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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 220.5 | Top | 98-117 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Pacers are off an under versus the Bulls Tuesday but they actually allowed 93 field goal attempts in that game. A poor shooting night for Chicago helped insure that the game did not go over the total. However, Indiana entered that game on a 5-1 run to the over. As for the Bucks, they are also off of an under. Milwaukee had a poor shooting night at Phoenix Monday. Despite 95 field goal attempts, the Bucks game versus the Suns stayed under the total. Certainly the proper pace was there for an over and that is nothing new in recent Milwaukee games. The Bucks entered that game on a 4-1 run to the over. 2 of the last 3 meetings between the Pacers and Bucks in Milwaukee have gone over the total. The Bucks are happy to be back home and I expect a huge game from them on the offensive end after that shot poorly in back to back games to wrap up their road trip. The over is 27-16 when Milwaukee is off an upset loss as a favorite. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Bucks enter a game with two days of rest between games. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge and I look for the Pacers over to improve to 5-2 this season when in that situation. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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03-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 226.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets burned me bad on Sunday, though they beat the Celtics at Boston. The problem was that Houston scored extremely well each of the first 3 quarters but then in the 4th they didn't even total half the amount of points they did in any of the first 3 quarters. The result was a painful bad beat with the over in that situation Sunday and I won't hesitate to come right back with the over here after that was one of the worst beats of the season for sure. The total on this game at Toronto opened up at a 228.5 but has dropped to a 226.5 as of very early Tuesday morning. This is offering us great line value here. The Raptors have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 games. Toronto is off a loss at Detroit where they scored only 107 points. Prior to that poor effort they had scored 118 points or more in 12 of their last 16 games. The Rockets were held to 115 at Boston due to a horrific 4th quarter but Houston entered that game having scored 118 points or more in 9 of their 12 prior games. You can see from these numbers why it is logical to expect this game to get to the mid-230s and yet the posted total has dropped to mid-220s. In terms of technical value, the over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Toronto also has revenge here and that is a situation that has seen them go 13-5 to the over this season. The Raptors also are 7-1 to the over this season in their games against Southwest Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-05-19 | Xavier v. Butler OVER 138 | Top | 66-71 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Butler Bulldogs vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6 ET - Butler's game at Villanova stayed under the total but they entered that game having gone over the total in 4 straight games. All signs point to the over trend resuming here. The Bulldogs have allowed 49% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Also, Butler has allowed 48% or more from the field in 7 of their last 10 games. On Tuesday they are hosting a Xavier team that has been red hot with their shooting. The Musketeers have averaged well over 50% from the field in their last 4 games and also have been consistently knocking down close to 40% of their threes during this stretch. The over only went 2-2 in those 4 games and Xavier is on a long-term under trend but that is helping keep this total lower than it should be. In fact it opened up as high as 140 but is now down to a 138 as of early Tuesday morning. This has led to even more value with the over. The last 6 meetings between these teams have seen 5 go over the total. The Musketeers are on a long-term 9-5 run to the over in games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, Xavier is a long-term 9-5 to the over as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. When off a win against a Big East foe this season the Musketeers are 5-2 to the over. Also, there is a "tightener" in all this and that is that Xavier is a perfect 5-0 to the over the last 5 times they've been on the road in a game with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. Butler is 8-1 to the over the last 9 times they've been a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. In home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points, the Bulldogs are on a 6-1 run to the over. 10* OVER the total in Butler |
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03-03-19 | Rockets v. Celtics OVER 225 | Top | 115-104 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The very first number that popped up on this total offshore yesterday was a 229.5 and now, as of early this morning, the total has dropped down to as low as a 225 in many books. I understand the market perception here as the Celtics are known for their defense but lets not forget this is still a non-conference match-up. I like overs in non-conference match-ups as a general rule because you generally don't see the same defensive intensity you see in, for example, a key divisional battle. The last two meetings between these teams, including the match-up this season in Houston, have each totaled 240 points or more. The Rockets enter this game having averaged 118 points per game their last 13 games. Boston's last two home games have stayed under the total but, prior to this, the Celtics were on a 5-0 run to the over in home games. Also, even including their last 2 games (unders), Boston has allowed an average of 112 points per game in their last 11 games overall. Since the All Star break a Celtics offense that had been red hot before the break, has had its share of struggles. However, on Sunday they will take advantage of a Rockets defense that is allowing 111 points per game this season. This is the Celtics 3rd game of their homestand and I look for them to light it up. The Rockets have allowed 114.3 points per game in their last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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03-03-19 | Tulane v. Temple OVER 146 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #821 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Tulane Green Wave @ 2 ET - There is unlikely to be very much defensive intensity in this match-up. The Owls are one of the top teams in the AAC while the Green Wave are the worst team in the conference. We're getting a little extra line value here because this season's first match-up between these teams stayed under the total. Keep in mind, the over was on a 5-0 run prior to that. Tulane is also a long-term 17-5 to the over when playing with home loss revenge. The Green Wave also are 4-1 to the over this season as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. Temple is 9-4 to the over in home games this season. Also, the Owls are a long-term 4-1 to the over when facing teams that allow an average of 77 points or more per game. The Green Wave enter this game having allowed 82.3 points per game their last 7 games. Tulane has averaged a respectable 73.7 points per game their last 3 games. Temple has scored 81 points or more in 5 of its last 6 home games in American Athletic Conference action. The Owls have allowed 74.6 points per game their last 5 games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the 150s or even 160s early Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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02-27-19 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 226.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets are healthy and in rhythm again. Even so, their last 3 games have remained under the total. That is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. This one opened up at a 228 yesterday and has dropped to as low as a 226.5 as of early this morning. Houston has scored an average of 118 points per game in its last 7 road games. Charlotte is off an under versus Golden State but the Hornets entered the Warriors game having gone 6-2 to the over in their 8 prior games. Charlotte has averaged 118 points per game in it last 5 home games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the mid-230s! The Hornets lost by double digits to the defending champs on Monday and they are 9-4 to the over this season when off a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Each of the Hornets last 3 games have totaled at least 231 points. 3 of Houston's last 4 games have totaled at least 230 points. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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02-26-19 | Magic v. Knicks OVER 216 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are building confidence and that lends itself to a high-scoring game versus the Magic here. New York is off a big win over the Spurs Sunday. The Knicks have now won 2 of their last 3 games and also, New York has gone over the total in 2 of its last 3 home games. The Magic show strong defense to the marketplace as their field goal percentage allowed has been low in recent games. However, Orlando is off a huge upset win at Toronto on Sunday. In other words, this is a flat spot for the Magic as they go from facing the best team in the east to now facing the worst team in the east. Also, the pace for high-scoring games has certainly been there of late for Orlando. In the last 11 Magic games, the average field goal attempts for their opponents has been 92. Also, remember the upset win over the Raptors I just mentioned? The over is 13-3 this season when Orlando is off an outright upset as an underdog! Also, when the Magic are off a win by a double digit margin this season, the over has gone 10-4. As for the Knicks, the over is 2-0 the last two times they've been an underdog to Orlando. I look for another high scoring one here as the Knicks are installed as a sizable home dog here and bring another huge effort. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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02-25-19 | Warriors v. Hornets OVER 233.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #565 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - The Warriors are fired up off a loss in which they scored 112 points. That point total may not seem that bad but, keep in mind, Golden State entered that game having averaged 125 points per game their 4 prior home games. Now the Warriors are on the road and ready to run and gun their way to their typical success. I expect the result to be a solid over here at Charlotte. The Hornets have gone over the total in their last 3 games. Also, in home games, Charlotte is on a 4-0 run to the over and has averaged 119.5 points per game in those 4 contests as a host. The Hornets are 5-2 to the over this season against Pacific Division opponents and I look for Charlotte to improve to 8-4 to the over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Keep in mind, like the Warriors, the Hornets are off an outright loss as a favorite in their Saturday game. As for Golden State, the over is 13-5 when they are facing a team with a losing record this season. Also, the Warriors are 5-1 to the over this season against Southeast Division opponents and 15-8 to the over in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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02-24-19 | Villanova v. Xavier OVER 136 | Top | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #827 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Xavier Musketeers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 1:30 ET - Great value with this low total in my opinion. Each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 154 points and the posted total on this one has gone from a 137.5 to a 136 as of early game day morning. I like the fact that Villanova is off back to back losses (and has lost 3 of their last 4 games) and is very hungry for a strong performance. The Wildcats won't take their foot off the gas in this game even if they end up getting a double digit lead. Based on the current line (Nova -6), you can see that is a distinct possibility. As for Xavier, they aren't exactly known for their defense. The Musketeers are allowing 71.6 points per game this season. Also, Xavier has allowed an average of 90 points per game in their last 3 games against the Wildcats. That might have you wondering if one of those games went to OT. No, none of the 3 games were OT games. Musketeers simply won't be able to stop the fired up Wildcats here but I do look for Xavier to score very well. The Musketeers are averaging 75.5 points per game at home this season and the Wildcats defense has not been as strong this season. Villanova is allowing an average of 74 points per game in their last 6 road games! The over is 7-3 this season in Wildcats road games. Also, when off a loss in conference action, Villanova is 6-3 to the over their last 9 games. Xavier is 4-1 to the over this season when off a win in conference action and they come into this game with some added confidence thanks to a 3-game winning streak. Also, the Musketeers are 9-4 to the over their last 13 games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Xavier |
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02-23-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 233 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #549 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:35 ET - We're getting line value here with the total dropping from 237.5 yesterday afternoon to 233 this morning. Part of the reason for the line move is the James Harden injury situation. Should he not play here I still am fully comfortable with this play. However, I really would be surprised if the does not go. Facing the Warriors in a huge game and coming off a loss Thursday - so a day of rest in between - look for Harden to go here. For the next two weeks after this game the Rockets will be facing Eastern Conference teams. Truly this is Houston's last big game for awhile. Not only are they facing the World Champs, it is the same team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. This is a double revenge spot however for the Warriors as Houston has gotten the best of them in each of the first two meetings this season. The last meeting went over the total and, though it did go to overtime, keep in mind the teams did have 238 at the end of regulation. Look for another wild one Saturday night on ABC. Also, the over is 8-3 this season in Rockets games against Pacific Division opponents. I look for the Warriors over to improve to 11-6 this season when they are playing a game with revenge. After losing both regular season match-ups this season, the Warriors are NOT going to take their foot off the gas here no matter what the score is. So take advantage of the drop on this total and look for a high-scoring shootout! 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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02-23-19 | Indiana State v. Missouri State OVER 130 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #631 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Missouri State Bears vs Indiana State Sycamores @ 2 ET - This total opened up in the 135 range and has dropped to the 130 range. When these teams met last month the posted total was 148. This is the type of major adjustment I look for. Of course the Bears have been trending under all season long but the odds makers factored that into their opening number (135) already. Now the betting markets have forced the total to adjust another 5 points. This is how you get extra value in a situation like this because the numbers don't bear out that this game will finish below 130. The Sycamores are off a RARE gem on defense where they allowed just 50 points but that game was at home. In their last 4 road games, Indiana State has allowed an average of 80.5 points per game! Missouri State is off an embarrassing 63-43 home loss. That's right, the Bears scored just 43 points in their most recent game and it was at home. Prior to that Missouri State had scored at least 65 points in each of their 4 prior games. So here you have a situation where the road team is off one of their best defensive performances (rare) of the season and the home team is off one of their worst offensive performances (rare) of the season. The result here is tremendous line value. The first meeting this season stayed under the total but prior to that these teams had gone over in 5 straight meetings. Also, the over is 5-1 the last 6 times the Bears were the host in this series. 10* OVER the total in Missouri State |
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02-22-19 | Nuggets v. Mavs OVER 218.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #527 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets @ 8:35 ET - The Nuggets are a solid 16-8 to the over in their last 24 games. This total opened up at a 220 and has dropped to a 218.5 as of early this morning. We're getting good value here considering that the last two meetings between these teams in Dallas went over the total. Also, in their only meeting so far this season (at Denver) the teams combined for 244 points (and had 143 at the half). Don't be surprised if another shootout erupts tonight as I also like overs when it is the weaker team that is at home. In this case that is the Mavericks of course and, as you would expect, they shoot better when at home. As for Denver, they are one of the top teams in the league and score quite well most nights on anybody anywhere! The over is 10-4 in the Nuggets last 14 games against teams that are allowing an average of 106 or more on the season. The over is 20-10 in Denver's last 30 February games. All signs point to the over improving to 3-0 in the Mavs last 3 games. 10* OVER the total in Dallas |
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02-21-19 | Michigan v. Minnesota OVER 131.5 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7 ET - The Wolverines are known for defense. However, Michigan also has been known for having some sub-par performances on the road. That said, the Golden Gophers offensive production also has been much better when at home. Combining those factors we've got great value here with a low total posted on this game. The first meeting between these teams this season stayed well under the total but both teams had horrible shooting nights. Prior to that game however, the over was 3-0 in the 3 prior meetings and those games averaged 157 points. Now, consider this as well. The total in the first game between these teams was posted at 137. Now, because of the low-scoring result in that match-up, we're seeing totals as low as 131.5 for this game as of early this morning. This is more than 5 points less than the first match-up even though the fact that this game is at Minnesota means it should be higher scoring. Keep in mind, the over is 8-4 the last 12 times the Golden Gophers have hosted the Wolverines. Also, Michigan has allowed 71.3 points per game in their last 3 road games. As for Minnesota, they've had one ugly recent performance at home versus Wisconsin. However, other than that, the Golden Gophers have averaged 80.3 points per game in their last 6 home games! Minnesota is a much more confident team when at home and their shooting stats show that. Also, the over is 10-5 in Golden Gophers home games this season. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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02-20-19 | Massachusetts v. George Washington OVER 136 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Massachusetts Minutemen vs George Washington Colonials @ 7 ET - This is a type of late-season match-up that I look for when looking for games that should turn into a shootout. Here you have two teams both have disappointing seasons, with a history of high-scoring games when they meet, both shooting the ball well of late, and both struggling on the defensive end of late. Seriously, who is really to going to play intense defense here? There is just no high motivation for defense in this match-up and the 'kicker' for me was confirming that UMass guard Luwane Pipkins (hamstring) did upgraded from questionable to probable. I do expect him to be good to go here. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and all 5 games totaled at least 150 points. The Minutemen have shot over 40% from three point land in their last 3 games combined. However, Massachusetts has allowed 80 points or more in 2 of their last 3 games and they have allowed red hot hot shooting for their opponents in each of their last 3 games (despite the Davidson game being an ugly score, the shooting was there). As for George Washington, they've shot 40% or better from three point land in 3 straight games and all 3 went over the total. The Colonials, however, have allowed 82.3 points per game in their last 3 games as they surrendered hot shooting over this 3-game stretch. The over is 15-8 when UMass is off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. Also, February games for the Minutemen are on a 15-3 run to the over. The over is 9-3 this season in George Washington games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, the Colonials are 10-2 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Ideal set-up here for a shootout. 10* OVER the total in George Washington |
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02-19-19 | Maryland v. Iowa OVER 147 | Top | 66-65 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Big Ten Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #625 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa Hawkeyes vs Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The earliest total that first popped up on this game was a 151.5 and now, as of early game day morning, the total has dropped to as low as a 147 in some books. I am happy to grab the extra value here. The over is 2-1 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and the lone under did total 150 points. In other words, at the current number posted on this game, the over would be a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings. Look for the over to improve to 7-4 the last 11 times that Maryland has been on the road with a line ranging from a pick'em to a +3. The Terrapins have not had an over since mid-January - a stretch of NINE straight games. Their highest posted O/U in their last 5 games has been a 138. So the odds makers were fools to set this total at 151.5 as an opener, right? You guys know how I feel about this. When something looks "off" to the betting public it is usually for good reason! Keep in mind, Iowa is at home here and loaded with confidence as they continue to find ways to win games even when it takes late game "magic". That said, the Hawkeyes will continue to play at a fast pace here and will dictate the pace of this game with the Terps. Iowa's most recent game, at Rutgers, resulted in an under, but the over was 5-2 in the Hawkeyes 7 prior games. That's because Iowa averaged 81 points per game during that stretch and that is perfectly in line with their season average for points per game! The Hawkeyes are one of the highest-scoring teams in the Big Ten and are averaging 83.3 points per game at home this season. The over is 7-1 the last 8 times the Hawkeyes have been at home with their line ranging from a pick'em to a -3. Look for a shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Iowa |
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02-18-19 | Illinois v. Wisconsin OVER 135 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #853 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Illinois Illini @ 8 ET - The Illini are off a low-scoring upset win at Ohio State. Illinois is now 6-3 SU in their last 9 games. Also, prior to that rare low-scoring result with the Buckeyes, the Illini were on a 7-2 run to the over in their 9 previous games. One of the few ugly games during that stretch was when they lost at home to Wisconsin. In fact, other than the low-scoring win over the Buckeyes and the low-scoring loss to the Buckeyes, the Illini have scored 71 points or more in all their games since mid-January. In fact, in those 7 games Ilinois has averaged 81 points per game. Keep in mind, versus Wisconsin, the Illini should have scored just fine but they were completely off in that one. Illinois shot just 35.5% from the field, 54.5% from the free throw line, and 19% from three point land! Not only that but the Badgers Ethan Happ was limited by foul trouble and had one of his worst games of the season. Note that, even with all that, the game still totaled 132 points! That is why I feel we're getting great line value here with the low total posted on this one. Illinois is playing with a lot more confidence now than they were a month ago when these teams met in Champaign. I expect the Illini to get their fair share of points as a result but, keep in mind, this is still a team that is allowing 77 points per game on the road this season. The strength of Illinois certainly is not defense. Also, the Badgers have long been known for dominating the Illini and have scored an average of 75 points in the last 3 meetings. Wisconsin is 4-1 to the over when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Badgers are 4-1 to the over as a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Illinois is 4-1 to the over as a road dog in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin |
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02-16-19 | Fresno State v. New Mexico OVER 147.5 | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Fresno State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. The first meeting this season at Fresno State saw the Lobos score 70 points despite shooting only 31.9% from the field. Both teams were horrible from beyond the arc in that game too as they combined for a ridiculously bad 12 of 57 performance from three point land. The point is that, even with all that poor shooting, the game totaled 152 points. Why? Because these teams are known for playing at a great pace in their meetings and, keep in mind, the two prior meetings saw those games average 175 points! This is also the type of situation I love to look for with overs. You have the lesser team, New Mexico, at home and seeking revenge. The Lobos are averaging 80 points per game at home this season. They'll look to win this game with a red hot shooting night and they are known to "run and gun" at home. Of course Fresno State is happy to play the same pace here as they are off a low-scoring win versus Boise State but the Bulldogs previously scored an average of 80 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Lobos confidence at home is very high right now as they have scored 83 points or more in 4 of their 6 home games since the 1st of the year. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Lobos games with a posted total in the 140s this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times Fresno State has played at New Mexico. The Lobos give the Bulldogs all they can handle here and the result is a shootout. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico |
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02-14-19 | Hornets v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 89-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets are off a loss at Indiana Monday but held the Pacers to just 99 points. The over is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times Charlotte is off a game in which they held their opponent under 100 points. The Magic are off a big road win at New Orleans where they held the Pelicans to 88 points. The over is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times Orlando is off a game in which they held their opponents to 90 points or less. The pacing for an over has certainly been there in recent Magic games as they've allowed their opponents more than 90 field goal attempts in 7 of their last 8 games. Also, Orlando has had at least 90 field goal attempts in 7 of its last 9 games. The Hornets have fared extremely well against the Magic in recent seasons and, before being held to just 32.2% from the field by the Pacers Monday, Charlotte had scored 115 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Orlando's win at New Orleans was an upset win as they were a dog to the Pelicans. That certainly holds significance here as the Magic are a perfect 11-0 to the over when off an outright win as an underdog. That means we have over trending of a combined 22-0 here supporting this play. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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02-14-19 | Drexel v. James Madison OVER 147 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #611 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in James Madison Dukes vs Drexel Dragons @ 7 ET - When Drexel travels away from Philly they have shown a strong tendency for leaving their defense at home! The Dragons have allowed insane numbers on the road: 82.8 ppg, 51.6% from the field, and 42.9% from 3-point land! Another weakness of Drexel is they have a weak bench so their starters tend to get over-used. However, they are all very capable scorers (all 5 averaging in double digits on the season) and the Dragons starting five is well-rested here. Drexel hasn't played since Saturday and they shot 53.7% from the field against the College of Charleston but the Dragons also allowed 52.5% from the field in a 2-point loss that totaled 170 points. We have great value with the rather low total posted on this one as Drexel has shown a tendency all season long to get involved in very high-scoring games away from home. James Madison is likely to oblige the "run and gun" style in this one as the Dukes, even though they allowed only 66 points at Towson, allowed 51.1% shooting! James Madison has allowed 49% or better from the field in 5 of their last 7 games. The Dukes, prior to holding Towson to 66, allowed an average of 79.5 in their 6 prior games. The over was 5-2 in James Madison's 7 games prior to the Towson game staying under the total. The Dukes are averaging 76.6 ppg at home this season and have revenge from losing at Drexel this season and from getting knocked out of the conference tourney by the Dragons a year ago. That means they won't take their foot off the gas here but Drexel can match them bucket for bucket. In other words, plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in James Madison |
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02-11-19 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 210.5 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The very first numbers that popped up on this total offshore were as high as a 212.5 in some books. It has since moved down about a bucket from the opener and I like the value here that we're getting in a game where neither team is highly motivated to play much defense. That's because the Cavaliers and Knicks are both in the running for the #1 spot in the NBA draft and are simply playing out the string on very disappointing seasons. I am well aware of the fact that New York has been on a long-term trend of unders and that the Cavs have also been trending under. However, there is plenty of reason to believe that this one plays out quite loose and high-scoring. Cleveland has allowed 114.6 points per game in their last 11 home games. The over is 11-5 in the Cavaliers last 16 home games. The Knicks are allowing 115.7 points per game in their road games on the season! Both teams have unimpressive offensive production but when defenses are this bad there is going to be plenty of quality looks at the basket. This is especially true in a game that is likely to be played a little "loosey goosey" with very little attention to detail on defense. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in Cavaliers games against Atlantic Division opponents and also the over improves to 4-1 in the rare situation of the Cavs being a favorite in a game. Two bad teams, not a lot of defense, and a shootout breaks out in this one! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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02-11-19 | Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 142 | Top | 69-61 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #855 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7 ET - There are 3 teams that are clearly the top teams in the ACC. That group includes these two matched up here as well as Duke. There is no doubt that the Tar Heels are very similar in style to the Blue Devils. This is the only regular season meeting between North Carolina and Virginia. That said, lets look at how the Cavaliers fared against Duke this season. They just had their 2nd match-up of the season on Saturday. The Blue Devils scorched the Cavs from three point land. In the prior meeting this season, at Duke, the Cavaliers held Duke in check but gave up too much inside. That is why the Blue Devils averaged 76.5 points per game this season in their two games against the vaunted defense of Virginia. Note that UNC is averaging 88.3 points per game on the season. You can see where I am going with this. The fact is the Tar Heels are going to "get theirs" in this game in terms of scoring plenty of points. They do not want to let UVA control the tempo here and, since this game is at North Carolina, I do expect the Tar Heels to have quite a say so in the tempo of this game. The Heels will look to run and gun and create quick transition scoring opportunities. The Cavaliers defensive mindset is still shaken from getting blitzed by Duke and now they have to face a team that is averaging even more points per game than Duke this season. This is a tough match-up for the Cavs but I do expect them to score plenty. Virginia has shot 47% from the field on the road and averaged 70 points per game away from home this season. The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 3-1 in Tar Heels home games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points. North Carolina wants revenge for last season's ACC Tourney loss to the Cavaliers and the Tar Heels know they will NOT get revenge by playing a plodding slow style here. In other words, this game has "up tempo" written all over it! 10* OVER the total in North Carolina |
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02-10-19 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 223 | Top | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The Magic are off a huge upset win at Milwaukee last night as they held the Bucks to just 83 points. You know it will be easy for them to now fall flat on the defensive end of the courts as they go from facing one of the best teams in the East to facing a team that is nearly 20 games under .500 on the season. Yes the Hawks are a division rival but it is not much of a rivalry when a team is having an awful season. Atlanta did put up 120 points yesterday against Charlotte but the Hawks, even though they were at home, allowed 129 points. As bad as that sounds it is truly not that unusual. The over is 10-4 in Atlanta's last 14 games and a lot of it has to do with porous defense as well as playing at a fast pace. The Hawks have now allowed an average of 122 points per game their last 14 games. The Magic are favored by a bucket here. So if the Hawks continue to play as they have been for the past month now and allow 122 here and the odds maker is right about the spread (as they so often are) this could be a 122-120 game. That puts us nearly 20 points over the posted number on this game. The total was as high as a 226 with early numbers but has been pushed down to a 223. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move in this one! Prior to yesterday's dominating road win at Milwaukee, the over was actually on a 4-1 run in Orlando's last 5 games away from home. How likely is another "grinder" for the Magic after yesterday's low-scoring win? VERY unlikely! The over is 8-1 this season in Orlando games when the Magic are off a game in which they allowed 90 points or less. Look for a shootout here! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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02-10-19 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame OVER 128 | Top | 59-69 | Push | 0 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #837 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 6 ET - There is a long history of match-ups between Notre Dame and Georgia Tech staying under the total. That continued in this season's earlier match-up at Georgia Tech 3 weeks ago. The Yellow Jackets are known for getting involved in low-scoring grinder type games. Looking at the final score of 63-61 in the Jackets win over the Fighting Irish 3 weeks ago it looks like Georgia Tech was very successful in slowing down Notre Dame. However, when one digs a little deeper one finds that the Irish actually attempted 65 shots in the game including 30 three pointers! So it wasn't really the tempo of the game that kept it under the total, it was the fact that the Irish shot very poorly in that game. I don't expect a repeat of that here. The Fighting Irish are not offensive juggernauts but they do average a solid 73 points per game when at home this season. They also are allowing 68 points per game at home. It will be Notre Dame, on their home floor, dictating the pace in this game and I expect us to get well above the 128 that is currently posted on this one. You can see that Fighting Irish games tend to total around 140 points and they're very likely to shoot much better in this rematch. Also, the over is a long-term 29-16 (including 6-2 in recent seasons) when the Irish are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The over is 6-3 when Georgia Tech enters a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. 10* OVER the total in Notre Dame |
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02-09-19 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 221 | Top | 105-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs @ 5:05 ET - The over is 8-1 in the Spurs last 9 games. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams and that includes 4-1 the last 5 times they've met in Utah. The Jazz are a long-term 10-3 to the over in home games with a posted total of 220 or more. In other words, though a big total like this on a game in Utah is quite rare, don't let the big total scare you away from the over. The Spurs have been putting up huge points but can't stop anybody. Also, the Jazz are seeking revenge for a loss at San Antonio in the most recent meeting between these teams. Keep in mind, Utah has been known for some huge shooting performances at home this season and that includes putting up 139 the last time they hosted the Spurs. Also, the over is 12-1 this season in San Antonio's road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. As you can see with both of these teams, when big totals are posted on their games, it has proven to be justified nearly every time and I feel strongly that will be the case again here. The desperate Spurs have lost 3 straight games so they're not going to back down here but they'll have to do it with offense because their defense has had plenty of issues of late and that means this one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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02-08-19 | St. Louis v. St. Joe's OVER 131.5 | Top | 61-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #851 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Joseph's Hawks vs St Louis Billikens @ 7 ET - These teams have a history of playing to the under in recent meetings. However, there is plenty of reason to believe that this one snaps that trend. When these teams met three weeks ago at St Louis, the Hawks shot only 29.5% from the field and allowed the Billikens to shoot only 38.6% from the field. Even with those very ugly numbers the game totaled 125 points. This total, as of early game day morning, is currently as low as 131.5 points and I feel we're getting great value here when you consider the first result between these teams. The reason is because St Joseph's will look to increase the pace on their home floor and also it is highly unlikely that we'll see such poor shooting in the rematch. How unlikely? The Hawks have allowed at least 43% from the field in each of their five games since the loss at St Louis and 4 of the 5 games saw St Joseph's opponents shoot 46% or better from the field. The Hawks allowed 73.6 points per game in those 5 games. Also, St Joseph's other 7 games since mid-January (other than the ugly performance against the Billikens) have seen them held under 40% from the field just 1 other time. In the other 6 games the Hawks averaged 70.3 points per game. You can see why I am expecting this game to get to the 140 to 145 range tonight. The Billikens have allowed their last 3 opponents to average 48% from the field and St Louis has shot 42% or better in 3 straight games. The Hawks are hungry for revenge here and they know they can't afford to let the Billikens turn this game into a "grinder" so I expect a lot of pressure and that can turn into turnovers and quick transition points as well as breakdowns in defense when St Louis beats the pressure. In other words, there is going to be some quick scoring runs throughout this game in my opinion. The over is a perfect 3-0 when St Louis is a road favorite of 3 points or less. The over is 12-5 in St Joseph's February games. Also, the Hawks are 3-0 to the over as a home dog of 3 points or less. 10* OVER the total in St Joseph's |
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02-07-19 | Penn State v. Ohio State OVER 131 | Top | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Buckeyes as they lost to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Conference Tournament in March. That said, Ohio State is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one and they are known for scoring very well on their home floor. The Buckeyes have averaged 77.3 points per game in their home games this season. However, something about Ohio State always seems to bring out the best in Penn State and the Nittany Lions have averaged 75 points per game in their last 4 games against the Buckeyes. I would not be surprised to see PSU trading buckets with OSU for much of this game and we should see some great scoring runs throughout this contest. The first total that popped up on this game offshore was 132.5 and it dropped to a 131 as of early this morning and I feel we have great value here with the over. Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 135 points. The over is 8-3 in Penn State's last 11 visits to Ohio State. The over is also 5-1 in the Buckeyes last 6 home games entering this contest. Though the Nittany Lions have mostly trended under this season, the over is 3-1 the last 4 times Penn State has been a road underdog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The over is also 3-1 this season in Buckeyes home games versus teams with a losing record. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Ohio State |
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02-06-19 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 230 | Top | 129-148 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #563 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - Huge total posted on this game but absolutely justified. The Wizards recently had one strong defensive game at home against Indiana. In their other 4 games since January 27th, Washington has allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field in all 4 games. The Wizards have allowed an average of 129 points per game in those 4 games. One of those games was at home against the Bucks and the game totaled 246 points. I would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. Milwaukee did allow only 94 points in their next game but it certainly wasn't due to a lack of pace! The Bucks hosted the Nets and Brooklyn actually attempted 102 shots from the field but it was simply 'one of those nights' and the Nets made just 32.4% of their shots. While fast pace is expected again here, you can expect the Wizards will shoot very well. Washington has shot 49% from the field their last 4 games and averaged 116.6 points per game their last 5 games. The over is 17-7 this season in Wizards games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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02-03-19 | Stanford v. California OVER 145 | Top | 84-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #833 Saturday CBB 10* Top Play OVER the total in California Golden Bears vs Stanford Cardinal @ 4 ET - Those who appreciate strong defensive play in college hoops might want to look elsewhere on Saturday. The Cardinal are allowing 74 points per game on the road this season. The Golden Bears are allowing 50% from the field, 38.5% from three point land, and 79 points per game on the season! Each of the last 3 regular season meetings between these teams has resulted in an over and this total on Sunday is low enough to fully expect another one. The over is 4-2 in Stanford's last 6 road games. The over is 4-2 in California's last 6 home games. The average points scored in the last 6 road games for the Cardinal is 151. For Cal, 5 of their last 6 home games have totaled at least 146 points. That is why the small drop on this total this morning carries even a little more significance for our purposes here. In terms of long-term trending, the over is 11-3 in Stanford's February games the last two years. The over is 4-1 when the Golden Bears are playing with 7 or more days of rest between games and also 4-1 when the Bears are a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Look all these trends to continue here on Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in California |
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02-03-19 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 226 | Top | 129-134 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #527 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 2:05 ET - The recent match-up history between these teams has trended under and that is the direction many will be looking in this one as a result. However, the way these two have been playing of late and the fact this is a non-conference match-up (generally a little less defensive intensity in those), has me looking for a solid over in this match-up. Both teams are red hot. The Celtics have won 8 of their last 9 games and averaged 116 points per game in doing so. The Thunder have won 7 straight games and they've reached the century mark in each of their last dozen games. In fact, Oklahoma City has averaged 124 points per game in these 12 games. Two of those games did go to OT but if we remove those points for the Thunder they are still averaging, in regulation, 122 points per game those dozen games! The over is 10-2 in those 12 OKC games! The over is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's last 9 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. The over is 14-4 this season in Thunder games when they are coming off a non-conference game. The over is 13-5 this season when the Celtics face a team with a winning record. History says under but the current play of these two teams absolutely suggests otherwise. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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02-02-19 | Bucks v. Wizards OVER 227 | Top | 131-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The odds makers made a huge mistake, right? The first total that popped up on this game was a 231.5 on Friday afternoon. Of course with the history of unders between these teams and the perceived "mistake" the total has been driven down to a 227 as of early Saturday morning. I am happy to jump on the over and grab the added value here. The Bucks are off a very strong defensive effort to get a big win over Toronto, the top team in the East. Milwaukee entered that game having allowed an average of 111.5 points per game in their two prior games. As for the Wizards, they are off a surprisingly strong effort on the defensive end as they held the Pacers to 89 points in their win over Indiana. Prior to that, Washington had allowed 124 points per game in their two prior games. While one could argue that those were on the road, also note that prior to beating Indiana the Wizards allowed 126 points in their most recent home game. Both the Bucks and Wizards have been scoring a ton of points and now coming off big wins that involved huge defensive efforts I expect a letdown on D here and an all-out offensive onslaught in this game to result! Note that the over is 21-12 when Milwaukee is off an upset win as an underdog and that includes 3-1 this season. The Bucks are also on a 29-10 run to the over in Saturday games including 6-2 to the over this season. The over is 13-5 in Wizards home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. Washington is 6-1 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Wizards are also on a 23-10 run to the over in Saturday games including 6-1 to the over this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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02-01-19 | Michigan v. Iowa OVER 141.5 | Top | 59-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #861 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7 ET - The fact this game is at Iowa makes a big difference. This is a contrarian play because Michigan is allowing just 56 points per game this season. If that average were to hold true and they win the game by 4 points as odds makers are calling for, you've got a 60-56 game that falls well short of this total. So the odds makers must have made a big mistake, right? Of course not! The fact is that Iowa is fully capable of putting up big points (they average 82 per game this season) and this is particularly true when they are at home where the shooters are even more comfortable. The over is actually 7-1 the last 8 times these teams have met at Iowa. The Hawkeyes also lost to the Wolverines in the Big Ten tourney last season so there is extra motivation here - and, by the way, that neutral site game also went over the total. The Hawkeyes enter this game off a defeat and the over is 4-0 this season when they are off a Big Ten loss. The over is 9-5 in Michigan's February games the past two years. The long-term trending of these games going over when the Hawkeyes are the host continues here. 10* OVER the total in Iowa |
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01-31-19 | Xavier v. Georgetown OVER 152.5 | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #635 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Georgetown Hoyas vs Xaviers Musketeers @ 8 ET - The last 7 meetings between these teams have all gone over the total. In addition to that perfect 7-0 O/U record, the over is 11-3 this season in Georgetown's games against teams with a winning record. The Hoyas are on an 8-1 run to the over in their last 9 games overall. Georgetown is averaging 87 points per game this season but their defense certainly has not been overly impressive. That is where Xavier will look to take advantage. The Musketeers are off a loss versus Marquette Saturday where they had a big lead but perhaps got a little too complacent with hit and they paid the ultimate price as the Golden Eagles rallied for the win. Xavier won't make the same mistake here and they'll push the pace all game long and certainly the Hoyas are proven to enjoy the "run and gun" game this season. The over is 4-1 in the Musketeers last 5 games. Xavier has struggled to stop the 3-point shot this season and the Hoyas are averaging 38% from beyond the arc in their home games. In other words, look for a high-paced shootout and I am happy to take advantage of the line move here too as this one opened up at a 155 but is down to a 152.5 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Georgetown |
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01-30-19 | Mavs v. Knicks OVER 217 | Top | 114-90 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The Mavericks are off a strong scoring effort but fell just short in their loss versus the Raptors Sunday. Dallas is 8-5 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Also, the Mavs are seeking revenge in this games as they lost when they hosted the Knicks earlier this season. As a result, look for Dallas to go hard here and not take their foot off the gas even if they get a big lead. The Mavericks are 5-2 to the over this season when playing with home loss revenge. As for New York, they didn't score well in their most recent home game but that was against defensive-minded Miami. Prior to that game the Knicks 4 prior home games saw them average 107.5 points per game. Also, their match-ups with Western Conference opponents are known for being high-scoring. The over is 10-5 this season in New York's non-conference games. Dallas has gone 5-2 to the over this season in games against Atlantic Division opponents. The Mavericks first game with the Knicks totaled 224 points and I fully expect a similar total to be amassed in the rematch as the situation is ideal for a high-scoring game. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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01-29-19 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 218.5 | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - I know these teams have trended under in recent weeks. I am also aware of the fact that recent meetings between these teams each of the last few seasons have trended under the total as well. However, in typical contrarian fashion here, I am backing the over. Of course it is not without plenty of good reason. First off the Bucks have averaged 114.3 points per game in their 3 games against the Pistons this season. As for Detroit, though they struggled in their games at Milwaukee, they have averaged 107 points per game the last two times they've hosted the Bucks. The Pistons made 14 three pointers in their most recent home contest versus the Bucks and, like most teams, perform better on the offensive end when at home. Detroit is also well rested here and the over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Pistons entered a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Detroit's Tuesday games. As for the Bucks, they're fired up off a loss at Oklahoma City. Milwaukee is 29-14 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The Bucks won't take their foot off the gas in this one against the Pistons. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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01-29-19 | Kansas v. Texas OVER 139 | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #619 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 7 ET - The very first total that popped up on this game was 141 yesterday. It has been adjusted down to as low as a 139 now. The last 7 meetings between these teams have all totaled at least 142 points. That's 7 straight game totals in match-ups between these teams that have eclipsed the total on this game. I understand the mindset that the Longhorns have to bounce back at home after giving up 98 points at Georgia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge this past weekend. However, Texas giving up high percentage shots on defense has been a recurring them in recent weeks. The O/U in Horns games is now 4-1 their last 5 and that includes 2-0 in home games. The Longhorns have allowed an average of 76.6 points per game during this stretch. As for Kansas, they employ a 4-guard lineup and of course that can cause some issues defending the paint and rebounding. The Jayhawks can score just fine though as they're averaging 77.3 points per game on the season. However, Kansas has allowed 72.5 points per game their last 4 games and the Longhorns have averaged 78 points per game in their last 3 meetings with the Jayhawks. That includes the 80-78 loss at Kansas two weeks ago. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Also, the over is 7-0 in Jayhawks games with a posted total between 130 and 139.5 points. The Kansas over is also 9-3 this season when off a non-conference game. The over is 5-2 in the Longhorns last 7 home games. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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01-28-19 | Warriors v. Pacers OVER 226 | Top | 132-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #529 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - The Warriors are off of an under but the over was 9-2 in Golden State's 11 prior games. The Pacers enter this game with a record of 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games. The teams combined for 232 points in their most recent meeting in Indiana. The Warriors have been red hot and scoring a ton of points. Golden State is averaging 129 points their last 12 games. If they hit that "average" here and win by 9 as the odds makers are projecting you're talking about a 129-120 game. I am not saying we're going to see 249 points here but I do feel that this number shows we have some great value with playing the over in this match-up. The Pacers have had just one bad game offensively in their last 7 games. In the other 6 games as a host since Christmas, Indiana has averaged 119 points per game. Truly one could make the argument this is going to be a 129 to 119 type of game. The over is 13-7 in Golden State's road games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times Indiana has entered a game off a road loss. They bounce back with a strong performance on the offensive end on their home floor but they aren't going to stop a Warriors team that will go all out in looking to cap a perfect 5-0 road trip. Golden State won't hold back here as they have two off days on deck before facing the Sixers Thursday. Also, the Warriors are seeking revenge for getting swept by the Pacers last season so they won't take their foot off the gas either. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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01-27-19 | Raptors v. Mavs OVER 219 | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Mavericks games have resulted in unders in 5 straight games and 13 of their last 15. So how I am playing this one? Contrarian of course and going over the total but it is with good reason. First off Dallas has looked much better in their last two games since Dennis Smith Jr returned. He and Luka Doncic give the Mavs a powerful 1-2 punch. As for the Raptors, Kawhi Leonard finally came back after 4 games off. Though the Raptors lost that game at Houston they did put up 119 points. With Toronto entering this game off back to back losses and Leonard able to quickly shake the rust off in his first game back, this one is likely to be played at a great pace with plenty of points. The Raptors have averaged 117 points per game in their last 13 games. They are favored by 5 points here. Toronto winning this game by 117-112 certainly would not come as a surprise and that is a full 10 points over the posted total on this game. The Raptors are 5-1 to the over in games against Southwest Division opponents this season. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the over in Sunday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Dallas |
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01-27-19 | Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 151 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #835 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 5 ET - Iowa is averaging 82 points per game this season. Minnesota is averaging 80 points per game at home this season. The over is a long-term 17-9 when the Hawkeyes are off a Big Ten loss and that includes a perfect 3-0 this season. Also, when on the road in a game with a line ranging from pick'em to +3, Iowa has gone a perfect 3-0 to the over the past two seasons. Minnesota is 4-1 to the over the past two seasons in home games in which their line ranges from pick'em to -3. The Golden Gophers are also 3-0 to the over this season when off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less. Minny goes from facing the Big Ten's top defense (Michigan) to one of the Big Ten's worst (Iowa). The Hawkeyes go from facing a strong Michigan State defense to facing a Gophers D that, prior to the low-scoring grudge match with the Wolverines, had allowed 78 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Golden Gophers are allowing 38% three pointers at home this season and Iowa is a strong team from beyond the arc. This one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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01-25-19 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 153 | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Butler Bulldogs @ 8:30 ET - The very first number that popped up offshore on this total was a 157 and it has since plummeted to as low as 152.5 in some spots. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the over here but it is, of course, not without reason. First off, Butler is 7-0 to the over this season in conference games. Secondly, Creighton is 3-0 to the over this season when playing with road loss revenge. The Bluejays lost at Butler earlier this month and that game was the 2nd straight in this series that flew over the total. Look for this one to make it 3 in a row. Creighton relies heavily on knocking down their 3-pointers and they are hitting 47.7% from beyond the arc in home games this season. Butler is also having a solid season from 3-point land as the Bulldogs are hitting 37.4% of their threes on the season. In fact, Butler has averaged better than 40% from three point land in their last 4 games and two of those games were on the road as well! Amazingly, the Bluejays have hit 40% or better from three point land in 9 of their 10 home games this season. The lone exception was against Ohio State and they still hit 36% against the Buckeyes! Creighton is loaded with shooters and they particularly like the "run and gun" approach when playing at home. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season in Bluejays games against teams with a winning record. Take advantage of the drop on this total from the opener. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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01-25-19 | Heat v. Cavs OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-94 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #567 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Heat are off back to back games where they were held under 100 points. The last 3 times that Miami has entered a game off back to back games where they scored 101 points or less, the Heat are a perfect 3-0 to the over in their next game. Facing a Cavaliers team that is a horrific 9-40 SU this season and allowing 114 points per game is certain to help Miami's offensive production get back on track. Keep in mind, the over is 2-0 this season Heat games versus the Cavs and Miami averaged 117.5 points in those two games. Also, prior to back to back unders for Miami in a pair of low-scoring losses, the Heat were on a 9-4 run to the over. Cleveland is on a 13-4 run to the over in their last 17 games. Also, the Heat are 8-4 to the over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Miami is also 13-8 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record this season. Cleveland is 8-2 to the over this season in Friday games. Also, the Cavaliers are a long-term 51-25 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Look for Miami to get a big lead in this game and then coast to the win which means a very relaxed game without a lot of intense defense as this game progresses. That should lead to plenty of points and the Heat, off back to back losses, aren't going to slow down here even with a big lead. Take advantage of the low total posted on this one. Yesterday this total was high as a 211.5 when it first was coming up. It's dropped a bucket from there and was already a great value at that number. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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01-24-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 237 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Anthony Davis is still out for the Pelicans. While the first two games he missed both resulted in unders I expect that trend to reverse here. Davis is one of the top defensive big men in the league and his absence will have the Thunder attacking the rim early and often in this one. Oklahoma City has been on a scoring tear and they love to play run and gun so I also don't expect too much of a concern from the Thunder in terms of paying attention to defense on the other end of the floor. In other words, this one results in a high-scoring shootout. The over is 5-2 this season when New Orleans is playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the over is 7-1 in OKC's last 8 games overall. Though this total may seem too big, note that the Thunder are 10-3 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Oklahoma City did lose at New Orleans last month so they are seeking revenge here and they are the healthier team (since Davis is out). That being the case, and catching the Pelicans in a back to back, I have no doubt that the Thunder will employ a game plan of running N.O. up and down the court all game long. Also, since it is a revenge game, OKC won't take their foot off the gas either and that means a ton of points scored in this one. Also, the Thunder have two off days on deck after this game so there is no holding back in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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01-24-19 | Memphis v. Temple OVER 157.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #609 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Memphis Tigers @ 7 ET - The very first total that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon was a 160 and not surprisingly the under starting getting hit and it has dropped as low as a 157.5 this morning. The fact is that this total may seem too big but Temple is at home and is going to get big points here but the problem is they are one of the worst teams in the AAC in a number of defensive categories. One they do excel in is steals which of course leads to a lot of transition points. However, a gambling mentality on defense (going for those steals) also can lead to open looks and easy scoring opportunities for the opposition when Temple fails to get the steal. Facing a Memphis team that is the top scoring team in the AAC means this game is going to be played with a great tempo for over players. The Tigers are averaging 84 points per game this season. The Owls are a 5 point favorite here. If Memphis hits their average and Temple wins by the margin the odds maker is suggesting you've got an 89-84 game that crushes the posted total by 15 points here. In other words, we've got some value here with this total in my opinion. The Tigers love to play up tempo basketball and the Owls will be happy to oblige on their home floor. Temple, prior to their 77-70 loss to Penn, had scored over 80 points in 4 of their last 6 home games. Memphis, other than neutral court games, has scored at least 76 points in every single game this season! That is another way to look at this total too. If the Tigers hit that mark of 76 (they've never failed to at home or in a true road game this season) and the Owls win by 5, you're already at 157 points here. Again, you can see why I am liking the value here in a game that many will perceive to have "too high" of a total. Memphis is 8-4 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Owls, since the calendar turned the page to 2019, have gone a perfect 6-0 to the over. Look for 7 straight here! 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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01-22-19 | Blazers v. Thunder OVER 228 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - The Blazers are off a win at Utah last night that stayed under the total. Of course Jazz games are known for trending toward being lower scoring match-ups. However Portland was on a 5-1 run to the over entering last night's contest and I fully expect the high-scoring ways to resume at Oklahoma City tonight. Why? Because the Thunder certainly have been in run and gun mode for an extended stretch. With their big win at New York yesterday afternoon, OKC is on a 6-1 run to the over. Also, the Thunder are on a 13-6 run to the over this season as a home favorite. With this game played at a good pace and with some weary legs on defense considering this is a back to back spot, look for little resistance from the D for long stretches in this one. The recent over trending of both teams resumes in this one Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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01-22-19 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky OVER 144.5 | Top | 55-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Two very talented teams matched up here and they are loaded with balanced scoring. I don't see the Bulldogs as being able to slow down the Wildcats scorers at Kentucky. In fact the over is 5-0 in Mississippi State's last 5 road games at Kentucky. Though the Bulldogs won't be able to stop the Cats here, note that Mississippi State ranks 2nd in the SEC for number of 3-pointers made this season. Both of these teams have been lighting it up overall from the floor as well as from beyond the arc. Kentucky is averaging 80 points per game and the Bulldogs are averaging 79 points per game this season. Yes there will be some defensive intensity in this key SEC battle but note that this can also lead to turnovers and quick transition points and both of these teams have been lethal at making teams pay for mistakes. Overall, Mississippi State enters this game having gone 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games. Another key factor here is that the spread on this game has the Wildcats favored by about a half dozen points. This game is indeed likely to be quite close late and that means plenty of late fouls and trips the free throw line could result as the trailing team won't give up without a fight. Again, the ability of each team to knock down threes will also be key at that late stage in the game should we need "scramble points" like this in the final minutes. 10* OVER the total in Kentucky |
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01-21-19 | Nebraska v. Rutgers OVER 134.5 | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I lost with Nebraska on Thursday when their much improved offense fell short against the stifling defense of Michigan State. After that result, I had a strong feeling I would be involved with the Cornhuskers again in their very next game and, sure enough, we've got great value here. The value in this one lies with the total. I know that this series with Rutgers has a recent history of staying under the total but Nebraska is going to have a breakout game on offense in this one but I am not about to lay a double digit spread on the road. This is one of those solid situations for an over as the road team is the superior team and highly motivated off a loss while the lesser team is at home where, as usual, most poor teams tend to score better. Rutgers will "get theirs" tonight but they're not going to be able to stop a Nebraska team that is averaging 77.7 points per game this season. Keep mind, the Scarlet Knights defense has not been as strong this season as it was last year and they're giving up a higher percentage on outside shots. The over is 3-0 this season when Nebraska is off a Big Ten loss. Prior to the Huskers ugly effort on offense versus the Spartans, they had shot 44% or better from the field in 12 straight games! The over was 5-1 this season in Rutgers Big Ten games before their low-scoring home loss to Northwestern. Including the loss to the Wildcats, the Scarlet Knights are allowing 75 points per game in Big Ten action this season. The Knights do shoot a little better when at home, the game versus Northwestern an exception, but they've also been getting lit up from beyond the arc and, overall, allowed 48% or higher from the field in 3 of their 4 games prior to the loss to the Wildcats. Look for the Huskers to get a big lead in this game and, because of being off a loss, they'll keep their foot on the gas but it is also natural to relax on defense with a big lead. The result should be a game that gets well into the 140s. 10* OVER the total in Rutgers |
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01-20-19 | Suns v. Wolves OVER 227 | Top | 114-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:05 ET - The Timberwolves are playing this game with revenge and that is a situation that has seen the over go 15-7 this season. The Suns are in a tough back to back spot as they were at Charlotte yesterday where they got crushed and allowed 135 points. This is nothing new as it has been a miserable season for Phoenix and they've allowed 121 points per game in their last 6 road games. The Wolves need a huge win to bounce back after back to back losses and with the Suns putting up little resistance, Minnesota can essentially name the score here. It will be a high-scoring win (likely by double digits as you can see with the big line posted on this game) for the Wolves in a run and gun type game. The over is 14-2 in the Timberwolves last 16 games and I expect another one here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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01-20-19 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 147 | Top | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #817 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston College Eagles vs Florida State Seminoles @ Noon ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. I also like having the lesser team, Boston College, at home in a situation like this. The Eagles should be able to score well since they're on their home floor but they have very little chance of slowing down the Seminoles in this one. That's because Boston College is a weak team defensively and Florida State enters this game off a loss and looking for a breakout game offensively. The Noles have faced tough match-ups recently at Pittsburgh, versus Duke, and at Virginia. Now the Seminoles can take advantage of facing a weaker foe with weaker defense. The over is 4-1 in Boston College's last 5 games. Also, the Eagles are 12-3 to the over when they enter game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Overall, BC is on a long-term run of 25-10 to the over in home games. Florida State found it tough to score this season in only 3 games: at Pittsburgh, at Virginia, and on a neutral floor versus Villanova. In their other 14 games this season the Seminoles have averaged 82 points per game this season. They are a 7 point favorite. In other words if FSU scores like they normally do and the odds makers is right about the spread you have yourself an 82-75 type game which means this one should fly over by double digits. I'll take it. 10* OVER the total in Boston College |
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01-19-19 | Virginia v. Duke OVER 136.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 6 ET - Once again the odds makers made a HUGE mistake, right? You guys know how I feel about the odds makers. Tremendous respect for the quality numbers they put out on games. That said, the last two meetings between these teams totaled just 120 points and 128 points. Yet, even though the Blue Devils also lost point guard Tre Jones to injury in their most recent game, this total opened up at a 140! The odds makers really screwed up, right? Hardly! The fact is people don't fully think about such things and Jones, even as described by his head coach, is a "defensive catalyst". On the flip side, in terms of offensive production, Duke is expected to have Cam Reddish back for this game and of course the Blue Devils are loaded with great offensive production including freshmen RJ Barrett (23.4 ppg) and Zion Williamson (21.2 ppg) - the two leading scorers in the ACC. Well aware of the Cavaliers defensive prowess but the Blue Devils have still averaged 64 points per game in their last two games against Virginia. Also, playing with home loss revenge from last season and arguably as dynamic as their offense has been this season, I look for the Blue Devils to get into the 70s in this one and Virginia will be right there with them! The Cavs are undefeated this season thanks, in part, to an offense that has averaged 74 points per game thus far. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Virginia's ACC games this season. The Blue Devils are 13-6 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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01-16-19 | Iowa v. Penn State OVER 140 | Top | 89-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - We're getting line value here for a couple of key reasons. One is that the Hawkeyes Tyler Cook is likely a game-time decision and he leads the team in points and rebounds. I expect him to play but, even if he doesn't, Ryan Kriener has been playing much more recently and has now averaged double figures in 3 of his last 4 games. Iowa is averaging 81.7 points per game this season and has plenty of firepower. The other reason we've seen the posted total on this game drop (and another reason we're getting line value) is because the Nittany Lions have been in a scoring slump in Big Ten play. For one thing their games have included Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Those are 3 of the tougher defenses to face in the conference. Certainly Iowa does not fit into that category and note that Penn State coach Pat Chambers even said he wants to play fast and he wants to see his team scoring 70+ points per game like it often did last season. Considering that fact as well as this game being at home and facing another team that also doesn't mind playing fast, I am expecting plenty of points in this one. The over is 3-0 when Iowa's line ranges from pick to +3 and also the over is 9-3 when the Hawkeyes line ranges from pick to -3. You can see we're in that sweet spot here and the over is also on a 16-6 run in Iowa's January games. The over is 11-6 when Penn State, in game 15 or later in a season, is facing a team that averages 77 points or more per game. Also, the Nittany Lions Wednesday games are 10-4 to the over. 10* OVER in Penn State |
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01-13-19 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 230.5 | Top | 133-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - Once again the Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable for this game and, hopefully, unlike Friday that will not change before game time and burn me. But either way, I look for the Bucks (Greek Freak or not) to have their foot firmly on the gas from the opening tip all the way to the final horn in this one. Milwaukee is off a loss at Washington and will take advantage of facing one of the worst teams in the league here. Of course that is why they are a double digit favorite but I don't like laying double digits on the road in the NBA and also feel Atlanta (off a big road win) will be able to stay hot and put up plenty of points in this one as they are back on their home floor. Of course at first glance this total looked a little on the high side when it opened up. This has caused the markets to move it down some and in typical contrarian fashion I am taking advantage of the additional value on the high side of this one. The fact is that the odds makers set this total big for a reason and I concur because the Bucks are going to push the tempo all game long and look to put a white-washing on the Hawks. The over is 26-15 when Milwaukee is off an upset loss as a favorite. The over is 13-8 in Bucks Sunday games. The over is a long-term 29-17 in Hawks games against Central Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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01-04-19 | SMU v. Tulane OVER 139 | Top | 74-65 | Push | 0 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tulane Green Wave vs SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - This is the perfect set up for a high-scoring game. Though Tulane has not shot well lately, they are finally back home and that is a key here! The Green Wave have shot 49.2% from the field (including 39.2% from 3-point land) in their home games this season. However, SMU is nearly a double digit favorite here with good reason. The Mustangs are the much stronger overall team and they have revenge on their minds too. That is a big help when playing an over because SMU won't hesitate to run up the score here given the chance. Last season the Mustangs had a 7 point lead at the half but then got outscored by double digits in the second half and lost. It is payback time here for SMU but I do expect the Green Wave to also have a huge scoring night as they hang within single digits for much of this game. In terms of technical support, Tulane is 5-1 to the over in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Green Wave have gone 15-4 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more consecutive SU losses. The Mustangs are 7-3 to the over this season in games in which they are the favorite. Also, SMU is on a 14-5 run to the over in games against teams with a losing record. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Tulane |
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01-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors OVER 210.5 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET - Yes, I am aware of Kyle Lowry being out for this game. However, I am also aware of the fact that the Raptors are off RARE back to back POOR shooting games. There have been only 2 other times that Toronto shot less than 42% from the field in back to back games. BOTH times their next game flew over the total and, in fact, the average points scored in that next game was 229! Of course the Jazz like to play a slower, grinder-style of game but it is not their choice today. With this game in Toronto, the Raptors will dictate the tempo. The over is 17-10 in Utah's last 27 against Atlantic Division opponents. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 on the season when the Jazz are playing with home loss revenge. Toronto is 17-8 to the over against Northwest Division opponents. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 on the season in Raptors Tuesday games. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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01-01-19 | Marquette v. St. John's OVER 155.5 | Top | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #605 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St John's Red Storm vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play because many are likely to be looking to the under here considering both of these teams stats make them look improved on defense early this season. The key to the value is that the Red Storm and Golden Eagles have padded their defensive stats by having big games against much weaker teams. For the most part, when St John's and Marquette have stepped up in class and faced tougher competition, they've struggled on the defensive end as per usual. That is noteworthy here because both of these teams are known for their high-scoring ways and I expect that to continue in this one. Both games between these teams last season went over the total and I like the fact that each of the last 4 meetings between these teams totaled at least 158 points. The current total on this game as of early Tuesday morning is as low as a 155.5 in some spots. Note that the over is a long-term 7-3 in Marquette's road games with a posted total between 155 and 159.5 points. Overall in road games it is a long-term 15-6 run to the over for the Golden Eagles. St John's has had just 3 unders in its 12 games subsequent to their season opener. Also, the Red Storm are a perfect 3-0 to the over when they are at home and their line ranges from -3 to a pick'em. 10* OVER the total in St John's |
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12-23-18 | Drake v. San Diego OVER 145 | Top | 110-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Toreros vs Drake Bulldogs @ 7:30 ET in Las Vegas, NV - The Bulldogs are 4-1 to the over in games with a posted total in the 140s this season. Drake is 22-12 to the over the last 3 seasons combined in games with a posted total in the 140s. The Bulldogs are shooting 48% from the field this season and San Diego is also shooting 48% from the field so far this season. As a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Toreros are 4-1 to the over. In tournament games the past 2+ seasons, San Diego is 4-2 to the over. I like the fact that the Toreros are off win over Washington State and are set for a letdown here while the Bulldogs are off a tight low-scoring loss and should bounce back here. It sets this one to be a back and forth affair with plenty of points in my opinion. 10* OVER the total San Diego |
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12-18-18 | Lakers v. Nets OVER 227.5 | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:35 ET - For the 4th time in their last 6 road games, the Lakers allowed at least 48.5% shooting from the field as they gave up 128 points in a loss at Washington on Sunday. Los Angeles, of course, will be looking to bounce back off that loss and I expect their going to have a huge scoring night Tuesday at Brooklyn but I also expect them, per the above, to struggle to stop the Nets. Brooklyn has actually been very hot with their shooting. Part of the reason the Nets are on a 6-0 ATS run and 5-0 SU run is because they have shot 52.1% from the field in their last 4 games! Brooklyn, however, has also allowed 52.9% shooting in their last 3 games! As you would expect with those types of numbers, the O/U is 3-0 in the Nets last 3 games. LA is also 3-0 to the over in their last 3 games. Additionally, the Lakers O/U is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 or more. The Nets O/U is 5-1 when they are off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. Brooklyn is also 4-1 to the over when they are on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Nets are 9-4 to the over in games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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12-18-18 | Oakland v. Georgia OVER 153 | Top | 69-81 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach CBB Game #613 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Georgia Bulldogs vs Oakland (Mich) Golden Grizzlies @ 7 ET - The Golden Grizzlies upset the Bulldogs in 2016 by a count of 86-79. Another high-scoring shootout is likely in the rematch. Oakland (Michigan) continues to be an offensive juggernaut that also pays little attention to defense! The Grizzlies are allowing 49.2% from the field including 37.3% from three point land this season. The strength for Oakland, as per usual, is their shooting abilities. The Grizzlies have shot 48.3% from the field this season including 42.7% from beyond the arc and they've been particularly hot in recent games. They catch the Bulldogs in a "sandwich game" between Arizona State and Georgia Tech. In other words, Georgia may not be totally focused on defensive intensity here. As a result, look for a "run and gun" type game here and the Bulldogs should have no trouble putting up a ton of points as they're shooting 48% from the field this season including 35% from three point land! Georgia is averaging 87 points per game in home games this season. Oakland has averaged 84 points per game in their last 3 games and all those games were on the road too. The over is 6-1 when the Golden Grizzlies are a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. The over is 6-0 when Oakland is off a game in which they scored 80 or more points this season. The Bulldogs are 8-3 to the over in games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. More of the same expected here! 10* OVER the total in Georgia |
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12-17-18 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 213 | Top | 97-102 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz are off on extremely ugly shooting game Saturday but it was played at Mexico City. After that tough performance in an unusual venue look for Utah to shoot much better in a very familiar venue now as they face a Rockets team that eliminated them from the playoffs in the most recent post-season. What is interesting is that now Houston is the revenge-minded team in this match-up as the Jazz took each of the first two games this season. Look for this to result in a very spirited effort from the Rockets here with plenty of points scored! Houston will play "Rockets ball" on their home floor in this one. They've averaged 120.7 points per game in their last 6 home games. Utah should certainly bounce back after the low-scoring game against the Magic. In fact, the over is 5-1 the last 6 times the Jazz were off a game in which they were held to 99 points or less! Utah has averaged a solid 106 points per game in their last 3 games at Houston and we've got a low total to work with here when you consider the way the Rockets have been piling up points at home. The over is 5-1 in Houston's last 6 home games. The over is also 4-1 this season when the Rockets are off a divisional game. Utah is a long-term 34-18 to the over in games played against Southwest Division opponents. Look for another "Southwest Shootout" in this match-up tonight! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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12-16-18 | Green Bay v. Michigan State OVER 160.5 | Top | 83-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #733 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Michigan State Spartans vs Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 5 ET - The Spartans are off a hard-fought low-scoring win over Florida. However, they've had a full week off since then and now face "only" Wisconsin-Green Bay and Oakland (Michigan) to wrap up their pre-Christmas schedule. The point is that the Spartans are highly unlikely to put forth a huge effort on the defensive end here. Keep in mind UWGB likes to play very fast but their game at Creighton earlier this week stayed under the total simply because the Phoenix had a rare poor shooting night. Their normal struggles on the defensive end continued in that game and the over is a perfect 4-0 in UWGB's meetings with Michigan State. As for the Spartans, they had averaged 87 points per game in their first 9 games this season before that low scoring win over the Gators. They can get to triple digits here against the Phoenix. As for the UWGB offensive production, they are averaging 85 points per game this season. You can see that the line on this game is in the -25 range on Michigan State and there is no reason they can't get about 100 in this game. Look for a game in the range of 100 to 75 as this one is played very "loose" with plenty of run and gun. The result is a high-scoring game that flies over the total. Not only is the over 4-0 in the last 4 games between these teams, the over is also 4-0 this season when Green Bay is off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. The over is also 3-0 when the Spartans enter a game with 7 or more days of rest between games. Combined 11-0 mark here favors a very high-scoring contest. 10* OVER the total in Michigan State |
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12-15-18 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 211.5 | Top | 98-93 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Hardwood Hammer - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:35 ET - I suffered a very frustrating loss with the Spurs "over" on Thursday. San Antonio was up 66-57 at the half against the Clippers so it was on pace for 246 points. Inexplicably, the Clippers were so inaccurate with second half shooting they "couldn't even throw the ball in the ocean" as they saying goes. LA scored 30 points in the ENTIRE second half after scoring nearly that in EACH of the first two quarters. Anyway, that is leading to come key total value here as the total between the Bulls and Spurs was higher when these teams just recently met in Chicago. The fact is that San Antonio has been playing some solid defense but they also have been red hot with their shooting on offense. That said, after a string of solid performances on D against Western Conference foes, don't be surprised if SA is a bit lack-luster on the defensive end as the 6-23 Bulls come to town. As for Chicago, they are off a game in Mexico City which was a grinder with tough shooting in an unfamiliar setting. The Bulls will be happy to get back to a regular venue and should thrive tonight with a strong game offensively. Chicago scored 107 points versus the Spurs in their match-up about 3 weeks ago. San Antonio enters this game having averaged 118 points per game in their last 7 games. Also, SA is still 10-4 to the over their last 14 games despite that ridiculous "under" result on Thursday. The over is 3-1 this season in Spurs games against Central Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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12-13-18 | Clippers v. Spurs OVER 222 | Top | 87-125 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs have had back to back unders in their last two games but the over was 10-1 in their 11 prior games. Also, the over is a perfect 4-0 in San Antonio's last 4 games versus Los Angeles. The Clippers are on a 12-3-1 run to the over in their last 16 games. The Spurs are 9-2 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Clips are 39-18 to the over (including 11-2 this season) when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Look for the defensive struggles of LA to continue in this one but also note that Los Angeles has averaged 114.5 points per game in their last two games versus the Spurs. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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12-11-18 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - Each of these teams enter this game having stayed under the total in 3 straight games. However, it is a statistical anomaly that won't continue here. That's because the Blazers are actually hitting 49% from the field their last 5 games and the Rockets are now back home where they've gone over the total in 4 straight games. Houston has shot 52% from the field in those 4 games. The over is 5-1 in Portland's last 6 road games. The over is 6-2 when the Rockets enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Also, when Houston is off an upset loss as a favorite, the over is 6-3 this season and the Rockets are 4-0 to the over when off a divisional game this season. Portland is 3-1 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Both teams have fresh legs here and the shots will be scorching the nets in this one! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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12-11-18 | Villanova v. Pennsylvania OVER 139 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pennsylvania Quakers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats had one of their worst games on offense Saturday while at the same time having one of their best games of the season on defense. Of course the result was an under and the added result is some extra value with the low total on this game involving the Quakers. Pennsylvania has been shooting the ball very well particularly on their home floor this season. As for Villanova, they've averaged 86 points per game in their last two meetings with Penn. The Quakers are averaging 80 points per game this season. I am well aware of the fact that Pennsylvania has struggled to score well against Nova in recent meetings but this situation is entirely different as, for the most part, the Wildcats have not been as strong on the defensive end early this season. At the same time, the Penn offense has been a real positive early this season with hot outside shooting leading the way. The over is a long-term 17-6 when Villanova is a road favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The over is a long-term 13-7 in Penn's games against Big East opponents and also the Quakers are a perfect 3-0 to the over in home games this season. 10* OVER the total in Pennsylvania |
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12-09-18 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 230 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 6:05 ET - Yes this is a big game so you would expect some extra defensive intensity but, truth be told, neither one of these teams is where they are today because of defense. The Raptors and Bucks are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference because of their scoring prowess. Of course this is a big revenge game for Toronto after losing at Milwaukee earlier this season. That is certainly noteworthy as the Raptors are a perfect 6-0 to the over this season when playing with revenge. As for the Bucks, they are a perfect 4-0 to the over this season in games in which they are an underdog. Additionally, the over is a perfect 5-0 this season in Milwaukee's games against Atlantic Division opponents. Last but not least, the over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. That means we have combined angles of 19-0 / 100% PERFECT in this one in support of a high-scoring blockbuster. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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12-08-18 | Nuggets v. Hawks OVER 222.5 | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:35 ET - The Nuggets are off a loss last night that snapped a 7-game winning streak. Even though Denver shot very poorly in the game it still went over the total. In other words, that tells you the type of quick pace they're playing. Yes, I am aware there are some injury situations for each team heading into this game but, the point is, I do not expect the Nuggets to take their foot off the games in this one. That said, Denver did score 138 points when they hosted the Hawks last month. As for Atlanta, the over is 7-2 in their last 9 games. Also, the Hawks are 6-2 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. Atlanta is 8-4 to the over in home games this season. The over is 25-12 when the Nuggets are on the road and the posted total on their game is 220 points or more. Look for another one to fly over the total here as Denver will be ready to push the pace from the opening tip after what happened last night at Charlotte. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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12-07-18 | Massachusetts v. Providence OVER 149 | Top | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #521 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Providence Friars vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Both teams have gotten a lot of scoring options from new faces this season but each team is also still looking to gel in terms of defensive rotations. As a result, plenty of high-scoring games have resulted. Both teams are shooting the ball quite well, including from beyond the arc, and the over is 7-2 in UMass games this season and 5-2 in Providence games with a posted total of 140 or more. In recent seasons, the over is 13-6 when the Minutemen are off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also, the over is 17-8 in Massachusetts road games and this is their first true road game of this season. Both of the neutral site games for UMass this season did go over the total. The Friars are 25-11 to the over in games where they are the favorite. Also, Providence is 19-6 to the over in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Both the Friars and Minutemen take a ton of threes and both teams have enjoyed solid success in knocking them down this season. That said, I look for this non-conference match-up to result in plenty of points. Each of the last two meetings with the Friars as the host have gone over the total and this one is destined to do the same! 10* OVER the total in Providence |
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12-06-18 | Knicks v. Celtics OVER 217.5 | Top | 100-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - This is a revenge game for the Celtics. That means they are NOT going to try and grind out a win against a Knicks team they know they can dominate. Look for this one to be played at a very fast pace as a result as Boston will NOT take their foot off the gas in this one. The Celtics have fresh legs as they've been off since Saturday. Boston seeks payback here for that 117-109 loss to the Knicks two weeks ago. In that game the Celtics had 97 shots from the field but simply had an "off" shooting night. That won't happen again here! New York has allowed 119 points per game their last 4 games. The over is 6-2 in the Knicks last 8 road games. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 Celtics games overall. In Boston's last 6 games they had one horrible scoring effort (versus Utah) but have averaged 117.6 points per game in the other 5 games. The over is 4-1 when Boston is a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The over is 21-9 when the Celtics enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive games going over the total. In other words, don't be surprised when we see another one here. The over is 8-4 in Knicks games against teams with a winning record. More of the same in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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12-01-18 | Bucks v. Knicks OVER 230.5 | Top | 134-136 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:05 ET - The Bucks are averaging 120.8 points per game this season. However, their defense has been sub-par over the past week and they certainly are unlikely to be overly "amped up" about facing a 7-16 Knicks team. In other words, this one is likely to be played at a fast pace with plenty of open floor for New York to "run and gun". Milwaukee has allowed 48.9% shooting and 117 points per game in its last 4 contests. The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between the Bucks and Knicks. Milwaukee is also 4-0 to the over in games against Atlantic Division opponents this season. Saturday games for the Bucks are a long-term 24-9 to the over and December games are 22-7 to the over the past two seasons. The Knicks most recent game stayed under the total but they entered that contest having gone 6-2 to the over in their prior 8 games. New York is also an incredible 17-6 to the over in Saturday games and 15-6 to the over when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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11-29-18 | Alabama v. UCF OVER 133.5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #507 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Central Florida Golden Knights vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 7 ET - The Golden Knights are known for their defense but they've also been shooting the ball very well this season and have averaged 75.3 points per game thus far. That is noteworthy here in terms of looking for a high-scoring game because the Crimson Tide have scored 78 points or more in 5 of their 6 games this season. Alabama is struggling on the defensive end this season and I expect Central Florida to take advantage. However, Crimson Tide also has plenty of confidence from their offensive production leading the way to a 5-1 start. These teams met last season and that familiarity with what to expect will also help each team better attack the defense in this rematch. I know last year's game played out to an under but the Tide are quite a different team this season and I expect them to push the pace much more in this rematch after falling short in a low-scoring battle last season at home. The over is 3-0 this season in Alabama's games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for UCF to improve to 3-1 to the over in home games this season. Before a low-scoring win over Northern Kentucky last week, the Golden Knights had scored 77 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games. 10* OVER the total in Central Florida |
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11-26-18 | Wolves v. Cavs OVER 215 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The over is a perfect 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams and that includes a perfect 4-0 in meetings in Cleveland. Both these teams have trended under this month and that has resulted in this total being set lower than it should be. The Cavaliers have averaged 119 points per game their last two games. However, the Cavaliers have also given up an average of 112 points per game their last five games. The Timberwolves have played at a fast pace in recent games and also Minnesota has averaged 93 field goal attempts per game their last 7 road games. The Cavaliers have averaged 95 field goal attempts per game their last 3 games. Look for a good pace to this game and plenty of points as the long term high-scoring trend in this series continues. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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11-26-18 | Nebraska v. Clemson UNDER 139 | Top | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #716 Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Clemson Tigers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 7 ET - This total opened up at a 137 and has climbed as high as 139 as of early Monday morning. The fact is that both of these teams play strong defense and I feel we're getting excellent value with the under here. Both teams showed great improvement on the defensive end last season and that has continued into this season. The Cornhuskers are allowing just 51.7 points per game on shooting of 32.4% from the field and 22.4% from beyond the arc. The Tigers are off a rare poor game defensively against Creighton but this was preceded by Clemson allowing an average of only 57 points per game in their 4 prior games. When these teams most recently met (2 years ago) they combined for only 118 points and I expect another "grinder" here in this one Monday. The Cornhuskers are on short rest and have gone under in 7 of their last 10 when playing with just 1 day of rest between games. Nebraska has stayed under in 5 of their 6 games this season. Also, the past two seasons the Huskers played 5 road games that had a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. The result of those games from a totals standpoint was 0 overs and 5 unders! Look for that trend to remain perfect here. 10* UNDER the total in Clemson |
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11-25-18 | Drexel v. Bowling Green OVER 151 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Bowling Green Falcons vs Drexel Dragons @ 3 ET - First off I am aware of the injury situation with Dragons guard Kurk Lee but he truly hasn't played much of a factor this season as he has totaled only 12 minutes on the floor in Drexel's last 3 games. As a result, he is not much of a factor in terms of this total and the Dragons are on a 3-0 run to the over. Also, Drexel gave up 78 points to the Falcons last season in Philly and now they face them at Bowling Green which means even more points likely here! That's because the Falcons are happy to be back on their home floor and they're also coming off a loss where they had a rare poor night and scored just 67 points. Prior to that low-scoring defeat, BG had scored at least 75 points in 4 of their first 5 games plus they had reached the 80 point mark 3 times. The Dragons have averaged 98 points their last 3 games and yes one of those games was against a very weak foe but, even taking that out of the equation Drexel has averaged 87.5 points their last two games. The over is a long-term 14-6 when the Dragons are off a non-conference game. The over is 15-9 when Bowling Green is off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also the Falcons are 14-7 to the over when facing a team that is averaging 77 points or more per game. In other words, they have not been (and still are not) afraid to get into "run and gun" type games with teams like Drexel and that is what I expect here. 10* OVER the total in Bowling Green |
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11-23-18 | Magic v. Nuggets OVER 214 | Top | 87-112 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Nuggets vs Orlando Magic @ 9:05 ET - The Magic are off a low-scoring loss at Toronto Tuesday as they had a horrific shooting night. Orlando entered that game red hot from the floor in their 6 prior games and scoring an average of 119 points per game during that stretch. That said, the low-scoring loss was surprising and I expect the Magic to get right back on track here (offensively) in this one. The Nuggets may have trouble staying fully focused here as they are off a win at Minnesota and have a game at Oklahoma City on deck. That said, this is a "sandwich game" against an Eastern Conference foe so it is unlikely to bring out the best in terms of defensive intensity. In fact 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams have gone over the total (including 2 for 2 at Denver). The over is 17-7 when the Nuggets enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. The over is 20-11 when Denver is off a divisional game. Also, the over is 51-26 when the Nuggets face a team that is scoring an average of 106 points or more per game. 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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11-09-18 | Hornets v. 76ers OVER 225 | Top | 132-133 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The last time these two teams met the game stayed well under the total but the pacing of the game should have sent it flying over the total. The problem, for over players, in that game was that both teams shot under 40% from the field. Even with that the game totaled 208 points and I feel the situation here is conducive to an over. The set up here is ideal for plenty of points. The 76ers, after a very sloppy game against Brooklyn, cleaned up their game and also played solid defense in a win at Indiana Wednesday. Now I would not be surprised to see them somewhat complacent here after finally notching their first road win of the season. As for the Hornets, they roll into this game off back to back wins. While it is true that the competition certainly was not fierce. It is also true that Charlotte has been able to build up confidence by getting those two victories. Taking a look at the Hornets last 6 games, the one poor shooting effort was against Philly but Charlotte has shot 49.2% from the field in the other 5 games combined. As for the Sixers, they are averaging 115 points per game at home this season. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 in Philly's games versus teams with a winning record this season. As for the Hornets, the over is 3-1 this season in their games as an underdog. The lone under was the aforementioned 105-103 loss at Philly. Charlotte and the Sixers make up for that here with a high-scoring shootout! 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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11-05-18 | Rockets v. Pacers OVER 213 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets now have James Harden back and, after shaking off some rust in his first game back, he'll be ready to go strong tonight. Keep in mind that was a crazy low-scoring result at Chicago in Houston's most recent game and it is helping to give us line value here. The fact is that the game was on pace for 220 points at half but then the Bulls scored just 7 points in the 3rd quarter. Some credit is due to the Rockets defense but it was also a lot of horrific shooting from Chicago that led to that result. The rest of the game the Bulls scored at least 25 points in each of the other 3 quarters. We all know what this Houston offense is capable of and I expect them to start clicking tonight as the Pacers D may not be at its strongest in a non-conference affair like this. Additionally, we all know Indiana can light up the scoreboard - particularly when at home - and the result of the above is that we should see a shootout between these non-conference foes Monday. The Rockets first 3 road games had all totaled at least 227 points. That "ugly" win at Chicago was Houston's 1st under in 4 road games this season. As for the Pacers, they are averaging 109.5 points per game at home this season and are knocking down 42.6% of their threes when at home! The Rockets have scored 118 points in each of their last two games versus the Pacers. Look for more of the same here as I expect, per all of the above, that each team gets to the 110 range in this one! 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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11-01-18 | Nuggets v. Cavs OVER 222 | Top | 110-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Yes, the Nuggets are in a back to back and off an OT game. Yes, the Cavaliers have a new head coach so "focus" could change for the team. However, lets address those two factors because this total has dropped significantly early this morning and this has led to strong line value on the over. First off, the Cavs first game with Larry Drew instead of Tyronn Lue calling the shots resulted in a win and Cleveland's defense did create turnovers. However, the Cavaliers still allowed their opponent (the Hawks) to make a high percentage of their shots. In other words perhaps the aggressive defense did result in transition points for the Cavs but it also resulted in more open looks for the opponents shooters when they did get past the over-aggressive defenders. The fact is that the Cavaliers game with Atlanta still totaled 250 points and I feel this game with Denver is going to be a shootout as well. The Nuggets defense could be lacking here after putting a ton of effort into the win over the Bulls last night. Also, note that Denver is 14-7 to the over in games against Central Division opponents in recent seasons. Also, over this same time frame, the Nuggets are 46-23 to the over BOTH against teams that allow 106 points or more per game and also teams that score 106 points or more per game. Of course the Cavs fall into both of those categories this season. Additionally, the Cavaliers are on an 11-2 run to the over when off a game where they scored 130 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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10-31-18 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 210.5 | Top | 107-101 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Grim Reaper ESPN Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Pacers are off a rare poor shooting game and will bounce back strong here. Even though Indiana is on the road for this one, the Pacers actually have averaged 117.5 points per game in their last two road games. On the season Indiana is hitting 50% from the field overall and 43% from three point land. They'll take advantage of a Knicks team that is allowing 110.7 points per game this season on 47% shooting from the field including 38% from beyond the arc. Although New York's defense leaves a lot to be desired, the Knicks are averaged 110.5 points per game at home this season. I feel we're getting great line value here considering both teams are off a day of rest, the Pacers should be burning up the nets tonight with hot shooting, and New York score very well at home. All these factors combined with a total in the 210 range means excellent line value here! The Pacers are 3-0 to the over this season when off a non-conference game. The Knicks are 2-0 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. Indiana is 3-0 to the over in Eastern Conference match-ups this season. The over is 2-0 in the last two meetings between these teams. That means we have combined edges here of 10-0 / 100% PERFECT supporting this selection! Look for a shootout in this one. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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10-29-18 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 222 | Top | 109-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Yes, I am aware of the head injury suffered by Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks but he is NOT in the concussion protocol and I just do not see him missing a huge game like this. The last two undefeated teams in the league are meeting in Milwaukee tonight in what should be a fantastic game with plenty of points scored! The over went 3-0 in meetings between these teams last season. Also, after I got burned on the Raptors over in their most recent game (only went over the closing number but should have finished with 240 points) I have had my eyes on this match-up. Each team, compared to the opening number at least, has stayed under in each of its last two games. However, the pacing of the game has been conducive to an over for each of those games and also each of these teams started the season with 4 straight overs. The first total that popped up on this game was 223 but it has dropped to 221.5 since then and there is huge value here with the over in my opinion. The Bucks have allowed an average of 101 shots per game their last 4 games! The Raptors have allowed an average of 95 shots per game their last 3 games! On the other end of the floor, of course, both teams can fill it up! The Bucks are averaging 119.3 points per game this season and Toronto is averaging 116.8 points per game this season. The over is a long-term 37-25 when the Raptors are off a game where they scored 115 points or more. Also, the over is 20-10 in Toronto's games when they have two days of rest between games. The over is a long-term 47-25 in Bucks games played in the first half of a season. This should be a VERY entertaining shootout tonight! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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10-26-18 | Mavs v. Raptors OVER 225.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are undefeated on the season. The Mavericks are coming off a game where they let a 26 point lead slip away. Toronto can score on anybody but has also allowed triple digits in all five of their games this season. Dallas is allowing an insane 50% from three point land this season and the Raptors are allowing just a shade under 40% from beyond the arc this season. The point is that there should be plenty of points in this one. The Mavericks got burned for taking the foot off the gas in their most recent game while the Raptors are averaging 117 points per game this season and have to be licking their chops at attacking the struggling Mavs defense. Dallas is allowing 119.2 points per game this season. Both teams play at a quick pace with the Mavericks averaging 92.5 field goal attempts per game and the Raptors not far behind at around 90. Couple those stats with the fact that both teams have had trouble defending the 3-point line this season as well as the fact that this total, as of early this morning, has dropped big from its opener, and you have a great situation here in terms of value. Toronto's most recent game stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over was 4-0 in Raptors games this season. The over is 5-2 in Mavs games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The over is 9-5 in Raptors home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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10-22-18 | Magic v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 93-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - This total is dropping early this morning which is understandable given the fact that each of these teams has trended early this season as well as the fact that the Celtics are known for defense. However, the drop on the total is also a key to additional value here because I just don't foresee Boston giving a real huge effort on the defensive end in this game. It is a non-divisional match-up against a bad team. These types of match-ups, as a general rule, don't tend to bring out the best in terms of intensity on defense. Also, the Magic have added confidence from scoring 115 points and shooting lights out in a 1 point loss at Philly Saturday. Boston is off a tight win Saturday over the Knicks and this will now be the 3rd game in 4 nights for each of these teams. That also can mean some tired legs on defense. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in Boston. The Magic have scored at least 103 points in 2 of their last 3 meetings with the Celtics and at least 104 points in 2 of their 3 games this season. Orlando should ride momentum from the hot shooting at Philly but their defense is poor. That said, look for the Magic to get to the 105 range in this game but they are forecast to lose by double digits for a reason and this one should fly well over the total as the Celtics enjoy a breakout game on offense against a sub-par defense. The over is 22-15 in Orlando's games against Atlantic Division opponents and the over is 26-17 in the Celtics games against Southeast Division opponents. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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10-17-18 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 217 | Top | 113-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - Interesting match-up here with each team having a new head coach. I expect this to lead to plenty of points here as a pair of former Spurs assistant coaches square off. It is Mike Budenholzer for the Bucks and James Borrego for the Hornets. Milwaukee is going to be emphasizing the 3-point shot this season and they've added some key pieces relating to that and I expect to see plenty of threes fired up by Milwaukee tonight. However, the Bucks also can attack the paint as Charlotte no longer has Dwight Howard in the middle and the Hornets are definitely going toward more of a small ball lineup. It all equates to plenty of points here in the season opener as we should see a good tempo in this one. The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and also a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times they've met in Charlotte. Additionally, in games played in the first half of a season, Milwaukee has gone 43-23 to the over their last 66. Look for that trend to add another one on the high side Wednesday. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - The extra rest here will serve both teams well. Not only did they have some time off between the conference finals and these NBA Finals, they now also have 2 full off days between Game 1 and Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Also, after this, the teams will have 2 more full off days before Game 3 as the series then shifts east. The point is that the players are rested and they know they have more rest coming. As a result, there will be no holding back on Sunday evening and I expect plenty of big scoring runs. The Cavaliers are 39-18 to the over when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more and that includes 17-8 this season. Now, of course, I know Game 1 included OT but, keep in mind, it went over the total before overtime. Also, it is hard to be impressed with the Cavaliers defense when one considers that the Warriors did hit over 50% from the field for the game, scored 17 points in OT (just 5 minutes), and scored at least 27 points in 3 of the 4 quarters in the game. Of course LeBron James is going to get his points and the Warriors showed in Game 1 they're not going to stop him. In fact, the Cavs scored at least 26 points in 3 of the 4 quarters. The point is that if a "normal" quarter is at least 27-26 (53 points) you can see why I like the over in this match-up. Adding to the value is that neither team shot as well as they normally do from three point land in Game 1. Look for better outside shooting in Game 2 and the Cavaliers will once again be very determined after falling just short in Game 1. That said, I expect this game to still be close enough late to encourage late fouls and plenty of "scramble points" at the end should we need them. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - Tuesday's game saw the total close at 227.5 in a number of shops with some even as high as a 228. Of course after the dismal shooting effort in Game 4, the markets have had to adjust but a double digit adjustment is something not normally seen. In other words, it is not the odds makers doing this as much as it is the markets. The odds makers opened up Tuesday's total at 224 and this Game 5 total at 220. That is a difference of only 4 points. But the markets hammered the over in Game 4 and got crushed and now they're hammering the under in Game 5 and I suspect they will get crushed again. This morning's total (as low as 218.5) is nearly 10 points below where we were before tip-off in Game 4. The value is too much to ignore because you know that two fantastic shooting teams are going to find their rhythm again after each of them was held below 40% from the field in Tuesday's game. This season there were only 3 times that the Warriors were on the road following a game in which they were held below 100 points. The average point total of the next game in those 3 occurrences was 232 points! Also, when on the road this season following a game in which they allowed less than 100 points, Golden State went 8-2 to the over on the season! There has only been 1 under in the Rockets last 6 home games and that was Game 3 of this series which totaled 225 points. In other words, given the low number on tonight's total that also would have resulted in an over. The Rockets are averaging 114.2 points per game in their last 6 home games and the Warriors should match them bucket for bucket as you can tell by the spread on this game being a pick'em. In my opinion the best value (and it is strong value) is the over in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-22-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 224 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 9:05 ET - The Warriors Andre Iguodala is listed as doubtful for this game. He is a starter and he is important come playoff time because he is a very solid player on the defensive end. That said, this should help lead to a high-scoring match-up in Game 4. You know the Rockets are going to bounce back after scoring just 85 points in Game 3. However, the Warriors offensive production is unlikely to be slowed down on their home floor where they have averaged 121 points per game their last 4 games. The over is 9-2 in Houston's Tuesday games this season and the Rockets are a long-term 5-2 to the over after they were held to 85 points or less in their prior game. Golden State is 22-13 to the over when leading in a playoff series. Also, the Warriors are a long-term 13-4 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. Factor all this in with the banged up knee plaguing Iguodala and you have the right "recipe" for an absolute shootout in this one. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-21-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 206.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 8:35 ET - Celtics games have now recorded 3 straight unders. The over is 5-1 this season when Boston enters a game on an "under streak" of 3 or more games. Celtics coach Brad Stevens, one of the best in the business, is making some adjustments here and I expect it to result in a lot more offense. Boston scored just 86 points and got blasted in Game 3 as they lost by a margin of 30 points. The over is 8-3 this season when the Celtics are off of a game they lost by a double digit margin. The over is a long-term 17-11 when the Cavaliers enter a game on an "under streak" of 3 or more games. The total on this game is currently 206.5 as of early morning on game day. The last 13 times that Cleveland has been off of a win by a double digit margin, their next game has totaled 207 points or more 11 of 13 times! In other words, look for the Cavs offense to stay red hot here (particularly since they are at home but also look for Stevens to make some adjustments to get his teams offensive production right back up where it should be. Keep in mind the Cavaliers had allowed an average of 107 points per game before Saturday's blowout win and, on the season, the Cavs allowed 109 points per game. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - You know the Warriors will be out for blood here after a 22 point loss in Game 2 on Wednesday. However, look for Golden State to respond with offense, not defense. The fact is that the Warriors over should go to 6-3 the last 9 times they've played a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. Fresh legs for Golden State coupled with being on their home floor coupled with being off of a blowout loss all equates to a run and gun affair here. You know the Rockets will play with plenty of confidence after knocking off the Warriors by 22 points at home. That is going to lead to a shootout here. Houston has averaged 113 points per game in their last 9 games. The Warriors have averaged 119 points per game in their last 3 home games. Golden State's most recent home game stayed under the total but the Warriors entered that game with a record of 7-1 to the over in their 8 prior home games. The Rockets are 7-3 to the over in their past 10 games. Game 3 went over the total despite the Warriors shooting only 30% from three point land and you know another performance like that is highly unlikely. That said, this one should easily crush the posted O/U Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - You know that LeBron James and Company are going to respond here but they have had issues on defense all season long and are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to their defensive efficiency rating. With that said, look for this one to surprise many and be a shootout. The Cavaliers are 11-5 to the over in Tuesday games game this season. Cleveland is also 24-14 to the over when playing with revenge. After a loss by a double digit margin, the Cavs are 32-19 to the over. The Celtics are 18-10 to the over this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. That is because it is hard to keep up defensive intensity when a team is off of an easy blowout win. Also, the over is 19-10 Boston's last 29 versus teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Also, versus teams that average 106 points or more, the Celtics are on a 24-12 run to the over. Before game 1 stayed under the total, Cleveland was on a 5-1 run to the over their prior 6 games and had been shooting the ball very well. Also, prior to that Game 1 under, the Celtics had gone 10-1 to the over in their last 11 home games. After a rare OFF night for the Cavaliers in the offensive end, look for things to return to "normal" Tuesday in Game Two. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 227 | Top | 104-113 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 10:35 ET - New Orleans was held to just 92 points Sunday as they endured a horrific shooting performance versus the Warriors. The Pelicans are 12-5 to the over the last 17 times they've been held to 102 points or less. Also, the Game 4 loss was just the 4th time this season that New Orleans has been held to 39.5% or less from the field. The game after each of the first 3 occurrences went over the total all 3 times! Look for the record in this situation to improve to a perfect 4-0 this season. However, the issue for the Pelicans is the fact that they won't be able to stop the Warriors potent attack. Golden State is at home and wants to close this out tonight and avoid a trip back to New Orleans. As a result, look for the Warriors to push the pace here as they attempt to push the Pelicans right out of the post-season! The over is 7-1 in Golden State's last 8 home games. Also, after a loss by 10 points or more New Orleans is 12-5 to the over this season plus the over is 27-14 in Pelicans games in which they are playing with revenge. The over is 21-12 when the Warriors are leading in a playoff series and they'll keep their foot on the gas for all 48 minutes of this one at home. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 209 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz were held to just 92 points on their home floor in the Game 3 loss. Utah is a perfect 6-0 to the over they last 6 times they were off of a game where they scored 96 points or less. The Jazz should respond here and they might even get an extra boost with the return of guard Ricky Rubio. When trailing in a playoff series, Utah has gone 4-2 to the over. Also, the over is a perfect 9-0 in Sunday games for the Jazz this season! Houston is 4-1 to the over in this post-season when they are leading in a playoff series. The Rockets started slow in this post-season but they've now averaged 114.4 points per game their last 5 games. Houston is a 5-point favorite in this match-up. If the game hits right near the line and the Rockets hit their recent scoring average, you're talking about a 114-109 type game. That covers this total by double digits and that is exactly what I am looking for here. Houston likely to shoot even better from three point land as the Rockets rarely have 3 straight sub-par games from beyond the arc. The Jazz fight back hard in hopes of evening this series up. The result is plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 207.5 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:05 ET - Sixers head coach Brett Brown spent many years on the Spurs coaching staff and learned plenty from San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich. That said, Brown knows exactly what to do in this spot. He has a very talented Philadelphia team that can put up a ton of points in a hurry and they are well-rested with fresh legs here as they have not played since Monday! Brown knows he is catching a weary Celtics team that just finished battling a 7-game series with the Bucks that wrapped up on Saturday. The 76ers will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days while Boston will be playing their 6th game in 11 days! You can plainly see which team is going to be fresher here and coach Brown is smart enough to have his team "run and gun" here. That could stake Philly to an early lead which helps take the crowd out of it but it also will allow the fresh legs of the 76ers to wear down a Celtics team coming off of that grueling battle with the Bucks. The Boston over is 11-3 their last 14 games. Also, the Celtics are 21-9 to the over their last 30 games when they face a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Look for the Philadelphia over to go to 4-1 this season when they are playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 204 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - With all the games in this series staying under the closing number, the downward trend on the posted totals in these games has continued. With tonight's game also being a possible elimination game for the Pacers, we are being given additional line value with the low posted total on this one. I expect Indiana to come out with a ton of energy and to also sustain it. The Pacers have lost 3 of the last 4 games in this series so clearly the grinder style of games is not suiting them. They need to take advantage of getting quick points in transition and push the tempo a little bit and try to change things up here in Game 6. Indiana has shot better on the road than at home in this series and, of course, that is the inverse of what you would expect. Don't look for that trend to continue here. Look for a shootout tonight with plenty of threes as well as quick points in transition. The Cavaliers wrapped up the regular season with an O/U mark of 6-3 in road games and Game 4 of this series in Indiana did go over the total for all but later bettors (closed at 206). As for the Pacers, they averaged 106.4 points per game at home this season and I have a strong feeling about what is coming tonight in terms of tempo and that should lead to an easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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04-25-18 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 9:35 ET - The very first number that popped up on this total was a 219. The markets have pounced on it and have pounded it down to as low as a 215.5 as of early game day morning. I'll gladly grab the additional line value here. The Wolves are down 3-1 in this series so they have no option but to pull off a huge upset here if they want to stay alive in this post-season. That said, there is great value with the over here because the Rockets are going to push the pace and look to close out big at home. The first two games in this series were played in Houston and both stayed under the total. However, the Rockets shot uncharacteristically poor from 3-point land in those two games. They've gotten hotter since then as they've shot better from beyond the arc in the last two games, both played in Minnesota. That said, I look for them to be even hotter still in Game 5 as they're back on their home floor and have found their shooting stroke again. The Timberwolves have hit 40% of their threes in this series and I look for this one to turn into a run and gun affair. We're simply getting value here because the first two games in Houston stayed under the total. Given this elimination setting and the Rockets game plan to run the Wolves out of the playoffs by running them right of the arena, this will be a shootout tonight. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 when the Rockets are leading in a playoff series. Minnesota is 9-4 to the over when they are off of a loss by double digits. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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04-24-18 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 211 | Top | 91-104 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - The Game 4 win for the Sixers was the 3rd time in 4 games in this series that one of the teams attempted at least 94 shots from the field. However, the game did stay under but the point is that we're getting line value here with this total as a result. The way the pacing has gone in this series 3 of the 4 should have gone over but instead it is a 2-2 split. With Miami having their backs against the wall, down 3-1 in this series, I look for them to be especially aggressive on the offensive end in this one. They know the Sixers are going to "get theirs" in terms of points but the Heat have scored at least 102 in each game in this series and have, in fact, averaged 106.5 points per game. Considering the spread on this game is double digits and yet Miami should end up in the 102 to 107 range in points, this total is definitely a little low as you can see! In terms of technical support, the over is 10-4 in Miami's last 14 road games and 10-5 in 76ers games this season when they are playing with 2 days of rest between games. Fresh legs and plenty of run and gun as the Sixers want to end this at home while the Heat will be firing away to try to stay alive and send it back to Miami. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 203.5 | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:35 ET - With a drop down to a 203.5 this morning, this total is now down double digits from where it was earlier in this series. This is a classic case of the books having to over-react due to market perception forcing an over-correction. Yes all 3 games of this series have stayed under the total but let us not get carried away here! The Celtics scored 57 in the first half of Friday's game. The Pacers scored 52 points in the 2nd half of that Game 3 match-up. The Cavs also scored 58 in the first half of Game 2 while the Pacers scored 51 points in the 2nd half of that match-up. The key here is Cleveland is now desperate for a win as they are on the road and down 2 games to 1 and the Cavaliers best success in this series has come when they're pushing the pace. The Cavs have led by double digits at halftime in each of the past two games. Today I look for Cleveland to push hard for a full 48 minutes. While I do respect the Pacers defense this is still an Indiana team that allowed 104 points per game this season. Of course the Cavaliers struggles defensively were well-documented this season and they've allowed nearly 110 points per game on the season. There is simply exceptional value with the drop in this total because you know with the importance of this game, big difference between a 3-1 series and a 2-2, neither team is going to lie down late no matter the score. So a good tempo here with late fouling and big threes also a distinct possibility to add points. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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04-21-18 | Rockets v. Wolves OVER 214 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #721 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets @ 7:35 ET - Ladies and gentlemen, this total opened up at a 213 and is now as high as a 214.5 despite the fact that both games in this series have easily stayed under the total AND the Rockets are on an 11-2 run to the under. So what does that tell you? Some sharp money is on the over here folks. This is a contrarian play. Most will be enticed to the under but the over is the way to go. Yes, the Timberwolves are on a 5-1 run to the under also but, after struggling with their shot at Houston, look for them to shoot much better at home in Minnesota. Also, the Rockets are making just 29% of their three pointers so far in this series but that is not going to continue. Houston is too strong of a shooting team and they will hit their stride again. The Rockets actually hit 38 of 82 (46.3%) of their three pointers in their two games at Minnesota in the regular season and they'll get it rolling again tonight. The Wolves have averaged 114 points per game in their last 4 home games versus the Rockets and the over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings there. The Timberwolves are 8-4 to the over this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards OVER 218 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 102 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - There really is no reason to expect the high-scoring ways of this series to come to a stop just yet. The Wizards average nearly 4 points more at home compared to on the road while the Raptors average under 2 points less on the road compared to at home. Also, the Toronto defense does allow about 4 points more when on the road this season while the Washington defense shows an average only about 2 points better when at home compared to on the road. The Wizards simply are not known as a team that wins with defense. In fact, in their last 15 home wins they've allowed an average of 105.4 points per game. Again, they win with offense and this is a desperate Washington team in search of a win to get back into this series but they simply can not stop the Raptors. Toronto has scored an average of 116.3 points per game in their last 4 games versus the Wizards. The Raptors have shot the ball very well overall in their last 5 games and have averaged 114.6 points per game during this stretch. The Wizards are 6-2 to the over in their last 8 games. Toronto is a long-term 23-16 when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Raptors also are 9-5 to the over this season when they are an underdog. Washington is 27-16 to the over when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, only 4 of 12 games have stayed under when the Wizards are off of a loss by a double digit margin. In other words, the Wizards respond to ugly defeats with offense not defense and that is what I expect to see again on Friday. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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04-19-18 | Blazers v. Pelicans OVER 216 | Top | 102-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:05 ET - During the regular season an average game for the Blazers or the Pelicans sees about 42 free throw attempts. However, in the last 3 meetings between these teams, including the first two of this post-season, the teams have averaged a total of only 25 free throw attempts. This certainly has had an impact on each of those 3 meetings staying under the total and I look for it to change tonight. Down 0-2 in the series and having lost both games on their home floor, Portland needs to come out very aggressive and attack the basket. This leads to more trips to the free throw line. The fact is that the Blazers have averaged 98 field goal attempts in their last 3 games against the Pelicans so the pacing has certainly been there for an over. Tonight we'll finally see the pace correlate properly to a higher scoring game. New Orleans has shot the ball very well their last 7 games and that is why they've scored 111 points or more in 6 of those 7 games. Look for the Pelicans to stay hot here but the desperate Blazers will answer them bucket for bucket as this game goes on. The over is a long-term 81-42 in Pelicans home games and that includes 28-13 this season! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans |
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04-11-18 | Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 213 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets @ 8:05 ET - The winner of this game goes to the post-season. The loser is out. As a result of those high stakes as well as Denver's ultra low scoring win over Portland Monday, there has been a dramatic over-reaction with this total. The very first O/U that popped up on this one was a 220. Now, as of Tuesday evening, the total is all the way down to a 213. This is offering incredible line value for the over. Keep in mind, the loser is out. There is no tomorrow for this season. That said, I look at this game from a different viewpoint. Late game big scoring pushes are going to be huge. There will be fouling for the team that is trailing. They will be jacking up threes. Even if still down 10 with a minute to go there is likely to still be fouling (hence free throws) and then corresponding quick threes jacked up. Again, because there is no tomorrow. With all that said, I like the fact that both of these teams are plenty capable of going on quick scoring runs and I expect this game to have plenty of dramatics throughout. The Nuggets are averaging 110 points per game this season and the Timberwolves are averaging 111.4 points per game at home this season. Both teams allow at least 107.3 points per game as their season average. The Nuggets have hit 37% of their threes this season. Minnesota hit 36% of their threes at home this season but also allowed 36.6% three-pointers! You can see why there are likely to be some big shots and big scoring runs in this one. The over is 26-14 this season in Denver's games versus teams with a winning record. The over is 16-7 in the Timberwolves last 23 games versus teams with a winning record. Sure there will be intensity in this game but guys will be knocking down threes too and also looking to get quick points in transition rather than let their opponent get set on defense first. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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04-05-18 | Warriors v. Pacers OVER 210.5 | Top | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 10* OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - This total opened up at a 213.5 and is now down to a 210.5 as of early gameday morning. Of course everyone is looking at the match-up last week between these two teams in Golden State and the fact that it totaled only 173 points. Folks, it is never that easy. The fact is that the result from last week is merely serving to give us exceptional line value here and I won't hesitate to step in. The Pacers were on a 3-1 run to the over before their game at Denver stayed just under the total Tuesday. Also, Indiana has shot at least 48.1% in each of their last 5 games and that includes the loss to the Nuggets. As for the Warriors, they are starting to heat up again and have averaged 111.8 points per game their last four games. They have shot at least 49.4% from the field in all 4 of those games. Golden State is off of an upset win at Oklahoma City and the Warriors are 5-2 to the over the last 7 times they were off of an outright win as an underdog. The fact that both of these teams have been trending under of late has greatly impacted market perception right now. The fact is they both come into this game shooting the ball very well and this is a late season non-conference match-up that should see plenty of offensive fireworks. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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04-04-18 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 212.5 | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers and Pistons are two of the hottest teams in the league. However, both teams are also without key big men in the paint. This is going to allow both teams to attack the basket and, with the confidence of long winning streaks in tow, each team comes into this game with plenty of confidence on the offensive end. The 76ers have won 11 straight games and have averaged 116.8 points per game during this streak. The Pistons have won 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8 and they've averaged 109 points per game during this strong 8-game stretch. The point is that we could easily see this game reach the 226 range if these teams just play like the have been. With some missing pieces in the paint, I definitely expect this one to get into that range as the interior defense for each team has been weakened. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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04-03-18 | Pacers v. Nuggets OVER 214 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Situational Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #719 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers @ 9:05 ET - The over is 22-6 in the Nuggets last 28 games yet this total drifted down some this morning. Of course that is because the Pacers have a much different reputation than that of the Nuggets. However, with Denver being at home I do expect they will control the tempo and they'll force the Pacers to keep pace! Additionally, Indiana has shot at least 48% from the field in 4 straight games but has struggled at times on the defensive end. The Pacers have allowed 47.7% or more from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The over is 3-1 in Indiana's last 4 games. Also, the last 7 times that the Pacers have entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games, they over has gone 5-2. Look for more of the same here as Denver is 7-2 to the over this season against Central Division opponents. Also, the Nuggets are 25-11 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season! 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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