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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-18 | Kings +10.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 129-149 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over New Orleans. The Pelicans upset Houston, which was the team with the league's best record last season (65-17). Let's fade New Orleans at home on Friday, as NBA teams have cashed just 26.3% since 1990 as favorites off an upset win over an opponent which owned a .500 (or better) record the previous season. Take Sacramento + the points. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-18 | Hornets -2.5 v. Magic | Top | 120-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Orlando. The Hornets lost at home, on Wednesday, by a single point to the Milwaukee Bucks. Meanwhile, Orlando upset the Miami Heat, 104-101, as a 2.5-point home dog. We'll play against Orlando, as underdogs that opened the season with an upset win have covered just 20% of their Game 2s since 1990 when matched up against an opponent off a loss. Take Charlotte. NBA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-18-18 | Lakers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the LA Lakers. To say the Blazers have dominated the Lakers would be an understatement. Since April 2014, Portland has won ALL 15 meetings, and has covered the point spread in 13 of the 15 games. Admittedly, this is a different Lakers team, with LeBron James being the featured player. But Portland has won and covered its last four home meetings vs. LeBron James, so I'm not dissuaded from taking the Blazers. Even better: Portland has a second streak at play tonight, which is more impressive than its 15-0 record vs. the Lakers. And that's Portland's record in its home openers. It's the longest win streak in NBA history, and currently sits at 17 games (14-3 ATS). Lay the points with the Trail Blazers. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-18 | Broncos -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 62 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over Arizona. The Broncos have lost their last four games, and have been installed as a small favorite on the road vs. Arizona. The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the ice-cold Broncos. But consider that NFL teams off back to back losses have gone 32-6 straight-up and 28-9-1 ATS (including 10-0-1 ATS since 2014) on Thursdays when installed as a favorite (or PK). Moreover, Denver falls into terrific 211-118 and 306-210 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in non-division games. Take the Broncos. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 64 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Kansas City. The Chiefs enter this game with the conference's best record, at 5-0. And they're also 5-0 ATS. Unfortunately, they're likely to leave Foxborough with their first loss. Key for me is the fact that the Patriots have gone 36-12 ATS vs. foes with a superior won/loss percentage. Even better: New England plays with revenge from a 42-27 upset loss to the Chiefs last season. But the Patriots are 14-0-1 ATS when playing with revenge from an 8+ point upset loss the previous season. Take New England. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans +3 | Top | 21-0 | Loss | -125 | 59 h 15 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Baltimore. This is a horrible scheduling spot for the Ravens, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game. And one of the things I love to do is play against a team in its 3rd straight road game, and especially if it's matched up against an opponent with a winning record. Since 1980, our road teams are a dismal 53-91 ATS in this situation. That bodes well for Tennessee as the home underdog, here.  As does the fact that Tennessee was upset as a road favorite last week, given that home underdogs, off an upset loss as a road favorite the previous week, have gone 79-53 ATS since 1980. Take the Titans |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 9 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Los Angeles Rams. The Broncos were upset on the road last week by the New York Jets, and are now on a 3-game losing streak (and a 4-game ATS losing streak). But I love them to bounce back against the NFL's best team. Indeed, home underdogs of +6 or more points have cashed 67.8% over the last 38 years off an upset road loss. And Denver is 30-17-3 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 23-11-1 ATS vs. non-division foes. Finally, undefeated teams (like the Rams) have cashed just 36.8% when laying more than 6 points away from home. Take Denver + the points. NFL Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. And don't miss my Red-Hot Winners, as we are 20-4 our last 24 selections. |
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10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 56 h 49 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Cincy Bengals. The Steelers leveled their record at 2-2-1 last week when they blew out the Atlanta Falcons, 41-17, while Cincy won its second straight game -- 27-17 at home vs. Miami -- to move to 4-1 this season. This series has been completely dominated by Pittsburgh. Indeed, since 1991, the Steelers are 42-14 straight-up, and 36-18-2 ATS, including 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS since Dec. 2015. And even though Pittsburgh is regarded as having one of the stronger home field in the league, it's actually been better on the road (20-7-2 ATS) vs. the Bengals, than at home (16-11 ATS). Finally, the Steelers fall into a 60.8% ATS "contrarian" system of mine which plays on certain road teams with a worse win percentage than their opponent, provided they weren't getting more than three points. Take the Steelers. |
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10-14-18 | Chargers +2 v. Browns | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Cleveland. The Cleveland Browns were 0-16 last season, and no doubt are improved this season. But I question whether they have improved enough to be favored over a team like the L.A. Chargers. Indeed, for my money, the Chargers are flying a bit under the radar. They're 3-2 on the year, but consider that their 2 losses were to the league's two undefeated teams (Kansas City + the LA Rams). And the Chargers actually have out-yarded four of their five opponents this season. Even though they lost to the Chiefs, they actually out-yarded them 541 to 362, but were done in by two turnovers. For technical support, consider that teams that didn't win 2 (or more) games the previous season have gone 10-22 ATS as a favorite over the past 28 seasons. Moreover, Cleveland's 10-19-1 ATS its last 30 as a home favorite. Take the Chargers as a road underdog. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-18 | Panthers v. Redskins +1.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Carolina. We played against both of these teams last week, and got the cash with the Giants as a touchdown underdog at Carolina, and also with the Saints as a touchdown favorite vs. Washington. New Orleans blew out Washington, 43-19, this past Monday. But that defeat sets up our play, here, as home underdogs (or PK) are 72-49 after losing a game in which they gave up 40+ points if they're playing a foe off a straight-up win. Take the Redskins to bounce back at home this afternoon. NFC Game of the Week. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-13-18 | Miami-FL v. Virginia +7 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Miami-Fla. Virginia had last weekend off to rest and prepare for this game following its blowout, 35-21 loss at NC State. And that was Virginia's first game this season in which it failed to cover the point spread. I love the Cavaliers to bounce back on Saturday, as it's been installed as a home underdog. And Virginia's performed much better over the years as a home dog (12-5 Last 17) than as a home favorite (5-16-3 ATS its last 24), so that bodes well for it in this game. As does the fact that the underdog is 12-2 in this series' last 14 meetings. Indeed, last year, Virginia was a 20.5-point underdog and actually led by 14 points in the 2nd half. But Miami stormed back late to win by 16, 44-28 (though it failed to cover). Finally, single-digit ACC home underdogs off a straight-up loss are 106-53 ATS vs. .500 (or better) conference foes. Take Virginia. |
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10-13-18 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 33 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Iowa State. The 6th-ranked Mountaineers are 5-0 straight-up, and 4-1 ATS, and have been installed as a road favorite in this game. I love the Mountaineers to blow out the Cyclones, as Iowa State comes into this game off an outright win as a double-digit underdog at Oklahoma State last week. And, since 1980, teams off SU wins as a double-digit underdog the previous week have cashed just 40.9% when matched up against an opponent off a win. This system is already a perfect 3-0 this season, and one of its wins was, coincidentally, in West Virginia's last road game, at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders had blown out Oklahoma State, 41-17, as a 14.5-point underdog the previous week, and then came home to face WVU. Unfortunately, they suffered a letdown, and the Mountaineers won (and covered) in a 42-34 victory. Same result should occur here, in Ames, Iowa. Take West Virginia. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-13-18 | New Mexico State v. UL-Lafayette -7.5 | Top | 38-66 | Win | 100 | 42 h 34 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin Cajuns minus the points over New Mexico State. We played on the Aggies last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Liberty Flames, 49-41, as a 4-point home underdog. However, I often like to go against teams off upset wins, as they are susceptible to letdowns. And that, I believe, will happen here, as New Mexico State falls into a negative 22-72 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams, on the road, off upset wins. Meanwhile, Lafayette checks in off a 42-27 blowout of Texas State, and falls into a 136-67 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit wins. Finally, the Aggies are an awful 7-43 straight-up and 18-32 ATS as a road underdog in non-conference games. Lay the points with the Cajuns. |
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10-13-18 | New Mexico v. Colorado State +1 | Top | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over New Mexico. Last week, we played on the Lobos in their big upset win, as an 8-point underdog, at UNLV. The Lobos won that game, 50-14, so they covered by 44 points. Off that win, the Lobos have been installed as a PK against the Rams. But teams off upset wins, in which they covered by 39+ points, have cashed just 19.2% since 1980 away from home when PK'em or favored. And the Lobos, themselves, are 0-4 ATS as a road favorite (or PK) off an upset win. Take Colorado St. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-18 | Central Florida v. Memphis +5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 60 h 28 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida. The Knights are currently riding an 18-game win streak, and are ranked among the Top 10 in the Country, with a 5-0 record this season. But this is going to be a difficult game to win. One factor going against them is the fact that they’re on the road after playing their four previous games at home. And Central Florida covered the spread in each of their last three games vs. Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh and SMU. Unfortunately, road teams have covered just 38 of 107 games following three straight ATS wins at home, including 8-27 their last 35 when they owned a win percentage greater than .850.  Another factor on the side of Memphis is the fact that it will be playing with revenge from a 62-55 loss to the Knights in last season’s AAC Conference Title game. And winning teams playing with revenge from a post-season defeat have cashed 62.8% since 1990 when installed as an underdog. Take Memphis + the points. AAC Conference Game of the Year. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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10-13-18 | Washington v. Oregon +3.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 40 h 37 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Washington. The Huskies have rebounded nicely off their opening week loss to Auburn, and are now 5-1 on the season. But this is a major step-up in class from the types of opponents (e.g., Arizona St., BYU, UCLA) that Washington has seen over the last few weeks. Indeed, but for a senseless, last-minute collapse vs. Stanford, the Ducks would be 5-0, and ranked, like Washington, among the Top 10. So, this is a huge game, as it will go a long way toward determining the winner of the Pac-12 North Division. The Ducks have a big advantage in that they had last week off to rest and prepare for this game. And Oregon falls into a super 70-22, 76% ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested teams in Conference games, as well as a 101-48 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded squads (Oregon lost 38-3 last season, so is playing with revenge). Finally, in games between winning teams (that were also both winning teams last season), home teams playing with revenge from a 33-point (or worse) defeat have gone 57-29 ATS since 1998, including 10-2 ATS when playing with rest. Take the Ducks. |
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10-13-18 | Georgia v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 40 h 37 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Georgia. We played on Florida last week in a home dog role vs. LSU, and got the $$$ when the Gators upset the previously-unbeaten Tigers, 27-19. This week, however, I look for LSU to turn the tables on the undefeated Bulldogs. Indeed, winning teams have cashed 60.0% ATS as conference home underdogs off an upset conference loss on the road the previous week since 1980. Finally, LSU is 15-4-1 as an underdog of +3 or more points off an upset loss, including 9-1 ATS their last 10. Take LSU. |
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10-13-18 | Baylor +14 v. Texas | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 36 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Texas. The Longhorns have reeled off 5 straight wins following their upset loss at Maryland to start the 2018 season. Last week, Texas' victim was Oklahoma, which entered the game undefeated, with a 5-0 record. But Texas upset the Sooners, as a 7-point underdog. And now they'll go for their sixth straight win, at home. vs. the 4-2 Bears. Let's grab the points with the Bears as winning, double-digit underdogs have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. conference foes off an upset conference win. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-18 | Florida v. Vanderbilt +7.5 | Top | 37-27 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 4 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Florida. We played on the Florida Gators last week in their upset win, at home, vs. the then-undefeated LSU Tigers. However, off that upset win, I look for a letdown this Saturday in Nashville. Indeed, one of the things I love to do is go against college football favorites away from home that upset a previously undefeated foe, if they're now matched up against a .500 (or better) opponent coming off a loss. Since 1982, such teams have covered just 25.4 percent of the time. And, yes, it's true that Florida has dominated this series, including winning the last 13 straight-up here in Nashville. But the Commodores are 12-5 ATS when playing with revenge vs. opponents off an upset win. Take Vanderbilt. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-18 | Air Force v. San Diego State -10.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -118 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Air Force. We played on SDSU last week as a huge underdog at Boise State, and were rewarded with a 19-13 upset win. Some may look for a letdown on Friday night, but not me. Indeed, winning home favorites of -7+ points, off outright wins as 8-point (or greater) road underdogs the previous week, have cashed 18 in a row vs. losing teams! Meanwhile, Air Force is a horrid 11-24 ATS away from home vs. conference foes, including 1-8 ATS its last nine. Lay the points with San Diego State. Perfect 10 Club. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the New York Giants. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles were upset, 23-21, at home last Sunday by the Vikings. And that was their second straight loss, overall. But those two defeats set up our play tonight, as defending champs have cashed 60% over the last 37 seasons off back to back losses, including 85% ATS on the road if they entered with a losing record. The Eagles are 2-3, and know that they have to win tonight, if they are to have any hope of securing a Top 2 Conference record, and the all-important bye in the first round of the playoffs which comes with it. The Giants are an awful 3-10 ATS their last 13 games as a home underdog of +4 or less points. Take Philly. NFL High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints -6 | Top | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Washington. The New Orleans Saints were expected to be one of the NFL's best teams this season, but did get off to a slow start, as they failed to cover the spread in their first two games -- both at home, by the way -- including a straight-up loss to Tampa Bay, as a 10-point favorite. But then the Saints bounced back with impressive road wins at Atlanta, and at the New York Giants. Now, they will try to cash a ticket in front of their home faithful, and they will welcome a Redskins team which upset Green Bay, 31-17, in its last game.  I like the Saints here, as Monday Night home favorites, off back to back road games, are 57-32-3 ATS, including 25-7 ATS if their win percentage was .700 or better. Likewise, Monday Night home teams, off a SU/ATS win, with a winning record on the season, have gone 67-28 ATS vs. non-division foes. And, finally, the Redskins have had very little success on Monday Night Football, as they've gone 16-36-1 ATS since 1980, including 2-15 ATS if they covered their previous game by more than 11 points. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always.....Al McMordie. |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 9-12 | Win | 110 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore. The Ravens have won the last five games in this series, but that win streak should end this afternoon. Indeed, this is a horrid scheduling spot for Baltimore. Last week, it went into Pittsburgh, and upset its division rival, 26-14, as a 3-point underdog. Now, it has to play a second straight road game, and also against a division rival. Unfortunately, NFL teams favored against a division foe are an awful 69-96-5 ATS off an upset win on the road vs. a division foe, including 34-57 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes. Take Cleveland. NFL Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Liberty v. New Mexico State +4.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Liberty. The Aggies had last week off following their road win at UTEP two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Flames are 2-2 this season with an upset win in their opener vs. Old Dominion, and a 52-43 road upset win at the New Mexico Lobos last weekend. The Flames were a 7-point underdog last week, and one of the things I love to do is go against .500 (or worse) teams in back-to-back road games, if they won as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and were playing a rested opponent. Since 1980, our road teams have cashed just 37%. Take New Mexico State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | UTSA +1 v. Rice | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over Rice. The Roadrunners have yet to cash a ticket in Las Vegas this season, but it's not because they've been playing exceptionally poorly. Rather, their games were mostly point spread coin-flips that just happened to result in losses. Indeed, the Roadrunners failed to cover their last four games by 1, 3, 3.5 and 0.5 points (an average of 2 points per game). So, while some will stay away from the Roadrunners for their lack of point spread success, I'm not concerned. Meanwhile, the Rice Owls have been installed as a small favorite, even though they were underdogs of +25, +17, +13.5 and +28 points in their four games vs. Division 1 foes this season. And teams that were favored (or PK) at home vs. conference foes off a win, after being double-digit underdogs in each of their three previous game, have cashed just 37% the past 38 years. Take the Roadrunners. |
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10-06-18 | Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic -13 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Old Dominion. The Owls lost a heartbreaker last week when Middle Tennessee scored a touchdown (and a subsequent 2-point conversion) on a 4th-and-goal play with less than a minute left in the game. That lowered the Owls' road record this season to 0-3, but it returns home this weekend, where it is undefeated on the season (with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman). Here, Florida Atlantic will welcome Old Dominion, which is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this season, with a negative 15.67 scoring margin, and a negative 15.5 point spread differential. That doesn't bode well for Old Dominion. And neither does the fact that Conference USA favorites of -8.5 (or more) points are an awesome 31-10 ATS off an upset loss. Finally, Florida Atlantic falls into 71-29 and 81-32 ATS systems of mine that go against certain conference foes with a losing record. Take the Owls. |
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10-06-18 | New Mexico +8 v. UNLV | Top | 50-14 | Win | 100 | 41 h 57 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over UNLV. Last week, the Lobos were upset, 52-43, at home by the Liberty Flames. So, they'll look to bounce back on Saturday afternoon in their Mountain West Conference opener. Since 1980, road underdogs off an upset loss the previous week have covered 67.8% in their conference openers. Both of these teams are saddled with injuries at the quarterback position. UNLV, though, should suffer more by losing Armani Rogers, than will New Mexico for its injuries. The Rebels' top QB has excelled this season, with 857 combined yards and 12 TDs (369 passing yards, 488 rushing yards). He'll be replaced by sophomore Max Gilliam, who doesn't have Rogers' explosive speed to make big plays. In contrast, New Mexico's Sheriron Jones might be the Lobos' 3rd string QB, but he was great last week in relief. The Lobos were down 42-10 at the half to Liberty, but he threw for 312 yards and four TDs in slightly more than 30 minutes of action to bring the Lobos back in an eventual 9-point loss. New Mexico has also cashed 75% over the last 38 years off an upset home loss. Take the Lobos. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | LSU v. Florida +3 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over LSU. I love playing on home underdogs with great defenses. For the season, Florida has held its opponents to just 14 points per game. And home underdogs, at Game 6 forward, that have a defense which doesn't give up more than 14 ppg have gone 45-22 ATS vs. undefeated teams. That's one reason I favor the Gators. Another is that undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record have cashed just 64 of 159 vs. .666 (or better) foes. Take Florida. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Miami-OH +5 v. Akron | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 55 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Akron. The Red Hawks have covered 12 of 16 conference road games, including a 38-23 blowout win at Bowling Green two weeks ago. Last Saturday, though, Miami lost a 1-point game, at home, to Western Michigan. But I love the Red Hawks to bounce back on the road on Saturday, as road teams have cashed 65.3% in Mid American Conference games off a single-digit home loss the previous week. Take Miami-Ohio + the points. Underdog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | San Diego State +14 v. Boise State | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 2 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs + the points over Boise State. The Aztecs have won three straight, and had last weekend off to prepare for this big Mountain West game at Boise State. Last season, Boise went 7-1 inside the Conference and won the title game. San Diego State was 6-2, including a 31-14 upset loss, at home. So, this is a big revenge game for the Aztecs. Since 1999, rested Mountain West conference teams have cashed 75.8% away from home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting 12+ points. That bodes well for San Diego St. Also, it's true that Boise has been generally very strong against the spread over the years. But the reality is that it has beat up on the really bad teams (e.g., 58-35 ATS vs. losing teams), or teams playing poorly (e.g., 51-21 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss), while it has done comparatively worse vs. better teams. Indeed, Boise has gone 0-12 ATS the last 4 seasons when favored vs. winning teams off a win. Take the Aztecs. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Maryland v. Michigan -17 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 35 h 4 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland. The Wolves came back from a 17-0 deficit at Northwestern last week, and eked out a 3-point win. Last week's performance will keep a lot of bettors away from laying double-digits this week with Michigan. Indeed, the current number, as of this writing, has come down from the opener. Generally speaking, it's been profitable to back double-digit favorites that failed to cover the spread by 10+ points as a double digit favorite the previous week, if they were now playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win (which Maryland is). Since 1980, such double-digit favorites have cashed 57%. This will be a rout. Lay the points with Michigan. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Eastern Michigan +4 v. Western Michigan | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Western Michigan. The Eagles lost a tough game in overtime last week, at home, vs. Northern Illinois. That lowered EMU's Mid-American Conference record to 0-2 on the season. But I love the Eagles to bounce back on Saturday, as NCAA Underdogs of +3 or more points, off an upset conference loss, and an 0-2 conference record, have cashed 61% since 1980. And, although there's nothing wrong with 61%, we can increase our system to 70% if we don't go against any team playing with revenge. In this series, Eastern Michigan has lost the last four meetings. The revenger is 13-7 ATS in this series, and the revenger has also cashed 61% of Mid-American Conference games the past 11 years if it was off a home upset loss. Finally, Eastern Michigan falls into 53-15, 84-48 and 54-21 ATS systems that play on certain teams off losses. Take the Eagles + the points. Mid American Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-06-18 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincy Bearcats minus the points over Tulane. The Green Wave shocked the Memphis Tigers, 40-24, last week as a 14.5-point home underdog to move their record to 2-3 on the season. Unfortunately for Tulane, losing teams rarely pull off two big upsets in a row, and especially not when they're playing on the road against really good teams. Here, Tulane is tasked with handing the Bearcats their first defeat of the season. Cincy is 5-0 straight-up (and 4-1 ATS), including wins over UCLA, Miami-Ohio, Ohio U. and UConn. And, since 1980, underdogs with a losing record have covered the spread just 25% of the time on the road vs. .850 (or better) foes, if they were off an upset win as a 13-point (or greater) underdog. Take Cincinnati. |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma -7 v. Texas | Top | 45-48 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas. We played on Oklahoma last week, and were rewarded with a 66-33 victory over Baylor. And we also played against Texas, and got the cash with Kansas State, which covered as an 8.5-point underdog. Once again, we will play on Oklahoma and against Texas. The Sooners are averaging a whopping 48.6 ppg, and fall into a super NCAA regular season 'momentum' system of mine. What we want to do is play on any single-digit favorite (or PK) off a SU/ATS win, in which they scored 60+ points, if they are playing a at home, or on a neutral field. Since 1980, this angle has cashed 72%. Take Oklahoma to blow out the Longhorns. |
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10-06-18 | Illinois v. Rutgers +5.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights + the points over Illinois. Illinois has started the season 2-2 straight-up, and 2-2 ATS. Yet this will be its first road game of the season, as it had the huge benefit of opening with four straight home games. I don't like playing on road teams this late in the season, and especially not when installed as a favorite and/or they don't have a winning record. Indeed, since 1980, road favorites, with a .500 (or worse) record, have cashed just 33% of their conference games, if it was Game 5 forward, and also their first road game of the season. Even worse for Illinois: it's been an unreliable favorite, priced from -3 to -10.5 points, with an 18-38 ATS record since 2001. Take Rutgers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston -17.5 | Top | 26-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Tulsa. The Cougars exploded for 70 points last week, and have scored an average of 52.25 ppg this season. As faithful followers know, I love playing on teams that can score. And home favorites (or PK), off a win in which they scored 50+ points, have gone 572-426-15 ATS since 1980. Houston is 35-20 ATS off a win, while Tulsa is 35-63 ATS off back to back losses. This will be a rout. Lay the points! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-04-18 | Georgia State v. Troy -15 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Georgia State. Last week, the Georgia State Panthers upset Louisiana-Monroe, 46-14, as a 5.5-point home underdog. But that was the first time (in four games) that the Panthers covered the point spread vs. a Division 1 foe this season. And its upset win has set it up in a negative, 39-103 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road underdogs off upset wins. Meanwhile, Troy State has won (and covered) each of its last four games, including a 45-21 blowout of Coastal Carolina last Saturday. Troy St. has cashed 67% since 2001 vs. foes off a win that had a losing ATS record. And double-digit underdogs, with a losing SU/ATS record, off an upset win, that covered the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game have cashed just 37.9% since 1980. Take Troy to blow out Georgia State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City. The Chiefs have been the biggest surprise so far this season, as they're 3-0, and have scored 38, 42 and 38 points in their first three contests. KC has also covered the point spread by an average of 9.33 ppg (while Denver has failed to cover by an average of -4 ppg). But such an offensive stretch of games typically leads to a poor performance. Indeed, since 1980, teams off back to back SU/ATS wins, in which they scored more than 30 points in each victory, have covered just 79 of 188 games vs. foes off SU/ATS losses, including 0-6 ATS since 2005 on Monday Night Football. Moreover, the Broncos are 30-15-2 ATS as a home underdog (or PK) since 1981, and also 18-3-1 ATS at home vs. foes with a relative pointspread differential of +8.33 or more points, including 9-0 ATS their last nine when not laying 3 or more points. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-18 | Texans +1.5 v. Colts | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are 0-3 straight-up and ATS this season. But Indianapolis isn't much better, as it's won just once this season. And one of the things I love to do is play on winless SU/ATS teams, at Game 4 forward, on the road, as underdogs (or PK) vs. losing teams. Our winless teams have covered 65.5% since 1980 in this situation, so that bodes very well for Houston on Sunday. Moreover, Houston lost last week, at home, as a 6.5-point favorite. And road underdogs (or PK) off an upset home loss, as a 6.5 point (or bigger) favorite, have covered 58% over the last 38 years. Take Houston. NFL Division Game of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-30-18 | Bills v. Packers -9 | Top | 0-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Buffalo. Last week, the Bills pulled off the biggest upset in 23 years, as they won outright as a 16.5-point underdog at Minnesota. The last team to achieve such a victory was Washington, back in 1995, when it upset Dallas, 24-17, as a 17.5-point dog. But what was most impressive wasn't that Buffalo won, it was that it won by 21 points. Unfortunately, I don't think it will win back-to-back games. Indeed, since 1980, teams off upset wins as double-digit road underdogs have gone 56-80 ATS in their next game, including 17-33 ATS if they were playing back-to-back road games. And the Packers have gone 47-25 ATS at home with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback, including 14-2 ATS vs. opponents off a road win. Take Green Bay. |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Miami. The Dolphins have sprinted out to a 3-0 start this season, while New England is lagging behind with a 1-2 record. But I believe the Dolphins will come back down to earth on Sunday. Indeed, since 2002, there have been 15 undefeated teams, with a record of 3-0 or better that have been installed as an underdog of +5 or more points. Those 15 teams have gone 1-14 straight-up, and 5-9-1 ATS. Also, the Patriots have gone 8-0 straight-up, and 7-1 ATS since November 2002 when they were off back to back losses. Finally, home teams have cashed 37 of 54 off upset losses on the road, if their opponent was off three SU/ATS wins. Take New England. |
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09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Detroit Lions. Matt Patricia's Lions upset his former team -- the New England Patriots -- as a 7-point underdog last Sunday night. However, teams that pull off such big upsets rarely win back to back games in the underdog role. In fact, since 1980, road underdogs have cashed just 42% off a home underdog outright win as a 7-point (or bigger) dog. And Detroit's a poor 28-56-3 ATS on the road off a win. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 70 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State. This is a rematch of last year's game, when the Nittany Lions also entered it undefeated, but were handed their first loss, 39-38, by the Buckeyes. This season, the stakes are just as high, as both teams are unbeaten after four games. After squeaking by Appalachian State in its opener, Penn State has demolished its last three opponents. It's won its last three games by a combined 177-40, and has covered the spread by an average of 22.16 ppg. In contrast, the Buckeyes, who have won their last three games by a combined 141-37, have only had a point spread differential of + 6.5 ppg in their last three. Unfortunately, for Ohio State, teams playing away from home have gone 0-15 SU/ATS against a revenge-minded foe which scored 122+ points in its two previous games, if our road team didn't score 100+ points in its two previous games. Even worse for the Buckeyes: home dogs of +2.5 (or more) points, that average more than 29.5 ppg on offense, off back-to-back wins, have gone 236-164 ATS. Over the last 3 seasons, Penn State is 13-1 ATS off back-to-back wins, and has covered by an average of 10.66 ppg. Take the Nittany Lions. Big 10 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | Florida Atlantic -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 24-25 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Owls are 2-2 this year, with 2 home wins and 2 road losses. This will be the Owls' 3rd road game of the season. However, in their first two road games they played Oklahoma (currently ranked #6) and Central Florida (currently ranked #13). This road game will be much easier, as Middle Tennessee is unranked, and has nowhere near the talent level of those two other schools. The Owls have been installed as a small favorite in this game. And since November 12, 2016, Florida Atlantic has had a sharp dichotomy in how its performed as a favorite or an underdog. Indeed, the Owls are 14-0 straight-up (9-4-1 ATS) as a favorite, compared to 0-7 straight-up (1-6 ATS) as an underdog. Take the Owls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | UTEP v. UTSA -10 | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners minus the points over Texas El Paso. On the surface, it might look difficult to play on Texas San Antonio, given that it's 0-4 ATS this season. But the Roadrunners fall into a 65% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses. Meanwhile, UTEP has been the worst team in College Football since last season. It's now lost its last 16 games, straight-up, and is 2-23 SU and 6-17-2 ATS its last 25 lined games. Take the Roadrunners minus the points. |
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09-29-18 | Florida v. Mississippi State -7 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Florida. Last week, Mississippi State was upset, 28-7, as a double-digit favorite at Kentucky, while Florida won, 47-21, as a 4.5-point favorite at Tennessee. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Gators as a touchdown underdog, given that it covered by more than 21 points, while Mississippi State failed to cover last week by 31 points. However, underdogs of 7 or more points off a cover by 21 or more points have cashed just 38% over the last 30 years vs. opponents off a point spread loss by 21 or more points. That's one reason I favor the Bulldogs. Another is that teams off an upset conference loss by 18 or more points, have covered just 24 of 78 conference games since 1980 vs. foes off a straight-up and against the spread win. This will be a rout. Lay the points with the Bulldogs. SEC Conference Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Northern Illinois. The Eagles have lost 10 straight games in this series, but have been installed as the favorite. And I love them to finally break through with a win vs. the Huskies, as they fall into a 43-16 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favored teams playing with revenge. Even better: the Eagles have continued to "pay off" in Vegas this season, as they're 3-1 ATS this year, and 20-8 ATS dating back to November 27, 2015 (including 12-2 ATS off a straight-up loss). This will also be the Eagles' first home game after three straight road games. In their only other home game this season, they won 51-17, as a 22.5-point favorite vs. Monmouth. They didn't find the same success away from home, as they went 1-2 SU (but 2-1 ATS). However, I expect them to blow out Northern Illinois, which is 0-5 SU/ATS its last five games away from home. Lay the points. |
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09-29-18 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -23.5 | Top | 33-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Baylor. The Sooners have started this season perfectly, as they're 4-0. But they have failed to cover the point spread for their last three straight games. They'll try to get back into the win column "in Vegas" vs. Baylor this Saturday. Baylor comes into Norman off a 26-7 win over Kansas last week. And we'll lay the points with the Sooners, as undefeated teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record, off three ATS losses, have covered 60% since 1980 vs. foes off a win. Take Oklahoma. |
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09-29-18 | Texas v. Kansas State +8.5 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over the Texas Longhorns. Last week, the Longhorns upset TCU, 31-16, as a 2.5-point home underdog. But off that win, we will fade the Longhorns at Kansas State. This will actually be the Longhorns first true road game, played on an opponent's home field, this season. And Texas falls into negative 11-41 and 7-29 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams, off upset wins, playing on the road vs. conference foes. Additionally, Kansas State is an awesome 27-6 ATS in conference games off a loss by 20 or more points. Finally, Big 12 Conference teams have cashed just 42% as road favorites off an upset win since 1980. Take the Wildcats + the points. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-18 | South Alabama v. Appalachian State -25 | Top | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over South Alabama. Appy State exploded for 72 points last week, and has covered each of its first three games this season. The Mountaineers are averaging 51.67 points this season, and I love playing on teams that score a lot of points. Indeed, since 1980, NCAA teams have covered the spread 60% in Game 4, if they averaged 50+ points in their first three games, including 71% if they were favored by 25 points or more. And double-digit favorites, after scoring 70+ points in a home win which they covered by 10+ points, have gone 30-11 ATS since 1980. It's true that South Alabama covered a big number at Memphis last week when it was a 31.5-point dog, and only lost by 17. But the Jaguars are a awful 1-12 ATS their last 13 off a point spread win, including 0-8 ATS as an underdog. Take Appalachian State. |
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09-29-18 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy -14 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers upset Louisiana-Lafayette, 30-28, on the road last week, as a 3-point underdog. And they also won and covered at Campbell the previous week. Unfortunately, they now are tasked with playing their third straight road game. And teams off back-to-back SU/ATS road wins, off an upset win, have covered just 37% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game. Lay the points with Troy State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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