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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-24-20||Kings v. Bulls -2||Top||98-81||Loss||-104||5 h 53 m||Show|
The Sacramento Kings are sliding with losses in six straight games and will try to avoid falling to 0-4 on a five-game road trip when they visit the Chicago Bulls on Friday. The Kings put up a good fight in a 118-113 overtime setback at Miami on Monday but could not muster the same effort in a 127-106 loss at Detroit on Wednesday.
Sacramento allowed the Pistons to shoot 53.4 percent from the floor and committed 28 personal fouls, which led to a 37-of-44 night at the line for the Pistons.
The Bulls continued their recent trend of trading wins and losses by following a loss at Milwaukee with a victory at home over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday. Chicago, which is 4-4 over its last eight games.
Chicago earned a 113-106 win at Sacramento on Dec. 2 as LaVine and Markkanen combined for 48 points.
Kings are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Back the Bulls at home.
|01-24-20||Celtics +2 v. Magic||Top||109-98||Win||100||4 h 52 m||Show|
The Boston Celtics have barely been tested in back-to-back wins, but they have some injury concerns heading into Friday night's visit to the Orlando Magic. Forward Jayson Tatum suffered a groin injury and did not return during Wednesday's 119-95 win over Memphis.
The Magic returned home from a 3-3 road trip to drop a 120-114 decision to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday. Orlando prides itself on its defense while holding opponents to an NBA-low 104.3 points, but Oklahoma City had few issues scoring Wednesday night while shooting 60.5 percent - a high for a Magic opponent this season.
Boston had 31 assists in Monday's 139-107 rout of the Los Angeles Lakers and it tied a season high with 32 versus Memphis, with 11 players recording at least one.
Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.
I look for the Celtics to keep their momentum going in Orlando.
|01-19-20||Packers +7.5 v. 49ers||Top||20-37||Loss||-107||29 h 44 m||Show|
Aaron Rodgers had a downright bad game in his previous encounter against the San Francisco 49ers, and that effort resulted in the last time the Green Bay Packers fell short on the scoreboard. Rodgers and the second-seeded Packers look to avenge a lopsided loss in Week 12 when they visit the top-seeded 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.
The two-time NFL MVP was far from loose in the previous meeting, as he was sacked five times and limited to just 104 yards despite completing 20 passes in Green Bay's 37-8 setback to San Francisco on Nov. 24. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan wasn't interested in reliving that contest, telling reporters that the game had gotten away from the Packers and forced them to change their offensive approach.
I just don’t see that happening again in this matchup as the Packers have put that game well behind them.
Packers are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games. 49ers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points and are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
I see the Packers keeping this game closer than most people think. Take the points.
|01-19-20||Titans +7.5 v. Chiefs||Top||24-35||Loss||-115||25 h 10 m||Show|
The Kansas City Chiefs came up one win short of advancing to the Super Bowl a year ago, denied by the New England Patriots in a overtime defeat. The second-seeded Chiefs attempt to take that next step in front of their home fans when they square off with the sixth-seeded Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon in the AFC Championship Game.
Kansas City earned a return trip to the title game with a dominating performance last week, erasing a 24-point deficit in a 51-31 blowout of Houston -- its seventh straight victory since a loss at Tennessee back in Week 10.
Bruising back Derrick Henry and the Titans are trying to run the table and beat the top three teams in the AFC while bidding to become the third No. 6 seed to advance to the Super Bowl.
Tennessee is one win away from the Super Bowl thanks to the legs of Henry, the league's leading rusher who rumbled for 182 yards versus the Patriots before gashing Baltimore for 195.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid, in his seventh conference championship game, is 1-8 in his career against the Titans.
Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City. Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
While KC may pull this game out there is just too much value here at over a touchdown to not back the Titans.
|01-13-20||Clemson +6 v. LSU||Top||25-42||Loss||-105||7 h 35 m||Show|
LSU 34 – Clemson 30
This could be one of the all time greats if the Title game lives up to the high expectations. I say it does with QB Joe Burrow and the Tigers from LSU getting the close win but no cover in an all time classic.
|12-26-19||Spurs +7 v. Mavs||Top||98-102||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
Star point guard Luka Doncic will likely return from a four-game absence when the Dallas Mavericks host the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday. Doncic, who suffered an ankle injury against the Miami Heat on Dec. 14, went through a full practice on Tuesday and displayed he is nearly ready to rejoin the Mavericks.
San Antonio has won five of its past eight games, including a stunning 145-115 road win over the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday. The Spurs registered a season high for points and also shot 67.4 percent from the field, which is the highest mark in the NBA this season. San Antonio made 19-of-22 shots to start the game while dismantling the Grizzlies and power forward LaMarcus Aldridge was superb with a season-best 40 points on 17-of-25 shooting to go with nine rebounds and five assists.
Dallas is looking to move on from an embarrassing 110-107 road loss to the Toronto Raptors as it became the first team to lose a game it led by 30 points since 2009.
Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Mavericks are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Back the Spurs plus the points!
|12-26-19||Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7||Top||0-14||Win||100||3 h 20 m||Show|
Miami (Fla.) stumbled to the finish line of the regular season, closing out a disappointing campaign with consecutive ugly defeats at local rival and non-power 5 school Florida International (30-24) and ACC foe Duke (27-17), which had come into the game with just two conference victories. As a result, Miami is fighting just to finish the season above .500 and avoid losing to a Group of Five team for the second time in three games.
Recent history is not on Miami's side as the Hurricanes enter their Independence Bowl matchup with Louisiana Tech on Dec. 26 in Shreveport, La. sporting a dismal 1-8 mark in their past nine bowl games after last year's 35-3 debacle against Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Miami's bowl woes may be compounded by Louisiana Tech's expected home-field advantage since the game will be played in its home state. The Bulldogs, in Skip Holtz's seventh season as head coach, are in position to record the school's first 10-win season since 1984 and they have won five bowls in a row - tied with Wisconsin for the longest active streak in the nation - averaging 42.4 points and 471 yards in those contests.
The erratic play at quarterback certainly hampered the Hurricanes all season, but so did a weak offensive line along with a ground game that ranks dead last in the ACC (116.5 yards per game), and it will be without injured starter and leading rusher DeeJay Dallas (693 yards). Defense has long been a cornerstone for the Hurricanes but, despite ranking 13th in the country (307.6 yards against), the unit was far from dominant - too often failing to get critical stops late in games and surrendering 57 points in the final two contests.
Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Hurricanes are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in December and are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.
Back the points with Louisiana Tech in a game they can win outright.
|12-25-19||Clippers +2 v. Lakers||Top||111-106||Win||100||7 h 5 m||Show|
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to try and play when the Los Angeles Lakers clash with the visiting Los Angeles Clippers on Christmas Day at the Staples Center. James is dealing with a thoracic muscle strain in his back while Davis has an injured right knee as the Lakers attempt to halt a season-worst three-game slide.
James missed his first game of the season on Sunday due to the injury and he and Davis are listed as questionable for the second version of the Los Angeles showdown. The Clippers prevailed 112-102 on Oct. 22, the opening night of the season, despite forward Paul George being sidelined.
George is thrilled to be playing in front of his family on Christmas Day and understands all the hype surrounding the contest. Leonard (knee) sat out Sunday's game against Oklahoma City and should be well-rested for the Lakers. Leonard scored 30 points in his Clippers' debut in the season-opening win over the Lakers. He’ll have another big game tonight.
Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Clippers are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Take the Clippers to grab the win.
|12-19-19||Rockets v. Clippers -5||Top||122-117||Loss||-109||10 h 27 m||Show|
The Houston Rockets pulled off an epic comeback earlier this week and they hope the momentum carries over into Thursday's road contest against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Rockets set a franchise record by overcoming a 25-point deficit on Monday to post a 109-107 home win over the San Antonio Spurs.
Houston's defense was nowhere to be found while allowing 72 first-half points to the Spurs but it clamped down in the second half to give up just 35 and set the stage for the stunning comeback win.
Los Angeles won five of its past six games and rolled to a 120-99 win over the visiting Phoenix Suns on Tuesday. Paul George scored 24 points while fellow forward Kawhi Leonard and stellar sixth man Lou Williams each added 20.
Star guard James Harden scored 28 points against San Antonio but was just 10-of-29 shooting, including a porous 4-of-17 in the opening half.
Williams (calf) and point guard Patrick Beverley (concussion) both returned from two-game absences to play versus Phoenix and the latter scored nine points while playing his typical pesky defense.
Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Take the Clippers to get the win and cover at home.
|12-19-19||Lakers v. Bucks -4||Top||104-111||Win||100||8 h 57 m||Show|
The two teams that share the best record in the NBA will possess the same floor when the Milwaukee Bucks host the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. Both clubs lost their most recent game with Milwaukee seeing an 18-game winning streak reach an end and Los Angeles having its seven-game victory streak halted.
The Bucks fell two games shy of matching the franchise mark for consecutive victories set during the 1970-71 season when they lost 120-116 to a Dallas Mavericks' squad missing star guard Luka Doncic on Monday, but their attention quickly turned to the Lakers.
Los Angeles had its 14-game road winning streak halted Tuesday when it succumbed 105-102 to the Indiana Pacers with star power forward Anthony Davis (ankle) sidelined. He is questionable tonight. Los Angeles F Kyle Kuzma (ankle) could miss his fifth straight game.
The Bucks have defeated the Lakers a franchise-record five straight times.
Lay the small number at home with a big effort by the Bucks.
|12-15-19||Bills v. Steelers -1||Top||17-10||Loss||-103||33 h 34 m||Show|
The Buffalo Bills had a three-game winning streak come to an end in a 24-17 loss to the AFC-best Baltimore Ravens last week and are staring at a tough two-game road stretch as they try to lock up a playoff spot. The Bills will try to bounce back and get one step closer to clinching a playoff spot when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
The Steelers are surging with wins in three straight and seven of the last eight games and face their own tough stretch to close out the season with trips to New York and Baltimore after taking on Buffalo.
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is making great strides in his second season but struggled against a tough defense last week, completing 43.6 percent of his passes in the loss. He’ll have similar problems vs. the Steelers defense.
Pittsburgh quarterback Devlin "Duck" Hodges became the first undrafted rookie to win his first three starts with last week's 23-17 triumph over Arizona and is completing 71.3 percent of his passes. Hodges could have more weapons available this week with running back James Conner (shoulder) and wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) both returning to practice.
Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
While defense should rule the day here in Pittsburgh, I like the Steelers to Steel a home victory on Sunday night.
|12-15-19||Rams -1 v. Cowboys||Top||21-44||Loss||-105||29 h 38 m||Show|
The Los Angeles Rams are two games ahead of the Dallas Cowboys, but they face an uphill battle to make the playoffs with three games remaining. Dallas, meanwhile, is sitting below .500 and mired in a three-game losing streak but still controls its postseason destiny entering Sunday afternoon's matchup against the visiting Rams.
Los Angeles' postseason chances appeared bleak following a 45-6 drubbing by Baltimore in Week 12, but it rebounded with big victories over Arizona and Seattle to move within one game of Minnesota for the sixth seed in the NFC.
After managing only 35 points in a three-week stretch, Los Angeles erupted for 62 in the back-to-back victories behind Jared Goff, who threw for 717 yards and four touchdowns in that span. Wideouts Cooper Kupp (77 catches) and Robert Woods (71) both have a chance to go over 1,000 yards on the season this week.
Todd Gurley ran for a score in each of the past two games and had 16 carries for 115 yards and a touchdown in last season's 30-22 playoff win over Dallas as the Rams piled up a staggering 273 yards on the ground. The Rams rank eighth overall on defense, allowing 325.5 yards per game.
Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Cowboys are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Two teams going in opposite directions and I’ll back the Rams to win a tough game in Dallas.
|12-15-19||Jaguars v. Raiders -6.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-109||28 h 19 m||Show|
The Raiders’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, but they have an excellent opportunity to keep them alive when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday in what will be the final game played at Oakland Coliseum. The Raiders play their final two regular-season contests on the road and are moving to Las Vegas for the 2020 season.
Jacksonville has lost five straight after a 45-10 drubbing against the Los Angeles Chargers last week.
Oakland is not in a favorable position to make the postseason, sitting two games out of the second wild card with three to play, but I feel them will come out hungry on offense and put up points vs. the sad Jags defense. The Jaguars’ run defense has been struggling of late, allowing more than 200 yards three times during the five-game skid and narrowly avoiding that fate last week by allowing 195 yards on the ground.
The Jaguars have lost five straight by at least 17 points, the worst such stretch by any team since the 1986 Buccaneers.
Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
I’ll look for a full effort by the Raiders to win going away.
|12-15-19||Vikings -1 v. Chargers||Top||39-10||Win||100||28 h 18 m||Show|
The Minnesota Vikings look to move closer to a playoff spot when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Minnesota is one game ahead of the Los Angeles Rams in the battle for the NFC's second wild-card spot and stands one game behind the first-place Green Bay Packers in the NFC North.
The Chargers have been eliminated from playoff contention but that hasn't prevented Vikings coach Mike Zimmer from worrying about veteran quarterback Philip Rivers, who passed for 314 yards and three touchdowns in last Sunday's 45-10 rout of the host Jacksonville Jaguars. He’ll have a much tougher test vs. the Vikings defense that has allowed 14 or fewer points on five occasions.
Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has thrown 21 touchdown passes against two interceptions in the past nine games. The Vikings' running back/receiver combo of Dalvin Cook (1,108 rushing yards) and Stefon Diggs (997 receiving) are on the verge of becoming the first club duo to each gain 1,000 since 2009.
Minnesota star receiver Adam Thielen (hamstring) said Thursday he is hopeful of playing after missing four straight games and five of the past six.
Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 15 and are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. Chargers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
I’m backing the Vikings on the road.
|12-15-19||Texans v. Titans -3||Top||24-21||Loss||-108||25 h 16 m||Show|
The Tennessee Titans went from 2-4 to a tie at the top of the AFC South and are winners of four straight games. The Titans will try to keep the win streak alive when they host the Houston Texans on Sunday - the first of two meetings between the division rivals over the last three weeks of the regular season.
Tennessee, which sandwiches a game against NFC South-leading New Orleans in between the matchups with Houston, is averaging 37.5 points during the four-game winning streak and is 6-1 since turning to Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback.
Houston had first place in the South all to itself before a disappointing 38-24 home loss to the Denver Broncos last week and has a date at Tampa Bay in Week 16 before hosting the Titans in the finale. Houston was coming off a 28-22 victory over New England when it came out flat against the Broncos and fell into a 21-0 hole less than 19 minutes into the game.
Tannehill can become a free agent after this season and is putting up record-setting numbers since getting a chance to open up the offense in Tennessee. Tannehill is the second quarterback in NFL history (Aaron Rodgers, 2011) to produce a passer rating of 130 or higher while completing at least 75 percent of his passes in three straight games and joined Russell Wilson (2015) as the only QBs with at least two passing TDs and a passer rating of 125 in at least four consecutive contests.
Texans are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in December.
The home team took each of the last six meetings and I like the Titans to keep their momentum going here at home.
|12-15-19||Seahawks -6 v. Panthers||Top||30-24||Push||0||25 h 16 m||Show|
The Carolina Panthers have nothing to play for but star running back Christian McCaffrey does as the squad hosts the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. McCaffrey has 1,220 rushing yards and 726 receiving yards as he attempts to join Roger Craig (1985) and Marshall Faulk (1999) as the only running backs to accumulate 1,000 in both rushing and receiving yardage in the same season.
The Seahawks had a five-game winning streak snapped with last week's 28-12 loss to the Los Angeles Rams and are one game behind the first-place San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West while holding the top wild-card spot.
Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown 26 touchdown passes while being intercepted just five times leading his team to a winning season.
Carolina has dropped five straight games, leading to the firing of ninth-year coach Ron Rivera earlier this month with Perry Fewell being named interim coach for the remainder of the season. QB Kyle Allen has thrown 12 interceptions over the past seven games.
Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games and are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games in December. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC. Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings while the favorite is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
The Seahawks have won seven of the 10 regular-season meetings and I expect them to get the road win by a touchdown or more.
|12-15-19||Dolphins +3.5 v. Giants||Top||20-36||Loss||-120||25 h 15 m||Show|
The Miami Dolphins' season spiraled out of control from the onset with seven straight losses amid talk of possible tanking for a high pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Dolphins answered that demoralizing stretch with a respectable 3-3 mark heading into Sunday's road contest against the New York Giants, who are mired in a franchise high-tying nine-game losing streak.
Miami will hope for better results when it plays its second consecutive contest at MetLife Stadium, as its offense was limited to a franchise-record seven field goals by Jason Sanders in a 22-21 setback to the New York Jets in a game they should have won.
Eli Manning is expected to be under center for a Giants team that mustered 29 yards in the second half of a 23-17 overtime setback to Philadelphia on Monday. The start could serve as the final home game of Manning's career with rookie Daniel Jones working his way back from an ankle injury.
Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win and are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Giants are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Miami is on a 7-2 spread run and I’ll take over a field goal with the Dolphins having a shot to win outright.
|12-12-19||76ers v. Celtics +2||Top||115-109||Loss||-113||8 h 12 m||Show|
The Philadelphia 76ers look to bring their home success with them on the road when they visit the Boston Celtics on Thursday Night on TNT. The 76ers are a superb 13-0 at home but are a shaky 5-7 in away games as they meet a Boston team that’s red-hot with its own 10-0 home mark.
Philadelphia has won 11 of its past 13 games overall during a home-heavy stretch (nine at Wells Fargo Arena) and forward Tobias Harris likes the fight displayed in back-to-back wins over strong teams such as the Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets.
Boston had a four-game winning streak halted with Wednesday's 122-117 road loss to the Indiana Pacers despite star guard Kemba Walker pouring in a season-best 44 points. I look for Walker to keep the hot hand tonight.
76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Celtics are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home underdog.
76ers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Boston and I look for the Celtics to get the money.
|12-08-19||Titans -3 v. Raiders||Top||42-21||Win||100||41 h 12 m||Show|
The Tennessee Titans are a different team with Ryan Tannehill at the controls as they visit the desperate Oakland Raiders on Sunday. Tennessee has won five of six games since Tannehill replaced an ineffective Marcus Mariota as the starter, including a 31-17 victory at Indianapolis last week that kept the Titans within striking distance of the AFC South title or a wild-card spot.
Tennessee running back Derrick Henry has picked up his game with Tannehill under center, rushing for 724 yards and seven touchdowns in the last six games.
Tennessee is one game behind first-place Houston in the AFC South with two meetings left against the Texans and in a virtual tie with Pittsburgh for the final wild-card berth. The Raiders have been outscored 74-12 in consecutive road losses to the New York Jets and Kansas City, and must win to have any shot at the post season.
Tannehill (12 touchdowns, four interceptions this season) has completed 74.6 percent of his 59 passes with six TDs in his last three games with the club averaging 36 points during that span. Henry, whose 496 yards and five rushing scores since Week 10 lead the NFL, can become the fifth player in league history to total 150 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown in four consecutive contests. He will do well vs. the weak Raiders secondary.
Running back Josh Jacobs, who became the first rookie in franchise history to rush for 1,000 yards with 104 against Kansas City last week, revealed that he has been playing with a fractured shoulder. That’s not good for an already banged up team.
Titans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Raiders are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 14. Favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings and the Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
I like the Titans to continue their push to a playoff spot with a road win.
|12-08-19||Steelers -2.5 v. Cardinals||Top||23-17||Win||109||41 h 11 m||Show|
A makeshift crew has catapulted the Pittsburgh Steelers to six wins in seven games, and they'll try to stay hot Sunday with a visit to the Arizona Cardinals. Behind their third starting quarterback of the season, Devlin Hodges, and a stout defense that has allowed an average of 15.9 points during the 6-1 stretch, the Steelers enter Week 14 holding down the last wild-card spot in the AFC.
They'll try to take another step toward a ninth playoff berth under head coach Mike Tomlin when they give Hodges another start in Arizona.
Hodges will be matched up with another rookie in Kyler Murray, who is coming off the most difficult game of his young career in a 34-7 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Murray threw for 163 yards with one interception and was sacked six times as Arizona lost its fifth straight game.
Hodges threw for 211 yards in last week's 20-13 win over Cleveland and the one score went to wideout James Washington, who has 209 receiving yards and a pair of TDs over the last two weeks.
Linebacker Bud Dupree led another solid defensive effort last week with six tackles, 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble and a pass deflection for a unit that ranks fifth in the NFL in total defense (317.2 yards allowed per game) and sixth in scoring defense (18.8).
Murray is going through his first heavy bout of losing football and the former Heisman Trophy winner is hoping to use last week's embarrassment as motivation to get better. I don’t see that happening vs. this very good Steelers defense.
The Steelers have won the last three meetings, beginning with their 27-23 triumph in Super Bowl XLIII.
Take the Steelers as the small road favorite.
|12-08-19||Chiefs +3 v. Patriots||Top||23-16||Win||102||41 h 10 m||Show|
The New England Patriots' bid for a perfect season slipped away in Week 9 and now they have lost their grip on the top overall seed for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. The Patriots will try to rebound from their second loss in four weeks and clinch their 11th consecutive postseason berth against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon.
New England set an NFL record with its 17th consecutive 10-win season but it is only one game ahead of Buffalo in the AFC East after dropping a 28-22 decision at Houston on Sunday night that was not as close as the score indicated.
The Chiefs suffered a pair of narrow defeats to New England last season, including a 37-31 defeat that kept them from reaching the Super Bowl, but they have chance to win the AFC West title and end the Patriots' 18-game home winning streak.
Mahomes threw for a touchdown and ran for another in last week's 40-9 drubbing of Oakland -- the third time in four weeks he failed to eclipse 182 yards passing -- but he torched New England for 647 yards and seven scores versus two interceptions last season.
New England's offense continues to sputter and only two late touchdown passes from Brady last week enabled the team to surpass 20 points for the first time in the last four games. While Brady has 18 TD passes against six interceptions, he has barely completed more than 50 percent of his passes over the last three games and has not registered a quarterback rating of at least 100.0 since Week 5 at Washington.
Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December and are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Behind a solid defensive effort, I like the Chiefs plus the points.
|12-08-19||Colts +3.5 v. Bucs||Top||35-38||Win||100||38 h 44 m||Show|
A year ago, the Indianapolis Colts made a late surge to earn a playoff spot, winning their final four regular-season games. The Colts hope to kick off another strong finishing stretch Sunday when they travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, another team fighting for its playoff life.
Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread as the Buccaneers are three games out of the second wild card with four weeks left in the regular season. The Colts’ odds aren’t quite as long - they’re one game out of wild-card position and two back of Houston in the AFC South - but with losses in two straight and four of their last five, Indianapolis needs to turn things around quickly.
Indianapolis’ first five losses were by seven points or fewer, but last week’s 31-17 home loss to Tennessee was its most-lopsided of the season. The Colts outgained the Titans by 99 yards but were derailed by three turnovers, which has been a recurring theme during their rough patch. The Colts hope to have leading rusher Marlon Mack back Sunday after he missed the past two games with a broken hand.
Tampa Bay had seemingly found itself in a shootout every week before the defense turned in its best performance of the season in a 28-11 win at Jacksonville last week. The Buccaneers gave up a season-low 242 total yards and matched a season high with four takeaways. I don’t look for that to happen again this week.
Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Buccaneers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 14 and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings and I expect them to cover here with an outright win very possible.
|12-08-19||Dolphins +5.5 v. Jets||Top||21-22||Win||100||38 h 43 m||Show|
The New York Jets have been extremely generous to previously winless teams this season, notably handing the Miami Dolphins their first victory last month and putting Cincinnati in the win column last weekend. The Jets aim to snap a four-game skid in the series on Sunday when they host the Dolphins in East Rutherford, N.J.
The Jets rebounded from their 26-18 setback to Miami on Nov. 3 by scoring 34 points in three straight games before dropping a 22-6 decision to the Bengals, marking the fourth time they have been held to six or fewer this season. Miami, in turn, erupted for season-high totals in points and yards (408) in a 37-31 victory over Philadelphia last Sunday.
Journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a season-high 365 yards and three scores last week to match the touchdown total he had in the previous encounter with New York, with which he played in 2015-16. Former first-round wideout DeVante Parker continued his torrid stretch with seven catches for career-high totals in yards (159) and touchdowns (two) against the Eagles. I think he has some success on Sunday.
Jets Safety Jamal Adams is expected to miss the first game of his career with an ankle injury while fellow former Pro Bowler C.J. Mosley became the 15th Jet to land on injured reserve with an ailing groin. Sam Darnold, who overcame a bout of mononucleosis earlier in the season, turned a season-high 48 passes against the Bengals into just a 58 percent completion rate and 71.4 passer rating -- totals that were his second-lowest of 2019.
Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Jets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC East. Dolphins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
I’ll call a close game with Miami getting the cover.
|12-08-19||49ers v. Saints -1.5||Top||48-46||Loss||-115||38 h 42 m||Show|
The New Orleans Saints have already clinched a postseason berth and wrapped up a division title, but they have loftier goals in mind with four games remaining in the regular season. The Saints have the inside track on the top seed for the NFC playoffs and can take another step closer toward the goal against the visiting San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon.
The 49ers have lost two of four -- both on last-second field goals -- following an 8-0 start to fall into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, although the Seahawks own the tiebreaker.
San Francisco's top-ranked defense, allowing league lows of 250.9 yards overall and 134.3 yards passing, held up well against a Baltimore offense that had averaged 45 points in its previous three games. The NFC leader in rushing at 148 yards per game, the 49ers received 146 yards and a touchdown from Raheem Mostert last week. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has registered a passer rating of at least 110.2 in five of the last six games. He will have a much tougher time this week vs. the stout Saints defense.
Brees, who missed five games due to a thumb injury, had one of his lowest outputs of the season with 184 yards passing and a touchdown at Atlanta. Wide receiver Michael Thomas also had a relatively quiet performance with six receptions for 48 yards but he was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month. Running back Alvin Kamara has not rushed for a touchdown in seven games but had 31 catches in his last four contests. Cameron Jordan was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after recording 4.0 sacks for a unit that ranks third against the run (88.6 yards).
Brees has a 100-plus passer rating in 10 of his last 11 at home.
49ers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 vs. NFC. Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
In what should be the game of the week I’ll back the Saints in a home win behind their defense.
|12-08-19||Ravens v. Bills +6.5||Top||24-17||Loss||-110||38 h 40 m||Show|
The Baltimore Ravens sit atop the AFC on the strength of an eight-game winning streak and became the Super Bowl favorites after knocking off the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 last week. The Ravens will try to push the winning streak to nine in a row when they face the playoff-hopeful Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
Buffalo was flying under the radar before earning a 26-15 win at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day and owns the third-best record in the league behind Baltimore and New England.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson maybe on his way to his first MVP award and owns 14 touchdown passes without an interception over the last five games after posting his fourth game with at least 100 yards passing and 100 yards rushing last week.
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was part of the 2018 draft class along with Jackson and is stamping his own mark on the league as a passing and rushing threat. Allen owns 16 passing TDs and eight rushing scores in 2019 and, like Jackson, recorded one of each without an interception in a key win last week.
Ravens are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Feeling is here the Bills defense hangs tough and behind the home crowd they get the cover.
|12-07-19||Wisconsin v. Ohio State -15.5||Top||21-34||Loss||-109||23 h 7 m||Show|
Second-ranked Ohio State, which is atop the College Football Playoff rankings, looks to remain perfect when it faces No. 10 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game on Saturday in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes capped a dominant regular season with a 56-27 rout of 18th-ranked Michigan to extend their winning streak against the Wolverines to eight games, which is the longest in the rivalry, and they hope to clinch a spot in the CFP by knocking off the Badgers (No. 8 CFP) for the second time, following a 38-17 victory on Oct. 26.
Wisconsin fell two games behind No.15 Minnesota following its loss to the Buckeyes before reeling off four consecutive wins, including a 38-17 victory over the Golden Gophers in the regular-season finale, to book their ticket to the conference championship game.
Wisconsin fell two games behind No.15 Minnesota following its loss to the Buckeyes before reeling off four consecutive wins, including a 38-17 victory over the Golden Gophers in the regular-season finale, to book their ticket to the conference championship game. The Badgers are making their sixth Big Ten title game appearance, but have lost their previous three trips to Indianapolis, and hope to avenge a 27-21 loss to Ohio State in 2017.
Jack Coan completed 15-of-22 passes for 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the win against Minnesota to help the Badgers capture their fourth Big Ten West Division title in the last six years. Jonathan Taylor accounted for 115 yards and three touchdowns against the Golden Gophers to move within 68 yards of becoming the seventh player in FBS history to reach 6,000 rushing yards (including bowl games). Wide receiver A.J. Taylor (leg), cornerback Rachad Wildgoose (lower body), and offensive lineman David Moorman (leg) are all questionable for Saturday's clash.
Heisman hopeful Justin Fields threw for 302 yards and a career-high four touchdowns as the Buckeyes won their fourth consecutive game in Ann Arbor for the first time in program history. J.K. Dobbins was named the Big Ten Player of the Week after rushing for a career-high 211 yards and four touchdowns against the Wolverines.
Buckeyes are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Buckeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Big number to lay but I’m willing to do so with Ohio State.
|12-07-19||Georgia v. LSU -6.5||Top||10-37||Win||100||19 h 4 m||Show|
Georgia’s defense has answered just about every challenge it has faced this season, but the Bulldogs' playoff hopes hinge on conquering LSU’s high-powered offense in Saturday’s SEC championship game in Atlanta. Who wins out when the Tigers have the ball likely will determine who wins the conference title, considering No. 1 LSU is second in the nation in scoring offense at 48.7 points while the No. 4 Bulldogs rank second in scoring defense at 10.4 points.
The LSU offense centers around senior quarterback Joe Burrow, who is the first player in SEC history to pass for 4,000 yards (setting a conference record with 4,366 yards) and at least 40 touchdowns (44).
The Bulldogs are one of two teams in the nation (Clemson) to not allow more than 20 points in a game this season, ranking second nationally in rushing defense (71 yards per game)
Linebacker Monty Rice leads the Bulldogs with 79 tackles while LeCounte owns 53 stops (4.5 for loss) and two interceptions, and Georgia has only surrendered 11 passing touchdowns in 11 games. Junior running back D’Andre Swift ranks fourth in the SEC in rushing yards (1,203) with seven touchdowns, and his 100.3 average rushing yards is fifth in the league, but he left last week’s 52-7 rout of Georgia Tech with a left shoulder injury. Junior quarterback Jake Fromm has passed for 2,385 yards and 21 touchdowns against only three interceptions, but will be without receiver Lawrence Cager (ankle surgery) while leading receiver freshman George Pickens is suspended for the first half Saturday.
Burrow passed for 352 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 50-7 rout of Texas A&M, and he ranks second nationally in passing yards, touchdowns, passing yards per game (363.8) and passing efficiency (203). Sophomore receiver Ja’Marr Chase leads the country with 17 touchdown receptions and is second with 1,457 yards, while junior receiver Justin Jefferson is 16th with 1,092 yards and tied for fifth with 13 touchdown receptions. The Tigers defense comes in off its best performance of the season, holding Texas A&M to 169 yards of total offense while recording six sacks and a safety.
Burrow passed for 200 yards and a touchdown while Edwards-Helaire rushed for 145 yards as the Tigers beat Georgia 36-16 last season. LSU has scored 74 offensive touchdowns this season, 57 coming on drives of three minutes or fewer.
Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Tigers are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Look for LSU to win this game by 10 or more and move on to the playoffs.
|12-07-19||Miami-OH v. Central Michigan -6||Top||26-21||Loss||-116||15 h 56 m||Show|
It's a surprise matchup for the conference title when the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks face the Central Michigan Chippewas in the 2019 MAC Championship Game on Saturday. Neither team has made the title game since 2010, when the RedHawks won it all. Both teams went 6-2 in the conference this season, with Miami (Ohio) losing 41-27 to Ball State last week after having already clinched the East Division. Central Michigan defeated Toledo last week and has won six of its last seven games.
CMU's offense has seen a stunning turnaround from last season, when the unit ranked 128th in the nation in total offense. The Chippewas rank 26th, averaging 453.2 yards per game, and score 32.8 points per contest. They are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight games after scoring more than 40 in their previous game, and the offense can generate points on the ground or through the air.
Chippewas are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
|12-07-19||Baylor +9.5 v. Oklahoma||Top||23-30||Win||100||15 h 55 m||Show|
Baylor had a chance to halt Oklahoma's run of conference dominance and continue its unlikely path to the College Football Playoff three weeks ago until the Sooners broke their hearts with a historic comeback. The eighth-ranked Bears hope to exact a measure of revenge and end No. 6 Oklahoma's bid to make a fourth CFP appearance in five years Saturday when the teams meet in the Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
The race to the regular-season conference title appeared to be all but over less than 20 minutes into the teams' Nov. 16 meeting in Waco as Baylor raced out a 28-3 lead and took a 21-point advantage into intermission, but Oklahoma outscored the Bears 24-0 in the second half to stage the largest comeback victory in school history.
Baylor, which is positioned seventh in the most recent CFP rankings, wrapped up its regular season last weekend with a 61-6 thumping of Kansas as the defense forced six turnovers. The CFP No. 6-ranked Sooners ended a stretch of four consecutive one-score games with a 34-16 win over archrival Oklahoma State last weekend and likely needs losses from Georgia and Utah as well as a convincing victory this weekend in order to make the playoff.
Junior Charlie Brewer, who threw for two scores and ran for two more in the first meeting against the Sooners, is one of five quarterbacks nationally with at least 20 passing TDs and 10 rushing TDs and trails only Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts (202.26) among Big 12 signal-callers in passer rating (153.38).
Hurts, who ranks third in FBS in total offense (380.3) and second among quarterbacks in rushing yards (1,217), joined Tommy McDonald in 1956 as the only players in school history to record a passing, rushing and receiving touchdown in the same game versus the Cowboys.
The Bears rank ninth in FBS with a Big 12-high 40 sacks and need one more for the most in a single season in program history.
Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. Sooners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Oklahoma.
This game stays close with Baylor having a shot at the outright win.
|12-04-19||Wolves v. Mavs -4||Top||114-121||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
Luka Doncic is playing like a MVP for the Dallas Mavericks as he is leading his in to wins. He will look to carry the load again when his club hosts the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday. Doncic had 33 points and a career-high 18 rebounds in Tuesday's 118-97 road win over the New Orleans Pelicans as Dallas won for the eighth time in nine games.
Minnesota is opening a four-game road trip and is coming off a dreadful 115-107 home loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday. "Very disappointing," Timberwolves coach Ryan Saunders told reporters. Rookie guard Jarrett Culver is averaging 9.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists but he is shooting a frigid 40.5 percent from the free-throw line.
Doncic won Western Conference player of the month honors for October/November after averaging 30.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and 9.6 assists over an 18-game span.
Timberwolves are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 2 days rest. Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
The Timberwolves have won seven of the past 10 meetings I like the Mavs in a big win.
|12-04-19||Suns v. Magic +2.5||Top||114-128||Win||100||6 h 24 m||Show|
The Phoenix Suns started off the season as overrated in my opinion. The Suns bounced back from a very bad homestand to start a four-game road trip on the right foot Monday in Charlotte, where the Suns rode a 23-point performance by Kelly Oubre Jr. to a 109-104 win over the Hornets to improve to 4-3 on the road.. They'll try to make it two in a row away from home when they visit the Orlando Magic on Wednesday.
The Magic are coming off a 127-120 win at Washington on Tuesday, their second straight road victory after opening 0-7 away from home. Evan Fournier led the way with 31 points in Orlando's highest-scoring output of the season.
Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Magic are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
The Suns are inconsistent on the road. I’ll back the Magic as a small home dog.
|12-01-19||Patriots -3 v. Texans||Top||22-28||Loss||-115||31 h 1 m||Show|
Despite a pair of close calls the past two weeks, the New England Patriots remain tied for the best overall record in football and set an NFL mark last week by posting their 17th consecutive season with 10 wins. Holding the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Patriots have a chance to wrap up a playoff spot when they visit the Houston Texans on Sunday night.
Texans coach Bill O'Brien, who has his team sitting atop the AFC South, was a former assistant with the Patriots and knows what he is up against, losing all five matchups against mentor Bill Belichick.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-1): Defense continues to carry New England, which scored a combined 30 points in back-to-back victories over Philadelphia (17-10) and Dallas (13-9). Playing in miserable, rainy conditions, Tom Brady completed a season-worst 45.9 percent of his passes in last week's win over Dallas while going with two rookies at wide receiver, although Julian Edelman had eight catches for 93 yards -- the sixth time in seven games he had at least seven receptions. Sony Michel had 85 yards rushing on 20 carries but has yet to hit 100 this season. The Patriots lead the league in points allowed (10.6) and interceptions (20) while ranking second versus the pass (158.0 yards).
ABOUT THE TEXANS (7-4): Like New England, Houston was shredded at Baltimore before rebounding with a 20-17 win over Indianapolis in a showdown for division supremacy as Deshaun Watson threw for 298 yards with two scores and one interception. Speedster Will Fuller returned from missing more than a month with a hamstring injury and had seven receptions for 140 yards while DeAndre Hopkins hauled in a pair of touchdown passes and has 57 catches over his past seven games. Carlos Hyde has been solid if unspectacular, rushing for at least 60 yards in six of seven games to move within 164 of 1,000. The Texans are vulnerable through the air, ranking 25th at 259.3 yards per game.
Patriots are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Texans are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Back the Patriots with a great effort on the road.
|12-01-19||Raiders v. Chiefs -10||Top||9-40||Win||100||27 h 7 m||Show|
The stakes will be high when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Oakland Raiders in the latest installment of the storied rivalry Sunday. The Chiefs need a fifth straight win over the Raiders to preserve their one-game edge atop the AFC West standings.
Kansas City is coming off a bye week following a 24-17 road victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs’ high-powered offense sputtered a bit in that game, but the defense was able to force four turnovers and hang on. The Chiefs would effectively take a three-game lead in the division with a win, because they would sweep the season series - they won 28-10 at Oakland in Week 2. The Raiders had won three straight to get back in the thick of the division race before an embarrassing performance in a 34-3 loss at the New York Jets last week.
ABOUT THE RAIDERS (6-5): Oakland was beginning to look like a legitimate playoff contender until last week’s blowout loss to the Jets. The ground game has been solid behind Josh Jacobs, who needs 43 rushing yards to become the first rookie in franchise history to rush for 1,000, and quarterback Derek Carr has had a steady, if unspectacular, season. Oakland’s defense has struggled to stop the pass, which could be a problem against a pass-happy Chiefs' offense.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-4): Kansas City’s offense was off its game against the Chargers, managing a meager 310 total yards, but facing the Raiders could help them get back on track. They torched Oakland for 467 total yards in Week 2 as Patrick Mahomes threw for 443 yards and a season-high four touchdowns. The Chiefs’ secondary had put together a good stretch before giving up 345 yards through the air against the Chargers, and Kansas City has struggled to stop the run.
Raiders are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Chiefs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. AFC West. Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City.
Lay the big number with the Chiefs at home.
|12-01-19||Chargers -3 v. Broncos||Top||20-23||Loss||-115||27 h 6 m||Show|
Philip Rivers is going through a miserable stretch as the visiting Los Angeles Chargers attempt to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the AFC West-rival Denver Broncos on Sunday. Rivers has thrown seven interceptions over the past two games - both losses - and speculation is heating up on whether he will be back with the team in 2020.
Denver could unveil a new starting quarterback as second-round pick Drew Lock is practicing after returning from a preseason thumb injury.
ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-7): Rivers has one more touchdown pass than interceptions (15 to 14) but has passed the 3,000-yard mark for the 14th consecutive season despite the recent evidence that his skills are on the decline. Safety Derwin James (foot) could be activated from injured reserve to make his season debut and the Chargers badly miss the player who had 105 tackles, 3.5 sacks and three interceptions, and made the Pro Bowl as a rookie last season. Defensive end Melvin Ingram (5.5 sacks this season) has moved into fourth place in franchise history with a career count of 47.5, passing legendary Junior Seau (47 from 1990-2002).
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-8): The possible move to Lock comes after Denver had 134 yards of total offense in last week's 20-3 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the club's lowest output since 1992. Second-year running back Phillip Lindsay (708 yards, five touchdowns) figures to get a lot of carries as he had a season-best 114 against the Chargers earlier this season.
Chargers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Road team is 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 meetings and are 9-2-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Denver.
Take the Chargers on the road.
|12-01-19||49ers +6 v. Ravens||Top||17-20||Win||100||24 h 44 m||Show|
The San Francisco 49ers are tied for the best record in the NFL but no team is hotter than the Baltimore Ravens, who have ripped off seven consecutive victories and outscored their last three opponents by a staggering 135-26 margin. The 49ers' top-ranked defense will try to slow Lamar Jackson and Co. when they visit the sizzling Ravens on Sunday.
San Francisco rebounded from its lone loss to Seattle with back-to-back wins, including a 37-8 mauling of Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay on Sunday night. "They're playing at the highest level right now," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said of the 49ers.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (10-1): San Francisco may not rival the defensive numbers of the New England Patriots, but it ranks No. 1 overall in overall yards (248.0), passing yards (136.9) and sacks (44.0), with ends Arik Armstead and rookie Nick Bosa registering 10.0 and 8.0, respectively. The passing game received a huge boost in Sunday's win when star tight end George Kittle returned from a two-game injury absence and snagged six catches for 129 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has registered a passer rating of at least 111.2 in four of his last five games with 13 touchdowns and four picks during that span. Matt Breida returned to practice Wednesday to join a three-headed backfield with Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (9-2): Jackson was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after throwing for five scores and rushing for 95 yards in the 45-6 wipeout of the Los Angeles Rams, becoming the third player overall and first since Tom Brady to win the weekly honor four times in a season. Jackson is tied for the league lead with 24 scoring passes and needs 124 yards rushing to reach 1,000 on the season. Mark Ingram surpassed 100 yards on the ground for the fourth time last week and has amassed 12 touchdowns (nine rushing) while tight end Mark Andrews and rookie Marquise Brown each have six scoring receptions.
I look for San Francisco to keep this close with a chance of winning outright.
|12-01-19||Titans +1.5 v. Colts||Top||31-17||Win||100||24 h 43 m||Show|
The winner of Sunday's AFC South showdown in Indianapolis between the Colts and Tennessee Titans keeps its division title hopes alive while the loser falls behind in a crowded wild-card race. Indianapolis and Tennessee sit one game behind South leader Houston, which hosts New England on Sunday, and are two of four 6-5 teams fighting for a wild-card spot in the AFC.
The Colts have won three straight meetings after a 19-17 victory at Tennessee in Week 2 behind three touchdown passes by Jacoby Brissett.
ABOUT THE TITANS (6-5): Ryan Tannehill is 4-2 since taking over at quarterback from Marcus Mariota with 10 touchdown passes against four interceptions. Wideout A.J. Brown had four catches for 135 yards and a touchdown in last week's 42-20 victory over Jacksonville and leads AFC rookies with 581 receiving yards. Linebacker Jaylen Brown had a career-high 15 tackles last week while Kenny Vaccaro is the only safety in the league with a sack in each of the last seven seasons after recording one versus Jacksonville.
Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Back Tennessee as the road dog.
|12-01-19||Jets -3 v. Bengals||Top||6-22||Loss||-100||24 h 42 m||Show|
When the New York Jets hinted at a playoff push earlier this month, it seemed to be an overly ambitious goal for a team that started 1-7. That goal is now somewhat attainable for a Jets squad that carries a three-game winning streak into a visit to the winless Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
ABOUT THE JETS (4-7): While Darnold has the offense clicking, the defense has been dominant during the winning streak by allowing an average of 238 total yards -- 48.3 on the ground -- while setting a rejuvenated tone in the locker room. Safety Jamal Adams remains the catalyst with 6.5 sacks, nine quarterback hits and two forced fumbles during the winning streak.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (0-11): Veteran Andy Dalton will resume starting quarterback duties this week after sitting out the last three games to give rookie Ryan Finley a chance. "It was not an easy decision any time we've had to make it, which has been twice this year," head coach Zac Taylor told reporters of the move. "But it's in the best interest of the football team to do this and get Andy back out there." Dalton threw for 2,252 yards in his eight starts with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, while Finley had 474 yards and completed only 47.1 percent of his passes in his three-game audition.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 13. Bengals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The Jets are playing much better Football and I’ll back them on the road.
|11-30-19||Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State +14||Top||34-16||Loss||-113||32 h 31 m||Show|
Oklahoma already knows it has a spot locked up in the Big 12 Championship game, but there are no shortage of reasons why extending its dominance over Oklahoma State one more year is important to this season. The seventh-ranked Sooners attempt to keep their relatively slim chances of making the College Football Playoff alive Saturday when they visit the 21st-ranked Cowboys in the 114th edition of "Bedlam."
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (10-1, 7-1 Big 12): Jalen Hurts ran for 173 yards versus the Horned Frogs to boost his season total to 1,156, moving him past Kyler Murray (1,001 yards in 2018) for second place in school history for the most rushing yards by quarterback. Sophomore Kennedy Brooks piled up a season-high 149 yards on 25 carries against TCU and enjoyed perhaps his finest game as a collegian in last year's matchup with the Cowboys, running for 165 yards and three touchdowns on 15 attempts.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (8-3, 5-3): After entering the game with 11 receptions for 82 yards for the season, Hubbard set career highs with seven catches and 88 receiving yards against the Mountaineers while adding 106 yards on the ground to top 100 yards rushing for the ninth consecutive game. With starting quarterback Spencer Sanders (thumb) out for the remainder of the regular season, Dru Brown, a graduate transfer from Hawaii, finished 22-of-29 for 196 yards and two touchdowns in his first start for the Cowboys. Safety Kolby Harvell-Peel has broken up 10 passes in the last four contests and ranks third in FBS in passes defended (13); he has also recorded four of his five interceptions (fifth best in FBS) over the last three games.
The Sooners failed to score 34 points for the first time in 21 games last weekend, falling two games shy of matching Oregon's 23-game run from 2011-12.
Sooners are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. Cowboys are 9-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Take the points with Oklahoma State.
|11-30-19||Oregon State +20 v. Oregon||Top||10-24||Win||100||27 h 27 m||Show|
Oregon has won 10 of the past 11 Civil War meetings with Oregon State heading into Saturday afternoon's showdown in Eugene. With their hopes of making the College Football Playoff dashed by last Saturday's 31-28 upset loss at Arizona State, the Ducks, who have already clinched the Pac-12 North Division title, can focus on trying to keep their in-state rivals from becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2013.
ABOUT OREGON STATE (5-6, 4-4 Pac-12): Senior quarterback Jake Luton completed 22-of-40 passes for a career-best 408 yards and tied his career high with five TD passes in the loss to the Cougars and ranks fifth in the Pac-12 with an average of 246.7 passing yards per game while having thrown 28 TDs and just three interceptions. Junior wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins, a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist, ranks second in the Pac-12 in receptions per game (7.1) and has caught 78 passes for 1,086 yards and 13 TDs while tight end Noah Togiai had five receptions for 67 yards and a score at Washington State while becoming the sixth tight end in OSU history to reach 1,000 career receiving yards. Junior outside linebacker Hamilcar Rashed Jr. leads the defense with 22.5 tackles for loss, which leads the nation, and 14 sacks, which ranks No. 2 nationally.
Oregon State is first in the nation with only five turnovers lost this season.
Beavers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Ducks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Beavers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Oregon and I’ll back them plus the big number.
|11-30-19||Alabama -3 v. Auburn||Top||45-48||Loss||-133||27 h 5 m||Show|
Fifth-ranked Alabama has one final chance to boost its postseason aspirations when it visits No. 16 Auburn in the 84th edition of the Iron Bowl on Saturday. The Crimson Tide are ranked fifth in the College Football Playoff poll and need a win over the Tigers and help from others to land one of the four spots.
Auburn is 2-3 against ranked teams this season and coach Gus Malzahn said the contests typically come down to a few plays.
ABOUT ALABAMA (10-1, 6-1 SEC): Sophomore quarterback Mac Jones has taken over for injured Tua Tagovailoa (hip) and passed for 275 yards and three touchdowns in last week's 66-3 win over Western Carolina in his second career start. "He's played well when he's had the opportunity to play, and I think the team has confidence in him," Saban said. Senior safety Jared Mayden has a team-leading four interceptions while senior cornerback Trevon Diggs and junior safety Xavier McKinney each have three, with McKinney returning one 81 yards for a score against Western Carolina.
ABOUT AUBURN (8-3, 4-3): Quarterback Bo Nix has 14 touchdown passes to tie the school freshman record set by Stan White in 1990 and is just 50 yards from topping White's yardage mark of 2,442. The Tigers allow an average of 16.2 points per game and are receiving solid seasons from senior defensive tackle Marlon Davidson (7.5 sacks) and senior defensive end Derrick Brown (30 career tackles for loss).
Alabama has won eight of the past 11 meetings and holds a 46-36-1 series edge.
Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November. Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Look for Alabama to get the best of Auburn with a win and cover.
|11-30-19||Wisconsin -1 v. Minnesota||Top||38-17||Win||100||27 h 50 m||Show|
No. 9 Minnesota can clinch its first Big Ten West Division title when it hosts 14th-ranked Wisconsin in the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe on Saturday. The Golden Gophers beat Northwestern 38-22 in Week 13 to maintain their one-game lead at the top of the division standings and hope to book their first trip to the conference championship game while keeping their College Playoff Football hopes alive by knocking off the Badgers in back-to-back years.
Wisconsin cruised past Purdue 45-24 to set up a winner-take-all clash in one of the most important editions of the rivalry to date. The Badgers have won three consecutive games since dropping back-to-back contests against No. 1 Ohio State and Illinois, and hope to avenge a 37-15 loss to the Golden Gophers last season, which snapped their 14-game winning streak in the rivalry while booking a rematch with the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship game on Dec.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten): Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and a pair of touchdowns to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a touchdown in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career. Taylor has rushed for over 200 yards in three consecutive outings.
ABOUT MINNESOTA (10-1, 7-1): Tanner Morgan showed no ill effects from the concussion he suffered in the previous week as he threw for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26, which broke the program's single-season passing touchdown record previously held by Adam Weber (24).
Badgers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
I’ll back Wisconsin behind their top running game.
|11-30-19||Ohio State -8 v. Michigan||Top||56-27||Win||100||23 h 25 m||Show|
Second-ranked Ohio State goes into its rivalry game against No. 11 Michigan having already clinched the Big Ten East Division title and a berth in the conference championship game the following week, but that doesn't mean Saturday's annual border battle in Ann Arbor, Mich., lacks significance. The Buckeyes, who are No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, are out to not only continue their recent dominance in the series but remain in prime position to win a national title.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten): Defense (fourth nationally, allowing 267 yards per game) and the passing game will be key factors for the Wolverines in their bid for an upset. Quarterback Shea Patterson ranks third in the Big Ten with 229.4 passing yards per game and has some skilled receivers at his disposal.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-0, 8-0): The Buckeyes are loaded with talent across the board, but defensive end Chase Young, quarterback Justin Fields and running back J.K. Dobbins command most of the attention. Young, who leads the country in sacks, returned after missing two games because of a suspension to wreak havoc against Penn State with three sacks, four tackles for loss, nine total tackles and a forced fumble. Fields ranks third nationally in points responsible for with 258 and is tied for third with 33 touchdowns passes, and Dobbins moved into third on Ohio State's career rushing list with 3,902 yards after running for 157 and two touchdowns on 36 carries against Penn State.
Ohio State leads the country in points per game (49.4), first downs (28.5), third-down conversions (58.1 percent), fewest points allowed (10.5), total defense (217.4 yards per game), passing yards allowed (126.2) and is second in sacks per game (4.27).
I’m more then willing to lay the points with Ohio State.
|11-30-19||Indiana -6.5 v. Purdue||Top||44-41||Loss||-115||23 h 21 m||Show|
Indiana has already clinched a bowl berth and Purdue is out of the postseason picture, but winning the annual rivalry game to end the season always holds a prominent position on each team's bucket list. The Hoosiers will be trying to end a two-game losing streak in the series when they travel to Purdue on Saturday.
ABOUT INDIANA (7-4, 4-4 Big Ten): The Hoosiers have lost two straight games to top 15 opponents and don't want to end the season on a three-game skid after sitting at 7-2 three weeks ago and breaking into the Top 25. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey (70.9 percent completion rate, 1,890 yards, 10 touchdowns, four interceptions) was banged up in last week's 39-14 loss at home to No. 11 Michigan but will be "good to go" against Purdue, Allen said. Indiana leads the Big Ten in pass offense (306.1 yards per game) and has scored 30 or more points in eight of 11 games.
ABOUT PURDUE (4-7, 3-5): The injury-plagued Boilermakers had won two in a row before falling 45-24 last week at No. 14 Wisconsin. Third-string quarterback Aidan O'Connell, a walk-on, has connected on 65.2 percent of his passes for 693 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions.
Indiana WR Whop Philyor (61 receptions, 863 yards, three touchdowns) will return Saturday after sitting out the loss to Michigan with a concussion suffered on a helmet-to-helmet hit a week earlier in the setback at No. 12 Penn State.
Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Favorite is 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Back the much better team in Indiana.
|11-30-19||Georgia -28 v. Georgia Tech||Top||52-7||Win||100||23 h 19 m||Show|
Fourth-ranked Georgia already has a spot in the SEC championship game and remains in the running for a playoff spot, but first is a chance to continue its in-state dominance as the Bulldogs travel to Georgia Tech on Saturday. The Bulldogs defeated the Yellow Jackets in 18 of the past 24 meetings while winning nine in a row at Georgia Tech, and enter the matchup allowing the second-least points per game in the nation (10.7) - including 44 points total in the past five games.
“What they’ve done well is a lot of things,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart told reporters Monday in describing the defense but emphasizing the need to force more turnovers.
While the Yellow Jackets have struggled offensively under first-year coach Geoff Collins - ranking 122nd nationally in scoring offense at 17.5 points - they scored 28 for the second time in their past three games in last week’s 28-26 victory over North Carolina State.
ABOUT GEORGIA (10-1): Junior linebacker Monty Rice leads the defense with 71 tackles and senior linebacker Tae Crowder has 52 stops, leading a defense that is second in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game (68.5) and fifth in total defense (267.7 yards per contest). Junior quarterback Jake Fromm completed just 11 passes last week against Texas A&M for 163 yards, but has only thrown three interceptions on the season (all three in Georgia’s lone loss, against South Carolina). Junior running back D’Andre Swift is third in the SEC in rushing yards (1,130) and yards per game (102.7).
ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (3-8): Redshirt freshman quarterback James Graham earned ACC rookie of the week after passing for 129 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for 112 yards and a score last week. The Yellow Jackets are allowing 30.6 points per game.
A victory Saturday assures Georgia its third consecutive season with at least 11 wins.
Look for Georgia to make a big statement in a rout.
|11-24-19||Packers +3.5 v. 49ers||Top||8-37||Loss||-115||46 h 43 m||Show|
There is little margin for error for two division leaders when the Green Bay Packers visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night. San Francisco has the best record in the NFC and holds a one-game lead over the NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks while the Packers are a half-game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (8-2): Rodgers has a superb ratio of 17 touchdown passes against two interceptions and has thrown for 2,718 yards, twice topping 400 yards passing. Running back Aaron Jones has broken out and is tied for the NFL lead with 14 touchdowns (11 rushing, three receiving) and has 943 scrimmage yards (589 rushing, 354 receiving). Linebacker Preston Smith has dominated with a team-best 10 sacks for an opportunistic defense that has fueled the team's plus-9 turnover margin (16 takeaways, seven giveaways).
ABOUT THE 49ERS (9-1): San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has heated up with 11 passing touchdowns over the past four games and he has thrown for 2,478 yards, 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Star tight end George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) returned to practice Thursday and the 49ers are hopeful he will available after missing the past two games with knee and ankle injuries.
Packers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Packers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in San Francisco.
I’m all over the Packers as an underdog.
|11-24-19||Cowboys v. Patriots -6||Top||9-13||Loss||-100||42 h 47 m||Show|
Despite Tom Brady's admitted "frustration" with his team's offense, the New England Patriots own the best record in the AFC in their bid to make a fourth consecutive appearance in the Super Bowl. New England has won 17 in a row at home and will put that streak on the line when they host the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.
While the Patriots were held to a lowest point total since Week 4 in a 17-10 win at Philadelphia on Sunday, helping Dallas assume sole possession of first place in the division.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-4): Dak Prescott became the third Dallas quarterback to earn multiple NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors in one season after throwing for 444 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in last week's 35-27 win at Detroit. The Pats defense will be a different ball game.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (9-1): New England's defense leads the league in points (10.8) and total yards (249.9) allowed while ranking first in interceptions (18) and third in sacks (37.0).
A victory Sunday would give the Patriots 17 straight 10-win seasons, breaking an NFL record shared with San Francisco.
Cowboys are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Patriots are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Patriots defense gets the job done with a win and cover!
|11-24-19||Jaguars v. Titans -3.5||Top||20-42||Win||100||41 h 26 m||Show|
I feel we have two teams heading in opposite directions here on Sunday with Jacksonville dropping two straight games and averaging just 8 points per game, while Tennessee has won 3 of their last 4 games (3-1 ATS) and has averaged just over 26 points per game.
The Jaguars have been terrible on defense give up over 260 yards rushing last week vs. the Colts. Look for Titans running back Derrick Henry to have a big day and quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is hitting at a 71% clip with eight touchdowns since taking over the offense to play well again.
Tennessee knows how to take care of the ball at home averaging just 0.6 turnovers per game, while their opponents have averaged 1.8 turnovers per game.
Jacksonville is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Tennessee and has not won in Nashville since 2013.
I’m more than willing to lay a field goal or more with the Titans at home.
|11-24-19||Bucs v. Falcons -3.5||Top||35-22||Loss||-105||38 h 21 m||Show|
The Atlanta Falcons are a different team since their bye week and look to put the clamps on a third straight opponent when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Atlanta yielded an average of 31.3 points in losing seven of its first eight games before realizing its defensive potential with consecutive victories at New Orleans 26-9 and at Carolina 29-3.
Atlanta has won five straight in the series with an average of nearly 60 combined points scored in those games and since Tampa Bay is last in the NFL in points allowed at 31.3 per contest, Sunday's game could become a shootout if the Buccaneers' Jameis Winston takes care of the ball.
That is a big if, though, as the fifth-year quarterback has thrown an NFL-most 18 interceptions - including four in a 34-17 loss to New Orleans last week - and has eight fumbles over the last five games.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (3-7): Winston, who is nursing an ankle injury, has thrown for more than 300 yards in five straight games - a franchise record and the longest active streak in the NFL. I feel the Saints defense will force him into mistakes all day.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (3-7): Matt Ryan (69.2 percent completion rate, 18 touchdown passes, nine interceptions) moved past Warren Moon and into 10th place all-time with 49,383 yards after throwing for 311 with a score last week. Wide receiver Julio Jones has 102 catches for 1,695 yards and 11 TDs in 14 games against Tampa Bay - all the most versus any opponent.
Roll with the Falcons at home!
|11-24-19||Panthers v. Saints -9.5||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||38 h 20 m||Show|
Carolina's Christian McCaffrey and New Orleans' Alvin Kamara - the league's top two all-purpose running backs - will be the featured attractions when the Saints host the Panthers on Sunday. First-place New Orleans holds a three-game lead over Carolina in the NFC South, and will try to ration Kamara's playing time down the stretch with running back Latavius Murray getting his fair share of touches.
The Panthers have dropped three of four after McCaffrey totaled 191 yards in a 29-3 loss to Atlanta last week.
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (5-5): Kyle Allen led Carolina to four straight victories with seven touchdown passes and zero interceptions in his first four starts of the season but has three TDs and nine picks - four versus Atlanta - in his last four games.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (8-2): Kamara returned from his two-game absence with 122 yards from scrimmage in a 34-17 victory at Tampa Bay last week and has rushed for a touchdown in his last three games against the Panthers. Drew Brees has completed 76.4 percent of his passes with six TDs and an interception in three contests since missing five-plus games with a thumb injury. Michael Thomas has a league-leading 94 catches - the most after 10 games in NFL history - and became the first player with 90 or more catches in his first four seasons after recording eight last week.
Brees has thrown 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions in his last seven home games versus Carolina.
Lay the big number with the Saints at home.
|11-23-19||TCU +18 v. Oklahoma||Top||24-28||Win||100||28 h 8 m||Show|
Oklahoma put its hopes at making the College Football Playoff at risk with a shocking late October loss at Kansas State and on life support with two poor halves of play in its most recent contests, but Lincoln Riley's team is back in charge of its own destiny in the Big 12. Following their historic comeback last weekend to knock off undefeated Baylor, the seventh-ranked Sooners look to move one step closer to another regular-season conference title Saturday when they host TCU.
Following a 48-41 setback to the Wildcats late last month, Oklahoma held on to beat Iowa State 42-41 after surrendering a 21-point fourth-quarter advantage on Nov. 9 before setting a school record by overcoming a 25-point deficit in last weekend's thrilling 34-31 road victory over the Bears.
The Horned Frogs moved one step closer toward becoming bowl-eligible for a sixth straight season following last weekend's 33-31 win at Texas Tech, taking advantage of Jonathan Song's fourth and final field goal of the day with 5:38 remaining to end a two-game skid. TCU was unable to hold an early 21-point lead against the Red Raiders, but the defense forced two three-and-outs and a fumble on Texas Tech's final two possessions to survive.
ABOUT TCU (5-5, 3-4 Big 12): Freshman quarterback Max Duggan set season highs virtually across the board as a passer last weekend, finishing 25-of-43 for 323 yards and two touchdowns, and added 75 yards and another score as a runner.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (9-1, 6-1): Making the Sooners' comeback all the more impressive was that it occurred without CeeDee Lamb, who is tied for second in the country with 13 receiving touchdowns but was held out against Baylor due to a "medical decision," according to Riley; Lamb's status for Saturday is unclear.
The Horned Frogs amassed 549 yards of total offense against Texas Tech - their second-best mark of the season - and held a 43:26 to 16:34 advantage in time of possession.
I look for TCU to stay inside the number.
|11-23-19||Texas +6 v. Baylor||Top||10-24||Loss||-110||24 h 39 m||Show|
With its bid for a perfect season derailed following an epic collapse last weekend, Baylor must regroup and resume its pursuit for a Big 12 title and a spot in the conference title game. The 13th-ranked Bears need one win in their final two games to play for the league championship and can clinch that spot by beating visiting Texas on Saturday afternoon.
Baylor appeared well on its way to win No. 10 and sole possession of first place in the Big 12 before blowing a 25-point lead in a stunning 34-31 loss to Oklahoma.
While the Bears remain in charge of their destiny entering their home finale, Texas also is coming off a crushing defeat - its third in five games - after falling at Iowa State 23-21 on a last-second field goal. The Longhorns, who still have a faint chance of reaching the league title game, made it four straight wins over Baylor with a 23-17 victory last year.
ABOUT TEXAS (6-4, 4-3 Big 12): Sam Ehlinger rallied the Longhorns with a pair of scoring strikes in the fourth quarter last week and broke the school single-season record held by Colt McCoy with his sixth game with at least three touchdown passes. Devin Duvernay went over 1,000 receiving yards for the season and had his fourth consecutive 100-yard game with nine receptions for 107 yards, pushing his total to 87 catches.
ABOUT BAYLOR (9-1, 6-1): Charlie Brewer ran for two touchdowns and threw for a pair of scoring passes as the Bears bolted to a 31-10 halftime lead over Oklahoma, but they were held off the scoreboard after intermission and ran only 15 plays on their last four possessions.
Texas has won eight of 11 at Baylor since the schools joined the Big 12.
Take Texas plus the points.
|11-23-19||Michigan v. Indiana +10||Top||39-14||Loss||-115||24 h 35 m||Show|
No. 12 Michigan looks to continue its late-season surge when it visits Indiana on Saturday. The Wolverines' offense has come to life in the last month after a slow start under new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, as they have averaged 42 points in wins against 15th-ranked Notre Dame (45-14), Maryland (38-7), and Michigan State (44-10), and hope to keep rolling by knocking off the Hoosiers for the 24th consecutive time in the rivalry.
Indiana made its first appearance in the Top 25 since 1994 before suffering a 34-27 loss to No. 9 Penn State in Week 12. The Hoosiers went toe-to-toe with the Nittany Lions on the road, but couldn't deliver the knockout blow in their bid to upset a Top 10 team.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (8-2, 5-2 Big Ten): Shea Patterson was named the Big Ten Co-Player of the Week after throwing for a career-high 384 yards and four touchdowns in the win against Michigan State to improve to 13-0 at Michigan Stadium.
ABOUT INDIANA (7-3, 4-3): Peyton Ramsey did an admirable job filling in for the injured Michael Penix Jr. as he threw for a career-high 371 yards and a touchdown to go along with a pair of rushing scores in the loss to Penn State.
Wolverines are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
I’ll take the points with the home underdog.
|11-23-19||Penn State +19 v. Ohio State||Top||17-28||Win||100||20 h 11 m||Show|
Second-ranked Ohio State welcomes back defensive stalwart Chase Young from a two-game suspension and his presence solidifies the Buckeyes as a decisive favorite for Saturday's key Big Ten clash at home with No. 9 Penn State. The unbeaten Buckeyes carry a 16-game winning streak into the game and their national championship aspirations hinge on the outcome.
A potential matchup of two undefeated teams was spoiled two weeks ago when Penn State lost at Minnesota, but the Nittany Lions can still secure at least a share of the Big Ten East Division title with two more wins and a berth in the conference championship game. Ohio State's road to the postseason is simple: Win this week, and the following week at No. 12 Michigan and in the Big Ten championship game to reach the College Football Playoff semifinals.
ABOUT PENN STATE (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten): The Nittany Lions bounced back from its first loss with a 34-27 victory at home last week over feisty Indiana, but their pass defense has faltered in the past two games and allowed a combined 711 yards. On offense, Penn State possesses the skill to challenge Ohio State with quarterback Sean Clifford, receiver KJ Hamler (injured last week but expected to play), tight end Pat Freierrmuth and running back Journey Brown as the key players.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (10-0, 7-0): After manhandling Maryland and Rutgers the past two weeks by a combined score of 129-35, Ohio State faces their first significant opponent since they disposed of No. 14 Wisconsin on Oct. 26.
Here is a look at the past three years:
2018: Ohio State won 27-26
Penn State stays within the number so take the points as my top pick of the week.
|11-23-19||Illinois +15.5 v. Iowa||Top||10-19||Win||100||20 h 7 m||Show|
Illinois, the hottest team in the Big Ten West Division, has not fared well against No. 20 Iowa in recent years, but the resurgent Fighting Illini bring plenty of confidence and a four-game winning streak to Iowa City for Saturday's matchup. The Illini have lost six straight games in the series dating to 2008 and were blown out 63-0 last year by the Hawkeyes.
But this Illinois team has taken a step forward in coach Lovie Smith's fourth season. The Illini, coming off a bye week, put them in position entering the final two weeks of the regular season to have a long-shot chance to win the division and make it to the Big Ten championship game. For that to happen, though, they would need to win out; No. 11 Minnesota and No. 14 Wisconsin lose this weekend, and Wisconsin to beat Minnesota next week.
ABOUT ILLINOIS (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten): There were questions about whether Smith would keep his job after the Illini lost four consecutive games in September and early October, but they've reeled off four wins in a row since - two of them with miraculous comebacks against Wisconsin and Michigan State. They've done it by outscoring opponents 79-22 in the second half (44-12 in the fourth quarter) and with a defense that has forced an average of three turnovers per game during the streak.
ABOUT IOWA (7-3, 4-3): The Hawkeyes had lost three games to ranked opponents (No. 9 Penn State, No. 12 Michigan, Wisconsin) by a total of 14 points before upending Minnesota for their biggest win of the season.
Illinois leads FBS in defensive touchdowns (six), turnovers gained (26), forced fumbles (17), fumble recoveries (16) and turnover margin (plus-1.4).
We will gladly take the points in a close game.
|11-23-19||Central Florida v. Tulane +6||Top||34-31||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
It's been a step back for Central Florida this season, though it will still finish up as one of the top teams in the American Athletic Conference. The Knights will try to bounce back from a rare loss when they visit Tulane on Saturday.
UCF totaled one loss in 2017 and 2018 - none in AAC play - but fell for the third time in 2019 when it went scoreless in the fourth quarter and gave up the lead in a 34-31 setback at Tulsa last week.
The Green Wave let a promising season and a chance at a spot in the AAC championship slip away with losses in three of the last four games and are coming off a 27-21 setback at Temple last week.
ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (7-3, 4-2 AAC): The Knights committed 15 penalties leading to 120 lost yards in the loss to Tulsa, and eliminating mistakes was a focus of practice this week.
ABOUT TULANE (6-4, 3-3): Quarterback Justin McMillan owns five touchdown passes and eight interceptions in the last four games and struggled with his accuracy at Temple, completing 11-of-27 passes for 103 yards in the loss. McMillan threw eight TD passes and two interceptions during Tulane's 5-1 start.
Tulane is trying to finish undefeated at home for the first time since 1998.
Knights are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Green Wave are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on field turf.
Back the home underdog in Tulane.
|11-21-19||Colts +3.5 v. Texans||Top||17-20||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
First place in the AFC South will be on the line when the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans square off for the second time in six weeks. The Colts snapped a two-game skid with a lopsided 33-13 victory over Jacksonville on Sunday and will be seeking their sixth win in the last seven meetings when they visit the Texans on Thursday night.
Houston's defense was carved up by Lamar Jackson in last week's 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore, halting a two-game winning streak and now they'll have to deal with a Colts passing offense that shredded them for 321 back in Week 7.
With Brissett back under center, Indianapolis rebounded from a stunning home loss to lowly Miami by rolling up a lopsided 33-13 victory over Jacksonville on Sunday, while limiting an opponent to 16 points or fewer for the third time in four weeks.
The Texans have struggled to get a pass rush ever since J.J. Watt was lost to injury, meaning the Colts dominant offensive line should be able to give Brissett plenty of time to read the field and pick apart a banged up Texans secondary.
Colts are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC South. Texans are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Take Colts plus the points in a game they can win outright.
|11-17-19||Patriots -3.5 v. Eagles||Top||17-10||Win||100||41 h 2 m||Show|
It's not too often that the New England Patriots fail to come out on top in a high-profile match, but one of the most noteworthy examples in recent memory came in a loss to Philadelphia in Super Bowl LII in February 2018. The Patriots will get a chance to avenge that defeat and bounce back from their first loss of the season when they visit the Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
While the Patriots' aura of defensive invincibility was punctured in a 37-20 loss at Baltimore prior to last week's bye, the Eagles have moved back into a tie for first place in the NFC East courtesy of back-to-back wins at Buffalo and against Chicago prior to their week off.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (8-1): New England entered its Week 9 matchup leading the league in points allowed (7.6), interceptions (19) and sacks (31), but it could not solve Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, who threw for one touchdown and ran for two more. Brady was held to one touchdown or less for the fourth time in six games, but he established a rapport with recent acquisition Mohamed Sanu, who hauled in 10 receptions for 81 yards and a score in his second game with the club.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-4): Philadelphia had absorbed lopsided road losses at Minnesota and Dallas before rebounding with an impressive 31-13 victory in Buffalo and a 22-14 win over Chicago. Carson Wentz, who missed the Super Bowl victory over New England due to a knee injury, has 11 touchdowns versus two interceptions over his last seven games but could be dealing with a patchwork wide receiver corps. Alshon Jeffery (ankle) did not practice for a second straight game and DeSean Jackson was placed on injured reserve, so the Eagles may lean on the running back tandem of Jordan Howard (525 yards, 6 TDs rushing) and rookie Miles Sanders.
Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week and are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Lay the number with New England on the road off a bye.
|11-17-19||Bengals v. Raiders -11||Top||10-17||Loss||-116||41 h 2 m||Show|
The rested Oakland Raiders have a great opportunity to stretch their winning streak to three games in a row when they host the winless Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. After victories over Detroit and the Los Angeles Chargers, the Raiders enter Week 11 just a half-game behind the Kansas City Chiefs for first place in the AFC West.
The Bengals are one loss away from matching the worst start in franchise history and their longest losing streak at 10 games, which happened in 1993 and 2010. They don't seem to be getting any closer to breaking through after last week's 49-13 loss to Baltimore at home.
ABOUT THE BENGALS (0-9): Trying to maintain a positive outlook is a challenge amid an 0-9 start, but first-year coach Zac Taylor is confident he and his players will only be stronger because of it. Rookie Ryan Finley made his first start at quarterback last week and completed 16-of-30 passes for 167 yards with one touchdown and two turnovers, both of which were returned for scores.
ABOUT THE RAIDERS (5-4): Rookie running back Josh Jacobs sealed the dramatic 26-24 win over the Chargers on Nov. 7 with an 18-yard TD run, and he's averaging 100.8 yards on the ground over his last five games. That score gave Oakland a 5-1 record in games decided by single digits, and the team is taking pride in its identity as a tough unit.
Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Look for the Raiders to outplay the Bengals on both sides of the football. Lay the big number with Oakland.
|11-17-19||Cowboys -6.5 v. Lions||Top||35-27||Win||100||38 h 40 m||Show|
The Dallas Cowboys used a strong second-half surge en route to winning the NFC East title a year ago and they hope to follow a similar path with seven games remaining this season. Having lost four of six after opening the season with three straight wins, the Cowboys look to maintain their hold on the division lead when they visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon.
The Lions are on the verge of falling out of postseason contention after dropping five out of six and may be forced to start backup quarterback Jeff Driskel for a second straight week with Matthew Stafford hobbled by a back injury.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-4): Dak Prescott, second in the league with 2,777 yards, registered his third straight 100.0-plus passer rating after throwing for 397 yards and three touchdowns versus Minnesota. Amari Cooper had 147 yards and a score on a season high-tying 11 receptions while Randall Cobb also eclipsed 100 yards and a score, but Elliott had his string of three consecutive 100-yard games snapped by rushing for only 47 on 20 carries. Elliott, however, shredded the Lions for 152 yards while adding four catches for 88 yards and a touchdown in last season's 26-24 win. Dallas ranks sixth in points allowed (18.9) and against the pass (219.8 yards).
ABOUT THE LIONS (3-5-1): Stafford did not practice again Thursday and Driskel appears in line for his seventh NFL start after throwing for a career-best 269 yards with one touchdown and an interception in last week's 20-13 loss at Chicago. Driskel has talent on the outside in wideouts Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., who have combined for 14 scoring passes. Ty Johnson (concussion) was knocked out of last week's game due but practiced on a limited basis Thursday for Detroit, which already lost starting running back Kerryon Johnson for the season. The Lions rank 28th against the pass (272.8 yards).
Prescott has at least two scoring passes in five straight games versus NFC North opponents.
Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
The Cowboys get the money here on the road.
|11-17-19||Saints -5 v. Bucs||Top||34-17||Win||100||38 h 39 m||Show|
The New Orleans Saints are still in control of the NFC South, but they don’t want a repeat performance of last week. The division-leading Saints will look to bounce back from a disappointing loss when they travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a divisional matchup Sunday.
The Saints had their six-game winning streak snapped with a stunning 26-9 loss to visiting Atlanta last week, but they still have a two-game cushion in the division. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 31-24 at home in Week 5, holding the Bucs to a season-low 252 total yards. That came in the midst of a remarkable five-game run in which the Saints did not allow more than 257 total yards, which came to an end when they gave up 317 yards to the Falcons. Tampa Bay ended a four-game skid with a 30-27 home win over Arizona last week after losing its first three home games of the season.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (7-2): New Orleans’ offense sputtered to just 310 total yards last week, and nearly half of them came from MVP candidate Michael Thomas, who had 13 catches for 152 yards. Thomas torched the Bucs for 11 catches for 182 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 and has had at least 10 catches and 90 receiving yards in three straight games against Tampa Bay. The Saints rank fifth in the league in total defense.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (3-6): Tampa Bay overcame three turnovers to beat the Cardinals last week, but the giveaways are a continued concern, as they’ve committed 21 turnovers, including three games with four or more. The Bucs didn’t cough it up in the first meeting with the Saints, but they’ve done so 15 times in four games since, and Jameis Winston has thrown a whopping 14 interceptions. The other red flag for the Bucs has been their pass defense, which ranks last in the league and has given up more than 300 net passing yards six times in nine games.
Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points and are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 road games. Buccaneers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Lay the points with the Saints to bounce back big!
|11-16-19||UCLA +21.5 v. Utah||Top||3-49||Loss||-110||20 h 29 m||Show|
Thanksgiving is still two weeks away, but No. 9 Utah has much on the table entering its final three games of the regular season. That vital homestretch starts Saturday night when the Utes host UCLA in a key Pac-12 South Division matchup.
With five straight wins, Utah has a half-game lead over USC atop the South with the Bruins lurking another half-game behind. Then there’s the matter of the College Football Playoff rankings, where the Utes debuted at No. 8 a week ago in the inaugural ranks and moved up a spot to seventh on Tuesday, but winning the South and the ensuing Pac-12 Championship Game remain absolute musts for Utah to have any shot at making the CFP final four.
UCLA, meanwhile, has won three straight after a 1-5 start, and with Utah and USC next on the schedule, coach Chip Kelly’s Bruins control their own South Division destiny as well.
ABOUT UCLA (4-5, 4-2 Pac-12): Like the Utes, the Bruins are coming off a bye last week, and will be looking to continue their offensive roll as they lead the conference in points (37.0) and rushing yards (217.2) per game in Pac-12 play. Senior tailback Joshua Kelley leads the conference in rushing with 107.6 yards per outing and has totaled 466 yards and seven touchdowns during the Bruins’ three-game win streak. Dual-threat sophomore quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has averaged 237.7 yards of total offense has accounted for seven TDs during the team’s current run, and the Bruins’ defense has been better of late despite ranking in the conference’s lower half in points (32.0) and total yards (431.6) allowed per game.
ABOUT UTAH (8-1, 5-1): The Utes were expected to field one of the nation’s top defenses, and it’s most definitely lived up to the billing with Utah ranking in the FBS top six in points allowed (12.2 per game), total yards allowed (246.3), rushing defense (56.0) and opponents’ third-down conversion percentage (27.9). Linebacker Devin Lloyd leads the team with 58 total tackles while defensive end Bradlee Anae has nine tackles-for-loss, including eight sacks. Offensively, senior quarterback Tyler Huntley leads the conference in passing efficiency (182.46 rating) with 11 TDs and only one interception while pairing with talented tailback Zack Moss to power the Pac-12’s leading rushing attack at 207.8 yards per game.
The key matchup will feature Kelley and the Bruins trying to solve the Utes’ top-ranked national run defense, which has held seven of its nine opponents to 67 yards or fewer on the season.
While Utah clearly has the edge in this one, I look for UCLA to keep it somewhat close. Take the points.
|11-16-19||Oklahoma v. Baylor +10.5||Top||34-31||Win||100||20 h 55 m||Show|
Matt Rhule wasn't able to get his first win at Baylor until early November when he first took over the program in 2017, but a November victory this weekend may be all his team needs to put an end to Oklahoma's recent Big 12 dominance. The 10th-ranked Bears attempt to continue their dream season and basically assure themselves a regular-season conference title Saturday night when they host the eighth-ranked Sooners.
Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point lead last weekend and needed to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on to a 42-41 victory over Iowa State.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (8-1, 5-1 Big 12): Junior wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two touchdowns against the Cyclones. Sophomore Kennedy Brooks ran for a season-high 132 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts to become the third Sooner to hit the century mark on the ground in 2019. The increased reliance on Brooks was likely the product of losing Trey Sermon to a left knee injury on his first carry; both he and defensive lineman Kenneth Mann (undisclosed) are expected to miss the rest of the season.
ABOUT BAYLOR (9-0, 6-0): The Bears scored all three of their touchdowns versus the Horned Frogs after regulation, including a pair of athletic grabs from Denzel Mims, who accounted for three of his six catches and 36 of his 57 yards during the overtime periods. Sophomore linebacker Terrel Bernard had a career-high 19 tackles - the most by a Baylor player since safety Sam Holl's 21 stops against Kansas in 2011 - and his first interception of the season to earn Big 12 Player of the Week honors. Freshman kicker John Mayers was named the conference's special teams player of the week after accounting for all of his team's points during regulation, including a career-long 51-yard field goal with 36 seconds remaining to send the game into overtime.
Oklahoma has surrendered at least 41 points in back-to-back contests after holding opponents to an average of 19.4 points in its first seven games. The Bears boast a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season.
Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game and are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Bears are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
I think the points are a gift here as Baylor has a shot at the outright win.
|11-16-19||Minnesota v. Iowa -3||Top||19-23||Win||100||17 h 31 m||Show|
Seventh-ranked Minnesota looks to keep its perfect record intact when it visits No. 22 Iowa on Saturday in the battle for the Floyd of Rosedale. The Golden Gophers upset then No. 4 Penn State 31-26 in Week 11 to climb nine spots to No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings after improving to 9-0 for the first time since since 1904, and they hope to take a big step towards their first Big Ten West Division title by ending a four-game skid in the rivalry with the Hawkeyes.
The Hawkeyes had a chance to tie the game, but came up short on a two-point conversion late in the fourth quarter to fall three games behind Minnesota with three contests remaining, but can play the role of spoiler, as they search for their ninth straight win over the Gophers in Iowa City.
ABOUT MINNESOTA (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten): Tanner Morgan had one of the best games of his career as he completed 18-of-20 passes for 339 yards and three touchdowns in the win against Penn State to improve to 13-2 as the starting quarterback. Bateman hauled in seven passes for a career-high 203 yards and a touchdown against the Nittany Lions.
ABOUT IOWA (6-3, 3-3): Nate Stanley threw for 208 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the loss to Wisconsin to overtake Ricky Stanzi (7,377) for third place on the program's all-time passing yards list with 7,509. Tyrone Tracy Jr. caught five passes for a career-high 130 yards and a touchdown while Keith Duncan made three field goals to set a new single-season Iowa record with 22.
Iowa has won six of the last seven overall meetings with the Golden Gophers and they get the home victory!
|11-16-19||Georgia -3 v. Auburn||Top||21-14||Win||101||16 h 58 m||Show|
Fifth-ranked Georgia is one victory from clinching the SEC East and reaching the conference championship game, but that path will not be easy starting with Saturday’s trip to No. 13 Auburn. The Bulldogs have allowed just 17 points with two shutouts during a three-game winning streak but will face an offense averaging 32.7 points and 425.1 yards, and whose only two losses have come against teams ranked in the top 10 at the time (LSU, Florida).
The Tigers will have to contend with a Georgia defense that leads the SEC and is second nationally in points allowed per game (10.1), fourth in the country in rushing defense (74.6 yards) and fifth in FBS in total defense (260.3 yards). While the Bulldogs have yet to surrender a rushing touchdown this season, Auburn is tied for 18th in the country in rushing touchdowns (23) and 19th in the nation in average rushing yards (219.3).
ABOUT GEORGIA (8-1, 5-1 SEC): The Bulldogs have three shutouts this season for the first time since 1981, one off the school record in a 12-game regular season, and limited Missouri to only 198 yards of total offense (50 rushing) in last week’s 27-0 home victory. Junior defensive back Richard LeCounte returned an interception 71 yards and registered four tackles last week, while senior linebacker Tae Crowder led Georgia with seven stops. It was another efficient day for junior quarterback Jake Fromm (13-of-29, 173 yards, two touchdowns) and junior running back D’Andre Swift (83 yards on 12 carries).
ABOUT AUBURN (7-2, 4-2): The Tigers were off last week after a 20-14 home victory over Ole Miss on Nov. 2, as freshman quarterback Bo Nix completed 30-of-44 passes for a career-best 340 yards and rushed for a touchdown, while freshman running back D.J. Williams rushed for 93 yards and a score on 24 carries. Nix has passed for 1,798 yards and 12 touchdowns this season, while sophomore receiver Seth Williams leads Auburn in receptions (35) and yards (569). Sophomore defensive back Christian Tutt intercepted a pass on the game’s final play after Ole Miss drove to the Auburn 35-yard line.
Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Lay the small number with Georgia on the road.
|11-16-19||Texas +7 v. Iowa State||Top||21-23||Win||100||16 h 57 m||Show|
No. 23 Texas is still very much in the hunt for a return trip to the Big 12 Championship Game as it enters the final quarter of its regular season. That stretch begins Saturday afternoon as the Longhorns visit Iowa State.
Baylor (6-0) and Oklahoma (5-1) currently hold down the top two spots in the conference, and they square off Saturday night in Waco. Texas (4-2), which lost to Oklahoma earlier in the season, will visit Baylor the following week as the trio jockey for a top-two regular season finish and spots in the Dec. 7 conference title game in Arlington, Texas. The Longhorns fell to the Sooners in the 2018 Big 12 Championship Game. Iowa State was in strong position to contend three weeks ago but has since suffered back-to-back narrow losses to Oklahoma State (34-27) and Oklahoma (42-41) to fall to 3-3 and into a three-way tie for fourth place in the conference.
ABOUT TEXAS (6-3, 4-2 Big 12): The Longhorns have had to scratch and claw to get to third place, needing final-play field goals from Cameron Dicker to win two of their last three games. Senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger has directed the game-winning drives in each contest and is tied for the Big 12 lead in touchdowns passes (24) and ranks sixth nationally in total offense per game (338.0 yards). Ehlinger got a big assist from tailback Keaontay Ingram (career-best 139 rushing yards and two TDs) in last Saturday’s 27-24 win over Kansas State, while Texas’ struggling defense (seventh in the conference surrendering 30.7 points and 447.6 total yards per contest) limited the Wildcats to only three offensive points over the final three quarters.
ABOUT IOWA STATE (5-4, 3-3): The Cyclones will have to find a way to rebound from Saturday’s heart-breaking one-point loss in Norman, Okla., as the Sooners intercepted quarterback Brock Purdy’s potential game-winning two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining. Purdy, a sophomore, accounted for six TDs in the game, including five passing, and ranks fifth nationally (one spot ahead of Ehlinger) with 344.4 yards of total offense per game while accounting for 27 total TDs on the season.
Texas has dominated the series 14-2, including a 6-1 mark in Ames. The Longhorns have won three straight overall following last season’s 24-10 victory in Austin. Coach Tom Herman is 14-4 as a dog since 2015 at Houston and Texas.
Back Texas as a nice underdog.
|11-16-19||Wisconsin -14 v. Nebraska||Top||37-21||Win||100||13 h 32 m||Show|
Wisconsin still has an outside shot of catching Minnesota atop the Big Ten West, but the Badgers must take care of business over the next two weeks if they have any intention of playing for something meaningful when they meet the Golden Gophers in their season finale. After ending a two-game losing streak by knocking off a Top 25 opponent last week, No. 15 Wisconsin faces the first of two sub-.500 teams on Saturday when it visits Nebraska.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (7-2, 4-2 Big Ten): Taylor ranks third in the country with 1,259 rushing yards and is tied for fifth with 15 rushing touchdowns - both Big Ten-best marks - and needs only 167 more rushing yards over the remainder of the season to pass Herschel Walker (5,596) for the most in FBS history by a player through his junior season. The New Jersey native had been held to 80 rushing yards or fewer in two of his previous three contests before posting his 29th career 100-yard rushing effort - four behind school-record holder Ron Dayne. Senior linebackers Chris Orr (nine sacks - second in the conference) and Zach Baun (7.5, fifth) are the only teammates who rank inside the top five in the conference in sacks.
ABOUT NEBRASKA (4-5, 2-4): Despite missing two games and part of another with a knee injury, sophomore quarterback Adrian Martinez paces the Cornhuskers in rushing (399 yards) and passing (1,492), making him only one of three players from a Power Five conference to lead his team in both categories. Junior receiver JD Spielman amassed 123 receiving yards on six catches against Purdue, including a 42-yard grab that was his seventh reception of at least 40 yards a season - good for the fourth most in FBS.
Wisconsin has rushed for at least 353 yards four times during its six-game winning streak in this series.
Badgers are 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cornhuskers are 5-17-2 ATS in their last 24 home games.
Take Wisconsin in a rout.
|11-14-19||North Carolina +4.5 v. Pittsburgh||Top||27-34||Loss||-110||31 h 11 m||Show|
If Pittsburgh is going to keep alive any hopes of winning the ACC Coastal Division for a second straight season, they'll have to find a way to solve the host North Carolina on Thursday. The Tar Heels have won the last six matchups against the Panthers by a combined 26 points, including 38-35 last season.
"(North Carolina) is probably the best 4-5 team in the country coming off of five losses, total of 19 points, and beat a South Carolina team, beat a Miami team that we had not beat and then lost to Clemson by one point
Pittsburgh is tied atop the Coastal standings in the loss column with Virginia and Virginia Tech, and play the Hokies next week but have already been beaten by the Cavaliers. The Panthers have had a week off to reconnect after the defense held Georgia Tech to 194 yards and used a goal-line stand to help post a 20-10 victory Nov. 2.
North Carolina continued alternating losses and wins for a fifth straight week in its 38-31 setback to Virginia on Nov. 2 despite 353 yards and four TDs from freshman Sam Howell.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (4-5, 3-3 ACC): Howell won his fourth ACC Rookie of the Week Award with 350 yards of total offense - the most by a Tar Heels quarterback against Virginia - and with four TD passes coming from at least 34 yards out. Howell's 26 touchdown passes tie former Miami star Brad Kaaya for third-most in ACC history by a freshman in a season, and Howell is the only quarterback in the FBS that has thrown multiple touchdown passes in nine consecutive games.
ABOUT PITTSBURGH (6-3, 3-2): The Panthers overcame three first-half turnovers (two interceptions) and a blocked punt as Kenny Pickett threw for 204 yards and a touchdown and Vincent Davis took a wildcat snap 61 yards for a score.
North Carolina leads the series 10-3.
Take the points with the better QB on the road in the Tar Heels.
|11-11-19||Seahawks +6 v. 49ers||Top||27-24||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
The San Francisco 49ers find themselves as the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team, but that lofty standing will be put to the test on Monday night against potential league Most Valuable Player candidate Russell Wilson and the visiting Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are also undefeated in one respect, as they have won all four games away from the Emerald City.
Jimmy Garoppolo threw for a personal-best four touchdowns and eclipsed 300 yards for the third time in his career as San Francisco improved to 8-0 for the time since 1990 with a 28-25 victory over Arizona on Oct. 31 in a game they were lucky to win.
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (7-2): Tyler Lockett erupted for a career-high 13 receptions for 152 yards and two touchdowns and fellow wideout DK Metcalf had personal bests in catches (six) and receiving yards (123) and a score versus the Buccaneers. Seattle added to its passing game with the addition of Josh Gordon off waivers from New England.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (8-0): Tight end George Kittle's availability for Monday's game is in jeopardy after an MRI exam revealed damage to both his knee and ankle after he was hit awkwardly on the first play of the contest against Arizona. Kittle did not practice on Friday.
Seahawks LB Bobby Wagner, who had a team-high 11 tackles last week, has four interceptions and three sacks in his past six games versus the 49ers.
Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. 49ers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC and are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC West. Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings and are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in San Francisco.
I’ll take the points with Seattle in a game they can win outright.
|11-10-19||Vikings v. Cowboys -3||Top||28-24||Loss||-114||34 h 57 m||Show|
The Dallas Cowboys are back atop the NFC East, rebounding from a three-game losing streak to post lopsided victories over a pair of division opponents, including a 37-18 victory at the New York Giants on Monday night. The Cowboys hope to keep the momentum going Sunday night when they host the Minnesota Vikings, who had a four-game winning streak snapped last week.
It's also a pivotal game for Minnesota, which is one game behind first-place Green Bay in the NFC North and holding down the final playoff slot with four of its last six at home, where the Vikings are 4-0.
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-3): Kirk Cousins threw for 220 yards and three touchdowns last week, but he still has not guided Minnesota to a victory when trailing entering the fourth quarter, falling to 0-10-1 in such games after Kansas City kicked two field goals in the final 2 1/2 minutes last week. Cousins could be without one of his top targets as Adam Thielen aggravated a hamstring injury in Sunday's loss and did not practice all week. His absence would mean a heavy workload for Dalvin Cook, who has rushed for nine touchdowns and an NFL-leading 894 yards.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-3): Dak Prescott is averaging 297.5 yards and completing 69.6 percent of his passes -- both career highs -- as he presides over an offense that tops the NFL with 436.8 yards per contest. Amari Cooper, the team leader with 701 yards and six touchdown receptions, was diagnosed with a bruised knee that prevented him from practicing Thursday but he is expected to play Sunday. Dallas also is expected to lean on the ground game as Ezekiel Elliott has rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, including 139 on 23 carries last week against the Giants. The Cowboys rank fifth in the league, surrendering an average of 17.8 points.
Minnesota is winless in its last 10 road games (0-9-1) versus teams with a winning record.
The Vikes have lost three road games this year to Chicago, Green Bay and last week in Kansas City — all by at least three points. The offense will also be without Adam Thielen as Kirk Cousins and his 15-26-2 career road record and 1-6 record versus the Cowboys could struggle in primetime.
Let’s back the Cowboys at home.
|11-10-19||Dolphins +13 v. Colts||Top||16-12||Win||100||30 h 43 m||Show|
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been a limited participant in practice this week as he attempts to limp his way back into the lineup for Sunday's game against the visiting Miami Dolphins. Brian Hoyer is waiting in the wings should Brissett be unable to play after sustaining a sprained MCL in his left knee during last Sunday's 26-24 loss to Pittsburgh.
Hoyer fared well in relief with three touchdown passes against one interception last Sunday for the Colts, who can move into a tie with idle Houston for first place in the AFC South with their seventh victory in the last eight meetings with the Dolphins. Miami tasted victory for the first time this season with a 26-18 win over the New York Jets on Sunday, but rookie head coach Brian Flores' club is now tasked with attempting to prevent a franchise high-tying 11th straight road loss (2006-08).
Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick said after he threw for a season-high 288 yards and three touchdowns versus the Jets.
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (1-7): Kalen Ballage, who has rushed for a touchdown in two of his last four contests, is expected to see an expanded role in Miami's 30th-ranked offense after Kenyan Drake was traded to Arizona and fellow running back Mark Walton was suspended four games for violating the NFL conduct and substance abuse policy. Wideout DeVante Parker has reeled in a touchdown reception in four of his past five games while tight end Mike Gesicki emerged for career-high totals in catches (six) and receiving yards (95) last week.
ABOUT THE COLTS (5-3): Although there is a question about the identity of the starting quarterback, running back Marlon Mack likely will see plenty of work as he faces Miami's second-worst run defense in the NFL. Mack has totaled at least 85 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games and has rushed for a touchdown in three of his last five home contests. Zach Pascal stepped up with Miami native T.Y. Hilton sidelined with a calf injury, reeling in five catches for a team-best 76 yards against the Steelers while building a rapport with both Brissett and Hoyer.
Flores knows both Brissett and Hoyer very well dating back to their respective days in New England.
Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Colts are 0-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Indianapolis.
Go with the Dolphins to stay inside the number.
|11-10-19||Chiefs -6 v. Titans||Top||32-35||Loss||-105||27 h 42 m||Show|
The Kansas City Chiefs have weathered the storm without their MVP quarterback and expect to have Patrick Mahomes back Sunday when they visit the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have won the past two meetings with the Chiefs and are 6-1 all-time against Kansas City coach Andy Reid.
The Chiefs survived two weeks without their star quarterback, bouncing back from a tough 31-24 loss to Green Bay two weeks ago to claim a thrilling 26-23 victory over Minnesota in Week 9. Before the Week 7 game at Denver in which he dislocated his kneecap, Mahomes was averaging 350.7 passing yards and appeared poised for another big game before the injury knocked him out in the first half against the Broncos.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (6-3): If there’s a silver lining to Mahomes’ two-game absence, it’s that the Chiefs were able to get running back Damien Williams more involved in the offense. Williams rushed for a career-high 125 yards last week, including a 91-yard touchdown run, and Tyreek Hill had six catches for a season-high 140 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City’s defense was gashed on the ground early in the season, but the Chiefs held Minnesota’s powerful ground game to less than 100 yards last week.
ABOUT THE TITANS (4-5): After leading the Titans to wins in his first two starts, Tannehill passed for 331 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in a 30-20 loss at Carolina last week. Tennessee’s 431 total yards last week were a season-high, but three turnovers derailed their bid for a third straight win. The Titans’ defense has been solid but is dependent on takeaways - they have forced 14 turnovers and have at least one takeaway in six straight games.
Chiefs K Harrison Butker leads the NFL with 84 points.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 10 and are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. Titans are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games in November. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Take the Chiefs on the road with QB Mahomes returning.
|11-10-19||Bills +3 v. Browns||Top||16-19||Push||0||27 h 41 m||Show|
It's not a stretch to say that Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams -- nor is it to acknowledge that the Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments. The Bills have a chance to all but bury Cleveland's fading playoffs hopes when they visit the Browns on Sunday in a matchup featuring two quarterbacks drafted in the first round in 2018.
Cleveland, which has played a considerably tougher schedule than the Bills and is mired in a four-game slide after absorbing a 24-19 setback at Denver last weekend.
ABOUT THE BILLS (6-2): Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield despite concerns that he was not pro-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming, but last week he became the fourth quarterback in history with at least 20 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing scores in his first two seasons. Running back Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a touchdown last week on 20 carries -- matching his number of rushing attempts from his previous four games combined. Buffalo's defense ranks third overall (296.3 yards per game).
ABOUT THE BROWNS (2-6): Cleveland has a fairly soft second-half schedule but needs more production from Mayfield, who has not thrown for more than one scoring pass in a game while tossing a league high-tying 12 interceptions. Odell Beckham Jr. became the third-fastest wideout to 6,000 yards last Sunday but he has not found the end zone since Week 2. Running back Nick Chubb ranks fourth in the NFL with 803 yards rushing but could see his touches diminished with former Kansas City running back Kareem Hunt returning from an eight-game suspension. Myles Garrett ranks second in the league with 10.0 sacks for a defense that has limited teams to 216.3 yards passing, but the Browns have been gouged for 141.3 yards rushing per game.
Buffalo is 3-0 on the road while Cleveland has lost all three games at home.
Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Browns are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and are 5-21-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Back the Bills as a road dog.
|11-10-19||Giants -2.5 v. Jets||Top||27-34||Loss||-135||27 h 41 m||Show|
The Big Apple has seen some pretty bad football this season and on Sunday both of the city's culprits will be on display on the same field when the Jets "host" the Giants at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The New York-area teams are a combined 3-14 after both dropped games against division rivals last week, with the Jets seeming to bottom out with a 26-18 setback at previously winless Miami.
The Giants have lost five in a row -- their longest slide since a seven-game skid in 2014 -- after dropping a 37-18 decision to Dallas at home Monday night. Seeing that skid extend to six against a city rival while going into a bye week could make for a long, painful stretch for the Giants, and the sense of urgency is there.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (2-7): Struggling rookie quarterback Daniel Jones had three more turnovers in the loss to the Cowboys and he has eight interceptions and eight fumbles in his eight games (seven starts). Star running back Saquon Barkley has just 92 yards on 33 carries over his last two games, but he's made 14 catches for 146 yards and a touchdown in that span. I look for him to have a big game.
ABOUT THE JETS (1-7): Quarterback Sam Darnold has struggled to take the next step this season, but he's trying take some positives from a relatively solid 27-of-39 performance versus the Dolphins, against whom he threw one interception after getting picked off seven times over the previous two games.
The Jets enter Week 10 ranked last in the NFL in total offense (223.5 yards per game), passing offense (157.3) and scoring (12.0 points per contest).
Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Jets are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Giants are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and get the money on Sunday.
|11-10-19||Falcons v. Saints -13.5||Top||26-9||Loss||-109||27 h 40 m||Show|
The rough start to the season is about to get rougher for the Atlanta Falcons, who travel to face the red-hot New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Saints have won six straight and have star quarterback Drew Brees back from injury and back to his excellent ways.
Prior to last week’s bye, New Orleans put up 510 total yards in a 31-9 victory over Arizona in Brees’ return after missing five games with a thumb injury. More important, their defense continued its dominant play, holding a fifth consecutive opponent to fewer than 260 total yards. That doesn’t bode well for the Falcons, who likely will need to put up a lot of points to win. Atlanta ranks 30th in points allowed, though the offense takes some of the blame because of 15 turnovers, including four games with three giveaways.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-7): Atlanta is also coming off a bye following a 27-20 loss to Seattle in Week 8. Matt Ryan is expected to be back in the lineup after missing the Seahawks game, but Matt Schaub guided the Falcons to season highs for total yards (510) and passing yards (441). Atlanta’s defense has played better the past two weeks, holding the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks to fewer than 400 total yards, but have forced only one turnover in their past six games while committing nine turnovers during that stretch.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (7-1): Brees was sharp in his return, completing 34-of-43 passes for 373 yards with three touchdowns and an interception. Regardless of who has been at quarterback, Michael Thomas has been the focal point of the offense, leading the league in receptions (73) and receiving yards (875). The Saints have not allowed 100 rushing yards in their last five games and haven’t given up more than 235 passing yards during that stretch.
Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win and are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Take the Saints in a rout.
|11-09-19||Iowa State +15 v. Oklahoma||Top||41-42||Win||100||32 h 16 m||Show|
It took nearly two months to happen, but an Oklahoma defense that was quickly becoming a strength of the team finally sprung a leak, and it may have cost Lincoln Riley's squad a shot at the College Football Playoff. After watching the nation's longest road winning streak come to an end a week ago, the eighth-ranked Sooners hope to avoid watching their 14-game home winning streak get snapped Saturday when they host Iowa State.
The Sooners will try to avoid dropping back-to-back games in the same season for the first time since 2014 when they meet the last opponent to beat them at home in the Cyclones, who pulled off a 38-31 upset in Norman in 2017. Iowa State was on the verge of becoming a ranked team before heading into its bye, but lost at home to Oklahoma State on Oct. 26, ending a three-game winning streak.
ABOUT IOWA STATE (5-3, 3-2 Big 12): The Cyclones are averaging 479.5 yards of total offense - nearly 40 yards more than the school-record pace set in 1976 - and are led by sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy, who is ranked third in the nation in passing (Big 12-best 320.9 yards). Sophomore Charlie Kolar ranks fourth among FBS tight ends in receiving yards per game (60.8) and is tied for eighth at the position in touchdown catches (five) - all of which have come in the last five contests. Breece Hall has taken over in the backfield over the last three games, averaging 130.3 yards rushing while scoring all seven of his touchdowns in that span; the seven TDs are tied for the most by a freshman in school history.
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (7-1, 4-1): Jalen Hurts accounted for 491 yards of total offense against the Wildcats to raise his season average to 408.8 yards - a mark that is higher than that of 64 FBS teams. The Houston native also ran a season-high 19 times for 96 yards and three touchdowns last weekend; he has rushed 103 times for 801 yards and 13 TDs, giving him 50 more carries, 418 more yards and eight more rushing touchdowns than anyone else on the roster. Junior CeeDee Lamb ranks 10th in the country with 816 receiving yards, third with a Big 12-best 11 receiving touchdowns and fourth in yards per catch (22.7);
The Sooners haven't forced a turnover in the last four games.
Cyclones are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Sooners are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
I’ll take the points and back Iowa State to be in this game.
|11-09-19||Iowa +9.5 v. Wisconsin||Top||22-24||Win||100||28 h 20 m||Show|
No. 16 Wisconsin looks to stay in contention for the Big Ten West Division title when it hosts 18th-ranked Iowa on Saturday in the battle for the Heartland Trophy. The Badgers cruised to six consecutive victories by an average margin of 38 points before suffering back-to-back road losses, including a shocking 24-23 setback to Illinois, which was a 30-point underdog, and they hope to bounce back from a 38-7 drubbing to No. 4 Ohio State by improving to 7-0 at home in 2019.
ABOUT IOWA (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten): Nate Stanley completed 12-of-26 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown in the homecoming win against Northwestern to overtake Drew Tate (61) for second place on the program's all-time TD passes list with 62. Tyrone Tracy Jr. caught a pair of passes for 88 yards and a touchdown, while Ihmir Smith-Marsette finished with three receptions for 20 yards to become the 42nd player in Iowa history to reach 1,000 career receiving yards with 1,011. Linebacker Kristian Welch has missed the last two games with a leg injury and is questionable for Saturday's clash while All-Big Ten offensive lineman Alaric Jackson could miss due to a knee problem.
The Hawkeyes are ranked third nationally in scoring defense (10.1 points).
Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Badgers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Wisconsin and I’ll gladly back them plus the points.
|11-09-19||LSU +6 v. Alabama||Top||46-41||Win||100||28 h 57 m||Show|
The big-time SEC showdown arrives when top-ranked Alabama hosts second-ranked LSU on Saturday. But the "Game of the Century" tag might need a little tweaking after Ohio State earned the No. 1 spot in the initial College Football Playoff poll with LSU second and Alabama third.
Tagovailoa has passed for 2,166 yards, 27 touchdowns and two interceptions. "His mobility will be the big question, but every day that's improved dramatically." LSU senior quarterback Joe Burrow also is a Heisman contender while passing for 2,805 yards, 30 touchdowns and four interceptions and energizing the team's attack. "We get the best players in space to the guy we want to put them against," Burrow told reporters. "We don't do a lot of things. But we do it out of a lot of different formations."
ABOUT LSU (8-0, 4-0 SEC): Burrow is fueling an attack averaging 46.8 points per game and has completed more than 70 percent of his passes in each game and thrown four or more touchdown passes on five occasions. The Tigers have solid receivers with junior Justin Jefferson (55 receptions, 819 yards and nine scores), sophomore Ja'Marr Chase (43 for 749, nine TDs) and sophomore Terrace Marshall Jr. (22 for 333, seven) combining for 25 scoring catches. Freshman cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has a team-best four interceptions and junior linebacker Jacob Phillips has recorded a team-high 64 tackles for a unit allowing 20 points per game.
ABOUT ALABAMA (8-0, 5-0): Sophomore Mac Jones filled in for Tagovailoa two Saturdays ago against Arkansas and completed 18-of-22 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns. The Crimson Tide continue to make good use of their three star junior wideouts -- Jerry Jeudy has 52 receptions for 682 yards and eight touchdowns, DeVonta Smith has 43 catches for 721 yards and nine scores, and Henry Ruggs III has 26 for 513 and six touchdowns. Junior safety Xavier McKinney (team-high 56 tackles), senior linebacker Anfernee Jennings (48 tackles, four sacks) and junior linebacker Terrell Lewis (team-best six sacks) are leading a defense allowing 15.3 points per game.
Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
In what should be a close game take the points with LSU.
|11-09-19||Illinois +14.5 v. Michigan State||Top||37-34||Win||100||28 h 49 m||Show|
Michigan State looks to snap a three-game losing streak when it hosts Big Ten rival Illinois on Saturday. The Spartans have played three straight teams that were ranked in the Top 10 at the time, losing by a combined 100-17, while the Illini come into the contest on a three-game winning streak.
ABOUT ILLINOIS (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten): Illinois senior linebacker Dele Harding seems to be flying under the radar this season, despite being one of the top tacklers in the country. Coach Lovie Smith was noticeably upset when it was announced that Harding, who is fourth in the country with 106 tackles, didn't make the Butkus Award semifinalist list, yet teammate Jake Hansen did. Hansen, a junior, has 72 tackles and a national-best seven forced fumbles and was part of a contingent of five Big Ten linebackers who were semifinalists for the award.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (4-4, 2-3): The Spartans have been known for their running game for a number of years, but Michigan State is 13th in the Big Ten, averaging 112.9 yards per game on the ground. Redshirt freshman Elijah Collins leads the way with 545 yards but he's dealt with a couple of nagging injuries, and the Spartans' backfield depth took a major hit with Connor Heyward and La'Darius Jefferson entering the transfer portal last month. Against Penn State two weeks ago, Collins was sidelined for a couple series, and Michigan State was forced to go with freshmen Brandon Wright and Anthony Williams to replace him.
Illinois WR Josh Imatorbhebhe has seven touchdown receptions this season, ranking him tied for third in the Big Ten and tied for 24th nationally. Illini DE Oluwole Betiku Jr. ranks fifth in the nation in sacks per game with 1.14 and ninth in tackles for loss at 1.6.
Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Spartans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points and are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Illinois has the horses to hang all day with this average Michigan State team. Take the points with Illinois.
|11-09-19||Kansas State +7 v. Texas||Top||24-27||Win||100||28 h 45 m||Show|
Kansas State got more respect from the College Football Playoff committee than it did from the coaches this week, coming in at No. 16 in the first CFP rankings released on Tuesday while sitting at No. 22 in the Coaches Poll. Unranked in both was Texas, which will be trying to bounce back from another tough loss when it hosts the Wildcats on Saturday.
The Longhorns got last week off to assess what went wrong in the last three games, which includes a pair of losses sandwiched around a 50-48 home win over Kansas. Texas allowed an average of 505 yards in the three games.
ABOUT KANSAS STATE (6-2, 3-2 Big 12): The Wildcats rushed for 342 yards in last week's 38-10 drubbing of Kansas, with quarterback Skylar Thompson's 127 yards and three TDs on the ground leading the way. Thompson owns eight rushing scores during the three-game winning streak, but Kansas State isn't counting on the rushing yards coming as easily this weekend. "We'll have our hands full making sure that we protect Skylar (Thompson)," Klieman told reporters. "We have to be able to run the football some. Are they going to allow us to rush the football like we did last week? Probably not. So, we have to find some ways to be creative and be efficient in the passing game."
ABOUT TEXAS (5-3, 3-2): Keeping the Longhorns in games while the defense struggles is the offense led by quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who was named a semifinalist for the Wuerffel Trophy, which is given annually to the player that best combines exemplary community service with athletic and academic achievement. Ehlinger's achievements on the field include 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions, though four of those picks came in last week's 37-27 setback at TCU. Ehlinger could have another weapon available on offense in freshman running back Jordan Whittington, who suffered a groin injury in the season opener but is back at practice and probable for Saturday.
Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Wildcats are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings and I’ll back them plus the points on the road.
|11-09-19||Florida State v. Boston College -2.5||Top||38-31||Loss||-109||24 h 21 m||Show|
Florida State endured a lopsided loss and a coaching change ahead of its trip to Boston College for an ACC matchup Saturday afternoon. The once-mighty Seminoles fell to 9-12 under Willie Taggart following a 27-10 loss to in-state rival Miami last week, and Taggart was let go as the team tries to salvage something of a third straight subpar campaign.
While the Seminoles are at a crossroads, the Eagles are coming into the matchup with some momentum following a 58-27 runaway win in a record-setting performance at Syracuse last weekend. Boston College set a school mark with 691 yards on offense and its 496 yards on the ground were just shy of a 46-year-old program record.
ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (4-5, 3-4 ACC): The Seminoles' quarterback situation continues to be as undefined as the program itself, with both senior Alex Hornibrook and sophomore James Blackman seeing snaps against Miami. Hornibrook has been the primary passer in the last two weeks and has a completion percentage of 68.9 on the season with only two interceptions in 122 attempts. Junior running back Cam Akers, who leads the ACC with 16 total touchdowns, needs 17 rushing yards to record the second 1,000-yard campaign of his career.
ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (5-4, 3-3): Junior star AJ Dillon led the dominant effort at Syracuse with 242 yards and three TDs on 35 carries. "I always want to be the guy, not in a cocky way or in an ego way," Dillon told the media after the game. "But I feel comfortable with my teammates and my coaches knowing that if we need to get a score you can put the ball in my hands, and I'll do everything I can to get that." The nation's second-leading rusher with 1,286 yards, Dillon needs 17 more to become the first player in school history with 4,000 for a career.
The Seminoles have allowed 35 sacks, tied for the fourth-highest total among FBS teams.
Seminoles are 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Boston College enjoys the home cooking with a big win.
|11-09-19||Penn State v. Minnesota +7||Top||26-31||Win||100||24 h 19 m||Show|
No. 13 Minnesota has not started a season 9-0 in 115 years, and it would need to knock off fellow unbeaten and fifth-ranked Penn State in a mammoth Big Ten matchup Saturday at home to achieve that goal. "This is what college football is all about," Golden Gophers coach P.J. Fleck told reporters. "You've got two 8-0 football teams, two top-13 teams playing at TCF Bank Stadium ... this is what it's all about."
ABOUT PENN STATE (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten): Sophomore quarterback Sean Clifford is second in the Big Ten in passing yards (1,931) and touchdowns (20), four of which came in the win over the Spartans. Freshman Noah Cain leads a fleet of running backs with 350 yards on the ground and six scores, and Franklin indicated Cain should be good to go after suffering an apparent injury versus Michigan State. The nation's second-ranked scoring defense (9.6 points allowed per game) continues to be led by sophomore linebacker Micah Parsons with 57 tackles, while defensive ends Yetur Gross-Matos and Shaka Toney both have a team-high 5.5 sacks.
Golden Gophers sophomore defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr. is tied for second among FBS players with five interceptions - three over the last two games.
Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. Golden Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games and are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Back the points with Minnesota at home.
|11-09-19||Baylor -2.5 v. TCU||Top||29-23||Win||100||24 h 18 m||Show|
Baylor is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 after surviving a scare from West Virginia but is looking at a rough finishing stretch that includes a visit from Oklahoma on Nov. 16 and a date with Texas the following weekend. Another big test is Saturday, when the 10th-ranked Bears visit a TCU team looking for a signature win.
Baylor was ranked 12th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, behind a pair of two-loss SEC teams and one-loss Oklahoma, and coach Matt Rhule is trying to keep his players away from any talk about the playoffs.
The Horned Frogs are the last team to beat the Bears - a 16-9 triumph at Baylor on Nov. 17, 2018 - and remain capable of beating a team like Texas at home but losing at Oklahoma State.
ABOUT BAYLOR (8-0, 5-0 Big 12): The Bears are averaging 36.1 points but showed they can win with their defense after holding West Virginia to 219 yards - 64 in the first half - in last week's 17-14 triumph. Baylor's offense was less impressive against the Mountaineers, but quarterback Charlie Brewer threw for a pair of TDs and is up to 14 touchdowns and three interceptions on the season, with each of the three picks coming in an overtime victory over Texas Tech on Oct. 12.
ABOUT TCU (4-4, 2-3): The Horned Frogs go into the weekend with some uncertainty at quarterback after starter Max Duggan was knocked out in the fourth quarter of last week's loss with a finger injury and backup Mike Collins (abdomen) was injured on the final play of the game. Duggan threw three of his four interceptions last week but is a big part of the ground game as well and led the team in rushing in each of the last three contests.
Baylor special teams recorded nine blocked kicks in the last 13 games.
Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Horned Frogs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games and are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.
Baylor takes this one on the road to stay undefeated.
|11-06-19||76ers v. Jazz -2||Top||104-106||Push||0||8 h 17 m||Show|
The Philadelphia 76ers will have star center Joel Embiid back in the lineup when they visit the Utah Jazz on Wednesday. Embiid served a two-game suspension for his recent tussle with Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns and Philadelphia fell from the ranks of the unbeaten in the second contest, losing 114-109 to the host Phoenix Suns on Monday.
ABOUT THE JAZZ (4-3): Star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell scored a season-high 36 points against the Clippers and is averaging a robust 25.7 points per game. But Mitchell (3.3 assists) and new point guard Mike Conley (3.9) aren't getting the ball inside enough for Rudy Gobert's liking as the 7-foot-2 center is averaging just 10.9 points. That will improve tonight.
This is Philly's third road game in five days, while Utah hasn't played since Sunday in LA. The Jazz are led by Mitchell (25.7-4.7-3.3) and the league's top-defense in terms of points allowed (95.6 per). Utah is back home where the team is 3-0, outscoring opponents on average, 107.7-to-90.7 PPG. Embiid's back but Philly falls for a second straight time.
Tough spot for Philly, so I’ll back the Jazz at home.
|11-06-19||Bulls v. Hawks -2||Top||113-93||Loss||-108||7 h 46 m||Show|
Trae Young is back in the lineup for the Atlanta Hawks and the second-year point guard continues to put on a show. Young returned from a sprained ankle to help the Hawks snap a three-game losing streak Tuesday and he looks for another solid outing on Wednesday against the visiting Chicago Bulls.
Young missed one game due to his ailment and missed all eight of his first-half shots before erupting to score 28 of his 29 points in the second half as well as finishing with 13 assists during a 108-100 home win over the San Antonio Spurs.
The Bulls have lost five of their past six games and suffered a fourth-quarter collapse on Tuesday when they were outscored 38-19 over the final 12 minutes en route to a 118-112 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Atlanta F Jabari Parker moved into the starting lineup due to Collins' suspension and had 19 points and eight rebounds against the Spurs.
Lay the small number with the Hawks.
|11-03-19||Patriots -3 v. Ravens||Top||20-37||Loss||-105||44 h 22 m||Show|
The New England Patriots have torn through the first half of the schedule behind a suffocating defense that has stifled a bevy of inexperienced quarterbacks. The undefeated Patriots already have squared off against four quarterbacks drafted in the first round in 2018 and will face a fifth member from that class when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (8-0): New England leads the league with 19 interceptions and 31 sacks, including five last week, but its run defense showed some cracks by allowing the Cleveland Browns to rush for 159 yards in the 27-13 victory. Tom Brady ended his interception streak at four games last week, throwing for 259 yards and tossing a pair of scoring passes to Julian Edelman, who has 32 receptions over the past four games and has been the one constant in what has been a revolving door at wide receiver. Getting Mohamed Sanu Sr. will help.
The Patriots are 8-1 in the last nine regular-season meetings.
The Pats are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 14 points or less in their previous game, while the Ravens are a poor 2-8 ATS in their last ten following a SU road victory (including 0-2 ATS this year.)
Patriots get my money as my best bet on Sunday Night.
|11-03-19||Packers -3 v. Chargers||Top||11-26||Loss||-125||40 h 28 m||Show|
Two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL square off Sunday when the Green Bay Packers visit the Los Angeles Chargers. Aaron Rodgers looks to lead Green Bay to its fifth straight victory while Philip Rivers will be adjusting to a new play-caller after the Chargers fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt earlier this week.
Green Bay typically travels a lot of fans and figures to have a huge homefield advantage in the diminutive soccer stadium that the Chargers have trouble filling. The Packers, who are 3-0 on the road, are also rolling up the points by averaging 32.5 during the four-game winning streak.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-1): Rodgers (2,324 yards, 16 touchdowns, two interceptions) will have receiver Davante Adams (25 receptions, 378 yards) back on the field after the two-time Pro Bowler was sidelined throughout Green Bay's winning streak with a foot injury.
ABOUT THE CHARGERS (3-5): Rivers, who has passed for 2,315 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season, enjoyed a big game in his last outing against Green Bay when he passed for a career-best 503 yards in a 27-20 loss in 2015. Los Angeles has been unable to get Melvin Gordon on track since he returned from a holdout as the running back has 112 yards on 44 carries in four games.
The Packers have won the past seven meetings and 10 of 11 overall, with the Chargers' lone win occurring in 1984.
Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Chargers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Packers get the west coast win and cover.
|11-03-19||Lions v. Raiders -2.5||Top||24-31||Win||100||40 h 9 m||Show|
The Detroit Lions will try to move back above .500 at the midpoint of the season when they visit the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The Lions bounced back from a three-game losing streak against some of the league's top teams by getting past the New York Giants 31-26 last week.
Oakland lost its last two games -- both on the road -- and is beginning a stretch in which it plays three straight at home, including a Thursday night matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers four days after Detroit leaves town.
ABOUT THE LIONS (3-3-1): The trade deadline was a quiet one for Detroit, which is confident it can remain relevant in the NFC playoff picture over the next two months.
ABOUT THE RAIDERS (3-4): Derek Carr threw for 285 yards and three TDs at Houston last week, and the Fresno State product has seven scoring strikes with only one interception and one sack over his last four games. Oakland has allowed just eight sacks on the year, second fewest in the league, and none over the past three contests. Rookie running back Josh Jacobs leads the league's seventh-ranked rushing attack with 620 yards.
The Lions rank 26th in the league with 3.6 yards per carry and are tied for second-to-last with two rushing TDs.
Lions are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
The Raiders get some home cooking with a win and cover.
|11-03-19||Bears v. Eagles -4||Top||14-22||Win||100||37 h 6 m||Show|
The Chicago Bears have struggled to regain their footing even since their last-second field goal attempt caromed off both the left upright and the crossbar in last season's wild-card game against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bears aim to rebound from yet another costly missed field goal in their most recent contest when they visit the Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
While Chicago attempts to snap a three-game losing skid, Philadelphia answered being outscored 75-30 in losses at Dallas and Minnesota by rushing for three touchdowns in a 31-13 victory over Buffalo on Sunday. Former Bears running back Jordan Howard recorded seasons highs in carries (23) and yards (96) versus the Bills while finding the end zone for the sixth time (five rushing, one receiving) in the last six games.
ABOUT THE BEARS (3-4): Chicago's ever-present kicking woes briefly put Mitchell Trubisky's troubles on the back burner, although the much-maligned quarterback threw for 303 yards and a touchdown pass against Philadelphia on Jan. 6. Trubisky turned the keys over to rookie David Montgomery last week, as the third-round pick out of Iowa State posted season highs in carries (27) and rushing yards (135) while also rushing for a touchdown. The 22-year-old Montgomery picked up 10 first downs on the ground for the Bears, who are near the basement of the league in rushing yards per game (26th), yards per rush (27th) and rushing touchdowns (tied for 25th).
ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-4): Howard rushed for 3,370 yards and 24 touchdowns during his first three seasons with Chicago before being traded to Philadelphia for a conditional sixth-round pick. Carson Wentz kept pace with Seattle's Russell Wilson by tossing a touchdown pass in his 11th consecutive contest on Sunday when he connected with tight end Dallas Goedert late in the second quarter. Alshon Jeffery, who led the way in receptions (four) and receiving yards (64) against the Bills, found the end zone in the wild-card game versus his former team.
Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
The Eagles get the win by at least 7 points.
|11-03-19||Texans v. Jaguars +2||Top||26-3||Loss||-115||34 h 37 m||Show|
The Houston Texans will head to London this week for a Sunday matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars without their defensive leader and with a star quarterback nursing an eye issue. Defensive end J.J. Watt was lost for the season due to a torn pectoral muscle in last Sunday's 27-24 win over the Oakland Raiders, during which quarterback Deshaun Watson was kicked in the eye.
The Texans injury report is particularly ugly this week. Sure, the JJ Watt out of the season news made headlines last Sunday, but Watt is just the beginning. Both starting offensive tackles and their center are all questionable at best for Sunday’s game. Cornerbacks Bradley Roby and Lonnie Johnson are out, as is safety Tashaun Gipson and WR Will Fuller.
The Jags have three wins and a competitive loss in London over the last four seasons, playing well across the pond. Their defense has really stepped up of late and their pass rush (#3 in the NFL in sacks) is likely to be a big problem for Deshaun Watson playing behind a banged up offensive line. The Texans have scored only 54 points in their last four meetings against their divisional rival; 20 or less in every game. With Gardner Minshew behind center, the Jags have scored 24+ four times in their last five games. The Jaguars will be playing overseas for the seventh consecutive season.
Rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew threw for 279 yards and three TDs in the win over the Jets as he seemingly solidifies his role as the starter with veteran Nick Foles (collarbone) set to return in a few weeks. Minshew had 213 passing yards and a TD while running for a team-high 56 yards in the first meeting, a 13-12 win for Houston on Sept. 15.
Texans are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Back the Jags in this divisional matchup in London.
|11-02-19||Pittsburgh -7.5 v. Georgia Tech||Top||20-10||Win||100||17 h 31 m||Show|
First-year Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins was quite relieved after his team stunned Miami (Fla.) two weeks ago for his first Atlantic Coast Conference win, but there were no smiles in Pittsburgh after the Panthers blew a golden opportunity to take over first place in the Coastal division last week when the Hurricanes shut them down. The Panthers attempt to rebound Saturday when they visit the Yellow Jackets.
Jordan Mason capped a 141-yard rushing day with a 1-yard touchdown dive in overtime and Tariq Carpenter made the lead stand up with a fourth-down tackle that sealed Georgia Tech’s 28-21 win over Miami (Fla.) on Oct. 19. Georgia Tech scored on a fumble recovery and a fake punt in the first half, then largely turned the game over to Mason, who ran for 91 yards after halftime.
Pitt remained one-half game behind both Virginia and North Carolina (3-2) after settling for four field goals by Alex Kessman in a 16-12 home loss to the Hurricanes last weekend - the sixth consecutive game the Panthers have played that has been decided by one score.
ABOUT PITTSBURGH (5-3, 2-2 ACC): The Pitt defense, which ranks among the nation's top 25 units in no fewer than seven defensive categories, was stellar once again holding the Hurricanes to 208 yards.
ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (2-5, 1-3): Mason has recorded back-to-back 100-yard rushing games (106 against Duke) after not surpassing the 100-yard mark in the first 18 games of his career. The Yellow Jackets season-high point total against Miami pushed their scoring average to 18.1 - 119th among 130 FBS schools - and they average a mere 315 yards per game - good for 118th in FBS.
Pitt gets the road cover.
|11-02-19||Utah -3 v. Washington||Top||33-28||Win||100||16 h 29 m||Show|
No. 10 Utah is enjoying a dominating defensive stretch as it visits Washington on Saturday in Pac-12 play. The Utes haven't allowed a touchdown in their last two games and have outscored opponents by an impressive 146-23 during a four-game winning streak.
Utah outgained California 473-83 in last Saturday's 35-0 victory for its second shutout of the campaign and coach Kyle Whittingham admits he is impressed with the defense unit.
ABOUT UTAH (7-1, 3-1 Pac-12): Senior Tyler Huntley is completing a stellar 73.1 percent of his passes for 1,778 yards and 10 touchdowns against just one interception and he is the fifth quarterback in program history to top 6,000 career yards with his total sitting at 6,037. Senior running back Zack Moss (728 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns) set records for career rushing touchdowns (33) and career 100-yard games (15) against Cal and he also holds the career rushing yardage mark of 3,379. The defense is allowing just 10.2 points per game.
ABOUT WASHINGTON (5-3, 2-3): Junior quarterback Jacob Eason has thrown three or more touchdown passes in four different games and has passed for 1,981 yards, 16 touchdowns and three interceptions. But I look for him to have problems here vs. this defense.
Utah gets the big Pac-12 win.
|11-02-19||Georgia v. Florida +6||Top||24-17||Loss||-105||16 h 5 m||Show|
The inside track to the SEC East Division title is at stake when No. 6 Florida and No. 7 Georgia meet on Saturday in Jacksonville, Fla., and if recent series history is a guide, the team that rushes for the most yards will win the rivalry contest. The team that has won the rushing battle has won this matchup each of the past 13 years, which could be good news for a Georgia squad that has relied on the SEC’s top running game to overcome a slumping passing attack.
Both teams were off last week, and the Gators looked to get healthy as graduate transfer linebacker Jon Greenard and senior defensive end Jabari Zuniga are expected to return from ankle injuries.
Florida has excelled on offense through eight games, averaging 419.6 total yards while scoring 32.5 points per game.
ABOUT GEORGIA (6-1, 3-1 SEC): Junior running back D’Andre Swift fronts the ground attack, leading the conference in rushing yards per game (107.7) and on the season has 752 yards with seven touchdowns.
ABOUT FLORIDA (7-1, 4-1 SEC): Since taking over at quarterback for the injured Feleipe Franks, junior Kyle Trask has passed for 1,351 yards and 13 touchdowns - four in a Oct. 19 victory over South Carolina - while completing 67.1 percent of his passes.
This game stays close so take the points with Florida.
|11-02-19||NC State v. Wake Forest -7.5||Top||10-44||Win||100||13 h 34 m||Show|
No. 22 Wake Forest continues a lengthy stay at home when it takes on visiting North Carolina State on Saturday in an ACC matchup. The Demon Deacons will be playing their third straight game at their home in BB&T Field and are coming off a bye week, making for a stretch that sees them go more than 40 days between road games.
They bounced back from their first loss of the season with a 22-20 win over Florida State on Oct. 19, as Nick Sciba's fifth field goal with 4:18 left proved to be the difference. Sophomore quarterback Sam Hartman stepped in for an injured Jamie Newman (shoulder) and threw for 308 yards in the win, and the backup could see some action again in this one, although Newman has been throwing. The Wolfpack is also rested following a bye week of its own, which came on the heels of a 45-24 loss at Boston College.
Wake Forest won the last two meetings, including a 27-23 triumph at N.C. State last year in which Newman threw a game-winning TD with 30 seconds left.
Lay the points with Wake Forest at home.
|11-02-19||Michigan -21 v. Maryland||Top||38-7||Win||100||13 h 30 m||Show|
No. 15 Michigan looks to build on its biggest win of the season when it visits Maryland on Saturday in Big Ten play. The Wolverines rolled up 303 rushing yards en route to an emphatic 45-14 win over then-No. 7 Notre Dame 45-14 to end an eight-game losing skid against Top 10 teams and hope for another offensive explosion against the Terrapins, who they have outscored 164-34 over their last four meetings.
Maryland's season took another turn for the worse following a 52-10 loss to No. 13 Minnesota. The Terrapins, who have dropped five of their last six games since entering the national rankings after a 63-20 win against Syracuse, hope to turn their fortunes around by knocking off the Wolverines for the first time since a 23-16 victory in 2014.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten): Shea Patterson picked up where he left off in the second half of the Penn State game as he threw for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Notre Dame in the driving rain. Sophomore Hassan Haskins led the ground attack with a career-high 149 yards on 20 carries, while Zach Charbonnet added 74 and a pair of touchdowns - his ninth of the season - to equal the program record for most rushing TDs by a freshman.
ABOUT MARYLAND (3-5, 1-4): Tyrrell Pigrome went 6-of-9 for 43 yards before suffering a left knee injury in the loss to Minnesota and is questionable for Saturday's clash.
Michigan has held four of its last five opponents to fewer than 65 rushing yards.
Michigan gets it in a rout.
|10-27-19||Chargers +4 v. Bears||Top||17-16||Win||100||38 h 43 m||Show|
The Los Angeles Chargers are watching their season slide away and look to halt a three-game losing streak when they visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday. They won't find any sympathy from the Bears, who have dropped back-to-back contests and also feel they are in a must-win situation.
Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is receiving heat for offensive issues that have led to the club being ranked 30th in the NFL in total offense (263.7 yards per game) and 26th in scoring (18.7 points). The Bears also have a sagging running attack that ranks 28th (70 yards per game), with lead back David Montgomery (231 yards) averaging a meager 3.3 yards per carry.
The Bears have allowed an average of 30 points during their consecutive losses, so perhaps that helps Los Angeles' offense, which is averaging just 16.7 points during the skid. Philip Rivers has topped 300 yards in each of the last two games and five times overall this season as he already is more than halfway toward notching his 11th career 4,000-yard season.
Chargers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
In a close game I’ll take the points.
|10-27-19||Seahawks -6.5 v. Falcons||Top||27-20||Win||100||38 h 40 m||Show|
Matt Ryan's streak of 154 consecutive starts is in serious jeopardy as the downtrodden Atlanta Falcons host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Ryan departed last week's loss to the Los Angeles Rams with a sprained right ankle, which has prevented him from practicing this week.
Veteran backup Matt Schaub is being prepared to fill in for Ryan but hasn't started a game since 2015, when he twice received the call for Baltimore.
Atlanta has lost five straight games as it faces a Seattle team that lost to the Ravens last week, ending its three-game winning streak. Russell Wilson is tied for the NFL lead with 15 touchdown passes and likely is salivating at the prospect of facing a Falcons defense that has allowed an average of 41.3 points over its last three contests.
Wilson has been intercepted just once while throwing for 1,945 yards and running back Chris Carson is providing good production with 569 yards on the ground. But the defense - which is allowing 25.1 points and 357 yards per game - hasn't always been sturdy, so Seattle acquired safety Quandre Diggs from Detroit on Tuesday.
Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and are 37-17-3 ATS in their last 57 games following a straight up loss. Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
I got the Seahawks in a rout.
|10-27-19||Jets v. Jaguars -6||Top||15-29||Win||100||38 h 32 m||Show|
The Jacksonville Jaguars figured out how to force turnovers last week, snapping a two-game slide and giving the defense some confidence heading home to face the New York Jets on Sunday. The Jets, who turned the ball over six times in a 33-0 home loss to the New England Patriots on Monday, need to tighten things up on offense against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville forced one turnover in its first six games but got the Cincinnati Bengals to cough up the ball four times during a 27-17 triumph last week.
The Jets were feeling good about themselves after knocking off the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6 but crashed back down to earth hard against the Patriots, and consistency is an issue.
Jags rookie QBGardner Minshew II owns 10 TD passes and two interceptions in six starts and is completing 61.5 percent of his passes.
Jets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 8. Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Jets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Jags get the victory by at least a touchdown.
|10-27-19||Eagles v. Bills -1.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-115||37 h 22 m||Show|
The road hasn't been kind for the Philadelphia Eagles, who have dropped the first two legs of a three-game trek and surrendered an average of 31.5 points in four contests away from the City of Brotherly Love. The Eagles have a tough road ahead on Sunday when they visit the Buffalo Bills, who are off their best start since the 2008 season.
Turnovers have led to slow starts in each of the last two games for the Eagles, who have been outscored 51-17 in the first two quarters in losses to Minnesota and Dallas. Mistakes need to be held to a minimum versus Buffalo, which features the third-ranked overall defense (292.7 yards per game) and fourth-ranked passing defense (201.3).
Buffalo boasts the NFL's seventh-ranked rushing attack (135.8 yards per game) with the ageless Frank Gore (4.5 yards per carry) leading the way, although bruising quarterback Josh Allen hasn't been shy about chipping in with his legs either. Allen, who has seven rushing touchdowns in his past eight home games, relied on his arm last Sunday while completing 10 of his 11 passes in the second half. John Brown reeled in one of Allen's two touchdown passes versus the Dolphins, and the speedy wideout has at least five receptions and 69 yards receiving in five of his team's six games this season. Brown has three touchdown catches in three career games against Philadelphia.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Back the Bills at home.
|10-27-19||Broncos v. Colts -4.5||Top||13-15||Loss||-105||37 h 21 m||Show|
The Indianapolis Colts solidified their position atop the AFC South by knocking off the Houston Texans last week and are quietly establishing themselves as a solid candidate to steal the AFC from the New England Patriots. The Colts will try to push their winning streak to three in a row when they host the Denver Broncos on Sunday.
Indianapolis bullied its way to wins over Kansas City and Houston in the last two weeks and is realizing that life after Andrew Luck is possible with Jacoby Brissett emerging as an elite quarterback.
The Broncos are still looking for their own game changer under center and sit 29th in the NFL in scoring (average of 16 points) and 26th in average passing yards (207.9) behind veteran Joe Flacco. He has been sacked 23 times - tied for fourth in the league. Denver is going for addition by subtraction on offense after trading veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to the San Francisco 49ers and that’s not a good idea.
Brissett started 15 games in place of an injured Luck in 2017 and totaled 13 TD passes but is emerging as much more of a threat in the passing game after being firmly entrenched as the starter and is fourth in the NFL with 14 TD passes in 2019. Brissett enjoyed the best game of his career with 326 yards, four TDs and no interceptions in last week's 30-23 triumph over Houston.
Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Broncos are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings and are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Indianapolis.
The Colts are my top play of the week and crush the Broncos on Sunday!
|10-26-19||Notre Dame v. Michigan +1.5||Top||14-45||Win||100||45 h 35 m||Show|
Seventh-ranked Notre Dame looks to stay in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot when it visits No. 20 Michigan on Saturday. The Fighting Irish bounced back from their 23-17 loss to ninth-ranked Georgia with three consecutive wins, including a 30-27 victory over USC on Oct. 12, to stay in the mix for their second consecutive playoff appearance, and they hope to add a road victory over a ranked opponent to their resume by taking down the Wolverines for the third straight time in the storied rivalry.
Michigan fell behind by 21 points to No. 6 Penn State before mounting a comeback that ultimately fell short when Ronnie Bell dropped a pass in the end zone on 4th-and-goal with 2:01 remaining, which would have potentially sent the game to overtime.
The Wolverines are 1-12 against top 10 teams under coach Jim Harbaugh, and hope to make a breakthrough after an encouraging second half against the Nittany Lions by knocking off Notre Dame for the first time since 2013.
Shea Patterson had his best game of the season as the senior quarterback completed 24-of-41 passes for 276 yards and rushed for a touchdown, as the Wolverines finished with 417 total yards in the 28-21 loss to Penn State. I’ll look for Michigan to keep the offense going after last week’s 2nd half.
Michigan has won 12 consecutive home games and I’ll back them here.
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