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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-19-18 | Stanford +8 v. Oklahoma State | 65-71 | Win | 101 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Stanford @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET Game# 617-618 Play On: Stanford +8.0 (5*) Oklahoma State defeated Florida Gulf Coast 80-68 in the opening round of the NIT. The Cowboys won that game despite shooting an awful 35.6% from the field. As a matter of fact, Oklahoma State has shot a poor 38.6% from the field over its previous 3 games. Stanford was decimated by injuries earlier this season, and as a result they went an uninspiring 6-8 during its first 14 games. Since that time they’ve gone a respectable 13-7. Since game 15 of their season, Stanford is an extremely profitable 11-4 ATS (73.3%) when facing a team with a winning record. Bet on Stanford plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia OVER 159.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Marshall vs. West Virginia 9:40 PM ET Game# 721-722 Play On: Over 159.5 (10*) There’s good reason why this total is so high. Using an old boxing adage is appropriate in describing this matchup, “styles make fights”. Both team’s play up-tempo style of basketball. Marshall has averaged 62 field goal attempts and 84.2 points scored per game this season. The Thundering Herd are also one of the worst teams in Division 1 regarding scoring defense. They’re allowing a lofty 78.7 points per game while speeding its opponents up to the tune of 67 field goal attempts per game. West Virginia has seen 6 of its 7 previous games go over the total. The Mountaineers are averaging 79.8 points scored and 64 field goal attempts per game this season. West Virginia hasn’t been very good on the defensive end late. Over their last 5 games, West Virginia opponents combined to shoot 48.4% from the field and they’ve converted on an alarmingly high 43.3% of their 3-point shots. As Ralph Kramden would say to Alice on the old Honeymooners sitcom, “to the moon!” Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee UNDER 130.5 | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Loyola-Chicago vs. Tennessee 6:10 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Under 130.5 (5*) These teams are both very good defensively. Loyola has seen each of their previous 6 games go under the total, and there was just a combined average of 120.0 points scored per contest. The Ramblers allowed 62 points or less in each of those 6 outings. Tennessee has allowed 66 points or less in 7 of its last 8 games. Tennessee has gone under the total 5 straight times when they’re a favorite of 3.5-points or more, and there was a combined average of only 125.0 points scored per contest. This game has all the ear marks of a low scoring affair and that’s the precise direction that I’m choosing to go. Bet on the game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo +6 v. Kentucky | 75-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Buffalo vs. Kentucky 5:15 PM ET Game# 537-538 Play On: Buffalo +6.0 (5*) After starting this season 7-5, Buffalo has gone 20-3 during its last 23 games. Their 3 defeats during that time frame all came by 3 points or less. Buffalo is averaging a robust 84.9 points scored per game and that’s good for 6th nationally. The Bulls are one of those rare mid-majors which possess quality depth. As we witnessed in their game against Arizona, the moment isn’t too big for this gritty and vert talented Buffalo team. After all, this is their 3rd NCAA Tournament appearance in the last 4 years. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Buffalo pull off another shocking upset. Still, I’ll take the points as an additional bonus. Bet on Buffalo plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-17-18 | Alabama v. Villanova -11 | Top | 58-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
Alabama vs Villanova 12:10 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Villanova -11.0 (10*) Alabama has won 3 of their last 4 games, but that was preceded by a 5-game losing streak. The Crimson Tide have been awful defensively in their previous 2 outings, allowing 84.5 points per game and permitted its 2 opponents to shoot a blistering hot 60% from the floor. That’s troublesome when considering Villanova has shot a combined 52.7 % from the field and made an outstanding 45.7% of their 3-points attempts over their previous 5 games. Villanova is currently averaging 87.1 points per game. The Wildcats are coming off an 87-61 win over Radford in a game they led 44-23 at halftime. Alabama is an uninspiring 20-15, and especially considering they received an at-large invite and didn’t get an automatic bid as a conference tournament champion. The Crimson Tide is averaging 72.7 points scored per game this season. The combination of this data sets up a very profitable betting angle which is illustrated below. Any neutral court favorite that averages 76 or more points scored per game, and they led at the half by 20 points or more in their previous outing, versus an opponent (Alabama) that averages 67 to 74 points scored per contest and is playing after game 14 of the season, resulted in those favorites going 35-12 ATS (74.5%) since 1997. The average line in those 47 games was 11.1, and the favorites outscored their opponents by an average of 15.9 points per contest. Bet on Villanova minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-16-18 | Texas v. Nevada | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
Texas vs. Nevada 4:30 PM ET Game# 879-880 Play On: Nevada (10*) I haven’t been impressed by Texas at all this season. I thought at the very best they should’ve been playing on of the “First Four” games. Nevada has been a Top 25 team for a majority of this season. They were upset in the semifinals of their conference tournament by a red-hot San Diego State team. Nevada is the better team in this matchup and they will prevail. Bet on Nevada for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-15-18 | Buffalo +8.5 v. Arizona | Top | 89-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Buffalo vs. Arizona 9:40 PM ET Game# 739-740 Play On: Buffalo +8.5 (10*) Arizona spent the majority of the first half of this season underachieving. However, they rebounded in the second half of the campaign and it culminate by winning the PAC-12 Tournament championship. Nevertheless, it wasn’t a banner year for the PAC-12 with only 3 of their teams receiving a NCAA Tournament invite, and Arizona State was already eliminated in last night’s loss to Syracuse. Buffalo is fully capable of giving Arizona all they can handle and then some. The Bulls went 18-3 this season in MAC play, and all 3 of their defeats came by 3 points or less. They also lost to Cincinnati by just 6 and led Syracuse with less than 5 minutes to play at the Carrier Dome before falling short. The Bulls are an explosive offensive team and they possess quality depth. Unlike other mid-majors this Buffalo team will be difficult to wear down, and their ability to knock down 3-point shots will keep them in the game throughout. This will also be Buffalo’s 3rd trip to the NCAA Tournament in 4 years, so they won’t be in awe of the situation. They lost by 6 to West Virginia in 2015 and by 7 to Miami in 2016. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a huge upset in this contest. Nonetheless, I’ll take the points as an additional bonus. Bet on Buffalo plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-15-18 | NC State v. Seton Hall -2.5 | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
NC State vs. Seton Hall 4:30 PM ET Game# 729-730 Play On: Seton Hall -2.5 (5*) NC State has won 5 of their previous games. Unfortunately for Wolfpack fans, their team is 0-8 SU&ATS during the past 3 seasons after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. They lost those Seton Hall is coming off a 1-point loss to Butler during the Big East Conference Tournament. Meanwhile, NC State was eliminated in their first ACC Tourney game during a 91-87 loss to Boston College. This sets up an extremely profitable betting angle illustrated below. Any neutral court favorite (Seton Hall) coming off a loss by 6 points or less, versus an opponent coming off a game in which there was a combined 155 or more points scored, resulted in those favorites going 124-33 (795) straight up during the past 5 seasons. Considering the small number that the favorite is being asked to cover in this matchup, the straight up betting angle takes on added significance. Bet on Seton Hall for a 5* wager. |
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03-15-18 | Loyola-Chicago +1.5 v. Miami-FL | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
Loyola-Illinois vs. Miami 3:10 PM ET Game# 735-736 Play On: Loyola-Illinois +1.5 (5*) This is a very good Loyola team that enters with an outstanding 28-5 record. After starting Missouri Valley Conference play at 1-3, the Ramblers has won 17 of their last 18 games, and that includes their current 10-game unbeaten streak. In case you’re wondering about the level of competition that Loyola faced, they had an earlier road win over then 5th ranked Florida. The Ramblers have been terrific defensively of late, allowing a mere 54.0 points per contest, and held opponents to 38.8% shooting over their previous 5 outings. Meanwhile, defense has been an afterthought to Miami in recent games. As a matter of fact, during their previous 5 games Miami opponents are averaging 78.0 points per game while allowing them to shoot 49.8%. Bet On Loyola for a 5* wager. |
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03-15-18 | Oklahoma v. Rhode Island -2 | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
Oklahoma vs. Rhode Island 12:15 PM ET Game# 723-724 Play On: Rhode Island -2.0 (5*) I don’t know how a team that has lost 10 straight road/neutral site games in a row ends up with an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Nevertheless, Oklahoma not only managed to do so, but they weren’t even one of the final 4 teams to make it in. Rhode Island will enter this contest averaging 76.2 points scored per game. The Rams were upset in the Atlantic 10 Championship Game during a 1-point loss to Davidson. Conversely, Oklahoma is allowing a lofty 81.2 points per game this season. Any favorite (Rhode Island) averaging 74 to 78 points scored per game and is coming off a loss by 3 points or less, versus an opponent that’s allowing 78 points or more per game, resulted in those favorites going 68-26 ATS (72.3%) since 1997. This identical betting angle has gone 11-2 ATS (84.6%) this season. Bet on Rhode Island minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-14-18 | Arizona State v. Syracuse +1.5 | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Arizona State vs. Syracuse 9:10 PM ET Game# 611-612 Play On: Syracuse +1.5 (5*) These teams were the final 2 choices for at large bids by the NCAA Tournament committee and there was plenty of criticism as a result. Arizona State limps into the NCAA Tournament after losing 5 of its last 6 games. The Sun Devils last 4 defeats came against teams that aren’t participating in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Syracuse has lost 4 of their previous 6 games. However, the Orange are 12-3 straight up during the past 3 seasons after losing 4 or 5 of its previous 6 games. Arizona State has struggled against zone defenses this season. They’ll be facing arguably one of the best defensive zone teams in the country tonight. Syracuse has held their opponents this season to a paltry 39.6% shooting. Arizona State is 1-7 straight up during the past 2 seasons after game 14 of the season when facing teams with a 42% or less defensive field goal percentage. Besides their guard tandem of Frank Howard and Tyus battle, Syracuse is a very good rebounding team. Conversely, Arizona State has a dismal -8 rebound per game differential over their last 5 outings. Bet on Syracuse for a 5* wager. |
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03-14-18 | Nebraska v. Mississippi State -4 | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Nebraska @ Mississippi State 9:00 PM ET Game# 619-620 Play On: Mississippi State -4.0 (5*) Nebraska has won 15 of their last 20 games, finished 13-5 in the Big Ten regular season standings, yet was bypassed by the NCAA Tournament Committee. Then again, the Big Ten received just 3 bids which speaks to their overall lack of strength, and especially considering it’s a power conference. Mississippi State has gone an outstanding 18-2 at home this season. Their only 2 home defeats came at the hands of #13 Tennessee and #19 Auburn. The SEC was arguably the best power conference this season from top to bottom. Bet on Mississippi State minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-13-18 | St Bonaventure +3.5 v. UCLA | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
St. Bonaventure vs. UCLA 9:10 PM ET Game# 545-546 Play On: St. Bonaventure +3.5 (5*) Despite their 21-11 record, UCLA has been erratic at times. Some games they’ve looked like a superbly talented team. Then there’s been others when they struggled Central Arkansas, South Dakota, and CS-Bakersfield. This is a very underrated St. Bonaventure team that currently sports a 25-7 record. Only the questionable status of Courtney Stockard (hamstring) stops me from rating this as a top-rated pick. When Stockard in addition to senior guards Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley have all been available to play this season, St. Bonaventure is 22-4 which includes 4-2 versus 2018 NCAA Tournament teams. Bet on St. Bonaventure plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-13-18 | Florida Gulf Coast +11 v. Oklahoma State | 68-80 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Florida Gulf Coat @ Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Florida Gulf Coast +11.0 (5*) Florida Gulf Coast has shot a very impressive 49.7% from the field this season. They’re coming off an upset loss to Lipscomb in their previous game in which they allowed them to shoot an unconscionable 65% from the field. Any road team (FGCU) that’s shooting 48% or better from the field, and they allowed their opponent to shoot 60% or better in their previous game, resulted in those road teams going 56-23 straight up since 1997. Considering what this current point-spread is, it creates a plethora of betting value on the underdog in tonight’s matchup. Bet on Florida Gulf Coast plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-13-18 | Vermont +6 v. Middle Tennessee | 64-91 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Vermont @ Middle Tennessee State 8:00 PM ET Game# 551-552 Play On: Vermont +6.0 (5*) The Vermont Catamounts are 27-7. Their 7 losses have come by just a combined 28 points, and 6 of those defeats were by 4 points or less. Middle Tennessee State entered the final week of regular season action ranked in the Top 25. After losing their regular season finale and opening CUSA Tournament game they were snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee. The novice fan will say that will serve as additional motivation in the NIT. My professional experience has indicated to me that in most instances these types of teams are flat in their opening NIT Tournament game. Bet on Vermont plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-13-18 | Boston College v. Western Kentucky -5 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Boston College @ Western Kentucky 8:00 PM ET Game# 553-554 Play On: Western Kentucky -5.0 (5*) Boston College was a poor 2-9 straight up in true road games this season. Their only wins came at Hartford from the America East Conference, and against Pittsburgh who went 0-18 in ACC action. Meanwhile, this is a Western Kentucky team which beat #11 Purdue (28-6) earlier this season. It’s not often that a CUSA team gets to host an opponent from a power conference, and it will certainly add to Western Kentucky’s motivation in that regard. Bet on Western Kentucky minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-13-18 | Long Island v. Radford -4.5 | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
LIU vs. Radford 6:40 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Radford -4.5 (10*) A couple of #16 seeds will play for the right to be massacred by the East Region #1 seed Villanova. Nevertheless, barring line movement and a push, someone must cover this contest. Radford enters the “Big Dance” as winners of 7 straight games and with a stellar 22-12 season record. Meanwhile, LIU has won 5 in a row, but their uninspiring 18-16 record sis less than inspiring. Radford played the much tougher non-conference schedule than LIU encountered, and was very competitive on most of those occasions. Any NCAA Tournament favorite of 3.5 to 9.5-points, versus a #13 to #16 seed who’s coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those favorites going 44-16 ATS (7.3%) since 1997. The favorite held a +10.2 point per game differential during those 60 contests. Bet on Radford minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-10-18 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 144 | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
USC vs. Arizona 10:00 PM ET Game# 543-544 Play On: Under 144.0 (5*) USC has gone under the total in 9 straight games. During their pair of conference tournament wins, USC allowed held their opponents to 51.0 points per games and limited them to an absurd 31% shooting. Meanwhile, Arizona has gone under the total in 3 of its last 4 and 7 of their previous 9 games. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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03-10-18 | Stephen F Austin v. Southeastern Louisiana +6.5 | Top | 59-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
SE Louisiana vs. SF Austin 9:00 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: SE Louisiana +6.5 (10*) The underdog SE Louisiana enters today riding a sizzling hot 9-game winning streak. During its past 5 games, SE Louisiana has made 52.9% of its field goal attempts and shot an impressive 41.0% from 3-point territory. During that stretch, they held their opponents to just 39.6% shooting. There’s a wealth of value on the underdog in this contest. Bet on SE Louisiana plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-10-18 | North Carolina v. Virginia UNDER 125.5 | 63-71 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
North Carolina vs. Virginia 8:30 PM ET Game# 539-540 Play On: Under 125.5 (5*) North Carolina has seen each of their previous 4 games go under the total. The Tar Heels have been superb defensively in all 3 of their ACC Tourney wins by allowing 64.3 points per game and holding its opponents to a combined 36.4 shooting. Virginia has gone under the total in both conference tournament games, allowed a mere 58.0 points per contest, and their 2 opponents shot a combined 35.7%. Virginia has been unequivocally the best defensive team in the country this season while allowing a mere 53.1 points per game. These teams met once during the regular season, and Virginia walked off with a low scoring 61-49 home win. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager. |
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03-10-18 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +4.5 | 82-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
New Mexico vs. San Diego State 6:00 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: New Mexico +4.5 (5*) New Mexico has been red-hot offensively of late. The Lobos have scored 83 points or more and shot 49% or better in each of their previous 6 games. New Mexico is 6-1 straight up this season in conference games after scoring 80 points or more during each of their last 2 games. It’s rare to see an underdog in a conference tournament games that’s beaten their opponent in both regular season meetings. However, that’s the case with New Mexico who has knocked off San Diego State twice this season. Bet on New Mexico plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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03-10-18 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure +3.5 | 82-70 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
Davidson vs. St. Bonaventure 3:30 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: St. Bonaventure +3.5 (5*) St. Bonaventure enters today’s Atlantic 10 Conference Semifinal riding a 12-game win streak and is 25-6 overall. Despite their impressive overall record and finishing behind only Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 Conference standings, short of winning this postseason tournament they remain a bubble team. There certainly will be a sense of urgency today for the Bonnies. Senior backcourts during tournament games in March pay huge dividends. The Bonnies possess a dynamic tandem in Jaylen Adams and Curtis Mobley. Bet on St. Bonaventure plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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