montreal at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. Monday's matchup between these two teams found its way 'over' the total as the Oilers prevailed 4-3 in overtime. That marked Edmonton's third straight 'over' result which is worth mentioning as it hasn't posted more than three consecutive 'overs' since a five-game streak back in the last week of January. While the Oilers are known for their offense, they can play some defense as well, having allowed three goals or less in eight of their last nine games overall. The Canadiens have scored three goals or less in six straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall and average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. While they would certainly like to right the ship here off of four consecutive losses, that hasn't been a favorable spot for them in recent years, averaging just 2.5 goals per game while going 4-10 in that situation over the last two seasons. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Oilers playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that situation totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 11-3 clip with Edmonton playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season, with an average total of just 4.9 goals in that spot. For Montreal's part, it has posted a 9-17 o/u record when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season with that situation producing an average total of 5.4 goals. The Habs have done a fairly solid job containing the Oilers offense in eight previous meetings this season, allowing just 2.3 goals per game. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings in Montreal and 7-5 in the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been defense-optional for the Nets much of the season under the guidance of first-year head coach Steve Nash, particularly on the road where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 47% from the field. Note that opponents are averaging 117 points per game with an average total of 239.2 points with the Nets playing as a road favorite this season. The 'over' has cashed at a 16-7 clip in that situation. On the flip side, the Bulls haven't seen the 'over' cash since April 26th against the Heat. They're healthy though, and I believe they have the personnel to give the Nets a run in what has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair on Tuesdaynight. Even Bulls sophomore Coby White has been contributing consistently at the offensive end of the floor lately, scoring 21 points or more in three of the last four games. With Zach LaVine back and seemingly getting stronger with each passing game (he scored 30 points in Sunday's win in Detroit), there's reason to believe the Bulls can put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Nets scored 125 points despite just 66 field goal attempts in Saturday's 125-119 win in Denver. That result snapped a four-game 'under' streak for Brooklyn, although it's worth noting that two of those four 'under' results would have gone 'over' the number we're dealing with here tonight. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 222 points back on April 4th but the Nets were without Kevin Durant for that contest and Kyrie Irving made good on just 12 field goal attempts for 24 points. Here, I'll note that the Nets are averaging 120.8 points per game with an average total of 239.5 points when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has still cashed in five of the last eight meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Canucks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's meeting between these two teams got off to a fast start with three goals in the first period but fizzled from there as Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko stood on his head turning aside 39 of 40 shots in a 3-1 Vancouver victory. The Jets are struggling mightily right now but I do expect them to display some push-back here tonight and they should catch a break with Braden Holtby likely to get the nod in goal for Vancouver (the Canucks have yet to give a goaltender consecutive starts in a back-to-back spot this season). Of course, the veteran Holtby has struggled this season with a GAA well north of three and a save percentage under .900. We've seen the Canucks score three goals or more in three straight games and eight of 13 contests since returning to the ice following a long Covid-induced layoff last month. The 'over' checks in 18-8 with the Jets coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-11 with the Canucks following a game where four total goals or less were scored, with that spot producing an average total of 6.6 goals. We've seen the Canucks run out of gas defensively on long road trips in recent years, allowing 4.0 goals per game when playing a fourth consecutive road game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 6.5 total goals on average. While the 'under' has cashed in six of the last seven meetings in this series, it's certainly worth noting that we've seen a number of 6's and 6.5's over that stretch. We're dealing with a more reasonable total here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans continue to battle to earn their way into the play-in tournament but off a big come-from-behind win in Charlotte last night I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here. Without Zion in the lineup, the Pelicans have been forced to change their identity a little bit and come in off consecutive stellar defensive efforts in his absence. In fact, the 'under' is now 8-1 in the Pelicans last nine games overall. The fact that New Orleans scored 118 and 144 points in two previous wins over the Grizzlies this season should certainly peak Memphis' interest heading into this one. Like New Orleans, Memphis also ramped up its defensive play last time out, holding Toronto to under 39% shooting in a 10-point victory. That was the second time in their last six games the Grizzlies held an opponent to fewer than 100 points - a true accomplishment in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have found themselves in a situation looking for revenge for a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.4 points. While the Pelicans have more serious injury concerns with Zion and Brandon Ingram sidelined, the Grizzlies have issues of their own with underrated scorer Grayson Allen ruled out for Monday's game. It's certainly worth noting that Grizzlies super-soph Ja Morant has been slumping a bit lately as well, scoring 12 points or less in four of his last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Islanders v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We're likely only seeing a 5.5 here due to the fact that both teams are coming off 'over' results on Saturday and have generally been trending in that direction over the last week or so. I'm not anticipating a 'high-event' game on Monday night as the Isles wrap up their regular season schedule in Boston. New York snapped its three-game losing streak with a 5-1 victory over New Jersey on Saturday (we won with the Isles) but has still scored three goals or less in seven of its last nine games overall and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. Boston has scored exactly four goals in back-to-back games and that plays into our favor here, noting that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 after the B's have put up four goals or more in consecutive games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.4 goals. The 'under' also checks in 8-2 with the Bruins playing at home following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Isles have posted a 1-7 o/u mark when heading on the road following a home game this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 15-5 clip with the Isles coming off a victory by four goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Boston and eight of their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Cavs v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Cleveland catches Dallas in an advantageous spot on Friday night, rested and waiting while the Mavs were involved in a thrilling victory over the Nets in a marquee showdown just last night. Of course, the Cavs don't really have the personnel to take full advantage as they check in having lost eight straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. I do think we at least see the Cavs show some pride defensively here after allowing 122 or more points in four straight games and six consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. This isn't a spot where we're likely to see the Mavs go off offensively on the second of back-to-back nights. There's always the chance that they end up resting some starters (most notably Luka Doncic) although we'll operate under the assumption that they'll have the same lineup that we saw last night at the very least. Note that the Mavs have actually been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 110.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting entering last night's contest. After last night's game managed to say 'under' the total, the 'under' is now 20-14 with the Mavs playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-13 in all Cavs road games this season, where they average just 100.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Their offense isn't operating with much efficiency right now, largely due to the absence of standout sophomore Darius Garland, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. There seem to be a lot of instances where the Cavs are just standing around waiting for Collin Sexton to take over the game. He's a dynamic scorer to be sure, but he obviously needs help for the Cavs to be competitive. Note that Cleveland has shot 43.4% or worse from the field in four of its last six games, most recently shooting 40.2% in a 36-point rout at the hands of the Blazers, at home no less. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 211 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 103 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Carolina has cruised to consecutive wins over the Blackhawks with both games going 'over' the total. Here on Thursday, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts with a lower-scoring affair. Note that we've seen the Canes suffer a bit of a lull in similar situations, having averaged just 2.4 goals per game when coming off consecutive victories by two goals or more over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of just 5.2 goals on the last 16 occasions it has come up. Note that the Blackhawks are averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season and have been fortunate to score five goals in the first two games of this three-game set, noting that the Canes have been incredibly stout defensively at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per contest. I'm not convinced we see a real high-energy game here from either team as both teams wind down the regular season - the Blackhawks looking forward to hitting the golf course and the Canes preparing for what they hope will be a deep playoff run. We've seen similar situations this season where two teams play one another three times or more in the same location and by the end of the stretch, the intensity tends to wane. I expect a similar story to unfold in a potentially low-event contest on Thursday in Raleigh. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Rangers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive emotional losses against the Capitals and I really question how much they have left in the tank for this one, playing their third game in four nights and the second of back-to-backs. The Bruins will be looking to tighten things up after blowing a third period lead in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Devils last time out. Note that the B's have been stout defensively here at home this season, allowing just 2.5 goals per game. Already in a foul mood following the loss in New Jersey, Boston will also be seeking revenge after dropping its last matchup with the Rangers by a 4-0 score here on home ice back on March 13th. Note that the 'under' has cashed in eight of the last 12 meetings overall and four of the last five here at TD Garden. The Rangers were completely distracted by the Tom Wilson fiasco over the last two games, allowing a whopping 10 goals in consecutive losses to the Caps. Note that prior to those two contests, New York had held 11 of its last 13 opponents to three goals or less. Offensively, the Rangers will without question missing Artemi Panarin - keeping in mind, this is a team that has already been held to three goals or less in five straight games, averaging just 1.6 goals per game over that stretch. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Rangers coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. We have seen the Rangers tighten things up off a home loss this season, allowing an average of just 2.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Jets on Monday night as they suffered a 2-1 loss in Ottawa - their seventh consecutive loss. We probably deserved a better fate as Winnipeg dominated possession and scoring chances in a game where they just as easily could have had four or five goals were it not for the exploits of Sens 22-year old goaltender Filip Gustavsson. We've certainly seen signs of the Jets offense breaking out as two games back they scored three goals in a loss in Montreal. Now we find Winnipeg averaging 4.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen the 'over' go 9-2 with the Jets coming off a game where four goals or less were scored, with an average total of 7.1 goals in those contests. Meanwhile, the Flames check in off a 4-1 loss against the rival Oilers on Saturday. In spite of that, they have been playing better hockey lately, scoring three goals or more in three of their last five games, going 3-2 over that stretch. Here, we find the Flames in a situation where the 'over' has gone 11-2 over the last three seasons, when they revenge a home loss by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 8.2 goals. We've seen the Jets bounce back from poor offensive performances this season, but it's often come at the expense of their own defensively play as they've allowed 3.8 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Finally, note that the 'over' checks in 4-3 in this matchup so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the first game of this two-game set in Utah on Monday as the Jazz cruised to a 110-99 victory. Now we're dealing with an even lower posted total and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 the last 33 times the Spurs have come off a road loss with those contests totaling an average of 231 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-1 with the Spurs coming off at least four straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 233.1 points. The Jazz check in averaging an impressive 120.6 points per game when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing a total of 226.5 points on average this season. Finally, note that San Antonio averages 117 points per game when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 226.6 points. Utah will be without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley again here, but I'm still anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair, noting that five of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with three of the last four eclipsing the number we're dealing with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild have now seen the 'over' cash in six straight games but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Minnesota and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. This one sets up well as a potentially low-scoring game following Monday's wild (no pun intended) 6-5 result. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Knights have played on the road following a road game where both teams scored at least three goals, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.8 goals. We've certainly seen Vegas tighten things up after a poor defensive showing in recent years as it has given up just 2.0 goals per game with the 'under' going 13-5 with an average total of just 4.6 goals when playing on the road after allowing five goals or more in its previous game. It's a similar story for the Wild as they've given up just 1.5 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams in yesterday's double-header at Coors Field, totaling 16 and 14 runs. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Logan Webb gets the nod for the Giants. He's been effective so far in his third big league season, recording a 32.9% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate, having posted a 58.5% ground ball percentage. That's not to mention a solid 22.8% strikeout percentage, which would be a career-high. Jon Gray has been even better for the Rockies. A former top-six Rookie of the Year candidate in 2016, Gray has been in excellent form through six starts this season, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Gray has recorded a 30.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 50.0% ground ball percentage. After posting a home run percentage 3.0% or higher in each of the last three seasons he's got that number down to 2.1% so far this season while holding opposing hitters to a collective .213 batting average. While neither bullpen is anything to write home about, I'm confident the starters can do enough to help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a lopsided result between these two teams last night as the White Sox cruised to a 9-0 victory. I expect both offenses to take part in today's contest, however, leading to a relatively high-scoring game. Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for Chicago. He turned back the clock and delivered a fine 2020 campaign, finishing fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He hasn't been able to regain that magic so far this season, despite a few strong outings, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Keuchel's strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate but he has also recorded a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40%. Perhaps the biggest concern is the fact that he's yet to last beyond the sixth inning in any of his six starts, which should mean we'll see plenty of the White Sox bullpen, which owns an ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray missed time due to injury at the start of the season and has yet to really round into form, although he is coming off an 11-strikeout performance last time out. He has yet to last through six innings in any of his three starts this season and again that's a concern as the Reds bullpen owns a collective ERA north of six at home this season. We didn't see the slugfest most envisioned in the opener of this series last night as only one team showed up. Here, I look for both to contribute to what should be a high-scoring afternoon at the park. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Orioles bats finally woke up and disposed of the A's 8-4 in yesterday's contest, their second straight victory to open the series. I expect to see plenty of offense on Sunday as well as the A's look to punch back against Bruce Zimmermann. We're starting to get a better picture of what to expect from Zimmermann at the big league level after he pitched just seven innings in 2020. Here in 2021 he has worked 25 1/3 innings with opposing hitters batting a collective .320 against him. He has recorded a 44.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB averages. Zimmermann isn't missing many bats with a 16.2% strikeout percentage not to mention a 30.6% line drive percentage. While the A's have been slumping offensively I do think they can break out against the O's left-hander today. Sean Manaea will get the nod for Oakland. He got off to a rocky start this season but has settled down over his last couple of starts. While he has recorded a stellar 35.4% hard-hit ball percentage so far this season, he has feasted on slumping lineups including Detroit, Minnesota and Tampa Bay in his last three starts. The O's certainly showed signs of busting out with an eight-run performance yesterday (every player in their lineup recorded a hit). Noting that Manaea owns a career hard-hit ball percentage nearly 5% higher than the MLB average, including a 45.2% mark last season, I believe some regression is in order in coming starts. The 'under' is 3-2 in this matchup so far this season but the 'over' has still cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in the series. The 'over' is also 9-7 in all A's home games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games between these two teams with the Blues prevailing in both. That actually sets us up for a low-scoring affair on Saturday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 15-4 with the Wild coming off consecutive games totaling seven goals or more over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 12-2 in the same situation with the Blues over the last two seasons with an average total of 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 16-5 the last 21 times the Blues have played on the road off two or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 5.0 goals. The Wild will of course be out for revenge here after dropping four straight meetings in this series. The 'under' is 21-7 the last 28 times the Wild have been in a quadruple-revenge situation with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. There's reason to believe the Wild can tighten things up here, noting that they allow just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Prior to scoring at least four goals in each of their last four games the Blues had been held to three goals or less in 12 of their last 13 contests. Finally, keep in mind the 'under' has still cashed in four of the last seven meetings here in Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Indians and White Sox square off in the second game of their weekend series on Saturday afternoon in Chicago. Triston McKenzie will get the start for the Indians. While he has held opposing hitters to a collective .220 batting average in 16 2/3 innings of work this season, he hasn't pitched well by any stretch. Note that he has recorded a 54.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 94.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. McKenzie has posted a ridiculously low 10.8% ground ball percentage and 40.5% line drive percentage so it should only be a matter of time before that opponents' batting average starts creeping up. The White Sox will welcome the opportunity to face someone other than Tribe ace Shane Bieber here, noting that they've scored at least eight runs in four of their last eight games overall. Lance Lynn will get the start for Chicago. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I am high on Lynn. With that being said, there is some reason for concern here. Note that Lynn has recorded a 41.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both north of the MLB average - while also posting a 29.2% fly ball percentage - nearly six percent higher than the MLB average. Lynn's strikeouts are way up and his walks are way down but we're talking about a very small sample size through just three starts (I realize that goes for all stats mentioned here). We have seen the Indians offense come to life a little bit lately, scoring five runs or more in four of their last five games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-29-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The A's bats have gone cold once again which makes this an opportune time for the Rays to bring up highly-touted left-handed pitching prospect Shane McClanahan for his first big league start. Of course, this won't be McClanahan's first MLB appearance as he got a taste of postseason action last October, making three appearances in the ALDS and World Series. All indications are that McClanahan is ready to make the permanent leap and could actually be fighting for a potential rotation spot should Ryan Yarbrough and Rich Hill continue to struggle. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt despite his uneven start to the season. Bassitt finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and will earn just shy of $5M pitching for the A's this season. After a rocky start, he's settled down, recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball, line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages. He's always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he's posted a stellar 1.6% home run percentage. Command has been a bit of an issue in the early going but it should only be a matter of time before he works that out, noting that he owns a career walk percentage right around the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago as the Sharks snapped their long losing streak with a 6-4 win on home ice. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as the two teams wrap up a two-game set in San Jose. The Coyotes have scored four goals in each of their last two games but I'm not sure that level of production is sustainable given they had managed three goals or less in their six previous contests. Prior to potting six goals on Monday, the Sharks had been held to three goals or less in eight consecutive games. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-6 with the Sharks playing at home after losing four of their last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen San Jose post a 15-33 o/u mark when playing at home after allowing four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, with the Sharks averaging just 2.4 goals per game in that spot. Arizona checks in allowing just 2.1 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season, as is the case here, with that situation totaling just 5.1 goals on average. On the flip side, the Coyotes average just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards UNDER 226 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams in last night's series opener as the Astros cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'over' is 28-14 in the Mariners last 42 games as a road underdog priced between +150 and +200 with those games totaling well over 10 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at a 17-6 clip in the Mariners last 23 night games played on the road. The Astros have now scored at least five runs in four of their last five games and should be able to keep it going against Mariners starter Marco Gonzales on Tuesday. Opponents are seeing the ball well against the Mariners supposed ace, as he's recorded a 42.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. His 6.3% home run percentage and 8.3 walk percentage spells trouble against an Astros lineup that can mash here at home. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. His 36.4% strikeout percentage isn't sustainable in my opinion as he comes off a fantastic performance last time out. I do think it's only a matter of time before his 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 26.7% ground ball percentage/40.0% fly ball percentage catches up with him, especially pitching here in Houston. After recording an ugly 5.1% home run percentage in 54 1/3 innings of work last season he's yet to allow a home run here in 2021. Expect that to change on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Yankees send Corey Kluber to the hill against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Kluber is clearly on the downside of what has been a tremendous career. He's posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.93 WHIP through four starts. Most concerning is his 30.4% fly ball percentage and 4.1% home run percentage, especially as he prepares to pitch at hitter-friendly Camden Yards on Tuesday. Kluber's command just hasn't been there since the start of the 2019 season, due to injuries and otherwise. He checks in with an ugly walk percentage north of 15% through four starts this season. Zimmermann has been average at best as a back-end of the rotation starter for the Orioles. Like Kluber he has also posted a worse than MLB average fly ball percentage at 23.5% while inducing ground balls at a poor rate (38.2% ground ball percentage this season). His career home run percentage sits at 5.0% compared to the MLB average of 3.4%. Again, not a good sign as he faces a homer-happy Yankees lineup at Camden Yards. Over the course of Zimmermann's brief big league career, opposing hitters own a collective .269 batting average and .481 slugging percentage against him. Note that the 'over' is 43-26 in the Yankees last 69 division games away from home and 45-29 in the Orioles last 74 games as a home underdog priced +125 or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The 'under' in San Francisco probably looks like a pretty safe place to put your money at the start of a new week, after all the Giants have posted a 2-7-1 o/u mark at home this season and we already saw a three-game series between these two teams here in San Fran deliver three consecutive 'under' results earlier this season. I'm going to go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we have a very average pitching matchup with Austin Gomber against Anthony DeSclafani and with both teams getting their second look of the season against those starters. Gomber continues to struggle with his command at the big league level, recording an inflated 17.2% walk percentage in the early going this season, moving his career percentage to 11.5% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance with a 30.8% hard-hit ball percentage but I'm concerned about his 38.5% fly ball percentage and we're bound to see some regression to the mean when it comes to his .143 opponents batting average so far this season. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has been hit hard to the tune of a 48.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's never been what you would call a ground ball pitcher but so far this season has recorded a ground ball percentage north of 58%. He's been a little less effective with each passing start, however, and I look for him to face a significant challenge against a Rockies club that has been surprisingly tough at the plate lately, scoring five runs or more in five straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 217 | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We cashed our free play on the 'under' in the Hawks upset win over the Bucks last night (we also won our premium play on Atlanta) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Atlanta heads to Detroit to face the Pistons on Monday. While losing Trae Young to a knee injury certainly struck a serious blow to the Hawks offensive prospects, the cupboard is by no means bare, as we saw in last night's come-from-behind victory over the Bucks. With the likes of Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams, the Hawks are still a formidable offensive squad and they should be able to have their way with the Pistons, who are in for some regression after holding their last two opponents to 46.2% and 41.7% shooting. Note that Detroit has still allowed three of its last five opponents to shoot 48.8% or better from the field. It has had no answers for the Hawks in a pair of meetings this season, giving up 128 and 123 points. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While I do have a lot of respect for the Hawks defense, as I noted in my analysis of yesterday's plays on Atlanta and the 'under', this is obviously a letdown spot playing their second of back-to-backs in a very winnable matchup with the Pistons. I'm not sure we'll see the Hawks bring the same level of defensive intensity we saw against the Bucks last night. Note that Detroit shot just 40.6% from the field but still managed to score 109 points in an up-tempo affair in Indiana two nights ago. I'm expecting another fairly fast-paced contest here, noting that the Pistons have had little success slowing the pace of their opponents, yielding at least 92 field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. The 'over' has gone 16-6 with the Pistons coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in having allowed 119.2 points per game following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 231.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Avalanche v. Blues UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We've seen three straight relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams with 7, 6 and 8 total goals scored. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Avs and Blues wrap up their three-game set in St. Louis. Note that you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd and 4th to find the last time the Blues posted consecutive 'over' results on home ice. While they certainly haven't been great defensively, they do check in having allowed four goals or less in seven consecutive games, which is encouraging after they had given up five goals or more four times during their previous 12-game stretch. The Avs are obviously in a prime bounce-back spot here but since we're looking at the total, consider that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 the last five times Colorado has played on the road off a loss, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 19-9 the last 28 times the Avs have played on the road revenging a loss against an opponent, with those games reaching an average total of 5.3 goals. For their part, the Blues have posted an 18-30 o/u record when playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 5.5 goals. While the last three games here have been high-scoring, the 'under' is actually 26-20 in the last 46 meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis. While Colorado's explosive offense is concerning, especially in a foul mood off a loss, it's worth noting that the Avs are still missing one of their top offensive threats in Mikko Rantanen as he deals with Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series save for last night's 'over' result, and I'm anticipating another well-pitched game in Sunday's series finale. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for the Padres. He of course grabbed headlines a couple of weeks ago by throwing the first no-hitter of the season. While he suffered a bit of a letdown in his next start against his former team, the Pirates, he has bounced right back since and checks in sporting some terrific numbers through four starts this season. Musgrove has done a terrific job of keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing ground balls, recording a 51.9% ground ball percentage and 17.3% fly ball percentage this season. While we're bound to see some regression to the mean at some point as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .124 batting average, I will point out that Musgrove does own better than MLB average career numbers in terms of home run, strikeout and walk percentage. Here, he faces a Dodgers club that has scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games, topping out at five over that stretch (in last night's game). Dustin May will counter for Los Angeles. Remember, he finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season but for now is overshadowed by Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler in the Dodgers stacked rotation. May is off to a fine start here in 2021. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opponents to a collective .217 batting average. While he has posted a worse-than-average hard-hit-ball percentage of 42.1%, I'm not overly concerned as he's inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 50.8% ground ball percentage and 15.8% fly ball percentage. The Padres scratched together six runs in Friday's victory but have been held to four runs or less in five of their last six games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We were fortunate to get a 'push' with the 'over' in the Devils 4-2 loss in Pittsburgh yesterday. I'll come right back with the same play on Sunday as New Jersey draws a more favorable matchup to possible snap its nine-game losing streak, and certainly to pad its stats offensively. While the Devils have been losing game after game, they haven't had too much difficulty scoring goals, putting up 15 goals in their last five contests. They probably deserved more than two goals in yesterday's affair as they fired 36 shots on goal in the loss. Here, they draw a Flyers squad that has allowed at least four goals in four of its last seven games and gives up an average of 3.4 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the Devils have averaged an impressive 4.3 goals per game when playing on the road off three or more straight road losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. New Jersey has all but throw in the towel defensively, allowing at least four goals in six straight and 10 of its last 12 games overall. Not helping matters has been the absence of defensemen P.K. Subban and Ty Smith. The Flyers are well-positioned to bust out here noting they average 3.4 goals per game after being held to one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons. On the flip side, Philadelphia has given up a whopping 4.3 goals per game when playing its third game in four nights this season with that situation producing 6.8 total goals on average. We won with the 'over' when these two teams last squared off here in Philadelphia on March 23rd as the Devils stole a 4-3 victory. Expect a similarly high-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Portland at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams on Friday night as the Grizzlies outlasted the Blazers by a 130-128 score - easily eclipsing the total. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around and I believe it will prove too high in Sunday's rematch. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 the last 21 times the Grizzlies have come off a game that totaled 245 points or more, with that situation producing just 219.4 total points on average. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 28-10 clip after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with an average total of just 220 points in that spot. While the Grizzlies are certainly rolling along offensively, I'm not sure they want to tempt fate with another track meet here in Portland. A slower pace may serve them well here, noting that Portland is not an elite shooting team by any means, having shot 49.0% or worse from the field in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies shot a blistering 53.1% on Friday night, but will be playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, in five different cities, on Sunday afternoon. The Blazers have responded favorably following poor defensive efforts recently. After allowing an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, they've held their next opponent to 44.2%, 35.3%, 45.3% and 44.3% shooting going back to late March. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 after the Blazers score 120 points or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.5 points. While the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series, the 'under' is actually 2-1 in the last three matchups here in Portland. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 109 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
NHL on NBC TV Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. When these two teams last met on they combined to score 12 games in a wild 7-5 Bruins victory in Boston back on April 3rd. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Boston got caught flat-footed in its last game, suffering a 6-4 loss against the lowly Sabres. Keep in mind, that loss came after the Bruins had easily handled the Sabres in their previous two games. The 'under' has gone 25-10 with the Bruins coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 5.3 goals. The Bruins average 2.9 goals per game in that situation but could be hard-pressed to reach that here against a Pens squad that allows just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Boston could be without top line center Patrice Bergeron for this game after he missed Friday's game in Buffalo due to a lower-body injury. Note that the Pens have given up just 2.1 goals per game with the 'under' cashing at an 11-3 clip when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The 'under' has also gone a perfect 5-0 with the Penguins coming off three straight wins this season, with those games totaling an average of just 3.8 total goals. Pittsburgh's offense has been rolling lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of opposition it has faced as it is coming off five straight games against the Devils and Sabres - two of the league's worst teams. This is by no means an ideal spot as they play the second of back-to-back days against a Bruins team coming off a loss, noting that Pittsburgh has been held to two goals or less in three of six meetings in this series this season. Finally, keep in mind that the 'under' has cashed in three of the last five meetings here in Pittsburgh. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MLB National League Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The D'Backs are coming off an offensive explosion against the Reds yesterday and I'm confident we'll see them do plenty of damage at the plate again on Friday night in Atlanta. The question is whether they'll be able to keep pace with the Braves, who are in good position for a bounce-back performance offensively against Luke Weaver of the D'Backs. Weaver had an awful spring and he's struggled in the early going in the regular season as well. In 16 2/3 innings of work, Weaver has recorded a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 93.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. He's never been much of a ground ball pitcher and that has held true so far this season as he's posted a 30.0% ground ball percentage (compared to the 43.5% MLB average). While Weaver's walks are down, his home runs allowed are up significantly as he's been tagged for an average of around one every four innings so far this season. The Braves got off to a slow start at the plate this season and were held down in a well-pitched series against the Yankees in New York earlier this week, but do check in having scored at least five runs in eight of their last 12 games overall. Huascar Ynoa will take the ball for Atlanta. Like Weaver, he had an awful spring and has been hit hard in the early stages of the regular season as well. Ynoa has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. While his strikeouts are up considerably and his walks are way down compared to last year, we're dealing with such a small sample size that some regression to the mean is almost certainly in order. While not much was expected from the D'Backs this season, they've been on quite a tear offensively, scoring five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 in the Braves last 13 games as a home favorite priced -150 or higher with those games averaging 12.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians plated three runs in the first inning of last night's game before their bats went silent the rest of the way in a 6-3 loss. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night as the Yankees send Jordan Montgomery to the hill against Logan Allen. Montgomery hasn't pitched a full season at the big league level since finishing sixth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting in his rookie campaign back in 2017. However, he has put together a pretty solid resume when he has managed to get out there. For his career, Montgomery has been better than the MLB average in terms of opponents batting average, walk percentage, hard-hit ball percentage, opponents' exit velocity off the bat and line drive percentage - many of the key advanced stat categories we like to look at. So far this season he has recorded a terrific 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also improving on his career strikeout and walk percentages. He should benefit from facing an Indians lineup that just hasn't been able to score with much consistency in the early going. Logan Allen will counter for Cleveland. Since being cast aside by the Padres in 2019, Allen has been serviceable for the Indians. Like Montgomery, he's off to a fine start in 2021, having recorded a 31.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity while doing a tremendous job of inducing ground balls with a 57.1% ground ball percentage. Allen has generally done a good job of keeping the ball in the park and this year has been no different as he's given up just one home run in 12 innings of work. That's obviously a key against the slugging Yankees here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-21 | 76ers v. Bucks OVER 225 | Top | 117-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up well for a high-scoring affair as the Leafs and Jets are both in bounce-back mode on Thursday night. Toronto is coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the Canucks, who were coming off a long layoff due to a Covid outbreak within the team. We do find the Leafs in good position to rebound here, noting that they average 3.8 goals per game after losing five or six of their last seven contests over the last three seasons. They also average an identical 3.8 goals per game when revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 7.3 total goals on average. The Jets are coming off a 3-0 shutout loss on home ice against Edmonton on Saturday. Perhaps that poor showing was to be expected as they were returning home following a successful five-game road trip on just one day of rest - a situation they had previously struggled in this season. Here, we note that the Jets average 4.0 goals per game following a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Winnipeg has been a terrific bounce-back team this season, averaging 3.9 goals per game off a loss. Also note that the Jets average a whopping 4.7 goals per game the last seven times they've come off a shutout loss. While the 'under' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg, the 'over' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 matchups in the series. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets had their six-game 'over' streak snapped in their 113-91 loss in Miami two nights ago, and I look for an 'under' streak to present itself as they return home to host the Jazz on Wednesday night. Utah entered its last game off an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Lakers on Saturday but that shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was essentially a throw-away game with a number of key cogs sitting out due to rest. The Jazz answered back with a stellar defensive performance in the back half of that two-game set against the Lakers, allowing just 97 points on 43.0% shooting in Monday's victory. Save for a few outliers, the Jazz have been incredibly locked in defensively and check in having held seven of their last 10 opponents to 45.1% or worse shooting - a real accomplishment in today's NBA. Meanwhile, the Rockets have quietly held three straight opponents under 49% shooting - an accomplishment in their own right given how this season has gone. Offensively, however, the Rockets are in tough right now, having shot 47.0% or worse from the field in five of their last seven games. They're not getting secondary scoring right now, which is no surprise with guys like Danuel House and Sterling Brown sidelined. John Wall and Christian Wood can only do so much. Note that the Jazz and Rockets both find themselves in the league's bottom-four in terms of floor percentage over their last three games. The Rockets rank last in the league in that category here at home this season. Utah surprisingly checks in 28th in the league in extra scoring chances per game while Houston isn't much better, sitting in 21st. It's also worth noting that Houston and Utah rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in block percentage. I do think the Rockets will be able to run their offense in this game, with Utah ranking 29th in the league in steals per game, but how many good looks they'll be afforded is another matter entirely. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 with the Rockets giving up 110 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 225.1 points. The Rockets average just 104.6 points per game when at home revenging a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 218.6 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams totaled just 213 points back on March 12th and each of the last four meetings in Houston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two teams last time out as the Preds skated to a 5-2 victory on home ice two nights ago in Nashville. Now the scene shifts to Chicago for the second of three straight meetings between these Central Division foes, noting that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six games between these two here at the United Center. It's been 'feast or famine' for the Preds offense lately as they've scored five goals or more on three occasions over the last two weeks, but outside of that have been held to three goals or less in 10 of their last 13 games overall. Note that the Preds average just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. They've posted a 1-8 o/u record after scoring four goals or more in their last game this season, averaging just 1.7 goals per game with those contests averaging a total of just 4.1 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Preds playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.5 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are giving up just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off a loss this season. We're not seeing many true offensive explosions from the Blackhawks this season, noting they haven't scored more than four goals in a game since back on February 28th. They've been held to two goals or less in seven of their last 12 games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as the Brewers send the second of their two-headed top of the rotation monster to the hill in Corbin Burnes against Chris Paddack of the Padres. Burnes finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and after a lights out spring, he's been even better through his first three regular season starts, posting a miniscule 0.49 ERA and 0.22 WHIP. The advanced stats are arguably even better for Burnes as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .067 batting average to go along with a 48.4% strikeout percentage and 1.6% home run percentage. He has yet to issue a walk in 18 1/3 innings of work. Needless to say, Burnes has kept opposing hitters off balance, recording a 26.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 56.7% ground ball percentage. It's hard to say how much run support Burnes will receive here, however, as the Brewers are still without two of their best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They'll be facing Padres starter Chris Paddack who had a miserable spring but has seemingly turned it around quickly here in the regular season. While Paddack's strikeouts are down and his walks are up, he's yet to allow a home run and has recorded a 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.5% ground ball percentage and an 18.6% fly ball percentage. As I mentioned, the Brewers are undermanned offensively right now so Paddack won't have to be perfect on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Ducks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings will be back on the ice following an extended layoff, noting that the 'over' had cashed in their last six games prior to that. That's not a sustainable streak for a Los Angeles squad that averages just 2.7 goals per game and I expect the tide to finally turn against the Ducks on Tuesday. Note that Anaheim has actually held its own defensively on the road this season, allowing just 2.7 goals per contest. The Ducks enter tonight's game off consecutive home losses against the Golden Knights, allowing nine goals in the process. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 with the Ducks having lost two of their last three games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. Meanwhile, the Kings check in sporting an 18-37 o/u record when playing at least their third consecutive home game, with those games reaching an average total of just 4.9 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Kings have played at home on three days or more of rest, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. Finally we'll note that three of the last four meetings between these California rivals in Los Angeles have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met on March 3rd, they combined to score 227 points in a three-point Hawks win in Orlando. The Magic are a completely different team now, however. Note that Orlando got a combined 77 points from the trio of Nik Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross on that night. Vucevic is of course now playing in Chicago while Carter-Williams and Ross will both miss tonight's game due to injuries. Orlando does figure to show a bit of pride and play defense in this one after allowing the Raptors and Rockets to shoot 50% or better from the field in its last two games. The Magic have actually been slightly better defensively on the road this season compared to at home, allowing 111.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks last game - a double-digit victory over the Pacers on Sunday. This game sets up much differently against a much slower-paced and undermanned Magic squad. The Hawks are fairly locked in defensively right now, holding five straight opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They've been an underrated defensive team all season, in fact, particularly here at home, where they've held opponents to 45.5% shooting. With a much tougher game looming against the Knicks in New York tomorrow night, this could certainly be a game where we see Atlanta manage minutes, especially with a a number of key cogs still missing due to injury, including Danilo Gallinari, one of its most underrated offensive threats. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The opener of this series between the Blue Jays and Red Sox features two underrated starting pitchers, albeit in different ways. Hyun-Jin Ryu will take the ball for Toronto. He's a bonafide ace but I'm not sure he gets the respect he deserves as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. The Blue Jays are paying him $20M per season for a reason and he's off to another fine start here in 2021. Remember, Ryu finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 19th in N.L. MVP voting two years ago and then finished third in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 13th in A.L. MVP voting last season. While we're talking about a very small sample size, Ryu is trending toward a career-best in terms of exit velocity off opposing bats, line drive percentage and ground ball percentage. For his career, Ryu is better than the MLB averages in virtually all of the key advanced stats we like to look at it, considerably so when it comes to many. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. Just two years ago, he finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Rodriguez is off to a fine start here in 2021, recording a 30.0% strikeout percentage and 2.5% walk percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. He has also posted a terrific 29.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.5 mpg exit velocity off opposing bats. The Red Sox exploded for 11 runs in yesterday's win over the White Sox but prior to that had been held to four runs or less in five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have scored five runs or less in five straight games and a grand total of two runs in their last two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. When we last saw the Angels they were busting out of a two-game slide, scoring 10 runs in a rout of the Twins on Friday night. Covid protocols derailed the rest of that series, however, but they return to the field to host the division-rival Rangers on Monday night. Texas has seen the 'under' cash in its last two games and will send Kohei Arihara to the mound on Monday. He had a fine spring and has held up well through three regular season starts as well, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Arihara isn't going to miss many bats, with a 12.3% strikeout percentage so far but he also won't hand out a lot of free passes, recording a miniscule 1.8% walk percentage in his first 14 2/3 big league innings. Opponents have hit .255 against Arihara but he's allowed just a single home run to date. We're higher on Angels starter Dylan Bundy than most. He quietly got his career back on track with a solid 2020 campaign, his first with the Angels, that saw him finish ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, limiting opposing hitters to a .211 batting average while posting above-average numbers in both strikeout percentage and walk percentage. Bundy has also been better than the MLB average in both hard-hit ball percentage (32.0%), exit velocity off opposing bats (87.0 mph) and line drive percentage (18.0%). Now he faces a Rangers lineup that is hitting just .212 against right-handed starters this season. Note that the 'under' has gone 49-26 with an average total of just 8.2 runs when Texas plays with the total set at 9.0 or 9.5 over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Senators v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Senators and Flames on Monday night after we saw a couple of grind-it-out contests between them in Ottawa back in late March. Those two games totaled just 3 and 4 goals as the Senators swept the two-game set. It's interesting to note that the first of those two contests actually saw a closing total of 6.5 goals. We've already seen the two previous matchups between the Sens and Flames in Calgary produce 10 and 7 goals this season and I expect to see plenty of offense on display on Monday as well. Note that Calgary averages a whopping 4.8 goals per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent in which it was held to one goal or less, as is the case here as I noted above. That situation has produced an average total of 7.4 goals. Meanwhile, the Sens have allowed 4.7 goals per game when coming off a win by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing 7.0 total goals on average. Of course, Ottawa checks in allowing a miserable 4.5 goals per game on the road this season, despite Saturday's shutout win in Montreal. The Flames are back home where they've been considerably better offensively this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game with their contests here totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-19-21 | White Sox v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. I can't help but think White Sox starter Lucas Giolito is thinking Cy Young or bust this season after finishing top-seven in award voting in each of the last two seasons. He's off to a tremendous start through three outings this season with his strikeout percentage up and his walk percentage and home run percentage down compared to a still-stellar 2020 campaign. Opponents hit just .184 against him last season and they're batting a paltry .143 against him this season. We've also seen Giolito record a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage, well south of the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 in Giolito's last 20 starts with the moneyline price set between +125 and -125 as is likely to be the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 6.7 runs. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He's an underrated big league starter in my opinion and is certainly off to a solid start this season. Eovaldi has recorded a very impressive 31.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 63.8% ground ball percentage ranks near the top of the majors. While his walks are up through three starts, that doesn't mean a whole lot when you consider he posted a stellar 3.5% walk percentage in 2020. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The Flyers are coming off a high-scoring game yesterday as they allowed five goals or more for the third time in their last four games in a 6-3 loss to the Capitals. Note that Philadelphia has allowed just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons and faces an Islanders squad that has been held to three goals or less in seven straight games. Also note that the Flyers have allowed just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Isles check in off consecutive losses to the Bruins and are set up in an interesting situation here as they've posted an 0-6 o/u mark the last six times they've played on the road off a shutout loss, with those contests averaging just 2.7 total goals. The 'under' is also 6-0 when New York comes off a loss by three goals in its last game this season, with those games producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. Going back further, the 'under' is 14-3 with the Isles playing on the road off a road loss by three goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 4.5 goals. This series started off high-scoring this season with three of the first four meetings totaling exactly seven goals. Since then, we've seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 with all three contests totaling five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The A's have had their way with the Tigers in this series and while that should continue on Sunday afternoon, I believe there's value backing the 'under' as Detroit starter Matt Boyd is deserving of respect in the midst of a strong start to the season. Boyd's offseason work was well-publicized entering the 2021 campaign and so far all of that work has paid dividends as he's been terrific through three starts, posting solid numbers across the board in the majority of the key advanced stat categories we look at. Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Boyd's walks are down while he's recorded a stellar 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph opponents exit velocity, not to mention a 19.0% fly ball percentage. If you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I've been higher than most on A's starter Chris Bassitt, who is admittedly off to a slow start to the season after finishing top-10 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting a year ago. We did see signs of Bassitt turning things around as we cashed with him against the D'Backs in his last start. His walks and home runs allowed are up while his strikeouts are down but he has held opponents to a .246 batting average and has posted respectable numbers in terms of hard-hit ball, ground ball and fly ball percentages. Against a light-hitting Tigers club that is without veteran Miguel Cabrera, look for further progression from Bassitt today. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 234.5 | Top | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks didn't give Trae Young any good looks in Thursday's 120-109 Hawks loss here at home and as a result he shot 3-of-17 from the field, ultimately keeping us from cashing our 'over' ticket by a bucket. Here, I look for Young to fare much better as we should be in for a track meet between the Pacers and Hawks. Indiana hoisted up 105 field goal attempts in an eight-point loss in Utah on Friday, shooting a miserable 39% from the field. I'm willing to chalk that poor shooting up to a tough scheduling spot with a rare early weekday game in altitude, no less. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Pacers bounce back, noting that they average 115.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting on the road this season. The 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Hawks have played at home off a double-digit home loss, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 238.3 points. The Hawks have also posted a 12-3 o/u record when revenging a double-digit home loss against an opponent (Indiana defeated Atlanta 121-113 here in February) with that spot averaging a total of 237.4 points. With that Hawks shooting 47.6% or worse in three straight games, they'll be eager to get back on track offensively and should be afforded that opportunity against a Pacers squad playing their third straight game on the road and fourth game in the last six days, in four different cities. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of their series last night in Seattle. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Zack Greinke squares off against Chris Flexen. Greinke has done an excellent job keeping opposing hitters off balance so far this season, recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mpg exit velocity. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks and home runs allowed are up but I certainly expect improvement from the veteran right-hander in those departments moving forward. It's not as if the Mariners have been tearing the cover off the baseball this season, hitting a collective .222 at Safeco Field this season. Chris Flexen has been good but certainly not great through two starts with the Mariners but it is encouraging that he has issued 'only' four walks in 10 innings of work as command, or lack thereof, was a big reason why the Mets were willing to cut him loose. He did a better job of avoiding walks during the spring and that seems to have carried over into the regular season. Of course, Flexen catches a break here with the Astros missing Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Oilers v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
North Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. With the 'over' having cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg and the Oilers itching to get back on the ice following an extended layoff, I'm expecting a high-scoring game on Saturday night. Note that Edmonton will be playing for the first time in a week due to Covid-related postponements against the Canucks. The 'over' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Oilers have played on three or more days' rest over the last two seasons with those games averaging a whopping 9.0 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets check in averaging 3.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season, as is the case here. When we last saw Edmonton play, it suffered a 5-0 loss at the hands of rival Calgary last Saturday. That actually sets up the Oilers quite well here as they average 3.7 goals per game after allowing five goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. The 'under' has gone 2-0-1 in the last three meetings in this series but all three of those games were played in Edmonton. As I mentioned at the top, this has been a considerably higher-scoring matchup in games played in Winnipeg recently with two meetings here this season totaling 7 and 10 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in Vegas' 6-2 win in Los Angeles two nights ago as the Kings long 'over' streak remained intact. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Golden Knights continue their California road trip in Anaheim on Friday night. The Ducks are coming off consecutive four-goal outbursts in victories over the Sharks in San Jose. That sets them up poorly here, however, noting that they've averaged just 1.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 5.1 goals. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Anaheim here at home this season, where it averages just 1.9 goals per game. The Golden Knights average 3.1 goals per game on the road but check in averaging just 2.2 goals per game when playing their third game in five days over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.7 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 14-5 clip. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-9 with the Knights playing on the road following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Ducks have posted an 0-6 o/u mark when at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. I'll also point out that three of the last five meetings here in Anaheim stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Knicks v. Mavs UNDER 211 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met in Manhattan earlier this month they combined to score just 185 points in a double-digit Mavericks victory. I'm not anticipating a whole lot more offense in this one but we've only seen a minor adjustment to the total with the previous matchup seeing a closing total of 212.5. The Knicks actually check in off consecutive 'over' results. Here, we find the 'under' has gone 10-1 when they come off consecutive games in which they scored 110 points or more over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 210.1 total points. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-6 with the Knicks coming off an outright underdog victory (New York won as a 2.5-point underdog in New Orleans last time out) over the last two seasons with that situation producing just 207.3 total points on average. Note that the Knicks are allowing just 102.3 points per game when playing with same-season revenge this season, as is the case here as noted above. For their part, the Mavs have posted a 10-15 o/u record at home this season where they've inexplicably scored fewer points per game compared to on the road. While Luka Doncic's last-second heroics were the story, the Mavs got back in Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies thanks to some tough defensive play, limiting Memphis to 47.2% shooting. Only two of Dallas' last 16 opponents have shot better than 50% from the field and the Knicks don't figure to approach that number as they average just 103.7 points per game on 44.6% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 18-11 clip. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in the Warriors rout of the undermanned Thunder last night but I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play here, as I don't expect another peak offensive effort from Golden State in this, the second installment of a five-game road trip. Note that while it has been overshadowed by its recent offensive outbursts, the Warriors are playing some excellent defensive basketball right now, having held their last four opponents to 110 points or less and 48.3% or worse shooting (that qualifies as solid defensive basketball in today's NBA). The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Warriors playing the second of back-to-back nights this season with that situation producing just 211.1 total points on average. The 'under' is also 9-1 after the Warriors win three of their last four games ATS this season with that situation producing 215 total points on average. The Cavs have scored less than 110 points in back-to-back games and have plenty of what I would call 'possession killers' in their lineup right now. They've shot 48.7% or worse from the field in three straight games and are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league this season. With this being the Warriors third game in the last four nights (in three different cities), I'm not anticipating a track meet. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. With the Hurricanes coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the lowly Red Wings I expect to see them tighten things up against the surging Predators on Thursday, noting that Carolina has allowed just 2.2 goals per game on home ice this season. Nashville checks in with the 'under' having gone 8-1 when playing on the road off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games averaging just 3.6 total goals. For its part, Carolina has posted a 1-10 o/u record when playing at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.9 goals per game in that situation with an average total of just 4.4 goals. Also note that the 'under' has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these two teams in Carolina. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw the Giants long eight-game 'under' streak come to an end in last night's 7-6 victory over the Reds. Now I look for them to post a second straight 'over' result as they wrap up their series with the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. Tyler Mahle will take the ball for Cincinnati. He got in very limited work during Cincinnati's exhibition schedule in March and didn't fare well. He's held his own through two regular season starts but there is still some reason for concern entering Wednesday's outing. Note that we're dealing with small sample sizes when talking about Mahle's opponents' batting average going back to the start of last season. In 2020, opponents hit just .198 off Mahle while they've hit a poor .129 against him through two starts here in 2021. However, he allowed three home runs in 5 2/3 innings of work during Spring Training and has already posted a 5.4% home run percentage this season. Note that he's been worse than the MLB average in that department over the course of his career (4.0%). Mahle has also posted an ugly 16.2% walk percentage this season - again, a category where he's worse than the MLB average over the course of his 4+ year MLB career. With the Giants showing signs of life at the dish last night I think we'll see some carry-over effect against Mahle today. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. He's generally been on the decline since a stellar 2016 campaign that saw him make the All-Star Game and finish sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 26th in N.L. MVP voting. While Cueto's ERA and WHIP are stellar through two starts, he has actually recorded a poor 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 33.3% line drive percentage, which in my opinion means he's been a bit lucky to this point. Note that Cueto has yet to give up a home run through two starts after having posted home run percentages of 3.3% or higher in each of the last four seasons (the MLB average is 2.8%). I certainly wouldn't expect his 25.9% strikeout percentage to continue having recorded a high of 20.2% over his last three seasons. Note that we've now seen seven of the last nine meetings in this series go 'over' the total following last night's 13-run outburst. Take the over (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 223 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Thunder's most recent game - a 117-93 home loss to the 76ers on Saturday. That 'under' result snapped a somewhat improbable three-game 'over' streak for Oklahoma City. I say improbable as the Thunder have been absolutely decimated by injuries and simply don't have the personnel in place to compete in track meets right now. I feel that this game sets up similarly to Utah's relatively low-scoring blowout win over the Cavaliers here in Salt Lake City back on March 29th. We won with the 'under' on that night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Utah should be in a foul mood tonight after letting one slip away against the Wizards last night. After scoring 42 first quarter points the Jazz might have got caught already checking the game off in the win column as the Wizards rallied and ultimately snapped Utah's long home winning streak. Of course, the Jazz are more than capable of bouncing right back tonight, and I expect it to come on the strength of a strong defensive effort after allowing the Wiz to shoot better than 52% from the field last night. Note that Utah allows just 104 points per game on 43.4% shooting at home this season. The Thunder, meanwhile, have been ripped for 129 points or more in four of their last six games overall but as I noted on Saturday, we should see them at least play with some pride moving forward. They shot 50% from the field in Saturday's loss - the first time they reached that mark since way back on March 14th. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Note that the 'under' has gone 42-22 in Oklahoma City's last 64 games as a road underdog with those contests totaling an average of just 216.8 points. The Thunder have actually been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, allowing 110.9 points per game on 46.3% shooting. Note that the Jazz have allowed just 103.8 points per game this season when playing their third consecutive game at home. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Utah. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins rallied for a 5-3 extra innings victory to open this series in Atlanta last night, compounding the Braves sluggish start to the season. While we saw signs of life over the weekend, the Braves still aren't hitting with much consistency and I believe that helps set us up well with the 'under' on Tuesday night. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been quietly consistent over the course of his 3+ year big league career, getting marginally better with each passing season. Lopez improved in both strikeouts per nine innings and home runs allowed per nine innings last season, recording a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Through two starts this season, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings, he's been better than the MLB average in most key advanced stat categories. Opposing hitters are batting just .132 against him. Of course, we can anticipate some regression moving forward but we don't need him to be perfect to help keep this one 'under' the total on Tuesday. That's largely due to the fact that I'm anticipating a strong performance from Braves starter Max Fried. Like the rest of his team, Fried is off to a tough start this season, recording a 9.00 ERA and 2.43 WHIP through two starts, spanning just seven innings of work. Keep in mind, Fried finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 18th in N.L. MVP voting last season and had a terrific spring, posting a 1.38 ERA 0.77 WHIP in 13 innings pitched. We can certainly anticipate him turning things around sooner rather than later. Note that the Marlins have scored three runs or less in eight of nine games this season (excluding extra innings). Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Bulls v. Grizzlies UNDER 230.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Grizzlies track meet loss against the Pacers last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Memphis was baited into a frenetic pace against Indiana last night and simply couldn't keep up in an eventual 132-125 loss. I expect a different type of game to unfold on Monday as both the Bulls and Grizzlies check in off losses, and in back-to-back spots. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 when the Grizzlies play at home after losing two of their last three games this season with those contests totaling just 213.1 points on average. We've also seen the 'under' go 26-10 the last 36 times Memphis has given up 120 points or more in a game, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 220.8 points. For the Bulls, this will be their 10th game in the last 17 nights, in 10 different cities! They still managed to shoot better than 51% from the field in last night's loss in Minnesota but I expect them to have a tough time matching that mark tonight. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 46.6% shooting at home this season and 46.9% or worse shooting in six of their last eight games overall. Off last night's poor defensive effort against the Pacers, I expect them to make a bit of a statement here. For the Bulls, they'll simply be looking to keep within arm's reach as they attempt to steal one at the end of a long road trip. Note that each of the last two meetings in this series in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Angels are still licking their wounds following Saturday's 15-1 beatdown at the hands of the Blue Jays (we lost with the 'under' in that game). I expect a much lower-scoring affair on Monday as they head to Kansas City to face the Royals. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Here, Bundy will face a Royals club that is coming off an extra innings victory over the White Sox yesterday but has been held to four runs or less in five straight games since exploding out of the gates against a bad Rangers pitching staff to open the season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He finished eighth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 season. He was roughed up in his 2021 debut against the Rangers but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Note that Singer posted excellent numbers across the board during his rookie campaign. While he was chased early from his first start this season he still managed to record impressive 10% line drive and fly ball percentages, not to mention a 70% ground ball percentage after excelling in those three categories last year as well. While the Angels do possess a potent lineup, I do feel they're in for some regression at the dish and we saw signs of that as they struggled to get to Blue Jays starter Steven Matz on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday. The Nationals have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games overall which is perhaps not all that surprising considering they're coming off a series against the pitching-strong Dodgers over the weekend. There is reason for optimism that we'll see the Nats' lineup break out sooner rather than later though. Victor Robles enters this series riding a three-game hitting streak. Trea Turner was 4-for-8 at the dish over the last two games. Juan Soto is Juan Soto and was 4-for-8 including two home runs in the first two games against the Dodgers prior to yesterday's 0-for-4 day. Ryan Zimmerman was also 4-for-8 in the first two against L.A. before running into Clayton Kershaw yesterday. You get the picture. There is concern for the Nats' here though as starter Erick Fedde has yet to really figure things out at the big league level. Since breaking into the majors back in 2017, opposing hitters have batted a collective .283 against him. That's not to mention his career 43.6% hard-hit ball percentage - well north of the MLB average. In his 2021 debut last week opposing hitters posted a 91.9 mph exit velocity, certainly a concern as he prepares to face a dangerous Cardinals lineup that will be in a foul mood off consecutive losses against the Brewers over the weekend. John Gant will counter for St. Louis. He has got in limited work over the last couple of seasons. He was good but not great in his season debut against a light-hitting Marlins club. Note that Gant has posted worse than MLB average hard-hit ball and line drive percentages over the course of his career. He's always had issues with his command, with a career 11.6% walk percentage and while the Nats' have been struggling at bit at the plate, they're more than capable of punishing Gant for his mistakes tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Pacers v. Grizzlies UNDER 233 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. Indiana took the first meeting between these two teams in a wild 134-116 affair back on February 2nd. I'm expecting this rematch to be much lower-scoring than that, however, noting that the Grizzlies have allowed just 108 points per game when at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 217.5 points. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Grizzlies play at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season with those games totaling an average of just 210.3 points. The 'under' is also 15-3 when the Grizzlies come off a very high-scoring game totaling 245 points or more, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those contests producing an average of just 218.8 points. For their part, the Pacers have posted a 1-8 o/u record after attempting 90 shots or more in consecutive games this season and they've played to an average total of 225.4 points after consecutive games where 215 points or more were scored this season. It's interesting to note that the Grizzlies have actually been a lower-scoring team at home than on the road this season, recording a 9-17 o/u mark here in Memphis with those games totaling an average of 220.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 103 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We're going to go the contrarian route with this one given the 'over' has cashed in four of five meetings between these two teams this season, including a wild, high-scoring 7-4 Knights victory in the front half of this two-game set on Friday night. The Coyotes have now seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games as they've uncharacteristically scored 12 goals while giving up 13 over that stretch. Note that Arizona has allowed just 2.0 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season. The Coyotes have averaged 3.8 goals per game themselves in that spot but I wouldn't count on that level of offensive production against a Knights squad that allows just 2.4 goals per game on home ice this season and prior to Friday's contest had given up three goals or less in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-3 with the Coyotes playing on the road off consecutive games where at least seven goals were scored, as is the case here, with those contests totaling just 4.8 goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Indians bats woke up and delivered an 11-run performance in last night's blowout win. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance on Sunday, however. Keep in mind, prior to last night's game, the Indians had scored just eight runs combined over their last three games. Tigers starter Jose Urena didn't fare well in his season debut last week as he got lit up by the Twins at Comerica Park. There's a reason the Marlins stuck it out for six seasons with Urena and why the Tigers are paying him north of $3 million dollars here in 2021. This is a matchup he can handle against a very average Indians lineup. Logan Allen was effective over five innings in his first outing of the season for the Indians. He'll be facing a Tigers club that boasts one of the weakest offenses in baseball, having topped out at six runs this season, scoring four runs or less in six of eight contests to date. Both bullpens should have virtually all hands on deck after last night's lopsided game. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a bit of an overreaction in the betting marketplace to the Blue Jays playing their home games in hitter-friendly Dunedin this season with the totals being set at 10 or higher in all three games in this series so far. The Blue Jays still aren't hitting so if they're going to snap their four-game skid on Saturday night, they're likely going to need to get some solid pitching from their staff, led by newly-acquired Steven Matz. Matz pitched well in his season debut, picking up where he left off after a solid spring. Note that the 'under' has gone 36-17 when Matz takes the ball off a team loss over the course of his career with those games producing an average total of 7.7 runs. I would expect some regression from the Angels offense here after it scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series. Veteran starter Jose Quintana takes the ball for Los Angeles, noting that the 'under' has gone 75-44 when he starts following a team win over the course of his career with those contests totaling an average of just 8.1 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This is a rematch of a Phillies 4-0 victory last weekend and I'm anticipating another low-scoring contest on Friday night in Atlanta. Zack Wheeler will once again take the ball for the Phillies. He finished 12th in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and picked up right where he left off in his first start of 2021. Wheeler allowed just one hit over seven shutout innings against the Braves last week, striking out 10 along the way. He is above average in nearly all of the key advanced pitching stat categories, most notably allowing a 2.2% home run percentage and a 34% hard-hit ball percentage over the course of his career, both considerably better than the MLB averages. The same goes for Braves starter Charlie Morton. That's even more impressive when you consider how poorly he performed early in his career. Morton owns a career 35.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 52.7% ground ball percentage and a staggering 18.9% fly ball percentage. He has recorded a strikeout percentage of at least 24.7% in each of the last five seasons, much higher than the MLB average of 20.2%. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Phillies come off three or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 7.5 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 223 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Suns win over the Jazz last night, which was truly a bad beat as only 204 points were scored in regulation time. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Phoenix plays in a back-to-back spot against the Clippers in Los Angeles. After shooting better than 51% from the field in four straight games, the Suns shot just 44.6% last night and I would expect some continued regression against a good Clippers defense that allows just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting at home this season. The Clips, like last night's opponent the Jazz, are locked in defensively right now having limited three of their last four opponents to 41.3% or worse shooting. For its part, Phoenix has allowed just one of its last 13 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. The Suns have been every bit as good defensively on the road as at home, giving up 107.7 ppg on 45.9% shooting. Note that the 'under' is 29-15 when the Suns play on the road following an 'over' result over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The lone previous matchup between these two teams this season took place back on New Year's Eve, with the Suns posting a relatively low-scoring 106-95 win in Utah. We're dealing with a higher posted total this time around (the closing total on December 31st was 219) but I'm not sure it's warranted. Yes, Phoenix is on fire (no pun intended) offensively right now, having scored 140 and 133 points in its last two games. Those offensive outbursts weren't overly surprising, however, as they came at the expense of the injury-riddled Thunder and lowly Rockets. Concerning was the fact that they allowed Houston and its generally-inept offense to shoot better than 54% from the field last time out. Phoenix is obviously a better defensive team than that and should rise to the occasion in this showdown with the first-place Jazz, noting that the Suns allow just 107.7 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season and had held 11 straight opponents to below 50% shooting prior to that game against the Rockets. I mentioned the Suns offense - they've shot better than 51% from the field in four straight games heading into tonight's contest - their longest streak of that sort this season. They'll be hard-pressed to keep it going here against a Jazz defense that has been locked in lately, holding 10 consecutive opponents to 48.3% or worse shooting. Utah allows 111.2 ppg on 46.2% shooting on the road this season. Note that the Suns have allowed just 104.6 ppg following an ATS loss this season, with those games totaling an average of 219.8 points. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 119-143 o/u record following an ATS loss under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those contests totaling an average of 204.7 points (that trend does back a little further than I would like but is still worth noting). Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last three meetings between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Avalanche v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Minnesota at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams on Monday night as the Avalanche stayed hot with a 5-4 victory. The 'over' has now cashed in four straight meetings in this series but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Note that the 'under' has still cashed in four of the last seven meetings here in Minnesota. The Avs have posted a 4-12 o/u record when playing on the road off a one-goal road win over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-6 with the Wild playing at home following an 'over' result over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.9 goals on average. I'll also point out that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Wild playing with triple-revenge on home ice over the last three seasons, with those games reaching an average total of only 3.9 goals. The 'under' has cashed in 10 of Minnesota's 17 home games this season with the Wild allowing only 2.1 goals per game. This is certainly a tough challenge based on how well the Avs have been playing, but I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, relatively low-scoring affair on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. Both of today's starters are coming off uncharacteristically poor season debuts last week but I'm confident we'll see both get on track here today at Wrigley Field. Brandon Woodruff lasted only four innings in his first start against the Twins, struggling with his command throughout. Keep in mind, he's gotten better with each passing season and last year posted a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Through his four-year big league career he's been above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories and I'm confident he'll bounce back against a Cubs lineup that has yet to really get going this season. Kyle Hendricks finished ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season, recording a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Even though he lasted only three innings in his 2021 debut, it's not as if he was hit hard. In that outing he posted a 22.2% hard-hit ball percentage, an 11.1% line drive percentage and an impressive 77.8% ground ball percentage. Like the Cubs, the Brewers are still struggling to score runs with consistency this season. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 in Woodruff's last seven starts against opponents that own winning record, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. The 'under' is also 16-5 in the Brewers last 21 road games against right-handed starters, with those contests totaling just 6.9 runs on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the opener of this short two-game set in Oakland last night as the Dodgers offense jumped ahead early and tacked on more offense late to push the game 'over' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as the A's look to earn some quick 'revenge' while Dodgers former ace (and now number-two guy behind Walker Buehler) Clayton Kershaw tries to bounce-back from a brutal Opening Day start in Colorado. Kershaw certainly wasn't at his best against the Rockies last time out, missing very few bats over the course of 5 2/3 laborous innings. Kershaw has been here before, though, with doubters coming out of the woodwork in droves. I'm confident we'll see him respond with a strong performance tonight - it helps that he's facing an A's club that hasn't hit well at all during an 0-5 slide to open the season. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He quietly finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. Bassitt has seen his walks per nine innings decrease in each of the last three seasons, not to mention the fact he's given up less than 1.0 home run per nine innings in two of those three campaigns. He worked at least into the sixth inning in 10 of 11 regular season starts last season and while he wasn't at his best in his first start this season, he still managed to give the A's 5 1/3 innings, allowing just three earned runs against a red hot Astros offense. Take the under (10*). |
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