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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame +13.5 v. Clemson | 3-30 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Notre Dame/Clemson 4:00: ND has taken on a pretty tough schedule and answered favorably when needed to. Remember, everyone was writing them off against Michigan but they answered the bell. And now that Ian Book has taken over at the helm, they're more dangerous. Defensively, they're well disciplined and rarely allow explosive plays. They're 10th in scoring defense and will surely run a variety of zone blitzes to test QB Trevor Lawrence. This is the best defense Lawrence and company has faced all season. On the flip side, Clemson's All American DT Lawrence (suspension) is a huge plus for ND's offensive line. He was a major disruptive force. I like QB Ian Book who shows poise and capable of engineering drives. He has a solid line, a consistent RB Williams and a go to target in WR Boykin. We'll look for the disrespected Irish to hang around. |
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12-29-18 | Arkansas State +2 v. Nevada | 13-16 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Nevada/Arkansas State 1:15: Arkansas State has been a stable bowl participant over the last 7 years with four different head coaches. Blake Anderson taking the baton and running with it. His team finished the season strong again off 4 straight comfortable wins. The Red Wolves are now 47-14 SU from Game 6 out over the last 8 seasons. And they have a load of talent to give Nevada trouble. QB Hansen has been accurate (27 TDs/6 INTs) and has a dangerous receiver in Merritt (939 yards) and a productive RB Murray. Defensively they're lead by DE Bingham who has 9 sacks and 18.5 TFLs. And although Nevada is equally dangerous, they have trouble converting on 3rd downs (34%) which the Red Wolves' defense thrives on. Ark State's defense allowed just 34% conversion down the stretch of the season. We'll look for the Red Wolves to keep the Sun Belt Conference shining in bowl games. |
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12-29-18 | Florida +6 v. Michigan | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Michigan/Florida Noon: Michigan blew out the Gators over the last few years - both under the Mcelwain regime. Mcelwain was the receivers' coach for Michigan this season and will step away as the new HC of Central Michigan. Under the new Florida regime, Dan Mullen will bring a tougher squad. A Florida team that resembles his old Mississippi State teams: hard nosed defense and can run the football. The last three games of the season validated that as the Gators compiled 853 combined rushing yards while QB Franks completed 68% of his passes and 7 TDs/0 INTs plus 3 rush TDs. Sure, they'll face an upgrade in competition defensively. The Wolves do control the #1 defense in terms of total yards; however, OSU found the answer on how to dissect Michigan's defense - which was embarrassed Michigan in their season finale. And the Wolve's won't have a pair of noteworthy starters - both DT Gary and LB Bush Jr. are preparing for the NFL and will sit. On the other side of the ball Michigan's starting LT Bushell-Beatty (undisclosed) won't play which leaves QB Patterson vulnerable to the sack happy Gators. We'll look for Florida to hang around in this one. |
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12-28-18 | Iowa State +3 v. Washington State | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-28-18 | Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 | 63-14 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
Purdue/Auburn 1:30: Auburn underachieving under Malzahn late in the year. He's now 2-7 ATS from November 23rd out. And he's lost 4 of his last 5 bowl games SU. On the other hand, Purdue's HC Brohm is a superb 15-2 SU/14-3 ATS from Game 11 out. Purdue has played a tough schedule and surely control one of the great upsets of the year on November 10th against Ohio State. Purdue is 7-1 ATS in non-conference. Brohm has done a great job developing QB Blough who has passed for 3500 yards with a 25/8 TD/INT ledger. He's got great support from his veteran offensive line, productive RB Knox, and dangerous WR Rondale Moore. Moreover, Purdue closes in the red zone executing successfully 44 of 48 times. On the other hand, Auburn brings an underachieving 93rd ranked offense to the field. The Tigers' OC Lindsey bailed to Kansas so Mulzahn will take control of the offense for this game. That's actually a good thing to get Auburn ignited. Purdue's defense nothing to rave about but can make plays. We'll look for Purdue to hold them off.  |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +3 | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
Miami-Fla/Wisconsin 5:15: Miami-Fla eager to avenge Wisconsin after getting embarrassed in last season's Orange Bowl in which Wisconsin turned it up several notches in the second half in a 34-24 come from behind victory. Tonight, no warm weather for the Canes and no All-American DT Willis III. Sure, Miami's got the turnover chain, top rated pass defense, top rated run stop unit etc; however, bottom line is they still managed to lose 5 games. Miami's offense had its share of problems and inconsistent QB Rosier will get the start. He's completed just 53.5% of his passes. Sure, Wisconsin's defense is not the most stable but capable of making plays. And yes, QB Jack Coan, takes off his red-shirt to get the start. He's got a good supporting cast including a veteran offensive line and the Doak Walker Winning RB Jonathon Taylor to help him out. Wisconsin is a sweet 13-1 ATS with rest off a conference game and won their last 4 bowl games. Miami-Fla has dropped 7 of their last 8 bowl games. And with Miami-Fla DC Diaz off to Temple after this, how much energy and trust are his defensive players going to give him here? It's questionable and I don't like laying points with uncertainty. Wisconsin the call. |
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12-26-18 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Spurs 8:35: I've been riding the Spurs during their 7-2-1 ATS run and I will stay on them here. They're obviously playing a great stretch of basketball, especially at home where they're blowing out teams. They even came close to covering in their last game - Saturday on the road against a heating up Houston team. Spurs are 3-0-1 ATS off a SU loss and 4-0 ATS on 3+ days rest. They're 4-1 ATS at home in this series and surely won't take the current class of the Western Conference - Denver - lightly. Nuggets got blown out by the Clippers. Perhaps it is the harbinger for a falloff. Hard in the NBA to sustain the level of high play they've been at. Spurs' DeRozan dishing and scoring well, Aldridge in rhythm and bench guys like Bertans getting it done (14 of 19 from 3 point range). I like the 22-8 ATS home ledger of the Spurs and I'm laying a triple here. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
Broncos/Raiders 8:15: Possibly the last time Oakland plays in the Oakland Coliseum, we'll take Oakland to be emotionally charged for this one. Oakland, which is in limbo as to where they play next year, should put forth a good effort tonight. They're seeking to avenge the Week Two 20-19 loss. Actually, QB Carr has done pretty well in his last 3 games vs Denver - 122.8 QB rating with 4 TDs and 0 INTs. He still has TE Jared Cook (63 Rec / 6 TDs) and Doug Martin out of the backfield. Both teams are similar with pedestrian offensive attacks and certain holes in defenses that can be exploited. Oakland will have to get the run game going to keep Von Miller and Chubb from getting up field too fast. Defensively, Oakland has to shut down RB Lindsay who is approaching 1000 yards rushing. And Oakland has to do a better job at creating timely blitz opportunities to get more sacks; after all, they have a league low 12. One thing I like is that Gruden is a strong 11-2 ATS when less than .500 at home vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. We'll roll with it and take the MNF home dog. |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 49 h 38 m | Show |
Chiefs/Seahawks 8:20: Both teams coming off division losses but I like Seattle at home in this one. The Seahawks, 23-10-1 ATS in December, are prime timers under Pete Carroll at 25-5-1 ATS. Seattle surely has a prime time QB who is at his best when the lights shine brightest. Russell Wilson is having another strong year (3,025 passing yards, 31 TD / 6 INT and, as always, dangerous with his feet). Wilson has WR Baldwin healthy for the first time this season. Him and Lockett should continue to impress. But it's the bruising Seattle run game that should put a major dent in the KC defense to allow Wilson to do his thing. Chris Carson should eclipse 1000 yards for the season tonight vs a KC run stop unit that allows 5 YPC. We'll look for Seattle to run the rock successfully, eat clock and keep the explosive KC offense off the field. Seattle's defense has shown improvement as the season progressed. LB K.J. Wright is back tonight. He'll be limited but surely give his teammates an emotional lift. Chiefs falling off in production at 0-4-1 ATS and vulnerable here. |
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
12-23-18 | Texans v. Eagles -1.5 | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Texans/Eagles 1:00: Foles has shown he is a big momentum QB. If he is on early in games, he has a tendency to stay on and finish. We'll look for him to be on his game today. He has the supporting cast doing the job. The offensive line is holding up well. RB Josh Adams has been a surprise success. And Ertz and Jeffery continue to be great go-to-guys. On the other hand, Houston's QB Watson is running for his life in games. He was sacked 6 times last week and faces the sack happy Eagles (35 on year). And without RB Lamar Miller breaking big runs, more pressure put on Watson. And keep in mind the Texans' top receiver - Hopkins is running on a tender ankle. Texans are notoriously sluggish in December at 1-8-1 ATS and should face trouble against the surging Eagles. |
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12-23-18 | Jaguars v. Dolphins -3 | 17-7 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
12-22-18 | Ravens +4.5 v. Chargers | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +1 | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
12-22-18 | Houston v. Army -5.5 | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
Houston/Army 3:30: Not sure Houston wants to be here; after all, 4 defensive line starters out including All-American - Oliver. That doesn't bode well against the 2nd best running team in the nation. And versatile QB Hopkins can pass too (956 yards / 6 TD/3 INTs). Sure, Houston has the explosive offense that lit up scoreboards all season. But starting QB King is out and left in the hands of freshman QB Tune. Tune completed just 45% of his passes. And don't underestimate Army's defense. Remember, these guys held the #1 offense in the nation - Oklahoma to 28 points. We'll look for Army to keep their long extended drives strategy in play while keeping Houston's offense off the field. |
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12-22-18 | Wake Forest v. Memphis -3.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
12-21-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -4 | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
12-21-18 | Furman +8.5 v. LSU | 57-75 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
analysis to follow... |
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12-21-18 | BYU -12 v. Western Michigan | 49-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-20-18 | Texas Tech v. Duke -8.5 | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-19-18 | Nets -1.5 v. Bulls | 96-93 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
12-18-18 | Lakers -2 v. Nets | 110-115 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
Saints/Panthers 8:15: Carolina has stumbled badly since the midpoint of the season and will need a serious 3-0 revenge motivated streak to have a chance at the playoffs. It starts and ends with New Orleans whom they play in twice over a three week span. I like the Panthers chances here. Carolina has been very competitive all season at Bank of America Stadium. They've covered 8 of the last 11 games at home. Saints were virtually unstoppable most of the season until they ran into Dallas in Week 13. Remember, Dallas was a home dog and staged the blueprint on how to play New Orleans. The Saints proceeded to be sluggish at TB last week in the first half before a few critical errors by the Bucs led to a Saints scoring fest late. Carolina still a confident team and dangerous with McCaffrey as the go-to-guy. Saints have struggled guarding speedy backs out of the backfield this season - one of the weaknesses of their overall staunch defense. Saints are just 1-10 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs an opponent off back-to-back losses. And New Orleans isn't exactly a MNF moneymaker at 2-5 ATS. Carolina is a perfect 7-0 ATS at home off SU/ATS loss vs an opponent off a division game. Carolina has been money at home in December and with triple revenge here plus added bulletin board material after last year's playoff loss, Carolina should get er done. |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Colts | Top | 0-23 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Cowboys/Colts 1:00: Big reason for the Cowboys turnaround that hasn't been discussed. Sure, the obvious is their acquisition of WR Cooper and the retooling of their offensive line. And much of their defensive turnaround should be attributed to Coach Kris Richard who's taken a bigger role in the defensive design, coordination and calling. Last time Colts' QB Luck faced Dallas, he had a miserable game. This Cowboys' defense won't make it easy on him again. Offensively, like the Cowboys quality mix of RB Elliot and now vertical threat Cooper. Colts off huge win over Houston last week could lead to mild letdown here. Colts 5-12-2 ATS off SU win. Cowboys the call. |
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12-16-18 | Cardinals +10.5 v. Falcons | Top | 14-40 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Cardinals/Falcons 1:00: Falcons have no business laying double digits to anybody. Their defense has lots of holes and offensively can't find a run game to fill injured Freeman's shoes. Cardinals still competitive and do have a decent secondary and a DE in Chandler Jones who can get after the QB. Sure, Arizona's offense is pathetic but still has weaponry in Fitzgerald, and RB David Johnson and respectable rookie QB Rosen. Cardinals should get the run game going against an injury ravaged Falcons' defense that allows 5 YPC. Cardinals are a respectable 3-1-1 ATS on the road and sport a 17-8 December ledger. Arizona the call. |
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12-16-18 | Bucs v. Ravens -7.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay/Baltimore 1:00: Baltimore still in the hunt for a playoff birth and should dispatch the fading Bucs. TB is coming off a disappointing loss to New Orleans after an impressive early showing only to collapse late. Baltimore's top tier defense has a nasty bite and should give QB Winston more trouble. Baltimore's QB Lamar Jackson is doing well as the starter. It's also good to know Flacco will be ready too. He shredded TB's secondary last time he faced them in October of 2014 for 300+ yards and 5 TDs. Baltimore the call. |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | 13-14 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Detroit/Buffalo 1:00: Dome teams usually struggle in inclement weather in December and this will be a tough task for Detroit to rainy/cold Buffalo off a win at Arizona last week. Detroit has not had great success in December (44-71 SU). The Lions have a number of injuries they're dealing with and they'll be lucky to get another win this year. Buffalo has a respectable defense and the offense is gradually getting better with QB Josh Allen. Buffalo has won the stat battle in 4 of their last 5 games and barring turnovers here, should deliver including on the score board. |
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12-15-18 | Browns +1.5 v. Broncos | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Browns/Broncos 8:20: Ever since Hue Jackson was fired, Browns' QB Mayfield sports the 3rd best passer rating in the NFL behind only Brees and Mahomes. Browns' OC Kitchens has opened up the offense for Baker and it's working. We'll look for Mayfield to work a Denver defense that's regressed to last in the NFL against the pass since Week 10. Denver has an injury riddled secondary with Chris Harris (fibula), Brock (ribs) and Yiadon (shoulder) on the mend. On the other hand, Browns' defense is opportunistic and DE Garrett can get after the QB. We'll grab the Browns here. |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State | 13-52 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Utah State/North Texas 2:00: Utah State the better team but not sold on them laying this many points. Aside from going to East Lansing and trading blow for blow with Michigan State (notorious for early struggles against the spread at now 2-5 ATS), Utah State has put up lots of points on mostly lightweights - 73 on Tenn Tech, 59 on UNLV, 61 on New Mexico, 62 on San Jose State. Sure, their QB Love is very good in a potent offense. And defensively, they're an opportunistic ball hawking bunch; however, the Mean Green is not a slouch. Remember, North Texas went down to Arkansas in mid September and blasted them 44-17. North Texas has been overvalued ever since on a dismal 1-7 ATS slide. But we get value with them here as a dog with a similar offense led by QB Fine who posts very similar numbers to Love. The Mean Green also has a run game with Torrey behind a veteran offensive line. Defensively, the Mean Green have been very solid as well. I'll gladly take the 8' with North Texas who has a committed HC in Littrell unlike Utah State's Matt Wells who bolted to Texas Tech. |
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12-13-18 | Clippers v. Spurs -2 | 87-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
analysis to follow... |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 43 h 26 m | Show | |
Chargers/Chiefs 8:20: Chargers don't get the support they need at their temporary home in Carson, CA but love playing on the road where they've won and covered 5 of 6 including outright wins at the tough venues of Seattle and Pittsburgh. Sure, the Chargers have lost 9 straight in this series including Game 1 of this season; however, this is the best the Chargers have collectively been in terms of balanced offense - with a run game to help record breaking QB Rivers - and a Top 10 well balanced defense in virtually every category. Yes, KC has the explosive offense and will be tested again with QB Mahomes. But running back position is thin with Hunt (cut) and Ware (hamstring) not on the field. And game changing WR Tyreek Hill (heel and wrist) still on the mend on a short week. And I don't trust the KC defense which ranks in the bottom tier of the NFL in virtually every category. LA has the prime time makeup (5-1 ATS on Thursdays) and like their grit on both sides of the ball. And if RB Gordon can't go, Justin Jackson is more than capable of keeping the run game rolling behind a solid O-Line. |
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12-12-18 | LSU v. Houston -6 | 76-82 | Push | 0 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
LSU/Houston 9:00: Houston is a veteran team with a stable backcourt in Brooks and Davis who can light it up. The Cougars have won 21 straight at home and most of the team hasn't forgotten the two straight losses suffered in consecutive years to the Tigers. Tonight, we'll look for sweet revenge. LSU coming off two comfortable wins against lightweights Grambling and Incarnate Word. This will be LSU's first true road game of the season and they should struggle despite getting back some players. LSU is a money burning 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 road tilts. Houston the call. |
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12-11-18 | Suns v. Spurs -12.5 | 86-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Suns/Spurs 8:35: Suns coming off disappointing OT loss to the Clippers on Monday. Now, they have to travel to a heating up Spurs club that's seeking revenge from their embarrassing 116-96 blowout loss November 14th. Spurs have the offensive juice at home where they've won and covered 3 straight. DeRozan, Gay and Aldridge finally establishing a pretty good rhythm; however, defensively leaves much to be desired. But Phoenix doesn't have the offensive firepower to trade buckets effectively with Booker (hamstring) still on the mend. Home team is 6-2 ATS in this series and Phoenix has not fared well on this floor. Spurs roll. |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
Vikings/Seahawks 8:15: Vikings not quite in a desperation mode but badly need a win over the NFC Wild Card frontrunner - Seahawks. I'm not liking their 2-9 ATS MNF ledger nor am I liking their 1-7 ATS mark vs teams above .500. Vikings inconsistent in their passing game with QB Cousins sacked 30 times. Seahawks' Clark and Reed (16' sacks collectively) are licking their chops. The Seahawks will add some linebacker depth with Kendricks (suspension) now eligible. Seahawks gradually getting back to Pete Carroll defense as the season progresses. They should be fired up in front of one of the loudest fan bases in the NFL. Offensively, the Seahawks are leading the league in rushing (149 YPG) and one of the three headed monsters who run the rock - Carson (finger) is good to go. Also, Baldwin (groin) should be a go. And Russell Wilson is on his game with 11 TDs/0 INTs over the last 4 games. Hard to steer away from Pete Carroll this time of year with a 22-9-1 ATS mark in December; what's more, Carroll is an amazing 24-5-1 ATS in prime time games. Seahawks keep it rolling. |
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12-09-18 | Rams -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 6-15 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
Rams/Bears 8:20: Rams have demonstrated road toughness and should measure up to the task here. Sure, it's freezing cold in Chicago now but plenty of the Rams' roster has experienced cold temperatures including WR Cooks, QB Goff, DT Donald, CBs Talib and Peters, and more. Bears' defense is outstanding and leads the league in forcing turnovers; however, it was exposed last week at NY. And remember, Rams' defense is right behind tied with Seattle in forcing turnovers and can surely sack the QB. Trubisky (shoulder) is back in the fray and he'll try to avoid drop back vertical routes with the flush pocket extraordinaire - Aaron Donald leading the charge. But DE Fowler can handle Trubisky spilling to him. Trubisky is not yet a prime time QB as demonstrated last season vs Green Bay, this season at GB, and this season against Seattle (2 INTs). Edge to the Rams who are at the elite level with Chicago still nipping at their heels. |
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12-09-18 | Lions v. Cardinals +3 | 17-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
Lions/Cardinals 4:25: Cardinals feeling pretty good about themselves after going to historic Lambeau Field and pulling off the big upset. And considering their offensive line injuries, they got the running game going (182 yards!). We'll look for a carry over here. Cardinals' defense on the surface looks bad; however, a closer look reveals a strong third down offense, limited explosive plays, and they get after the QB with 38 sacks! Detroit's offense struggles with virtually no vertical threat, limited running game with K. Johnson out, and poor on third down conversions. Cardinals should lock C Patrick Peterson on Lions' go-to-guy - Golladay and wreak havoc on QB Stafford. Cardinals a sweet 12-2 ATS as a home dog of less than 7 points vs non division teams. With the home team in this series at 12-1 ATS, the dog at 5-1 ATS and Detroit 0-7 ATS in Arizona, I like our chances here. |
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12-09-18 | Giants -3.5 v. Redskins | 40-16 | Win | 100 | 84 h 30 m | Show | |
Giants/Redskins 1:00: Injury ravaged Redskins in a downward spiral and will only get worse from here. Monday, as Mark Sanchez went on the playing field, the Redskins were doomed. Of course, Adrian Peterson provided a glimmer of hope with his 90 yard run; however, it all went to crap from there. Sanchez averaged 4.8 yards per catch on his throws, threw an interception, and game over. With a limited prep week, rash of more injuries along offensive line, and a despondent team morale, Redskins will have trouble staying in this one. Sure, their defense is respectable but definitely not dominant enough to overcome what should be excessive three & outs or turnovers from here out. And the signing of journeyman QB Josh Johnson is, by far, no comforting feeling. Giants are showing signs of life and have the explosive weaponry to put points on the board. This line shifted to NYG (-3) and we'll increase our rating a half a star in the process. Giants the call. |
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12-09-18 | Colts +4.5 v. Texans | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Colts/Texans 1:00: One of my preseason picks to get to the AFC Championship was Houston. At this stage of the season it looks good; however, Colts fighting for their playoff lives and will be eliminated by virtue of a loss here. Sure, at first glance, the spread looks miniscule with Watson and company running like a well oiled machine while the defense is digging in on opponents. Nevertheless, I'm grabbing the points here. QB Luck is a dangerous 24-9 ATS off a SU loss. He should have his favorite weapon - Hilton (shoulder) - available. And TE Ebron (back) should be good to go too. Luck and company looking to avenge their earlier season 34-31 loss. Luck was sacked 4 times in that game and I do realize the Texans' capability of getting to the QB; however, Colts' O-line revamped since then (Nelson LG only remains) and Luck has been protected well since. Indy 4-1 ATS in Houston. Soft spot for Houston which is a mere 2-7 ATS in December. With the Colts 7-2 ATS after scoring less than 15 points, look for Luck and company to amp up their game here. |
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12-08-18 | Mississippi State -4.5 v. Clemson | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Clemson/Mississippi State 4:00: Both teams have taken on relatively light schedules but will side with the better team here in Mississippi State. Bulldogs' HC Howland has historically built his teams on defense and rebounding. He's gradually recruited the tough, gritty student athletes in the program and this should be a solid year for him and the program. He's got a good inside presence with F Reggie Perry and PG Lamar Peters is blossoming in to a really good floor leader with a good shot. On the other hand, Clemson is dangerous with G Marcquise Reed leading the show; however, he sprained his knee Tuesday and he's not going to be at his dangerous mobile self today. Clemson struggled against St. Peter's on the perimeter (4 for 12) and should carry over here as a traveler. Miss State the call. |
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12-08-18 | Houston +3 v. Oklahoma State | 63-53 | Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
Houston/Oklahoma State 4:00: Oklahoma State struggling to take care of the ball (300th in turnover %) and face an in-your-face undefeated Houston team. Houston is somewhat height challenged here but utilized speed and quickness to take out a taller Oregon team earlier this year. Houston's veteran HC Sampson should once again have his men well prepared to handle a wild road assignment. Houston is 5-0 ATS vs a team with a home win % above .600. And they're solid on Saturday at 18-7-1 ATS. Houston has a veteran backcourt in Davis and Brooks playing at high level now and able to withstand momentum shifts at a hostile arena. Cowboys just 1-4 ATS vs AAC and we'll take the points here. |
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12-08-18 | Navy v. Army -6.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
12-07-18 | TCU v. USC +2.5 | 96-61 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Titans 8:20: Titans still in the hunt for a playoff spot by virtue of their dramatic come from behind win over the Jets. Titans have demonstrated prime time winning football this season delivering in impressive fashion at Dallas on November rone5th. Tonight, we'll look for Mariota and company to deliver another season sweep over Jacksonville. Jacksonville last week relied on defensive excellence shutting down Indianapolis. Tonight, could be more difficult even with RB Fournette back in the lineup. Sure, Kessler didn't throw any interceptions and managed the game well enough to allow the defense to win the game; however, tonight, Tennessee offers a more difficult task. Jacksonville has been a poor traveler unless in London. And coach Marrone is a disappointing 1-13 SU / 3-11 ATS off an upset win as a dog. Titans 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home tilts and should deliver. |
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12-06-18 | Maryland +7 v. Purdue | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
Maryland/Purdue 7:00: Maryland has a young but talented team. Yes, they're turning the ball over too much but they execute on both sides of the floor well enough to win. They have two NBA prospects in Fernando and Jalen Smith. They also have enough perimeter shooters to give Purdue trouble; after all, Purdue allows a generous 36.4% from 3 point range (298th in nation). MD is 13-6 ATS on the road against a team with a home win % above .600. Terrapins are 3-1-2 ATS in this series and the road team is 2-0. Purdue has stumbled in Big 10 play at 7-18-2 ATS, and they're not delivering on their home floor at 4-11 ATS. Value with MD. |
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12-04-18 | Bulls +9 v. Pacers | 90-96 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
12-04-18 | Notre Dame +3.5 v. Oklahoma | 80-85 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
Redskins/Eagles 8:15: The bit of extra time should aid the Redskins as they need to mend offensive linemen and get back RB Chris Thompson. In addition, McCoy had some extra prep time as the starting QB. McCoy had a poor game at Dallas on the 22nd with 3 INTs. We'll look for a better performance here against the thin secondary of the Eagles in a pass defense ranked 29th in the NFL. On the other hand, QB Wentz has had big games vs Washington but 'Skins' defense keeping them in games. Need the Redskins' offense to start clicking. It was encouraging to see TE Vernon Davis do damage against Dallas on the 22nd. Now need 'Skins' wideouts to bring their prime time game. Redskins have been a prime time flop so we'll tread lightly here. We will take the points on account of the Eagles' trouble covering this season and injury decimated secondary. Redskins are 3-1 ATS at Philadelphia and in that double revenge mode from getting swept last season. Moreover, they're in a fight to still win the NFC East. |
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12-02-18 | Chargers +3 v. Steelers | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
Chargers/Steelers 1:00: Chargers a dangerous team now that Bosa is back. Like how they get after the QB and are playing well on the road (4-1 ATS). And one of the keys to the resurgence of Phillip Rivers and the Chargers' offense is the run game. Yes, Melvin Gordon (knee) is out but Austin Ekelor (5.8 YPC) can surely carry the load. Steelers always dangerous off a loss but Chargers' HC Anthony Lynn now 8-1 ATS vs an opponent off a SU loss. Moreover, Los Angeles is 10-0 ATS as a dog of less than 5 points vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Chargers stay competitive here. Â |
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12-02-18 | 49ers v. Seahawks -10 | 16-43 | Win | 105 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
49ers/Seahawks 4:20: Seahawks have beaten the 49ers nine straight times going 6-2-1 ATS in the process. Seattle has handled the 49ers at CenturyLink Field at 6-1-1 ATS. 49ers are stumbling down the stretch off two straight losses and will see no post-season. Seattle, however, is good shape to claim an NFC Wild Card birth if they win their remaining five games. Seattle has a tendency to beat the weaker teams; after all, they're 12-1 ATS vs .400 or less opponent with revenge off back-to-back SU losses. Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing and should get back on track today after struggling with the run last week at Carolina. SF offense does have a strong running back in Breida (5.8 YPC) but leading receiver Goodwin (personal) is out and QB Mullens was shaky (2 INTs) at defenseless TB last week. Seattle's stadium is deafening and it won't get easier. We'll lay the wood here. |
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12-02-18 | Vikings v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Vikings/Patriots 4:25: The bye week did New England justice as they got healthier and reloaded for a strong December run. NE is one of the great late season teams with a December ledger of 66-48 ATS including 34-20 ATS at home. Gronk is getting healthier , RB Michel is back in the fray, and QB Brady is in rhythm with his receiving corps. Vikings have not had success vs the Patriots (0-3 ATS) or the AFC East in which they've gone a poor 4-15 SU including laying an egg against Buffalo in Week 3. Patriots usually thrive at home in this price range at this time of year and we'll jump on them here. Â |
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12-01-18 | Fresno State +1 v. Boise State | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-01-18 | Georgia +13 v. Alabama | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-01-18 | Stanford v. California +3 | 23-13 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-01-18 | UAB v. Middle Tennessee State -1 | 27-25 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-01-18 | Texas +8 v. Oklahoma | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-30-18 | Utah +6 v. Washington | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
Utah/Washington 9:00: Just a bit too many points to give to a Kyle Whittingham coached team. Whittingham is always a dangerous dog in big games. And vying for the PAC 12 Title in an attempt to earn a Rose Bowl big qualifies for a big game. Sure, the Utes are without two of their top skill players - QB Huntley and RB Moss; however, backup QB Shelley has managed games well and has a great supporting cast along with RB Shyne who is getting it done. And defensively, the Utes bring another strong Whittingham tough style defense to the field Friday to limit Washington RB Gaskin - who gashed them for 145 yards early in the season. Washington's HC Peterson is definitely a tough go against this time of year, but a bit too many points given tonight. Huskies have been overvalued most of the year. With Whittingham an amazing 12-0 ATS vs an .850 or less winning percentage team off a double digit SU win, we'll take the points. |
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11-29-18 | Saints -7 v. Cowboys | 10-13 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
Saints/Cowboys 8:20: Hard to dismiss the Saints covering nine straight. The offensive juggernaut sports the top offense in the league; now, the Saints' defense has turned it up several notches. New Orleans' defense went from near last in the league in pass defense to #11 over the last three games; furthermore, over the last 5 games they forced 11 turnovers including 8 interceptions. Sure, Prescott, Elliot and now Cooper are big weapons; however, Saints possess the #1 run stop unit in the NFL and the secondary talent of New Orleans is starting to materialize. And offensively, Brees has been virtually unstoppable all season, most notably on prime time (review against Washington). His prime time record in his career is off the chart. For Dallas, they laid an egg on their last prime time appearance at home earlier this month against Tennessee on MNF. And the Dallas defense has had problems stopping opponents on 3rd down (29th in league). Technically, Cowboys are 1-11 ATS at home under Garrett vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Saints should stay hot on the road. |
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11-28-18 | Virginia -3.5 v. Maryland | 76-71 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
Virginia/Maryland 7:30: Maryland erupted on a defenseless Marshall team last Friday. Sure, you can score 100+ on the 310th defense in the nation but face the #2 scoring defense in the nation and Maryland will be searching for answers quick. Virginia just got through locking down another Big 10 opponent in Wisconsin. The Cavaliers are 17-6-1 ATS after allowing less than 50 points. Road team in this series is 4-1 ATS and Virginia should deliver. |
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11-27-18 | Michigan State v. Louisville +5 | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
Analysis coming later... |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
Titans/Texans 8:15: Revenge game for the Texans - who were beaten Week 2. I do realize Houston is a much better team now reeling off 7 straight wins; however, 5 of those by 3 or fewer points. Texans do have a tendency to allow teams back in games. I liked the way the Titans rose to the occasion as a prime time team at Dallas in Week 9. Titans are now 7-0 ATS on MNF. As for Houston, a prime time flop on MNF at 2-10 ATS; of course, QB Watson could easily change that for he is a prime time player. Nevertheless, I like the Titans' red-zone defense which ranks second in the NFL. As for the Texans' red zone offense, they've struggled at 29th in NFL in that role. Sure, Hopkins is a major weapon getting targeted on 37% of receiving yards. But Vrabel should have a well scripted bracketing plan on him. And remember, Watson has been sacked 33 times. Titans can bring pressure and won't make it easy on him. Offensively, Mariota (stinger) is good to go. He did not play in the first matchup and not the easiest guy as a DC to prepare for. We'll take the points with the Titans and their strong run game. |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Seahawks/Panthers 1:00: Seahawks have been competitive in every road game this season and sport a 17-8-2 ATS mark in their last 27 road games vs teams with winning home records. Seattle is right there in the fight for the NFC Wild Card and Carolina is showing signs of fading despite their perfect home record and overall winning record at 6-4. The Panthers got blown out by Pitt two weeks ago on MNF and then coughed up a late lead against the mediocre Lions. Panthers were outgained in rushing yards in both those games and now face the leading rushing team in the NFL. RBs Carson, Davis and Penny are carrying the load well; moreover, QB Russell Wilson is having another superb season (23 TD/5 INT). I'm concerned with WR Baldwin (groin) who is questionable at this time, but Lockett and Moore are doing a fine job getting open. On the other hand, Seattle's defense needs to force more turnovers and address McCaffrey today. Leading WR Funchess will be out but there are plenty of weapons at the disposal of QB Newton. We'll look for Carroll to have his men well prepared and deliver. Seattle a perfect 11-0 ATS as a conference dog off a SU/ATS win. |
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11-25-18 | Giants +5.5 v. Eagles | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Giants/Eagles 1:00: Hard to dismiss the fact that the Giants are a sweet 20-4 ATS as a dog of 5 or more points following a SU win. Furthermore, Giants' HC Shurmur is 8-1 ATS with revenge against an opponent off back-to-back SU losses. And the Eagles have been a money burning 1-11 ATS as a home favorite off a SU loss vs an opponent with revenge. Giants ascending while Eagles falling fast. We'll grab this momentum play as Eli Manning finds more of his old magic. |
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11-25-18 | Browns +1 v. Bengals | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Browns/Bengals 1:00: Browns overdue to win a game in this series after dropping 7 straight to the Bengals. It should come here as we get word that superstar WR A.J. Green (toe) is downgraded to doubtful. He is a difference maker. With Marvin Jones and Eifort already out, QB Dalton has limited weaponry at his disposal. Browns are well rested after coming off big win against Atlanta. Browns are 9-1 ATS as division dogs of 3 or less with revenge. Like the energy Mayfield brings to the field and Chubb is starting to pound the rock. Marvin Lewis is trying to repair what his fired DC Austin screwed up. Bengals are 31st in scoring defense and their season is in balance. We'll look for Cleveland to deliver. |
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11-24-18 | Kentucky -16.5 v. Louisville | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
11-24-18 | Colorado v. California -12 | 21-33 | Push | 0 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
11-24-18 | Michigan -3.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 39-62 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 54 m | Show |
Michigan/OSU Noon: I mentioned before the season started that Michigan had what it took to be a Final Four team; at this time, I still believe that. The Wolves have the #1 defense in the nation vs the pass and in total yards. Sure OSU QB Haskins is putting up big numbers but I'm not sold on him being a big game QB, especially in crunch time. He did help deliver a dramatic come from behind win at Penn State but got an amazing catch and run help from WR Ben Victor. And sure, OSU will see the end zone, their offense (#2 in the nation) is too prolific to stop. But defensively, OSU allows way too many yards; as a matter of fact, the Buckeyes allow nearly 180 more yards per game than Michigan's defense. That will not cut it against the offense Harbaugh has finally spent years building. And he finally landed the QB he wanted in Shea Patterson. Patterson should have a big game against an OSU defense that has sacked the QB only 19 times this season. That's twelve fewer than last year; of course, Nick Bosa's absence hurt them. But bottom line, OSU's defensive problems have resulted in a 1-6 ATS slide for them. I jumped on Michigan early in the week when this line opened; of course it has been bid up to -4' but still worth jumping on. I do realize that OSU is a dog for the first time in 51 games; however, it's well justified here as Harbaugh gets his first victory over OSU with authority! |
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11-24-18 | Florida -7 v. Florida State | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Florida/Florida State Noon: Fla State desperately needs a win to keep from having its first losing season in over 45 years; however, it's not going to happen. Florida is looking to end their drought (0-5 SU) in this series and the battle winner of the first year head coaches will go to Mullen. The Seminoles' offense never got clicking under Taggart. Their run game is producing a meager 2.7 YPC. And that won't cut it vs a staunch Gator defense. Seminoles lack of run game has allowed defenses to tee off on the Blackman and Francois whom collectively got sacked 31 times. Fla's defense has 27 sacks on the year and have a top 20 pass defense. Fla's offense has been gelling with QB Franks, and has a run game. Gators deliver. |
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11-23-18 | Akron v. Ohio -23.5 | 28-49 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Akron/Ohio U Noon: Ohio U still needs a win to play in the MAC Championship and should deliver here. Bobcats dismantled the class of the MAC - Buffalo - on the 14th. The Bulls had no answer for workhorse RB Ouellette (197 yards rushing). Akron does play respectable defense; however, the problem with the Zips is their offensive ineptitude. Last Saturday, on their home field, the Zips couldn't score a TD against the worst defensive unit in the MAC - Bowling Green. Today, on the road, it won't get easier against a hard nosed Ohio U defense that's playing good ball. And Ohio U has won the stat, game and ATS battle in 4 of their last 5 games by a wide margin. Ohio U is playing with revenge from last year's defeat and should roll them. Ohio U 8-1 ATS at home and 9-1 ATS in this series. Akron is a money burning 2-12 ATS as a double-digit conference road dog vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Lay the wood with the Bobcats. |
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11-23-18 | Buffalo -14.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 44-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Buffalo/Bowling Green Noon: Bowling Green feeling pretty good about themselves after back-to-back wins against conference lightweight - Central Michigan and offensive inept Akron. Today, back to reality for them as Leipold's boys run them ragged. The Bulls, coming off an embarrassing defeat to a very good Ohio U team, should have it together today. Buffalo is 5-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Buffalo has serious offensive weaponry with tall/versatile QB Jackson, vertical threat Anthony Johnson, possession receiver Osborn, and hard running RB Patterson. Sure, statistically, BG has a good pass defense; however, that is because teams can easily run on them. BG's run-stop-unit is allowing 6 YPC! We'll look for a heavy dose of RB Patterson to set up a big scoring fest. We'll look for a usually solid Bulls' defense to tighten up and unleash on BG QB Doege. He's pretty good but his offensive line has issues protecting him and Buffalo should get back their defensive mojo here. BG HC Jinks just 2-7 ATS as a conference home dog. Buffalo the call. |
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11-23-18 | Eastern Michigan -13.5 v. Kent State | 28-20 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Kent State Noon: Big fan of Eastern Michigan which is vying for its 7th win of the season. Chris Creighton has done a great job in his 5th year as HC bringing respectability to a team that's been a MAC doormat for years. This year, the Eagles have a stable offense behind a veteran offensive line; moreover, they have the 35th ranked defense in total yards in the nation. The strength of their defense is in their secondary for they're the 5th ranked pass defense in the nation. Remember, these Eagles upset Purdue September 8th in West Lafayette. The Eagles travel well sporting a 16-2 ATS road ledger. And they're 10-1 ATS on the road vs a less than .500 conference foe off a SU loss. Kent State's defense couldn't stop anybody this season and should have trouble here. Eastern Michigan rolls. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints -12 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
Saints/Falcons 8:20: Hard to go against an offensive machine that's been virtually unstoppable for most of the season. And Atlanta does not have the defensive depth to hang. Moreover, New Orleans' defense has been playing very well as of late - stopping the run, able to rush the passer, and a ball hawking secondary. Saints the call. |
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11-22-18 | Redskins +7 v. Cowboys | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
Redskins/Cowboys 4:30: Cowboys gathering steam in the NFC East but not willing to lay a TD against a tough division rival. Redskins have been decimated with injuries along their offensive front, and now QB Alex Smith (leg). Enter career backup Colt McCoy who has done a nice job when called upon. He's got some talented receivers and AD still has some juice left in him. Defensively, Washington can stall out teams their comparable with. New Orleans and Atlanta had playmakers who Washington couldn't stop; however, Dallas has less of them. Sure, Elliot and Amari Cooper and very good, but the Redskins' secondary matches well against everyone else. Dallas is a mere 1-7 ATS in home games on Thursdays. And they're 0-4 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games. With the road team in this series 7-2 ATS, we'll look for Washington to hang around. |
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11-22-18 | Bears -2.5 v. Lions | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Bears/Lions 12:30: Sure, the Lions have performed well on Thanksgiving in recent years but got to go with the dynamic defense of Chicago to pull this one out for the Bears. Bears will be without QB Trubisky but Chase Daniel is a veteran back up and much like a coach. He knows the offense well and should do fine. Bears do have a run game behind Howard and Cohen to help him out. On the other hand, Detroit is banged up with RB Kerryon Johnson (knee) on the shelf, Tate off to Philly and Marvin Jones Jr. (knee) out. Stafford has been sacked 30 times thus far this season hand that number should go up after Mack and company are through with him today. Detroit 0-10 ATS as a dog on Thursdays. Bears the call. |
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11-21-18 | Lakers -9 v. Cavs | 109-105 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to come later... |
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11-21-18 | Pelicans v. 76ers -3.5 | 120-121 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Analysis to come later... |
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11-20-18 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -17 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
analysis to follow... |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan | 21-28 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Rams 8:15: Both offenses in the top tier of production and surely the defenses will have their hands full tonight. KC's Mahomes is difficult to rattle on the road (18/3 TD/INT) but he will face the most fierce defensive line yet. If Donald and Suh aren't enough, throw into the mix DE Dante Fowler (acquired from the Jags a few weeks ago) and pressure should come. Rams' defense a bit more sound in all areas of defense including their light but quick linebackers - built more like hybrid LB-defensive backs. And the Rams' corner rotation of Peters, Hill and Shields rise to the occasion more games than not. On the other hand, KC's run stop unit has been shaky (5.1 YPC) but can get after the QB (2nd in NFL in sacks). I do, however, like the offensive line of the Rams which is well disciplined. They've consistently given QB Goff the needed time to pass and pave the way for super star RB Gurley and very good backup Malcom Brown. Goff will be without Kupp (ACL) but has dangerous weapons Cooks, Woods. And don't be surprised if McVay goes to TEs Higbee and Everett to take advantage of the KC linebackers which struggle defending pass. Ultimately, the 41 years of NFL experience for Wade Phillips should pay off as he dials up a way to limit Mahomes, while the Rams' offense pounds the rock and check down in passes to Gurley and the TEs to keep the explosive weaponry of KC off the field. We'll give LAR the edge. |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +8 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Eagles/Saints 4:25: Everybody and their brother on the Saints after 7 straight covers and blowout win over Cincinnati. And yes, Brees is on fire, RB Kamara is a matchup nightmare, and the Saints' run stop unit is menacing. Nevertheless, too many points to an Eagles team coming off a loss. Eagles, 7-3 ATS off a SU loss, beaten by an average of 4.4 PPG in their 5 defeats with none greater than a TD. Pederson 5-0 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off a double-digit SU win. Yes, Eagles' secondary is thin with CB Darby (ACL) out; however, CB Douglas is capable of rising to the occasion and CB Sidney Jones is back in action. Also keep in mind the strength of the Eagles defensive line which can add Bennett and rookie Sweat to the mix. Saints without OT Armstead, could be an attacking point for Philadelphia. And remember, QB Wentz got in a groove last week and should torch a Saints' pass defense that has given up nearly 300 YPG - worse than the Eagles. And with Saints' killer - Golden Tate now in the mix, Eagles should be in this one. Tate, while with Detroit, caught 35 passes for 485 yards against the Saints. Finally, with New Orleans at 0-7 ATS off a double-digit SU win vs a less than .500 non-division opponent, Eagles the way to go here. |
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11-18-18 | Bucs v. Giants -2.5 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Bucs/Giants 1:00: Giants off a rare win on Monday and eager to stay in the win column. We'll bet on them here. QB Manning flashed some of that old magic with a come from behind win and the winning momentum should continue. Liked the way the offensive line held up for Manning. TB doesn't have the fierce pass rush among the defensive line. Sure, former Giant - Pierre Paul vows to exact some revenge on his former team for releasing him but not sure that will happen. TB defense is injury ravaged and have to go to practice squad to fill positions. Bucs give up 410 YPG and a staggering 6.7 yards per play. Manning and his plethora of weaponry should ring up some more TDs. Bucs have a league worst minus 19 turnover margin. Fitzpatrick had 5 turnovers in his last two games. Sure, he'll ring up lots of yardage but getting in the end zone has been difficult as of late...TB did win this one 25-23 on 10/01/17. Pat Shurmur a sweet 8-1 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off back-to-back losses. Giants deliver. |
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11-17-18 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +7 | 41-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
11-17-18 | Bowling Green v. Akron -6.5 | 21-6 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
11-17-18 | Colgate +11.5 v. Army | 14-28 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
11-17-18 | Northwestern +3 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +7.5 | 28-18 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
Memphis/SMU 9:00: SMU a dangerous home dog at Gerald J. Ford Stadium where they've covered three straight in that role. Memphis has a porous defense that gives up the big play and SMU can sure ring up explosive plays with QB Hicks. Sure, Memphis will get their share of points here; after all, their offense is well balanced and difficult to contain. Nevertheless, SMU is a momentum team and on a mission to go bowling. SMU a sweet 7-0 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points off back-to-back SU wins. Memphis has had difficulty covering on the road at 1-4 ATS. We'll grab the points in what should be a shootout. |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
Green Bay/Seattle 8:20: Both of these teams are clinging to playoff lives and the loser will all but mathematically be eliminated. Seahawks in better shape here. They're getting back Chris Carson (hip) who will rotate with Penny, who came off a breakout game last week vs the Rams. In addition, WR Baldwin shook off the rust of an extended injury last week with a solid game and poised to have another here. Packers' defense banged up with top linebackers Perry and Martinez hobbling. And for the Packers' offensively, loss of Cobb, who reinjured hamstring, takes away another key target for QB Rodgers. Seattle is seeking revenge from last year's 17-9 loss at GB. Home team in this series is 6-1 ATS. Furthermore, Seattle QB Wilson has never lost three straight games in the NFL. And hard to fade Pete Carroll in prime time. As coach Seattle, Carroll is a sweet 22-5-1 ATS in that role! |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo +2.5 v. Ohio | 17-52 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
Buffalo/Ohio 7:00: Buffalo can seize their moment in time and create the most wins in the history of the program along with capturing the MAC East Crown and an invite to Detroit for the MAC Championship. Bulls have the weaponry and the coaching to deliver. They have few weaknesses and play hard. Ohio U is similar in that HC Solich gets the best out of his players and he does have talent; however, the one area of Ohio U that's a concern is the secondary. With top C Jalen Fox out the last six games and a pass defense ranked in the bottom tier in the MAC, trouble looms. Buffalo has the vertical threat Anthony Johnson, possession receiver Osborn, and TE Mabry have been dominant. QB Jackson has a big arm and he's mobile; furthermore, the run game behind Patterson and Marks has been rolling all year. Buffalo 8-0 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs an opponent off a SU loss. Bulls the call. |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers -3 | 27-23 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
Giants/49ers 8:15: I try to make a legitimate case for the NYG to win/cover this but can't. Giants have been a prime time flop especially against non-division foes on MNF at 0-9 ATS. These teams met last year a Levi Stadium where the 49ers prevailed 31-21. Giants are 2-12 ATS on the road with revenge on MNF. And sure, New York is well rested but don't think they can take advantage of it for they're 10-20 ATS off a bye-week. You can build a case for SF rested; after all, they thrashed Oakland on November 1st in what was a mere scrimmage to them. And the Giants' November ledger doesn't offer much hope either; after all, they're a money burning 11-23-1 ATS this month. 49ers, however, have been money on MNF at 26-6 ATS. QB Mullens was well schooled by Shanahan in his first NFL start. Giants' defense not that much better than the Raiders; consequently, we'll look for Mullens to stay sharp on this home field. Giants just fall short on the offensive end with a patchwork offensive line that hinders their progress. SF the call. |
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11-11-18 | Seahawks +10 v. Rams | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
11-11-18 | Chargers -10 v. Raiders | 20-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Chargers/Raiders 4:05: Chargers now have a run game and it's taking Phillip Rivers and the Chargers to new heights. Melvin Gordon is having a great year running behind a well schooled offensive line. The Chargers are producing about 5.2 YPC on the ground. And throw in a healthy WR Keenan Allen to the mix and Rivers will pick you apart. Raiders' defense a patchwork quilt as Gruden releases players and brings in new ones. Oakland hasn't recorded a sack since Week 6 and that spells danger to the Raiders' secondary with the explosive Chargers' offense now in rhythm. Chargers are 3-1 ATS on the road and actually prefer to play on the road. Have you seen their home field in Carson? Usually more than half the people in the 35,000 capacity stadium are travelers. Chargers should deliver here. |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Colts | 26-29 | Push | 0 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Colts 1:00: Jaguars feeling the heat after many had them as an AFC frontrunner. Now they're sitting in the bottom of the AFC South with Indy after 4 straight losses. On a good note, the Jaguars are coming off a bye in which they are 7-1 ATS; moreover, RB Fournette (hamstring) is back today to drive a struggling run game and help alleviate pressure on QB Bortles. Actually, Bortles has had some big games vs Indy's defense and I wouldn't be surprised if he does well today. Indy's coming off two wins against lightweights - Buffalo and Oakland. Jaguars still have a staunch defense that can bring heat on the QB. Remember, they had 14 sacks in 2 games against the Colts last year and are 6-0 ATS in this series. We'll take the points. |
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11-11-18 | Patriots -6 v. Titans | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 46 m | Show |
11-10-18 | California +4 v. USC | Top | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
11-10-18 | Washington State -6 v. Colorado | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
11-10-18 | Illinois v. Nebraska -17 | 35-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
11-09-18 | Fresno State -2 v. Boise State | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Fresno State/Boise State 10:20: Fresno followed up last year's strong season with another monster year. And despite the defections along the defensive line, the Bulldogs reloaded to form one of the strongest stop units in the MWC allowing just 4.5 YPP! Sure, the blue turf is tough to play on for travelers and Boise is a rare home dog; however, QB Rypien has his struggles and he hasn't faced this tough of a defense since October 6th when SD State went into Boise and won. Fresno's QB MCMaryion is razor sharp 20 TD/3 INTs and getting great protection from his line (5 times sacked on year). He's got dangerous targets with TE Rice and WR Johnson. Boise's secondary not the same without Pierce; moreover, top tackler LB Whimpey (ACL) injured last week won't serve them justice. Fresno the call. |
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11-09-18 | Louisville v. Syracuse -20.5 | 23-54 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
Louisville/Syracuse 7:00: What goes around comes around; consequently, Bobby Petrino is now experiencing his share of beatings at the hands of teams he used to run the score up on. Tonight, his counterpart, Dino Babers, who's Orangemen are ranked 13th in the nation, will surely stick it to Petrino - who thrashed Syracuse 56-10 last November. Petrino's Cardinals are in a rebuilding mode after huge defections to the NFL and graduations. Instead of a Heisman Trophy winner (Lamar Jackson) running the show, he's got interception prone Jawan Pass 7 (TD/10 INTs) who sports a shaky 54.5% completion rate and not much help in the run game. And defensively, the Cardinals rank 125th in scoring defense. Syracuse has a talented offense behind QB Eric Dungey and should find the end zone frequently. If the Orangemen can keep the ball out of the hands of L'ville's speedster Hassan Hall (999 all purpose yards), they'll cover this easily. L'ville a poor 1-7 ATS on the road vs AP Top 15 ranked opponents. Syracuse gets sweet revenge in their last home game. |
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11-08-18 | Panthers +3.5 v. Steelers | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
Panthers/Steelers 8:20: Steelers a bit more beat up going into this one on a short week after a hard scrum with division rival Baltimore. Carolina, on the other hand, took care of lightweight TB for their third straight win and cover. Carolina has cleaned up its game since a few turnovers at Washington. Panthers had zero turnovers during their 3 game win streak. Panthers key stars - Newton, Olsen, McCaffrey healthy and C Kalil (ankle) good to go. Pittsburgh more beat up. On the surface their defense appears to have tightened against the run; however, at a closer look, 5 of the 7 teams they've played rank in the bottom tier in rushing yards. Carolina is in a virtual tie with the LA Rams as the #1 rushing team at 5.2 YPC/144 YPG. Favorites between 3' to 10 sport a money burning 21-49-1 ATS mark since 2014 when coming off a game in which they could not force a turnover and facing an opponent off a game committing less than 2 turnovers. Panthers present a much more aggressive opportunistic defense and should deliver. They're 9-0 ATS as a dog vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Carolina the call. |
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11-07-18 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4 | 87-89 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
11-07-18 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3.5 | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Toledo/N. Illinois 8:00: Not a fan of laying half points with a touchdown or a field goal; therefore, if you could bid down to -3 with NIU, that would be comfortable. If you can't, we'll lighten up here. I still believe NIU is the way to go in this important MAC showdown. NIU can clinch the MAC title with a win while Toledo needs a win here plus help from other teams over the next two weeks. NIU has a much better defense than Toledo. The Huskies' defense is anchored by Antonio Jones-Davis and Sutton Smith. And corner McKie had a breakout game at Akron last week with 2 INTs including a pick six. Defensively, Huskies' tough run stop unit should be able to limit the powerful ground game of Toledo. And Rockets' QB Eli Peters, who's not as good as starter Guadnagi, did appear in 7 of 9 games with the Rockets; however, he's completed just 53.7% with 11 TDs/6 INTs. And he's not a run threat. On the other hand, the Huskies' offense has gradually heated up over the course of this half of the season. QB Childers has completed 57% of his passes and is a running threat. He's got a good supporting cast with a veteran O-Line, a hot RB Tre Harbinson off a 169 run performance last week at Akron, and capable receivers in Wesley and D.J. Brown. Huskies are 4-1 ATS following a 450+ yard performance and 10-4 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing. I do realize the Rockets are a strong road team; however, they're just 2-5 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Throw in revenge from last season's 27-17 loss at Toledo and we got a decent play with NIU. |
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