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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-18 | Pacers v. Clippers OVER 215.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Indiana Pacers @ 3:35 ET - When these teams met in Indiana a week ago, the Clippers shot 55% and yet they lost and the game stayed under the total. This is helping to give us solid line value with this total because the Pacers are off of another unique result too. Indiana is off of a win at Sacramento Thursday despite allowing 53.8% from the field. As you can see, the Pacers defense hasn't exactly been on point of late! The Clippers are on an under streak but there is a reason this total is as high as it is. It is more than just some "strange results" recently, it is also that the Clips are now back home where the over is 5-2 in their last 7 games as hosts. LA is still alive in the playoff race and the Pacers are still chasing the Cavaliers for the top spot in the Central Division. With that said there will be no let up from either team and a tight game late could also lead to some free throws and "scramble points" helping our cause. The Clippers have averaged 115.7 points per game in their last 7 home games. The Pacers have scored 106 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games and the Clippers are going to push the pace in this one as they seek revenge for last week's loss. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-31-18 | Pistons v. Knicks OVER 211 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #803 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Detroit Pistons @ 5:05 ET - The last time the Knicks were in action they combined with the Sixers to give me one of the worst "Bad Beats" I'll likely have this entire calendar year in any sport. The teams combined for 130 points at halftime and yet the game (a big play for me) did not go over the total. It was a horrific beat and, suffice to say, I had my eyes out for when I could get some payback involving New York. Now the Knicks host a Pistons team that, though not officially eliminated, knows that the odds of a playoff berth are basically somewhere between minuscule and nothing. In other words, this is a late season match-up of two non-playoff teams and that means defense goes out the window. Look for for a free-flowing offensive showcase. The Knicks are 7-3 to the over this season when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Also, New York is 6-2 to the over in Saturday games. The Pistons are 7-2 to the over this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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03-29-18 | Bulls v. Heat OVER 210 | Top | 92-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:35 ET - With the Bulls having shot so poorly in many recent games I know I am going against the grain here. However, that is all part of being a contrarian and this is an excellent situation. The Heat are off of a huge win versus Cleveland where they held the Cavs to just 79 points. That is certainly noteworthy as Miami is 12-5 to the over (including 4-1 this season) when off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. Also, as the Heat have been pushing hard to secure a playoff spot, they have been trending over. Prior to the low-scoring match-up with the Cavaliers, the over was 16-6 in Miami's 22 previous games. As for the Bulls, they were 5-1 to the over in their 6 games prior to getting obliterated by Houston and scoring only 86 points. As you would expect, Chicago struggles to stop quality teams and that has played a key role in the over going 25-13 in Bulls games versus teams with a winning record this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah OVER 134 | Top | 82-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #711 Thursday 10* OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - 3 of the Nittany Lions 4 NIT games have gone under the total. However, a big win at Marquette thanks to hot shooting followed up by continued hot shooting here at MSG on Tuesday is what has Penn State in the NIT Championship. As a result, I feel we're getting great line value here because the results are similar for Utah. The Utes have stayed under the total in 3 of their 4 NIT games but they have shot the ball very well in their last 5 games. I just don't see Penn State as wanting this game to slow down too much. Couple that with Utah having shot 50% from the field in their last 5 games and you have the makings of an easy over here. The Utes, though they shot well overall, did not shoot the 3-ball well Tuesday versus Western Kentucky and that has led to value here. Utah is 6-3 to the over this season when off of a game where they were held under 32.2% from 3 point land. The over is 13-7 in Penn State's last 20 games versus teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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03-28-18 | Knicks v. 76ers OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Look for this to be a very entertaining game with a ton of points scored. The Knicks Trey Burke looks like and, at least for the last 4 games, plays like his idol Allen Iverson. That said, off of a 42 point performance (with 12 assists) at Charlotte Monday, look for another huge game from Burke here as he's certainly excited about playing in Philly. This is his first visit to the City of Brotherly Love since he took on an increased role with the Knicks after the All Star break. The Sixers are red hot again and have won 7 straight games. They certainly are excited about Markelle Fultz being back on the floor finally and he had 10 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds in just 14 minutes in the 76ers big win over Denver Monday. Philadelphia is averaging 118 points per game during their current 7-game winning streak and the way the Knicks have been scoring since the All-Star break (and coinciding with Burke's increased role) sets the stage for an easy over here. The Knicks have scored at least 104 in 11 of their last 16 games while the Sixers have allowed 105.4 in their last 5 home games. This one should get well into the 220s based on that as Philly opened up as a 14 point favorite and both of these teams are really feeling it right now in terms of execution on offense! The over is 3-0 this season in Knicks road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The over is 13-6 when the 76ers enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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03-26-18 | Knicks v. Hornets OVER 222 | Top | 128-137 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #733 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Though it is not official yet, even though the Hornets have won 3 straight games, Charlotte is effectively eliminated from the post-season race and they know it. That said, I like to look at the over in late-season match-ups like this that are between two teams that are not going to the post-season. These types of late season ho-hum games tend to lead to plenty of offense and very little defense as there is certainly not a lot of incentive to get stops on the defensive end. That said, I like the fact that this total already has dropped from it's earliest number of 224 down to a 222 and I would not be surprised if it drops even further. With their upset win at Washington yesterday, New York has scored more than 100 in 7 of their last 9 games. The rarity about yesterday's win was that the Knicks didn't allow triple digits. In fact, NY entered that game having allowed 108 points or more in 15 of their last 18 games. Not much defense in those numbers! The over is 8-4 this season when New York is playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, when off of an outright upset win as an underdog, the Knicks are 10-5 to the over this season! The over is 5-0 in the Hornets last 5 home games and they've averaged scoring 118.7 points per game their last 10 at home! 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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03-25-18 | Duke v. Kansas OVER 155 | Top | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas Jayhawks vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - This total may seem to be on the high side but, keep in mind, these are two of the most potent offenses in college basketball today. The fact that Duke is off of a game where they scored only 69 points and didn't shoot well simply helps to add even more value here. The Blue Devils faced the tough frustrating defense of Syracuse but, in their prior games Duke had scored 87 points or more in 3 of 4 games and they shot extremely well from the field overall and from 3-point land in all 3 of those game! The Jayhawks have averaged 81 points per game in their last 6 games and they have consistently shot the ball very well over their last 10 games. It is no wonder why the over has gone 7-3 in those 10 games as Kansas is playing their best basketball of the season on the offensive end and playing with a ton of confidence. The Jayhawks are averaging 81.4 points per game and the Blue Devils 84.4 points per game on the season. Ton of offense expected here as both teams believe they can outdo each other on the offensive end and you may be surprised to see a very fast pace to this game but that is what I am expecting based on the game management expected from these coaches for this match-up. This is going to be a back and forth shootout. The over is 10-2 this season in Blue Devils games versus non-ACC foes. The over is 6-2 this season when the Jayhawks are playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas |
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03-24-18 | Bulls v. Pistons OVER 210.5 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons, though of course they wouldn't admit it, are coming to terms with the fact that they're not going to make the post-season. They're just too far back now. After a loss to the Rockets, Detroit has lost 11 of its last 15 games. I know the Pistons have some good recent stats on defense but I look for this to be a run and gun shootout on Saturday evening in Detroit. This is a match-up of two teams not going to the post-season and the Bulls quit playing defense a long time ago. Chicago has allowed 117.3 points per game their last 7 games. Detroit needs a breakout game on offense after a frustrating game at Houston. Of course facing the weak Bulls is going to allow the Pistons to enjoy a huge electric game on the offensive end. Chicago is off of a home loss to Milwaukee that went over the total and the over is 9-4 this season when the Bulls are off of a divisional game. The Bulls have averaged 107.7 points per game on offense their last 7 games and you can see why I am looking for a 120 to 108 type game here which, of course, equates to an early over. This will appear to be a bit of a contrarian play given the Pistons recent numbers on defense but you can see, per the above, why I am expecting an entirely different mindset for this one. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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03-23-18 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 221.5 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #859 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors and Nets just met early last week in Brooklyn and the game barely stayed under the total. In the Nets other 10 games dating back to their final game of February, the over is 7-3. As for the Raptors, they played very solid defense late in their win at Orlando Tuesday but they then suffered a tough beat at Cleveland Wednesday as they let that one get away from them late. Toronto may not have a lot of defensive intensity left after trying desperately to hang on in that revenge game at Cleveland (they just can't see to win there) and, keep in mind, this is the Raptors 6th game in 9 days! Toronto has allowed 52.7% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. As for the Nets defense, they've allowed 110.4 points per game on the season. Brooklyn is 6-3 to the over when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Raptors are 6-3 to the over in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. This big total is absolutely justified and there won't be much D in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic OVER 214 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #651 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Who would play defense in this one and why? The Raptors certainly have bigger fish to fry and the Magic are just playing out the string on the season. Orlando is off of a very ugly game versus Boston Friday which is helping to give line value here as that one fell well short of the total. The fact is that, prior to that game, the Magic had allowed an average of 112.7 points per game in their 3 prior games. Also, in their 5 prior home games, Orlando had averaged 113 points per game. These teams just met 3 weeks ago and the total opened up at a 220. With this one opening up a half-dozen points short of that, I'll gladly step in. The Raptors have allowed 54.2% from the field in their last two games and defense is unlikely to be a priority here with a huge game at Cleveland on deck for tomorrow night. The over is 8-4 this season when Toronto is off of an upset loss as a favorite. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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03-19-18 | Grizzlies v. Nets OVER 211.5 | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #611 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:35 ET - I successfully used the over in Brooklyn when the Nets hosted the Mavericks Saturday and this is a very similar situation. You have two non-conference foes matched up and both teams playoff aspirations are long gone. Simply put this is the perfect type of match-up that lacks in intensity and that almost always features loosely played defense and up-tempo offense throughout. The fact that both the Grizzlies and Nets are off of wins also helps in this regard as that further lessens the likelihood of any intense defense being played here. The over is 15-5 the last 20 times these teams have met in New York. Also, Brooklyn enters this game having gone 6-3 to the over in their last 9 games. They've allowed 117.2 points per game in those 9 contests. The Grizzlies, prior to a very rare win Saturday, had allowed 115.3 points per game in their 3 prior games. When Memphis enters a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home, the over has gone 19-8. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-18-18 | Thunder v. Raptors OVER 217 | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 1:05 ET - The Raptors and Thunder have gone over the total in each of their last 4 meetings. Overall, Toronto is 20-8 to the over in their last 28 games against Northwest Division opponents. Keep in mind, the Raptors aren't going to play as intense of defense against non-conference opponents as they would against a division rival. The same holds true for Oklahoma City and I look for the over to improve to 6-3 in Thunder games versus Atlantic Division rivals this season. The over is 5-2 in OKC's last 7 road games. Toronto is 20-2 SU in their last 22 games and their dynamic offense has led the way. The Raptors have averaged 115.5 points per game in those contests. They are a 6.5 point favorite here. If they just hit their recent average and the odds makers are right about the spread in this one, you're talking about a game hitting 225 points. That said, we have plenty of value here for a top play and that is what I am going with. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-17-18 | Mavs v. Nets OVER 213.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - This is the ideal type of late season match-up and scheduling situation that I look for when it comes to finding what should be an easy over. Non-conference match-up, two teams eliminated from playoff contention already, and both teams in a back to back spot. The fact each of these teams were in action last night means tired legs on defense which means less effort trying to close out on shooters or make the switch on screens, etc. The fact that neither team has playoff pressure means plenty of free-flowing offense in this one. Both teams scored very well last night and I expect more of the same here. Brooklyn has gone over the total each of the last two times they've hosted the Mavericks and the Nets game at Dallas earlier this season also went over the total. There should be very little defense in this game! 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-15-18 | 76ers v. Knicks OVER 217 | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - The 76ers kicked me hard on Tuesday when their game versus the Pacers did not go over the total. The game was perfectly on pace with the 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter...ALL 3...being perfect for an over. Then came a dreadful 4th quarter that burned badly. I wasn't the only one getting burned as the Sixers did too! That dreadful performance cost them an important W in the standings. As a result, I look for Philly to take out their frustration on a dreadful Knicks team and that means plenty of points here! New York is 9-2 to the over in their last 11 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. The fact is that the Knicks just aren't playing defense any more and the over was 7-2 in their 9 games prior to a rare under versus Dallas Tuesday. As for the Sixers, they've averaged 113 points per game in their last 5 road games and they will not take their foot off of the gas after what happened against the Pacers! 10* OVER the total in New York |
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