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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-18 | Duke +2.5 v. Kentucky | 118-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Duke/Kentucky 9:30: Like to take points in this one with the Blue Devils which got the best of Kentucky in this series 7 of the last 9 meetings. Coach K landed the top 3 recruits in the nation: Zion Williamson, Barrett and Reddish. He surely can mold talent and according to inside sources, their meshing well. In addition, freshman PG Tre Jones, who passes very well, has established a nice rhythm offensively with his teammates. Of course, Kentucky is loaded with talent including Stanford transfer Reid Travis; however, I'll look for Duke to eke out the win here on this neutral floor. Duke a solid 11-5 on neutral floors and 10-4 ATS in non-conference. Duke the call. |
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11-06-18 | Kent State v. Buffalo -20 | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
Kent State/Buffalo 7:30: The road team has dominated this series and Kent has performed well in Buffalo; however, this Bulls team is a different animal. Bulls' QB Jackson is elusive and has dangerous targets in possession receiver Osborn and deep threat Anthony Johnson. Kent's defense ranks in the bottom tier of the MAC. Sure, Kent State finished off lightweight Bowling Green last week but Buffalo will be too steep of a challenge. Kent could keep this competitive in the first half so a 1st half line on Kent State would be the way to go, especially with Bulls' star linebacker Hodge out in the first half because of targeting last week; however, Bulls should wear down Kent State in the second half. Bulls' have a top tier defense in the MAC and although QB Woody Barrett and company looked good last week - remember, Bowling Green's defense is almost non-existent. Kent's offensive line has allowed 35 sacks and Buffalo should scheme accordingly to keep Barrett under duress most of this game. Buffalo a strong 9-0-1 ATS in the 2nd of back to back home games. |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys -4.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
Titans/Cowboys 8:15: Concerns of generating enough offense keep me from grabbing the points with the Titans here. They have struggled on the true road and rank in the bottom tier of the NFL in yards and points manufactured. Dallas is #3 in total defense and vs the pass. DE Lawrence manages to come alive at home (7 sacks last 5 home games). Mariotta does a bang up job running the offense; however, he doesn't have a consistent vertical threat nor a TE since Walker went down. Surely Stocter, Smith and Firkser are not the answer. And RB Henry hasn't been that consistent running threat. That Tennessee lack of offense should have a wearing down effect defensively throughout the course of this game. Dallas now has a vertical threat in Amari Cooper. And RB Elliot should continue his strong running at home. Cowboys have historically been strong in November at home (41-29 ATS) and off bye weeks (13-6 ATS). We'll look for the coaching shakeup (offensive line) to be their wakeup call and deliver here. |
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11-04-18 | Packers +6 v. Patriots | 17-31 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
11-04-18 | Chargers v. Seahawks +1 | Top | 25-17 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
Chargers/Seahawks 4:05: Seahawks on a nice roll as HC Carroll once again steers his team on a run for a playoff birth. Chargers are also doing well but the benefactor of a soft schedule enabling them to beat the sub-par teams. Anthony Lynn now just 3-8 ATS vs winning teams and 1-6 ATS vs opponents off a SU win. Sure, they're coming off a bye but just 3-8 ATS with rest. Without Bosa (foot) wreaking havoc on QBs, we'll look for elusive QB Wilson to keep getting it done, especially now that the run game (3rd in NFL) is cooking. Seattle the call. |
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11-04-18 | Bears -9 v. Bills | 41-9 | Win | 100 | 113 h 13 m | Show | |
Bears/Bills 1:00: Scheduling difficulty and personnel problems put Buffalo in bad spot. They're operating on a short week after a strong effort Monday at home vs New England. Bills were in the game for 3.5 quarters but just don't have the firepower offensively to move the ball. And with backup QB Derek Anderson in concussion protocol, that leaves the dreaded Peterson as the only option. Nathan Peterman was mediocre in college at Pittsburgh and he's an interception magnet in the NFL. And surely Bills first year OC Daboll is not comfortable in his role; after all, Bills' QBs have a combined 3 TDs to 13 INTs! With Khalil Mack (questionable) possibly back on the edge on an already pretty tough Bears' defense, we'll look for Bears' DC Fangio to dial up a variety of exotic blitzes to add to Peterman's misery. We'll lay the wood now that Chicago has the balanced offensive attack. |
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11-03-18 | Alabama v. LSU +14.5 | 29-0 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
11-03-18 | Georgia -7.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Georgia/Kentucky Noon: Good value with the Bulldogs equipped to deliver another knockout here. Last year, a 41-13 thrashing. Sure, Georgia graduated many of those players but reloaded with another top 3 FBS class. Kentucky does possess the top scoring defense in the nation but this will be their biggest test with a well balanced run game, a veteran QB Fromm and some top flight receivers. On the other hand, Kentucky relies on jump starting their offense with the power ground game led by Snell. Georgia's rock solid defense is wired to stop this team and surely QB Terry Wilson won't pick the ball hawking Bulldogs' secondary apart. Georgia is a sweet 15-0 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs a conference opponent off a SU dog win. Georgia cruises. |
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11-03-18 | Minnesota -9 v. Illinois | 31-55 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
Minnesota/Illinois Noon: Now that Minnesota has found its QB in redshirt freshman - Tanner Morgan, we'll look for smooth sailing here against the worst defense in the Big 10. Minnesota 5-2 ATS in this series. Illinois just 14-26 ATS vs Big 10 opponents .500 or over. |
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11-03-18 | Michigan State -1 v. Maryland | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 84 h 5 m | Show | |
Michigan State/Maryland Noon: DJ Durkin's return to the sideline should create some animosity and division among the team. Some players walked out of a meeting that was held by Durkin today after the announcement was made that Durkin would be restated as HC. Canada did a solid job holding the program together in the interim. Meanwhile, Michigan State regaining the mojo and playing like they were expected to prior to the season. They're coming into this one off a big win over Purdue and with questions at QB; nevertheless, like the way they're playing now and will back Michigan State. Spartans 19-9-2 ATS on the road vs teams with winning home records. MD a poor 2-6 ATS in November and not strong off blowout wins. Michigan State the call. |
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11-02-18 | Colorado +3 v. Arizona | 34-42 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
Colorado/Arizona 10:30: Both of these teams are heading in opposite directions. Arizona is on a 3-1 ATS run off a blowout win over ranked Oregon. Colorado, on an 0-3 slide, collapsed last week surrendering a 31-3 third quarter lead to lightweight Oregon State. Colorado did get QB Montez going last week and he should work over an embattled Arizona secondary. A Buffaloes player only meeting was held to salvage this season. We'll look for Colorado to get it rolling here. Buffaloes 7-2 ATS on the road with revenge and overdue to get back on track. The Buffaloes are also 5-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss. Arizona sports a 1-6 ATS mark at home vs an opponent with revenge. With the road team at 6-0 ATS in this series and the Buffaloes a pretty good Friday night team at 5-1 ATS, we'll grab the field goal here. |
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11-01-18 | Temple +11 v. Central Florida | 40-52 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Temple/UCF 7:30: Temple HC Collins continues to be a spread covering machine as he rattled off a 6-0 ATS run. Collins is 13-4 ATS since late September of last season with the Owls. Both teams coming off a bye week and I'll give the edge to Temple. Their pass defense is 4th in the FBS and with uncertainty at QB for Milton (GTD) with an undisclosed injury, we'll look for the Owls to be well prepared to face either him or Mack - who played last week at East Carolina. I'm not crazy about Temple QB Russo (10 INT) but he showed grit in OT win vs Cincinnati on the 20th. And he's surrounded by a solid group including RB Armstead (questionable). Temple is looking to avenge last year's 45-19 loss at home. This year's Temple team is much better but UCF is down a few notches from last year's bunch despite the undefeated record. Take the gritty Owls and the points here. |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | 42-51 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
Miami-OH/Buffalo 8:00: Bulls on a roll and should exact revenge on the Redhawks from last year's loss. Buffalo has a more balanced offense with 6'7" QB Jackson throwing to a quality duo in go-to-guy Osborn and deep threat Johnson. Miami's numbers look pretty good but questionable opposition. Bulls a sweet 5-0 ATS as a home favorite of more than 2 points with revenge. They've covered 8 of their last 10 at home and overdue to turn the table in this series. Buffalo the call. |
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10-28-18 | Packers +9 v. Rams | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Packers/Rams 4:25: Packers' receiving corps getting healthier as Cobb and Allison should be well enough to join TE Graham and red hot Adams; consequently, that should make life much better for QB Aaron Rodgers, who has had immense success against the Rams. Of course, this is no ordinary Rams team of the past. LA is a legit undefeated team with dangerous weaponry on both sides of the ball. Nevertheless, they're struggling to cover against winning teams. Packers a solid 22-11 SU / 20-12 ATS off a bye week. Packers a sweet 9-1 ATGS vs an opponent off back-to-back away games. Pack the call. |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Seahawks/Lions 1:00: Matt Patricia not ready for prime time against Super Bowl winning coach Pete Carroll. Carroll's boys coming off a successful trip to London and well rested. Teams coming off that week of rest after the London gig have a high percentage win rate and we'll gladly take the points here. Defensively, the Seahawks were supposed to be in a major overhaul but are getting healthier (K.J. Wright back) and Bobby Wagner is the highest rated LB in production in the NFL after seven weeks. Moreover, Seattle might not generate lots of sacks but are in the top 7 generating pressure on QBs at 31.7% of the time. Offensively, Seattle's RB Chris Carson has 352 rushing yards and should put a dent in the 30th ranked run-stop-unit of Detroit; consequently, QB Wilson, who's having another fine year, should find Lockett and Baldwin for significant gains. Seattle sports a 10-0 ATS mark as a conference dog off SU/ATS win. Seattle the call. |
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10-28-18 | Jets +10 v. Bears | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Jets/Bears 1:00: Injuries racking up for the Jets on the offensive end but not as bad as the public perception. Jets still have adequate depth and, among the skill players, RB Crowell is a solid replacement for Powell (neck). Laying double digits a bit of stretch for Chicago; after all, they're 3-7 ATS in their last 10 favorite roles. And with Todd Bowles (Jets' HC) at a sweet 7-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off a SU loss, we'll grab the points and the competitive Jets. |
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10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Eagles 9:30: Jags and Bortles usually do well in London but going to fade them here. Just when you think the Jags may shake out of their funk, something disastrous happens. As it turns out, a major portion of their secondary: Church, Harrison, Wilson and Hayden were detained last night for not paying their tab at a burlesque club. As bad as their defense has been in recent weeks, this no time for these guys to lose focus elsewhere. We'll look for Philadelphia to get it back in gear after their disastrous collapse last week. |
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10-27-18 | Tulane +1 v. Tulsa | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
10-27-18 | Arizona State v. USC -3 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -5.5 | 31-40 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
10-27-18 | Army v. Eastern Michigan -1 | 37-22 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
10-26-18 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. Boston College | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
Miami/BC 7:00: Miami-Fla had time to stew over their loss at Virginia on the 13th. QB Rosier should get the start tonight and get the Hurricane offense finally heading in the right direction. Defensively, Miami has been strong - allowing a measly 236 YPG or 3 yards per play. That's 100+ less YPG than their counterpart - BC gives up. Miami is 6-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Miami-Fla HC Richt is a sweet 34-4 away as a conference favorite of more than 2 points. On the other hand, BC is a mere 1-9 SU / 2-7-1 ATS as a home dog under Addazio. Got to go with The U here. |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans -7 | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Miami/Houston 8:20: Not a fan of former Texan QB Osweiler as he'll get a rude awakening from the Houston crowd and the Texans' defense. We'll look for the revved up Houston defense to keep him under duress all night. Dolphins receiving corps lacks a vertical threat and I don't see too many explosive plays touching down. On the other hand, Dolphins' defense has its share of holes and we'll look for playmaking QB Watson to turn up his game as he gets more comfortable with his supporting cast every week. And I like that Houston is 12-0 and 10-2 ATS as a favorite against a team of 4+ points under O'Brien. Houston the call. |
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10-25-18 | Baylor +14 v. West Virginia | 14-58 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Baylor/West Virginia 7:00: At first glance, appears the Mounties will get their act back in gear, after suffering bad loss to Iowa State on the 13th, and roll the defenseless Bears; however, not so fast. Bears have been extremely competitive in this series trading blow for blow with the Mounties the last few seasons. Bears' QB Brewer has been solid in leading a still explosive offense under Rhule. And Baylor a bit more disciplined in holding on to the ball and less penalties. WV a disappointing 1-6 ATS as a conference favorite with rest gives us value with also rested Bears. |
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10-22-18 | Giants +4.5 v. Falcons | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
Giants/Falcons 8:15: Giants not as bad as what their record indicates and can't get worse than last game (Phil on 11th). Giants had time to mend bodies and work out fundamental flaws; consequently, we'll look for a better showing tonight. NY 9-0-1 after Thursday game and given a full 10 days of rest, Giants should show up here. Atlanta's defense sorely misses the best OLB in the NFL - Deion Jones (out). And fortunately Atlanta's injury ravaged defense, including along the defensive front, will allow QB Manning to do more than check down to All-World RB Barkley. Giants are a sweet 13-6-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Atlanta has not been a good October team at 1-7 ATS. We'll look for the Giants to show up tonight for a change. |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys v. Redskins +1.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Redskins 4:25: The Cowboys have gotten the best in this series winning 8 of the last 10 and sweeping last year's series. Today, we'll look for Washington to finally deliver. QB Alex Smith has had success against the Cowboys' secondary to the tune of 665 yards with 6 TD/2 INTs. Cowboys' defensive line is hobbling with injuries but managing to play through it. And LB Sean Lee is still roughing it with a lingering hamstring problem which can drag on for a season. We'll look for Washington to settle in with their assortment of weaponry including Adrian Peterson and TE Jordan Reid. And defensively, with potentially a great defensive line should help limit Prescott and Elliot. And when Cole Beasley is your go-to-guy with virtually no vertical threat, I don't see the Cowboys running away with this. Redskins 8-0 ATS with revenge vs .500 or greater division opponent off a double digit SU win. 'Skins the call. |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears +3 | 38-31 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
10-21-18 | Texans +4.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10-20-18 | NC State +17.5 v. Clemson | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NC State/Clemson 3:30: NC State has played a light schedule but odds makers over adjusted with the generous amount of points. Clemson has been over valued much of the year as their 2-4 ATS mark illustrates. And the Tigers haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of opponents either - Furman, GA Southern, as well as struggling conference foes G Tech and Wake Forest. And the blowout of WF surely lends value. NC State has covered 6 of the last 8 in this series and won't go into Death Valley intimidated. NC State has an efficient offense run by ACC's top passer Finley (335 YPG). And he's only been sacked twice this year. He's got a good arsenal of weaponry including WR Harmon. Moreover, like the NC State defense which allows just 16.8 PPG. Wolfpack HC Doeren an outstanding 36-6 SU when his team outgains opponent. And throw in that the Wolfpack is 12-0 ATS as a conference dog with rest and we have ourselves a Top Play. |
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10-20-18 | Michigan -7 v. Michigan State | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Michigan/Michigan State Noon: This should be the year Harbaugh delivers against Michigan State. The Spartans have covered 10 straight in this series and won outright 4 of the last 5. Today, however, should belong to Michigan. The Wolves have cleaned up their game since the Week 1 debacle against Notre Dame. QB Patterson is playing like the guy Harbaugh expected him to be. Patterson and the run game decimated a pretty good Badgers' defense last week. Michigan State is having trouble generating a pass rush (86th in nation) and their QB Lewerke has not lived up to the pre-season hype. He surely won't put a dent in the twisted steel defense of the Wolverines which is giving up a meager 3.9 YPP. Wolves should finally deliver. |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +2 | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
Broncos/Cardinals 8:20: Can't lay any points with a Broncos team that's repeatedly burned money on the road at 3-13 ATS. Tonight, they'll limp in to Arizona with key injuries across the board: LB Ray, C Jones, RT Veldheer and G Leary (season). The Cardinals are no lock here either. They're coming off a physical battle at Minnesota but I like tenacity of their defense that held together and kept them in the game. QB Rosen should settle in at home and help generate some offense including getting RB David Johnson revved up in the run game; after all, the Broncos' poor run stop unit gave up back-to-back 200 yard rushing games and there is no quick fix on a short week. Edge to Arizona. |
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10-17-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -2.5 | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -4.5 | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
76ers/Celtics 8:05: With a healthy Hayward and Irving in a loaded Celtics' lineup, 76ers will have their hands full here. 76ers 1-4 ATS in Boston and respectable value awaits with the home team; after all, Boston went 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. We'll lay a little wood tonight. |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -8.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
10-14-18 | Rams -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Rams/Broncos 4:05: Broncos' defense got gashed to the tune of 512 yards last week vs New York. Denver is 30th in league against the run and that doesn't bode well against the league's #1 offense. Rams are in a nice rhythm offensively and can't see the Broncos stopping them here; especially, with Cooks and Kupp now ready for action after being in concussion protocol last week. And defensively, Rams should shape up after a disappointing outing at Seattle last week. Suh and Donald licking their chops against turnover prone Keenum (7 INT). And in October, Rams a sweet 12-1 ATS off a SU win vs an opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Vance Joseph a money burning 1-6 ATS as a dog of 3 or more. Rams the call. |
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10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | 34-42 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Colts/Jets 1:00: Had the Jets (+3) as my Top Play last week but will fade them here. Jets are erratic after big wins as exhibited by their 0-7 ATS mark off a double-digit ATS win vs an opponent off back-to-back losses. And the Jets are 0-5 ATS after scoring more than 30 points. On the other hand, hard to fade Andrew Luck off a loss. He's 22-7 ATS off a loss including 12-0 SU/ATS when coming off a loss of 14 or more points. And remember the last time Luck faced the Jets - 2016 in a 41-10 whitewashing at NY. With the dog at 5-2 ATS in this series, Indy the call. |
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10-13-18 | Colorado +7 v. USC | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Colorado/USC 10:30: Like the chances of the vengeful Buffaloes. Colorado has been competitive in this series at 3-1-1 ATS yet hasn't beaten them in over a decade. Colorado is a sweet 7-0 ATS on the road with revenge. USC, however, is a poor 2-12 ATS vs conference opponents with revenge off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. USC defense a shell of what it used to be and accurate QB Montez (75% completions with 14 TD/2 INT) can keep the Buffaloes in this one. Colorado sports a solid veteran defense that allows just 18.4 PPG. Not a fan of the inconsistent USC offensive line. We'll look for them to keep QB J.T. Daniels and company at bay. |
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10-13-18 | Miami-FL v. Virginia +7.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
10-13-18 | Baylor +14.5 v. Texas | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
Baylor/Texas 3:30: Texas has a tendency to play down to opponents occasionally when things are going good. And things are going good for Herman and company as they sport three Top 25 wins and rank 14th in the nation. Keep in mind though that Texas sports an 0-7 ATS mark off back to back SU wins and they're just 1-10 ATS after scoring 35 or more points vs an opponent with revenge. Well, Baylor is seeking to avenge last year's 38-7 debacle. Baylor no joke. They're equipped with the 12th ranked offense in the nation and do sport a respectable 5-0 ATS mark as a road dog of less than 19 points against an opponent .800 or lower. Bears' QB Brewer has some healthy weapons in Hurd and RB Lovett (good to go) to stay in this one. Bears the call. |
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10-13-18 | Central Florida -5 v. Memphis | 31-30 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
10-12-18 | Arizona v. Utah -13.5 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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10-12-18 | South Florida v. Tulsa +8 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants +3 | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
Eagles/Giants 8:20: Giants have been competitive virtually all season but fail to close out games. Tonight, in their first division home game where they're seeking revenge from getting swept last year, we'll grab that field goal; after all, Shurmur is a sweet 8-1 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off back to back SU losses. Giants are in a better position to win as well. They have a legitimate big game RB in Barkley, a healthy Beckham Jr., better coached offensive line, and have a better red zone defense (3rd in NFL) giving up 33% TD 5conversions as opposed to 47% at this time last year. And remember, last year, both games were tight; as a matter of fact, the last three games in this series resulted in a win by 5 points or fewer. Eagles will miss RB Ajayi (ACL). Giants are 3-0 ATS as a Thursday Night home dog. Eagles 1-6 ATS off a non-division game vs an opponent off back-to-back losses under Pederson. Giants the call. |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU -7 | 17-14 | Loss | -106 | 44 h 42 m | Show | |
Texas Tech/TCU 7:30: TCU beat up TT last year in Lubbock 27-3. Sure, TT is dangerous off a bye week and set for revenge with a veteran group; however, still not sold on their defense which allows 448 YPG and 6.2 yards per play. TCU is a sweet 6-0 ATS at home with rest vs an opponent with revenge. And they're 6-0 ATS after Iowa State. TCU defense once again in the top tier of the Big 12 allowing just 304 YPG and 4.5 yards per play. TCU will be prepared to face QB Bowman (collapsed lung vs WV) and backup Jett Duffey who threw for 173 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT against West Virginia after Bowman went down. TCU likes to eat clock behind their run game led by Darius Anderson. Tech just 1-6 ATS on the conference road getting 7 or less. TCU the call. |
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10-08-18 | Redskins +6 v. Saints | 19-43 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
Redskins/Saints 8:15: Well rested Redskins are 6-0 ATS in this series including last year's 31-34 loss at the Superdome. Revenge is in order for Washington and they've gotten some added talent to deliver again. I like Alex Smith who is accurate and rarely turns the ball over. He will have back Chris Thompson - who broke his leg here last year. And, of course, RB Adrian Peterson would love to have a big game to rub in the face of Sean Payton, whom he had a few run ins with while briefly at New Orleans. Moreover, like WR Jamison Crowder - solid 3rd down back to add to the mix with TE Jordan Reed. New Orleans defense gives up over 100 YPG more than its defensive counterpart - Redskins. Redskins' defense has a formidable front line with Payne, Allen and Settle. Don't believe the return of Ingram will be a huge one like last year against these Redskins. And sure, Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer and has explosive weaponry at his disposal; however, glad CB Josh Norman is back in the mix to help limit those explosive plays. With both teams presenting sub-par MNF records, we'll go with the better defensive team and better ball control team (33 minutes of offense - 3rd in league) to limit Brees and company on the field. Redskins the call. |
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10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets +1.5 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Denver/NY 1:00: Tough spot for Denver - coming off heartbreaking MNF loss and having to travel cross country to play a fired up Jets team with heavy hearts and desperate for a win. Jets found out mid week that their DC Kacy Rodgers has serious health issues and that should inspire the Jets' players. Todd Bowles will assume the DC duties and his unit should continue to be disruptive and add to their 10 forced fumbles. Bowles was not happy with his defense after they gave up 503 yards last week to Jacksonville. Denver does have a bruising run game but lack firepower through the air as QB Keenum with only 3 TD passes while throwing 6 INTs. We'll look for his counterpart Darnold to outplay him as he is overdue for a big game since that Week 1 magical day in Detroit. Denver defense not what it used to be in terms of forcing turnovers and getting critical key stops. And Denver sports a very poor 1-8 ATS road mark under HC Joseph. Jets a good October team at 6-0-1 ATS and we'll roll with them here. |
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10-07-18 | Packers +1 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Packers/Lions 1:00: Packers in a double revenge mode after getting swept in this series last year. Note, Aaron Rodgers did not play in either game. Today, line swinging in Detroit's favor on account of Rodgers' top three receivers possibly ruled out; however, like Tom Brady, Rodgers doesn't need big name talent to operate at a high level. His rookie receiving corps of Scantling, St. Brown and Moore are on the same page with him. And besides, Rodgers still has TE Jimmy Graham, some quality RBs in Montgomery, Williams and Jones. And besides, #1 receiver Devonte Adams (calf) may be good to go. Packers solid 5-1 ATS off SU win of two TDs or more. And they heat up in October at 12-5-1 ATS. Packers' defense holding up well and should create good field position for Rodgers to operate. Packers the call. |
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10-06-18 | Ohio -11.5 v. Kent State | 27-26 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Ohio U/Kent State 3:30: Bobcats' ground game pretty solid - pounding out 224 YPG - should run up some numbers on a Kent State defense that allows 203 YPG. Bobcats blasted the Flashes last year 48-3 and Kent State remains in a rebuilding mode under first year HC Lewis. Bobcats 4-0 ATS in series. Ohio U the call. |
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10-06-18 | LSU v. Florida +3 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
LSU/Florida 3:30: Florida, with conference revenge as a home dog off a SU dog win is too good to pass up at a perfect 7-0 ATS in that role! HC Mullen has installed a run game similar to that of his old Miss State teams. They're grinding out 5.3 YPC and QB Franks is starting to get in passing rhythm as a result. LSU has started strong but long overdue for klunker and it should come here. Remember, Orgeron is a mere 7-20 SU as a head coach vs winning SEC foes in his career. We'll look for the 9th ranked scoring defense of Florida to turn the table on hot LSU offense. Florida the call. |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas +7.5 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Texas Noon: Tom Herman is becoming one of the great underdog coaches of the new era of football. He's now 10-1 ATS as a dog after beating TCU this season as a 3 point dog. As this revenge scenario unfolds, Herman should clearly have his troops ready to compete at a high level in one of the most fierce rivalries in college football. Oklahoma has had them defensive issues this season (allow 405 YPG) and Texas is moving the ball well under Ehlinger who hasn't thrown an interception over his last 128 pass attempts. On the flip side, Texas defense has been pretty solid, has a ball hawking secondary and able to contain the explosive Sooner offense to a degree. Longhorns have covered 5 straight in this series (all as a dog) and given a touchdown and a hook today, gives us great value with Texas. Sooners just 2-8 ATS on a neutral field and 1-4 ATS off a SU win. Texas the call. |
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10-06-18 | Northwestern +10 v. Michigan State | Top | 29-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Northwestern/Michigan State Noon: Rough three game skid for Northwestern; however, competitive all season including last week vs Michigan when their offense shut down in the second half. Look for Fitzgerald's boys to step up their game here. NW is 12-5 ATS after accumulating less than 275 years the previous week. And NW has covered 4 straight on the Big Ten road and an amazing 7 straight at East Lansing. I like NW's LBs Fisher and Gallagher. And their defensive line led by Joe Gaziano and Jordan Thompson should be disruptive to the Spartan's offensive line which has struggled all season. Northwestern the call. |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
Colts/Patriots 8:20: Short turnaround after Sunday for both teams but Colts got the worst of it. They'll be missing six key players including T.Y. Hilton - Luck's favorite target. Sure, Luck is dangerous off losses as I've noted before; however, Belichick has owned him. Luck sports his worst passing rating (65.1) against New England more so than any other team. And the Colts throw the ball 70% of the time with the worst run game in the NFL at 72 YPG. NE will have Edelman back, Gordon should be fine and Gronk should be good to go. Pat's are 5-0 ATS at home after allow less than 10 points. And they're 14-1 ATS as home favorites vs less than .500 opponent off a SU favorite loss. Patriots the call. |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Broncos 8:15: Broncos should be quite competitive in this spot as a home dog on MNF. This will be the best defense Chiefs' QB Mahomes has faced. He'll feel the heat of bookends Von Miller and rookie Chubb. Miller has had monster games vs KC. I do realize the Chiefs have the best offensive weaponry in the NFL, but Denver's defense should rise to the occasion tonight. On the other hand, the Chiefs sport one of the worst defenses in the NFL and Denver has a strong run game behind Lindsay and Freeman (4th best in league). Case Keenum is overdue to get on track after five interceptions thrown through first three weeks. Broncos sport a pretty strong 20-3 SU mark throughout the first four games of the season over the last six years and we'll look for Denver to keep this one tight. KC may be reading too many great things about themselves nowadays and due for a letdown. It could come here for the Chiefs are 2-12 ATS on the road off back to back SU wins vs .500 or greater division opponent. Denver the cover. |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
Ravens/Steelers 8:20: This series has been extremely competitive where the dog has taken the money in 5 of the last 6. Tonight, Ravens should deliver again. They've covered 5 of the last 6 against the Steelers and are in a triple revenge mode. I do realize top corner Jimmy Smith (suspended) will be missed; however, Ravens, which sport the #1 defense in terms of total yards allowed, will do some sort of bracketing on Antonio Brown. Baltimore had an extra prep day and catching Pitt (off MNF win) on a short prep week. And I don't like Tomlin's 0-7 ATS mark off a SU win. I do like Joe Flacco's reemergence as a standout NFL QB. He finally has a skill supporting cast he's comfortable with in Crabtree, Brown and Snead. And RB Alex Collins is a horse near the goal line. The Ravens are capitalizing on Red Zone opportunities this year (100%) and that doesn't bode well against a Steelers' defense in the bottom tier in total defense and 31st in Red Zone defense since the beginning of 2017. Ravens the call. |
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09-30-18 | Saints v. Giants +3.5 | 33-18 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
Saints/Giants 4:25: At first glance, most pundits all over Drew Brees and the explosive offense of the Saints. Seems like logical call with NYG still missing a few key components defensively (OLB Vernon; CB Apple); however, NYG defense held up pretty well first three weeks by allowing just 20.7 PPG. One of the reasons is that NY is moving the football now. Their total revamped offensive line is springing RB Barkely and as a result, Manning is completing around 70% of his passes. Manning finally is surrounded by a complete supporting cast and he's back in good form. New Orleans' defense has been atrocious and Eli should find his range again in the comfortable confines of MetLife Stadium. I do like the fact NY is 10-2 ATS at home off a SU dog win vs an opponent off SU dog win. Home team 8-2-1 ATS last 11 in this series and I'll ride the trend. |
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09-30-18 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Cardinals 4:05: Steve Wilks failing to have the command of his team like Bruce Arians did; therefore, we'll look for the Seahawks to smell more blood as they go for the jugular for the second week in a row. Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS at Arizona and QB Russell Wilson had some big games vs the Cardinals. In addition, it's surely helping that the run game is starting to cook with Carson (off 100+ rush game). And look for Seahawks' defense to lick their chops against rookie QB Josh Rosen. Arizona offensive line not that bad but Arizona receivers not getting needed separation on routes. Fitzgerald is struggling with hamstring issue and David Johnson cannot get untracked (3.4 YPC). Seahawks add another weapon with Doug Baldwin back and I like it. Seahawks the call. |
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09-30-18 | Texans +1 v. Colts | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Texans/Colts 1:00: Winless Texans have been competitive yet early game setbacks stall them out. We'll look for Watson and his cast of talented skill personnel to rise to the occasion today. Houston is seeking double revenge from getting swept last year in this series. The road team is 5-1-2 ATS. Sure, Colts' Luck is always dangerous off a SU loss but his arm strength is not where it should be and Houston's underachieving defense should finally take advantage of it here. Texans 13-3 ATS in Week 4 and should finally get in the win column. |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State -3 v. Penn State | 27-26 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
09-29-18 | South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 30 m | Show | |
South Carolina/Kentucky 7:30: Kentucky has the potent ground game with Snell that's been working for them but feel Muschamp's boys will cool it down. South Carolina wasn't able to stop Georgia's explosive offense but Kentucky's offense is clearly not as versatile. QB Wilson not nearly a major threat. On the other hand, veteran QB Bentley is off to a good start and surely will be a big test for the Kentucky secondary. Kentucky has gotten the best in this series but SC in a good spot. Kentucky's Stoops a money burning 0-9 ATS following an ATS win of 20+. S. Carolina continues good travel at 0-6 ATS as the underdog in this series (4-1) should deliver. |
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09-29-18 | Utah v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Utah/Washington State 6:00: Like getting points with a Washington State team that's been hot at home (7-0 ATS) and in September (7-0 ATS). Cougars have an outstanding QB in Minshew II (71% completions / 11 TD/ 3 INT). He torched the USC defense last week and should find ways in moving the football against Utah's defense. Sure, Utah has the nation's #1 ranked defense; however, that rank is somewhat misleading with N. Illinois and Weber State on schedule in two of three of their games. The problem with Utah is their offense in which fumbled seven times and two interceptions. Washington State's defense is ball hawking and should be on their game at home. Furthermore, Leach has had Whittingham's number as Washington State sports a 3-0 ATS mark in this series. Cougars deliver. |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M -20.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 47 m | Show | |
Arkansas/Texas A&M Noon:Â This one spells more trouble for Arkansas, which can't find an offensive rhythm. Razorbacks rank in the low tier of the SEC at 15.7 PPG and have also been horrific on special teams; consequently, the Hogs have put their defense in bad field position costing them 33 PPG. A&M has a potent offense under Jimbo Fisher ranking 7th nationally in YPG at 546. The difficulty for Arkansas will be trading points and I don't see that happening. A&M has already battled the upper echelon of the SEC in Clemson and Alabama and covered both. Arkansas has dropped all of their games ATS to lesser competition. Aggies' defense better than the numbers tell. We'll lay the wood with Texas A&M. |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7 v. Rams | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 43 h 49 m | Show | |
Vikings/Rams 8:20: I've been riding the Rams all year (3-0 ATS) but will fade them in this spot. Vikings hungry off a loss and clearly overlooked the Bills. Vikings were a mere 3-14 SU vs AFC East prior to last Sunday; therefore, the Bills shocker was not quite so shocking. Tonight, look for Minnesota to come in with laser focus. Vikings are 20-7 ATS vs an opponent off a SU win and 11-1 ATS vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win; furthermore, 8-0 ATS vs a team .700 or greater off ATS win. Rams struggle on Thursdays at 2-9 ATS and are just 1-4 ATS at home with revenge under McVay. Remember, Rams were rolling last year with four straight double-digit wins before running into the Vikings in a 24-7 loss. Sure, Griffen is a big loss and RB Cook is still questionable; however, bigger losses for the Rams with lockdown corners - Talib and Peters out. And let's not forget that K Zuerlein is out. Value with Vikings, especially now that the line moved to +7.5. |
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
Steelers/Bucs 8:15: Bucs' Fitzpatrick tearing it up and will most likely continue slinging the football tonight. Though, TB run game struggling (2.7 YPC) and should eventually be their downfall. Pitt defense should engage in exotic blitz activity while paying special attention to Evans and Desean Jackson - two key TB receivers. Pitt news about Tomlin losing locker room we've heard before and won't put a whole lot of weight in to that. What I will put weight into is that he's 11-2 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. And Roethlisberger still has the arm and some serious weaponry including a James Washington to add to the already potent arsenal. TB defense is banged up and 31st defending the pass. Pitt is 12-8 ATS as a road dog on MNF and still hungry. Pitt the call. |
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09-23-18 | Cowboys v. Seahawks -1 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
Dallas/Seattle 4:25: Grabbing the desperate for a win Seahawks at a virtual pick here. Seattle has the 12th man backing them in arguably the loudest stadium in the NFL; moreover, LB Bobby Wagner (groin) will be back on the field. Lockett continues to impress and picking up the slack for the injured Baldwin. QB Wilson has been sacked way too much and the blitz happy Cowboys are surely licking their chops. But last week, Wilson moved the offense when picking up the tempo. That could surely be a viable option today against the over-pursuing Cowboys front seven. Sure, Cowboys looked impressive last week against fading Giants but should underachieve under Garrett here. Seattle is 16-5 ATS in Week 3, and 10-4-2 ATS off a SU loss. Carroll will find a way to win here. |
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09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams -7 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Chargers/Rams 4:05: Hard to go against the Rams, which we've had for two weeks and I'm not jumping ship here. Rams' offense is cooking with addition of WR Cooks this year. Yet another speed weapon to add to an already dangerous offensive machine. And defensively, now that Donald has gotten into game shape, he's due to blow up immobile QB Rivers. SD's defense allows 29 PPG and DE Bosa not near ready to play. Rams should rev up the engine around the third quarter again in another win and cover. |
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09-23-18 | Colts +7 v. Eagles | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Colts/Eagles 1:00: I know, the Wentz return is fueling overwhelming support on the Eagles. And surely the Colts have not been a good team off SU wins; however, with the change in coaching staff - Frank Reich - can reset the culture. And the former Eagles' OC surely knows what Eagles' play caller - Pederson likes to run and his tendencies. Colts' defense stepped up its game last week vs Washington and should continue vs a rusty Wentz. Moreover, T Jason Peters (quad) not at his best, the Eagles' receiving corps banged up, and Ajayi and Sproles fighting through injuries. Colts' Luck in rhythm with underrated WR Hilton and getting protection. Colts are 4-0 ATS at Philadelphia and 4-1 ATS in Week 3. New era, new Colts as they cover here. |
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09-22-18 | North Texas -12.5 v. Liberty | 47-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 56-27 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
09-22-18 | Ohio +7.5 v. Cincinnati | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
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