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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State -2.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 16-24 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
Appalachian State @ UL-Lafayette 3:30 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Appalachian State -2.5 (10*) UL-Lafayette has won 11 straight games since their season opening loss at Texas. One of those 11 wins was a 41-13 home rout of Appalachian State. There was nothing lucky about that win as they outgained their bitter Sun Belt Conference rivals by a decided margin of 455-211. Yet here they are as a 3.0-point home underdog at the time of this writing. When it comes to sports betting, it’s rarely as easy as it may appear. This is a textbook example of such. Since that disappointing loss to UL-Lafayette, Appalachian State has won 6 straight games and covered 5 of those contests with an average victory margin of 25.7 points per game. The Mountaineers will not only be playing with same season revenge on Saturday, they’ll also be out to atone for a 24-21 home loss to UL-Lafayette in last season’s Sun Belt Championship Games. Bet on Appalachian State minus the points. |
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12-04-21 | Baylor +5.5 v. Oklahoma State | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State 12:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Baylor +5.5 (5*) Baylor enters this Big 12 Championship Game with an outstanding 10-2 record. One of those 2 losses came at Oklahoma State earlier this season. The Bears were held to a season low 14 points scored and 280 yards of total offense in that defeat but still only lost by 10. Oklahoma State is coming off arguably the most successful regular season in program history. They finished 11-1, defeated arch nemesis Oklahoma 37-33 in its previous game, and are lurking at #5 in the most recent college football rankings. Despite having a lot to still play for including a playoff berth and an opportunity to win a national championship, I firmly believe that they won’t be at their sharpest on Saturday. After all, they already defeated Baylor this season, and are coming off an intense and emotional game against their despised in state rival. Bet Baylor plus the points. |
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12-03-21 | Oregon +3 v. Utah | 10-38 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Utah vs. Oregon 8:00 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Oregon +3.0 (5*) Oregon is less than 2 weeks removed from being crushed at Utah 38-7. That defeat crushed their college football playoff aspirations. Nevertheless, it must be noted, that underdogs playing with revenge in the postseason have been a huge money-maker. Since 2008, those underdogs went 19-7 (73%) ATS and won 16 of those contests straight up. I like Oregon to bounce back tonight in a big way. Bet Oregon plus the points. |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +6 | 27-17 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Dallas @ New Orleans 8:20 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: New Orleans +6.0 (5*) The Dallas Cowboys are coming off 2 straight losses. The latest of which was a 36-33 home loss to Las Vegas on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys allowed Las Vegas to amass an alarmingly high 509 yards of total offense in that defeat. That’s far more than their average of 369.5 yards per game for the season. New Orleans defense has been solid this season while allowing a respectable 343.7 yards per game. Taysom Hill will start at quarterback tonight for the Saints. He’ll provide a needed emotional spark for a Saints offense that’s been underwhelming for a better part of this season. New Orleans looked horrible in their Thanksgiving night 31-6 loss to Buffalo. It was just the 7th time since Sean Payton has been the head coach of New Orleans that the Saints scored fewer than 10 points in a game. Nonetheless, the Saints followed those dismal offensive performances by going 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU in their next game. Those previously mentioned results include a 28-13 win at New England earlier this season that immediately followed a 26-7 loss to Carolina. Despite their home underdog ATS loss to Buffalo, since 2019, New Orleans has gone a very profitable 9-3 ATS as an underdog and even won 8 of those contests straight up. The current total in this contest is 47.0. The reason I bring that up is that since 2017, New Orleans is 14-0 SU at home whenever there was a total of 45.5 to 49.0. Any NFL home team (New Orleans) that’s playing after Game 8 of their season, and they’re facing an opponent that allowed 450 yards or more in their previous game, and both teams allow 335-370 yards per game on the season, resulted in those home teams going 34-6 SU (85%) since 1983. Since this NFL straight up betting angle supports the home underdog in this contest it takes on even more added significance. Bet New Orleans plus the points. |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Chicago @ New York 7:40 PM ET Game# 557-558 Play On: New York +2.0 (5*) The Knicks are 0-2 versus Chicago this season. However, both losses occurred on the road and came by only a combined 7 points. Furthermore, the Knicks are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home versus Chicago and won by an average of 11.0 points per game. The Knicks also find themselves as a small home underdog in this matchup. That’s worth noting since they’re 20-3 (87%) ATS since the start of last season at home whenever their point-spread was between +3.0 to -3.0. New York is coming off Tuesday’s 112-110 loss at Brooklyn. The Knicks are 4-0 SU in their last 4 following a loss in their previous game. Bet New York plus the small number. |
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12-01-21 | Cincinnati v. Miami-OH +3.5 | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Miami-Ohio 7:00 PM ET Game# 675-676 Play On: Miami-Ohio +3.5 (5*) Cincinnati will be facing an opponent today that has a super 17:10 assist to turnover ratio. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, the Bearcats have gone a dismal 2-8 SU versus opponents that average committing 12 turnovers or fewer per game. Cincinnati is coming off back-to-back SU&ATS losses and the last of which was a 61-59 home defeat versus Monmouth in a game they closed as a 10.5-point favorite. This is a better than advertised Miami-Ohio team which averages 85.3 points scored per game while shooting 48.3% this season and is an excellent free throw shooting club that converts at an excellent 75.6% clip. Miami returned all 5 starters from a season ago and it’s paid dividends during their 5-1 start and that includes a season opening upset win at Georgia Tech. The Red Hawks are 4-0 at home this season and have covered each contest easily as double digit favorite on each occasion. Bet Miami-Ohio plus the points. |
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11-30-21 | Duke v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Duke @ Ohio State 9:30 PM ET Game# 637-638 Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*) Duke is coming off a huge win over then #1 Gonzaga which catapulted them to the top spot in the latest AP Poll. Now thy find themselves as a short favorite on the road against an unranked Ohio State team that’s already suffered 2 losses this season. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the top ranked Duke Blue Devils. I am declining that invitation. Bet Ohio State plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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11-30-21 | Florida State v. Purdue -11 | 65-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Purdue 7:30 PM ET Game# 615-616 Play On: Purdue -11.0 (5*) This line jumped right off the page at me. It’s been a long while since I can recollect a Leonard Hamilton coached Florida State team being this sizable of an underdog. After careful examination, I can fully understand why. The only game Florida State played versus a ranked team this season they were soundly beaten by 16 at #14 Florida. Furthermore, the Seminoles escaped with a 1-point win over Boston University in their previous outing an in a game they closed as a 17.0-point home favorite. Purdue is the real deal. The Boilermakers are an experienced team that’s 6-0 to start the season, covered 5 of those 6 contests, and have shot 50% or better in all those contests. Their lone non-cover came in a 92-67 win over Indiana State as an enormous 26.0-point home favorite. Purdue has also made an outstanding 43.5% of their 3-point shots and 76.1% of its free throw attempts. Additionally, the Boilermakers have been dominant on the boards with an off the charts +17 rebound per game advantage. Bet Purdue minus the points. |
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11-29-21 | Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls | 119-133 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Charlotte +5.5 (5*) The Bulls are arguably the most improved team in the NBA based on early returns. However, they’ve been in a mini funk after going 1-3 SU&ATS in their last 4. Conversely, Charlotte is playing outstanding basketball of late which is evidenced by an 8-2 SU&ATS run in their previous 10 games. Throughout their previous 5 contests, Charlotte averaged 119.2 points scored per game, converted on an impressive 39.6% of their 3-points attempts, and had an excellent 27:11 assist to turnover ratio. Bet Charlotte plus the points. |
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11-28-21 | Rams v. Packers +2 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
Rams @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Green Bay +2.0 (5*) The Rams have looked listless in their last 2 games which resulted in SU favorite losses to Tennessee 28-16 and San Francisco 31-10. Green Bay is coming off last Sunday’s 34-31 loss at Minnesota. On a positive note, the Packers have gone 10-0 SU&ATS since 12/9/2018 following a loss and outscored their opponents by an average of 13.9 points per contest. Additionally, Green Bay has gone 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season and allowed 17 points or fewer on each occasion. Bet on Green Bay. |
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11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Tampa Bay -3.0 (5*) Indianapolis’ offense relies heavily on running back Jonathan Taylor who was magnificent in a 41-15 blowout win at Buffalo last Sunday. Specifically speaking, Taylor rushed for 185 yards and added another 30 receiving while scoring 5 touchdowns. Here in lies the problem for Indianapolis, they will be facing a Tampa Bay run defense which has been one of the league’s best over the past 3 season. This year alone, the Buccaneers defense has held opponents to 94 yards or less rushing in 7 of 10 games. Furthermore, the Colts are just 3-3 at home this season. Their 3 home wins came over the Jags, Jets, and Texans who have a combined record of 6-24 (.200) this season. Bet Tampa Bay minus the points. |
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11-28-21 | Panthers v. Dolphins +2.5 | 10-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Miami 1:00 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Miami +2.5 (5*) After losing 6 straight games, the Dolphins have rebounded nicely to go 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Their most recent win and cover came in a 24-17 road win over the Jets. The week before they pull off an upset as a 9.0-point home underdog by beating Baltimore 22-10. During this current win streak, Miami has allowed only 12.0 points and 318.7 yards per game while also forcing 7 turnovers. Conversely, Carolina has averaged just 292.7 yards of total offense and committed 5 turnovers throughout its previous 3 game. The Panthers started the season 3-0 and since then is a dismal 2-6 SU&ATS. Bet Miami plus the points. |
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11-28-21 | Steelers v. Bengals -3.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET Game # 263-264 Play On: Cincinnati -3.5 (5*) Don’t look now but Cincinnati has won the last 2 meetings between these AFC North Division rivals and that includes 24-10 at Pittsburgh earlier this season. The Bengals are coming off an impressive 32-13 win at Las Vegas. Pittsburgh has been uninspiring over their past 3 games while going 1-1-1. They barely escaped with a 29-27 home win over Chicago (4-7) despite being outgained 414-280. They also had an embarrassing 16-16 home time against a Detroit team that’s still winless after 11 games. Then last week their 4th quarter rally fell short in a 41-37 road loss to the Chargers. Somehow the scored was that close considering the Chargers outgained them by a considerable margin of 533-300. Bet Cincinnati minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -4 | 33-37 | Push | 0 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State 7:30 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: Oklahoma State -4.0 (10*) Oklahoma State has gone winless in their last 6 versus Oklahoma and failed to cover on 5 of those occasions. Yet, the sportsbooks are unfazed by those head-to-head results with Oklahoma State opening as a 3.5-point favorite in this contest. Their defense has been sensational this season and a major reason for their 10-1 record in addition to being ranked #7 by the college football playoff committee. The Cowboys are allowing 14.9 points and 251.6 yards per game this season. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 while outscoring their opponents by a cumulative score of 165-23 and allowed a mere 137.8 yards per game. Comparatively, Oklahoma has permitted opponents to average 432.0 yards of total offense per game over its last 7 contests. Bet Oklahoma State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh -12.5 v. Syracuse | 31-14 | Win | 105 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ET Game# 157-158 Play On: Pittsburgh -12.5 (5*) Syracuse has run the ball on 63.3% of their offensive plays this season. Furthermore, 61.1% of their offense yards gained have come via their running game. Those numbers are even more lopsided over their last 3 games where 69.1% of their offensive plays were runs and 77.2% of their yards gained came via their rushing attacks. Syracuse has passed for 66 yards or fewer in each of those previous 3 games. Those types of offensive splits resemble that of a service academy. That will be problematic when facing a Pittsburgh team that’s #7 nationally in stopping the run while allowing only 98.8 yards per game. On the other hand, the Panthers offense has averaged 44.0 points scored and 528.7 yards gained per game throughout its last 3 contests. The Pitt offense led by star senior quarterback Kenny Pickett will be facing a Syracuse defense which has failed to force a turnover in 5 straight games. Bet Pittsburgh minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon -6.5 | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
Oregon State @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Oregon -6.5 (5*) Oregon will be in a sour mood after last Saturday’s embarrassing 38-7 loss at Utah which knocked them out of the college football playoff picture. Now they take on in state rival Oregon state that’s enjoying an inspiring 7-4 season to this point. However, the Beavers are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road which included being upset by California 4-6 and Colorado 4-8. Oregon will also be playing with revenge after being upset 41-38 by their bitter rival last season in a game they closed as a 13.0-point road favorite. Oregon is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. Bet Oregon minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Penn State -3 v. Michigan State | 27-30 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: Penn State -3.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me. Penn State started the season 5-0 and since that time has gone 2-4. The Nittany Lions are unranked, yet they find themselves as a small favorite versus a 9-2 Michigan State team that’s ranked #12 in the most recent college football playoff rankings. The Spartans were also shellacked last Saturday 56-7 at Ohio State. The Michigan State defense has been shaky all season and over their last 4 games that’s become painfully apparent to Michigan State backers. During that stretch the Spartans allowed 37.5 points and 563.0 yards per game. The other puzzling part of this current point-spread is the fact that Michigan State is a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season while outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points per game. Penn State is just 2-2 SU on the road, but they covered 3 of those contests. Additionally, their only 2 road losses came at #7 Iowa (10-2) by 3 and #2 Ohio State by 9. The Nittany Lions also own a road win over #18 Wisconsin. They’re begging you to take the home underdog. I am not taking the bait. Bet Penn State minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -9.5 | 34-56 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Charlotte @ Old Dominion 2:00 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: Old Dominion -9.5 (5*) These teams have identical 5-6 records, but Old Dominion has clearly bee the better team in this latter part of regular season action. Charlotte started the year 4-2 but since then has gone 1-4 SU&ATS. Conversely, Old Dominion started the season 1-5 and has gone 4-0 SU&ATS since. All 5 losses sustained by ODU all came against teams that currently have a winning record. Throughout their previous 3 games, Charlotte allowed an average of 38.3 points and 520 yards per game. On the other hand, the ODU offense is playing its most productive football of the season during its last 3 contests while averaging 33.7 points scored and 451.0 yards gained per game. Bet on Old Dominion minus the points. |
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11-27-21 | Miami-OH v. Kent State +1.5 | 47-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Miami-Ohio @ Kent State 12:00 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: Kent State +1.5 (5*) Miami has won 4 of their last 5 games. Nonetheless, the fact remains that they are a dismal 1-5 SU on the road. Kent State is 4-0 SU and 3-1 at home and outscored their opponents by an average of 18.0 points per game. Furthermore, the Golden Flashes are average 46.0 points scored and 602.3 yards gained per game at home. Kent State is coming off a 38-0 win at Akron in their previous game. That win improved their season record to 6-5. Any college football team that’s coming off a conference road win by 35 points or more, and they possess a winning record, resulted in those home teams going 48-8 SU (85.7%) since 2017. Considering what the point-spread is in this contest, this college football straight up betting angle takes on added significance. Bet on Kent State. |
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11-26-21 | Missouri v. Arkansas -14.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
Missouri @ Arkansas 3:30 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Arkansas -14.5 (5*) Missouri has won its last 2 to improve their season record to 6-5 and become bowl eligible. However, their last 5 wins have all come against teams that currently have a losing record. Missouri is 3-4 in SEC action and allowed 36.3 points and 446.9 yards per game. Conversely, Arkansas is 5-1 at home this season where they average 37.0 points scored and 472.3 yards gained per game. The Razorbacks are coming off a narrow 42-35 loss at #3 Alabama last Saturday. They were able to amass 468 yards against an Alabama defense that’s far better than the one it will face in this matchup. Bet Arkansas minus the points. |
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11-26-21 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
Kansas State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Texas -3.0 (5*) I always profess to think like a oddsmaker and that will provide you with an edge that most don’t comprehend. This matchup has a Texas team which gone 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 as a small favorite against an opponent in Kansas State who enters their regular season finale with a respectable 7-4 record. It’s rarely that easy in sports betting when things seem so obvious. Besides, Texas has defeated Kansas State in each of the past 4 seasons. Bet Texas minus the points. |
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11-25-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
Buffalo @ New Orleans 8:20 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*) Buffalo will look to rebound from a humiliating and humbling 41-15 home blowout loss to the Colts. However, the Bills have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and win by a decisive margin of 26.0 points per game. So before you start digging a grave for the Bills you should definitely reconsider. Since 2019, Buffalo has gone 15-6 SU and 14-6-1 ATS during regular season away games under current head coach Sean McDermott. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite of 7.0 or less and after Game 6 of the season with an average victory margin of 25.0 points per game. New Orleans has been a profitable home underdog under head coach Sean Payton. But most of those occurrences happened with future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees under center and not this year’s backup Trevor Simien. The Saints may also be without star running back Alvin Kamara who is recovering from a knee injury. Bet Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-24-21 | Heat v. Wolves +1 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Miami @ Minnesota 8:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Minnesota +1.0 (5*) Miami will be playing with no rest following last night’s 100-92 win at Detroit. The Heat will be facing a red-hot Minnesota team that’s gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and won by a massive margin of 23.0 points per game. The Timberwolves have allowed less than 100 points in each of its previous 5 and held those opponents to a mere 38.6% shooting including 23.0% from 3-point land. Bet on Minnesota. |
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11-24-21 | Lakers v. Pacers -5 | 124-116 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
LA Lakers @ Indiana 7:10 PM ET Game# 509-510 Play On: Indiana -5.0 (5*) The Lakers are coming off last night’s 106-100 loss at Madison Square Garden. Los Angeles has now lost 4 of its last 5 games while playing some matador style defense along the way. The Lakers will be facing a Pacers team that’s 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home and won by an average of 12.0 points per game. Indiana is coming off back-to-back blowout wins of 111-4 over New Orleans and 109-77 at Chicago. Indiana has allowed 97 points or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games. Bet Indiana minus the points. |
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11-23-21 | Washington v. South Dakota State -6 | Top | 87-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Washington vs. South Dakota State 9:30 PM ET Game# 613-614 Play On: South Dakota State -6.0 (10*) This line opened at 7.5 and is now down to 6.0. I’m of the opinion that public and not sharp money was the cause of the line move. After all, we have a poer conference team as an underdog versus an opponent from the Summit. Washington is coming off yesterday’s 77-74 upset win over George Mason in a game thy closed as a 4.5-point underdog. It was by far the Huskies best offensive performance of the year while shooting 48% and considering they shot 40% or worse in each of their first 4 contests. Washington is 3-2 and suffered resume killing home losses to Northern Illinois as a 20.0-point favorite and Wyoming. South Dakota State is a terrific mid-major team. I was on them yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite when they blew out Nevada 102-75. The Jackrabbits are 5-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS in lined games. They’ve been superb offensively to start the season which is evidenced by them averaging 90.7 points scored per game while shooting an impressive 51.4% and a spectacular 44.1% from 3-point territory. The Jackrabbits only defeat came at #10 Alabama 104-88. Despite that loss, they still shot a stellar 48.6%. This is considered a neutral site game despite being played Sioux Falls, South Dakota as part of the Crossover Classic Tournament. Bet South Dakota State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-22-21 | TCU v. Santa Clara +3.5 | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Santa Clara vs. TCU 10:30 PM ET Game# 805-806 Play On: Santa Clara +3.5 (5*) Both teams are undefeated with Santa Clara 4-0 and TCU 3-0. Nonetheless, Santa Clara is the better money makes at 3-0-1 ATS versus 1-2 ATS for TCU. As a matter of fact, Santa Clara has covered their last 3 while winning by an average of 22.7 points per game. Santa Clara has some eye-opening wins by 16 over Stanford and 22 over Nevada. Santa Clara has an excellent 20/10 assist to turnover margin thus far while TCU is an uninspiring 15/16. Since the start of last season, TCU is a dismal 3-11 ATS versus teams that average 14 turnovers or fewer per contest and they were outscored by an average of 10.2 points per game. Bet Santa Clara plus the points. |
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11-22-21 | Nevada v. South Dakota State -2.5 | 75-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Nevada vs. South Dakota State Game# 777-778 Play On: South Dakota State -2.5 (5*) South Dakota State is 4-1 and all their wins have come by 12 points or more. The Jackrabbits only loss came at #14 Alabama 104-88. This is an explosive offensive team from South Dakota State that averages 88.4 points scored per game, shoots 50.2% from the field, and that includes an extremely impressive 42.2% from 3-point land. Conversely, Nevada has allowed 80.0 points per game and their opponents have shot 47.5% from the field. Bet South Dakota State minus the points. |
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11-22-21 | Hofstra +9.5 v. Richmond | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Hofstra @ Richmond 7:00 ET Game# 779-780 Play On: Hofstra +9.5 (5*) Hofstra is 1-3 to start the season but covered 3 of those 4 contests. They turned in strong performances in losses by 2 at #20 Maryland and by 8 in overtime at #15 Houston. Richmond is off to a disappointing 2-2 start and is coming off a 73-70 loss at Drake. Bet Hofstra plus the points. |
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11-21-21 | Steelers +5.5 v. Chargers | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ LA Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Pittsburgh +5.5 (5*) This is a huge game for both teams not only in their division but also regarding the AFC Playoff picture going forward. As good as Justin Herbert has been from the start of his young career which started last season, he hasn’t played in any big games in the 2nd half of regular season action. The Chargers don’t exactly come into this week with a ton of momentum after losing 3 of their last 4 games and that includes 0-2 at home. Furthermore, since 2019, the Chargers are 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of between 4.0 and 7.5,. They were outscored in those contests by an average of 5.8 points per game. Since 2019, Pittsburgh has gone 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 and their average point-spread per contest was +5.8. In that exact situation, the Steelers were a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS if facing an opponent with a win percentage of .625 or less. Conversely, since 2019, the 5-4 (.555) Chargers are just 6-9 ATS (40%) as a home favorite and were also only 7-8 straight up as well. Bet Pittsburgh plus the points. |
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11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders +1 | Top | 32-13 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Las Vegas +1.0 (10*) Las Vegas is coming off a disheartening 41-13 home underdog loss to Kansas City. That loss dropped their season record to 5-4. They will be facing a Cincinnati team that’s coming off 2 straight losses in which they allowed 37.5 points and 436.0 yards per game. I looked for the Raiders to bounce back in a big way off such a disappointing effort displayed last Sunday. Since 1984, any home team with a point-spread of -2.5 to +5.0 that’s coming off a home underdog ATS loss, and they have a winning record, and they’re facing a non-division opponent, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average home team point-spread was +1.2 and they won by 9.7 points per game. Bet Las Vegas for my NFL Game of the Month. |
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11-21-21 | Lions v. Browns -12 | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Detroit @ Cleveland 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Cleveland -12.0 (5*) Cleveland is coming off a humiliating 45-7 road loss at New England. That loss dropped their season mark to 5-5. If they hope to stay in the AFC North Division race or even contend for a wildcard spot they can ill afford to lose against a winless Detroit team. Specifically speaking, Detroit is 0-8-1 this season following last Sunday’s 16-16 tie at Pittsburgh. T make matters worse for Detroit, starting quarterback Jared Goff is listed as doubtful. Any NFL regular season home favorite of between 10.0 and 13.0-points that playing after game 8 and is coming off a loss by 5 points or more, versus an opponent who’s not coming off a win, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The home teams won those 12 contests by a substantial average of 21.6 points per game. They also held those 12 visting teams to a scant 9.4 points per game. Bet Cleveland minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Texas-Arlington v. San Diego State -19.5 | 62-68 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Texas-Arlington @ San Diego State 10:00 PM ET Game# 651-652 Play On: San Diego State -19.5 (5*) Texas-Arlington has gone 0-3 SU&ATS versus Division 1 opponents and lost by a massive 26.7 points per game. During those defeats they averaged a mere 50.3 points scored and committed 23.7 turnovers per game. San Diego State is 2-1 but has played a much tougher slate than Arlington. The Aztecs last 2 games as a 6-point loss at BYU and 2-point home win versus Arizona State. The Aztecs once again lives up to their annual tradition of being a stout defensive team. They’re allowing just 60.7 points per game and holding opponents to 38.3% shooting which includes 23.5% from 3-point territory. Bet San Diego State minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Utah 7:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: Utah -3.0 (10*) The #3 Oregon Ducks find themselves as an underdog against #24 Utah and I believe for good reason. After starting 1-2, Utah has won 6 of its last 7. The Utes are also a perfect 4-0 at home where they’ve outscored their opponents by 17.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’re 17-1 in their last 18 played in Salt Lake City. The Utes offense has been red-hot while scoring 34 points or more in each of their last 6 games. During that stretch, the Utes have only committed 3 turnovers and gained 455 yards or more in each of those contests. The Oregon offense took a huge hit when star running back C.J. Verdell went down for the season. That will catch up to them in this spot while playing in a hostile environment. Bet Utah minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Baylor v. Kansas State | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
Baylor @ Kansas State 5:30 PM ET Game# 413-414 Play On: Kansas State (5*) Baylor is coming off a game in which they knocked off undefeated Oklahoma by a score of 17-7. The Bears were sky high in that contest in front of a raucous home crowd. There’s no way humanly possible that the #11 ranked Bears will be able to match that physical or mental intensity when going on the road versus an unranked opponent. However, it must be note, Kansas State is 7-3 and winners of 4 straight game. Bet on Kansas State. |
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11-20-21 | Nebraska +10 v. Wisconsin | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Nebraska @ Wisconsin 3:30 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Nebraska +10.0 (5*) This is another game where the line doesn’t make sense, and yes, I’m once again taking a contrarian approach. Since starting the season 1-3, Wisconsin has gone a red-hot 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. The latest college football poll has them ranked at #15. Yet, they find themselves as a reasonably sized favorite when considering their opponent is 3-7 and losers of 4 in a row. Nonetheless, you can make a strong case that Nebraska is the best team in the country with a losing record. For example, during their present 4-game losing streak they faced #6 Michigan (9-1), #4 Ohio State (9-1), Purdue (6-4) and Minnesota (6-4). Even with that tough stretch of games versus quality opponents they were only outscored by 6.0 points per contest. As a matter of fact, all 7 of the Cornhuskers losses were 1 possession games. Additionally, head coach Scott Frost received a vote of confidence to return next year. That should also relieve stress for the coaching staff and players alike. Bet Nebraska plus the points. |
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11-20-21 | SMU v. Cincinnati -10 | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
SMU @ Cincinnati 3:30 PM ET Game# 327-328 Play On: Cincinnati -10.0 (5*) Despite being 10-0 and posting a quality win at #7 Notre Dame, if the season were to end today, Cincinnati would be on the outside looking in. The biggest criticism of the Bearcats has been their inability to dominate seemingly weaker teams in their own conference. Well, they’ll have a chance to impress the college football committee on Saturday against an 8-2 SMU team. I believe they’ll be more than up to the task. The Bearcats are 5-0 at home while outscoring opponents by 32.4 points and outgaining them by 168.8 yards per contest. The major weakness for SMU is their defense and that’s especially been the case when facing better than average opponents. The Bearcats unequivocally qualify in that regard. Bet Cincinnati minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -18 | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Ohio State 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: Ohio State -18.0 (5*) We have the #4 team in the country as nearly a 3-touchdown favorite against #7 Michigan State. I am sure this substantial number will produce a lot more tickets and money bet on the underdog. But I’m here to tell you they are wrong. This isn’t a recoding but think like an oddsmaker if you want to be a successful sports bettor. Why is Ohio State such a large favorite against an opponent who is just 3 spots below them in the latest college football playoff rankings? Simply put, because those sharp and astute professionals see Michigan State the same way I do, and that’s an absolute fraud. Regardless of their superb 9-1 record, Michigan State is terrible defensively, and they will be facing a red-hot Ohio State offense that’s #1 nationally in scoring and yards gained. Conversely, Michigan State is #111 in total defense having given up 444.0 yards per game this season. Don’t get suckered into taking the sizable underdog. Lay the points with Ohio State. |
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11-20-21 | Wake Forest v. Clemson -4 | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
Wake Forest @ Clemson 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Clemson -4.0 (5*) This is another one of those college football betting situations that I love taking a contrarian approach. Wake Forest is 9-1 and ranked #10 in the latest college football poll yet they fin themselves as more than a field goal underdog against an unranked team. The biggest enigma for Wake Forest is their defense. The Demon Deacons has allowed 34 or more points and 500 yards or greater in 5 of its last 6 games. Clemson is enduring an uncharacteristic season in which they never seriously threatened being a national title contender. However, they have won 3 in a row to improve their season record to 7-3. The Tigers defense has been stellar all season. The Tigers are also a perfect 5-0 at home this season and allowed a mere 10.2 points and 248.2 yards per game. They will be up to the task against Wake’s explosive offense. The Tigers offense has struggle for most of this season. On a positive note, Clemson has scored 34.7 points per contest during their current win streak. Bet Clemson minus the points. |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Oklahoma | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Oklahoma 12:00 PM ET Game# 401-402 Play On: Iowa State +3.5 (5*) Oklahoma is coming off their first loss of the season last week at Baylor. The Sooners have a huge in-state rivalry game up next versus 9-1 Oklahoma State. This sets up as a flat spot for Oklahoma. Iowa State is coming off a 41-38 upset loss to Texas Tech last week. That dropped their season record to 6-4. The Cyclones have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by a massive margin of 43.3 points per game. Iowa State will also be out to revenge their 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in last season’s Big 12 Championship game. Bet Iowa State plus the points. |
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11-19-21 | Wichita State v. Arizona -9 | 78-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Arizona vs. Wichita State 10:00 PM ET Game# 887-888 Play On: Arizona -9.0 (5*) Although these teams enter this Roman main Event Tournament in Las Vegas with identical 3-0 records, my personal eye test tells me that Arizona is much the better side in this matchup. Wichita State has failed to cover in 2 of their first 3. They escaped with narrow wins at home versus Jacksonville State by 3 and South Alabama by 6. The Shockers have struggled so offensively while averaging just 63.0 points scored per game and shot a poor 39.1% while doing so. Arizona is 3-0 SU&ATS thus far with an average victory margin of 45.0 points per game. They held those 3 opponent to just 49.0 points scored per game and an extremely impressive 27.6% shooting. Furthermore, the Wildcats averaged 94.0 points scored per game while shooting 50.3%, and 39.5% from beyond the 3-point line. Even with that great shooting, Arizona still managed to average an impressive 13 offensive rebounds per contest. Bet Arizona minus the points. |
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11-19-21 | Pacers +1.5 v. Hornets | 118-121 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Charlotte 7:10 PM ET Game# 513-514 Play On: Indiana +1.5 (5*) This line makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. We have an Indiana team that’s just 2-8 on the road this season and is coming off back-to-back road losses in which they scored 89 and 84 points. The Pacers will be facing a Charlotte team which has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 while holding those opponents to a mere 98.3 points per game. Yet, the oddsmakers put forth a point-spread that indicates they see this as an evenly matched game. This is where I revert to my contrarian approach. The sportsbooks are begging you take Charlotte, so I’m betting on Indiana. |
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11-19-21 | Ohio +12 v. Kentucky | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Ohio @ Kentucky 7:00 PM ET Game# 827-838 Play On: Ohio +12.0 (10*) Kentucky is unequivocally the more talented in athletic team in this matchup. However, Ohio is an experienced and battle tested team. The Bobcats are the defending MAC Tournament champions and upset Virginia in the 1st Round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament as a #13 seed. Ohio has begun this season by going 3-0 SU&ATS. The Bobcats are averaging 12 three-point makes per game while converting on a solid 38.3% of those long-distance attempts. Look for that ability to knock down 3-point shots as a key contributing factor to us covering this game. Â Bet Ohio plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-18-21 | Rutgers v. DePaul +3.5 | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rutgers @ DePaul 8:30 PM ET Game# 731-732 Play On: DePaul +3.5 (5*) Rutgers is 3-0 but failed to cover in any of those contests versus Merrimack, NJIT, and Lehigh. Not exactly the blue bloods of college basketball. Conversely has started the season 2-0 SU&ATS with win over Coppin State and Central Michigan. However, they won those contests by an average of 29.0 points per game and they scored 98.0 points per contest. Additionally, DePaul dominated the boards in those 2 wins at +24.0 per game. Bet DePaul plus the points. |
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11-18-21 | Northern Illinois +14.5 v. Missouri | 37-54 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois @ Missouri 8:00 PM ET Game# 725-726 Play On: Northern Illinois +14.5 (5*) Missouri is coming off an 80-66 home loss to UMKC in a game they closed as an 11.0-point favorite. Northern Illinois opened the season with a shocking 71-64 win at Washington and as a 20.0-point underdog. They were handed a dose of reality in their last game at Indiana which resulted in an 80-46 loss. Despite that defeat, Northern Illinois made an impressive 41.2% of their 3-point shot attempts and averaged 26 free throw attempts per game. The great equalizers for college basketball underdogs is their ability to shoot well from 3-point lead and getting to the free throw line in abundance. Bet Northern Illinois plus the points. |
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11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3 | 78-72 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Ole Miss vs. Marquette 7:00 PM ET Game# 759-760 Play On: Ole Miss -3.0 (5*) This game is part of the Charleston Classic and more importantly on a neutral floor. Ole Miss has opened the season with home wins over Charleston Southern 93-61 and New Orleans 82-61. On the other hand, Marquette’s last 2 games resulted in home wins over Illinois 67-66 and New Hampshire 75-70. Ole Miss is the more experienced and better team in this matchup. Any favorite coming off 2 home win that each came by 10 points or more, versus an opponent coming off 2 home wins by 5 points or fewer, resulted in those favorites going 44-12 ATS (78.6%) since 1997. Bet Ole Miss minus the points. |
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11-17-21 | Kings +2 v. Wolves | 97-107 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ Minnesota 8:10 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Sacramento +2.0 (5*) Minnesota has lost 9 of their last 11 and that includes 6 consecutive home defeats. The Timberwolves have scored less than 100 points in 6 of their 13 games this season which makes it awfully tough to win. Sacramento has gone a respectable 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS in road games this season. As a matter of fact, the Kings are coming off Monday’s 129-107 blowout win at Detroit. Bet Sacramento plus the small number. |
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11-17-21 | Wizards +1 v. Hornets | 87-97 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Washington @ Charlotte 7:10 PM ET Game# 559-560 Play On: Washington +1.0 (5*) Charlotte is coming off home underdog straight up wins in their last 2 games against Golden State and New York. Those victories improved their season record to 8-7 (.533). Washington enters today on a 5-game win streak with an average victory margin of 10.2 points per game. The Wizards allowed 100 points or fewer in all 5 of those win while holding those opponents to 38.7% shooting. Any NBA road team that’s facing an opponent coming off home underdog SU wins in each of their previous 2 games played, resulted in those road teams going 23-3 SU (88.5%) since 1996. Bet on Washington. |
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11-17-21 | Toledo v. Oakland -2 | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Oakland 7:00 PM ET Game# 667-668 Play On: Oakland -2.0 (5*) Toledo has started the season with a pair of 8-point wins over Valparaiso and Detroit. Although Oakland is 1-1, they have a more impressive resume. They played each of their first 2 games on the road and performed remarkably well with all considered. They opened the season with a 7-point loss at West Virginia but easily covered as a 17.5-point underdog. It was one of the rare occasions in the Bob Huggins era that West Virginia was outrebounded, and in this case by a considerable margin of 48-33. They followed that up with a huge upset 56-55 win at Oklahoma State and did so as a sizable 17.5-point underdog. Oakland didn’t shoot the ball well in either game but made up for it with a combined 26 offensive rebounds which created numerous multiple possession opportunities. Oakland will also be playing with big time revenge after losing by 27 to Toledo last season. Bet Oakland over Toledo. |
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11-16-21 | BYU +4.5 v. Oregon | 81-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
BYU @ Oregon 10:00 PM ET Game# 647-648 Play On: BYU +4.5 (5*) #12 Oregon is only a 4.0-point home favorite against BYU? That means, if the game was being played at BYU, then the unranked Cougars would be a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite. Like I’ve said time and time again, I unequivocally trust the oddsmakers extensively more than those voting in national polls. The sportsbooks are begging you to bet the home favorite in this one. Well, I’m not taking the bait. Bet BYU plus the points. |
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11-16-21 | Toledo v. Ohio +7 | 35-23 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Ohio 7:00 ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Ohio +7.0 (5*) Toledo is coming off a 49-17 win over arguably the MAC’s worst team Bowling Green. The Rockets have been the model of inconsistency this season evidenced by a 1-3 record following a win. Their only win in that sequence came over a 1-9 Massachusetts team whose lone victory came over Connecticut team that’s gone 0-7 versus FBS teams. Toledo has gone over the total in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2019, the Rockets are 0-6 ATS following 2 consecutive games going over the total and were outscored by an average of 13.5 points per contest. Ohio started the season 0-4 SU&ATS and the cumulative score was 141-55. However, we must keep in mind that long time head coach Frank Solich abruptly decided to retire just before summer camp which caused some instability heading into the season. Since that time, Ohio is 5-1 ATS and 3-3 SU with all coming versus MAC opponents. As a matter of fact, their 3 conference losses have come by a combined 11 points. The Bobcats are coming off 2 consecutive SU wins as an underdog over Eastern Michigan and Miami-Ohio. They rushed for 178.3 yards per game during those 2 victories in addition to averaging a robust 8.8 yards per passing attempt. Bet Ohio plus the points. |
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11-16-21 | Hofstra +6.5 v. Iona | 74-82 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Hofstra @ Iona 7:00 ET Game# 615-616 Play On: Hofstra +6.5 (5*) Iona has opened the season with 2 home wins which have come over Appalachian State and Harvard. In their 90-87 win over Harvard, Iona allowed the visitors to shoot an alarmingly high 52.8% but were bailed out by 24 turnovers committed by the Crimson. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Iona is a dismal 1-6 SU following 2 consecutive home games. Hofstra shot a blistering 58% in their previous game which resulted in a 73-63 win at Duquesne. That win improved their season record to 1-1. Hofstra’s loss came at Houston by 8 in overtime and they easily covered that game as an 18.5-point underdog against a Final Four team from a season ago. Furthermore, since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Hofstra has gone an extremely profitable 19-6 ATS (76%) following a SU win. Bet Hofstra plus the points. |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Las Vegas 8:20 PM ET Game# 263-264 Play On: Las Vegas +2.5 (5*) The Chiefs have failed to cover in each of their previous 3 and are 2-7 ATS for the season. The Kansas City high powered offense has been stymied over their previous 3 contests while averaging just 12.0 points scored and 313.0 yards gained per game. The Chiefs are coming off an uninspiring 13-7 home win over Green Bay who was without Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs amassed only 237 yards offense in that loss. The Chiefs have been consistently good when it comes to turnover margin since Andy Reid took over as head coach. That’s not been the case this season as the Chiefs have a turnover margin of -9. The Raiders are coming off a disappointing 23-16 road loss to the Giants last Sunday. The Raiders shot themselves in the foot by committing 3 turnovers. However, their defense surrendered only 245 yards. This will be their first meeting versus Kansas City this season. Las Vegas went 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS versus Kansas City last season and scored 31 and 40 points in those contests. Bet the Raiders plus the points. |
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11-14-21 | Vikings +3 v. Chargers | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ LA Chargers 4:05 PM ET Game# 255-256 Play On: Minnesota +3.0 (5*) The Chargers enter this week 5-3 with 2 of those losses coming at home. Los Angeles is coming off a 27-24 win at Philadelphia last week in a game they accumulated 445 yards of total offense. Unfortunately for Chargers backers, since 2019, their team has gone an abysmal 2-12 SU and 2-11-1 ATS following a contest in which they had 400 yards or more of total offense. The Vikings are coming off a gut-wrenching 34-31 overtime loss at Baltimore in a game they blew a 14-point 2nd half lead. However, they did cover rather easily as a 7.0-point underdog. On a positive note, since Mike Zimmer has taken over as head coach, Minnesota has gone a terrific 25-4 ATS 986.2%) during their last 29 when coming off a loss. You can make a strong argument that Minnesota is the best NFL team without a winning record. After all, they’re 3-5 with all their losses coming by 7 points or fewer and an average of 3.6 points per defeat. I’m looking for Minnesota running backs to have a productive day against a Charges defense ranking dead last in the NFL at stopping the run (161.6 YPG). That’s only going to make their play action passing game to be that more successful. Bet Minnesota plus the points. |
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11-14-21 | Panthers v. Cardinals -10 | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Arizona 4:05 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Arizona -10.0 (5*) The Panthers have lost 5 of their last 6. During their previous 3 games the Chargers dreadful has been dreadful while averaging 9.3 points scored and 248.3 yards gained per game. The situation doen’t look any rosier this week with backup quarterback P.J. Walker getting the start. Not to mention they will be facing an Arizona defense which has allowed just 17.2 points and 321.0 yards per game this season. The Arizona didn’t miss a beat last week with Colt McCoy filling in for injured starter Kyler Murray at quarterback McCoy led Arizona to a 31-17 win at San Francisco. McCoy was an outstanding 23-27 for 274 yards passing without an interception. The Cardinals ran the ball for 163 yards as well. Arizona enters this week with a stellar 8-1 record and 6 of their wins have come by 12 points or more. Bet Arizona minus the points. |
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11-13-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -3 | 21-23 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
Nevada @ San Diego 10:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: San Diego State -3.0 (5*) When it comes purely to my eye test, I believe Nevada is the better team in this matchup. However, when talking about a betting situation, I firmly believe the #22 San Diego State Aztecs (8-1) are the right side on Saturday. Additionally, there’s been a huge line move on this contest and for no apparent reason other than extremely sharp money being wagered on San Diego State. It’s never a bad idea to follow a sharp money move of this magnitude. Bet San Diego State minus the points. |
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11-13-21 | NC State +2 v. Wake Forest | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
NC State @ Wake Forest 7:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: NC State +2.0 (5*) Wake Forest is coming off a gut wrenching 58-55 loss at North Carolina last week in a game they led by 14 heading into the 4th quarter. That resulted in the Demon Deacons first loss of the season and put to rest any possible way of reaching the college football playoffs. I will go out on a limb and say the emotional toll taken from that defeat will carry over to this week. Couple that with them facing #16 NC State (7-2) and it doesn’t present a favorable betting situation for the small home favorite. The Wake Forest offense is undeniably an explosive group. Nonetheless, this will be unequivocally the best defense they’ve faced all season. The Wolfpack stop unit has allowed 14 points or fewer in 5 of their 9 games. Bet on NC State plus the small number. |
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +2.5 | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M 7:00 PM ET Game# 195-196 Play On: Ole Miss +2.5 (5*) Both teams enter this contest nationally ranked and with identical 7-2 overall records. Nevertheless, home field advantage will be key to us covering this contest. Ole Miss has gone 5-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by an average of 21.0 points per game. During those home contests, Ole Miss has averaged 45.0 points and 575.6 yards per game. Ole Miss is an impressive +11 in turnover margin and has committed only 5 giveaways in 9 games played. The Rebels just don’t beat themselves. Bet Ole Miss plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | Purdue v. Ohio State -20.5 | Top | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
Purdue @ Ohio State 3:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Ohio State -20.5 (10*) Purdue is coming off last week’s shocking 40-29 upset win over then #3 Michigan State. The Boilermakers also pulled off a similar type upset earlier this season over then #2 and undefeated Iowa. Nevertheless. They enter this game against the #4 Buckeyes as a 3-touchdown underdog. Purdue has been solid defensively this season. However, they will have their hands full against a balanced Ohio State offense that is averaging 44.9 points and 541.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes will make a statement in this one against #19 Purdue and solidify their position within the top 4 college football playoff spots. Bet Ohio State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +5.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ Baylor 12:00 PM ET Game# 149-150 Play On: Baylor +5.5 (5*) The mighty Oklahoma Sooners are unbeaten at 9-0, yet the college football playoff committee has them ranked #8 going into this week, and with five 1 loss teams ranked ahead of them. They don’t think the Sooners are as good as their record indicates and neither do I. They will have their hands full at #13 Baylor (7-2) on Saturday. The Bears have gone a perfect 5-0 at home this season which includes quality wins over Iowa State, Texas, and BYU who were all ranked in the Top 25 for a large portion of this season before dropping out. Bet Baylor plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina +5.5 v. Memphis | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
East Carolina @ Memphis 12:00 ET Game# 173-174 Play On: East Carolina +5.5 (5*) I love this spot for the underdog Pirates. Memphis is coming off a huge 28-25 home win over SMU. I'm looking for this to be a flat spot for the Tigers. East Carolina is coming off a 45-3 blowout win over Temple. That’s the same Temple team that beat Memphis just a few weeks back. With that victory, East Carolina has gone a solid 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS over their previous 7 games. That’s the same South Carolina team that routed Florida 40-16 last Saturday. Bet East Carolina plus the points. |
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11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
Mississippi State @ Auburn 12:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: Mississippi State +5.5 (5*) Mississippi is a deceiving 5-4 this season when considering they suffered 3 of those losses by 3 points or fewer. With a little bit of lick the Bulldogs could very easily have been 8-1 at this point. Mississippi State has posted quality wins over #11 Texas A&M (7-2), # 16 NC State (7-2), and Kentucky (6-3). Mississippi State is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road this season while their defense held opponents to just 272.8 yards per game. Mississippi State has a yards per game differential of +120.3 this season while Auburn comes in at -43.2. That’s a huge +163.5-yard difference and especially when considering it favors the underdog. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points. |
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11-12-21 | Bulls +5.5 v. Warriors | 93-119 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Golden State 10:05 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Chicago +5.5 (5*) Golden State enters this contest riding high after going 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 with a dominating average victory margin of 19.0 points per game. However, the upstart Bulls are by no means a pushover. They’re 8-3 SU&ATS this season overall and 3-1 SU&ATS in road games. As a matter of fact, the Bulls are 8-1 SU&ATS this season against all teams not named Philadelphia. Bet Chicago plus the points. |
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11-12-21 | Hawks v. Nuggets -4 | 96-105 | Win | 102 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Denver 8:40 PM ET Game# 571-572 Play On: Denver -4.0 (5*) Atlanta enters this contest reeling after going 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 while being outscored by 11.4 points per game. The Hawks are a dismal 1-7 SU & 0-8 ATS on the road this season and has been outscored by an average of 10.1 points per game. Dating back to last season’s playoffs, the Hawks are an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS during their previous 7 games as a road underdog and lost by an average of 16.0 points per contest. That includes 0-5 SU&ATS this season (-12.2 PPG). Denver is on a current 3-game win streak and has been magnificent defensively at home. The Nuggets have allowed fewer than 100 points in all 6 of their home games this season. Specifically speaking, Denver allowed 93.0 points and just 80 field goal attempts at home this season. Bet Denver minus the points. |
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11-12-21 | Kings v. Thunder +5 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Sacramento @ Oklahoma City 8:10 PM ET Game# 567-568 Play On: Oklahoma City +5.0 (5*) After opening the season 1-6, Oklahoma City has rebounded to win 3 straight also covered 4 in a row. Throughout their previous 4 contests, Oklahoma City has allowed 99.3 points per game and held opponent to a mere 38.9% shooting. The Thunder has also gone 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU in their last 5 as an underdog of 11.0 or less. Bet on Oklahoma City plus the points. |
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11-11-21 | Sacred Heart +15.5 v. Providence | 64-92 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Sacred Heart @ Providence 6:30 PM ET Game# 1227-1228 Play On: Sacred Heart +15.5 (5*) Providence is coming off an uninspiring 80-73 win over Fairfield in their season opener. The Friars were a 14.5-point home favorite, and at no time were they ever covering this contest with their largest lead being 12 points. Providence had a parade to the free throw line evidenced by an enormous 36 attempts but made good on only 66.7% of those opportunities. The Friars were a dismal 4-22 from beyond the 3-point line. Under current head coach Ed Cooley and since 2019, Providence has gone a poor 4-14 ATS in non-conference game. Sacred Heart is coming off an 86-81 overtime win at Lasalle in their season and did so as a 7.5-point underdog. That was a huge confidence building win and especially considering they over a 5-point deficit with just 0:05 left in regulation time and were behind 52-38 with 10:49 left to play. Bet Sacred Hear plus the points. |
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11-10-21 | Raptors +2 v. Celtics | 88-104 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Toronto @ Boston 7:40 PM ET Game# 527-528 Play On: Toronto +2.0 (5*) This line jumped right off the page at me. After all, we have a Raptors team which is coming off home losses in their last 2 games played. On the other hand, Boston is coming off a 3-game road trip in which they went 2-1. The Celtics also enter tonight on 3 days of rest. Nonetheless, the Celtics are only a short favorite in this matchup. After further examination, there are early season trends for both teams that can’t be ignored when handicapping this game. Toronto has gone a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS on the road thus far and had a decisive victory margin of 13.3 points per game. One of those road wins came at Boston on 10/22 when the Raptors crushed Boston 115-83 and did so as a sizable 7.0-point underdog. Conversely, Boston is 0-3 SU&ATS at home this season and all 3 defeats came as a favorite. Bet Toronto plus the points. |
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11-10-21 | Wizards -3 v. Cavs | 97-94 | Push | 0 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Washington @ Cleveland 7:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Washington -3.0 (5*) Cleveland has been one the biggest early season surprises. They are off to a 7-4 start and that includes going 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with 3 of those wins coming by 3 points or fewer. Yet they find themselves as a home underdog. It’s just never that easy when it comes to NBA betting. I am taking the contrarian approach to this matchup and side with a road favorite who enters today with a more than respectable 7-3 record of their own. Bet Washington minus the small number. |
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11-10-21 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois +2.5 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Ball State @ Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: Northern Illinois +2.5 (5*) It’s never a bad thing when your head coach signs a contract extension a day before a game. That’s exactly what happened with Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock just yesterday. This certainly brings a sense of security and positivity to the coaching staff and players. By, the way, after going 0-6 last season in a pandemic shortened campaign, Northern Illinois enters this week leading the MAC West Division with a 4-1 record and is 6-3 overall. Besides their stellar conference record, Northern Illinois pulled off an upset win in their season opener at Georgia Tech and did so as a 19.0-point underdog. Ball State narrowly escaped with a 31-25 win at Akron and didn’t come close to covering as a 20.0-point favorite.  Bet Northern Illinois plus the small number. |
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11-09-21 | Bucks v. 76ers +5.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Milwaukee @ Philadelphia 7:35 PM ET Game# 517-518 Play On: Philadelphia +5.5 (5*) Milwaukee will once again be without star guard Khris Middleton and starting center Brook Lopez. The Bucks have gone a dismal 1-5 SU&ATS in their last 6 games. The 76ers will be without 4 players tonight due to COVID protocols and that includes star center Joel Embiid. Things didn’t work out well when being shorthanded last night as they suffered a home 103-96 loss to New York. That defeat ended a 6-game win streak. Despite that loss, Philadelphia is still an outstanding 69-12 in their last 81 regular season home games. That includes 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS when there’s a point-spread of 8.0 or less. The 76ers are also 6-0 SU in their last 6 at home when playing with nor rest and coming off a loss, and they outscored those opponents by 16.4 points per contest. Bet on Philadelphia plus the points. |
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11-09-21 | Kansas -4 v. Michigan State | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
Kansas vs. Michigan State 7:00 PM ET Game# 625-626 Play On: Kansas -4.0 (5*) Michigan State has gone 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS in their first 9 games of the season over the past 2 years when playing away from home. The Spartans are coming off a disappointing 15-13 season and went a bankroll depleting 8-20 ATS in those contests. That includes the Spartans going 1-6 SU&ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.0 or less. This is an experienced Kansas club that returns 4 starters from a team that went 21-9 last season and advanced to the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament.The preseason power ratings that I trust indicates should be a 7.5-point favorite on a neutral floor versus Michigan State. It’s very seldom there’s that much disparity between my power numbers compared to the actual point-spread unless a key injury or pertinent miscellaneous factors are failed to be accounted for. Neither comes in to play for this Tuesday night premium matchup at Madison Square Garden in New York. Bet Kansas minus the points. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers -7 | 27-29 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Bears @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Steelers -7.0 (5*) The Bears are pathetic on offense and that’s been a key contributing factor to them going 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. During that stretch, the Bears lost by an average of 18.7 points per game. Speaking of the Bears anemic offense, they are averaging 10.8 points scored and 233.0 yards gained per game throughout 4 road contests. Chicago is coming off last Sunday’s 33-22 home loss to San Francisco. Since 2019 and all under current head coach Matt Nagy, Chicago has gone 0-5 SU&ATS as a road underdog and following a loss in their previous game. Their average point-spread was +8.1 in those contests and they lost by a decisive margin of 15.6 points game. Many counted the Steelers out after their poor 1-3 start. However, they’ve rebounded to win their last 3. Their defense has been outstanding over their current win streak in allowing just 16.3 points and 329.7 yards per game. By the way, since 2018 and all under present head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 6-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or more following 2 or more wins in a row, and they won by a substantial margin of 19.8 points per game. Bet Pittsburgh minus the points. |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
Chargers @ Eagles 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Eagles +1.5 (10*) You may be surprised to know that the Chargers are dead last in the NFL at stopping the run. They rank #32 in rushing yards allowed per game (159.6) and #32 at rush yards allowed per attempt (5.1). Furthermore, over their last 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 186.0 yards rushing per game and that alone was a major contributing factor to them entering this week on a 2-game losing streak. Philadelphia should be able to the run the ball with a huge amount of success, not only because their opponent is inept stopping it, but because they’ve had some degree of success in doing so up until now. The Eagles are coming off a 44-6 blowout win over Detroit last week and amassed 236 rushing years. The Eagles enter this week #7 in offensive rushing yards per game (131.7) and #4 in yards per rushing attempts (5.0). Any NFL home team (Eagles) with a win percentage of .333 or better, coming off a road win by 23 points or more, versus an opponent (Chargers) coming off a home game where both teams scored 24 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 33-2 SU (94.2%) since 1983. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance when considering the current point-spread. Bet the Eagles for a Top Play wager. |
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11-07-21 | Vikings +6 v. Ravens | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Vikings +6.0 (5*) Minnesota has enough offensive juice to stay in this game throughout. Especially when considering, the Ravens defense has allowed 491 yards or more in 3 of its first 7 games. The Vikings look to rebound off a home favorite 20-16 loss to Dallas last Sunday. Conversely, Baltimore is coming off a 41-17 blowout loss to Cincinnati in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset but taking the generous points we’re being afforded is a winning ticket. Any NFL team (Vikings) playing after Game 5 of their season as a road underdog of 3.0 to 6.5 and is coming off a loss, versus an opponent (Ravens) coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those teams going 8-0 ATS and 7-1 SU since 2003. Bet the Vikings plus the points. |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +4 | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Panthers 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Panthers +4.0 (5*) The Patriots are coming last Sunday’s 27-24 road win over the Chargers which improved their season record to 4-4. Now they go on the road again but opposed to last week they find themselves as a favorite and not underdog. Much ado will be made in NFL betting circles about the availability of Carolina starting quarterback Sam Darnold. However, I’m here to tell you there’s very little if any drop off when they go to backup P.J. Walker. Especially when considering how Darnold has performed in recent weeks. With that being said, it’s the Carolina defense that will earn us a cover. The Panthers are allowing just 19.9 points and 295.6 yards per game. The Panthers are coming off last Sunday’s 19-13 win at Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.5-point underdog. Since Matt Ruhle became Carolina’s head coach in 2019, the Panthers have gone a profitable 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU following an underdog SU win. Bet the Panthers plus the points. |
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11-07-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Bengals | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
Browns @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Browns +2.5 (5*) For starters, the Browns are 5- versus the Bengals over the past 3 years which includes a 2-game sweep last season. Cincinnati showed their inexperience on handling success after last week’s 34-31 road loss to the Jets in a game they closed as a substantial 11.5point favorite and dropped their record to 5-2 (.625). The Browns are coming off a disappointing 15-10 home favorite loss to Pittsburgh. The combination of those results and existing data leads to a never lost NFL betting angle which is displayed below. Any NFL team (Browns) that’s coming off a SU favorite loss in which they failed to cover by 9.0-points or more, and they’re playing after Game 5 of their season, versus an opponent (Bengals) coming off a road game in which both teams scored 24 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .625 or worse, resulted in those team like the Browns going 11-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a healthy 16.0 points per game. Bet the Browns plus the small number. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Arkansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Arkansas -4.0 (10*) Mississippi State is coming off last Saturday’s home win over nationally ranked Kentucky. That victory was key in the Bulldogs being ranked #17 in the first college football playoff poll. Yet they’re an underdog against an Arkansas team that failed to crack the Top 25 in that very same poll, and with an identical 5-3 record as they possess. Arkansas is also coming off a bye week which is always an advantage when facing an unrested opponent at this point of the season. Both teams defenses are solid. Mississippi State has passed on an enormous 72.4% of their offensive snaps this season. Conversely, Arkansas has run the ball on 65.7% of their offensive snaps this season. However, the Razorbacks still average over 200 passing yards per game and extremely impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The defenses will cancel each other out, Arkansas is unequivocally the more balanced offensive team. That will be the key to us attaining a successful cover. Bet Arkansas minus the points for my SEC Game of the Year. |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Michigan State @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET Game# 393-394 Play On: Purdue +3.0 (5*) Why is the #3 ranked team in the latest college football poll Michigan State (8-0) only a 3-point favorite at unranked Purdue? I’ll tell you why, because like myself the oddsmakers don’t believe Michigan State is as good as their record and current ranking indicates. Besides, I can’t imagine that the Spartans can come close to matching the level of intensity they displayed at home last week against bitter rival and still #7 ranked Michigan. Furthermore, Michigan State needed to overcome a sizable 16-point 2nd half deficit on their way to a 37-33 win. Purdue is coming off last week’s 28-23 win at Nebraska which leaves them 1 win away from bowl eligibility. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Purdue pull off an outright upset in this spot. Nevertheless, let’s not get greedy and take the points being given to us. Bet Purdue plus the points. |
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11-06-21 | SMU v. Memphis +5 | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Memphis +5.0 (5*) SMU is coming off their first loss of the season 44-37 at Houston. SMU is a quick tempo high scoring team. In any event, the Mustangs are vulnerable defensively and that equation has been a familiar theme during recent seasons. Their defensive ineptness places an inordinate amount of pressure on its offense to be near perfect on a weekly basis. It’s extremely difficult for a team like SMU subscribing to that formula without slipping up on 2-3 occasions over the course of a season. Memphis hasn’t played up to their standards this season, and as a result, the Tigers are currently 4-4. Nonetheless, they are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming against #16 UTSA (8-0), and even then it came by a slim 3-point margin. As a matter of fact, Memphis has gone an outstanding 30-2 SU in their last 32 at home which includes 6-0 ATS as an underdog with 5 of those resulting in SU wins. Memphis is also 18-1 in their last 19 conference home games with their lone setback transpiring back in 2018 which was a narrow 1-point loss to then nationally ranked Central Florida. It also should be noted, 3 of the Tigers 4 losses have come by 6 points or fewer. Bet Memphis plus the points. |
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11-06-21 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +15 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Nebraska 12:00 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Nebraska +15.0 (5*) Nebraska enters this Big 10 showdown with #5 Ohio State with a disappointing 3-6 record. However, all 6 of those losses have come by 8 points or fewer. That includes losses to #3 Michigan State by 3, #7 Michigan by 3, #8 Oklahoma by 7, and #20 Minnesota by 7. Even more compelling is the fact that they have outgained their 9 opponents by an average of 121.7 yards per game. Additionally, all 3 of Nebraska’s wins have come at home. Despite the disparity in these team’s records, Nebraska is battle tested and more than capable of giving Ohio State all they can handle. Bet Nebraska plus the points. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Jets @ Colts 8:20 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Colts -10.0 (5*) The Jets are coming off a shocking upset of Cincinnati last week and they did so as an 11.5-point home underdog. They piled up an enormous 511 yards of total offense against a Cincinnati defense which had been stout up until that point. Their previous high was 355 yards in their only other win which came as a home underdog against Tennessee. Now the Jets go on the road where they’re 0-3 SU&ATS this season and were outscored by a massive 24.0 points per game. Additionally, since 2019, the Jets are 4-12 ATS as a road underdog and were outscored by an average of 15.2 points per contest. Jets quarterback Mike White had an awesome NFL starting debut last week while throwing for over 400 yards. However, the Colts will be the first team he’ll face who had extensive tape on him to look at and I don’t anticipate him coming closing to matching his tremendous performance just 4 days ago. Not to mention, White will be making his first NFL road start and doing so on an abbreviated work week. The Colts are coming off a disappointing 34-31 overtime loss to Tennessee in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The good news, since 2019 and all under current head coach Frank Reich, the Colts are 5-0 SU&ATS immediately after a straight up favorite loss with an average victory margin of 13.2 points per game. The Colts enter this week with an uninspiring 3-5 record. Nevertheless, their 5 losses have come against opponents that presently have a combined record of 21-9 (.700). Bet the Colts minus the points. |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +5 | 109-98 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Philadelphia @ Detroit 7:10 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Detroit +5.0 (5*) Philadelphia will be playing with no rest following a 4-game homestand that saw them go 4-0 and conclude with last night’s 103-98 win over Chicago. The 76ers covered in each of the previous 3. Ironically enough, the homestand began with a 110-102 win over Detroit and it was their lone non-cover while coming up short as a 10.5-point favorite. The 76ers enter today with a stellar 6-2 (.750) record. Detroit will look to rebound after an embarrassing last 2 games in which they lost at Brooklyn 117-91 and to Milwaukee 117-89. Those 2 losses dropped Detroit to a dismal 1-6 (.143) start to the season. The team statistical data in this matchup points to another Detroit blowout loss and that certainly has swayed public betting patterns to overwhelmingly side with Philadelphia. Any NBA home team (Detroit) with a point-spread of 9.0 or less that’s coming off a loss by 7 points or more, and their season win percentage is .250 or worse, versus an opponent (Philadelphia) who’s coming off SU&ATS wins in each of their previous 2 contests, and they possess a win percentage of between .600 to .750, resulted in those home teams going an extremely profitable 16-1 ATS (94.1%) since the start of the 2012-2013 NBA season. Those home teams also won 11 of those 17 contests straight up and their average point-spread was +5.5. Bet Detroit plus the points. |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -8.5 | 52-49 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo 7:00 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Toledo -8.5 (5*) Toledo is a deceiving 4-4 this season. The Rockets suffered 3 of their 4 defeats by 3-points or fewer which included 32-29 at #8 Notre Dame. Toledo is coming off an impressive 34-15 win over Western Michigan and did so as a 1.5-point home underdog. These teams met at Eastern Michigan last season and Toledo walked away with a 45-28 win. Any college football conference home favorite of 3.5 to 11.0 with a win percentage of .444 or better, and they’re coming off a home underdog SU win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent playing with revenge, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 19.5 points per game. Bet on Toledo minus the points. |
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11-01-21 | Giants +10.5 v. Chiefs | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
NY Giants @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Giants +10.5 (5*) For starters, Kansas City has gone 0-7 ATS in their previous 7 regular season home games with all coming as a favorite and lost 3 of those contests straight up. That includes 2 straight home losses this year to the Chargers and Bills. The Chiefs are coming off a dismal performance at Tennessee in which they were blown out 27-3 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Chiefs were a -2 turnover margin in the lass and that now makes 5 straight games in which they had less takeaways than their opponents had. As a matter of fact, during the Chiefs last 6 games in which they went 2-4, Kansas City has an atrocious -12 turnover margin. The Giants are coming off an encouraging 25-3 home win over Carolina this past weekend. During that win, they held the Panthers offense to only 173 total yards and was +1 in the turnover department. You may be surprised to know that since 9/23/2018 the Giants have gone an extremely profitable 16-4 ATS as a road underdog. Tightening that impressive money-making streak up even further, during that identical stretch they were 12-1 ATS as a non-division road underdog of 14.0 or less and won 5 of those contests straight up. Any road NFL pick/underdog that was a +1 or better in turnover margin during its previous game, and they’re facing an opponent who had -1 or worse turnover margin in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those road underdogs going 33-4 ATS (89.2%) since 2017. Furthermore, those road teams also won 18 of those 37 games straight up and their average point-spread was +6.3. Bet the Giants plus the points. |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings -3 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
Dallas @ Minnesota 8:20 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (10*) As per usual, Dallas is certain to attract a sizable amount of support from a betting perspective in this contest. They enter this stand alone nationally televised primetime game on a 5-0 SU&ATS streak while outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per contest. Yet, here they are as a 3.0-point underdog versus a 3-3 Minnesota team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog and I’m not falling for the trap. Additionally, since 2019, Dallas is 0-6 SU&ATS coming off a win and when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0 and lost by an average of 11.8 points per game. This is still a porous Dallas defense in my opinion. They’re allowing 24.3 points and 381.2 yards per game. Those defensive numbers could be even worse if not for the fact they’ve forced 14 turnovers in their first 6 games. They’ll be facing a Minnesota team that have averaged less than 1 turnover committed per game. Minnesota is one of just a few teams that can come close to matching the Cowboys offensive explosiveness. The Vikings are 5th in the NFL when it comes to total offense at 414.2 yards gained per game. The Vikings 3 losses have come against Arizona, Cleveland, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 16-5. Furthermore, those 3 defeats came by a combined 11 points. The Vikings are much better than their 3-3 record indicates, and this current point-spread exemplifies that. Moreover, since Mike Zimmer has taken over as the Vikings head coach, Minnesota has gone an impressive 17-7 SU and 19-4 ATS at home versus non-division opponents with a win percentage of .375 or better. Bet Minnesota minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +4.5 | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: New Orleans +4.5 (5*) I am not going to waste your time by attempting to poke holes in the Tampa Bay resume. I’d rather make a case from another angle and that’s New Orleans as an underdog during Sean Payton’s head coaching tenure. Since 2018, New Orleans has gone 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 2.0-points or greater under Payton. Furthermore, the Saints have gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 regular season contests versus Tampa Bay and won by an average of 16.8 points per game. Furthermore, New Orleans is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 at home following a win and versus an opponent off a win. Bet on New Orleans plus the points. |
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10-31-21 | 49ers v. Bears +4 | 33-22 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
San Francisco @ Chicago 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Chicago +4.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that since 2019, San Francisco has gone an abysmal 1-9 ATS when facing teams with a losing record. They will be facing a 3-4 Bears team on Sunday. Furthermore, since the start of last season, the 49ers are 1-6 SU versus teams with a losing record. The 49ers opened the season 2-0 and both wins occurred on the road. However, those victories came over Detroit and Philadelphia who are currently a combined 2-12 this season. Since that time, the 49ers have gone 0-4 SU&ATS and they were favorite in 3 of those contests. The Bears have been profitable within this point-spread parameter as a home underdog in recent years. As a matter of fact, since 12/21/2014, Chicago is 15-4 ATS as a home underdog of 3.0 or greater versus all teams not named Green Bay. Chicago’s 4 losses this season have come against opponents that presently have a combined 22-6 record. Conversely 2 of their 3 wins came over Cincinnati (5-2) and Las Vegas (5-2). Bet Chicago plus the points. |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Indianapolis 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Indianapolis -2.5 (5*) Despite this being a division game, this is a classic flat spot for Tennessee. After all, the Titans are coming off wins over Kansas City and Buffalo in their last 2 games and accomplished both as a home underdog. Conversely, after an unexpected 0-3 start to the season, the Colts have rebounded to win 3 of its last 4 and is currently on a 2-game win streak. Their only loss in that sequence came in overtime at Baltimore. The Colts are an opportunistic team has a turnover margin of +9 for the season and look for that to be a key in attaining the win and cover. Bet Indianapolis minus the points. |
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10-30-21 | Fresno State v. San Diego State | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET Game# 213-214 Play On: Fresno State (Pick/-110) Granted San Diego State is 7-0 and ranked #21 nationally. I still firmly believe that 6-2 Fresno State is the better team in this matchup, and definitively so offensively. Fresno State is battle tested on the road after already winning at UCLA as a double-digit underdog and having taken #7 Oregon down to the wire in a 7-point loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Aztecs most notable win on their resume was an overtime 2-point home win over Utah and all 7 of its wins have come over currently unranked opponents. This is a Fresno team that averages 35.6 points scored and 479.6 yards gained per game. On the other hand, over their previous 3 contests San Diego State has averaged 23.3 points scored and 268.3 yards gained per game. Bet on Fresno State. |
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10-30-21 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | 34-44 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: North Carolina +3.5 (10*) Notre Dame is coming last Saturday 31-16 win over USC, and they covered as a 7.5-point home favorite. That victory improved their season record to 6-1. Nonetheless, 3 of their 6 wins came by exactly 3 points. Conversely, North Carolina is coming off a 45-42 home win over Miami Fla. This sets up an outstanding college football betting angle which is displayed below. Any college football underdog of 3.5 or less (North Carolina) that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 48 or less, versus an opponent (North Carolina) coming off a home favorite ATS win, and they have at least 1 loss on the season, resulted in those small away underdogs going 25-1 ATS (96.1%) since 2006 and they won 24 of those 26 contests straight up. Bet on North Carolina plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-30-21 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech -4 | 26-17 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech 12:00 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Georgia Tech -4.0 (5*) Virginia Tech has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and all those took place at home. You can give them an excuse in losses versus #11 and #17 Pittsburgh who have a combined record of 12-2 this season. But last week’s 41-36 loss to Syracuse in a game they blew a 9-point lead with less than 3 minutes to play was of the gut-wrenching variety. During this 3-game losing streak, the Hokies have allowed 33.7 points and 450.0 yards per game. Georgia Tech is coming last Saturday’s 48-40 loss at Virginia. Nevertheless, they have gone a perfect 3-0 this season following a loss and won by 18.3 points per contest. The Yellowjackets offense has shown vast improvement throughout their previous 3 contests while amassing 30.7 points scored and 480.7 yards gained per game. Bet Georgia Tech minus the points. |
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10-30-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -3 | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Wisconsin 12:00 PM ET Game# 117-118 Play On: Wisconsin -3.0 (5*) So let me make sure I get this right. We have an Iowa team that’s coming off a home upset 24-7 loss to Purdue at which time they were ranked #2, playing with a week of rest, and finds themselves as an underdog versus a 4-3 unranked Wisconsin team. If it smells like a rat, looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. The sportsbooks just aren’t that generous or kind. This is a classic example of when thinking like an oddsmaker will pay dividends. By the way, Wisconsin is coming off last Saturday’s easy 30-13 win at Purdue and held the Boilermakers to a mere 206 yards of total offense while also forcing 5 turnovers. Comparatively speaking, during Iowa’s home loss to Purdue 2 weeks ago they allowed the Boilermakers to rack up 464 yards of total offense. Bet Wisconsin minus the points. |
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10-29-21 | Clippers +3 v. Blazers | 92-111 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
LA Clippers @ Portland 10:10 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: LA Clippers +3.0 (5*) The Clippers are off to a disappointing 1-3 start to the season. However, their last win came this past Monday over Portland by a lopsided score 116-86. Since the start of the 2019-2020 NBA season, the Clippers are now 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS versus Portland. That’s a trend which is hard to ignore considering they are an underdog tonight. The Clippers will also look to rebound from an embarrassing 97-79 loss to Cleveland as a 8.5-point home favorite in their previous game. Any NBA away team with a point-spread of +3.0 to -3.0 that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss by 10 points or more and they failed to cover by 18.0 or more, resulted in those away teams going 16-1 SU&ATS over the past 4 seasons. Bet the Clippers plus the points. |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Green Bay @ Arizona 8: 20 PM ET PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Arizona -6.5 (5*) Aaron Rogers will be handcuffed tonight without his top target Davante Adams not available. All Adams has done through the first 7 games is haul in 52 pass receptions for 744 yards and average 14.3 yards per catch. Additionally, one of his secondary targets Alan Lazard will not dress as well. Rogers has been sacked a rather high 17 times this season and he’ll be facing an Arizona defense who’s sacked the quarterback 19 times. Additionally, despite their 6-1 record, you may be surprised to know that Green Bay ranks #23 in total offense while gaining only 337.9 yards per game. Conversely, Arizona is #4 in total defense after allowing just 316.7 yards per game through its first 7 contests. Not only have the Cardinals been stout defensively but they’re also dynamic offensively. It all starts with Kyler Murray who has passed for 2002 yards and 17 touchdowns while running for 3 scores as well. Through his first 2 plus NFL seasons, Murray has run for 1489 yards and 17 touchdowns. Arizona possesses the #4 scoring offense at 32.4 points scored per game and is #7 in total yards at 402.1 yards gained per contest. You can make a strong case that the Cardinals are the superior team on both sides of the ball in this matchup of 2 NFC heavyweights. Arizona is coming off a 31-5 win over Houston this past Sunday and covered as a huge 18.0-point home favorite. Any NFL Thursday home favorite of 6.0 or more that’s playing before Game 13 of the season, and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win, resulted in those Thursday home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1994 and they won by an average of 13.6 points per game. Bet Arizona minus the points. |
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10-28-21 | Knicks +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
New York @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: New York +1.5 (10*) The Bulls have started the season 4-0 SU&ATS and looked outstanding in doing so. Yet, they find themselves as just a tiny favorite against a 3-1 Knicks team. When examining the Bulls resume thus far, they have posted wins over Toronto (2-3), New Orleans (1-4), and Detroit (0-3) 2 times. Those opponents currently have a combined 3-10 (.231) season record. I had the Knicks as a Top Play wager in their previous game within this same point-spread parameter, and they easily covered in a 14-point win over Philadelphia. Since 1/18/2021, New York has gone an extremely profitable 20-3 SU and 20-2-1 ATS in regular season games in which their point-spread is +2.5 to -2.5, and if their opponent is coming off a win, they improved to 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. The numbers don’t lie, and liars don’t figure. Bet on New York on any point-spread of +2.5 to -2.5 over Chicago for a Top Play wager. |
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10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors +1 | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Indiana @ Toronto 7:40 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Toronto +1.0 (5*) Since the start of last season, Indiana has gone 0-5 SU&ATS in conference road games when their point-spread was +2.5 to -2.5 and they lost by an average of 6.4 points per contest. This will be the 3rd road game of the season for Indiana and they’re 0-2 SU&ATS in the first 2 with both coming as a favorite. Indiana likes to play a high tempo offensive game and as a result they’ve allowed 119 points or more in 3 of their 4 games. Toronto is coming off home underdog ATS losses in each of their last 2 contests which dropped their season record to 1-3. However, since the start of the 1996-1997 NBA season, home teams that are playing in their first 6 games and are coming off home underdog ATS losses in each of their previous 2 outings, resulted in those home teams going 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU. Granted it’s not a huge sample size and can surely be deemed as rare occurrences. Nonetheless, it’s impactful and usually prompts public betting to side with the road teams when it indeed arises. My experience leads me to believe that will indeed be the case again in this matchup. Going against the public is rarely a bad thing to do. By the way, the Raptors have gone 11-0 in their last 11 true home games versus Indiana. Bet on Toronto. |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Tampa Bay -11.5 (5*) One of my cardinal rules has been to never lay a double-digit number in the NFL. However, this is a rare exception. The Chicago offense has amassed more rushing yards than passing yards in each of their previous 5 games. That’s a real rarity in the modern-day NFL. That’s also an issue since the will be facing a Tampa Bay defense that’s #1 in the NFL against the run in allowing a mere 54.8 yards rushing per game. The Tampa run defense was also #1 against the run last season as well at 80.6 yards allowed per game. How about Chicago’s pass offense? Well, I’m glad you asked. Their averaging a pathetic 117.2 yards passing per game which is dead last in the NFL and by a substantial margin. The Bears have also allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked a league high 22 times. The Chicago defense is #7 in total defense. Nonetheless, against a relentless and explosive offensive attack that Tampa Bay possesses, they’ll get completely worn down as the game progresses. Additionally, since 2019 the Bears have gone 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14.0 and lost by an average of 17.0 points per game. This will be the 3rd time that Tampa Bay is a double-digit home favorite since 2019. They covered each of the previous 2 and won by a mammoth 25.5 points per game. The Bucs are 3-0 at home this season and outscored their opponents by a massive 29.3 points per game. They’ll be facing a Bears team that has averaged a paltry 13.3 points scored per game in 3 road contests. Bet Tampa Bay minus the points. |
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10-23-21 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Utah @ Oregon State 7:30 PM ET Game# 373-374 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) Since starting the season 1-2, Utah has reeled off 3 straight wins and all came versus conference opponents. On the other hand, Oregon State will be in a sour mood after suffering a 31-24 upset loss at Washington State 2 weeks ago in a game they closed as a 4.5-point favorite. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-2 with their only other setback occurring at #25 Purdue 30-21 during their season opener. The Beavers are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 21.0 points per game. Oregon State has rushed for 242 yards or more in each of their previous 5 games. The Beavers defense has held 4 of their 6 opponents to 92 yards or less rushing. After convincing wins over USC and Arizona State in their last 2 games, Utah will be vulnerable to come up flat on Saturday. Meanwhile, Oregon State had 2 weeks to prepare for this home contest. Bet on Oregon State plus the points. |
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10-23-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force -3 | 20-14 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ Air Force 7:00 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: Air Force -3.0 (5*) We have an unranked Air Force team (6-1) as a favorite over #22 and undefeated San Diego State (6-0). With all due respected to those who vote in the national polls, but I will always trust the oddsmakers ability to post an accurate line compared their ability to rank teams, and especially so when it’s beyond the Top 10. Air Force will enter this game on a 4-game win streak. Any home team with a point-spread of +12.0 to -12.0 that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they’re facing an opponent (San Diego State) coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those home teams going 23-2 ATS and 22-3 SU since 2017. Bet on Air Force minus the small number. |
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10-23-21 | Nevada v. Fresno State -3.5 | 32-34 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
Nevada @ Fresno State 7:00 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Fresno State -3.5 (5*) This is an unheralded but extremely intriguing game between 2 very good Mountain West Conference teams. However, I am more impressed with the Fresno State resume when comparing it to Nevada. Fresno State had a huge upset win at UCLA earlier this season as a double-digit dog and gave #10 Oregon all they can handle in a 31-24 road loss as an 18.0-point underdog. The Bulldogs will also be out to revenge losses to Nevada in each of the previous 2 seasons. Both teams can score a lot of points. Nevertheless, I like the defense of Fresno much better than that of Nevada’s, and that will be a key reason why we’ll cover this contest. Bet on Fresno State minus the points. |
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog in this spot with all being considered. After all, we have #8 and undefeated Oklahoma State as a touchdown underdog against an unranked team Iowa State with a season mark of 4-2. The Cyclones have underachieved this season after being a preseason Top 10 team considered to be a legitimate college football playoff contender. However, they were knocked off at #11 Iowa (6-1) and at #20 Baylor (6-1). They won’t be a playoff team but remains a serious Big 12 title threat if the can win on Saturday. I said it before and I will say it again, Oklahoma State is a fraudulent Top 10 team. The Cowboys 6 wins this season have all come by 11 or fwer and by an average of 7.0 points per game. This is a classic example of me trusting the oddsmakers in setting an accurate line compared to pollsters ranking teams. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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